Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/01/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
222 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
THE UPR LOW WILL BE OVER WY TONIGHT WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY COMING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOW AND OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE CONTDVD
FIRST...AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING SO WL ADD
THAT TO THE FORECAST.
THE HRRR SHOWS BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING OVR THE ERN
MTNS...I-25 CORRIDOR...THEN MOVING EASTWARD AND LOOKING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACRS THE FAR SERN PLAINS. THE NAM GENERALLY SHOWS 2-3
INCHES ACROSS TELLER AND NRN EL PASO COUNTIES...AND ACROSS THE FAR
SERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH 3-5 INCHES OVR MTN AREAS AND AROUND 1
INCH OVR MUCH OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM KCOS AND SOUTHWARD. THE GFS
IS SIMILAR BUT DOES NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH OVR THE MTNS AND OVER THE
FAR SERN PLAINS IT SHOWS ABOUT 2-6 INCHES OVERNIGHT. IF BANDS DO SET
UP...AREA UNDER THE BANDS COULD GET A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION THAN
LOCATIONS WITHOUT. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM FOR
SNOW AMOUNTS...WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST AREAS.
MON MORNING SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVR THE MTNS AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...THERE SHOULD ONLY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS
BY AFTERNOON. ALSO...AS WESTERLY FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE UPR
TROF...THE LOW LEVEL MSTR/CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT AND THE
PLAINS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
...WARMER WEEK AHEAD...
A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE COMING
WEEK...WHICH WILL GIVE US MORE SUN AND WARMER WX TO START THE
METEOROLOGIC WINTER OFF.
A FEW LINGERING SHSN OVER THE CENTRAL MTS MON NIGHT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TRAILING
DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING A FEW FLURRIES AND INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE
MTS TUE EVENING. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S WED-
THU...THEN POSSIBLY MID-UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS SW
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND ON HOW STRONG TO EXPECT THE TROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
SYSTEM...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK PROBABLY THAT
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
PERIOD...SO HAVE RAISED ENSEMBLE-BASED POPS SOMEWHAT SO THAT POPS
ARE AT LEAST CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGIC AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.
ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MON
MORNING AT KPUB AND KCOS. SOME SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. ON MON THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
KALS COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR THRU THE
PERIOD...BUT WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1056 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
IR SATELLITE INDICATES ENHANCING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE SAN JUANS
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SNOW TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT. RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS PASSING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR AGAIN THIS EVENING...A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN
YESTERDAY`S SNOW. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS AND
OBSERVATIONS TO PINPOINT THE AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW FOR THIS
EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
THE QUASI-STATIONARY AND BROAD BAND OF SNOW WHICH EXTENDED FROM
THE VICINITY OF NUCLA TO CRAIG BEGAN TO SHRINK EARLY THIS MORNING
AS MODELS HAD PREDICTED. SNOWFALL HAD LARGELY ENDED OVER THE
GRAND VALLEY...ROAN PLATEAU AND CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN. WHILE
SNOW LINGERED OVER THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU...THE GRAND MESA...AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS ITS INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY. AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES...EXPECT LINGERING SNOWFALL TO BECOME MORE
LOCALIZED AND ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. THEREFORE
...REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT PROVIDED SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT
WILL LIFT INTO WYOMING TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE LOW CENTER THAT
BROUGHT THE ROUND OF SNOW TO WESTERN CO AND NORTHEAST UT FRIDAY
NIGHT HAS MADE ITS WAY BACK TO THE UT/NV BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL MAKE ONE FINAL RUN THROUGH ERN UT/WRN CO TONIGHT WHILE
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW/VORTICITY LOBE HANGS OUT IN WYOMING AND
WAITS FOR A FINAL PASS OVER CO MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING INCREASES AGAIN BY MIDDAY OVER ERN UT AND THEN OVER WRN CO
THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. UNLIKE WHAT HAPPENED THIS PAST NIGHT...MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS NOT AS WELL ALIGNED WITH THE QG
FORCING SO DO NOT EXPECT AS ROBUST COVERAGE OF SNOW...EXCEPT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PARTS OF ERN UT/WRN CO.
THERE MAY BE A FEW PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FOR ADJACENT VALLEYS...
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS THERE. SEVERAL
INCHES LIKELY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THOUGH THROUGH TONIGHT. AS WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST 2 DAYS...DETAILS OF EACH SURGE OF FORCING WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED CLOSER TO THE APPROACH OF EACH WAVE.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FINALLY TURNS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE FLOW WILL BE MOIST AND MODERATELY STRONG...SO
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED WEST TO
NORTHWEST FACING HIGH COUNTRY REGIONS ON MONDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE ABOUT 3 TO 8 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBLE ADVISORIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING OVER THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW FINALLY DWINDLES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF SNOW FROM THANKSGIVING
INTO THE EARLY PART OF WEEK SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...LOOK FOR ANY LINGERING SNOW TO
DIMINISH BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS A RIDGE OVER
THE AREA AT MIDWEEK. MODELS HAVE DIVERGED ON PROPAGATION OF THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE GFS THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...BOTH SOLUTIONS HAVE ABANDONED CUTTING OFF A
CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
ACCORDING TO THE GFS SOLUTION...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ARRIVES FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF ON THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY. GIVEN BOTH A LACK OF TEMPORAL
CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION IS
POOR. THEREFORE...HELD OFF MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST AND LIMITED POPS TO THE LOWER END OF THE CHANCE
SCALE.
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE WEEK WITH
RIDGING...DESCRIBED ABOVE...AND SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
THE CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION THE LAST FEW
DAYS WILL SEND ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY INTO THE REGION TODAY. SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENHANCE OVER THE SAN JUANS AND
WILL IMPACT KTEX...KASE AND KEGE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR FOR HOURS AT A TIME. IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO
SITES CLEARING BY MORNING. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE
AT MANY SITES TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1027 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
UPDATED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
UPDATE FOR CANCELLATION OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EL PASO COUNTY.
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTN. MOORE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER UT AND WY
EARLY THIS MORNING...KEEPING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION. A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BLANKETED THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE E PLAINS. DENSE FOG WAS SPREADING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY
OVERNIGHT...BUT AS OF 330 AM AREAL COVERAGE OF THE MORE DENSE FOG
HAD DIMINISHED. TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WERE BEING REPORTED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE
TO THE NORTHEAST UP INTO WY...WITH A ONE LOBE OF ENERGY SWEEPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTN AND EVE. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY IS
WHAT WILL PROMPT PCPN AND ENHANCED CLOUD COVER OVER THE CONTDVD THIS
MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINING MTS AND E PLAINS THIS AFTN AND
EVE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. NAM...GFS AND EC MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SPOTTY PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND
EVEN THE HRRR HINTED AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO INTRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...VERY SPARSE PCPN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PCPN COVERAGE STARTS
TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EAST BY MID-AFTN...THEN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
THE PALMER DVD AND NORTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVE AS THE PCPN
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE E-SE. TOTAL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...ENDING AT 12Z MON...COULD BE 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND UP TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE.
SO...THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN A DENSE FOG ADV FOR EL PASO COUNTY
EVEN THOUGH REPORTS OF DENSE FOG ARE STARTING TO DRY UP. THE ADV
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG FOR MUCH OF
THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING UNTIL 18Z...AS WILL BE MENTION
OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE FAR E PLAINS...ROUGHLY
KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES WHERE THE SOUNDING SHOWS
FAVORABLE FREEZING DRIZZLE CONDITIONS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS...MAX TEMP READINGS THIS AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP UP TO
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
...SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS...
AFTER A PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER IN WHICH THE MAX TEMPS HAVE NOT GONE
ABOVE FREEZING...A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
MONDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE STATE BY LATE MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE 500 MB LOW WILL BE ENTERING INTO NW
COLORADO AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SNOW TO OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE C
MTNS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD REACH AT OR ABOVE 32F
MOST OF THE PLAINS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND HIGHER VALLEYS. SOME GUSTS TO 20
MPH WILL OCCUR ON THE PLAINS.
TUESDAY...
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW
LIFT OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN
ACROSS THE MTNS SO I ANTICIPATE DRY WX REGION-WIDE ON THIS DAY. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE 40S MOST OF
THE PLAINS. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PUEBLO REGION
WITH U40S POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THIS DAY. DRY WX IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE PLAINS
AND 30S AND 40S VALLEYS.
THURSDAY...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS NEXT PACIFIC WX SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE THE CALIF COAST. WX SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER THE CWA
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 50S MOST OF THE PLAINS...AND 30S AND 40S
VALLEYS. DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED REGION WIDE.
FRIDAY...
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...SIMULATIONS SHOW DRY WX
CONTINUING OVER THE FCST AREA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CONTDVD AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY. SIMULATIONS ARE NOW
SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS ON THIS DAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO MAX TEMPS THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. EC IS STRONGER WITH THE
TROUGH THEN GFS. GFS IS MAINLY DRY WHILE EC SHOWS LIGHT QPF OVER
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BOTH GUIDANCE PRODUCTS SHOW A COOL
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SAT MORNING AND THIS WILL
COOL THE MAX TEMPS DOWN MAINLY INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
/HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR OR IFR CIGS WL CONTINUE AT KCOS AND KPUB INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SOME FLURRIES WL ALSO CONTINUE AT KCOS AND
KPUB...BUT THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL AS A WX DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA. IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BEING
DISSIPATING.
KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS...BUT AT THIS TIME CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
849 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
UPDATED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
UPDATE FOR CANCELLATION OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EL PASO COUNTY.
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTN. MOORE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER UT AND WY
EARLY THIS MORNING...KEEPING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION. A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BLANKETED THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE E PLAINS. DENSE FOG WAS SPREADING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY
OVERNIGHT...BUT AS OF 330 AM AREAL COVERAGE OF THE MORE DENSE FOG
HAD DIMINISHED. TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WERE BEING REPORTED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE
TO THE NORTHEAST UP INTO WY...WITH A ONE LOBE OF ENERGY SWEEPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTN AND EVE. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY IS
WHAT WILL PROMPT PCPN AND ENHANCED CLOUD COVER OVER THE CONTDVD THIS
MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINING MTS AND E PLAINS THIS AFTN AND
EVE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. NAM...GFS AND EC MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SPOTTY PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND
EVEN THE HRRR HINTED AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO INTRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...VERY SPARSE PCPN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PCPN COVERAGE STARTS
TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EAST BY MID-AFTN...THEN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
THE PALMER DVD AND NORTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVE AS THE PCPN
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE E-SE. TOTAL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...ENDING AT 12Z MON...COULD BE 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND UP TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE.
SO...THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN A DENSE FOG ADV FOR EL PASO COUNTY
EVEN THOUGH REPORTS OF DENSE FOG ARE STARTING TO DRY UP. THE ADV
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG FOR MUCH OF
THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING UNTIL 18Z...AS WILL BE MENTION
OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE FAR E PLAINS...ROUGHLY
KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES WHERE THE SOUNDING SHOWS
FAVORABLE FREEZING DRIZZLE CONDITIONS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS...MAX TEMP READINGS THIS AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP UP TO
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
...SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS...
AFTER A PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER IN WHICH THE MAX TEMPS HAVE NOT GONE
ABOVE FREEZING...A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
MONDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE STATE BY LATE MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE 500 MB LOW WILL BE ENTERING INTO NW
COLORADO AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SNOW TO OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE C
MTNS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD REACH AT OR ABOVE 32F
MOST OF THE PLAINS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND HIGHER VALLEYS. SOME GUSTS TO 20
MPH WILL OCCUR ON THE PLAINS.
TUESDAY...
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW
LIFT OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN
ACROSS THE MTNS SO I ANTICIPATE DRY WX REGION-WIDE ON THIS DAY. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE 40S MOST OF
THE PLAINS. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PUEBLO REGION
WITH U40S POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THIS DAY. DRY WX IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE PLAINS
AND 30S AND 40S VALLEYS.
THURSDAY...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS NEXT PACIFIC WX SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE THE CALIF COAST. WX SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER THE CWA
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 50S MOST OF THE PLAINS...AND 30S AND 40S
VALLEYS. DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED REGION WIDE.
FRIDAY...
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...SIMULATIONS SHOW DRY WX
CONTINUING OVER THE FCST AREA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CONTDVD AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY. SIMULATIONS ARE NOW
SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS ON THIS DAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO MAX TEMPS THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. EC IS STRONGER WITH THE
TROUGH THEN GFS. GFS IS MAINLY DRY WHILE EC SHOWS LIGHT QPF OVER
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BOTH GUIDANCE PRODUCTS SHOW A COOL
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SAT MORNING AND THIS WILL
COOL THE MAX TEMPS DOWN MAINLY INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
/HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR KALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
LIGHT SN WILL MOVE IN BY MID-AFTN AND LAST INTO THE EVE. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED OVER SURROUNDING MT PASSES.
CURRENT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...AT TIMES DENSE...WILL LESSEN BY
18Z BUT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTN AND BECOME HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING.
CURRENT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB WILL BECOME VFR BY 18Z
TEMPORARILY...THEN DEGRADE TO MVFR TO IFR ONCE AGAIN LATE AFTN AND
EVE AS ISOLATED SNOW AND LOWERING CLOUD DECK MOVES BACK IN. MOORE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
655 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
UPDATE FOR CANCELLATION OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EL PASO COUNTY.
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTN. MOORE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER UT AND WY
EARLY THIS MORNING...KEEPING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION. A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BLANKETED THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE E PLAINS. DENSE FOG WAS SPREADING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY
OVERNIGHT...BUT AS OF 330 AM AREAL COVERAGE OF THE MORE DENSE FOG
HAD DIMINISHED. TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WERE BEING REPORTED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE
TO THE NORTHEAST UP INTO WY...WITH A ONE LOBE OF ENERGY SWEEPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTN AND EVE. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY IS
WHAT WILL PROMPT PCPN AND ENHANCED CLOUD COVER OVER THE CONTDVD THIS
MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINING MTS AND E PLAINS THIS AFTN AND
EVE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. NAM...GFS AND EC MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SPOTTY PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND
EVEN THE HRRR HINTED AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO INTRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...VERY SPARSE PCPN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PCPN COVERAGE STARTS
TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EAST BY MID-AFTN...THEN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
THE PALMER DVD AND NORTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVE AS THE PCPN
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE E-SE. TOTAL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...ENDING AT 12Z MON...COULD BE 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND UP TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE.
SO...THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN A DENSE FOG ADV FOR EL PASO COUNTY
EVEN THOUGH REPORTS OF DENSE FOG ARE STARTING TO DRY UP. THE ADV
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG FOR MUCH OF
THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING UNTIL 18Z...AS WILL BE MENTION
OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE FAR E PLAINS...ROUGHLY
KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES WHERE THE SOUNDING SHOWS
FAVORABLE FREEZING DRIZZLE CONDITIONS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS...MAX TEMP READINGS THIS AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP UP TO
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
...SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS...
AFTER A PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER IN WHICH THE MAX TEMPS HAVE NOT GONE
ABOVE FREEZING...A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
MONDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE STATE BY LATE MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE 500 MB LOW WILL BE ENTERING INTO NW
COLORADO AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SNOW TO OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE C
MTNS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD REACH AT OR ABOVE 32F
MOST OF THE PLAINS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND HIGHER VALLEYS. SOME GUSTS TO 20
MPH WILL OCCUR ON THE PLAINS.
TUESDAY...
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW
LIFT OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN
ACROSS THE MTNS SO I ANTICIPATE DRY WX REGION-WIDE ON THIS DAY. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE 40S MOST OF
THE PLAINS. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PUEBLO REGION
WITH U40S POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THIS DAY. DRY WX IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE PLAINS
AND 30S AND 40S VALLEYS.
THURSDAY...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS NEXT PACIFIC WX SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE THE CALIF COAST. WX SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER THE CWA
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 50S MOST OF THE PLAINS...AND 30S AND 40S
VALLEYS. DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED REGION WIDE.
FRIDAY...
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...SIMULATIONS SHOW DRY WX
CONTINUING OVER THE FCST AREA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CONTDVD AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY. SIMULATIONS ARE NOW
SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS ON THIS DAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO MAX TEMPS THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. EC IS STRONGER WITH THE
TROUGH THEN GFS. GFS IS MAINLY DRY WHILE EC SHOWS LIGHT QPF OVER
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BOTH GUIDANCE PRODUCTS SHOW A COOL
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SAT MORNING AND THIS WILL
COOL THE MAX TEMPS DOWN MAINLY INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
/HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR KALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
LIGHT SN WILL MOVE IN BY MID-AFTN AND LAST INTO THE EVE. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED OVER SURROUNDING MT PASSES.
CURRENT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...AT TIMES DENSE...WILL LESSEN BY
18Z BUT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTN AND BECOME HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING.
CURRENT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB WILL BECOME VFR BY 18Z
TEMPORARILY...THEN DEGRADE TO MVFR TO IFR ONCE AGAIN LATE AFTN AND
EVE AS ISOLATED SNOW AND LOWERING CLOUD DECK MOVES BACK IN. MOORE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
350 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER UT AND WY
EARLY THIS MORNING...KEEPING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION. A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BLANKETED THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE E PLAINS. DENSE FOG WAS SPREADING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY
OVERNIGHT...BUT AS OF 330 AM AREAL COVERAGE OF THE MORE DENSE FOG
HAD DIMINISHED. TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WERE BEING REPORTED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE
TO THE NORTHEAST UP INTO WY...WITH A ONE LOBE OF ENERGY SWEEPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTN AND EVE. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY IS
WHAT WILL PROMPT PCPN AND ENHANCED CLOUD COVER OVER THE CONTDVD THIS
MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINING MTS AND E PLAINS THIS AFTN AND
EVE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. NAM...GFS AND EC MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SPOTTY PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND
EVEN THE HRRR HINTED AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO INTRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...VERY SPARSE PCPN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PCPN COVERAGE STARTS
TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EAST BY MID-AFTN...THEN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
THE PALMER DVD AND NORTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVE AS THE PCPN
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE E-SE. TOTAL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...ENDING AT 12Z MON...COULD BE 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND UP TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE.
SO...THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN A DENSE FOG ADV FOR EL PASO COUNTY
EVEN THOUGH REPORTS OF DENSE FOG ARE STARTING TO DRY UP. THE ADV
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG FOR MUCH OF
THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING UNTIL 18Z...AS WILL BE MENTION
OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE FAR E PLAINS...ROUGHLY
KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES WHERE THE SOUNDING SHOWS
FAVORABLE FREEZING DRIZZLE CONDITIONS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS...MAX TEMP READINGS THIS AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP UP TO
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
...SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS...
AFTER A PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER IN WHICH THE MAX TEMPS HAVE NOT GONE
ABOVE FREEZING...A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
MONDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE STATE BY LATE MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE 500 MB LOW WILL BE ENTERING INTO NW
COLORADO AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SNOW TO OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE C
MTNS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD REACH AT OR ABOVE 32F
MOST OF THE PLAINS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND HIGHER VALLEYS. SOME GUSTS TO 20
MPH WILL OCCUR ON THE PLAINS.
TUESDAY...
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW
LIFT OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN
ACROSS THE MTNS SO I ANTICIPATE DRY WX REGION-WIDE ON THIS DAY. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE 40S MOST OF
THE PLAINS. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PUEBLO REGION
WITH U40S POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THIS DAY. DRY WX IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE PLAINS
AND 30S AND 40S VALLEYS.
THURSDAY...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS NEXT PACIFIC WX SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE THE CALIF COAST. WX SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER THE CWA
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 50S MOST OF THE PLAINS...AND 30S AND 40S
VALLEYS. DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED REGION WIDE.
FRIDAY...
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...SIMULATIONS SHOW DRY WX
CONTINUING OVER THE FCST AREA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CONTDVD AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY. SIMULATIONS ARE NOW
SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS ON THIS DAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO MAX TEMPS THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. EC IS STRONGER WITH THE
TROUGH THEN GFS. GFS IS MAINLY DRY WHILE EC SHOWS LIGHT QPF OVER
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BOTH GUIDANCE PRODUCTS SHOW A COOL
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SAT MORNING AND THIS WILL
COOL THE MAX TEMPS DOWN MAINLY INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
/HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR KALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
LIGHT SN WILL MOVE IN BY MID-AFTN AND LAST INTO THE EVE. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED OVER SURROUNDING MT PASSES.
CURRENT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...AT TIMES DENSE...WILL LESSEN BY
18Z BUT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTN AND BECOME HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING.
CURRENT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB WILL BECOME VFR BY 18Z
TEMPORARILY...THEN DEGRADE TO MVFR TO IFR ONCE AGAIN LATE AFTN AND
EVE AS ISOLATED SNOW AND LOWERING CLOUD DECK MOVES BACK IN. MOORE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL START TO RETURN BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY BEFORE IT LIFTS THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER AND
DRIER ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FROM
PHILADELPHIA TO CENTRAL NJ AND POINTS NORTH, CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY
START TO BREAK UP SOME IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOCATIONS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH SUCH AS THE DELMARVA WILL LIKELY HANG
ON TO CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE DAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEPART
THE REGION AS WELL THIS MORNING. POPS WERE RAISED THROUGH MID
MORNING FOR THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN THE DELMARVA WITH THE
6:30 AM UPDATE. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR THESE TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ TO THE
MID 40`S NEAR PHILADELPHIA TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY MEAN LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA WITH THE CAA. FURTHER NORTH,
SOME WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40`S IS LIKELY WITH MORE SUNSHINE. THE
EXACT TIMING OF CLEARING WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF LINGER CLOUDS AND RAIN
WHICH WOULD IMPLY THE FORECAST IS TO WARM. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE
FASTER GFS MAY MAKE THE FORECAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO COOL. THE
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS MAY NOT BE CAPTURING THE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER ENOUGH TODAY, SO THE FORECAST IS A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER THAN MET/MAV.WHILE TERMINALS TO
THE NORTH HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A MOSTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT ACROSS THE DELMARVA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION,
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH ANY FOG. HOWEVER, THIS
FORECAST DOES SHOW SOME TYPICAL SPOTS RADIATING A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE SETS WITH LOWS. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 20`S NORTH TO THE 30`S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AN
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MARINE STRATOCU IN THE MORNING NEAR THE COAST THAT EXPANDS INLAND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (AND EXPAND NORTHWARD
DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES) AS WINDS BACK MORE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ONCE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSES DOWNSTREAM
OF US AND PRODUCE AN OVERRUNNING SETUP. WE MAY EVEN SEE ISOLATED
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AND
EVENING FROM APPROXIMATELY THE DE BAY SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD WEDGE OVERHEAD,
ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN OVERRUNNING SETUP OVER
OUR REGION WITH THE W-E ORIENTED FRONT THAT JUST MOVED THRU OUR AREA
POSITIONED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT RAIN TO EXPAND BACK INTO OUR
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RADIATE TO NEAR FREEZING
MONDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHERN-MOST ZONES (CARBON-MONROE-SUSSEX
COUNTIES) IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH HOLDS OFF
UNTIL LATER. IF THIS HAPPENS, THEN PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 (WHERE THE POCKET OF COLD
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS TYPICALLY HARDEST TO SCOUR OUT). BASED ON
THE LATEST WPC ICE AND SREF TEMP/PTYPE PROBABILITIES, THE CHANCE FOR
ICE ACCRECTION IS ONLY ABOUT 20 PERCENT...NOT HIGH ENOUGH ODDS TO
MENTION IN THE HWO BUT AT LEAST COMMUNICATE IT TO THE PUBLIC IN THE
AFD.
THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE STEADIEST AND POSSIBLY MODERATE FOR A
PERIOD SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
THRU OUR AREA AND THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE FROPA, SO IT IS UNCLEAR IF PRECIP ENDS EARLY (GFS SOLUTION) OR
LATE IN THE DAY (ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION) ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE SURFACE
HIGH SITS OVER US. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE PRESENT WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT AT ILG-MIV-ACY. CEILINGS AT KTTN,
KPHL AND KPNE MAY ALTERNATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH 15Z THEN
REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES IN VFR
RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TODAY WITH
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP INITIALLY NEAR THE COAST (ACY/MIV)
IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY EXPAND INLAND TOWARD THE I-95
TERMINALS THRU THE AFTN. LIGHT ELY WINDS AOB 10 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE EVE. LIGHT
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NW-WD LATE. SOME TERMINALS SUCH AS RDG-
ILG COULD DETERIORATE TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK IF STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN RAIN LIKELY.
LIGHT ELY WINDS BECOME SLY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THRU THE
REGION.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AT THE ONSET IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...VFR. WLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 KT THRU THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND FOUR FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND WILL
LIKELY REMAINING AROUND FOUR FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT SEAS
SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND FIVE FEET WITH INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AS WELL. SOME OF THE GUSTS MAY GET CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS BUT THE
MAJORITY OF DATA SUGGESTS TOP GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE BELOW
25 KNOTS. WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR FIVE FOOT SEAS ON THE INCREASE WILL
ISSUE A SCA STARTING AT 10 PM THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES WITH SEAS OF 5-7
FT EXPECTED. ELY WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KT BUT GUSTS TO 25 KT WITH
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT AT OUR OFFSHORE BUOYS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 15-20 KT CONTINUE BUT
WITH SEAS 4-6 FT, THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THIS
PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN TO SLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF LULL IN SCA
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...POST-FRONTAL SURGE WILL PRODUCE A WLY
WIND NEAR 20 KT BUT STRONG MIXING MAY YIELD GUSTS THAT APPROACH
GALES THRU EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE WSR-88D LOCATED AT FORT DIX NJ WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST UNTIL
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 30. THE PARTS NEEDED TO REPAIR THE RADAR ARE ON
ORDER.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL START TO RETURN BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY BEFORE IT LIFTS THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER AND
DRIER ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FROM
PHILADELPHIA TO CENTRAL NJ AND POINTS NORTH, CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY
START TO BREAK UP SOME IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOCATIONS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH SUCH AS THE DELMARVA WILL LIKELY HANG
ON TO CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE DAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEPART
THE REGION AS WELL TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THESE TO LINGER ACROSS SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ TO THE
MID 40`S NEAR PHILADELPHIA TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY MEAN LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA WITH THE CAA. FURTHER NORTH,
SOME WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40`S IS LIKELY WITH MORE SUNSHINE. THE
EXACT TIMING OF CLEARING WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF LINGER CLOUDS AND RAIN
WHICH WOULD IMPLY THE FORECAST IS TO WARM. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE
FASTER GFS MAY MAKE THE FORECAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO COOL. THE
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS MAY NOT BE CAPTURING THE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER ENOUGH TODAY, SO THE FORECAST IS A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER THAN MET/MAV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A MOSTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT ACROSS THE DELMARVA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION,
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH ANY FOG. HOWEVER, THIS
FORECAST DOES SHOW SOME TYPICAL SPOTS RADIATING A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE SETS WITH LOWS. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 20`S NORTH TO THE 30`S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AN
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MARINE STRATOCU IN THE MORNING NEAR THE COAST THAT EXPANDS INLAND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (AND EXPAND NORTHWARD
DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES) AS WINDS BACK MORE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ONCE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSES DOWNSTREAM OF
US AND PRODUCE AN OVERRUNNING SETUP. WE MAY EVEN SEE ISOLATED
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AND
EVENING FROM APPROXIMATELY THE DE BAY SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD WEDGE OVERHEAD,
ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN OVERRUNNING SETUP OVER
OUR REGION WITH THE W-E ORIENTED FRONT THAT JUST MOVED THRU OUR AREA
POSITIONED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT RAIN TO EXPAND BACK INTO OUR
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RADIATE TO NEAR FREEZING
MONDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHERN-MOST ZONES (CARBON-MONROE-SUSSEX
COUNTIES) IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH HOLDS OFF
UNTIL LATER. IF THIS HAPPENS, THEN PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 (WHERE THE POCKET OF COLD
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS TYPICALLY HARDEST TO SCOUR OUT). BASED ON
THE LATEST WPC ICE AND SREF TEMP/PTYPE PROBABILITIES, THE CHANCE FOR
ICE ACCRECTION IS ONLY ABOUT 20 PERCENT...NOT HIGH ENOUGH ODDS TO
MENTION IN THE HWO BUT AT LEAST COMMUNICATE IT TO THE PUBLIC IN THE
AFD.
THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE STEADIEST AND POSSIBLY MODERATE FOR A
PERIOD SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
THRU OUR AREA AND THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE FROPA, SO IT IS UNCLEAR IF PRECIP ENDS EARLY (GFS SOLUTION) OR
LATE IN THE DAY (ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION) ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE SURFACE
HIGH SITS OVER US. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE PRESENT WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT AT ILG-MIV-ACY WHILE TERMINALS TO
THE NORTH HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TODAY WITH
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES IN VFR
RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP INITIALLY NEAR THE COAST (ACY/MIV)
IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY EXPAND INLAND TOWARD THE I-95
TERMINALS THRU THE AFTN. LIGHT ELY WINDS AOB 10 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE EVE. LIGHT
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NW-WD LATE. SOME TERMINALS SUCH AS RDG-
ILG COULD DETERIORATE TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK IF STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN RAIN LIKELY.
LIGHT ELY WINDS BECOME SLY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THRU THE
REGION.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AT THE ONSET IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...VFR. WLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 KT THRU THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND FOUR FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND WILL
LIKELY REMAINING AROUND FOUR FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT SEAS
SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND FIVE FEET WITH INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AS WELL. SOME OF THE GUSTS MAY GET CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS BUT THE
MAJORITY OF DATA SUGGESTS TOP GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE BELOW
25 KNOTS. WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR FIVE FOOT SEAS ON THE INCREASE WILL
ISSUE A SCA STARTING AT 10 PM THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES WITH SEAS OF 5-7
FT EXPECTED. ELY WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KT BUT GUSTS TO 25 KT WITH
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT AT OUR OFFSHORE BUOYS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 15-20 KT CONTINUE BUT
WITH SEAS 4-6 FT, THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THIS
PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN TO SLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF LULL IN SCA
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...POST-FRONTAL SURGE WILL PRODUCE A WLY
WIND NEAR 20 KT BUT STRONG MIXING MAY YIELD GUSTS THAT APPROACH
GALES THRU EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE WSR-88D LOCATED AT FORT DIX NJ WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST UNTIL
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 30. THE PARTS NEEDED TO REPAIR THE RADAR ARE ON
ORDER.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
EQUIPMENT...KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1223 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM EASTERN CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
DELMARVA OVERNIGHT. LIFT IS SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SE PA INTO CENTRAL NJ. THIS
BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY NOT COME UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE AS
DEPICTED ON THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS. CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME
NORTH OF THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION TOWARD SUNRISE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK TO BE IN THE 40`S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. A FEW MINOR LOCALIZED ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ON THE 12;30 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THERE SHOULD BE RAINFALL ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING TO OUR
SOUTH AS THE MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. RAINFALL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE THE
RAINFALL TAPERS OFF.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH OUR AREA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP EVERYONE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN DELMARVA WHERE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE
AREA. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON MONDAY IN DELMARVA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH LEADS TO A
OVERRUNNING REGIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AS THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
PRIOR TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE PRESENT WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR KTTN AND TERMINALS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. KRDG AND KABE SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT. BRIEF
CEILING RESTRICTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE ARE NOT OF THE QUESTION
AS WELL THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS.
CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
ALL TAF SITES IN THE VFR RANGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE AT BOTH ACY AND MIV.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS AS BUOY 44091 REMAINS BOUNCING AROUND 5 FEET. BUOY 44009 AND
44065 ARE BELOW 5 FEET, SO IT WON`T BE LONG BEFORE 44091 FALLS
BELOW AS WELL. SO WE`LL KEEP THE ENDING TIME OF 6 PM FOR NOW. ONCE
THE SEAS FALL BELOW 5 FEET, THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS MAY AGAIN APPROACH OR REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
FOR SEAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY WILL
LEAD TO WESTERLY WINDS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THOSE WINDS
MEETING THE SCA CRITERIA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE WSR-88D LOCATED AT FORT DIX NJ WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST UNTIL
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 30. THE PARTS NEEDED TO REPAIR THE RADAR ARE ON
ORDER.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
905 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015
.UPDATE...
...WARM NOVEMBER FINISHING UP ON A FAMILIAR NOTE...
CURRENT...WEAKENING HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS HAS BEEN
PRETTY MUCH ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE NEW
ENGLAND ATTM. LIGHT TO MODERATE ENE TO EAST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS ECFL EARLY THIS EVENING. PRECIP REMAINS VERY LIGHT ATTM AND
CONSISTS OF SCATTERED SPRINKLES WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EMBEDDED WITHIN. ACTIVITY IS CONFINED SOUTH OF LK KISM LINE...BUT
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS
TO REACH THE KISM RIVER.
3.9UM IR SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU WHICH FORMED THIS AFTERNOON
IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PENINSULA...WITH ANOTHER SWATH LURKING
OFFSHORE THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS RIGHT AROUND
80F AREAWIDE...MILD TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS EVENING...MOSTLY L70S
WITH SOME U60S IN A FEW LOCALES.
REST OF TONIGHT...LOCAL WIND/MOISTURE PROFILE SUPPORTS OVERNIGHT FOG
/LOW CLOUDS AND BOTH THE MOS GUIDANCE AND CURRENT IS ON TOP OF IT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WILL DELAY ONSET A FEW HOURS AS INLAND T/TD SPREADS ARE STILL
ABOUT 6-9F...AND THOSE WON`T NARROW APPRECIABLY UNTIL THE CLOUDS
BREAK UP AND TEMPS COOL A LITTLE FASTER. CONSEQUENTLY...NUDGED START
TIME IN THE GRIDS BACK A BIT. EXPANDED AREAL COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT ALSO A WEE BIT BACK TOWARD THE COAST
(THOUGH WEST OF I-95 FROM BREVARD CO SWD AS INLAND MESONET SITES
SHOW NARROWER (1-2F) SPREAD THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...FORECAST CONTINGENT UPON SC DECK WITH CIGS OVC-BKN040-
060 BREAKING UP BY AROUND 06Z. FOR THE NORTH/INTERIOR 5 AERODROMES
WENT WITH PREVAILING CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR 1-2SM AOB BKN-OVC005
WITH OCNL LIFR-VLIFR AFTER 09Z-13Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS THERE TO LINGER
THROUGH LATE MORNING. USED TIX AS A TRANSITION POINT WITH SPOTTY MVFR
THERE...AND FOR THE MLB-SUA COASTAL CORRIDOR... VCSH WITH OCNL MVFR
CIGS NEAR BKN025.
&&
.MARINE...NO CHGS. SEAS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 4-5FT NEAR SHORE/NORTH
AND UP TO 6FT WELL OFFSHORE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE. WILL KEEP
CAUTIONARY STMT FOR SEAS THERE WITH ENE-E WINDS BELOW 15KT.
&&
UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX UPDATES...WIMMER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015/
TUESDAY...RIDGE AXIS SETTLES CLOSER TO THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF SOME ONSHORE
MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.
POPS REMAIN LOW ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT...ESE LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH
MILD LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
WED...LOW LVL S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NRN FL IN
THE AFTN WILL ALLOW FOR WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ESPEC ACROSS FAR SRN
AREAS IN THE AFTN WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AIDED BY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR AND JUST INLAND
FROM THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER.
WED NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL FL AND MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS THE SRN FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS
NRN AREAS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. THE SHALLOW FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MID LVL UPGLIDE WITH ENHANCED
LIFT NEAR H7 AND ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE LIFT DEVELOPING DEVELOPING
ON THE IN RR ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPPER JET NEAR THE MID ATLC.
THU...STRONG UPGLIDE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER AND DEEPER JET INDUCED LIFT
WILL SPELL HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHTNING
STORM ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST ON THU. MODEL
QPF AMOUNT INDICATE LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIRMASS FROM 2.0 TO
2.2 INCHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
FROM 70 PCT SOUTH TO 40-50 PCT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.
THU NIGHT-MONDAY...ECMWF/GFS STILL IN DIFFERENT CAMPS WITH SPEED AND
EVOLUTION OF S/W TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE S/W TO OUR EAST
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AS THE SYSTEM GETS CUT
OFF BY A BUILDING MID LVL RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLC. HAVE LEANED TWD
THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE.
WILL CONTINUE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES SRN SECTIONS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NRN AREAS. WILL SEE SCATTERED ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS IN BOTH SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AND STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIKELY BECOMING WINDY
ALONG THE COAST FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TWD THE MID ATLC. STILL LARGE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT S/W TROUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE A CHANCE OF ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS INTO MONDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME BY DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION...
BROKEN/OVERCAST VFR CEILINGS (040-050) LINGERING THROUGH SUNSET
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. VFR ALONG THE COAST OUTSIDE OF BRIEF -SHRA
MOVING ONSHORE (GENERALLY SOUTH OF KTIX). SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS...ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH WEAKER NEAR-SURFACE
WINDS...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS (CURRENTLY OVER NORTH
FLORIDA) SETTLES CLOSER TO THE AREA...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO
WEAKEN AND VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM CURRENT 4-6 FEET TO 3-5 FEET ON TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE WHERE
LINGERING 6-FOOT SWELLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
WED-SAT...SWELLS WILL DIMINISH INTO MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. INITIAL WIND SURGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MAY ELEVATE WINDS
TO SCEC LEVELS THU AND THEN ONSHORE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FRIDAY.
STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND 9-12 FT OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 66 80 66 80 / 10 20 10 20
MCO 65 83 66 84 / 10 20 10 20
MLB 67 81 68 83 / 20 20 10 20
VRB 67 82 66 83 / 20 20 10 20
LEE 63 82 67 82 / 10 10 10 20
SFB 66 83 66 82 / 10 20 10 20
ORL 66 83 68 83 / 10 20 10 20
FPR 69 81 67 83 / 20 20 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1257 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS TO THE NORTH HAS CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED
THIS WEEKEND. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE WIND TO RELAX SOME ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. ALSO, DRY AIR HAS REMAINED IN PLACE, KEEPING MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AT BAY. THERE HAVE BEEN, AND STILL ARE, A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER, THEY ARE FAST
MOVING, LIGHT, AND FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH THE SHORE. SO,
NO MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, AS THERE IS NO
EXPECTED IMPACT FOR THE AIRPORTS. SO, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH A CONTINUED EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHTER TONIGHT. THEY WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015/
UPDATE...
SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, OFF THE MIAMI COAST. THEY ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AROUND
7 FT OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST. THEREFORE, CANCELLED THE SCA FOR A
PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
OTHERWISE, VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWING DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE CWA FOR NOW.
ALSO, WIND STREAMLINES ALOFT ARE STILL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG INVERSION AT
ABOUT 850MB AND DRY AIR FROM 850MB UP. PWATS ARE ONLY .9 INCHES.
SO, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY OVER
THE MAINLAND. THE HRRR DOES SUPPORT THIS FOR THE MOST PART. IT
DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH ONSHORE, WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE RADAR, BUT THE ACTIVITY IS VERY SPARES AND LIGHT
IN NATURE. SO, POSSIBLY AN OFF CHANCE OF A VERY LIGHT SHOWER FROM
MIAMI SOUTH, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY, JUST A FEW SPRINKLES, IF THAT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE ONGOING PATTERN FROM THE
PAST FEW DAYS AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER
THE BAHAMAS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING.
STILL EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT DEFINITELY NOT AS STRONG AS LATE LAST WEEK.
RADAR IS QUIETER THAN IT HAS BEEN WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST. THE PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AFFECTING THE EAST COAST AT TIMES WITH PERHAPS
A FEW MORE TONIGHT AS MODELS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. INTERIOR AND GULF COAST REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.
HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW HAS GENERATED RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS REPORTED
YESTERDAY AT SOUTH BEACH ALONG WITH SEVERAL RESCUES. THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
INTO THE WORK WEEK.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE EAST COAST BY MID WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT COLLAPSES, WHILE MID-LEVEL WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY
BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALSO MOVING EASTWARDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN THE PREVAILING FORECAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
EAST COAST, WITH CHANCES STARTING TO CREEP BACK INTO THE INTERIOR
AND GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AS THE VEERING FLOW ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE A GULF COAST BREEZE. SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...STILL SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH THE
GFS CONTINUING TO BE THE FASTER OF THE TWO. EVEN WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF, IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH
SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP, IT LOOKS
LIKE A WET FEW DAYS WHILE THE FRONT STALLS OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA LATE WEEK. SOME COOLING WITH THE TROUGH ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS FOR A FEW STORMS THURS-FRI, BUT WILL KEEP THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A STEADY INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE AND DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 70S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SLIGHT COOLING/DRYING IS POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONT`S PUSH SOUTH IS HIGH.
CERTAINLY THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT COOL AIR IS IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
MARINE...BUOY 41114 OFF FT PIERCE STILL REPORTING OCCASIONAL
7FT SEAS SO LIKELY SOME STILL FILTERING INTO THE GULF STREAM OFF
AT LEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY. THOUGH SEAS MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER OFF
BROWARD AND MIAMI- DADE, WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER NEAR
18-20KTS SO WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IF DOWNWARD TRENDS IN SEAS AND WINDS ARE A LITTLE FASTER,
THE ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED EARLIER. GULF BOATING
CONDITIONS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE WITH CONTINUING NE WINDS 10-15KTS
AND SEAS 1-3FT.
GRADIENT COLLAPSES INTO MIDWEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN US MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER EASTERLY 5-10KTS BY TUESDAY AND
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH FOR GULF
BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEARSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND POSSIBLY ON
TUESDAY WHICH WOULD BRING DIRECTION AROUND TO THE WEST. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2FT OR LESS FOR ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 83 75 85 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 81 74 83 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 72 82 75 84 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 67 85 69 85 / 0 20 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1122 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, OFF THE MIAMI COAST. THEY ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AROUND
7 FT OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST. THEREFORE, CANCELLED THE SCA FOR A
PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
OTHERWISE, VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWING DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE CWA FOR NOW.
ALSO, WIND STREAMLINES ALOFT ARE STILL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG INVERSION AT
ABOUT 850MB AND DRY AIR FROM 850MB UP. PWATS ARE ONLY .9 INCHES.
SO, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY OVER
THE MAINLAND. THE HRRR DOES SUPPORT THIS FOR THE MOST PART. IT
DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH ONSHORE, WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE RADAR, BUT THE ACTIVITY IS VERY SPARES AND LIGHT
IN NATURE. SO, POSSIBLY AN OFF CHANCE OF A VERY LIGHT SHOWER FROM
MIAMI SOUTH, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY, JUST A FEW SPRINKLES, IF THAT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST A FEW SPOTTY, FAST MOVING SHRA MOVING
IN FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SITES. DECIDED TO
KEEP VCSH OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR EAST COAST SITES AS THEY WILL BE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH LITTLE, IF ANY, IMPACTS. LOW PROB OF
BRIEF MVFR, THAT`S IT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BECOME NE AT 10-15 KT
AT ALL SITES WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT AND SUBSIDING AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE ONGOING PATTERN FROM THE
PAST FEW DAYS AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER
THE BAHAMAS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING.
STILL EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT DEFINITELY NOT AS STRONG AS LATE LAST WEEK.
RADAR IS QUIETER THAN IT HAS BEEN WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST. THE PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AFFECTING THE EAST COAST AT TIMES WITH PERHAPS
A FEW MORE TONIGHT AS MODELS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. INTERIOR AND GULF COAST REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.
HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW HAS GENERATED RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS REPORTED
YESTERDAY AT SOUTH BEACH ALONG WITH SEVERAL RESCUES. THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
INTO THE WORK WEEK.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE EAST COAST BY MID WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT COLLAPSES, WHILE MID-LEVEL WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY
BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALSO MOVING EASTWARDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN THE PREVAILING FORECAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
EAST COAST, WITH CHANCES STARTING TO CREEP BACK INTO THE INTERIOR
AND GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AS THE VEERING FLOW ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE A GULF COAST BREEZE. SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...STILL SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH THE
GFS CONTINUING TO BE THE FASTER OF THE TWO. EVEN WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF, IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH
SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP, IT LOOKS
LIKE A WET FEW DAYS WHILE THE FRONT STALLS OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA LATE WEEK. SOME COOLING WITH THE TROUGH ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS FOR A FEW STORMS THURS-FRI, BUT WILL KEEP THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A STEADY INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE AND DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 70S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SLIGHT COOLING/DRYING IS POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONT`S PUSH SOUTH IS HIGH.
CERTAINLY THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT COOL AIR IS IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
MARINE...BUOY 41114 OFF FT PIERCE STILL REPORTING OCCASIONAL
7FT SEAS SO LIKELY SOME STILL FILTERING INTO THE GULF STREAM OFF
AT LEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY. THOUGH SEAS MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER OFF
BROWARD AND MIAMI- DADE, WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER NEAR
18-20KTS SO WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IF DOWNWARD TRENDS IN SEAS AND WINDS ARE A LITTLE FASTER,
THE ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED EARLIER. GULF BOATING
CONDITIONS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE WITH CONTINUING NE WINDS 10-15KTS
AND SEAS 1-3FT.
GRADIENT COLLAPSES INTO MIDWEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN US MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER EASTERLY 5-10KTS BY TUESDAY AND
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH FOR GULF
BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEARSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND POSSIBLY ON
TUESDAY WHICH WOULD BRING DIRECTION AROUND TO THE WEST. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2FT OR LESS FOR ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 82 74 83 75 / 10 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 72 81 74 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 83 72 82 75 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 83 67 85 69 / 0 0 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1243 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHRA MOVING IN FROM TIME
TO TIME ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SITES. DECIDED TO PUT VCSH FOR
EAST COAST SITES BUT THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACTS. LOW PROB OF BRIEF MVFR, THAT`S IT. OTHERWISE,
WINDS BECOMING N-NW ALONG ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST SITES
AND APF AS PER ENSEMBLE OF HIGH RES MODELS AND LAMP GUIDANCE. ON
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NE AT 10-15 KT AT ALL SITES WITH SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST A FEW SHRA MOVING IN FROM TIME TO TIME
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. DECIDED TO KEEP VCSH OUT AT THIS TIME AS
THE SHRA ARE FORECAST TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACTS. LOW PROB OF BRIEF MVFR, THAT`S IT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT WHILE LIKELY BECOMING N-NW ALONG ALL BUT THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AS PER HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE. ON
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NE AT 10-15 KT AT ALL SITES WITH SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO OUR NORTH WITH A
CONTINUED LOOSENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS SUCH,
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT STILL JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVING INLAND ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY.
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW HAS GENERATED RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS REPORTED TODAY
AT SOUTH BEACH ALONG WITH SEVERAL RESCUES. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE
EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN HOW PRONOUNCED
THE TROUGH WILL BE AND IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL GET. GFS MOVES THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY THU WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THIS FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
THU AND STALLS IT OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. EITHER WAY...THERE DOES LOOK
TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE WEEK ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A STEADY INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE AND DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 70S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SLIGHT COOLING/DRYING IS POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONT`S PUSH SOUTH IS HIGH.
CERTAINLY THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT COOL AIR IS IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /GREGORIA
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND. THE
WIND IS ALREADY SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER,
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRETTY NON-EXISTENT TODAY AND SHORT
RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TREND WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE, BUT A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND
MOVING QUICKLY ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON ANY OF THE
TAF SITES.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID WEEK WITH WEAKENING SPEEDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO SLOWLY DECLINE. HOWEVER,
HAZARDOUS SEAS TO AROUND 7 FT ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF STREAM
THROUGH TOMORROW. /GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 83 74 84 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 82 74 83 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 72 84 73 84 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 66 85 68 85 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...52/PS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1258 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015/
UPDATE...
WEAK LOW MOVING NW INTO TN VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA STILL LOOKS TO RESULT IN RATHER
STRONG GRADIENT OF POPS THRU TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HRRR AND
WRF-ARW HI-RES HAS SEEMED TO HANDLE THE MORNING TRENDS THE BEST SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS WHICH KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
MAINLY BI-SECTING THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE
FLUX IN THE EVOLUTION. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY RAIN SO
SHOULD JUST BE ON AND OFF LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH NO THUNDER
EXPECTED. CLOUD COVERAGE HAS ALSO HAD A MORE CLEAR CUT GRADIENT SO
HAS ALLOWED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL GA TO WARM UP A BIT MORE THIS
MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED UP DAYTIME HIGHS ACCORDINGLY TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S IN PARTS OF CENTRAL GA WHILE NORTHERN SECTION
LIMITED TO 60S AND LOW 70S. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT VICINITY OF THE TN VALLEY SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES TRAVEL ALONG IT.
HOWEVER...A CONSTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST MOISTURE
SUPPLY SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTH GA. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE WITH
POSITIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES AND LITTLE CAPE EXPECTED. SO NO THUNDER
HAS BEEN INCLUDED. LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHERN THIRD...WITH POPS DIMINISHING TOWARD CENTRAL. A PORTION OF
SOUTH CENTRAL GA MAY NOT SEE ANY RAIN AT ALL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WARM EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN.
HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A WEAK WEDGE
DEVELOPS.
41
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MAIN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS MARKED AS SOME PREVIOUS CYCLES. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
REMAIN POTENTIALLY VERY WET ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF FINALLY PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN DRIER AIR. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY
TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ACTUALLY
CLOSING OFF A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SWEEPS A
QUICK OPEN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. BOTH MODELS KEEP A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
BUT THE GFS PULLS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE REGION FAIRLY DRY. FOR NOW I HAVE
CHOSEN TO NOT STRAY FROM THE BLEND WE HAVE BEEN USING THAT FAVORS THE
DRIER ECMWF TRENDS WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
20
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY
NORTH GA. LATEST QPF FORECAST GIVES TOTALS OF ABOUT 3.00 TO 4.00
INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE AREA FROM ROME TO HELEN AND NORTH.
LESSER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL GA. THERE DOES EXIST THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. HOWEVER WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME THAT WE WILL SEE THOSE AMOUNTS...OR IF THE RAIN WILL BE SPREAD
OUT LONG ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THE EFFECTS. SO NO FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CIGS IN 6-8 KFT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN SITES. GRADIENT OF BEST -RA CHANCES FLIRTS
WITH NORTHERN SITES AS WELL THOUGH MAY STAY NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED
AFTERNOON TEMPO GROUPS AND OVERNIGHT PREDOMINANT MENTION BUT MAY
END UP SHIFTING CHANCES EVEN MORE NORTH WITH LATER UPDATES.
OTHERWISE MVFR CIG POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. COULD HAVE MVFR VSBYS WITH AREAS OF PRECIP TOO. WINDS
INITIALLY SW FOR MOST SITES BECOMING LIGHT SSE NEAR KATL FOR
OVERNIGHT AND CALM FOR KAHN AND SOUTHERN SITES. MAY WAIVER FROM SW
TO SE ON MONDAY...THOUGH KAHN SHOULD HAVE BEST BET TO STAY SE FOR
MONDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR NORTHERN SITES AND MONDAY WIND DIRECTION
FOR KATL.
MEDIUM ON OVERNIGHT CIGS.
HIGH ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 72 54 64 53 / 40 60 60 40
ATLANTA 71 57 69 55 / 40 50 50 30
BLAIRSVILLE 62 54 60 51 / 80 80 80 70
CARTERSVILLE 66 56 68 54 / 60 70 70 50
COLUMBUS 77 56 74 57 / 10 10 20 10
GAINESVILLE 66 55 62 52 / 60 70 70 50
MACON 76 53 74 55 / 10 10 10 20
ROME 65 56 68 55 / 80 80 80 50
PEACHTREE CITY 72 55 71 54 / 30 40 40 30
VIDALIA 75 54 75 57 / 5 5 10 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41/BAKER
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1033 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
WEAK LOW MOVING NW INTO TN VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA STILL LOOKS TO RESULT IN RATHER
STRONG GRADIENT OF POPS THRU TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HRRR AND
WRF-ARW HI-RES HAS SEEMED TO HANDLE THE MORNING TRENDS THE BEST SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS WHICH KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
MAINLY BI-SECTING THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE
FLUX IN THE EVOLUTION. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY RAIN SO
SHOULD JUST BE ON AND OFF LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH NO THUNDER
EXPECTED. CLOUD COVERAGE HAS ALSO HAD A MORE CLEAR CUT GRADIENT SO
HAS ALLOWED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL GA TO WARM UP A BIT MORE THIS
MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED UP DAYTIME HIGHS ACCORDINGLY TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S IN PARTS OF CENTRAL GA WHILE NORTHERN SECTION
LIMITED TO 60S AND LOW 70S. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT VICINITY OF THE TN VALLEY SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES TRAVEL ALONG IT.
HOWEVER...A CONSTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST MOISTURE
SUPPLY SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTH GA. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE WITH
POSITIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES AND LITTLE CAPE EXPECTED. SO NO THUNDER
HAS BEEN INCLUDED. LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHERN THIRD...WITH POPS DIMINISHING TOWARD CENTRAL. A PORTION OF
SOUTH CENTRAL GA MAY NOT SEE ANY RAIN AT ALL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WARM EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN.
HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A WEAK WEDGE
DEVELOPS.
41
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MAIN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS MARKED AS SOME PREVIOUS CYCLES. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
REMAIN POTENTIALLY VERY WET ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF FINALLY PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN DRIER AIR. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY
TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ACTUALLY
CLOSING OFF A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SWEEPS A
QUICK OPEN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. BOTH MODELS KEEP A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
BUT THE GFS PULLS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE REGION FAIRLY DRY. FOR NOW I HAVE
CHOSEN TO NOT STRAY FROM THE BLEND WE HAVE BEEN USING THAT FAVORS THE
DRIER ECMWF TRENDS WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
20
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY
NORTH GA. LATEST QPF FORECAST GIVES TOTALS OF ABOUT 3.00 TO 4.00
INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE AREA FROM ROME TO HELEN AND NORTH.
LESSER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL GA. THERE DOES EXIST THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. HOWEVER WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME THAT WE WILL SEE THOSE AMOUNTS...OR IF THE RAIN WILL BE SPREAD
OUT LONG ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THE EFFECTS. SO NO FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.
41
&&
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 640 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
VFR EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD JUST AHEAD OF THE RAIN
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHWEST TODAY BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MVFR CEILINGS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 72 54 64 53 / 40 60 60 40
ATLANTA 71 57 69 55 / 40 50 50 30
BLAIRSVILLE 62 54 60 51 / 80 80 80 70
CARTERSVILLE 66 56 68 54 / 60 70 70 50
COLUMBUS 77 56 74 57 / 10 10 20 10
GAINESVILLE 66 55 62 52 / 60 70 70 50
MACON 76 53 74 55 / 10 10 10 20
ROME 65 56 68 55 / 80 80 80 50
PEACHTREE CITY 72 55 71 54 / 30 40 40 30
VIDALIA 75 54 75 57 / 5 5 10 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41/BAKER
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
901 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
Threat of measurable rainfall rapidly coming to an end across
central and southeast Illinois this evening as mid-level drying is
surging in from the west. However, lingering low-level
moisture/stratus keeps the threat of drizzle going for much of the
night. The cold front associated with the strong storm system
lifting into the Great Lakes will not arrive until Tuesday, so
southerly winds persisting through the night will keep
temperatures from falling too far overnight. Plan to adjust PoPs
for the rest of the night based on the latest trends, and only a
few other minor tweaks appear necessary at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
Initial batch of light rain has exited the forecast area early this
afternoon, however some patches of drizzle were persisting in the
low stratus. Next wave of light rain was crossing the Missouri
border near Quincy as of 2 pm, with some light rain/drizzle seen on
radar as far southwest as southwest Missouri. Have concentrated the
highest PoP`s into this evening across areas west of I-55 and
increased them somewhat.
Latest water vapor imagery showing large upper low centered over
Nebraska this afternoon. Dry slot is spreading northeast out of
Oklahoma and Kansas, and marks the back edge of the precipitation
shield along the cold front. A steady decrease in rain chances will
occur from west to east after midnight as this drier air arrives.
Latest RAP guidance suggests the cold front moving into areas near
the Illinois River in the 2-3 am time frame, reaching the Indiana
border toward 6 am. Until the front gets here, temperatures across
the forecast area likely to remain fairly steady this evening, and
most of the night across eastern Illinois.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
The slow moving upper low is forecast to be located over extreme
northwest Iowa Tuesday morning with a well defined dry slot pushing
into southwest Illinois. Most of the rain that occurs overnight
should be off to our east Tuesday morning with a decrease in cloud
cover from southwest to northeast during the morning. Soundings
continue to suggest gusty southwest winds during the day with
temperatures at or just above normal again, mostly in the 40s. The
upper low is then forecast to shift mostly east into southern
Wisconsin by Wednesday morning, which is a bit further south than
what we had been seeing, although the 12z ECMWF from yesterday was
hinting at this. The surface low will push across the lower Great
Lakes as well with a shortwave pivoting southeast into the area late
Tue. night into Wednesday morning which may bring some patchy light
snow or flurries to parts of the area.
With the further south position of the upper/surface lows, the wrap-
around moisture will drive further southeast into our forecast area
as well with some low chance POPs on Wednesday for flurries in the
morning, and sprinkles or flurries in the afternoon as the low level
cyclonic flow dominates into Wednesday night/early Thursday.
Temperatures will be colder as well during the day Wednesday with
afternoon readings in the upper 30s far north to the middle 40s
south, which is close to where they should be this time of year. A
rather quiet weather pattern will prevail through the remainder of
the extended forecast period as the deep upper low shifts away from
the Midwest with 500 mb heights building across the region. This
should result in a gradual moderating trend for the end of the week
with afternoon temperatures by Friday well into the 40s to low 50s.
No sign of any breakdown in the mild pattern for us into early next
week as the main longwave trof will be across the western part of
the country which should result in above normal temperatures for
much of our area through the weekend. A trof is expected to eject
east-northeast into the Southern Plains Sunday and into Missouri by
next Monday bringing a chance for rain to the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
Widespread IFR conditions and light showers/drizzle will continue
across the central Illinois terminal area through much of the
night. Conditions will improve to VFR Tuesday morning as a
trailing cold front from a storm system lifting into the Great
Lakes swings through the area. Gusty winds are likely for much of
the daytime hours in the wake of the front.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
559 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
Initial batch of light rain has exited the forecast area early this
afternoon, however some patches of drizzle were persisting in the
low stratus. Next wave of light rain was crossing the Missouri
border near Quincy as of 2 pm, with some light rain/drizzle seen on
radar as far southwest as southwest Missouri. Have concentrated the
highest PoP`s into this evening across areas west of I-55 and
increased them somewhat.
Latest water vapor imagery showing large upper low centered over
Nebraska this afternoon. Dry slot is spreading northeast out of
Oklahoma and Kansas, and marks the back edge of the precipitation
shield along the cold front. A steady decrease in rain chances will
occur from west to east after midnight as this drier air arrives.
Latest RAP guidance suggests the cold front moving into areas near
the Illinois River in the 2-3 am time frame, reaching the Indiana
border toward 6 am. Until the front gets here, temperatures across
the forecast area likely to remain fairly steady this evening, and
most of the night across eastern Illinois.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
The slow moving upper low is forecast to be located over extreme
northwest Iowa Tuesday morning with a well defined dry slot pushing
into southwest Illinois. Most of the rain that occurs overnight
should be off to our east Tuesday morning with a decrease in cloud
cover from southwest to northeast during the morning. Soundings
continue to suggest gusty southwest winds during the day with
temperatures at or just above normal again, mostly in the 40s. The
upper low is then forecast to shift mostly east into southern
Wisconsin by Wednesday morning, which is a bit further south than
what we had been seeing, although the 12z ECMWF from yesterday was
hinting at this. The surface low will push across the lower Great
Lakes as well with a shortwave pivoting southeast into the area late
Tue. night into Wednesday morning which may bring some patchy light
snow or flurries to parts of the area.
With the further south position of the upper/surface lows, the wrap-
around moisture will drive further southeast into our forecast area
as well with some low chance POPs on Wednesday for flurries in the
morning, and sprinkles or flurries in the afternoon as the low level
cyclonic flow dominates into Wednesday night/early Thursday.
Temperatures will be colder as well during the day Wednesday with
afternoon readings in the upper 30s far north to the middle 40s
south, which is close to where they should be this time of year. A
rather quiet weather pattern will prevail through the remainder of
the extended forecast period as the deep upper low shifts away from
the Midwest with 500 mb heights building across the region. This
should result in a gradual moderating trend for the end of the week
with afternoon temperatures by Friday well into the 40s to low 50s.
No sign of any breakdown in the mild pattern for us into early next
week as the main longwave trof will be across the western part of
the country which should result in above normal temperatures for
much of our area through the weekend. A trof is expected to eject
east-northeast into the Southern Plains Sunday and into Missouri by
next Monday bringing a chance for rain to the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
Widespread IFR conditions and light showers/drizzle will continue
across the central Illinois terminal area through much of the
night. Conditions will improve to VFR Tuesday morning as a
trailing cold front from a storm system lifting into the Great
Lakes swings through the area. Gusty winds are likely for much of
the daytime hours in the wake of the front.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
627 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS EVENING AND
ASSESS POTENTIAL HEADLINE UPDATES LATER THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT BEGINNING TO ARRIVE OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TO CENTRAL IA. SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
GOOD SIDE OF FREEZING AND SHOULD KEEP THAT TREND FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS DESPITE TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGINNING TO COOL. EVENTUALLY
WITH HAVE MIXED PHASES OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 32 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IA WITH SUB SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S THEN BOTH BEING COOLER OVER THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
MITIGATE ICY POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS WELL. EXPECT NEXT
HEADLINE UPDATE OUT BY 9 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
DRY SLOT CURRENTLY WORKING INTO IOWA WITH BROAD PRECIPITATION AREA
LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST IS RAIN AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. HOWEVER...STILL SOME MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW
IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WITH ONLY SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST. AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN FROM TWO TO FIVE INCHES IN FAR WEST CENTRAL TO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST. BOTH THE NAM AND THE HRRR INDICATE SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ON NORTHERN EDGE OF DRY SLOT THIS EVENING AND ANTICIPATE
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION PERSISTING MAINLY NORTH OF I80.
THEREAFTER...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS TROF AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE. MAY
BEGIN TO SEE SOME WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL EDGE INTO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN AS WELL THAT WITH SOME LACK OF SATURATION
ALOFT...FREEZING DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH. THIS STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE THREAT IN THE ZONES. AS FOR
HEADLINES...ADJUSTED AREAS AFTER MIDDAY AND WILL LEAVE CURRENT
ALIGNMENT IN PLACE FOR NOW UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF PCPN MOVES THRU.
LIKELY WILL SEE SOME CANCELLATION AND/OR DOWNGRADE OF MUCH OF THE
WARNING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF FINAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
CROSSING MISSOURI RIVER INTO WESTERN IOWA.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
BROAD UPPER LOW IMPACTING THE STATE...AND CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST SLOWLY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MOVING OVER IOWA TUESDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM WRAPPED UP WITH A CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD LIFT WITH THE LOW ALOFT...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE SO ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LIFT SO ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...WITH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS AND ALSO MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY SOME
LINGERING LIGHT FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITH LOW CLOUDS REMAINING IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE CLEARING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. H85 TEMPS
WARM ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL US ALOFT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE WITH H85 TEMP CLIMBING
TO AROUND +6C TO +8C OR HIGHER BY SATURDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL US BY MONDAY...WHICH
COULD INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY STAY TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
IOWA...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED IF IT DOES.
&&
.AVIATION...01/00Z
ISSUED AT 618 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS IOWA MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF MVFR
OVER SOUTHERN IOWA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
SNOW AGAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CRAWFORD-EMMET-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-
WINNEBAGO.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR BOONE-BREMER-
BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HARDIN-STORY-
WEBSTER-WORTH-WRIGHT.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DONAVON
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
548 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW IN SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH AN 850MB
WARM FRONT RUNNING FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL IOWA. LARGE AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE RAN FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND OHIO
VALLEYS. RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS AN EXPANDING AREA OF
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN IOWA.
18Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW JUST SOUTH OF KOMA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RUNNING SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 30S AND HIGHER FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. RAP MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE THE RAIN SHOULD EXPAND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS INDICATES A LACK OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF MISSOURI. THUS THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT THE RAIN MAY START
ENDING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND END ACROSS
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
THERMAL PROFILES SHOW THE PRECIPITATION BEING ALL RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERMAL PROFILES START
COOLING AS THE FORCING EXITS THE AREA. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES
WILL THE RAIN END BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. BASED ON WHAT THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT SHOULD END UP BEING
ALL RAIN...OR...THERE MIGHT BE A VERY BRIEF MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION ENDING.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.
ON TUESDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE WRAP AROUND CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. AS COLDER
AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA...FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND MID DAY IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA AND SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A TRACE TO DUSTING AT BEST AND SHOULD ONLY OCCUR
ON ELEVATED SURFACES OR GRASS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
NIGHT. AFTER THIS PERIOD...RIDGING MOVES IN AND A WARMING TREND
TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
H5 CLOSED LOW SLOWLY ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH OCCLUDED
SFC LOW WILL LEAD TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. H5 CVA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE
FORCING...IT APPEARS THAT WHILE THE TEMP PROFILE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...THERE IS A LACK OF LOW LEVEL RISING MOTION
AND PRODUCTION OF SNOW. THE BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...WENT WITH LOW CHC SN- ACROSS THIS
AREA WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND OCCURS. HIRES 4KM NAM SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...THIS SUPPORTS THE GFS AND
LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING.
REST OF THE EXTENDED...
H5 RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL LEAD TO QUIET
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A WARMING PATTERN
WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AVERAGE AND THEN ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW AND THE SUBSEQUENT WARMING OF TEMPS. AFTER
THIS...ANOTHER H5 TROF APPROACHES THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT IS TOO SOON WITH THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO DETERMINE IF PRECIP AT NIGHT WILL BE FROZEN
OR LIQUID.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL TEND TOWARD IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS
IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE LASTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT WHEN A COOL
FRONT PASSES. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY TO 20+ KTS WITH CEILINGS RISING TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY BETWEEN 2-3K AGL VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 6 MILES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
246 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
20Z water vapor imagery shows an upper low over UT cut off from the
mean westerlies with a vort max rotating around the southwest quad
of the upper low. A fetch of mid level moisture continues to feed
into the central plains within southwest flow, although it is
shifted a little further east. At the surface, a broad area of high
pressure remains over the region. Current trends show the surface
high weakening this morning. Temps have effectively been steady with
overcast skies an neutral temperature advection.
The weather will get worse for north central and parts of northeast
KS before getting better. Models continue to show large scale
forcing overspreading the forecast area as the vort max over Las
Vegas lifts through the central plains late tonight. Large scale
assent is progged to overspread the area leading to widespread
precip overnight and Monday morning. Unfortunately the cold air at
the surface is likely to remain right about where it is. Models seem
to gradually be coming into agreement with the thermal profiles,
although the GFS continues to be the warmer solution while the HRRR
and RAP tend to keep the freezing line about where it is now. From a
big picture view, temps will be steady through the night. However
from a perspective of the precip type forecast, where the freezing
line sets up will have a major impact. The forecast tends to regard
the GFS as a slightly warm outlier which has verified to warm
recently. With this in mind think an axis of freezing rain from
Abilene through Marysville is probable. Models are generating
between a third and a half inch of QPF with the system overnight.
With temps expected to be right at or a degree or two colder than
freezing, think significant ice accumulations are possible and I
have a quarter to a third of an inch within that corridor. The model
forecast soundings also show a small window across north central KS
where there is ice in the cloud and a thermal profile hovering
around freezing. This could allow for some minor accumulations of
snow from Concordia to Washington and northwest. At this point it
looks like there could be around an inch of snow just west of the
axis if ice accumulations. From Emporia to Topeka and areas east,
temperatures are expected to remain just above freezing through the
night with precip remaining all rain. I am relatively confident in
this scenario happening, but there is a higher than normal risk in
being off on the location depending on where freezing temps set up.
Will issue a warning for the areas most likely to see the damaging
ice accumulations and have an advisory in the remaining north
central counties for a mix of freezing rain and snow.
Models are still on track in lifting the forcing north of the area
during the afternoon. Therefore precip should taper off during the
day. As the surface low lifts north, a Pacific cold front sweeps
through shifting winds to the west with weak cold air advection
occurring. Since there should not be a lot of insolation, afternoon
highs Monday are not anticipated to be much more than 5 or 10
degrees warmer than the morning temps.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
Tomorrow night the mid/upper level low pressure center is forecast
to lift northeastward over the upper Midwest. There is the potential
for a shortwave rotating around the main mid level low to pass
over northeast KS during the day Tuesday. Models are indicating
fairly light precip is possible near the NE state line in the form
of rain or snow. After that there is a trend of quiet weather going
through next weekend. This current system will push the moisture well
into the gulf for several days as a reinforcing trough drops down
from western Canada. Surface high pressure gradually migrates
across the central US with temperatures warming into the 40s and
50s by the end of the week. Towards the end of the weekend a mid
level low pressure digs over the southern Rockies and eventually
the plains. This system will have some return flow ahead of it
although the moisture appears limited for now. This system has a
better chance of producing mostly rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
IFR continues will prevail through the period. Think temps will
remain just above freezing at TOP and FOE with MHK potentially
hovering a degree on either side of freezing. Stronger forcing
overnight is expected to lead to widespread precip and LIFR CIGS
with the heavier precip.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
KSZ008>011-020>023-034>038-054.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
120 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
...updated short and long...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
Main attention was to the system moving through tonight. An upper level
trof will swing out from the central Rockies and out across the Central
Plains. The 400-hPa pv anomaly will move basically right over the forecast
area with resultant QG forcing increasing. A band is indicated by the
ARW to develop across west-central Kansas. The HRRR and 4 km nam show
more activity across south-central Kansas. Precip type looks to be
mainly snow across west-central Kansas and mixed precip type across
south-central Kansas. Did expand the advisory south as some ice accumulation
is possible with the largest amounts across Pratt, Barber, and Stafford
counties. The "heavy" snow fall axis looks to extend from Syracuse to
Hays... up to 3".
.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
The system will eject by 18Z tomorrow with pops rapidly decreasing as
isentropic downglide develops in the wake of the synoptic trof. The
rest of the forecast is primarily dry. The superblend does crank out
some slight pops next weekend. Left the superblend solution alone since
attention was geared to the short term domain. The overall extended
does feature moderating temperatures and lack of any significant trofs
until next weekend, potentially.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
Poor flight conditions all around. Not a period for VFR/GA pilots. LIFR/IFR
conditions today will continue. Winds will be light and variable.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 33 20 42 / 60 60 0 0
GCK 25 32 17 40 / 80 70 0 0
EHA 25 36 19 44 / 30 30 0 0
LBL 27 36 20 44 / 40 30 0 0
HYS 26 32 20 37 / 80 80 0 0
P28 30 36 23 44 / 70 30 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to
noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-
074>081-090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1017 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
...Update Aviation Section...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
Mesoscale models including the HRRR and RAP13 are all showing an
area of light freezing rain spreading northeast out of western
Oklahoma after midnight. The western part of this area will sweep
through that part of south central Kansas that is already under
a winter weather advisory. Have extended the advisory through the
rest of tonight until 12z Sunday to account for some additional
light ice accumulations which could add up to a few more hundredths
later tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
Have been watching radar trends over the last few hours across south-
central Kansas. The HRRR and ECMWF show some additional snow showers
possible this afternoon developing on the 850-hPa baroclinic zone. As
a result, have extended the winter weather advisory across south-central
Kansas until 6 pm. There is a chance that this advisory might run a
little long and might need to be canceled earlier if WSR-88D trends
bear this out. Otherwise, much of the area will remain dry. The atmosphere
will remain fairly saturated through the overnight that freezing drizzle
looks fairly likely. Minimums should be in the 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
Southwest Kansas will still remain in a favorable jet streak position
for some light snow showers tomorrow night. In addition to dynamic lift
aloft, there will be a 850-700-hPa baroclinic zone passing through.
Some low level isentropic lift should lead to some snow showers across
the northern zones late Sunday night and into Monday morning. Have
issued a winter weather advisory up north since light snow amounts
(1-3") are possible and people still could be traveling back home
from holiday travels. Current snow amounts may be a tad high, but
still feel that the I70 corridor could become slick again. After
this event, we enter a dry period with dry northerly flow aloft and
weak high pressure at the sfc. There might be some showers in about
a week from now along a front. The superblend pops look fine for
now. Temperatures will moderate through the end of the weekend and
into the upcoming business week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
Widespread IFR conditions will continue through the period as the
remnant arctic airmass slowly modifies and low level saturated
flow become increasingly upslope. Freezing drizzle will be
confined to areas of central and south central KS for the most
part. Winds at the surface will remain light at 7 knots or less
through the period. Widespread light winter precipitation will
develop again late tonight as a low slowly deepens across far northeastern
New Mexico.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 23 32 26 35 / 20 30 60 10
GCK 22 31 25 33 / 10 30 70 10
EHA 22 34 23 36 / 10 30 40 10
LBL 23 34 25 36 / 20 30 40 10
HYS 23 28 26 33 / 20 60 80 50
P28 28 34 28 38 / 60 30 60 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for KSZ066-080-081-
088>090.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for
KSZ030-031-043>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
248 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
Light rains are spreading back northeast across much of the area.
Considering regional radar trends and water vapor imagery, it will
likely be well into the evening hours before it comes to an end
from west to east. The latest HRRR suggests a rapid drying trend
from west to east from 00Z-03Z. As winds drop off into the
overnight hours, drizzle and fog are likely to develop, so added
in areas of drizzle to most of the region.
A weak warm front will try to move through the region Monday, but
it will not be significant enough to even generate a few breaks
in the low overcast. The warm frontal passage is associated with a
rather intense storm system lifting northeast through the
northern Plains/upper Midwest.
The 12Z models continue to be all over the place with QPF Monday
and Monday night. Odds are that the moisture we have been fighting
all weekend will be lifted back across west Kentucky, at the
least, Monday afternoon and night. The models hint at shower
development over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois mainly
on the trailing cold front Monday night, so will keep at least a
chance PoP throughout the region, but likely to categorical PoPs
will been posted in the southeast.
Some rain may linger in the far east/southeast into Tuesday morning,
but it still appears that we will finally dry out Tuesday afternoon
and Tuesday night.
Will stay close to consensus for highs and lows through the
period.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
High confidence in the extended.
Models are in good agreement with high pressure setting up over the
heartland and dominating the weather pattern. So high and dry will
be the ruling weather factor for the extended. We will start out
slightly below normal for temperatures but as the axis of the surface
high drifts east a southerly flow will resume and bring us slightly
above normal temperatures for the rest of the weekend. The next
chance of rain will arrive day eight or nine as a an upper low
impacts the area early next week. Even then the low will originate
out of the southwest with no significant cold air foreseen in its
wake.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1144 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
IFR ceilings cover the entire region today, along with northeast
winds around 10kts. MVFR visibilities should accompany the rain as
it moves across all but possibly the KEVV terminal this afternoon,
but would not completely rule out a period of IFR visibilities in
the rain. The rain should exit early this evening, but figure that
the MVFR visibilities will remain. As winds die off later tonight,
expect deteriorating conditions in drizzle and fog. Those conditions
may linger through the end of the period, as winds will struggle
to pick up before 18Z.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1236 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND THE
LATEST HRRR AND RUC. OVERALL...THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
PRECIP HAS MOSTLY TAPERED OFF OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SATURATION IN THAT AREA WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW THE BULK OF THE TIME INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN THE FAR NORTH...AND HAVE ALSO CHANGED PRECIP TYPE
TO DRIZZLE IN AREAS LACKING DEEP MOISTURE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND IS NOW NEAR THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA STRETCHED SW TO NE. MOST OF
THE STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SHOWERS
NEAR THE TN BORDER. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE KEEPS FILLING BACK IN EVEN
NORTH OF THE FRONT. REGARDLESS...HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK NORTH OF
THE FRONT A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PER MOST
RECENT HRRR. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
COOLER TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT. STILL EXPECT CLOUD CEILINGS TO
REMAIN LOW TODAY...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO FALL OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM
SW/WAYNE COUNTY TO NE/ROWAN COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND EVENTUALLY REACH
THE TN/VA BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THIS FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD...COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...HELPING TO LIMIT RAIN IN THAT AREA. IN FACT...RAIN TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE BEEN LESS THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGEST AREA-WIDE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL ONCE
IT REACHES THE TN/VA BORDER. THEN A SECOND WAVE/SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WITH
TEMPS DIPPING TOWARDS 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTH BUT STAYING NEAR 60
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
THE DYNAMIC WEATHER REMAINS FRONT-LOADED WITHIN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
DEEPENING SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE PROLONGED WET WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY ARCS IN FROM THE WEST. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS RUNNING WAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF FORCING WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE BETWEEN THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS.
AT THIS POINT...ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF QPF IS PREDICTED
BY THE MODELS IN A 36 HOUR PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ALIGNING ALONG
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THIS MAY OR MAY NOT RESULT IN SOME
SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG CREEKS...STREAMS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
RIVER POINTS...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH FALLS PRIOR TO THIS...AND
IF THESE AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
THINGS PRETTY GENERALIZED FOR THE HWO.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW 50S...AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
CONDITIONS NO BETTER THAN IFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1214 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND THE
LATEST HRRR AND RUC. OVERALL...THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
PRECIP HAS MOSTLY TAPERED OFF OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SATURATION IN THAT AREA WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW THE BULK OF THE TIME INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN THE FAR NORTH...AND HAVE ALSO CHANGED PRECIP TYPE
TO DRIZZLE IN AREAS LACKING DEEP MOISTURE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND IS NOW NEAR THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA STRETCHED SW TO NE. MOST OF
THE STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SHOWERS
NEAR THE TN BORDER. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE KEEPS FILLING BACK IN EVEN
NORTH OF THE FRONT. REGARDLESS...HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK NORTH OF
THE FRONT A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PER MOST
RECENT HRRR. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
COOLER TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT. STILL EXPECT CLOUD CEILINGS TO
REMAIN LOW TODAY...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO FALL OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM
SW/WAYNE COUNTY TO NE/ROWAN COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND EVENTUALLY REACH
THE TN/VA BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THIS FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD...COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...HELPING TO LIMIT RAIN IN THAT AREA. IN FACT...RAIN TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE BEEN LESS THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGEST AREA-WIDE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL ONCE
IT REACHES THE TN/VA BORDER. THEN A SECOND WAVE/SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WITH
TEMPS DIPPING TOWARDS 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTH BUT STAYING NEAR 60
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
THE DYNAMIC WEATHER REMAINS FRONT-LOADED WITHIN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
DEEPENING SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE PROLONGED WET WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY ARCS IN FROM THE WEST. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS RUNNING WAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF FORCING WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE BETWEEN THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS.
AT THIS POINT...ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF QPF IS PREDICTED
BY THE MODELS IN A 36 HOUR PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ALIGNING ALONG
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THIS MAY OR MAY NOT RESULT IN SOME
SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG CREEKS...STREAMS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
RIVER POINTS...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH FALLS PRIOR TO THIS...AND
IF THESE AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
THINGS PRETTY GENERALIZED FOR THE HWO.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW 50S...AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AFFECTING THE TAF
SITES. CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO LIFR CRITERIA AREA WIDE...WITH VARYING
VISIBILITIES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY
WITH RAIN ON AND OFF AS THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE TN BORDER.
THAT BEING SAID...KSME AND KLOZ WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST RAIN
TODAY AS THE FRONT STALLS. WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT DECENT FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN ANY
LOCATION NORTH OF THE FRONT SO HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
602 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.AVIATION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MVFR STRATUS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT MAINTAIN SCT MENTION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY ATTM.
WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A PERIOD OF BKN-OVC CIGS AS ENE
FLOW PERSIST AND LACK OF DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING GOING FORWARD
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS AREA TO BUILD TOWARDS TERMINALS TO SOME
EXTENT OVERNIGHT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BELOW 5000FT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
A ZONE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND ONTARIO SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY BALANCED TODAY DUE TO BLOCKED FLOW
AND NO IDENTIFIABLE SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES. AS A RESULT...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IN
A THERMALLY RECEPTIVE AND HOSPITABLE ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS NOT A
HUGE DIFFERENCE WITH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -10C OVER GEORGIAN
BAY TO 1C OVER THE DTX CWA. THE LAKE ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN REASONABLY
ACTIVE GAUGING FROM BOTH THE BEHAVIOR OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS OUT
OVER THE LAKE AS WELL AS THE EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS THAT PERSISTS
ALONG AND ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. THERE HAS BEEN NO LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION CAUGHT IN SURFACE OBSERVING PLATFORMS...BUT DEPTH OF
EXPECTED DEPTH OF INSTABILITY LAYER SUGGESTS SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT...RAIN HYDROMETEORS WITH LIKELY ICE NUCLEATION ISSUES.
MOVING FORWARD...MODELS BASICALLY PIVOT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THERMAL TROUGH OVER LAKE HURON WASHING OUT THE ALREADY WEAK BOUNDARY
OUT EVEN FURTHER. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MAKE
IT INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST WITH TIME TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTER
BUILDING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF QUEBEC. THE REAL
FORECAST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS TRENDS AND DEVELOPING
EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES WORK TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SWING THE FORECAST IN COMPLETELY WITH THE
NAM IS IT REMAINS ITS BULLISH SELF. WITH THAT SAID THE RUC IS ON
BOARD WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALL OF THE THUMB AND EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. LAKE HURON
STRATOCUMULUS OVER PORTIONS OF ONTARIO HAS MIXED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SUSPECT LOW LEVEL CLOUD TO BEGIN TO FILL IN/SATURATE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD TOP/MOISTURE BLACK BODY RADIATIVE
COOLING. INCREASED SKY COVER MARKEDLY FOR TONIGHT AND RAISED LOWS
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MARINE AREAS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY
UPPER LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SPINNING NEAR THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT CONSOLIDATES TOMORROW AND BECOMES POSITIONED UNDER
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING FROM A JET
STREAK ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEEPENING UPPER/SURFACE
LOW WILL THEN LIFT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A SURGE OF WARMER
AIR AND MOISTURE UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF RAIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
INITIAL ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS WEAK AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LACKING BELOW
10000 FEET MUCH OF THE DAY PER LATEST GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY MODELS BEGIN TO CREEP SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY...ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY GENERATE A FEW
SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER. STRONGER THETA-E SURGE LOOKS TO
OCCUR PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONGER SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. PW VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM
FRONT/OCCLUSION AND LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING TO GENERATE A BAND OF
RAINFALL THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE ON TUESDAY AS A
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS UP THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN A LITTLE INCONSISTENT
WITHIN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW RUNS...RANGING FROM EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS ADDS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY SURROUNDING MAX TEMPS AND HOW
LONG INTO THE DAY DRIZZLE WILL LAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OR LEVEL
OFF MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S UNTIL
THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS ON TUESDAY. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME ADDED ENHANCEMENT FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS DO NOT
LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT A
MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COLD AIR /AROUND -30C AT 500 MB
AND -6C AT 850 MB/ WILL TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT WITH LOW IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME DUE TO FAIRLY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE BUT WITH THE
POLAR JET DISPLACED MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE
RESULT LOCALLY IS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PERSISTENT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS FROM OUTER SAGINAW BAY TO PORT HURON
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE
WEST ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WILL ALSO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
A ZONE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND ONTARIO SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY BALANCED TODAY DUE TO BLOCKED FLOW
AND NO IDENTIFIABLE SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES. AS A RESULT...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IN
A THERMALLY RECEPTIVE AND HOSPITABLE ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS NOT A
HUGE DIFFERENCE WITH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -10C OVER GEORGIAN
BAY TO 1C OVER THE DTX CWA. THE LAKE ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN REASONABLY
ACTIVE GAUGING FROM BOTH THE BEHAVIOR OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS OUT
OVER THE LAKE AS WELL AS THE EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS THAT PERSISTS
ALONG AND ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. THERE HAS BEEN NO LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION CAUGHT IN SURFACE OBSERVING PLATFORMS...BUT DEPTH OF
EXPECTED DEPTH OF INSTABILITY LAYER SUGGESTS SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT...RAIN HYDROMETEORS WITH LIKELY ICE NUCLEATION ISSUES.
MOVING FORWARD...MODELS BASICALLY PIVOT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THERMAL TROUGH OVER LAKE HURON WASHING OUT THE ALREADY WEAK BOUNDARY
OUT EVEN FURTHER. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MAKE
IT INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST WITH TIME TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTER
BUILDING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF QUEBEC. THE REAL
FORECAST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS TRENDS AND DEVELOPING
EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES WORK TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SWING THE FORECAST IN COMPLETELY WITH THE
NAM IS IT REMAINS ITS BULLISH SELF. WITH THAT SAID THE RUC IS ON
BOARD WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALL OF THE THUMB AND EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. LAKE HURON
STRATOCUMULUS OVER PORTIONS OF ONTARIO HAS MIXED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SUSPECT LOW LEVEL CLOUD TO BEGIN TO FILL IN/SATURATE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD TOP/MOISTURE BLACK BODY RADIATIVE
COOLING. INCREASED SKY COVER MARKEDLY FOR TONIGHT AND RAISED LOWS
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MARINE AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY
UPPER LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SPINNING NEAR THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT CONSOLIDATES TOMORROW AND BECOMES POSITIONED UNDER
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING FROM A JET
STREAK ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEEPENING UPPER/SURFACE
LOW WILL THEN LIFT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A SURGE OF WARMER
AIR AND MOISTURE UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF RAIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
INITIAL ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS WEAK AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LACKING BELOW
10000 FEET MUCH OF THE DAY PER LATEST GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY MODELS BEGIN TO CREEP SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY...ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY GENERATE A FEW
SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER. STRONGER THETA-E SURGE LOOKS TO
OCCUR PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONGER SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. PW VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM
FRONT/OCCLUSION AND LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING TO GENERATE A BAND OF
RAINFALL THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE ON TUESDAY AS A
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS UP THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN A LITTLE INCONSISTENT
WITHIN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW RUNS...RANGING FROM EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS ADDS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY SURROUNDING MAX TEMPS AND HOW
LONG INTO THE DAY DRIZZLE WILL LAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OR LEVEL
OFF MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S UNTIL
THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS ON TUESDAY. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME ADDED ENHANCEMENT FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS DO NOT
LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT A
MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COLD AIR /AROUND -30C AT 500 MB
AND -6C AT 850 MB/ WILL TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT WITH LOW IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME DUE TO FAIRLY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE BUT WITH THE
POLAR JET DISPLACED MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE
RESULT LOCALLY IS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PERSISTENT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS FROM OUTER SAGINAW BAY TO PORT HURON
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE
WEST ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WILL ALSO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1230 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
FOCUS FOR THE TAFS HAS BEEN ASSESSING THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
STRATUS/STRATOCU CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REGIONAL SATELLITE
AND MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT EXTENSIVE MOISTURE POOLED/RESIDING ALONG A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...BUT
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TRY TO ADVECT LAKE BASED MOISTURE
INLAND. VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EVEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ADVECT LAKE ERIE MOISTURE INTO THE DETROIT AREA TAF SITES. EXTENSIVE
BKN MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. KEPT CIGS AT SCT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BELOW 5000FT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1232 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN NW
FLOW THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEST OF JAMES BAY MOVING
INTO NRN QUEBEC WAS DRAGGING A WEAK TROUGH OR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN. IR LOOP SHOWED
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ERN UPPER MI WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS LOW LEVEL NRLY WINDS VEER TO THE ENE
THIS MORNING...THE CLOUDS THE LAKE AND ERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT NEAR THE WI BORDER. THE
HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THE VERY AGGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING COMPARED TO SEVERAL PREVIOUS RUNS. MOST OF THE OBSERVED
CIGS WERE IN THE 2K-3K FT RANGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN WILL
BE OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS ARE
FCST AOB 10KT...THE AMOUNT OF FORCING WILL BE WEAK. IN
ADDITION...SINCE THE MIN TEMP IN THE CLOUD LAYER IS ONLY FCST TO
AROUND -7C...LITTLE OR NO ICE NUCLEI WILL BE AVAILABLE. ALTHOUGH THE
PCPN CHANCES ARE MARGINAL...A MENTION OF PATCHY -FZDZ WAS MAINTAINED
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER MOST OF THE
AREA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST AND WINDS BECOME SW.
AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTENING FROM SSW FLOW ACROSS LAKE MI WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN THE CLOUDS OVER THE EAST. WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INLAND
WEST...AND DECOUPLED WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS
WHILE READINGS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
MONDAY WILL BRING THE 500MB LOW THAT HAD SET UP SHOP OVER THE W
THIRD OF THE NATION TO THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND OUT AHEAD OF
IT A BRIEF 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
BY 00Z TUESDAY THE 500MB LOW WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NE...WITH THE
SFC LOW OVER SW IA. AS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUES THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
MORE STACKED...SET UP ACROSS S MN/N IA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS
TO KEEP SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR OVER UPPER MI INITIALLY...RESULTING IN
MORE OF A MIX OR MORE RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THAN SNOW OVER THE
AREA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 30F
W...WHILE IN THE MID 30S CENTRAL AND E ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.
BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE E BY 06Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE DRY AIR
NEEDED TO BE OVERCOME AND THE E-ESE SFC WINDS...THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
TOO FAST. HAVE UPDATED THE HWO/EHWO FOR MORE OF A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AN ANY SPS FOR NOW.
THE 500MB LOW WILL SWING OVER WI BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC
LOW SHIFTS OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI TO S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE FOCUS FOR SNOW WILL FINALLY WRAP IN BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW
TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY THAT TIME THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT...AND COLD AIR WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WHEN THE PRECIP DOES CHANGE OVER IT WILL BE
THE WET SLUSHY VARIETY...WITH RATIOS LESS THAN 10:1 UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE LOW...AND WARMER AIR
ABLE TO MOVE IN...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 5IN
OR LESS /HIGHEST FAR W/. THIS IS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FAR WEST COULD SEE SNOWFALL OF 4-7 INCHES...WITH THE CENTRAL U.P. 2
TO 4 INCHES. AN INCH OR LESS TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. IT/S
INTERESTING EVENT TO COMPARE THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SOLUTIONS ON
BUFKIT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FCST TREND IS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
THERE IS SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EXIT OF THE SFC LOW WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 00-06Z GFS IS ON THE QUICKER END OF THE SPECTRUM OVER
FAR E LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS STILL OVER
THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SO...A CHANGEABLE FCST WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY...THE LOW AND IT/S LINGERING TROUGH SHOULD
EXIT E BY 00Z THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT THE 500MB
RIDGE WILL SHIFT E...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK IN ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THIS N
STREAM WAVE SHOULD NOT BRING MUCH OF ANYTHING. SO OVERALL...THE
TREND OF HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
KIWD SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE MVFR
CLOUDS STAY OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH LATER TONIGHT.
THOSE MVFR CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KSAW/KCMX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT
THE CLOUDS OUT OF KCMX AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. BUT AT KSAW...HAVE LEFT THEM IN FOR A WHILE TONIGHT...AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THINK KSAW
WILL SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT AFTER WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEY GET SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO COMBINE WITH THE DRIER AIR
BEING ADVECTED IN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY...WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH TODAY AND REMAIN
LIGHT...RETURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
NEARS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE LOW...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST TO 25KTS AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
656 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN NW
FLOW THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEST OF JAMES BAY MOVING
INTO NRN QUEBEC WAS DRAGGING A WEAK TROUGH OR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN. IR LOOP SHOWED
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ERN UPPER MI WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS LOW LEVEL NRLY WINDS VEER TO THE ENE
THIS MORNING...THE CLOUDS THE LAKE AND ERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT NEAR THE WI BORDER. THE
HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THE VERY AGGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING COMPARED TO SEVERAL PREVIOUS RUNS. MOST OF THE OBSERVED
CIGS WERE IN THE 2K-3K FT RANGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN WILL
BE OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS ARE
FCST AOB 10KT...THE AMOUNT OF FORCING WILL BE WEAK. IN
ADDITION...SINCE THE MIN TEMP IN THE CLOUD LAYER IS ONLY FCST TO
AROUND -7C...LITTLE OR NO ICE NUCLEI WILL BE AVAILABLE. ALTHOUGH THE
PCPN CHANCES ARE MARGINAL...A MENTION OF PATCHY -FZDZ WAS MAINTAINED
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER MOST OF THE
AREA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST AND WINDS BECOME SW.
AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTENING FROM SSW FLOW ACROSS LAKE MI WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN THE CLOUDS OVER THE EAST. WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INLAND
WEST...AND DECOUPLED WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS
WHILE READINGS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
MONDAY WILL BRING THE 500MB LOW THAT HAD SET UP SHOP OVER THE W
THIRD OF THE NATION TO THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND OUT AHEAD OF
IT A BRIEF 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
BY 00Z TUESDAY THE 500MB LOW WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NE...WITH THE
SFC LOW OVER SW IA. AS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUES THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
MORE STACKED...SET UP ACROSS S MN/N IA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS
TO KEEP SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR OVER UPPER MI INITIALLY...RESULTING IN
MORE OF A MIX OR MORE RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THAN SNOW OVER THE
AREA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 30F
W...WHILE IN THE MID 30S CENTRAL AND E ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.
BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE E BY 06Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE DRY AIR
NEEDED TO BE OVERCOME AND THE E-ESE SFC WINDS...THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
TOO FAST. HAVE UPDATED THE HWO/EHWO FOR MORE OF A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AN ANY SPS FOR NOW.
THE 500MB LOW WILL SWING OVER WI BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC
LOW SHIFTS OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI TO S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE FOCUS FOR SNOW WILL FINALLY WRAP IN BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW
TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY THAT TIME THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT...AND COLD AIR WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WHEN THE PRECIP DOES CHANGE OVER IT WILL BE
THE WET SLUSHY VARIETY...WITH RATIOS LESS THAN 10:1 UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE LOW...AND WARMER AIR
ABLE TO MOVE IN...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 5IN
OR LESS /HIGHEST FAR W/. THIS IS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FAR WEST COULD SEE SNOWFALL OF 4-7 INCHES...WITH THE CENTRAL U.P. 2
TO 4 INCHES. AN INCH OR LESS TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. IT/S
INTERESTING EVENT TO COMPARE THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SOLUTIONS ON
BUFKIT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FCST TREND IS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
THERE IS SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EXIT OF THE SFC LOW WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 00-06Z GFS IS ON THE QUICKER END OF THE SPECTRUM OVER
FAR E LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS STILL OVER
THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SO...A CHANGEABLE FCST WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY...THE LOW AND IT/S LINGERING TROUGH SHOULD
EXIT E BY 00Z THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT THE 500MB
RIDGE WILL SHIFT E...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK IN ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THIS N
STREAM WAVE SHOULD NOT BRING MUCH OF ANYTHING. SO OVERALL...THE
TREND OF HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS FROM N TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY...EXEPCT MVFR
CLOUDS TO LINGER AT CMX AND SAW. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER TO MINIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR ANY -FZDZ. SINCE THE
VEERING FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE INTO IWD...THAT LOCATION IS LIKELY TO AVOID
THE BULK OF THE LOW CLDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING THERE.
THE LO CLDS AT CMX MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATER IN THE FCST PERIOD AS
THE LLVL FLOW VEERS FURTHER TO A DOWNSLOPE SSE DIRECTION THERE. AS
THE WINDS BECOME SRLY TONIGHT...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO DEPART SAW
BY LATE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY...WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH TODAY AND REMAIN
LIGHT...RETURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
NEARS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE LOW...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST TO 25KTS AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
511 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN NW
FLOW THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEST OF JAMES BAY MOVING
INTO NRN QUEBEC WAS DRAGGING A WEAK TROUGH OR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN. IR LOOP SHOWED
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ERN UPPER MI WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS LOW LEVEL NRLY WINDS VEER TO THE ENE
THIS MORNING...THE CLOUDS THE LAKE AND ERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT NEAR THE WI BORDER. THE
HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THE VERY AGGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING COMPARED TO SEVERAL PREVIOUS RUNS. MOST OF THE OBSERVED
CIGS WERE IN THE 2K-3K FT RANGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN WILL
BE OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS ARE
FCST AOB 10KT...THE AMOUNT OF FORCING WILL BE WEAK. IN
ADDITION...SINCE THE MIN TEMP IN THE CLOUD LAYER IS ONLY FCST TO
AROUND -7C...LITTLE OR NO ICE NUCLEI WILL BE AVAILABLE. ALTHOUGH THE
PCPN CHANCES ARE MARGINAL...A MENTION OF PATCHY -FZDZ WAS MAINTAINED
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER MOST OF THE
AREA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST AND WINDS BECOME SW.
AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTENING FROM SSW FLOW ACROSS LAKE MI WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN THE CLOUDS OVER THE EAST. WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INLAND
WEST...AND DECOUPLED WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS
WHILE READINGS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
MONDAY WILL BRING THE 500MB LOW THAT HAD SET UP SHOP OVER THE W
THIRD OF THE NATION TO THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND OUT AHEAD OF
IT A BRIEF 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
BY 00Z TUESDAY THE 500MB LOW WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NE...WITH THE
SFC LOW OVER SW IA. AS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUES THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
MORE STACKED...SET UP ACROSS S MN/N IA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS
TO KEEP SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR OVER UPPER MI INITIALLY...RESULTING IN
MORE OF A MIX OR MORE RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THAN SNOW OVER THE
AREA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 30F
W...WHILE IN THE MID 30S CENTRAL AND E ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.
BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE E BY 06Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE DRY AIR
NEEDED TO BE OVERCOME AND THE E-ESE SFC WINDS...THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
TOO FAST. HAVE UPDATED THE HWO/EHWO FOR MORE OF A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AN ANY SPS FOR NOW.
THE 500MB LOW WILL SWING OVER WI BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC
LOW SHIFTS OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI TO S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE FOCUS FOR SNOW WILL FINALLY WRAP IN BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW
TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY THAT TIME THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT...AND COLD AIR WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WHEN THE PRECIP DOES CHANGE OVER IT WILL BE
THE WET SLUSHY VARIETY...WITH RATIOS LESS THAN 10:1 UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE LOW...AND WARMER AIR
ABLE TO MOVE IN...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 5IN
OR LESS /HIGHEST FAR W/. THIS IS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FAR WEST COULD SEE SNOWFALL OF 4-7 INCHES...WITH THE CENTRAL U.P. 2
TO 4 INCHES. AN INCH OR LESS TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. IT/S
INTERESTING EVENT TO COMPARE THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SOLUTIONS ON
BUFKIT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FCST TREND IS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
THERE IS SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EXIT OF THE SFC LOW WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 00-06Z GFS IS ON THE QUICKER END OF THE SPECTRUM OVER
FAR E LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS STILL OVER
THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SO...A CHANGEABLE FCST WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY...THE LOW AND IT/S LINGERING TROUGH SHOULD
EXIT E BY 00Z THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT THE 500MB
RIDGE WILL SHIFT E...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK IN ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THIS N
STREAM WAVE SHOULD NOT BRING MUCH OF ANYTHING. SO OVERALL...THE
TREND OF HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE N EARLY THIS MRNG AND THEN TO THE
E LATER TODAY...STILL EXPECTING AREA OF LO CLDS IN NW ONTARIO/NRN LK
SUP TO IMPACT CMX AND SAW TOWARD SUNRISE AND TO BRING MVFR CIGS TO
THOSE LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES AT THESE
SITES...NOT EXPECTING ANY SGNFT VSBY RESTRICTION. SINCE THE VEERING
FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE INTO IWD...THAT LOCATION IS LIKELY TO AVOID THE
BULK OF THE LO CLDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING THERE. THE
LO CLDS AT CMX MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATER IN THE FCST PERIOD AS THE
LLVL FLOW VEERS FURTHER TO A DOWNSLOPE SSE DIRECTION THERE. THE MORE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO SAW IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A BKN MVFR CIGS
THERE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY...WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH TODAY AND REMAIN
LIGHT...RETURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
NEARS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE LOW...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST TO 25KTS AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
454 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN NW
FLOW THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEST OF JAMES BAY MOVING
INTO NRN QUEBEC WAS DRAGGING A WEAK TROUGH OR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN. IR LOOP SHOWED
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ERN UPPER MI WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS LOW LEVEL NRLY WINDS VEER TO THE ENE
THIS MORNING...THE CLOUDS THE LAKE AND ERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT NEAR THE WI BORDER. THE
HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THE VERY AGGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING COMPARED TO SEVERAL PREVIOUS RUNS. MOST OF THE OBSERVED
CIGS WERE IN THE 2K-3K FT RANGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN WILL
BE OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS ARE
FCST AOB 10KT...THE AMOUNT OF FORCING WILL BE WEAK. IN
ADDITION...SINCE THE MIN TEMP IN THE CLOUD LAYER IS ONLY FCST TO
AROUND -7C...LITTLE OR NO ICE NUCLEI WILL BE AVAILABLE. ALTHOUGH THE
PCPN CHANCES ARE MARGINAL...A MENTION OF PATCHY -FZDZ WAS MAINTAINED
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER MOST OF THE
AREA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST AND WINDS BECOME SW.
AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTENING FROM SSW FLOW ACROSS LAKE MI WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN THE CLOUDS OVER THE EAST. WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INLAND
WEST...AND DECOUPLED WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS
WHILE READINGS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
SPLIT FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONTINENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...EXPECT THE WEATHER TO
BE QUIET AND FAIRLY MILD FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY REMAINING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD END AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IN
FACT...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING SKIES WITH THE WINDS BACKING TO
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING
ROUND 0.25 INCH. IF THIS OCCURS...TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING AHEAD
OF THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO
THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...HOWEVER WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +2C...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S OR EVEN SOME LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE-UPPER MS VLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE FLOW...AM TRENDING TOWARD THE SLOWER
GFS SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. IN
FACT...WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT COMBINED WITH THE DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE
PRECIPITATION HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE UPPER
PENINSULA. AS SUCH...WILL TREND TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. WILL STILL
BRING LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OVERNIGHT ON
MONDAY...WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH LIKELY POPS ON TUESDAY.
WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUE...EXPECT SOME DRYING TO OCCUR TUE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND HAVE
REDUCED POPS TO CHC ACROSS THAT REGION. WITH THE LOW TRACK MOVING
OVERHEAD...WOULD EXPECT SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST
DUE TO THE CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL. AS SUCH...AM THINKING NW
WI AND FAR WEST UPPER MI WILL SEE THE MOST PCPN WITH THIS STORM.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE THE BIG PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
OCCLUDED AND CLOSED OFF NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW. JUST ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALOFT TO LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE WEST HALF AWAY FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL BE
EXTREMELY WET AND HEAVY. AS FOR THE AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR
AND TO THE EAST...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
SFC TEMPS...SO IT SEEMS LIKE PRECIP MAY START AS SNOW ACROSS THE
EAST BUT CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY TUE AFTN AS SFC TEMPS WARM. DUE TO
THE WET AND HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW...COULD SEE SOME TRICKY TRAVEL
ON TUE MORNING ACROSS THE WEST. AS FOR STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONSDAY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...AM THINKING THE FAR WEST COULD
SEE SNOWFALL OF 4-7 INCHES...WITH THE CENTRAL U.P. 2 TO 4 INCHES. AN
INCH OR LESS TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NE TUE NIGHT...EXPECT WRAP AROUND PCPN TO
PERSIST ACROSS UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND -6C...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CHANCE POPS WED
ACROSS THE EAST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE VERY QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. IN FACT...BY SATURDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. WOULD NOT
BE SHOCKED TO SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG SW FLOW.
REGARDLESS...THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE N EARLY THIS MRNG AND THEN TO THE
E LATER TODAY...STILL EXPECTING AREA OF LO CLDS IN NW ONTARIO/NRN LK
SUP TO IMPACT CMX AND SAW TOWARD SUNRISE AND TO BRING MVFR CIGS TO
THOSE LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES AT THESE
SITES...NOT EXPECTING ANY SGNFT VSBY RESTRICTION. SINCE THE VEERING
FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE INTO IWD...THAT LOCATION IS LIKELY TO AVOID THE
BULK OF THE LO CLDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING THERE. THE
LO CLDS AT CMX MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATER IN THE FCST PERIOD AS THE
LLVL FLOW VEERS FURTHER TO A DOWNSLOPE SSE DIRECTION THERE. THE MORE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO SAW IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A BKN MVFR CIGS
THERE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY...WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH TODAY AND REMAIN
LIGHT...RETURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
NEARS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE LOW...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST TO 25KTS AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
900 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED REMAINING PARTS OF WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.
ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT THESE AREAS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW HAS FALLEN OFF MARKEDLY WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO REMAIN WELL UNDER AN INCH. PLUS THERE
IS REALLY NOT MUCH WIND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND...AND TEMPERATURES
ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING MAKING FOR A WET SNOW THAT IS HARD TO BLOW
AROUND ANYWAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
HAVE ALLOWED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM...AND
MAINTAINED WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE
TO CANCEL THAT ONE EARLY IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE. APPEARS
LAST GASP OF POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS ROTATING THROUGH
THE AREA AT EARLY EVENING...WHICH CONFIRMS THE CONSENSUS OF
SHORT-TERM HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES IN OUR NRN COUNTIES WILL BE THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM.
500 MB CHART FROM 12Z SHOWED MAIN LOW BACK OVER WY WITH HEIGHT FALLS
ESTIMATED AT UP TO 130 METERS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS CENTERED OVER
THE SERN CO/SWRN KS BORDER AREA. IT WAS JUST A BIT LESS AT KDDC
(120 METERS). VORT MAX WAS OVER NERN CO AT THAT TIME...BUT WATER
VAPOR STLT IMAGERY AND RECENT RUC MODEL INITILIZATIONS SHOW MAIN
LOW NOW IN WRN NE. STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE
LOW. MAIN BAND OF PCPN MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING ABOUT AS
EXPECTED...AND THE PCPN TYPE WAS A MIX. NEXT LOBE OF ENERGY HAD
ROTATED INTO ERN NE FROM THE WEST AND THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WRAP
UP TOWARD SERN SD.
WE HAD SEEN SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES NORTH OF KOFK AS EARLY
AFTN. SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS PSBL...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM NELIGH TO FREMONT AND RED OAK.
WILL TRIM HEADLINES TO THE S...BUT KEEP HEADLINES GOING N WHERE PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. NEW AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NOT
OVERLY HIGH IN OUR NORTH...BUT A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. CLOSED
LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EWD/NEWD...REACHING SWRN MN BY 12 TUE AND
THEN SHOULD BE OVER WI BY 12Z WED. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW EVEN INTO
TUE NIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THAT CLOSED LOW TRACKS
NEWD AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY 40S
SOUTH AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH. PCPN CHANCES STILL SEEM TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER NM BY
SAT...THEN THAT MOVES OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUN/MON. GENLY
FAVORED THE ECMWF MORE THAN THE GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
RATHER COMPLEX FCST IN PART TO LARGE SYSTEM PREVAILING OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS. LATEST OBS INDICATE MIX OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVER
MOST OF ERN NEB...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PIVOTING UP INTO SERN NEB.
GIVEN PATH OF UPPER LOW...APPEARS THAT KOMA AND KLNK WILL SEE A
BRIEF PD OF MVFR BEFORE PCPN ACTIVITY WEST OF THE AREA MOVES IN
WITH RETURN OF IFR/-SN THRU THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
AT KOFK...NO IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED THRU AT LEAST TUES MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
613 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
HAVE ALLOWED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM...AND
MAINTAINED WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE
TO CANCEL THAT ONE EARLY IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE. APPEARS
LAST GASP OF POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS ROTATING THROUGH
THE AREA AT EARLY EVENING...WHICH CONFIRMS THE CONSENSUS OF
SHORT-TERM HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES IN OUR NRN COUNTIES WILL BE THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM.
500 MB CHART FROM 12Z SHOWED MAIN LOW BACK OVER WY WITH HEIGHT FALLS
ESTIMATED AT UP TO 130 METERS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS CENTERED OVER
THE SERN CO/SWRN KS BORDER AREA. IT WAS JUST A BIT LESS AT KDDC
(120 METERS). VORT MAX WAS OVER NERN CO AT THAT TIME...BUT WATER
VAPOR STLT IMAGERY AND RECENT RUC MODEL INITILIZATIONS SHOW MAIN
LOW NOW IN WRN NE. STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE
LOW. MAIN BAND OF PCPN MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING ABOUT AS
EXPECTED...AND THE PCPN TYPE WAS A MIX. NEXT LOBE OF ENERGY HAD
ROTATED INTO ERN NE FROM THE WEST AND THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WRAP
UP TOWARD SERN SD.
WE HAD SEEN SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES NORTH OF KOFK AS EARLY
AFTN. SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS PSBL...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM NELIGH TO FREMONT AND RED OAK.
WILL TRIM HEADLINES TO THE S...BUT KEEP HEADLINES GOING N WHERE PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. NEW AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NOT
OVERLY HIGH IN OUR NORTH...BUT A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. CLOSED
LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EWD/NEWD...REACHING SWRN MN BY 12 TUE AND
THEN SHOULD BE OVER WI BY 12Z WED. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW EVEN INTO
TUE NIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THAT CLOSED LOW TRACKS
NEWD AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY 40S
SOUTH AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH. PCPN CHANCES STILL SEEM TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER NM BY
SAT...THEN THAT MOVES OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUN/MON. GENLY
FAVORED THE ECMWF MORE THAN THE GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
RATHER COMPLEX FCST IN PART TO LARGE SYSTEM PREVAILING OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS. LATEST OBS INDICATE MIX OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVER
MOST OF ERN NEB...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PIVOTING UP INTO SERN NEB.
GIVEN PATH OF UPPER LOW...APPEARS THAT KOMA AND KLNK WILL SEE A
BRIEF PD OF MVFR BEFORE PCPN ACTIVITY WEST OF THE AREA MOVES IN
WITH RETURN OF IFR/-SN THRU THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
AT KOFK...NO IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED THRU AT LEAST TUES MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-
015-034.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-
056.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
537 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES IN OUR NRN COUNTIES WILL BE THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM.
500 MB CHART FROM 12Z SHOWED MAIN LOW BACK OVER WY WITH HEIGHT FALLS
ESTIMATED AT UP TO 130 METERS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS CENTERED OVER
THE SERN CO/SWRN KS BORDER AREA. IT WAS JUST A BIT LESS AT KDDC
(120 METERS). VORT MAX WAS OVER NERN CO AT THAT TIME...BUT WATER
VAPOR STLT IMAGERY AND RECENT RUC MODEL INITILIZATIONS SHOW MAIN
LOW NOW IN WRN NE. STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE
LOW. MAIN BAND OF PCPN MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING ABOUT AS
EXPECTED...AND THE PCPN TYPE WAS A MIX. NEXT LOBE OF ENERGY HAD
ROTATED INTO ERN NE FROM THE WEST AND THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WRAP
UP TOWARD SERN SD.
WE HAD SEEN SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES NORTH OF KOFK AS EARLY
AFTN. SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS PSBL...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM NELIGH TO FREMONT AND RED OAK.
WILL TRIM HEADLINES TO THE S...BUT KEEP HEADLINES GOING N WHERE PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. NEW AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NOT
OVERLY HIGH IN OUR NORTH...BUT A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. CLOSED
LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EWD/NEWD...REACHING SWRN MN BY 12 TUE AND
THEN SHOULD BE OVER WI BY 12Z WED. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW EVEN INTO
TUE NIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THAT CLOSED LOW TRACKS
NEWD AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY 40S
SOUTH AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH. PCPN CHANCES STILL SEEM TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER NM BY
SAT...THEN THAT MOVES OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUN/MON. GENLY
FAVORED THE ECMWF MORE THAN THE GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
RATHER COMPLEX FCST IN PART TO LARGE SYSTEM PREVAILING OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS. LATEST OBS INDICATE MIX OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVER
MOST OF ERN NEB...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PIVOTING UP INTO SERN NEB.
GIVEN PATH OF UPPER LOW...APPEARS THAT KOMA AND KLNK WILL SEE A
BRIEF PD OF MVFR BEFORE PCPN ACTIVITY WEST OF THE AREA MOVES IN
WITH RETURN OF IFR/-SN THRU THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
AT KOFK...NO IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED THRU AT LEAST TUES MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-
015-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ016>018-030>033-042>045-052.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-
056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ069.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
MESSY...MESSY FCST THE NEXT 36 HRS AND BECAUSE OF THAT DISCUSSION
WILL BE ON THE SHORT SIDE FOR LENGTH. MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE PCPN
TYPE...WHICH LEADS TO PROBLEMS WITH ICE AND SNOW AMOUNTS. WARNING
IS BASED ON WHAT POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE...AND WAS STARTED
SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THAN WE EXPECT THINGS TO DETERIORATE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTN SHOWED THE MAIN CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION IN THE MID LEVELS OVER UT...WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CENTER
IN WY. VERY UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL NOTED AT 300 MB FROM NM INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AT 300 MB THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE NOTED AT 850 MB MOVING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST...WITH 8
DEGREE C 850 MB DEWPOINTS IN NRN OK AND SWRN MO AT 12Z.
AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT INTO WY AND CO BY 12Z MONDAY...LIFT
WILL INCREASE WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND
SOME OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF PCPN OVER OUR
AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING RUSH HOUR
FOR THE LNK...OMA AND CBF AREAS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR MIXED PCPN WHICH WILL INCLUDE MUCH OF ERN NE AND INTO
WRN IA. FAR SERN NE AND PARTS OF SWRN IA WILL JUST BE IN AN
ADVISORY...SINCE SFC TEMPS THERE LIKELY TO BE CLOSER TO OR
POSSIBLY ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN TYPE DEFINITELY AN ISSUE OVER THE
FCST AREA...WITH SNOW IN OUR NW ZONES AND RAIN SE ZONES. THE AREAS
IN BETWEEN WILL SEE A MIX.
ON MONDAY...HEAVIEST PCPN WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD ACROSS IA BUT
ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPS ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN NE TOWARD ERN SD. THAT
SHOWS UP FAIRLY WELL IN THE 12Z GFS PARAMETERS WITH UPWARDS OF
0.25 QPF AND THAT WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. SNOW LINGERS THERE PAST
6 PM THERE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN OUR SRN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT
SNOW COULD LINGER INTO TUE AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE MID LEVEL
LOW WHICH SHOULD REACH CNTRL WI BY 00Z WED.
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MIXING RATIOS/
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES AVERAGING 3-4 G/KG ACROSS NERN NE AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THAT FARTHER SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS. USED A
BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS. SOME PCPN PSBL BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TAF PERIOD WITH LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP AS AREA OF
DRIZZLE WITH IFR CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING SO SHOULD MAINTAIN A LIQUID PCPN TYPE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER KOFK WILL BE THE EXCEPTION BUT PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT THERE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY MOVE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AND BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAKES PCPN TYPE FORECASTING
INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. HAVE GIVEN
IT OUR BEST SHOT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN
AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE FOR KOMA AND KLNK. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT WITH NO DEEP COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA UNTIL
MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ065>068-078-088>090-092.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY FOR NEZ091-093.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ043>045-050>053.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY FOR IAZ079-080-090-091.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ069.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
219 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR SKIES OUT LATER TODAY INTO
MONDAY, BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM SPREADS RAIN TOWARD NY AND PA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF PA LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW AND TRAPPED UNDER A
FORMIDABLE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, AS EVIDENCED BY REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS. ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND THE POCONOS), SUNSHINE HAS BEEN MORE
PREVALENT.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE NAM AND HRRR HAVE, BY FAR, THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONFIGURATION DESCRIBED ABOVE,
WITH MOST OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC/DRY, WITH REGARDS TO SKY COVER. USING THE NAM AND HRRR
AS A GUIDE, WE MAY SEE SOME FURTHER EROSION OF THE CLOUD MASS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, YIELDING MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE FOR
NORTHEAST PA, AS WELL AS SECTIONS OF SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES IN NY. ELSEWHERE, CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
UPPER HAND, AS MIXING/ASSOCIATED CLEARING POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED UNDER THE ABOVE REFERENCED CAPPING INVERSION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, THEY WILL BE CHILLY WHERE
SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S), WITH LOW-MID 40S
ANTICIPATED WHERE THE SUN BREAKS THROUGH, OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
AS FAR AS THIS EVENING IS CONCERNED, FOR NOW, WE BLENDED TODAY`S
SKY COVER GRIDS IN WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THIS
STRATEGY WOULD YIELD AN EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD BE OPTIMISTIC, PENDING
SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE LATER
TODAY. WE`LL ADDRESS THIS SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 2 AM UPDATE...
MODELS ARE NOT PROVIDING MUCH USEFUL GUIDANCE REGARDING TRAPPED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MOS PRODUCTS / SUPERBLEND ATTEMPT TO CLEAR
SKIES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, BUT THIS DOESN`T SEEM REALISTIC.
WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON BEFORE
ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WOUND UP UL LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PULL RAIN INTO OUR FA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW SO WILL OPT TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE HWO.
THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE FOR A SLOWER PRECIP ONSET MONDAY NIGHT,
AND WE HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DELAYED
THE TIMING. ONCE THE RAIN DOES SPREAD IN, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
CONTINUING RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY, WHEN WE INTRODUCE HIGH LIKELY TO
CAT POPS INTO THE GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE BIG PICTURE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE / LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WHAT THIS MEANS IS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
CONTINUING AROUND OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NO MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS
OR WINTER STORMS ON THE HORIZON. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS BIG PICTURE SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH.
FOR THE GRIDDED FORECAST ITSELF, UTILIZED MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE,
KNOWN AS THE SUPERBLEND, WITH ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
FOR DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER, COOLER CONDITIONS MOVE BACK IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NY, DUE TO LAKE
EFFECT. RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE A WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS BY LATE
FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
AROUND SEASONAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
EARLY INDICATIONS ARE FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST...LOW STRATUS DECK DUE TO MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH INVERSION HAS BEGUN TO ERODE AWAY BOTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND AROUND KSYR/KRME. THUS EXPECT CIGS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT
KAVP TO FLUCTUATE IN AND OUT OF MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CIGS
WILL BE BROKEN TO SCATTERED. KAVP STAYS MAINLY CLEAR WITH VFR.
THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE CHALLENGING FOR TONIGHT. DO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING FOR KSYR/KRME AS WINDS SHIFT
FROM NW TO NE AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. LOWER CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER,
FOR KITH/KELM/KBGM. DIDN`T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT
THIS TIME AND KEEP BROKEN CIGS WITH MVFR IN UNTIL 02Z HOWEVER
THERE IS A CHANCE THIS COULD PERSIST LONGER IF STRONGER INVERSION
REMAINS IN PLACE AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM. KAVP REMAINS VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
N/NW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR.
TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY, IN LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT
RAIN.
THU/FRI...MOSTLY VFR, BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PCF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1249 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR SKIES OUT LATER TODAY INTO
MONDAY, BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM SPREADS RAIN TOWARD NY AND PA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF PA LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW AND TRAPPED UNDER A
FORMIDABLE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, AS EVIDENCED BY REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS. ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND THE POCONOS), SUNSHINE HAS BEEN MORE
PREVALENT.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE NAM AND HRRR HAVE, BY FAR, THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONFIGURATION DESCRIBED ABOVE,
WITH MOST OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC/DRY, WITH REGARDS TO SKY COVER. USING THE NAM AND HRRR
AS A GUIDE, WE MAY SEE SOME FURTHER EROSION OF THE CLOUD MASS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, YIELDING MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE FOR
NORTHEAST PA, AS WELL AS SECTIONS OF SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES IN NY. ELSEWHERE, CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
UPPER HAND, AS MIXING/ASSOCIATED CLEARING POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED UNDER THE ABOVE REFERENCED CAPPING INVERSION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, THEY WILL BE CHILLY WHERE
SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S), WITH LOW-MID 40S
ANTICIPATED WHERE THE SUN BREAKS THROUGH, OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
AS FAR AS THIS EVENING IS CONCERNED, FOR NOW, WE BLENDED TODAY`S
SKY COVER GRIDS IN WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THIS
STRATEGY WOULD YIELD AN EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD BE OPTIMISTIC, PENDING
SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE LATER
TODAY. WE`LL ADDRESS THIS SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 2 AM UPDATE...
MODELS ARE NOT PROVIDING MUCH USEFUL GUIDANCE REGARDING TRAPPED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MOS PRODUCTS / SUPERBLEND ATTEMPT TO CLEAR
SKIES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, BUT THIS DOESN`T SEEM REALISTIC.
WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON BEFORE
ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WOUND UP UL LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PULL RAIN INTO OUR FA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW SO WILL OPT TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE HWO.
THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE FOR A SLOWER PRECIP ONSET MONDAY NIGHT,
AND WE HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DELAYED
THE TIMING. ONCE THE RAIN DOES SPREAD IN, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
CONTINUING RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY, WHEN WE INTRODUCE HIGH LIKELY TO
CAT POPS INTO THE GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AS LATEST MODEL
RUNS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS SHOWERY AS
SFC OCCLUSION PASSES THROUGH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND SOME LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL KEEP SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE FAIR AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND SFC HIGH
PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
130 PM UPDATE... MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
RECENT PREVIOUS RUNS, YIELDING A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
IN THE BIG PICTURE, A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS
STILL FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST, EASTWARD TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED-THU. THEREAFTER, HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE
OVER THE EASTERN U.S./SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, AS ANOTHER AMPLIFIED
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE, WEDNESDAY LOOKS SHOWERY, AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM, AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTAL COMPLEX, TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY MAY FEATURE
A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS, WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S). FRI-SAT LOOK DRY,
FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR, OR ABOVE NORMAL, FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST...LOW STRATUS DECK DUE TO MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH INVERSION HAS BEGUN TO ERODE AWAY BOTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND AROUND KSYR/KRME. THUS EXPECT CIGS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT
KAVP TO FLUCTUATE IN AND OUT OF MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CIGS
WILL BE BROKEN TO SCATTERED. KAVP STAYS MAINLY CLEAR WITH VFR.
THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE CHALLENGING FOR TONIGHT. DO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING FOR KSYR/KRME AS WINDS SHIFT
FROM NW TO NE AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. LOWER CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER,
FOR KITH/KELM/KBGM. DIDN`T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT
THIS TIME AND KEEP BROKEN CIGS WITH MVFR IN UNTIL 02Z HOWEVER
THERE IS A CHANCE THIS COULD PERSIST LONGER IF STRONGER INVERSION
REMAINS IN PLACE AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM. KAVP REMAINS VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
N/NW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR.
TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY, IN LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT
RAIN.
THU/FRI...MOSTLY VFR, BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...PCF/RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1233 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CALM AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND TO START THE WORK WEEK. BY MID WEEK EXPECT
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX SWITCHING
TO RAIN AND THEN ENDING WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY
DECEMBER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1229 PM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT AS WELL AS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
ALONG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. HAVE NOTED A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED UPSTREAM IN MONTREAL AND NOW NEWPORT VT. SO I HAVE
BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL MENTION A FEW
FLURRIES OR A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY WITH THE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING COLD
AIR ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN NY INTO CENTRAL VT...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL WARMING IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHERN VT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 40F VSF. ALL COVERED
WELL IN FORECAST.
ONCE AGAIN THE BATTLE WITH LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CURRENT VIS SATL PICTURE SHOWS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH CLEARING OVER THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VT EARLY THIS
MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SUNSHINE TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERN
SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH TODAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VT. A FEW LIGHT
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON THE CLOUDS...WITH WARMEST VALUES SOUTH
AND COLDEST TEMPERATURES NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. OVERALL MANY
OF THE CONCEPTS ARE COVERED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS AND CONDITIONS.
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE TO THE FORECAST MAINLY INCLUDE
INCREASING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. 700MB FLOW REMAINS NORTHWEST AND AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW COULD DEVELOP.
NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT BUT ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE BLOCKED
FLOW AND A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 950MB AND 850MB IS POSSIBLE FOR
SNOW TO FALL ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF BOTH THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS BETWEEN 00-06Z THIS EVENING. SNOW...IF IT DOES FALL WOULD
ONLY BE LIKELY ABOVE 1500 FT AND REALLY ONLY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE HOLDING CONSISTENT
WITH THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 350 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TRICKY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TODAY. THE ONLY
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS A THIN LAYER OF SATURATED AIR BETWEEN
1000-900MB WITH FORECAST MODELS CONTINUING TO POINT TO THIS
STARTING TO ERODE RIGHT AROUND DAY BREAK. HOWEVER, A SECOND
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE CLOUDS BUILD BACK IN
BEHIND THE ERODING CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING. BASED ON LATEST
HIRES GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS I CLEARED OUT MUCH OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT IN THE AFTERNOON WHEREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WITH NEW YORK VERMONT AND CANADA EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON.
THE MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY WITH THE TYPICAL
COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
ONLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S WITH THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WARMING TO THE MID 30S. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS DOWN
THOUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO AS WE TURN TOWARDS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FORECAST 925MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -7C TO
-10C. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WITH SPOTTY CLOUD COVER OVER WILL LEAD TO
A LARGE RANGE OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT
INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL LIKELY RADIATE OUT TO THE LOW
TEENS OR EVEN NEAR SINGLE DIGITS WHEREAS THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURE COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO DROP TO THE LOW TEENS WITH THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS COOLING TO THE UPPER TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HOLDING OFF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S BY THE TIME THE RAIN SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW A WET TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT.
EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECTING ANY RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON THURSDAY FROM A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAIN ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENTLY SLK IS UNDER IFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
LIKELY ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER. BASED ON FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP MODEL THIS BANK OF
SATURATED AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND SO
I`VE KEPT MENTION OF IFR AT SLK THROUGH 15Z GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR. THERE IS A CLEARING LINE ON THE NIGHT IR SATELLITE WHERE MSS
HAS JUST STARTED TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF A BREAK IN THE CLOUD CEILING
SO IS POSSIBLE SLK COULD BOUNCE UP FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AS A SECOND SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH
IN FROM CANADA AND LEAD TO DECREASED CEILINGS AGAIN. ANTICIPATE
BETWEEN A POTENTIAL MVFR CLOUD DECK BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
TAFS SITES AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE FINALLY
STARTING TO DRY OUT. AT RUT, THE MVFR CEILING SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN
TO ERODE WITH DAYBREAK AND EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z WITH FEW
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS MID DAY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK
AND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE 18Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY TO BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND MVFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL/MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
933 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CALM AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND TO START THE WORK WEEK. BY MID WEEK EXPECT
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX SWITCHING
TO RAIN AND THEN ENDING WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY
DECEMBER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 928 AM EST SUNDAY...ONCE AGAIN THE BATTLE WITH LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CURRENT
VIS SATL PICTURE SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN DACKS
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH
CLEARING OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST VT EARLY THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SUNSHINE
TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TODAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF THE NORTHERN SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
VT. A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON THE CLOUDS...WITH WARMEST
VALUES SOUTH AND COLDEST TEMPERATURES NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OVERALL MANY OF THE CONCEPTS ARE COVERED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS AND CONDITIONS.
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE TO THE FORECAST MAINLY INCLUDE
INCREASING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. 700MB FLOW REMAINS NORTHWEST AND AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW COULD DEVELOP.
NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT BUT ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE BLOCKED
FLOW AND A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 950MB AND 850MB IS POSSIBLE FOR
SNOW TO FALL ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF BOTH THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS BETWEEN 00-06Z THIS EVENING. SNOW...IF IT DOES FALL WOULD
ONLY BE LIKELY ABOVE 1500 FT AND REALLY ONLY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE HOLDING CONSISTENT
WITH THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 350 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TRICKY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TODAY. THE ONLY
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS A THIN LAYER OF SATURATED AIR BETWEEN
1000-900MB WITH FORECAST MODELS CONTINUING TO POINT TO THIS
STARTING TO ERODE RIGHT AROUND DAY BREAK. HOWEVER, A SECOND
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE CLOUDS BUILD BACK IN
BEHIND THE ERODING CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING. BASED ON LATEST
HIRES GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS I CLEARED OUT MUCH OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT IN THE AFTERNOON WHEREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WITH NEW YORK VERMONT AND CANADA EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON.
THE MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY WITH THE TYPICAL
COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
ONLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S WITH THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WARMING TO THE MID 30S. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS DOWN
THOUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO AS WE TURN TOWARDS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FORECAST 925MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -7C TO
-10C. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WITH SPOTTY CLOUD COVER OVER WILL LEAD TO
A LARGE RANGE OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT
INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL LIKELY RADIATE OUT TO THE LOW
TEENS OR EVEN NEAR SINGLE DIGITS WHEREAS THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURE COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO DROP TO THE LOW TEENS WITH THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS COOLING TO THE UPPER TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HOLDING OFF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S BY THE TIME THE RAIN SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW A WET TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT.
EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECTING ANY RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON THURSDAY FROM A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAIN ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENTLY SLK IS UNDER IFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
LIKELY ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER. BASED ON FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP MODEL THIS BANK OF
SATURATED AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND SO
I`VE KEPT MENTION OF IFR AT SLK THROUGH 15Z GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR. THERE IS A CLEARING LINE ON THE NIGHT IR SATELLITE WHERE MSS
HAS JUST STARTED TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF A BREAK IN THE CLOUD CEILING
SO IS POSSIBLE SLK COULD BOUNCE UP FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AS A SECOND SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH
IN FROM CANADA AND LEAD TO DECREASED CEILINGS AGAIN. ANTICIPATE
BETWEEN A POTENTIAL MVFR CLOUD DECK BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
TAFS SITES AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE FINALLY
STARTING TO DRY OUT. AT RUT, THE MVFR CEILING SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN
TO ERODE WITH DAYBREAK AND EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z WITH FEW
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS MID DAY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK
AND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE 18Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY TO BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND MVFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL/MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
914 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR SKIES OUT LATER TODAY INTO
MONDAY, BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM SPREADS RAIN TOWARD NY AND PA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF PA LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW AND TRAPPED UNDER A
FORMIDABLE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, AS EVIDENCED BY REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS. ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND THE POCONOS), SUNSHINE HAS BEEN MORE
PREVALENT.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE NAM AND HRRR HAVE, BY FAR, THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONFIGURATION DESCRIBED ABOVE,
WITH MOST OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC/DRY, WITH REGARDS TO SKY COVER. USING THE NAM AND HRRR
AS A GUIDE, WE MAY SEE SOME FURTHER EROSION OF THE CLOUD MASS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, YIELDING MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE FOR
NORTHEAST PA, AS WELL AS SECTIONS OF SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES IN NY. ELSEWHERE, CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
UPPER HAND, AS MIXING/ASSOCIATED CLEARING POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED UNDER THE ABOVE REFERENCED CAPPING INVERSION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, THEY WILL BE CHILLY WHERE
SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S), WITH LOW-MID 40S
ANTICIPATED WHERE THE SUN BREAKS THROUGH, OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
AS FAR AS THIS EVENING IS CONCERNED, FOR NOW, WE BLENDED TODAY`S
SKY COVER GRIDS IN WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THIS
STRATEGY WOULD YIELD AN EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD BE OPTIMISTIC, PENDING
SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE LATER
TODAY. WE`LL ADDRESS THIS SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 2 AM UPDATE...
MODELS ARE NOT PROVIDING MUCH USEFUL GUIDANCE REGARDING TRAPPED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MOS PRODUCTS / SUPERBLEND ATTEMPT TO CLEAR
SKIES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, BUT THIS DOESN`T SEEM REALISTIC.
WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON BEFORE
ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WOUND UP UL LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PULL RAIN INTO OUR FA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW SO WILL OPT TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE HWO.
THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE FOR A SLOWER PRECIP ONSET MONDAY NIGHT,
AND WE HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DELAYED
THE TIMING. ONCE THE RAIN DOES SPREAD IN, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
CONTINUING RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY, WHEN WE INTRODUCE HIGH LIKELY TO
CAT POPS INTO THE GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AS LATEST MODEL
RUNS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS SHOWERY AS
SFC OCCLUSION PASSES THROUGH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND SOME LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL KEEP SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE FAIR AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND SFC HIGH
PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
130 PM UPDATE... MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
RECENT PREVIOUS RUNS, YIELDING A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
IN THE BIG PICTURE, A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS
STILL FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST, EASTWARD TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED-THU. THEREAFTER, HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE
OVER THE EASTERN U.S./SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, AS ANOTHER AMPLIFIED
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE, WEDNESDAY LOOKS SHOWERY, AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM, AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTAL COMPLEX, TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY MAY FEATURE
A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS, WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S). FRI-SAT LOOK DRY,
FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR, OR ABOVE NORMAL, FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND BASED ON NAM/RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WEAK NW FLOW
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AT KRME/KSYR THEN SCATTER OUT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS KAVP WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT.
N/NW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR.
TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY, IN LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT
RAIN.
THU...MOSTLY VFR, BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BURLINGTON VT
659 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CALM AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND TO START THE WORK WEEK. BY MID WEEK EXPECT
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX SWITCHING
TO RAIN AND THEN ENDING WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY
DECEMBER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 639 AM EST SUNDAY...CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE TO THE FORECAST
MAINLY INCLUDE INCREASING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC
SNOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. 700MB FLOW REMAINS NORTHWEST AND AS
THE MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW COULD
DEVELOP. NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT BUT ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE BLOCKED FLOW AND A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 950MB AND 850MB IS
POSSIBLE FOR SNOW TO FALL ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF BOTH THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS BETWEEN 00-06Z THIS EVENING. SNOW...IF
IT DOES FALL WOULD ONLY BE LIKELY ABOVE 1500 FT AND REALLY ONLY ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE
HOLDING CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 350 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TRICKY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TODAY. THE ONLY
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS A THIN LAYER OF SATURATED AIR BETWEEN
1000-900MB WITH FORECAST MODELS CONTINUING TO POINT TO THIS
STARTING TO ERODE RIGHT AROUND DAY BREAK. HOWEVER, A SECOND
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE CLOUDS BUILD BACK IN
BEHIND THE ERODING CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING. BASED ON LATEST
HIRES GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS I CLEARED OUT MUCH OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT IN THE AFTERNOON WHEREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WITH NEW YORK VERMONT AND CANADA EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON.
THE MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY WITH THE TYPICAL
COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
ONLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S WITH THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WARMING TO THE MID 30S. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS DOWN
THOUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO AS WE TURN TOWARDS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FORECAST 925MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -7C TO
-10C. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WITH SPOTTY CLOUD COVER OVER WILL LEAD TO
A LARGE RANGE OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT
INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL LIKELY RADIATE OUT TO THE LOW
TEENS OR EVEN NEAR SINGLE DIGITS WHEREAS THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURE COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO DROP TO THE LOW TEENS WITH THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS COOLING TO THE UPPER TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HOLDING OFF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S BY THE TIME THE RAIN SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW A WET TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT.
EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECTING ANY RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON THURSDAY FROM A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAIN ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENTLY SLK IS UNDER IFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
LIKELY ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER. BASED ON FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP MODEL THIS BANK OF
SATURATED AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND SO
I`VE KEPT MENTION OF IFR AT SLK THROUGH 15Z GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR. THERE IS A CLEARING LINE ON THE NIGHT IR SATELLITE WHERE MSS
HAS JUST STARTED TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF A BREAK IN THE CLOUD CEILING
SO IS POSSIBLE SLK COULD BOUNCE UP FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AS A SECOND SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH
IN FROM CANADA AND LEAD TO DECREASED CEILINGS AGAIN. ANTICIPATE
BETWEEN A POTENTIAL MVFR CLOUD DECK BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
TAFS SITES AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE FINALLY
STARTING TO DRY OUT. AT RUT, THE MVFR CEILING SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN
TO ERODE WITH DAYBREAK AND EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z WITH FEW
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS MID DAY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK
AND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE 18Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY TO BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND MVFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL/MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW CLEARING TREND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS...THAT COULD START AS A WINTRY
MIX AND END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1241 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER REMAINS THE DIFFICULT
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS RH IN THE 925MB LAYER REMAINS SATURATED
WHILE DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN ABOVE 850MB. I CONTINUED THE TREND OF
SHOWING THE SLOW TRANSITION AND CLEARING WITH THE WESTERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY CLEARING FIRST AS SHOWN
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT ON THE NIGHTTIME IR SATELLITE
PRODUCTS. WITH THAT NARROW LAYER OF SATURATED AIR THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INSULATE THE SURFACE JUST SLIGHTLY AND SO I KEPT UP
THE IDEA THAT WHILE TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLE COLD, OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE CURRENT GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING IN AND EXCEPT FOR THE CLOUD COVER THE FORECAST
IS QUIET WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 933 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST
CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS AMOUNT OF CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. IR SATELLITE PICS SHOW
UPSTREAM CLEARING UNDER SURFACE RIDGE AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THIS THINKING WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN SURFACE
AND 800MB. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH VERY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS CLEARING JUST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN BORDER THAT IS NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THERE ARE ALSO SMALL POCKETS OF CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL VT THAT ARE ADDING TO THE MIX. WITH ALL OF THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE COMPLEX SKY COVER AND WEAK
ADVECTION...BUT WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. THINKING LOW
TEENS IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO LOW TO MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. IF MORE CLEARING DEVELOPS THAN ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HOLDING OFF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S BY THE TIME THE RAIN SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW A WET TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT.
EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECTING ANY RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON THURSDAY FROM A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAIN ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO ALL VFR BY 9-12Z THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY
VFR OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEAR. THIS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH BTV IMPROVING BY 09Z AND THEN FOLLOWED
LATER BY RUT AND SLK. THERE IS SOME DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS SO EXPECT MPV TO STAY VFR WITH ONLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2500FT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
INCREASED MOISTURE MOVING IN BETWEEN 21-00Z TOMORROW WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A MVFR CLOUD DECK BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN TAFS SITES BUT FOR THE MOMENT HAVE JUST CARRIED A CEILING
OF 3500-4000FT BUILDING IN AT ALL SITES OTHER THAN RUT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS MID DAY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK
AND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE 18Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY TO BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND MVFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL/MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
101 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW CLEARING TREND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS...THAT COULD START AS A WINTRY
MIX AND END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1241 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER REMAINS THE DIFFICULT
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS RH IN THE 925MB LAYER REMAINS SATURATED
WHILE DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN ABOVE 850MB. I CONTINUED THE TREND OF
SHOWING THE SLOW TRANSITION AND CLEARING WITH THE WESTERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY CLEARING FIRST AS SHOWN
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT ON THE NIGHTTIME IR SATELLITE
PRODUCTS. WITH THAT NARROW LAYER OF SATURATED AIR THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INSULATE THE SURFACE JUST SLIGHTLY AND SO I KEPT UP
THE IDEA THAT WHILE TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLE COLD, OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE CURRENT GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING IN AND EXCEPT FOR THE CLOUD COVER THE FORECAST
IS QUIET WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 933 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST
CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS AMOUNT OF CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. IR SATELLITE PICS SHOW
UPSTREAM CLEARING UNDER SURFACE RIDGE AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THIS THINKING WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN SURFACE
AND 800MB. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH VERY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS CLEARING JUST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN BORDER THAT IS NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THERE ARE ALSO SMALL POCKETS OF CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL VT THAT ARE ADDING TO THE MIX. WITH ALL OF THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE COMPLEX SKY COVER AND WEAK
ADVECTION...BUT WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. THINKING LOW
TEENS IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO LOW TO MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. IF MORE CLEARING DEVELOPS THAN ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...ON SUNDAY STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. AREA SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z
SUNDAY. HAVE NOTED WEAK SECONDARY SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...ALONG WITH EMBEDDED 5H VORT IN THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THINKING THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH LIMITED CLEARING ON
UPSTREAM SATL PICS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS OUR
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY
IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ARE BETWEEN -2C SOUTH TO -6C
NORTH ON SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAIN
TOWNS TO UPPER 30S VALLEYS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED NORTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
DEEPER PROTECTED VALLEYS WITH THE WARMEST ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. A CHILLY BUT
MAINLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS WARM
SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS
AFTER A CHILLY START. ANOTHER DRY NIGHT EXPECTED ON MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COMPLEX LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE LIKELY. DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL RESULT IN COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING PROFILES AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION IS EXPECTED WITH WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS AND COLDEST IN THE
PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER/MID TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/SAINT LAWRENCE AND MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS FORECAST AREA. THE DAY WILL START
OFF BELOW FREEZING...BUT ENOUGH WARMING INDICATED BY AFTERNOON SO
THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY IN FORM OF RAIN...WITH JUST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE AT ONSET. PERIODS OF RAIN
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST...AND WEAK
SECONDARY REFLECTION INDICATED ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
30S.
MORE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKE THEIR EASTWARD INTO FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY AND THEN PASS
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLING
TEMPS ALOFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SOME
SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANY
SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
EXPECT SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SOME CLEARING WILL FOLLOW FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO ALL VFR BY 9-12Z THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY
VFR OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEAR. THIS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH BTV IMPROVING BY 09Z AND THEN FOLLOWED
LATER BY RUT AND SLK. THERE IS SOME DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS SO EXPECT MPV TO STAY VFR WITH ONLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2500FT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
INCREASED MOISTURE MOVING IN BETWEEN 21-00Z TOMORROW WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A MVFR CLOUD DECK BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN TAFS SITES BUT FOR THE MOMENT HAVE JUST CARRIED A CEILING
OF 3500-4000FT BUILDING IN AT ALL SITES OTHER THAN RUT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS MID DAY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK
AND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE 18Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY TO BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND MVFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL/MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1144 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL NOT FAR FROM AVERAGE FOR THE
END OF NOVEMBER. THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUD COVER STILL REMAINS THE BIG
FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD...AS A STRONG INVERSION WITH A
COOL...MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW UNDER IT REMAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING NOW FOUND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON. EXPECT
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCO
BELOW...
THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS CLOUD COVER...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGESTING THAT MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO QUICK TO CLEAR SKIES OUT.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVELS WILL DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY...THERE WILL BE
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION.
NAM BUFKIT AND THE HRRR CAPTURE THIS MOISTURE...BUT THIS GUIDANCE IS
SOMETIMES TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN THIS CASE...THE
NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS THE
FORECAST WILL FAVOR THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS MAY REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF CLOUDS POSSIBLE
AN ALL AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER
IS LOW.
THIS WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPERATURES...SINCE CLOUD COVER WOULD PREVENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH A PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ELSEWHERE LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN
THE UPPER 20S...BUT POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER IF THERE IS ANY
CLEARING. ALSO...IF SKIES DO CLEAR OUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN SPOTS.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...WITH MODEST DAYTIME MIXING LIKELY TO
MIX OUT THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MOST GUIDANCE
HANGS ONTO AT LEAST SOME LOW MOISTURE...AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FORECASTS SOME LIGHT QPF. MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER LIGHT QPF CAN
SOMETIMES BE A SIGNAL BY MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THERE WILL BE LOW
STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT WIND DIRECTION FROM NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL... ONLY
ABOUT 0.15 INCH PW... KEEP CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE COOL AND DRY AIR WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EACH DAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS WILL
PROMOTE LOWS IN THE 20S... AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AS LOW-
LEVEL RETURN FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S FROM THE FINGER LAKES
TO LAKE ERIE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE A RAPIDLY OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW NEARLY BENEATH IT...AND A
POCKET OF COLD AIR SWEEPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PW EXCEEDING AN INCH...WILL PROVIDE
A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE FOR RAINFALL STARTING MID MORNING ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADY RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR AN INCH
ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN TO A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO RISE ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CUT-OFF LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL FINALLY BE ON
THE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW... WITH AN AMPLE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE WARM FRONT /
DEVELOPING LLJ SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS A BAND OF RAINFALL THAT WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO
THE LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY. THE BY TUESDAY EVENING OR INTO WEDNESDAY
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK AND TIMING
BETWEEN THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN IMPROVING... THERE
REMAINS ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC. THE
ENSEMBLES / ESPECIALLY THE EC ENSEMBLES/ DEPICT AN INTERESTING BI-
MODAL DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING... WITH ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY LIKE THE GFS AND THE
OTHER HALF HOLD IT BACK UNTIL WEDNESDAY LIKE THE OPERATIONAL EC...
WITH FEW ENSEMBLES IN THE MIDDLE GROUND.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TIMING... BY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
THEN SETTLE EAST OF THE LAKES INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CUT-
OFF NATURE OF THIS LOW... THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL COLD AIR TAP FROM
HIGHER LATITUDES... AND MODELS ARE ONLY DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS DOWN
TO ABOUT -4 TO -7C IN THE CORE OF THE LOW. THESE MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
48F LAKE SURFACES... HOWEVER... EXPECT MAINLY THE HIGHER HILLS SOUTH
OF BUFFALO AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT
COULD REALLY SEE LAKE SHOWERS MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT... IT IS NOT LOOKING GREAT FOR BUFFALO TO SEE ITS
FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH THIS STORM... WHICH
TAKES US THROUGH DECEMBER 2ND AND 3RD (ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE
IT OUT YET). THE RECORD LATEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT KBUF IS
DECEMBER 3RD (WHICH OCCURRED IN 1899). IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH
THIS STORM SYSTEM WITHOUT MEASURING 0.1 INCHES OF SNOW... IT COULD
ACTUALLY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE GET ANOTHER CHANCE AT SNOW. AFTER
THIS STORM SYSTEM... RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES NORTH TO THE HUDSON BAY FROM THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES (GEFS THROUGH
360HRS AND THE CFS) INDICATE THAT THIS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FEATURE THAT COULD LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE 2ND
OR 3RD WEEK OF DECEMBER. SHOULD THIS COME TO FRUITION... WE WOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...
AND ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR REMAINING AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH PERHAPS ONLY A FEW MARGINAL CHANCES AT PICKING UP
SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 06Z EXPANSIVE MVFR
CIGS...AND AT TIMES IFR CIGS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE TAF REGION.
COOL...MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WITH CLEARING EDGING SOUTHWARD SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH. IFR
FLIGHT CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HILLS OF SW NYS...WITH MAINLY
MVFR ELSEWHERE.
AS THE SKIES DO CLEAR THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHES OF FOG THAT FORM
LATER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE LOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO
SUNDAY...WITH AT TIMES MVFR CIGS NEARING KROC AND KIAG. AFTER THESE
CLOUDS DIMINISH EXPECT THEN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE SOUTHERN TIER FOG TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RAIN. MAINLY MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY AND AND
THEN DRIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MID WEEK WHICH WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
PICK UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND
IT. THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE WATERS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
631 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE ON WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUES
TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN-MOST FRINGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO CIRRUS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
KEEP THE MID LEVELS ON THE DRY SIDE SO DO NOT SEE COLUMN
MOISTENING UP MUCH MORE THAN WHAT WE ALREADY HAVE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
DIVERSE WEATHER BISECTING NE SC FROM SE NC WHERE IN KINGSTREE
SC...73 DEGREES WITH SUNSHINE IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO 58 DEGREES
WITH A 500 FOOT OVERCAST IN LUMBERTON NC. CLOUDS ARE APT FILL IN
HOWEVER OVER NE SC TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST
S-SSW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIURNAL COOLING TREND BOOSTS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET.
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF VERY SE NC BUT A
FEW SPRITZES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT...FAVORED NORTH OF A CAPE FEAR TO FLORENCE SOUTH
CAROLINA LINE. THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE CONTRAST FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WILL PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALTHOUGH NOT AS
AUSTERE...WITH MINIMUMS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF SE NC TO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS INLAND NE SC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATER
WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG
OF THE FRONT. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT AS THE SHOWERS APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THEY WEAKEN AND REFORM NEAR OR OFF THE COAST. MAY
ALSO SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PEE DEE
AND AREAS N AND W OF LUMBERTON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY THEN HOLD WELL ABOVE CLIMO WEDNESDAY IN THE WARM REGIME
PROCEEDING THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT
ON TAP UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH THE BOTTOM LINE FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS THAT IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN TWO DISTINCT CAMPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE ECMWF
A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING SOLUTION. WPC HAS USED A BLEND. I DID
WALK BACK POPS AND CLOUD COVER FURTHER FOR FRIDAY AS MODELS TREND
FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH ANY ACTIVITY. BEYOND THIS MODEST RIDGING
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES DICTATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY ORIENTED SOLUTION...CONTINUED TO GO SOMEWHAT
BELOW MEX NUMBERS PER WPC AND ADJACENT OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH. THE HRRR MODEL WAS PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS SCENARIO.
SOME LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD AFFECT LBT...BUT
LITTLE AVIATION IMPACT EXPECTED. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE
AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BECOMING IFR SOMETIME IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. WEDGE WILL TRY TO HANG
IN THERE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WAVE NORTHWARD
AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VSBY FROM PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING NE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. NO
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
SLIGHT EASING OF NE WINDS WILL BE TRENDING OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED
BY A SLIGHT VEERING TO ENE. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS
WILL BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE
SPECTRUM A MIX OF NE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 5 SECONDS AND E WAVES
2-3 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM
WATERS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER
REMAINS POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR BUT NO SEVERE LIMITS TO
VISIBILITY EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS
DURING TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO VEER FROM AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT NIGHT. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE DURING WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS SLATED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL VEERING TO THE WEST AND
FINALLY NORTH VERY LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SWAN WAVE FIELD
APPEARS REASONABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH DID KNOCK
SEAS DOWN A BIT LATE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ENDING LATE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE...INITIALLY WEAK AND
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. WIND SPEEDS SHOW A STEADY STATE 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING THEN AN EXTENDED UPTICK TO 20-25 INTO
SUNDAY. A SLOW DECREASE IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL INCREASE FROM 3-5 FEET FRIDAY TO WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...99
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK/SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
935 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
BASED ON RECENT HRRR/RAP RUN-TOTAL LIQUID-EQUIVALENT FORECASTS OF
0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES IN WELLS AND FOSTER COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW BEING REPORTED UPSTREAM OVER
EASTERN ND...WE ADDED WELLS AND FOSTER COUNTIES TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
OTHERWISE...THE GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK...THOUGH RADAR
TRENDS THROUGH 0330 UTC SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW IS GOING TO SPREAD JUST
A BIT FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THAN EARLIER FORECAST. WE THUS CHOSE
TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT A BIT FROM DICKINSON TOWARD MINOT. MOST
SNOWFALL REPORTS THUS FAR THIS EVENING ARE IN LINE WITH THE GOING
FORECAST AND RANGE FROM 3 INCHES IN ELLENDALE TO 0.8 INCHES AT THE
NWS OFFICE IN BISMARCK AS OF 0330 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NECESSARY WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE
CYCLE. SNOW IS SPREADING WEST AND NORTHWEST AND IS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE FROM COOPERSTOWN TO VALLEY CITY...ASHLEY AND MOBRIDGE AT 00
UTC. WE DID INCREASE POPS INTO THE 100 PERCENT RANGE THIS EVENING
IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE IT IS DEFINITELY SNOWING
AND WE ALSO SPREAD 20 TO 30 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES A BIT FURTHER TO
THE NORTH /INTO THE RUGBY AREA/ BASED ON TIME-LAGGED HRRR OUTPUT.
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES OR FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN IOWA WITH HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO PASS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BROAD AREA OF SNOW HAS
NOW SPREAD OVER CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SOME
INITIAL POCKETS OF SNOW PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL
SHIFT TO AN EAST/NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AND PASS OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WITH BROAD COVERAGE DEVELOPING
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH GOING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. STILL A LITTLE QUESTION IF SNOW MAY LIFT A BIT
FURTHER NORTH AS LATEST GUIDANCE PLACES A WEAK TROWAL WORKING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE SNOWFALL
DEVELOPS OVER THIS EVENING TO SEE IF THIS ACTUALLY COULD BECOME A
CONCERN. OVER THE NORTHWEST...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING. GIVEN THAT THIS AREA HAD FOG
DEVELOP THIS MORNING HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY...SNOW WILL START TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST MAINLY ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER. HAD SOME
CONCERN WITH INCREASING WINDS OVER EASTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA GIVEN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING...SO HAVE KEPT WINDS ON
THE TAMER SIDE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
BY TUESDAY EVENING THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE BORDER OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ANTICIPATED SNOW TO EXTEND TO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY EVENING FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE
CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. A WARM NORTHWEST TO WEST H850
FLOW SHOULD BRING A CHINOOK FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES...BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY 30-40...TO 35-
45 BY FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE ROCKIES. THE
NORTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE TROUGH (IN CANADA) PREDOMINATES AND A
STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CANADA...KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CONTINUED MILD
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 45 AND LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL ND /INCLUDING AT THE KBIS AND KJMS TERMINALS/ TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO LIKELY IMPACT KDIK. LOW
CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL ND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THAT STRATUS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18 UTC TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ047-048-
050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ023-025-034>037-042-045-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
610 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NECESSARY WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE
CYCLE. SNOW IS SPREADING WEST AND NORTHWEST AND IS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE FROM COOPERSTOWN TO VALLEY CITY...ASHLEY AND MOBRIDGE AT 00
UTC. WE DID INCREASE POPS INTO THE 100 PERCENT RANGE THIS EVENING
IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE IT IS DEFINITELY SNOWING
AND WE ALSO SPREAD 20 TO 30 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES A BIT FURTHER TO
THE NORTH /INTO THE RUGBY AREA/ BASED ON TIME-LAGGED HRRR OUTPUT.
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES OR FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN IOWA WITH HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO PASS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BROAD AREA OF SNOW HAS
NOW SPREAD OVER CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SOME
INITIAL POCKETS OF SNOW PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL
SHIFT TO AN EAST/NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AND PASS OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WITH BROAD COVERAGE DEVELOPING
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH GOING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. STILL A LITTLE QUESTION IF SNOW MAY LIFT A BIT
FURTHER NORTH AS LATEST GUIDANCE PLACES A WEAK TROWAL WORKING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE SNOWFALL
DEVELOPS OVER THIS EVENING TO SEE IF THIS ACTUALLY COULD BECOME A
CONCERN. OVER THE NORTHWEST...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING. GIVEN THAT THIS AREA HAD FOG
DEVELOP THIS MORNING HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY...SNOW WILL START TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST MAINLY ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER. HAD SOME
CONCERN WITH INCREASING WINDS OVER EASTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA GIVEN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING...SO HAVE KEPT WINDS ON
THE TAMER SIDE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
BY TUESDAY EVENING THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE BORDER OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ANTICIPATED SNOW TO EXTEND TO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY EVENING FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE
CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. A WARM NORTHWEST TO WEST H850
FLOW SHOULD BRING A CHINOOK FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES...BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY 30-40...TO 35-
45 BY FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE ROCKIES. THE
NORTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE TROUGH (IN CANADA) PREDOMINATES AND A
STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CANADA...KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CONTINUED MILD
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 45 AND LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL ND /INCLUDING AT THE KBIS AND KJMS TERMINALS/ TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO IMPACT KDIK. LOW CEILINGS AND
POSSIBLY FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THAT STRATUS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST AFTER 18 UTC TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ047-048-
050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ034>037-042-045-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
310 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW STARTING TO COME INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.
WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR OBS SHOW A LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED OVER
UT/SOUTHEAST WY. ONE LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY BEEN LIFTING
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS BUT PRODUCING ONLY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WITH
NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND. WILL WATCH AS IT GOES OVER SOME OF
OUR SOUTHERN AUTOMATED SITES AND PUT IN A FLURRY MENTION IF NEEDED
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT. TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. TEMPS IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 30S. TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL TO OUR WEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS NORTH BUT THE SOUTH WILL STAY IN THE 20S
WITH CLOUD COVER.
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY WOBBLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW.
MODELS ALL HAVE THE SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO WESTERN IA
BY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF VARIATION IN EXACTLY
HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW CENTER TRACKS AND HOW FAR INTO THE CWA THE
PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDS. THE TREND THIS TIME IS FURTHER NORTH WITH
MOST MODELS...AND THE NAM HAS SOME HIGH QPF EVEN NORTH OF FARGO.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE HIGH...WITH A PLUME OF FARGO SNOW
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO OVER 6 INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING.
WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED ON THE PATH OF HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR FOR NOW. THINK THAT SNOW WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND SO HAVE EARLY MORNING MONDAY
DRY BUT RAMP UP POPS QUICKLY IN THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AND SOME 6 PLUS INCH
AMOUNTS ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT PUT OUT AN SPS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND IA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
VARIATIONS IN WHERE EXACTLY THE SFC LOW TRACKS AND THE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETS UP MAKE THINGS UNCERTAIN...BUT STILL THINK THE BEST SHOT
AT SOME DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES SO KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN THAT AREA. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS FURTHER AWAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 20S AT NIGHT AND 30S
DURING THE DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY BE DOMINATED
BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. NORTHERN
TIER WILL HAVE A SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH WED NIGHT...HOWEVER MOST
ENERGY WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH WITH PRECIP OVER NORTHERN MB AND
NW ONTARIO. A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETS UP FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
LATEST FORECAST FOR TAF SITES HAS MVFR VIS IN KDVL. HRRR MODEL
INDICATING THAT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE...HOWEVER...LATEST NAM
NOT FAVORING FOG AS MUCH AS BEFORE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITE
CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. KGFK SHOULD AVOID FOG TO THE NORTH ALSO...BUT
IT COULD BE CLOSE. OTHERWISE...BENIGN WEATHER AT OTHER SITES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
109 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO DROP WHERE THE SKY IS CLEAR...INCREASING
ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS ARE INCREASING INTO. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THUS FAR STILL WAITING FOR FOG TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST. SCALED
BACK ON THE TIMING BUT DID KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
LATEST HRRR NOT AS DIRE WITH THE FOG EITHER.
LOW POPS ARE GOOD TO GO ACROSS THE SOUTH AS DOUBTFUL MUCH IS
REACHING THE GROUND. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS WINNING THE BATTLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE CREATED GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...SO TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
DROPPING MORE QUICKLY AND FURTHER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THOSE TRENDS...SO WE NOW HAVE
LOWS OF 0 TO 10 ABOVE F IN MANY PARTS THE AREA. OBSERVATIONS THUS
FAR THIS EVENING HAVE SHOWN DEWPOINTS DROPPING JUST AS QUICKLY AS
THE TEMPERATURES...THUS DELAYING FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT HRRR MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ITS FORMATION AFTER 06 UTC. BASED ON
THE TRENDS IN HRRR SIMULATIONS...WE DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF FOG
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW IS INDEED WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
ND AND SD BORDER...BUT WE DID ADJUST POPS A BIT OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND TONIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND TIME-LAGGED
ENSEMBLE HRRR GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LIGHT SNOW OVER
WESTERN SD WOULD APPEAR A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
WOULD HAVE US BELIEVE...BUT IT IS INDEED WEAKENING WITH NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT LIKE MODEL SIMULATIONS SUGGEST SO WE WILL HANG ONTO ONLY
LOW POPS NEAR THE SD BORDER OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS
GOING TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH THE MOST RECENT HRRR
RUN FROM 22 UTC SUGGESTS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD /FURTHER SOUTH/
WITH LOWER VISIBILITY THAN ITS PRIOR FEW ITERATIONS. WE WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF ANY EXPANSION OF
OUR FOG MENTION IS NECESSARY IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST BRINGING
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT BASIN WITH LEADING
WAVE BRINGING SNOW TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER OUR AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
WITH THAT SAID...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A MAINLY DRY SOLUTION
OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE ACTUALLY DRIED THINGS OUT MORE IN THE LATEST
RUN. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY KEEP LOW CHANCES ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN
TIER. TOWARDS THE NORTH...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH HIGH-RES
MODELS SUGGEST FOG FORMING OVER THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
SPREADING SOUTHERLY IN AREAS THAT REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR. HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
TO SEE IF COVERAGE NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED.
ON SUNDAY...UPPER LOW STRETCHES TOWARDS NORTHEAST WYOMING KEEPING
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH...CLOUDY THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE WHILE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS SNOW CHANCES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH OR LITTLE SNOW PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA
RECEIVE. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE
LOW BY A HUNDRED MILES OR SO. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BRING THE LOW
NEAR SIOUX FALLS AND THROUGH MINNEAPOLIS. THIS TRACK FAVORS SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND SREF
PUSH THE LOW FURTHER EAST INTO IOWA AND WISCONSIN. THIS TRACK
WOULD LEAVE MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH VERY
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. UTILIZED A BLEND OF ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST. THIS YIELDED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN INCH AROUND I-94 AND CLOSER TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN JAMES VALLEY. WHILE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I-94...THESE AMOUNTS COULD CHANGE
DRASTICALLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING INCLUDING KBIS-
KJMS. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE NORTH WITH IFR OR
LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IMPACTING KISN-KMOT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1201 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
DROPPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS TEND TO FAVOR FOG SOUTH
OF DEVILS LAKE A LITTLE FURTHER. UPDATED FOG EXTENT SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO NW GRIGGS COUNTY. FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE GRAND FORKS AREA ACCORDING TO THE HRRR.
HOWEVER...THE NEW NAM MOS GUIDANCE REMOVED MENTION OF FOG. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FOG NORTH AND WEST OF GF.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
FRESHENED UP A FEW FORECAST GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. CHANGED SKY
GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL DATA. ALL IN ALL...THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON NORTHERN MN FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH. MAY NEED TO EXPAND FOG FROM NORTHERN ND AND
FAR NW MN FURTHER EAST TO BAUDETTE. WILL CONSIDER WITH NEXT
UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON SURFACE LOW TRACK AFFECTING
SNOW AMOUNTS AND HOW FAR NORTH SNOW SHIELD WILL GET. THERE HAS
BEEN A MODEL TREND OF DELAYING ARRIVAL OF SNOW. MODELS ALSO SEEM
TO BE TRENDING A BIT SOUTH THIS RUN WITH EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF
WHICH IS FARTHEST NORTH AND THIS RUN AN OUTLIER. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS CONSISTENCY AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE.
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVERNIGHT. AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW LATER TONIGHT SHOULD
SPREAD BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTH HALF HALF OF
THE FA. FARTHER NORTH UNDER SKC AND LIGHT WINDS AREAS OF FOG ARE
POSSIBLE AND ADDED TO FORECAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDER CLOUD COVER.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF SUNDAY WITH LOBE ROTATING AROUND
UPPER LOW SO MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST. WILL ACTUALLY SEE SOME
COOLER SPREADING FROM S-N DURING THE DAY AND MORE CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SLOWING UP ARRIVAL OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION WITH FAVORED POTENTIAL NOW MORE TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DID MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
BEST SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT MONDAY. HIGHEST POPS STILL
EXPECTED ALONG THE ND/SD MN BORDER REGIONS WITH MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY NO HEADLINES
PLANNED AT THIS POINT.
SNOW SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE SE FA TUESDAY DIMINISHING FROM W TO E
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS...CLOUDINESS AND NORTHWEST WINDS ON
TUESDAY EVENING...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE APPEARS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A MOVE TOWARDS
MORE DOMINANT H5 RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WE CAN EXPECT A SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRY NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
TROFFING DIGS DEEPLY INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY COULD BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT /MIXED/
PRECIPITATION AS A CUTOFF LOW REFORMS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND
THE H5 TROF AXIS PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
LATEST FORECAST FOR TAF SITES HAS MVFR VIS IN KDVL. HRRR MODEL
INDICATING THAT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE...HOWEVER...LATEST NAM
NOT FAVORING FOG AS MUCH AS BEFORE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITE
CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. KGFK SHOULD AVOID FOG TO THE NORTH ALSO...BUT
IT COULD BE CLOSE. OTHERWISE...BENIGN WEATHER AT OTHER SITES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
142 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH TODAY...STALLS TONIGHT...THEN RETURNS AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF AROUND 1 PM...COLD FRONT SINKING INTO SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS. SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO MOVE INTO SE OHIO...BUT IT IS
SLOW GOING AND THINK LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF
WV/KY/VA. SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING INTO TN
VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD DRIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
CWA TONIGHT...SLIDING NORTH UP THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. WARM FRONT
INCHING TOWARD SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE MONDAY AS DEEPENING LOW MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...THINGS ARE PRETTY MESSY
ALOFT WITH LOTS OF LITTLE RIPPLES SLIDING THROUGH. DUE TO
THIS...KEPT LOW END POPS ACROSS MUCH OF CWA...AND HAVE DRIZZLE
MENTIONED AS WELL THROUGH TONIGHT.
DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS...USING A BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS BLEND. DID MIX IN SOME HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLAT 5H RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS CUT-OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PLOWS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND MOVES NORTH WITH CUT-OFF LOW. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL KEEP TO OUR SOUTH JUST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING US TO AVOID ANY WATER ISSUES. HOWEVER...THIS
FORECAST PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE FAIRLY WET WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF
QPF FIGURED FOR THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...BLENDING IN THE SREF LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR POPS...AND OVERALL BLEND FOR THE TEMPS. RESULT IS NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST AND A CONTINUATION TO THE
MILD AND WET PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE A LITTLE SHARPER AND COOLER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A BIT
MORE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL
LINGER THE SCATTERED NORTHERN MOUNTAIN RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
ENDING BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS REMAINDER OF THE
AREA IN THE COLD ADVECTION. STILL NO REALLY COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY WARM UP...TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY SATURDAY UNDER LACK OF CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOTS OF IFR ACROSS WV TODAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THINGS MAY CHANGE
CATEGORY...BUT THE OVERALL STORY IS LOW STRATUS...DRIZZLE AND RAIN
TODAY RESULTING IN IFR TO LOW MVFR. HAVE FOG SETTLING INTO
VALLEYS TONIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO HUMID LOW LEVELS. WHILE CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN...DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO LIMIT FOG MUCH. BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ANY CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
THEN COLD FRONT PASS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/26
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1223 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND EXTEND A
RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MERGE WITH A LOW
OVER IOWA WHERE IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. THE LOW WILL FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
7AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS WEAKENING AND MOISTURE
IS PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH. THIS CAUSED THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO DISSIPATE RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH THE HRRR MODEL. NEXT ISSUE
REQUIRING SOME MODIFICATION IS THE CLOUDS. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMED INTO THE AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ALONG WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. SO ADJUSTED CLOUDS WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SWING BY TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A
DISTURBANCE TO CAUSE SOME UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES TO SHAKE OUT
SOME PRECIPITATION. FORT WAYNE REPORTED SOME LIGHT SNOW WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WAS IN SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. FURTHER
EAST...MARION REPORTED SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH SOME UNKNOWN
PRECIPITATION. IT IS UP IN THE AIR WHETHER THIS IS SNOW OR JUST
VERY SMALL PRECIPITATION THAT THE SENSOR CANT DISCERN WHAT THE
TYPE IS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ADDED A PRE
FIRST PERIOD WITH A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 6 AM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...TO THE
NORTH...FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES TRYING
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS
UPSTREAM ARE SURGING EAST NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME. PLUS...LAKE IS
PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AS
WELL. SO...OVERALL...IT IS GOING TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE SUN
AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE AROUND 40 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AREAS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH
FOR HIGHS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUD COVER TO MATCH EARLIER WX/POP
CHANGES FROM MONDAY NIGHT ON.
ORIGINAL...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE WILL HELP
KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA PERSISTENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
IOWA AND CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN UNDERNEATH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SEND AN OCCLUDED
FRONT EAST WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
ALL THAT COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A WINDOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD SET UP BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. PLUS...INSTABILITY BETWEEN LAKE
SURFACE AND 850 MB IS ONLY CONDITIONAL. SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION GOING AS WRAP AROUND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE HELPS TO
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE EXTENDING BACK WEST OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...CANT RULE OUT SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A WARM UP TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN...NON DIURNAL
TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR STARTS TO PUSH IN AROUND
15Z IN THE MORNING. I TREND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DOWNWARD THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF IS COLDER THAN THE GFS ON THURSDAY AT 850 MB. TEMPERATURES
AROUND -6 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. IF THERE IS ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND NW PA AND POSSIBLY GEAUGA
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT LOOKS AS IF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THEN
SLOWLY WARMING INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS BY SUNDAY MAY BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 50.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE DRIER AIR IN LOWER
LEVELS BEING PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE MVFR LEVEL
CU AT SCT OR LESS COVERAGE THRU 18Z MON. THIS SHOULD LEAVE MAINLY
JUST CIRRUS AS THE PREVAILING CLOUD FOR TONIGHT AND MON MORNING
WHICH SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. NE WINDS 10
KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD PREVAIL GRADUALLY VEERING TO EAST.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH TO NORTH MON NIGHT THEN
TEND TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT FOR THU.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER HIGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT DRIFTS OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. AS A LONGER FETCH DEVELOPS WAVES
WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET FROM AVON POINT TO RIPLEY.
WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...TK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1200 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND EXTEND A
RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MERGE WITH A LOW
OVER IOWA WHERE IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. THE LOW WILL FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
7AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS WEAKENING AND MOISTURE
IS PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH. THIS CAUSED THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO DISSIPATE RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH THE HRRR MODEL. NEXT ISSUE
REQUIRING SOME MODIFICATION IS THE CLOUDS. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMED INTO THE AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ALONG WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. SO ADJUSTED CLOUDS WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SWING BY TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A
DISTURBANCE TO CAUSE SOME UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES TO SHAKE OUT
SOME PRECIPITATION. FORT WAYNE REPORTED SOME LIGHT SNOW WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WAS IN SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. FURTHER
EAST...MARION REPORTED SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH SOME UNKNOWN
PRECIPITATION. IT IS UP IN THE AIR WHETHER THIS IS SNOW OR JUST
VERY SMALL PRECIPITATION THAT THE SENSOR CANT DISCERN WHAT THE
TYPE IS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ADDED A PRE
FIRST PERIOD WITH A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 6 AM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...TO THE
NORTH...FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES TRYING
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS
UPSTREAM ARE SURGING EAST NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME. PLUS...LAKE IS
PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AS
WELL. SO...OVERALL...IT IS GOING TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE SUN
AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE AROUND 40 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AREAS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH
FOR HIGHS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUD COVER TO MATCH EARLIER WX/POP
CHANGES FROM MONDAY NIGHT ON.
ORIGINAL...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE WILL HELP
KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA PERSISTENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
IOWA AND CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN UNDERNEATH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SEND AN OCCLUDED
FRONT EAST WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
ALL THAT COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A WINDOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD SET UP BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. PLUS...INSTABILITY BETWEEN LAKE
SURFACE AND 850 MB IS ONLY CONDITIONAL. SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION GOING AS WRAP AROUND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE HELPS TO
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE EXTENDING BACK WEST OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...CANT RULE OUT SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A WARM UP TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN...NON DIURNAL
TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR STARTS TO PUSH IN AROUND
15Z IN THE MORNING. I TREND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DOWNWARD THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF IS COLDER THAN THE GFS ON THURSDAY AT 850 MB. TEMPERATURES
AROUND -6 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. IF THERE IS ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND NW PA AND POSSIBLY GEAUGA
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT LOOKS AS IF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THEN
SLOWLY WARMING INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS BY SUNDAY MAY BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 50.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS IS PUSHED SOUTH THRU THIS EVENING THE MVFR CU AND STRATOCU
SHOULD DISSIPATE EVEN AS THE INVERSION REMAINS PRESENT. THIS SHOULD
LEAVE MAINLY JUST CIRRUS FOR TONIGHT AND MON MORNING WHICH WILL HELP
TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. NE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD
PREVAIL GRADUALLY VEERING TO EAST.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH TO NORTH MON NIGHT THEN
TEND TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT FOR THU.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER HIGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT DRIFTS OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. AS A LONGER FETCH DEVELOPS WAVES
WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET FROM AVON POINT TO RIPLEY.
WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...TK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
954 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND EXTEND A
RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MERGE WITH A LOW
OVER IOWA WHERE IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. THE LOW WILL FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
UPDATED CLOUDS FOR TODAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO START AND BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STRONG INVERSION THAT WOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED STRATUS DECK. THAT SAID THERE IS CLEARING TAKING
PLACE ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH ONLY A THIN LAYER OF HIGH
RH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY PUSH OF AIR BRINGING IN MORE DRYING SO AM THINKING
THERE WILL INCREASING BREAKS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
7AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS WEAKENING AND MOISTURE
IS PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH. THIS CAUSED THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO DISSIPATE RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH THE HRRR MODEL. NEXT ISSUE
REQUIRING SOME MODIFICATION IS THE CLOUDS. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMED INTO THE AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ALONG WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. SO ADJUSTED CLOUDS WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SWING BY TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A
DISTURBANCE TO CAUSE SOME UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES TO SHAKE OUT
SOME PRECIPITATION. FORT WAYNE REPORTED SOME LIGHT SNOW WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WAS IN SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. FURTHER
EAST...MARION REPORTED SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH SOME UNKNOWN
PRECIPITATION. IT IS UP IN THE AIR WHETHER THIS IS SNOW OR JUST
VERY SMALL PRECIPITATION THAT THE SENSOR CANT DISCERN WHAT THE
TYPE IS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ADDED A PRE
FIRST PERIOD WITH A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 6 AM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...TO THE
NORTH...FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES TRYING
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS
UPSTREAM ARE SURGING EAST NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME. PLUS...LAKE IS
PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AS
WELL. SO...OVERALL...IT IS GOING TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE SUN
AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE AROUND 40 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AREAS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH
FOR HIGHS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE NUMEROUS TIMING AND POP TYPE CHANGES FROM MONDAY
NIGHT ON.
ORIGINAL...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE WILL HELP
KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA PERSISTENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
IOWA AND CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN UNDERNEATH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SEND AN OCCLUDED
FRONT EAST WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
ALL THAT COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A WINDOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD SET UP BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. PLUS...INSTABILITY BETWEEN LAKE
SURFACE AND 850 MB IS ONLY CONDITIONAL. SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION GOING AS WRAP AROUND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE HELPS TO
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE EXTENDING BACK WEST OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...CANT RULE OUT SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A WARM UP TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN...NON DIURNAL
TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR STARTS TO PUSH IN AROUND
15Z IN THE MORNING. I TREND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DOWNWARD THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF IS COLDER THAN THE GFS ON THURSDAY AT 850 MB. TEMPERATURES
AROUND -6 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. IF THERE IS ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND NW PA AND POSSIBLY GEAUGA
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT LOOKS AS IF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THEN
SLOWLY WARMING INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS BY SUNDAY MAY BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 50.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
THESE WERE MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KMFD TO KCLE. THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR KMFD AND SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME IFR
CEILINGS. ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER WE ARE SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MAY SLOW THIS TRANSITION WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MIXING.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KNOTS
TODAY. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY BUT THEY WILL REMAIN
LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. NON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER HIGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT DRIFTS OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. AS A LONGER FETCH DEVELOPS WAVES
WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET FROM AVON POINT TO RIPLEY.
WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...TK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
927 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A DRYING
TREND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BETTER SUPPORT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE AND EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PREVALENT GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THIS AREA CLOUDY AS WELL.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME BREAKS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH. GENERALLY WENT ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR FAR NORTH. MEANWHILE...ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD
MAINLY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL HANG ON TO SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN TIER TO COVER THE LOWER END
THREAT.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT THOUGH...SO WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL THEN DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A BIT OF WARMUP FOR MONDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
WILL THEN LIKELY NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
EARLY HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 30S. ON WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...CAA AND WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL WORK INTO THE FA. ONCE AGAIN
THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE H5 LOW AND MORE DEVELOPED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND. ACTUALLY PREFER THIS SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE MORE SEASONAL ON
WEDNESDAY...RANDING IN THE 40S.
LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR FOR THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR HAS STARTED TO WORK INTO THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS THIS MORNING ALLOWING IFR CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR. ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LIGHT RAIN AND IFR CIGS REMAIN. RAP LOW
LEVEL RH FIELDS SHOW THIS DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY ALLOWING MOST SITES TO GO VFR BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD ALSO BE COMING TO AN END
EARLY THIS MORNING AS UPGLIDE TRANSITIONS TO DOWNGLIDE.
THIS EVENING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR QUICKLY
STARTING TO MAKE A RETURN FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO WASH OUT. THE NAM IS ALSO
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAVE DECIDED TO NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS
TIME (GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS). AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD HIGH
RES MODELS ARE THEN SPLIT ON WHETHER OR NOT RAIN WILL MOVE BACK
NORTH MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE IS A
GENERAL SPLIT BETWEEN HOLDING THE RAIN OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY AND
BRINGING AN INITIAL BAND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER SOLUTION.
OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
640 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND EXTEND A
RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MERGE WITH A LOW
OVER IOWA WHERE IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. THE LOW WILL FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS WEAKENING AND MOISTURE
IS PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH. THIS CAUSED THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO DISSIPATE RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH THE HRRR MODEL. NEXT ISSUE
REQUIRING SOME MODIFICATION IS THE CLOUDS. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMED INTO THE AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ALONG WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. SO ADJUSTED CLOUDS WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SWING BY TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A
DISTURBANCE TO CAUSE SOME UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES TO SHAKE OUT
SOME PRECIPITATION. FORT WAYNE REPORTED SOME LIGHT SNOW WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WAS IN SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. FURTHER
EAST...MARION REPORTED SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH SOME UNKNOWN
PRECIPITATION. IT IS UP IN THE AIR WHETHER THIS IS SNOW OR JUST
VERY SMALL PRECIPITATION THAT THE SENSOR CANT DISCERN WHAT THE
TYPE IS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ADDED A PRE
FIRST PERIOD WITH A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 6 AM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...TO THE
NORTH...FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES TRYING
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS
UPSTREAM ARE SURGING EAST NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME. PLUS...LAKE IS
PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AS
WELL. SO...OVERALL...IT IS GOING TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE SUN
AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE AROUND 40 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AREAS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH
FOR HIGHS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE WILL HELP
KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA PERSISTENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
IOWA AND CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN UNDERNEATH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SEND AN OCCLUDED
FRONT EAST WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
ALL THAT COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A WINDOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD SET UP BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. PLUS...INSTABILITY BETWEEN LAKE
SURFACE AND 850 MB IS ONLY CONDITIONAL. SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION GOING AS WRAP AROUND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE HELPS TO
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE EXTENDING BACK WEST OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...CANT RULE OUT SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A WARM UP TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN...NON DIURNAL
TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR STARTS TO PUSH IN AROUND
15Z IN THE MORNING. I TREND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DOWNWARD THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF IS COLDER THAN THE GFS ON THURSDAY AT 850 MB. TEMPERATURES
AROUND -6 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. IF THERE IS ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND NW PA AND POSSIBLY GEAUGA
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT LOOKS AS IF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THEN
SLOWLY WARMING INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS BY SUNDAY MAY BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 50.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
THESE WERE MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KMFD TO KCLE. THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR KMFD AND SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME IFR
CEILINGS. ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER WE ARE SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MAY SLOW THIS TRANSITION WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MIXING.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KNOTS
TODAY. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY BUT THEY WILL REMAIN
LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. NON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER HIGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT DRIFTS OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. AS A LONGER FETCH DEVELOPS WAVES
WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET FROM AVON POINT TO RIPLEY.
WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
557 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A DRYING
TREND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREAS OF RAIN HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN FILLING IN OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS FROM CENTRAL INDIANA UP INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THIS IS IN
ADDITION TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTING
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS MORNING. THIS
PCPN IS ASSOCIATED PRIMARILY WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALTHOUGH
IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME OF THE PCPN THAT HAS FILLED IN ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTH MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS.
AT ANY RATE...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PCPN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF ACROSS OUR
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR FAR NORTH. MEANWHILE...ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD
MAINLY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL HANG ON TO SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN TIER TO COVER THE LOWER END
THREAT.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT THOUGH...SO WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL THEN DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A BIT OF WARMUP FOR MONDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
WILL THEN LIKELY NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
EARLY HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 30S. ON WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...CAA AND WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL WORK INTO THE FA. ONCE AGAIN
THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE H5 LOW AND MORE DEVELOPED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND. ACTUALLY PREFER THIS SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE MORE SEASONAL ON
WEDNESDAY...RANDING IN THE 40S.
LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR FOR THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR HAS STARTED TO WORK INTO THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS THIS MORNING ALLOWING IFR CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR. ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LIGHT RAIN AND IFR CIGS REMAIN. RAP LOW
LEVEL RH FIELDS SHOW THIS DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY ALLOWING MOST SITES TO GO VFR BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD ALSO BE COMING TO AN END
EARLY THIS MORNING AS UPGLIDE TRANSITIONS TO DOWNGLIDE.
THIS EVENING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR QUICKLY
STARTING TO MAKE A RETURN FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO WASH OUT. THE NAM IS ALSO
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAVE DECIDED TO NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS
TIME (GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS). AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD HIGH
RES MODELS ARE THEN SPLIT ON WHETHER OR NOT RAIN WILL MOVE BACK
NORTH MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE IS A
GENERAL SPLIT BETWEEN HOLDING THE RAIN OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY AND
BRINGING AN INITIAL BAND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER SOLUTION.
OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1126 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patches of light rain are crossing the region at this time.
Rain is expected to increase in coverage after 09Z and remain
rather widespread through the day. The rain will begin to diminish
late today. Widespread IFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Patchy areas of light rain continue this evening...and all
reporting sites in the forecast area are now above 32 degrees.
Temps not expected to drop any further through the remainder of
the night as the slow modification of the shallow cold airmass
continues. Precip expanding across NW Texas in response to jet max
and expect this to continue expanding into eastern OK later
tonight. Have raised pops a little across NE OK as HRRR has
consistently developed rain across this area after 06z. Overall
changes to forecast aside from that will be minor.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Areas of rain will continue to moves across the region over the
next 24 hours with widespread IFR conditions. While the rain
has diminished in coverage this evening, an increase in coverage
is expected after 09z...especially in southern areas.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Very slow moderation of the shallow cold airmass in place across
the area will continue to occur over the next 36 to 48 hours. The
process will then hasten by Monday afternoon as winds shift to a
more westerly component. Will cancel the flash flood watch with
this issuance. While additional rainfall is expected over the next
24-36 hours, rainfall rates will not be sufficient to result in
flash flooding. An areal flood warning remains in effect where the
greatest additional rainfall amounts will occur. The northwest
corner of Osage County remains near the freezing line, and this
will likely remain the case for much of the night. There are some
indiciations that just like last night, temperatures may warm a
degree or so late tonight, which is the most likely time period
for measurable rain in that area. Thus, no mention of wintry
precipitation will be carried at this time.
Dry weather with seasonable temperatures will prevail most of next
week once this system clears the area. The next storm system will
bring a chance of rain back to the area just beyond the range of
this forecast.
The NAM12 temperatures were all within a degree of observed
readings during the past 24 hours, and will continue to use these
values for the forecast until the winds shift and help to scour
out the shallow cold air Monday.
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
355 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT LYING SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY AND
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. COOL
AIR WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL THEN SLIDE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK. A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL
RESULT FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL ALL WEEK LONG.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN OVER THE S/SE MOVING TO THE E. LOTS OF
CLOUDS AROUND AND THEY SHOULD HANG ALL DAY IN THE SOUTH. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS JUST A LITTLE BIT FROM THE NORTH OF WEST...SO THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIKELY NOT WAGGLE TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...CURRENT TRAJECTORIES OF THE PLUME OVER THE MIDWEST SEEM
TO BE DRAWING IT TOWARD THE STATE. THUS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY
AROUND ALL DAY IN THE SOUTH. DRY AIR WILL BE BROUGHT IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR
TODAY BUT THE LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE PRETTY
EXTENSIVE IN THE N AND UPSTREAM IN NY STATE. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME
LOW CLOUDS IN THE NRN TIER. MAXES WILL BE HELD DOWN AS THE SHALLOW
COLD AIR BLEEDS IN FROM THE NE AND THE CLOUDS HANG ON OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLEARING WILL TRY TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE 20S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. PERHAPS ONLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH WILL STAY ABOVE 30F. ON MONDAY...THE
925-850MB WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH/EAST. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE SC MTNS BEFORE SUNSET ON MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL
GET THICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT SPREADS N/W UPSLOPE. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE SOME DZ...AND THE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR IT TO FREEZE MON NIGHT IF SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR CAN
SEEP INTO THE SOUTH. MAXES MON WILL BE ONLY 40-45F. WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS...THE DIURNAL CHANGE FROM MON TO MON NIGHT WILL
BE LITTLE MORE THAN 5-8F.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND SLIDE TO THE EAST
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
RAIN AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIMING FAIRLY SIMILAR ON THE U.S. GUIDANCE MEMBERS THAT DRYING
SHOULD OCCUR FROM W-E BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
TAKES UP TO 24 MORE HOURS TO PUSH THAT MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS PA ON WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT BRISK WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CHANGING
OVER TO -SHSN/FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHWEST.
LAKE EFFECT -SNSH/FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHES IN THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS...AND THE ENSEMBLES DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THIS LENDS
ITSELF TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TIMING OF
THE PATTERN. HOWEVER A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD...BRINGING DRIER AND
FAIR WEATHER. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY TUMULTUOUS WEATHER TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE...MOST AREAS IFR.
EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
MAIN CHANGE TO 06Z TAFS WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE IMPROVEMENT
SOME.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
PA AND MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AT THE LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS. IN
GENERAL...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS FRONT STALLS
JUST SOUTH OF PA...BRINGING OCNL LGT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE.
MDL SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT IMPLY PREDOMINANTLY LIFR/IFR CIGS
ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY AT KJST TONIGHT. AT KBFD...A TOUGHER
CALL...AS GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE RISING
CIGS/CLEARING SKIES ANYTIME BTWN 06Z-12Z. ELSEWHERE...A
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD YIELD SOMEWHAT HIGHER /MVFR/
CIGS AT KUNV AND BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS AT KAOO. NORTHERLY FLOW
DRAWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA HAS ALREADY CAUSED CIGS
TO RISE AT KIPT LATE THIS EVENING AND EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO
PLAY OUT AT KMDT/KLNS WITH MVFR CIGS TRANSITIONING TO VFR LATE
TONIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS BUILD IN.
HOWEVER...MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS STUBBORN LOW CIGS MAY HOLD ON MOST
OF THE DAY AT KAOO/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...EVENING LOW CIGS POSS CENTRAL MTNS.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY.
WED...EARLY RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS EAST. PM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD.
THU...AM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1249 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOISTURE IS EVER SO SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD. BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
HAVE JUST SLID SOUTH OF KAOO IN THE PAST HOUR...WITH LIGHT FRONTAL
RAINBANDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. FROM I80 NORTHWARD...THE RAIN HAS ENDED...WITH AREAS
OF FOG AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE TO BE EXPECTED IN SPOTS. TEMPS
NEAR THE NY BORDER ARE ALREADY APPROACHING FREEZING.
TAPERING OF SHOWERS IS ON TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
PA. AS EXPECTED...SHOWERS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AS DRYING OCCURS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS ARE
FINALLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AFTER
HOLDING IN THE LOWER 50S MOST OF THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BRIGHTEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WORKS SOUTHWARD INTO PA. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHC OF LINGERING -SHRA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THRU LATE AM...THEN DRY WX ANTICIPATED FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY. ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS BTWN 0-4C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
FROM THE L40S OVR THE N MTNS...TO ARND 50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...STILL JUST A BIT ABV SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR/SEASONABLE WX EXPECTED SUN NITE/MONDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW AND
A WEAKENING RIDGE NEGATIVELY TILTED THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD
SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF IT AS RAIN. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
N MTNS. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE STORM CENTER MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS PA ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT BRISK WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO
-SHSN/FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHWEST. LAKE EFFECT
-SNSH/FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHES IN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND THE
ENSEMBLES DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THIS LENDS ITSELF TO MORE
UNCERTAINTY AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TIMING OF THE PATTERN.
HOWEVER A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD...BRINGING DRIER AND FAIR WEATHER.
THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY TUMULTUOUS WEATHER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE...MOST AREAS IFR.
EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
MAIN CHANGE TO 06Z TAFS WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE IMPROVEMENT
SOME.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
PA AND MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AT THE LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS. IN
GENERAL...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS FRONT STALLS
JUST SOUTH OF PA...BRINGING OCNL LGT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE.
MDL SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT IMPLY PREDOMINANTLY LIFR/IFR CIGS
ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY AT KJST TONIGHT. AT KBFD...A TOUGHER
CALL...AS GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE RISING
CIGS/CLEARING SKIES ANYTIME BTWN 06Z-12Z. ELSEWHERE...A
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD YIELD SOMEWHAT HIGHER /MVFR/
CIGS AT KUNV AND BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS AT KAOO. NORTHERLY FLOW
DRAWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA HAS ALREADY CAUSED CIGS
TO RISE AT KIPT LATE THIS EVENING AND EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO
PLAY OUT AT KMDT/KLNS WITH MVFR CIGS TRANSITIONING TO VFR LATE
TONIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS BUILD IN.
HOWEVER...MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS STUBBORN LOW CIGS MAY HOLD ON MOST
OF THE DAY AT KAOO/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...EVENING LOW CIGS POSS CENTRAL MTNS.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY.
WED...EARLY RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS EAST. PM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD.
THU...AM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1049 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
OF MIDDLE TN LATE THIS MORNING. STATIONARY SFC FRONT EXTENDED
FROM NORTHERN MS...THROUGH THE SFC LOW...NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR
NASHVILLE AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST KY. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE TRAILING FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF MIDDLE TN.
RAINS HAVE BEEN SCATTERED AND GENERALLY LIGHT THIS MORNING. ONE
MAIN AREA WAS BEING FOCUSED AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...IMPACTING MUCH
OF THE PLATEAU. THERE IS A SMALL BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF
RAIN...BUT MORE RAIN WAS ALREADY ADVANCING INTO WEST TN AT 16Z AND
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MID STATE BY MID AFTERNOON.
VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. LOWERED
MAX TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY A FEW DEGREES TO
BETTER ALIGN WITH CURRENT OBS AND ACCOUNT FOR THEM REMAINING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU 30/12Z PER ACTUAL VSBY AND CEILING FLUCTUATIONS.
PER LATEST HRRR MODEL...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COVERAGE APPROACHING 29/12Z
COULD TRANSITION TO A VCSH EVENT AFTER 29/15Z AS MODEL SHOWING SOME DRYING
POTENTIALLY OCCURING ACROSS THE MID STATE BEFORE YET ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE MOVES INTO MID STATE 29/20Z-30/12Z. WITH SOME QUESTION WHETHER
THIS WILL OCCUR OR NOT...WILL ADDRESS POSSIBLITY WITH VFR VSBYS/CAT LIGHT
SHWRS. OTHERWISE...AFTER 29/20Z...W TO E...A SLOW PROGRESSION FROM MAINLY
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMS
ACROSS REGION PRODUCING ADDITIONAL AT LEAST LIGHT SHWRS EXPECTED. LIGHT
SFC WINDS...AND DEPENDING ON WHAT SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT YOU ARE ON...LIGHT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 601 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/
(TODAY THRU TUESDAY)
SFC TROUGH INVERSION STRETCHES FROM SRN LOUISIANA NE ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TN NOW. AS WE GO
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE. THE
FEATURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A RATHER EXTENSIVE AND DEEPLY MOIST
AIR MASS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THAT THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON...AND THEN
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE WITH THE
NEAR 100 POPS FOR TODAY. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD AVG
AROUND 1 INCH OR SO.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...WE MAY SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN TERMS OF
SHOWER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. WE KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...BUT THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK TO OUR NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...IMPULSES UPSTREAM LOOK RATHER WEAK
AND THE MAIN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. POPS WILL STILL BE RATHER HIGH AND IN THE LIKELY
REALM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE JUST LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST
PART. THE MODELS...HOWEVER...DO ATTEMPT TO EMPHASIZE SOME PRE
FRONTAL FORCING. BUT...THIS LOOKS A BIT QUESTIONABLE.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE AN IMPACT.
THE FROPA LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR SOMETIME LATE MON NT OR TUES
MORNING. FORCING LOOKS RATHER STRONG THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL BE SURE TO INCLUDE SOME TSTMS POTENTIAL ALONG
WITH THE CATEGORICAL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES. OTW...FLOODING COULD
BECOME A PROBLEM AS ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS FOR MON NT INTO TUES
COULD APPROACH AN AREAL AVG OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. BUT...WITH THE TSTM
POSSIBILITY...HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT..PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN WHERE THE TSTM CHANCES WILL BE GREATER.
GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BY TUES COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH FFG VALUES. FOR NOW...NO
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED...BUT WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION.
AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH TUES...THE MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. DIURNAL
SWINGS WILL BE VERY LOW GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A MOISTURE RICH
AIR MASS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS FOR THE
MOST PART IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
(WED THRU SAT)
29/00Z GFS SOLUTION HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRIER EURO
SOLUTIONS AS OF LATE...THUS GOING OVERALL WITH A DRIER FORECAST
WED THRU SAT THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
ON WED. OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE ROCKIES THRU THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A
TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MID WORK WEEK
TO MORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
APPROACHES...AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WX PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOCLR
SKIES TO THE REGION THRU THIS PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
WED INTO THU...WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP FRI INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........49
LONG TERM..................01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
601 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(TODAY THRU TUESDAY)
SFC TROUGH INVERSION STRETCHES FROM SRN LOUISIANA NE ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TN NOW. AS WE GO
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE. THE
FEATURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A RATHER EXTENSIVE AND DEEPLY MOIST
AIR MASS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THAT THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON...AND THEN
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE WITH THE
NEAR 100 POPS FOR TODAY. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD AVG
AROUND 1 INCH OR SO.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...WE MAY SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN TERMS OF
SHOWER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. WE KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...BUT THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK TO OUR NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...IMPULSES UPSTREAM LOOK RATHER WEAK
AND THE MAIN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. POPS WILL STILL BE RATHER HIGH AND IN THE LIKELY
REALM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE JUST LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST
PART. THE MODELS...HOWEVER...DO ATTEMPT TO EMPHASIZE SOME PRE
FRONTAL FORCING. BUT...THIS LOOKS A BIT QUESTIONABLE.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE AN IMPACT.
THE FROPA LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR SOMETIME LATE MON NT OR TUES
MORNING. FORCING LOOKS RATHER STRONG THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL BE SURE TO INCLUDE SOME TSTMS POTENTIAL ALONG
WITH THE CATEGORICAL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES. OTW...FLOODING COULD
BECOME A PROBLEM AS ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS FOR MON NT INTO TUES
COULD APPROACH AN AREAL AVG OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. BUT...WITH THE TSTM
POSSIBILITY...HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT..PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN WHERE THE TSTM CHANCES WILL BE GREATER.
GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BY TUES COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH FFG VALUES. FOR NOW...NO
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED...BUT WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION.
AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH TUES...THE MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. DIURNAL
SWINGS WILL BE VERY LOW GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A MOISTURE RICH
AIR MASS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS FOR THE
MOST PART IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
(WED THRU SAT)
29/00Z GFS SOLUTION HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRIER EURO
SOLUTIONS AS OF LATE...THUS GOING OVERALL WITH A DRIER FORECAST
WED THRU SAT THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
ON WED. OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE ROCKIES THRU THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A
TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MID WORK WEEK
TO MORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
APPROACHES...AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WX PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOCLR
SKIES TO THE REGION THRU THIS PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
WED INTO THU...WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP FRI INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU 30/12Z PER ACTUAL VSBY AND CEILING FLUCTUATIONS.
PER LATEST HRRR MODEL...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COVERAGE APPROACHING 29/12Z
COULD TRANSITION TO A VCSH EVENT AFTER 29/15Z AS MODEL SHOWING SOME DRYING
POTENTIALLY OCCURING ACROSS THE MID STATE BEFORE YET ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE MOVES INTO MID STATE 29/20Z-30/12Z. WITH SOME QUESTION WHETHER
THIS WILL OCCUR OR NOT...WILL ADDRESS POSSIBLITY WITH VFR VSBYS/CAT LIGHT
SHWRS. OTHERWISE...AFTER 29/20Z...W TO E...A SLOW PROGRESSION FROM MAINLY
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMS
ACROSS REGION PRODUCING ADDITIONAL AT LEAST LIGHT SHWRS EXPECTED. LIGHT
SFC WINDS...AND DEPENDING ON WHAT SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT YOU ARE ON...LIGHT
N WINDS CKV/BNA TO SE CSV EXPECTED.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
333 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
(TODAY THRU TUESDAY)
SFC TROUGH INVERSION STRETCHES FROM SRN LOUISIANA NE ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TN NOW. AS WE GO
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE. THE
FEATURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A RATHER EXTENSIVE AND DEEPLY MOIST
AIRMASS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THAT THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON...AND THEN
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE WITH THE
NEAR 100 POPS FOR TODAY. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD AVG
AROUND 1 INCH OR SO.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...WE MAY SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN TERMS OF
SHOWER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. WE KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...BUT THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK TO OUR NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...IMPULSES UPSTREAM LOOK RATHER WEAK
AND THE MAIN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. POPS WILL STILL BE RATHER HIGH AND IN THE LIKELY
REALM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE JUST LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST
PART. THE MODELS...HOWEVER...DO ATTEMPT TO EMPHASIZE SOME PRE
FRONTAL FORCING. BUT...THIS LOOKS A BIT QUESTIONABLE.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE AN IMPACT.
THE FROPA LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR SOMETIME LATE MON NT OR TUES
MORNING. FORCING LOOKS RATHER STRONG THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL BE SURE TO INCLUDE SOME TSTMS POTENTIAL ALONG
WITH THE CATEGORICAL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES. OTW...FLOODING COULD
BECOME A PROBLEM AS ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS FOR MON NT INTO TUES
COULD APPROACH AN AREAL AVG OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. BUT...WITH THE TSTM
POSSIBILITY...HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT..PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN WHERE THE TSTM CHANCES WILL BE GREATER.
GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BY TUES COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH FFG VALUES. FOR NOW...NO
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED...BUT WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION.
AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH TUES...THE MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. DIURNAL
SWINGS WILL BE VERY LOW GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A MOISTURE RICH
AIRMASS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS FOR THE
MOST PART IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
(WED THRU SAT)
29/00Z GFS SOLUTION HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRIER EURO
SOLUTIONS AS OF LATE...THUS GOING OVERALL WITH A DRIER FORECAST
WED THRU SAT THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
ON WED. OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE ROCKIES THRU THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A
TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MID WORK WEEK
TO MORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
APPROACHES...AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WX PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOCLR
SKIES TO THE REGION THRU THIS PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
WED INTO THU...WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP FRI INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SLOW SOUTHWARD CRAWL OF OUR CURRENT COLD FRONT HAS THE FRONT
ALREADY THROUGH KCKV AND JUST NORTH OF KBNA AT ISSUANCE. ONCE THE
FRONT/WIND SHIFT GETS INTO THE TERMINAL REGION...CIGS WILL FALL
OFF TO IFR PRETTY QUICKLY...MAYBE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. KCSV
WILL TAKE QUITE AWHILE LONGER BEFORE THEY SEE ANY FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS. ONCE A TERMINAL FALLS TO IFR...DON`T EXPECT ANY
IMPROVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT EVEN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 60 51 63 55 59 / 100 90 60 100 60
CLARKSVILLE 55 49 60 51 58 / 100 70 60 100 40
CROSSVILLE 61 53 61 57 61 / 100 100 70 100 80
COLUMBIA 62 50 63 55 60 / 100 100 70 100 60
LAWRENCEBURG 63 52 64 57 60 / 100 100 70 100 70
WAVERLY 56 48 60 51 57 / 100 90 60 100 40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
258 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY AS THE COLD AND SOGGY
CONDITIONS SLOWLY ABATE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CLOSED
GYRE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THAT IS FEEDING WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER TEXAS. THIS WSW FLOW IS OVERTOP OF THE COOL AND
DENSE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS PROMOTING CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY
CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER DOWN
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS RISE ALONG THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES. THE
COLD CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHT WARMING
EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW-LVL CLOUDS DISPERSE. HOWEVER MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS LOOK TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND THIS WILL
HAMPER THE WARMTH. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE REST OF THE REGION DRY TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NO HAZARD HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS A SLIGHT
WARM UP TUESDAY OCCURS JUST BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY MID WEEK
THAT WILL BRING 30-50% RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
BY TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHILE A BACKSIDE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL AID IN PUSHING A
COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1.3" IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS WHERE A WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL SET-UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL LOWER AND THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG
AND EAST OF US 281. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
GIVEN LIMITED MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 150-200 J/KG AND LIMITED
MOISTURE. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING
AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY COLD AS HIGHS (WITH THE SUN OUT)
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE 60S AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER CLEAR AND SEASONAL
LATE FALL DAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...MOISTURE APPEARS TOO LIMITED WITH THIS COLD FRONT FOR MUCH
MORE THAN JUST SHOWERS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS ANY
ADDITIONAL MOISUTRE RETURN COULD ALLOW FOR DEEPER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 44 56 48 58 46 / 30 10 20 30 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 44 56 47 58 45 / 30 20 20 30 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 45 56 49 59 47 / 20 10 20 30 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 41 55 44 58 42 / 20 10 10 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 46 61 50 63 48 / 10 - 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 41 55 44 57 43 / 30 10 10 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 45 59 50 60 47 / 10 10 10 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 44 56 48 57 46 / 20 20 20 30 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 47 56 50 58 49 / 30 20 30 40 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 46 58 51 59 48 / 20 10 20 30 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 47 58 51 60 49 / 20 10 20 30 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1101 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE ARE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD AUS FROM THE SOUTH AND MAY IMPACT THE
AIRPORT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON VIS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AND TO LIFR AT AUS
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...BUT PINNING DOWN WHERE AND WHEN IS NOT POSSIBLE AT
THIS TIME. ANY SHOWERS WILL ONLY LOWER VIS TO MVFR. NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY EXCEPT AT DRT WHERE THEY SHOULD GO TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
UPDATE...
RADAR IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS THE REGION.
VERY LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
PRECIP WILL BE MORE OF DRIZZLE/MIST. IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING
ENHANCEMENT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS LIKELY AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IN THE JET. HRRR AND OTHER MESO MODELS ARE SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN RAIN ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT SO WILL KEEP THE HIGH POP
IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES FOR HIGHER QPF WILL BE OFF THE NW. AGAIN
HOWEVER THE QPF WILL BE SMALL. NEARLY STEADY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NO HAZARD HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE AIRMASS THAT ORIGINATED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT MOVED IN
YESTERDAY REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LOWEST
3500 FEET. TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO WARM DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS. THE NORTH WIND OF 10 TO 15
MPH IS ALSO MAKING IT FEEL LIKE THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE HILL
COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A UPTICK IN COVERAGE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL ACT AS AN INSULATOR THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING STEADY IF NOT SLIGHTLY RISING OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS FOR TOMORROW LIKELY NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE CLOUDY AND COOL SUNDAY AS WELL WITH
SOLID CHANCES OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS AS CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE COLDER SURFACE AIR ALONG ISENTROPIC SURFACES
AIDS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ENHANCED AREA OF ASCENT ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO THAT WILL
SHIFT OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION BUT SOME OF THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION BANDING THAT OCCURS COULD CLIP THE HILL
COUNTRY AND TOWARDS WILLIAMSON COUNTY. NEW RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE HEAVIEST WILL
LOCATED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE LLANO...BURNET...AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTY AREAS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NO MAJOR HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM AS A SLOW WARMING TREND
OCCURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSH LATE IN
THE WEEK.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG CUT-OFF CLOSED LOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THAT WILL AID IN WEAK SOUTH WINDS ATTEMPTING TO BRING BACK
MOISTURE AND A WARMER AIRMASS. THIS WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AND MOSTLY REMAIN NEAR THE TEXAS COAST TO JUST
BARELY INLAND BASED ON MULTI-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG THIS
WARM FRONTAL ZONE AS AN ENHANCED 300MB JET STREAK OF 120 KTS
REMAINS OVER NORTH TEXAS. CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS PWATS WILL BE LESS THAN 1.2" BUT
EASTERN/COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR 1.5" AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO
LIGHT TO MODERATE STREAMER SHOWER ACTIVITY.
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...STRONGER LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE FROM A SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MORE THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...DEWPOINT
RECOVERY LOOKS MEAGER AS THE LOW-LVL SOUTH FLOW IS TOO WEAK WITH
HIGHER PWATS AND INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND OFF THE TEXAS
COAST. HAVE OPTED TO ONLY HAVE SHOWERS IN FORECAST FOR NOW WITH NO
THUNDERSTORM MENTION GIVEN THE SET-UP. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SLOWLY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAIN COOL AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 42 46 45 60 47 / 70 60 30 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 42 46 44 59 47 / 70 60 40 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 44 46 46 60 49 / 60 50 30 20 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 39 43 42 58 44 / 70 80 20 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 44 57 47 63 48 / 70 40 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 39 44 42 58 44 / 70 80 40 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 44 50 46 62 50 / 60 40 20 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 42 45 45 58 49 / 60 50 30 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 45 49 47 59 50 / 60 50 40 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 44 49 47 62 51 / 60 50 20 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 46 49 47 62 52 / 60 40 20 20 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
944 AM PST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND SLOWLY START TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE WEATHER IN
WESTERN WASHINGTON. IN THE MEANTIME...A STAGNANT AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...WITH AREAS OF STUBBORN FOG LINGERING OVER
THE LOWLANDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY. ACTIVE AND SOMETIMES STORMY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED STARTING TUESDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER SE B.C. THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR LOCAL WEATHER. WARM AIR ALOFT IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...TRAPPING
THE AIR BENEATH WITH A STAGNANT LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. FOG COVERAGE
HAS BEEN EXPANDING EACH OF THE LAST 4 MORNINGS...AND THIS MORNING
IS NO EXCEPTION. DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING IN MOST PLACES FROM
OLYMPIA TO EVERETT...INCLUDING THE KITSAP PENINSULA AND HOOD CANAL
AREA. WITH SO LITTLE MIXING AND ANEMIC SOLAR INSOLATION...THE FOG
TODAY WILL BE PARTICULARLY STUBBORN. OVER THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND
REGION...THE 15Z HRRR DOES NOT SHOW VISIBILITY IMPROVING ABOVE 1
MILE UNTIL ABOUT 22Z...OR 2 PM.
FOG WILL RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE
IN SIMILAR LOCATIONS TO WHAT IS SEEN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
FOG SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT QUICKER TO DISSIPATE ON MONDAY...GIVEN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
THE DISSIPATION OF THE DAYS-OLD LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION.
WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A CHANGE TO S/SW FLOW ALOFT
ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO BRUSH
WRN WA ON MON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAK...WITH ONLY A FEW MEAGER
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED AS A DISSIPATING FRONT
MOVES INLAND. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST DROPS OF RAIN SHOULD REACH THE
COAST AROUND MID-DAY. IF ANY RAIN REACHES THE INTERIOR BEFORE
DISSIPATION...IT WOULD BE IN THE 4-8 PM TIME FRAME.
THOUGH TOMORROW`S WEATHER WILL LACK PANACHE...THE FRONT WILL PAVE
THE WAY FOR MORE ACTIVE SW FLOW ALOFT TO START AIMING TOWARD THE
PAC NW WITH STRONGER FRONTS TO COME. LOOKING LIKE A RESPECTABLE
WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS WRN WA ON TUE PM...ACCOMPANIED BY
HEAVIER RAIN AND WIND. AS WITH MANY WARM FRONTS...IT WILL BE
WINDIEST IN SOUTHEAST-WIND PRONE AREAS...SUCH AS THE COAST AND
NORTH INTERIOR. COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE A
WIND ADVISORY. HANER
.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS THINKING. A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL KEEP THIS
PERIOD QUITE ACTIVE. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS
ON WED...WITH SPEEDS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERION OVER THE
COAST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
DRY LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY. A VERY STRONG INVERSION IS IN
PLACE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON MAKING THE AIR MASS VERY STABLE.
A LARGE AREA OF FOG AND STRATUS IS PRODUCING MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION FROM AROUND OLYMPIA UP THROUGH S
WHIDBEY ISLAND. THERE IS PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA. DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION THE PUGET SOUND REGION FOG WILL BE
PERSISTENT AND PROBABLY NOT DISSIPATE UNTIL 21Z-22Z...AND EVEN THEN
THERE WILL BE AREAS IN THE CENTRAL SOUND THAT WILL NOT CLEAR TODAY.
KSEA...SEA-TAC IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BIG AREA OF FOG AND STRATUS
CENTERED OVER PUGET SOUND THIS MORNING. THAT INCREASES THE ODDS THAT
IT WILL CLEAR OUT...BUT THAT WILL NOT LIKELY HAPPEN UNTIL 21Z OR SO.
IT COULD TAKE A LITTLE LATER THAN THAT. VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN 1/4SM OR LESS UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
KAM
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND SHIFT
WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INLAND ON MONDAY AND DISSIPATE WITH BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR WATERS.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH VERY LITTLE
BREAK IN THE WINDS BETWEEN THE MONDAY FRONT AND TUESDAYS SYSTEM.
GALES ARE LIKELY ON THE COAST AND OVER THE N INTERIOR WATERS. GALES
COULD START ON THE COAST AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE
INTERIOR WATERS AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING.
THE GFS ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS AGREE THAT THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH GALES POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS LIKE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
EACH SYSTEM IS STILL LOW. KAM
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MINOR FLOODING ON THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER ON THU. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE SKOKOMISH BASIN DURING THE 36-HOUR PERIOD ENDING
4 PM PST THU. ELSEWHERE...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.HANER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET AREA-BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
EVERETT AND VICINITY-HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY
AREA-SAN JUAN COUNTY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-WESTERN STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR BELLEVUE AND
VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-HOOD CANAL AREA-SEATTLE AND
VICINITY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR
GALE WATCH COAST...EAST ENTRANCE...NORTH INLAND WATERS AND
ADMIRALTY INLET.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
529 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
PRIMARILY SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
POSITIVE UPR HEIGHT ANOMALY MIGRATING EWD ACRS CANADA WL KEEP THE
FLOW ACRS NOAM SPLIT THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD. A STG SRN STREAM
UPR LOW CROSSING THE RGN WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THAT SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY SIG PCPN PRODUCER AS
FOR THE MOST PART...THE FORECAST AREA WL REMAIN BETWEEN THE NRN
AND SRN STREAMS DURING THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WL PROBABLY END UP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD. THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WL KEEP COLD AIR BOTTLED UP
WAY N OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN ABV NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND PART OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. ELONGATED BUT FAIRLY WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...GENERALLY ABOVE 6KFT...IS PUSHING IN LIGHT SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI. A DECENT FEED OF
VERY DRY AIR AOB 850MB IS CAUSING THESE SHOWERS TO DRY UP AS THEY
REACH THE ROUTE 29 CORRIDOR. A MORE WIDESPREAD BAND OF
PRECIPITATION IS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MN AND
IOWA...BUT THINNING OUT OVER MISSOURI. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...PRECIP TIMING/TYPE/AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WITH ITS OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN TO
SOUTHEAST WI BY LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MOVING NORTHWARD WILL IMPACT MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI
AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY BAND OF RAIN. EXPECT THE DRY FEED OF LOW LEVEL
AIR TO WIN OUT GENERALLY NORTH OF A STRUGEON BAY TO TOMAHAWK LINE.
THEN THE PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIP WILL PUSH FROM SW TO NE LATE IN THE
EVENING TO OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A WARM TONGUE OF AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800MB WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST WITH THE BAND OF PRECIP. WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...ALL SORTS OF PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AS THE
MORE STEADY PRECIP ARRIVES. COLDER SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND N-C WI SUPPORT MAINLY A SNOW-SLEET
MIX...WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN WITHIN THE WARM WEDGE OF AIR. THE
SREF HAS LOW PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING
IN THESE AREAS...SO REMAINED CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS BY KEEPING THEM
STEADY NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT. BECAUSE PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY BE
CHANGING FREQUENTLY...THINK ANY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL REACH
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST THANKS TO A SOUTHEAST WIND COMING OFF THE LAKE.
TUESDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES. THE AIR LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO
SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE EXITING CENTRAL WI AS THIS
OCCURS...BUT N-C WISCONSIN COULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2
INCHES...BRINGING THE TOTAL TO AROUND 2-3 INCHES. THE MORNING
COMMUTE MAY BECOME RATHER SLOPPY...AND WILL ADDRESS THIS IMPACT WITH
AN SPS. AS THE PRECIP PULLS OUT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...A DRY SLOT WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD. THERE MAY BE SOME
DRIZZLE WITHIN THIS DRY SLOT...BUT KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STARTS TO INTRUDE INTO CENTRAL WI DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN PRECIP CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE
AGAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
REMNANTS OF UPR LOW WL SLOWLY EDGE EWD ACRS THE AREA TUE NGT AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO FALL AS
SNOW...THOUGH THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE ALL THAT MUCH PCPN LEFT.
PCPN MAY COME DOWN TO MESOSCALE BANDS OF SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH SML
DISTURBANCES ROTG ARND THE UPR SYSTEM. THOSE COULD AFFECT JUST
ABOUT ANY LOCATION IN THE FCST AREA. THERE IS PERHAPS A LITTLE
BETTER CHC OF SHSN ACRS E-C WI LATE TUE NGT INTO WED MORNING AS
BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM INDICATE THAT REGION GETTING CLIPPED BY AN
AREA OF QG FORCING LIFTG NEWD TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. RAISED POPS
SOME IN E-C WI TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...THOUGH DID NOT
WANT ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT SHSN IN THE FCST AT THIS POINT.
THE SPLIT UPR FLOW WL LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF QUIET WX
ONCE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. NO SIG CHGS TO THE EXTENDED FCST GRIDS
BASED ON A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE LATE THIS EVENING
OR EARLY OVERNIGHT WHEN THIS LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER. SHOULD SEE
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW.
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN...BUT PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. AS THE LOW ARRIVES...PRECIP SHOULD TURN
OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD IN THIS AREA AFTER ABOUT
10-12Z. SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY...POSSIBLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE. AFTER THE LOW PASSES...THINK WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP
ARRIVING BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CIGS/VSBYS SLOWING IMPROVING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
100 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN IN SOME AREAS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORING TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER...ALONG
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM...REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL PA HEADING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS OUR AREA. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THIS PRECIP WILL REACH OUR
CATSKILLS AREAS BY 4-5 AM...MID HUDSON VALLEY BY 6-7 AM...AND THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION BY 8-9 AM. WITH TEMPS STILL IN
THE 20S...HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY...AND NOT EXPECTED TO RISE TOO
MUCH OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THE PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE TEMPS CAN RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY OF
DUTCHESS/ULSTER COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S
ALREADY...AND MAY STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THIS EVENT.
ANY FZRA IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY...LEAVING ONLY A
TRACE OF ICE ACCRETION. AFTER UP TO AN HOUR OR TWO OF -FZRA...TEMPS
SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE MID 30S. STILL...SURFACES MAY BECOME
TEMPORARILY SLICK DUE TO THE LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE...AND THE FZRA
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY
/EXCEPT FOR EASTERN ULSTER AND WESTERN DUTCHESS COUNTIES/.
FURTHER NORTH TEMPS ARE EVEN COLDER RIGHT NOW...BUT PCPN NOT
EXPECTED THERE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING...SO IT MAY WARM UP
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE LATER START...A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CAN BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING FOR AREAS
TO THE NORTH IF NEEDED.
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. TEMPS
WILL ONLY WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY LATE IN THE
DAY...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT TO SOUTH WILL NEVER REACH OUR AREA. ENERGY FROM A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA WILL ALLOW A SECONDARY
NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LATE
TUESDAY.
THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COAST...OR
POSSIBLY A LITTLE INLAND. IN FACT... TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHANGE
VERY LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO TUESDAY...AVERAGING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FIRST LOW
PRESSURE...THEY DIFFER A JUST SLIGHT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN FRONT WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE...STALLING
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO FORM ALONG IT WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS THIRD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...
MOVING IT OFF TO OUR EAST (ALONG WITH THE FRONT) WEDNESDAY EVENING....WHILE
THE ECMWF MOVES IT BIT SLOWER...NOT CLEARING OUR REACHING UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING. EITHER WAY...AN THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM OVERNIGHT
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH THE STEADIER RAIN WILL
DEPART. AT THIS TIME...THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH SO THAT THESE SHOWERS
COULD TURN TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A SMALL
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY (PERHAPS AROUND 50
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY)...COOLING TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...STARTING WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL BE GRADUALLY OPENING UP AND WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT
STILL HAVE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. ANY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...WHERE GENERALLY A FEW
TENTHS TO A LITTLE OVER A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AND ONE LAST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WINDWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
AND START OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS THE
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE CONCERN IS FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION AT KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LIKELY NOT WARM TO ABOVE
FREEZING UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KALB AND BY NOON AT KGFL AND KPSF.
THE RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
06Z/WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM`S WARM APPROACHES WITH IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT BY AFTERNOON AT KPOU.
OUTLOOK...
WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEF RA.
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA/SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/SHSN.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. THE RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR RIVERS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
TODAY FOR NYZ038>040-047>054-059>061-066-082.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON
EST TODAY FOR NYZ058-063.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1156 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
Threat of measurable rainfall rapidly coming to an end across
central and southeast Illinois this evening as mid-level drying is
surging in from the west. However, lingering low-level
moisture/stratus keeps the threat of drizzle going for much of the
night. The cold front associated with the strong storm system
lifting into the Great Lakes will not arrive until Tuesday, so
southerly winds persisting through the night will keep
temperatures from falling too far overnight. Plan to adjust PoPs
for the rest of the night based on the latest trends, and only a
few other minor tweaks appear necessary at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
Initial batch of light rain has exited the forecast area early this
afternoon, however some patches of drizzle were persisting in the
low stratus. Next wave of light rain was crossing the Missouri
border near Quincy as of 2 pm, with some light rain/drizzle seen on
radar as far southwest as southwest Missouri. Have concentrated the
highest PoP`s into this evening across areas west of I-55 and
increased them somewhat.
Latest water vapor imagery showing large upper low centered over
Nebraska this afternoon. Dry slot is spreading northeast out of
Oklahoma and Kansas, and marks the back edge of the precipitation
shield along the cold front. A steady decrease in rain chances will
occur from west to east after midnight as this drier air arrives.
Latest RAP guidance suggests the cold front moving into areas near
the Illinois River in the 2-3 am time frame, reaching the Indiana
border toward 6 am. Until the front gets here, temperatures across
the forecast area likely to remain fairly steady this evening, and
most of the night across eastern Illinois.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
The slow moving upper low is forecast to be located over extreme
northwest Iowa Tuesday morning with a well defined dry slot pushing
into southwest Illinois. Most of the rain that occurs overnight
should be off to our east Tuesday morning with a decrease in cloud
cover from southwest to northeast during the morning. Soundings
continue to suggest gusty southwest winds during the day with
temperatures at or just above normal again, mostly in the 40s. The
upper low is then forecast to shift mostly east into southern
Wisconsin by Wednesday morning, which is a bit further south than
what we had been seeing, although the 12z ECMWF from yesterday was
hinting at this. The surface low will push across the lower Great
Lakes as well with a shortwave pivoting southeast into the area late
Tue. night into Wednesday morning which may bring some patchy light
snow or flurries to parts of the area.
With the further south position of the upper/surface lows, the wrap-
around moisture will drive further southeast into our forecast area
as well with some low chance POPs on Wednesday for flurries in the
morning, and sprinkles or flurries in the afternoon as the low level
cyclonic flow dominates into Wednesday night/early Thursday.
Temperatures will be colder as well during the day Wednesday with
afternoon readings in the upper 30s far north to the middle 40s
south, which is close to where they should be this time of year. A
rather quiet weather pattern will prevail through the remainder of
the extended forecast period as the deep upper low shifts away from
the Midwest with 500 mb heights building across the region. This
should result in a gradual moderating trend for the end of the week
with afternoon temperatures by Friday well into the 40s to low 50s.
No sign of any breakdown in the mild pattern for us into early next
week as the main longwave trof will be across the western part of
the country which should result in above normal temperatures for
much of our area through the weekend. A trof is expected to eject
east-northeast into the Southern Plains Sunday and into Missouri by
next Monday bringing a chance for rain to the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
Several more hours of IFR conditions likely across the central
Illinois terminals late tonight into early Tuesday. Then,
skies will rapidly clear as drying wraps around a storm system
lifting into the Great Lakes. Once the skies scatter out by
midday, VFR condtions will prevail for the rest of the period.
West to southwest winds will gust from 20-25 kts during much of
the daytime hours Tuesday.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
341 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
AT 3 AM CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR SIOUX FALLS
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. RELATIVELY MILD AIR REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. A W/SW BREEZE WAS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS.
PATCHY DRIZZLE PERSISTED IN FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
PATCHY DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK
FOR A GUSTY W/SW WIND...NEAR 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATED BY BUFR
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS AN IDEAL SET-UP FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THIS SCENARIO HAS SUPPORT FROM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NMM. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS NEAR I-80 MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW
OR RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES. SOME AREAS AFFECTED BY THE SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT PICK UP A LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SUDDEN BURSTS OF SNOW THAT REDUCE VISIBILITY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW INCREASES. AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE
MORNING AS LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/VORTICITY MAX TRACKS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ENHANCED
VORT. LOBE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER-LOW LEADING TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW SFC LOW OVER NE ILLINOIS WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY TRACK INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER-LOW WILL ADVECT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY AND LAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK PVA...AND CONVERGENCE ATTENDANT TO A SUBTLE
SFC PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MODELS ARE PAINTING
QPF OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO. SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE MID MORNING...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...SO
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE.
NAM/NMM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTN...COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES REDEVELOP. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
WITH AN EXTENSION INTO THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS AND
WAA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...850MB TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE BY
APPROXIMATELY 16 C. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON
THURSDAY THEN MID TO UPPER 40S BY FRIDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL
MAKE IT FEEL VERY NICE BY EARLY DECEMBER STANDARDS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MILD/ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS NEAR 552 DAM AND
850MB TEMPS NEAR 5 C. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
POTENTIAL SOUTHWEST U.S. SHORTWAVE MAY REACH THE MIDWEST BY MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THIS FAR OUT. UTTECH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 01/09Z AS A COOL FRONT PASSES. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO 20+ KTS WITH CEILINGS
RISING TO 1-3K AGL AND VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 6 MILES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1139 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS EVENING AND
ASSESS POTENTIAL HEADLINE UPDATES LATER THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT BEGINNING TO ARRIVE OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TO CENTRAL IA. SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
GOOD SIDE OF FREEZING AND SHOULD KEEP THAT TREND FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS DESPITE TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGINNING TO COOL. EVENTUALLY
WITH HAVE MIXED PHASES OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 32 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IA WITH SUB SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S THEN BOTH BEING COOLER OVER THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
MITIGATE ICY POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS WELL. EXPECT NEXT
HEADLINE UPDATE OUT BY 9 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
DRY SLOT CURRENTLY WORKING INTO IOWA WITH BROAD PRECIPITATION AREA
LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST IS RAIN AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. HOWEVER...STILL SOME MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW
IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WITH ONLY SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST. AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN FROM TWO TO FIVE INCHES IN FAR WEST CENTRAL TO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST. BOTH THE NAM AND THE HRRR INDICATE SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ON NORTHERN EDGE OF DRY SLOT THIS EVENING AND ANTICIPATE
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION PERSISTING MAINLY NORTH OF I80.
THEREAFTER...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS TROF AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE. MAY
BEGIN TO SEE SOME WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL EDGE INTO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN AS WELL THAT WITH SOME LACK OF SATURATION
ALOFT...FREEZING DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH. THIS STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE THREAT IN THE ZONES. AS FOR
HEADLINES...ADJUSTED AREAS AFTER MIDDAY AND WILL LEAVE CURRENT
ALIGNMENT IN PLACE FOR NOW UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF PCPN MOVES THRU.
LIKELY WILL SEE SOME CANCELLATION AND/OR DOWNGRADE OF MUCH OF THE
WARNING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF FINAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
CROSSING MISSOURI RIVER INTO WESTERN IOWA.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
BROAD UPPER LOW IMPACTING THE STATE...AND CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST SLOWLY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MOVING OVER IOWA TUESDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM WRAPPED UP WITH A CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD LIFT WITH THE LOW ALOFT...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE SO ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LIFT SO ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...WITH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS AND ALSO MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY SOME
LINGERING LIGHT FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITH LOW CLOUDS REMAINING IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE CLEARING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. H85 TEMPS
WARM ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL US ALOFT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE WITH H85 TEMP CLIMBING
TO AROUND +6C TO +8C OR HIGHER BY SATURDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL US BY MONDAY...WHICH
COULD INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY STAY TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
IOWA...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED IF IT DOES.
&&
.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA WHILE
SKIES STARTING TO SCT OVER SOUTHWEST IA. EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR AT
KDSM/KOTM AND POSSIBLY FARTHER NORTH. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AND IFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN OVER MAINLY NORTHERN IA BY TUE AFTERNOON.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR EMMET-KOSSUTH-
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WINNEBAGO.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR BREMER-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-WEBSTER-WORTH-
WRIGHT.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DONAVON
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1133 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW IN SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH AN 850MB
WARM FRONT RUNNING FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL IOWA. LARGE AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE RAN FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND OHIO
VALLEYS. RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS AN EXPANDING AREA OF
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN IOWA.
18Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW JUST SOUTH OF KOMA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RUNNING SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 30S AND HIGHER FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. RAP MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE THE RAIN SHOULD EXPAND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS INDICATES A LACK OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF MISSOURI. THUS THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT THE RAIN MAY START
ENDING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND END ACROSS
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
THERMAL PROFILES SHOW THE PRECIPITATION BEING ALL RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERMAL PROFILES START
COOLING AS THE FORCING EXITS THE AREA. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES
WILL THE RAIN END BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. BASED ON WHAT THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT SHOULD END UP BEING
ALL RAIN...OR...THERE MIGHT BE A VERY BRIEF MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION ENDING.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.
ON TUESDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE WRAP AROUND CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. AS COLDER
AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA...FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND MID DAY IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA AND SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A TRACE TO DUSTING AT BEST AND SHOULD ONLY OCCUR
ON ELEVATED SURFACES OR GRASS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
NIGHT. AFTER THIS PERIOD...RIDGING MOVES IN AND A WARMING TREND
TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
H5 CLOSED LOW SLOWLY ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH OCCLUDED
SFC LOW WILL LEAD TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. H5 CVA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE
FORCING...IT APPEARS THAT WHILE THE TEMP PROFILE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...THERE IS A LACK OF LOW LEVEL RISING MOTION
AND PRODUCTION OF SNOW. THE BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...WENT WITH LOW CHC SN- ACROSS THIS
AREA WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND OCCURS. HIRES 4KM NAM SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...THIS SUPPORTS THE GFS AND
LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING.
REST OF THE EXTENDED...
H5 RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL LEAD TO QUIET
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A WARMING PATTERN
WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AVERAGE AND THEN ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW AND THE SUBSEQUENT WARMING OF TEMPS. AFTER
THIS...ANOTHER H5 TROF APPROACHES THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT IS TOO SOON WITH THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO DETERMINE IF PRECIP AT NIGHT WILL BE FROZEN
OR LIQUID.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 01/09Z AS A COOL FRONT PASSES. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO 20+ KTS WITH CEILINGS
RISING TO 1-3K AGL AND VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 6 MILES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
348 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTER PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
PATTERN OF RAIN SHOWERS EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER ENSURING AN ALL RAIN EVENT. A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL LAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SURFACE
FRONT SWEEPS THE MOISTURE EASTWARD. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SPREAD OVER SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THE
BROAD EXPANSE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE
SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A TEXTBOOK OCCLUSION THAT WILL HAVE A TRIPLE
POINT SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER DURING THE MORNING UNDER
DEEP DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE
OCCLUSION WILL FORCE THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN LEADING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY BY ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST BOOST OF DEFORMATION THAT MAY
RESULT IN A LOCALIZED INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS...MODEL QPF IS ON THE LOW SIDE WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MUTED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND NAM 4KM.
THIS CAN BE EXPLAINED BY THE SHALLOW AND WEAK LAYER OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS THAT RESULTS FROM THE
OTHERWISE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WITHIN THE FAR NE FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. RADAR TRENDS LEADING UP TO PRESS
TIME SUPPORT A BROKEN PATTERN OF LIGHTER SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE
MOISTURE AXIS ROTATES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY RATHER THAN
A SOLID BAND WITH GREATER INTENSITY SUCH AS THAT OBSERVED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AS THE
DRY SLOT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA DURING EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE DUE TO LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITHIN THE OCCLUDED
FRONT WHICH WILL BE CARRIED EASTWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON. A LOCALIZED
BUT PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN HELP DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS
AND PRODUCE A DECREASING CLOUD TREND DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL COUNTER RADIATIONAL COOLING TENDENCY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR LOWS AROUND 30 BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ATTENTION IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STILL
SLOWLY DRIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW
THIS MATURE AND OCCLUDED SYSTEM BEGINNING TO EXIT THE PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IT WILL HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AND WILL
BEGIN FILLING BACK IN AS IT TRACKS FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI TO LAKE
ERIE...THEN NE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER ON THURSDAY. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND DIVING INTO THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE A WEAK SFC LOW. SO
INSTEAD OF DEALING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DEFORMATION ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT LOOKED 24 HOURS AGO...IT NOW APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM A WEAK ELEVATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THE
MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND DEFORMATION. THE SURGE OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL HAVE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO WORK THROUGH...RESIDUAL FROM
THE DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY...SO MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. NEXT QUESTION IS PTYPE. WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION
THE WARMER AIR WILL LINGER LONGER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW.
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY.
AT SOME POINT IN THE EVENING WE MAY START SEEING SNOW MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN AS THE COLUMN COOLS TO BELOW 0C DOWN TO ABOUT A THOUSAND
FEET. FURTHER BL COOLING WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIP CEASES. ONE THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE
ANY LAKE EFFECT CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE MI BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO
AN END. COULD GET A MESOSCALE BAND TO SET UP SOUTH OF M59 WHICH
COULD INCREASE RATES AND ACCUMULATIONS OVER THAT AREA. NOT THE
STRONGEST LAKE EFFECT SIGNAL BUT STILL THERE NONE THE LESS. IT
WILL ALSO BE A SHORT DURATION EVENT IF IT OCCURS AS RIDGING AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT IS QUICK TO WORK IN BY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE
POSSIBLE SNOW DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPACTFUL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY
WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 SO NOT EXPECTING A RAPID FREEZE OF LINGERING
PUDDLES ON ROADWAYS.
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REALIGN WITH A DOMINATE WEST
COAST TROUGH AND VERY AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONTINENTAL RIDGE WITH THE
POLAR JET LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN
WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES KEEPING TEMPS A BIT MILDER IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER. AN ELEVATED COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT SHOULD
REMAIN DISCONNECTED FROM THE SFC BY THE DOMINATE RIDGE. PRETTY QUIET
WEATHER WISE FOR THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL WORK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO FLUCTUATE AS
FRONTS AND THE LOWS THEMSELVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY WE
HAVE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FIRST LOW. THE WINDS WILL REACH BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WHICH
WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE SHORE OF THE NORTHERN THUMB TODAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MARGINAL SETUP AS WAVES
NEAR CRITERIA LEVEL. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE HURON
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A
SECONDARY SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK
AS THIS LOW TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1152 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015
MVFR CIGS WILL BE WORKING INTO SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH -SHRAS TRAILING THIS LEADING EDGE OF STRATUS BY 2
OR 3 HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THRU
MIDDAY TUESDAY BEFORE DRIER SW FLOW BRINGS CIGS BACK TO MVFR WITH
SKIES THEN SCATTERING OUT LATE IN THE FORECAST.
FOR DTW...
MVFR CIGS WILL TREND TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS -SHRAS EXPAND FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST AND REACH TERMINAL BY 09Z OR SO. ON/OFF -SHRAS WILL
THEN PERSIST UNTIL FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS AREA BY AROUND 16Z WITH
SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOMING SCATTERED IN DRYING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY...LOWER THEREAFTER.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
353 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS POSITIONED IN
SOUTHWEST MN NEAR MARHASLL. THE DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM WAS BACK ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EXTENDING TOWARD
NORTHWESTER MN. THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH THE WINTER STORM
HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
FROM MARSHALL...THROUGH ST. CLOUD TOWARD DULUTH...THE BAND WILL
EVENTUALLY SWING EAST PEODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR 1-2" ACCUMULATIONS FROM THAT BAND WILL BE IN THE GREATER
ALEXANDRIA AREA. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ON
AND OFF DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY AS THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES
WORKING IN AND SHUTS OFF AND ABILITY FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.
TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN CONSISTENT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
FREEZING ISSUES TODAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN WEST CENTRAL MN.
AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MN...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE MARGINAL IN THE 10-
20MPH RANGE ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW BAND IN THE
ADVISORY AREA MAY PRODUCE INTERMITTENT MODERATE SNOW RATES AND WITH
THE MAGINAL WIND COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND
THAT BAND WORK ACROSS EASTERN MN AS IT WEAKEND TONIGHT. MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON
WEDNESDAY... THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MILD AND DRY. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHIFTING THE JET STREAM NORTH...
AND KEEPING WHAT COLD AIR THERE IS TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. WITH FLOW MAINLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD... MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR AREA IS MINIMAL
WITH THINGS BEING SCOURED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WEST.
AS A RESULT... NO PCPN IS MENTIONED AFTER WEDNESDAY. A QUICK LOOK
AT THE CFS SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST THE THIRD WEEK OF THE MONTH... WITH EVEN THE COOLEST
MEMBERS OF THE CFS ENSEMBLE ONLY MANAGING TO COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW MOVING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN MN EXTENIND
JUST IN TO WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS BAND WILL WORK THROUGH OVER THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND THE CONCERN AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH BECOMES
THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE. IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE HRRR IS INDICATING THAT THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT THAT WILL PUSH IN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING COULD SCOUR
SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOW CEILINGS TO LIFT OR
TEMPORARILY SCATTER. INDICATED SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THAT TIME FOR
SOME OF THE SITES...AND WILL MONITOR UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AS THE
DRY SLOT APPROACHES.
KMSP...THIS SECOND BAND OF SNOW SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY DONE BY 8-9Z
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGE
FROM THE MAIN DISCUSSION.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW AROUND 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ041>045-047>050-054>057-064.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1210 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON ITS WAY TO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS STILL SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY OFF
OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY...ALLOWING
FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND BROAD SCALE LIFT. A
FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF MOD/HVY SNOW THIS MORNING PRODUCED 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR ALL THE WAY FROM THE
MN/IA BORDER TO ST PAUL. AFTER A LULL...THE FIRST MAIN SLUG OF
MOISTURE PRESSED NWD FROM IA INTO MN AND IS CURRENTLY IN A LARGE
SWATH OVER THE WFO MPX CWFA ALONG AND S OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. HAVE
SEEN REPORTS OF VSBY DOWN TO 1/4SM-1/2SM IN SWRN MN WITH SITES
CLOSER TO I-35 IN THE 1SM-2SM RANGE ONCE THE SNOW COMMENCED. IN
SOME SPOTS...THE PRECIP CAME AS A MIXTURE OF -DZ/-IP AT THE START
BUT ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND HEAVIER RATES TOOK HOLD...THE
PRECIP CHANGED OVER TO -SN AND THAT IS HOW THE REST OF THE EVENT
LOOKS TO UNFOLD. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST
SWATH OF MOISTURE SHIFTING AWAY FROM SWRN MN AND ESSENTIALLY
LINING UP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THRU CENTRAL AND W-CENTRAL MN.
THIS BATCH DOES CONTAIN SOME HEAVIER BOUTS OF -SN... AND THIS WILL
LAST THRU LATE EVENING. THEN THERE LOOKS TO BE A SEVERAL-HOUR-LONG
BREAK IN THE PRECIP PER NMM/ARW/HRRR/HOPWRF PROGS AND HAVE TRIED
DEPICT AS SUCH IN THE GRIDS BY DROPPING POPS TO THE CHC RANGE FOR
CENTRAL- ERN PARTS OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG. THE NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE GATHERING IMPETUS OVER ERN
NEBRASKA/WRN IOWA AND THIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE AREA DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HRS...MAKING FOR ANOTHER DIFFICULT COMMUTE TUE MRNG.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
QPF OVERNIGHT THRU TUE IS STILL IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH RANGE. SNOW
RATIOS WILL CLIMB SLOWLY TONIGHT INTO TMRW... CLOSER TO 12 OR 13
TO 1...MAKING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TNGT THRU TMRW VERY LIKELY. THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL STILL BE FOCUSED IN SWRN MN...BUT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES IN WRN WI TO 5-9
INCHES IN WRN MN...AND THESE AMOUNTS ARE THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE EVENT. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT HEADLINES
ALONE AS THEY ARE DELINEATED. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURG THE
DAY TMRW...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF DRIER BLYR AIR BEING
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A P-TYPE CHANGE TO
-FZRA/-FZDZ AT TIMES TMRW EVE AND TMRW NGT BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LARGELY COME TO AN END BY DAYBREAK WED
MRNG. THE CONCERNS ARE STILL THERE THAT THIS WILL BE A HEAVY WET
SNOW...MAKING FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND DIFFICULT SNOW
REMOVAL. OWING TO THOSE CONCERNS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH FROM TDA INTO TNGT AND THRU TMRW. HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S WILL ONLY DROP TO THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S TNGT
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 30S ON TUE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN OUR
EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
ON WEDNESDAY IN OUR WESTERN AREAS...AS FRESH SNOW COVER FROM THE
STORM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN EXPECTED. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
SLIGHTLY MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. A WEAK FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW MOVING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN MN EXTENIND
JUST IN TO WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS BAND WILL WORK THROUGH OVER THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND THE CONCERN AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH BECOMES
THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE. IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE HRRR IS INDICATING THAT THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT THAT WILL PUSH IN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING COULD SCOUR
SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOW CEILINGS TO LIFT OR
TEMPORARILY SCATTER. INDICATED SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THAT TIME FOR
SOME OF THE SITES...AND WILL MONITOR UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AS THE
DRY SLOT APPROACHES.
KMSP...THIS SECOND BAND OF SNOW SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY DONE BY 8-9Z
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGE
FROM THE MAIN DISCUSSION.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW AROUND 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
WIZ014>016-023>028.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ047-
048-054>058-064>067-073>077-082>085-091>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
MNZ041>045-049>053-059>063-068>070-078.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...ADL
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
335 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER SIOUX FALLS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UP THE EAST COAST. RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
MODELS HAVE EXPANDED THE WRAP AROUND FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER
SIOUX FALLS THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN BETWEEN
NOW AND 12Z. SYSTEM FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
ON THE NATIONAL RADAR MAP. STRONGER WINDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
MAY MOVE SOME SNOW AROUND BUT DON`T BELIEVE THAT IT WILL CAUSE
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. 7 INCH SNOWFALL REPORTS ALONG THE LINE
THAT EXTENDED FROM GRANT TO MULLEN TO VALENTINE YESTERDAY
MORNING. SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA BUT A HOLE NOW DEVELOPING FROM PINE RIDGE TO VALENTINE.
HAVE KEPT LIGHT SNOW GOING AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH
THE DAY. NOT SURE ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH. WILL LET
THE ADVISORY GO FOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 AM CST AND CONTINUE WITH
THE WESTERLY ONE THROUGH NOON. POPS MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND OVER NIGHT. HAVE PRECIP
ENDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AROUND ONEILL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
TUESDAY. HIGHS TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 MOST
AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING OVER THE SOUTH AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED AT LEAST A CATEGORY BASED ON
LOCAL STUDY. HAVE PUSHED THE ENVELOPE WITH NEIGHBORS THIS MORNING
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. FRESH SNOW WITH CLEARING SKIES GOOD FOR 7
TO 10F BELOW GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WEDNESDAY A TROUGH WILL COME ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW WHILE THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THIS FAVORS RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE EFFECTS
OF THE SNOW PACK...ESPECIALLY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
PLAINS AND WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...NO HELP TO MIX WARM
AIR ALOFT TO THE GROUND. HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. EXPECTING MOST OF THE
AREA TO STILL SEE SNOW ON THE GROUND FOR THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UNDER CUT GUIDANCE AND PUSH HIGHS TO AROUND 40 TO THE
MID 40S. BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE SNOW FREE AREAS...AND THE
RANGE FOR TEMPERATURES COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES. ONCE THE FINAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE IN WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA FOR WHERE HIGHS
WILL BE WARMEST.
BY THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY TO THE 4
CORNERS...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
STILL SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE EC IS FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS SOME QPF TO THE NEB/KS
BORDER...HOWEVER GFS IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE KEEPS POPS ON THE LOW SIDE SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY. WITH
THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD...TEMPS TO TREND TO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
MVFR/LOCAL LIFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA
HIGHWAY 2 TUESDAY AFTN AS SHOWN BY THE RAP AND NAM MODELS.
MVFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS MAY CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
281 TUESDAY EVENING. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR NEZ005>010-023>029-035>038-059.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED REMAINING PARTS OF WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.
ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT THESE AREAS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW HAS FALLEN OFF MARKEDLY WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO REMAIN WELL UNDER AN INCH. PLUS THERE
IS REALLY NOT MUCH WIND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND...AND TEMPERATURES
ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING MAKING FOR A WET SNOW THAT IS HARD TO BLOW
AROUND ANYWAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
HAVE ALLOWED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM...AND
MAINTAINED WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE
TO CANCEL THAT ONE EARLY IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE. APPEARS
LAST GASP OF POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS ROTATING THROUGH
THE AREA AT EARLY EVENING...WHICH CONFIRMS THE CONSENSUS OF
SHORT-TERM HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES IN OUR NRN COUNTIES WILL BE THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM.
500 MB CHART FROM 12Z SHOWED MAIN LOW BACK OVER WY WITH HEIGHT FALLS
ESTIMATED AT UP TO 130 METERS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS CENTERED OVER
THE SERN CO/SWRN KS BORDER AREA. IT WAS JUST A BIT LESS AT KDDC
(120 METERS). VORT MAX WAS OVER NERN CO AT THAT TIME...BUT WATER
VAPOR STLT IMAGERY AND RECENT RUC MODEL INITILIZATIONS SHOW MAIN
LOW NOW IN WRN NE. STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE
LOW. MAIN BAND OF PCPN MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING ABOUT AS
EXPECTED...AND THE PCPN TYPE WAS A MIX. NEXT LOBE OF ENERGY HAD
ROTATED INTO ERN NE FROM THE WEST AND THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WRAP
UP TOWARD SERN SD.
WE HAD SEEN SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES NORTH OF KOFK AS EARLY
AFTN. SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS PSBL...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM NELIGH TO FREMONT AND RED OAK.
WILL TRIM HEADLINES TO THE S...BUT KEEP HEADLINES GOING N WHERE PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. NEW AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NOT
OVERLY HIGH IN OUR NORTH...BUT A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. CLOSED
LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EWD/NEWD...REACHING SWRN MN BY 12 TUE AND
THEN SHOULD BE OVER WI BY 12Z WED. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW EVEN INTO
TUE NIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THAT CLOSED LOW TRACKS
NEWD AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY 40S
SOUTH AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH. PCPN CHANCES STILL SEEM TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER NM BY
SAT...THEN THAT MOVES OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUN/MON. GENLY
FAVORED THE ECMWF MORE THAN THE GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
RATHER COMPLEX FCST IN PART TO LARGE SYSTEM PREVAILING OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS. LATEST OBS INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER ERN NEB
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
GIVEN TRACK OF UPPER LOW...EXPECT VFR/MVFR MIX TO CONTINUE AT
KOMA/KLNK THRU ABOUT LATE MORNING BEFORE RE APPEARANCE OF MVFR
CIGS ON BACKSIDE OF PIVOTING UPPER LOW SOMETIME DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND PREVAILING THE DURATION OF THE FCST PD. FOR
KOFK...NO IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ANTICIPATED THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1122 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
DRY AIR IS SHUTTING DOWN THE SNOW SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2. THE
NEW FORECAST REDUCES SNOW CHANCES IN THIS AREA AND REMOVES KEITH
AND PERKINS COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST. THE LOW
SHOULD BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...AS WEAK LIFT WILL
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE ADDED SHERIDAN COUNTY TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AS MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW /TROWAL/
FAVORS SNOW IN THE UPSLOPE AREA OF THE PINE RIDGE IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON
FOR WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TROWAL PERSISTING IN
THAT AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL
1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT LOCALLY 4 INCHES OR SO IN
NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY.
ON TUESDAY THE WEAKENING TROWAL SHIFTS EAST OVER BOYD AND HOLT
COUNTY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS WHERE ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
AS THE CYCLONE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE
SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL DIMINISH AND END BY EARLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE MID RANGE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE NAM AND GFS MAY BE A LITTLE
TOO HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND AN UPPER TROUGH/
LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS ABOUT 200NM DIFFERENCE IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND TAKES THE CENTER OF THE LOW
THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE
EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE INVERTED
TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. BLENDING THE LONG RANGE MODELS
ACTUALLY KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT.
FOR THE TIME BEING...THEN...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
MVFR/LOCAL LIFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY
2 TUESDAY AFTN AS SHOWN BY THE RAP AND NAM MODELS.
MVFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS MAY CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
281 TUESDAY EVENING. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ004-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ005>010-023>029-035>038-059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
313 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
SNOW AMOUNTS AND TIMING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WRAP
AROUND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SD AND
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SNOW BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AND ANOTHER
JUST ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE
A DECENT HANDLE ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON AND THEY BOTH HAVE THE
SNOW BANDS MOVING ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH AND THEN DECREASING IN
INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING
FOR THE SNOW BANDS...AND BUMPED UP AMOUNTS A BIT OVER THE
COOPERSTOWN TO MAYVILLE TO FOSSTON AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OVERALL...MOST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
BOTH THE HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SNOW
BAND SETTING UP LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THIS
SEEMS TO BE FROM SOME 700MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT GETS GOING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
MODELS ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON KEEPING SOME SNOWFALL GOING
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE QPF MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME GOOD LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE
-15 C ZONE OVER THE PARK RAPIDS AREA. THINK THAT ANOTHER 2 TO 3
INCHES ON TOP OF WHAT ALREADY FELL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
THUS...EXTENDED THE ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SFC LOW. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS CUT OFF SYSTEM.
STILL...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH 20S IN THE EAST
WITH CLOUDS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST SNOW ENDS UP BUT FOR NOW KEPT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
QUIET AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
FLUCTUATING VSBY. CIGS WILL ALSO FLUCTUATE...BUT WILL BE MOSTLY
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR AND VFR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ024-
026>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ001>003-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/WJB
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
114 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
INITIAL SURGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES UNDERNEATH A
TROWAL WRAPPING WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW FOLLOWS A LINE FROM WELLS
COUNTY THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MANDAN INTO HETTINGER. LULL IN
PRECIPITATION OVER MY SOUTHEAST AT THE MOMENT.
NEXT SURGE OF PRECIPITATION ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY
OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
GFS20/HRRR/RAP BRING THIS AREA OF SNOW WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 09Z THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY.
AFTERWORDS FORCING RAPIDLY WINDS DOWN AND WILL SEE SNOW ENDING
RATHER QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL ALSO FOLLOW
THIS TREND.
ALL AND ALL FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
THINKING AND WILL MAINTAIN HEADLINES AS IS WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL
MAY ADD SHERIDAN COUNTY DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS NEXT SURGE OF
SNOW TRACKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
BASED ON RECENT HRRR/RAP RUN-TOTAL LIQUID-EQUIVALENT FORECASTS OF
0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES IN WELLS AND FOSTER COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW BEING REPORTED UPSTREAM OVER
EASTERN ND...WE ADDED WELLS AND FOSTER COUNTIES TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
OTHERWISE...THE GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK...THOUGH RADAR
TRENDS THROUGH 0330 UTC SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW IS GOING TO SPREAD JUST
A BIT FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THAN EARLIER FORECAST. WE THUS CHOSE
TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT A BIT FROM DICKINSON TOWARD MINOT. MOST
SNOWFALL REPORTS THUS FAR THIS EVENING ARE IN LINE WITH THE GOING
FORECAST AND RANGE FROM 3 INCHES IN ELLENDALE TO 0.8 INCHES AT THE
NWS OFFICE IN BISMARCK AS OF 0330 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NECESSARY WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE
CYCLE. SNOW IS SPREADING WEST AND NORTHWEST AND IS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE FROM COOPERSTOWN TO VALLEY CITY...ASHLEY AND MOBRIDGE AT 00
UTC. WE DID INCREASE POPS INTO THE 100 PERCENT RANGE THIS EVENING
IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE IT IS DEFINITELY SNOWING
AND WE ALSO SPREAD 20 TO 30 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES A BIT FURTHER TO
THE NORTH /INTO THE RUGBY AREA/ BASED ON TIME-LAGGED HRRR OUTPUT.
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES OR FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN IOWA WITH HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO PASS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BROAD AREA OF SNOW HAS
NOW SPREAD OVER CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SOME
INITIAL POCKETS OF SNOW PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL
SHIFT TO AN EAST/NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AND PASS OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WITH BROAD COVERAGE DEVELOPING
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH GOING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. STILL A LITTLE QUESTION IF SNOW MAY LIFT A BIT
FURTHER NORTH AS LATEST GUIDANCE PLACES A WEAK TROWAL WORKING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE SNOWFALL
DEVELOPS OVER THIS EVENING TO SEE IF THIS ACTUALLY COULD BECOME A
CONCERN. OVER THE NORTHWEST...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING. GIVEN THAT THIS AREA HAD FOG
DEVELOP THIS MORNING HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY...SNOW WILL START TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST MAINLY ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER. HAD SOME
CONCERN WITH INCREASING WINDS OVER EASTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA GIVEN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING...SO HAVE KEPT WINDS ON
THE TAMER SIDE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
BY TUESDAY EVENING THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE BORDER OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ANTICIPATED SNOW TO EXTEND TO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY EVENING FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE
CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. A WARM NORTHWEST TO WEST H850
FLOW SHOULD BRING A CHINOOK FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES...BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY 30-40...TO 35-
45 BY FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE ROCKIES. THE
NORTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE TROUGH (IN CANADA) PREDOMINATES AND A
STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CANADA...KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CONTINUED MILD
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 45 AND LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL ND /INCLUDING AT THE KBIS AND KJMS TERMINALS/ TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO LIKELY IMPACT KDIK. LOW
CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL ND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THAT STRATUS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 16 UTC TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ047-
048-050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ023-025-034>037-042-045-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
433 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
LAG SIGNIFICANTLY AND CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SECOND SURGE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OFF TO OUR
EAST. THIS PRECIP APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING
JET JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BEING REPORTED IN THE CELLS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
LOOKING AT BOUNDARY LAYER LI FROM THE NAM THERE ARE NEGATIVE
VALUES. NORTH OF THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION THERE IS SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG. GIVEN HOW PATCHY THE FOG HAS BEEN HAVE ELECTED TO STICK
WITH AN SPS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TO SEE IF A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.
THIS SECONDARY BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL THEN HEAD OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE INDIANA/ OHIO STATE
LINE AROUND 10 AM. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL START TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
(SUCH AS SCIOTO). THIS MAKES SENSE AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGS BACK. TEMPORARY
CLEARING WILL ALSO COMMENCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL ALSO STILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES AT
GLACIAL SPEED. HAVE HUNG ON TO POPS A BIT LONGER ACROSS THESE
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FRONT
SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE CWA BRINGING IN DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA (PWATS AROUND 0.35"). CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN (ESP
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE FIRST) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ALSO TAKE A NOSE DIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING 850 TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 2 DEGREES C
WILL FALL TO NEAR -6 DEGREES C WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS START
TO SATURATE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DESCENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS MUCH
COLDER 850 TEMPS MOVE INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FARTHER NORTH WHERE NOW IT HAS SHIFTED
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
APPEARS TO HAVE A SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY RAP AROUND AND SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
BURLINGTON SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS NOW HIGHLIGTING OUR AREA FOR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (ON ALL THE NAM... GFS... AND EURO). FOR
NOW HAVE JUST TRENDED POPS IN THIS DIRECTION.
THURSDAY MORNING ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SKIES
WILL ALSO SLOWLY CLEAR THURSDAY LEAVING HIGH TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID
40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUNNY SKIES.
BY MONDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. MODELS DIFFER HERE ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
PIECE OF ENERGY BUT DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIP. FOR
NOW HAVE SCALED BACK POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. VSBYS HAVE ALSO DROPPED INTO IFR TO LIFR...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PCPN SHIELD LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO. EXPECT THIS PCPN TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH KDAY AND POSSIBLY KCMH/KLCK
REMAINING ON THE EDGE OF THE BETTER PCPN. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL THEN DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH IFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH REST OF
THE MORNING. PCPN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH CIGS LIFTING UP INTO MVFR CATEGORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
310 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS MORNING...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE VISIBILITY REPORTS
RANGE FROM 1/4 TO A 1/2 MILE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING...SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR. THE
CURRENT FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT RAP
SOUNDINGS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...PERHAPS INTO THE OKC AREA.
THE CORE OF A VERY STRONG UPPER JET (150-160 KNOTS) WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...AS A MID/UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
SOUTHWEST-WEST TO NORTHWEST. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE RATHER WEAK...BUT MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES...ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE EC IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. A WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PART OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE RATHER
LOW (LESS THAN 1/8- 1/4 INCH).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 51 29 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 50 28 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 54 30 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 49 24 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 50 28 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 53 32 53 35 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
OKZ014>017-021>023-033>038.
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ083>085.
&&
$$
03/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
317 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM CONCERNS THE BROAD AREA OF
FOG...DENSE AT TIMES...COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS FAIRLY WELL...AND
BOTH SUGGEST THE FOG WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND ALSO THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. OUR DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 9
AM AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND IT AN HOUR OR TWO
FOR SOME COUNTIES.
AFTER THE FOG BREAKS...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP INTO THE 50S
THIS AFTERNOON...JUST SHY OF AVERAGE HIGHS. WEST WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT...AND THE SWATH OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY RUNNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH OUR SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY EVENING.
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WORKING THROUGH
THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING
IN SOME COLDER AIR AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT THE
AIRMASS SHOULD BE PRETTY DRY AND WE DON/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...
A WELL-DESERVED RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY IS FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN ENTER THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
REMAIN THE STANDARD SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
RESOLVED OVER THE COMING DAYS...BUT RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER MUTED. HENCE...THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK
TO SQUEEZE OUT WHAT PRECIPITATION IT DOES...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR IT CAN DRAW SOUTHWARD WITH IT...A LITTLE SNOW COULD
MIX IN...AT LEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW TO KICK OFF THE NEW WEEK...THOUGH ANOTHER
QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCE /OR TWO/ COULD FOLLOW BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY DECEMBER WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYS. HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ024>026-
029>032-034>038-040>044.
&&
$$
33/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
213 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
AS FEARED...THE DENSE FOG REGION IS EXPANDING WESTWARD AND THE
LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE EVENTUAL WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD EXTENT IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT WE HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST
AS FAR AS HOCKLEY AND TERRY COUNTIES AND ALSO INTO HALE COUNTY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015/
AVIATION...
LIFR FOG HAS FORMED AT KCDS A BIT QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. FOG
LOOKS TO BE QUITE THIN AS VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...SIGNAL IS
INDICATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXIST JUST
E OF KLBB/KPVW WITH CLEAR SKIES WEST AND DENSE FOG EAST. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT FOG SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF BOTH TERMINALS
THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A MIXED STORY. PLANNING AN ALTERNATE FOR
FLIGHTS BEFORE 15Z IS LIKELY A GOOD COURSE OF ACTION DESPITE THE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIFR. IT WILL BE CLOSE IT WOULD SEEM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015/
UPDATE...
GIVEN TRENDS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY GENERALLY EAST OF A SILVERTON TO POST LINE. MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRATUS WHICH HAS BEGUN TO
LOWER SURFACE VISIBILITIES. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION...SUSPECT THAT DENSE FOG WILL FORM OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015/
SHORT TERM...
RATHER STRONG NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN BANDS OF
MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS RACING OVERHEAD...OTHERWISE BENIGN IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH TUESDAY. ALL THE MEANINGFUL ELEMENTS ARE NEAR THE
SURFACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE COLD MOIST AIRMASS HAS BEEN SWEPT
OFF THE CAPROCK TODAY...BUT LINGERS OUT TO THE EAST OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND IS NOT LIKELY TO ERODE COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID
TO LATE EVENING...SURFACE COOLING ALLIED WITH A WEAK SOUTHWARD SLOSH
OF THE COLD GUNK TO THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO POCKETS OF SATURATION AND
VERY POSSIBLY FOG FORMATION OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. FURTHER
SATURATION OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD FOG...AND CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST
LIGHT ICE DEPOSITION AND POOR VISIBILITIES ALTHOUGH THE FOG LAYER
MAY BE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FEET THICK. AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY MIXING
WILL QUICKLY STIR LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE THE FOG AND LEAD
TO ANOTHER DECENT DAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTH COMPARED TO NORTH
WHERE A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EDGING SOUTHWARD LATE
IN THE DAY. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
OUR THANKSGIVING STORM OF THIS PAST WEEKEND HAS ONE MORE GIFT IN
STORE FOR US AS IT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
PULLED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS THAT
AFTERNOON. THE GOOD NEWS IS FROPA WILL BE DRY! PAST THAT...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOW A QUICK RIDGING PATTERN THAT BREAKS DOWN BY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WHAT HAPPENS
SUNDAY. A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON SATURDAY IN THE LONG
RANGE MODELS BUT THE GFS KEEPS IT AS A WEAK OPEN...AND DRY...LOW AS
IT PASSES ON SUNDAY BEFORE DEVELOPING MORE IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY. THE EURO PUSHES A FULLY CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION...SOME EVEN LINGERING INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A GOOD PUSH OF COLD AIR
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR
THE SRN PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE MORNING FOR SUNDAY
WITH THE REST OF THE AREA BEING ALL LIQUID. HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS
BEING COMPLETELY DRY...KEPT WITH LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY. IN
SUMMARY...IT MAY BE A LITTLE SOGGY ON SUNDAY BUT THIS COMING WEEKEND
SHOULD BE AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THIS PAST ONE.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ024>026-
029>032-034>038-040>044.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
436 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE
DAY AGAIN...BUT WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A SLOW
RISE IN TEMPERATURES. MOIST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A
COUPLE MORE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE RAINFALL
TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A FINAL ROUND OF RAIN BEFORE FINALLY
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND IT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM EST TUESDAY...
LATEST WAVE OF PRECIP OVERRUNNING COLD WEDGE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MORE MODERATE PRECIP RATES
SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF ABOUT THE U.S. 460 LINE AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT
SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY BE LEFT BEHIND SO
ONLY LOWERING POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY SOUTH OF THIS WAVE. ANOTHER
WAVE PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS IN
CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA BY MIDDAY BUT MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. THUS EAST OF ABOUT INTERSTATE 81 MAY SEE ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TIME HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW
RUNOFF ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT BEFORE NEXT WAVE OF
RAIN MOVES IN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING FROM THE WEST.
RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE PRETTY DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP AND
TIMING OF THESE WAVES TODAY IT APPEARS.
MEANWHILE...THE OTHER ISSUE TODAY IS HOW LONG THE WEDGE WILL HANG
ON...AND ALL GUIDANCE INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WITH GOOD
HANDLE ON TERRAIN AND GOOD VERTICAL RESOLUTION SUGGEST IT ERODES
BY MIDDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY AFTERNOON. THIS DUE TO FAIRLY
GOOD SW WINDS AT TOP OF THE WEDGE AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
INTO WEDGE AND LOSS OF DRY ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST AS SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. HARD TO GO TOO STRONGLY
AGAINST THESE HIGH RES...BUT DID LEAN MORE TOWARD COOLER AND
SLOWER EROSION OF WEDGE IN FAR NORTHEAST AREAS SUCH AS LYH...AND
KEEP TEMPS PRETTY STEADY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE
ONLY SLOWLY RISING. NO SUNSHINE EXPECTED BUT BY AFTERNOON THE
CEILINGS WILL LIFT SOMEWHAT WHILE PRECIP TAKES A SHORT BREAK MOST
AREAS...UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY WEST AND
SPREADS EAST BY LATE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...PRECIP INCREASES IN MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL NOT CROSS OVER APPALACHIANS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE GOOD SLUG OF RAINFALL BY
MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...WITH FOCUS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF BLUE
RIDGE...AND CONCERN IS MUCH OF THIS WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL SINCE LATE SUNDAY. THE CURRENT
FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD...WITH ANOTHER ONE AND A HALF TO
TWO INCHES EXPECTED IN PARTS OF NW NC AND FOOTHILL REGION THROUGH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND AT LEAST ONE AND HALF UP THROUGH THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG BLUE RIDGE. THIS COULD EASILY BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SOME STREAMS COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS BY EARLY WED
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO WED. TEMPERATURES TUES NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR MAY EVEN SLOWLY
RISE...ESPECIALLY IN PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE DRIVING A WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE DYNAMIC
FORCING IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS SATURATED THANKS TO SEVERAL DAYS OF
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE
END RESULT WILL BE A BURST OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING ONE
INCH FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO VA FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON
TARGET AND CURRENTLY DO NOT SEE A REASON TO EXPAND THE AREA OF
CONCERN...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEAR TERM RAINFALL TRENDS TO
SEE IF AN EXPANSION BECOMES NECESSARY.
ONCE WE GET BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND GENERATE SOME
UPSLOPE RAIN/TO/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH SOME LOCATION MAY SEE A
DUSTING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND BRING US FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS ANY REMNANTS
OF THE WEDGE VANISH...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S EAST OF THE
RIDGE/MIDDLE 50S WEST WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CONDITIONS
MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER
50S EAST/MIDDLE 40S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...
A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB PATTERN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
BUT OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DIFFER IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION
OF THIS FEATURE. DESPITE THIS WEAKNESS...OVERALL 500MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE
IN THE EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECTED DRY
WEATHER THROUGH DAY 6 THEN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGS A PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST MONDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITION EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LOW CLOUDS...RAIN AND DRIZZLE...THOUGH SOME BREAK IN THE RAINFALL
MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-18Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SMALL WINDOW
IS MEDIUM. NONETHELESS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL IFR OR WORSE.
HEAVIER RAINS WILL START TO MOVE TOWARD BLF/LWB BY LATE TUE
NIGHT...BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TEMPORARILY TUES NIGHT AS THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH BEFORE A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SOME RELATIVELY BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL
FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN NW FLOW...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR IN UPSLOPE
AREAS AT KBLF AND KLWB MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURS MORNING BEHIND
FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND INCLUDING THE NC FOOTHILLS. THIS
AREA STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE AND A HALF TO
TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
OF THIS REGION...AND ALL ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL GO INTO RUNOFF AT
THIS POINT.
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY RISE ABOVE BANKFULL. LOW WATER
CROSSING AND POOR DRAINING AREAS IN URBAN LOCATIONS MAY BE
FLOODED. TRIBUTARIES THAT FEED INTO THE YADKIN RIVER...THE
HEADWATERS OF THE NEW RIVER...THE ROANOKE...AND THE UPPER DAN
RIVER MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ON THE DAN AND ROANOKE RIVERS WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
VAZ007-009-010-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...KK/SK/WP
HYDROLOGY...KK/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1132 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
STILL QUITE THE CHALLENGING FORECAST HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM A PRECIPITATION TYPE STANDPOINT...WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY WILL PLAY INTO JUST HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS IN ANY GIVEN
AREA. AS WELL DISCUSSED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE BEST RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN/FAR NORTHERN
CWA WHILE OTHER SPOTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE DEAL WITH AN
ENCROACHING WARM NOSE. THAT FEATURE IS PLAINLY EVIDENT ON THE 12Z
QUAD CITIES RAOB...WITH A NOSE OF ABOUT +4C CENTERED ON 800MB. AS IS
USUAL IN THESE DEVELOPING NEGATIVE TILT/TROWAL FEATURE SETUPS...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO UNDERPLAY THE WARM NOSE...WITH EVEN THE MOST
RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP FAILING TO CAPTURE THE TRUE DEGREE OF THAT
FEATURE. WE`RE ONLY TALKING 1-2C OF DIFFERENCE...BUT THAT MAKES A
HUGE DIFFERENCE WHEN IT COMES TO PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.
SO...WHAT`S MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN? APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
SHARP UPTICK IN MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASCENT
WILL SWING ANOTHER BAND OR TWO OF PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...INCREASINGLY CHASED NORTHWARD BY
THE APPROACH OF A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. AS EXPECTED THE
PAST FEW DAYS...SUSPECT THIS PRECIP WILL LARGELY FALL AS A COLD RAIN
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SOME SLEET
AT TIMES WITH ENOUGH OF A COLD DOME AROUND -2C BELOW 850MB BUT WITH
SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MITIGATING ANY BIG IMPACTS. FARTHER
NORTH...SAY ROUGHLY NORTH AND WEST OF A NEILLSVILLE WI TO WINONA MN
TO DODGE CENTER IA LINE...LOOKING FOR MORE OF A MESSY MIX...WITH MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGING FROM ABOUT 1.5C TO AS LOW AS -1C...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR WEST. SOME CONVECTIVE
COMPONENT TO THE PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO THE
SITUATION WITH HINTS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES CROSSING THE AREA FOR A
TIME ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT. ALL TOLD...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SLOPPY WET SNOW TO FALL WHERE ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A NARROW DGZ AND QUITE "WARM"
THERMAL PROFILE.
STILL HAVE TO WONDER IF THERE COULD BE A NARROW WINDOW ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR QUICKLY WRAPS
BACK IN TO GIVEN A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW TO AREAS FARTHER EAST.
HOWEVER...WE SHOULD TREND QUICKLY TOWARD MAYBE A LITTLE DRIZZLE OR
EVEN NO PRECIP AT ALL WITHIN THE DRY SLOT WITH A LACK OF ANY ICE IN
THE CLOUD BUT SATURATION HANGING AROUND UP TO 700MB BEFORE CRASHING
BELOW 850MB OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. THEN AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP IN ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE
CLOSED LOW DRIFTS OVERHEAD...WE SHOULD SEE A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
FILTER BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH REALLY WONDER IF NORTHERN
AREAS SEE NOTHING MUCH AT ALL THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN HOW WRAPPED UP
THE SYSTEM IS WITH THE DRY SLOW WRAPPING NORTH ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR. A FEW BATCHES OF LIGHT LINGERING SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOULD
WORK BACK THROUGH THE REGION RIGHT ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PROBABLY EVEN WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH MORE
CLOUD COVER STICKING AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DEPARTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
A WELL-DESERVED BREAK FOR US FORECASTERS INTO LATE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DOWNRIGHT AWESOME WEATHER FOR EARLY DECEMBER
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
STEADFAST AGREEMENT WITH A RETURN TO BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE
PLAINS/MID CONUS THROUGH LATE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. THAT FEATURE
MAY MAKE A RUN AT OUR AREA SOMETIME LATER IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH A NOTABLE LACK OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS THE GULF EFFECTIVELY REMAINS CLOSED. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO VERY SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE ENTIRE
REGION RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SETTING UP BROADENING RETURN
FLOW TOWARD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE PATTERN SETUP...HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING ANY REASON TO
HAVE ANY CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST...WITH JUST SOME FANTASTIC LATE
FALL WEATHER AS DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY REBOUND THROUGH
THE 30S AND LIKELY INTO THE 40S FOR SNOW-FREE AREAS BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
INITIALLY BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WHERE SNOW COVER RESIDES...BUT
SHOULD OTHERWISE HOLD WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. ABOUT THE ONLY POSSIBLE "FLY IN THE
OINTMENT" WOULD BE ANY PESKY FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BY
THE WEEKEND AS WE MELT SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS...BUT OBVIOUSLY
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS VERY LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SNOW AT KRST...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
NORTH OF THE TAF AIRFIELDS. AT THE SAME TIME...CEILINGS WILL DROP
INTO THE IFR RANGE WITH MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN MIST.
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
WIZ017-029-032>034.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
MNZ079-086-087-094-095.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
IAZ008-009-018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1045 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
PRIMARILY SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
POSITIVE UPR HEIGHT ANOMALY MIGRATING EWD ACRS CANADA WL KEEP THE
FLOW ACRS NOAM SPLIT THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD. A STG SRN STREAM
UPR LOW CROSSING THE RGN WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THAT SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY SIG PCPN PRODUCER AS
FOR THE MOST PART...THE FORECAST AREA WL REMAIN BETWEEN THE NRN
AND SRN STREAMS DURING THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WL PROBABLY END UP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD. THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WL KEEP COLD AIR BOTTLED UP
WAY N OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN ABV NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND PART OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. ELONGATED BUT FAIRLY WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...GENERALLY ABOVE 6KFT...IS PUSHING IN LIGHT SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI. A DECENT FEED OF
VERY DRY AIR AOB 850MB IS CAUSING THESE SHOWERS TO DRY UP AS THEY
REACH THE ROUTE 29 CORRIDOR. A MORE WIDESPREAD BAND OF
PRECIPITATION IS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MN AND
IOWA...BUT THINNING OUT OVER MISSOURI. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...PRECIP TIMING/TYPE/AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WITH ITS OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN TO
SOUTHEAST WI BY LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MOVING NORTHWARD WILL IMPACT MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI
AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY BAND OF RAIN. EXPECT THE DRY FEED OF LOW LEVEL
AIR TO WIN OUT GENERALLY NORTH OF A STRUGEON BAY TO TOMAHAWK LINE.
THEN THE PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIP WILL PUSH FROM SW TO NE LATE IN THE
EVENING TO OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A WARM TONGUE OF AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800MB WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST WITH THE BAND OF PRECIP. WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...ALL SORTS OF PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AS THE
MORE STEADY PRECIP ARRIVES. COLDER SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND N-C WI SUPPORT MAINLY A SNOW-SLEET
MIX...WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN WITHIN THE WARM WEDGE OF AIR. THE
SREF HAS LOW PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING
IN THESE AREAS...SO REMAINED CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS BY KEEPING THEM
STEADY NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT. BECAUSE PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY BE
CHANGING FREQUENTLY...THINK ANY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL REACH
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST THANKS TO A SOUTHEAST WIND COMING OFF THE LAKE.
TUESDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES. THE AIR LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO
SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE EXITING CENTRAL WI AS THIS
OCCURS...BUT N-C WISCONSIN COULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2
INCHES...BRINGING THE TOTAL TO AROUND 2-3 INCHES. THE MORNING
COMMUTE MAY BECOME RATHER SLOPPY...AND WILL ADDRESS THIS IMPACT WITH
AN SPS. AS THE PRECIP PULLS OUT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...A DRY SLOT WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD. THERE MAY BE SOME
DRIZZLE WITHIN THIS DRY SLOT...BUT KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STARTS TO INTRUDE INTO CENTRAL WI DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN PRECIP CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE
AGAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
REMNANTS OF UPR LOW WL SLOWLY EDGE EWD ACRS THE AREA TUE NGT AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO FALL AS
SNOW...THOUGH THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE ALL THAT MUCH PCPN LEFT.
PCPN MAY COME DOWN TO MESOSCALE BANDS OF SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH SML
DISTURBANCES ROTG ARND THE UPR SYSTEM. THOSE COULD AFFECT JUST
ABOUT ANY LOCATION IN THE FCST AREA. THERE IS PERHAPS A LITTLE
BETTER CHC OF SHSN ACRS E-C WI LATE TUE NGT INTO WED MORNING AS
BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM INDICATE THAT REGION GETTING CLIPPED BY AN
AREA OF QG FORCING LIFTG NEWD TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. RAISED POPS
SOME IN E-C WI TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...THOUGH DID NOT
WANT ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT SHSN IN THE FCST AT THIS POINT.
THE SPLIT UPR FLOW WL LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF QUIET WX
ONCE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. NO SIG CHGS TO THE EXTENDED FCST GRIDS
BASED ON A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN TAF
SITES TONIGHT...WITH MORE RAIN OVER THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS HAVE HUNG IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW THIS SHOULD COME TO AN ABRUPT HALT AS
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN OVER
TO ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z. SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY...POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES. AFTER THE LOW PASSES...THERE WILL
BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH THE
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TUESDAY
EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
940 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD AND
THIS IS CREATING A DIFFICULT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTH AND EASTWARD.
IT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS...BUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT...THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
FALLING APART. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO HAVE AN EASIER
TIME MOVING TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES
AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SIMULATED RADAR REFLECTIVITY FIELDS FROM THE HRRR AND THE
4-KM NAM INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CONNECTICUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGING
ALOFT JUST TO THE EAST. WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RETREATING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW...SOME GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE STEADIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE
LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE SATURATED AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTH. LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION WITH MODELS INDICATING A NEW WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE COAST. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE...2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WILL INTERACT WITH THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR RAIN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF
THE RAIN COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
INLAND TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER CLOSED LOW/TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED WHEN COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT`S RUNS. SFC LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR NW ZONES AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SFC LOW
PASSES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...STRENGTH RIGHT AROUND 1000 MB
GIVE OR TAKE.
THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH...AND WINDS VEER TO THE WEST/NW LATE
WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND WILL PICK UP IN SPEED AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TRAVERSE TO THE EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN AS LOW LEVEL NW/DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. PRESENCE OF
UPPER TROUGH THOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS...MORE SO AS YOU HEAD
NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
DO NOT FORESEE ANY PRECIP WITH IT. RIDGE BUILDS IN IT`S
WAKE...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER VERY WEAK TROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...AND
20S/30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS TODAY AND TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG
AND LIGHT RAIN. PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND E OF A
KJFK-KLGA-KHPN LINE 18-02Z. ENE WINDS MAINLY BLW 15KT. BEST CHC
FOR GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
IFR CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO WED WITH SOME TERMINALS DROPPING TO
LIFR OR POTENTIALLY BELOW TONIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY ONLY BE OCNL TODAY. VARIATION IN
CIGS/VIS LIKELY TODAY.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE TODAY. VARIATION
IN CIGS/VIS LIKELY TODAY.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE TODAY. VARIATION
IN CIGS/VIS LIKELY TODAY.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS MODERATE...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 3-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIATION IN CIGS/VIS LIKELY TODAY.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIATION IN CIGS/VIS LIKELY TODAY.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE TODAY. VARIATION
IN CIGS/VIS LIKELY TODAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 12Z THU. WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE W NEAR 10 KT. GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.THURSDAY...VFR. WNW FLOW 10-20KT. GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
.FRIDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.
.SATURDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOW OCCURRING ON THE OCEAN WATERS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
THE SOUND AND PECONIC/GARDINERS BAYS WITH SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE THERE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT THE HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE
BAYS FROM THE SCA...BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE ZONES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BE STRONGEST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF THE LOW ENDS UP A LITTLE
STRONGER...THE OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE A GUST TO NEAR GALE FORCE.
FLOW WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON
THE OCEAN.
SEAS LIKELY STAY ABOVE SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SW FLOW INCREASES. THE FRONT PASSES
PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES
SO...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...THEN NW AND PICK UP
IN SPEED. IN FACT...WINDS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE THURSDAY FROM
THE NW...MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
PER WAVE WATCH...SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE WINDS INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...THEN SUBSIDE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...BC/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JMC/JM
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
706 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD AND THIS IS CREATING A
DIFFICULT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTH AND EASTWARD. IT IS MAKING SLOW
PROGRESS...BUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
RIDGING ALOFT...THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING APART. THE
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO HAVE AN EASIER TIME MOVING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES AS OF 12Z ARE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHERN CT...IN NEW HAVEN......AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ONCE THE PRECIP SHIELD
REACHES THESE ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN
AN SPS UNTIL 14Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW...BUT
SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY STAY NEAR FREEZING AS THE PRECIP STARTS
TO MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
THEREAFTER AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF PLAIN
RAIN. ELSEWHERE...PLAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES
AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SIMULATED RADAR REFLECTIVITY FIELDS FROM THE HRRR AND THE
4-KM NAM INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CONNECTICUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGING
ALOFT JUST TO THE EAST. HIGHEST POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN CATEGORICAL
EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES NEAREST TO LONG ISLAND
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NEARBY. WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW...SOME
GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE STEADIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE
LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE SATURATED AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTH. LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION WITH MODELS INDICATING A NEW WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE COAST. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE...2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WILL INTERACT WITH THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR RAIN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF
THE RAIN COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
INLAND TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER CLOSED LOW/TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED WHEN COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT`S RUNS. SFC LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR NW ZONES AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SFC LOW
PASSES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...STRENGTH RIGHT AROUND 1000 MB
GIVE OR TAKE.
THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH...AND WINDS VEER TO THE WEST/NW LATE
WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND WILL PICK UP IN SPEED AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TRAVERSE TO THE EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN AS LOW LEVEL NW/DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. PRESENCE OF
UPPER TROUGH THOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS...MORE SO AS YOU HEAD
NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
DO NOT FORESEE ANY PRECIP WITH IT. RIDGE BUILDS IN IT`S
WAKE...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER VERY WEAK TROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...AND
20S/30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS TODAY AND TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG
AND LIGHT RAIN TOWARDS WESTERN TERMINALS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD
EAST THIS MORNING. ENE-E FLOW 5-10 KT BECOMES MORE NE AND
INCREASES TO 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY MAINLY NEAR THE COASTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. INLAND...WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND WINDS THROUGHOUT
LOWER TONIGHT. IFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME
TERMINALS DROPPING TO LIFR OR POTENTIALLY BELOW TONIGHT.
AN OVERALL MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE RAIN MAY BECOME MORE
INTERMITTENT AND THERE COULD BE A LULL WHERE THERE ARE JUST
SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE LOW AT IFR OR
BELOW IN TERMS OF THE CLOUDS OR FOG. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS
LOWERING CATEGORY COULD VARY ON AVERAGE 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST
AND GUST TIMING COULD ALSO BE OFF BY AN AVERAGE OF 1-3 HOURS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BE DELAYED BY 1-2 HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BE DELAYED BY 1-2 HOURS.
TIMING OF IFR COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BE DELAYED BY 1-2 HOURS.
LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS MODERATE...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 3-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO NEAR 15 KT POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF 1-3 HOURS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO NEAR 15 KT POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF 1-3 HOURS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUST TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
IFR TIMING COULD BE OFF 2-4 HOURS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 12Z THU. WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE W NEAR 10 KT. GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.THURSDAY...VFR. WNW FLOW 10-20KT. GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
.FRIDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.
.SATURDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOW OCCURRING ON THE OCEAN WATERS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
THE SOUND AND PECONIC/GARDINERS BAYS WITH SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE THERE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT THE HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE
BAYS FROM THE SCA...BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE ZONES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BE STRONGEST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF THE LOW ENDS UP A LITTLE
STRONGER...THE OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE A GUST TO NEAR GALE FORCE.
FLOW WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON
THE OCEAN.
SEAS LIKELY STAY ABOVE SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SW FLOW INCREASES. THE FRONT PASSES
PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES
SO...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...THEN NW AND PICK UP
IN SPEED. IN FACT...WINDS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE THURSDAY FROM
THE NW...MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
PER WAVE WATCH...SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE WINDS INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...THEN SUBSIDE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
630 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
IN SOME AREAS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER...ALONG
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...A LARGE CUTOFF LOW IS SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A LARGE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE COMING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS TEXAS...THE DEEP AND MID SOUTH...AND UP THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A BATCH OF DEEP AND COLD CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE CATSKILLS FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST.
AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING FOR CHILLY TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE STILL
THIN. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID
30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NE
PA AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS THANKS TO THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE SFC WARM FRONT. THIS PRECIP IS STARTING TO REACH INTO THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE...SOME OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE
SURFACE...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT KPOU
AND KMGJ THIS MORNING. WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT OF 3-5 DEGREES
C...PRECIP IS FALLING AS EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON
SFC TEMPS. THE 10Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST PRECIP WILL REACH INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION BY ABOUT 8-9 AM...AND WILL TAKE UNTIL 11 AM OR SO
TO REACH THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE AREA.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE CALM...OR EVEN LIGHT FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. THIS IS KEEPING THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE
SFC...EVEN WITH THE INCREASING WAA. TEMPS HAVE CREEPED UPWARD IN
SOME SPOTS...BUT STILL ARE LARGELY BELOW FREEZING. IN
ADDITION...THE LARGE T/TD SPREAD WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WET BULBING
ONCE PRECIP BEGINS AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...UNTIL THE SFC
HIGH MOVES AWAY FURTHER AND SFC WINDS SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION...ALLOWING WARMER ABOVE FREEZING AIR TO MOVE INTO REGION
AT LOW LEVELS. PRECIP IS FAIRLY SPOTTY...LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND
BRIEF IN DURATION. THE MAIN FACTOR PREVENTING THIS FROM BEING A
LARGER IMPACT IS NOT THE TEMPS BUT THE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. TOTAL QPF THIS MORNING IS ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY ICE ACCRETION LIMITED TO JUST A
TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. STILL...ANY ICE ACCRETION CAN
MAKE UNTREATED SURFACES SLIPPERY...SO WILL CONTINUE THE FZRA
ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...THE NY ROUTE 7
CORRIDOR...AND THE VT/MA BORDER THROUGH NOON. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY OF ULSTER/DUTCHESS COUNTIES...WHERE SFC
TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...AND THE MAJORITY OF
THE PRECIP WILL JUST BE A PLAIN RAIN. SOME OF THIS ADVISORY AREA
WILL BE ABLE TO GET CANCELED BEFORE NOON...ESP SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND AREAS WHICH FUNNEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WELL...SUCH AS THE
CAPITAL REGION...AS TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY RISE AFTER SUNRISE WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FINALLY TAKING OVER.
FURTHER NORTH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA/SRN VT...STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNING
TOWARDS NOON...BUT WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLD DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP
THAT MAKES IT THAT FAR NORTH BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR THE ADKS AND SRN
VT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SPS OR ADVISORY
IF PRECIP LOOKS MORE WIDESPREAD.
AFTER THIS INITIAL BURST OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN FOR THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL...BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY LIGHT RAINFALL MOVES IN FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WARM
ADVECTION. TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO BE COOL WITH THE CLOUDY SKIES AND
LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...ALONG
WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE JERSEY
SHORE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAINFALL TONIGHT. TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...SO NO THREAT
FOR ANY FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT IN INTENSITY...BUT SHOULD BE FAIRLY STEADY FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE STORM/S COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG IT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
THE STORM/S COLD FRONT LOOKS TO FINALLY CROSS THROUGH THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...AND COOLER AIR STARTING TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA ALOFT. THE LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SOME ADDITIONAL
PRECIP WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SFC LOW...ALONG WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SHOWERS OF RAIN WILL BE ONGOING...AND THESE LOOK TO
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND OTHER NORTHERN
AREAS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AS
THE UPPER LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...OTHERWISE PRECIP WILL JUST BE RAIN SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH. LOWS ON WED NIGHT
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
PRECIP WILL FINALLY TAPER OFF FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY...WITH JUST A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER OR
FLURRY OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SKIES WILL FINALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LOW 30S FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CONNECTICUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL ANTICIPATING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A SPLIT FLOW CONTINUING WHICH
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER THE FLOW IS RATHER
FAST WITH MANY PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
CHANCES FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS CANADA IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FRIDAY WITH READINGS
MODERATING OVER THE WEEKEND AND RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AS THE PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE
ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION AT KPSF SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LIKELY NOT WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING
UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE VERY LIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE AT KPSF IS EXPECTED TO WARM TO
ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING. THE TEMPERATURE AT KALB IS UP TO
31 DEGREES AND GRADUALLY RISING SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF FZRA
FROM TAF. AT KGFL...THE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. AT KPOU TEMPERATURES
ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD/MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM`S WARM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
FOLLOWED BY THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AT
KALB...KGFL AND KPSF. IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS BECOMING CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA/SHSN.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. THE RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR RIVERS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NOVEMBER 2015 GOES DOWN IN THE RECORD BOOKS AS ONE OF THE WARMEST FOR
ALBANY AND POUGHKEEPSIE...AND ONE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST FOR GLENS FALLS.
AT ALBANY: TIES FOR 4TH WARMEST (45.5 DEGREES)
AT POUGHKEEPSIE: 3RD WARMEST 46.3 DEGREES)
AT GLENS FALLS: 2ND WARMEST (42.8 DEGREES) AND 2ND DRIEST (1.05 INCHES)
AUTUMN 2015 WILL ALSO GO DOWN IN THE RECORDS BOOK AS ONE OF THE WARMEST
ON RECORDS FOR ALBANY AND GLENS FALLS...AND THE WARMEST FOR POUGHKEEPSIE.
AT ALBANY: 4TH WARMEST (54.6 DEGREES)
AT GLENS FALLS: 3RD WARMEST (51.8 DEGREES)
AT POUGHKEEPSIE: WARMEST (55.7 DEGREES) BREAKING THE OLD RECORD SET BACK
IN 2005 BY 0.2 DEGREES
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038>040-
047>054-058>061-063-066-082.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
534 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD AND THIS IS CREATING
A DIFFICULT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTH AND EASTWARD. IT IS MAKING
SLOW PROGRESS...BUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
RIDGING ALOFT...THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING APART. THE
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO HAVE AN EASIER TIME MOVING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES AS OF 10Z ARE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHERN CT...IN NEW HAVEN......AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ONCE THE PRECIP SHIELD
REACHES THESE ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN
AN SPS UNTIL 14Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW...BUT
SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY STAY NEAR FREEZING AS THE PRECIP STARTS
TO MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
THEREAFTER AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF PLAIN
RAIN. ELSEWHERE...PLAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES
AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SIMULATED RADAR REFLECTIVITY FIELDS FROM THE HRRR AND THE
4-KM NAM INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CONNECTICUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGING
ALOFT JUST TO THE EAST. HIGHEST POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN CATEGORICAL
EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES NEAREST TO LONG ISLAND
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NEARBY. WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW...SOME
GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE STEADIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE
LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE SATURATED AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTH. LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION WITH MODELS INDICATING A NEW WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE COAST. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE...2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WILL INTERACT WITH THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR RAIN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF
THE RAIN COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
INLAND TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER CLOSED LOW/TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED WHEN COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT`S RUNS. SFC LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR NW ZONES AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SFC LOW
PASSES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...STRENGTH RIGHT AROUND 1000 MB
GIVE OR TAKE.
THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH...AND WINDS VEER TO THE WEST/NW LATE
WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND WILL PICK UP IN SPEED AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TRAVERSE TO THE EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN AS LOW LEVEL NW/DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. PRESENCE OF
UPPER TROUGH THOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS...MORE SO AS YOU HEAD
NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
DO NOT FORESEE ANY PRECIP WITH IT. RIDGE BUILDS IN IT`S
WAKE...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER VERY WEAK TROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...AND
20S/30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TAKING SHAPE OUT TOWARDS WESTERN
TERMINALS AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST THIS MORNING WITH FOG AND
RAIN DEVELOPMENT. ENE-E FLOW 5-10 KT BECOMES MORE NE AND INCREASES
TO 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY MAINLY NEAR THE COASTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KT. INLAND...WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND WINDS OVERALL LOWER TONIGHT. IFR
CONTINUES TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY COULD LOWER BELOW IFR AT TIMES.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS MODERATE...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 3-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HOURS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HOURS.
A QUICK VFR TO IFR TRANSITION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HOURS.
A QUICK VFR TO IFR TRANSITION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 12Z THU. WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE W.
.THURSDAY...VFR. WNW FLOW 10-20KT.
.FRIDAY...VFR. W FLOW 10-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOW OCCURRING ON THE OCEAN WATERS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
THE SOUND AND PECONIC/GARDINERS BAYS WITH SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE THERE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT THE HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE
BAYS FROM THE SCA...BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE ZONES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BE STRONGEST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF THE LOW ENDS UP A LITTLE
STRONGER...THE OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE A GUST TO NEAR GALE FORCE.
FLOW WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON
THE OCEAN.
SEAS LIKELY STAY ABOVE SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SW FLOW INCREASES. THE FRONT PASSES
PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES
SO...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...THEN NW AND PICK UP
IN SPEED. IN FACT...WINDS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE THURSDAY FROM
THE NW...MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
PER WAVE WATCH...SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE WINDS INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...THEN SUBSIDE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
930 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM GIVEN WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST RAP SHOWS FOG LIKELY NOT BREAKING
UP UNTIL 10-11AM ACROSS THE AREA. VSBY HAVE COME UP A BIT ACROSS
THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH NETWORK WSR-
88D IMAGERY SHOWING MUCH OF THE RAIN REMAINING ACROSS NC/TN/AL.
STILL SOME POCKETS OF DRIZZLE NOTED IN SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER THIS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MARCHES
ACROSS TN AND THE CENTRAL GULF STATES.
STILL FORECASTING FOG AND STRATUS TO BURN OFF SLOWLY THIS MORNING
WITH SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR DECEMBER 1ST WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
THROUGH CSRA...WITH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S WHERE CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER AND LIMIT INSOLATION.
AGAIN FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
APPROACHING TONIGHT...HOWEVER WILL SLOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA TONIGHT WITH LOWERS POPS ELSEWHERE DUE
TO THE FRONTAL INTERACTIONS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. FOG AND STRATUS
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FRONT SHOULD
START PUSHING EAST LATE WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...PWAT VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
RISE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. IT ALSO STILL APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AS WELL WITH
FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2C. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND UPPER FORCING REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WEDNESDAY AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
A MILD AIRMASS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER TEMPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODELS SHOWING A
NARROWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR.
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN BEGIN SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 16Z-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 21Z. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND BE JUST WEST OF THE
TAF SITES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AGAIN
FOR TONIGHT WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE. HAVE INCLUDED IFR FOG AT
ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING AROUND 02/05Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR FOG AND STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED INTO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS COLUMBIA SC
840 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO 11 AM GIVEN
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES.
LATEST RAP SHOWS FOG LIKELY NOT BREAKING UP UNTIL 10-11AM ACROSS
THE AREA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH NETWORK
WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWING MUCH OF THE RAIN REMAINING ACROSS
NC/TN/AL. SOME DRIZZLE NOTED IN SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS...HOWEVER THIS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN MIGRATING NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MARCHES ACROSS TN AND THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES. EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS TO BURN OFF SLOWLY THIS MORNING
WITH SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS THROUGH CSRA...WITH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WHERE CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER AND
LIMIT INSOLATION.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING TONIGHT...HOWEVER WILL SLOW
AS IT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA TONIGHT WITH
LOWERS POPS ELSEWHERE DUE TO THE FRONTAL INTERACTIONS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FRONT SHOULD
START PUSHING EAST LATE WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...PWAT VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
RISE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. IT ALSO STILL APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AS WELL WITH
FORECAST LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2C. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND UPPER FORCING REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WEDNESDAY AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
A MILD AIRMASS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER TEMPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODELS SHOWING A
NARROWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR.
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN BEGIN SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY 16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 21Z. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND BE JUST WEST OF THE
TAF SITES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT
AND WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE INCLUDED IFR FOG AT ALL TAF
SITES BEGINNING AROUND 02/05Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR FOG AND STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED INTO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
638 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
AT 3 AM CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR SIOUX FALLS
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. RELATIVELY MILD AIR REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. A W/SW BREEZE WAS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS.
PATCHY DRIZZLE PERSISTED IN FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
PATCHY DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK
FOR A GUSTY W/SW WIND...NEAR 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATED BY BUFR
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS AN IDEAL SET-UP FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THIS SCENARIO HAS SUPPORT FROM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NMM. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS NEAR I-80 MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW
OR RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES. SOME AREAS AFFECTED BY THE SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT PICK UP A LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SUDDEN BURSTS OF SNOW THAT REDUCE VISIBILITY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW INCREASES. AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE
MORNING AS LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/VORTICITY MAX TRACKS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ENHANCED
VORT. LOBE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER-LOW LEADING TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW SFC LOW OVER NE ILLINOIS WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY TRACK INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER-LOW WILL ADVECT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY AND LAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK PVA...AND CONVERGENCE ATTENDANT TO A SUBTLE
SFC PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MODELS ARE PAINTING
QPF OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO. SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE MID MORNING...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...SO
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE.
NAM/NMM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTN...COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES REDEVELOP. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
WITH AN EXTENSION INTO THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS AND
WAA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...850MB TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE BY
APPROXIMATELY 16 C. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON
THURSDAY THEN MID TO UPPER 40S BY FRIDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL
MAKE IT FEEL VERY NICE BY EARLY DECEMBER STANDARDS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MILD/ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS NEAR 552 DAM AND
850MB TEMPS NEAR 5 C. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
POTENTIAL SOUTHWEST U.S. SHORTWAVE MAY REACH THE MIDWEST BY MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THIS FAR OUT. UTTECH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AT KCID/KDBQ. MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL BE
COMMON...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN POCKETS OF
HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOW SHOWERS FAVORED
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. A W/SW WIND WILL GUST AOA 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DIMINISH BELOW 10 KTS THIS EVENING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1035 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACTIVELY CROSSING CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT SLOWING AS IT COMES EAST. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTING
A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG IT IN ADDITION TO THE BATCH
CURRENTLY DRIFTING OVER FAR EAST PARTS OF THE STATE. THE RAIN HAS
BEEN MODERATELY HEAVY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. ADDITIONAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HEADWATERS OF THE CUMBERLAND TODAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER OUR AREA AND A SFC WAVE RUNS NORTH ALONG IT PER THE LATEST
NAM12 AND HRRR RUNS. CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MILD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CURRENTLY...RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS ARE GENERALLY SOUTH
AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH OR SO. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY AND ADD IN THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS ALONG WITH THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
AN AREA OF STEADIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR LMK. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK INTO OUR AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN EDGE OF KY.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AREA-WIDE FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. DID A QUICK
REFRESH TO THE HOURLY GRIDS. SENT UPDATES TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOWS NO SIGN OF
LETTING UP AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
RIGHT ON THE DOORSTEP. SO THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
STEADIER PRECIP FROM THE SW BUT SHOULDN/T LAST FOR LONG.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AS A
SFC LOW TRACKS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. RAINFALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO LEAD TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS. AND
DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL...ON TOP OF RAINFALL WE HAVE
RECEIVED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW STREAMS OR CREEKS COULD
NEAR BANKFULL DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT EXITS OUR AREA TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 50S THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE 40S BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR
USHERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
A TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE MOIST AS THE COLUMN COOLS...SO HAVE
INCLUDED A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THERE MAY BE
A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MIX IN A FEW FLAKES. DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN TAKE HOLD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING A BIT BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST MORNING...WITH SOME MID 20S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS
POSSIBLE.
A BLOCKY PATTERN THEN SETS UP EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WHILE ANOTHER LOW SEPARATES FROM THE MAIN FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODEL AGREEMENT DETERIORATES
MORE TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THIS PATTERN GRADUALLY BREAKS
DOWN AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED
A SLOWER OUTCOME...WHICH WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
NEARBY. BELOW NORMAL READINGS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY BACK TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS MOVED IN. THIS SWATH OF STEADIER
RAIN SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED BEHIND IT.
DUE TO THE VARYING RAIN INTENSITY...VARIABLE CIGS AND VISIBILITY
EXIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS HAS LED TO A TRICKY FORECAST BUT
DECIDED TO HEDGE ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION ESPECIALLY SINCE LAMP
GUIDANCE KEEPS IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO
DECIDED TO INTRODUCE FOG AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE TAF SITES SINCE THE
GROUND WILL BE VERY MOIST POST-RAINFALL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN 10KT OR LESS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
705 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW
SUPPORTED A BAND OF MAINLY RAIN THROUGH NRN UPPER MI AS AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER PERSISTED WITH 925-850 MB WAA. WITH SFC TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST AT OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...THE
RAIN HAS RESULTED IN ICY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. THE NEXT
BATCH OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN AREA OF 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL AND SE WI.
TODAY...AFTER THE INITIAL ROUND OF PCPN...THERE MAY BE LULL BEFORE
PCPN INCREASES AGAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 14Z-18Z AS AN AREA OF STRONG 800-600
MB FGEN ADVANCES THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TEMP
PROFILE WILL FAVOR MAINLY SNOW AS COLDER AIR ELIMINATES THE WARM
LAYER. WITH QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 INCH AND RELATIVELY LOW SLR
VALUES IN THE 8/1-10/1 RANGE SNOWFALL AMONTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF
MQT-IMT.
TONIGHT...WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN...POPS WILL DIMINISH WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
DEAPRTS...EXCEPT FROM IWD-CMX-P59...EXPECT -DZ TO -FZDZ AS SFC TEMPS
DROP. WITH THE SFC TROUGH REMAINING OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...NO
ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED AS LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAIL.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST WILL REMAIN LESSTHAN A HALF
INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
EXPECT A SLOW AND STEADY WARMUP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE 500MB LOW OVER THE SE HALF
OF WI...AND AN ELONGATED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM SE WI AND S LAKE MI
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AS THE DAY ROLLS
ON THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT E...LINGERING OVER
FAR E LAKE SUPERIOR AND E LOWER MI BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE FOCUS FOR
LINGERING PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO W UPPER MI AND WEAKEN. FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE N-NNW WINDS DO NOT COME INTO PLAY UNTIL 21Z. EVEN THEN 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY COLD AT -4 TO -5C AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
TRAPPED BELOW 800MB AND DIMINISHING. THE DGZ IS WAY UP AROUND 600MB.
CAN/T RULE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW AROUND IWD...BUT OTHER
LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPECT LESS. INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL TO
AROUND 900MB BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED
ICE CRYSTALS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE W HALF...INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER TAKING
HOLD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF NOTE...WHERE THE E COULD GET
CLIPPED BY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MORE OF A MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK WELL TO OUR N /ACROSS
HUDSON BAY/...TEMPORARILY SUPPRESSING THE SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR E...FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AIR
TO SURGE INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN LOW. EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SATURDAY /WARMEST OVER THE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN...HANGING TO SNOW...WILL
ALSO DROP VSBY INTO THE 1-3SM RANGE BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE LATER IN THE
EVENING AT SAW...WHEN SOME DRYING WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THE SRN FLANK OF LOW PRES DEPARTING INTO ONTARIO. OTHERWISE CIGS IN
THE IFR TO LOW MVFR RANGE WILL LINGER AT IWD/CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 542 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
ESE WINDS TO 30 KNOTS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS A TROUGH
WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
BELOW 20 KNOTS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH WED NIGHT. SW WINDS TO 30
KNOTS VEERING TO THE WEST AND NW ARE POSSIBLE THU AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
25 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
645 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO START THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN LIFR CEILING AND IFR VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG
OVER SE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SCOUR
OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING VFR THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. SHALLOW
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT COULD
BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTION.
FOR DTW...
LIFR CEILING AND IFR VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG WILL LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. A CLEARING TREND DURING THE EVENING WILL BRING VFR UNDER
PARTIAL HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE. DTW HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR FOG
AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY DUE TO LIGHT SOUTH/SE WIND FROM LAKE ERIE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE/POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE/POTENTIAL FOR CEILING BELOW 200 FT DURING THE
MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTER PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
PATTERN OF RAIN SHOWERS EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER ENSURING AN ALL RAIN EVENT. A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL LAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SURFACE
FRONT SWEEPS THE MOISTURE EASTWARD. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SPREAD OVER SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THE
BROAD EXPANSE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE
SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A TEXTBOOK OCCLUSION THAT WILL HAVE A TRIPLE
POINT SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER DURING THE MORNING UNDER
DEEP DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE
OCCLUSION WILL FORCE THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN LEADING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY BY ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST BOOST OF DEFORMATION THAT MAY
RESULT IN A LOCALIZED INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS...MODEL QPF IS ON THE LOW SIDE WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MUTED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND NAM 4KM.
THIS CAN BE EXPLAINED BY THE SHALLOW AND WEAK LAYER OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS THAT RESULTS FROM THE
OTHERWISE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WITHIN THE FAR NE FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. RADAR TRENDS LEADING UP TO PRESS
TIME SUPPORT A BROKEN PATTERN OF LIGHTER SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE
MOISTURE AXIS ROTATES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY RATHER THAN
A SOLID BAND WITH GREATER INTENSITY SUCH AS THAT OBSERVED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AS THE
DRY SLOT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA DURING EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE DUE TO LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITHIN THE OCCLUDED
FRONT WHICH WILL BE CARRIED EASTWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON. A LOCALIZED
BUT PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN HELP DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS
AND PRODUCE A DECREASING CLOUD TREND DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL COUNTER RADIATIONAL COOLING TENDENCY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR LOWS AROUND 30 BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ATTENTION IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STILL
SLOWLY DRIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW
THIS MATURE AND OCCLUDED SYSTEM BEGINNING TO EXIT THE PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IT WILL HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AND WILL
BEGIN FILLING BACK IN AS IT TRACKS FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI TO LAKE
ERIE...THEN NE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER ON THURSDAY. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND DIVING INTO THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE A WEAK SFC LOW. SO
INSTEAD OF DEALING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DEFORMATION ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT LOOKED 24 HOURS AGO...IT NOW APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM A WEAK ELEVATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THE
MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND DEFORMATION. THE SURGE OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL HAVE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO WORK THROUGH...RESIDUAL FROM
THE DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY...SO MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. NEXT QUESTION IS PTYPE. WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION
THE WARMER AIR WILL LINGER LONGER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW.
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY.
AT SOME POINT IN THE EVENING WE MAY START SEEING SNOW MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN AS THE COLUMN COOLS TO BELOW 0C DOWN TO ABOUT A THOUSAND
FEET. FURTHER BL COOLING WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIP CEASES. ONE THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE
ANY LAKE EFFECT CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE MI BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO
AN END. COULD GET A MESOSCALE BAND TO SET UP SOUTH OF M59 WHICH
COULD INCREASE RATES AND ACCUMULATIONS OVER THAT AREA. NOT THE
STRONGEST LAKE EFFECT SIGNAL BUT STILL THERE NONE THE LESS. IT
WILL ALSO BE A SHORT DURATION EVENT IF IT OCCURS AS RIDGING AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT IS QUICK TO WORK IN BY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE
POSSIBLE SNOW DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPACTFUL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY
WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 SO NOT EXPECTING A RAPID FREEZE OF LINGERING
PUDDLES ON ROADWAYS.
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REALIGN WITH A DOMINATE WEST
COAST TROUGH AND VERY AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONTINENTAL RIDGE WITH THE
POLAR JET LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN
WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES KEEPING TEMPS A BIT MILDER IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER. AN ELEVATED COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT SHOULD
REMAIN DISCONNECTED FROM THE SFC BY THE DOMINATE RIDGE. PRETTY QUIET
WEATHER WISE FOR THE COMING WEEK.
MARINE...
A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL WORK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO FLUCTUATE AS
FRONTS AND THE LOWS THEMSELVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY WE
HAVE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FIRST LOW. THE WINDS WILL REACH BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WHICH
WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE SHORE OF THE NORTHERN THUMB TODAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MARGINAL SETUP AS WAVES
NEAR CRITERIA LEVEL. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE HURON
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A
SECONDARY SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK
AS THIS LOW TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
542 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW
SUPPORTED A BAND OF MAINLY RAIN THROUGH NRN UPPER MI AS AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER PERSISTED WITH 925-850 MB WAA. WITH SFC TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST AT OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...THE
RAIN HAS RESULTED IN ICY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. THE NEXT
BATCH OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN AREA OF 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL AND SE WI.
TODAY...AFTER THE INITIAL ROUND OF PCPN...THERE MAY BE LULL BEFORE
PCPN INCREASES AGAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 14Z-18Z AS AN AREA OF STRONG 800-600
MB FGEN ADVANCES THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TEMP
PROFILE WILL FAVOR MAINLY SNOW AS COLDER AIR ELIMINATES THE WARM
LAYER. WITH QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 INCH AND RELATIVELY LOW SLR
VALUES IN THE 8/1-10/1 RANGE SNOWFALL AMONTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF
MQT-IMT.
TONIGHT...WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN...POPS WILL DIMINISH WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
DEAPRTS...EXCEPT FROM IWD-CMX-P59...EXPECT -DZ TO -FZDZ AS SFC TEMPS
DROP. WITH THE SFC TROUGH REMAINING OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...NO
ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED AS LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAIL.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST WILL REMAIN LESSTHAN A HALF
INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
EXPECT A SLOW AND STEADY WARMUP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE 500MB LOW OVER THE SE HALF
OF WI...AND AN ELONGATED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM SE WI AND S LAKE MI
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AS THE DAY ROLLS
ON THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT E...LINGERING OVER
FAR E LAKE SUPERIOR AND E LOWER MI BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE FOCUS FOR
LINGERING PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO W UPPER MI AND WEAKEN. FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE N-NNW WINDS DO NOT COME INTO PLAY UNTIL 21Z. EVEN THEN 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY COLD AT -4 TO -5C AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
TRAPPED BELOW 800MB AND DIMINISHING. THE DGZ IS WAY UP AROUND 600MB.
CAN/T RULE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW AROUND IWD...BUT OTHER
LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPECT LESS. INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL TO
AROUND 900MB BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED
ICE CRYSTALS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE W HALF...INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER TAKING
HOLD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF NOTE...WHERE THE E COULD GET
CLIPPED BY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MORE OF A MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK WELL TO OUR N /ACROSS
HUDSON BAY/...TEMPORARILY SUPPRESSING THE SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR E...FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AIR
TO SURGE INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN LOW. EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SATURDAY /WARMEST OVER THE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB IS PROVING TO BE QUITE
RESILIENT. SO EVEN THOUGH SOME PATCHY -RA...AND PSBLY SOME
-FZRA...WL ARRIVE EARLY THIS MRNG AS LO PRES TO THE SW DRAWS CLOSER
WITH DEEPER MSTR ALOFT...SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOWER CIGS
AND VSBYS FM PREVIOUS FCST. BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
THE SITES BY 12Z. AS FALLING PCPN UNDER SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING
SATURATES THE LLVLS AND THE PTYPE CHANGES PRIMARILY TO SN...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR ON TUE MRNG...EARLIEST AT IWD WHERE
THE CHANGE TO SN WL HAPPEN FASTER. IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS
WL THEN PREVAIL THRU TUE EVNG WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR. BEST CHC FOR
SOME IMPROVEMENT WL BE LATER IN THE EVNG AT SAW...WHEN SOME DRYING
WL ARRIVE FM THE SW ON THE SRN FLANK OF LO PRES DEPARTING INTO
ONTARIO.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 542 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
ESE WINDS TO 30 KNOTS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS A TROUGH
WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
BELOW 20 KNOTS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH WED NIGHT. SW WINDS TO 30
KNOTS VEERING TO THE WEST AND NW ARE POSSIBLE THU AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
25 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
525 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW
SUPPORTED A BAND OF MAINLY RAIN THROUGH NRN UPPER MI AS AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER PERSISTED WITH 925-850 MB WAA. WITH SFC TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST AT OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...THE
RAIN HAS RESULTED IN ICY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. THE NEXT
BATCH OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN AREA OF 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL AND SE WI.
TODAY...AFTER THE INITIAL ROUND OF PCPN...THERE MAY BE LULL BEFORE
PCPN INCREASES AGAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 14Z-18Z AS AN AREA OF STRONG 800-600
MB FGEN ADVANCES THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TEMP
PROFILE WILL FAVOR MAINLY SNOW AS COLDER AIR ELIMINATES THE WARM
LAYER. WITH QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 INCH AND RELATIVELY LOW SLR
VALUES IN THE 8/1-10/1 RANGE SNOWFALL AMONTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF
MQT-IMT.
TONIGHT...WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN...POPS WILL DIMINISH WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
DEAPRTS...EXCEPT FROM IWD-CMX-P59...EXPECT -DZ TO -FZDZ AS SFC TEMPS
DROP. WITH THE SFC TROUGH REMAINING OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...NO
ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED AS LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAIL.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST WILL REMAIN LESSTHAN A HALF
INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
EXPECT A SLOW AND STEADY WARMUP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE 500MB LOW OVER THE SE HALF
OF WI...AND AN ELONGATED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM SE WI AND S LAKE MI
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AS THE DAY ROLLS
ON THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT E...LINGERING OVER
FAR E LAKE SUPERIOR AND E LOWER MI BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE FOCUS FOR
LINGERING PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO W UPPER MI AND WEAKEN. FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE N-NNW WINDS DO NOT COME INTO PLAY UNTIL 21Z. EVEN THEN 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY COLD AT -4 TO -5C AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
TRAPPED BELOW 800MB AND DIMINISHING. THE DGZ IS WAY UP AROUND 600MB.
CAN/T RULE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW AROUND IWD...BUT OTHER
LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPECT LESS. INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL TO
AROUND 900MB BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED
ICE CRYSTALS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE W HALF...INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER TAKING
HOLD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF NOTE...WHERE THE E COULD GET
CLIPPED BY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MORE OF A MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK WELL TO OUR N /ACROSS
HUDSON BAY/...TEMPORARILY SUPPRESSING THE SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR E...FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AIR
TO SURGE INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN LOW. EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SATURDAY /WARMEST OVER THE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB IS PROVING TO BE QUITE
RESILIENT. SO EVEN THOUGH SOME PATCHY -RA...AND PSBLY SOME
-FZRA...WL ARRIVE EARLY THIS MRNG AS LO PRES TO THE SW DRAWS CLOSER
WITH DEEPER MSTR ALOFT...SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOWER CIGS
AND VSBYS FM PREVIOUS FCST. BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
THE SITES BY 12Z. AS FALLING PCPN UNDER SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING
SATURATES THE LLVLS AND THE PTYPE CHANGES PRIMARILY TO SN...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR ON TUE MRNG...EARLIEST AT IWD WHERE
THE CHANGE TO SN WL HAPPEN FASTER. IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS
WL THEN PREVAIL THRU TUE EVNG WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR. BEST CHC FOR
SOME IMPROVEMENT WL BE LATER IN THE EVNG AT SAW...WHEN SOME DRYING
WL ARRIVE FM THE SW ON THE SRN FLANK OF LO PRES DEPARTING INTO
ONTARIO.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015
NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THEY DO GET
UP TO 30 KNOTS A FEW TIMES. THE FIRST PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WOULD
BE TUESDAY AS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NEXT PERIOD FOR STRONGER WINDS UP TO 30
KNOTS WOULD BE FOR THU AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS OVER HUDSON BAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
557 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS POSITIONED IN
SOUTHWEST MN NEAR MARSHALL. THE DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM WAS BACK ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EXTENDING
TOWARD NORTHWESTER MN. THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH THE
WINTER STORM HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM MARSHALL...THROUGH ST. CLOUD TOWARD
DULUTH...THE BAND WILL EVENTUALLY SWING EAST PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WORK ITS WAY
EAST TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR 1-2" ACCUMULATIONS FROM THAT BAND
WILL BE IN THE GREATER ALEXANDRIA AREA. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ON AND OFF DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY AS THE
MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES WORKING IN AND SHUTS OFF AND ABILITY
FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN
CONSISTENT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING ISSUES TODAY...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY IN WEST CENTRAL MN.
AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MN...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE MARGINAL IN THE 10-
20MPH RANGE ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW BAND IN THE
ADVISORY AREA MAY PRODUCE INTERMITTENT MODERATE SNOW RATES AND WITH
THE MARGINAL WIND COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AND THAT BAND WORK ACROSS EASTERN MN AS IT WEAKENED
TONIGHT. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON
WEDNESDAY... THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MILD AND DRY. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHIFTING THE JET STREAM NORTH...
AND KEEPING WHAT COLD AIR THERE IS TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. WITH FLOW MAINLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD... MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR AREA IS MINIMAL
WITH THINGS BEING SCOURED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WEST.
AS A RESULT... NO PCPN IS MENTIONED AFTER WEDNESDAY. A QUICK LOOK
AT THE CFS SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST THE THIRD WEEK OF THE MONTH... WITH EVEN THE COOLEST
MEMBERS OF THE CFS ENSEMBLE ONLY MANAGING TO COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD AND MOVING DIRECTLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA...WE WILL CONTEND WITH IFR AND SOME LIFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND
SNOW WORKING INTO WESTERN MN TONIGHT AND PROGRESSING EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY FOR MSP/RNH/EAU...BUT WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC BASED
ON THE LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS THE AREA.
KMSP...SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN THE CIGS IN FAR SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT GENERALLY EXPECT IFR AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PERIODICALLY
BOUNCING TO MVFR. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING NOT EXPECTING ANY
ICING PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW AROUND 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ041>045-047>050-054>057-064.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1010 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE AREA PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...SEVERAL OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
RELATIVE GAP IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AFTER FIRST
IMPULSE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MINOR SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES TO THE
EAST. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE HOURLY POP TRENDS BY
USING SMOOTHED GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY. LOOKS
LIKE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ALL OF NEPA WILL EXPERIENCE
THE LEAST AMOUNT OF DRY TIME TODAY AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MAIN
RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO SURGE TOWARD THAT PART OF THE
AREA...WHILE THE FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS SHOULD BE
MAINLY OUT OF THE PRECIP. PATCHY DRIZZLE STILL POSSIBLE IN MOST
AREAS THAT LOSE THE STEADY RAIN, THOUGH. A MILD DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE THROUGH THE 40S.
625 AM UPDATE...WILL ALLOW THE FZRA ADV TO EXPIRE AT 7AM AS
MESONET SITES IN THE ADV AREA ONLY SHOW A FEW SITES REMAINING
AT 32 DEGREES AND WITH DEW POINTS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF SFC
TEMPS EXPECT ONLY A FEW POCKET OF FZRA WILL REMAIN AFTER 7AM AND
THIS WILL ONLY LAST FOR ANOTHER HOUR.
PREVIOUS DISC...
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM FOR DELAWARE,
OTSEGO, CHENANGO, MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES, AS A FEW LOCATIONS
STILL HAVE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING. ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIGHT
AND SHORT LIVED AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE WHICH LIMITS
THE AMOUNT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SFC
LOW PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGHEST POPS AND GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
OVER NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER WITH LESS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST TO
AROUND 50 IN THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES PUSHES A SFC OCCLUSION
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CAT
POPS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES IN THE TN VALLEY WILL
LIFT NE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN PA AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL SPREAD
ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NE
PA, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND THE LOCAL BGM AREA. WED WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MILD WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TOTAL RAINFALL
FROM TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE .50-.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO 1.0-1.50 INCHES
ACROSS NE PA AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS THE EVENT IS SPREAD ACROSS 36-48 HOURS AND MAIN
STEM RIVERS ARE LOW.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SFC LOW PRES MOVES INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES A COOLER NW FLOW WILL FOLLOW
WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH LIKELY POPS SE OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. T85 ONLY DROPS TO -6C SO SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. MINOR SNOW ACCUMS MAY OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AS THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
ANOTHER NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE UPON US IN THE EXTENDED.
PRECIP CONCERNS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED OTHERWISE WE ARE
LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR
FRIDAY, 850 TEMPS OF -6 TO -7C SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WITH LAKE
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR SOME SCT. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
OVER CNY. WE ARE MOIST UP THROUGH 5KFT, BUT LAKE PARAMETERS ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. WHILE SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
DAY FRIDAY, BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM BY AFTERNOON TO KEEP
ANYTHING FALLING MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
BEYOND ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED. 500 HEIGHTS
APPROACH 576 DM AND IN RESPONSE 850 TEMPS CLIMB TO +6C. THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR TEMPS INTO THE 50S, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF RAIN,
DOESN`T LOOK TO BE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KBGM AND KELM.
ONE AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID
MORNING. MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS, BUT IFR WILL STILL HANG ON
TOUGH AT KBGM AND KELM. ELSEWHERE A WIND FLOW VEERING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THE RULE, WITH VFR POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE MORNING.
AFTER A LULL IN RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT TOWARD VFR POSSIBLE (OUTSIDE OF KELM AND KBGM), A NEW
AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AGAIN WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS MOST LIKELY, BUT IFR
STILL POSSIBLE AT KBGM AND IN HEAVIER AREAS OF RAIN.
THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FOR LLWS. FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON WINDS AROUND 2,000 FEET WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST UP TO AROUND 40 KTS. LLWS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THROUGH
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY, IN LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN.
THU...MOSTLY VFR, BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NY.
FRI/SAT...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...JAB/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
954 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND BUILDS
OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM TUESDAY...PATCHY SHOWERS AFFECTING CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AT MID-MORNING. LATEST 3KM HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON RADAR COVERAGE...BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO FORECAST AS WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HOLDS MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH WARM FRONT N OF AREA AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM W ACROSS
MTNS. MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS ISSUANCE WAS TO INCREASE POPS ALONG
COAST WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE PRODUCING SCT SHOWERS AND PSBLY
ISOLATED TSTM. KEPT POPS 20-40% LATE TONIGHT...HIGHEST ALONG OBX.
MIN TEMPS MAINLY 55-60...WITH SLIGHT WARMING TREND INDICATED LATE
PER MOS GDNC.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE IN THE
1000-850 MB LAYER MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. HAVE REDONE THE POPS...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN TO 40-50 MOST OF THE
REMAINDER...WITH A STRIP OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. INSTABILITY INDICES SHOW -1 TO -2 LI`S
GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM OREGON INLET TO MOREHEAD CITY SO
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. FOR 18Z-00Z THE SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-STATE AREA. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT.
INSTABILITY INDICES POOR SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST 06Z-12Z WITH SHOWERS ENDING QUICKLY BEHIND
IT. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
MODELS SHOW UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WHICH COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THESE MARINE ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR AT KEWN AND KOAJ
PAST HOUR BUT IFR PERSISTING KPGV AND KISO. EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP AT KEWN AND KOAJ NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN BACK UP TO VFR
DURING AFTN. INLAND SITES GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR BUT LIKELY
PERSISTING THROUGH AFTN. LIGHT SRLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS N...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...SUB-VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS END BY LATE WED EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. VFR/DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...THEN
NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT N/NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS AT MID-
MORNING. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET WITH A DOWNWARD TREND. WILL
ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM AS DIAMOND BUOY CURRENTLY AT 5.6 FEET
AND FALLING. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS AREA BY
EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING S-SW AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE
TONIGHT.
LINGERING 4-6 FT SEAS OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE MORNING...AND DROP TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR THE
FORECAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE WATERS BY 12Z THURSDAY. SMALL
CRAFT SEAS FORECAST NORTH OF OCRACOKE THURSDAY IN POST-FRONTAL
SURGE...WHICH SUBSIDES THURSDAY EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE SW-NE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY IN
THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AS OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP IN BETWEEN HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...CTC/JBM/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
952 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
RADAR IS SHOWING TWO BANDS OF SNOW THIS MORNING. THE FIRST THIN
BAND EXTENDS FROM LAKE OF THE WOODS TO GRAND FORKS TO NEW
ROCKFORD. IT WAS SNOWING FAIRLY HEAVILY AT THE NWS OFFICE IN
GRAND FORKS A FEW MINUTES AGO BUT HAS SINCE JUST ABOUT STOPPED.
THE BAND APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AND WEST OF THE OFFICE.
THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND
BE ABOUT DONE. MORE CONCERNED WITH THE SECOND BAND THAT EXTENDS
FROM NEAR KDLH TO KPKD/KDTL. THINK THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE BACK INTO THESE AREAS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES IT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW FROM KPKD TO KFFM.
AS FAR AS SNOW TOTALS SO FAR...IT SEEMS LIKE IF YOU SAW SNOW YOU
PICKED UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OR SO. THEN THERE WAS A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NO OR LITTLE SNOW. THIS CUTOFF SEEMS TO BE WEST OF A LINE FROM
HALLOCK MN TO AROUND KDVL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
SNOW AMOUNTS AND TIMING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WRAP
AROUND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SD AND
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SNOW BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AND ANOTHER
JUST ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE
A DECENT HANDLE ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON AND THEY BOTH HAVE THE
SNOW BANDS MOVING ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH AND THEN DECREASING IN
INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING
FOR THE SNOW BANDS...AND BUMPED UP AMOUNTS A BIT OVER THE
COOPERSTOWN TO MAYVILLE TO FOSSTON AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OVERALL...MOST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
BOTH THE HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SNOW
BAND SETTING UP LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THIS
SEEMS TO BE FROM SOME 700MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT GETS GOING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
MODELS ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON KEEPING SOME SNOWFALL GOING
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE QPF MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME GOOD LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE
-15 C ZONE OVER THE PARK RAPIDS AREA. THINK THAT ANOTHER 2 TO 3
INCHES ON TOP OF WHAT ALREADY FELL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
THUS...EXTENDED THE ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SFC LOW. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS CUT OFF SYSTEM.
STILL...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH 20S IN THE EAST
WITH CLOUDS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST SNOW ENDS UP BUT FOR NOW KEPT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
QUIET AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
CIGS ARE MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR AND THE MAIN RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN TO
VISIBILITY. SNOW BANDS TRAVELING THROUGH HAVE BROUGHT VIS DOWN TO
1-2SM AT TIMES...WITH SOME 3-5SM IN THE LIGHTER SNOW OUTSIDE THE
MAIN BANDS. THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OVER
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE TAF SITES
TO IMPROVE IN VISIBILITY AND CIGS SHOULD GO UP TO VFR BY THIS
EVENING. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME CLEARING FOR ALL BUT KBJI BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TODAY...THEN DIMINISH DOWN BELOW 10 KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ024-
026>030-038-039-049-052.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ017-
024-027>032-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ001>003-013>016-022-023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/WJB
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CWA...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO FIT RADAR TRENDS. CONTINUED TO
KEEP HIGH POPS GOING AND WILL TRANSITION THE MAIN BAND TO OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SEEM ON TRACK TO
GET ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BEFORE THE ACTIVITY TAPERS
OFF TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
SNOW AMOUNTS AND TIMING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WRAP
AROUND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SD AND
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SNOW BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AND ANOTHER
JUST ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE
A DECENT HANDLE ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON AND THEY BOTH HAVE THE
SNOW BANDS MOVING ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH AND THEN DECREASING IN
INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING
FOR THE SNOW BANDS...AND BUMPED UP AMOUNTS A BIT OVER THE
COOPERSTOWN TO MAYVILLE TO FOSSTON AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OVERALL...MOST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
BOTH THE HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SNOW
BAND SETTING UP LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THIS
SEEMS TO BE FROM SOME 700MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT GETS GOING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
MODELS ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON KEEPING SOME SNOWFALL GOING
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE QPF MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME GOOD LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE
-15 C ZONE OVER THE PARK RAPIDS AREA. THINK THAT ANOTHER 2 TO 3
INCHES ON TOP OF WHAT ALREADY FELL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
THUS...EXTENDED THE ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SFC LOW. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS CUT OFF SYSTEM.
STILL...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH 20S IN THE EAST
WITH CLOUDS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST SNOW ENDS UP BUT FOR NOW KEPT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
QUIET AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
CIGS ARE MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR AND THE MAIN RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN TO
VISIBILITY. SNOW BANDS TRAVELING THROUGH HAVE BROUGHT VIS DOWN TO
1-2SM AT TIMES...WITH SOME 3-5SM IN THE LIGHTER SNOW OUTSIDE THE
MAIN BANDS. THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OVER
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE TAF SITES
TO IMPROVE IN VISIBILITY AND CIGS SHOULD GO UP TO VFR BY THIS
EVENING. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME CLEARING FOR ALL BUT KBJI BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TODAY...THEN DIMINISH DOWN BELOW 10 KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ024-
026>030-038-039-049-052.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ017-
024-027>032-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ001>003-013>016-022-023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/WJB
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
957 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG
SIGNIFICANTLY AND CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND
ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN COME TO
AN END AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING MOVING INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EAST AND REMAIN
STEADY STATE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL DROP ALL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL ALSO STILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES AT
GLACIAL SPEED. HAVE HUNG ON TO POPS A BIT LONGER ACROSS THESE
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FRONT
SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE CWA BRINGING IN DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA (PWATS AROUND 0.35"). CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN (ESP
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE FIRST) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ALSO TAKE A NOSE DIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING 850 TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 2 DEGREES C
WILL FALL TO NEAR -6 DEGREES C WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS START
TO SATURATE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DESCENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS MUCH
COLDER 850 TEMPS MOVE INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FARTHER NORTH WHERE NOW IT HAS SHIFTED
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
APPEARS TO HAVE A SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY RAP AROUND AND SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
BURLINGTON SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS NOW HIGHLIGTING OUR AREA FOR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (ON ALL THE NAM... GFS... AND EURO). FOR
NOW HAVE JUST TRENDED POPS IN THIS DIRECTION.
THURSDAY MORNING ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SKIES
WILL ALSO SLOWLY CLEAR THURSDAY LEAVING HIGH TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID
40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUNNY SKIES.
BY MONDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. MODELS DIFFER HERE ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
PIECE OF ENERGY BUT DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIP. FOR
NOW HAVE SCALED BACK POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 71...WITH MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS
FARTHER TO THE WEST. THE MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY
THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS THROUGH THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR
TO LIFR UNTIL THE FROPA AND THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT UP INTO
MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD THEN WORK IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SOME WRAP
AROUND CLOUDS BEGIN TO WORK BACK IN FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE END
OF THE 30 HOUR KCVG TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
656 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
LAG SIGNIFICANTLY AND CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SECOND SURGE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OFF TO OUR
EAST. THIS PRECIP APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING
JET JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BEING REPORTED IN THE CELLS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
LOOKING AT BOUNDARY LAYER LI FROM THE NAM THERE ARE NEGATIVE
VALUES. NORTH OF THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION THERE IS SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG. GIVEN HOW PATCHY THE FOG HAS BEEN HAVE ELECTED TO STICK
WITH AN SPS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TO SEE IF A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.
THIS SECONDARY BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL THEN HEAD OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE INDIANA/ OHIO STATE
LINE AROUND 10 AM. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL START TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
(SUCH AS SCIOTO). THIS MAKES SENSE AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGS BACK. TEMPORARY
CLEARING WILL ALSO COMMENCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL ALSO STILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES AT
GLACIAL SPEED. HAVE HUNG ON TO POPS A BIT LONGER ACROSS THESE
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FRONT
SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE CWA BRINGING IN DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA (PWATS AROUND 0.35"). CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN (ESP
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE FIRST) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ALSO TAKE A NOSE DIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING 850 TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 2 DEGREES C
WILL FALL TO NEAR -6 DEGREES C WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS START
TO SATURATE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DESCENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS MUCH
COLDER 850 TEMPS MOVE INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FARTHER NORTH WHERE NOW IT HAS SHIFTED
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
APPEARS TO HAVE A SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY RAP AROUND AND SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
BURLINGTON SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS NOW HIGHLIGTING OUR AREA FOR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (ON ALL THE NAM... GFS... AND EURO). FOR
NOW HAVE JUST TRENDED POPS IN THIS DIRECTION.
THURSDAY MORNING ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SKIES
WILL ALSO SLOWLY CLEAR THURSDAY LEAVING HIGH TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID
40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUNNY SKIES.
BY MONDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. MODELS DIFFER HERE ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
PIECE OF ENERGY BUT DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIP. FOR
NOW HAVE SCALED BACK POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 71...WITH MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS
FARTHER TO THE WEST. THE MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY
THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS THROUGH THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR
TO LIFR UNTIL THE FROPA AND THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT UP INTO
MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD THEN WORK IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SOME WRAP
AROUND CLOUDS BEGIN TO WORK BACK IN FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE END
OF THE 30 HOUR KCVG TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
620 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.AVIATION...
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST HOUR AT HBR AND
CSM AS LOW CLOUDS (2K FT. CEILINGS) HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PART OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. STILL A CHANCE VERY LOW
CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG WITH LOW VISIBILITY AS
THE STRATUS MOVES NORTHEAST.
AT OKC/OUN SCATTERED VERY LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM CLOSE
TO SUNRISE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14-15Z.
...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS GAG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS MORNING...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE VISIBILITY REPORTS
RANGE FROM 1/4 TO A 1/2 MILE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING...SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR. THE
CURRENT FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT RAP
SOUNDINGS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...PERHAPS INTO THE OKC AREA.
THE CORE OF A VERY STRONG UPPER JET (150-160 KNOTS) WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...AS A MID/UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
SOUTHWEST-WEST TO NORTHWEST. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE RATHER WEAK...BUT MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES...ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE EC IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. A WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PART OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE RATHER
LOW (LESS THAN 1/8- 1/4 INCH).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 51 29 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 50 28 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 54 30 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 49 24 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 50 28 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 53 32 53 35 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
OKZ014>017-021>023-033>038.
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ083>085.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
721 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
THE FOG RETREATED QUICKLY TO THE EAST BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM. CALLS
OUT TO DICKENS AND ASPERMONT INDICATE THE FOG IS NOT DENSE IN
THOSE AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY REPORTED AT SNYDER
SUGGESTS THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY STILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT TAF FOR THE FIRST 3 OR 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
PATCHY DENSE FOG ROLLS IN AND OUT OF KLBB...AND POSSIBLY KPVW AND
KCDS AS WELL...CREATING SHORT PERIODS OF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS.
THE FOG WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT
PATCHY FOG COULD RETURN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM CONCERNS THE BROAD AREA OF
FOG...DENSE AT TIMES...COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS FAIRLY WELL...AND
BOTH SUGGEST THE FOG WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND ALSO THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. OUR DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 9
AM AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND IT AN HOUR OR TWO
FOR SOME COUNTIES.
AFTER THE FOG BREAKS...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP INTO THE 50S
THIS AFTERNOON...JUST SHY OF AVERAGE HIGHS. WEST WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT...AND THE SWATH OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY RUNNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH OUR SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY EVENING.
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WORKING THROUGH
THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING
IN SOME COLDER AIR AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT THE
AIRMASS SHOULD BE PRETTY DRY AND WE DON/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...
A WELL-DESERVED RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY IS FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN ENTER THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
REMAIN THE STANDARD SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
RESOLVED OVER THE COMING DAYS...BUT RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER MUTED. HENCE...THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK
TO SQUEEZE OUT WHAT PRECIPITATION IT DOES...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR IT CAN DRAW SOUTHWARD WITH IT...A LITTLE SNOW COULD
MIX IN...AT LEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW TO KICK OFF THE NEW WEEK...THOUGH ANOTHER
QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCE /OR TWO/ COULD FOLLOW BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY DECEMBER WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYS. HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
548 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT TAF FOR THE FIRST 3 OR 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
PATCHY DENSE FOG ROLLS IN AND OUT OF KLBB...AND POSSIBLY KPV AND
KCDS AS WELL...CREATING SHORT PERIODS OF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS.
THE FOG WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT
PATCHY FOG COULD RETURN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM CONCERNS THE BROAD AREA OF
FOG...DENSE AT TIMES...COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS FAIRLY WELL...AND
BOTH SUGGEST THE FOG WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND ALSO THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. OUR DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 9
AM AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND IT AN HOUR OR TWO
FOR SOME COUNTIES.
AFTER THE FOG BREAKS...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP INTO THE 50S
THIS AFTERNOON...JUST SHY OF AVERAGE HIGHS. WEST WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT...AND THE SWATH OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY RUNNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH OUR SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY EVENING.
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WORKING THROUGH
THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING
IN SOME COLDER AIR AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT THE
AIRMASS SHOULD BE PRETTY DRY AND WE DON/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...
A WELL-DESERVED RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY IS FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN ENTER THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
REMAIN THE STANDARD SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
RESOLVED OVER THE COMING DAYS...BUT RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER MUTED. HENCE...THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK
TO SQUEEZE OUT WHAT PRECIPITATION IT DOES...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR IT CAN DRAW SOUTHWARD WITH IT...A LITTLE SNOW COULD
MIX IN...AT LEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW TO KICK OFF THE NEW WEEK...THOUGH ANOTHER
QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCE /OR TWO/ COULD FOLLOW BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY DECEMBER WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYS. HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ024>026-
029>032-034>038-040>044.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
716 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE
DAY AGAIN...BUT WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A SLOW
RISE IN TEMPERATURES. MOIST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A
COUPLE MORE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE RAINFALL
TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A FINAL ROUND OF RAIN BEFORE FINALLY
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND IT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM EST TUESDAY...
LATEST WAVE OF PRECIP OVERRUNNING COLD WEDGE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MORE MODERATE PRECIP RATES
SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF ABOUT THE U.S. 460 LINE AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT
SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY BE LEFT BEHIND SO
ONLY LOWERING POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY SOUTH OF THIS WAVE. ANOTHER
WAVE PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS IN
CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA BY MIDDAY BUT MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. THUS EAST OF ABOUT INTERSTATE 81 MAY SEE ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TIME HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW
RUNOFF ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT BEFORE NEXT WAVE OF
RAIN MOVES IN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING FROM THE WEST.
RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE PRETTY DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP AND
TIMING OF THESE WAVES TODAY IT APPEARS.
MEANWHILE...THE OTHER ISSUE TODAY IS HOW LONG THE WEDGE WILL HANG
ON...AND ALL GUIDANCE INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WITH GOOD
HANDLE ON TERRAIN AND GOOD VERTICAL RESOLUTION SUGGEST IT ERODES
BY MIDDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY AFTERNOON. THIS DUE TO FAIRLY
GOOD SW WINDS AT TOP OF THE WEDGE AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
INTO WEDGE AND LOSS OF DRY ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST AS SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. HARD TO GO TOO STRONGLY
AGAINST THESE HIGH RES...BUT DID LEAN MORE TOWARD COOLER AND
SLOWER EROSION OF WEDGE IN FAR NORTHEAST AREAS SUCH AS LYH...AND
KEEP TEMPS PRETTY STEADY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE
ONLY SLOWLY RISING. NO SUNSHINE EXPECTED BUT BY AFTERNOON THE
CEILINGS WILL LIFT SOMEWHAT WHILE PRECIP TAKES A SHORT BREAK MOST
AREAS...UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY WEST AND
SPREADS EAST BY LATE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...PRECIP INCREASES IN MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL NOT CROSS OVER APPALACHIANS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE GOOD SLUG OF RAINFALL BY
MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...WITH FOCUS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF BLUE
RIDGE...AND CONCERN IS MUCH OF THIS WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL SINCE LATE SUNDAY. THE CURRENT
FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD...WITH ANOTHER ONE AND A HALF TO
TWO INCHES EXPECTED IN PARTS OF NW NC AND FOOTHILL REGION THROUGH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND AT LEAST ONE AND HALF UP THROUGH THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG BLUE RIDGE. THIS COULD EASILY BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SOME STREAMS COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS BY EARLY WED
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO WED. TEMPERATURES TUES NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR MAY EVEN SLOWLY
RISE...ESPECIALLY IN PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE DRIVING A WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE DYNAMIC
FORCING IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS SATURATED THANKS TO SEVERAL DAYS OF
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE
END RESULT WILL BE A BURST OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING ONE
INCH FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO VA FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON
TARGET AND CURRENTLY DO NOT SEE A REASON TO EXPAND THE AREA OF
CONCERN...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEAR TERM RAINFALL TRENDS TO
SEE IF AN EXPANSION BECOMES NECESSARY.
ONCE WE GET BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND GENERATE SOME
UPSLOPE RAIN/TO/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH SOME LOCATION MAY SEE A
DUSTING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND BRING US FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS ANY REMNANTS
OF THE WEDGE VANISH...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S EAST OF THE
RIDGE/MIDDLE 50S WEST WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CONDITIONS
MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER
50S EAST/MIDDLE 40S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...
A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB PATTERN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
BUT OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DIFFER IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION
OF THIS FEATURE. DESPITE THIS WEAKNESS...OVERALL 500MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE
IN THE EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECTED DRY
WEATHER THROUGH DAY 6 THEN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGS A PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM EST TUESDAY...
WITH WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TO MID AFTERNOON...IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF BREAKS TO MVFR CEILINGS AS WEDGE SLOWLY
MIXES OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THAT MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPS CONDITIONS IFR FOR ALL TAF SITES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAT KLYH WILL MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS SINCE THE
WEDGE IS DEEPEST THERE AND MAY NOT MIX AS MUCH UNTIL EVENING...AT
WHICH TIME CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER ONCE AGAIN TO IFR BY 23Z TO 01Z.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN TO THE WEST
BY LATE MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING TO REACH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE RAIN MAY BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO BRING BOTH
CEILINGS AND VSBYS EVEN LOWER TO LIFR LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE HIGH IN WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST
SLOWLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN ABOUT 5 KTS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY BUT AHEAD OF
THAT ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY EXTENDING IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL
FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN NORTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR IN
UPSLOPE AREAS AT KBLF AND KLWB MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURS MORNING
BEHIND FRONT. ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER PATCHY
EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FRI AND
SAT MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS FROM
RECENT RAINFALL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND INCLUDING THE NC FOOTHILLS. THIS
AREA STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE AND A HALF TO
TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
OF THIS REGION...AND ALL ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL GO INTO RUNOFF AT
THIS POINT.
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY RISE ABOVE BANKFULL. LOW WATER
CROSSING AND POOR DRAINING AREAS IN URBAN LOCATIONS MAY BE
FLOODED. TRIBUTARIES THAT FEED INTO THE YADKIN RIVER...THE
HEADWATERS OF THE NEW RIVER...THE ROANOKE...AND THE UPPER DAN
RIVER MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ON THE DAN AND ROANOKE RIVERS WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
VAZ007-009-010-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...KK/SK/WP
HYDROLOGY...KK/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
318 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH AN 850
MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN...THROUGH INDIANA...AND INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS. A TROF RAN FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW WRAP AROUND CLOUDS FROM THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS IOWA WITH SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LITTLE
IF ANY CLOUDS RAN FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
18Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NEAR KRWF. THE MAIN
FRONT RAN EAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THEN SOUTH INTO
OHIO AND THEN MISSISSIPPI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND HIGHER
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
RADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT
WEST OF A FREEPORT TO OTTUMWA LINE. BASED ON RAP TRENDS...THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS GENERALLY WEST OF A KRFD TO KIRK LINE. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE ON THE GRASS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES
ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO THE SNOW SHOULD MELT ON THE ROADS.
THERE MAY BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE NEW SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
WISCONSIN. THE BETTER CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF I-
80 AND ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE A DUSTING.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE NOCTURNAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY IN
THE LATE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD AGAIN BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.
NEW DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE EAST OF I-39. THE QUESTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS WILL THERE BE ANY NEW ACCUMULATION. AT BEST THERE MAY
BE A DUSTING ON THE GRASS OR ELEVATED SURFACES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REACH NEAR 50 THIS WEEKEND.
LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL TURN TO SW FLOW LATE DURING THE WEEK.
MODERATION UNDER THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH THE SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY COULD BE AS HIGH AS 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE MID WEEK.
MID WEEKEND AN ADVANCING MID LEVEL WAVE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND FLOW. HOWEVER...THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE LEADING TO LIMITED
FORECASTABILITY FOR ANY PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND QUIET
WEATHER TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR THROUGH 00Z
AS WRAP AROUND CLOUDS FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH 01Z/02. IF SNOW SHOWERS HIT A TAF SITE IT COULD RESULT IN
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE AFT 06Z/02 THAT MAY RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS. THE
18Z TAFS CARRY VCSH AND WILL BE AMENDED ONCE THE SHSN THREAT IS
BETTER DEFINED.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE SPOTTY IN
CENTRAL IOWA. TRENDS FROM SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ONE NEGATIVE IN PLAY IS THAT THE 0-2KM WINDS ARE
QUITE STRONG WHICH MIGHT PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
AT 3 AM CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR SIOUX FALLS
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. RELATIVELY MILD AIR REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. A W/SW BREEZE WAS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS.
PATCHY DRIZZLE PERSISTED IN FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
PATCHY DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK
FOR A GUSTY W/SW WIND...NEAR 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATED BY BUFR
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS AN IDEAL SET-UP FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THIS SCENARIO HAS SUPPORT FROM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NMM. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS NEAR I-80 MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW
OR RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES. SOME AREAS AFFECTED BY THE SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT PICK UP A LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SUDDEN BURSTS OF SNOW THAT REDUCE VISIBILITY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW INCREASES. AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE
MORNING AS LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/VORTICITY MAX TRACKS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ENHANCED
VORT. LOBE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER-LOW LEADING TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW SFC LOW OVER NE ILLINOIS WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY TRACK INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER-LOW WILL ADVECT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY AND LAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK PVA...AND CONVERGENCE ATTENDANT TO A SUBTLE
SFC PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MODELS ARE PAINTING
QPF OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO. SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE MID MORNING...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...SO
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE.
NAM/NMM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTN...COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES REDEVELOP. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
WITH AN EXTENSION INTO THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS AND
WAA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...850MB TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE BY
APPROXIMATELY 16 C. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON
THURSDAY THEN MID TO UPPER 40S BY FRIDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL
MAKE IT FEEL VERY NICE BY EARLY DECEMBER STANDARDS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MILD/ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS NEAR 552 DAM AND
850MB TEMPS NEAR 5 C. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
POTENTIAL SOUTHWEST U.S. SHORTWAVE MAY REACH THE MIDWEST BY MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THIS FAR OUT. UTTECH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR THROUGH 00Z
AS WRAP AROUND CLOUDS FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH 01Z/02. IF SNOW SHOWERS HIT A TAF SITE IT COULD RESULT IN
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE AFT 06Z/02 THAT MAY RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS. THE
18Z TAFS CARRY VCSH AND WILL BE AMENDED ONCE THE SHSN THREAT IS
BETTER DEFINED.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
216 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WX FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE FROM THE 12Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR. ALSO ADJUSTED T AND
TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING VIA THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AND CURRENT
OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACTIVELY CROSSING CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT SLOWING AS IT COMES EAST. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTING
A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG IT IN ADDITION TO THE BATCH
CURRENTLY DRIFTING OVER FAR EAST PARTS OF THE STATE. THE RAIN HAS
BEEN MODERATELY HEAVY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. ADDITIONAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HEADWATERS OF THE CUMBERLAND TODAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER OUR AREA AND A SFC WAVE RUNS NORTH ALONG IT PER THE LATEST
NAM12 AND HRRR RUNS. CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MILD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CURRENTLY...RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS ARE GENERALLY SOUTH
AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH OR SO. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY AND ADD IN THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS ALONG WITH THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
AN AREA OF STEADIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR LMK. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK INTO OUR AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN EDGE OF KY.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AREA-WIDE FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. DID A QUICK
REFRESH TO THE HOURLY GRIDS. SENT UPDATES TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOWS NO SIGN OF
LETTING UP AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
RIGHT ON THE DOORSTEP. SO THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
STEADIER PRECIP FROM THE SW BUT SHOULDN/T LAST FOR LONG.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AS A
SFC LOW TRACKS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. RAINFALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO LEAD TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS. AND
DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL...ON TOP OF RAINFALL WE HAVE
RECEIVED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW STREAMS OR CREEKS COULD
NEAR BANKFULL DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT EXITS OUR AREA TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 50S THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE 40S BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR
USHERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD AND REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH PW`S AROUND 0.15
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
EACH DAY WITH COLD MORNINGS AND MILD AFTERNOONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE EACH DAY AND POSSIBLY UNDER GUIDANCE
AT NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME SOMETIME AROUND NEXT
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE PATTERN GOING INTO TUESDAY...NOT
WILLING TO BITE ON THIS SYSTEM YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH LOW CIGS AND VIS ALONG
WITH RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT
ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY. THE EASTERN TAF SITES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
REMAIN VFR OR MVFR WHILE ALONG AND BEHIND IT THEY ARE SEEING IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS. EXPECT POOR CONDITIONS TO TAKE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY EVENING WITH VIS AND CIGS QUITE LOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CIGS AND VIS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO
THE STATE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
HIT 15 KTS OR SO.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
210 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WX FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE FROM THE 12Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR. ALSO ADJUSTED T AND
TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING VIA THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AND CURRENT
OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACTIVELY CROSSING CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT SLOWING AS IT COMES EAST. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTING
A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG IT IN ADDITION TO THE BATCH
CURRENTLY DRIFTING OVER FAR EAST PARTS OF THE STATE. THE RAIN HAS
BEEN MODERATELY HEAVY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. ADDITIONAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HEADWATERS OF THE CUMBERLAND TODAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER OUR AREA AND A SFC WAVE RUNS NORTH ALONG IT PER THE LATEST
NAM12 AND HRRR RUNS. CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MILD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CURRENTLY...RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS ARE GENERALLY SOUTH
AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH OR SO. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY AND ADD IN THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS ALONG WITH THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
AN AREA OF STEADIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR LMK. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK INTO OUR AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN EDGE OF KY.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AREA-WIDE FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. DID A QUICK
REFRESH TO THE HOURLY GRIDS. SENT UPDATES TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOWS NO SIGN OF
LETTING UP AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
RIGHT ON THE DOORSTEP. SO THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
STEADIER PRECIP FROM THE SW BUT SHOULDN/T LAST FOR LONG.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AS A
SFC LOW TRACKS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. RAINFALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO LEAD TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS. AND
DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL...ON TOP OF RAINFALL WE HAVE
RECEIVED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW STREAMS OR CREEKS COULD
NEAR BANKFULL DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT EXITS OUR AREA TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 50S THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE 40S BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR
USHERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
A TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE MOIST AS THE COLUMN COOLS...SO HAVE
INCLUDED A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THERE MAY BE
A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MIX IN A FEW FLAKES. DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN TAKE HOLD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING A BIT BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST MORNING...WITH SOME MID 20S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS
POSSIBLE.
A BLOCKY PATTERN THEN SETS UP EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WHILE ANOTHER LOW SEPARATES FROM THE MAIN FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODEL AGREEMENT DETERIORATES
MORE TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THIS PATTERN GRADUALLY BREAKS
DOWN AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED
A SLOWER OUTCOME...WHICH WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
NEARBY. BELOW NORMAL READINGS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY BACK TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH LOW CIGS AND VIS ALONG
WITH RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT
ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY. THE EASTERN TAF SITES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
REMAIN VFR OR MVFR WHILE ALONG AND BEHIND IT THEY ARE SEEING IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS. EXPECT POOR CONDITIONS TO TAKE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY EVENING WITH VIS AND CIGS QUITE LOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CIGS AND VIS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO
THE STATE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
HIT 15 KTS OR SO.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1218 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW
SUPPORTED A BAND OF MAINLY RAIN THROUGH NRN UPPER MI AS AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER PERSISTED WITH 925-850 MB WAA. WITH SFC TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST AT OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...THE
RAIN HAS RESULTED IN ICY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. THE NEXT
BATCH OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN AREA OF 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL AND SE WI.
TODAY...AFTER THE INITIAL ROUND OF PCPN...THERE MAY BE LULL BEFORE
PCPN INCREASES AGAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 14Z-18Z AS AN AREA OF STRONG 800-600
MB FGEN ADVANCES THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TEMP
PROFILE WILL FAVOR MAINLY SNOW AS COLDER AIR ELIMINATES THE WARM
LAYER. WITH QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 INCH AND RELATIVELY LOW SLR
VALUES IN THE 8/1-10/1 RANGE SNOWFALL AMONTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF
MQT-IMT.
TONIGHT...WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN...POPS WILL DIMINISH WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
DEAPRTS...EXCEPT FROM IWD-CMX-P59...EXPECT -DZ TO -FZDZ AS SFC TEMPS
DROP. WITH THE SFC TROUGH REMAINING OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...NO
ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED AS LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAIL.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST WILL REMAIN LESSTHAN A HALF
INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
EXPECT A SLOW AND STEADY WARMUP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE 500MB LOW OVER THE SE HALF
OF WI...AND AN ELONGATED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM SE WI AND S LAKE MI
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AS THE DAY ROLLS
ON THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT E...LINGERING OVER
FAR E LAKE SUPERIOR AND E LOWER MI BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE FOCUS FOR
LINGERING PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO W UPPER MI AND WEAKEN. FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE N-NNW WINDS DO NOT COME INTO PLAY UNTIL 21Z. EVEN THEN 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY COLD AT -4 TO -5C AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
TRAPPED BELOW 800MB AND DIMINISHING. THE DGZ IS WAY UP AROUND 600MB.
CAN/T RULE OUT UP TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW AROUND IWD...BUT OTHER
LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPECT LESS. INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL TO
AROUND 900MB BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED
ICE CRYSTALS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE W HALF...INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER TAKING
HOLD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF NOTE...WHERE THE E COULD GET
CLIPPED BY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MORE OF A MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK WELL TO OUR N /ACROSS
HUDSON BAY/...TEMPORARILY SUPPRESSING THE SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR E...FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AIR
TO SURGE INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN LOW. EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SATURDAY /WARMEST OVER THE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AT SAW...WHEN SOME
DRYING WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE SRN FLANK OF LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING INTO ONTARIO. OTHERWISE CIGS IN THE IFR TO LOW
MVFR RANGE WILL LINGER AT IWD/CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 542 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
ESE WINDS TO 30 KNOTS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS A TROUGH
WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
BELOW 20 KNOTS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH WED NIGHT. SW WINDS TO 30
KNOTS VEERING TO THE WEST AND NW ARE POSSIBLE THU AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
25 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1136 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.AVIATION...
OCCLUDED LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH DIURNAL MIXING HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO AT LEAST IMPROVE
VSBYS. THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION, INITIALLY FORCING CIGS TO RISE TO MVFR
COINCIDENT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO 270 DEGREES FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. EMERGING LIGHT S/SSE FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR PATCHY MVFR FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTER PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
PATTERN OF RAIN SHOWERS EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER ENSURING AN ALL RAIN EVENT. A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL LAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SURFACE
FRONT SWEEPS THE MOISTURE EASTWARD. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SPREAD OVER SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THE
BROAD EXPANSE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE
SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A TEXTBOOK OCCLUSION THAT WILL HAVE A TRIPLE
POINT SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER DURING THE MORNING UNDER
DEEP DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE
OCCLUSION WILL FORCE THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN LEADING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY BY ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST BOOST OF DEFORMATION THAT MAY
RESULT IN A LOCALIZED INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS...MODEL QPF IS ON THE LOW SIDE WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MUTED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND NAM 4KM.
THIS CAN BE EXPLAINED BY THE SHALLOW AND WEAK LAYER OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS THAT RESULTS FROM THE
OTHERWISE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WITHIN THE FAR NE FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. RADAR TRENDS LEADING UP TO PRESS
TIME SUPPORT A BROKEN PATTERN OF LIGHTER SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE
MOISTURE AXIS ROTATES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY RATHER THAN
A SOLID BAND WITH GREATER INTENSITY SUCH AS THAT OBSERVED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AS THE
DRY SLOT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA DURING EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE DUE TO LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITHIN THE OCCLUDED
FRONT WHICH WILL BE CARRIED EASTWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON. A LOCALIZED
BUT PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN HELP DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS
AND PRODUCE A DECREASING CLOUD TREND DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL COUNTER RADIATIONAL COOLING TENDENCY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR LOWS AROUND 30 BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ATTENTION IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STILL
SLOWLY DRIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW
THIS MATURE AND OCCLUDED SYSTEM BEGINNING TO EXIT THE PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IT WILL HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AND WILL
BEGIN FILLING BACK IN AS IT TRACKS FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI TO LAKE
ERIE...THEN NE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER ON THURSDAY. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND DIVING INTO THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE A WEAK SFC LOW. SO
INSTEAD OF DEALING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DEFORMATION ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT LOOKED 24 HOURS AGO...IT NOW APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM A WEAK ELEVATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THE
MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND DEFORMATION. THE SURGE OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL HAVE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO WORK THROUGH...RESIDUAL FROM
THE DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY...SO MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. NEXT QUESTION IS PTYPE. WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION
THE WARMER AIR WILL LINGER LONGER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW.
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY.
AT SOME POINT IN THE EVENING WE MAY START SEEING SNOW MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN AS THE COLUMN COOLS TO BELOW 0C DOWN TO ABOUT A THOUSAND
FEET. FURTHER BL COOLING WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIP CEASES. ONE THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE
ANY LAKE EFFECT CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE MI BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO
AN END. COULD GET A MESOSCALE BAND TO SET UP SOUTH OF M59 WHICH
COULD INCREASE RATES AND ACCUMULATIONS OVER THAT AREA. NOT THE
STRONGEST LAKE EFFECT SIGNAL BUT STILL THERE NONE THE LESS. IT
WILL ALSO BE A SHORT DURATION EVENT IF IT OCCURS AS RIDGING AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT IS QUICK TO WORK IN BY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE
POSSIBLE SNOW DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPACTFUL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY
WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 SO NOT EXPECTING A RAPID FREEZE OF LINGERING
PUDDLES ON ROADWAYS.
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REALIGN WITH A DOMINATE WEST
COAST TROUGH AND VERY AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONTINENTAL RIDGE WITH THE
POLAR JET LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN
WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES KEEPING TEMPS A BIT MILDER IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER. AN ELEVATED COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT SHOULD
REMAIN DISCONNECTED FROM THE SFC BY THE DOMINATE RIDGE. PRETTY QUIET
WEATHER WISE FOR THE COMING WEEK.
MARINE...
A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL WORK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO FLUCTUATE AS
FRONTS AND THE LOWS THEMSELVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY WE
HAVE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FIRST LOW. THE WINDS WILL REACH BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WHICH
WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE SHORE OF THE NORTHERN THUMB TODAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MARGINAL SETUP AS WAVES
NEAR CRITERIA LEVEL. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE HURON
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A
SECONDARY SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK
AS THIS LOW TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
310 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PERSISTENT
BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE CHANGING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE SLOWLY EWD ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A BROADENING SFC LOW EXPANDS EAST INTO
WISCONSIN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS AN AREA OF WEAK MID-
LEVEL F-GEN ACROSS NE MN AIDING IN THE 700-500MB LIFT WHICH HAS
BEEN THE PRIMARY AREA OF FORCING THAT HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE HAS THIS LIFTING
LAYER HANGING AROUND THE ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD
TONIGHT AS THE BAND PIVOTS AND ROTATES EWD. MAY SEE THE SRN EDGE
OF THIS BAND BRUSH THE TWIN PORTS THIS EVENING...AND TRIGGER A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO...WILL
KEEP SRN ST. LOUIS AND CARLTON COUNTY...INCLUDING DULUTH...IN THE
ADVISORY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. A LAYER OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH AND ALLOW
THE COLUMN TO LOSE ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT...BUT KEEP THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS SETUP WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NEAR-SFC TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. ROADS AND OTHER SURFACES WILL LIKELY BE WET OR SNOW
COVERED...WHICH WILL INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SO DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NW WI AND AREAS OF E-CENTRAL MN.
THE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT DZ/FZDZ WILL SWEEP EWD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WED MORNING AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW AND DRIZZLE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND OVER N-CENTRAL WI WED
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER IRON COUNTY IN WISCONSIN AS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SET
IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AND BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
WESTERN MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND THUS CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY THAT
MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FOR THE
SEASON...AVERAGING SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
PERIODS OF VLIFR CONDITIONS AT DULUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
LOCATIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT INL AT 08Z. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT DLH AND HYR. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 31 35 20 36 / 60 20 0 0
INL 23 30 19 36 / 40 0 0 0
BRD 29 35 16 37 / 70 0 0 0
HYR 25 35 18 35 / 20 20 10 0
ASX 28 37 22 38 / 30 30 10 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-
018>021-025-026-035-037.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
316 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
H5 UA ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER
FAR SERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE HAS MIGRATED FROM SERN WYOMING
TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS OF MIDDAY...WV
IMAGERY HAS THIS FEATURE ROUGHLY OVER NWRN IA. HT FALLS DOWNSTREAM
OF THIS FEATURE WERE MOST PRONOUNCED AT THE TWIN CITIES AND THE QUAD
CITIES WITH HT FALLS OF 220 AND 190 METERS RESPECTIVELY...SO THIS
FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS A BROAD SHIELD OF
ALTO STRATUS AND OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD ENHANCEMENT NOTED FROM ROUGHLY VALENTINE TO NEAR
BROKEN BOW. UNDERNEATH THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR FROM
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WAS OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT GIVEN THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS AREA TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST...UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES...RANGED FROM 27 AT AINSWORTH AND VALENTINE...TO 33 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE
END TIMING OF THE SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO TEMPERATURES...MORE SPECIFICALLY HOW
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH A DENSE FRESH SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON...DRAGGING ONE LAST SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE HELPED TO FOCUS A
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS...FROM
VALENTINE SOUTH TOWARD NORTH PLATTE. THE NAM MODEL...AND THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR DID A FINE JOB DEPICTING THIS ENHANCED SNOWBAND
BOTH IN TERMS OF INTENSITY AND LOCATION...THUS THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION. BOTH THE NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOW
THE BAND ERODING IN A COUPLE HOURS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL WEAKER BAND
BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTH INTO CUSTER
COUNTY LATE AFTERNOON. REAL TIME OBSERVING STATIONS AND THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE WEAKENING TREND...YIELDING GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE CURRENT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING...THOUGH
WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. WE WOULD
RATHER SEE HOW THE ADDITIONAL BAND PLAYS OUT BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL
CALL ON WHETHER TO CUT THE ADVISORY EARLY. WHERE THE PRESENT HEAVY
BAND SET UP...WE COULD STILL SEE SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER
TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS AN HALF INCH PER HOUR...BUT AGAIN THAT BAND
IS SLOWLY FALLING APART.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE GOING TO BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND HOW LONG THE NORTHWEST WINDS STAY UP. AT
THIS POINT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CLEARING A FEW HOURS BEFORE
DAWN...AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK...LOW TO MID TEENS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. NOTE GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE
FORECASTING. RISING HEIGHTS WILL ACCOMPANY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SNOWPACK. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MID 30S
OVER THE SNOW AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE TEMPERATURES AND THE THREAT FOR
FOG...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...EVEN
WITH EXPECTED MELTING ON WEDNESDAY...MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SHOULD REMAIN SNOW COVERED. WITH EXPECTED
SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FELT GUIDANCE
WAS WAY OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY THE MAV...AND UNDERCUT BOTH THE MAV
AND MET TEMPS FOR LOWS WEDS NIGHT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE LIGHT
WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS...WENT WITH LOWS EVEN COLDER IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME SINGLE DIGITS WERE INSERTED IN THE GRIDS.
FOR THURSDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT
MIXING. WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE LOWER 40S. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED TO MELT
OFF WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...I DID GO AHEAD AND
LIMIT LOWS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE WESTERN CWA. FURTHER EAST...THE MODELS BEGIN TO INCREASE A
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH TWO
DAYS OF MELTING SNOW...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY MOIST AND
WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE THREAT FOR FOG FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM
AND SREF ARE INDICATIVE OF A FOG THREAT FRIDAY AM...WHILE THE GFS IS
NOT. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FOG MENTION FOR NOW AS THIS IS WELL
INTO THE MID RANGE PERIOD AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE GFS/ECMWF COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SREF/NAM CAMP. ALSO...THERE IS SOME
DOUBT AS TO WINDS FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE NAM HAS SOME DECENT H925
WINDS IN AREAS WHERE THE BL IS NEARLY SATURATED. IF THE WINDS COME
TO FRUITION...THE FOG THREAT MAY BE DIMINISHED. STILL TOO MANY
DOUBTS YET TO INTRODUCE IT IN THE FORECAST.
BEYOND FRIDAY...A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AS ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS ABSENT FROM THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SATURDAY
AS A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL DROP HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SECONDARY DRY TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
LOW THAN AVERAGE CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z
AVIATION FORECAST AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY EJECTS TO THE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA. WRAP-AROUND BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SOUTH THROUGH THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS...AND AT TIMES
ACROSS THE LBF TERMINAL. THE CURRENT SHORT TERM MODELS REVEAL A
GRADUAL END TO THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS DRY AIR IS
PULLED SOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THUS WE ANTICIPATE PERIODIC
REDUCTIONS IN BOTH VISIBILITY AND CEILING AT
KLBF...KVTN...KTIF...KANW...KBBW AND POSSIBLY KONL CONTINUING
INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT WEAKEN BEFORE DAWN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ005>010-026>029-038-094.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
101 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE AREA PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...SEVERAL OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
RELATIVE GAP IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AFTER FIRST
IMPULSE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MINOR SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES TO THE
EAST. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE HOURLY POP TRENDS BY
USING SMOOTHED GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY. LOOKS
LIKE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ALL OF NEPA WILL EXPERIENCE
THE LEAST AMOUNT OF DRY TIME TODAY AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MAIN
RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO SURGE TOWARD THAT PART OF THE
AREA...WHILE THE FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS SHOULD BE
MAINLY OUT OF THE PRECIP. PATCHY DRIZZLE STILL POSSIBLE IN MOST
AREAS THAT LOSE THE STEADY RAIN, THOUGH. A MILD DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE THROUGH THE 40S.
625 AM UPDATE...WILL ALLOW THE FZRA ADV TO EXPIRE AT 7AM AS
MESONET SITES IN THE ADV AREA ONLY SHOW A FEW SITES REMAINING
AT 32 DEGREES AND WITH DEW POINTS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF SFC
TEMPS EXPECT ONLY A FEW POCKET OF FZRA WILL REMAIN AFTER 7AM AND
THIS WILL ONLY LAST FOR ANOTHER HOUR.
PREVIOUS DISC...
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM FOR DELAWARE,
OTSEGO, CHENANGO, MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES, AS A FEW LOCATIONS
STILL HAVE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING. ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIGHT
AND SHORT LIVED AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE WHICH LIMITS
THE AMOUNT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SFC
LOW PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGHEST POPS AND GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
OVER NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER WITH LESS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST TO
AROUND 50 IN THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES PUSHES A SFC OCCLUSION
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CAT
POPS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES IN THE TN VALLEY WILL
LIFT NE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN PA AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL SPREAD
ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NE
PA, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND THE LOCAL BGM AREA. WED WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MILD WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TOTAL RAINFALL
FROM TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE .50-.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO 1.0-1.50 INCHES
ACROSS NE PA AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS THE EVENT IS SPREAD ACROSS 36-48 HOURS AND MAIN
STEM RIVERS ARE LOW.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SFC LOW PRES MOVES INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES A COOLER NW FLOW WILL FOLLOW
WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH LIKELY POPS SE OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. T85 ONLY DROPS TO -6C SO SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. MINOR SNOW ACCUMS MAY OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AS THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
ANOTHER NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE UPON US IN THE EXTENDED.
PRECIP CONCERNS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED OTHERWISE WE ARE
LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR
FRIDAY, 850 TEMPS OF -6 TO -7C SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WITH LAKE
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR SOME SCT. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
OVER CNY. WE ARE MOIST UP THROUGH 5KFT, BUT LAKE PARAMETERS ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. WHILE SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
DAY FRIDAY, BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM BY AFTERNOON TO KEEP
ANYTHING FALLING MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
BEYOND ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED. 500 HEIGHTS
APPROACH 576 DM AND IN RESPONSE 850 TEMPS CLIMB TO +6C. THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR TEMPS INTO THE 50S, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF RAIN,
DOESN`T LOOK TO BE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...
MOSTLY MVFR WITH IFR STILL AT ITH/BGM. SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAYBE A 1K FT CIG RISE. BACK TO IFR/MVFR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STEADY RAIN MOVING IN FROM SW. WITH HEAVIER
RAIN TONIGHT VSBYS AND CIGS COULD DROP TO IFR AT ALL SITES.
THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FOR LLWS. FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON WINDS AROUND 2,000 FEET WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST UP TO AROUND 40 KTS. LLWS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THROUGH
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY TONIGHT.
SFC WINDS E TO SE AT 8 KTS THIS AFTN. TONIGHT SE TO S WINDS AT 5
KTS. WIND SHIFT TUESDAY MORNING TO W OR NW IN NY.
.OUTLOOK...
WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY, IN LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN.
THU...MOSTLY VFR, BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NY.
FRI/SUN...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...JAB/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
302 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND BUILDS
OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...BAND OF SHOWERS EXITING THE OUTER BANKS AT
MID-AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN LATER
TONIGHT...HRRR AND RAP SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TRENDS OF HIGHER
POPS COASTAL SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WITH WINDS VEERING TO SE/S
LATE TONIGHT COUPLED WITH CLOUDS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS MID/UPPER 50S. CONDITIONS FAVOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG PRIOR TO
BETTER MIXING AROUND DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...WARM FRONT TO SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. IN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT CAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG AND LI`S IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH AVERAGE QPF ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LARGELY BY ONE-QUARTER OR LESS...SOME ISOLATED BRIEF
DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM FOR EARLY DECEMBER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 70 TO 75
DEGREES AREA-WIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT DRY WX AND TEMPS NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W THU...THEN
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER WX ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER
TEMPS THU THROUGH TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S/LOW 60S...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. AT
THIS TIME THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING LOOKS THE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING INLAND.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 12Z GFS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING OUT THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE FRI AND SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS MORE RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS ENC. MODELS THEN SHOW
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SE COAST MON
NIGHT AND TUE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER/SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM TUESDAY...A CHALLENGING FORECAST AS GUIDANCE HAS DONE
A POOR JOB PORTRAYING CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
POINTS WEST UNDER IFR/LIFR CIGS. EVEN CENTRAL NC DEALING WITH
IFR/LIFR VSBYS. GIVEN THIS...HAVE USED CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
FORECAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX TO HELP DEPICT THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LOW CIGS TO THE EAST HAVE PLACED
MOST TAF SITES UNDER IFR CRITERIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH EWN
BEING THE LAST TO DROP. CIGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. HAVE MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER LIFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z WITH OAJ BEING THE EXCEPTION FOR
NOW. GIVEN A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG SITUATION...AND WINDS INCREASING
LATER IN THE MORNING...FEEL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND
FOR A BIT AFTER SUNRISE. BY MID-MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE
MIXING OUT WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND FROM THE SOUTH AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUE...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LINGER WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU
THROUGH SUN...THOUGH PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NW TO N AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH SEAS AT 4 TO 5 FEET AT
THE REPORTING PLATFORMS OFFSHORE. AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OFFSHORE...EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO S/SW TOWARD MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND BOTH LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL AND
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATING SEAS BUILDING TO AS MUCH AS 6 FEET
BETWEEN OREGON INLET AND OCRACOKE...HAVE INITIATED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THESE LEGS STARTING TOMORROW MORNING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. FAR SOUTHERN LEG IS MORE MARGINAL...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO LATER ADVISORIES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...WITH GUSTY SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMING NWLY.
GUSTY NW/N FLOW 15-25KT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THU
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-6FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE
PERIOD...MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THU MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THU AND BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODERATE N/NE FLOW...15-25KT...WILL DEVELOP FRI INTO SAT
WITH STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH. LATEST GUIDANCE NOT AS STRONG WITH
THE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOWING THE HIGH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...WILL CONTINUE 15-20KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6FT. SCA
POSSIBLE SAT AND SUN...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR AMZ152-154-156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...LEP/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
255 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND BUILDS
OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...BAND OF SHOWERS EXITING THE OUTER BANKS AT
MID-AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN LATER
TONIGHT...HRRR AND RAP SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TRENDS OF HIGHER
POPS COASTAL SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WITH WINDS VEERING TO SE/S
LATE TONIGHT COUPLED WITH CLOUDS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS MID/UPPER 50S. CONDITIONS FAVOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG PRIOR TO
BETTER MIXING AROUND DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...WARM FRONT TO SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. IN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT CAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG AND LI`S IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH AVERAGE QPF ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LARGELY BY ONE-QUARTER OR LESS...SOME ISOLATED BRIEF
DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM FOR EARLY DECEMBER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 70 TO 75
DEGREES AREA-WIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUE...PREDOMINATE DRY WX AND TEMPS NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W THU...THEN
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER WX ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER
TEMPS THU THROUGH TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S/LOW 60S...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. AT
THIS TIME THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING LOOKS THE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING INLAND.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 12Z GFS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING OUT THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE FRI AND SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS MORE RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS ENC. MODELS THEN SHOW
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SE COAST MON
NIGHT AND TUE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER/SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM TUESDAY...A CHALLENGING FORECAST AS GUIDANCE HAS DONE
A POOR JOB PORTRAYING CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
POINTS WEST UNDER IFR/LIFR CIGS. EVEN CENTRAL NC DEALING WITH
IFR/LIFR VSBYS. GIVEN THIS...HAVE USED CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
FORECAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX TO HELP DEPICT THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LOW CIGS TO THE EAST HAVE PLACED
MOST TAF SITES UNDER IFR CRITERIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH EWN
BEING THE LAST TO DROP. CIGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. HAVE MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER LIFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z WITH OAJ BEING THE EXCEPTION FOR
NOW. GIVEN A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG SITUATION...AND WINDS INCREASING
LATER IN THE MORNING...FEEL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND
FOR A BIT AFTER SUNRISE. BY MID-MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE
MIXING OUT WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND FROM THE SOUTH AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUE...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LINGER WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU
THROUGH SUN...THOUGH PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NW TO N AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH SEAS AT 4 TO 5 FEET AT
THE REPORTING PLATFORMS OFFSHORE. AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OFFSHORE...EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO S/SW TOWARD MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND BOTH LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL AND
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATING SEAS BUILDING TO AS MUCH AS 6 FEET
BETWEEN OREGON INLET AND OCRACOKE...HAVE INITIATED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THESE LEGS STARTING TOMORROW MORNING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. FAR SOUTHERN LEG IS MORE MARGINAL...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO LATER ADVISORIES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...WITH GUSTY SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMING NWLY.
GUSTY NW/N FLOW 15-25KT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THU
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-6FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE
PERIOD...MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THU MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THU AND BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODERATE N/NE FLOW...15-25KT...WILL DEVELOP FRI INTO SAT
WITH STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH. LATEST GUIDANCE NOT AS STRONG WITH
THE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOWING THE HIGH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...WILL CONTINUE 15-20KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6FT. SCA
POSSIBLE SAT AND SUN...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...LEP/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1235 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
FIRST SNOW BAND FROM KBDE TO KGFK TO COOPERSTOWN TOOK A LITTLE
LONGER TO WIND DOWN THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THAT IT IS FINALLY STARTING TO DO SO...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER BAND OF
SNOW REMAINS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KBJI TO KFAR TO LISBON. THIS
BAND WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING AN
INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER TEMPS IN THIS AREA
ARE ALSO FAIRLY MILD OR IN THE 33-34F RANGE. THEREFORE SNOW RATIOS
ARE GOING TO BE 10:1 OR EVEN LOWER...SO THERE COULD BE SPOTS WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH. FROM WEB CAMS IT LOOKS LIKE IF ROADS HAVE BEEN
PLOWED THEY ARE STARTING TO MELT OFF. NOT ENOUGH WIND TODAY TO
PRODUCE ANY DRIFTING SNOW...SO ROAD CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON. AS FAR THE ADVISORY...STILL SEEING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...SO NO PLANS TO CANCEL AT
THIS POINT. MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM MOST IF NOT ALL THE REMAINING
COUNTIES PRIOR TO 4 PM.
FINALLY...SEEING SOME CLEAR SPOTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NW
WITH TEMPS ALREADY AT 36F. WITH SOME SUN STILL POSSIBLE FOR A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUMP UP HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
SNOW AMOUNTS AND TIMING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WRAP
AROUND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SD AND
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SNOW BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AND ANOTHER
JUST ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE
A DECENT HANDLE ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON AND THEY BOTH HAVE THE
SNOW BANDS MOVING ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH AND THEN DECREASING IN
INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING
FOR THE SNOW BANDS...AND BUMPED UP AMOUNTS A BIT OVER THE
COOPERSTOWN TO MAYVILLE TO FOSSTON AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OVERALL...MOST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
BOTH THE HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SNOW
BAND SETTING UP LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THIS
SEEMS TO BE FROM SOME 700MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT GETS GOING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
MODELS ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON KEEPING SOME SNOWFALL GOING
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE QPF MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME GOOD LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE
-15 C ZONE OVER THE PARK RAPIDS AREA. THINK THAT ANOTHER 2 TO 3
INCHES ON TOP OF WHAT ALREADY FELL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
THUS...EXTENDED THE ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SFC LOW. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS CUT OFF SYSTEM.
STILL...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH 20S IN THE EAST
WITH CLOUDS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST SNOW ENDS UP BUT FOR NOW KEPT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
QUIET AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH EXISTING BANDS OF -SN
WHICH DROP CIGS AND VSBY OTHERWISE VSBY GOOD MAINLY VALLEY EAST.
MADE BEST ATTEMPT TO REFLECT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
SNOW BANDS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING FROM NW TO SE. MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR BY MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ024-
026>030-038-039-049-052.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ017-
024-027>032-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ001>003-013>016-022-023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/WJB
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
350 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. ON
WEDNESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OCCLUDED FRONT BISECTING OHIO NORTH TO SOUTH AND WAS JUST EAST OF
KCLE AT 3PM. A WARM FRONT WAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OHIO. LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED INVOF THE FRONT AND TO THE EAST WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA ALSO DRAPED IN FOG. TO THE WEST DRIER AIR WAS
ALREADY MOVING IN. THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST AND EXIT
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGHEST POPS FARTHER EAST AS HRRR SHOWS THIS LIGHT RAIN
EXPANDING A BIT. WILL TAPER POPS WEST WITH KCLE ONLY IN CHANCE CAT
WITH NO POPS WEST OF THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. WITH THE DRIER AIR
MOVING IN TREND WILL ALSO BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING SO WILL HAVE A TREND OF MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY OR THIS
EVENING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR OHIO ZONES. USED GUIDANCE
LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE
SREF IN BRINGING IT ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST BUT
WILL CONTINUE DRY EAST. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS DROP TROUGH THE
DAY...PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
THROUGH THE EVENING HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -4 TO -6C WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION AND THE CENTRAL LAKES. BELIEVE AS
SURFACE TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE EVENING SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO MIX IN
AS MOISTURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. IN THE SNOWBELT HOWEVER DID
CONTINUE TO GO WITH AROUND AN INCH AND MAY BE JUST A BIT MORE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT DEVELOPS. THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN NWRN PA AND CHANCE POPS NERN OHIO.
THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST BUT MOISTURE WILL HANG BACK WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER IN EARLY DECEMBER WILL BE UPON THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BECOME THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE INTO THE WEEKEND. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST PERIOD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. NO REAL STRONG WARM
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BUT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE IN
THE 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR AND LIFR CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF CLEVELAND TO COLUMBUS.
EXPECTING SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE WEST THIS EVENING. ONCE
SUN SETS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN FOG AND STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT ERIE BUT DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY 5 TO 10
KNOTS OF WIND BECOMING SOUTHWEST ELSEWHERE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT ON THE
LAKE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE BY THURSDAY AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT WE
WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY THEN AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
EVENTUALLY FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
103 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG
SIGNIFICANTLY AND CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND
ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN COME TO
AN END AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING MOVING INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EAST AND REMAIN
STEADY STATE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL DROP ALL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL ALSO STILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES AT
GLACIAL SPEED. HAVE HUNG ON TO POPS A BIT LONGER ACROSS THESE
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FRONT
SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE CWA BRINGING IN DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA (PWATS AROUND 0.35"). CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN (ESP
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE FIRST) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ALSO TAKE A NOSE DIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING 850 TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 2 DEGREES C
WILL FALL TO NEAR -6 DEGREES C WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS START
TO SATURATE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DESCENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS MUCH
COLDER 850 TEMPS MOVE INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FARTHER NORTH WHERE NOW IT HAS SHIFTED
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
APPEARS TO HAVE A SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY RAP AROUND AND SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
BURLINGTON SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS NOW HIGHLIGTING OUR AREA FOR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (ON ALL THE NAM... GFS... AND EURO). FOR
NOW HAVE JUST TRENDED POPS IN THIS DIRECTION.
THURSDAY MORNING ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SKIES
WILL ALSO SLOWLY CLEAR THURSDAY LEAVING HIGH TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID
40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUNNY SKIES.
BY MONDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. MODELS DIFFER HERE ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
PIECE OF ENERGY BUT DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIP. FOR
NOW HAVE SCALED BACK POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL LINGER
ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...CEILINGS SHOULD
LIFT TO AROUND 1500 FEET.
FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY ROTATE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. BEFORE THE REGION BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THIS
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AS MVFR CEILINGS BECOME VFR THIS
EVENING/EARLY MORNING...THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
WILL BECOME A CONCERN. THIS POTENTIAL IS BEING SIGNALED BY SEVERAL
MODELS DUE TO WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/CALM AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING NEAR THE SFC (IN ADDITION TO THE DAMP GROUND IN PLACE).
HAVE PLACED THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THE TYPICALLY FOG PRONE
TERMINALS OF KLUK AND KILN...BUT OTHER AIRPORTS SUCH AS KDAY AND
KCVG WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO SEE HOW LOW CONDITIONS MAY BECOME.
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE FARTHER EAST FOR KCMH/KLCK DUE TO A
LINGERING CIRRUS SHIELD. LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID
TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BEING REPLACED BY CONVECTIVE MVFR
CUMULUS/MODERATE CUMULUS. EMBEDDED ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING SFC TROF AXIS AND
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCED SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN SHOWERS
MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER
AIR FITLERS INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1152 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
A SMALL AREA OF VERY LOW CLOUDS AND BR OVER W OK AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TX WILL DRIFT SLOWLY E THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MAKING
IT AS FAR AS THE I-35 AREA BY EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
RAISE THE CEILING LEVELS ONCE THE CLOUD LAYER DRIFTS E OF THE AREA
OF THE RECENT ICE STORM. THE REMAINING ICE AND GROUND MOISTURE IN
THE ICE STORM AREA MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FOG OR LOW CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MINOR WIND
SHIFT AS A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
UPDATE...
STRATUS AND CONTINUED PATCHY FOG IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...ADJUSTED
TEMPS...
DISCUSSION...
AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
INCREASED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
WHERE THIS PERSISTENT COVER HAS LIMITED REBOUNDING TEMPS.
ELSEWHERE... INCREASING SUNSHINE HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 40S. VIS SAT DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING OR DISSIPATING OF STRATUS OVER WESTERN OK... AND OBS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH MESO-GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED... THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTN AS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
TO FORCE IT TO CLEAR OUT FASTER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LINGERING
SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION INTO THE EVENING.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
AVIATION...
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST HOUR AT HBR AND
CSM AS LOW CLOUDS (2K FT. CEILINGS) HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PART OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. STILL A CHANCE VERY LOW
CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG WITH LOW VISIBILITY AS
THE STRATUS MOVES NORTHEAST.
AT OKC/OUN SCATTERED VERY LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM CLOSE
TO SUNRISE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14-15Z.
.LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS GAG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS MORNING...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE VISIBILITY REPORTS
RANGE FROM 1/4 TO A 1/2 MILE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING...SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR. THE
CURRENT FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT RAP
SOUNDINGS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...PERHAPS INTO THE OKC AREA.
THE CORE OF A VERY STRONG UPPER JET (150-160 KNOTS) WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...AS A MID/UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
SOUTHWEST-WEST TO NORTHWEST. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE RATHER WEAK...BUT MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES...ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE EC IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. A WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PART OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE RATHER
LOW (LESS THAN 1/8- 1/4 INCH).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 52 29 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 49 28 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 55 30 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 48 24 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 50 28 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 52 32 53 35 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1057 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.UPDATE...
STRATUS AND CONTINUED PATCHY FOG IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...ADJUSTED
TEMPS...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
INCREASED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
WHERE THIS PERSISTENT COVER HAS LIMITED REBOUNDING TEMPS.
ELSEWHERE... INCREASING SUNSHINE HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 40S. VIS SAT DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING OR DISSIPATING OF STRATUS OVER WESTERN OK... AND OBS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH MESO-GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED... THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTN AS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
TO FORCE IT TO CLEAR OUT FASTER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LINGERING
SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION INTO THE EVENING.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
AVIATION...
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST HOUR AT HBR AND
CSM AS LOW CLOUDS (2K FT. CEILINGS) HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PART OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. STILL A CHANCE VERY LOW
CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG WITH LOW VISIBILITY AS
THE STRATUS MOVES NORTHEAST.
AT OKC/OUN SCATTERED VERY LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM CLOSE
TO SUNRISE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14-15Z.
..LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS GAG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS MORNING...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE VISIBILITY REPORTS
RANGE FROM 1/4 TO A 1/2 MILE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING...SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR. THE
CURRENT FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT RAP
SOUNDINGS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...PERHAPS INTO THE OKC AREA.
THE CORE OF A VERY STRONG UPPER JET (150-160 KNOTS) WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...AS A MID/UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
SOUTHWEST-WEST TO NORTHWEST. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE RATHER WEAK...BUT MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES...ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE EC IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. A WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PART OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE RATHER
LOW (LESS THAN 1/8- 1/4 INCH).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 52 29 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 49 28 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 55 30 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 48 24 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 50 28 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 52 32 53 35 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
232 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
QUIET SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS A DRY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE FOUR CORNER REGION PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
PLACE A WEAK COLD FRONT/DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
CHARACTERIZED WITH LOW TEENS DEWPOINTS TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
AND 30S/40S DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND
BRING SOME STRONGER NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH. DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
BEEN ABLE TO PRECEDE THE FRONT AND THIS HAS ACTED TO INCREASE THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WITH WEAKER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR
THE COASTAL PLAINS. WHILE SOME VIRGA WILL BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LOWER LEVELS PER NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST IT WILL QUITE DIFFICULT FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND. HAVE REMOVED AND WEATHER MENTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AND REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TO ONLY 10% FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH
EVEN LESS VALUES FARTHER WEST.
THE CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL ALLOW FOR
A COOLER MORNING AND HAVE GONE BELOW SUPERBLEND VALUES THAT ARE
MORE IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH LINE UP TOWARDS RAW MAV/MET
MOS. EXPECT A DECENT WARM-UP WEDNESDAY AFTN AS AMPLE SUN COMBINES
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO
UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY AS CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OCCUR. BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
BUT MAY ALSO BE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH ONLY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE COOLEST OF THE PERIOD WITH
LOCALIZED FREEZING POCKETS OCCURRING IN THE HILL COUNTRY. OTHER
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AS CLEAR
SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR NEAR CALM WINDS AIDS A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S.
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PWATS ONLY RECOVER TO 0.5"-0.7" AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IT WILL BE
QUITE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR RAIN CHANCES. HAVE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY TO
THE 10-15% RANGE GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL CONCENSUS OF LITTLE TO NO
RAIN EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER LIKELY CHANCE OF SOME
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE HILL COUNTRY NEXT TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 44 65 41 61 39 / - - 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 40 65 37 61 35 / - - 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 44 65 38 62 37 / - - 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 40 62 37 60 37 / - 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 45 68 39 65 39 / - 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 40 62 37 59 36 / - - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 43 67 36 64 36 / - - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 43 64 38 61 37 / - - 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 46 64 40 61 38 / 10 - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 46 67 38 64 38 / - - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 46 66 40 64 39 / - - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1118 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
.AVIATION...
QUIET TAF PERIOD WITH A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD EARLY. WEST TO NW WINDS
AOB 12 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
UPDATE...
THE FOG RETREATED QUICKLY TO THE EAST BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM. CALLS
OUT TO DICKENS AND ASPERMONT INDICATE THE FOG IS NOT DENSE IN
THOSE AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY REPORTED AT SNYDER
SUGGESTS THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY STILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT TAF FOR THE FIRST 3 OR 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
PATCHY DENSE FOG ROLLS IN AND OUT OF KLBB...AND POSSIBLY KPVW AND
KCDS AS WELL...CREATING SHORT PERIODS OF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS.
THE FOG WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT
PATCHY FOG COULD RETURN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM CONCERNS THE BROAD AREA OF
FOG...DENSE AT TIMES...COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS FAIRLY WELL...AND
BOTH SUGGEST THE FOG WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND ALSO THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. OUR DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 9
AM AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND IT AN HOUR OR TWO
FOR SOME COUNTIES.
AFTER THE FOG BREAKS...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP INTO THE 50S
THIS AFTERNOON...JUST SHY OF AVERAGE HIGHS. WEST WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT...AND THE SWATH OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY RUNNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH OUR SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY EVENING.
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WEAK NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WORKING THROUGH
THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING
IN SOME COLDER AIR AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT THE
AIRMASS SHOULD BE PRETTY DRY AND WE DON/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...
A WELL-DESERVED RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY IS FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN ENTER THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
REMAIN THE STANDARD SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
RESOLVED OVER THE COMING DAYS...BUT RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER MUTED. HENCE...THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK
TO SQUEEZE OUT WHAT PRECIPITATION IT DOES...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR IT CAN DRAW SOUTHWARD WITH IT...A LITTLE SNOW COULD
MIX IN...AT LEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW TO KICK OFF THE NEW WEEK...THOUGH ANOTHER
QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCE /OR TWO/ COULD FOLLOW BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY DECEMBER WITH CHILLY
NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYS. HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/99/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1255 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE
DAY AGAIN...BUT WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A SLOW
RISE IN TEMPERATURES. MOIST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A
COUPLE MORE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE RAINFALL
TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A FINAL ROUND OF RAIN BEFORE FINALLY
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND IT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM EST TUESDAY...
LATEST WAVE OF PRECIP OVERRUNNING COLD WEDGE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MORE MODERATE PRECIP RATES
SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF ABOUT THE U.S. 460 LINE AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT
SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY BE LEFT BEHIND SO
ONLY LOWERING POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY SOUTH OF THIS WAVE. ANOTHER
WAVE PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS IN
CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA BY MIDDAY BUT MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. THUS EAST OF ABOUT INTERSTATE 81 MAY SEE ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TIME HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW
RUNOFF ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT BEFORE NEXT WAVE OF
RAIN MOVES IN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING FROM THE WEST.
RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE PRETTY DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP AND
TIMING OF THESE WAVES TODAY IT APPEARS.
MEANWHILE...THE OTHER ISSUE TODAY IS HOW LONG THE WEDGE WILL HANG
ON...AND ALL GUIDANCE INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WITH GOOD
HANDLE ON TERRAIN AND GOOD VERTICAL RESOLUTION SUGGEST IT ERODES
BY MIDDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY AFTERNOON. THIS DUE TO FAIRLY
GOOD SW WINDS AT TOP OF THE WEDGE AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
INTO WEDGE AND LOSS OF DRY ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST AS SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. HARD TO GO TOO STRONGLY
AGAINST THESE HIGH RES...BUT DID LEAN MORE TOWARD COOLER AND
SLOWER EROSION OF WEDGE IN FAR NORTHEAST AREAS SUCH AS LYH...AND
KEEP TEMPS PRETTY STEADY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE
ONLY SLOWLY RISING. NO SUNSHINE EXPECTED BUT BY AFTERNOON THE
CEILINGS WILL LIFT SOMEWHAT WHILE PRECIP TAKES A SHORT BREAK MOST
AREAS...UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY WEST AND
SPREADS EAST BY LATE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...PRECIP INCREASES IN MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL NOT CROSS OVER APPALACHIANS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE GOOD SLUG OF RAINFALL BY
MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...WITH FOCUS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF BLUE
RIDGE...AND CONCERN IS MUCH OF THIS WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL SINCE LATE SUNDAY. THE CURRENT
FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD...WITH ANOTHER ONE AND A HALF TO
TWO INCHES EXPECTED IN PARTS OF NW NC AND FOOTHILL REGION THROUGH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND AT LEAST ONE AND HALF UP THROUGH THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG BLUE RIDGE. THIS COULD EASILY BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SOME STREAMS COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS BY EARLY WED
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO WED. TEMPERATURES TUES NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR MAY EVEN SLOWLY
RISE...ESPECIALLY IN PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE DRIVING A WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE DYNAMIC
FORCING IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS SATURATED THANKS TO SEVERAL DAYS OF
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE
END RESULT WILL BE A BURST OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING ONE
INCH FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO VA FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON
TARGET AND CURRENTLY DO NOT SEE A REASON TO EXPAND THE AREA OF
CONCERN...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEAR TERM RAINFALL TRENDS TO
SEE IF AN EXPANSION BECOMES NECESSARY.
ONCE WE GET BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND GENERATE SOME
UPSLOPE RAIN/TO/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH SOME LOCATION MAY SEE A
DUSTING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND BRING US FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS ANY REMNANTS
OF THE WEDGE VANISH...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S EAST OF THE
RIDGE/MIDDLE 50S WEST WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CONDITIONS
MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER
50S EAST/MIDDLE 40S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...
A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB PATTERN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
BUT OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DIFFER IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION
OF THIS FEATURE. DESPITE THIS WEAKNESS...OVERALL 500MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE
IN THE EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECTED DRY
WEATHER THROUGH DAY 6 THEN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGS A PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST TUESDAY...
STRONG WEDGE BUT SHALLOW WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR VISIBILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH
00Z/7PM. RAIN WILL AGAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
00Z/7PM WITH CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS LOWERING TO LIFR LEVELS AND
VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO AT LEAST MVFR. HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN
WILL RESULT IN LOWER...LIKELY IFR VISIBILITIES. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE HIGH IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
12Z/7AM ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z ON WEDNESDAY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. CONFIDENCE
LOWER ON HOW FAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT THIS TIME...12Z
MODELS SUGGEST NO IMPROVEMENT TO VFR UNTIL AFTER 18Z/1PM.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY IMPROVE TO IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
AND TO THE EAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR IN UPSLOPE
AREAS AT KBLF AND KLWB WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BEHIND FRONT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER PATCHY EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT MORNING DUE TO MOIST GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND INCLUDING THE NC FOOTHILLS. THIS
AREA STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE AND A HALF TO
TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
OF THIS REGION...AND ALL ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL GO INTO RUNOFF AT
THIS POINT.
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY RISE ABOVE BANKFULL. LOW WATER
CROSSING AND POOR DRAINING AREAS IN URBAN LOCATIONS MAY BE
FLOODED. TRIBUTARIES THAT FEED INTO THE YADKIN RIVER...THE
HEADWATERS OF THE NEW RIVER...THE ROANOKE...AND THE UPPER DAN
RIVER MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ON THE DAN AND ROANOKE RIVERS WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-010-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/SK
HYDROLOGY...KK/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
502 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
ONCE THE SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDS TOMORROW...QUIET AND
MILD EARLY-WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM WL REMAIN SPLIT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
BEYOND...WITH A DOMINANT NRN STREAM ACRS CANADA...AND A WEAKER SRN
STREAM ACROS THE SRN CONUS. ONCE THE GRADUALLY WEAKENING REMNANTS
OF SRN STREAM UPR TROF SHIFT OFF TO THE E LATE TOMORROW...THE
FCST AREA WL PRETTY MUCH REMAIN BETWEEN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE
FLOW. THAT FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT AND BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAVE SHIFTED NORTH INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
DRIZZLE ALSO MIXED IN AS WELL...MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE
MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 09Z. WRAP AROUND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LOW AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
TROUBLE REMAINING SATURATED BELOW 700MB...WHICH WOULD INDICATE MORE
OF A SPOTTY/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER THREAT. OBS ARE ALSO SHOWING
UNKNOWN PRECIP IN SPOTS OVER IOWA...WHICH COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SO WILL INCLUDE BOTH LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OF EITHER. A FEW
SPOTS COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF SNOW. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
WEST TO NEAR 30 BY THE LAKE.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THU. THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT WITH THE UPPER LOW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL MAINTAIN BROKEN CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD TEMPS UNDER
THE UPPER LOW CALLS FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
ANY LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE N SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING...
WITH CLDS PROBABLY LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
DECREASING. TEMPERATURES WL REMAIN ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BASED TEMPS ON A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS...TWEAKED TOWARD THOSE PRODUCTS THAT HAVE PERFORMED WELL
LATELY.
NO SIG CHGS TO THE EXTENDED FCST GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD-BASED
BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 502 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
EARLY THIS EVENING...CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO FALL AGAIN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW TONIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT
ACCUMULATE MUCH...BUT COULD DROP VSBYS TO IFR BRIEFLY. BETTER
CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL WI RATHER THAN FARTHER EAST. THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE
OUT WED AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS START TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI