Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/03/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
940 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD AND
THIS IS CREATING A DIFFICULT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTH AND EASTWARD.
IT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS...BUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT...THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
FALLING APART. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO HAVE AN EASIER
TIME MOVING TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES
AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SIMULATED RADAR REFLECTIVITY FIELDS FROM THE HRRR AND THE
4-KM NAM INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CONNECTICUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGING
ALOFT JUST TO THE EAST. WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RETREATING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW...SOME GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE STEADIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE
LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE SATURATED AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTH. LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION WITH MODELS INDICATING A NEW WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE COAST. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE...2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WILL INTERACT WITH THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR RAIN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF
THE RAIN COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
INLAND TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER CLOSED LOW/TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED WHEN COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT`S RUNS. SFC LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR NW ZONES AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SFC LOW
PASSES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...STRENGTH RIGHT AROUND 1000 MB
GIVE OR TAKE.
THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH...AND WINDS VEER TO THE WEST/NW LATE
WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND WILL PICK UP IN SPEED AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TRAVERSE TO THE EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN AS LOW LEVEL NW/DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. PRESENCE OF
UPPER TROUGH THOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS...MORE SO AS YOU HEAD
NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
DO NOT FORESEE ANY PRECIP WITH IT. RIDGE BUILDS IN IT`S
WAKE...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER VERY WEAK TROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...AND
20S/30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS TODAY AND TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG
AND LIGHT RAIN. PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND E OF A
KJFK-KLGA-KHPN LINE 18-02Z. ENE WINDS MAINLY BLW 15KT. BEST CHC
FOR GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
IFR CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO WED WITH SOME TERMINALS DROPPING TO
LIFR OR POTENTIALLY BELOW TONIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY ONLY BE OCNL TODAY. VARIATION IN
CIGS/VIS LIKELY TODAY.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE TODAY. VARIATION
IN CIGS/VIS LIKELY TODAY.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE TODAY. VARIATION
IN CIGS/VIS LIKELY TODAY.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS MODERATE...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 3-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIATION IN CIGS/VIS LIKELY TODAY.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIATION IN CIGS/VIS LIKELY TODAY.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE TODAY. VARIATION
IN CIGS/VIS LIKELY TODAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 12Z THU. WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE W NEAR 10 KT. GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.THURSDAY...VFR. WNW FLOW 10-20KT. GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
.FRIDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.
.SATURDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOW OCCURRING ON THE OCEAN WATERS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
THE SOUND AND PECONIC/GARDINERS BAYS WITH SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE THERE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT THE HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE
BAYS FROM THE SCA...BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE ZONES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BE STRONGEST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF THE LOW ENDS UP A LITTLE
STRONGER...THE OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE A GUST TO NEAR GALE FORCE.
FLOW WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON
THE OCEAN.
SEAS LIKELY STAY ABOVE SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SW FLOW INCREASES. THE FRONT PASSES
PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES
SO...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...THEN NW AND PICK UP
IN SPEED. IN FACT...WINDS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE THURSDAY FROM
THE NW...MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
PER WAVE WATCH...SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE WINDS INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...THEN SUBSIDE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...BC/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JMC/JM
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
706 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD AND THIS IS CREATING A
DIFFICULT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTH AND EASTWARD. IT IS MAKING SLOW
PROGRESS...BUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
RIDGING ALOFT...THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING APART. THE
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO HAVE AN EASIER TIME MOVING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES AS OF 12Z ARE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHERN CT...IN NEW HAVEN......AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ONCE THE PRECIP SHIELD
REACHES THESE ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN
AN SPS UNTIL 14Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW...BUT
SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY STAY NEAR FREEZING AS THE PRECIP STARTS
TO MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
THEREAFTER AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF PLAIN
RAIN. ELSEWHERE...PLAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES
AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SIMULATED RADAR REFLECTIVITY FIELDS FROM THE HRRR AND THE
4-KM NAM INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CONNECTICUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGING
ALOFT JUST TO THE EAST. HIGHEST POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN CATEGORICAL
EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES NEAREST TO LONG ISLAND
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NEARBY. WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW...SOME
GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE STEADIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE
LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE SATURATED AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTH. LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION WITH MODELS INDICATING A NEW WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE COAST. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE...2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WILL INTERACT WITH THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR RAIN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF
THE RAIN COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
INLAND TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER CLOSED LOW/TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED WHEN COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT`S RUNS. SFC LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR NW ZONES AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SFC LOW
PASSES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...STRENGTH RIGHT AROUND 1000 MB
GIVE OR TAKE.
THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH...AND WINDS VEER TO THE WEST/NW LATE
WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND WILL PICK UP IN SPEED AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TRAVERSE TO THE EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN AS LOW LEVEL NW/DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. PRESENCE OF
UPPER TROUGH THOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS...MORE SO AS YOU HEAD
NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
DO NOT FORESEE ANY PRECIP WITH IT. RIDGE BUILDS IN IT`S
WAKE...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER VERY WEAK TROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...AND
20S/30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS TODAY AND TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG
AND LIGHT RAIN TOWARDS WESTERN TERMINALS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD
EAST THIS MORNING. ENE-E FLOW 5-10 KT BECOMES MORE NE AND
INCREASES TO 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY MAINLY NEAR THE COASTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. INLAND...WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND WINDS THROUGHOUT
LOWER TONIGHT. IFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME
TERMINALS DROPPING TO LIFR OR POTENTIALLY BELOW TONIGHT.
AN OVERALL MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE RAIN MAY BECOME MORE
INTERMITTENT AND THERE COULD BE A LULL WHERE THERE ARE JUST
SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE LOW AT IFR OR
BELOW IN TERMS OF THE CLOUDS OR FOG. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS
LOWERING CATEGORY COULD VARY ON AVERAGE 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST
AND GUST TIMING COULD ALSO BE OFF BY AN AVERAGE OF 1-3 HOURS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BE DELAYED BY 1-2 HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BE DELAYED BY 1-2 HOURS.
TIMING OF IFR COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BE DELAYED BY 1-2 HOURS.
LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS MODERATE...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 3-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO NEAR 15 KT POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF 1-3 HOURS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO NEAR 15 KT POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF 1-3 HOURS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUST TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
IFR TIMING COULD BE OFF 2-4 HOURS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 12Z THU. WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE W NEAR 10 KT. GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.THURSDAY...VFR. WNW FLOW 10-20KT. GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
.FRIDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.
.SATURDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOW OCCURRING ON THE OCEAN WATERS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
THE SOUND AND PECONIC/GARDINERS BAYS WITH SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE THERE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT THE HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE
BAYS FROM THE SCA...BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE ZONES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BE STRONGEST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF THE LOW ENDS UP A LITTLE
STRONGER...THE OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE A GUST TO NEAR GALE FORCE.
FLOW WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON
THE OCEAN.
SEAS LIKELY STAY ABOVE SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SW FLOW INCREASES. THE FRONT PASSES
PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES
SO...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...THEN NW AND PICK UP
IN SPEED. IN FACT...WINDS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE THURSDAY FROM
THE NW...MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
PER WAVE WATCH...SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE WINDS INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...THEN SUBSIDE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
630 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
IN SOME AREAS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER...ALONG
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...A LARGE CUTOFF LOW IS SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A LARGE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE COMING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS TEXAS...THE DEEP AND MID SOUTH...AND UP THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A BATCH OF DEEP AND COLD CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE CATSKILLS FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST.
AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING FOR CHILLY TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE STILL
THIN. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID
30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NE
PA AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS THANKS TO THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE SFC WARM FRONT. THIS PRECIP IS STARTING TO REACH INTO THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE...SOME OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE
SURFACE...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT KPOU
AND KMGJ THIS MORNING. WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT OF 3-5 DEGREES
C...PRECIP IS FALLING AS EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON
SFC TEMPS. THE 10Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST PRECIP WILL REACH INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION BY ABOUT 8-9 AM...AND WILL TAKE UNTIL 11 AM OR SO
TO REACH THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE AREA.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE CALM...OR EVEN LIGHT FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. THIS IS KEEPING THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE
SFC...EVEN WITH THE INCREASING WAA. TEMPS HAVE CREEPED UPWARD IN
SOME SPOTS...BUT STILL ARE LARGELY BELOW FREEZING. IN
ADDITION...THE LARGE T/TD SPREAD WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WET BULBING
ONCE PRECIP BEGINS AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...UNTIL THE SFC
HIGH MOVES AWAY FURTHER AND SFC WINDS SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION...ALLOWING WARMER ABOVE FREEZING AIR TO MOVE INTO REGION
AT LOW LEVELS. PRECIP IS FAIRLY SPOTTY...LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND
BRIEF IN DURATION. THE MAIN FACTOR PREVENTING THIS FROM BEING A
LARGER IMPACT IS NOT THE TEMPS BUT THE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. TOTAL QPF THIS MORNING IS ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY ICE ACCRETION LIMITED TO JUST A
TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. STILL...ANY ICE ACCRETION CAN
MAKE UNTREATED SURFACES SLIPPERY...SO WILL CONTINUE THE FZRA
ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...THE NY ROUTE 7
CORRIDOR...AND THE VT/MA BORDER THROUGH NOON. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY OF ULSTER/DUTCHESS COUNTIES...WHERE SFC
TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...AND THE MAJORITY OF
THE PRECIP WILL JUST BE A PLAIN RAIN. SOME OF THIS ADVISORY AREA
WILL BE ABLE TO GET CANCELED BEFORE NOON...ESP SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND AREAS WHICH FUNNEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WELL...SUCH AS THE
CAPITAL REGION...AS TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY RISE AFTER SUNRISE WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FINALLY TAKING OVER.
FURTHER NORTH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA/SRN VT...STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNING
TOWARDS NOON...BUT WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLD DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP
THAT MAKES IT THAT FAR NORTH BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR THE ADKS AND SRN
VT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SPS OR ADVISORY
IF PRECIP LOOKS MORE WIDESPREAD.
AFTER THIS INITIAL BURST OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN FOR THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL...BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY LIGHT RAINFALL MOVES IN FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WARM
ADVECTION. TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO BE COOL WITH THE CLOUDY SKIES AND
LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...ALONG
WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE JERSEY
SHORE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAINFALL TONIGHT. TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...SO NO THREAT
FOR ANY FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT IN INTENSITY...BUT SHOULD BE FAIRLY STEADY FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE STORM/S COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG IT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
THE STORM/S COLD FRONT LOOKS TO FINALLY CROSS THROUGH THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...AND COOLER AIR STARTING TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA ALOFT. THE LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SOME ADDITIONAL
PRECIP WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SFC LOW...ALONG WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SHOWERS OF RAIN WILL BE ONGOING...AND THESE LOOK TO
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND OTHER NORTHERN
AREAS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AS
THE UPPER LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...OTHERWISE PRECIP WILL JUST BE RAIN SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH. LOWS ON WED NIGHT
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
PRECIP WILL FINALLY TAPER OFF FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY...WITH JUST A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER OR
FLURRY OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SKIES WILL FINALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LOW 30S FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CONNECTICUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL ANTICIPATING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A SPLIT FLOW CONTINUING WHICH
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER THE FLOW IS RATHER
FAST WITH MANY PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
CHANCES FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS CANADA IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FRIDAY WITH READINGS
MODERATING OVER THE WEEKEND AND RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AS THE PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE
ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION AT KPSF SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LIKELY NOT WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING
UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE VERY LIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE AT KPSF IS EXPECTED TO WARM TO
ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING. THE TEMPERATURE AT KALB IS UP TO
31 DEGREES AND GRADUALLY RISING SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF FZRA
FROM TAF. AT KGFL...THE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. AT KPOU TEMPERATURES
ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD/MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM`S WARM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
FOLLOWED BY THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AT
KALB...KGFL AND KPSF. IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS BECOMING CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA/SHSN.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. THE RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR RIVERS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NOVEMBER 2015 GOES DOWN IN THE RECORD BOOKS AS ONE OF THE WARMEST FOR
ALBANY AND POUGHKEEPSIE...AND ONE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST FOR GLENS FALLS.
AT ALBANY: TIES FOR 4TH WARMEST (45.5 DEGREES)
AT POUGHKEEPSIE: 3RD WARMEST 46.3 DEGREES)
AT GLENS FALLS: 2ND WARMEST (42.8 DEGREES) AND 2ND DRIEST (1.05 INCHES)
AUTUMN 2015 WILL ALSO GO DOWN IN THE RECORDS BOOK AS ONE OF THE WARMEST
ON RECORDS FOR ALBANY AND GLENS FALLS...AND THE WARMEST FOR POUGHKEEPSIE.
AT ALBANY: 4TH WARMEST (54.6 DEGREES)
AT GLENS FALLS: 3RD WARMEST (51.8 DEGREES)
AT POUGHKEEPSIE: WARMEST (55.7 DEGREES) BREAKING THE OLD RECORD SET BACK
IN 2005 BY 0.2 DEGREES
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038>040-
047>054-058>061-063-066-082.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
534 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD AND THIS IS CREATING
A DIFFICULT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTH AND EASTWARD. IT IS MAKING
SLOW PROGRESS...BUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
RIDGING ALOFT...THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING APART. THE
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO HAVE AN EASIER TIME MOVING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES AS OF 10Z ARE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHERN CT...IN NEW HAVEN......AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ONCE THE PRECIP SHIELD
REACHES THESE ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN
AN SPS UNTIL 14Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW...BUT
SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY STAY NEAR FREEZING AS THE PRECIP STARTS
TO MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
THEREAFTER AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF PLAIN
RAIN. ELSEWHERE...PLAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES
AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SIMULATED RADAR REFLECTIVITY FIELDS FROM THE HRRR AND THE
4-KM NAM INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CONNECTICUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGING
ALOFT JUST TO THE EAST. HIGHEST POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN CATEGORICAL
EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES NEAREST TO LONG ISLAND
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NEARBY. WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW...SOME
GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE STEADIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE
LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE SATURATED AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTH. LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION WITH MODELS INDICATING A NEW WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE COAST. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE...2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WILL INTERACT WITH THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR RAIN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF
THE RAIN COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
INLAND TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER CLOSED LOW/TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED WHEN COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT`S RUNS. SFC LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR NW ZONES AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SFC LOW
PASSES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...STRENGTH RIGHT AROUND 1000 MB
GIVE OR TAKE.
THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH...AND WINDS VEER TO THE WEST/NW LATE
WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND WILL PICK UP IN SPEED AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TRAVERSE TO THE EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN AS LOW LEVEL NW/DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. PRESENCE OF
UPPER TROUGH THOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS...MORE SO AS YOU HEAD
NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
DO NOT FORESEE ANY PRECIP WITH IT. RIDGE BUILDS IN IT`S
WAKE...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER VERY WEAK TROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...AND
20S/30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TAKING SHAPE OUT TOWARDS WESTERN
TERMINALS AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST THIS MORNING WITH FOG AND
RAIN DEVELOPMENT. ENE-E FLOW 5-10 KT BECOMES MORE NE AND INCREASES
TO 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY MAINLY NEAR THE COASTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KT. INLAND...WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND WINDS OVERALL LOWER TONIGHT. IFR
CONTINUES TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY COULD LOWER BELOW IFR AT TIMES.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS MODERATE...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 3-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HOURS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HOURS.
A QUICK VFR TO IFR TRANSITION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HOURS.
A QUICK VFR TO IFR TRANSITION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 12Z THU. WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE W.
.THURSDAY...VFR. WNW FLOW 10-20KT.
.FRIDAY...VFR. W FLOW 10-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOW OCCURRING ON THE OCEAN WATERS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
THE SOUND AND PECONIC/GARDINERS BAYS WITH SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE THERE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT THE HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE
BAYS FROM THE SCA...BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE ZONES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BE STRONGEST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF THE LOW ENDS UP A LITTLE
STRONGER...THE OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE A GUST TO NEAR GALE FORCE.
FLOW WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON
THE OCEAN.
SEAS LIKELY STAY ABOVE SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SW FLOW INCREASES. THE FRONT PASSES
PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES
SO...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...THEN NW AND PICK UP
IN SPEED. IN FACT...WINDS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE THURSDAY FROM
THE NW...MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
PER WAVE WATCH...SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE WINDS INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...THEN SUBSIDE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
100 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN IN SOME AREAS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORING TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER...ALONG
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM...REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL PA HEADING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS OUR AREA. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THIS PRECIP WILL REACH OUR
CATSKILLS AREAS BY 4-5 AM...MID HUDSON VALLEY BY 6-7 AM...AND THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION BY 8-9 AM. WITH TEMPS STILL IN
THE 20S...HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY...AND NOT EXPECTED TO RISE TOO
MUCH OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THE PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE TEMPS CAN RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY OF
DUTCHESS/ULSTER COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S
ALREADY...AND MAY STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THIS EVENT.
ANY FZRA IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY...LEAVING ONLY A
TRACE OF ICE ACCRETION. AFTER UP TO AN HOUR OR TWO OF -FZRA...TEMPS
SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE MID 30S. STILL...SURFACES MAY BECOME
TEMPORARILY SLICK DUE TO THE LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE...AND THE FZRA
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY
/EXCEPT FOR EASTERN ULSTER AND WESTERN DUTCHESS COUNTIES/.
FURTHER NORTH TEMPS ARE EVEN COLDER RIGHT NOW...BUT PCPN NOT
EXPECTED THERE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING...SO IT MAY WARM UP
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE LATER START...A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CAN BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING FOR AREAS
TO THE NORTH IF NEEDED.
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. TEMPS
WILL ONLY WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY LATE IN THE
DAY...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT TO SOUTH WILL NEVER REACH OUR AREA. ENERGY FROM A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA WILL ALLOW A SECONDARY
NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LATE
TUESDAY.
THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COAST...OR
POSSIBLY A LITTLE INLAND. IN FACT... TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHANGE
VERY LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO TUESDAY...AVERAGING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FIRST LOW
PRESSURE...THEY DIFFER A JUST SLIGHT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN FRONT WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE...STALLING
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO FORM ALONG IT WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS THIRD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...
MOVING IT OFF TO OUR EAST (ALONG WITH THE FRONT) WEDNESDAY EVENING....WHILE
THE ECMWF MOVES IT BIT SLOWER...NOT CLEARING OUR REACHING UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING. EITHER WAY...AN THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM OVERNIGHT
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH THE STEADIER RAIN WILL
DEPART. AT THIS TIME...THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH SO THAT THESE SHOWERS
COULD TURN TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A SMALL
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY (PERHAPS AROUND 50
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY)...COOLING TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...STARTING WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL BE GRADUALLY OPENING UP AND WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT
STILL HAVE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. ANY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...WHERE GENERALLY A FEW
TENTHS TO A LITTLE OVER A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AND ONE LAST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WINDWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
AND START OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS THE
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE CONCERN IS FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION AT KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LIKELY NOT WARM TO ABOVE
FREEZING UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KALB AND BY NOON AT KGFL AND KPSF.
THE RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
06Z/WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM`S WARM APPROACHES WITH IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT BY AFTERNOON AT KPOU.
OUTLOOK...
WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEF RA.
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA/SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/SHSN.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. THE RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR RIVERS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
TODAY FOR NYZ038>040-047>054-059>061-066-082.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON
EST TODAY FOR NYZ058-063.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
634 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN DURING FRIDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE DURING MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT, THEN THE LOW POTENTIALLY
STRENGTHENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT TO SEA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE NEAR TERM, EXCEPT EXTREME NW,
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND HRRR GUID. CDFNT SHOWING UP WELL ON
RADAR ACRS ERN PA ATTM. NOT MUCH OF AN AMS CHANGE THO WIND WILL
SHIFT.
TONIGHT AFTER 10 PM...ANY LEFTOVER FOG/DRIZZLE/SCT SHOWERS IN
NJ/DE SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WHILE CLEARING DEVELOPS WITH A
NORTHWEST WIND IN PA/MD E SHORE. CLEARING SPREADS EAST TO THE
COASTS BY 5 AM. CONDITIONS CHANGE ABRUPTLY FROM STRATUS TO A SOLID
DECK NEAR 5000 OR 6000 FT AND THEN UP TO THINNING CIRRUS BY DAWN.
EXCEPTION...A NEW AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVES INTO E PA TOWARD
DAWN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF THE 500MB TROUGH...170M 12 HR
500MB HFC CROSSING E PA AT 12Z THU. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WET BULBS
LOOK TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE 5 AM THURSDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST SUBSEQUENT TO THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN MAY GUST 20 MPH LATER AT NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
500MB INSTABILITY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS DRY OUT TO SPRINKLES OR NADA BY
NOON AS STRONG HEIGHT RISES FOLLOW THE TROUGH. WE CALLED IT SCT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING E CENTRAL PA AND POSSIBLY NW
NJ (JUST A RAIN SHOWER DOWN INTO SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ IN THE
MORNING) OTHERWISE...MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN, BREEZY AND COOLER
THURSDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 30 MPH DURING MIDDAY.
DAYTIME MAX TEMPS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BUT IT WILL
FEEL CHILLY BECAUSE OF THE WIND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THAT GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN FOLLOW,
WHICH ALLOWS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN DURING FRIDAY
AND THEN LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD THEN
RETREAT OFFSHORE DURING MONDAY. A POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT NEXT WEEK
MAY ALLOW FOR A COASTAL STORM AROUND THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TROUGH EVOLUTION AS SOME
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A CUT OFF WHILE OTHERS WEAKEN IT TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WE LEANED TOWARD THE WPC GUIDANCE WHICH
SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
APPROACH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WE USED EITHER
THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE OR THE SUPERBLEND. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA MAINLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WHERE
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES MAKE IT INTO THE
POCONOS. THE AIRMASS HOWEVER SHOULD BE DRYING THOUGH AND THE CAA IS
FORECAST TO WANE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES CLOSER, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD RELAX SOME
DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS TO START, BUT
THEN DIMINISH SOME BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT REACHING OUR AREA DURING FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE LOOKS
DRY ACROSS OUR AREA ATTM.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A STRONGER TROUGH EXITS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY, RIDGING FROM THE WEST IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA. THIS RESULTS IN STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THEN
SHIFTING OFFSHORE MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED CLOUDS DUE TO
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS, HOWEVER SOME
INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. THIS IS THE START OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE AMPLITUDE OF
AN INCOMING TROUGH LATE MONDAY IS IN QUESTION. DESPITE THIS, THERE
SHOULD BE A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUT OFF IS IN QUESTION. THERE ARE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT ARE WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE, ALTHOUGH MANY DO
HINT AT A COASTAL STORM, HOWEVER WE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO WPC SHOWING A
WEAKER SYSTEM OVERALL ATTM. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO START TUESDAY WHICH THEN SLOWLY MOVES OUT
TO SEA. THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW.
DEPENDING ON THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH, A SURFACE LOW REFLECTION
MAY LINGER OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. INITIALLY THOUGH, HIGH PRESSURE NEAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN A NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WE MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LIFR/IFR CONDS THRU THE EVE. LATEST GUID WANTS TO HOLD ON THE LOW
CONDS A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN PREV FCST. HOWEVER, WITH CDFNT IN
ERN PA ATTM, WILL SEE IF THAT IS INDEED THE CASE, SO AFTER ABOUT
2-3Z, UNTIL ABOUT 06Z, FCST IS LOW CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, BEYOND
THAT, MUCH IMPROVEMENT AND VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
EXCEPT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS VCNTY KABE/KRDG DURING THE MORNING.
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE A GLANCING PASS AT KPHL AND KTTN AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY 15Z-
21Z.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ESPECIALLY LATE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, THEN BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY
DURING SUNDAY.
MONDAY...VFR OVERALL WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS. WINDS BECOMING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
MWW DENSE FOG ADVY POSTED FOR THE N AND CENTRAL NJ WATERS AND
EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING.
SCA ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS LATER TONIGHT.
THE GALE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY WHERE AT LEAST A SCATTERING
OF 35 KT GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. ATTM, THE CONCENTRATION OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS DURING THE MORNING SHOULD BE FROM BRANDYWINE AT THE
ENTRANCE TO DE BAY, ACROSS CAPE MAY TO JUST NORTH OF 44009.
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE GALE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD SHIFT
NORTH TO THE NORTHERN NJ WATERS AND DIMINISH IN THE DE WATERS.
THERE IS A LACK OF MUCH CAA NEAR THE SURFACE AND SO WHILE LAPSE
RATES LOOK UNSTABLE AND TRANSFERABLE DOWN FROM ABOUT 900MB
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE FOR VERIFYING A GALE WITH MORE THAN 2 HOURS
OF GUSTS 35 KT AT THE VERIFYING DATA POINTS WAS LESS THAN 80
PERCENT ON THIS DAY SHIFT AND THEREFORE NOT ISSUING BUT THE GRIDS
DO HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF 35 KT GUSTS. THE 12Z/2 GFS WAS STRONGER
THAN THE 12Z/2 NAM AND I THINK CORRECT.
WE LOOKED AT SREF PROBS FOR 25 KT SUSTAINED AS WELL AS GEFS PROBS
FOR 25 AND 30 KT SUSTAINED. THE LACK OF LOW LVL CAA WAS MY PRIMARY
CONCERN ABOUT NOT FORECASTING A MARGINAL GALE.
THE EVENING AND MID SHIFT WILL REEVALUATE AND EVENTUALLY EXTEND
THE SCA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING OR CONVERT THE SCA TO GLW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CAA IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT STRONG AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF MIXING. WE ARE ANTICIPATING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOW-END GALE FORCE GUSTS,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WARNING. AS A RESULT WE
WILL KEEP THE GALE WATCH THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE UPPER
DELAWARE BAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS WELL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND GUSTS DROPPING BELOW 25 KNOTS EARLY
FRIDAY, OTHERWISE LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SEAS
WILL ALSO SUBSIDE.
MONDAY...A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS DEVELOPING MOSTLY AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS A COASTAL LOW MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>452.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SAT-WED...ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR WX
FEATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE: BTWN 12Z MON
AND 12Z TUES...ECMWF DVLPS A FULL BLOWN ATLC STORM SYSTEM OUT OF A
BROAD COASTAL TROF OFF THE SE COAST BTWN 12Z MON AND 12Z TUE...GFS
MISSES THIS ALTOGETHER. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION EVOLVES IMPACT
FOR CENTRAL FL WOULD BE LIMITED OTHER THAN TO HASTEN THE ANTICIPATED
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE IN THE FCST PD.
DEEP/BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
STRONG POST FRONTAL RIDGE PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT SOMEWHERE BTWN I-4 AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...LEAVING ITS REMNANT MOISTURE BAND TO MEANDER ACRS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA. H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 70-90PCT WILL
REQUIRE POPS TO REMAIN IN THE FCST THRU THE PD. MILD ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG. MAXES IN THE M/U70S ALONG THE COAST...
U70S/L80S INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS M60S/L70S ALONG THE COAST...L/M60S
INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION... ISOLD-SCAT SHRA MAINLY EAST OF KSFB-KISM LINE INTO LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOST OF THE CONVECTION PUSHES
EAST OVER THE ATLC AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS TO THE
MVFR CAT BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOG WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.MARINE... FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 14-18 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO THU AFTN. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE BY THU
AFTN NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
THU NIGHT...THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. NNE/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15/15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN ATLC. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-6 FT GULF
STREAM/OFFSHORE LIKELY PROMPTING CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
FRI-MON...A STRONGER WIND SURGE WILL MOVE DOWN THE PENINSULA DURING
THE DAY ON FRI WITH GUSTY NNE/NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS OVER
THE OPEN ATLC. SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 4 TO 6
FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE...POTENTIALLY TO 8 FT FRI NIGHT
OFFSHORE. WINDS/SEAS REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY FOR ALL MARINE LEGS INTO
MON AS SEAS BUILD 6-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND 8-12 FT GULF
STREAM/OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE 25+ KNOTS SUSTAINED (FRI NIGHT-EARLY
SUN) OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
FRI AFTERNOON WELL OFFSHORE CONTINUING THRU SUN AWAY FROM THE COAST.
AT SOME POINT A GALE WATCH/WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE ENTERTAINED
(SAT/SAT NIGHT). OFFSHORE MOVING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTH OF THE CAPE. ISOLATED
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE SOUTH OF MELBOURNE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 64 69 61 73 / 30 10 30 40
MCO 65 73 62 74 / 30 20 40 50
MLB 68 73 66 76 / 50 40 60 70
VRB 67 75 66 75 / 50 50 70 70
LEE 64 71 58 74 / 20 10 30 40
SFB 65 71 60 72 / 30 20 40 40
ORL 65 72 62 74 / 30 20 40 50
FPR 68 77 66 77 / 50 60 70 80
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX/RADAR...LASCODY
UPDATES/AVIATION...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
930 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM GIVEN WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST RAP SHOWS FOG LIKELY NOT BREAKING
UP UNTIL 10-11AM ACROSS THE AREA. VSBY HAVE COME UP A BIT ACROSS
THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH NETWORK WSR-
88D IMAGERY SHOWING MUCH OF THE RAIN REMAINING ACROSS NC/TN/AL.
STILL SOME POCKETS OF DRIZZLE NOTED IN SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER THIS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MARCHES
ACROSS TN AND THE CENTRAL GULF STATES.
STILL FORECASTING FOG AND STRATUS TO BURN OFF SLOWLY THIS MORNING
WITH SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR DECEMBER 1ST WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
THROUGH CSRA...WITH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S WHERE CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER AND LIMIT INSOLATION.
AGAIN FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
APPROACHING TONIGHT...HOWEVER WILL SLOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA TONIGHT WITH LOWERS POPS ELSEWHERE DUE
TO THE FRONTAL INTERACTIONS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. FOG AND STRATUS
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FRONT SHOULD
START PUSHING EAST LATE WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...PWAT VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
RISE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. IT ALSO STILL APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AS WELL WITH
FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2C. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND UPPER FORCING REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WEDNESDAY AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
A MILD AIRMASS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER TEMPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODELS SHOWING A
NARROWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR.
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN BEGIN SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 16Z-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 21Z. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND BE JUST WEST OF THE
TAF SITES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AGAIN
FOR TONIGHT WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE. HAVE INCLUDED IFR FOG AT
ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING AROUND 02/05Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR FOG AND STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED INTO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS COLUMBIA SC
840 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO 11 AM GIVEN
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES.
LATEST RAP SHOWS FOG LIKELY NOT BREAKING UP UNTIL 10-11AM ACROSS
THE AREA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH NETWORK
WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWING MUCH OF THE RAIN REMAINING ACROSS
NC/TN/AL. SOME DRIZZLE NOTED IN SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS...HOWEVER THIS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN MIGRATING NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MARCHES ACROSS TN AND THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES. EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS TO BURN OFF SLOWLY THIS MORNING
WITH SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS THROUGH CSRA...WITH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WHERE CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER AND
LIMIT INSOLATION.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING TONIGHT...HOWEVER WILL SLOW
AS IT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA TONIGHT WITH
LOWERS POPS ELSEWHERE DUE TO THE FRONTAL INTERACTIONS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FRONT SHOULD
START PUSHING EAST LATE WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...PWAT VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
RISE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. IT ALSO STILL APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AS WELL WITH
FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2C. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND UPPER FORCING REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WEDNESDAY AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
A MILD AIRMASS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER TEMPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODELS SHOWING A
NARROWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR.
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN BEGIN SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY 16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 21Z. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND BE JUST WEST OF THE
TAF SITES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT
AND WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE INCLUDED IFR FOG AT ALL TAF
SITES BEGINNING AROUND 02/05Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR FOG AND STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED INTO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
900 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
Have updated once already to reflect pcpn trends. Will be needing
another update to finish pcpn in the southeast and then try to
reflect the correct trend in the cloud cover remainder of the
night. This will be a challenge given the clear skies in the west,
the partly to mostly cloudy skies in the east, and then the
possible trend of more clouds moving into the west from IA/MO
later tonight. Satellite trends and new model data are being
monitored to see how much arrives and when. Another issue is
possible light fog overnight in the clear areas. HiRes models
indicate no fog issues overnight while Bufkit data shows some. For
now will leave out of gridded forecast. Update will be out
shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
Our large upper low was located near Chicago at mid afternoon. Last
of the surface boundaries rotating around the low extended from
about Rantoul to Taylorville on the most recent observations, with
the snow quickly tapering off west of it. Most accumulations have
been minor as temperatures remained above freezing, but some
localized reports around an inch were received mainly along and
north of I-74. Most of this precipitation should be out of the
forecast area by 6 pm, but will carry some low PoP`s near the
Indiana border until about mid evening.
Clearing trends behind the low will be a bit tricky. Large area of
clearing was dropping southward across Iowa with some breaks in west
central and northwest Illinois. However, clouds were still more
extensive across Wisconsin. NAM humidity plots quickly scour this
out over our area by mid evening, but the RAP is much slower with a
more persistent inversion around 2500 feet. Followed a more slow
trend with the sky grids for the cloud breakup, with skies partly
cloudy by midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
The upper low will depart well to the east of Illinois on Thursday,
as ridging builds into the Midwest. Surface high pressure and much
drier air will provide quiet weather for the remainder of the week
and first half of the weekend. Clouds will clear out on Thursday,
with increasing sunshine and southerly winds fueling a warming
trend through Saturday. Highs on Thursday will reach the low to
mid 40s, but temps will climb into the low 50s by Saturday.
A relatively zonal flow will continue into next week, but there
remains differences in timing of the next wave coming out of the
Plains. The ECMWF remains progressive with the next low, bringing it
into IL on Sunday and east of IL by Monday afternoon. The GFS and
Canadian show a slower solution, with somewhat of a cut-off period
for the upper low before it passes by to the south of Illinois late
Monday and Monday night. The forecast for Sunday through Monday
night was left relatively dry, with only slight chance PoPs south of
I-70 on Sunday night, and south of our counties south of highway 50
on Monday. Any precipitation should fall as rain, with the
temperatures remaining at or above normal during that time.
Another trough of low pressure could approach for Wednesday, per the
GFS, but the ECMWF keeps that system north of IL. The overall theme
looks to be for temps at or above normal, with lows in the low to
mid 30s and highs in the upper 40s to around 50 from Monday to
Wednesday next week, along with minimal precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
Clouds still moving across the area, but a clearing area is seen
on radar and is expected to make its way into the area and affect
all TAF sites this evening. PIA and SPI should see the clearing
first in next couple of hours, followed by DEC, then BMI and
lastly CMI around midnight. Looks like some isolated snow showers
are still around and will likely only affect BMI, DEC, and CMI.
All sites will see clear skies and lighter winds as high pressure
moves toward the area overnight. With the lighter winds, low level
moisture, and clear skies overnight think light fog will be
possible. Some uncertainty with this as not all models in
agreement, so will just have TEMPO group for now.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
553 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
Our large upper low was located near Chicago at mid afternoon. Last
of the surface boundaries rotating around the low extended from
about Rantoul to Taylorville on the most recent observations, with
the snow quickly tapering off west of it. Most accumulations have
been minor as temperatures remained above freezing, but some
localized reports around an inch were received mainly along and
north of I-74. Most of this precipitation should be out of the
forecast area by 6 pm, but will carry some low PoP`s near the
Indiana border until about mid evening.
Clearing trends behind the low will be a bit tricky. Large area of
clearing was dropping southward across Iowa with some breaks in west
central and northwest Illinois. However, clouds were still more
extensive across Wisconsin. NAM humidity plots quickly scour this
out over our area by mid evening, but the RAP is much slower with a
more persistent inversion around 2500 feet. Followed a more slow
trend with the sky grids for the cloud breakup, with skies partly
cloudy by midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
The upper low will depart well to the east of Illinois on Thursday,
as ridging builds into the Midwest. Surface high pressure and much
drier air will provide quiet weather for the remainder of the week
and first half of the weekend. Clouds will clear out on Thursday,
with increasing sunshine and southerly winds fueling a warming
trend through Saturday. Highs on Thursday will reach the low to
mid 40s, but temps will climb into the low 50s by Saturday.
A relatively zonal flow will continue into next week, but there
remains differences in timing of the next wave coming out of the
Plains. The ECMWF remains progressive with the next low, bringing it
into IL on Sunday and east of IL by Monday afternoon. The GFS and
Canadian show a slower solution, with somewhat of a cut-off period
for the upper low before it passes by to the south of Illinois late
Monday and Monday night. The forecast for Sunday through Monday
night was left relatively dry, with only slight chance PoPs south of
I-70 on Sunday night, and south of our counties south of highway 50
on Monday. Any precipitation should fall as rain, with the
temperatures remaining at or above normal during that time.
Another trough of low pressure could approach for Wednesday, per the
GFS, but the ECMWF keeps that system north of IL. The overall theme
looks to be for temps at or above normal, with lows in the low to
mid 30s and highs in the upper 40s to around 50 from Monday to
Wednesday next week, along with minimal precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
Clouds still moving across the area, but a clearing area is seen
on radar and is expected to make its way into the area and affect
all TAF sites this evening. PIA and SPI should see the clearing
first in next couple of hours, followed by DEC, then BMI and
lastly CMI around midnight. Looks like some isolated snow showers
are still around and will likely only affect BMI, DEC, and CMI.
All sites will see clear skies and lighter winds as high pressure
moves toward the area overnight. With the lighter winds, low level
moisture, and clear skies overnight think light fog will be
possible. Some uncertainty with this as not all models in
agreement, so will just have TEMPO group for now.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1156 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
Threat of measurable rainfall rapidly coming to an end across
central and southeast Illinois this evening as mid-level drying is
surging in from the west. However, lingering low-level
moisture/stratus keeps the threat of drizzle going for much of the
night. The cold front associated with the strong storm system
lifting into the Great Lakes will not arrive until Tuesday, so
southerly winds persisting through the night will keep
temperatures from falling too far overnight. Plan to adjust PoPs
for the rest of the night based on the latest trends, and only a
few other minor tweaks appear necessary at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
Initial batch of light rain has exited the forecast area early this
afternoon, however some patches of drizzle were persisting in the
low stratus. Next wave of light rain was crossing the Missouri
border near Quincy as of 2 pm, with some light rain/drizzle seen on
radar as far southwest as southwest Missouri. Have concentrated the
highest PoP`s into this evening across areas west of I-55 and
increased them somewhat.
Latest water vapor imagery showing large upper low centered over
Nebraska this afternoon. Dry slot is spreading northeast out of
Oklahoma and Kansas, and marks the back edge of the precipitation
shield along the cold front. A steady decrease in rain chances will
occur from west to east after midnight as this drier air arrives.
Latest RAP guidance suggests the cold front moving into areas near
the Illinois River in the 2-3 am time frame, reaching the Indiana
border toward 6 am. Until the front gets here, temperatures across
the forecast area likely to remain fairly steady this evening, and
most of the night across eastern Illinois.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
The slow moving upper low is forecast to be located over extreme
northwest Iowa Tuesday morning with a well defined dry slot pushing
into southwest Illinois. Most of the rain that occurs overnight
should be off to our east Tuesday morning with a decrease in cloud
cover from southwest to northeast during the morning. Soundings
continue to suggest gusty southwest winds during the day with
temperatures at or just above normal again, mostly in the 40s. The
upper low is then forecast to shift mostly east into southern
Wisconsin by Wednesday morning, which is a bit further south than
what we had been seeing, although the 12z ECMWF from yesterday was
hinting at this. The surface low will push across the lower Great
Lakes as well with a shortwave pivoting southeast into the area late
Tue. night into Wednesday morning which may bring some patchy light
snow or flurries to parts of the area.
With the further south position of the upper/surface lows, the wrap-
around moisture will drive further southeast into our forecast area
as well with some low chance POPs on Wednesday for flurries in the
morning, and sprinkles or flurries in the afternoon as the low level
cyclonic flow dominates into Wednesday night/early Thursday.
Temperatures will be colder as well during the day Wednesday with
afternoon readings in the upper 30s far north to the middle 40s
south, which is close to where they should be this time of year. A
rather quiet weather pattern will prevail through the remainder of
the extended forecast period as the deep upper low shifts away from
the Midwest with 500 mb heights building across the region. This
should result in a gradual moderating trend for the end of the week
with afternoon temperatures by Friday well into the 40s to low 50s.
No sign of any breakdown in the mild pattern for us into early next
week as the main longwave trof will be across the western part of
the country which should result in above normal temperatures for
much of our area through the weekend. A trof is expected to eject
east-northeast into the Southern Plains Sunday and into Missouri by
next Monday bringing a chance for rain to the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
Several more hours of IFR conditions likely across the central
Illinois terminals late tonight into early Tuesday. Then,
skies will rapidly clear as drying wraps around a storm system
lifting into the Great Lakes. Once the skies scatter out by
midday, VFR condtions will prevail for the rest of the period.
West to southwest winds will gust from 20-25 kts during much of
the daytime hours Tuesday.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1007 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW AROUND THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO NEXT WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1007 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
AS ANTICIPATED...SNOW SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA. DID MANAGE TO PICK UP LIGHT ACCUMS IN SEVERAL SPOTS EARLIER
AS A PARTICULARLY INTENSE SNOW SHOWER PUSHED THROUGH INDY
METRO...AND EVEN HAD SOME THUNDERSNOW REPORTED. REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD TREND TOWARD DECREASING CLOUD AND TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN MANY AREAS. GOING TEMP FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
POPS AND SKY GRIDS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 626 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET
WITH THE HEAVIEST RETURNS AS GRAUPEL/SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED IN A
FEW LOCATIONS. QUICK FEW TENTHS ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS. ROADS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OK ASIDE FROM PERHAPS
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING
34 TO 38 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
SCATTERED SNOW /AND SOME RAIN/ SHOWERS WERE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW WAS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...THESE SHOWERS WILL WORK THERE WAY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE 00Z. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT EXPECT SNOW
TO BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS COLDER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN.
AT 00Z...HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS STILL SHOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE DERIVED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER STILL INDICATES THE
THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.
THUS WILL RAISE MOS POPS AND GO CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ALL AREAS AT
00Z. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND END THESE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND
THE LOW. MOS IS USUALLY TOO FAST WITH CLEARING SO WENT A LITTLE
SLOWER...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE
SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO STILL GET DOWN TO MOS NUMBERS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
FOCUS IS ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND WAS USED.
STILL EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
IN DURING THE DAY...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH. THE INCREASING
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO GET NEAR MOS NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT EVEN MORE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MAV MOS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING AND
POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION.
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN
PLACE ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PROMOTING A DRY COLUMN. BY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST AN
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TO
APPALACHIA. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS
WARRANTED...BUT SUPERBLEND KEEPS ALL POPS LESS THAN 20. THUS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST OVERALL FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE POPS INCREASE AS THIS FORECAST PROGRESSES DUE TO
THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 937 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
0230Z UPDATE...ONE LAST MODERATE AREA OF SNOW EXITING THE KIND
TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPDATED THE TAF TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVED MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR ONCE THIS AREA OF -SHSN EXITS TO THE EAST. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION(S)
FOLLOW.
2350Z UPDATE...UPDATED KIND TAF TO REFLECT THE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN SOUTHEAST
HENDRICKS COUNTY...POSSIBLE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE KIND
TERMINAL. HAVE INCLUDE -TSSN AND CB GROUP TEMPO/D FOR IFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL 02Z.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SITES MAY
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER THE LATEST ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVES
THROUGH...WHILE A FEW TERMINALS WILL HAVE LINGERING MVFR STRATUS
CEILINGS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. HRRR INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST
BY 02-03Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST FORCING ENDING BY 01-02Z.
