Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/02/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 944 AM PST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER PASSING THROUGH THE BAY AREA TODAY MAY
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR RAIN SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY FROM
THE THE PENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH BAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF
RAIN AND WIND TO THE BAY AREA. DRY WEATHER QUICKLY RETURNS FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:07 AM PST MONDAY...FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. WEAK BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTH BAY AND ONTO THE SF PENINSULA. GETTING SOME
LIGHT RAIN REPORTS IN SONOMA COUNTY WITH 0.01-0.03 AMOUNTS SO FAR.
HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD AND MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY SHOWERS TODAY.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZE HEADLINES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL TO COLD WITH READINGS INTO THE 30S
BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S WITH MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A MODIFIED AIRMASS BEHIND TODAYS
BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME NICE WEATHER
TO START THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

NEXT ITEM OF FOCUS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALREADY HAVE THE 12Z NAM AND GFS MODELS WHICH
KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY WITH SOME SOUTH WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CURRENT TIMING WOULD PUT THE MAIN IMPACTS ON
THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE. STILL 4 DAYS OUT SO WILL HONE IN
ON THE TIMING DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EARLY QPF ESTIMATES
SUGGEST 0.25-0.75 ON AVERAGE WITH 1 INCH TOTALS IN THE FAVORED
COASTAL RANGES. SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH A SHOT OF GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNING SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING
WILL END BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEL DISCREPANCIES AFTER
THAT WITH INDICATIONS OF A WEAK SYSTEM BY SUNDAY OR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:50 AM PST MONDAY...BY 2 AM TEMPERATURES HAD
ALREADY DROPPED BELOW FREEZING AT SEVERAL INLAND LOCATIONS AND
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN SOME SPOTS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA THIS TIME...WHICH ALREADY APPEARS TO
BE BRINGING THE COOLING TO A HALT IN THE NORTH BAY. BUT FARTHER
SOUTH...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER COOLING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WILL KEEP
THE FREEZE WARNING GOING FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THE
WARNING COULD BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 9 AM AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER
AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MIX INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL BE
OUR LAST COLD NIGHT.

THE INCOMING FRONT DOES NOT YET SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND A
NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH CONTINUE
TO BE DETECTED ALONG THE FRONT. IT`S STILL LIKELY THAT THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD AND INTO THE DRY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA. BUT RECENT MODEL OUTPUT
INDICATES THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT COASTAL AREAS FROM SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY NORTHWARD WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY. BASED ON
THE LATEST HRRR...LIGHT RAIN WILL REACH THE NORTH BAY COAST BY MID
MORNING...AND SAN FRANCISCO AND SAN MATEO COUNTY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. MOST INLAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN COASTAL AREAS TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BUT DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA.

THE MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A RELATIVELY ROBUST PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING. A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIP AS
FAR SOUTH AS SONOMA COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE NAM
AND GFS KEEP THIS MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WON`T INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA UNTIL THURSDAY
WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND SPREADS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA
ON THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE
MODELS AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT
LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. BUT BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH RELATIVELY QUICKLY...OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. MODEL QPF FOR THE
THURSDAY EVENT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN INCH IN
THE SF BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND ABOUT A THIRD OF AN
INCH OF LESS FOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.

AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS FORECAST A
SURFACE LOW OF ABOUT 990 MB WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH OR
MORE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOSTLY
END BY FRIDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN INTO OUR REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:43 AM PST MONDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. THERE MAY
BE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO...BUT STILL FORECASTING MAINLY VFR.
CAPTURED SHOWERS WITH A VCSH. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A MORE
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH VFR AND ONLY HIGH CLOUDS. PT
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LAYER AROUND 3K FEET...BUT VERY THIN.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE A SCT DECK AROUND 3K FEET FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VCSH ONGOING THROUGH 19-20Z. CIGS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN HIGH. VFR TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY THE
TIME THE BOUNDARY REACHES MTR. WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
PD.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:37 AM PST MONDAY...A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND AT TIMES BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. A LONGER PERIOD SWELL WILL ALSO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT A LARGER SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 907 AM PST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER PASSING THROUGH THE BAY AREA TODAY MAY
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR RAIN SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY FROM
THE THE PENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH BAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF
RAIN AND WIND TO THE BAY AREA. DRY WEATHER QUICKLY RETURNS FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:07 AM PST MONDAY...FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. WEAK BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTH BAY AND ONTO THE SF PENINSULA. GETTING SOME
LIGHT RAIN REPORTS IN SONOMA COUNTY WITH 0.01-0.03 AMOUNTS SO FAR.
HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD AND MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY SHOWERS TODAY.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZE HEADLINES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL TO COLD WITH READINGS INTO THE 30S
BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S WITH MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A MODIFIED AIRMASS BEHIND TODAYS
BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME NICE WEATHER
TO START THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

NEXT ITEM OF FOCUS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALREADY HAVE THE 12Z NAM AND GFS MODELS WHICH
KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY WITH SOME SOUTH WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CURRENT TIMING WOULD PUT THE MAIN IMPACTS ON
THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE. STILL 4 DAYS OUT SO WILL HONE IN
ON THE TIMING DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EARLY QPF ESTIMATES
SUGGEST 0.25-0.75 ON AVERAGE WITH 1 INCH TOTALS IN THE FAVORED
COASTAL RANGES. SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH A SHOT OF GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNING SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING
WILL END BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEL DISCREPANCIES AFTER
THAT WITH INDICATIONS OF A WEAK SYSTEM BY SUNDAY OR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:50 AM PST MONDAY...BY 2 AM TEMPERATURES HAD
ALREADY DROPPED BELOW FREEZING AT SEVERAL INLAND LOCATIONS AND
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN SOME SPOTS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA THIS TIME...WHICH ALREADY APPEARS TO
BE BRINGING THE COOLING TO A HALT IN THE NORTH BAY. BUT FARTHER
SOUTH...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER COOLING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WILL KEEP
THE FREEZE WARNING GOING FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THE
WARNING COULD BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 9 AM AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER
AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MIX INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL BE
OUR LAST COLD NIGHT.

THE INCOMING FRONT DOES NOT YET SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND A
NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH CONTINUE
TO BE DETECTED ALONG THE FRONT. IT`S STILL LIKELY THAT THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD AND INTO THE DRY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA. BUT RECENT MODEL OUTPUT
INDICATES THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT COASTAL AREAS FROM SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY NORTHWARD WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY. BASED ON
THE LATEST HRRR...LIGHT RAIN WILL REACH THE NORTH BAY COAST BY MID
MORNING...AND SAN FRANCISCO AND SAN MATEO COUNTY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. MOST INLAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN COASTAL AREAS TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BUT DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA.

THE MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A RELATIVELY ROBUST PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING. A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIP AS
FAR SOUTH AS SONOMA COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE NAM
AND GFS KEEP THIS MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WON`T INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA UNTIL THURSDAY
WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND SPREADS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA
ON THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE
MODELS AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT
LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. BUT BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH RELATIVELY QUICKLY...OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. MODEL QPF FOR THE
THURSDAY EVENT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN INCH IN
THE SF BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND ABOUT A THIRD OF AN
INCH OF LESS FOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.

AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS FORECAST A
SURFACE LOW OF ABOUT 990 MB WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH OR
MORE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOSTLY
END BY FRIDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN INTO OUR REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:59 AM PST MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EPAC MOVES EAST OVER NORCAL TODAY. A COOL FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH HOWEVER IT IS ALSO WEAKENING...BUT THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE 12Z OAKLAND SOUNDING INDICATES A DRY LAYER PERSISTING FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO ALMOST 10K FEET THIS MORNING THEN IT`S SOMEWHAT MORE
MOIST FROM 10K-13K FEET. GOES SATELLITE LIFR PROBABILITY AND AREA
METARS BOTH INDICATE VFR THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES TODAY
BASED ON THIS. THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEADY INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY WHICH GRADUALLY LOWERS TO MVFR
CATEGORY LATE TODAY...12Z TAFS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS
IDEA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR TODAY. VCSH 22Z-02Z...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MVFR CIG BY 02Z THIS EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SE WINDS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST THIS
MORNING AT KSNS AND KMRY DUE TO COMBINED NIGHT-TIME COOLING/DRAINAGE
WINDS AS WELL AS SOME OVERLAP ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE BY THE APPROACHING
EPAC TROUGH. HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING VARIABLE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:36 AM PST MONDAY...A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND AT TIMES BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. A LONGER PERIOD SWELL WILL ALSO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT A LARGER SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1047 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

UPDATED POPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE. /HODANISH


UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS BASED OFF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
APPEARS BRUNT OF PRECIP FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR MAY BE OVER FOR THE
MOST PART...HOWEVER THE TROUGH IS STILL TO OUR WEST. BEST CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WILL BE EL PASO COUNTY.

BAND OF STEADIER SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF SE COLO. /HODANISH

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015


BUMPED UP POPS ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR. HRRR SHOWS SNOW CONTINUING FOR
A FEW HOURS ALONG I-25 AND THEN MOVING OUT AOA 11 PM-ISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

THE UPR LOW WILL BE OVER WY TONIGHT WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY COMING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOW AND OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE CONTDVD
FIRST...AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING SO WL ADD
THAT TO THE FORECAST.

THE HRRR SHOWS BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING OVR THE ERN
MTNS...I-25 CORRIDOR...THEN MOVING EASTWARD AND LOOKING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACRS THE FAR SERN PLAINS.  THE NAM GENERALLY SHOWS 2-3
INCHES ACROSS TELLER AND NRN EL PASO COUNTIES...AND ACROSS THE FAR
SERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH 3-5 INCHES OVR MTN AREAS AND AROUND 1
INCH OVR MUCH OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM KCOS AND SOUTHWARD. THE GFS
IS SIMILAR BUT DOES NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH OVR THE MTNS AND OVER THE
FAR SERN PLAINS IT SHOWS ABOUT 2-6 INCHES OVERNIGHT. IF BANDS DO SET
UP...AREA UNDER THE BANDS COULD GET A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION THAN
LOCATIONS WITHOUT.  HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM FOR
SNOW AMOUNTS...WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST AREAS.

MON MORNING SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVR THE MTNS AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS.  AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...THERE SHOULD ONLY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS
BY AFTERNOON.  ALSO...AS WESTERLY FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE UPR
TROF...THE LOW LEVEL MSTR/CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT AND THE
PLAINS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

...WARMER WEEK AHEAD...

A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE COMING
WEEK...WHICH WILL GIVE US MORE SUN AND WARMER WX TO START THE
METEOROLOGIC WINTER OFF.

A FEW LINGERING SHSN OVER THE CENTRAL MTS MON NIGHT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TRAILING
DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING A FEW FLURRIES AND INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE
MTS TUE EVENING. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S WED-
THU...THEN POSSIBLY MID-UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS SW
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND ON HOW STRONG TO EXPECT THE TROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
SYSTEM...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK PROBABLY THAT
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
PERIOD...SO HAVE RAISED ENSEMBLE-BASED POPS SOMEWHAT SO THAT POPS
ARE AT LEAST CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGIC AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FOG
EXPECTED AT COS AND PUB THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS UPPER
LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE STATE. DEVELOPING WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY
DEVELOP AFT 12Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1034 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS BASED OFF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
APPEARS BRUNT OF PRECIP FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR MAY BE OVER FOR THE
MOST PART...HOWEVER THE TROUGH IS STILL TO OUR WEST. BEST CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WILL BE EL PASO COUNTY.

BAND OF STEADIER SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF SE COLO. /HODANISH

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR. HRRR SHOWS SNOW CONTINUING FOR
A FEW HOURS ALONG I-25 AND THEN MOVING OUT AOA 11 PM-ISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

THE UPR LOW WILL BE OVER WY TONIGHT WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY COMING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOW AND OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE CONTDVD
FIRST...AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING SO WL ADD
THAT TO THE FORECAST.

THE HRRR SHOWS BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING OVR THE ERN
MTNS...I-25 CORRIDOR...THEN MOVING EASTWARD AND LOOKING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACRS THE FAR SERN PLAINS.  THE NAM GENERALLY SHOWS 2-3
INCHES ACROSS TELLER AND NRN EL PASO COUNTIES...AND ACROSS THE FAR
SERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH 3-5 INCHES OVR MTN AREAS AND AROUND 1
INCH OVR MUCH OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM KCOS AND SOUTHWARD. THE GFS
IS SIMILAR BUT DOES NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH OVR THE MTNS AND OVER THE
FAR SERN PLAINS IT SHOWS ABOUT 2-6 INCHES OVERNIGHT. IF BANDS DO SET
UP...AREA UNDER THE BANDS COULD GET A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION THAN
LOCATIONS WITHOUT.  HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM FOR
SNOW AMOUNTS...WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST AREAS.

MON MORNING SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVR THE MTNS AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS.  AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...THERE SHOULD ONLY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS
BY AFTERNOON.  ALSO...AS WESTERLY FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE UPR
TROF...THE LOW LEVEL MSTR/CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT AND THE
PLAINS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

...WARMER WEEK AHEAD...

A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE COMING
WEEK...WHICH WILL GIVE US MORE SUN AND WARMER WX TO START THE
METEOROLOGIC WINTER OFF.

A FEW LINGERING SHSN OVER THE CENTRAL MTS MON NIGHT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TRAILING
DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING A FEW FLURRIES AND INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE
MTS TUE EVENING. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S WED-
THU...THEN POSSIBLY MID-UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS SW
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND ON HOW STRONG TO EXPECT THE TROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
SYSTEM...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK PROBABLY THAT
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
PERIOD...SO HAVE RAISED ENSEMBLE-BASED POPS SOMEWHAT SO THAT POPS
ARE AT LEAST CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGIC AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FOG
EXPECTED AT COS AND PUB THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS UPPER
LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE STATE. DEVELOPING WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY
DEVELOP AFT 12Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

 934 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

.UPDATE...AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE IS STILL
EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...DESPITE WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS PRECEDING A SHEARED OUT FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR AND SREF INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEA FOG DRIFTING INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH SOME RADIATIONAL
FOG EXPANDING INLAND LATE TONIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN DID NOT WANT TO
GO TOO PESSIMISTIC AS THIS TIME GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WITH APPROACHING FRONTAL
ZONE. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.MARINE...LIGHT EAST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING VEER SSW
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 KTS. COMBINED SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE TODAY. LOW RISK EXPECTED WED.

&&

.AVIATION...DESPITE ABUNDANT PASSING HIGH CIRRUS AND POCKETS OF
SCT-BKN LOW AND MID CLOUDS DENSE MAINLY RADIATIONAL FOG WAS ABLE
TO FORM LAST NIGHT DUE TO DECOUPLING AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TONIGHT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER SIMILAR SET-UP FOR FOG COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT WITH THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF
AND HRRR PEGGING THE ATLANTIC COAST FOR SEA FOG FORMATION
GENERALLY N OF SGJ WITH THE BANK DRIFTING INLAND IMPACTING THE I95
CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNRISE. ADVERTISED DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS AT
SSI...JAX...CRG AND VQQ BETWEEN 02-04Z. GUIDANCE WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS AT SSI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH MID-MORNING WED AFTER SUNRISE...AND CONTINUED
WITH THIS TREND. INTRODUCED VCSH LATE WED AFTN WITH SHOWERS
PRECEDING THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT UNDER SW FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED WED BEFORE
COOL DOWN THU/FRI.

RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...
JAX 84/1991...GNV 85/1982...AMG 81/1982...SSI 79/1982.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  78  48  63 /  10  60  40   0
SSI  62  76  54  63 /  10  40  40  10
JAX  63  82  56  66 /  10  30  30  10
SGJ  64  81  59  65 /  10  20  20  20
GNV  63  83  58  68 /  10  30  20  20
OCF  65  83  60  69 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/PETERSON/WALSH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 308 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS AXIS REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND
WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO THE AREA BY TOMORROW...ALLOWING WINDS TO
VEER FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST (CURRENTLY) TO SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS DRY AND STABLE
ALOFT...SO WILL NEED TO LOOK TO THE LOW LEVELS FOR ANY PROSPECT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THROUGH SUNSET/TONIGHT...WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (AS EVIDENT ON
THE MOST RECENT CAPE 915 MHZ PROFILERS) WILL MAINTAIN
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE INTERIOR. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY...RIDGE AXIS SETTLES CLOSER TO THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF SOME ONSHORE
MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.
POPS REMAIN LOW ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

TUE NIGHT...ESE LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH
MILD LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

WED...LOW LVL S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NRN FL IN
THE AFTN WILL ALLOW FOR WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ESPEC ACROSS FAR SRN
AREAS IN THE AFTN WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AIDED BY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR AND JUST INLAND
FROM THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER.

WED NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL FL AND MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS THE SRN FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS
NRN AREAS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. THE SHALLOW FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MID LVL UPGLIDE WITH ENHANCED
LIFT NEAR H7 AND ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE LIFT DEVELOPING DEVELOPING
ON THE IN RR ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPPER JET NEAR THE MID ATLC.

THU...STRONG UPGLIDE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER AND DEEPER JET INDUCED LIFT
WILL SPELL HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHTNING
STORM ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST ON THU. MODEL
QPF AMOUNT INDICATE LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIRMASS FROM 2.0 TO
2.2 INCHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
FROM 70 PCT SOUTH TO 40-50 PCT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.

THU NIGHT-MONDAY...ECMWF/GFS STILL IN DIFFERENT CAMPS WITH SPEED AND
EVOLUTION OF S/W TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE S/W TO OUR EAST
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AS THE SYSTEM GETS CUT
OFF BY A BUILDING MID LVL RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLC. HAVE LEANED TWD
THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE.
WILL CONTINUE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES SRN SECTIONS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NRN AREAS. WILL SEE SCATTERED ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS IN BOTH SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AND STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIKELY BECOMING WINDY
ALONG THE COAST FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TWD THE MID ATLC. STILL LARGE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT S/W TROUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE A CHANCE OF ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS INTO MONDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
BROKEN/OVERCAST VFR CEILINGS (040-050) LINGERING THROUGH SUNSET
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. VFR ALONG THE COAST OUTSIDE OF BRIEF -SHRA
MOVING ONSHORE (GENERALLY SOUTH OF KTIX). SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS...ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH WEAKER NEAR-SURFACE
WINDS...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS (CURRENTLY OVER NORTH
FLORIDA) SETTLES CLOSER TO THE AREA...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO
WEAKEN AND VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM CURRENT 4-6 FEET TO 3-5 FEET ON TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE WHERE
LINGERING 6-FOOT SWELLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

WED-SAT...SWELLS WILL DIMINISH INTO MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. INITIAL WIND SURGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MAY ELEVATE WINDS
TO SCEC LEVELS THU AND THEN ONSHORE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FRIDAY.
STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND 9-12 FT OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  80  66  80 /  10  20  10  20
MCO  65  83  66  84 /  10  20  10  20
MLB  67  81  68  83 /  20  20  10  20
VRB  67  82  66  83 /  20  20  10  20
LEE  63  82  67  82 /  10  10  10  20
SFB  66  83  66  82 /  10  20  10  20
ORL  66  83  68  83 /  10  20  10  20
FPR  69  81  67  83 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ULRICH
LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER....VOLKMER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 246 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

Initial batch of light rain has exited the forecast area early this
afternoon, however some patches of drizzle were persisting in the
low stratus. Next wave of light rain was crossing the Missouri
border near Quincy as of 2 pm, with some light rain/drizzle seen on
radar as far southwest as southwest Missouri. Have concentrated the
highest PoP`s into this evening across areas west of I-55 and
increased them somewhat.

Latest water vapor imagery showing large upper low centered over
Nebraska this afternoon. Dry slot is spreading northeast out of
Oklahoma and Kansas, and marks the back edge of the precipitation
shield along the cold front. A steady decrease in rain chances will
occur from west to east after midnight as this drier air arrives.
Latest RAP guidance suggests the cold front moving into areas near
the Illinois River in the 2-3 am time frame, reaching the Indiana
border toward 6 am. Until the front gets here, temperatures across
the forecast area likely to remain fairly steady this evening, and
most of the night across eastern Illinois.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

The slow moving upper low is forecast to be located over extreme
northwest Iowa Tuesday morning with a well defined dry slot pushing
into southwest Illinois. Most of the rain that occurs overnight
should be off to our east Tuesday morning with a decrease in cloud
cover from southwest to northeast during the morning. Soundings
continue to suggest gusty southwest winds during the day with
temperatures at or just above normal again, mostly in the 40s. The
upper low is then forecast to shift mostly east into southern
Wisconsin by Wednesday morning, which is a bit further south than
what we had been seeing, although the 12z ECMWF from yesterday was
hinting at this. The surface low will push across the lower Great
Lakes as well with a shortwave pivoting southeast into the area late
Tue. night into Wednesday morning which may bring some patchy light
snow or flurries to parts of the area.

With the further south position of the upper/surface lows, the wrap-
around moisture will drive further southeast into our forecast area
as well with some low chance POPs on Wednesday for flurries in the
morning, and sprinkles or flurries in the afternoon as the low level
cyclonic flow dominates into Wednesday night/early Thursday.
Temperatures will be colder as well during the day Wednesday with
afternoon readings in the upper 30s far north to the middle 40s
south, which is close to where they should be this time of year. A
rather quiet weather pattern will prevail through the remainder of
the extended forecast period as the deep upper low shifts away from
the Midwest with 500 mb heights building across the region. This
should result in a gradual moderating trend for the end of the week
with afternoon temperatures by Friday well into the 40s to low 50s.

No sign of any breakdown in the mild pattern for us into early next
week as the main longwave trof will be across the western part of
the country which should result in above normal temperatures for
much of our area through the weekend. A trof is expected to eject
east-northeast into the Southern Plains Sunday and into Missouri by
next Monday bringing a chance for rain to the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

IFR/LIFR ceilings continue to overspread central Illinois. Initial
band of showers has exited most of the TAF sites, but will see
some periods of drizzle and lower visibilities continue this
afternoon until more substantial showers move in from Missouri.
Not much change in earlier thinking on the timing of the cold
front passage between 08-12Z, which will quickly lift ceilings
behind it and VFR should prevail shortly after sunrise. Slow-
moving upper low will result in an increase in ceilings below
3,000 feet from the northwest later on Tuesday, with KPIA most
likely to see these arrive toward midday.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Geelhart




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 259 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS LESS THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

CONTINUED DRY EASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT OUR AREA DRY TODAY AND WILL
DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP THIS EVENING. BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE AFTER 00Z AS 850MB FLOW VEERS AND ADVECTS 6 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS INTO THE CWA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
THIS PUSH...BUT WITH THE BETTER FORCING TO THE NW AND THE BEST
MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...EXPECT TOTAL PRECIP TO BE LESS THAN
0.10" FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 16/17Z RAP/HRRR
WHICH BRING VERY LITTLE RAIN THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. THIS ADDED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING WITH IT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z. SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO STAY IN THE 5 TO 6 KNOT RANGE WHICH WILL
KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE. ALTHOUGH...IF WINDS GO CALM
TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS A CONCERN. INCREASED POPS FOR THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY TO BETTER REFLECT THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE THROUGH THE AREA
BY MID-DAY TOMORROW AS THE DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND ATTENDANT/SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SWINGS EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
DECENT TROP PRESSURE ADVECTION WITH VORT LOBE WRAP THROUGH...AND
PROGGED AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW...WARRANTED AN
INCREASE IN POPS INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND POINTS ESE INTO THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
HIGHER POPS/COVERAGE STILL ANTICIPATED IN THE NNW WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE...WITH PTYPE MAINLY SNOW NORTHWEST TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 GIVEN MORE MARGINAL NEAR SFC
TEMPS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS (<0.5") ON MAINLY GRASSY
SFCS IN NW INDIANA/SW LOWER MICHIGAN. RIDGING ALOFT THEN BUILDS
IN THEREAFTER WILL FAIR WX AND GRADUAL WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

TRENDED TOWARDS MORE PESSIMISTIC CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TONIGHT
AT KFWA WITH LATEST HRRR AND RAP SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
CEILINGS BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUM TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AS WELL...BUT IT APPEARS WINDS MAY STAY
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG POTENTIAL
SUPPRESSED. TOOK KFWA TAF RIGHT TO ALTERNATE MINIMUM
THRESHOLDS AND WILL LET EVENING SHIFT REASSESS FOG/LOW CIG
POTENTIAL FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. KEPT KSBN AT MVFR ATTM...WITH THE
LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH...IF THE STRATUS DECK ADVECTS 20 TO 30 MILES
FURTHER WEST THAN IT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED...CONDITIONS AT KSBN
MAY REDUCE TO IFR OR ALTERNATE MINIMUM AS WELL.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...BENTLEY


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 1254 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS LESS THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

RICHER MOISTURE LAID OUT FAR SOUTH OF CWA ACROSS TN VALLEY INTO
OZARKS. DEEP EASTERLY COMPONENT FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MOISTURE AT
ABEYANCE UNTIL EVENING. THEREAFTER...CWA QUICKLY ENVELOPED FROM
SOUTH AND WEST WITH 6 G/KG 1000-850MB LAYER ISOHUME SURGING INTO
FAR NERN CWA BY 03 UTC. TWO FOCUSED AREAS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEAR TO SPLIT CWA WITH ONE FOCUS AREA ACROSS NORTHERN
IL/SOUTHERN WI WITH ARDENT ORTHOGONAL FLOW TO I295K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE AND A MORE VEERED LOWER LEVEL/I300K AXIS SURGING NEWD FROM
TN/KY INTO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WHILE SOME CONCERN OF SPLIT
BETWEEN SYSTEM...SUSPECT OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF SUDDEN/DEEPLY
VERTICAL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE /WITH A LESSENED ROLE PLACED
UPON HIGH ANTECEDENT LOW LEVEL CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS/ TO
PROVIDE HIGH PROB/RATHER LOW QPF EVENT. HIGHEST POPS/QPF 30-09 UTC
ACROSS NWRN HALF CWA PROXIMAL TO BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP LAYER
ASCENT/EASTERN FRINGE OF DYNAMIC 200M/12 HR 5H HEIGHT FALL
CENTROID AS CENTRAL ROCKIES CUTOFF LOW EMERGES ENEWD TO NWRN IA BY
DAYBREAK TUE. DERISIVE EFFECT OF DRY SLOT AS IT SURGES FROM
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SWRN CWA AROUND DAYBREAK MAY MAY START TO
ERODE BACK EDGE/SWRN EXTENT OF RAIN SHIELD BY DAYBREAK...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN/SRN CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

STRONG PUSH OF ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION
TO BRING A QUICK END TO PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF I-69 FROM 12-15Z
BUT BY AND LARGE EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE PRIMARILY DRY. SHOULD EVEN
SEE SOME AREAS OF SUN BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRENGTH OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION. LATEST GFS STILL INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
DECENT WIND GUSTS MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH ABRUPT DESCENT AND MIXING
FROM 285K/875MB WHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE AROUND 30 KTS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING HAZARDOUS BUT COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS/VORT MAX THEN ROTATES OVER OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIGHT UP A ROUND OF LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS. DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WORKING IN CONCERT WITH
SOME MARGINAL LAKE INSTABILITY AND THETA-E FLUX WILL LEAD TO NUM
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD WITH LOWER CHANCES THE FURTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ROUGHLY 09Z-21Z WEDNESDAY.
LEFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY BUT SOME CONCERN FOR A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS IN THE 00-03Z TIMEFRAME. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MARGINAL SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WILL PREVENT ANY REAL ACCUMULATION. STILL THINK SOME
RAIN COULD MIX IN DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED SURFACE WET BULBS. OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES
WEST OF I-69 COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING WEDNESDAY MORNING IF PRECIP
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH AND RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
MARGINAL SURFACE/GROUND TEMPS. ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT
THOUGH...LESS THAN A HALF INCH. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL ADD TO THE "RAW" FEEL. DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS LONGWAVE RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

TRENDED TOWARDS MORE PESSIMISTIC CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TONIGHT
AT KFWA WITH LATEST HRRR AND RAP SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
CEILINGS BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUM TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AS WELL...BUT IT APPEARS WINDS MAY STAY
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG POTENTIAL
SUPPRESSED. TOOK KFWA TAF RIGHT TO ALTERNATE MINIMUM
THRESHOLDS AND WILL LET EVENING SHIFT REASSESS FOG/LOW CIG
POTENTIAL FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. KEPT KSBN AT MVFR ATTM...WITH THE
LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH...IF THE STRATUS DECK ADVECTS 20 TO 30 MILES
FURTHER WEST THAN IT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED...CONDITIONS AT KSBN
MAY REDUCE TO IFR OR ALTERNATE MINIMUM AS WELL.




&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...BENTLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 607 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH AN 850
MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN...THROUGH INDIANA...AND INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS. A TROF RAN FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW WRAP AROUND CLOUDS FROM THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS IOWA WITH SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LITTLE
IF ANY CLOUDS RAN FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

18Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NEAR KRWF. THE MAIN
FRONT RAN EAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THEN SOUTH INTO
OHIO AND THEN MISSISSIPPI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND HIGHER
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

RADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT
WEST OF A FREEPORT TO OTTUMWA LINE. BASED ON RAP TRENDS...THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS GENERALLY WEST OF A KRFD TO KIRK LINE. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE ON THE GRASS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES
ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO THE SNOW SHOULD MELT ON THE ROADS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE NEW SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
WISCONSIN. THE BETTER CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF I-
80 AND ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE A DUSTING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE NOCTURNAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY IN
THE LATE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD AGAIN BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.

NEW DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE EAST OF I-39. THE QUESTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS WILL THERE BE ANY NEW ACCUMULATION. AT BEST THERE MAY
BE A DUSTING ON THE GRASS OR ELEVATED SURFACES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REACH NEAR 50 THIS WEEKEND.

LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL TURN TO SW FLOW LATE DURING THE WEEK.
MODERATION UNDER THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH THE SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY COULD BE AS HIGH AS 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE MID WEEK.

MID WEEKEND AN ADVANCING MID LEVEL WAVE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND FLOW.  HOWEVER...THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE LEADING TO LIMITED
FORECASTABILITY FOR ANY PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.  THIS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  REGARDLESS...MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND QUIET
WEATHER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REGION TO REMAIN UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW RESULTING IN LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 2
MILES OR LESS FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME WITH BASES DOWN TO 1-2K AGL.
OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES TO BE 6 PLUS MILES WITH CEILING AOA 3K AGL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 415 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

DRY SLOT CURRENTLY WORKING INTO IOWA WITH BROAD PRECIPITATION AREA
LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST IS RAIN AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.  HOWEVER...STILL SOME MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW
IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WITH ONLY SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST.  AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN FROM TWO TO FIVE INCHES IN FAR WEST CENTRAL TO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST.  BOTH THE NAM AND THE HRRR INDICATE SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ON NORTHERN EDGE OF DRY SLOT THIS EVENING AND ANTICIPATE
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION PERSISTING MAINLY NORTH OF I80.
THEREAFTER...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS TROF AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE. MAY
BEGIN TO SEE SOME WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL EDGE INTO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN AS WELL THAT WITH SOME LACK OF SATURATION
ALOFT...FREEZING DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH.  THIS STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE THREAT IN THE ZONES.  AS FOR
HEADLINES...ADJUSTED AREAS AFTER MIDDAY AND WILL LEAVE CURRENT
ALIGNMENT IN PLACE FOR NOW UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF PCPN MOVES THRU.
LIKELY WILL SEE SOME CANCELLATION AND/OR DOWNGRADE OF MUCH OF THE
WARNING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF FINAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
CROSSING MISSOURI RIVER INTO WESTERN IOWA.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

BROAD UPPER LOW IMPACTING THE STATE...AND CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST SLOWLY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MOVING OVER IOWA TUESDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM WRAPPED UP WITH A CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD LIFT WITH THE LOW ALOFT...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE SO ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LIFT SO ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...WITH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS AND ALSO MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY SOME
LINGERING LIGHT FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITH LOW CLOUDS REMAINING IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE CLEARING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. H85 TEMPS
WARM ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL US ALOFT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE WITH H85 TEMP CLIMBING
TO AROUND +6C TO +8C OR HIGHER BY SATURDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL US BY MONDAY...WHICH
COULD INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY STAY TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
IOWA...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED IF IT DOES.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AS LARGE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. CEILINGS WILL BE
VERY LOW WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES DUE TO FALLING RAIN AND
SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT WITH
VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO IFR
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
AUDUBON-CASS-DALLAS-GUTHRIE.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-GREENE-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR BOONE-BREMER-
BUTLER-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HARDIN-STORY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...COGIL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 314 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW IN SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH AN 850MB
WARM FRONT RUNNING FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL IOWA. LARGE AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE RAN FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND OHIO
VALLEYS. RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS AN EXPANDING AREA OF
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN IOWA.

18Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW JUST SOUTH OF KOMA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RUNNING SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 30S AND HIGHER FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. RAP MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE THE RAIN SHOULD EXPAND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS INDICATES A LACK OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF MISSOURI. THUS THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT THE RAIN MAY START
ENDING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND END ACROSS
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.

THERMAL PROFILES SHOW THE PRECIPITATION BEING ALL RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERMAL PROFILES START
COOLING AS THE FORCING EXITS THE AREA. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES
WILL THE RAIN END BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. BASED ON WHAT THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT SHOULD END UP BEING
ALL RAIN...OR...THERE MIGHT BE A VERY BRIEF MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION ENDING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE WRAP AROUND CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. AS COLDER
AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA...FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND MID DAY IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA AND SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A TRACE TO DUSTING AT BEST AND SHOULD ONLY OCCUR
ON ELEVATED SURFACES OR GRASS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
NIGHT.  AFTER THIS PERIOD...RIDGING MOVES IN AND A WARMING TREND
TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

H5 CLOSED LOW SLOWLY ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH OCCLUDED
SFC LOW WILL LEAD TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.  H5 CVA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE
FORCING...IT APPEARS THAT WHILE THE TEMP PROFILE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...THERE IS A LACK OF LOW LEVEL RISING MOTION
AND PRODUCTION OF SNOW.  THE BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 OVERNIGHT.  AS SUCH...WENT WITH LOW CHC SN- ACROSS THIS
AREA WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND OCCURS.   HIRES 4KM NAM SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...THIS SUPPORTS THE GFS AND
LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING.

REST OF THE EXTENDED...

H5 RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL LEAD TO QUIET
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A WARMING PATTERN
WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AVERAGE AND THEN ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS WEEKEND.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW AND THE SUBSEQUENT WARMING OF TEMPS.  AFTER
THIS...ANOTHER H5 TROF APPROACHES THE AREA.  PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  IT IS TOO SOON WITH THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO DETERMINE IF PRECIP AT NIGHT WILL BE FROZEN
OR LIQUID.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

SATELLITE INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
EASTERN IOWA...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS ALSO INDICATE A GROWING AREA
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MISSOURI INTO WESTERN IOWA.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DECAY TO MVFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
00Z/01 WITH SOME LIFR POSSIBLE. AFT 00Z/01 WIDESPREAD LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH
RAIN. AFT 06Z/01 A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

 1154 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

20Z water vapor imagery shows an upper low over UT cut off from the
mean westerlies with a vort max rotating around the southwest quad
of the upper low. A fetch of mid level moisture continues to feed
into the central plains within southwest flow, although it is
shifted a little further east. At the surface, a broad area of high
pressure remains over the region. Current trends show the surface
high weakening this morning. Temps have effectively been steady with
overcast skies an neutral temperature advection.

The weather will get worse for north central and parts of northeast
KS before getting better. Models continue to show large scale
forcing overspreading the forecast area as the vort max over Las
Vegas lifts through the central plains late tonight. Large scale
assent is progged to overspread the area leading to widespread
precip overnight and Monday morning. Unfortunately the cold air at
the surface is likely to remain right about where it is. Models seem
to gradually be coming into agreement with the thermal profiles,
although the GFS continues to be the warmer solution while the HRRR
and RAP tend to keep the freezing line about where it is now. From a
big picture view, temps will be steady through the night. However
from a perspective of the precip type forecast, where the freezing
line sets up will have a major impact. The forecast tends to regard
the GFS as a slightly warm outlier which has verified to warm
recently. With this in mind think an axis of freezing rain from
Abilene through Marysville is probable. Models are generating
between a third and a half inch of QPF with the system overnight.
With temps expected to be right at or a degree or two colder than
freezing, think significant ice accumulations are possible and I
have a quarter to a third of an inch within that corridor. The model
forecast soundings also show a small window across north central KS
where there is ice in the cloud and a thermal profile hovering
around freezing. This could allow for some minor accumulations of
snow from Concordia to Washington and northwest. At this point it
looks like there could be around an inch of snow just west of the
axis if ice accumulations. From Emporia to Topeka and areas east,
temperatures are expected to remain just above freezing through the
night with precip remaining all rain. I am relatively confident in
this scenario happening, but there is a higher than normal risk in
being off on the location depending on where freezing temps set up.
Will issue a warning for the areas most likely to see the damaging
ice accumulations and have an advisory in the remaining north
central counties for a mix of freezing rain and snow.

Models are still on track in lifting the forcing north of the area
during the afternoon. Therefore precip should taper off during the
day. As the surface low lifts north, a Pacific cold front sweeps
through shifting winds to the west with weak cold air advection
occurring. Since there should not be a lot of insolation, afternoon
highs Monday are not anticipated to be much more than 5 or 10
degrees warmer than the morning temps.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

Tomorrow night the mid/upper level low pressure center is forecast
to lift northeastward over the upper Midwest. There is the potential
for a shortwave rotating around the main mid level low to pass
over northeast KS during the day Tuesday. Models are indicating
fairly light precip is possible near the NE state line in the form
of rain or snow. After that there is a trend of quiet weather going
through next weekend. This current system will push the moisture well
into the gulf for several days as a reinforcing trough drops down
from western Canada. Surface high pressure gradually migrates
across the central US with temperatures warming into the 40s and
50s by the end of the week. Towards the end of the weekend a mid
level low pressure digs over the southern Rockies and eventually
the plains. This system will have some return flow ahead of it
although the moisture appears limited for now. This system has a
better chance of producing mostly rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

Developing light rain and drizzle are advancing toward the
terminals with KMHK already seeing -RA. High confidence that a
prolonged period of low GIGS/VIS will hinder operations at all
terminals probably through most of the TAF period. Lower
confidence exists in exactly how low GIG/VIS conditions go down
to. Some guidance suggests that the sites may all go into the
VLIFR category at some point overnight into the early morning
hours as additional lift moves into the region. Have not taken
conditions quite that low at this time. Planners should monitor
TAFs closely if conditions actually do go into the lowest
category. However, if this is the case, would only expect it to be
for a short periods of time. Also, the biggest hazard to aviation
will likely exist at the KMHK site with the possibility of -FZRA
near the 12z time frame.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Monday for KSZ009>011-
021>023-034>037.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for KSZ008-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

Main attention was to the system moving through tonight. An upper level
trof will swing out from the central Rockies and out across the Central
Plains. The 400-hPa pv anomaly will move basically right over the forecast
area with resultant QG forcing increasing. A band is indicated by the
ARW to develop across west-central Kansas. The HRRR and 4 km nam show
more activity across south-central Kansas. Precip type looks to be
mainly snow across west-central Kansas and mixed precip type across
south-central Kansas. Did expand the advisory south as some ice accumulation
is possible with the largest amounts across Pratt, Barber, and Stafford
counties. The "heavy" snow fall axis looks to extend from Syracuse to
Hays... up to 3".

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

The system will eject by 18Z tomorrow with pops rapidly decreasing as
isentropic downglide develops in the wake of the synoptic trof. The
rest of the forecast is primarily dry. The superblend does crank out
some slight pops next weekend. Left the superblend solution alone since
attention was geared to the short term domain. The overall extended
does feature moderating temperatures and lack of any significant trofs
until next weekend, potentially.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

Widespread LIFR/IFR flight category will continue through the
overnight hours as the last wave of winter precipitation moves
across the region. Low level downslope flow from the northwest in
the wake of this wave will erode the low ceiling by mid to late
morning Monday from west to east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  28  36  20  42 /  60  60   0   0
GCK  26  34  17  40 /  70  70   0   0
EHA  26  38  19  44 /  50  30   0   0
LBL  26  37  20  44 /  40  30   0   0
HYS  28  33  20  37 /  80  80   0   0
P28  31  37  23  44 /  80  30   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 741 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE VA BORDER COUNTIES...BUT PRECIPITATION
LINGERS IN ITS VICINITY. ON ADDITIONAL SFC WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY AND THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST CWA. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY. BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS OPTED TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CWA DURING THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AS WELL AS SKY COVER. RECENT HRRR AND OTHER MODEL RUNS WERE
A TAD HIGHER WITH QPF ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL...SO QPF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST WAS INCREASE A TENTH OR SO. OTHERWISE...HOURLY
TRENDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS...BUT THIS
LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SETTLING OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING THE CWA BOTH ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES VARY WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION AS COOLER
AIR IS POURING IN ON WEST WINDS FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
WHILE WARMTH REMAINS IN THE FAR EAST. SPECIFICALLY...TEMPERATURES
VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS LIKEWISE VARY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE DRY BULB VALUES. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHILE THEY ARE
MORE WESTERLY TO THE WEST RUNNING AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 15 OR 20 MPH.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL TAKE A FAIRLY DEEP...AND COMPACT...LOW THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THIS LOWS ENERGY DOES TARGET THE LOWER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
AS IT MOVES BY LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE FAR
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA ALONG THAT STALLED FRONT. TO THE WEST
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE FOUND. THE DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ENDING ANY ACCUMULATING RAINS...THOUGH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN INTO THE MORNING. HOWEVER...TO THE EAST THE SHOWERS WILL
LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES TO AT
LEAST NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE AIR WILL DRY OUT THROUGHOUT
THE STATE BY DAWN THURSDAY. COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A BIGGER SURGE THAT NIGHT FOR LOWS
BACK TO NEAR FREEZING BY DAWN THURSDAY.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. FROM THIS
MADE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO MOS BLEND FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE ON THE HIGH
SIDE BY A TAD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD AND REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH PW`S AROUND 0.15
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
EACH DAY WITH COLD MORNINGS AND MILD AFTERNOONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE EACH DAY AND POSSIBLY UNDER GUIDANCE
AT NIGHT.  NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME SOMETIME AROUND NEXT
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE PATTERN GOING INTO TUESDAY...NOT
WILLING TO BITE ON THIS SYSTEM YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION...MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ALONG WITH SOME FOG...DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS
FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 12 TO 15 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. CIGS WILL BE
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS IN SOME CASES FOR LOCATIONS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. THE CIGS AND VIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
VFR BETWEEN 13Z TO 20Z AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO
THE STATE. HOWEVER...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...
STRATOCU SHOULD APPROACH OR MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH SOME LOCATIONS RETURNING TO MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE WEST SOUTHWEST TO WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
AVERAGE 10KT OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1257 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME DRIZZLE...PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED FOR THE TIME
BEING. HAVE UPDATED TO FURTHER DOWNPLAY PRECIP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO START
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BEHIND WHAT WAS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA TODAY...AND HAVE SHAVED THE MAX TEMP
FORECAST BACK SLIGHTLY IN THAT AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH ONGOING PRECIP WHICH
WILL BE MOVING OUT TO THE ENE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

RAIN IS COMING TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
SO HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THOUGH...STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED DRIZZLE. ALSO DID A QUICK REFRESH
OF THE TEMPS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS MAIN AREA OF RAIN PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE REGION
WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN FILLING BACK IN TO THE WEST. THIS RESURGENCE
IS LIKELY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING TOWARD KY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL ALSO SHOWED
SOME LIGHT RAIN FILLING BACK IN AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
15Z. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.

6Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ALONG
THE KY/TN BORDER. BUT AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER WYOMING...SLOWLY MOVES EAST...A SFC LOW WILL FORM AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP PULL THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH INTO OUR AREA...BUT HOW FAR NORTH
IS THE QUESTION. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...RAIN AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR
AREA TUESDAY STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT STEADY
THIS MORNING BUT THEN SHOULD WARM THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

THE EXTENDED BEGINS VERY AMPLIFIED...WITH A DEEP SYSTEM SPIRALING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. STEADY SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MINOR PROBLEMS ALONG
CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A FEW RIVER POINTS
WITHIN THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN MAY BE SEEING SOME SIGNIFICANT
RISES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WITHIN THE HWO.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE MUDDLED CONCERNING THE
UPPER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR A CUTOFF
LOW TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...WHILE ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THE UPPER LOW CLOSE BY MAY ADD A FEW MORE CLOUDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL AT
THE SURFACE...DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE OUT TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

VERY FEW PLACES SHOULD SEE ANYTHING BETTER THAN IFR AT LEAST UNTIL
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL GIVE WAY TO RAIN THIS
EVENING. AFTER ABOUT 07Z TONIGHT AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS
FORECAST...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1047 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME DRIZZLE...PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED FOR THE TIME
BEING. HAVE UPDATED TO FURTHER DOWNPLAY PRECIP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO START
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BEHIND WHAT WAS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA TODAY...AND HAVE SHAVED THE MAX TEMP
FORECAST BACK SLIGHTLY IN THAT AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH ONGOING PRECIP WHICH
WILL BE MOVING OUT TO THE ENE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

RAIN IS COMING TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
SO HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THOUGH...STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED DRIZZLE. ALSO DID A QUICK REFRESH
OF THE TEMPS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS MAIN AREA OF RAIN PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE REGION
WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN FILLING BACK IN TO THE WEST. THIS RESURGENCE
IS LIKELY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING TOWARD KY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL ALSO SHOWED
SOME LIGHT RAIN FILLING BACK IN AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
15Z. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.

6Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ALONG
THE KY/TN BORDER. BUT AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER WYOMING...SLOWLY MOVES EAST...A SFC LOW WILL FORM AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP PULL THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH INTO OUR AREA...BUT HOW FAR NORTH
IS THE QUESTION. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...RAIN AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR
AREA TUESDAY STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT STEADY
THIS MORNING BUT THEN SHOULD WARM THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

THE EXTENDED BEGINS VERY AMPLIFIED...WITH A DEEP SYSTEM SPIRALING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. STEADY SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MINOR PROBLEMS ALONG
CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A FEW RIVER POINTS
WITHIN THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN MAY BE SEEING SOME SIGNIFICANT
RISES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WITHIN THE HWO.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE MUDDLED CONCERNING THE
UPPER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR A CUTOFF
LOW TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...WHILE ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THE UPPER LOW CLOSE BY MAY ADD A FEW MORE CLOUDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL AT
THE SURFACE...DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE OUT TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL START TO MAKE ITS TREK BACK NORTH LATER TODAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. BEFORE THEN...WE SHOULD
SEE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SO
HAVE TRENDED VISIBILITIES UP WHILE KEEPING CIGS NEAR ALTERNATE
MINS. RAIN SHOULD THEN RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTH...ALLOWING CIGS AND VIS TO ONCE AGAIN TREND DOWN TOWARDS
LIFR CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT. RIGHT ON ITS HEELS...THE SFC LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND BRING
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO THE REGION. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO CARRY
LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 750 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH ONGOING PRECIP WHICH
WILL BE MOVING OUT TO THE ENE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

RAIN IS COMING TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
SO HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THOUGH...STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED DRIZZLE. ALSO DID A QUICK REFRESH
OF THE TEMPS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS MAIN AREA OF RAIN PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE REGION
WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN FILLING BACK IN TO THE WEST. THIS RESURGENCE
IS LIKELY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING TOWARD KY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL ALSO SHOWED
SOME LIGHT RAIN FILLING BACK IN AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
15Z. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.

6Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ALONG
THE KY/TN BORDER. BUT AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER WYOMING...SLOWLY MOVES EAST...A SFC LOW WILL FORM AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP PULL THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH INTO OUR AREA...BUT HOW FAR NORTH
IS THE QUESTION. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...RAIN AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR
AREA TUESDAY STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT STEADY
THIS MORNING BUT THEN SHOULD WARM THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

THE EXTENDED BEGINS VERY AMPLIFIED...WITH A DEEP SYSTEM SPIRALING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. STEADY SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MINOR PROBLEMS ALONG
CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A FEW RIVER POINTS
WITHIN THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN MAY BE SEEING SOME SIGNIFICANT
RISES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WITHIN THE HWO.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE MUDDLED CONCERNING THE
UPPER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR A CUTOFF
LOW TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...WHILE ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THE UPPER LOW CLOSE BY MAY ADD A FEW MORE CLOUDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL AT
THE SURFACE...DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE OUT TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL START TO MAKE ITS TREK BACK NORTH LATER TODAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. BEFORE THEN...WE SHOULD
SEE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SO
HAVE TRENDED VISIBILITIES UP WHILE KEEPING CIGS NEAR ALTERNATE
MINS. RAIN SHOULD THEN RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTH...ALLOWING CIGS AND VIS TO ONCE AGAIN TREND DOWN TOWARDS
LIFR CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT. RIGHT ON ITS HEELS...THE SFC LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND BRING
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO THE REGION. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO CARRY
LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 652 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

RAIN IS COMING TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
SO HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THOUGH...STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED DRIZZLE. ALSO DID A QUICK REFRESH
OF THE TEMPS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS MAIN AREA OF RAIN PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE REGION
WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN FILLING BACK IN TO THE WEST. THIS RESURGENCE
IS LIKELY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING TOWARD KY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL ALSO SHOWED
SOME LIGHT RAIN FILLING BACK IN AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
15Z. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.

6Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ALONG
THE KY/TN BORDER. BUT AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER WYOMING...SLOWLY MOVES EAST...A SFC LOW WILL FORM AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP PULL THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH INTO OUR AREA...BUT HOW FAR NORTH
IS THE QUESTION. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...RAIN AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR
AREA TUESDAY STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT STEADY
THIS MORNING BUT THEN SHOULD WARM THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

THE EXTENDED BEGINS VERY AMPLIFIED...WITH A DEEP SYSTEM SPIRALING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. STEADY SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MINOR PROBLEMS ALONG
CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A FEW RIVER POINTS
WITHIN THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN MAY BE SEEING SOME SIGNIFICANT
RISES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WITHIN THE HWO.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE MUDDLED CONCERNING THE
UPPER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR A CUTOFF
LOW TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...WHILE ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THE UPPER LOW CLOSE BY MAY ADD A FEW MORE CLOUDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL AT
THE SURFACE...DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE OUT TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL START TO MAKE ITS TREK BACK NORTH LATER TODAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. BEFORE THEN...WE SHOULD
SEE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SO
HAVE TRENDED VISIBILITIES UP WHILE KEEPING CIGS NEAR ALTERNATE
MINS. RAIN SHOULD THEN RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTH...ALLOWING CIGS AND VIS TO ONCE AGAIN TREND DOWN TOWARDS
LIFR CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT. RIGHT ON ITS HEELS...THE SFC LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND BRING
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO THE REGION. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO CARRY
LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 405 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS MAIN AREA OF RAIN PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE REGION
WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN FILLING BACK IN TO THE WEST. THIS RESURGENCE
IS LIKELY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING TOWARD KY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL ALSO SHOWED
SOME LIGHT RAIN FILLING BACK IN AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
15Z. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.

6Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ALONG
THE KY/TN BORDER. BUT AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER WYOMING...SLOWLY MOVES EAST...A SFC LOW WILL FORM AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP PULL THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH INTO OUR AREA...BUT HOW FAR NORTH
IS THE QUESTION. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...RAIN AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR
AREA TUESDAY STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT STEADY
THIS MORNING BUT THEN SHOULD WARM THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

THE EXTENDED BEGINS VERY AMPLIFIED...WITH A DEEP SYSTEM SPIRALING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. STEADY SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MINOR PROBLEMS ALONG
CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A FEW RIVER POINTS
WITHIN THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN MAY BE SEEING SOME SIGNIFICANT
RISES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WITHIN THE HWO.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE MUDDLED CONCERNING THE
UPPER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR A CUTOFF
LOW TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...WHILE ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THE UPPER LOW CLOSE BY MAY ADD A FEW MORE CLOUDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL AT
THE SURFACE...DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE OUT TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER THROUGH
MUST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL REMAIN LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MANY OF THE TAF SITES EXPERIENCING LONG
DURATIONS OF BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS. AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
STARTS TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY...RAIN SHOULD COME TO
END...OR AT LEAST REDUCE TO LIGHT DRIZZLE OVER THE NEXT THREE TO
SIX HOURS. THOUGH...WITH THE STALLED FRONT...THERE IS ALWAYS A
POSSIBILITY THAT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE WON/T BE MUCH BREAK IN THE RAIN BEFORE THE
FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SO FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT IFR CIGS OR BELOW THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM/JMW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 330 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS MAIN AREA OF RAIN PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE REGION
WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN FILLING BACK IN TO THE WEST. THIS RESURGENCE
IS LIKELY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING TOWARD KY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL ALSO SHOWED
SOME LIGHT RAIN FILLING BACK IN AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
15Z. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.

6Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ALONG
THE KY/TN BORDER. BUT AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER WYOMING...SLOWLY MOVES EAST...A SFC LOW WILL FORM AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP PULL THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH INTO OUR AREA...BUT HOW FAR NORTH
IS THE QUESTION. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...RAIN AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR
AREA TUESDAY STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT STEADY
THIS MORNING BUT THEN SHOULD WARM THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

A LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER THROUGH
MUST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL REMAIN LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MANY OF THE TAF SITES EXPERIENCING LONG
DURATIONS OF BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS. AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
STARTS TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY...RAIN SHOULD COME TO
END...OR AT LEAST REDUCE TO LIGHT DRIZZLE OVER THE NEXT THREE TO
SIX HOURS. THOUGH...WITH THE STALLED FRONT...THERE IS ALWAYS A
POSSIBILITY THAT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE WON/T BE MUCH BREAK IN THE RAIN BEFORE THE
FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SO FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT IFR CIGS OR BELOW THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM/JMW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

National Weather Service Paducah KY

 1132 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1132 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

Light rains are spreading back northeast across much of the area.
Considering regional radar trends and water vapor imagery, it will
likely be well into the evening hours before it comes to an end
from west to east. The latest HRRR suggests a rapid drying trend
from west to east from 00Z-03Z. As winds drop off into the
overnight hours, drizzle and fog are likely to develop, so added
in areas of drizzle to most of the region.

A weak warm front will try to move through the region Monday, but
it will not be significant enough to even generate a few breaks
in the low overcast. The warm frontal passage is associated with a
rather intense storm system lifting northeast through the
northern Plains/upper Midwest.

The 12Z models continue to be all over the place with QPF Monday
and Monday night. Odds are that the moisture we have been fighting
all weekend will be lifted back across west Kentucky, at the
least, Monday afternoon and night. The models hint at shower
development over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois mainly
on the trailing cold front Monday night, so will keep at least a
chance PoP throughout the region, but likely to categorical PoPs
will been posted in the southeast.

Some rain may linger in the far east/southeast into Tuesday morning,
but it still appears that we will finally dry out Tuesday afternoon
and Tuesday night.

Will stay close to consensus for highs and lows through the
period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

High confidence in the extended.

Models are in good agreement with high pressure setting up over the
heartland and dominating the weather pattern. So high and dry will
be the ruling weather factor for the extended. We will start out
slightly below normal for temperatures but as the axis of the surface
high drifts east a southerly flow will resume and bring us slightly
above normal temperatures for the rest of the weekend. The next
chance of rain will arrive day eight or nine as a an upper low
impacts the area early next week. Even then the low will originate
out of the southwest with no significant cold air foreseen in its
wake.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1132 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

With a quasi-stationary system hung up across the region coupled
with deep moisture, LIFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will continue at all
sites through the period. Periods of rain and/or drizzle are
possible through 00Z. Through 00Z, winds will generally continue
out of the north northeast AOB 10 knots, then swing around to the
east southeast to southeast AOB 5 knots.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...JP



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 422 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...WHILE A SECOND LOW WAS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONNECTED THE TWO LOWS AND EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA. ALSO...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT
NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PULLING THE FRONT BACK ACROSS
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND
COOLER CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE WEAK LO WAS OVR ERN KY WHILE A SECOND WEAK
LO WAS OFF THE NC CST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONNECTED THESE TWO LOWS
AND EXTENDED DOWN ACRS SC. MEANWHILE...HI PRES WAS CNTRD JUST OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND CST. LATEST RDR SHOWED SCTD AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE OVR THE CWA. THIS COOL AIR WEDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WX
TNGT INTO EARLY TUE MORNG...WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND OFF AND ON
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM NEAR 40 WNW...TO THE
LWR 50S NEAR/ALONG THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING TUE...WEAK LO PRES JUST OFF THE SE VA CST...WILL LIFT NNE
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ CSTS...PULLING THE FRNTL BNDRY
BACK ACRS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND INTO THE MTNS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN SHIFTING INTO THE NRN HALF OF
THE REGION. WINDS TURNING TO THE W THEN SW WILL HELP MAX TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S (EXCEPT LWR 50S EXTRM NW).

TUE NGT INTO WED NGT...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FM THE W TUE
NGT INTO WED MORNG...THEN CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFF THE CST WED
AFTN/WED NGT. SSW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 OVR MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED
BEFORE SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT FM
TNGT INTO WED EVENG...WILL RANGE FM ARND .25 INCH OVR NE NC...TO
1.0-1.5 INCHES OVR NRN AND WRN COUNTIES. THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHR/OUT TO SEA WED EVENG/NGT...WITH NW WINDS USHERING
DRIER/COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WED NGT
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD IN FM
THE W ON THU...PROVIDING A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND MAX TEMPS IN
THE LWR TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PROGRESSION FROM DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOWARD THE SPLIT FLOW
REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. CLOSED UPPER LOW
WL PUSH EAST FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA, WITH
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ATTM THAT SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SE COAST...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SURFACE FEATURES LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WOULD KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO DRY WX
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OUT WEST IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND,
PUSHING EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME INCREASING CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SLOWLY TREND UPWARD...FROM NEAR NORMAL
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO AROUND 1 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD AS OF 18Z...EXCEPT AT KSBY
WHERE CIGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
RAIN/DRIZZLE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
THESE WINDS MAY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTN AT
KSBY/KORF.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ONSHORE NE WINDS AT THE SFC AND A MOIST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...A COLD AIR WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DETERIORATION OF
AVIATION CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT SWEEPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WEDNESDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF DRY AND VFR WEATHER TAKES
OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN, WITH WINDS
STEADILY DROPPING OFF AS GRADIENT SLACKENS BETWEEN COOL AIR WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE SE COAST.
CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME AREAS OF FOG CREATING DIMINISHED VISIBILITY IN
THE LOWER JAMES/CHES BAY. HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE VSBY WILL
GRADUALLY RECOVER FROM N TO S...AND SOME IMPROVEMENT IS BEING SEEN
ON TRAFFIC CAMS. THEREFORE WILL HOLD OFF WITH A HEADLINE FOR DENSE
FOG. INSTEAD, WL LOOK AT ANOTHER MARINE WX STATEMENT FOR LOCAL VSBY
BELOW 1 SM THRU EARLY EVENING. SCA OVER THE BAY WILL BE DROPPED WITH
THE AFTN PACKAGE FOR THE CHES BAY (EXCEPT MOUTH OF THE BAY ZONE).
SCA FLAGS CONTINUE, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS, FOR ALL ATLC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUE...AND THRU TUE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN WATERS. NWPS
AND WAVEWATCH HANDLE WAVE HGTS SIMILARLY OVERNIGHT IN THE 5-7 FT
RANGE ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES...2-3 FT IN THE CHES BAY (3-4 IN THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY). SEAS SUBSIDE A BIT TOMORROW...4-6 FT...BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW SCA THERESHOLDS GRADUALLY TOMORROW EVENING/WED
MORNING. THIS, TOO IS HANDLED SIMILARLY BY 12Z/30TH NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH...AND A BLENDED SOLUTION HAS BEEN USED FOR SEAS IN THE
NEAR/SHORT TERM.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN INITIALLY TONIGHT, AND WILL
BACK TO THE WNW OVER THE BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS LOW PRES
TAKES SHAPE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. FARTHER NORTH, WINDS
WL REMAIN E-NE TONIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING W-SW BY MIDDAY TUES/TUE AFTN
AS THE LOW SLIDES NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE AGAIN (STILL SUB-SCA) TOMORROW NIGHT AS GRADIENT AGAIN
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WTRS LATE WED AFTN THRU WED EVENG. SSW WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE NW WED NIGHT...WITH COLDER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AND THU NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES AND DECENT COLD
SURGE LOOKS TO BRING STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ERY THU MORN THROUGH
MIDDAY THU. POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A PERIOD OF MARGINAL GALES ACRS
THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...AND WL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR GALE
HEADLINES FOR THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS DIMINISH BACK BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
REMAINS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE ERY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1217 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER WYOMING WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE WRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THE NRN LAKES. INCREASING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS
GRADUALLY HELPING TO PUSH THE AREA OF CLOUDS TO THE EAST. AN AREA OF
MIXED PCPN FROM SE MN INTO SRN WI WAS SUPPORTED BY 295-300K
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH INCREASING SRLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.

TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EAST ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. WEAK WAA WILL HELP BOOST
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ANY PCPN APPROACHING THE WI
BORDER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TIL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS TO
THE NNE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW. THE HIGHER POPS SHOULD ARRIVE MAINLY AFT 06Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS LOW.

THE PCPN TYPE WILL ALSO BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE WARM LAYER AS THE PCPN
DEVELOPS THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...SUGGEST THAT THE ELEVATED
WARM LAYER MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SLEET OR RA/FZRA. SFC
TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
CLIMB AOA 0C OVERNIGHT WITH SOME COLDER POCKETS REMAINING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY FZRA THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED AND
BRIEF. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT/DURATION OF MIXED PCPN IS ALSO
LOW...THE FCST CONTINUES TO MENTION MAINLY SNOW OVER THE WEST HALF
AND RAIN OVER THE EAST. WITH SLR VALUES ONLY AROUND 8/1...QPF AMOUNTS
OF 0.10-0.25 INCH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BY
12Z/TUE...GREATEST OVER THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

WHILE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY...SPECIFICALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG THE WI BORDER. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE SUPPRESSION OF THE SFC RIDGE AS A LOW CROSSES MANITOBA AND
MOVES TO S HUDSON BAY SATURDAY...AND DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR REGION BEFORE THE LOW EXITS TO N QUEBEC SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW
A SURGE OF WARMER AIR /850MB TEMPS OF 5 TO 7C/ SHOULD HELP SFC
TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE IN THE MORE NEAR TERM...THE 500MB LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING
OVER WY AND CO WILL DEEPEN ACROSS S MN AND N IA TUESDAY MORNING...AS
THE SFC LOW OVER S MN LOOKS TO HEAD OUR WAY. AS FOR TIMING OF THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION...IT SHOULD BE OVER
THE S TIER COUNTIES 12-18Z TUESDAY...AND THE N TIER 15-21Z
TUESDAY...WITH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA GETTING MOST OF THE PRECIP
BETWEEN 15-00Z. SNOW LOOKS TO BE THE WX TYPE OVER THE SW THIRD OF
THE CWA...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE IN A RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW SITUATION. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT FASTER...WITH OVER 0.3IN
OF LIQUID FALLING JUST PRIOR TO 12Z AT IWD. MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS
HAVE LESS THAN 0.1IN. WILL NEED TO REVISIT THE LATEST TRENDS TO SEE
IF HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A WET AND SLUSHY COMMUTE FOR
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MIXED PRECIP AS
WELL AS SNOW ACCUMULATING OVER THE SW IN THE HWO...AND HIGHLIGHT THE
PERIOD EVEN MORE WITH AN SPS.

THE 500MB LOW WILL SLIDE E ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND INTO LAKE MI
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH HANGING BEHIND OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. IF THERE WAS
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR IN PLACE...WE WOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT
UPSLOPE SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE FAR W...BUT WITH 10:1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS AND THE COLDEST AIR RIGHT UNDER THE 500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL TO
S UPPER MI BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AROUND -7C. BY THE TIME MORE
FAVORABLE N FLOW SETS UP OVER THE W WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND -3 TO -4C. AS A
RESULT...ONLY ANOTHER HALF AN INCH TO 2IN ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY /HIGHEST AMOUNTS STILL NEAR IWD/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER THIS EVENING...LOWERING CLOUDS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE WILL IMPACT IWD AND SAW BUT NOT CMX UNTIL AFTER
01/06Z. SOME -SN WL ARRIVE AT IWD IN THE EVNG BUT LIKELY NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VSBY UNTIL AFTER 06Z WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT CMX/SAW ALONG WITH AN
INFLUX OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE TUE MORNING WILL BE IFR/LIFR IN
THE PCPN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO WINDS BELOW 20KTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK AT AROUND 30KTS. THE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS TURNING TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW FOR WEDNESDAY (20-30KTS). FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...EXPECT QUICK ARRIVING/DEPARTING RIDGES AND
TROUGHS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SW WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 659 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER WYOMING WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE WRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THE NRN LAKES. INCREASING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS
GRADUALLY HELPING TO PUSH THE AREA OF CLOUDS TO THE EAST. AN AREA OF
MIXED PCPN FROM SE MN INTO SRN WI WAS SUPPORTED BY 295-300K
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH INCREASING SRLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.

TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EAST ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. WEAK WAA WILL HELP BOOST
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ANY PCPN APPROACHING THE WI
BORDER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TIL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS TO
THE NNE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW. THE HIGHER POPS SHOULD ARRIVE MAINLY AFT 06Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS LOW.

THE PCPN TYPE WILL ALSO BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE WARM LAYER AS THE PCPN
DEVELOPS THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...SUGGEST THAT THE ELEVATED
WARM LAYER MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SLEET OR RA/FZRA. SFC
TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
CLIMB AOA 0C OVERNIGHT WITH SOME COLDER POCKETS REMAINING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY FZRA THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED AND
BRIEF. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT/DURATION OF MIXED PCPN IS ALSO
LOW...THE FCST CONTINUES TO MENTION MAINLY SNOW OVER THE WEST HALF
AND RAIN OVER THE EAST. WITH SLR VALUES ONLY AROUND 8/1...QPF AMOUNTS
OF 0.10-0.25 INCH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BY
12Z/TUE...GREATEST OVER THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

WHILE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY...SPECIFICALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG THE WI BORDER. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE SUPPRESSION OF THE SFC RIDGE AS A LOW CROSSES MANITOBA AND
MOVES TO S HUDSON BAY SATURDAY...AND DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR REGION BEFORE THE LOW EXITS TO N QUEBEC SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW
A SURGE OF WARMER AIR /850MB TEMPS OF 5 TO 7C/ SHOULD HELP SFC
TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE IN THE MORE NEAR TERM...THE 500MB LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING
OVER WY AND CO WILL DEEPEN ACROSS S MN AND N IA TUESDAY MORNING...AS
THE SFC LOW OVER S MN LOOKS TO HEAD OUR WAY. AS FOR TIMING OF THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION...IT SHOULD BE OVER
THE S TIER COUNTIES 12-18Z TUESDAY...AND THE N TIER 15-21Z
TUESDAY...WITH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA GETTING MOST OF THE PRECIP
BETWEEN 15-00Z. SNOW LOOKS TO BE THE WX TYPE OVER THE SW THIRD OF
THE CWA...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE IN A RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW SITUATION. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT FASTER...WITH OVER 0.3IN
OF LIQUID FALLING JUST PRIOR TO 12Z AT IWD. MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS
HAVE LESS THAN 0.1IN. WILL NEED TO REVISIT THE LATEST TRENDS TO SEE
IF HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A WET AND SLUSHY COMMUTE FOR
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MIXED PRECIP AS
WELL AS SNOW ACCUMULATING OVER THE SW IN THE HWO...AND HIGHLIGHT THE
PERIOD EVEN MORE WITH AN SPS.

THE 500MB LOW WILL SLIDE E ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND INTO LAKE MI
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH HANGING BEHIND OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. IF THERE WAS
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR IN PLACE...WE WOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT
UPSLOPE SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE FAR W...BUT WITH 10:1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS AND THE COLDEST AIR RIGHT UNDER THE 500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL TO
S UPPER MI BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AROUND -7C. BY THE TIME MORE
FAVORABLE N FLOW SETS UP OVER THE W WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND -3 TO -4C. AS A
RESULT...ONLY ANOTHER HALF AN INCH TO 2IN ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY /HIGHEST AMOUNTS STILL NEAR IWD/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY. AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER THIS EVENING...LOWERING CLOUDS INTO
THE MVFR RANGE WILL IMPACT IWD AND SAW BUT NOT CMX UNTIL AFTER
01/06Z. SOME -SN WL ARRIVE AT IWD IN THE EVNG BUT LIKELY NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VSBY UNTIL AFTER 06Z WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT CMX/SAW ALONG WITH AN
INFLUX OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO WINDS BELOW 20KTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK AT AROUND 30KTS. THE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS TURNING TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW FOR WEDNESDAY (20-30KTS). FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...EXPECT QUICK ARRIVING/DEPARTING RIDGES AND
TROUGHS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SW WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 521 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER WYOMING WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE WRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THE NRN LAKES. INCREASING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS
GRADUALLY HELPING TO PUSH THE AREA OF CLOUDS TO THE EAST. AN AREA OF
MIXED PCPN FROM SE MN INTO SRN WI WAS SUPPORTED BY 295-300K
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH INCREASING SRLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.

TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EAST ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. WEAK WAA WILL HELP BOOST
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ANY PCPN APPROACHING THE WI
BORDER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TIL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS TO
THE NNE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW. THE HIGHER POPS SHOULD ARRIVE MAINLY AFT 06Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS LOW.

THE PCPN TYPE WILL ALSO BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE WARM LAYER AS THE PCPN
DEVELOPS THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...SUGGEST THAT THE ELEVATED
WARM LAYER MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SLEET OR RA/FZRA. SFC
TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
CLIMB AOA 0C OVERNIGHT WITH SOME COLDER POCKETS REMAINING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY FZRA THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED AND
BRIEF. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT/DURATION OF MIXED PCPN IS ALSO
LOW...THE FCST CONTINUES TO MENTION MAINLY SNOW OVER THE WEST HALF
AND RAIN OVER THE EAST. WITH SLR VALUES ONLY AROUND 8/1...QPF AMOUNTS
OF 0.10-0.25 INCH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BY
12Z/TUE...GREATEST OVER THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

WHILE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY...SPECIFICALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG THE WI BORDER. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE SUPPRESSION OF THE SFC RIDGE AS A LOW CROSSES MANITOBA AND
MOVES TO S HUDSON BAY SATURDAY...AND DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR REGION BEFORE THE LOW EXITS TO N QUEBEC SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW
A SURGE OF WARMER AIR /850MB TEMPS OF 5 TO 7C/ SHOULD HELP SFC
TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE IN THE MORE NEAR TERM...THE 500MB LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING
OVER WY AND CO WILL DEEPEN ACROSS S MN AND N IA TUESDAY MORNING...AS
THE SFC LOW OVER S MN LOOKS TO HEAD OUR WAY. AS FOR TIMING OF THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION...IT SHOULD BE OVER
THE S TIER COUNTIES 12-18Z TUESDAY...AND THE N TIER 15-21Z
TUESDAY...WITH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA GETTING MOST OF THE PRECIP
BETWEEN 15-00Z. SNOW LOOKS TO BE THE WX TYPE OVER THE SW THIRD OF
THE CWA...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE IN A RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW SITUATION. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT FASTER...WITH OVER 0.3IN
OF LIQUID FALLING JUST PRIOR TO 12Z AT IWD. MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS
HAVE LESS THAN 0.1IN. WILL NEED TO REVISIT THE LATEST TRENDS TO SEE
IF HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A WET AND SLUSHY COMMUTE FOR
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MIXED PRECIP AS
WELL AS SNOW ACCUMULATING OVER THE SW IN THE HWO...AND HIGHLIGHT THE
PERIOD EVEN MORE WITH AN SPS.

THE 500MB LOW WILL SLIDE E ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND INTO LAKE MI
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH HANGING BEHIND OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. IF THERE WAS
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR IN PLACE...WE WOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT
UPSLOPE SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE FAR W...BUT WITH 10:1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS AND THE COLDEST AIR RIGHT UNDER THE 500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL TO
S UPPER MI BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AROUND -7C. BY THE TIME MORE
FAVORABLE N FLOW SETS UP OVER THE W WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND -3 TO -4C. AS A
RESULT...ONLY ANOTHER HALF AN INCH TO 2IN ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY /HIGHEST AMOUNTS STILL NEAR IWD/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

ALTHOUGH LO CLDS HAVE CLEARED AT SAW...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MORE
OF THESE CLDS STILL OVER SCENTRAL UPR MI COULD IMPACT THAT SITE
EARLY THIS MRNG. BUT DOWNSLOPE SW FLOW SUGGESTS THESE CLDS SHOULD
NOT MOVE OVER SAW...SO WENT WITH VFR FCST. ALTHOUGH SOME MID CLDS WL
OVERSRPEAD IWD EARLY THIS MRNG...EXPECT VFR WX TO LINGER THERE AND
AT CMX AS WELL. THE MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE U.P. ON MON.
AS A LO PRES MOVES CLOSER ON MON EVNG...LOWERING CLDS INTO THE MVFR
RANGE WL IMPACT IWD AND SAW BUT NOT CMX UNTIL AFTER 01/06Z. SOME -SN
WL ARRIVE AT IWD IN THE EVNG BUT LIKELY NOT SGNFTLY REDUCE VSBY
UNTIL AFTER 06Z WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO WINDS BELOW 20KTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK AT AROUND 30KTS. THE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS TURNING TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW FOR WEDNESDAY (20-30KTS). FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...EXPECT QUICK ARRIVING/DEPARTING RIDGES AND
TROUGHS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SW WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 1153 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015


.AVIATION...

TWO AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS WILL ATTEMPT TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT WITHIN
GENERALLY DRY LOW LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACING RIDGING OVER THE
AREA. ONE...WITH CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET WILL BRUSH FNT AND AFFECT
MAINLY MBS OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER RIBBON OF CIGS CLOSER TO 1500 FEET
FUNNELING OFF OF LAKE ERIE. WILL INCREASE MENTION OF BKN CIGS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN TRENDS...BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT AREA TO BECOME
ENSHROUDED IN STRATUS. LOWER CIGS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND AN AREA OF -SHRAS PIVOTS INTO AREA...GENERALLY AFTER 06Z.

FOR DTW...WHILE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BKN MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST THE 04Z-06Z TIME FRAME MONDAY EVENING.
CIGS/-SHRA COVERAGE WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE 24-30 HOUR PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BELOW 5000FT LATE
  TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

A ZONE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND ONTARIO SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY BALANCED TODAY DUE TO BLOCKED FLOW
AND NO IDENTIFIABLE SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES. AS A RESULT...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IN
A THERMALLY RECEPTIVE AND HOSPITABLE ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS NOT A
HUGE DIFFERENCE WITH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -10C OVER GEORGIAN
BAY TO 1C OVER THE DTX CWA. THE LAKE ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN REASONABLY
ACTIVE GAUGING FROM BOTH THE BEHAVIOR OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS OUT
OVER THE LAKE AS WELL AS THE EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS THAT PERSISTS
ALONG AND ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. THERE HAS BEEN NO LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION CAUGHT IN SURFACE OBSERVING PLATFORMS...BUT DEPTH OF
EXPECTED DEPTH OF INSTABILITY LAYER SUGGESTS SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT...RAIN HYDROMETEORS WITH LIKELY ICE NUCLEATION ISSUES.

MOVING FORWARD...MODELS BASICALLY PIVOT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THERMAL TROUGH OVER LAKE HURON WASHING OUT THE ALREADY WEAK BOUNDARY
OUT EVEN FURTHER. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MAKE
IT INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST WITH TIME TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTER
BUILDING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF QUEBEC. THE REAL
FORECAST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS TRENDS AND DEVELOPING
EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES WORK TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SWING THE FORECAST IN COMPLETELY WITH THE
NAM IS IT REMAINS ITS BULLISH SELF. WITH THAT SAID THE RUC IS ON
BOARD WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALL OF THE THUMB AND EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. LAKE HURON
STRATOCUMULUS OVER PORTIONS OF ONTARIO HAS MIXED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SUSPECT LOW LEVEL CLOUD TO BEGIN TO FILL IN/SATURATE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD TOP/MOISTURE BLACK BODY RADIATIVE
COOLING. INCREASED SKY COVER MARKEDLY FOR TONIGHT AND RAISED LOWS
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MARINE AREAS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

UPPER LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SPINNING NEAR THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT CONSOLIDATES TOMORROW AND BECOMES POSITIONED UNDER
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING FROM A JET
STREAK ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEEPENING UPPER/SURFACE
LOW WILL THEN LIFT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A SURGE OF WARMER
AIR AND MOISTURE UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF RAIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

INITIAL ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS WEAK AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LACKING BELOW
10000 FEET MUCH OF THE DAY PER LATEST GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY MODELS BEGIN TO CREEP SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY...ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY GENERATE A FEW
SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER. STRONGER THETA-E SURGE LOOKS TO
OCCUR PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONGER SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. PW VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM
FRONT/OCCLUSION AND LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING TO GENERATE A BAND OF
RAINFALL THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE ON TUESDAY AS A
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS UP THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN A LITTLE INCONSISTENT
WITHIN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW RUNS...RANGING FROM EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS ADDS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY SURROUNDING MAX TEMPS AND HOW
LONG INTO THE DAY DRIZZLE WILL LAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OR LEVEL
OFF MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S UNTIL
THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS ON TUESDAY. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME ADDED ENHANCEMENT FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS DO NOT
LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT A
MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COLD AIR /AROUND -30C AT 500 MB
AND -6C AT 850 MB/ WILL TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT WITH LOW IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME DUE TO FAIRLY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE BUT WITH THE
POLAR JET DISPLACED MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE
RESULT LOCALLY IS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PERSISTENT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS FROM OUTER SAGINAW BAY TO PORT HURON
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE
WEST ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WILL ALSO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 550 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PERSISTENT
BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE CHANGING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY EWD ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A BROADENING SFC LOW EXPANDS EAST INTO
WISCONSIN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS AN AREA OF WEAK MID-
LEVEL F-GEN ACROSS NE MN AIDING IN THE 700-500MB LIFT WHICH HAS
BEEN THE PRIMARY AREA OF FORCING THAT HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE HAS THIS LIFTING
LAYER HANGING AROUND THE ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD
TONIGHT AS THE BAND PIVOTS AND ROTATES EWD. MAY SEE THE SRN EDGE
OF THIS BAND BRUSH THE TWIN PORTS THIS EVENING...AND TRIGGER A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO...WILL
KEEP SRN ST. LOUIS AND CARLTON COUNTY...INCLUDING DULUTH...IN THE
ADVISORY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. A LAYER OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH AND ALLOW
THE COLUMN TO LOSE ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT...BUT KEEP THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS SETUP WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NEAR-SFC TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. ROADS AND OTHER SURFACES WILL LIKELY BE WET OR SNOW
COVERED...WHICH WILL INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SO DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NW WI AND AREAS OF E-CENTRAL MN.

THE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT DZ/FZDZ WILL SWEEP EWD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WED MORNING AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW AND DRIZZLE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND OVER N-CENTRAL WI WED
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER IRON COUNTY IN WISCONSIN AS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SET
IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AND BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
WESTERN MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND THUS CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY THAT
MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FOR THE
SEASON...AVERAGING SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

PERIODS OF LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KDLH...KHIB AND
KBRD AS A BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS AT KINL AS WELL...THOUGH KHYR HAS BROKEN
OUT INTO VFR. THE BAND OF SNOW TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SWEEP EAST IN
THE NEXT 18 HOURS...SO EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OR WORSE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...WITH VER SLOW
IMPROVEMENT AFTER THAT. KHYR TO DETERIORATE AGAIN AS THE SNOW
MOVES BACK IN BY 04Z THEN REMAIN IFR OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING
AFTER 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  35  20  36 /  60  20   0   0
INL  23  30  19  36 /  40   0   0   0
BRD  29  35  16  37 /  70   0   0   0
HYR  25  35  18  35 /  20  20  10   0
ASX  28  37  22  38 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-
     018>021-025-026-035-037.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...LE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

 334 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

The upper level system that has been entrenched over the central
Rockies the past few days will finally be on the move today bringing
one more day of unsettled weather. The good news is the
precipitation will be in liquid form.

The upper level trough with a closed low currently centered over
Wyoming will push into Nebraska today. This will allow for surface
cyclogenesis to occur with a surface low developing over eastern
Kansas this morning. This surface low will lift north thru the day
along the Missouri River into eastern Nebraska/western Iowa by this
evening. This will force a cold front through the area and allow
rain to overspread the area yet again today. Temperatures this
morning are ranging from just above freezing near the MO/IA border
and are otherwise in the mid to upper 30s. As the surface low
develops across eastern Kansas and lifts northward, warm air will be
drawn northward as winds pick up out of the south to southwest this
afternoon. That will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 30s to
mid 40s and keep precipitation in the form of rain. By early tonight
the front will have exited the eastern CWA however with a lack of
cold air behind the front temperatures will only dip into the upper
20s to lower 30s tonight. There may be enough moisture present
tonight behind the front to see rain briefly change over to snow
across northwestern Missouri. However, model soundings suggest that
there may not be ice crystals in the snow growth zone when
temperatures drop below freezing.

The upper level low and surface low become nearly stacked across
southern Minnesota tonight. This stacked system will then slowly
push east into the Great Lake Region Tuesday through Tuesday night.
This will allow for increased cloud cover across the northern CWA.
Also, a few vort maxes will move through the area on the back side
of the low. This may be enough to allow for a few snow showers
across the northern CWA Tuesday into Tuesday night however, no
accumulations are expected. Highs Tuesday will remain cool in the
mid 30s to mid 40s.

The remainder of the forecast period looks dry with a warming trend
through the period. Wednesday will remain cool under strong
northwesterly flow aloft with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Thursday, surface high pressure will build into the region as
northwesterly flow aloft relaxes over the region. Highs Thursday
with rise to near normal into the 40s. Upper level ridging will
build into the region for Friday and Saturday which will be the
warmest days of the forecast period with highs in the mid 40s to mid
50s. Models are consistent at this time in depicting an upper low
digging into the southern Plains on Sunday. Clouds will be in the
increase ahead of this system during the day keeping highs a degree
or two cooler with the next chance of precipitation Sunday night.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1052 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

Scattered rain showers and periods of drizzle will continue over the
next several hours before a swath of rain moves in. HRRR hi-res model
brings this swath in between 10-11Z. Light rain will continue into
the late morning hours before ending. Cloud decks are expected to
remain IFR or lower and vsby may bounce between categories.
Conditions will begin to improve by late tomorrow afternoon and
evening as precip moves out of the region.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...PMM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

 1100 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

Have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for Atchison county MO. No
longer expect any freezing rain. Combo of weak warm air advection and
veering of boundary layer winds to the east should ensure a steady-
state airmass resulting in overnight temperatures flatlining over the
entire CWA. Temperatures in the northwest tip of MO should be no
worse than 33F.

Have also made adjustments to PoPs based on radar trends. One area of
rain is departing to the northeast and weakening in intensity while
the second round is rapidly increasing in coverage from northwest OK
through central KS. This latter area will continue to blossom as it
lifts northeast and takes aim on the northwest and west central MO,
probably reaching these areas a few hours before sunrise.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

A different day but the same old story. The persistent Rex block
over the Intermountain West has been feeding Pacific moisture into
the region with surface temperatures only a few degrees warmer than
they were yesterday. Fortunately this has kept precipitation in the
form of rain. The main question then is how will temperatures evolve
this evening/overnight and what the resultant weather will be. The
preponderance of short-range models, as well as medium range models,
keep the forecast area at or above freezing tonight. After some
coordination with WPC, factoring in a degree or two warm bias in the
model surface temperatures and blending with a cooler LAV guidance,
temperatures still remain at or above freezing. So for now, the
threat of accumulating ice over northwestern Missouri and extreme
northeastern Kansas looks fairly low through the overnight. That
said, there is enough uncertainty and with temperatures so close, a
half degree or so error could mean accumulating ice or just rain.
Given that, have added some freezing rain mention in far
northwestern Missouri and minimal amount of ice accumulation, about
a hundredth of an inch, to better depict this uncertainty and to
blend national guidance and surrounding offices.

The other aspect of this system is the snowfall. Forecast soundings
in far northwestern Missouri show a very stout warm nose aloft. This
has been persistent and appears to be well sampled comparing
forecast sounding analysis to area 12Z RAOBS. With temperatures at
the surface already borderline for freezing precipitation, and such
a pronounced warm nose aloft, the threat of accumulating snow looks
very low for extreme northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern
Kansas. There will be a tight gradient but for now that gradient
doesn`t look to be over the forecast area. We also don`t look to
cool off aloft until after the system passes by and we`re in the
backside of the wave and subsident area of the storm. While there
could be a few snow showers and/or flurries, the chance for
accumulating snow should have passed us by.

So overall, the next 12 to 24 hours look to be mainly wet for the
forecast area. There is a small area in northwestern Missouri and
extreme northeastern Kansas, where temperatures are close to
critical values, that may see light amounts of freezing rain
tonight.

Once this system moves away from the area Monday night into Tuesday,
the rest of the forecast looks quiet with a general warming trend.
Broad high pressure builds into the middle part of the country
through mid week and by the later half of the week should be
centered to our southeast. This will allow for southerly flow.
Aloft, an upper ridge with increasing thicknesses will build into the
center of the country. This combination will allow for temperatures
to climb back into the to start the weekend off. By late Saturday
and into Sunday, models move another upper low into the middle of
the country, spreading precipitation chances through the Plains and
Lower Missouri valley.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1052 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

Scattered rain showers and periods of drizzle will continue over the
next several hours before a swath of rain moves in. HRRR hi-res model
brings this swath in between 10-11Z. Light rain will continue into
the late morning hours before ending. Cloud decks are expected to
remain IFR or lower and vsby may bounce between categories.
Conditions will begin to improve by late tomorrow afternoon and
evening as precip moves out of the region.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...PMM



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 922 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

H5 UA ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER
FAR SERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE HAS MIGRATED FROM SERN WYOMING
TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS OF MIDDAY...WV
IMAGERY HAS THIS FEATURE ROUGHLY OVER NWRN IA. HT FALLS DOWNSTREAM
OF THIS FEATURE WERE MOST PRONOUNCED AT THE TWIN CITIES AND THE QUAD
CITIES WITH HT FALLS OF 220 AND 190 METERS RESPECTIVELY...SO THIS
FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS A BROAD SHIELD OF
ALTO STRATUS AND OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD ENHANCEMENT NOTED FROM ROUGHLY VALENTINE TO NEAR
BROKEN BOW. UNDERNEATH THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR FROM
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WAS OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT GIVEN THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS AREA TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST...UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES...RANGED FROM 27 AT AINSWORTH AND VALENTINE...TO 33 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

RADAR COVERAGE HAS DECREASED SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO BE CANCELLED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

ANOTHER SNOW BAND HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN SD. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. CHERRY COUNTY IS IN THE CLEAR AND HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FROM THE ADVISORY.

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST A FEW HOURS ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE
END TIMING OF THE SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO TEMPERATURES...MORE SPECIFICALLY HOW
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH A DENSE FRESH SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON...DRAGGING ONE LAST SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE HELPED TO FOCUS A
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS...FROM
VALENTINE SOUTH TOWARD NORTH PLATTE.  THE NAM MODEL...AND THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR DID A FINE JOB DEPICTING THIS ENHANCED SNOWBAND
BOTH IN TERMS OF INTENSITY AND LOCATION...THUS THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION.  BOTH THE NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOW
THE BAND ERODING IN A COUPLE HOURS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL WEAKER BAND
BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTH INTO CUSTER
COUNTY LATE AFTERNOON. REAL TIME OBSERVING STATIONS AND THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE WEAKENING TREND...YIELDING GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE SHORT TERM.

THE CURRENT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING...THOUGH
WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  WE WOULD
RATHER SEE HOW THE ADDITIONAL BAND PLAYS OUT BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL
CALL ON WHETHER TO CUT THE ADVISORY EARLY.  WHERE THE PRESENT HEAVY
BAND SET UP...WE COULD STILL SEE SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER
TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS AN HALF INCH PER HOUR...BUT AGAIN THAT BAND
IS SLOWLY FALLING APART.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE GOING TO BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND HOW LONG THE NORTHWEST WINDS STAY UP.  AT
THIS POINT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CLEARING A FEW HOURS BEFORE
DAWN...AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK...LOW TO MID TEENS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.  NOTE GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE
FORECASTING.  RISING HEIGHTS WILL ACCOMPANY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SNOWPACK.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MID 30S
OVER THE SNOW AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE TEMPERATURES AND THE THREAT FOR
FOG...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...EVEN
WITH EXPECTED MELTING ON WEDNESDAY...MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SHOULD REMAIN SNOW COVERED. WITH EXPECTED
SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FELT GUIDANCE
WAS WAY OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY THE MAV...AND UNDERCUT BOTH THE MAV
AND MET TEMPS FOR LOWS WEDS NIGHT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE LIGHT
WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS...WENT WITH LOWS EVEN COLDER IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME SINGLE DIGITS WERE INSERTED IN THE GRIDS.
FOR THURSDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT
MIXING. WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE LOWER 40S. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED TO MELT
OFF WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...I DID GO AHEAD AND
LIMIT LOWS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE WESTERN CWA. FURTHER EAST...THE MODELS BEGIN TO INCREASE A
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH TWO
DAYS OF MELTING SNOW...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY MOIST AND
WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE THREAT FOR FOG FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM
AND SREF ARE INDICATIVE OF A FOG THREAT FRIDAY AM...WHILE THE GFS IS
NOT. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FOG MENTION FOR NOW AS THIS IS WELL
INTO THE MID RANGE PERIOD AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE GFS/ECMWF COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SREF/NAM CAMP. ALSO...THERE IS SOME
DOUBT AS TO WINDS FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE NAM HAS SOME DECENT H925
WINDS IN AREAS WHERE THE BL IS NEARLY SATURATED. IF THE WINDS COME
TO FRUITION...THE FOG THREAT MAY BE DIMINISHED. STILL TOO MANY
DOUBTS YET TO INTRODUCE IT IN THE FORECAST.

BEYOND FRIDAY...A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AS ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS ABSENT FROM THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SATURDAY
AS A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL DROP HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SECONDARY DRY TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

MVFR CIGS AND SNOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND EXIT
THE FCST AREA BY 16Z ACCORDING TO THE RAP MODEL. VFR IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER ACROSS ALL OF WRN AND NCNTL NEB.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 553 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

H5 UA ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER
FAR SERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE HAS MIGRATED FROM SERN WYOMING
TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS OF MIDDAY...WV
IMAGERY HAS THIS FEATURE ROUGHLY OVER NWRN IA. HT FALLS DOWNSTREAM
OF THIS FEATURE WERE MOST PRONOUNCED AT THE TWIN CITIES AND THE QUAD
CITIES WITH HT FALLS OF 220 AND 190 METERS RESPECTIVELY...SO THIS
FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS A BROAD SHIELD OF
ALTO STRATUS AND OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD ENHANCEMENT NOTED FROM ROUGHLY VALENTINE TO NEAR
BROKEN BOW. UNDERNEATH THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR FROM
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WAS OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT GIVEN THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS AREA TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST...UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES...RANGED FROM 27 AT AINSWORTH AND VALENTINE...TO 33 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

ANOTHER SNOW BAND HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN SD. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. CHERRY COUNTY IS IN THE CLEAR AND HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FROM THE ADVISORY.

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST A FEW HOURS ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE
END TIMING OF THE SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO TEMPERATURES...MORE SPECIFICALLY HOW
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH A DENSE FRESH SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON...DRAGGING ONE LAST SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE HELPED TO FOCUS A
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS...FROM
VALENTINE SOUTH TOWARD NORTH PLATTE.  THE NAM MODEL...AND THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR DID A FINE JOB DEPICTING THIS ENHANCED SNOWBAND
BOTH IN TERMS OF INTENSITY AND LOCATION...THUS THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION.  BOTH THE NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOW
THE BAND ERODING IN A COUPLE HOURS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL WEAKER BAND
BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTH INTO CUSTER
COUNTY LATE AFTERNOON. REAL TIME OBSERVING STATIONS AND THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE WEAKENING TREND...YIELDING GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE SHORT TERM.

THE CURRENT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING...THOUGH
WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  WE WOULD
RATHER SEE HOW THE ADDITIONAL BAND PLAYS OUT BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL
CALL ON WHETHER TO CUT THE ADVISORY EARLY.  WHERE THE PRESENT HEAVY
BAND SET UP...WE COULD STILL SEE SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER
TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS AN HALF INCH PER HOUR...BUT AGAIN THAT BAND
IS SLOWLY FALLING APART.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE GOING TO BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND HOW LONG THE NORTHWEST WINDS STAY UP.  AT
THIS POINT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CLEARING A FEW HOURS BEFORE
DAWN...AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK...LOW TO MID TEENS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.  NOTE GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE
FORECASTING.  RISING HEIGHTS WILL ACCOMPANY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SNOWPACK.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MID 30S
OVER THE SNOW AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE TEMPERATURES AND THE THREAT FOR
FOG...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...EVEN
WITH EXPECTED MELTING ON WEDNESDAY...MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SHOULD REMAIN SNOW COVERED. WITH EXPECTED
SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FELT GUIDANCE
WAS WAY OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY THE MAV...AND UNDERCUT BOTH THE MAV
AND MET TEMPS FOR LOWS WEDS NIGHT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE LIGHT
WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS...WENT WITH LOWS EVEN COLDER IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME SINGLE DIGITS WERE INSERTED IN THE GRIDS.
FOR THURSDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT
MIXING. WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE LOWER 40S. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED TO MELT
OFF WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...I DID GO AHEAD AND
LIMIT LOWS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE WESTERN CWA. FURTHER EAST...THE MODELS BEGIN TO INCREASE A
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH TWO
DAYS OF MELTING SNOW...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY MOIST AND
WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE THREAT FOR FOG FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM
AND SREF ARE INDICATIVE OF A FOG THREAT FRIDAY AM...WHILE THE GFS IS
NOT. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FOG MENTION FOR NOW AS THIS IS WELL
INTO THE MID RANGE PERIOD AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE GFS/ECMWF COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SREF/NAM CAMP. ALSO...THERE IS SOME
DOUBT AS TO WINDS FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE NAM HAS SOME DECENT H925
WINDS IN AREAS WHERE THE BL IS NEARLY SATURATED. IF THE WINDS COME
TO FRUITION...THE FOG THREAT MAY BE DIMINISHED. STILL TOO MANY
DOUBTS YET TO INTRODUCE IT IN THE FORECAST.

BEYOND FRIDAY...A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AS ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS ABSENT FROM THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SATURDAY
AS A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL DROP HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SECONDARY DRY TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

MVFR CIGS AND SNOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND EXIT
THE FCST AREA BY 16Z ACCORDING TO THE RAP MODEL. VFR IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER ACROSS ALL OF WRN AND NCNTL NEB.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ006>010-026>029-038.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 524 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

H5 UA ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER
FAR SERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE HAS MIGRATED FROM SERN WYOMING
TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS OF MIDDAY...WV
IMAGERY HAS THIS FEATURE ROUGHLY OVER NWRN IA. HT FALLS DOWNSTREAM
OF THIS FEATURE WERE MOST PRONOUNCED AT THE TWIN CITIES AND THE QUAD
CITIES WITH HT FALLS OF 220 AND 190 METERS RESPECTIVELY...SO THIS
FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS A BROAD SHIELD OF
ALTO STRATUS AND OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD ENHANCEMENT NOTED FROM ROUGHLY VALENTINE TO NEAR
BROKEN BOW. UNDERNEATH THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR FROM
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WAS OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT GIVEN THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS AREA TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST...UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES...RANGED FROM 27 AT AINSWORTH AND VALENTINE...TO 33 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE
END TIMING OF THE SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO TEMPERATURES...MORE SPECIFICALLY HOW
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH A DENSE FRESH SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON...DRAGGING ONE LAST SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE HELPED TO FOCUS A
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS...FROM
VALENTINE SOUTH TOWARD NORTH PLATTE.  THE NAM MODEL...AND THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR DID A FINE JOB DEPICTING THIS ENHANCED SNOWBAND
BOTH IN TERMS OF INTENSITY AND LOCATION...THUS THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION.  BOTH THE NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOW
THE BAND ERODING IN A COUPLE HOURS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL WEAKER BAND
BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTH INTO CUSTER
COUNTY LATE AFTERNOON. REAL TIME OBSERVING STATIONS AND THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE WEAKENING TREND...YIELDING GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE SHORT TERM.

THE CURRENT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING...THOUGH
WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  WE WOULD
RATHER SEE HOW THE ADDITIONAL BAND PLAYS OUT BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL
CALL ON WHETHER TO CUT THE ADVISORY EARLY.  WHERE THE PRESENT HEAVY
BAND SET UP...WE COULD STILL SEE SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER
TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS AN HALF INCH PER HOUR...BUT AGAIN THAT BAND
IS SLOWLY FALLING APART.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE GOING TO BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND HOW LONG THE NORTHWEST WINDS STAY UP.  AT
THIS POINT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CLEARING A FEW HOURS BEFORE
DAWN...AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK...LOW TO MID TEENS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.  NOTE GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE
FORECASTING.  RISING HEIGHTS WILL ACCOMPANY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SNOWPACK.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MID 30S
OVER THE SNOW AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE TEMPERATURES AND THE THREAT FOR
FOG...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...EVEN
WITH EXPECTED MELTING ON WEDNESDAY...MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SHOULD REMAIN SNOW COVERED. WITH EXPECTED
SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FELT GUIDANCE
WAS WAY OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY THE MAV...AND UNDERCUT BOTH THE MAV
AND MET TEMPS FOR LOWS WEDS NIGHT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE LIGHT
WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS...WENT WITH LOWS EVEN COLDER IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME SINGLE DIGITS WERE INSERTED IN THE GRIDS.
FOR THURSDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT
MIXING. WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE LOWER 40S. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED TO MELT
OFF WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...I DID GO AHEAD AND
LIMIT LOWS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE WESTERN CWA. FURTHER EAST...THE MODELS BEGIN TO INCREASE A
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH TWO
DAYS OF MELTING SNOW...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY MOIST AND
WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE THREAT FOR FOG FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM
AND SREF ARE INDICATIVE OF A FOG THREAT FRIDAY AM...WHILE THE GFS IS
NOT. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FOG MENTION FOR NOW AS THIS IS WELL
INTO THE MID RANGE PERIOD AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE GFS/ECMWF COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SREF/NAM CAMP. ALSO...THERE IS SOME
DOUBT AS TO WINDS FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE NAM HAS SOME DECENT H925
WINDS IN AREAS WHERE THE BL IS NEARLY SATURATED. IF THE WINDS COME
TO FRUITION...THE FOG THREAT MAY BE DIMINISHED. STILL TOO MANY
DOUBTS YET TO INTRODUCE IT IN THE FORECAST.

BEYOND FRIDAY...A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AS ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS ABSENT FROM THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SATURDAY
AS A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL DROP HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SECONDARY DRY TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

MVFR CIGS AND SNOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND EXIT
THE FCST AREA BY 16Z ACCORDING TO THE RAP MODEL. VFR IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER ACROSS ALL OF WRN AND NCNTL NEB.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ005>010-026>029-038-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 345 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES IN OUR NRN COUNTIES WILL BE THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM.

500 MB CHART FROM 12Z SHOWED MAIN LOW BACK OVER WY WITH HEIGHT FALLS
ESTIMATED AT UP TO 130 METERS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS CENTERED OVER
THE SERN CO/SWRN KS BORDER AREA. IT WAS JUST A BIT LESS AT KDDC
(120 METERS). VORT MAX WAS OVER NERN CO AT THAT TIME...BUT WATER
VAPOR STLT IMAGERY AND RECENT RUC MODEL INITILIZATIONS SHOW MAIN
LOW NOW IN WRN NE. STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE
LOW. MAIN BAND OF PCPN MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING ABOUT AS
EXPECTED...AND THE PCPN TYPE WAS A MIX. NEXT LOBE OF ENERGY HAD
ROTATED INTO ERN NE FROM THE WEST AND THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WRAP
UP TOWARD SERN SD.

WE HAD SEEN SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES NORTH OF KOFK AS EARLY
AFTN. SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS PSBL...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM NELIGH TO FREMONT AND RED OAK.

WILL TRIM HEADLINES TO THE S...BUT KEEP HEADLINES GOING N WHERE PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. NEW AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NOT
OVERLY HIGH IN OUR NORTH...BUT A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. CLOSED
LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EWD/NEWD...REACHING SWRN MN BY 12 TUE AND
THEN SHOULD BE OVER WI BY 12Z WED. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW EVEN INTO
TUE NIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THAT CLOSED LOW TRACKS
NEWD AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY 40S
SOUTH AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH. PCPN CHANCES STILL SEEM TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER NM BY
SAT...THEN THAT MOVES OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUN/MON. GENLY
FAVORED THE ECMWF MORE THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

TAFS CONTINUE TO BE COMPLEX WITH SNOW MOVING OVER THE SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TEND TO RANGE
FROM IFR TO MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW AT MOST SITES. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO HANG TIGHT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PASS OVER THE AREA KEEPING AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG AROUND.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-
     015-034.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ016>018-030>033-042>045-052.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 1133 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. DID JUST
SEND AN UPDATE TO HEADLINES TO TURN THE WARNING OVER TO AN
ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
COUNTIES WHERE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST. CURRENT RADAR
LOOP SHOWS HEAVIEST PCPN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH PCPN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST OF THIS MAIN AREA. DUE TO CONTINUED FALLING LIGHT PCPN
IN MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP AN ADVISORY GOING. TRICKY PART
COMES INTO PLAY WITH SFC TEMPERATURES WHICH CONTINUE TO HOVER
AROUND 32 AND HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO
THE MID 30S. IN ANY CASE...SLUSHY SNOW IS PROBABLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND FREEZING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF PRECIP MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. 06Z RAP MAINTAINS THIS
BAND OF PRECIP AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXED
PRECIP FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE IA NE BORDER THIS MORNING.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND FREEZING TODAY
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING OMAHA WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND STRENGTH OF JET MAX
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. MAIN BAND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE AREA AS
LOW LEVELS COOL. LIGHT SNOW LINGERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA AS UPPER SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY
EAST.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL QPF HAVE ADJUSTED
HEADLINES FOR TODAY BY PLACING WESTERN COUNTIES IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
SNOWFALL TOTALS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN EXPECTED
EARLIER.

LACK OF ANY COLD AIR OUTSIDE THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY BUT MAY SEE A SMALL CHANCE
BY SUNDAY DEPENDING ON TRACK OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

TAFS CONTINUE TO BE COMPLEX WITH SNOW MOVING OVER THE SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TEND TO RANGE
FROM IFR TO MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW AT MOST SITES. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO HANG TIGHT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PASS OVER THE AREA KEEPING AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG AROUND.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-
     015-034.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ016>018-030>033-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KERN
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 551 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND FREEZING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF PRECIP MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. 06Z RAP MAINTAINS THIS
BAND OF PRECIP AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXED
PRECIP FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE IA NE BORDER THIS MORNING.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND FREEZING TODAY
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING OMAHA WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND STRENGTH OF JET MAX
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. MAIN BAND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE AREA AS
LOW LEVELS COOL. LIGHT SNOW LINGERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA AS UPPER SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY
EAST.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL QPF HAVE ADJUSTED
HEADLINES FOR TODAY BY PLACING WESTERN COUNTIES IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
SNOWFALL TOTALS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN EXPECTED
EARLIER.

LACK OF ANY COLD AIR OUTSIDE THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY BUT MAY SEE A SMALL CHANCE
BY SUNDAY DEPENDING ON TRACK OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

MESSY DAY AT ALL SITES...WITH IFR OR WORSE CEILINGS AND ALL FORMS
OF WINTER PRECIPITATION.

AT KOFK...RISK IS MAINLY FOR SNOW...WHICH MAY LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. INTENSITY SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AT 10-15KT. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

AT KOMA...PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE A COMBINATION
OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. BY MID-
MORNING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE SNOW/SLEET...BECOMING ALL
SNOW BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE
BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SNOW LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AND
POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15KT
THIS EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR TONIGHT.

AT KLNK...PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY BE MORE SNOW/SLEET...WITH A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN THIS MORNING. SNOW SHOULD LAST
THROUGH AROUND LATE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY
AT 10-15KT THIS EVENING. CEILINGS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME VFR BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-
     015-034.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045-052-
     053-066>068-078-088>090-092.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-091-093.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ069-079.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ080-
     090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MAYES




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 315 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND FREEZING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF PRECIP MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. 06Z RAP MAINTAINS THIS
BAND OF PRECIP AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXED
PRECIP FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE IA NE BORDER THIS MORNING.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND FREEZING TODAY
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING OMAHA WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND STRENGTH OF JET MAX
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. MAIN BAND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE AREA AS
LOW LEVELS COOL. LIGHT SNOW LINGERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA AS UPPER SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY
EAST.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL QPF HAVE ADJUSTED
HEADLINES FOR TODAY BY PLACING WESTERN COUNTIES IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
SNOWFALL TOTALS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN EXPECTED
EARLIER.

LACK OF ANY COLD AIR OUTSIDE THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY BUT MAY SEE A SMALL CHANCE
BY SUNDAY DEPENDING ON TRACK OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FL010 THROUGH 00Z AT ALL SITES
WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SLEET IS LIKELY AT KLNK AND KOMA TAF SITES
THROUGH 12Z...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. VSBYS THERE COULD DROP TO A HALF MILE IN SNOW THROUGH 18Z
BEFORE SNOW BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH. KOFK WILL SEE SNOW MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH PERIODS OF LIFR OR VLIFR CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY A FEW HOURS EACH SIDE OF 18Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-
     015-034.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045-052-
     053-066>068-078-088>090-092.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-091-093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ043-044-050-051.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ069-079.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ080-
     090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 1129 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO FORECAST AT THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
INCREASING RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED IN KANSAS AS ADVERTISED BY
HRRR/RAP MODELS. THIS AREA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
EVENTUALLY EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. A HODGEPODGE
OF WEATHER TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE 00Z KOAX SOUNDING SHOWED A NICE
WARM NOSE OVER COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AT FREEZING. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM TO NEUTRAL ADVECTION SHOULD
MAINTAIN SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ON THE WARM SIDE OF FREEZING
IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT FROM OMAHA TO LINCOLN AND
BEATRICE...THINGS COULD BE A BIT DIFFERENT. AS PRECIP MOVES INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...COLD AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE FORCED DOWNWARD
MAY TIP THE SCALES TO MORE FREEZING RAIN. ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OKAY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT GRAVEL ROADS...SIDEWALKS...AND
ELEVATED SURFACES MAY SEE A GLAZE OF ICE BY THE MORNING DRIVE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS CORRIDOR SUGGEST A TREND TOWARD
ISOTHERMAL TEMPERATURES NEAR 0C BELOW 750MB...KEEPING RAIN/SNOW A
QUESTION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING. BEST BET IS GRADUAL
COOLING OF THE LAYER WILL SWITCH PRECIP TO SNOW MORE
QUICKLY...PERHAPS 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME IN THE OMAHA METRO...AND A
LITTLE SOONER TO THE WEST AND LATER TO THE EAST. IF THE SWITCH
DOES OCCUR IN THIS WINDOW...A LITTLE MORE SNOW AND A LITTLE LESS
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED. TRENDS ARE STILL FOR MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION TO LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AND A RECALCULATION OF ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE LATEST
THINKING STILL POINTS TO EARLIER FORECAST AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 7 OR
SO ALONG SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TAPERING TO AN INCH OR TWO IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND UP TO TWO-TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

MESSY...MESSY FCST THE NEXT 36 HRS AND BECAUSE OF THAT DISCUSSION
WILL BE ON THE SHORT SIDE FOR LENGTH. MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE PCPN
TYPE...WHICH LEADS TO PROBLEMS WITH ICE AND SNOW AMOUNTS. WARNING
IS BASED ON WHAT POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE...AND WAS STARTED
SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THAN WE EXPECT THINGS TO DETERIORATE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTN SHOWED THE MAIN CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION IN THE MID LEVELS OVER UT...WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CENTER
IN WY. VERY UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL NOTED AT 300 MB FROM NM INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AT 300 MB THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE NOTED AT 850 MB MOVING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST...WITH 8
DEGREE C 850 MB DEWPOINTS IN NRN OK AND SWRN MO AT 12Z.

AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT INTO WY AND CO BY 12Z MONDAY...LIFT
WILL INCREASE WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND
SOME OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF PCPN OVER OUR
AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING RUSH HOUR
FOR THE LNK...OMA AND CBF AREAS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR MIXED PCPN WHICH WILL INCLUDE MUCH OF ERN NE AND INTO
WRN IA. FAR SERN NE AND PARTS OF SWRN IA WILL JUST BE IN AN
ADVISORY...SINCE SFC TEMPS THERE LIKELY TO BE CLOSER TO OR
POSSIBLY ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN TYPE DEFINITELY AN ISSUE OVER THE
FCST AREA...WITH SNOW IN OUR NW ZONES AND RAIN SE ZONES. THE AREAS
IN BETWEEN WILL SEE A MIX.

ON MONDAY...HEAVIEST PCPN WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD ACROSS IA BUT
ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPS ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN NE TOWARD ERN SD. THAT
SHOWS UP FAIRLY WELL IN THE 12Z GFS PARAMETERS WITH UPWARDS OF
0.25 QPF AND THAT WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. SNOW LINGERS THERE PAST
6 PM THERE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN OUR SRN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT
SNOW COULD LINGER INTO TUE AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE MID LEVEL
LOW WHICH SHOULD REACH CNTRL WI BY 00Z WED.

MOISTURE WILL NOT BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MIXING RATIOS/
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES AVERAGING 3-4 G/KG ACROSS NERN NE AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THAT FARTHER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS. USED A
BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS. SOME PCPN PSBL BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FL010 THROUGH 00Z AT ALL SITES
WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SLEET IS LIKELY AT KLNK AND KOMA TAF SITES
THROUGH 12Z...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. VSBYS THERE COULD DROP TO A HALF MILE IN SNOW THROUGH 18Z
BEFORE SNOW BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH. KOFK WILL SEE SNOW MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH PERIODS OF LIFR OR VLIFR CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY A FEW HOURS EACH SIDE OF 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>090-092.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ091-093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ043>045-
     050>053.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ079-080-090-
     091.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ069.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 1029 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO FORECAST AT THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
INCREASING RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED IN KANSAS AS ADVERTISED BY
HRRR/RAP MODELS. THIS AREA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
EVENTUALLY EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. A HODGEPODGE
OF WEATHER TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE 00Z KOAX SOUNDING SHOWED A NICE
WARM NOSE OVER COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AT FREEZING. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM TO NEUTRAL ADVECTION SHOULD
MAINTAIN SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ON THE WARM SIDE OF FREEZING
IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT FROM OMAHA TO LINCOLN AND
BEATRICE...THINGS COULD BE A BIT DIFFERENT. AS PRECIP MOVES INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...COLD AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE FORCED DOWNWARD
MAY TIP THE SCALES TO MORE FREEZING RAIN. ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OKAY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT GRAVEL ROADS...SIDEWALKS...AND
ELEVATED SURFACES MAY SEE A GLAZE OF ICE BY THE MORNING DRIVE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS CORRIDOR SUGGEST A TREND TOWARD
ISOTHERMAL TEMPERATURES NEAR 0C BELOW 750MB...KEEPING RAIN/SNOW A
QUESTION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING. BEST BET IS GRADUAL
COOLING OF THE LAYER WILL SWITCH PRECIP TO SNOW MORE
QUICKLY...PERHAPS 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME IN THE OMAHA METRO...AND A
LITTLE SOONER TO THE WEST AND LATER TO THE EAST. IF THE SWITCH
DOES OCCUR IN THIS WINDOW...A LITTLE MORE SNOW AND A LITTLE LESS
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED. TRENDS ARE STILL FOR MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION TO LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AND A RECALCULATION OF ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE LATEST
THINKING STILL POINTS TO EARLIER FORECAST AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 7 OR
SO ALONG SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TAPERING TO AN INCH OR TWO IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND UP TO TWO-TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

MESSY...MESSY FCST THE NEXT 36 HRS AND BECAUSE OF THAT DISCUSSION
WILL BE ON THE SHORT SIDE FOR LENGTH. MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE PCPN
TYPE...WHICH LEADS TO PROBLEMS WITH ICE AND SNOW AMOUNTS. WARNING
IS BASED ON WHAT POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE...AND WAS STARTED
SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THAN WE EXPECT THINGS TO DETERIORATE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTN SHOWED THE MAIN CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION IN THE MID LEVELS OVER UT...WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CENTER
IN WY. VERY UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL NOTED AT 300 MB FROM NM INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AT 300 MB THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE NOTED AT 850 MB MOVING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST...WITH 8
DEGREE C 850 MB DEWPOINTS IN NRN OK AND SWRN MO AT 12Z.

AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT INTO WY AND CO BY 12Z MONDAY...LIFT
WILL INCREASE WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND
SOME OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF PCPN OVER OUR
AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING RUSH HOUR
FOR THE LNK...OMA AND CBF AREAS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR MIXED PCPN WHICH WILL INCLUDE MUCH OF ERN NE AND INTO
WRN IA. FAR SERN NE AND PARTS OF SWRN IA WILL JUST BE IN AN
ADVISORY...SINCE SFC TEMPS THERE LIKELY TO BE CLOSER TO OR
POSSIBLY ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN TYPE DEFINITELY AN ISSUE OVER THE
FCST AREA...WITH SNOW IN OUR NW ZONES AND RAIN SE ZONES. THE AREAS
IN BETWEEN WILL SEE A MIX.

ON MONDAY...HEAVIEST PCPN WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD ACROSS IA BUT
ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPS ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN NE TOWARD ERN SD. THAT
SHOWS UP FAIRLY WELL IN THE 12Z GFS PARAMETERS WITH UPWARDS OF
0.25 QPF AND THAT WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. SNOW LINGERS THERE PAST
6 PM THERE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN OUR SRN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT
SNOW COULD LINGER INTO TUE AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE MID LEVEL
LOW WHICH SHOULD REACH CNTRL WI BY 00Z WED.

MOISTURE WILL NOT BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MIXING RATIOS/
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES AVERAGING 3-4 G/KG ACROSS NERN NE AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THAT FARTHER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS. USED A
BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS. SOME PCPN PSBL BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GET WORSE AS
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY CONTINUE TO LOWER. LOOK FOR IFR AND LIFR
AT ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS
STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF FORECASTER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL START OUT WITH MAINLY
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING AND FROZEN MIXED IN
AFTER 09Z. KOFK HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND
STAY THERE. KOMA AND KLNK WILL HAVE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT MAY GO TO ALL LIQUID
AGAIN FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 13Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>090-092.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ091-093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ043>045-
     050>053.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ079-080-090-
     091.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ069.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 304 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY
RAIN WITH THIS EVENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1206 PM EST MONDAY...THE ONGOING BATTLE WITH LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUES FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED
TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN VT INTO
THE NORTHERN DACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS PER
PROGGED 1000 TO 850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS OFF THE RAP SHOULD
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY EVENING. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW THIS IN THE
GRIDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST CLOUD COVER BASED
ON VIS SATL PICS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION
WITH COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARMER WATERS. ALSO...VIS SATL PICS
SHOW PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
GRIDS IN THESE AREAS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AFTER A CHILLY START WILL WARM INTO
THE 20S AND 30S FOR HIGHS. DID NOTE SOME SINGLE DIGIT OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM LAST NIGHT WITH NULHEGAN 6F AND
GALLUP MILLS DOWN TO 7F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 315 AM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE FORECAST TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
EVENING WITH SURFACE LEVEL WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY BY MORNING AS A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PULLS OFF SHORE. THAT WILL SLOWLY WARM TEMPS UP
TODAY HOWEVER BOTH THE 925MB AND 850MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM STAY
WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE -2C TO -4C TEMPS AT 925MB WILL
MEAN THAT THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S TODAY FOR MAX TEMPS. TONIGHT WE WILL BENEFIT FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DRIVING IN SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO THE LOW 20S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT
FOR THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHICH WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
ALL IN ALL SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO END
NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 AM EST MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON HOLDING OFF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT...SO
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS TO
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG A OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE LONG
TERM WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND MOISTURE PROGS.
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY WHERE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE PARENT CLOSED
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ON THE BTV CWA DOORSTEP SHIFTING
EASTWARD. AMPLE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW
INTERACTING WITH LIFT/ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT. AS WE SHIFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THE BEST LIFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WITH A BRIEF SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN, DRYING OUT CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED, BUT LIKELY MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THAN ON THURSDAY
WITH WEAKER OVERALL UPPER DYNAMICS. ON SATURDAY A LARGE SCALE UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATE THE
NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WITH SUNNY/CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, AND LOWS IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR AT KSLK FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WE`RE STILL DEALING
WITH SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THOUGH MAJORITY
OF IT IS ABOVE 3500 FEET. LATEST TRENDS OF HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT A
PERSISTENCE OF CURRENT CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 21-00Z WHERE
THEREAFTER MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WINS OVER TRENDING SKIES TO SKC FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. AFTER 11-13Z TUESDAY THOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM BUT REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS TODAY LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 00Z FRI...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN TUE/WED TRANSITIONS TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDS NIGHT THROUGH THU BEFORE ENDING.

00Z FRI - 12Z FRI...MAINLY VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR/LOCAL IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

12Z SAT - 00Z SUN...TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 1250 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY
RAIN WITH THIS EVENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1206 PM EST MONDAY...THE ONGOING BATTLE WITH LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUES FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED
TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN VT INTO
THE NORTHERN DACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS PER
PROGGED 1000 TO 850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS OFF THE RAP SHOULD
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY EVENING. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW THIS IN THE
GRIDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST CLOUD COVER BASED
ON VIS SATL PICS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION
WITH COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARMER WATERS. ALSO...VIS SATL PICS
SHOW PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
GRIDS IN THESE AREAS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AFTER A CHILLY START WILL WARM INTO
THE 20S AND 30S FOR HIGHS. DID NOTE SOME SINGLE DIGIT OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM LAST NIGHT WITH NULHEGAN 6F AND
GALLUP MILLS DOWN TO 7F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 315 AM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE FORECAST TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
EVENING WITH SURFACE LEVEL WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY BY MORNING AS A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PULLS OFF SHORE. THAT WILL SLOWLY WARM TEMPS UP
TODAY HOWEVER BOTH THE 925MB AND 850MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM STAY
WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE -2C TO -4C TEMPS AT 925MB WILL
MEAN THAT THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S TODAY FOR MAX TEMPS. TONIGHT WE WILL BENEFIT FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DRIVING IN SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO THE LOW 20S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT
FOR THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHICH WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
ALL IN ALL SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO END
NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON HOLDING OFF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT...SO
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS TO
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG A OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST MONDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING
IN COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND GRADUALLY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES....WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...GFS MODEL SHOWING AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS WELL. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
WITH THIS. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR AT KSLK FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WE`RE STILL DEALING
WITH SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THOUGH MAJORITY
OF IT IS ABOVE 3500 FEET. LATEST TRENDS OF HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT A
PERSISTENCE OF CURRENT CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 21-00Z WHERE
THEREAFTER MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WINS OVER TRENDING SKIES TO SKC FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. AFTER 11-13Z TUESDAY THOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM BUT REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS TODAY LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 00Z FRI...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN TUE/WED TRANSITIONS TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDS NIGHT THROUGH THU BEFORE ENDING.

00Z FRI - 12Z FRI...MAINLY VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR/LOCAL IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

12Z SAT - 00Z SUN...TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 1209 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY
RAIN WITH THIS EVENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1206 PM EST MONDAY...THE ONGOING BATTLE WITH LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUES FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED
TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN VT INTO
THE NORTHERN DACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS PER
PROGGED 1000 TO 850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS OFF THE RAP SHOULD
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY EVENING. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW THIS IN THE
GRIDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST CLOUD COVER BASED
ON VIS SATL PICS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION
WITH COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARMER WATERS. ALSO...VIS SATL PICS
SHOW PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
GRIDS IN THESE AREAS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AFTER A CHILLY START WILL WARM INTO
THE 20S AND 30S FOR HIGHS. DID NOTE SOME SINGLE DIGIT OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM LAST NIGHT WITH NULHEGAN 6F AND
GALLUP MILLS DOWN TO 7F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 315 AM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE FORECAST TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
EVENING WITH SURFACE LEVEL WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY BY MORNING AS A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PULLS OFF SHORE. THAT WILL SLOWLY WARM TEMPS UP
TODAY HOWEVER BOTH THE 925MB AND 850MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM STAY
WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE -2C TO -4C TEMPS AT 925MB WILL
MEAN THAT THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S TODAY FOR MAX TEMPS. TONIGHT WE WILL BENEFIT FROM THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DRIVING IN SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO THE LOW 20S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT
FOR THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHICH WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
ALL IN ALL SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO END
NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON HOLDING OFF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT...SO
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS TO
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG A OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST MONDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING
IN COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND GRADUALLY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES....WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...GFS MODEL SHOWING AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS WELL. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
WITH THIS. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LONE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MSS WHERE SOME
LOWER CLOUDS HAVE HELD ON OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST NIGHT IR
SATELLITE EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR AT MSS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR SO
CHOOSE TO MENTION A SCATTERED DECK RATHER THAN A CEILING AT 3000
FEET. ITS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY AT SLK WHERE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME HINT OF MOISTURE RETURNING OVER MSS
LATER IN THE DAY BUY WITHOUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THICK THE
SATURATED LAYER WILL BE I CHOOSE TO GO WITH SCT INSTEAD OF BKN AT
2500 FT AT 17Z. OTHERWISE FOR ALL OF VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.

18Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...EVENSON/DEAL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 249 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...DIVERSE WEATHER BISECTING NE SC FROM SE NC
WHERE IN KINGSTREE SC...73 DEGREES WITH SUNSHINE IS IN STARK CONTRAST
TO 58 DEGREES WITH A 500 FOOT OVERCAST IN LUMBERTON NC. CLOUDS ARE
APT FILL IN HOWEVER OVER NE SC TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND
MOIST S-SSW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIURNAL COOLING TREND BOOSTS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET. MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF VERY SE NC BUT A FEW SPRITZES
OF LIGHT DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT...FAVORED NORTH OF A
CAPE FEAR TO FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA LINE. THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ALTHOUGH NOT AS AUSTERE...WITH MINIMUMS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF SE NC TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS INLAND NE SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATER
WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG
OF THE FRONT. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT AS THE SHOWERS APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THEY WEAKEN AND REFORM NEAR OR OFF THE COAST. MAY
ALSO SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PEE DEE
AND AREAS N AND W OF LUMBERTON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY THEN HOLD WELL ABOVE CLIMO WEDNESDAY IN THE WARM REGIME
PROCEEDING THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT
ON TAP UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH THE BOTTOM LINE FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS THAT IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN TWO DISTINCT CAMPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE ECMWF
A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING SOLUTION. WPC HAS USED A BLEND. I DID
WALK BACK POPS AND CLOUD COVER FURTHER FOR FRIDAY AS MODELS TREND
FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH ANY ACTIVITY. BEYOND THIS MODEST RIDGING
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES DICTATE  THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY ORIENTED SOLUTION...CONTINUED TO GO SOMEWHAT
BELOW MEX NUMBERS PER WPC AND ADJACENT OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH. THE HRRR MODEL WAS PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS SCENARIO.
SOME LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD AFFECT LBT...BUT
LITTLE AVIATION IMPACT EXPECTED. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE
AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BECOMING IFR SOMETIME IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. WEDGE WILL TRY TO HANG
IN THERE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WAVE NORTHWARD
AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VSBY FROM PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...SLIGHT EASING OF NE WINDS WILL BE TRENDING
OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT VEERING TO ENE. NO ADVISORIES
OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE SPECTRUM A MIX OF NE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY
5 SECONDS AND E WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. NO TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AN
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR BUT
NO SEVERE LIMITS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS
DURING TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO VEER FROM AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT NIGHT.
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DURING WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS SLATED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL VEERING TO THE WEST AND
FINALLY NORTH VERY LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SWAN WAVE FIELD
APPEARS REASONABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH DID KNOCK
SEAS DOWN A BIT LATE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ENDING LATE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE...INITIALLY WEAK AND
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. WIND SPEEDS SHOW A STEADY STATE 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING THEN AN EXTENDED UPTICK TO 20-25 INTO SUNDAY.
A SLOW DECREASE IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
INCREASE FROM 3-5 FEET FRIDAY TO WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL/8




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 100 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...
RESULTING IN COOL AND WET CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM MONDAY...

TEMPS HAVE FINALLY FALLEN INTO THE 40S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE
CAD AIRMASS. TEMPS SHOULD NOW LEVEL OUT THIS MORNING AND HOLD STEADY
THE REST OF THE DAY. RAP ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK TODAY
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...SO RAIN SHOULD BE PERIODIC AND MOSTLY LIGHT
TODAY AS SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVER THE
VERY BROAD RIDGE ALOFT.  THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN ON RADAR CURRENTLY IS
JUST PASSING THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA AND WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR
SUGGEST SOME FURTHER DECREASE IN RAIN RATES WITH TIME AND ONLY A
TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN AT MOST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A JET EMERGES
FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE/LOW-
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN AGAIN.  MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS TO
BE MORE FOCUSED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT INTO VA.
LEAVING LIGHTER RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE WEDGE ERODING ON
TUESDAY. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO
EARLY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAYS FROPA.
AS SUCH...WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE NW...WITH WARMING IN THE SE.
WILL BACK OFF ON THE RAIN A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST...
GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE US 1 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP A
CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE NW AND ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AND INTO WED. HIGHS TUE IN THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 50S NW TO MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 316 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...NOW INDICATING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JET WHEN COMBINED WITH
FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SREF PLUME/SPAGHETTI PLOTS SUGGEST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

SLOWER ARRIVAL OF FRONT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA COULD MEAN THAT
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD STAY MOSTLY DRY UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS.
HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID 70S SOUTHEAST.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT POST-
FRONTAL CAA GOVERNING MIN TEMPS. LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/NEAR
40NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD FILLING ALONG THE WAY AS IT FINALLY EXITS THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...CHAOTIC SPLIT FLOW
REGIME MAY ALLOW A COMPACT/WEAK UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
BY THE WEEKEND AS NUMEROUS INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES CONGLOMERATE OVER
THE REGION. MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT ANY SURFACE
DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN EAST AND
OFFSHORE WITH A STRENGTHENING ~1040MB SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...

COLD AIR DAMMING IS WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA AND POOR AVIATION
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER RAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM KGSO/KINT TO
KRDU AND NORTH.  IFR CEILINGS WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE...AND LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CEILINGS POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO AROUND
200FT AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST.  IF THERE IS ANY IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY IT WILL BE AT
KFAY AND/OR KRWI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE COLD AIR
DAMMING IS NOT LIKELY TO ERODE VERY FAST.

OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY...BUT
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PRECEDE A COLD FRONT SET TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
USHER IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...22




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 1238 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SEASONABLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1238 PM MONDAY...POP VALUES WERE SCALED BACK SIGNIFICANTLY
AS THERE APPEARS NO MECHANISM TO PUSH THE RAIN FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY NORTH OF THE AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
REMAINS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE STRATIFORM RAINFALL OTHER
THAN A SPRITZ OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. NO OTHER SUBSTANTIAL ADJUSTMENTS
WERE NEEDED BUT FINE-TUNING OF T/TD/RH WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AS THE FRONT BRINGS STRONGEST COOLING TO INTERIOR SE NC.
THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
OVERNIGHT FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ALSO...WITH UPPER 40S INTERIOR
SE NC TO UPPER 50S INTERIOR SC BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK
DOWN TUE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. ALOFT THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND CLOSED 5H LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVER GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS AIR
COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TUE
AND TUE NIGHT QUITE LOW FOR MOST AREAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT FIRST
ALOFT AND THEN DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
CLIMO TUE AND WELL ABOVE CLIMO TUE NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WED AS COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW/SURFACE LOW COMBO CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA LATER WED. NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR OR EVEN SUPPORTIVE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT BUT
MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINS LIMITED. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC
POP FOR SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WED AND WED NIGHT
WILL RUN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY THU BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CUTOFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH THU AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HANGING BACK OVER TX WILL KEEP MID LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS WHAT
ULTIMATELY ALLOWS THE FRONT TO STALL IN THE AREA. THE PROXIMITY OF
THE BOUNDARY TO THE COAST WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP
FALLS OVER THE AREA LATE THU AND FRI. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE HELPS INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FRI WITH THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING EAST. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE DO NOT
FEEL MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WOULD ADD
ANY VALUE AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL CARRY SILENT POP FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN DRYING CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO. REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE BOUNDARY AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS
COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH LOWS AROUND 40. SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION TRENDING TEMPERATURES TOWARD
CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH. THE HRRR MODEL WAS PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS SCENARIO.
SOME LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD AFFECT LBT...BUT
LITTLE AVIATION IMPACT EXPECTED. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE
AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BECOMING IFR SOMETIME IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. WEDGE WILL TRY TO HANG
IN THERE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WAVE NORTHWARD
AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VSBY FROM PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1238 PM MONDAY...POST FRONTAL NE WINDS WILL RUN 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...4 FT OUTER
PORTION AND FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. E WAVES IN 10 SEC INTERVALS
IS WANING. AS THE WINDS EASE TONIGHT...THE E SWELL WILL AGAIN
BECOME DOMINANT ENERGY. NE WINDS BY EVENING 1O-15 KT WILL BECOME
EAST TO 10 KT OR LESS AS THE E SWELL SHOWS ITS FACE A BIT MORE.
SEA SPECTRUM E WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS MIXED WITH NE
WAVES 2 FEET EVERY 5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...EASTERLY FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE TUE AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST RETREATS
AND THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN. GRADIENT ON TUE IS LIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BE UNDER 10 KT. STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
PEAK AROUND 15 KT WED EVENING BEFORE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE INTO WED BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE WED IN
RESPONSE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW. DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 2 TO 4 FT SEAS WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...FRONT STALLED EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN A PINCHED
GRADIENT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WOULD LEAD TO FURTHER
INCREASED NORTHEAST FLOW LATER IN THE PERIOD. MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ON THU WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
20 TO 25 KT LATER IN THE DAY FRI AND ON FRI NIGHT. INITIALLY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND 20 NM BUT AS WINDS
VEER TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE COAST RESULTING
IN BUILDING SEAS. THU INTO FRI SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT BUT BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD 6 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME SOME AREAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL/8




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 1135 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM MONDAY...POP VALUES WERE SCALED BACK SIGNIFICANTLY
AS THERE APPEARS NO MECHANISM TO PUSH THE RAIN FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY NORTH OF THE AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
REMAINS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE STRATIFORM RAINFALL OTHER
THAN A SPRITZ OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. NO OTHER SUBSTANTIAL ADJUSTMENTS
WERE NEEDED BUT FINE-TUNING OF T/TD/RH WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AS THE FRONT BRINGS STRONGEST COOLING TO INTERIOR SE NC.
THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
OVERNIGHT FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ALSO...WITH UPPER 40S INTERIOR
SE NC TO UPPER 50S INTERIOR SC BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK
DOWN TUE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. ALOFT THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND CLOSED 5H LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVER GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS AIR
COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TUE
AND TUE NIGHT QUITE LOW FOR MOST AREAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT FIRST
ALOFT AND THEN DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
CLIMO TUE AND WELL ABOVE CLIMO TUE NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WED AS COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW/SURFACE LOW COMBO CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA LATER WED. NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR OR EVEN SUPPORTIVE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT BUT
MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINS LIMITED. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC
POP FOR SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WED AND WED NIGHT
WILL RUN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY THU BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CUTOFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH THU AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HANGING BACK OVER TX WILL KEEP MID LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS WHAT
ULTIMATELY ALLOWS THE FRONT TO STALL IN THE AREA. THE PROXIMITY OF
THE BOUNDARY TO THE COAST WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP
FALLS OVER THE AREA LATE THU AND FRI. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE HELPS INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FRI WITH THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING EAST. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE DO NOT
FEEL MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WOULD ADD
ANY VALUE AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL CARRY SILENT POP FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN DRYING CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO. REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE BOUNDARY AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS
COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH LOWS AROUND 40. SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION TRENDING TEMPERATURES TOWARD
CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH. THE HRRR MODEL WAS PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS SCENARIO.
SOME LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD AFFECT LBT...BUT
LITTLE AVIATION IMPACT EXPECTED. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE
AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BECOMING IFR SOMETIME IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. WEDGE WILL TRY TO HANG
IN THERE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WAVE NORTHWARD
AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VSBY FROM PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM MONDAY...POST FRONTAL NE WINDS WILL RUN 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...4 FT OUTER
PORTION AND FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. E WAVES IN 10 SEC INTERVALS
IS WANING. AS THE WINDS EASE TONIGHT...THE E SWELL WILL AGAIN
BECOME DOMINANT ENERGY. NE WINDS BY EVENING 1O-15 KT WILL BECOME
EAST TO 10 KT OR LESS AS THE E SWELL SHOWS ITS FACE A BIT MORE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...EASTERLY FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE TUE AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST RETREATS
AND THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN. GRADIENT ON TUE IS LIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BE UNDER 10 KT. STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
PEAK AROUND 15 KT WED EVENING BEFORE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE INTO WED BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE WED IN
RESPONSE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW. DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 2 TO 4 FT SEAS WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...FRONT STALLED EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN A PINCHED
GRADIENT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WOULD LEAD TO FURTHER
INCREASED NORTHEAST FLOW LATER IN THE PERIOD. MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ON THU WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
20 TO 25 KT LATER IN THE DAY FRI AND ON FRI NIGHT. INITIALLY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND 20 NM BUT AS WINDS
VEER TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE COAST RESULTING
IN BUILDING SEAS. THU INTO FRI SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT BUT BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD 6 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME SOME AREAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 955 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...
RESULTING IN COOL AND WET CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM MONDAY...

TEMPS HAVE FINALLY FALLEN INTO THE 40S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE
CAD AIRMASS. TEMPS SHOULD NOW LEVEL OUT THIS MORNING AND HOLD STEADY
THE REST OF THE DAY. RAP ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK TODAY
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...SO RAIN SHOULD BE PERIODIC AND MOSTLY LIGHT
TODAY AS SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVER THE
VERY BROAD RIDGE ALOFT.  THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN ON RADAR CURRENTLY IS
JUST PASSING THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA AND WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR
SUGGEST SOME FURTHER DECREASE IN RAIN RATES WITH TIME AND ONLY A
TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN AT MOST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A JET EMERGES
FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE/LOW-
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN AGAIN.  MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS TO
BE MORE FOCUSED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT INTO VA.
LEAVING LIGHTER RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE WEDGE ERODING ON
TUESDAY. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO
EARLY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAYS FROPA.
AS SUCH...WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE NW...WITH WARMING IN THE SE.
WILL BACK OFF ON THE RAIN A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST...
GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE US 1 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP A
CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE NW AND ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AND INTO WED. HIGHS TUE IN THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 50S NW TO MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 316 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...NOW INDICATING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JET WHEN COMBINED WITH
FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SREF PLUME/SPAGHETTI PLOTS SUGGEST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

SLOWER ARRIVAL OF FRONT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA COULD MEAN THAT
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD STAY MOSTLY DRY UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS.
HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID 70S SOUTHEAST.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT POST-
FRONTAL CAA GOVERNING MIN TEMPS. LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/NEAR
40NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD FILLING ALONG THE WAY AS IT FINALLY EXITS THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...CHAOTIC SPLIT FLOW
REGIME MAY ALLOW A COMPACT/WEAK UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
BY THE WEEKEND AS NUMEROUS INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES CONGLOMERATE OVER
THE REGION. MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT ANY SURFACE
DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN EAST AND
OFFSHORE WITH A STRENGTHENING ~1040MB SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: WITH THE CAD WEDGE IN PLACE AND PRECIP
ONGOING...EXPECT ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VISBYS WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT DEPENDING
ON THE WINDS. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE. EXPECT WINDS
TO TAPER OFF THIS AFT/EVE...RESULTING IN VISBYS AGAIN COMING DOWN
AROUND 2 SM.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE LOW CIGS/VISBYS AND RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A BREAK IN THE RAIN...AND POSSIBLY THE
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VISBYS...POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVE/NIGHT...EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE WEDGE AND
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP AND SUB-VFR CIGS AND VISBYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...10




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 944 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM MONDAY...POP VALUES WERE SCALED BACK SIGNIFICANTLY
AS THERE APPEARS NO MECHANISM TO PUSH THE RAIN FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY NORTH OF THE AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
REMAINS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE STRATIFORM RAINFALL OTHER
THAN A SPRITZ OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. NO OTHER SUBSTANTIAL ADJUSTMENTS
WERE NEEDED BUT FINE-TUNING OF T/TD/RH WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AS THE FRONT BRINGS STRONGEST COOLING TO INTERIOR SE NC.
THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
OVERNIGHT FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ALSO...WITH UPPER 40S INTERIOR
SE NC TO UPPER 50S INTERIOR SC BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK
DOWN TUE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. ALOFT THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND CLOSED 5H LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVER GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS AIR
COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TUE
AND TUE NIGHT QUITE LOW FOR MOST AREAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT FIRST
ALOFT AND THEN DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
CLIMO TUE AND WELL ABOVE CLIMO TUE NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WED AS COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW/SURFACE LOW COMBO CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA LATER WED. NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR OR EVEN SUPPORTIVE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT BUT
MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINS LIMITED. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC
POP FOR SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WED AND WED NIGHT
WILL RUN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY THU BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CUTOFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH THU AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HANGING BACK OVER TX WILL KEEP MID LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS WHAT
ULTIMATELY ALLOWS THE FRONT TO STALL IN THE AREA. THE PROXIMITY OF
THE BOUNDARY TO THE COAST WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP
FALLS OVER THE AREA LATE THU AND FRI. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE HELPS INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FRI WITH THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING EAST. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE DO NOT
FEEL MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WOULD ADD
ANY VALUE AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL CARRY SILENT POP FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN DRYING CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO. REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE BOUNDARY AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS
COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH LOWS AROUND 40. SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION TRENDING TEMPERATURES TOWARD
CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FRONT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CWA WITH EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND IT. LOOKS LIKE IFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AS
THE WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL START THE PRECIP
PROCESS...HOWEVER THE HRRR MODEL KEEPS THE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...LIKELY ONLY DRIZZLE AS WELL. LOOK FOR IFR
CONDITIONS TO SET IN...SOME AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VSBY FROM PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM MONDAY...POST FRONTAL NE WINDS WILL RUN 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...4 FT OUTER
PORTION AND FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. E WAVES IN 10 SEC INTERVALS
IS WANING. AS THE WINDS EASE TONIGHT...THE E SWELL WILL AGAIN
BECOME DOMINANT ENERGY. NE WINDS BY EVENING 1O-15 KT WILL BECOME
EAST TO 10 KT OR LESS AS THE E SWELL SHOWS ITS FACE A BIT MORE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...EASTERLY FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE TUE AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST RETREATS
AND THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN. GRADIENT ON TUE IS LIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BE UNDER 10 KT. STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
PEAK AROUND 15 KT WED EVENING BEFORE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE INTO WED BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE WED IN
RESPONSE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW. DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 2 TO 4 FT SEAS WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...FRONT STALLED EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN A PINCHED
GRADIENT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WOULD LEAD TO FURTHER
INCREASED NORTHEAST FLOW LATER IN THE PERIOD. MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ON THU WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
20 TO 25 KT LATER IN THE DAY FRI AND ON FRI NIGHT. INITIALLY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND 20 NM BUT AS WINDS
VEER TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE COAST RESULTING
IN BUILDING SEAS. THU INTO FRI SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT BUT BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD 6 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME SOME AREAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 628 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE NC PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BRING COOL
TEMPS AND BENIGN WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OR THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE THE PROBLEM CHILD THIS PERIOD.
MODELS DO INDICATE THE BACK DOOR FRONT TO SLIDE FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA BEFORE STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ILM AND CHS
CWA BORDER TO JUST SOUTH OF THERE. NEVERTHELESS...THE COOL AIR
WILL LAG AND PRIMARILY ONLY REACH JUST HALFWAY THRU THE ILM CWA
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. WHAT MAKES IT DIFFICULT IS THE SFC HIGH
WEDGING SOUTHWARD...THINKING ITS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH WHICH IN THIS CASE ITS NOT. DURING TONIGHT...THE SFC PG AND
THE RE-ENFORCING COOL AIR RELAXES ACROSS THE FA AS THE PARENT SFC
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FROM THE NE STATES.

PCPN CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT IE. OVERRUNNING. AND THE PCPN WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FRONT WITHIN THE WEAK WEDGING. IN ADDITION...WEAK MID-LEVEL
S/W TROFS/VORTS WILL ALSO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...THE
STEADIEST LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ILM CWA...AND AREAS FURTHER NORTH OF THE ILM CWA. LOOK FOR
POPS TO STEADILY DROP ACROSS THE ILM CWA...WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
OR NO PCPN AT ALL ONCE YOU REACH THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE
FA. TOTAL QPF FIELDS THRU TUE DAYBREAK WILL ROUGHLY RANGE FROM A
TRACE TO LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...HIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA. USED A CONSENSUS AMONGST THE AVBL MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE WITH MAXES/MINS...WITH LOW 70S/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS...RANGING TO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 50 FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK
DOWN TUE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. ALOFT THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND CLOSED 5H LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVER GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS AIR
COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TUE
AND TUE NIGHT QUITE LOW FOR MOST AREAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT FIRST
ALOFT AND THEN DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
CLIMO TUE AND WELL ABOVE CLIMO TUE NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WED AS COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW/SURFACE LOW COMBO CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA LATER WED. NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR OR EVEN SUPPORTIVE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT BUT
MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINS LIMITED. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC
POP FOR SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WED AND WED NIGHT
WILL RUN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY THU BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CUTOFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH THU AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HANGING BACK OVER TX WILL KEEP MID LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS WHAT
ULTIMATELY ALLOWS THE FRONT TO STALL IN THE AREA. THE PROXIMITY OF
THE BOUNDARY TO THE COAST WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP
FALLS OVER THE AREA LATE THU AND FRI. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE HELPS INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FRI WITH THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING EAST. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE DO NOT
FEEL MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WOULD ADD
ANY VALUE AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL CARRY SILENT POP FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN DRYING CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO. REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE BOUNDARY AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS
COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH LOWS AROUND 40. SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION TRENDING TEMPERATURES TOWARD
CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FRONT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CWA WITH EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND IT. LOOKS LIKE IFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AS
THE WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL START THE PRECIP
PROCESS...HOWEVER THE HRRR MODEL KEEPS THE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...LIKELY ONLY DRIZZLE AS WELL. LOOK FOR IFR
CONDITIONS TO SET IN...SOME AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VSBY FROM PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COOL FRONT
DROPPING AND STALLING ACROSS OR SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS...
ALTHOUGH THE SFC PRESSURE FIELDS WILL SUPPORT NE WIND DIRECTIONS
THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE HIGH RIDGING/WEDGING SOUTH...
WILL HAVE ITS TIGHTEST SFC PG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHERE
RESULTING SPEEDS WILL RUN 10-15 KT. DO NOT EXPECT GUSTS TO
EXCEED 20 KT SINCE THE BEST CAA SURGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
ILM WATERS.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE 4 FOOTERS
OCCURRING FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. THE EASTERLY GROUND SWELL OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS IS FINALLY
DISSIPATING NOW...BUT STILL REMAINS AT A HEALTHY 3 FT AT 11
SECOND PERIODS. THIS EASTERLY SWELL WILL HAVE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
SHALLOW BATHYMETRY ASSOCIATED WITH FRYING PAN SHOALS BEFORE
FINALLY AFFECTING THE ILM COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THE
PROCESSES OF REFRACTION/REFLECTION WILL REDUCE THE HEIGHT OF THIS
GROUND SWELL PRIOR TO AFFECTING THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL AID THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS INITIALLY BUT AS
WINDS DIMINISH LATE...THE GROUND SWELL WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...EASTERLY FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE TUE AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST RETREATS
AND THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN. GRADIENT ON TUE IS LIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BE UNDER 10 KT. STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
PEAK AROUND 15 KT WED EVENING BEFORE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE INTO WED BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE WED IN
RESPONSE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW. DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 2 TO 4 FT SEAS WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...FRONT STALLED EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN A PINCHED
GRADIENT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WOULD LEAD TO FURTHER
INCREASED NORTHEAST FLOW LATER IN THE PERIOD. MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ON THU WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
20 TO 25 KT LATER IN THE DAY FRI AND ON FRI NIGHT. INITIALLY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND 20 NM BUT AS WINDS
VEER TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE COAST RESULTING
IN BUILDING SEAS. THU INTO FRI SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT BUT BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD 6 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME SOME AREAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 606 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON
TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS. COOL BUT CLOUDY WEATHER WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OR THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE THE PROBLEM CHILD THIS PERIOD.
MODELS DO INDICATE THE BACK DOOR FRONT TO SLIDE FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA BEFORE STALLING LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE ILM
AND CHS CWA BORDER OR JUST SOUTH OF THERE. NEVERTHELESS...THE COOL
AIR WILL LAG AND PRIMARILY ONLY REACH JUST HALFWAY THRU THE ILM
CWA WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. WHAT MAKES IT DIFFICULT IS THE SFC
HIGH WEDGING SOUTHWARD THINKING ITS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH WHICH IS NOT THE CASE WITH THIS FRONT. DURING
TONIGHT...THE SFC PG AND RE-RE-ENFORCING COOL AIR RELAXES ACROSS
THE FA AS THE PARENT SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FROM THE NE STATES.

PCPN CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OR OVERRUNNING. AND THE PCPN WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT WITHIN THE WEAK WEDGING. IN ADDITION...WEAK MIDLEVEL S/W
TROFS WILL ALSO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...THE STEADIEST
LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ILM
CWA...AND AREAS FURTHER NORTH OF THE ILM CWA. LOOK FOR POPS TO
STEADILY DROP ACROSS THE ILM CWA...WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR NONE
AT ALL ONCE YOU REACH THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA. TOTAL
QPF FIELDS THRU TUE MORNING WILL ROUGHLY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...HIEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
USED A CONSENSUS AMONGST THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE WITH
MAXES/MINS IN THE LOW 70S/UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS...
AND UPPER 50S/AROUND 50 FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK
DOWN TUE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. ALOFT THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND CLOSED 5H LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVER GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS AIR
COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TUE
AND TUE NIGHT QUITE LOW FOR MOST AREAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT FIRST
ALOFT AND THEN DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
CLIMO TUE AND WELL ABOVE CLIMO TUE NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WED AS COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW/SURFACE LOW COMBO CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA LATER WED. NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR OR EVEN SUPPORTIVE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT BUT
MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINS LIMITED. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC
POP FOR SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WED AND WED NIGHT
WILL RUN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY THU BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CUTOFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH THU AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HANGING BACK OVER TX WILL KEEP MID LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS WHAT
ULTIMATELY ALLOWS THE FRONT TO STALL IN THE AREA. THE PROXIMITY OF
THE BOUNDARY TO THE COAST WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP
FALLS OVER THE AREA LATE THU AND FRI. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE HELPS INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FRI WITH THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING EAST. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE DO NOT
FEEL MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WOULD ADD
ANY VALUE AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL CARRY SILENT POP FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN DRYING CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO. REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE BOUNDARY AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS
COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH LOWS AROUND 40. SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION TRENDING TEMPERATURES TOWARD
CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FRONT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CWA WITH EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND IT. LOOKS LIKE IFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AS
THE WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL START THE PRECIP
PROCESS...HOWEVER THE HRRR MODEL KEEPS THE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...LIKELY ONLY DRIZZLE AS WELL. LOOK FOR IFR
CONDITIONS TO SET IN...SOME AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VSBY FROM PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COOL FRONT
DROPPING AND STALLING ACROSS THE FA...ALTHOUGH THE SFC PRESSURE
FIELDS WILL SUPPORT NE WINDS THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE
HIGH RIDGING/WEDGING SOUTH...WILL HAVE ITS TIGHTEST SFC PG BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WHERE RESULTING SPEEDS WILL RUN 10-15 KT. NOT
EXPECTING GUSTS TO REACH OR EXCEED 20 KT SINCE THE BEST CAA SURGE
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE ILM WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE 4 FOOTERS OCCURRING FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD. THE EASTERLY GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS IS FINALLY DISSIPATING NOW BUT STILL
REMAINS AT A HEALTHY 3 FT AT 11 SECOND PERIODS. THIS EASTERLY
SWELL WILL HAVE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SHALLOW BATHYMETRY ASSOCIATED
WITH FRYING PAN SHOALS BEFORE FINALLY AFFECTING THE ILM COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THE PROCESSES OF REFRACTION WILL REDUCE
THIS GROUND SWELL PRIOR TO AFFECTING THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL AID THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS INITIALLY BUT AS
WINDS DIMINISH LATE...THE GROUND SWELL WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...EASTERLY FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE TUE AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST RETREATS
AND THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN. GRADIENT ON TUE IS LIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BE UNDER 10 KT. STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
PEAK AROUND 15 KT WED EVENING BEFORE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE INTO WED BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE WED IN
RESPONSE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW. DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 2 TO 4 FT SEAS WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...FRONT STALLED EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN A PINCHED
GRADIENT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WOULD LEAD TO FURTHER
INCREASED NORTHEAST FLOW LATER IN THE PERIOD. MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ON THU WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
20 TO 25 KT LATER IN THE DAY FRI AND ON FRI NIGHT. INITIALLY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND 20 NM BUT AS WINDS
VEER TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE COAST RESULTING
IN BUILDING SEAS. THU INTO FRI SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT BUT BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD 6 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME SOME AREAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43
MARINE...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 135 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 135 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS
THE EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE WHICH TRIGGERED THE LIGHT SNOW HAS
ROTATED WEST INTO MONTANA. CLOUDY CONDITIONS UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER...AND HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. MODELS HAVE DELAYED
THE TIMING OF SNOW FOR MONDAY...SO MADE AN ADJUSTMENT HERE AS WELL
FOR THIS UPDATE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

WE MADE ANOTHER MINOR UPDATE IN COLLABORATION WITH NWS GRAND FORKS
AND USING TIME-LAGGED HRRR DATA TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST LOWS NOW IN THE
MID 20S F THERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ND AS OF 0245 UTC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ROUNDING THE 500-MB LOW IN WY. RADAR ECHOES ARE WEAK...BUT LIGHT
SNOW WAS REPORTED IN MOBRIDGE SO WE SPREAD A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO THE BISMARCK/MANDAN AREA THROUGH 08 UTC.
LOWS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED USING A TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF HRRR RUNS
AS THAT GUIDANCE IS CAPTURING THE QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP WITH
CLEAR SKIES IN NORTHWEST ND AS WELL AS THE RELATIVELY WARMER LOWS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER
THIS EVENING AND CLOUD COVER WILL REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

NO CHANGES TO THE MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST. THE 00 UTC NAM AND THE
LAST SEVERAL RAP RUNS SUGGEST SNOW ONSET MAY BE DELAYED BY SEVERAL
HOURS AND FOCUSED MORE ON LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAN
THE CURRENT HOURLY FORECAST SUGGESTS THOUGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 559 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

WE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND THROUGH EARLY
EVENING IN RESPECT TO THE RADAR ECHOES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND
WHICH WERE LOCATED FROM HETTINGER TO REGENT AT 2345 UTC. IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY MORE THAN FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW IS OCCURRING WITH
THOSE ECHOES BASED ON OTHER OBSERVATIONAL DATA THOUGH...AND EVEN
THAT SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ALOFT MOVES WESTWARD OUT OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...ONLY
VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF TONIGHT/S FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH NEAR JAMES BAY WITH WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD
LOW STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH CENTER OF CIRCULATION NOW OVER WESTERN WYOMING.
BROAD SHORT WAVE LIFTING OVER THE TOP OF THE LOW BROUGHT SOME
SNOW TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...THOUGH THIS HAS NOW ENDED
OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR UPCOMING WINTER
WEATHER STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS UPPER LOW STARTS TO DO
AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...UPPER LOW WORKS ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST WITH THE
CENTER PUSHING OVER NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. BROAD
SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION WITH SNOW DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE
LIFTING INTO NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON SPREADING WEST AND
NORTH AS THE PRECIPITATION WRAPS OVER THE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

A POTENT STORM IS TAKING AIM ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...IOWA AND MINNESOTA. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE 12 UTC MODEL RUNS
BRING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES VALLEY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE
RATHER LIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND BEST FORCING WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST...BUT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER NEARLY A 24
HOUR PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 135 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY INCLUDING KBIS-KDIK. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR KMOT. SNOW WITH IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE WORST FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 00 UTC
/6 PM CST MONDAY EVENING/ FOR KBIS-KJMS...SPREADING INTO KDIK
AFTER 06Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
NDZ047-048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ034>037-042-045-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 605 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. ON
WEDNESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OCCLUDED FRONT BISECTING OHIO NORTH TO SOUTH AND WAS JUST EAST OF
KCLE AT 3PM. A WARM FRONT WAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OHIO. LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED INVOF THE FRONT AND TO THE EAST WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA ALSO DRAPED IN FOG. TO THE WEST DRIER AIR WAS
ALREADY MOVING IN. THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST AND EXIT
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGHEST POPS FARTHER EAST AS HRRR SHOWS THIS LIGHT RAIN
EXPANDING A BIT. WILL TAPER POPS WEST WITH KCLE ONLY IN CHANCE CAT
WITH NO POPS WEST OF THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. WITH THE DRIER AIR
MOVING IN TREND WILL ALSO BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING SO WILL HAVE A TREND OF MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY OR THIS
EVENING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR OHIO ZONES. USED GUIDANCE
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE
SREF IN BRINGING IT ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST BUT
WILL CONTINUE DRY EAST. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS DROP TROUGH THE
DAY...PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
THROUGH THE EVENING HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -4 TO -6C WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION AND THE CENTRAL LAKES. BELIEVE AS
SURFACE TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE EVENING SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO MIX IN
AS MOISTURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. IN THE SNOWBELT HOWEVER DID
CONTINUE TO GO WITH AROUND AN INCH AND MAY BE JUST A BIT MORE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT DEVELOPS. THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN NWRN PA AND CHANCE POPS NERN OHIO.
THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST BUT MOISTURE WILL HANG BACK WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER IN EARLY DECEMBER WILL BE UPON THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BECOME THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE INTO THE WEEKEND. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST PERIOD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  FAIR WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. NO REAL STRONG WARM
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BUT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE IN
THE 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN
PUSHING EAST TOWARD CLE AND MFD WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE MUCH FURTHER
PROGRESS TO THE EAST TONIGHT AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. THUS IFR OR LOW
MVFR WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE IN FOG AND STRATUS THRU THE NIGHT THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE TO HIGHER MVFR OR VFR INTO MIDDAY WED. AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...THINK FOG SHOULD START TO FORM IN THE WEST
BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO KEEP MIXING JUST ENOUGH SO THAT VSBY`S MAY
NOT DROP TO 2SM OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MUCH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU THEN MAINLY
SNOWBELT THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT ON THE
LAKE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE BY THURSDAY AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT WE
WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY THEN AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
EVENTUALLY FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...LOMBARDY



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 1246 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH TODAY...STALLS TONIGHT...THEN RETURNS AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...

SURFACE FRONT STILL HANGING OUT JUST S OF THE AREA AS OF
00Z...WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY ALONG WITH PATCHY DZ OVER THE AREA IN
THE SHALLOW COOL SECTOR. A WAVE ON THE FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH A SWATH OF RAIN. THIS WILL PUSH IN FROM THE SW
THIS EVENING UP TO ABOUT THE I64 CORRIDOR AND UP THE I79 CORRIDOR.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL TRY TO RETURN N AS A WARM FRONT INTO
TOMORROW...PROBABLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE AS SURFACE WINDS ONLY
MANAGE TO SWING AROUND TO THE E. AS THE FLOW OFF THE SURFACE TURNS
MORE SE MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW CIGS AND VSBY TO LIFT OVER THE
LOWLANDS WHILE HOLDING IN OVER THE E SLOPES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

AS OF AROUND 1 PM...COLD FRONT SINKING INTO SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS. SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO MOVE INTO SE OHIO...BUT IT IS
SLOW GOING AND THINK LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF
WV/KY/VA. SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING INTO TN
VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD DRIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
CWA TONIGHT...SLIDING NORTH UP THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. WARM FRONT
INCHING TOWARD SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE MONDAY AS DEEPENING LOW MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...THINGS ARE PRETTY MESSY
ALOFT WITH LOTS OF LITTLE RIPPLES SLIDING THROUGH. DUE TO
THIS...KEPT LOW END POPS ACROSS MUCH OF CWA...AND HAVE DRIZZLE
MENTIONED AS WELL THROUGH TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS...USING A BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS BLEND. DID MIX IN SOME HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLAT 5H RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS CUT-OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PLOWS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND MOVES NORTH WITH CUT-OFF LOW. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL KEEP TO OUR SOUTH JUST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING US TO AVOID ANY WATER ISSUES. HOWEVER...THIS
FORECAST PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE FAIRLY WET WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF
QPF FIGURED FOR THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...BLENDING IN THE SREF LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR POPS...AND OVERALL BLEND FOR THE TEMPS. RESULT IS NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST AND A CONTINUATION TO THE
MILD AND WET PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE A LITTLE SHARPER AND COOLER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A BIT
MORE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL
LINGER THE SCATTERED NORTHERN MOUNTAIN RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
ENDING BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS REMAINDER OF THE
AREA IN THE COLD ADVECTION. STILL NO REALLY COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY WARM UP...TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY SATURDAY UNDER LACK OF CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TODAY...LIFTING THE RAIN NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER ONCE
AGAIN. WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR ALREADY FIRMLY IN PLACE...THE
MAIN PLAYER IN THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE THE WIND.

WIND WILL VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST...CREATING AN
UPSLOPE CONDITION FOR BKW...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES END
UP IN DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE FLOW.
SO...AT CRW TO CKB AND EKN...EXPECT AVIATION CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
FROM MVFR TO VFR FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.

BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN BRINGS IFR BACK AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ANY CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 11/30/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
THEN COLD FRONT PASS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/26
NEAR TERM...MZ/26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 859 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

.UPDATE...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT FORECAST REMAINING ON TRACK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE IN SW-NE ORIENTED
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK PERSISTING ACROSS SERN TX. MAY SEE AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED
BY LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SOUTH OF HWY 59. WILL KEEP SLGT CHANCE
WORDING IN PLACE WITH CHANCE WORDING NEAR THE COAST. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND SOME CLEARING UP NORTH WILL DIP OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL
INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP CAUTIONARY WORDING
IN PLACE FOR THE NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES...AND WARRANTS SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS BEGINNING AROUND 2AM AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING.

48

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE FROPA OVER THE SOUTH
BUT MOST TAF SITES WILL RANGE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR CIGS THROUGH 06Z
TRANSITIONING TO CLEAR SKIES FOR WEDNESDAY. 925 MB WINDS ARE
BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY AND UNDER FULL SUN...THERE
SHOULD BE SOME MIXING SO ADDED A GUST GROUP FOR MOST TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      59  43  62  37  60 /  20  10  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              56  49  62  42  60 /  40  20  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            59  56  63  50  59 /  40  40  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 600 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME OF THESE LOW
CLOUDS (MVFR) WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT KSAT AND KSSF FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR SKIES WITH HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT. FOR NOW... WE/LL KEEP CLOUD BASES JUST
ABOVE MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

QUIET SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS A DRY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE FOUR CORNER REGION PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
PLACE A WEAK COLD FRONT/DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
CHARACTERIZED WITH LOW TEENS DEWPOINTS TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
AND 30S/40S DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND
BRING SOME STRONGER NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH. DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
BEEN ABLE TO PRECEDE THE FRONT AND THIS HAS ACTED TO INCREASE THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WITH WEAKER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR
THE COASTAL PLAINS. WHILE SOME VIRGA WILL BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LOWER LEVELS PER NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST IT WILL QUITE DIFFICULT FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND. HAVE REMOVED AND WEATHER MENTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AND REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TO ONLY 10% FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH
EVEN LESS VALUES FARTHER WEST.

THE CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL ALLOW FOR
A COOLER MORNING AND HAVE GONE BELOW SUPERBLEND VALUES THAT ARE
MORE IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH LINE UP TOWARDS RAW MAV/MET
MOS. EXPECT A DECENT WARM-UP WEDNESDAY AFTN AS AMPLE SUN COMBINES
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO
UPPER 60S.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY AS CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OCCUR. BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
BUT MAY ALSO BE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH ONLY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE COOLEST OF THE PERIOD WITH
LOCALIZED FREEZING POCKETS OCCURRING IN THE HILL COUNTRY. OTHER
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AS CLEAR
SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR NEAR CALM WINDS AIDS A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PWATS ONLY RECOVER TO 0.5"-0.7" AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IT WILL BE
QUITE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR RAIN CHANCES. HAVE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY TO
THE 10-15% RANGE GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS OF LITTLE TO NO
RAIN EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER LIKELY CHANCE OF SOME
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE HILL COUNTRY NEXT TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  65  41  61  38 /  -   -    0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  40  65  37  61  34 /  -   -    0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     44  65  38  62  36 /  -   -    0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            40  62  37  60  36 /  -    0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  68  39  65  38 /  -    0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        40  62  37  59  35 /  -   -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             43  67  36  64  35 /  -   -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        43  64  38  61  36 /  -   -    0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   46  64  40  61  37 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  67  38  64  37 /  -   -    0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           46  66  40  64  38 /  -   -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

 1149 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

.AVIATION...
DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AT BOTH KPVW AND KLBB AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KCDS...SHALLOW MOISTURE
SLOW TO ERODE BUT SHOULD BREAK UP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALTHOUGH
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG VERY WELL ARE EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING. WE HAVE
RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR KCDS AS SEEMS AS REASONABLE AS
ANYTHING ELSE RIGHT NOW. STILL BATTLING WITH SOME INCONSISTENT
LOOKING INFORMATION FROM THE HRRR WHICH ATTEMPTS TO HOLD ON TO
STRATUS ALL DAY BARELY NORTH OF KCDS. AND THERE IS A STRATUS LAYER
TO THE NORTH THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SURGE SOUTHWARD AGAIN DURING THE
EVENING BUT IT IS BADLY ERODING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EDGE RIGHT
NOW. ANYWAY...LOOK FOR KCDS TO RETURN TO IFR/LIFR MID OR LATE
EVENING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO MIRE THE TERMINALS WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE
A RETURN TO VFR BY AROUND MID-MORNING FOR KLBB AND KPVW...AND
TOWARD MIDDAY AT KCDS. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS /PARTICULARLY ON
THE CAPROCK/ WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
A RISK FOR THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KCDS LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH KPVW AND KLBB SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT HELPED CREATE ALL THE ICY EXCITEMENT OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WAS NOW SPINNING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE
LARGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY AND THEN
ON TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL DROP A HEFTY SWATH
OF SNOW. SOUTH OF THE LOW...A 120+ KT SUBTROPICAL JET WAS CARRYING
PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS...BUT MUCH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY THE 00Z RAOBS
FROM KAMA AND KMAF. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED IN PLACE
AND COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...THIS WAS
FOSTERING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE. THE FOG HAS BEEN
MORE WIDESPREAD...AND OCCASIONALLY DENSE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK THROUGH 9 AM.

FOR THOSE OF YOU MISSING THE SUN...WINDS WERE ALREADY VEERING TO A
WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AS OF 09Z...AND MUCH
DRIER AIR POISED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL QUICKLY ADVECT ACROSS
THE CWA...FROM WEST TO EAST...BEHIND A PACIFIC FROPA THIS MORNING.
SO ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL START OFF CLOUDY AND FOGGY...QUICK
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH PLENTY OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INSOLATION WILL BE PAIRED WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
/SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPROCK FOR A PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON/. THE SUN AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE RIDGE NOSES
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OFF THE CAPROCK...THOUGH DRIER
AIR AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD STAVE OFF THE FOG THREAT
FURTHER TO THE WEST ON THE CAPROCK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
20S FOR MOST LOCALES.

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY/S WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING
FOG ACROSS THE EAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S...JUST ON
THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM...AND MOST MODEL QPF PROGS ARE
DRY...SAVE FOR THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN SPITTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY ALONG THE NEXT
COOL SURGE. WE/VE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED
WEAK FORCING AND MEAGER MOISTURE. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH
WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 40S/LOW 50S FOR WED...WHICH WILL
THEN RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THE MOST PART BY FRIDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE NEXT...MORE
SIGNIFICANT...STORM SYSTEM WILL BE EDGING TOWARD THE REGION BY
SATURDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS STILL BEEN BOUNCING AROUND
WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND GFS
RUNS ARE NOT FAR APART WITH SHOWING A 500MB LOW OVER ERN CO AND
ERN NM BY SUNDAY MORNING. GULF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIMITED UNLESS THE STORM TRACKS SLOWER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. STILL...THE COMBINATION
OF LIFT FROM THE SYSTEM AND THAT FROM ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PROVE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA. WITH QUITE A BIT
OF LINGERING UNCERTAINTY STILL SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM WE HAVE
MAINTAINED POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE. ALSO UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME IS WHETHER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT FREEZING PRECIP...BUT
FORECAST LOW TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ON THE CAPROCK BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 1050 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

.AVIATION...
WILL CONTINUE THE IFR ACROSS SAT/SSF/AUS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHOWERS NEAR THE AUS TERMINAL ARE NOW SHIFTING EAST SO I DONT
THINK THEY WILL HAVE ANY OTHER PRECIP OVERNIGHT BESIDES MAYBE SOME
VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. AM STILL ADVERTISING LIFR AT
AUS/SAT BY EARLY MORNING...WITH SSF ALSO WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF
GETTING LIFR. VAD WIND PROFILES AT GRK AND EWX SHOW GOOD
OVERRUNNING WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR HOLDING STRONG AT THE SURFACE.
THE IFR SHOULD STICK AROUND SAT/SSF/AUS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
MAYBE SOME PARTIAL IMPROVEMENTS...MVFR...BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

DRT CLEARED OUT SOMEWHAT BY LATE EVENING AND THE CLOUD DECK HAS
BEEN HOLDING JUST OFF TO THEIR EAST. VAD PROFILE FROM DFX SHOWS
FAIRLY DEEP NW FLOW NOW OVER THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BACK OFF FROM ANY IFR/MVR OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP
THAT TREND. DO HAVE SOME MVFR BY MID MORNING HOWEVER WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/

UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER TRAVIS...BASTROP...
WILLIAMSON...AND LEE COUNTIES. SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS. GIVEN COVERAGE HAVE LOWERED
POPS FOR THE REST OF THE FIRST PERIOD. HAVE ALSO CHANGED WEATHER
TYPE TO LIGHT SHOWERS INSTEAD OF SPRINKLES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ADJUSTED HOURLY
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/

AVIATION...
I35 SITES WILL KEEP AT IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THEY WILL DROP TO LIFR BY DAWN. VISBYS HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. TOUGHER FORECAST OUT IN DRT WHERE THEY ARE SEEING A
SMALL BREAK IN THE CEILINGS OFF TO THE WEST. WILL BE CLOSE WHETHER
OR NOT THEY WILL GO VFR. BANKING ON THEM NOT SEEING MUCH
IMPROVEMENT AS COOLING TEMPS WILL LIKELY BRING IN ADDITIONAL
CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR MODEST IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF SOME VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. WITH HOW CLOUDY
AND COOL IT HAS BEEN, WILL BE ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF
RAPID IMPROVEMENT LATE MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY AS THE COLD AND SOGGY
CONDITIONS SLOWLY ABATE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.

WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CLOSED
GYRE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THAT IS FEEDING WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER TEXAS. THIS WSW FLOW IS OVERTOP OF THE COOL AND
DENSE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS PROMOTING CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY
CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER DOWN
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS RISE ALONG THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES. THE
COLD CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHT WARMING
EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW-LVL CLOUDS DISPERSE. HOWEVER MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS LOOK TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND THIS WILL
HAMPER THE WARMTH. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE REST OF THE REGION DRY TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

NO HAZARD HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS A SLIGHT
WARM UP TUESDAY OCCURS JUST BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY MID WEEK
THAT WILL BRING 30-50% RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHILE A BACKSIDE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL AID IN PUSHING A
COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1.3" IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS WHERE A WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL SET-UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL LOWER AND THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG
AND EAST OF US 281. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
GIVEN LIMITED MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 150-200 J/KG AND LIMITED
MOISTURE. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING
AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY COLD AS HIGHS (WITH THE SUN OUT)
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE 60S AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER CLEAR AND SEASONAL
LATE FALL DAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...MOISTURE APPEARS TOO LIMITED WITH THIS COLD FRONT FOR MUCH
MORE THAN JUST SHOWERS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS ANY
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE RETURN COULD ALLOW FOR DEEPER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  56  48  58  46 /  20  10  20  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  44  56  47  58  45 /  20  20  20  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  56  49  59  47 /  20  10  20  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  55  44  58  42 /  20  10  10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  61  50  63  48 /  10  -   10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        41  55  44  57  43 /  20  10  10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             45  59  50  60  47 /  10  10  10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  56  48  57  46 /  20  20  20  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   47  56  50  58  49 /  20  20  30  40  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  58  51  59  48 /  10  10  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  58  51  60  49 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 957 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA
LATE ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...

KEEPING WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
MOVING ACROSS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST
6 HOURS HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...MAINLY STAYING UNDER ONE HALF INCH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS PER RADAR HAS BEEN ONE HALF TO JUST OVER THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN SOUTHERN WILKES AND YADKIN COUNTIES.

00Z PWAT FROM RNK WAS 1.06" AND MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS PWATS OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES IN THE REGION...WHICH IS RUNNING ALMOST 3 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. HENCE THE FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION...

MODIFIED FORECAST THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS...WHICH
MATCHED WELL WITH THE 22Z HRRR AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 18Z NAM.
MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SW CWA AFTER 8 PM...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER TIL 8 PM.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE INCREASE IN RAINFALL BY MIDNIGHT...WHERE
IT WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...NWD INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE INTO THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. UPPER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ABOUT 1/4 INCH IN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE SW...THOUGH 24 TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2"
BETWEEN 7 PM THIS EVENING AND 7 PM WEDNESDAY.

PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
SHALLOW WEDGE WAS STILL IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BUT WIND SPEEDS WERE LIGHT. MSAS LIFTED INDEX
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WEDGE EXTENDED WELL INTO NORTH CAROLINA.
BUFKIT FORECAST HAD THE DEPTH OF THE WEDGE LESS THAN 1500 FEET.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOWN A VERY SLOW RISE TODAY. THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...LIKE HOT SPRINGS...THAT WERE ABOVE THE INVERSION
HAD WARMED INTO THE 50S.

WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUED TO SHOW A LONG PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION. CHALLENGING TO DISCERN ANY OF THE SHORT WAVES IN THIS FLOW
BUT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALONG THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BACK THE WINDS AND HELP
INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
REMAINS STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

STAYED WITH A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND OVERNIGHT AND FOR
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN MOST
LOCATIONS BEFORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION ADVANCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AS IT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE LOW CENTER WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA
ON ITS WAY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND GENERATE SOME UPSLOPE
RAIN/TO/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE A
LIGHT COATING IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH A 40 KNOT 850 MB JET
AND 4 TO 5MB 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ON THE GFS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THURSDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID
20S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOW 50S IN
THE EAST. IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES DROPPING TO THE
MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE. THE GFS CUTS OFF THE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS AN OPEN
WAVE AND PUSHES IT OUT TO SEA. IN ANY CASE ...THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS FEATURE REMAINS LIMITED...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING IN THE
EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN A SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE COAST
FROM THE GULF. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS THIS IS OVER A WEEK AWAY. THE
GFS IS WETTER THAN THE ECMWF. WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST TUESDAY...

MAINLY IFR OR WORSE EXPECTED THROUGH AT WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH
SOME POCKETS OF MVFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE WEDGE...NAMELY BLF AT
TIMES WITH MODERATE RAIN OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE VARIABILITY IN VSBYS BASED ON INTENSITY OF RAINFALL.
TYPICAL FLUCTUATIONS WILL RUN FROM 1/4 TO 1SM IN MODERATE RAIN OR
WHEN RAIN TAPERS OFF...WHILE CIGS MAY LIFT TOWARD MVFR AROUND
1-2KFT IF RAIN COMES DOWN HARD ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE LOW CIGS
SOME.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT 00Z-15Z WILL SEE SUB MVFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL SITES.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WED WINDS START TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A BKN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING IN. THE WEDGE ERODES
BY AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE CIGS IN MVFR WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH RAIN SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF
BLF/LWB/BCB...20-21Z...AND ROA BY 22Z...LINGERING AT LYH/DAN TIL
END OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OFF. WINDS WILL START TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT BLF/LWB LATE AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT LEAST AT BLF DURING THIS TIME.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY IMPROVE EAST
OF THE WV/VA MTNS...WITH WEST TO NW FLOW SCOURING OUT ANY CIGS.
SOME IFR IN UPSLOPE AREAS AT KBLF AND KLWB WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND FRONT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER PATCHY EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT MORNING DUE TO MOIST GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 950 PM AM EST TUESDAY...

FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE LOCATIONS IT
COVERS. WITH PWATS 200-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THE RAINFALL
EFFICIENCY SHOULD BE HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY...THE
THREAT FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
1AM...IN THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES UP
FROM THE SMOKYS.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH MAIN STEM RIVERS AND THE HEADWATERS...LIKE
UPPER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER. PRESENTLY...THE DAN RIVER FROM
DANVILLE...DOWNSTREAM TO SOUTH BOSTON IS FAVORED TO GO TO NEAR
FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING...IF THE RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES
PANS OUT THROUGH TOMORROW. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW MUCH ACTUALLY
FALLS BEFORE ANY FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-010-
     012>017-022>024-032>035-045>047.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/SK/WP
HYDROLOGY...KK/SK/WP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 652 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA
LATE ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM EST TUESDAY...

MODIFIED FORECAST THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS...WHICH
MATCHED WELL WITH THE 22Z HRRR AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 18Z NAM.
MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SW CWA AFTER 8 PM...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER TIL 8 PM.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE INCREASE IN RAINFALL BY MIDNIGHT...WHERE
IT WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...NWD INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE INTO THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. UPPER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ABOUT 1/4 INCH IN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE SW...THOUGH 24 TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2"
BETWEEN 7 PM THIS EVENING AND 7 PM WEDNESDAY.

PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
SHALLOW WEDGE WAS STILL IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BUT WIND SPEEDS WERE LIGHT. MSAS LIFTED INDEX
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WEDGE EXTENDED WELL INTO NORTH CAROLINA.
BUFKIT FORECAST HAD THE DEPTH OF THE WEDGE LESS THAN 1500 FEET.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOWN A VERY SLOW RISE TODAY. THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...LIKE HOT SPRINGS...THAT WERE ABOVE THE INVERSION
HAD WARMED INTO THE 50S.

WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUED TO SHOW A LONG PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION. CHALLENGING TO DISCERN ANY OF THE SHORT WAVES IN THIS FLOW
BUT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALONG THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BACK THE WINDS AND HELP
INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
REMAINS STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

STAYED WITH A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND OVERNIGHT AND FOR
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN MOST
LOCATIONS BEFORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION ADVANCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AS IT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE LOW CENTER WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA
ON ITS WAY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND GENERATE SOME UPSLOPE
RAIN/TO/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE A
LIGHT COATING IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH A 40 KNOT 850 MB JET
AND 4 TO 5MB 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ON THE GFS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THURSDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID
20S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOW 50S IN
THE EAST. IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES DROPPING TO THE
MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE. THE GFS CUTS OFF THE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS AN OPEN
WAVE AND PUSHES IT OUT TO SEA. IN ANY CASE ...THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS FEATURE REMAINS LIMITED...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING IN THE
EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN A SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE COAST
FROM THE GULF. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS THIS IS OVER A WEEK AWAY. THE
GFS IS WETTER THAN THE ECMWF. WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST TUESDAY...

MAINLY IFR OR WORSE EXPECTED THROUGH AT WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH
SOME POCKETS OF MVFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE WEDGE...NAMELY BLF AT
TIMES WITH MODERATE RAIN OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE VARIABILITY IN VSBYS BASED ON INTENSITY OF RAINFALL.
TYPICAL FLUCTUATIONS WILL RUN FROM 1/4 TO 1SM IN MODERATE RAIN OR
WHEN RAIN TAPERS OFF...WHILE CIGS MAY LIFT TOWARD MVFR AROUND
1-2KFT IF RAIN COMES DOWN HARD ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE LOW CIGS
SOME.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT 00Z-15Z WILL SEE SUB MVFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL SITES.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WED WINDS START TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A BKN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING IN. THE WEDGE ERODES
BY AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE CIGS IN MVFR WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH RAIN SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF
BLF/LWB/BCB...20-21Z...AND ROA BY 22Z...LINGERING AT LYH/DAN TIL
END OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH TAPERING OFF. WINDS WILL START TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT BLF/LWB LATE AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT LEAST AT BLF DURING THIS TIME.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY IMPROVE EAST
OF THE WV/VA MTNS...WITH WEST TO NW FLOW SCOURING OUT ANY CIGS.
SOME IFR IN UPSLOPE AREAS AT KBLF AND KLWB WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND FRONT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER PATCHY EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT MORNING DUE TO MOIST GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 350 PM AM EST TUESDAY...

WILL EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE
ORIGINAL COUNTIES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE A FLOOD WATCH. SMALL
STREAMS WERE ALREADY STARTING TO RESPOND TO RAINFALL FROM MONDAY
NIGHT AND TODAY. SEEING SHARP RISES ON SOME OF THE RIVER GAUGES IN
THE HEADWATERS OF THE ROANOKE RIVER. THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF
ROANOKE AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS HAVE HAD GENERALLY ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER INCH TO INCH AND HALF OF RAIN...1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES...IS
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY
RISE ABOVE BANKFULL. LOW WATER CROSSING AND POOR DRAINING AREAS IN
URBAN LOCATIONS MAY BE FLOODED. TRIBUTARIES THAT FEED INTO THE
YADKIN RIVER...THE HEADWATERS OF THE NEW RIVER...THE ROANOKE...AND
THE UPPER DAN RIVER MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING. SOME MINOR FLOODING
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THE DAN AND ROANOKE RIVERS WELL
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-010-
     012>017-022>024-032>035-045>047.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/SK/WP
HYDROLOGY...KK/SK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 917 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH LATE ON TUESDAY. WAVES
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIFT OVER THIS WEDGE RESULTING IN
CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A FINAL ROUND OF RAIN BEFORE FINALLY
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND IT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 917 AM EST MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COLD WEDGE WILL CONTINUE PERIODS OF RAIN
INTO TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE PUSHING SOUTH
FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS MORNING RNK SOUNDING 12Z SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 2800
AND A PWAT AT 1.02 INCHES WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEEP
MOISTURE...1-2 STD DEVIATION...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE MODIFIED TEMPERATURE TO
FIT BETTER FOR LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. SHAPED
MORNING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COOL LAV GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
AND SREF KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. USED THE HOURLY MAXT SMART TOOL TO
CALCULATE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS ALREADY REACH IN
MANY AREAS...AS USUAL A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN CAD
SITUATION. READINGS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S IN THE FAR WEST.


AS OF 700 AM EST MONDAY...

AREA OF MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NW NC HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF AREA BUT
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM SOUTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED
TO EXPAND ACROSS ENTIRE FCST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. AT TIMES
RAIN MAY TAPER TO DRIZZLE ACROSS MANY PORTIONS LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER WEDGE WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATING LIGHT RAIN GOING MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...AND EXPECT ANOTHER WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
REALLY NO CHANGES TO POPS OR QPF FOR THIS UPDATE...BUT COLDER
TEMPS AND DEW PTS CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED SO ADJUSTED CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS EAST
AND CENTRAL PORTION OF AREA DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES AND CONTINUE TO
HAVE THEM SLOWLY DROPPING THROUGH LATE MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING
STEADY OR PERHAPS A SLOW MODERATION. THUS ALSO ADJUSTED DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT TEMPS AS GENERALLY TEMPS WILL FALL OR
REMAIN STEADY IN ALL LOCATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...

WEDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS FCST AREA AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO STEADILY DROP BEHIND IT. BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW WELL TO
THE SOUTH...AND INITIAL MAIN WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SHIFTING WEST
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FCST AREA. RAINFALL
TOTALS AS OF 4AM HAVE BEEN A HALF IN TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH ACROSS
NW NC...OTHERWISE LESS THAN THIS. BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE MOVING
OUT THIS MORNING...RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE DAY TO VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BUT LIKELY NOT END
COMPLETELY GIVEN A SOUTHERLY 850MB JET CONTINUING MOST OF THE DAY.
RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN PRECIP
PRODUCTION LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING
NORTH...UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. AREA RADAR MOSAIC SUGGESTS THIS
TREND WILL OCCUR BUT AGAIN GIVEN THE MOIST FLOW OVER THE WEDGE AND
SOME DEGREE OF UPSLOPE ALONG BLUE RIDGE...DO NOT EXPECT RAIN TO
COMPLETELY END FOR ANY OF THE DAY...BUT IT MAY BE VERY LIGHT. THUS
CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS ALL DAY BUT WITH LOWERING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND SOME SHIFT TOWARD NORTHERN PART OF AREA AS DAY GOES
ON. AS WEDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY HAVE DEPICTED
TEMPS STEADY OR EVEN CONTINUING TO DROP IN SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...AND MAYBE SOME SLIGHT RISES AGAIN
LATE...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHWEST FRINGES. FOR THE MOST PART...HIGHS
WILL BE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
MOST GUIDANCE FOR THE DAY.

BY THIS EVENING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND IS LIKELY
TO SPREAD ANOTHER AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTION OF AREA...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER WAVE SLIDING UP THE WEST
SIDE OF APPALACHIANS AS 850 FLOW TURNS BACK TO SOUTHWEST. THIS IN
ADVANCE OF DEEPENING AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. AT
THIS POINT DO NOT THINK THIS PRECIP WILL BE QUITE AS MUCH AS WHAT
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...AND MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING INTO AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN
AS MUCH RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM ADDITIONAL
RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...

WET SCENARIO IS SET TO PLAY OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DEEP MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN SURGES AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW...BUT THE MAIN PERIOD TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE AS A VIGOROUS UPPER CLOSED LOW
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GENERATES A SERIES OF WAVES ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES WHILE ALSO SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN...LEADING
TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR SO ESPECIALLY
FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO VIRGINIA ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL
IN RELATION TO WHERE HEAVY RAIN WILL HAVE FALLEN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES UNTIL IT
BECOMES MORE CLEAR EXACTLY WHAT AREAS WILL BE RECEIVING SUCCESSIVE
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY
CANDIDATES FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD IN THE HWO.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH FAIR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH A GOOD SURGE OF WARM AIR AS THE WEDGE
ERODES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
REACH THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRINGS READINGS TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY...

LINGERING UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A LARGE DOME
OF MORE PACIFIC NATURE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO
LATE WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH AND BECOMING WEDGED DOWN THE COAST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ALSO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 5H UPPER LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
UNDERNEATH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. THIS AGAIN COULD
INTERACT MORE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE LEFTOVER COASTAL
BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT THIS STILL APPEARS LESS LIKELY NOW PER LATEST DRIER
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST GFS/CMC THAT KEEPS PRECIP SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE WILL BE GOING DRY FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY AND GIVEN MOST COLD AIR
LOCKED TO THE NORTH EXPECTING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL HIGHS
WITH ONLY SOME LOWS BELOW FREEZING UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EST MONDAY...

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...ALONG WITH MOISTURE LIFTING
OVERTOP OF THIS LAYER AND PRODUCING RAIN...IS RESULTING IN IFR
CEILINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING IN LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
EXPECTING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH VALID TAF PERIOD OTHER
THAN RAIN MAY TAPER OFF AT TIMES LATER TODAY AND SOME CEILINGS
COULD LIFT TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY AT KROA. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
5 MILES DURING THE DAY...BUT MAY BRIEFLY DROP EARLY THIS MORNING
TO 3-4 MILES IN THE MOUNTAINS...BEFORE LIKELY LOWERING TO 1-3
MILES BY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IFR TO LIFR
OVERNIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE OF MORE STREADY RAIN WILL MOVE IN
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR CALM.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 12Z
TUES MORNING...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL BRIEFER PERIODS
OF MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE MOVING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OVER THE COOL
WEDGE WILL BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
ATTENDANT MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO THE REGION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TEMPORARILY TUES NIGHT AS THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH BEFORE A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SOME RELATIVELY BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL
FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN NW FLOW...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR IN UPSLOPE
AREAS AT KBLF AND KLWB MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURS MORNING BEHIND
FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...

A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
LASTING INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS A WEDGE OF
COOL AIR ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. RAINFALL THROUGH 4AM MONDAY HAS
BEEN CLOSE TO AN INCH ACROS PORTIONS OF WAUTAGA COUNTY NC...AND
OTHERWISE A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF MOISTURE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY COULD TOTAL
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME OF THESE AREAS BUT RATES WILL
GENERALLY RELATIVELY LIGHT. HOWEVER...HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE THEN
EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS PRECIPITATION COULD BE MUCH HIGHER AND
FALL ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...WITH ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF WEDNESDAY. RUNOFF FROM THIS
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE EARLIER RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS
WEST. SOME RIVER FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE PROLONGED
NATURE OF THE RUNOFF AND FINAL TOTALS THAT COULD APPROACH 3 TO 4
INCHES IN SPOTS. THUS A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AT LEAST SOME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS THROUGH TONIGHT AND FCST TRENDS
FOR WHAT IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL RAINFALL TUES NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...KK/SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/RCS/SK
HYDROLOGY...JH/SK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 718 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH LATE ON TUESDAY. WAVES
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIFT OVER THIS WEDGE RESULTING IN
CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A FINAL ROUND OF RAIN BEFORE FINALLY
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND IT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EST MONDAY...

AREA OF MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NW NC HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF AREA BUT
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM SOUTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED
TO EXPAND ACROSS ENTIRE FCST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. AT TIMES
RAIN MAY TAPER TO DRIZZLE ACROSS MANY PORTIONS LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER WEDGE WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATING LIGHT RAIN GOING MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...AND EXPECT ANOTHER WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
REALLY NO CHANGES TO POPS OR QPF FOR THIS UPDATE...BUT COLDER
TEMPS AND DEW PTS CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST A
LITTL FASTER THAN EXPECTED SO ADJUSTED CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS EAST
AND CENTRAL PORTION OF AREA DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES AND CONTINUE TO
HAVE THEM SLOWLY DROPPING THROUGH LATE MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING
STEADY OR PERHAPS A SLOW MODERATION. THUS ALSO ADJUSTED DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT TEMPS AS GENERALLY TEMPS WILL FALL OR
REMAIN STEADY IN ALL LOCATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...

WEDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS FCST AREA AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO STEADILY DROP BEHIND IT. BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW WELL TO
THE SOUTH...AND INITIAL MAIN WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SHIFTING WEST
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FCST AREA. RAINFALL
TOTALS AS OF 4AM HAVE BEEN A HALF IN TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH ACROSS
NW NC...OTHERWISE LESS THAN THIS. BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE MOVING
OUT THIS MORNING...RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE DAY TO VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BUT LIKELY NOT END
COMPLETELY GIVEN A SOUTHERLY 850MB JET CONTINUING MOST OF THE DAY.
RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN PRECIP
PRODUCTION LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING
NORTH...UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. AREA RADAR MOSAIC SUGGESTS THIS
TREND WILL OCCUR BUT AGAIN GIVEN THE MOIST FLOW OVER THE WEDGE AND
SOME DEGREE OF UPSLOPE ALONG BLUE RIDGE...DO NOT EXPECT RAIN TO
COMPLETELY END FOR ANY OF THE DAY...BUT IT MAY BE VERY LIGHT. THUS
CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS ALL DAY BUT WITH LOWERING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND SOME SHIFT TOWARD NORTHERN PART OF AREA AS DAY GOES
ON. AS WEDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY HAVE DEPICTED
TEMPS STEADY OR EVEN CONTINUING TO DROP IN SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...AND MAYBE SOME SLIGHT RISES AGAIN
LATE...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHWEST FRINGES. FOR THE MOST PART...HIGHS
WILL BE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
MOST GUIDANCE FOR THE DAY.

BY THIS EVENING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND IS LIKELY
TO SPREAD ANOTHER AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTION OF AREA...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER WAVE SLIDING UP THE WEST
SIDE OF APPALACHIANS AS 850 FLOW TURNS BACK TO SOUTHWEST. THIS IN
ADVANCE OF DEEPENING AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. AT
THIS POINT DO NOT THINK THIS PRECIP WILL BE QUITE AS MUCH AS WHAT
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...AND MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING INTO AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN
AS MUCH RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM ADDITIONAL
RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...

WET SCENARIO IS SET TO PLAY OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DEEP MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN SURGES AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW...BUT THE MAIN PERIOD TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE AS A VIGOROUS UPPER CLOSED LOW
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GENERATES A SERIES OF WAVES ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES WHILE ALSO SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN...LEADING
TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR SO ESPECIALLY
FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO VIRGINIA ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL
IN RELATION TO WHERE HEAVY RAIN WILL HAVE FALLEN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES UNTIL IT
BECOMES MORE CLEAR EXACTLY WHAT AREAS WILL BE RECEIVING SUCCESSIVE
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY
CANDIDATES FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD IN THE HWO.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH FAIR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH A GOOD SURGE OF WARM AIR AS THE WEDGE
ERODES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
REACH THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRINGS READINGS TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY...

LINGERING UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A LARGE DOME
OF MORE PACIFIC NATURE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO
LATE WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH AND BECOMING WEDGED DOWN THE COAST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ALSO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 5H UPPER LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
UNDERNEATH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. THIS AGAIN COULD
INTERACT MORE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE LEFTOVER COASTAL
BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT THIS STILL APPEARS LESS LIKELY NOW PER LATEST DRIER
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST GFS/CMC THAT KEEPS PRECIP SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE WILL BE GOING DRY FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY AND GIVEN MOST COLD AIR
LOCKED TO THE NORTH EXPECTING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL HIGHS
WITH ONLY SOME LOWS BELOW FREEZING UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EST MONDAY...

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...ALONG WITH MOISTURE LIFTING
OVERTOP OF THIS LAYER AND PRODUCING RAIN...IS RESULTING IN IFR
CEILINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING IN LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
EXPECTING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH VALID TAF PERIOD OTHER
THAN RAIN MAY TAPER OFF AT TIMES LATER TODAY AND SOME CEILINGS
COULD LIFT TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY AT KROA. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
5 MILES DURING THE DAY...BUT MAY BRIEFLY DROP EARLY THIS MORNING
TO 3-4 MILES IN THE MOUNTAINS...BEFORE LIKELY LOWERING TO 1-3
MILES BY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IFR TO LIFR
OVERNIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE OF MORE STREADY RAIN WILL MOVE IN
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR CALM.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 12Z
TUES MORNING...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL BRIEFER PERIODS
OF MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE MOVING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OVER THE COOL
WEDGE WILL BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
ATTENDANT MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO THE REGION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TEMPORARILY TUES NIGHT AS THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH BEFORE A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SOME RELATIVELY BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL
FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN NW FLOW...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR IN UPSLOPE
AREAS AT KBLF AND KLWB MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURS MORNING BEHIND
FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...

A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
LASTING INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS A WEDGE OF
COOL AIR ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. RAINFALL THROUGH 4AM MONDAY HAS
BEEN CLOSE TO AN INCH ACROS PORTIONS OF WAUTAGA COUNTY NC...AND
OTHERWISE A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF MOISTURE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY COULD TOTAL
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME OF THESE AREAS BUT RATES WILL
GENERALLY RELATIVELY LIGHT. HOWEVER...HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE THEN
EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS PRECIPITATION COULD BE MUCH HIGHER AND
FALL ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...WITH ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF WEDNESDAY. RUNOFF FROM THIS
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE EARLIER RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS
WEST. SOME RIVER FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE PROLONGED
NATURE OF THE RUNOFF AND FINAL TOTALS THAT COULD APPROACH 3 TO 4
INCHES IN SPOTS. THUS A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AT LEAST SOME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS THROUGH TONIGHT AND FCST TRENDS
FOR WHAT IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL RAINFALL TUES NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/RCS/SK
HYDROLOGY...JH/SK



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 431 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH LATE ON TUESDAY. WAVES
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIFT OVER THIS WEDGE RESULTING IN
CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A FINAL ROUND OF RAIN BEFORE FINALLY
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND IT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...

WEDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS FCST AREA AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO STEADILY DROP BEHIND IT. BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW WELL TO
THE SOUTH...AND INITIAL MAIN WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SHIFTING WEST
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FCST AREA. RAINFALL
TOTALS AS OF 4AM HAVE BEEN A HALF IN TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH ACROSS
NW NC...OTHERWISE LESS THAN THIS. BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE MOVING
OUT THIS MORNING...RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE DAY TO VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BUT LIKELY NOT END
COMPLETELY GIVEN A SOUTHERLY 850MB JET CONTINUING MOST OF THE DAY.
RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN PRECIP
PRODUCTION LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING
NORTH...UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. AREA RADAR MOSAIC SUGGESTS THIS
TREND WILL OCCUR BUT AGAIN GIVEN THE MOIST FLOW OVER THE WEDGE AND
SOME DEGREE OF UPSLOPE ALONG BLUE RIDGE...DO NOT EXPECT RAIN TO
COMPLETELY END FOR ANY OF THE DAY...BUT IT MAY BE VERY LIGHT. THUS
CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS ALL DAY BUT WITH LOWERING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND SOME SHIFT TOWARD NORTHERN PART OF AREA AS DAY GOES
ON. AS WEDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY HAVE DEPICTED
TEMPS STEADY OR EVEN CONTINUING TO DROP IN SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...AND MAYBE SOME SLIGHT RISES AGAIN
LATE...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHWEST FRINGES. FOR THE MOST PART...HIGHS
WILL BE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
MOST GUIDANCE FOR THE DAY.

BY THIS EVENING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND IS LIKELY
TO SPREAD ANOTHER AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTION OF AREA...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER WAVE SLIDING UP THE WEST
SIDE OF APPALACHIANS AS 850 FLOW TURNS BACK TO SOUTHWEST. THIS IN
ADVANCE OF DEEPENING AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. AT
THIS POINT DO NOT THINK THIS PRECIP WILL BE QUITE AS MUCH AS WHAT
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...AND MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING INTO AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN
AS MUCH RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM ADDITIONAL
RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...

WET SCENARIO IS SET TO PLAY OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DEEP MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN SURGES AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW...BUT THE MAIN PERIOD TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE AS A VIGOROUS UPPER CLOSED LOW
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GENERATES A SERIES OF WAVES ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES WHILE ALSO SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN...LEADING
TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR SO ESPECIALLY
FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO VIRGINIA ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL
IN RELATION TO WHERE HEAVY RAIN WILL HAVE FALLEN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES UNTIL IT
BECOMES MORE CLEAR EXACTLY WHAT AREAS WILL BE RECEIVING SUCCESSIVE
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY
CANDIDATES FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD IN THE HWO.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH FAIR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH A GOOD SURGE OF WARM AIR AS THE WEDGE
ERODES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
REACH THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRINGS READINGS TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY...

LINGERING UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A LARGE DOME
OF MORE PACIFIC NATURE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO
LATE WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH AND BECOMING WEDGED DOWN THE COAST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ALSO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 5H UPPER LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
UNDERNEATH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. THIS AGAIN COULD
INTERACT MORE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE LEFTOVER COASTAL
BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT THIS STILL APPEARS LESS LIKELY NOW PER LATEST DRIER
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST GFS/CMC THAT KEEPS PRECIP SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE WILL BE GOING DRY FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY AND GIVEN MOST COLD AIR
LOCKED TO THE NORTH EXPECTING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL HIGHS
WITH ONLY SOME LOWS BELOW FREEZING UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST SUNDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THIS EVENING AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FROM NEW
ENGLAND. RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE WEST...RIDING ALONG THE FRONT.
RAIN...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE...WILL FALL INTO THE COOL
LAYER OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINTAINING IFR
CEILINGS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THESE
CLOUDS MAY INTERSECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VISIBILITIES IN OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 2SM TO 6SM THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN PASS OVER/AWAY FROM AIRPORTS.

IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE NORM THROUGH THE END OF THE
30/06Z TAF PERIOD. RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A BREAK DEVELOPS BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH...MAY SEE
CEILINGS IMPROVE TO LOW END MVFR WHERE RAINFALL DIMINISHES FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...AS THE DRIER AIR FLOWING IN WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE CAUSES CEILINGS TO LIFT BY A FEW HUNDRED FEET.
OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF THESE IMPROVEMENTS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN...AS WELL AS
A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST
REGION.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE MOVING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OVER THE COOL
WEDGE WILL BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
ATTENDANT MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO THE REGION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WILL CLEAR THE WEDGE OUT OF
THE AREA WITH IMPROVING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BY LATER IN THE DAY...
BUT FIRST COULD BRING SOME BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN. FOLLOWING THIS
FRONT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...

A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
LASTING INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS A WEDGE OF
COOL AIR ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. RAINFALL THROUGH 4AM MONDAY HAS
BEEN CLOSE TO AN INCH ACROS PORTIONS OF WAUTAGA COUNTY NC...AND
OTHERWISE A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF MOISTURE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY COULD TOTAL
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME OF THESE AREAS BUT RATES WILL
GENERALLY RELATIVELY LIGHT. HOWEVER...HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE THEN
EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS PRECIPITATION COULD BE MUCH HIGHER AND
FALL ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...WITH ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF WEDNESDAY. RUNOFF FROM THIS
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE EARLIER RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS
WEST. SOME RIVER FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE PROLONGED
NATURE OF THE RUNOFF AND FINAL TOTALS THAT COULD APPROACH 3 TO 4
INCHES IN SPOTS. THUS A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AT LEAST SOME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS THROUGH TONIGHT AND FCST TRENDS
FOR WHAT IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL RAINFALL TUES NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/RCS
HYDROLOGY...JH/SK




FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE



 .SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

ONCE THE SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDS TOMORROW...QUIET AND
MILD EARLY-WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM WL REMAIN SPLIT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
BEYOND...WITH A DOMINANT NRN STREAM ACRS CANADA...AND A WEAKER SRN
STREAM ACROS THE SRN CONUS. ONCE THE GRADUALLY WEAKENING REMNANTS
OF SRN STREAM UPR TROF SHIFT OFF TO THE E LATE TOMORROW...THE
FCST AREA WL PRETTY MUCH REMAIN BETWEEN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE
FLOW. THAT FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT AND BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAVE SHIFTED NORTH INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA.  MORE WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME
DRIZZLE ALSO MIXED IN AS WELL...MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA.  SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE
MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 09Z.  WRAP AROUND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LOW AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
TROUBLE REMAINING SATURATED BELOW 700MB...WHICH WOULD INDICATE MORE
OF A SPOTTY/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER THREAT.  OBS ARE ALSO SHOWING
UNKNOWN PRECIP IN SPOTS OVER IOWA...WHICH COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SO WILL INCLUDE BOTH LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OF EITHER.  A FEW
SPOTS COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF SNOW.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
WEST TO NEAR 30 BY THE LAKE.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THU.  THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT WITH THE UPPER LOW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL MAINTAIN BROKEN CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY.  PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD TEMPS UNDER
THE UPPER LOW CALLS FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

ANY LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE N SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING...
WITH CLDS PROBABLY LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
DECREASING. TEMPERATURES WL REMAIN ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BASED TEMPS ON A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS...TWEAKED TOWARD THOSE PRODUCTS THAT HAVE PERFORMED WELL
LATELY.

NO SIG CHGS TO THE EXTENDED FCST GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD-BASED
BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH BY MIDDAY.  CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO MVFR OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE
AREAS...AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL WI TOO...BUT THINK THAT AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL KNOCK CIGS/VSBYS DOWN
AT TIMES.  CIGS/VSBYS TO FALL AGAIN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER
LOW TONIGHT.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH...BUT
COULD DROP VSBYS TO IFR BRIEFLY.  BETTER CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING
WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI RATHER THAN FARTHER
EAST.  THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE OUT WED AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS START TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MPC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 307 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

STILL QUITE THE CHALLENGING FORECAST HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM A PRECIPITATION TYPE STANDPOINT...WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY WILL PLAY INTO JUST HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS IN ANY GIVEN
AREA. AS WELL DISCUSSED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE BEST RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN/FAR NORTHERN
CWA WHILE OTHER SPOTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE DEAL WITH AN
ENCROACHING WARM NOSE. THAT FEATURE IS PLAINLY EVIDENT ON THE 12Z
QUAD CITIES RAOB...WITH A NOSE OF ABOUT +4C CENTERED ON 800MB. AS IS
USUAL IN THESE DEVELOPING NEGATIVE TILT/TROWAL FEATURE SETUPS...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO UNDERPLAY THE WARM NOSE...WITH EVEN THE MOST
RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP FAILING TO CAPTURE THE TRUE DEGREE OF THAT
FEATURE. WE`RE ONLY TALKING 1-2C OF DIFFERENCE...BUT THAT MAKES A
HUGE DIFFERENCE WHEN IT COMES TO PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.

SO...WHAT`S MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN? APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
SHARP UPTICK IN MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASCENT
WILL SWING ANOTHER BAND OR TWO OF PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...INCREASINGLY CHASED NORTHWARD BY
THE APPROACH OF A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. AS EXPECTED THE
PAST FEW DAYS...SUSPECT THIS PRECIP WILL LARGELY FALL AS A COLD RAIN
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SOME SLEET
AT TIMES WITH ENOUGH OF A COLD DOME AROUND -2C BELOW 850MB BUT WITH
SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MITIGATING ANY BIG IMPACTS. FARTHER
NORTH...SAY ROUGHLY NORTH AND WEST OF A NEILLSVILLE WI TO WINONA MN
TO DODGE CENTER IA LINE...LOOKING FOR MORE OF A MESSY MIX...WITH MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGING FROM ABOUT 1.5C TO AS LOW AS -1C...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR WEST. SOME CONVECTIVE
COMPONENT TO THE PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO THE
SITUATION WITH HINTS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES CROSSING THE AREA FOR A
TIME ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT. ALL TOLD...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SLOPPY WET SNOW TO FALL WHERE ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A NARROW DGZ AND QUITE "WARM"
THERMAL PROFILE.

STILL HAVE TO WONDER IF THERE COULD BE A NARROW WINDOW ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR QUICKLY WRAPS
BACK IN TO GIVEN A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW TO AREAS FARTHER EAST.
HOWEVER...WE SHOULD TREND QUICKLY TOWARD MAYBE A LITTLE DRIZZLE OR
EVEN NO PRECIP AT ALL WITHIN THE DRY SLOT WITH A LACK OF ANY ICE IN
THE CLOUD BUT SATURATION HANGING AROUND UP TO 700MB BEFORE CRASHING
BELOW 850MB OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. THEN AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP IN ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE
CLOSED LOW DRIFTS OVERHEAD...WE SHOULD SEE A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
FILTER BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH REALLY WONDER IF NORTHERN
AREAS SEE NOTHING MUCH AT ALL THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN HOW WRAPPED UP
THE SYSTEM IS WITH THE DRY SLOW WRAPPING NORTH ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR. A FEW BATCHES OF LIGHT LINGERING SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOULD
WORK BACK THROUGH THE REGION RIGHT ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PROBABLY EVEN WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH MORE
CLOUD COVER STICKING AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DEPARTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

A WELL-DESERVED BREAK FOR US FORECASTERS INTO LATE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DOWNRIGHT AWESOME WEATHER FOR EARLY DECEMBER
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
STEADFAST AGREEMENT WITH A RETURN TO BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE
PLAINS/MID CONUS THROUGH LATE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. THAT FEATURE
MAY MAKE A RUN AT OUR AREA SOMETIME LATER IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH A NOTABLE LACK OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS THE GULF EFFECTIVELY REMAINS CLOSED. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO VERY SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE ENTIRE
REGION RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SETTING UP BROADENING RETURN
FLOW TOWARD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

GIVEN THE PATTERN SETUP...HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING ANY REASON TO
HAVE ANY CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST...WITH JUST SOME FANTASTIC LATE
FALL WEATHER AS DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY REBOUND THROUGH
THE 30S AND LIKELY INTO THE 40S FOR SNOW-FREE AREAS BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
INITIALLY BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WHERE SNOW COVER RESIDES...BUT
SHOULD OTHERWISE HOLD WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. ABOUT THE ONLY POSSIBLE "FLY IN THE
OINTMENT" WOULD BE ANY PESKY FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BY
THE WEEKEND AS WE MELT SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS...BUT OBVIOUSLY
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS VERY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINTRY MIX FROM THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIX TO MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW OR SLEET SNOW AT KRST AT THE ONSET BY
20Z AND MOSTLY RAIN AT KLSE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET.
THE MIX IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING AT KRST WITH
SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE EVENING. MAINLY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT KLSE WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW AND SLEET MIXED
IN AT TIMES. BY 09Z...WEATHER MODELS ARE SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION
COMING TO AN END OR TAPERING OFF TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE....THEN
BECOMING MAINLY DRY AFTER 12Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CIRCULATE BACK INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON MAINLY IFR/OCNL LIFR CONDITIONS AT KRST WHILE
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS AT KLSE DETERIORATE INTO IFR AFTER 03Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ017-029-032>034.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     IAZ008-009-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...DAS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 523 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP AND SNOW/
SLEET/ICE AMOUNTS TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. PRESSURES WERE FALLING ACROSS THE REGION AND CENTRAL PLAINS
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE EAST SIDE AND OUT OF THE
ROCKIES TROUGH. A LEAD WAVE AND INCREASING LOWER LEVEL THERMO-
DYNAMIC FORCING PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF MAINLY RAIN WITH A WINTRY
MIX ON THE NORTH END...LIFTING NORTH THRU EASTERN IA...SOUTHEAST MN
AND INTO WESTERN WI. PER OBS...2M TEMPS...TEMPS ALOFT AND GROUND
TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F...CREATING POTENTIAL FOR
THE MIXED PRECIP AND ICING ON COLD ROAD SURFACES ANYWHERE IN THE FCST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.

NO MAJOR ISSUES NOTED WITH 30.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO OFFER A TIGHTENING CONSENSUS AS THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL
LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN NEB BY 00Z TUE...THEN TO FAR NORTHWEST IA BY
12Z TUE. TREND FAVORS MORE WESTERLY OF EARLIER SOLUTIONS WITH THE
500MB LOW POSITION...AND SFC LOW POSITION AT 12Z TUE...WITH THE FCST
AREA NOW WELL ON THE WARM-SECTOR SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN THE TIGHTER MODEL CONSENSUS...FCST
CONFIDENCE WOULD GENERALLY BE GOOD. HOWEVER...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
WITH THE SFC-800MB THERMAL PROFILES...WITH VALUES STRADDLING 0C...
AND THEIR IMPACTS ON PRECIP TYPE LEAVES FCST CONFIDENCE AT LEAST ON
PRECIP TYPES IN THE AVERAGE RANGE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SOME OF THE BIGGER PRECIP TYPE IMPACTS MAY BE
THRU MID MORNING THIS MORNING...WITH ROAD TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 32F.
THIS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER AIR TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOWING A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE 925-
800MB LAYER...AGAIN ABOUT 1C EITHER SIDE OF 0C. THUS THE HEADACHE
WITH PRECIP TYPES AND ICING THREAT THIS MORNING. ALREADY MOVED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO START AT 06Z ACROSS THE WEST END OF THE
FCST AREA. WITH REPORTS OF ICING OF ROADS NORTH OF KDBQ...SHORT TERM
FORECASTER HAS EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA THRU 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLD
ROADS AND ADDITIONAL ICING POTENTIAL AS THE BAND OF MIXED PRECIP
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

THE LEAD WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WEAKENS/LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE AIDING IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN WI.
SIGNAL AMONG HI-RES/MESO-SCALE MODELS THAT MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
WOULD GET A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP THRU THE MID MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING THIS
APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE AND WILL ADJUST PRECIP CHANCES DOWNWARD
THRU MUCH OF THE MID-DAY PERIOD. AS THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY
COALESCES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH THIS MORNING...
THEN ROTATES AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONGEST OF THE
500-300MB PV ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONGER OF THE 925-700MB WARM
ADVECTION/LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC LIFT. TIGHTENING MODEL
SIGNAL THAT A BROAD BAND OF PRECIP TO ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO/ACROSS
THE FCST AREA FROM ROUGHLY 30.21Z TO 01.09Z. SPREAD NEARLY 100
PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS PERIOD.
WITH THE TREND TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY SFC THRU 500MB LOW
TRACK...AREA ENDS UP MORE DEEPLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
925-850MB PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS AT/ABOVE 0C INTRUDING
FURTHER AND FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/ EVENING. THIS WITH SFC TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S. WITH SFC OBS ALREADY INDICATING MIXED PRECIP AS
DODGE CENTER MN...APPEARS BULK OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SLEET MIX...WITH ANY SNOW LIMITED TO THE
FAR WEST OR FAR NORTH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LEAVE HEADLINES
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FOR A THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP... BUT DID LOWER
MOST SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH ENDS OF THE FCST AREA
THESE PERIODS. FEAR MAY NOT HAVE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS ENOUGH BUT
TIME WILL TELL. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVE/COLUMN STARTS TO
COOL TO SUPPORT MORE SNOW LATER TONIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE IS
PUSHED NORTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND PRECIP MAY BE MORE DZ/FZDZ
VS. SNOW WITH THE SHORTER MOISTURE COLUMN AND LACK OF ICE IN THE
CLOUD LAYER. TRIED TO LEAVE PRECIP AS THE WINTRY MIX FOR MUCH OF
THE THRU THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

FOR TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WINTRY MIX YET TUESDAY...THEN
MAINLY SNOW CHANCES TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

30.00Z MODELS SHOWING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
TRACKS EAST TUE/TUE NIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME SPEED
DIFFERENCES ON THIS AT 12Z WED...WITH ECMWF SLOWER AND NAM/GFS
FASTER. TREND DOES FAVOR SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH
THE EASTWARD MOVING MID LEVEL LOW TUE/TUE NIGHT. SIGNAL REMAINS
GOOD FOR RISING HGTS/SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW/TROUGH WED/WED NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD THIS PERIOD.

WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WED...PRECIP
TYPE REMAINS A PROBLEM...EVEN AS THE COLUMN COOLS. WEAKER FORCING/
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUE...WITH 925-850MB COLD ADVECTION AND THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST/NORTH OF THE AREA. PRECIP
TUE...WHATEVER TYPE...LOOKING TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WITH
SHALLOWER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AT LEAST TUE MORNING AND
POTENTIAL FOR NO ICE IN THE CLOUDS...LEFT PRECIP AS A WINTRY MIX
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUE MORNING. WITH CONTINUED COOLING AS THE
MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA...TOP OF THE MOISTURE COLUMN
LOOKS TO INTERSECT SOME -10C TO -15C AIR AT THE TOP TUE
AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP TRENDING TOWARD MORE SNOW BY LATER TUE
AFTERNOON/TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY TUE NIGHT THE 850-500MB LOW IS
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND FORCING/LIFT IS BECOMING RATHER
LIMITED. CARRIED HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH END OF
THE FCST AREA TUE MORNING...WITH SOME WEAK DEFORMATION BAND LIFT
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA TUE AFTERNOON. 30 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES SOUTHEAST TO 60-70
PERCENT NORTHWEST TUE AFTERNOON REASONABLE. MAINLY 30-40 PERCENT
-SN CHANCES TUE NIGHT AS THE 850-500MB LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA
REASONABLE AS WELL. WITH THE COLD 850-500MB AIRMASS SLIDING ACROSS
THE AREA WED MORNING AND LINGERING DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW...ADDED
SOME FLURRIES MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER. AS SYSTEM DEPARTS
AND HGTS START TO RISE...TREND IS FOR CLOUDS TO DECREASE FOR WED
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS SFC-500MB RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU WED NIGHT.

FOR THU THRU SUN...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
DECEMBER.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LONGWAVE RIDGING TO
BUILD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM THU INTO SAT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGHING TO DIG INTO THE ROCKIES. REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS
FOR A NORTHERN-SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT OF THE WESTERN NOAM TROUGHING
LATE SAT INTO SUN..WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION SLOWING AND THE
NORTHERN STREAM PORTION REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CAN. THIS RIDGING/SPLITTING PATTERN LEAVES THE UPPER MIDWEST
GENERALLY HIGH AND DRY IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD WITH FCST CONFIDENCE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR THU INTO SAT. THIS FLOW IS
RATHER DRY WITH A STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC-700MB FLOW.
THU THRU SAT SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY AND SEASONABLE MILD PERIOD...
WITH HIGHS TRENDING AT LEAST 5F TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH SNOW COVER WE END UP WITH FROM TODAY THRU TUE NIGHT...
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS BY FRI/SAT MAY BE EVEN WARMER AS THE
NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS 850MB TEMPS 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FRI/SAT. TIME WILL TELL...BUT HIGHS APPROACHING 50F IN
THE MS/WI RIVER VALLEYS FRI/SAT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. STAYED WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR NOW AS SPENT MOST OF THE TIME FOCUSING ON THE
SHORT TERM. SOME COOLING SAT NIGHT/SUN AS THE PASSING NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRAGS A WEAK...AND DRY...COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. EVEN SO...TEMPS SUNDAY LOOKING TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY
NORTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. THE 30.10Z HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PRECIPITATION BAND AND INDICATES IT SHOULD
MOVE PAST BOTH TAF SITES BY 30.14Z OR 30.15Z AT THE LATEST.
CORRELATION COEFFICIENT DATA FROM THE KARX RADAR SUGGESTS THAT
MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MIX WITH
RAIN...SNOW...SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN ALL POSSIBLE BEFORE IT
ENDS. DOWNSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA SHOW SITES ARE
DEVELOPING FOG BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION BAND AND WILL INDICATE
THIS AT KRST WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR CEILINGS. THE NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO MOVE BACK IN DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE AFTERNOON. KLSE IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN
WITH VFR CONDITIONS COMING DOWN TO MVFR DURING THE EVENING. KRST
SHOULD AGAIN HAVE A MIX AND WILL SHOW RAIN/SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. THE 30.06Z NAM INDICATES ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT KRST AND SNOW MIXING
WITH THE RAIN AT KLSE. HOW LONG THIS LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IS
THEN IN QUESTION AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THE BEST
PRECIPITATION BAND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT COMES IN
FROM THE SOUTH. THERE COULD ALSO BE A LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD AS
THIS OCCURS FOR A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ032>034.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ041>044-053>055-061.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ017-029.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     MNZ079-086>088-094-095.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     IAZ008-009-018-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ010-
     011-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 332 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE SECOND SNOW OF THE SEASON IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. WHILE MUCH
LESS IN TOTAL AMOUNT THAN THE NOVEMBER 20-21 EVENT...THE TIMING IS
PROBLEMATIC. HAVE REFINED HOURLY FORECASTS TO GIVE DETAIL OF
EXPECTED MODERATE/HEAVIER SNOWFALL TIMING AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
SHOW THEIR HAND...THOUGH THIS IS STILL LARGELY IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS ON
GRASS SURFACES INTO THE 1 TO 2 INCH CATEGORY FOR MANY WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS PROBABLE GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE MODEST RATES. CONTINUE WITH MESSAGING IN THE SPS AND
GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS TOWARD HIGHEST IMPACTS THROUGH 10 AM AND THUS
IMPACTING COMMUTERS.

THE BROAD BUT STRONG UPPER LOW IS GYRATING OVER THE
WI/MN/IA/NORTHERN IL REGION THIS MORNING. A NOTEWORTHY EMBEDDED
VORTICITY CENTER IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MO THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AROUND DAYBREAK. ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS IS A FAVORED AREA FOR FOCUSED MORE INTENSE
ASCENT WHICH WILL OVERRIDE THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
SNOW...SPREADING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS OF 315 AM. THIS
MORE INTENSE SYNOPTIC LIFT LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER TO
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHICH IS TIGHTENING AND ADDING
RESPONSIVE MESOSCALE LIFT...ESPECIALLY WITH CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY ABOVE THAT PER THE RAP MODEL. ALL THIS POINTS TOWARD
AN AREA/BAND OF SNOW TO INTENSIFY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THROUGH 730 AM
OR SO. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...SHIFTING
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BUT LIKELY WEAKENING SOME DURING THE 7 TO
10 AM TIME OR SO. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST INDIANA
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN OR A MIX AT ONSET...BUT SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY
TO SNOW AS DIABATIC COOLING OCCURS.

WEBCAM IMAGERY AND A FEW EARLY MORNING REPORTS ARE INDICATING QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ON GRASS. WHILE PAVEMENT HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY FREE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THUS FAR...THE HEAVIER RATES
WILL COMPENSATE FOR THAT WITH LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION IN PLACES. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY IN
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO WHERE OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATE AIR
TEMPERATURES OF 37-38 DEGREES AS OF 315 AM.

BEHIND THIS SNOW AREA...SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE COLD POCKET ALOFT
AND OTHER EMBEDDED BUT WEAKER VORTICITY MAXIMAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. COVERAGE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO UNDULATE
SOME...BUT HAVE BASICALLY KEPT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF THE DAY
FOR EASTWARD...THOUGH THE DEFINITE POPS AND HEAVIER WORDING IS IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TRY TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY MELT SOME OF THE SNOW THAT
FALLS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS CHALLENGING AS
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER YET THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL INEVITABLY KEEP SOME LARGE AREAS OF CLOUDS TOO. FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR...MID 20S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.
LINGERING CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD ABATE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
329 AM CST

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES
TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND MILD...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
MILD AIR ON SATURDAY WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH LOWER TO MID 50S
AREAWIDE. WHILE NO GUIDANCE HAS THIS IN THEIR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
PREDICTIONS...CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT SUCH READINGS GIVEN THEIR
FORECAST 925MB TEMPERATURES AND DEGREE OF ANOMALIES.

THE 00Z GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD
NEAR OR INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING BUT
MUCH WEAKER/SMALLER UPPER LOW TO THE NEARBY SOUTHWEST. TOGETHER
THIS COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SATURDAY AND HAVE FAVORED THAT ROUTE.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* CIGS LOWERING TO IFR...POSSIBLY LIFR IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. CIGS IMPROVING
  MVFR BY LATE MORNING.

* SNOW WITH IFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY AND LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
  WEDNESDAY MORNING. 3/4SM VSBY OR POSSIBLY LOWER REMAIN A CONCERN.

* OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TODAY.

KMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z...

SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
MAIN CHICAGO TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS GIVE WAY TO IFR CIGS IN THE
SNOW...AND EVEN LIFR CIGS IN AREAS WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING FOR
A LONGER TIME. IFR VISIBILITIES...WHILE NOT ALL THE TIME...HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS...AND
GENERALLY AROUND 1 3/4SM TO 2SM...BUT OCCASIONALLY AS LOW AS 1SM.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH HAS LED TO SOME REINTENSIFICATION IN
SNOWFALL AND CORRESPONDING MORE IMPRESSIVE SIGNATUES OF HEAVIER
PRECIP RATES THAT COULD LEAD TO VISBYS BELOW 1SM. HAVE HELD TO
3/4SM VSBY IN THE TEMPO FOR ORD/DPA AS THESE ARE THE AREAS THAT
STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS. MDW MAY HAVE A HARDER TIME WITH
INITIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT INCREASED RATES SHOULD GET
THERE TOO BUT AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE HELD A 1SM IN THE TEMPO AS THAT
IS BEEN THE WORST REPORTED FROM ASOS/AWOS SITES...BUT THE
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR LOWER. DONT THINK THESE VERY LOW
VSBYS WILL HOLD FOR SUPER LONG AS THE BANDS ARE COMING IN WAVES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 06Z..

STARING TO SEE INDICATIONS THAT SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
INTENSIFY...WITH KRFD OBSERVING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW AND QUICKLY
DROPPING FROM 9SM TO 1 1/4SM VSBY. WE STILL HAVE A FEW HOURS FOR
THE BAND TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING TOGETHER
FOR A QUICK AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BAND FIRST OVER THE WESTERN
BURBS AROUND 8Z...THAN INTO ORD/MDW AFTER 9Z-10Z. THERE IS A
POTENT VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MASSIVE UPPER TROUGH THAT
WILL SOON SHIFT NE AND APPROACH THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE COMING HOURS AS
WELL. HAVE SEE 1 1/4 - 1 1/2SM VSBY GENERALLY OBSERVED IN THE
MODERATE SNOW AND HAVE CARRIED THIS AS THE PREVAILING VSBY. WITH
THE EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION...BELIEVE 3/4SM VSBY SHOULD BE
EASILY ATTAINED AND TRIED TO HIT THAT IN THE MOST FAVORED TIME
FRAME. CERTAINLY IF THE INTENSIFICATION OCCURS LOWER VSBY IS
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL TRY TO ADD THOSE DETAILS AS THE BAND SHIFTS
WITH THE 9Z UPDATE.

THE BAND SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AFTER ABOUT A 3 HOUR WINDOW KEEPING
SOME IFR VSBYS AROUND THAN LIKELY A SHORT BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT TO
MVFR THIS MORNING AND LINGER THERE THIS AFTERNOON OR LIFT TO VFR
WITH TEMPO MVFR IN SHOWERS. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR/IFR VSBY BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM IN GENERAL CIG TRENDS AND IN TIMING COINCIDENT WITH THE
  SNOW BAND.

* HIGH IN SNOW THIS MORNING. MEDIUM IN PREVAILING CIG/VIS TRENDS
  WITH THE SNOW BAND...AND HIGH WITH AT LEAST 1SM VSBY IN THE SNOW
  BAND AND POSSIBLY LOWER. MEDIUM IN EXACT TIMING/DURATION OF
  LOWEST CIG/VIS.

* HIGH IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER THE SNOW BAND TODAY BUT LOW ON
  TERMINAL IMPACTS.

KMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
108 AM CST

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
SPREADING ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SECONDARY LOW CENTER OVER THE LAKE...MODEST PRESSURE RISES AS
THE LOW DEPARTS COULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS EAST THROUGH HUDSON BAY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL EXPAND OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY. THIS
PATTERN SUGGESTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHTER TO MODEST SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR DECEMBER
AFTER TODAYS COLD FRONT.

KMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 1122 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH AN 850
MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN...THROUGH INDIANA...AND INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS. A TROF RAN FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW WRAP AROUND CLOUDS FROM THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS IOWA WITH SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LITTLE
IF ANY CLOUDS RAN FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

18Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NEAR KRWF. THE MAIN
FRONT RAN EAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THEN SOUTH INTO
OHIO AND THEN MISSISSIPPI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND HIGHER
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

RADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT
WEST OF A FREEPORT TO OTTUMWA LINE. BASED ON RAP TRENDS...THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS GENERALLY WEST OF A KRFD TO KIRK LINE. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE ON THE GRASS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES
ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO THE SNOW SHOULD MELT ON THE ROADS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE NEW SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
WISCONSIN. THE BETTER CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF I-
80 AND ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE A DUSTING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE NOCTURNAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY IN
THE LATE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD AGAIN BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.

NEW DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE EAST OF I-39. THE QUESTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS WILL THERE BE ANY NEW ACCUMULATION. AT BEST THERE MAY
BE A DUSTING ON THE GRASS OR ELEVATED SURFACES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REACH NEAR 50 THIS WEEKEND.

LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL TURN TO SW FLOW LATE DURING THE WEEK.
MODERATION UNDER THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH THE SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY COULD BE AS HIGH AS 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE MID WEEK.

MID WEEKEND AN ADVANCING MID LEVEL WAVE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND FLOW.  HOWEVER...THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE LEADING TO LIMITED
FORECASTABILITY FOR ANY PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.  THIS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  REGARDLESS...MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND QUIET
WEATHER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REGION TO REMAIN UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW RESULTING IN LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS...MOSTLY BETWEEN 02/08Z AND 02/16Z. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 2 MILES OR LESS FOR SHORT PERIODS
OF TIME WITH BASES DOWN TO 1-2K AGL. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES TO BE
6 PLUS MILES WITH CEILING AOA 3K AGL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 308 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

FRESHENED UP THE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ENHANCED ECHOES
HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LENDS INFLUENCE. THE 00Z
MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF PREDICTED
TO FALL THROUGH 09Z...HOWEVER THERE HAVE BEEN POCKETS OF HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. GIVEN THESE
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR QUITE A
BIT OF THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. EXPECT AT LEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH 09Z...BEFORE
THE FORCING RELAXES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT
1108 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
NEW 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND RECENT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
HRRR CONTINUED TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT POPS...SO NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THESE ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE VA BORDER COUNTIES...BUT PRECIPITATION
LINGERS IN ITS VICINITY. ON ADDITIONAL SFC WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY AND THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST CWA. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY. BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS OPTED TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CWA DURING THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AS WELL AS SKY COVER. RECENT HRRR AND OTHER MODEL RUNS WERE
A TAD HIGHER WITH QPF ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL...SO QPF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST WAS INCREASE A TENTH OR SO. OTHERWISE...HOURLY
TRENDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS...BUT THIS
LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SETTLING OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING THE CWA BOTH ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES VARY WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION AS COOLER
AIR IS POURING IN ON WEST WINDS FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
WHILE WARMTH REMAINS IN THE FAR EAST. SPECIFICALLY...TEMPERATURES
VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS LIKEWISE VARY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE DRY BULB VALUES. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHILE THEY ARE
MORE WESTERLY TO THE WEST RUNNING AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 15 OR 20 MPH.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL TAKE A FAIRLY DEEP...AND COMPACT...LOW THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THIS LOWS ENERGY DOES TARGET THE LOWER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
AS IT MOVES BY LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE FAR
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA ALONG THAT STALLED FRONT. TO THE WEST
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE FOUND. THE DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ENDING ANY ACCUMULATING RAINS...THOUGH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN INTO THE MORNING. HOWEVER...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR QUITE A BIT OF THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. EAST THE SHOWERS WILL
LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES TO AT
LEAST NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE AIR WILL DRY OUT THROUGHOUT
THE STATE BY DAWN THURSDAY. COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A BIGGER SURGE THAT NIGHT FOR LOWS
BACK TO NEAR FREEZING BY DAWN THURSDAY.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. FROM THIS
MADE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO MOS BLEND FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE ON THE HIGH
SIDE BY A TAD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH LOW
PW/S AROUND 0.15 THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LARGE
DIURNAL RANGES EACH DAY WITH COLD MORNINGS AND MILD AFTERNOONS WITH
HIGHS LIKELY REACHING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE EACH DAY AND POSSIBLY
UNDER GUIDANCE AT NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME SOMETIME
ON MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA.
THOUGH...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE HERE...SO STUCK CLOSE TO CR
SUPERBLEND FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
MORE SUSTAINED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG A LINE FROM SJS TO JKL TO
SME THROUGH 09Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS WILL RAISE UP TO VFR THROUGH
AROUND NOON. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING IN LOWER CEILINGS FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KTS OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS DUSK.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM/KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 130 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

FRESHENED UP THE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ENHANCED ECHOES
HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LENDS INFLUENCE. THE 00Z
MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF PREDICTED
TO FALL THROUGH 09Z...HOWEVER THERE HAVE BEEN POCKETS OF HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. GIVEN THESE
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR QUITE A
BIT OF THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. EXPECT AT LEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH 09Z...BEFORE
THE FORCING RELAXES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT
1108 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
NEW 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND RECENT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
HRRR CONTINUED TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT POPS...SO NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THESE ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE VA BORDER COUNTIES...BUT PRECIPITATION
LINGERS IN ITS VICINITY. ON ADDITIONAL SFC WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY AND THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST CWA. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY. BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS OPTED TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CWA DURING THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AS WELL AS SKY COVER. RECENT HRRR AND OTHER MODEL RUNS WERE
A TAD HIGHER WITH QPF ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL...SO QPF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST WAS INCREASE A TENTH OR SO. OTHERWISE...HOURLY
TRENDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS...BUT THIS
LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SETTLING OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING THE CWA BOTH ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES VARY WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION AS COOLER
AIR IS POURING IN ON WEST WINDS FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
WHILE WARMTH REMAINS IN THE FAR EAST. SPECIFICALLY...TEMPERATURES
VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS LIKEWISE VARY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE DRY BULB VALUES. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHILE THEY ARE
MORE WESTERLY TO THE WEST RUNNING AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 15 OR 20 MPH.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL TAKE A FAIRLY DEEP...AND COMPACT...LOW THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THIS LOWS ENERGY DOES TARGET THE LOWER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
AS IT MOVES BY LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE FAR
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA ALONG THAT STALLED FRONT. TO THE WEST
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE FOUND. THE DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ENDING ANY ACCUMULATING RAINS...THOUGH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN INTO THE MORNING. HOWEVER...TO THEHAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR QUITE A BIT OF
THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.  EAST THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING A
POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. THE AIR WILL DRY OUT THROUGHOUT THE STATE BY DAWN
THURSDAY. COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A BIGGER SURGE THAT NIGHT FOR LOWS BACK TO NEAR
FREEZING BY DAWN THURSDAY.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. FROM THIS
MADE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO MOS BLEND FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE ON THE HIGH
SIDE BY A TAD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD AND REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH PW`S AROUND 0.15
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
EACH DAY WITH COLD MORNINGS AND MILD AFTERNOONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE EACH DAY AND POSSIBLY UNDER GUIDANCE
AT NIGHT.  NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME SOMETIME AROUND NEXT
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE PATTERN GOING INTO TUESDAY...NOT
WILLING TO BITE ON THIS SYSTEM YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
MORE SUSTAINED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG A LINE FROM SJS TO JKL TO
SME THROUGH 09Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS WILL RAISE UP TO VFR THROUGH
AROUND NOON. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING IN LOWER CEILINGS FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KTS OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS DUSK.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 1108 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
NEW 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND RECENT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
HRRR CONTINUED TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT POPS...SO NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THESE ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE VA BORDER COUNTIES...BUT PRECIPITATION
LINGERS IN ITS VICINITY. ON ADDITIONAL SFC WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY AND THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST CWA. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY. BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS OPTED TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CWA DURING THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AS WELL AS SKY COVER. RECENT HRRR AND OTHER MODEL RUNS WERE
A TAD HIGHER WITH QPF ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL...SO QPF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST WAS INCREASE A TENTH OR SO. OTHERWISE...HOURLY
TRENDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS...BUT THIS
LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SETTLING OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING THE CWA BOTH ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES VARY WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION AS COOLER
AIR IS POURING IN ON WEST WINDS FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
WHILE WARMTH REMAINS IN THE FAR EAST. SPECIFICALLY...TEMPERATURES
VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS LIKEWISE VARY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE DRY BULB VALUES. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHILE THEY ARE
MORE WESTERLY TO THE WEST RUNNING AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 15 OR 20 MPH.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL TAKE A FAIRLY DEEP...AND COMPACT...LOW THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THIS LOWS ENERGY DOES TARGET THE LOWER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
AS IT MOVES BY LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE FAR
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA ALONG THAT STALLED FRONT. TO THE WEST
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE FOUND. THE DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ENDING ANY ACCUMULATING RAINS...THOUGH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN INTO THE MORNING. HOWEVER...TO THE EAST THE SHOWERS WILL
LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES TO AT
LEAST NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE AIR WILL DRY OUT THROUGHOUT
THE STATE BY DAWN THURSDAY. COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A BIGGER SURGE THAT NIGHT FOR LOWS
BACK TO NEAR FREEZING BY DAWN THURSDAY.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. FROM THIS
MADE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO MOS BLEND FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE ON THE HIGH
SIDE BY A TAD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD AND REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH PW`S AROUND 0.15
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
EACH DAY WITH COLD MORNINGS AND MILD AFTERNOONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE EACH DAY AND POSSIBLY UNDER GUIDANCE
AT NIGHT.  NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME SOMETIME AROUND NEXT
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE PATTERN GOING INTO TUESDAY...NOT
WILLING TO BITE ON THIS SYSTEM YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION...MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ALONG WITH SOME FOG...DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS
FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 12 TO 15 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. CIGS WILL BE
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS IN SOME CASES FOR LOCATIONS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. THE CIGS AND VIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
VFR BETWEEN 13Z TO 20Z AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO
THE STATE. HOWEVER...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...
STRATOCU SHOULD APPROACH OR MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH SOME LOCATIONS RETURNING TO MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE WEST SOUTHWEST TO WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
AVERAGE 10KT OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 1152 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PERSISTENT
BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE CHANGING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY EWD ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A BROADENING SFC LOW EXPANDS EAST INTO
WISCONSIN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS AN AREA OF WEAK MID-
LEVEL F-GEN ACROSS NE MN AIDING IN THE 700-500MB LIFT WHICH HAS
BEEN THE PRIMARY AREA OF FORCING THAT HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE HAS THIS LIFTING
LAYER HANGING AROUND THE ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD
TONIGHT AS THE BAND PIVOTS AND ROTATES EWD. MAY SEE THE SRN EDGE
OF THIS BAND BRUSH THE TWIN PORTS THIS EVENING...AND TRIGGER A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO...WILL
KEEP SRN ST. LOUIS AND CARLTON COUNTY...INCLUDING DULUTH...IN THE
ADVISORY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. A LAYER OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH AND ALLOW
THE COLUMN TO LOSE ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT...BUT KEEP THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS SETUP WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NEAR-SFC TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. ROADS AND OTHER SURFACES WILL LIKELY BE WET OR SNOW
COVERED...WHICH WILL INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SO DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NW WI AND AREAS OF E-CENTRAL MN.

THE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT DZ/FZDZ WILL SWEEP EWD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WED MORNING AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW AND DRIZZLE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND OVER N-CENTRAL WI WED
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER IRON COUNTY IN WISCONSIN AS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SET
IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AND BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
WESTERN MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND THUS CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY THAT
MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FOR THE
SEASON...AVERAGING SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY GET NARROWER AND WEAKER ACROSS
KDLH...KHIB AND KBRD AS OF 0530Z...WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN
THE SNOW BAND WITH KDLH DIPPING INTO LIFR. SNOW HAS ENDED FOR
KINL...BUT CEILINGS REMAIN LOW WITH LIFR CIELINGS. KHYR HAS BEEN
VFR. THIS SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND
AND WILL ROTATE AND SLIDE EAST THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW...BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE SNOW BAND. CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 02Z. GUIDANCE SHOWING AN AREA OF
STRATUS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER 23Z...BUT
DO NOT HAVE VERY MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND HAVE LEFT OUT FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  35  20  36 /  80  30   0   0
INL  23  30  19  36 /  50   0   0   0
BRD  29  35  16  37 /  90  10   0   0
HYR  25  35  18  35 /  20  20   0   0
ASX  28  37  22  38 /  50  30  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-
     018>021-025-026-035-037.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...LE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

 328 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOWING DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AS
CEILINGS RISE AND CLOUDS CLEAR FROM THE NW. FURTHER SE...HOWEVER...SW
FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES TO WRING OUT AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN. SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS WELL AS MAUL
POCKETS MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN.

THE MAUL POCKETS ARE SHOWN WELL IN THE 00Z JAN SOUNDING AS WELL AS
GFS BUFR AND HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CAM DATA
INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE LEAVING JUST THE DIMINISHING SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA AT OR SHORTLY
AFTER NOON...FOLLOWED PRETTY RAPIDLY BY THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE THE DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT...PRESURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE AS SUCH TO PREVENT
WINDS FROM COMPLETELY CALMING. MINS IN THE 30S STILL LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD BET...BUT THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETUP FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE LOW TO MID 30S APPEAR PROBABLE...POSSIBLY SOME
UPPER 20S IN THE FAR NE AREAS./26/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTING JUST EAST OF OUR CWA BY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A >1030MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS PROVIDING A COOL DRY NORTH WIND OVER OUR CWA.
PWATS WILL BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY
BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY AS SITES TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RETURN FLOW OVER OUR
CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER OUR
CWA SATURDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME
HIGHS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MORNING LOWS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MODELS STILL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
NEXT CLOSED LOW THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CANADIAN IS THE SLOWEST AND FARTHEST
SOUTH WITH THE LOW SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THE EURO AND GFS ARE FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH THE EURO
BEING THE FARTHEST EAST OVER THE KANSAS/MISSOURI STATE LINE. MODELS
DIVERGE EVEN FURTHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE EURO BEING DRY
OVER OUR CWA TRACKING THE LOW NORTHEAST WHILE THE GFS IS WETTER FOR
OUR CWA TRACKING THE LOW EAST SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME
CONTINUITY WITH POPS FROM OUR PREVIOUS FCST WITH LOW POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. /22/


&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT RAIN AND FOG WILL RESULT IN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING OVER MEI AND HBG. ELSEWHERE...
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN THE RAIN ENDING AND
RISING CEILINGS WITH FLIGHT RULES BECOMING VFR BY 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO MEI AND HBG BY 19Z./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  35  56  33 /  23   5   3   5
MERIDIAN      58  34  56  30 /  37   6   4   6
VICKSBURG     59  36  55  33 /  15   4   2   5
HATTIESBURG   59  37  58  33 /  43   8   6   6
NATCHEZ       61  36  56  33 /  20   5   3   5
GREENVILLE    57  36  53  33 /   6   4   2   5
GREENWOOD     57  33  53  31 /  10   4   2   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/22/




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 1107 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

H5 UA ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER
FAR SERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE HAS MIGRATED FROM SERN WYOMING
TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS OF MIDDAY...WV
IMAGERY HAS THIS FEATURE ROUGHLY OVER NWRN IA. HT FALLS DOWNSTREAM
OF THIS FEATURE WERE MOST PRONOUNCED AT THE TWIN CITIES AND THE QUAD
CITIES WITH HT FALLS OF 220 AND 190 METERS RESPECTIVELY...SO THIS
FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS A BROAD SHIELD OF
ALTO STRATUS AND OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD ENHANCEMENT NOTED FROM ROUGHLY VALENTINE TO NEAR
BROKEN BOW. UNDERNEATH THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR FROM
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WAS OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT GIVEN THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS AREA TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST...UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES...RANGED FROM 27 AT AINSWORTH AND VALENTINE...TO 33 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

RADAR COVERAGE HAS DECREASED SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO BE CANCELLED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

ANOTHER SNOW BAND HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN SD. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. CHERRY COUNTY IS IN THE CLEAR AND HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FROM THE ADVISORY.

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST A FEW HOURS ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE
END TIMING OF THE SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO TEMPERATURES...MORE SPECIFICALLY HOW
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH A DENSE FRESH SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON...DRAGGING ONE LAST SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE HELPED TO FOCUS A
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS...FROM
VALENTINE SOUTH TOWARD NORTH PLATTE.  THE NAM MODEL...AND THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR DID A FINE JOB DEPICTING THIS ENHANCED SNOWBAND
BOTH IN TERMS OF INTENSITY AND LOCATION...THUS THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION.  BOTH THE NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOW
THE BAND ERODING IN A COUPLE HOURS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL WEAKER BAND
BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTH INTO CUSTER
COUNTY LATE AFTERNOON. REAL TIME OBSERVING STATIONS AND THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE WEAKENING TREND...YIELDING GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE SHORT TERM.

THE CURRENT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING...THOUGH
WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  WE WOULD
RATHER SEE HOW THE ADDITIONAL BAND PLAYS OUT BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL
CALL ON WHETHER TO CUT THE ADVISORY EARLY.  WHERE THE PRESENT HEAVY
BAND SET UP...WE COULD STILL SEE SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER
TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS AN HALF INCH PER HOUR...BUT AGAIN THAT BAND
IS SLOWLY FALLING APART.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE GOING TO BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND HOW LONG THE NORTHWEST WINDS STAY UP.  AT
THIS POINT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CLEARING A FEW HOURS BEFORE
DAWN...AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK...LOW TO MID TEENS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.  NOTE GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE
FORECASTING.  RISING HEIGHTS WILL ACCOMPANY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SNOWPACK.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MID 30S
OVER THE SNOW AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE TEMPERATURES AND THE THREAT FOR
FOG...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...EVEN
WITH EXPECTED MELTING ON WEDNESDAY...MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SHOULD REMAIN SNOW COVERED. WITH EXPECTED
SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FELT GUIDANCE
WAS WAY OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY THE MAV...AND UNDERCUT BOTH THE MAV
AND MET TEMPS FOR LOWS WEDS NIGHT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE LIGHT
WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS...WENT WITH LOWS EVEN COLDER IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME SINGLE DIGITS WERE INSERTED IN THE GRIDS.
FOR THURSDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT
MIXING. WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE LOWER 40S. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED TO MELT
OFF WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...I DID GO AHEAD AND
LIMIT LOWS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE WESTERN CWA. FURTHER EAST...THE MODELS BEGIN TO INCREASE A
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH TWO
DAYS OF MELTING SNOW...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY MOIST AND
WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE THREAT FOR FOG FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM
AND SREF ARE INDICATIVE OF A FOG THREAT FRIDAY AM...WHILE THE GFS IS
NOT. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FOG MENTION FOR NOW AS THIS IS WELL
INTO THE MID RANGE PERIOD AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE GFS/ECMWF COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SREF/NAM CAMP. ALSO...THERE IS SOME
DOUBT AS TO WINDS FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE NAM HAS SOME DECENT H925
WINDS IN AREAS WHERE THE BL IS NEARLY SATURATED. IF THE WINDS COME
TO FRUITION...THE FOG THREAT MAY BE DIMINISHED. STILL TOO MANY
DOUBTS YET TO INTRODUCE IT IN THE FORECAST.

BEYOND FRIDAY...A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AS ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS ABSENT FROM THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SATURDAY
AS A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL DROP HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SECONDARY DRY TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WI CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY EAST.

VFR WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE FCST AREA BY 12Z...15Z AT THE
LATEST. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THEREAFTER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

 1135 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

.UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER STONEWALL COUNTY...SOUTHERN PART OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS...CLOSE TO WHERE BOTH HRRR AND NAM12 INDICATING IT
WOULD BE. DRIER AIR EDGING SOUTHWARD SHOULD DIMINISH PATCHES
MOSTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. ADDED PATCHY FOG THIS AREA REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR CONTINUING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR AND DRIER. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING IN OVERNIGHT WITH
GENERAL LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY TONIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION ALOFT THE RESULT OF A
MODEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH THE FCST AREA. CONSEQUENCES OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL SEE A SUBTLE CHANGE IN DIRECTION OF SFC WINDS
TOWARD NW AND NORTH. SOME DRY ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS TO
FALL A BIT FURTHER THAN SEEN THIS MORNING AND WILL EFFECTIVELY
ELIMINATE RISK FOR FOG AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THURS TO FRI
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AHEAD OF A TROF OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND WILL DIG TO THE RIO GRANDE. MODELS HAVE
BECOME MORE IN LINE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE WAVE OPEN WHILE PASSING
THE REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE THE MODELS HAVE DUKED
OUT IS WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE CAN BE PUMPED IN TO ALLOW
PRECIP TO DEVELOP SUN AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY FROM THE TROF MOVES
IN TO THE REGION. THE ANSWER IS NO. A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS A LARGE
CHUNK OF THE EASTERN US WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST WHICH WILL PUSH
MOISTURE OUT OF REACH OF THE TROF. DUE TO THIS REASON ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP FOR SUN HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. IN RETURN LOWS
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY SUN MORNING HAVE BEEN DROPPED BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES DUE TO SURFACE AIR BEING DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
MANY OF THE BIAS CORRECTED MODEL GRIDS AGREE WITH TEMPS BEING COOLER
FOR THIS REASON.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT CLOUDY (NO PUN INTENDED) EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. THE GFS BUILDS A RIDGE INTO THE REGION HELPING TO WARM
TEMPS TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE WHILE THE ECMWF WISHES TO KEEP
THINGS ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH A TROF PUSHING A RELATIVELY WEAK
FRONT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY THE FORECAST INTO MID NEXT WEEK
APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY. GETTING INTO FORBIDDEN TERRITORY...A CHANGE
IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN MAY BE COMING BY NEXT WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP TROF IN SOME FASHION EYEING UP THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION.

ALDRICH

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1113 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015


.AVIATION...
PATCHY LT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL END BY 09Z
AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NW TO SE. LIFR CONDS AT 06Z
WILL TRANSITION TO VFR BY 12Z. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/

UPDATE...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT FORECAST REMAINING ON TRACK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE IN SW-NE ORIENTED
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK PERSISTING ACROSS SERN TX. MAY SEE AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED
BY LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SOUTH OF HWY 59. WILL KEEP SLGT CHANCE
WORDING IN PLACE WITH CHANCE WORDING NEAR THE COAST. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND SOME CLEARING UP NORTH WILL DIP OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL
INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP CAUTIONARY WORDING
IN PLACE FOR THE NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES...AND WARRANTS SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS BEGINNING AROUND 2AM AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING.

48

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      43  62  37  60  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              49  62  42  60  37 /  20  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            56  63  50  59  47 /  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48
AVIATION/MARINE...43




PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.



 &&

.AVIATION...
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE AT BOTH SAT AND
SSF THIS EVENING. THE HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS MANAGE TO CAPTURE
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CLOUDS WILL
HANG ON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WE/LL CONTINUE
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AT KSSF UNTIL 10Z...WITH TEMPO MVFR AT KSAT
THROUGH 09Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR SKIES ARE IN STORE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY
WINDS TO THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

QUIET SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS A DRY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE FOUR CORNER REGION PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
PLACE A WEAK COLD FRONT/DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
CHARACTERIZED WITH LOW TEENS DEWPOINTS TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
AND 30S/40S DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND
BRING SOME STRONGER NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH. DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
BEEN ABLE TO PRECEDE THE FRONT AND THIS HAS ACTED TO INCREASE THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WITH WEAKER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR
THE COASTAL PLAINS. WHILE SOME VIRGA WILL BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LOWER LEVELS PER NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST IT WILL QUITE DIFFICULT FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND. HAVE REMOVED AND WEATHER MENTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AND REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TO ONLY 10% FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH
EVEN LESS VALUES FARTHER WEST.

THE CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL ALLOW FOR
A COOLER MORNING AND HAVE GONE BELOW SUPERBLEND VALUES THAT ARE
MORE IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH LINE UP TOWARDS RAW MAV/MET
MOS. EXPECT A DECENT WARM-UP WEDNESDAY AFTN AS AMPLE SUN COMBINES
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO
UPPER 60S.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY AS CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OCCUR. BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
BUT MAY ALSO BE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH ONLY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE COOLEST OF THE PERIOD WITH
LOCALIZED FREEZING POCKETS OCCURRING IN THE HILL COUNTRY. OTHER
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AS CLEAR
SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR NEAR CALM WINDS AIDS A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PWATS ONLY RECOVER TO 0.5"-0.7" AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IT WILL BE
QUITE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR RAIN CHANCES. HAVE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY TO
THE 10-15% RANGE GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS OF LITTLE TO NO
RAIN EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER LIKELY CHANCE OF SOME
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE HILL COUNTRY NEXT TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  65  41  61  38 /  -   -    0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  40  65  37  61  34 /  -   -    0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     44  65  38  62  36 /  -   -    0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            40  62  37  60  36 /  -    0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  68  39  65  38 /  -    0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        40  62  37  59  35 /  -   -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             43  67  36  64  35 /  -   -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        43  64  38  61  36 /  -   -    0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   46  64  40  61  37 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  67  38  64  37 /  -   -    0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           46  66  40  64  38 /  -   -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 255 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND
PASS OFFSHORE TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE ONGOING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER
AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

FLOOD THREAT REMAINS THE OVERALL CONCERN AT LEAST INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS TO THE NW THIS
MORNING. ONCE THIS FEATURE WORKS TO THE NORTH...SHOULD SEE THE TRAILING
SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SURGE EAST...AIDED BY THE PIVOTING 5H UPPER
SYSTEM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE SPED UP
THE TIMING OF EXITING THE HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE WEST BY MIDDAY AND
OUT EAST A FEW HOURS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE A BIT QUICK.
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WILL GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHALLOW CONVECTION
WITHIN THE AXIS OF STEADY RAIN AS SO FAR THE WEDGE HAS PRECLUDED
THIS WITH RAINFALL RATES ON THE LOW SIDE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
ONLY SLOW RISES ON AREA STREAMS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO HINT AT PERIODIC CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS BUT MAINLY ON THE WESTERN SLOPES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY TRYING TO
MAKE A RUN BY MID AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE ALSO CUT BACK ON THE ADDED QPF
OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THE WATCH IN PLACE WITH HEAVIEST QPF STILL OVER THE FAR WEST/SW
WHERE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH
AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE PER THE LATEST ECMWF. GIVEN FASTER
TRENDS ALSO PLAN TO CUT BACK POPS A BIT FASTER AFTER THIS MORNING
OVER THE WEST AND PIEDMONT BEFORE SUNSET. HIGH TEMPS TRICKY WITH
THE WEDGE LINGERING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP
EXODUS WHICH COULD ALLOW A QUICK SPIKE IN VALUES BEFORE THE ACTUAL
FRONT CROSSES FROM THE WEST LATER. MOST MOS NEAR OR ABOVE 60 FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST SO BUMPED UP VALUES MOST LOCATIONS INCLUDING
THE FAR WEST WHERE ALREADY IN THE 50S IN SPOTS.

DECENT 85H FRONT WILL CROSS THE FAR WEST BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE
REST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK UPTICK IN
COLD ADVECTION INCLUDING GUSTY NW WINDS...AND UPSLOPE DRIVEN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WESTERN SLOPES WHILE AIDING DOWNSLOPE CLEARING OUT EAST. COULD
BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS NC MOUNTAINS PER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
QUICK DROP IN 85H TEMPS BUT GIVEN ONLY 40 KTS AT 85H WILL HOLD JUST
BELOW WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS RIGHT NEAR DAYBREAK THU. APPEARS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OUT
WEST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT COATING AT ELEVATION
FAR NW DESPITE A WET/WARM GROUND AND GUSTY WINDS. OTRW WILL HAVE
THE TYPICAL SPLIT IN SPILLOVER LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND CLEAR OUT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY 30S EXCEPT ONLY
AROUND 40 PIEDMONT PENDING THE DEGREE OF MIXING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH TRANSIENT SPLIT
FLOW CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND GIVES WAY TO RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BRING A FEW DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE
REGION...SAVE FOR BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THAT WILL
BE DISSIPATING THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS STARTING
OUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...THEN RISING TO SEASONAL
LEVELS OF MIDDLE 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
WEST BY SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE. THE GFS CUTS OFF THE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS AN OPEN
WAVE AND PUSHES IT OUT TO SEA. IN ANY CASE ...THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS FEATURE REMAINS LIMITED...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING IN THE
EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN A SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE COAST
FROM THE GULF. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS THIS IS OVER A WEEK AWAY. THE
GFS IS WETTER THAN THE ECMWF. WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RAIN.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST TUESDAY...

MAINLY IFR OR WORSE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH
SOME POCKETS OF VFR WITH MIXING WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.

THERE WILL BE VARIABILITY IN VSBYS BASED ON INTENSITY OF RAINFALL.
TYPICAL FLUCTUATIONS WILL RUN FROM 1/4 TO 1SM IN MODERATE RAIN OR
WHEN RAIN TAPERS OFF...WHILE CIGS MAY LIFT TOWARD MVFR AROUND
1-2KFT IF RAIN COMES DOWN HARD ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE LOW CIGS
SOME.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT 00Z-15Z WILL SEE SUB MVFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL SITES.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WED WINDS START TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A BKN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING IN. THE WEDGE ERODES
BY AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE CIGS IN MVFR WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH RAIN SHOWERS. MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING
OF DRYING IN THE WEST. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF
BLF/LWB/BCB...17-19Z...AND ROA BY 19Z...LINGERING AT LYH/DAN TIL
22Z. WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AT BLF/LWB LATE AND
GUSTS TO 20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT LEAST AT BLF DURING THIS TIME.

SHOULD SEE WEST WINDS AT ALL SITES AFTER 00Z THU.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SOME IFR IN UPSLOPE AREAS AT KBLF AND KLWB WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND FRONT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER PATCHY EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT MORNING DUE TO MOIST GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 245 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH FEW ADDITIONS GIVEN OVERALL SLOW
RAINFALL RATES AND LESS COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH PWATS
200-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THE RAINFALL EFFICIENCY SHOULD BE HIGH
THROUGH THIS MORNING WEST AND EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION MIXING IN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AROUND MIDDAY. THUS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING
WILL BE OVER THE WEST INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION WITH HEAVIER
RAINFALL MOVING UP THE WESTERN SLOPES BEFORE HEADING EAST LATER
THIS MORNING.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH MAIN STEM RIVERS AND THE HEADWATERS...LIKE
UPPER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER. PRESENTLY...THE DAN RIVER FROM
DANVILLE...DOWNSTREAM TO SOUTH BOSTON IS FAVORED TO GO TO NEAR
FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING...IF THE RAINFALL OF ANOTHER INCH
OR SO PANS OUT THROUGH LATER TODAY. THEREFORE GIVEN LESS RAINFALL
ACROSS THAT BASIN SO FAR WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW MUCH ACTUALLY
FALLS BEFORE ANY FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-010-012>017-
     022>024-032>035-045>047.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...AMS/SK/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH/KK/WP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 1157 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA
LATE ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...

KEEPING WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
MOVING ACROSS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST
6 HOURS HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...MAINLY STAYING UNDER ONE HALF INCH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS PER RADAR HAS BEEN ONE HALF TO JUST OVER THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN SOUTHERN WILKES AND YADKIN COUNTIES.

00Z PWAT FROM RNK WAS 1.06" AND MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS PWATS OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES IN THE REGION...WHICH IS RUNNING ALMOST 3 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. HENCE THE FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION...

MODIFIED FORECAST THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS...WHICH
MATCHED WELL WITH THE 22Z HRRR AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 18Z NAM.
MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SW CWA AFTER 8 PM...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER TIL 8 PM.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE INCREASE IN RAINFALL BY MIDNIGHT...WHERE
IT WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...NWD INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE INTO THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. UPPER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ABOUT 1/4 INCH IN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE SW...THOUGH 24 TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2"
BETWEEN 7 PM THIS EVENING AND 7 PM WEDNESDAY.

PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
SHALLOW WEDGE WAS STILL IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BUT WIND SPEEDS WERE LIGHT. MSAS LIFTED INDEX
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WEDGE EXTENDED WELL INTO NORTH CAROLINA.
BUFKIT FORECAST HAD THE DEPTH OF THE WEDGE LESS THAN 1500 FEET.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOWN A VERY SLOW RISE TODAY. THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...LIKE HOT SPRINGS...THAT WERE ABOVE THE INVERSION
HAD WARMED INTO THE 50S.

WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUED TO SHOW A LONG PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION. CHALLENGING TO DISCERN ANY OF THE SHORT WAVES IN THIS FLOW
BUT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALONG THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BACK THE WINDS AND HELP
INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
REMAINS STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

STAYED WITH A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND OVERNIGHT AND FOR
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN MOST
LOCATIONS BEFORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION ADVANCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AS IT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE LOW CENTER WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA
ON ITS WAY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND GENERATE SOME UPSLOPE
RAIN/TO/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE A
LIGHT COATING IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH A 40 KNOT 850 MB JET
AND 4 TO 5MB 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ON THE GFS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THURSDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID
20S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOW 50S IN
THE EAST. IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES DROPPING TO THE
MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE. THE GFS CUTS OFF THE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS AN OPEN
WAVE AND PUSHES IT OUT TO SEA. IN ANY CASE ...THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS FEATURE REMAINS LIMITED...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING IN THE
EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN A SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE COAST
FROM THE GULF. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS THIS IS OVER A WEEK AWAY. THE
GFS IS WETTER THAN THE ECMWF. WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST TUESDAY...

MAINLY IFR OR WORSE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH
SOME POCKETS OF VFR WITH MIXING WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.

THERE WILL BE VARIABILITY IN VSBYS BASED ON INTENSITY OF RAINFALL.
TYPICAL FLUCTUATIONS WILL RUN FROM 1/4 TO 1SM IN MODERATE RAIN OR
WHEN RAIN TAPERS OFF...WHILE CIGS MAY LIFT TOWARD MVFR AROUND
1-2KFT IF RAIN COMES DOWN HARD ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE LOW CIGS
SOME.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT 00Z-15Z WILL SEE SUB MVFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL SITES.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WED WINDS START TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A BKN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING IN. THE WEDGE ERODES
BY AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE CIGS IN MVFR WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH RAIN SHOWERS. MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING
OF DRYING IN THE WEST. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF
BLF/LWB/BCB...17-19Z...AND ROA BY 19Z...LINGERING AT LYH/DAN TIL
22Z. WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AT BLF/LWB LATE AND
GUSTS TO 20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT LEAST AT BLF DURING THIS TIME.

SHOULD SEE WEST WINDS AT ALL SITES AFTER 00Z THU.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SOME IFR IN UPSLOPE AREAS AT KBLF AND KLWB WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND FRONT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER PATCHY EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT MORNING DUE TO MOIST GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 950 PM AM EST TUESDAY...

FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE LOCATIONS IT
COVERS. WITH PWATS 200-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THE RAINFALL
EFFICIENCY SHOULD BE HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY...THE
THREAT FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
1AM...IN THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES UP
FROM THE SMOKYS.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH MAIN STEM RIVERS AND THE HEADWATERS...LIKE
UPPER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER. PRESENTLY...THE DAN RIVER FROM
DANVILLE...DOWNSTREAM TO SOUTH BOSTON IS FAVORED TO GO TO NEAR
FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING...IF THE RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES
PANS OUT THROUGH TOMORROW. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW MUCH ACTUALLY
FALLS BEFORE ANY FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-010-
     012>017-022>024-032>035-045>047.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/SK/WP
HYDROLOGY...KK/SK/WP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 118 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 117 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015

WILL UP SNOW AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPPER LOW WITH A MODEST 900-800 MB SNOW
GROWTH REGION WAS COMBINING WITH A SURFACE CONVERGENT REGION IN
THE SURFACE LOW. ALREADY 2 INCH AMOUNTS REPORTED...AND LOOKS VERY
STATIONARY. WILL CERTAINLY UPDATE THE SPS BUT A SHORT FUSE
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

ONCE THE SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDS TOMORROW...QUIET AND
MILD EARLY-WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM WL REMAIN SPLIT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
BEYOND...WITH A DOMINANT NRN STREAM ACRS CANADA...AND A WEAKER SRN
STREAM ACROS THE SRN CONUS. ONCE THE GRADUALLY WEAKENING REMNANTS
OF SRN STREAM UPR TROF SHIFT OFF TO THE E LATE TOMORROW...THE
FCST AREA WL PRETTY MUCH REMAIN BETWEEN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE
FLOW. THAT FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT AND BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAVE SHIFTED NORTH INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA.  MORE WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME
DRIZZLE ALSO MIXED IN AS WELL...MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA.  SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE
MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 09Z.  WRAP AROUND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LOW AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
TROUBLE REMAINING SATURATED BELOW 700MB...WHICH WOULD INDICATE MORE
OF A SPOTTY/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER THREAT.  OBS ARE ALSO SHOWING
UNKNOWN PRECIP IN SPOTS OVER IOWA...WHICH COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SO WILL INCLUDE BOTH LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OF EITHER.  A FEW
SPOTS COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF SNOW.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
WEST TO NEAR 30 BY THE LAKE.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THU.  THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT WITH THE UPPER LOW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL MAINTAIN BROKEN CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY.  PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD TEMPS UNDER
THE UPPER LOW CALLS FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

ANY LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE N SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING...
WITH CLDS PROBABLY LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
DECREASING. TEMPERATURES WL REMAIN ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BASED TEMPS ON A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS...TWEAKED TOWARD THOSE PRODUCTS THAT HAVE PERFORMED WELL
LATELY.

NO SIG CHGS TO THE EXTENDED FCST GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD-BASED
BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. CONDITIONS HAVE VARIED GREATLY BETWEEN VFR AND
IFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE OF LITTLE ASSISTANCE AS THEY ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WORSE CASE SCENARIO
WITH THIS SET OF TAFS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE OUT WED AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS START TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BY
THE EVENING HOURS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 1054 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

ONCE THE SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDS TOMORROW...QUIET AND
MILD EARLY-WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM WL REMAIN SPLIT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
BEYOND...WITH A DOMINANT NRN STREAM ACRS CANADA...AND A WEAKER SRN
STREAM ACROS THE SRN CONUS. ONCE THE GRADUALLY WEAKENING REMNANTS
OF SRN STREAM UPR TROF SHIFT OFF TO THE E LATE TOMORROW...THE
FCST AREA WL PRETTY MUCH REMAIN BETWEEN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE
FLOW. THAT FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT AND BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAVE SHIFTED NORTH INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA.  MORE WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME
DRIZZLE ALSO MIXED IN AS WELL...MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA.  SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE
MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 09Z.  WRAP AROUND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LOW AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
TROUBLE REMAINING SATURATED BELOW 700MB...WHICH WOULD INDICATE MORE
OF A SPOTTY/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER THREAT.  OBS ARE ALSO SHOWING
UNKNOWN PRECIP IN SPOTS OVER IOWA...WHICH COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SO WILL INCLUDE BOTH LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OF EITHER.  A FEW
SPOTS COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF SNOW.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
WEST TO NEAR 30 BY THE LAKE.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THU.  THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT WITH THE UPPER LOW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL MAINTAIN BROKEN CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY.  PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD TEMPS UNDER
THE UPPER LOW CALLS FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

ANY LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE N SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING...
WITH CLDS PROBABLY LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
DECREASING. TEMPERATURES WL REMAIN ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BASED TEMPS ON A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS...TWEAKED TOWARD THOSE PRODUCTS THAT HAVE PERFORMED WELL
LATELY.

NO SIG CHGS TO THE EXTENDED FCST GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD-BASED
BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. CONDITIONS HAVE VARIED GREATLY BETWEEN VFR AND
IFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE OF LITTLE ASSISTANCE AS THEY ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WORSE CASE SCENARIO
WITH THIS SET OF TAFS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE OUT WED AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS START TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BY
THE EVENING HOURS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 806 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

600 AM CST

SNOW OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS HAS INTENSIFIED PRETTY MUCH AS
ANTICIPATED. SOME TEMPORARY ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN
REPORTED AND CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AT
TIMES THROUGH 730 AM. SNOWFALL IS ACCUMULATING READILY ON GRASSY
SURFACES WITH STILL NOT MUCH HAVING BEEN REPORTED ON PAVED
SURFACES...INCLUDING UP NEAR WOODSTOCK WHERE AN ISOLATED TOTAL OF
3.5 INCHES WAS REPORTED FROM ONE OF OUR OBSERVERS.

THESE ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE NOT ONLY AIDED BY HEAVIER RATES BUT ALSO LARGER
SNOWFLAKES. A RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM ORD INDICATED WIND
SPEEDS LIGHTER THAN 10 KT ALL THE WAY UP TO 3500 FT INDICATING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FRAGMENTING ALLOWING FOR LARGER FLAKES TO
REACH THE GROUND...WHICH WE OBSERVED HERE AT THE WFO FOR A PERIOD.
THE SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED A PRONOUNCED ISOTHERMAL PROFILE NEAR
-5C...LIKELY RIGHT WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETIC LAYER...AND THIS IS
ALL UNDERNEATH A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH AREA. ALTOGETHER THIS
IS ALLOWING FOR LARGER FLAKES TO BE MIXED IN OR EVEN BE
DOMINANT...ALLOWING FOR QUICKER RATES AND SOME HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE PAVEMENT ACCUMULATION WILL BE MUCH LESS WITH
STILL ONLY SOME LIGHT SLUSH ANTICIPATED /AND HARDLY ANY REPORTED
YET/...THE TIMING CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE COMMUTE WITH LOW
VISIBILITY...SO WE CONTINUE THAT MESSAGE WITHIN OUR FORECAST.

MTF

&&

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE SECOND SNOW OF THE SEASON IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. WHILE MUCH
LESS IN TOTAL AMOUNT THAN THE NOVEMBER 20-21 EVENT...THE TIMING IS
PROBLEMATIC. HAVE REFINED HOURLY FORECASTS TO GIVE DETAIL OF
EXPECTED MODERATE/HEAVIER SNOWFALL TIMING AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
SHOW THEIR HAND...THOUGH THIS IS STILL LARGELY IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS ON
GRASS SURFACES INTO THE 1 TO 2 INCH CATEGORY FOR MANY WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS PROBABLE GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE MODEST RATES. CONTINUE WITH MESSAGING IN THE SPS AND
GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS TOWARD HIGHEST IMPACTS THROUGH 10 AM AND THUS
IMPACTING COMMUTERS.

THE BROAD BUT STRONG UPPER LOW IS GYRATING OVER THE
WI/MN/IA/NORTHERN IL REGION THIS MORNING. A NOTEWORTHY EMBEDDED
VORTICITY CENTER IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MO THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AROUND DAYBREAK. ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS IS A FAVORED AREA FOR FOCUSED MORE INTENSE
ASCENT WHICH WILL OVERRIDE THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
SNOW...SPREADING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS OF 315 AM. THIS
MORE INTENSE SYNOPTIC LIFT LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER TO
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHICH IS TIGHTENING AND ADDING
RESPONSIVE MESOSCALE LIFT...ESPECIALLY WITH CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY ABOVE THAT PER THE RAP MODEL. ALL THIS POINTS TOWARD
AN AREA/BAND OF SNOW TO INTENSIFY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THROUGH 730 AM
OR SO. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...SHIFTING
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BUT LIKELY WEAKENING SOME DURING THE 7 TO
10 AM TIME OR SO. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST INDIANA
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN OR A MIX AT ONSET...BUT SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY
TO SNOW AS DIABATIC COOLING OCCURS.

WEBCAM IMAGERY AND A FEW EARLY MORNING REPORTS ARE INDICATING QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ON GRASS. WHILE PAVEMENT HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY FREE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THUS FAR...THE HEAVIER RATES
WILL COMPENSATE FOR THAT WITH LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION IN PLACES. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY IN
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO WHERE OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATE AIR
TEMPERATURES OF 37-38 DEGREES AS OF 315 AM.

BEHIND THIS SNOW AREA...SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE COLD POCKET ALOFT
AND OTHER EMBEDDED BUT WEAKER VORTICITY MAXIMAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. COVERAGE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO UNDULATE
SOME...BUT HAVE BASICALLY KEPT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF THE DAY
FOR EASTWARD...THOUGH THE DEFINITE POPS AND HEAVIER WORDING IS IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TRY TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY MELT SOME OF THE SNOW THAT
FALLS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS CHALLENGING AS
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER YET THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL INEVITABLY KEEP SOME LARGE AREAS OF CLOUDS TOO. FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR...MID 20S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.
LINGERING CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD ABATE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
329 AM CST

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES
TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND MILD...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
MILD AIR ON SATURDAY WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH LOWER TO MID 50S
AREAWIDE. WHILE NO GUIDANCE HAS THIS IN THEIR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
PREDICTIONS...CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT SUCH READINGS GIVEN THEIR
FORECAST 925MB TEMPERATURES AND DEGREE OF ANOMALIES.

THE 00Z GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD
NEAR OR INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING BUT
MUCH WEAKER/SMALLER UPPER LOW TO THE NEARBY SOUTHWEST. TOGETHER
THIS COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SATURDAY AND HAVE FAVORED THAT ROUTE.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS BRIEFLY TAGGING LIFR IN HEAVIER SNOW...IMPROVING
  TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING.

* SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR VIS LIKELY THROUGH 15Z. VSBYS AS LOW AS
  1/2SM OCCASIONALLY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15 UTC.

* OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WITH REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO TO IFR.

* NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

KMD/KB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

SNOWFALL RATES HAVE PICKED UP CONSIDERABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST AND INTERACTING WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE SEEN VERY INFREQUENT 3/4SM VSBYS IN THE
HEAVIEST RATES AT BOTH KPWK AND KUGN AND NOW AT KPA...BUT MOST
AREAS HAVE NOT GOTTEN LOWER THAN 1SM. CIGS ARE A MIX OF LOW MVFR
WHERE SNOW HAS NOT BEEN FALLING AS LONG TO LIFR FARTHER WEST.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAX INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING NOW AND THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WILL HOLD THE TEMPO 3/4SM AT
ORD AND 1SM AT KMDW. VSBYS COULD BE BRIEFLY LOWER THAN THOSE
INDICATED IN THE TAF WITH 1 MINUTE DATA AT KORD JUST RECENTLY
COMING IN WITH THE FIRST OBSERVATION OF 1/2SM. ACCUMS ON PAVEMENT
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAYBE SOME LIGHT SLUSHY ACCUMS.

AFTER THIS SNOW BAND MOVES INTO NW INDIANA...EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT TO
MVFR OR POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE AS WELL. THERE
IS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LAGGING BEHIND THIS SNOW
BAND BY A FEW HOURS. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST MVFR AND EVEN IFR VSBY
IN THESE SHOWERS...THOUGH THEY MAY GET LESS ORGANIZED AS THEY
SHIFT SE. CIGS LIKELY SETTLE BACK TO MVFR. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A
TEMPO FOR THE LATER MORNING HOURS WITH AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH.

WINDS SHOULD LARGELY BE SW SHIFTING TO W AND THEN NW THROUGH THE DAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH WE MAY TAP SOME MID
TEENS GUSTS IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO
NW AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE. WE KEEP A NW WIND THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE MIXED AS TO WHETHER CIGS ARE SCT OR BROKEN.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* HIGH IN SNOW TAPERING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

* MEDIUM IN OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS TODAY.

* MEDIUM ON WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KMD/KB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH GENERALLY SW WINDS. WINDS MAY
SHIFT TO VARIABLE/EASTERLY ON MONDAY.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
108 AM CST

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
SPREADING ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SECONDARY LOW CENTER OVER THE LAKE...MODEST PRESSURE RISES AS
THE LOW DEPARTS COULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS EAST THROUGH HUDSON BAY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL EXPAND OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY. THIS
PATTERN SUGGESTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHTER TO MODEST SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR DECEMBER
AFTER TODAYS COLD FRONT.

KMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 605 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
600 AM CST

SNOW OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS HAS INTENSIFIED PRETTY MUCH AS
ANTICIPATED. SOME TEMPORARY ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN
REPORTED AND CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AT
TIMES THROUGH 730 AM. SNOWFALL IS ACCUMULATING READILY ON GRASSY
SURFACES WITH STILL NOT MUCH HAVING BEEN REPORTED ON PAVED
SURFACES...INCLUDING UP NEAR WOODSTOCK WHERE AN ISOLATED TOTAL OF
3.5 INCHES WAS REPORTED FROM ONE OF OUR OBSERVERS.

THESE ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE NOT ONLY AIDED BY HEAVIER RATES BUT ALSO LARGER
SNOWFLAKES. A RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM ORD INDICATED WIND
SPEEDS LIGHTER THAN 10 KT ALL THE WAY UP TO 3500 FT INDICATING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FRAGMENTING ALLOWING FOR LARGER FLAKES TO
REACH THE GROUND...WHICH WE OBSERVED HERE AT THE WFO FOR A PERIOD.
THE SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED A PRONOUNCED ISOTHERMAL PROFILE NEAR
-5C...LIKELY RIGHT WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETIC LAYER...AND THIS IS
ALL UNDERNEATH A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH AREA. ALTOGETHER THIS
IS ALLOWING FOR LARGER FLAKES TO BE MIXED IN OR EVEN BE
DOMINANT...ALLOWING FOR QUICKER RATES AND SOME HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE PAVEMENT ACCUMULATION WILL BE MUCH LESS WITH
STILL ONLY SOME LIGHT SLUSH ANTICIPATED /AND HARDLY ANY REPORTED
YET/...THE TIMING CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE COMMUTE WITH LOW
VISIBILITY...SO WE CONTINUE THAT MESSAGE WITHIN OUR FORECAST.

MTF

&&

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE SECOND SNOW OF THE SEASON IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. WHILE MUCH
LESS IN TOTAL AMOUNT THAN THE NOVEMBER 20-21 EVENT...THE TIMING IS
PROBLEMATIC. HAVE REFINED HOURLY FORECASTS TO GIVE DETAIL OF
EXPECTED MODERATE/HEAVIER SNOWFALL TIMING AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
SHOW THEIR HAND...THOUGH THIS IS STILL LARGELY IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS ON
GRASS SURFACES INTO THE 1 TO 2 INCH CATEGORY FOR MANY WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS PROBABLE GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE MODEST RATES. CONTINUE WITH MESSAGING IN THE SPS AND
GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS TOWARD HIGHEST IMPACTS THROUGH 10 AM AND THUS
IMPACTING COMMUTERS.

THE BROAD BUT STRONG UPPER LOW IS GYRATING OVER THE
WI/MN/IA/NORTHERN IL REGION THIS MORNING. A NOTEWORTHY EMBEDDED
VORTICITY CENTER IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MO THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AROUND DAYBREAK. ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS IS A FAVORED AREA FOR FOCUSED MORE INTENSE
ASCENT WHICH WILL OVERRIDE THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
SNOW...SPREADING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS OF 315 AM. THIS
MORE INTENSE SYNOPTIC LIFT LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER TO
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHICH IS TIGHTENING AND ADDING
RESPONSIVE MESOSCALE LIFT...ESPECIALLY WITH CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY ABOVE THAT PER THE RAP MODEL. ALL THIS POINTS TOWARD
AN AREA/BAND OF SNOW TO INTENSIFY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THROUGH 730 AM
OR SO. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...SHIFTING
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BUT LIKELY WEAKENING SOME DURING THE 7 TO
10 AM TIME OR SO. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST INDIANA
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN OR A MIX AT ONSET...BUT SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY
TO SNOW AS DIABATIC COOLING OCCURS.

WEBCAM IMAGERY AND A FEW EARLY MORNING REPORTS ARE INDICATING QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ON GRASS. WHILE PAVEMENT HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY FREE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THUS FAR...THE HEAVIER RATES
WILL COMPENSATE FOR THAT WITH LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION IN PLACES. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY IN
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO WHERE OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATE AIR
TEMPERATURES OF 37-38 DEGREES AS OF 315 AM.

BEHIND THIS SNOW AREA...SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE COLD POCKET ALOFT
AND OTHER EMBEDDED BUT WEAKER VORTICITY MAXIMAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. COVERAGE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO UNDULATE
SOME...BUT HAVE BASICALLY KEPT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF THE DAY
FOR EASTWARD...THOUGH THE DEFINITE POPS AND HEAVIER WORDING IS IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TRY TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY MELT SOME OF THE SNOW THAT
FALLS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS CHALLENGING AS
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER YET THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL INEVITABLY KEEP SOME LARGE AREAS OF CLOUDS TOO. FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR...MID 20S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.
LINGERING CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD ABATE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
329 AM CST

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES
TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND MILD...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
MILD AIR ON SATURDAY WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH LOWER TO MID 50S
AREAWIDE. WHILE NO GUIDANCE HAS THIS IN THEIR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
PREDICTIONS...CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT SUCH READINGS GIVEN THEIR
FORECAST 925MB TEMPERATURES AND DEGREE OF ANOMALIES.

THE 00Z GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD
NEAR OR INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING BUT
MUCH WEAKER/SMALLER UPPER LOW TO THE NEARBY SOUTHWEST. TOGETHER
THIS COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SATURDAY AND HAVE FAVORED THAT ROUTE.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS BRIEFLY TAGGING LIFR IN HEAVIER SNOW...IMPROVING
  TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING.

* SNOW WITH IFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY AND LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
  BRIEFLY BEFORE 14Z. VSBYS AS LOW AS 1SM COMMMON...3/4SM
  OCCASIONALLY. 1/2SM PSBL AS WELL.

* OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WITH REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO
  MVFR...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR.

* NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

KMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

SNOWFALL RATES HAVE PICKED UP CONSIDERABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST AND INTERACTING WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE SEEN VERY INFREQUENT 3/4SM VSBYS IN THE
HEAVIEST RATES AT BOTH KPWK AND KUGN AND NOW AT KPA...BUT MOST
AREAS HAVE NOT GOTTEN LOWER THAN 1SM. CIGS ARE A MIX OF LOW MVFR
WHERE SNOW HAS NOT BEEN FALLING AS LONG TO LIFR FARTHER WEST.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAX INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING NOW AND THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WILL HOLD THE TEMPO 3/4SM AT
ORD AND 1SM AT KMDW. VSBYS COULD BE BRIEFLY LOWER THAN THOSE
INDICATED IN THE TAF WITH 1 MINUTE DATA AT KORD JUST RECENTLY
COMING IN WITH THE FIRST OBSERVATION OF 1/2SM. ACCUMS ON PAVEMENT
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAYBE SOME LIGHT SLUSHY ACCUMS.

AFTER THIS SNOW BAND MOVES INTO NW INDIANA...EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT TO
MVFR OR POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE AS WELL. THERE
IS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LAGGING BEHIND THIS SNOW
BAND BY A FEW HOURS. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST MVFR AND EVEN IFR VSBY
IN THESE SHOWERS...THOUGH THEY MAY GET LESS ORGANIZED AS THEY
SHIFT SE. CIGS LIKELY SETTLE BACK TO MVFR. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A
TEMPO FOR THE LATER MORNING HOURS WITH AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH.

WINDS SHOULD LARGELY BE SW SHIFTING TO W AND THEN NW THROUGH THE DAY.
NO SIGNFICANT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH WE MAY TAP SOME MID TEENS
GUSTS IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE. WE KEEP A NW WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
GUIDANCE MIXED AS TO WHETHER CIGS ARE SCT OR BROKEN.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM IN GENERAL CIG TRENDS AND IN TIMING COINCIDENT WITH THE
  SNOW BAND.

* HIGH IN SNOW TAPERING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEDIUM IN PREVAILING
  CIG/VIS TRENDS WITH THE SNOW BAND...AND HIGH WITH AT LEAST AS LOW
  AS 1SM VSBY IN THE SNOW BAND. LOW-MEDIUM ON DURATION OF 3/4SM
  VSBY. MEDIUM IN EXACT TIMING/DURATION OF LOWEST CIG/VIS.

* MEDIUM IN OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBY IN SHOWERS TODAY.

* MEDIUM ON WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH GENERALLY SW WINDS. WINDS MAY
SHIFT TO VARIABLE/EASTERLY ON MONDAY.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
108 AM CST

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
SPREADING ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SECONDARY LOW CENTER OVER THE LAKE...MODEST PRESSURE RISES AS
THE LOW DEPARTS COULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS EAST THROUGH HUDSON BAY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL EXPAND OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY. THIS
PATTERN SUGGESTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHTER TO MODEST SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR DECEMBER
AFTER TODAYS COLD FRONT.

KMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 549 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE SECOND SNOW OF THE SEASON IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. WHILE MUCH
LESS IN TOTAL AMOUNT THAN THE NOVEMBER 20-21 EVENT...THE TIMING IS
PROBLEMATIC. HAVE REFINED HOURLY FORECASTS TO GIVE DETAIL OF
EXPECTED MODERATE/HEAVIER SNOWFALL TIMING AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
SHOW THEIR HAND...THOUGH THIS IS STILL LARGELY IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS ON
GRASS SURFACES INTO THE 1 TO 2 INCH CATEGORY FOR MANY WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS PROBABLE GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE MODEST RATES. CONTINUE WITH MESSAGING IN THE SPS AND
GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS TOWARD HIGHEST IMPACTS THROUGH 10 AM AND THUS
IMPACTING COMMUTERS.

THE BROAD BUT STRONG UPPER LOW IS GYRATING OVER THE
WI/MN/IA/NORTHERN IL REGION THIS MORNING. A NOTEWORTHY EMBEDDED
VORTICITY CENTER IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MO THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AROUND DAYBREAK. ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS IS A FAVORED AREA FOR FOCUSED MORE INTENSE
ASCENT WHICH WILL OVERRIDE THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
SNOW...SPREADING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS OF 315 AM. THIS
MORE INTENSE SYNOPTIC LIFT LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER TO
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHICH IS TIGHTENING AND ADDING
RESPONSIVE MESOSCALE LIFT...ESPECIALLY WITH CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY ABOVE THAT PER THE RAP MODEL. ALL THIS POINTS TOWARD
AN AREA/BAND OF SNOW TO INTENSIFY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THROUGH 730 AM
OR SO. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...SHIFTING
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BUT LIKELY WEAKENING SOME DURING THE 7 TO
10 AM TIME OR SO. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST INDIANA
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN OR A MIX AT ONSET...BUT SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY
TO SNOW AS DIABATIC COOLING OCCURS.

WEBCAM IMAGERY AND A FEW EARLY MORNING REPORTS ARE INDICATING QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ON GRASS. WHILE PAVEMENT HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY FREE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THUS FAR...THE HEAVIER RATES
WILL COMPENSATE FOR THAT WITH LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION IN PLACES. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY IN
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO WHERE OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATE AIR
TEMPERATURES OF 37-38 DEGREES AS OF 315 AM.

BEHIND THIS SNOW AREA...SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE COLD POCKET ALOFT
AND OTHER EMBEDDED BUT WEAKER VORTICITY MAXIMAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. COVERAGE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO UNDULATE
SOME...BUT HAVE BASICALLY KEPT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF THE DAY
FOR EASTWARD...THOUGH THE DEFINITE POPS AND HEAVIER WORDING IS IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TRY TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY MELT SOME OF THE SNOW THAT
FALLS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS CHALLENGING AS
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER YET THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL INEVITABLY KEEP SOME LARGE AREAS OF CLOUDS TOO. FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR...MID 20S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.
LINGERING CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD ABATE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
329 AM CST

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES
TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND MILD...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
MILD AIR ON SATURDAY WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH LOWER TO MID 50S
AREAWIDE. WHILE NO GUIDANCE HAS THIS IN THEIR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
PREDICTIONS...CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT SUCH READINGS GIVEN THEIR
FORECAST 925MB TEMPERATURES AND DEGREE OF ANOMALIES.

THE 00Z GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD
NEAR OR INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING BUT
MUCH WEAKER/SMALLER UPPER LOW TO THE NEARBY SOUTHWEST. TOGETHER
THIS COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SATURDAY AND HAVE FAVORED THAT ROUTE.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS BRIEFLY TAGGING LIFR IN HEAVIER SNOW...IMPROVING
  TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING.

* SNOW WITH IFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY AND LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
  BRIEFLY BEFORE 14Z. VSBYS AS LOW AS 1SM COMMMON...3/4SM
  OCCASIONALLY. 1/2SM PSBL AS WELL.

* OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WITH REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO
  MVFR...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR.

* NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

KMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

SNOWFALL RATES HAVE PICKED UP CONSIDERABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST AND INTERACTING WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE SEEN VERY INFREQUENT 3/4SM VSBYS IN THE
HEAVIEST RATES AT BOTH KPWK AND KUGN AND NOW AT KPA...BUT MOST
AREAS HAVE NOT GOTTEN LOWER THAN 1SM. CIGS ARE A MIX OF LOW MVFR
WHERE SNOW HAS NOT BEEN FALLING AS LONG TO LIFR FARTHER WEST.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAX INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING NOW AND THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WILL HOLD THE TEMPO 3/4SM AT
ORD AND 1SM AT KMDW. VSBYS COULD BE BRIEFLY LOWER THAN THOSE
INDICATED IN THE TAF WITH 1 MINUTE DATA AT KORD JUST RECENTLY
COMING IN WITH THE FIRST OBSERVATION OF 1/2SM. ACCUMS ON PAVEMENT
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAYBE SOME LIGHT SLUSHY ACCUMS.

AFTER THIS SNOW BAND MOVES INTO NW INDIANA...EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT TO
MVFR OR POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE AS WELL. THERE
IS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LAGGING BEHIND THIS SNOW
BAND BY A FEW HOURS. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST MVFR AND EVEN IFR VSBY
IN THESE SHOWERS...THOUGH THEY MAY GET LESS ORGANIZED AS THEY
SHIFT SE. CIGS LIKELY SETTLE BACK TO MVFR. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A
TEMPO FOR THE LATER MORNING HOURS WITH AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH.

WINDS SHOULD LARGELY BE SW SHIFTING TO W AND THEN NW THROUGH THE DAY.
NO SIGNFICANT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH WE MAY TAP SOME MID TEENS
GUSTS IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE. WE KEEP A NW WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
GUIDANCE MIXED AS TO WHETHER CIGS ARE SCT OR BROKEN.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM IN GENERAL CIG TRENDS AND IN TIMING COINCIDENT WITH THE
  SNOW BAND.

* HIGH IN SNOW TAPERING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEDIUM IN PREVAILING
  CIG/VIS TRENDS WITH THE SNOW BAND...AND HIGH WITH AT LEAST AS LOW
  AS 1SM VSBY IN THE SNOW BAND. LOW-MEDIUM ON DURATION OF 3/4SM
  VSBY. MEDIUM IN EXACT TIMING/DURATION OF LOWEST CIG/VIS.

* MEDIUM IN OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBY IN SHOWERS TODAY.

* MEDIUM ON WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH GENERALLY SW WINDS. WINDS MAY
SHIFT TO VARIABLE/EASTERLY ON MONDAY.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
108 AM CST

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
SPREADING ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SECONDARY LOW CENTER OVER THE LAKE...MODEST PRESSURE RISES AS
THE LOW DEPARTS COULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS EAST THROUGH HUDSON BAY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL EXPAND OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY. THIS
PATTERN SUGGESTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHTER TO MODEST SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR DECEMBER
AFTER TODAYS COLD FRONT.

KMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 532 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE SECOND SNOW OF THE SEASON IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. WHILE MUCH
LESS IN TOTAL AMOUNT THAN THE NOVEMBER 20-21 EVENT...THE TIMING IS
PROBLEMATIC. HAVE REFINED HOURLY FORECASTS TO GIVE DETAIL OF
EXPECTED MODERATE/HEAVIER SNOWFALL TIMING AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
SHOW THEIR HAND...THOUGH THIS IS STILL LARGELY IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS ON
GRASS SURFACES INTO THE 1 TO 2 INCH CATEGORY FOR MANY WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS PROBABLE GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE MODEST RATES. CONTINUE WITH MESSAGING IN THE SPS AND
GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS TOWARD HIGHEST IMPACTS THROUGH 10 AM AND THUS
IMPACTING COMMUTERS.

THE BROAD BUT STRONG UPPER LOW IS GYRATING OVER THE
WI/MN/IA/NORTHERN IL REGION THIS MORNING. A NOTEWORTHY EMBEDDED
VORTICITY CENTER IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MO THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AROUND DAYBREAK. ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS IS A FAVORED AREA FOR FOCUSED MORE INTENSE
ASCENT WHICH WILL OVERRIDE THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
SNOW...SPREADING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS OF 315 AM. THIS
MORE INTENSE SYNOPTIC LIFT LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER TO
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHICH IS TIGHTENING AND ADDING
RESPONSIVE MESOSCALE LIFT...ESPECIALLY WITH CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY ABOVE THAT PER THE RAP MODEL. ALL THIS POINTS TOWARD
AN AREA/BAND OF SNOW TO INTENSIFY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THROUGH 730 AM
OR SO. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...SHIFTING
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BUT LIKELY WEAKENING SOME DURING THE 7 TO
10 AM TIME OR SO. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST INDIANA
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN OR A MIX AT ONSET...BUT SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY
TO SNOW AS DIABATIC COOLING OCCURS.

WEBCAM IMAGERY AND A FEW EARLY MORNING REPORTS ARE INDICATING QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ON GRASS. WHILE PAVEMENT HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY FREE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THUS FAR...THE HEAVIER RATES
WILL COMPENSATE FOR THAT WITH LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION IN PLACES. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY IN
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO WHERE OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATE AIR
TEMPERATURES OF 37-38 DEGREES AS OF 315 AM.

BEHIND THIS SNOW AREA...SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE COLD POCKET ALOFT
AND OTHER EMBEDDED BUT WEAKER VORTICITY MAXIMAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. COVERAGE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO UNDULATE
SOME...BUT HAVE BASICALLY KEPT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF THE DAY
FOR EASTWARD...THOUGH THE DEFINITE POPS AND HEAVIER WORDING IS IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TRY TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY MELT SOME OF THE SNOW THAT
FALLS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS CHALLENGING AS
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER YET THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL INEVITABLY KEEP SOME LARGE AREAS OF CLOUDS TOO. FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR...MID 20S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.
LINGERING CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD ABATE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
329 AM CST

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES
TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND MILD...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
MILD AIR ON SATURDAY WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH LOWER TO MID 50S
AREAWIDE. WHILE NO GUIDANCE HAS THIS IN THEIR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
PREDICTIONS...CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT SUCH READINGS GIVEN THEIR
FORECAST 925MB TEMPERATURES AND DEGREE OF ANOMALIES.

THE 00Z GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD
NEAR OR INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING BUT
MUCH WEAKER/SMALLER UPPER LOW TO THE NEARBY SOUTHWEST. TOGETHER
THIS COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SATURDAY AND HAVE FAVORED THAT ROUTE.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS BRIEFLY TAGGING LIFR IN HEAVIER SNOW...IMPROVING
  TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING.

* SNOW WITH IFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY AND LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BRIEFLY
  BEFORE 14Z. VSBYS AS LOW AS 1SM COMMMON...3/4SM COULD HAPPEN BUT
  LIKELY INFREQUENT.

* OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WITH REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO
  MVFR...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR.

* NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

KMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

SNOWFALL RATES HAVE PICKED UP CONSIDERABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST AND INTERACTING WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE SEEN VERY INFREQUENT 3/4SM VSBYS IN THE
HEAVIEST RATES AT BOTH KPWK AND KUGN AND NOW AT KPA...BUT MOST
AREAS HAVE NOT GOTTEN LOWER THAN 1SM. CIGS ARE A MIX OF LOW MVFR
WHERE SNOW HAS NOT BEEN FALLING AS LONG TO LIFR FARTHER WEST.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAX INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING NOW AND THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WILL HOLD THE TEMPO 3/4SM AT
ORD AND 1SM AT KMDW. ACCUMS ON PAVEMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAYBE
SOME LIGHT SLUSHY ACCUMS.

AFTER THIS SNOW BAND MOVES INTO NW INDIANA...EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT TO
MVFR OR POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE AS WELL. THERE
IS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LAGGING BEHIND THIS SNOW
BAND BY A FEW HOURS. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST MVFR AND EVEN IFR VSBY
IN THESE SHOWERS...THOUGH THEY MAY GET LESS ORGANIZED AS THEY
SHIFT SE. CIGS LIKELY SETTLE BACK TO MVFR. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A
TEMPO FOR THE LATER MORNING HOURS WITH AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH.

WINDS SHOULD LARGELY BE SW SHIFTING TO W AND THEN NW THROUGH THE DAY.
NO SIGNFICANT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH WE MAY TAP SOME MID TEENS
GUSTS IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE. WE KEEP A NW WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
GUIDANCE MIXED AS TO WHETHER CIGS ARE SCT OR BROKEN.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM IN GENERAL CIG TRENDS AND IN TIMING COINCIDENT WITH THE
  SNOW BAND.

* HIGH IN SNOW TAPERING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEDIUM IN PREVAILING
  CIG/VIS TRENDS WITH THE SNOW BAND...AND HIGH WITH AT LEAST AS LOW
  AS 1SM VSBY IN THE SNOW BAND. LOW-MEDIUM ON DURATION OF 3/4SM
  VSBY. MEDIUM IN EXACT TIMING/DURATION OF LOWEST CIG/VIS.

* MEDIUM IN OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBY IN SHOWERS TODAY.

* MEDIUM ON WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH GENERALLY SW WINDS. WINDS MAY
SHIFT TO VARIABLE/EASTERLY ON MONDAY.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
108 AM CST

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
SPREADING ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SECONDARY LOW CENTER OVER THE LAKE...MODEST PRESSURE RISES AS
THE LOW DEPARTS COULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS EAST THROUGH HUDSON BAY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL EXPAND OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY. THIS
PATTERN SUGGESTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHTER TO MODEST SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR DECEMBER
AFTER TODAYS COLD FRONT.

KMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE

NWS JACKSON MS

 1000 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015

.UPDATE...RAIN IS BASICALLY OVER FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD HANG AROUND THE SOUTHEAST MS
PINEBELT REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT HAS
ADVANCED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW ENCROACHING ON THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR. EXPECTING THIS CLEARING LINE TO MAKE PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DUE TO PARADE OF HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER JET...COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES MAY NOT BE SEEN AROUND THE I-
59 CORRIDOR UNTIL VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
THOSE CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MS WILL LIMIT WARMING POTENTIAL WHILE
STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION UP IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA WILL COUNTERACT SOLAR WARMING INFLUENCES...YIELDING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD.
UPDATES TO THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST WERE RELATIVELY MINOR
AND HAVE BEEN SENT DOWN THE LINE. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...THE TREND IS FOR IMPROVEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE ARE A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS REMAINING IN THE AREA SO HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THAT IN THE EASTERN SITES. ALSO...WHAT LITTLE LIGHT
RAIN REMAINS SHOULD NOT CAUSE VSBY RESTRICTIONS. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. /SW/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOWING DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AS
CEILINGS RISE AND CLOUDS CLEAR FROM THE NW. FURTHER SE...HOWEVER...SW
FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES TO WRING OUT AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN. SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS WELL AS MAUL
POCKETS MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN.

THE MAUL POCKETS ARE SHOWN WELL IN THE 00Z JAN SOUNDING AS WELL AS
GFS BUFR AND HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CAM DATA
INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE LEAVING JUST THE DIMINISHING SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA AT OR SHORTLY
AFTER NOON...FOLLOWED PRETTY RAPIDLY BY THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE THE DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE AS SUCH TO PREVENT
WINDS FROM COMPLETELY CALMING. MINS IN THE 30S STILL LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD BET...BUT THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETUP FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE LOW TO MID 30S APPEAR PROBABLE...POSSIBLY SOME
UPPER 20S IN THE FAR NE AREAS./26/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTING JUST EAST OF OUR CWA BY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A >1030MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS PROVIDING A COOL DRY NORTH WIND OVER OUR CWA.
PWATS WILL BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY
BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY AS SITES TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RETURN FLOW OVER OUR
CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER OUR
CWA SATURDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME
HIGHS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MORNING LOWS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MODELS STILL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
NEXT CLOSED LOW THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CANADIAN IS THE SLOWEST AND FARTHEST
SOUTH WITH THE LOW SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THE EURO AND GFS ARE FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH THE EURO
BEING THE FARTHEST EAST OVER THE KANSAS/MISSOURI STATE LINE. MODELS
DIVERGE EVEN FURTHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE EURO BEING DRY
OVER OUR CWA TRACKING THE LOW NORTHEAST WHILE THE GFS IS WETTER FOR
OUR CWA TRACKING THE LOW EAST SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME
CONTINUITY WITH POPS FROM OUR PREVIOUS FCST WITH LOW POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  35  56  33 /  18   1   3   5
MERIDIAN      58  34  56  30 /  27   1   4   6
VICKSBURG     59  36  55  33 /   9   0   2   5
HATTIESBURG   59  37  58  33 /  29   2   6   6
NATCHEZ       61  36  56  33 /  15   1   3   5
GREENVILLE    56  36  53  33 /   6   0   2   5
GREENWOOD     56  33  53  31 /   7   0   2   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/SW/26/22




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

 1018 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL
NEW YORK BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL
EVENTUALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STALLED FRONT IS ANALYZED GENERALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT OVER
WEST VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE FRONT TODAY
WHILE SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER
PENNSYLVANIA PUSHING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE RIVER
VALLEY. HAVE SHIFTED THE RAIN FURTHER WEST AND INCREASED POPS WITH
THE MORNING UPDATE BASED ON 12Z NAM AND HRRR RUNS. THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL GLANCE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF BUFFALO AND
NIAGARA FALLS WITH ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THIS LINE PICKING UP A
TENTH TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THIS HIGHER AMOUNT FALLING
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF THE
RAIN...EXPECT ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF CLEARING
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND JUST WEST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. TEMPS WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH TODAY HOLDING IN THE MID 40S.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE WAVE WILL SHIFT OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WHERE WESTERN NEW YORK WILL SEE
SOME DRY TIME BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS NEW YORK
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF WIDE SPREAD MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SOME SNOW AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD DIRECT ANY ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG
HILL. TOTALS SHOULD RUN AROUND AND INCH OR LESS. ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS INCLUDING THE MAJOR METRO AREAS THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX LATE OVERNIGHT BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THUS THE
SNOWLESS CONDITION FOR BUFFALO WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO FOR A WHILE TO
COME. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR HILLS...AND THE MID 30S ALONG THE SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND LAKE PLAINS TO THE FINGER LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY A SHARP MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE OTTAWA
VALLEY TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL LOBES OF VORTICITY ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING PERIODS
OF ENHANCED ASCENT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OF RAIN AND WET
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL GROW JUST COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 11K FEET. THE MAIN FORCING FOR MORE PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THIS TYPE OF SETUP...WITH THE
GREATEST QPF FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE
JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SHOULD PEAK MID TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY CORRESPONDING TO
THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND MOISTURE...WITH A SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR RAIN VS. WET SNOW
AND WILL BRING PTYPE ISSUES INTO PLAY. ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW...WITH THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR WET
SNOW BEING THURSDAY MORNING WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
COOLEST...AND PRECIP THE STEADIEST RESULTING IN SOME EVAPORATIVE AND
DYNAMIC COOLING. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK AND SUPPORT A CHANGE TO ALL WET SNOW FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...AND ALSO THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THE BRISTOL HILLS SHOULD ALSO SEE AROUND AN
INCH. ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...AND THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY
ACCUMULATION.

IF BUFFALO CAN ESCAPE THIS PERIOD WITH NO MEASURABLE SNOW... A NEW
RECORD WILL BE SET FOR THE LATEST FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW. IN FACT THE
RECORD WOULD BE SHATTERED WITH LITTLE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE LONG
TERM THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 10. THE PREVIOUS LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW ON
RECORD AT BUFFALO WAS DECEMBER 3RD SET IN 1899.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7...BUT STILL ONLY NEAR
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL LOW AND DEVELOPING SECONDARY COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND ASCENT WILL STEADILY DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
SCATTERED UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE TO END OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW. A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN NEAR THE LAKE.
ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

ON FRIDAY A SHARP BUT MOISTURE STARVED MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. IN MOST AREAS THIS WILL JUST BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH ADDITION OF LAKE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT ANY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL END. OTHERWISE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING CLEARING
SKIES TO OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF RARE BENIGN WEATHER
FOR EARLY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER.

OVER THE WEEKEND A STRONG RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE.

BY TUESDAY MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A
CLOSED LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LATEST 00Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES LATER
TUESDAY AND WOULD SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF MOVES
THIS SYSTEM IN A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...KEEPING OUR REGION DRY. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A GOOD
AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY WITH SOME MEMBERS FOLLOWING THE OPERATIONAL
SOLUTION AND SOME MORE IN THE ECMWF CAMP. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AND TIME RANGE FOR NOW WILL JUST STICK WITH THE
PREVIOUS CONTINUITY OF A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 10-12 DAYS AS PACIFIC AIR
CONTINUES TO FLOOD THE NATION. BY THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER...THE PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MORE VARIABILITY IN THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A FAIR NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOWING A PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE TO ALLOWING COLD AIR TO
DRAIN SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US. THIS IS STILL A VERY
LONG WAYS OFF...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TODAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WITH RAIN EXPECTED
GENERALLY EAST OF KBUF/KIAG/KJHW ALTHOUGH ANY SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE
WEST MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. LIFR WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. VFR CIGS AT
KBUF/KIAG/KART WILL FALL TO MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH KROC LATER TODAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS RAIN EXPANDS NORTH. TONIGHT COLDER AIR ARRIVES
WITH SOME RAIN MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO SNOW WHICH WILL LOWER
VIS TO IFR AT KART AND KJHW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SHORT LULL IN ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL
NEW YORK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THEN LOOK TO BE NEEDED THURSDAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FRESHENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN DEPARTING THE LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH/WCH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 1021 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM WEDNESDAY...

ONLY VERY PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS OBSERVED IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS
LATE MORNING APPROACHED...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED GOOD DIFFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AHEAD OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE...EVEN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...TO GENERALLY
AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH NUMEROUS TO AT
TIMES MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS COULD
BE QUITE SCATTERED FOR A WHILE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS ARE NEAR AN INCH
AT BEST AS OF THIS WRITING...AND FARTHEST FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-
LEVEL JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY NOT OCCUR THERE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE CATEGORICAL
CHANCES FOR THAT AREA INTO THE EVENING AS THE RAP FORECASTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ACTUALLY INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY 00Z OR SO.

700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL ON RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALOFT WARMS A LITTLE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER SEEMS REMOTE. 0-3KM MLCAPE BASICALLY ONLY REGISTERS NEAR AND
OFFSHORE...COINCIDENT WITH THE SPC OUTLOOK...BUT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND MUCAPE BETWEEN ABOUT 100 AND
300J/KG AREAWIDE...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AS 700MB TEMPERATURES COOL. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS HIGHS ARE FORECAST ON THE LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE BUT
LIKE THE TREND FOR NOW THOUGH PARTS OF THE TRIAD IN PARTICULAR COULD
END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER WITH KGSO IN THE UPPER 50S ALREADY
AS OF THIS WRITING. OVERNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS
THROUGH CENTRAL NC FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z THURSDAY.
DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH PROBABLY PRETTY LIMITED
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE TRIAD BY 02Z...TRIANGLE BY AROUND
05Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED LOW OVER AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY AS POST-FRONTAL COLD DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY. CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
SUPPORT A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NC. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG/TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO START THE DAY WILL QUICKLY RELAX BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT TO SEE THE STRONGEST NWLY WIND GUSTS BY
LUNCHTIME...IN THE 22 TO 25KT RANGE...DIMINISHING INTO THE TEENS BY
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SERIES OF VIGOROUS MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM SOME
POSSIBLE THIN HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING +1035MB SURFACE HIGH MAINTAINING A DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN SURPRISING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WITH A CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
TUESDAY. CIRRUS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WAY TOO EARLY TO GET TOO DETAILED
BUT WILL MONITOR EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN COULD FAVOR SOME HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR CENTRAL
NC(HEAVY RAIN, LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SEVERE WX).

EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1020 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY VFR AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND ONLY VERY PATCHY IFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS DURING THE DAY AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VEERING TO NNW BEHIND
IT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z
THURSDAY...WITH IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING
CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT (THROUGH MOST OF
CENTRAL NC BY 06-09Z). WINDS MAY BE A BIT BREEZY OUT OF THE NNW
INITIALLY THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD ABATE BY LATE THURSDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS/DJF
NEAR TERM...10/DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...10/DJF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

 957 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAINFALL WILL FINALLY BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT LOCATION OF PRECIP AND ITS MOVEMENT...AND IT SHOWS RAIN
MOVING TO OUR EAST AROUND 20Z. THE CURRENT POP/WX GRIDS ARE CLOSE
TO THIS...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED. THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
ARE NEAR BNA AT THE MOMENT...AND PROJECTING THIS FORWARD BRINGS THE
CLEARING TO OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES AFTER 00Z. SKY GRIDS WILL NEED
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE SLOWER EXIT OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR
ON TRACK SO FAR...AND PROBABLY WILL NOT RISE MUCH GIVEN CLOUD COVER
AND COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB.

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR CHEROKEE AND CLAY WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR NOW
GIVEN THE ONGOING FLOODING SITUATION THERE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 949 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND
PASS OFFSHORE TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE ONGOING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER
AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UP TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT REMAINS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE
COLD FRONT WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS JUST TO OUR WEST. ALL
THESE FEATURES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY...THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
EAST...AIDED BY THE PIVOTING 5H UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. LEANED POPS AND FRONTAL TIMING TOWARDS THE HRRR FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED LATE MORNING
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A CHALLENGE WITH COLD AIR WEDGE AND RAIN...IT
WILL BE MILD THIS AFTERNOON FOR DECEMBER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. DECENT 85H FRONT WILL CROSS THE FAR WEST BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THE REST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN PIEDMONT.




AS OF 210 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

FLOOD THREAT REMAINS THE OVERALL CONCERN AT LEAST INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS TO THE NW THIS
MORNING. ONCE THIS FEATURE WORKS TO THE NORTH...SHOULD SEE THE TRAILING
SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SURGE EAST...AIDED BY THE PIVOTING 5H UPPER
SYSTEM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE SPED UP
THE TIMING OF EXITING THE HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE WEST BY MIDDAY AND
OUT EAST A FEW HOURS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE A BIT QUICK.
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WILL GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHALLOW CONVECTION
WITHIN THE AXIS OF STEADY RAIN AS SO FAR THE WEDGE HAS PRECLUDED
THIS WITH RAINFALL RATES ON THE LOW SIDE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
ONLY SLOW RISES ON AREA STREAMS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO HINT AT PERIODIC CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS BUT MAINLY ON THE WESTERN SLOPES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY TRYING TO
MAKE A RUN BY MID AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE ALSO CUT BACK ON THE ADDED QPF
OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THE WATCH IN PLACE WITH HEAVIEST QPF STILL OVER THE FAR WEST/SW
WHERE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH
AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE PER THE LATEST ECMWF. GIVEN FASTER
TRENDS ALSO PLAN TO CUT BACK POPS A BIT FASTER AFTER THIS MORNING
OVER THE WEST AND PIEDMONT BEFORE SUNSET. HIGH TEMPS TRICKY WITH
THE WEDGE LINGERING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP
EXODUS WHICH COULD ALLOW A QUICK SPIKE IN VALUES BEFORE THE ACTUAL
FRONT CROSSES FROM THE WEST LATER. MOST MOS NEAR OR ABOVE 60 FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST SO BUMPED UP VALUES MOST LOCATIONS INCLUDING
THE FAR WEST WHERE ALREADY IN THE 50S IN SPOTS.

DECENT 85H FRONT WILL CROSS THE FAR WEST BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE
REST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK UPTICK IN
COLD ADVECTION INCLUDING GUSTY NW WINDS...AND UPSLOPE DRIVEN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WESTERN SLOPES WHILE AIDING DOWNSLOPE CLEARING OUT EAST. COULD
BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS NC MOUNTAINS PER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
QUICK DROP IN 85H TEMPS BUT GIVEN ONLY 40 KTS AT 85H WILL HOLD JUST
BELOW WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS RIGHT NEAR DAYBREAK THU. APPEARS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OUT
WEST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT COATING AT ELEVATION
FAR NW DESPITE A WET/WARM GROUND AND GUSTY WINDS. OTRW WILL HAVE
THE TYPICAL SPLIT IN SPILLOVER LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND CLEAR OUT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY 30S EXCEPT ONLY
AROUND 40 PIEDMONT PENDING THE DEGREE OF MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH TRANSIENT SPLIT
FLOW CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND GIVES WAY TO RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BRING A FEW DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE
REGION...SAVE FOR BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THAT WILL
BE DISSIPATING THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS STARTING
OUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...THEN RISING TO SEASONAL
LEVELS OF MIDDLE 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
WEST BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE. THE GFS CUTS OFF THE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS AN OPEN
WAVE AND PUSHES IT OUT TO SEA. IN ANY CASE ...THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS FEATURE REMAINS LIMITED...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING IN THE
EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN A SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE COAST
FROM THE GULF. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS THIS IS OVER A WEEK AWAY. THE
GFS IS WETTER THAN THE ECMWF. WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY IFR OR WORSE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING...THOUGH
SOME POCKETS OF VFR/MVFR WILL OCCUR ESPCLY AROUND KBLF/KLWB WHERE
MORE IN THE WAY OF LIGHT RAIN OUT OF MID DECK OR HIGH BASED
STRATO-CU WILL OCCUR. SW WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AROUND KBLF
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE VARIABILITY IN VSBYS BASED ON INTENSITY OF RAINFALL.
TYPICAL FLUCTUATIONS WILL RUN FROM 1/4 TO 3SM IN MODERATE RAIN OR
WHEN RAIN TAPERS OFF...WHILE CIGS MAY LIFT TOWARD MVFR AROUND
1-2KFT IF RAIN COMES DOWN HARD ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE LOW CIGS
SOME. ALSO IFR TO LIFR WILL OCCUR WHERE RAIN TAPERS AND FOG
REDEVELOPS THROUGH MIDDAY. OTRW LOOKING AT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
IN WIDESPREAD RAIN/FOG AND LOWER CIGS THIS MORNING.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WINDS START TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALLOWING THE WEDGE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO SLOWLY MIX
OUT. THE WEDGE SHOULD ERODE BY AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT MOST PLACES
WILL SEE CIGS IN MVFR WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF DRYING IN THE WEST. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE EAST OF KBLF/KLWB/KBCB...17-19Z...AND KROA BY
20Z...LINGERING AT LYH/DAN TIL 22Z. WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO
THE WEST AT KBLF/KLWB LATE AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
LEAST AT KBLF DURING THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTING UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP AFTER
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BRIEF VFR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. ALSO
A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR FROM KBLF TO KLWB BUT GIVEN
ISOLATED NATURE WONT INCLUDE ANY VSBYS REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT. OTRW
APPEARS MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS WILL SNEAK BACK INTO KBCB/KROA
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 OR 30 KTS ALONG THE
RIDGES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP EASTERN SITES VFR OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SOME MVFR/OCNL IFR CIGS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS AT KBLF AND KLWB
WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND FRONT...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER PATCHY EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT MORNING DUE TO MOIST GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 949 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH FEW ADDITIONS GIVEN OVERALL SLOW
RAINFALL RATES AND LESS COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH PWATS
200-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THE RAINFALL EFFICIENCY SHOULD BE HIGH
THROUGH THIS MORNING WEST AND EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION MIXING IN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AROUND MIDDAY.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR WATAGUA...ASHE AND GRAYSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 11 AM.

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING REMAINS OVER THE
WEST INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE AND MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVING UP
THE WESTERN SLOPES BEFORE HEADING EAST LATER THIS MORNING.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH MAIN STEM RIVERS AND THE HEADWATERS...LIKE
UPPER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER. PRESENTLY...THE DAN RIVER FROM
DANVILLE...DOWNSTREAM TO SOUTH BOSTON IS FAVORED TO GO TO NEAR
FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING...IF THE RAINFALL OF ANOTHER INCH
OR SO PANS OUT THROUGH LATER TODAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-010-
     012>017-022>024-032>035-045>047.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH/KK/WP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 607 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND
PASS OFFSHORE TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE ONGOING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER
AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

FLOOD THREAT REMAINS THE OVERALL CONCERN AT LEAST INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS TO THE NW THIS
MORNING. ONCE THIS FEATURE WORKS TO THE NORTH...SHOULD SEE THE TRAILING
SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SURGE EAST...AIDED BY THE PIVOTING 5H UPPER
SYSTEM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE SPED UP
THE TIMING OF EXITING THE HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE WEST BY MIDDAY AND
OUT EAST A FEW HOURS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE A BIT QUICK.
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WILL GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHALLOW CONVECTION
WITHIN THE AXIS OF STEADY RAIN AS SO FAR THE WEDGE HAS PRECLUDED
THIS WITH RAINFALL RATES ON THE LOW SIDE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
ONLY SLOW RISES ON AREA STREAMS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO HINT AT PERIODIC CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS BUT MAINLY ON THE WESTERN SLOPES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY TRYING TO
MAKE A RUN BY MID AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE ALSO CUT BACK ON THE ADDED QPF
OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THE WATCH IN PLACE WITH HEAVIEST QPF STILL OVER THE FAR WEST/SW
WHERE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH
AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE PER THE LATEST ECMWF. GIVEN FASTER
TRENDS ALSO PLAN TO CUT BACK POPS A BIT FASTER AFTER THIS MORNING
OVER THE WEST AND PIEDMONT BEFORE SUNSET. HIGH TEMPS TRICKY WITH
THE WEDGE LINGERING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP
EXODUS WHICH COULD ALLOW A QUICK SPIKE IN VALUES BEFORE THE ACTUAL
FRONT CROSSES FROM THE WEST LATER. MOST MOS NEAR OR ABOVE 60 FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST SO BUMPED UP VALUES MOST LOCATIONS INCLUDING
THE FAR WEST WHERE ALREADY IN THE 50S IN SPOTS.

DECENT 85H FRONT WILL CROSS THE FAR WEST BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE
REST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK UPTICK IN
COLD ADVECTION INCLUDING GUSTY NW WINDS...AND UPSLOPE DRIVEN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WESTERN SLOPES WHILE AIDING DOWNSLOPE CLEARING OUT EAST. COULD
BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS NC MOUNTAINS PER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
QUICK DROP IN 85H TEMPS BUT GIVEN ONLY 40 KTS AT 85H WILL HOLD JUST
BELOW WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS RIGHT NEAR DAYBREAK THU. APPEARS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OUT
WEST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT COATING AT ELEVATION
FAR NW DESPITE A WET/WARM GROUND AND GUSTY WINDS. OTRW WILL HAVE
THE TYPICAL SPLIT IN SPILLOVER LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND CLEAR OUT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY 30S EXCEPT ONLY
AROUND 40 PIEDMONT PENDING THE DEGREE OF MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH TRANSIENT SPLIT
FLOW CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND GIVES WAY TO RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BRING A FEW DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE
REGION...SAVE FOR BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THAT WILL
BE DISSIPATING THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS STARTING
OUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...THEN RISING TO SEASONAL
LEVELS OF MIDDLE 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
WEST BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE. THE GFS CUTS OFF THE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS AN OPEN
WAVE AND PUSHES IT OUT TO SEA. IN ANY CASE ...THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS FEATURE REMAINS LIMITED...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING IN THE
EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN A SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE COAST
FROM THE GULF. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS THIS IS OVER A WEEK AWAY. THE
GFS IS WETTER THAN THE ECMWF. WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY IFR OR WORSE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING...THOUGH
SOME POCKETS OF VFR/MVFR WILL OCCUR ESPCLY AROUND KBLF/KLWB WHERE
MORE IN THE WAY OF LIGHT RAIN OUT OF MID DECK OR HIGH BASED
STRATO-CU WILL OCCUR. SW WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AROUND KBLF
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE VARIABILITY IN VSBYS BASED ON INTENSITY OF RAINFALL.
TYPICAL FLUCTUATIONS WILL RUN FROM 1/4 TO 3SM IN MODERATE RAIN OR
WHEN RAIN TAPERS OFF...WHILE CIGS MAY LIFT TOWARD MVFR AROUND
1-2KFT IF RAIN COMES DOWN HARD ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE LOW CIGS
SOME. ALSO IFR TO LIFR WILL OCCUR WHERE RAIN TAPERS AND FOG
REDEVELOPS THROUGH MIDDAY. OTRW LOOKING AT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
IN WIDESPREAD RAIN/FOG AND LOWER CIGS THIS MORNING.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WINDS START TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALLOWING THE WEDGE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO SLOWLY MIX
OUT. THE WEDGE SHOULD ERODE BY AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT MOST PLACES
WILL SEE CIGS IN MVFR WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF DRYING IN THE WEST. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE EAST OF KBLF/KLWB/KBCB...17-19Z...AND KROA BY
20Z...LINGERING AT LYH/DAN TIL 22Z. WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO
THE WEST AT KBLF/KLWB LATE AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
LEAST AT KBLF DURING THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTING UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP AFTER
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BRIEF VFR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. ALSO
A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR FROM KBLF TO KLWB BUT GIVEN
ISOLATED NATURE WONT INCLUDE ANY VSBYS REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT. OTRW
APPEARS MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS WILL SNEAK BACK INTO KBCB/KROA
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 OR 30 KTS ALONG THE
RIDGES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP EASTERN SITES VFR OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SOME MVFR/OCNL IFR CIGS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS AT KBLF AND KLWB
WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND FRONT...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER PATCHY EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT MORNING DUE TO MOIST GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 245 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH FEW ADDITIONS GIVEN OVERALL SLOW
RAINFALL RATES AND LESS COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH PWATS
200-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THE RAINFALL EFFICIENCY SHOULD BE HIGH
THROUGH THIS MORNING WEST AND EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION MIXING IN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AROUND MIDDAY. THUS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING
WILL BE OVER THE WEST INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION WITH HEAVIER
RAINFALL MOVING UP THE WESTERN SLOPES BEFORE HEADING EAST LATER
THIS MORNING.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH MAIN STEM RIVERS AND THE HEADWATERS...LIKE
UPPER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER. PRESENTLY...THE DAN RIVER FROM
DANVILLE...DOWNSTREAM TO SOUTH BOSTON IS FAVORED TO GO TO NEAR
FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING...IF THE RAINFALL OF ANOTHER INCH
OR SO PANS OUT THROUGH LATER TODAY. THEREFORE GIVEN LESS RAINFALL
ACROSS THAT BASIN SO FAR WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW MUCH ACTUALLY
FALLS BEFORE ANY FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-010-012>017-
     022>024-032>035-045>047.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH/KK/WP





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 256 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

Our large upper low was located near Chicago at mid afternoon. Last
of the surface boundaries rotating around the low extended from
about Rantoul to Taylorville on the most recent observations, with
the snow quickly tapering off west of it. Most accumulations have
been minor as temperatures remained above freezing, but some
localized reports around an inch were received mainly along and
north of I-74. Most of this precipitation should be out of the
forecast area by 6 pm, but will carry some low PoP`s near the
Indiana border until about mid evening.

Clearing trends behind the low will be a bit tricky. Large area of
clearing was dropping southward across Iowa with some breaks in west
central and northwest Illinois. However, clouds were still more
extensive across Wisconsin. NAM humidity plots quickly scour this
out over our area by mid evening, but the RAP is much slower with a
more persistent inversion around 2500 feet. Followed a more slow
trend with the sky grids for the cloud breakup, with skies partly
cloudy by midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

The upper low will depart well to the east of Illinois on Thursday,
as ridging builds into the Midwest. Surface high pressure and much
drier air will provide quiet weather for the remainder of the week
and first half of the weekend. Clouds will clear out on Thursday,
with increasing sunshine and southerly winds fueling a warming
trend through Saturday. Highs on Thursday will reach the low to
mid 40s, but temps will climb into the low 50s by Saturday.

A relatively zonal flow will continue into next week, but there
remains differences in timing of the next wave coming out of the
Plains. The ECMWF remains progressive with the next low, bringing it
into IL on Sunday and east of IL by Monday afternoon. The GFS and
Canadian show a slower solution, with somewhat of a cut-off period
for the upper low before it passes by to the south of Illinois late
Monday and Monday night. The forecast for Sunday through Monday
night was left relatively dry, with only slight chance PoPs south of
I-70 on Sunday night, and south of our counties south of highway 50
on Monday. Any precipitation should fall as rain, with the
temperatures remaining at or above normal during that time.

Another trough of low pressure could approach for Wednesday, per the
GFS, but the ECMWF keeps that system north of IL. The overall theme
looks to be for temps at or above normal, with lows in the low to
mid 30s and highs in the upper 40s to around 50 from Monday to
Wednesday next week, along with minimal precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015

Periodic rain and snow showers will continue to move through the
TAF sites through mid afternoon, reducing visibility to 2-3 miles
at times in the heavier showers. Widespread MVFR ceilings will
continue with some local dips into IFR range, mainly at KBMI. Most
of the showers should be out of the TAF sites by 21Z as the
associated upper disturbance swings southeast of the area.

Beyond that time frame, the tricky element will be with the
ceilings. Visible satellite imagery showing a large shield of MVFR
clouds all the way into northern Wisconsin, but there is a fair
amount of breaks in the clouds wrapping around an upper low that
is currently in northern Illinois. Have slowed the clearing trend
in the previous TAF set by a few hours, with the RAP model showing
a fairly stout inversion around 2500 feet, although the NAM breaks
through it much faster.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Geelhart



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 210 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE SECOND SNOW OF THE SEASON IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. WHILE MUCH
LESS IN TOTAL AMOUNT THAN THE NOVEMBER 20-21 EVENT...THE TIMING IS
PROBLEMATIC. HAVE REFINED HOURLY FORECASTS TO GIVE DETAIL OF
EXPECTED MODERATE/HEAVIER SNOWFALL TIMING AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
SHOW THEIR HAND...THOUGH THIS IS STILL LARGELY IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS ON
GRASS SURFACES INTO THE 1 TO 2 INCH CATEGORY FOR MANY WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS PROBABLE GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE MODEST RATES. CONTINUE WITH MESSAGING IN THE SPS AND
GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS TOWARD HIGHEST IMPACTS THROUGH 10 AM AND THUS
IMPACTING COMMUTERS.

THE BROAD BUT STRONG UPPER LOW IS GYRATING OVER THE
WI/MN/IA/NORTHERN IL REGION THIS MORNING. A NOTEWORTHY EMBEDDED
VORTICITY CENTER IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MO THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AROUND DAYBREAK. ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS IS A FAVORED AREA FOR FOCUSED MORE INTENSE
ASCENT WHICH WILL OVERRIDE THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
SNOW...SPREADING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS OF 315 AM. THIS
MORE INTENSE SYNOPTIC LIFT LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER TO
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHICH IS TIGHTENING AND ADDING
RESPONSIVE MESOSCALE LIFT...ESPECIALLY WITH CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY ABOVE THAT PER THE RAP MODEL. ALL THIS POINTS TOWARD
AN AREA/BAND OF SNOW TO INTENSIFY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THROUGH 730 AM
OR SO. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...SHIFTING
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BUT LIKELY WEAKENING SOME DURING THE 7 TO
10 AM TIME OR SO. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST INDIANA
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN OR A MIX AT ONSET...BUT SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY
TO SNOW AS DIABATIC COOLING OCCURS.

WEBCAM IMAGERY AND A FEW EARLY MORNING REPORTS ARE INDICATING QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ON GRASS. WHILE PAVEMENT HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY FREE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THUS FAR...THE HEAVIER RATES
WILL COMPENSATE FOR THAT WITH LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION IN PLACES. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY IN
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO WHERE OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATE AIR
TEMPERATURES OF 37-38 DEGREES AS OF 315 AM.

BEHIND THIS SNOW AREA...SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE COLD POCKET ALOFT
AND OTHER EMBEDDED BUT WEAKER VORTICITY MAXIMAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. COVERAGE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO UNDULATE
SOME...BUT HAVE BASICALLY KEPT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF THE DAY
FOR EASTWARD...THOUGH THE DEFINITE POPS AND HEAVIER WORDING IS IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TRY TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY MELT SOME OF THE SNOW THAT
FALLS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS CHALLENGING AS
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER YET THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL INEVITABLY KEEP SOME LARGE AREAS OF CLOUDS TOO. FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR...MID 20S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.
LINGERING CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD ABATE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

210 PM...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S
BOTH MORNINGS. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARS TO ONLY INCREASE CLOUD
COVER. ECMWF HOWEVER HAS MUCH MORE QPF BACK ACROSS IA/MN/WI SUNDAY
AND TRIES TO WORK THIS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT AS THIS TIME PERIOD APPROACHES...COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. WITH THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A BIT LOWER
THAN SATURDAY...PERHAPS ONLY MID 40S. CLOSED UPPER LOW THEN
APPEARS TO JUST MISS THE CWA TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING THIS AFTERNOON.

* MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

* NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

* LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1,000 FT LOOK TO RETURN MID TO LATE THURSDAY
  MORNING.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN TERMINAL SITES. OCCASIONAL IFR
VIS DOWN TO AROUND 1 1/2 SM AND CIGS AROUND...OR JUST BELOW 1,000 FT
ARE EXPECTED...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME A BIT GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. CIGS LOOK TO
IMPROVE TO VFR...IF NOT SCATTER OUT ALL TOGETHER FOR A PERIOD
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
IOWA...LOOK TO MOVE BACK OVER OUR AREA BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THESE CIGS COULD BE DOWN AROUND 1,000 FT.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH CIG FORECAST TODAY.

* MEDIUM ON WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

* MEDIUM WITH LOW CIGS RETURNING ON THURSDAY.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH GENERALLY SW WINDS. WINDS MAY
SHIFT TO VARIABLE/EASTERLY ON MONDAY.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...

210 PM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST
AND MERGE WITH A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER REACHING
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN
MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS INTO SATURDAY WHEN 30KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 151 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE SECOND SNOW OF THE SEASON IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. WHILE MUCH
LESS IN TOTAL AMOUNT THAN THE NOVEMBER 20-21 EVENT...THE TIMING IS
PROBLEMATIC. HAVE REFINED HOURLY FORECASTS TO GIVE DETAIL OF
EXPECTED MODERATE/HEAVIER SNOWFALL TIMING AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
SHOW THEIR HAND...THOUGH THIS IS STILL LARGELY IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS ON
GRASS SURFACES INTO THE 1 TO 2 INCH CATEGORY FOR MANY WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS PROBABLE GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE MODEST RATES. CONTINUE WITH MESSAGING IN THE SPS AND
GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS TOWARD HIGHEST IMPACTS THROUGH 10 AM AND THUS
IMPACTING COMMUTERS.

THE BROAD BUT STRONG UPPER LOW IS GYRATING OVER THE
WI/MN/IA/NORTHERN IL REGION THIS MORNING. A NOTEWORTHY EMBEDDED
VORTICITY CENTER IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MO THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AROUND DAYBREAK. ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS IS A FAVORED AREA FOR FOCUSED MORE INTENSE
ASCENT WHICH WILL OVERRIDE THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
SNOW...SPREADING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS OF 315 AM. THIS
MORE INTENSE SYNOPTIC LIFT LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER TO
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHICH IS TIGHTENING AND ADDING
RESPONSIVE MESOSCALE LIFT...ESPECIALLY WITH CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY ABOVE THAT PER THE RAP MODEL. ALL THIS POINTS TOWARD
AN AREA/BAND OF SNOW TO INTENSIFY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THROUGH 730 AM
OR SO. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...SHIFTING
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BUT LIKELY WEAKENING SOME DURING THE 7 TO
10 AM TIME OR SO. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST INDIANA
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN OR A MIX AT ONSET...BUT SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY
TO SNOW AS DIABATIC COOLING OCCURS.

WEBCAM IMAGERY AND A FEW EARLY MORNING REPORTS ARE INDICATING QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ON GRASS. WHILE PAVEMENT HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY FREE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THUS FAR...THE HEAVIER RATES
WILL COMPENSATE FOR THAT WITH LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION IN PLACES. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY IN
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO WHERE OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATE AIR
TEMPERATURES OF 37-38 DEGREES AS OF 315 AM.

BEHIND THIS SNOW AREA...SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE COLD POCKET ALOFT
AND OTHER EMBEDDED BUT WEAKER VORTICITY MAXIMAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. COVERAGE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO UNDULATE
SOME...BUT HAVE BASICALLY KEPT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF THE DAY
FOR EASTWARD...THOUGH THE DEFINITE POPS AND HEAVIER WORDING IS IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TRY TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY MELT SOME OF THE SNOW THAT
FALLS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS CHALLENGING AS
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER YET THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL INEVITABLY KEEP SOME LARGE AREAS OF CLOUDS TOO. FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR...MID 20S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.
LINGERING CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD ABATE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
329 AM CST

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES
TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND MILD...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
MILD AIR ON SATURDAY WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH LOWER TO MID 50S
AREAWIDE. WHILE NO GUIDANCE HAS THIS IN THEIR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
PREDICTIONS...CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT SUCH READINGS GIVEN THEIR
FORECAST 925MB TEMPERATURES AND DEGREE OF ANOMALIES.

THE 00Z GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD
NEAR OR INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING BUT
MUCH WEAKER/SMALLER UPPER LOW TO THE NEARBY SOUTHWEST. TOGETHER
THIS COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SATURDAY AND HAVE FAVORED THAT ROUTE.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING THIS AFTERNOON.

* MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

* NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

* LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1,000 FT LOOK TO RETURN MID TO LATE THURSDAY
  MORNING.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN TERMINAL SITES. OCCASIONAL IFR
VIS DOWN TO AROUND 1 1/2 SM AND CIGS AROUND...OR JUST BELOW 1,000 FT
ARE EXPECTED...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME A BIT GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. CIGS LOOK TO
IMPROVE TO VFR...IF NOT SCATTER OUT ALL TOGETHER FOR A PERIOD
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
IOWA...LOOK TO MOVE BACK OVER OUR AREA BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THESE CIGS COULD BE DOWN AROUND 1,000 FT.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH CIG FORECAST TODAY.

* MEDIUM ON WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

* MEDIUM WITH LOW CIGS RETURNING ON THURSDAY.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH GENERALLY SW WINDS. WINDS MAY
SHIFT TO VARIABLE/EASTERLY ON MONDAY.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
108 AM CST

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
SPREADING ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SECONDARY LOW CENTER OVER THE LAKE...MODEST PRESSURE RISES AS
THE LOW DEPARTS COULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS EAST THROUGH HUDSON BAY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL EXPAND OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY. THIS
PATTERN SUGGESTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHTER TO MODEST SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR DECEMBER
AFTER TODAYS COLD FRONT.

KMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1133 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
600 AM CST

SNOW OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS HAS INTENSIFIED PRETTY MUCH AS
ANTICIPATED. SOME TEMPORARY ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN
REPORTED AND CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AT
TIMES THROUGH 730 AM. SNOWFALL IS ACCUMULATING READILY ON GRASSY
SURFACES WITH STILL NOT MUCH HAVING BEEN REPORTED ON PAVED
SURFACES...INCLUDING UP NEAR WOODSTOCK WHERE AN ISOLATED TOTAL OF
3.5 INCHES WAS REPORTED FROM ONE OF OUR OBSERVERS.

THESE ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE NOT ONLY AIDED BY HEAVIER RATES BUT ALSO LARGER
SNOWFLAKES. A RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM ORD INDICATED WIND
SPEEDS LIGHTER THAN 10 KT ALL THE WAY UP TO 3500 FT INDICATING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FRAGMENTING ALLOWING FOR LARGER FLAKES TO
REACH THE GROUND...WHICH WE OBSERVED HERE AT THE WFO FOR A PERIOD.
THE SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED A PRONOUNCED ISOTHERMAL PROFILE NEAR
-5C...LIKELY RIGHT WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETIC LAYER...AND THIS IS
ALL UNDERNEATH A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH AREA. ALTOGETHER THIS
IS ALLOWING FOR LARGER FLAKES TO BE MIXED IN OR EVEN BE
DOMINANT...ALLOWING FOR QUICKER RATES AND SOME HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE PAVEMENT ACCUMULATION WILL BE MUCH LESS WITH
STILL ONLY SOME LIGHT SLUSH ANTICIPATED /AND HARDLY ANY REPORTED
YET/...THE TIMING CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE COMMUTE WITH LOW
VISIBILITY...SO WE CONTINUE THAT MESSAGE WITHIN OUR FORECAST.

MTF

&&

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE SECOND SNOW OF THE SEASON IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. WHILE MUCH
LESS IN TOTAL AMOUNT THAN THE NOVEMBER 20-21 EVENT...THE TIMING IS
PROBLEMATIC. HAVE REFINED HOURLY FORECASTS TO GIVE DETAIL OF
EXPECTED MODERATE/HEAVIER SNOWFALL TIMING AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
SHOW THEIR HAND...THOUGH THIS IS STILL LARGELY IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS ON
GRASS SURFACES INTO THE 1 TO 2 INCH CATEGORY FOR MANY WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS PROBABLE GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE MODEST RATES. CONTINUE WITH MESSAGING IN THE SPS AND
GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS TOWARD HIGHEST IMPACTS THROUGH 10 AM AND THUS
IMPACTING COMMUTERS.

THE BROAD BUT STRONG UPPER LOW IS GYRATING OVER THE
WI/MN/IA/NORTHERN IL REGION THIS MORNING. A NOTEWORTHY EMBEDDED
VORTICITY CENTER IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MO THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AROUND DAYBREAK. ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS IS A FAVORED AREA FOR FOCUSED MORE INTENSE
ASCENT WHICH WILL OVERRIDE THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
SNOW...SPREADING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS OF 315 AM. THIS
MORE INTENSE SYNOPTIC LIFT LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER TO
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHICH IS TIGHTENING AND ADDING
RESPONSIVE MESOSCALE LIFT...ESPECIALLY WITH CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY ABOVE THAT PER THE RAP MODEL. ALL THIS POINTS TOWARD
AN AREA/BAND OF SNOW TO INTENSIFY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THROUGH 730 AM
OR SO. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...SHIFTING
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BUT LIKELY WEAKENING SOME DURING THE 7 TO
10 AM TIME OR SO. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST INDIANA
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN OR A MIX AT ONSET...BUT SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY
TO SNOW AS DIABATIC COOLING OCCURS.

WEBCAM IMAGERY AND A FEW EARLY MORNING REPORTS ARE INDICATING QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ON GRASS. WHILE PAVEMENT HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY FREE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THUS FAR...THE HEAVIER RATES
WILL COMPENSATE FOR THAT WITH LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION IN PLACES. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY IN
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO WHERE OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATE AIR
TEMPERATURES OF 37-38 DEGREES AS OF 315 AM.

BEHIND THIS SNOW AREA...SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE COLD POCKET ALOFT
AND OTHER EMBEDDED BUT WEAKER VORTICITY MAXIMAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. COVERAGE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO UNDULATE
SOME...BUT HAVE BASICALLY KEPT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF THE DAY
FOR EASTWARD...THOUGH THE DEFINITE POPS AND HEAVIER WORDING IS IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TRY TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY MELT SOME OF THE SNOW THAT
FALLS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS CHALLENGING AS
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER YET THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL INEVITABLY KEEP SOME LARGE AREAS OF CLOUDS TOO. FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR...MID 20S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.
LINGERING CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD ABATE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
329 AM CST

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES
TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND MILD...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
MILD AIR ON SATURDAY WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH LOWER TO MID 50S
AREAWIDE. WHILE NO GUIDANCE HAS THIS IN THEIR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
PREDICTIONS...CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT SUCH READINGS GIVEN THEIR
FORECAST 925MB TEMPERATURES AND DEGREE OF ANOMALIES.

THE 00Z GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD
NEAR OR INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING BUT
MUCH WEAKER/SMALLER UPPER LOW TO THE NEARBY SOUTHWEST. TOGETHER
THIS COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SATURDAY AND HAVE FAVORED THAT ROUTE.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH IFR VIS LIKELY AT
  TIMES.

* LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

* NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

* LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1,000 FT LOOK TO RETURN MID TO LATE THURSDAY
  MORNING.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN TERMINAL SITES. OCCASIONAL IFR
VIS DOWN TO AROUND 1 1/2 SM AND CIGS AROUND...OR JUST BELOW 1,000 FT
ARE EXPECTED...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME A BIT GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. CIGS LOOK TO
IMPROVE TO VFR...IF NOT SCATTER OUT ALL TOGETHER FOR A PERIOD
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
IOWA...LOOK TO MOVE BACK OVER OUR AREA BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THESE CIGS COULD BE DOWN AROUND 1,000 FT.

KJB


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH IN OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS TODAY.

* MEDIUM-HIGH IN LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM ON WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

* MEDIUM WITH LOW CIGS RETURNING ON THURSDAY.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH GENERALLY SW WINDS. WINDS MAY
SHIFT TO VARIABLE/EASTERLY ON MONDAY.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
108 AM CST

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
SPREADING ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SECONDARY LOW CENTER OVER THE LAKE...MODEST PRESSURE RISES AS
THE LOW DEPARTS COULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS EAST THROUGH HUDSON BAY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL EXPAND OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY. THIS
PATTERN SUGGESTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHTER TO MODEST SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR DECEMBER
AFTER TODAYS COLD FRONT.

KMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1013 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

600 AM CST

SNOW OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS HAS INTENSIFIED PRETTY MUCH AS
ANTICIPATED. SOME TEMPORARY ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN
REPORTED AND CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AT
TIMES THROUGH 730 AM. SNOWFALL IS ACCUMULATING READILY ON GRASSY
SURFACES WITH STILL NOT MUCH HAVING BEEN REPORTED ON PAVED
SURFACES...INCLUDING UP NEAR WOODSTOCK WHERE AN ISOLATED TOTAL OF
3.5 INCHES WAS REPORTED FROM ONE OF OUR OBSERVERS.

THESE ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE NOT ONLY AIDED BY HEAVIER RATES BUT ALSO LARGER
SNOWFLAKES. A RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM ORD INDICATED WIND
SPEEDS LIGHTER THAN 10 KT ALL THE WAY UP TO 3500 FT INDICATING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FRAGMENTING ALLOWING FOR LARGER FLAKES TO
REACH THE GROUND...WHICH WE OBSERVED HERE AT THE WFO FOR A PERIOD.
THE SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED A PRONOUNCED ISOTHERMAL PROFILE NEAR
-5C...LIKELY RIGHT WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETIC LAYER...AND THIS IS
ALL UNDERNEATH A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH AREA. ALTOGETHER THIS
IS ALLOWING FOR LARGER FLAKES TO BE MIXED IN OR EVEN BE
DOMINANT...ALLOWING FOR QUICKER RATES AND SOME HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE PAVEMENT ACCUMULATION WILL BE MUCH LESS WITH
STILL ONLY SOME LIGHT SLUSH ANTICIPATED /AND HARDLY ANY REPORTED
YET/...THE TIMING CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE COMMUTE WITH LOW
VISIBILITY...SO WE CONTINUE THAT MESSAGE WITHIN OUR FORECAST.

MTF

&&

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE SECOND SNOW OF THE SEASON IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. WHILE MUCH
LESS IN TOTAL AMOUNT THAN THE NOVEMBER 20-21 EVENT...THE TIMING IS
PROBLEMATIC. HAVE REFINED HOURLY FORECASTS TO GIVE DETAIL OF
EXPECTED MODERATE/HEAVIER SNOWFALL TIMING AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
SHOW THEIR HAND...THOUGH THIS IS STILL LARGELY IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS ON
GRASS SURFACES INTO THE 1 TO 2 INCH CATEGORY FOR MANY WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS PROBABLE GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE MODEST RATES. CONTINUE WITH MESSAGING IN THE SPS AND
GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS TOWARD HIGHEST IMPACTS THROUGH 10 AM AND THUS
IMPACTING COMMUTERS.

THE BROAD BUT STRONG UPPER LOW IS GYRATING OVER THE
WI/MN/IA/NORTHERN IL REGION THIS MORNING. A NOTEWORTHY EMBEDDED
VORTICITY CENTER IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MO THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AROUND DAYBREAK. ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS IS A FAVORED AREA FOR FOCUSED MORE INTENSE
ASCENT WHICH WILL OVERRIDE THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
SNOW...SPREADING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS OF 315 AM. THIS
MORE INTENSE SYNOPTIC LIFT LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER TO
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHICH IS TIGHTENING AND ADDING
RESPONSIVE MESOSCALE LIFT...ESPECIALLY WITH CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY ABOVE THAT PER THE RAP MODEL. ALL THIS POINTS TOWARD
AN AREA/BAND OF SNOW TO INTENSIFY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THROUGH 730 AM
OR SO. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS...SHIFTING
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BUT LIKELY WEAKENING SOME DURING THE 7 TO
10 AM TIME OR SO. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST INDIANA
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN OR A MIX AT ONSET...BUT SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY
TO SNOW AS DIABATIC COOLING OCCURS.

WEBCAM IMAGERY AND A FEW EARLY MORNING REPORTS ARE INDICATING QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ON GRASS. WHILE PAVEMENT HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY FREE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THUS FAR...THE HEAVIER RATES
WILL COMPENSATE FOR THAT WITH LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION IN PLACES. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY IN
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO WHERE OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATE AIR
TEMPERATURES OF 37-38 DEGREES AS OF 315 AM.

BEHIND THIS SNOW AREA...SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE COLD POCKET ALOFT
AND OTHER EMBEDDED BUT WEAKER VORTICITY MAXIMAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. COVERAGE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO UNDULATE
SOME...BUT HAVE BASICALLY KEPT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF THE DAY
FOR EASTWARD...THOUGH THE DEFINITE POPS AND HEAVIER WORDING IS IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TRY TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY MELT SOME OF THE SNOW THAT
FALLS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS CHALLENGING AS
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER YET THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL INEVITABLY KEEP SOME LARGE AREAS OF CLOUDS TOO. FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR...MID 20S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.
LINGERING CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD ABATE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
329 AM CST

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES
TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND MILD...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
MILD AIR ON SATURDAY WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH LOWER TO MID 50S
AREAWIDE. WHILE NO GUIDANCE HAS THIS IN THEIR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
PREDICTIONS...CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT SUCH READINGS GIVEN THEIR
FORECAST 925MB TEMPERATURES AND DEGREE OF ANOMALIES.

THE 00Z GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD
NEAR OR INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING BUT
MUCH WEAKER/SMALLER UPPER LOW TO THE NEARBY SOUTHWEST. TOGETHER
THIS COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SATURDAY AND HAVE FAVORED THAT ROUTE.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH IFR TO LIFR VIS LIKELY
  AT TIMES.

* LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

* NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

KMD/KB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

SNOWFALL RATES HAVE PICKED UP CONSIDERABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST AND INTERACTING WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE SEEN VERY INFREQUENT 3/4SM VSBYS IN THE
HEAVIEST RATES AT BOTH KPWK AND KUGN AND NOW AT KPA...BUT MOST
AREAS HAVE NOT GOTTEN LOWER THAN 1SM. CIGS ARE A MIX OF LOW MVFR
WHERE SNOW HAS NOT BEEN FALLING AS LONG TO LIFR FARTHER WEST.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAX INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING NOW AND THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WILL HOLD THE TEMPO 3/4SM AT
ORD AND 1SM AT KMDW. VSBYS COULD BE BRIEFLY LOWER THAN THOSE
INDICATED IN THE TAF WITH 1 MINUTE DATA AT KORD JUST RECENTLY
COMING IN WITH THE FIRST OBSERVATION OF 1/2SM. ACCUMS ON PAVEMENT
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAYBE SOME LIGHT SLUSHY ACCUMS.

AFTER THIS SNOW BAND MOVES INTO NW INDIANA...EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT TO
MVFR OR POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE AS WELL. THERE
IS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LAGGING BEHIND THIS SNOW
BAND BY A FEW HOURS. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST MVFR AND EVEN IFR VSBY
IN THESE SHOWERS...THOUGH THEY MAY GET LESS ORGANIZED AS THEY
SHIFT SE. CIGS LIKELY SETTLE BACK TO MVFR. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A
TEMPO FOR THE LATER MORNING HOURS WITH AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH.

WINDS SHOULD LARGELY BE SW SHIFTING TO W AND THEN NW THROUGH THE DAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH WE MAY TAP SOME MID
TEENS GUSTS IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO
NW AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE. WE KEEP A NW WIND THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE MIXED AS TO WHETHER CIGS ARE SCT OR BROKEN.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH IN OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS TODAY.

* MEDIUM-HIGH IN LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM ON WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KMD/KB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH GENERALLY SW WINDS. WINDS MAY
SHIFT TO VARIABLE/EASTERLY ON MONDAY.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
108 AM CST

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
SPREADING ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SECONDARY LOW CENTER OVER THE LAKE...MODEST PRESSURE RISES AS
THE LOW DEPARTS COULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS EAST THROUGH HUDSON BAY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL EXPAND OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY. THIS
PATTERN SUGGESTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHTER TO MODEST SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR DECEMBER
AFTER TODAYS COLD FRONT.

KMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 338 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW AROUND THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO NEXT WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

SCATTERED SNOW /AND SOME RAIN/ SHOWERS WERE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW WAS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...THESE SHOWERS WILL WORK THERE WAY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE 00Z. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT EXPECT SNOW
TO BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS COLDER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN.

AT 00Z...HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS STILL SHOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE DERIVED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER STILL INDICATES THE
THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.

THUS WILL RAISE MOS POPS AND GO CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ALL AREAS AT
00Z. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND END THESE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND
THE LOW. MOS IS USUALLY TOO FAST WITH CLEARING SO WENT A LITTLE
SLOWER...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE
SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO STILL GET DOWN TO MOS NUMBERS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

FOCUS IS ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND WAS USED.

STILL EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
IN DURING THE DAY...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH. THE INCREASING
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO GET NEAR MOS NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT EVEN MORE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

MAV MOS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING AND
POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION.

ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN
PLACE ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PROMOTING A DRY COLUMN. BY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST AN
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TO
APPALACHIA. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS
WARRANTED...BUT SUPERBLEND KEEPS ALL POPS LESS THAN 20. THUS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST OVERALL FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE POPS INCREASE AS THIS FORECAST PROGRESSES DUE TO
THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

2030Z UPDATE...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS...CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND LOWER AT TIMES
IN SOME OF THE MORE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS. BASED ON THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z AND UPDATED MANY OF THE TERMINALS TO REFLECT CURRENT MVFR
TRENDS AND ADDED AN IFR TEMPO GROUP FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR ONCE THE SNOW SHOWERS ABATE
LATER THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...POISED
TO PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HRRR INDICATES THAT THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST BY 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
BEST FORCING ENDING BY 00Z. THUS HAVE MENTION PREVAILING PRECIP
UNTIL THIS TIME...TAPERING OFF MAINLY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY THE LOWER PARTS OF THE COLUMN
AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS SOME
TRAPPED MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...SMF/PUMA




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW AROUND THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO NEXT WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

SCATTERED SNOW /AND SOME RAIN/ SHOWERS WERE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW WAS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...THESE SHOWERS WILL WORK THERE WAY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE 00Z. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT EXPECT SNOW
TO BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS COLDER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN.

AT 00Z...HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS STILL SHOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE DERIVED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER STILL INDICATES THE
THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.

THUS WILL RAISE MOS POPS AND GO CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ALL AREAS AT
00Z. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND END THESE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND
THE LOW. MOS IS USUALLY TOO FAST WITH CLEARING SO WENT A LITTLE
SLOWER...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE
SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO STILL GET DOWN TO MOS NUMBERS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

FOCUS IS ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND WAS USED.

STILL EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
IN DURING THE DAY...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH. THE INCREASING
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO GET NEAR MOS NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT EVEN MORE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

MAV MOS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING AND
POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION.

ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN
PLACE ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PROMOTING A DRY COLUMN. BY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST AN
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TO
APPALACHIA. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS
WARRANTED...BUT SUPERBLEND KEEPS ALL POPS LESS THAN 20. THUS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST OVERALL FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE POPS INCREASE AS THIS FORECAST PROGRESSES DUE TO
THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...POISED
TO PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HRRR INDICATES THAT THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST BY 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
BEST FORCING ENDING BY 00Z. THUS HAVE MENTION PREVAILING PRECIP
UNTIL THIS TIME...TAPERING OFF MAINLY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY THE LOWER PARTS OF THE COLUMN
AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS SOME
TRAPPED MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 202 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

A PRECIP MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT MAINLY
SNOW...WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS WILL RECEIVE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW AND JUST RAIN. THE DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT
TONIGHT...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW ENTERS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 939 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA AT THE MOMENT. 850MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS HELPING PRODUCE
THIS BAND. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS...IT APPEARS
THAT THIS IS JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TWEAKED POPS
BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE MORE ADJUSTMENTS LATER AS SHORT TERM MODELS
HINTING AT MORE COVERAGE SOUTH. ALSO BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...RAISED POPS A BIT DURING THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO SLOWER
TIMING.

MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO TEMPERATURES FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP TYPE AND
TIMING AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH DRY SLOT OVER MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH WED 12Z. HOWEVER...AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW DIPS FARTHER INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM WEST TO EAST. FORCING REMAINS WEAK IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...BUT Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN THE 700-500MB LAYERS IS
QUITE IMPRESSIVE FROM WED 12Z-21Z. AS A RESULT...LIKELY POPS ARE
STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD INITIALLY START OUT IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP FROM -1C TO -9C THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMER
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THAT AREA THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST...FORCING WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
BY THIS EVENING. WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD START SEEING SOME
CLEARING AS EARLY AS THU 00Z WITH PRECIP ENDING ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY MIDNIGHT. AS TEMPS DROP IN THE LOWER LEVELS
THIS EVENING...THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES CAN EXPECT RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN/SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT WITH ALL SNOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND A
HALF-INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

TRENDED TOWARD MET MOS GUIDANCE FOR DURATION OF NEAR TERM SINCE IT
WAS COOLER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR TONIGHT/S
LOWS/WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY LINGERING CLOUDS/. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. SO...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH A WEAK WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE LOW 40S FOR THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S BY THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 20S. STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING AND
POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION.

ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN
PLACE ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PROMOTING A DRY COLUMN. BY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST AN
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TO
APPALACHIA. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS
WARRANTED...BUT SUPERBLEND KEEPS ALL POPS LESS THAN 20. THUS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST OVERALL FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE POPS INCREASE AS THIS FORECAST PROGRESSES DUE TO
THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...POISED
TO PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HRRR INDICATES THAT THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST BY 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
BEST FORCING ENDING BY 00Z. THUS HAVE MENTION PREVAILING PRECIP
UNTIL THIS TIME...TAPERING OFF MAINLY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY THE LOWER PARTS OF THE COLUMN
AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS SOME
TRAPPED MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/50
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1235 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

A PRECIP MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT MAINLY
SNOW...WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS WILL RECEIVE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW AND JUST RAIN. THE DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT
TONIGHT...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW ENTERS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 939 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA AT THE MOMENT. 850MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS HELPING PRODUCE
THIS BAND. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS...IT APPEARS
THAT THIS IS JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TWEAKED POPS
BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE MORE ADJUSTMENTS LATER AS SHORT TERM MODELS
HINTING AT MORE COVERAGE SOUTH. ALSO BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...RAISED POPS A BIT DURING THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO SLOWER
TIMING.

MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO TEMPERATURES FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP TYPE AND
TIMING AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH DRY SLOT OVER MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH WED 12Z. HOWEVER...AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW DIPS FARTHER INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM WEST TO EAST. FORCING REMAINS WEAK IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...BUT Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN THE 700-500MB LAYERS IS
QUITE IMPRESSIVE FROM WED 12Z-21Z. AS A RESULT...LIKELY POPS ARE
STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD INITIALLY START OUT IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP FROM -1C TO -9C THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMER
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THAT AREA THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST...FORCING WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
BY THIS EVENING. WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD START SEEING SOME
CLEARING AS EARLY AS THU 00Z WITH PRECIP ENDING ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY MIDNIGHT. AS TEMPS DROP IN THE LOWER LEVELS
THIS EVENING...THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES CAN EXPECT RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN/SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT WITH ALL SNOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND A
HALF-INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

TRENDED TOWARD MET MOS GUIDANCE FOR DURATION OF NEAR TERM SINCE IT
WAS COOLER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR TONIGHT/S
LOWS/WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY LINGERING CLOUDS/. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. SO...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH A WEAK WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE LOW 40S FOR THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S BY THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 20S. STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015

ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A MILD AND DRY WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
PER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGH CLOUDS IN
FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES
TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER SUPPORTS THE ABOVE
NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BLEND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOK OK.

THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WERE HAVE ISSUES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE EURO IS CONTINUING
ITS FASTER TREND WITH THE TROUGH. THE GEFS WAS AN IN BETWEEN
COMPROMISE. MEANWHILE...THE POPS OF THE REGIONAL BLEND SEEMED TO
FAVOR THE FASTER EURO AND GEFS. THE 00Z ECMWF AND REGIONAL BLEND
BOTH HAVE SMALL POPS/QPF ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SMALL POPS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH.
WITH THE MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND FAVOR ALL RAIN
SHOWERS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE DRY WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...POISED
TO PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HRRR INDICATES THAT THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST BY 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
BEST FORCING ENDING BY 00Z. THUS HAVE MENTION PREVAILING PRECIP
UNTIL THIS TIME...TAPERING OFF MAINLY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY THE LOWER PARTS OF THE COLUMN
AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS SOME
TRAPPED MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/50
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JP



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
557 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 552 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015

Just a few showers are left over from the rounds of precipitation
that moved through this afternoon. There were multiple reports of
graupel with these showers and some areas across the Bluegrass could
still see some of this over the next hour or two. The next area of
precipitation to move in is currently located over southwestern IN
and east central IL. Thinking remains largely the same with this
moving into southern IN counties between 00-01Z. Models then have it
weakening as the evening goes on. Recent AMDAR soundings from SDF do
show steep low level lapse rates up to -10 to -11C so snow showers
will certainly be a possibility. However, do not expect anything but
a dusting at best and briefly reduced visibilities from this
activity.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015

Main forecast concern this period is precip type with showers
expected ahead of an upper low now dropping south-southeast across
northern Illinois. The center of this feature will be over the
central IL/IN border by 00Z, and model soundings continue to show
our north and northeast zones saturated just up to the dendritic
growth zone, especially the latest NAM. The GFS and RUC are not as
robust, but given possibility and the axis of coldest temperatures
aloft swinging through at that point have kept in the snow or rain
shower chances through the evening hours. Given breezy conditions,
would not be surprised to see some briefly lower vsby in any heavier
snow showers across our northeast.

High pressure will build in slowly from the west for Thursday and
Thursday night, making for temperatures a little below
normal...though skies will be sunnier compared to the last few days.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015

High pressure will be over us Friday and then just to our east
Saturday. For Sunday and upper low moves across the Central Plains.
Forecast models, not surprisingly, differ in timing of this low
moving towards our region, with the 00Z Euro and the latest GEM
showing it right over our longitude by Monday morning, whereas the
GFS slows the low down and moves it into Deep South. The first camp
would bring precip in here Sunday night, whereas the latter holds it
off until Monday night. The 00Z GEFS has a high spread toward the
Euro and GEM solution, so have to keep in some pops Sunday night.

After that system, and assuming the Euro/GEM solution is the correct
choice, the next system drops into the Central Plains Wednesday.
There should be enough distance between these two systems to
preclude precip chances advertised by the GFS (which given it`s
slower solution has the two phasing a little and keeping enough
moisture around to generater rain chances). Will go dry for
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 552 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015

First round of rain showers, and a few ice pellets, will quickly
move east of LEX over the next hour. Meanwhile, a second upper
disturbance and frontal boundary will approach the TAF sites from
the NW. Expect another potential round of light showers and/or light
snow with this last batch at SDF/LEX. Best timing looks to be
between 11 PM and 1 AM EST at SDF, and between Midnight and 3 AM EST
at LEX. Most of the activity should be north of those two sites, so
will only mention VCSH for now. Some MVFR ceilings could accompany
this brief disturbance.

Otherwise, winds have settled a bit out of the west between 10 and
15 mph. However, a secondary batch of gusts up around 20 mph is
expected with the second front for a few hours. Winds slacken and
veer to a more NW component in the pre-dawn hours fo Thursday.

Expect clear skies and light NW winds on Thursday.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......BJS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

 231 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 214 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

It appears the GFS is/has been modeling the low layer cloud
field/embedded pcpn pertaining to the wrap around spiral bands
rotating south of the Low track today. A close examination of the
GFS20 vs the NAM12 Modeled Sounding data reveals this in better
detail, and the net effect will be a sliver of isolated pops for
our northern most tier of counties/partial counties for snow
showers this evening/early night. Amounts should be miniscule and
melt upon grounding.

After tonight, dry/cold air advection more firmly overtakes the
entire atmospheric column, as surface High pressure anchors across
the Commonwealth. This will lead to 40s tmrw, again
Friday/approaching 50, with mainly upper half 20s/nr 30 each
night through the remainder of the work week.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

At the beginning of the extended period, high pressure at the sfc
and aloft over the PAH forecast area will begin to give way to srly
low level flow ahead of a developing mid level shrtwv trof.

The forward speed and evolution of the trof continues to be in
question by the med range models as it is shown to dive into the
central Plains midway through the weekend. Some model solutions
suggest an fast open wave (UKMET) and some favor a slower closed
low. The deterministic 12Z GFS had an especially srly, slow, and
deep solution, which affected the initialization blend all the way
into Tue. The GFS ensemble means even had a closed low in the data
by early Mon. WPC appeared to gravitate toward a faster, ensemble-
mean-dominated trend. Sfc reflection is limited, and it is an
educated guess as to what the sfc wind fields will look like from
Sun through Tue.

For this forecast package, due to timing/coverage uncertainty in the
pcpn fields, we will go with no more than slight chances of rain
showers for most of the region Sun through Mon, with just a sliver
of PoP remaining in the srn Pennyrile Mon night. This was only a
modest deviation from the initialization blend, in fact. Dry weather
is forecast beyond Mon night, with not a whole lot of change in the
near-seasonable temps with time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 214 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

Model Soundings reveal sharp lapse rates in the boundary layer, up
to about 4-5K FT AGL, and this has helped bouy moistened parcels
into scattered low VFR decks with occasional bkn-ovc cigs this
pm. More extensive cyclone induced wrap around MVFR cigs will
threaten overnight, with the potential for a brief period of light
frozen pcpn restricting vsbys to MVFR at KEVV/KOWB. W-NW flow
will continue with occasional diurnal gustiness.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
300 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015

Main forecast concern this period is precip type with showers
expected ahead of an upper low now dropping south-southeast across
northern Illinois. The center of this feature will be over the
central IL/IN border by 00Z, and model soundings continue to show
our north and northeast zones saturated just up to the dendritic
growth zone, especially the latest NAM. The GFS and RUC are not as
robust, but given possibility and the axis of coldest temperatures
aloft swinging through at that point have kept in the snow or rain
shower chances through the evening hours. Given breezy conditions,
would not be surprised to see some briefly lower vsby in any heavier
snow showers across our northeast.

High pressure will build in slowly from the west for Thursday and
Thursday night, making for temperatures a little below
normal...though skies will be sunnier compared to the last few days.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015

High pressure will be over us Friday and then just to our east
Saturday. For Sunday and upper low moves across the Central Plains.
Forecast models, not surprisingly, differ in timing of this low
moving towards our region, with the 00Z Euro and the latest GEM
showing it right over our longitude by Monday morning, whereas the
GFS slows the low down and moves it into Deep South. The first camp
would bring precip in here Sunday night, whereas the latter holds it
off until Monday night. The 00Z GEFS has a high spread toward the
Euro and GEM solution, so have to keep in some pops Sunday night.

After that system, and assuming the Euro/GEM solution is the correct
choice, the next system drops into the Central Plains Wednesday.
There should be enough distance between these two systems to
preclude precip chances advertised by the GFS (which given it`s
slower solution has the two phasing a little and keeping enough
moisture around to generater rain chances). Will go dry for
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1222 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2015

A secondary cold front is sweeping through the TAF sites at this
hour ahead of a potent upper disturbance. Expect generally W surface
winds between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts up around 30 mph at times. A
few light sprinkles may accompany this frontal passage, but coverage
intensity are too light to cause any impacts.

Another frontal passage occurs later this evening ahead of another
upper disturbance. Won`t be much of a wind shift with this feature,
but gusty winds will continue. Additionally, some sprinkles/light
showers may transition to flurries/light snow showers during this
time. Will mention VCSH at SDF/LEX, but impacts should be pretty
low.

Ceilings are a little tricky given the mixy low levels, but have
stayed optimistic with Sct-Bkn high end MVFR/low VFR range. BWG
should stay just above MVFR/VFR threshold. Skies clear out after
Midnight from W to E, with light WNW winds and clear skies
prevailing.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........BJS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 335 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WX IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
CONTS TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
DEVELOP EAST TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR WINDS WE ARE
EXPECTING SOME PRETTY CHILLY LOWS OVER THE SNOW COVER AREAS TO
THE NORTH. ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW COVER WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING TODAY WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. THE RAP INDICATES THIS...AND THE SREF HAS SOME FAIRLY HIGH
PROBS OF LOWER VISBY OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS PATTERN
MAY AGAIN REPEAT ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND MELTING ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
THU/FRI WITH WARMER HIGHS.

A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ON FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOV ACROSS THE CWA ON LATE SAT. WE MAY SEE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE RETURN TO SEE STRATUS
DEVELOP...STARTING OVER THE WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE NIGHT
EXPANDING EWD TOWARD SAT MRNG. THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER ISN`T
OVERLY DEEP...BUT WE WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE DZ DVLP
WITHIN THIS BAND IF MOISTURE PROFILES END UP SIMILAR TO THE NAM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH THE CWA ON SAT
EVNG/NIGHT...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WE WILL CONT TO MENTION A SCHC CHC
OF RA/SN ON SAT NIGHT IN THE SOUTH...BUT LATEST TRENDS INDICATE
THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED IN COMING FORECASTS. THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS MAINLY 10 TO
15KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES...HOWEVER WITH WET GROUND/MELTING SNOW...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 1257 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM WEDNESDAY...

ONLY VERY PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS OBSERVED IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS
LATE MORNING APPROACHED...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED GOOD DIFFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AHEAD OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE...EVEN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...TO GENERALLY
AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH NUMEROUS TO AT
TIMES MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS COULD
BE QUITE SCATTERED FOR A WHILE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS ARE NEAR AN INCH
AT BEST AS OF THIS WRITING...AND FARTHEST FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-
LEVEL JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY NOT OCCUR THERE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE CATEGORICAL
CHANCES FOR THAT AREA INTO THE EVENING AS THE RAP FORECASTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ACTUALLY INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY 00Z OR SO.

700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL ON RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALOFT WARMS A LITTLE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER SEEMS REMOTE. 0-3KM MLCAPE BASICALLY ONLY REGISTERS NEAR AND
OFFSHORE...COINCIDENT WITH THE SPC OUTLOOK...BUT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND MUCAPE BETWEEN ABOUT 100 AND
300J/KG AREAWIDE...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AS 700MB TEMPERATURES COOL. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS HIGHS ARE FORECAST ON THE LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE BUT
LIKE THE TREND FOR NOW THOUGH PARTS OF THE TRIAD IN PARTICULAR COULD
END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER WITH KGSO IN THE UPPER 50S ALREADY
AS OF THIS WRITING. OVERNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS
THROUGH CENTRAL NC FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z THURSDAY.
DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH PROBABLY PRETTY LIMITED
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE TRIAD BY 02Z...TRIANGLE BY AROUND
05Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED LOW OVER AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY AS POST-FRONTAL COLD DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY. CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
SUPPORT A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NC. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG/TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO START THE DAY WILL QUICKLY RELAX BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT TO SEE THE STRONGEST NWLY WIND GUSTS BY
LUNCHTIME...IN THE 22 TO 25KT RANGE...DIMINISHING INTO THE TEENS BY
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE LONG TERM LOOK VERY PLEASANT AS A STRONG
1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH VERY WEAK FLOW
ALOFT. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE ENTIRE COLUMN IS VERY DRY
WITH A PARCHED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.15-0.25 INCHES ON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AND THEREFORE EXPECT AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW CLOUDS SNEAKING IN ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MIGRATES TO THE EAST AND COMES INTO A LITTLE BIT
BETTER POSITIONING FOR COLD AIR DAMMING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
OF THE ATLANTIC INCREASES SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE FIRST SYSTEM OF CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
AND BEGINS MOVING UP THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
TRACK EASTWARD. AS THESE TWO SYSTEM GET CLOSER TO EACH OTHER THEY
WILL RESEMBLE A MILLER B PATTERN (LACKING A SURFACE LOW UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WEST) MOVING UP THE COAST. DEPENDING ON
TIMING...THE WESTERN LOW COULD GET INGESTED INTO THE COASTAL LOW
(GFS SOLUTION) OR THE WESTERN LOW COULD BE TOO LATE TO CATCH UP WITH
THE FIRST (ECMWF SOLUTION). REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS OUT
THE UPSHOT FOR CENTRAL NC SHOULD BE THE SAME...INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND CLEARING OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY QUESTION IS IF THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL COME ON
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS COME IN MUCH SLOWER
AND HOLDS OFF THE RAIN CHANCES UNTIL TUESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES
THE SYSTEM THROUGH MUCH EARLIER WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON MONDAY
AND CLEARING OUT ON TUESDAY BEFORE IT HAS THE SYSTEM BOMBING OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AS IT STEAMS TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. TO ALLOW FOR
SOME WIGGLE ROOM...WILL INTRODUCE POPS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AND BACKING OFF BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THIS TIME WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES MORE PROMINENT AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AS RELATIVE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...A COMBINATION OF MVFR AND IFR ESPECIALLY IN
TERMS OF CEILINGS...WILL IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT...WITH THE THREAT OF EVEN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ABOUT ENDED
IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD BY 02Z...AND IN ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AGAIN BY 09Z. BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND LIKELY BY 09Z THURSDAY...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED LOWER VISIBILITIES THIS
EVENING ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THERE ARE LOWER VISIBILITIES FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING IN
THE FORECASTS FOR KRWI AND KFAY AS A RESULT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SURFACE WINDS VEER TO NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH. A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL RESULT IN SOME
WIND GUSTS WITH MIXING THURSDAY TO THE LOWER 20S KNOTS. AN UPPER JET
OVERHEAD SHOULD HOLD SOME CIRRUS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA INTO THURSDAY...AND THAT MAY LIMIT SLIGHTLY MIXING AND WIND
GUST POTENTIAL...WHICH BASED ON THE GFS COULD BE INTO THE UPPER 20S
KNOTS TOWARD KRWI IF VERY GOOD MIXING WOULD BE REALIZED LATE
THURSDAY MORNING.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
WOULD COME BY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS/DJF
NEAR TERM...10/DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...DJF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 1255 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM WEDNESDAY...

ONLY VERY PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS OBSERVED IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS
LATE MORNING APPROACHED...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED GOOD DIFFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AHEAD OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE...EVEN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...TO GENERALLY
AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH NUMEROUS TO AT
TIMES MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS COULD
BE QUITE SCATTERED FOR A WHILE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS ARE NEAR AN INCH
AT BEST AS OF THIS WRITING...AND FARTHEST FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-
LEVEL JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY NOT OCCUR THERE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE CATEGORICAL
CHANCES FOR THAT AREA INTO THE EVENING AS THE RAP FORECASTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ACTUALLY INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY 00Z OR SO.

700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL ON RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALOFT WARMS A LITTLE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER SEEMS REMOTE. 0-3KM MLCAPE BASICALLY ONLY REGISTERS NEAR AND
OFFSHORE...COINCIDENT WITH THE SPC OUTLOOK...BUT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND MUCAPE BETWEEN ABOUT 100 AND
300J/KG AREAWIDE...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AS 700MB TEMPERATURES COOL. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS HIGHS ARE FORECAST ON THE LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE BUT
LIKE THE TREND FOR NOW THOUGH PARTS OF THE TRIAD IN PARTICULAR COULD
END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER WITH KGSO IN THE UPPER 50S ALREADY
AS OF THIS WRITING. OVERNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS
THROUGH CENTRAL NC FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z THURSDAY.
DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH PROBABLY PRETTY LIMITED
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE TRIAD BY 02Z...TRIANGLE BY AROUND
05Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

CLOSED LOW OVER AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY AS POST-FRONTAL COLD DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY. CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
SUPPORT A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NC. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG/TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO START THE DAY WILL QUICKLY RELAX BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT TO SEE THE STRONGEST NWLY WIND GUSTS BY
LUNCHTIME...IN THE 22 TO 25KT RANGE...DIMINISHING INTO THE TEENS BY
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SERIES OF VIGOROUS MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM SOME
POSSIBLE THIN HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING +1035MB SURFACE HIGH MAINTAINING A DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN SURPRISING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WITH A CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
TUESDAY. CIRRUS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WAY TOO EARLY TO GET TOO DETAILED
BUT WILL MONITOR EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN COULD FAVOR SOME HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR CENTRAL
NC(HEAVY RAIN, LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SEVERE WX).

EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...A COMBINATION OF MVFR AND IFR ESPECIALLY IN
TERMS OF CEILINGS...WILL IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT...WITH THE THREAT OF EVEN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ABOUT ENDED
IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD BY 02Z...AND IN ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AGAIN BY 09Z. BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND LIKELY BY 09Z THURSDAY...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED LOWER VISIBILITIES THIS
EVENING ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THERE ARE LOWER VISIBILITIES FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING IN
THE FORECASTS FOR KRWI AND KFAY AS A RESULT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SURFACE WINDS VEER TO NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH. A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL RESULT IN SOME
WIND GUSTS WITH MIXING THURSDAY TO THE LOWER 20S KNOTS. AN UPPER JET
OVERHEAD SHOULD HOLD SOME CIRRUS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA INTO THURSDAY...AND THAT MAY LIMIT SLIGHTLY MIXING AND WIND
GUST POTENTIAL...WHICH BASED ON THE GFS COULD BE INTO THE UPPER 20S
KNOTS TOWARD KRWI IF VERY GOOD MIXING WOULD BE REALIZED LATE
THURSDAY MORNING.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
WOULD COME BY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS/DJF
NEAR TERM...10/DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 222 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEAR SKY ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS (700MB-500MB) NOW INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM ALBERTA SOUTH INTO WESTERN MONTANA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY IN THE EVENING GIVING WAY TO A PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY WEST INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH AS IT
SHIFTS THROUGH 06Z-15Z THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS WEST AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL. THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL 12Z THURSDAY AND WITH FAIRLY
FRESH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...THIS IS THE AREA WHERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TEENS JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY
WEST IN AREAS LACKING SNOW COVER AND ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARRIVING
OVERNIGHT. LOOKED AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS
NOTHING DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME. WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
NEAR 32F WEDNESDAY...FEEL THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS DECREASING
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE /12Z- 15Z/ FOLLOWED BY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND
HIGHS 35 TO 45.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING
CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

BY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE. AT THE MOMENT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH SAID COLD FRONT WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WHERE THE STRONGER FORCING WILL RESIDE.

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...WITH SUBTLE WAVES MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION.
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE
WAVES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (06Z-15Z). THIS WILL PRODUCE SCT/BKN
CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500FT AND 15000FT AGL WEST AND INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INCLUDES KISN/KDIK/KBIS. HOWEVER
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT A CLEARING SKY
AFTER 15Z THURSDAY ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...KS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 1250 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY AND PASS OFFSHORE TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE ONGOING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT RESULTING IN
DRIER WEATHER AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UP TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT REMAINS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE
COLD FRONT WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS JUST TO OUR WEST. ALL
THESE FEATURES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY...THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
EAST...AIDED BY THE PIVOTING 5H UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. LEANED POPS AND FRONTAL TIMING TOWARDS THE HRRR FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED LATE MORNING
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A CHALLENGE WITH COLD AIR WEDGE AND RAIN...IT
WILL BE MILD THIS AFTERNOON FOR DECEMBER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. DECENT 85H FRONT WILL CROSS THE FAR WEST BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THE REST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN PIEDMONT.

AS OF 210 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

FLOOD THREAT REMAINS THE OVERALL CONCERN AT LEAST INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS TO THE NW THIS
MORNING. ONCE THIS FEATURE WORKS TO THE NORTH...SHOULD SEE THE TRAILING
SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SURGE EAST...AIDED BY THE PIVOTING 5H UPPER
SYSTEM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE SPED UP
THE TIMING OF EXITING THE HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE WEST BY MIDDAY AND
OUT EAST A FEW HOURS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE A BIT QUICK.
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WILL GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHALLOW CONVECTION
WITHIN THE AXIS OF STEADY RAIN AS SO FAR THE WEDGE HAS PRECLUDED
THIS WITH RAINFALL RATES ON THE LOW SIDE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
ONLY SLOW RISES ON AREA STREAMS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO HINT AT PERIODIC CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS BUT MAINLY ON THE WESTERN SLOPES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY TRYING TO
MAKE A RUN BY MID AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE ALSO CUT BACK ON THE ADDED QPF
OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THE WATCH IN PLACE WITH HEAVIEST QPF STILL OVER THE FAR WEST/SW
WHERE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH
AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE PER THE LATEST ECMWF. GIVEN FASTER
TRENDS ALSO PLAN TO CUT BACK POPS A BIT FASTER AFTER THIS MORNING
OVER THE WEST AND PIEDMONT BEFORE SUNSET. HIGH TEMPS TRICKY WITH
THE WEDGE LINGERING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP
EXODUS WHICH COULD ALLOW A QUICK SPIKE IN VALUES BEFORE THE ACTUAL
FRONT CROSSES FROM THE WEST LATER. MOST MOS NEAR OR ABOVE 60 FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST SO BUMPED UP VALUES MOST LOCATIONS INCLUDING
THE FAR WEST WHERE ALREADY IN THE 50S IN SPOTS.

DECENT 85H FRONT WILL CROSS THE FAR WEST BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE
REST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK UPTICK IN
COLD ADVECTION INCLUDING GUSTY NW WINDS...AND UPSLOPE DRIVEN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WESTERN SLOPES WHILE AIDING DOWNSLOPE CLEARING OUT EAST. COULD
BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS NC MOUNTAINS PER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
QUICK DROP IN 85H TEMPS BUT GIVEN ONLY 40 KTS AT 85H WILL HOLD JUST
BELOW WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS RIGHT NEAR DAYBREAK THU. APPEARS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OUT
WEST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT COATING AT ELEVATION
FAR NW DESPITE A WET/WARM GROUND AND GUSTY WINDS. OTRW WILL HAVE
THE TYPICAL SPLIT IN SPILLOVER LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND CLEAR OUT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY 30S EXCEPT ONLY
AROUND 40 PIEDMONT PENDING THE DEGREE OF MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH TRANSIENT SPLIT
FLOW CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND GIVES WAY TO RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BRING A FEW DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE
REGION...SAVE FOR BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THAT WILL
BE DISSIPATING THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS STARTING
OUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...THEN RISING TO SEASONAL
LEVELS OF MIDDLE 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
WEST BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE. THE GFS CUTS OFF THE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS AN OPEN
WAVE AND PUSHES IT OUT TO SEA. IN ANY CASE ...THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS FEATURE REMAINS LIMITED...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING IN THE
EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN A SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE COAST
FROM THE GULF. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS THIS IS OVER A WEEK AWAY. THE
GFS IS WETTER THAN THE ECMWF. WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1248 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

VARIABILITY IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN
WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. HOWEVER...SOME POCKETS OF VFR/MVFR WILL
OCCUR IN THE WEST WHERE RAIN IS TAPERING OFF.

THERE WILL BE VARIABILITY IN VISIBILITIES BASED ON INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL. TYPICAL FLUCTUATIONS WILL RUN FROM 1 TO 3SM IN MODERATE
RAIN OR WHEN RAIN TAPERS OFF...WHILE CIGS MAY LIFT TOWARD MVFR
AROUND 1-2KFT IF RAIN COMES DOWN HARD ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE LOW
CIGS SOME. ALSO IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WHERE RAIN
TAPERS AND FOG REDEVELOPS. IN GENERAL....POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN WIDESPREAD RAIN/FOG AND LOWER CIGS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE WEDGE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY MIX OUT OR ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT MOST PLACES
WILL SEE CIGS IN MVFR WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF KBLF/KLWB/KBCB NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AND KROA BY 20Z...LINGERING AT LYH/DAN TIL 22Z. WINDS HAVE ALREADY
SHIFTED TO THE WEST AT KBLF/KLWB AND GUSTS UP 20 KTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTING UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP AFTER
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BRIEF VFR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. ALSO
A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR FROM KBLF TO KLWB BUT GIVEN
ISOLATED NATURE WONT INCLUDE ANY VSBYS REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT. OTRW
APPEARS MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS WILL SNEAK BACK INTO KBCB/KROA
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 OR 30 KTS ALONG THE
RIDGES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP EASTERN SITES VFR OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SOME MVFR/OCNL IFR CIGS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS AT KBLF AND KLWB
WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND FRONT...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...


HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER PATCHY EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT MORNING DUE TO MOIST GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH FEW ADDITIONS GIVEN OVERALL SLOW
RAINFALL RATES AND LESS COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH PWATS
200-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THE RAINFALL EFFICIENCY SHOULD BE HIGH
THROUGH THIS MORNING WEST AND EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION MIXING IN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AROUND MIDDAY.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR WATAGUA...ASHE AND GRAYSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 2 PM.

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING REMAINS OVER THE
WEST INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE AND MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVING UP
THE WESTERN SLOPES BEFORE HEADING EAST LATER THIS MORNING.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH MAIN STEM RIVERS AND THE HEADWATERS...LIKE
UPPER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER. PRESENTLY...THE DAN RIVER FROM
DANVILLE...DOWNSTREAM TO SOUTH BOSTON IS FAVORED TO GO TO NEAR
FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING...IF THE RAINFALL OF ANOTHER INCH
OR SO PANS OUT THROUGH LATER TODAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-010-
     012>017-022>024-032>035-045>047.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...JH/KK
HYDROLOGY...JH/KK/WP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 130 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND FOG POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOOP OF WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW CENTER
OF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...LINGERING DEFORMATION CLOUD COVER HANGING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS AND SYNTHETIC LOW CLOUD/FOG IMAGERY SHOW A SLOW
WEST TO EAST CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER //BASICALLY UP TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE// AS THE LOW PULLS EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS CLEARING WILL PROVIDE FOR SEASONALLY CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IN THE TEENS...WHILE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE RIVER UNDER MORE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED SETTLE INTO THE MIDDLE 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE INCREASED
SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO A FEW LOWER
40S. THIS WILL MELT MOST OF THE SNOW THAT FELL THE LAST COUPLE DAY.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN WHAT IMPACT ALL THAT MELTED SNOW WILL HAVE ON
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
ARE DRY...SREF SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUD/FOG GIVEN THE
DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FOR
NOW...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE
WHAT TOMORROW BRINGS AS FAR AS DEW POINT RESPONSE TO THE SNOW MELT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015

FOG POTENTIAL FRIDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT
ARE THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRIDAY MORNING AS THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
FOG POTENTIAL...BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS KICK IN FOR MIXING...SUNSHINE SHOULD BE AMPLE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. GFS/NAM SHOWING 925MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO 6-8C BY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS AT THE SURFACE IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY BY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
PLANS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 40S.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW-
LEVEL/0.5KM MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA FOR AN
INCREASE IN STRATUS CLOUD COVER. THE GFS ALSO SHOWING DECENT/DEEP850-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. ADDED A LIGHT CHANCE MENTION
FOR NOW.

LOOKS QUIET/MILD THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS STORM TRACK
REMAINS WELL NORTH INTO CANADA. PLAN ON HIGHS REMAINING NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015

A WEDGE OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR HAS WRAPPED INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND
LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...CAUSING BOTH TAF SITES TO BECOME
VFR ON SKY CONDITION. MEANWHILE...LURKING TO THE WEST NEAR I-35
AND INTO WESTERN MN IS A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS.
TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY WHEN THESE WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES GIVEN
SOME POOR MODEL FORECASTS OF THIS CURRENT WEDGE OF DRY AIR.
HOWEVER...WITH A NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND DEVELOPING...THE CLOUDS
ARE GOING TO GET THERE. CURRENTLY HAVE 22Z FOR RST AND 02Z AT
LSE BUT THIS TIMING MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT. ALSO HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CLOUD DECK AS A LOW MVFR FOR NOW. WITH A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH RST AROUND 10Z AND LSE AROUND 14Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