Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/08/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

951 AM PST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT
RAIN RETURNS IN THE NORTH BAY WEDNESDAY THEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE BAY AREA THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG WINDS. UNSETTLED PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:34 AM PST SUNDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE BAY AREA WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
BEING REPORTED. EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL UP
IN THE SONOMA HILLS WITH 1.50-1.80 INCHES AT CAZADERO AND VENADO
GAGES. THOSE REPRESENTED THE WETTEST SPOTS WHILE MANY OF THE NORTH
BAY LOWER ELEVATIONS STILL SAW TOTALS FROM 0.25-0.75. MUCH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS FROM THE GOLDEN GATE SOUTH WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN FOR THE
SOUTH BAY. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST GRIDS SHORTLY TO CAPTURE
LATEST TRENDS BUT TODAYS EVENT IS QUICKLY ENDING/ENDED.

ONLY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOG
POTENTIAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON TOP OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WARM ADVECTION LIGHT RAINS RETURN AS EARLY AS WEDS FOR
THE NORTH BAY ONLY...IN ADVANCE OF THE THURSDAY SYSTEM.

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. MODEL
TIMING HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH 12-18Z THURSDAY FOR A STRONG
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH STRONG JET SUPPORT AND HIGH TPW...ALONG WITH
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. THIS STORM WILL BE THE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. EARLY RFC QPF NUMBERS ARE SHOWING OVER 2 INCHES IN THE
NORTH BAY WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH 0.75-1.50 PAINTED BY THE 12Z GFS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

SHOWERS TO LINGER FRIDAY IN COOL UNSTABLE UPPER TROUGH. CANADIAN
AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE 12Z
GFS HAS TURNED DRY...WILL SEE IF THATS THE OUTLIER. 12Z ECMWF WILL
BE IN SHORTLY AND GIVE US RENEWED INTEL FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATES.

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:25 AM PST SUNDAY...RAIN BEGAN TO SPREAD
INTO THE NORTH BAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHED OUR COAST. THE FRONT WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE HEAVY RAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF SONOMA COUNTY AT UKIAH.
BUT SATELLITE AND RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATE THE FRONT SOUTH OF
MENDOCINO COUNTY IS WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. AND...MODELS FORECAST
THE FRONT TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND DISSIPATE TODAY AS IT PRESSES
INLAND AND ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE NAM HAS FINALLY ADJUSTED ITS NORTH BAY QPF DOWNWARD
AND IS NOW IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS IN FORECASTING MAX RAIN
TOTALS OF SLIGHTLY MORE THAN A HALF INCH IN NORTHERN SONOMA
COUNTY. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
FURTHER SOUTH...TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN SOUTHERN NAPA
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN MARIN COUNTY...AND TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS
PRECIPITATION PEAKING IN THE NORTH BAY FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...AND REACHING SAN FRANCISCO RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. THE
HRRR ALSO INDICATES LITTLE OR NO RAIN REACHING SOUTH OF SAN MATEO
AND ALAMEDA COUNTIES TODAY. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID AFTERNOON AND THAT MOST RAIN WILL END BY THEN.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL AREAS BY THIS EVENING.

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 20N IS FORECAST
TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH H5 HEIGHTS FORECAST TO CLIMB PAST 586 DM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND MILD WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER 70S
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE
MODELS INDICATE THAT CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE WHICH WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A MOIST WSWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY. THAT MOIST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST TO SAG AS
FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTH BAY COUNTIES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH THE
COAST AND DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
SOUTH THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AS IT MOVES INLAND...DRAWING A
COOL AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA...AND RESULTING
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OVER MUCH
OF OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A COLD SYSTEM TO SWEEP IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN.

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST SUNDAY...SYSTEM GOING ACROSS WILL
KEEP RAIN AND SHOWERS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF MONTEREY
BAY. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. WINDS MOSTLY 150 TO 180 WILL
SWITCH TO MORE 200 TO 230 AFTER 03Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...RAIN FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WITH
-RA SWITCHING TO VCSH AFTER 19Z. WINDS STARING OUT 130 TO 150 BUT
WILL SWITCH TO CLOSER TO 210 AFTER 04Z. CIGS VFR MOST OF THE DAY
EXCEPT MVFR DURING ANY RAIN. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING MVFR
LATE TONIGHT AS CIGS DROP TO UNDER 020. WINDS BECOMING 240 TO 270
AFTER 20Z. -RA EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE NORTH SO REMOVED EVEN VCSH
FROM KMRY AND KSNS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

.BEACHES...AS OF 4:18 AM PST SUNDAY...A STORM SYSTEM NOW PUSHING
INTO COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA HAS GENERATED A LARGE LONG PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT
STICKING AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING. WAVES ASSOCIATED
WITH SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 17 TO 18 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF
17 TO 19 SECONDS...WITH OCCASIONAL SETS UP TO 20 FEET. THESE
HIGHLY ENERGETIC LONG PERIOD WAVES WILL PRODUCE EXCEPTIONALLY
LARGE SURF ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY NEAR DEEP WATER BREAKS SUCH
AS GHOST TREE...MARINA BEACH...MAVERICKS AND ALSO ALONG OCEAN
BEACH.

THESE LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL PUSH WATER WELL UP ONTO THE BEACH
POSSIBLY WASHING PEOPLE FROM THE BEACH INTO THE SEA. LARGE SNEAKER
WAVES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON STEEP BEACHES SUCH AS CARMEL RIVER
BEACH AND MONTARA BEACH. PLEASE DO NOT CLIMB ON ROCKS OR JETTIES
ALONG THE COAST SINCE THESE AREAS WILL ALSO BE PRONE TO SNEAKER
WAVES. THESE WAVES WILL ARRIVE IN SETS WITH LONG LULLS BETWEEN
WAVE ACTIVITY WHICH COULD GIVE BEACH VISITORS A FALSE SENSE OF
SECURITY...DRAWING THEM CLOSER TO THE WATERS EDGE. REMEMBER TO
NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE WATER AND ALWAYS KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
RAPIDLY APPROACHING WAVES.

.MARINE...AS OF 09:42 AM PST SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS A STORM SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA. A LARGE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT...PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. THIS SWELL
WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVELY LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG COASTAL
REEFS AND SAND BARS AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAR.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

934 AM PST SUN DEC 6 2015

ONLY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOG
POTENTIAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON TOP OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WARM ADVECTION LIGHT RAINS RETURN AS EARLY AS WEDS FOR
THE NORTH BAY ONLY...IN ADVANCE OF THE THURSDAY SYSTEM.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A COLD SYSTEM TO SWEEP IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN.

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:10 AM PST SUNDAY...THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGE IS SHOWING A COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. KMUX DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING RAIN SLIDING ACROSS
SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTY`S...THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY
SOUTH INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH THAN SANTA CRUZ.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND WILL BE GUSTY THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES BY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING AROUND 1400Z. MODEL GUIDANCE HASN`T
BEEN THE GREATEST WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM SO BEST GUESS AT RAIN ENDING
SHOWERS BEGINNING WILL BE AROUND 1900Z WITH SHOWERS ENDING BY
2300Z. SO FAR WINDS HAVEN`T BEEN TO IMPRESSIVE AND GUIDANCE ISN`T
GREAT TODAY SO ANTICIPATING RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
REACHING 8 TO 12 KT THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KT
THROUGH ROUGHLY 1900Z.

CONFIDENCE LOW.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY...BEST CHANCE
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. RELATIVELY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST REACHING 8 TO 12 KT IN
THE SALINAS VALLEY.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

.MARINE...AS OF 09:11 AM PST SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS A STORM SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA. A LARGE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT...PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. THIS SWELL
WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVELY LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG COASTAL
REEFS AND SAND BARS AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAR.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

419 AM PST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:25 AM PST SUNDAY...RAIN BEGAN TO SPREAD
INTO THE NORTH BAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHED OUR COAST. THE FRONT WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE HEAVY RAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF SONOMA COUNTY AT UKIAH.
BUT SATELLITE AND RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATE THE FRONT SOUTH OF
MENDOCINO COUNTY IS WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. AND...MODELS FORECAST
THE FRONT TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND DISSIPATE TODAY AS IT PRESSES
INLAND AND ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE NAM HAS FINALLY ADJUSTED ITS NORTH BAY QPF DOWNWARD
AND IS NOW IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS IN FORECASTING MAX RAIN
TOTALS OF SLIGHTLY MORE THAN A HALF INCH IN NORTHERN SONOMA
COUNTY. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
FURTHER SOUTH...TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN SOUTHERN NAPA
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN MARIN COUNTY...AND TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS
PRECIPITATION PEAKING IN THE NORTH BAY FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...AND REACHING SAN FRANCISCO RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. THE
HRRR ALSO INDICATES LITTLE OR NO RAIN REACHING SOUTH OF SAN MATEO
AND ALAMEDA COUNTIES TODAY. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID AFTERNOON AND THAT MOST RAIN WILL END BY THEN.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL AREAS BY THIS EVENING.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A COLD SYSTEM TO SWEEP IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN.

CONFIDENCE LOW.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

.MARINE...AS OF 2:50 AM PST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. A
LARGE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS TONIGHT...PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
RESULT IN EXCESSIVELY LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG COASTAL REEFS AND
SAND BARS AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAR.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 7 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 7 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 4 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 4 AM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

326 AM PST SUN DEC 6 2015

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A COLD SYSTEM TO SWEEP IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN.

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:12 PM PST SATURDAY...VFR. SE WINDS. UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER NORCAL TONIGHT THEN BROAD AND STRONG (FOR
DECEMBER) UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR/MVFR LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

1112 PM PST SAT DEC 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST TO FALL ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE GOLDEN GATE ON SUNDAY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
FROM SAN FRANCISCO SOUTHWARD. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST
FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER AND BRING HEAVIER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PST SATURDAY...THE INCOMING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS STARTING TO PUSH INLAND ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN CA
COAST THIS EVENING. IR SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FRONT...SOUTH OF ABOUT 37N...IS WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL DATA WHICH
SHOWS THE FRONT WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 18 HOURS AND ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
U.S.. PRECIPITATION TIMING HASN`T CHANGED WITH THE 00Z MODELS THAT
ARE IN THUS FAR. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTH BAY
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND REACH SAN FRANCISCO BY SUNRISE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT PRESSES SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF RAINFALL
ON SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY AROUND WATSONVILLE AND GILROY. LIGHT RAIN
MAY LINGER ALONG THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD MOSTLY END BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL...BUT IT HAS REDUCED PRECIP
TOTALS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUN. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS AS
MUCH AS AN INCH IN THE NORTH BAY...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
FORECASTING MAXIMUM NORTH BAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONLY HALF THAT
MUCH. RAIN TOTALS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
EXPECTED FROM SAN JOSE SOUTH.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE DIRTY WITH CONSIDERABLE
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS OUR REGION FROM TIME TO TIME
EARLY IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT OUR AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A PLUME OF MOIST AIR THAT WILL BE FLOWING
INTO THE PAC NW ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO SAG AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
NORTH BAY BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WARM ADVECTION PRECIP WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL THEN APPROACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND DRIVE PRECIPITATION SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER
TROUGH REACHES THE COAST IT IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BRINGING A COLDER AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.
THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:12 PM PST SATURDAY...VFR. SE WINDS. UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER NORCAL TONIGHT THEN BROAD AND STRONG (FOR
DECEMBER) UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR/MVFR LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

.MARINE...AS OF 9:12 PM PST SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
NORTH OF PIGEON POINT PRODUCING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. A LARGE LONG
PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS SUNDAY PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. THIS SWELL WILL RESULT IN
LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG COASTAL REEFS AND SAND BARS.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 3 AM

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
935 PM PST SAT DEC 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...

Frontal precip now moving inland with leading edge of the rain just
moving into the Wrn part of our CWA at 930 pm. By about midnight...
the leading edge of the rain should at least be along a RDD...RBL...STS
line. Rain expected to move into the SAC area by around 6-8 am...near
the start of the CIM. The HRRR accumulated precip shows some heavier
bands of rain from around BAB-OVE and NEwd from there into Wrn Plumas Co
where totals could equal/exceed 1.00-1.33 inches in the area of stronger
dynamics and orographics.

One thing we have adjusted this evening in the update was a little
higher PoPs in the I-80 Corridor for the Vly...and also lowering
snow levels some over the W Slope Siernev Sun morning due to the
very dry sub-cloud air mass. Dewpoints in the teens and 20s will
mean lower WBZs...and evaporative cooling at the onset of the
precip. BLU likely to start out as snow Sun morning perhaps turning to
rain/wet snow mix or light rain/drizzle later in the day. Still not
able to get significant snow accumulations out of this system and not
feeling confident in advsry level snow. This will have to be monitored/
contemplated overnite. JHM

.Previous Discussion...

A weather system is off the coast and the cold front will move
inland late tonight and Sunday morning. The system is not that
strong but could bring up to 0.40 inches of rain for the valley
and 0.25 to 1.00 inch of precipitation for the mountains. The
higher totals are expected from around Plumas County northward.
Snow levels look to start out around 4000 feet over the north to
around 5000 feet for the Western Slopes of the Sierra Nevada. The
snow levels may start out near advertised levels but should rise
during the late morning and afternoon hours. The bulk of the
system moves through in the morning and then weakens
significantly. Some lingering showers may continue into the early
evening hours...mainly over the mountains before ending. Several
inches of snow are likely below pass levels and over some of the
higher mountain highway roadways.

A couple of systems will move into the Pacific Northwest early next
week with zonal flow over Northern California. Most areas are
expected to remain dry other than the far northern sections of the
state which may get some light precipitation at times.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)

The extended forecast period looks wet and unsettled with a
significant storm system moving through Wednesday, Thursday and
into Friday. This potentially very wet system has a good Pacific
moisture plume with dynamics from a strong 150+kt jet. Models are
now in fairly good agreement with the general timing of
precipitation moving through the Coastal Range and into the
southern Cascades and northern Sacramento Valley by Wednesday
morning, then spreading across the most of the area by evening.
The heaviest precipitation looks like it will be on Thursday,
though exactly when is not clear yet due to model timing
differences. Current projections suggest snowfall amounts
exceeding 1 foot in the mountains, potentially double this over
higher peaks. Snow levels look to be around 5000 feet falling to
around 4000 feet.

Additional systems will bring the potential for more
precipitation through the rest of the week and into the weekend
with snow levels around or below 4000 feet. EK

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions over Norcal thru about 10z-12z Sun...then rapidly
deteriorating conditions to widespread MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in
RA/BR after 12z Sun as Pacific cold front moves thru the area.
LIFR conditions in RA/SN/FG over Siernev with SW winds increasing
to over 35 kts over hyr trrn after 08z Sun. Cigs/vsbys gradually
improving to VFR after 00z Mon...but low stratus/fog expected to
redevelop late Sun nite and Mon morning.

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

330 AM MST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MST SUN DEC 6 2015

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER NRN CO TODAY AND THEN BECOME MORE WNW
TONIGHT AS A WK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WYOMING. THERE WILL BE
SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT
BUT NO PCPN WILL OCCUR. HIGHS THIS AFTN OVER NERN CO WILL BE WARMER
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS WYOMING SUBSIDENCE WILL DVLP
OVER NRN CO BY MIDNIGHT AS A MTN WAVE FORMS. COMPONENT ALONG WINDS
INCREASE TO 40-45 KTS SO EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU MON MORNING IN AND
NR THE FOOTHILLS. AT THIS TIME SPEEDS SHOULD STAY JUST BLO HIGH
WIND THRESHOLD HOWEVER WILL SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 60-70 MPH RANGE IN
THE NORMAL WINDY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MST SUN DEC 6 2015

MODELS HAVE MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A JET MAXIMUM MOVES ACROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS SHOW WEAK DOWNWARD
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY DOWNSLOPING ALL FOUR PERIODS OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA. FOR MOISTURE...MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING ARE DRY...
THEN MOISTURE INCREASES SOMEWHAT MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IT IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LASTS THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. THINGS DRY OUT THEN. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW A TAD
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN CWA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. FOR POPS...THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
...AND SOME ENHANCEMENT DUE TO OROGRAPHICS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS.
WILL GO WITH MINOR POPS THERE FROM TUESDAY 06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY
06Z. CONCERNING WINDS...THERE IS A BIT OF MOUNTAINS WAVE SET MUCH
OF THE TIME. THE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS BUT NOT UP TO HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. FOR TEMPERATURES
...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S. TUESDAY`S HIGHS
ARE 0-2 C COOLER THAN MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE FLOW IS WESTERLY WITH 100 PLUS KNOTS
OF JET LEVEL WIND SPEEDS OVER THE CWA. BY FRIDAY...THE STRONG FLOW
ALOFT IS STILL OVER THE CWA...BUT IT IS SOUTHWESTERLY IN DIRECTION
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS
OVER THE WESTERN COLORADO BORDER AT 00Z FRIDAY LATE DAY. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH
18Z MID DAY SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES IN FRIDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A SNOWFALL WILL
GET MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT IT IS MANY DAYS AWAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MST SUN DEC 6 2015

WINDS WERE DRAINAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN SLY THRU
18Z. FOR THIS AFTN A WK DENVER CYCLONE IS FCST TO DVLP WITH A WK
CONVERGENCE ZN NR THE AIRPORT. THUS COULD SEE VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS DVLP BY 21Z. THE HRRR HAS THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NNW
BY 21Z THRU 00Z WHILE THE RAP KEEPS THEM SLY THRU THE AFTN. NOT SURE
WHICH WAY TO GO BUT WILL KEEP THEM SLY FOR NOW. FOR TONIGHT WINDS
WILL BE DRAINAGE.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

450 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...HI PRES RIDGE SPANNING THE ERN SEABOARD WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL TROF OVER THE FL
STRAITS/NRN BAHAMAS TO MAINTAIN A BRISK NE FLOW ACRS THE FL
PENINSULA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU THE DAY AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF OVER THE NATION`S MIDSECTION NUDGES THE RIDGE INTO THE W
ATLC WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY. THE USAF 915HZ PROFILER HAS
SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND IN THE H100-H85 WIND FIELD SINCE
07/00Z...DIMINISHING FROM 25-30KTS DOWN TO 20-25KTS.

DEEP MOISTURE OVER S FL WITH A SATURATED H100-H50 LYR ON THE 07/00Z
KMFL RAOB...PWAT VALUES ARND 2.1". RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARP
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FT MYERS TO JUST N OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. MOISTURE DECREASES
RAPIDLY TO THE N AS PREVAILING WRLY WINDS ABV H85 HAVE PUSHED DRY
MID LVL AIR INTO CENTRAL FL. PWATS DECREASE TO 1.1"-1.2" AT
KXMR/KTBW THEN TO ARND 1.0" AT KJAX...MOST OF WHICH IS TRAPPED BLO A
SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H85-H70 LYR. RADAR HAS BEEN
DETECTING BANDS OF LIGHT SHRAS PUSHING ONSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
SWD....MOST OF WHICH ARE RAINING OUT BY THE TIME THEY CROSS THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

DYNAMIC LIFTING MECHANISMS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST
24HRS AS A STRONG H30-H20 JET HAS LIFTED E OF THE CAROLINA. MID LVL
OMEGA FIELDS INDICATE A SUBSIDING AIRMASS WHILE UPR LVL DIVERGENCE
IS WEAK OR NEUTRAL. EVEN MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SUBSIDED WITH
ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THRU THE MID LVLS
CONSISTENT WITH THE OMEGA FIELDS. UPSTREAM H100-H70 MOISTURE FIELDS
REMAIN IN THE 70-90PCT RANGE...HI ENOUGH TO KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES...DECREASING TO AOB 20PCT FOR THE INTERIOR. GIVEN
THE H100-H85 FLOW AND THE DRY AIR ABV H85...PRECIP PRIMARILY WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LOW TOPPED SHRAS. GENERALLY LOW RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WITH 24HR QPF AOB 0.10"...LCLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
TREASURE COAST DUE TO TRAINING ECHOS...24HR QPF BTWN 0.25-0.50".

NO SIG CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW...TEMPS NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVIATE MORE THAN A DEG OR TWO FROM SAT. AFTN MAXES IN
THE M/U70S ALONG THE COAST AND U70S/L80S INTERIOR...MIN TEMPS L/M60S
INTERIOR WITH NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS DIPPING BLO 60F N OF I-4...
M60S/L70S ALONG THE COAST. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...SINCE THIS ONSHORE
FLOW PATTERN DVLPD THIS PAST THU...MOST COASTAL OBS SITES HAVE NOT
SEEN DAY-TO-DAY MAX/MIN TEMPS FLUCTUATE BY MORE THAN 10F.

MON-WED...INVERTED TROUGH WHICH FORMS EARLY MONDAY MORNING OFFSHORE
THE FL EAST COAST WILL LIFT OUT RAPIDLY TO THE NE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE SE STATES AND CENTRAL FL BEHIND IT.
LINGERING CHC FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT S/E...WITH
JUST A SMALL LINGERING THREAT AROUND LAKE OKEE/JUPITER TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT. RAIN CHC WILL SPREAD BACK NWD MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WED/WED
EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
LIFTS RAPIDLY NE AS WELL.

MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S..NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MON NIGHT LOOKS
TO BE THE COOLEST IN THE SHORT RANGE...IN THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR
(L50S NORTH OF I-4) WITH A 5-8F SPREAD (M-U50S VS L-M60S) OVER THE
COASTAL COS GIVEN THE SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT THERE. TUE/WED NIGHTS
U50S N/W OF I-4...L60S INLAND/WEST OF I-95...AND M-U60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

THU-SAT...ZONAL FLOW PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION
LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CTRL CONUS RESULTING
IN DOWNSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS/FL/WRN ATLC.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTH-CTRL FL THU/EARLY
FRI STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY AS IT DRIFTS EAST-NE TO OFFSHORE THE SE
ATLC SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND. THIS PORTENDS DRY/MILD CONDS THU FOLLOWED
INCREASING WARMTH/HUMIDITY FRI-SAT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...
WITH A SMALL CHC FOR SHOWERS SAT AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION...THRU 07/12Z...

SFC WNDS: THRU 06/15Z...N/NE 7-12KTS...OCNL G20KTS CSTL SITES S OF
KMLB. BTWN 06/15Z-06/23Z...E/NE ARND 13-17KTS WITH G20-22KTS. BTWN
06/23Z-0702...BCMG N/NE 6-10KTS.

VSBY/WX/CIGS: THRU 06/15Z...N OF KISM-KDAB PREVAILING CIGS BTWN
FL008-012...S OF KISM-KMLB PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL060-080 WITH BRIEF
ISOLD MVFR SHRAS. BTWN 06/15Z-06/24Z...PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL060-
080 ALL SITES...SLGT CHC MVFR -SHRAS E OF KOMN-KISM...CHC MVFR SHRAS
E OF KDAB-KOBE. BTWN 07/00Z-07/04Z...N OF KISM-KTIX CIGS BCMG IFR
BTWN FL006-009 WITH PDS OF LIFR CIGS BLO FL005...S OF KISM-KTIX
PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL040-060...SLGT CHC MVFR -SHRAS E OF KOMN-
KISM...CHC MVFR -SHRAS E OF KMLB-KOBE.

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...THOUGH
SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN AS A HI PRES
RIDGE OVER THE ERN SEABOARD SLOWLY WEAKENS. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO
IMPROVE AS THE NE FETCH SPANS THE COAST FROM FL TO THE CAROLINAS...
WHICH WHILE MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO LARGE NE SWELL THRU TONIGHT. EVEN
THIS WILL DAMPEN OUT AS WINDS DIMINISH FROM A MODERATE TO FRESH NE
BREEZE TO A LIGHT TO GENTLE N/NE BREEZE. SEAS 7-9FT NEARSHORE AND 8-
10FT OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO 5-6FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT SCA.

MON-THU...WILL LIKELY SEE BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS EARLY MONDAY AS
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...AS A SFC
LOW FORMS AND LIFTS QUICKLY NE PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN
IT AND THE HIGH BUILDING E/S IN ITS WAKE. HENCE...AFTER A BRIEF 6-9HR
PD WHERE THE SCA WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO A CAUTIONARY STMT EARLY
MON...WIND SURGE MAY WARRANT A BRIEF (~12HR) SCA LATE MON AFTERNOON
THROUGH PART OR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY
WANE FROM TUE-THU AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SEWD INTO NORTH-CTRL FL.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 76 62 73 57 / 20 20 20 0
MCO 81 61 78 56 / 10 10 10 0
MLB 79 67 75 61 / 30 30 30 10
VRB 79 69 75 63 / 40 30 40 10
LEE 79 58 76 52 / 10 10 10 0
SFB 79 61 76 55 / 10 10 20 0
ORL 80 62 76 56 / 10 10 10 0
FPR 79 69 78 63 / 40 30 40 10

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20
NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1014 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND. A WEAK FRONT WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE. THIS
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA AND IMPACT THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
HRRR RUNS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS
LATER TONIGHT WHICH WOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AREAS OF FOG STILL POSSIBLE UNDER
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
WEST THE STRATUS MOVES IT COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST AND
ALSO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER FLOW PROGGED TO REMAIN NEARLY ZONAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE BY MAINLY TO OUR NORTH WED/WED
NT...BRINGING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION. WITH UPPER
LIFT REMAINING TO OUR NORTH...AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER OUR
REGION...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW TO CONTINUE THU/FRI. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY BEHIND
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. MODELS
PROG UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SE CONUS SAT/SUN AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW CONUS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUN/MON DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION
LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON...WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A POSSIBLE WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SC COAST. CHANCE POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR THAT TIME FRAME. UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MAX TEMPS
WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S FRI THRU SUN.

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE SFC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. AN AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE GRAND STRAND AND PEE DEE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THESE CLOUDS
ARE SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD AS SHOWN BY LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP.
LATEST HRRR SHOWING THESE LOW CLOUDS MOVING AS FAR WEST AS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. HRRR ALSO SHOWING VSBYS
LESS THAN 1/2 MILE COINCIDING WITH THIS SAME AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THINK OGB WILL BE
MOST AFFECTED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. HOWEVER...FOG-PRONE AGS MAY ALSO
HAVE SIMILAR IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AT CAE/CUB/DNL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN AT ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z-15Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

152 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
WEAKEN AS A TROUGH INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE
IN THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN. THE
TROUGHING OFF THE COAST WILL INTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE MODEL DEPICT THE STRONGEST UPPER-
LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25
JET DURING THE 09Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. THE 16Z HRRR DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE 12Z ARW HAD SCATTERED PATCHES
OF RAIN JUST NEARING THE EAST EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z
WITH NEARLY ALL RAIN STAYING JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON THE INITIAL DRYNESS AND GREATER UPPER-
LEVEL LIFT HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE WE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER
TIMING. FORECASTED CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST PART CLOSE TO THE SREF
MEAN VALUES. MORE CLOUDINESS IN THE EAST SECTION SHOULD HELP HOLD
UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS EXCEPT
FOLLOWED THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST PART.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25 JET SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY. LEANED TOWARD THE SREF MEAN FOR THE POP FORECAST WHICH WAS
CLOSE TO NAM AND GFS MOS. THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF...AND SREF MEAN
INDICATE RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25 OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE DIMINISHING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD. THE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST EXCEPT STRONG NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING FAVORS THE COOLER GUIDANCE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH
OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS DEPICT JUST A GLANCING
BRUSH OF THE NEXT TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE NATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT MAY BRING
SHOWERS SUNDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND WESTERN
CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT. MODELS DEPICT SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER
ENERGY...AND SHIFT IT N/NE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY INCLUDING OGB VICINITY. INCLUDED
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VCSH FOR OGB LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE
CSRA...AGS/DNL...THOUGH OME THIN CIRRUS COULD CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVERHEAD...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WELL TO OUR
WEST POSSIBLY STREAMING IN LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...COUPLED WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR THE
CSRA...INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TONIGHT FOR MVFR VSBYS AT FOG PRONE
AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG POSSIBLE AT THE FOG PRONE SITES
AGS/OGB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

125 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND WESTERN
CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT. MODELS DEPICT SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER
ENERGY...AND SHIFT IT N/NE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY INCLUDING OGB VICINITY. AT THIS
TIME...KEPT MOST TERMINALS VFR...BUT INCLUDED PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
AND VCSH FOR OGB LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG POSSIBLE AT THE FOG PRONE SITES
AGS/OGB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

921 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MOVE OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND
REMAIN UNTIL WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
920 PM...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE MAINE COAST
LATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH. A CLOUD DECK WITH CEILINGS AROUND 4K FT
AGL HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE UPPER PENOBSCOT VALLEY AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY. IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE MUCH
MORE PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER, SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM
ACROSS THE BANGOR AND DOWNEAST REGION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING WITH SOME
BREAKS IN HE CLOUDS LIKELY TO EXPAND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE
00Z KCAR SOUNDING DID SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 4 K FT
AGL WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE CURRENT CEILINGS ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST OF THE UPDATES WERE CENTERED ON THE CLOUD COVER BASED
ON THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS, ALTHOUGH IF NORTHERN
AREAS DO CLEAR OUT IT COULD GET A LITTLE COLDER THAN FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS. MRMS AND CANADIAN RADAR FROM QUEBEC SHOWED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHERN MAINE. KFVE REPORTED
A MIX RAIN/SNOW W/THE FROPA. TEMPS HAVE MAXED OUT WILL DROP AS
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE
SHOWED A BAND OF PRECIP DROPPING SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING W/THE FRONT. NOT MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP IF ANY AT ALL
W/THE BAND. THE BAND OF PRECIP IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT DROPS
SE THIS EVENING. WX ELEMENT WILL BE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. NNW WINDS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES QUICKLY BUILDS E BEHIND THEFRONT.
AS WELL STATED BY THE MIDNIGHT CREW, THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGES WILL BE THE EXTENT OF THE RADIATION INVERSION AS SHOWN
BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WHETHER CLOUDS WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHALLENGE W/THE TEMP
FORECAST. CLEARING SKIES COULD READINGS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
TEENS FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. A WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
WOULD KEEP TEMPS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ATTM, DECIDED TO
USE A CONSENSUS OF THE CONSRAW GUIDANCE AND SHOWED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LEANED W/UPPER TEENS AND LOWERS 20S
NORTH AND WEST AND MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A LEAST PARTLY SUNNY DAY BUT COOLER W/HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W. THINKING HERE IS THAT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
TAKES PLACE IN THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH. SHOWERS ARE THEN
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. FOR TEMPERATURES
WILL USE THE BIAS CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGH AND THE CONSENSUS RAW
FOR LOWS BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE EARLY SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST MONDAY.

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING MAINLY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. THE WIND WILL RANGE FROM 10-15
KTS SUSTAINED W/GUSTS TO 20 KTS. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE
OUTER ZONES. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-4 INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS.
FOR WAVES: OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE WILL DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY. A
SOUTHERLY FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVES MAY APPROACH SCA
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

.CLIMATE...
THE FALL CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WAS PREPARED TODAY. PLEASE CHECK IT OUT ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON
THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR, PWMCLMCAR, OR CXUS51
KCAR.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

632 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
632 PM UPDATE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT THERE IS A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND
4-5K FT AGL. THESE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING, BUT SHOULD BREAK UP AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. COLDER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BUT
STILL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BY DECEMBER STANDARDS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAINLY THE SKY GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A LEAST PARTLY SUNNY DAY BUT COOLER W/HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W. THINKING HERE IS THAT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING MAINLY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
W/THE COLD FROPA.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING WINDS UP TO 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED W/GUSTS TO
20 KTS. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE OUTER ZONES. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE 3-4 INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS.
FOR WAVES: OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE WILL DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY. A
SOUTHERLY FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVES MAY APPROACH SCA
TURSDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE WAVE
GRIDS.

.CLIMATE...THE FALL CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WAS PREPARED TODAY. PLEASE CHECK IT OUT ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON
THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR, PWMCLMCAR, OR CXUS51
KCAR.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1151 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED 12:50 AM: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ALL FORECASTING CHALLENGES REMAIN UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AND THE H925 LAYER. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NAM12 IN NORTHERN
ZONES WITH STRATUS AND LOW STRATOCU REFORMING OR THICKENING WITH
SUNRISE AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ERODE STEADILY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WEAK
DOWNSLOPING WILL GENERATE SOME HOLES IN THE STRATOCU TONIGHT...BUT
WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLOUDY SKIES FOR THESE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST...THE LOW STRATOCU IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
A FACTOR. IN ITS PLACE...FOG AND FREEZING FOG WILL BE THE ISSUES
THIS MORNING. FOLLOWING THE RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE...FREEZING FOG
WILL BOTH FORM AND ADVECT EASTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION IN
THE MIDCOAST. THIS FOG IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOG THIS MORNING WILL ALSO EXTEND UP THE PENOBSCOT RIVER VALLEY
TOWARDS HOULTON. THE FREEZING FOG WILL GENERATE SOME VERY SLICK
ROADS. WILL MAINTAIN THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING
THIS RISK THROUGH 8AM AND MAY EXTEND IT. THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE
THAT HAS REFROZEN AFTER YESTERDAY`S SNOWMELT IS ALSO CAUSING
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC BNDRY WL BE LOCATED ALONG THE COAST BY THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM. WL TAKE AWHILE FOR SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO MIX OUT WITH CLDY
CONDS EXPECTED MON MRNG OVR FAR NRN ZONES. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
EXPECT ANOTHER MOSUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS ABV NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. MAXES
WL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY`S HIGHS AS H9 CLD ADVECTION
KICKS IN FOLLOWING FROPA. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY BEING WRUNG
OUT IN NW FLOW AS VORT MAX SCOOTS ACRS WITH UPR TROF DRG THE AFTN.

NW FLOW CONTINUES DRG THE OVRNGT HRS WITH PCLDY SKIES EXPECTED ALL
NIGHT ACRS THE NORTH WITH SOME CLRNG ACRS SRN ZONES. WINDS WL BEGIN
TO DROP OFF IN THE NORTH WOODS LATE AS HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST.

SFC RIDGE AXIS WL BE ACRS CWA DRG THE DAY TUESDAY. H5 TROF CURRENTLY
OVR THE CENTER OF THE NATION WL SWING EAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MON NGT, WITH SFC LOW DVLPNG OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MODELS
HV TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS LOW THUS NOT EXPECTING
ANY IMPACT ON CWA BY TUESDAY OTHER THAN HIGH CLDS AND INCREASE IN
WV HEIGHTS FOR MARINE ZONES.

HIPRES WL SHIFT EAST TUE NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING CLDS BACK
TO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WL BE SIMILAR TO MON NGT TEMPS WITH CLDY
SKIES AND MINIMAL WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPS WL MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM AS SRLY FLOW WL
PREDOMINATE THRU THURSDAY. 00Z GFS AND EC HV ANOTHER TROF EXITING
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THUR MRNG WITH SFC LOW EJECTING NR THE
VIRGINIA CAPES AT THIS TIME. GFS IS FURTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF
LOW THAN EC IS WHILE GEM DOES NOT HV ANY INDICATION OF FEATURE
EITHER AT SFC OR ALOFT. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX-
MAKER TO WATCH THRU THE PD AS RMNDR OF EXTNDD LOOKS QUIET AND
WARM, RELATIVELY SPEAKING.

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FOG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION
THIS MORNING...BRUSHING BGR AND LINGERING IN BHB THROUGH THE
MORNING AND POSSIBLY LONGER. FREEZING FOG IS ALSO AN ISSUE THIS
MORNING AT HUL AND FVE. THE FOG WILL LIFT TO MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. ALL SITES NORTH OF HUL WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS MUCH OF SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS ON MONDAY
THEN BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER CHC FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS ON WED NGT
AND THU.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH NEAR 25 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THE PROBABILITY AND FREQUENCY OF
THESE GUSTS WARRANTS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SCA LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
MARINE...MIGNONE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

912 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED 9:10 AM: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE.

HIPRES WL SHIFT EAST TUE NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING CLDS BACK
TO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WL BE SIMILAR TO MON NGT TEMPS WITH CLDY
SKIES AND MINIMAL WARM ADVECTION.

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FOG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION
THIS MORNING...BRUSHING BGR AND LINGERING IN BHB THROUGH THE
MORNING AND POSSIBLY LONGER. FREEZING FOG IS ALSO AN ISSUE THIS
MORNING AT HUL AND FVE. THE FOG WILL LIFT TO MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. ALL SITES NORTH OF HUL WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS MUCH OF SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS ON MONDAY
THEN BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER CHC FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS ON WED NGT
AND THU.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH NEAR 25 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THE PROBABILITY AND FREQUENCY OF
THESE GUSTS WARRANTS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SCA LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

648 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7AM UPDATE...BLACK ICE CONTINUES TO BE THE BIG ISSUE THIS MORNING
AS ACCIDENTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND THE RISK
EXISTS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HAVE
REFINED THE FORECAST IN TERMS OF THIS MORNING`S PATCHY FREEZING
FOG AND THE CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING COASTAL AREAS MAY
STAY IN THE FOG ALL DAY...WHILE BANGOR REMAINS SUNNY. FURTHER
NORTH...AM CONTINUING TO LEAN TOWARDS STRATUS FORMING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT IF THE AIR UNDER H925 IS JUST A BIT DRIER THAN
FORECAST...IT WILL BE A SUNNY DAY.

HIPRES WL SHIFT EAST TUE NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING CLDS BACK
TO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WL BE SIMILAR TO MON NGT TEMPS WITH CLDY
SKIES AND MINIMAL WARM ADVECTION.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FOG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION
THIS MORNING...BRUSHING BGR AND LINGERING IN BHB THROUGH THE
MORNING AND POSSIBLY LONGER. FREEZING FOG IS ALSO AN ISSUE THIS
MORNING AT HUL AND FVE. THE FOG WILL LIFT TO MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. ALL SITES NORTH OF HUL WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS MUCH OF SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS ON MONDAY
THEN BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER CHC FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS ON WED NGT
AND THU.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH NEAR 25 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THE PROBABILITY AND FREQUENCY OF
THESE GUSTS WARRANTS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SCA LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...FARRAR
AVIATION...MCW/FARRAR
MARINE...MCW/FARRAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

343 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALL FORECASTING CHALLENGES REMAIN UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AND THE H925 LAYER. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NAM12 IN NORTHERN
ZONES WITH STRATUS AND LOW STRATOCU REFORMING OR THICKENING WITH
SUNRISE AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ERODE STEADILY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WEAK
DOWNSLOPING WILL GENERATE SOME HOLES IN THE STRATOCU TONIGHT...BUT
WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLOUDY SKIES FOR THESE NORTHERN ZONES.

HIPRES WL SHIFT EAST TUE NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING CLDS BACK
TO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WL BE SIMILAR TO MON NGT TEMPS WITH CLDY
SKIES AND MINIMAL WARM ADVECTION.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FOG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION
THIS MORNING...BRUSHING BGR AND LINGERING IN BHB THROUGH THE
MORNING AND POSSIBLY LONGER. FREEZING FOG IS ALSO AN ISSUE THIS
MORNING AT HUL AND FVE. THE FOG WILL LIFT TO MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. ALL SITES NORTH OF HUL WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS MUCH OF SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS ON MONDAY
THEN BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER CHC FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS ON WED NGT
AND THU.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH NEAR 25 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THE PROBABILITY AND FREQUENCY OF
THESE GUSTS WARRANTS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SCA LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...FARRAR
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/MCW/FARRAR
MARINE...CB/DUDA/MCW/FARRAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

1130 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AND INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1125 PM UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. FREEZING FOG AND BLACK
ICE IS ALREADY STARTING TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE REGION AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT IS CURRENTLY OUT UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

900 PM UPDATE...ENSEMBLE AND HRRR GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND UP THROUGH THE
MAINE MIDCOAST. ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR OVERNIGHT. ALSO,
TEMPERATURES HAVE RADIATED OUT QUITE QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SO LOWERED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
A BIT TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE ON ROADS TONIGHT WITH
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING.

515 PM UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOULD RADIATE OUT QUITE
EFFICIENTLY AND LOOKING AT THE LATEST OB TRENDS TEMPS HAS COOLED
ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN THE PAST HOUR AFTER SUNSET. WENT A BIT COOLER
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
WITH AND DESPITE WARMING AIR ALOFT WILL SEE GOOD RAD COOLING
/ALTHOUGH WITHOUT SNOW/ AND TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S IN MANY SPOTS TO AROUND 30 ON THE COAST. ANY EVENING
CLOUDS IN THE MTNS WILL CLEAR LATER TONIGHT...WITH A FEW CIRRUS
MOVING THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH HOLDS OVER THE CWA DURING MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WEAK
500MB WAVE PASSING TO OUR N WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE ALOFT...AND
ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SLIP THRU THE CWA SUN NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY AND SUNNY AND MILD...AS SW FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER MIX THE WARM AIR ALOFT
THAT SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW TO MID 50S...AND
EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S...NEAR THE SW ME COAST AND IN SRN NH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE SUN
NIGHT...PROBABLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT...AND WILL
PRODUCE A SCT-BKN MID LVL CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIP. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S N TO LOW 30S S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN
THE WESTERN US ALLOWING THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS TO MAINTAIN
ITSELF IN THE EAST. HAVE NO REASON TO ARGUE THIS GENERAL PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD.

SO...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A TEMPORARY
SPLIT FLOW IN THE EAST ALLOWS A SYSTEM TO MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUE AND WED.
THEN LATE IN THE WEEK A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL
FLOW WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THU AND FRIDAY. A WEAK WAVE MAY EVEN DEVELOP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS SUGGESTED BY THE EURO. SOME VERY LIGHT
MIXED PCPN MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM BUT WILL BE VERY MINOR.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
1125 PM UPDATE...VLIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AT LEB AND RKD DUE TO FREEZING FOG. OTHER
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

900 PM UPDATE...VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING. MOST LIKELY
AREAS WILL BE RKD...LEB...AND AUG...HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG IN OTHER
AREAS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VFR THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ATTM...BUT WILL SEE SW FLOW APPROACH SCA
LVLS SUN EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...WAVES APPROACH 5-6 FT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THU AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KISTNER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

417 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL PLAGUE PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL LEAVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY RUNNING AS IS. LATEST GOES FOG
PRODUCT AND SCATTERED OBSERVATION SITES ARE INDICATING LARGE HOLES
DEVELOPING IN THE FOG BANK. THIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING THANKS TO
A VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THAT IS SINKING AND
PROMOTING A DE-SATURATION OF THE AIR AT GROUND LEVEL. THINKING
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...THE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELLED
EARLY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...ALLOWING
FOR LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE RESULTING WARM
ADVECTION. OUTSIDE OF ANY AREAS OF LINGERING FOG/LOW CLOUDS...
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LIFT WILL REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...ON THE HEELS OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...WILL CROSS
LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS TIME THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST
LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS DRY
FORECAST AND THE PLACEMENT OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
WERE HELD NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SUPPORTS RIDGING IN THE EAST. THERE
ARE SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES EVIDENT BETWEEN THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR A LATE WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

UPPER RIDGING WILL SUPPORT MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE LIGHT
WIND...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND COOLING LEAD THE AIR MASS TO REACH
SATURATION AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS. 00Z TAFS INCLUDE A
MIX OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS AND THE 20Z HRRR MODEL...WHICH HAD THE BEST SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF FOG COMPARED TO CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOG IS CURRENTLY
PATCHY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...BUT
THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOG IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...IF NOT EARLY AFTERNOON. DISSIPATION TO VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE AIDED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY...COMPARED
TO THE NEAR CALM CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
RAIN MAY IMPACT KZZV/KMGW ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE REGION.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057-058-068.
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>023.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

202 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL PLAGUE PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION
FREE WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WILL BE EXTENDING THE FOG ADVISORY TO COVER ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST PA. APPEARS TO BE SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO THE FAR
WEST...PERHAPS DUE TO A WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL REQUIRE A CLOSE WATCH ON THE FOG AND
STRATUS CLOUDS. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY LOOKS WELL PLOTTED
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EXPAND IF NEEDED. CURRENT HIRES MODEL DATA DOES SHOW SOME
EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STRATUS DECK...SO HAVE
MODIFIED THE CLOUDS TO COVER FOR THIS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LIFT WILL REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL SUPPORT MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE LIGHT
WIND...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND COOLING LEAD THE AIR MASS TO REACH
SATURATION AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS. 00Z TAFS INCLUDE A
MIX OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS AND THE 20Z HRRR MODEL...WHICH HAD THE BEST SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF FOG COMPARED TO CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOG IS CURRENTLY
PATCHY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...BUT
THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOG IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...IF NOT EARLY AFTERNOON. DISSIPATION TO VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE AIDED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY...COMPARED
TO THE NEAR CALM CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
RAIN MAY IMPACT KZZV/KMGW ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE REGION.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1237 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL PLAGUE PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION
FREE WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL REQUIRE A CLOSE WATCH ON THE FOG AND
STRATUS CLOUDS. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY LOOKS WELL PLOTTED
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EXPAND IF NEEDED. CURRENT HIRES MODEL DATA DOES SHOW SOME
EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STRATUS DECK...SO HAVE
MODIFIED THE CLOUDS TO COVER FOR THIS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL SUPPORT MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE LIGHT
WIND...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND COOLING LEAD THE AIR MASS TO REACH
SATURATION AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS. 00Z TAFS INCLUDE A
MIX OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS AND THE 20Z HRRR MODEL...WHICH HAD THE BEST SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF FOG COMPARED TO CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOG IS CURRENTLY
PATCHY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...BUT
THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOG IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...IF NOT EARLY AFTERNOON. DISSIPATION TO VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE AIDED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY...COMPARED
TO THE NEAR CALM CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
RAIN MAY IMPACT KZZV/KMGW ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE REGION.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057-058-068.
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020-022-023.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

720 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDED INTO WRN MN
FROM LOW PRES OVER SRN MANITOBA. ALTHOUGH RADARS SHOWED SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER NRN INTO CNTRL WI...NO SFC REPORTS OF PCPN WERE NOTED.
VIS SATELLITE INDICATED MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
OVER THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER MOST OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA.
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WEST HALF...DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW HAS
HELPED SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT WITH CONTINUED SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF MOISTURE
BENEATH THE STRONG 875 MB INVERSION (12Z KGRB SOUNDING) THAT THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND THICKEN WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.
ALTHOUGH 850-500 MB QVECTOR CONV AND 280K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED...THE 850-700 MB DRY LAYER WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICE NUCLEI FROM REACHING THE LOWER MOIST LAYER.
SO...WILL MENTION DZ/FZDZ SPREADING WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER
03Z...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. ADDITIONAL MOISTENING
WITH THE FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ALSO FAVOR GREATER DZ
POTENTIAL OVER THE ERN CWA. CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WITH LESS/NO PCPN/FOG.

TUESDAY...ANY LINGERING DZ/FZDZ IN THE MORNING OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN CWA IS EXPECTED TO DEPART BY 15Z. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER WITH WEAK SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LACK OF ANY DRY ADVECTION.
THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COMING THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND EJECTS A COUPLE WAVES TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THERE WILL BE TWO WEST-EAST WAVES AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
WEEK...THE FIRST OCCURRING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND A
SECOND...STRONGER WAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. IN BOTH
CASES...EXPECT PRIMARILY RAIN TO OCCUR...BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
COLD AIR WRAPPING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SECOND WAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO LOWER WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS TO LEAD TO SOME
SNOW OVER THE WESTERN U.P.. THAT COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE FIRST
WAVE...BUT THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY BE DONE BY THE TIME
THAT HAPPENS. QPF AMOUNTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 0.15IN...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE SECOND EVENT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THINK THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF (OVER A QUARTER INCH OF
QPF POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR).

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT PUTS THE
REGION IN THE RIGHT LOCATION FOR A POSSIBLE STRONGER STORM MOVING
THROUGH SOMETIME IN THE 5-10 DAY TIME FRAME. WITH THE FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE...SOME COLD AIR DOES TRY TO FILTER INTO THE
CWA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...SO THAT DOES CREATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IF A SYSTEM OCCURS. THE 12Z RUNS LOOK TO
TRACK THE HEAVIEST QPF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT IT IS
STILL 6 PLUS DAYS OUT AND WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO ADJUST AND
LOOK AT ANY POTENTIAL SYSTEMS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUSTAIN LIFR TO OCCASIONAL VLIFR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE MORNING AT KSAW. SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. AT IWD/CMX...A MORE DOWNSLOPE
SE WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING WHEN NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL HELP SUPPORT STRATUS FORMATION
WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TUE
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID TUE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 25-30 KNOT WIND
GUSTS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY 25 KNOT
WINDS IS EXPECTED THU INTO THU NIGHT OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

639 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

.UPDATE...

ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE FOG EVENT ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY EARLY THIS EVENING...
A RAPID RESPONSE TO SIMPLY A HINT OF NEAR SURFACE COOLING. ADVISORY
ALREADY IN PLACE FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR.
PRIMARY QUESTION FOR THIS CORRIDOR REMAINS DEFINING THE EXACT END
POINT FOR THIS DENSE FOG...RELIANCE SEEMINGLY MOST TIED TO ONSET
TIMING OF A STRONGER SOUTHERLY GRADIENT. LEANING HEAVILY ON RECENT
HRRR MODEL VISIBILITY OUTPUT...WHICH HAS PERFORMED REASONABLY WELL
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...A MORE PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK
IS FAVORED WITH GREATER PROSPECTS FOR DENSE FOG TO PERSIST RIGHT
INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS. WITH THAT SAID...ELECTED TO
HIGHLIGHT A LONG DURATION DENSE FOG EVENT WITH A HEADLINE END
POINT SET AT 16Z TUESDAY MORNING...THUS AFFORDING THE OVERNIGHT
CREW SOME FLEXIBILITY TO END THE HEADLINE SOONER SHOULD THE
EMERGING GRADIENT STIR THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER UP A TOUCH SOONER.

SOME PERPETUATION OF A WEAK SOUTHERLY GRADIENT MAINTAINING MORE OF
A STRATUS CANOPY ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND HRRR OUTPUT CAST MORE DOUBT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
TO EMERGE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...AND WILL AWAIT A MORE
DEFINITIVE DOWNWARD MOVE IN VISIBILITY BEFORE CONSIDERING A
HEADLINE HERE.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 617 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

ANOTHER EXTENSIVE DENSE FOG EVENT UNFOLDING ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AIRSPACE THIS EVENING. DETROIT TO FLINT CORRIDOR
WILL REMAIN IN LIFR WITH EXISTING 1/4 MILE VSBY BUDGING LITTLE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING THE END POINT
OF THIS CONDITION...RELIANCE SEEMINGLY MOST TIED TO ONSET TIMING OF
A STRONGER SOUTHERLY GRADIENT. LEANING HEAVILY ON RECENT HRRR MODEL
VISIBILITY OUTPUT...WHICH HAS PERFORMED REASONABLY WELL OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...A MORE PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK IS FAVORED WITH
GREATER PROSPECTS FOR DENSE FOG/LIFR TO PERSIST UNTIL WITHIN THE 12Z-
14Z WINDOW. STEADY PROGRESSION TOWARD IFR/LOW MVFR STRATUS
THEREAFTER AS GREATER DIURNAL MIXING AND ENSUING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
FLOW TAKES HOLD.

FOR DTW...LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN EXISTING LIFT CONDITION IN DENSE
FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. WHILE AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT MAY WORK TOWARD LIFTING THIS CONDITION 09Z-
12Z...GREATER POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS TO OCCUR BEYOND 12Z AND
WILL FAVOR THE SLOWER RESPONSE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN VSBY/CIGS AOB 1/2SM AND/OR 200 FT TONIGHT...LOW TUESDAY
MORNING

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MEDIUM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 341 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE TODAY AS FAR AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS GO
WITH SOME LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE GLACIAL RIDGE ACTUALLY CLEARING
OUT. THE STRONG INVERSION AGAIN SET THE AREA UP TO DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING AS WINDS REMAINED CALM AND SKIES CLEAR. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER COMES BACK INTO
THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERALL PRESENTS
SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MORE
PROMINENT TROUGHING AND RIDGING BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND FOR AWHILE AND AREAS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY CLEAR WILL SEE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED AND ONGOING
LOW VISIBILITIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
THIS EVENING. DENSE FOG WILL STICK AROUND BEFORE LIFTING TO A LOW
STRATUS DECK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
STARTS TO INCREASE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN
WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TUESDAY MORNING...PRECIP IS
NOT EXPECTED GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE AND FORCING. BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS THE AREA REMAINS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

A TEMPERATURE WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE CWA STARTING
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WERE A
CHALLENGE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF THE CWA CLEARING OUT EARLY AND
OVERACHIEVING. CONCERN IS HOW SOON THIS AREA WILL FILL IN WITH
CLOUDS AND BANKING ON CLOUDS FILLING IN SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.
GOING FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
THAT WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS DO NOT FILL IN
AS EXPECTED THEN LOWS COULD DROP EVEN MORE. FROM TOMORROW ON TEMPS
THEN REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP US DRY FOR THURSDAY BEFORE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF
I-69...THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TRACK.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN CWA WITH ONLY
ABOUT A 20-25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-69. A VERY BRIEF
DRY SPELL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT THINKING
THOUGH IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE SYSTEM...DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE PUTTING IN ANYTHING MORE THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO START OFF AS RAIN AND END
WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW. KEPT PRECIP AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW UNTIL THE
TRACK BECOMES A LITTLE BIT MORE CERTAIN.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
AFFECT LAKE HURON...TOPPING OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED AROUND 25 KNOTS HOWEVER AS THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LAKE SURFACE. WINDS LOOK TO DECREASE
BEHIND THE TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ075-082.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ060>063-068>070-
076-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR LEZ444.

UPDATE.......MR
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...SS/RK
MARINE.......HLO

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

617 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

.AVIATION...

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN VSBY/CIGS AOB 1/2SM AND/OR 200 FT TONIGHT...LOW TUESDAY
MORNING

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MEDIUM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 341 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

DISCUSSION...

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ075-082.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ060>063-068>070-
076-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...SS/RK
MARINE.......HLO

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS
ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

406 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WITH A SRN STREAM MID LEVEL LOW OVER ILLINOIS AND THE
ACTIVE PORTION OF THE NRN STREAM BRANCH WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY. THE NRN ONTARIO SHRTWV HAS DRAGGED A WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH DRIER AIR AND ACYC COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME MIXING HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
UPPER MICHIGAN...EXCEPT OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THE EAST.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE WRN LAKES TONIGHT WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING AOB 0.25 INCH OVER
MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING
INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT THAT WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 30S...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP. ISOLD DENSE
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS IS
NOT AS HIGH. DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WEST
WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL IN THE WEST HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

MONDAY...HIGHER RES MODELS 925MB RH FCST SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL SW
FLOW DRY ADVECTION ALONG WITH LIMITED WINTER TIME DAYTIME WILL BE
ENOUGH TO AGAIN SCOUR OUT ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS/FOG DURING THE MORNING.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH UPPER
40S WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY 500MB WAVES IN WHAT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE ZONAL FLOW...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SFC LOWS SPINNING
ACROSS CANADA IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
OVERALL LIGHT PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED.

BY 00Z TUESDAY THE INITIAL 500MB TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO OUR E /OVER
PA/...WITH AN EXITING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH SET UP FROM N MANITOBA THROUGH MN/IA. A BROAD SFC LOW
WAS OVER MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL CANADA. THE E LOBE OF THIS TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS N ONTARIO...DROPPING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE FCST MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...MUCH OF THAT IS LIGHT AND OVER THE E HALF
OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE AS AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH IN THE BROAD
CANADIAN LOW SWINGS ACROSS S MANITOBA/ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ZONAL FLOW/SLIGHT RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE THE NEXT 500MB TROUGH SETS
UP OVER S SASKATCHEWAN/MT. THE LAST AND STRONGEST PART OF THE
CANADIAN LOW WILL BE OVER S CENTRAL CANADA AT 06Z THURSDAY. LOOK FOR
THIS LOW TO SHIFT ACROSS N MN THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS N
LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO AROUND JAMES BAY BY 18Z FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES...AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN RUNS EJECT THE LOW TO THE NE
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z
ECMWF SPED THE SYSTEM UP A BIT...BUT IT/S STILL ON THE SLOW SIDE.
JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE N INTO OUR AREA IS ALSO
IN QUESTION. THE SLOWER ECMWF GIVES MORE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO POOL
TO OUR S...AND MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT IS LOWER
THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE ONGOING FCST FROM FRIDAY ON.

A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM SHOULD SET UP OVER THE W HALF OF THE NATION
SATURDAY...IN THE FORM OF A SIGNIFICANT 500MB TROUGH. EXACTLY WHERE
THE SFC LOW SETS UP IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF
TIES IT TO THE SLOWER LOW IMPACTING OUR WEATHER THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF SETS UP THE SECONDARY LOW WELL TO THE S. THE
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A STRONGER SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AT 00Z SATURDAY MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT IS
MUCH MORE QPF OFF THE GFS...WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THE SWATH OF
HIGHEST PRECIP OVER LOWER MI SATURDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...COLD AIR
LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPS
OF -5 TO -12C BY 00Z MONDAY ON W TO NNW WINDS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BREAK OUR TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SW HAD LOWERED IWD/CMX CIGS TO
IFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LIMITED DAYTIME/HEATING MIXING HAS
BROUGHT CIGS BACK JUST ABOVE IFR THRESHOLD. A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO SAW HAS MAINTAINED VFR CIGS THAT WERE NEAR MVFR.
EXPECT LEVEL OF EARLY AFTERNOON CIGS TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 21Z. THE
ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP REDUCE
LOW CLOUDS LATER TODAY. BUT MORE FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDSS MAY
REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FOG TO DEVELOP WILL BE AT SAW...SO FCST PREDOMINANT
IFR VSBY THERE AFT 07Z. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOG COULD REDUCE VSBY
AT CMX/IWD BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING TO
THE EAST AND LOW PRES MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF 25 KNOT WINDS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SRLY 25 KNOT WINDS IS
EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

326 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW ACRS
NAMERICA DOWNWIND OF A DEEPER TROF OFF THE W COAST WITH A NEARLY
ZONAL NRN BRANCH FLOW OVER SRN CANADA AND THE SRN BRANCH FLOW IN THE
CONUS. A SHRTWV IN THE NRN BRANCH FLOW IS OVER NRN MANITOBA EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LO NEAR THE SW EDGE OF HUDSON BAY. A
RATHER WEAK ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT EXTENDS SWWD INTO MN. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FNT IS PACIFIC IN ORIGIN...WITH 00Z H85 TEMPS NO LOWER
THAN 0-2C FM LK WINNIPEG INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE TRAILING AIRMASS
IS QUITE DRY PER THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ONLY
0.25 INCH AT 00Z. THE PASSAGE OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING IN CANADA
CLOSER TO NRN SHRTWV AND VERY DRY PREFRONTAL AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB WITH DEEPER MSTR INFLOW TO THE N INTERRUPTED BY STRONG
SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IS
PREVENTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN AHEAD OF THIS APRCHG COLD FNT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD OF LO CLD AHEAD OF THE FNT...AND THIS LO
CLD IS MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA. COMBINATION OF STEADY SW WINDS UNDER
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE APRCHG FNT AND HI PRES IN THE MID
ATLANTIC AND A GOOD DEAL OF HI CLDS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA/LO CLDS
MOVING INTO THE W IS LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER UPR
MI...WITH EARLY MRNG TEMPS GENERALLY 35 TO 40.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SLIM PCPN CHCS/CLD
TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG COLD FNT. FOCUS FOR TNGT WL SHIFT TO
TEMPS AS DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FNT PUSHES INTO THE UPR LKS.

TODAY...NRN BRANCH SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO THE
E...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FNT CROSSING UPR MI AND REACHING NEWBERRY
LATE IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE SHARPER UPR FORCING WL REMAIN TO THE N
AND S OF UPR MI...FCST SDNGS SHOW GENERALLY DRY MID LVLS BTWN HI
CLDS AND SHALLOW HIER RH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ABUNDANT LO
CLDS...THERE HAVE NO PCPN REPORTS UPSTREAM...AND JUST A FEW OF EVEN
THE HIER RES MODELS GENERATE ANY PCPN OVER THE CWA...OPTED TO REMOVE
POPS EXCEPT FOR SOME SCHC POPS OVER LK SUP. DRIER MID LVL AIR IS
FCST TO FOLLOW DURING THE AFTN...BUT LO CLDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER A
BIT LONGER WITH LO SUN ANGLE/LINGERING LLVL MSTR. SINCE HIER RES
MODEL FCST H95-9 RH HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE LO CLD COVERAGE
EARLY THIS MRNG... UTILIZED THIS FCST FIELD TO HANDLE CLD TRENDS IN
THE GRIDS. THESE MODELS SHOW LO CLDS CLRG THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY
00Z MON WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIRMASS IN THE NRN PLAINS. AFTER THESE
LO CLDS ARRIVE BY 15Z OVER THE SE CWA...WL RETAIN THAT SKY COVER
OVER THE SE HALF THRU 00Z.

TNGT...LINGERING LO CLDS OVER THE SE CWA WL CLR THIS EVNG WITH
ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR/PWAT AOB 0.25 INCH/SFC HI PRES RDG. WITH
LGT WINDS/MOCLR SKIES...TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS EVEN THOUGH SOME HI CLDS MAY ARRIVE LATER. RETAINED MENTION OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AS WELL WITH THE EXPECTED FVRBL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

EXPECT SW WINDS TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS...REMAINING LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1244 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SLIM PCPN CHCS/CLD
TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG COLD FNT. FOCUS FOR TNGT WL SHIFT TO
TEMPS AS DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FNT PUSHES INTO THE UPR LKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

MON LOOKS TO BE THE QUIETEST DAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD.
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S.

FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND IS UNCERTAIN AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION...LEADING TO MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIP AT TIMES. MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING COULD SEE SOME VERY
MINIMAL RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW...BUT DEFINITELY LOW CHANCES.
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING COULD SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK/STRENGTH DETAILS. THE ECMWF IS MOSTLY DRY DURING THE PERIOD
(EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LIGHT LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE E)...BUT THE
GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME GREATER PRECIP AMOUNTS (BUT STILL FAIRLY
MINOR). MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM POSSIBLY LATE
THIS WEEK AND MAYBE ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. MODELS HINT AT COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH
AND BEHIND THOSE STRONGER SYSTEMS...IF THEY MATERIALIZE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

EXPECT SW WINDS TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS...REMAINING LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

634 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SLIM PCPN CHCS/CLD
TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG COLD FNT. FOCUS FOR TNGT WL SHIFT TO
TEMPS AS DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FNT PUSHES INTO THE UPR LKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

MON LOOKS TO BE THE QUIETEST DAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD.
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

WITH A WSHFT TO THE W BEHIND DRY MRNG COLD FROPA...EXPECT MVFR CIGS
AT IWD/CMX TO DETERIORATE TO IFR WITH UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
CONCERNED THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG AT CMX WITH A SHARPER UPSLOPE
COMPONENT. ALTHOUGH THE WSHFT WL ADVECT THE LLVL MSTR INTO SAW AS
WELL LATER IN THE MRNG...DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE W WIND WL LIKELY
HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE THERE. ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG/DRIER AIR
IN THE NRN PLAINS/NW MN WL CLEAR THE LO CLDS LATER TODAY. BUT MORE
FOG/SOME LO CLDS MAY REDEVELOP TNGT WITH LGT WINDS UNDER MOCLR
SKIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS FOG TO DEVELOP WL BE AT SAW...SO
FCST PREDOMINANT IFR VSBY THERE AFT 06Z. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOG
COULD REDUCE VSBY AT CMX/IWD AS WELL...BUT KEPT CONDITIONS VFR FOR
NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

EXPECT SW WINDS TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS...REMAINING LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

436 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SLIM PCPN CHCS/CLD
TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG COLD FNT. FOCUS FOR TNGT WL SHIFT TO
TEMPS AS DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FNT PUSHES INTO THE UPR LKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

MON LOOKS TO BE THE QUIETEST DAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD.
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE MODELS SUGGEST IFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM OBS OVER MN WITH LOWER END MVFR
CIGS AND SOME JUST INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
LOWEST CIGS IS AT IWD AND CMX SINCE THE SW TO WSW WIND WILL BE OF A
MORE DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION AT SAW. EXPECT THAT LEVEL LEVEL DRYING SUN
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

EXPECT SW WINDS TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS...REMAINING LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

316 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SLIM PCPN CHCS/CLD
TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG COLD FNT. FOCUS FOR TNGT WL SHIFT TO
TEMPS AS DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FNT PUSHES INTO THE UPR LKS.

TODAY...NRN BRANCH SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO THE
E...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FNT CROSSING UPR MI AND REACHING NEWBERRY
LATE IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE SHARPER UPR FORCING WL REMAIN TO THE N
AND S OF UPR MI...FCST SDNGS SHOW GENERALLY DRY MID LVLS BTWN HI
CLDS AND SHALLOW HIER RH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ABUNDANT LO
CLDS...THERE HAVE NO PCPN REPORTS UPSTREAM...AND JUST A FEW OF EVEN
THE HIER RES MODELS GENERATE ANY PCPN OVER THE CWA...OPTED TO REMOVE
POPS EXCEPT FOR SOME SCHC POPS OVER LK SUP. DID HOWEVER RETAIN A
MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG THIS MRNG OVER
MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR W WHERE LLVL SATURATION IS
MORE LIKELY IN LLVL SW FLOW. EVEN IF THERE IS SOME FRZG DRIZZLE...
ANY ICING WL BE NEGLIGIBLE. DRIER MID LVL AIR IS FCST TO FOLLOW
DURING THE AFTN...BUT LO CLDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER A BIT LONGER WITH
LO SUN ANGLE. SINCE HIER RES MODEL FCST H95-9 RH HAS A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THE LO CLD COVERAGE EARLY THIS MRNG...UTILIZED THIS FCST
FIELD TO HANDLE CLD TRENDS IN THE GRIDS. THESE MODELS SHOW LO CLDS
CLRG THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY 00Z MON WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIRMASS
IN THE NRN PLAINS. AFTER THESE LO CLDS ARRIVE BY 15Z OVER THE SE
CWA...WL RETAIN THAT SKY COVER OVER THE SE HALF THRU 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

MON LOOKS TO BE THE QUIETEST DAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD.
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

EXPECT SW WINDS TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS...REMAINING LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1209 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.AVIATION...

THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWCASED A CLASSIC DENSE FOG PROFILE WITH A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER CAPPED BY A VERY DEEP INVERSION /BASED AT 300
FT/. THE LAYER ABOVE THIS INVERSION IS ALSO EXTREMELY DRY...MAKING
COOLING ATOP THE MOIST LAYER EVEN MORE EFFICIENT. WHILE DENSE FOG
HAS BECOME LOCKED IN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE IRISH HILLS...THERE IS A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG NORTH OF
THE IRISH HILLS /FNT AND MBS TERMINALS/. COMPLICATING MATTERS DURING
THE MORNING WILL BE THE THICK CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING
IN...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MONITOR THE FOG/STRATUS PROGRESSION ON
SATELLITE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP DENSE FOG LOCKED IN FROM PTK SOUTH ACROSS METRO DETROIT THROUGH
THE MORNING. NORTH OF THE IRISH HILLS...THIS FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. THIS FLOW IS ALSO STRONGER FROM FNT NORTHWARD. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS ARE SUGGESTING THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE STRUGGLING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD GIVEN THESE FACTORS. THIS WILL SUPPORT EASING UP ON
THE CEILING/VISIBILITIES AT FNT AND MBS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR DTW...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
WELL INTO THE MORNING. LIKE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING WILL OFFER
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VISIBILITIES WITH THE CLOUD BASE LIFTING
SLIGHTLY /16-18Z TIME FRAME/. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER
SLIGHTLY MORE SW SUN EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LOSS OF A
BETTER UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THIS AND SOME WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MAY BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THE LINGERING LIFR STRATUS DECK
LATE IN THE DAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN VSBY/CIGS BELOW 1/2SM AND/OR 200 FT THIS MORNING. LOW
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 749 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015

UPDATE...

STEADY SATURATION OF THE NOCTURNALLY COOLING AND SUFFICIENTLY MOIST
SHALLOW SUB-500 FT LAYER AGAIN LEADING TO AN AGGRESSIVE EXPANSION IN
STRATUS/FOG POST-SUNSET. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CASTS LITTLE DOUBT
THAT CONTINUED CONDENSATION WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL MOVE
THIS PROCESS TOWARD A DENSE FOG SITUATION AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IN
LIGHT OF TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL/SATELLITE DATA THUS FAR...AND
EXPECTATIONS MOVING FORWARD...WILL GO AHEAD WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO CAPTURE THE ENTIRE MORNING PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTY
YET AS POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE TRI-
CITIES...THIS QUESTION PRECLUDING A PROACTIVE HEADLINE ISSUANCE AT
THIS POINT ALONG THAT CORRIDOR.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015

DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT RIDGING ALOFT HAS SUPPORTED A VERY WARM LOWER AND MID
TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS. THE CONSEQUENCE OF THIS MASS CONFIGURATION IS THE
PRODUCTION OF A VERY SHALLOW COOL LAYER AT THE SURFACE THAT CANNOT
MIX WITH THE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WARM LATER DUE TO THE EXTREMELY
STABLE TRANSITION LAYER. THE MOISTURE CONTENT BELOW THIS STRONG
INVERSION IS REMAINING FAIRLY CONSTANT...SO IT SIMPLY GOES THROUGH A
CONDENSATION CYCLE DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS AND EVAPORATION DURING
THE DIURNAL WINDOW. GIVEN THE RATHER STEADY-STATE SURFACE RIDGING
AND LACK OF AIRMASS REPLACEMENT NEAR THE GROUND...THIS CYCLE WILL
CONTINUE CERTAINLY THROUGH TONIGHT AND INDICATIONS ARE AN ADDITIONAL
TWO MORE DAYS BEFORE MORE ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON TUESDAY.

THE VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COOL LAYER /SEE 12Z KDTX RAOB/ ALLOWS
FOR GREATER TRAPPING OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ELEVATION REGIONS OF
METRO DETROIT. HENCE...THAT AREA IS THE LAST TO SCOUR OUT THE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS. THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH A GLIMPSE OF
THE SUN PRIOR TO SUNSET...BUT IT WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED. EXPECT FOG
FORMATION TO QUICKLY RESUME AFTER SUNSET AND QUICKLY FILL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN. HRRR AND HRRRX GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RATHER SKILLFUL WITH TODAY/S EPISODE AND OFFER REASONABLE DEPICTIONS
FOR THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT - THOUGH MAY BE A LITTLE
TOO PESSIMISTIC EARLY IN THE PROCESS. HOWEVER...THESE SITUATIONS ARE
ALL OR NOTHING ONCE DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES. DENSE FOG IS HIGHLY
LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT THE TIMING OF ONSET IS IN QUESTION GIVEN
THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS METRO DETROIT AND SOME DEGREE OF
DEWPOINT SEPARATION IN THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE SUN HAS BEEN MORE
ACTIVE.

EQUALLY CHALLENGING WILL BE THE SPATIAL QUALITY OF THE FOG / STRATUS
FIELD. EXPECT THE GLACIAL RIDGE TO EXPERIENCE THE LEAST INFLUENCE
ONCE AGAIN AS ELEVATION INTO THE INVERSION LAYER WILL DIMINISH THE
MOISTURE QUALITY AND FOG PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY. WHILE THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD HAVE A SIMILAR OUTCOME AS
WITNESSED TODAY.

THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO SUN PRIOR TO MIDDAY ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE RIDGE LOCATIONS STARTING MUCH EARLIER. THE DELAYED
START TO INSOLATION WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP TEMPS BELOW STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE...AND IF CLOUDS REFUSE TO BREAK...MUCH BELOW AS
DEMONSTRATED TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY KEEPING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP US DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON THURSDAY.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH THE LOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA. A MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER...MODEL TENDENCIES ARE
INCONSISTENT IN TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. HAVE LEFT JUST
CHANCE POPS /30 TO 40 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND KEEPING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS HURON.
BY MID WEEK A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH
INCREASING SPEEDS. HOWEVER WITH UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR IN
PLACE...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE MINIMAL AND WINDS SHOULD
HAVE NO TROUBLE REMAINING SUB-GALE. FOR THE LONGER TERM, THE NEXT
MAJOR FRONTAL SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD BRING
BRIEF GALES TO THE REGION.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ049-054-055-060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......MR
DISCUSSION...MANN/RK
MARINE.......05

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

600 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

AT 330 PM...SKIES RANGED FROM MOSTLY SUNNY IN PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 40S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
AND EAST CENTRAL MN...TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALSO LINGERED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...AS WELL
AS IN PORTIONS OF PRICE COUNTY.

THE FOCUS OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. WHILE THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP SOMEWHAT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT...WE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL PROBABLY
FORM FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT. ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRIZZLE OR EVENTUALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE FEEL THE BEST
CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE ACROSS NW WI. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY TO THE ARROWHEAD...BUT FELT THIS WAS A GOOD
STARTING POINT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

THE CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY ON TUESDAY...BUT
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE DAY WEARS
ON. THE RAIN WILL BE THE RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

A WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING... BUT WILL FALL NOCTURNALLY AND WITH CAA ON THE
BACKSIDE... EXPECTING A RAIN/SLEET MIX ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN... WITH NOTHING TO SPEAK OF
IN THE WAY OF WINTER ACCUMULATION. BRIEF SFC RIDGING RETURNS
WEDNESDAY... BRINGING A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON... AND PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SLEET NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AROUND OR JUST BEFORE SUNSET. MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST ORGANIZES.
DURING THIS TIME... MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF KEEPS
SFC TEMPS JUST AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING... BUT FCST SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM INDICATE A ROBUST WARM NOSE OF 5C TO 10C ALOFT WHICH WILL
PREVENT ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER RAIN/SLEET
MIX... WITH POSSIBLE OCCASIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON THE
SURFACE TEMPS.

THURSDAY... LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA BECOMES DEEPLY LAYERED
AND GAINS SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROF AS THE CENTER OF IT MOVES EAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CLOUD SHIELD/PRECIP SPREAD WILL BE A BIT LOPSIDED WITH MUCH OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH AND ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. WITH SFC TEMPS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... STILL
EXPECTING RAIN TO BE PRESENT... BUT THE CAA WILL CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO LOSE ITS WARM NOSE. THEREFORE... WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURS AFTERNOON MAINLY JUST ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA... WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR SO
NORTHWEST OF THE IRON RANGE AND NORTH OF BRAINERD. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT FURTHER
EAST FROM DULUTH TO HAYWARD ACROSS NW WISCONSIN.

IN THE EXTENDED... TEMPS FINALLY TREND TOWARD COOLER TOWARD
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A ROBUST STORM SYSTEM
THAT MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND...
BUT THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE WILDLY ON THE STORM TRACK BY SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES... SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT
WITH A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUING. MVFR CEILINGS WERE
EXPANDING EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
THE RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THESE CLOUDS AND SUGGESTS KBRD WILL
BE MAINLY SCATTERED ON THE MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 02Z WITH THESE
CEILINGS DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND.
THERE IS SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR/RAP AS WELL AS SOME OF THE MOS
DATA. PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING LEADING TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
IN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND. A WINTRY MIX WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 42 29 38 / 0 20 30 0
INL 27 41 26 38 / 0 10 10 20
BRD 27 41 26 41 / 0 30 20 0
HYR 28 42 28 41 / 10 40 40 0
ASX 30 44 31 42 / 10 30 40 0

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR LSZ140.

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

408 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA TONIGHT. AT MID AFTERNOON...A SURFACE HIGH
WAS LOCATED NEAR KSTC. A FEW POCKETS OF DENSE FOG REMAINED UNDER
THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND KLJF...KOVL...KULM. CLEARING EXISTS JUST
WEST OF THESE SITES. THE CONCERN IS THAT THE POCKETS OF DENSE FOG
WILL CONGEAL AND BEGIN TO SPREAD NW THIS EVENING AS LIGHT SE WINDS
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE HRRR WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SPREADING
IN ALL DIRECTIONS THIS EVENING. THIS HAS BEEN A TREND SEEN SINCE
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE 18Z HOPWRF HAS A SIMILAR SOLUTION EXCEPT
IT DIMINISHES THE FOG IN THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT. THE 12Z ARW
KEEPS THE DENSE FOG MORE CONFINED TO WHERE IT IS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THEN BEGINS TO DIMINISH IT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE SURFACE WIND FIELD BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SE. MODELED
THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE ARW DUE TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS TO
THE WEST ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI ARE
ALREADY COVERED IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH LITTLE RADIATIONAL
COMPONENT SEEN AS WELL AS THE ADVECTIVE COMPONENT HAVING COME TO
AN END. THEREFORE...MENTIONED DENSE FOG FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
VISIBILITIES PICKING UP OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. THE COLDEST READINGS
ARE FROM MILLE LACS ON EASTWARD WHERE SOME CLEARING MAY REACH IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR WARM
HIGHS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE CLOUD COVER AND THE
HEIGHT OF THE MIXING. KEEPING THE MIXING TO 950 MB YIELDS HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. AN EXCEPTION IS NEAR KCNB WHERE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS MAY YIELD HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. RAISING THE MIXING
HEIGHT TO 925 MB INCREASES HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 8 DEGREES CWA
WIDE. OPTED TO STAY WITH THE LOWER MIXING HEIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH THE SNOW COVER OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

STEADY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT/QUICK SHOTS
OF PRECIP ARE THE STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. AT THIS POINT...THE
DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE IS RAIN.

I COUNT 6-8 SHORTWAVES QUICKLY RIPPLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THESE WILL HAVE NO MAJOR IMPACTS ON
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE TWO MORE AMPLIFIED WAVES /ON TUES AND
THURS/ WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO OR NEAR THE AREA. THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WE HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO FROM 0-10% TO 20-40% DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND
A FAIRLY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE BELOW 8000-10000FT. THIS SUGGESTS A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH SOME CONCERN IN THE OVERALL PRECIP COVERAGE.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RAIN OR RAIN/SLEET MIX EVEN IF WE
MAXIMIZE OUR WET BULB COOLING...IT SIMPLY LOOKS TOO WARM FOR SNOW
AS THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ON TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH QUICKLY AND THE PRECIP SHOULD SHUT OFF QUICKLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. LIKE MOST COLD FRONTS THE PAST 3 MONTHS...THE COLD
ADVECTION IS WEAK AND THERE WONT BE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE
REFLECTION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS QUIET AND MILD AT THIS POINT...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
STRONGER THAN THE TUESDAY SYSTEM AND HAS A BROAD SURFACE LOW IN
THE BALLPARK OF 990MB WHEN IT TRANSVERSES CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN. THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND SOUTH OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS AT THIS POINT.

THE STRONG UPPER JET ACROSS THE PACIFIC BREAKS DOWN LATE THIS WEEK
AND THE CONUS ENDS UP WITH A PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST THAT HEADS EAST NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...A BAND
OF HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH...BUT THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FORECASTING THE PRECIP WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A LITTLE
INCONSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE DAYS - UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN HOW FAR
OUT WE ARE. THESE TROUGHS THAT DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
THEN LIFT OUT ALWAYS SEEM TO TAKE LONGER THAN WHAT THE MODELS
PREDICT. SO...BRINGING IN PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE A LITTLE
AGGRESSIVE AT THIS POINT. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN DAYS 6-8.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COVER ALL BUT KAXN LATE THIS MORNING. VLIFR
VSBYS STILL LINGER FROM WEST OF KSTC THROUGH KRWF...WHICH IS RIGHT
AHEAD THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENCE FOR THE FORECAST AHEAD
IS LOW WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING THE POSSIBILITY THAT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPS CWA WIDE THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
CEILINGS ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI ARE NOT GOING ANYWHERE
SOON DUE TO THE RIDGE AXIS WORKING INTO THESE AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE...KEPT CONDITIONS LOW INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME FOG REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING AS WINDS GO LIGHT
UNDER THE RIDGE. TO THE WEST...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
LATE TODAY FROM KRWF NORTHWARD KAXN AS WELL AS CLOSE TO KSTC. THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH OUT THE LOW CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN THESE
AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE CLEARING WILL COME THE THREAT OF MORE FOG AND
POTENTIAL LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPING PER THE HRRR. HENCE...ALLOWED
FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN HELD ON TO LOW MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH BOTH PARAMETERS PERHAPS
NOT LOW ENOUGH.

KMSP...CEILINGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE TO DRIFT LOWER LATE THIS
MORNING. BELIEVE SOME STABILIZATION WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY
WITH CEILINGS NEAR 010 AND 4-6SM VSBYS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
SATELLITE AIRPORTS AROUND KMSP MAY EXPERIENCE LOWER CONDITIONS.
IMPROVEMENT BEGINS MONDAY MORNING AS AS SOUTHERLY INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION...FLUSHING OUT THE LOW CEILINGS/VSBYS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NGT...VFR. WINDS S 5 KTS.
TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS SSW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

929 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

CLOUDS REMAINED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING AND WE
SLOWED THE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ALSO
CONTINUED...DENSE IN SPOTS...AND WE EXTENDED THE MENTION THROUGH
NOON.

THE 12Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION WITH VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE. THE KMPX SOUNDING HAD DEEPER MOISTURE. THE LACK OF
STRONG FLOW AND WEAK SUN WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND FOG AROUND
LONGER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO LOWERED A COUPLE DEGREES
WHERE WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LAST THE LONGEST.

ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE CLOUDS FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT MAY BE NEEDED AND WE MAY HAVE TO ADD MORE FOG TO
THE FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

CLOUDS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
STRATUS FORMED SATURDAY DESPITE CONCERNS THAT IT WOULD NOT...SO AM
GOING TO BE MORE PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER THAN THE GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SHOWS. STRATUS HAS MADE VERY SLOW PROGRESS EAST IN THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO INCREASE AND MAY EVEN
STALL BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY WHERE FOG HAS FORMED.
THEN...WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT POOR
PROGRESS ON CLEARING DESPITE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVING BODILY
OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. THUS...HAVE SIMILAR CLOUD CONDITIONS TO
CURRENT THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE ALLOWING A GRADUAL CLEARING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
CLOUD COVER MAKES OUR MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST DIFFICULT AS WELL...
AS THE MODELS HAVER FASTER CLEARING...BUT HAVE OVERDONE THE SURFACE
SNOW COVER AND ARE TOO COLD AND MOIST AT THE SURFACE. HAVE GONE
WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR NOW...BUT AM NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN
THIS TODAY. TONIGHT A LITTLE EASIER WITH THE STRATUS CLOUDS FINALLY
CLEARED OUT AND ONLY SOME HIGHER CLOUD COMING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE
GONE WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW END OF GUIDANCE MIN
TEMPS. MONDAY SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA...BUT THE MOISTURE IS ALL MID AND
HIGH LEVEL AND DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN CLOUDS. CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURES REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

A SERIES OF ABOUT THREE DISTINCT CLIPPER-LIKE DISTURBANCES IN THE
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF RIDGING...THEN ANOTHER DEEPER MID-LEVEL
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A YET DEEPER DISTURBANCE WITH AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR WINNIPEG THURSDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THE EXACT TRACK IS LESS CERTAIN
THAN THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE
BEGINS TO DIVERGE...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME RANGE.
HOWEVER...WHILE THERE IS INCONSISTENCY WITH REGARDS TO THE WEAKER
SYSTEMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A DEEP
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT EMERGING BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE NORTHLAND.
WHILE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...THIS DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE PARADE OF DISTURBANCES IS FAIRLY LOW
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LESS-THAN-IDEAL
LARGE-SCALE LIFT. THE USUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES RESULTS IN LOW PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IT IS
NOT EXPECT TO RAIN/SNOW ALL WEEK LONG...AND THAT THESE CHANCES WILL
BE REFINED. IN TERMS OF ANYTHING MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID-EQUIVALENT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WHEN THE BEST DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER A HALF INCH WITH SOME
GUIDANCE /GFS/ DEPICTING OVER THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN SOME
LOCATIONS. WHILE THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...IT HIGHLIGHTS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE...NEAR-
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING MUCH OF THE WEEK...BUT WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -3 TO +5...A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THE NAM/SREF DEPICT A MUCH COLDER LAYER
OF AIR AT THE SFC WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DECIDED TO STICK WITH A STRAIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW SINCE THE
NAM/SREF TEND TO BE OVERDONE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...THEN A BIT
COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS DOWN TO LOW 30S TO NEAR 40 ON
SATURDAY...COLDEST IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S MOST NIGHTS...WITH AGAIN THE COLDER TEMPS ARRIVING FOR
THE WEEKEND. NORMAL HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S AND NORMAL
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

PUTTING THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO CONTEXT...WHILE WE WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE
OUT OF REACH AT DLH WITH MOST RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK IN THE LOW/MID
50S...THE EXCEPTIONS BEING DEC 8 /45/ AND DEC 10 /46/. AT
INTERNATIONAL FALLS OUR FORECAST HIGH IS WITHIN A DEGREE OF THE
RECORD HIGH ON DEC 10 /RECORD 41...FORECAST 40/...WITH THE REST OF
THE RECORD HIGHS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LIKELY OUT OF REACH.
HOWEVER...IN TERMS OF RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS /AKA WARMEST LOW
TEMPS/ WE APPROACH RECORDS ON MULTIPLE DAYS THIS WEEK AT BOTH
SITES...SO EXPECT TO SEE RECORD REPORTS ON A FEW DAYS THIS WEEK FOR
THE UNUSUALLY WARM NIGHTS AHEAD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR
WORSE CEILINGS/VISIBILITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT SOME
SITES...PARTICULARLY DLH. WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...BECOMING NEAR CALM
TONIGHT. CEILINGS LESS THAN 1KFT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TODAY AS
CLEAR IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS...THOUGH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE CLEARING IS VERY SLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT ALL SITES
BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE
CLEARING VISIBILITIES HAVE FALLEN DRAMATICALLY...AND A REDUCTION
TO LIFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AT BRD FOR A TIME THIS MORNING
BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE HRRR MODEL IS AGGRESSIVE ABOUT THE
CLEARING LINE BARELY BUDGING ALL DAY...BUT GIVEN TRENDS OVERNIGHT
BELIEVE CLEARING/IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 39 25 40 29 / 0 0 0 0
INL 40 23 42 28 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 38 24 42 28 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 40 22 43 30 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 40 23 44 32 / 0 0 0 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

545 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 41 25 40 29 / 0 0 0 0
INL 38 23 42 28 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 40 24 42 28 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 42 22 43 30 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 42 23 44 32 / 0 0 0 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

544 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

Low clouds have finally cleared to the east of the MS River as
lower trop southwesterly flow increases. I expect this clearing
trend to continue through the remainder of the afternoon into the
early evening. The late clearing east of the river however will
set the stage for fog potential later tonight in IL. Although the
surface ridge has retreated, southerly flow across IL is expected
to be quite light with dew points in the upper 30s. This should
allow for radiational fog to develop by late evening and progress
overnight. The HRRR and SREF is highlighting dense fog potential
for SW/SC IL and at this time I will be mentioning areas of dense
fog into Tuesday morning. Otherwise there will be a couple of
batches of high clouds tonight and slightly greater southerly flow
to the west of the MS river, keeping temps a bit higher than last
night.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

As discussed yesterday, a mild week is on tap with above normal
temperatures and a series of fast-moving short waves impacting
portions of the area within progressive flow aloft. There will also
be bouts of clouds with the shortwaves which will assist
modulating temperatures. The strongest shortwave forecast this
week will amplify as it traverses the CWA on Tuesday night.
Veering south to southwesterly low level flow ahead of the wave
should lead to a nice warm-up on Tuesday. There appears to be
sufficient forcing/ascent and moistening to merit continuing with
slight chance pops on Tuesday night. The GFS is strongest with
this system and the most bullish guidance with precipitation,
albeit very light. We will see some cooling in the wake of this
system for Wednesday, but temperatures will still be a good 10-15
degs above average. The next more prominent short wave will track
to our north across the upper MS Valley on Thursday, and this will
result in good southwesterly low level flow with high temps 20 or
so degrees above average.

The very mild weather will continue through the end of the week
and into Saturday as a large scale pattern change evolves,
featuring the development of a deep and progressive long wave trof
over the western U.S. and its eventual eastward migration Sunday
into the first part of next week. There is considerable model
spread, both deterministic solutions and ensemble members, leading
to low confidence in forecast details. Prolonged low level
southerly flow will bring low level moisture back into the Mid MS
Valley ahead of a NE-SW oriented cold front, setting the stage for
an increased thunder threat. At this point there looks to be a
good chance of showers and thunderstorms somewhere centered on
Saturday night.

Glass

.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: VFR for the first 0-6 hours of the valid
TAF period. Fog and/or stratus is possible after 06z, especially
at KUIN. Light southerly to southeasterly winds will become
southwesterly after 12-15z and increase to around 12 kts.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR for the first 0-6 hours of the
valid TAF period. Fog and/or stratus is possible after 06z. Light
southerly to southeasterly winds will become southwesterly after
12-15z and increase to around 12 kts.

Kanofsky

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

257 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sun Dec 6 2015

Potent short wave trof moving through the Mid MS Valley has more
bark than bite and has only managed some small bands of light rain
as the forcing moved into the CWA. This trof and the associated
forcing will exit east into the OH Valley by mid evening, thus
will be mentioning a low chance of rain early this evening to the
east of the MS River. Complications arise in the wake of this
system and the potential for low clouds and fog. System related
clouds aoa 5kft currently blanketing the CWA will shift to the
east, while low stratus over IA will advect into western portions
of the CWA this evening. This low stratus will then slowly advect
into eastern MO later tonight. There are strong indications with
many of the shorter range models, especially the HRRR and SREF,
that dense fog will develop in its wake in an arcing N/S band from
western MO into central MO where sfc winds will become light in
association weak surface ridging. At this time I have mentioned
areas of dense fog late tonight into Monday morning. If the HRRR
is correct then an advisory may ultimately be warranted.

Clouds and fog should clear out west to east on Monday as the
surface ridge moves east and south to westerly flow gets underway
in the lower trop. This should allow for temps to rebound to above
average levels by afternoon.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sun Dec 6 2015

A progressive flow regime will be in place this upcoming week and
this will lead to very mild temperatures running some 10 to 20
degrees above average. A couple of noteable but quick-moving shortwaves
and associated surface systems will impact the area within the
progressive flow with any cooling quite neglible.The first will
be Tuesday night and have some slight chance pops with it. Another
quick-moving shortwave trof moves across the area Thurs aft/night,
but the impact is primarily to our north. By the end of the week
there is a large scale pattern change with overall amplification
and development of a deep trof in the western U.S.. This trof
progresses into the central U.S. by next weekend leading to
increasing POPS and a greater threat of widespread rainfall.

Glass

.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Sun Dec 6 2015

Upper level disturbance continues to move east across the area
this afternoon with some patches of light rain showers expected.
Ceilings are VFR and this is expected to continue until later this
evening and overnight when lower ceilings (stratus) across the
western half of Iowa move south-southeast into the area and align
themselves by 12Z along the Mississippi River. To the west of this
stratus, fog (likely dense) will develop. KCOU would be affected
by this fog and have tempo for 1/2SM late tonight into Monday
morning. Other sites will see the MVFR to IFR stratus deck with
only MVFR visibilities.

Clearing should take place on Monday during the late morning and
early afternoon. Light west wind will become northwest.

Specifics for KSTL:

Mid deck of cloud cover continues to build east and showers across
north central Missouri will move southeast into the terminal by
around 21Z. Rain should end quickly this evening with MVFR and IFR
ceilings arriving late. Light west wind will become northwest.

CVKING

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 51 38 51 38 / 60 10 0 0
Quincy 47 35 49 36 / 70 5 0 0
Columbia 49 34 53 37 / 50 5 0 0
Jefferson City 50 34 54 36 / 30 5 0 0
Salem 51 38 49 37 / 30 30 5 0
Farmington 53 37 51 35 / 20 10 0 0

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1136 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 905 PM CST Sat Dec 5 2015

Visibilities have dropped recently at Effingham, Taylorville, and
Mt. Vernon; though they are not nearly as low as they were at this
time last night. Still expect visibilities to fall into the 1-3SM
range overnight and early Sunday over the Illinois counties. Also
still looks like light rain will move into central and northeast
Missouri on Sunday morning. Latest HRRR and RAP suggest that this
precipitation will not reach the area until mid morning so have
delayed the onset of the light rain by just a bit. Otherwise the
rest of the forecast still looks on track.

Britt

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CST Sat Dec 5 2015

Upper level shortwave across the Central Plains will move toward the
lower Missouri and middle Mississippi River Valleys tonight. This
will cause a gradual increase in high and mid level clouds from the
west and a slight chance of light rain showers entering parts of
central Missouri by daybreak. Otherwise, last vestages of the
surface ridge to our east will contribute to another night of fog
development, especially across parts of south central and southwest
Illinois. Not sure if the fog will be as widespread or dense as the
past two mornings though as inversion should be weaker. It may be
that the fog remains confined to just the river valleys,
especially across the St. Louis Metropolitan Area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Sat Dec 5 2015

Aforementioned shortwave should pass through the FA during the day
on Sunday. Models are in very good agreement with the speed of
this system, with trof axis near the MO/KS border at 12z
progressing to the lower Ohio River valley by 00z in the evening.
This mornings UA data indicates that AMS is extremely dry over the
central CONUS from the northern Plains into the Gulf coast, but
all of the guidance suggests a strong surge of lower level
moisture into the region ahead of the upper level system later
tonight and into Sunday. So in spite of the initially bone-dry
AMS, believe that the progged moisture return will be adequate
with the expected lift from shortwave to continue mention of light
rain across the CWA during the day, with the precip then winding
down east of the Mississippi River on Sunday evening. Have
generally gone with consensus of MOS PoPs...in the chance/slight
chance range.

The cloudiness associated with this system will likely make
Sunday`s high temps 5 to 10 degrees cooler than those of today
along and west of the Mississippi River.

However, more mild early December weather appears to be in the
offing for much of the upcoming work week, as a westerly flow
regime dominates across the CONUS. This pattern will keep the
colder air bottled up well to the north of the region, so
temperatures should remain well above early December averages and
have maintained going trends by skewing forecast towards the
warmer guidance. GFS would suggest very warm temps during the
latter half of the week, but did not go that extreme as there is
more than a little discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF in the
intensity of the Thursday shortwave and the resultant temperature
advection associated with it.

Disturbances embedded in this zonal flow are progged to clip the
area about every 24 to 36 hours through Thursday, however with
such rapid movement believe that the moisture available to each
of these features will be fairly limited. This, combined with the
fact that the main dynamics will be over the upper Missouri and
upper Mississippi Valleys, should mean the rain threat in our FA
will remain quite low.

However this may change by the end of the forecast period, as
there is consensus in the medium range guidance that a much
deeper trof that forms over the western U.S. later in the work
week begins to push into the Plains. Some warm-advection driven
rain could threaten as early as Thursday night/Friday, but the
better chances should hold off until next Saturday, when upper
level dynamics associated with upper trof push into the mid-
Mississippi Valley.

Truett

.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Dec 5 2015

Not many changes from the prev TAFs. With CI remaining in place
overnight, believe FG development impacting SUS/CPS appears
unlikely. Sely winds will become swly ahead of the approaching
cdfnt, then wly, then nwly behind the fnt. Cigs will gradually
lower ahead of the fnt and expected to reach MVFR along and just
behind the fnt. Can not rule out IFR cigs impacting all sites
except for COU. However, if these cigs develop, believe they will
be short lived. Mdls also indicate that FG may develop after
clouds clear out. This seems unlikely with drier air advecting
into the region.

Tilly

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

322 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY...MOSTLY CLEAR...AND RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1254 AM EST SUNDAY...MORE TWEAKS TO SKY COVER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PER LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. 01 UTC RAP LOW LEVEL MOISURE PROGS SHOWING THE
BEST IDEA FOR ITS EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT, BUT THAT`S NOT
SAYING TOO MUCH AS ALL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO VARYING DEGREES ON
THIS. IT`S ALSO ANYONE`S GUESS ON ACTUAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
EVENTUAL OVERNIGHT LOWS GIVEN CLOUDY/CLEAR AREAS AND THE FACT THAT
MANY SITES HAVE ALREADY REACHED FORECAST MINIMUM VALUES AS OF 900
PM. SAVING GRACE IS THE FACT THAT SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
RATHER SMALL AND WITH THE LACK OF WIND OR ADVECTIVE PROCESSES I
FEEL MOST SITES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SEE READINGS FALL A FEW
MORE DEGREES. WITH THE NARROW TD DEPRESSIONS IN PLACE PATCHY
MIST/FOG STILL A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE, MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT (KCDA ALREADY SHOWING PATCHY BR/FG).
OUTSIDE OF THESE ADJUSTMENTS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE
A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 247 PM EST SATURDAY...
HEADING INTO SUNDAY...SHOULD SEE ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND/OR
PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR EARLY DECEMBER...WITH HIGHS
47-52F.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 316 AM EST SUNDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS MID
ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY. THIS PLACES FORECAST AREA IN WEAK
TROUGHINESS WHILE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

UPPER LOW MOVES TO MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT...SPAWNING
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM THEN TRACKS TO THE
EAST DURING TUESDAY...PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK.
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS...BUT DRY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 316 AM EST SUNDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE TO MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES NEAR OR SOUTH OF 40N
70W THURSDAY. EXPECT MOST OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY FOR AT LEAST
A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES...JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS WE
TRANSITION TO DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILD AIR FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. EVEN
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN 30S LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK BUT NOT VERMONT. FG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT MPV AND SLK
DOWN TO VLIFR...EXPECT THESE STATIONS TO STAY DOWN MOST OF THE
NIGHT. MSS HAS MVFR CEILINGS WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING
THERE. NOT EXPECTING FOG FORMATION AT THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES...THOUGH MAYBE TEMPO TOWARDS SUNRISE...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES/MV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

107 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 242 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES EAST AS WELL. WEAK UPPER LOW
SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY BUT THIS PLACES AREA IN
WEAK TROFINESS WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROF/FRONT SLIDING ACROSS FA
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER. TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 PM EST SATURDAY...A SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC-ZONAL FLOW
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING
CYCLONIC AT TIMES AS SHORTWAVES DROP INTO MEAN FLOW.

WEAK SYSTEMS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE WED NGT INTO
THURSDAY THEN PERHAPS ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
BEFORE MORE RIDGING POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCE IN MODELS BUT GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY TIMING DIFFERENCES IN A
PATTERN LIKE THIS AND LITTLE PRECIPITATION AS WELL...NOTHING OF ANY
CONSEQUENCE.

THIS FLOW CONTINUES THE ABOVE NORMAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE TUESDAY WITH
WARMING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

ATTM...NO CLEAR INDICATIONS OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE
VALLEYS (OR EVEN MOUNTAINS) FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK BUT NOT VERMONT. FG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT MPV AND SLK
DOWN TO VLIFR...EXPECT THESE STATIONS TO STAY DOWN MOST OF THE
NIGHT. MSS HAS MVFR CEILINGS WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING
THERE. NOT EXPECTING FOG FORMATION AT THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES...THOUGH MAYBE TEMPO TOWARDS SUNRISE...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...NEILES/MV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

106 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE AT TIMES. A SERIES
OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATER IN
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A THICK AREA OF STRATUS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT... WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT RISK FOR FOG FORMATION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED IN
PLACE THIS EVENING UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PER 00Z BUF
SOUNDING AND RECENT AVIATION SOUNDINGS. THE CLEARING SKIES THIS
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL FOG AND
VERY LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
QUICKLY RE-SATURATES THE LOW LEVELS.

EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO BEGIN TO REFORM BY LATE EVENING AND THEN
EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. UNLIKE THE
PAST FEW DAYS...FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. 12Z AND 18Z NAM BUFKIT POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE BASED INVERSION...AND INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY TONIGHT ALSO SUGGEST MORE OF A FOG SCENARIO.

FOG WAS WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THIS MORNING JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS MUCH
OF OHIO...LOWER MICHIGAN...AND INDIANA. A BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY
FORECAST FROM THE HYSPLIT MODEL SHOWS AIR ARRIVING IN BUFFALO AT 12Z
SUNDAY HAS ORIGINS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND CENTRAL LAKE ERIE...WHERE
DENSE FOG WAS FOUND THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM TRENDS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

THE HRRR AND NAM DO NOT COMPLETELY AGREE ON HOW THE FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL EVOLVED... BUT THE GENERAL CONSUS SUPPORTS MUCH OF WESTERN NY
SEEING FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ONE AREA OF TRUE RADIATION FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD FROM NW PA (WHERE 11-3.9 IMAGERY AND OBS SHOW
DENSE FOG CURRENTLY IN PLACE) INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT... WITH
MAINLY INTERIOR VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING LOCATIONS ALONG RIVER VALLEYS
DEVELOPING FOG. THE OTHER AREA OF FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP
EASTWARD OUT OF ONTARIO... WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE ERIE AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...ENHANCED BY THE DEVELOPING
LAKE BREEZE AND THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD. THUS THIS SHOULD
HELP TO SPREAD AREAS OF FOG FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ACROSS THE
ROCHESTER.

THE ADDITIONAL WRINKLE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR AND RURAL LOCATIONS... AND THUS THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE FORMATION OVERNIGHT WHERE
DENSE FOG DEVELOPS.

SUNDAY EXPECT FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO HOLD STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
THEN MIX OUT IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE
FOG AND STRATUS POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY WELL. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND BELOW
GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWS IN THE MID 30S ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND LEWIS COUNTY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS ASSUMING THE FOG AND
STRATUS BURNS OFF BY MIDDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE FOUND STRETCHED ACROSS THE CONUS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ON THE MILDER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR EARLY
DECEMBER. SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WITH THE ONLY STORM SYSTEM EAST OF THE ROCKIES BEING A MID-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY THEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY.
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH THIS LOW CENTER
WITH NO THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS
COULD MAKE FOR SOME SLICK ROADWAYS IN AREAS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS FALL
BELOW FREEZING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S NEAR THE LAKES TO THE
U20S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY HAVE LEANED ON THE 05/12Z NAM SHOWING A RETURN
OF LOW CLOUDS UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TRAPPING LAKE MOISTURE
BENEATH A 925MB SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER HAS
THEREFORE BEEN INCREASED TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

UNDER A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST. WINDS VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL EDGE UP A LITTLE
WARMER WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE L/M 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE M30S NEAR THE LAKES TO U20S WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATING A POTENTIAL
FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED 500MB PATTERN GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH.

05/12Z GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODELS ALONG WITH GEFS ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW DISAGREEMENT IN THE 500MB PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. EACH MODEL/MEMBER IS SHOWING DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS
CONTINUES TO MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF ANY MINOR
PRECIPITATION EVENTS AS THESE SHORTWAVES CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION INCREASES.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO AMPLIFY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH ALSO
LEADS TO A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALTHOUGH
TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS REMAINS MISALIGNED. THIS WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND. BETTER CONFIDENCE IS FOUND IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES
THIS WEEKEND. WHILE PACIFIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS TOWARD 50 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED
500MB RIDGE /IN WHICH NAEFS ENSEMBLES BUILD OVER +2SD/ WOULD MAKE
60S A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO THE SECOND FULL WEEK OF DECEMBER...BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE
PACIFIC BASED FLOW COULD TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN OVER THE LOWER 48.
A NICE SIZED CHUNK OF -12 TO -16C H85 AIR IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOULD THIS AIRMASS MAKE IT TO THE OHIO VALLEY...IT WOULD BE IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO EVENTUALLY GENERATE SOME SIGNIFICANT LAKE
SNOWS EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THERE ARE PLENTY OF `IFS`
WITH THIS SCNEARIO THOUGH...BUT IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO PREPARATIONS FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY SEASON.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEAR VFR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR IFR/LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
FOG AND LOW STATUS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS NW PA/NE OH AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND EXPECT THIS WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. NEED TO STRESS THIS IS AN ALL OR NOTHING SITUATION FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND WHILE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VIS AT OR BELOW
AIRFIELD MINIMUMS IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME...IF THIS FOG DOESNT
DEVELOP INTO A TAF SITE IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO AT OR BELOW AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING IF THE FOG BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN STRATUS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

.MARINE...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RARE LONG STRETCH OF LIGHT WINDS AND
FLAT WAVE ACTION ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

614 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW AND WEAK OFFSHORE SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY
COASTAL RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
BACK SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY A WEEKEND WARMUP.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NASCENT
TROUGH AND A VIGOROUS APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR STRATIFORM RAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...THE DAY WILL START OFF
WITH AT LEAST PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST ADVECTING IN FROM THE
OCEAN AND SPREADING INLAND. MUCH OF THIS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MILD AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN
STORE FOR TODAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVING US HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT DESPITE A FAIRLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS ON MONDAY THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE CONFINED TO THE COAST.
GIVEN THAT THERE COULD BE A CONSIDERABLE WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT IN
BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS GETTING THE AMOUNTS RIGHT IS A BIT
TRICKY AS THEY WILL BE HIGHLY SUBJECT TO SMALL DEVIATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THE FLAT WAVE OFFSHORE THAT MOVES UP THE COAST. COASTAL NC
LOOKS TO NET THE MOST RAIN WITH ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.
LOW AMPLITUDE ALOFT TAKES OVER MONDAY NIGHT AND THUS RAPID DRYING
FOR CLEARING SKY THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. ANY COOL ADVECTION
ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM IS UNDONE ON TUESDAY SO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN A WEAKLY WARM ADVECTING BUT ALSO SHALLOW MIXED
REGIME.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH POISED TO SWING THROUGH OUR
LONGITUDE LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
MOISTURE-CHALLENGED ENOUGH AND ALSO HAVE A POOR ENOUGH SURFACE
REFLECTION TO NOT BRING MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. FLOW QUICKLY
FLATTENS THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER SEASONABLE AND DRY DAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL RETURN
FLOW THEN GET UNDERWAY BUT NOT SO MUCH IN THE TIMING. RIDGE MAY WELL
BE IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES ON FRIDAY ACCORDING TO QUICKER PROGS
WHEREAS OTHERS WISH TO DELAY THINGS BY ABOUT A DAY. EITHER WAY NO
PRECIP CHANCES TO BE HAD. THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
BECOME QUITE DEEP WHICH COULD TRANSLATE TO SOME LOCAL WEATHER NOT
LONG AFTER THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND THE 00 UTC
EXPERIMENTAL RUN OF THE HRRR IS SHOWING IF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING
OVER ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMYR AND KCRE GENERALLY BETWEEN 9 AND 12
UTC BEFORE BREAKING UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP
ON MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS A COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HAVE CANCELED THE ADVISORY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS SEAS WILL HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA BY THEN.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE NE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
TODAY...WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... AN UPPER LOW WILL SWING BY JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY. DESPITE THIS FEATURE HAVING SOME STRENGTH TO IT
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO SURFACE REFLECTION. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME VISIBILITY-LIMITING SHOWERS AROUND WIND AND SEAS
SHOULD ACTUALLY CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL ABATING TREND AND NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE IT DOES APPEAR TO INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LEAD TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL OFF
DELMARVA COAST. THIS MAY SLIGHTLY AND BRIEFLY BOLSTER LOCAL WINDS
BUT BY TUESDAY THE DIMINISHING TREND RESUMES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS WEAKLY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... PRESSURE PATTERN GROWS SO WEAK ON WEDNESDAY
THAT WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT VERY LIGHT WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE
VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL GIVE SEAS A CHANCE TO
SETTLE TO NEAR MINIMAL VALUES OF 2 FT OR LESS. ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY OFF THE VA COAST ON THURSDAY WILL BRING A
TURN TO W OR NW AND A VERY SHORT-LIVED SURGE IN WIND SPEED. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY HOWEVER AND EXPECT THAT A GENERAL 10 KT
FORECAST WILL STILL BE THE FLAVOR OF MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DRH
MARINE...REK/MBB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

302 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH
WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS NASCENT TROUGH AND A VIGOROUS APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR STRATIFORM RAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...THE
DAY WILL START OFF WITH AT LEAST PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST
ADVECTING IN FROM THE OCEAN AND SPREADING INLAND. MUCH OF THIS
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MILD AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR TODAY...WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS GIVING US HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 40S.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT DESPITE A FAIRLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS ON MONDAY THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE CONFINED TO THE COAST.
GIVEN THAT THERE COULD BE A CONSIDERABLE WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT IN
BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS GETTING THE AMOUNTS RIGHT IS A BIT
TRICKY AS THEY WILL BE HIGHLY SUBJECT TO SMALL DEVIATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THE FLAT WAVE OFFSHORE THAT MOVES UP THE COAST. COASTAL NC
LOOKS TO NET THE MOST RAIN WITH ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.
LOW AMPLITUDE ALOFT TAKES OVER MONDAY NIGHT AND THUS RAPID DRYING
FOR CLEARING SKY THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. ANY COOL ADVECTION
ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM IS UNDONE ON TUESDAY SO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN A WEAKLY WARM ADVECTING BUT ALSO SHALLOW MIXED
REGIME.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH POISED TO SWING THROUGH OUR
LONGITUDE LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
MOISTURE-CHALLENGED ENOUGH AND ALSO HAVE A POOR ENOUGH SURFACE
REFLECTION TO NOT BRING MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. FLOW QUICKLY
FLATTENS THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER SEASONABLE AND DRY DAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL RETURN
FLOW THEN GET UNDERWAY BUT NOT SO MUCH IN THE TIMING. RIDGE MAY WELL
BE IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES ON FRIDAY ACCORDING TO QUICKER PROGS
WHEREAS OTHERS WISH TO DELAY THINGS BY ABOUT A DAY. EITHER WAY NO
PRECIP CHANCES TO BE HAD. THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
BECOME QUITE DEEP WHICH COULD TRANSLATE TO SOME LOCAL WEATHER NOT
LONG AFTER THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND THE 00 UTC
EXPERIMENTAL RUN OF THE HRRR IS SHOWING IF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING
OVER ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMYR AND KCRE GENERALLY BETWEEN 9 AND 12
UTC BEFORE BREAKING UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP
ON MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... AN UPPER LOW WILL SWING BY JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY. DESPITE THIS FEATURE HAVING SOME STRENGTH TO IT
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO SURFACE REFLECTION. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME VISIBILITY-LIMITING SHOWERS AROUND WIND AND SEAS SHOULD
ACTUALLY CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL ABATING TREND AND NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE
IT DOES APPEAR TO INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LEAD
TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL OFF DELMARVA COAST. THIS MAY SLIGHTLY
AND BRIEFLY BOLSTER LOCAL WINDS BUT BY TUESDAY THE DIMINISHING TREND
RESUMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEAKLY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... PRESSURE PATTERN GROWS SO WEAK ON WEDNESDAY
THAT WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT VERY LIGHT WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE
VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL GIVE SEAS A CHANCE TO
SETTLE TO NEAR MINIMAL VALUES OF 2 FT OR LESS. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
MOVING RAPIDLY OFF THE VA COAST ON THURSDAY WILL BRING A TURN TO W
OR NW AND A VERY SHORT-LIVED SURGE IN WIND SPEED. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE QUICKLY HOWEVER AND EXPECT THAT A GENERAL 10 KT FORECAST WILL
STILL BE THE FLAVOR OF MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DRH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1238 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAINED STALLED JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. RAIN WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN MOVE NORTH. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SUBTLE AND GRADUAL WARMUP.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TIME SKIES
ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC WITH A FEW COASTAL CLOUDS BRUSHING ASHORE
NEAR CAPE FEAR. FAST ANIMATION OF LONG LOOP IR SHOWS SHOWER
OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE AIDING THE MORE LANDWARD PUSH OF CLOUDS.
KLTX RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED HEAVY
SHOWERS 50NM OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE MOVING TOWARD THE
SW AT 30 KTS. KLTX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS NE WINDS 25-30 KT IN
THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SATELLITE DERIVED
AND BLENDED PWAT VALUES SHOW A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH DRY CONTINENTAL AIR HOLDING ACROSS OUR LAND
ZONES...WITH NE SC SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN COLUMN VAPOR CONTENT. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRES AXIS REMAINED WEDGED NE TO SW
ALONG THE INTERIOR OF THE CAROLINAS.

ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL INLAND MOISTURE FLUX IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
IT DOES NOT APPEAR A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUD COVER INLAND BEYOND THE
COASTAL INTERIOR. GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER RH...PATCHY STRATUS FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. MORE
LIKELY THAN CLOUDS OFF THE WATER. FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE
WILL LEAVE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY COVER IN PLACE. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. FOG WILL REMAIN INHIBITED FROM
BECOMING SIGNIFICANT DUE TO THE BL WINDS. MINIMUMS SHOULD SETTLE
IN THE MID 40S NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 30 INLAND.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE RIDGING DOWN
THE COAST SUN...MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. MORNING
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK UP BUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CLOUD
COVER WILL START INCREASING OVER THE AREA...EXPANDING FROM EAST TO
WEST. INCREASED CLOUD WILL BE THE RESULT OF WEAK TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATER IN THE DAY. PRECIP
CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE HANGING OFFSHORE AND
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WORKING TO KEEP THE REGION DRY. HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

CLOUD COVER AND THE PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INCREASING SUN NIGHT AS
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. RAINFALL SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. LATER SUN NIGHT AND ON MON MORNING
ENHANCEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE AIDS
DIVERGENCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COASTAL TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT ARE SHIFTED NORTHEAST DURING MON AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST. IN MOST AREAS PRECIP WILL END AROUND MIDDAY BUT ALONG THE NC
COAST RAIN MAY LINGER INTO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS/THICKNESS
QUICKLY REBOUNDING IN THE WAKE OF THE 5H TROUGH. CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP KEEP LOWS SUN NIGHT ABOVE CLIMO. HIGHS ON MON WILL END UP
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS MON NIGHT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AS RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK. A DEEP W-NW
FLOW OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PCP OUT OF FORECAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST
LATE WED INTO THURS WITH A DEEPER S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS IN A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LATE WED INTO THURS BUT THIS WILL ONLY PRODUCE
SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A WEAK RIDGE WITH MORE OF AN ZONAL FLOW WILL
PERSIST THURS INTO FRI BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY THE WEEKEND. NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PCP
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL
AIDED BY RIDGING ALOFT AND A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RETURN FLOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP
ON MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT DUE TO A STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE NE AT 20 TO 25 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO
30 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT AND UP TO 8 FT NEAR FRYING
PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH RIDGING DOWN THE COAST MAINTAINING ENHANCED
NORTHEAST FLOW. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX AND WINDS WILL
DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS SEAS TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. MID LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS MON WITH SURFACE FLOW BACKING
FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. SECONDARY SURGE
DEVELOPS LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS HIGH BUILDS IN BUT SURGE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE HEADLINES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WIND FLOW WILL BE N-NW AS THE LOW PULLS
FARTHER AWAY ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AT THE
SURFACE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH MID WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. BY LATE WED INTO THURS THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THEREFORE NW-N WINDS 10 TO 15
KTS EARLY WED WILL LOWER TO LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH WED. SEAS UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT EARLY THURS WILL BE DOWN LESS THAN 3 FT HEADING INTO
WED AND WILL SPIKE UP JUST SLIGHTLY WED NIGHT INTO THURS AS WINDS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WED VERY BRIEFLY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
OVERALL SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS WITH A LONGER PERIOD SE-E SWELL
MIXING IN.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...REK/RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DRH
MARINE...REK/RJD/III/RGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

259 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND QPF CHANCES TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH SOME TIMING AND
PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH QPF TUE/TUE NIGHT. WE PREFER THE GFS THAT
HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT SET UP.

FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 10KT FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EAST. THE HRRR INDICATES SOME FOG ONCE AGAIN IN THE FAR
EAST SO WILL ADD. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND MAY EVEN BE A BIT WARMER WITH
MORE WESTERLY WINDS NEAR THE SFC.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WEST LATE AND WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR 30.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

FOR TUE...A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH SOME RAIN...FREEZING RAIN
EARLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE GFS HAS SOME QPF
SOUTH WITH THE NAM FURTHER NORTH...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
BROADBRUSHED QPF.

ON TUE NIGHT...ANY PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE EAST. IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN THAT COULD MIX WITH A FEW FLAKES BEFORE ENDING.

ON WED...MORE VERY WARM CHINOOK MODIFIED AIR MOVES IN. TEMPS
SHOULD BE INTO THE 40S PERHAPS EVEN WARMER FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NO
SNOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS DEPICT A MUDDY ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION TO A
DEEP CENTRAL CONUS TROF FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS WILL EXPECT
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW LATE ON THURSDAY... WITH A TURN TO SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS
AND A GREATER CHANCE FOR WIDEPSREAD LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCANT
AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY... SO NET IMPACTS OF THE EXPECTED LIGHT
SNOW ON OVERALL TEMPERATURE PATTERNS SHOULD BE SLIGHT. THUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUMP TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE LONG TERM
NORMALS YET ON SATURDAY /EXPECTED HIGHS NEAR THE FREEZING POINT/
AND AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

WITH SHALLOW FOG PUSHED OF THE EAST EDGE OF THE FA... EXPECT FAIR
SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
TROF SHOULD DEVELOP INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITHBKN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE FA
FROM 06Z TO 15Z.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GUST/DK
AVIATION...GUST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1132 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015

UPDATED CODING FOR FOG ADV AT THE BOTTOM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015

COORD WITH WFO MPX...FOG IN THAT ELBOW LAKE-FERGUS FALLS-DETROIT
LAKES AREA IS MORE DENSE AND WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV FOR THAT
AREA TIL 15Z. THIS IS ON THE BACKEDGE OF THE CLEARING. WILL
MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG MOST OTHER PLACES IN THE SNOW MELT AREA.
WEBCAMS SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS LIKELY ADDED
AS SNOW MELT WAS CONSIDERABLE THIS PAST DAY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPS WITH VERY MILD TEMPS
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LARGER SCALE FEATURES...BUT STRUGGLING WITH LOW
LEVEL TEMPS. THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON TEMPS IN
THE NEAR TERM AT LEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN MELTING OF SNOW IN THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 30S OVER THE SNOW FIELD
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG
OVER THE SNOW AREAS. MODELS DO NOT INDICATE TOO MUCH
FOG...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING SOME LOWER VSBYS OVER
MN SINCE WINDS HERE MAY BE FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 20S.

FOR SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR +10C BY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO THE WARMEST OVER THE SNOW FREE
AREAS IN NORTHEAST ND.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 MPH THAT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015

ON MONDAY...925MB TEMPS COOL SOME BUT ARE STILL WELL ABOVE 0C.
THERE SHOULD BE WESTERLY SFC WINDS THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN BOOST
TEMPS TO AROUND 40 PERHAPS EVEN MID 40S FOR SOME WITH MINIMAL SNOW
COVER.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAINING
A BIT ELEVATED. THIS SHOULD MEAN A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND 30.

FOR TUE...A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING A
LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW
EARLY TUE MORNING FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN...BUT WITH TEMPS SO MILD
NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE ANY TYPE OF THREAT SO WILL KEEP IT ALL
LIQUID RAIN FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN WARM TO AROUND 40 OR
THE MID 40S FOR ALL AREAS WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE EAST.

FORECAST STARTING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS A BIT ON THE ACTIVE
SIDE...POTENTIALLY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE AN UPPER LOW
BARRELING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING. WHICH MEANS RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW POSSIBLY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN
MN...WHERE THE ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FORECASTED. MODELS ARE
TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WETTER WITH THE WED NIGHT/THU
SYSTEM. A SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS THEN COMING FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
HAS A POTENT LOW MOVING NE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF KEEPS IT A BIT FURTHER EAST AND A LITTLE WEAKER. THE ECMWF
HAS TRENDED WESTWARD A BIT WITH THIS ONE...BACK FURTHER WEST INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SO...A CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY SEEMS
REASONABLE...WITH COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK`S
WARMTH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015

BEMIDJI TAF SITE IS ON THE NW EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS SUCH VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT
SOME REDUCTION IN CIGS AND/OR VSBYS TO IFR RANGE PSBL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG DTL-FFM AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS PKD-ADC.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBYS FARGO AREA AND THEN
INTO NW MN. COULD HAVE SOME AROUND GFK/TVF AS WELL BUT LEFT OUT
FOR NOW. DVL AREA SHOULD REMAIN FOG FREE. ONCE ANY FOG ISSUES ARE
DONE WITH THE REST OF THE PD WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ027-028-030-031-
040.

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...RIDDLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1129 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 MPH THAT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015

ON MONDAY...925MB TEMPS COOL SOME BUT ARE STILL WELL ABOVE 0C.
THERE SHOULD BE WESTERLY SFC WINDS THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN BOOST
TEMPS TO AROUND 40 PERHAPS EVEN MID 40S FOR SOME WITH MINIMAL SNOW
COVER.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAINING
A BIT ELEVATED. THIS SHOULD MEAN A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND 30.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ027-028-030-031-040.

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...RIDDLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

1028 PM PST SAT DEC 5 2015

.UPDATE...JUST SENT AN UPDATE TO EXTEND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
ALONG THE COAST UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY. SEAS AND CORRESPONDING COASTAL
SURF WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH UNTIL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
DIE DOWN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. -WRIGHT

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/06Z TAF CYCLE...WIND SPEED SHEAR WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT AT THE COAST, INCLUDING NORTH BEND AND
ROSEBURG. WIND SHEAR WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE KMFR TAF FOR TONIGHT.
WHILE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE ARE LIMITING SPEED SHEAR,
A DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
TONIGHT WITH RAIN AND MVFR CIGS SPREADING INLAND AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION INCREASING. SOME THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA CITY AREA WHERE UPSLOPING WINDS AND SNOWFALL
TONIGHT WILL CREATE VLIFR CONDITIONS. -WRIGHT

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 822 PM PST SAT DEC 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO ANY OF THE HEADLINES THIS EVENING. AN
UPDATE WAS JUST SENT, MAINLY TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WATERS AND COAST TONIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DOZEN STRIKES
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THIS EVENING, AND MODELS INDICATE THIS
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST AS THE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE COAST
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
WE ARE ALREADY GETTING GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH AT SQUAW PEAK, WELL INTO
THE 50S ALONG THE COAST, AND AS HIGH AS 55 MPH AT WEED. BUOY 46015
(15 MILES OFF CAPE BLANCO) IS GUSTING WELL INTO STORM FORCE, AND
SO FAR, WE`VE HAD GUSTS TO 32 MPH AT THE MEDFORD AIRPORT. THE
MYRIAD WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES COVER ALL THIS WELL.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING
BEHIND IT. EVERYBODY OUGHT TO SEE SOME RAIN WITH THIS FRONT, BUT
LATEST NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE WE GET LITTLE TO NONE
IN MEDFORD. I THINK THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT ANOTHER FRONT IS
RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THIS ONE, AND AS A RESULT, THE WINDS NEVER
REALLY SWING AROUND TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT. HOWEVER, I
SEE NO REASON TO REMOVE RAIN ENTIRELY FROM MEDFORD BASED ON THIS,
BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING, IT WILL TAKE A WHILE, AND IT WON`T BE A BIG
DELUGE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ONCE IT DOES GET HERE. -WRIGHT

MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST SATURDAY 5 DEC 2015...THE LATEST ASCAT
PASS AT 19Z SHOED WINDS NEAR 42 KTS OVER MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.
THE LATEST OBSERVATION AT BUOY 15 SHOWS WIND GUST NEAR 45 KTS WITH A
PEAK GUST TO 47 KTS. CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE NEEDED. THE MAIN CONCERN INTO TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG WINDS VERY
STEEP SEAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT,THEN
MOVE INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE ACTION IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY DIMINISHING,
THEN ANOTHER STRONG WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
WE`LL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES AND VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM PST SAT DEC 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL TAKE AIM AT THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS DUE TO A
VERY STRONG AND PERSISTENT CENTRAL PACIFIC JET STREAM, WHICH WILL
REACH SPEEDS EXCEEDING 160KT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT TIMES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, WE`LL SEE AN EXTENSION OF THE JET INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE FIRST SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF THE JET...A STRONG
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...IS BRINGING STRONG GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH VERY HIGH SEAS.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY (CFWMFR) IS OUT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS THE SOUTH WINDS PILE WATER UP ALONG
SOUTH-FACING PORTS, BEACHES AND JETTIES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT, THEN INLAND ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN INLAND
WEATHER IMPACT FROM THE FRONT WILL BE WIND. THIS SYSTEM WON`T BE
QUITE AS WINDY AS THE ONE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO, BUT STILL WARNING-
WORTHY IN MANY AREAS. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SURFACE HERE IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY AND EXPECT SOME GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY.
NUMEROUS WIND HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT, SO PLEASE SEE NPWMFR FOR
MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE MODEL DATA TODAY SUGGESTED ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW POTENTIAL ABOVE 3500 FEET IN PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THINK MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FALLS AS RAIN IN MOUNT SHASTA CITY, BUT IT MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE
TO SNOW FOR A WHILE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW UP ON BLACK BUTTE/SNOWMAN`S SUMMITS AND SOME OF
THE OTHER PASSES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, SO HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE (WSWMFR).

RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVIEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST...THE ADJACENT COAST RANGES...AND EXTREME WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY WHERE 1-3 INCHES IS LIKELY. WEST SIDE VALLEY RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE 0.20-0.40 OF AN INCH RANGE.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND TO THE
COAST WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER,
SNOW IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE SINCE SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOVE 8000 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH ALL THE RAIN EXPECTED WITH THESE SYSTEMS, A FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK FOR RAPID RISES ON STREAMS, CREEKS AND RIVERS (ESFMFR) WAS
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CURRY, COOS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. MODEL
DEPICTIONS SHOW SOME PLACES ALONG THE COAST RECEIVING MORE THAN 10
INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SPILDE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...I WILL FOCUS ON SNOW
LEVELS AND EXPECTED IMPACTS TO SNOWPACK DURING THE EXTENDED. THIS
COULD BE THE BEGINNING TO A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF BUILDING SNOWPACK
OVER THE REGION...WHICH HAS BEEN DEALING WITH A SNOW DROUGHT THE
PAST SEVERAL YEARS.

IT`S BEEN THREE YEARS SINCE 2 FEET OF SNOW DEPTH HAS BEEN MEASURED
AT CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK ON THIS DATE. THE LAST TIME THAT
OCCURRED WAS DEC 5, 2012. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE THE TAIL END OF
ABOUT A TWO-DAY PERIOD OF HIGH SNOW LEVELS...ABOVE 7000 FEET. AN
UPPER TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN ON
WEDNESDAY AND 850MB TEMPERATURES...A RELIABLE INDICATOR OF HOW
WARM/COLD THE AIR MASS IS...BEGIN TO DROP. THOUGH SPECIFIC DETAILS
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK DIFFER...THE GEFS MEMBERS
AGREE ON A COOLER REGIME AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS A 48-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 2 INCHES FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD TRANSLATE
TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. THEN...WITH THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER SHOWING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEEK 2...THIS
SNOWPACK COULD BUILD FURTHER.

SHIFTING GEARS FROM THE SNOWPACK SITUATION TO THE DETAILS OF THE
EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY FEATURES A COLD FRONT SWINGING
THROUGH...DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AND BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST AND CASCADES. OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT
IS GOOD ON THIS EVENT. DETAILS ARE A LITTLE MORE FUZZY ON THURSDAY
BUT THE IDEA OF COLD TROUGHING AND PLENTY OF SHOWERS...WITH UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE CASCADES...IS AGREED UPON BY THE EC AND GFS.
SNOW LEVELS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 5000 FEET. A
RELATIVE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT MORE
PRECIPITATION IS NOT FAR BEHIND AS THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO
BE ACTIVE.

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ORZ030-031.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ021-022.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ023>026.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
CAZ085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET
FOR FOR CAZ080-082.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ084.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-082.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ356.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

822 PM PST SAT DEC 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO ANY OF THE HEADLINES THIS EVENING. AN
UPDATE WAS JUST SENT, MAINLY TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WATERS AND COAST TONIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DOZEN STRIKES
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THIS EVENING, AND MODELS INDICATE THIS
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST AS THE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE COAST
OVERNIGHT.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/00Z TAF CYCLE...WIND SPEED SHEAR WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT AT THE COAST, INCLUDING NORTH BEND AND
ROSEBURG. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...AT THE COAST...IN THE SHASTA VALLEY...AND AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES. VFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE COAST THIS EVENING THEN
SPREADING INLAND TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION DEVELOPING.

SOME THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNT SHASTA CITY
AREA WHERE UPSLOPING WINDS AND SNOWFALL TONIGHT WILL CREATE
VLIFR CONDITIONS. -PETRUCELLI

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST SATURDAY 5 DEC 2015...THE LATEST ASCAT
PASS AT 19Z SHOED WINDS NEAR 42 KTS OVER MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.
THE LATEST OBSERVATION AT BUOY 15 SHOWS WIND GUST NEAR 45 KTS WITH A
PEAK GUST TO 47 KTS. CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE NEEDED. THE MAIN CONCERN INTO TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG WINDS VERY
STEEP SEAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT,THEN
MOVE INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE ACTION IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY DIMINISHING,
THEN ANOTHER STRONG WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
WE`LL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES AND VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM PST SAT DEC 5 2015/

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ORZ030-031.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021-022.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ021-022.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ023>026.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ029.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

407 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

LAST REMNANTS OF STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE TO HUG OUR EXTREME
EASTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WIND BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT IS VERY LIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...SO THUS THE
STRATUS IS HAVING DIFFICULTY EXITING. BOTH THE NAM12 AND RAP13 SHOW
AN EXITING OF THE STRATUS DEEPER INTO IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PROBLEM IS HOWEVER IS THE FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING IN OUR
EXTREME EAST. THEREFORE ONE WONDERS IF THE CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE
RIGHT BACK INTO OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
SINCE IT IS SO SLOW TO LEAVE THE AREA NOW. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE IS
THAT THIS COULD BE A PROBLEM...SO AFTER SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING
EARLY THIS EVENING... HEDGED TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY IN THE GRIDS
A BIT LATER AND CERTAINLY INCLUDED A MENTION OF FOG IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES FOR A BULK OF THE NIGHT SINCE IT IS SO POORLY MIXED IN THAT
AREA RIGHT NOW.

ELSEWHERE...THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT PICKS UP WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE FOG AT BAY...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT A LOT OF MVFR TYPE
FOG MENTIONED IN THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. LATE TONIGHT AS THE
WINDS AND GRADIENT SLACKEN...THE FOG FROM I 29 AND WESTWARD COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE OF A THREAT ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE THE WINDS SHOULD GO FAIRLY DEAD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.

HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE VERY MILD AS SNOW COVER WANES AND A CROSS
GRADIENT SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SETS UP IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB
TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR TO TODAYS TEMPERATURES...THEREFORE PLACED
HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGHS. MANY OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES WERE WAY
TOO COOL...SO ONCE AGAIN HAD TO BLEND IN WARMER ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL
VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AIR MASS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

SYSTEM TUESDAY HAS RETURNED TO A MORE COHERENT DYNAMIC LOOK...WITH
BEST QG FORCING SLIPPING JUST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AGAIN THE MAIN
DETRACTOR FROM CARRYING TOO HIGH OF POPS...WITH DRY LOWER LEVELS.
EXPECT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...BUT NOT MORE WIDESPREAD.
TEMPS WILL GO INTO A HOLDING PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT WILL GET SOME BETTER MIXING AND SOME
CLEARING BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA. EXPECT THAT
DIMINISHED SNOWCOVER WILL ONLY HAVE NOTICEABLE IMPACT IN PARTS OF SW
MN AND NW IA BY THIS TIME.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.
WILL AGAIN HAVE SPECTER OF HIGHER CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TO
IMPACT INSOLATION...BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A WARM PUSH TO EXPECT SOME
NEAR 60 DEGREE READINGS TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE SNOW WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE GONE...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

ANOTHER SPEEDY PACIFIC WAVE WILL AMPLIFY HEADING TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER WED NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY...LEAVING DAYTIME WITH ENHANCED MIXING POTENTIAL. WARM
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR ONLY LIQUID...AND SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING EARLY ON WITH MIXING. THROUGH THE DAY...SHOULD
BE ABLE TO SEE VERY MILD UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...BEFORE DECOUPLING
LATE DAY AND ALLOWING A DECENT EVENING TEMP FALL.

MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND DISAGREEMENT PRETTY MUCH PUTS THE END OF THE
FORECAST IN DEFENSIVE MODE. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE THREAT FOR
MUCH OF A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA AS THERE IS AT LEAST A
WEAK CONSENSUS OF NORTHERN/SOUTHERN SPLIT WITH WEAKER NORTHERN LEAD
WAVE ACTING TO PUSH BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
ENERGY DUMPED INTO SOUTHWEST SET TO ARRIVE TOWARD THE VERY END OF
THE PERIOD AROUND SUNDAY...AND MORE PROBABLE TO SWING OUT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. FOR THE TIME...WILL
CONTINUE SOME FAIRLY LOW POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH EVER SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A GREATER PROBABILITY OF
JET/FRONT INTERACTION ALONG WITH SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE DRIER LOW
LAYER. DID NOT DWELL GREATLY ON SPECIFIC PRECIP TYPE DUE TO
CARRYING SUCH LOW POPS...BUT IN GENERAL WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT
FOR ALL LIQUID FOR MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MARGINAL FOR SOME
MORNING FREEZING PRECIP IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL...BEFORE COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTHWARD WORKS A TRANSITION OF THREAT TOWARD SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH SLOW COLLAPSE OF DEEPER BAROCLINICITY.
AGAIN...DELAY IN THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE NORTHWARD PATH OF LEADING SHEARING WAVE LEAVES DYNAMICAL SUPPORT
PRETTY NEBULOUS. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED...SO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
PACIFIC ENERGY IMPACTS THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. STILL MILD ON FRIDAY
WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT TEMPS BEHIND BOUNDARY WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE 30S FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS MAINLY 20S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEAR TERM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER ESPECIALLY AT SIOUX CITY...AM CONCERNED ABOUT FOG
DEVELOPING AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY CLOSEST TO THE STRATUS WHICH IS
NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE EAST. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP SHOW THE STRATUS
FIELD SLOWLY EDGING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PROGRESS DEEPER INTO IOWA. HOWEVER IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...THAT SOME OF THAT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
ADVECT INTO THE KSUX AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A FAVORABLE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND AT KSUX WHICH IS A COOL MOIST WIND. THEREFORE FOR
NOW...PUT IN IFR VISIBILITIES FOR KSUX LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. AT KHON AND KFSD...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH GRADIENT AND WIND
TO KEEP MOST FOG AT BAY...BUT DID INCLUDE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH
THE MOIST GROUND.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1141 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

UPDATED TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN NORTHWEST IOWA UNTIL
NOON. AT 9 AM...MANY SITES WERE STILL AT A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
VISIBILITY...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS ONLY VERY
SLOWLY ERODING. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE VISIBILITY WILL
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT THE STRATUS MAY BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF IN
OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES. THEREFORE COOLER HIGHS IN THAT LOCATION
ARE STILL WARRANTED.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE TODAY IN TERMS OF SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY...TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH FAIRLY DENSE AND
WIDESPREAD FOG AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. BEHIND THE TROUGH...PATCHY FOG
PERSISTS AND WITH WEAK WINDS AND STOUT INVERSION REMAINING ACROSS
THE AREA...QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW QUICK THE FOG WILL BURN
OFF...IF AT ALL. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP KEEP FOG AROUND FOR THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY...AND EXPAND IT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
HAVE SIDED WITH CONS SHORT SOLUTION WHICH HAS THE FOG GRADUALLY
BURNING OFF THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. HAVE SIDED WITH COOLER
GUIDANCE FOR TODAY WITH LOWER SUN ANGLE...WEAK WINDS AND POTENTIAL
STRATUS/FOG ISSUES...HOWEVER...IF FOG IS ABLE TO CLEAR...DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES.

FOG POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STOUT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

MONDAY MORNING SHOULD START OUT VERY MILD AS A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP QUICKLY. THE GRADIENT SLACKENS JUST A TOUCH
AND WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. WITH DEEPER MIXING POTENTIAL AND A
CONTINUOUSLY DECREASING SNOW COVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE THIS WESTERLY INFLUENCE CONTINUE
SO VERY MILD LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND WENT AHEAD AND RAISED
HIGHS A BIT AS SNOW COVER WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED BY TUESDAY.
HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE BIG SIOUX RIVER VALLEY TO THE
LOWER 50S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. COULD EVEN GET CLOSER
TO 50 ALONG AND EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ENHANCED MIXING AND LESS SNOW COVER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FAST WESTERLY
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT THE STRONGER FORCING...AND
THUS BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS BUT THE MODELS ALL
OVER THE PLACE ON PLACEMENT SO CONFIDENCE ON JUST WHAT WILL HAPPEN
STILL A LITTLE LOW. WILL SIDE A LITTLE MORE CLOSELY TO THE ECMWF
WITH SOME WEIGHTING FROM THE GFS WHILE MOSTLY IGNORING THE GEM. THE
GEM SEEMS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS AS THIS PATTERN NOT IMPOSSIBLE BUT
A LITTLE OUT OF SEASON WITH LITTLE TO NO HUDSON BAY LOW INFLUENCE
AND SUGGESTING MUCH MORE RIDGING WHICH IS PRETTY FAR NORTH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...STILL ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT BY QUITE SO MUCH FRIDAY THEN
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ002-003-012>014-
020>022-031-032.

NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

957 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

LOW LYING STRATUS AND FOG SETTING UP EAST OF I-29. REALLY A TOUGH
CALL TO FIGURE OUT HOW QUICKLY STRATUS WILL BURN OFF...IF AT ALL.
FURTHER TO THE WEST...PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...BUT WITH GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING CEILING OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ002-003-012>014-
020>022-031-032.

NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

539 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

LOW LYING SATRATUS AND FOG SETTING UP EAST OF I-29. REALLY A TOUGH
CALL TO FIGURE OUT HOW QUICKLY STRATUS WILL BURN OFF...IF AT ALL.
FURTHER TO THE WEST...PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...BUT WITH GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING CEILING OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

347 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015

MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING MVFR
STRATUS...WITH AN AREA OF IFR-LIFR VISIBILITY ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF I-29 CORRIDOR. EVOLUTION OF FOG IS UNCERTAIN...BUT SIGNS THAT
IMPROVEMENT FROM LOWEST VISIBILITY WILL MOVE EAST WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH 09Z. WITH ABUNDANT SNOWMELT MOISTURE
ADDED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AS SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...COULD SEE FURTHER FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES VALLEY...AND WILL CARRY SOME
MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY FOR ALL LOCATIONS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT ANY FOG WOULD CLEAR BY 15Z-16Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

856 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.UPDATE...

FOG BECAME DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS IN SW SOUTH-CENTRAL WI AROUND/AFTER
SUNSET...WITH VSBYS FALLING TO 1/4 MILE AT MONROE AND MINERAL
POINT FOR A TIME...AND WINDS WERE IN THE 10-13KT RANGE. VSBYS HAVE
RISEN TO 2 MILES OR MORE WITH WINDS INCREASING. HRRR STILL
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AND DRIFTING EAST THRU
THE OVERNIGHT...BUT AREA COVERED BY THE LOW VSBYS HAS SHRUNK IN
THE LATER RUNS. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE 50/50 FOR VSBYS LESS THAN 1
MILE IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE WI THROUGH
09Z...THEN JUMP BY 12Z TO 80 PCT BEFORE BACKING DOWN BY 15Z TUE.

WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DUE TO THE INCREASED
SURFACE WINDS IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS
FORECAST THOUGHT OF CONDITIONS PRODUCING MORE OF A LOW
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG SCENARIO. WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
WITH A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG...BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
NOT EXPECTED.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

IFR/BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUM CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD ALMOST ALL OF SRN
WI AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 1K FT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. PERSISTENT 1 TO 2 MILE VSBYS EXPECTED...WITH A
FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE FOR A TIME. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT STIRRING FROM SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS
LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW CIG/VSBYS AT OR ABOVE 1 MILE SCENARIO
OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS RISING AND VSBYS IMPROVING AFTER MID-MORNING
TUE TO MVFR...THEN VFR BY AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOG
VIRTUALLY ENDED EXCEPT IN A FEW SPOTS. LOW LEVELS BELOW THE
SHALLOW INVERSION REMAIN SATURATED...WITH LIGHT WINDS...ALLOWING FOR
THE CLOUDS AND FOG TO PERSIST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.

DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS LINGERING
DURING THIS TIME...AS SHALLOW INVERSION REMAINS. THUS...KEPT
CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY.

SOME NAM BASED MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST MORE WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH OTHERS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE. NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAINLY LIGHT FOG DURING
THIS TIME...AS WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE
LOW LEVELS. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED ABOVE THE INVERSION AS WELL.
THUS...DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. THINK PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WOULD BE
MOST APPROPRIATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

CONTINUED TO USE THE CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM MODELS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED BY
THE CLOUDS IN MID 40S...AS THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT
OCCURS DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIKELY EXITING EAST BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. A QUICK
SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL AID IN
PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF SATURATION THAT COULD GENERATE SOME
LIGHT QPF...ALL RAIN. TEMPS GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
FREEZING...BUT BY THE TIME IT GETS THIS COLD...WE LOSE ICE CRYSTAL
PRODUCTION...SO RAIN LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY THREAT. WILL KEEP THE
CHCS MAINLY WEST OF MILWAUKEE IN THE EVENING...THEN BRING IT EAST
THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS STILL ON TAP FOR MID WEEK WEDNESDAY. LOOKS
DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT/S LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER AFTER 12Z...BUT THE
MODELS ARE PRETTY FAST IN TAKING IT EAST...SO WILL KEEP WED DRY AT
THIS TIME.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE COMES ACROSS ON THURSDAY AND COULD CLIP
OUR NRN AREAS WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN...BUT THE SOUTH...TOWARD
THE STATE LINE...LOOKS DRY.

QUICK SHORT WAVE RIDGING FOR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGS A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. STILL SHOWS AN EVOLUTION
TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN...TROF WEST/RIDGE EAST...WITH THE
CENTRAL U.S....INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES...SITUATED UNDER THE
ACTIVE PART OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES.

AS THE UPPER FLOW RECONFIGURES...A BROAD TROUGH OF SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ROLL NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN
CHANCES OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALONG THAT
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A TIME. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE /HUGE/ DISPARITY BETWEEN HOW THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY HANDLE THE MAIN ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
WEAKER AND FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SPINS UP A
RATHER ENERGETIC SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE ECMWF ON LAST NIGHTS RUN SUGGESTED A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SNOW WAS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST WI SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RUN THIS
MORNING LOOKS WARMER...BUT STILL HAS A STRONG LOW. IT IS WAY TOO
EARLY TO KNOW HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT. GIVEN THE TWO WARMER
SCENARIOS THOUGH...FOR NOW IT LOOKS BEST TO PLAY IT MOSTLY A RAIN
SITUATION FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL RANGE
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CATEGORY
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PREVENT DENSE
FOG FORMATION DURING THIS TIME. THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH VFR CATEGORY VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

WEB CAMERAS ALONG THE SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN WERE SHOWING
SOME FOG ACROSS THE WATER TODAY. THIS FOG SHOULD LINGER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AS MOIST AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD
LAKE WATERS. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG FROM
FORMING. SOME FOG MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST AIRMASS
LINGERS OVER THE WATERS.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD
GENERATE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

547 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

CHALLENGES TONIGHT INCLUDE CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES. WILL
FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE LATEST RAP 0.5 KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT
AND THE CIRA SYNTHETIC FOG PRODUCT...BOTH OF WHICH CLOSELY MATCH
CURRENT REALITY.

CLEARING LINE AS OF 07.20Z EXTENDS FROM NEAR EAU CLAIRE TO DECORAH...
MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 25 MPH. BEFORE SUNSET...EXPECT AN HOUR
OR TWO OF INCREASING SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN IN COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT AND THEN MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. SHOULD STILL SEE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST
MOVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER GIVEN LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURNING TO THE WEST
AROUND 20 KTS...BUT AREAS EAST OF THE MS RIVER LIKELY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...
INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS INTO THE MID 30S.
FARTHER WEST WHERE SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR FAVORED
COLD SPOTS. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
COVERAGE/RELATIVE IMPACT WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN LAST NIGHT.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME PEAKS OF SUN EARLY TUESDAY...CLOUD COVER
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-
WAVE ALOFT. INITIAL DRY AIR MASS BELOW 700 HPA WILL LIMIT PRECIP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE SOME RAIN REACH THE GROUND TUESDAY
EVENING AS LOWER LEVELS SATURATE AND 850 TO 700 HPA TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN WI. BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-94...BUT EVEN THERE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE
FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE...GENERALLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT ON THURSDAY
GIVEN A VERY WARM START TO THE DAY (LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40 DEGREES) AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM +4 TO +7 CELSIUS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S FOR THURSDAY/S HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL FALL TO SOMETHING MORE COMMON FOR MID-DECEMBER
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S AFTER PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY.

PRECIP-WISE...ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. THERE IS MODEST SPREAD AMONG THE SREF
MEMBERS CONCERNING THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS TROUGH...BUT
IT APPEARS THE BEST SATURATION/LIFT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I-94
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FARTHER SOUTH. THERMAL PROFILE IS
WARM ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING THAT DOES ACCUMULATE TO FALL AS RAIN.

STILL WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MUCH LARGER TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE 07.12Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND MUCH DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO ITS GFS
COUNTERPART. WILL KEEP BROAD BRUSH 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR NOW WITH THE GFS PRODUCING MOST OF ITS
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHEREAS THE ECMWF/S SLOWER SOLUTION
BRINGS AN AREA OF PRECIP FARTHER WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS NOTED ABOVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THIS
WEEKEND...SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN
SNOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STORM TRACK AND THEREFORE
ITS THERMAL PROFILE. WILL BE ABLE TO FINE-TUNE FORECAST AS MODELS
WORK THROUGH SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
CYCLES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

PERIODS OF STRATUS AND SOME BR WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TAF SITES AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES MAINLY THIS EVENING WITH
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO BR DEVELOPMENT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO AROUND
4SM AT TIMES. DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PROMOTING MIXING...DENSE
FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE TAF SITES BEING IN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 15 KFT LOWERING TO AROUND 5 KFT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

243 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

Southerly winds have increased just enough overnight to keep the
widespread dense fog away from the area, at least for now. However,
the last few runs of the HRRR suggests a period of lower
visibilities and low clouds lifting north out of southern Illinois
and affecting areas roughly along and east of Interstate 55 this
morning. The fog and stratus are forecast to gradually shift to our
east by late morning as boundary layer winds increase out of the
south and southwest. However, once we lose the lower clouds, some
mid and high level cloud cover will increase ahead of the next
weather system pushing across the Rockies early this morning.

Satellite data clearly showing the next shortwave trof to affect our
area later today over central Wyoming. This feature is forecast to
race east and bring some mid and high level clouds into our area
during the day along with some very mild temperatures this
afternoon, especially over the west and southwest counties. RUC
forecast soundings indicate a few locations over southwest Illinois
may approach 60 degrees this afternoon as a gusty south to southwest
wind develops over the area ahead of the upper wave. Further east
where low clouds may hang in a bit longer, afternoon temperatures
will not be as mild but still average well above normal as readings
top out near the 50 degree mark. As the shortwave moves across the
area late this afternoon and into this evening, forecast soundings
suggest little in the way of deep moisture in place to support much
more than sprinkles just to our west by late this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

Fast-moving shortwave is progged to sharpen as it crosses the
Mississippi Valley this evening, and should be centered over the
middle of Illinois by sunrise Wednesday. Not a lot of moisture
with this system, so slight chance PoP`s around 20% still look
good.

This system will quickly shift east, and temperatures will steadily
climb, with some lower 60s making an appearance over the southwest
CWA as early as Thursday. A more pronounced plume of warm air will
advect into the area late this week as a broad upper trough deepens
west of the Rockies. The ECMWF has 850 mb temperatures as warm as
12C by Sunday morning, with the GFS a bit cooler at 9C. The
differences are due to the placement of an upper low that is
expected to develop within the trough. The two models are starting
to come into agreement with the general concept of this occurring,
but not in the placement of the low (ECMWF slower and further
south). Right now, highest temperatures are expected on Saturday
with widespread low-mid 60s. ECMWF solution could require this to
extend into Sunday in some areas, although its wetter solution would
hold down temperatures a bit as well.

Have maintained the mention of isolated thunder over the forecast
area Saturday night into Sunday, with a strong low level jet and a
couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE progged to move through the area.
Precipitable water values around 1.3 inches are anomalously high for
mid-December, but heavier rain falling over the course of a couple
days should help keep things in check. Kept the likely PoP`s going
for Saturday night and extended them into Sunday as well, although
if the slower ECMWF solution continues to persist, they may need to
be added into parts of the area for Sunday night as well.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

Light, patchy fog will still be possible at all TAF sites
overnight with lowest vis being at BMI and CMI. Since not thinking
it will be dominate, will just have it as a TEMPO group. However,
3-4sm will be likely at all sites. Lower stratus clouds below 1kft
will likely continue at CMI during the overnight hours, but then
improve during the late morning or around afternoon. High cirrus
also spreading over the sites and then during the late morning,
cigs will likely drop some to around 20kft from 25kft overnight.
This level of cigs/clouds will continue into the evening hours but
then expecting AC to begin to move into the area at 12kft after
3z. Winds will remain southerly through the period and then
increase to above 10kts tomorrow into tomorrow evening.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

214 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS WL DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN THRU THE NEAR TERM.
ONLY INTEREST OF NOTE WILL BE CLD CVR WITH HIGH CLDS STREAMING
INTO DOWNEAST AS A RESULT OF SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM
WL TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DUE TO 1028MB HIGH ACRS
THE CWA.

SKIES HV CLRD ACRS NE ZONES THIS MRNG. STRATUS CONTS TO PLAGUE
CNTRL SXNS OF CWA AND NW ZONES. LATEST 00Z MODELS INDICATING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WL TRY TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF TO SOME EXTENT
THIS AFTN AS TEMPS JUST ABV 900MB WARM. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WL BE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION. RAP, HRRR AND SOME SREF
MEMBERS SHOWING LITTLE MOISTURE RMNS WHILE NAM IS VERY MOIST, WHICH
TENDS TO BE ITS USUAL BIAS. THUS HV GONE PSUNNY ACRS THE AREA.

CLDS WL ULTIMATELY HV THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON MAXES FOR TDA. CDFNT
HAS MVD OFFSHORE WITH HIGH BUILDING IN FM THE WEST. EXPECT TEMPS
WL BE CLDR THAN YDA BUT STILL RMN ABV NORMAL. GNRLY L/M 30S FOR
NRN AREAS WITH ARND 40 FOR SRN ZONES.

FOR TONIGHT H5 RIDGE WL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO S/WV APPCHG LATE
TONIGHT. WV IS CURRENTLY IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND WL RIDE NORTHEAST.
EXPECT WV WL DAMPEN OUT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLD CVR EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. RIDGING ALOFT
OFTEN KEEPS STRATUS CLOUDS SETTLED IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. STRATUS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE AND WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING JUST BELOW FREEZING IN
MOST AREAS, SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, THE TROUGH
WILL COME THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS BECOMING ALL RAIN SHOWERS AS WARMER AIR IS PULLED
NORTHWARD.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE BUT WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTING TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED ON FRIDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME
SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS
THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE LOW LIFTING TO OUR NORTHWEST COMBINED WITH
RIDGING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS
THE RIDGING PUSHES UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST. MILD WEATHER WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER. ANOTHER LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
LIKELY PERPETUATE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLY COMING THROUGH WITH AN OCCLUSION LATE MONDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED INTO TUE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY IN LOW STRATUS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN VARIABLE LOW
STRATUS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT MAY IMPROVE TO
VFR DOWNEAST LATE FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY DOWNEAST WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH
TUE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY FOR WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 25 KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA
FOR THE WEEKEND. A GALE MAY THEN BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
OCCLUSION CROSSES THE WATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1223 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1220 AM UPDATE...
SKIES HV CLRD ACRS NERN ZONES TONIGHT. HV UPDATED T/TD GRIDS TO
CURRENT OBS AND IF SKIES RMN CLR FOR TOO LONG MAY NEED TO LOWER
MINS, BUT THINK THAT A FEW PASSING CLDS MAY KEEP TEMPS IN LINE
WITH FCST LOWS. NO CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS UPDATE.

920 PM...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE MAINE COAST
LATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH. A CLOUD DECK WITH CEILINGS AROUND 4K FT
AGL HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE UPPER PENOBSCOT VALLEY AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY. IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE MUCH
MORE PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER, SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM
ACROSS THE BANGOR AND DOWNEAST REGION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING WITH SOME
BREAKS IN HE CLOUDS LIKELY TO EXPAND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE
00Z KCAR SOUNDING DID SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 4 K FT
AGL WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE CURRENT CEILINGS ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST OF THE UPDATES WERE CENTERED ON THE CLOUD COVER BASED
ON THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS, ALTHOUGH IF NORTHERN
AREAS DO CLEAR OUT IT COULD GET A LITTLE COLDER THAN FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS. MRMS AND CANADIAN RADAR FROM QUEBEC SHOWED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHERN MAINE. KFVE REPORTED
A MIX RAIN/SNOW W/THE FROPA. TEMPS HAVE MAXED OUT WILL DROP AS
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE
SHOWED A BAND OF PRECIP DROPPING SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING W/THE FRONT. NOT MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP IF ANY AT ALL
W/THE BAND. THE BAND OF PRECIP IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT DROPS
SE THIS EVENING. WX ELEMENT WILL BE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. NNW WINDS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES QUICKLY BUILDS E BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS WELL STATED BY THE MIDNIGHT CREW, THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGES WILL BE THE EXTENT OF THE RADIATION INVERSION AS SHOWN
BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WHETHER CLOUDS WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHALLENGE W/THE TEMP
FORECAST. CLEARING SKIES COULD READINGS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
TEENS FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. A WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
WOULD KEEP TEMPS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ATTM, DECIDED TO
USE A CONSENSUS OF THE CONSRAW GUIDANCE AND SHOWED AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LEANED W/UPPER TEENS AND LOWERS 20S NORTH
AND WEST AND MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A LEAST PARTLY SUNNY DAY BUT COOLER W/HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W. THINKING HERE IS THAT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
TAKES PLACE IN THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH. SHOWERS ARE THEN
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. FOR TEMPERATURES
WILL USE THE BIAS CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGH AND THE CONSENSUS RAW
FOR LOWS BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING MAINLY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. THE WIND WILL RANGE FROM 10-15
KTS SUSTAINED W/GUSTS TO 20 KTS. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE
OUTER ZONES. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-4 INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/HEWITT/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

402 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A ZONAL SPLIT FLOW
OF PACIFIC AIR OVER SRN CANADA/THE CONUS. A FAIRLY STRONG SRN BRANCH
SHRTWV IS MOVING THRU THE LOWER LKS TO THE S OF A NRN BRANCH
DISTURBANCE TRACKING THRU NRN ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY. SINCE UPR MI IS
BTWN THESE TWO SHRTWVS/THE MORE PRONOUNCED ACCOMPANYING FORCING AND
LOCAL 00Z RAOBS SHOW VERY DRY MID LVLS...NO SGNFT PCPN IS OCCURRING
OVER UPR MI DESPITE 12HR H5 HGT FALLS THAT WL AT LEAST APRCH 100M.
BUT ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR ADVECTED INTO THE UPR LKS BY STEADY SSW WIND
AND TRAPPED BLO INVRN BTWN ABOUT H925-875 HAS RESULTED IN EXTENSIVE
LO CLD COVER. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DRIZZLE/FOG WITHIN THIS LLVL MSTR
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL...BUT STEADY NEAR SFC WINDS THAT HAVE
RESULTED IN A BIT OF AN INVERTED V NEAR SFC T/TD PROFILE ON THE GRB
RAOB HAS LIMITED VSBY RESTRICTION AT THE REPORTING SITES. TEMPS ARE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL THE REPORTING SITES AT
08Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A TRAILING SHRTWV RDG IS PUSHING INTO MN.
BUT ANOTHER QUICK MOVING PAIR OF SHRTWVS ARE MOVING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLDS/FOG/DRIZZLE THRU
THIS MRNG. POPS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWVS NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ARE THE CHALLENGE FOR TNGT.

TODAY...LARGE SCALE DNVA/QVECTOR DVGC ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING
SHRTWV RDG WL DOMINATE TODAY. SINCE FCST SDNGS SHOW SUBSIDENCE INVRN
LOWERING/STRENGTHENING THRU THE DAY...EXPECT MRNG DRIZZLE OVER
MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND E TO DIMINISH AND END OVER THE E IN THE AFTN.
ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK DIURNAL HEATING WL TEND TO DIMINISH ANY FOG...
CONCERNED THERE COULD BE MORE COVERAGE OF THE FOG THIS MRNG AS LLVL
WINDS ARE FCST TO DIMINISH UNDER SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT.
WITH THE LOWERING INVRN AND DOWNSLOPE S WIND...EXPECT THE LO CLDS TO
AT LEAST PARTIALLY BREAK UP IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP W OF
MARQUETTE DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN TRENDS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WL
TEND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FM THESE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHERE NAM FCST H95 RH INDICATES THE LO
CLDS WL PERSIST UNDER THE INVRN.

TNGT...DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWVS IS FCST
TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA AND BRING SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SATURATION TO
CAUSE AT LEAST SCT-NMRS SHOWERS. MOST OF THE MODEL FCST SDNGS
INDICATE THE LLVLS WL BE WARM ENUF FOR ALL RA DESPITE SOME DYNAMIC/
EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THE INITIALLY DRY MID LVLS THAT IS FCST TO
LOWER H85 TEMPS NEAR 0C. THIS PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE W LATE
WITH PASSAGE OF DEEP FORCING TO THE E. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME FOG
DEVELOPING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTENING FM THE PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUSTAIN MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES INTO TUE MORNING. SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE TUE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY TO
MID TUE AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOIST CONDITIONS AND THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS BY LATE TUE EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

338 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

309 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DENSE FOG REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT PRESS
TIME...BUT LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER WAVE/TROUGH
TRACKING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROBABLY
BE ABLE TO EXERT ENOUGH INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE TO DISLODGE THE
DENSE FOG. WHEN EVIDENCE/OBSERVATIONS RESPOND ACCORDINGLY WILL
MOSTLY LIKELY DROP ADVISORY EARLY. ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF M-59...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT PRODUCES
ADDITIONAL SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS...EXTENDING TO THE 925 MB
LEVEL. OTHERWISE...SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 925
MB LEVEL WILL MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE IRISH HILLS/CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
LOWER MICHIGAN...IN LINE WITH LATEST HRRR...WHICH SHOULD HELP ASSURE
MAXES TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

STRONGER UPPER WAVE/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING
WILL BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET USHERING IN BETTER MOISTURE...AS PW VALUES RISE TO THREE
QUARTERS OF INCH...850 MB DEW PTS UP TO 3 C (PER NAM/EURO)...WITH
SURFACE DEW PTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 40S. WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/SATURATION (925-850 MB)...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...LIKELY GOING TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES DURING
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE
RAINFALL TO INCREASE POPS BY MUCH. DRY SLOT LOOKS TO BE OVERTAKING
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IF SURFACE
WINDS DECOUPLE...FOG MAY REDEVELOP WITH WARM ADVECTION/STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL INVERSION AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY.

YET ANOTHER PACIFIC UPPER WAVE TO TRACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THURSDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF 500 MB LOW/MAX HEIGHT FALL
FIELD MOVING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING. WITH HEIGHT
FALLS DROPPING OFF TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER AND
SUBSEQUENT LACK OF FORCING...THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS LOW (SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE)...DESPITE THIS SYSTEM
HAVING COMPARABLE TO SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE TO WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM.

STRONG BUCKLE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO CLOSED 500 MB LOW
DEVELOPING OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA/SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BE WIDE OPEN (20 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO)...WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
INTO THE MIDWEST/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...SUPPORTED BY BOTH 00Z EURO AND GFS...ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE
MEAN....PRESENTING THE LIKELY HOOD OF RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS NEAR RECORD 850 MB DEW PTS OF 8 TO 9 C
POTENTIALLY SLIDES THROUGH THE CWA.

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...STRONGEST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. WINDS LOOK
TO BE A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...15 TO 25 KNOTS...AS A
SERIES OF LOWS TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THOSE LOWS
WILL ALSO BRING WITH THEM A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1152 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

EXTENSIVE DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS EVENT EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. LITTLE EVIDENCE UPSTREAM TO SUGGEST A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVEMENT OF VISIBILITY DURING THIS TIME.
UNCERTAINTY STILL LIES IN TIMING THE END POINT OF THE 1/4-1/2SM VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...IMPROVEMENT TIED TO ONSET TIMING OF A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT. PREFERENCE STILL LIES WITH THE HRRR MODEL
VISIBILITY OUTPUT...POINTING TO A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR VISIBILITY
TO IMPROVE AFTER 13Z-14Z. STEADY PROGRESSION TOWARD IFR/LOW MVFR
STRATUS THEREAFTER AS GREATER DIURNAL MIXING AND ENSUING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW TAKES HOLD.

FOR DTW...LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO CURRENT DENSE FOG CONDITION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...VISIBILITY HOLDING AT 1/4 TO
1/2SM DURING THIS TIME WHILE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT MAY
WORK TOWARD LIFTING VISIBILITY 10Z-13Z...GREATER POTENTIAL EXISTS
BEYOND 13Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLOWER RESPONSE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN VSBY/CIGS AOB 1/2SM AND/OR 200 FT TONIGHT...LOW TUESDAY
MORNING.

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MEDIUM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ444.

DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1232 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1152 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

.AVIATION...

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN VSBY/CIGS AOB 1/2SM AND/OR 200 FT TONIGHT...LOW TUESDAY
MORNING.

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MEDIUM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 639 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 341 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

DISCUSSION...

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
DISCUSSION...SS/RK
MARINE.......HLO

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

357 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

FORECAST TODAY TO BE CONTROLLED BY A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE FROM
ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER SOUTH DAKOTA EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE PAST COUPLE DAYS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
INCONSITENT AND VARYING FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THIS STORM...BUT THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN BETTER THIS
MORNING AND HAVE USED MAINLY THESE FOR THE FORECAST TODAY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SOME SLEET OR SNOW THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE COMING TO AN END LATE TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AS WELL BASED ON THE
SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S.

WEDNESDAY TO BE QUIET AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN UP INTO CANADA...BUT SHOULD SPREAD
PLENY OF CLOUD COVER INTO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE DAY. THIS TO
KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ONCE AGAIN...DESPITE
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RAMPS UP LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS.
THERE LOOKS TO BE THREE DISTINCT PERIODS WITH A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN ENDING AS
SNOW...A LONG PERIOD FOR A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN NEXT TUES/WED/THURS WHEN A MORE POTENT
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE
GENERAL TEMPERATURE TREND...BUT LOW IN THE SPECIFICS REGARDING
PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND FRIDAY.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INTENSIFYING AND DIVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY. AN
ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS
TO WHERE THE LOW ULTIMATELY DEVELOPS AND WHERE THE BEST LARGE-SCALE
LIFT WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TRACK FOR THIS LOW WILL BE TO
EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.

FOR THE WEEKEND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT BASIN...THIS TIME A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NORTHERN KANSAS AND THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER FRIDAY MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH MODELS PAINTING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS IN TERMS
OF STRENGTH...TIMING...AND LOCATION. THUS...LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL PREVAIL UNTIL GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. WHILE THIS IS ONGOING THE MORE NOTABLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE
FEATURE WILL BE A VERY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. AT THIS POINT IT WOULD APPEAR THE
JET STREAM WOULD FAVOR THE MAIN STORM TRACK TO BE TOO FAR EAST TO
RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE NORTHLAND AS THE TROUGH EJECTS
INTO GREAT PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT TROUGH AXIS THAT MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST COULD
HAVE A STORM TRACK FURTHER WEST WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM BY MID-WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...AND
THIS IS TECHNICALLY OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...THIS
SET-UP COULD PRODUCE ONE OF THE STRONGER STORMS SO FAR THIS SEASON.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
WILL LEAD TO OVERCAST SKIES AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...WITH ONLY WEAK
FORCING NEEDED TO INITIALLY BEGIN PRECIP AS LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY
FREEZING RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS LATE WED NIGHT. BULK OF THE PRECIP
FALLS THURSDAY DURING THE DAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO
MAINLY PLAIN RAIN. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A FASTER EXIT OF THIS
SYSTEM WHICH COULD MEAN A MORE LIMITED WINDOW OF TIME FOR SNOW...BUT
THINKING IN THE COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
THE IRON RANGE/MN ARROWHEAD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD WITH A LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT
FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD END THIS EVENT WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE...BUT THINK THIS POSSIBILITY IS VERY LIMITED. LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 30S WED NIGHT...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
THURSDAY...THEN DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE
FOR A SHORT TIME BUT OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY...WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 30S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
AT LEAST SOME INFLUENCE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. GFS IS A BIT
FURTHER WEST THAN THE ECMWF WHILE THE CANADIAN PAINTS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW
IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY SNOW...WITH THE
LOW PULLING DOWN COLDER CANADIAN AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST NO
MATTER THE EXACT TRACK. HIGHS LOW/MID 30S SUNDAY...THEN MID 20S TO
LOW 30S OR POSSIBLY COLDER FOR MONDAY. LOWS MID 20S TO LOW 30S
SAT/SUN NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MVFR WITH SOME POCKETS
OF IFR CEILINGS COVERED FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AS OF LATE EVENING. THE RAP CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MUCH OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME LOWER STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE OFF.
THAT IS THE GENERAL TREND WE FOLLOWED OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR/RAP ARE
NOT AS WIDESPREAD WITH LOW VSBYS OVERNIGHT AND WE HAVE YET TO SEE
THEM DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT SOME LIFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN HAS DIMINISHED.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NAM INDICATES LITTLE QPF
WHERE THE GFS...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
QPF. WE HAVE VCSH AT KBRD...AND BRING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO
KHYR. MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 29 39 34 / 10 10 0 30
INL 39 25 38 32 / 0 0 10 50
BRD 40 26 40 34 / 10 10 0 20
HYR 40 28 40 34 / 30 40 0 10
ASX 43 31 42 35 / 20 30 0 30

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ140.

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1145 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 42 29 38 / 0 20 30 0
INL 27 41 26 38 / 0 10 10 20
BRD 26 41 26 41 / 0 30 20 0
HYR 28 42 28 41 / 10 40 40 0
ASX 30 44 31 42 / 10 30 40 0

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140.

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1127 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1014 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

Patchy fog is beginning to develop in areas along and east of the
Mississippi River. Visibility guidance from the RAP and the HRRR
still suggests that areas of dense fog will be possible over
south central Illinois after midnight. Have increased cloud cover
as scattered-broken cirrus is streaming over the area in the fast
zonal flow aloft. Rest of the forecast looks in good shape.

Britt

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

Glass

.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Winds have stayed up at KCOU therefore
fog/stratus looks less likely, and stratus has been removed from
the KCOU TAF. Fog/stratus is still possible at KUIN, especially
towards daybreak. Any fog/stratus which develops should lift and
mix out by mid-morning. Winds will turn southwesterly and increase
to around 12kts after 12-15z. Winds will turn westerly after the
passage of a surface trough near or just beyond the end of the
valid TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Fog/stratus is possible towards
daybreak. Any fog/stratus which develops should lift and mix out
by mid-morning. Winds will turn southwesterly and increase to
around 12kts after 12-15z. Winds will turn westerly near or just
beyond the end of the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1016 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1014 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

Britt

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

Glass

.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2015

Kanofsky

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREAT FALLS MT

1045 PM MST MON DEC 7 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
FURTHER UPDATE AS OF 1020 PM...WINDS HAVE BEEN
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED THIS EVENING, AND FORECAST MODELS DO
NOT INDICATE THAT THEY WILL PICK UP AGAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED WINDS DOWN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING TIMING AS IS, BUT HAVE
UPDATED THE STATEMENT TO REFLECT THIS FORECAST ADJUSTMENT. COULSTON

UPDATE FORTHCOMING AFTER MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP GRIDS. RADAR RETURNS INDICATING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF GREAT FALLS. THIS AREA HAS BEEN FILLING IN AND
IS DEPICTED NICELY BY HRRR ANALYSIS. STRONG WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY
WEATHER ISSUE AND ONGOING HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUE. WIND SPEEDS
HAVE DROPPED OFF AGAIN THIS EVENING BUT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
INCREASE WINDS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET
IN BEAVERHEAD...MADISON AND GALLATIN COUNTIES. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES. TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD.

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 18Z AND BECOME GUSTY. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 240 PM MST MON DEC 7 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG AND CONTINUED VERY MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO GLACIER
PARK AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE PLAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS COMBINE WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING GUSTS SPRINGING UP
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT A TIME AS VARIOUS DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW
ALOFT PASS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. MPJ

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHORTWAVE
TROF EXITING OUR REGION AND HEADING INTO EASTERN MT/DAKOTAS BY
WED NIGHT. GOOD CHANCE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY THROUGH WED
EVENING BUT THEN SHOULD STEADILY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THUR
MORNING. ONCE THE RIDGE HEADS DOWNSTREAM ON THURS AFTN, A BROAD,
SLOW-MOVING PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THURS EVE UNTIL EARLY SAT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING BACK INTO THE 30S BY SAT. GIVEN THE FAIRLY
DIFFUSE MOISTURE PATTERN WITH THIS SYSTEM, MOST CENTRAL AND HI-LINE
COUNTIES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECEIVE MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE
OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST MT.
THE BROAD TROF HEADS INTO GREAT PLAINS ON SUN, ALLOWING FOR A
SECOND TRANSIENT RIDGE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE, BUT ANOTHER
MOIST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS CLOSE BEHIND, BRINGING A REPEAT OF THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MON. WARANAUSKAS

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 43 56 48 58 / 30 10 10 20
CTB 35 53 42 53 / 40 10 20 30
HLN 41 56 43 53 / 40 20 10 30
BZN 34 55 36 56 / 40 20 10 40
WEY 18 37 22 38 / 90 60 40 60
DLN 36 50 38 50 / 50 20 10 40
HVR 35 55 42 58 / 50 10 10 40
LWT 39 55 42 57 / 40 10 10 20

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR MTZ011>013-044>047-049>051-054.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR MTZ009-010-014-
048.

SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT
UNTIL 11 AM TUE.

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREAT FALLS MT

1020 PM MST MON DEC 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FURTHER UPDATE AS OF 1020 PM...WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LIGHTER THAN
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, AND FORECAST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THAT THEY
WILL PICK UP AGAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED
WINDS DOWN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA UNTIL THEN. WILL KEEP
THE HIGH WIND WARNING TIMING AS IS, BUT HAVE UPDATED THE STATEMENT
TO REFLECT THIS FORECAST ADJUSTMENT. COULSTON

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0015Z.
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO
70 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED AT TIMES.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 240 PM MST MON DEC 7 2015

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR MTZ011>013-044>047-049>051-054.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR MTZ009-010-014-
048.

SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT
UNTIL 11 AM TUE.

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREAT FALLS MT

912 PM MST MON DEC 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING AFTER MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP GRIDS. RADAR RETURNS INDICATING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF GREAT FALLS. THIS AREA HAS BEEN FILLING IN AND
IS DEPICTED NICELY BY HRRR ANALYSIS. STRONG WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY
WEATHER ISSUE AND ONGOING HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUE. WIND SPEEDS
HAVE DROPPED OFF AGAIN THIS EVENING BUT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
INCREASE WINDS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET
IN BEAVERHEAD...MADISON AND GALLATIN COUNTIES. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES. TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 240 PM MST MON DEC 7 2015

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR MTZ011>013-044>047-049>051-054.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR MTZ009-010-014-
048.

SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT
UNTIL 11 AM TUE.

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

300 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW
STRATUS BLANKETING THE EASTERN HALF OF NC THIS MORNING. THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S RAIN
WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY MILD AS A RESULT OF THE
CLOUDS WITH 40S AREA WIDE.

FOR TODAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE VERY STUBBORN TO
SCOUR OUT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS UNDER THE HIGH PRES AREA
IN CONCERT WITH WEAK DECEMBER SUN. AS A RESULT...HAVE BASED FCST
ON COOLER ECS/MET GUID VS THE TOO WARM GFS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
THROUGH THE MID 50S ESP INLAND AREAS WHERE THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE
LAST TO MIX OUT. IN FACT...THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF
THIS BECOMES THE CASE TEMPS WOULD HAVE TO BE LOWERED TODAY. AREAS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD BREAK OUT IN SUN BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED NEAR 60.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...SHOULD SEE QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AS HIGH PRES WILL BE SETTLED OVERHEAD.
DO NOT THINK THAT FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE THOUGH T/TD SPREADS ARE
VERY LOW SO LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO INCORPORATE FOG TO FCST.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE. A SHARP UPPER TROF OVER
THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY PUSHES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THAT
THERE WILL BE QA FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE ATLANTIC MOISTURE
MAY BE TAPPED. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE BUT
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF THE WETTER TREND
CONTINUES. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHUD BE DRY AS A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MINOR
AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER WAVE SET TO PUSH ACRS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE FAST MOVING FLOW THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGHS MODERATE FROM THE LOW TO MID
60S THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FRIDAY. LOWS THU NIGHT
MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW 50S COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE
BUILDING OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND THEN MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE
LATTER HALF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THICKNESS ANOMALY SHUD LEAD TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 70S AWAY FROM ANY COOLING SOUND/OCEAN
BREEZES. UPPER TROF MOVING THRU THE EASTERN STATES WILL PROPEL A
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHO TIMING IS
STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. WILL HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM TUE...THINK THAT IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE REST OF THE
NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING PER MODEL SNDGS...GUIDANCE...AND VERY
LIGHT TO CALM NEAR SFC WINDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. WEAK DECEMBER SUN WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ERODING THE
STRATUS IN THE MORNING...AND HAVE HELD ON TO IFR CIGS UNTIL
14-15Z...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC KEEPING LOWER
CIGS TILL AFTERNOON. SUN WILL FINALLY COME OUT WITH PLEASANT
FLYING CONDITIONS TUE UNDER HIGH PRES AND VERY LIGHT N WINDS LESS
THAN 5 KT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...EXPECTING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER TROF MOVES
THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION EACH
NIGHT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION GOING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...N WINDS CONTINUE 10-20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS STILL
TO 25 KT OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT
THOUGH DIAMOND STILL AT 6 FT. THINK THAT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
PEAKING AND WILL CANCEL ALL BUT CENTRAL WATERS FROM THE SCA. HAVE
ADJUSTED ENDING OF SCA TO 18Z (1PM)...AS WWIV AND SWAN IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TODAY WITH STEADILY
DIMINISHING WINDS. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE WATERS BY THIS
EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VAR LESS THAN 5 KT. THE HIGH
BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT S TO SE WINDS
DEVELOPING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...RATHER BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST IN DIRECTION
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST. THE APPROACH, THEN
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROF WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS WINDS WED NIGHT
THEN NW THURSDAY BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KT. A
MAINLY LIGHT W/SW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 FT
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
158.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1137 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME MID CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA.
ONE BAND NOW MOVING INTO NW MN WITH A CLEAR WEDGE OVER ERN
ND...BUT MORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM. THESE CLOUDS AND A SOUTH
WIND 5-10 KTS KEEPING TEMPS PRETTY STEADY. NOT MUCH CHANGE THRU
SUNRISE. RADARS SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIP ENTERING NW SD NORTH OF
RAPID CITY AND THEN EXTENDING TOWARD BILLINGS MT. 00Z GFS SEEMS
TOO FAR NORTH WITH THICKER MID CLOUD AND LIGHT PRECIP AND PREFER A
BIT FAR SOUTH IDEA VIA NAM AND HRRR WITH THICKER CLOUDS MORE SO
NRN SD THRU TUESDAY MORNING. ANY VERY LIGHT PRECIP MORE SO ALONG
ND/SD BORDER BISMARCK WEST AND SOUTHWEST. IDEA OF ANY SPRINKLES
REACHING SE ND 15Z AND ONWARD STILL LOOKS OK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE FOR TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA
HAS BROUGHT NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
TOWARDS THE MT/ND BORDER BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND ALONG WITH IT THE THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS ALONG WITH WINDS AROUND 5 TO
10 KTS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS VERY
MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 30S. THE FAR EASTERN TIER COULD SEE SOME
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND POSSIBLY FOG...AS THEY HAVE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS THE LONGEST...BUT THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD HAVE
SOME FAIRLY DRY AIR AS THE SHORTWAVE COMES IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOW A LARGE DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME
TOMORROW MORNING. 12Z ECMWF AND SEVERAL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE US COMPLETELY DRY TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP SOME 20-40ISH POPS IN CASE PRECIP MANAGES TO REACH THE
GROUND. ROAD TEMP FORECASTS HAVE SFC TEMPS CLIMBING TO ABOVE
FREEZING AROUND 10 AM...SO IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST THE
COLUMN CAN SATURATE VS WARMING TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS BUT WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE ANY HEADLINES OUT FOR NOW.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO SOUTHERN MN
TOMORROW...AND WITH CLIMBING TEMPS AT THE SFC THERE SHOULD BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE BUT NOT REALLY ENOUGH TO KNOCK US BACK TO NORMAL. KEPT
HIGHS FOR TOMORROW WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SNOW PACK AND
40S IN THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
QUICKLY RETURN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE CLOSER TO THE
AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY DECEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FOR MID WEEK...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE STAYING TO OUR NORTH OVER
CANADA. KEPT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DRY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT A MUCH
HIGHER CHANCE WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE ARE STILL A LOT
OF VARIATIONS IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...SO KEPT HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. COLDER AIR WILL START TO MOVE DOWN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS AT THIS POINT DO NOT HAVE
A STRONG WARM LAYER ALOFT BUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN COOLING OFF AT
ONCE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FREEZING RAIN BUT THINK THE
PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS IN FOR THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY MILD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP
THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKING AT THE 12Z OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE GFS/EC/GEM ANY AGREEMENT STARTS TO FADE PRETTY QUICKLY.
ALL SEEM TO HAVE A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI BUT THE GFS
QUICKLY BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE...THEN TAKES ON MORE OF A ZONAL
LOOK. AT THE SFC THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW FRI INTO
SAT WITH A LOT OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS/GEM HAVE A
SLOWER/WEAKER SCENARIO. FOR NOW WILL USE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE WHICH
FAVORS LOWER PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME FRAME. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE FOR THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME EITHER WITH THE MODELS QUITE
OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER. THE RESULT AGAIN IS MOST OF THIS TIME
FRAME STAYS COVERED WITH LOW PCPN CHANCES. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FRI/SAT THEN DIP DOWN CLOSER TOWARD NORMAL
FOR SUN/MON.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THIS SET OF TAFS. VFR THRU THE PD WITH
PERIODS OF BROKEN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10
KTS THRU TUESDAY MORNING...TURNING MORE WESTERLY TUES AFTN IN THE
RRV AND WEST.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...RIDDLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1129 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER THE STRATUS
DEPARTS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IS POSSIBLE RIGHT
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE DEPARTING STRATUS WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING
TO AROUND 4 SM. A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 5 TO 8
KFT RANGE. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING BUT GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER IN
PLACE...CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

1013 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COASTAL STORM WILL CLIP THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY
CONSEQUENTIAL RAIN WILL BE MONDAY WHEN A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE ...

A GREAT CLASSROOM EXAMPLE. STACKING LOW SETUP IN ITS INITIAL PHASE
AHEAD OF WHICH THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT IS UNDERGOING ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE 295-305K SURFACES THROUGH H8-5 ... A LAYER IN WHICH
PER 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING IS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. PARENT ENHANCED
ASCENT WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW ... SEEING A TIGHT ZONE OF
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION COINCIDENT WITH A THETA-E GRADIENT IN THE N/NE-
QUADRANT. SUBSEQUENT REGION OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE / FRONTOGENESIS
WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS BUT UP AGAINST DRIER AIR TO THE N ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO QUEBEC. HENCE THE REASON...A CLASH
OF TWO AIRMASSES... WHY PRECIPITATION RETURNS VIA WSR-88D RADAR
ARE NOT FURTHER N/W OF THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE I-95 CORRIDOR. ALSO
PER THE 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING ... A LOT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FOR
FALLING PRECIPITATION TO OVERCOME BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. ITS
WHAT MAKES THESE TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENTS THAT MAKES HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE SO USEFUL. A HEAVY WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE HRRR WITH A
CONSENSUS OF HIGH-RES NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE.

HIGHEST POPS FOR S-COASTAL RI AND MASS INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
WILL EXTEND CHANCE POPS UP TO THE TAUNTON AREA ALONG A SW-NE LINE.
MUCH OF THIS RAIN ONGOING NOW SHOULD CLEAR OUT TOWARDS AFTERNOON.
THE TIGHT GRADIENT OF A BOMBING LOW OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES NEARLY
STACKED AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N ... WILL SEE BREEZY NE-
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH TILL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION LATE ALLOWING WINDS TO
RELAX. IT IS ALSO DURING THIS TIME WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL W-E
EROSION OF CLOUDS ... ESPECIALLY AT MID-HIGH LEVELS. BUT AS FAR AS
LOW-CLOUDS ... A DRY-INVERSION REMAINING IN PLACE BENEATH WHICH
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. MAY HAVE TO AMEND LATER
FORECASTS AS TO HOW LONG A LOW-STRATUS DECK MAY LINGER. WOULD
EXPECT SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...

GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED ACROSS E MA/RI THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE FINALLY
MIXING DRIER AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ERODING THE LEFTOVER
LOW-LVL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS W MA AND CT
ARE EXPECTED AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE MOVES INTO UNDER THE INVERSION. SO LIKELY TO BE A
GRADIENT OF 2M TEMPS...COLDEST E UNDER CLEAR SKIES/WEAK FLOW...AND
WARMER UNDER THE CLOUD COVER TO THE W. MINS MAY DROP INTO THE 20S
E...BUT 30S TO THE W.

WEDNESDAY...

RIDGING AND HIGH PRES REMAIN IN CONTROL...BUT THE THE CORE OF THE
RIDGE TO THE E WILL ALLOW WARM ADVECTION UNDER RETURN FLOW ALONG
WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE. H92 TEMPS +2 TO +4C SHOULD BE
FULLY REALIZED...BUT SUSPECT MORE INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONT/SHORTWAVE. SO WILL LIMIT HIGHS MAINLY TO THE
MID-UPPER 40S ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
* LITTLE TO NO RAIN UNTIL BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

NEGATIVE PNA PATTERN CONTINUES WITH PERSISTENT LONG WAVE RIDGING
ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY TENDS TO SHEAR
OUT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MINIMAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH ONLY VERY BRIEF
INCURSIONS OF COOLER AIR MASSES. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISING TO WAY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 8C AND 10C. THIS COULD LEAD TO RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES IF
NOT TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONSEQUENTIAL RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE SUN NIGHT/MON TIME FRAME WHEN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS MAY END UP BEING A FAST MOVING OCCLUSION BUT TOO FAR OUT FOR
MUCH CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS.

DAY TO DAY...

WED NIGHT/THU...OPERATIONAL GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN 00Z RUNS ALL
SHOW DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA WED NIGHT AND
THU AM. LOOKS LIKE JUST ENOUGH AMPLITUDE/SHARPNESS TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA.
ANTICIPATE ANY QPF TO BE LIKELY NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF
THAT.

FRI...NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF SHEARS WELL NW OF AREA WITH ONLY
IMPACT ON AREA BEING IN FORM OF SOME CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES AT
850 MB GENERALLY 5C TO 7C...AND SHOULD SEE SURFACE MAX TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY MID TO UPPER 50S WHERE
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

SAT/SUN...LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD. CONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTIONS OF
BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO BETWEEN
8C AND 10C TO SET THE STAGE FOR NEAR OR RECORD WARMTH. FOR
NOW...WENT ABOVE A MODEL BLEND AND BROUGHT MAX TEMPERATURES TO UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 SAT AND IN SOME AREAS INTO THE LOWER 60S ON SUN. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE...THINK
WE COULD HAVE A SHOT OF MID TO UPPER 60S.

SUN NIGHT/MON...VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF AND APPARENT SURFACE
OCCLUSION BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ENOUGH FOR CHANCE OF RAIN.
FAIRLY GOOD MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE INCREASES CHANCE FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT THE
DURATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED.

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BKN-OVC MVFR AT OR ABOVE 2 KFT SLOWLY ERODES W-E. SPECIFICITY IN
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE TREND IS ANTICIPATED. CIGS MAY NOT
ERODE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. -RA HAMPERS FAR SE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS
THROUGH 20Z. NE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS INITIALLY WILL
DAMPEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...

FEEL MVFR CIGS AT OR ABOVE 2 KFT WILL LINGER THROUGH A MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY. NE-WINDS BREEZY
NOW WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...

MVFR CIGS MAY ERODE LATE TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON
TRENDS TO THE W. EXPECT A MIX OF SCT-BKN. N/NE-WINDS TURNING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG...BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

FRI THROUGH SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPED SEAS A LITTLE ACROSS SE STELLWAGEN BANK AND WATERS E OF CAPE
COD PER CURRENT TRENDS. NE FETCH WILL KEEP WATERS FAIRLY ROUGH FOR
MOST OF TODAY.

NNE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS ESPECIALLY. THIS CONTINUED FETCH OUT OF THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL YIELD SEAS 5-7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THEN DROP OFF TOWARD EARLY WED THANKS TO DIMINISHING
WINDS/SEAS.

SOME RAIN EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY...BEGINNING AFTER SUNSET THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING S FLOW WHICH MAY BRING 5 FT SEAS
TO OUTER COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY OFF E MA. WEAK FRONT CROSSES
REGION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM OFF
COAST BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RISK OF SOME 5 FOOTERS EAST OF CAPE ANN
DUE TO SW FETCH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.

FRI THROUGH SAT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ251.

SYNOPSIS...DOODY/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DOODY/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...DOODY/THOMPSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

522 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

IFR with local VLIFR in fog and stratus, especially along and east
of KSPI to KBMI thru 16z, then VFR cigs are expected this
afternoon into early this evening. The next weather system and
frontal boundary were well out to our west this morning but the
low level wind flow ahead of the disturbance has helped keep the
fog from becoming too widespread, except in southeast IL. The
main threat for fog and low clouds will be along and east of
I-55 this morning, and then as the weather system approaches our
area later this afternoon, mid and high cloud cover will increase
along with southerly winds. The last to see the stratus and fog
depart will be CMI late this morning. Confidence begins to lower
tonight as the weak frontal boundary pushes across the area with
wind fields expected to decrease just ahead of the weak front.
Question becomes whether that will be enough to bring a period
of fog and low clouds back into the area after 03z. For now, will
bring some MVFR vsbys in fog back after 02z. Surface winds will
remain southerly this period at 10 to 15 kts.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

955 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING LARGE CLOUD SHIELD EDGE N INTO CENTRAL
AND DOWN FROM THE STORM MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLC. MOST OF THIS IS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUDS ACROSS THE N AND W HAVE BROKEN UP SOME
ALLOWING FOR MORE SUN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A NICE CLEARING
SLOT OVER THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH
PRES SITTING OVER THIS AREA ALLOWING FOR THE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD THIS MORNING. CURRENT MAX TEMPS
STILL LOOK GOOD.

SFC RIDGE AXIS WL DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN THRU THE NEAR TERM.
ONLY INTEREST OF NOTE WILL BE CLD CVR WITH HIGH CLDS STREAMING
INTO DOWNEAST AS A RESULT OF SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM
WL TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DUE TO 1028MB HIGH ACRS
THE CWA.

FOR TONIGHT H5 RIDGE WL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO S/WV APPCHG LATE
TONIGHT. WV IS CURRENTLY IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND WL RIDE NORTHEAST.
EXPECT WV WL DAMPEN OUT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLD CVR EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED INTO TUE NIGHT.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 945 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED WINDS UPWARD A BIT OVER THE
OUTER ZONES AS LATEST OBS SHOWED GUSTS CLOSING IN ON 25 KTS.
LATEST LOOK AT THE NAM12 AND RAP SHOW THIS TO SHORT LIVED THIS
MORNING. NO HEADLINE EXPECTED ATTM.

OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

615 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO TEMPS THIS MRNG AS AREAS THAT ARE CLR HV
DROPPED LOWER THAN EXPECTED. EXPECT LOW CLDS TO CONTINUE TO BE AN
ISSUE FOR TDA WITH ERN HALF OF FA CLR WHILE WRN AREAS CONT TO BE
AFFECTED BY STRATUS. LATEST BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WL LIKELY HOLD OVR NRN AND WESTERN ZONES INTO EARLY AFTN BFR
BCMG MIXED OUT. THIS WL LKLY BE JUST IN TIME FOR MID-CLDS TO MV IN
AHD OF NEXT WV AFFECTING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WL CONTINUE WITH
PSUNNY WORDING FOR WRN AREAS TDA AS IT APPEARS THAT STRATUS DECK
IS NOW GRADUALLY ERODING FM THE EAST. THIS OF COURSE WL HV IMPACT
ON TEMPS FOR TDA AND EXPECT NRN AND WRN AREAS TO STRUGGLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE M30S THIS AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

FOR TONIGHT H5 RIDGE WL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO S/WV APPCHG LATE
TONIGHT. WV IS CURRENTLY IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND WL RIDE NORTHEAST.
EXPECT WV WL DAMPEN OUT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLD CVR EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED INTO TUE NIGHT.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH
TUE NIGHT.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

625 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLDS/FOG/DRIZZLE THRU
THIS MRNG. POPS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWVS NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ARE THE CHALLENGE FOR TNGT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY AT SAW WITH UPSLOPE
S WIND DRAWING MSTR UNDER LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN. AT CMX AND
IWD...THE DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THIS FLOW WL LEAD TO VFR OR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR AT CMX/IWD. EVEN AT SAW...THERE WL BE A PERIOD
THIS EVNG WHEN THE INVRN LOWERS SUFFICIENTLY TO BREAK UP THE LO
CLDS. BUT ANY IMPROVEMENT WL BE BRIEF AS AN APRCHG DISTURBANCE
BRINGS A RETURN OF MORE MSTR AND SOME -SHRA THAT WL FURTHER MOISTEN
THE LLVLS. SO EXPECT CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES TO DETERIORATE TO
IFR/LIFR OVERNGT IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1022 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF THOUGH LATE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEXT
MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1020 AM TUESDAY...THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS ENVELOPED THE
FORECAST AREA IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING WITH VISIBILITIES IN MOST
AREAS AT OR ABOVE 1 MILE. A FEW 1/2 MILE OR LESS SPOTS REMAIN
MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IS
SHOWING THINNING OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GRAND STRAND
NORTHWARD TOWARD LUMBERTON AND WHITEVILLE.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLOW EROSION OF CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY AFTERNOON. THE LAST AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO CLEAR BASED ON THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR WILL BE EASTERN BLADEN AND
WESTERN PENDER COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PLAGUING THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM MAY STILL BE AT
LEAST PARTIALLY TRAPPED UNDER A VERY STRONG INVERSION AT 5KFT.
EVEN SO, SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH THIS POSSIBLY SATURATED LAYER WILL
STILL ALLOW THE AFTERNOON TO WARM UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS PAIRED WITH THE
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
WEDNESDAY. A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO MIX OUT THE INVERSION
LEADING TO MORE SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT BUILDING OF RIDGING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS. THIS RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN AMPLITUDE WHILE PROGRESSING
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S BUT THE LONGER TERM BIAS TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY (HIGH 60)
LIKELY MEANS THAT THOSE VALUES ARE A BIT LOW. THE STALWART RIDGE
HOLDS ON SUNDAY EVEN AS A VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR/MVFR IN SOME LOCATIONS. POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW
CIGS...ALONG WITH DENSE FOG WHICH IS PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE INLAND
SITES. WHILE THERE IS A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AS TO TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON...FOR NOW
ANTICIPATE FOG/LOW CIGS TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG RETURN...WHICH WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR
AGAIN. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM TUESDAY.. SEAS ARE RANGING 2 TO 3 FEET FOR MOST
WATERS EXCEPT FOR SOME 4 FOOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF AMZ252
NEAR FRYING PAN. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 10 KNOT AND MAY
SLOWLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TO BELOW
10 KNOTS. THE FOG OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISHBY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF
3 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT IS FAIRLY WEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRUGGLING TO FIND CENTERS WELL OFFSHORE AS WELL AS DOWN
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FLOW WILL BE ONSHORE INITIALLY AND TEND TO
BACK A BIT AS THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC HIGH. WITH
WEAK WIND AND NO REAL SWELL-GENERATING FETCH PREDOMINANT WAVES
WILL BE GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS. FLOW REMAINS VERY WEAK ON THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT VARIABLE THOUGH A SLIGHT OFFSHORE
COMPONENT MAY TEND TO DOMINATE. SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY CAPPED AT 2
FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD FRIDAY AND THEN
MORE SO FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE
OFFSHORE IN A POSITION FAIRLY TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON. W TO SW
FLOW WILL STILL HAVE TROUBLE EXCEEDING 10 KT MUCH THOUGH AND SO
SEAS ONCE AGAIN 2 FT OR SO. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT ON
SATURDAY TURNING THE LOCAL WINDS TO MORE SOUTHERLY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

959 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM TUE...VISUAL SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
GRADUALLY ERODING MOSTLY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. CURRENT
FORECAST REASONING STILL LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO MAKE IN
FORECAST THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE VERY STUBBORN TO
SCOUR OUT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS UNDER THE HIGH PRES AREA
IN CONCERT WITH WEAK DECEMBER SUN. AS A RESULT...HAVE BASED FCST
ON COOLER ECS/MET GUID VS THE TOO WARM GFS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
THROUGH THE MID 50S ESP INLAND AREAS WHERE THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE
LAST TO MIX OUT. IN FACT...THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. IF THIS BECOMES THE CASE TEMPS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED A BIT MORE TODAY. AREAS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD BREAK OUT
IN SUN BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 60.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...SHOULD SEE QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AS HIGH PRES WILL BE SETTLED
OVERHEAD. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO INLAND GRIDS AS SAME AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH LOW T/TD SPREADS.

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUE...IFR OR LOWER CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THE MORNING PER MODEL SNDGS...GUIDANCE...AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
NEAR SFC WINDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. WEAK
DECEMBER SUN WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ERODING THE STRATUS IN THE
MORNING...AND HAVE HELD ON TO IFR CIGS UNTIL 15-17Z...THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC KEEPING LOWER CIGS TILL AFTERNOON.
VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY LESS THAN 5 KT NORTHERLY. FOR
TONIGHT...SIMILAR SETUP WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL SUB VFR OR SUB
MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG. HAVE BASED FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE AND NO LOWER THAN 3SM BEGINNING AROUND 05Z...THOUGH FOG/BR
COULD BE A BIT MORE DENSE AND BEGIN EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUE...N WINDS CONTINUE 10-20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS STILL
TO 25 KT OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT
THOUGH DIAMOND STILL AT 6 FT. WINDS HAVE PEAKED EARLIER THIS
MORNING AND WILL DIMINISH HERE ON OUT. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TODAY
WITH STEADILY DIMINISHING WINDS. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
WATERS BY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VAR LESS THAN 5
KT. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS DEVELOPING.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
154.

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/JME
MARINE...HSA/TL/JME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

700 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM TUE...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW
STRATUS BLANKETING THE EASTERN HALF OF NC THIS MORNING. THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S RAIN WITH
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY MILD AS A RESULT OF THE
CLOUDS WITH 40S AREA WIDE.

FOR TODAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE VERY STUBBORN TO
SCOUR OUT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS UNDER THE HIGH PRES AREA
IN CONCERT WITH WEAK DECEMBER SUN. AS A RESULT...HAVE BASED FCST
ON COOLER ECS/MET GUID VS THE TOO WARM GFS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
THROUGH THE MID 50S ESP INLAND AREAS WHERE THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE
LAST TO MIX OUT. IN FACT...THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. IF THIS BECOMES THE CASE TEMPS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED A BIT MORE TODAY. AREAS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD BREAK OUT
IN SUN BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 60.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...SHOULD SEE QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AS HIGH PRES WILL BE SETTLED
OVERHEAD. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO INLAND GRIDS AS SAME AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH LOW T/TD SPREADS.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM TUE...IFR OR LOWER CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING PER MODEL SNDGS...GUIDANCE...AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
NEAR SFC WINDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. WEAK
DECEMBER SUN WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ERODING THE STRATUS IN THE
MORNING...AND HAVE HELD ON TO IFR CIGS UNTIL 15-17Z...THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC KEEPING LOWER CIGS TILL AFTERNOON.
VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY LESS THAN 5 KT NORTHERLY. FOR
TONIGHT...SIMILAR SETUP WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL SUB VFR OR SUB
MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG. HAVE BASED FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE AND NO LOWER THAN 3SM BEGINNING AROUND 05Z...THOUGH FOG/BR COULD
BE A BIT MORE DENSE AND BEGIN EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM TUE...N WINDS CONTINUE 10-20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS STILL
TO 25 KT OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT
THOUGH DIAMOND STILL AT 6 FT. WINDS HAVE PEAKED EARLIER THIS
MORNING AND WILL DIMINISH HERE ON OUT. HAVE ADJUSTED ENDING OF
SCA TO 18Z (1PM)...AS WWIV AND SWAN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TODAY WITH STEADILY DIMINISHING WINDS. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT/VAR LESS THAN 5 KT. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT S TO SE WINDS DEVELOPING.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
154.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

834 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

WE UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS...MEANING
THAT WE LINGERED LOW-END /SLIGHT CHANCE/ POPS THROUGH THE MORNING
OVER WESTERN ND IN RESPECT TO LIGHT UPSTREAM SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR
SIDNEY MT. RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS HAVE ASSIMILATED THOSE SHOWERS
MORE ACCURATELY AND ALSO IMPLY A LOW-END CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN ND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS CROSSES THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...AIR AND ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND...AND EVEN IN PLACES
WHERE A SMALL RISK REMAINS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING
RAIN WILL QUICKLY CLOSE BY ABOUT 930 AM CST. PARTS OF LAMOURE AND
DICKEY COUNTIES LIKELY HAVE THE GREATEST...ALBEIT STILL SMALL...
RISK OF ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THAT TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

HESITANT TO COMPLETELY REMOVE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN QUITE YET
WITH LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES STILL TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND THE
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...ROAD
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WERE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING. THE EXCEPTIONS WERE LINTON AND WISHEK WHICH WERE AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING RESPECTIVELY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON POPS WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING. DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A LITTLE THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS FREEZING RAIN CHANCES THIS
MORNING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
WHICH IS THE OUTLIER) TODAY AND THE SHORT TERM HIGH-RES MODELS
DEPICT ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA.

RADAR SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 20
DEGREES AND CLOUD CEILINGS NEAR 10K FEET...ANY PRECIPITATION
ALOFT IS LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...LEFT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
ANY MORE ROBUST ECHOES DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION.

BY THE AFTERNOON WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO VALUES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY BUT PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KICK IN LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIPITATION HIGHLIGHT THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A COOLING TREND AS WE HEAD
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH DIFFERENCES
IN SPECIFICS HAMPERING THE FORECAST.

WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON A WARM NOTE WITH UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA.
WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM WITH A FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY...BUT IF WE CAN MAXIMIZE OUR AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WE
COULD POSSIBLY APPROACH SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE FIRST...TRACKS INTO EASTERN
MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING. THE PROBLEM IS THAT DETERMINISTIC
MODELS EACH HAVE A DIFFERING SOLUTION IN HOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THUS THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFS IS DEFINITELY THE STRONGEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS AND AND MORE STACKED WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS TO
THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NAM
IS MOST LIKE THE GFS BUT AS USUAL IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER WITH THE
WIND POTENTIAL...FAILING TO COMPLETELY MIX OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE
ECMWF/GEM OFFER A MORE DIFFUSE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH HIGHEST WINDS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. DUE
TO THE WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS
AT THIS TIME...BUT DID INCREASE THE SURFACE WINDS AND GUSTS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE BLENDED
MOS SOLUTION.

MODELS ALSO ARE VARYING THE QPF PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN
GENERAL...DUE TO THE WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WEDNESDAY EVENING WOULD BE LIQUID. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION. THE GFS/NAM KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ENTERS
THE WEST BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. THE GEM/ECMWF WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...ARE WETTER. AND EVEN THOUGH
FORECAST LOWS ARE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MANY AREAS...WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY THERE IS A MIX
OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS
NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH.

ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. AGAIN...EVEN THOUGH LARGE SCALE FEATURES ARE
SIMILAR...SPECIFICS VARY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WITH COLDER AIR PULLED INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
IS MUCH LESS. ALTHOUGH IT CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WILL
NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

IN A NUTSHELL...THREE QUICK MOVING WAVES TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EACH WITH THEIR OWN FORECAST
ISSUES AND EACH WILL NEED WATCHING IN THE COMING DAYS.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND WE GET A BREAK WITH THE STORM TRACK
DROPPING WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MAINLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 834 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND BEFORE 18 UTC TODAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ/CJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

401 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CST

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WARMER CONDITIONS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA VIA THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THIS WRITING HAVE
WARMED NEAR 50 IN MY FAR SOUTH...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO PERSISTED ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH SOME AREAS
IN MY WEST HAVE SEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. OVERALL...MILD
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE OUR
ACTUAL NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 40S...WITH
SOME AREAS LIKELY EVEN GETTING INTO THE LOW 50S.

THERE IS A MINOR ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION...DUE TO A LACK OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS...OR DRIZZLE...ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS THIS WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DRIZZLE MAY BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE...IF
ANY OCCURS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AGAIN. NO CHANGES TO
POPS HAVE BEEN MADE...OTHER THEN TO SHIFT THEM INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. ANY RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND IT APPEARS THAT SKIES COULD BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.

KJB

.LONG TERM...
257 PM CST

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATE UPPER TROUGH...THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAST AND PROGRESSIVE...WITH LITTLE ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEAR ZONAL TO
START OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY SWLY. THE VARIOUS MODELS INDICATE A
STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE FURTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE
50S...WHICH IS ALMOST 20F HIGHER THAN THE SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE NORTH
TO SPREAD ANY PCPN SOUTH OF THE WISCONSIN BORDER. EVEN AS THE UPPER
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER SOME...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S. BY
FRIDAY...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS AND A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...WITH DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE
GFS/GEM MAINTAINING A PROGRESSIVE UPPER WAVE. HAVE TRENDED THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST CLOSER TOWARD THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT.
PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
CNTRL TX...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT.
RAIN SHOULD BECOME HEAVIER INVOF THE FRONT AND THERE IS A EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME TSRA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
INVOF THE SFC WAVES ALONG THE FRONT. IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...TO THE LOWER 60S
OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WILL NOT DROP OFF UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...BRING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KREIN

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...

* MARGINAL LLWS THIS EVENING.

* MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* MVFR VSBY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING WITH DRIZZLE.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

STRATUS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AND CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS IS STILL ON THE
LOWER SIDE. IN THE NEAR TERM...STRATUS IS BREAKING UP...BUT BY NO
MEANS IN A LINEAR FASHION. THIS WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING TO OBSERVE
VIA SATELLITE WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGH... BUT WE
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SUBTLE EROSION FROM THE WEST IN OBSERVATIONS.
EXPECT THAT FARTHER EAST THE STRATUS MAY REMAIN A BIT PESKY.

DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS WILL DIRECTLY RELATE TO
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. FOR AREAS THAT LIFT THE EVENING PERIOD
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET...AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT COOLING THIS EVENING. FOR AREAS THAT HAVE
CLOUDS THEY WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE EVENING. CURRENT TAFS HAVE A
SOUTH DIRECTION FOR SIMPLICITY...BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHERE A SSE WIND WILL BE
OBSERVED. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE MORE SE COMPONENT WILL
BE AWAY FROM THE MAIN CHICAGO TERMINALS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE
MENTION IN THE TAF AS THE IMPACT OF A 170 WIND IS MINIMAL...BUT IF
INDICATIONS OF MORE OF SE WIND APPEAR...WILL ADD THAT IN. LOW
LEVEL WINDS PICKUP SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
SUCH THAT SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT AT THIS
POINT LOOKS LIKE LITTLE DIRECTION SHEAR AND MARGINAL/BRIEF.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH. A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER SUGGEST NO
MORE THAN SPRINKLES INITIALLY...BUT LATER TONIGHT IF THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATION SUGGESTED BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MATERIALIZES...THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS THAT COULD LOWER VSBYS SOME.
SREF PROBABILITIES OF FOR IFR CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...AND
MVFR VERY HIGH...WHICH TEND TO SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MATERIALIZE...BUT
THE RAP IS STILL SUGGESTING A SCATTERED DECK OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE SIDED ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE GIVEN THE
SIGNAL IN THE NAM/SREF/LAMP/MOS GUIDANCE AND GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT THE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
FORECAST IS OF LOWERED CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
TEMPERED LOW LEVEL SATURATION FROM THE RAP/HRRR.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...

* LOW IN LLWS OCCURRING THIS EVENING.

* MEDIUM-HIGH IN LOW CIGS OCCURRING TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND HOW LOW THEY WILL BE.

* LOW IN HOW LOW VSBY WILL GET WITH DRIZZLE.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WIND.
THURSDAY...VFR. SW WIND.
FRIDAY...VFR. S WIND.
SATURDAY...CHC SHRA. IFR/MVFR. S WIND.
SUNDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA. IFR/MVFR. SW WIND.
MONDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR. W WIND.

BMD

.MARINE...
310 PM CST

A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY. THE FIRST LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN A
DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SETTING UP AN EXPENDED PERIOD OF SLY-SWLY FLOW OVER THE
LAKE...WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 25-30KT LIKELY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GALES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH END
OF THE LAKE AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS WHILE MOVING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND INTO SWRN ONTARIO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INCHES WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT
FOR THE WEEKEND.

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

309 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CST

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

KJB

.LONG TERM...
257 PM CST

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

KREIN

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* MARGINAL LLWS THIS EVENING.
* LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING IN DRIZZLE.

KMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

STRATUS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AND CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS IS STILL ON THE
LOWER SIDE. IN THE NEAR TERM...STRATUS IS BREAKING UP...BUT BY NO
MEANS IN A LINEAR FASHION. THIS WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING TO OBSERVE
VIA SATELLITE WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGUH... BUT WE CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME SUBTLE EROSION FROM THE WEST IN OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT
THAT FARTHER EAST THE STRATUS MAY REMAIN A BIT PESKY.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* LOW ON LLWS OCCURRENCE THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM IN CIG FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
* LOW ON VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND DRIZZLE.

KMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

BMD

.MARINE...
310 PM CST

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

201 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CST

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

KJB

.LONG TERM...
414 AM CST

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MOVING TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY EVENING. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...FOCUSING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BEST
DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT PASSES. MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES
QUICKLY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES OVERNIGHT IN LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AXIS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEST ON
FRIDAY WHERE A LON WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
DURING THE DAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS WITHIN THIS
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR-CORNERS REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES BROAD UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW RESULTS IN
INCREASING WARM/MOIST ASCENT INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND...WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW TAPPING GULF MOISTURE. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS EVOLVING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
DEW POINT TEMPS RISING INTO THE 50S AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.25"
NOTED IN GFS DEPICTIONS. MAY EVEN SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING
THE PERIOD WITH DEEP MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND DECENT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DEVELOPING WARM-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. SOME DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS WITH LONGER RANGE
MODELS...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WOULD TAPER OFF LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA AND PULLS AWAY OVER THE LAKES. COLD AIR INTRUSION BEHIND
THE SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF RAIN/SNOW OR WET SNOW LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THIS WOULD ONLY BE
AS EVENT WINDS DOWN.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S FRI-SAT-SUN...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW 60 DEGREE
READINGS SATURDAY IN OUR SOUTH COUNTIES. TURNING COLDER MONDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* MARGINAL LLWS THIS EVENING.
* LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING IN DRIZZLE.

KMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

STRATUS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AND CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS IS STILL ON THE
LOWER SIDE. IN THE NEAR TERM...STRATUS IS BREAKING UP...BUT BY NO
MEANS IN A LINEAR FASHION. THIS WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING TO OBSERVE
VIA SATELLITE WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGUH... BUT WE CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME SUBTLE EROSION FROM THE WEST IN OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT
THAT FARTHER EAST THE STRATUS MAY REMAIN A BIT PESKY.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* LOW ON LLWS OCCURRENCE THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM IN CIG FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
* LOW ON VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND DRIZZLE.

KMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

BMD

.MARINE...
243 AM CST

A SERIES OF LOWS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST LOW OVER MANITOBA THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT TO JAMES BAY TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE LAKE. MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO AROUND 25 KT
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL SWING TO THE WEST BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY...THEN
BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW.
THIS NEXT LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ARRIVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 30
KT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GALES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH END
OF THE LAKE. YET ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER TRACK AND STRENGTH DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

143 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CST

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

KJB

.LONG TERM...
414 AM CST

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* MVFR STRATUS FOR MDW THIS AFTERNOON.
* MARGINAL LLWS THIS EVENING.
* LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING IN DRIZZLE.

KMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

STRATUS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AND CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS IS STILL ON THE
LOWER SIDE. IN THE NEAR TERM...STRATUS IS BREAKING UP...BUT BY NO
MEANS IN A LINEAR FASHION. THIS WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING TO OBSERVE
VIA SATELLITE WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGUH... BUT WE CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME SUBTLE EROSION FROM THE WEST IN OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT
THAT FARTHER EAST THE STRATUS MAY REMAIN A BIT PESKY.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF MVFR LIFTING FOR MDW TODAY
* LOW ON LLWS OCCURRENCE THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM IN CIG FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
* LOW ON VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND DRIZZLE.

KMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

BMD

.MARINE...
243 AM CST

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1210 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...
357 AM CST

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FEATURES IN NEAR TERM FORECAST ARE SCOURING OUT LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TODAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT WINDS...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS
WAS RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS...WITH IMPROVED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN BETTER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW CLOUDS WERE ALSO
ERODING FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING PER GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IR
IMAGERY...AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PULLING AWAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS
WERE ALREADY ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS TO OUR
WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID-
UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S IN A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF I-80 THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN AMPLIFYING AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT... WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE. MILD...MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY AGAIN SUPPORT SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT WHILE KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S. THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA BY EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF
INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IN WHAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

RATZER

.LONG TERM...
414 AM CST

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* MVFR STRATUS FOR MDW THIS AFTERNOON.
* MARGINAL LLWS THIS EVENING.
* LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING IN DRIZZLE.

KMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

STRATUS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AND CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS IS STILL ON THE
LOWER SIDE. IN THE NEAR TERM...STRATUS IS BREAKING UP...BUT BY NO
MEANS IN A LINEAR FASHION. THIS WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING TO OBSERVE
VIA SATELLITE WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGUH... BUT WE CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME SUBTLE EROSION FROM THE WEST IN OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT
THAT FARTHER EAST THE STRATUS MAY REMAIN A BIT PESKY.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF MVFR LIFTING FOR MDW TODAY
* LOW ON LLWS OCCURRENCE THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM IN CIG FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
* LOW ON VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND DRIZZLE.

KMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

BMD

.MARINE...
243 AM CST

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1144 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

A fast moving shortwave low pressure trough currently crossing the
northern Plains will promote increased southerly winds 10-15 mph
today along with clearing of low clouds and fog. Nevertheless, high
cloud cover and periods of mid-level cloud cover associated with
the feature will spread eastward into central IL today, keeping
cloud cover prevalent today...especially areas from around I-72
northward. Any chance for precipitation with the approaching wave
should hold off until this evening and overnight. Current
forecast is on track with these features for today...and no
significant updates needed this morning.