THUS HAVE MENTION PREVAILING PRECIP UNTIL THIS TIME...TAPERING OFF
MAINLY SHORTLY AFTER 02-3Z. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LINGERING LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY THE
LOWER PARTS OF THE COLUMN AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD
MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT FOR A FEW OF THE SITES AS SOME TRAPPED
MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER. A RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL THE SITES IS
EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/NIELD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
940 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW AROUND THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO NEXT WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 626 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET
WITH THE HEAVIEST RETURNS AS GRAUPEL/SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED IN A
FEW LOCATIONS. QUICK FEW TENTHS ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS. ROADS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OK ASIDE FROM PERHAPS
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING
34 TO 38 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
SCATTERED SNOW /AND SOME RAIN/ SHOWERS WERE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW WAS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...THESE SHOWERS WILL WORK THERE WAY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE 00Z. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT EXPECT SNOW
TO BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS COLDER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN.
AT 00Z...HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS STILL SHOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE DERIVED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER STILL INDICATES THE
THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.
THUS WILL RAISE MOS POPS AND GO CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ALL AREAS AT
00Z. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND END THESE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND
THE LOW. MOS IS USUALLY TOO FAST WITH CLEARING SO WENT A LITTLE
SLOWER...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE
SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO STILL GET DOWN TO MOS NUMBERS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
FOCUS IS ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND WAS USED.
STILL EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
IN DURING THE DAY...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH. THE INCREASING
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO GET NEAR MOS NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT EVEN MORE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MAV MOS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING AND
POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION.
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN
PLACE ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PROMOTING A DRY COLUMN. BY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST AN
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TO
APPALACHIA. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS
WARRANTED...BUT SUPERBLEND KEEPS ALL POPS LESS THAN 20. THUS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST OVERALL FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE POPS INCREASE AS THIS FORECAST PROGRESSES DUE TO
THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 937 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
0230Z UPDATE...ONE LAST MODERATE AREA OF SNOW EXITING THE KIND
TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPDATED THE TAF TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVED MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR ONCE THIS AREA OF -SHSN EXITS TO THE EAST. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION(S)
FOLLOW.
2350Z UPDATE...UPDATED KIND TAF TO REFLECT THE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN SOUTHEAST
HENDRICKS COUNTY...POSSIBLE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE KIND
TERMINAL. HAVE INCLUDE -TSSN AND CB GROUP TEMPO/D FOR IFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL 02Z.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SITES MAY
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER THE LATEST ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVES
THROUGH...WHILE A FEW TERMINALS WILL HAVE LINGERING MVFR STRATUS
CEILINGS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. HRRR INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST
BY 02-03Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST FORCING ENDING BY 01-02Z.
THUS HAVE MENTION PREVAILING PRECIP UNTIL THIS TIME...TAPERING OFF
MAINLY SHORTLY AFTER 02-3Z. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LINGERING LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY THE
LOWER PARTS OF THE COLUMN AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD
MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT FOR A FEW OF THE SITES AS SOME TRAPPED
MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER. A RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL THE SITES IS
EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/NIELD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW AROUND THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO NEXT WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 626 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET
WITH THE HEAVIEST RETURNS AS GRAUPEL/SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED IN A
FEW LOCATIONS. QUICK FEW TENTHS ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS. ROADS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OK ASIDE FROM PERHAPS
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING
34 TO 38 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
SCATTERED SNOW /AND SOME RAIN/ SHOWERS WERE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW WAS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...THESE SHOWERS WILL WORK THERE WAY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE 00Z. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT EXPECT SNOW
TO BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS COLDER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN.
AT 00Z...HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS STILL SHOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE DERIVED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER STILL INDICATES THE
THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.
THUS WILL RAISE MOS POPS AND GO CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ALL AREAS AT
00Z. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND END THESE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND
THE LOW. MOS IS USUALLY TOO FAST WITH CLEARING SO WENT A LITTLE
SLOWER...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE
SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO STILL GET DOWN TO MOS NUMBERS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
FOCUS IS ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND WAS USED.
STILL EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
IN DURING THE DAY...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH. THE INCREASING
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO GET NEAR MOS NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT EVEN MORE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MAV MOS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING AND
POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION.
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN
PLACE ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PROMOTING A DRY COLUMN. BY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST AN
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TO
APPALACHIA. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS
WARRANTED...BUT SUPERBLEND KEEPS ALL POPS LESS THAN 20. THUS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST OVERALL FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE POPS INCREASE AS THIS FORECAST PROGRESSES DUE TO
THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
2350Z UPDATE...UPDATED KIND TAF TO REFLECT THE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN SOUTHEAST
HENDRICKS COUNTY...POSSIBLE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE KIND
TERMINAL. HAVE INCLUDE -TSSN AND CB GROUP TEMPO/D FOR IFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL 02Z.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SITES MAY
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER THE LATEST ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVES
THROUGH...WHILE A FEW TERMINALS WILL HAVE LINGERING MVFR STRATUS
CEILINGS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. HRRR INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST
BY 02-03Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST FORCING ENDING BY 01-02Z.
THUS HAVE MENTION PREVAILING PRECIP UNTIL THIS TIME...TAPERING OFF
MAINLY SHORTLY AFTER 02-3Z. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LINGERING LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY THE
LOWER PARTS OF THE COLUMN AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD
MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT FOR A FEW OF THE SITES AS SOME TRAPPED
MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER. A RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL THE SITES IS
EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/NIELD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
626 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW AROUND THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO NEXT WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 626 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET
WITH THE HEAVIEST RETURNS AS GRAUPEL/SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED IN A
FEW LOCATIONS. QUICK FEW TENTHS ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS. ROADS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OK ASIDE FROM PERHAPS
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING
34 TO 38 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
SCATTERED SNOW /AND SOME RAIN/ SHOWERS WERE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW WAS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...THESE SHOWERS WILL WORK THERE WAY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE 00Z. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT EXPECT SNOW
TO BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS COLDER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN.
AT 00Z...HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS STILL SHOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE DERIVED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER STILL INDICATES THE
THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.
THUS WILL RAISE MOS POPS AND GO CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ALL AREAS AT
00Z. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND END THESE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND
THE LOW. MOS IS USUALLY TOO FAST WITH CLEARING SO WENT A LITTLE
SLOWER...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE
SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO STILL GET DOWN TO MOS NUMBERS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
FOCUS IS ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND WAS USED.
STILL EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
IN DURING THE DAY...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH. THE INCREASING
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO GET NEAR MOS NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT EVEN MORE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MAV MOS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING AND
POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION.
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN
PLACE ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PROMOTING A DRY COLUMN. BY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST AN
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TO
APPALACHIA. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS
WARRANTED...BUT SUPERBLEND KEEPS ALL POPS LESS THAN 20. THUS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST OVERALL FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE POPS INCREASE AS THIS FORECAST PROGRESSES DUE TO
THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 616 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SITES MAY
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER THE LATEST ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVES
THROUGH...WHILE A FEW TERMINALS WILL HAVE LINGERING MVFR STRATUS
CEILINGS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. HRRR INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST
BY 02-03Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST FORCING ENDING BY 01-02Z.
THUS HAVE MENTION PREVAILING PRECIP UNTIL THIS TIME...TAPERING OFF
MAINLY SHORTLY AFTER 02-3Z. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LINGERING LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY THE
LOWER PARTS OF THE COLUMN AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD
MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT FOR A FEW OF THE SITES AS SOME TRAPPED
MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER. A RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL THE SITES IS
EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/NIELD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
624 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW AROUND THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO NEXT WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
SCATTERED SNOW /AND SOME RAIN/ SHOWERS WERE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW WAS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...THESE SHOWERS WILL WORK THERE WAY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE 00Z. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT EXPECT SNOW
TO BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS COLDER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN.
AT 00Z...HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS STILL SHOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE DERIVED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER STILL INDICATES THE
THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.
THUS WILL RAISE MOS POPS AND GO CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ALL AREAS AT
00Z. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND END THESE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND
THE LOW. MOS IS USUALLY TOO FAST WITH CLEARING SO WENT A LITTLE
SLOWER...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE
SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO STILL GET DOWN TO MOS NUMBERS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
FOCUS IS ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND WAS USED.
STILL EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
IN DURING THE DAY...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH. THE INCREASING
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO GET NEAR MOS NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT EVEN MORE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MAV MOS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING AND
POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION.
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN
PLACE ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PROMOTING A DRY COLUMN. BY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST AN
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TO
APPALACHIA. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS
WARRANTED...BUT SUPERBLEND KEEPS ALL POPS LESS THAN 20. THUS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST OVERALL FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE POPS INCREASE AS THIS FORECAST PROGRESSES DUE TO
THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 616 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SITES MAY
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER THE LATEST ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVES
THROUGH...WHILE A FEW TERMINALS WILL HAVE LINGERING MVFR STRATUS
CEILINGS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. HRRR INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST
BY 02-03Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST FORCING ENDING BY 01-02Z.
THUS HAVE MENTION PREVAILING PRECIP UNTIL THIS TIME...TAPERING OFF
MAINLY SHORTLY AFTER 02-3Z. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LINGERING LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY THE
LOWER PARTS OF THE COLUMN AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD
MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT FOR A FEW OF THE SITES AS SOME TRAPPED
MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER. A RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL THE SITES IS
EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...SMF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
318 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH AN 850
MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN...THROUGH INDIANA...AND INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS. A TROF RAN FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW WRAP AROUND CLOUDS FROM THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS IOWA WITH SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LITTLE
IF ANY CLOUDS RAN FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
18Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NEAR KRWF. THE MAIN
FRONT RAN EAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THEN SOUTH INTO
OHIO AND THEN MISSISSIPPI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND HIGHER
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
RADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT
WEST OF A FREEPORT TO OTTUMWA LINE. BASED ON RAP TRENDS...THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS GENERALLY WEST OF A KRFD TO KIRK LINE. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE ON THE GRASS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES
ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO THE SNOW SHOULD MELT ON THE ROADS.
THERE MAY BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE NEW SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
WISCONSIN. THE BETTER CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF I-
80 AND ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE A DUSTING.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE NOCTURNAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY IN
THE LATE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD AGAIN BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.
NEW DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE EAST OF I-39. THE QUESTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS WILL THERE BE ANY NEW ACCUMULATION. AT BEST THERE MAY
BE A DUSTING ON THE GRASS OR ELEVATED SURFACES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REACH NEAR 50 THIS WEEKEND.
LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL TURN TO SW FLOW LATE DURING THE WEEK.
MODERATION UNDER THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH THE SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY COULD BE AS HIGH AS 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE MID WEEK.
MID WEEKEND AN ADVANCING MID LEVEL WAVE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND FLOW. HOWEVER...THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE LEADING TO LIMITED
FORECASTABILITY FOR ANY PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND QUIET
WEATHER TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR THROUGH 00Z
AS WRAP AROUND CLOUDS FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH 01Z/02. IF SNOW SHOWERS HIT A TAF SITE IT COULD RESULT IN
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE AFT 06Z/02 THAT MAY RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS. THE
18Z TAFS CARRY VCSH AND WILL BE AMENDED ONCE THE SHSN THREAT IS
BETTER DEFINED.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE SPOTTY IN
CENTRAL IOWA. TRENDS FROM SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ONE NEGATIVE IN PLAY IS THAT THE 0-2KM WINDS ARE
QUITE STRONG WHICH MIGHT PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
AT 3 AM CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR SIOUX FALLS
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. RELATIVELY MILD AIR REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. A W/SW BREEZE WAS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS.
PATCHY DRIZZLE PERSISTED IN FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
PATCHY DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK
FOR A GUSTY W/SW WIND...NEAR 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATED BY BUFR
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS AN IDEAL SET-UP FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THIS SCENARIO HAS SUPPORT FROM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NMM. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS NEAR I-80 MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW
OR RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES. SOME AREAS AFFECTED BY THE SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT PICK UP A LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SUDDEN BURSTS OF SNOW THAT REDUCE VISIBILITY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW INCREASES. AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE
MORNING AS LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/VORTICITY MAX TRACKS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ENHANCED
VORT. LOBE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER-LOW LEADING TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW SFC LOW OVER NE ILLINOIS WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY TRACK INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER-LOW WILL ADVECT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY AND LAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK PVA...AND CONVERGENCE ATTENDANT TO A SUBTLE
SFC PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MODELS ARE PAINTING
QPF OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO. SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE MID MORNING...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...SO
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE.
NAM/NMM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTN...COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES REDEVELOP. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
WITH AN EXTENSION INTO THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS AND
WAA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...850MB TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE BY
APPROXIMATELY 16 C. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON
THURSDAY THEN MID TO UPPER 40S BY FRIDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL
MAKE IT FEEL VERY NICE BY EARLY DECEMBER STANDARDS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MILD/ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS NEAR 552 DAM AND
850MB TEMPS NEAR 5 C. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
POTENTIAL SOUTHWEST U.S. SHORTWAVE MAY REACH THE MIDWEST BY MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THIS FAR OUT. UTTECH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR THROUGH 00Z
AS WRAP AROUND CLOUDS FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH 01Z/02. IF SNOW SHOWERS HIT A TAF SITE IT COULD RESULT IN
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE AFT 06Z/02 THAT MAY RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS. THE
18Z TAFS CARRY VCSH AND WILL BE AMENDED ONCE THE SHSN THREAT IS
BETTER DEFINED.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
638 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
AT 3 AM CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR SIOUX FALLS
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. RELATIVELY MILD AIR REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. A W/SW BREEZE WAS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS.
PATCHY DRIZZLE PERSISTED IN FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
PATCHY DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK
FOR A GUSTY W/SW WIND...NEAR 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATED BY BUFR
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS AN IDEAL SET-UP FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THIS SCENARIO HAS SUPPORT FROM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NMM. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS NEAR I-80 MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW
OR RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES. SOME AREAS AFFECTED BY THE SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT PICK UP A LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SUDDEN BURSTS OF SNOW THAT REDUCE VISIBILITY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW INCREASES. AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE
MORNING AS LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/VORTICITY MAX TRACKS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ENHANCED
VORT. LOBE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER-LOW LEADING TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW SFC LOW OVER NE ILLINOIS WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY TRACK INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER-LOW WILL ADVECT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY AND LAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK PVA...AND CONVERGENCE ATTENDANT TO A SUBTLE
SFC PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MODELS ARE PAINTING
QPF OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO. SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE MID MORNING...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...SO
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE.
NAM/NMM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTN...COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES REDEVELOP. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
WITH AN EXTENSION INTO THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS AND
WAA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...850MB TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE BY
APPROXIMATELY 16 C. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON
THURSDAY THEN MID TO UPPER 40S BY FRIDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL
MAKE IT FEEL VERY NICE BY EARLY DECEMBER STANDARDS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MILD/ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS NEAR 552 DAM AND
850MB TEMPS NEAR 5 C. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
POTENTIAL SOUTHWEST U.S. SHORTWAVE MAY REACH THE MIDWEST BY MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THIS FAR OUT. UTTECH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AT KCID/KDBQ. MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL BE
COMMON...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN POCKETS OF
HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOW SHOWERS FAVORED
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. A W/SW WIND WILL GUST AOA 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DIMINISH BELOW 10 KTS THIS EVENING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
341 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
AT 3 AM CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR SIOUX FALLS
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. RELATIVELY MILD AIR REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. A W/SW BREEZE WAS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS.
PATCHY DRIZZLE PERSISTED IN FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
PATCHY DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK
FOR A GUSTY W/SW WIND...NEAR 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATED BY BUFR
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS AN IDEAL SET-UP FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THIS SCENARIO HAS SUPPORT FROM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NMM. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS NEAR I-80 MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW
OR RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES. SOME AREAS AFFECTED BY THE SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT PICK UP A LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SUDDEN BURSTS OF SNOW THAT REDUCE VISIBILITY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW INCREASES. AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE
MORNING AS LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/VORTICITY MAX TRACKS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ENHANCED
VORT. LOBE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER-LOW LEADING TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW SFC LOW OVER NE ILLINOIS WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY TRACK INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER-LOW WILL ADVECT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY AND LAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK PVA...AND CONVERGENCE ATTENDANT TO A SUBTLE
SFC PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MODELS ARE PAINTING
QPF OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO. SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE MID MORNING...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...SO
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE.
NAM/NMM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTN...COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES REDEVELOP. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
WITH AN EXTENSION INTO THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS AND
WAA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...850MB TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE BY
APPROXIMATELY 16 C. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON
THURSDAY THEN MID TO UPPER 40S BY FRIDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL
MAKE IT FEEL VERY NICE BY EARLY DECEMBER STANDARDS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MILD/ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS NEAR 552 DAM AND
850MB TEMPS NEAR 5 C. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
POTENTIAL SOUTHWEST U.S. SHORTWAVE MAY REACH THE MIDWEST BY MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THIS FAR OUT. UTTECH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 01/09Z AS A COOL FRONT PASSES. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO 20+ KTS WITH CEILINGS
RISING TO 1-3K AGL AND VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 6 MILES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1139 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS EVENING AND
ASSESS POTENTIAL HEADLINE UPDATES LATER THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT BEGINNING TO ARRIVE OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TO CENTRAL IA. SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
GOOD SIDE OF FREEZING AND SHOULD KEEP THAT TREND FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS DESPITE TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGINNING TO COOL. EVENTUALLY
WITH HAVE MIXED PHASES OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 32 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IA WITH SUB SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S THEN BOTH BEING COOLER OVER THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
MITIGATE ICY POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS WELL. EXPECT NEXT
HEADLINE UPDATE OUT BY 9 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
DRY SLOT CURRENTLY WORKING INTO IOWA WITH BROAD PRECIPITATION AREA
LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST IS RAIN AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. HOWEVER...STILL SOME MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW
IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WITH ONLY SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST. AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN FROM TWO TO FIVE INCHES IN FAR WEST CENTRAL TO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST. BOTH THE NAM AND THE HRRR INDICATE SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ON NORTHERN EDGE OF DRY SLOT THIS EVENING AND ANTICIPATE
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION PERSISTING MAINLY NORTH OF I80.
THEREAFTER...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS TROF AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE. MAY
BEGIN TO SEE SOME WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL EDGE INTO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN AS WELL THAT WITH SOME LACK OF SATURATION
ALOFT...FREEZING DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH. THIS STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE THREAT IN THE ZONES. AS FOR
HEADLINES...ADJUSTED AREAS AFTER MIDDAY AND WILL LEAVE CURRENT
ALIGNMENT IN PLACE FOR NOW UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF PCPN MOVES THRU.
LIKELY WILL SEE SOME CANCELLATION AND/OR DOWNGRADE OF MUCH OF THE
WARNING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF FINAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
CROSSING MISSOURI RIVER INTO WESTERN IOWA.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
BROAD UPPER LOW IMPACTING THE STATE...AND CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST SLOWLY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MOVING OVER IOWA TUESDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM WRAPPED UP WITH A CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD LIFT WITH THE LOW ALOFT...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE SO ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LIFT SO ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...WITH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS AND ALSO MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY SOME
LINGERING LIGHT FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITH LOW CLOUDS REMAINING IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE CLEARING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. H85 TEMPS
WARM ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL US ALOFT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE WITH H85 TEMP CLIMBING
TO AROUND +6C TO +8C OR HIGHER BY SATURDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL US BY MONDAY...WHICH
COULD INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY STAY TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
IOWA...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED IF IT DOES.
&&
.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA WHILE
SKIES STARTING TO SCT OVER SOUTHWEST IA. EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR AT
KDSM/KOTM AND POSSIBLY FARTHER NORTH. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AND IFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN OVER MAINLY NORTHERN IA BY TUE AFTERNOON.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR EMMET-KOSSUTH-
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WINNEBAGO.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR BREMER-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-WEBSTER-WORTH-
WRIGHT.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DONAVON
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1133 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW IN SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH AN 850MB
WARM FRONT RUNNING FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL IOWA. LARGE AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE RAN FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND OHIO
VALLEYS. RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS AN EXPANDING AREA OF
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN IOWA.
18Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW JUST SOUTH OF KOMA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RUNNING SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 30S AND HIGHER FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. RAP MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE THE RAIN SHOULD EXPAND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS INDICATES A LACK OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF MISSOURI. THUS THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT THE RAIN MAY START
ENDING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND END ACROSS
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
THERMAL PROFILES SHOW THE PRECIPITATION BEING ALL RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERMAL PROFILES START
COOLING AS THE FORCING EXITS THE AREA. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES
WILL THE RAIN END BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. BASED ON WHAT THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT SHOULD END UP BEING
ALL RAIN...OR...THERE MIGHT BE A VERY BRIEF MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION ENDING.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.
ON TUESDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE WRAP AROUND CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. AS COLDER
AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA...FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND MID DAY IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA AND SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A TRACE TO DUSTING AT BEST AND SHOULD ONLY OCCUR
ON ELEVATED SURFACES OR GRASS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
NIGHT. AFTER THIS PERIOD...RIDGING MOVES IN AND A WARMING TREND
TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
H5 CLOSED LOW SLOWLY ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH OCCLUDED
SFC LOW WILL LEAD TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. H5 CVA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE
FORCING...IT APPEARS THAT WHILE THE TEMP PROFILE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...THERE IS A LACK OF LOW LEVEL RISING MOTION
AND PRODUCTION OF SNOW. THE BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...WENT WITH LOW CHC SN- ACROSS THIS
AREA WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND OCCURS. HIRES 4KM NAM SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...THIS SUPPORTS THE GFS AND
LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING.
REST OF THE EXTENDED...
H5 RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL LEAD TO QUIET
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A WARMING PATTERN
WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AVERAGE AND THEN ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW AND THE SUBSEQUENT WARMING OF TEMPS. AFTER
THIS...ANOTHER H5 TROF APPROACHES THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT IS TOO SOON WITH THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO DETERMINE IF PRECIP AT NIGHT WILL BE FROZEN
OR LIQUID.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 01/09Z AS A COOL FRONT PASSES. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO 20+ KTS WITH CEILINGS
RISING TO 1-3K AGL AND VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 6 MILES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1025 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
UPSTREAM RETURNS OVER THE LEX VICINITY ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS
FLURRIES PER LEX MEDIA. THIS REPORT PLUS TOP DOWN APPROACH AND
OF THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...LOWERING SFC DEWPOINTS...AND
DRY ADIABITIC TEMP PROFILE IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER ALL POINT
TOWARD WHAT PRECIP THAT DOES FALL OVERNIGHT FALLING AS ALL SNOW.
THE LIGHT PRECIP THAT DOES FALL SHOULD FALL DURING THE NEXT 6 HRS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW HAVE FLURRIES DOWN TO
NEAR THE SME TO LOZ TO I35 CORRIDOR WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
FURTHER NORTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG A SFC TROUGH THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL KY HAS WEAKENED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST KY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BRING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES OR EVEN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS...WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THIS FRONT IS CONNECTED TO GENERAL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGER LOW
IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH COOL AND BREEZY SHOWERS
COMING OUT OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION. THERE HAD BEEN REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL WITH THIS CLUSTER OF PCPN BACK OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA EARLIER IN THE DAY AND PROBABLY SOME FALLING FURTHER EAST
NOW. AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PRECEDE THE SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THIS IS LIKELY ADDING TO THE MARGINAL...BUT NONE
ZERO...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...READINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH DEWPOINTS
VARYING FROM THE MID 30S WEST TO THE MID 40S EAST. WINDS ARE
BREEZY AND FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME GUSTINESS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE COMPACT CLOSED
LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THE BEST OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS TRIGGERING SOME ROBUST SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS THROUGH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING
PARTICULARLY FROM THE GFS. SOME OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
TRAIL BEHIND THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS OVER
KENTUCKY. WITH THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE NAM12...AND ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR...FOR WEATHER DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BRISK EVENING OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL FROM THE SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
LATER...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE COLUMN COOLS. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FROM ANY SNOW SHOWERS. THE PCPN WILL DRY OUT LATER
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER
20S. DESPITE A RETURN OF FULL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB TOO FAR INTO THE MID 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO DEVELOP WITH
THE VALLEYS DOWN INTO THE MID 20S AND RIDGES SETTLING AROUND 30.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. FROM
THIS...MADE SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...WENT ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL MOS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY NORTH...WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE DRY SOUNDING
PROFILES...WE WILL LIKELY SURPASS GUIDANCE ON HIGHS PUTTING TEMPS
INTO THE LOW 50S ON FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER 50S BY SATURDAY...AND
AROUND 60 BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL BELOW
GUIDANCE...WITH THE COLDER VALLEYS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 20S
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.
MODELS STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME ON COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
12Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FASTEST...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THE GFS IS GENERALLY 12 TO 24 HOURS
SLOWER. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL
RUN...SUPPORTING THE SLOWER SOLUTION. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL INCLUDE
SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS
WRAPS UP THIS SYSTEM AND KEEPS SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW...OPTING TO DRY THINGS OUT BY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MUCH DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS VERY HIGH AROUND THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD UNTIL CLOSER TO 6Z...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SHOULD BRING SOME
MVFR CIGS...AND A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT REDUCE VIS BELOW MVFR. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
8Z TO 13Z WITH RENEWED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF/JP
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
843 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015
A band of slightly heavier precipitation has moved into southern IN
now and will track ESE into north central KY over the next few
hours. Winds will briefly pick up with this precipitation with gusts
of 20-30 mph possible. Still maybe a chance for a very light dusting
of snow on elevated surfaces, but think most areas will see no
accumulation. Updated pops to increase them across portions of
southern IN and near the Ohio River with the band coming through.
Issued at 552 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015
Just a few showers are left over from the rounds of precipitation
that moved through this afternoon. There were multiple reports of
graupel with these showers and some areas across the Bluegrass could
still see some of this over the next hour or two. The next area of
precipitation to move in is currently located over southwestern IN
and east central IL. Thinking remains largely the same with this
moving into southern IN counties between 00-01Z. Models then have it
weakening as the evening goes on. Recent AMDAR soundings from SDF do
show steep low level lapse rates up to -10 to -11C so snow showers
will certainly be a possibility. However, do not expect anything but
a dusting at best and briefly reduced visibilities from this
activity.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015
Main forecast concern this period is precip type with showers
expected ahead of an upper low now dropping south-southeast across
northern Illinois. The center of this feature will be over the
central IL/IN border by 00Z, and model soundings continue to show
our north and northeast zones saturated just up to the dendritic
growth zone, especially the latest NAM. The GFS and RUC are not as
robust, but given possibility and the axis of coldest temperatures
aloft swinging through at that point have kept in the snow or rain
shower chances through the evening hours. Given breezy conditions,
would not be surprised to see some briefly lower vsby in any heavier
snow showers across our northeast.
High pressure will build in slowly from the west for Thursday and
Thursday night, making for temperatures a little below
normal...though skies will be sunnier compared to the last few days.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015
High pressure will be over us Friday and then just to our east
Saturday. For Sunday and upper low moves across the Central Plains.
Forecast models, not surprisingly, differ in timing of this low
moving towards our region, with the 00Z Euro and the latest GEM
showing it right over our longitude by Monday morning, whereas the
GFS slows the low down and moves it into Deep South. The first camp
would bring precip in here Sunday night, whereas the latter holds it
off until Monday night. The 00Z GEFS has a high spread toward the
Euro and GEM solution, so have to keep in some pops Sunday night.
After that system, and assuming the Euro/GEM solution is the correct
choice, the next system drops into the Central Plains Wednesday.
There should be enough distance between these two systems to
preclude precip chances advertised by the GFS (which given it`s
slower solution has the two phasing a little and keeping enough
moisture around to generater rain chances). Will go dry for
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 552 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015
First round of rain showers, and a few ice pellets, will quickly
move east of LEX over the next hour. Meanwhile, a second upper
disturbance and frontal boundary will approach the TAF sites from
the NW. Expect another potential round of light showers and/or light
snow with this last batch at SDF/LEX. Best timing looks to be
between 11 PM and 1 AM EST at SDF, and between Midnight and 3 AM EST
at LEX. Most of the activity should be north of those two sites, so
will only mention VCSH for now. Some MVFR ceilings could accompany
this brief disturbance.
Otherwise, winds have settled a bit out of the west between 10 and
15 mph. However, a secondary batch of gusts up around 20 mph is
expected with the second front for a few hours. Winds slacken and
veer to a more NW component in the pre-dawn hours fo Thursday.
Expect clear skies and light NW winds on Thursday.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
527 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 527 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
Aviation update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 214 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
It appears the GFS is/has been modeling the low layer cloud
field/embedded pcpn pertaining to the wrap around spiral bands
rotating south of the Low track today. A close examination of the
GFS20 vs the NAM12 Modeled Sounding data reveals this in better
detail, and the net effect will be a sliver of isolated pops for
our northern most tier of counties/partial counties for snow
showers this evening/early night. Amounts should be minuscule and
melt upon grounding.
After tonight, dry/cold air advection more firmly overtakes the
entire atmospheric column, as surface High pressure anchors across
the Commonwealth. This will lead to 40s tmrw, again
Friday/approaching 50, with mainly upper half 20s/nr 30 each
night through the remainder of the work week.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
At the beginning of the extended period, high pressure at the sfc
and aloft over the PAH forecast area will begin to give way to srly
low level flow ahead of a developing mid level shrtwv trof.
The forward speed and evolution of the trof continues to be in
question by the med range models as it is shown to dive into the
central Plains midway through the weekend. Some model solutions
suggest an fast open wave (UKMET) and some favor a slower closed
low. The deterministic 12Z GFS had an especially srly, slow, and
deep solution, which affected the initialization blend all the way
into Tue. The GFS ensemble means even had a closed low in the data
by early Mon. WPC appeared to gravitate toward a faster, ensemble-
mean-dominated trend. Sfc reflection is limited, and it is an
educated guess as to what the sfc wind fields will look like from
Sun through Tue.
For this forecast package, due to timing/coverage uncertainty in the
pcpn fields, we will go with no more than slight chances of rain
showers for most of the region Sun through Mon, with just a sliver
of PoP remaining in the srn Pennyrile Mon night. This was only a
modest deviation from the initialization blend, in fact. Dry weather
is forecast beyond Mon night, with not a whole lot of change in the
near-seasonable temps with time.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 527 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
Light rain/snow showers moving SE across SE IL, SW IN could affect
KEVV. Maybe KOWB as well this evening though more uncertain.
Otherwise across the area mainly VFR cigs, ocnl MVFR KEVV Tri-
State region. Winds light WNW. Kept cigs/clouds around a tad
longer than previously forecast. Should clear out later, and
continue clear through Thursday morning.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
557 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 552 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015
Just a few showers are left over from the rounds of precipitation
that moved through this afternoon. There were multiple reports of
graupel with these showers and some areas across the Bluegrass could
still see some of this over the next hour or two. The next area of
precipitation to move in is currently located over southwestern IN
and east central IL. Thinking remains largely the same with this
moving into southern IN counties between 00-01Z. Models then have it
weakening as the evening goes on. Recent AMDAR soundings from SDF do
show steep low level lapse rates up to -10 to -11C so snow showers
will certainly be a possibility. However, do not expect anything but
a dusting at best and briefly reduced visibilities from this
activity.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015
Main forecast concern this period is precip type with showers
expected ahead of an upper low now dropping south-southeast across
northern Illinois. The center of this feature will be over the
central IL/IN border by 00Z, and model soundings continue to show
our north and northeast zones saturated just up to the dendritic
growth zone, especially the latest NAM. The GFS and RUC are not as
robust, but given possibility and the axis of coldest temperatures
aloft swinging through at that point have kept in the snow or rain
shower chances through the evening hours. Given breezy conditions,
would not be surprised to see some briefly lower vsby in any heavier
snow showers across our northeast.
High pressure will build in slowly from the west for Thursday and
Thursday night, making for temperatures a little below
normal...though skies will be sunnier compared to the last few days.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015
High pressure will be over us Friday and then just to our east
Saturday. For Sunday and upper low moves across the Central Plains.
Forecast models, not surprisingly, differ in timing of this low
moving towards our region, with the 00Z Euro and the latest GEM
showing it right over our longitude by Monday morning, whereas the
GFS slows the low down and moves it into Deep South. The first camp
would bring precip in here Sunday night, whereas the latter holds it
off until Monday night. The 00Z GEFS has a high spread toward the
Euro and GEM solution, so have to keep in some pops Sunday night.
After that system, and assuming the Euro/GEM solution is the correct
choice, the next system drops into the Central Plains Wednesday.
There should be enough distance between these two systems to
preclude precip chances advertised by the GFS (which given it`s
slower solution has the two phasing a little and keeping enough
moisture around to generater rain chances). Will go dry for
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 552 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015
First round of rain showers, and a few ice pellets, will quickly
move east of LEX over the next hour. Meanwhile, a second upper
disturbance and frontal boundary will approach the TAF sites from
the NW. Expect another potential round of light showers and/or light
snow with this last batch at SDF/LEX. Best timing looks to be
between 11 PM and 1 AM EST at SDF, and between Midnight and 3 AM EST
at LEX. Most of the activity should be north of those two sites, so
will only mention VCSH for now. Some MVFR ceilings could accompany
this brief disturbance.
Otherwise, winds have settled a bit out of the west between 10 and
15 mph. However, a secondary batch of gusts up around 20 mph is
expected with the second front for a few hours. Winds slacken and
veer to a more NW component in the pre-dawn hours fo Thursday.
Expect clear skies and light NW winds on Thursday.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
216 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WX FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE FROM THE 12Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR. ALSO ADJUSTED T AND
TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING VIA THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AND CURRENT
OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACTIVELY CROSSING CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT SLOWING AS IT COMES EAST. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTING
A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG IT IN ADDITION TO THE BATCH
CURRENTLY DRIFTING OVER FAR EAST PARTS OF THE STATE. THE RAIN HAS
BEEN MODERATELY HEAVY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. ADDITIONAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HEADWATERS OF THE CUMBERLAND TODAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER OUR AREA AND A SFC WAVE RUNS NORTH ALONG IT PER THE LATEST
NAM12 AND HRRR RUNS. CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MILD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CURRENTLY...RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS ARE GENERALLY SOUTH
AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH OR SO. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY AND ADD IN THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS ALONG WITH THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
AN AREA OF STEADIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR LMK. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK INTO OUR AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN EDGE OF KY.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AREA-WIDE FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. DID A QUICK
REFRESH TO THE HOURLY GRIDS. SENT UPDATES TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOWS NO SIGN OF
LETTING UP AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
RIGHT ON THE DOORSTEP. SO THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
STEADIER PRECIP FROM THE SW BUT SHOULDN/T LAST FOR LONG.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AS A
SFC LOW TRACKS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. RAINFALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO LEAD TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS. AND
DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL...ON TOP OF RAINFALL WE HAVE
RECEIVED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW STREAMS OR CREEKS COULD
NEAR BANKFULL DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT EXITS OUR AREA TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 50S THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE 40S BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR
USHERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD AND REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH PW`S AROUND 0.15
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
EACH DAY WITH COLD MORNINGS AND MILD AFTERNOONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE EACH DAY AND POSSIBLY UNDER GUIDANCE
AT NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME SOMETIME AROUND NEXT
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE PATTERN GOING INTO TUESDAY...NOT
WILLING TO BITE ON THIS SYSTEM YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH LOW CIGS AND VIS ALONG
WITH RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT
ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY. THE EASTERN TAF SITES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
REMAIN VFR OR MVFR WHILE ALONG AND BEHIND IT THEY ARE SEEING IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS. EXPECT POOR CONDITIONS TO TAKE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY EVENING WITH VIS AND CIGS QUITE LOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CIGS AND VIS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO
THE STATE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
HIT 15 KTS OR SO.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
210 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WX FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE FROM THE 12Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR. ALSO ADJUSTED T AND
TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING VIA THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AND CURRENT
OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACTIVELY CROSSING CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT SLOWING AS IT COMES EAST. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTING
A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG IT IN ADDITION TO THE BATCH
CURRENTLY DRIFTING OVER FAR EAST PARTS OF THE STATE. THE RAIN HAS
BEEN MODERATELY HEAVY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. ADDITIONAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HEADWATERS OF THE CUMBERLAND TODAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER OUR AREA AND A SFC WAVE RUNS NORTH ALONG IT PER THE LATEST
NAM12 AND HRRR RUNS. CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MILD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CURRENTLY...RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS ARE GENERALLY SOUTH
AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH OR SO. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY AND ADD IN THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS ALONG WITH THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
AN AREA OF STEADIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR LMK. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK INTO OUR AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN EDGE OF KY.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AREA-WIDE FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. DID A QUICK
REFRESH TO THE HOURLY GRIDS. SENT UPDATES TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOWS NO SIGN OF
LETTING UP AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
RIGHT ON THE DOORSTEP. SO THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
STEADIER PRECIP FROM THE SW BUT SHOULDN/T LAST FOR LONG.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AS A
SFC LOW TRACKS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. RAINFALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO LEAD TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS. AND
DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL...ON TOP OF RAINFALL WE HAVE
RECEIVED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW STREAMS OR CREEKS COULD
NEAR BANKFULL DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT EXITS OUR AREA TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 50S THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE 40S BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR
USHERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
A TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE MOIST AS THE COLUMN COOLS...SO HAVE
INCLUDED A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THERE MAY BE
A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MIX IN A FEW FLAKES. DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN TAKE HOLD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING A BIT BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST MORNING...WITH SOME MID 20S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS
POSSIBLE.
A BLOCKY PATTERN THEN SETS UP EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WHILE ANOTHER LOW SEPARATES FROM THE MAIN FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODEL AGREEMENT DETERIORATES
MORE TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THIS PATTERN GRADUALLY BREAKS
DOWN AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED
A SLOWER OUTCOME...WHICH WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
NEARBY. BELOW NORMAL READINGS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY BACK TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH LOW CIGS AND VIS ALONG
WITH RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT
ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY. THE EASTERN TAF SITES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
REMAIN VFR OR MVFR WHILE ALONG AND BEHIND IT THEY ARE SEEING IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS. EXPECT POOR CONDITIONS TO TAKE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY EVENING WITH VIS AND CIGS QUITE LOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CIGS AND VIS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO
THE STATE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
HIT 15 KTS OR SO.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1035 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACTIVELY CROSSING CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT SLOWING AS IT COMES EAST. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTING
A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG IT IN ADDITION TO THE BATCH
CURRENTLY DRIFTING OVER FAR EAST PARTS OF THE STATE. THE RAIN HAS
BEEN MODERATELY HEAVY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. ADDITIONAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HEADWATERS OF THE CUMBERLAND TODAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER OUR AREA AND A SFC WAVE RUNS NORTH ALONG IT PER THE LATEST
NAM12 AND HRRR RUNS. CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MILD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CURRENTLY...RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS ARE GENERALLY SOUTH
AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH OR SO. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY AND ADD IN THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS ALONG WITH THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
AN AREA OF STEADIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR LMK. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK INTO OUR AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN EDGE OF KY.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AREA-WIDE FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. DID A QUICK
REFRESH TO THE HOURLY GRIDS. SENT UPDATES TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOWS NO SIGN OF
LETTING UP AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
RIGHT ON THE DOORSTEP. SO THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
STEADIER PRECIP FROM THE SW BUT SHOULDN/T LAST FOR LONG.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AS A
SFC LOW TRACKS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. RAINFALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO LEAD TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS. AND
DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL...ON TOP OF RAINFALL WE HAVE
RECEIVED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW STREAMS OR CREEKS COULD
NEAR BANKFULL DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT EXITS OUR AREA TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 50S THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE 40S BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR
USHERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
A TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE MOIST AS THE COLUMN COOLS...SO HAVE
INCLUDED A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THERE MAY BE
A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MIX IN A FEW FLAKES. DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN TAKE HOLD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING A BIT BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST MORNING...WITH SOME MID 20S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS
POSSIBLE.
A BLOCKY PATTERN THEN SETS UP EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WHILE ANOTHER LOW SEPARATES FROM THE MAIN FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODEL AGREEMENT DETERIORATES
MORE TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THIS PATTERN GRADUALLY BREAKS
DOWN AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED
A SLOWER OUTCOME...WHICH WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
NEARBY. BELOW NORMAL READINGS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY BACK TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS MOVED IN. THIS SWATH OF STEADIER
RAIN SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED BEHIND IT.
DUE TO THE VARYING RAIN INTENSITY...VARIABLE CIGS AND VISIBILITY
EXIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS HAS LED TO A TRICKY FORECAST BUT
DECIDED TO HEDGE ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION ESPECIALLY SINCE LAMP
GUIDANCE KEEPS IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO
DECIDED TO INTRODUCE FOG AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE TAF SITES SINCE THE
GROUND WILL BE VERY MOIST POST-RAINFALL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN 10KT OR LESS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
757 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
.UPDATE...
NARROW STRIP OF FRONTAL FORCING ADVANCING OUT AHEAD OF THE INBOUND
UPPER WAVE EFFECTIVELY CAPITALIZING ON THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING POST-SUNSET AND THE ENSUING FAVORABLE REDUCTION IN
FREEZING LEVELS TO GENERATE A BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM
EASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OAKLAND AND
SOUTHERN GENESSEE COUNTY. UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN
LOCALIZED AREAS...BUT CONFINED TO NON-ROADWAY SURFACES GIVEN THE
STILL SUFFICIENTLY WARM AMBIENT ROAD TEMPS. RECENT RADAR TRENDS IN
SUPPORT OF LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IN ALLOWING THIS MOISTURE AXIS TO
STEADILY WEAKEN WITH TIME OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...EXISTING MID
LEVEL ASCENT REPOSITIONING TO THE SOUTH/WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LOW. WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ROUGHLY 07-
08Z SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR AS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM PIVOTS THROUGH. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION MINOR.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 646 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW FOR LIGHT SNOW IN MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AT
FNT/PTK AS A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE PIVOTS NORTH IN ADVANCE OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE DETROIT CORRIDOR
MORE FAVORABLY POSITIONED FOR RENEWED SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH 06-07Z GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER FORCING.
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL ON PAVEMENT/ROADWAYS LIMITED BY BOTH A LACK
OF GREATER DURATION OR INTENSITY...WITHIN THE BACKGROUND OF ABOVE
FREEZING ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. POCKETS OF MVFR IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MOISTURE WILL TREND TOWARD VFR AS DRIER AIR WRAPS BACK IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
FOR DTW...UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST GREATEST WINDOW FOR SNOW
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT 02Z-05Z...WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF BY 07Z.
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THESE SNOW
SHOWERS...POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME. LACK OF GREATER SNOWFALL INTENSITY/DURATION WILL
CONFINE ANY ACCUMULATION AT LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...LITTLE IF ANY
OUTSIDE OF ELEVATED/GRASSY SURFACES.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW ON THURSDAY
* HIGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 301 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ORIENTED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM A LOW WEAKLY COUPLED TO LAKE MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ENSURE RAIN IN THE LIGHTEST PRECIPITATION, BUT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THE COLUMN HAS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY. THIS BAND IS BEING DRIVEN BY SHALLOW MODERATE FGEN
THAT IS REALLY CAPITALIZING ON WEAK STATIC STABILITY THROUGH THE
LOWEST 700MB. IN FACT, SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS EVEN NOTED ON
MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS. AFTER SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH, THE PARENT UPPER
LOW HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO PULL EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE
RELEASING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BETTER FORCING RIPPLING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 21-02Z. BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW RATES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. A LOCALIZED
2" AMOUNT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM.
A SECONDARY FOCUS OF SNOW SHOWERS IS CENTERED OVER THE CHICAGO AREA
AND IS TIED TO A PV ANOMALY EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THIS CORRIDOR OF FORCING WILL PIVOT WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, AS NW FLOW FILLS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE, AN
INCREASE IN DEFORMATION FORCING COMBINED WITH A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD ALLOW LIGHT
SNOW TO HANG ON AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT
AND CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF 8 MILE.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND PROPAGATE EAST IN ADVANCE OF INCREASINGLY ENERGETIC UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER WAVE OF RIDGING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY, CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, 500MB HEIGHT WILL BE APPROACHING THE ALL-TIME
DECEMBER RECORD OF 580.5DM, THOUGH IT IS PRESENTLY MODELED TO FALL
JUST SHORT.
DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. TROUGHING TRIES TO MOVE IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER RIDGING REMAINS STRONG WHICH WILL LEAVE THE AREA
DRY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGHS RUN IN 40 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING SUPPORTING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING. WIND
DIRECTIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RESPOND OUT OF THE NORTH BY LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH STRIPS OUT. WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO
INCREASE MODESTLY ON THURSDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS PARTICULARLY OVER LAKE HURON. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON SAGINAW BAY AND THE CENTRAL LAKE HURON BASIN MAY GUST
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......MR
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...JVC/SS
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1218 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW
SUPPORTED A BAND OF MAINLY RAIN THROUGH NRN UPPER MI AS AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER PERSISTED WITH 925-850 MB WAA. WITH SFC TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST AT OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...THE
RAIN HAS RESULTED IN ICY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. THE NEXT
BATCH OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN AREA OF 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL AND SE WI.
TODAY...AFTER THE INITIAL ROUND OF PCPN...THERE MAY BE LULL BEFORE
PCPN INCREASES AGAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 14Z-18Z AS AN AREA OF STRONG 800-600
MB FGEN ADVANCES THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TEMP
PROFILE WILL FAVOR MAINLY SNOW AS COLDER AIR ELIMINATES THE WARM
LAYER. WITH QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 INCH AND RELATIVELY LOW SLR
VALUES IN THE 8/1-10/1 RANGE SNOWFALL AMONTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF
MQT-IMT.
TONIGHT...WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN...POPS WILL DIMINISH WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
DEAPRTS...EXCEPT FROM IWD-CMX-P59...EXPECT -DZ TO -FZDZ AS SFC TEMPS
DROP. WITH THE SFC TROUGH REMAINING OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...NO
ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED AS LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAIL.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST WILL REMAIN LESSTHAN A HALF
INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
EXPECT A SLOW AND STEADY WARMUP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE 500MB LOW OVER THE SE HALF
OF WI...AND AN ELONGATED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM SE WI AND S LAKE MI
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AS THE DAY ROLLS
ON THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT E...LINGERING OVER
FAR E LAKE SUPERIOR AND E LOWER MI BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE FOCUS FOR
LINGERING PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO W UPPER MI AND WEAKEN. FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE N-NNW WINDS DO NOT COME INTO PLAY UNTIL 21Z. EVEN THEN 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY COLD AT -4 TO -5C AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
TRAPPED BELOW 800MB AND DIMINISHING. THE DGZ IS WAY UP AROUND 600MB.
CAN/T RULE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW AROUND IWD...BUT OTHER
LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPECT LESS. INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL TO
AROUND 900MB BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED
ICE CRYSTALS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE W HALF...INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER TAKING
HOLD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF NOTE...WHERE THE E COULD GET
CLIPPED BY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MORE OF A MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK WELL TO OUR N /ACROSS
HUDSON BAY/...TEMPORARILY SUPPRESSING THE SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR E...FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AIR
TO SURGE INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN LOW. EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SATURDAY /WARMEST OVER THE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AT SAW...WHEN SOME
DRYING WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE SRN FLANK OF LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING INTO ONTARIO. OTHERWISE CIGS IN THE IFR TO LOW
MVFR RANGE WILL LINGER AT IWD/CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 542 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
ESE WINDS TO 30 KNOTS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS A TROUGH
WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
BELOW 20 KNOTS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH WED NIGHT. SW WINDS TO 30
KNOTS VEERING TO THE WEST AND NW ARE POSSIBLE THU AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
25 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1136 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.AVIATION...
OCCLUDED LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH DIURNAL MIXING HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO AT LEAST IMPROVE
VSBYS. THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION, INITIALLY FORCING CIGS TO RISE TO MVFR
COINCIDENT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO 270 DEGREES FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. EMERGING LIGHT S/SSE FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR PATCHY MVFR FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTER PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
PATTERN OF RAIN SHOWERS EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER ENSURING AN ALL RAIN EVENT. A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL LAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SURFACE
FRONT SWEEPS THE MOISTURE EASTWARD. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SPREAD OVER SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THE
BROAD EXPANSE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE
SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A TEXTBOOK OCCLUSION THAT WILL HAVE A TRIPLE
POINT SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER DURING THE MORNING UNDER
DEEP DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE
OCCLUSION WILL FORCE THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN LEADING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY BY ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST BOOST OF DEFORMATION THAT MAY
RESULT IN A LOCALIZED INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS...MODEL QPF IS ON THE LOW SIDE WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MUTED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND NAM 4KM.
THIS CAN BE EXPLAINED BY THE SHALLOW AND WEAK LAYER OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS THAT RESULTS FROM THE
OTHERWISE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WITHIN THE FAR NE FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. RADAR TRENDS LEADING UP TO PRESS
TIME SUPPORT A BROKEN PATTERN OF LIGHTER SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE
MOISTURE AXIS ROTATES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY RATHER THAN
A SOLID BAND WITH GREATER INTENSITY SUCH AS THAT OBSERVED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AS THE
DRY SLOT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA DURING EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE DUE TO LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITHIN THE OCCLUDED
FRONT WHICH WILL BE CARRIED EASTWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON. A LOCALIZED
BUT PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN HELP DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS
AND PRODUCE A DECREASING CLOUD TREND DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL COUNTER RADIATIONAL COOLING TENDENCY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR LOWS AROUND 30 BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ATTENTION IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STILL
SLOWLY DRIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW
THIS MATURE AND OCCLUDED SYSTEM BEGINNING TO EXIT THE PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IT WILL HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AND WILL
BEGIN FILLING BACK IN AS IT TRACKS FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI TO LAKE
ERIE...THEN NE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER ON THURSDAY. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND DIVING INTO THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE A WEAK SFC LOW. SO
INSTEAD OF DEALING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DEFORMATION ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT LOOKED 24 HOURS AGO...IT NOW APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM A WEAK ELEVATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THE
MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND DEFORMATION. THE SURGE OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL HAVE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO WORK THROUGH...RESIDUAL FROM
THE DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY...SO MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. NEXT QUESTION IS PTYPE. WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION
THE WARMER AIR WILL LINGER LONGER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW.
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY.
AT SOME POINT IN THE EVENING WE MAY START SEEING SNOW MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN AS THE COLUMN COOLS TO BELOW 0C DOWN TO ABOUT A THOUSAND
FEET. FURTHER BL COOLING WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIP CEASES. ONE THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE
ANY LAKE EFFECT CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE MI BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO
AN END. COULD GET A MESOSCALE BAND TO SET UP SOUTH OF M59 WHICH
COULD INCREASE RATES AND ACCUMULATIONS OVER THAT AREA. NOT THE
STRONGEST LAKE EFFECT SIGNAL BUT STILL THERE NONE THE LESS. IT
WILL ALSO BE A SHORT DURATION EVENT IF IT OCCURS AS RIDGING AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT IS QUICK TO WORK IN BY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE
POSSIBLE SNOW DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPACTFUL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY
WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 SO NOT EXPECTING A RAPID FREEZE OF LINGERING
PUDDLES ON ROADWAYS.
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REALIGN WITH A DOMINATE WEST
COAST TROUGH AND VERY AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONTINENTAL RIDGE WITH THE
POLAR JET LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN
WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES KEEPING TEMPS A BIT MILDER IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER. AN ELEVATED COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT SHOULD
REMAIN DISCONNECTED FROM THE SFC BY THE DOMINATE RIDGE. PRETTY QUIET
WEATHER WISE FOR THE COMING WEEK.
MARINE...
A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL WORK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO FLUCTUATE AS
FRONTS AND THE LOWS THEMSELVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY WE
HAVE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FIRST LOW. THE WINDS WILL REACH BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WHICH
WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE SHORE OF THE NORTHERN THUMB TODAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MARGINAL SETUP AS WAVES
NEAR CRITERIA LEVEL. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE HURON
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A
SECONDARY SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK
AS THIS LOW TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
705 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW
SUPPORTED A BAND OF MAINLY RAIN THROUGH NRN UPPER MI AS AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER PERSISTED WITH 925-850 MB WAA. WITH SFC TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST AT OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...THE
RAIN HAS RESULTED IN ICY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. THE NEXT
BATCH OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN AREA OF 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL AND SE WI.
TODAY...AFTER THE INITIAL ROUND OF PCPN...THERE MAY BE LULL BEFORE
PCPN INCREASES AGAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 14Z-18Z AS AN AREA OF STRONG 800-600
MB FGEN ADVANCES THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TEMP
PROFILE WILL FAVOR MAINLY SNOW AS COLDER AIR ELIMINATES THE WARM
LAYER. WITH QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 INCH AND RELATIVELY LOW SLR
VALUES IN THE 8/1-10/1 RANGE SNOWFALL AMONTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF
MQT-IMT.
TONIGHT...WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN...POPS WILL DIMINISH WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
DEAPRTS...EXCEPT FROM IWD-CMX-P59...EXPECT -DZ TO -FZDZ AS SFC TEMPS
DROP. WITH THE SFC TROUGH REMAINING OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...NO
ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED AS LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAIL.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST WILL REMAIN LESSTHAN A HALF
INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
EXPECT A SLOW AND STEADY WARMUP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE 500MB LOW OVER THE SE HALF
OF WI...AND AN ELONGATED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM SE WI AND S LAKE MI
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AS THE DAY ROLLS
ON THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT E...LINGERING OVER
FAR E LAKE SUPERIOR AND E LOWER MI BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE FOCUS FOR
LINGERING PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO W UPPER MI AND WEAKEN. FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE N-NNW WINDS DO NOT COME INTO PLAY UNTIL 21Z. EVEN THEN 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY COLD AT -4 TO -5C AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
TRAPPED BELOW 800MB AND DIMINISHING. THE DGZ IS WAY UP AROUND 600MB.
CAN/T RULE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW AROUND IWD...BUT OTHER
LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPECT LESS. INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL TO
AROUND 900MB BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED
ICE CRYSTALS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE W HALF...INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER TAKING
HOLD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF NOTE...WHERE THE E COULD GET
CLIPPED BY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MORE OF A MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK WELL TO OUR N /ACROSS
HUDSON BAY/...TEMPORARILY SUPPRESSING THE SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR E...FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AIR
TO SURGE INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN LOW. EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SATURDAY /WARMEST OVER THE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN...HANGING TO SNOW...WILL
ALSO DROP VSBY INTO THE 1-3SM RANGE BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE LATER IN THE
EVENING AT SAW...WHEN SOME DRYING WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THE SRN FLANK OF LOW PRES DEPARTING INTO ONTARIO. OTHERWISE CIGS IN
THE IFR TO LOW MVFR RANGE WILL LINGER AT IWD/CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 542 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
ESE WINDS TO 30 KNOTS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS A TROUGH
WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
BELOW 20 KNOTS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH WED NIGHT. SW WINDS TO 30
KNOTS VEERING TO THE WEST AND NW ARE POSSIBLE THU AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
25 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
645 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO START THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN LIFR CEILING AND IFR VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG
OVER SE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SCOUR
OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING VFR THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. SHALLOW
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT COULD
BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTION.
FOR DTW...
LIFR CEILING AND IFR VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG WILL LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. A CLEARING TREND DURING THE EVENING WILL BRING VFR UNDER
PARTIAL HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE. DTW HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR FOG
AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY DUE TO LIGHT SOUTH/SE WIND FROM LAKE ERIE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE/POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE/POTENTIAL FOR CEILING BELOW 200 FT DURING THE
MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTER PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
PATTERN OF RAIN SHOWERS EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER ENSURING AN ALL RAIN EVENT. A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL LAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SURFACE
FRONT SWEEPS THE MOISTURE EASTWARD. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SPREAD OVER SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THE
BROAD EXPANSE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE
SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A TEXTBOOK OCCLUSION THAT WILL HAVE A TRIPLE
POINT SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER DURING THE MORNING UNDER
DEEP DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE
OCCLUSION WILL FORCE THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN LEADING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY BY ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST BOOST OF DEFORMATION THAT MAY
RESULT IN A LOCALIZED INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS...MODEL QPF IS ON THE LOW SIDE WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MUTED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND NAM 4KM.
THIS CAN BE EXPLAINED BY THE SHALLOW AND WEAK LAYER OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS THAT RESULTS FROM THE
OTHERWISE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WITHIN THE FAR NE FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. RADAR TRENDS LEADING UP TO PRESS
TIME SUPPORT A BROKEN PATTERN OF LIGHTER SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE
MOISTURE AXIS ROTATES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY RATHER THAN
A SOLID BAND WITH GREATER INTENSITY SUCH AS THAT OBSERVED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AS THE
DRY SLOT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA DURING EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE DUE TO LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITHIN THE OCCLUDED
FRONT WHICH WILL BE CARRIED EASTWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON. A LOCALIZED
BUT PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN HELP DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS
AND PRODUCE A DECREASING CLOUD TREND DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL COUNTER RADIATIONAL COOLING TENDENCY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR LOWS AROUND 30 BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ATTENTION IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STILL
SLOWLY DRIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW
THIS MATURE AND OCCLUDED SYSTEM BEGINNING TO EXIT THE PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IT WILL HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AND WILL
BEGIN FILLING BACK IN AS IT TRACKS FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI TO LAKE
ERIE...THEN NE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER ON THURSDAY. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND DIVING INTO THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE A WEAK SFC LOW. SO
INSTEAD OF DEALING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DEFORMATION ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT LOOKED 24 HOURS AGO...IT NOW APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM A WEAK ELEVATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THE
MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND DEFORMATION. THE SURGE OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL HAVE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO WORK THROUGH...RESIDUAL FROM
THE DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY...SO MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. NEXT QUESTION IS PTYPE. WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION
THE WARMER AIR WILL LINGER LONGER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW.
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY.
AT SOME POINT IN THE EVENING WE MAY START SEEING SNOW MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN AS THE COLUMN COOLS TO BELOW 0C DOWN TO ABOUT A THOUSAND
FEET. FURTHER BL COOLING WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIP CEASES. ONE THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE
ANY LAKE EFFECT CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE MI BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO
AN END. COULD GET A MESOSCALE BAND TO SET UP SOUTH OF M59 WHICH
COULD INCREASE RATES AND ACCUMULATIONS OVER THAT AREA. NOT THE
STRONGEST LAKE EFFECT SIGNAL BUT STILL THERE NONE THE LESS. IT
WILL ALSO BE A SHORT DURATION EVENT IF IT OCCURS AS RIDGING AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT IS QUICK TO WORK IN BY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE
POSSIBLE SNOW DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPACTFUL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY
WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 SO NOT EXPECTING A RAPID FREEZE OF LINGERING
PUDDLES ON ROADWAYS.
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REALIGN WITH A DOMINATE WEST
COAST TROUGH AND VERY AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONTINENTAL RIDGE WITH THE
POLAR JET LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN
WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES KEEPING TEMPS A BIT MILDER IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER. AN ELEVATED COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT SHOULD
REMAIN DISCONNECTED FROM THE SFC BY THE DOMINATE RIDGE. PRETTY QUIET
WEATHER WISE FOR THE COMING WEEK.
MARINE...
A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL WORK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO FLUCTUATE AS
FRONTS AND THE LOWS THEMSELVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY WE
HAVE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FIRST LOW. THE WINDS WILL REACH BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WHICH
WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE SHORE OF THE NORTHERN THUMB TODAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MARGINAL SETUP AS WAVES
NEAR CRITERIA LEVEL. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE HURON
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A
SECONDARY SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK
AS THIS LOW TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
542 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW
SUPPORTED A BAND OF MAINLY RAIN THROUGH NRN UPPER MI AS AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER PERSISTED WITH 925-850 MB WAA. WITH SFC TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST AT OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...THE
RAIN HAS RESULTED IN ICY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. THE NEXT
BATCH OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN AREA OF 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL AND SE WI.
TODAY...AFTER THE INITIAL ROUND OF PCPN...THERE MAY BE LULL BEFORE
PCPN INCREASES AGAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 14Z-18Z AS AN AREA OF STRONG 800-600
MB FGEN ADVANCES THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TEMP
PROFILE WILL FAVOR MAINLY SNOW AS COLDER AIR ELIMINATES THE WARM
LAYER. WITH QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 INCH AND RELATIVELY LOW SLR
VALUES IN THE 8/1-10/1 RANGE SNOWFALL AMONTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF
MQT-IMT.
TONIGHT...WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN...POPS WILL DIMINISH WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
DEAPRTS...EXCEPT FROM IWD-CMX-P59...EXPECT -DZ TO -FZDZ AS SFC TEMPS
DROP. WITH THE SFC TROUGH REMAINING OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...NO
ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED AS LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAIL.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST WILL REMAIN LESSTHAN A HALF
INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
EXPECT A SLOW AND STEADY WARMUP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE 500MB LOW OVER THE SE HALF
OF WI...AND AN ELONGATED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM SE WI AND S LAKE MI
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AS THE DAY ROLLS
ON THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT E...LINGERING OVER
FAR E LAKE SUPERIOR AND E LOWER MI BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE FOCUS FOR
LINGERING PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO W UPPER MI AND WEAKEN. FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE N-NNW WINDS DO NOT COME INTO PLAY UNTIL 21Z. EVEN THEN 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY COLD AT -4 TO -5C AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
TRAPPED BELOW 800MB AND DIMINISHING. THE DGZ IS WAY UP AROUND 600MB.
CAN/T RULE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW AROUND IWD...BUT OTHER
LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPECT LESS. INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL TO
AROUND 900MB BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED
ICE CRYSTALS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE W HALF...INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER TAKING
HOLD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF NOTE...WHERE THE E COULD GET
CLIPPED BY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MORE OF A MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK WELL TO OUR N /ACROSS
HUDSON BAY/...TEMPORARILY SUPPRESSING THE SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR E...FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AIR
TO SURGE INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN LOW. EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SATURDAY /WARMEST OVER THE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB IS PROVING TO BE QUITE
RESILIENT. SO EVEN THOUGH SOME PATCHY -RA...AND PSBLY SOME
-FZRA...WL ARRIVE EARLY THIS MRNG AS LO PRES TO THE SW DRAWS CLOSER
WITH DEEPER MSTR ALOFT...SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOWER CIGS
AND VSBYS FM PREVIOUS FCST. BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
THE SITES BY 12Z. AS FALLING PCPN UNDER SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING
SATURATES THE LLVLS AND THE PTYPE CHANGES PRIMARILY TO SN...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR ON TUE MRNG...EARLIEST AT IWD WHERE
THE CHANGE TO SN WL HAPPEN FASTER. IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS
WL THEN PREVAIL THRU TUE EVNG WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR. BEST CHC FOR
SOME IMPROVEMENT WL BE LATER IN THE EVNG AT SAW...WHEN SOME DRYING
WL ARRIVE FM THE SW ON THE SRN FLANK OF LO PRES DEPARTING INTO
ONTARIO.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 542 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
ESE WINDS TO 30 KNOTS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS A TROUGH
WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
BELOW 20 KNOTS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH WED NIGHT. SW WINDS TO 30
KNOTS VEERING TO THE WEST AND NW ARE POSSIBLE THU AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
25 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
525 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW
SUPPORTED A BAND OF MAINLY RAIN THROUGH NRN UPPER MI AS AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER PERSISTED WITH 925-850 MB WAA. WITH SFC TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST AT OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...THE
RAIN HAS RESULTED IN ICY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. THE NEXT
BATCH OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN AREA OF 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL AND SE WI.
TODAY...AFTER THE INITIAL ROUND OF PCPN...THERE MAY BE LULL BEFORE
PCPN INCREASES AGAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 14Z-18Z AS AN AREA OF STRONG 800-600
MB FGEN ADVANCES THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TEMP
PROFILE WILL FAVOR MAINLY SNOW AS COLDER AIR ELIMINATES THE WARM
LAYER. WITH QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 INCH AND RELATIVELY LOW SLR
VALUES IN THE 8/1-10/1 RANGE SNOWFALL AMONTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF
MQT-IMT.
TONIGHT...WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN...POPS WILL DIMINISH WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
DEAPRTS...EXCEPT FROM IWD-CMX-P59...EXPECT -DZ TO -FZDZ AS SFC TEMPS
DROP. WITH THE SFC TROUGH REMAINING OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...NO
ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED AS LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAIL.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST WILL REMAIN LESSTHAN A HALF
INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
EXPECT A SLOW AND STEADY WARMUP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE 500MB LOW OVER THE SE HALF
OF WI...AND AN ELONGATED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM SE WI AND S LAKE MI
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AS THE DAY ROLLS
ON THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT E...LINGERING OVER
FAR E LAKE SUPERIOR AND E LOWER MI BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE FOCUS FOR
LINGERING PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO W UPPER MI AND WEAKEN. FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE N-NNW WINDS DO NOT COME INTO PLAY UNTIL 21Z. EVEN THEN 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY COLD AT -4 TO -5C AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
TRAPPED BELOW 800MB AND DIMINISHING. THE DGZ IS WAY UP AROUND 600MB.
CAN/T RULE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW AROUND IWD...BUT OTHER
LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPECT LESS. INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL TO
AROUND 900MB BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED
ICE CRYSTALS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE W HALF...INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER TAKING
HOLD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF NOTE...WHERE THE E COULD GET
CLIPPED BY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MORE OF A MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK WELL TO OUR N /ACROSS
HUDSON BAY/...TEMPORARILY SUPPRESSING THE SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR E...FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AIR
TO SURGE INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN LOW. EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SATURDAY /WARMEST OVER THE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB IS PROVING TO BE QUITE
RESILIENT. SO EVEN THOUGH SOME PATCHY -RA...AND PSBLY SOME
-FZRA...WL ARRIVE EARLY THIS MRNG AS LO PRES TO THE SW DRAWS CLOSER
WITH DEEPER MSTR ALOFT...SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOWER CIGS
AND VSBYS FM PREVIOUS FCST. BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
THE SITES BY 12Z. AS FALLING PCPN UNDER SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING
SATURATES THE LLVLS AND THE PTYPE CHANGES PRIMARILY TO SN...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR ON TUE MRNG...EARLIEST AT IWD WHERE
THE CHANGE TO SN WL HAPPEN FASTER. IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS
WL THEN PREVAIL THRU TUE EVNG WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR. BEST CHC FOR
SOME IMPROVEMENT WL BE LATER IN THE EVNG AT SAW...WHEN SOME DRYING
WL ARRIVE FM THE SW ON THE SRN FLANK OF LO PRES DEPARTING INTO
ONTARIO.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015
NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THEY DO GET
UP TO 30 KNOTS A FEW TIMES. THE FIRST PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WOULD
BE TUESDAY AS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NEXT PERIOD FOR STRONGER WINDS UP TO 30
KNOTS WOULD BE FOR THU AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS OVER HUDSON BAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
348 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTER PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
PATTERN OF RAIN SHOWERS EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER ENSURING AN ALL RAIN EVENT. A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL LAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SURFACE
FRONT SWEEPS THE MOISTURE EASTWARD. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SPREAD OVER SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THE
BROAD EXPANSE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE
SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A TEXTBOOK OCCLUSION THAT WILL HAVE A TRIPLE
POINT SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER DURING THE MORNING UNDER
DEEP DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE
OCCLUSION WILL FORCE THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN LEADING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY BY ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST BOOST OF DEFORMATION THAT MAY
RESULT IN A LOCALIZED INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS...MODEL QPF IS ON THE LOW SIDE WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MUTED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND NAM 4KM.
THIS CAN BE EXPLAINED BY THE SHALLOW AND WEAK LAYER OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS THAT RESULTS FROM THE
OTHERWISE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WITHIN THE FAR NE FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. RADAR TRENDS LEADING UP TO PRESS
TIME SUPPORT A BROKEN PATTERN OF LIGHTER SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE
MOISTURE AXIS ROTATES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY RATHER THAN
A SOLID BAND WITH GREATER INTENSITY SUCH AS THAT OBSERVED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AS THE
DRY SLOT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA DURING EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE DUE TO LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITHIN THE OCCLUDED
FRONT WHICH WILL BE CARRIED EASTWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON. A LOCALIZED
BUT PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN HELP DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS
AND PRODUCE A DECREASING CLOUD TREND DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL COUNTER RADIATIONAL COOLING TENDENCY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR LOWS AROUND 30 BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ATTENTION IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STILL
SLOWLY DRIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW
THIS MATURE AND OCCLUDED SYSTEM BEGINNING TO EXIT THE PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IT WILL HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AND WILL
BEGIN FILLING BACK IN AS IT TRACKS FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI TO LAKE
ERIE...THEN NE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER ON THURSDAY. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND DIVING INTO THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE A WEAK SFC LOW. SO
INSTEAD OF DEALING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DEFORMATION ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT LOOKED 24 HOURS AGO...IT NOW APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM A WEAK ELEVATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THE
MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND DEFORMATION. THE SURGE OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL HAVE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO WORK THROUGH...RESIDUAL FROM
THE DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY...SO MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. NEXT QUESTION IS PTYPE. WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION
THE WARMER AIR WILL LINGER LONGER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW.
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY.
AT SOME POINT IN THE EVENING WE MAY START SEEING SNOW MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN AS THE COLUMN COOLS TO BELOW 0C DOWN TO ABOUT A THOUSAND
FEET. FURTHER BL COOLING WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIP CEASES. ONE THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE
ANY LAKE EFFECT CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE MI BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO
AN END. COULD GET A MESOSCALE BAND TO SET UP SOUTH OF M59 WHICH
COULD INCREASE RATES AND ACCUMULATIONS OVER THAT AREA. NOT THE
STRONGEST LAKE EFFECT SIGNAL BUT STILL THERE NONE THE LESS. IT
WILL ALSO BE A SHORT DURATION EVENT IF IT OCCURS AS RIDGING AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT IS QUICK TO WORK IN BY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE
POSSIBLE SNOW DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPACTFUL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY
WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 SO NOT EXPECTING A RAPID FREEZE OF LINGERING
PUDDLES ON ROADWAYS.
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REALIGN WITH A DOMINATE WEST
COAST TROUGH AND VERY AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONTINENTAL RIDGE WITH THE
POLAR JET LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN
WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES KEEPING TEMPS A BIT MILDER IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER. AN ELEVATED COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT SHOULD
REMAIN DISCONNECTED FROM THE SFC BY THE DOMINATE RIDGE. PRETTY QUIET
WEATHER WISE FOR THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL WORK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO FLUCTUATE AS
FRONTS AND THE LOWS THEMSELVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY WE
HAVE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FIRST LOW. THE WINDS WILL REACH BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WHICH
WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE SHORE OF THE NORTHERN THUMB TODAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MARGINAL SETUP AS WAVES
NEAR CRITERIA LEVEL. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE HURON
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A
SECONDARY SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK
AS THIS LOW TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1152 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015
MVFR CIGS WILL BE WORKING INTO SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH -SHRAS TRAILING THIS LEADING EDGE OF STRATUS BY 2
OR 3 HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THRU
MIDDAY TUESDAY BEFORE DRIER SW FLOW BRINGS CIGS BACK TO MVFR WITH
SKIES THEN SCATTERING OUT LATE IN THE FORECAST.
FOR DTW...
MVFR CIGS WILL TREND TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS -SHRAS EXPAND FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST AND REACH TERMINAL BY 09Z OR SO. ON/OFF -SHRAS WILL
THEN PERSIST UNTIL FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS AREA BY AROUND 16Z WITH
SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOMING SCATTERED IN DRYING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY...LOWER THEREAFTER.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
310 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PERSISTENT
BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE CHANGING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY EWD ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A BROADENING SFC LOW EXPANDS EAST INTO
WISCONSIN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS AN AREA OF WEAK MID-
LEVEL F-GEN ACROSS NE MN AIDING IN THE 700-500MB LIFT WHICH HAS
BEEN THE PRIMARY AREA OF FORCING THAT HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE HAS THIS LIFTING
LAYER HANGING AROUND THE ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD
TONIGHT AS THE BAND PIVOTS AND ROTATES EWD. MAY SEE THE SRN EDGE
OF THIS BAND BRUSH THE TWIN PORTS THIS EVENING...AND TRIGGER A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO...WILL
KEEP SRN ST. LOUIS AND CARLTON COUNTY...INCLUDING DULUTH...IN THE
ADVISORY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. A LAYER OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH AND ALLOW
THE COLUMN TO LOSE ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT...BUT KEEP THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS SETUP WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NEAR-SFC TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. ROADS AND OTHER SURFACES WILL LIKELY BE WET OR SNOW
COVERED...WHICH WILL INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SO DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NW WI AND AREAS OF E-CENTRAL MN.
THE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT DZ/FZDZ WILL SWEEP EWD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WED MORNING AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW AND DRIZZLE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND OVER N-CENTRAL WI WED
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER IRON COUNTY IN WISCONSIN AS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SET
IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AND BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
WESTERN MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND THUS CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY THAT
MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FOR THE
SEASON...AVERAGING SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
PERIODS OF VLIFR CONDITIONS AT DULUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
LOCATIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT INL AT 08Z. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT DLH AND HYR. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 31 35 20 36 / 60 20 0 0
INL 23 30 19 36 / 40 0 0 0
BRD 29 35 16 37 / 70 0 0 0
HYR 25 35 18 35 / 20 20 10 0
ASX 28 37 22 38 / 30 30 10 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-
018>021-025-026-035-037.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
557 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS POSITIONED IN
SOUTHWEST MN NEAR MARSHALL. THE DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM WAS BACK ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EXTENDING
TOWARD NORTHWESTER MN. THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH THE
WINTER STORM HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM MARSHALL...THROUGH ST. CLOUD TOWARD
DULUTH...THE BAND WILL EVENTUALLY SWING EAST PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WORK ITS WAY
EAST TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR 1-2" ACCUMULATIONS FROM THAT BAND
WILL BE IN THE GREATER ALEXANDRIA AREA. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ON AND OFF DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY AS THE
MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES WORKING IN AND SHUTS OFF AND ABILITY
FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN
CONSISTENT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING ISSUES TODAY...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY IN WEST CENTRAL MN.
AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MN...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE MARGINAL IN THE 10-
20MPH RANGE ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW BAND IN THE
ADVISORY AREA MAY PRODUCE INTERMITTENT MODERATE SNOW RATES AND WITH
THE MARGINAL WIND COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AND THAT BAND WORK ACROSS EASTERN MN AS IT WEAKENED
TONIGHT. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON
WEDNESDAY... THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MILD AND DRY. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHIFTING THE JET STREAM NORTH...
AND KEEPING WHAT COLD AIR THERE IS TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. WITH FLOW MAINLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD... MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR AREA IS MINIMAL
WITH THINGS BEING SCOURED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WEST.
AS A RESULT... NO PCPN IS MENTIONED AFTER WEDNESDAY. A QUICK LOOK
AT THE CFS SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST THE THIRD WEEK OF THE MONTH... WITH EVEN THE COOLEST
MEMBERS OF THE CFS ENSEMBLE ONLY MANAGING TO COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD AND MOVING DIRECTLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA...WE WILL CONTEND WITH IFR AND SOME LIFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND
SNOW WORKING INTO WESTERN MN TONIGHT AND PROGRESSING EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY FOR MSP/RNH/EAU...BUT WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC BASED
ON THE LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS THE AREA.
KMSP...SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN THE CIGS IN FAR SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT GENERALLY EXPECT IFR AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PERIODICALLY
BOUNCING TO MVFR. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING NOT EXPECTING ANY
ICING PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW AROUND 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ041>045-047>050-054>057-064.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
353 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS POSITIONED IN
SOUTHWEST MN NEAR MARHASLL. THE DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM WAS BACK ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EXTENDING TOWARD
NORTHWESTER MN. THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH THE WINTER STORM
HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
FROM MARSHALL...THROUGH ST. CLOUD TOWARD DULUTH...THE BAND WILL
EVENTUALLY SWING EAST PEODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR 1-2" ACCUMULATIONS FROM THAT BAND WILL BE IN THE GREATER
ALEXANDRIA AREA. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ON
AND OFF DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY AS THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES
WORKING IN AND SHUTS OFF AND ABILITY FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.
TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN CONSISTENT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
FREEZING ISSUES TODAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN WEST CENTRAL MN.
AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MN...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE MARGINAL IN THE 10-
20MPH RANGE ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW BAND IN THE
ADVISORY AREA MAY PRODUCE INTERMITTENT MODERATE SNOW RATES AND WITH
THE MAGINAL WIND COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND
THAT BAND WORK ACROSS EASTERN MN AS IT WEAKEND TONIGHT. MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON
WEDNESDAY... THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MILD AND DRY. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHIFTING THE JET STREAM NORTH...
AND KEEPING WHAT COLD AIR THERE IS TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. WITH FLOW MAINLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD... MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR AREA IS MINIMAL
WITH THINGS BEING SCOURED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WEST.
AS A RESULT... NO PCPN IS MENTIONED AFTER WEDNESDAY. A QUICK LOOK
AT THE CFS SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST THE THIRD WEEK OF THE MONTH... WITH EVEN THE COOLEST
MEMBERS OF THE CFS ENSEMBLE ONLY MANAGING TO COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW MOVING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN MN EXTENIND
JUST IN TO WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS BAND WILL WORK THROUGH OVER THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND THE CONCERN AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH BECOMES
THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE. IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE HRRR IS INDICATING THAT THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT THAT WILL PUSH IN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING COULD SCOUR
SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOW CEILINGS TO LIFT OR
TEMPORARILY SCATTER. INDICATED SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THAT TIME FOR
SOME OF THE SITES...AND WILL MONITOR UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AS THE
DRY SLOT APPROACHES.
KMSP...THIS SECOND BAND OF SNOW SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY DONE BY 8-9Z
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGE
FROM THE MAIN DISCUSSION.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW AROUND 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ041>045-047>050-054>057-064.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1210 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON ITS WAY TO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS STILL SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY OFF
OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...ALLOWING
FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND BROAD SCALE LIFT. A
FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF MOD/HVY SNOW THIS MORNING PRODUCED 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR ALL THE WAY FROM THE
MN/IA BORDER TO ST PAUL. AFTER A LULL...THE FIRST MAIN SLUG OF
MOISTURE PRESSED NWD FROM IA INTO MN AND IS CURRENTLY IN A LARGE
SWATH OVER THE WFO MPX CWFA ALONG AND S OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. HAVE
SEEN REPORTS OF VSBY DOWN TO 1/4SM-1/2SM IN SWRN MN WITH SITES
CLOSER TO I-35 IN THE 1SM-2SM RANGE ONCE THE SNOW COMMENCED. IN
SOME SPOTS...THE PRECIP CAME AS A MIXTURE OF -DZ/-IP AT THE START
BUT ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND HEAVIER RATES TOOK HOLD...THE
PRECIP CHANGED OVER TO -SN AND THAT IS HOW THE REST OF THE EVENT
LOOKS TO UNFOLD. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST
SWATH OF MOISTURE SHIFTING AWAY FROM SWRN MN AND ESSENTIALLY
LINING UP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THRU CENTRAL AND W-CENTRAL MN.
THIS BATCH DOES CONTAIN SOME HEAVIER BOUTS OF -SN... AND THIS WILL
LAST THRU LATE EVENING. THEN THERE LOOKS TO BE A SEVERAL-HOUR-LONG
BREAK IN THE PRECIP PER NMM/ARW/HRRR/HOPWRF PROGS AND HAVE TRIED
DEPICT AS SUCH IN THE GRIDS BY DROPPING POPS TO THE CHC RANGE FOR
CENTRAL- ERN PARTS OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG. THE NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE GATHERING IMPETUS OVER ERN
NEBRASKA/WRN IOWA AND THIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE AREA DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HRS...MAKING FOR ANOTHER DIFFICULT COMMUTE TUE MRNG.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
QPF OVERNIGHT THRU TUE IS STILL IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH RANGE. SNOW
RATIOS WILL CLIMB SLOWLY TONIGHT INTO TMRW... CLOSER TO 12 OR 13
TO 1...MAKING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TNGT THRU TMRW VERY LIKELY. THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL STILL BE FOCUSED IN SWRN MN...BUT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES IN WRN WI TO 5-9
INCHES IN WRN MN...AND THESE AMOUNTS ARE THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE EVENT. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT HEADLINES
ALONE AS THEY ARE DELINEATED. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURG THE
DAY TMRW...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF DRIER BLYR AIR BEING
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A P-TYPE CHANGE TO
-FZRA/-FZDZ AT TIMES TMRW EVE AND TMRW NGT BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LARGELY COME TO AN END BY DAYBREAK WED
MRNG. THE CONCERNS ARE STILL THERE THAT THIS WILL BE A HEAVY WET
SNOW...MAKING FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND DIFFICULT SNOW
REMOVAL. OWING TO THOSE CONCERNS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH FROM TDA INTO TNGT AND THRU TMRW. HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S WILL ONLY DROP TO THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S TNGT
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 30S ON TUE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN OUR
EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
ON WEDNESDAY IN OUR WESTERN AREAS...AS FRESH SNOW COVER FROM THE
STORM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN EXPECTED. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
SLIGHTLY MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. A WEAK FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW MOVING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN MN EXTENIND
JUST IN TO WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS BAND WILL WORK THROUGH OVER THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND THE CONCERN AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH BECOMES
THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE. IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE HRRR IS INDICATING THAT THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT THAT WILL PUSH IN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING COULD SCOUR
SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOW CEILINGS TO LIFT OR
TEMPORARILY SCATTER. INDICATED SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THAT TIME FOR
SOME OF THE SITES...AND WILL MONITOR UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AS THE
DRY SLOT APPROACHES.
KMSP...THIS SECOND BAND OF SNOW SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY DONE BY 8-9Z
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGE
FROM THE MAIN DISCUSSION.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW AROUND 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
WIZ014>016-023>028.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ047-
048-054>058-064>067-073>077-082>085-091>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
MNZ041>045-049>053-059>063-068>070-078.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...ADL
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
537 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WX IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
CONTS TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
DEVELOP EAST TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR WINDS WE ARE
EXPECTING SOME PRETTY CHILLY LOWS OVER THE SNOW COVER AREAS TO
THE NORTH. ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW COVER WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING TODAY WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. THE RAP INDICATES THIS...AND THE SREF HAS SOME FAIRLY HIGH
PROBS OF LOWER VISBY OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS PATTERN
MAY AGAIN REPEAT ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND MELTING ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
THU/FRI WITH WARMER HIGHS.
A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ON FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOV ACROSS THE CWA ON LATE SAT. WE MAY SEE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE RETURN TO SEE STRATUS
DEVELOP...STARTING OVER THE WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE NIGHT
EXPANDING EWD TOWARD SAT MRNG. THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER ISN`T
OVERLY DEEP...BUT WE WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE DZ DVLP
WITHIN THIS BAND IF MOISTURE PROFILES END UP SIMILAR TO THE NAM.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH THE CWA ON SAT
EVNG/NIGHT...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WE WILL CONT TO MENTION A SCHC CHC
OF RA/SN ON SAT NIGHT IN THE SOUTH...BUT LATEST TRENDS INDICATE
THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED IN COMING FORECASTS. THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
316 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
H5 UA ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER
FAR SERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE HAS MIGRATED FROM SERN WYOMING
TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS OF MIDDAY...WV
IMAGERY HAS THIS FEATURE ROUGHLY OVER NWRN IA. HT FALLS DOWNSTREAM
OF THIS FEATURE WERE MOST PRONOUNCED AT THE TWIN CITIES AND THE QUAD
CITIES WITH HT FALLS OF 220 AND 190 METERS RESPECTIVELY...SO THIS
FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS A BROAD SHIELD OF
ALTO STRATUS AND OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD ENHANCEMENT NOTED FROM ROUGHLY VALENTINE TO NEAR
BROKEN BOW. UNDERNEATH THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR FROM
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WAS OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT GIVEN THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS AREA TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST...UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES...RANGED FROM 27 AT AINSWORTH AND VALENTINE...TO 33 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE
END TIMING OF THE SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO TEMPERATURES...MORE SPECIFICALLY HOW
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH A DENSE FRESH SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON...DRAGGING ONE LAST SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE HELPED TO FOCUS A
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS...FROM
VALENTINE SOUTH TOWARD NORTH PLATTE. THE NAM MODEL...AND THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR DID A FINE JOB DEPICTING THIS ENHANCED SNOWBAND
BOTH IN TERMS OF INTENSITY AND LOCATION...THUS THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION. BOTH THE NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOW
THE BAND ERODING IN A COUPLE HOURS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL WEAKER BAND
BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTH INTO CUSTER
COUNTY LATE AFTERNOON. REAL TIME OBSERVING STATIONS AND THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE WEAKENING TREND...YIELDING GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE CURRENT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING...THOUGH
WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. WE WOULD
RATHER SEE HOW THE ADDITIONAL BAND PLAYS OUT BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL
CALL ON WHETHER TO CUT THE ADVISORY EARLY. WHERE THE PRESENT HEAVY
BAND SET UP...WE COULD STILL SEE SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER
TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS AN HALF INCH PER HOUR...BUT AGAIN THAT BAND
IS SLOWLY FALLING APART.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE GOING TO BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND HOW LONG THE NORTHWEST WINDS STAY UP. AT
THIS POINT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CLEARING A FEW HOURS BEFORE
DAWN...AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK...LOW TO MID TEENS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. NOTE GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE
FORECASTING. RISING HEIGHTS WILL ACCOMPANY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SNOWPACK. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MID 30S
OVER THE SNOW AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE TEMPERATURES AND THE THREAT FOR
FOG...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...EVEN
WITH EXPECTED MELTING ON WEDNESDAY...MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SHOULD REMAIN SNOW COVERED. WITH EXPECTED
SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FELT GUIDANCE
WAS WAY OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY THE MAV...AND UNDERCUT BOTH THE MAV
AND MET TEMPS FOR LOWS WEDS NIGHT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE LIGHT
WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS...WENT WITH LOWS EVEN COLDER IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME SINGLE DIGITS WERE INSERTED IN THE GRIDS.
FOR THURSDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT
MIXING. WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE LOWER 40S. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED TO MELT
OFF WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...I DID GO AHEAD AND
LIMIT LOWS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE WESTERN CWA. FURTHER EAST...THE MODELS BEGIN TO INCREASE A
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH TWO
DAYS OF MELTING SNOW...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY MOIST AND
WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE THREAT FOR FOG FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM
AND SREF ARE INDICATIVE OF A FOG THREAT FRIDAY AM...WHILE THE GFS IS
NOT. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FOG MENTION FOR NOW AS THIS IS WELL
INTO THE MID RANGE PERIOD AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE GFS/ECMWF COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SREF/NAM CAMP. ALSO...THERE IS SOME
DOUBT AS TO WINDS FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE NAM HAS SOME DECENT H925
WINDS IN AREAS WHERE THE BL IS NEARLY SATURATED. IF THE WINDS COME
TO FRUITION...THE FOG THREAT MAY BE DIMINISHED. STILL TOO MANY
DOUBTS YET TO INTRODUCE IT IN THE FORECAST.
BEYOND FRIDAY...A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AS ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS ABSENT FROM THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SATURDAY
AS A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL DROP HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SECONDARY DRY TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
LOW THAN AVERAGE CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z
AVIATION FORECAST AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY EJECTS TO THE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA. WRAP-AROUND BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SOUTH THROUGH THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS...AND AT TIMES
ACROSS THE LBF TERMINAL. THE CURRENT SHORT TERM MODELS REVEAL A
GRADUAL END TO THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS DRY AIR IS
PULLED SOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THUS WE ANTICIPATE PERIODIC
REDUCTIONS IN BOTH VISIBILITY AND CEILING AT
KLBF...KVTN...KTIF...KANW...KBBW AND POSSIBLY KONL CONTINUING
INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT WEAKEN BEFORE DAWN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ005>010-026>029-038-094.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
335 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER SIOUX FALLS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UP THE EAST COAST. RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
MODELS HAVE EXPANDED THE WRAP AROUND FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER
SIOUX FALLS THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN BETWEEN
NOW AND 12Z. SYSTEM FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
ON THE NATIONAL RADAR MAP. STRONGER WINDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
MAY MOVE SOME SNOW AROUND BUT DON`T BELIEVE THAT IT WILL CAUSE
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. 7 INCH SNOWFALL REPORTS ALONG THE LINE
THAT EXTENDED FROM GRANT TO MULLEN TO VALENTINE YESTERDAY
MORNING. SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA BUT A HOLE NOW DEVELOPING FROM PINE RIDGE TO VALENTINE.
HAVE KEPT LIGHT SNOW GOING AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH
THE DAY. NOT SURE ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH. WILL LET
THE ADVISORY GO FOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 AM CST AND CONTINUE WITH
THE WESTERLY ONE THROUGH NOON. POPS MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND OVER NIGHT. HAVE PRECIP
ENDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AROUND ONEILL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
TUESDAY. HIGHS TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 MOST
AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING OVER THE SOUTH AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED AT LEAST A CATEGORY BASED ON
LOCAL STUDY. HAVE PUSHED THE ENVELOPE WITH NEIGHBORS THIS MORNING
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. FRESH SNOW WITH CLEARING SKIES GOOD FOR 7
TO 10F BELOW GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WEDNESDAY A TROUGH WILL COME ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW WHILE THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THIS FAVORS RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE EFFECTS
OF THE SNOW PACK...ESPECIALLY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
PLAINS AND WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...NO HELP TO MIX WARM
AIR ALOFT TO THE GROUND. HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. EXPECTING MOST OF THE
AREA TO STILL SEE SNOW ON THE GROUND FOR THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UNDER CUT GUIDANCE AND PUSH HIGHS TO AROUND 40 TO THE
MID 40S. BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE SNOW FREE AREAS...AND THE
RANGE FOR TEMPERATURES COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES. ONCE THE FINAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE IN WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA FOR WHERE HIGHS
WILL BE WARMEST.
BY THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY TO THE 4
CORNERS...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
STILL SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE EC IS FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS SOME QPF TO THE NEB/KS
BORDER...HOWEVER GFS IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE KEEPS POPS ON THE LOW SIDE SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY. WITH
THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD...TEMPS TO TREND TO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
MVFR/LOCAL LIFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA
HIGHWAY 2 TUESDAY AFTN AS SHOWN BY THE RAP AND NAM MODELS.
MVFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS MAY CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
281 TUESDAY EVENING. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR NEZ005>010-023>029-035>038-059.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED REMAINING PARTS OF WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.
ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT THESE AREAS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW HAS FALLEN OFF MARKEDLY WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO REMAIN WELL UNDER AN INCH. PLUS THERE
IS REALLY NOT MUCH WIND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND...AND TEMPERATURES
ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING MAKING FOR A WET SNOW THAT IS HARD TO BLOW
AROUND ANYWAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
HAVE ALLOWED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM...AND
MAINTAINED WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE
TO CANCEL THAT ONE EARLY IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE. APPEARS
LAST GASP OF POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS ROTATING THROUGH
THE AREA AT EARLY EVENING...WHICH CONFIRMS THE CONSENSUS OF
SHORT-TERM HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES IN OUR NRN COUNTIES WILL BE THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM.
500 MB CHART FROM 12Z SHOWED MAIN LOW BACK OVER WY WITH HEIGHT FALLS
ESTIMATED AT UP TO 130 METERS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS CENTERED OVER
THE SERN CO/SWRN KS BORDER AREA. IT WAS JUST A BIT LESS AT KDDC
(120 METERS). VORT MAX WAS OVER NERN CO AT THAT TIME...BUT WATER
VAPOR STLT IMAGERY AND RECENT RUC MODEL INITILIZATIONS SHOW MAIN
LOW NOW IN WRN NE. STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE
LOW. MAIN BAND OF PCPN MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING ABOUT AS
EXPECTED...AND THE PCPN TYPE WAS A MIX. NEXT LOBE OF ENERGY HAD
ROTATED INTO ERN NE FROM THE WEST AND THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WRAP
UP TOWARD SERN SD.
WE HAD SEEN SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES NORTH OF KOFK AS EARLY
AFTN. SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS PSBL...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM NELIGH TO FREMONT AND RED OAK.
WILL TRIM HEADLINES TO THE S...BUT KEEP HEADLINES GOING N WHERE PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. NEW AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NOT
OVERLY HIGH IN OUR NORTH...BUT A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. CLOSED
LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EWD/NEWD...REACHING SWRN MN BY 12 TUE AND
THEN SHOULD BE OVER WI BY 12Z WED. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW EVEN INTO
TUE NIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THAT CLOSED LOW TRACKS
NEWD AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY 40S
SOUTH AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH. PCPN CHANCES STILL SEEM TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER NM BY
SAT...THEN THAT MOVES OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUN/MON. GENLY
FAVORED THE ECMWF MORE THAN THE GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
RATHER COMPLEX FCST IN PART TO LARGE SYSTEM PREVAILING OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS. LATEST OBS INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER ERN NEB
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
GIVEN TRACK OF UPPER LOW...EXPECT VFR/MVFR MIX TO CONTINUE AT
KOMA/KLNK THRU ABOUT LATE MORNING BEFORE RE APPEARANCE OF MVFR
CIGS ON BACKSIDE OF PIVOTING UPPER LOW SOMETIME DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND PREVAILING THE DURATION OF THE FCST PD. FOR
KOFK...NO IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ANTICIPATED THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1122 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
DRY AIR IS SHUTTING DOWN THE SNOW SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2. THE
NEW FORECAST REDUCES SNOW CHANCES IN THIS AREA AND REMOVES KEITH
AND PERKINS COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST. THE LOW
SHOULD BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...AS WEAK LIFT WILL
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE ADDED SHERIDAN COUNTY TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AS MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW /TROWAL/
FAVORS SNOW IN THE UPSLOPE AREA OF THE PINE RIDGE IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON
FOR WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TROWAL PERSISTING IN
THAT AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL
1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT LOCALLY 4 INCHES OR SO IN
NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY.
ON TUESDAY THE WEAKENING TROWAL SHIFTS EAST OVER BOYD AND HOLT
COUNTY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS WHERE ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
AS THE CYCLONE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE
SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL DIMINISH AND END BY EARLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE MID RANGE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE NAM AND GFS MAY BE A LITTLE
TOO HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND AN UPPER TROUGH/
LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS ABOUT 200NM DIFFERENCE IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND TAKES THE CENTER OF THE LOW
THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE
EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE INVERTED
TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. BLENDING THE LONG RANGE MODELS
ACTUALLY KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT.
FOR THE TIME BEING...THEN...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
MVFR/LOCAL LIFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY
2 TUESDAY AFTN AS SHOWN BY THE RAP AND NAM MODELS.
MVFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS MAY CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
281 TUESDAY EVENING. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ004-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ005>010-023>029-035>038-059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
101 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE AREA PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...SEVERAL OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
RELATIVE GAP IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AFTER FIRST
IMPULSE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MINOR SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES TO THE
EAST. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE HOURLY POP TRENDS BY
USING SMOOTHED GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY. LOOKS
LIKE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ALL OF NEPA WILL EXPERIENCE
THE LEAST AMOUNT OF DRY TIME TODAY AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MAIN
RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO SURGE TOWARD THAT PART OF THE
AREA...WHILE THE FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS SHOULD BE
MAINLY OUT OF THE PRECIP. PATCHY DRIZZLE STILL POSSIBLE IN MOST
AREAS THAT LOSE THE STEADY RAIN, THOUGH. A MILD DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE THROUGH THE 40S.
625 AM UPDATE...WILL ALLOW THE FZRA ADV TO EXPIRE AT 7AM AS
MESONET SITES IN THE ADV AREA ONLY SHOW A FEW SITES REMAINING
AT 32 DEGREES AND WITH DEW POINTS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF SFC
TEMPS EXPECT ONLY A FEW POCKET OF FZRA WILL REMAIN AFTER 7AM AND
THIS WILL ONLY LAST FOR ANOTHER HOUR.
PREVIOUS DISC...
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM FOR DELAWARE,
OTSEGO, CHENANGO, MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES, AS A FEW LOCATIONS
STILL HAVE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING. ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIGHT
AND SHORT LIVED AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE WHICH LIMITS
THE AMOUNT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SFC
LOW PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGHEST POPS AND GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
OVER NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER WITH LESS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST TO
AROUND 50 IN THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES PUSHES A SFC OCCLUSION
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CAT
POPS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES IN THE TN VALLEY WILL
LIFT NE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN PA AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL SPREAD
ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NE
PA, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND THE LOCAL BGM AREA. WED WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MILD WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TOTAL RAINFALL
FROM TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE .50-.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO 1.0-1.50 INCHES
ACROSS NE PA AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS THE EVENT IS SPREAD ACROSS 36-48 HOURS AND MAIN
STEM RIVERS ARE LOW.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SFC LOW PRES MOVES INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES A COOLER NW FLOW WILL FOLLOW
WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH LIKELY POPS SE OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. T85 ONLY DROPS TO -6C SO SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. MINOR SNOW ACCUMS MAY OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AS THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
ANOTHER NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE UPON US IN THE EXTENDED.
PRECIP CONCERNS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED OTHERWISE WE ARE
LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR
FRIDAY, 850 TEMPS OF -6 TO -7C SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WITH LAKE
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR SOME SCT. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
OVER CNY. WE ARE MOIST UP THROUGH 5KFT, BUT LAKE PARAMETERS ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. WHILE SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
DAY FRIDAY, BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM BY AFTERNOON TO KEEP
ANYTHING FALLING MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
BEYOND ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED. 500 HEIGHTS
APPROACH 576 DM AND IN RESPONSE 850 TEMPS CLIMB TO +6C. THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR TEMPS INTO THE 50S, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF RAIN,
DOESN`T LOOK TO BE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...
MOSTLY MVFR WITH IFR STILL AT ITH/BGM. SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAYBE A 1K FT CIG RISE. BACK TO IFR/MVFR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STEADY RAIN MOVING IN FROM SW. WITH HEAVIER
RAIN TONIGHT VSBYS AND CIGS COULD DROP TO IFR AT ALL SITES.
THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FOR LLWS. FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON WINDS AROUND 2,000 FEET WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST UP TO AROUND 40 KTS. LLWS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THROUGH
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY TONIGHT.
SFC WINDS E TO SE AT 8 KTS THIS AFTN. TONIGHT SE TO S WINDS AT 5
KTS. WIND SHIFT TUESDAY MORNING TO W OR NW IN NY.
.OUTLOOK...
WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY, IN LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN.
THU...MOSTLY VFR, BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NY.
FRI/SUN...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...JAB/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1010 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE AREA PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...SEVERAL OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
RELATIVE GAP IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AFTER FIRST
IMPULSE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MINOR SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES TO THE
EAST. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE HOURLY POP TRENDS BY
USING SMOOTHED GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY. LOOKS
LIKE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ALL OF NEPA WILL EXPERIENCE
THE LEAST AMOUNT OF DRY TIME TODAY AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MAIN
RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO SURGE TOWARD THAT PART OF THE
AREA...WHILE THE FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS SHOULD BE
MAINLY OUT OF THE PRECIP. PATCHY DRIZZLE STILL POSSIBLE IN MOST
AREAS THAT LOSE THE STEADY RAIN, THOUGH. A MILD DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE THROUGH THE 40S.
625 AM UPDATE...WILL ALLOW THE FZRA ADV TO EXPIRE AT 7AM AS
MESONET SITES IN THE ADV AREA ONLY SHOW A FEW SITES REMAINING
AT 32 DEGREES AND WITH DEW POINTS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF SFC
TEMPS EXPECT ONLY A FEW POCKET OF FZRA WILL REMAIN AFTER 7AM AND
THIS WILL ONLY LAST FOR ANOTHER HOUR.
PREVIOUS DISC...
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM FOR DELAWARE,
OTSEGO, CHENANGO, MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES, AS A FEW LOCATIONS
STILL HAVE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING. ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIGHT
AND SHORT LIVED AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE WHICH LIMITS
THE AMOUNT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SFC
LOW PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGHEST POPS AND GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
OVER NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER WITH LESS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST TO
AROUND 50 IN THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES PUSHES A SFC OCCLUSION
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CAT
POPS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES IN THE TN VALLEY WILL
LIFT NE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN PA AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL SPREAD
ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NE
PA, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND THE LOCAL BGM AREA. WED WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MILD WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TOTAL RAINFALL
FROM TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE .50-.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO 1.0-1.50 INCHES
ACROSS NE PA AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS THE EVENT IS SPREAD ACROSS 36-48 HOURS AND MAIN
STEM RIVERS ARE LOW.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SFC LOW PRES MOVES INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES A COOLER NW FLOW WILL FOLLOW
WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH LIKELY POPS SE OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. T85 ONLY DROPS TO -6C SO SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. MINOR SNOW ACCUMS MAY OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AS THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
ANOTHER NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE UPON US IN THE EXTENDED.
PRECIP CONCERNS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED OTHERWISE WE ARE
LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR
FRIDAY, 850 TEMPS OF -6 TO -7C SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WITH LAKE
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR SOME SCT. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
OVER CNY. WE ARE MOIST UP THROUGH 5KFT, BUT LAKE PARAMETERS ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. WHILE SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
DAY FRIDAY, BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM BY AFTERNOON TO KEEP
ANYTHING FALLING MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
BEYOND ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED. 500 HEIGHTS
APPROACH 576 DM AND IN RESPONSE 850 TEMPS CLIMB TO +6C. THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR TEMPS INTO THE 50S, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF RAIN,
DOESN`T LOOK TO BE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KBGM AND KELM.
ONE AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID
MORNING. MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS, BUT IFR WILL STILL HANG ON
TOUGH AT KBGM AND KELM. ELSEWHERE A WIND FLOW VEERING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THE RULE, WITH VFR POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE MORNING.
AFTER A LULL IN RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT TOWARD VFR POSSIBLE (OUTSIDE OF KELM AND KBGM), A NEW
AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AGAIN WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS MOST LIKELY, BUT IFR
STILL POSSIBLE AT KBGM AND IN HEAVIER AREAS OF RAIN.
THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FOR LLWS. FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON WINDS AROUND 2,000 FEET WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST UP TO AROUND 40 KTS. LLWS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THROUGH
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY, IN LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN.
THU...MOSTLY VFR, BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NY.
FRI/SAT...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...JAB/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
302 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND BUILDS
OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...BAND OF SHOWERS EXITING THE OUTER BANKS AT
MID-AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN LATER
TONIGHT...HRRR AND RAP SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TRENDS OF HIGHER
POPS COASTAL SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WITH WINDS VEERING TO SE/S
LATE TONIGHT COUPLED WITH CLOUDS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS MID/UPPER 50S. CONDITIONS FAVOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG PRIOR TO
BETTER MIXING AROUND DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...WARM FRONT TO SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. IN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT CAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG AND LI`S IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH AVERAGE QPF ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LARGELY BY ONE-QUARTER OR LESS...SOME ISOLATED BRIEF
DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM FOR EARLY DECEMBER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 70 TO 75
DEGREES AREA-WIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT DRY WX AND TEMPS NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W THU...THEN
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER WX ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER
TEMPS THU THROUGH TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S/LOW 60S...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. AT
THIS TIME THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING LOOKS THE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING INLAND.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 12Z GFS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING OUT THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE FRI AND SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS MORE RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS ENC. MODELS THEN SHOW
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SE COAST MON
NIGHT AND TUE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER/SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM TUESDAY...A CHALLENGING FORECAST AS GUIDANCE HAS DONE
A POOR JOB PORTRAYING CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
POINTS WEST UNDER IFR/LIFR CIGS. EVEN CENTRAL NC DEALING WITH
IFR/LIFR VSBYS. GIVEN THIS...HAVE USED CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
FORECAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX TO HELP DEPICT THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LOW CIGS TO THE EAST HAVE PLACED
MOST TAF SITES UNDER IFR CRITERIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH EWN
BEING THE LAST TO DROP. CIGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. HAVE MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER LIFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z WITH OAJ BEING THE EXCEPTION FOR
NOW. GIVEN A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG SITUATION...AND WINDS INCREASING
LATER IN THE MORNING...FEEL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND
FOR A BIT AFTER SUNRISE. BY MID-MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE
MIXING OUT WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND FROM THE SOUTH AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUE...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LINGER WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU
THROUGH SUN...THOUGH PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NW TO N AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH SEAS AT 4 TO 5 FEET AT
THE REPORTING PLATFORMS OFFSHORE. AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OFFSHORE...EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO S/SW TOWARD MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND BOTH LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL AND
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATING SEAS BUILDING TO AS MUCH AS 6 FEET
BETWEEN OREGON INLET AND OCRACOKE...HAVE INITIATED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THESE LEGS STARTING TOMORROW MORNING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. FAR SOUTHERN LEG IS MORE MARGINAL...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO LATER ADVISORIES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...WITH GUSTY SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMING NWLY.
GUSTY NW/N FLOW 15-25KT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THU
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-6FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE
PERIOD...MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THU MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THU AND BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODERATE N/NE FLOW...15-25KT...WILL DEVELOP FRI INTO SAT
WITH STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH. LATEST GUIDANCE NOT AS STRONG WITH
THE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOWING THE HIGH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...WILL CONTINUE 15-20KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6FT. SCA
POSSIBLE SAT AND SUN...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR AMZ152-154-156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...LEP/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
255 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND BUILDS
OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...BAND OF SHOWERS EXITING THE OUTER BANKS AT
MID-AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN LATER
TONIGHT...HRRR AND RAP SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TRENDS OF HIGHER
POPS COASTAL SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WITH WINDS VEERING TO SE/S
LATE TONIGHT COUPLED WITH CLOUDS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS MID/UPPER 50S. CONDITIONS FAVOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG PRIOR TO
BETTER MIXING AROUND DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...WARM FRONT TO SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. IN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT CAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG AND LI`S IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH AVERAGE QPF ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LARGELY BY ONE-QUARTER OR LESS...SOME ISOLATED BRIEF
DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM FOR EARLY DECEMBER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 70 TO 75
DEGREES AREA-WIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUE...PREDOMINATE DRY WX AND TEMPS NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W THU...THEN
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER WX ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER
TEMPS THU THROUGH TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S/LOW 60S...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. AT
THIS TIME THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING LOOKS THE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING INLAND.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 12Z GFS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING OUT THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE FRI AND SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS MORE RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS ENC. MODELS THEN SHOW
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SE COAST MON
NIGHT AND TUE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER/SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM TUESDAY...A CHALLENGING FORECAST AS GUIDANCE HAS DONE
A POOR JOB PORTRAYING CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
POINTS WEST UNDER IFR/LIFR CIGS. EVEN CENTRAL NC DEALING WITH
IFR/LIFR VSBYS. GIVEN THIS...HAVE USED CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
FORECAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX TO HELP DEPICT THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LOW CIGS TO THE EAST HAVE PLACED
MOST TAF SITES UNDER IFR CRITERIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH EWN
BEING THE LAST TO DROP. CIGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. HAVE MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER LIFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z WITH OAJ BEING THE EXCEPTION FOR
NOW. GIVEN A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG SITUATION...AND WINDS INCREASING
LATER IN THE MORNING...FEEL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND
FOR A BIT AFTER SUNRISE. BY MID-MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE
MIXING OUT WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND FROM THE SOUTH AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUE...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LINGER WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU
THROUGH SUN...THOUGH PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NW TO N AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH SEAS AT 4 TO 5 FEET AT
THE REPORTING PLATFORMS OFFSHORE. AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OFFSHORE...EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO S/SW TOWARD MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND BOTH LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL AND
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATING SEAS BUILDING TO AS MUCH AS 6 FEET
BETWEEN OREGON INLET AND OCRACOKE...HAVE INITIATED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THESE LEGS STARTING TOMORROW MORNING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. FAR SOUTHERN LEG IS MORE MARGINAL...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO LATER ADVISORIES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...WITH GUSTY SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMING NWLY.
GUSTY NW/N FLOW 15-25KT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THU
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-6FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE
PERIOD...MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THU MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THU AND BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODERATE N/NE FLOW...15-25KT...WILL DEVELOP FRI INTO SAT
WITH STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH. LATEST GUIDANCE NOT AS STRONG WITH
THE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOWING THE HIGH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...WILL CONTINUE 15-20KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6FT. SCA
POSSIBLE SAT AND SUN...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...LEP/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
954 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND BUILDS
OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM TUESDAY...PATCHY SHOWERS AFFECTING CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AT MID-MORNING. LATEST 3KM HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON RADAR COVERAGE...BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO FORECAST AS WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HOLDS MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH WARM FRONT N OF AREA AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM W ACROSS
MTNS. MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS ISSUANCE WAS TO INCREASE POPS ALONG
COAST WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE PRODUCING SCT SHOWERS AND PSBLY
ISOLATED TSTM. KEPT POPS 20-40% LATE TONIGHT...HIGHEST ALONG OBX.
MIN TEMPS MAINLY 55-60...WITH SLIGHT WARMING TREND INDICATED LATE
PER MOS GDNC.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE IN THE
1000-850 MB LAYER MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. HAVE REDONE THE POPS...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN TO 40-50 MOST OF THE
REMAINDER...WITH A STRIP OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. INSTABILITY INDICES SHOW -1 TO -2 LI`S
GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM OREGON INLET TO MOREHEAD CITY SO
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. FOR 18Z-00Z THE SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-STATE AREA. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT.
INSTABILITY INDICES POOR SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST 06Z-12Z WITH SHOWERS ENDING QUICKLY BEHIND
IT. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
MODELS SHOW UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WHICH COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THESE MARINE ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR AT KEWN AND KOAJ
PAST HOUR BUT IFR PERSISTING KPGV AND KISO. EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP AT KEWN AND KOAJ NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN BACK UP TO VFR
DURING AFTN. INLAND SITES GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR BUT LIKELY
PERSISTING THROUGH AFTN. LIGHT SRLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS N...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...SUB-VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS END BY LATE WED EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. VFR/DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...THEN
NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT N/NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS AT MID-
MORNING. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET WITH A DOWNWARD TREND. WILL
ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM AS DIAMOND BUOY CURRENTLY AT 5.6 FEET
AND FALLING. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS AREA BY
EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING S-SW AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE
TONIGHT.
LINGERING 4-6 FT SEAS OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE MORNING...AND DROP TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR THE
FORECAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE WATERS BY 12Z THURSDAY. SMALL
CRAFT SEAS FORECAST NORTH OF OCRACOKE THURSDAY IN POST-FRONTAL
SURGE...WHICH SUBSIDES THURSDAY EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE SW-NE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY IN
THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AS OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP IN BETWEEN HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...CTC/JBM/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
947 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A DECENT FALL-RISE COUPLET IS NOTED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA BUT
THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP A STEADY SOUTHWEST SWITCHING WEST WIND
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT. THIS...IN ADDITION
TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH.
SNOWPACK OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE
DIGIT READINGS ALREADY LATE THIS EVENING. HERE WE THINK THERE
COULD BE A DROP OF A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AND PERHAPS WE SEE A LITTLE MORE MIXING WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THUS LOWERED TEMPERATURES HERE A BIT MORE LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE
KEEPING THEM NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.
OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES AND A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY COVER WITH THE
HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. A FEW REFLECTIVITIES
NOTED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA DROPPING SOUTHEAST BUT THINK THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA AS
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE DRY. WITH THE STEADY WINDS NORTH AND
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW. IF
ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP OVER/ADJACENT TO THE SNOWPACK...WOULD
EXPECT IT TO BE VERY PATCHY IN NATURE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO ENCROACH
INTO THE NORTHWEST. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WAS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA
WHERE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEARING FORECAST
LOWS. NEEDED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS FROM AROUND CARRINGTON AND JAMESTOWN SOUTH AND WEST TO
LINTON...ASHLEY AND OAKES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE FOR NOW. LOW TEMPERATURES FARTHER WEST WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH THE THICKER CIRRUS ERODES AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRIER
ATMOSPHERE OVER ND...AND IF THE WINDS DROP OFF OR HOLD STEADY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SNOW FIELD AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING UP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK WITH THE LATE EVENING
UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEAR SKY ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS (700MB-500MB) NOW INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM ALBERTA SOUTH INTO WESTERN MONTANA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY IN THE EVENING GIVING WAY TO A PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY WEST INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH AS IT
SHIFTS THROUGH 06Z-15Z THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS WEST AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL. THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL 12Z THURSDAY AND WITH FAIRLY
FRESH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...THIS IS THE AREA WHERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TEENS JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY
WEST IN AREAS LACKING SNOW COVER AND ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARRIVING
OVERNIGHT. LOOKED AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS
NOTHING DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME. WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
NEAR 32F WEDNESDAY...FEEL THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS DECREASING
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE /12Z- 15Z/ FOLLOWED BY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND
HIGHS 35 TO 45.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING
CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
BY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE. AT THE MOMENT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH SAID COLD FRONT WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WHERE THE STRONGER FORCING WILL RESIDE.
A RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...WITH SUBTLE WAVES MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION.
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE
WAVES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. WILL MONITOR FOR PATCHY FOG BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO ADD TO TAFS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
636 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO ENCROACH
INTO THE NORTHWEST. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WAS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA
WHERE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEARING FORECAST
LOWS. NEEDED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS FROM AROUND CARRINGTON AND JAMESTOWN SOUTH AND WEST TO
LINTON...ASHLEY AND OAKES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE FOR NOW. LOW TEMPERATURES FARTHER WEST WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH THE THICKER CIRRUS ERODES AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRIER
ATMOSPHERE OVER ND...AND IF THE WINDS DROP OFF OR HOLD STEADY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SNOW FIELD AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING UP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK WITH THE LATE EVENING
UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEAR SKY ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS (700MB-500MB) NOW INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM ALBERTA SOUTH INTO WESTERN MONTANA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY IN THE EVENING GIVING WAY TO A PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY WEST INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH AS IT
SHIFTS THROUGH 06Z-15Z THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS WEST AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL. THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL 12Z THURSDAY AND WITH FAIRLY
FRESH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...THIS IS THE AREA WHERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TEENS JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY
WEST IN AREAS LACKING SNOW COVER AND ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARRIVING
OVERNIGHT. LOOKED AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS
NOTHING DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME. WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
NEAR 32F WEDNESDAY...FEEL THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS DECREASING
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE /12Z- 15Z/ FOLLOWED BY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND
HIGHS 35 TO 45.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING
CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
BY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE. AT THE MOMENT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH SAID COLD FRONT WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WHERE THE STRONGER FORCING WILL RESIDE.
A RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...WITH SUBTLE WAVES MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION.
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE
WAVES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. WILL MONITOR FOR PATCHY FOG BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO ADD TO TAFS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1235 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
FIRST SNOW BAND FROM KBDE TO KGFK TO COOPERSTOWN TOOK A LITTLE
LONGER TO WIND DOWN THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THAT IT IS FINALLY STARTING TO DO SO...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER BAND OF
SNOW REMAINS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KBJI TO KFAR TO LISBON. THIS
BAND WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING AN
INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER TEMPS IN THIS AREA
ARE ALSO FAIRLY MILD OR IN THE 33-34F RANGE. THEREFORE SNOW RATIOS
ARE GOING TO BE 10:1 OR EVEN LOWER...SO THERE COULD BE SPOTS WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH. FROM WEB CAMS IT LOOKS LIKE IF ROADS HAVE BEEN
PLOWED THEY ARE STARTING TO MELT OFF. NOT ENOUGH WIND TODAY TO
PRODUCE ANY DRIFTING SNOW...SO ROAD CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON. AS FAR THE ADVISORY...STILL SEEING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...SO NO PLANS TO CANCEL AT
THIS POINT. MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM MOST IF NOT ALL THE REMAINING
COUNTIES PRIOR TO 4 PM.
FINALLY...SEEING SOME CLEAR SPOTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NW
WITH TEMPS ALREADY AT 36F. WITH SOME SUN STILL POSSIBLE FOR A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUMP UP HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
SNOW AMOUNTS AND TIMING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WRAP
AROUND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SD AND
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SNOW BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AND ANOTHER
JUST ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE
A DECENT HANDLE ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON AND THEY BOTH HAVE THE
SNOW BANDS MOVING ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH AND THEN DECREASING IN
INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING
FOR THE SNOW BANDS...AND BUMPED UP AMOUNTS A BIT OVER THE
COOPERSTOWN TO MAYVILLE TO FOSSTON AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OVERALL...MOST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
BOTH THE HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SNOW
BAND SETTING UP LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THIS
SEEMS TO BE FROM SOME 700MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT GETS GOING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
MODELS ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON KEEPING SOME SNOWFALL GOING
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE QPF MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME GOOD LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE
-15 C ZONE OVER THE PARK RAPIDS AREA. THINK THAT ANOTHER 2 TO 3
INCHES ON TOP OF WHAT ALREADY FELL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
THUS...EXTENDED THE ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SFC LOW. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS CUT OFF SYSTEM.
STILL...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH 20S IN THE EAST
WITH CLOUDS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST SNOW ENDS UP BUT FOR NOW KEPT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
QUIET AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH EXISTING BANDS OF -SN
WHICH DROP CIGS AND VSBY OTHERWISE VSBY GOOD MAINLY VALLEY EAST.
MADE BEST ATTEMPT TO REFLECT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
SNOW BANDS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING FROM NW TO SE. MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR BY MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ024-
026>030-038-039-049-052.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ017-
024-027>032-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ001>003-013>016-022-023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/WJB
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
952 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
RADAR IS SHOWING TWO BANDS OF SNOW THIS MORNING. THE FIRST THIN
BAND EXTENDS FROM LAKE OF THE WOODS TO GRAND FORKS TO NEW
ROCKFORD. IT WAS SNOWING FAIRLY HEAVILY AT THE NWS OFFICE IN
GRAND FORKS A FEW MINUTES AGO BUT HAS SINCE JUST ABOUT STOPPED.
THE BAND APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AND WEST OF THE OFFICE.
THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND
BE ABOUT DONE. MORE CONCERNED WITH THE SECOND BAND THAT EXTENDS
FROM NEAR KDLH TO KPKD/KDTL. THINK THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE BACK INTO THESE AREAS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES IT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW FROM KPKD TO KFFM.
AS FAR AS SNOW TOTALS SO FAR...IT SEEMS LIKE IF YOU SAW SNOW YOU
PICKED UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OR SO. THEN THERE WAS A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NO OR LITTLE SNOW. THIS CUTOFF SEEMS TO BE WEST OF A LINE FROM
HALLOCK MN TO AROUND KDVL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
SNOW AMOUNTS AND TIMING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WRAP
AROUND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SD AND
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SNOW BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AND ANOTHER
JUST ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE
A DECENT HANDLE ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON AND THEY BOTH HAVE THE
SNOW BANDS MOVING ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH AND THEN DECREASING IN
INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING
FOR THE SNOW BANDS...AND BUMPED UP AMOUNTS A BIT OVER THE
COOPERSTOWN TO MAYVILLE TO FOSSTON AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OVERALL...MOST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
BOTH THE HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SNOW
BAND SETTING UP LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THIS
SEEMS TO BE FROM SOME 700MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT GETS GOING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
MODELS ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON KEEPING SOME SNOWFALL GOING
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE QPF MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME GOOD LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE
-15 C ZONE OVER THE PARK RAPIDS AREA. THINK THAT ANOTHER 2 TO 3
INCHES ON TOP OF WHAT ALREADY FELL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
THUS...EXTENDED THE ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SFC LOW. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS CUT OFF SYSTEM.
STILL...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH 20S IN THE EAST
WITH CLOUDS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST SNOW ENDS UP BUT FOR NOW KEPT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
QUIET AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
CIGS ARE MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR AND THE MAIN RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN TO
VISIBILITY. SNOW BANDS TRAVELING THROUGH HAVE BROUGHT VIS DOWN TO
1-2SM AT TIMES...WITH SOME 3-5SM IN THE LIGHTER SNOW OUTSIDE THE
MAIN BANDS. THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OVER
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE TAF SITES
TO IMPROVE IN VISIBILITY AND CIGS SHOULD GO UP TO VFR BY THIS
EVENING. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME CLEARING FOR ALL BUT KBJI BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TODAY...THEN DIMINISH DOWN BELOW 10 KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ024-
026>030-038-039-049-052.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ017-
024-027>032-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ001>003-013>016-022-023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/WJB
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CWA...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO FIT RADAR TRENDS. CONTINUED TO
KEEP HIGH POPS GOING AND WILL TRANSITION THE MAIN BAND TO OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SEEM ON TRACK TO
GET ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BEFORE THE ACTIVITY TAPERS
OFF TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
SNOW AMOUNTS AND TIMING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WRAP
AROUND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SD AND
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SNOW BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AND ANOTHER
JUST ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE
A DECENT HANDLE ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON AND THEY BOTH HAVE THE
SNOW BANDS MOVING ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH AND THEN DECREASING IN
INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING
FOR THE SNOW BANDS...AND BUMPED UP AMOUNTS A BIT OVER THE
COOPERSTOWN TO MAYVILLE TO FOSSTON AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OVERALL...MOST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
BOTH THE HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SNOW
BAND SETTING UP LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THIS
SEEMS TO BE FROM SOME 700MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT GETS GOING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
MODELS ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON KEEPING SOME SNOWFALL GOING
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE QPF MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME GOOD LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE
-15 C ZONE OVER THE PARK RAPIDS AREA. THINK THAT ANOTHER 2 TO 3
INCHES ON TOP OF WHAT ALREADY FELL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
THUS...EXTENDED THE ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SFC LOW. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS CUT OFF SYSTEM.
STILL...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH 20S IN THE EAST
WITH CLOUDS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST SNOW ENDS UP BUT FOR NOW KEPT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
QUIET AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
CIGS ARE MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR AND THE MAIN RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN TO
VISIBILITY. SNOW BANDS TRAVELING THROUGH HAVE BROUGHT VIS DOWN TO
1-2SM AT TIMES...WITH SOME 3-5SM IN THE LIGHTER SNOW OUTSIDE THE
MAIN BANDS. THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OVER
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE TAF SITES
TO IMPROVE IN VISIBILITY AND CIGS SHOULD GO UP TO VFR BY THIS
EVENING. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME CLEARING FOR ALL BUT KBJI BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TODAY...THEN DIMINISH DOWN BELOW 10 KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ024-
026>030-038-039-049-052.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ017-
024-027>032-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ001>003-013>016-022-023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/WJB
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
313 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
SNOW AMOUNTS AND TIMING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WRAP
AROUND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SD AND
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SNOW BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AND ANOTHER
JUST ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE
A DECENT HANDLE ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON AND THEY BOTH HAVE THE
SNOW BANDS MOVING ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH AND THEN DECREASING IN
INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING
FOR THE SNOW BANDS...AND BUMPED UP AMOUNTS A BIT OVER THE
COOPERSTOWN TO MAYVILLE TO FOSSTON AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OVERALL...MOST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
BOTH THE HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SNOW
BAND SETTING UP LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THIS
SEEMS TO BE FROM SOME 700MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT GETS GOING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
MODELS ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON KEEPING SOME SNOWFALL GOING
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE QPF MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME GOOD LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE
-15 C ZONE OVER THE PARK RAPIDS AREA. THINK THAT ANOTHER 2 TO 3
INCHES ON TOP OF WHAT ALREADY FELL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
THUS...EXTENDED THE ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SFC LOW. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS CUT OFF SYSTEM.
STILL...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH 20S IN THE EAST
WITH CLOUDS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST SNOW ENDS UP BUT FOR NOW KEPT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
QUIET AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
FLUCTUATING VSBY. CIGS WILL ALSO FLUCTUATE...BUT WILL BE MOSTLY
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR AND VFR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ024-
026>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ001>003-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/WJB
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
114 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
INITIAL SURGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES UNDERNEATH A
TROWAL WRAPPING WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW FOLLOWS A LINE FROM WELLS
COUNTY THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MANDAN INTO HETTINGER. LULL IN
PRECIPITATION OVER MY SOUTHEAST AT THE MOMENT.
NEXT SURGE OF PRECIPITATION ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY
OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
GFS20/HRRR/RAP BRING THIS AREA OF SNOW WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 09Z THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY.
AFTERWORDS FORCING RAPIDLY WINDS DOWN AND WILL SEE SNOW ENDING
RATHER QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL ALSO FOLLOW
THIS TREND.
ALL AND ALL FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
THINKING AND WILL MAINTAIN HEADLINES AS IS WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL
MAY ADD SHERIDAN COUNTY DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS NEXT SURGE OF
SNOW TRACKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
BASED ON RECENT HRRR/RAP RUN-TOTAL LIQUID-EQUIVALENT FORECASTS OF
0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES IN WELLS AND FOSTER COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW BEING REPORTED UPSTREAM OVER
EASTERN ND...WE ADDED WELLS AND FOSTER COUNTIES TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
OTHERWISE...THE GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK...THOUGH RADAR
TRENDS THROUGH 0330 UTC SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW IS GOING TO SPREAD JUST
A BIT FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THAN EARLIER FORECAST. WE THUS CHOSE
TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT A BIT FROM DICKINSON TOWARD MINOT. MOST
SNOWFALL REPORTS THUS FAR THIS EVENING ARE IN LINE WITH THE GOING
FORECAST AND RANGE FROM 3 INCHES IN ELLENDALE TO 0.8 INCHES AT THE
NWS OFFICE IN BISMARCK AS OF 0330 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NECESSARY WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE
CYCLE. SNOW IS SPREADING WEST AND NORTHWEST AND IS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE FROM COOPERSTOWN TO VALLEY CITY...ASHLEY AND MOBRIDGE AT 00
UTC. WE DID INCREASE POPS INTO THE 100 PERCENT RANGE THIS EVENING
IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE IT IS DEFINITELY SNOWING
AND WE ALSO SPREAD 20 TO 30 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES A BIT FURTHER TO
THE NORTH /INTO THE RUGBY AREA/ BASED ON TIME-LAGGED HRRR OUTPUT.
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES OR FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN IOWA WITH HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO PASS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BROAD AREA OF SNOW HAS
NOW SPREAD OVER CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SOME
INITIAL POCKETS OF SNOW PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL
SHIFT TO AN EAST/NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AND PASS OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WITH BROAD COVERAGE DEVELOPING
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH GOING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. STILL A LITTLE QUESTION IF SNOW MAY LIFT A BIT
FURTHER NORTH AS LATEST GUIDANCE PLACES A WEAK TROWAL WORKING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE SNOWFALL
DEVELOPS OVER THIS EVENING TO SEE IF THIS ACTUALLY COULD BECOME A
CONCERN. OVER THE NORTHWEST...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING. GIVEN THAT THIS AREA HAD FOG
DEVELOP THIS MORNING HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY...SNOW WILL START TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST MAINLY ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER. HAD SOME
CONCERN WITH INCREASING WINDS OVER EASTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA GIVEN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING...SO HAVE KEPT WINDS ON
THE TAMER SIDE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
BY TUESDAY EVENING THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE BORDER OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ANTICIPATED SNOW TO EXTEND TO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY EVENING FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE
CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. A WARM NORTHWEST TO WEST H850
FLOW SHOULD BRING A CHINOOK FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES...BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY 30-40...TO 35-
45 BY FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE ROCKIES. THE
NORTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE TROUGH (IN CANADA) PREDOMINATES AND A
STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CANADA...KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CONTINUED MILD
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 45 AND LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL ND /INCLUDING AT THE KBIS AND KJMS TERMINALS/ TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO LIKELY IMPACT KDIK. LOW
CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL ND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THAT STRATUS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 16 UTC TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ047-
048-050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ023-025-034>037-042-045-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
719 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...OFFERING DRY WEATHER WITH A
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS IN INDIANA...AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE.
THE ILN FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A PRECIPITATION LULL...WITH
JUST SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...AND A FEW FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTH. OVER INDIANA...A
WEAK AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST...UNDER AN AREA OF VERY COLD 850MB/700MB AIR. THIS HAS
ALLOWED A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
TO COMBINE WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL FORCING...PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SNOW
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF THIS REGIME WILL CROSS THE ILN CWA BETWEEN 02Z AND
07Z...AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED DURING THIS TIME FRAME
(ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS).
THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE DEGREE OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...SO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER ALL NIGHT (THE 22Z/23Z HRRR
RUNS INDICATED THIS USING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY).
NONETHELESS...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE
WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS (UNDER A HALF INCH) COULD BE POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VLY TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG SFC TROF WHICH IS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
AREA MOVING EAST THRU CENTRAL OHIO. THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH -7 DEGREES AT 8H OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN...RAIN SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW THIS
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH A MAX OF A TENTH
OR TWO...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE. EXPECT LOWS
FROM UPPER 20S WEST TO THE LOWER 30S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT 12Z THURSDAY TO
CONTINUE TRANSLATING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTI-CYCLONIC...CLOUDS
WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT WITH SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER
40S.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
EAST COAST. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WHEN A CLOSED UPPER
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
WHEN MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW TRAVELING THROUGH KENTUCKY. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN
OF HIGH PRESSURE.
OVERALL PATTERN FEATURING AN UPPER RIDGE AND HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S WILL SLIP SLIGHTLY TO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WILL BE AT
THEIR GREATEST DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREVAILING VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AT 00Z WILL
TURN TO MVFR AS CEILINGS LOWER. SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WHERE SNOW MIXES IN...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP...WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS PRECIPITATION MOVES
AWAY...LOW CLOUDS (1000-1500 FEET) WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION...PERSISTING WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LIFT QUICKLY ON THURSDAY...AND
THE CLOUD DECK MAY NOT BREAK UNTIL WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ASIDE FROM SOME OCCASIONAL 20-25 KNOT GUSTS THIS
EVENING...WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KNOT
RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...DIMINISHING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
350 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. ON
WEDNESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OCCLUDED FRONT BISECTING OHIO NORTH TO SOUTH AND WAS JUST EAST OF
KCLE AT 3PM. A WARM FRONT WAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OHIO. LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED INVOF THE FRONT AND TO THE EAST WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA ALSO DRAPED IN FOG. TO THE WEST DRIER AIR WAS
ALREADY MOVING IN. THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST AND EXIT
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGHEST POPS FARTHER EAST AS HRRR SHOWS THIS LIGHT RAIN
EXPANDING A BIT. WILL TAPER POPS WEST WITH KCLE ONLY IN CHANCE CAT
WITH NO POPS WEST OF THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. WITH THE DRIER AIR
MOVING IN TREND WILL ALSO BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING SO WILL HAVE A TREND OF MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY OR THIS
EVENING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR OHIO ZONES. USED GUIDANCE
LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE
SREF IN BRINGING IT ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST BUT
WILL CONTINUE DRY EAST. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS DROP TROUGH THE
DAY...PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
THROUGH THE EVENING HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -4 TO -6C WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION AND THE CENTRAL LAKES. BELIEVE AS
SURFACE TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE EVENING SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO MIX IN
AS MOISTURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. IN THE SNOWBELT HOWEVER DID
CONTINUE TO GO WITH AROUND AN INCH AND MAY BE JUST A BIT MORE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT DEVELOPS. THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN NWRN PA AND CHANCE POPS NERN OHIO.
THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST BUT MOISTURE WILL HANG BACK WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER IN EARLY DECEMBER WILL BE UPON THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BECOME THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE INTO THE WEEKEND. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST PERIOD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. NO REAL STRONG WARM
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BUT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE IN
THE 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR AND LIFR CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF CLEVELAND TO COLUMBUS.
EXPECTING SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE WEST THIS EVENING. ONCE
SUN SETS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN FOG AND STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT ERIE BUT DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY 5 TO 10
KNOTS OF WIND BECOMING SOUTHWEST ELSEWHERE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT ON THE
LAKE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE BY THURSDAY AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT WE
WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY THEN AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
EVENTUALLY FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
103 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG
SIGNIFICANTLY AND CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND
ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN COME TO
AN END AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING MOVING INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EAST AND REMAIN
STEADY STATE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL DROP ALL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL ALSO STILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES AT
GLACIAL SPEED. HAVE HUNG ON TO POPS A BIT LONGER ACROSS THESE
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FRONT
SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE CWA BRINGING IN DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA (PWATS AROUND 0.35"). CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN (ESP
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE FIRST) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ALSO TAKE A NOSE DIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING 850 TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 2 DEGREES C
WILL FALL TO NEAR -6 DEGREES C WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS START
TO SATURATE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DESCENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS MUCH
COLDER 850 TEMPS MOVE INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FARTHER NORTH WHERE NOW IT HAS SHIFTED
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
APPEARS TO HAVE A SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY RAP AROUND AND SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
BURLINGTON SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS NOW HIGHLIGTING OUR AREA FOR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (ON ALL THE NAM... GFS... AND EURO). FOR
NOW HAVE JUST TRENDED POPS IN THIS DIRECTION.
THURSDAY MORNING ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SKIES
WILL ALSO SLOWLY CLEAR THURSDAY LEAVING HIGH TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID
40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUNNY SKIES.
BY MONDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. MODELS DIFFER HERE ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
PIECE OF ENERGY BUT DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIP. FOR
NOW HAVE SCALED BACK POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL LINGER
ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...CEILINGS SHOULD
LIFT TO AROUND 1500 FEET.
FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY ROTATE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. BEFORE THE REGION BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THIS
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AS MVFR CEILINGS BECOME VFR THIS
EVENING/EARLY MORNING...THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
WILL BECOME A CONCERN. THIS POTENTIAL IS BEING SIGNALED BY SEVERAL
MODELS DUE TO WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/CALM AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING NEAR THE SFC (IN ADDITION TO THE DAMP GROUND IN PLACE).
HAVE PLACED THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THE TYPICALLY FOG PRONE
TERMINALS OF KLUK AND KILN...BUT OTHER AIRPORTS SUCH AS KDAY AND
KCVG WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO SEE HOW LOW CONDITIONS MAY BECOME.
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE FARTHER EAST FOR KCMH/KLCK DUE TO A
LINGERING CIRRUS SHIELD. LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID
TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BEING REPLACED BY CONVECTIVE MVFR
CUMULUS/MODERATE CUMULUS. EMBEDDED ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING SFC TROF AXIS AND
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCED SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN SHOWERS
MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER
AIR FITLERS INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
957 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG
SIGNIFICANTLY AND CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND
ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN COME TO
AN END AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING MOVING INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EAST AND REMAIN
STEADY STATE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL DROP ALL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL ALSO STILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES AT
GLACIAL SPEED. HAVE HUNG ON TO POPS A BIT LONGER ACROSS THESE
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FRONT
SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE CWA BRINGING IN DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA (PWATS AROUND 0.35"). CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN (ESP
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE FIRST) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ALSO TAKE A NOSE DIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING 850 TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 2 DEGREES C
WILL FALL TO NEAR -6 DEGREES C WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS START
TO SATURATE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DESCENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS MUCH
COLDER 850 TEMPS MOVE INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FARTHER NORTH WHERE NOW IT HAS SHIFTED
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
APPEARS TO HAVE A SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY RAP AROUND AND SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
BURLINGTON SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS NOW HIGHLIGTING OUR AREA FOR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (ON ALL THE NAM... GFS... AND EURO). FOR
NOW HAVE JUST TRENDED POPS IN THIS DIRECTION.
THURSDAY MORNING ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SKIES
WILL ALSO SLOWLY CLEAR THURSDAY LEAVING HIGH TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID
40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUNNY SKIES.
BY MONDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. MODELS DIFFER HERE ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
PIECE OF ENERGY BUT DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIP. FOR
NOW HAVE SCALED BACK POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 71...WITH MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS
FARTHER TO THE WEST. THE MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY
THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS THROUGH THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR
TO LIFR UNTIL THE FROPA AND THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT UP INTO
MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD THEN WORK IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SOME WRAP
AROUND CLOUDS BEGIN TO WORK BACK IN FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE END
OF THE 30 HOUR KCVG TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
656 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
LAG SIGNIFICANTLY AND CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SECOND SURGE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OFF TO OUR
EAST. THIS PRECIP APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING
JET JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BEING REPORTED IN THE CELLS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
LOOKING AT BOUNDARY LAYER LI FROM THE NAM THERE ARE NEGATIVE
VALUES. NORTH OF THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION THERE IS SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG. GIVEN HOW PATCHY THE FOG HAS BEEN HAVE ELECTED TO STICK
WITH AN SPS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TO SEE IF A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.
THIS SECONDARY BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL THEN HEAD OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE INDIANA/ OHIO STATE
LINE AROUND 10 AM. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL START TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
(SUCH AS SCIOTO). THIS MAKES SENSE AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGS BACK. TEMPORARY
CLEARING WILL ALSO COMMENCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL ALSO STILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES AT
GLACIAL SPEED. HAVE HUNG ON TO POPS A BIT LONGER ACROSS THESE
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FRONT
SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE CWA BRINGING IN DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA (PWATS AROUND 0.35"). CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN (ESP
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE FIRST) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ALSO TAKE A NOSE DIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING 850 TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 2 DEGREES C
WILL FALL TO NEAR -6 DEGREES C WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS START
TO SATURATE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DESCENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS MUCH
COLDER 850 TEMPS MOVE INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FARTHER NORTH WHERE NOW IT HAS SHIFTED
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
APPEARS TO HAVE A SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY RAP AROUND AND SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
BURLINGTON SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS NOW HIGHLIGTING OUR AREA FOR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (ON ALL THE NAM... GFS... AND EURO). FOR
NOW HAVE JUST TRENDED POPS IN THIS DIRECTION.
THURSDAY MORNING ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SKIES
WILL ALSO SLOWLY CLEAR THURSDAY LEAVING HIGH TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID
40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUNNY SKIES.
BY MONDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. MODELS DIFFER HERE ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
PIECE OF ENERGY BUT DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIP. FOR
NOW HAVE SCALED BACK POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 71...WITH MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS
FARTHER TO THE WEST. THE MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY
THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS THROUGH THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR
TO LIFR UNTIL THE FROPA AND THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT UP INTO
MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD THEN WORK IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SOME WRAP
AROUND CLOUDS BEGIN TO WORK BACK IN FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE END
OF THE 30 HOUR KCVG TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
433 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
LAG SIGNIFICANTLY AND CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SECOND SURGE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OFF TO OUR
EAST. THIS PRECIP APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING
JET JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BEING REPORTED IN THE CELLS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
LOOKING AT BOUNDARY LAYER LI FROM THE NAM THERE ARE NEGATIVE
VALUES. NORTH OF THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION THERE IS SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG. GIVEN HOW PATCHY THE FOG HAS BEEN HAVE ELECTED TO STICK
WITH AN SPS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TO SEE IF A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.
THIS SECONDARY BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL THEN HEAD OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE INDIANA/ OHIO STATE
LINE AROUND 10 AM. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL START TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
(SUCH AS SCIOTO). THIS MAKES SENSE AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGS BACK. TEMPORARY
CLEARING WILL ALSO COMMENCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL ALSO STILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES AT
GLACIAL SPEED. HAVE HUNG ON TO POPS A BIT LONGER ACROSS THESE
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FRONT
SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE CWA BRINGING IN DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA (PWATS AROUND 0.35"). CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN (ESP
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE FIRST) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ALSO TAKE A NOSE DIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING 850 TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 2 DEGREES C
WILL FALL TO NEAR -6 DEGREES C WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS START
TO SATURATE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DESCENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS MUCH
COLDER 850 TEMPS MOVE INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FARTHER NORTH WHERE NOW IT HAS SHIFTED
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
APPEARS TO HAVE A SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY RAP AROUND AND SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
BURLINGTON SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS NOW HIGHLIGTING OUR AREA FOR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (ON ALL THE NAM... GFS... AND EURO). FOR
NOW HAVE JUST TRENDED POPS IN THIS DIRECTION.
THURSDAY MORNING ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SKIES
WILL ALSO SLOWLY CLEAR THURSDAY LEAVING HIGH TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID
40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUNNY SKIES.
BY MONDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. MODELS DIFFER HERE ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
PIECE OF ENERGY BUT DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIP. FOR
NOW HAVE SCALED BACK POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. VSBYS HAVE ALSO DROPPED INTO IFR TO LIFR...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PCPN SHIELD LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO. EXPECT THIS PCPN TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH KDAY AND POSSIBLY KCMH/KLCK
REMAINING ON THE EDGE OF THE BETTER PCPN. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL THEN DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH IFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH REST OF
THE MORNING. PCPN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH CIGS LIFTING UP INTO MVFR CATEGORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1152 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
A SMALL AREA OF VERY LOW CLOUDS AND BR OVER W OK AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TX WILL DRIFT SLOWLY E THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MAKING
IT AS FAR AS THE I-35 AREA BY EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
RAISE THE CEILING LEVELS ONCE THE CLOUD LAYER DRIFTS E OF THE AREA
OF THE RECENT ICE STORM. THE REMAINING ICE AND GROUND MOISTURE IN
THE ICE STORM AREA MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FOG OR LOW CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MINOR WIND
SHIFT AS A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
UPDATE...
STRATUS AND CONTINUED PATCHY FOG IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...ADJUSTED
TEMPS...
DISCUSSION...
AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
INCREASED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
WHERE THIS PERSISTENT COVER HAS LIMITED REBOUNDING TEMPS.
ELSEWHERE... INCREASING SUNSHINE HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 40S. VIS SAT DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING OR DISSIPATING OF STRATUS OVER WESTERN OK... AND OBS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH MESO-GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED... THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTN AS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
TO FORCE IT TO CLEAR OUT FASTER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LINGERING
SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION INTO THE EVENING.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
AVIATION...
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST HOUR AT HBR AND
CSM AS LOW CLOUDS (2K FT. CEILINGS) HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PART OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. STILL A CHANCE VERY LOW
CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG WITH LOW VISIBILITY AS
THE STRATUS MOVES NORTHEAST.
AT OKC/OUN SCATTERED VERY LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM CLOSE
TO SUNRISE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14-15Z.
.LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS GAG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS MORNING...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE VISIBILITY REPORTS
RANGE FROM 1/4 TO A 1/2 MILE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING...SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR. THE
CURRENT FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT RAP
SOUNDINGS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...PERHAPS INTO THE OKC AREA.
THE CORE OF A VERY STRONG UPPER JET (150-160 KNOTS) WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...AS A MID/UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
SOUTHWEST-WEST TO NORTHWEST. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE RATHER WEAK...BUT MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES...ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE EC IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. A WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PART OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE RATHER
LOW (LESS THAN 1/8- 1/4 INCH).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 52 29 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 49 28 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 55 30 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 48 24 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 50 28 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 52 32 53 35 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1057 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
STRATUS AND CONTINUED PATCHY FOG IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...ADJUSTED
TEMPS...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
INCREASED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
WHERE THIS PERSISTENT COVER HAS LIMITED REBOUNDING TEMPS.
ELSEWHERE... INCREASING SUNSHINE HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 40S. VIS SAT DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING OR DISSIPATING OF STRATUS OVER WESTERN OK... AND OBS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH MESO-GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED... THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTN AS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
TO FORCE IT TO CLEAR OUT FASTER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LINGERING
SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION INTO THE EVENING.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
AVIATION...
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST HOUR AT HBR AND
CSM AS LOW CLOUDS (2K FT. CEILINGS) HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PART OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. STILL A CHANCE VERY LOW
CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG WITH LOW VISIBILITY AS
THE STRATUS MOVES NORTHEAST.
AT OKC/OUN SCATTERED VERY LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM CLOSE
TO SUNRISE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14-15Z.
..LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS GAG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS MORNING...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE VISIBILITY REPORTS
RANGE FROM 1/4 TO A 1/2 MILE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING...SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR. THE
CURRENT FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT RAP
SOUNDINGS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...PERHAPS INTO THE OKC AREA.
THE CORE OF A VERY STRONG UPPER JET (150-160 KNOTS) WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...AS A MID/UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
SOUTHWEST-WEST TO NORTHWEST. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE RATHER WEAK...BUT MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES...ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE EC IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. A WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PART OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE RATHER
LOW (LESS THAN 1/8- 1/4 INCH).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 52 29 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 49 28 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 55 30 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 48 24 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 50 28 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 52 32 53 35 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
620 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.AVIATION...
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST HOUR AT HBR AND
CSM AS LOW CLOUDS (2K FT. CEILINGS) HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PART OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. STILL A CHANCE VERY LOW
CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG WITH LOW VISIBILITY AS
THE STRATUS MOVES NORTHEAST.
AT OKC/OUN SCATTERED VERY LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM CLOSE
TO SUNRISE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14-15Z.
...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS GAG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS MORNING...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE VISIBILITY REPORTS
RANGE FROM 1/4 TO A 1/2 MILE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING...SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR. THE
CURRENT FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT RAP
SOUNDINGS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...PERHAPS INTO THE OKC AREA.
THE CORE OF A VERY STRONG UPPER JET (150-160 KNOTS) WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...AS A MID/UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
SOUTHWEST-WEST TO NORTHWEST. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE RATHER WEAK...BUT MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES...ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE EC IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. A WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PART OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE RATHER
LOW (LESS THAN 1/8- 1/4 INCH).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 51 29 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 50 28 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 54 30 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 49 24 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 50 28 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 53 32 53 35 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
OKZ014>017-021>023-033>038.
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ083>085.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
310 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS MORNING...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE VISIBILITY REPORTS
RANGE FROM 1/4 TO A 1/2 MILE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING...SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR. THE
CURRENT FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT RAP
SOUNDINGS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...PERHAPS INTO THE OKC AREA.
THE CORE OF A VERY STRONG UPPER JET (150-160 KNOTS) WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...AS A MID/UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
SOUTHWEST-WEST TO NORTHWEST. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE RATHER WEAK...BUT MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES...ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE EC IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. A WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PART OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE RATHER
LOW (LESS THAN 1/8- 1/4 INCH).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 51 29 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 50 28 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 54 30 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 49 24 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 50 28 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 53 32 53 35 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
OKZ014>017-021>023-033>038.
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ083>085.
&&
$$
03/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
938 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND LIFT OUT TO OUR NORTHEAST THURSDAY. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND MILDER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NEAR
ALBANY NY BACK THROUGH NRN PA INTO MICHIGAN JUST NORTH OF DETROIT.
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS
FROM WESTERN OHIO INTO IN/IL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD WESTERN PA AND NY.
RADAR SHOWS A SMALL BUT SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM
NW PA DOWN INTO WESTERN CLEARFIELD COUNTY. IT APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING THAT THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AS IT
PIVOTS THROUGH MAINLY MY NWRN ZONES THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST ORGANIZATION INDICATED AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE.
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE WEE HOURS
OF THURSDAY...THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST BEFORE SPREADING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
A BLEND OF MODEL QPFS YIELDS SNOWFALLS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
WHICH MAY BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THAT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WAS
EXPECTED TO HAVE OCCURRED BY NOW. WE DIDN`T CHANGE THE FORECAST
MUCH AND STUCK WITH WITH 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...WITH A COATING TO 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE EVEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AFTER 06Z. WE DID BACK OFF THE
ADMITTEDLY SMALL AMOUNTS WE HAD FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AS LATEST
GUIDANCE IS STINGY WITH THE QPF ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE 30 ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST TO NEAR 40F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGION OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND SCENT PENN.
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND BECOME CONFINED TO THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS
OF THE LAURELS AND NW MOUNTAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS THURSDAY WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH IN MOST
PLACES ACROSS NW PA AND THE LAURELS...WITH JUST FLURRIES AND
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN MTNS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FCST OVER THE LOWER 48 THRU THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...WITH RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY DECEMBER
ANTICIPATED AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS MIGRATES FROM WEST TO EAST.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.
THE KEY FEATURE HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
MID LEVEL SYSTEM EVOLVING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY
CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TEXAS AND THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE
LARGE SPREAD AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL `LIMBO` WILL STAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SHOW A MODEST INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD CLIMO BY DAY
7-8. THAT SAID...THE PATTERN MAY VERY WELL REMAIN A DRY ONE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PCPN RISK
AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
21Z UPDATE...LAST BAND OF RAIN WILL IMPACT ERN AREAS WITH IFR
HOLDING THRU 00Z. CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING ACROSS THE SW AIRSPACE
IN ZOB SECTOR AS WINDS INCREASE FROM 270-300 DEGREES AND SCOUR OUT
THE IFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH MOST SITES MVFR BY 06Z. SCT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN
AIRSPACE WITH IFR VIS LKLY TO IMPACT BFD AND JST. WINDS FROM 270
TO 310 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE BY 15Z.
OUTLOOK...
THU...IFR WRN TAFS BCMG MVFR. MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH LOW CHC FOR -SHSN. 20-25KT SFC WND GUSTS FROM 280-310.
FRI-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
232 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
QUIET SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS A DRY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE FOUR CORNER REGION PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
PLACE A WEAK COLD FRONT/DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
CHARACTERIZED WITH LOW TEENS DEWPOINTS TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
AND 30S/40S DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND
BRING SOME STRONGER NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH. DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
BEEN ABLE TO PRECEDE THE FRONT AND THIS HAS ACTED TO INCREASE THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WITH WEAKER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR
THE COASTAL PLAINS. WHILE SOME VIRGA WILL BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LOWER LEVELS PER NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST IT WILL QUITE DIFFICULT FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND. HAVE REMOVED AND WEATHER MENTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AND REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TO ONLY 10% FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH
EVEN LESS VALUES FARTHER WEST.
THE CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL ALLOW FOR
A COOLER MORNING AND HAVE GONE BELOW SUPERBLEND VALUES THAT ARE
MORE IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH LINE UP TOWARDS RAW MAV/MET
MOS. EXPECT A DECENT WARM-UP WEDNESDAY AFTN AS AMPLE SUN COMBINES
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO
UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY AS CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OCCUR. BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
BUT MAY ALSO BE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH ONLY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE COOLEST OF THE PERIOD WITH
LOCALIZED FREEZING POCKETS OCCURRING IN THE HILL COUNTRY. OTHER
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AS CLEAR
SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR NEAR CALM WINDS AIDS A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S.
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PWATS ONLY RECOVER TO 0.5"-0.7" AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IT WILL BE
QUITE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR RAIN CHANCES. HAVE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY TO
THE 10-15% RANGE GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL CONCENSUS OF LITTLE TO NO
RAIN EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER LIKELY CHANCE OF SOME
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE HILL COUNTRY NEXT TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 44 65 41 61 39 / - - 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 40 65 37 61 35 / - - 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 44 65 38 62 37 / - - 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 40 62 37 60 37 / - 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 45 68 39 65 39 / - 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 40 62 37 59 36 / - - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 43 67 36 64 36 / - - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 43 64 38 61 37 / - - 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 46 64 40 61 38 / 10 - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 46 67 38 64 38 / - - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 46 66 40 64 39 / - - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1118 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.AVIATION...
QUIET TAF PERIOD WITH A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD EARLY. WEST TO NW WINDS
AOB 12 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
UPDATE...
THE FOG RETREATED QUICKLY TO THE EAST BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM. CALLS
OUT TO DICKENS AND ASPERMONT INDICATE THE FOG IS NOT DENSE IN
THOSE AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY REPORTED AT SNYDER
SUGGESTS THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY STILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT TAF FOR THE FIRST 3 OR 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
PATCHY DENSE FOG ROLLS IN AND OUT OF KLBB...AND POSSIBLY KPVW AND
KCDS AS WELL...CREATING SHORT PERIODS OF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS.
THE FOG WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT
PATCHY FOG COULD RETURN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM CONCERNS THE BROAD AREA OF
FOG...DENSE AT TIMES...COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS FAIRLY WELL...AND
BOTH SUGGEST THE FOG WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND ALSO THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. OUR DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 9
AM AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND IT AN HOUR OR TWO
FOR SOME COUNTIES.
AFTER THE FOG BREAKS...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP INTO THE 50S
THIS AFTERNOON...JUST SHY OF AVERAGE HIGHS. WEST WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT...AND THE SWATH OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY RUNNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH OUR SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY EVENING.
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WORKING THROUGH
THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING
IN SOME COLDER AIR AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT THE
AIRMASS SHOULD BE PRETTY DRY AND WE DON/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...
A WELL-DESERVED RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY IS FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN ENTER THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
REMAIN THE STANDARD SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
RESOLVED OVER THE COMING DAYS...BUT RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER MUTED. HENCE...THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK
TO SQUEEZE OUT WHAT PRECIPITATION IT DOES...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR IT CAN DRAW SOUTHWARD WITH IT...A LITTLE SNOW COULD
MIX IN...AT LEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW TO KICK OFF THE NEW WEEK...THOUGH ANOTHER
QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCE /OR TWO/ COULD FOLLOW BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY DECEMBER WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYS. HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/99/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
721 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
THE FOG RETREATED QUICKLY TO THE EAST BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM. CALLS
OUT TO DICKENS AND ASPERMONT INDICATE THE FOG IS NOT DENSE IN
THOSE AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY REPORTED AT SNYDER
SUGGESTS THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY STILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT TAF FOR THE FIRST 3 OR 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
PATCHY DENSE FOG ROLLS IN AND OUT OF KLBB...AND POSSIBLY KPVW AND
KCDS AS WELL...CREATING SHORT PERIODS OF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS.
THE FOG WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT
PATCHY FOG COULD RETURN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM CONCERNS THE BROAD AREA OF
FOG...DENSE AT TIMES...COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS FAIRLY WELL...AND
BOTH SUGGEST THE FOG WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND ALSO THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. OUR DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 9
AM AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND IT AN HOUR OR TWO
FOR SOME COUNTIES.
AFTER THE FOG BREAKS...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP INTO THE 50S
THIS AFTERNOON...JUST SHY OF AVERAGE HIGHS. WEST WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT...AND THE SWATH OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY RUNNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH OUR SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY EVENING.
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WORKING THROUGH
THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING
IN SOME COLDER AIR AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT THE
AIRMASS SHOULD BE PRETTY DRY AND WE DON/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...
A WELL-DESERVED RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY IS FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN ENTER THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
REMAIN THE STANDARD SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
RESOLVED OVER THE COMING DAYS...BUT RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER MUTED. HENCE...THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK
TO SQUEEZE OUT WHAT PRECIPITATION IT DOES...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR IT CAN DRAW SOUTHWARD WITH IT...A LITTLE SNOW COULD
MIX IN...AT LEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW TO KICK OFF THE NEW WEEK...THOUGH ANOTHER
QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCE /OR TWO/ COULD FOLLOW BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY DECEMBER WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYS. HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
548 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT TAF FOR THE FIRST 3 OR 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
PATCHY DENSE FOG ROLLS IN AND OUT OF KLBB...AND POSSIBLY KPV AND
KCDS AS WELL...CREATING SHORT PERIODS OF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS.
THE FOG WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT
PATCHY FOG COULD RETURN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM CONCERNS THE BROAD AREA OF
FOG...DENSE AT TIMES...COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS FAIRLY WELL...AND
BOTH SUGGEST THE FOG WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND ALSO THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. OUR DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 9
AM AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND IT AN HOUR OR TWO
FOR SOME COUNTIES.
AFTER THE FOG BREAKS...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP INTO THE 50S
THIS AFTERNOON...JUST SHY OF AVERAGE HIGHS. WEST WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT...AND THE SWATH OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY RUNNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH OUR SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY EVENING.
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WORKING THROUGH
THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING
IN SOME COLDER AIR AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT THE
AIRMASS SHOULD BE PRETTY DRY AND WE DON/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...
A WELL-DESERVED RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY IS FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN ENTER THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
REMAIN THE STANDARD SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
RESOLVED OVER THE COMING DAYS...BUT RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER MUTED. HENCE...THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK
TO SQUEEZE OUT WHAT PRECIPITATION IT DOES...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR IT CAN DRAW SOUTHWARD WITH IT...A LITTLE SNOW COULD
MIX IN...AT LEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW TO KICK OFF THE NEW WEEK...THOUGH ANOTHER
QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCE /OR TWO/ COULD FOLLOW BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY DECEMBER WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYS. HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ024>026-
029>032-034>038-040>044.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
317 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM CONCERNS THE BROAD AREA OF
FOG...DENSE AT TIMES...COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS FAIRLY WELL...AND
BOTH SUGGEST THE FOG WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND ALSO THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. OUR DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 9
AM AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND IT AN HOUR OR TWO
FOR SOME COUNTIES.
AFTER THE FOG BREAKS...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP INTO THE 50S
THIS AFTERNOON...JUST SHY OF AVERAGE HIGHS. WEST WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT...AND THE SWATH OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY RUNNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH OUR SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY EVENING.
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WORKING THROUGH
THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING
IN SOME COLDER AIR AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT THE
AIRMASS SHOULD BE PRETTY DRY AND WE DON/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...
A WELL-DESERVED RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY IS FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN ENTER THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
REMAIN THE STANDARD SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
RESOLVED OVER THE COMING DAYS...BUT RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER MUTED. HENCE...THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK
TO SQUEEZE OUT WHAT PRECIPITATION IT DOES...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR IT CAN DRAW SOUTHWARD WITH IT...A LITTLE SNOW COULD
MIX IN...AT LEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW TO KICK OFF THE NEW WEEK...THOUGH ANOTHER
QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCE /OR TWO/ COULD FOLLOW BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY DECEMBER WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYS. HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ024>026-
029>032-034>038-040>044.
&&
$$
33/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
213 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
AS FEARED...THE DENSE FOG REGION IS EXPANDING WESTWARD AND THE
LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE EVENTUAL WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD EXTENT IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT WE HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST
AS FAR AS HOCKLEY AND TERRY COUNTIES AND ALSO INTO HALE COUNTY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015/
AVIATION...
LIFR FOG HAS FORMED AT KCDS A BIT QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. FOG
LOOKS TO BE QUITE THIN AS VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...SIGNAL IS
INDICATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXIST JUST
E OF KLBB/KPVW WITH CLEAR SKIES WEST AND DENSE FOG EAST. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT FOG SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF BOTH TERMINALS
THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A MIXED STORY. PLANNING AN ALTERNATE FOR
FLIGHTS BEFORE 15Z IS LIKELY A GOOD COURSE OF ACTION DESPITE THE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIFR. IT WILL BE CLOSE IT WOULD SEEM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015/
UPDATE...
GIVEN TRENDS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY GENERALLY EAST OF A SILVERTON TO POST LINE. MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRATUS WHICH HAS BEGUN TO
LOWER SURFACE VISIBILITIES. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...SUSPECT THAT DENSE FOG WILL FORM OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015/
SHORT TERM...
RATHER STRONG NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN BANDS OF
MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS RACING OVERHEAD...OTHERWISE BENIGN IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH TUESDAY. ALL THE MEANINGFUL ELEMENTS ARE NEAR THE
SURFACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE COLD MOIST AIRMASS HAS BEEN SWEPT
OFF THE CAPROCK TODAY...BUT LINGERS OUT TO THE EAST OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND IS NOT LIKELY TO ERODE COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID
TO LATE EVENING...SURFACE COOLING ALLIED WITH A WEAK SOUTHWARD SLOSH
OF THE COLD GUNK TO THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO POCKETS OF SATURATION AND
VERY POSSIBLY FOG FORMATION OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. FURTHER
SATURATION OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD FOG...AND CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST
LIGHT ICE DEPOSITION AND POOR VISIBILITIES ALTHOUGH THE FOG LAYER
MAY BE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FEET THICK. AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY MIXING
WILL QUICKLY STIR LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE THE FOG AND LEAD
TO ANOTHER DECENT DAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTH COMPARED TO NORTH
WHERE A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EDGING SOUTHWARD LATE
IN THE DAY. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
OUR THANKSGIVING STORM OF THIS PAST WEEKEND HAS ONE MORE GIFT IN
STORE FOR US AS IT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
PULLED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS THAT
AFTERNOON. THE GOOD NEWS IS FROPA WILL BE DRY! PAST THAT...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOW A QUICK RIDGING PATTERN THAT BREAKS DOWN BY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WHAT HAPPENS
SUNDAY. A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON SATURDAY IN THE LONG
RANGE MODELS BUT THE GFS KEEPS IT AS A WEAK OPEN...AND DRY...LOW AS
IT PASSES ON SUNDAY BEFORE DEVELOPING MORE IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY. THE EURO PUSHES A FULLY CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION...SOME EVEN LINGERING INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A GOOD PUSH OF COLD AIR
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR
THE SRN PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE MORNING FOR SUNDAY
WITH THE REST OF THE AREA BEING ALL LIQUID. HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS
BEING COMPLETELY DRY...KEPT WITH LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY. IN
SUMMARY...IT MAY BE A LITTLE SOGGY ON SUNDAY BUT THIS COMING WEEKEND
SHOULD BE AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THIS PAST ONE.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ024>026-
029>032-034>038-040>044.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1000 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
NOT SEEING ANY RETURNS ON RADAR IN OUR CWA...BUT SOME LIGHT ECHOES
ARE SHOWING UP ON RLX RADARS. THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW LITTLE
MAKING IT SOUTH OF BLF OVERNIGHT...BUT SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE USUALLY
MORE ROBUST IN NW FLOW EVENTS. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA MOVING INTO
THE MOUNTAINS PLUS THE UPPER VORT WORKING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING...THINK A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR SE WV...SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
NC/TN BORDER...THOUGH ONCE YOU GET SOUTH OF BLF-JFZ...THE MOISTURE
LAGS AND THE SUPPORT ALOFT IS LESS. EVEN WITH THIS...SNOWFALL
WOULD BE PUSHING NO MORE THAN ONE INCH AT BEST IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER...WITH LESS THAN A HALF INCH ELSEWHERE.
THE REST OF THE NIGHT...THE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST.
CONCERN SEEN ON THE 18Z GFS AND THE LATEST 00Z NAM IS FOR WINDS TO
PICK UP GIVEN 6 HR PRESSURE RISES OF 6-7 MB. LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE CLOUDS WHICH TEND TO HOLD THE MIXING OF THE HIGHER SPEEDS
DOWN...AND THE LOW LVL JET IS NO MORE THAN 40KTS. THEREFORE...WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN 40-45 MPH ON THE HIGHER RIDGES LEE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS...NAMELY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM BOONE TO PEAKS
OF OTTER AND ADJACENT AREAS.
HAVE INCREASED THE WIND GUSTS AND MENTIONED IN THE HWO FURTHER
NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS ABOUT GUSTS TO
40-45 MPH...WHICH IS UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S HIGHER
RIDGES TO MID 30S TO AROUND 40 EAST. JUST A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NW NC PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
EVENING. COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM ERN NY SOUTHWEST TO THE NC
FOOTHILLS. MODELS SHIFT THIS FRONT TO THE COAST BY EARLY
OVERNIGHT. SOME CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER JET WILL LINGER INTO
OVERNIGHT...SO SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST. WILL
SEE UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS START TO MOVE INTO THE SE WV MTNS AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
WILL NOT INDUCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS 11PM TO MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE
COLUMN IS SHALLOW BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG SHORTWAVE
MAY BRING A DUSTING TO QUINWOOD WV BY MORNING.
TEMPS ARE RUNNING MILDER IN THE EAST...AND LIKED THE 21Z HRRR AND
LAMP DEPICTION OF TEMPS THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO BUMPED THEM UP
OUT EAST DELAYING THE COOLER AIR TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE FRONT
MOVES EAST.
AS FOR HYDRO...STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING. THE ROANOKE RIVER
IS CRESTING AT MOST LOCATIONS INCLUDING RANDOLPH ALTHOUGH A
SECONDARY RISE IS NOTED UPSTREAM AT ALTAVISTA AND BROOKNEAL...SO
ANOTHER BUMP UP IN THE RIVER AT RANDOLPH IS LIKELY...BUT STILL
EXPECTING IT TO STAY UNDER THE 21 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. MOST RIVERS
ARE FALLING...ALTHOUGH SOME RISES ALONG THE DAN AND MIDDLE JAMES
MAY OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES ALONG THE FAR WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES
IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS CLEAR. NIGHTLY TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY BECAUSE OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...LIGHT WINDS...
AND VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE KEPT
RELATIVELY THE SAME WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY.
EXPECTING A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DUE
TO VERY DRY AIR MASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
POOR MODEL CONSENSUS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOWS THE ECMWF MOVING
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST NEARLY A DAY
BEFORE THE GFS. A LATER ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WAS
FAVORED ALONG WITH THE WPC TIMING WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...LINGERING UNTIL WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM DAILY
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NOTING MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
EASTERN TROUGHING CAUSED US TO RAISE POPS BETWEEN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING
BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL
OCCUR AT ROA/LYH/DAN BEFORE CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS OCCURS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FURTHER WEST...WILL SEE INCREASING UPSLOPE WINDS
WHICH WILL KEEP OR BRING CIGS BACK TO MVFR AT BLF/LWB AND BCB IN
THE 00Z-04Z TIME FRAME. THINK BCB WILL KEEP MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE MIXING LIFTS THE CLOUD BASES TO LOW END VFR. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY IMPACT BLF/LWB AS WELL...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANY RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY HERE.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT LEAST TONIGHT FROM ROA WEST...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE
NC MTNS/FAR SW VA MTNS...SUCH AS GEV/MKJ...AND HSP...BUT THE TAF
SITES SHOULD STAY BELOW 30 KTS.
AS THE DAY COMMENCES THURSDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP AT LYH/DAN WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS.
OVERALL...EXPECT CONTINUED MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB THROUGH
THURSDAY...THOUGH SHOULD SEE LWB SCOUR OUT BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE GOING TO SUBSIDE AS WELL BY SUNSET.
MEDIUM TO HIGH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND
WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AT BLF BEFORE DRIER AIR
CLEARS IT OUT. OTHERWISE....HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FRI AND
SAT MORNING DUE TO MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS FROM RECENT
RAINFALL...AT LWB/BCB ESPECIALLY.
BY MONDAY...THE HIGH EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THANKS TO UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS KY/TN. THIS MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA...AND MAYBE SOME SHOWERS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
652 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND PASS OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER
AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 624 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOUTHSIDE VA
INTO NW NC PIEDMONT EARLY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM
ERN NY SOUTHWEST TO THE NC FOOTHILLS. MODELS SHIFT THIS FRONT TO
THE COAST BY EARLY OVERNIGHT. SOME CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER
JET WILL LINGER INTO OVERNIGHT...SO SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST. WILL SEE UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS START TO MOVE INTO
THE SE WV MTNS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT MAIN LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE WILL NOT INDUCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS 11PM
TO MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE COLUMN IS SHALLOW BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A DUSTING TO QUINWOOD WV BY
MORNING.
TEMPS ARE RUNNING MILDER IN THE EAST...AND LIKED THE 21Z HRRR AND
LAMP DEPICTION OF TEMPS THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO BUMPED THEM UP
OUT EAST DELAYING THE COOLER AIR TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE FRONT
MOVES EAST.
AS FOR HYDRO...HEADWATERS OF THE NEW AND ROANOKE ARE CRESTING OR
COMING DOWN. SOME RISES EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM ON THE NEW...ROANOKE
AND DAN RIVERS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT FLOODING THREAT IS MARGINAL.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RANDOLPH AS IT MAY GET CLOSE TO ITS
21 FOOT FLOOD STAGE.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEED MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS PER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND SHARP DROP IN 850 MB
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GIVEN ONLY 40 KTS AT 850 MB...JET WILL
HOLD JUST BELOW WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS RIGHT NEAR DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THERE IS A HEALTHY 4 TO 6 MB SIX HOUR PRESSURE
RISE...BUT FOR A SHORT WINDOW. A VERY FAMILIAR COLD ADVECTION
CLOUD COVER PATTERN EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOME SPILLOVER LOW
CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND CLEAR OUT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH SOME LINGERING MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS CLEAR. NIGHTLY TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY BECAUSE OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...LIGHT WINDS...
AND VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE KEPT
RELATIVELY THE SAME WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY.
EXPECTING A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DUE
TO VERY DRY AIR MASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
POOR MODEL CONSENSUS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOWS THE ECMWF MOVING
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST NEARLY A DAY
BEFORE THE GFS. A LATER ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WAS
FAVORED ALONG WITH THE WPC TIMING WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...LINGERING UNTIL WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM DAILY
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NOTING MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
EASTERN TROUGHING CAUSED US TO RAISE POPS BETWEEN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING
BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL
OCCUR AT ROA/LYH/DAN BEFORE CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS OCCURS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FURTHER WEST...WILL SEE INCREASING UPSLOPE WINDS
WHICH WILL KEEP OR BRING CIGS BACK TO MVFR AT BLF/LWB AND BCB IN
THE 00Z-04Z TIME FRAME. THINK BCB WILL KEEP MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE MIXING LIFTS THE CLOUD BASES TO LOW END VFR. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY IMPACT BLF/LWB AS WELL...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANY RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY HERE.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT LEAST TONIGHT FROM ROA WEST...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE
NC MTNS/FAR SW VA MTNS...SUCH AS GEV/MKJ...AND HSP...BUT THE TAF
SITES SHOULD STAY BELOW 30 KTS.
AS THE DAY COMMENCES THURSDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP AT LYH/DAN WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS.
OVERALL...EXPECT CONTINUED MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB THROUGH
THURSDAY...THOUGH SHOULD SEE LWB SCOUR OUT BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE GOING TO SUBSIDE AS WELL BY SUNSET.
MEDIUM TO HIGH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND
WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AT BLF BEFORE DRIER AIR
CLEARS IT OUT. OTHERWISE....HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHY EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FRI AND
SAT MORNING DUE TO MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS FROM RECENT
RAINFALL...AT LWB/BCB ESPECIALLY.
BY MONDAY...THE HIGH EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THANKS TO UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS KY/TN. THIS MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA...AND MAYBE SOME SHOWERS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1255 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE
DAY AGAIN...BUT WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A SLOW
RISE IN TEMPERATURES. MOIST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A
COUPLE MORE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE RAINFALL
TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A FINAL ROUND OF RAIN BEFORE FINALLY
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND IT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM EST TUESDAY...
LATEST WAVE OF PRECIP OVERRUNNING COLD WEDGE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MORE MODERATE PRECIP RATES
SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF ABOUT THE U.S. 460 LINE AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT
SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY BE LEFT BEHIND SO
ONLY LOWERING POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY SOUTH OF THIS WAVE. ANOTHER
WAVE PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS IN
CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA BY MIDDAY BUT MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. THUS EAST OF ABOUT INTERSTATE 81 MAY SEE ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TIME HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW
RUNOFF ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT BEFORE NEXT WAVE OF
RAIN MOVES IN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING FROM THE WEST.
RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE PRETTY DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP AND
TIMING OF THESE WAVES TODAY IT APPEARS.
MEANWHILE...THE OTHER ISSUE TODAY IS HOW LONG THE WEDGE WILL HANG
ON...AND ALL GUIDANCE INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WITH GOOD
HANDLE ON TERRAIN AND GOOD VERTICAL RESOLUTION SUGGEST IT ERODES
BY MIDDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY AFTERNOON. THIS DUE TO FAIRLY
GOOD SW WINDS AT TOP OF THE WEDGE AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
INTO WEDGE AND LOSS OF DRY ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST AS SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. HARD TO GO TOO STRONGLY
AGAINST THESE HIGH RES...BUT DID LEAN MORE TOWARD COOLER AND
SLOWER EROSION OF WEDGE IN FAR NORTHEAST AREAS SUCH AS LYH...AND
KEEP TEMPS PRETTY STEADY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE
ONLY SLOWLY RISING. NO SUNSHINE EXPECTED BUT BY AFTERNOON THE
CEILINGS WILL LIFT SOMEWHAT WHILE PRECIP TAKES A SHORT BREAK MOST
AREAS...UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY WEST AND
SPREADS EAST BY LATE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...PRECIP INCREASES IN MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL NOT CROSS OVER APPALACHIANS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE GOOD SLUG OF RAINFALL BY
MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...WITH FOCUS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF BLUE
RIDGE...AND CONCERN IS MUCH OF THIS WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL SINCE LATE SUNDAY. THE CURRENT
FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD...WITH ANOTHER ONE AND A HALF TO
TWO INCHES EXPECTED IN PARTS OF NW NC AND FOOTHILL REGION THROUGH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND AT LEAST ONE AND HALF UP THROUGH THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG BLUE RIDGE. THIS COULD EASILY BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SOME STREAMS COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS BY EARLY WED
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO WED. TEMPERATURES TUES NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR MAY EVEN SLOWLY
RISE...ESPECIALLY IN PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE DRIVING A WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE DYNAMIC
FORCING IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS SATURATED THANKS TO SEVERAL DAYS OF
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE
END RESULT WILL BE A BURST OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING ONE
INCH FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO VA FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON
TARGET AND CURRENTLY DO NOT SEE A REASON TO EXPAND THE AREA OF
CONCERN...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEAR TERM RAINFALL TRENDS TO
SEE IF AN EXPANSION BECOMES NECESSARY.
ONCE WE GET BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND GENERATE SOME
UPSLOPE RAIN/TO/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH SOME LOCATION MAY SEE A
DUSTING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND BRING US FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS ANY REMNANTS
OF THE WEDGE VANISH...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S EAST OF THE
RIDGE/MIDDLE 50S WEST WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CONDITIONS
MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER
50S EAST/MIDDLE 40S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...
A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB PATTERN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
BUT OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DIFFER IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION
OF THIS FEATURE. DESPITE THIS WEAKNESS...OVERALL 500MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE
IN THE EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECTED DRY
WEATHER THROUGH DAY 6 THEN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGS A PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST TUESDAY...
STRONG WEDGE BUT SHALLOW WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR VISIBILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH
00Z/7PM. RAIN WILL AGAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
00Z/7PM WITH CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS LOWERING TO LIFR LEVELS AND
VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO AT LEAST MVFR. HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN
WILL RESULT IN LOWER...LIKELY IFR VISIBILITIES. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE HIGH IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
12Z/7AM ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z ON WEDNESDAY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. CONFIDENCE
LOWER ON HOW FAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT THIS TIME...12Z
MODELS SUGGEST NO IMPROVEMENT TO VFR UNTIL AFTER 18Z/1PM.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY IMPROVE TO IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
AND TO THE EAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR IN UPSLOPE
AREAS AT KBLF AND KLWB WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BEHIND FRONT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER PATCHY EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT MORNING DUE TO MOIST GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND INCLUDING THE NC FOOTHILLS. THIS
AREA STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE AND A HALF TO
TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
OF THIS REGION...AND ALL ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL GO INTO RUNOFF AT
THIS POINT.
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY RISE ABOVE BANKFULL. LOW WATER
CROSSING AND POOR DRAINING AREAS IN URBAN LOCATIONS MAY BE
FLOODED. TRIBUTARIES THAT FEED INTO THE YADKIN RIVER...THE
HEADWATERS OF THE NEW RIVER...THE ROANOKE...AND THE UPPER DAN
RIVER MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ON THE DAN AND ROANOKE RIVERS WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-010-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/SK
HYDROLOGY...KK/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
716 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE
DAY AGAIN...BUT WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A SLOW
RISE IN TEMPERATURES. MOIST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A
COUPLE MORE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE RAINFALL
TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A FINAL ROUND OF RAIN BEFORE FINALLY
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND IT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM EST TUESDAY...
LATEST WAVE OF PRECIP OVERRUNNING COLD WEDGE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MORE MODERATE PRECIP RATES
SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF ABOUT THE U.S. 460 LINE AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT
SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY BE LEFT BEHIND SO
ONLY LOWERING POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY SOUTH OF THIS WAVE. ANOTHER
WAVE PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS IN
CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA BY MIDDAY BUT MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. THUS EAST OF ABOUT INTERSTATE 81 MAY SEE ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TIME HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW
RUNOFF ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT BEFORE NEXT WAVE OF
RAIN MOVES IN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING FROM THE WEST.
RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE PRETTY DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP AND
TIMING OF THESE WAVES TODAY IT APPEARS.
MEANWHILE...THE OTHER ISSUE TODAY IS HOW LONG THE WEDGE WILL HANG
ON...AND ALL GUIDANCE INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WITH GOOD
HANDLE ON TERRAIN AND GOOD VERTICAL RESOLUTION SUGGEST IT ERODES
BY MIDDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY AFTERNOON. THIS DUE TO FAIRLY
GOOD SW WINDS AT TOP OF THE WEDGE AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
INTO WEDGE AND LOSS OF DRY ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST AS SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. HARD TO GO TOO STRONGLY
AGAINST THESE HIGH RES...BUT DID LEAN MORE TOWARD COOLER AND
SLOWER EROSION OF WEDGE IN FAR NORTHEAST AREAS SUCH AS LYH...AND
KEEP TEMPS PRETTY STEADY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE
ONLY SLOWLY RISING. NO SUNSHINE EXPECTED BUT BY AFTERNOON THE
CEILINGS WILL LIFT SOMEWHAT WHILE PRECIP TAKES A SHORT BREAK MOST
AREAS...UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY WEST AND
SPREADS EAST BY LATE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...PRECIP INCREASES IN MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL NOT CROSS OVER APPALACHIANS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE GOOD SLUG OF RAINFALL BY
MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...WITH FOCUS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF BLUE
RIDGE...AND CONCERN IS MUCH OF THIS WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL SINCE LATE SUNDAY. THE CURRENT
FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD...WITH ANOTHER ONE AND A HALF TO
TWO INCHES EXPECTED IN PARTS OF NW NC AND FOOTHILL REGION THROUGH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND AT LEAST ONE AND HALF UP THROUGH THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG BLUE RIDGE. THIS COULD EASILY BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SOME STREAMS COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS BY EARLY WED
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO WED. TEMPERATURES TUES NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR MAY EVEN SLOWLY
RISE...ESPECIALLY IN PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE DRIVING A WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE DYNAMIC
FORCING IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS SATURATED THANKS TO SEVERAL DAYS OF
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE
END RESULT WILL BE A BURST OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING ONE
INCH FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO VA FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON
TARGET AND CURRENTLY DO NOT SEE A REASON TO EXPAND THE AREA OF
CONCERN...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEAR TERM RAINFALL TRENDS TO
SEE IF AN EXPANSION BECOMES NECESSARY.
ONCE WE GET BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND GENERATE SOME
UPSLOPE RAIN/TO/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH SOME LOCATION MAY SEE A
DUSTING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND BRING US FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS ANY REMNANTS
OF THE WEDGE VANISH...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S EAST OF THE
RIDGE/MIDDLE 50S WEST WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CONDITIONS
MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER
50S EAST/MIDDLE 40S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...
A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB PATTERN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
BUT OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DIFFER IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION
OF THIS FEATURE. DESPITE THIS WEAKNESS...OVERALL 500MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE
IN THE EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECTED DRY
WEATHER THROUGH DAY 6 THEN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGS A PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM EST TUESDAY...
WITH WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TO MID AFTERNOON...IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF BREAKS TO MVFR CEILINGS AS WEDGE SLOWLY
MIXES OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THAT MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPS CONDITIONS IFR FOR ALL TAF SITES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAT KLYH WILL MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS SINCE THE
WEDGE IS DEEPEST THERE AND MAY NOT MIX AS MUCH UNTIL EVENING...AT
WHICH TIME CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER ONCE AGAIN TO IFR BY 23Z TO 01Z.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN TO THE WEST
BY LATE MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING TO REACH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE RAIN MAY BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO BRING BOTH
CEILINGS AND VSBYS EVEN LOWER TO LIFR LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE HIGH IN WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST
SLOWLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN ABOUT 5 KTS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY BUT AHEAD OF
THAT ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY EXTENDING IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL
FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN NORTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR IN
UPSLOPE AREAS AT KBLF AND KLWB MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURS MORNING
BEHIND FRONT. ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER PATCHY
EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FRI AND
SAT MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS FROM
RECENT RAINFALL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND INCLUDING THE NC FOOTHILLS. THIS
AREA STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE AND A HALF TO
TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
OF THIS REGION...AND ALL ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL GO INTO RUNOFF AT
THIS POINT.
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY RISE ABOVE BANKFULL. LOW WATER
CROSSING AND POOR DRAINING AREAS IN URBAN LOCATIONS MAY BE
FLOODED. TRIBUTARIES THAT FEED INTO THE YADKIN RIVER...THE
HEADWATERS OF THE NEW RIVER...THE ROANOKE...AND THE UPPER DAN
RIVER MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ON THE DAN AND ROANOKE RIVERS WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
VAZ007-009-010-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...KK/SK/WP
HYDROLOGY...KK/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
436 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE
DAY AGAIN...BUT WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A SLOW
RISE IN TEMPERATURES. MOIST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A
COUPLE MORE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE RAINFALL
TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A FINAL ROUND OF RAIN BEFORE FINALLY
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND IT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM EST TUESDAY...
LATEST WAVE OF PRECIP OVERRUNNING COLD WEDGE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MORE MODERATE PRECIP RATES
SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF ABOUT THE U.S. 460 LINE AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT
SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY BE LEFT BEHIND SO
ONLY LOWERING POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY SOUTH OF THIS WAVE. ANOTHER
WAVE PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS IN
CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA BY MIDDAY BUT MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. THUS EAST OF ABOUT INTERSTATE 81 MAY SEE ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TIME HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW
RUNOFF ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT BEFORE NEXT WAVE OF
RAIN MOVES IN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING FROM THE WEST.
RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE PRETTY DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP AND
TIMING OF THESE WAVES TODAY IT APPEARS.
MEANWHILE...THE OTHER ISSUE TODAY IS HOW LONG THE WEDGE WILL HANG
ON...AND ALL GUIDANCE INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WITH GOOD
HANDLE ON TERRAIN AND GOOD VERTICAL RESOLUTION SUGGEST IT ERODES
BY MIDDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY AFTERNOON. THIS DUE TO FAIRLY
GOOD SW WINDS AT TOP OF THE WEDGE AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
INTO WEDGE AND LOSS OF DRY ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST AS SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. HARD TO GO TOO STRONGLY
AGAINST THESE HIGH RES...BUT DID LEAN MORE TOWARD COOLER AND
SLOWER EROSION OF WEDGE IN FAR NORTHEAST AREAS SUCH AS LYH...AND
KEEP TEMPS PRETTY STEADY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE
ONLY SLOWLY RISING. NO SUNSHINE EXPECTED BUT BY AFTERNOON THE
CEILINGS WILL LIFT SOMEWHAT WHILE PRECIP TAKES A SHORT BREAK MOST
AREAS...UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY WEST AND
SPREADS EAST BY LATE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...PRECIP INCREASES IN MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL NOT CROSS OVER APPALACHIANS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE GOOD SLUG OF RAINFALL BY
MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...WITH FOCUS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF BLUE
RIDGE...AND CONCERN IS MUCH OF THIS WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL SINCE LATE SUNDAY. THE CURRENT
FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD...WITH ANOTHER ONE AND A HALF TO
TWO INCHES EXPECTED IN PARTS OF NW NC AND FOOTHILL REGION THROUGH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND AT LEAST ONE AND HALF UP THROUGH THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG BLUE RIDGE. THIS COULD EASILY BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SOME STREAMS COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS BY EARLY WED
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO WED. TEMPERATURES TUES NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR MAY EVEN SLOWLY
RISE...ESPECIALLY IN PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE DRIVING A WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE DYNAMIC
FORCING IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS SATURATED THANKS TO SEVERAL DAYS OF
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE
END RESULT WILL BE A BURST OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING ONE
INCH FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO VA FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON
TARGET AND CURRENTLY DO NOT SEE A REASON TO EXPAND THE AREA OF
CONCERN...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEAR TERM RAINFALL TRENDS TO
SEE IF AN EXPANSION BECOMES NECESSARY.
ONCE WE GET BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND GENERATE SOME
UPSLOPE RAIN/TO/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH SOME LOCATION MAY SEE A
DUSTING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND BRING US FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS ANY REMNANTS
OF THE WEDGE VANISH...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S EAST OF THE
RIDGE/MIDDLE 50S WEST WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CONDITIONS
MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER
50S EAST/MIDDLE 40S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...
A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB PATTERN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
BUT OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DIFFER IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION
OF THIS FEATURE. DESPITE THIS WEAKNESS...OVERALL 500MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE
IN THE EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECTED DRY
WEATHER THROUGH DAY 6 THEN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGS A PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST MONDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITION EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LOW CLOUDS...RAIN AND DRIZZLE...THOUGH SOME BREAK IN THE RAINFALL
MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-18Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SMALL WINDOW
IS MEDIUM. NONETHELESS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL IFR OR WORSE.
HEAVIER RAINS WILL START TO MOVE TOWARD BLF/LWB BY LATE TUE
NIGHT...BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TEMPORARILY TUES NIGHT AS THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH BEFORE A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SOME RELATIVELY BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL
FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN NW FLOW...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR IN UPSLOPE
AREAS AT KBLF AND KLWB MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURS MORNING BEHIND
FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND INCLUDING THE NC FOOTHILLS. THIS
AREA STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE AND A HALF TO
TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
OF THIS REGION...AND ALL ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL GO INTO RUNOFF AT
THIS POINT.
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY RISE ABOVE BANKFULL. LOW WATER
CROSSING AND POOR DRAINING AREAS IN URBAN LOCATIONS MAY BE
FLOODED. TRIBUTARIES THAT FEED INTO THE YADKIN RIVER...THE
HEADWATERS OF THE NEW RIVER...THE ROANOKE...AND THE UPPER DAN
RIVER MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ON THE DAN AND ROANOKE RIVERS WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
VAZ007-009-010-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...KK/SK/WP
HYDROLOGY...KK/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
547 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND FOG POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
LOOP OF WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW CENTER
OF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...LINGERING DEFORMATION CLOUD COVER HANGING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S.
FOR TONIGHT...MODELS AND SYNTHETIC LOW CLOUD/FOG IMAGERY SHOW A SLOW
WEST TO EAST CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER //BASICALLY UP TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE// AS THE LOW PULLS EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS CLEARING WILL PROVIDE FOR SEASONALLY CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IN THE TEENS...WHILE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE RIVER UNDER MORE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED SETTLE INTO THE MIDDLE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE INCREASED
SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO A FEW LOWER
40S. THIS WILL MELT MOST OF THE SNOW THAT FELL THE LAST COUPLE DAY.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN WHAT IMPACT ALL THAT MELTED SNOW WILL HAVE ON
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
ARE DRY...SREF SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUD/FOG GIVEN THE
DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FOR
NOW...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE
WHAT TOMORROW BRINGS AS FAR AS DEW POINT RESPONSE TO THE SNOW MELT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
FOG POTENTIAL FRIDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT
ARE THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRIDAY MORNING AS THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
FOG POTENTIAL...BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS KICK IN FOR MIXING...SUNSHINE SHOULD BE AMPLE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. GFS/NAM SHOWING 925MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO 6-8C BY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS AT THE SURFACE IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY BY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
PLANS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 40S.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW-
LEVEL/0.5KM MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA FOR AN
INCREASE IN STRATUS CLOUD COVER. THE GFS ALSO SHOWING DECENT/DEEP850-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. ADDED A LIGHT CHANCE MENTION
FOR NOW.
LOOKS QUIET/MILD THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS STORM TRACK
REMAINS WELL NORTH INTO CANADA. PLAN ON HIGHS REMAINING NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BETWEEN 03.12Z AND 03.16Z. SREF
SUGGESTS THAT MVFR FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
ONE THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS THAT NAM MOS AND GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER THE
SKIES CLEAR AT KRST AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL JUST CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND IN THE
MODELS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
502 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
ONCE THE SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDS TOMORROW...QUIET AND
MILD EARLY-WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM WL REMAIN SPLIT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
BEYOND...WITH A DOMINANT NRN STREAM ACRS CANADA...AND A WEAKER SRN
STREAM ACROS THE SRN CONUS. ONCE THE GRADUALLY WEAKENING REMNANTS
OF SRN STREAM UPR TROF SHIFT OFF TO THE E LATE TOMORROW...THE
FCST AREA WL PRETTY MUCH REMAIN BETWEEN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE
FLOW. THAT FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT AND BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAVE SHIFTED NORTH INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
DRIZZLE ALSO MIXED IN AS WELL...MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE
MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 09Z. WRAP AROUND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LOW AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
TROUBLE REMAINING SATURATED BELOW 700MB...WHICH WOULD INDICATE MORE
OF A SPOTTY/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER THREAT. OBS ARE ALSO SHOWING
UNKNOWN PRECIP IN SPOTS OVER IOWA...WHICH COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SO WILL INCLUDE BOTH LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OF EITHER. A FEW
SPOTS COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF SNOW. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
WEST TO NEAR 30 BY THE LAKE.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THU. THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT WITH THE UPPER LOW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL MAINTAIN BROKEN CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD TEMPS UNDER
THE UPPER LOW CALLS FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
ANY LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE N SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING...
WITH CLDS PROBABLY LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
DECREASING. TEMPERATURES WL REMAIN ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BASED TEMPS ON A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS...TWEAKED TOWARD THOSE PRODUCTS THAT HAVE PERFORMED WELL
LATELY.
NO SIG CHGS TO THE EXTENDED FCST GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD-BASED
BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 502 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
EARLY THIS EVENING...CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO FALL AGAIN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW TONIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT
ACCUMULATE MUCH...BUT COULD DROP VSBYS TO IFR BRIEFLY. BETTER
CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL WI RATHER THAN FARTHER EAST. THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE
OUT WED AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS START TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1132 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
STILL QUITE THE CHALLENGING FORECAST HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM A PRECIPITATION TYPE STANDPOINT...WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY WILL PLAY INTO JUST HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS IN ANY GIVEN
AREA. AS WELL DISCUSSED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE BEST RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN/FAR NORTHERN
CWA WHILE OTHER SPOTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE DEAL WITH AN
ENCROACHING WARM NOSE. THAT FEATURE IS PLAINLY EVIDENT ON THE 12Z
QUAD CITIES RAOB...WITH A NOSE OF ABOUT +4C CENTERED ON 800MB. AS IS
USUAL IN THESE DEVELOPING NEGATIVE TILT/TROWAL FEATURE SETUPS...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO UNDERPLAY THE WARM NOSE...WITH EVEN THE MOST
RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP FAILING TO CAPTURE THE TRUE DEGREE OF THAT
FEATURE. WE`RE ONLY TALKING 1-2C OF DIFFERENCE...BUT THAT MAKES A
HUGE DIFFERENCE WHEN IT COMES TO PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.
SO...WHAT`S MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN? APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
SHARP UPTICK IN MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASCENT
WILL SWING ANOTHER BAND OR TWO OF PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...INCREASINGLY CHASED NORTHWARD BY
THE APPROACH OF A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. AS EXPECTED THE
PAST FEW DAYS...SUSPECT THIS PRECIP WILL LARGELY FALL AS A COLD RAIN
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SOME SLEET
AT TIMES WITH ENOUGH OF A COLD DOME AROUND -2C BELOW 850MB BUT WITH
SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MITIGATING ANY BIG IMPACTS. FARTHER
NORTH...SAY ROUGHLY NORTH AND WEST OF A NEILLSVILLE WI TO WINONA MN
TO DODGE CENTER IA LINE...LOOKING FOR MORE OF A MESSY MIX...WITH MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGING FROM ABOUT 1.5C TO AS LOW AS -1C...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR WEST. SOME CONVECTIVE
COMPONENT TO THE PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO THE
SITUATION WITH HINTS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES CROSSING THE AREA FOR A
TIME ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT. ALL TOLD...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SLOPPY WET SNOW TO FALL WHERE ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A NARROW DGZ AND QUITE "WARM"
THERMAL PROFILE.
STILL HAVE TO WONDER IF THERE COULD BE A NARROW WINDOW ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR QUICKLY WRAPS
BACK IN TO GIVEN A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW TO AREAS FARTHER EAST.
HOWEVER...WE SHOULD TREND QUICKLY TOWARD MAYBE A LITTLE DRIZZLE OR
EVEN NO PRECIP AT ALL WITHIN THE DRY SLOT WITH A LACK OF ANY ICE IN
THE CLOUD BUT SATURATION HANGING AROUND UP TO 700MB BEFORE CRASHING
BELOW 850MB OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. THEN AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP IN ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE
CLOSED LOW DRIFTS OVERHEAD...WE SHOULD SEE A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
FILTER BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH REALLY WONDER IF NORTHERN
AREAS SEE NOTHING MUCH AT ALL THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN HOW WRAPPED UP
THE SYSTEM IS WITH THE DRY SLOW WRAPPING NORTH ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR. A FEW BATCHES OF LIGHT LINGERING SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOULD
WORK BACK THROUGH THE REGION RIGHT ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PROBABLY EVEN WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH MORE
CLOUD COVER STICKING AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DEPARTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
A WELL-DESERVED BREAK FOR US FORECASTERS INTO LATE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DOWNRIGHT AWESOME WEATHER FOR EARLY DECEMBER
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
STEADFAST AGREEMENT WITH A RETURN TO BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE
PLAINS/MID CONUS THROUGH LATE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. THAT FEATURE
MAY MAKE A RUN AT OUR AREA SOMETIME LATER IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH A NOTABLE LACK OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS THE GULF EFFECTIVELY REMAINS CLOSED. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO VERY SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE ENTIRE
REGION RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SETTING UP BROADENING RETURN
FLOW TOWARD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE PATTERN SETUP...HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING ANY REASON TO
HAVE ANY CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST...WITH JUST SOME FANTASTIC LATE
FALL WEATHER AS DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY REBOUND THROUGH
THE 30S AND LIKELY INTO THE 40S FOR SNOW-FREE AREAS BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
INITIALLY BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WHERE SNOW COVER RESIDES...BUT
SHOULD OTHERWISE HOLD WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. ABOUT THE ONLY POSSIBLE "FLY IN THE
OINTMENT" WOULD BE ANY PESKY FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BY
THE WEEKEND AS WE MELT SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS...BUT OBVIOUSLY
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS VERY LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SNOW AT KRST...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
NORTH OF THE TAF AIRFIELDS. AT THE SAME TIME...CEILINGS WILL DROP
INTO THE IFR RANGE WITH MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN MIST.
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
WIZ017-029-032>034.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
MNZ079-086-087-094-095.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
IAZ008-009-018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1045 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
PRIMARILY SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
POSITIVE UPR HEIGHT ANOMALY MIGRATING EWD ACRS CANADA WL KEEP THE
FLOW ACRS NOAM SPLIT THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD. A STG SRN STREAM
UPR LOW CROSSING THE RGN WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THAT SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY SIG PCPN PRODUCER AS
FOR THE MOST PART...THE FORECAST AREA WL REMAIN BETWEEN THE NRN
AND SRN STREAMS DURING THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WL PROBABLY END UP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD. THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WL KEEP COLD AIR BOTTLED UP
WAY N OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN ABV NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND PART OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. ELONGATED BUT FAIRLY WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...GENERALLY ABOVE 6KFT...IS PUSHING IN LIGHT SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI. A DECENT FEED OF
VERY DRY AIR AOB 850MB IS CAUSING THESE SHOWERS TO DRY UP AS THEY
REACH THE ROUTE 29 CORRIDOR. A MORE WIDESPREAD BAND OF
PRECIPITATION IS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MN AND
IOWA...BUT THINNING OUT OVER MISSOURI. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...PRECIP TIMING/TYPE/AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WITH ITS OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN TO
SOUTHEAST WI BY LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MOVING NORTHWARD WILL IMPACT MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI
AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY BAND OF RAIN. EXPECT THE DRY FEED OF LOW LEVEL
AIR TO WIN OUT GENERALLY NORTH OF A STRUGEON BAY TO TOMAHAWK LINE.
THEN THE PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIP WILL PUSH FROM SW TO NE LATE IN THE
EVENING TO OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A WARM TONGUE OF AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800MB WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST WITH THE BAND OF PRECIP. WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...ALL SORTS OF PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AS THE
MORE STEADY PRECIP ARRIVES. COLDER SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND N-C WI SUPPORT MAINLY A SNOW-SLEET
MIX...WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN WITHIN THE WARM WEDGE OF AIR. THE
SREF HAS LOW PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING
IN THESE AREAS...SO REMAINED CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS BY KEEPING THEM
STEADY NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT. BECAUSE PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY BE
CHANGING FREQUENTLY...THINK ANY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL REACH
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST THANKS TO A SOUTHEAST WIND COMING OFF THE LAKE.
TUESDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES. THE AIR LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO
SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE EXITING CENTRAL WI AS THIS
OCCURS...BUT N-C WISCONSIN COULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2
INCHES...BRINGING THE TOTAL TO AROUND 2-3 INCHES. THE MORNING
COMMUTE MAY BECOME RATHER SLOPPY...AND WILL ADDRESS THIS IMPACT WITH
AN SPS. AS THE PRECIP PULLS OUT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...A DRY SLOT WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD. THERE MAY BE SOME
DRIZZLE WITHIN THIS DRY SLOT...BUT KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STARTS TO INTRUDE INTO CENTRAL WI DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN PRECIP CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE
AGAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
REMNANTS OF UPR LOW WL SLOWLY EDGE EWD ACRS THE AREA TUE NGT AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO FALL AS
SNOW...THOUGH THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE ALL THAT MUCH PCPN LEFT.
PCPN MAY COME DOWN TO MESOSCALE BANDS OF SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH SML
DISTURBANCES ROTG ARND THE UPR SYSTEM. THOSE COULD AFFECT JUST
ABOUT ANY LOCATION IN THE FCST AREA. THERE IS PERHAPS A LITTLE
BETTER CHC OF SHSN ACRS E-C WI LATE TUE NGT INTO WED MORNING AS
BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM INDICATE THAT REGION GETTING CLIPPED BY AN
AREA OF QG FORCING LIFTG NEWD TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. RAISED POPS
SOME IN E-C WI TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...THOUGH DID NOT
WANT ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT SHSN IN THE FCST AT THIS POINT.
THE SPLIT UPR FLOW WL LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF QUIET WX
ONCE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. NO SIG CHGS TO THE EXTENDED FCST GRIDS
BASED ON A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN TAF
SITES TONIGHT...WITH MORE RAIN OVER THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS HAVE HUNG IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW THIS SHOULD COME TO AN ABRUPT HALT AS
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN OVER
TO ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z. SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY...POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES. AFTER THE LOW PASSES...THERE WILL
BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH THE
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TUESDAY
EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
322 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
Main short-term forecast concern will be sky cover and its impact on
high temperatures today. 09z/3am IR satellite imagery shows a large
area of low clouds covering Wisconsin, the eastern half of Iowa,
into northern Missouri and western Illinois. The leading edge of
the clouds is currently along the Illinois River and pushing slowly
southeastward. Based on satellite timing tools...the clouds will
reach the I-55 corridor by 12z/6am, then will continue to spread
further east and south as the morning progresses. Models are not
handling the current cloud field particularly well, with the GFS
completely missing it and going with a mostly clear forecast today.
Even the NAM tends to aggressively scatter the clouds during the
morning, despite the presence of a strengthening subsidence
inversion. Meanwhile, the HRRR hangs on to the low clouds through
the entire day. Think the actual solution will be somewhere in
between...as upstream PIREPS from eastern Iowa reveal a cloud depth
of only around 1000 feet. Despite low sun angle, think shallow
cloud deck will gradually erode by mid to late afternoon. Overall
forecast will be mostly cloudy across much of the area, with
mostly sunny conditions prevailing along/south of I-70 where cloud
deck will never arrive. Even with some late afternoon sunshine,
temperatures will be held down quite a bit. Have therefore
undercut the MAV guidance by several degrees, with afternoon highs
remaining in the lower to middle 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
Quiet weather will prevail throughout the extended, with the only
weather feature of note passing through the region with little
fanfare Sunday into Monday. Before that system arrives, rising
upper heights and light southerly winds on the back side of strong
surface high pressure will yield an unseasonably warm weekend with
temperatures rising at least 10 degrees above normal for this time
of year. With abundant sunshine, highs on Saturday will climb into
the lower to middle 50s. MEX guidance even suggests some upper 50s
will be possible across the area. Temperatures will drop a few
degrees back into the upper 40s/lower 50s on Sunday as a short-wave
trough approaches from the west and spreads clouds into the area.
Models are now in fairly good agreement with the timing of this
system, with both the GFS and ECMWF bringing it through central
Illinois on Sunday. Due to an initially very dry airmass beneath
sprawling high pressure, the wave will have little moisture to
work with. The GFS tries to develop a few showers, but am quite
skeptical at this point. Will therefore only include slight
chance PoPs for showers across the western half of the CWA on
Sunday, then across the E/SE Sunday night. After that, a return
to warm and dry weather is anticipated through mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
Skies will be clear at all sites to start the TAF forecast.
However, as seen on satellite, an area of MVFR clouds is moving in
from the north and west. Believe, based on satellite trends and
HRRR forecast, that these clouds will advect over the sites
beginning at 09z at PIA and then move eastward, reaching CMI at
13z. With this low level moisture trapped beneath the strong
inversion of the high pressure area moving into the area
overnight, thinking is that the clouds will remain over the area
through the day and into the afternoon. Low sun angle will not
help either. Based on positioning of ridge, once that arrives into
the area, the clearing will begin. So have scattering of the
clouds beginning at PIA/DEC/SPI at 23z and then CMI/BMI at 00z.
Then have clearing of the skies about 3-4 hrs later. Winds will
remain light through the period, but begin out of the west to
northwest and then become more southeast or light and variable
during the evening hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1146 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
Have updated once already to reflect pcpn trends. Will be needing
another update to finish pcpn in the southeast and then try to
reflect the correct trend in the cloud cover remainder of the
night. This will be a challenge given the clear skies in the west,
the partly to mostly cloudy skies in the east, and then the
possible trend of more clouds moving into the west from IA/MO
later tonight. Satellite trends and new model data are being
monitored to see how much arrives and when. Another issue is
possible light fog overnight in the clear areas. HiRes models
indicate no fog issues overnight while Bufkit data shows some. For
now will leave out of gridded forecast. Update will be out
shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
Our large upper low was located near Chicago at mid afternoon. Last
of the surface boundaries rotating around the low extended from
about Rantoul to Taylorville on the most recent observations, with
the snow quickly tapering off west of it. Most accumulations have
been minor as temperatures remained above freezing, but some
localized reports around an inch were received mainly along and
north of I-74. Most of this precipitation should be out of the
forecast area by 6 pm, but will carry some low PoP`s near the
Indiana border until about mid evening.
Clearing trends behind the low will be a bit tricky. Large area of
clearing was dropping southward across Iowa with some breaks in west
central and northwest Illinois. However, clouds were still more
extensive across Wisconsin. NAM humidity plots quickly scour this
out over our area by mid evening, but the RAP is much slower with a
more persistent inversion around 2500 feet. Followed a more slow
trend with the sky grids for the cloud breakup, with skies partly
cloudy by midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
The upper low will depart well to the east of Illinois on Thursday,
as ridging builds into the Midwest. Surface high pressure and much
drier air will provide quiet weather for the remainder of the week
and first half of the weekend. Clouds will clear out on Thursday,
with increasing sunshine and southerly winds fueling a warming
trend through Saturday. Highs on Thursday will reach the low to
mid 40s, but temps will climb into the low 50s by Saturday.
A relatively zonal flow will continue into next week, but there
remains differences in timing of the next wave coming out of the
Plains. The ECMWF remains progressive with the next low, bringing it
into IL on Sunday and east of IL by Monday afternoon. The GFS and
Canadian show a slower solution, with somewhat of a cut-off period
for the upper low before it passes by to the south of Illinois late
Monday and Monday night. The forecast for Sunday through Monday
night was left relatively dry, with only slight chance PoPs south of
I-70 on Sunday night, and south of our counties south of highway 50
on Monday. Any precipitation should fall as rain, with the
temperatures remaining at or above normal during that time.
Another trough of low pressure could approach for Wednesday, per the
GFS, but the ECMWF keeps that system north of IL. The overall theme
looks to be for temps at or above normal, with lows in the low to
mid 30s and highs in the upper 40s to around 50 from Monday to
Wednesday next week, along with minimal precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
Skies will be clear at all sites to start the TAF forecast.
However, as seen on satellite, an area of MVFR clouds is moving in
from the north and west. Believe, based on satellite trends and
HRRR forecast, that these clouds will advect over the sites
beginning at 09z at PIA and then move eastward, reaching CMI at
13z. With this low level moisture trapped beneath the strong
inversion of the high pressure area moving into the area
overnight, thinking is that the clouds will remain over the area
through the day and into the afternoon. Low sun angle will not
help either. Based on positioning of ridge, once that arrives into
the area, the clearing will begin. So have scattering of the
clouds beginning at PIA/DEC/SPI at 23z and then CMI/BMI at 00z.
Then have clearing of the skies about 3-4 hrs later. Winds will
remain light through the period, but begin out of the west to
northwest and then become more southeast or light and variable
during the evening hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1126 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1126 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
Aviation update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 214 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
It appears the GFS is/has been modeling the low layer cloud
field/embedded pcpn pertaining to the wrap around spiral bands
rotating south of the Low track today. A close examination of the
GFS20 vs the NAM12 Modeled Sounding data reveals this in better
detail, and the net effect will be a sliver of isolated pops for
our northern most tier of counties/partial counties for snow
showers this evening/early night. Amounts should be minuscule and
melt upon grounding.
After tonight, dry/cold air advection more firmly overtakes the
entire atmospheric column, as surface High pressure anchors across
the Commonwealth. This will lead to 40s tmrw, again
Friday/approaching 50, with mainly upper half 20s/nr 30 each
night through the remainder of the work week.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
At the beginning of the extended period, high pressure at the sfc
and aloft over the PAH forecast area will begin to give way to srly
low level flow ahead of a developing mid level shrtwv trof.
The forward speed and evolution of the trof continues to be in
question by the med range models as it is shown to dive into the
central Plains midway through the weekend. Some model solutions
suggest an fast open wave (UKMET) and some favor a slower closed
low. The deterministic 12Z GFS had an especially srly, slow, and
deep solution, which affected the initialization blend all the way
into Tue. The GFS ensemble means even had a closed low in the data
by early Mon. WPC appeared to gravitate toward a faster, ensemble-
mean-dominated trend. Sfc reflection is limited, and it is an
educated guess as to what the sfc wind fields will look like from
Sun through Tue.
For this forecast package, due to timing/coverage uncertainty in the
pcpn fields, we will go with no more than slight chances of rain
showers for most of the region Sun through Mon, with just a sliver
of PoP remaining in the srn Pennyrile Mon night. This was only a
modest deviation from the initialization blend, in fact. Dry weather
is forecast beyond Mon night, with not a whole lot of change in the
near-seasonable temps with time.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1126 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
Expect mainly VFR conditions through daybreak with NW winds around 5
kts. Just a few passing clouds associated with an upper low moving
SE across the Ohio Valley. Should be mainly clear Thursday with
light winds.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1216 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015
A band of slightly heavier precipitation has moved into southern IN
now and will track ESE into north central KY over the next few
hours. Winds will briefly pick up with this precipitation with gusts
of 20-30 mph possible. Still maybe a chance for a very light dusting
of snow on elevated surfaces, but think most areas will see no
accumulation. Updated pops to increase them across portions of
southern IN and near the Ohio River with the band coming through.
Issued at 552 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015
Just a few showers are left over from the rounds of precipitation
that moved through this afternoon. There were multiple reports of
graupel with these showers and some areas across the Bluegrass could
still see some of this over the next hour or two. The next area of
precipitation to move in is currently located over southwestern IN
and east central IL. Thinking remains largely the same with this
moving into southern IN counties between 00-01Z. Models then have it
weakening as the evening goes on. Recent AMDAR soundings from SDF do
show steep low level lapse rates up to -10 to -11C so snow showers
will certainly be a possibility. However, do not expect anything but
a dusting at best and briefly reduced visibilities from this
activity.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015
Main forecast concern this period is precip type with showers
expected ahead of an upper low now dropping south-southeast across
northern Illinois. The center of this feature will be over the
central IL/IN border by 00Z, and model soundings continue to show
our north and northeast zones saturated just up to the dendritic
growth zone, especially the latest NAM. The GFS and RUC are not as
robust, but given possibility and the axis of coldest temperatures
aloft swinging through at that point have kept in the snow or rain
shower chances through the evening hours. Given breezy conditions,
would not be surprised to see some briefly lower vsby in any heavier
snow showers across our northeast.
High pressure will build in slowly from the west for Thursday and
Thursday night, making for temperatures a little below
normal...though skies will be sunnier compared to the last few days.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015
High pressure will be over us Friday and then just to our east
Saturday. For Sunday and upper low moves across the Central Plains.
Forecast models, not surprisingly, differ in timing of this low
moving towards our region, with the 00Z Euro and the latest GEM
showing it right over our longitude by Monday morning, whereas the
GFS slows the low down and moves it into Deep South. The first camp
would bring precip in here Sunday night, whereas the latter holds it
off until Monday night. The 00Z GEFS has a high spread toward the
Euro and GEM solution, so have to keep in some pops Sunday night.
After that system, and assuming the Euro/GEM solution is the correct
choice, the next system drops into the Central Plains Wednesday.
There should be enough distance between these two systems to
preclude precip chances advertised by the GFS (which given it`s
slower solution has the two phasing a little and keeping enough
moisture around to generater rain chances). Will go dry for
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1216 AM EST Thu Dec 3 2015
Early morning radar returns show lingering line of showers/snow
flurries pushing eastward across the region. This activity has
already cleared KSDF and KBWG and will primarily affect KLEX over the
next 2 hours or so. Given the rather sporadic nature of the band,
will keep VCSH in at KLEX for this issuance through 03/08Z.
Otherwise, expect MVFR ceilings to rise to VFR overnight at
KSDF/KBWG with skies becoming SKC by morning. Northwest winds of 8-
10kts will be possible with some gusts up to 18-20kts very early
this morning. Expect winds to diminish by 03/07-08Z at KSDF.
Over at KLEX, southwest winds will start off the TAF period and then
shift around to the northwest after 03/07-08Z.
Outlook for the day on Thursday, VFR ceilings and visibilities with
light northwesterly winds.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
445 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE BAY OF FUNDY THIS AFTERNOON THEN
TRACK ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL HEAVIEST SNFL
OVR N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA AFT RN CHGS TO SN FROM N TO S ACROSS
THE FA BEGINNING LATER THIS MORN AND CONTG INTO THE AFTN. SOME
MODELS LIKE THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS HINT AT TWO BANDS OF HEAVIER SNFL
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
SCOOTS FAIRLY QUICKLY ESE OVR CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA THIS
AFTN AND ERLY EVE. THIS RELATIVELY QUICK MOTION OF THE UPPER LOW
COULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF HVY SN BANDING OVR ANY PARTICULAR
LCTNS TO A FEW HRS...BUT THIS IS ALL IT TAKES TO REACH WRNG
CRITERIA SNFL IF SN RATES ARE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HR. SUBSEQUENTLY...
THE CORRIDOR ZONE OF HEAVIEST SNFL WE CURRENTLY SHOW COULD BE A
SIMPLIFICATION OF WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURS IF THIS EVENT IS MULTI-
BANDED...HOWEVER LATEST FCST HRRR SIM RADAR SUPPORTS THE 30 MILE
SWRD SHIFT OF THE MAX SN AXIS WE MADE FROM THE LAST MAJOR FCST
UPDATE YSTDY AFTN. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE TO PRODUCE PATCHY BLSN...WHICH
WE INCLUDE FOR THOSE LCTNS REACHING AND EXCEEDING LIKELY POPS AND
SFC TEMPS LESS THAN 30.5 DEG F.
OTHERWISE...SN WILL TAPER TO SCT SN SHWRS BY LATE EVE AND THEN END
W TO E ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN CLDNSS....
SPCLY S OF KMLT LATE TNGT INTO ERLY FRI MORN AS TEMPS CONT TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH AND TEENS N FOR OVRNGT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SNOW SHOWERS...OR FLURRIES...WILL TOP OUT
UNDER H850. THUS...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TOWARDS BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST...LESS CLOUD COVER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TOWARDS BUCKSPORT AND MACHIAS
TO UPPER 20S FURTHER NORTH IN MADAWASKA AND FORT KENT. THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 20S. A FEW READINGS IN THE TEENS WOULDN`T BE ANY SURPRISE IN
THE ALLAGASH AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS MEANS LOW CUMULUS WILL FORM
AND SPREAD OUT INTO STRATOCUMULUS AND REMAIN IN PLACE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WHERE THE WIND
DIRECTION SUGGESTS A GREATER DEGREE OF DOWNSLOPING. THESE CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT SATURDAY`S HIGHS TO THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S. ANY UNFORESEEN BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS UNDER UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
STORY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT
THIS POINT. THERE IS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSING ON MONDAY AND A
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. ON THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
AND CHANCE POPS IN WASHINGTON COUNTY FOLLOWING GEFS GUIDANCE.
DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE FOR CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH CLEARING MORE
LIKELY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING RATHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING. THE
INVERSION ALSO KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN A RANGE OF 20S AT NIGHT AND
30S IN THE DAYTIME. THE BEST SHOT OF A COLDER NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT AFTER THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SEEMS LIKELY TO REESTABLISH CLOUDINESS UNDER
THE INVERSION.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT IN RN/FOG ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THIS MORN...TRANSITIONING TO SN FROM N TO S ACROSS THE SITES
BEGINNING LATE THIS MORN AT KFVE AND REACHING KBGR AND KBHB BY
EVE. IFR CONDITIONS IN SN THIS EVE IMPROVE W TO E OVRNGT TO MVFR
AS SN TAPERS TO SCT SN SHWRS AND THEN VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES
LATE TNGT INTO ERLY FRI MORN.
SHORT TERM: THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION NORTH OF HUL WILL BE LOW
MVFR CIGS...WITH TEMPORARY DROPS JUST BELOW 1000FT INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY. BGR AND BHB WILL BE MOSTLY VFR. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
SCATTERED SNSH WITH TOPS UNDER FL050 IN AREAS NORTH OF HUL.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE GLW OUTER MZS AND SCA FOR THE INNER
BAY/HARBOR MZ LATER TDY INTO TNGT AS N TO NW WINDS INCREASE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDING LATE TNGT INTO ERLY FRI MORN. WE WENT ABOUT A FOOT
HIGHER THAN WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM BASED ON TRENDS
SHOWN IN LATEST BUOY OBS.
SHORT TERM: NO SGNFCNT WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE POSSIBILITY ON
AN SCA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR MEZ001>006-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MEZ011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1151 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
.AVIATION...
LINGERING WINDOW FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM PTK INTO THE DETROIT
CORRIDOR THROUGH 08Z BEFORE SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT WANES
CONSIDERABLY. A MORE EXTENSIVE REGION OF LOW MVFR/IFR WILL ENCOMPASS
THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILING HEIGHTS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MORNING.
FOR DTW...WINDOW FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 08Z.
AREA OBSERVATIONS PROVIDING INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF
IFR...BOTH WITH THESE SNOW SHOWER AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...LOW
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* HIGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 757 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
UPDATE...
NARROW STRIP OF FRONTAL FORCING ADVANCING OUT AHEAD OF THE INBOUND
UPPER WAVE EFFECTIVELY CAPITALIZING ON THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING POST-SUNSET AND THE ENSUING FAVORABLE REDUCTION IN
FREEZING LEVELS TO GENERATE A BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM
EASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OAKLAND AND
SOUTHERN GENESSEE COUNTY. UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN
LOCALIZED AREAS...BUT CONFINED TO NON-ROADWAY SURFACES GIVEN THE
STILL SUFFICIENTLY WARM AMBIENT ROAD TEMPS. RECENT RADAR TRENDS IN
SUPPORT OF LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IN ALLOWING THIS MOISTURE AXIS TO
STEADILY WEAKEN WITH TIME OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...EXISTING MID
LEVEL ASCENT REPOSITIONING TO THE SOUTH/WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LOW. WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ROUGHLY 07-
08Z SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR AS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM PIVOTS THROUGH. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION MINOR.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 301 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ORIENTED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM A LOW WEAKLY COUPLED TO LAKE MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ENSURE RAIN IN THE LIGHTEST PRECIPITATION, BUT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THE COLUMN HAS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY. THIS BAND IS BEING DRIVEN BY SHALLOW MODERATE FGEN
THAT IS REALLY CAPITALIZING ON WEAK STATIC STABILITY THROUGH THE
LOWEST 700MB. IN FACT, SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS EVEN NOTED ON
MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS. AFTER SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH, THE PARENT UPPER
LOW HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO PULL EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE
RELEASING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BETTER FORCING RIPPLING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 21-02Z. BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW RATES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. A LOCALIZED
2" AMOUNT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM.
A SECONDARY FOCUS OF SNOW SHOWERS IS CENTERED OVER THE CHICAGO AREA
AND IS TIED TO A PV ANOMALY EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THIS CORRIDOR OF FORCING WILL PIVOT WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, AS NW FLOW FILLS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE, AN
INCREASE IN DEFORMATION FORCING COMBINED WITH A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD ALLOW LIGHT
SNOW TO HANG ON AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT
AND CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF 8 MILE.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND PROPAGATE EAST IN ADVANCE OF INCREASINGLY ENERGETIC UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER WAVE OF RIDGING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY, CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, 500MB HEIGHT WILL BE APPROACHING THE ALL-TIME
DECEMBER RECORD OF 580.5DM, THOUGH IT IS PRESENTLY MODELED TO FALL
JUST SHORT.
DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. TROUGHING TRIES TO MOVE IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER RIDGING REMAINS STRONG WHICH WILL LEAVE THE AREA
DRY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGHS RUN IN 40 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING SUPPORTING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING. WIND
DIRECTIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RESPOND OUT OF THE NORTH BY LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH STRIPS OUT. WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO
INCREASE MODESTLY ON THURSDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS PARTICULARLY OVER LAKE HURON. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON SAGINAW BAY AND THE CENTRAL LAKE HURON BASIN MAY GUST
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
DISCUSSION...JVC/SS
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1125 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN WITHDRAWN FROM THE FCST. SVRL SITES HAVE
DROPPED PAST THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS BY SVRL DEGS AND NO FOG HAS
FORMED. IF IT HASN`T BY NOW...I DON`T BELIEVE IT WILL. THE NAM
AND HRRR NOW HAVE NO FOG.
BELIEVE THE MODELS FCSTG FOG ARE DO SO DUE TO PROBLEMS MODELING
THE BL WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. THE NAM AND SREF HAVE STRONG
SIGNALS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THU NIGHT...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY IN
ERROR. WE WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER IN THIS SHIFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EXPECT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT LACKING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP
OFF RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...AS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.
