Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/10/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

958 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARMTH THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND IS VARIABLE...SO TEMPERATURES ARE
BOUNCING UP AND DOWN WITH IT. REGARDLESS...LOWS GENERALLY HAVE
EITHER ALREADY OCCURRED OR SHOULD OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT...THEN EXPECT
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES WITH MORE PERSISTENT AND
THICKENING CLOUD COVER THEN.

LOWS OUTSIDE OF TWIN FORKS REMAIN A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

A WELL DEFINED MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BRIEFLY INCREASES AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES BY...BUT THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE IS QUITE DRY. BUFKIT PROFILES AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ADVECTING AN AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOW HAVE AFTER 6Z BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN
HI-RES MODELS - NOTE DO NOT BUY BLOOM HRRR AND NAM HAVE AHEAD OF
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH. SEE NO
EVIDENCE OF THIS ON RADAR...AND THIS IS AN OBSERVED BIAS OF BOTH
MODELS IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS IN THE PAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS RIDGING BRIEFLY
MOVES OVERHEAD BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THERE WILL STILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CONNECTICUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD WILL
SLOWLY ERODE DURING THE MORNING LEADING TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON.

WITH MORE SUNSHINE THEN ON WEDNESDAY IN COMBINATION WITH
WARMER AIR BEING TRANSPORTED NORTH VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW...UNSEASONABLE
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 50S. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT JFK AND ISP COULD BE TIED OR
BROKEN IF THE TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR SO MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST MAY INTERACT WITH A
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH TO CREATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND AND FAR
SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN
THE 40S...EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL H5 PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH JUST
SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE IMPACTING THE STRENGTH
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE DEEP SOUTH ON
SUN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MON AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
TUE. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BEAR WATCHING AS IT IS A FAIRLY
DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM ON TUE WITH DEEP MIXING...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
VELOCITY AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE SYSTEM. ITS A FAST MOVER SO JUST A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN WHICH
SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

PRIOR TO THIS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
ON FRI...WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TRACKING
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. THE BIGGER STORY IS THE BROAD RIDGE
THAT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING WARMTH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS
ARE FORECASTED TO REACH 60-65 ON SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPPER 60S IN THE METRO AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER. MODELS ARE FORECASTING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS STRATUS AROUND WHICH WOULD KEEP
THESE HIGHER TEMPS FROM OCCURRING.

ONCE THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT TEMPS WILL
DROP CONSIDERABLY...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUE AND WED.

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND PASS THROUGH ABOUND
DAYBREAK THU.

MVFR CIGS NW OF THE NYC METRO TERMINALS COULD LIFT TO VFR FOR A
TIME LATER THIS EVENING AT KHPN...THEN RETURN OVERNIGHT. FOG WITH
IFR VSBY EXPECTED FOR A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT AT KSWF. THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR UNTIL ABOUT
15Z...AND THE NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND TERMINALS COULD SEE A
BRIEF PD OF MVFR CONDS FOR AN HR OR TWO AROUND SUNRISE.

SE-S WINDS HAVE REMAINED STRONGER ALONG THE COAST LONGER THAN
EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT TO 5-10 KT.
WINDS WITH WARM FROPA SHOULD SW OR WNW AFTER DAYBREAK THU...THEN
BECOME S-SW LATE DAY THU.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LATE.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN.

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP SUB SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE OCEAN...WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE NO GREATER THAN 15 KT WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LOW PASSING TO THE WEST AND DEPARTING HIGH PRES TO
THE SE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES
AND EVEN A CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
MON NIGHT AND TUE. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE HWO.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DS/24
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/DS/24
HYDROLOGY...DS/24

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

1013 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COASTAL STORM WILL CLIP THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY
CONSEQUENTIAL RAIN WILL BE MONDAY WHEN A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE ...

A GREAT CLASSROOM EXAMPLE. STACKING LOW SETUP IN ITS INITIAL PHASE
AHEAD OF WHICH THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT IS UNDERGOING ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE 295-305K SURFACES THROUGH H8-5 ... A LAYER IN WHICH
PER 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING IS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. PARENT ENHANCED
ASCENT WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW ... SEEING A TIGHT ZONE OF
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION COINCIDENT WITH A THETA-E GRADIENT IN THE N/NE-
QUADRANT. SUBSEQUENT REGION OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE / FRONTOGENESIS
WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS BUT UP AGAINST DRIER AIR TO THE N ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO QUEBEC. HENCE THE REASON...A CLASH
OF TWO AIRMASSES... WHY PRECIPITATION RETURNS VIA WSR-88D RADAR
ARE NOT FURTHER N/W OF THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE I-95 CORRIDOR. ALSO
PER THE 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING ... A LOT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FOR
FALLING PRECIPITATION TO OVERCOME BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. ITS
WHAT MAKES THESE TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENTS THAT MAKES HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE SO USEFUL. A HEAVY WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE HRRR WITH A
CONSENSUS OF HIGH-RES NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE.

HIGHEST POPS FOR S-COASTAL RI AND MASS INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
WILL EXTEND CHANCE POPS UP TO THE TAUNTON AREA ALONG A SW-NE LINE.
MUCH OF THIS RAIN ONGOING NOW SHOULD CLEAR OUT TOWARDS AFTERNOON.
THE TIGHT GRADIENT OF A BOMBING LOW OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES NEARLY
STACKED AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N ... WILL SEE BREEZY NE-
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH TILL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION LATE ALLOWING WINDS TO
RELAX. IT IS ALSO DURING THIS TIME WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL W-E
EROSION OF CLOUDS ... ESPECIALLY AT MID-HIGH LEVELS. BUT AS FAR AS
LOW-CLOUDS ... A DRY-INVERSION REMAINING IN PLACE BENEATH WHICH
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. MAY HAVE TO AMEND LATER
FORECASTS AS TO HOW LONG A LOW-STRATUS DECK MAY LINGER. WOULD
EXPECT SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...

GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED ACROSS E MA/RI THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE FINALLY
MIXING DRIER AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ERODING THE LEFTOVER
LOW-LVL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS W MA AND CT
ARE EXPECTED AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE MOVES INTO UNDER THE INVERSION. SO LIKELY TO BE A
GRADIENT OF 2M TEMPS...COLDEST E UNDER CLEAR SKIES/WEAK FLOW...AND
WARMER UNDER THE CLOUD COVER TO THE W. MINS MAY DROP INTO THE 20S
E...BUT 30S TO THE W.

WEDNESDAY...

RIDGING AND HIGH PRES REMAIN IN CONTROL...BUT THE THE CORE OF THE
RIDGE TO THE E WILL ALLOW WARM ADVECTION UNDER RETURN FLOW ALONG
WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE. H92 TEMPS +2 TO +4C SHOULD BE
FULLY REALIZED...BUT SUSPECT MORE INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONT/SHORTWAVE. SO WILL LIMIT HIGHS MAINLY TO THE
MID-UPPER 40S ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
* LITTLE TO NO RAIN UNTIL BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

NEGATIVE PNA PATTERN CONTINUES WITH PERSISTENT LONG WAVE RIDGING
ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY TENDS TO SHEAR
OUT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MINIMAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH ONLY VERY BRIEF
INCURSIONS OF COOLER AIR MASSES. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISING TO WAY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 8C AND 10C. THIS COULD LEAD TO RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES IF
NOT TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONSEQUENTIAL RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE SUN NIGHT/MON TIME FRAME WHEN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS MAY END UP BEING A FAST MOVING OCCLUSION BUT TOO FAR OUT FOR
MUCH CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS.

DAY TO DAY...

WED NIGHT/THU...OPERATIONAL GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN 00Z RUNS ALL
SHOW DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA WED NIGHT AND
THU AM. LOOKS LIKE JUST ENOUGH AMPLITUDE/SHARPNESS TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA.
ANTICIPATE ANY QPF TO BE LIKELY NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF
THAT.

FRI...NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF SHEARS WELL NW OF AREA WITH ONLY
IMPACT ON AREA BEING IN FORM OF SOME CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES AT
850 MB GENERALLY 5C TO 7C...AND SHOULD SEE SURFACE MAX TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY MID TO UPPER 50S WHERE
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

SAT/SUN...LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD. CONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTIONS OF
BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO BETWEEN
8C AND 10C TO SET THE STAGE FOR NEAR OR RECORD WARMTH. FOR
NOW...WENT ABOVE A MODEL BLEND AND BROUGHT MAX TEMPERATURES TO UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 SAT AND IN SOME AREAS INTO THE LOWER 60S ON SUN. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE...THINK
WE COULD HAVE A SHOT OF MID TO UPPER 60S.

SUN NIGHT/MON...VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF AND APPARENT SURFACE
OCCLUSION BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ENOUGH FOR CHANCE OF RAIN.
FAIRLY GOOD MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE INCREASES CHANCE FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT THE
DURATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED.

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BKN-OVC MVFR AT OR ABOVE 2 KFT SLOWLY ERODES W-E. SPECIFICITY IN
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE TREND IS ANTICIPATED. CIGS MAY NOT
ERODE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. -RA HAMPERS FAR SE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS
THROUGH 20Z. NE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS INITIALLY WILL
DAMPEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...

FEEL MVFR CIGS AT OR ABOVE 2 KFT WILL LINGER THROUGH A MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY. NE-WINDS BREEZY
NOW WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...

MVFR CIGS MAY ERODE LATE TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON
TRENDS TO THE W. EXPECT A MIX OF SCT-BKN. N/NE-WINDS TURNING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG...BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

FRI THROUGH SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPED SEAS A LITTLE ACROSS SE STELLWAGEN BANK AND WATERS E OF CAPE
COD PER CURRENT TRENDS. NE FETCH WILL KEEP WATERS FAIRLY ROUGH FOR
MOST OF TODAY.

NNE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS ESPECIALLY. THIS CONTINUED FETCH OUT OF THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL YIELD SEAS 5-7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THEN DROP OFF TOWARD EARLY WED THANKS TO DIMINISHING
WINDS/SEAS.

SOME RAIN EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY...BEGINNING AFTER SUNSET THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING S FLOW WHICH MAY BRING 5 FT SEAS
TO OUTER COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY OFF E MA. WEAK FRONT CROSSES
REGION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM OFF
COAST BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RISK OF SOME 5 FOOTERS EAST OF CAPE ANN
DUE TO SW FETCH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.

FRI THROUGH SAT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ251.

SYNOPSIS...DOODY/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DOODY/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...DOODY/THOMPSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MELBOURNE FL

830 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...A MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE GULF TWD S
FL LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA TO INDUCE ANY LATE NIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS E
CENTRAL FL LATER TONIGHT. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES LOOK
TO BE ON THE WANE NEAR METRO ORLANDO AND VOLUSIA COUNTY THIS
EVENING WHICH THE HRRR MODEL ALSO DISSIPATES THROUGH 11 PM. 18Z
SHORT RANGE MODELS DO INDICATE SOME OF THE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC MAY DRIFT TOWARD THE E COAST LATE
TONIGHT SO WILL LIKELY HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT LIGHT SHOWER CHANCE
MAINLY ALONG CSTL SECTIONS AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS FROM THE CAPE
TO MARTIN COUNTY. CONSIDERABLE LOW TO MID LVL STRATOCU/AC DECK AND
SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT LOOK FOR
IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INTERIOR SECTIONS ON THU WITH
MORE SUN. WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTHERLY WITH ELONGATED SFC
HIGH FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE ERN GULF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NRN INTERIOR TO
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR THE TREASURE COAST.

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR WITH CIGS FROM 3-7 KFT OVERNIGHT. HAVE TEMPO
MVFR CIGS VRB VCNTY AND MAY ALSO AFFECT KFPR LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY
VFR CIGS THU MORNING BECOMING SCT NORTH OF KISM-KTIX LINE INTO THE
AFTN.

.MARINE...NUDGED SEAS UP A BIT FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS BASED ON BUOY
TRENDS AT 41114 AND JENSEN BEACH NEAR SHORE BUOY. OTHERWISE...LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED ON LATE EVENING CWF UPDATE. TONIGHT/THU...INVERTED
SFC TROUGH/WEAK LOW FROM FL STRAITS TO BAHAMAS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA INTO TOMORROW WITH WINDS OUT OF THE N/NE. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE TONIGHT BECOMING 4
FEET OR LESS OVER THE WATERS INTO THU.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 58 74 55 77 / 10 10 0 0
MCO 60 78 58 81 / 10 10 0 0
MLB 63 76 62 79 / 20 10 10 0
VRB 63 77 63 80 / 20 20 10 10
LEE 57 77 57 81 / 10 10 0 0
SFB 59 76 58 80 / 10 10 0 0
ORL 61 77 59 81 / 10 10 0 0
FPR 63 79 62 80 / 20 20 10 10

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

VOLKMER/SEDLOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

401 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CST

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WARMER CONDITIONS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA VIA THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THIS WRITING HAVE
WARMED NEAR 50 IN MY FAR SOUTH...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO PERSISTED ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH SOME AREAS
IN MY WEST HAVE SEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. OVERALL...MILD
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE OUR
ACTUAL NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 40S...WITH
SOME AREAS LIKELY EVEN GETTING INTO THE LOW 50S.

THERE IS A MINOR ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION...DUE TO A LACK OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS...OR DRIZZLE...ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS THIS WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DRIZZLE MAY BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE...IF
ANY OCCURS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AGAIN. NO CHANGES TO
POPS HAVE BEEN MADE...OTHER THEN TO SHIFT THEM INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. ANY RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND IT APPEARS THAT SKIES COULD BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.

KJB

.LONG TERM...
257 PM CST

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATE UPPER TROUGH...THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAST AND PROGRESSIVE...WITH LITTLE ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEAR ZONAL TO
START OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY SWLY. THE VARIOUS MODELS INDICATE A
STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE FURTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE
50S...WHICH IS ALMOST 20F HIGHER THAN THE SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE NORTH
TO SPREAD ANY PCPN SOUTH OF THE WISCONSIN BORDER. EVEN AS THE UPPER
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER SOME...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S. BY
FRIDAY...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS AND A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...WITH DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE
GFS/GEM MAINTAINING A PROGRESSIVE UPPER WAVE. HAVE TRENDED THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST CLOSER TOWARD THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT.
PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
CNTRL TX...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT.
RAIN SHOULD BECOME HEAVIER INVOF THE FRONT AND THERE IS A EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME TSRA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
INVOF THE SFC WAVES ALONG THE FRONT. IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...TO THE LOWER 60S
OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WILL NOT DROP OFF UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...BRING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KREIN

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...

* MARGINAL LLWS THIS EVENING.

* MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* MVFR VSBY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING WITH DRIZZLE.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

STRATUS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AND CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS IS STILL ON THE
LOWER SIDE. IN THE NEAR TERM...STRATUS IS BREAKING UP...BUT BY NO
MEANS IN A LINEAR FASHION. THIS WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING TO OBSERVE
VIA SATELLITE WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGH... BUT WE
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SUBTLE EROSION FROM THE WEST IN OBSERVATIONS.
EXPECT THAT FARTHER EAST THE STRATUS MAY REMAIN A BIT PESKY.

DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS WILL DIRECTLY RELATE TO
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. FOR AREAS THAT LIFT THE EVENING PERIOD
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET...AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT COOLING THIS EVENING. FOR AREAS THAT HAVE
CLOUDS THEY WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE EVENING. CURRENT TAFS HAVE A
SOUTH DIRECTION FOR SIMPLICITY...BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHERE A SSE WIND WILL BE
OBSERVED. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE MORE SE COMPONENT WILL
BE AWAY FROM THE MAIN CHICAGO TERMINALS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE
MENTION IN THE TAF AS THE IMPACT OF A 170 WIND IS MINIMAL...BUT IF
INDICATIONS OF MORE OF SE WIND APPEAR...WILL ADD THAT IN. LOW
LEVEL WINDS PICKUP SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
SUCH THAT SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT AT THIS
POINT LOOKS LIKE LITTLE DIRECTION SHEAR AND MARGINAL/BRIEF.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH. A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER SUGGEST NO
MORE THAN SPRINKLES INITIALLY...BUT LATER TONIGHT IF THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATION SUGGESTED BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MATERIALIZES...THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS THAT COULD LOWER VSBYS SOME.
SREF PROBABILITIES OF FOR IFR CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...AND
MVFR VERY HIGH...WHICH TEND TO SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MATERIALIZE...BUT
THE RAP IS STILL SUGGESTING A SCATTERED DECK OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE SIDED ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE GIVEN THE
SIGNAL IN THE NAM/SREF/LAMP/MOS GUIDANCE AND GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT THE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
FORECAST IS OF LOWERED CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
TEMPERED LOW LEVEL SATURATION FROM THE RAP/HRRR.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...

* LOW IN LLWS OCCURRING THIS EVENING.

* MEDIUM-HIGH IN LOW CIGS OCCURRING TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND HOW LOW THEY WILL BE.

* LOW IN HOW LOW VSBY WILL GET WITH DRIZZLE.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WIND.
THURSDAY...VFR. SW WIND.
FRIDAY...VFR. S WIND.
SATURDAY...CHC SHRA. IFR/MVFR. S WIND.
SUNDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA. IFR/MVFR. SW WIND.
MONDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR. W WIND.

BMD

.MARINE...
310 PM CST

A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY. THE FIRST LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN A
DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SETTING UP AN EXPENDED PERIOD OF SLY-SWLY FLOW OVER THE
LAKE...WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 25-30KT LIKELY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GALES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH END
OF THE LAKE AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS WHILE MOVING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND INTO SWRN ONTARIO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INCHES WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT
FOR THE WEEKEND.

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

309 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CST

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

KJB

.LONG TERM...
257 PM CST

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

KREIN

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* MARGINAL LLWS THIS EVENING.
* LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING IN DRIZZLE.

KMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

STRATUS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AND CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS IS STILL ON THE
LOWER SIDE. IN THE NEAR TERM...STRATUS IS BREAKING UP...BUT BY NO
MEANS IN A LINEAR FASHION. THIS WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING TO OBSERVE
VIA SATELLITE WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGUH... BUT WE CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME SUBTLE EROSION FROM THE WEST IN OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT
THAT FARTHER EAST THE STRATUS MAY REMAIN A BIT PESKY.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* LOW ON LLWS OCCURRENCE THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM IN CIG FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
* LOW ON VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND DRIZZLE.

KMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

BMD

.MARINE...
310 PM CST

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

201 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CST

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

KJB

.LONG TERM...
414 AM CST

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MOVING TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY EVENING. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...FOCUSING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BEST
DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT PASSES. MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES
QUICKLY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES OVERNIGHT IN LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AXIS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEST ON
FRIDAY WHERE A LON WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
DURING THE DAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS WITHIN THIS
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR-CORNERS REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES BROAD UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW RESULTS IN
INCREASING WARM/MOIST ASCENT INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND...WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW TAPPING GULF MOISTURE. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS EVOLVING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
DEW POINT TEMPS RISING INTO THE 50S AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.25"
NOTED IN GFS DEPICTIONS. MAY EVEN SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING
THE PERIOD WITH DEEP MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND DECENT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DEVELOPING WARM-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. SOME DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS WITH LONGER RANGE
MODELS...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WOULD TAPER OFF LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA AND PULLS AWAY OVER THE LAKES. COLD AIR INTRUSION BEHIND
THE SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF RAIN/SNOW OR WET SNOW LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THIS WOULD ONLY BE
AS EVENT WINDS DOWN.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S FRI-SAT-SUN...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW 60 DEGREE
READINGS SATURDAY IN OUR SOUTH COUNTIES. TURNING COLDER MONDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* MARGINAL LLWS THIS EVENING.
* LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING IN DRIZZLE.

KMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

STRATUS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AND CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS IS STILL ON THE
LOWER SIDE. IN THE NEAR TERM...STRATUS IS BREAKING UP...BUT BY NO
MEANS IN A LINEAR FASHION. THIS WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING TO OBSERVE
VIA SATELLITE WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGUH... BUT WE CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME SUBTLE EROSION FROM THE WEST IN OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT
THAT FARTHER EAST THE STRATUS MAY REMAIN A BIT PESKY.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* LOW ON LLWS OCCURRENCE THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM IN CIG FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
* LOW ON VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND DRIZZLE.

KMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

BMD

.MARINE...
243 AM CST

A SERIES OF LOWS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST LOW OVER MANITOBA THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT TO JAMES BAY TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE LAKE. MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO AROUND 25 KT
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL SWING TO THE WEST BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY...THEN
BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW.
THIS NEXT LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ARRIVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 30
KT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GALES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH END
OF THE LAKE. YET ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER TRACK AND STRENGTH DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

143 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CST

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

KJB

.LONG TERM...
414 AM CST

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* MVFR STRATUS FOR MDW THIS AFTERNOON.
* MARGINAL LLWS THIS EVENING.
* LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING IN DRIZZLE.

KMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

STRATUS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AND CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS IS STILL ON THE
LOWER SIDE. IN THE NEAR TERM...STRATUS IS BREAKING UP...BUT BY NO
MEANS IN A LINEAR FASHION. THIS WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING TO OBSERVE
VIA SATELLITE WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGUH... BUT WE CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME SUBTLE EROSION FROM THE WEST IN OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT
THAT FARTHER EAST THE STRATUS MAY REMAIN A BIT PESKY.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF MVFR LIFTING FOR MDW TODAY
* LOW ON LLWS OCCURRENCE THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM IN CIG FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
* LOW ON VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND DRIZZLE.

KMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

BMD

.MARINE...
243 AM CST

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1210 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...
357 AM CST

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FEATURES IN NEAR TERM FORECAST ARE SCOURING OUT LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TODAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT WINDS...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS
WAS RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS...WITH IMPROVED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN BETTER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW CLOUDS WERE ALSO
ERODING FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING PER GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IR
IMAGERY...AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PULLING AWAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS
WERE ALREADY ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS TO OUR
WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID-
UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S IN A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF I-80 THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN AMPLIFYING AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT... WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE. MILD...MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY AGAIN SUPPORT SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT WHILE KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S. THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA BY EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF
INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IN WHAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

RATZER

.LONG TERM...
414 AM CST

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* MVFR STRATUS FOR MDW THIS AFTERNOON.
* MARGINAL LLWS THIS EVENING.
* LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING IN DRIZZLE.

KMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

STRATUS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AND CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS IS STILL ON THE
LOWER SIDE. IN THE NEAR TERM...STRATUS IS BREAKING UP...BUT BY NO
MEANS IN A LINEAR FASHION. THIS WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING TO OBSERVE
VIA SATELLITE WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGUH... BUT WE CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME SUBTLE EROSION FROM THE WEST IN OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT
THAT FARTHER EAST THE STRATUS MAY REMAIN A BIT PESKY.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF MVFR LIFTING FOR MDW TODAY
* LOW ON LLWS OCCURRENCE THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM IN CIG FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
* LOW ON VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND DRIZZLE.

KMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

BMD

.MARINE...
243 AM CST

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1144 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

A fast moving shortwave low pressure trough currently crossing the
northern Plains will promote increased southerly winds 10-15 mph
today along with clearing of low clouds and fog. Nevertheless, high
cloud cover and periods of mid-level cloud cover associated with
the feature will spread eastward into central IL today, keeping
cloud cover prevalent today...especially areas from around I-72
northward. Any chance for precipitation with the approaching wave
should hold off until this evening and overnight. Current
forecast is on track with these features for today...and no
significant updates needed this morning.

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

Southerly winds have increased just enough overnight to keep the
widespread dense fog away from the area, at least for now. However,
the last few runs of the HRRR suggests a period of lower
visibilities and low clouds lifting north out of southern Illinois
and affecting areas roughly along and east of Interstate 55 this
morning. The fog and stratus are forecast to gradually shift to our
east by late morning as boundary layer winds increase out of the
south and southwest. However, once we lose the lower clouds, some
mid and high level cloud cover will increase ahead of the next
weather system pushing across the Rockies early this morning.

Satellite data clearly showing the next shortwave trof to affect our
area later today over central Wyoming. This feature is forecast to
race east and bring some mid and high level clouds into our area
during the day along with some very mild temperatures this
afternoon, especially over the west and southwest counties. RUC
forecast soundings indicate a few locations over southwest Illinois
may approach 60 degrees this afternoon as a gusty south to southwest
wind develops over the area ahead of the upper wave. Further east
where low clouds may hang in a bit longer, afternoon temperatures
will not be as mild but still average well above normal as readings
top out near the 50 degree mark. As the shortwave moves across the
area late this afternoon and into this evening, forecast soundings
suggest little in the way of deep moisture in place to support much
more than sprinkles just to our west by late this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

Fast-moving shortwave is progged to sharpen as it crosses the
Mississippi Valley this evening, and should be centered over the
middle of Illinois by sunrise Wednesday. Not a lot of moisture
with this system, so slight chance PoP`s around 20% still look
good.

This system will quickly shift east, and temperatures will steadily
climb, with some lower 60s making an appearance over the southwest
CWA as early as Thursday. A more pronounced plume of warm air will
advect into the area late this week as a broad upper trough deepens
west of the Rockies. The ECMWF has 850 mb temperatures as warm as
12C by Sunday morning, with the GFS a bit cooler at 9C. The
differences are due to the placement of an upper low that is
expected to develop within the trough. The two models are starting
to come into agreement with the general concept of this occurring,
but not in the placement of the low (ECMWF slower and further
south). Right now, highest temperatures are expected on Saturday
with widespread low-mid 60s. ECMWF solution could require this to
extend into Sunday in some areas, although its wetter solution would
hold down temperatures a bit as well.

Have maintained the mention of isolated thunder over the forecast
area Saturday night into Sunday, with a strong low level jet and a
couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE progged to move through the area.
Precipitable water values around 1.3 inches are anomalously high for
mid-December, but heavier rain falling over the course of a couple
days should help keep things in check. Kept the likely PoP`s going
for Saturday night and extended them into Sunday as well, although
if the slower ECMWF solution continues to persist, they may need to
be added into parts of the area for Sunday night as well.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

VFR conditions across central IL terminals this afternoon as drier
southerly flow develops ahead of an approaching low pressure
system. Low pressure system will bring a possibility of a few
light rain showers overnight...but also a return of low level
moisture which could produce IFR-MVFR visibilities/ceilings in
fog/stratus. Winds veering to westerly behind the system should
clear out fog/stratus by late morning Wednesday. Winds S 10-15 kts
shifting to W 7-12 kts by 16Z Wednesday.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1026 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

IFR with local VLIFR in fog and stratus, especially along and east
of KSPI to KBMI thru 16z, then VFR cigs are expected this
afternoon into early this evening. The next weather system and
frontal boundary were well out to our west this morning but the
low level wind flow ahead of the disturbance has helped keep the
fog from becoming too widespread, except in southeast IL. The
main threat for fog and low clouds will be along and east of
I-55 this morning, and then as the weather system approaches our
area later this afternoon, mid and high cloud cover will increase
along with southerly winds. The last to see the stratus and fog
depart will be CMI late this morning. Confidence begins to lower
tonight as the weak frontal boundary pushes across the area with
wind fields expected to decrease just ahead of the weak front.
Question becomes whether that will be enough to bring a period
of fog and low clouds back into the area after 03z. For now, will
bring some MVFR vsbys in fog back after 02z. Surface winds will
remain southerly this period at 10 to 15 kts.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

522 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

243 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

Light, patchy fog will still be possible at all TAF sites
overnight with lowest vis being at BMI and CMI. Since not thinking
it will be dominate, will just have it as a TEMPO group. However,
3-4sm will be likely at all sites. Lower stratus clouds below 1kft
will likely continue at CMI during the overnight hours, but then
improve during the late morning or around afternoon. High cirrus
also spreading over the sites and then during the late morning,
cigs will likely drop some to around 20kft from 25kft overnight.
This level of cigs/clouds will continue into the evening hours but
then expecting AC to begin to move into the area at 12kft after
3z. Winds will remain southerly through the period and then
increase to above 10kts tomorrow into tomorrow evening.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

318 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF INDIANA WILL DRIFT AWAY THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...AND BRING SMALL
RAIN CHANCES AS IT PASSES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THEN.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER
40S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUD QUICKLY BURNING OFF WHILE
MID CLOUD WAS STREAMING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARD INDIANA. A
POORLY ORGANIZED COLD FRONT WAS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD AND ILL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. NATIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW SOME
RETURNS ACROSS IOWA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AS THE SHORT WAVE
WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS. GFS AND NAM
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION THOUGH THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. GIVEN
RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...THIS APPEARS PRETTY REASONABLE. MODELS
ARE FAILING TO SHOW STRONG FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT AND BEST
TIMING REALLY PUTS THAT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDING CONCUR
THAT A THIN AREA OF LOWER LEVEL SATURATION SHOULD BE PRESENT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GOING BACK TO FORCING...295K GFS
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWING POOR ALIGNMENT FOR LIFT....HOWEVER THE
SYSTEM ALOFT APPEARS RATHER DYNAMIC. FURTHERMORE THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THUS SUMMING UP...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND SUSPECT FORCING IN PLACE WILL TREND TOWARD A
SLIGHT CHC POP...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WILL ALSO TREND POPS HIGHER ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA GIVEN THE MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE THERE.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

MODEL RETURN TO THE QUICK ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUSLY
DEPARTING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH SOME LOW CHC POPS MAY BE NEEDED DURING
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT AND SHORT
WAVE EXITS...MAINLY THE THEME OF THE DAY WILL BE A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT BY AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...NEGATING
MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTERNOON AND TREND TOWARD THE COOLER 3 HOURLY MAVMOS HIGHS IN
CASE OF SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST. MODEL SUGGEST A QUICK
MOVING SHORT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES RETAINS CONTROL OF THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUD SKIES THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD...TRENDING LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND STICKING CLOSE TO MAVMOS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

MODELS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE WEEKEND AND ON AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND AS A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT...ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS OUR
REGION MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH
SUNDAY AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES
BUT ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. THE GFS NOW
MOVES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...THE GEMNH LATE SUNDAY AND
THE EURO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE.

THE MAIN ISSUES WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTHWEST
HALF SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A PRETTY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH WINDS COULD BE A PROBLEM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

RAISED SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY MINIMUMS THROUGH
SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO OTHER PERIODS.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 08/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 316 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILINGS FOG BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS NEAR THE EAST COAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WEATHER
DEPICTION INDICATES MOSTLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PRECLUDE STRATUS UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT.

IN CONTRAST THE NAM/GFS INDICATES A GREATER AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE RUC MODEL PRECLUDES THIS. WILL COMPROMISE
AND BRING IN AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. WILL GO WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING TO 15 HUNDRED TO 2 THOUSAND FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT WEST TOWARDS END OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 8 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST
AROUND 8 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/TDUD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

250 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

RAISED SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY MINIMUMS THROUGH
SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO OTHER PERIODS.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 081800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILINGS FOG BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 8 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST
AROUND 8 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BRINGING A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY. UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALSO DURING THIS TIME
A WARM FRONT GETS STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF THE FRONT DIFFER IN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS..BUT
LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE TO LIKELY RAIN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. AGAIN TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES ARE PROVIDING SOME
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING OUT ANY THUNDER INCLUSION. AT THIS TIME TRIED
TO CAPTURE AN AVERAGE SOLUTION OF ANY INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MODELS
HAVE THE SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING OUT BUT MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR RAIN
WHILE THE UPPER LOW IS STILL MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD
DROP BACK INTO THE 40S IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 081800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILINGS FOG BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 8 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST
AROUND 8 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1212 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH. THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARMER BUT MUCH
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL.

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 952 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. IR IMAGES SHOW HIGH CLOUD
EXITING INDIANA...WITH MORE CLOUDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY PUSHING EASTWARD. FOG CONTINUED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE IN REACHING THE
GROUND.

LIMITED HEATING AND THE LOW SUN ANGLE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A
SLOW BURN OFF OF THE FOG ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
LINGERING CLOUDS...TRENDED HIGHS JUST A DEGREE A TWO COOLER THIS
AFTERNOON. TIME HEIGHT`S CONCUR...KEEPING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUS OVERALL...WILL EXPECT A FEW PEEKS
OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS FOG SLOWLY BURNS OFF AND AS HIGH
CLOUD ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON SMALL PRECIP CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS QUICKLY THROUGH THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...POTENTIAL FOR LOWER STRATUS AT TIMES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON DAYTIME TEMPS.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...HIGHLIGHTED BY FAST MOVING WEAK
UPPER WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. FIRST OF THESE FEATURES SET
TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...LIFTING NORTHEAST TO NEAR
JAMES BAY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK
OF THE FORCING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE SURFACE LOW AND REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA.

AXIS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST NOTABLY IN THE 285-290K LEVEL...WILL
COINCIDE WITH STRONGER FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE
LIMITED FORCING ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT TO SERVE AS THE PRIMARY
CATALYSTS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OVER WESTERN
COUNTIES THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL FORCING ALOFT...REALLY
HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL IMMEDIATELY MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL ISSUES FROM LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. IN ADDITION TO THE
UPPER RIDGING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SHALLOW
INVERSION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...THINK ANY STRATUS/FOG WOULD BREAK UP BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING AS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT
EXPECTED FROM STRONGER UPPER WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN TRY TO HINT AT
REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SHALLOW INVERSION...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AS
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD KEEP SOME LEVEL OF MIXING
PRESENT.

TEMPS...LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LIKELY TO HAVE IMPACTS ON HIGH
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. GENERALLY TRENDED BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS
BOTH DAYS AND ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS GUIDANCE APPEARS
TO AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMTH. LEANED TOWARDS COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT THEN TOOK A BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. MILD
DECEMBER WEATHER CONTINUES.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 081800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILINGS FOG BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 8 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST
AROUND 8 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

338 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FRO THE WEEST. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM AS HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE THE
CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES PASSING WELL SE OF THE AREA W/THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED W/IT STARING TO PULL OUT OF THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREA. FURTHER N AND W, SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED SOME CLOUDS AROUND AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSE PASSES BY TO THE N
DESPITE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE. DOWNEAST AND THE COAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT W/HIGH PRES PULLING E. THOSE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL SLOWLY ERODE THIS EVENING, BUT
MORE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SET UP LATER TONIGHT AS A LIGHT ESE
FLOW SETS UP ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO GET TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. THE HRRR DOING WELL W/CURRENT SETUP AND SHOWED THE LLVL
MOISTURE SETTING UP OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL VARY OVERNIGHT DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUDS. THIS
WILL MAKE IT FOR A TOUGHT FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO W/UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/THE COLDEST TEMPS
IN THE LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR RIVER VALLEYS. STAYED W/MID-UPPER
20S DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SOME
OF THE LOW LYING AREAS IN THIS REGION COULD GO COLDER DEPENDING ON
LONGEVITY OF THE CLEARING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE RIVER VALLEYS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ERODE WEDNESDAY MORNING W/THE
WEAK SE FLOW IN PLACE. DIRUNAL EFFECTS SHOULD AID IN ALLOWING FOR
THE CLOUD DECK TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE SOME W/SUNSHINE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW AND RAIN AS WARM
ADVECTION/OVERUNNING TAKE PLACE. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL AND CONFIND TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN. ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WITH
SOME SNOW MIXED IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVLEOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT ACROSS
THE STATE FRI EVENING. A FEW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION,
THOUGH BY THE 00Z SAT MUCH OF THE PRECIP MAY BE OVER FAR ERN & NRN
MAINE, DEPARTING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. AN
UPR RIDGE AND WEAK SFC HIGH THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING
FOR CLEARING SAT INTO AT LEAST SUN AM.

BEYOND THEN, MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WOULD AGREE ON SOME MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
THEY HAVE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SHOWS ONE VERY
POTENT SFC LOW DRIVEN BY A DEEP UPR TROF MOVING INTO ERN CANADA
AND PUSHING A STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE STATE ON MON. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD BRING ABUNDANT RAINFALL LATE SUN NIGHT THRU MON AFTERNOON,
SWITCHING TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGERING INTO TUE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT, SHOWING ONE LOW
DRIVEN BY A JET STREAK CROSSING THE CWA MON, AND A SECOND LOW
DRIVEN BY AN UPR TROF OR CUT-OFF MOVING ACROSS ON TUE. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN RATHER VARIABLE RUN-TO- RUN, WHILE THE GFS HAS
BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT. GIVEN THIS, AND THE FACT THAT THE
CANADIAN APPEARS CLOSER TO THE GFS, ANY EDITS MADE SUN THRU TUE
WERE SKEWED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR ESPECIALLY FOR KCAR TO KFVE EARLY
TONIGHT. A LLVL DECK(MVFR) COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LIGHT ESE FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS DECK
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP E OF THE BGR AND BHB TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES INTO WEDNESDAY. 10-15 KT SUSTAINED WINDS
OUT THERE ATTM. EARLIER REPORTS OF GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S FOR
THE OUTER ZONES. SEAS WERE 3-4FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.
EXPECTING WINDS TO DROP OFF TONIGHT AND REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS ON
WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND DROPPING BACK TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR WINDS. A
SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
THURSDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FEET/7 SECONDS.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

139 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT FROM EARLY THINKING. THE ONLY
MODIFICATIONS WAS TO BRING HRLY TEMPS IN LINE W/CURRENT
CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL READINGS.

SFC RIDGE AXIS WL DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN THRU THE NEAR TERM.
ONLY INTEREST OF NOTE WILL BE CLD CVR WITH HIGH CLDS STREAMING
INTO DOWNEAST AS A RESULT OF SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM
WL TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DUE TO 1028MB HIGH ACRS
THE CWA.

CLDS WL ULTIMATELY HV THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON MAXES FOR TDA. CDFNT
HAS MVD OFFSHORE WITH HIGH BUILDING IN FM THE WEST. EXPECT TEMPS
WL BE CLDR THAN YDA BUT STILL RMN ABV NORMAL. GNRLY L/M 30S FOR
NRN AREAS WITH ARND 40 FOR SRN ZONES.

FOR TONIGHT H5 RIDGE WL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO S/WV APPCHG LATE
TONIGHT. WV IS CURRENTLY IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND WL RIDE NORTHEAST.
EXPECT WV WL DAMPEN OUT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLD CVR EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. RIDGING ALOFT
OFTEN KEEPS STRATUS CLOUDS SETTLED IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. STRATUS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE AND WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING JUST BELOW FREEZING IN
MOST AREAS, SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, THE TROUGH
WILL COME THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS BECOMING ALL RAIN SHOWERS AS WARMER AIR IS PULLED
NORTHWARD.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE BUT WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTING TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED ON FRIDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME
SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS
THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE LOW LIFTING TO OUR NORTHWEST COMBINED WITH
RIDGING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS
THE RIDGING PUSHES UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST. MILD WEATHER WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER. ANOTHER LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
LIKELY PERPETUATE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLY COMING THROUGH WITH AN OCCLUSION LATE MONDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED INTO TUE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY IN LOW STRATUS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN VARIABLE LOW
STRATUS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT MAY IMPROVE TO
VFR DOWNEAST LATE FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY DOWNEAST WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 945 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED WINDS UPWARD A BIT OVER THE
OUTER ZONES AS LATEST OBS SHOWED GUSTS CLOSING IN ON 25 KTS.
LATEST LOOK AT THE NAM12 AND RAP SHOW THIS TO SHORT LIVED THIS
MORNING. NO HEADLINE EXPECTED ATTM.

OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY FOR WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 25 KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA
FOR THE WEEKEND. A GALE MAY THEN BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
OCCLUSION CROSSES THE WATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...HEWITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

955 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING LARGE CLOUD SHIELD EDGE N INTO CENTRAL
AND DOWN FROM THE STORM MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLC. MOST OF THIS IS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUDS ACROSS THE N AND W HAVE BROKEN UP SOME
ALLOWING FOR MORE SUN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A NICE CLEARING
SLOT OVER THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH
PRES SITTING OVER THIS AREA ALLOWING FOR THE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD THIS MORNING. CURRENT MAX TEMPS
STILL LOOK GOOD.

FOR TONIGHT H5 RIDGE WL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO S/WV APPCHG LATE
TONIGHT. WV IS CURRENTLY IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND WL RIDE NORTHEAST.
EXPECT WV WL DAMPEN OUT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLD CVR EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED INTO TUE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

615 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO TEMPS THIS MRNG AS AREAS THAT ARE CLR HV
DROPPED LOWER THAN EXPECTED. EXPECT LOW CLDS TO CONTINUE TO BE AN
ISSUE FOR TDA WITH ERN HALF OF FA CLR WHILE WRN AREAS CONT TO BE
AFFECTED BY STRATUS. LATEST BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WL LIKELY HOLD OVR NRN AND WESTERN ZONES INTO EARLY AFTN BFR
BCMG MIXED OUT. THIS WL LKLY BE JUST IN TIME FOR MID-CLDS TO MV IN
AHD OF NEXT WV AFFECTING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WL CONTINUE WITH
PSUNNY WORDING FOR WRN AREAS TDA AS IT APPEARS THAT STRATUS DECK
IS NOW GRADUALLY ERODING FM THE EAST. THIS OF COURSE WL HV IMPACT
ON TEMPS FOR TDA AND EXPECT NRN AND WRN AREAS TO STRUGGLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE M30S THIS AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

SKIES HV CLRD ACRS NE ZONES THIS MRNG. STRATUS CONTS TO PLAGUE
CNTRL SXNS OF CWA AND NW ZONES. LATEST 00Z MODELS INDICATING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WL TRY TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF TO SOME EXTENT
THIS AFTN AS TEMPS JUST ABV 900MB WARM. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WL BE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION. RAP, HRRR AND SOME SREF
MEMBERS SHOWING LITTLE MOISTURE RMNS WHILE NAM IS VERY MOIST, WHICH
TENDS TO BE ITS USUAL BIAS. THUS HV GONE PSUNNY ACRS THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT H5 RIDGE WL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO S/WV APPCHG LATE
TONIGHT. WV IS CURRENTLY IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND WL RIDE NORTHEAST.
EXPECT WV WL DAMPEN OUT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLD CVR EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED INTO TUE NIGHT.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH
TUE NIGHT.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

214 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WL DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN THRU THE NEAR TERM.
ONLY INTEREST OF NOTE WILL BE CLD CVR WITH HIGH CLDS STREAMING
INTO DOWNEAST AS A RESULT OF SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM
WL TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DUE TO 1028MB HIGH ACRS
THE CWA.

FOR TONIGHT H5 RIDGE WL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO S/WV APPCHG LATE
TONIGHT. WV IS CURRENTLY IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND WL RIDE NORTHEAST.
EXPECT WV WL DAMPEN OUT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLD CVR EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED INTO TUE NIGHT.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH
TUE NIGHT.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1223 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1220 AM UPDATE...
SKIES HV CLRD ACRS NERN ZONES TONIGHT. HV UPDATED T/TD GRIDS TO
CURRENT OBS AND IF SKIES RMN CLR FOR TOO LONG MAY NEED TO LOWER
MINS, BUT THINK THAT A FEW PASSING CLDS MAY KEEP TEMPS IN LINE
WITH FCST LOWS. NO CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS UPDATE.

920 PM...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE MAINE COAST
LATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH. A CLOUD DECK WITH CEILINGS AROUND 4K FT
AGL HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE UPPER PENOBSCOT VALLEY AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY. IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE MUCH
MORE PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER, SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM
ACROSS THE BANGOR AND DOWNEAST REGION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING WITH SOME
BREAKS IN HE CLOUDS LIKELY TO EXPAND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE
00Z KCAR SOUNDING DID SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 4 K FT
AGL WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE CURRENT CEILINGS ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST OF THE UPDATES WERE CENTERED ON THE CLOUD COVER BASED
ON THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS, ALTHOUGH IF NORTHERN
AREAS DO CLEAR OUT IT COULD GET A LITTLE COLDER THAN FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS. MRMS AND CANADIAN RADAR FROM QUEBEC SHOWED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHERN MAINE. KFVE REPORTED
A MIX RAIN/SNOW W/THE FROPA. TEMPS HAVE MAXED OUT WILL DROP AS
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE
SHOWED A BAND OF PRECIP DROPPING SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING W/THE FRONT. NOT MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP IF ANY AT ALL
W/THE BAND. THE BAND OF PRECIP IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT DROPS
SE THIS EVENING. WX ELEMENT WILL BE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. NNW WINDS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES QUICKLY BUILDS E BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS WELL STATED BY THE MIDNIGHT CREW, THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGES WILL BE THE EXTENT OF THE RADIATION INVERSION AS SHOWN
BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WHETHER CLOUDS WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHALLENGE W/THE TEMP
FORECAST. CLEARING SKIES COULD READINGS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
TEENS FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. A WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
WOULD KEEP TEMPS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ATTM, DECIDED TO
USE A CONSENSUS OF THE CONSRAW GUIDANCE AND SHOWED AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LEANED W/UPPER TEENS AND LOWERS 20S NORTH
AND WEST AND MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A LEAST PARTLY SUNNY DAY BUT COOLER W/HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W. THINKING HERE IS THAT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
TAKES PLACE IN THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH. SHOWERS ARE THEN
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. FOR TEMPERATURES
WILL USE THE BIAS CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGH AND THE CONSENSUS RAW
FOR LOWS BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE EARLY SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST MONDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING MAINLY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. THE WIND WILL RANGE FROM 10-15
KTS SUSTAINED W/GUSTS TO 20 KTS. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE
OUTER ZONES. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-4 INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS.
FOR WAVES: OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE WILL DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY. A
SOUTHERLY FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVES MAY APPROACH SCA
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

.CLIMATE...
THE FALL CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WAS PREPARED TODAY. PLEASE CHECK IT OUT ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON
THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR, PWMCLMCAR, OR CXUS51
KCAR.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/HEWITT/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1235 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A ZONAL SPLIT FLOW
OF PACIFIC AIR OVER SRN CANADA/THE CONUS. A FAIRLY STRONG SRN BRANCH
SHRTWV IS MOVING THRU THE LOWER LKS TO THE S OF A NRN BRANCH
DISTURBANCE TRACKING THRU NRN ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY. SINCE UPR MI IS
BTWN THESE TWO SHRTWVS/THE MORE PRONOUNCED ACCOMPANYING FORCING AND
LOCAL 00Z RAOBS SHOW VERY DRY MID LVLS...NO SGNFT PCPN IS OCCURRING
OVER UPR MI DESPITE 12HR H5 HGT FALLS THAT WL AT LEAST APRCH 100M.
BUT ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR ADVECTED INTO THE UPR LKS BY STEADY SSW WIND
AND TRAPPED BLO INVRN BTWN ABOUT H925-875 HAS RESULTED IN EXTENSIVE
LO CLD COVER. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DRIZZLE/FOG WITHIN THIS LLVL MSTR
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL...BUT STEADY NEAR SFC WINDS THAT HAVE
RESULTED IN A BIT OF AN INVERTED V NEAR SFC T/TD PROFILE ON THE GRB
RAOB HAS LIMITED VSBY RESTRICTION AT THE REPORTING SITES. TEMPS ARE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL THE REPORTING SITES AT
08Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A TRAILING SHRTWV RDG IS PUSHING INTO MN.
BUT ANOTHER QUICK MOVING PAIR OF SHRTWVS ARE MOVING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLDS/FOG/DRIZZLE THRU
THIS MRNG. POPS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWVS NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ARE THE CHALLENGE FOR TNGT.

TODAY...LARGE SCALE DNVA/QVECTOR DVGC ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING
SHRTWV RDG WL DOMINATE TODAY. SINCE FCST SDNGS SHOW SUBSIDENCE INVRN
LOWERING/STRENGTHENING THRU THE DAY...EXPECT MRNG DRIZZLE OVER
MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND E TO DIMINISH AND END OVER THE E IN THE AFTN.
ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK DIURNAL HEATING WL TEND TO DIMINISH ANY FOG...
CONCERNED THERE COULD BE MORE COVERAGE OF THE FOG THIS MRNG AS LLVL
WINDS ARE FCST TO DIMINISH UNDER SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT.
WITH THE LOWERING INVRN AND DOWNSLOPE S WIND...EXPECT THE LO CLDS TO
AT LEAST PARTIALLY BREAK UP IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP W OF
MARQUETTE DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN TRENDS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WL
TEND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FM THESE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHERE NAM FCST H95 RH INDICATES THE LO
CLDS WL PERSIST UNDER THE INVRN.

TNGT...DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWVS IS FCST
TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA AND BRING SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SATURATION TO
CAUSE AT LEAST SCT-NMRS SHOWERS. MOST OF THE MODEL FCST SDNGS
INDICATE THE LLVLS WL BE WARM ENUF FOR ALL RA DESPITE SOME DYNAMIC/
EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THE INITIALLY DRY MID LVLS THAT IS FCST TO
LOWER H85 TEMPS NEAR 0C. THIS PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE W LATE
WITH PASSAGE OF DEEP FORCING TO THE E. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME FOG
DEVELOPING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTENING FM THE PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COMING THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND EJECTS A COUPLE WAVES TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THERE WILL BE TWO WEST-EAST WAVES AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
WEEK...THE FIRST OCCURRING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND A
SECOND...STRONGER WAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. IN BOTH
CASES...EXPECT PRIMARILY RAIN TO OCCUR...BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
COLD AIR WRAPPING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SECOND WAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO LOWER WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS TO LEAD TO SOME
SNOW OVER THE WESTERN U.P.. THAT COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE FIRST
WAVE...BUT THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY BE DONE BY THE TIME
THAT HAPPENS. QPF AMOUNTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 0.15IN...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE SECOND EVENT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THINK THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF (OVER A QUARTER INCH OF
QPF POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR).

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT PUTS THE
REGION IN THE RIGHT LOCATION FOR A POSSIBLE STRONGER STORM MOVING
THROUGH SOMETIME IN THE 5-10 DAY TIME FRAME. WITH THE FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE...SOME COLD AIR DOES TRY TO FILTER INTO THE
CWA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...SO THAT DOES CREATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IF A SYSTEM OCCURS. THE 12Z RUNS LOOK TO
TRACK THE HEAVIEST QPF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT IT IS
STILL 6 PLUS DAYS OUT AND WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO ADJUST AND
LOOK AT ANY POTENTIAL SYSTEMS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KSAW WITH
UPSLOPE S WIND DRAWING MSTR UNDER LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN.
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMES IN AT KSAW LATE WED MORNING WHICH WILL START
AQUICK IMPROVEMENT TREND THERE. AT CMX AND IWD...THE DOWNSLOPE
NATURE OF THIS FLOW WL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT WL BE
BRIEF AS AN APRCHG DISTURBANCE BRINGS A RETURN OF MORE MSTR AND SOME
-SHRA THAT WL FURTHER MOISTEN THE LLVLS. SO EXPECT CONDITIONS AT ALL
3 SITES TO DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNGT. IWD WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BY LATE WED MORNING WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AGAIN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 25-30 KNOT WIND
GUSTS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY 25 KNOT
WINDS IS EXPECTED THU INTO THU NIGHT OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

625 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLDS/FOG/DRIZZLE THRU
THIS MRNG. POPS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWVS NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ARE THE CHALLENGE FOR TNGT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY AT SAW WITH UPSLOPE
S WIND DRAWING MSTR UNDER LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN. AT CMX AND
IWD...THE DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THIS FLOW WL LEAD TO VFR OR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR AT CMX/IWD. EVEN AT SAW...THERE WL BE A PERIOD
THIS EVNG WHEN THE INVRN LOWERS SUFFICIENTLY TO BREAK UP THE LO
CLDS. BUT ANY IMPROVEMENT WL BE BRIEF AS AN APRCHG DISTURBANCE
BRINGS A RETURN OF MORE MSTR AND SOME -SHRA THAT WL FURTHER MOISTEN
THE LLVLS. SO EXPECT CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES TO DETERIORATE TO
IFR/LIFR OVERNGT IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

402 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLDS/FOG/DRIZZLE THRU
THIS MRNG. POPS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWVS NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ARE THE CHALLENGE FOR TNGT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUSTAIN MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES INTO TUE MORNING. SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE TUE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY TO
MID TUE AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOIST CONDITIONS AND THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS BY LATE TUE EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

338 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDED INTO WRN MN
FROM LOW PRES OVER SRN MANITOBA. ALTHOUGH RADARS SHOWED SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER NRN INTO CNTRL WI...NO SFC REPORTS OF PCPN WERE NOTED.
VIS SATELLITE INDICATED MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
OVER THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER MOST OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA.
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WEST HALF...DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW HAS
HELPED SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT WITH CONTINUED SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF MOISTURE
BENEATH THE STRONG 875 MB INVERSION (12Z KGRB SOUNDING) THAT THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND THICKEN WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.
ALTHOUGH 850-500 MB QVECTOR CONV AND 280K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED...THE 850-700 MB DRY LAYER WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICE NUCLEI FROM REACHING THE LOWER MOIST LAYER.
SO...WILL MENTION DZ/FZDZ SPREADING WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER
03Z...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. ADDITIONAL MOISTENING
WITH THE FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ALSO FAVOR GREATER DZ
POTENTIAL OVER THE ERN CWA. CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WITH LESS/NO PCPN/FOG.

TUESDAY...ANY LINGERING DZ/FZDZ IN THE MORNING OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN CWA IS EXPECTED TO DEPART BY 15Z. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER WITH WEAK SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LACK OF ANY DRY ADVECTION.
THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

309 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DENSE FOG REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT PRESS
TIME...BUT LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER WAVE/TROUGH
TRACKING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROBABLY
BE ABLE TO EXERT ENOUGH INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE TO DISLODGE THE
DENSE FOG. WHEN EVIDENCE/OBSERVATIONS RESPOND ACCORDINGLY WILL
MOSTLY LIKELY DROP ADVISORY EARLY. ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF M-59...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT PRODUCES
ADDITIONAL SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS...EXTENDING TO THE 925 MB
LEVEL. OTHERWISE...SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 925
MB LEVEL WILL MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE IRISH HILLS/CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
LOWER MICHIGAN...IN LINE WITH LATEST HRRR...WHICH SHOULD HELP ASSURE
MAXES TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

STRONGER UPPER WAVE/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING
WILL BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET USHERING IN BETTER MOISTURE...AS PW VALUES RISE TO THREE
QUARTERS OF INCH...850 MB DEW PTS UP TO 3 C (PER NAM/EURO)...WITH
SURFACE DEW PTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 40S. WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/SATURATION (925-850 MB)...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...LIKELY GOING TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES DURING
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE
RAINFALL TO INCREASE POPS BY MUCH. DRY SLOT LOOKS TO BE OVERTAKING
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IF SURFACE
WINDS DECOUPLE...FOG MAY REDEVELOP WITH WARM ADVECTION/STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL INVERSION AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY.

YET ANOTHER PACIFIC UPPER WAVE TO TRACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THURSDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF 500 MB LOW/MAX HEIGHT FALL
FIELD MOVING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING. WITH HEIGHT
FALLS DROPPING OFF TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER AND
SUBSEQUENT LACK OF FORCING...THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS LOW (SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE)...DESPITE THIS SYSTEM
HAVING COMPARABLE TO SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE TO WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM.

STRONG BUCKLE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO CLOSED 500 MB LOW
DEVELOPING OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA/SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BE WIDE OPEN (20 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO)...WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
INTO THE MIDWEST/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...SUPPORTED BY BOTH 00Z EURO AND GFS...ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE
MEAN....PRESENTING THE LIKELY HOOD OF RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS NEAR RECORD 850 MB DEW PTS OF 8 TO 9 C
POTENTIALLY SLIDES THROUGH THE CWA.

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...STRONGEST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. WINDS LOOK
TO BE A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...15 TO 25 KNOTS...AS A
SERIES OF LOWS TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THOSE LOWS
WILL ALSO BRING WITH THEM A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1152 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

EXTENSIVE DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS EVENT EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. LITTLE EVIDENCE UPSTREAM TO SUGGEST A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVEMENT OF VISIBILITY DURING THIS TIME.
UNCERTAINTY STILL LIES IN TIMING THE END POINT OF THE 1/4-1/2SM VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...IMPROVEMENT TIED TO ONSET TIMING OF A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT. PREFERENCE STILL LIES WITH THE HRRR MODEL
VISIBILITY OUTPUT...POINTING TO A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR VISIBILITY
TO IMPROVE AFTER 13Z-14Z. STEADY PROGRESSION TOWARD IFR/LOW MVFR
STRATUS THEREAFTER AS GREATER DIURNAL MIXING AND ENSUING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW TAKES HOLD.

FOR DTW...LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO CURRENT DENSE FOG CONDITION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...VISIBILITY HOLDING AT 1/4 TO
1/2SM DURING THIS TIME WHILE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT MAY
WORK TOWARD LIFTING VISIBILITY 10Z-13Z...GREATER POTENTIAL EXISTS
BEYOND 13Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLOWER RESPONSE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN VSBY/CIGS AOB 1/2SM AND/OR 200 FT TONIGHT...LOW TUESDAY
MORNING.

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MEDIUM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ444.

DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1232 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1152 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

.AVIATION...

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN VSBY/CIGS AOB 1/2SM AND/OR 200 FT TONIGHT...LOW TUESDAY
MORNING.

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MEDIUM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 639 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

UPDATE...

ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE FOG EVENT ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY EARLY THIS EVENING...
A RAPID RESPONSE TO SIMPLY A HINT OF NEAR SURFACE COOLING. ADVISORY
ALREADY IN PLACE FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR.
PRIMARY QUESTION FOR THIS CORRIDOR REMAINS DEFINING THE EXACT END
POINT FOR THIS DENSE FOG...RELIANCE SEEMINGLY MOST TIED TO ONSET
TIMING OF A STRONGER SOUTHERLY GRADIENT. LEANING HEAVILY ON RECENT
HRRR MODEL VISIBILITY OUTPUT...WHICH HAS PERFORMED REASONABLY WELL
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...A MORE PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK
IS FAVORED WITH GREATER PROSPECTS FOR DENSE FOG TO PERSIST RIGHT
INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS. WITH THAT SAID...ELECTED TO
HIGHLIGHT A LONG DURATION DENSE FOG EVENT WITH A HEADLINE END
POINT SET AT 16Z TUESDAY MORNING...THUS AFFORDING THE OVERNIGHT
CREW SOME FLEXIBILITY TO END THE HEADLINE SOONER SHOULD THE
EMERGING GRADIENT STIR THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER UP A TOUCH SOONER.

SOME PERPETUATION OF A WEAK SOUTHERLY GRADIENT MAINTAINING MORE OF
A STRATUS CANOPY ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND HRRR OUTPUT CAST MORE DOUBT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
TO EMERGE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...AND WILL AWAIT A MORE
DEFINITIVE DOWNWARD MOVE IN VISIBILITY BEFORE CONSIDERING A
HEADLINE HERE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 341 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE TODAY AS FAR AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS GO
WITH SOME LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE GLACIAL RIDGE ACTUALLY CLEARING
OUT. THE STRONG INVERSION AGAIN SET THE AREA UP TO DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING AS WINDS REMAINED CALM AND SKIES CLEAR. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER COMES BACK INTO
THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERALL PRESENTS
SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MORE
PROMINENT TROUGHING AND RIDGING BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND FOR AWHILE AND AREAS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY CLEAR WILL SEE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED AND ONGOING
LOW VISIBILITIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
THIS EVENING. DENSE FOG WILL STICK AROUND BEFORE LIFTING TO A LOW
STRATUS DECK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
STARTS TO INCREASE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN
WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TUESDAY MORNING...PRECIP IS
NOT EXPECTED GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE AND FORCING. BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS THE AREA REMAINS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

A TEMPERATURE WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE CWA STARTING
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WERE A
CHALLENGE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF THE CWA CLEARING OUT EARLY AND
OVERACHIEVING. CONCERN IS HOW SOON THIS AREA WILL FILL IN WITH
CLOUDS AND BANKING ON CLOUDS FILLING IN SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.
GOING FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
THAT WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS DO NOT FILL IN
AS EXPECTED THEN LOWS COULD DROP EVEN MORE. FROM TOMORROW ON TEMPS
THEN REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP US DRY FOR THURSDAY BEFORE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF
I-69...THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TRACK.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN CWA WITH ONLY
ABOUT A 20-25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-69. A VERY BRIEF
DRY SPELL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT THINKING
THOUGH IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE SYSTEM...DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE PUTTING IN ANYTHING MORE THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO START OFF AS RAIN AND END
WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW. KEPT PRECIP AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW UNTIL THE
TRACK BECOMES A LITTLE BIT MORE CERTAIN.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
AFFECT LAKE HURON...TOPPING OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED AROUND 25 KNOTS HOWEVER AS THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LAKE SURFACE. WINDS LOOK TO DECREASE
BEHIND THE TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
DISCUSSION...SS/RK
MARINE.......HLO

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

343 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

GOOD PV ANOMALY WITH DRYING NOTED IN WATER VAPOR HAS HELPED FORCE
A NICE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI TODAY. NORTH OF
THE PV BOOT...THE COMBINATION OF FGEN IN THE H85-H7 LAYER AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K SFC HAVE PROVIDED THE FORCING FOR THE
BAND OF RAIN WE SEE OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS HAD A
PRETTY GOOD HANDEL ON THIS RAIN...SO FOLLOWED IT FOR SHIPPING THIS
BAND OF RAIN OUT OF THE EAST END OF THE MPX CWA BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z.

THIS WILL LIKELY BE IT FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP...THOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC THROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN MN MOVE THROUGH.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE LOOKS TO LACK DEEP MOISTURE LIKE THE LEAD WAVE
HAS...SO CONCENTRATED ANY MENTIONABLE POPS ON THE ERN WAVE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MAIN PLAYER TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS WILL BE THE NARROW
STRIP OF CLEARING THAT IS STRADDLING THE WRN DAKOTAS BORDER. THIS
CLEARING WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MPX AREA
TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLEARING ARRIVES AND HOW LONG IT
PERSISTS...COULD EASILY SEE LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT
WE CURRENTLY HAVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THERE WILL ALSO
BE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP FOG/LOW STRATUS. HOWEVER...WITH SFC
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP IN THE 4-8KT RANGE BEHIND THE
TROUGH...LIKELY MEANS OUR MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WOULD BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOW STRATUS AS OPPOSED TO FOG. THE HRRR
DEVELOPS LOW STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER ERN MN/WRN WI...WHICH
GIVEN THE CURRENT RAIN WOULD MAKE THE MOST SENSE FOR SEEING
STRATUS/FOG IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE IT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT ALSO THE RETURN OF VERY MILD AIR FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE FROM THE SW...WHICH
IS A FAVORABLE WARMING DIRECTION. AS A RESULT...BOOSTED HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES DOWNSTREAM OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE...WHERE WE ARE NOW
ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 40 WITH THE REMNANT SNOWPACK OVER CENTRAL MN AND MID/UPPER
40S ELSEWHERE...THOUGH THIS COULD BE WARMER OUTSIDE OF THE REMNANT
SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE DURING THE LONG
TERM. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS TO WATCH WILL BE TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE EURO WHICH CONTINUES TO TRACK ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BE
DRY...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
STORM TRACK. REDUCED POPS SOME...BUT MAINTAINED AT LEAST SOME
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. HIGHEST POPS ARE CONFINED
TO CENTRAL MN WHERE HIGH CHC OR LOW END LIKELIES CONTINUE. TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TRACK...THE DRY SLOT SHOULD HELP CLEAR THE CLOUDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN MN AND WRN WI. STRONGEST CAA WILL
LAG BEHIND THE SYSTEM...AND IT COULD GET RATHER MILD DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF SUN. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER 50S ACROSS SRN MN AND
INTO WRN WI. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...PARTICULARLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES WITH EITHER STRONGER CAA ALOFT...OR HEATING WITH
SUN.

THE DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
ENERGY WILL BEGIN EJECTING OUT IN PIECES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
LEADING WAVE ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY. THIS MAY BRING A SMALL CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IT
WOULD NEED TO PRODUCE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SATURDAY.
THERE ARE REALLY ONLY TWO LIKELY SCENARIOS THAT WILL PLAY OUT. THE
FIRST ONE IS A PHASED SYSTEM WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT RESULTS
IN A ROBUST SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
BRING A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT NORTHWARD...WITH A MATURE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY SUNDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SUCH A TRACK IS A LIKELY HEAVY SNOW PRODUCER
FOR US. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF ITS ENSEMBLES...THE
CANADIAN...AND THE FORMER RUNS OF THE ECMWF INDICATED THIS AS A
FAVORED OPTION. THE OTHER SCENARIO IS WHAT THE NEW ECMWF HAS
REVERTED TO AND FEATURES THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM WHICH RESULTS IN A LESS DEVELOPED...SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN CYCLONE AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION FOR US. AT THIS
POINT EITHER SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE...BUT PREFER THE FIRST SOLUTION
WHICH HAD STRONG SUPPORT OVERNIGHT. WILL AWAIT FOR FUTURE RUNS TO
DETERMINE ANY MEANINGFUL TREND.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEM IS ANOTHER ORIGINATING FROM
THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT
BEEN THE BEST WITH THIS ONE...LIKELY DUE TO ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH
ITS PREDECESSOR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE MOVING OUT OF SRN MN AND ACROSS WRN
WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE HRRR TO
TIME THIS THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE RAIN...BUT THERE ARE GROWING CONCERNS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THE NAM IS LIKELY
OVERDONE ON ITS DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS/RAP DO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL. THERE ARE TWO ISSUES THOUGH FOR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. ONE...WNW WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UP IN THE
5-10KT RANGE IN THE WAKE OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MN RIGHT
NOW. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A LARGE AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH BEHIND THE -RA...SO WHEN/IF SKIES CLEAR WILL
PLAY INTO THIS AS WELL. REALLY CAN NOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL AT ANY FIELD...THOUGH ERN MN/WRN WI LOOK TO HAVE THE
GREATEST THREAT THANKS TO THIS AFTERNOONS RAIN.

KMSP...RADAR RETURNS TO THE SW STARTED TO PRODUCE PRECIP REPORTS
AT THE SFC AS WELL IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO DID BRING IN
SOME PREVAILING -RA TO START. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SUB-VFR CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE RAIN THOUGH. THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF RIGHT NOW...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO START
WEDNESDAY OFF WITH SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG AND THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WIND W AT 10G20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS ESE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1209 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING. A WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WAS POTENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHTNING
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING. THE MOST VIGOROUS PORTION
OF THE WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT A SECONDARY VORT WILL TRACK FROM
NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN WI WHICH WILL BE OUR MAIN PLAYER.
THERE ARE A FEW ECHOS ON RADAR NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. THINK WE WILL SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR HERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SRN/ERN MN AND WRN WI WITH PERHAPS A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN.

OTHERWISE...A BIT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
CLOUDS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MILD AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ARE POSSIBLE IF THE SUN PERSISTS INTO THE LATE
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES
TRAVERSING THE AREA. THEN FOCUS TURNS TO POTENTIAL STORM
DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND SOME SUNSHINE AT LEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY...SHOULD
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 40S...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST A GOOD
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PORTION OF THE AREA.
THE MODELS DIVERGE SOME ON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE
TROUGH...WITH MOST MODELS TRENDING TO A DEEPER SOLUTION. WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS...BUT MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP FURTHER
IN FUTURE FORECASTS. IT APPEARS MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OF THE LIQUID VARIETY...WITH PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW TURNING TO WET
SNOW BEFORE ENDING SCENARIO OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE TROUGH DEVELOPS DEEPER
HOWEVER. AT THE MOMENT WE HAVE SOME ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE
HALF INCH OVER MAINLY NORTH OF I94 CORRIDOR IN MN AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 8 IN WESTERN WI.

THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW DIGGING THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH ENERGY DEEP INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EJECTING IT
RAPIDLY AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVES ASHORE ON THE WEST
COAST IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TEXAS OKLAHOMA REGION SATURDAY AND LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE
TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. ONE OF THE 00Z CIPS ANALOGS
AT 120 HRS WAS INDICATING THE OCT 31 1991 HALLOWEEN
BLIZZARD...WHICH HAPPENED TO BE AN EL NINO WINTER AS WELL. THIS
IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND DETAILS COULD CHANGE. THE 18Z 12.7 CFS
CONTROL WAS RENDERING A SPLIT FLOW TAKING THE ENERGY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM AT
THE MOMENT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WIND W AT 10G20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS ESE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

357 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

FORECAST TODAY TO BE CONTROLLED BY A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE FROM
ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER SOUTH DAKOTA EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE PAST COUPLE DAYS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
INCONSITENT AND VARYING FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THIS STORM...BUT THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN BETTER THIS
MORNING AND HAVE USED MAINLY THESE FOR THE FORECAST TODAY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SOME SLEET OR SNOW THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE COMING TO AN END LATE TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AS WELL BASED ON THE
SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S.

WEDNESDAY TO BE QUIET AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN UP INTO CANADA...BUT SHOULD SPREAD
PLENY OF CLOUD COVER INTO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE DAY. THIS TO
KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ONCE AGAIN...DESPITE
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RAMPS UP LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS.
THERE LOOKS TO BE THREE DISTINCT PERIODS WITH A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN ENDING AS
SNOW...A LONG PERIOD FOR A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN NEXT TUES/WED/THURS WHEN A MORE POTENT
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE
GENERAL TEMPERATURE TREND...BUT LOW IN THE SPECIFICS REGARDING
PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND FRIDAY.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INTENSIFYING AND DIVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY. AN
ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS
TO WHERE THE LOW ULTIMATELY DEVELOPS AND WHERE THE BEST LARGE-SCALE
LIFT WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TRACK FOR THIS LOW WILL BE TO
EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.

FOR THE WEEKEND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT BASIN...THIS TIME A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NORTHERN KANSAS AND THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER FRIDAY MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH MODELS PAINTING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS IN TERMS
OF STRENGTH...TIMING...AND LOCATION. THUS...LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL PREVAIL UNTIL GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. WHILE THIS IS ONGOING THE MORE NOTABLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE
FEATURE WILL BE A VERY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. AT THIS POINT IT WOULD APPEAR THE
JET STREAM WOULD FAVOR THE MAIN STORM TRACK TO BE TOO FAR EAST TO
RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE NORTHLAND AS THE TROUGH EJECTS
INTO GREAT PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT TROUGH AXIS THAT MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST COULD
HAVE A STORM TRACK FURTHER WEST WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM BY MID-WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...AND
THIS IS TECHNICALLY OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...THIS
SET-UP COULD PRODUCE ONE OF THE STRONGER STORMS SO FAR THIS SEASON.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
WILL LEAD TO OVERCAST SKIES AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...WITH ONLY WEAK
FORCING NEEDED TO INITIALLY BEGIN PRECIP AS LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY
FREEZING RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS LATE WED NIGHT. BULK OF THE PRECIP
FALLS THURSDAY DURING THE DAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO
MAINLY PLAIN RAIN. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A FASTER EXIT OF THIS
SYSTEM WHICH COULD MEAN A MORE LIMITED WINDOW OF TIME FOR SNOW...BUT
THINKING IN THE COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
THE IRON RANGE/MN ARROWHEAD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD WITH A LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT
FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD END THIS EVENT WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE...BUT THINK THIS POSSIBILITY IS VERY LIMITED. LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 30S WED NIGHT...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
THURSDAY...THEN DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE
FOR A SHORT TIME BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY...WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 30S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
AT LEAST SOME INFLUENCE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. GFS IS A BIT
FURTHER WEST THAN THE ECMWF WHILE THE CANADIAN PAINTS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW
IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY SNOW...WITH THE
LOW PULLING DOWN COLDER CANADIAN AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST NO
MATTER THE EXACT TRACK. HIGHS LOW/MID 30S SUNDAY...THEN MID 20S TO
LOW 30S OR POSSIBLY COLDER FOR MONDAY. LOWS MID 20S TO LOW 30S
SAT/SUN NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MVFR WITH SOME POCKETS
OF IFR CEILINGS COVERED FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AS OF LATE EVENING. THE RAP CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MUCH OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME LOWER STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE OFF.
THAT IS THE GENERAL TREND WE FOLLOWED OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR/RAP ARE
NOT AS WIDESPREAD WITH LOW VSBYS OVERNIGHT AND WE HAVE YET TO SEE
THEM DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT SOME LIFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN HAS DIMINISHED.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NAM INDICATES LITTLE QPF
WHERE THE GFS...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
QPF. WE HAVE VCSH AT KBRD...AND BRING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO
KHYR. MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 29 39 34 / 10 10 0 30
INL 39 25 38 32 / 0 0 10 50
BRD 40 26 40 34 / 10 10 0 20
HYR 40 28 40 34 / 30 40 0 10
ASX 43 31 42 35 / 20 30 0 30

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ140.

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1145 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

AT 330 PM...SKIES RANGED FROM MOSTLY SUNNY IN PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 40S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
AND EAST CENTRAL MN...TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALSO LINGERED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...AS WELL
AS IN PORTIONS OF PRICE COUNTY.

THE FOCUS OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. WHILE THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP SOMEWHAT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT...WE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL PROBABLY
FORM FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT. ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRIZZLE OR EVENTUALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE FEEL THE BEST
CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE ACROSS NW WI. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY TO THE ARROWHEAD...BUT FELT THIS WAS A GOOD
STARTING POINT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

THE CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY ON TUESDAY...BUT
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE DAY WEARS
ON. THE RAIN WILL BE THE RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

A WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING... BUT WILL FALL NOCTURNALLY AND WITH CAA ON THE
BACKSIDE... EXPECTING A RAIN/SLEET MIX ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN... WITH NOTHING TO SPEAK OF
IN THE WAY OF WINTER ACCUMULATION. BRIEF SFC RIDGING RETURNS
WEDNESDAY... BRINGING A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON... AND PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SLEET NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AROUND OR JUST BEFORE SUNSET. MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST ORGANIZES.
DURING THIS TIME... MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF KEEPS
SFC TEMPS JUST AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING... BUT FCST SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM INDICATE A ROBUST WARM NOSE OF 5C TO 10C ALOFT WHICH WILL
PREVENT ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER RAIN/SLEET
MIX... WITH POSSIBLE OCCASIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON THE
SURFACE TEMPS.

THURSDAY... LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA BECOMES DEEPLY LAYERED
AND GAINS SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROF AS THE CENTER OF IT MOVES EAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CLOUD SHIELD/PRECIP SPREAD WILL BE A BIT LOPSIDED WITH MUCH OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH AND ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. WITH SFC TEMPS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... STILL
EXPECTING RAIN TO BE PRESENT... BUT THE CAA WILL CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO LOSE ITS WARM NOSE. THEREFORE... WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURS AFTERNOON MAINLY JUST ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA... WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR SO
NORTHWEST OF THE IRON RANGE AND NORTH OF BRAINERD. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT FURTHER
EAST FROM DULUTH TO HAYWARD ACROSS NW WISCONSIN.

IN THE EXTENDED... TEMPS FINALLY TREND TOWARD COOLER TOWARD
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A ROBUST STORM SYSTEM
THAT MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND...
BUT THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE WILDLY ON THE STORM TRACK BY SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES... SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 42 29 38 / 0 20 30 0
INL 27 41 26 38 / 0 10 10 20
BRD 26 41 26 41 / 0 30 20 0
HYR 28 42 28 41 / 10 40 40 0
ASX 30 44 31 42 / 10 30 40 0

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140.

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1127 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1014 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

Patchy fog is beginning to develop in areas along and east of the
Mississippi River. Visibility guidance from the RAP and the HRRR
still suggests that areas of dense fog will be possible over
south central Illinois after midnight. Have increased cloud cover
as scattered-broken cirrus is streaming over the area in the fast
zonal flow aloft. Rest of the forecast looks in good shape.

Britt

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

Low clouds have finally cleared to the east of the MS River as
lower trop southwesterly flow increases. I expect this clearing
trend to continue through the remainder of the afternoon into the
early evening. The late clearing east of the river however will
set the stage for fog potential later tonight in IL. Although the
surface ridge has retreated, southerly flow across IL is expected
to be quite light with dew points in the upper 30s. This should
allow for radiational fog to develop by late evening and progress
overnight. The HRRR and SREF is highlighting dense fog potential
for SW/SC IL and at this time I will be mentioning areas of dense
fog into Tuesday morning. Otherwise there will be a couple of
batches of high clouds tonight and slightly greater southerly flow
to the west of the MS river, keeping temps a bit higher than last
night.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

As discussed yesterday, a mild week is on tap with above normal
temperatures and a series of fast-moving short waves impacting
portions of the area within progressive flow aloft. There will also
be bouts of clouds with the shortwaves which will assist
modulating temperatures. The strongest shortwave forecast this
week will amplify as it traverses the CWA on Tuesday night.
Veering south to southwesterly low level flow ahead of the wave
should lead to a nice warm-up on Tuesday. There appears to be
sufficient forcing/ascent and moistening to merit continuing with
slight chance pops on Tuesday night. The GFS is strongest with
this system and the most bullish guidance with precipitation,
albeit very light. We will see some cooling in the wake of this
system for Wednesday, but temperatures will still be a good 10-15
degs above average. The next more prominent short wave will track
to our north across the upper MS Valley on Thursday, and this will
result in good southwesterly low level flow with high temps 20 or
so degrees above average.

The very mild weather will continue through the end of the week
and into Saturday as a large scale pattern change evolves,
featuring the development of a deep and progressive long wave trof
over the western U.S. and its eventual eastward migration Sunday
into the first part of next week. There is considerable model
spread, both deterministic solutions and ensemble members, leading
to low confidence in forecast details. Prolonged low level
southerly flow will bring low level moisture back into the Mid MS
Valley ahead of a NE-SW oriented cold front, setting the stage for
an increased thunder threat. At this point there looks to be a
good chance of showers and thunderstorms somewhere centered on
Saturday night.

Glass

.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Winds have stayed up at KCOU therefore
fog/stratus looks less likely, and stratus has been removed from
the KCOU TAF. Fog/stratus is still possible at KUIN, especially
towards daybreak. Any fog/stratus which develops should lift and
mix out by mid-morning. Winds will turn southwesterly and increase
to around 12kts after 12-15z. Winds will turn westerly after the
passage of a surface trough near or just beyond the end of the
valid TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Fog/stratus is possible towards
daybreak. Any fog/stratus which develops should lift and mix out
by mid-morning. Winds will turn southwesterly and increase to
around 12kts after 12-15z. Winds will turn westerly near or just
beyond the end of the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1016 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1014 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

Britt

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

Glass

.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: VFR for the first 0-6 hours of the valid
TAF period. Fog and/or stratus is possible after 06z, especially
at KUIN. Light southerly to southeasterly winds will become
southwesterly after 12-15z and increase to around 12 kts.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR for the first 0-6 hours of the
valid TAF period. Fog and/or stratus is possible after 06z. Light
southerly to southeasterly winds will become southwesterly after
12-15z and increase to around 12 kts.

Kanofsky

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREAT FALLS MT

1045 PM MST MON DEC 7 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
FURTHER UPDATE AS OF 1020 PM...WINDS HAVE BEEN
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED THIS EVENING, AND FORECAST MODELS DO
NOT INDICATE THAT THEY WILL PICK UP AGAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED WINDS DOWN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING TIMING AS IS, BUT HAVE
UPDATED THE STATEMENT TO REFLECT THIS FORECAST ADJUSTMENT. COULSTON

UPDATE FORTHCOMING AFTER MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP GRIDS. RADAR RETURNS INDICATING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF GREAT FALLS. THIS AREA HAS BEEN FILLING IN AND
IS DEPICTED NICELY BY HRRR ANALYSIS. STRONG WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY
WEATHER ISSUE AND ONGOING HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUE. WIND SPEEDS
HAVE DROPPED OFF AGAIN THIS EVENING BUT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
INCREASE WINDS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET
IN BEAVERHEAD...MADISON AND GALLATIN COUNTIES. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES. TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD.

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 18Z AND BECOME GUSTY. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 240 PM MST MON DEC 7 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG AND CONTINUED VERY MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO GLACIER
PARK AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE PLAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS COMBINE WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING GUSTS SPRINGING UP
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT A TIME AS VARIOUS DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW
ALOFT PASS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. MPJ

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHORTWAVE
TROF EXITING OUR REGION AND HEADING INTO EASTERN MT/DAKOTAS BY
WED NIGHT. GOOD CHANCE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY THROUGH WED
EVENING BUT THEN SHOULD STEADILY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THUR
MORNING. ONCE THE RIDGE HEADS DOWNSTREAM ON THURS AFTN, A BROAD,
SLOW-MOVING PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THURS EVE UNTIL EARLY SAT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING BACK INTO THE 30S BY SAT. GIVEN THE FAIRLY
DIFFUSE MOISTURE PATTERN WITH THIS SYSTEM, MOST CENTRAL AND HI-LINE
COUNTIES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECEIVE MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE
OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST MT.
THE BROAD TROF HEADS INTO GREAT PLAINS ON SUN, ALLOWING FOR A
SECOND TRANSIENT RIDGE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE, BUT ANOTHER
MOIST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS CLOSE BEHIND, BRINGING A REPEAT OF THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MON. WARANAUSKAS

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 43 56 48 58 / 30 10 10 20
CTB 35 53 42 53 / 40 10 20 30
HLN 41 56 43 53 / 40 20 10 30
BZN 34 55 36 56 / 40 20 10 40
WEY 18 37 22 38 / 90 60 40 60
DLN 36 50 38 50 / 50 20 10 40
HVR 35 55 42 58 / 50 10 10 40
LWT 39 55 42 57 / 40 10 10 20

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR MTZ011>013-044>047-049>051-054.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR MTZ009-010-014-
048.

SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT
UNTIL 11 AM TUE.

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREAT FALLS MT

1020 PM MST MON DEC 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FURTHER UPDATE AS OF 1020 PM...WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LIGHTER THAN
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, AND FORECAST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THAT THEY
WILL PICK UP AGAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED
WINDS DOWN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA UNTIL THEN. WILL KEEP
THE HIGH WIND WARNING TIMING AS IS, BUT HAVE UPDATED THE STATEMENT
TO REFLECT THIS FORECAST ADJUSTMENT. COULSTON

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0015Z.
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO
70 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED AT TIMES.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 240 PM MST MON DEC 7 2015

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR MTZ011>013-044>047-049>051-054.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR MTZ009-010-014-
048.

SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT
UNTIL 11 AM TUE.

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREAT FALLS MT

912 PM MST MON DEC 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING AFTER MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP GRIDS. RADAR RETURNS INDICATING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF GREAT FALLS. THIS AREA HAS BEEN FILLING IN AND
IS DEPICTED NICELY BY HRRR ANALYSIS. STRONG WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY
WEATHER ISSUE AND ONGOING HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUE. WIND SPEEDS
HAVE DROPPED OFF AGAIN THIS EVENING BUT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
INCREASE WINDS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET
IN BEAVERHEAD...MADISON AND GALLATIN COUNTIES. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES. TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 240 PM MST MON DEC 7 2015

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR MTZ011>013-044>047-049>051-054.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR MTZ009-010-014-
048.

SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT
UNTIL 11 AM TUE.

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

731 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...

A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST WILL BACK AND
STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF 40-60M SYNOPTIC H5 FALLS. THE
RESULTANT WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH LIFT WITHIN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT JET MAXIMA WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
SHALLOW CONVECTION/SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE SC/NC COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASINGLY AGITATED
CUMULUS FIELD CURRENTLY OVER COASTAL CAROLINA EVIDENCE OF THE PRE-
CONVECTIVE INITIATION CURRENTLY UNDERWAY.

WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING WEST TO THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR AND EXITING THE EASTERN CORRIDOR ~06Z.

A GRADUAL WEST-EAST CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY ALLOW DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THU MORNING. HRRR AND RAP MODEL FIELDS ARE
NOT AS APPARENT AS LAST NIGHT AND AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO
MID/UPPER 40S EAST.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT...ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MAY SUPPORT PERIODS OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...AFTER MORNING FOG DISPERSES EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LOWS THU NIGHT
LOWER/MIDDLE 40S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD (THROUGH THE WEEKEND)... WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S... WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST. MEANWHILE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG/OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND DRY PERIOD
FOR CENTRAL NC... WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY TO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S DURING THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL... GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH... WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...
THOUGH HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE 60S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARM AGAIN...
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: COMPARING RADAR PRESENTATION AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT THE MODELS ARE OVERDONE WHEN
IT COMES TO PRECIPITATION. WHAT INITIALLY LOOKED LIKE DECENT RAIN
CHANCES FOR KFAY AND KRWI ARE NOW SPRINKLES TO LIGHT RAIN AT BEST
AND SHOULD BE ENDING BY 6Z AT THE LATEST FOR KRWI. ALL OTHER SITES
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE NEXT FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 6Z AND
DAYBREAK AND WHETHER OR NOT FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE PRESENT.
OBSERVATIONS AT ASOS SITES AND ON THE RADAR MAKE THE CASE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR FOG THEN IT WAS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
TRIAD AND AT KRDU. HAVE TAKEN OUT ANY PREVAILING FOG OR LOW STRATUS
AT THESE SITES AND REPLACED WITH A TEMPO GROUP FROM 8 TO 12Z. FOR
KFAY HAVE LEFT IN A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 6Z
WITH A TEMPO FOR LIFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS. IF THE SKIES CLEAR AT
KRWI IN TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WOULD BE HERE AND HAVE LEFT IT AS SUCH IN
THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

LOOKING AHEAD: CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH THE CHANCE FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SAT-SUN DECEMBER 12-13:

RALEIGH AREA... 12/12... 79 (2007) AND 12/13... 77 (1927).
GREENSBORO AREA... 12/12... 77 (2007) AND 12/13... 76 (1927).
FAYETTEVILLE AREA... 12/12... 81 (1931) AND 12/13... 81 (1927).

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...BADGETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

600 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...THE LAST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS HAS
DISSIPATED OVER 99 PERCENT OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A VERY DRY PROFILE EXCEPT FOR MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
1000 FEET AND ONCE AGAIN FOG/STRATUS FORMING OVERNIGHT. THE
OPERATIONAL HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING VISIBILITIES CRASHING TO LESS THAN
1/2 MILE FIRST IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
INLAND TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...H5 SHORT WAVE WILL REACH THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN LIFT TOWARD THE NC/VA
BORDER LATE WED NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER
AND PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS PRIMARILY FOR LBT/ILM
ZONES LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE INTO THU AS ANOTHER WEAKER H5 TROUGH AXIS
MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND FEATURES WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THUS CONTINUED DRY FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS WELL WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LACKING.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FRIDAY THRU EARLY SUNDAY. FLAT UPPER FLOW WILL START
THE LONG TERM. BY LATE FRI INTO SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
COMMENCE AND EXTEND ACROSS THE FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS RIDGE WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY SAT INTO SUN AND EXTEND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS UPPER AMPLIFICATION IS A
RESULT OF A DEEP SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LOW. BY LATE SUN THRU MON...
MODELS BECOME QUITE DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH RESPECT TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SOUTHWEST U.S. LOW TO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE EUROPEAN HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH THIS OCCURRENCE...WHEREAS THE
GFS NEARLY KEEPS THIS AN OPEN UPPER S/W TROF. THIS WOULD EXPLAIN
WHY ITS MUCH QUICKER THAN THE EUROPEAN.

AT THE SFC...THE FA WILL REMAIN UNDER CONTROL OF A SFC HIGH
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST FROM FRI THRU EARLY
SUNDAY. INITIALLY...THE HIGH WILL BE WEAK AT 1ST BUT WILL GAIN
STRENGTH AS THE UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT NO CHANCE FOR PCPN FRI THRU EARLY SUN. BY
LATE SUN...ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE APPARENT AS THE CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL GO WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES
ALOFT FOR LATE SUN THRU MON...THE SFC REFLECTION FOR EACH MODEL
WILL BE DIFFERENT. GFS PUSHES A MODEST COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA
MON MORNING WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH SLOWER...LATE MON OR EARLY
TUE. NEVERTHELESS...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVBL TO
WARRANT CHANCE POPS. WILL NOT GO HIGHER UNTIL MODELS SETTLE WITH
THEIR DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW...WITH THE WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NEAR CALM...THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO POOL QUITE NICELY. THINK
THE FOG WILL BE THE MOST DENSE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...POSSIBLY
GOING BELOW 1/2SM. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY A STRATOCU CEILING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...SEAS ARE RANGING 2 TO 3 FEET FOR MOST WATERS
EXCEPT FOR SOME 4 FOOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF AMZ252 NEAR
FRYING PAN. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH 5 TO 10 KT OFFSHORE AND
SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 TO
3 FEET.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WILL PREVAIL AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OFF THE COAST. THE
WEAK RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE 10 KT
WINDS WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE
2-3 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST DOWN TO 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...SFC HIGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. THE SFC HIGH WILL GET STRONGER WITH TIME BUT ITS CENTER
WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE AREA WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THUS...THE SFC PG WILL REMAIN RELAXED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THRU
THIS PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 10 KT THRU THE PERIOD. THE PLACEMENT
OF THE SFC RIDGING FROM THE HIGHS CENTER THE KEY FOR WIND DIRECTIONS
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. AT THIS POINT....WILL STICK WITH A SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION INITIALLY...BECOMING SOUTH THRUOUT BY LATE SAT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BASICALLY RUN AROUND 2 FT...WITH AN OCCASIONAL 3 FOOTER
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. ENE-ESE
GROUND SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WATERS WITH PERIODS AT 8 TO 10
SECONDS.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

332 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
INLAND TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/POSSIBLE MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CIGS
AND FOG BURNING OFF. THOUGH WILL NOTE SOME LINGERING FEW/SCT LOW
CIGS CONTINUE INLAND ATTM. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY...THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THIS WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED INLAND WITH THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS. GIVEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE...HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO GOING FORECAST AND HAVE
VFR PREVAILING. LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ANTICIPATE FOG TO REDEVELOP. WHILE LIFR IS POSSIBLE INLAND
...OVERALL EXPECT MVFR ALONG THE COAST AND IFR INLAND. ON
WEDNESDAY...ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL DISSIPATE BY MORNING...GIVING
WAY TO VFR. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

308 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT...THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM TUESDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE...A CARRY-OVER FROM TODAY...IS THE CONTINUED
EVOLUTION OF THE SLOWLY ERODING/SHRINKING AREA OF STRATUS(LEFT-OVER
FROM THIS MORNING`S DENSE FOG)OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS BOTH SUGGEST
A RAPID RETURN TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00

TO 06Z...WITH EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS/FOG LAYER INLAND INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WEAK SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

WILL BEEF UP CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT COULD BE A RATHER
EXTENSIVE STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT AND WILL INTRODUCE FOG ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF(PERSISTENCE). LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REACH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH WITH LITTLE CONTINUITY IN
SHOWING LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BROAD AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASING DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM US 1 EASTWARD BETWEEN 18Z WED TO 06Z THURSDAY.

HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FAR NW TO MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM TUESDAY...

BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THESE
HEIGHT RISES WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. THE
GRADUAL RISE OF LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT A DEGREE OR
TWO INCREASE IN WARMTH EACH DAY...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO SHOW A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH 40S
INITIALLY...THEN MODERATING INTO THE 50S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL COME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS THE ECMWF IS A GOOD 24 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS IN ORDER TO
BETTER TIME THE PRECIP. REGARDLESS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
RECENTLY...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...
WITH JUST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY (OR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY). BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE TEMPERED
SOME (COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS) ON MONDAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN...WITH LOW TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED. THEN UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RETURN
TO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE IFR
STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IS SLOWLY ERODING/SHRINKING ALONG THE
OUTER EDGES. KFAY AND KRWI COULD SEE A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ~20-21Z.

HRRR AND RAP MODEL DATA SUGGEST WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP/EXPAND AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE EAST. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
BETWEEN 15-18Z.

LOOKING AHEAD: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE COULD SUNDAY NIGHT COULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY
MORNING.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

120 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY...THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...THEN TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM TUESDAY...

WILL ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT NOON TODAY. AREA
WEATHER/TRAFFIC CAMS...METARS AND SATELLITE SHOW FOG LIFTING TO A
STRATUS DECK WITH THE STRATUS DECK ERODING ON THE EDGES. THE
NORTHERN EDGE IS CLOSE TO A LOUISBURG TO TARBORO LINE AS OF 1115
AM...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE FROM LOUISBURG TO FORT BRAGG. HIGH-RES
MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS TIL ABOUT 1PM IN THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN RWI-FAY...BUT THINK BY THEN THE SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE WESTERN
CWA...BUMPED HIGHS TO AROUND 60.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM MID MORNING...

CLEARED THREE MORE COUNTIES FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. FOG SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING WITH VIS
SATELLITE AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING FOG PREVALENT MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1 OUT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. SHOULD SEE VISIBILITIES START
TO IMPROVE THROUGH MIDDAY WHEN MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE.

BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE WEST AND CLEARED
SKIES FASTER WEST OF A HNZ-POB LINE.

PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...ASSOC/W SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE
LIFTING ENE/NE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THE HIGH/WEAK MSLP GRADIENT...WINDS HAVE GONE CALM IN MOST
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWED A
~1000 FT THICK LAYER OF STRATUS ORIENTED SSW-NNE FROM HWY 1
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AT MIDNIGHT...THE AREA WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE STRATUS HAS GRADUALLY SHALLOWED
(CEILINGS LOWERED) OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...MOST LIKELY IN ASSOC/W
~15 KT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS (950-925 MB)
ADVECTING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL NC. AS THE STRATUS
SHALLOWS...DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY TAKE IT`S PLACE GIVEN CALM
SFC WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BULK OF CENTRAL
NC EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS SCANT (NO RECENT RAIN).

GIVEN A SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO ADVECTION...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS (AFTER
SUNRISE) FOR THE 400-700 FT THICK STRATUS/FOG LAYER TO GRADUALLY
ERODE TOP-DOWN AND FROM THE EDGES. THE 00Z NAM EVEN SUGGESTS STRATUS
MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-
95. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPS ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1 WILL PRIMARILY BE A
FUNCTION OF STRATUS/FOG EROSION. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE FAR WESTERN
PIEDMONT TO LOWER/MID 50S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. UNCERTAINTY IS
GREATEST IN VICINITY OF I-95...WHERE TEMPS COULD BARELY HIT 50F IF
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST WELL INTO PEAK HEATING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING
AREAS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. -VINCENT

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...

A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE...APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
EARLY WED...WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC
WED EVENING/NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
BRIEFLY BACK/STRENGTHEN ATTENDANT THE STRONGEST DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/
WED EVENING. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF (3-6 HR)
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN (TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH OR TWO) TO DEVELOP EAST
OF HWY 1 WED EVENING (00-06Z THU)...IN THE FORM OF A NARROW SSW-NNE
ORIENTED SWATH WHICH DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR/MYRTLE
~21Z...PROGRESSES INTO THE SANDHILLS/SE COASTAL PLAIN ~00Z...
EVENTUALLY EXITING THE NE COASTAL PLAIN ~06Z. WILL INTRODUCE A 20-
30% CHANCE OF RAIN WED EVENING. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
WAVE AND NARROW/BRIEF WINDOW IN WHICH LIGHT PRECIP COULD OCCUR...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HIGHER CHANCES AT THIS
MOMENT. EXPECT HIGHS WED UPPER 50S (NW) TO MID 60S (SE)...LOWS THU
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FAR NW TO MID/UPPER 40S EAST/SE. -VINCENT

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...

A STRONG RIDGE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH SOME LOWER TO MID 70S
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... AND AGAIN IN THE SE ON MONDAY. THE ONLY
THING REALLY HOLDING TEMPERATURES BACK SOMEWHAT WILL BE THAT THE
MAIN RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE WEST OF THE NC MOUNTAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS FAVORS THE WARMEST READINGS IN THE TN VALLEY REGION
SAT... THEN OVER GA ON SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN STORM
TRACK IS FORECAST FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES... WITH
ONLY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO BRING OUR SHOWER CHANCES. COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH READINGS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS WILL BACK OFF INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
TUESDAY. -BADGETT

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ010-011-026>028-
041>043-077-078-084>086-088-089.

$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/WHP
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

119 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM TUE...LOW CLOUDS ALMOST GONE FROM COASTAL PLAIN.
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES.

FOR TODAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE VERY STUBBORN TO
SCOUR OUT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS UNDER THE HIGH PRES AREA
IN CONCERT WITH WEAK DECEMBER SUN. AS A RESULT...HAVE BASED FCST
ON COOLER ECS/MET GUID VS THE TOO WARM GFS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
THROUGH THE MID 50S ESP INLAND AREAS WHERE THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE
LAST TO MIX OUT. IN FACT...THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. IF THIS BECOMES THE CASE TEMPS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED A BIT MORE TODAY. AREAS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD BREAK OUT
IN SUN BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 60.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...SHOULD SEE QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AS HIGH PRES WILL BE SETTLED
OVERHEAD. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO INLAND GRIDS AS SAME AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH LOW T/TD SPREADS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE. A SHARP UPPER TROF OVER
THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY PUSHES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THAT
THERE WILL BE QA FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE ATLANTIC MOISTURE
MAY BE TAPPED. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE BUT
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF THE WETTER TREND
CONTINUES. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHUD BE DRY AS A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MINOR
AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER WAVE SET TO PUSH ACRS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE FAST MOVING FLOW THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGHS MODERATE FROM THE LOW TO MID
60S THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FRIDAY. LOWS THU NIGHT
MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW 50S COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE
BUILDING OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND THEN MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE
LATTER HALF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THICKNESS ANOMALY SHUD LEAD TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 70S AWAY FROM ANY COOLING SOUND/OCEAN
BREEZES. UPPER TROF MOVING THRU THE EASTERN STATES WILL PROPEL A
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHO TIMING IS
STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. WILL HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERNLY WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME CALM. THIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
GROUND REMAINS MOIST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY
OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH A MINIMUM AT THIS TIME IFR/MVFR. GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE INDICATING VISIBILITY CAN REDUCE DOWN TO LIFR FOR THE
INLAND TAF SITES (KPGV/KISO) AND IFR/MVFR FOR THE COASTAL SITES
(KEWN/KOAJ). VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
BY TOMORROW MID MORNING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...EXPECTING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER TROF MOVES
THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION EACH
NIGHT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION GOING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM TUE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR OREGON INLET
TO OCRACOKE. SEAS STILL AT 6 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY BUT BELIEVE THIS
WILL DROP TO 5 FEET IN NEXT HOUR OR SO. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TODAY
WITH STEADILY DIMINISHING WINDS. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
WATERS BY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VAR LESS THAN 5
KT. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS DEVELOPING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...RATHER BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST IN DIRECTION
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST. THE APPROACH, THEN
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROF WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS WINDS WED NIGHT
THEN NW THURSDAY BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KT. A
MAINLY LIGHT W/SW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 FT
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...HSA/TL/JME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

100 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM TUE...VISUAL SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
GRADUALLY ERODING MOSTLY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. CURRENT
FORECAST REASONING STILL LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO MAKE IN
FORECAST THIS MORNING.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUE...N WINDS CONTINUE 10-20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS STILL
TO 25 KT OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT
THOUGH DIAMOND STILL AT 6 FT. WINDS HAVE PEAKED EARLIER THIS
MORNING AND WILL DIMINISH HERE ON OUT. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TODAY
WITH STEADILY DIMINISHING WINDS. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
WATERS BY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VAR LESS THAN 5
KT. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS DEVELOPING.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
154.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/HSA/TL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1022 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF THOUGH LATE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEXT
MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1020 AM TUESDAY...THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS ENVELOPED THE
FORECAST AREA IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING WITH VISIBILITIES IN MOST
AREAS AT OR ABOVE 1 MILE. A FEW 1/2 MILE OR LESS SPOTS REMAIN
MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IS
SHOWING THINNING OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GRAND STRAND
NORTHWARD TOWARD LUMBERTON AND WHITEVILLE.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLOW EROSION OF CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY AFTERNOON. THE LAST AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO CLEAR BASED ON THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR WILL BE EASTERN BLADEN AND
WESTERN PENDER COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PLAGUING THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM MAY STILL BE AT
LEAST PARTIALLY TRAPPED UNDER A VERY STRONG INVERSION AT 5KFT.
EVEN SO, SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH THIS POSSIBLY SATURATED LAYER WILL
STILL ALLOW THE AFTERNOON TO WARM UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS PAIRED WITH THE
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
WEDNESDAY. A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO MIX OUT THE INVERSION
LEADING TO MORE SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT BUILDING OF RIDGING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS. THIS RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN AMPLITUDE WHILE PROGRESSING
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S BUT THE LONGER TERM BIAS TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY (HIGH 60)
LIKELY MEANS THAT THOSE VALUES ARE A BIT LOW. THE STALWART RIDGE
HOLDS ON SUNDAY EVEN AS A VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR/MVFR IN SOME LOCATIONS. POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW
CIGS...ALONG WITH DENSE FOG WHICH IS PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE INLAND
SITES. WHILE THERE IS A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AS TO TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON...FOR NOW
ANTICIPATE FOG/LOW CIGS TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG RETURN...WHICH WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR
AGAIN. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM TUESDAY.. SEAS ARE RANGING 2 TO 3 FEET FOR MOST
WATERS EXCEPT FOR SOME 4 FOOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF AMZ252
NEAR FRYING PAN. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 10 KNOT AND MAY
SLOWLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TO BELOW
10 KNOTS. THE FOG OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISHBY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF
3 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT IS FAIRLY WEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRUGGLING TO FIND CENTERS WELL OFFSHORE AS WELL AS DOWN
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FLOW WILL BE ONSHORE INITIALLY AND TEND TO
BACK A BIT AS THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC HIGH. WITH
WEAK WIND AND NO REAL SWELL-GENERATING FETCH PREDOMINANT WAVES
WILL BE GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS. FLOW REMAINS VERY WEAK ON THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT VARIABLE THOUGH A SLIGHT OFFSHORE
COMPONENT MAY TEND TO DOMINATE. SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY CAPPED AT 2
FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD FRIDAY AND THEN
MORE SO FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE
OFFSHORE IN A POSITION FAIRLY TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON. W TO SW
FLOW WILL STILL HAVE TROUBLE EXCEEDING 10 KT MUCH THOUGH AND SO
SEAS ONCE AGAIN 2 FT OR SO. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT ON
SATURDAY TURNING THE LOCAL WINDS TO MORE SOUTHERLY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

959 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUE...IFR OR LOWER CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THE MORNING PER MODEL SNDGS...GUIDANCE...AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
NEAR SFC WINDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. WEAK
DECEMBER SUN WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ERODING THE STRATUS IN THE
MORNING...AND HAVE HELD ON TO IFR CIGS UNTIL 15-17Z...THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC KEEPING LOWER CIGS TILL AFTERNOON.
VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY LESS THAN 5 KT NORTHERLY. FOR
TONIGHT...SIMILAR SETUP WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL SUB VFR OR SUB
MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG. HAVE BASED FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE AND NO LOWER THAN 3SM BEGINNING AROUND 05Z...THOUGH FOG/BR
COULD BE A BIT MORE DENSE AND BEGIN EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
154.

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/JME
MARINE...HSA/TL/JME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

700 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM TUE...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW
STRATUS BLANKETING THE EASTERN HALF OF NC THIS MORNING. THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S RAIN WITH
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY MILD AS A RESULT OF THE
CLOUDS WITH 40S AREA WIDE.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...SHOULD SEE QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AS HIGH PRES WILL BE SETTLED
OVERHEAD. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO INLAND GRIDS AS SAME AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH LOW T/TD SPREADS.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM TUE...IFR OR LOWER CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING PER MODEL SNDGS...GUIDANCE...AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
NEAR SFC WINDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. WEAK
DECEMBER SUN WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ERODING THE STRATUS IN THE
MORNING...AND HAVE HELD ON TO IFR CIGS UNTIL 15-17Z...THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC KEEPING LOWER CIGS TILL AFTERNOON.
VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY LESS THAN 5 KT NORTHERLY. FOR
TONIGHT...SIMILAR SETUP WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL SUB VFR OR SUB
MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG. HAVE BASED FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE AND NO LOWER THAN 3SM BEGINNING AROUND 05Z...THOUGH FOG/BR COULD
BE A BIT MORE DENSE AND BEGIN EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM TUE...N WINDS CONTINUE 10-20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS STILL
TO 25 KT OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT
THOUGH DIAMOND STILL AT 6 FT. WINDS HAVE PEAKED EARLIER THIS
MORNING AND WILL DIMINISH HERE ON OUT. HAVE ADJUSTED ENDING OF
SCA TO 18Z (1PM)...AS WWIV AND SWAN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TODAY WITH STEADILY DIMINISHING WINDS. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT/VAR LESS THAN 5 KT. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT S TO SE WINDS DEVELOPING.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
154.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

300 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW
STRATUS BLANKETING THE EASTERN HALF OF NC THIS MORNING. THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S RAIN
WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY MILD AS A RESULT OF THE
CLOUDS WITH 40S AREA WIDE.

FOR TODAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE VERY STUBBORN TO
SCOUR OUT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS UNDER THE HIGH PRES AREA
IN CONCERT WITH WEAK DECEMBER SUN. AS A RESULT...HAVE BASED FCST
ON COOLER ECS/MET GUID VS THE TOO WARM GFS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
THROUGH THE MID 50S ESP INLAND AREAS WHERE THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE
LAST TO MIX OUT. IN FACT...THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF
THIS BECOMES THE CASE TEMPS WOULD HAVE TO BE LOWERED TODAY. AREAS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD BREAK OUT IN SUN BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED NEAR 60.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...SHOULD SEE QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AS HIGH PRES WILL BE SETTLED OVERHEAD.
DO NOT THINK THAT FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE THOUGH T/TD SPREADS ARE
VERY LOW SO LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO INCORPORATE FOG TO FCST.

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM TUE...THINK THAT IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE REST OF THE
NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING PER MODEL SNDGS...GUIDANCE...AND VERY
LIGHT TO CALM NEAR SFC WINDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. WEAK DECEMBER SUN WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ERODING THE
STRATUS IN THE MORNING...AND HAVE HELD ON TO IFR CIGS UNTIL
14-15Z...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC KEEPING LOWER
CIGS TILL AFTERNOON. SUN WILL FINALLY COME OUT WITH PLEASANT
FLYING CONDITIONS TUE UNDER HIGH PRES AND VERY LIGHT N WINDS LESS
THAN 5 KT.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...N WINDS CONTINUE 10-20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS STILL
TO 25 KT OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT
THOUGH DIAMOND STILL AT 6 FT. THINK THAT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
PEAKING AND WILL CANCEL ALL BUT CENTRAL WATERS FROM THE SCA. HAVE
ADJUSTED ENDING OF SCA TO 18Z (1PM)...AS WWIV AND SWAN IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TODAY WITH STEADILY
DIMINISHING WINDS. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE WATERS BY THIS
EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VAR LESS THAN 5 KT. THE HIGH
BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT S TO SE WINDS
DEVELOPING.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
158.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

944 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

RADAR LOOP AND OBS SHOW THAT PRECIP IS COMING IN A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...WITH RAIN ALREADY REPORTED AT
VALLEY CITY AND DEVILS LAKE. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP ALSO...SO INCREASED POPS BETWEEN THE
HIGHWAY 2 AND I-94 CORRIDORS. HOWEVER...CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS
PLENTY OF ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH...SO THINK THAT THE RAIN WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT. RAIN
CONTINUES TO BE LIQUID AS TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S...BUT WITH SOME COLDER AIR COMING INTO THE NORTH TOWARDS
MORNING WILL KEEP THE WINTERY MIX MENTION IN THE NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BEST COLD AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF ARRIVING UNTIL
THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT...BUT NO CHANGES YET TO THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. RADAR HAS SHOWN INCREASING RETURNS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...BUT NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND
YET AS IT IS TAKING A WHILE TO SATURATE. GOING FORECAST HAS SOME
POPS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING AND
THIS STILL SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS PRECIP STARTS MOVING IN.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS/PCPN TYPE AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO THU/THU
NIGHT. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS ANOTHER DAY WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPS FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS FROM
KGFK TO KFAR TO KBWP REMAIN COOLEST WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
LOOKING INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT THINNER SPOTS TO FILL BACK IN WITH
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP WITH VERY MILD AIR HANGING TOUGH.
TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. UP IN THAT AREA
TEMPS MAY COME DOWN TO AROUND THE 32F MARK...MAKING PCPN PHASE THE
MAIN QUESTION THERE. HAVE GONE WITH THE IDEA OF MIXED PCPN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT IF THE COOLER TEMPS ARE
DELAYED IT MAY ALSO STAY AS JUST RAIN TOO. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...EXPECTING JUST RAIN TONIGHT. AMOUNTS A TOUGH
CALL TOO. SEEMS LIKE MODELS TRACK THE CLIPPER ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. MOST MODELS SEEM TO SHOW PCPN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15 TO 0.25
INCH RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200...WITH MUCH LESS TO THE
SOUTH. FORECASTING RAIN AT NIGHT IN DECEMBER IS DEFINITELY A RARE
THING. SOMETIMES MODELS ARE TOO WET WITH PCPN AMOUNTS FOR THESE
QUICK MOVING CLIPPERS...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AMOUNTS
TREND TO THE LOWER SIDE OF THE TOTALS LISTED ABOVE.

PCPN TYPE QUESTIONS CONTINUE INTO THU AS WELL. 925 MB TEMPS BEGIN
TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY.
THEREFORE SFC TEMPS SHOULD RISE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MAY SEE A MIX ON THU ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MORE LIQUID PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE TRIED TO INDICATE DRYING
WORKING INTO THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST ND BY THU AFTERNOON...BUT
SOME LIGHTER PCPN MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH OR EAST INTO THU
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF ON PCPN AMOUNTS AND SHIFTING
THEM FURTHER NORTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE COLDER AIR
WORKS INTO THE SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION. WINDS LOOK GUSTY THU INTO THU NIGHT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF
LIGHT PCPN MOVES BACK IN FRI. MODELS START TO DIFFER QUITE A BIT
BY THIS TIME. SOME MOVE THE PCPN OFF QUICKLY AND OTHERS LINGER IT
INTO SAT. THE TREND AT LEAST FOR THE FRI SYSTEM IS FURTHER NORTH
THAN THEY SHOWED YESTERDAY. SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. AT LEAST BY THEN...PCPN TYPE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SNOW.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... MODELS INITIALIZED WELL THIS
RUN AND ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. OVERALL PATTERN IN TRANSITION AND
EXPECT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS IT SWITCHES TO MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SPLIT JET PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE TO
START THE PERIOD WITH THE NRN STREAM OVER THE REGION. A SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE NRN PART OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
-RA/-SN OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF MN...AND -SN OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY TUESDAY...AND ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA BRINGING A CHC OF SNOW TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ATTM AND WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S...TO LOW 30S IN THE SOUTH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CIGS GETTING DOWN TO MVFR WITH SOME
FAIRLY LOW VIS AS RAIN COMES IN DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM OBS ARE MOSTLY VFR AND THINK THAT
CLOUDS WILL BE MIDLEVEL WITH PRECIP MOVING IN AS WE SATURATE FROM
ABOVE. KEPT SOME RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN SITES BUT OUT OF
KFAR. PRECIP WILL END AND WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AS
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES BY. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND PICK UP WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 25 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. DO THINK THE MVFR CIGS WILL FINALLY
ARRIVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR PUSHES IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1148 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM DICKINSON TO ELGIN AND INTO
WESTERN SIOUX COUNTY AS OF 1745 UTC...AND RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS
DO SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES CROSSING THE AREA. WE THUS
LINGERED A LOW-END CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

WE UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS...MEANING
THAT WE LINGERED LOW-END /SLIGHT CHANCE/ POPS THROUGH THE MORNING
OVER WESTERN ND IN RESPECT TO LIGHT UPSTREAM SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR
SIDNEY MT. RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS HAVE ASSIMILATED THOSE SHOWERS
MORE ACCURATELY AND ALSO IMPLY A LOW-END CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN ND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS CROSSES THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...AIR AND ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND...AND EVEN IN PLACES
WHERE A SMALL RISK REMAINS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING
RAIN WILL QUICKLY CLOSE BY ABOUT 930 AM CST. PARTS OF LAMOURE AND
DICKEY COUNTIES LIKELY HAVE THE GREATEST...ALBEIT STILL SMALL...
RISK OF ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THAT TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

HESITANT TO COMPLETELY REMOVE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN QUITE YET
WITH LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES STILL TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND THE
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...ROAD
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WERE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING. THE EXCEPTIONS WERE LINTON AND WISHEK WHICH WERE AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING RESPECTIVELY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON POPS WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING. DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A LITTLE THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS FREEZING RAIN CHANCES THIS
MORNING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
WHICH IS THE OUTLIER) TODAY AND THE SHORT TERM HIGH-RES MODELS
DEPICT ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA.

RADAR SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 20
DEGREES AND CLOUD CEILINGS NEAR 10K FEET...ANY PRECIPITATION
ALOFT IS LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...LEFT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
ANY MORE ROBUST ECHOES DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION.

BY THE AFTERNOON WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO VALUES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY BUT PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KICK IN LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIPITATION HIGHLIGHT THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A COOLING TREND AS WE HEAD
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH DIFFERENCES
IN SPECIFICS HAMPERING THE FORECAST.

WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON A WARM NOTE WITH UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA.
WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM WITH A FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY...BUT IF WE CAN MAXIMIZE OUR AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WE
COULD POSSIBLY APPROACH SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE FIRST...TRACKS INTO EASTERN
MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING. THE PROBLEM IS THAT DETERMINISTIC
MODELS EACH HAVE A DIFFERING SOLUTION IN HOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THUS THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFS IS DEFINITELY THE STRONGEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS AND AND MORE STACKED WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS TO
THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NAM
IS MOST LIKE THE GFS BUT AS USUAL IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER WITH THE
WIND POTENTIAL...FAILING TO COMPLETELY MIX OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE
ECMWF/GEM OFFER A MORE DIFFUSE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH HIGHEST WINDS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. DUE
TO THE WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS
AT THIS TIME...BUT DID INCREASE THE SURFACE WINDS AND GUSTS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE BLENDED
MOS SOLUTION.

MODELS ALSO ARE VARYING THE QPF PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN
GENERAL...DUE TO THE WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WEDNESDAY EVENING WOULD BE LIQUID. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION. THE GFS/NAM KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ENTERS
THE WEST BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. THE GEM/ECMWF WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...ARE WETTER. AND EVEN THOUGH
FORECAST LOWS ARE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MANY AREAS...WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY THERE IS A MIX
OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS
NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH.

ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. AGAIN...EVEN THOUGH LARGE SCALE FEATURES ARE
SIMILAR...SPECIFICS VARY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WITH COLDER AIR PULLED INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
IS MUCH LESS. ALTHOUGH IT CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WILL
NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

IN A NUTSHELL...THREE QUICK MOVING WAVES TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EACH WITH THEIR OWN FORECAST
ISSUES AND EACH WILL NEED WATCHING IN THE COMING DAYS.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND WE GET A BREAK WITH THE STORM TRACK
DROPPING WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MAINLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS FROM KDIK TOWARD KMBG WILL DIMINISH BY ABOUT 21 UTC
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...CJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

834 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS FREEZING RAIN CHANCES THIS
MORNING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIPITATION HIGHLIGHT THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A COOLING TREND AS WE HEAD
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH DIFFERENCES
IN SPECIFICS HAMPERING THE FORECAST.

IN A NUTSHELL...THREE QUICK MOVING WAVES TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EACH WITH THEIR OWN FORECAST
ISSUES AND EACH WILL NEED WATCHING IN THE COMING DAYS.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND WE GET A BREAK WITH THE STORM TRACK
DROPPING WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MAINLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 834 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND BEFORE 18 UTC TODAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ/CJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1137 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME MID CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA.
ONE BAND NOW MOVING INTO NW MN WITH A CLEAR WEDGE OVER ERN
ND...BUT MORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM. THESE CLOUDS AND A SOUTH
WIND 5-10 KTS KEEPING TEMPS PRETTY STEADY. NOT MUCH CHANGE THRU
SUNRISE. RADARS SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIP ENTERING NW SD NORTH OF
RAPID CITY AND THEN EXTENDING TOWARD BILLINGS MT. 00Z GFS SEEMS
TOO FAR NORTH WITH THICKER MID CLOUD AND LIGHT PRECIP AND PREFER A
BIT FAR SOUTH IDEA VIA NAM AND HRRR WITH THICKER CLOUDS MORE SO
NRN SD THRU TUESDAY MORNING. ANY VERY LIGHT PRECIP MORE SO ALONG
ND/SD BORDER BISMARCK WEST AND SOUTHWEST. IDEA OF ANY SPRINKLES
REACHING SE ND 15Z AND ONWARD STILL LOOKS OK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE FOR TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA
HAS BROUGHT NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
TOWARDS THE MT/ND BORDER BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND ALONG WITH IT THE THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS ALONG WITH WINDS AROUND 5 TO
10 KTS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS VERY
MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 30S. THE FAR EASTERN TIER COULD SEE SOME
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND POSSIBLY FOG...AS THEY HAVE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS THE LONGEST...BUT THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD HAVE
SOME FAIRLY DRY AIR AS THE SHORTWAVE COMES IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOW A LARGE DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME
TOMORROW MORNING. 12Z ECMWF AND SEVERAL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE US COMPLETELY DRY TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP SOME 20-40ISH POPS IN CASE PRECIP MANAGES TO REACH THE
GROUND. ROAD TEMP FORECASTS HAVE SFC TEMPS CLIMBING TO ABOVE
FREEZING AROUND 10 AM...SO IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST THE
COLUMN CAN SATURATE VS WARMING TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS BUT WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE ANY HEADLINES OUT FOR NOW.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO SOUTHERN MN
TOMORROW...AND WITH CLIMBING TEMPS AT THE SFC THERE SHOULD BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE BUT NOT REALLY ENOUGH TO KNOCK US BACK TO NORMAL. KEPT
HIGHS FOR TOMORROW WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SNOW PACK AND
40S IN THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
QUICKLY RETURN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE CLOSER TO THE
AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY DECEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FOR MID WEEK...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE STAYING TO OUR NORTH OVER
CANADA. KEPT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DRY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT A MUCH
HIGHER CHANCE WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE ARE STILL A LOT
OF VARIATIONS IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...SO KEPT HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. COLDER AIR WILL START TO MOVE DOWN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS AT THIS POINT DO NOT HAVE
A STRONG WARM LAYER ALOFT BUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN COOLING OFF AT
ONCE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FREEZING RAIN BUT THINK THE
PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS IN FOR THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY MILD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP
THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKING AT THE 12Z OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE GFS/EC/GEM ANY AGREEMENT STARTS TO FADE PRETTY QUICKLY.
ALL SEEM TO HAVE A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI BUT THE GFS
QUICKLY BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE...THEN TAKES ON MORE OF A ZONAL
LOOK. AT THE SFC THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW FRI INTO
SAT WITH A LOT OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS/GEM HAVE A
SLOWER/WEAKER SCENARIO. FOR NOW WILL USE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE WHICH
FAVORS LOWER PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME FRAME. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE FOR THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME EITHER WITH THE MODELS QUITE
OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER. THE RESULT AGAIN IS MOST OF THIS TIME
FRAME STAYS COVERED WITH LOW PCPN CHANCES. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FRI/SAT THEN DIP DOWN CLOSER TOWARD NORMAL
FOR SUN/MON.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THIS SET OF TAFS. VFR THRU THE PD WITH
PERIODS OF BROKEN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10
KTS THRU TUESDAY MORNING...TURNING MORE WESTERLY TUES AFTN IN THE
RRV AND WEST.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...RIDDLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1025 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER
RIDGE THAT WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FROM THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ABOUT 20 KNOTS OF WIND...SEE VAD WINDS AT 3000 FEET...HAVE
ALLOWED MIXING OF THE DENSE FOG...AND HELP KEEP TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING THIS EVENING.

ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS SOME TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WEST. FREEZING LEVEL ABOUT 6000 FT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW...LATE AFT.

NE WIND HAS RESULTED IN MORE DENSE FOG AT AOO. MOST AREAS
SE TO NW WINDS NOW.

OTHER SITES NOT BAD...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR
A DENSE FOG OR FREEZING FOG ADVISORY.

STILL A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE...BUT BINOVC ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE HIGHS YESTERDAY BY ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES.

ALSO WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH...VAD WINDS ABOUT 20 KNOTS
AT 3000 FEET.

LINE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE TEMPERATURES. STILL 32 DEGREES AT THE RDA.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW...EARLY AFT.

SATELLITE SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS MELTING AWAY VERY...VERY SLOWLY AT
THE EDGES. OTHERWISE BANDS OF FRONTAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARE ENTERING EASTERN OHIO AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TONIGHT.

HAVE BEEN USING THE HRRR TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE VERY NEAR
TERM CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. IT HAS BEEN TOO FAST ERODING
THE LOW CLOUDS BUT 2M TEMPS AND PBL PROGS SUGGEST KEEPING THE
IMPROVEMENT SLOW FOR CENTRAL AREAS.

NEAR TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHEARING THE PARENT
UPPER TROUGH OUT AND TRACKING IT NORTH OF THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL APPROACH MY FAR NWRN ZONES BY NIGHTFALL BEFORE TRACKING
ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEAKENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST AND DURING THE HOURS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...WITH POPS DWINDLING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL ACTUALLY AVERAGE SOME
10-15 DEG WARMER THAN NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DID EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME FOR THU.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

ANOTHER WEAKENING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT TO
OUR NW...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE FOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SET UP
WHICH SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT
HAVE PLAGUED THE REGION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND A MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP...HIGHS TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S...STILL SOME 10-15 DEG WARMER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR-RECORD WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THIS
PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS FCST +20 TO +30 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY COMPLICATE
THINGS AT FIRST AND WILL ASSESS THIS RISK IN THE SHORT RANGE.

THE GREATEST RISK FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ON MONDAY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN PATTERN THIS FAR OUT GIVEN VERY
GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT. TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO STAY
RELATIVELY MILD FOR DECEMBER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH A COOL
DOWN TO "NEAR NORMAL" POSSIBLE AROUND THE 18-19TH.

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BFD/JST...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA TERMINALS. THERE ARE SIGNS HOWEVER THAT THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE AROUND THE EDGES WITH ALTOONA
RECENTLY IMPROVING TO 2 MILES IN FOG AND EVEN A FEW RAYS OF SUN
BEING SEEN OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT TIMES. I`M NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC
FOR WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENT HOWEVER AS WE HAVE VERY LOW SUN ANGLES
AND STILL VERY LIGHT WINDS.

HRRR STILL SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL PA FINALLY BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS HANGING
TOUGH OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH SPEEDS OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS
INCREASING TO AROUND 8-10KT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK TROUGH.

THE WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING AN
INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CIG RESTRICTIONS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. OVER MY SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS
THE LOW CLOUDS FROM TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH WITH EVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG TO REDEVELOP UNDER THE PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL INVERSION.

THE WEAKENING FRONT/TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY AND FINALLY BRING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
TO THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. WE SHOULD START THE DAY WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME FOG OVER EASTERN
AREAS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW FRESHENS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...AREAS OF MORNING FOG. THEN MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA NW HALF. MAINLY VFR SE.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...FROPA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ABERDEEN SD

949 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL BRING
WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND INCREASING WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN ECHOES IN NW SD LATE THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 531 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH 2 WEAK SYSTEMS DURING THE SHORT TERM.
HRRR AND RUC BOTH BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN CWA
THIS EVENING...WITH PROFILES SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ONCE SATURATION IS ACHIEVED...THUS NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +6C AND A
PREDOMINANT WEST WIND. THIS WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING
WITH 1/2KM WINDS UPWARDS OF 50KTS...HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE DEGREE OF
COLD ADVECTION...LOW VALUES FOR PRESSURE RISES...AND A 10 TO 12MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE...ANTICIPATE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO FULLY REALIZE THESE STRONGER WINDS. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINE
IN PLACE WITH THE REST OF THE CWA POSSIBLY SEEING A FEW GUSTS NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING PEAK HEATING.

THE SECOND WEAK WAVE MOVES IN FOR EARLY FRIDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL
GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO SHEAR APART...PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY WILL LIKELY DROP THROUGH THE MID DAY HOURS. PROFILES ARE
MAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW...WITH GUIDANCE ESTIMATING AROUND AN INCH
OR TWO JUST NORTH OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE ALL MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH...THEY
DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN. THE MODEL RUNS FROM LAST
NIGHT...WHICH SHOWED DRY CONDITIONS PER THE ECMWF/GEM...HAVE FLIPPED
WITH THE 12Z RUN. THE GFS NOW KEEPS THE CWA DRY...WHILE THE
ECMWF/GEM BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PREFERRED A DRY SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND
BASED ON THE NAEFS...WHICH SHOWS A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SOLUTION.

AFTER A MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH
A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
STORM COULD BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. OF
COURSE IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO TALK SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG
WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT MBG...ABR AND ATY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
AT ALL LOCATIONS.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM MST THURSDAY FOR SDZ003-015.

MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

537 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM MST THURSDAY FOR SDZ003-015.

MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

902 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND HRRR SUGGEST FOG WILL DEVELOP A BIT
LATER TONIGHT BUT KBYY AND KLBX ARE ALREADY DOWN TO A 1/4 MILE.
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM CRP AND LCH LOOK A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE TEMP INVERSION AT 900 MB LOOKS A BIT WEAKER
AND THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE VERTICAL MIXING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING A SWATH OF CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS WHICH
WILL AT LEAST BRIEFLY IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH TRENDS AND FEEL A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED
FROM ABOUT 11 PM TO 9 AM THURSDAY MORNING. WILL WAIT FOR A FEW
MORE SITES TO REPORT LOWER VISIBILITY AND ISSUE THE NPW A BIT
LATER THIS EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...A VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION SAT NIGHT. JET DYNAMICS LOOK STRONG WITH A
LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS AND SE TX WILL ALSO LIE IN A
DEPARTING 140 KNOT RRQ. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG
WITH DAMAGING WINDS. HELICITY VALUES WILL EXCEED 200 M/S SO THERE
COULD ALSO BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

LASTLY...WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE CORPUS CHRISTI OFFICE FOR
PROVIDING BACK UP SERVICE FOR US TODAY. THEY WERE AWESOME. 43

.CLIMATE...
ALTHO THE CALENDAR SAYS IT IS DECEMBER...IT HARDLY FEELS DECEMBER
LIKE. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AND WILL
APPROACH RECORD VALUES AT HOUSTON BUSH AND HOUSTON HOBBY. BELOW
ARE THE RECORDS FOR ALL 4 CLIMATE SITES FOR FRIDAY DEC 11TH.

SITE FCST HIGH REC HIGH NORM HIGH

BUSH IAH 82 83 2007 65
HOU HOBBY 82 82 2007 65
COL STATION 80 82 2007 63
GALVESTON 75 78 2007 64

BACK ON DEC 10TH 2008...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BROUGHT A BAND
OF SNOW TO SE TX WITH 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY EAST OF I-45.
BAYTOWN...LA PORTE AND LIBERTY ALL RECORDED 4 INCHES OF SNOW. 43

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015/

AVIATION...
AM EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REDEVELOP AS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WASHES OUT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF FOG
PROBABILITIES ALL POINT TO FOG. DENSE FOG IS MOST PROBABLE BETWEEN
10Z AND 14Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS THEN FORECASTS THE FOG TO LIFT BUT
THEN ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS. INLAND OF
KLBX CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TNT ACROSS
MOSTLY THE SRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SE TX. SFC DEWPOINTS EVEN
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WL SET THE
STAGE FOR THIS FOG EVENT. WL LKLY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVY. ONCE THE
FOG AND STRATUS BURNS OFF ON THU MORNING...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED. IT WL LKLY BE JUST SHY OF
RECORD TEMPS BUT MAY GET CLOSE AT IAH. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND ONCE AGAIN IT WL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LVLS.

OF COURSE THE MAIN STORY WL BE THE APPROACHING SRN STREAM S/WV
TROUGH AXIS. IT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WL DRAW IN A PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE AIDED BY ANOTHER SMALLER SCALE S/WV DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DEPTH WL
BE INCREASING AS WELL AS THE SLY LLJ INCREASES TO AROUND 40 KT. A
STRENGTHENING S/SW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WL PROMOTE RICH MOISTURE ADVECTION AT ALL LVLS AND
HELP TO INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ENSEMBLE AND WPC PROGS
SUGGEST A SOLID 1-2 INCH OF QPF SEEMS LKLY WITH THIS EVENT. OF
COURSE TRAINING OF CELLS WL LKLY YIELD A BIT MORE IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAINLY FROM HOUSTON NWD. WENT AS HIGH AS
LKLY/CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS EVENT. AS FOR THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BLV THAT THE INCREASING SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES AND
DYNAMIC FORCING MAY YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ALONG A
POTENTIAL LINEAR QLCS WHICH MAY TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LCLS AND 0-1KM
HELICITIES ABV 200 M2/S2. THE COLD FRONT WL SWEEP THROUGH QUICKLY
ON SUNDAY MORNING AND WL END RAIN CHANCES AS STRONG SUBSIDENT AND
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE CWA DURING THE AFTN ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF
COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURN FLOW QUICKLY
RE-DEVELOPS BY MONDAY AFTN. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR
TUE AND WED AS BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE DEEPENS ONCE AGAIN.

MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW AND SEAS WL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
OVERALL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS SHOULD COMMENCE BY SATURDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS WL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW WL RE-
DEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 79 63 80 67 / 10 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 55 80 65 82 67 / 10 10 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 61 73 66 75 68 / 10 10 10 10 10

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1129 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

CHALLENGES TONIGHT INCLUDE CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES. WILL
FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE LATEST RAP 0.5 KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT
AND THE CIRA SYNTHETIC FOG PRODUCT...BOTH OF WHICH CLOSELY MATCH
CURRENT REALITY.

CLEARING LINE AS OF 07.20Z EXTENDS FROM NEAR EAU CLAIRE TO DECORAH...
MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 25 MPH. BEFORE SUNSET...EXPECT AN HOUR
OR TWO OF INCREASING SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN IN COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT AND THEN MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. SHOULD STILL SEE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST
MOVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER GIVEN LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURNING TO THE WEST
AROUND 20 KTS...BUT AREAS EAST OF THE MS RIVER LIKELY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...
INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS INTO THE MID 30S.
FARTHER WEST WHERE SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR FAVORED
COLD SPOTS. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
COVERAGE/RELATIVE IMPACT WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN LAST NIGHT.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME PEAKS OF SUN EARLY TUESDAY...CLOUD COVER
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-
WAVE ALOFT. INITIAL DRY AIR MASS BELOW 700 HPA WILL LIMIT PRECIP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE SOME RAIN REACH THE GROUND TUESDAY
EVENING AS LOWER LEVELS SATURATE AND 850 TO 700 HPA TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN WI. BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-94...BUT EVEN THERE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE
FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE...GENERALLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT ON THURSDAY
GIVEN A VERY WARM START TO THE DAY (LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40 DEGREES) AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM +4 TO +7 CELSIUS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S FOR THURSDAY/S HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL FALL TO SOMETHING MORE COMMON FOR MID-DECEMBER
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S AFTER PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY.

PRECIP-WISE...ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. THERE IS MODEST SPREAD AMONG THE SREF
MEMBERS CONCERNING THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS TROUGH...BUT
IT APPEARS THE BEST SATURATION/LIFT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I-94
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FARTHER SOUTH. THERMAL PROFILE IS
WARM ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING THAT DOES ACCUMULATE TO FALL AS RAIN.

STILL WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MUCH LARGER TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE 07.12Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND MUCH DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO ITS GFS
COUNTERPART. WILL KEEP BROAD BRUSH 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR NOW WITH THE GFS PRODUCING MOST OF ITS
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHEREAS THE ECMWF/S SLOWER SOLUTION
BRINGS AN AREA OF PRECIP FARTHER WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS NOTED ABOVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THIS
WEEKEND...SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN
SNOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STORM TRACK AND THEREFORE
ITS THERMAL PROFILE. WILL BE ABLE TO FINE-TUNE FORECAST AS MODELS
WORK THROUGH SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
CYCLES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER THE STRATUS
DEPARTS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IS POSSIBLE RIGHT
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE DEPARTING STRATUS WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING
TO AROUND 4 SM. A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 5 TO 8
KFT RANGE. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING BUT GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER IN
PLACE...CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1251 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND IS VARIABLE...SO TEMPERATURES ARE
BOUNCING UP AND DOWN WITH IT. REGARDLESS...LOWS GENERALLY HAVE
EITHER ALREADY OCCURRED OR SHOULD OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT...THEN EXPECT
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES WITH MORE PERSISTENT AND
THICKENING CLOUD COVER THEN.

LOWS OUTSIDE OF TWIN FORKS REMAIN A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS RIDGING BRIEFLY
MOVES OVERHEAD BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THERE WILL STILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CONNECTICUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD WILL
SLOWLY ERODE DURING THE MORNING LEADING TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL H5 PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH JUST
SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE IMPACTING THE STRENGTH
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE DEEP SOUTH ON
SUN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MON AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
TUE. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BEAR WATCHING AS IT IS A FAIRLY
DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM ON TUE WITH DEEP MIXING...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
VELOCITY AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE SYSTEM. ITS A FAST MOVER SO JUST A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN WHICH
SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

ONCE THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT TEMPS WILL
DROP CONSIDERABLY...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUE AND WED.

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND PASS THROUGH ABOUND
DAYBREAK THU.

MVFR CIGS NW OF THE NYC METRO TERMINALS COULD LIFT TO VFR FOR A TIME
LATER THIS EVENING AT KHPN...THEN RETURN OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND FOG
WITH IFR VSBY STILL EXPECTED FOR A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THU MORNING AT KSWF.

THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR UNTIL
ABOUT 16Z. NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND TERMINALS NOW LOOK LESS LIKELY
TO SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDS FOR AN HR OR TWO AROUND SUNRISE...BUT HELD
ONTO TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT KEWR/KTEB.

SE-S WINDS 5-10 KT SHOULD SHIFT SW OR WNW AFTER DAYBREAK
THU...THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DAY THU.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.LATE THU NIGHT...MVFR CONDS LIKELY. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT KSWF.
.FRI...BECOMING VFR.
.SAT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LATE.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN.

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP SUB SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE OCEAN...WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE NO GREATER THAN 15 KT WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MALOIT/DS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...24/MALOIT/DS
HYDROLOGY...24/DS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

345 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RIDGE UP ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRES AND UPR RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURES
ONCE AGAIN AS THE UNSEASONABLY WARM DECEMBER WX CONTINUES.

A WK UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVG ACRS THE AREA THIS AM AND HAS
TOUCHED OFF SOME SHWRS. THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE HAS DECREASED,
BUT ONE PORTION OF THE SHWRS WILL MOVE ACRS THE WRN SUBURBS OF
PHILLY AND THE LEHIGH VLY BEFORE MOVG INTO CNTRL NJ, IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH.

THE HRRR DOES NOT KEEP THE PRECIP TOGETHER WHILE OTHER SHORT TERM
GUID DOES.

ONCE THIS FEATURE MOVES THRU, EXPECT A GENLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
QUIET AND MILD WX IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES
S OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SWLY FLOW. THERE CUD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
ONCE AGAIN BUT LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND WHAT NRML HIGHS SHOULD BE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGN OF ANY WINTER-LIKE WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE ENTIRE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE WARMEST PART WILL BE THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S IN MANY AREAS. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CONTROL.

A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 982
MBS...SO A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA.
WE WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE 60S. FREQUENT SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT HIGHS TUE AND WED WILL
STILL BE IN THE 50S...SO READINGS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER.

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AN UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVG THRU ERLY THIS MRNG AND HAS
BROUGHT SOME MVFR CIGS, MAINLY N AND W. SOME BRIEF SHRA IS ALSO
PSBL ERLY THIS MRNG MAINLY N AND W OF KPHL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR, THOUGH THESE CONDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED YET. FURTHER SE
ALG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR,
THRU MID-MRNG, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND THESE SITES REMAIN
VFR. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT ADDITIONAL DATA AND MAKE AMENDMENTS AS
NEEDED.

AFTER MID MRNG, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVE HOURS. THEN, THERE CUD BE SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS FRI MRNG.

WIND IS EXPECTED TO GENLY BE W TO SW AT 5 KT OR LESS THRU THE PD.

OUTLOOK...
FRI THRU SUN NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS. GUSTY
WINDS AND LLWS POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS
WITH LIGHT S TO SW FLOW. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 4 FT AND SHOULD
DECREASE TO AROUND 3 FT LATER TODAY. WIND WILL GENLY BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS BUILD SUN NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

.CLIMATE...

HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY, SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY
/DECEMBER 11-14/ ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. THE WARMEST DAY OF
THESE LISTED SHOULD BE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, HOWEVER EVEN
MONDAY COULD BE CLOSE FOR SOME AREAS IF THE SHOWERS HOLD OFF LONGER.

LOCATION DEC 11 DEC 12 DEC 13 DEC 14
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------

KACY 66 IN 1971 67 IN 1931 69 IN 1991 65 IN 1929

KPHL 65 IN 1971* 65 IN 1931 65 IN 1923 69 IN 1881

KILG 66 IN 1971 64 IN 1983* 64 IN 1923 63 IN 2001

KABE 61 IN 1979* 63 IN 1931 62 IN 1923 60 IN 2001

KTTN 65 IN 1911 67 IN 1931 65 IN 1990 67 IN 1901

KGED 66 IN 2008 68 IN 1971 67 IN 1985 67 IN 2001*

KRDG 66 IN 1911 66 IN 1911 61 IN 1946 66 IN 1920*

KMPO 60 IN 1979 63 IN 1979 58 IN 1979 58 IN 1901

* INDICATES LATEST OF MULTIPLE YEARS.

.EQUIPMENT...
HOWELL NJ AND ALLENTOWN PA NWR TRANSMITTERS HAD ISSUES LAST NIGHT...BUT
SEEM OKAY AS OF 330 AM.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

257 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

Southerly winds and occasional cloud cover keeping temperatures on
the mild side this morning with most areas still in the 40s. A storm
system over the Northern Plains this morning is forecast to pass
well north of our area, resulting in windy and mild weather today
with temperatures some 20 to 25 degrees above normal for this time
of year. A rather tight pressure gradient across the Midwest today
as the intense storm system passes to our north, resulting in gusty
south to southwest winds with RAP and hi-res NAM forecast soundings
suggesting a few of the more favored locations across the north
possibly gusting up to 35 to 40 mph at times later this morning into
the afternoon hours. Still some uncertainty with respect to how much
of the stronger winds will be able to mix down to the surface later
this morning, especially with most of the soundings indicating a low
level inversion in place, which would keep the stronger winds from
reaching the surface. At this time, it appears the sustained wind
speeds will remain just below wind advisory criteria.

Soundings also showing quite a bit of dry air in place this afternoon
just ahead of the weak surface trof/wind shift line with the better
mid level forcing remaining to our north. So will continue with a
dry forecast with forecast highs trending towards the warmer MAV
guidance this afternoon, resulting in highs in the upper 50s far
north to the middle 60s west. Record high for Peoria today is 67
degrees which was set back in 1918, and 69 degrees in Springfield
which was also set back in 1918.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

Not a lot of change in thinking in regards to our unseasonably mild
weather the next several days. Upper low west of Washington state
early this morning will help dig a broad scale upper trough along
the West coast beginning later today, with the trough sharpening as
it digs south toward the 4-corners region Friday night. Nice surge
of anomalously warm and moist air will be transported into our
region as this trough digs. A few parts of the CWA could be flirting
with 70 degrees Saturday afternoon with widespread record highs
likely (see Climate section further down). Even at night,
temperatures this weekend likely to be 15-20 degrees above what
the normal highs would be. A bit of a slowdown in this system will
result in lower 60s for highs lingering into Sunday.

Initial hints at the upcoming rainfall will begin later tonight, as
the upper low currently tracking across southern Saskatchewan passes
across the northern Great Lakes. While this system itself will miss
us, it will help draw some moisture northward with a steady flow off
the Gulf of Mexico. Have maintained some 30% rain chances across the
southeast third of the forecast area for Friday as this moisture
feed gets amplified, as dew points start to surge into the 50s. Rain
threat starts to shift toward the warm frontal boundary to our north
Friday night, before the main show begins as a surface low forms
near the Texas Panhandle as the upper trough arrives. A couple
surface lows will impact our area, one passing near or just
northwest of us Sunday, then a secondary one going over us Sunday
night just ahead of a strong upper low. The ECMWF has been most
consistent with the idea of the upper low, while the the GFS
maintains a sharp upper trough passing overhead Sunday night. The
Canadian model follows the ECMWF but is a bit slower in this regard.
With the system slowing a bit, have extended the categorical PoP`s
over the entire CWA through Sunday night. Precipitable water still
progged to be in record territory near 1.4 inches Saturday night and
Sunday. Current indications are that 2-3 inches of rain are likely
from about I-57 westward, with a bit lower totals east as the rain
will be a bit slower to arrive Saturday night. With the system
rather strong as it moves away, have increased rain chances Monday
morning, but most sites should be dry by afternoon.

Looking later in time, another broad trough will form over the
western CONUS early next week, with an upper low forming near the
South Dakota/Nebraska area. This system will track northeast and may
draw some moisture northward with it, and have some low chance PoP`s
over the southeast CWA Tuesday night.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

Low Level Wind Shear /LLWS/ is the initial concern for the first 6
hours of this TAF period. A surface trough extending south of a
low in southern Manitoba will approach IL late tonight. A low
level jet of 50-55kt at 925mb will crank up across Missouri and
into western Illinois before sunrise, setting the stage for LLWS.
The western TAF sites will have the best chances of seeing LLWS
through mid-morning. CMI and DEC may see surface winds increase
enough to preclude LLWS by the time the low level jet reaches into
eastern Illinois. We did continue to include LLWS for all TAF
sites from roughly 10z-15z as a precaution for now.

Wind direction will be south-southwest over the next 24 hours,
with the strongest winds developing toward 18z tomorrow. Sustained
winds could reach 20-25kt, with gusts to near 35kt at times.

Cloud cover will remain VFR through this TAF period, under mainly
cirrus cloud cover. Mid clouds associated with the low should
remain north of our TAF sites.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

Record highs for the weekend:

Location Friday Saturday Sunday
-------- ------ -------- ------
Bloomington 65 (1949) 65 (1896) 63 (1975)
Champaign 64 (1949) 62 (1991) 64 (1975)
Charleston 66 (1931) 67 (1949) 64 (1991)
Decatur 65 (1949) 65 (1929) 66 (1975)
Effingham 60 (1979) 67 (1929) 65 (1991)
Lincoln 66 (1949) 64 (1929) 64 (1975)
Peoria 64 (1949) 62 (1991) 63 (1975)
Springfield 67 (1949) 64 (1929) 67 (1948)

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
CLIMATE...Geelhart

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

357 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...THE TAIL END OF A 500 MB TROUGH MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA A FEW HOURS AGO...SUPPORTING A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS NOW ACCELERATING NE AWAY FROM THE NC COAST. A VERY
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO ACCOMPANIED THIS FEATURE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT THE SURFACE LAYER HAS DECOUPLED FROM
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPOSPHERE...TRAPPING A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THE RESULT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE VERY DRY AIR IS ADVECTING IN RIGHT
DOWN TO THE TOP OF THE DECOUPLED LAYER...LEAVING ONLY A 200-300 FOOT
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO SUPPORT FOG. THE APPROACH OF SCATTERED
CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE FEW HOURS REMAINING BEFORE SUNRISE SHOULD
HELP THIS INCOMING DRY AIR TEMPER THE SEVERITY OF FOG...AND NO DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED.

AFTER SUNRISE ATTENTION WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER GEORGIA WHICH SHOULD SHIFT EAST TO THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPS OF 7C TO 8C SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE HIGH SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING LOOK FOR LOWS TO REACH 45-50...WARMEST ALONG THE BEACHES.
FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LESS THAN WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST THREE
NIGHTS DUE TO MARGINAL MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND BACK OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A FAIRLY WEAK RETURN FLOW AS A DEEP RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT. THIS WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AS H5
HEIGHTS RISE CLOSE TO 590 DEM BY SAT NIGHT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ALONG WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW...WILL PRODUCE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...UP TO 15 DEGREES
BOTH FRI AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S MOST
PLACES LEAVING TEMPS SHY OF RECORD MAXES BUT STILL QUITE WARM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...CONTINUED WARMTH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGE SLIPS SLOWLY EAST. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE SUN INTO MON AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL
AID IN WAA WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AIR. TEMPS SHOULD
REACH UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY...BUT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT ON MONDAY...BUT
STILL WELL INTO THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...NEAR 60. OVERALL
EXPECT WARM AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS THROUGH MONDAY WITH BEST
CHC OF SHWRS ON MON. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WARM THROUGH MID WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AND
ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING OF SKIES. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
DROPPED TO ABOUT NOTHING SO FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT FLO THROUGH 12 Z. IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT LBT AS WELL...WITH THE HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTING CRE/MYR MAY GET IFR CONDITIONS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW SO AFTER SUNRISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT W TO NW WINDS THAT SHOULD BECOME W TO SW
AROUND SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY DUE TO LOW CIGS AND
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT MOVED OFFSHORE A FEW HOURS
AGO...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA WILL BUILD EAST TO THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFFSHORE TONIGHT BUT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH WINDS REMAINING 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST NEAR CAPE FEAR...UP TO 4 FEET...DUE
TO THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS THAT WERE PRESENT JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE
PAST 3-6 HOURS. THIS LINGERING EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH SEAS DIMINISHING TO ONLY 2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND BACK OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY SLACK...KEEPING WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FRI
THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO MONDAY WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN
SEAS THROUGH SUN AFTN INTO MONDAY. EXPECT SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT
EARLY SUNDAY TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS BY MIDNIGHT. VERY
WARM TEMPS ON SUN AND MONDAY WILL ALSO HELP TO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. OVERALL EXPECT S-SW WINDS INCREASING UP TO
20 TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP STEADILY BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY
INTO MID WEEK. SEAS WILL BE BACK DOWN BELOW 3 FT BY TUES

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA/RAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1203 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACCOMPANIED BY A
WARMING TREND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS MIDNIGHT UPDATE
WAS TO INCREASE THE PREVALENCE OF FOG ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND INTERIOR SE NORTH CAROLINA. SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS BEEN LEFT BEHIND WITHIN A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER
WHILE DRY AIR IS BUILDING IN ALOFT. RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS PUSHED
HUMIDITY TO 100 PERCENT AT THE SURFACE AND FOG IS THE RESULT.
LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW FOG EXPANDING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...
ALTHOUGH NOT ALL THE WAY TO WILMINGTON. WE MAY END UP WITH DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES BEFORE THE NIGHT IF THROUGH. DISCUSSION FROM
EARLIER FOLLOWS...

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY GRAZE THE CAPE FEAR REGION LATE
THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING TO THE NNE. KLTX PICKING UP RETURNS
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO COASTAL BRUNSWICK WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COAST AND A PORTION OF THE
INTERIOR. SHOWERS MAY DROP A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS THROUGH LATE
EVENING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN WAS INSERTED FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. PATCHY FOG WAS ALSO NEEDED IN AREAS WHERE CLEARING
HAS OCCURRED FARTHER INLAND. THE CLEARING TREND LATE AREA-WIDE MAY
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FOG AND WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT PATCHY OCCURRENCES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
IS NOT EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN OFFSHORE AND A DRYING TREND ENSUES.
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST STILL
LOOKS GOOD AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AN EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION JUST AS THE FORECAST PERIOD STARTS. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE MID-LEVELS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY BUT WILL BRING LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH PW WATERS INCREASING ONLY TO .75
INCHES AND NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY AS THE WARM AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL PUSH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATER
MONDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A DEEP CYCLONE DEVELOPS OUT WEST WITH AN
UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
THE AMPLITUDE WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. THIS FLOW ALLOWS 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF WELL OVER TEN DEGREES C TO ADVECT/DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SEEMS A GOOD BET HIGHS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 70S ALL THREE DAYS BUT SOME SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP WHICH WOULD
COMPLICATE THE MATTER ALONG THE COAST. AS FOR THE FRONT...CONTINUED
TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS AS THE MID LEVEL FORCING IS WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY AS OF YET TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER BUT CONSIDERING STRONG WIND FIELDS THE TYPICAL
GUSTY SHOWERS...WHEN THE TIME COMES MAY SUFFICE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY DUE TO LOW CIGS AND
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...MULTIPLE BUOYS INDICATE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ABOUT 5-8 KT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED EAST OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH OVER THE CAPE FEAR-SURF CITY WATERS...BUT THE TROUGH WILL
KICK EAST OF THIS AREA SHORTLY TAKING THOSE STRONGER SOUTH WINDS
OFFSHORE. A LIGHTER W/NW WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DISCUSSION
FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING FOLLOWS...

THE COASTAL TROUGH HAS ADVANCED WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE THIS EVENING. MODERATE SE WINDS
WILL SEE A SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
GENERALLY 2-3 FEET EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...CLEARING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM...WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE WATERS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING WIND SPEEDS RUNNING LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE A RATHER TRANQUIL 2 FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF TEN
KNOTS OR LESS. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INLAND SOME SEA
BREEZE ACCELERATION NEAR THE COAST CAN BE EXPECTED. LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY SPEEDS PICK UP DRAMATICALLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY MAY JUST PASS THE WATERS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH DIRECTION VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM TEPID VALUES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY TO WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MONDAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA/MJC
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA/RAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1132 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

LARGE PRECIP SHIELD MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS MOVING FROM
THE WESTERN CWA INTO THE EAST TOWARDS MORNING. A FEW SPOTS RIGHT
ON THE CANADIAN BORDER HAVE DROPPED TO 32...BUT THE REST OF THE
CWA STILL IS WELL ABOVE FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF SOME
MIXED PRECIP COMING IN FOR THE FAR NORTH LATER TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH CIGS IN THE 5000-10000 FT RANGE EVEN
AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...THEN NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. WINDS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE DOWN INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH THE FRONT...AND SOME SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ALTHOUGH WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS WILL SETTLE
DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD TOMORROW EVENING BUT CIGS WILL STAY MVFR.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

310 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY EARLY TODAY. ANOTHER...SIMILARLY WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT
WILL BRING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS /ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/ WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...A LARGE AREA OF
STRATO CU CLOUDS /OCCUPYING A FEW LAYERS/ WILL BLANKET THE REGION
WITH A BIT OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS RIDGES...AND PERHAPS JUST
ANOTHER BRIEF SHOWER OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.

LATEST RAP AND HRRRX APPEAR TO BE ON THE VERY OPTIMISTIC SIDE
CLEARING OUT THIS CLOUD AREA/ADVECTING IT EAST OF THE REGION IN
THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE NAM FCST SOUNDINGS HOLD ONTO
AREAS OF LOW CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP
IN THE LOWEST KFT AGL.

A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE VSBYS DIP TO UNDER 1SM EARLY TODAY /SUCH
AS KFIG/...BUT VSBYS IN THE 2-4SM RANGE SHOULD PREVAIL IN MOST
PLACES.

TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL VALLEY AND NRN MTNS...WHILE MILDER READINGS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SHEAR OUT TO OUR NE TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE
FOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SET UP WHICH SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS /AND SOME AREAS OF GENERALLY LIGHT FOG/
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...AND A MILDER /ALBEIT LIGHT/
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...STILL SOME 10-15 DEG WARMER THAN
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR-RECORD WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THIS
PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS FCST +20 TO +30 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY COMPLICATE
THINGS AT FIRST AND WILL ASSESS THIS RISK IN THE SHORT RANGE.

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY
MODEST LOOKING UPPER CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER THE SFC HAS DECOUPLED ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING FOR CALMING
WINDS...REDUCED CIGS AND LOW STRATOCU. EXPECT THESE TO ALLOW FOR
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z...THOUGH WITH THE SOUTH WESTERN TAF
SITES IT WILL BE INTERMITTENT. AS THE FRONT PASSES THURSDAY IT SHOULD
FINALLY HELP SCOUR OUT STABLE AMS/LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL PA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.

THE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG OVER EASTERN
AREAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WEST- SOUTHWEST
FLOW BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...AREAS OF MORNING FOG. THEN MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA NW HALF. MAINLY VFR SE.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...FROPA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

303 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS /ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/ WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE VSBYS DIP TO UNDER 1SM EARLY TODAY /SUCH
AS KFIG/...BUT VSBYS IN THE 2-4SM RANGE SHOULD PREVAIL IN MOST
PLACES.

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY MODEST LOOKING UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE
AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
NOW CROSSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD FINALLY HELP SCOUR OUT STABLE AMS/LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL PA FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS. OVERNIGHT AND THE DAY THURSDAY SHOULD START WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME FOG OVER EASTERN
AREAS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...AREAS OF MORNING FOG. THEN MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA NW HALF. MAINLY VFR SE.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...FROPA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1109 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ABOUT 20 KNOTS OF WIND...SEE VAD WINDS AT 3000 FEET...HAVE
ALLOWED MIXING OF THE DENSE FOG...AND HELP KEEP TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING THIS EVENING.

ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS SOME TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WEST. FREEZING LEVEL ABOUT 6000 FT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW...LATE AFT.

NE WIND HAS RESULTED IN MORE DENSE FOG AT AOO. MOST AREAS
SE TO NW WINDS NOW.

OTHER SITES NOT BAD...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR
A DENSE FOG OR FREEZING FOG ADVISORY.

STILL A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE...BUT BINOVC ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE HIGHS YESTERDAY BY ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES.

ALSO WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH...VAD WINDS ABOUT 20 KNOTS
AT 3000 FEET.

LINE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE TEMPERATURES. STILL 32 DEGREES AT THE RDA.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW...EARLY AFT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL ACTUALLY AVERAGE SOME
10-15 DEG WARMER THAN NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DID EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME FOR THU.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND A MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP...HIGHS TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S...STILL SOME 10-15 DEG WARMER THAN NORMAL.

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY MODEST LOOKING UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE
AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
NOW CROSSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD FINALLY HELP SCOUR OUT STABLE AMS/LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL PA FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS. OVERNIGHT AND THE DAY THURSDAY SHOULD START WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME FOG OVER EASTERN
AREAS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...AREAS OF MORNING FOG. THEN MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA NW HALF. MAINLY VFR SE.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...FROPA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

1149 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 531 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS INTO THURSDAY
AT ALL LOCATIONS...FALLING OFF BY EVENING.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM MST THURSDAY FOR SDZ003-015.

MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1138 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. KLBX...KBY
AND KPSX ARE ALL AT 1/4 MILE. 43

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015/

AVIATION...
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AND DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
SE TEXAS AT 05Z...INCLUDING VLIFR CONDITIONS ALREADY AT KLBX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. HAVE
SOME RESERVATIONS AS TO THE TYPE /FOG OR LOW CEILINGS/ AS WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE WERE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS FROM 500 TO 1000
FEET AS SEEN BY THE HGX VAD WINDS. AT LEAST LOW CEILINGS SHOULD
DEVELOP...BUT GIVEN THE FOG ALREADY IN PLACE AT LBX DECIDED TO
INSERT A TEMPO GROUP REFLECTING THE GUIDANCE TIMES FOR THE WORST
FOG VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MID AND
LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THAT AT LEAST IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND HRRR SUGGEST FOG WILL DEVELOP A BIT
LATER TONIGHT BUT KBYY AND KLBX ARE ALREADY DOWN TO A 1/4 MILE.
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM CRP AND LCH LOOK A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE TEMP INVERSION AT 900 MB LOOKS A BIT WEAKER
AND THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE VERTICAL MIXING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING A SWATH OF CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS WHICH
WILL AT LEAST BRIEFLY IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH TRENDS AND FEEL A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED
FROM ABOUT 11 PM TO 9 AM THURSDAY MORNING. WILL WAIT FOR A FEW
MORE SITES TO REPORT LOWER VISIBILITY AND ISSUE THE NPW A BIT
LATER THIS EVENING.

LASTLY...WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE CORPUS CHRISTI OFFICE FOR
PROVIDING BACK UP SERVICE FOR US TODAY. THEY WERE AWESOME. 43

CLIMATE...
ALTHO THE CALENDAR SAYS IT IS DECEMBER...IT HARDLY FEELS DECEMBER
LIKE. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AND WILL
APPROACH RECORD VALUES AT HOUSTON BUSH AND HOUSTON HOBBY. BELOW
ARE THE RECORDS FOR ALL 4 CLIMATE SITES FOR FRIDAY DEC 11TH.

SITE FCST HIGH REC HIGH NORM HIGH

BUSH IAH 82 83 2007 65
HOU HOBBY 82 82 2007 65
COL STATION 80 82 2007 63
GALVESTON 75 78 2007 64

BACK ON DEC 10TH 2008...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BROUGHT A BAND
OF SNOW TO SE TX WITH 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY EAST OF I-45.
BAYTOWN...LA PORTE AND LIBERTY ALL RECORDED 4 INCHES OF SNOW. 43

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 79 63 80 67 / 10 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 55 80 65 82 67 / 10 10 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 61 73 66 75 68 / 10 10 10 10 10

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

536 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

The main forecast concern this period will be with gusty southwest
winds today. Latest ILX sounding data indicates southwest winds
of up to around 40 kts at 1500 feet and expect some of those
stronger winds to mix down to the surface late this morning into
the afternoon hours. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 kts are expected
today with gusts approaching 35 kts in a few of the more favored
sites (BMI and CMI) thru 21z before we see winds rapidly decrease
towards 00z. VFR conditions are expected with occasional cigs of
around 20000 feet thru the morning with some decrease in the
cirrus this afternoon. Winds should continue out of a southwesterly
direction tonight with speeds in the 7 to 12 kt range at all
locations after 02z.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

Record highs for the weekend:

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
CLIMATE...Geelhart

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1038 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE 50 TO 55...HOWEVER AREAS NEAR I-94 MAY
APPROACH 60 ON SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THIS EVENING NORTH OF I-96...THEN A FEW MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR A
STEADY RAIN. IT WILL COOL OFF BEHIND THIS RAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 40.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

BASED ON LATEST RUC GUIDANCE HAVE NUDGED UP MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES TODAY TO HAVE HIGHS NEAR 60 IN SEVERAL AREAS INLAND FROM
LK MI. RECORDS FOR TODAY INCLUDE 61 AT MKG... 62 AT GRR... AND 63
AT LAN. THESE WERE ALL SET IN 1971.

ALSO INCREASED THE WIND GUSTS A TAD TO HAVE SOME GUSTS AROUND 40
MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AND WEST OF HWY
131 PER RUC 925 MB WIND SPEED PROGS... WHERE THERE IS EVEN A
SUGGESTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 45 MPH GIVEN ENOUGH MIXING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THOUGH.

LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROGS IMPLY A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLY REACHING THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON CLOUD BASES MAINLY ABOVE 12,000 FT THIS WILL PROBABLY
JUST BE VIRGA.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND COULD BRING WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS. THEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY ALSO BRING A FEW SHOWERS.

MOISTURE DEPTH WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING IS LACKING AND IT APPEARS
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR JUST SPRINKLES NORTH OF I-96. WE
WILL SEE A SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH IN MANY
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

IT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN. A WARM FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND LIFT NORTH INTO SW MI FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SHALLOW WITH THE FRONT...LEADING TO JUST CHANCE
POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONT BY SATURDAY
AND WE MAY STAY FAIRLY DRY. AREAS NORTH OF I-96 WILL PROBABLY SEE
LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING...BUT I ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS WE MAY VERY WELL GET INTO THE DRY WARM SECTOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS APPROACHING 60 ALONG I-94. NOT
BAD FOR MID DEC.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

LOOKS LIKE A MILD AND WET START TO THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A COOLING
TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ANOMALOUS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LIFT ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY SHOWS
UP...SO THE RISK FOR THUNDER IS NOT ZERO. THE HIGH RES EURO
ACTUALLY SHOWS 850 MB LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -2 DEG C 12Z SUN HERE
IN SOUTHWEST MI. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET CROSSING THIS FRONTAL
ZONE...THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ON SUNDAY WE ARE FORECASTED TO BE BETWEEN FRONTS WITH THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF STEADY MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS
SHOULD SUPPORT ON AND OFF SHOWERS.

POTENT MID LEVEL LOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DO VARY ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE SO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
THIS WILL EVOLVE. THE GFS WOULD SUPPORT A MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MONDAY
AS IT IS QUICKER WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE. WILL HOLD ONTO RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF THE
GFS ENDS UP VERIFYING.

ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST GOING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN. STILL...THIS
FEATURE WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE MONDAY. SO...OVERALL THIS FORECAST REFLECTS NOT AS
COLD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY OF
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SPREADING IN A COLDER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE THE DEPARTING WAVE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE HIGH RES EURO AND GFS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS THAT WILL TOP 25
KNOTS AT THE TAF SITES. THESE WINDS WILL ACT TO PUSH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. THIS EVENING A PERIOD OF
LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
CEILINGS WILL INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO TONIGHT...
BEFORE FINALLY DROPPING OFF TOWARD MID DAY FRIDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015

THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY MAY EVEN BE HARD TO
COME BY. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM.

A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO PASS JUST
WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS
WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF IS
PLENTIFUL AND COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY.
THE WESTERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BETTER ODDS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING TOTALS FROM EAST TO
WEST. 1-2 INCH TOTALS MAY BE COMMON BY MONDAY.

ONE THING TO CONSIDER...FROST DEPTHS ARE NON-EXISTENT AT
THIS POINT. IN ADDITION...RIVERS ARE RUNNING WELL BELOW ACTION
STAGE. WHILE SOME CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAIN EXIST...TOLERANCE FOR
HIGHER TOTALS MAY BE ABOVE WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR DECEMBER...WHEN WE
ARE OFTEN CONSIDERING A HARD SURFACE DUE TO SUB-FREEZING TERRAIN.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

529 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF THE RAIN THREAT TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THOUGHT OF A BAND OF
RAIN MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE CURRENT HRRR AS WELL. WILL
MOVE A LIKELY POP BAND ACROSS THE AREA...GENERALLY 15Z-18Z OVER
EASTERN MN AND THEN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI AFTER THAT. DOESNT LOOK
LIKE MUCH RAIN...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. PTYPE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE WITH WARM BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE.
SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT. BETTER PRESSURE
RISES DROP SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST MN INTO IOWA DURING THE
MORNING...SO STRONGER WINDS WILL BE FELT THERE. THE GFS IS
STRONGER WITH THE SURGE WITH THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD INCREASE WINDS AGAIN OVER THE WEST LATE
AS CAA DEVELOPS.

VERY MILD START OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH WHERE SUNSHINE PEAKS THROUGH
FROM TIME TO TIME. NOT QUITE RECORD TERRITORY BUT CLOSE. COLDER AIR
LAGS WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING IN TONIGHT...POSSIBLY WITH
LOWER STRATOCUMULUS. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FAR THAT MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST WITH TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES PRECIPITATION CHANCES
PRETTY MUCH EVERY OTHER DAY...AS A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS AND
ALSO ALSO FOSTERS THE CONTINUANCE OF MILD TEMPERATURES.

EYES THIS MORNING ARE ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE A TIGHTLY
WOUND LOW IS OBSERVED ENTERING WASHINGTON STATE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. LEESIDE SURFACE CYCLONGENESIS IS INDUCED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT LIFTS ACROSS IOWA. EXPECT TO
SEE A BAND OF SNOW /POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN/ DEVELOPING EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MN. ASSOCIATED ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT...A
DUSTING AT MOST.

THE NEXT WAVE AND SURGE OF PV ADVECTION ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME
WHICH COULD KEEP THE MAJORITY THE MPX AREA DRY. HAVE INCLUDED
20-30 POPS NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NOSES FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE INTO MO/IA/MN. AS EXPECTED...THE 12.00Z ECMWF
CONTINUES TO FEATURE A MAINLY WARM/LIQUID SYSTEM...KEEPING NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SNOW-FREE. MEANWHILE...THE 12.06Z GFS
PAINTED WARNING-CRITERIA FROM SOUTHWEST INTO WEST/NORTH CENTRAL
MN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. FEEL A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF IS A BETTER
ROUTE TO GO...GIVEN RECENT SYSTEMS AND MODEL TRENDS. DO INCLUDE
0.5-2.0 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST
AREA...BUT HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THE TWIN CITIES WILL ESCAPE
A MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST...A STRONG SURFACE SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY THE
MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TIME
AROUND WE LOOK A LITTLE COLDER AND THE LOW A BIT DEEPER...SO A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A PROLONGED STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER...TEMPS LOOK TO RETREAT
BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

TIMING OF THE BAND OF RAIN IS THE MAIN FOCUS EARLY. THEN POSSIBLE
MVFR CIGS DROPPING IN LATER TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN
BAND MOVING OVER WESTERN AREAS 13Z-16Z AND OVER EASTERN MN 16Z-19Z
AND LATER INTO WESTERN WI. SHOULD BE 2-3 HOUR DURATION....MAINLY
EAST. MAY GO BRIEFLY MVFR IN THE BAND BUT MAIN SHOT OF MVFR CIGS
COMING IN FROM NW TO SE AFTER 00Z FRI. THIS MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
GUSTY AROUND 25KTS POSSIBLE OUT WEST. SHOULD DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT.

KMSP...
EXPECT RAIN BAND 16Z-1830Z LOCALLY. BRIEF VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH PASSAGE. MAY SEE MVFR CIGS
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z FRI AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH WIND EARLY BECOMING MORE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND GUSTY AT TIMES. SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI NITE...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR -RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR -RA/-SN POSSIBLE. WINDS NE 10-15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

415 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF THE RAIN THREAT TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES PRECIPITATION CHANCES
PRETTY MUCH EVERY OTHER DAY...AS A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS AND
ALSO ALSO FOSTERS THE CONTINUANCE OF MILD TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG A
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN MN BY 12Z...REACH EASTERN MN BETWEEN 15Z-18Z...AND IMPACT
OUR WESTERN WI LOCATIONS AROUND 17Z-20Z. BRIEF VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO
20-25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT.

KMSP...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 14-18Z...AND
BRIEF VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY
GUSTING ABOVE 20 KTS THROUGH SUNSET.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDS NE 10-15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ADL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

910 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RESIDE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PUSH OF WARMER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT A HALF BAD DECEMBER DAY. TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FAIRLY STIFF BREEZE WILL NOT MAKE IT FEEL AS
WARM. OTHER THAN ANY LINGERING FOG BURNING OFF...THE DAY WILL
FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT SOME STRATUS WILL BE SPREADING NORTH FROM CENTRAL OH
AND FILLING IN OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. A GOOD
WEDGE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TIMED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF FROM YESTERDAY.
GENERALLY LOWER AND MID 50S.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FOR TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE
ACROSS THE EAST HALF BUT LIKELY NOTHING MEASURABLE. MOISTURE IS
LACKING THROUGH THE COLUMN BUT A LITTLE LIFT MIGHT GIVE US SOME
VIRGA/SPRINKLES. THIS WILL BE THE LAST IN A SHORT SERIES OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN SYSTEMS WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. WINDS
WILL STAY UP TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE MILD...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
OUR TYPICAL HIGHS...LOWER/MID 40S.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/FOUR
CORNERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AMPLIFYING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE GULF WILL OPEN UP AND MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD. ONE SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH A WARM FRONT ARRIVES
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY UPPER 40S/AROUND 50. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENING STARTS THE PERIOD OF PRECIP CHANCES. MOISTURE
STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH...BUT INCREASING. THE LIFT WITH THE WARM
FRONT AND GENERAL UPGLIDE INTO SATURDAY MAY YIELD A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. BY LATER SATURDAY HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SIGNIFICANTLY
AND WE WILL BE PLANTED WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND OUR PRECIP
CHANCES DECREASE. BY SATURDAY H8 TEMPS WILL BE UP AROUND 8C WITH
ANOTHER PUSH OF WARM AIR ON OUR DOORSTEP. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
FLIRTING WITH MID 60S. LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE PLENTIFUL.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR RECORD WARMTH STILL ON TRACK TO START THE EXTENDED. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
CURLS NORTHEAST AND MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 00Z MODELS
HAVE HELD ONTO THE SLOWER TIMING THAT HAS BEEN THE TREND OVER THE
LAST 48 HOURS WHICH PLACES THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR ON
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY ALSO BE DRY WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN NW OHIO. A DRY LAYER OF AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA. CIRRUS
AND SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
SOME FILTERED SUN IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY ALL RANGE FROM 60-65 AT THE CLIMATE SITES.

RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS STILL EXHIBIT SOME SPREAD WITH
REGARD TO TRACK AND TIMING WITH THE GFS STILL ON THE FASTER END OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE DEEPEST LOW. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
STRONG IN ERIE PA ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ON MONDAY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO DEPART QUICKLY TO THE NE ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH POST FRONTAL HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL DROP BY 20+ DEGREES...THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL
FINALLY DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO TAFS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO WITH THIS
PACKAGE. A LARGE AREA OF FOG/STRATUS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY EXPANDING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO.
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 300-600 FOOT RANGE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES AND SOME AREAS OF FOG. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR INDICATE
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REACH MFD/CAK/YNG AND CLE BETWEEN 12-15Z. CLE IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND THERE IS
A SLIM CHANCE THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT MAKE IT. KEPT THE IFR OUT
OF TOL/FDY BUT THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE IT WILL REACH THESE SITES.
THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND CLOUDS WILL
ATTEMPT TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AT MANY SITES AS WELL WHICH SHOULD TO BREAK APART THE
CLOUD DECK.

THE CLOUD FORECAST WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE INTO TONIGHT AS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO EITHER FILL BACK IN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET OR
WAIT FOR THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 3-9Z WINDOW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY INTO FRI FOR NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...THEN RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...MAINLY EAST END OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING BUT ONLY FOR A
FAIRLY SHORT WINDOW SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET DAY SHIFT RE-
EVALUATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH
A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND PULL A
STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS AND
MAY REACH GALES ON A PORTION OF THE LAKE.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

715 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT A HALF BAD DECEMBER DAY. TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FAIRLY STIFF BREEZE WILL NOT MAKE IT FEEL AS
WARM. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FOG HERE AND THERE...NOTHING
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. OTHER THAN THE FOG BURNING OFF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT SOME STRATUS WILL BE WORKING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL OH AND FILLING IN OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. A GOOD WEDGE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TIMED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF FROM
YESTERDAY. GENERALLY LOWER AND MID 50S. ONLY SKY COVERAGE AND
HOURLY TEMPS TWEAKED WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY INTO FRI FOR NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...THEN RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

753 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY EARLY TODAY. ANOTHER...SIMILARLY WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE EXPANDED THE FOG ADVISORY AS THE CLOUDS CLEARED OUT JUST IN
TIME TO ALLOW ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR THAT FOG HAS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.

FOR CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...EMPLOYED A BLEND OF THE LATEST
OPTIMISTIC RAP AND HRRRX DATA WITH THE MORE CLOUDY LOOKING NAM.

TEMPS WILL RISE GRADUALLY FROM THEIR DAYBREAK START IN THE UPPER
30S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND NRN MTNS...AND MILDER
READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SHEAR OUT TO OUR NE TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE
FOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SET UP WHICH SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS /AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH
AND EAST/ DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES
THIS MORNING EXPECT VSBYS OF 1/4SM OR LESS AT TIMES AT UNV...AOO
AND LNS. MDT WILL BE IFR THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
IMPROVING LATE THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS RATHER SHALLOW SO ONCE THE
SFC DECOUPLES IT SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE. ELSEWHERE BFD AND IPT ARE
MVFR AND WILL IMPROVE BY 14Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
AND PATCHY FOG OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE WEST- SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...AREAS OF MORNING FOG. THEN MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA NW HALF. MAINLY VFR SE.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...FROPA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-
010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056-
057-059-063>066.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

749 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY EARLY TODAY. ANOTHER...SIMILARLY WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FOG ADVISORY AS THE CLOUDS CLEARED OUT JUST IN
TIME TO ALLOW ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR THAT FOG HAS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.

FOR CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...EMPLOYED A BLEND OF THE LATEST
OPTIMISTIC RAP AND HRRRX DATA WITH THE MORE CLOUDY LOOKING NAM.

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY
MODEST LOOKING UPPER CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER THE SFC HAS DECOUPLED ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING FOR CALMING
WINDS...REDUCED CIGS AND LOW STRATOCU. EXPECT THESE TO ALLOW FOR
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z...THOUGH WITH THE SOUTH WESTERN TAF
SITES IT WILL BE INTERMITTENT. AS THE FRONT PASSES THURSDAY IT SHOULD
FINALLY HELP SCOUR OUT STABLE AMS/LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL PA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...AREAS OF MORNING FOG. THEN MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA NW HALF. MAINLY VFR SE.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...FROPA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-
010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056-
057-059-063>066.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

554 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LARGE AREA OF STRATO CU CLOUDS /OCCUPYING A FEW LAYERS/ WILL
BREAK UP DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE AREAS OF CLEARING AND
TIGHT TEMP/DWPT SPREADS OF LESS THAN 2 DEG F ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WIND /AND
DECREASING WIND ALOFT THIS MORNING/ TO CREATE AREAS OF 1/2SM TO
1SM VALLEY FOG. THE FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE...AND EVEN QUITE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE A BRIEF...BUT SOLID
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF CLEARING.

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR 5 OF OUR FAR SE
COUNTIES...WHERE SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING CONDITIONS BELOW
1/4SM.

FOR CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...EMPLOYED A BLEND OF THE
LATEST OPTIMISTIC RAP AND HRRRX DATA WITH THE MORE CLOUDY LOOKING
NAM.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY
MODEST LOOKING UPPER CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER THE SFC HAS DECOUPLED ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING FOR CALMING
WINDS...REDUCED CIGS AND LOW STRATOCU. EXPECT THESE TO ALLOW FOR
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z...THOUGH WITH THE SOUTH WESTERN TAF
SITES IT WILL BE INTERMITTENT. AS THE FRONT PASSES THURSDAY IT SHOULD
FINALLY HELP SCOUR OUT STABLE AMS/LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL PA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...AREAS OF MORNING FOG. THEN MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA NW HALF. MAINLY VFR SE.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...FROPA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-
064>066.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

1026 AM MST THU DEC 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST THU DEC 10 2015

A "DIRTY" UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY...CAUSING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
TO WARM SLIGHTLY AND THE MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MTN TOP FLOW
TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE FRONT
RANGE AROUND MIDDAY. MEANWHILE BNDRY LAYER WINDS HAVE GONE SELY
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT RACED SEWRD ACRS NERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS
MORNING.LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A CLOCKWISE SHIFT TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER MANY OF THESE SAME MODELS SHOW GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING OVER AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS NOT LONG AFTER 19Z
APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE
FOOTHILLS. HRRR AND WRF SFC WIND FIELDS INDICATE A SURGE IN
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
THE 20-30KT RANGE AT THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS AROUND 21Z TODAY.
RAP EVEN SHOWS A BURST OF WESTERLY WINDS REACHING DIA AND AURORA
AROUND MID-AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CAUSE A SUDDEN JUMP IN
TEMPERATURE. AT PRESENT TIME...TEMPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 4 TO 10 DEGS F BEHIND
THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT AS MUCH AS 10 DEGS F
WARMER OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND DAYTIME TEMPS
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MST THU DEC 10 2015

WINDS HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE WAVE
AMPLIFICATION WENT AWAY AND THE FLOW ALOFT HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH.
SURGE OF WIND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER NOW...BUT WINDS ARE ALSO STARTING TO DECREASE THERE. WE
NEVER HAD A REALLY GOOD AMPLIFIED WAVE...THE TROUGH STRUCTURE WAS
NOT VERY SHARP SO THERE WAS NOT A STRONGLY SUBSIDENT AREA AS THE
JET WENT BY...BUT THERE WERE A COUPLE OF LITTLE BURSTS OF WIND
NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD
DECREASE A BIT TODAY...AND MORE SO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE SEE-
SAWING WITH SOME COOLING ON THE PLAINS AS THE WINDS LET UP THIS
MORNING...WHILE WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE
TO NEAR YESTERDAYS NEAR RECORD NUMBERS THIS AFTERNOON. RAISED
HIGHS TODAY JUST A LITTLE...THEN WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT THE
LOWS WILL BE COOLER. CLOUD COVER STILL COMING AND GOING...BUT I
DID LOWER THE LOWS TONIGHT A LITTLE EXPECTING MORE COOLING THAN WE
HAVE HAD THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH STARTS TO EASE INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.
LEFT SOME POPS...BUT OVERNIGHT SNOW WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MST THU DEC 10 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
STATE ON FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN COLORADO IN THE AFTN. ZONE 31 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SNOW ON FRIDAY...BUT SNOW WILL START TO DEVELOP IN THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTN. BY LATE IN THE DAY THE MDLS SHOW A 150 KT
JET OVER NORTHWESTERN CO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THIS UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS INTO SRN AND ERN CO BY 00Z SATURDAY.
THE MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE SOME ENHANCED BANDED SNOWFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT...IN PARTICULAR ZONES 31 AND 33. ALONG THE URBAN
CORRIDOR...NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW LOW LEVEL NELY
UPSLOPE DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DEEPENING
MOISTURE/UPSLOPE TO 675 MB 03-06Z. NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
IN THE EVENING WITH THE WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES...BUT COULD SEE
SOME IN THE GRASSY AREAS BY LATE EVENING. THE FOCUS FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL APPEARS TO BE JACKSON AND LARIMER COUNTIES AND
MAYBE WELD AS WELL...WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF JET DYNAMICS
AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL BE. QG ASCENT GENERATED BY THE MDLS
STRONGEST 06-12Z SATURDAY...WITH DECREASING ASCENT IN THE AFTN AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...MAYBE 6-12 INCHES PRIMARILY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. SINCE THIS IS MORE THIRD/FOURTH PERIOD WILL LET THE DAY
SHIFT HOIST IF NEED BE. ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR...AREAS NORTH OF
A FT COLLINS TO GREELEY LINE APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. COULD SEE 2 TO 6 INCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO SNOW BUT THE WIND COULD AGAIN INCREASE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND/SNOW TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST THU DEC 10 2015

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 7-14KT AT KDEN AND KAPA WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 15KTS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS AT BOTH
AIRPORTS COULD GO WESTERLY AT 15-22KTS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON WITH
A WIND SURGE OFF THE FOOTHILLS. THEN BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL
SOUTHERLY WIND WITH DARKNESS. AT KBJC NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE PRESENT TIME SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
WESTERLY COMPONENT AROUND MIDDAY WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN THE
25-35KT RANGE THROUGH 00Z/FRI. SHOULD THEN SEE A DROP OFF IN
SPEEDS AND A SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

234 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHER CLOUDINESS WILL BE ABOUT THE ONLY SKY
COVER REMAINING ONCE LOSS OF SFC HEATING OCCURS AT DUSK. VERY
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND SOME RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE WL LEAD TO SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF GROUND FOG GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF METRO ORLANDO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE A PLEASANT EVENING CAN BE EXPECTED LOWS IN
THE U50S TO LWR 60S.

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE GULF STREAM ASCD WITH A HIGHER LL
ENVIRONMENTAL LAPSE RATE ALONG WITH SOME PROXIMITY TO A WEAK SFC
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA TO SOME
DEGREE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LCL ARW3 ALONG WITH HRRR GUIDANCE
WANTS TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME COASTAL SHOWERS AND WL KEEP A SMALL
MENTION FOR MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COS TONIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER BREAKUP OF PATCHY
MORNING FOG. RELATIVELY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND AMPLE SUN WL PUSH
HIGHS TO AROUND 80 WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIP.

SAT-SUN...
WEEKEND WEATHER LOOKS QUIET AS THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM
LIFTS NE AND MERGES WITH THE NRN STREAM OVER THE W ATLC. AS IT
DOES...IT WILL DRAG A BROAD HI PRES RIDGE FROM THE GOMEX ACRS FL AND
INTO THE MID ATLC COASTAL WATERS. THE PASSAGE OF THE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN A TIGHT H85-H50 SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER CENTRAL FL THAT
WILL EFFECTIVELY LIMIT VERTICAL MOTION TO 10KFT OR LESS.

WINDS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR WILL RESPOND BY VEERING TO THE E...BCMG
RATHER BRISK SAT NIGHT THRU SUN AS THE RIDGE INTERACTS WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES NE OF THE BAHAMAS. AS SUCH FLOW REGIMES TAP AN
OCEAN MODIFIED AIRMASS... THEY USUALLY GENERATE LOW END PRECIP
CHANCES AS THEY PUSH LCL POCKETS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ONSHORE...
WHERE THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE SQUEEZES THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE
FORM OF LOW TOPPED SHRAS. SUCH SHRAS RARELY HAVE ANY SIG IMPACT AS
THEIR LIMITED DEPTH PREVENTS ANY SIG MOISTURE LOADING...QPF AMNTS
USUALLY BLO 0.10".

MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE FCST ESSENTIALLY DRY THRU THE DAY ON SUN WITH
POPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...THEN MINIMAL POPS (AOB 20PCT) SUN NIGHT
AS WINDS VEER TO THE S/SE AHEAD OF A NEW FRONTAL BNDRY AND FORCES
THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO LIFT FROM THE H85 LVL TO
ARND H70. HARD TO ARGUE AS RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AND AIRMASS QUITE
HOSTILE TO SHRA FORMATION: THERMAL CAPPING THRU THE H85-H70 LYR IS
QUITE STRONG WITH LAPSE RATES RUNNING BLO 5.0C/KM AND AS LOW AS
2.5C/KM ACRS THE I-4 CORRIDOR...LIMITED LCL AND UPSTREAM MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 80-90PCT THRU THE H100-H85
LYR...DECREASING TO BLO 35PCT THRU THE H85-H50 LYR.

A SUBSIDING AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS A SOLID 10-15F ABV CLIMO AVG. AFTN MAXES IN THE U70S/L80S ALNG
THE COAST...L/M80S INTERIOR. MRNG MINS IN THE M60S/L70S ALNG THE
COAST...L/M60S INTERIOR.

EXTENDED...(PREV DISC)
THE 00Z MODELS SHOW WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING THE AREA
MON. A SQUALL LINE MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SUN
NIGHT...BUT PRE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR MID DECEMBER...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER. CONSENSUS POPS CONTINUE LOW WITH
THIS FRONT...AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL
OUT AND LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK...SO A PERIOD OF STRUNG OUT
LOW POPS MAY OCCUR AGAIN. ALSO...WITH LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE
INDICATED...WE WILL CONTINUE HAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...
NO OBSTRUCTIONS TO CIG AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH 11/07Z. LCL
GROUND FOG DEVELOPING FM MLB-FPR-SUA AND INLAND TO ISM/MCO WL
BRING LCL VSBYS NR 3-5SM AND SCT006-010 FM 11/08Z-11/13Z. VFR
CONDS AREA WIDE AFT 11/13Z.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN PROXIMITY TO THE WATERS WL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DECREASE IN WV HGHTS WITH FAVORABLE CONDS
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS DURING FRIDAY. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3 TO 4 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.

SAT-SUN...
GENTLE TO MODERATE ERLY BREEZE ON SAT BCMG MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE
ON SUN AS A BROAD HI PRES RIDGE LIFTS FROM THE GOMEX TO THE MID ATLC
COAST INTERACTS WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROF NE OF THE BAHAMAS. WIND
VEERING TO SE BY LATE SUN AFTN...THEN DIMINISHING TO A GENTLE TO
MODERATE SRLY BREEZE OVERNIGHT AS A NEW COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE PANHANDLE/ERN GOMEX. SEAS 3-5FT SAT BUILDING TO 5-7FT
SAT NIGHT...THEN UP TO 6-8FT OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK SUN MRNG.

MON-MON NIGHT...
FRONTAL TROF WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL FL...REACHING THE VCNTY OF CAPE
CANAVERAL/TAMPA BAY AFT MIDNIGHT TUE MRNG. WINDS VEERING TO W/SW
THRU THE DAY WHILE DIMINISHING TO A LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE...BCMG
N/NW AFT SUNSET. SEAS 4-6FT DIMINISHING TO 3-5FT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...
HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL BUILD E AND FORCE WINDS TO
VEER FROM A LIGHT NRLY BREEZE TO A LIGHT ERLY BREEZE THRU THE
DAY...THEN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SE OVERNIGHT. FRONTAL BNDRY WILL STALL
IN THE VCNTY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY DAYBREAK TUE BEFORE RETREATING
BACK TO THE N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT. SEAS 2-4FT SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 57 78 63 78 / 0 0 10 10
MCO 58 82 62 83 / 0 0 10 0
MLB 64 79 67 81 / 10 0 10 0
VRB 62 80 66 81 / 10 0 10 0
LEE 57 81 61 82 / 0 0 10 0
SFB 58 82 62 82 / 0 0 10 0
ORL 60 81 63 82 / 0 0 10 0
FPR 62 80 66 81 / 10 0 10 0

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1200 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

Will update the forecast today for more cloud cover especially
into early afternoon. Also nudged up high temperatures a bit with
most areas reaching low to mid 60s and mildest in Jacksonville
which currently is up to 61F. Strong SSW winds of 15-25 mph and
gusts of 25-35 mph to diminish to 10-15 mph and gusts to around
20 mph toward sunset. Strong 990 mb low pressure over nw WI with a
cold front over central IA into NW MO late this morning. Front to
push into central IL during mid/late afternoon with ssw winds
veering more WSW and front to come through dry. Low clouds over
central and northern IA into MN to pass mostly north of central IL
later this afternoon and evening.

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

Strong 990 mb low pressure over northern WI with cold front over
eastern IA into NW MO to give strong SSW winds of 15-25 kts with
gusts of 25-35 kts into mid afternoon. Winds to veer sw during the
afternoon and diminish to 10-15 kts late this afternoon with gusts
15-20 kts as weakening front moves into central IL. Winds weaken
further to 5-10 kts between 00-03Z early this evening. Winds then
veer SSE 7-11 kts Friday morning as tight pressure gradient today
relaxes tonight and Friday morning. Broken high clouds 20-25k ft
along with few-sct lower clouds to occur into early evening and
then return Friday morning.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

Record highs for the weekend:

Location Today Friday Saturday Sunday
Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13
-------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Bloomington 65 (1918) 65 (1949) 65 (1896) 63 (1975)
Champaign 65 (1889) 64 (1949) 62 (1991) 64 (1975)
Charleston 65 (1918) 66 (1931) 67 (1949) 64 (1991)
Decatur 66 (1918) 65 (1949) 65 (1929) 66 (1975)
Effingham 69 (1971) 60 (1979) 67 (1929) 65 (1991)
Lincoln 65 (1918) 66 (1949) 64 (1929) 64 (1975)
Peoria 64 (1889) 64 (1949) 62 (1991) 63 (1975)
Springfield 67 (1889) 67 (1949) 64 (1929) 67 (1948)

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...07
CLIMATE...Geelhart

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1045 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

Record highs for the weekend:

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
CLIMATE...Geelhart

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

116 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR A
STEADY RAIN. IT WILL COOL OFF BEHIND THIS RAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 40.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

LOOKS LIKE A MILD AND WET START TO THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A COOLING
TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL
GUST TO AROUND 30 KTS AT TIMES WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT KMKG. WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER
SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WILL INHIBIT FOG FROM FORMING.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO TONIGHT...
BEFORE FINALLY DROPPING OFF TOWARD MID DAY FRIDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 116 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015

RAINFALL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. WHILE HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GOING INTO
SUNDAY...SOME QUESTIONS LINGER ON FLOODING POTENTIAL.

GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN PLACING A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDWEST BY THIS COMING WEEKEND. MOISTURE
VALUES...THAT ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR DECEMBER...SURGE NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BY LATE SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...THE BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS MAY FALL IN THE
PERIOD FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

CURRENT SUGGESTIONS ARE THAT THE AREA AVERAGES WILL BE SOMEWHERE
IN THE REALM OF 1-2 INCHES BY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN QUESTION
IS THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE STORM TRACK. THE NATURE OF THE
WISCONSIN TRACKS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DRY SLOT...AT LEAST SOME
PORTION OF THE CWA. ALSO...GIVEN THE THAWED SOIL...RECENT DRY
PERIOD AND...A LONGER DURATION RAIN (24+ HOURS) MAY NOT BE MUCH
MORE THAN A WEEKEND HINDERANCE. RIVER RESPONSES WITH THIS NATURE
OF RAIN MAY BE SLOW...GRADUAL AND WITHIN BANKS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1155 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR A
STEADY RAIN. IT WILL COOL OFF BEHIND THIS RAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 40.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

LOOKS LIKE A MILD AND WET START TO THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A COOLING
TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO TONIGHT...
BEFORE FINALLY DROPPING OFF TOWARD MID DAY FRIDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015

THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY MAY EVEN BE HARD TO
COME BY. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1201 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF THE RAIN THREAT TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES PRECIPITATION CHANCES
PRETTY MUCH EVERY OTHER DAY...AS A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS AND
ALSO ALSO FOSTERS THE CONTINUANCE OF MILD TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MN
CURRENTLY...ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS AND VIS. THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE EAST AND MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAIN BAND...BUT THERE
IS AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IN NORTH DAKOTA THAT IS PRIME TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FA
TONIGHT. THE STRATUS WILL LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
UNDER THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE MAIN LOW TO OUR EAST.

KMSP...RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING AROUND 1930-2000Z. RECENTLY...CIGS
HAVE LIFTED ABOVE 017 AND MAY INDEED STAY ABOVE THIS NEXT HOUR OR
TWO UNTIL VFR CIGS COME BACK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAIN BAND.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI NITE...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR -RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR -RA/-SN POSSIBLE. WINDS NE 10-15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SPD
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

347 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEATHER CONCERNS INCLUDING FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...RECORD WARMTH AND WILDFIRE
DANGER ON FRIDAY...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WILL MONITOR FOR FOG
POTENTIAL...MAINLY EAST OF A MARIETTA TO ARDMORE TO SHAWNEE
LINE...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL NEAR A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE DENSE WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER
1/4 MILE. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOG
DEVELOPMENT...SO ADDED MENTION. NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR/EXPAND. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO...STILLWATER...AND PONCA CITY AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY THE FOG AS WELL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.

WENT WITH THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA DUE TO LIGHT WINDS....LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN MOST
LOCATIONS...AND ONLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE. WENT TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE EXCEPT EAST OF I-35 WHERE MORNING FOG/CLOUDS MAY HAMPER
HEATING A BIT. THE 80 DEGREE MARK WILL LIKELY BE EXCEEDED IN PARTS
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN IF
IT IS THICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. KEPT MENTION OF FOG AND DRIZZLE NEAR ATOKA AND DURANT
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. FOG MAY FORM ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE DENSE AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS MAY KEEP THE AIR SLIGHTLY MIXED NEAR THE GROUND.

SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES...FOG...AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THOUGH MOST OF
THE DAY COULD BE RAINFREE DUE TO STRONG CAPPING. IF STORMS
FORM...THEY WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL UP TO QUARTERS
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER STEEP 7 TO 8 C/KM. APPEARS
THE GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THINK CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT HEATING...SO WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE HIGHS.

LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE MID/UPPER LOW APPROACH.
FIRST STORMS MAY FORM NEAR THE DRYLINE TOWARDS SUNSET SATURDAY IN
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS...THEN ORGANIZE INTO A
SQUALL LINE...PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. FIRST STORMS
WOULD HAVE A CHANCE OF BEING DISCRETE AND SUPERCELLULAR DUE TO THE
VERY STRONG SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN
HAZARD...ESPECIALLY IF PARTIAL CLEARING AND SURFACE HEATING OCCUR.
POCKETS OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH MESOVORTICES ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
COULD OCCUR. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY QUESTIONABLE
AS CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. TORNADO
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET AN INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL IN
AN HOUR OR TWO WHICH COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING IN A FEW
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA...WHILE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT BRINGS DRY
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. KEPT A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW WHICH WOULD PUSH THE CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO
KANSAS. ACCUMULATING SNOW SEEMS UNLIKELY EVEN IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
BE TOO WARM.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...A DRY AND COLDER WEATHER PATTERN IS
FORECAST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW
AVERAGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

MBS

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...LOW HUMIDITY...
ABUNDANT FUELS TO BURN....AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WINDS APPEAR TO BE BELOW 20 MPH
TO KEEP RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM OCCURRING.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. HERE ARE THE RECORDS.

OKLAHOMA CITY...75 DEGREES SET IN 1939
WICHITA FALLS...79 DEGREES SET IN 1929

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 38 72 53 67 / 0 0 10 30
HOBART OK 38 77 48 67 / 0 0 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 39 79 55 69 / 0 0 10 30
GAGE OK 38 77 39 65 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 38 72 51 66 / 0 0 10 40
DURANT OK 48 71 62 68 / 0 0 20 70

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06/17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

915 AM PST THU DEC 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...LAST NIGHT FEATURED HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS. 53 LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRED IN CURRY COUNTY...23
IN COOS COUNTY...AND 12 IN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A BROAD FETCH OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON
THE THE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...PUSHING TOWARDS THE
OREGON COAST. THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT HAS BEEN CAPTURING THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND IT SUGGESTS THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY...GENERALLY FROM INTERSTATE 5 WEST TO THE COAST.

HIGHEST WIND GUSTS REGISTERED AT 70 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON...AND 40 TO 60 MPH AT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. EAST SIDE GUSTED TO 60 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME
TODAY...GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA FROM THE
CASCADES WEST...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY. EAST SIDE WINDS WILL TAKE
MORE TIME TO DIMINISH BELOW CRITERIA.

RAINFALL RANGED FROM A HALF INCH TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE COAST RANGE AND INTO
SISKIYOU COUNTY. RAINFALL WILL BE MORE SHOWERY TODAY BUT HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY OF THE SHOWERS. AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN SISKIYOU...COOS...AND CURRY COUNTIES FOR MAINLY URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS TO HIGHLIGHT THE
COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE REACHING ACTION STAGE. RIVER LEVELS
SHOULD GENERALLY STEADY SOME OR FALL TODAY WITH SNOW LEVELS
FALLING AND PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SHOWERY.

SNOW LEVELS HAVE DROPPED SHARPLY THIS MORNING AND SNOW IS FALLING
OVER THE CASCADES AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT MOSTLY ABOVE 4000 FEET...AND A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AT WSWMFR HIGHLIGHTS THIS IMPACT. OF NOTE IS THE
LATEST SREF PLUME GUIDANCE...AN INDICATOR OF CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS ON EXPOSED AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. THE LATEST AVERAGE 3-DAY
SNOWFALL FORECAST AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWS 50 INCHES OF
SNOW AT CRATER LAKE. THESE ARE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAT HAVEN`T BEEN
OBSERVED SINCE 2010...AND IF THIS OCCURS IT WILL BE VERY BENEFICIAL
FOR SNOWPACK BUT WILL CERTAINLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER
THE PASSES.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE
CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/12Z TAF CYCLE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. THERE WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CEILINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR NEAR SHOWERS...EXCEPT A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS TONIGHT. -DW

.MARINE...UPDATED 845 AM PST THURSDAY 9 DEC 2015...A DEEP LOW
CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY...BUT THESE WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE STRENGTH.
HOWEVER...GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO A PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OF 25
TO 32 FEET...THEN HEAVY SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
GALES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN WITH A FRONT ON SATURDAY THEN A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS REMAINING
HIGH AND VERY STEEP. -BPN/DW

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM PST THU DEC 10 2015/

DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE APPEARS TO HAVE
MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING THERE ARE ARE SEVERAL
LINES OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE THAT ARE PUTTING DOWN LIGHTNING AT
THIS TIME. THIS LINES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH BRIEF VERY HEAVY PRECIP EXPECTED. INSTABILITY IS
INDICATED ALMOST UP TO THE CASCADES...AND IN THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION THIS MAY LOWER SNOW DOWN TO THE WEST SIDE I-5 PASSES
BEYOND WHAT IS EXPECTE AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. A SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION AS IT SITS BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
145 KT JET FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW
TO THE CASCADES...BUT WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT WILL
WAIT UNTIL THIS ROUND PASSES BEFORE ISSUING THE NEXT ADVISORY.

THE NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ON TRACK SATURDAY
AS THE JET CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A LONGER DURATION WITH THE SAME PATTERN OF BROAD UPPER
DIVERGENCE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT BRING
STRONG VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA. WITH A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
TAP THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY HEAVY PRECIP RATES..ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH COASTAL RANGES...THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO START LOW ON SATURDAY...BUT RISE ABOVE PASS LEVELS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL COMPLICATE RUNOFFCONDITIONS
AT THE LOWER LEVEL OF SNOW COVER THAT MAY SEE A SNOW MELT
CONTRIBUTION TO THE HEAVY PRECIP RUNOFF IN WELL SATURATED SOIL
CONDITIONS. THIS MAY CAUSE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON
RECENT FIRE AREAS...AND SLUMPS ALONG HIGHWAY 101. SVEN

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029>031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET
FOR FOR ORZ029>031.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ORZ021-022-024.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET
FOR FOR ORZ025-027-028.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ083>085.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CAZ080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
FRIDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR FOR CAZ080>083.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.

NSK/SBN/DW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

906 AM PST THU DEC 10 2015

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE
CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM PST THU DEC 10 2015/

NSK/SBN/DW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

343 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY. MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE STATE.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SATELLITE SHOWS
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURNING OFF MUCH MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS.

SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WHICH WILL BE LARGELY UNEVENTFUL.

TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 509S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER SHEARING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE OFF TO OUR NORTH
OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW AS THE ENTIRE
NORTHEAST IS BASICALLY UNDER AN AREA OF RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST AREAS OF FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BECOME AN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT....BUT CENTERED MOST ON MY
SERN ZONES MORE THAN THE WIDESPREAD FOG WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EARLY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BURN OFF TO A DAY OF
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SERN
ZONES COULD TOUCH 60 WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LOOKS TO
MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR-RECORD WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THIS
PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS FCST +20 TO +30 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT PRECIP...AND
FOG MAY COMPLICATE THINGS AT FIRST AND WILL ASSESS THIS RISK IN
THE SHORT RANGE.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN PATTERN THIS
FAR OUT GIVEN VERY GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT. SW WINDS
SHOULD AID IN THE CONTINUED WARM UP ON MONDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A GOOD
DEAL OF MODEL SPREAD REGARDING MONDAY/S MAX TEMPS AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
SHIELD/PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO STAY RELATIVELY MILD FOR DECEMBER
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH A COOLDOWN TO "NEAR NORMAL"
POSSIBLE AROUND THE 18-19TH...ACCOMPANIED BY THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT PCPN.

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1PM/18Z UPDATE...

LOW CLOUD AND FOG POCKETS HAVE BECOME VERY LOCALIZED
OVER THE CENTRAL RIDGE-VALLEY AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MELT
AWAY. THE BULK OF THE SUB VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE MID AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY..BUT EVEN THERE I EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

LOCALIZED FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER MY EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
THESE WILL LIFT AND BURN OFF FRIDAY MORNING LEAVING ALL TERMINALS
VFR BY MID DAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA NW HALF. MAINLY VFR SE.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...FROPA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR.

TUE...MVFR WEST EARLY...MAINLY VFR BY AFTERNOON.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/HAGNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

111 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY. MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE STATE.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SATELLITE SHOWS
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURNING OFF MUCH MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS.

SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WHICH WILL BE LARGELY UNEVENTFUL.

TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 509S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

EARLY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BURN OFF TO A DAY OF
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SERN
ZONES COULD TOUCH 60 WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LOOKS TO
MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR-RECORD WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THIS
PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS FCST +20 TO +30 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY COMPLICATE
THINGS AT FIRST AND WILL ASSESS THIS RISK IN THE SHORT RANGE.

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

1PM/18Z UPDATE...

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA NW HALF. MAINLY VFR SE.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...FROPA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR.

TUE...MVFR WEST EARLY...MAINLY VFR BY AFTERNOON.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

246 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW)...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS
KEPT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF DAY.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. OVERALL..THE SETUP DOES NOT
LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT FROM LAST NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH FOG IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOW LEVEL LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
AREAS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
STRONGEST LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT OVERALL EXPECT MOSTLY
DRIZZLE/FOG. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NOW...BUT ONE MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT
CLEARER.

THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW BUT STALLS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
REMAIN HIGH WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THE OVERALL
GUIDANCE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...WENT ON THE HIGHER
SIDE OF FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW. IF THE FOG CLEARS OUT
BY MID-MORNING...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN ABNORMALLY WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TRANSITIONS TO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE PLAINS. IN SITU LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING
WITH MIXING LATE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO
THE LOWER 70S IN MOST VALLEY SPOTS ON SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY
AS WELL. INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP SUNDAY`S
TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW SATURDAY.

THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING THE SOUTHERLY
LLJ UP TO 40-55 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH A STABLE LAYER SHOWN IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE
CURRENT HWO ADDRESSES THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WINDS...AND A HIGH
WIND WATCH COULD BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT IF THE
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD. MODEL TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIP
SUNDAY NIGHT IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...REACHING OUR WESTERN
AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SYNOPTIC FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE
STRONG...BUT AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAK. LINEAR CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED CELLS THAT CAN TRANSPORT HIGH
WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE MAY POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT
WITH SUCH LITTLE INSTABILITY...WILL MENTION JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
MIDLEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY MORNING WILL BRING A QUICK END TO
PRECIP CHANCES...WITH NO MORE THAN A CHANCE POP EAST NECESSARY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WE REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY MILD PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THE JET STREAM STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND THE GENERAL FLOW IN THE
LOW TO MIDLEVELS RETURNS TO SW BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND A BROAD
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS IN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...WILL
START OFF THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 69 55 72 / 10 20 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 69 54 71 / 10 10 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 51 67 53 70 / 10 10 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 67 45 69 / 10 10 10 10

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

MA/DGS