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

VFR conditions across central IL terminals this afternoon as drier
southerly flow develops ahead of an approaching low pressure
system. Low pressure system will bring a possibility of a few
light rain showers overnight...but also a return of low level
moisture which could produce IFR-MVFR visibilities/ceilings in
fog/stratus. Winds veering to westerly behind the system should
clear out fog/stratus by late morning Wednesday. Winds S 10-15 kts
shifting to W 7-12 kts by 16Z Wednesday.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1026 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

318 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF INDIANA WILL DRIFT AWAY THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...AND BRING SMALL
RAIN CHANCES AS IT PASSES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THEN.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER
40S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUD QUICKLY BURNING OFF WHILE
MID CLOUD WAS STREAMING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARD INDIANA. A
POORLY ORGANIZED COLD FRONT WAS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD AND ILL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. NATIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW SOME
RETURNS ACROSS IOWA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AS THE SHORT WAVE
WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS. GFS AND NAM
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION THOUGH THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. GIVEN
RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...THIS APPEARS PRETTY REASONABLE. MODELS
ARE FAILING TO SHOW STRONG FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT AND BEST
TIMING REALLY PUTS THAT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDING CONCUR
THAT A THIN AREA OF LOWER LEVEL SATURATION SHOULD BE PRESENT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GOING BACK TO FORCING...295K GFS
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWING POOR ALIGNMENT FOR LIFT....HOWEVER THE
SYSTEM ALOFT APPEARS RATHER DYNAMIC. FURTHERMORE THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THUS SUMMING UP...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND SUSPECT FORCING IN PLACE WILL TREND TOWARD A
SLIGHT CHC POP...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WILL ALSO TREND POPS HIGHER ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA GIVEN THE MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE THERE.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

MODEL RETURN TO THE QUICK ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUSLY
DEPARTING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH SOME LOW CHC POPS MAY BE NEEDED DURING
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT AND SHORT
WAVE EXITS...MAINLY THE THEME OF THE DAY WILL BE A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT BY AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...NEGATING
MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTERNOON AND TREND TOWARD THE COOLER 3 HOURLY MAVMOS HIGHS IN
CASE OF SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST. MODEL SUGGEST A QUICK
MOVING SHORT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES RETAINS CONTROL OF THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUD SKIES THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD...TRENDING LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND STICKING CLOSE TO MAVMOS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

MODELS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE WEEKEND AND ON AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND AS A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT...ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS OUR
REGION MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH
SUNDAY AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES
BUT ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. THE GFS NOW
MOVES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...THE GEMNH LATE SUNDAY AND
THE EURO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE.

THE MAIN ISSUES WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTHWEST
HALF SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A PRETTY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH WINDS COULD BE A PROBLEM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

RAISED SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY MINIMUMS THROUGH
SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO OTHER PERIODS.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 08/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 316 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILINGS FOG BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS NEAR THE EAST COAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WEATHER
DEPICTION INDICATES MOSTLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PRECLUDE STRATUS UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT.

IN CONTRAST THE NAM/GFS INDICATES A GREATER AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE RUC MODEL PRECLUDES THIS. WILL COMPROMISE
AND BRING IN AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. WILL GO WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING TO 15 HUNDRED TO 2 THOUSAND FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT WEST TOWARDS END OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 8 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST
AROUND 8 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/TDUD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

250 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

RAISED SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY MINIMUMS THROUGH
SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO OTHER PERIODS.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 081800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILINGS FOG BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 8 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST
AROUND 8 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BRINGING A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY. UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALSO DURING THIS TIME
A WARM FRONT GETS STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF THE FRONT DIFFER IN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS..BUT
LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE TO LIKELY RAIN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. AGAIN TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES ARE PROVIDING SOME
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING OUT ANY THUNDER INCLUSION. AT THIS TIME TRIED
TO CAPTURE AN AVERAGE SOLUTION OF ANY INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MODELS
HAVE THE SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING OUT BUT MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR RAIN
WHILE THE UPPER LOW IS STILL MOVING THROUGH. MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD
DROP BACK INTO THE 40S IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 081800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILINGS FOG BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 8 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST
AROUND 8 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1212 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH. THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARMER BUT MUCH
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL.

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 952 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. IR IMAGES SHOW HIGH CLOUD
EXITING INDIANA...WITH MORE CLOUDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY PUSHING EASTWARD. FOG CONTINUED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE IN REACHING THE
GROUND.

LIMITED HEATING AND THE LOW SUN ANGLE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A
SLOW BURN OFF OF THE FOG ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
LINGERING CLOUDS...TRENDED HIGHS JUST A DEGREE A TWO COOLER THIS
AFTERNOON. TIME HEIGHT`S CONCUR...KEEPING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUS OVERALL...WILL EXPECT A FEW PEEKS
OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS FOG SLOWLY BURNS OFF AND AS HIGH
CLOUD ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON SMALL PRECIP CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS QUICKLY THROUGH THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...POTENTIAL FOR LOWER STRATUS AT TIMES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON DAYTIME TEMPS.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...HIGHLIGHTED BY FAST MOVING WEAK
UPPER WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. FIRST OF THESE FEATURES SET
TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...LIFTING NORTHEAST TO NEAR
JAMES BAY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK
OF THE FORCING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE SURFACE LOW AND REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA.

AXIS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST NOTABLY IN THE 285-290K LEVEL...WILL
COINCIDE WITH STRONGER FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE
LIMITED FORCING ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT TO SERVE AS THE PRIMARY
CATALYSTS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OVER WESTERN
COUNTIES THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL FORCING ALOFT...REALLY
HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL IMMEDIATELY MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL ISSUES FROM LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. IN ADDITION TO THE
UPPER RIDGING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SHALLOW
INVERSION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...THINK ANY STRATUS/FOG WOULD BREAK UP BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING AS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT
EXPECTED FROM STRONGER UPPER WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN TRY TO HINT AT
REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SHALLOW INVERSION...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AS
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD KEEP SOME LEVEL OF MIXING
PRESENT.

TEMPS...LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LIKELY TO HAVE IMPACTS ON HIGH
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. GENERALLY TRENDED BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS
BOTH DAYS AND ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS GUIDANCE APPEARS
TO AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMTH. LEANED TOWARDS COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT THEN TOOK A BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. MILD
DECEMBER WEATHER CONTINUES.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 081800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILINGS FOG BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 8 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST
AROUND 8 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

338 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FRO THE WEEST. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM AS HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE THE
CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES PASSING WELL SE OF THE AREA W/THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED W/IT STARING TO PULL OUT OF THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREA. FURTHER N AND W, SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED SOME CLOUDS AROUND AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSE PASSES BY TO THE N
DESPITE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE. DOWNEAST AND THE COAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT W/HIGH PRES PULLING E. THOSE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL SLOWLY ERODE THIS EVENING, BUT
MORE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SET UP LATER TONIGHT AS A LIGHT ESE
FLOW SETS UP ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO GET TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. THE HRRR DOING WELL W/CURRENT SETUP AND SHOWED THE LLVL
MOISTURE SETTING UP OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL VARY OVERNIGHT DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUDS. THIS
WILL MAKE IT FOR A TOUGHT FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO W/UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/THE COLDEST TEMPS
IN THE LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR RIVER VALLEYS. STAYED W/MID-UPPER
20S DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SOME
OF THE LOW LYING AREAS IN THIS REGION COULD GO COLDER DEPENDING ON
LONGEVITY OF THE CLEARING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE RIVER VALLEYS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ERODE WEDNESDAY MORNING W/THE
WEAK SE FLOW IN PLACE. DIRUNAL EFFECTS SHOULD AID IN ALLOWING FOR
THE CLOUD DECK TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE SOME W/SUNSHINE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW AND RAIN AS WARM
ADVECTION/OVERUNNING TAKE PLACE. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL AND CONFIND TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN. ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WITH
SOME SNOW MIXED IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVLEOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT ACROSS
THE STATE FRI EVENING. A FEW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION,
THOUGH BY THE 00Z SAT MUCH OF THE PRECIP MAY BE OVER FAR ERN & NRN
MAINE, DEPARTING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. AN
UPR RIDGE AND WEAK SFC HIGH THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING
FOR CLEARING SAT INTO AT LEAST SUN AM.

BEYOND THEN, MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WOULD AGREE ON SOME MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
THEY HAVE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SHOWS ONE VERY
POTENT SFC LOW DRIVEN BY A DEEP UPR TROF MOVING INTO ERN CANADA
AND PUSHING A STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE STATE ON MON. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD BRING ABUNDANT RAINFALL LATE SUN NIGHT THRU MON AFTERNOON,
SWITCHING TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGERING INTO TUE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT, SHOWING ONE LOW
DRIVEN BY A JET STREAK CROSSING THE CWA MON, AND A SECOND LOW
DRIVEN BY AN UPR TROF OR CUT-OFF MOVING ACROSS ON TUE. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN RATHER VARIABLE RUN-TO- RUN, WHILE THE GFS HAS
BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT. GIVEN THIS, AND THE FACT THAT THE
CANADIAN APPEARS CLOSER TO THE GFS, ANY EDITS MADE SUN THRU TUE
WERE SKEWED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR ESPECIALLY FOR KCAR TO KFVE EARLY
TONIGHT. A LLVL DECK(MVFR) COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LIGHT ESE FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS DECK
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP E OF THE BGR AND BHB TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES INTO WEDNESDAY. 10-15 KT SUSTAINED WINDS
OUT THERE ATTM. EARLIER REPORTS OF GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S FOR
THE OUTER ZONES. SEAS WERE 3-4FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.
EXPECTING WINDS TO DROP OFF TONIGHT AND REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS ON
WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND DROPPING BACK TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR WINDS. A
SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
THURSDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FEET/7 SECONDS.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

139 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT FROM EARLY THINKING. THE ONLY
MODIFICATIONS WAS TO BRING HRLY TEMPS IN LINE W/CURRENT
CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL READINGS.

FOR TONIGHT H5 RIDGE WL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO S/WV APPCHG LATE
TONIGHT. WV IS CURRENTLY IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND WL RIDE NORTHEAST.
EXPECT WV WL DAMPEN OUT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLD CVR EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED INTO TUE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...HEWITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1235 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLDS/FOG/DRIZZLE THRU
THIS MRNG. POPS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWVS NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
ARE THE CHALLENGE FOR TNGT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KSAW WITH
UPSLOPE S WIND DRAWING MSTR UNDER LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN.
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMES IN AT KSAW LATE WED MORNING WHICH WILL START
AQUICK IMPROVEMENT TREND THERE. AT CMX AND IWD...THE DOWNSLOPE
NATURE OF THIS FLOW WL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT WL BE
BRIEF AS AN APRCHG DISTURBANCE BRINGS A RETURN OF MORE MSTR AND SOME
-SHRA THAT WL FURTHER MOISTEN THE LLVLS. SO EXPECT CONDITIONS AT ALL
3 SITES TO DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNGT. IWD WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BY LATE WED MORNING WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AGAIN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

343 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

GOOD PV ANOMALY WITH DRYING NOTED IN WATER VAPOR HAS HELPED FORCE
A NICE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI TODAY. NORTH OF
THE PV BOOT...THE COMBINATION OF FGEN IN THE H85-H7 LAYER AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K SFC HAVE PROVIDED THE FORCING FOR THE
BAND OF RAIN WE SEE OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS HAD A
PRETTY GOOD HANDEL ON THIS RAIN...SO FOLLOWED IT FOR SHIPPING THIS
BAND OF RAIN OUT OF THE EAST END OF THE MPX CWA BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z.

THIS WILL LIKELY BE IT FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP...THOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC THROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN MN MOVE THROUGH.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE LOOKS TO LACK DEEP MOISTURE LIKE THE LEAD WAVE
HAS...SO CONCENTRATED ANY MENTIONABLE POPS ON THE ERN WAVE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MAIN PLAYER TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS WILL BE THE NARROW
STRIP OF CLEARING THAT IS STRADDLING THE WRN DAKOTAS BORDER. THIS
CLEARING WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MPX AREA
TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLEARING ARRIVES AND HOW LONG IT
PERSISTS...COULD EASILY SEE LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT
WE CURRENTLY HAVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THERE WILL ALSO
BE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP FOG/LOW STRATUS. HOWEVER...WITH SFC
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP IN THE 4-8KT RANGE BEHIND THE
TROUGH...LIKELY MEANS OUR MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WOULD BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOW STRATUS AS OPPOSED TO FOG. THE HRRR
DEVELOPS LOW STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER ERN MN/WRN WI...WHICH
GIVEN THE CURRENT RAIN WOULD MAKE THE MOST SENSE FOR SEEING
STRATUS/FOG IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE IT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT ALSO THE RETURN OF VERY MILD AIR FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE FROM THE SW...WHICH
IS A FAVORABLE WARMING DIRECTION. AS A RESULT...BOOSTED HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES DOWNSTREAM OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE...WHERE WE ARE NOW
ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 40 WITH THE REMNANT SNOWPACK OVER CENTRAL MN AND MID/UPPER
40S ELSEWHERE...THOUGH THIS COULD BE WARMER OUTSIDE OF THE REMNANT
SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE DURING THE LONG
TERM. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS TO WATCH WILL BE TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE EURO WHICH CONTINUES TO TRACK ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BE
DRY...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
STORM TRACK. REDUCED POPS SOME...BUT MAINTAINED AT LEAST SOME
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. HIGHEST POPS ARE CONFINED
TO CENTRAL MN WHERE HIGH CHC OR LOW END LIKELIES CONTINUE. TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TRACK...THE DRY SLOT SHOULD HELP CLEAR THE CLOUDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN MN AND WRN WI. STRONGEST CAA WILL
LAG BEHIND THE SYSTEM...AND IT COULD GET RATHER MILD DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF SUN. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER 50S ACROSS SRN MN AND
INTO WRN WI. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...PARTICULARLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES WITH EITHER STRONGER CAA ALOFT...OR HEATING WITH
SUN.

THE DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
ENERGY WILL BEGIN EJECTING OUT IN PIECES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
LEADING WAVE ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY. THIS MAY BRING A SMALL CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IT
WOULD NEED TO PRODUCE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SATURDAY.
THERE ARE REALLY ONLY TWO LIKELY SCENARIOS THAT WILL PLAY OUT. THE
FIRST ONE IS A PHASED SYSTEM WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT RESULTS
IN A ROBUST SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
BRING A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT NORTHWARD...WITH A MATURE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY SUNDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SUCH A TRACK IS A LIKELY HEAVY SNOW PRODUCER
FOR US. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF ITS ENSEMBLES...THE
CANADIAN...AND THE FORMER RUNS OF THE ECMWF INDICATED THIS AS A
FAVORED OPTION. THE OTHER SCENARIO IS WHAT THE NEW ECMWF HAS
REVERTED TO AND FEATURES THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM WHICH RESULTS IN A LESS DEVELOPED...SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN CYCLONE AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION FOR US. AT THIS
POINT EITHER SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE...BUT PREFER THE FIRST SOLUTION
WHICH HAD STRONG SUPPORT OVERNIGHT. WILL AWAIT FOR FUTURE RUNS TO
DETERMINE ANY MEANINGFUL TREND.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEM IS ANOTHER ORIGINATING FROM
THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT
BEEN THE BEST WITH THIS ONE...LIKELY DUE TO ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH
ITS PREDECESSOR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE MOVING OUT OF SRN MN AND ACROSS WRN
WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE HRRR TO
TIME THIS THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE RAIN...BUT THERE ARE GROWING CONCERNS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THE NAM IS LIKELY
OVERDONE ON ITS DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS/RAP DO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL. THERE ARE TWO ISSUES THOUGH FOR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. ONE...WNW WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UP IN THE
5-10KT RANGE IN THE WAKE OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MN RIGHT
NOW. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A LARGE AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH BEHIND THE -RA...SO WHEN/IF SKIES CLEAR WILL
PLAY INTO THIS AS WELL. REALLY CAN NOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL AT ANY FIELD...THOUGH ERN MN/WRN WI LOOK TO HAVE THE
GREATEST THREAT THANKS TO THIS AFTERNOONS RAIN.

KMSP...RADAR RETURNS TO THE SW STARTED TO PRODUCE PRECIP REPORTS
AT THE SFC AS WELL IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO DID BRING IN
SOME PREVAILING -RA TO START. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SUB-VFR CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE RAIN THOUGH. THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF RIGHT NOW...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO START
WEDNESDAY OFF WITH SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG AND THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WIND W AT 10G20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS ESE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1209 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING. A WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WAS POTENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHTNING
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING. THE MOST VIGOROUS PORTION
OF THE WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT A SECONDARY VORT WILL TRACK FROM
NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN WI WHICH WILL BE OUR MAIN PLAYER.
THERE ARE A FEW ECHOS ON RADAR NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. THINK WE WILL SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR HERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SRN/ERN MN AND WRN WI WITH PERHAPS A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN.

OTHERWISE...A BIT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
CLOUDS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MILD AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ARE POSSIBLE IF THE SUN PERSISTS INTO THE LATE
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES
TRAVERSING THE AREA. THEN FOCUS TURNS TO POTENTIAL STORM
DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND SOME SUNSHINE AT LEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY...SHOULD
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 40S...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST A GOOD
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PORTION OF THE AREA.
THE MODELS DIVERGE SOME ON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE
TROUGH...WITH MOST MODELS TRENDING TO A DEEPER SOLUTION. WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS...BUT MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP FURTHER
IN FUTURE FORECASTS. IT APPEARS MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OF THE LIQUID VARIETY...WITH PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW TURNING TO WET
SNOW BEFORE ENDING SCENARIO OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE TROUGH DEVELOPS DEEPER
HOWEVER. AT THE MOMENT WE HAVE SOME ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE
HALF INCH OVER MAINLY NORTH OF I94 CORRIDOR IN MN AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 8 IN WESTERN WI.

THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW DIGGING THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH ENERGY DEEP INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EJECTING IT
RAPIDLY AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVES ASHORE ON THE WEST
COAST IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TEXAS OKLAHOMA REGION SATURDAY AND LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE
TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. ONE OF THE 00Z CIPS ANALOGS
AT 120 HRS WAS INDICATING THE OCT 31 1991 HALLOWEEN
BLIZZARD...WHICH HAPPENED TO BE AN EL NINO WINTER AS WELL. THIS
IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND DETAILS COULD CHANGE. THE 18Z 12.7 CFS
CONTROL WAS RENDERING A SPLIT FLOW TAKING THE ENERGY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM AT
THE MOMENT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WIND W AT 10G20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS ESE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

600 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...THE LAST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS HAS
DISSIPATED OVER 99 PERCENT OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A VERY DRY PROFILE EXCEPT FOR MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
1000 FEET AND ONCE AGAIN FOG/STRATUS FORMING OVERNIGHT. THE
OPERATIONAL HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING VISIBILITIES CRASHING TO LESS THAN
1/2 MILE FIRST IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
INLAND TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...H5 SHORT WAVE WILL REACH THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN LIFT TOWARD THE NC/VA
BORDER LATE WED NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER
AND PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS PRIMARILY FOR LBT/ILM
ZONES LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE INTO THU AS ANOTHER WEAKER H5 TROUGH AXIS
MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND FEATURES WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THUS CONTINUED DRY FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS WELL WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LACKING.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FRIDAY THRU EARLY SUNDAY. FLAT UPPER FLOW WILL START
THE LONG TERM. BY LATE FRI INTO SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
COMMENCE AND EXTEND ACROSS THE FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS RIDGE WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY SAT INTO SUN AND EXTEND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS UPPER AMPLIFICATION IS A
RESULT OF A DEEP SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LOW. BY LATE SUN THRU MON...
MODELS BECOME QUITE DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH RESPECT TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SOUTHWEST U.S. LOW TO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE EUROPEAN HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH THIS OCCURRENCE...WHEREAS THE
GFS NEARLY KEEPS THIS AN OPEN UPPER S/W TROF. THIS WOULD EXPLAIN
WHY ITS MUCH QUICKER THAN THE EUROPEAN.

AT THE SFC...THE FA WILL REMAIN UNDER CONTROL OF A SFC HIGH
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST FROM FRI THRU EARLY
SUNDAY. INITIALLY...THE HIGH WILL BE WEAK AT 1ST BUT WILL GAIN
STRENGTH AS THE UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT NO CHANCE FOR PCPN FRI THRU EARLY SUN. BY
LATE SUN...ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE APPARENT AS THE CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL GO WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES
ALOFT FOR LATE SUN THRU MON...THE SFC REFLECTION FOR EACH MODEL
WILL BE DIFFERENT. GFS PUSHES A MODEST COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA
MON MORNING WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH SLOWER...LATE MON OR EARLY
TUE. NEVERTHELESS...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVBL TO
WARRANT CHANCE POPS. WILL NOT GO HIGHER UNTIL MODELS SETTLE WITH
THEIR DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW...WITH THE WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NEAR CALM...THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO POOL QUITE NICELY. THINK
THE FOG WILL BE THE MOST DENSE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...POSSIBLY
GOING BELOW 1/2SM. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY A STRATOCU CEILING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...SEAS ARE RANGING 2 TO 3 FEET FOR MOST WATERS
EXCEPT FOR SOME 4 FOOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF AMZ252 NEAR
FRYING PAN. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH 5 TO 10 KT OFFSHORE AND
SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 TO
3 FEET.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WILL PREVAIL AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OFF THE COAST. THE
WEAK RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE 10 KT
WINDS WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE
2-3 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST DOWN TO 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...SFC HIGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. THE SFC HIGH WILL GET STRONGER WITH TIME BUT ITS CENTER
WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE AREA WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THUS...THE SFC PG WILL REMAIN RELAXED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THRU
THIS PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 10 KT THRU THE PERIOD. THE PLACEMENT
OF THE SFC RIDGING FROM THE HIGHS CENTER THE KEY FOR WIND DIRECTIONS
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. AT THIS POINT....WILL STICK WITH A SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION INITIALLY...BECOMING SOUTH THRUOUT BY LATE SAT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BASICALLY RUN AROUND 2 FT...WITH AN OCCASIONAL 3 FOOTER
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. ENE-ESE
GROUND SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WATERS WITH PERIODS AT 8 TO 10
SECONDS.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

332 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
INLAND TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/POSSIBLE MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CIGS
AND FOG BURNING OFF. THOUGH WILL NOTE SOME LINGERING FEW/SCT LOW
CIGS CONTINUE INLAND ATTM. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY...THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THIS WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED INLAND WITH THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS. GIVEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE...HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO GOING FORECAST AND HAVE
VFR PREVAILING. LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ANTICIPATE FOG TO REDEVELOP. WHILE LIFR IS POSSIBLE INLAND
...OVERALL EXPECT MVFR ALONG THE COAST AND IFR INLAND. ON
WEDNESDAY...ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL DISSIPATE BY MORNING...GIVING
WAY TO VFR. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

308 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT...THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM TUESDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE...A CARRY-OVER FROM TODAY...IS THE CONTINUED
EVOLUTION OF THE SLOWLY ERODING/SHRINKING AREA OF STRATUS(LEFT-OVER
FROM THIS MORNING`S DENSE FOG)OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS BOTH SUGGEST
A RAPID RETURN TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00

TO 06Z...WITH EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS/FOG LAYER INLAND INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WEAK SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

WILL BEEF UP CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT COULD BE A RATHER
EXTENSIVE STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT AND WILL INTRODUCE FOG ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF(PERSISTENCE). LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REACH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH WITH LITTLE CONTINUITY IN
SHOWING LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BROAD AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASING DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM US 1 EASTWARD BETWEEN 18Z WED TO 06Z THURSDAY.

HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FAR NW TO MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM TUESDAY...

BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THESE
HEIGHT RISES WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. THE
GRADUAL RISE OF LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT A DEGREE OR
TWO INCREASE IN WARMTH EACH DAY...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO SHOW A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH 40S
INITIALLY...THEN MODERATING INTO THE 50S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL COME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS THE ECMWF IS A GOOD 24 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS IN ORDER TO
BETTER TIME THE PRECIP. REGARDLESS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
RECENTLY...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...
WITH JUST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY (OR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY). BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE TEMPERED
SOME (COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS) ON MONDAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN...WITH LOW TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED. THEN UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RETURN
TO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE IFR
STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IS SLOWLY ERODING/SHRINKING ALONG THE
OUTER EDGES. KFAY AND KRWI COULD SEE A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ~20-21Z.

HRRR AND RAP MODEL DATA SUGGEST WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP/EXPAND AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE EAST. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
BETWEEN 15-18Z.

LOOKING AHEAD: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE COULD SUNDAY NIGHT COULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY
MORNING.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

120 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY...THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...THEN TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM TUESDAY...

WILL ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT NOON TODAY. AREA
WEATHER/TRAFFIC CAMS...METARS AND SATELLITE SHOW FOG LIFTING TO A
STRATUS DECK WITH THE STRATUS DECK ERODING ON THE EDGES. THE
NORTHERN EDGE IS CLOSE TO A LOUISBURG TO TARBORO LINE AS OF 1115
AM...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE FROM LOUISBURG TO FORT BRAGG. HIGH-RES
MODELS SHOW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS TIL ABOUT 1PM IN THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN RWI-FAY...BUT THINK BY THEN THE SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE WESTERN
CWA...BUMPED HIGHS TO AROUND 60.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM MID MORNING...

CLEARED THREE MORE COUNTIES FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. FOG SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING WITH VIS
SATELLITE AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING FOG PREVALENT MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1 OUT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. SHOULD SEE VISIBILITIES START
TO IMPROVE THROUGH MIDDAY WHEN MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE.

BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE WEST AND CLEARED
SKIES FASTER WEST OF A HNZ-POB LINE.

PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...ASSOC/W SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE
LIFTING ENE/NE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THE HIGH/WEAK MSLP GRADIENT...WINDS HAVE GONE CALM IN MOST
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWED A
~1000 FT THICK LAYER OF STRATUS ORIENTED SSW-NNE FROM HWY 1
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AT MIDNIGHT...THE AREA WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE STRATUS HAS GRADUALLY SHALLOWED
(CEILINGS LOWERED) OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...MOST LIKELY IN ASSOC/W
~15 KT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS (950-925 MB)
ADVECTING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL NC. AS THE STRATUS
SHALLOWS...DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY TAKE IT`S PLACE GIVEN CALM
SFC WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BULK OF CENTRAL
NC EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS SCANT (NO RECENT RAIN).

GIVEN A SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO ADVECTION...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS (AFTER
SUNRISE) FOR THE 400-700 FT THICK STRATUS/FOG LAYER TO GRADUALLY
ERODE TOP-DOWN AND FROM THE EDGES. THE 00Z NAM EVEN SUGGESTS STRATUS
MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-
95. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPS ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1 WILL PRIMARILY BE A
FUNCTION OF STRATUS/FOG EROSION. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE FAR WESTERN
PIEDMONT TO LOWER/MID 50S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. UNCERTAINTY IS
GREATEST IN VICINITY OF I-95...WHERE TEMPS COULD BARELY HIT 50F IF
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST WELL INTO PEAK HEATING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING
AREAS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. -VINCENT

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...

A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE...APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
EARLY WED...WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC
WED EVENING/NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
BRIEFLY BACK/STRENGTHEN ATTENDANT THE STRONGEST DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/
WED EVENING. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF (3-6 HR)
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN (TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH OR TWO) TO DEVELOP EAST
OF HWY 1 WED EVENING (00-06Z THU)...IN THE FORM OF A NARROW SSW-NNE
ORIENTED SWATH WHICH DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR/MYRTLE
~21Z...PROGRESSES INTO THE SANDHILLS/SE COASTAL PLAIN ~00Z...
EVENTUALLY EXITING THE NE COASTAL PLAIN ~06Z. WILL INTRODUCE A 20-
30% CHANCE OF RAIN WED EVENING. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
WAVE AND NARROW/BRIEF WINDOW IN WHICH LIGHT PRECIP COULD OCCUR...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HIGHER CHANCES AT THIS
MOMENT. EXPECT HIGHS WED UPPER 50S (NW) TO MID 60S (SE)...LOWS THU
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FAR NW TO MID/UPPER 40S EAST/SE. -VINCENT

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...

A STRONG RIDGE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH SOME LOWER TO MID 70S
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... AND AGAIN IN THE SE ON MONDAY. THE ONLY
THING REALLY HOLDING TEMPERATURES BACK SOMEWHAT WILL BE THAT THE
MAIN RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE WEST OF THE NC MOUNTAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS FAVORS THE WARMEST READINGS IN THE TN VALLEY REGION
SAT... THEN OVER GA ON SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN STORM
TRACK IS FORECAST FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES... WITH
ONLY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO BRING OUR SHOWER CHANCES. COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH READINGS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS WILL BACK OFF INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
TUESDAY. -BADGETT

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ010-011-026>028-
041>043-077-078-084>086-088-089.

$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/WHP
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

119 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM TUE...LOW CLOUDS ALMOST GONE FROM COASTAL PLAIN.
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES.

FOR TODAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE VERY STUBBORN TO
SCOUR OUT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS UNDER THE HIGH PRES AREA
IN CONCERT WITH WEAK DECEMBER SUN. AS A RESULT...HAVE BASED FCST
ON COOLER ECS/MET GUID VS THE TOO WARM GFS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
THROUGH THE MID 50S ESP INLAND AREAS WHERE THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE
LAST TO MIX OUT. IN FACT...THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. IF THIS BECOMES THE CASE TEMPS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED A BIT MORE TODAY. AREAS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD BREAK OUT
IN SUN BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 60.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERNLY WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME CALM. THIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
GROUND REMAINS MOIST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY
OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH A MINIMUM AT THIS TIME IFR/MVFR. GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE INDICATING VISIBILITY CAN REDUCE DOWN TO LIFR FOR THE
INLAND TAF SITES (KPGV/KISO) AND IFR/MVFR FOR THE COASTAL SITES
(KEWN/KOAJ). VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
BY TOMORROW MID MORNING.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM TUE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR OREGON INLET
TO OCRACOKE. SEAS STILL AT 6 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY BUT BELIEVE THIS
WILL DROP TO 5 FEET IN NEXT HOUR OR SO. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TODAY
WITH STEADILY DIMINISHING WINDS. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
WATERS BY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VAR LESS THAN 5
KT. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS DEVELOPING.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...HSA/TL/JME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

100 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015

FOR TODAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE VERY STUBBORN TO
SCOUR OUT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS UNDER THE HIGH PRES AREA
IN CONCERT WITH WEAK DECEMBER SUN. AS A RESULT...HAVE BASED FCST
ON COOLER ECS/MET GUID VS THE TOO WARM GFS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
THROUGH THE MID 50S ESP INLAND AREAS WHERE THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE
LAST TO MIX OUT. IN FACT...THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. IF THIS BECOMES THE CASE TEMPS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED A BIT MORE TODAY. AREAS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD BREAK OUT
IN SUN BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 60.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
154.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/HSA/TL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1148 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM DICKINSON TO ELGIN AND INTO
WESTERN SIOUX COUNTY AS OF 1745 UTC...AND RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS
DO SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES CROSSING THE AREA. WE THUS
LINGERED A LOW-END CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS FREEZING RAIN CHANCES THIS
MORNING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIPITATION HIGHLIGHT THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A COOLING TREND AS WE HEAD
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH DIFFERENCES
IN SPECIFICS HAMPERING THE FORECAST.

IN A NUTSHELL...THREE QUICK MOVING WAVES TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EACH WITH THEIR OWN FORECAST
ISSUES AND EACH WILL NEED WATCHING IN THE COMING DAYS.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND WE GET A BREAK WITH THE STORM TRACK
DROPPING WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MAINLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS FROM KDIK TOWARD KMBG WILL DIMINISH BY ABOUT 21 UTC
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...CJS