WITH THESE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM MELTING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WHILE
THE SREF PROBS ARE ONLY AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...THE NAM IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...SO WENT WITH A COMPROMISE MENTIONING PATCHY FOG GENERALLY
FROM THE TRI-CITIES SOUTH. WHILE THE NAM IS LIKELY WAY TOO
OVERDONE WITH FOG POTENTIAL AND LIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO WIND
IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...COULD NOT COMPLETELY IGNORE
THE POTENTIAL GIVEN THE GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
FOR THURSDAY...A FAIRLY NICE DECEMBER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE REGION AS WITH MAINLY CLOUD FREE SKIES AND A MILD AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM THE
CHILLY...YET SEASONABLE START TO THE DAY...EVENTUALLY CLIMBING 10
OR SO DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET WITH VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO SPEAK OF AND MILD TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL SETUP HAS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE BRINGING RETURN FLOW
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE REGION.
THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FOG POTENTIAL BOTH FRIDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NAM IS REALLY HITTING THIS HARD IN BOTH
GUIDANCE AND GENERAL OUTPUT. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS ALSO BIASED BY
THE AMOUNT OF SNOW COVER IT THINKS IS STILL ON THE GROUND. THE GFS
SUGGESTS WE WILL HAVE STRONGER WINDS IN THE RETURN FLOW AND THUS
LIMITING FOG POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WENT AHEAD AND LEFT MENTION OUT OF
THE FORECAST BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER IN FUTURE
SHIFTS.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN AFFECT ON THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP SLIGHTLY AND SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REALLY START TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.
A FEW WAVES WILL PASS BY THE REGION...BUT AT THE CURRENT TIME DO
NOT SEEM TO BE BIG WEATHER MAKERS FOR THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
REST OF TONIGHT: VFR SKC. LIGHT W WINDS UNDER 5 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH
THU: VFR WITH A FEW SHREDS OF 25K FT CIRROSTRATUS. LIGHT W WINDS
BECOME SW UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1122 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WX IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
CONTS TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
DEVELOP EAST TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR WINDS WE ARE
EXPECTING SOME PRETTY CHILLY LOWS OVER THE SNOW COVER AREAS TO
THE NORTH. ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW COVER WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING TODAY WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. THE RAP INDICATES THIS...AND THE SREF HAS SOME FAIRLY HIGH
PROBS OF LOWER VISBY OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS PATTERN
MAY AGAIN REPEAT ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND MELTING ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
THU/FRI WITH WARMER HIGHS.
A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ON FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOV ACROSS THE CWA ON LATE SAT. WE MAY SEE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE RETURN TO SEE STRATUS
DEVELOP...STARTING OVER THE WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE NIGHT
EXPANDING EWD TOWARD SAT MRNG. THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER ISN`T
OVERLY DEEP...BUT WE WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE DZ DVLP
WITHIN THIS BAND IF MOISTURE PROFILES END UP SIMILAR TO THE NAM.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH THE CWA ON SAT
EVNG/NIGHT...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WE WILL CONT TO MENTION A SCHC CHC
OF RA/SN ON SAT NIGHT IN THE SOUTH...BUT LATEST TRENDS INDICATE
THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED IN COMING FORECASTS. THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1245 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
EMBEDDED S/WV TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...GENERATING AN INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS...THOUGH WITH
CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10-15K FT AGL NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURES DROPPING WHERE OUR SNOW PACK IS THE GREATEST ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THIS TREND FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A DECENT FALL-RISE COUPLET IS NOTED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA BUT
THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP A STEADY SOUTHWEST SWITCHING WEST WIND
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT. THIS...IN ADDITION
TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH.
SNOWPACK OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE
DIGIT READINGS ALREADY LATE THIS EVENING. HERE WE THINK THERE
COULD BE A DROP OF A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AND PERHAPS WE SEE A LITTLE MORE MIXING WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THUS LOWERED TEMPERATURES HERE A BIT MORE LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE
KEEPING THEM NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.
OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES AND A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY COVER WITH THE
HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. A FEW REFLECTIVITIES
NOTED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA DROPPING SOUTHEAST BUT THINK THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA AS
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE DRY. WITH THE STEADY WINDS NORTH AND
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW. IF
ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP OVER/ADJACENT TO THE SNOWPACK...WOULD
EXPECT IT TO BE VERY PATCHY IN NATURE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO ENCROACH
INTO THE NORTHWEST. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WAS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA
WHERE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEARING FORECAST
LOWS. NEEDED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS FROM AROUND CARRINGTON AND JAMESTOWN SOUTH AND WEST TO
LINTON...ASHLEY AND OAKES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE FOR NOW. LOW TEMPERATURES FARTHER WEST WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH THE THICKER CIRRUS ERODES AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRIER
ATMOSPHERE OVER ND...AND IF THE WINDS DROP OFF OR HOLD STEADY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SNOW FIELD AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING UP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK WITH THE LATE EVENING
UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEAR SKY ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS (700MB-500MB) NOW INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM ALBERTA SOUTH INTO WESTERN MONTANA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY IN THE EVENING GIVING WAY TO A PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY WEST INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH AS IT
SHIFTS THROUGH 06Z-15Z THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS WEST AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL. THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL 12Z THURSDAY AND WITH FAIRLY
FRESH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...THIS IS THE AREA WHERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TEENS JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY
WEST IN AREAS LACKING SNOW COVER AND ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARRIVING
OVERNIGHT. LOOKED AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS
NOTHING DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME. WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
NEAR 32F WEDNESDAY...FEEL THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS DECREASING
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE /12Z- 15Z/ FOLLOWED BY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND
HIGHS 35 TO 45.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING
CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
BY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE. AT THE MOMENT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH SAID COLD FRONT WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WHERE THE STRONGER FORCING WILL RESIDE.
A RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...WITH SUBTLE WAVES MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION.
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE
WAVES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. WILL MONITOR FOR PATCHY FOG BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO ADD TO TAFS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
111 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...OFFERING DRY WEATHER WITH A
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS IN INDIANA...AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE.
THE ILN FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A PRECIPITATION LULL...WITH
JUST SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...AND A FEW FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTH. OVER INDIANA...A
WEAK AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST...UNDER AN AREA OF VERY COLD 850MB/700MB AIR. THIS HAS
ALLOWED A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
TO COMBINE WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL FORCING...PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SNOW
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF THIS REGIME WILL CROSS THE ILN CWA BETWEEN 02Z AND
07Z...AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED DURING THIS TIME FRAME
(ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS).
THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE DEGREE OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...SO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER ALL NIGHT (THE 22Z/23Z HRRR
RUNS INDICATED THIS USING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY).
NONETHELESS...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE
WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS (UNDER A HALF INCH) COULD BE POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VLY TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG SFC TROF WHICH IS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
AREA MOVING EAST THRU CENTRAL OHIO. THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH -7 DEGREES AT 8H OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN...RAIN SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW THIS
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH A MAX OF A TENTH
OR TWO...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE. EXPECT LOWS
FROM UPPER 20S WEST TO THE LOWER 30S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT 12Z THURSDAY TO
CONTINUE TRANSLATING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTI-CYCLONIC...CLOUDS
WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT WITH SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER
40S.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
EAST COAST. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WHEN A CLOSED UPPER
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
WHEN MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW TRAVELING THROUGH KENTUCKY. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN
OF HIGH PRESSURE.
OVERALL PATTERN FEATURING AN UPPER RIDGE AND HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S WILL SLIP SLIGHTLY TO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE OUT OF THE COLUMBUS AND
WILMINGTON AREAS WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF PERIOD.
REGIONAL RADAR DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
STREAMING SOUTHEAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
CAPTURING THIS ACTIVITY VERY WELL...BUT CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD
SUGGEST THESE MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF
THIS OCCURS...WOULD JUST EXPECT SOME FLURRIES AT KDAY/KILN AND
POSSIBLY THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH.
CEILINGS ARE THE OTHER FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
LATEST SATELLITE REVEALS SOME SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF CLEARING OVER
ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF INDIANA...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION IS
GENERALLY UNDER MVFR CIGS. WITH ADDITIONAL MVFR CLOUDS STREAMING
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO
MOVE INTO OUR AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
BRIEF CLEARING OR SCATTERING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
THINKING AS WELL. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LIFT
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY...AND THE CLOUD DECK MAY NOT BREAK UNTIL WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY
THURSDAY EVENING SKIES WILL TURN SKC. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT...DIMINISHING
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...KURZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
156 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LIFT OUT
TO OUR NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPLYING FAIR AND
MILDER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF PRECIP TO THE NE/N OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION IS
PIVOTING OVER LE...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT WE HAVE
NOTHING TO DREAD RE GOING FCST OF A LIGHT SNOW ACCUM FOR THE NW
THIRD AND THE LAURELS. THE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH NOW OVER MOST OF
THE WEST TO MAKE IT ALL SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT ON THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS AND A RAIN-WET SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS. BUT MOST
PLACES N/W OF UNV WILL SEE SNOW FALL SOMETIME OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
HAVE ONLY JUST GONE TO FREEZING AT SOMERSET AIRPORT/K2G9...WITH NO
OTHER SITES YET TO GO FROZEN. LATEST NAM/HRRR/RAP FCSTS PLAY A
LITTLE BIT OF A WAGGLE TO THE NORTH WITH THE SNOW BAND IN THE
NORTH. HAVE JUST NUDGED THINGS A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH THRU THE
PERIOD. BUT ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN 2 INCHES OR BELOW SINCE THE TEMPS
ARE SO MARGINAL.
PREV...
A SURFACE TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NEAR
ALBANY NY BACK THROUGH NRN PA INTO MICHIGAN JUST NORTH OF DETROIT.
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS
FROM WESTERN OHIO INTO IN/IL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD WESTERN PA AND NY.
RADAR SHOWS A SMALL BUT SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM
NW PA DOWN INTO WESTERN CLEARFIELD COUNTY. IT APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING THAT THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AS IT
PIVOTS THROUGH MAINLY MY NWRN ZONES THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST ORGANIZATION INDICATED AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE.
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE WEE HOURS
OF THURSDAY...THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST BEFORE SPREADING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
A BLEND OF MODEL QPFS YIELDS SNOWFALLS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
WHICH MAY BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THAT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WAS
EXPECTED TO HAVE OCCURRED BY NOW. WE DIDN`T CHANGE THE FORECAST
MUCH AND STUCK WITH WITH 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...WITH A COATING TO 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE EVEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AFTER 06Z. WE DID BACK OFF THE
ADMITTEDLY SMALL AMOUNTS WE HAD FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AS LATEST
GUIDANCE IS STINGY WITH THE QPF ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE 30 ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST TO NEAR 40F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGION OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND SCENT PENN.
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND BECOME CONFINED TO THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS
OF THE LAURELS AND NW MOUNTAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS THURSDAY WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH IN MOST
PLACES ACROSS NW PA AND THE LAURELS...WITH JUST FLURRIES AND
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN MTNS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FCST OVER THE LOWER 48 THRU THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...WITH RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY DECEMBER
ANTICIPATED AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS MIGRATES FROM WEST TO EAST.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.
THE KEY FEATURE HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
MID LEVEL SYSTEM EVOLVING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY
CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TEXAS AND THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE
LARGE SPREAD AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL `LIMBO` WILL STAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SHOW A MODEST INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD CLIMO BY DAY
7-8. THAT SAID...THE PATTERN MAY VERY WELL REMAIN A DRY ONE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PCPN RISK
AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO AT 06Z WILL SWING THRU CENTRAL PA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW/LOW CIGS TO THE W MTNS.
UPSTREAM RADAR/SFC OBS...COMBINED WITH NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGEST
KBFD WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS IN
SNOW/LOW CIGS BTWN 06Z-13Z. FURTHER SOUTH...KJST REPORTING LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW AT 06Z. HOWEVER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THRU ARND 08Z...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING SNOW/RISING
CIGS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS. BUKFIT AND LAMP GUIDANCE BOTH SUPPORT
GUSTS TO NR 25KTS AT KJST AFTER 08Z...WHICH SHOULD LAST THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. A DOWNSLOPING/DRYING WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE FLYING CONDS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS THIS AM.
MDL SOUNDINGS IMPLY BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS AT KUNV/KAOO BTWN 07Z-09Z
AND AT KIPT BTWN 10Z-14Z. FURTHER SE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS AT KMDT/KLNS.
THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
AM...BRINGING DIMINISHING LGT SNOW/RISING CIGS AT KBFD. RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS SHOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST THRU THIS EVENING. FURTHER EAST...VFR CIGS
EXPECTED. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
WILL CREATE GUSTY WNW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY. BUKFIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 20-25KT GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. THE WIND SHOULD
DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
120 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LIFT OUT
TO OUR NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPLYING FAIR AND
MILDER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF PRECIP TO THE NE/N OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION IS
PIVOTING OVER LE...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT WE HAVE
NOTHING TO DREAD RE GOING FCST OF A LIGHT SNOW ACCUM FOR THE NW
THIRD AND THE LAURELS. THE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH NOW OVER MOST OF
THE WEST TO MAKE IT ALL SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT ON THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS AND A RAIN-WET SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS. BUT MOST
PLACES N/W OF UNV WILL SEE SNOW FALL SOMETIME OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
HAVE ONLY JUST GONE TO FREEZING AT SOMERSET AIRPORT/K2G9...WITH NO
OTHER SITES YET TO GO FROZEN. LATEST NAM/HRRR/RAP FCSTS PLAY A
LITTLE BIT OF A WAGGLE TO THE NORTH WITH THE SNOW BAND IN THE
NORTH. HAVE JUST NUDGED THINGS A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH THRU THE
PERIOD. BUT ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN 2 INCHES OR BELOW SINCE THE TEMPS
ARE SO MARGINAL.
PREV...
A SURFACE TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NEAR
ALBANY NY BACK THROUGH NRN PA INTO MICHIGAN JUST NORTH OF DETROIT.
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS
FROM WESTERN OHIO INTO IN/IL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD WESTERN PA AND NY.
RADAR SHOWS A SMALL BUT SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM
NW PA DOWN INTO WESTERN CLEARFIELD COUNTY. IT APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING THAT THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AS IT
PIVOTS THROUGH MAINLY MY NWRN ZONES THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST ORGANIZATION INDICATED AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE.
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE WEE HOURS
OF THURSDAY...THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST BEFORE SPREADING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
A BLEND OF MODEL QPFS YIELDS SNOWFALLS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
WHICH MAY BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THAT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WAS
EXPECTED TO HAVE OCCURRED BY NOW. WE DIDN`T CHANGE THE FORECAST
MUCH AND STUCK WITH WITH 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...WITH A COATING TO 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE EVEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AFTER 06Z. WE DID BACK OFF THE
ADMITTEDLY SMALL AMOUNTS WE HAD FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AS LATEST
GUIDANCE IS STINGY WITH THE QPF ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE 30 ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST TO NEAR 40F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGION OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND SCENT PENN.
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND BECOME CONFINED TO THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS
OF THE LAURELS AND NW MOUNTAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS THURSDAY WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH IN MOST
PLACES ACROSS NW PA AND THE LAURELS...WITH JUST FLURRIES AND
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN MTNS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FCST OVER THE LOWER 48 THRU THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...WITH RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY DECEMBER
ANTICIPATED AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS MIGRATES FROM WEST TO EAST.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.
THE KEY FEATURE HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
MID LEVEL SYSTEM EVOLVING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY
CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TEXAS AND THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE
LARGE SPREAD AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL `LIMBO` WILL STAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SHOW A MODEST INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD CLIMO BY DAY
7-8. THAT SAID...THE PATTERN MAY VERY WELL REMAIN A DRY ONE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PCPN RISK
AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA...WHICH SHOULD
BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE SOME DEGRADING CONDITIONS OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW AS POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGS UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO THE NW MTNS. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AND
CONTINUE AS SNOW INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN
AIRSPACE WITH IFR VIS LKLY TO IMPACT BFD AND JST. WINDS FROM 270
TO 310 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE BY 15Z.
OUTLOOK...
THU...IFR WRN TAFS BCMG MVFR. MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH LOW CHC FOR -SHSN. 20-25KT SFC WND GUSTS FROM 280-310.
FRI-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1149 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND LIFT OUT TO OUR NORTHEAST THURSDAY. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND MILDER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NEAR
ALBANY NY BACK THROUGH NRN PA INTO MICHIGAN JUST NORTH OF DETROIT.
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS
FROM WESTERN OHIO INTO IN/IL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD WESTERN PA AND NY.
RADAR SHOWS A SMALL BUT SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM
NW PA DOWN INTO WESTERN CLEARFIELD COUNTY. IT APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING THAT THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AS IT
PIVOTS THROUGH MAINLY MY NWRN ZONES THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST ORGANIZATION INDICATED AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE.
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE WEE HOURS
OF THURSDAY...THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST BEFORE SPREADING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
A BLEND OF MODEL QPFS YIELDS SNOWFALLS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
WHICH MAY BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THAT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WAS
EXPECTED TO HAVE OCCURRED BY NOW. WE DIDN`T CHANGE THE FORECAST
MUCH AND STUCK WITH WITH 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...WITH A COATING TO 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE EVEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AFTER 06Z. WE DID BACK OFF THE
ADMITTEDLY SMALL AMOUNTS WE HAD FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AS LATEST
GUIDANCE IS STINGY WITH THE QPF ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE 30 ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST TO NEAR 40F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGION OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND SCENT PENN.
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND BECOME CONFINED TO THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS
OF THE LAURELS AND NW MOUNTAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS THURSDAY WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH IN MOST
PLACES ACROSS NW PA AND THE LAURELS...WITH JUST FLURRIES AND
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN MTNS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FCST OVER THE LOWER 48 THRU THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...WITH RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY DECEMBER
ANTICIPATED AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS MIGRATES FROM WEST TO EAST.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.
THE KEY FEATURE HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
MID LEVEL SYSTEM EVOLVING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY
CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TEXAS AND THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE
LARGE SPREAD AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL `LIMBO` WILL STAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SHOW A MODEST INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD CLIMO BY DAY
7-8. THAT SAID...THE PATTERN MAY VERY WELL REMAIN A DRY ONE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PCPN RISK
AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA...WHICH SHOULD
BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE SOME DEGRADING CONDITIONS OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW AS POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGS UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO THE NW MTNS. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AND
CONTINUE AS SNOW INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN
AIRSPACE WITH IFR VIS LKLY TO IMPACT BFD AND JST. WINDS FROM 270
TO 310 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE BY 15Z.
OUTLOOK...
THU...IFR WRN TAFS BCMG MVFR. MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH LOW CHC FOR -SHSN. 20-25KT SFC WND GUSTS FROM 280-310.
FRI-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1153 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
NOT SEEING ANY RETURNS ON RADAR IN OUR CWA...BUT SOME LIGHT ECHOES
ARE SHOWING UP ON RLX RADARS. THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW LITTLE
MAKING IT SOUTH OF BLF OVERNIGHT...BUT SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE USUALLY
MORE ROBUST IN NW FLOW EVENTS. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA MOVING INTO
THE MOUNTAINS PLUS THE UPPER VORT WORKING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING...THINK A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR SE WV...SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
NC/TN BORDER...THOUGH ONCE YOU GET SOUTH OF BLF-JFZ...THE MOISTURE
LAGS AND THE SUPPORT ALOFT IS LESS. EVEN WITH THIS...SNOWFALL
WOULD BE PUSHING NO MORE THAN ONE INCH AT BEST IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER...WITH LESS THAN A HALF INCH ELSEWHERE.
THE REST OF THE NIGHT...THE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST.
CONCERN SEEN ON THE 18Z GFS AND THE LATEST 00Z NAM IS FOR WINDS TO
PICK UP GIVEN 6 HR PRESSURE RISES OF 6-7 MB. LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE CLOUDS WHICH TEND TO HOLD THE MIXING OF THE HIGHER SPEEDS
DOWN...AND THE LOW LVL JET IS NO MORE THAN 40KTS. THEREFORE...WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN 40-45 MPH ON THE HIGHER RIDGES LEE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS...NAMELY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM BOONE TO PEAKS
OF OTTER AND ADJACENT AREAS.
HAVE INCREASED THE WIND GUSTS AND MENTIONED IN THE HWO FURTHER
NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS ABOUT GUSTS TO
40-45 MPH...WHICH IS UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S HIGHER
RIDGES TO MID 30S TO AROUND 40 EAST. JUST A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NW NC PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
EVENING. COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM ERN NY SOUTHWEST TO THE NC
FOOTHILLS. MODELS SHIFT THIS FRONT TO THE COAST BY EARLY
OVERNIGHT. SOME CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER JET WILL LINGER INTO
OVERNIGHT...SO SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST. WILL
SEE UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS START TO MOVE INTO THE SE WV MTNS AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
WILL NOT INDUCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS 11PM TO MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE
COLUMN IS SHALLOW BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG SHORTWAVE
MAY BRING A DUSTING TO QUINWOOD WV BY MORNING.
TEMPS ARE RUNNING MILDER IN THE EAST...AND LIKED THE 21Z HRRR AND
LAMP DEPICTION OF TEMPS THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO BUMPED THEM UP
OUT EAST DELAYING THE COOLER AIR TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE FRONT
MOVES EAST.
AS FOR HYDRO...STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING. THE ROANOKE RIVER
IS CRESTING AT MOST LOCATIONS INCLUDING RANDOLPH ALTHOUGH A
SECONDARY RISE IS NOTED UPSTREAM AT ALTAVISTA AND BROOKNEAL...SO
ANOTHER BUMP UP IN THE RIVER AT RANDOLPH IS LIKELY...BUT STILL
EXPECTING IT TO STAY UNDER THE 21 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. MOST RIVERS
ARE FALLING...ALTHOUGH SOME RISES ALONG THE DAN AND MIDDLE JAMES
MAY OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES ALONG THE FAR WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES
IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS CLEAR. NIGHTLY TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY BECAUSE OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...LIGHT WINDS...
AND VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE KEPT
RELATIVELY THE SAME WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY.
EXPECTING A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DUE
TO VERY DRY AIR MASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
POOR MODEL CONSENSUS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOWS THE ECMWF MOVING
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST NEARLY A DAY
BEFORE THE GFS. A LATER ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WAS
FAVORED ALONG WITH THE WPC TIMING WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...LINGERING UNTIL WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM DAILY
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NOTING MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
EASTERN TROUGHING CAUSED US TO RAISE POPS BETWEEN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1140 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
MVFR CIGS WILL IMPACT BLF/LWB THROUGH THE MORNING WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE. 3KFT CIGS MAY REACH BCB...BUT MAINLY THINKING 4-6KFT
CIGS EAST.
NW WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER CONCERNS THIS MORNING AS THEY COULD
GUST UP TO 30-35KTS.
AS THE DAY COMMENCES THURSDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP AT LYH/DAN
WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS.
OVERALL...EXPECT CONTINUED MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB THROUGH
THURSDAY...THOUGH THINK CIGS SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM TO HIGH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND
WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHY EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT MORNING DUE TO MOIST GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL...AT LWB/BCB ESPECIALLY.
BY MONDAY...THE HIGH EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THANKS TO UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS KY/TN. THIS MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA...AND MAYBE SOME SHOWERS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...KK/WP
AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1142 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND FOG POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
LOOP OF WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW CENTER
OF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...LINGERING DEFORMATION CLOUD COVER HANGING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S.
FOR TONIGHT...MODELS AND SYNTHETIC LOW CLOUD/FOG IMAGERY SHOW A SLOW
WEST TO EAST CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER //BASICALLY UP TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE// AS THE LOW PULLS EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS CLEARING WILL PROVIDE FOR SEASONALLY CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IN THE TEENS...WHILE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE RIVER UNDER MORE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED SETTLE INTO THE MIDDLE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE INCREASED
SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO A FEW LOWER
40S. THIS WILL MELT MOST OF THE SNOW THAT FELL THE LAST COUPLE DAY.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN WHAT IMPACT ALL THAT MELTED SNOW WILL HAVE ON
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
ARE DRY...SREF SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUD/FOG GIVEN THE
DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FOR
NOW...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE
WHAT TOMORROW BRINGS AS FAR AS DEW POINT RESPONSE TO THE SNOW MELT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
FOG POTENTIAL FRIDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT
ARE THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRIDAY MORNING AS THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
FOG POTENTIAL...BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS KICK IN FOR MIXING...SUNSHINE SHOULD BE AMPLE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. GFS/NAM SHOWING 925MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO 6-8C BY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS AT THE SURFACE IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY BY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
PLANS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 40S.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW-
LEVEL/0.5KM MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA FOR AN
INCREASE IN STRATUS CLOUD COVER. THE GFS ALSO SHOWING DECENT/DEEP850-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. ADDED A LIGHT CHANCE MENTION
FOR NOW.
LOOKS QUIET/MILD THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS STORM TRACK
REMAINS WELL NORTH INTO CANADA. PLAN ON HIGHS REMAINING NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A IFR/MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS IN PLACE
THROUGH 03.12Z AT KRST AND 03.16Z AT KLSE. UNLIKE THE EARLIER MODEL
GUIDANCE...THIS SET OF MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP DENSE FOG AFTER THE
CLOUDS CLEARED...SO THERE WAS NO NEED TO ADD IT. EVEN THOUGH THE
DENSE FOG IS NOT SHOWING UP...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME MVFR FOG SINCE THERE IS SOME OF THAT ALREADY SHOWING UP
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
528 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
Main short-term forecast concern will be sky cover and its impact on
high temperatures today. 09z/3am IR satellite imagery shows a large
area of low clouds covering Wisconsin, the eastern half of Iowa,
into northern Missouri and western Illinois. The leading edge of
the clouds is currently along the Illinois River and pushing slowly
southeastward. Based on satellite timing tools...the clouds will
reach the I-55 corridor by 12z/6am, then will continue to spread
further east and south as the morning progresses. Models are not
handling the current cloud field particularly well, with the GFS
completely missing it and going with a mostly clear forecast today.
Even the NAM tends to aggressively scatter the clouds during the
morning, despite the presence of a strengthening subsidence
inversion. Meanwhile, the HRRR hangs on to the low clouds through
the entire day. Think the actual solution will be somewhere in
between...as upstream PIREPS from eastern Iowa reveal a cloud depth
of only around 1000 feet. Despite low sun angle, think shallow
cloud deck will gradually erode by mid to late afternoon. Overall
forecast will be mostly cloudy across much of the area, with
mostly sunny conditions prevailing along/south of I-70 where cloud
deck will never arrive. Even with some late afternoon sunshine,
temperatures will be held down quite a bit. Have therefore
undercut the MAV guidance by several degrees, with afternoon highs
remaining in the lower to middle 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
Quiet weather will prevail throughout the extended, with the only
weather feature of note passing through the region with little
fanfare Sunday into Monday. Before that system arrives, rising
upper heights and light southerly winds on the back side of strong
surface high pressure will yield an unseasonably warm weekend with
temperatures rising at least 10 degrees above normal for this time
of year. With abundant sunshine, highs on Saturday will climb into
the lower to middle 50s. MEX guidance even suggests some upper 50s
will be possible across the area. Temperatures will drop a few
degrees back into the upper 40s/lower 50s on Sunday as a short-wave
trough approaches from the west and spreads clouds into the area.
Models are now in fairly good agreement with the timing of this
system, with both the GFS and ECMWF bringing it through central
Illinois on Sunday. Due to an initially very dry airmass beneath
sprawling high pressure, the wave will have little moisture to
work with. The GFS tries to develop a few showers, but am quite
skeptical at this point. Will therefore only include slight
chance PoPs for showers across the western half of the CWA on
Sunday, then across the E/SE Sunday night. After that, a return
to warm and dry weather is anticipated through mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
An area of low cloud cover with low-end MVFR ceilings 1000-1500 ft
AGL will continue to over-spread the central IL terminals early
this morning...expected to reach all terminals by 13Z. Low cloud
cover is trapped beneath a temperature inversion aloft that will
cause this cloud cover to linger through much of the afternoon
before dissipating. Winds W-SW 4-8 kts until evening...becoming
light and variable.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A WEAK WARMING TREND. THE ONLY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
SATELLITE INDICATES STRATUS WAS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF A ANDERSON TO NEW CASTLE LINE AND ALSO HAD SPREAD INTO
NORTHWEST SECTIONS WEST OF LAFAYETTE. RUC MODEL INDICATES STRATUS WILL
SPREAD SOUTH...WHILE THE NAM CLEAR IT OUT EVERYWHERE. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS
BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE TO SOUTHWEST INDIANA BY THIS EVENING.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...DROPPED THEM SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST
SECTIONS WITH MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...LOWER 40S WILL BE THE RULE MOST OTHER
AREAS WITH MIDDLE 40S FAR SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TREND. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH SOME POSSIBLE MID 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. MAVMOS NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK COURTESY OF THE
MUCH TALKED ABOUT STRONG EL NINO.
THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BRING AN UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...THE FORCING IS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SMALL RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAKER
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
LESS FORCING AND LITTLE MOISTURE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. ON
FINAL WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OR
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE WAY APART ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH AND BOTH SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND SKY COVER PROGS ALONG WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN LINE UP NICELY WITH THE REGIONAL BLEND REGARDING
TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 957 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
1440Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR OR WORSE FOG THROUGH
13Z...OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. MVFR STRATUS DECK
OVER NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR NORTH OF
LAF AFTER 15Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT...SO WILL JUST GO WITH
BROKEN VFR CEILINGS THERE AFTER 15Z AND CLEAR ELSEWHERE PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS.
RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. ALSO...COULD SEE
SOME FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS EARLY.
WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
815 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE BAY OF FUNDY THIS AFTERNOON THEN
TRACK ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8:15 AM UPDATE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY RAIN, AND WET SNOW MIXED IN WHERE IT`S A BIT HEAVIER.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
SNOW AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY.
600 AM UPDATE: NO SIG CHGS TO THE GOING FCST. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SIM RADAR REF SHOWS PRECIP MOVG BACK INTO THE FA FROM THE W BY MID
MORN WITH RN TRANSITIONING TO SN ACROSS THE ME N WOODS LATE THIS
MORN AS COLDER LLVL AIR WORKS SWRD FROM QB...WITH THIS TRANSITION
SPREADING SWRD IN CNTRL...SRN AROOSTOOK...NRN PENOBSCOT AND NRN
AND CNTRL PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES MIDDAY INTO ERLY AFTN. FCST QPF
AND IMPLIED SNFL DISTRIBUTION THRU THIS EVE IS NOT OUT OF LN FROM
WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE.
ORGNL DISC: MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
HEAVIEST SNFL OVR N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA AFT RN CHGS TO SN FROM N
TO S ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING LATER THIS MORN AND CONTG INTO THE
AFTN. SOME MODELS LIKE THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS HINT AT TWO BANDS OF
HEAVIER SNFL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE
UPPER LOW AS IT SCOOTS FAIRLY QUICKLY ESE OVR CNTRL AND SRN PTNS
OF THE FA THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE. THIS RELATIVELY QUICK MOTION OF
THE UPPER LOW COULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF HVY SN BANDING OVR ANY
PARTICULAR LCTNS TO A FEW HRS...BUT THIS IS ALL IT TAKES TO REACH
WRNG CRITERIA SNFL IF SN RATES ARE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HR.
SUBSEQUENTLY... THE CORRIDOR ZONE OF HEAVIEST SNFL WE CURRENTLY
SHOW COULD BE A SIMPLIFICATION OF WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURS IF THIS
EVENT IS MULTI- BANDED...HOWEVER LATEST FCST HRRR SIM RADAR
SUPPORTS THE 30 MILE SWRD SHIFT OF THE MAX SN AXIS WE MADE FROM
THE LAST MAJOR FCST UPDATE YSTDY AFTN. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE TO PRODUCE
PATCHY BLSN...WHICH WE INCLUDE FOR THOSE LCTNS REACHING AND
EXCEEDING LIKELY POPS AND SFC TEMPS LESS THAN 30.5 DEG F.
OTHERWISE...SN WILL TAPER TO SCT SN SHWRS BY LATE EVE AND THEN END
W TO E ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN CLDNSS....
SPCLY S OF KMLT LATE TNGT INTO ERLY FRI MORN AS TEMPS CONT TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH AND TEENS N FOR OVRNGT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SNOW SHOWERS...OR FLURRIES...WILL TOP OUT
UNDER H850. THUS...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TOWARDS BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST...LESS CLOUD COVER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TOWARDS BUCKSPORT AND MACHIAS
TO UPPER 20S FURTHER NORTH IN MADAWASKA AND FORT KENT. THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 20S. A FEW READINGS IN THE TEENS WOULDN`T BE ANY SURPRISE IN
THE ALLAGASH AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS MEANS LOW CUMULUS WILL FORM
AND SPREAD OUT INTO STRATOCUMULUS AND REMAIN IN PLACE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WHERE THE WIND
DIRECTION SUGGESTS A GREATER DEGREE OF DOWNSLOPING. THESE CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT SATURDAY`S HIGHS TO THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S. ANY UNFORESEEN BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS UNDER UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
STORY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT
THIS POINT. THERE IS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSING ON MONDAY AND A
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. ON THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
AND CHANCE POPS IN WASHINGTON COUNTY FOLLOWING GEFS GUIDANCE.
DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE FOR CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH CLEARING MORE
LIKELY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING RATHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING. THE
INVERSION ALSO KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN A RANGE OF 20S AT NIGHT AND
30S IN THE DAYTIME. THE BEST SHOT OF A COLDER NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT AFTER THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SEEMS LIKELY TO REESTABLISH CLOUDINESS UNDER
THE INVERSION.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT IN RN/FOG ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THIS MORN...TRANSITIONING TO SN FROM N TO S ACROSS THE SITES
BEGINNING LATE THIS MORN AT KFVE AND REACHING KBGR AND KBHB BY
EVE. IFR CONDITIONS IN SN THIS EVE IMPROVE W TO E OVRNGT TO MVFR
AS SN TAPERS TO SCT SN SHWRS AND THEN VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES
LATE TNGT INTO ERLY FRI MORN.
SHORT TERM: THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION NORTH OF HUL WILL BE LOW
MVFR CIGS...WITH TEMPORARY DROPS JUST BELOW 1000FT INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY. BGR AND BHB WILL BE MOSTLY VFR. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
SCATTERED SNSH WITH TOPS UNDER FL050 IN AREAS NORTH OF HUL.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE GLW OUTER MZS AND SCA FOR THE INNER
BAY/HARBOR MZ LATER TDY INTO TNGT AS N TO NW WINDS INCREASE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDING LATE TNGT INTO ERLY FRI MORN. WE WENT ABOUT A FOOT
HIGHER THAN WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM BASED ON TRENDS
SHOWN IN LATEST BUOY OBS.
SHORT TERM: NO SGNFCNT WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE POSSIBILITY
ON AN SCA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ011-031-
032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
614 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE BAY OF FUNDY THIS AFTERNOON THEN
TRACK ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM UPDATE: NO SIG CHGS TO THE GOING FCST. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SIM RADAR REF SHOWS PRECIP MOVG BACK INTO THE FA FROM THE W BY MID
MORN WITH RN TRANSITIONING TO SN ACROSS THE ME N WOODS LATE THIS
MORN AS COLDER LLVL AIR WORKS SWRD FROM QB...WITH THIS TRANSITION
SPREADING SWRD IN CNTRL...SRN AROOSTOOK...NRN PENOBSCOT AND NRN
AND CNTRL PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES MIDDAY INTO ERLY AFTN. FCST QPF
AND IMPLIED SNFL DISTRIBUTION THRU THIS EVE IS NOT OUT OF LN FROM
WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE.
ORGNL DISC: MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
HEAVIEST SNFL OVR N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA AFT RN CHGS TO SN FROM N
TO S ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING LATER THIS MORN AND CONTG INTO THE
AFTN. SOME MODELS LIKE THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS HINT AT TWO BANDS OF
HEAVIER SNFL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE
UPPER LOW AS IT SCOOTS FAIRLY QUICKLY ESE OVR CNTRL AND SRN PTNS
OF THE FA THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE. THIS RELATIVELY QUICK MOTION OF
THE UPPER LOW COULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF HVY SN BANDING OVR ANY
PARTICULAR LCTNS TO A FEW HRS...BUT THIS IS ALL IT TAKES TO REACH
WRNG CRITERIA SNFL IF SN RATES ARE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HR.
SUBSEQUENTLY... THE CORRIDOR ZONE OF HEAVIEST SNFL WE CURRENTLY
SHOW COULD BE A SIMPLIFICATION OF WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURS IF THIS
EVENT IS MULTI- BANDED...HOWEVER LATEST FCST HRRR SIM RADAR
SUPPORTS THE 30 MILE SWRD SHIFT OF THE MAX SN AXIS WE MADE FROM
THE LAST MAJOR FCST UPDATE YSTDY AFTN. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE TO PRODUCE
PATCHY BLSN...WHICH WE INCLUDE FOR THOSE LCTNS REACHING AND
EXCEEDING LIKELY POPS AND SFC TEMPS LESS THAN 30.5 DEG F.
OTHERWISE...SN WILL TAPER TO SCT SN SHWRS BY LATE EVE AND THEN END
W TO E ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN CLDNSS....
SPCLY S OF KMLT LATE TNGT INTO ERLY FRI MORN AS TEMPS CONT TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH AND TEENS N FOR OVRNGT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SNOW SHOWERS...OR FLURRIES...WILL TOP OUT
UNDER H850. THUS...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TOWARDS BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST...LESS CLOUD COVER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TOWARDS BUCKSPORT AND MACHIAS
TO UPPER 20S FURTHER NORTH IN MADAWASKA AND FORT KENT. THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 20S. A FEW READINGS IN THE TEENS WOULDN`T BE ANY SURPRISE IN
THE ALLAGASH AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS MEANS LOW CUMULUS WILL FORM
AND SPREAD OUT INTO STRATOCUMULUS AND REMAIN IN PLACE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WHERE THE WIND
DIRECTION SUGGESTS A GREATER DEGREE OF DOWNSLOPING. THESE CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT SATURDAY`S HIGHS TO THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S. ANY UNFORESEEN BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS UNDER UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
STORY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT
THIS POINT. THERE IS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSING ON MONDAY AND A
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. ON THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
AND CHANCE POPS IN WASHINGTON COUNTY FOLLOWING GEFS GUIDANCE.
DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE FOR CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH CLEARING MORE
LIKELY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING RATHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING. THE
INVERSION ALSO KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN A RANGE OF 20S AT NIGHT AND
30S IN THE DAYTIME. THE BEST SHOT OF A COLDER NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT AFTER THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SEEMS LIKELY TO REESTABLISH CLOUDINESS UNDER
THE INVERSION.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT IN RN/FOG ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THIS MORN...TRANSITIONING TO SN FROM N TO S ACROSS THE SITES
BEGINNING LATE THIS MORN AT KFVE AND REACHING KBGR AND KBHB BY
EVE. IFR CONDITIONS IN SN THIS EVE IMPROVE W TO E OVRNGT TO MVFR
AS SN TAPERS TO SCT SN SHWRS AND THEN VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES
LATE TNGT INTO ERLY FRI MORN.
SHORT TERM: THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION NORTH OF HUL WILL BE LOW
MVFR CIGS...WITH TEMPORARY DROPS JUST BELOW 1000FT INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY. BGR AND BHB WILL BE MOSTLY VFR. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
SCATTERED SNSH WITH TOPS UNDER FL050 IN AREAS NORTH OF HUL.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE GLW OUTER MZS AND SCA FOR THE INNER
BAY/HARBOR MZ LATER TDY INTO TNGT AS N TO NW WINDS INCREASE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDING LATE TNGT INTO ERLY FRI MORN. WE WENT ABOUT A FOOT
HIGHER THAN WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM BASED ON TRENDS
SHOWN IN LATEST BUOY OBS.
SHORT TERM: NO SGNFCNT WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE POSSIBILITY
ON AN SCA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR MEZ001>006-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MEZ011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS SEATTLE WA
311 AM PST THU DEC 3 2015
CORRECTIONS TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE
COAST TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...
FOR RAINY AND VERY WINDY WEATHER. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING MORE RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING...BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE ALONG
140W. A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE TROUGH...WITH A 993 MB LOW ABOUT 200 NM WEST OF
THE COAST AT THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER.
IN THE MEANTIME A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM MOVED NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SNOW LEVEL CLIMBED TO 6000
TO 7000 FT...HOWEVER EASTERLY FLOW IS HOLDING THE TEMPERATURE IN
THE CASCADES PASSES AT OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING. AT 1 AM THE
WASHINGTON DOT PASS REPORT SHOWED SNOQUALMIE PASS AND STEVENS PASS
AT 26 AND 24 DEGREES...SO SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THERE IS
PROBABLY FREEZING RAIN. UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE
OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY A QUARTER TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH AT THE COAST...AND UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGED
FROM THE LOWER 40S TO THE MID 50S...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES IN THE EAST PUGET
SOUND LOWLANDS.
THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TO THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND INLAND THIS EVENING...AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WITH LOCAL FREEZING RAIN IN
THE PASSES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CASCADES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 983 MB AS IT
MAKES LANDFALL -- PROBABLY ALONG THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST --
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE
THIS EVENING. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS IN OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH THOUGH...
BECAUSE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT. THE 06Z
SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM AND GFS TAKE THE LOW ON A TRACK FURTHER
WEST...AND IF THEY ARE RIGHT THEN HIGH WINDS WOULD BE UNLIKELY
OVER THE INTERIOR. THE HRRR SOLUTIONS...ON THE OTHER HAND...
CONTINUE TO LOOK SIMILAR TO THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS UPON WHICH THE
HIGH WIND WARNING IS BASED.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING MORE SHOWERY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES WEST ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
FALL TO AROUND 3500 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY 1 TO 6
INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE THAT LEVEL.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BAND WILL PROBABLY REACH THE COAST AND OLYMPIC
PENINSULA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. WE CAN EXPECT STORM
TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 1 TO 3.5 INCHES AT THE COAST...2 TO 6
INCHES IN THE OLYMPICS...0.5 TO 2 INCHES IN THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS...AND MAINLY 1 TO 5 INCHES IN THE CASCADES. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 3000 FT AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES BUT RISE TO
5000 TO 6000 FT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS MENTIONED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW...THE RAINFALL
OVER THE OLYMPICS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. MCDONNAL
.LONG TERM...ALL THE MODELS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUING
WITH FAIRLY VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL PROBABLY
MOVE THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ONE OR
TWO SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
LITTLE AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO ANY FORECAST DETAILS...AND RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IS RATHER POOR AS WELL. A BROAD BRUSH WET FORECAST
IS RIGHT FOR NOW. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE
MAINLY 4500 FT OR HIGHER...POSSIBLY FALLING TO 3000 TO 4000 FT
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT COULD BE LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES
AS WELL. MCDONNAL
&&
.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING 994 LOW ABOUT
250 NM W OF THE SOUTH OREGON COAST THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO
AROUND 984 MB AS IT MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SW BC THIS EVENING. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME STRONG SLY ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN LOWERING CIGS AND DECREASING VIS IN RA AS
THE LOW APPROACHES TODAY. INCREASING SLY FLOW AT FL020 WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF STRONG LLWS AFTER 20Z AND UNTIL THE LOW MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA. STRONG SFC AND LOW LEVEL S TO SW WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THE LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY ONTO THE
WASHINGTON COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT
KSEA...DESPITE RA AT TIMES...EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN 030-050 THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER TO BKN020 OVC040 IN SHRA AS
THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE E 10-12 KT TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM 21Z-01Z EXPECT SLY WIND AT
FL020 TO INCREASE TO 55-60 KT GIVING STG LLWS. SFC WIND WILL
INCREASE TO S 30KTG45 KT AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTH 02Z-04Z
THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE IN THE EVENING. ALBRECHT
&&
.MARINE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING 994 MB LOW ABOUT
250NM W OF THE S OREGON COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
DEEPEN TO AROUND 984 MB AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AROUND THE GRAYS HARBOR
BAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO SW BC DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. WE NOW HAVE GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL WATERS...WITH
STORM WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS FLOW TURNS FROM SE TO W THERE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER
STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
YET ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SUN NIGHT.
