Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/13/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS LITTLE ROCK AR

823 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...

A LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HERE AND
THERE...IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE ARKANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER
AS OF 8PM. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION AND CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS ARE FAVORING A NOTABLY SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS
LINE OF CONVECTION. AS SUCH...REVAMPED THE POP GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS SLOWER TIMING WHICH IS EVEN SLOWER THAN THE FORECAST UPDATE
SENT OUT EARLIER THIS EVENING. DO NOT HAVE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 50
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES MAKING IT TO THE LITTLE ROCK METRO AREA
BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT WILL HAVE PROLONGED LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
POPS IN THE WEST.

LEFT THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AS IS FOR NOW SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015/

AVIATION...
FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THE LATEST THINKING WITH REGARD TO THE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHIELD...FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT.
LIFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

HAVE CONTINUED TO SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AROUND THE STATE
TODAY...WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS EXTREME SE
ARKANSAS. BREEZY SE WINDS ARE BEING SEEN AROUND THE STATE...AND
TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POP UP AROUND THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...HOWEVER SB
CAPE VALUES ARE STILL 500 J/KG OR LESS. LIMITED SB CAPE COMBINED
WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.

HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...WITH THE FIRST ROUND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE HIRES AND MORE COARSE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECPITATION FURTHER TO THE WEST. IN FACT THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS MUCH OF ARKANSAS MISSING OUT
COMPLETELY ON THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. ALSO OF
CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...AS WINDS SHOULD BE JUST BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM OVERNIGHT...WITH READINGS DROPPING VERY
LITTLE. MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE NEAR DIURNAL AS THIS SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED QUITE A BIT. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
EARLY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST TO ROUND
OUT THE SHORT TERM AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ARKANSAS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A NEW STORM SYS WL BE PASSING WELL N OF AR ON WED...WITH A SWD
TRAILING CDFNT PUSHING E OF THE FA. A FEW SHOWERS WL LINGER OVR SERN
AR EARLY WED...OTHERWISE COOLER AND DRIER CONDS WL PREVAIL.

A WEAK UPR LVL SYSTEM WL TRACK EWD ACRS THE AREA THU NGT AND EARLY
FRI...WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING IT. TEMPS WL
BEGIN TO SLOLY MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS EWD...WITH LGT S/SWLY WINDS RETURNING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 72 65 70 46 / 10 40 100 60
CAMDEN AR 77 67 69 44 / 20 50 100 20
HARRISON AR 70 63 65 42 / 20 100 100 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 67 68 44 / 20 80 100 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 66 69 45 / 10 50 90 40
MONTICELLO AR 77 68 72 48 / 10 20 100 40
MOUNT IDA AR 74 66 68 42 / 20 100 100 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 71 63 69 44 / 10 80 100 50
NEWPORT AR 72 64 71 47 / 10 20 100 60
PINE BLUFF AR 75 66 71 46 / 10 30 100 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 74 66 67 43 / 20 100 100 30
SEARCY AR 72 65 70 44 / 10 40 100 50
STUTTGART AR 73 66 71 47 / 10 20 100 50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LITTLE ROCK AR

528 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.AVIATION...
FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THE LATEST THINKING WITH REGARD TO THE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHIELD...FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT.
LIFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 12Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST TO ROUND
OUT THE SHORT TERM AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ARKANSAS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A NEW STORM SYS WL BE PASSING WELL N OF AR ON WED...WITH A SWD
TRAILING CDFNT PUSHING E OF THE FA. A FEW SHOWERS WL LINGER OVR SERN
AR EARLY WED...OTHERWISE COOLER AND DRIER CONDS WL PREVAIL.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 74 65 70 46 / 10 50 100 60
CAMDEN AR 77 67 69 44 / 20 60 100 20
HARRISON AR 71 63 65 42 / 20 90 100 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 67 68 44 / 20 80 100 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 66 69 45 / 10 50 90 40
MONTICELLO AR 76 68 72 48 / 10 30 100 40
MOUNT IDA AR 74 66 68 42 / 20 90 100 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 73 63 69 44 / 10 80 100 50
NEWPORT AR 74 64 71 47 / 10 30 100 60
PINE BLUFF AR 76 66 71 46 / 10 40 100 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 74 66 67 43 / 20 90 100 30
SEARCY AR 74 65 70 44 / 10 40 100 50
STUTTGART AR 76 66 71 47 / 10 30 100 50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

845 AM MST FRI DEC 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...GENERATING COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CLEAR AND
COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS FORECAST
TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY GENERATING
SOME OF THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON.

.DISCUSSION... A SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER MORNING THIS MORNING WHEN
COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION
OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND WINDS HAS KEPT LOWS UP IN THE 50S...AND
EVEN SOME LOW 60S ACROSS SE CA. THE SFC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER...AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO SE CA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN AZ AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL RUN IS STILL NOT SHOWING ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR CWA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...ONCE THE SFC COLD FRONT PASSES...UNDER THE AREA OF BEST
DIFFLUENCE/HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS THAT HAD BEEN BLOWING IN THE IMPERIAL/EL CENTRO AREA
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE DIMINISHED...BUT MORE GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE
CA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT.
AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS CONCERNED...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS...INHERITED FORECASTS ARE HOLDING UP WELL.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A STRONG PACIFIC TROF AND COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO APPROACH AZ THIS
MORNING. AROUND MIDNIGHT THE FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM LAS VEGAS WEST
TO SANTA BARBARA AND IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AROUND NOON THEN INTO PHOENIX AT 3 PM FRI. VERY NOTICEABLE
AND ABRUPT COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS PEAKING
TO 40 MPH IN SPOTS. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR A LARGE PART
OF SOUTHEAST CA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...THURSDAY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEATHER
BALLOON SOUNDINGS ALONG THE WEST COAST PAINTED A PICTURE OF A
RELATIVELY DRY SYSTEM. HOWEVER DESPITE THESE INITIAL LOOKS...THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ VERY
POWERFULLY...DYNAMICALLY...OR SUCCINCTLY PUT...GENERATING A
CATASTROPHE ALOFT. A STRONG VERTICAL MOTION FIELD WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...AND WILL
WRING OUT THE AIRMASS PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
EAST OF PHOENIX IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...INCLUDING EFFICIENT
UPSLOPE PRECIP. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO 5500 FEET BY MIDNIGHT IN
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...THEN NEAR 5000 FEET SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE DRIER. ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
ABOVE THE POPULATION CENTERS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. UNFORTUNATELY
FOR SOUTHEAST CA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...RAIN SHADOW EFFECTS
FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP.

THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO BY
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY DRIFTING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX AREA...AND INTO
MOST OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

SUNDAY...

CLEARING SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

MONDAY...

ANOTHER COLD PACIFIC TROF IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE REGION
MONDAY RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX
EASTWARD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND PROVIDE
SOME OF THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON. FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE A POSSIBILITY IN MANY DESERTS LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS STARTING LATE THIS MORNING AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH CEILINGS
MOSTLY REMAINING ABOVE FL150 THROUGH 00Z BUT WITH SOME SCATTERED
CUMULUS FL050-070 AFTER 16Z. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS AROUND
6-7K FEET TONIGHT WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY
STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE PHOENIX TERMINALS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY REMAINING ABOVE 15K
FEET. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE STARTING LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A
COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS AFFECT THE REGION. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX
IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH EVERY OTHER DAY STAYING PRECIP FREE. THE
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER HUMIDITIES WITH MINIMUM
AFTERNOON VALUES ONLY FALLING INTO A 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
AFFECTING THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR CAZ032-033.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ030.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

915 AM PST FRI DEC 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD...WINDY WEATHER WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
SHOWERS MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THEN FAIR AND WARMER OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH BRINGS MORE GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOL BUT DRY WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...MOSTLY OVER AND WEST
OF THE MTNS. WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST AND IS CURRENTLY
PEAKING WITH 65 MPH WINDS ACROSS THE MTN RIDGES OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN
DIEGO COUNTIES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORTED WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 66
MPH IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE HIGHEST GUST WAS 52 MPH IN
THE PAST HOUR.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM.
WHILE SHOWERS WILL NOT NECESSARILY INCREASE IN NUMBER...STRONGER
DYNAMIC FORCING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL GENERATE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH ONE INCH. ELSEWHERE...RAIN TOTALS WILL BE 0.20-0.50 INCH
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...0.50-1.00 INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LESS
THAN 0.10 INCH IN THE DESERTS. THE SNOW LEVEL IS CURRENTLY 5500-6500
FT. THIS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4500-5500 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EVENING. AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FT...1 TO
3 INCHES BETWEEN 6000-7000 FT...AND A TRACE TO 1 INCH AT 4500-6000
FT.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. WINDS ARE
PEAKING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PEAK
ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS...AND COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS BY EARLY SAT MORNING. DRY
WEATHER WITH MARGINALLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR SAT AND
SUN UNDER A WEAK TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO AGAIN NOT EXPECTING LARGE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500-5500 FT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. COOL BUT DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WARMING AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

.AVIATION...
111640Z...CURRENTLY...A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH BKN-SCT CLOUDS IN THE 2000-8000 FT MSL LAYER...WITH
PRIMARILY UNRESTRICTED VIS EXCEPT FOR MTN OBSCURATION OF THE COASTAL
SLOPES. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THROUGH 2200-12/0000 UTC...WITH
MERGING CLOUD DECKS IN THE 2000-15000 FT MSL LAYER AND EMBEDDED ISOL
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...LOCAL VIS AOB
1 SM...SMALL HAIL AND STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. CB TOPS TO 25000 FT MSL.
MTN OBSCURATION OF COASTAL SLOPES CONTINUING. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
DIMINISHING 12/0000-1200 UTC...WITH MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED VIS EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLE GROUND FOG IN SOME OF THE VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS.

STRONG W TO NW WINDS 15-30 KT WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT OVER MTN
RIDGES...THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES/CANYONS...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND
INTO ADJACENT DESERT AREAS WILL CREATE MOD-STG UDDFS/LLWS OVER AND E
OF THE MTNS THROUGH 12/0300 UTC. ALSO...WINDS AT THE COAST COULD GET
GUSTY AS WELL...WITH 30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KSAN 2000-12/0200 UTC.
WINDS AND ASSOCIATED UDDFS/LLWS DIMINISHING AFTER 12/0300 UTC.

.MARINE...
840 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS AT SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY SHOW WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 16 KT AND GUSTING TO 21 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FEET.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...AND
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND WRF-EMS SHOWS WIDESPREAD GALE-
FORCE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER
WATERS...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 KT LIKELY. IN ADDITION...A LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL AND STEEP SHORT-PERIOD SWELL...IN ADDITION TO
LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES...WILL CREATE COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 15
FEET THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE STRONG WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS. A GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS. SEE
LAXMWWSGX FOR DETAILS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL LOWER EARLY SATURDAY...
SEAS AT 10 FEET OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BEFORE LOWERING FURTHER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS. SEE THE MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT...LAXMWSSGX...FOR MORE DETAILS.

ANOTHER LARGE 9-11 FOOT NORTHWEST SWELL WITH 8-13 SECOND PERIODS AND
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS...AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.BEACHES...
840 AM...LATEST READINGS FROM THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY SHOWS
NORTHWEST WAVE HEIGHTS/PERIODS AT 9 FEET/14 SECONDS...WITH 7 FOOT/13
SECONDS SEAS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A LARGE LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY AND PRODUCE HIGH SURF THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SURF SETS PEAKING AT 10-12 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY ALONG BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH IN ORANGE COUNTY
AND SETS 11 TO 13 FEET...OCCASIONALLY 15 FEET...SOUTH OF OCEANSIDE
IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ORANGE COUNTY WHILE A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAN
DIEGO COUNTY WHERE DAMAGING SURF COULD OCCUR.

STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH TIDES REACHING 7 FT DURING THE MID-
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE SURF
TO THREATEN BEACHES WITH MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
AND EROSION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...SEE THE HIGH SURF
WARNING...HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...LAXCFWSGX.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEACHES ON
THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING.

ADDITIONAL HIGH SURF IS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH AN 11 FOOT/13 SECOND
NORTHWEST SWELL.

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR
BANNING.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/BEACHES/MARINE...HARRISON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

409 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION. IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS, THERE IS STRONG TROUGH BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA.
IT SHOWS UP WELL N THE IS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IT ALSO LINES
UP WITH A 700-500MB THETA E RIDGE THAT IS BEING PUSHED EASTWARD.
ALONG THE THETA E GRADIENT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING
UP. SOME OF THEM ARE INDICATING STRONG THUNDERSTORM
CHARACTERISTICS, INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MODERATE TO LARGE HAIL,
GUSTY WIND, AND EVEN SOME WEAK ROTATION. THIS ACTIVITY IS OVER THE
WATER, BUT HAS CAUSED A FEW MARINE STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS TO BE
ISSUED. THE HRRR SHOWS THE ACTIVITY GENERALLY HUGGING THE COAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. IT ALSO
SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER THE INTERIOR OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. THE HRRR CURRENTLY SHOWS THE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL DWINDLE FOR A SHORT TIME FOR THE MAINLAND BY AROUND 16Z. BY
ABOUT 21Z, A FEW SHOWERS POP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE MAINLAND. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE COMING TO AN END BY THIS EVENING.

BY TONIGHT, THE 500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CUTOFF AND SITS OVER THE
EASTERN BAHAMAS. A 500MB RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST, BECOMING CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. THE 500MB CUTOFF LOW
BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. AT THIS TIME,
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND
RETROGRADES ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH, AND SLOWLY DEEPENS AS
WELL. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE SFC WIND, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS, AS WELL AS THE
CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE
WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
AT THAT TIME. THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST ALSO WEAKENS. LOOKING AT
THE 700-500MB THETA-E, THE CUTOFF DOES EFFECTIVELY PUSH A RIDGE
BACK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MID DAY. THIS WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

IT AT THIS POINT THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND THE FORECAST
BECOMES TO SEE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS TAKES THE STRONG LOW
OVER THE PLANS AND SHOOTS IT TO THE NORTHEAST, OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKES IT TO SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEFORE STALLING MONDAY NIGHT, AS THEY HAVE BEEN THIS
SEASON SO FAR. IT THEN HAS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER
THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. IT SHOWS
PERIODS OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE ECMWF DOES ALSO TAKE THE LOW ALONG THE SAME COURSE AS THE GFS,
BUT HAS THE FRONT SOMEWHAT MORE ENERGETIC, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. IT SHOWS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHICH COULD GIVE RISE TO SOME SHOWERS ACTIVITY
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. IT THEN HAS ANOTHER SFC LOW
FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
LOW HAS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IT ALSO SHOWS SEVERAL WEAK LOWS COMING OFF THE SOUTH
TEXAS COAST, RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE ECMWF HAS A LOW DEEPENING ENOUGH TO LIFT THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. IT THEN HAS A STRONGER LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD
MEAN HIGHER POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPS BY SATURDAY.

FOR NOW, HAVE ELEVATED POPS TO A CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES GO AGAINST PERSISTENCE, SO IT DOES
LEAVE ROOM FOR HIGHER UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SOLUTION.

ALL IN ALL, SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
STORMS, MAINLY TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS, BUT ALSO POSSIBILITY OF
SEEING SOME RAIN IN THE INTERIOR. ONCE THIS QUIETS DOWN, THERE
WILL BE A FEW DAYS OF QUIET WEATHER.

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
GOING EASTERLY AFTER 14/15Z TODAY ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. KAPF TAF SITE WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL
AROUND 18/19Z WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION...AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES
INLAND.

THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
THEREFORE...THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY AT ALL OF THE TAF STIES.

.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BEGIN TO
QUIET DOWN THIS EVENING. THEN, BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE WIND
WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL
BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH
WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KTS. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE SEAS TO
BUILD IN THE GULF STREAM TO 5 TO 7 FT BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BEING TO IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 82 71 83 75 / 30 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 71 81 74 / 30 10 10 20
MIAMI 84 71 83 75 / 30 10 10 20
NAPLES 83 66 85 69 / 10 10 0 0

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...54/BNB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

325 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE VICINITY NORTH
FLORIDA WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. WEAK
ONSHORE GRADIENT WINDS TODAY WILL PUSH A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS
TOWARDS THE TREASURE COAST...BUT AXIS OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL FINALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THIS
WILL DECREASE THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN BRUSHING OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS. STILL...A SMALL COASTAL SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE
NEEDED ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING FOR THE TREASURE COAST.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS JUST STANDARD FARE WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL AND LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD CONFINE
PATCHY FOG TO THE NORTH INTERIOR.

SAT-SUN...TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF AN UPTICK IN ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS SHIFTS WEST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND
HIGHER PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL INCREASE ONSHORE WINDS LATE
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...BECOMING BREEZY AT THE COAST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP VERTICAL MOTION...SO
ANY SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NEAR-
SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STIFF ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY GENERATE LOW END
BRIEF SHOWERS WITH LIMITED IMPACTS AND QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY BELOW
0.10". GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE
VALUES (10 PERCENT) THROUGH LATE SATURDAY BEFORE COASTAL SHOWERS
EMERGE ON SUNDAY.

MON-THU..LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
MUCH OF THE "COOL SEASON"...THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST RIDGE WILL
DEFLECT MUCH OF THE FRONT`S ENERGY AND SUPPORT OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. LATEST MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING THE
AREA MON. A SQUALL LINE MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO SUN NIGHT...BUT PRE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR MID
DECEMBER...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER. CONSENSUS POPS
REMAIN LOW WITH THIS FRONT...AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE FRONT IS STILL
FORECAST TO STALL OUT AND LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK...SO A
PERIOD OF STRUNG OUT LOW POPS MAY OCCUR AGAIN. ALSO...WITH LITTLE
AIR MASS CHANGE INDICATED...WE WILL CONTINUE HAVING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...
A FEW PATCHES OF FOG WILL OCCUR UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. A SMALL COASTAL SHOWER CHANCE WILL EXIST MAINLY KFPR-
KSUA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR TODAY. SOME STRATUS AND A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY INLAND.

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE VICINITY OF NORTH FLORIDA WILL
MIGRATE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. NORTHEAST WINDS
TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN VEER TO EAST TONIGHT AND
PICK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST TODAY AND WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEN BY AFTERNOON THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS AND START TO DECREASE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE.

SAT-SUN...LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS INTERACTS WITH HIGHER PRESSURES
TO OUR NORTH. THE LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 5
FEET SATURDAY AND 5-7 FEET SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MON-WED...A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE MEANDERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY WHILE
BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE. WINDS WILL FURTHER CLOCK AROUND THE
COMPASS ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 76 63 78 65 / 0 10 10 10
MCO 79 62 82 64 / 0 10 0 0
MLB 77 67 80 70 / 0 10 10 10
VRB 78 67 80 70 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 79 60 81 64 / 0 10 0 0
SFB 79 62 81 65 / 0 10 10 0
ORL 79 64 81 66 / 0 10 10 0
FPR 78 66 80 70 / 20 10 10 10

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....ULRICH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

940 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORTED CONTINUED THIN CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP CAUSE
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. THE MAV AND MET MOS INDICATED FOG. THE 23Z HRRR
CONFINED MOST OF THE FOG WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SREF HAD
SIGNIFICANT FOG PROBABILITIES. WE FORECASTED AREAS OF FOG DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND RAP SHOWED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE SOUTHERN SC
COAST SUNDAY MORNING. LOW STRATUS MAY BE A CONCERN AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL MIDLANDS. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN TO PERSIST. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. MODELS
INDICATE MORE CLOUDINESS SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PWAT AROUND ONE INCH WITH H85 WINDS
REACHING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO USE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
AROUND 60.

WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. UPPER ENERGY WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO OUR WEST ALONG THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION AS BEST UPPER
DYNAMICS SHIFT TO THE NORTH. SURFACE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITIES
STILL PROGGED TO BE WEAK...PRECLUDING THE MENTION OF THUNDER.
WE KEPT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS ONE QUARTER
INCH OR LESS. SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING.
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S
WEST TO LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS STALLING THE FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURN
WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY...CONTINUING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST BY
FRIDAY...ENDING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF DOES NOT MOVE
THE FRONT OFF THE COAST UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...THEREFORE HOLDING
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN LOOKS
MORE PROGRESSIVE...SO WE INDICATED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY.

THE MODELS INDICATE THE BREAK DOWN OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
RIDGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING LOWER
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND AN END TO THE
MILD WEATHER. DRY WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS APPEAR LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE COMING TO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST MVFR FOG TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG MAY BE
MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
PROFILES SUPPORT THIS SHOWING DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN LAST
NIGHT FROM LANCASTER INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. CALM WINDS...DRY
MID LEVELS WILL BE PREVALENT. ONLY ISSUE IS THE STRENGTH OF THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SOME SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SC COAST SUNDAY MORNING. LOW STRATUS MAY BE A CONCERN
AS THEY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL
MIDLANDS. MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS APPEAR PROBABLE AT OGB AND
POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.CLIMATE...
NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY...
CAE...59. AGS...60.

RECORD MAX TEMPS SUNDAY...
CAE...80.
AGS...81.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

647 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FOG MAY OCCUR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THERE WAS AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE MODELS THAT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR. THE HRRR SUGGESTED
THE THICKEST AREAS OF FOG WILL OCCUR FROM LANCASTER COUNTY INTO
THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES COMPARED
TO LAST NIGHT SUPPORTED THE HRRR. CALM WINDS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
SHOULD AID STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN LAST NIGHT AND TONIGHT IS SOME OF THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTED LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS APPEAR LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.CLIMATE...
NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY...
CAE...59. AGS...60.

RECORD MAX TEMPS SUNDAY...
CAE...80.
AGS...81.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

602 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER INTO SUNDAY.
A WEAK FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP CAUSE
AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE LAMP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED WIDESPREAD FOG BUT OTHER MODELS WERE LESS AGGRESSIVE.
THE HRRR INDICATED FOG MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 50 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AS UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CROSSES THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED WARMING TREND FOR
OUR REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY. FAVORED WARMER
TEMPERATURES INDICATED BY THE MAV MOS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
TO OUR WEST ALONG THE FRONT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES
OUR REGION AS BEST UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFT TO THE NORTH. INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO DEVELOP OVER OUR
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEAK FRONT.
SURFACE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA...THUS NO MENTION OF THUNDER.

HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS CONTINUE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS INDICATING THE FROPA THURSDAY AND
THE ECMWF SLOWER...INDICATING THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
LEAD TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...COOLING TO THE 50S FOR FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP CAUSE
AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE LAMP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED WIDESPREAD IFR FOG BUT OTHER MODELS WERE LESS
AGGRESSIVE. THE HRRR INDICATED FOG MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE AND FORECASTED MVFR
FOG EXCEPT THE ADDED MOISTURE AND COOLING IN THE RIVER VALLEY
SUPPORT IFR FOG AT AGS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND 14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS.

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST MAX TEMPS SAT/SUN
CAE...77/79
AGS...78/79

NORMAL MAX TEMPS SAT/SUN
CAE...59/59
AGS...61/60

RECORD MAX TEMPS SAT/SUN
CAE...81/80
AGS...82/81

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1004 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
944 PM CST

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE WITH SHOWER/THUNDER TRENDS
OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS FOG.

AS FAIRLY ENERGETIC MID LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS RAMPED UP THIS PAST EVENING. THIS
HAS BEEN EVIDENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FOCUS FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHILE OTHER AREAS REMAIN ON THE
DRY SIDE. HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THIS LOCATION AND THEN SPREAD
LIKELY AND CAT POPS EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FURTHER INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS WORKING ITS WAY NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA WILL
LIKELY FURTHER INCREASE WITH BOTH SREF AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATING THAT MUCAPE IN UPWARDS OF 300-500 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE
TONIGHT. GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AND HAVE MAINTAINED THUNDER WORDING AND SPREAD IT
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES LATER
TONIGHT.

FOG TRENDS HAVE BEEN ERRATIC ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WHERE THE
MORE DENSE FOG WAS EARLIER TODAY. DENSE FOG STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT DESPITE ONLY A FEW OBS REPORTING UNDER ONE
MILE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I88 JUST NORTH OF
WARM FRONT. EXPECT WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND WHILE THAT OCCURS THE MORE DENSE FOG WILL BE CONFINED
CLOSER TO THE ILLINOIS WISCONSIN BORDER...WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT OBSERVE ONLY PATCHY FOG AT BEST. HOWEVER...EXPECTED SHOWERS
TONIGHT COULD ACTUALLY HELP IMPROVE VIS. NONETHELESS...KEPT THE
ADVISORY GOING GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT/LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS IN PLACE JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONT.

RODRIGUEZ

.SHORT TERM...
325 PM CST

THROUGH SUNDAY...

A VERY SEASONALLY ANOMALOUS WEATHER PATTERN WITH MANY FORECAST
CHALLENGES...RANGING FROM RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DENSE FOG...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE
BEGINNINGS OF HEAVY RAIN.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...THE PROGRESSION OF A STRONG
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
DENSE FOG. AS OF 3PM CST...STILL OBSERVING DENSE FOG WHERE WINDS
ARE STILL EASTERLY. A LAKE BREEZE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME OF THE DENSE
FOG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO MOVE INLAND INTO LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES
NEAR THE LAKEFRONT AND EXPECT THAT THE DENSE FOG MAY STILL PUSH
INLAND TO ARND THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE LAKE WILL IMPEDE THE NWD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NERN IL...WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL HELP WINDS OVER
NCNTRL/NWRN IL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...PUSHING THE WARM FRONT NWD INTO
WISCONSIN OVER THAT AREA.. SO...EXPECT NCNTRL NWRN IL TO SEE
IMPROVING VISIBILITY THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO...WARMER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF
OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE OR NO DIURNAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD SLOWLY...BUT STEADILY
RISE THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S BEFORE LEVELING OFF AND LOCATIONS BTWN I-88 AND I-80
SHOULD SEE TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S. FAR NERN IL...CLOSER
TO THE LAKE...WILL REMAIN COOLER AS WINDS SHOULD BE ONSHORE UNTIL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND THE WARM FRONT SURGES INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

AS THE SFC LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA...FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
SHIFT TO WIND SPEEDS AND THE ONSET OF HEAVIER STEADY RAIN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD SET UP A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...BUT STILL
EXPECT STEADY RAIN WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TO APPROACH THE I-39
CORRIDOR DURG THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THE RAIN TO SLOWLY SPREAD
TO THE EAST AND NOT REACH NWRN INDIANA UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW AS THE SLY PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AND LOW LEVEL
MIXING ARND RAIN AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP
WILL HELP MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 50KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET...SO OCNL HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH
PERSISTENT WARM...MOIST ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH OR EXCEED
RECORD LEVELS...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY PEGGING 65-66F OVER THE
FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH SHOULD PERSIST
WELL INTO SUNDAY EVENING...UNTIL THE STRONG COLD FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

KREIN

.LONG TERM...
310 PM CST

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
DEEPEN AS IT DOES...FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY IN THE EVENING TO WESTERN
WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
WITH THIS PATH. THE KEY RESULTS WILL BE A WINDY AND MILD SUNDAY
NIGHT...AN AXIS OR TWO OF EFFICIENT WARM SEASON-LIKE RAIN MOVING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A WINDY...COOLER...AND SHOWERY MONDAY.

THIS DEEPENING TREND AND THE LOW PATH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
PRESSURE FALLS ENVELOPING THE AREA AND A STOUT SOUTH WIND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR POSSIBLY EVEN RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AS THE WARM SECTOR IS REINFORCED. DEW POINTS SHOULD
BE AROUND 60 DEGREES AS WELL...A REMARKABLE 25 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
OUR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO
SPREAD OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING SUNDAY EVENING AND ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS SHOULD BE IN
THE 1.40 INCH PLUS CATEGORY WHICH IS AT RECORD HIGHS FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR. THAT COMBINED WITH WARM CLOUD PROCESSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FOCUS AT THE NOSE
OF THE 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THAT BEING THE CASE HAVE STILL GONE A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN A WPC/MODEL RAINFALL AMOUNT BLEND FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SUNDAY EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE THAT RAINFALL TOWARD THE
ROCKFORD AREA COULD REACH OR EVEN EXCEED ONE AND A HALF INCHES.
THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS SMALLER ACROSS THE REGION THAN
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO A HIGHLY SATURATED COLUMN AND MUSHY
LAPSE RATES.

HAVE TRENDED A BIT HIGHER WITH POPS FOR MONDAY AS THE THEME OF
SLOWER-IS-BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE VERIFYING INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON OR SO WITH THE
UPPER LOW AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE STILL ACROSS THE AREA. ANY RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED INTO LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SHARP DROP MONDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD LEVEL
OUT IN THE MID 40S...STILL A WAYS ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS LOOK TO GUST
TO 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ADDING A BITE TO THE AIR
ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO RECENT MILD WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL TAKE A
SIMILAR PATH TO ITS PREDECESSOR AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT...WHICH NOW WILL INCLUDE THE TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD AS WELL. THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOOKS TO
SUPPORT COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD SEE
A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH
FORCING DWINDLING THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE LIGHT IF IT
MATERIALIZES. FOR TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK...850MB TEMPERATURES
OF -14C TO -16C LOOK TO SUPPORT AN AIR MASS OF HIGHS STAYING AROUND
OR JUST SHY OF 30 ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES DONT LOOK TO FALL TOO FAR GIVEN THE CONTINUED WIND
FLOW...HOWEVER THAT WIND WILL AGAIN MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER FROM
DECEMBER THUS FAR.

MTF

.CLIMATE...

NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARMEST
LOW TEMPERATURES ON RECORD FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD.

CHICAGO:

RECORD RECORD
HIGH WARMEST LOW

DEC 12 61 (1877) 48 (1968)
DEC 13 67 (1975) 46 (1920)

---------------------------------
ROCKFORD:

RECORD RECORD
HIGH WARMEST LOW

DEC 12 60 (1991) 43 (1968)
DEC 13 57 (1975) 40 (1920)

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VIS IMPROVING OVERNIGHT.
* CHANCE OF SHRA AND SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA OVERNIGHT.
* RAIN DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING...CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.
* EASTERLY WINDS UNDER 10KT SHIFTING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
* STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TAKING PLACE SOUTH OF A MDW/JOT/VYS LINE
CURRENTLY. SHORT TERM HRRR SHOWING THIS IMPROVEMENT SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY MORNING AND HAVE
SHOWN THIS IMPROVEMENT IN THIS UPDATE. MAINTAINED SOME MVFR CIGS/
VIS BUT IS POSSIBLE THAT ONCE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY...VFR WILL
BECOME PREVAILING. CMS

PREVIOUS 00Z DISCUSSION...

WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IL AND FAR NORTHWEST
INDIANA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CIGS/VIS CONTINUING A SLOW TREND
DOWNWARD. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CIGS/VIS DROPPING WILL BE THIS
EVENING UNTIL THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH AND WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF PREVAILING 1/2SM VIS. ENDED
IT A BIT EARLIER WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT TRENDS SHOULD BE
IMPROVING OVERNIGHT AND WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS WILL
OCCUR...TIMING WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATER UPDATES.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLY
LEADING TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD BE ONE WAVE IN THE MORNING...WITH A POSSIBLE
BREAK MIDDAY ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE STEADY/MODERATE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR CIGS DURING THIS TIME...BUT POSSIBLE FOR SOME
IFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
TIMING REFINEMENTS EXPECTED...THEN WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/
SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS SPEEDS/GUSTS STEADILY
INCREASE WITH PREVAILING SPEEDS 15-20KTS AND GUSTS PERHAPS AS HIGH
AS 30KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* HIGH FOR IMPROVING TREND...MEDIUM FOR TIMING.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA OVERNIGHT...LOW FOR TIMING AND DURATION.
* LOW FOR TSRA OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH FOR RAIN DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU SUNDAY MORNING...THEN HIGH FOR WINDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* MONDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. WESTERLY WINDS.

.MARINE...
316 PM CST

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF
THE LAKE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THAT HAS ALREADY MATERIALIZED IN DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE LAKE AND ENVISION THAT ONLY THICKENING TONIGHT. ITS
UNCERTAIN IF THAT WILL CREEP NORTHWARD MUCH TONIGHT WITH THE
BOUNDARY NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT. DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY MUCH OF THE LAKE SHOULD SEE FOG...PROBABLY DENSE IN
AREAS. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY HOLD UNTIL AFTER DARK
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COMBINED WITH EVEN STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD EASE THE THREAT OF DENSE FOG.

INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ALONG THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE AREAS. THESE
SHOULD INCREASE EVEN MORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD AS DEEP
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ACROSS IOWA. A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE
LAKE WILL LIMIT THE MAXIMUM GUST POTENTIAL...BUT A HIGH ENOUGH
SUSTAINED SPEED COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 30 KT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
SPOTTY GUSTS OF GALE FORCE...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 3
AM SUNDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-
LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM TUESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

917 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...
325 PM CST

THROUGH SUNDAY...

KREIN

.LONG TERM...
310 PM CST

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MTF

.CLIMATE...

NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARMEST
LOW TEMPERATURES ON RECORD FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD.

CHICAGO:

RECORD RECORD
HIGH WARMEST LOW

DEC 12 61 (1877) 48 (1968)
DEC 13 67 (1975) 46 (1920)

---------------------------------
ROCKFORD:

RECORD RECORD
HIGH WARMEST LOW

DEC 12 60 (1991) 43 (1968)
DEC 13 57 (1975) 40 (1920)

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...

PREVIOUS 00Z DISCUSSION...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

.MARINE...
316 PM CST

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 3
AM SUNDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-
LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM TUESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

908 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Frontal boundary extending west-east across northern Illinois
providing the main focus for any precipitaiton in the area,
although the main precipitation and instability is developing well
to the west over KS/MO area and should begin to spread into west
central IL by a few hours after midnight. Have already trimmed
pops back for the late evening, but may need to trim back some
more in later updates. Otherwise...very mild and moist conditions
tonight with dewpoints around 60 preventing temperatures from
falling much below that overnight.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Record highs were set in Springfield, Peoria and Lincoln this
afternoon, with Springfield at least reaching 69F and Peoria and
Lincoln reaching at least 67F so far today. A few breaks in the low
clouds along with south winds 8-16 mph and gusts 20-25 mph and a
mild start to the day in the low to mid 50s help set these records.
Temps reached 70F as far north as a Jacksonville to Effingham to
Terre Haute line today while areas north of Peoria reached low to
mid 60s. Record warm lows will likely be set today (Dec 12) as well
and likely again tomorrow (Dec 13). Lows tonight projected to be
close to dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. These readings
are well above normal lows in the lower 20s central IL and mid
to upper 20s southeast IL.

999 mb surface low pressure over northeast NM and north Texas has a
warm front extending ne into se KS, nw MO and northern IL just south
of I-80 where fog lingers near this boundary. Fog lifted over
northern CWA by midday though broken to overcast low clouds lingered
over central and southeast IL though ceilings lifting to MVFR 1-3k
ft and even VFR above 3k ft. HRRR keeps brunt of fog, including
dense fog, north of central IL tonight as warm front lifts slowly
north toward the WI/IL border by early Sunday morning, while surface
low deepens to 994 mb over the eastern KS/OK border by 15Z/9 am
Sunday. Will have 20-40% chance of showers arriving over western
half of CWA during this evening, then pops increase to likely to
categorical during overnight over IL river valley with isolated
thunderstorms possible west of the IL river by overnight per SPC
day1 outlook. Eastern IL east of I-57 will likely stay dry much of
tonight aside of isolate light rain showers later near I-57.
Rainfall amounts tonight will range from a tenth to quarter inch
over IL river valley and less than a tenth inch along and east of I-
55, with little or no rain tonight from I-57 east. SSE winds 5-15
mph this evening to increase to 10-20 mph during overnight as low
pressure deepens and approaches the Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Models in somewhat better agreement with timing of the pcpn coming
weather system, but still seeing differences where operational ECMWF
is more aggressive and operational NAM is slowest. That puts the GFS
and the Canadian in the middle. Models do look very similar with the
timing of the sfc and upper level fields and features, so have some
confidence in this forecast. Pcpn should be ongoing in the west at
the beginning of tomorrow morning and then continue to move eastward
across the CWA through the day. Southeast parts of the CWA will be
the last to see pcpn and probably will not until sometime in the
late afternoon. Rain should also be moderate to heavy at times and
this will continue into Sun night. Overall QPF amounts with this
system have decreased over the last several days, but looks like now
that over an inch to just over 1.5 inches will be possible west of I-
55, with highest amounts northwest of the Illinois river. Amounts
less than an inch will be likely east of I-55 toward the Indiana
border. Once the low pressure area and upper level system pulls
north into the Great Lakes region, pcpn should come to an end across
the area. Wrap around moisture will keep clouds and lighter pcpn
over the CWA on Monday. But after this, dry weather and decreasing
clouds are expected for Mon night and Tue.

Temps will remain warm Sunday and possible that record highs could
be set again, like today. Temps will decrease for Mon and Tue, but
will still remain above normal for middle Dec. Overnight lows will
also be above normal but be on the decrease from Sun night into Mon
night.

After a brief break in the pcpn with flow remaining out of the
southwest, another weather system will track across the state Tue
night and Wed. This system should be lacking in good moisture with
the best dynamics being northwest of the CWA. This system is
forecast to move quickly through the region, so am sticking with
just slight chance of pcpn over most of the area and chance pcpn in
the central parts for Tue night, and then chance pcpn in the east
and southeast for Wed. Once this weather system moves northeast of
the area, the flow will be changing. Models forecast a mid level
trough to push into the area with cooler high pressure on the sfc.
This will lead to dry weather and cooler temps than what we have
experienced the last week.

Temps will actually drop to below normal for middle Dec for Thur
through Sat. MEX guidance supports cooler, below normal temps, but
believe guidance is too low.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Mostly VFR conditions across central IL this evening although some
MVFR cigs noted toward the north including KBMI-KPIA recently
closer to a lingering frontal zone to the north. As increasing
moist southerly flow takes place overnight ahead of an approaching
low...expect low end MVFR and isolated IFR conditions returning
overnight. Chances of rain showers increasing over western
airports later tonight into Sunday morning while eastern IL at DEC
and CMI likely remains dry through 18Z/Sunday with just isolated
showers possible Sunday morning. S winds around 10 kts
overnight...gradually increasing to around 20 kts from 12-18Z
Sunday...with gusts to around 30 kts through the afternoon hours.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2015

Record highs for the weekend:

Location Today Sunday
DEC 12 DEC 13
---------- --------- ---------
Bloomington 65 (1896) 63 (1975)
Champaign 62 (1991) 64 (1975)
Charleston 67 (1949) 64 (1991)
Decatur 65 (1929) 66 (1975)
Effingham 67 (1929) 65 (1991)
Lincoln 64 (1929) 64 (1975)
Peoria 62 (1991) 63 (1975)
Springfield 64 (1929) 67 (1948)

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton
CLIMATE...Auten

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

603 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Temps will actually drop to below normal for middle Dec for Thur
through Sat. MEX guidance supports cooler, below normal temps, but
believe guidance is too low.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2015

Record highs for the weekend:

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton
CLIMATE...Auten

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

239 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

Overcast low clouds below 2k ft and patchy fog and drizzle lifting
northward from southern into central IL and reaching north of
Lincoln by mid afternoon. These low clouds and will overspread rest
of northern CWA next few hours. HRRR model has been handling this
quicker timing of arrival of IFR clouds well and even have a few
sites with vsbys below 1 mile with Paris the lowest at 1/2 mile in
fog. South to southeast winds advecting low level moisture northward
into central IL this afternoon and this to continue tonight with
patchy drizzle as well. Continue slight chances of light rain
showers over central and eastern IL tonight though mostly a trace
event tonight.

A 1000 mb surface low pressure over southeast Nebraska will weaken
to 1010 mb as it moves into south central IA by dawn Sat. One warm
front near I-74 to lift into northern IL tonight while another warm
front near I-70 will slowly lift northward across central IL
tonight. Weak lift along with boundary to develop very light
precipitation along with areas of fog and patchy drizzle especially
east of the IL river with very moist low levels from surface up to
850 mb. SSE winds 5-10 mph and low clouds will not allow temps to
drop too much tonight. Unseasonably mild lows range from around 50F
nw of the IL river to the upper 50s in southeast IL from I-70
southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

Models finally in better agreement with timing of the approaching
system for this weekend. However, all models still have trended a
little slower with the system as it moves into and through the CWA.
Before the main system gets here, light, warm advection type pcpn
will move across the state during the day on Sat. This will include
cloudy skies and much warmer temps...with some sites reaching or
exceeding record temps. Then the main punch of the pcpn will begin
late Sat night and continue through Sunday and Sun night. Models
have also trended with less pcpn through the period, but still
showing around an inch in the east and over 1.5 inches west of I-55.
The heaviest pcpn looks to be Sun afternoon and Sun evening. The
pcpn will diminish on Monday, with just chance pops for mainly Mon
morning. By afternoon, things should push to the east and northeast.

Besides the record warmth on Sat, Sunday highs will also be quite
warm...well above normal for middle of Dec. Once the system moves
through, temps will decrease but still be above normal.

The main focus for next week, Mon night through Friday, will be the
slightly cooler temps and then the decreasing temps back to normal
for later in the week. With the upper level flow remaining
southwesterly in the extended, another wave or two will move
northeast through the flow. However, with the gulf being blocked,
there should be limited moisture in the area for any weak system to
work with. So, only slight chc pops expected for when the weak wave
moves through, which will be Tue night through Wed night. Besides
this, dry weather is expected most of the area through most of the
week.

Temps will stay above normal through about Wed and then fall to
around normal for the end of the week.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

Broken to overcast mid/high clouds of 15-20k ft blanket central IL
this afternoon. Expect MVFR clouds 1-2k ft to spread northward
into central IL, reaching I-72 between 22-24Z and PIA and BMI
23Z-01Z. Ceilings to lower below 1k ft by mid evening along with
drizzle and fog reducing vsbys to MVFR 3-5 miles and lower to 1-2
miles and possibly lower overnight into mid morning Saturday.
Warm front over central IL near I-74 to slowly lift northward into
northern IL during tonight as 999 mb low pressure along the
eastern NE/KS border lifts into central IA by 12Z Sat and weakens
to 1010 mb. SSE winds of 6-11 kts this afternoon to veer SSW
during tonight into Sat morning and be near 10 kts.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2015

Record highs for the weekend:

Location Today Saturday Sunday
DEC 11 DEC 12 DEC 13
---------- --------- --------- ---------
Bloomington 65 (1949) 65 (1896) 63 (1975)
Champaign 64 (1949) 62 (1991) 64 (1975)
Charleston 66 (1931) 67 (1949) 64 (1991)
Decatur 65 (1949) 65 (1929) 66 (1975)
Effingham 60 (1979) 67 (1929) 65 (1991)
Lincoln 66 (1949) 64 (1929) 64 (1975)
Peoria 64 (1949) 62 (1991) 63 (1975)
Springfield 67 (1949) 64 (1929) 67 (1948)

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...07
CLIMATE...Geelhart

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1154 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015

The post-frontal airmass is cooling much quicker than expected,
with CMI already down to 39 and GBG and BMI at 40. There is a band
of cirrus clouds approaching IL from the west, which should help
to limit the additional temp falls later tonight. Have updated the
low temps to put a few mid 30s in the traditional cold spots
along and north of I-74. The other concern is fog potential south
of I-70, especially toward Lawrenceville. Stratus and fog are
already forming in far southern IL, and that trend could progress
up the Wabash River Valley, per HRRR and RAP model output. Have
added a mention of fog S of I-70. There is potential that the fog
could become dense with less than 1/4 mile visibility, so will
watch closely for possible need for a dense fog advisory.

Updated forecast info will be available shortly.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015

Southeasterly winds will become west to northwesterly as a sfc
trough pushes through the area late this afternoon through early
this evening. Gusty winds associated with the tighter gradient
this afternoon will continue some into the early evening hours
after the trough passage. As the trough passes, a weak/brief sfc
ridge will move into the area late tonight. Temps will fall into
the mid 30s in the northwest to the mid 40s in the southeast, with
mostly clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015

As the sfc ridge moves across the area tomorrow morning, winds
will be lighter and skies should become partly sunny. Once the
ridge passes tomorrow night, southerly winds will return and bring
in much warmer temps for the weekend. With the return to southerly
winds tomorrow afternoon, warm advection pcpn could move into the
east and southeastern sections of the CWA tomorrow afternoon into
tomorrow evening. For now, just looks like light showers.

Then, a stronger system will develop in the southwest US/plains
and begin to influence the weather across the CWA beginning Sat.
Again, warm advection showers will be possible in the west and
northwest starting Sat. Sat night, the sfc frontal system will get
closer to the area and bring moderate rain showers to the area
late Sat night, which will continue into Sunday and Sun night.
This system will be a stronger dynamic system with a good deal of
wind dynamics and shear. So, believe some isolated thunder could
be possible late Sat night and into Sunday. Showers should also
be moving quite quickly with mid level winds at 40-45kts. Models
have trended a little slower with this system so linger high pops
into Sunday night will be continued.

Temps through the weekend will be quite warm with record temps
possible Sat and Sunday. Temps will then begin to decrease some
after the weekend system.

Pcpn could linger some into Monday as the weekend system moves
quickly northeast out of the area. Then relative dry weather is
expected Monday night and Tue as another weak ridge moves through
the area. Southwest flow will continue through the week and this
will allow a short-wave trough and then a long wave trough to push
through the area for Tue night through Thur. For now, will stick
with the ensemble blend of slight chance pops for Tue night
through Thur and wait and see how models play things out after the
weekend. Temps will cool through the week as cloudy skies will
continue through the week. Temps will become even cooler as the
long wave trough rotates through the CWA toward the end of the
week.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015

The 05z surface analysis showed a cold front located just
southeast of Lawrenceville, and progressing away from our area to
the E-SE. In the post-frontal airmass, winds have settled out from
the SW in the 7-11kt range. Clouds over the TAF sites have been
mainly cirrus for the balance of the evening.

As high pressure builds into Illinois from the west, winds will
eventually veer to the south Friday morning, then become southeast
as the next low pressure system approaches from the central
Plains. Low level moisture will increase later Friday afternoon,
increasing the potential for MVFR clouds and visibility for a few
hours. Friday evening, conditions will lower to IFR or LIFR in
stratus, fog and drizzle. Drier conditions above the saturated low
levels should help preclude much in the way of measurable rain
between 12/00z and 12/06z.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

Record highs for the weekend:

Location Today Friday Saturday Sunday
Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13
-------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Bloomington 65 (1918) 65 (1949) 65 (1896) 63 (1975)
Champaign 65 (1889) 64 (1949) 62 (1991) 64 (1975)
Charleston 65 (1918) 66 (1931) 67 (1949) 64 (1991)
Decatur 66 (1918) 65 (1949) 65 (1929) 66 (1975)
Effingham 69 (1971) 60 (1979) 67 (1929) 65 (1991)
Lincoln 65 (1918) 66 (1949) 64 (1929) 64 (1975)
Peoria 64 (1889) 64 (1949) 62 (1991) 63 (1975)
Springfield 67 (1889) 67 (1949) 64 (1929) 67 (1948)

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
CLIMATE...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

850 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG A STATONARY FRONT THAT AT 8
PM CURVED FROM FAR NORTHERN MO TO ALONG & JUST NW OF THE TURNPIKE
THRU NW OK TO W TX. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO STABILIZE WITH MLCAPES
NOW UNDER 250 J/KG PER SPS MESO ANALYSIS BUT WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE
6-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING FROM ~50KTS TO ~65KTS...AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR 2 THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE
FOR MOST AREAS (LINCOLN...RUSSELL & BARTON COUNTIES ARE THE
EXCEPTIONS.) FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO FINE-TUNED POPS
& TO A LESSER EXTENT RAINFALLS PER HRRR GUIDANCE. ALL
PRODUCTS...INCLUDING THE HWO...HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF
FRONT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING...AS THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT SURGES NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN TEXAS. A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG PV ANOMALY. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE THAT STRONG COLD AIR INFUSION FROM
THE NORTH LOOKING AT THE LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS...WHERE TEMPERATURE READINGS
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THEREFORE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING ITS ON COLD AIR TO CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...DUE TO STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT
COOLING THE LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL COLUMN WHICH LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE
OVER WESTERN KANSAS. A VERY PRONOUNCED TROWAL AIRSTREAM WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER INTO WESTERN KANSAS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCUR OVER WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY WITH THE HEAVY SNOW. THE KEY THING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE
TIMING OF COOLING THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...SO
TEMPERATURES CAN DROP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK THUS MAKING CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR. THE VERY WARM TROWAL
AIRSTREAM COULD ALSO DELAY THE CHANGE OVER TIME FOR CENTRAL KANSAS.
WE ARE EXPECTING A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW TO OCCUR SOMETIME
EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH AN EARLIER CHANGE OVER
PROMOTING HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. WE WILL KEEP THE
WINTER STORM WATCH HEADLINES IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY FROM TIMING OF THE COOLING/CHANGE OVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD...AS MODELS
SHOW A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR COOL DOWN BUT JUST CLOSER TO NORMAL
VALUES FOR MIDDLE OF DECEMBER. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN
TO MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

JAKUB

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NC MO TO ALG THE KS TURNPIKE TO
THE TX PANHANDLE HAS RESULTED IN A MESSY SITN THIS EVE. NW OF THE
FRONT NMRS SHRA/TS HAVE BROKEN OUT FROM EXTREME NRN OK THRU SC KS
TO THE NE KS/SE NEBRASKA BDR. LIFR CIGS COVER MOST OF THESE AREAS
THE EXCEPTIONS BEING CLOSE TO THE FRONT WHERE BKN ~2,500FT DECKS
HAVE BEEN SITUATED OVER KICT & VCNTY. VSBYS FM 1/2SM TO 2SM COVER
NEARLY OF CNTRL KS & WL DO SO FOR THE REST OF THE NGT. WITH THE
FRONT DRAPED ACRS THE RGN ALL OF CNTRL KS TO RMN IN LIFR STATUS
THRU SUN MRNG WITH SCT TSRA SPRINTING NE ACRS SE KS PRODUCING OCNL
MVFR CIGS & VSBYS. DETAILS FROM 15Z ONWARD WL BE ADDRESSED WITH
THE 06Z EDITION.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 48 49 33 53 / 100 100 50 0
HUTCHINSON 43 44 32 50 / 90 100 80 10
NEWTON 47 49 32 51 / 100 100 60 10
ELDORADO 52 53 34 54 / 100 100 40 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 51 52 34 56 / 100 90 40 0
RUSSELL 36 37 29 44 / 90 100 90 10
GREAT BEND 37 38 29 45 / 90 100 90 10
SALINA 44 44 31 46 / 90 100 80 10
MCPHERSON 43 44 31 48 / 90 100 80 10
COFFEYVILLE 61 62 38 56 / 100 100 40 0
CHANUTE 60 60 37 55 / 100 100 40 10
IOLA 60 60 37 54 / 100 100 40 10
PARSONS-KPPF 60 61 38 56 / 100 100 40 10

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

947 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

According to multiple HRRR runs and current radar trends, it
appears that any measurable precipitation will be more in the
isolated to scattered shower realm generally along the far west
and northwest border areas after 08Z tonight. Tried to push back
the onset of PoPs a bit in the far west, and scaled back likely
PoPs.

Easterly component to the low-level flow is advecting lower
dewpoints into the region which could result in lower lows, if the
winds die off substantially. Really don`t think the winds will
drop off enough for it to matter. Tried to raise lows a bit, but
it may not be far enough especially over the southwest half of the
area.

UPDATE issued at 518 PM CST DEC 12 2015

Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 133 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Decent overall model agreement for the short term period. Tonight
should be fairly uneventful. Perhaps a glancing chance of showers
across the Ozark Foothill region tonight, dry elsewhere and
unseasonably mild. Even on Sunday, it will take some time for the
showers to advance east. West 1/2 of the area, chances will increase
during the morning, but eastward progression in the afternoon will
be limited with increasing meridional flow developing ahead of the
NE ejecting H5 low, forecast to be over the Central Plains by 00z.
Highest PoPs will be late Sunday afternoon far west (SEMO),
progressing west to east across the area Sunday night, diminishing
from west to east after midnight. Wrap around chance of early
morning showers still exists across the northern 1/2 of the area
Monday. Dry afternoon and dry Monday night.

The chance of thunder is so slim its not worth mentioning at this
point. If a CC/CG or two occurs, then it does. But instability
generally passes west and north of us tonight, and is very weak
Sunday given increasingly poor mid level lapse rates. Gusty winds
should be the rule at times Sunday through Monday. Not looking like
Advisory type winds based on latest momentum transfer output. But
something to monitor. Temps will be a blend of MOS, and base model
output. It lines up well with what we already have forecast. We have
slightly lower temps forecast tonight as SSE flow draws in slightly
lower dew points overnight. However with the wind still up a bit not
sure we will fall as low as some of the guidance suggests. We`ll see.
We also noticed a slight decrease in overall QPF with this event, a
trend seen developing yesterday as well.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 133 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

On Tuesday, models show high pressure to our southeast, and a low
pressure system off to our west. In between, our region will see
southerly winds, which will keep temperatures well above seasonal
normals, with highs Tuesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and lows
Tuesday night in the middle to upper 40s.

Models are showing the low pressure system to our west moving
northeast Tuesday night. This will bring a weak cold front across
the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys late Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Models are now in good agreement, producing very
light QPF across the PAH forecast area mainly late Tuesday night
into early Wednesday night. Went with slight to low chances for
showers across our western half of counties late Tuesday night,
across all but our far western counties on Wednesday, then just our
eastern third of counties Wednesday evening.

Unfortunately, the passage of the cold front will bring an end to
our incredible warm spell. West winds behind the front will usher
in colder air late Wednesday night, after the precipitation has
ended, with overnight lows dropping into the lower to middle 30s.
Temperatures will seem very chilly, but readings will actually be
near seasonal normals for the end of the work week and into the
beginning of next weekend. Dry conditions can be expected Thursday
through Saturday with high pressure building to our southwest.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 518 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

VFR conditions are forecast to continue for most of this taf period.
Areas of low clouds in the 3 to 6 thousand foot range are expected
to diminish this evening, leaving primarily a high cloud canopy
above 20 thousand feet. As a cold front approaches from the west on
Sunday, scattered to broken low clouds will form again by midday.
There will likely be some mvfr conditions in rain by late afternoon
in the kcgi area. Elsewhere, vfr is expected through 00z.

Winds will be the secondary concern, with southerly winds increasing
above 40 knots at the 2 thousand foot level on Sunday. Low level
wind shear will be mentioned in tafs.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

1140 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday Sunday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2015

In the near term, low cloudiness has scoured out after a morning of
fog and low stratus. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s. We expect temperatures to max out in the next hour
or so and then start their diurnal fall into the 50s this evening.
Surface winds will be gusty this afternoon with sustained 15-20 MPH
speeds and occasional gusts into the 20-25 MPH range. These winds
will slacken off after sunset.

Clouds will increase tonight as low-level isentropic lift will be in
full swing across the region. We expect a mix of low clouds and fog
to develop once again with some light rain and areas of drizzle
expected. The clouds will keep temperatures mild in the south with
lows only dropping into the lower 50s along the KY/TN border with
mid-upper 40s across the far north. Plenty of cloudiness is
expected to continue on Friday with scattered rain showers dotting
the landscape. Southwesterly winds will keep things warm with highs
in the mid to upper 60s. Overnight lows Friday night will not drop
that much...only into the mid-upper 50s.

Saturday looks to be a little drier with the main forcing north and
west of the region. Current guidance suggests record highs in the
lower 70s...though it could be a little warmer if we have more sun.
Another mild night is on tap for Saturday night with lows only
dropping into the upper 50s to around 60.

By Sunday/Sunday night, well advertised storm system will push into
the region from the west. Precipitation will move in from west to
east during the day with the highest chances in the west and lesser
amounts in the east. Instability will be picking up as well so
have continued to mention chance of thunderstorms through the
period. Highest rain chances look to be Sunday night as the actual
front pushes through. Gradient winds will also pick up through this
period as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 30+
MPH or higher will be possible through early Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2015

Upper level pattern will remain progressive aloft during the period.
Large upper level wave will continue to move off to the northeast
early in the period. The upper flow will quickly go back to zonal
late Monday and Tuesday before re-amplyfing by Wednesday as the next
mid-level cyclone moves from the Plains into the western Great
Lakes. This will push another front through the region on
Wednesday/Wednesday night. The moisture return ahead of this
feature is not overly robust, therefore areal coverage of
precipitation is not going to be as widespread as the Sunday/Monday
system.

Upper level teleconection pattern for mid-late next week will
feature a -AO/-NAO/-PNA pattern with the EPO index heading toward
the neutral range. The overall pattern would suggest an short
period of seasonally cold air coming in for late week and into next
weekend as a large upper trough moves through the region. Highs
Monday will likely top out int he 50-55 degree range with upper 50s
to lower 60s on Tuesday ahead of the next weather system.
Temperatures will likely be cooler on Wednesday with higsh in the
upper 40s in the north ot the lower 50s in the south. Much colder
weather arrives by Thursday with highs mainly in the lower-mid 40s.
Overnight lows through the period will generally be in the upper 30s
to the lower 40s, but cool off into the upper 20s to lower 30s by
Thursday morning and Friday morning.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1139 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015

Moisture continues to pool and be lifted ahead of a stalling cold
front over southeast Missouri and Southwest Illinois late this ev
evening, producing stratocumulus and patchy fog across the area.
Kept a similar, but slower MVFR trend at most locations with
ceilings and viibility. Maintained this trend through most of the
24 hour forecast period.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...Smith

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1227 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 920 PM EST Thu Dec 10 2015

Minor adjustments made to the overnight forecast, but for the most
part it`s on track. Latest IR imagery and GOES-R probability tools
show lower ceilings associated with the warm, moist southerly flow
beginning to take shape across western TN, southwest KY. This low-
level moisture plume is on track to surge northeastward into central
Kentucky overnight.

Latest soundings and RAP forecasts show a steady southwest wind just
off the deck, which may keep this low-level moisture more stratus
than fog. 11.00z OHX sounding shows moisture rooted at around 900
mb, and RAP RH fields at this layer suggest this moisture overtaking
the area between 06-09z. Will continue mention of fog, some dense,
in the forecast but it may end up being a low stratus deck that
lasts well into Friday.

Otherwise, mild night is on tap with lows expected to not stray too
far from current readings (upper 40s to mid 50s).

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EST Thu Dec 10 2015

Expect a few peeks at the sun through the remainder of the
afternoon, although variable cloudiness should hang over the region.
Temps should mostly remain in the 50s for the remainder of the
afternoon.

Low level clouds will again increase overnight as low level moisture
is trapped under a shallow inversion and an isentropic lift
component picks up. Will go with low chances for measurable
precipitation, and mention of drizzle given the shallow moisture.
Also concerned about low stratus build down into some impactful fog
so will mention patchy/areas for now. Not sure how dense it will get
given the steady south low level winds and an uptick in near surface
winds, however this did not stop dense fog from setting in last
night. Will mention in the HWO and continue to evaluate for possible
headlines.

Expect a small diurnal trend given the steady south winds and cloud
cover. Lows will only be in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

The devloping warm front will begin to lift north over the area
Friday and Friday night as we switch to deeper SW flow through the
column in response to an amplifying pattern. This will shift main
showery precip chances to mainly our northern CWA. We`ll also see
milder temps across the south in the mid and upper 60s. Expect temps
to reach the low 60s north on the warm advection component.

Another mild night Friday night as we stay in the warm sector. We`ll
keep small chances for measurable showers mainly across the north.
Lows only expected to drop into the upper 50s to around 60 given the
steady warm advection.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 325 PM EST Thu Dec 10 2015

Saturday - Sunday...

The pattern continues to amplify through the weekend as a potent
upper disturbance digs a trough into the southern Plains and SE
CONUS ridge tries to hold. This puts the Ohio River Valley in deep
SW flow, although the dry warm sector should keep things mostly dry,
very mild, and windy.

Expect a few isolated showers to quickly leave southern IN by midday
Saturday with the southerly winds increasing as the pressure
gradient tightens between the southern Plains low and surface high
to our east. This will help temps rise near and around the 70 degree
mark under more peeks at the sun and increasing heights/thicknesses.
Saturday record high temperatures are in real jeopardy as they are
at 68 for all 4 major climate sites and we are forecasting a tie or
break at each. Most notably, the record high of 68 at LEX dates all
the way back to 1873!

A mild Saturday night will also put record warm minimums in jeopardy
as the strong warm advective component increases. Only expecting
lows in the mid 50s to around 60.

As we move into Sunday, pressure gradient tightens even more, to the
point where a Wind Advisory will be a good bet. Low level thermal
profiles look to support mixing up into a layer where gusts in the
30-40 mph range aren`t out of the question. This strong southerly
flow combined with some sun should allow for even warmer temps into
the low 70s. Some guidance even suggests mid 70s which isn`t out of
the question. The one limiting factor could be cloud cover.

Sunday Night - Monday...

Strong upper anomaly ejects out of the southern Plains into the
Great Lakes Sunday evening into Monday, taking on a negative tilt as
it does. This will bring a deep moisture plume over our region as a
low level jet increases in response to the upper jet arrival. We`ll
keep the strong gradient winds in place through the evening ahead of
the front, meanwhile widespread and a strongly forced line of
showers will move through. Still not overly impressed with
instability potential, but given the warm day ahead and continued
warm advection, enough surface based instability may develop for
some stronger gusts to mix down in showers/storms that evening.
Additionaly, some heavy rainfall is possible, although the overall
system is progressive enough that no major concerns are warranted.
Overall QPF should range around 1 inch with some spots seeing
locally higher amounts.

Cold front pushes through later Sunday night into Monday with
lingering showers clearing from SW to NE through the day. Expect
cooler highs back in the 50s (not a statement you see too often in
mid december!).

Monday Night - Thursday...

Progressive upper ridge and surface high pressure keep us dry and
cooler through Tuesday night, although not a substantial airmass
change. Look for highs mostly in the 50s and lows in the 39-43 range.

Chances for rain return Wednesday through Thursday as another front
progresses through our deep SW flow pattern. Confidence is a little
sketchy on timing so will mention low chances for now. A secondary
cool down will occur behind this boundary, with cold air trying to
catch up to any lingering moisture Wednesday night into Thursday.
Will hold off on any frozen precip mention as this scenario rarely
works out.

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1225 AM EST Fri Dec 11 2015

Poor flying conditions expected for most of this period. Lower cigs
are coming and will persist as low-level lift sets up combined with
southerly winds bringing moisture into the region. Some light
drizzle/rains may fall from these low clouds, but the main hazard
will be the lower cigs. Expect low-end MVFR conditions to set up
over the next 2-3 hours and then drop down to IFR by daybreak. Time
height sections indicate their could be a brief rise in cigs at KSDF
and KLEX between 15-21Z...but then cigs should fall again with
sunset.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

829 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE TRI CITIES REGION AND FLINT
IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING SHOWING A
PERSISTENCE OF LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF OF SAGINAW BAY DOWN
INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FETCH JUST NORTH OF
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE THE TICKET AS
VISIBILITIES ARE EITHER AT OR APPROACHING 1/4SM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. LATEST HRRR VSBY PROG SHOWS FOG FILLING IN ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH TIME MOST LIKELY DUE TO AN
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE LIFTING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER SOUTH OF THE
I 69 CORRIDOR WITH THE GROWTH OF A PSEUDO WARM SECTOR EARLIER TODAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING AND APPEND ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS NEEDED.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 654 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015

AN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TERMINALS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT ROUGHLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR. COMPOUNDING MATTERS IS THE RECENT
POOR PERFORMANCE OF GUIDANCE. SURFACE VISIBILITIES FROM FLINT
NORTHWARD ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE NEARTERM WITH MANY SITES
REPORTING VISIBILITIES AT LESS THAN ONE MILE. BEEN WAITING ON
OBSERVATION TRENDS POST SUNDOWN TO MAKE A MORE DEFINITIVE ASSERTION
ON TANKING THE VISIBILITIES IN THE FORECAST. THE FEATURE TO WATCH
FOR WILL BE A SECONDARY THETA E AXIS/REINFORCING SURFACE
WARM/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. TIMING OF
THE GRADIENT INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IS...SOUTH OF I 94 BETWEEN
00-03Z...TO THE M59 CORRIDOR BY 06Z AND THROUGH FLINT AND SAGINAW
BETWEEN 9-12Z. THE ABSOLUTE MOISTURE SURGE IS CERTAINLY ROBUST AND
DO EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT VISIBILITIES AND CIGS DURING THE NIGHT.
WILL BE MONITORING THIS FEATURE CLOSELY. AGAIN THOUGH...DO EXPECT
CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR DTW...DECENT WARM SECTOR WAS ABLE TO LIFT THROUGH DETROIT THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR VFR CIGS. WILL BE WATCHING SECONDARY MOISTURE
SURGE DURING THE 00-03Z TIMEFRAME. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN
ALONG WITH STEADILY DEGRADING CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM
TO HIGH IN LIFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET.

* LOW FOR CEILING BELOW 200 FEET OR VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015

DISCUSSION...

A WEEKEND OF RECORD WARMTH IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SE MICHIGAN WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK DURING SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S MOST AREAS...AND POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70 NEAR THE OHIO BORDER.
PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR AN OVERVIEW OF RECORD HIGHS
AND WARMEST LOWS.

THE SURFACE FRONT WAVERED JUST FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND AT DTW. THIS BOOSTED THE TEMPERATURE ENOUGH THERE FOR
A 3 PM TEMPERATURE AT A RECORD HIGH OF 62. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF FNT...THE RECORD OF 61 IS IN REACH THERE
AS WELL SINCE IT WILL ONLY TAKE A MINOR NORTHWARD WAVER OF THE FRONT
TO BRING LOWER 60S READINGS INTO THAT AREA. RECORD WARMEST LOWS WILL
ALSO BE IN REACH TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MBS WHERE
THEY COULD SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 40S DURING THE EVENING. OVERALL A
VERY MILD NIGHT REMAINS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT.

CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE ON THE DAMP SIDE AS DRIZZLE AND FOG INCREASE
COVERAGE DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO INCREASE DUE TO A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 12Z MODEL PACKAGE IS CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION
OF STRONG LEE SIDE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO. PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE ENCOURAGED BY THE NEXT ROUND OF JET ENERGY DRIVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT IS SHOWN CLEARLY IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY TODAY. EVOLUTION OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL FORCE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME DEEPER AND STRONGER FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL DRIVE A NEW SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT POINTS TO TIMING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ENTRY LEVEL
NUMEROUS COVERAGE DEVELOPING OVER THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB
LATER IN THE NIGHT WHERE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ADD A BOOST TO
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

THE SURGE OF MOISTURE ORGANIZING TONIGHT WILL LINGER OVER THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB DURING THE MORNING BUT THEN MIGRATE INTO
NORTHERN LOWER BY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE SERIOUS RECORD WARMTH THAT IS STAGED OVER OHIO
AND INDIANA TODAY WHERE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE
BEING REPORTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING INTO IOWA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDING
NORTHWARD FROM THERE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA AND BOOST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
MOST AREAS TO NEAR 70 TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. THE FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE IN THE TRI CITIES AND NEAR THE SHORELINE
AREAS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CLASSIC TRIPLE POINT
FRONTAL STRUCTURE. A GOOD COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL FORM A SHARP MOISTURE AXIS
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A MOSTLY SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME THAT WILL BE WORTHY OF CATEGORICAL POPS. THE
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN WILL
MINIMIZE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION
BELOW. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG WIND ALONG AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CONSENSUS
MODEL SUPPORT FOR GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE SEVERE SURFACE OCCLUSION
PROCESS THAT IS ADVERTISED TO UNFOLD DURING MONDAY OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES ALSO APPEARS TO LEAD TO SOME DISPERSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD OR AT LEAST LIMIT THE WIND HAZARD WINDOW TO MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER AIR WILL QUICKLY TAKE OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. QUIETER WEATHER DOES NOT LAST LONG
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP...HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN
SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FLOW
TURNS WEST/NORTHWEST. A RETURN TO MORE WINTER LIKE TEMPS COMES BACK
INTO THE PICTURE AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE -10C TO -14C DEGREE
RANGE. THESE TEMPS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

MARINE...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...LEADING
TO LIGHT WINDS OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...LAKE ST. CLAIR AND
WESTERN LAKE ERIE. ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE HURON...EASTERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS
THEN SHIFTING SOUTH AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF STRONG COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE HURON. POST
FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MONDAY EVENING LOOK TO REACH GALES
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE...AND POSSIBLY
LAKE ST. CLAIR. GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

HYDROLOGY...

A WARM FRONT IN PLACE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...WITH QPF AMOUNTS LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. THE WARM
FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH TOMORROW...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG LOW LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEND A DEEPER PLUME OF
MOISTURE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN RAINFALL
AVERAGING AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...MOSTLY FALLING DURING
MONDAY. IF THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A BIT SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED OR IS A BIT STRONGER...THEN RAINFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH
HALF AN INCH.

CLIMATE...

A RECORD HIGH WAS SET AT DETROIT TODAY...WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY
FALLING TOMORROW ACROSS ALL CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 12
DETROIT: 62 (2015)
FLINT: 61 (1949)
SAGINAW: 61 (1949)

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 13 (WARMEST LOW)
DETROIT: 50 (1881)
FLINT: 40 (2001)
SAGINAW: 44 (1920)

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 13
DETROIT: 60 (1881)
FLINT: 55 (1991)
SAGINAW: 56 (1920)

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 14 (WARMEST LOW)
DETROIT: 51 (1975)
FLINT: 52 (1975)
SAGINAW: 50 (1975)

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ047-048-053-054-060-
061.

LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LEZ444.

UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION....BT/SS
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY...SF
CLIMATE...SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

900 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING HAS TICKED UP
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS/SERN NE/SWRN IA SINCE 6 PM AND SOME
OF THIS INSTABILITY MAY WORK INTO SRN MN/WRN WI LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THOSE
AREAS FOR THAT TIME.

THE NEW 00Z NAM AND RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE COME IN WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY WX FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH ALL THE RAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. 18Z GFS TRENDED THAT
WAY AS WELL. THIS MAY REQUIRE GRID ADJUSTMENTS OVERNIGHT IF THE
REST OF THE MODEL SUITE SHOWS THE SAME TREND. THE NAM DID NOT
LOWER TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ALL THAT MUCH AS IT TRENDED HEAVIER WITH
THE FINAL ROUND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

THINGS ARE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
IMPACTING US SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A STRONG CIRCULATION PASSING
FROM EASTERN AZ INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. AT THE SFC...LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING ON THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM AMARILLO UP TO NEAR KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL SPREAD WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK...THOUGH THOSE DIFFERENCES ARE BECOMING QUITE MINOR. DURING
THIS SHORT TERM...THE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER IS IN THE
PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF AT H5...WITH THIS CLOSED LOW PROGGED TO GO
FROM NEW MEXICO TO SE KANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SFC LOW WILL
FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW...REACHING THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY 7 PM SUNDAY
/END OF THE SHORT TERM/ WITH THE WARM FRONT DRIFTING NW...GETTING
ABOUT AS FAR AS THE SE TIP OF MN UP TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE U.P.
OF MICHIGAN.

FOR THIS PERIOD...THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP THIS EVENING/TONIGHT BY SEVERAL HOURS
WITH CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PRECIP. THE REASON CAN BE SEEN WITH ISENTROPIC CHARTS BETWEEN 290K
AND 300K...WHICH SHOW THE WEDGE OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 800 MB AND 550 MB
ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING NOT MOVING NORTH UNTIL AFTER 6Z
TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN PRECIP IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE MPX AREA. FOR POPS...USED A BLEND OF RAW CAM POPS WITH
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES BASED ON THE CAMS TO BRING IN RAIN
TONIGHT.

WHERE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS WARM ADVECTIVE PRECIP IS HOW FAR
WEST WILL IT REACH. DID TRIM POPS ACROSS WRN MN TONIGHT/SUN MORNING
AS BULK OF AND HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS TO STICK CLOSER TO THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT WILL BE GOING FROM IOWA UP TOWARD
THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RAIN SHIELD LOOKS
TO SHIFT EAST A BIT...SO REDUCED POPS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE WEST. FOR ERN MN AND WI...IT WILL BE A RATHER SOGGY
SUNDAY...WITH PRETTY MUCH CONTINUOUS RAIN EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH A
VARIABLE INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY.

ON THE QPF FRONT...DID REDUCE QPF QUITE A BIT FOR TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MN GIVEN THE LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP. QPF WAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING TO REDUCE
AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN MN. WHERE WE COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY PREDICTED WOULD BE IN SOUTHEAST MN UP TOWARD
EAU CLAIRE...WHERE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION EXISTS. HOWEVER...
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND THE FACT THAT
MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT GET A TASTE OF THE WARM SECTOR...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAINING NEARLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUT TOWARD EAU CLAIRE WHO LOOKS
TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WARM FRONT TO ALLOW HIGHS TO SNEAK UP
INTO THE LOW 50S. HOWEVER...YOU WILL NOT HAVE TO GO TOO FAR TO GET
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THAT HIGH LOOKING TO
GET AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN WI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE CONTINUING PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
TRANSITION TO SNOW AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS... THEN THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING PCPN TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT
WE/LL SEE PCPN TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY WARM ADVECTION FORCED
VARIETY TO THAT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION ZONE
AND AREA OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. A DECENT TROWAL LOOKS TO
TIGHTEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN TURN STRENGTHEN THE
FRONTOGENESIS AS THINGS MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED AREA OF PCPN
WITH THIS FORCING... AND SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY RAIN GIVEN WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE NAM IS AN
OUTLIER IN MOVING THE SURFACE LOW MORE QUICKLY AND FARTHER EAST...
AND AS A RESULT IT CHANGES THINGS FROM RAIN TO SNOW MUCH MORE
QUICKLY THAN THE GFS... ECMWF... CANADIAN... AND MOST SREF
MEMBERS. DISCOUNTING THAT IDEA AT THIS POINT... SO HAVE MOSTLY
JUST MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE WEST AND A PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA.

SOME PCPN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW... WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE... WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY... BEFORE WE SEE PCPN OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...
ECMWF... AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL BRING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS OR
JUST WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES BEFORE MOVING IT INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN... AND THEIR TEMPERATURE PROFILES ONCE AGAIN LOOK TO
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... WITH SNOW PRIMARILY
OVER THE WEST. THINGS SHOULD TRANSITION FROM LIQUID TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING... BUT THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHEAST BY THAT POINT... SO TOUGH TO THINK
THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL BRING OUR FIRST TASTE OF WINTER FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THINGS DRY. MODERATING
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

IFR AND POCKETS OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
SRN MN BETWEEN 08-10Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI
THROUGH SUNDAY. A NARROW BAND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP
THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN MN AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...IMPACTING AREAS NEAR AXN. AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS AND
WHAT KIND OF PRECIPITATION IS DOMINANT. RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE.

KMSP...POOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 30+ HOURS.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR. RA ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS NNW 15-20 KTS.
TUE...MVFR. CHC IFR WITH -RA/-SN LATE. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
WED...MVFR/IFR. LIKELY -RA CHANGING TO -SN. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

343 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

THE SHORT TERM IS DEFINITELY THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WITH THE BIG
CHANGE MADE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEING TO REDUCE POPS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE SFC RIDGE THAT WORKED ACROSS MN THIS MORNING IS
NOW WORKING ACROSS WI...WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SETTING UP AS
LEE CYCLOGENESIS SLOWLY EVOLVES ACROSS COLORADO. LEAD SHORTWAVE
EMANATING FROM THE MAIN WRN THROUGH IS WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL NODAK
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS ON ITS WAY FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TIED TO MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 295K SFC...AND THE RAP SHOWS THIS AREA OF
FORCING/MOISTURE HEADING FOR NW MN...SO REMOVED WHAT LITTLE POPS WE
HAD FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN.

LATER TONIGHT...WE WILL SEE ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP PUSH NORTH ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FIRST MOISTURE SURGE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN
AREA OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT PRIMARY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AT 925MB WILL BE GOING FROM EASTERN IOWA TOWARD THE
MICH/WI BORDER. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MPX CWA...AS ANY DZ/RA PRODUCTION LOOKS TO OCCUR
SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

FOR SATURDAY...CONTINUED THE TREND OF DRYING THE FORECAST AS
WELL...AS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM COMING AFTER 00Z SUNDAY /SATURDAY
EVENING/. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF ELEVATED
FGEN IN THE H7-H6 LAYER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE...CAM AND
NON-CAM ALIKE...SHOW A BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING IN WRN MN AND
WORKING UP TO CENTRAL MN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THIS WAS WHERE
PRECIP MENTION WAS MAINTAINED...EVERYWHERE ELSE WE KEPT DRY UNTIL WE
GET INTO SATURDAY EVENING...WHEN THINGS LOOK TO GO DOWNHILL PRETTY
QUICK. LOOKS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO KEEP THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WE SEE AS RAIN...THOUGH WE MAY SEE A
SNOWFLAKE OR TWO MIX IN OUT TOWARD ALEXANDRIA. WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE...REMOVED ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM SATURDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...TAPERING TO
ABOUT A HALF INCH OF LIQUID IN WESTERN MN. AT THIS POINT...WESTERN
MN IS THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN THE
COOLER TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THIS AREA.

THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN DIALED IN WITH ONLY SMALL WOBBLES IN
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK OVER THE PAST 3 RUNS GOING BACK TO LAST
NIGHT. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY OVER
THE PAST 3-4 RUNS. AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED...THE
FORECAST LOW TRACK HAS THE LOOK OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM...ITS
SIMPLY TOO WARM. BOTH THE 60HR CIPS ANALOG FROM THE NAM AND THE
72HR ANALOG FROM THE GFS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE GETTING READY TO
ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH HEADLINES ACROSS MOST OF OUR MINNESOTA
COUNTIES...AGAIN NOT EVEN CLOSE WITH THESE TEMPERATURES. WHAT WE
ARE CONFIDENT IN...IS WIDESPREAD 1"+ RAIN TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN
MN AND WESTERN WI. WE NOW HAVE 100% RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL PERIODS SAT-MON. SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI COULD GET A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A LOW TRACK OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IA AND INTO NORTHERN WI FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN BURSTS OF PRECIP...THE
FIRST IS WITH THE MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SATURDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVE LULL...AND THE SECOND SURGE SUNDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH THE CLASSIC FLUID DEFORMATION - THIS LINGERS
INTO MONDAY. THE ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS IN WESTERN MN...WHERE SOME
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT COOLER. AS IT STANDS
NOW...WE ARE FORECASTING 1-3" OF SNOW NEAR AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
GRANITE FALLS...TO SAUK CENTRE...TO STAPLES - WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIP. THE COLD SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ISNT AS COLD AS WE MIGHT
EXPECT...WHICH IS WHY WE AREN`T GOING WITH HIGHER SNOW TOTALS AT
THIS POINT. HOWEVER...STRONG SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THAT DEEPEN AS
THEY LIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS CAN DYNAMICALLY LOWER THE FREEZING
LEVEL AND GIVE YOU A QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. IF THAT WERE TO
HAPPEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS ALEXANDRIA...GRANITE FALLS AND BENSON
COULD END UP WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW - MAYBE AS MUCH AS 6". WE`LL
CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR WESTERN MN AREA CLOSELY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEFINITELY SHOW MORE SLEET IN THESE AREAS AS WELL
BECAUSE THEY HAVE COOLED BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT.

THE TRAILING SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
COOLER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW. IT HAS A VERY SIMILAR TRACK
TO THE WEEKEND STORM...HOWEVER...IT IS ALSO DRIER AND FASTER. WE
WILL LEAVE IT THERE AND TAKE THIS ONE SYSTEM AT A TIME.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

SFC RIDGE AT 18Z WAS CENTERED ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN LIGHT WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING ALL DAY...WITH THE LOW
STRATUS SLOW TO BUDGE AS A RESULT. FOLLOWED MORE THE HRRR FOR CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC LAMP
GUIDANCE. ALLOWED VFR CONDITIONS IN SRN WI TO COME INTO ERN
MN...BUT LOOKS UNLIKELY THEY WILL REACH TERMINALS WEST OF MSP.
TONIGHT...WE WILL SEE A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COME UP FROM
THE SOUTH AND HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND CIGS BACK
DOWN TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS AREAWIDE AND THE LAMP GUIDANCE LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR BRINGING THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE TERMINALS.
LESS CONFIDENCE ON WHAT THIS MOISTURE SURGE MEANS FOR VIS...BUT FG
WILL BE A THREAT TO WATCH AT AXN AND POSSIBLY RWF. ONCE THESE LOW
CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT...THEY WILL BE WITH US LIKELY INTO THE
DAY ON MONDAY...THOUGH PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 18Z IN WRN/CENTRAL MN AND AFTER 00Z SUNDAY EVERYWHERE ELSE.

KMSP...HAVE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE TAF IN SHOWING A BRIEF
WINDOW OF VFR CIGS...THOUGH THE LONGER IT TAKES FOR THESE
IMPROVEMENTS TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF SRN WI/NRN IOWA...THE GREATER
THE CHANCE THAT MSP NEVER SEES THIS IMPROVEMENT AND REMAINS STUCK
WITH CIGS UNDER 017 FOR LIKELY THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. IF
ANYTHING...CIG FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS
A BIT OPTIMISTIC...WITH CIGS DOWN UNDER 500 FEET NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION COME SATURDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...IFR WITH PERIODS OF RA. WINDS NE TO N 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR. -RA/-SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NW 15-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR EARLY. MVFR/IFR WITH CHC -SN LATE. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1206 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

IN THE WAKE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MN AND WC WI ON THURSDAY...CAA AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BLW 5K PROVIDED
LOWER CLDS AND SOME FOG TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING ARE STILL VERY MILD WITH 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY/TONIGHT IS WHETHER SOME -SN...MIXED
WITH -RA DEVELOPS IN WC/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING HRS
AS A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES NE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NW MN. DEEP
MOISTURE IS THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF THIS SHRTWV. THEREFORE...IT IS LIKELY THAT NOTHING MORE THAN A
FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR IN WC/CENTRAL MN DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING. EVEN THE LATEST HRRR/RAP DOESN/T SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE
THAN A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WATER IN CENTRAL MN. TEMPS
WILL BE WARMEST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME E/SE LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD
OF THIS WX SYSTEM. THIS WILL STALL THE CLDS THIS MORNING ALONG THE
IA/MN BORDER...AND BRING THEM BACK NORTH/NW AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST/SE. IF MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS...TEMPS
THIS AFTN WILL REACH 50 DEGREES ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER...WITH 40S AS
FAR NORTH AS THE TWIN CITIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF SNOW HAS DECREASED FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD ON SATURDAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH
FURTHER AMPLIFIES. ANY PRECIP PRIOR TO SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE
PRETTY FAINT...WITH ROBUST FORCING NOT LIFTING INTO THE AREA UNTIL
CLOSER TO 06Z SUNDAY. BY THAT TIME...H85 TEMPS ARE PRIMARILY
FORECAST TO BE IN THE +1C TO +6C RANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ACROSS ALL BUT POSSIBLY THE VERY FAR WEST CENTRAL MN COUNTIES. BY
THE TIME COLD ENOUGH AIR FEEDS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WINDING DOWN. HAVE THEREFORE
REDUCED FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO ZERO FROM THE TWIN CITIES
DOWN TO FAIRMONT...EAST ACROSS WI. TO THE WEST...HALF TO ONE INCH
AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.

THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM PARADE LIFTS INTO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIFFER IN THAT IT IS PROGGED TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONGER SURFACE REFLECTION...AND IS A BIT
COLDER. THERE ARE STILL NOTABLE SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT BOTH WOULD FAVOR SNOW AS THE
PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE.

THE OTHER MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE RETREATED BACK CLOSER TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...IFR WITH PERIODS OF RA. WINDS NE TO N 10-15 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR. -RA/-SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NW 15-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR EARLY. MVFR/IFR WITH CHC -SN LATE. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
955 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

...Wind Advisory Posted for Southwestern Missouri...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0930 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

We have issued a Wind Advisory for southwestern Missouri from 5 AM
until noon on Sunday.

Surface low pressure will move northeast from northeastern
Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas Sunday morning. This low will
undergo a deepening trend which will result in a continued
increase in southeasterly winds across the Ozarks. The 00 UTC NAM
with support from the RAP and HRRR indicate sustained
southeasterly winds in the 25-30 mph range by mid-morning on
Sunday along and just north of the Ozark Plateau. These winds are
right on the lower edge of Wind Advisory criteria.

While strong mixing will not be present (supportive of good gust
potential), we do feel that the presence of another heavier band
of precipitation will at least pose a limited potential to
transport higher gusts to the surface. Momentums just off the
surface will therefore support gusts in the 40-45 mph range.

We have started the Wind Advisory at 5 AM as pressure gradients
really begin to tighten with the approaching surface low. Winds
will decrease in the afternoon as the low starts to move
off...thus the termination time of noon.

While the standard impact to high profile vehicles is a concern,
these winds may also blow around loose objects such as Christmas
and holiday decorations.

Otherwise, the going forecast is in good shape. The threat for
strong/severe storms remains very low and confined to extreme
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri (isolated
damaging wind gust threat). The Flood Watch also remains intact
with a solid 1-3" of rainfall expected. Portions of McDonald and
Newton Counties have already received over 0.75".

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 227 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

An upper level low is currently across the southwestern U.S. this
afternoon. Ahead of this system a warm and moist air mass
continues to spread north across the area. Despite cloudy
conditions temperatures are in the upper 60s to the lower 70s
across the area, which are well above normal for December and in
fact near record levels. See the climate section for more details
on record highs for today.

The system is slowly moving east and the associated lift also
remains west of the area. As a result little in the way of rain
has occurred today, and mainly dry conditions are expected the
rest of the afternoon.

This evening lift will start to develop across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas and will spread north and expand across the
area into the overnight hours.

With the upper level low still well off to the southwest and
moving slowly to the east, height falls will remain well west of
here this evening into the overnight hours keeping mid level lapse
rate and instability in check. Still with a warm and moist air
mass there will be some instability in place that will allow some
embedded thunderstorms this evening into tonight. Wind shear will
be strong across the area, but with the limited instability and
better dynamics well west not sure the convection can really get
organized which will limit the severe potential, with just a low
risk for a few strong storms across southeastern Kansas and
southwestern Missouri with damaging winds the main risk, but at
this time this risk is low with the better severe setup southwest
of the area.

Widespread moderate rain will occur tonight with pockets of
heavier rainfall. Confidence is high in rain develop and that
pockets of heavy rain occurs, likely in small bands. The better
potential for these heavier bands of rain will be across extreme
southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri, though pin pointing
exact locations of the heavier pockets will be difficult until the
develop. The widespread 1 to 3" of rainfall will result in rises
on streams and rivers leading the potential for minor flooding
tonight continuing into Sunday and a Flood Watch is in affect for
locations in extreme southeastern Kansas and southwestern
Missouri where the heavier rain is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Sunday will be rainy and mild as the upper level system slowly
ejects to the northeast. Best slug of rain will be during the day
ahead of the main boundary. Dry slot will work in from southwest
to northeast during the afternoon and evening, transitioning rain
to more of a isolated shower/patchy drizzle setup Sunday night.

Still having a hard time justifying thunder in the forecast for
Sunday. Most unstable CAPE from the models remains (at best)
paltry, coming in around 100 J/kg. Best course of action will be
to watch how convection evolves in Oklahoma heading into tonight
and hone in on an small scale areas where thunder will be
possible Sunday morning.

The 1-3" storm total rainfall amounts still look reasonable. The
higher totals will be more common over the western half of the
area, where a couple of rounds of decent rain are expected. The
lower end amounts look to be over the eastern half of the area,
where the bulk of the rain occurs during the day Sunday.

Mild temperatures will continue Monday and Tuesday before a cold
front moves through the region Tuesday night. This will usher in a
more seasonable airmass for mid to late week, with highs in the
40s and lows in the 20s/30s.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 0536 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

An approaching storm system will bring a variety of aviation
concerns from tonight into Sunday. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms will spread from southwest to northeast into
southern Missouri starting later this evening, and will persist
through much of Sunday. MVFR conditions can be expected, with
pockets of IFR possible with heavier showers and thunderstorms.
Weather models do indicate increasing potential for more
widespread IFR as we head into Sunday, but confidence remains
somewhat low.

Low level wind shear will also develop from later tonight into
Sunday morning. Additionally, brisk and gusty southeasterly
surface winds will develop as the low pressure approaches later
tonight and Sunday morning. Sustained winds around Springfield
will approach 25 knots with gusts around 35 knots due to local
terrain effects.

.CLIMATE...

Some record highs and record warm lows will be jeopardy today.

Highs for Today (December 12)...

Record
SGF- 74/1889
JLN- 69/1907
UNO- 70/1980
VIH- 70/1991

Warm Lows for Today (December 12)...

Record
SGF- 60/1929
JLN- 45/2014
UNO- 50/1975
VIH- 47/1990

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to noon CST Sunday for MOZ077>081-
088>095-102-103.

Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MOZ077-088>096-101>105.

KS...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KSZ101.

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann
CLIMATE...Wise

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

544 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Very well defined temperature boundary draped across the forecast
area this afternoon. This boundary is running roughly from SW to NE
from KPNC to KDBQ. South of this boundary temperatures are in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, with dew points in the upper 50s to lower
60s. North of the boundary, temperatures are in the middle 40s to
lower 50s, with dew points in the 40s. The warm temperatures across
the area exist despite widespread cloud cover, which is in response
to good moisture transport north within the southerly low level
flow. Shameful the warm front likely won`t reach far enough north
for KCI to record the warm air, since today`s record high is 70
degrees, set on December 12, 1889. As it were, expect temperatures
to remain well above seasonal normals across the area, with the warm
sector along and south of I-70 generally remaining about 30 degrees
above normal mid-December values.

Biggest change in this forecast package deals with the timing of the
precipitation into the area. HRRR trends have indicated little in
the way of precipitation moving into the area prior to sunset, and
latest NAM (12z) forecast soundings show pretty poor quality
moisture moving into the area this afternoon. Forecast soundings,
while nicely saturated in the lower levels (stratus) have very dry
air entrapped in the mid levels. This dry air will take some time to
completely saturate. Have bumped back the timing of scattered
precipitation to after 00z, with more widespread rain perhaps
holding off until around 03z to 06z. Once the atmosphere properly
saturates tonight expect widespread rain to overtake the area.
Soundings showing deep saturation all the way to 400 mb as well as
very high PWAT`s (~1.5 to 1.75 inches) indicate very efficient rain
process akin to a tropical type air mass. Forecast anomalies
indicate the moisture quality of the atmosphere are good enough to
represent maximum values observed for mid-December, nearly 5
standard deviations above normal values. Given the impressive
moisture quality rain rates will be high. The progressive nature of
the mid level system will likely make the bulk of the precipitation
fall during a ~12 hour stretch Saturday night through Sunday
morning. By Sunday afternoon/evening the track of the mid level
system will push the mid level dry slot right through the heart of
the forecast area, which will limit rain amounts from KC up through
KIRK. Despite the "limited" amounts, still anticipating over an inch
of rain for the entire area, up to 2 inches, with some areas
reaching 2 to 3 inches. As the mid level trough moves through,
dragging the dry slot through western Missouri a cold front will
dive south/southeast bringing a cooling trend to the first part of
next week. NAM continues to indicate colder air in the lowest levels
in the post frontal deformation band associated with the trowal, and
even hints at accumulating snow for portions of NW Missouri. However
it remains the outlier for temperatures cold enough for snow
production and accumulation. Final forecast lows for Monday morning
in the middle to upper 30s in far NW Missouri put the final nail in
the coffin of any notion of accumulating snow anywhere in Missouri.
That being said, one could certainly infer from the cool air aloft
that some ice crystals could form with perhaps a few making it to
the surface.

As for the mode of rain showers on Saturday night. Forecast models
continue to indicate some very marginal instability, on the order of
a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE through 09z. Given the marginal
instability it remains conceivable that there could be some embedded
thunderstorms within the stratiform rain. Deep layer shear on the
order of 40 to 50 kts will be enough to help any thunderstorm to
become strong. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated,
there is a chance that one or several of these thunderstorms could
produce some gusty winds and perhaps some small hail. Due to the
prolonged nature of the light to moderate rain it also remains
possible that several area rivers could see some minor/nuisance
flooding.

Expect the rain to linger through the first part of the day on
Monday and be out of the area by Monday afternoon/evening.
Thereafter the pattern goes dry for the foreseeable future, with the
exception of some very low end chances for precipitation (in the form
of very light rain and/or snow for Tuesday night. A much cooler
pattern then develops, much like this area is accustomed to seeing
in mid-December with highs in the 30s and 40s and lows in the 20s
and 30s.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Precipitation is beginning to form over central and northeastern
Kansas. This activity will push eastward through the late evening
hours, which will rapidly diminish conditions to IFR around 04Z. A
large stream of moisture from the south will keep the precipitation in
place through the remaining period. Conditions will likely reduce to
LIFR in the early morning hours as temperatures cool and winds
settle. By the late morning, gusty winds will help to lift
conditions to MVFR, though steady precipitation will continue well
into Sunday afternoon with some breaks Sunday evening.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Welsh

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

339 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 336 PM CST Fri Dec 11 2015

Forecast problem for tonight is sky cover and possibility of fog.
Low clouds have mostly cleared out of central Missouri, but are
hanging tough across eastern Missouri and much of southern and
central Illinois. Model guidance has been less than helpful so far
in forecasting these low clouds...though the HRRR has been the best
so far. HRRR has the low clouds continuing to push northeast this
evening, but high clouds will likely persist over the area. The net
effect for the public forecast will still be a mostly cloudy to
cloudy sky regardless of what the low clouds ultimately decide to
do. While there could be some fog tonight, boundary layer winds
look too strong to support truly dense fog...except possibly over
the eastern Ozarks. However, it`s more likely that low visibility
will be caused by low clouds which are forecast to redevelop over
the higher terrain. South-southwest flow combined with clouds will
keep lows well above normal tonight. MOS guidance in the low to mid
50s looks very reasonable.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Fri Dec 11 2015

(Saturday through Monday)

Operational models are showing a slightly slower motion of the upper
low toward the area over the weekend which will result in a slower
onset of the steadier showers on Saturday night and Sunday. Before
then, still expect chances of light rain to increase during the day
on Saturday as transport of moisture from the Gulf increases via
40kt low level jet. Then showers and scattered thunderstorms will
spread across the area on Saturday night and Sunday as strong
moisture convergence moves from west to east across the area
under enhanced ascent caused by negatively tilting mid level
trough. The rain will continue into Sunday night before ending
during the day Monday as the trough lifts out of the area.

While temperatures will cool off slightly over the weekend because
of the rain, they will remain above normal because of the warm
sector. There will not be much of diurnal swing because of the
clouds and rain.

(Tuesday through Friday)

The GFS and ECMWF are depicting similar solutions to yesterday with
an upper low moving from the southern Rockies into the Great Lakes
at midweek. Most of the dynamics look to be staying to the
northwest of our area with this system, and the most of the moisture
will be staying to the south, so precipitation will be limited. The
system will still pull a cold front through the area on Wednesday
with 850mb temperatures falling to around -10C on the ECMWF by
Friday behind it. This still confirms that temperatures will go
from well above normal on Tuesday to near mid December normals by
Friday.

Britt

.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Dec 11 2015

Primary challenge remains low ceilings and visibilities across
much of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. It`s difficult
to track the northward progress using satellite due to higher
clouds obscuring the low stuff, but It does look like the IFR
ceilings are continuing to move north-northwest based on
observations and breaks in the higher clouds. High resolution
short-range guidance is bearing this out so far, so I expect much
of east central and southeast Missouri as well as parts of west
central and southwest Illinois to get the low stratus through the
afternoon. Guidance indicates improving conditions late this
afternoon into the evening...but there is the potential for
stratus to redevelop overnight tonight. If this occurs, expect
ceilings to be at or below 1000 FT and the low stratus to persist
through much of Saturday morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect gradually improving flight conditions at Lambert this
afternoon...tho I think it unlikely the ceilings will get above
IFR before 22Z...perhaps even closer to 00Z. Pretty much only one
piece of model guidance is handling this situation with any degree
of accuracy, so I`m following that relatively closely. This
guidance actually brings ceilings up to VFR after 00Z...however I
think this is unlikely since MVFR ceilings stretch well south
through the Mississippi Valley. Latest thinking is that ceilings
will stay between 1000-1500 this evening with gradual lowering
back to IFR late tonight. Think IFR conditions are likely to
prevail at least through Saturday morning.

Carney

.CLIMATE:
Record max temps through the weekend...

FRI 12/11 SAT 12/12 SUN 12/13

STL 70/1979 70/1991 73/1948
COU 73/1949 74/1889 75/1948
UIN 69/1949 67/1991 67/1948

Record hi lows through the weekend...

FRI 12/11 SAT 12/12 SUN 12/13

STL 53/1965 55/1929 56/1889
COU 55/1965 46/1929 55/1889
UIN 55/1965 42/1991 50/1927

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

821 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

AT 20Z...SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVELS REVEAL A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE
BORDER OF ARIZONA/MEXICO AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES NOSING NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL FROM THE LEE OF SOUTHERN
ROCKIES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS STILL EVIDENT BY
TD DEPRESSIONS OF 7 DEGREES OR GREATER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. LOCAL 88D IS INTERROGATING RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT OUTSIDE OF A LONE -SN REPORT FROM
KONL...THE ONLY SNOW SO FAR REPORTED OVER THE LBF CWA HAS BEEN
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND REPORTS FROM NORTHEASTERN
CHERRY COUNTY...DECIDED TO ADD EASTERN CHERRY COUNTY TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AT VALENTINE...AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW HAS
ACCUMULATED. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR WHICH HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE PRECIP FIELD ATTM...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF CHERRY COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS LIFTED
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR.
HAVE MODIFIED THE FORECAST IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO MENTION A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THREAT THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

SNOW CHANCES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN GOING IN THE SHORT
TERM. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS REMAIN FIXED ON A SOLUTION WHERE UPGLIDE ALONG THE 290-
300K SURFACES TARGET A MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ACCUMULATE WITH
SNOW TOTALS REACHING 2-4 INCHES ACROSS SHERIDAN...NORTHERN
GARDEN...AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FGEN
BAND CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY INTO WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH ITS THIN...KAIA HAS DROPPED BELOW 1SM WITH
MODERATE SNOW.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NOW WITH NO CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. SNOW HAS STRUGGLED TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS DEUEL
AND GRANT THUS FAR...BUT CLOUD TOPS OVER THE AREA CONTINUE TO COOL
AND OBS TO THE WEST ARE REPORTING SNOW...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT HEADLINE AT THIS POINT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE SNOW
OUT OF THE ADVISORY AREA BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY...SO AN EARLY EXPIRATION
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...THE
MODELS TRACK THE CLOSED H5 LOW FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY. A TROWAL/DEFORMATION BAND WILL
DEVELOP ON THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM PROVIDING
FOR A NICE BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ALL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE HEAVIEST
QPF WELL REMOVED FROM THE CWA. WE DO NOT PLAN ANY ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE SPS FOR OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF A EUSTIS TO BROKEN BOW TO ONEILL LINE.

NOTE THE FORECAST MODELS CAME IN TODAY WITH NOTICEABLY HIGHER WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH
THE FORECAST AND UNDERSTAND THAT WHERE THE BAND SETS UP...SOME
BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TO VARYING DEGREES. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY EVENING INTO SOUTHERN IOWA MONDAY
MORNING. A BAND OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE DEFORMATION AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK. THE
CURRENT FORECAST...USING A MULTI MODEL BLEND...KEEPS THE HEAVIEST
SNOW POTENTIAL JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE
FAST SYSTEM MOVEMENT AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE LIMITED TO 2
TO 3 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM STOCKVILLE
THROUGH BROKEN BOW AND ONEILL. MODELS ALSO MAY STILL TREND A BIT
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WITH EVEN LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
WILL CONTINUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POSSIBLE EVENT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND EMERGING ONTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY AND EMERGE ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS A POTENT AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM
TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS THE H7 LOW CENTER WILL
TRACK FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO EASTERN NEBRASKA WHICH IS A
FAVORABLE TRACK FOR SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER...A NORTHWARD
TREND OF THE UPPER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...WITH MOISTURE RETURN DISRUPTED FROM THE SYSTEM CROSSING
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

BREEZY NORTH WINDS TUESDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND WINDY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
AS WINDS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NEBR. THIS SYSTEM HAS
AN ABOVE AVERAGE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DUE TO
ACCUMULATING SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND
1200 FT AGL WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING.
VISBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO 5SM WITH ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS.
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...EXPECT OVERCAST CIGS OF 1500 FT AGL...BECOMING SCATTERED
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT CIGS AROUND 1000
FT AGL THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. SNOW IS LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH
VISBYS AS LOW AS 3/4SM. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...EXPECT OVERCAST CIGS OF
1500 FT AGL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ004-005-022-023-056-094.

UPDATE...BUTTLER
SYNOPSIS...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BUTTLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

358 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

12Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS CENTERED
SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WITH A LEAD DISTURBANCE NEAR THE 4
CORNERS. BROAD RIDGING ENCOMPASSES MUCH THE CORNBELT AND
SOUTHEASTERN US...WITH A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ANALYSIS
OF THE 12Z RAOBS SHOWED THE 12Z NAM INITIALIZED TOO WARM ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES...SUGGESTING THE TROUGH COULD DIG FURTHER SOUTH.
AT THE SURFACE...A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL ARCTIC FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. KVTN AND KANW ARE CURRENTLY /21Z/ AT 32 AND 33
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT RESPECTIVELY...WHEREAS LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A KONL TO KTIF TO KOGA LINE ARE ALL IN THE 40S AND 50S.
STRATUS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...BUT ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACKS THE MAIN H5 LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE EURO WHICH FAVORS A DELAYED ONSET
OF QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS REMAIN FIXED HOWEVER
THAT A COUPLED JET WILL INTERACT WITH A MID LEVEL FGEN BAND AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITHIN THE 290-300K SURFACES TO EVENTUALLY
PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS NW NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT
SANDHILLS BEGINNING AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE SHOWN TO LOWER TO 1MB...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
ANTICIPATED. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL
FALL BEFORE 00Z. OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS
/WEST OF A KVTN TO KOGA LINE/ WOULD EXPECT UPWARDS TO AN INCH BEFORE
00Z SUNDAY. WITH ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY...WE
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A MENTION OF FZDZ OR FREEZING RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY. THERE REMAINS FAR TOO MANY VARIABLES
THAT NEED TO COME INTO PLAY BEFORE ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS
REALIZED. WITH THE LATEST RUNS TRENDING SOUTH...WE FELT COMFORTABLE
REMOVING THE FREEZING PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. NOTE 12Z NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD FOR ICING TOMORROW AFTERNOON
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...BUT THE 18Z MODEL RUN BACKED OFF LIKE THE
OTHERS.

THE INCREASING STRATUS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN WHAT
GUIDANCE IS PROJECTING. WE USED A SMALL BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH ONLY LOWERED MIN T/S A COUPLE DEGREES.
IF SIGNIFICANT CLEARING REMAINS...THEN OUR T/S ARE AMBITIOUSLY
HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING CALIFORNIA NEVADA DEEPENS AND
CLOSES OFF EAST OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION SATURDAY EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW THEN FCST TO TRACK INTO THE OKLA/TX PNHDL REGION BY
12Z SUNDAY AND INTO FAR SCTRL KS BY 00Z MONDAY.

A DEFINED FGEN BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN
CHERRY COUNTY WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE
COUPLED UPPER JET BECOMES REMOVE FROM THE REGION.

CHANCE POPS TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. A WEDGE OF WARMER AIR IN PLACE EAST OF A
NORTH PLATTE THROUGH ONEILL LINE TO KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH SNOW TO THE WEST. ON SUNDAY...SNOW TO END
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AS A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS DIFFER ON POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
GFS WRT THE UPPER LOW. HIGHEST POPS FAVORED EAST OF NORTH PLATTE
THROUGH ONEILL LINE. CHANCES FOR SNOW AND RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH THE
DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AVAILABILITY OF COLDER AIR
AND EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. HIGHS MID TO UPPER 30S.

SNOW CHANCES END IN EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT.

HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE BEGINNING 12Z SATURDAY UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY WHERE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST. FURTHER EAST...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FOR ADDL COUNTIES IN
THE WRN SANDHILLS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD
THE UT/CO/WY BORDER REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW IN WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT
LIFTING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THE UPPER LOW DIFFER HOWEVER WRT THE GFS AND ECMWF. WITH A STRONG
TAP OF ARCTIC AIR...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW. LIKELY CHANCES
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE ACROSS THE NCTRL NEBR. HIGHS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S SOUTH. LOWS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS...ESPECIALLY IF SNOW COVER MATERIALIZES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST IS IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
THIS LOW CONFIDENCE WILL BE EXPRESSED IN THE FOLLOWING BREAK DOWN
FOR EACH RESPECTIVE TERMINAL.

AT THE KVTN TERMINAL...17Z VISIBLE SATELLITE AND METAR
ANALYSIS DEPICTED A THICK DECK OF STRATUS AND IFR CONDITIONS OVER
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS REGION OF STRATUS WAS MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AT APPROXIMATELY 5-10 KNOTS. THIS MOTION AND
SPEED WOULD BRING IFR CONDITIONS INTO THE KVTN TERMINAL BETWEEN 19Z-
20Z. WHILE THE 12Z RAP/NAM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THIS REGION OF STRATUS
ARRIVING AROUND THE 19-20Z HOUR...THE 12Z GFS MAINTAINS VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED UPON
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS...HAVE DECIDED TO
BASE THE NEXT 24 HOUR FORECAST AT THE KVTN TERMINAL OFF OF THE 12Z
RAP/NAM MODEL SOLUTIONS...AS THESE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY RESOLVING
THE STRATUS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL FAIRLY WELL.

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...SIGNIFICANT MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO
EXISTS. WHILE THE 12Z NAM BRINGS IN IFR CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...THE 12Z GFS ONLY REDUCES CEILING TO AS LOW AS 5000FT
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS...
THE 12Z RAP ONLY GOES OUT TO 09Z...AT WHICH TIME MVFR CONDITIONS
APPEAR POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE DECIDED FOR THE SAKE OF
FORECAST CONTINUITY TO MAINTAIN A REDUCTION IN CEILINGS AROUND THE
09ZHOUR...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED CEILINGS SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE WIDE MODEL SPREAD.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR NEZ004-022-056.

SYNOPSIS...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MOLDAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1134 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

A WEAK ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SD SHOULD BACK INTO NRN NEB
LATE THIS AFTN AND BE THE BASIS FOR STRATUS TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BE DRAWN FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING DROPS SOUTH INTO THE SRN
PLAINS.

THE ECM GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH
TODAY...50S SOUTH. A BREAK IN THE CIRRUS ACROSS ERN COLO WILL BE
MOVING OVERHEAD SOMETIME TODAY SUPPORTING MILD TEMPERATURES. THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE TAKEN AN EAST NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE WRN U.S. THIS
PRESENTS THE COLO ROCKIES AS THE SOURCE REGION FOR CIRRUS VS
WYOMING YESTERDAY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL DRAPE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. SFC OBS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 BUT NEITHER THE
NAM NOR THE SREF MODELS INDICATE FOG GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND LACK OF RADIATIVE COOLING.

LASTLY...THE MODELS SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS NW NEB TONIGHT. THIS WOULD POOL MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW BY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE COUNTIES AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHWEST NEB.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY...WITH A NEW LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FGEN BAND DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS SATURDAY. GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SURGING
NORTH...HOWEVER INITIAL MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THE MID/LOWER
LEVELS AND SATURATION WILL HAVE TO BE TOP DOWN. THUS EARLY IN THE
MORNING PRECIP TO BE LIGHT. PRECIP BECOMES HEAVIER FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND SFC TEMPS
BELOW 0C AND PRECIP TYPE ALL SNOW ACROSS THE WEST. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 WITH LOCALLY A BAND OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE ENDING
SUNDAY MORN.

MORE OF A CONCERN IS THE EASTERN ZONES. A WARM BUT DRY LOWER LEVEL
LAYER TO CAUSE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AND MAY BE TO MUCH FOR WEAK LIFT
TO OVERCOME. SAT MORN TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND WITH THE WARM
LAYER SOME MELTING TO OCCUR. IF ANYTHING REACHES THE GROUND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH IF THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST SLIGHTLY EXPECT ALL SNOW. SFC TEMPS LOOK TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BY LATE MORNING SO A SWITCH TO RAIN OR SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED...ALBEIT LIGHT. THE BETTER LIFT IS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES...BUT WITH THE SURGING MOISTURE LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE LOW POPS.

THE SECOND LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS
WITH THE MODELS. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE DEVELOPED THE LOW A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE NORTH...WITH THE EC CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONGEST
AND SLOWEST. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS THE
SAME...TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY...WHICH IS
WELL EAST OF THE CWA. SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COULD ROB
THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

BREAK FOR MONDAY THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z
MODELS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO WHAT I WAS
LOOKING AT YESTERDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED WITH MOISTURE AS
GULF REMAINS CLOSED...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE CROSSING THE ROCKIES
AND TOP DOWN. TEMPS PLENTY COLD AND PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS ACCUMULATING SNOWS...HIGHEST CHANCE NEAR
THE S DAKOTA BORDER AT THIS TIME...WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SYSTEM EXITS BY WED MORNING WITH DRY AND MORE WINTER LIKE
TEMPS...LIKELY AT OR BELOW NORMAL...PENDING SNOW COVER...TEMPS MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MOLDAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

725 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS JUST ADDED ON FOR THE ALBUQUERQUE
METRO AREA. ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CITY. HRRR AND RAP
MODELS INDICATE PERIODIC WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS BUTTING UP AGAINST
THE SANDIA/MANZANOS. AND WHILE THE CORE OF THE OVERALL METRO AREA
MAY NOT SEE ALL THAT MUCH ACCUMULATION THROUGH 2 AM...THERE COULD
BE SOME REFREEZING OF MELTED SNOW ON ROADS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO
TRAVEL ISSUES AND IMPACTS. MEANWHILE IN THE NORTHEAST...THE
SECONDARY SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING IN WITH
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING AND SNOWFALL BEING ENHANCED. IMPACTS FROM
THIS AND THE CONTINUED BLOWING AND TOMORROW`S WRAP-AROUND
DYNAMICS...YET TO BE OBSERVED...WILL KEEP IMPACTS GOING FOR THE
WARNING AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...514 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION GENERALLY JUST WEST OF KTCS AT 00Z WILL MOVE
TO NEAR KCVS AT 13/12Z. PRECIPTATION SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FAR
NW NM BEFORE 06Z WITH SHRASN CONTG RGV EWD THROUGH 13/12Z. MTS
WILL BE OBSCURED THRU 13/12Z IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
PRECIPITAITON AND BR. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE CENTRAL AND ERN NM AS
WELL WITH VRBL GUSTY WINDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
HERE WE GO AS STORM NUMBER ONE IS INVADING NM THIS PM. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MOVING ACROSS ERN NM ATTM. SECONDARY FRONT TO FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CRANKING UP OVER NE NM. STORM WILL SLOWLY
MOVE AWAY SUNDAY. NOT MUCH BREAK FROM THE NEXT STORM THAT STARTS
TO IMPACT NW NM MONDAY AND SPREADS SOMEWHAT E AND S MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOSTLY ENDING ON TUESDAY. MOSTLY DRY AND CHILLY THEREAFTER
ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NORMAL AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AND
PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW...CLOSED OFF NOW...HAS REACHED THE AZ AND NM BORDER. IT
WILL CROSS CNTRL NM TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT NE SUNDAY. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW CRANKING
UP TO OUR NE. WINDS WILL RESPOND OVER THE NE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND EXTENSIVE
BLOWING SNOW WILL CREATE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ON OCCASION OVER THE
NE. WILL LEAVE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS IS FROM THE MIDDAY UPDATE.
MAIN IMPACT AREAS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND EC ZONES DURING THE
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. COULD SEE MAIN WRAP AROUND SNOW
BAND WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE CLOSER TO THE I 40 CORRIDOR
RATHER THAN N OF IT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE
ACCUMULATION TO THE W THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. STILL NOT RULING OUT A BURST OF SNOW IN THE ABQ METRO AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK THAT COULD BRING A QUICK SLUSHY INCH TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WET ROADS
COULD ICE UP AND MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.

NOT MUCH BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM STORM WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS
FARTHER S AS WELL NOW ON THE MODELS...AND COULD WELL CONTINUE
THAT TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER
ROUND OF DECENT SNOW FOR THE N.

MOSTLY DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER WILL ENSUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A MODERATING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH NORMAL FRIDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. CHJ

.FIRE WEATHER...

44A COUPLE OF WINTER STORMS WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH WIND
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK. ONE IS ONGOING THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND THE OTHER WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BOTH OF THESE STORMS ARE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH IN RECENT MODEL RUNS.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
S NM TONIGHT BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO OK ON SUNDAY WITH
WRAP AROUND PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS NE NM. THE STORM SYSTEM HAS
ALREADY DRAWN A PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NM...AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS PLUNGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ACROSS THE NE WILL PROBABLY GUST AROUND 50 MPH TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY REACH NEAR 45 MPH ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. NW FLOW WILL THEN REMAIN BREEZY TO
WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED FROM
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS. THE I-40
CORRIDOR E OF ALBUQUERQUE SHOULD ALSO RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER
LOW EXITS ON SUNDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO PASS EASTWARD
OVER S CO MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THE POLAR JET
STREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...THEN LINGER OVER SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. A 999 MB SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE S CO ROCKIES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH
PLAINS NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THEY WILL THEN PERSIST
MAINLY ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TUESDAY. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF NM PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LESS WIDESPREAD...FAVORING WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.
NONETHELESS...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THOUGH
STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THE WEST WILL BRING VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT
THERE ON MONDAY...LIGHTER WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY
POOR VENTILATION.

BROAD AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...EXCEPT FROM THE MANZANO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
WHERE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTIER THAN OTHER AREAS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY CLIP NE NM WITH A COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND E OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT
MODELS ARENT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. 44

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ533-534.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ522-523-529-532.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ512>515-527-528-530-531.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ506-508.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ503-504-510-511-516>519-521.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

934 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNCHANGED WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN WHERE THE 23-02 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS...AND THE INCOMING 00 UTC NAM NEST...SUGGEST THAT
THE DENSE FOG MAY EXPAND LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

GIVEN WEBCAM AND ASOS/AWOS TRENDS THROUGH 0115 UTC...EXPANDED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...VALID THROUGH 15
UTC SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21-00 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HOLD DENSE FOG
AS REFLECTED IN THEIR VISIBILITY FORECASTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH NO LOW LEVEL AIRMASS EXCHANGE OVER A PARTIALLY MELTED
SNOWPACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

GIVEN WEBCAM TRENDS THROUGH 0030 UTC...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY INTO OLIVER...MORTON AND GRANT COUNTIES WITH THIS
UPDATE. ALSO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES THROUGH 15
UTC SUNDAY MORNING PER FORECAST VISIBILITY TRENDS IN THE 20-23
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

GIVEN WEBCAM AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 2130 UTC...AND THE 18
UTC NAM NEST AND 20 UTC HRRR VISIBILITY FORECASTS SUGGESTING DENSE
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THESE LOCATIONS...ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 12 UTC SUNDAY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN A THIN
LAYER OF ICE FORMING ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS FROM THE FOG. WILL
MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING
WITH STRATUS BUILD DOWN OVER THE PARTIALLY MELTED FRESH SNOW PACK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

CONCERNS THIS FORECAST INVOLVE FOG. ALSO LOW CLOUDS IMPACTING
TEMPERATURES. FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES WERE EXAMINED BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY SO DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

AT 2 PM CST...A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN CENTRAL MANT/SASK SOUTH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS BEING KEPT COOL AND MOIST FROM THE RECENT
SNOW AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A PERSISTENT STRATUS AREA EXTENDING
OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE RAP/HRRR MODEL INDICATES A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW. SOUTHEAST FLOW IS LESS PREFERABLE THAN EAST OR NORTHEAST
FLOW FOR TERRAIN INDUCED LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THE
NEARLY SATURATED STRATUS ENVIRONMENT OVER WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR FOG
FORMATION...SUFFICIENT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY NOT EXIST TO GENERATE
FREEZING DRIZZLE SO DECIDED TO WAIT.

WILL CONTINUE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WHERE STRATUS
PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH THE SOUTHWEST SEEING
SOME DIURNAL RANGE AS THEY ARE LARGELY OUT OF THE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

A WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN A BRUSH WITH A MID LATITUDE CYCLONE MID
WEEK FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER.

SUNDAY NIGHT A SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WOULD LEAVE CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH SURFACE STRATUS-TYPE CLOUDS. WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVING
EXITED TO THE EAST...SOME LINGERING STRATUS WITH ISOLATED DRIZZLE
ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WOULD
RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ALSO SUPPORT THIS...SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND TRACKS EAST OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING OVER THE FRONT RANGE ON
MONDAY. THE MODELS DEPICT THE STORM CENTERED OVER COLORADO/KANSAS BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST TO THE SD/MN/NE/IA BORDER BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AND NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF SNOW FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THIS TRACK SUGGESTS THE BETTER CHANCES OF MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OVER A PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE NORTH. LIGHT SNOW WOULD BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND LINGERING MAINLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING MID WEEK
SYSTEM...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONABLY COOL READINGS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WE MOVE TO
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED BEYOND THE MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017>023-025-034-036-037-042-047-048-050-051.

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

728 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 724 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

CONCERNS THIS FORECAST INVOLVE FOG. ALSO LOW CLOUDS IMPACTING
TEMPERATURES. FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES WERE EXAMINED BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY SO DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

WILL CONTINUE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WHERE STRATUS
PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH THE SOUTHWEST SEEING
SOME DIURNAL RANGE AS THEY ARE LARGELY OUT OF THE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

A WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN A BRUSH WITH A MID LATITUDE CYCLONE MID
WEEK FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017>023-025-034-036-037-042-047-048-050-051.

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

637 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

CONCERNS THIS FORECAST INVOLVE FOG. ALSO LOW CLOUDS IMPACTING
TEMPERATURES. FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES WERE EXAMINED BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY SO DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

WILL CONTINUE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WHERE STRATUS
PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH THE SOUTHWEST SEEING
SOME DIURNAL RANGE AS THEY ARE LARGELY OUT OF THE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

A WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN A BRUSH WITH A MID LATITUDE CYCLONE MID
WEEK FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017>021-034-042.

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

241 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

LATEST RADAR LOOPS HAVE THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
APPROACHING A NEW SALEM TO BEULAH LINE. EXPECT THE SNOW TO END
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY 4 PM. RADAR LOOPS ALSO SHOW THE
SYSTEM MAY BE LIFTING NORTH A BIT FASTER NOW SO THE SNOW WILL
PROGRESSIVELY END THIS EVENING NORTH. EXPECT STORM TOTALS 2 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH.
ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH CENTRAL SUCH AS
BISMARCK.

TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL SEE CLOUDS ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE A SOUTHWEST WIND COMPONENT AT H925-850 MAY
ERODE CLOUD DECK A BIT. OTHERWISE CLOUDY. BASED ON THE HRRR KEPT
SOME FOG IN AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTH.

ON SATURDAY WILL DONT SEE ANYTHING THAT WILL CLEAR CLOUDS SO
CLOUDY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE
ROCKIES TO 4-CORNERS AREA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH GLANCES THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN COULD RECEIVE 1/2 INCH
TO AN INCH OF SNOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. ON SUNDAY ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST
AND DIGS SOUTH TOWARDS CALIFORNIA. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES
CONTINUE REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THE LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE REACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MODELS DEVELOP THE STORM SYSTEM SUCH THAT THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW MOVES FROM COLORADO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
LATEST RUN OF THE MODELS SUGGESTS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD
RECEIVE MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL...AND THIS OCCURRING OVER A PERIOD FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK WOULD
SUGGEST THAT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WOULD RECEIVE THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BUT WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE AND ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES.

A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

LOW STRATUS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
BE SOME FOG TONIGHT DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. POSSIBILITY
KDIK COULD BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY SO WILL
KEEP IFR THERE FOR NOW UNTIL SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1100 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT
VERY WARM AIR INTO THE STATE. FAR-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY
SET RECORD DAYTIME HIGHS AND RECORD OVERNIGHT WARMTH THROUGH
MONDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FOR THE MID-
WEEK...BUT ONLY GET BACK NEAR NORMALS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 03Z PACKAGE.

REMOVED POPS ALMOST ENTIRELY FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN...BUT
KEPT THE 30-40 POPS UP NORTH. A FEW TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN POSSIBLE BY 12Z SUNDAY NEAR...AND TO THE NORTH OF ROUTE 6
IN NORTHERN PENN. OTHERWISE...JUST MSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH
PATCHY 3-5SM FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SFC WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO SWRN NEW YORK /WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY/...BUT IS HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SCOURING OUT THE SHALLOW...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN THE DEEP
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQ REGION WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE U40S TO
LOWER 50S AT 01Z.

00Z HRRR MAINTAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS AND POCKETS OF
COOLER MIN TEMPS IN THE L-M 40S THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE
LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE JUST A FEW BRIEF AND LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST...WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR OROGRAPHIC LIFT VIA THE SWRLY FLOW WILL
OCCUR.

POPS /FOR UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH/ WILL VARY FROM 30-40
PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR NW...TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND NCENT MTNS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TEMPS MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO GET GOING - ESP IN THE ERN
VALLEYS. BUT THEY DO NOT NEED TO GO FAR TO SET RECORDS ON SUNDAY
AFTN. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE M60S...AS 925MB
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE +12 TO +15C RANGE. THE PLACE THAT MIGHT
STRUGGLE WILL BE THE NERN MTNS. SOME LOW-LEVEL COOL AIR MAY STILL
BE TRAPPED THERE. L60S STILL A GOOD CALL THERE. THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD FINALLY LIFT WELL NORTH OF PA BEFORE NOON...SO NO FORCING
WILL BE HAD AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL /INCLUDING POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH/ WILL PEAK
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MAX AND MIN TEMPS FCST TO BE +20 TO +30
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. A MODEST COOL DOWN /RELATIVE TO THE
PRECEDING WARM SPELL - THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NOTICEABLY ABOVE
NORMAL/ IS FCST TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SHOT OF
SEASONABLY COLD AIR ARRIVING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

THE GREATEST RISK OF RAIN IS FOCUSED BETWEEN NOON AND MIDNIGHT
MONDAY AS UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM S PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...THEN TURNS EASTWARD AND ROLLS OVER THE TOP OF EAST COAST
RIDGE AS COLD FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON MON. WILL SEE SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON MON/MON NIGHT AS 850MB JET SWINGS THROUGH AND BACKS
TO THE WEST. FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF LOW OFF TO THE NE MAY KEEP
WINDS BREEZY INTO TUE...WITH COOLER YET STILL QUITE MILD TEMPS.

RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM
AND BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BY WED AS NEXT TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD AIR FROM SLIDING IN
FROM THE NW...WHILE FLOW OF MILD AIR AGAIN BEGINS TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...KEEPING EVEN OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE RIGHT UP THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO UPPER
MIDWEST LATE WEEK...WITH A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE BACK SIDE TO
REINFORCE IT AND BEGIN THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR THAT WILL DROP US
BACK TO SEASONAL READINGS. FROPA LOOKS TO BE THU-THU NIGHT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS. AS SECONDARY TROUGH
ARRIVES 850MB TEMPS FINALLY DROP BACK BELOW 0C ON FRI. NW/W FLOW
WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO THE SE 2/3RDS...BUT SCT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSS IN THE NW MTNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COULD BE
A BIT BREEZY LATER FRI INTO SUN IN BRISK LOW LEVEL FLOW.

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONLY BFD /AND POINTS EAST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN/ HOLDING
ONTO LOWER...MVFR CIGS CLOUDS AT 22Z . ELSEWHERE...LOW END MVFR
AND A FEW POCKETS OF HIGH-END MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL TREND LOWER
EARLY TONIGHT.

PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW LIFTED OROGRAPHICALLY OVER THE WRN MTNS
WILL LIKELY CREATE LOW STRATUS AND FOG THERE OVERNIGHT. THE ERN
VALLEYS WILL AGAIN HAVE SOME FOG...AS THEY WILL SEE SOME AREAS OF
TRANSIENT CLEARING TO START THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS IN MID DECEMBER.

EXPECT SOME LOW CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. AOO
MIGHT BE THE BEST LOCATION OVERNIGHT AND SUN AM FOR GOOD FLYING
WX. LATEST GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS THRU THE NIGHT FOR
THE NRN TIER ALONG A VERY SLOWLY- MOVING WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE SPOTTY. THE FRONT IS FINALLY NORTH OF THE STATE
BY 15Z...AND SHOWERS SHOULD GO WITH IT. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED
FOR SUN AFTN. WINDS BACK TO THE S SUN NIGHT AND MAY LEAD TO
RENEWED LOW CIGS/VIZ AND PERHAPS SOME DZ IN THE ERN TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...FROPA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR SPREADING FROM
W-E THRU THE DAY.

TUE...MVFR WEST EARLY...MAINLY VFR BY AFTERNOON.

WED-THU...NO SIG WX.

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM DECEMBER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORDS TO BE BROKEN
THROUGH MONDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE BUNCH.

MAX TEMPERATURES OF RECORD...
---------------------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION FRI/11TH SAT/12TH SUN/13TH MON/14TH TUE/15TH AVG HI/LO
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KMDT 67/1979 63/1948 64/1927 42/27
KIPT 59/1911 61/1901 65/1901 39/25
KAOO *68/2015* 61/2001 59/2006 38/24
KBFD *58/2015* 56/2001 54/2001 33/19
*STATE COLLEGE 63/1979 63/1927 60/2006 39/25
*COOP SITE THAT REPORTS VALUES FROM 7AM-7AM, SO HIGH TEMP WILL BE
VALUE FROM THE PREVIOUS 24-HRS RECORDED AT 7 AM (GENERALLY OCCURS
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE).

MAX-MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF RECORD (AKA WARMEST LOWS)...
---------------------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION FRI/11TH SAT/12TH SUN/13TH MON/14TH TUE/15TH
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KMDT 51/1911 45/1991 53/1901
KIPT 54/1911 47/1991 48/1927
KAOO 41/1956 45/1991 44/2001
KBFD *45/2015* 39/1964 45/1991 36/2006
*STATE COLLEGE 44/1927 47/2001 41/2006
*COOP SITE THAT REPORTS VALUES FROM 7AM-7AM.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...EVANEGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

843 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO SWRN NEW YORK /WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY/...BUT IS HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SCOURING OUT THE SHALLOW...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN THE DEEP
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQ REGION WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE U40S TO
LOWER 50S AT 01Z.

00Z HRRR MAINTAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS AND POCKETS OF
COOLER MIN TEMPS IN THE L-M 40S THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE
LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE JUST A FEW BRIEF AND LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST...WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR OROGRAPHIC LIFT VIA THE SWRLY FLOW WILL
OCCUR.

POPS /FOR UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH/ WILL VARY FROM 30-40
PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR NW...TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND NCENT MTNS.

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONLY BFD /AND POINTS EAST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN/ HOLDING
ONTO LOWER...MVFR CIGS CLOUDS AT 22Z . ELSEWHERE...LOW END MVFR
AND A FEW POCKETS OF HIGH-END MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL TREND LOWER
EARLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...FROPA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR SPREADING FROM
W-E THRU THE DAY.

TUE...MVFR WEST EARLY...MAINLY VFR BY AFTERNOON.

WED-THU...NO SIG WX.

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM DECEMBER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORDS TO BE BROKEN
THROUGH MONDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE BUNCH.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...EVANEGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

548 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

TODAY WILL SERVE AS A DAY OF TRANSITION FROM THE WIDESPREAD VERY
MILD CONDITIONS OF LATE...TO A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED REGIME
STARTING THIS WEEKEND. NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA TO NORTHWEST IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD...AS
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS SPREADS EASTWARD.
WAVE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHEARING/LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...SO
SHOULD SEE A LIMITED PUSH TO LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AS INVERTED
TROUGH SLIPS ACROSS THE CWA...LIKELY TO REACH AND STALL OUT WELL
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT
WITH THE INITIAL WAVE TODAY WOULD SEEM TO BE QUITE MINIMAL...AND
FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA.

MODELS NOT HANDLING THE LOWER CLOUDS PARTICULARLY WELL WHICH EXTEND
ALONG HIGHWAY 14. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE AN EAST TO
NORTHEAST COMPONENT...HAVE DOUBTS WHETHER SOME AREAS MAY SHAKE
CLOUDS AT ALL...WHICH SHOULD GET A REFRESHED SOUTHWARD PUSH BEHIND
THE INVERTED TROUGH. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE FAR
NORTH TO REACH VERY FAR INTO THE 40S...WHILE PERIODS OF THINNER
HIGHER CLOUDINESS SOUTH ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A RETURN TO THE
LOWER 50S.

WHILE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...DEPTH WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION THREAT.
WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT BETWEEN THE WAVE FROM TODAY TO THE NORTH
AND THE MAIN TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DO NOT
GET ANY COHERENT DEEPER LIFT GOING AS WELL. EVEN SHALLOW LIFT IN THE
MOIST LAYER IS PROBLEMATIC FOR THE MOST PART...WITH POTENTIAL
EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...A FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY OF HAVING ELEMENTS
COME TOGETHER...THUS HAVE NOT MADE MENTION OF ANY NON MEASURABLE
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY BETTER
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SIGNALS IN THE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT...LOWS SHOULD REMAIN UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

ON SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE AS OUR LARGE
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY PERIOD...AS WE HAVE A
LARGE DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES NEAR CHAMBERLAIN
SD WHERE DEEPER SATURATION EXISTS. BECAUSE OF THIS...OUR CENTRAL SD
AREA WILL LIKELY RECEIVE SNOWFALL...AT LEAST BY AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE COOL ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD
BE A LITTLE ACCUMULATION. BUT ELSEWHERE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOWER END CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY
LAYER...WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE A THREAT. DID NOT INCLUDE DRIZZLE
YET AS THAT IS JUST ONE MORE ELEMENT TO CONFUSE THINGS IN AN
ALREADY COMPLICATED MIXED PRECIP FORECAST REGIME. DESPITE THE DRY
MID LEVEL DRY LAYER...WHAT WE DO HAVE IS PRETTY STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEGINNING AT 290K AND IN A PRETTY DEEP LAYER. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LIQUID IN NORTHWEST IA...WITH A
POSSIBLE EXTREMELY LIGHT WINTRY MIX ALONG AN AXIS FROM LAKE
ANDES/YANKTON SD...NORTHEASTWARD TO BROOKINGS AND MARSHALL...WHICH
WOULD INCLUDE SIOUX FALLS. BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...IT IS QUITE DOUBTFUL THAT ANY MIXED PRECIP WILL ACTUALLY
STICK BECAUSE RATES WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO OVERCOME THE RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES AND THUS NOT ACCUMULATE. FOR SATURDAYS HIGHS...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A VERY ISOTHERMAL DAY FROM 925MB...SO RELIED
HEAVILY ON TEMPERATURES FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES ALONG
HIGHWAY 14...PROGRESSIVELY WARMING TO THE LOWER 40S AROUND SIOUX
CITY AND STORM LAKE IA.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN MOVING THE UPPER LOW ABOUT DUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO RAPIDLY
SATURATE SATURDAY EVENING WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO USHER IN THE PRECIP
IN EARNEST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID...QPF AMOUNTS
STILL LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT WITH A LACK OF STRONG FOCUS MECHANISM OTHER
THEN ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAK...AND THE UPPER QG
FORCING IS VERY BROAD...ACTUALLY EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM TEXAS TO
CANADA. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS IS ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN...WHERE
ELEVATED MU CAPES ARE AROUND 250-300 J/KG PROVIDING A BIT OF
INSTABILITY. SO THOSE AREAS COULD RECEIVE A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT DECENT SNOW IS A THREAT IN OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES...AGAIN TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY
AROUND CHAMBERLAIN AND WEST OF HURON. IN BETWEEN OUR WEST AND
NORTHWEST IOWA ZONES...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SAME AXIS MENTIONED IN THE ABOVE PARAGRAPH.
MOST CONCERNING IS THE HEART OF SOUTHWEST MN WHERE ICE ACCUMULATIONS
COULD RANGE FROM 0.05 TO A 0.10 OF AN INCH SOMEWHAT DUE TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH LIGHTER ICE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE OFFERING
ELSEWHERE. CONCERNING LOWS...MANY OF THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE VALUES
LOOKED TOO COOL GIVEN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND VERY
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COUPLED WITH A LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THEREFORE BLENDED WARMER ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL VALUES INTO THE MIX
WHICH KEEPS LOWS ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 60 IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO SEVERELY DIVERGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GEM GLOBAL AND GFS ARE IN ONE CAMP...IN LIFTING THE UPPER LOW INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN BY 12Z MONDAY. THE ECMWF SLOWS THE
LOW PROGRESSION DOWN AND IS ONLY IN SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO BY
12Z MONDAY. FOR NOW...WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS OF THE
GEM AND GFS. HOWEVER IT IS DIFFICULT TO TOTALLY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF
AS IT WAS FIRST TO SHOW THE MAJOR SNOW STORM IN MID NOVEMBER. JET
DYNAMICS ARE NOT WELL PLACED WITH THIS EVENT WITH ANY MODEL TO AID
IN REAL STRONG ASCENT...AND IT DOES NOT LOOK AS UNSTABLE AS THE
NOVEMBER EVENT. BUT IF THE ECMWF WOULD VERIFY WITH ITS SLOWER
SOLUTION...THAT WOULD ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
TO FILTER DOWN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND GIVE A DECENT SWATH OF
SNOW BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. SO IT NEEDS WATCHED. DID USE SOME OF THE ECMWF HOWEVER
IN RADICALLY INCREASING POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 60 OVER SUPERBLEND...ALTHOUGH IRONICALLY SO FAR THE
SUPERBLEND QPF AMOUNTS DID NOT LOOK TOO BAD. BUT AGAIN IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...REAL HIGH POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
EVERYWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WORRY ABOUT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS MOST
BULLISH ON THE GEM GLOBAL. SURFACE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT STILL LOOK
COLD ENOUGH TO GIVE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. THE GEM GLOBAL WOULD GIVE THE
MOST SNOW AMOUNTS...GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS GENERATED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS
AS THEY PLACE THE LOW WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. ONE THING FOR
CERTAIN...MUCH MORE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS IS HOVERING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KHON TO KMML...BUT A BREAK NOTED AROUND
KBKX. THIS BREAK LIKELY TO PUSH BRIEFLY INTO KHON AREA LATER INTO
THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY STEER THE
LARGER MVFR/IFR CLOUD MASS TO THE NORTH BACK INTO THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS NOT PROVIDING ANY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE ON
TIMING OF THIS...OR THAT IT EVEN EXISTS...ADDING TO THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE. RAP SEEMS TO PROVIDE THE BEST ROUGH GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT. WOULD EXPECT THAT ONCE THE INVERTED TROUGH SLIPS PAST TAF
SITES LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING...NEAR SURFACE WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TOWARD THE NORTH FROM EAST OR NORTHEAST
SHOULD PUSH MVFR CEILINGS SOUTHWARD WITH A BIT MORE FORCE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EVEN KSUX AREA SHOULD GET IN ON THE NON VFR
CONDITIONS STARTING GRADUALLY AFTER 06Z.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHAPMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

326 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW)...

YOU MAY HAVE TO LOOK AT THE CALENDAR TO REALIZE THAT IT IS MID-
DECEMBER. IN FACT...EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS WILL TOP OUT JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH A TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SOUTHWESTERN INTO EASTERN TEXAS. CLOSER TO HOME...DECENT LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WITH SOME OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL ASCENT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THERE COULD BE A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN
THE FORECAST BUT IT LOOKS AS THROUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. WITH THIS
SAID...DO NOT EXPECT ANY AREAS OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 50S TONIGHT.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW. THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE NORTH. SATURDAY WILL START OFF
WITH CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FEW PEAKS
OF SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGHER
HEIGHTS AND INCREASED INSOLATION...EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO
NEAR RECORD VALUES. THE RECORD VALUE FOR CHATTANOOGA TOMORROW IS 72
DEGREES AND THINK THIS WILL BE THE RECORD THAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE
BROKEN.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

UNSETTLED WEATHER AHEAD AS TROUGH AFTER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE LONG TERM.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW TO MID 50S. SUNDAY THE ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUES AS A DEEP AND ROBUST TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS MAINTAINS A STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM....RAISING TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO
LOOK DRY AT THIS POINT WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND MORE SO TOWARD EVENING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS BECOME
QUITE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AS THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH
APPROACHES. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE STRONGEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z MONDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. AS OF NOW...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 30S
WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH DUE TO THE STRONG 850MB JET PUSHING THROUGH
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...IF WINDS BACK A TAD MORE AT THE 850MB LEVEL
WE COULD POSSIBLY HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN WAVES. THE MAIN
LINE OF SHOWERS MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVE OUT BY LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH AS THERE IS VERY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT IN THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS. OUR FAR
WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE THE SUN RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS NE OUT OF
THE AREA.

BRIEF ZONAL FLOW RETURNS ON TUESDAY GIVING US A DRY DAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT
SHOWERS. THEN ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...GIVING US YET ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS. OVERALL...A MILD AND
UNSETTLED LONG TERM IN STORE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 74 55 71 / 10 10 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 73 51 71 / 10 10 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 58 72 51 71 / 10 10 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 70 46 71 / 10 10 10 10

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

MA/SR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

337 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT ARE ON DRIZZLE AND FOG POTENTIAL.
LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN
IOWA...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LIFT A WEAK WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS/LOW
CLOUDS MOVING IN. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AT TIMES
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT IT SHOULD MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS RIDGES AND BLUFF TOPS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BUT THE BULK OF
THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD THEN SEE
A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ON SATURDAY WITH MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECTED
TO BE OVERCAST AND DRY. A VIGOROUS TROUGH THEN DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS TONIGHT AND PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES IN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1 TO
1.5 INCHES PRODUCING STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF PLUS 4 TO PLUS 5.
TEMPERATURES ARE EQUALLY AS IMPRESSIVE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO 50S TO POSSIBLY THE UPPER 50S AT A FEW
LOCATIONS...PLACING US IN RECORD TERRITORY AT SOME LOCATIONS. THE
RAINS SET IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE GREATEST SURGE OF MOISTURE
LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NORMALLY WITH
SEMI-FROZEN GROUND WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT FLOODING CONCERNS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...UNFROZEN SOILS WILL HELP TO MITIGATE RUNOFF
AND GIVEN PROLONGED NATURE OF THE RAINFALL...RIVER RISES WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN. MANY RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.4
INCHES WOULD FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND STARTS TO
WRAP COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. WE COULD SEE A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW IF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES
SOON ENOUGH....WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THE LOW WILL
THEN EXIT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE QUICK ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST AND LOOKS TO BRING MUCH COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW.
THE BULK OF THE RAIN/SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ACROSS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREAS COULD GET IN ON
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON TUESDAY...THEN COOL INTO THE 20S
AND 30S THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LIFT OUT
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE 11.12Z NAM AND 11.15Z RAP STILL
SUGGEST THE AREA OF MOISTURE WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GET
PUSHED NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS. WILL GO WITH
THIS TREND OF THE CEILINGS COMING UP TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
FOR BOTH SITES. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IFR
CEILINGS IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. THIS
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET LIFTED NORTH AND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING MORE IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TO THE REGION. THIS TREND WAS
SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND WILL CONTINUE THIS BUT PUSH
THE TIMING BACK AS BOTH THE RAP AND NAM SHOW THIS BEING A LITTLE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE. SOME CONCERN WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY DRIZZLE
WITH THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND HAVE LEFT THIS OUT FOR NOW AS THE BEST
LIFT THROUGH THE SATURATED LAYER LOOKS TO OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE
MOVES IN AND BY THE TIME THE SATURATED LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT DRIZZLE...THE LIFT BECOMES VERY WEAK.

.HYDROLOGY...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

TOTAL RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
2.4 INCHES. RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALTHOUGH NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...PLAN ON SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES.
THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERWAYS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY
TUNED TO LATEST FORECASTS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1105 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

CHALLENGES THROUGH TONIGHT INCLUDE CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPERATURES...AND
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WILL FOLLOW A
BLEND BETWEEN THE 11.00Z NAM/ECMWF/GEM THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH
THE MUCH DRIER GFS BEING AN OUTLIER IN THE SHORT-TERM.

FOR TODAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. RAP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
SUGGESTS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
HIGHER CLOUDS FURTHER SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH A COOLER
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S STORM SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY/S
READINGS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WI TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST WI.

SURFACE TO 850 HPA LAYER SLOWLY SATURATES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AND WITH MODEST LIFT ALONG THE 285 TO 290 K ISENTROPIC SURFACE...
EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO IMPACT WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

WILL KEEP 20 POPS FOR ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE ON SATURDAY...BUT
MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AS PRIMARY ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS AN
IMPRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG
WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN VERY
WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS FOR MID-DECEMBER. PWATS LOOK TO INCREASE
ABOVE ONE INCH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH IS 3 TO 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ACCORDING TO THE 11.00Z
NAEFS. SURFACE FRONT STALLS OUT ON SUNDAY...BISECTING THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
SIGNIFICANT LIFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA INTO SOUTHWEST MN AS 0 TO 6 KM MUCAPE RISES TO BETWEEN 100 AND
300 J/KG. TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.25 INCHES. SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

DESPITE THE CALENDAR...PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALL RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS 925 HPA TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO BETWEEN +11 AND +13
CELSIUS BY 18Z SUNDAY. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRIMARY DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 11.00Z GLOBAL MODEL SUITE AT
THIS TIME IS THE SPEED IN WHICH THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM PLACE THE SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH ITS
LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MN. THE FORMER CONSENSUS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT
IN A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION MORE
QUICKLY...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR LINGERING PRECIP TO TURN
INTO A WINTRY MIX. AT THIS TIME...THINK VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIP
WILL OUTRUN THE COLDER AIR WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW FLAKES ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NATION/S MID-SECTION BY LATE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BUT GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MN...KEEPING THE
FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE SYSTEM/S DRY SLOT. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SUPERBLEND CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTIES WITH A SYSTEM ON DAYS 5-7. OF GREATER CERTAINTY FOR
NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL EACH DAY...NEARING SOMETHING
CLOSER TO MID-DECEMBER NORMALS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY LOOK TO
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM GIVEN
THE ABNORMAL WARMTH OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

TOTAL RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 1.5
TO 2.25 INCHES. RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALTHOUGH NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...PLAN ON SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES.
THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERWAYS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY
TUNED TO LATEST FORECASTS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY....DAS/ROGERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

529 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

MVFR STRATUS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW DEPARTING INTO ONTARIO WERE
ALREADY DECREASING WEST/SOUTH OF KRST. THE DECREASE OF THIS CLOUD
DECK LOOKING TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU THE EARLY/MID MORNING
HOURS AS THE SFC-850MB FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHERLY. A PERIOD OF GOOD VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE LATE MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS THE AREA WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN SPREADS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA FOR THE LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS LOOKING TO
INITIALLY MOVE IN AS AN MVFR DECK IN THE 2000-2500 FT RANGE...LOWER
INTO THE 500-1500 FT RANGE BY LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE
LOWER /500-1000 FT/IFR/ CLOUD HGTS AND SOME MVFR BR VSBYS TONIGHT
WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH MORE 1000-1500 CIGS
EXPECTED FOR THE MS/WI RIVER VALLEY SITES. LIFT IN THE LOWER
SATURATED LAYER LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT NOT OVERLY STRONG...AND
LEFT ANY MENTION OF -DZ OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....DAS/ROGERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

345 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015

CLOUD FORECAST PRESENTING SOME CHALLENGES. MOSTLY VFR CLOUD DECK
RETURNED EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT IFR/MVFR CLOUDS SIT JUST A BIT
FARTHER NORTH...AND MESO MODELS RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THIS COULD/WILL DROP TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR...THUS IMPACTING
KRST/KLSE. ITS NOT A DONE DEAL BY ANY MEANS...BUT LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS AND MODEL RUNS SUGGEST ITS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. WILL OPT TO
ADD SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS...WITH EXPECTATIONS THAT THE
CLOUDS WILL LIFT BACK NORTH BEFORE 18Z. SOME VSBY REDUCTION ALSO
LOOK LIKELY...WITH PROBABILITIES FAVORING MVFR...LOWER FARTHER
NORTH.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD USHER IN MORE
LOW CIGS FRI EVENING. SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR -DZ TOO...WITH IMPACTS
TO VSBYS IF IT WOULD DEVELOP. WILL ADD MVFR CIGS FOR THE MOMENT...
BUT LEAVE PCPN FREE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY...DAS/ROGERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

521 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 510 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE TONIGHT TO
ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...AND TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR SIOUX COUNTY OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA SINCE STEADY SNOWFALL HAS NOT DEVELOPED ACROSS
THAT COUNTY TODAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6
HOURS. BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1 TO 2 MILES.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH ROADS WILL
OCCASIONALLY BE SNOW COVERED...THERE IS MORE CONCERN ABOUT ICY
ROADS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW
20S WITH WET ROADS.

ANOTHER FORECAST CONCERN IS FOG TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDICATING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BRIEFLY OVER THE LARAMIE
VALLEY AND MORE SO OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF I25. RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE ABOUT THIS SCENARIO DUE TO LLVL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION IS WEAK. MIGHT NEED TO ADD
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST...BUT WILL DEAL WITH THE CURRENT
WINTER HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS OUT
WEST ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN
BAND OF LIFT CONTINUES TO SHOW COOLING CLOUD TOPS THAT CORRESPOND
PRETTY WELL WITH THE BANDED SNOW BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR IMAGERY.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING BAND SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED WINTER HEADLINES FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE
WEST. ROADS LOOK PRETTY GOOD OUT THAT WAY...THOUGH WITH LATE DAY
EARLY EVENING COOL DOWN...COULD SEE THESE ROADS BECOMING SLICK
WITH BLACK ICE. AS FOR THE ADVISORIES FROM CHEYENNE EAST...KEPT
THEM GOING AS SCHEDULED...WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED.

700MB WINDS BEGIN PICKING UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVES INTO EASTERN WYOMING. GFS WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THEY
WERE PREVIOUS FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL REACHING 45KTS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONTINUED SOME BLOWING SNOW OUT WEST FOR THE
WIND PRONE AREAS. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THESE WINDS GET...MAY
NEED A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM MOVES
QUICKLY EAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NEVADA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CLOSE
OFF AND DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AS HAS BEEN TYPICAL OF THIS WINTER SEASON SO
FAR...THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICALLY WITH THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...BUT THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS IS THAT THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL COME OUT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE SYSTEM WE ARE WORKING
TODAY. ALSO GIVEN THAT LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE DEEPENING JUST TO
OUR SOUTH...IT IS ALSO ADVERTISED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE MAIN SNOW EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ENOUGH DURATION TO
EXPECT HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND JUST TO THE
EAST. IT IS TOO EARLY RIGHT NOW TO GET SPECIFIC WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WITH ANY PRECISION...HOWEVER IF THE MODEL TRENDS HOLD WE
COULD EXPECT HIGHER IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING
AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LATER FORECASTS WILL REFINE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND TIMING ON THIS NEXT SNOW EVENT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TERMINALS AND KCYS UP TO 06Z TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...BUT A FEW MODELS DO
SHOW FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE IN ADDITION TO THE LARAMIE VALLEY. WILL START TO MENTION
THIS FOG FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED
AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS AREAS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
WYOMING HAVE SEEN ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS PAST LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. STRONG WINDS STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AND WILL KEEP
HUMIDITIES IN CHECK. ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-
003-019>021-054-055.

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1257 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORTED CONTINUED THIN CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP CAUSE
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. THE MAV AND MET MOS INDICATED FOG. THE 23Z HRRR
CONFINED MOST OF THE FOG WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SREF HAD
SIGNIFICANT FOG PROBABILITIES. WE FORECASTED AREAS OF FOG DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND RAP SHOWED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE SOUTHERN SC
COAST SUNDAY MORNING. LOW STRATUS MAY BE A CONCERN AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL MIDLANDS. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN TO PERSIST. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. MODELS
INDICATE MORE CLOUDINESS SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PWAT AROUND ONE INCH WITH H85 WINDS
REACHING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO USE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
AROUND 60.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SIMILAR SET UP TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE...ALREADY LEADING
TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. AGS HAS ALREADY DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/4SM
BUT HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING QUITE A BIT WHILE OGB/CUB HAVE BEEN MORE
STABLE WITH MVFR VSBYS. EXPECT MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT
CUB/OGB/AGS THROUGH 09Z-10Z THEN DETERIORATING AT OGB/AGS TO IFR
AND POSSIBLY LIFR. MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT CAE/DNL AFTER
10Z AS WELL BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST COULD HAVE
SOME IMPACT AND LEAD TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
14Z-15Z AS MIXING COMMENCES AND CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
BY THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

.CLIMATE...
NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY...
CAE...59. AGS...60.

RECORD MAX TEMPS SUNDAY...
CAE...80.
AGS...81.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1153 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Temps will actually drop to below normal for middle Dec for Thur
through Sat. MEX guidance supports cooler, below normal temps, but
believe guidance is too low.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Mostly VFR conditions across central IL late this evening. MVFR
conditions in -shra/ceilings over southern MO poised to move into
central IL over next few hours as increasing moist southerly flow
takes place overnight ahead of an approaching low. Expect gradual
degradation in conditions through the forecast period as the low
approaches. Chances of rain showers increasing over western
airports later tonight into Sunday morning while eastern IL at DEC
and CMI likely remains dry through 18Z/Sunday with just isolated
showers possible Sunday morning. S winds around 10 kts
overnight...gradually increasing to around 20 kts from 12-18Z
Sunday...with gusts to around 30 kts through the afternoon hours.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2015

Record highs for the weekend:

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton
CLIMATE...Auten

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1154 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

JAKUB

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

WDSPRD -RA & OCNL EMBEDDED TSRA WL CONT ACRS ALL AREAS THE REST OF
THE NGT W/ EQUALLY WDSPRD IFR/LIFR CIGS & VSBYS. WITH THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVG VERY SLOWLY SE THRU SUN MRNG NLY WINDS FROM 17-22
KTS SUSTAINED W/ 25-30KT GUSTS WOULD PREVAIL ACRS CNTRL & SC KS
THRU SUN AFTN. (SUCH VELOCITIES SHUD ARRIVE KICT ~09Z).

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 48 49 33 53 / 100 100 50 0
HUTCHINSON 43 44 32 50 / 90 100 80 10
NEWTON 47 49 32 51 / 100 100 60 10
ELDORADO 52 53 34 54 / 100 100 40 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 51 52 34 56 / 100 90 40 0
RUSSELL 36 37 29 44 / 90 100 90 10
GREAT BEND 37 38 29 45 / 90 100 90 10
SALINA 43 44 31 46 / 90 100 80 10
MCPHERSON 43 44 31 48 / 90 100 80 10
COFFEYVILLE 61 62 38 56 / 100 100 40 0
CHANUTE 60 60 37 55 / 100 100 40 10
IOLA 60 60 37 54 / 100 100 40 10
PARSONS-KPPF 60 61 38 56 / 100 100 40 10

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1208 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...

THIS REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEGRADE SOUTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS
STEADY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN IN PLACE. ARC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN DETROIT METRO AREA SHOULD BE
ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE RICHER THETA E CONTENT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW COHERENT AND
ORGANIZED CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW.
SUSPECT THAT AS THE THETA E CONTENT BEGINS TO OVERRUN THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE AFFECTED. THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE TAF FORECAST IS EXACTLY WHAT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND IFR THERE. VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED BY THE
MORNING HOURS AS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.

FOR DTW...THE DECENT WARM SECTOR HAS MAINTAINED SOME INTEGRITY THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS HOLDING IN THE MVFR RANGE. WILL BE WATCHING THIS
SECONDARY MOISTURE SURGE AND THE EFFECT IT WILL HAVE ON CIGS/VSBYS.
DESPITE THE LACK OF OBSERVATIONS NEARBY...THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE WITH IFR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY. CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED TO MEDIUM FOR IFR
CIGS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET.

* LOW FOR CEILING BELOW 200 FEET OR VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE THIS
MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 829 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015

DISCUSSION...

MARINE...

HYDROLOGY...

CLIMATE...

A RECORD HIGH WAS SET AT DETROIT TODAY...WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY
FALLING TOMORROW ACROSS ALL CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 12
DETROIT: 62 (2015)
FLINT: 61 (1949)
SAGINAW: 61 (1949)

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 13 (WARMEST LOW)
DETROIT: 50 (1881)
FLINT: 40 (2001)
SAGINAW: 44 (1920)

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 13
DETROIT: 60 (1881)
FLINT: 55 (1991)
SAGINAW: 56 (1920)

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 14 (WARMEST LOW)
DETROIT: 51 (1975)
FLINT: 52 (1975)
SAGINAW: 50 (1975)

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ047-048-053-
054-060-061.

LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......CB
DISCUSSION....BT/SS
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY...SF
CLIMATE......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1155 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH NORTH INTO SRN MN BETWEEN 08-10Z
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI THROUGH SUNDAY. A
NARROW BAND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WRN MN
OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING AREAS NEAR AXN BUT CONFIDENCE IS NO LONGER
HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE MORE THAN VCSH IN THE TAF THERE.

KMSP...POOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 30+ HOURS.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 10-12Z EARLY SUNDAY.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1143 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

NO CHANGES TO EVENING FORECAST. CORRIDOR OF 700HPA LIFTING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA THIS EVENING...BRINGING FOG AND DRIZZLE TO
MOST AREAS AS LOWER LEVELS REMAIN ABUNDANTLY SATURATED.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY HOLDING AROUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING. HOWEVER...A FEW FAVORABLE LOCATIONS MAY DIP BELOW
FREEZING FOR A TIME WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LATEST SPC HRRR HAS GOOD PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH ACROSS IOWA...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS IT LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE TIMING HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW...WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE ACCUMULATING RAIN SHOWERS REACHING NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AROUND DAYBREAK...MOVING INTO THE TWIN PORTS/LAKE SUPERIOR MID-
MORNING SUNDAY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AFFECTING THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM
SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES THROUGH
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL MAKE THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE FORECAST VERY SENSITIVE AND VERY MESSY.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTICS OF THE SYSTEM...WITH
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA NOW RETREATING OFF TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING MOVES
NORTH- NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND UP INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA
BY SUNDAY EVENING. MAIN DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE SPEED OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS IT SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND OF COURSE IN THE DETAILS OF
PTYPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WHICH BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST MODELS TOWARDS MORNING...RATHER THAN THE EARLIER
GFS AND ECMWF. HOWEVER...GIVEN OUR CURRENT STRATUS WOULD NOT BE AT
ALL SURPRISED TO SEE AN AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE FORM
DURING THE EVENING THAT SPREADS SLOWLY NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE TRIED TO KEEP IT SIMPLE FOR NOW AND
HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE EVENING THAT SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH. PTYPE
TONIGHT IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE MAINLY
CHANCES OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NORTH.
AS THE MAIN WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TOWARDS MORNING AND
AFFECTS THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY WARM AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD KEEP PARTS OF OUR SOUTH EAST IN MAINLY
RAIN...AND MOST OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY IN ALL SNOW...BUT IN BETWEEN
WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS FAVOR MAINLY
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET...BUT ONLY POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE SURFACE
COLD AIR IS JUST NOT DEEP ENOUGH OR COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THIS MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES
CONCERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP OUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN...BUT WE MAY
NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS MUCH CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD NECESSITATE MORE SNOW OR ICE...OR BOTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

A DEEP AND MOIST SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE MN AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE...WHERE A LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS NEAR THE SFC AND
A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT MAY CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FZDZ.

AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS EXPECTED
TO BE A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 61 AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE TRANSITION OF RAIN
TO SNOW MAY BE OCCUR QUITE RAPIDLY IF THERE REMAINS ENOUGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR MASS
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH...AND THE STRONG VERTICAL MOTION IN THE
DGZ DEVELOPS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME
FOR RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIOD ON MONDAY. MAY SEE A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM THE
ARROWHEAD SWWD INTO NRN AITKIN COUNTY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
TWIN PORTS AREA...AWAY FROM THE LAKE MAY SEE AROUND AN INCH. THE
OTHER IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE
WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THE AREAS OF FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STEADY AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY.

A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LINGERING LIGHT DRIZZLE/FZDZ POSSIBLE. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST LATE TUE AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR FZDZ AND SNOW. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
MOVES DIRECTLY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW.

AS THE SECOND SYSTEM MID WEEK EXITS TO THE EAST THE DOOR WILL OPEN
FOR A PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
850MB TEMPS -15 TO -20 DEG C WILL DEFINE THIS AIR MASS AND POUR IN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A TIGHT E-W
PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR. THE
ACTIVE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT FOR LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES AROUND MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR AT
LEAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LATE THUR THROUGH FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY
FOG WITH DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE BORDERLAND...IMPACTING THE KINL TERMINAL. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURE
PROFILES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AT KDLH AND KHYR...AN
INITIAL MORNING MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN AT KBRD AND KHIB...AND ALL
SNOW AT KINL. LATEST NAM BUFR PROFILES DO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLE SLEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT KDLH AND KBRD.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE PLACEMENT AND TIMING ARE LOW SO HAVE
KEPT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AND WILL REVISIT ON FUTURE ISSUANCE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 36 33 33 / 60 90 90 100
INL 29 34 28 29 / 40 70 20 20
BRD 33 38 33 33 / 60 70 50 50
HYR 36 41 39 40 / 80 100 100 100
ASX 36 40 37 38 / 70 100 100 100

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...GRANING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1007 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY
FOG WITH DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE BORDERLAND...IMPACTING THE KINL TERMINAL. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURE
PROFILES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AT KDLH AND KHYR...A MIX
OF SNOW AND RAIN AT KBRD AND KHIB...AND ALL SNOW AT KINL. LATEST
NAM BUFR PROFILES DO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF POSSIBLE SLEET SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AT KDLH AND KBRD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING ARE LOW SO HAVE KEPT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AND
WILL REVISIT ON FUTURE ISSUANCE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 36 33 33 / 60 90 90 100
INL 29 34 28 29 / 40 70 20 20
BRD 33 38 33 33 / 60 70 50 50
HYR 36 41 39 40 / 80 100 100 100
ASX 36 40 37 38 / 70 100 100 100

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...GRANING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

313 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

The main concern for this forecast resides in the first 36 hours of
the forecast period. That concern will come in the form of the
potential of a few rounds of heavy rainfall and the residual
flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams.

A nearly stationary cold front is extending from near Des Moines
into northwest Missouri and further southwest to near Wichita. Warm,
moist air resides ahead of the front with showers and a few
thunderstorms already streaming into the area early this morning.
This cold front is expected to remain stationary today as a few
waves of very efficient moisture pushes into the area. This is
evident by PWAT values that are near 400% of normal for this time of
year which are ranging between 1.50"-1.75". As such, have PoPs near
100%. Temperatures should remain fairly steady today as the front
remains stationary however, there should be a fairly sharp gradient
in temperatures across the front with northwest Missouri
experiencing highs in the upper 40s where in the warm sector highs
will be in the low to mid 60s.

Tonight a surface low will develop along the front across northwest
Missouri, and move northeastward, this will help push the front east
a bit. However, albeit lighter in nature, rain should persist into
tonight for most of the CWA. It will not be until tomorrow morning
when the upper level low associated with this system finally moves
through the CWA that the bulk of precipitation moves east of the
area. However, on the back side of the upper low there may be some
deformation-type rain across the northern CWA. All told, by Monday
afternoon most areas across the CWA will have received between 1.50"-
2.50" of precipitation. It is in that range that most headwater
guidance resides as well which makes flooding a concern. Although
major flooding is not expected, there certainly could be minor (to
even moderate) flooding along a few areas rivers, creeks and
streams. Temperatures will also be cooler behind the cold front on
Monday with highs in the 40s.

Beyond this rain event the forecast looks relatively benign. Warm
air advection briefly returns to the area on Tuesday out ahead of
another upper level system. Highs will warm into the upper 40s to
near 60. However, Tuesday night, the upper level low will move from
western Nebraska into northern Iowa forcing yet another cold front
through the area. This frontal passage will remain mainly dry as
moisture will be meager however, there could be a few light rain or
snow showers across northern Missouri Tuesday night. Temperatures
for the second half of the work week will return to seasonably
normal conditions with highs generally in the mid 30s to mid 40s as
broad troughing aloft reside across the central CONUS.

Saturday looks to be a transition day as upper level troughing
begins to shift eastward as upper level ridging begins to move into
the region from the west. High pressure at the surface however, will
still keep temperatures seasonable with highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s. Sunday, both the EC and GFS advertise the upper level
ridge pushing into the region and allowing temperatures to warm.
Expect highs in the lower 40s to lower 50s.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Steady rain will continue to cross into the area from the south.
Initially, VFR ceilings will prevail with this precipitation. A
break in the activity overnight is expected along a dry slot depicted
on radar imagery over eastern Kansas. As temperatures cool in the
early morning hours, IFR ceilings will develop, with LIFR ceilings
possible at KSTJ. A second and more persistent round of showers will
then prevail through much of Sunday with MVFR ceilings and
visibilities. This will finally begin to dissipate Sunday evening,
with lingering vicinity precipitation rounding out the forecast
period.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0930 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

We have issued a Wind Advisory for southwestern Missouri from 5 AM
until noon on Sunday.

While the standard impact to high profile vehicles is a concern,
these winds may also blow around loose objects such as Christmas
and holiday decorations.

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 227 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

This evening lift will start to develop across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas and will spread north and expand across the
area into the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

Multiple rounds of showers with embedded scattered thunderstorms
will persist into early Sunday evening as a low pressure system
moves through the region. MVFR will prevail across the region,
with brief IFR possible around thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeasterly surface winds will
persist through Sunday morning. The strongest winds will be around
Springfield, with gusts over 30 knots expected Sunday morning. Low
level wind shear conditions will also persist into Sunday morning.

The rain will finally come to an end Sunday evening although there
are some indications of a continued MVFR threat.

.CLIMATE...

Some record highs and record warm lows will be jeopardy today.

Highs for Today (December 12)...

Record
SGF- 74/1889
JLN- 69/1907
UNO- 70/1980
VIH- 70/1991

Warm Lows for Today (December 12)...

Record
SGF- 60/1929
JLN- 45/2014
UNO- 50/1975
VIH- 47/1990

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to noon CST Sunday for MOZ077>081-
088>095-102-103.

Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MOZ077-088>096-101>105.

KS...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KSZ101.

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann
CLIMATE...Wise

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

1130 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Welsh

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

906 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
LEE SIDE SFC TROF DEEPENING THIS EVENING WITH 1+MB/HR FALLS NOTED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MT AT 04Z. ORIENTATION OF GRADIENT IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS FAVORS INCREASED
GAP FLOW TONIGHT...WITH DEEPEST TROF AT 12Z COINCIDING WITH THE
DIURNALLY MOST STABLE TIME OF DAY. ALREADY SEEING GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH AT THE WESTERN LIVINGSTON DOT DESPITE ONLY 6MB OF
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IDA-LWT. INITIAL RESPONSE AT LWM MAKES SENSE
GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS STILL N-NW OF OUR CWA...SO EXPECT THE
LIVINGSTON AIRPORT TO RESPOND MORE AGGRESSIVELY A BIT LATER AS
PRESSURE FALLS SHIFT EAST. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
WINDS FROM 750-800MB INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT...SO
BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO SUPPORT 60 MPH GUSTS LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THE
LIVINGSTON AREA THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE WE ARE SEEING INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER OUR WEST IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WA. EASTERN
AREAS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALREADY SEEN TEMPS
FALL TO NEAR 20F IN SOME VALLEYS...SO HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST LOWS
DOWN SOME. LIVINGSTON ON THE OTHER HAND WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP
BELOW 30F DUE TO THE INCREASED WIND AND CLOUDS. HAVE MADE A FEW
TWEAKS TO TEMPS...SKY AND WINDS.

JKL

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A FASTER ZONAL FLOW OVERNIGHT. WEAK WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT MOVE MUCH BEYOND THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THUS KEPT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. A
LEE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GAP
FLOW AREAS...THE WINDS AT 700 MB WERE WSW WHICH WAS NOT A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR STRONG GAP FLOW. ALSO...LOCAL GUIDANCE WAS
NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS. THEREFORE WILL
LEAVE WINDS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. ARTHUR

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM MOVING IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS
WITH THE LATEST RUNS. QPF VALUES REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SEEING BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
GIVEN THIS CONSISTENCY HAVE OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE QPF OR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IMPACTING THE
WEST COAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW.

THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THE
COMBINATION OF SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND
SOME WEAK JET DIVERGENCE WILL ALL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH A DEEP MOIST LAYER. THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING SO THE SOUNDING
PROFILES QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW SOUNDING WITH DEEP ACCENT THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.

HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...OTHER
THAN CARTER AND FALLON COUNTIES...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM ON
TUESDAY. CARTER AND FALLON MAY SEE SUFFICIENT ACCUMULATION...BUT
GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL BE LATER THAT FAR EAST HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW. THE ONE CAVEAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE
THE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOME OF THE CENTRAL ZONES IS NOT THE
MOST IDEAL WITH A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THIS COULD
PRODUCE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE BULL MOUNTAINS...BUT GIVEN THE
MOISTURES IT MAY OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING. CURRENT AMOUNTS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA REMAIN 6 TO 8 INCHES THOUGH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN BIGHORNS. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FROM WED THROUGH
SAT. A SHORTWAVE WAS FORECAST TO ROTATE SE INTO THE REGION FROM
CANADA ON WED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND A COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE
EARLY IN THE DAY...IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. UNSETTLED NW FLOW
CONTINUES WED NIGHT WARRANTING CONTINUED LOW POPS OVER THE AREA.
AIRMASS STARTS TO DRY OUT ON THU AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
20S. NW FLOW THU NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO UPPER RIDGING AND
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRI AND SAT. PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SAT. ARTHUR

.AVIATION...

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KLVM TONIGHT WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL OBSCURATIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 025/043 029/034 021/027 015/027 013/022 005/027 019/045
01/B 59/S 96/S 22/J 22/J 11/B 11/E
LVM 029/040 027/030 015/024 011/027 009/022 009/034 031/044
13/O 79/S 84/S 32/J 21/E 11/N 22/W
HDN 020/043 026/035 021/028 012/029 006/024 000/029 014/043
00/B 49/S +7/S 32/J 22/J 11/B 11/E
MLS 020/039 025/035 022/027 012/026 009/022 000/021 007/035
00/B 17/S 96/S 32/J 21/N 11/B 11/E
4BQ 020/042 024/038 022/026 014/026 011/026 005/027 013/043
00/U 25/O 87/S 42/J 22/J 11/B 11/B
BHK 021/037 023/035 022/026 015/023 009/021 002/019 007/033
00/B 12/S 77/S 42/J 21/N 11/B 11/B
SHR 014/042 026/033 018/023 014/029 009/024 004/031 016/046
00/B 38/S 98/S 31/B 22/J 11/B 11/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 28>32-34>36-38>42-56>58-63>68.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SUNDAY FOR ZONE 65.
WY...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 98-99.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1123 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL EXPECT CIGS BLO 1000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO 1500 TO 2000 FT AGL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. FOR THE
KVTN TERMINAL...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...ENDING BY 09Z SUNDAY. IFR CIGS BLO 1000 FT AGL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO 1500 FT AGL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR FLT CONDS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH CIGS AROUND 12000 FT AGL.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ004-005-022-023-056-094.

UPDATE...BUTTLER
SYNOPSIS...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BUTTLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1048 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION TO MOVE TO NEAR KCVS AT 13/12Z. WRAP AROUND PRECIPTATION
TO PERSIST OVER CENTRAL AND ERN NM THROUGH 13/15Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MTS OBSCURED IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PRECIPITAITON AND BR. GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY PRECIPITATION.

.PREV DISCUSSION...725 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015...
.UPDATE...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS JUST ADDED ON FOR THE ALBUQUERQUE
METRO AREA. ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CITY. HRRR AND RAP
MODELS INDICATE PERIODIC WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS BUTTING UP AGAINST
THE SANDIA/MANZANOS. AND WHILE THE CORE OF THE OVERALL METRO AREA
MAY NOT SEE ALL THAT MUCH ACCUMULATION THROUGH 2 AM...THERE COULD
BE SOME REFREEZING OF MELTED SNOW ON ROADS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO
TRAVEL ISSUES AND IMPACTS. MEANWHILE IN THE NORTHEAST...THE
SECONDARY SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING IN WITH
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING AND SNOWFALL BEING ENHANCED. IMPACTS FROM
THIS AND THE CONTINUED BLOWING AND TOMORROW`S WRAP-AROUND
DYNAMICS...YET TO BE OBSERVED...WILL KEEP IMPACTS GOING FOR THE
WARNING AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ533-534.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ522-523-529-532.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ512>515-527-528-530-531.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ506-508.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ503-504-510-511-516>519-521.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

352 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IS THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
MID MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z.
THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BEFORE EXPIRING AND WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT UPDATES HANDLE THIS.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWING LIGHT REFLECTIVITY`S IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BUT NO GROUND TRUTH THAT ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND.
PRECIPITATION IS STILL MOSTLY ALOFT AND AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO SLIDE EAST...RADAR RETURNS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY.

THE KBIS 00Z SUNDAY SOUNDING REVEALED THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD/SATURATED LAYER WAS APPROXIMATELY 1500FT THICK...AND THIS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE NAM BUFKIT RH FIELD VALID AT THE SAME
TIME. RESPECTIVELY...KMOT/MINOT HAD A MOISTURE DEPTH OF 2000FT
WHILE KJMS/JAMESTOWN SAW A DEPTH OF 2500FT. OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WERE REPORTED THE ENTIRE DAY SATURDAY AT THESE MOISTURE DEPTHS.
THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATED LAYER SHRINKING BY 500FT AT BISMARCK/MINOT/JAMESTOWN.
HOWEVER MIXING THROUGH THE EXISTING SATURATED LAYER REMAINS WEAK
AND SO DOES THE SUN ANGLE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CLOUDS/CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST CONFIRMS THE ABOVE.
DICKINSON REMAINS ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE LOW CLOUDS...MORE
IN THAN OUT...WHILE WILLISTON WILL BE VOID OF ANY LOW CLOUDS.
HOWEVER AN INFLUX OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL STILL
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IN THE FAR WEST. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER/MID
30S ELSEWHERE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN WITH EITHER
NEUTRAL OR RELATIVELY WEAK OMEGA/VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SATURATED
LAYER...MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND PERHAPS IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH RAPID CITY OFFICE
HAVE OPTED TO MENTION PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND
HETTINGER AND BOWMAN. OTHERWISE...BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR...FOG
MAKES A RETURN TO ALL BUT THE FAR WEST SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
SYSTEM IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING A STRONG SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRACKING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON MONDAY WITH THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE AND RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BETWEEN THE TWO
CYCLONES OVER THE PLAINS STATES. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ONGOING FROM
THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND WILL MENTION SOME
MORNING FOG MONDAY. HARD TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DENSE WIDESPREAD FOG
WILL BE ON MONDAY BUT DO EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH
THE DAY AND MOST LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANY MENTION
OF FOG BEYOND MONDAY MORNING CAN BE REFINED BY LATER SHIFTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
AT 12 UTC TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE AND 50H LOWS OVER THE PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF
THE UPPER LOW IS BEING PUSHED EAST...BUT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. SO ALTHOUGH THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SATURATED...LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR
WEST. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGES FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION DUE TO BOTH AN OVERALL SLOWING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...AND AN UNFAVORABLE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HERE THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER EAST THAN THE
ECMWF AND OVERALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD AN ECMWF SOLUTION.
THIS WOULD BRING THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL.

BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE THEN SLOWLY
FADING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK-UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

LATEST WPC QPF THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY BRINGS ADVISORY TO NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWS TO THE THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 12 UTC WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HWO
AND MAY STRENGTHEN WORDING SOME. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THE GFS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

BEYOND THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...COLD AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE
REGION...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONABLY COOL READINGS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WE MOVE TO THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE SHOULD BRING
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BEYOND THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
SYSTEM.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM
CST SUN DEC 13 2015

IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. FOG WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC AT KJMS/KMOT WITH VSBYS AOB 2 MILES UNTIL 16Z-18Z
SUNDAY...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. KDIK
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF IFR CIGS AND WILL TREND THE CIGS
IN THIS DIRECTION. KISN LOOKS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>023-025-034-036-037-042-047-048-050-051.

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1150 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

SFC OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WITH THE LATEST HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST INDICATING
THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL INCLUDING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MONITOR
AND ADJUST AS NEEDED OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR CURRENTLY CROSSING THE WEST WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN...A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
OF SNOW FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON TRACK
AS THERE IS SOME INTERACTION WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/MOISTURE FETCH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...WHICH
IS PRODUCING SNOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

CONCERNS THIS FORECAST INVOLVE FOG. ALSO LOW CLOUDS IMPACTING
TEMPERATURES. FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES WERE EXAMINED BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY SO DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

WILL CONTINUE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WHERE STRATUS
PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH THE SOUTHWEST SEEING
SOME DIURNAL RANGE AS THEY ARE LARGELY OUT OF THE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

A WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN A BRUSH WITH A MID LATITUDE CYCLONE MID
WEEK FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

LITTLE OR NO IMPROVEMENTS TO CURRENT CIGS/VSBYS IN THIS TAF
PERIOD. IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. FOG
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AT KJMS/KMOT WITH VSBYS AOB 2 MILES UNTIL 16Z-
18Z SUNDAY...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
VFR CIGS AT KDIK AND KISN WILL BE TEMPORARY AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR BY 12Z SUNDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017>023-025-034-036-037-042-047-048-050-051.

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

319 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 03Z PACKAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

00Z HRRR MAINTAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS AND POCKETS OF
COOLER MIN TEMPS IN THE L-M 40S THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE
LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE JUST A FEW BRIEF AND LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST...WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR OROGRAPHIC LIFT VIA THE SWRLY FLOW WILL
OCCUR.

POPS /FOR UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH/ WILL VARY FROM 30-40
PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR NW...TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND NCENT MTNS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TEMPS MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO GET GOING - ESP IN THE ERN
VALLEYS. BUT THEY DO NOT NEED TO GO FAR TO SET RECORDS ON SUNDAY
AFTN. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE M60S...AS 925MB
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE +12 TO +15C RANGE. THE PLACE THAT MIGHT
STRUGGLE WILL BE THE NERN MTNS. SOME LOW-LEVEL COOL AIR MAY STILL
BE TRAPPED THERE. L60S STILL A GOOD CALL THERE. THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD FINALLY LIFT WELL NORTH OF PA BEFORE NOON...SO NO FORCING
WILL BE HAD AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL /INCLUDING POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH/ WILL PEAK
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MAX AND MIN TEMPS FCST TO BE +20 TO +30
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. A MODEST COOL DOWN /RELATIVE TO THE
PRECEDING WARM SPELL - THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NOTICEABLY ABOVE
NORMAL/ IS FCST TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SHOT OF
SEASONABLY COLD AIR ARRIVING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WARM WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION WITH ORAGRAPHIC UPSLOPE ADVECTING
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF PA. THESE ARE BRINGING MOIST FLOW
BRINGING THE LOW AND MID STRATOCU THAT WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE
VSBYS AT BFD...UNV...IPT...MDT AND LNS. EXPECT THESE REDUCTIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL REDUCE THE MOIST UPSLOPE AND ALLOW THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS TO DRY OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...FROPA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR SPREADING FROM
W-E THRU THE DAY.

TUE...MVFR WEST EARLY...MAINLY VFR BY AFTERNOON.

WED-THU...NO SIG WX.

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM DECEMBER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORDS TO BE BROKEN
THROUGH MONDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE BUNCH.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
CLIMATE...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
941 PM PST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system tonight through Sunday night will bring snow
accumulations for all but the lower elevations of Central
Washington. Light to moderate snow accumulations will be possible
in the valleys primarily above 2000 feet. Heavy snow accumulations
will be possible in the mountains, especially over the Cascade
crest, Northeast Blue Mountains and in the Idaho Panhandle.
Temperatures will turn colder for next week with the active
weather pattern continuing. /Pelatti

.DISCUSSION...
Ended the Okanogan valley winter weather advisory for snow with
an update. HRRR continuing to show the back edge of the passing
weather system traverse Eastern Washington and result in the
improving trend. /Pelatti

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Back edge of the weather system passing over the avation
are tonight is resulting in a decrease in precipitation and
somewhat of an improving trend. However the abundant low level
moisture and southerly/southwesterly flow is likely to result in
problematic MVFR to IFR stratus over the KGEG area and
vicinity...while fog has been less of an issue. /Pelatti

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 35 39 28 35 23 31 / 80 20 20 20 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 35 39 30 36 26 32 / 90 60 30 30 0 10
Pullman 36 38 31 34 27 32 / 100 90 30 30 10 10
Lewiston 41 43 34 41 29 37 / 100 80 30 20 10 10
Colville 33 38 28 35 21 31 / 90 20 30 10 0 10
Sandpoint 34 38 29 36 24 32 / 100 60 30 20 10 10
Kellogg 33 34 28 32 23 28 / 100 100 50 40 20 10
Moses Lake 36 43 28 40 21 33 / 20 10 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 34 39 30 37 25 34 / 30 10 20 10 0 0
Omak 33 37 28 35 23 30 / 40 10 20 10 0 0

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for Central Panhandle
Mountains.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for Northern
Panhandle.

WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for Northeast Blue
Mountains.

Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM PST Sunday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM PST Sunday for Northeast
Mountains.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

846 PM PST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT MOVED ONSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND HAS MOVED MOSTLY EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING
EXCEPT PERHAPS THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES...BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO
THE COAST...A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE LOWLANDS AND HEAVY SNOW TO
THE CASCADES. A SECOND SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST
OREGON AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
MOVING BACK NORTH INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST OREGON MAINLY FROM ABOUT
SALEM SOUTHWARD WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
THAT SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO MONDAY...WITH DECENT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES...AND SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THAT
MAY LAST INTO WEDNESDAY. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT MOVED ONSHORE AROUND 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST. SOME GUSTS GOT CLOSE
70 MPH AT BEACH/HEADLAND LOCATIONS SUCH AS CAPE MEARES. THE WINDS
THEN SHIFTED TO BRISK WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SOME GUSTS WERE
AROUND 50 MPH FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING ON THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND
FAR NORTH OREGON COASTS. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND
AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY AS IT VERY
SLOWLY WEAKENS...SO EXPECT THE WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE FAR NORTH
COASTAL AREAS AND OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL MOUNTAINS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES REMAINED COOL ON THE EAST SLOPES OF MOUNT HOOD AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET WAS REPORTED IN THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
THIS MAY CONTINUE A WHILE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. EXPECT JUST A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THE OCCLUDED FRONT
HAS MOVED EAST OF ALL BUT THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. THE PRECIPITATION
BEHIND THE FRONT HAS TURNED SHOWERY IN ONSHORE FLOW... AND HAVE
CONVERTED THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES
TO A SNOW ADVISORY...NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY... UNTIL THE
TRAILING ONSHORE FLOW EASES.

THERE IS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE OREGON COAST THIS EVENING AND
WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RATHER
HEAVY PRECIPITATION. IT WILL ALSO PUSH THE FRONT BACK A BIT NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR NORTHWEST OREGON FORECAST ZONES...SAY
FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTHWARD. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW
IN THE OREGON CASCADES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MORE RAIN WEST
OF THE OREGON CASCADES. THUS HAVE KEPT THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES OVERNIGHT IN SUNDAY MORNING.

THIS SECOND SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH AND SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS SPREADING IN BEHIND IT
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SNOW ADVISORY TYPE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE OREGON CASCADES THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY 1500 FEET BY EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS DECREASING. WE HAVE A CHANCE AT A MOSTLY DRY DAY TUESDAY
UNDER A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
ENDS AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE GFS
HAS STARTED TRACKING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH WOULD KEEP
HEAVIER RAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA IN FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON OR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...WITH OTHER
MODELS KEEPING THE TRACK FURTHER NORTH BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO OUR AREA MAINLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST DETAILS GET
WASHED OUT FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE
INTO THE WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR THIS EVENING AS
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS
ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SLUG OF STEADIER RAIN WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF KTMK AND KSLE AFTER 06Z-08Z...WHICH MAY CAUSE THESE
LOCATIONS TO DETERIORATE BACK INTO LOW END MVFR OR HIGH END IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z-19Z
SUNDAY...THEN EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WITH INCREASING SHOWERS.
/27
&&

.MARINE...GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 40 KT CONTINUE TO BLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING...WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 29 KT CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW A BRIEF 6 HOUR BREAK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WHEN WINDS EASE...BUT QUICKLY PICK BACK UP BY 10 AM SUNDAY AND STAY
GUSTY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EVEN MONDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS FINALLY EASE BELOW 20 KTS
MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE WATERS.

A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SEAS ARE RUNNING SEVERAL FEET HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING...DUE TO FETCH OVER THE WATERS WITH BUOY 89 HOVERING AROUND
28 FT. WILL LIKELY SEE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 22-26 FT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY DROP TO 16-17 FT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW 15 FT TOWARDS LATE MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE CONSIDERABLY LESS WIND AND MAY
EVEN ALLOW SEAS TO DROP 10 FT BY TUESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOME SHAPE OR FORM MAY BRING MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER TO THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CASCADES IN
LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST MONDAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT 60 NM.

GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 3 AM
PST MONDAY.

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
748 PM PST SAT DEC 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Ended the advisories for the Wenatchee area, Waterville Plateau,
and Okanogan Valley as radar, satellite, and observations show
most that the rain and snowfall has either ended there or
decreased substantially. Another update likely this evening to
continue to decrease pops and clean up the accumulation wording as
the rain and snow ends/decreases in this west to east fashion.
/Pelatti

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A robust storm system is already generating rain across
the southwest areas as of 00z and will move across the forecast
area over the next 2-3 hours. A cold front will move off the the
Cascades just before 06Z and into the eastern TAF sites after 06Z.
This will result in drying from the west through the night.
Precipitation mainly as rain or a rain/snow mix...so expect widely
fluctuating conditions but mainly MVFR/IFR cigs/vsby...but do not
be surprised with localized IFR cigs at times. The lower
atmosphere will remain saturated and southwest up-sloping flow
into the the KGEG-KCOE corridor and likely KPUW will result in
IFR/LIFR conditions after 08z with improvements possible after
18-20z. KMWH/KEAT TAF sites will be a little tougher forecast as
the same southwest winds may scour out the surface moisture.
Conditions VFR/MVFR after 07-08z but be careful of some localized
low level stratus through the morning. Lastly winds behind the
cold front will come around to southwest with sustained winds
10-20 kts and gust 20-30kts. Tobin

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 35 39 28 35 23 31 / 100 20 20 20 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 35 39 30 36 26 32 / 100 60 30 30 10 10
Pullman 36 38 31 34 27 32 / 100 90 30 30 10 10
Lewiston 41 43 34 41 29 37 / 100 80 30 20 10 10
Colville 33 38 28 35 21 31 / 100 20 30 10 10 10
Sandpoint 34 38 29 36 24 32 / 100 60 30 20 10 20
Kellogg 33 34 28 32 23 28 / 100 100 50 40 20 20
Moses Lake 36 43 28 40 21 33 / 50 10 10 10 0 10
Wenatchee 34 39 30 37 25 34 / 40 10 20 10 0 10
Omak 33 37 28 35 23 30 / 80 10 20 10 0 10

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for Central Panhandle
Mountains.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for Northern
Panhandle.

WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for Northeast Blue
Mountains.

Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM PST Sunday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM PST Sunday for Northeast
Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
705 PM PST SAT DEC 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the grids and the text based zone products but with the
back edge of the weather system making good progress across the
Columbia Basin this evening I feel additional updates will be
necessary to clean up some of the clutter as precipitation
decreases and ends in the similar west to east fashion overnight
and tomorrow. Some of the snow levels were lowered a bit as well
as some light accumulation of snow is evident on the higher
elevations of the Spokane area roughly above 2000-2200 feet MSL.
The latest HRRR still suggests holding onto warning snow amounts
for the Blues and Shoshone county with the stall of the the
snowband over those areas...yet they are trending with the stall
of it a bit further south and east than earlier forecasts and this
would suggests less snow accumulation in that area. /Pelatti

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for Central Panhandle
Mountains.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for Northern
Panhandle.

WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for Northeast Blue
Mountains.

Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM PST Sunday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM PST Sunday for Northeast
Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Waterville
Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1036 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE SNOW HAS COME TO AN
END. CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A BIT EARLY...ALTHOUGH
BLACK ICE IS BECOMING A PROBLEM ACROSS AREA ROADWAYS. UPDATED
FORECAST TO INCLUDE FOG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS MODELS
OVERESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH 00Z
MODEL RUNS SHOWING PRETTY LIGHT WINDS WELL INTO SUNDAY. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THE FOG DOES NOT LIFT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A
FEW SHELTERED LOCATIONS DUE TO LOW SUN ANGLE AND LIGHT WINDS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY)

ALTHOUGH THE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS...FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF THE FOG OR
LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER. BELIEVE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST AND
INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT PAST 09Z.
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST SETTING UP FOR THE WESTERN NE TERMINALS
WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING DENSE FOG NEAR KSNY AND KAIA. ADDED
FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO THESE LOCATIONS BUT DID NOT INCLUDE KBFF
AND KCDR AT THIS TIME. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR WHEN THIS FOG
LIFTS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE MORE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS MAY SEE FOG LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS PAST 16Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

359 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

...SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TODAY...

LATEST OBS SHOW LOW PRESSURE WRAPPING UP OVER ERN NM THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN TRACK THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE AND ON INTO
WRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MORE ELY TRACK IS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER NRN PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY.
LATEST HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIP...AND SHOWS THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AND E OF I-25 TODAY...BEFORE PRECIP EXITS INTO KS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEADLINES LOOK GENERALLY ON TRACK SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH
THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. FIRST CONCERN IS HOW FAR N AND W THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMS WILL BE OVER ERN LAS ANIMAS...BACA...AND SRN PROWERS AND BENT
COUNTIES TODAY. ACCUMS IN THE 4-8 RANGE POSSIBLE THERE. KIOWA COUNTY
MAY ESCAPE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. IF LATER HIGH RES RUNS SHOW THE
PRECIP REMAINING SOUTH OF HWY 50...MAY HAVE TO TRIM BACK THE
HEADLINES FOR THE NERN ZONES INCLUDING KIOWA.

OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES TODAY.
ALREADY AM SEEING GUST IN THE 30 KT RANGE AT KSPD. STRONG WINDS
COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DEPENDING ON
SNOW RATES. SNOW RATES REMAIN QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE MORE SRLY STORM
TRACK AND CONTINUED BORDERLINE TEMPS OVER THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY TODAY TO SEE HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND PRECIP CAN
MAKE IT INTO CO. CURRENTLY...RADAR TRENDS ARE NOT LOOKING THAT GREAT
FOR HEAVY PRECIP...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER
INTO THE PANHANDLE TODAY.

HAVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS FOR THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR TODAY...SINCE THE
SNOWFALL FAILED TO MEET EXPECTATIONS...AND STRONG WINDS WILL TEND TO
KEEP THINGS MIXED TODAY. IT WILL STILL FEEL PRETTY RAW WITH TEMPS IN
THE 40S AND FAIRLY BRISK N-NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS
EVENING...PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND WILL SEE
CLEARING CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MON MORNING OVER THE
CONTDVD...BUT ANY PRECIP FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL
LATER ON MONDAY. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

NEXT UPPER TROUGH ALREADY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN MON...WITH
CLOSED LOW DEEPENING OVER UTAH BY MON EVENING. EXPECT PRECIP TO
BREAK OUT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE MORNING MON...THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS
THROUGH THE DAY. MAY NEED A HIGHLIGHT FOR SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUANS BY MON AFTERNOON AS STRONG SW FLOW BRIEFLY
DEVELOPS...THOUGH WINDOW FOR HEAVY SNOW IS RATHER SMALL AS UPPER
LOW IS ALREADY INTO WRN CO MON NIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING W-NW BY
MIDNIGHT. OVER THE PLAINS MON...SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WITH WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I25 IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER
LOW THEN TRACKS ACROSS COLORADO MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...WITH
00Z AND 06Z MODELS TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THE PATH OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. STILL APPEARS BEST FORCING FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I70...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH AS LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. WON`T TAKE MUCH MORE
OF SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE LOW TRACK TO PUT THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
THE EASTERN PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER UNDER THE GUN FOR
HEAVIER SNOW AND WIND...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE
SCATTERED CATEGORY MOST LOCATIONS. MAXES TUE WILL RUN MUCH COLDER
AREA-WIDE...WITH GUSTY NORTH WIND WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM
MAKING FOR A RATHER RAW DAY OVER THE PLAINS.

MAIN UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED-
THU...WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. A FEW WEAK
WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE JET WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS...WITH WEST FACING SLOPES NORTH
OF MONARCH PASS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE AS MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. FROM FRI INTO SAT...LARGE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...LEADING TO A RETURN OF WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER ALL THE AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

AREAS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST
OF I-25 TODAY...ALONG WITH STRONG N WINDS WHICH WILL RESULT IN POOR
VIS OVER THE SE CO PLAINS. THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR TODAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE KALS COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF PC FG OR BR
EARLY MON MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND THE RECENT LIGHT SNOWFALL.
ROSE

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ089-093>095-
097.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ096-098-
099.

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

701 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

MID-LVL LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS AS NOTED ON LATEST WATER
LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS IS DRAWING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH A POCKET OF STEEPER THAN
7C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND GREATER THAN 250 J/KG MUCAPE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW WI INTO CENTRAL WI EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG 850 MB WARM FRONT AND AREA OF 925-850 MB FGEN.
UPPER MI MEANWHILE HAS GENERALLY REMAINED PCPN FREE EARLY THIS
MORNING EXCEPT FOR DRIZZLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS IN UPSLOPE ENE
FLOW. UPSLOPE FLOW HAS ALSO RESULTED IN LOCALIZED DENSE FOG OVER THE
HIGHLANDS OF MQT COUNTY WITH DENSE FOG OBSERVED AT NWS MQT.

INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION OVER WI TIED TO 850 MB WARM ADVECTION
AND 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MI LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WITH STEEP MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES AND UP TO 200 J/KG MUCAPE WILL WARRANT AT LEAST A MENTION
OF SLIGHT CHCS OF THUNDER INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON OVER SCNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WELL. GIVEN MOIST CONDITIONS AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG IN FORECAST. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON 06Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY BREAK OR LULL IN RAIN AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WEAKENS...BUT THEN ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO MID-LVL
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MIDWEST TONIGHT.

STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING NEG-TILT MID-
UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE IN COUPLED UPPER
JET STRUCTURE AND INCREASING 850-700 MB FGEN WILL LEAD TO MAIN
DEFORMATION PRECIP SHIELD TO FORM IN DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD OF
SYSTEM. THIS HEAVIER PCPN SHIELD WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. WITH PWATS MORE THAN SIX STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMICS COULD EASILY SEE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES OVER SCNTRL PORTIONS LATE TONIGHT
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS OF MINOR FLOODING OR PONDING OF
WATER OVER POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS. THIS WILL BE NOTED IN HWO
STATEMENT. SINCE RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS HAVE BEEN LOW THIS FALL
FROM BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY RIVER OR STREAM
FLOODING LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
FLOOD WATCH.

TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH NEAR RECORD READINGS TODAY DESPITE
RAINFALL WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
40S...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPS WON/T FALL MUCH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION. EXPECT MINS FROM UPPER 30S WEST TO MID TO UPPER 40S EAST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

MONDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
OVERALL...THE 00Z RUNS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW
PLACEMENT/TRACK...WITH THE LOW GENERALLY STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA.
NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE A HEAVY SNOW TRACK...BUT WITH NO COLD AIR TO
SPEAK OF IT WILL JUST MEAN A HEAVY RAIN TRACK. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE ENTIRE REGION WILL SEE 1.5+ INCHES OF RAIN. DUE TO THE TRACK
BEING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE
THE BEST FRONTOGENTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL WILL TAKE
PLACE. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST 850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WILL ALSO HAVE THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25+ INCHES /WHICH AT LEAST
WITH REGARDS TO CSFR CLIMATOLOGY SINCE 1979 HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN
BEFORE IN DECEMBER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/. ALL OF THIS WOULD
POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN FACT...THE MAJORITY OF
THE MODELS SUGGEST 2+ INCHES STORM TOTAL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER WITH THE NAM SHOWING OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN. THOUGHT ABOUT DOING
A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT OPTED TO HOLD OFF GIVEN
THAT THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER A 30 HOUR PERIOD...AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BREAK LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

AS THE LOW MOVES E OF THE AREA MON AFTN AND MONDAY NIGHT...SOME WEAK
COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
TO -4C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITAITON TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW OR
TO ALL SNOW BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE ANY ACCUMULATION OTHER
THAN PERHAPS GRASSY SURFACES. NOT NEARLY ENOUGH FOR LES DESPITE N-NW
FLOW. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLOSED LOW FOR WED. CURRENT MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THIS LOW TRACK BEING WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL CAUSE ANY SNOW
INITIALLY TUE NIGHT TO QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN WED MORNING. THE
WED SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE NEARLY AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
DESPITE FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION ONCE AGAIN. WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AGAIN THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN.

THIS LOW WILL USHER IN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT /AT LEAST FOR THIS
SEASON SO FAR/ COLD SNAP THE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -15C BY FRIDAY. WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW
FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR LES IN THE NW FAVORED
SNOW BELTS FOR FRI AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY BE THE FIRST RELATIVELY
PROLONGED LES EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA THIS SEASON... ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH LIKELY POPS
FOR AREAS FAVORED IN NW FLOW FRI INTO SATURDAY. DESPITE THE COLD
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY JUST DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST FROM STRATUS
AND/OR LOW VSBYS IN FOG. RAIN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BE SPREADING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. KCMX WILL SEE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO MONDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE WEST HALF AND
NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE AT HIGH GALE FORCE INTO MON NIGHT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS MAY
ALSO SPREAD TO THE EAST HALF ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT AS
THE LOW FINALLY MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND COLDER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE LAKE ON NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 20 KT BY
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL GET CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN LAKE AHEAD OF THE LOW
ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING GALES IN THE
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
/MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

631 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

MID-LVL LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS AS NOTED ON LATEST WATER
LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS IS DRAWING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH A POCKET OF STEEPER THAN
7C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND GREATER THAN 250 J/KG MUCAPE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW INTO CENTRAL WI EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG 850 MB WARM FRONT AND AREA OF 925-850 MB FGEN.
UPPER MI MEANWHILE HAS GENERALLY REMAINED PCPN FREE EARLY THIS
MORNING EXCEPT FOR DRIZZLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS IN UPSLOPE
ENE FLOW. UPSLOPE FLOW HAS ALSO RESULTED IN LOCALIZED DENSE FOG OVER
THE HIGHLANDS OF MQT COUNTY WITH DENSE FOG OBSERVED NEAR AT NWS MQT.

INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION OVER WI TIED TO 850 MB WARM ADVECTION
AND 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MI LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WITH STEEP MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES AND UP TO 200 J/KG MUCAPE WILL WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHCS OF THUNDER INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON OVER SCNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS WELL. GIVEN MOIST CONDITIONS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG IN FORECAST. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON 06Z MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY BREAK OR LULL IN RAIN AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WEAKENS...BUT THEN ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO MID-LVL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LOWER MIDWEST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
/MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

537 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

MID-LVL LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS AS NOTED ON LATEST WATER
LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS IS DRAWING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH A POCKET OF STEEPER THAN
7C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND GREATER THAN 250 J/KG MUCAPE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW INTO CENTRAL WI EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG 850 MB WARM FRONT AND AREA OF 925-850 MB FGEN.
UPPER MI MEANWHILE HAS GENERALLY REMAINED PCPN FREE EARLY THIS
MORNING EXCEPT FOR DRIZZLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS IN UPSLOPE
ENE FLOW. UPSLOPE FLOW HAS ALSO RESULTED IN LOCALIZED DENSE FOG OVER
THE HIGHLANDS OF MQT COUNTY WITH DENSE FOG OBSERVED NEAR AT NWS MQT.

INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION OVER WI TIED TO 850 MB WARM ADVECTION
AND 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MI LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WITH STEEP MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES AND UP TO 200 J/KG MUCAPE WILL WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHCS OF THUNDER INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON OVER SCNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS WELL. GIVEN MOIST CONDITIONS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG IN FORECAST. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON 06Z MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY BREAK OR LULL IN RAIN AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WEAKENS...BUT THEN ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO MID-LVL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LOWER MIDWEST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015

IFR/LIFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION CONTINUES
TO ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA...CIG HEIGHTS
HAVE LOWERED AND WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW IFR. DEVELOPING FOG WILL
DROP VISIBILITIES INTO THE LOWER RANGE OF IFR WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN...WHICH IS TIMED AT
AROUND 8Z THIS MORNING. TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE DELAYED A
BIT DUE TO DRIER AIR STILL LINGERING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE OVERCOME FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE ONGOING MOISTURE
ADVECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
/MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

438 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR CLOVIS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE EWD. LARGE
AREA OF WRAP-AROUND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ERN NM THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. MTS
OBSCURED IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW AND BR/FZFG. GUSTY W-NW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES BY MID MORNING...GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY FROM W TO E
THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND DEPARTING
UPPER LOW.

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW CREATING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL SLOWLY TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST AND PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST DUE TO SNOWFALL. A BRIEF BREAK WILL OCCUR BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE A COOLER SYSTEM ALTHOUGH LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS COMPARED TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM. IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...
THE DEEP LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. DUE TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK TO THE LOW...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH
AND ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING...TRAJECTORY OF THE
UPPER LOW AND HRRR HOURLY FORECASTS DECIDED TO EXTEND THE
ADVISORIES FOR ALONG AND ADJACENT AREAS TO THE UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH 11 AM TODAY. HRRR SHOWS ONE MORE SPOKE OR
BAND OF SNOW IMPACTING ABQ AFTER SUNRISE AND BASED ON CURRENT
PATTERN CANT DISCOUNT THAT. ALSO DECIDED TO ADD DEBACA AND CURRY
COUNTIES TO THE CURRENT ADVISORY PACKAGE. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THOSE COUNTIES SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW. THE COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER THOSE AREAS AND THE LATEST MELROSE
OB INDICATES A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW THE PAST HR. REALLY LOOKED HARD
AT UPGRADING THE QUAY COUNTY ADVISORY TO A WARNING. EXPECTING AN
ADDITIONAL 4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THAT COUNTY
BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF. ALSO CONSIDERED A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
UNION...PERHAPS COLFAX COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONT JUST DOESNT SEEM
COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LONGER DURATION OF CRYSTAL
SNOW...ESPECIALLY SINCE GROUND TEMPS WERE WARM PRIOR TO THE EVENT.
CRYSTAL SNOW IS NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING/DRIFTING. THE
FRONT ISNT AS STRONG COMPARED TO THE FRONT THAT IMPACTED THAT SAME
AREA SEVERAL WEEKS AGO...THUS PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR
MULTIPLE HRS. EITHER WAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER ACTION BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE NEXT LOW AND CONTINUE THE THEME OF EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PACIFIC TROUGH PASSAGE DOESNT LOOK TO
BE AS IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE CURRENT ONE BUT A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
TRACK ISNT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY WHEN THE LOW DEEPENS TO
THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT. QPF NUMBERS WILL BE LESS DUE
TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER.
COULD SEE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACROSS THE NC MTNS SO WILL BE
MONITORING THAT TREND. IMPACT OVERALL COULD BE MORE...DESPITE LESS
SNOW ACCUMULATION...ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH DUE TO THE COOLER
SFC TEMPS.

A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE THIRD PACIFIC SYSTEM SHOULD BE TAKING AIM ON THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND AND THAT IS CAPTURED IN THE LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN STORMS IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH NM LATE-DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. MAIN PART OF THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF NEW
MEXICO...MAKING SNOW/PRECIP HARD TO COME BY EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STRONG WEST WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT ON AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

MODELS AGREE THAT A LONGER LIVED BREAK BETWEEN PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS
REMAINS ON TRACK WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE ONE CAVEAT MAY
BE A CLIPPER TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO
AND NORTHEAST NM THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM THURSDAY AND COULD POTENTIALLY DIVE
SEWD SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...SPREADING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
NEXT UPPER LOW IN A VERY ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

VENTILATION RATES WILL RANGE FROM POOR TO GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH IMPROVING RATES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RATES WILL DROP INTO THE POOR CATEGORY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ523-529-532>535-537.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ512>515-527-528-530-531.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511-516>519-521-522.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

334 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW CREATING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL SLOWLY TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST AND PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST DUE TO SNOWFALL. A BRIEF BREAK WILL OCCUR BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE A COOLER SYSTEM ALTHOUGH LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS COMPARED TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM. IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 41 19 36 22 / 0 0 50 30
DULCE........................... 33 8 39 16 / 5 0 70 70
CUBA............................ 31 13 34 17 / 10 0 60 50
GALLUP.......................... 41 18 33 17 / 0 0 60 30
EL MORRO........................ 37 15 36 12 / 0 0 60 40
GRANTS.......................... 41 17 41 15 / 0 0 60 30
QUEMADO......................... 35 15 38 11 / 0 0 40 20
GLENWOOD........................ 47 24 46 24 / 0 0 40 20
CHAMA........................... 30 7 33 9 / 10 0 80 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 37 18 39 19 / 30 0 30 30
PECOS........................... 35 21 41 16 / 60 0 10 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 33 9 36 10 / 50 0 30 50
RED RIVER....................... 26 11 32 8 / 60 0 30 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 33 9 38 10 / 60 0 20 50
TAOS............................ 36 12 39 17 / 50 0 20 40
MORA............................ 36 22 45 16 / 70 0 10 50
ESPANOLA........................ 41 18 37 22 / 40 0 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 35 20 40 18 / 50 0 20 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 39 20 42 23 / 40 0 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 39 22 43 21 / 40 0 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 41 24 44 25 / 30 0 10 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 44 24 48 23 / 30 0 10 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 42 22 44 22 / 30 0 20 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 47 23 50 23 / 20 0 10 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 41 22 41 21 / 30 0 20 40
SOCORRO......................... 47 24 49 27 / 5 0 5 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 35 20 42 21 / 40 0 20 40
TIJERAS......................... 37 20 43 21 / 40 0 10 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 37 19 46 19 / 60 0 10 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 34 22 40 20 / 80 0 5 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 39 22 45 22 / 20 0 5 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 45 29 50 27 / 10 0 5 30
RUIDOSO......................... 41 33 46 28 / 10 0 5 30
CAPULIN......................... 33 17 44 16 / 100 0 5 10
RATON........................... 33 17 45 21 / 80 0 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 35 18 47 16 / 100 0 5 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 40 23 46 23 / 90 0 5 30
CLAYTON......................... 35 24 45 23 / 100 10 5 10
ROY............................. 35 21 46 18 / 100 0 5 10
CONCHAS......................... 39 20 48 24 / 100 0 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 41 27 51 26 / 100 0 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 36 20 51 29 / 100 5 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 43 26 57 28 / 70 0 5 5
PORTALES........................ 46 28 59 29 / 50 0 5 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 44 27 59 28 / 60 0 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 55 25 62 30 / 20 0 5 0
PICACHO......................... 51 32 62 32 / 10 0 5 10
ELK............................. 48 34 57 33 / 5 0 5 10

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ523-529-532>535-537.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ512>515-527-528-530-531.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511-516>519-521-522.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

957 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THEN TAKES HOLD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WHILE LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE
NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 946 AM EST SUNDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THE MID-MORNING
FORECAST REFRESH. JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO INCORPORATE IN THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OVERALL CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT, AND THAT WILL BE
CHANGING SOON AS WELL. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO WARM MUCH OF
THE AREA WELL INTO THE 40S. ONLY THE HRRR AND GFS-LAV ARE
INDICATING LOWER 40S FOR THE WARMER VALLEYS. JUST NOT BUYING THOSE
WARMER OUTPUTS GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS AND NO STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND
TO ADVECT THE MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH. IF ANYTHING, A
VERY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN
COOLER AIR. SINCE THE GOING FORECAST ALREADY WENT ON THE COLDER
SIDE OF THINGS, I`M JUST LETTING IT RIDE.

BY THE WAY, INTERESTING TO NOTE THE MIX OF TEMPERATURES INDICATIVE
OF A COMPLEX LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE. IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AT 9AM, HIGHGATE WAS 32F AND BTV WAS 36F. MEANWHILE HIGHER
UP, MT MANSFIELD WAS 32F AND WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN WAS 36F!

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 340 AM EST FOLLOWS...

MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM AN
ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED NEAR HUDSON BAY. TO THE SOUTH, A QUASI-
STATIONARY WARM FRONT EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SURFACE PATTERN IS IN A MID-LEVEL REGIME
FEATURING AMPLIFIED 500 MB RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S..

FOR TODAY...EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN ME/NH, WHILE INITIALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP IN CLOUDINESS. IT IS ADMITTEDLY A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST
AS 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP TO OFFSET VERY LIMITED
DIURNAL HEATING TO THE SOUTH. FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH WHERE WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE A BIT DELAYED, SLIGHTLY GREATER DIURNAL HEATING
PROSPECTS DUE TO PARTIAL SUN MAY LIMIT COOLER NORTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW. WITH ALL THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES FROM
PRESENT VALUES INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID 40S.

MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THEN BEGINS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING, AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD.
BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRODUCES AN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WHICH
PER GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS BEGINS AROUND 21Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND BUILDING EASTWARD INTO VERMONT AFTER 00Z. CAD-TYPE
SIGNATURE IS NOTED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT WHERE TEMPS WILL BE
INITIALLY COOLER, THOUGH I`LL POINT OUT THAT YOU HAVE TO GO WELL
NORTH OF MONTREAL TO FIND ANY SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS. THUS
DESPITE CIPS ANALOGS SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF FZRA, I`D THINK THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS BRIEFLY IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHEST POPS -
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY - GENERALLY ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER LOCATIONS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD DECREASING
POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOWEVER STRATUS LAYER WILL REMAIN, AND
RECENT NAM/RAP OUTPUT SHOWING UNSATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE CLOUD-
ICE LAYER WOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. QPF LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRETHS TO THE SOUTH,
TRENDING UPWARD TO AROUND A TENTH ALONG THE CANADA/US BORDER. ANY
ICE ACCRETION WOULD BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED SPOTS IN ESSEX COUNTY
VT. EXCEPT FOR IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, LOWS MAY NOT FALL ALL
THAT FAR FROM DAYTIME TEMPS GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
SKIES, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...WARM FRONT TO EXIST ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY MORNING WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
FURTHER SOUTH AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A BETTER PART
OF THE DAY REMAINING DRY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION WITH A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM EAST
TO WEST. LOOKING AT HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 40S FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK. RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
ENTIRE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
TO LINGER TUESDAY MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA.
EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AND BECOMES TERRAIN DRIVEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL KEEP LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE HALF TO
THREE QUARTER INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY FOR A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER. BUT THE UPPER PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THUS LOOKING AT A RETURN TO MORE RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER
TROUGH MOVE RIGHT OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
AND WILL TAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 30S AS OPPOSED TO
READINGS IN THE 40S FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VFR, THOUGH THERE IS
SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS AT SLK AND RUT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE SHORT-LIVED. STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BUT
DETERIORATING TO MVFR BY THE EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CANADA BORDER. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT, EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST WITH STRATUS DECK
BEING MAINTAINED, WITH AREAS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT MIST.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT NORTH, BUT WILL BECOME VARIABLE/CALM
AS THE FRONT NEARS AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS (A BIT
STRONGER AT RUT DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN INFLUENCES).

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 00Z TUE...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT MVFR
STRATUS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TOWARD 00Z TUE.
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...MVFR TO BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
12Z TUE - 12Z WED...MVFR RAIN/HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO
BECOME VFR BY TUES EVE.
12Z WED - 12Z THU...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z THU - 12Z FRI...VFR TO BECOME OCNL MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO/NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...LOCONTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

830 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

GETTING REPORTS OF VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES ALONG WITH RIMING. THE DENSE FOG EXTENDS THROUGH EMMONS
COUNTY EAST TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TO RILLS AND
CARRINGTON. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE THE FOG HAS
DISSIPATED END EXTEND THE ADVISORY THROUGH 11 AM SOUTH CENTRAL ANS
EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IMPROVEMENT SEEN AT OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BUT WX CAMS NEAR WISHEK AND ASHLEY STILL
INDICATE SOME FOG...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING AS IS. LIGHT
SNOW INDICATED ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. WILL KEEP A MENTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR THEN
END BY 14 UTC. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KDIK WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE
THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. AFTER 03Z MONDAY IFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE. THROUGH
18Z TODAY...MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL AERODROMES EXCEPT KISN.
KISN CAN EXPECT VFR CIGS THROUGH 09Z MONDAY...THEN MVFR CIGS/IFR
VSBYS TAKE CONTROL.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ005-013-020-023-025-034-036-037-042-045>048-050-051.

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

649 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>023-025-034-036-037-042-047-048-050-051.

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

649 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE NORTH TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY FORCING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW RAIN GETTING CLOSE TO NWRN
OHIO TODAY. STILL THINK THIS IS OVERDONE AND MOST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BUT IT CANNOT BE IGNORED GIVEN THE SPRINKLES
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. WILL PUT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN IN A FEW NWRN COUNTIES FOR THE DAY. ALSO...THE WARM
FRONT STILL LOOKS STALLED IN THE KERI AREA WITH ERIE STILL
REPORTING A LIGHT NE WIND AND 3SM VISIBILITY IN FOG. THIS SHOULD
RESOLVE THIS MORNING SO FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES THERE.

ORIGINAL...THE WARM FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA EXTENDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI TO NEAR KERI. SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY WERE DRIFTING NORTHEAST. FOR TODAY THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTH EVENTUALLY ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH...AT LEAST AT THE LOWER/MID LEVELS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW AMPLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. STILL HOWEVER...BEING IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WE USUALLY WILL BREAK OUT WITH PATCHES OF SUN. WILL KEEP
THE WEST CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR
A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUN WITH A TREND TOWARD PARTLY SUNNY. THIS MAY
NEED TO BE DIALED BACK TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IF UPPER LEVELS DONT THIN
OUT. AS FOR TEMPS...THE DECEMBER HEAT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING UP AGAINST 70 DEGREES. IF THE CLOUDS DO BREAK...HIGHS
MIGHT BE HIGHER THAN THAT BUT I`LL LEAVE THAT FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
RAISE. WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH AND LOWER LEVELS
DRYING...DONT SEE MUCH NEED FOR POPS OUTSIDE OF A SMALL CHANCE IN
THE MORNING NORTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY BREAKS FROM THE DAY SHOULD CLOSE UP OVERNIGHT AS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER THE
GFS IS SHOWING BY 12Z DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY INTO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE NAM HOWEVER
IS A BIT SLOWER SUGGESTING NO PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY. FOR
NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE GFS AND BRING CAT POPS INTO THE WEST
WITH CHANCE EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTY. BY
18Z MONDAY WILL HAVE CAT POPS EAST WITH SOME DRYING WORKING INTO
THE WEST AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A DRY SLOT. MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
GETS BACK INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. DO HAVE LIKELY POPS WORKING BACK INTO THE WEST FOR
THE AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER. MONDAY NIGHT
DRYING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW MOVES ENE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. WILL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT THE AIRMASS
MAY PROVE TOO WARM FOR VERY MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GO DRY. WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL GO
THROUGH. THIS ONE WILL BRING IN THE CHANGE TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS
ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE WED/THU
FRONT...COOL ENOUGH TO FINALLY BRING US BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE A PAUSE/DRY SLOT LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. DEPENDING ON
THE ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS AND WHETHER THERE IS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO WORK OFF OF FROM THE TROUGH...THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WHEN ADDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY
ONLY IN THE 30S.

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT STILL SITTING ACROSS THE LAKE AND WITH ERIE
PA WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST...FRONT IS JUST TO THEIR SOUTH. WEB
CAMS FROM THE AREA VALIDATE THE REDUCED VSBY. FURTHER UP THE LAKE
DKK IS AT JUST 1/2 MILE. CONCERN IS THAT ERIE STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DIP TO IFR...IT IS IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY...UNTIL
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG
IFR MAY BE A POSSIBILITY. FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ALL OTHER SITES WILL HAVE A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE
AND VFR CONDITIONS...OUTSIDE OF TEMPORARY SUNRISE BR. RAIN SHOWERS
AND NON VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE TOWARD 12Z MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY...LINGERING INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. NON-VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED WEST/EAST ACROSS THE LAKE WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD LATER TODAY...BRINGING THE WINDS ON THE
ENTIRE LAKE AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
OKLAHOMA TODAY TO WISCONSIN BY MONDAY MORNING...SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT SHOULD
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT WHEN THE FRONT PASSES
SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. THERE STILL IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A
PERIOD OF SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE A GALE
WATCH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD QUICKLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...RETURNING THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PASSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES TAKING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...LIKELY WITH ENOUGH WIND
AGAIN TO NEED A HEADLINE.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

635 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KERI
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
ELSEWHERE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY IN
MIST/HAZE EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY...LINGERING INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. NON-VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...OUDEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

518 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS BELOW...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO PUMP WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 60S AREA WIDE AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MORE
THAN ANOTHER DEGREE OR TO PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SEVERAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FELL YESTERDAY...AND WE MAY SEE MORE FALL
TODAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 70S AGAIN. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO EAST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT WE MAY SEE A FEW TREES TOPPLED BY STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS. HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 1MB
PER HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING AND BY
MIDDAY FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EAST
ARKANSAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNSET AND MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE/ALABAMA
BY MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
THREE QUARTERS AND 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST IN EAST
ARKANSAS.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...SO DON`T
EXPECT A DRASTIC COOL DOWN. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE SHOULD SEE A DAY OR TWO OF SUNSHINE
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SO RAINFALL ISN`T EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEAR SKIES TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK.

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. A VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SURFACE WINDS READILY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 15-25 KTS BY 15Z.
GUSTS SHOULD APPROACH 30-35 KTS AT MOST SITES AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TIMING THE BAND OF FRONTAL
CONVECTION. A ROUGHLY 2 HOUR PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL SURGE BEFORE MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN IN LIGHT
RAIN. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SWITCH TO WSW UPON PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH...BUT REGAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMED THE PRECIP THROUGH THE TERMINALS LARGELY
BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE.

TVT

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
TUNICA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-
LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DYER-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-
GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SEATTLE WA

330 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA TODAY. A TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SHOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN. A WEAK FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING MORE RAIN
ON THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM...A 980 MB SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN B.C.
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH WIND IS POSSIBILITY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
NORTH INTERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND INTERIOR
THROUGH NOON ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE MAINLY BEEN SUB-CRITERIA SO
FAR.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW AND A COOL UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A FEW
MORE INCHES ON SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2000 FEET.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS A RIDGE FORMS OVER THE NE
PAC. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING...THEN DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE
WILL NUDGE INLAND ON TUESDAY FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS SE THROUGH B.C. AND WESTERN WA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN.

WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRY AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE. THE
GFS HAS BEEN WAFFLING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE ECMWF IS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION. 33

.LONG TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL CLIP WESTERN WA ON THURSDAY AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. THE FRONT IS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER OREGON
BUT THERE IS SOME PRECIP SPREADING NORTH INTO WESTERN WA. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER
AND WETTER THAN THE ECMWF SO FAR. A TROUGH WILL FORM OFF THE COAST
NEXT WEEKEND FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. 33

.HYDROLOGY...THE ONLY RIVER REACHES STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ARE THE
SKOKOMISH AND THE LOWER CHEHALIS. BOTH RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE TODAY. NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 7.

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE WILL FILL TO 990 MB AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING W
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AIR MASS MOIST WITH SOME DRYING ALOFT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH
SHOWERS...DECREASING BY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
MOSTLY VFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE VISIBILITY 4-6SM AT TIMES.

KSEA...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. S WIND 15-20 KT
W/ GUSTS 30 KT...EASING LATE THIS EVENING. VFR CIGS MOST OF
TODAY...THE MVFR DEVELOPING BY TONIGHT. SHOWERS...ENDING TONIGHT.

.MARINE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS HUNG UP ALONG THE VANCOUVER ISLAND
COAST BUT SHOULD START TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN B.C. AND
FILL TO 990 MB LATER THIS MORNING. RECENT MODELS SHOW A BIT LESS
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BUT STILL WARRANT KEEPING GALES GOING ALL
WATERS. THE STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL END AT 4 AM...TRANSITIONING TO GALES THE REST OF TODAY.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY EASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

THE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INTERIOR WATERS FOR
PART OF THIS MORNING DUE TO HIGH TIDES AND TIDAL ANOMALIES DUE TO
LOW ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE. SEE THE LATEST COAST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR
DETAILS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT IN PUGET SOUND AND TO 40 KT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR COULD GENERATE WIND WAVES ADDING TO MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW CONCERNS.

WEST SWELL TO 25 TO 30 FEET IS IMPACTING THE COAST THIS MORNING AND
WILL SUBSIDING TO 20 TO 25 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BELOW 20
FEET TONIGHT.

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TODAY FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-EVERETT AND
VICINITY-HOOD CANAL AREA-SAN JUAN COUNTY-SEATTLE AND
VICINITY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA-WESTERN SKAGIT
COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST TODAY FOR CASCADES OF
PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING
COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM
COUNTY.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CENTRAL COAST-
NORTH COAST.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.

HIGH SURF WARNING THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH COAST.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH COAST.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TODAY FOR OLYMPICS.

PZ...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING.

STORM WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
NORTHWARD IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM THIS MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR THROUGH MONDAY FOR GRAYS
HARBOR BAR.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue over the region today and tonight
with continued accumulating snow in the mountains making travel
difficult across area passes. A drying trend will begin on Monday
Temperatures will turn colder for next week with the active
weather pattern continuing.

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...A somewhat complex and dynamic weather
pattern exists over the region this morning. The satellite loop
depicts an occluding low pressure over Vancouver Island with a
second incipient surface low developing underneath a baroclinc
leaf structure at the base of a deepening offshore trough
approaching the Oregon Coast.

The frontal complex associated with the occluding low has already
passed through the forecast area...and regional radar suggests with
westerly flow in the wake of the occluded front a nice rain
shadow has enveloped the Columbia Basin...while the same westerly
flow promotes continued slop-over snow along the Cascade Crest and
continuous dense snow showers driving into the Idaho Panhandle
Mountains. This has warranted some changes overnight to the
current suite of winter weather highlights. The Winter Storm
warning for the Cascades has been cancelled...replaced with a
Winter Weather Advisory for areas near the Cascade Crest through
this morning as the slop-over continues but tapers off in direct
proportion to distance from the crest. The Winter Weather
Advisories across the northern Washington mountain zones have been
scrapped with significant precipitation having ended. The Winter
Storm Warnings above 4000 feet for the Panhandle Mountains will
continue in this westerly orographic flow regime...as will the WSW
for the Blue Mountains.

For today the main issue of concern...besides the orographic snow
issues...is the potential of the isentropic precipitation shield
to second system to dig northward into the forecast area as the
next surface low develops over Oregon today. Model consensus is
that this threat will mainly impact the southeastern zones with
basin rain and snow on the higher elevations of the Blues and the
Camas Prairie...and the Camas has been added to the highlight
suite with a Winter Weather Advisory for a slow but steady
accumulation of 3 to 5 inches of snow from today through midday
Monday...with a good chance of rain from Pullman southward over
the lower elevations.

Tonight the old occluded low pressure will meander into the
forecast area from the northwest...weakening further as it does
but with adequate moisture remaining throughout the region just
about every location will be subject to a brief period of snow
showers...best chance of minor further accumulations over the
mountains surrounding the basin...with little or no accumulation
in the basin overnight tonight. The cooler air being drawn into
the region with the arrival of the parent trough will promote snow
at all elevations tonight...but with little accumulation outside
of the mountains.

On Monday finally some drier air will begin to seep into the
region from the north and promote a drying trend from the
northwest to the southeast during the day...with high temperatures
finally settling back into the seasonably normal cool range.
/Fugazzi

Monday night through Saturday...A cooler and drier weather pattern
is expected initially before more unsettled weather returns by the
end of the week. Overall model agreement is good in depicting the
general pattern, but show differences with important details
beginning as early as Wednesday night.

Monday night through Wednesday: Overall a drier northwest flow is
expected although a short wave and associated vort max does drop
down from the northwest into the Idaho Panhandle Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. The ECMWF has consistently been a bit
stronger with this wave compared to the GFS...and the past four
GFS runs have been trending towards the ECMWF. The ECMWF solution
would support the potential for 1 to 3 inches of snow for the
Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle Mountains with up to an inch
of snow for the North Idaho Panhandle...Coeur D`Alene area...and
Palouse. Snow levels will be down to the valley floors giving even
Lewiston a potential dusting. The Cascade crest may also see
light accumulations.

Wednesday night through Saturday: Models continue to show a wetter
system impacting the Inland NW which will likely cause some travel
impacts. Although the details are not consistent especially
timing. The GFS and Canadian models bring precip in Wednesday
night while the ECMWF brings in a drier punch from the north
behind the wave that tracks through Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning...such that the next system holds off til late Thursday
afternoon in the Cascades and then across the remainder of the
area Thursday night. Inherited forecast favored the slower
solution and since the ECMWF has been more consistent will
continue to lean this way. Initially snow levels should be low
enough for snow for all areas except possibly Lewiston area. Then
milder southwest flow develops with snow changing to rain in the
valleys from south to north. Although some solutions hold on to
enough cold air that the valleys near the Canadian border and in
the Cascades may not change over. There is loose agreement in the
models of snow for most areas Thursday night...changing to rain in
the valleys along and south of I-90 Friday...and then possibly
changing over to rain in the northern valleys and Cascade valleys
on Saturday. The potential for light to moderate snow
accumulations exists with possibly localized heavy amounts
especially in the mountains. A brief period of localized freezing
rain also can not be ruled out during the transition period from
snow to rain. JW

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Back edge of the weather system passing over the aviation
area tonight is resulting in a decrease in precipitation and
somewhat of an improving trend. However the abundant low level
moisture and southerly/southwesterly flow is likely to result in
problematic MVFR to IFR stratus over the KGEG area and
vicinity...while fog has been less of an issue. /Pelatti

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 40 28 35 23 31 23 / 10 20 20 0 0 20
Coeur d`Alene 40 30 35 26 32 26 / 20 30 30 0 10 50
Pullman 40 30 34 27 32 26 / 70 30 30 10 10 40
Lewiston 45 33 40 29 37 30 / 80 30 30 10 10 20
Colville 39 28 36 21 31 22 / 20 30 20 0 10 20
Sandpoint 38 29 35 24 32 25 / 40 40 30 10 10 50
Kellogg 35 27 33 23 28 25 / 60 50 30 20 10 60
Moses Lake 45 28 40 21 35 22 / 10 20 10 0 0 10
Wenatchee 41 30 38 25 34 26 / 10 20 10 0 0 10
Omak 38 28 35 23 30 24 / 20 20 10 0 0 10

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for Central Panhandle
Mountains.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM PST
Monday for Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for Northern
Panhandle.

WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for Northeast Blue
Mountains.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for East
Slopes Northern Cascades.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
941 PM PST SAT DEC 12 2015

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for Central Panhandle
Mountains.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for Northern
Panhandle.

WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday for Northeast Blue
Mountains.

Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM PST Sunday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM PST Sunday for Northeast
Mountains.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

254 PM PST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS....SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN TO THE NORTH BAY BY THURSDAY...BUT NOT TO
THE REST OF THE REGION UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...BUSY DAY AT THE OFFICE AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVED THROUGH OUR AREA. HRRR ENDED UP
VERIFYING NICELY BOTH WITH AMOUNTS AND TIMING AS MANY SPOTS PICKED
UP 1/3-2/3" WITH LOCAL SPOTS OVER 1". COASTAL RANGES ENDED UP WITH
EVEN HIGHER NUMBERS ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH BAY WHERE 1-2" HAS
FALLEN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. WINDS ALSO VERIFIED NICELY WITH MANY
SPOTS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH WITH QUITE A FEW REPORTS OF SPEEDS OVER
40 MPH.

CONDITIONS HAVE CALMED CONSIDERABLY ALTHOUGH UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPOSTED WITH A FEW OF THE
STORMS AND THAT POSSIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 1/10" ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS COULD SEE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WOULD WOULD GENERATE
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1/4". WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
LOWER (LAST HOUR ONLY ONE SPOT WAS OVER 40 MPH) SO THE WIND
ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. WOULD STILL EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS, HOWEVER CRITERIA WILL NOT GENERALLY BE MET.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS RIDGING
TAKES PLACE ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE MAIN STORM
TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME COOL AIR WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE. WIDESPREAD MID
30S TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT WITH SOME NORTH BAY AND
SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 28 TO 32
DEGREE RANGE. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY. WILL
REEXAMINE THAT ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WHEN NEW DATA IS AVAILABLE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN MAY RETURN AS EARLY ON THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTH BAY AS THE OVERALL FLOW STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT WHILE A SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE BC COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN SPREAD DOWN THE
COAST AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHEAST.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN POORER AGREEMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A LONGWAVE TROF MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. A LOW WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND MOVE TO THE EAST NEAR OUR COAST.
WHERE THIS LOW ENDS UP GOING WILL DICTATE IF WE HAVE WIDESPREAD
RAIN OR IF MOST IF THE BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST
ECMWF/GFS IS GOING WITH THE DRIER ROUTE FOR OUR CWA WHILE 12Z
INDICATED THAT IT WOULD MOVE STARTING INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH WOULD BRING RAIN TO OUR ENTIRE AREA BY
LATE SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN GOING FOR MOST
SPOTS.

RIGHT NOW 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS THAT WOULD TAKE US TO
DECEMBER 29TH FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:47 AM PST SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY WHICH
WILL LIKELY BRING DELAYS TO MUCH OF THE REGION. A VERY POTENT COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE THE BAY AREA. TIMING OF
FROPA WILL BE 18-19Z FOR KSFO/KOAK. HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY FROPA. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN TAPERS
OFF LATER TODAY WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SFO AND WINDS HAVE
SWITCHED TO WESTERLY GUSTING TO 35KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AN AWW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
KSFO THRU 06Z WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 KT.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH LATE MORNING. RAIN WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AFTER 19Z. WINDS SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST
AFTER 22Z.

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHTER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...SF BAY
GLW...SF BAY UNTIL 8 PM

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: SIMS
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

110 PM PST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING STORM WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 TONIGHT THEN EXIT TO THE EAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS AND DELAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SIERRA
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SLICK ROADS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN WESTERN
NEVADA. A DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW WITH COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM NEXT WEEKEND EXISTS BUT
THERE IS LOW FORECAST CERTAINTY.

.SHORT TERM...

SO THIS STORM HAS TAKEN ON A DIFFERENT CHARACTERISTIC THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SFC FRONT HAS SPED UP FAR MORE THAN THE MOST
RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEVADA WELL
AHEAD OF THE COLDEST AIR AND CAUSING PCPN INTENSITY TO SLOW IN THE
NORTHERN SIERRA EARLIER THAN FORECAST. ALL OF THIS CAN SEVERELY
IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND SNOW THAT WE RECEIVE IN THIS STORM.

THERE IS A GLIMMER OF HOPE THAT MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE SIERRA...COULD STILL PICK UP APPRECIABLE SNOW THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE MODELS PERSIST IN DEVELOPING A BAND OF SNOW
OVER WESTERN NEVADA AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA LATER THIS EVENING AS
A SECONDARY WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE COLD
SECTOR OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS WAS THE REASON FOR EXTENDING THE
ADVISORIES FOR MONO COUNTY AND THE SIERRA FRONT AND ADDING AND
ADVISORY TO SOUTHERN LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WE HAVE TO
CAUTION...HOWEVER...THAT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION AND SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAINS QUITE LOW. WE DO THIS TO GIVE TRAVELERS A HEADS
UP THAT ROAD CONDITIONS EAST OF THE SIERRA COULD DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

GUSTY WINDS WERE AN ISSUE EARLIER IN THE DAY...BUT THESE HAVE
DECREASED AND ALL OF THE WIND ADVISORIES AND THE WARNING WILL BE
DROPPED.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD PRODUCE LIMITED SNOW AMOUNTS.
THE BIGGER STORY EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND
THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 IN THE SIERRA. BY WEDNESDAY THESE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM BUT WE ALSO SEE THE SIGNS OF WEAK OVER
RUNNING PCPN TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. 20

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...

SO EVEN THOUGH ON THE BIG PICTURE THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS A
SIMILAR FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN US, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN STORM POTENTIAL LEADING TO FAIRLY LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT - STRONG WARM ADVECTION SCENARIO OVER
THE REGION LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP NORTH OF I-80. GFS
IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH QPF COMPARED TO ECMWF, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
MODERATE CHANCE POPS. IF GFS SCENARIO PANS OUT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND INTENSITY OF WARM ADVECTION SUPPORT HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS MODOC
COUNTY INTO NW NEVADA. DEFINITELY WORTH WATCHING NOT ONLY FOR THIS
OUTCOME BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENTLY PROJECTED.

SATURDAY-MONDAY - WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW MAINLY IN
THE SIERRA FOR THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE. GFS WOULD YIELD 2-3 BACK TO BACK MODERATE WINTER STORMS
WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW ALOFT, WHILE ECMWF DIGS THE STORM TRACK
FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOCAL SAT/SUN BUT STILL HAS A STORM INTO OUR
REGION MONDAY. EITHER WAY, THIS PATTERN BEARS WATCHING SINCE NEXT
WEEKEND WE`LL BE GETTING INTO THE PEAK PRE-CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PERIOD
WITH ENHANCED IMPACT POTENTIAL. CS

.AVIATION...

TRICKY FORECAST WITH ONGOING WINTER STORM AND RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
IN THE WESTERN NV VALLEYS (RNO/CXP). OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
THE TAFS IS ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM.

LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONTINUED
+SN IN THE SIERRA (TVL/TRK) THROUGH ~23Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG WIND AND SNOW AT MMH RIGHT NOW, EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH ~3Z BEFORE FADING TO SNOW SHOWERS. NO DOUBT THERE
WILL BE SNOW ACCUMULATION IMPACTS TO RUNWAYS IN THE SIERRA, WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.

IN WESTERN NV (RNO/CXP) STRONG S/SW WINDS WITH WIND SHEAR ON
APPROACH AND TURBULENCE ALOFT CONTINUE ~0Z BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE
W/NW AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL SWITCH TO
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PERHAPS ALL WET SNOW BY 22Z BUT RUNWAY
ACCUMULATIONS HIGHLY UNLIKELY DUE TO WARM/WET GROUND AND A QUICK
TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. THIS EVENING, NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SHOW A
SECONDARY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH OF RNO THAT COULD PUT
DOWN 1-2" ACCUMULATIONS AT CXP AND NEARBY AIRFIELDS SUCH AS
NFL/HTH/YERINGTON. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE FORMING IS ONLY
LOW-MEDIUM, SO THERE`S A CHANCE IT MAY NOT HAPPEN AT ALL BUT
ENOUGH OF A RISK TO WARRANT MENTION. THE BAND OF SNOW COULD FORM
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT RNO BUT UNCERTAIN.

FOR MONDAY, COLD AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS LIKELY IN FAVORED AREAS FOR NORTH FLOW
SUCH AS HTH/BIH/TPH. SCT-BKN VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA. CS

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ005.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ002.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST
MONDAY NVZ001.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY NVZ003.

CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ070.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY CAZ073.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ072.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1159 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

ADJUSTED FRONT END OF GRIDS/ZONES AND ALSO ADDED EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 01Z MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OTERO...BENT
AND WESTERN KIOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 01Z MONDAY. ALSO...ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CROWLEY COUNTY TO EXPIRE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

...SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TODAY...

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE FOG AT KALS TONIGHT...PROJECT THAT
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MONDAY AS TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ094-096-
098-099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ093-
095-097.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1035 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

...SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TODAY...

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE FOG AT KALS TONIGHT...PROJECT THAT
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MONDAY AS TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ089-093>095-
097.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ096-098-
099.

$$
|

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

331 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE
CONUS IS THE POTENT UPPER LOW EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF SOUTHERN STREAM
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER THE MS
VALLEY WHERE A RAINY SUNDAY IS UNDERWAY. THIS IS IN BIG CONTRAST
TO OUR LOCAL WEATHER WHERE WE CONTINUE TO BE PROTECTED BY A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK FOR LIKE EARLY FALL THAN THE
MIDDLE OF DECEMBER UNDER THIS DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE. WHILE THE
RIDGE WILL NOT COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN OVER OUR HEADS...WE WILL SEE
IT WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS THE LOW
ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTY HEADS EAST AND NORTHEAST.

WHILE IT IS NOT OF CONSEQUENCE TO OUR CURRENT LOCAL WEATHER...THE
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING WESTERN ALASKA IS WORTH A MENTION. THIS LOW
WAS ANALYZED WITH A PRESSURE AROUND 925MB EARLIER THIS MORNING
AND AT THE TIME WAS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 120 MPH. QUITE
IMPRESSIVE FOR A NON-TROPICAL LOW.

AT THE SURFACE...1025MB HIGH PRESSURE (100MB HIGHER THAN THE LOW
OVER THE BERING SEA) IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST PROVIDING
OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME AROUND ITS SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. AS HAS BEEN SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE
300-310K SURFACES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS LIFTING THE
SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SEEN ON THE MORNING KTBW SOUNDING
PROFILE UNDER 700MB...AND IS RESULT IN A BKN CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR WHERE THE MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DEEPEST.

GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
AND WEAK UPGLIDE...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING ON REGION RADARS AND QUICKLY MIGRATING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF ONLY LIGHT ACTIVITY (PERHAPS A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN A FEW SPOTS). AROUND THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES TO
THE GRIDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW DROPS REACHING THE SURFACE
BRIEFLY. OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FROM ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY. NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE MOISTURE SEEMS
TOO SHALLOW TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY SHOWERS AND KEEPING POPS LESS THAN
10%.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP IMPORTING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND RESULT IN ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
WARM OVERNIGHT FOR THE PENINSULA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LIKELY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT
OF LOWER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. LEANING TOWARD STRATUS
OVER FOG FOR NOW...BUT IS TRICKY FORECAST TO WHETHER SOME AREAS OF
DENSE SURFACE FOG WILL MATERIALIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST SREF/NARRE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

MONDAY... FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
GULF/FL BIG BEND REGION. ALL THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE DEEP SOUTH SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND COINCIDENT PLUME OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO STRETCH/SHEAR
OUT. ALL THIS SUGGEST WE SEE THE THE BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DECAY SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO ARRIVE OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. CURRENT POPS FOR MONDAY HAVE 20% DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER LEVY COUNTY...AND THIS LOW RAIN CHANCE IS ABOUT ALL
WE CAN EXPECT. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS ON
MONDAY...SUNNY BREAKS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST. THE AIRMASS
POTENTIAL IS QUITE HIGH WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 16C...SO EVEN A
LITTLE SUN WILL BOOST TEMPS QUITE QUICKLY. WOULD EXPECT MANY
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO REACH THE LOWER 80S.
THE WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OFF THE RELATIVELY
COOLER SHELF WATERS BY AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
BEACHES IN THE 70S.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BY TUESDAY
NEAR CHIEFLAND/GAINSEVILLE/OCALA AREA BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT INTO AL/GA WEDNESDAY. MOST GLOBAL MODEL MEMBERS
ARE THEN SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AMPLIFICATION BY SATURDAY. IF THIS
FORECAST HOLDS...NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
THIS THIS CURRENT WEEKEND. MORE ON THE LONG TERM FORECAST BELOW.

HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR SUNDAY EVERYONE!

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAILING INTO THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY
MAINLY FOR THE NATURE COAST REGION...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT PULLS AWAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...EXPECT THIS FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA
AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH A DEEPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WILL INCREASE STARTING LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR IN GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING
THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE ECMWF
MAYBE JUST 6-12 HOURS BEHIND THE GFS. WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR NOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS
ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE COLDER DAY WILL BE SUNDAY
ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SOME SPOTS
OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE 30S...WITH 40S FOR
THE MOST PART ELSEWHERE. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 60S.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE.
GUSTY WINDS DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS OF GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS/FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADDED PREVAILING
MVFR AFTER 06-08Z FOR ALL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IN IFR OVERNIGHT
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA AND THEN STALLS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH MID-
WEEK.

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND THEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE STALLING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...HOWEVER DISPERSION INDICES
ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
STATE LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOG POTENTIAL...
PATCHY FOG EARLY IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FOG EVENT BOTH IN DURATION AND COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 68 80 68 81 / 10 10 10 20
FMY 69 82 69 84 / 20 10 10 20
GIF 67 83 67 83 / 20 10 10 20
SRQ 68 78 68 81 / 10 10 10 20
BKV 68 82 66 81 / 10 10 10 20
SPG 68 79 69 81 / 10 10 10 20

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

249 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

...WARM TEMPS WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AND LIGHT SHOWERS...

.NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...

A COASTAL TROUGH WAS OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL GA/FL ATLANTIC COAST
WITH BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH AT TIMES AS HIGH
TEMPS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID 70S COAST. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WAS JUST WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. RADAR
INDICATED A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS OUR SE FL ZONES AT TIMES
INCLUDING FLAGLER AND PUTNAM COUNTIES...BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL
WAS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OFFSHORE OF CAPE
CANAVERAL. OVERALL EXPECT A DRY AND BREEZY AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN OVER S FL AND BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
MOISTURE POOLING AND SHALLOW LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS...WITH A MORE ADVECTION FOG AND LOW STRATUS EVENT
EXPECTED. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND EVEN SKIRTING OVER OUR EASTERN FL ZONES TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. DEEP LAYER WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL ENABLE MOIST AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH WILL CHALLENGE
RECORD MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR DEC 14...SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.

MON...WARM WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A
SHEARED OUT FRONTAL ZONE AND PRE-FRONTAL RAINFALL EDGES CLOSER
TOWARD THE AREA INTO THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. CONTINUED TO ONLY
ADVERTISED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWER (NEAR 30%) AS WAVES OF PRECIP
MOVE OVER THE AREA. BREEZY SSW WINDS MAY NEAR 15 MPH AT TIMES WITH
MAX TEMPS CHALLENGING RECORD HIGH VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 80S
DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.SHORT TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SE ACROSS THE REGION AND IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS NE
FL ON TUESDAY AS IT LOSSES UPPER SUPPORT. A NARROW SLUG OF MOISTURE
AND LIFT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
SE GA MONDAY NIGHT AND NE FL TUESDAY. NEAR NIL POPS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THERE. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. CONTINUED AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ON ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...A DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN...BUT GOOD
AGREEMENT TODAY BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SE GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND NE FL FRIDAY
MORNING. BOTH MODELS ALSO BRING IN A GOOD SLUG OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
TO WARRANT AT LEAST LIKELY POPS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR STORMS DUE
TO LIMITED INSTABILITY SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT BUT COULD STILL
HAVE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. POPS
DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE NW TO SE ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TEMPS BEGIN OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH EVEN NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL COOL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH USHERS IN A
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO THE AREA. WHILE NO FREEZES ARE EXPECTED...MIN
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND SE
GA AND THE SUWANEE VALLEY EARLY SUN AM WHICH WILL BE A GOOD 30
DEGREES COLDER THAN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS NEAR 2.5-3 KFT POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE FL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 21-22Z DUE TO DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS FIELD...OTHERWISE DOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
UNDER BREEZY EAST WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 15-20 KTS THIS AFTN.

WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT AND VEER ESE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD UP THE FL PENINSULA. LATEST HRRR AND SREF GUIDANCE WERE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...AS THE HRRR
INDICATED BEST CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS NE FL ALONG LIFTING WARM FRONT...WHILE THE SREF ADVERTISED
LOW STRATUS/PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS SE GA. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUED
TO ADVERTISE LIFR TO VLIFR INLAND WITH IFR-MVFR ALONG THE COAST.

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE DID NOT INDICATE VSBY AS LOW AS OBSERVED LAST
NIGHT AND TEMPERED JAX...CRG...VQQ..AND SSI TO IFR AND MVFR AT SGJ.
VLIFR ADVERTISED AT GNV. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND FOR NOW ONLY ADVERTISED VCSH AT
SGJ. NOTE ELEVATED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OF 25-30
KTS AND AT THIS TIME DID NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION OF WIND
SHEAR IN THE TAFS TONIGHT.

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS LATE
MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND DECREASING SEAS. WEDNESDAY THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF
THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND MON.

.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH BEST
CHANCES MON. NEAR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS:

SITE SUN 12/13MON 12/14
JAX 83/1956 82/1956
GNV 85/1948 84/1967
AMG 83/1972 83/1967
SSI79/1948 79/2001

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT (12/14)
SITEMON 12/14
JAX68/1956
GNV66/1901
AMG63/1972
SSI66/2001

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 64 79 56 74 / 10 30 30 10
SSI 60 76 63 71 / 20 20 30 20
JAX 65 81 65 75 / 10 20 30 30
SGJ 66 81 66 73 / 20 30 20 30
GNV 66 81 66 77 / 10 30 30 30
OCF 66 83 66 78 / 10 30 20 30

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

ENYEDI/PETERSON/WALSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

1122 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
16Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE
CONUS IS THE POTENT UPPER LOW EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF SOUTHERN STREAM
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER THE MS
VALLEY WHERE A RAINY SUNDAY IS UNDERWAY. THIS IS IN BIG CONTRAST
TO OUR LOCAL WEATHER WHERE WE CONTINUE TO BE PROTECTED BY A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL NOT
COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...WE WILL SEE IT WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS WE HEAD
INTO TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS THE LOW ACROSS THE MID-
SECTION OF THE COUNTY HEADS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD.

WHILE IT IS NOT OF CONSEQUENCE TO OUR CURRENT LOCAL WEATHER...THE
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING WESTERN ALASKA IS WORTH A MENTION. THIS LOW
WAS ANALYZED WITH A PRESSURE AROUND 925MB THIS MORNING AND IS
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 100 MPH. QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR A NON-
TROPICAL LOW.

AT THE SURFACE...1025MB HIGH PRESSURE (100MB HIGHER THAN THE LOW
OVER THE BERING SEA) IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST PROVIDING
OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME AROUND ITS SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. AS HAS BEEN SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH (ANALYZED IN THE LATEST MSAS PLOT) IS
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL LIFT THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SEEN ON THE
MORNING KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE UNDER 850MB...AND SHOULD RESULT IN
QUITE AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. LIKELY THAT THESE AREAS WILL GO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE IS SHOWN TO EXPAND UP TO AROUND 700MB
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION (SOUTH OF I-4) THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND GIVEN THE WEAK UPGLIDE...CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES. THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT SUGGESTS ONLY VERY LIGHT ACTIVITY (PERHAPS A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN A FEW SPOTS). INHERITED GRIDS HAVE
20-30% POPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
COVERAGE. OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FROM ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY. NORTH OF I-4...THE MOISTURE SEEMS TOO SHALLOW TO
SQUEEZE OUT ANY SHOWERS AND KEEPING POPS LESS THAN 10%.

TONIGHT...
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE FLOW
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP IMPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND RESULT IN ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM OVERNIGHT FOR THE
PENINSULA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. LIKELY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF LOWER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. LEANING TOWARD STRATUS OVER FOG FOR NOW...BUT IS TRICKY
FORECAST TO WHETHER SOME AREAS OF DENSE SURFACE FOG WILL MATERIALIZE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST SREF/NARRE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

MONDAY... FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
GULF/FL BIG BEND REGION. ALL THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE DEEP SOUTH SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND COINCIDENT PLUME OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO STRETCH/SHEAR
OUT. ALL THIS SUGGEST WE SEE THE THE BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DECAY AND ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO ARRIVE
OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. CURRENT POPS FOR MONDAY HAVE 20% DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER LEVY COUNTY...AND THIS LOW RAIN CHANCE IS ABOUT ALL
WE CAN EXPECT. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS ON
MONDAY...SUNNY BREAKS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST. THE AIRMASS
POTENTIAL IS QUITE HIGH WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 16C...SO EVEN A
LITTLE SUN WILL BOOST TEMPS QUITE QUICKLY. WOULD EXPECT MANY
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. THE
WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OFF THE RELATIVELY
COOLER SHELF WATERS BY AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BEACHES
IN THE 70S.

HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR SUNDAY EVERYONE!

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
LATE THIS MORNING. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. WINDS BECOME
GUSTY INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST BUT THEN DECREASE TOWARD
SUNSET. AREAS OF GENERALLY MVFR CIGS/FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY ADD PREVAILING MVFR AFTER 06Z FOR ALL
TAFS WITH 18Z PACKAGE. CONFIDENCE IN IFR OVERNIGHT IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE TRENDS.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
KEEP MODERATE EAST WINDS IN PLACE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND STALL OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH MID-
WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 69 81 68 / 10 10 10 10
FMY 82 69 83 69 / 30 20 10 10
GIF 80 68 83 67 / 10 10 10 10
SRQ 80 69 79 68 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 82 68 82 67 / 10 10 10 10
SPG 79 69 79 69 / 10 10 10 10

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

230 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 126 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

First, went ahead with a Wind Advisory for mainly this evening.
The RAP and GFS both show a notable and precise increase in 950mb
winds 50-60 kts, with lapse rates in this layer (even looking up
to 925 mb) on the order of 6-7.5., and interestingly enough right
across the PAH CWFA. This is concern enough to go ahead with an
Advisory. The strongest winds should happen right along and out
ahead of the main band of showers and cold front that will move
across the area. We will see if it comes to fruition. If nothing
else it should come close.

Otherwise categorical Pops for showers tonight. No change with
respect to thunder. Will be leaving it out given the all but zero
chance. PoPs will be on the decrease after midnight west 1/2 of
the area. Monday, wrap around chance of light showers will be
maintained mainly for the north 2/3 of the area. Chances should
shift off to the northeast by early afternoon, with dry and cooler
weather forecast right on through Tuesday. We maintained the
chance of showers developing across the area Tuesday night, mainly
after midnight. Temps geared more toward raw model output given
the active pattern. Some incorporation of MOS was used.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

A cold front will be moving across the PAH forecast area through the
day Wednesday. Models continue to generate some light QPF with its
passage, with ECMWF be a bit more generous than the GFS and
Canadian. Will continue with slight to low chance pops for showers
across the entire area on Wednesday, with chances confined to just
our far eastern counties Wednesday night.

Wednesday will be our last mild day for the week, with high
temperatures reaching the upper 50s west and northwest to the lower
60s southeast. Winds will shift to the west to northwest behind the
cold front Wednesday night into Thursday, which will bring in more
seasonal air to our region, especially for Friday and into the early
part of the weekend. Our chilliest day will be Saturday when
temperatures will be a couple of degrees below seasonal normals.

Surface high pressure will move over our area Saturday night, and
with clear skies and near calm winds, this should our coldest night
of the forecast period with lows mostly in the middle 20s. The high
will move east of our region by Sunday, which will shift winds back
to the south. This will help temperatures rebound to near seasonal
readings.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1111 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

Light rain showers continued west of a line from KMVN to KSIK.
Little eastward progression is expected this afternoon with some
dissipation expected as well. Otherwise generally VFR lower cigs
with some MVFR at times in and near the precip region. Gusty SSE
winds up to 20 kts as well. We will see the winds pick up later
this afternoon and continue through the evening. Some gusts 30-35
kts likely from the SSE, at least until the main band of showers
arrives tonight. The main push of showers will be starting 03z
KCGI...04-06z east toward KPAH/KEVV/KOWB, with ending times from
09-11z. Mostly MVFR vsbys with the showers. Gusty SSW winds
expected in the wake of the precip with mainly MVFR cigs
persisting, and isolated light showers possible.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Monday for
ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.

IN...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Monday for
INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Monday for
KYZ001>022.

SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...RST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

126 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 126 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 316 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

Above average confidence in the long term period as latest model
runs come into better agreement.

At the beginning of the period a cold front with limited moisture to
tap into will be bearing down on our CWA. The timing of the FROPA on
Wednesday still differs between the GFS and ECMWF with the GFS being
the faster model, but at least now they both crank out small
precipitation chances on Wednesday mainly across the eastern two
thirds of our CWA.

Depending on the actual passage of the front, precipitation chances
may linger over the Pennyrile region of western Kentucky Wednesday
night.

Beyond that Thursday, Thursday night, and Friday look dry as high
pressure overspreads the region under broad cyclonic flow aloft.

Friday night a weak short wave will push/pull a surface trough
across the region but with very limited moisture. With the passage
of these features the GFS cranks out light precipitation over the
northeastern sections of our CWA but the ECMWF keeps it dry as does
the Superblend, so will keep dry for now. For all of the snow
mongers out there, if this scenario were to produce precipitation,
it should fall in the form of snow as temperatures will be below
freezing. We shall see...

Temperatures starting off the period above normal will quickly drop
back to near normal and continue through the remainder of the
period.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1111 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Monday for
ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.

IN...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Monday for
INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Monday for
KYZ001>022.

SHORT TERM...CN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

221 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY DESPITE RAIN FORECAST. COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS...BEFORE A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA...THINNING CIRRUS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PEAKS OF SUN IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE TURNPIKE...HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN. THIS MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR US
REACHING OUR RECORD HIGH HERE IN PIT TODAY BUT RECORD HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT OUR OTHER CLIMATE SITES.

EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OVERNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. THUS...KEPT A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST FOR LOWS.

HAVE STRAYED LITTLE FROM THE POP FORECAST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAIN SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AMONG
THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THE HI RES MODELS HAVE SLOWED TO A NAM
SOLUTION...SO ONSET IN OUR OHIO COUNTIES WAS PUSHED BACK A FEW
HOURS. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD VALUES ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WIND
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTS...WARRANTING A HEADLINE...IS LOW.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE TRAVERSING THROUGH WESTERN PA AT THE
START OF THE SHORT TERM...WHILE MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS UNDER THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOK FOR A BREAK IN THE
EVENING AS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT RESIDES OVERHEAD. EVEN WITH H8
WINDS AROUND 40-50 KTS...INVERSION HEIGHT REMAINS BELOW CORE WIND
SPEEDS KEEPING GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE. THIS IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY
LOCAL WIND STUDY USING JET PLACEMENT THROUGH ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
AND JUXTAPOSITION OF H5 AND SURFACE LOW.

A CLOUD TUESDAY IS FORECAST AS BOUNDARY REMAINS SATURATED AND A
POCKET OF MID LEVEL COOLING OVERHEAD COULD SPAWN OFF A SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT MOSTLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

TUESDAY EVENING CLEARING WORKS WEST TO EAST FROM OHIO AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TRANSITIONING TO AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND
- SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
- WARMING BACK UP CHRISTMAS WEEK

LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OPERATIONAL RUNS OF
GFS AND ECMWF. FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
STRATUS AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPS MOISTURE OVER NWRN PA AND
PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FARTHER
SOUTH OVER WEST VIRGINIA FOG IS FAVORED OVER STRATUS DUE TO SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE PLACEMENT ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. SOUNDINGS
ILLUSTRATE A 12C DELTA AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION SO BURN OFF COULD
TAKE A WHILE. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD AS A TRANSITORY
RIDGE CROSSES WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY. EXPECT YET ANOTHER MILD
DECEMBER DAY WITH H8 TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO DOUBLE DIGITS ONCE
AGAIN...WHICH EQUATES TO MAX T WELL INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALLOWS A CYCLONE TO TRAVERSE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE OCCLUDED YIELDING A
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH FROPA AT SOME POINT THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDEST
AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON...WHICH IS NOT SAYING MUCH ARRIVES FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A COMPLETE 180 FORECAST FROM THIS
WEEKEND AS TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH PASS FREEZING...WHILE
PTYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. GIVEN FLOW IS WESTERLY NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH LAKE EFFECT IN OUR REGION SAVE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80.
EVEN THERE...WITH THE WARM GROUND DO NOT FORESEE MUCH /IF ANY/ IN
THE WAY ACCUMULATION. THE LAST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS SUNDAY
ALLOWING FLOW TO TURN SOUTHWEST AND START A MODERATING TREND INTO
CHRISTMAS WEEK BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH WHAT LOW
STRATOCUMULUS THAT REMAINS SCATTERING OUT OR LIFTING THIS
AFTERNOON. BUFKIT PROFILES AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES AS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
TRAVERSES THE REGION.

BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS...HAVE INTRODUCED RESTRICTIONS AT ZZV AND
PIT WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS AT 15 AND 18Z RESPECTIVELY.

.OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WIND ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER IN STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS ESTABLISHED ALL CLIMATE SITES FOR DECEMBER 13TH SAVE
FOR LONGEST PERIOD OF RECORD LOCATION /PITTSBURGH/. RECORD WARMTH
POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY DESPITE RAIN.

RECORD HIGHS FOR PITTSBURGH
DECEMBER 13TH 71 IN 1901
DECEMBER 14TH 67 IN 1901

RECORD HIGHS FOR ZANESVILLE
DECEMBER 13TH 62 IN 2001
DECEMBER 14TH 65 IN 1975

RECORD HIGHS FOR MORGANTOWN
DECEMBER 13TH 65 IN 2001
DECEMBER 14TH 71 IN 2001

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1158 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THICK CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION MAY INHIBIT INSOLATION...BUT
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH
RECORD VALUES ONCE AGAIN TODAY.

THE MODELS DO CLEAR OUT THE LOW DECK BY AFTERNOON...SO SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE CIRRUS IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE IN THE
DAY. EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OVERNIGHT...AS THE COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. WARM
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. THUS...KEPT
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOCUS WILL TURN TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SWING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...RECENT MODEL
RUNS HAVE TRACKED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEWEST
FORECAST KEEPS NEARLY ALL RAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING LATE
MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH EACH MODEL RUN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WHICH IN TURN IS
LESSENING THE WINDS THAT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS THE
COLDER AIR SETTLES IN...BUT NOT MUCH PRECIP. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT ON TUESDAY AS THE HEART OF THE COLDER AIR MOVES
THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL
MOVE BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS ON TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH WHAT LOW
STRATOCUMULUS THAT REMAINS SCATTERING OUT OR LIFTING THIS
AFTERNOON. BUFKIT PROFILES AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES AS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
TRAVERSES THE REGION.

BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS...HAVE INTRODUCED RESTRICTIONS AT ZZV AND
PIT WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS AT 15 AND 18Z RESPECTIVELY.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AGAIN DECEMBER 13TH...SAVE FOR LONGER
PERIOD OF RECORD SITE OF PITTSBURGH.

RECORD HIGHS FOR PITTSBURGH
DECEMBER 13TH 71 IN 1901

RECORD HIGHS FOR ZANESVILLE
DECEMBER 13TH 62 IN 2001

RECORD HIGHS FOR MORGANTOWN
DECEMBER 13TH 52 IN 2001

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1214 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW CIGS
AND OR VSBYS IN FOG. SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR DECEMBER STANDARDS...WILL KEEP LOW
CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. UPSLOPE NORTHEAST
FLOW...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW...WILL ALSO ALLOW VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
TO FALL INTO THE LIFR RANGE AT TIMES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
/MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

1046 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR DATA. ALSO...LATEST HRRR DATA SHOWING SQUEEGEE
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND PUSHING ALL ALONG OOUR NORTHERN TIER OF COOUNTIES. SOME
INTERESTING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES...INCLUDING LINE BREAKS...ARE NOTED
IN THE HRRR OUTPUT. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTH...WILL
EXTEND LIMITED RISK IN THE HWO INTO THESE AREAS AS FEEL SOME
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL APPROACH SEVERE STRENGTH WITH THE AMBIENT
FLOW SUCH THAT IT IS./26/

.AVIATION...BROKEN MVFR CIGS ARE OBSERVED AT MOST SITES ACROSS THE
AREA AT MID-MORNING...BUT SHOULD LIFT TO MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY DAY IN
MOST SPOTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
30 KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. A SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 50 KT
WIND WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE MS RIVER
NEAR SUNSET INTO ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN ALONG
AND BEHIND THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT (FROM WEST TO
EAST), WITH BRIEF VISBY REDUCTIONS TO LOWER CATEGORIES IN +RA. CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT SOME TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. /DL/BB/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
MORNING`S FORECAST IS WIND POTENTIAL WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD THIS EARLY MORNING AS STRONG
WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
REMARKABLY, TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR CWA-WIDE. SCATTERED LIGHT PREFRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN
TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELTA, BUT MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY AT
THIS TIME.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE WEATHER MAPS, AN OCCLUDING UPPER TROUGH AND
POTENT SHORTWAVE ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS OK, WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THROUGH TONIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH/
SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES, WITH THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND DRAGGING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TODAY, THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE, AS WILL AMBIENT DEEP LAYER WIND ENERGY. AS THE LOW STRATUS
DECK BREAKS UP LATER THIS MORNING, MIXING WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS, WHICH ALONG WITH HELPING SOME LOCATIONS WARM TO NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPS, WILL ALSO HELP BRING SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE
SURFACE. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE A LARGER
AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. WHILE THE AREAS
FARTHER EAST ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS TO 45 MPH, SUSTAINED WIND
OF 25 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE ATTAINABLE AT TIMES.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THIS SYSTEM IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH. AS NOTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THIS LINE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE SHEAR, WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-70
KT AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2. THE MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
A LACK OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS LINE, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
ABILITY FOR CONVECTION TO TAP INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR. EVEN
PROGGED MUCAPES FAIL TO REACH 100 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA, AND THUS THE LIMITED THREAT FOR BE TRIMMED BACK A
BIT IN THESE AREAS. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE QLCS TO TAP INTO
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IS
WHERE THERE WILL BE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. THE LINE IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH
WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER NOON, REACHING THE I-55
CORRIDOR AFTER SUNSET, THEN THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT.

RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THE HIGH COULD
SETTLE OVER THE AREA JUST IN TIME TO PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATION COOLING
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT. THUS, WE NUDGED TUES MORNING FORECAST LOWS
DOWN A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. /DL/

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL BE IN PLACE FOLLOWING SUNDAYS COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH MIDWEEK.

BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO MINNESOTA. THIS WILL DRAG A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST. MODELS
AGREE THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND RIDE NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF
AND KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
COVER MORE OF THE CWA WITH PRECIPITATION(JUST RAIN) AND HAVE KEPT
WITH A MORE WET SOLUTION. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING IN MORE SEASONAL
WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN END TO ANY PRECIP AND DRY SFC HIGH WILL MOVE IN
FOR THE LAST WEEKEND BEFORE CHRISTMAS. /28/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 81 51 69 41 / 45 100 6 2
MERIDIAN 77 53 68 39 / 11 100 10 2
VICKSBURG 77 51 68 39 / 100 100 5 2
HATTIESBURG 79 54 72 43 / 25 100 8 1
NATCHEZ 75 51 70 43 / 100 100 5 2
GREENVILLE 76 51 64 41 / 99 100 5 2
GREENWOOD 80 51 65 38 / 50 100 6 2

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ025>033-036>039-
042>046-048>050.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-034-035-
040-041-047-053-059-060.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1106 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS EASTERN AREAS FROM THE WEST
TODAY...LINGERING LONGEST NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER OF NM. SKIES
WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIR ARRIVES. MANY AREAS WILL
HAVE GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT
SHOULD KEEP EASTERN AREAS FREE OF LOW CLOUDS...DESPITE FRESH SNOW
COVER. WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN HOWEVER...MELTING SNOW TODAY
COULD MOISTEN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS TONIGHT. HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

.PREV DISCUSSION...952 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015...
.UPDATE...
SNOWFALL IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NM SO HAVE
CANCELLED WINTER WX ADVISORIES. SITUATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES TO CREATE MAJOR IMPACTS WITH BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS.
SHORT-TERM AND HI RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP ENDING IN THE EAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL MAKE NO OTHER CHANGES. TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. FOR THE LATEST VISIT
NMROADS.COM OR DIAL 511.

GUYER

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ523-529-532>535-537.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ512>515-527-528-530-531.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

952 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...
SNOWFALL IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NM SO HAVE
CANCELLED WINTER WX ADVISORIES. SITUATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES TO CREATE MAJOR IMPACTS WITH BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS.
SHORT-TERM AND HI RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP ENDING IN THE EAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL MAKE NO OTHER CHANGES. TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. FOR THE LATEST VISIT
NMROADS.COM OR DIAL 511.

GUYER

.PREV DISCUSSION...438 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR CLOVIS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE EWD. LARGE
AREA OF WRAP-AROUND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ERN NM THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. MTS
OBSCURED IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW AND BR/FZFG. GUSTY W-NW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES BY MID MORNING...GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY FROM W TO E
THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND DEPARTING
UPPER LOW.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ523-529-532>535-537.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ512>515-527-528-530-531.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

120 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EST SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE. STILL SOME PATCHES OF SUN ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT,
OTHERWISE IT`S CLOUDY FOR ALL. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO AND STRETCHING INTO THE TUG HILL AREA OF
WESTERN NEW YORK. SOME OF THIS ISN`T REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER.
MESOSCALE MODELS ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA SLOWLY EXPANDING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END UP JUST
SKIMMING ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT CLOSE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC
AND FRONTOGENTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST NORTH OF THE BORDER. THAT
SHOULD BE HAPPENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z OR SO. DID SOME MINOR POP
GRID FIELD ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE HRRR, RAP AND LOCAL BTV 6KM.
STILL HAVE POPS ONLY IN THE 25-40% RANGE. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL. BASED ON MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES, IT
APPEARS THAT THE COLUMN ALOFT WILL ALL BE ABOVE FREEZING, SO
LOOKING AT JUST RAIN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW LOCALIZED
SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM COULD HAVE SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
31 OR 32F, MEANING JUST A TOUCH OF ICING ON SOME SURFACES. STILL
NEED TO EVALUATE THE 12Z GUIDANCE FURTHER, BUT AT THIS POINT IT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF FORMAL ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY RISING THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRENDS GETS MUCH
MORE TRICKY OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST KINGDOM TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
BACK EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST/SOUTH
FLOW WILL MEAN WARMER AIR COMING IN. SO LOTS OF THE REGION WILL
SEE STEADY OR PERHAPS SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. STRONGEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS FORCED DRAINAGE
FUNNELS DOWN THE VALLEY. COULD BE SOME DECENT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MASSENA AND OGDENSBURG (WHERE A WARMER
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP) FIRST THIS MONDAY.

MEANWHILE, THE TRAJECTORY OF THE FLOW FOR EASTERN VERMONT WILL BE
OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
BECOMING ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE GREENS. COULD ALSO MEAN MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG, PERHAPS A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS IN
EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL.

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN MOST AREAS AFTER 00Z AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT LEAST.
PRIMARILY DUE TO CEILINGS, THOUGH A LIGHT FOG (VISIBILITIES 4SM TO
6SM) COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN MANY LOCATIONS. LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FOR MPV WITH LOWER
CEILINGS AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AS WELL. DID SHOW IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR
IN MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING, BUT SLK AND MPV MAY
STILL BE HOLDING IN MVFR. INCLUDED MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AT SLK AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT STRENGTHENING WINDS AT
2000FEET ARE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO CROSS THE WIND SHEAR INCLUSION
THRESHOLD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 00Z WED...MVFR, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING). GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS TO 25KT OR SO.

00Z WED - 12Z THU...VFR.

12Z THU ONWARD...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NASH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

259 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

THIS QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 11 AM
MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 126 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CANCEL THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. CONTINUE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DENSE FOG TODAY. EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST NORTH
TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH THE FOG EXHIBITING A CLEARLY NON
DIURNAL TREND THERE MAY BE DENSE FOG CONTINUING TONIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 828 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

LOW LEVEL MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW IFR TO
VERY LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG. KMOT-KDIK-KBIS-
KJMS. KISN WILL REMAIN VFR THEN BECOME MVFR AFTER 15Z MONDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO 11
AM CST /10 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-004-010>012-018-019-021-
031>033-040-043.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ005-
013-020-022-023-025-034>037-041-042-044>048-050-051.

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

129 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CANCEL THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. CONTINUE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 828 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

LOW LEVEL MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW IFR TO
VERY LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG. KMOT-KDIK-KBIS-
KJMS. KISN WILL REMAIN VFR THEN BECOME MVFR AFTER 15Z MONDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ020-023-025-034>037-041-042-044>048-050-051.

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1045 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 828 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

335 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW)...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PRESENT JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS
THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 60S AND 70S. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS NOW PAST THE ARKLATEX REGION AND
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SHOWERS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WEST
TENNESSEE...THEREFORE...IT WILL TAKE QUITE A FEW HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION MAKES IT INTO EAST TENNESSEE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT 850 MB WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 50-
60 KT RANGE. DUE TO THIS...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
REACH CRITERIA BUT THE FOCUS IS MAINLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD
SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER..THE SYSTEM WILL BE LOSING SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET
WEAKENING AND LIFTING QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR THE
POPS...SLOWED THINGS DOWN SOME BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND
RADAR TRENDS. IT APPEARS THE BEST WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FROM 09-18Z (4AM-1PM EST MONDAY).

THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH MODELS
SHOWING PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.3-1.6 INCHES. THESE VALUES WOULD
BE NEAR THE MAXIMUM VALUES OBSERVED FOR MID-DECEMBER. THE GOOD NEWS
IS THEY ONLY EXIST BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE FAST MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY MOIST ADIABATIC WITH
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY. ALSO LOOKED AT THE SREF PROBABILITIES FOR
INSTABILITY AND THEY INDICATED ONLY AROUND A 10 % CHANGE FOR MORE
THAN 50 J/KG OF MUCAPE. WITH THIS SAID...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 0.25-0.75 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THERE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S. THERE ACTUALLY IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THE SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA. WILL NOT GO WITH ANY MENTIONABLE POPS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MIGHT BE CUTTING IT A BIT CLOSE FOR KTRI AREA. A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BARELY LOWERING THE
TEMPERATURES...BUT LOWERING THE DEW POINTS SOME BY TUESDAY. LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
FOCUS OF SREF MORE TO THE SOUTH...HAVE SHAVED POPS SLIGHTLY IN OUR
NWRN AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND FROM SMOKIES
NORTHWARDS NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO SETS UP...WITH BEST CHANCE
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED AND SHALLOW. HOWEVER...WITH
ORGANIZED LIFT AND DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE GETTING LOW IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...AS COLDER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN...DO THINK CHANCES OF
AT LEAST FLURRIES IN NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS. FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...LOOKS COLD AND DRY. LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW THAT THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER MONDAY...AND AIR MASS WILL BE
WARMING QUICKLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 62 45 65 / 80 90 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 63 46 62 / 30 90 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 59 62 46 63 / 30 90 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 64 46 60 / 20 80 10 10

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
/6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW
BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEE-
RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

MA/GM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1155 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/

UPDATE...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR TULSA OKLAHOMA. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW. THE LOW IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OCCLUDED. THIS WILL PINCH OFF A VERY WARM
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND KEEP IT WELL SOUTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. ALL
CURRENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THE REST OF THE DAY THUS WILL
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AT
THIS TIME BUT A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL PUSH IN THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS ARKANSAS.
CURRENTLY...PINE BLUFF IS SUSTAINED AT 28 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH. WEST MEMPHIS IS SUSTAINED AT 22 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP EAST OF THE MS RIVER AS
WELL...PARIS IS SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH AND
COLUMBUS MS IS SUSTAINED AT 26 WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 MPH.

KRM

DISCUSSION.... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO PUMP WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 60S AREA WIDE AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MORE THAN
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TO PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SEVERAL HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FELL YESTERDAY...AND WE MAY SEE MORE FALL TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 70S AGAIN. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO
EAST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT WE MAY SEE A FEW TREES TOPPLED BY STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS. HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 1MB
PER HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING AND BY
MIDDAY FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EAST
ARKANSAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNSET AND MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE/ALABAMA
BY MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
THREE QUARTERS AND 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST IN EAST
ARKANSAS.

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

MAINLY VFR AT KMKL/KTUP THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR
AT KMEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. KJBR SHOULD REMAIN MVFR
WITH OCNL LIGHT RAIN. GUSTY SE SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING WITH CONDS BECOMING MVFR
AND OCNL IFR IN HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MVFR CIGS
WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AT KMEM...KMKL AND
KJBR BUT KTUP SHOULD SCATTERED OUT MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BUT WILL BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN MONDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SJM

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
TUNICA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DYER-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1112 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE...

KRM

.DISCUSSION.... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO PUMP WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 60S AREA WIDE AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MORE THAN
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TO PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SEVERAL HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FELL YESTERDAY...AND WE MAY SEE MORE FALL TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 70S AGAIN. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO
EAST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT WE MAY SEE A FEW TREES TOPPLED BY STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS. HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 1MB
PER HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING AND BY
MIDDAY FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EAST
ARKANSAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNSET AND MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE/ALABAMA
BY MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
THREE QUARTERS AND 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST IN EAST
ARKANSAS.

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS

TVT

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
TUNICA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DYER-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.