Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/30/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

841 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS BASED OFF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
APPEARS BRUNT OF PRECIP FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR MAY BE OVER FOR THE
MOST PART...HOWEVER THE TROUGH IS STILL TO OUR WEST. BEST CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WILL BE EL PASO COUNTY.

BAND OF STEADIER SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF SE COLO. /HODANISH

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR. HRRR SHOWS SNOW CONTINUING FOR
A FEW HOURS ALONG I-25 AND THEN MOVING OUT AOA 11 PM-ISH.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

THE UPR LOW WILL BE OVER WY TONIGHT WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY COMING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOW AND OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE CONTDVD
FIRST...AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING SO WL ADD
THAT TO THE FORECAST.

THE HRRR SHOWS BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING OVR THE ERN
MTNS...I-25 CORRIDOR...THEN MOVING EASTWARD AND LOOKING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACRS THE FAR SERN PLAINS. THE NAM GENERALLY SHOWS 2-3
INCHES ACROSS TELLER AND NRN EL PASO COUNTIES...AND ACROSS THE FAR
SERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH 3-5 INCHES OVR MTN AREAS AND AROUND 1
INCH OVR MUCH OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM KCOS AND SOUTHWARD. THE GFS
IS SIMILAR BUT DOES NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH OVR THE MTNS AND OVER THE
FAR SERN PLAINS IT SHOWS ABOUT 2-6 INCHES OVERNIGHT. IF BANDS DO SET
UP...AREA UNDER THE BANDS COULD GET A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION THAN
LOCATIONS WITHOUT. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM FOR
SNOW AMOUNTS...WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST AREAS.

MON MORNING SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVR THE MTNS AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...THERE SHOULD ONLY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS
BY AFTERNOON. ALSO...AS WESTERLY FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE UPR
TROF...THE LOW LEVEL MSTR/CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT AND THE
PLAINS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

...WARMER WEEK AHEAD...

A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE COMING
WEEK...WHICH WILL GIVE US MORE SUN AND WARMER WX TO START THE
METEOROLOGIC WINTER OFF.

A FEW LINGERING SHSN OVER THE CENTRAL MTS MON NIGHT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TRAILING
DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING A FEW FLURRIES AND INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE
MTS TUE EVENING. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S WED-
THU...THEN POSSIBLY MID-UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS SW
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND ON HOW STRONG TO EXPECT THE TROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
SYSTEM...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK PROBABLY THAT
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
PERIOD...SO HAVE RAISED ENSEMBLE-BASED POPS SOMEWHAT SO THAT POPS
ARE AT LEAST CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGIC AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.
ROSE

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MON
MORNING AT KPUB AND KCOS. SOME SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. ON MON THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

KALS COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR THRU THE
PERIOD...BUT WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

540 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR. HRRR SHOWS SNOW CONTINUING FOR
A FEW HOURS ALONG I-25 AND THEN MOVING OUT AOA 11 PM-ISH.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

...WARMER WEEK AHEAD...

A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE COMING
WEEK...WHICH WILL GIVE US MORE SUN AND WARMER WX TO START THE
METEOROLOGIC WINTER OFF.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1034 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015

...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...
...COLD BUT LESS SNOW TOMORROW...

THE MODELS ARE NOT DOING VERY WELL TODAY IN CAPTURING BL PROCESSES
AND THE CLOUD/PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA. RELATIVELY SHALLOW
COLD AIR AND SERLY FLOW ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY HAS LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH TODAY...ALBEIT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION...WHILE THE REST OF
THE PLAINS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY PRECIP-FREE. MEANWHILE...THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...DESPITE DEEP SATURATED
LAYERS PROGGED BY THE MODELS. SO...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS A BIT
PROBLEMATIC AND PERSISTENCE WILL RULE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER WAVE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NW AZ/SW UT EJECTS TO THE NE INTO WY BY SAT
AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE THIS
EVENING...SO BEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE FROM
NOW THROUGH ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT. MOST ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...UNDER AN INCH. THE SAN JUANS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT SNOW SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA.
ANOTHER AREA THAT MIGHT SEE SOME RESPECTABLE ACCUMS IS THE ARKANSAS
RIVER CANYON ALONG WITH FREMONT COUNTY....THE NRN SANGRES...AND THE
WET MTN VALLEY. HIGH RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR ARE SHOWING THE BEST
EVENING POTENTIAL IN THAT REGION...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL PRETTY UNCERTAIN WHERE EXACTLY
THE HIGHEST ACCUMS WILL BE...OR WHETHER THIS HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPS AT ALL...SO WILL KEEP HEADLINE-FREE FOR NOW. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. IN
GENERAL...SUSPECT THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH
SAT MORNING SO HAVE CUT BACK QPF ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ADDED SOME
AREAS OF PC FZDZ OVER THE ERN PLAINS INTO SAT MORNING...AS MODEL
SOUNDING INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT FZDZ IN THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BUT IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE COLD...WITH TEMPS ON THE PLAINS STRUGGLING TO HIT 30 DEGREES.
WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE THE MID ELEVATION AREAS CLOSE TO THE WETS AND
SRN SANGRES...DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR IS. THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOULD ALSO GET ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN FOR THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF OVER SE CO...WHILE THE NAM IS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS. WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL TO OUR NW THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME MODEST FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR PRECIP...BUT
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP DO NOT LOOK VERY HIGH...AND THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR SOME CLEARING BY SAT AFTERNOON. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015

SAT NIGHT THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE EXTREME SWRN
CORNER OF WY. FORECAST MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...BUT DO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FAR SERN
PLAINS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FZDZ AS WELL. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ON SUN THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL WY. A
DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW AROUND THE SRN SIDE OF THE LOW...IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO WRN CO...ENHANCING SNOW CHANCES ALONG THE CONTDVD AND
MAYBE INTO THE TELLER COUNTY AND PIKES PEAK AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND MTNS THERE WL CONTINUE TO BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME PATCHY FZDZ STILL POSSIBLE IN AREAS
NEAR THE KS BORDER. HIGH TEMPS ON SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
OVER MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.

SUN EVENING THE UPR TROF AND DISTURBANCE MOVE ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...LIKELY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE EASTERN MTNS
AND PLAINS. AT THIS TIME ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. BY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND WITH THE PCPN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THE
NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER ENDING THE PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST THAN THE
GFS.

ON MON THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ERN HALF OF
NE...LEAVING W TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS. MSTR IN THE NW FLOW WL LIKELY KEEP SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS ON MON. HIGHS ON MON MAY GET
INTO THE LOWER 40S OVR SOME OF THE SERN PLAINS...BUT THE REST OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.

TUE THROUGH FRI DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE
EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS BY FRI BEING IN THE 50S OVR THE SERN PLAINS
AND IN THE 40S OVER THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015

FOR KCOS AND KPUB...

IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO LATE MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR AND
UPSLOPE FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TOMORROW EVENING...AND THEN LOW CIGS MAY RETURN BY LATE EVENING.
ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT AND NO SIGNIF ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR KALS...

GUSTY S WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EALY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. COULD SEE
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS LOW CIGS DEVELOP OVER THE VALLEY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ067-068.

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

745 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME VERY PATCHY FOG IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE
DELMARVA REGIONS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE VERY PATCHY NATURE, THE FOG WILL
LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING THE 6:30 AM UPDATE DID
REDUCE CLOUD COVER SOME ACROSS NJ AND DE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE 40`S TO LOW
50`S TODAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT
BUT ENOUGH LIFT LOOKS PRESENT FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE
LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS AND NW NJ IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HRRR AND
RAP NOT RULING OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THIS MORNING. SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 6:30 AM UPDATE ON POPS BUT
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON NW
OF PHL INCREASING IN COVERAGE TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL TIMING, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN WHAT WAS MODELED 24 HOURS AGO. WITH THE FRONT NOT ARRIVING
TILL THE AFTERNOON, THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY WITH
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NOONTIME ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
NORTHERN NJ, ONLY NEAR 50 THEN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40`S. MORE
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WITH SOME WAA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT FOR THE PHILADELPHIA AREA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60`S, LIKELY A HAIR
ABOVE MET/MAV GUIDANCE AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TAKING
WITH IT THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL TO THE PHILADELPHIA
METRO AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. HOWEVER, QPF THROUGHOUT THE NEAR AND
SHORT TERM PERIODS LOOKS RATHER MEAGER UNDER 1/4TH OF AN INCH ON
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS, THE SREF AND WPC GUIDANCE. COLDER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO FUNNEL IN BEHIND THE FRONT, PERHAPS A HAIR SLOWER/WARMER
THAN INDICATED WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO
SLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RIGHT NOW ANY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEPART
BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTH AND WEST. EVEN IF THAT WERE NOT THE CASE, TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WILL BE SLOWER AT 925 AND 850 MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND NOT SNOW.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BEST LIFT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF US INTO SRN VA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM ERN CANADA. ACCORDINGLY, ANY LEFTOVER
ANAFRONTAL RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AND LIKELY
SHIFT SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE ON SUNDAY. NLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL DRAW COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 40S IN NE PA/NW NJ AND LM50S ELSEWHERE, WHICH IS ACTUALLY
RIGHT AT CLIMO FOR THE END OF NOV.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE HIGH BUILDS,
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY IN SRN DE AND ADJACENT EASTERN MD. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR THESE FAR SRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRY FOR
MONDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
COOL.

A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE AN
OVERRUNNING SETUP ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP RETURNING TO
THE AREA EITHER LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD US. IF THE PRECIP COMES IN BEFORE SUNRISE,
THEN MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOWILL BE AWAY FROM MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KMIV. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KMIV UNTIL 12Z OR SO.R LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY AT THE ONSET IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF I- 80 (WHERE THE RETREATING
COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS TYPICALLY LAST TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO
THE OROGRAPHY). WILL KEEP THIS THREAT OUT OF THE HWO THIS FAR OUT
SINCE IT SEEMS LIKE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO BUT STILL
BEARS WATCHING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THRU THE AREA, WHICH IS WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS
AND GEM AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE ECMWF.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE MIDWEEK COLD
FROPA. ASIDE FROM MAYBE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY IN THE
POCONOS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT (WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THRU),
EXPECT A DRY ENDING TO THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOCALIZED FOG
HAS BEEN NEAR KMIV THE LAST FEW HOURS AND MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS. LOCAL TOOLS CONTINUE INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR PATCHY FOG WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO FAVOR VFR TODAY WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING GRADUALLY. WE HAVE INDICATED A TRANSITION TO MVFR
CEILINGS AT KRDG AND KABE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS TIMING IS A FEW HOURS LATER FOR
KPHL, KTTN AND TAF SITES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EVEN POSSIBLE FROM MID EVENING ON TONIGHT, MORE UNCERTAINTY ATTM
TO INCLUDE WITH THE 12Z TAFS. THINKING SOME OF THE INDICATORS
LOOKED AT MAY A BIT TO AGGRESSIVE LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THEN MORE NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS MAY YIELD MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN
SRN TERMINALS (ILG-MIV-ACY) INITIALLY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS TO VFR ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE DAY. N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY VFR W/ CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MARINE STRATUS MOVING INLAND. MIV AND ACY WOULD BE MOST VULNERABLE
OF THE TAF SITES TO MVFR CIGS IN THIS SETUP. RAIN MAY ALSO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN
LIKELY. LIGHT ELY WINDS BECOME SELY LATE.

WEDNESDAY...ATTM, THE RAIN MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE MORNING.
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS
INDICATING IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER
SLOWER SOLUTIONS DELAY THE IMPROVEMENT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL OCCUR WITH A COLD FROPA. THE FROPA WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WIND SHIFT FROM SLY TO WLY.

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER SEAS WE REMAIN AROUND FIVE FEET THROUGH TODAY BEFORE
FALLING TO AROUND FOUR FEET TONIGHT. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH 23Z
FOR THE HIGH SEAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SEAS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY DELAYED FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET TONIGHT WITH THE
PERSISTENT ESE SWELL. FOR NOW THOUGH, BOTH WAVEWATCH AND NWPS HAVE
SEAS FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET BY THIS EVENING, SO WILL NOT EXTEND
THE SCA.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING NELY WINDS 15-20 KT
WILL ACCOMPANY A PRESSURE SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH OF A GUST
POTENTIAL IN THIS SETUP SO GETTING 25 KT GUSTS ARE QUESTIONABLE.
HOWEVER, SEAS IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 4-7
FT, SO A SCA WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT, THEN SHARPLY
TURN WLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX RADAR IS BACK IN SERVICE.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
EQUIPMENT...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

617 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THEN MORE NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY VFR W/ CLEARING SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN
LIKELY. LIGHT ELY WINDS BECOME SELY LATE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT, THEN SHARPLY
TURN WLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX RADAR IS CURRENTLY INOPERABLE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
ABOUT THE OUTAGE. THE RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN AT THIS
TIME.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
EQUIPMENT...GAINES/KLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

348 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE
ACROSS THE DELMARVA AS NOTED BY SEVERAL REGION OBS AND THE NARRE.
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
AND LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE 40`S
TODAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT
BUT ENOUGH LIFT LOOKS PRESENT FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE
LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS AND NW NJ IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HRRR AND
RAP NOT RULING OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THIS MORNING. FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL TIMING, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN WHAT WAS MODELED 24 HOURS AGO. WITH THE FRONT NOT ARRIVING TILL
THE AFTERNOON, THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NOONTIME ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
NORTHERN NJ, ONLY NEAR 50 THEN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40`S. MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WITH SOME WAA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FOR THE PHILADELPHIA AREA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60`S, LIKELY A HAIR ABOVE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE AS WELL.

A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE AN
OVERRUNNING SETUP ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP RETURNING TO
THE AREA EITHER LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD US. IF THE PRECIP COMES IN BEFORE SUNRISE,
THEN MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY AT THE ONSET IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I- 80 (WHERE THE RETREATING COLD AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE IS TYPICALLY LAST TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE OROGRAPHY). WILL
KEEP THIS THREAT OUT OF THE HWO THIS FAR OUT SINCE IT SEEMS LIKE A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO BUT STILL BEARS WATCHING. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THRU THE AREA,
WHICH IS WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS AND GEM AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BASED ON THE ECMWF.

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOCALIZED FOG
IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, LOCAL TOOLS INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCE
WILL BE AWAY FROM MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KMIV. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KMIV UNTIL 12Z OR SO.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO FAVOR VFR ON SATURDAY WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING GRADUALLY. WE HAVE INDICATED A TRANSITION TO MVFR
CEILINGS AT KRDG AND KABE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS TIMING IS A FEW HOURS LATER FOR
KPHL, KTTN AND TAF SITES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EVEN POSSIBLE FROM MID EVENING ON TONIGHT, MORE UNCERTAINTY ATTM
TO INCLUDE WITH THE 06Z TAFS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THEN MORE NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY VFR W/ CLEARING SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN
LIKELY. LIGHT ELY WINDS BECOME SELY LATE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT, THEN SHARPLY
TURN WLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX RADAR IS CURRENTLY INOPERABLE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
ABOUT THE OUTAGE. THE RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN AT THIS
TIME.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
EQUIPMENT...KLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1217 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY, STALLING NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CIRRUS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT
IN THE WEST SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SOME LOCALIZED FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR THE DEW POINT READINGS IN
SPOTS. HOWEVER, THE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NEARLY AS
WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO
WEST SURFACE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S IN MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD OFF TILL AFTER DAYBREAK AS
DEPICTED ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WERE REMOVED WITH THE 12:30 AM UPDATE THROUGH SUNRISE.
ALSO, TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED IN A FEW SPOTS BASED ON LOCALIZED
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE SLOWER FCST TIMING NOW ALLOWS FOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 60S GENLY SOUTH OF PHL...BUT COOLER IN THE 50S
FARTHER NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL AS LOW- LVL CAA. AGAIN...THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE
FRONT IS SLOWER THAN FCST.

WE CONTINUE TO SHOW CHC POPS SPREADING SWD WITH FRONT ON
SATURDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATE AT BEST WEAK FORCING FOR UVV SO
QPF AMOUNTS ARE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE PHL AREA DURING THE AFTN AND REACH SRN NJ/NRN DE
BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS TO GET
HUNG UP A BIT AND MAY NOT DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARDS, THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAIN. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A TON OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH
THE FRONT WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CLOUDIER AS A RESULT OF REMAINING CLOSER TO THE
STALLING BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS AS THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TAPS INTO SOME OF THE COLDER
AIR SEEPING DOWN FROM CANADA. EXPECT A MUCH COLDER NIGHT OVER THE
REGION AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RESPOND TO THE AIR ENTERING THE
AREA. ONE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WE
RETAIN, WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN A SMIDGEN HIGHER THAN THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS. OVERALL, EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT, AT THIS POINT A STALLING BOUNDARY, JUST
TO OUR SOUTH. AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY CONTINUE TO SEE OFF AND
ON SHOWERS AS A RESULT OF THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BUT FOR THE MOST PART, WE SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING CONDITIONS FOR
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS OUR AREA.

BY TUESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES, LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
CUT OFF LOW IN THE MID LEVELS. AS THIS SYSTEM START TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THE STALLED BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING SHOWERS TO
OUR AREA. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EASTWARD PUSH, A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY, WE SHOULD SEE SOME
WARMING OCCUR AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 50S AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME 60S, AS WE START TO TAP INTO THE WARM MOIST AIR
EMANATING FROM THE GULF REGION.

THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND ONCE IT MOVES THROUGH, HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS AND WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT WITH A RETURN TO SOME
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS AND
EVENTUALLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING OVERHEAD. LOCALIZED FOG
IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE FOG SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD
AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. WE HAVE INDICATED A VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION AT KMIV BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR VFR ON SATURDAY WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING GRADUALLY. WE HAVE INDICATED A TRANSITION TO MVFR
CEILINGS AT KRDG AND KABE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS TIMING IS A FEW HOURS LATER FOR
KPHL, KTTN AND TAF SITES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EVEN POSSIBILE FROM MID EVENING ON, LOW PROBABILITY ATTM TO
INCLUDE WITH 06Z TAFS.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN SPOTS. THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY MORNING, VEERING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THROUGHOUT
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS BUT SOME GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY TOWARDS THE COAST.

TUESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS, WITH IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE, IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE WEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS IS IN PLACE FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 600 PM
SATURDAY. SEAS ARE DUE MAINLY TO A SELY SWELL WHICH IS FCST BY
WAVE WATCH MODEL TO INCREASE SMWHT FURTHER. SO SCA WILL BE LEFT
AS IS ALTHO IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE MARGINAL FOR OUR NORTHERN
WATERS. THE ENDING TIME LATE SAT AFTN STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR
NOW.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS MAY BE NEAR 5 FEET AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS AS WE SEE AN INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP. SEAS SHOULD
START TO SUBSIDE STARTING MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN
WATERS MAY TAKE LONGER TO DROP, REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TAKING PLACE.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH AND THEN TO THE
WEST WITH BOTH SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

.CLIMATE...
A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS RECORDED AT ALLENTOWN YESTERDAY AND
THE RECORD WAS TIED AT READING. RECORD EVENT REPORTS WERE ISSUED
FOR BOTH LOCATIONS.

ALLENTOWN PA - 65 - YESTERDAY
62 - PREVIOUS RECORD SET IN 1959 AND
1988

READING PA - 65 - YESTERDAY
65 - PREVIOUS RECORD SET IN 2011

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX RADAR IS CURRENTLY INOPERABLE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED ABOUT THE OUT
AGE. THE RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...AMC/MEOLA
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...GAINES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

934 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
02Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
GENERAL REX BLOCK CONFIGURATION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA...COMPRISED OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW FEATURE OVER THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST/HIGH PLAINS AND STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE TOP OF THE LOW ACROSS WESTERN CANADA.

CONFLUENT NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS THEN SEEN
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. CLOSER TO HOME...WE
CONTINUE TO BE PROTECTED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER BY AN
ELONGATED WEST TO EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST PROVIDING A LIGHT EAST/NE FLOW
OFF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ARE VERY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MID-
EVENING...WITH THE RADAR CLEAR OF ANY PRECIP ECHOES...AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. A BAND OF CLOUDS
CAN BE SEEN UP OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH
BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER...THIS
CONVERGENCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...AND HENCE THE BAND OF
CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO TEND TO DISSIPATE.

LATER TONIGHT...THE NE FLOW UNDERNEATH THE RIDGING ALOFT GIVES A
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE THIS STRATUS BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER NE FLORIDA
AND EXPAND SOUTHWEST AND WESTWARD INTO THE NATURE COAST ZONES.
HAVE INCLUDED AREA OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NATURE COAST
LATE TONIGHT...WITH MORE PATCHY AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
I-4 CORRIDOR.

FOG AND LOWER STRATUS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND SHALLOW CU THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...ONCE AGAIN OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RUNNING A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY
OF NOVEMBER. MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-4 WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE 80
DEGREE MARK...WITH LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH MAKING IT INTO THE
LOWER 80S.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WOULD ANTICIPATE GIVEN THE FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS/FOG WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EXPAND SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. BEST CHANCES AT A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR AFTER 09Z WOULD BE
FOR KLAL/KPGD...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH KTPA/KPIE CLOSELY AS WELL.
THIN STRATUS/FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH
PREVAILING VFR RETURNING FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 14Z.

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PROVIDING A GENERAL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. HEADLINE CONDITIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER THE NEXT FRONT TO
IMPACT THE REGION WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND RAINFALL.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 64 81 67 82 / 0 0 0 20
FMY 64 84 68 85 / 0 10 10 20
GIF 63 82 65 83 / 0 10 0 20
SRQ 63 82 67 82 / 0 10 10 20
BKV 60 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 65 80 68 82 / 0 0 10 20

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

536 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST A FEW SHRA MOVING IN FROM TIME TO TIME
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. DECIDED TO KEEP VCSH OUT AT THIS TIME AS
THE SHRA ARE FORECAST TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACTS. LOW PROB OF BRIEF MVFR, THAT`S IT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT WHILE LIKELY BECOMING N-NW ALONG ALL BUT THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AS PER HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE. ON
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NE AT 10-15 KT AT ALL SITES WITH SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. /GREGORIA

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO OUR NORTH WITH A
CONTINUED LOOSENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS SUCH,
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT STILL JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVING INLAND ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW HAS GENERATED RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS REPORTED TODAY
AT SOUTH BEACH ALONG WITH SEVERAL RESCUES. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.

THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE
EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN HOW PRONOUNCED
THE TROUGH WILL BE AND IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL GET. GFS MOVES THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY THU WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THIS FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
THU AND STALLS IT OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. EITHER WAY...THERE DOES LOOK
TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE WEEK ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT.

TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A STEADY INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE AND DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 70S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SLIGHT COOLING/DRYING IS POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONT`S PUSH SOUTH IS HIGH.
CERTAINLY THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT COOL AIR IS IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /GREGORIA

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND. THE
WIND IS ALREADY SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER,
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRETTY NON-EXISTENT TODAY AND SHORT
RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TREND WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE, BUT A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND
MOVING QUICKLY ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON ANY OF THE
TAF SITES.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID WEEK WITH WEAKENING SPEEDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO SLOWLY DECLINE. HOWEVER,
HAZARDOUS SEAS TO AROUND 7 FT ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF STREAM
THROUGH TOMORROW. /GREGORIA

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 82 72 83 / 20 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 82 73 82 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 70 82 72 84 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 63 83 66 85 / 10 0 0 10

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.

GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

146 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

.UPDATE...
745 PM CST

GOING FORECAST TONIGHT LARGELY IN DECENT SHAPE. MAIN TWEAK WAS TO
LOWER HOURLY POPS IN SOUTHERN CWA AS OBS HAVE ONLY BEEN SHOWING
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS SO ITS PROBABLE
NOT ALL AREAS ARE SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP. KEPT DRIZZLE WORDING
GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA WITH LOW DEWPOINT SPREADS
AND CONTINUED BROAD LIFT FROM UPPER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. SOLID STRATUS DECK STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
CENTRAL WI...THEREFORE LOCKED IN FULL CLOUD COVER UNTIL ABOUT MID
DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP A FEW DEGREES
FROM CURRENT LEVELS BY DAYBREAK. TWEAKED A FEW LOCATIONS UP A
DEGREE OR SO CONSIDERING CLOUDS AND WINDS NOT GOING CALM. WILL BE
ABLE TO LET THE LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY GO AS PLANNED AT
9PM...WITH WAVES AT SOUTH BUOY DOWN TO 8 FEET AS OF THIS WRITING
AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT MARINE OB SITES.

ONLY OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS LAKE EFFECT PLUME INTO FAR NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN ON LAST SEVERAL HOURLY RUNS OF
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS HRRR AND HRRR-X. WITH UNIMPRESSIVE LAKE TO
850 MB DELTA T/S OF 9 OR 10 CELSIUS YIELDING LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
AND NOT MUCH INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT
OF LAKE PLUME. KEPT "SILENT" POPS AROUND 10% IN GRIDS.

.SHORT TERM...
212 PM CST

THROUGH SUNDAY...

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON IS SLOWLY SLIDING
SOUTHEAST TOGETHER WITH AN AXIS OF PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FGEN ALIGNED
ALONG A COLD FRONT. FARTHER NORTH...A RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE IS
STARTING TO WORK INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS EVIDENCED BY FALLING
DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. AFTER THE AREA DRIES
OUT THIS EVENING...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND NEAR SEASONALLY NORMAL HIGHS UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE AND THE CORRESPONDING HEIGHT RISES ALOFT.

LENNING

.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT LOCALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE IN
LIFTING THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. IT IS A LITTLE HARD TO BUY
INTO SUCH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM A CONSIDERABLY WRAPPED UP
FEATURE...BUT THE KICK APPEARS TO COME FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS APPARENT ON THE WV IMAGERY AND BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE IT ANALYZED WELL...SO WILL PLAN TO
FOLLOW THE IDEAS OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

MOST OF MONDAY...OR AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL
AREA SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LIFTING
OUT OF THE GULF AHEAD OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH STAYS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHIELD
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING THIS WOULD ALL
APPEAR TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE
OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES LIKELY
WILL CLIMB OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOW CENTERS BOTH LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WRAP COLDER AIR AROUND
TO THEIR SOUTH. LOW LEVELS DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVES AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
SNOW.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE AREA AGAIN SHOULD HAVE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER...AND CLEARING SKIES WOULD APPEAR TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS
NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

LENNING

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* BRIEF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 08Z.
* NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH NOON.
* MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO AFTERNOON.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SLOW TO DRY OUT TODAY. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES AIDED BY A
STOUT INVERSION AND UNSTABLE AIR AND ADDED MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT CAUSING PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE/RAIN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS IS TRANSLATING EAST SO DPA
AND ORD...AND POSSIBLY MDW AND GYY...MAY EXPERIENCE THIS PRIOR TO
08Z.

THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY START TO ERODE LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY SEE AT
LEAST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON...SO
BROKEN WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RFD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE EDGE OF THE MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY.

NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD LOSE GUSTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN DROP DOWN FURTHER IN SPEED THIS EVENING.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND TEMPORARY AND DONE
BY 08Z.
* LOW-MEDIUM IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS SCATTERING.
* HIGH IN ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODIC -SHRA. CHANCE OF -DZ/FG. MVFR
CIGS LIKELY WITH IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY.

THURSDAY...VFR.

MTF/IZZI

.MARINE...
144 AM CST

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY EASE THE WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN SO GUSTY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE SINCE YESTERDAY. WAVES WILL BE EVEN
SLOWER TO FALL...BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 5 FT IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE BY SUNSET.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY EVENING TO NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STIFF EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL
ENCOMPASS THE LAKE BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO OCCLUDE DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE SYSTEM AND OVER THE
LAKE. THE SYSTEM DEPTH INDICATED BY COMPUTER MODELS AT THIS POINT
DOES NOT NECESSARILY SCREAM GALES...BUT THE PATTERN IS
CONCEPTUALLY ONE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME TEMPORARY GALES OR NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS DURING THAT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM SATURDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1149 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

Cold front finally cleared entire forecast area earlier this
evening. The post frontal precipitation has also been on the wane
with the departure of the front and much of the associated
forcing. Based on latest radar trends and mesoscale model runs,
expect that most of the measurable precipitation has ended, except
for areas along/south of the I-70 corridor. Still, a deep moist
layer is still conducive for the patchy post frontal drizzle that
is being reported. Far northern portions of the forecast area are
approaching 32 degrees, and although these temperatures shouldn`t
fall much further overnight, there is some threat of slick roads
due to the currently wet pavement and possibly some patchy
freezing drizzle. Aside from updates to PoP trends, only a few
minor tweaks are needed to the nighttime forecast.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

The cold front draped across the eastern half of the country has
almost made it all the way through ILXs area this afternoon, and is
currently in the vicinity of I-70. Plenty of precipitation in the
region moving up from the SW. Precip is expected to continue,
particularly in the south and east through the overnight. The big
issues are the northern extent of the measurable precip, and the
timing of the cold air moving in behind it. HRRR and NAM both
trying to pull the precip further south after 06z, which should
remove the threat for FZRA later tonight. The forward progression
of the cooler air is also working against the rainfall as it is much
drier than the airmass over Central Illinois. The dry air is slowly
eroding the llvl RH and some of the weaker echos in the NW are only
seeing low clouds, and not reporting precip. Even in the NW where
the rain chances may recede after midnight, the low clouds and
potential for a misty night remain.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

Our area should be in between shortwaves on Saturday with a definite
trend south with the axis of heavier QPF from previous forecasts.
With our area in between shortwave trofs on Saturday, it appears the
better chances for rain will be across southeast Illinois, closer to
the frontal boundary and any associated weak surface wave that will
track northeast along it. Forecast soundings not very supporting of
any precip further north during the day so we will see a gradual
shift south with the higher POPs as the boundary gets a nudge to the
south by afternoon. Forecast soundings showing some drier air (900-
800 mb)advecting south into the region during the day as well but
expect quite a bit of cloudiness to hang around during the day with
the lingering POPs mainly across the southern third of the forecast
area by afternoon.

Low POPs will remain Saturday night into Sunday with the GFS showing
a weak lead shortwave coming out of the large upper low over the
southwest U.S. Sunday afternoon and evening with the main push from
the low to our southwest not getting into central Illinois until
Monday. That is when we will see likely POPs return across the
entire area with forecast soundings continuing to support rain
during the day, and then as we see cold advection settle in around
the backside of the upper low Monday night, we will see a mix or
changeover to light snow before the main forcing/lift ejects off to
the northeast on Tuesday. The main 500 mb trof axis will not shift
off to our east until Wednesday, so we will continue with at
least some low chance POPs Tuesday and Tuesday night associated
with the cold pool aloft. Finally, by Wednesday, the system should
be far enough to our northeast to have a dry forecast for the
entire area along with seasonably cool temperatures.

As the large upper low continues to drift away from the Midwest late
Wednesday into the end of the work week, upper level heights will
start to increase across the region, with more of a semi-zonal flow
pattern depicted on medium range models. This should result in a
rather quiet weather scene over the region with near normal
temperatures and little if any rain or snow.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

IFR and/or low-end MVFR conditions and spotty showers/drizzle
will persist for the balance of the night. Drier air filtering
into the area on northerly winds will help to lift CIGS on
Saturday, with an improvement of VFR possible by Saturday evening.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1147 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

.UPDATE...
745 PM CST

.SHORT TERM...
212 PM CST

THROUGH SUNDAY...

LENNING

.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE AREA AGAIN SHOULD HAVE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER...AND CLEARING SKIES WOULD APPEAR TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS
NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

LENNING

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* BRIEF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 08Z.
* NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH NOON.
* MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO AFTERNOON.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD LOSE GUSTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN DROP DOWN FURTHER IN SPEED THIS EVENING.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND TEMPORARY AND DONE
BY 08Z.
* LOW-MEDIUM IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS SCATTERING.
* HIGH IN ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODIC -SHRA. CHANCE OF -DZ/FG. MVFR
CIGS LIKELY WITH IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY.

THURSDAY...VFR.

MTF/IZZI

.MARINE...
212 PM CST

BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LAKES FROM THE
WEST...AND A COLD FRONT DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...STRONG NORTH
WINDS OVER THE LAKE TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY...WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WILL BACK WESTERLY WHILE WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL VEER NORTHEASTERLY. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SLIDES NORTH OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND TURNS ALL WINDS TO THE
EAST. THE EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF APPROACHES THE AREA.
BY TUESDAY THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIFTING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
THEN ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF
THE LAKE REMAINING EAST OF THIS LOW...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM
EAST TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND ALL THE WAY AROUND TO NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY.

LENNING

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM SATURDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

230 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

INDIANA WILL LIE BETWEEN A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH TODAY. AS THE WEEKEND GOES ON...THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND TAKE CONTROL OF HOOSIER WEATHER.

FROM MONDAY INTO A WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS INDIANA WHILE
MOVING NORTH AND THEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT TO END THE WORK WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WAS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF KSDF WITH RAIN PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE ENTIRE AREA SEEING THE CHILLY N/NE FLOW. 15Z TEMPS RANGED FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS ONCE AGAIN ON TEMPERATURES
AND FINE TUNING POPS AS RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST.
HRRR/WRF GUIDANCE AGAIN HAS A NICE HANDLE ON PRECIP COVERAGE WITH
PRECIP ENDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. WHERE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT A SHALLOW SUBFREEZING LAYER DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 1-2KFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY ENABLE GRAUPEL TO PERIODICALLY MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN AS
IT ENDS. WILL NOT INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AND EXPECTED LOCALIZED COVERAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE LITTLE IF NOT FALL A COUPLE DEGREES LATER
TODAY. HAVE TRENDED HOURLY TEMPS CLOSER TO LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAW
SURFACE TEMPS OFF THE RAP FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH MOST AREAS
HOVERING BETWEEN THE UPPER 30S AND MID 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
STEADY N/NE WINDS WILL ADD TO THE RAW DAMP FEELING PRESENT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

THE IMMEDIATE PROBLEM IS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT RAIN RETREATING SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT...BUT THE GFS BRINGS SOME BACK LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE GFS COULD BE RIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT IS A POTENTIAL AREA FOR
INERTIAL INSTABILITY. THE MODEL HAS NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
VORTICITY WHICH WOULD REFLECT THIS AT 18Z TOMORROW. THE LAST TIME
SOMETHING SIMILAR HAPPENED THE GFS WAS CORRECT. FOR THAT REASON THE
MAV POPS THAT RELY ON IT WILL BE USED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

AFTER SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW PROGRESSIVELY GREATER DIFFERENCES
DEVELOPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. CONSENSUS WILL BE USED TO
GRAPPLE WITH THIS.

SKIES ARE APT TO STAY CLOUDY THANKS TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL STUFF
COMING OUT OF THE TROUGH ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES EXCEPT
FOR THE MAV COLDER AT SOME PLACES SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON WHATS BEEN
OCCURRING AROUND THE FRONT IT LOOKS BETTER THEN.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UPPER
TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TO START THE LONG TERM. A WEAK WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH COULD BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S BUT WARM ADVECTION BEGINS DURING THE DAY AND THEN SHOULD
SEE TEMPS WARM BY A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM
THURSDAY ON. SUPERBLEND CAPTURED THE PATTERN WELL WITH NO NEED FOR
MAJOR CHANGES.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1148 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

MAINLY IFR AT ALL SITES BUT POSSIBLY KLAF FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF AS WELL. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED AT KLAF AROUND 3-6Z BUT WILL NOT REACH KBMG UNTIL
AROUND 15Z...WITH KHUF AND KIND AROUND 9-12Z.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

100 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

LIGHT RAIN WILL END BY EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE SOME IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 20S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

RATHER BENIGN NEAR/SHORT TERM PD AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ENEWD THROUGH
OHIO VALLEY. FINAL VESTIGES OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
/ESPECIALLY WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR UVM OWING TO LOCAL PRESSURE
TENDENCY/DERIVATIVE ON I285-290K SURFACES EJECTING FROM ECNTL
ILLINOIS TO ALONG AND S OF ROUTE 24 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AM AND WILL
ACCOUNT WITH SEPARATE PREFIRST PD. WHILE SOME RAPL MIX ACROSS NERN
IL EARLIER THIS EVENING AND SOME UP AWOS ACRS SRN LWR MI...HAVE
MAINTAINED ALL LIQUID AS MAGNITUDE AND DEPTH OF MAX TW ALOFT GREATER
ACRS CWA PER RAP ANALYSIS...CERTAINLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE SNOW MIX PER
RELATIVE WARM CLOUD TOP TEMPS SUGGESTING LACK OF/OR AT LEAST
QUESTIONABLE ICE CRYSTAL NUCLEATION PER AMDAR AND RAP SOUNDINGS. ALL
BUT FAR SERN THIRD OF CWA DIFFICULT TO MEASURE ESPECIALLY BYND 15
UTC AS FEATURE WEAKENS/PUSHES EWD WHILE FOCUS SAGS SEWD AS
INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINS WITH DVM ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGE
STRENGTHENING/BUILDING EWD THROUGH CNTL LWR MI THROUGH THE DAY. HELD
LINE ON TEMPS GIVEN ANTICIPATED LAGGARD CLOUD COVER WITH AFTERNOON
PARTIAL CLEARING RELEGATED PRIMARILY NORTH OF ROUTE 24. POOR
INSOLATION OPPORTUNITY AMID PERSISTENT 925MB CAA/LOW SOLAR ZENITH
ANGLE/SHORT DURATION OF SHORTWAVE FLUX. SLIGHT LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS
FOR SUN AM AS WELL...INLINE WITH GUIDANCE...ACCENTUATING N/S
GRADIENT AS NORTHERN CWA MOST LIKELY AND MORE READILY TO DECOUPLE
PER PROXIMAL SOUTHERN RIDGE PERIPHERY...AS WELL AS REMOVE MARINE
LAYER BLEED IN AS OFFSHORE/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FAVORS A COLD
KBEH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING RELATIVELY PLEASANT...THOUGH SEASONABLY COOL.
SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL RIDGE/AVA WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION AND SUPPORT
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE/HIGH PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH BUT MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 1C
SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW THEN PINWHEELS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK NORTH WITH A DECENT SWATH OF 290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT LOW
LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH ARRIVAL OF MIDLEVEL CVA BULLSEYE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
EXACT TIMING/TRACK OF EJECTING LOW BUT KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/MODERATE RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT...A FEW TENTHS
AT BEST GIVEN RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT OF MEDIOCRE FORCING AND
MOISTURE. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LIFTING CYCLONE TO
BRING SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE HELP OF WARM LAKE MICHIGAN
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
TIMING/TRACK ISSUES LEAD TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED. MOST AREAS
WILL NOT SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARM SURFACE TEMPS BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES COULD SEE A QUICK DUSTING
WEDNESDAY MORNING IF BETTER PRECIP RATES ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE. KEPT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY BUT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SCT SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IF SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL TO END THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

DRY AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNGLIDE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL HELP
CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...SKIPPER

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1217 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

LIGHT RAIN WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE SOME IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 20S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

PRIMARY CHANGE TO MAINTAIN LOWERED CONDITIONS A BIT LONGER ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AS OHIO VALLEY FRONTAL WAVE SLOW TO TRACK NEWD.
LONGER DURATION CIGS BLO 2KFT AT KSBN. IFR CIGS INTO MIDDAY
FOLLOWED BY FUELING/ALTERNATE CRITERIA A BIT LONGER AT KFWA.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MURPHY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1200 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

INDIANA WILL LIE BETWEEN A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH TODAY. AS THE WEEKEND GOES ON...THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND TAKE CONTROL OF HOOSIER WEATHER.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

THE IMMEDIATE PROBLEM IS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT RAIN RETREATING SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT...BUT THE GFS BRINGS SOME BACK LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

AFTER SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW PROGRESSIVELY GREATER DIFFERENCES
DEVELOPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. CONSENSUS WILL BE USED TO
GRAPPLE WITH THIS.

SKIES ARE APT TO STAY CLOUDY THANKS TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL STUFF
COMING OUT OF THE TROUGH ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES EXCEPT
FOR THE MAV COLDER AT SOME PLACES SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON WHATS BEEN
OCCURRING AROUND THE FRONT IT LOOKS BETTER THEN.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON
TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE LOW CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW PASSES OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
BY THAT POINT...AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1148 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1015 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

INDIANA WILL LIE BETWEEN A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH TODAY. AS THE WEEKEND GOES ON...THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND TAKE CONTROL OF HOOSIER WEATHER.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

THE IMMEDIATE PROBLEM IS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT RAIN RETREATING SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT...BUT THE GFS BRINGS SOME BACK LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

AFTER SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW PROGRESSIVELY GREATER DIFFERENCES
DEVELOPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. CONSENSUS WILL BE USED TO
GRAPPLE WITH THIS.

SKIES ARE APT TO STAY CLOUDY THANKS TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL STUFF
COMING OUT OF THE TROUGH ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES EXCEPT
FOR THE MAV COLDER AT SOME PLACES SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON WHATS BEEN
OCCURRING AROUND THE FRONT IT LOOKS BETTER THEN.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/15Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 925 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS TO THE SOUTH OF TAF SITES.
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. AS RAIN COMES TO AN END FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE SAT 19Z-SUN 01Z TIME FRAME...MVFR IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER...SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AT ALL TAF SITES BY SUN
10Z. KLAF CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLIER THOUGH SINCE IT/S
FARTHEST FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 8 TO 12 KTS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/CP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

655 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY TAPER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER
SOUTHEAST OF ROUTE 24 THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN
TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY
BREAKS MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 40...AND LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MURPHY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

428 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY TAPER FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
THOUGH ANY BREAKS MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN SOUTH OF ROUTE 24.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 40...AND LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

CONTINUED ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER SUBCLOUD AIR INTO FAR NRN IN SHOULD
LIFT CIGS AT KSBN TO ABOVE FUELING/ALTERNATE CRITERIA WITHIN ABOUT
3 HRS. THEREAFTER...NO SIG AVIATION WX CONCERNS WITH ASSURED VFR
MET CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE VALID PD. AT KFWA CONTINUE
TO ANTICIPATE SLOWER IMPROVEMENT PER NORTHERN EXTENT OF RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN ALSO MAY PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN MAINTAINING IFR CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF NIGHT.
ATTEMPT TO BRING MODICUM OF IMPROVEMENT FOR MAJORITY OF DAYLIGHT
HOURS...THOUGH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS BLO 2KFT WILL PERSIST
INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MURPHY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1150 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015

CHILLY...WET AND RAW CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK...USHERING IN MORE RAIN AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 920 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGESTING THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST BORDER ZONES JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MAIN REGION OF LIFT DIMINISHES...BUT WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME RAIN CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AS
OVERRUNNING LINGERS ALONG FRONT.

ALL IN ALL...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS MADE
ON THE UPDATE WILL BE FOR THE WINDS DUE TO FRONTAL POSITION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE SEEN A 7 TO 10
DEGREE DROP WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT 20Z...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY ALIGNED FROM JUST
NORTH OF KMIE W/SW THROUGH CENTRAL VERMILLION COUNTY. TEMPS WERE IN
THE 40S NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.

THE RAIN AND TEMPERATURE SHIFT ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE NEAR
TERM AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD TREK
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS THE INDY METRO OVER THE
NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE METRO AREA TO THE SOUTH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY SURFACE
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE BOUNDARY
EVEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
STRETCHES OUT. WHILE THE JET WEAKENS...DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONALLY...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE REGION REMAINING NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER JET OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THIS
POINTS TO CONTINUED RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RATES SETTING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. 100 POPS REMAINS VALID FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO A RAW AND CHILLY N/NE FLOW WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPS...TOOK CURRENT OBS AND UTILIZED THE 18Z RAP AS A STARTING
POINT FOR HOURLY TEMP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS WITH THE
FRONT SLIDING SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT LIES AT 12Z
SATURDAY WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW COOL FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
GET. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LOCALES FROM BEDFORD THROUGH SEYMOUR AND
NORTH VERNON HANG UP CLOSER TO 50.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH
A PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH A BRIEF BREAK WEDGED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN CONTINUING
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED HERE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
DEEPER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER MOST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING WELL BEHIND THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING CLOUDY INTO SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DRAWING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION WILL BECOME ZONAL AND EVEN BRIEFLY RIDGE AS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SERVE TO SHIFT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BULK OF THE RAINFALL SOUTH
INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND GIVE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA A RESPITE FROM THE
WET PATTERN. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. CANNOT RULE
OUT A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY BUT MOST
SHOULD STAY DRY.

ELONGATED AND STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
BEGIN TO EJECT OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...LEADING TO A RESUMPTION OF THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
COMMENCE EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW...DEEPENING QUICKLY AS IT PULLS NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROMPT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT. TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PLAY AT THIS POINT BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE ECMWF AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE OP GFS FASTER IN BRINGING PRECIP BACK NORTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL REINTRODUCE LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER ALL
BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH HIGHER POPS MONDAY AS STEADIER
RAINS ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

TEMPS...A MOS BLEND OVERALL WORKED WELL FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR
LOWS AS MAV AND MET GUIDANCE LOOKED TOO AGGRESSIVE AND FAR TOO COLD
WITH LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO START THE LONG TERM...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD SEE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH IT.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY AND WARM BY A
COUPLE DEGREES BY FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015

IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS LIKELY MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES WITH
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT MOST SITES THROUGHOUT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH...WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 14-15KT AT TIMES. A PERIODIC GUST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL BE TOO INFREQUENT TO MENTION.

CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IFR OR WORSE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND/OR SOME DRIZZLE.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

601 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

Main attention was to the system moving through tonight. An upper level
trof will swing out from the central Rockies and out across the Central
Plains. The 400-hPa pv anomaly will move basically right over the forecast
area with resultant QG forcing increasing. A band is indicated by the
ARW to develop across west-central Kansas. The HRRR and 4 km nam show
more activity across south-central Kansas. Precip type looks to be
mainly snow across west-central Kansas and mixed precip type across
south-central Kansas. Did expand the advisory south as some ice accumulation
is possible with the largest amounts across Pratt, Barber, and Stafford
counties. The "heavy" snow fall axis looks to extend from Syracuse to
Hays... up to 3".

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

The system will eject by 18Z tomorrow with pops rapidly decreasing as
isentropic downglide develops in the wake of the synoptic trof. The
rest of the forecast is primarily dry. The superblend does crank out
some slight pops next weekend. Left the superblend solution alone since
attention was geared to the short term domain. The overall extended
does feature moderating temperatures and lack of any significant trofs
until next weekend, potentially.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

IFR to LIFR cigs along with MVFR to IFR vsbys can be expected
overnight. The upper low over the western states will finally
eject east northeast through Monday. As it does, precipitation
will develop again overnight mainly in the form of -fzdz/-fzra.
Areas of snow are expected to move through later tonight, mainly
in the Garden City and Hays areas. Visibilities could drop to a
mile at times in the snow. Look for VFR conditions to finally
return to western Kansas around or after 18z Monday.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 36 20 42 / 60 60 0 0
GCK 24 34 17 40 / 80 70 0 0
EHA 24 38 19 44 / 30 30 0 0
LBL 24 37 20 44 / 40 30 0 0
HYS 26 33 20 37 / 80 80 0 0
P28 30 37 23 44 / 70 30 0 0

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-090.

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Gerard

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

527 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

20Z water vapor imagery shows an upper low over UT cut off from the
mean westerlies with a vort max rotating around the southwest quad
of the upper low. A fetch of mid level moisture continues to feed
into the central plains within southwest flow, although it is
shifted a little further east. At the surface, a broad area of high
pressure remains over the region. Current trends show the surface
high weakening this morning. Temps have effectively been steady with
overcast skies an neutral temperature advection.

The weather will get worse for north central and parts of northeast
KS before getting better. Models continue to show large scale
forcing overspreading the forecast area as the vort max over Las
Vegas lifts through the central plains late tonight. Large scale
assent is progged to overspread the area leading to widespread
precip overnight and Monday morning. Unfortunately the cold air at
the surface is likely to remain right about where it is. Models seem
to gradually be coming into agreement with the thermal profiles,
although the GFS continues to be the warmer solution while the HRRR
and RAP tend to keep the freezing line about where it is now. From a
big picture view, temps will be steady through the night. However
from a perspective of the precip type forecast, where the freezing
line sets up will have a major impact. The forecast tends to regard
the GFS as a slightly warm outlier which has verified to warm
recently. With this in mind think an axis of freezing rain from
Abilene through Marysville is probable. Models are generating
between a third and a half inch of QPF with the system overnight.
With temps expected to be right at or a degree or two colder than
freezing, think significant ice accumulations are possible and I
have a quarter to a third of an inch within that corridor. The model
forecast soundings also show a small window across north central KS
where there is ice in the cloud and a thermal profile hovering
around freezing. This could allow for some minor accumulations of
snow from Concordia to Washington and northwest. At this point it
looks like there could be around an inch of snow just west of the
axis if ice accumulations. From Emporia to Topeka and areas east,
temperatures are expected to remain just above freezing through the
night with precip remaining all rain. I am relatively confident in
this scenario happening, but there is a higher than normal risk in
being off on the location depending on where freezing temps set up.
Will issue a warning for the areas most likely to see the damaging
ice accumulations and have an advisory in the remaining north
central counties for a mix of freezing rain and snow.

Models are still on track in lifting the forcing north of the area
during the afternoon. Therefore precip should taper off during the
day. As the surface low lifts north, a Pacific cold front sweeps
through shifting winds to the west with weak cold air advection
occurring. Since there should not be a lot of insolation, afternoon
highs Monday are not anticipated to be much more than 5 or 10
degrees warmer than the morning temps.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

Tomorrow night the mid/upper level low pressure center is forecast
to lift northeastward over the upper Midwest. There is the potential
for a shortwave rotating around the main mid level low to pass
over northeast KS during the day Tuesday. Models are indicating
fairly light precip is possible near the NE state line in the form
of rain or snow. After that there is a trend of quiet weather going
through next weekend. This current system will push the moisture well
into the gulf for several days as a reinforcing trough drops down
from western Canada. Surface high pressure gradually migrates
across the central US with temperatures warming into the 40s and
50s by the end of the week. Towards the end of the weekend a mid
level low pressure digs over the southern Rockies and eventually
the plains. This system will have some return flow ahead of it
although the moisture appears limited for now. This system has a
better chance of producing mostly rain.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

LIFR cigs are expected throughout evening and overnight hours at
all terminals. Precip should remain all rain at the Topeka
terminals, while MHK is expected to transition back to -FZRA after
midnight. All precip is expected to transition to light drizzle by
late Monday morning. Cigs will remain border line LIFR/IFR through
tomorrow evening as low status is expected to remain.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Monday for KSZ009>011-
021>023-034>037.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for KSZ008-020.

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Baerg

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

117 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

...updated short and long...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Have been watching radar trends over the last few hours across south-
central Kansas. The HRRR and ECMWF show some additional snow showers
possible this afternoon developing on the 850-hPa baroclinic zone. As
a result, have extended the winter weather advisory across south-central
Kansas until 6 pm. There is a chance that this advisory might run a
little long and might need to be canceled earlier if WSR-88D trends
bear this out. Otherwise, much of the area will remain dry. The atmosphere
will remain fairly saturated through the overnight that freezing drizzle
looks fairly likely. Minimums should be in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Southwest Kansas will still remain in a favorable jet streak position
for some light snow showers tomorrow night. In addition to dynamic lift
aloft, there will be a 850-700-hPa baroclinic zone passing through.
Some low level isentropic lift should lead to some snow showers across
the northern zones late Sunday night and into Monday morning. Have
issued a winter weather advisory up north since light snow amounts
(1-3") are possible and people still could be traveling back home
from holiday travels. Current snow amounts may be a tad high, but
still feel that the I70 corridor could become slick again. After
this event, we enter a dry period with dry northerly flow aloft and
weak high pressure at the sfc. There might be some showers in about
a week from now along a front. The superblend pops look fine for
now. Temperatures will moderate through the end of the weekend and
into the upcoming business week.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Poor flight conditions all around. Not a period for VFR/GA pilots. MVFR/IFR
conditions today will continue and will decrease to LIFR as cigs lower
along with freezing drizzle tonight. Winds will be N/NE 5-15 kt.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 21 32 26 35 / 10 30 60 10
GCK 20 31 25 33 / 10 30 70 10
EHA 20 34 23 36 / 10 30 40 10
LBL 21 34 25 36 / 10 30 40 10
HYS 21 28 26 33 / 10 60 80 50
P28 26 34 28 38 / 10 30 60 20

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ066-
080-081-088>090.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for
KSZ030-031-043>046.

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1001 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 816 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015

THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE TRI-STATE
AREA CURRENTLY. THIS CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WILL CREATE A
THIN GLAZE OF ICE ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES. THE ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT AS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE LAST
NIGHT. NO ADVISORY FOR ICE ACCUMULATION IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SNOW LARGE
CLOSED LOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH EXTENSIVE
PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHEAST US. DRY LAYER (APPARENT ON
SATELLITE) IS STILL INFLUENCE OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
COMPLICATE PRECIP TYPE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...STAGNANT/COLD PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH
THESE PERIODS WITH POST FRONTAL/COLD AIR MASS LINGERING IN PLACE.
WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REMAIN IN
PLACE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES/TYPE IS THE
DEPTH/NATURE OF THE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER OUR CWA. A DRY LAYER IN
THE LOWEST 6000 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPED OVER NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND ADVECTED SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA PUTTING AN END TO
PRECIP. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF RETURN FLOW/UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE -3 TO -8C
LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS FLOW ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AS NORTHERLY
WINDS (INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE) SHOULD KEEP A PERSISTENT DRY
LAYER IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL OR AT THE VERY LEAST COVERAGE.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ON SHIFTING BL FLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A COMPLICATED PRECIP TYPE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN IF THE RETURN FLOW DOESN`T OCCUR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS END
UP OVERDONE. AFTER COLLABORATION...DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF
ON ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND I PLAN ON HANDLING THE
POTENTIAL WITH SPS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN UTAH INTO SOUTHWEST
WYOMING SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PLAN TO GO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT SINCE FORCING AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DECREASING AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SUNDAY. FORCING
INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND GOES INTO THE NIGHT. PLAN TO GO
WITH HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING AS MID LEVELS
SATURATE AND ICE FORMS IN THE COLUMN. OVERNIGHT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STARTS DECREASING AGAIN SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE LIGHT SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND THE MID 30S MONDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS
FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS LACKING
WITH THIS FEATURE SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE FA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW EXITS AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. CONSEQUENTLY,
POPS WILL BE NIL.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS MODERATING TO
THE LOWER 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MODERATING TO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 959 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL FALL FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH CEILINGS CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL/CLT
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

National Weather Service Paducah KY

538 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

Light rains are spreading back northeast across much of the area.
Considering regional radar trends and water vapor imagery, it will
likely be well into the evening hours before it comes to an end
from west to east. The latest HRRR suggests a rapid drying trend
from west to east from 00Z-03Z. As winds drop off into the
overnight hours, drizzle and fog are likely to develop, so added
in areas of drizzle to most of the region.

A weak warm front will try to move through the region Monday, but
it will not be significant enough to even generate a few breaks
in the low overcast. The warm frontal passage is associated with a
rather intense storm system lifting northeast through the
northern Plains/upper Midwest.

The 12Z models continue to be all over the place with QPF Monday
and Monday night. Odds are that the moisture we have been fighting
all weekend will be lifted back across west Kentucky, at the
least, Monday afternoon and night. The models hint at shower
development over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois mainly
on the trailing cold front Monday night, so will keep at least a
chance PoP throughout the region, but likely to categorical PoPs
will been posted in the southeast.

Some rain may linger in the far east/southeast into Tuesday morning,
but it still appears that we will finally dry out Tuesday afternoon
and Tuesday night.

Will stay close to consensus for highs and lows through the
period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

High confidence in the extended.

Models are in good agreement with high pressure setting up over the
heartland and dominating the weather pattern. So high and dry will
be the ruling weather factor for the extended. We will start out
slightly below normal for temperatures but as the axis of the surface
high drifts east a southerly flow will resume and bring us slightly
above normal temperatures for the rest of the weekend. The next
chance of rain will arrive day eight or nine as a an upper low
impacts the area early next week. Even then the low will originate
out of the southwest with no significant cold air foreseen in its
wake.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 538 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

With a quasi-stationary system still hung up across the region
coupled with abundant moisture, LIFR/IFR cigs/vsbys and/or periods
of -RA/-DZ will continue at all sites through the period. Winds
will generally continue out of the north northeast AOB 10 knots.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1243 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MUCH OF THE LEADING EDGE OF ECHOES
OBSERVED ON RADAR ARE NOT RESULTING IN RAIN AT THE SURFACE...EVEN
WHERE THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL RETURNS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT. LOWER LAYERS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ALLOWING RAIN AT THE
SURFACE BUT THE RAIN WILL BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS. HAVE UPDATED
HOURLY GRIDS TO SLOW THE BEGIN TIMES OF THE RAIN. ALSO MADE A FEW
OTHER MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY NDFD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...
REACHING THE OHIO RIVER AS OF THIS UPDATE. WE ARE ALSO IN A LULL
OF SORTS UNTIL MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN KY/TN REACHES US LATER THIS MORNING...TO MID DAY. HRRR HAS
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS MOVING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z.
UNTIL THEN EXPECT MORE SCATTERED TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. EARLY MORNING UPDATE MAKES ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS AND ZONES
FOR LATEST THOUGHTS AND TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

A SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST...OR KDAY BEFORE TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG VERY
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT
FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE SFC BOUNDARY ONLY INCHES ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD FROM THERE...MANAGING TO DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT
COMPLETELY. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE
FRONT KEEPING THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A LARGE AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION ECHOS IS PRODUCING MAINLY
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE KENTUCKY MESONET
IT APPEARS THAT A STATION OR TWO ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST HAVE MANAGED
TO SQUEAK OUT AS MUCH AS A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH THUS FAR THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WILL DO THE SAME BEFORE THIS
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MANAGED TO
EXIT TO THE EAST A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE MID 40S IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT HAVE ALREADY
SHOWN SIGNS OF REBOUNDING AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER
OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED
NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. RAIN DUE TO A
CONTINUOUS MOISTURE FEED AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LIKELY AT
TIMES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. FURTHER WEST...A LARGE UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST...IT IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN...ALLOWING A SFC LOW TO
FORM OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THIS SFC LOW WILL
PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT WILL ALSO PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY EVENING...KEEPING
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NEWD...THE UPPER
TROUGH GETS ELONGATED BACK TOWARD THE SW SLOWING DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC FRONT ALLOWING SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...THIS IS ALSO WHERE MODELS
DIFFERENCES EMERGE. THE GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER SFC LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EXTENDING PRECIP NW INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF/S SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS BUT STILL KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS OR JUST ABOVE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY THEN DROPPING TO AROUND 50 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT THEN
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 20S/NEAR 30 AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE TN AND VA BORDERS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL. THE
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE INITIAL RAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS FIRST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND
PERSISTENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JVM/HAL
AVIATION...SBH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

945 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER. SCT
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL MORE STEADY AND WIDESPREAD RAIN
REENTER THE AREA BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z TODAY. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL
DROP WITH TIME AS A RESULT...WELL INTO MVFR RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN EVEN LOWER IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE S...SW
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FROM THE N...NE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER OUR NORTHERN MOST
COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING AND CREEP SOUTHWARD FROM THERE...
REACHING THE KY/TN/VA STATE LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING SUNDAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JVM/HAL
AVIATION...RAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

740 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JVM/HAL
AVIATION...RAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1152 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NRN BRANCH NW FLOW
ALF PENETRATING INTO THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF PERSISTENT WRN TROF/SE
RDG SRN BRANCH FLOW REGIME DOMINATING THE CONUS. NW FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE NCNTRL PLAINS IS ADVECTING COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA...WITH UPSTREAM 12Z H85 TEMPS -13C AT INL AND -14C AT
YPL. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LK EFFECT CLD COVER OVER THE CWA...BUT
LO SUBSIDENCE INVRN...WITH INVRN BASE AT 12Z NEAR H9-925 AT INL AND
YPL...HAS GREATLY LIMITED THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE LES
IMPACTING AREAS NEAR LK SUP. THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE INCOMING
AIRMASS...WITH 12Z PWAT ABOUT 0.08 INCH AT BOTH INL/YPL /ABOUT 35
PCT OF NORMAL/...HAS ALSO HAD A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON PCPN. LO TEMPS
THIS MRNG WERE QUITE FRIGID AND AS LO AS -5 TO -10F UNDER SFC RDG
AXIS STRETCHING FM THE HI CENTER IN THE DAKOTAS INTO NW ONTARIO.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LO CLDS TRENDS/TEMPS AS DRY
HI PRES RDG IS FCST SLIDE SLOWLY SE THRU THE UPR LKS THRU SAT.

TNGT...AS SFC RDG AXIS/SHARP ACYC LLVL FLOW UNDER AREA OF DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE/DRY AIR SETTLES ACRS
UPR MI...EXPECT LINGERING LK CLDS TO CLR. WITH PWATS IN THE 0.1 TO
0.2 INCH RANGE/LIGHT WINDS/VERY LO TEMPS OBSVD UPSTREAM THIS MRNG...
WL FAVOR THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FCST...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH SN COVER. ARRIVAL OF SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STEADY W WINDS/
PERHAPS MORE PERSISTENT LK CLDS OVER THE KEWEENAW ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE RDG AXIS PASSING TO THE S WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP THERE.

SAT...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/STEADY W WINDS UNDER THE SHARPER PRES
GRADIENT/STEADY W FLOW TO THE N OF HI PRES RDG AXIS FCST TO STRETCH
FM MN ACRS WI INTO NRN LOWER MI ARE FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS INTO THE
0C TO -2C RANGE BY 00Z SUN. UNDER LINGERING AXIS OF DRY AIR...EXPECT
MOSUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH LOWERING SUN ANGLE WL LIMIT DEGREE OF DIURNAL
HEATING...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LO/MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP THE ARCTIC AIR
TRAPPED OVER FAR NORTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND LOOKING AT
THE CFSV2 AND LONG RANGE ECMWF ENSEMBLES...THAT PATTERN LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF DECEMBER.

JUMPING BACK TO THE SHORTER TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH AND A
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT WILL LEAVE THE AREA THE AREA WITH NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD.
THERE IS ONE THING TO MENTION. A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY VEER THE BL WINDS AROUND TO A
LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR A TIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TURN TO THE NORTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 920MB MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S MODEL RUNS...THE CLOUD DEPTH IS SHALLOWER
AND VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. WILL FOLLOW THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE
OF THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD COVER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BASED OFF THE INDICATED LOW CLOUDS ON THE NAM/GFS
FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING...WOULD
EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO PUSH BACK OUT OF THE AREA. WITH AS LOW AS THE
CLOUDS ARE INDICATED IN MODELS TODAY...MAY NEED TO BE CONCERNED
ABOUT REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL FOR SUNDAY
MORNING.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LOW. THAT SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED LOWER ON QPF
VALUES SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN A QUARTER AND
HALF AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER TREND IN THE MODELS IS
FOR GENERALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
INCREASES THE RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. BUT
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.P.. EXPECT THE
MAIN PUSH OF PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THEN EXPECT JUST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THE REST OF THE WAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THE FAR WEST COULD SEE SOME MODERATE SNOW AS
THE AREA OF FORCING FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND IS FOCUSED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE
WESTERN U.P.. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...DON/T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW...AS THE MID LEVELS
QUICKLY DRY OUT DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH COLDER THAN -5C. THAT UPPER RIDGE
WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015

LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KCMX WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX
EARLY THIS PERIOD. KIWD AND KSAW WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015

AS A HI PRES RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...A STRENGTHENING WSW WIND UP TO 25-30
KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
AND LO PRES CROSSING NRN ONTARIO. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES
TYPICALLY ACCENTUATE THIS FLOW. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL DIMINISH
STEADILY LATER ON SAT AND VEER TO THE NE THRU SUN AS A WEAK LO PRES
TROF/SLACKER GRADIENT DIP INTO THE UPPER LAKES AND HI PRES BUILDS
INTO NW ONTARIO. ONCE THE HI SHIFTS TO THE E...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS
ON MON. A STRONGER E WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL THEN DEVELOP ON TUE AS A
DEEP LO PRES MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NNW ON WED FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS LO TO THE E.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1142 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 925 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015

Large area of rain stretching from the ARKLATEX into southern IL
continues to drift south. A quick glance at 00z NAM as well as
hi-res HRRR suggest that this southward shift will persist
overnight, with the heaviest rain threat remaining confined to
areas south of I44 in MO and s of I70 in IL, draped along strong
low level baroclinic zone north of slow moving cold front. Flood
Watch for central MO was cancelled earlier this evening, and based
on above trends have also cancelled the Flood Watch over the STL
Metro. Although the heavy rain threat should be confined to the
southern third of the CWA, I have remained fairly generous with
lower PoPs further north as area is RRQ of jet core over the Great
Lakes. Can`t totally rule out a threat of frozen precip in our far
NW counties late tonight, but very much uncertain about how
much...if any...precip will be able to develop in this area of
sub-freezing temps.

Truett

.SHORT TERM: (Through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015

A strong wound-up storm system over the Great Basin region of the
western CONUS is expected to move little during this period,
maintaining an active southwest flow aloft over our region, with
disturbances training along. This will all intersect a pretty moist
airmass in place still over our region and result in high probs for
precipitation, especially for areas near and south of the I-70
corridor.

First, will keep the FFA going as-is. Despite rain tapering off in
central and now east-central MO, the rain is cycling to an extent
and should try to fill back in further north into central MO this
evening and overnight. Also, flooding effects are typically
delayed from when the rainfall occurs and so the flood threat does
not end right when the rainfall tapers. Will let the evening and
overnight shifts re-evaluate and cancel early as needed once the
effects on the area are better realized.

Second, surface temps will once again approach the freezing mark
across parts of northeast MO and west-central IL and with current
and expected vertical temp profiles, would be supportive of a brief
period of light freezing rain or sleet. Fortunately, much of the
threat for measurable pcpn will be south of this area and any
amounts, should they occur, should be very light. PoPs here are
below 50%.

Preferred the higher end of MOS temps for mins tonight and lower end
of MOS for maxes Saturday with extensive cloud cover in place.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015

(Sunday - Monday)

As the wound-up western CONUS storm begins to stir eastward, the
pattern over us remains status quo, with an active southwest flow
aloft and additional disturbances tracking thru, overrunning
moisture well to the north of the old surface boundary.

This should result in another widespread rain event, but QPF will be
light, with around a tenth of an inch forecast and should have
minimal to no impact on flooding concerns.

Good agrement then continues on what to do with the storm system
center, bringing it out into the Plains by Monday and track it to our
north Monday night. During this process, a strong disturbance will
rotate around the southern periphery and impact our area Monday. QPF
looks low, with a tenth of an inch or less forecast for this event,
but probs remain on the high side, with likely PoPs forecast.

Temps will be at or a tad below average for daytime maxes, but remain
above average for nighttime mins--all because of the extensive cloud
cover that continues to be forecast.

(Tuesday - Next Friday)

Good model agreement begins to go away by late Wednesday, with a
pair of dry days expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

GFS is showing a stronger storm system trying to take shape on
Thursday than the EC, but this system at first glance looks to be
moisture starved and have kept PoPs on the dry side for now.
Consensus then re-achieved for Friday with building heights and
ridging overhead.

With cold air forecast to continue to be locked up well north, temps
will begin this period around average but trend warmer by the end of
the week with the building heights aloft and southerly flow at the
surface.

TES

.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015

IFR flight conditions will continue to prevail across the area
into Saturday morning. Latest guidance is more pessimistic about
the ceilings rising on Saturday, and it may take until late
morning across northeast MO and west central IL to go MVFR. IFR
may stick around for most of the day further south, with little
chance for improving to MVFR in southeast MO and southern IL.
Lingering light rain and drizzle will continue to keep lowered
visibility across much of the area along and south of the I-70
corridor through at least mid morning...longer further south.
Ceilings will likely improve later in the afternoon and into the
evening, but the improvement may be short lived as stratus tends
to lower during the nighttime hours.

Specifics for KSTL:

IFR ceilings will continue to prevail at Lambert at least through
Saturday morning. Lingering light rain/drizzle will also continue
to lower the visibility to 3-5SM...probably at least until 12-15Z.
Latest guidance is more pessimistic about the ceilings rising on
Saturday...and there looks to be little if any probability that
ceilings will rise above 1000 FT before 20Z, and ceilings
probably won`t rise above 2000 FT through the night into Sunday
morning. In fact, clouds may drop back below 1000 FT overnight
Saturday night as stratus tends to lower during the nighttime
hours.

Carney

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-
Washington MO.

IL...Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Randolph IL.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

547 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

MESSY...MESSY FCST THE NEXT 36 HRS AND BECAUSE OF THAT DISCUSSION
WILL BE ON THE SHORT SIDE FOR LENGTH. MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE PCPN
TYPE...WHICH LEADS TO PROBLEMS WITH ICE AND SNOW AMOUNTS. WARNING
IS BASED ON WHAT POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE...AND WAS STARTED
SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THAN WE EXPECT THINGS TO DETERIORATE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTN SHOWED THE MAIN CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION IN THE MID LEVELS OVER UT...WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CENTER
IN WY. VERY UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL NOTED AT 300 MB FROM NM INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AT 300 MB THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE NOTED AT 850 MB MOVING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST...WITH 8
DEGREE C 850 MB DEWPOINTS IN NRN OK AND SWRN MO AT 12Z.

AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT INTO WY AND CO BY 12Z MONDAY...LIFT
WILL INCREASE WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND
SOME OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF PCPN OVER OUR
AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING RUSH HOUR
FOR THE LNK...OMA AND CBF AREAS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR MIXED PCPN WHICH WILL INCLUDE MUCH OF ERN NE AND INTO
WRN IA. FAR SERN NE AND PARTS OF SWRN IA WILL JUST BE IN AN
ADVISORY...SINCE SFC TEMPS THERE LIKELY TO BE CLOSER TO OR
POSSIBLY ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN TYPE DEFINITELY AN ISSUE OVER THE
FCST AREA...WITH SNOW IN OUR NW ZONES AND RAIN SE ZONES. THE AREAS
IN BETWEEN WILL SEE A MIX.

ON MONDAY...HEAVIEST PCPN WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD ACROSS IA BUT
ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPS ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN NE TOWARD ERN SD. THAT
SHOWS UP FAIRLY WELL IN THE 12Z GFS PARAMETERS WITH UPWARDS OF
0.25 QPF AND THAT WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. SNOW LINGERS THERE PAST
6 PM THERE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN OUR SRN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT
SNOW COULD LINGER INTO TUE AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE MID LEVEL
LOW WHICH SHOULD REACH CNTRL WI BY 00Z WED.

MOISTURE WILL NOT BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MIXING RATIOS/
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES AVERAGING 3-4 G/KG ACROSS NERN NE AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THAT FARTHER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS. USED A
BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS. SOME PCPN PSBL BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GET WORSE AS
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY CONTINUE TO LOWER. LOOK FOR IFR AND LIFR
AT ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS
STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF FORECASTER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL START OUT WITH MAINLY
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING AND FROZEN MIXED IN
AFTER 09Z. KOFK HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND
STAY THERE. KOMA AND KLNK WILL HAVE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT MAY GO TO ALL LIQUID
AGAIN FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 13Z.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ065>068-078-088>090-092.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY FOR NEZ091-093.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ043>045-050>053.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-056.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY FOR IAZ079-080-090-091.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ069.

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1134 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPES.

AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...IT
SEEMS TO BE MAKING A BIT OF HEADWAY TO THE EAST INTO THE ROCKIES IN
THE SHORT TERM AND MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSOLIDATING ON THE EVENTUAL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW. MODELS INDICATE THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE EVENING.

WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING HUGE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE WRF DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT THE HRRR IS STINGY WITH PRECIPITATION
TODAY...FOR EXAMPLE. A DRY PUNCH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP TYPE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES THE DRY LAYER...THE GFS DOES
INDICATE THAT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SO I DID STICK IN A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW ALONG
WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. NOW THE EXCEPTION THIS EVENING WILL BE IN
OUR SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE COULD SATURATE
EARLIER...AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO I KEPT A FREEZING
DRIZZLE/SLEET POTENTIAL IN FOR THIS AREA AS THE WARM LAYER WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN ZERO AND TWO DEGREES. I FIGURE THAT I AM
COVERED WITH THE FREEZING RAIN IF WE HAPPEN TO NOT BE SATURATED IN
THE LAYER OF POTENTIAL DENDRITES AND GET FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD.
I DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH INCLUDING A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES HERE...SO I WILL TRY TO KEEP IT SIMPLE. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION AT ALL FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. WENT
CLOSER TO HIRES NMM EAST FOR HIGHS AND SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...AS IT APPEARS TO BE DOING OKAY FOR LOWS THIS MORNING (I
RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

THE BIGGEST CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS WILL FOCUS ON AN
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE OUTLOOK AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
EVENTUALLY ANOTHER SNOW STORM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BECOMES ELONGATED AND POSITIVELY TILTED
BY SUNDAY MORNING STRETCHING FROM NEVADA INTO WYOMING. AT THE
SURFACE...MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE ROTATING
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS DEBATE JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL GO...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL INDICATE MORE OF A
FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT ON SUNDAY SHOULD PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AT
ALL.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND BETTER
LIFT TO THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL
A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS. BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES FIRST BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD. MADE AN ATTEMPT TO SHOW THIS
SLIGHT TRANSITION BY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER TO SNOW IN THE FORECAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO BASED ON THESE PRECIPITATION TYPES. WHEN ITS
ALL SAID AND DONE...THIS COULD BE THE LARGEST SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO FAR THIS YEAR. CURRENT SNOW
TOTALS ARE SHAPING UP TO BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA..WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT FOR CERTAIN AS THERE ARE
STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO CONSIDER. TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE AREA...HOW FAST WILL THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN
UP TO ALLOW SNOWFALL INSTEAD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR FREEZING OR POSSIBLY
WARMER. ALL OF THIS COULD DRASTICALLY REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. AS
FOR HEADLINES WITH THIS EVENT...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO WAIT TO ISSUE HEADLINES SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID NOT WANT TO BOX FUTURE SHIFTS
IN WITH HEADLINES FOR LATER TIME PERIODS IF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
THE WEEKEND TURNS OUT TO BE A BIGGER DEAL.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER PATTERN TURNS FAIRLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT
TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO HIGHS
IN THE 30S TO EVEN 40 DEGREES AT TIMES. OF COURSE...THIS TOO COULD
BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON RESULTANT SNOW COVER FROM THE MONDAY
STORM.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THIS TAF FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT DETERIORATING CEILINGS ARE FORECAST THIS EVENINGTHROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SOME QUESTION REMAINS WITH TIMING OF THE
SUB VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER CONCERN...MAINLY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...LIES WITH -FZDZ POTENTIAL. AT THIS
POINT...KEPT THE MENTION OUT AS NOT ALL MODELS AGREE WITH ITS
OCCURRENCE THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW...BUT IS SOMETHING TO CERTAINLY
KEEP AN EYE ON.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...ADP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

641 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY DIP TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO SATURATE. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF PRIMARILY SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...MORE SO FOR
TONIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THIS
FORECAST.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

553 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

512 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

358 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL NOT FAR FROM AVERAGE FOR THE
END OF NOVEMBER. THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL
GRADUALLY END THIS EVENING WHEN DRIER MID-LEVEL DROPS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE PATCHY FOG ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS CLOUD COVER...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGESTING THAT MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO QUICK TO CLEAR SKIES OUT.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVELS WILL DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY...THERE WILL BE
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION.
NAM BUFKIT AND THE HRRR CAPTURE THIS MOISTURE...BUT THIS GUIDANCE IS
SOMETIMES TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN THIS CASE...THE
NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS THE
FORECAST WILL FAVOR THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS MAY REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF CLOUDS POSSIBLE
AN ALL AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER
IS LOW.

THIS WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPERATURES...SINCE CLOUD COVER WOULD PREVENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH A PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ELSEWHERE LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN
THE UPPER 20S...BUT POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER IF THERE IS ANY
CLEARING. ALSO...IF SKIES DO CLEAR OUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN SPOTS.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...WITH MODEST DAYTIME MIXING LIKELY TO
MIX OUT THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MOST GUIDANCE
HANGS ONTO AT LEAST SOME LOW MOISTURE...AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FORECASTS SOME LIGHT QPF. MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER LIGHT QPF CAN
SOMETIMES BE A SIGNAL BY MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THERE WILL BE LOW
STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT WIND DIRECTION FROM NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL... ONLY
ABOUT 0.15 INCH PW... KEEP CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE COOL AND DRY AIR WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EACH DAY.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS WILL
PROMOTE LOWS IN THE 20S... AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AS LOW-
LEVEL RETURN FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S FROM THE FINGER LAKES
TO LAKE ERIE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE A RAPIDLY OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW NEARLY BENEATH IT...AND A
POCKET OF COLD AIR SWEEPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PW EXCEEDING AN INCH...WILL PROVIDE
A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE FOR RAINFALL STARTING MID MORNING ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADY RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR AN INCH
ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN TO A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO RISE ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CUT-OFF LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL FINALLY BE ON
THE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW... WITH AN AMPLE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE WARM FRONT /
DEVELOPING LLJ SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS A BAND OF RAINFALL THAT WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO
THE LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY. THE BY TUESDAY EVENING OR INTO WEDNESDAY
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK AND TIMING
BETWEEN THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN IMPROVING... THERE
REMAINS ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC. THE
ENSEMBLES / ESPECIALLY THE EC ENSEMBLES/ DEPICT AN INTERESTING BI-
MODAL DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING... WITH ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY LIKE THE GFS AND THE
OTHER HALF HOLD IT BACK UNTIL WEDNESDAY LIKE THE OPERATIONAL EC...
WITH FEW ENSEMBLES IN THE MIDDLE GROUND.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TIMING... BY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
THEN SETTLE EAST OF THE LAKES INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CUT-
OFF NATURE OF THIS LOW... THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL COLD AIR TAP FROM
HIGHER LATITUDES... AND MODELS ARE ONLY DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS DOWN
TO ABOUT -4 TO -7C IN THE CORE OF THE LOW. THESE MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
48F LAKE SURFACES... HOWEVER... EXPECT MAINLY THE HIGHER HILLS SOUTH
OF BUFFALO AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT
COULD REALLY SEE LAKE SHOWERS MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AT THIS POINT... IT IS NOT LOOKING GREAT FOR BUFFALO TO SEE ITS
FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH THIS STORM... WHICH
TAKES US THROUGH DECEMBER 2ND AND 3RD (ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE
IT OUT YET). THE RECORD LATEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT KBUF IS
DECEMBER 3RD (WHICH OCCURRED IN 1899). IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH
THIS STORM SYSTEM WITHOUT MEASURING 0.1 INCHES OF SNOW... IT COULD
ACTUALLY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE GET ANOTHER CHANCE AT SNOW. AFTER
THIS STORM SYSTEM... RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES NORTH TO THE HUDSON BAY FROM THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES (GEFS THROUGH
360HRS AND THE CFS) INDICATE THAT THIS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FEATURE THAT COULD LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE 2ND
OR 3RD WEEK OF DECEMBER. SHOULD THIS COME TO FRUITION... WE WOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...
AND ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR REMAINING AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH PERHAPS ONLY A FEW MARGINAL CHANCES AT PICKING UP
SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AFTER THIS...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LOWERS WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AT ABOUT 2 K FT. IFR CIGS SHOULD
LINGER AT JHW...BUT CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WILL DEPEND ON HOW
EXTENSIVE THIS AREA OF CLOUDS IS. IF IT DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD BE
AROUND 1K FT...AND EITHER IN THE IFR OR MVFR CATEGORY. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS THAT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FOR TOO LONG THEN RADIATION FOG
WILL DEVELOP WITH IFR OR LOWER VSBY/CIGS POSSIBLE.

LOW MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT IN MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO (ROC/IAG)
WHERE THE STRATUS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...PATCHY IFR/MVFR CIGS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RAIN. MAINLY MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY AND AND
THEN DRIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MID WEEK WHICH WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
PICK UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND
IT. THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE WATERS.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

125 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS BUT NOT FAR FROM
AVERAGE FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH MORE RAIN.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF. RADAR SHOWS SOME DRIZZLE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD LAST UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN DRIER
AIR MOVES IN.

THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS CLOUD COVER...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGESTING THAT MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO QUICK TO CLEAR SKIES
OUT. MID LEVEL DRYING IS JUST ON THE DOORSTEP TO THE NORTH...AND
THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD
AND DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS BY THIS EVENING. THE PROBLEM IS SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION WHICH IS
BEING AIDED BY LAKE MOISTURE AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL. NAM
BUFKIT AND THE HRRR CAPTURE THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT OFTEN
THIS GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR NOW THIS
MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE IS VERIFYING BETTER SO WILL TREND THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL NORTH TO
SOUTH CLEARING TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY REMAINING CLOUDY
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER IS LOW
GIVEN THE SHALLOW LOW MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A VERY DRY MID-LEVEL.

THIS WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPERATURES...SINCE CLOUD COVER WOULD
PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT A PARTIAL CLEARING IN MOST
AREAS...SO WILL FORECAST SOME COOLING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
FULL CLEARING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS.
ALSO...IF SKIES DO CLEAR OUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...WITH MODEST DAYTIME MIXING LIKELY TO
MIX OUT THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO CLOUD COVER AND
EVEN FORECAST SOME LIGHT QPF. MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DEEP
ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER LIGHT QPF CAN SOMETIMES BE
A SIGNAL BY MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME... A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM NEAR THE HUDSON BAY TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE NORTHERLY TURNING EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP A STREAM OF VERY DRY AIR/ PW VALUES
DOWN TO 0.15 INCHES/ MAKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL/ A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40/ BUT
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS WILL
PROMOTE LOWS IN THE 20S... AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RUN CLOSER TO NORMAL
AS LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM (MORE ON THAT BELOW).

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CUT-OFF LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL FINALLY BE ON
THE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW... WITH AN AMPLE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE WARM FRONT /
DEVELOPING LLJ SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS A BAND OF RAINFALL THAT WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO
THE LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY. THE BY TUESDAY EVENING OR INTO WEDNESDAY
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK AND TIMING
BETWEEN THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN IMPROVING... THERE
REMAINS ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC. THE
ENSEMBLES / ESPECIALLY THE EC ENSEMBLES/ DEPICT AN INTERESTING BI-
MODAL DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING... WITH ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY LIKE THE GFS AND THE
OTHER HALF HOLD IT BACK UNTIL WEDNESDAY LIKE THE OPERATIONAL EC...
WITH FEW ENSEMBLES IN THE MIDDLE GROUND.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
LOWERS WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO REMAIN TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION AT ABOUT 2 K FT. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS
SHOULD STAY SCATTERED TONIGHT...HOWEVER IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AT JHW...AND MAY ALSO LAST AT BUF/IAG/ROC
IF A LOW STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THAT IF SKIES
CLEAR OUT FOR TOO LONG THEN RADIATION FOG WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL
BE DRIVEN BY VERY SUBTLE FEATURES SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST MUCH IN ADVANCE.

LOW MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT IN MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO (ROC/IAG)
WHERE THE STRATUS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

.MARINE...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CHOPPY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH WINDS AND WAVES HAVE NOW
FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE LOWER LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES
DIMINISHING. THE FLAT WAVE ACTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

937 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

WE MADE ANOTHER MINOR UPDATE IN COLLABORATION WITH NWS GRAND FORKS
AND USING TIME-LAGGED HRRR DATA TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST LOWS NOW IN THE
MID 20S F THERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ND AS OF 0245 UTC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ROUNDING THE 500-MB LOW IN WY. RADAR ECHOES ARE WEAK...BUT LIGHT
SNOW WAS REPORTED IN MOBRIDGE SO WE SPREAD A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO THE BISMARCK/MANDAN AREA THROUGH 08 UTC.
LOWS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED USING A TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF HRRR RUNS
AS THAT GUIDANCE IS CAPTURING THE QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP WITH
CLEAR SKIES IN NORTHWEST ND AS WELL AS THE RELATIVELY WARMER LOWS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER
THIS EVENING AND CLOUD COVER WILL REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

NO CHANGES TO THE MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST. THE 00 UTC NAM AND THE
LAST SEVERAL RAP RUNS SUGGEST SNOW ONSET MAY BE DELAYED BY SEVERAL
HOURS AND FOCUSED MORE ON LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAN
THE CURRENT HOURLY FORECAST SUGGESTS THOUGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 559 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

WE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND THROUGH EARLY
EVENING IN RESPECT TO THE RADAR ECHOES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND
WHICH WERE LOCATED FROM HETTINGER TO REGENT AT 2345 UTC. IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY MORE THAN FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW IS OCCURRING WITH
THOSE ECHOES BASED ON OTHER OBSERVATIONAL DATA THOUGH...AND EVEN
THAT SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ALOFT MOVES WESTWARD OUT OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...ONLY
VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF TONIGHT/S FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH NEAR JAMES BAY WITH WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD
LOW STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH CENTER OF CIRCULATION NOW OVER WESTERN WYOMING.
BROAD SHORT WAVE LIFTING OVER THE TOP OF THE LOW BROUGHT SOME
SNOW TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...THOUGH THIS HAS NOW ENDED
OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR UPCOMING WINTER
WEATHER STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS UPPER LOW STARTS TO DO
AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...UPPER LOW WORKS ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST WITH THE
CENTER PUSHING OVER NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. BROAD
SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION WITH SNOW DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE
LIFTING INTO NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON SPREADING WEST AND
NORTH AS THE PRECIPITATION WRAPS OVER THE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

A POTENT STORM IS TAKING AIM ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...IOWA AND MINNESOTA. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE 12 UTC MODEL RUNS
BRING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES VALLEY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE
RATHER LIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND BEST FORCING WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST...BUT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER NEARLY A 24
HOUR PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 848 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...AND LIGHT SNOW
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IT/S UNCLEAR HOW FAR NORTH THE LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SO CONFIDENCE IN THE 00 UTC
TAFS FOR KISN AND KMOT IS MODEST AT BEST. FINALLY...LIGHT SNOW
WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE WORST FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AFTER 00 UTC /6 PM CST MONDAY EVENING/.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
NDZ047-048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ MONDAY TO NOON
CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ034>037-042-045-046.

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

848 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015