A LONG FETCH OF STG WINDS OFFSHORE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEAS REACHING
TO 20-25 FT AT TIMES IN THE COASTAL WATERS SAT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT.
ALBRECHT
&&
.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FORECAST
RAINFALL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER TO EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING ON SUNDAY...AND WE
COULD ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT LATER TODAY. LONG RANGE MODELS DO
NOT AGREE WELL ON DETAILS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THEY ALL
KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE WET BUT PROGRESSIVE. NO PARTICULAR SYSTEM
KEEPS HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON FOR VERY LONG...BUT THE
ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD -- ON TOP OF THE
WET WEATHER BETWEEN TODAY AND SATURDAY -- COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
SOME MINOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK. BURKE/MCDONNAL
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-
BREMERTON AND VICINITY-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-EVERETT
AND VICINITY-HOOD CANAL AREA-SAN JUAN COUNTY-SEATTLE AND
VICINITY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA-WESTERN SKAGIT
COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH
AND KING COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL COAST-NORTH COAST.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT
FOR EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-WEST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT
FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT
FOR PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
332 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
STEADY STREAM OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CUBA INTO THE KEYS, HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME HOLDING
TOGETHER INTO THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS NEAR TERM
MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE HRRR CONTINUE TO FORECAST THESE CLUSTERS
EVENTUALLY ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR
HAS BEEN FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON, SO SKEPTICAL OF THIS
ARRIVAL TIME. ABUNDANT CLOUDS HAVE ALSO PREVENTED ANY DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SO FAR. UNDER THIS REGIME, TYPICALLY
OFFSHORE HVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MUCH BETTER SUCCESS
CROSSING LAND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER,
STILL CAN`T RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE
EAST COAST SEABREEZE POTENTIALLY LEADING TO ENOUGH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE/LIFT FOR WET WEATHER ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO. THIS
SEEMS TO BE OCCURRING IN BROWARD/FLL/FXE ATTM AND PARTS OF
INTERIOR MIAMI-DADE.
OVERALL, SOME CHANGES IN THE MODELS. STRONGER WINDS FORECASTED
BY THE MODELS TO AFFECT ALL OF THE EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC
WATERS, NOW ONLY MAKE IT TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. THIS MAY INDICATE
THAT THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WHICH LEADS TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG EXTREME SOUTH FL. THUS THERE IS A
DEVELOPING TREND TOWARDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS HEAVIEST QPF FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF HAS SHIFTED NORTH. REGARDLESSS, CAN`T PUT MUCH STOCK IN
RUN TO RUN VARIANCES, SO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES FOR ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
FOR TONIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL FORCING
PROVIDED BY A FEW MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES AND MORE FAVORABLE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER JET, MAY BE THE EXTRA BOOST NEEDED TO
SPARK DEVELOPMENT. WIND FIELD REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING AND
BACKBUILDING, ALSO LLVL HELICITY IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORMS.
WITH THE LACK OF ACTIVITY THUS FAR THIS PM, WILL HOLD OFF ON A
FLOOD WATCH AND CONTINUE TO ASSESS LATER THIS PM. WITH THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT, THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME HEAVIER RAIN
REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WHEREAS
THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE FL STRAITS AND KEYS, CLIPPING EXTREME SE
FL AROUND 6Z SAT. TOUGH TO ASCERTAIN HOW MUCH QPF FROM BOTH MODELS
ARE BEING INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. STRONGER MIDLEVEL SW
FLOW DOES SEEM TO END FRIDAY EVENING, WHICH WOULD SEEM TO CUTOFF
THE TRANSPORT OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH
PWATS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED. BY SATURDAY PM WINDS BECOME EASTERLY
THROUGH H85 AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WAVERS OVER SOUTH FL THROUGH MONDAY. INTO
MIDWEEK, A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
MAY FINALLY SHOVE THE WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH USHERING IN DRIER AIR
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR/LAKE REGION. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS
PROGRESSION WHEREAS THE ECMWF LAGS, WITH A WETTER FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT THAN THE
ECMWF
&&
.MARINE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS INTO SATURDAY AM. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT SMALL CRAFT ADV LEVEL WINDS MAY ONLY MAKE TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY. WIND SPEEDS MAY STAY AROUND
10 KTS FARTHER SOUTH. WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE GULF STREAM THOUGH
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE 7 FT AND ABOVE, HIGHEST OFFSHORE PALM
BEACH COUNTY. A WEAK TO MODERATE SWELL WILL ROLL DOWN THE EAST
COAST SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WAVES SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 78 74 80 / 90 90 60 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 78 69 79 / 90 80 70 70
MIAMI 71 80 71 81 / 80 80 70 70
NAPLES 67 77 68 82 / 100 80 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
255 PM CST THU DEC 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU DEC 3 2015
High pressure is building into the Midwest this evening and is
expected to continue through the overnight. However, residual
moisture trapped in the low levels is keeping stratus over Central
Illinois this afternoon. Mixing out this moisture has been limited
to the far west with dry air advecting in. This trend is expected
to continue and slowly erode the clouds west to east through the
evening/early tonight. With the loss of the clouds, sfc temps
should be able to drop fairly quickly, particularly with light and
variable winds under the ridge. Temps dropping before the bulk of
the dry air gets into the region could result in some fog tonight.
At this point, models are not clearing the clouds fast enough to
model the low level RH correctly. Expect some variability in the
fog development and longevity overnight, so keeping the patchy
wording.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU DEC 3 2015
Generally quiet weather and at least slightly above normal
temperatures should prevail across central and southeast Illinois
over the next several days. A couple weak and moisture starved
disturbances will track across the forecast area during the period,
the first around Sunday night, and the second around Wednesday
night. Both disturbances will come off the Pacific in a quick moving
quasi-zonal flow, and there are (not surprisingly) some timing
differences. However, will not get too concerned with the timing
differences at this point given the low overall threat of
significant precipitation.
The quasi-zonal flow will help keep the real chilly air trapped well
north of the area through the period, helping keep temperatures
above normal. This scenario has been the case more often than not
over the past several weeks. However, did knock high temperatures
down a few degrees the next couple of days. While there should be
considerable sunshine, surface based WAA will not be significant.
Forecast soundings suggest a very strong, near surface based,
inversion will be in place. This inversion should preclude much in
the way of vertical mixing, and prohibit some of the warmer
temperatures aloft from working their way down.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
Complications for this forecast surround the clearing of the
MVFR/IFR stratus over Central Illinois. Concern this morning that
the cloud deck was not moving, however, the western edge has
started to erode somewhat. For now, will go with the more
optimistic drying out of the llvls in the models as there is some
consistency from RAP to NAM to GFS, and the HRRR the outlier, but
currently overestimating the cloud cover on sat imagery. For the
short term, keeping the stratus and the west/northwesterly winds
through sunset. Slow clearing from west to east overnight with low
confidence.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1148 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
High pressure building into the region this morning is doing
little to prevent the low stratus to remain trapped at about 1000
ft for most of Central Illinois. Little change expected throughout
the day. Have adjusted the forecast here and there, enhancing
sky cover and adjusting the high temp for the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
Main short-term forecast concern will be sky cover and its impact on
high temperatures today. 09z/3am IR satellite imagery shows a large
area of low clouds covering Wisconsin, the eastern half of Iowa,
into northern Missouri and western Illinois. The leading edge of
the clouds is currently along the Illinois River and pushing slowly
southeastward. Based on satellite timing tools...the clouds will
reach the I-55 corridor by 12z/6am, then will continue to spread
further east and south as the morning progresses. Models are not
handling the current cloud field particularly well, with the GFS
completely missing it and going with a mostly clear forecast today.
Even the NAM tends to aggressively scatter the clouds during the
morning, despite the presence of a strengthening subsidence
inversion. Meanwhile, the HRRR hangs on to the low clouds through
the entire day. Think the actual solution will be somewhere in
between...as upstream PIREPS from eastern Iowa reveal a cloud depth
of only around 1000 feet. Despite low sun angle, think shallow
cloud deck will gradually erode by mid to late afternoon. Overall
forecast will be mostly cloudy across much of the area, with
mostly sunny conditions prevailing along/south of I-70 where cloud
deck will never arrive. Even with some late afternoon sunshine,
temperatures will be held down quite a bit. Have therefore
undercut the MAV guidance by several degrees, with afternoon highs
remaining in the lower to middle 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
Quiet weather will prevail throughout the extended, with the only
weather feature of note passing through the region with little
fanfare Sunday into Monday. Before that system arrives, rising
upper heights and light southerly winds on the back side of strong
surface high pressure will yield an unseasonably warm weekend with
temperatures rising at least 10 degrees above normal for this time
of year. With abundant sunshine, highs on Saturday will climb into
the lower to middle 50s. MEX guidance even suggests some upper 50s
will be possible across the area. Temperatures will drop a few
degrees back into the upper 40s/lower 50s on Sunday as a short-wave
trough approaches from the west and spreads clouds into the area.
Models are now in fairly good agreement with the timing of this
system, with both the GFS and ECMWF bringing it through central
Illinois on Sunday. Due to an initially very dry airmass beneath
sprawling high pressure, the wave will have little moisture to
work with. The GFS tries to develop a few showers, but am quite
skeptical at this point. Will therefore only include slight
chance PoPs for showers across the western half of the CWA on
Sunday, then across the E/SE Sunday night. After that, a return
to warm and dry weather is anticipated through mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
Complications for this forecast surround the clearing of the
MVFR/IFR stratus over Central Illinois. Concern this morning that
the cloud deck was not moving, however, the western edge has
started to erode somewhat. For now, will go with the more
optimistic drying out of the llvls in the models as there is some
consistency from RAP to NAM to GFS, and the HRRR the outlier, but
currently overestimating the cloud cover on sat imagery. For the
short term, keeping the stratus and the west/northwesterly winds
through sunset. Slow clearing from west to east overnight with low
confidence.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1053 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
High pressure building into the region this morning is doing
little to prevent the low stratus to remain trapped at about 1000
ft for most of Central Illinois. Little change expected throughoutthe
day. Have adjusted the forecast here and there, enhancing sky
cover and adjusting the high temp for the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
Main short-term forecast concern will be sky cover and its impact on
high temperatures today. 09z/3am IR satellite imagery shows a large
area of low clouds covering Wisconsin, the eastern half of Iowa,
into northern Missouri and western Illinois. The leading edge of
the clouds is currently along the Illinois River and pushing slowly
southeastward. Based on satellite timing tools...the clouds will
reach the I-55 corridor by 12z/6am, then will continue to spread
further east and south as the morning progresses. Models are not
handling the current cloud field particularly well, with the GFS
completely missing it and going with a mostly clear forecast today.
Even the NAM tends to aggressively scatter the clouds during the
morning, despite the presence of a strengthening subsidence
inversion. Meanwhile, the HRRR hangs on to the low clouds through
the entire day. Think the actual solution will be somewhere in
between...as upstream PIREPS from eastern Iowa reveal a cloud depth
of only around 1000 feet. Despite low sun angle, think shallow
cloud deck will gradually erode by mid to late afternoon. Overall
forecast will be mostly cloudy across much of the area, with
mostly sunny conditions prevailing along/south of I-70 where cloud
deck will never arrive. Even with some late afternoon sunshine,
temperatures will be held down quite a bit. Have therefore
undercut the MAV guidance by several degrees, with afternoon highs
remaining in the lower to middle 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
Quiet weather will prevail throughout the extended, with the only
weather feature of note passing through the region with little
fanfare Sunday into Monday. Before that system arrives, rising
upper heights and light southerly winds on the back side of strong
surface high pressure will yield an unseasonably warm weekend with
temperatures rising at least 10 degrees above normal for this time
of year. With abundant sunshine, highs on Saturday will climb into
the lower to middle 50s. MEX guidance even suggests some upper 50s
will be possible across the area. Temperatures will drop a few
degrees back into the upper 40s/lower 50s on Sunday as a short-wave
trough approaches from the west and spreads clouds into the area.
Models are now in fairly good agreement with the timing of this
system, with both the GFS and ECMWF bringing it through central
Illinois on Sunday. Due to an initially very dry airmass beneath
sprawling high pressure, the wave will have little moisture to
work with. The GFS tries to develop a few showers, but am quite
skeptical at this point. Will therefore only include slight
chance PoPs for showers across the western half of the CWA on
Sunday, then across the E/SE Sunday night. After that, a return
to warm and dry weather is anticipated through mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015
An area of low cloud cover with low-end MVFR ceilings 1000-1500 ft
AGL will continue to over-spread the central IL terminals early
this morning...expected to reach all terminals by 13Z. Low cloud
cover is trapped beneath a temperature inversion aloft that will
cause this cloud cover to linger through much of the afternoon
before dissipating. Winds W-SW 4-8 kts until evening...becoming
light and variable.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
537 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUR WAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BUT AT THE
MOMENT MODELS INDICATE MORE CLOUDS...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTH AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
SATELLITE INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
THE STATUS HAS BEEN CLEARING OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS....WHILE IT HAS
INCREASED A LITTLE ACROSS INDIANA.
EXPECT SOME CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER RUC AND
NAM MODEL INDICATES POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME STRATUS
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE
THREAT OF FOG. EVEN IF CLOUDS CLEAR...MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WHICH WOULD FAVOR STRATUS OVER FOG. SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF FOG AS PARAMETERS ARE VERY IFFY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 20S WHICH IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ON TO THE EAST AND MODELS BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OUR WAY.
MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE EURO
INDICATES TRACE PRECIP AMOUNTS WEST AND SOUTH LATE SUNDAY. WILL GO
WITH CONSENSUS AND KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY AND SUNDAY AND IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IN THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS WITH SOME SUN AND WARM ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...STAYED
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
ENSEMBLES BRING AN UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THE FORCING IS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO CARRY
WEAK CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WEAK RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 537 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
EXTENSIVE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS 012-020 COVERS MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL INDIANA...AFFECTING THE KLAF/KHUF/KIND TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THE SOUTHERN EDGE HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER THE WESTERN EDGE HAS BEEN ERODING OVER ILLINOIS.
GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME...EXPECT THESE CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE WEST...BUT IT
PROBABLY WON/T BE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THIS HAPPENS.
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
SOME FOG FORMATION...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON VISIBILITY FORECASTS IS LOW
DUE TO QUESTIONS REVOLVING ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE
KHUF/KBMG AREAS...WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE CLEARING LINE AND LIGHTEST WINDS.
SURFACE WINDS AT OR BELOW 7 KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
324 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUR WAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BUT AT THE
MOMENT MODELS INDICATE MORE CLOUDS...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTH AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
SATELLITE INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
THE STATUS HAS BEEN CLEARING OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS....WHILE IT HAS
INCREASED A LITTLE ACROSS INDIANA.
EXPECT SOME CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER RUC AND
NAM MODEL INDICATES POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME STRATUS
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE
THREAT OF FOG. EVEN IF CLOUDS CLEAR...MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WHICH WOULD FAVOR STRATUS OVER FOG. SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF FOG AS PARAMETERS ARE VERY IFFY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 20S WHICH IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ON TO THE EAST AND MODELS BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OUR WAY.
MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE EURO
INDICATES TRACE PRECIP AMOUNTS WEST AND SOUTH LATE SUNDAY. WILL GO
WITH CONSENSUS AND KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY AND SUNDAY AND IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IN THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS WITH SOME SUN AND WARM ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...STAYED
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
ENSEMBLES BRING AN UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THE FORCING IS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO CARRY
WEAK CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WEAK RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS BASED ON LATEST OBS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
THE MVFR STRATUS DECK WHICH WAS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW COVERING A GOOD
PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND ONLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE. ALL
THE CEILINGS UPSTREAM AND AT SITES SUCH AS LAF/HUF AND EVEN MOST
RECENTLY IND...BKN-OVC015 IS BEING REPORTED SO WENT WITH THIS AS
THE PREVAILING CLOUD CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO HOW MUCH...IF ANY? WILL THIS CLOUD DECK
THIN OUT BY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY LITTLE HELP AS IT
HAS NOT CAUGHT ON TO THIS DECK EVEN MOVING INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA...SO HOPEFULLY THE NEXT MODEL RUN WILL BE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WENT THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE...GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES BY THIS
EVENING AND THEN INTRODUCING MVFR VISIBILITIES (PER MAINLY THE
NAM MOS) CONSIDERING THE MOIST GROUND...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THIS STRATUS DECK MAY NOT BE GOING
ANYWHERE...WHICH MEAN ALL THE TERMINALS WILL STAY AT MVFR FOR THIS
EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS VIA VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR ANY BREAKS OR
THINNING...AND ALSO AWAIT THE LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
310 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUR WAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BUT AT THE
MOMENT MODELS INDICATE MORE CLOUDS...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTH AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
SATELLITE INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
THE STATUS HAS BEEN CLEARING OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS....WHILE IT HAS
INCREASED A LITTLE ACROSS INDIANA.
EXPECT SOME CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER RUC AND
NAM MODEL INDICATES POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME STRATUS
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE
THREAT OF FOG. EVEN IF CLOUDS CLEAR...MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WHICH WOULD FAVOR STRATUS OVER FOG. SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF FOG AS PARAMETERS ARE VERY IFFY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 20S WHICH IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ON TO THE EAST AND MODELS BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OUR WAY.
MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE EURO
INDICATES TRACE PRECIP AMOUNTS WEST AND SOUTH LATE SUNDAY. WILL GO
WITH CONSENSUS AND KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY AND SUNDAY AND IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IN THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS WITH SOME SUN AND WARM ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...STAYED
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
ENSEMBLES BRING AN UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THE FORCING IS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO CARRY
WEAK CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WEAK RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
THE MVFR STRATUS DECK WHICH WAS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW COVERING A GOOD
PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND ONLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE. ALL
THE CEILINGS UPSTREAM AND AT SITES SUCH AS LAF/HUF AND EVEN MOST
RECENTLY IND...BKN-OVC015 IS BEING REPORTED SO WENT WITH THIS AS
THE PREVAILING CLOUD CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO HOW MUCH...IF ANY? WILL THIS CLOUD DECK
THIN OUT BY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY LITTLE HELP AS IT
HAS NOT CAUGHT ON TO THIS DECK EVEN MOVING INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA...SO HOPEFULLY THE NEXT MODEL RUN WILL BE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WENT THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE...GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES BY THIS
EVENING AND THEN INTRODUCING MVFR VISIBILITIES (PER MAINLY THE
NAM MOS) CONSIDERING THE MOIST GROUND...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THIS STRATUS DECK MAY NOT BE GOING
ANYWHERE...WHICH MEAN ALL THE TERMINALS WILL STAY AT MVFR FOR THIS
EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS VIA VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR ANY BREAKS OR
THINNING...AND ALSO AWAIT THE LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
242 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A WEAK WARMING TREND. THE ONLY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
SATELLITE INDICATES STRATUS WAS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF A ANDERSON TO NEW CASTLE LINE AND ALSO HAD SPREAD
INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS WEST OF LAFAYETTE. RUC MODEL INDICATES
STRATUS WILL SPREAD SOUTH...WHILE THE NAM CLEAR IT OUT EVERYWHERE.
WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE TO SOUTHWEST INDIANA BY THIS EVENING.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...DROPPED THEM SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST
SECTIONS WITH MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...LOWER 40S WILL BE THE RULE MOST OTHER
AREAS WITH MIDDLE 40S FAR SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TREND. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH SOME POSSIBLE MID 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. MAVMOS NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
ENSEMBLES BRING AN UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THE FORCING IS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO CARRY
WEAK CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WEAK RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
THE MVFR STRATUS DECK WHICH WAS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW COVERING A GOOD
PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND ONLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE. ALL
THE CEILINGS UPSTREAM AND AT SITES SUCH AS LAF/HUF AND EVEN MOST
RECENTLY IND...BKN-OVC015 IS BEING REPORTED SO WENT WITH THIS AS
THE PREVAILING CLOUD CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO HOW MUCH...IF ANY? WILL THIS CLOUD DECK
THIN OUT BY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY LITTLE HELP AS IT
HAS NOT CAUGHT ON TO THIS DECK EVEN MOVING INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA...SO HOPEFULLY THE NEXT MODEL RUN WILL BE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WENT THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE...GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES BY THIS
EVENING AND THEN INTRODUCING MVFR VISIBILITIES (PER MAINLY THE
NAM MOS) CONSIDERING THE MOIST GROUND...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THIS STRATUS DECK MAY NOT BE GOING
ANYWHERE...WHICH MEAN ALL THE TERMINALS WILL STAY AT MVFR FOR THIS
EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS VIA VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR ANY BREAKS OR
THINNING...AND ALSO AWAIT THE LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A WEAK WARMING TREND. THE ONLY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
SATELLITE INDICATES STRATUS WAS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF A ANDERSON TO NEW CASTLE LINE AND ALSO HAD SPREAD
INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS WEST OF LAFAYETTE. RUC MODEL INDICATES
STRATUS WILL SPREAD SOUTH...WHILE THE NAM CLEAR IT OUT EVERYWHERE.
WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE TO SOUTHWEST INDIANA BY THIS EVENING.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...DROPPED THEM SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST
SECTIONS WITH MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...LOWER 40S WILL BE THE RULE MOST OTHER
AREAS WITH MIDDLE 40S FAR SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TREND. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH SOME POSSIBLE MID 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. MAVMOS NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK COURTESY OF THE
MUCH TALKED ABOUT STRONG EL NINO.
THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BRING AN UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...THE FORCING IS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SMALL RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAKER
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
LESS FORCING AND LITTLE MOISTURE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. ON
FINAL WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OR
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE WAY APART ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH AND BOTH SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND SKY COVER PROGS ALONG WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN LINE UP NICELY WITH THE REGIONAL BLEND REGARDING
TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
THE MVFR STRATUS DECK WHICH WAS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW COVERING A GOOD
PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND ONLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE. ALL
THE CEILINGS UPSTREAM AND AT SITES SUCH AS LAF/HUF AND EVEN MOST
RECENTLY IND...BKN-OVC015 IS BEING REPORTED SO WENT WITH THIS AS
THE PREVAILING CLOUD CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO HOW MUCH...IF ANY? WILL THIS CLOUD DECK
THIN OUT BY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY LITTLE HELP AS IT
HAS NOT CAUGHT ON TO THIS DECK EVEN MOVING INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA...SO HOPEFULLY THE NEXT MODEL RUN WILL BE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WENT THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE...GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES BY THIS
EVENING AND THEN INTRODUCING MVFR VISIBILITIES (PER MAINLY THE
NAM MOS) CONSIDERING THE MOIST GROUND...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THIS STRATUS DECK MAY NOT BE GOING
ANYWHERE...WHICH MEAN ALL THE TERMINALS WILL STAY AT MVFR FOR THIS
EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS VIA VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR ANY BREAKS OR
THINNING...AND ALSO AWAIT THE LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1108 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE BAY OF FUNDY THIS AFTERNOON THEN
TRACK ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:10 AM UDPATE...PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AS THE STORM ORGANIZES ALONG THE COAST.
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING HEAVY FOR A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE STORM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST.
600 AM UPDATE: NO SIG CHGS TO THE GOING FCST. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SIM RADAR REF SHOWS PRECIP MOVG BACK INTO THE FA FROM THE W BY MID
MORN WITH RN TRANSITIONING TO SN ACROSS THE ME N WOODS LATE THIS
MORN AS COLDER LLVL AIR WORKS SWRD FROM QB...WITH THIS TRANSITION
SPREADING SWRD IN CNTRL...SRN AROOSTOOK...NRN PENOBSCOT AND NRN
AND CNTRL PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES MIDDAY INTO ERLY AFTN. FCST QPF
AND IMPLIED SNFL DISTRIBUTION THRU THIS EVE IS NOT OUT OF LN FROM
WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE.
ORGNL DISC: MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
HEAVIEST SNFL OVR N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA AFT RN CHGS TO SN FROM N
TO S ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING LATER THIS MORN AND CONTG INTO THE
AFTN. SOME MODELS LIKE THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS HINT AT TWO BANDS OF
HEAVIER SNFL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE
UPPER LOW AS IT SCOOTS FAIRLY QUICKLY ESE OVR CNTRL AND SRN PTNS
OF THE FA THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE. THIS RELATIVELY QUICK MOTION OF
THE UPPER LOW COULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF HVY SN BANDING OVR ANY
PARTICULAR LCTNS TO A FEW HRS...BUT THIS IS ALL IT TAKES TO REACH
WRNG CRITERIA SNFL IF SN RATES ARE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HR.
SUBSEQUENTLY... THE CORRIDOR ZONE OF HEAVIEST SNFL WE CURRENTLY
SHOW COULD BE A SIMPLIFICATION OF WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURS IF THIS
EVENT IS MULTI- BANDED...HOWEVER LATEST FCST HRRR SIM RADAR
SUPPORTS THE 30 MILE SWRD SHIFT OF THE MAX SN AXIS WE MADE FROM
THE LAST MAJOR FCST UPDATE YSTDY AFTN. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE TO PRODUCE
PATCHY BLSN...WHICH WE INCLUDE FOR THOSE LCTNS REACHING AND
EXCEEDING LIKELY POPS AND SFC TEMPS LESS THAN 30.5 DEG F.
OTHERWISE...SN WILL TAPER TO SCT SN SHWRS BY LATE EVE AND THEN END
W TO E ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN CLDNSS....
SPCLY S OF KMLT LATE TNGT INTO ERLY FRI MORN AS TEMPS CONT TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH AND TEENS N FOR OVRNGT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SNOW SHOWERS...OR FLURRIES...WILL TOP OUT
UNDER H850. THUS...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TOWARDS BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST...LESS CLOUD COVER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TOWARDS BUCKSPORT AND MACHIAS
TO UPPER 20S FURTHER NORTH IN MADAWASKA AND FORT KENT. THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 20S. A FEW READINGS IN THE TEENS WOULDN`T BE ANY SURPRISE IN
THE ALLAGASH AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS MEANS LOW CUMULUS WILL FORM
AND SPREAD OUT INTO STRATOCUMULUS AND REMAIN IN PLACE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WHERE THE WIND
DIRECTION SUGGESTS A GREATER DEGREE OF DOWNSLOPING. THESE CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT SATURDAY`S HIGHS TO THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S. ANY UNFORESEEN BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS UNDER UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
STORY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT
THIS POINT. THERE IS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSING ON MONDAY AND A
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. ON THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
AND CHANCE POPS IN WASHINGTON COUNTY FOLLOWING GEFS GUIDANCE.
DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE FOR CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH CLEARING MORE
LIKELY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING RATHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING. THE
INVERSION ALSO KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN A RANGE OF 20S AT NIGHT AND
30S IN THE DAYTIME. THE BEST SHOT OF A COLDER NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT AFTER THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SEEMS LIKELY TO REESTABLISH CLOUDINESS UNDER
THE INVERSION.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT IN RN/FOG ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THIS MORN...TRANSITIONING TO SN FROM N TO S ACROSS THE SITES
BEGINNING LATE THIS MORN AT KFVE AND REACHING KBGR AND KBHB BY
EVE. IFR CONDITIONS IN SN THIS EVE IMPROVE W TO E OVRNGT TO MVFR
AS SN TAPERS TO SCT SN SHWRS AND THEN VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES
LATE TNGT INTO ERLY FRI MORN.
SHORT TERM: THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION NORTH OF HUL WILL BE LOW
MVFR CIGS...WITH TEMPORARY DROPS JUST BELOW 1000FT INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY. BGR AND BHB WILL BE MOSTLY VFR. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
SCATTERED SNSH WITH TOPS UNDER FL050 IN AREAS NORTH OF HUL.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE GLW OUTER MZS AND SCA FOR THE INNER
BAY/HARBOR MZ LATER TDY INTO TNGT AS N TO NW WINDS INCREASE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDING LATE TNGT INTO ERLY FRI MORN. WE WENT ABOUT A FOOT
HIGHER THAN WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM BASED ON TRENDS
SHOWN IN LATEST BUOY OBS.
SHORT TERM: NO SGNFCNT WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE POSSIBILITY
ON AN SCA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ011-031-
032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
242 PM PST THU DEC 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO CALIFORNIA
AND WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SILVER STATE. MORE WINTRY WEATHER
IS ON ITS WAY...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX ANTICIPATED TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND WILL IMPACT NORTHEAST NEVADA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. OVER ALL...THE GULF OF ALASKA IS
BECOMING ACTIVE AGAIN AND MORE SNOW STORMS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...AND MORE MODIFIED PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL WORKS ITS WAY INTO
NEVADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HRRR IS MUCH DRIER THAN
THE GFS OVER THE LKN CWA. AT 22Z THE TEMP AT KWMC WAS 58F WHILE
THE TEMP AT KEKO WAS 36F. THE PRECIP THAT DOES FALL IN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY TONIGHT WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX.THE SANTA ROSA RANGE WILL
GET SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW...ABOVE 6500 FEET. THE PRECIP WILL
BE MUCH SLOWER TO MOVE INTO ELKO COUNTY. THERE IS SOME AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINITY REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO ONE INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...SHORT-LIVED
WESTERLY WINDS...AND THEN THE SOUTHERN FLOW KICKS IN AGAIN ACROSS
THE LKN CWA ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM
THE GREAT BASIN...AND BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE
MEAN MAX TEMP FOR ELKO ON DEC 5TH AND DEC 6TH IS 39F.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. OVERALL THE PERIOD
LOOKS ACTIVE WITH AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE STORM
TRACK BEGINS NORTH OF THE AREA BUT GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH. BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD IS THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES WHERE WELL OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
SPECIFICALLY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE HITTING THE WEST COAST
SUNDAY MORNING...SETTING UP SW FLOW OVER THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYTEMS CONTAINS VERY HIGH WATER CONTENT (ATMOSPHERE RIVER)...THE
SIERRAS WILL STRIP MOST OF THE IT AS THE SYSTEMS LIFTS NE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND
ELKO COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE 500MB TROF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH...BUT OVERALL LITTLE IMPACT TO MOST OF
THE CWA. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS AND IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT; HOWEVER...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
MORE ALIGNED WEST TO EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE WHICH WAS MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION FOR
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES BEFORE THE TAIL END OF THE
500MB TROF PROGRESSES FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST TUESDAY. SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE 500MB TROF MAY DIG A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST SO
PRECIP COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF I80 FOR A SHORT TIME MONDAY NIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH MOST OF
THE CWA WILL SIMPLY EXPERIENCE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE IN WINDS
WITH THE WAVE. ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE...SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN
FAIRLY HIGH (7K TO 8K) WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS SO IF VALLEYS
RECEIVE ANY PRECIP MOST WILL BE IN FORM OF RAIN.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD
AND PROVIDES QUIET AND FAIRLY WARM (COMPARED TO RECENT TEMPS)
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IT QUICKLY
BREAKS DOWN AS A VERY STRONG JET (POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL COMBINED)
DRIVES ANOTHER WET SYSTEM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ONCE AGAIN THE SIERRAS WILL STRIP MOST OF THE MOISTURE...LEAVING
MOST OF THE AREA WITH CLOUD COVER...WINDY CONDITIONS...AND MILD
TEMPS. NOT SO MUCH THE CASE FOR AREAS NORTH OF I80...WHERE PRECIP
IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR THE NV/ID BORDER. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH INITIALLY...BUT
DROP TO MOST VALLEY FLOORS EARLY THURSDAY WHEN 500MB HEIGHTS
DECREASE TO 552-555DM. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE
WINDS...WHERE MANY AREAS COULD SEE WIND HEADLINES AS A 110-120KT
POLAR JET CUTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. CURRENT GRIDS DEPICTS THIS
WITH MANY HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING GUST TO NEAR 50KTS. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY THURSDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM HITS THE WEST
COAST. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS ONES...ALL MODELS INDICATE IT
DIGS SOUTHEAST AS THE JET MAX REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE 500MB
TROF. THIS LEADS TO PRECIP SPREADING THROUGHOUT THE AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SLIGHT TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES
AMONGST THE MODELS BUT THAT IS TO BE EXPECTED BEING A WEEK AWAY.
&&
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST IMPACTS FELT AT WMC AND EKO. CIGS LOWER TO NEAR MVFR BY
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AT WMC AND EKO WITH SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWERS FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD. CIGS LOWER AT ELY LATER BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THE OTHER IMPACT AT ELY IS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH GUST AOB 30KTS. NO
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES EXPECTED AT TPH WITH JUST HIGH CLOUD COVER. LOW
LEVEL ICING AND TURBULENCE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
97/85/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
601 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY...
WHICH WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY...OFFERING THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
FRIDAY. A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST VISIBLE SATL SHOWS MOST OF ILN/S COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS.
MORE BREAKS AND DRYING SHOWING UP ACRS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN INDIANA. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER ILLINOIS MOVING INTO
INDIANA. HRRR AND RAP FCST SOUNDING SOLNS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING BACK IN...WHILE THE GFS/NAM DRY IT OUT. HAVE
TRENDED FCST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS WITH THE BEST PERCENTAGES ACRS THE
NORTH. WHERE MORE CLEARING IS LKLY (ACRS THE SOUTH) A BETTER
CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR.
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ALLOWING FOR MORE CLOUDS WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION
BY FRIDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA
DURG THE DAY. EXPECT ANY CLOUDS OR FOG TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE AFTER MID MORNING. AFTER A SEASONABLY COOL START TO THE
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO
THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY EAST ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE AREA. EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS A LTL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP SATURDAY. SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.
EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW. SHOWERS
MAY BRUSH SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHEN
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL ACROSS OHIO. LOOK FOR DRY
CONDITIONS TO RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LATEST ECMWF RUN SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE ARRIVING THURSDAY. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO REFINE THE
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM.
PATTERN FEATURING ABOVE AVERAGE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS POINTS TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE UPPER
40S...WHILE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CLOUDS OVER THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN
PLACE TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE VERY SLOWLY ERODING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST...AND THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR THE
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES...THE CLOUDS ARE UNLIKELY TO BREAK
UP UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS MAY DROP BELOW 2000 FEET AT
TIMES...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT AN OCCASIONAL BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW
FOR BRIEF CLEAR SKIES...BUT THESE WILL NOT BE THE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS.
THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SCATTER OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING
CLEARING CONDITIONS AND VFR TAFS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
338 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY...
WHICH WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY...OFFERING THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
FRIDAY. A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST VISIBLE SATL SHOWS MOST OF ILN/S COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS.
MORE BREAKS AND DRYING SHOWING UP ACRS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN INDIANA. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER ILLINOIS MOVING INTO
INDIANA. HRRR AND RAP FCST SOUNDING SOLNS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING BACK IN...WHILE THE GFS/NAM DRY IT OUT. HAVE
TRENDED FCST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS WITH THE BEST PERCENTAGES ACRS THE
NORTH. WHERE MORE CLEARING IS LKLY (ACRS THE SOUTH) A BETTER
CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR.
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ALLOWING FOR MORE CLOUDS WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION
BY FRIDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA
DURG THE DAY. EXPECT ANY CLOUDS OR FOG TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE AFTER MID MORNING. AFTER A SEASONABLY COOL START TO THE
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO
THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY EAST ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE AREA. EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS A LTL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP SATURDAY. SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.
EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW. SHOWERS
MAY BRUSH SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHEN
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL ACROSS OHIO. LOOK FOR DRY
CONDITIONS TO RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LATEST ECMWF RUN SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE ARRIVING THURSDAY. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO REFINE THE
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM.
PATTERN FEATURING ABOVE AVERAGE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS POINTS TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE UPPER
40S...WHILE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME DRIER AIR JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST HAS ALLOWED FOR SIGNIFICANT CLEARING OVER PARTS OF ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA...AS WELL AS SOME CLOUD BREAKS OVER OHIO. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMING SOUTHEAST OFF
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE MVFR DECK
OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE
MAY BE SOME BRIEF BREAKS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE AT TIMES
BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME. AS THE
DRIER AIR TO OUR WEST SETTLES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EXPECT TO SEE THE CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCOUR
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIKELY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
1041 AM PST THU DEC 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
STRONG LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND OFF THE OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND ONSHORE ALONG THE WESTERN
WASHINGTON COAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...PRODUCING MORE
RAIN...AREAS OF STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY INLAND. THE COOLER ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SOME SNOW
IN THE CASCADES AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. ANOTHER STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS BROUGHT A ROUND OF STEADY RAIN FOR MOST...WITH
ADDITIONAL SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE GORGE
AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY REMAIN NEAR FREEZING AT THIS TIME...SO
EXPECT ADDITIONAL LIGHT ICING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY HAS DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY
THIS MORNING...HAVE DROPPED THE ICE STORM WARNING AND REPLACED IT
WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY WARM
ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY ENDING THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT HAS PIVOTED TO A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION JUST
OFFSHORE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF OF THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST. THIS SECONDARY LOW
WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST TROUGH THE DAY...MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE WESTERN WASHINGTON COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS
BEEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHAT TRACK THE LOW WILL TAKE AND
WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL...WHICH HAS MADE FORECASTING THE
ASSOCIATED WINDS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT. THE 17Z HRRR AND 12Z UW WRF-GFS
RUNS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR
QUILLAYUTE...WHICH IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS ANTICIPATING. AS A RESULT...THINK THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND HAVE DECIDED TO DOWNGRADE THE
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE INTERIOR I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY AND
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS. WILL STILL KEEP A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE INTERIOR...INCLUDING THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN SW
WASHINGTON AND ALL OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO BE FURTHEST NORTH...AND A BIT WEAKER DOWN IN THE CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COAST AND COAST RANGE ZONES...INCLUDING THE
WILLAPA HILLS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH TO BEGIN TO SURFACE
ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH
STRONG WINDS PROGRESSING FURTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...BRINGING A PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT
SHOULD ALSO FINALLY SCOUR THE COLD AIR FROM THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CASCADES AND ALLOW THE SURFACE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE FROM
EASTERLY TO WESTERLY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT HAS SOME COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BELOW CASCADE PASS ELEVATIONS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
THE CASCADES...BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT STAY SUSTAINED LONG
ENOUGH SO THERE MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH SNOW FOR A SNOW
ADVISORY...BUT IT COULD GET CLOSE NORTH. ALSO...WITH THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT MAY SEE SOME THUNDER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST.
ANOTHER MOIST FRONT WITH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS COMES IN THE NORTH PART
OF OUR FORECAST SATURDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN AND WIND. PYLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A NEW SYSTEM APPROXIMATELY EVERY
24 HRS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR
NORTH OREGON COAST. FLOODING SEEMS LIKELY TO BE A CONCERN AT LEAST
ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST DUE TO LITTLE
DOWN TIME BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS AND THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
CONTINUING TO BE OVER THIS SAME AREA.
SATURDAY`S SYSTEM TAPS INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION RIGHT NOW IS AIMED TO OUR NORTH...WITH HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR AREA STAYING ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR
NORTH OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE...AND MAYBE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THIS TRACK DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THIS TRACK COULD SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...MAINLY MIDDAY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE A BIT DRIER WITH A FEW POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS COME DOWN FOR SUNDAY WHICH
COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO THE PASSES. OUR NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW
LEVELS BACK UP ABOVE THE PASSES EARLY MONDAY WITH RAIN ALL DAY.
MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON TIMING WITH THESE SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT PATTERN OF A NEW SYSTEM EVERY 24 HOURS SEEMS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS INLAND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. LITTLE CHANGE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE WARM
SECTOR...THOUGH COLD FRONT JUST OFF THE WA/OR COAST AS OF 18Z WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWERING CIGS TO
AROUND 2500 FT BY EVENING...AND POSSIBLE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN.
E WINDS ONGOING THROUGH GORGE AND INTO EASTERN PDX METRO AREA...BUT
STRONG S WINDS DEVELOP ALONG COAST AND COAST RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45-
55 KT...AND GUSTY S WINDS TO 35 KT ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR.
WINDS EASE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE SOUTH FIRST AND THEN THE
NORTH A FEW HOURS LATER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR
POCKETS TONIGHT...AND ONGOING SHOWERS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY E
WINDS. INTRODUCED LLWS TO TAF WITH STRONG S WINDS AT 2000 FT AND
GUSTY E AT THE SURFACE...A COMBINATION OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR TO GET CLOSE OR MEET THRESHOLD. HOWEVER...SFC WINDS SHIFT FROM
E TO S AROUND 21-22Z BUT REMAIN GUSTY TO 25-35 KT THROUGH AROUND
03Z. FRONT BRINGS LOWERING MVFR CIGS...RAIN...AND POSSIBLE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH ONGOING SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CULLEN
&&
.MARINE...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG
SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS. BUOY 89
REPORTED 50 KT GUSTS EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH 26 FT SEAS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO REACH THE INNER WATERS IS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAY THE LOW IS TRACKING THINK THE NORTHERN
INNER WATERS ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEE THIS BURST OF EXTRA HIGH
WINDS AND SEAS THAN THE SOUTHERN. THE WINDS WILL BE VEERING WITH
WEST DURING THIS TIME. THE WINDS AND SEAS MAY LOWER QUICKER ACROSS
THE SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS.
WILL HAVE A BREAK BETWEEN STORMS FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL FALL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. A LONG PERIOD W-NW SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRIDAY. THE OFFSHORE BUOYS 46004 AND 46036 ARE DETECTING
THIS SWELL WITH OBSERVATIONS AROUND 17 FT AT 15 SECONDS. THIS
SWELL WILL DECAY TO AROUND 13 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN IT REACHES
THE OREGON WATERS LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT FRONT IS VERY STRONG AND HAS GREAT POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD GALES FRIDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING TO STORM FORCE GUSTS
SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL RISE TO ABOVE 20 FT WITH THIS FRONT
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR GREATER PORTLAND
METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COAST
RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON.
WA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR GREATER VANCOUVER
AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
PZ...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 AM
PST FRIDAY.
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
259 PM CST THU DEC 3 2015
.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODELS SUGGEST SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. LATEST
HRRR HANGS ONTO HIGHER LOW LEVEL RH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
THOUGH...SO SOMETHING WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LINGERING CLOUDS
WOULD ALSO CERTAINLY IMPACT LOWS TONIGHT.
KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THERE.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...LEANED TOWARD MILDER ECMWF AND
CANADIAN FOR TEMPS FRIDAY...AS GFS AND PARTICULARLY NAM SEEM
UNDERDONE ONCE AGAIN.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF TO LIFT INTO
WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE MUCH TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP...THIS FEATURE COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS. 925MB TEMPS WILL
HOVER AROUND 6-7C...BUT GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS...OUR
MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. THUS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
40S...THOUGH COULD JUST HIT 50 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A MID LEVEL TROF DRIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF BY THE TIME IT REACHES ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY. THE COLUMN REMAINS
VERY DRY AND THE DYNAMICS WEAKEN OVER WISCONSIN AS THE TROF AXIS
REACHES WI SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS STILL HINT AT A VERY SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WEST OF MADISON SUNDAY MORNING...SO WILL
KEEP THEM. SHOULD HAVE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN SATURDAY...STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
IT STILL LOOKS DRY WHILE WE SIT UNDER MOSTLY A SOUTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE WE/LL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. HIGH TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S /ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL/ WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE SHOWING THINGS GETTING A BIT UNSETTLED
EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH MILD TEMPS. SO ANY
PRECIP WOULD BE RAIN. RIGHT NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS
FAR OUT...SO WILL KEEP THE DRY LOOK THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
EXPECTING CLEARING TO CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
LATEST HRRR HOLDS ONTO CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NIGHT THOUGH...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON. IF LOW CLOUDS DO EXIT AS ANTICIPATED...SHOULD SEE ONLY
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THEN
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORM LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE HIGH BUILDS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS IN
PLACE. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS