Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/28/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED TODAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. PRECIPITATION IS MOVING HURRIEDLY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT NEARLY 40 MPH. THIS IS KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WITH A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NV/UT BORDER IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY WITH NO UPSTREAM FEATURE TO MOVE IT ALONG UNTIL LATER ON THIS WEEKEND. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWED SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...WHICH WOULD AID IN KEEP PRECIP CONFINED TO NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER TODAY AND TOMORROW. SEEMS LIKE THE LATEST RUNS OF VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS NOTION AS WELL. CLOUD COVER AND LOWER THICKNESSES WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/18Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4-9K FT AGL WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS WEST OF KTUS. SCT -SHRA AND EVEN SOME EMBEDDED -TSRA PSBL WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF -TSRA OUT OF TERMINAL FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SW WINDS OF MAINLY LESS THAN 12 KTS THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SW WINDS 12 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KOLS/KALK/KDUG TERMINALS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER 27/02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS EVEN SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON AND ESPECIALLY IN COCHISE COUNTY. LOCATIONS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THERE WILL REMAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE EAST OF TUCSON TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL. THEN...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARILY AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK 20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. && .PREV DISCUSSION...LATEST HRRR SOLUTION SUGGESTED THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST TODAY. THIS LOOKED LIKE A REASONABLE SCENARIO BASED ON THE GFS WHICH SHOWED SOME DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION TODAY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS UPPER LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATION OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST. THUS...THE BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TODAY INTO FRIDAY GENERALLY EAST OF TUCSON. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO THE WEATHER WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON FRENCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED TODAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED TO AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON FROM NEAR CLIFTON SOUTHWEST TO WILLCOX AND NOGALES. LATEST HRRR SOLUTION SUGGESTED THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST TODAY. THIS LOOKED LIKE A REASONABLE SCENARIO BASED ON THE GFS WHICH SHOWED SOME DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION TODAY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS UPPER LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATION OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST. THUS...THE BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TODAY INTO FRIDAY GENERALLY EAST OF TUCSON. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO THE WEATHER WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/12Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4-9K FT AGL WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS WEST OF KTUS. SCT -SHRA AND EVEN SOME EMBEDDED -TSRA PSBL THRU ABOUT 27/18Z AT KOLS/KDUG WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF -TSRA OUT OF TERMINAL FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SW WINDS OF MAINLY LESS THAN 12 KTS THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 12 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KOLS/KALK/KDUG TERMINALS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER 28/02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS EVEN SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON AND ESPECIALLY IN COCHISE COUNTY. LOCATIONS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THERE WILL REMAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE EAST OF TUCSON TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL. THEN...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARILY AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK 20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
251 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 248 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015 ...PERIODS OF SNOW TONIGHT... ...MORE LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY... BUSY DAY OF WX FOR THIS HOLIDAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS HAVE FINALLY CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF THE STATE...WHICH COULD HOLD ON TO SOME FZRA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGHLIGHT IN GENERAL HAVE SO FAR WORKED OUT PRETTY WELL. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SNOW POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FROM NOW THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...INCLUDING THE HI RES WRF...HRRR...AND 18Z NAM...ALL SHOW BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND MOVING FROM SW TO NE DURING THIS TIME. THE QPF FORECAST IS DIFFICULT SINCE IT IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY AT THIS POINT EXACTLY WHERE THESE HEAVY MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP...IF THEY DEVELOP AS PROGGED. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCAL SPOT COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TONIGHT IF ONE OF THESE BANDS IS PERSISTENT OVER THE SAME AREA. THE HRRR HAS THE SNOW BULLSEYE OVER THE SRN SANGRES AND SPANISH PEAKS...WHILE THE NAM SETS UP THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE NRN SANGRES AND FREMONT COUNTY. BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND MODEL CONSENSUS...APPEARS THE BEST BET FOR SEEING HIGHER SNOW TOTALS WILL BE OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND SRN I-25 CORRIDOR...AS THESE MESOSCALE BANDS TRANSLATE IN FROM THE SW. HAVE UPGRADED THIS AREA TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT. EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE HEAVIEST BAND. RATES OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE BANDS. ELSEWHERE...THE ONGOING FORECAST OF 2-4 INCHES FOR THE PLAINS AND 4-8 FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS ON TRACK. FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHSN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON ANOTHER WAVE OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE SW...AND THIS WILL BRING BACK THE THREAT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS TO THE AREA. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT...MAY HAVE TO EXTEND SOME OF THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND/OR ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW AVG AS H7 TEMPS OF MINUS 15 OR LOWER CONTINUE TO SLIDE SWD DOWN THE SRN FRONT RANGE. GFS-BASED GUIDANCE SEEMS A TAD TOO COLD...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER NAM WHICH STILL BRINGS HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE A VERY RAW DAY ACROSS THE CWA. ROSE .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 248 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015 FRI NIGHT THE UPR LOW WL BE CENTERED OVR THE GREAT BASIN WITH SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVR THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SFC OVR THE ERN PLAINS...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS WL CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL. AN UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING AROUND THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPR LOW INTO WRN CO...SHOULD HELP ENHANCE SNOW CHANCES ACRS THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTNS...AND COULD INCREASE SNOWFALL OVR THE NRN SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK AREA. ON SAT...THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE UPR LOW...AND BY AFTERNOON THE UPR DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN PCPN CHANCES...WITH GENERALLY JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT CHANCES IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER THERE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACRS THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS WL STILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20 TO LOWER 30S...MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER NR THE MTNS. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH MOSTLY 30S IN THE UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. SAT NIGHT THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SWRN WY. THIS WL BRING ANOTHER UPR DISTURBANCE THRU WRN CO AND ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED COME AROUND THE UPR LOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...ONCE AGAIN ENHANCING PCPN CHANCES OVR THE MTNS...AND THEN OVR ERN AREAS SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER OVR THE SERN PLAINS...BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE UPR LOW CENTER THEN MOVING INTO EXTREME NERN CO BY MIDDAY MON...BRINGING WESTERLY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD STILL BE SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE UPR LOW IS THE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO IA BY TUE MORNING...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA ON TUE NIGHT AND WED...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPS BY WED SHOULD BE AROUND AVERAGE. THU IT LOOKS LIKE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 248 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015 AT KALS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO GO DOWNHILL AFTER 00Z AS CIGS START TO DROP AND SCT SHSN MOVE INTO THE VALLEY. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SN ACCUMS BY MORNING. AT KPUB AND KCOS...IFR TO OCCASIONALLY LIFR AT KCOS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO FRI MORNING. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FRI AFTERNOON... BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHSN IS EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRI EVE. KPUB ALSO WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODT SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. TAF SITES SHOULD BE MVFR TO VFR BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT COULD SEE OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS MORE SHSN MOVE IN FROM THE SW. ROSE && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ076-077- 081>086-088-089-093>099. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ072>075- 078>080-087. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ067-068. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROSE LONG TERM...28 AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
855 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 .DISCUSSION... ...SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... ...HAZARDOUS BOATING/SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUING TOO... HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FL PENINSULA...READINGS FROM THE USAF 915HZ PROFILER SHOWS A SOLID 20-25KT NE FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR WITH NO LET UP IN SIGHT. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SOMEWHAT SPARSE MOISTURE UPSTREAM OVER THE W ATLC WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES GENERALLY AOB 70PCT. EVNG SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.0" ACRS THE STATE. THE BASIC WX PATTERN REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE MIDWEEK: BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH LCL POCKETS OF ENHANCED LOW LVL MOISTURE IN FROM THE ATLC OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE HI PRES RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP CAP ON THE LCL AIRMASS WITH LAPSE RATES AVERAGING 4.5-5.0C/KM THRU THE H85-H50 LYR. PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLD LOW-TOPPED SHRAS OVERNIGHT...MOST OF WHICH WILL DISSIPATED AS THEY CROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE NE FLOW HAS ALLOWED A FEW OF THESE TO PENETRATE INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES SINCE SUNSET...BUT IMPACT HAS BEEN NEGLIGIBLE. WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO PUT BLO 20PCT POPS IN FOR THE INTERIOR...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE FAR MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE. LONG/STRONG NE FETCH OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN THE LARGE SWELL TRAIN THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE E FL COAST FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. BREAKING WAVE ENERGY WILL CHANGE LITTLE GENERATE BEACH EROSION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HI TIDE. HIGH SURF ADVISORY/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE. && .AVIATION...THRU 29/00Z SFC WINDS: THRU 28/14Z...NE 7-11KTS COASTAL SITES...5-7KTS INTERIOR SITES. BTWN 28/14Z-28/16Z...BCMG NE 10-13KTS ALL SITES...OCNL G20KTS COASTAL SITES. VSBY/WX/CIGS: ISOLD MVFR SHRAS E OF KOBE-KSFB-KGNV...SLGT CHC OF IFR VSBYS IN BRIEF +SHRAS. && .MARINE... SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS THE PERSISTENT HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC MAINTAINS A MODERATE TO FRESH NE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. THE NE FETCH EXTENDS INTO THE ATLC WATERS E OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...ENSURING THE SWELL TRAIN WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDS THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NO SIG CHANGES WITH THE EVNG UPDATE...SEAS 6-9FT NEARSHORE AND 10-12FT OFFSHORE. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY- SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20- 60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
827 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 .UPDATE (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)... 00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE THIS EVENING OVER NORTH AMERICA. CURRENTLY SEEING THE COMPLETION OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH FRACTURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS MAIN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAS "FRACTURED" AND MOVED EASTWARD FROM A LEFT-BEHIND CLOSED UPPER LOW NOW STALLED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS ENTERING THE CONTINENT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS UPPER LOW THROUGH THE BAJA REGION OF MEXICO AND THEN RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SOUTHERN STREAM STRUCTURE VERY WELL WITH A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THESE FEATURES ALTHOUGH INTERESTING FROM A METEOROLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE...HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEP LAYER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE INFLUENCE AND PROTECTION OF THIS RIDGE FROM INCLEMENT WEATHER SHOULD ONLY INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS/FLORIDA PENINSULA/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. OUR POSITION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGH CENTER...AND NORTHWEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS PROVIDING A HEALTHY PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS TIGHTER GRADIENT KEPT A STEADY EAST/NE FLOW AND GENERALLY GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGHOUT FRIDAY. NOW WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN...THE GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVER THE LAND MASS...BUT MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE LATER EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES PREVAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. AS THE HIGH CENTER WEAKENS AND DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAX AND HENCE A RELAXING OF THE ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. REST OF TONIGHT... THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. NARRE/SREF VISIBILITY PROBS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...MAINLY FROM BROOKSVILLE NORTHWARD...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. FURTHER SOUTH FROM BROOKSVILLE...THE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY ISSUES WITH FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY... A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY START TO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BE A PROTECTING FORCE OVERHEAD. SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS...THE ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN SHALLOWER FOR SATURDAY...AND THE GRADIENT FORCING THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AND LIMIT THE OVERALL COASTAL CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE...WHILE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR 2 ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE...THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FURTHER LIMITED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST WILL CONSIST OF A MIX OF SUN AND CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE MORE OF THE SAME FOR SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. && .AVIATION... WIND GUSTS ARE RELAXING AND SHOULD SEE A GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND UNDER 10 KNOTS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. KEEPING TAFS VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR VIS/CIGS STAYS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH DAWN. SATURDAY WILL SEE NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUE WITH A SCT CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SPRINKLE FOR KLAL/KPGD/KFMY/KRSW...ALTHOUGH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH THESE LOCALIZED LIGHT SHOWERS. && .MARINE... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER NIGHT OF ELEVATED WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WINDS WILL BE RELAXING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS AND DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. AFTER TONIGHT...HEADLINE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 63 79 64 80 / 0 10 10 10 FMY 63 81 63 83 / 0 10 10 10 GIF 62 79 60 81 / 10 10 10 20 SRQ 63 79 64 81 / 0 10 0 10 BKV 61 79 60 80 / 0 10 10 10 SPG 65 79 66 79 / 0 10 10 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL MANATEE. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL SARASOTA. GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
907 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 .UPDATE... 745 PM CST GOING FORECAST TONIGHT LARGELY IN DECENT SHAPE. MAIN TWEAK WAS TO LOWER HOURLY POPS IN SOUTHERN CWA AS OBS HAVE ONLY BEEN SHOWING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS SO ITS PROBABLE NOT ALL AREAS ARE SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP. KEPT DRIZZLE WORDING GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA WITH LOW DEWPOINT SPREADS AND CONTINUED BROAD LIFT FROM UPPER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SOLID STRATUS DECK STETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS CENTRAL WI...THEREFORE LOCKED IN FULL CLOUD COVER UNTIL ABOUT MID DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS BY DAYBREAK. TWEAKED A FEW LOCATIONS UP A DEGREE OR SO CONSIDERING CLOUDS AND WINDS NOT GOING CALM. WILL BE ABLE TO LET THE LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY GO AS PLANNED AT 9PM...WITH WAVES AT SOUTH BUOY DOWN TO 8 FEET AS OF THIS WRITING AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT MARINE OB SITES. ONLY OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS LAKE EFFECT PLUME INTO FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN ON LAST SEVERAL HOURLY RUNS OF HI-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS HRRR AND HRRR-X. WITH UNIMPRESSIVE LAKE TO 850 MB DELTA T/S OF 9 OR 10 CELSIUS YIELDING LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND NOT MUCH INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT OF LAKE PLUME. KEPT "SILENT" POPS AROUND 10% IN GRIDS. RC && .SHORT TERM... 212 PM CST THROUGH SUNDAY... LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST TOGETHER WITH AN AXIS OF PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FGEN ALIGNED ALONG A COLD FRONT. FARTHER NORTH...A RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE IS STARTING TO WORK INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS EVIDENCED BY FALLING DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. AFTER THE AREA DRIES OUT THIS EVENING...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND NEAR SEASONALLY NORMAL HIGHS UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND THE CORRESPONDING HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. LENNING && .LONG TERM... 212 PM CST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT LOCALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE IN LIFTING THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. IT IS A LITTLE HARD TO BUY INTO SUCH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM A CONSIDERABLY WRAPPED UP FEATURE...BUT THE KICK APPEARS TO COME FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS APPARENT ON THE WV IMAGERY AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE IT ANALYZED WELL...SO WILL PLAN TO FOLLOW THE IDEAS OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOST OF MONDAY...OR AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF AHEAD OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH STAYS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHIELD LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING THIS WOULD ALL APPEAR TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL CLIMB OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTERS BOTH LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WRAP COLDER AIR AROUND TO THEIR SOUTH. LOW LEVELS DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVES AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE AREA AGAIN SHOULD HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER...AND CLEARING SKIES WOULD APPEAR TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS. LENNING && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z... * MVFR CIGS THROUGH SAT MORNING...POSSIBLY INTO AFTERNOON IZZI //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z... COOL BUT STILL RATHER MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT. LARGE BANK OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO KEEP TERMINALS LOCKED IN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH SAT MORNING. GUIDANCE IS ALL SUGGESTING THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING OUT OF THE MVFR CIGS WHICH COULD VERY WELL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO MAINLY EARLY PORTIONS OF THIS EVENING. IZZI //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z... * LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS SCATTERING OUT SATURDAY * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EVERYTHING ELSE IZZI //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODIC -SHRA. CHANCE OF -DZ/FG. MVFR CIGS LIKELY WITH IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. THURSDAY...VFR. IZZI && .MARINE... 212 PM CST BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LAKES FROM THE WEST...AND A COLD FRONT DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...STRONG NORTH WINDS OVER THE LAKE TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY...WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WILL BACK WESTERLY WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL VEER NORTHEASTERLY. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SLIDES NORTH OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND TURNS ALL WINDS TO THE EAST. THE EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF APPROACHES THE AREA. BY TUESDAY THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIFTING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE LAKE REMAINING EAST OF THIS LOW...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND ALL THE WAY AROUND TO NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY. LENNING && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
906 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 Cold front finally cleared entire forecast area earlier this evening. The post frontal precipitation has also been on the wane with the departure of the front and much of the associated forcing. Based on latest radar trends and mesoscale model runs, expect that most of the measurable precipitation has ended, except for areas along/south of the I-70 corridor. Still, a deep moist layer is still conducive for the patchy post frontal drizzle that is being reported. Far northern portions of the forecast area are approaching 32 degrees, and although these temperatures shouldn`t fall much further overnight, there is some threat of slick roads due to the currently wet pavement and possibly some patchy freezing drizzle. Aside from updates to PoP trends, only a few minor tweaks are needed to the nighttime forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 The cold front draped across the eastern half of the country has almost made it all the way through ILXs area this afternoon, and is currently in the vicinity of I-70. Plenty of precipitation in the region moving up from the SW. Precip is expected to continue, particularly in the south and east through the overnight. The big issues are the northern extent of the measurable precip, and the timing of the cold air moving in behind it. HRRR and NAM both trying to pull the precip further south after 06z, which should remove the threat for FZRA later tonight. The forward progression of the cooler air is also working against the rainfall as it is much drier than the airmass over Central Illinois. The dry air is slowly eroding the llvl RH and some of the weaker echos in the NW are only seeing low clouds, and not reporting precip. Even in the NW where the rain chances may recede after midnight, the low clouds and potential for a misty night remain. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday) ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 Our area should be in between shortwaves on Saturday with a definite trend south with the axis of heavier QPF from previous forecasts. With our area in between shortwave trofs on Saturday, it appears the better chances for rain will be across southeast Illinois, closer to the frontal boundary and any associated weak surface wave that will track northeast along it. Forecast soundings not very supporting of any precip further north during the day so we will see a gradual shift south with the higher POPs as the boundary gets a nudge to the south by afternoon. Forecast soundings showing some drier air (900- 800 mb)advecting south into the region during the day as well but expect quite a bit of cloudiness to hang around during the day with the lingering POPs mainly across the southern third of the forecast area by afternoon. Low POPs will remain Saturday night into Sunday with the GFS showing a weak lead shortwave coming out of the large upper low over the southwest U.S. Sunday afternoon and evening with the main push from the low to our southwest not getting into central Illinois until Monday. That is when we will see likely POPs return across the entire area with forecast soundings continuing to support rain during the day, and then as we see cold advection settle in around the backside of the upper low Monday night, we will see a mix or changeover to light snow before the main forcing/lift ejects off to the northeast on Tuesday. The main 500 mb trof axis will not shift off to our east until Wednesday, so we will continue with at least some low chance POPs Tuesday and Tuesday night associated with the cold pool aloft. Finally, by Wednesday, the system should be far enough to our northeast to have a dry forecast for the entire area along with seasonably cool temperatures. As the large upper low continues to drift away from the Midwest late Wednesday into the end of the work week, upper level heights will start to increase across the region, with more of a semi-zonal flow pattern depicted on medium range models. This should result in a rather quiet weather scene over the region with near normal temperatures and little if any rain or snow. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 552 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 Cold front cleared the central Illinois terminals earlier today, but post frontal light showers/drizzle persist. The rain/drizzle should come to an end by morning, but still expect IFR or low end MVFR conditions to persist at least into mid-morning Saturday. Then, as the rain and drizzle threat ends Saturday, and drier air filters in on the northerly winds, VSBYs should be unrestricted and CIGs will climb toward VFR by the end of the day. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BAK SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
745 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 .UPDATE... 745 PM CST GOING FORECAST TONIGHT LARGELY IN DECENT SHAPE. MAIN TWEAK WAS TO LOWER HOURLY POPS IN SOUTHERN CWA AS OBS HAVE ONLY BEEN SHOWING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS SO ITS PROBABLE NOT ALL AREAS ARE SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP. KEPT DRIZZLE WORDING GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA WITH LOW DEWPOINT SPREADS AND CONTINUED BROAD LIFT FROM UPPER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SOLID STRATUS DECK STETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS CENTRAL WI...THEREFORE LOCKED IN FULL CLOUD COVER UNTIL ABOUT MID DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS BY DAYBREAK. TWEAKED A FEW LOCATIONS UP A DEGREE OR SO CONSIDERING CLOUDS AND WINDS NOT GOING CALM. WILL BE ABLE TO LET THE LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY GO AS PLANNED AT 9PM...WITH WAVES AT SOUTH BUOY DOWN TO 8 FEET AS OF THIS WRITING AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT MARINE OB SITES. ONLY OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS LAKE EFFECT PLUME INTO FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN ON LAST SEVERAL HOURLY RUNS OF HI-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS HRRR AND HRRR-X. WITH UNIMPRESSIVE LAKE TO 850 MB DELTA T/S OF 9 OR 10 CELSIUS YIELDING LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND NOT MUCH INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT OF LAKE PLUME. KEPT "SILENT" POPS AROUND 10% IN GRIDS. RC && .SHORT TERM... 212 PM CST THROUGH SUNDAY... LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST TOGETHER WITH AN AXIS OF PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FGEN ALIGNED ALONG A COLD FRONT. FARTHER NORTH...A RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE IS STARTING TO WORK INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS EVIDENCED BY FALLING DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. AFTER THE AREA DRIES OUT THIS EVENING...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND NEAR SEASONALLY NORMAL HIGHS UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND THE CORRESPONDING HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. LENNING && .LONG TERM... 212 PM CST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT LOCALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE IN LIFTING THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. IT IS A LITTLE HARD TO BUY INTO SUCH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM A CONSIDERABLY WRAPPED UP FEATURE...BUT THE KICK APPEARS TO COME FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS APPARENT ON THE WV IMAGERY AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE IT ANALYZED WELL...SO WILL PLAN TO FOLLOW THE IDEAS OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOST OF MONDAY...OR AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF AHEAD OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH STAYS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHIELD LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING THIS WOULD ALL APPEAR TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL CLIMB OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTERS BOTH LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WRAP COLDER AIR AROUND TO THEIR SOUTH. LOW LEVELS DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVES AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE AREA AGAIN SHOULD HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER...AND CLEARING SKIES WOULD APPEAR TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS. LENNING && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z... * MVFR CIGS THROUGH SAT MORNING...POSSIBLY INTO AFTERNOON IZZI //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z... COOL BUT STILL RATHER MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT. LARGE BANK OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO KEEP TERMINALS LOCKED IN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH SAT MORNING. GUIDANCE IS ALL SUGGESTING THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING OUT OF THE MVFR CIGS WHICH COULD VERY WELL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO MAINLY EARLY PORTIONS OF THIS EVENING. IZZI //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z... * LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS SCATTERING OUT SATURDAY * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EVERYTHING ELSE IZZI //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODIC -SHRA. CHANCE OF -DZ/FG. MVFR CIGS LIKELY WITH IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. THURSDAY...VFR. IZZI && .MARINE... 212 PM CST BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LAKES FROM THE WEST...AND A COLD FRONT DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...STRONG NORTH WINDS OVER THE LAKE TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY...WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WILL BACK WESTERLY WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL VEER NORTHEASTERLY. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SLIDES NORTH OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND TURNS ALL WINDS TO THE EAST. THE EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF APPROACHES THE AREA. BY TUESDAY THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIFTING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE LAKE REMAINING EAST OF THIS LOW...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND ALL THE WAY AROUND TO NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY. LENNING && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 9 PM FRIDAY. IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 9 PM FRIDAY. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
556 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 The cold front draped across the eastern half of the country has almost made it all the way through ILXs area this afternoon, and is currently in the vicinity of I-70. Plenty of precipitation in the region moving up from the SW. Precip is expected to continue, particularly in the south and east through the overnight. The big issues are the northern extent of the measurable precip, and the timing of the cold air moving in behind it. HRRR and NAM both trying to pull the precip further south after 06z, which should remove the threat for FZRA later tonight. The forward progression of the cooler air is also working against the rainfall as it is much drier than the airmass over Central Illinois. The dry air is slowly eroding the llvl RH and some of the weaker echos in the NW are only seeing low clouds, and not reporting precip. Even in the NW where the rain chances may recede after midnight, the low clouds and potential for a misty night remain. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday) ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 Our area should be in between shortwaves on Saturday with a definite trend south with the axis of heavier QPF from previous forecasts. With our area in between shortwave trofs on Saturday, it appears the better chances for rain will be across southeast Illinois, closer to the frontal boundary and any associated weak surface wave that will track northeast along it. Forecast soundings not very supporting of any precip further north during the day so we will see a gradual shift south with the higher POPs as the boundary gets a nudge to the south by afternoon. Forecast soundings showing some drier air (900- 800 mb)advecting south into the region during the day as well but expect quite a bit of cloudiness to hang around during the day with the lingering POPs mainly across the southern third of the forecast area by afternoon. Low POPs will remain Saturday night into Sunday with the GFS showing a weak lead shortwave coming out of the large upper low over the southwest U.S. Sunday afternoon and evening with the main push from the low to our southwest not getting into central Illinois until Monday. That is when we will see likely POPs return across the entire area with forecast soundings continuing to support rain during the day, and then as we see cold advection settle in around the backside of the upper low Monday night, we will see a mix or changeover to light snow before the main forcing/lift ejects off to the northeast on Tuesday. The main 500 mb trof axis will not shift off to our east until Wednesday, so we will continue with at least some low chance POPs Tuesday and Tuesday night associated with the cold pool aloft. Finally, by Wednesday, the system should be far enough to our northeast to have a dry forecast for the entire area along with seasonably cool temperatures. As the large upper low continues to drift away from the Midwest late Wednesday into the end of the work week, upper level heights will start to increase across the region, with more of a semi-zonal flow pattern depicted on medium range models. This should result in a rather quiet weather scene over the region with near normal temperatures and little if any rain or snow. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 552 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 Cold front cleared the central Illinois terminals earlier today, but post frontal light showers/drizzle persist. The rain/drizzle should come to an end by morning, but still expect IFR or low end MVFR conditions to persist at least into mid-morning Saturday. Then, as the rain and drizzle threat ends Saturday, and drier air filters in on the northerly winds, VSBYs should be unrestricted and CIGs will climb toward VFR by the end of the day. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
920 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 CHILLY...WET AND RAW CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK...USHERING IN MORE RAIN AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 920 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGESTING THE FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST BORDER ZONES JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MAIN REGION OF LIFT DIMINISHES...BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME RAIN CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AS OVERRUNNING LINGERS ALONG FRONT. ALL IN ALL...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS MADE ON THE UPDATE WILL BE FOR THE WINDS DUE TO FRONTAL POSITION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE SEEN A 7 TO 10 DEGREE DROP WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT 20Z...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY ALIGNED FROM JUST NORTH OF KMIE W/SW THROUGH CENTRAL VERMILLION COUNTY. TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE RAIN AND TEMPERATURE SHIFT ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE NEAR TERM AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD TREK THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS THE INDY METRO OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE METRO AREA TO THE SOUTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE BOUNDARY EVEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT STRETCHES OUT. WHILE THE JET WEAKENS...DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH THE REGION REMAINING NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE DEPARTING UPPER JET OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THIS POINTS TO CONTINUED RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RATES SETTING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. 100 POPS REMAINS VALID FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO A RAW AND CHILLY N/NE FLOW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS...TOOK CURRENT OBS AND UTILIZED THE 18Z RAP AS A STARTING POINT FOR HOURLY TEMP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS WITH THE FRONT SLIDING SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT LIES AT 12Z SATURDAY WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW COOL FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LOCALES FROM BEDFORD THROUGH SEYMOUR AND NORTH VERNON HANG UP CLOSER TO 50. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH A PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A BRIEF BREAK WEDGED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY. AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED HERE THROUGH THE DAY. THE DEEPER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WELL BEHIND THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING CLOUDY INTO SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DRAWING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL BECOME ZONAL AND EVEN BRIEFLY RIDGE AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO SHIFT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BULK OF THE RAINFALL SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND GIVE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA A RESPITE FROM THE WET PATTERN. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY BUT MOST SHOULD STAY DRY. ELONGATED AND STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LEADING TO A RESUMPTION OF THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...DEEPENING QUICKLY AS IT PULLS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROMPT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT. TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PLAY AT THIS POINT BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OP GFS FASTER IN BRINGING PRECIP BACK NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL REINTRODUCE LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH HIGHER POPS MONDAY AS STEADIER RAINS ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMPS...A MOS BLEND OVERALL WORKED WELL FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR LOWS AS MAV AND MET GUIDANCE LOOKED TOO AGGRESSIVE AND FAR TOO COLD WITH LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO START THE LONG TERM...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH IT. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY AND WARM BY A COUPLE DEGREES BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/00Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 605 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS LIKELY MOST OF THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES WITH FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT MOST SITES THROUGHOUT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 14-15KT AT TIMES. A PERIODIC GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL BE TOO INFREQUENT TO MENTION. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IFR OR WORSE THROUGHOUT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND/OR SOME DRIZZLE. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 CHILLY...WET AND RAW CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK...USHERING IN MORE RAIN AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE SEEN A 7 TO 10 DEGREE DROP WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT 20Z...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY ALIGNED FROM JUST NORTH OF KMIE W/SW THROUGH CENTRAL VERMILLION COUNTY. TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE RAIN AND TEMPERATURE SHIFT ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE NEAR TERM AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD TREK THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS THE INDY METRO OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE METRO AREA TO THE SOUTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE BOUNDARY EVEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT STRETCHES OUT. WHILE THE JET WEAKENS...DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH THE REGION REMAINING NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE DEPARTING UPPER JET OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THIS POINTS TO CONTINUED RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RATES SETTING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. 100 POPS REMAINS VALID FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO A RAW AND CHILLY N/NE FLOW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS...TOOK CURRENT OBS AND UTILIZED THE 18Z RAP AS A STARTING POINT FOR HOURLY TEMP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS WITH THE FRONT SLIDING SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT LIES AT 12Z SATURDAY WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW COOL FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LOCALES FROM BEDFORD THROUGH SEYMOUR AND NORTH VERNON HANG UP CLOSER TO 50. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH A PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A BRIEF BREAK WEDGED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY. AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED HERE THROUGH THE DAY. THE DEEPER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WELL BEHIND THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING CLOUDY INTO SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DRAWING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL BECOME ZONAL AND EVEN BRIEFLY RIDGE AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO SHIFT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BULK OF THE RAINFALL SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND GIVE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA A RESPITE FROM THE WET PATTERN. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY BUT MOST SHOULD STAY DRY. ELONGATED AND STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LEADING TO A RESUMPTION OF THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...DEEPENING QUICKLY AS IT PULLS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROMPT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT. TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PLAY AT THIS POINT BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OP GFS FASTER IN BRINGING PRECIP BACK NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL REINTRODUCE LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH HIGHER POPS MONDAY AS STEADIER RAINS ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMPS...A MOS BLEND OVERALL WORKED WELL FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR LOWS AS MAV AND MET GUIDANCE LOOKED TOO AGGRESSIVE AND FAR TOO COLD WITH LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO START THE LONG TERM...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH IT. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY AND WARM BY A COUPLE DEGREES BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/00Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 605 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS LIKELY MOST OF THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES WITH FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT MOST SITES THROUGHOUT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 14-15KT AT TIMES. A PERIODIC GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL BE TOO INFREQUENT TO MENTION. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IFR OR WORSE THROUGHOUT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND/OR SOME DRIZZLE. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
823 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 816 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA CURRENTLY. THIS CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WILL CREATE A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES. THE ICE ACCUMULATION WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT AS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE LAST NIGHT. NO ADVISORY FOR ICE ACCUMULATION IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SNOW LARGE CLOSED LOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH EXTENSIVE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHEAST US. DRY LAYER (APPARENT ON SATELLITE) IS STILL INFLUENCE OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPLICATE PRECIP TYPE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...STAGNANT/COLD PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH POST FRONTAL/COLD AIR MASS LINGERING IN PLACE. WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REMAIN IN PLACE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES/TYPE IS THE DEPTH/NATURE OF THE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER OUR CWA. A DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 6000 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPED OVER NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AND ADVECTED SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA PUTTING AN END TO PRECIP. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF RETURN FLOW/UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE -3 TO -8C LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS FLOW ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AS NORTHERLY WINDS (INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE) SHOULD KEEP A PERSISTENT DRY LAYER IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL OR AT THE VERY LEAST COVERAGE. GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ON SHIFTING BL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. A COMPLICATED PRECIP TYPE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN IF THE RETURN FLOW DOESN`T OCCUR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS END UP OVERDONE. AFTER COLLABORATION...DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND I PLAN ON HANDLING THE POTENTIAL WITH SPS FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN UTAH INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLAN TO GO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT SINCE FORCING AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS DECREASING AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SUNDAY. FORCING INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND GOES INTO THE NIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING AS MID LEVELS SATURATE AND ICE FORMS IN THE COLUMN. OVERNIGHT MID LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS DECREASING AGAIN SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE LIGHT SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND THE MID 30S MONDAY. IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE FA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. CONSEQUENTLY, POPS WILL BE NIL. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS MODERATING TO THE LOWER 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MODERATING TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 425 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE SOME. HOWEVER DUE TO THE LACK OF INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION...AM NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP BELOW MVFR AT THIS TIME. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JTL/CLT SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
427 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SNOW LARGE CLOSED LOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH EXTENSIVE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHEAST US. DRY LAYER (APPARENT ON SATELLITE) IS STILL INFLUENCE OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPLICATE PRECIP TYPE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...STAGNANT/COLD PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH POST FRONTAL/COLD AIR MASS LINGERING IN PLACE. WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REMAIN IN PLACE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES/TYPE IS THE DEPTH/NATURE OF THE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER OUR CWA. A DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 6000 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPED OVER NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AND ADVECTED SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA PUTTING AN END TO PRECIP. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF RETURN FLOW/UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE -3 TO -8C LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS FLOW ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AS NORTHERLY WINDS (INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE) SHOULD KEEP A PERSISTENT DRY LAYER IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL OR AT THE VERY LEAST COVERAGE. GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ON SHIFTING BL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. A COMPLICATED PRECIP TYPE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN IF THE RETURN FLOW DOESN`T OCCUR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS END UP OVERDONE. AFTER COLLABORATION...DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND I PLAN ON HANDLING THE POTENTIAL WITH SPS FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN UTAH INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLAN TO GO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT SINCE FORCING AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS DECREASING AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SUNDAY. FORCING INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND GOES INTO THE NIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING AS MID LEVELS SATURATE AND ICE FORMS IN THE COLUMN. OVERNIGHT MID LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS DECREASING AGAIN SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE LIGHT SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND THE MID 30S MONDAY. IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE FA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. CONSEQUENTLY, POPS WILL BE NIL. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS MODERATING TO THE LOWER 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MODERATING TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 425 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE SOME. HOWEVER DUE TO THE LACK OF INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION...AM NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP BELOW MVFR AT THIS TIME. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1050+MB SURFACE HIGH PRES (+3 ST DEV) STILL CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND RIDGING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE, SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL MISSOURI VALLEY. 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SC PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC COUNTIES THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH EAST FLOW IN LOW LEVELS. AREA OF ADDITIONAL CLOUDS PUSHING EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. AS PER USUAL, THE NAM TENDS TO OVERPLAY ITS HAND WITH ITS PROGGED LLVL MOISTURE FIELDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND ACCORDINGLY KEEPS THE AREA IN BKN TO OVC CLOUDS. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICTION OF THE RAP AND HRRR OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...MIXING OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS, THE MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH ANOTHER DRY, MILD DAY EXPECTED. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR CENTRAL AND E/SE SECTIONS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S IN THE NW...LOW TO MID40S I-95 CORRIDOR...AND U40S TO AROUND 50 SE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND MILDER WX EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROF JUST OFF THE SE COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT MSTR / PCPN PROGGED TO STAY SE OF THE LOCAL AREA AND OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. THUS...SILENT POPS (<14%) CONTINUE. H85 TEMPS/THICKNESS TOOLS BOTH SUPPORT HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70. 00Z/26 MODELS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT. PREFERRED GFS/ECMWF BLENDED SOLUTION DEPICTS A WEAKENING BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SAT NGT. LITTLE SUPPORT FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA ON SATURDAY, AND HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN AND PUSH BACK POP...KEEPING SAT AND MUCH OF SAT NIGHT DRY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA (EXCEPTION IS SLIGHT POP OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS). HAVE ALSO PUSHED TEMPS UPWARD IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME MORE TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR OUR AREA ON SAT. INCRG CLDNS SHOULD TEMPER HIGHS A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT THINKING IS THE UPTICK IN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY IS JUSTIFIED. BUMPED MAXIMA UP 2-3 DEG INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH...BUT WITH COOLER U50S OVER THE ERN SHORE / NRN NECK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BLOCKY PATTERN PERSISTS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER THE WRN CONUS...LENDING TO A DIFFICULT/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO RESIDE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SWD DURING THE DAY SUN...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE DAY SUN. FRONT WEAKENS SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...RIDGING SWD INTO THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARISE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OH VALLEY MON AND TUE. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MON. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF BEGINNING MON NIGHT AND TUE...WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE CHANCE POPS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. DRYING TREND EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER STEADY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THRU THE EXTENDED. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG THIS MORNING AS AREAS OF FROST BURN OFF AND CONDENSE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL PREVENT AN INCOMING MARINE CLOUD DECK FROM IMPACTING KECG. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A COMBINATION OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND FAIR WX CUMULUS AROUND 6 KFT AGL THIS AFTN...DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STALL/WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF -SHRA (IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL TAF SITES) AS THE FRONT STALLS/WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STACKED IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY AND FRIDAY. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10-15KT...SEAS 3-4FT...AND WAVES 1-2FT. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONGER RESULTANT WINDS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND A LONG NE-E FETCH WILL PUSH SEAS TOWARD 5 FT EARLY THIS EVENING IN FAR SRN WATERS...WHICH WILL THEN BUILD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE THIS EVENING FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STALL/WEAKEN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAINTAIN A NLY WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT. SEAS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED AT 4-6FT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO NLY ONSHORE WINDS AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 3-5FT SAT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
353 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1050+MB SURFACE HIGH PRES (+3 ST DEV) STILL CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND RIDGING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE, SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL MISSOURI VALLEY. 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SC PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC COUNTIES THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH EAST FLOW IN LOW LEVELS. AREA OF ADDITIONAL CLOUDS PUSHING EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. AS PER USUAL, THE NAM TENDS TO OVERPLAY ITS HAND WITH ITS PROGGED LLVL MOISTURE FIELDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND ACCORDINGLY KEEPS THE AREA IN BKN TO OVC CLOUDS. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICTION OF THE RAP AND HRRR OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...MIXING OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS, THE MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH ANOTHER DRY, MILD DAY EXPECTED. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR CENTRAL AND E/SE SECTIONS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S IN THE NW...LOW TO MID40S I-95 CORRIDOR...AND U40S TO AROUND 50 SE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND MILDER WX EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROF JUST OFF THE SE COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT MSTR / PCPN PROGGED TO STAY SE OF THE LOCAL AREA AND OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. THUS...SILENT POPS (<14%) CONTINUE. H85 TEMPS/THICKNESS TOOLS BOTH SUPPORT HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70. 00Z/26 MODELS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT. PREFERRED GFS/ECMWF BLENDED SOLUTION DEPICTS A WEAKENING BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SAT NGT. LITTLE SUPPORT FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA ON SATURDAY, AND HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN AND PUSH BACK POP...KEEPING SAT AND MUCH OF SAT NIGHT DRY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA (EXCEPTION IS SLIGHT POP OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS). HAVE ALSO PUSHED TEMPS UPWARD IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME MORE TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR OUR AREA ON SAT. INCRG CLDNS SHOULD TEMPER HIGHS A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT THINKING IS THE UPTICK IN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY IS JUSTIFIED. BUMPED MAXIMA UP 2-3 DEG INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH...BUT WITH COOLER U50S OVER THE ERN SHORE / NRN NECK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BLOCKY PATTERN PERSISTS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER THE WRN CONUS...LENDING TO A DIFFICULT/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO RESIDE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SWD DURING THE DAY SUN...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE DAY SUN. FRONT WEAKENS SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...RIDGING SWD INTO THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARISE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OH VALLEY MON AND TUE. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MON. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF BEGINNING MON NIGHT AND TUE...WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE CHANCE POPS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. DRYING TREND EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER STEADY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THRU THE EXTENDED. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS AREAS OF FROST BURN OFF AND CONDENSE AROUND 26/1200Z. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL PREVENT AN INCOMING MARINE CLOUD DECK FROM IMPACTING KECG. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A COMBINATION OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND FAIR WX CUMULUS AROUND 6 KFT AGL THIS AFTN...DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STALL/WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF -SHRA (IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL TAF SITES) AS THE FRONT STALLS/WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STACKED IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY AND FRIDAY. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10-15KT...SEAS 3-4FT...AND WAVES 1-2FT. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONGER RESULTANT WINDS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND A LONG NE-E FETCH WILL PUSH SEAS TOWARD 5 FT EARLY THIS EVENING IN FAR SRN WATERS...WHICH WILL THEN BUILD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE THIS EVENING FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STALL/WEAKEN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAINTAIN A NLY WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT. SEAS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED AT 4-6FT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO NLY ONSHORE WINDS AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 3-5FT SAT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
313 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1050+MB SURFACE HIGH PRES (+3 ST DEV) STILL CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND RIDGING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE, SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL MISSOURI VALLEY. 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SC PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC COUNTIES THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH EAST FLOW IN LOW LEVELS. AREA OF ADDITIONAL CLOUDS PUSHING EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. AS PER USUAL, THE NAM TENDS TO OVERPLAY ITS HAND WITH ITS PROGGED LLVL MOISTURE FIELDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND ACCORDINGLY KEEPS THE AREA IN BKN TO OVC CLOUDS. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICTION OF THE RAP AND HRRR OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...MIXING OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS, THE MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH ANOTHER DRY, MILD DAY EXPECTED. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR CENTRAL AND E/SE SECTIONS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S IN THE NW...LOW TO MID40S I-95 CORRIDOR...AND U40S TO AROUND 50 SE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND MILDER WX EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROF JUST OFF THE SE COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT MSTR / PCPN PROGGED TO STAY SE OF THE LOCAL AREA AND OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. THUS...SILENT POPS (<14%) CONTINUE. H85 TEMPS/THICKNESS TOOLS BOTH SUPPORT HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70. 00Z/26 MODELS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT. PREFERRED GFS/ECMWF BLENDED SOLUTION DEPICTS A WEAKENING BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SAT NGT. LITTLE SUPPORT FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA ON SATURDAY, AND HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN AND PUSH BACK POP...KEEPING SAT AND MUCH OF SAT NIGHT DRY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA (EXCEPTION IS SLIGHT POP OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS). HAVE ALSO PUSHED TEMPS UPWARD IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME MORE TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR OUR AREA ON SAT. INCRG CLDNS SHOULD TEMPER HIGHS A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT THINKING IS THE UPTICK IN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY IS JUSTIFIED. BUMPED MAXIMA UP 2-3 DEG INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH...BUT WITH COOLER U50S OVER THE ERN SHORE / NRN NECK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BLOCKY PATTERN PERSISTS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER THE WRN CONUS...LENDING TO A DIFFICULT/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO RESIDE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SWD DURING THE DAY SUN...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE DAY SUN. FRONT WEAKENS SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...RIDGING SWD INTO THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARISE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OH VALLEY MON AND TUE. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MON. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF BEGINNING MON NIGHT AND TUE...WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE CHANCE POPS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. DRYING TREND EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER STEADY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THRU THE EXTENDED. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS AREAS OF FROST BURN OFF AND CONDENSE AROUND 26/1200Z. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL PREVENT AN INCOMING MARINE CLOUD DECK FROM IMPACTING KECG. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A COMBINATION OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND FAIR WX CUMULUS AROUND 6 KFT AGL THIS AFTN...DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STALL/WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF -SHRA (IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL TAF SITES) AS THE FRONT STALLS/WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. && .MARINE... && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
607 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 313 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NRN BRANCH NW FLOW ALF PENETRATING INTO THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF PERSISTENT WRN TROF/SE RDG SRN BRANCH FLOW REGIME DOMINATING THE CONUS. NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE NCNTRL PLAINS IS ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH UPSTREAM 12Z H85 TEMPS -13C AT INL AND -14C AT YPL. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LK EFFECT CLD COVER OVER THE CWA...BUT LO SUBSIDENCE INVRN...WITH INVRN BASE AT 12Z NEAR H9-925 AT INL AND YPL...HAS GREATLY LIMITED THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE LES IMPACTING AREAS NEAR LK SUP. THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS...WITH 12Z PWAT ABOUT 0.08 INCH AT BOTH INL/YPL /ABOUT 35 PCT OF NORMAL/...HAS ALSO HAD A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON PCPN. LO TEMPS THIS MRNG WERE QUITE FRIGID AND AS LO AS -5 TO -10F UNDER SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM THE HI CENTER IN THE DAKOTAS INTO NW ONTARIO. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LO CLDS TRENDS/TEMPS AS DRY HI PRES RDG IS FCST SLIDE SLOWLY SE THRU THE UPR LKS THRU SAT. TNGT...AS SFC RDG AXIS/SHARP ACYC LLVL FLOW UNDER AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE/DRY AIR SETTLES ACRS UPR MI...EXPECT LINGERING LK CLDS TO CLR. WITH PWATS IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH RANGE/LIGHT WINDS/VERY LO TEMPS OBSVD UPSTREAM THIS MRNG... WL FAVOR THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FCST...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH SN COVER. ARRIVAL OF SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STEADY W WINDS/ PERHAPS MORE PERSISTENT LK CLDS OVER THE KEWEENAW ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE RDG AXIS PASSING TO THE S WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP THERE. SAT...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/STEADY W WINDS UNDER THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STEADY W FLOW TO THE N OF HI PRES RDG AXIS FCST TO STRETCH FM MN ACRS WI INTO NRN LOWER MI ARE FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS INTO THE 0C TO -2C RANGE BY 00Z SUN. UNDER LINGERING AXIS OF DRY AIR...EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH LOWERING SUN ANGLE WL LIMIT DEGREE OF DIURNAL HEATING...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LO/MID 30S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP THE ARCTIC AIR TRAPPED OVER FAR NORTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND LOOKING AT THE CFSV2 AND LONG RANGE ECMWF ENSEMBLES...THAT PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF DECEMBER. JUMPING BACK TO THE SHORTER TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH AND A UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT WILL LEAVE THE AREA THE AREA WITH NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD. THERE IS ONE THING TO MENTION. A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY VEER THE BL WINDS AROUND TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR A TIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TURN TO THE NORTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 920MB MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S MODEL RUNS...THE CLOUD DEPTH IS SHALLOWER AND VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. WILL FOLLOW THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD COVER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BASED OFF THE INDICATED LOW CLOUDS ON THE NAM/GFS FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING...WOULD EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO PUSH BACK OUT OF THE AREA. WITH AS LOW AS THE CLOUDS ARE INDICATED IN MODELS TODAY...MAY NEED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL FOR SUNDAY MORNING. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LOW. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED LOWER ON QPF VALUES SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR GENERALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WHICH INCREASES THE RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.P.. EXPECT THE MAIN PUSH OF PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THEN EXPECT JUST LIGHT PRECIPITATION THE REST OF THE WAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THE FAR WEST COULD SEE SOME MODERATE SNOW AS THE AREA OF FORCING FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND IS FOCUSED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE WESTERN U.P.. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...DON/T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW...AS THE MID LEVELS QUICKLY DRY OUT DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH COLDER THAN -5C. THAT UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 607 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WSW TNGT. EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CIGS TO GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX AND KSAW THIS EVENING. KIWD WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 313 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 AS A HI PRES RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...A STRENGTHENING WSW WIND UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND LO PRES CROSSING NRN ONTARIO. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES TYPICALLY ACCENTUATE THIS FLOW. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL DIMINISH STEADILY LATER ON SAT AND VEER TO THE NE THRU SUN AS A WEAK LO PRES TROF/SLACKER GRADIENT DIP INTO THE UPPER LAKES AND HI PRES BUILDS INTO NW ONTARIO. ONCE THE HI SHIFTS TO THE E...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS ON MON. A STRONGER E WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL THEN DEVELOP ON TUE AS A DEEP LO PRES MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NNW ON WED FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS LO TO THE E. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...07 MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
538 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 225 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE 15Z WPC ANALYSIS AT AROUND 1042 HPA WHICH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS HIGH GRADUALLY MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. TO THE NORTH A VERY WEAK FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION TONIGHT FOR A BRIEF TIME...BUT WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE LIFT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. AS TEMPERATURES FALL ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME SHALLOW FOG WHICH DEVELOPS. DESPITE A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WORKING ITS WAY IN BOTH HRRR/RAP AND NAM ALL DEPICT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT SINCE THE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED LIMITED WORDING TO JUST PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. SUNNY ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER SIOUX FALLS SD. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS...COLDEST FROM THE TWIN PORTS EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO. WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER THE OPEN LAKES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND ON AREA WEBCAMS SOME OF THE INLAND LAKES FINALLY HAVE ICE DEVELOPING. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S ON SATURDAY...WHICH JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 225 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING COVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW ARRIVES FROM THE SW AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN IOWA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES AND HOW IT AFFECTS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE ON THE PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AS THE DRY AIR WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. AS SFC TEMPS WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...WILL KEEP THE RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM PRIOR FORECAST AS SOME OF THE PCPN WILL REACH THE GROUND AS SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED ON TUESDAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AS EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW MAY CHANGE AND WOULD ALTER SNOW AMOUNT AXIS. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 538 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LATEST TAF CYCLE IS LLWS AT KHIB AND KINL...ALONG WITH FOG AT KHYR. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT PER THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BRING LLWS TO KHIB AND KINL UNTIL 14Z. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...KHYR SHOULD SEE FOG DEVELOP AROUND 06Z AND PERSIST UNTIL 12Z. THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS IFR OR LOWER VISBY POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF KHYR. STILL UNCERTAIN ON HOW WIDESPREAD THESE LOWER VISBYS WILL BE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY KEPT KHYR AT MVFR VISBY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 9 31 15 33 / 0 0 0 0 INL 11 30 13 30 / 0 0 0 0 BRD 8 33 14 34 / 0 0 0 0 HYR 3 32 12 35 / 0 0 0 0 ASX 8 35 16 35 / 0 0 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJM LONG TERM...GSF AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 FIRST...HERE WERE THE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE IMPENDING SYSTEM FOR TODAY. THE POP GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENED QUITE A BIT...PULLING THE MENTIONABLE PRECIP LINE DOWN TO ABOUT A REDWOOD FALLS...ST. MICHAEL TO CAMBRIDGE LINE. TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WAS DELAYED A LITTLE SOUTHEAST OF A FAIRMONT...RED WING TO LADYSMITH LINE. QPF WAS REDUCED SOME...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST. WITH LOWER QPF AND A DELAYED TRANSITION TO SNOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK AS WELL...WITH UP TO ABOUT 2 INCHES NOW FORECAST IN THE ADVISORY WITH AMOUNTS IN THE TWIN CITIES RANGING FROM A TRACE IN THE NW METRO WITH AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH IN THE SE METRO. FINALLY...WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIP SOME THIS MORNING AND STARTED PUSHING THE END OF PRECIP TO THE EAST A BIT FASTER TONIGHT. THE FRONT THAT WORKED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS STRETCHED OUT FROM THE NE TX PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO THE I-90/I-94 SPLIT IN WI AND ON UP TOWARD THE MARQUETTE MICHIGAN AREA AT 3 AM. SPC MESOANLYIS SHOWS THAT FGEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS REALLY CENTERED DOWN IN THE 925- 850MB AREA...WITH NOT MUCH FGEN NOTED AT H7. WITH THE FORCING DOWN LOW...THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CLOSER TO THE FRONT...HENCE THE NUDGING OF QPF TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN FACT...EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS NUDGING THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTHEAST...WITH OUR BEST SHOT AT PRECIP COMING FROM THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY STARTING TO BLOSSOM ON RADAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COMING OUT OF NEW MEXICO RIGHT NOW GOING MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE MPX AREA...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN HOW FAR THIS PRECIP CURRENTLY IS /NW TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OPPOSED TO WRN KS...WHICH IS WHERE MODELS WITH A MORE NW SOLUTION WERE SHOWING IT SHOULD BE/. FOR P-TYPE...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A MESS. FIRST OF ALL...THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH EAU CLAIRE STILL ABOVE 40 AT 4 AM. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CAMS ALONG WITH THE RAP SHOW A MELTING WARM NOSE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS SC/SE MN UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z...WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING MORE SLEET/FZRA INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY SWITCHING TO SNOW THERE. THE WARMER TEMPS THIS MORNING DO NOT HELP THINGS EITHER...ESPECIALLY IN WI...WHERE EAU CLAIRE MAY NOT SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER 21Z...WHICH IS A BIG REASON WHY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK TO BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OUT IN THE FAR ERN MPX CWA. FOR TONIGHT...STILL HAVE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO FZDZ AS THE PRECIP IS MOVING OUT...THOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE...AS THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ICE CRYSTALS WILL LIKELY SIGNAL THE END OF PRECIP AS WELL. WITH THE ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...SAW NO NEED TO CHANGE IT WITH THOSE AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TODAY...THOUGH WITH CURRENT AMOUNTS EXPECTED...WOULD HAVE PROBABLY NOT ISSUED AN ADVY IF ONE WERE NOT ALREADY OUT THERE. TONIGHT...WE SEE STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE CLEAR SKIES WITH CONTINUE COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL START TO BLACK FRIDAY...WITH LOCATIONS OUT IN WEST CENTRAL MN LIKELY STARTING OUT NEAR 10 DEGREES. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE MONTH SO FAR/ALTHOUGH THATS NOT SAYING MUCH BECAUSE THE FORECAST AREA IS AROUND +9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER./ ONE THING OF NOTE ONFRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS THE EXTREMELY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH HAVE PWATS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGY MINIMUM BETWEEN 0.07-0.10". THE AIRMASS MODERATES THIS WEEKEND AND SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH MAINLY BROWN GROUND SHOULD GET OUR HIGHS INTO THE MID 30S...RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW - THE ONE THATS CURRENTLY SPINNING AWAY ACROSS THE WEST COAST. UNLIKE...THE SNOW EVENT /OR LACK THERE OF/ TODAY THAT HAS P-TYPE QUESTIONS AND AN FGEN BAND THAT HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...THERE IS ACTUALLY DECENT CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT MON-TUE. WE ALWAYS HAVE GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH EVENTS LIKE TODAY BECAUSE THE BAND OF SNOW IS FOCUSED AND NOT VERY WIDE IN SCALE. SO...IF YOU DON`T GET THE LOCATION QUITE RIGHT...LOCATIONS JUST OUTSIDE THE BAND GET VERY LITTLE SNOW...AND THAT`S WITHOUT CONSIDERING THE WARMER TEMPS AND REDUCED SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO SOME OF THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN/SLEET AS IS THE CASE WITH TODAYS EVENT. THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS PASSAGE WILL BE SLOW AND THE THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A 24-30HR WINDOW WITH LIFT OVER A VERY LARGE SPATIAL AREA. IN FACT...THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OFF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE MEASURABLE SNOW FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO ILLINOIS.THEREFORE...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE OUR FORECAST FOR PROBABILITY OF SNOW INCREASE IN THAT MON-TUE TIME FRAME. IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT A LOT OF LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN MN/WI...BUT IT WOULD OCCUR OVER A PROLONGED WINDOW. UNLIKE BANDED SNOW /LIKE TODAY/...THE WIDESPREAD FORCING MEANS IT WILL BE TOUGHER FOR THIS ONE TO "MISS" THE AREA COMPLETELY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015 MIXED PRECIP HAS PRETTY MUCH CHANGED TO SNOW EXCEPT IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREA FROM KEAU TO KAEL...BUT THIS AREA SHOULD ALSO TRANSITION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WITH NNW WINDS. SWATH OF PRECIP FROM NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISC. WEST CENTRAL WISC WILL BE THE LAST TO END PRECIP...BUT SWATH HAS BEEN SHIFTING SE A BIT...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST WILL END AT KEAU AROUND 00Z WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHTER PRECIP LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. OTHER ISSUE IS MVFR CEILINGS IN NORTHERN MN INTO MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO. THE MORE EXTENSIVE MVFR CEILINGS ARE OVER MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN MN INTO ONTARIO. WITH THE NNW WIND... THESE ARE LIKELY TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MN AND WISC...SO THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS. LESS CERTAIN IS WEST CENTRAL INTO SW MN...SINCE THERE IS MORE OF A PATCHWORK OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME...AND SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS PATCHWORK CONTINUING INTO WRN MN. THEREFORE HAVE SCT/BKN AT KAXN AND KRWF. KMSP...SNOW WITH IFR VISIBILITIES WILL SOON TAPER OFF AROUND 19Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR VISIBILITY FOR A COUPLE HOURS AND THEN ENDING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT... WITH ONE POSSIBLE BREAK TO VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE MVFR MAY SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MN NORTH OF THE SNOW. BUT MORE MVFR CEILINGS ARE ON THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHEASTERN MN AND ONTARIO. SO ANY SCATTERING OUT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL THEN BE HOW LONG THE MVFR CEILINGS LAST. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST TIL AT LEAST 06Z...BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE...WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT TAKES 09Z-12Z BEFORE WE SEE ALL VFR. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS. SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS. SUN...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VRB. MON...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW. WINDS E 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ024>028. MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ077- 078-084-085-091>093. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...CLF AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
542 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 FIRST...HERE WERE THE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE IMPENDING SYSTEM FOR TODAY. THE POP GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENED QUITE A BIT...PULLING THE MENTIONABLE PRECIP LINE DOWN TO ABOUT A REDWOOD FALLS...ST. MICHAEL TO CAMBRIDGE LINE. TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WAS DELAYED A LITTLE SOUTHEAST OF A FAIRMONT...RED WING TO LADYSMITH LINE. QPF WAS REDUCED SOME...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST. WITH LOWER QPF AND A DELAYED TRANSITION TO SNOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK AS WELL...WITH UP TO ABOUT 2 INCHES NOW FORECAST IN THE ADVISORY WITH AMOUNTS IN THE TWIN CITIES RANGING FROM A TRACE IN THE NW METRO WITH AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH IN THE SE METRO. FINALLY...WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIP SOME THIS MORNING AND STARTED PUSHING THE END OF PRECIP TO THE EAST A BIT FASTER TONIGHT. THE FRONT THAT WORKED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS STRETCHED OUT FROM THE NE TX PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO THE I-90/I-94 SPLIT IN WI AND ON UP TOWARD THE MARQUETTE MICHIGAN AREA AT 3 AM. SPC MESOANLYIS SHOWS THAT FGEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS REALLY CENTERED DOWN IN THE 925- 850MB AREA...WITH NOT MUCH FGEN NOTED AT H7. WITH THE FORCING DOWN LOW...THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CLOSER TO THE FRONT...HENCE THE NUDGING OF QPF TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN FACT...EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS NUDGING THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTHEAST...WITH OUR BEST SHOT AT PRECIP COMING FROM THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY STARTING TO BLOSSOM ON RADAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COMING OUT OF NEW MEXICO RIGHT NOW GOING MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE MPX AREA...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN HOW FAR THIS PRECIP CURRENTLY IS /NW TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OPPOSED TO WRN KS...WHICH IS WHERE MODELS WITH A MORE NW SOLUTION WERE SHOWING IT SHOULD BE/. FOR P-TYPE...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A MESS. FIRST OF ALL...THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH EAU CLAIRE STILL ABOVE 40 AT 4 AM. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CAMS ALONG WITH THE RAP SHOW A MELTING WARM NOSE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS SC/SE MN UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z...WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING MORE SLEET/FZRA INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY SWITCHING TO SNOW THERE. THE WARMER TEMPS THIS MORNING DO NOT HELP THINGS EITHER...ESPECIALLY IN WI...WHERE EAU CLAIRE MAY NOT SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER 21Z...WHICH IS A BIG REASON WHY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK TO BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OUT IN THE FAR ERN MPX CWA. FOR TONIGHT...STILL HAVE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO FZDZ AS THE PRECIP IS MOVING OUT...THOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE...AS THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ICE CRYSTALS WILL LIKELY SIGNAL THE END OF PRECIP AS WELL. WITH THE ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...SAW NO NEED TO CHANGE IT WITH THOSE AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TODAY...THOUGH WITH CURRENT AMOUNTS EXPECTED...WOULD HAVE PROBABLY NOT ISSUED AN ADVY IF ONE WERE NOT ALREADY OUT THERE. TONIGHT...WE SEE STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE CLEAR SKIES WITH CONTINUE COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL START TO BLACK FRIDAY...WITH LOCATIONS OUT IN WEST CENTRAL MN LIKELY STARTING OUT NEAR 10 DEGREES. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE MONTH SO FAR/ALTHOUGH THATS NOT SAYING MUCH BECAUSE THE FORECAST AREA IS AROUND +9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER./ ONE THING OF NOTE ONFRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS THE EXTREMELY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH HAVE PWATS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGY MINIMUM BETWEEN 0.07-0.10". THE AIRMASS MODERATES THIS WEEKEND AND SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH MAINLY BROWN GROUND SHOULD GET OUR HIGHS INTO THE MID 30S...RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW - THE ONE THATS CURRENTLY SPINNING AWAY ACROSS THE WEST COAST. UNLIKE...THE SNOW EVENT /OR LACK THERE OF/ TODAY THAT HAS P-TYPE QUESTIONS AND AN FGEN BAND THAT HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...THERE IS ACTUALLY DECENT CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT MON-TUE. WE ALWAYS HAVE GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH EVENTS LIKE TODAY BECAUSE THE BAND OF SNOW IS FOCUSED AND NOT VERY WIDE IN SCALE. SO...IF YOU DON`T GET THE LOCATION QUITE RIGHT...LOCATIONS JUST OUTSIDE THE BAND GET VERY LITTLE SNOW...AND THAT`S WITHOUT CONSIDERING THE WARMER TEMPS AND REDUCED SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO SOME OF THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN/SLEET AS IS THE CASE WITH TODAYS EVENT. THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS PASSAGE WILL BE SLOW AND THE THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A 24-30HR WINDOW WITH LIFT OVER A VERY LARGE SPATIAL AREA. IN FACT...THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OFF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE MEASURABLE SNOW FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO ILLINOIS.THEREFORE...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE OUR FORECAST FOR PROBABILITY OF SNOW INCREASE IN THAT MON-TUE TIME FRAME. IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT A LOT OF LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN MN/WI...BUT IT WOULD OCCUR OVER A PROLONGED WINDOW. UNLIKE BANDED SNOW /LIKE TODAY/...THE WIDESPREAD FORCING MEANS IT WILL BE TOUGHER FOR THIS ONE TO "MISS" THE AREA COMPLETELY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 542 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 HRRR/HOPWRF/NAM ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT THE SNOW SOUTHEAST FOR TODAY...SO HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH SNOW MENTION AT RWF/MSP/RNH TODAY. LEFT EAU TAF PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED...THOUGH -RA COULD HOLD ON LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THERE. STRATUS WILL HANG TOUGH TODAY...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING CIGS TO DROP MUCH BELOW WHERE THEY ARE NOW. HRRR IS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY/TONIGHT...THOUGH STRATUS RIGHT NOW EXTENDS CLEAR UP INTO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC...SO CURRENT TAFS AND LAMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING SKIES OUT TONIGHT. KMSP...IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK A BIT SHAKIER FOR SEEING SNOW AT MSP...AND OUR BEST BET NOW IS LOOKING TO COME BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z...WHICH IS WHEN RADAR RETURNS EXPANDING OVER ERN NEBRASKA MOVE UP THIS DIRECTION. MOST GUIDANCE IS NOW HOLDING SNOWFALL AT MSP TO AROUND JUST A HALF INCH...SO WILL BE PRETTY MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM THAT. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS. SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS. SUN...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VRB. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ024>028. MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ077- 078-084-085-091>093. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...CLF AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 FIRST...HERE WERE THE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE IMPENDING SYSTEM FOR TODAY. THE POP GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENED QUITE A BIT...PULLING THE MENTIONABLE PRECIP LINE DOWN TO ABOUT A REDWOOD FALLS...ST. MICHAEL TO CAMBRIDGE LINE. TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WAS DELAYED A LITTLE SOUTHEAST OF A FAIRMONT...RED WING TO LADYSMITH LINE. QPF WAS REDUCED SOME...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST. WITH LOWER QPF AND A DELAYED TRANSITION TO SNOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK AS WELL...WITH UP TO ABOUT 2 INCHES NOW FORECAST IN THE ADVISORY WITH AMOUNTS IN THE TWIN CITIES RANGING FROM A TRACE IN THE NW METRO WITH AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH IN THE SE METRO. FINALLY...WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIP SOME THIS MORNING AND STARTED PUSHING THE END OF PRECIP TO THE EAST A BIT FASTER TONIGHT. THE FRONT THAT WORKED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS STRETCHED OUT FROM THE NE TX PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO THE I-90/I-94 SPLIT IN WI AND ON UP TOWARD THE MARQUETTE MICHIGAN AREA AT 3 AM. SPC MESOANLYIS SHOWS THAT FGEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS REALLY CENTERED DOWN IN THE 925- 850MB AREA...WITH NOT MUCH FGEN NOTED AT H7. WITH THE FORCING DOWN LOW...THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CLOSER TO THE FRONT...HENCE THE NUDGING OF QPF TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN FACT...EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS NUDGING THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTHEAST...WITH OUR BEST SHOT AT PRECIP COMING FROM THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY STARTING TO BLOSSOM ON RADAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COMING OUT OF NEW MEXICO RIGHT NOW GOING MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE MPX AREA...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN HOW FAR THIS PRECIP CURRENTLY IS /NW TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OPPOSED TO WRN KS...WHICH IS WHERE MODELS WITH A MORE NW SOLUTION WERE SHOWING IT SHOULD BE/. FOR P-TYPE...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A MESS. FIRST OF ALL...THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH EAU CLAIRE STILL ABOVE 40 AT 4 AM. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CAMS ALONG WITH THE RAP SHOW A MELTING WARM NOSE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS SC/SE MN UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z...WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING MORE SLEET/FZRA INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY SWITCHING TO SNOW THERE. THE WARMER TEMPS THIS MORNING DO NOT HELP THINGS EITHER...ESPECIALLY IN WI...WHERE EAU CLAIRE MAY NOT SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER 21Z...WHICH IS A BIG REASON WHY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK TO BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OUT IN THE FAR ERN MPX CWA. FOR TONIGHT...STILL HAVE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO FZDZ AS THE PRECIP IS MOVING OUT...THOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE...AS THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ICE CRYSTALS WILL LIKELY SIGNAL THE END OF PRECIP AS WELL. WITH THE ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...SAW NO NEED TO CHANGE IT WITH THOSE AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TODAY...THOUGH WITH CURRENT AMOUNTS EXPECTED...WOULD HAVE PROBABLY NOT ISSUED AN ADVY IF ONE WERE NOT ALREADY OUT THERE. TONIGHT...WE SEE STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE CLEAR SKIES WITH CONTINUE COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL START TO BLACK FRIDAY...WITH LOCATIONS OUT IN WEST CENTRAL MN LIKELY STARTING OUT NEAR 10 DEGREES. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE MONTH SOFAR /ALTHOUGH THATS NOT SAYING MUCH BECAUSE THE FORECAST AREA IS AROUND +9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER./ ONE THING OF NOTE ONFRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS THE EXTREMELY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH HAVE PWATS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGY MINIMUM BETWEEN 0.07-0.10". THE AIRMASS MODERATES THIS WEEKEND AND SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH MAINLY BROWN GROUND SHOULD GET OUR HIGHS INTO THE MID 30S...RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW - THE ONE THATS CURRENTLY SPINNING AWAY ACROSS THE WEST COAST. UNLIKE...THE SNOW EVENT /OR LACK THERE OF/ TODAY THAT HAS P-TYPE QUESTIONS AND AN FGEN BAND THAT HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...THERE IS ACTUALLY DECENT CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT MON-TUE. WE ALWAYS HAVE GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH EVENTS LIKE TODAY BECAUSE THE BAND OF SNOW IS FOCUSED AND NOT VERY WIDE IN SCALE. SO...IF YOU DON`T GET THE LOCATION QUITE RIGHT...LOCATIONS JUST OUTSIDE THE BAND GET VERY LITTLE SNOW...AND THAT`S WITHOUT CONSIDERING THE WARMER TEMPS AND REDUCED SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO SOME OF THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN/SLEET AS IS THE CASE WITH TODAYS EVENT. THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS PASSAGE WILL BE SLOW AND THE THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A 24-30HR WINDOW WITH LIFT OVER A VERY LARGE SPATIAL AREA. IN FACT...THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OFF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE MEASURABLE SNOW FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO ILLINOIS.THEREFORE...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE OUR FORECAST FOR PROBABILITY OF SNOW INCREASE IN THAT MON-TUE TIME FRAME. IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT A LOT OF LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN MN/WI...BUT IT WOULD OCCUR OVER A PROLONGED WINDOW. UNLIKE BANDED SNOW /LIKE TODAY/...THE WIDESPREAD FORCING MEANS IT WILL BE TOUGHER FOR THIS ONE TO "MISS" THE AREA COMPLETELY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH MVFR FURTHER EAST. IFR CIGS WILL INCH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE STEADY PRECIP A BIT SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF RWF/MSP LIKELY REMAINING DRY. KMSP...CIGS HAVE SO FAR REMAINED ABOVE IFR...BUT THINK OVERNIGHT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE LOWERING AND A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING A BIT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES MID-LATE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE... HEAVIER TOTALS SOUTHEAST. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS. SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS. SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ024>028. MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ077-078-084-085-091>093. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...CLF AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
928 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 .UPDATE: Issued at 925 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015 Large area of rain stretching from the ARKLATEX into southern IL continues to drift south. A quick glance at 00z NAM as well as hi-res HRRR suggest that this southward shift will persist overnight, with the heaviest rain threat remaining confined to areas south of I44 in MO and s of I70 in IL, draped along strong low level baroclinic zone north of slow moving cold front. Flood Watch for central MO was cancelled earlier this evening, and based on above trends have also cancelled the Flood Watch over the STL Metro. Although the heavy rain threat should be confined to the southern third of the CWA, I have remained fairly generous with lower PoPs further north as area is RRQ of jet core over the Great Lakes. Can`t totally rule out a threat of frozen precip in our far NW counties late tonight, but very much uncertain about how much...if any...precip will be able to develop in this area of sub-freezing temps. Truett && .SHORT TERM: (Through Saturday) Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015 A strong wound-up storm system over the Great Basin region of the western CONUS is expected to move little during this period, maintaining an active southwest flow aloft over our region, with disturbances training along. This will all intersect a pretty moist airmass in place still over our region and result in high probs for precipitation, especially for areas near and south of the I-70 corridor. First, will keep the FFA going as-is. Despite rain tapering off in central and now east-central MO, the rain is cycling to an extent and should try to fill back in further north into central MO this evening and overnight. Also, flooding effects are typically delayed from when the rainfall occurs and so the flood threat does not end right when the rainfall tapers. Will let the evening and overnight shifts re-evaluate and cancel early as needed once the effects on the area are better realized. Second, surface temps will once again approach the freezing mark across parts of northeast MO and west-central IL and with current and expected vertical temp profiles, would be supportive of a brief period of light freezing rain or sleet. Fortunately, much of the threat for measurable pcpn will be south of this area and any amounts, should they occur, should be very light. PoPs here are below 50%. Preferred the higher end of MOS temps for mins tonight and lower end of MOS for maxes Saturday with extensive cloud cover in place. TES .LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Friday) Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015 (Sunday - Monday) As the wound-up western CONUS storm begins to stir eastward, the pattern over us remains status quo, with an active southwest flow aloft and additional disturbances tracking thru, overrunning moisture well to the north of the old surface boundary. This should result in another widespread rain event, but QPF will be light, with around a tenth of an inch forecast and should have minimal to no impact on flooding concerns. Good agrement then continues on what to do with the storm system center, bringing it out into the Plains by Monday and track it to our north Monday night. During this process, a strong disturbance will rotate around the southern periphery and impact our area Monday. QPF looks low, with a tenth of an inch or less forecast for this event, but probs remain on the high side, with likely PoPs forecast. Temps will be at or a tad below average for daytime maxes, but remain above average for nighttime mins--all because of the extensive cloud cover that continues to be forecast. (Tuesday - Next Friday) Good model agreement begins to go away by late Wednesday, with a pair of dry days expected Tuesday and Wednesday. GFS is showing a stronger storm system trying to take shape on Thursday than the EC, but this system at first glance looks to be moisture starved and have kept PoPs on the dry side for now. Consensus then re-achieved for Friday with building heights and ridging overhead. With cold air forecast to continue to be locked up well north, temps will begin this period around average but trend warmer by the end of the week with the building heights aloft and southerly flow at the surface. TES && .AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 609 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015 IFR ceilings will continue to prevail through the night and into Saturday morning. Expecting slow improvement from north to south on Saturday...tho IFR will probably continue to prevail across most of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois through the end of the day. Rain will slowly taper off to a few showers or patchy drizzle from north to south as well...but will likely hang around most of the day across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. North-northeast flow will prevail across the area through 00Z Sunday. Specifics for KSTL: IFR ceilings are likely to prevail at Lambert at least through the night and and Saturday morning. There will likely be occasional breaks in the IFR, but I think those breaks will be few and far between. Guidance does indicate that ceilings will rise above 1000 FT Saturday afternoon and the rain should come to an end during the late morning or early afternoon as well. Expect MVFR ceilings with heights below 2000 FT to prevail during the afternoon and into the Saturday evening. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO- Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO- Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Randolph IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
418 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2015 Focus continues to be precip chances thru the afternoon. Expect strong sly winds to continue thru today. A strong swly LLJ is expected to continue over the region today as well. Mdls continue to depict broad areas of moisture convergence across the area today. This is expected to result in light SHRA off and on thru much of the day. The better chances appear to continue to be across nrn portions of the CWA. Believe will continue with higher PoPs across this area, tho expect little accumulation with these SHRA. That said, the area of more stratiform and somewhat heavier RA shud be moving into the nwrn portions of the CWA late this afternoon into the evening hrs. Another forecast problem for today is temps. While expect extensive cloud cover across the area, the strong sly flow shud help push temps warmer. Have trended slightly above the cooler guidance for today. Tilly .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 418 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2015 (Tonight through Saturday ) Not many changes to the prev forecast thru this period. Mdls are in fairly good agreement and have slowed onset of stratiform precip this evening. Other main change was to speed up swd progression of precip tomorrow night into Sat. Despite this slower onset timing, have kept the Flood Watch as-is except to extend the watch to 18z Sat. While precip will likely continue into Sat afternoon, believe the heaviest precip will have ended, tho a residual flooding threat may linger. Focus begins to shift to p-type issues late Fri night into Sat morning, and again late Sat night into Sun morning. As the large arctic airmass builds into the area, cold air will advect into the region as precip comes to an end. Have not trended as cold as some guidance and future forecasts may need to speed up the CAA and pull the FZRA further swd sooner than the current forecast. There is also some indication that the low level cold air may be deep enuf that sleet will also be possible. With sfc temps being warmer, believe that chances for ice accumulation are low, especially given the low chance of occurrence. Will need to continue to monitor this time period and watch trends with future updates. (Sunday through Wednesday) Again, not many changes from the prev forecast for this period. The GEM continues to be a cold soln and have trended twd the warmer GFS/ECMWF solns. Have continued low PoPs thru Mon due to differences among mdl guidance. However, it appears all precip shud be out of the area on Tues. Tilly && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015 Ceilings across the FA have increased throughout the evening as some lower level dry air as worked north across the region. However, both RAP and NAM low level RH progs are forecasting renewed saturation during the predawn hours. Since SREF MVFR cig probabilities are also coming up from southwest MO into west central IL during the morning hours on Thursday, have introduced a TEMPO for MVFR ceilings (1500-2000 ft) during the morning at both KCOU and KUIN. Some lowering of ceilings are also expected in the STL Metro area, but believe here the bases will remain above 3kft. Strong southerly low level flow also persists, so will maintain LLWS in the forecast until gusts come up early Thanksgiving morning. Precip is going to remain a hit and miss proposition. Spotty showers currently extending from mid MO to central IL will likely persist for several hours, and it`s certainly possible that additional spotty, light, WAA-driven showers will reform over the northwest half of the CWA throughout the predawn and morning hours on Thursday. However, it certainly appears that the main rain threat will be entering the area tomorrow evening, and especially after 06z, as cold front finally pushes into western sections of the CWA. Not only will the rainfall become heavier and widespread, but ceilings and visbilibites will likely take a nose dive with FROPA at both KCOU and KUIN after 06z. Specifics for KSTL: VFR ceilings aoa 4kft are expected overnight and into most of Thanksgiving Day. Strong low level jet will maintain LLWS threat until mixing commences and transfers some of the higher winds to the surface..in the 12-15z time frame. Truett && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 67 52 56 39 / 30 100 100 80 Quincy 66 39 41 32 / 70 100 60 30 Columbia 67 40 42 34 / 70 100 80 60 Jefferson City 68 42 45 35 / 70 100 90 70 Salem 65 56 58 42 / 20 100 100 90 Farmington 64 54 57 39 / 30 100 100 90 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO- Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning FOR Clinton IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL- Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
316 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2015 Focus continues to be precip chances thru the afternoon. Expect strong sly winds to continue thru today. A strong swly LLJ is expected to continue over the region today as well. Mdls continue to depict broad areas of moisture convergence across the area today. This is expected to result in light SHRA off and on thru much of the day. The better chances appear to continue to be across nrn portions of the CWA. Believe will continue with higher PoPs across this area, tho expect little accumulation with these SHRA. That said, the area of more stratiform and somewhat heavier RA shud be moving into the nwrn portions of the CWA late this afternoon into the evening hrs. Another forecast problem for today is temps. While expect extensive cloud cover across the area, the strong sly flow shud help push temps warmer. Have trended slightly above the cooler guidance for today. Tilly .LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015 (Thanksgiving Day - Saturday Night) A strong wound-up storm system over the Great Basin region of the western CONUS is expected to move little during this period, maintaining an active southwest flow aloft over our region, and shooting out pieces of energy or distrbances our way as well. The first of these disturbances is expected to arrive late Thursday afternoon, with essentially a near continuous train thru late Saturday after that. This will be further augmented by a slow moving cold front and rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will begin moving thru late Thursday afternoon in northeast MO and will take all of Friday and much of Friday night to move thru the remainder of the forecast area. Despite much cooler air ushering in behind the cold front, temperatures are expected to stay above freezing for most areas thru this entire period and will keep pcpn-types as all rain. The one exception could be in parts of northeast MO and west-central IL late Friday night and early Saturday morning, where temps will be around the freezing mark. Fortunately, much of the pcpn by that time should be to the south with only light spotty pcpn currently anticipated. Otherwise, the main concern will be the prolonged period of heavy rainfall--especially for parts of southeast MO and far southern IL-- where rainfall totals may top 4 inches by Saturday morning. A Flood Watch has already been issued and considering that the rainfall forecast has changed little since then, if not the heavy QPF axis sliding a bit further south, no change was needed to the current area. The only adjustment seriously considered was an extension in time into Saturday for southeast MO and far southern IL, but wanted to take another look or two at that to see if the southern trend continues. Temps will be quite mild for late November ahead of the front, but will rapidly drop to below average for daytime maxes behind it, with readings in some areas not getting out of the 30s. Fortunately, plenty of warm air aloft should keep the pcpn as rain unless surface temps can slip below 32F. (Sunday - Next Wednesday) Model solutions continue to vary quite a bit out in this period but the general theme continues to be the storm out west gets nudged into the main flow and tracks generally east, passing mainly to our north by Tuesday sliding a surface TROF thru on Monday. Looks like another round of primarily rain on Monday with this TROF. Temps look to be around average for this time of year, with clear absence of any significant cold air surges from the north, but also absent any strong influence from either the moist Gulf of Mexico or the much milder air to the south. TES && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015 Ceilings across the FA have increased throughout the evening as some lower level dry air as worked north across the region. However, both RAP and NAM low level RH progs are forecasting renewed saturation during the predawn hours. Since SREF MVFR cig probabilities are also coming up from southwest MO into west central IL during the morning hours on Thursday, have introduced a TEMPO for MVFR ceilings (1500-2000 ft) during the morning at both KCOU and KUIN. Some lowering of ceilings are also expected in the STL Metro area, but believe here the bases will remain above 3kft. Strong southerly low level flow also persists, so will maintain LLWS in the forecast until gusts come up early Thanksgiving morning. Precip is going to remain a hit and miss proposition. Spotty showers currently extending from mid MO to central IL will likely persist for several hours, and it`s certainly possible that additional spotty, light, WAA-driven showers will reform over the northwest half of the CWA throughout the predawn and morning hours on Thursday. However, it certainly appears that the main rain threat will be entering the area tomorrow evening, and especially after 06z, as cold front finally pushes into western sections of the CWA. Not only will the rainfall become heavier and widespread, but ceilings and visbilibites will likely take a nose dive with FROPA at both KCOU and KUIN after 06z. Specifics for KSTL: VFR ceilings aoa 4kft are expected overnight and into most of Thanksgiving Day. Strong low level jet will maintain LLWS threat until mixing commences and transfers some of the higher winds to the surface..in the 12-15z time frame. Truett && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 67 52 56 39 / 30 100 100 80 Quincy 66 39 41 32 / 70 100 60 30 Columbia 67 40 42 34 / 70 100 80 60 Jefferson City 68 42 45 35 / 70 100 90 70 Salem 65 56 58 42 / 20 100 100 90 Farmington 64 54 57 39 / 30 100 100 90 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO- Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning FOR Clinton IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL- Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1140 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015 First weak shortwave trough is currently exiting to the northeast but area will stay in persistent southwesterly flow aloft through tonight. There will be some weak vort maxes that will move through the flow aloft that will provide some weak ascent above increasing moisture convergence because of the low level jet. Rain chances will increase through the late evening and overnight over central and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois where the best low level moisture convergence will be. Temperatures will not drop too much tonight with strong warm air advection and dewpoints rising through tonight. Expect lows to be closer to the warmer MAV MOS guidance. Britt .LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015 (Thanksgiving Day - Saturday Night) A strong wound-up storm system over the Great Basin region of the western CONUS is expected to move little during this period, maintaining an active southwest flow aloft over our region, and shooting out pieces of energy or distrbances our way as well. The first of these disturbances is expected to arrive late Thursday afternoon, with essentially a near continuous train thru late Saturday after that. This will be further augmented by a slow moving cold front and rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will begin moving thru late Thursday afternoon in northeast MO and will take all of Friday and much of Friday night to move thru the remainder of the forecast area. Despite much cooler air ushering in behind the cold front, temperatures are expected to stay above freezing for most areas thru this entire period and will keep pcpn-types as all rain. The one exception could be in parts of northeast MO and west-central IL late Friday night and early Saturday morning, where temps will be around the freezing mark. Fortunately, much of the pcpn by that time should be to the south with only light spotty pcpn currently anticipated. Otherwise, the main concern will be the prolonged period of heavy rainfall--especially for parts of southeast MO and far southern IL-- where rainfall totals may top 4 inches by Saturday morning. A Flood Watch has already been issued and considering that the rainfall forecast has changed little since then, if not the heavy QPF axis sliding a bit further south, no change was needed to the current area. The only adjustment seriously considered was an extension in time into Saturday for southeast MO and far southern IL, but wanted to take another look or two at that to see if the southern trend continues. Temps will be quite mild for late November ahead of the front, but will rapidly drop to below average for daytime maxes behind it, with readings in some areas not getting out of the 30s. Fortunately, plenty of warm air aloft should keep the pcpn as rain unless surface temps can slip below 32F. (Sunday - Next Wednesday) Model solutions continue to vary quite a bit out in this period but the general theme continues to be the storm out west gets nudged into the main flow and tracks generally east, passing mainly to our north by Tuesday sliding a surface TROF thru on Monday. Looks like another round of primarily rain on Monday with this TROF. Temps look to be around average for this time of year, with clear absence of any significant cold air surges from the north, but also absent any strong influence from either the moist Gulf of Mexico or the much milder air to the south. TES && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015 Ceilings across the FA have increased throughout the evening as some lower level dry air as worked north across the region. However, both RAP and NAM low level RH progs are forecasting renewed saturation during the predawn hours. Since SREF MVFR cig probabilities are also coming up from southwest MO into west central IL during the morning hours on Thursday, have introduced a TEMPO for MVFR ceilings (1500-2000 ft) during the morning at both KCOU and KUIN. Some lowering of ceilings are also expected in the STL Metro area, but believe here the bases will remain above 3kft. Strong southerly low level flow also persists, so will maintain LLWS in the forecast until gusts come up early Thanksgiving morning. Precip is going to remain a hit and miss proposition. Spotty showers currently extending from mid MO to central IL will likely persist for several hours, and it`s certainly possible that additional spotty, light, WAA-driven showers will reform over the northwest half of the CWA throughout the predawn and morning hours on Thursday. However, it certainly appears that the main rain threat will be entering the area tomorrow evening, and especially after 06z, as cold front finally pushes into western sections of the CWA. Not only will the rainfall become heavier and widespread, but ceilings and visbilibites will likely take a nose dive with FROPA at both KCOU and KUIN after 06z. Specifics for KSTL: VFR ceilings aoa 4kft are expected overnight and into most of Thanksgiving Day. Strong low level jet will maintain LLWS threat until mixing commences and transfers some of the higher winds to the surface..in the 12-15z time frame. Truett && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday night FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday night FOR Clinton IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL- Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
632 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION OF NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. ANALYSIS OF BUFR SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER ENCOMPASSING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE INITIALLY...BUT REVEAL ENOUGH TOP DOWN SATURATION FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...THIS CHANGEOVER WILL BE QUICK...LEADING TO THE GREATEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. FOR THE SANDHILLS...NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THE DRY LAYER IN THE DGZ REMAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION...A NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER WILL NEED ERODE FOR ACCUMULATING FZDZ...WHICH IS SHOWN TO OCCUR GENERALLY AFTER 15Z FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE WILL BE LIGHT...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...A TRACE TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE. POTENTIAL FZDZ ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE A TRACE TO AS MUCH AS A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH AT BEST. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WINTER HEADLINES. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WHICH REMAIN APPARENT. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST...WHEREAS THE GFS IS SLOW. THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NAM AS THE ONSET OF QPF FROM RECENT STORMS HAS BEEN FASTER THAN THE MODELS INDICATED. ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C THROUGH THE PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THAT WILL BE UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM12 AND THE GFS40 WITH THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE AND THAT WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TIMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW OVER NEARLY ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHILE THE NAM SHOWS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD FAVOR A DRY INTRUSION IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. THE NAM STILL FAVORS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE SNOWFALL OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BUT NOT REAL STRONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW OCCURRING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 632 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 61 OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. WEST OF 61... THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT FOR MVFR CIGS BY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE AND PERHAPS SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE HRRR INDICATES LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN NEB WITH PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS SWRN AROUND 16Z. IF CIGS CAN LOWER TO 3KT THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JACOBS LONG TERM...SPRINGER AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
326 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015 TRANSITIONED A LARGE PORTION OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WHILE WE HAVE HAD ACCUMULATION ON ABOVE GROUND SURFACES TODAY...ROAD CONDITIONS IN MOST OF THE WARNING AREA REMAINED RELATIVELY GOOD WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES REMAINING JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE HAD MULTIPLE REPORTS OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICING ON EVERYTHING ELSE ABOVE GROUND THOUGH. OPPD REPORTING ONLY 107 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT 3 PM. STILL SEEING A FREEZING RAIN/ICE PELLET MIX ALONG I80 CORRIDOR...AND OVERALL RADAR INTENSITY IS ALSO WINDING DOWN. KEPT THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE TEMPS ARE JUST NOW APPROACHING FREEZING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS PICKING UP THE ABOVE GROUND GLAZING THAT ELSEWHERE HAS EXPERIENCED THROUGH THE DAY. THUS...THE AREA IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE WOODS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR WINTRY WEATHER... BUT WANTED TO ADJUST THE HEADLINES WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TO BETTER REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS. PRECIP WILL PROBABLY COME TO AN END ALONG/NORTH OF I80 THROUGH EARLY EVENING... BUT THE SECOND SURGE COMING OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE TO AREAS SOUTH OF I80 BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THAT MAY MOVE OUT BY MIDNIGHT... AND FINALLY A THIRD SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING OUT SOUTHWEST KANSAS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL FLURRIES BACK TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH OF I80...THEN FINALLY PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE A COLD BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS. DRY SATURDAY US WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WE MAY START TO SEE INFLUENCES OF THAT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION SPLITTING THE FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST...WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS WESTERN HALF...AND MIXED PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN HALF...BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015 A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIKELY...AGAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX...BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS MY WESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND MIXED ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 77...THEN ENDING AS ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT IS JUST OUTSIDE OUR WINDOW OF QPF AND SNOWFALL. PRECIP FINALLY OUT OF HERE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 KOFK REMAINS ALL SNOW AND SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON. KOMA HAS ALREADY REPORTED FREEZING RAIN AND SEE A STRIPE OF SLEET THAT SHOULD MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE THEY CHANGE TO SNOW. AS FOR KLNK...AS OF TAF ISSUANCE...THEY REMAIN ALL LIQUID BUT SHOULD SEE A -FZRA MIX SOON WITH SLEET...THEN A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RAP WHICH DEVELOPS MORE PCPN AFTER 06Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045- 051>053-065>068-078-088>090. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ091>093. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015- 032>034-042>044-050. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055- 056-069-079-080. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ090-091. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1151 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 THERE IS A BAND OF MDT-HVY SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING OVER PORTIONS OF POLK/YORK/HAMILTON/MERRICK COUNTIES. THIS BAND WILL DROP 1 TO POSSIBLY 2" BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 1 PM. JUST RCVD A REPORT OF 1" IN OSCEOLA FROM AN OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE. THE FCST IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY COMPLICATED AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY. 88D MOSAIC SHOWS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP OVER WRN KS MOVING NE. SO EXPECT PRECIP TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z WRF- ARW/NMMB AND THE DEPICT THIS WELL. THIS WILL LOWER ICE AMTS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP IS HEADING OUT OF NM INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THE HI-RES MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE BRING THIS PRECIP INTO ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA THIS EVE/TONIGHT. MORE LATER... UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 SITUATION SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING AS EXPECTED. WHILE PRECIP HAS BEEN LIGHT...WE`VE RECEIVED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF ICY ROADS N OF THE TRI-CITIES. IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH. THE 12Z NAM WILL BE DELAYED. 12Z SOUNDINGS: OAX AND DDC SHOW THAT THE WARM NOSE IS SATURATED. SO WETBULB COOLING WILL NO LONGER BE A FACTOR AND INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING THE WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SFC-BASED COLD LAYER. UEX 88D SHOWS IT`S ABOUT 3K FT DEEP. LBF IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...AND WE`VE RECEIVED REPORTS OF IP/SN ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. WE WILL BE USING DUAL POL TO HELP DIAGNOSE PRECIP TYPES. PLEASE SEE 704 AM SPC MESO DISC FOR MORE DETAILS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 THE SOLE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM BEARING DOWN ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPES. PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ON THE FALLING TREND WITH NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW REPORTED NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT CAN BE COUNTED AS FOR SURE WITH THIS FORECAST...MAINLY THAT MOST EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TEMPERATURES PROFILE AND RESULTING PRECIP TYPES. THIS LATEST FORECAST WAS PUT TOGETHER USING A BLEND OF THE NAM...HRRR...AND RAP MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SEEMING TO INITILIZE THE BEST OF THE THREE. THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS AN OUTLIER AND IS TOO COLD OVERALL. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WHICH LOOKING AT THE NAM SOLUTION WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS FAR NORTH AS THE TRI CITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z. THIS COULD PUT A HUGE DAMPER ON SNOWFALL FORECASTS AND POTENTIALLY UP ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM MAY NOT EVEN DIP INTO THE FREEZING MARK FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON FORECAST ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS AND MAY INDICATE MORE RAIN. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND A FASTER DISSIPATION OF THE WARM NOSE. ALTHOUGH NOT REALLY EXPECTED ...SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IN THE TRANSITION. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CONTINUED SHOT AT PRECIPITATION AS THE CLOSED LOW IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NEVER COMPLETELY GOES AWAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SOME SMALL POPS LINGER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN OUR SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON FRIDAY...WE ONCE AGAIN GET SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT THAT COULD GIVE US SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FROM LATE FRIDAY ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO AT TIME LOSE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...AND WE MAY WIND UP WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE EAST ENOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT TO END OUR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH BY MONDAY TO POSSIBLY GIVE US JUST SNOW...IF JUST A LITTLE BIT. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER...BUT JUST ENOUGH QPF TO PERHAPS GIVE US SOME HEADACHES WITH THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THIS TIME PERIOD...WE HOPE TO PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION TYPES AND TIMING. I ALSO DO NOT EXPECT A CONSTANT PRECIPITATION SITUATION FOR THE LONG TERM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. RIDGING BUILDS IN BY MID-WEEK AND KEEPS US DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ...WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MAYBE SOME LOWER 40S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRI AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 THIS AFTERNOON: IFR SNOW WILL CONT THRU 20Z-21Z THEN A BREAK IS EXPECTED. TIMING MAY BE OFF A LITTLE ON THIS. THEN IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON VSBYS. MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER. N WINDS 15-25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT: POSSIBLY VFR TO START...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR -SN ROUGHLY 02Z-05Z. THEN VFR CIGS AROUND 7-10K FT. N WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ064-076- 077-086-087. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-082>085. KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ007-019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005- 006-017-018. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN LONG TERM...HEINLEIN AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERALL. CAN NOW SEE SLEET SHOWING UP IN THE ZDR STRIPE WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFIED BY GROUND TRUTH. NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE IS SNOW AND TO THE SOUTHEAST IS RAIN WITH FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THE AREA WIND SENSORS ARE REPORTING CALM CONDITIONS WHICH IS A GOOD INDICATION OF THE ANEMOMETER FREEZING UP. ROAD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL WITH THE MAIN ICING BEING REPORTED ON ELEVATED SURFACES. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE RAP AND IT`S DEVELOPMENT OF MORE PCPN AFTER 06Z. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING PCPN CHANGE OVER AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS. CURRENT SFC OBS INDICATE LEADING EDGE OF COLD FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH PUSHED THRU THE CWA EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IA TO S-CNTRL KS WITH STOUT INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BNDRY. AT THIS POINT JUST MATTER OF TIME NOW BEFORE PCPN ACTIVITY GETS UNDERWAY AS CONTINUOUS MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE SLOW MOVING SFC BNDRY LEADS TO A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RA/FZRA/SLEET MIX TO SNOW AS THE CAA LAYER DEEPENS. MAIN AREA OF SN ACCUM THOUGH SHOULD BE CONFINED OVER THE NRN CWA WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE. DURING THE AFTN HOURS...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN CWA WILL FAVOR A FREEZING RAIN EPISODE AS THE COLD AIR CUTS UNDERNEATH THE WARMER AIR MASS LAYER ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ROADWAY ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A QUARTER INCH...ASSUMING OF COURSE PAVEMENT TEMPS WILL BE SUB-ZERO. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTIES CURRENTLY UNDER A WATCH TO A WARNING. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WHEN BEST FORCING/MOISTURE SHIFTS EWD. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS POINT AS BOTH THE ECM/GFS SUGGEST PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PDS IN RESPONSE TO MOIST UPGLIDE COUPLED WITH DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER WRN CONUS. ECM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT DOMINATE PCPN TYPE WILL BE SNOW. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 KOFK REMAINS ALL SNOW AND SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON. KOMA HAS ALREADY REPORTED FREEZING RAIN AND SEE A STRIPE OF SLEET THAT SHOULD MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE THEY CHANGE TO SNOW. AS FOR KLNK...AS OF TAF ISSUANCE...THEY REMAIN ALL LIQUID BUT SHOULD SEE A -FZRA MIX SOON WITH SLEET...THEN A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RAP WHICH DEVELOPS MORE PCPN AFTER 06Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045- 051>053-065-066-078. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ067-068- 088>090-092. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ091-093. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015- 018-030>034-042>044-050. IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056- 069. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ079-080. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ090-091. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043. && $$ UPDATE...KERN SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
827 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 827 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 SITUATION SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING AS EXPECTED. WHILE PRECIP HAS BEEN LIGHT...WE`VE RECEIVED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF ICY ROADS N OF THE TRI-CITIES. IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH. THE 12Z NAM WILL BE DELAYED. 12Z SOUNDINGS: OAX AND DDC SHOW THAT THE WARM NOSE IS SATURATED. SO WETBULB COOLING WILL NO LONGER BE A FACTOR AND INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING THE WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SFC-BASED COLD LAYER. UEX 88D SHOWS IT`S ABOUT 3K FT DEEP. LBF IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...AND WE`VE RECEIVED REPORTS OF IP/SN ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. WE WILL BE USING DUAL POL TO HELP DIAGNOSE PRECIP TYPES. PLEASE SEE 704 AM SPC MESO DISC FOR MORE DETAILS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 THE SOLE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM BEARING DOWN ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPES. PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ON THE FALLING TREND WITH NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW REPORTED NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT CAN BE COUNTED AS FOR SURE WITH THIS FORECAST...MAINLY THAT MOST EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TEMPERATURES PROFILE AND RESULTING PRECIP TYPES. THIS LATEST FORECAST WAS PUT TOGETHER USING A BLEND OF THE NAM...HRRR...AND RAP MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SEEMING TO INITILIZE THE BEST OF THE THREE. THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS AN OUTLIER AND IS TOO COLD OVERALL. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WHICH LOOKING AT THE NAM SOLUTION WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS FAR NORTH AS THE TRI CITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z. THIS COULD PUT A HUGE DAMPER ON SNOWFALL FORECASTS AND POTENTIALLY UP ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM MAY NOT EVEN DIP INTO THE FREEZING MARK FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON FORECAST ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS AND MAY INDICATE MORE RAIN. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND A FASTER DISSIPATION OF THE WARM NOSE. ALTHOUGH NOT REALLY EXPECTED ...SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IN THE TRANSITION. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CONTINUED SHOT AT PRECIPITATION AS THE CLOSED LOW IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NEVER COMPLETELY GOES AWAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SOME SMALL POPS LINGER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN OUR SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON FRIDAY...WE ONCE AGAIN GET SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT THAT COULD GIVE US SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FROM LATE FRIDAY ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO AT TIME LOSE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...AND WE MAY WIND UP WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE EAST ENOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT TO END OUR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH BY MONDAY TO POSSIBLY GIVE US JUST SNOW...IF JUST A LITTLE BIT. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER...BUT JUST ENOUGH QPF TO PERHAPS GIVE US SOME HEADACHES WITH THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THIS TIME PERIOD...WE HOPE TO PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION TYPES AND TIMING. I ALSO DO NOT EXPECT A CONSTANT PRECIPITATION SITUATION FOR THE LONG TERM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. RIDGING BUILDS IN BY MID-WEEK AND KEEPS US DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ...WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MAYBE SOME LOWER 40S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING) ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES TODAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS AND PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END OVERNIGHT. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ064-076- 077-086. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-082>085. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ087. KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005- 006-017-018. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ007-019. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN LONG TERM...HEINLEIN AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
516 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 THE SOLE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM BEARING DOWN ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPES. PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ON THE FALLING TREND WITH NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW REPORTED NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT CAN BE COUNTED AS FOR SURE WITH THIS FORECAST...MAINLY THAT MOST EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TEMPERATURES PROFILE AND RESULTING PRECIP TYPES. THIS LATEST FORECAST WAS PUT TOGETHER USING A BLEND OF THE NAM...HRRR...AND RAP MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SEEMING TO INITILIZE THE BEST OF THE THREE. THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS AN OUTLIER AND IS TOO COLD OVERALL. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WHICH LOOKING AT THE NAM SOLUTION WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS FAR NORTH AS THE TRI CITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z. THIS COULD PUT A HUGE DAMPER ON SNOWFALL FORECASTS AND POTENTIALLY UP ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM MAY NOT EVEN DIP INTO THE FREEZING MARK FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON FORECAST ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS AND MAY INDICATE MORE RAIN. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND A FASTER DISSIPATION OF THE WARM NOSE. ALTHOUGH NOT REALLY EXPECTED...SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IN THE TRANSITION. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CONTINUED SHOT AT PRECIPITATION AS THE CLOSED LOW IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NEVER COMPLETELY GOES AWAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SOME SMALL POPS LINGER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN OUR SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON FRIDAY...WE ONCE AGAIN GET SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT THAT COULD GIVE US SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FROM LATE FRIDAY ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO AT TIME LOSE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...AND WE MAY WIND UP WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE EAST ENOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT TO END OUR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH BY MONDAY TO POSSIBLY GIVE US JUST SNOW...IF JUST A LITTLE BIT. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER...BUT JUST ENOUGH QPF TO PERHAPS GIVE US SOME HEADACHES WITH THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THIS TIME PERIOD...WE HOPE TO PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION TYPES AND TIMING. I ALSO DO NOT EXPECT A CONSTANT PRECIPITATION SITUATION FOR THE LONG TERM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. RIDGING BUILDS IN BY MID-WEEK AND KEEPS US DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MAYBE SOME LOWER 40S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES TODAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS AND PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END OVERNIGHT. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ064-076- 077-086. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-082>085. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ087. KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005- 006-017-018. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ007-019. && $$ SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN LONG TERM...HEINLEIN AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1058 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN FOR UNION COUNTY AND TO DECREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NM TODAY. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR A RATON AIRPORT TO SPRINGER TO TUCUMCARI LINE. FREEZING RAIN BEING REPORTED AT CLAYTON AS SHALLOW COLD AIR UNDERCUTS THE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT. 33 && .PREV DISCUSSION...1035 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015... .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE COMPLEX/INCREASINGLY HIGH-IMPACT WX SCENARIO THROUGH THE FCST PD AND BEYOND...PARTICULARLY TERMINAL SITES ACROSS ERN NM. LEADING EDGE OF A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL CONT TO PRESS SOUTHWARD TODAY. THIS COLD BUT SHALLOW AIR MASS WILL BE TOPPED BY A SUB-TROPICAL AIR STREAM CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-RECORD MOISTURE CONTENT FOR LATE NOVEMBER. AS A RESULT...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TO INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY EXPAND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS MUCH SLOWER TODAY...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO TOWARD SUNSET....EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS MID/LATE EVENING AND THE KROW AREA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. MT OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND OF LONG DURATION...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. EASTERLY SFC WINDS TO 45 KT TO IMPACT KABQ AND KSAF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS THE COLD AIR SPILLS WESTWARD. KGUP AND KFMN LEAST IMPACTED TERMINALS WHERE VFR CIGS FORECAST. KJ && .PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015... .SYNOPSIS... A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SURGE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON GUSTY EAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SNOW FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE EAST AND IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER CENTRAL AND WEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE FASTER PROGRESS THAN THE MODELS CAN KEEP UP WITH. WIND SHIFT HAS ARRIVED AT KTCC WITH A CORRESPONDING NEARLY 20 DEGREE DECREASE IN THE DRY BULB TEMPERATURE. TRIED TO ADJUST FOR THE FASTER TIMING TEMPERATURE AND WIND WISE...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE ALA THE ECMWF AND MET AT LEAST IN THE PLAINS...BUT STILL THE FORECAST MAY LIKELY BE LAGGING BEHIND. NOT ONLY SOME RATHER LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT POP WISE AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME BANDED PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS MORESO LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THINKING THE COLDEST AIR MAY ARRIVE A BIT LATER SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TIMING WISE WITH WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. HOWEVER LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME OF THE BANDED PRECIPITATION MAY START SOONER...AS IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW WILL BE SLOWER TO EJECT AND A TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD BE MORE PERSISTENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THEREFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER. THE MID WEEK FORECAST ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT RATHER A STOUT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A WINTRY SPELL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY...INCREASING SOME IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY INVADED UNION COUNTY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL ENCROACH FARTHER INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL PICK UP SPEED...PRESSING FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS COLDER AIR PLUNGES IN WITH THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL TURN WINTRY...FIRST IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM TODAY...SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN RANGE FROM A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO A MIXED BAG OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. A STRONG CANYON WIND WILL ALSO LIKELY SPILL INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER NM INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GRADUALLY LESSENING INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW EXITS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN IS STILL DEPICTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AS THE VAST LOW EXITS FARTHER AWAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A TRAILING DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONGOING...MOSTLY OVER EASTERN NM. THIS PATTERN COULD COME WITH SOME BOUTS OF STRONGER BREEZES...BUT FOR NOW NO CRITICAL WEATHER IS FORESEEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER...THAT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ526-534-537-539. ICE STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ535-536. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512>515-523-527>533. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ538-540. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511-516>518-521-522-524. && $$ 33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1035 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE COMPLEX/INCREASINGLY HIGH-IMPACT WX SCENARIO THROUGH THE FCST PD AND BEYOND...PARTICULARLY TERMINAL SITES ACROSS ERN NM. LEADING EDGE OF A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL CONT TO PRESS SOUTHWARD TODAY. THIS COLD BUT SHALLOW AIR MASS WILL BE TOPPED BY A SUB-TROPICAL AIR STREAM CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-RECORD MOISTURE CONTENT FOR LATE NOVEMBER. AS A RESULT...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TO INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY EXPAND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS MUCH SLOWER TODAY...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO TOWARD SUNSET....EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS MID/LATE EVENING AND THE KROW AREA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. MT OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND OF LONG DURATION...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. EASTERLY SFC WINDS TO 45 KT TO IMPACT KABQ AND KSAF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS THE COLD AIR SPILLS WESTWARD. KGUP AND KFMN LEAST IMPACTED TERMINALS WHERE VFR CIGS FORECAST. KJ && .PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015... .SYNOPSIS... A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SURGE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON GUSTY EAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SNOW FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE EAST AND IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER CENTRAL AND WEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE FASTER PROGRESS THAN THE MODELS CAN KEEP UP WITH. WIND SHIFT HAS ARRIVED AT KTCC WITH A CORRESPONDING NEARLY 20 DEGREE DECREASE IN THE DRY BULB TEMPERATURE. TRIED TO ADJUST FOR THE FASTER TIMING TEMPERATURE AND WIND WISE...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE ALA THE ECMWF AND MET AT LEAST IN THE PLAINS...BUT STILL THE FORECAST MAY LIKELY BE LAGGING BEHIND. NOT ONLY SOME RATHER LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT POP WISE AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME BANDED PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS MORESO LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THINKING THE COLDEST AIR MAY ARRIVE A BIT LATER SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TIMING WISE WITH WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. HOWEVER LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME OF THE BANDED PRECIPITATION MAY START SOONER...AS IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW WILL BE SLOWER TO EJECT AND A TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD BE MORE PERSISTENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THEREFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER. THE MID WEEK FORECAST ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT RATHER A STOUT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A WINTRY SPELL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY...INCREASING SOME IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY INVADED UNION COUNTY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL ENCROACH FARTHER INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL PICK UP SPEED...PRESSING FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS COLDER AIR PLUNGES IN WITH THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL TURN WINTRY...FIRST IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM TODAY...SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN RANGE FROM A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO A MIXED BAG OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. A STRONG CANYON WIND WILL ALSO LIKELY SPILL INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER NM INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GRADUALLY LESSENING INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW EXITS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN IS STILL DEPICTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AS THE VAST LOW EXITS FARTHER AWAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A TRAILING DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONGOING...MOSTLY OVER EASTERN NM. THIS PATTERN COULD COME WITH SOME BOUTS OF STRONGER BREEZES...BUT FOR NOW NO CRITICAL WEATHER IS FORESEEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER...THAT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ526-534-537-539. ICE STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ535-536. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512>515-523-527>533. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ538-540. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511-516>518-521-522-524. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
446 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE A MESSY WEATHER SCENARIO WILL BE SHAPING UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENTLY BATCHES OF RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIERS OF THE STATE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE DOWNPOURS...SOME GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING. IN THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BATCHES OF FOG SNEAKING TOWARD KROW AND KCVS...AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE LATE MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS ALREADY PLUNGING INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WHERE SOME IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE OCCURING WITH PRECIPITATION TURNING MORE WINTRY AS THE DAY GOES ON. INTO THE EVENING THE FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SPREADING A WINTRY MIX AND DETERIORATING CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH IT. LOOK FOR PREVALENT AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PEAKS AND RIDGES. AS THE FRONT SPILLS WESTWARD THROUGH GAPS AND CANYONS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE TONIGHT...IT WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO ACCELERATE TO 25 TO 45 KT. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015... .SYNOPSIS... A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SURGE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON GUSTY EAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SNOW FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE EAST AND IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER CENTRAL AND WEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE FASTER PROGRESS THAN THE MODELS CAN KEEP UP WITH. WIND SHIFT HAS ARRIVED AT KTCC WITH A CORRESPONDING NEARLY 20 DEGREE DECREASE IN THE DRY BULB TEMPERATURE. TRIED TO ADJUST FOR THE FASTER TIMING TEMPERATURE AND WIND WISE...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE ALA THE ECMWF AND MET AT LEAST IN THE PLAINS...BUT STILL THE FORECAST MAY LIKELY BE LAGGING BEHIND. NOT ONLY SOME RATHER LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT POP WISE AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME BANDED PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS MORESO LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THINKING THE COLDEST AIR MAY ARRIVE A BIT LATER SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TIMING WISE WITH WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. HOWEVER LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME OF THE BANDED PRECIPITATION MAY START SOONER...AS IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW WILL BE SLOWER TO EJECT AND A TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD BE MORE PERSISTENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THEREFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER. THE MID WEEK FORECAST ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT RATHER A STOUT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A WINTRY SPELL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY...INCREASING SOME IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY INVADED UNION COUNTY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL ENCROACH FARTHER INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL PICK UP SPEED...PRESSING FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS COLDER AIR PLUNGES IN WITH THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL TURN WINTRY...FIRST IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM TODAY...SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN RANGE FROM A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO A MIXED BAG OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. A STRONG CANYON WIND WILL ALSO LIKELY SPILL INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER NM INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GRADUALLY LESSENING INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW EXITS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN IS STILL DEPICTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AS THE VAST LOW EXITS FARTHER AWAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A TRAILING DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONGOING...MOSTLY OVER EASTERN NM. THIS PATTERN COULD COME WITH SOME BOUTS OF STRONGER BREEZES...BUT FOR NOW NO CRITICAL WEATHER IS FORESEEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER...THAT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ526-534-537-539. ICE STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ535-536. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512>515-523-527>533. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ538-540. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511-516>518-521-522-524. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
415 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SURGE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON GUSTY EAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SNOW FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE EAST AND IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER CENTRAL AND WEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE FASTER PROGRESS THAN THE MODELS CAN KEEP UP WITH. WIND SHIFT HAS ARRIVED AT KTCC WITH A CORRESPONDING NEARLY 20 DEGREE DECREASE IN THE DRY BULB TEMPERATURE. TRIED TO ADJUST FOR THE FASTER TIMING TEMPERATURE AND WIND WISE...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE ALA THE ECMWF AND MET AT LEAST IN THE PLAINS...BUT STILL THE FORECAST MAY LIKELY BE LAGGING BEHIND. NOT ONLY SOME RATHER LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT POP WISE AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME BANDED PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS MORESO LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THINKING THE COLDEST AIR MAY ARRIVE A BIT LATER SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TIMING WISE WITH WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. HOWEVER LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME OF THE BANDED PRECIPITATION MAY START SOONER...AS IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW WILL BE SLOWER TO EJECT AND A TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD BE MORE PERSISTENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THEREFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER. THE MID WEEK FORECAST ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT RATHER A STOUT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A WINTRY SPELL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY...INCREASING SOME IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY INVADED UNION COUNTY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL ENCROACH FARTHER INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL PICK UP SPEED...PRESSING FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS COLDER AIR PLUNGES IN WITH THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL TURN WINTRY...FIRST IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM TODAY...SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN RANGE FROM A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO A MIXED BAG OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. A STRONG CANYON WIND WILL ALSO LIKELY SPILL INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER NM INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GRADUALLY LESSENING INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW EXITS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN IS STILL DEPICTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AS THE VAST LOW EXITS FARTHER AWAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A TRAILING DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONGOING...MOSTLY OVER EASTERN NM. THIS PATTERN COULD COME WITH SOME BOUTS OF STRONGER BREEZES...BUT FOR NOW NO CRITICAL WEATHER IS FORESEEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER...THAT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME. 52 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WHERE GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MOST TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT CIGS COULD BE AROUND 040 BEFORE DAYBREAK. IFR AND MAYBE EVEN LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT ROW AFTER 10Z. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FZRA/SLEET FROM CAO TO TCC THURSDAY. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY IN THE NE. ELSEWHERE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MT OBSCURATIONS. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 53 28 44 26 / 10 10 20 20 DULCE........................... 49 27 42 26 / 50 40 60 50 CUBA............................ 50 30 38 24 / 50 30 60 50 GALLUP.......................... 52 23 49 20 / 10 10 10 20 EL MORRO........................ 51 25 49 20 / 10 10 20 30 GRANTS.......................... 56 27 45 21 / 10 20 30 40 QUEMADO......................... 56 30 53 29 / 10 20 20 20 GLENWOOD........................ 60 38 60 33 / 30 30 30 20 CHAMA........................... 44 25 37 21 / 70 50 80 60 LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 33 36 24 / 60 60 70 70 PECOS........................... 50 26 32 20 / 50 80 80 70 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 29 33 17 / 60 70 70 60 RED RIVER....................... 45 22 26 15 / 60 90 70 60 ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 24 27 15 / 50 80 70 60 TAOS............................ 48 27 35 21 / 40 60 60 50 MORA............................ 49 20 28 14 / 40 90 70 70 ESPANOLA........................ 54 34 41 28 / 40 50 50 50 SANTA FE........................ 51 31 35 25 / 40 60 60 60 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 32 37 25 / 30 50 60 50 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 36 38 26 / 30 30 60 50 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 41 41 27 / 30 20 60 40 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 39 42 28 / 30 20 60 40 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 39 42 27 / 30 20 50 40 LOS LUNAS....................... 61 42 42 29 / 30 20 60 50 RIO RANCHO...................... 57 36 39 26 / 30 20 60 50 SOCORRO......................... 65 43 48 32 / 30 20 70 50 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 28 33 22 / 30 50 70 60 TIJERAS......................... 54 31 34 23 / 30 50 70 60 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 27 30 19 / 30 60 80 50 CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 24 27 17 / 30 80 70 70 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 32 34 23 / 40 50 80 60 CARRIZOZO....................... 61 39 40 28 / 50 50 80 60 RUIDOSO......................... 55 34 38 25 / 60 60 80 80 CAPULIN......................... 37 16 23 14 / 60 90 70 70 RATON........................... 43 19 25 15 / 50 90 60 60 SPRINGER........................ 52 21 26 16 / 40 90 60 50 LAS VEGAS....................... 49 22 25 14 / 40 90 60 60 CLAYTON......................... 34 15 23 14 / 70 90 60 60 ROY............................. 45 21 25 16 / 50 80 60 50 CONCHAS......................... 52 24 28 18 / 50 80 60 50 SANTA ROSA...................... 60 25 27 19 / 50 80 60 50 TUCUMCARI....................... 51 25 27 19 / 70 90 70 60 CLOVIS.......................... 61 25 29 20 / 60 90 80 60 PORTALES........................ 65 26 30 22 / 60 90 80 60 FORT SUMNER..................... 63 27 30 21 / 50 80 70 50 ROSWELL......................... 68 40 40 26 / 30 60 70 60 PICACHO......................... 68 34 36 24 / 20 50 70 60 ELK............................. 65 36 38 26 / 40 50 70 70 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ526-534-537-539. ICE STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ535-536. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512>515-523-527>533. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ538-540. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511-516>518-521-522-524. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
418 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF FRIDAY WITH MILD WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR FOR LATE NOVEMBER SATURDAY. THIS DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AND MILD TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 500 MB. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING OVERHEAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND 500 MB AND UP. THERE WERE ALSO SCATTERED AREAS OF LOWER STRATOCUMULUS THAT WERE MIXING OUT WITH THE GROWING BOUNDARY LAYER MAINLY IN NORTHEAST PA AND EAST CENTRAL NY FROM THE WEAK INSOLATION THAT WE SEE IN LATE NOVEMBER. SO FORECAST BEGINS PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS. THE NAM IS AGRESSIVE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPING UP NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NY BETWEEN 21Z AND 09Z AS SEEN IN THE 925 MB RH FIELDS WHICH BECOME SATURATED. THE HRRR HAS MUCH LESS MOISTURE AT THIS LEVEL. THE LATEST RAP ALSO IS MUCH LESS ON THE RH AT THE VERY LOW-LEVELS. HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF RUNS ALSO DON`T HAVE AS MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SO WE WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS HERE AND KEEP MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WON`T BE ARRIVING BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY SO NO PRECIP IN FORECAST GRIDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... FOR FRIDAY, ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE BY 18Z FRIDAY AND TO ABOUT UTICA TO PENN YAN/HORNELL AREA IN CENTRAL NY BY 00Z. THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL, 15Z SREF AND 12Z NAM ARE SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS WHICH HAS THE FRONT A BIT FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH AT 00Z SATURDAY. THE 12Z CMC REMAINS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS FRONT HOLDING IT BACK TO ABOUT SARANAC LAKE TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NY BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT AND AS A RESULT HAVE BACKED OFF SHOWERS THAT ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT SOME. THE MAIN DYNAMICAL FEATURE THAT WAS SUPPORTING LIFT AND RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY BEHIND THIS FRONT WAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WHICH EXTENDS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC NORTHEAST TO THE MARITIMES AT 00Z SATURDAY. THIS JET WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH IT DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. HENCE SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHEAST PA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL QPFS SHOW THIS DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SO HAVE POPS DROPPING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD AFFECT NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NY SATURDAY. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING ALL DAY SATURDAY FOR THE COMBINATION OF THE LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS PER THE 12Z CMC AND EUROPEAN MODELS. THE GFS AND NAM ARE DRY ALL DAY SATURDAY IN OUR AREA. USED SUPERBLEND OF MODELS TO COME UP WITH A CONSENSUS FORECAST. THEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SKIES WILL TURN FAIR. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ALL MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEXT WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. AS ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP IN THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND LEADS TO MILD CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS. THERE BEGINS TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NEXT WEEK BUT IDEA IS THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR AND CHILLY WEATHER FOR NEXT THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE ONLY FLYING CONCERN TODAY BEING GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT KITH, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KSYR AND KBGM. TONIGHT MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS NOW OVER WESTERN VA MAY TRY TO SNEAK NORTHWARD INTO KAVP AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS KBGM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON THIS AS WE HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE COMPUTER MODELS WE USE TO FORECAST. THE BOTTOMLINE THOUGH IS THE TWO TERMINALS MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR MVFR AFTER 06Z. ON FRIDAY MAINLY VFR EARLY, ASIDE FROM ANY LINGERING MVFR AT KAVP AND KBGM. WHILE THIS TAF SET IS DRY, SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE INCLUDED IN THE NEXT FEW TAFS UPDATES WITH RAIN LIKELY 21Z FRIDAY THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. .OUTLOOK... SAT...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CLOUD DECK...BECOMING VFR. SUN/MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN NEAR TERM...DJN SHORT TERM...DJN LONG TERM...DJN AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
153 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF THANKSGIVING DAY DRY AND MILD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT SPREADS RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER INTO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 500 MB. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING OVERHEAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND 500 MB AND UP. THERE WERE ALSO SCATTERED AREAS OF LOWER STRATOCUMULUS THAT WERE MIXING OUT WITH THE GROWING BOUNDARY LAYER MAINLY IN NORTHEAST PA AND EAST CENTRAL NY FROM THE WEAK INSOLATION THAT WE SEE IN LATE NOVEMBER. SO FORECAST BEGINS PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS. THE NAM IS AGRESSIVE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPING UP NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NY BETWEEN 21Z AND 09Z AS SEEN IN THE 925 MB RH FIELDS WHICH BECOME SATURATED. THE HRRR HAS MUCH LESS MOISTURE AT THIS LEVEL. THE LATEST RAP ALSO IS MUCH LESS ON THE RH AT THE VERY LOW-LEVELS. HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF RUNS ALSO DON`T HAVE AS MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SO WE WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS HERE AND KEEP MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WON`T BE ARRIVING BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY SO NO PRECIP IN FORECAST GRIDS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ANOTHER MILD DAY IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS +10C 925MB ISOTHERM PUSHES TO THE NY/PA BORDER. TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 60 DOWN THE LAKE PLAIN. COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS WARRANTS CATEGORICAL POPS, THOUGH QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. DRY AIR RACES OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ON SATURDAY, CUTTING OFF THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS. COOL AND QUIET ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER ONTARIO AND NEW ENGLAND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM 40. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY... THEN THE NEXT SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA. SNOW CHANCES APPEAR TO BE QUITE LOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WINTER GETS OFF TO A SLOW START ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE ONLY FLYING CONCERN TODAY BEING GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT KITH, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KSYR AND KBGM. TONIGHT MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS NOW OVER WESTERN VA MAY TRY TO SNEAK NORTHWARD INTO KAVP AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS KBGM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON THIS AS WE HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE COMPUTER MODELS WE USE TO FORECAST. THE BOTTOMLINE THOUGH IS THE TWO TERMINALS MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR MVFR AFTER 06Z. ON FRIDAY MAINLY VFR EARLY, ASIDE FROM ANY LINGERING MVFR AT KAVP AND KBGM. WHILE THIS TAF SET IS DRY, SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE INCLUDED IN THE NEXT FEW TAFS UPDATES WITH RAIN LIKELY 21Z FRIDAY THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. .OUTLOOK... SAT...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CLOUD DECK...BECOMING VFR. SUN/MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN/DJP NEAR TERM...DJN SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...MSE AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1250 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS CONTINUES WITH MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE LOOKOUT AND THIS RAIN IS SLOWLY WORKING IT WAY TO THE COAST NORTH OF US. THE HRRR AND OTHER GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COASTAL AREAS MAYBE SEEING AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAINLY NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A REALLY INTERESTING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS THANKSGIVING DAY: AN UPPER RIDGE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE SE STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS DISTURBANCE HELPS CUT OFF A BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHICH THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SINK INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER US SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE ANY CIRRUS ADVECTING EASTWARD FROM STORMINESS IN THE PLAINS STATES AND WILL MAINTAIN A VERY DRY AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. BELOW 800 MB (ABOUT 7000 FEET AGL) ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BRING IN MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS APPEAR LESS BULLISH ON THE DEPTH AND TIME WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR CLOUD COVER. WATCHING HOW DIFFICULT A TIME THE ATLANTIC STRATOCUMULUS HAS HAD PUSHING WESTWARD TODAY GIVES ME PAUSE TO FORECAST ANYTHING WORSE THAN "PARTLY CLOUDY" THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ACTUALLY DRY OUT SLIGHTLY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS ARE PREFERRED OVER THE 12Z NAM GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE BETTER HANDLING OF THE DOMINANCE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH LATER THIS WEEK. THE NAM IS LIKELY WRONG WITH ITS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE CAROLINAS...THEN PINWHEELING IT WESTWARD AROUND THE TOPSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. IN THE NAM THIS FEATURE DISTORTS OUR LOW-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND CREATES COLD ADVECTION THAT DOESN`T APPEAR IN THE OTHER TWO MODELS. FORECAST HIGHS/LOWS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED VERY NEAR THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF VALUES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO GIVE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FITS NEXT WEEK. PERIOD BEGINS WITH FLATTENING 5H RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION WARM AND DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MID LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO TRANSITION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN SLOWLY STARTS MOVING EAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT STALLED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON SUN WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST MON INTO TUE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA AND PRECIP POTENTIAL MON INTO TUE LOOKS LIMITED. THE FRONT ALSO DRIFTS EAST MON/TUE ENDING UP STALLED IN THE KY/TN VALLEYS AS SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EAST COAST HOLDS STRONG. EVENTUALLY 5H LOW EMERGING FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAINS IN QUESTION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP POP CAPPED AT LOW CHC THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO FOG LATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT. MODELS REMAIN IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS HAVE KEPT THE POTENTIAL IN GOING FORECAST WITH MAINLY VFR ALONG THE COAST AND TEMPO MVFR...AND PREVAILING MVFR FOG INLAND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR. CONFIDENCE FOR ANY IFR REMAINS LOW ATTM. AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH LINGERING SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KT WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 18 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST... SUBSIDING BY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE NORTHEAST WINDS TO BLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 KT. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET WITH A FEW 7 FOOTERS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SEAS JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WILL BE SLIGHT LESS AS THESE WATERS ARE PROTECTED FROM THE LONGER FETCH. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN LATER THIS WEEK... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NE WINDS AT A HEFTY 15-20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SUCH A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AFFECTED BY THESE WINDS LOOK FOR SEAS TO INCREASE TO 7-8 FEET AT 10-20 MILE DISTANCES FROM SHORE NEAR CAPE FEAR AND EAST OF WINYAH BAY. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8-10 SECONDS. CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN ROUGHER OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM WHERE CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST. GRADIENT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST FLOW AT OR ABOVE 15 KT WILL KEEP SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS EXPOSED TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 FT NEAR SHORE TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...TIDES MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS AT THE BEACHES WITH THURSDAY`S 7 AM HIGH TIDE. ONLY A 0.5 TO 0.7 FOOT ANOMALY WILL BE ENOUGH TO REACH THE 6.0 FT MLLW FLOOD LEVEL AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND 7.5 FT MLLW AT MYRTLE BEACH. THIS APPEARS POSSIBLE GIVEN SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...III AVIATION...RJD/SGL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 CURRENTLY...A LARGE COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND OVER MONTANA. AT UPPER LEVELS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA TO NEAR THE MT/ND/SASK/MAN BORDER AREA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE WESTERLIES WAS IN THE FORM OF A NEARLY CUTOFF LOW OVER NEVADA...WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUED TO SHOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES OVER NORTHERN MONTANA. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS UPDATE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN HIGH RES MODELS REGARDING CLOUD COVER BUT THE RAP 13 H925 RH FIELD MAY HAVE THE BEST SOLUTION WITH A VERY GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE STATE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LOOK TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MADE SOME TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THE WEST...AS APPARENT CLEARING OR AT LEAST TEMPORARY CLEARING IN THE FAR WEST NEAR BEACH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND ZERO. ADJUSTED MINIMUM TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMPS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS CLEARING IN EASTERN MONTANA APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE RAP13 925RH HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOW CLOUDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY WITH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REMAINING CLOUDY THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. FOLLOWED THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM EAST WHICH IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAS THIS EVENINGS LIGHT SNOW CAPTURED IN THE SOUTH. HAVE EXTENDED THE SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND ENTIRE FAR SOUTH THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE NORTH OVERNIGHT. IN THE WEST EXPECTING SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS COVERED WELL AND THE TREND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK GIVEN ABOVE SCENARIO. UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 LATEST REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING TO STRADDLE THE FAR SOUTHERN BORDER...WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES COVERING MOST REPORTING STATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IN THE NORTH HAVE VARIED FROM A TRACE AT WILLISTON AND MINOT...TO BETWEEN 0.01 TO 0.02 AT WATFORD CITY AND TIOGA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM SASKATCHEWAN. THE RAP13 SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAP13 MAINTAINS A SWATH OF HIGH 925MB-850MB RH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL AWAIT THE 00Z SUITE OF DATA EVALUATE BEYOND TONIGHT. FOR THIS UPDATE WILL SLOW DOWN THE DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS AND INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING. CURRENTLY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TWO AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE FIRST VERY LIGHT IF ANYTHING ACROSS THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...AND THE SECOND A BAND OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV WHICH EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW LAST NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY WITH THE MORE ENHANCED RADAR RETURNS. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS AREA IN THE HWO FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SPREAD WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. THIS WILL ACT TO END THE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SKY COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO MID TEENS...AND A COLD DAY FOR THANKSGIVING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 123 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WIDE ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THIS WEEKEND`S STORM. THEREFORE...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE 12 UTC RUNS WOULD PLACE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DO WRAP IN A SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY MONDAY. UTILIZING A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS YIELDS AROUND AN INCH OR TWO TOTAL OF SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 FOR FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD LIKELY MELT MOST OR ALL SNOW THAT ACCUMULATES OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE MAIN LOW SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. OTHERWISE...THE LONG TERM APPEARS QUIET...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND TEENS/TWENTIES FOR LOWS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN VARIOUS MODELS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE. WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IN MONTANA HAD BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DESPITE VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTING CLEARING. THUS TAFS INDICATE MVFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AERODROMES OF KISN/KDIK THURSDAY MORNING 12Z TO 15Z...WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER KMOT/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JV SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1258 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOS IN SRN INDIANA. THE LATEST GFS AND HRRR ARE SHOWING THAT THESE MIGHT SNEAK INTO OUR INDIANA COUNTIES. DONT THINK THEY WILL BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...SO JUST ADDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD...SO NO CHANGES THERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT. DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST TO END FRIDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND PVA. SHOWERS WILL REACH MOST LOCATIONS INCLUDING CINCINNATI...DAYTON AND COLUMBUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS MAY NOT REACH FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT LACKS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL CAUSE STREAMS TO RISE BUT FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO STAY NEAR 60 FRIDAY WHEN WARM AIR WILL LINGER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP READINGS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LOW 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE FLATTENS...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ENDS UP DRY ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF KEPT A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN OPPOSITION TO ITS 00Z RUN AND THE 12Z GEM/GFS FORECAST SCENARIOS. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS SOME DEGREE OF WHITTLING AWAY THE POPS FROM THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION IS ALSO PREFERRED WITH THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. BASED ON GFSE SPREADS AND THE OVERALL SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE WEATHER FEATURES BEYOND THE WEEKEND IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARM STARTING POINT AT THE END OF THIS WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL STILL END UP VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL (PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW). A MORE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD (MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TAFS WILL REMAIN WARM SECTORED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH FRONT OUT OVER THE MS VALLEY. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OF 6KFT CLOUDS AROUND KILN WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING JUST CI OVER THE TAFS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD LOSE THEIR GUSTS AROUND SUNSET...REMAINING SLY AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT. GUSTS AROUND 20KTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTER 14Z. HELD PCPN OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...JUST ADDING A VCSH AT KCVG NEAR THE END OF THE 30 HOUR TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
946 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOS IN SRN INDIANA. THE LATEST GFS AND HRRR ARE SHOWING THAT THESE MIGHT SNEAK INTO OUR INDIANA COUNTIES. DONT THINK THEY WILL BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...SO JUST ADDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD...SO NO CHANGES THERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT. DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST TO END FRIDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND PVA. SHOWERS WILL REACH MOST LOCATIONS INCLUDING CINCINNATI...DAYTON AND COLUMBUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS MAY NOT REACH FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT LACKS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL CAUSE STREAMS TO RISE BUT FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO STAY NEAR 60 FRIDAY WHEN WARM AIR WILL LINGER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP READINGS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LOW 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE FLATTENS...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ENDS UP DRY ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF KEPT A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN OPPOSITION TO ITS 00Z RUN AND THE 12Z GEM/GFS FORECAST SCENARIOS. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS SOME DEGREE OF WHITTLING AWAY THE POPS FROM THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION IS ALSO PREFERRED WITH THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. BASED ON GFSE SPREADS AND THE OVERALL SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE WEATHER FEATURES BEYOND THE WEEKEND IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARM STARTING POINT AT THE END OF THIS WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL STILL END UP VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL (PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW). A MORE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD (MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. OHIO WILL BE BETWEEN SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET WILL RESULT IN CIGS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE THIN OUT TOWARD EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 13 KTS WILL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURG THE DAY AND THEN CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1127 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY DEALING WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TO START...HAVE AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AREA. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO LAST ANY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS IN ANY ONE LOCATION...SO OPTING TO NOT ISSUE HEADLINE NORTH OF EXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MORNING WILL BE ON SCATTERED PRECIP AREA LIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE BULK OF APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF A TYNDALL-SIOUX FALLS-SLAYTON MN LINE. WARM LAYER MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 850-750MB ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS THE PROBLEMATIC COMPONENT OF THE FORECAST. NAM/RAP HOLD ON TO WARM LAYER LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS COOLS THE LAYER MORE QUICKLY. A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WHICH SOLUTION WILL PAN OUT...ESPECIALLY SINCE SURFACE COOLING HAS BEEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BLENDED APPROACH GIVES RATE OF COOLING ALOFT SIMILAR TO RECENT RAP RUNS AND SEE NO STRONG REASON TO DIVERGE FROM THAT AT THIS POINT. END RESULT IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN OTHER WORDS...STILL LOOKING FOR THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10-0.15 INCH IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST... AND LIGHT ICING OUTSIDE THE EARLY MORNING FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT AS FAR NORTH AS PONCA-LE MARS-SPIRIT LAKE. THIS SHOULD BE TOPPED BY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. GOING LOCATION OF ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION THREAT STILL GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MID AND UPPER 20S...WITH LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE ON SATURDAY IN A TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MUDDLED WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ON SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM DUMBELLING A VORT MAX AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THUS BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO OUR WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM ROTATE THE VORT MAX INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THUS KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...KEEPING LOW END POPS IN OUR WEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT. LOWS LOOKING TO BE IN THE TEENS. WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS SOMEWHAT CONVERGE ON BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CONSENSUS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OUR AREA DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30 AND LOWS UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE MUCH LESS ORGANIZED. AFTER ABOUT 23Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ071. MN...NONE. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ003- 013-014-020>022-031-032. NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013- 014. && $$ SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
557 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY DEALING WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TO START...HAVE AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AREA. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO LAST ANY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS IN ANY ONE LOCATION...SO OPTING TO NOT ISSUE HEADLINE NORTH OF EXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MORNING WILL BE ON SCATTERED PRECIP AREA LIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE BULK OF APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF A TYNDALL-SIOUX FALLS-SLAYTON MN LINE. WARM LAYER MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 850-750MB ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS THE PROBLEMATIC COMPONENT OF THE FORECAST. NAM/RAP HOLD ON TO WARM LAYER LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS COOLS THE LAYER MORE QUICKLY. A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WHICH SOLUTION WILL PAN OUT...ESPECIALLY SINCE SURFACE COOLING HAS BEEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BLENDED APPROACH GIVES RATE OF COOLING ALOFT SIMILAR TO RECENT RAP RUNS AND SEE NO STRONG REASON TO DIVERGE FROM THAT AT THIS POINT. END RESULT IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN OTHER WORDS...STILL LOOKING FOR THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10-0.15 INCH IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST... AND LIGHT ICING OUTSIDE THE EARLY MORNING FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT AS FAR NORTH AS PONCA-LE MARS-SPIRIT LAKE. THIS SHOULD BE TOPPED BY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. GOING LOCATION OF ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION THREAT STILL GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MID AND UPPER 20S...WITH LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE ON SATURDAY IN A TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MUDDLED WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ON SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM DUMBELLING A VORT MAX AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THUS BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO OUR WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM ROTATE THE VORT MAX INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THUS KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...KEEPING LOW END POPS IN OUR WEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT. LOWS LOOKING TO BE IN THE TEENS. WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS SOMEWHAT CONVERGE ON BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CONSENSUS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OUR AREA DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30 AND LOWS UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 557 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 WINTRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF KFSD. MOST IMPACTED TAF LOCATION WILL BE KSUX...BEGINNING WITH MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGHOUT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST IOWA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KVMR-KSHL-KMJQ. ACCUMULATING ICE AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. FARTHER NORTHWEST...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE REPLACED WITH AREAS OF -SN...WITH MVFR- VFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE FOR KFSD/KHON THROUGH 18Z...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ071. MN...NONE. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ003- 013-014-020>022-031-032. NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013- 014. && $$ SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY DEALING WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TO START...HAVE AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AREA. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO LAST ANY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS IN ANY ONE LOCATION...SO OPTING TO NOT ISSUE HEADLINE NORTH OF EXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MORNING WILL BE ON SCATTERED PRECIP AREA LIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE BULK OF APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF A TYNDALL-SIOUX FALLS-SLAYTON MN LINE. WARM LAYER MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 850-750MB ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS THE PROBLEMATIC COMPONENT OF THE FORECAST. NAM/RAP HOLD ON TO WARM LAYER LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS COOLS THE LAYER MORE QUICKLY. A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WHICH SOLUTION WILL PAN OUT...ESPECIALLY SINCE SURFACE COOLING HAS BEEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BLENDED APPROACH GIVES RATE OF COOLING ALOFT SIMILAR TO RECENT RAP RUNS AND SEE NO STRONG REASON TO DIVERGE FROM THAT AT THIS POINT. END RESULT IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN OTHER WORDS...STILL LOOKING FOR THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10-0.15 INCH IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST... AND LIGHT ICING OUTSIDE THE EARLY MORNING FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT AS FAR NORTH AS PONCA-LE MARS-SPIRIT LAKE. THIS SHOULD BE TOPPED BY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. GOING LOCATION OF ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION THREAT STILL GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MID AND UPPER 20S...WITH LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE ON SATURDAY IN A TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MUDDLED WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ON SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM DUMBELLING A VORT MAX AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THUS BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO OUR WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM ROTATE THE VORT MAX INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THUS KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...KEEPING LOW END POPS IN OUR WEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT. LOWS LOOKING TO BE IN THE TEENS. WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS SOMEWHAT CONVERGE ON BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CONSENSUS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OUR AREA DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30 AND LOWS UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 539 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY ELSEWHERE...HOWEVER THE WINTRY MIX WILL BECOME MORE STEADY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SWITCHING TO ENTIRELY SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN MIXED PRECIPITATION...WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 2 MILES ONCE THE SWITCH TO SNOWFALL OCCURS. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ071. MN...NONE. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ003- 013-014-020>022-031-032. NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013- 014. && $$ SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
520 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 .UPDATE... FOR 00Z AVIATION. && .DISCUSSION... FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN TO THE ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH A VERY MILD AND WET WEEK AHEAD FOR THE MID STATE. RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND 19Z HRRR INDICATE LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN SPREAD FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY. RAIN ANTICIPATED TO BECOME EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD AND OF HEAVIER INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS INDICATE RAIN WILL SLACKEN OFF SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED 80 KT H5 SPEED MAX EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW K-INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 30S AND LI VALUES OF -1 ON MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL IS LOW. TOTAL QPF THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY IS A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH MOST AREAS LOOKING TO SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN A BIT HIGHER IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DRY OUR AREA OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH GFS INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN BUT ECMWF KEEPING US DRY. WILL SHOW LOW POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IN AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. COOLER TEMPS LOOK LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. KCKV SHOULD SEE THE WORST OF THINGS AS LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND EXPEDITE THE CIG LOWERING. EITHER WAY...IFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED FOR KCKV BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. LOWERED CIGS AND VIS WILL TAKE CONSIDERABLY LONGER FOR KBNA/KCSV...WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR KBNA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND IT COULD BE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY BEFORE KCSV SEES ANY REDUCED CATEGORIES. WINDS WILL BE 8-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION........27/UNGER LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
919 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 .UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO MAX POPS AT 100 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM BEXAR AND MEDINA COUNTIES...UP THROUGH LLANO COUNTY. THIS AREA ON RADAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH THE NORTHWARD TREND OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER. KEPT THE ISOLATED THUNDER IN FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS...BUT REMOVED AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE SEEN ONLY 1 OR 2 STRIKES OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS AND WITH THE SURFACE GETTING COLDER AND NO EVIDENCE OF STRONG LIFT COMING IN FROM THE WEST...FEEL THAT THE RISK OF THUNDER IS DROPPING QUICKLY. HAVE ALSO REDUCED POP OUT WEST TO 50 PERCENT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LACK OF ENHANCEMENT ON IR SATELLITE. ALL THE MESO MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED RAIN AREAS OVERNIGHT WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZATION. FEEL THAT OUR CURRENT QPF LOOKS GOOD WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OVERNIGHT IN SOME SPOTS. FRONT IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF OUR CWA WITH IT BEING OVER SOUTHERN ATASCOSA COUNTY AND OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES. AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL GET NEAR STEADY TEMPS OVERNIGHT. AREAS IN THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY HAVE SEEN SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ALREADY BUT ALL MODELS KEEP THE AREA ABOVE FREEZING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ICE AT THIS TIME...JUST A COLD RAIN. WITH ALL THE METARS SHOWING NEAR SATURATION AND RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THERE IS NOT MUCH ROOM FOR WET BULBING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/ AVIATION... NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN FLYING CONDITIONS DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL CONTROL CATEGORY. AUS WILL BE IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS AND DRT ARE MVFR...BUT DROP TO IFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD NOT GO BELOW MVFR. THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH AUS AND DRT AND IS JUST REACHING SAT. SHOULD BE THROUGH SAT AND SSF WITHING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 1O TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATE MORNING SATURDAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... AS OF 3 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LEXINGTON TO AUSTIN TO DEL RIO. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE AT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN CLEAR THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING IN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS FOR OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME 2 INCH IN 6 HOUR RAIN TOTALS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEHIND THE FRONT. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF AMOUNTS THIS HIGH FOR THIS AREA...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE PW VALUES TOO HIGH WITH 2 INCH VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS ONLY SHOWS 1.8 INCHES...WHICH IS STILL ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DO THINK RAIN WILL FALL FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EVEN IF 2 INCHES FALL OVER 6 HOURS...RAIN RATES SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THE COLD SECTOR AND THE BEST WARM-RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE SHUT DOWN. CONTINUE TO THINK THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF MAY ACTUALLY FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES....BETWEEN DEL RIO AND SAN ANTONIO. THE VARIOUS WRF MODELS AND NOW THE HRRR CONTINUE TO PROG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP NEAR DEL RIO...THEN TRACK TO THE ESE IN THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE WOULD LIKELY HELP LOCALLY ENHANCE THE LIFT TO SUPPORT BETTER PRECIPITATION RATES. THE LOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST IN THE AREA AS SOME OF THE AIR BECOMES WRAPPED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW ALSO ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP RATES. IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED SURFACE TROUGH...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTING TO THIS REGION AS WELL FOR THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING MORE ENHANCEMENT IN THE REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES VERSUS THE EASTERN AND THIS IS LIKELY THE REASON. OUR STORM TOTAL PRECIP GRAPHIC FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AN AXIS FROM ZAVALA COUNTY UP INTO MEDINA/UVALDE AND NORTHEAST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AM EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR THIS AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS REACHING 4+. WHILE THERE ARE ABNORMALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND A FRONT...THERE ARE SEVERAL INGREDIENTS LACKING FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR OUR AREA. THE FIRST IS DEEP FORCING FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER UTAH AND A RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BEST SHEAR AXIS /LIFT/ REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS MEANS OUR MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION. SECOND...OUR REGION IS ALSO UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WHICH ALSO ISNT FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THIRD...WE DO HAVE A COLD FRONT IN PLACE BUT THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO STALL AND THUS WILL NOT SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. LASTLY...THE 850 FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...DETACHED FROM THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL NOT ENHANCE FRONTAL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TO SUMMARIZE...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED PLACES...BUT WE ARE LACKING MECHANISMS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OUT OF THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S/40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL NOT WARM MUCH FROM THOSE VALUES. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS TOMORROW AS THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT FROM TODAY. THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWERING RAIN AMOUNTS EVEN FURTHER. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF AREA...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHEAR AXIS. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S ONCE AGAIN. LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... FOR SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...BUT NOT BY MUCH AS NORTH WINDS REMAIN AT THE SURFACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PERSIST AND EXPECT LOW POPS TO CONTINUE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SHIFT THE RAIN CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND THESE POPS WILL ONLY BE 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTH FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN OPEN TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SET UP OVER THE AREA AND WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE CURRENT EVENT AND MORE TYPICAL FOR THE WINTER SEASON. THE FORECAST WILL DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 44 46 43 49 45 / 90 80 70 60 30 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 43 47 44 49 44 / 90 80 70 60 30 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 45 47 44 51 45 / 90 80 70 60 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 41 44 40 47 42 / 100 80 70 70 20 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 41 47 44 57 45 / 80 60 50 30 - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 40 44 41 48 42 / 90 80 70 70 30 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 43 48 44 53 46 / 100 80 70 50 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 44 46 44 50 45 / 90 80 70 60 30 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 50 44 51 48 / 80 70 60 60 30 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 47 48 45 51 47 / 100 80 70 60 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 49 50 46 53 48 / 100 80 70 50 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
559 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 .AVIATION... NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN FLYING CONDITIONS DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL CONTROL CATEGORY. AUS WILL BE IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS AND DRT ARE MVFR...BUT DROP TO IFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD NOT GO BELOW MVFR. THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH AUS AND DRT AND IS JUST REACHING SAT. SHOULD BE THROUGH SAT AND SSF WITHING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 1O TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATE MORNING SATURDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... AS OF 3 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LEXINGTON TO AUSTIN TO DEL RIO. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE AT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN CLEAR THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING IN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS FOR OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME 2 INCH IN 6 HOUR RAIN TOTALS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEHIND THE FRONT. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF AMOUNTS THIS HIGH FOR THIS AREA...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE PW VALUES TOO HIGH WITH 2 INCH VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS ONLY SHOWS 1.8 INCHES...WHICH IS STILL ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DO THINK RAIN WILL FALL FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EVEN IF 2 INCHES FALL OVER 6 HOURS...RAIN RATES SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THE COLD SECTOR AND THE BEST WARM-RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE SHUT DOWN. CONTINUE TO THINK THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF MAY ACTUALLY FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES....BETWEEN DEL RIO AND SAN ANTONIO. THE VARIOUS WRF MODELS AND NOW THE HRRR CONTINUE TO PROG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP NEAR DEL RIO...THEN TRACK TO THE ESE IN THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE WOULD LIKELY HELP LOCALLY ENHANCE THE LIFT TO SUPPORT BETTER PRECIPITATION RATES. THE LOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST IN THE AREA AS SOME OF THE AIR BECOMES WRAPPED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW ALSO ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP RATES. IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED SURFACE TROUGH...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTING TO THIS REGION AS WELL FOR THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING MORE ENHANCEMENT IN THE REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES VERSUS THE EASTERN AND THIS IS LIKELY THE REASON. OUR STORM TOTAL PRECIP GRAPHIC FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AN AXIS FROM ZAVALA COUNTY UP INTO MEDINA/UVALDE AND NORTHEAST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AM EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR THIS AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS REACHING 4+. WHILE THERE ARE ABNORMALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND A FRONT...THERE ARE SEVERAL INGREDIENTS LACKING FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR OUR AREA. THE FIRST IS DEEP FORCING FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER UTAH AND A RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BEST SHEAR AXIS /LIFT/ REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS MEANS OUR MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION. SECOND...OUR REGION IS ALSO UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WHICH ALSO ISNT FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THIRD...WE DO HAVE A COLD FRONT IN PLACE BUT THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO STALL AND THUS WILL NOT SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. LASTLY...THE 850 FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...DETACHED FROM THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL NOT ENHANCE FRONTAL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TO SUMMARIZE...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED PLACES...BUT WE ARE LACKING MECHANISMS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OUT OF THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S/40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL NOT WARM MUCH FROM THOSE VALUES. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS TOMORROW AS THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT FROM TODAY. THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWERING RAIN AMOUNTS EVEN FURTHER. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF AREA...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHEAR AXIS. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S ONCE AGAIN. LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... FOR SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...BUT NOT BY MUCH AS NORTH WINDS REMAIN AT THE SURFACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PERSIST AND EXPECT LOW POPS TO CONTINUE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SHIFT THE RAIN CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND THESE POPS WILL ONLY BE 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTH FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN OPEN TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SET UP OVER THE AREA AND WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE CURRENT EVENT AND MORE TYPICAL FOR THE WINTER SEASON. THE FORECAST WILL DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 44 46 43 49 45 / 90 80 70 60 30 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 43 47 44 49 44 / 80 80 70 60 30 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 45 47 44 51 45 / 80 80 70 60 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 41 44 40 47 42 / 90 80 70 70 20 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 41 47 44 57 45 / 80 60 50 30 - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 40 44 41 48 42 / 90 80 70 70 30 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 43 48 44 53 46 / 90 80 70 50 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 44 46 44 50 45 / 80 80 70 60 30 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 50 44 51 48 / 80 70 60 60 30 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 47 48 45 51 47 / 90 80 70 60 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 49 50 46 53 48 / 80 80 70 50 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1208 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .AVIATION... CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR....SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE ONLY VCSH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REACH ALL AREA TAF SITES BY AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON...IF NOT SOONER. IN THE MEANTIME...MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT LOWER TO IFR WHEN THE MORE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PUSHES INTO THE TERMINALS. IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ONCE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET...INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH SO ONLY SHRA IS MENTIONED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FROPA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 12Z FRIDAY FOR THE DFW AREA TERMINALS AND BY 18Z FOR KACT. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS ENHANCED CONVECTION. DESPITE TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE 30S...DO NOT EXPECT WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. AJS && .UPDATE... A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO MORNING RAIN CHANCES HAS BEEN MADE AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE WEST OF I-35/35W DRASTICALLY AS OF MID MORNING. LOOKING AT THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS...THE TTU WRF SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE WITH THIS EARLIER DEVELOPMENT THAN THE HRRR...NAM AND WRF-EAST MODELS...WHICH HOLD OFF MORE TIL THIS AFTERNOON. I INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF I-35W TO LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES WEST OF HWY 281. IN ADDITION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THANKGIVING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THOUGH A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE DFW METRO NORTH AND WEST...MY CONCERN IS MORE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE WARMER TEMPS AND STRONGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG COULD OCCUR IF HIGHS CAN REACH THE MID 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION... MID LEVEL LASPE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEPER AND CLOSER TO 7 DEG C/KM ACROSS CENTRAL TX VERSUS 6 DEG C/KM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO RELATIVELY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...LEFT THE AFTERNOON CONFIGURATION OF RAIN CHANCES THE SAME. IN ADDITION...I TONED DOWN THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT A STRONG OR BRIEF SEVERE STORM COULDN/T HAPPEN BEING THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CORRELATE WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SPEED SHEAR BETWEEN 35-45 KTS IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE CENTRAL TX WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE. 05/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015/ THE OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...PRIMARILY TO TODAY/S FORECAST WHICH IS PROBABLY THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS BECAUSE WE ARE A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS A LEAD IMPULSE AND STRONG JET STREAK MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL OF THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THEIR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS AND ALSO BUMPED UP THE START OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6PM. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT GENERALLY SAYS NO - THAT WE WILL BE TOO COOL AT THE SURFACE...BUT THEY ARE ONLY FORECASTING UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND WE CURRENTLY ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FORECASTS FROM THE MOS INDICATE WE SHOULD REACH THE LOW 70S AND MODIFYING THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GIVES US ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A MARGINAL WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. SINCE THIS THREAT IS SO RELIANT ON DAYTIME INSTABILITY THE WINDOW WILL BE BRIEF FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM. THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SHIFT THE EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL AXIS ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE WEST AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THAT DIRECTION. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING AVERAGE TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES...WITH THE 7 INCH BULLSEYE NOW NEAR GAINESVILLE. 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-20 AND I-30 CORRIDORS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OF COURSE GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NAM WHICH HAS DISPLAYED EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND USUALLY IS THE BEST MODEL TO USE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NW ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE DFW METROPLEX AROUND SUNRISE...WACO AREA BY NOON AND CLEARING THE SOUTHEAST ZONES LATE AFTERNOON. THE NAM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY REASONABLE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR KNIFING SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER OVER THE EAST WHERE THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE MORE SHALLOW AND MORE PRONE TO MODERATION FROM WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE GROUND. TEMPS WILL DROP 20 TO 30 DEGREES WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT SO THE NUMBERS LISTED ON FRIDAY/S HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS MISLEADING SINCE TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM APPRECIABLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GIVEN ALL OF THE RAIN IN THE AREA AND CONTINUING WEAK COLD ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS RAIN IS FALLING. BECAUSE THE AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS VERY WARM...THE RAIN WILL HELP TRANSPORT SOME OF THIS HEAT TO THE GROUND. RAINDROPS WILL BE TOO WARM TO FREEZE WHEN THEY REACH THE SURFACE...SO NO TRUE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER IF THERE IS A LONG ENOUGH BREAK IN THE RAIN...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN WATER MAY FREEZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES. THIS IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS. THE TIMING AND CHARACTER OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE AS THE CAUSE OF LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE CHANGES TO DIFFERENT FORCING MECHANISMS. TODAY AND TONIGHT/S RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND BE CAPABLE OF HIGH BUT VERY LOCALIZED 2+ INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST GRADUALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN THERE COULD BE A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SOLID BAND OF RAIN AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE WARM MOIST AIR IS LIFTED VIA FRONTOGENESIS. THIS BAND SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NW ZONES AND INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES BY SUNRISE BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL BE SO SHALLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES...ITS LIFTING POWER WILL BECOME MARGINALIZED. THEREFORE WE EXPECT JUST A LOT OF WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY AS PACIFIC HURRICANE SANDRA BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA. SANDRA WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE EAST OF THE BAJA REGION OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO AND THROUGH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE PACIFIC MOISTURE...THE REAL INFLUENCE AND CAUSE OF THE PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN OVER TEXAS WILL BE FROM STRONG DYNAMICS FOR LIFT ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS LIFT PEAKS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD PRODUCE A LARGE BAND OF MODERATE RAIN THAT STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BAND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE RAIN RATES WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH WITH THIS ROUND OF RAIN ACTIVITY...THE RAIN WILL BE PERSISTENT RESULTING IN MULTI-INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURATED SOILS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDRA CLEAR THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIMARILY DUE TO A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS VERY WET BY TUESDAY BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH THAT SYSTEM EVERY RUN. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND UKMET SHOW A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THURSDAY. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE REGION. AGAIN WILL KEEP THE POPS AT 10 PERCENT...BUT KEEP A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND WITH COOL AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS. TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 50 55 38 39 / 70 90 100 90 100 WACO, TX 75 65 69 39 41 / 60 60 80 70 80 PARIS, TX 71 62 68 39 43 / 40 80 90 90 100 DENTON, TX 70 46 49 36 38 / 80 90 100 90 100 MCKINNEY, TX 72 53 56 37 40 / 60 90 100 90 100 DALLAS, TX 74 56 59 38 40 / 60 80 90 90 90 TERRELL, TX 74 64 68 39 42 / 50 70 90 80 90 CORSICANA, TX 75 65 71 41 44 / 50 60 70 80 80 TEMPLE, TX 74 66 70 39 42 / 50 50 70 70 70 MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 44 47 33 35 / 80 90 100 90 100 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
949 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .UPDATE... A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO MORNING RAIN CHANCES HAS BEEN MADE AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE WEST OF I-35/35W DRASTICALLY AS OF MID MORNING. LOOKING AT THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS...THE TTU WRF SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE WITH THIS EARLIER DEVELOPMENT THAN THE HRRR...NAM AND WRF-EAST MODELS...WHICH HOLD OFF MORE TIL THIS AFTERNOON. I INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF I-35W TO LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES WEST OF HWY 281. IN ADDITION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THANKGIVING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THOUGH A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE DFW METRO NORTH AND WEST...MY CONCERN IS MORE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE WARMER TEMPS AND STRONGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG COULD OCCUR IF HIGHS CAN REACH THE MID 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION... MID LEVEL LASPE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEPER AND CLOSER TO 7 DEG C/KM ACROSS CENTRAL TX VERSUS 6 DEG C/KM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO RELATIVELY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...LEFT THE AFTERNOON CONFIGURATION OF RAIN CHANCES THE SAME. IN ADDITION...I TONED DOWN THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT A STRONG OR BRIEF SEVERE STORM COULDN/T HAPPEN BEING THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CORRELATE WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SPEED SHEAR BETWEEN 35-45 KTS IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE CENTRAL TX WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE. 05/ && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015/ /12Z TAFS/ CONCERNS...IFR AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING. THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL WITH STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20 KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS OCCASIONALLY OVER 25 KTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WILL CARRY VCTS FROM 21Z INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE CHANGED TO TSRA IN A FUTURE TAF ISSUANCE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY AT KACT THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY IN THE DFW METROPLEX...BUT THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BETWEEN 12-14Z FRIDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE DFW METROPLEX. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT KACT AROUND 18Z. THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH AROUND 15 KTS. RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MOSTLY SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. JLDUNN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015/ THE OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...PRIMARILY TO TODAY/S FORECAST WHICH IS PROBABLY THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS BECAUSE WE ARE A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS A LEAD IMPULSE AND STRONG JET STREAK MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL OF THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THEIR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS AND ALSO BUMPED UP THE START OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6PM. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT GENERALLY SAYS NO - THAT WE WILL BE TOO COOL AT THE SURFACE...BUT THEY ARE ONLY FORECASTING UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND WE CURRENTLY ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FORECASTS FROM THE MOS INDICATE WE SHOULD REACH THE LOW 70S AND MODIFYING THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GIVES US ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A MARGINAL WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. SINCE THIS THREAT IS SO RELIANT ON DAYTIME INSTABILITY THE WINDOW WILL BE BRIEF FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM. THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SHIFT THE EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL AXIS ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE WEST AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THAT DIRECTION. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING AVERAGE TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES...WITH THE 7 INCH BULLSEYE NOW NEAR GAINESVILLE. 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-20 AND I-30 CORRIDORS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OF COURSE GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NAM WHICH HAS DISPLAYED EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND USUALLY IS THE BEST MODEL TO USE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NW ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE DFW METROPLEX AROUND SUNRISE...WACO AREA BY NOON AND CLEARING THE SOUTHEAST ZONES LATE AFTERNOON. THE NAM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY REASONABLE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR KNIFING SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER OVER THE EAST WHERE THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE MORE SHALLOW AND MORE PRONE TO MODERATION FROM WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE GROUND. TEMPS WILL DROP 20 TO 30 DEGREES WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT SO THE NUMBERS LISTED ON FRIDAY/S HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS MISLEADING SINCE TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM APPRECIABLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GIVEN ALL OF THE RAIN IN THE AREA AND CONTINUING WEAK COLD ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS RAIN IS FALLING. BECAUSE THE AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS VERY WARM...THE RAIN WILL HELP TRANSPORT SOME OF THIS HEAT TO THE GROUND. RAINDROPS WILL BE TOO WARM TO FREEZE WHEN THEY REACH THE SURFACE...SO NO TRUE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER IF THERE IS A LONG ENOUGH BREAK IN THE RAIN...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN WATER MAY FREEZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES. THIS IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS. THE TIMING AND CHARACTER OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE AS THE CAUSE OF LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE CHANGES TO DIFFERENT FORCING MECHANISMS. TODAY AND TONIGHT/S RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND BE CAPABLE OF HIGH BUT VERY LOCALIZED 2+ INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST GRADUALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN THERE COULD BE A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SOLID BAND OF RAIN AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE WARM MOIST AIR IS LIFTED VIA FRONTOGENESIS. THIS BAND SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NW ZONES AND INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES BY SUNRISE BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL BE SO SHALLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES...ITS LIFTING POWER WILL BECOME MARGINALIZED. THEREFORE WE EXPECT JUST A LOT OF WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY AS PACIFIC HURRICANE SANDRA BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA. SANDRA WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE EAST OF THE BAJA REGION OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO AND THROUGH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE PACIFIC MOISTURE...THE REAL INFLUENCE AND CAUSE OF THE PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN OVER TEXAS WILL BE FROM STRONG DYNAMICS FOR LIFT ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS LIFT PEAKS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD PRODUCE A LARGE BAND OF MODERATE RAIN THAT STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BAND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE RAIN RATES WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH WITH THIS ROUND OF RAIN ACTIVITY...THE RAIN WILL BE PERSISTENT RESULTING IN MULTI-INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURATED SOILS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDRA CLEAR THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIMARILY DUE TO A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS VERY WET BY TUESDAY BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH THAT SYSTEM EVERY RUN. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND UKMET SHOW A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THURSDAY. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE REGION. AGAIN WILL KEEP THE POPS AT 10 PERCENT...BUT KEEP A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND WITH COOL AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS. TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 50 55 38 39 / 70 90 100 90 100 WACO, TX 75 65 69 39 41 / 60 60 80 70 80 PARIS, TX 71 62 68 39 43 / 40 80 90 90 100 DENTON, TX 70 46 49 36 38 / 80 90 100 90 100 MCKINNEY, TX 72 53 56 37 40 / 60 90 100 90 100 DALLAS, TX 74 56 59 38 40 / 60 80 90 90 90 TERRELL, TX 74 64 68 39 42 / 50 70 90 80 90 CORSICANA, TX 75 65 71 41 44 / 50 60 70 80 80 TEMPLE, TX 74 66 70 39 42 / 50 50 70 70 70 MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 44 47 33 35 / 80 90 100 90 100 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146. && $$ 82/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1110 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 .AVIATION... AREAWIDE CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO IFR GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...NEAR 10 KT OVERNIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. DECKS WILL MOST LIKELY STICK TO IFR...WITH TEMP IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR OR MAYBE AN HOUR OR THREE OF LIFR GOING INTO THE PRE-DAWN THANKSGIVING HOURS. LIGHT SHOWERS...MAYBE DRIZZLE...FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THANKSGIVING CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MID TO HIGH END MVFR...MAYBE BRIEF VFR...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR DECKS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER 2K FOOT SATURATION SHOULD RE-INTRODUCE LOW END MVFR/IFR LATE PERIOD CEILINGS. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE THURSDAY SEA FOG MAY INTRUDE ONSHORE THAT WOULD QUICKLY LOWER GLS VISBYS TO VLIFR. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/ DISCUSSION... AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE FORMING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SE TX THIS EVE. A FEW SHWRS ARE MOVING NW JUST EAST OF THE SE TX COASTAL WATERS. LATEST HRRR INDICATING THAT A FEW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING. THEREFORE...ADDED A 20 POP AND MENTION OF SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT SEEING ANY SEA FOG OFFSHORE THIS EVE. APPEARS DW PTS OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST NEED TO INCREASE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES TO GET SEA FOG FORMATION TO OCCUR. 33 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/ AVIATION... INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SATURATE THE LOWER ONE TO TWO THOUSAND FEET OVER THE COMING HOURS...MVFR DECKS WITH PERIODIC IFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND A CONTINUED SOUTHEAST BREEZE. STREAMER SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF METRO AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DISTURBANCES MOVING UP AHEAD OF A WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATER IN THE DAY...INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERY WEATHER OVER CLL/UTS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 76 68 75 51 / 10 50 40 70 70 HOUSTON (IAH) 66 76 69 77 63 / 20 30 30 50 40 GALVESTON (GLS) 67 75 69 75 67 / 20 20 20 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 CURRENT FORECAST PLAYING OUT WELL SO FAR...THOUGH STARTING TO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT OUR SNOW TOTALS MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE. 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE REALLY TRENDED PRECIPITATION EAST FASTER INTO THE EVENING...OWING TO MORE EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE BENEATH...SUCH THAT MANY SPOTS IN THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA MAY WELL END UP WITH ONLY A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION (ENDING NO LATER THAN 00Z). STARTING TO SEE MORE AND MORE "UNKNOWN PRECIP" OBSERVATIONS OUT INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL IA... SUGGESTING A TRANSITION TO SLEET IS UNDERWAY...IN LINE WITH EARLIER EXPECTATIONS. SHOULD SEE THAT TRANSITION LINE CONTINUE WORKING TO THE EAST... WITH MORE AND MORE SNOW ENTERING THE PICTURE AS WE LOSE THE INITIAL 2-3C WARM NOSE. STILL...JUST NOT SURE WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH PRECIP TO REALLY DELIVER OUR CURRENT 2-3" AS FORECAST...AND WILL BEGIN THE TREND OF LOWERING AMOUNTS TO SOME DEGREE. ALSO NOT SO SURE WHAT IMPACT THERE WILL BE GIVEN WARM ROAD TEMPS INTO THE LOW 40S (WEBCAMS IN THE CURRENT SNOW AREA SHOWING JUST WET ROADS SO FAR)...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER RATES EXPECTED PER RADAR TRENDS...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR US TO SLUSH UP THE ROADS. OVERALL...THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL ALONE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COUPLED WITH RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WAS SENDING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING MOST OF THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL IA/NORTHERN IL...WITHIN BAND OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH WESTERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA. OTHERWISE... FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE AREA...RANGING FROM MIDDLE/UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI. FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES VERY LITTLE TODAY WHILE A WEAK AREA AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO SOUTHEAST WI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. THERMAL PROFILE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CAUSE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY LATER THIS MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH THE DAY..TRANSITIONING TO WINTRY MIX/SNOW THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THIS PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...COULD SEE LOSS OF CLOUD ICE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AND LIGHT GLAZING. BOTTOM LINE...AS OF NOW...LOOKS LIKE 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CHARLES CITY IA TO WINONA MN AND NEILLSVILLE WI...WITH A DUSTING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. BASED ON THIS AND GLAZING POTENTIAL...WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE AND HAVE DAYSHIFT EVALUATE IF EXPANSION EASTWARD IS NEEDED BASED ON PRECIPITATION TYPE TRENDS/INTENSITY WITH 12Z MODEL RUN. DRY/COLDER WEATHER IS THEN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 COLDER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. SNOW/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...BUT NOT GOING TO NAIL DOWN AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FOCUSED FORCING. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN 30S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 IFR CONDITIONS ARE SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS... PERIODS OF RAIN MIXING WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN GENERAL...THE LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT A FASTER EXIT TO PRECIPITATION...SUGGESTING THAT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE MINOR...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A WINDOW OF SOME HEAVIER SNOW CLIPPING KRST BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z. THE WINTRY MIX WILL END AT KLSE BY 04Z...WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO MVFR LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING AS OUR SYSTEM DEPARTS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017- 029-033-034. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ032. MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088- 095. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ079- 086-087-094. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ009- 018-019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ008. && $$ UPDATE...LAWRENCE SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...LAWRENCE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .UPDATE... PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. BY MID AFTERNOON...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE VERY HIGH END OF WHAT IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MAY SEE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS MIX SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT GIVEN HOW WARM IT WILL BE INTO THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TODAY...WITH LOW CIGS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WILL PROBABLY SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY AS COLDER/DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO VFR BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. VSBYS WILL PROBABLY GO DOWN WITHIN HEAVIER RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH REDUCED VISIBILITY...AS THREAT FOR FOG LOOKS LIKE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT GIVEN HOW FAST SNOW MELTED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015/ SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. HAS BEEN HARD TO GET MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WITH PERIODIC WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND POCKETS OF OMEGA MOVING OUT AHEAD OF POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH. THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SEEN ON AREA RAP SOUNDINGS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH PERSISTENT WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AS REGION COMES UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET MAX THAT STRENGTHENS FROM 140 KNOTS TO 160 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE FASTER THAN NAM IN BRINGING A SURFACE WAVE UP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BISECTING THE STATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS PROVIDES THE FORCING FOR THE STEADIER...HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKING AT RAINFALL TOTALS REACHING BETWEEN 1 INCH AND 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ADD TO THE WATER FROM MELTING SNOW ALREADY MOVING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. STATEMENTS ARE OUT FOR RIVERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THAT ARE APPROACHING BANKFULL STAGE...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY GOING INTO FLOOD IF FORECASTED RAIN AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED. WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND SOME SLEET AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THIS MORNING INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S IN THE FAR SE...THEN STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. COLDER AIR WILL SLIP INTO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY... QUICKER IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS MEANS THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH RAIN AND SNOW. DRIER AIR WILL BE SETTLING IN WITH THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER. THE 06Z NAM CAME IN NEARLY DRY FOR THE 12- 18Z TIME PERIOD. ANY MIXED PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LOW- IMPACT. LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. A FAVORABLE NNE WIND WILL ALLOW FOR A LONG FETCH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI. LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 45F/7C NEAR SOUTHEAST WI... AND 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND -3C WITH EVEN COLDER 925MB TEMPS. DELTA-T VALUES LOOK A LITTLE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT NOT BY MUCH. AT A MINIMUM... THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE NAM IS SHOWING LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER MILD AND WET SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THAT UPPER LOW... BUT THE LATEST MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP TO THE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD CROSS WI TUE MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING AND ACTUALLY TEMPERATURE PROFILES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MILD AIR SURGING INTO SOUTHERN WI ON THE LEADING EDGE SO EXPECTING IT TO BEGIN AS RAIN. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI FROM W TO E MONDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO SNOW BUT THIS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE DRY SLOT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING... SO THE SNOW WILL BE WET AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. SOUTHERN WI SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT DEFORMATION AREA SNOW TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL FALL IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. RIDGING WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... SLOWER THAN EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE AREA HAS DELAYED MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE LATE MORNING...THEN CIGS ANBD VSBYS WILL TREND DOWN TO IFR AND POSSIBLY SOME LIFR AS THE HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL LOWER AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH AND STRENGTHENING WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTV TONIGHT. MARINE... WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW BUT WATCHING FOR WINDS SPEEDS TO INCREASE AFTER THEY FELL OFF OVERNIGHT AS EXPECTED. IF WINDS DO NOT INCREASE AS MUCH AS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO END THIS CURRENT ADVISORY WITHT HE MID-MORNING UPDATE. LOOKING FOR STEADIER RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME PERIODS OF DENSE FOG AS HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL TURN INTO A COLD FRONT BEHINDS THE DEPARTING LOW LATER TONIGHT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR THESE STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS THAT WILL PRODUCE GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE FOR A TIME FRIDAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643-644. && $$ UPDATE...DDV TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COUPLED WITH RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WAS SENDING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING MOST OF THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL IA/NORTHERN IL...WITHIN BAND OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH WESTERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA. OTHERWISE... FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE AREA...RANGING FROM MIDDLE/UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI. FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES VERY LITTLE TODAY WHILE A WEAK AREA AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO SOUTHEAST WI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. THERMAL PROFILE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CAUSE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY LATER THIS MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH THE DAY..TRANSITIONING TO WINTRY MIX/SNOW THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THIS PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...COULD SEE LOSS OF CLOUD ICE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AND LIGHT GLAZING. BOTTOM LINE...AS OF NOW...LOOKS LIKE 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CHARLES CITY IA TO WINONA MN AND NEILLSVILLE WI...WITH A DUSTING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. BASED ON THIS AND GLAZING POTENTIAL...WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE AND HAVE DAYSHIFT EVALUATE IF EXPANSION EASTWARD IS NEEDED BASED ON PRECIPITATION TYPE TRENDS/INTENSITY WITH 12Z MODEL RUN. DRY/COLDER WEATHER IS THEN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 COLDER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. SNOW/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...BUT NOT GOING TO NAIL DOWN AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FOCUSED FORCING. OTHERWISE..SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN 30S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 540 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 LIFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MINOR IMPROVEMENT LATER TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL TO THE EAST. PCPN TYPES ARE CHALLENGING AS A SIMPLE DEGREE CHANGE ALOFT AND/OR AT THE SFC WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN WHAT FALLS...AND HOW VSBYS REACT. AS IT LOOKS NOW...IT ALL STARTS AS RAIN...A FEW HOUR MIX OF SLEET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD TOWARD THE END OF THE PCPN EVENT WOULD RESULT IN FZDZ/RA FOR A COUPLE HOURS...IF THAT OCCURS. EXPECT UPDATES AS OBS AND RADAR TRENDS LEND SOME CLARITY TO HOW SOON/DELAYED SOME OF THE PCPN TYPES WILL BE. EXPECTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT KRST OF 1 TO 2...MOSTLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. AN INCH MORE WOULDN/T SURPRISE. KLSE SHOULD STAY UNDER AN INCH...DEALING WITH LIQUID LONGER. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-029-033-034. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ032. MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-095. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ079-086-087-094. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ009-018-019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ008. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
511 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. HAS BEEN HARD TO GET MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WITH PERIODIC WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND POCKETS OF OMEGA MOVING OUT AHEAD OF POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH. THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SEEN ON AREA RAP SOUNDINGS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH PERSISTENT WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AS REGION COMES UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET MAX THAT STRENGTHENS FROM 140 KNOTS TO 160 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE FASTER THAN NAM IN BRINGING A SURFACE WAVE UP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BISECTING THE STATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS PROVIDES THE FORCING FOR THE STEADIER...HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKING AT RAINFALL TOTALS REACHING BETWEEN 1 INCH AND 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ADD TO THE WATER FROM MELTING SNOW ALREADY MOVING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. STATEMENTS ARE OUT FOR RIVERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THAT ARE APPROACHING BANKFULL STAGE...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY GOING INTO FLOOD IF FORECASTED RAIN AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED. WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND SOME SLEET AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THIS MORNING INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S IN THE FAR SE...THEN STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. COLDER AIR WILL SLIP INTO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY... QUICKER IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS MEANS THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH RAIN AND SNOW. DRIER AIR WILL BE SETTLING IN WITH THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER. THE 06Z NAM CAME IN NEARLY DRY FOR THE 12- 18Z TIME PERIOD. ANY MIXED PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LOW- IMPACT. LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. A FAVORABLE NNE WIND WILL ALLOW FOR A LONG FETCH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI. LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 45F/7C NEAR SOUTHEAST WI... AND 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND -3C WITH EVEN COLDER 925MB TEMPS. DELTA-T VALUES LOOK A LITTLE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT NOT BY MUCH. AT A MINIMUM... THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE NAM IS SHOWING LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER MILD AND WET SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THAT UPPER LOW... BUT THE LATEST MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP TO THE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD CROSS WI TUE MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING AND ACTUALLY TEMPERATURE PROFILES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MILD AIR SURGING INTO SOUTHERN WI ON THE LEADING EDGE SO EXPECTING IT TO BEGIN AS RAIN. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI FROM W TO E MONDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO SNOW BUT THIS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE DRY SLOT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING... SO THE SNOW WILL BE WET AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. SOUTHERN WI SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT DEFORMATION AREA SNOW TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL FALL IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. RIDGING WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... SLOWER THAN EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE AREA HAS DELAYED MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE LATE MORNING...THEN CIGS ANBD VSBYS WILL TREND DOWN TO IFR AND POSSIBLY SOME LIFR AS THE HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL LOWER AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH AND STRENGTHENING WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTV TONIGHT. .MARINE... WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW BUT WATCHING FOR WINDS SPEEDS TO INCREASE AFTER THEY FELL OFF OVERNIGHT AS EXPECTED. IF WINDS DO NOT INCREASE AS MUCH AS FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO END THIS CURRENT ADVISORY WITHT HE MID-MORNING UPDATE. LOOKING FOR STEADIER RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME PERIODS OF DENSE FOG AS HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL TURN INTO A COLD FRONT BEHINDS THE DEPARTING LOW LATER TONIGHT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR THESE STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS THAT WILL PRODUCE GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE FOR A TIME FRIDAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643-644. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COUPLED WITH RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WAS SENDING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING MOST OF THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL IA/NORTHERN IL...WITHIN BAND OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH WESTERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA. OTHERWISE... FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE AREA...RANGING FROM MIDDLE/UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI. FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES VERY LITTLE TODAY WHILE A WEAK AREA AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO SOUTHEAST WI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. THERMAL PROFILE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CAUSE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY LATER THIS MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH THE DAY..TRANSITIONING TO WINTRY MIX/SNOW THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THIS PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...COULD SEE LOSS OF CLOUD ICE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AND LIGHT GLAZING. BOTTOM LINE...AS OF NOW...LOOKS LIKE 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CHARLES CITY IA TO WINONA MN AND NEILLSVILLE WI...WITH A DUSTING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. BASED ON THIS AND GLAZING POTENTIAL...WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE AND HAVE DAYSHIFT EVALUATE IF EXPANSION EASTWARD IS NEEDED BASED ON PRECIPITATION TYPE TRENDS/INTENSITY WITH 12Z MODEL RUN. DRY/COLDER WEATHER IS THEN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 COLDER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. SNOW/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...BUT NOT GOING TO NAIL DOWN AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FOCUSED FORCING. OTHERWISE..SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN 30S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS HAVE FINALLY MOVED INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL IA AS OF 26.0530Z... ADJUSTED PRECIP TO REACH KLSE BY 26.09Z AND KRST BY 26.14Z... ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIP NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY INTO THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. THINK THERE WILL BE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF A RA/PL/POSSIBLY FZRA MIX AT KRST BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...BUT CHANGE OVER SHOULD BE LATER AND QUICKER AT KLSE WITH LESS OF A MIX. LIGHT SNOW WILL END AT KRST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SNOW AT KLSE THROUGH 27.06Z. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORE HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KLSE...NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 10 TO 16 KTS WILL BE THE RULE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-029-033-034. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ032. MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-095. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ079-086-087-094. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ009-018-019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ008. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1142 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA...TROUGHING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND BROAD RIDGING FROM TEXAS INTO NEW ENGLAND. REAL ONLY SHORTWAVE OF NOTE WAS IN NORTHWEST KS. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW UNDERNEATH THE BROAD RIDGING HELPING TO PROPEL WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. 925MB TEMP AT MPX JUMPED FROM 2C AT 00Z TO 6C AT 12Z. 50F DEWPOINTS WERE APPROACHING THE IA/MO BORDER...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LAYED UP FROM DLH TO LINCOLN NE. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS BACK SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ALONE HAS PUSHED READINGS WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW 50S FOR LOCATIONS THAT SAW SOME PEAKS OF SUN. THE RECENT WARMTH HAS REALLY DENTED THE SNOWPACK TOO...WITH DEPTHS MOSTLY UNDER 5 INCHES PER 12Z COOP REPORTS...WHICH HAS GREATLY REDUCED ITS IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED YET...AS THE CLOUD LAYER REMAINS SOMEWHAT SHALLOW AND RELATIVELY SPEAKING HIGH BASED / ALL EITHER HIGH MVFR OR VFR IN AVIATION TERMS/. MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES SLIGHTLY EAST...WE SEE THE FRONT OFF TO OUR WEST MOVE ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THU. THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO KEEP PUSHING WARM/MOIST AIR INTO US...NOTED IN PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING FROM 0.5-0.75 INCHES AT 18Z TODAY TO 0.75-1 INCH AT 12Z THU. READINGS WILL LIKELY CLIMB THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TOO...BEFORE FALLING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS ANTICIPATING THANKSGIVING DAY CALENDAR HIGH TO OCCUR TONIGHT. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALSO OCCURS FROM NEAR THE SURFACE TO 6000 FT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT TAKING PLACE IN THIS LAYER. THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE DRIZZLE. IN FACT...LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO SHOULD SEE FLAT OUT HIGHER QPF / LIGHT RAIN TAKE PLACE. THIS IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT THE SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE DRIZZLE AND INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS EVIDENT IN ALL MODEL QPF PROGS...WITH VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS TONIGHT...GIVEN TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING AND PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ABOVE THE LOWER CLOUDS TO PRECLUDE ANY SEEDER-FEEDER TO INTRODUCE SNOW CRYSTALS. THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY GETS MORE INTERESTING. THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS OFF TO OUR WEST ATTEMPT TO PHASE...WHICH IN TURN INTENSIFIES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND THE FRONT THAT MOSTLY PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFIES THE UPPER JET AND THROUGH THERMAL WIND RELATIONSHIP...INTENSIFIES THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST...THE NET RESULT IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...LUCKILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN BUT DEFINITELY NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS...LOOKS TO FALL IN CLAYTON/GRANT COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION EXISTS OF STRONGEST AND DEEPEST FRONTOGENESIS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO EVEN SEE SOME LIGHTNING NEAR DUBUQUE WITH UP TO 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED. FARTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPER SATURATION FROM THE SURFACE TO THE TROPOPAUSE TO PREVENT LOSS OF SNOW/ICE CRYSTALS...SHOULD HELP GRADUALLY TURN PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET THEN SNOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FROM MCW TO RST AND EAU. SINCE THE FORCING IS WEAKER COMPARED TO CLAYTON/GRANT COUNTIES...PRECIPITATION IS LIGHTER...BUT STILL LIKELY ENOUGH TO CAUSE TRAVELING ISSUES. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 ON THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FINALLY BEGINS TO MAKE SOME BETTER PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH ALL OF THE FORCING...PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE THAT WAS OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO THE EAST. APPEARS IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FULLY EXIT OUR AREA. UNTIL THEN...HOWEVER...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -5C TO 5C AT 00Z FRI TO -8 TO -5C BY 12Z FRI...COMBINED WITH A DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN SHOULD HELP TRANSITION PRECIPITATION OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING. NOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WHEN THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN...THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS WELL AS NOTED IN THE CURRENT AND PAST RUNS OF THE GFS. APPEARS ANY SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STILL ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT TO WARRANT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHWEST. SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE AMOUNT FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF APPEARS TOO LITTLE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. WEATHER GOES INTO QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL LAND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE...AND THE AREA GOES UNDER A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY LATE SATURDAY. 925MB TEMPS HOLD BETWEEN -5 AND -8C FOR FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE WARMING TO 0 TO -2C SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE READINGS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MS RIVER COULD STAY JUST BELOW 30 ON FRIDAY. MUCH OF NEXT WEEK PER THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WHICH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION MON THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THEN THE MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD SUCH THAT ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY...THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. CERTAINLY SOME TIMING AND OTHER SYNOPTIC DIFFERENCES THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ONLY IN THE 20- 40 RANGE AT THIS TIME. COOL AIR UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WHICH RESULTS IN SNOW AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. DEFINITELY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO LOOK AT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS HAVE FINALLY MOVED INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL IA AS OF 26.0530Z... ADJUSTED PRECIP TO REACH KLSE BY 26.09Z AND KRST BY 26.14Z... ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIP NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY INTO THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. THINK THERE WILL BE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF A RA/PL/POSSIBLY FZRA MIX AT KRST BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...BUT CHANGE OVER SHOULD BE LATER AND QUICKER AT KLSE WITH LESS OF A MIX. LIGHT SNOW WILL END AT KRST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SNOW AT KLSE THROUGH 27.06Z. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORE HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KLSE...NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 10 TO 16 KTS WILL BE THE RULE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ017-029-033-034. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ032. MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ088-095. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ079-086-087-094. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ009-018-019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ008. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1034 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 ...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT... ...COLD BUT LESS SNOW TOMORROW... THE MODELS ARE NOT DOING VERY WELL TODAY IN CAPTURING BL PROCESSES AND THE CLOUD/PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA. RELATIVELY SHALLOW COLD AIR AND SERLY FLOW ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY HAS LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW THROUGH TODAY...ALBEIT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY PRECIP-FREE. MEANWHILE...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...DESPITE DEEP SATURATED LAYERS PROGGED BY THE MODELS. SO...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC AND PERSISTENCE WILL RULE FOR NOW. TONIGHT...ANOTHER WAVE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NW AZ/SW UT EJECTS TO THE NE INTO WY BY SAT AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE THIS EVENING...SO BEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT. MOST ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...UNDER AN INCH. THE SAN JUANS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STEADY LIGHT TO MDT SNOW SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. ANOTHER AREA THAT MIGHT SEE SOME RESPECTABLE ACCUMS IS THE ARKANSAS RIVER CANYON ALONG WITH FREMONT COUNTY....THE NRN SANGRES...AND THE WET MTN VALLEY. HIGH RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR ARE SHOWING THE BEST EVENING POTENTIAL IN THAT REGION...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL PRETTY UNCERTAIN WHERE EXACTLY THE HIGHEST ACCUMS WILL BE...OR WHETHER THIS HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPS AT ALL...SO WILL KEEP HEADLINE-FREE FOR NOW. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. IN GENERAL...SUSPECT THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH SAT MORNING SO HAVE CUT BACK QPF ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ADDED SOME AREAS OF PC FZDZ OVER THE ERN PLAINS INTO SAT MORNING...AS MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT FZDZ IN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD...WITH TEMPS ON THE PLAINS STRUGGLING TO HIT 30 DEGREES. WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE THE MID ELEVATION AREAS CLOSE TO THE WETS AND SRN SANGRES...DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR IS. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD ALSO GET ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN FOR THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF OVER SE CO...WHILE THE NAM IS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS. WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL TO OUR NW THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MODEST FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR PRECIP...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP DO NOT LOOK VERY HIGH...AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR SOME CLEARING BY SAT AFTERNOON. ROSE .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 SAT NIGHT THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE EXTREME SWRN CORNER OF WY. FORECAST MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...BUT DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FAR SERN PLAINS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FZDZ AS WELL. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE TEENS. ON SUN THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL WY. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW AROUND THE SRN SIDE OF THE LOW...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN CO...ENHANCING SNOW CHANCES ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MAYBE INTO THE TELLER COUNTY AND PIKES PEAK AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND MTNS THERE WL CONTINUE TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME PATCHY FZDZ STILL POSSIBLE IN AREAS NEAR THE KS BORDER. HIGH TEMPS ON SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. SUN EVENING THE UPR TROF AND DISTURBANCE MOVE ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...LIKELY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE EASTERN MTNS AND PLAINS. AT THIS TIME ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. BY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND WITH THE PCPN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER ENDING THE PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST THAN THE GFS. ON MON THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ERN HALF OF NE...LEAVING W TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. MSTR IN THE NW FLOW WL LIKELY KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS ON MON. HIGHS ON MON MAY GET INTO THE LOWER 40S OVR SOME OF THE SERN PLAINS...BUT THE REST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 30S. TUE THROUGH FRI DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS BY FRI BEING IN THE 50S OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND IN THE 40S OVER THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1027 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 FOR KCOS AND KPUB... IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO LATE MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR AND UPSLOPE FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AND EARLY TOMORROW EVENING...AND THEN LOW CIGS MAY RETURN BY LATE EVENING. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT AND NO SIGNIF ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOR KALS... GUSTY S WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EALY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS LOW CIGS DEVELOP OVER THE VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ067-068. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROSE LONG TERM...28 AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS THE DELMARVA AS NOTED BY SEVERAL REGION OBS AND THE NARRE. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE 40`S TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT BUT ENOUGH LIFT LOOKS PRESENT FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS AND NW NJ IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HRRR AND RAP NOT RULING OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THIS MORNING. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL TIMING, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS MODELED 24 HOURS AGO. WITH THE FRONT NOT ARRIVING TILL THE AFTERNOON, THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NOONTIME ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ, ONLY NEAR 50 THEN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40`S. MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WITH SOME WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR THE PHILADELPHIA AREA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60`S, LIKELY A HAIR ABOVE MET/MAV GUIDANCE AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TAKING WITH IT THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL TO THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. HOWEVER, QPF THROUGHOUT THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PERIODS LOOKS RATHER MEAGER UNDER 1/4TH OF AN INCH ON THE OPERATIONAL MODELS, THE SREF AND WPC GUIDANCE. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FUNNEL IN BEHIND THE FRONT, PERHAPS A HAIR SLOWER/WARMER THAN INDICATED WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO SLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RIGHT NOW ANY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEPART BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND WEST. EVEN IF THAT WERE NOT THE CASE, TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL BE SLOWER AT 925 AND 850 MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FREEZING DRIZZLE AND NOT SNOW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE BEST LIFT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF US INTO SRN VA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM ERN CANADA. ACCORDINGLY, ANY LEFTOVER ANAFRONTAL RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AND LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE ON SUNDAY. NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRAW COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN NE PA/NW NJ AND LM50S ELSEWHERE, WHICH IS ACTUALLY RIGHT AT CLIMO FOR THE END OF NOV. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE HIGH BUILDS, ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY IN SRN DE AND ADJACENT EASTERN MD. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THESE FAR SRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRY FOR MONDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE AN OVERRUNNING SETUP ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP RETURNING TO THE AREA EITHER LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD US. IF THE PRECIP COMES IN BEFORE SUNRISE, THEN MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY AT THE ONSET IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF I- 80 (WHERE THE RETREATING COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS TYPICALLY LAST TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE OROGRAPHY). WILL KEEP THIS THREAT OUT OF THE HWO THIS FAR OUT SINCE IT SEEMS LIKE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO BUT STILL BEARS WATCHING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THRU THE AREA, WHICH IS WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS AND GEM AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE MIDWEEK COLD FROPA. ASIDE FROM MAYBE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY IN THE POCONOS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT (WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THRU), EXPECT A DRY ENDING TO THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOCALIZED FOG IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, LOCAL TOOLS INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCE WILL BE AWAY FROM MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMIV. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KMIV UNTIL 12Z OR SO. CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO FAVOR VFR ON SATURDAY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING GRADUALLY. WE HAVE INDICATED A TRANSITION TO MVFR CEILINGS AT KRDG AND KABE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS TIMING IS A FEW HOURS LATER FOR KPHL, KTTN AND TAF SITES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE FROM MID EVENING ON TONIGHT, MORE UNCERTAINTY ATTM TO INCLUDE WITH THE 06Z TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THEN MORE NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS MAY YIELD MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN SRN TERMINALS (ILG-MIV-ACY) INITIALLY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS TO VFR ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT. SUNDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY VFR W/ CLEARING SKIES. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MARINE STRATUS MOVING INLAND. MIV AND ACY WOULD BE MOST VULNERABLE OF THE TAF SITES TO MVFR CIGS IN THIS SETUP. RAIN MAY ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. LIGHT ELY WINDS BECOME SELY LATE. WEDNESDAY...ATTM, THE RAIN MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE MORNING. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS INDICATING IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER SLOWER SOLUTIONS DELAY THE IMPROVEMENT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL OCCUR WITH A COLD FROPA. THE FROPA WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM SLY TO WLY. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WE REMAIN AROUND FIVE FEET THROUGH TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND FOUR FEET TONIGHT. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH 23Z FOR THE HIGH SEAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SEAS MAY BE SLIGHTLY DELAYED FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET TONIGHT WITH THE PERSISTENT ESE SWELL. FOR NOW THOUGH, BOTH WAVEWATCH AND NWPS HAVE SEAS FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET BY THIS EVENING, SO WILL NOT EXTEND THE SCA. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING NELY WINDS 15-20 KT WILL ACCOMPANY A PRESSURE SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH OF A GUST POTENTIAL IN THIS SETUP SO GETTING 25 KT GUSTS ARE QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER, SEAS IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 4-7 FT, SO A SCA WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEDNESDAY...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT, THEN SHARPLY TURN WLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED. && .EQUIPMENT... KDIX RADAR IS CURRENTLY INOPERABLE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED ABOUT THE OUTAGE. THE RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLEIN NEAR TERM...GAINES SHORT TERM...GAINES LONG TERM...KLEIN AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN EQUIPMENT...KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1217 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY, STALLING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CIRRUS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT IN THE WEST SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SOME LOCALIZED FOG IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR THE DEW POINT READINGS IN SPOTS. HOWEVER, THE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S IN MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD OFF TILL AFTER DAYBREAK AS DEPICTED ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE REMOVED WITH THE 12:30 AM UPDATE THROUGH SUNRISE. ALSO, TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED IN A FEW SPOTS BASED ON LOCALIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE SLOWER FCST TIMING NOW ALLOWS FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S GENLY SOUTH OF PHL...BUT COOLER IN THE 50S FARTHER NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS LOW- LVL CAA. AGAIN...THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THAN FCST. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW CHC POPS SPREADING SWD WITH FRONT ON SATURDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATE AT BEST WEAK FORCING FOR UVV SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE PHL AREA DURING THE AFTN AND REACH SRN NJ/NRN DE BY EVENING. && .LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP A BIT AND MAY NOT DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARDS, THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A TON OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE FRONT WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOUDIER AS A RESULT OF REMAINING CLOSER TO THE STALLING BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS AS THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TAPS INTO SOME OF THE COLDER AIR SEEPING DOWN FROM CANADA. EXPECT A MUCH COLDER NIGHT OVER THE REGION AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RESPOND TO THE AIR ENTERING THE AREA. ONE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WE RETAIN, WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN A SMIDGEN HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE SHOWS. OVERALL, EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT, AT THIS POINT A STALLING BOUNDARY, JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY CONTINUE TO SEE OFF AND ON SHOWERS AS A RESULT OF THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT FOR THE MOST PART, WE SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. BY TUESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES, LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG CUT OFF LOW IN THE MID LEVELS. AS THIS SYSTEM START TO PUSH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THE STALLED BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING SHOWERS TO OUR AREA. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EASTWARD PUSH, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY, WE SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING OCCUR AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 60S, AS WE START TO TAP INTO THE WARM MOIST AIR EMANATING FROM THE GULF REGION. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND ONCE IT MOVES THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT WITH A RETURN TO SOME COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS AND EVENTUALLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING OVERHEAD. LOCALIZED FOG IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE FOG SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. WE HAVE INDICATED A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT KMIV BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR VFR ON SATURDAY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING GRADUALLY. WE HAVE INDICATED A TRANSITION TO MVFR CEILINGS AT KRDG AND KABE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS TIMING IS A FEW HOURS LATER FOR KPHL, KTTN AND TAF SITES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EVEN POSSIBILE FROM MID EVENING ON, LOW PROBABILITY ATTM TO INCLUDE WITH 06Z TAFS. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SPOTS. THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY MORNING, VEERING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THROUGHOUT MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS BUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY TOWARDS THE COAST. TUESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS, WITH IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE, IN WIDESPREAD RAIN. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SCA FOR SEAS IS IN PLACE FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 600 PM SATURDAY. SEAS ARE DUE MAINLY TO A SELY SWELL WHICH IS FCST BY WAVE WATCH MODEL TO INCREASE SMWHT FURTHER. SO SCA WILL BE LEFT AS IS ALTHO IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE MARGINAL FOR OUR NORTHERN WATERS. THE ENDING TIME LATE SAT AFTN STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS MAY BE NEAR 5 FEET AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AS WE SEE AN INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP. SEAS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE STARTING MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAY TAKE LONGER TO DROP, REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TAKING PLACE. WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH AND THEN TO THE WEST WITH BOTH SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. && .CLIMATE... A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS RECORDED AT ALLENTOWN YESTERDAY AND THE RECORD WAS TIED AT READING. RECORD EVENT REPORTS WERE ISSUED FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. ALLENTOWN PA - 65 - YESTERDAY 62 - PREVIOUS RECORD SET IN 1959 AND 1988 READING PA - 65 - YESTERDAY 65 - PREVIOUS RECORD SET IN 2011 && .EQUIPMENT... KDIX RADAR IS CURRENTLY INOPERABLE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED ABOUT THE OUT AGE. THE RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEOLA NEAR TERM...GAINES/IOVINO SHORT TERM...AMC LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO/MEOLA MARINE...AMC/MEOLA CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...GAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
146 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 .UPDATE... 745 PM CST GOING FORECAST TONIGHT LARGELY IN DECENT SHAPE. MAIN TWEAK WAS TO LOWER HOURLY POPS IN SOUTHERN CWA AS OBS HAVE ONLY BEEN SHOWING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS SO ITS PROBABLE NOT ALL AREAS ARE SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP. KEPT DRIZZLE WORDING GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA WITH LOW DEWPOINT SPREADS AND CONTINUED BROAD LIFT FROM UPPER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SOLID STRATUS DECK STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS CENTRAL WI...THEREFORE LOCKED IN FULL CLOUD COVER UNTIL ABOUT MID DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS BY DAYBREAK. TWEAKED A FEW LOCATIONS UP A DEGREE OR SO CONSIDERING CLOUDS AND WINDS NOT GOING CALM. WILL BE ABLE TO LET THE LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY GO AS PLANNED AT 9PM...WITH WAVES AT SOUTH BUOY DOWN TO 8 FEET AS OF THIS WRITING AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT MARINE OB SITES. ONLY OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS LAKE EFFECT PLUME INTO FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN ON LAST SEVERAL HOURLY RUNS OF HI-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS HRRR AND HRRR-X. WITH UNIMPRESSIVE LAKE TO 850 MB DELTA T/S OF 9 OR 10 CELSIUS YIELDING LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND NOT MUCH INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT OF LAKE PLUME. KEPT "SILENT" POPS AROUND 10% IN GRIDS. RC && .SHORT TERM... 212 PM CST THROUGH SUNDAY... LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST TOGETHER WITH AN AXIS OF PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FGEN ALIGNED ALONG A COLD FRONT. FARTHER NORTH...A RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE IS STARTING TO WORK INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS EVIDENCED BY FALLING DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. AFTER THE AREA DRIES OUT THIS EVENING...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND NEAR SEASONALLY NORMAL HIGHS UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND THE CORRESPONDING HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. LENNING && .LONG TERM... 212 PM CST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT LOCALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE IN LIFTING THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. IT IS A LITTLE HARD TO BUY INTO SUCH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM A CONSIDERABLY WRAPPED UP FEATURE...BUT THE KICK APPEARS TO COME FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS APPARENT ON THE WV IMAGERY AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE IT ANALYZED WELL...SO WILL PLAN TO FOLLOW THE IDEAS OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOST OF MONDAY...OR AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF AHEAD OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH STAYS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHIELD LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING THIS WOULD ALL APPEAR TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL CLIMB OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTERS BOTH LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WRAP COLDER AIR AROUND TO THEIR SOUTH. LOW LEVELS DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVES AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE AREA AGAIN SHOULD HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER...AND CLEARING SKIES WOULD APPEAR TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS. LENNING && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * BRIEF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 08Z. * NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH NOON. * MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO AFTERNOON. //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SLOW TO DRY OUT TODAY. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES AIDED BY A STOUT INVERSION AND UNSTABLE AIR AND ADDED MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT CAUSING PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS IS TRANSLATING EAST SO DPA AND ORD...AND POSSIBLY MDW AND GYY...MAY EXPERIENCE THIS PRIOR TO 08Z. THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY START TO ERODE LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON...SO BROKEN WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RFD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE EDGE OF THE MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD LOSE GUSTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP DOWN FURTHER IN SPEED THIS EVENING. //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * HIGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND TEMPORARY AND DONE BY 08Z. * LOW-MEDIUM IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS SCATTERING. * HIGH IN ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODIC -SHRA. CHANCE OF -DZ/FG. MVFR CIGS LIKELY WITH IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. THURSDAY...VFR. MTF/IZZI && .MARINE... 144 AM CST A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE THE WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN SO GUSTY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE SINCE YESTERDAY. WAVES WILL BE EVEN SLOWER TO FALL...BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 5 FT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE BY SUNSET. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY EVENING TO NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STIFF EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LAKE BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO OCCLUDE DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE SYSTEM AND OVER THE LAKE. THE SYSTEM DEPTH INDICATED BY COMPUTER MODELS AT THIS POINT DOES NOT NECESSARILY SCREAM GALES...BUT THE PATTERN IS CONCEPTUALLY ONE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME TEMPORARY GALES OR NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS DURING THAT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. MTF && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1149 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 Cold front finally cleared entire forecast area earlier this evening. The post frontal precipitation has also been on the wane with the departure of the front and much of the associated forcing. Based on latest radar trends and mesoscale model runs, expect that most of the measurable precipitation has ended, except for areas along/south of the I-70 corridor. Still, a deep moist layer is still conducive for the patchy post frontal drizzle that is being reported. Far northern portions of the forecast area are approaching 32 degrees, and although these temperatures shouldn`t fall much further overnight, there is some threat of slick roads due to the currently wet pavement and possibly some patchy freezing drizzle. Aside from updates to PoP trends, only a few minor tweaks are needed to the nighttime forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 The cold front draped across the eastern half of the country has almost made it all the way through ILXs area this afternoon, and is currently in the vicinity of I-70. Plenty of precipitation in the region moving up from the SW. Precip is expected to continue, particularly in the south and east through the overnight. The big issues are the northern extent of the measurable precip, and the timing of the cold air moving in behind it. HRRR and NAM both trying to pull the precip further south after 06z, which should remove the threat for FZRA later tonight. The forward progression of the cooler air is also working against the rainfall as it is much drier than the airmass over Central Illinois. The dry air is slowly eroding the llvl RH and some of the weaker echos in the NW are only seeing low clouds, and not reporting precip. Even in the NW where the rain chances may recede after midnight, the low clouds and potential for a misty night remain. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday) ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 Our area should be in between shortwaves on Saturday with a definite trend south with the axis of heavier QPF from previous forecasts. With our area in between shortwave trofs on Saturday, it appears the better chances for rain will be across southeast Illinois, closer to the frontal boundary and any associated weak surface wave that will track northeast along it. Forecast soundings not very supporting of any precip further north during the day so we will see a gradual shift south with the higher POPs as the boundary gets a nudge to the south by afternoon. Forecast soundings showing some drier air (900- 800 mb)advecting south into the region during the day as well but expect quite a bit of cloudiness to hang around during the day with the lingering POPs mainly across the southern third of the forecast area by afternoon. Low POPs will remain Saturday night into Sunday with the GFS showing a weak lead shortwave coming out of the large upper low over the southwest U.S. Sunday afternoon and evening with the main push from the low to our southwest not getting into central Illinois until Monday. That is when we will see likely POPs return across the entire area with forecast soundings continuing to support rain during the day, and then as we see cold advection settle in around the backside of the upper low Monday night, we will see a mix or changeover to light snow before the main forcing/lift ejects off to the northeast on Tuesday. The main 500 mb trof axis will not shift off to our east until Wednesday, so we will continue with at least some low chance POPs Tuesday and Tuesday night associated with the cold pool aloft. Finally, by Wednesday, the system should be far enough to our northeast to have a dry forecast for the entire area along with seasonably cool temperatures. As the large upper low continues to drift away from the Midwest late Wednesday into the end of the work week, upper level heights will start to increase across the region, with more of a semi-zonal flow pattern depicted on medium range models. This should result in a rather quiet weather scene over the region with near normal temperatures and little if any rain or snow. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 IFR and/or low-end MVFR conditions and spotty showers/drizzle will persist for the balance of the night. Drier air filtering into the area on northerly winds will help to lift CIGS on Saturday, with an improvement of VFR possible by Saturday evening. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BAK SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1147 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 .UPDATE... 745 PM CST GOING FORECAST TONIGHT LARGELY IN DECENT SHAPE. MAIN TWEAK WAS TO LOWER HOURLY POPS IN SOUTHERN CWA AS OBS HAVE ONLY BEEN SHOWING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS SO ITS PROBABLE NOT ALL AREAS ARE SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP. KEPT DRIZZLE WORDING GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA WITH LOW DEWPOINT SPREADS AND CONTINUED BROAD LIFT FROM UPPER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SOLID STRATUS DECK STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS CENTRAL WI...THEREFORE LOCKED IN FULL CLOUD COVER UNTIL ABOUT MID DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS BY DAYBREAK. TWEAKED A FEW LOCATIONS UP A DEGREE OR SO CONSIDERING CLOUDS AND WINDS NOT GOING CALM. WILL BE ABLE TO LET THE LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY GO AS PLANNED AT 9PM...WITH WAVES AT SOUTH BUOY DOWN TO 8 FEET AS OF THIS WRITING AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT MARINE OB SITES. ONLY OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS LAKE EFFECT PLUME INTO FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN ON LAST SEVERAL HOURLY RUNS OF HI-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS HRRR AND HRRR-X. WITH UNIMPRESSIVE LAKE TO 850 MB DELTA T/S OF 9 OR 10 CELSIUS YIELDING LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND NOT MUCH INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT OF LAKE PLUME. KEPT "SILENT" POPS AROUND 10% IN GRIDS. RC && .SHORT TERM... 212 PM CST THROUGH SUNDAY... LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST TOGETHER WITH AN AXIS OF PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FGEN ALIGNED ALONG A COLD FRONT. FARTHER NORTH...A RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE IS STARTING TO WORK INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS EVIDENCED BY FALLING DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. AFTER THE AREA DRIES OUT THIS EVENING...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND NEAR SEASONALLY NORMAL HIGHS UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND THE CORRESPONDING HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. LENNING && .LONG TERM... 212 PM CST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT LOCALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE IN LIFTING THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. IT IS A LITTLE HARD TO BUY INTO SUCH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM A CONSIDERABLY WRAPPED UP FEATURE...BUT THE KICK APPEARS TO COME FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS APPARENT ON THE WV IMAGERY AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE IT ANALYZED WELL...SO WILL PLAN TO FOLLOW THE IDEAS OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOST OF MONDAY...OR AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF AHEAD OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH STAYS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHIELD LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING THIS WOULD ALL APPEAR TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL CLIMB OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTERS BOTH LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WRAP COLDER AIR AROUND TO THEIR SOUTH. LOW LEVELS DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVES AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE AREA AGAIN SHOULD HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER...AND CLEARING SKIES WOULD APPEAR TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS. LENNING && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * BRIEF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 08Z. * NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH NOON. * MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO AFTERNOON. //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SLOW TO DRY OUT TODAY. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES AIDED BY A STOUT INVERSION AND UNSTABLE AIR AND ADDED MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT CAUSING PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS IS TRANSLATING EAST SO DPA AND ORD...AND POSSIBLY MDW AND GYY...MAY EXPERIENCE THIS PRIOR TO 08Z. THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY START TO ERODE LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON...SO BROKEN WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RFD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE EDGE OF THE MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD LOSE GUSTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP DOWN FURTHER IN SPEED THIS EVENING. //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * HIGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND TEMPORARY AND DONE BY 08Z. * LOW-MEDIUM IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS SCATTERING. * HIGH IN ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODIC -SHRA. CHANCE OF -DZ/FG. MVFR CIGS LIKELY WITH IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. THURSDAY...VFR. MTF/IZZI && .MARINE... 212 PM CST BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LAKES FROM THE WEST...AND A COLD FRONT DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...STRONG NORTH WINDS OVER THE LAKE TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY...WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WILL BACK WESTERLY WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL VEER NORTHEASTERLY. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SLIDES NORTH OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND TURNS ALL WINDS TO THE EAST. THE EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF APPROACHES THE AREA. BY TUESDAY THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIFTING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE LAKE REMAINING EAST OF THIS LOW...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND ALL THE WAY AROUND TO NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY. LENNING && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
428 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY TAPER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON... THOUGH ANY BREAKS MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 40...AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 RATHER BENIGN NEAR/SHORT TERM PD AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ENEWD THROUGH OHIO VALLEY. FINAL VESTIGES OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE /ESPECIALLY WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR UVM OWING TO LOCAL PRESSURE TENDENCY/DERIVATIVE ON I285-290K SURFACES EJECTING FROM ECNTL ILLINOIS TO ALONG AND S OF ROUTE 24 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AM AND WILL ACCOUNT WITH SEPARATE PREFIRST PD. WHILE SOME RAPL MIX ACROSS NERN IL EARLIER THIS EVENING AND SOME UP AWOS ACRS SRN LWR MI...HAVE MAINTAINED ALL LIQUID AS MAGNITUDE AND DEPTH OF MAX TW ALOFT GREATER ACRS CWA PER RAP ANALYSIS...CERTAINLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE SNOW MIX PER RELATIVE WARM CLOUD TOP TEMPS SUGGESTING LACK OF/OR AT LEAST QUESTIONABLE ICE CRYSTAL NUCLEATION PER AMDAR AND RAP SOUNDINGS. ALL BUT FAR SERN THIRD OF CWA DIFFICULT TO MEASURE ESPECIALLY BYND 15 UTC AS FEATURE WEAKENS/PUSHES EWD WHILE FOCUS SAGS SEWD AS INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINS WITH DVM ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGE STRENGTHENING/BUILDING EWD THROUGH CNTL LWR MI THROUGH THE DAY. HELD LINE ON TEMPS GIVEN ANTICIPATED LAGGARD CLOUD COVER WITH AFTERNOON PARTIAL CLEARING RELEGATED PRIMARILY NORTH OF ROUTE 24. POOR INSOLATION OPPORTUNITY AMID PERSISTENT 925MB CAA/LOW SOLAR ZENITH ANGLE/SHORT DURATION OF SHORTWAVE FLUX. SLIGHT LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS FOR SUN AM AS WELL...INLINE WITH GUIDANCE...ACCENTUATING N/S GRADIENT AS NORTHERN CWA MOST LIKELY AND MORE READILY TO DECOUPLE PER PROXIMAL SOUTHERN RIDGE PERIPHERY...AS WELL AS REMOVE MARINE LAYER BLEED IN AS OFFSHORE/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FAVORS A COLD KBEH. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 SUNDAY STILL LOOKING RELATIVELY PLEASANT...THOUGH SEASONABLY COOL. SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL RIDGE/AVA WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION AND SUPPORT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE/HIGH PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 1C SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW THEN PINWHEELS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH WITH A DECENT SWATH OF 290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH ARRIVAL OF MIDLEVEL CVA BULLSEYE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT TIMING/TRACK OF EJECTING LOW BUT KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/MODERATE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT...A FEW TENTHS AT BEST GIVEN RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT OF MEDIOCRE FORCING AND MOISTURE. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LIFTING CYCLONE TO BRING SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE HELP OF WARM LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TIMING/TRACK ISSUES LEAD TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARM SURFACE TEMPS BUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES COULD SEE A QUICK DUSTING WEDNESDAY MORNING IF BETTER PRECIP RATES ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE. KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY BUT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SCT SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IF SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TO END THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 CONTINUED ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER SUBCLOUD AIR INTO FAR NRN IN SHOULD LIFT CIGS AT KSBN TO ABOVE FUELING/ALTERNATE CRITERIA WITHIN ABOUT 3 HRS. THEREAFTER...NO SIG AVIATION WX CONCERNS WITH ASSURED VFR MET CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE VALID PD. AT KFWA CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE SLOWER IMPROVEMENT PER NORTHERN EXTENT OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN ALSO MAY PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN MAINTAINING IFR CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF NIGHT. ATTEMPT TO BRING MODICUM OF IMPROVEMENT FOR MAJORITY OF DAYLIGHT HOURS...THOUGH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS BLO 2KFT WILL PERSIST INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MURPHY SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...MURPHY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1150 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 CHILLY...WET AND RAW CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK...USHERING IN MORE RAIN AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 920 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGESTING THE FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST BORDER ZONES JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MAIN REGION OF LIFT DIMINISHES...BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME RAIN CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AS OVERRUNNING LINGERS ALONG FRONT. ALL IN ALL...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS MADE ON THE UPDATE WILL BE FOR THE WINDS DUE TO FRONTAL POSITION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE SEEN A 7 TO 10 DEGREE DROP WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT 20Z...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY ALIGNED FROM JUST NORTH OF KMIE W/SW THROUGH CENTRAL VERMILLION COUNTY. TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE RAIN AND TEMPERATURE SHIFT ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE NEAR TERM AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD TREK THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS THE INDY METRO OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE METRO AREA TO THE SOUTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE BOUNDARY EVEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT STRETCHES OUT. WHILE THE JET WEAKENS...DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH THE REGION REMAINING NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE DEPARTING UPPER JET OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THIS POINTS TO CONTINUED RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RATES SETTING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. 100 POPS REMAINS VALID FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO A RAW AND CHILLY N/NE FLOW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS...TOOK CURRENT OBS AND UTILIZED THE 18Z RAP AS A STARTING POINT FOR HOURLY TEMP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS WITH THE FRONT SLIDING SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT LIES AT 12Z SATURDAY WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW COOL FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LOCALES FROM BEDFORD THROUGH SEYMOUR AND NORTH VERNON HANG UP CLOSER TO 50. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH A PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A BRIEF BREAK WEDGED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY. AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED HERE THROUGH THE DAY. THE DEEPER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WELL BEHIND THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING CLOUDY INTO SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DRAWING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL BECOME ZONAL AND EVEN BRIEFLY RIDGE AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO SHIFT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BULK OF THE RAINFALL SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND GIVE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA A RESPITE FROM THE WET PATTERN. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY BUT MOST SHOULD STAY DRY. ELONGATED AND STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LEADING TO A RESUMPTION OF THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...DEEPENING QUICKLY AS IT PULLS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROMPT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT. TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PLAY AT THIS POINT BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OP GFS FASTER IN BRINGING PRECIP BACK NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL REINTRODUCE LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH HIGHER POPS MONDAY AS STEADIER RAINS ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMPS...A MOS BLEND OVERALL WORKED WELL FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR LOWS AS MAV AND MET GUIDANCE LOOKED TOO AGGRESSIVE AND FAR TOO COLD WITH LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO START THE LONG TERM...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH IT. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY AND WARM BY A COUPLE DEGREES BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/06Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS LIKELY MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES WITH FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT MOST SITES THROUGHOUT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 14-15KT AT TIMES. A PERIODIC GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL BE TOO INFREQUENT TO MENTION. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IFR OR WORSE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND/OR SOME DRIZZLE. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1001 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 816 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA CURRENTLY. THIS CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WILL CREATE A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES. THE ICE ACCUMULATION WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT AS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE LAST NIGHT. NO ADVISORY FOR ICE ACCUMULATION IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SNOW LARGE CLOSED LOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH EXTENSIVE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHEAST US. DRY LAYER (APPARENT ON SATELLITE) IS STILL INFLUENCE OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPLICATE PRECIP TYPE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...STAGNANT/COLD PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH POST FRONTAL/COLD AIR MASS LINGERING IN PLACE. WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REMAIN IN PLACE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES/TYPE IS THE DEPTH/NATURE OF THE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER OUR CWA. A DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 6000 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPED OVER NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AND ADVECTED SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA PUTTING AN END TO PRECIP. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF RETURN FLOW/UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE -3 TO -8C LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS FLOW ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AS NORTHERLY WINDS (INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE) SHOULD KEEP A PERSISTENT DRY LAYER IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL OR AT THE VERY LEAST COVERAGE. GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ON SHIFTING BL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. A COMPLICATED PRECIP TYPE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN IF THE RETURN FLOW DOESN`T OCCUR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS END UP OVERDONE. AFTER COLLABORATION...DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND I PLAN ON HANDLING THE POTENTIAL WITH SPS FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN UTAH INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLAN TO GO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT SINCE FORCING AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS DECREASING AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SUNDAY. FORCING INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND GOES INTO THE NIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING AS MID LEVELS SATURATE AND ICE FORMS IN THE COLUMN. OVERNIGHT MID LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS DECREASING AGAIN SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE LIGHT SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND THE MID 30S MONDAY. IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE FA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. CONSEQUENTLY, POPS WILL BE NIL. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS MODERATING TO THE LOWER 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MODERATING TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 959 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL FALL FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CEILINGS CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JTL/CLT SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1152 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 313 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NRN BRANCH NW FLOW ALF PENETRATING INTO THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF PERSISTENT WRN TROF/SE RDG SRN BRANCH FLOW REGIME DOMINATING THE CONUS. NW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE NCNTRL PLAINS IS ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH UPSTREAM 12Z H85 TEMPS -13C AT INL AND -14C AT YPL. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LK EFFECT CLD COVER OVER THE CWA...BUT LO SUBSIDENCE INVRN...WITH INVRN BASE AT 12Z NEAR H9-925 AT INL AND YPL...HAS GREATLY LIMITED THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE LES IMPACTING AREAS NEAR LK SUP. THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS...WITH 12Z PWAT ABOUT 0.08 INCH AT BOTH INL/YPL /ABOUT 35 PCT OF NORMAL/...HAS ALSO HAD A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON PCPN. LO TEMPS THIS MRNG WERE QUITE FRIGID AND AS LO AS -5 TO -10F UNDER SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM THE HI CENTER IN THE DAKOTAS INTO NW ONTARIO. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LO CLDS TRENDS/TEMPS AS DRY HI PRES RDG IS FCST SLIDE SLOWLY SE THRU THE UPR LKS THRU SAT. TNGT...AS SFC RDG AXIS/SHARP ACYC LLVL FLOW UNDER AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE/DRY AIR SETTLES ACRS UPR MI...EXPECT LINGERING LK CLDS TO CLR. WITH PWATS IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH RANGE/LIGHT WINDS/VERY LO TEMPS OBSVD UPSTREAM THIS MRNG... WL FAVOR THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FCST...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH SN COVER. ARRIVAL OF SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STEADY W WINDS/ PERHAPS MORE PERSISTENT LK CLDS OVER THE KEWEENAW ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE RDG AXIS PASSING TO THE S WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP THERE. SAT...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/STEADY W WINDS UNDER THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STEADY W FLOW TO THE N OF HI PRES RDG AXIS FCST TO STRETCH FM MN ACRS WI INTO NRN LOWER MI ARE FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS INTO THE 0C TO -2C RANGE BY 00Z SUN. UNDER LINGERING AXIS OF DRY AIR...EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH LOWERING SUN ANGLE WL LIMIT DEGREE OF DIURNAL HEATING...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LO/MID 30S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP THE ARCTIC AIR TRAPPED OVER FAR NORTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND LOOKING AT THE CFSV2 AND LONG RANGE ECMWF ENSEMBLES...THAT PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF DECEMBER. JUMPING BACK TO THE SHORTER TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH AND A UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT WILL LEAVE THE AREA THE AREA WITH NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD. THERE IS ONE THING TO MENTION. A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY VEER THE BL WINDS AROUND TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR A TIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TURN TO THE NORTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 920MB MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S MODEL RUNS...THE CLOUD DEPTH IS SHALLOWER AND VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. WILL FOLLOW THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD COVER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BASED OFF THE INDICATED LOW CLOUDS ON THE NAM/GFS FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING...WOULD EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO PUSH BACK OUT OF THE AREA. WITH AS LOW AS THE CLOUDS ARE INDICATED IN MODELS TODAY...MAY NEED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL FOR SUNDAY MORNING. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LOW. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED LOWER ON QPF VALUES SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR GENERALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WHICH INCREASES THE RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.P.. EXPECT THE MAIN PUSH OF PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THEN EXPECT JUST LIGHT PRECIPITATION THE REST OF THE WAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THE FAR WEST COULD SEE SOME MODERATE SNOW AS THE AREA OF FORCING FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND IS FOCUSED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE WESTERN U.P.. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...DON/T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW...AS THE MID LEVELS QUICKLY DRY OUT DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH COLDER THAN -5C. THAT UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KCMX WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX EARLY THIS PERIOD. KIWD AND KSAW WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 313 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 AS A HI PRES RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...A STRENGTHENING WSW WIND UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND LO PRES CROSSING NRN ONTARIO. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES TYPICALLY ACCENTUATE THIS FLOW. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL DIMINISH STEADILY LATER ON SAT AND VEER TO THE NE THRU SUN AS A WEAK LO PRES TROF/SLACKER GRADIENT DIP INTO THE UPPER LAKES AND HI PRES BUILDS INTO NW ONTARIO. ONCE THE HI SHIFTS TO THE E...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS ON MON. A STRONGER E WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL THEN DEVELOP ON TUE AS A DEEP LO PRES MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NNW ON WED FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS LO TO THE E. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...07 MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1142 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 .UPDATE: Issued at 925 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015 Large area of rain stretching from the ARKLATEX into southern IL continues to drift south. A quick glance at 00z NAM as well as hi-res HRRR suggest that this southward shift will persist overnight, with the heaviest rain threat remaining confined to areas south of I44 in MO and s of I70 in IL, draped along strong low level baroclinic zone north of slow moving cold front. Flood Watch for central MO was cancelled earlier this evening, and based on above trends have also cancelled the Flood Watch over the STL Metro. Although the heavy rain threat should be confined to the southern third of the CWA, I have remained fairly generous with lower PoPs further north as area is RRQ of jet core over the Great Lakes. Can`t totally rule out a threat of frozen precip in our far NW counties late tonight, but very much uncertain about how much...if any...precip will be able to develop in this area of sub-freezing temps. Truett && .SHORT TERM: (Through Saturday) Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015 A strong wound-up storm system over the Great Basin region of the western CONUS is expected to move little during this period, maintaining an active southwest flow aloft over our region, with disturbances training along. This will all intersect a pretty moist airmass in place still over our region and result in high probs for precipitation, especially for areas near and south of the I-70 corridor. First, will keep the FFA going as-is. Despite rain tapering off in central and now east-central MO, the rain is cycling to an extent and should try to fill back in further north into central MO this evening and overnight. Also, flooding effects are typically delayed from when the rainfall occurs and so the flood threat does not end right when the rainfall tapers. Will let the evening and overnight shifts re-evaluate and cancel early as needed once the effects on the area are better realized. Second, surface temps will once again approach the freezing mark across parts of northeast MO and west-central IL and with current and expected vertical temp profiles, would be supportive of a brief period of light freezing rain or sleet. Fortunately, much of the threat for measurable pcpn will be south of this area and any amounts, should they occur, should be very light. PoPs here are below 50%. Preferred the higher end of MOS temps for mins tonight and lower end of MOS for maxes Saturday with extensive cloud cover in place. TES .LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Friday) Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015 (Sunday - Monday) As the wound-up western CONUS storm begins to stir eastward, the pattern over us remains status quo, with an active southwest flow aloft and additional disturbances tracking thru, overrunning moisture well to the north of the old surface boundary. This should result in another widespread rain event, but QPF will be light, with around a tenth of an inch forecast and should have minimal to no impact on flooding concerns. Good agrement then continues on what to do with the storm system center, bringing it out into the Plains by Monday and track it to our north Monday night. During this process, a strong disturbance will rotate around the southern periphery and impact our area Monday. QPF looks low, with a tenth of an inch or less forecast for this event, but probs remain on the high side, with likely PoPs forecast. Temps will be at or a tad below average for daytime maxes, but remain above average for nighttime mins--all because of the extensive cloud cover that continues to be forecast. (Tuesday - Next Friday) Good model agreement begins to go away by late Wednesday, with a pair of dry days expected Tuesday and Wednesday. GFS is showing a stronger storm system trying to take shape on Thursday than the EC, but this system at first glance looks to be moisture starved and have kept PoPs on the dry side for now. Consensus then re-achieved for Friday with building heights and ridging overhead. With cold air forecast to continue to be locked up well north, temps will begin this period around average but trend warmer by the end of the week with the building heights aloft and southerly flow at the surface. TES && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night) Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015 IFR flight conditions will continue to prevail across the area into Saturday morning. Latest guidance is more pessimistic about the ceilings rising on Saturday, and it may take until late morning across northeast MO and west central IL to go MVFR. IFR may stick around for most of the day further south, with little chance for improving to MVFR in southeast MO and southern IL. Lingering light rain and drizzle will continue to keep lowered visibility across much of the area along and south of the I-70 corridor through at least mid morning...longer further south. Ceilings will likely improve later in the afternoon and into the evening, but the improvement may be short lived as stratus tends to lower during the nighttime hours. Specifics for KSTL: IFR ceilings will continue to prevail at Lambert at least through Saturday morning. Lingering light rain/drizzle will also continue to lower the visibility to 3-5SM...probably at least until 12-15Z. Latest guidance is more pessimistic about the ceilings rising on Saturday...and there looks to be little if any probability that ceilings will rise above 1000 FT before 20Z, and ceilings probably won`t rise above 2000 FT through the night into Sunday morning. In fact, clouds may drop back below 1000 FT overnight Saturday night as stratus tends to lower during the nighttime hours. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO- Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO- Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Randolph IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 .AVIATION... PER TRENDS SO FAR TONIGHT/LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL RUNS STARTING TO GET A BIT MORE CONFIDENT WITH IDEA OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE 59 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. HAVE TRENDED TAFS ACCORDINGLY BUT KEEPING WITH NO FROPA FOR LBX/GLS SITES UNTIL LATE MORN/EARLY AFTN OR SO. LOW CIGS (GENERALLY IFR) PROGGED FOR THE POST FRONTAL TIME- FRAME ALONG WITH LIGHT PCPN GIVEN THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS AND THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT. ALL IN ALL A RATHER MESSY FCST WITH THIS PATTERN. 41 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/ REFINED TIMING OF FRONT BASED ON LATEST HRRR RUNS...JUST A TAD FASTER THAN EARLIER THIS EVENING. IN FACT ALREADY SEEING COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO WESTERN SUBURBS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER PAST HOUR AT BROOKSHIRE AND NEAR KATY. SOUTHWARD PUSH SLOWER HOWEVER NORTH OF TOWN...SO DEPENDING WHERE YOU ARE AROUND TOWN THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH GREATER HOUSTON OVERNIGHT...OCCURING NOW IN SOME WESTERN SUBURBS...BUT MORE TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR SE SECTIONS. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH SLOWLY TO COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BUT THIS IS THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR NOW. COULD BE SOME AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S...AND WATER TEMPERATURE AT BAY ENTRANCE IS 67. 46 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 45 49 46 50 48 / 70 60 60 60 40 HOUSTON (IAH) 53 56 55 67 53 / 40 50 40 40 30 GALVESTON (GLS) 67 73 64 71 60 / 20 20 20 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1107 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 .AVIATION... NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN FLYING CONDITIONS DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL GENERALLY CONTROL CATEGORY. CIGS AND VIS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR DEPENDING ON RAIN SHOWERS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NORTH AT 1O TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATE MORNING SATURDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/ UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO MAX POPS AT 100 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM BEXAR AND MEDINA COUNTIES...UP THROUGH LLANO COUNTY. THIS AREA ON RADAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH THE NORTHWARD TREND OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER. KEPT THE ISOLATED THUNDER IN FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS...BUT REMOVED AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE SEEN ONLY 1 OR 2 STRIKES OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS AND WITH THE SURFACE GETTING COLDER AND NO EVIDENCE OF STRONG LIFT COMING IN FROM THE WEST...FEEL THAT THE RISK OF THUNDER IS DROPPING QUICKLY. HAVE ALSO REDUCED POP OUT WEST TO 50 PERCENT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LACK OF ENHANCEMENT ON IR SATELLITE. ALL THE MESO MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED RAIN AREAS OVERNIGHT WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZATION. FEEL THAT OUR CURRENT QPF LOOKS GOOD WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OVERNIGHT IN SOME SPOTS. FRONT IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF OUR CWA WITH IT BEING OVER SOUTHERN ATASCOSA COUNTY AND OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES. AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL GET NEAR STEADY TEMPS OVERNIGHT. AREAS IN THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY HAVE SEEN SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ALREADY BUT ALL MODELS KEEP THE AREA ABOVE FREEZING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ICE AT THIS TIME...JUST A COLD RAIN. WITH ALL THE METARS SHOWING NEAR SATURATION AND RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THERE IS NOT MUCH ROOM FOR WET BULBING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... AS OF 3 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LEXINGTON TO AUSTIN TO DEL RIO. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE AT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN CLEAR THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING IN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS FOR OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME 2 INCH IN 6 HOUR RAIN TOTALS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEHIND THE FRONT. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF AMOUNTS THIS HIGH FOR THIS AREA...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE PW VALUES TOO HIGH WITH 2 INCH VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS ONLY SHOWS 1.8 INCHES...WHICH IS STILL ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DO THINK RAIN WILL FALL FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EVEN IF 2 INCHES FALL OVER 6 HOURS...RAIN RATES SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THE COLD SECTOR AND THE BEST WARM-RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE SHUT DOWN. CONTINUE TO THINK THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF MAY ACTUALLY FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES....BETWEEN DEL RIO AND SAN ANTONIO. THE VARIOUS WRF MODELS AND NOW THE HRRR CONTINUE TO PROG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP NEAR DEL RIO...THEN TRACK TO THE ESE IN THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE WOULD LIKELY HELP LOCALLY ENHANCE THE LIFT TO SUPPORT BETTER PRECIPITATION RATES. THE LOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST IN THE AREA AS SOME OF THE AIR BECOMES WRAPPED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW ALSO ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP RATES. IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED SURFACE TROUGH...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTING TO THIS REGION AS WELL FOR THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING MORE ENHANCEMENT IN THE REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES VERSUS THE EASTERN AND THIS IS LIKELY THE REASON. OUR STORM TOTAL PRECIP GRAPHIC FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AN AXIS FROM ZAVALA COUNTY UP INTO MEDINA/UVALDE AND NORTHEAST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AM EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR THIS AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS REACHING 4+. WHILE THERE ARE ABNORMALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND A FRONT...THERE ARE SEVERAL INGREDIENTS LACKING FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR OUR AREA. THE FIRST IS DEEP FORCING FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER UTAH AND A RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BEST SHEAR AXIS /LIFT/ REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS MEANS OUR MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION. SECOND...OUR REGION IS ALSO UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WHICH ALSO ISNT FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THIRD...WE DO HAVE A COLD FRONT IN PLACE BUT THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO STALL AND THUS WILL NOT SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. LASTLY...THE 850 FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...DETACHED FROM THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL NOT ENHANCE FRONTAL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TO SUMMARIZE...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED PLACES...BUT WE ARE LACKING MECHANISMS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OUT OF THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S/40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL NOT WARM MUCH FROM THOSE VALUES. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS TOMORROW AS THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT FROM TODAY. THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWERING RAIN AMOUNTS EVEN FURTHER. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF AREA...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHEAR AXIS. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S ONCE AGAIN. LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... FOR SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...BUT NOT BY MUCH AS NORTH WINDS REMAIN AT THE SURFACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PERSIST AND EXPECT LOW POPS TO CONTINUE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SHIFT THE RAIN CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND THESE POPS WILL ONLY BE 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTH FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN OPEN TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SET UP OVER THE AREA AND WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE CURRENT EVENT AND MORE TYPICAL FOR THE WINTER SEASON. THE FORECAST WILL DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 44 46 43 49 45 / 90 80 70 60 30 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 43 47 44 49 44 / 90 80 70 60 30 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 45 47 44 51 45 / 90 80 70 60 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 41 44 40 47 42 / 100 80 70 70 20 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 41 47 44 57 45 / 80 60 50 30 - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 40 44 41 48 42 / 90 80 70 70 30 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 43 48 44 53 46 / 100 80 70 50 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 44 46 44 50 45 / 90 80 70 60 30 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 50 44 51 48 / 80 70 60 60 30 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 47 48 45 51 47 / 100 80 70 60 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 49 50 46 53 48 / 100 80 70 50 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 .DISCUSSION... REFINED TIMING OF FRONT BASED ON LATEST HRRR RUNS...JUST A TAD FASTER THAN EARLIER THIS EVENING. IN FACT ALREADY SEEING COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO WESTERN SUBURBS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER PAST HOUR AT BROOKSHIRE AND NEAR KATY. SOUTHWARD PUSH SLOWER HOWEVER NORTH OF TOWN...SO DEPENDING WHERE YOU ARE AROUND TOWN THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH GREATER HOUSTON OVERNIGHT...OCCURING NOW IN SOME WESTERN SUBURBS...BUT MORE TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR SE SECTIONS. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH SLOWLY TO COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BUT THIS IS THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR NOW. COULD BE SOME AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S...AND WATER TEMPERATURE AT BAY ENTRANCE IS 67. 46 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/ DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE AT CALDWELL DROPPED FROM 73 TO 55 DEGREES AFTER THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH. CURRENT READINGS WELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AREA) ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHILE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 CAN BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ALSO SEEING A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY UP IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL HAVE THE FRONT MAKING PROGRESS FURTHER INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE REMAINING AFTERNOON...EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS THE AREA AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL CARRY THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES UP NORTH AND THE LOWER NUMBERS IN/AROUND THE GALVESTON BAY AREA WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. IF THIS HAPPENS...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN/AROUND THAT AREA COULD STAY IN THE 70S. MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES IS ON THE LOW SIDE. PERIODS OF RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE FRONT FINALLY OFF THE COAST...AND IT LOOKS LIKE CLEARING (AND STILL COOL TEMPERATURES) CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THIS MESSY SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. 42 MARINE... STILL HAVE A 7FT/10SEC SWELL ROLLING INTO THE UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS. WILL PROBABLY EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVSY IN THE 20-60NM WATERS THRU THE EVNG AND HOPEFULLY NEXT SHIFT CAN BEGIN THE DOWNGRADES AS SEAS START SLOWLY SUBSIDING. ALSO EXPECTING SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND/OR OVERWASH FROM WAVE RUN UP ON HIGHWAY 87/124 ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA THIS EVENING AROUND HIGH TIDE (6PM - OVERALL THREAT PERIOD 3-10PM). WATER LEVELS RUNNING ABOUT 1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL. THEY`LL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE WEEKEND BUT MODERATE DOWN TO AROUND +1FT AS WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE UPPER COAST LATER TONIGHT BUT PROBABLY STALL AND/OR MEANDER JUST INLAND FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS INITIAL WIND SHIFT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCURRING IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF FREEPORT LATE SAT...BUT OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE AS TO IF THE GLS AREA EVEN SEES ONE THIS WEEKEND IS QUITE LOW AS THERE ARE VARIOUS & INCONSISTENT MODEL SOLNS. THERE WILL BE A STRONGER SOUTHWARD PUSH ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING & HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE W/ THAT ONE NUDGING THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. MAY NEED SCA`S BY MIDWEEK. 47 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/ AVIATION... MIXED BAG OF MVFR & VFR CIGS OUT THERE TODAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MID AFTN HOURS...BUT DO EXPECT CIGS TO FALL BACK CLOSER TO 1000FT NEAR CLL 4-6PM AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP NEARS THE SITE. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO MAKE VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TO AROUND THE HWY 59 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT THEN HANG UP IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY SAT. DRIZZLY/-RA WX AND IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE THE RULE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY SAT. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 45 49 46 50 48 / 70 60 60 60 40 HOUSTON (IAH) 53 56 55 67 53 / 40 50 40 40 30 GALVESTON (GLS) 67 73 64 71 60 / 20 20 20 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
745 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SOME VERY PATCHY FOG IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA REGIONS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE VERY PATCHY NATURE, THE FOG WILL LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING THE 6:30 AM UPDATE DID REDUCE CLOUD COVER SOME ACROSS NJ AND DE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE 40`S TO LOW 50`S TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT BUT ENOUGH LIFT LOOKS PRESENT FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS AND NW NJ IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HRRR AND RAP NOT RULING OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THIS MORNING. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 6:30 AM UPDATE ON POPS BUT THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON NW OF PHL INCREASING IN COVERAGE TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL TIMING, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS MODELED 24 HOURS AGO. WITH THE FRONT NOT ARRIVING TILL THE AFTERNOON, THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NOONTIME ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ, ONLY NEAR 50 THEN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40`S. MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WITH SOME WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR THE PHILADELPHIA AREA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60`S, LIKELY A HAIR ABOVE MET/MAV GUIDANCE AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TAKING WITH IT THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL TO THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. HOWEVER, QPF THROUGHOUT THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PERIODS LOOKS RATHER MEAGER UNDER 1/4TH OF AN INCH ON THE OPERATIONAL MODELS, THE SREF AND WPC GUIDANCE. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FUNNEL IN BEHIND THE FRONT, PERHAPS A HAIR SLOWER/WARMER THAN INDICATED WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO SLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RIGHT NOW ANY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEPART BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND WEST. EVEN IF THAT WERE NOT THE CASE, TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL BE SLOWER AT 925 AND 850 MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FREEZING DRIZZLE AND NOT SNOW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE BEST LIFT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF US INTO SRN VA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM ERN CANADA. ACCORDINGLY, ANY LEFTOVER ANAFRONTAL RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AND LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE ON SUNDAY. NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRAW COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN NE PA/NW NJ AND LM50S ELSEWHERE, WHICH IS ACTUALLY RIGHT AT CLIMO FOR THE END OF NOV. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE HIGH BUILDS, ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY IN SRN DE AND ADJACENT EASTERN MD. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THESE FAR SRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRY FOR MONDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE AN OVERRUNNING SETUP ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP RETURNING TO THE AREA EITHER LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD US. IF THE PRECIP COMES IN BEFORE SUNRISE, THEN MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOWILL BE AWAY FROM MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMIV. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KMIV UNTIL 12Z OR SO.R LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY AT THE ONSET IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF I- 80 (WHERE THE RETREATING COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS TYPICALLY LAST TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE OROGRAPHY). WILL KEEP THIS THREAT OUT OF THE HWO THIS FAR OUT SINCE IT SEEMS LIKE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO BUT STILL BEARS WATCHING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THRU THE AREA, WHICH IS WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS AND GEM AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE MIDWEEK COLD FROPA. ASIDE FROM MAYBE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY IN THE POCONOS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT (WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THRU), EXPECT A DRY ENDING TO THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOCALIZED FOG HAS BEEN NEAR KMIV THE LAST FEW HOURS AND MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. LOCAL TOOLS CONTINUE INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO FAVOR VFR TODAY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING GRADUALLY. WE HAVE INDICATED A TRANSITION TO MVFR CEILINGS AT KRDG AND KABE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS TIMING IS A FEW HOURS LATER FOR KPHL, KTTN AND TAF SITES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE FROM MID EVENING ON TONIGHT, MORE UNCERTAINTY ATTM TO INCLUDE WITH THE 12Z TAFS. THINKING SOME OF THE INDICATORS LOOKED AT MAY A BIT TO AGGRESSIVE LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THEN MORE NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS MAY YIELD MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN SRN TERMINALS (ILG-MIV-ACY) INITIALLY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS TO VFR ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT. SUNDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY VFR W/ CLEARING SKIES. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MARINE STRATUS MOVING INLAND. MIV AND ACY WOULD BE MOST VULNERABLE OF THE TAF SITES TO MVFR CIGS IN THIS SETUP. RAIN MAY ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. LIGHT ELY WINDS BECOME SELY LATE. WEDNESDAY...ATTM, THE RAIN MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE MORNING. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS INDICATING IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER SLOWER SOLUTIONS DELAY THE IMPROVEMENT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL OCCUR WITH A COLD FROPA. THE FROPA WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM SLY TO WLY. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WE REMAIN AROUND FIVE FEET THROUGH TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND FOUR FEET TONIGHT. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH 23Z FOR THE HIGH SEAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SEAS MAY BE SLIGHTLY DELAYED FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET TONIGHT WITH THE PERSISTENT ESE SWELL. FOR NOW THOUGH, BOTH WAVEWATCH AND NWPS HAVE SEAS FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET BY THIS EVENING, SO WILL NOT EXTEND THE SCA. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING NELY WINDS 15-20 KT WILL ACCOMPANY A PRESSURE SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH OF A GUST POTENTIAL IN THIS SETUP SO GETTING 25 KT GUSTS ARE QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER, SEAS IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 4-7 FT, SO A SCA WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEDNESDAY...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT, THEN SHARPLY TURN WLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED. && .EQUIPMENT... KDIX RADAR IS BACK IN SERVICE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLEIN NEAR TERM...GAINES SHORT TERM...GAINES LONG TERM...KLEIN AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
617 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SOME VERY PATCHY FOG IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA REGIONS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE VERY PATCHY NATURE, THE FOG WILL LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING THE 6:30 AM UPDATE DID REDUCE CLOUD COVER SOME ACROSS NJ AND DE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE 40`S TO LOW 50`S TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT BUT ENOUGH LIFT LOOKS PRESENT FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS AND NW NJ IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HRRR AND RAP NOT RULING OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THIS MORNING. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 6:30 AM UPDATE ON POPS BUT THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON NW OF PHL INCREASING IN COVERAGE TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL TIMING, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS MODELED 24 HOURS AGO. WITH THE FRONT NOT ARRIVING TILL THE AFTERNOON, THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NOONTIME ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ, ONLY NEAR 50 THEN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40`S. MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WITH SOME WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR THE PHILADELPHIA AREA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60`S, LIKELY A HAIR ABOVE MET/MAV GUIDANCE AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TAKING WITH IT THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL TO THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. HOWEVER, QPF THROUGHOUT THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PERIODS LOOKS RATHER MEAGER UNDER 1/4TH OF AN INCH ON THE OPERATIONAL MODELS, THE SREF AND WPC GUIDANCE. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FUNNEL IN BEHIND THE FRONT, PERHAPS A HAIR SLOWER/WARMER THAN INDICATED WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO SLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RIGHT NOW ANY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEPART BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND WEST. EVEN IF THAT WERE NOT THE CASE, TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL BE SLOWER AT 925 AND 850 MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FREEZING DRIZZLE AND NOT SNOW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE BEST LIFT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF US INTO SRN VA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM ERN CANADA. ACCORDINGLY, ANY LEFTOVER ANAFRONTAL RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AND LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE ON SUNDAY. NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRAW COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN NE PA/NW NJ AND LM50S ELSEWHERE, WHICH IS ACTUALLY RIGHT AT CLIMO FOR THE END OF NOV. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE HIGH BUILDS, ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY IN SRN DE AND ADJACENT EASTERN MD. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THESE FAR SRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRY FOR MONDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE AN OVERRUNNING SETUP ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP RETURNING TO THE AREA EITHER LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD US. IF THE PRECIP COMES IN BEFORE SUNRISE, THEN MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOWILL BE AWAY FROM MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMIV. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KMIV UNTIL 12Z OR SO.R LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY AT THE ONSET IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF I- 80 (WHERE THE RETREATING COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS TYPICALLY LAST TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE OROGRAPHY). WILL KEEP THIS THREAT OUT OF THE HWO THIS FAR OUT SINCE IT SEEMS LIKE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO BUT STILL BEARS WATCHING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THRU THE AREA, WHICH IS WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS AND GEM AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE MIDWEEK COLD FROPA. ASIDE FROM MAYBE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY IN THE POCONOS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT (WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THRU), EXPECT A DRY ENDING TO THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOCALIZED FOG HAS BEEN NEAR KMIV THE LAST FEW HOURS AND MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. LOCAL TOOLS CONTINUE INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO FAVOR VFR TODAY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING GRADUALLY. WE HAVE INDICATED A TRANSITION TO MVFR CEILINGS AT KRDG AND KABE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS TIMING IS A FEW HOURS LATER FOR KPHL, KTTN AND TAF SITES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE FROM MID EVENING ON TONIGHT, MORE UNCERTAINTY ATTM TO INCLUDE WITH THE 12Z TAFS. THINKING SOME OF THE INDICATORS LOOKED AT MAY A BIT TO AGGRESSIVE LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THEN MORE NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS MAY YIELD MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN SRN TERMINALS (ILG-MIV-ACY) INITIALLY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS TO VFR ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT. SUNDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY VFR W/ CLEARING SKIES. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MARINE STRATUS MOVING INLAND. MIV AND ACY WOULD BE MOST VULNERABLE OF THE TAF SITES TO MVFR CIGS IN THIS SETUP. RAIN MAY ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. LIGHT ELY WINDS BECOME SELY LATE. WEDNESDAY...ATTM, THE RAIN MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE MORNING. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS INDICATING IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER SLOWER SOLUTIONS DELAY THE IMPROVEMENT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL OCCUR WITH A COLD FROPA. THE FROPA WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM SLY TO WLY. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WE REMAIN AROUND FIVE FEET THROUGH TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND FOUR FEET TONIGHT. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH 23Z FOR THE HIGH SEAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SEAS MAY BE SLIGHTLY DELAYED FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET TONIGHT WITH THE PERSISTENT ESE SWELL. FOR NOW THOUGH, BOTH WAVEWATCH AND NWPS HAVE SEAS FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET BY THIS EVENING, SO WILL NOT EXTEND THE SCA. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING NELY WINDS 15-20 KT WILL ACCOMPANY A PRESSURE SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH OF A GUST POTENTIAL IN THIS SETUP SO GETTING 25 KT GUSTS ARE QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER, SEAS IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 4-7 FT, SO A SCA WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEDNESDAY...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT, THEN SHARPLY TURN WLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED. && .EQUIPMENT... KDIX RADAR IS CURRENTLY INOPERABLE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED ABOUT THE OUTAGE. THE RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLEIN NEAR TERM...GAINES SHORT TERM...GAINES LONG TERM...KLEIN AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN EQUIPMENT...GAINES/KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 INDIANA WILL LIE BETWEEN A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH TODAY. AS THE WEEKEND GOES ON...THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND TAKE CONTROL OF HOOSIER WEATHER. FROM MONDAY INTO A WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS INDIANA WHILE MOVING NORTH AND THEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT TO END THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF KSDF WITH RAIN PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ENTIRE AREA SEEING THE CHILLY N/NE FLOW. 15Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS ONCE AGAIN ON TEMPERATURES AND FINE TUNING POPS AS RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST. HRRR/WRF GUIDANCE AGAIN HAS A NICE HANDLE ON PRECIP COVERAGE WITH PRECIP ENDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT A SHALLOW SUBFREEZING LAYER DEVELOPING BETWEEN 1-2KFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS MAY BRIEFLY ENABLE GRAUPEL TO PERIODICALLY MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN AS IT ENDS. WILL NOT INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND EXPECTED LOCALIZED COVERAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE LITTLE IF NOT FALL A COUPLE DEGREES LATER TODAY. HAVE TRENDED HOURLY TEMPS CLOSER TO LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAW SURFACE TEMPS OFF THE RAP FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH MOST AREAS HOVERING BETWEEN THE UPPER 30S AND MID 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. STEADY N/NE WINDS WILL ADD TO THE RAW DAMP FEELING PRESENT. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 THE IMMEDIATE PROBLEM IS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT RAIN RETREATING SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT...BUT THE GFS BRINGS SOME BACK LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GFS COULD BE RIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT IS A POTENTIAL AREA FOR INERTIAL INSTABILITY. THE MODEL HAS NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY WHICH WOULD REFLECT THIS AT 18Z TOMORROW. THE LAST TIME SOMETHING SIMILAR HAPPENED THE GFS WAS CORRECT. FOR THAT REASON THE MAV POPS THAT RELY ON IT WILL BE USED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AFTER SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW PROGRESSIVELY GREATER DIFFERENCES DEVELOPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. CONSENSUS WILL BE USED TO GRAPPLE WITH THIS. SKIES ARE APT TO STAY CLOUDY THANKS TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL STUFF COMING OUT OF THE TROUGH ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES EXCEPT FOR THE MAV COLDER AT SOME PLACES SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON WHATS BEEN OCCURRING AROUND THE FRONT IT LOOKS BETTER THEN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW PASSES OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THAT POINT...AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/15Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 925 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS TO THE SOUTH OF TAF SITES. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. AS RAIN COMES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE SAT 19Z-SUN 01Z TIME FRAME...MVFR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND CLOUDS WILL SCATTER...SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AT ALL TAF SITES BY SUN 10Z. KLAF CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLIER THOUGH SINCE IT/S FARTHEST FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 8 TO 12 KTS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JK NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...TDUD/CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
655 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 655 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY TAPER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER SOUTHEAST OF ROUTE 24 THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY BREAKS MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 40...AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 RATHER BENIGN NEAR/SHORT TERM PD AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ENEWD THROUGH OHIO VALLEY. FINAL VESTIGES OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE /ESPECIALLY WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR UVM OWING TO LOCAL PRESSURE TENDENCY/DERIVATIVE ON I285-290K SURFACES EJECTING FROM ECNTL ILLINOIS TO ALONG AND S OF ROUTE 24 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AM AND WILL ACCOUNT WITH SEPARATE PREFIRST PD. WHILE SOME RAPL MIX ACROSS NERN IL EARLIER THIS EVENING AND SOME UP AWOS ACRS SRN LWR MI...HAVE MAINTAINED ALL LIQUID AS MAGNITUDE AND DEPTH OF MAX TW ALOFT GREATER ACRS CWA PER RAP ANALYSIS...CERTAINLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE SNOW MIX PER RELATIVE WARM CLOUD TOP TEMPS SUGGESTING LACK OF/OR AT LEAST QUESTIONABLE ICE CRYSTAL NUCLEATION PER AMDAR AND RAP SOUNDINGS. ALL BUT FAR SERN THIRD OF CWA DIFFICULT TO MEASURE ESPECIALLY BYND 15 UTC AS FEATURE WEAKENS/PUSHES EWD WHILE FOCUS SAGS SEWD AS INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINS WITH DVM ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGE STRENGTHENING/BUILDING EWD THROUGH CNTL LWR MI THROUGH THE DAY. HELD LINE ON TEMPS GIVEN ANTICIPATED LAGGARD CLOUD COVER WITH AFTERNOON PARTIAL CLEARING RELEGATED PRIMARILY NORTH OF ROUTE 24. POOR INSOLATION OPPORTUNITY AMID PERSISTENT 925MB CAA/LOW SOLAR ZENITH ANGLE/SHORT DURATION OF SHORTWAVE FLUX. SLIGHT LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS FOR SUN AM AS WELL...INLINE WITH GUIDANCE...ACCENTUATING N/S GRADIENT AS NORTHERN CWA MOST LIKELY AND MORE READILY TO DECOUPLE PER PROXIMAL SOUTHERN RIDGE PERIPHERY...AS WELL AS REMOVE MARINE LAYER BLEED IN AS OFFSHORE/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FAVORS A COLD KBEH. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 SUNDAY STILL LOOKING RELATIVELY PLEASANT...THOUGH SEASONABLY COOL. SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL RIDGE/AVA WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION AND SUPPORT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE/HIGH PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 1C SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW THEN PINWHEELS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH WITH A DECENT SWATH OF 290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH ARRIVAL OF MIDLEVEL CVA BULLSEYE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT TIMING/TRACK OF EJECTING LOW BUT KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/MODERATE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT...A FEW TENTHS AT BEST GIVEN RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT OF MEDIOCRE FORCING AND MOISTURE. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LIFTING CYCLONE TO BRING SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE HELP OF WARM LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TIMING/TRACK ISSUES LEAD TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARM SURFACE TEMPS BUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES COULD SEE A QUICK DUSTING WEDNESDAY MORNING IF BETTER PRECIP RATES ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE. KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY BUT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SCT SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IF SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TO END THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 655 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 PRIMARY CHANGE TO MAINTAIN LOWERED CONDITIONS A BIT LONGER ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AS OHIO VALLEY FRONTAL WAVE SLOW TO TRACK NEWD. LONGER DURATION CIGS BLO 2KFT AT KSBN. IFR CIGS INTO MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY FUELING/ALTERNATE CRITERIA A BIT LONGER AT KFWA. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MURPHY SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...MURPHY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
945 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 945 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MUCH OF THE LEADING EDGE OF ECHOES OBSERVED ON RADAR ARE NOT RESULTING IN RAIN AT THE SURFACE...EVEN WHERE THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL RETURNS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. LOWER LAYERS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ALLOWING RAIN AT THE SURFACE BUT THE RAIN WILL BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS. HAVE UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO SLOW THE BEGIN TIMES OF THE RAIN. ALSO MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY NDFD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING... REACHING THE OHIO RIVER AS OF THIS UPDATE. WE ARE ALSO IN A LULL OF SORTS UNTIL MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY/TN REACHES US LATER THIS MORNING...TO MID DAY. HRRR HAS MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS MOVING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. UNTIL THEN EXPECT MORE SCATTERED TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. EARLY MORNING UPDATE MAKES ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS AND ZONES FOR LATEST THOUGHTS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...OR KDAY BEFORE TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE SFC BOUNDARY ONLY INCHES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD FROM THERE...MANAGING TO DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT COMPLETELY. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT KEEPING THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION ECHOS IS PRODUCING MAINLY SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE KENTUCKY MESONET IT APPEARS THAT A STATION OR TWO ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST HAVE MANAGED TO SQUEAK OUT AS MUCH AS A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH THUS FAR THIS MORNING. EXPECT A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WILL DO THE SAME BEFORE THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MANAGED TO EXIT TO THE EAST A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 40S IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF REBOUNDING AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. RAIN DUE TO A CONTINUOUS MOISTURE FEED AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. FURTHER WEST...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...IT IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN...ALLOWING A SFC LOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THIS SFC LOW WILL PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY EVENING...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NEWD...THE UPPER TROUGH GETS ELONGATED BACK TOWARD THE SW SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC FRONT ALLOWING SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...THIS IS ALSO WHERE MODELS DIFFERENCES EMERGE. THE GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EXTENDING PRECIP NW INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/S SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS BUT STILL KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS OR JUST ABOVE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DROPPING TO AROUND 50 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT THEN QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 20S/NEAR 30 AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 740 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER. SCT SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL MORE STEADY AND WIDESPREAD RAIN REENTER THE AREA BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z TODAY. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL DROP WITH TIME AS A RESULT...WELL INTO MVFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN EVEN LOWER IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE S...SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FROM THE N...NE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING AND CREEP SOUTHWARD FROM THERE... REACHING THE KY/TN/VA STATE LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SUNDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...JVM/HAL AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
740 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 740 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING... REACHING THE OHIO RIVER AS OF THIS UPDATE. WE ARE ALSO IN A LULL OF SORTS UNTIL MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY/TN REACHES US LATER THIS MORNING...TO MID DAY. HRRR HAS MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS MOVING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. UNTIL THEN EXPECT MORE SCATTERED TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. EARLY MORNING UPDATE MAKES ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS AND ZONES FOR LATEST THOUGHTS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...OR KDAY BEFORE TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE SFC BOUNDARY ONLY INCHES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD FROM THERE...MANAGING TO DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT COMPLETELY. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT KEEPING THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION ECHOS IS PRODUCING MAINLY SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE KENTUCKY MESONET IT APPEARS THAT A STATION OR TWO ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST HAVE MANAGED TO SQUEAK OUT AS MUCH AS A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH THUS FAR THIS MORNING. EXPECT A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WILL DO THE SAME BEFORE THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MANAGED TO EXIT TO THE EAST A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 40S IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF REBOUNDING AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. RAIN DUE TO A CONTINUOUS MOISTURE FEED AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. FURTHER WEST...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...IT IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN...ALLOWING A SFC LOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THIS SFC LOW WILL PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY EVENING...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NEWD...THE UPPER TROUGH GETS ELONGATED BACK TOWARD THE SW SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC FRONT ALLOWING SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...THIS IS ALSO WHERE MODELS DIFFERENCES EMERGE. THE GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EXTENDING PRECIP NW INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/S SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS BUT STILL KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS OR JUST ABOVE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DROPPING TO AROUND 50 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT THEN QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 20S/NEAR 30 AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 740 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER. SCT SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL MORE STEADY AND WIDESPREAD RAIN REENTER THE AREA BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z TODAY. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL DROP WITH TIME AS A RESULT...WELL INTO MVFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN EVEN LOWER IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE S...SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FROM THE N...NE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING AND CREEP SOUTHWARD FROM THERE... REACHING THE KY/TN/VA STATE LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SUNDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...JVM/HAL AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
641 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPES. AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...IT SEEMS TO BE MAKING A BIT OF HEADWAY TO THE EAST INTO THE ROCKIES IN THE SHORT TERM AND MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSOLIDATING ON THE EVENTUAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW. MODELS INDICATE THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE EVENING. WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING HUGE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE WRF DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT THE HRRR IS STINGY WITH PRECIPITATION TODAY...FOR EXAMPLE. A DRY PUNCH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP TYPE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES THE DRY LAYER...THE GFS DOES INDICATE THAT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SO I DID STICK IN A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW ALONG WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. NOW THE EXCEPTION THIS EVENING WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE COULD SATURATE EARLIER...AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO I KEPT A FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET POTENTIAL IN FOR THIS AREA AS THE WARM LAYER WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN ZERO AND TWO DEGREES. I FIGURE THAT I AM COVERED WITH THE FREEZING RAIN IF WE HAPPEN TO NOT BE SATURATED IN THE LAYER OF POTENTIAL DENDRITES AND GET FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD. I DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH INCLUDING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TYPES HERE...SO I WILL TRY TO KEEP IT SIMPLE. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION AT ALL FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO HIRES NMM EAST FOR HIGHS AND SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT...AS IT APPEARS TO BE DOING OKAY FOR LOWS THIS MORNING (I RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST). .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 640 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 THE BIGGEST CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS WILL FOCUS ON AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE OUTLOOK AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND EVENTUALLY ANOTHER SNOW STORM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BECOMES ELONGATED AND POSITIVELY TILTED BY SUNDAY MORNING STRETCHING FROM NEVADA INTO WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE ROTATING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS DEBATE JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL GO...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL INDICATE MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT ON SUNDAY SHOULD PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AT ALL. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT TO THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES FIRST BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD. MADE AN ATTEMPT TO SHOW THIS SLIGHT TRANSITION BY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER TO SNOW IN THE FORECAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO BASED ON THESE PRECIPITATION TYPES. WHEN ITS ALL SAID AND DONE...THIS COULD BE THE LARGEST SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO FAR THIS YEAR. CURRENT SNOW TOTALS ARE SHAPING UP TO BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA..WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT FOR CERTAIN AS THERE ARE STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO CONSIDER. TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE AREA...HOW FAST WILL THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW SNOWFALL INSTEAD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR FREEZING OR POSSIBLY WARMER. ALL OF THIS COULD DRASTICALLY REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. AS FOR HEADLINES WITH THIS EVENT...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO WAIT TO ISSUE HEADLINES SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID NOT WANT TO BOX FUTURE SHIFTS IN WITH HEADLINES FOR LATER TIME PERIODS IF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE WEEKEND TURNS OUT TO BE A BIGGER DEAL. BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER PATTERN TURNS FAIRLY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO HIGHS IN THE 30S TO EVEN 40 DEGREES AT TIMES. OF COURSE...THIS TOO COULD BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON RESULTANT SNOW COVER FROM THE MONDAY STORM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 551 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY DIP TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO SATURATE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF PRIMARILY SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...MORE SO FOR TONIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THIS FORECAST. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN LONG TERM...SALTZMAN AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
553 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPES. AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...IT SEEMS TO BE MAKING A BIT OF HEADWAY TO THE EAST INTO THE ROCKIES IN THE SHORT TERM AND MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSOLIDATING ON THE EVENTUAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW. MODELS INDICATE THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE EVENING. WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING HUGE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE WRF DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT THE HRRR IS STINGY WITH PRECIPITATION TODAY...FOR EXAMPLE. A DRY PUNCH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP TYPE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES THE DRY LAYER...THE GFS DOES INDICATE THAT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SO I DID STICK IN A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW ALONG WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. NOW THE EXCEPTION THIS EVENING WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE COULD SATURATE EARLIER...AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO I KEPT A FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET POTENTIAL IN FOR THIS AREA AS THE WARM LAYER WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN ZERO AND TWO DEGREES. I FIGURE THAT I AM COVERED WITH THE FREEZING RAIN IF WE HAPPEN TO NOT BE SATURATED IN THE LAYER OF POTENTIAL DENDRITES AND GET FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD. I DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH INCLUDING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TYPES HERE...SO I WILL TRY TO KEEP IT SIMPLE. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION AT ALL FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO HIRES NMM EAST FOR HIGHS AND SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT...AS IT APPEARS TO BE DOING OKAY FOR LOWS THIS MORNING (I RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST). .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 551 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY DIP TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO SATURATE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF PRIMARILY SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...MORE SO FOR TONIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THIS FORECAST. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN LONG TERM...SALTZMAN AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
512 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPES. AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...IT SEEMS TO BE MAKING A BIT OF HEADWAY TO THE EAST INTO THE ROCKIES IN THE SHORT TERM AND MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSOLIDATING ON THE EVENTUAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW. MODELS INDICATE THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE EVENING. WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING HUGE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE WRF DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT THE HRRR IS STINGY WITH PRECIPITATION TODAY...FOR EXAMPLE. A DRY PUNCH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP TYPE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES THE DRY LAYER...THE GFS DOES INDICATE THAT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SO I DID STICK IN A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW ALONG WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. NOW THE EXCEPTION THIS EVENING WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE COULD SATURATE EARLIER...AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO I KEPT A FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET POTENTIAL IN FOR THIS AREA AS THE WARM LAYER WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN ZERO AND TWO DEGREES. I FIGURE THAT I AM COVERED WITH THE FREEZING RAIN IF WE HAPPEN TO NOT BE SATURATED IN THE LAYER OF POTENTIAL DENDRITES AND GET FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD. I DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH INCLUDING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TYPES HERE...SO I WILL TRY TO KEEP IT SIMPLE. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION AT ALL FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO HIRES NMM EAST FOR HIGHS AND SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT...AS IT APPEARS TO BE DOING OKAY FOR LOWS THIS MORNING (I RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST). .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN LONG TERM...SALTZMAN AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1043 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH DOWN INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO START THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... COLD FRONT IS SITUATED SOUTH OF CINCINNATI THIS MORNING. WINDS IN GENERAL WILL BE LIGHTER NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FRONT WITH NW PORTIONS OF THE FA IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA IN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND SE OHIO ARE IN THE MIDDLE 50S. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT TO RISE MUCH TODAY. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY ALTHOUGH SLIGHT INCREASES OR DECREASES IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SE OHIO. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE SE OF INTERSTATE 71. ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RAIN EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE. PRECIPITATION VALUES WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WHERE THE DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ONE LIMITING FACTOR TO FOG WOULD BE THAT IN MANY CASES THE WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH....THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES ESTABLISHED...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES (WITH RISING TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING). ON TUESDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW OVER WISCONSIN...A LITTLE TOO FAR AWAY TO ALLOW THE FRONTAL FORCING OR COLD ADVECTION TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE IMPRESSIONS OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE...TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WERE ALL RAISED SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY ALSO CUT INTO THE CHANCES OF SNOW ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST. PHASE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THIS LUMBERING UPPER PATTERN START TO BECOME PROBLEMATIC AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...CASTING SOME DOUBT ON EXACT PREDICTIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AFTER WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS AND IS AT THE DOOR STEP HERE AT KILN. IFR/ LIFR CIGS HAVE CONTINUED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THESE CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES. LATEST RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP ARE SHOWING RAIN COMING TO AN END NOW LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS IS PROBABLY A TAD BULLISH BUT GIVEN ISENTROPIC SURFACES LOOKED AT EARLIER HAVE TRENDED TAFS IN THIS DIRECTION. BY SUNDAY MORNING ALL RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CIGS. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
605 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH DOWN INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO START THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING TO MAKE A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE DAYTON METRO AREA TO AROUND KCMH. A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT...WITH READINGS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE MID 50S JUST TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTH TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY...SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALSO LINGERING ACROSS OUR NORTH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP PCPN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. HOWEVER...PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH....THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES ESTABLISHED...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES (WITH RISING TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING). ON TUESDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW OVER WISCONSIN...A LITTLE TOO FAR AWAY TO ALLOW THE FRONTAL FORCING OR COLD ADVECTION TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE IMPRESSIONS OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE...TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WERE ALL RAISED SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY ALSO CUT INTO THE CHANCES OF SNOW ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST. PHASE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THIS LUMBERING UPPER PATTERN START TO BECOME PROBLEMATIC AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...CASTING SOME DOUBT ON EXACT PREDICTIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AFTER WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS AND IS AT THE DOOR STEP HERE AT KILN. IFR/ LIFR CIGS HAVE CONTINUED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THESE CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES. LATEST RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP ARE SHOWING RAIN COMING TO AN END NOW LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS IS PROBABLY A TAD BULLISH BUT GIVEN ISENTROPIC SURFACES LOOKED AT EARLIER HAVE TRENDED TAFS IN THIS DIRECTION. BY SUNDAY MORNING ALL RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CIGS. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
556 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 .DISCUSSION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION. && .AVIATION... COLD FRONT WAS JUST REACHING THE COAST AT 11Z SO NOT QUITE REACHING KGLS. EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO SINCE THE FRONT IS QUITE SLOW MOVING. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE SHALLOW FRONTAL SURFACE SO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW CEILINGS. EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN CIGS TO MVFR BUT NOT LIKELY. OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RA/DZ WITH IFR CIGS. KIAH AND KSGR ARE ONLY SITES WITH LIFR CIGS WHICH SHOULD BECOME IFR LATER IN THE MORNING. LOOK FOR IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MIGHT GET SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT NAM/GFS STILL SUPPORT PREVAILING IFR CIGS. 39 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE MAIN ISSUES FACING SE TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH THE SLOWLY RECEDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. ANOTHER... STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH SE TEXAS ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE RAINFALL PATTERN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE EAST SIDE OF METRO HOUSTON AT 4 AM...HAVING PASSED THROUGH KIAH AND KHOU. THE FRONT WAS ALREADY OFF THE COAST AT MATAGORDA BAY. THE 09Z RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. THIS MODEL DOES NOT MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH GALVESTON AND POINTS EAST ALONG THE COAST UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING. IN ANY EVENT...THE RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. BETTER COVERAGE WAS IN ADVANCE OF THE 925 TROUGH WHICH THE HRRR KEEPS BASICALLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR WACO TO JUST WEST OF CALDWELL TODAY AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THAT THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTHWEST...THINK THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LIVINGSTON TO HUNTSVILLE TO NEAR COLUMBUS. THIS WILL CONTRAST TO AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH OR LESS TOWARD THE COAST. LESS OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WENT WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR BOTH PERIODS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT THUNDER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. 40 MARINE... BUOYS STILL SHOW 7FT SWELL WITH 10 SEC PERIODS. EXPECT THESE SWELLS TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH PROBABLY SOME SUBSIDING SINCE WINDS WILL BE LESS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING GALVESTON BAY AND MAY HAVE JUST PUSHED THROUGH MATAGORDA BAY. FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH TODAY. LATEST HRRR AND WRF ARW/NMM ALL HAVE THE FRONT SLOWLY CREEPING SOUTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 10 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT. CAUTION OR ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. TIDES...ARE STILL ELEVATED ABOUT 1.2 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BUT WINDS HAVE SLACKED OFF RESULTING IN MOST TIDE GAGES NOW SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND IN TIDE LEVELS. OVERALL TIDE LEVELS WILL DECREASE THROUGH MORNING WITH LOW TIDE. HIGH TIDE ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES OF GALVESTON AND BOLIVAR IS STILL AROUND 6PM THIS EVENING. THINKING THAT TIDES MAY ONLY BE ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD MAKE THE OVERALL WATER LEVEL ABOUT 3 FEET ABOVE MLLW INSTEAD OF 3.5 FEET RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TIDE LEVELS AND ISSUE ADVISORIES IF NEEDED BUT MORE CONFIDENT IN NOT HAVING AN ADVISORY THIS EVENING. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 47 43 50 47 58 / 90 60 60 50 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 57 50 60 53 63 / 70 40 40 40 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 69 59 66 59 64 / 40 30 30 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...40 AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
453 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN ISSUES FACING SE TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH THE SLOWLY RECEDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. ANOTHER... STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH SE TEXAS ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE RAINFALL PATTERN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE EAST SIDE OF METRO HOUSTON AT 4 AM...HAVING PASSED THROUGH KIAH AND KHOU. THE FRONT WAS ALREADY OFF THE COAST AT MATAGORDA BAY. THE 09Z RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. THIS MODEL DOES NOT MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH GALVESTON AND POINTS EAST ALONG THE COAST UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING. IN ANY EVENT...THE RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. BETTER COVERAGE WAS IN ADVANCE OF THE 925 TROUGH WHICH THE HRRR KEEPS BASICALLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR WACO TO JUST WEST OF CALDWELL TODAY AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THAT THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTHWEST...THINK THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LIVINGSTON TO HUNTSVILLE TO NEAR COLUMBUS. THIS WILL CONTRAST TO AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH OR LESS TOWARD THE COAST. LESS OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WENT WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR BOTH PERIODS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT THUNDER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. 40 && .MARINE... BUOYS STILL SHOW 7FT SWELL WITH 10 SEC PERIODS. EXPECT THESE SWELLS TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH PROBABLY SOME SUBSIDING SINCE WINDS WILL BE LESS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING GALVESTON BAY AND MAY HAVE JUST PUSHED THROUGH MATAGORDA BAY. FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH TODAY. LATEST HRRR AND WRF ARW/NMM ALL HAVE THE FRONT SLOWLY CREEPING SOUTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 10 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT. CAUTION OR ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. TIDES...ARE STILL ELEVATED ABOUT 1.2 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BUT WINDS HAVE SLACKED OFF RESULTING IN MOST TIDE GAGES NOW SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND IN TIDE LEVELS. OVERALL TIDE LEVELS WILL DECREASE THROUGH MORNING WITH LOW TIDE. HIGH TIDE ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES OF GALVESTON AND BOLIVAR IS STILL AROUND 6PM THIS EVENING. THINKING THAT TIDES MAY ONLY BE ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD MAKE THE OVERALL WATER LEVEL ABOUT 3 FEET ABOVE MLLW INSTEAD OF 3.5 FEET RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TIDE LEVELS AND ISSUE ADVISORIES IF NEEDED BUT MORE CONFIDENT IN NOT HAVING AN ADVISORY THIS EVENING. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 47 43 50 47 58 / 90 60 60 50 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 57 50 60 53 63 / 70 40 40 40 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 69 59 66 59 64 / 40 30 30 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...40 AVIATION/MARINE...39 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 411 AM PST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will produce light winds and a strong temperature inversion over the Inland Northwest through early next week. Low clouds and fog will become common by Sunday or Monday. Air stagnation may also lead to areas of decreased air quality. A frontal system is expected to bring a chance of wintry precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Today and Tonight: High pressure continues to intensify over the Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia. Air Stagnation Advisories remain in effect through noon Monday, and may be extended into midweek once we coordinate with air quality agencies on Monday. Mid-level subsidence will further strengthen the inversion over our region today making for a very difficult temperature forecast. The light winds and cold overnight temperatures will cause many lowland areas to be cooler than yesterday while higher elevations will be several degrees warmer, especially over north central and northeast Washington. Elevations above 3000 feet will have the potential to warm into the 40s this afternoon while nearby valleys may struggle to reach 30. To complicate matters areas of fog and low clouds have expanded over the Palouse, L-C Valley, and portions of northeast Washington. The fog and low clouds will likely expand through mid-morning, and a dense fog advisory may be needed today. Since it is the Thanksgiving weekend, there will be more motorists on the road. As our air mass continues to moisten through evaporative and sublimation processes, fog and low clouds should continue to increase tonight. Places that have fog and low clouds in the evening and through the night will remain warmer than spots that keep clear skies. So low temperature forecasting will be a big challenge with some big bust potential. Sunday and Monday: Fog and low clouds will become more widespread Sunday into Monday. Look for our diurnal temperature spreads to shrink as more of the Basin and surrounding lowlands becomes enshrouded in low clouds. Dreary and chilly winter weather we come to expect this time of year. /GKoch Tuesday through Friday...Models are in good agreement of the ridge shifting east allowing a couple short wave troughs to pass through the Inland NW. The main challenge during this forecast period will be precipitation type. Initially...cold air is expected to be in place allowing for snow levels down to the valley floors. The first system arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models do not agree on how well this will hold together by the time it reaches North Idaho as energy splits as it moves inland. Confidence is highest for the Cascades receiving light to moderate snow amounts with a chance for light snow across the remainder of the area. There is a warm nose that extends from Moses Lake to Ritzville south to the Oregon border which could bring a brief period of freezing rain to these areas. Given the first system is weak with little wind...is not expected to completely mix out the cold air in the valleys. This leads to the next precip type challenge Wednesday night into Thursday when the next system arrives. Mild southwest flow Thursday morning result in the models warming 850mb temps to 1-3C or warmer from Moses Lake to Deer Park to Sandpoint southward while cold air damming into the East Slopes keeps cold air in place. This should result in snow for the East Slopes as well as the Okanogan Valley and Highlands and possibly Wenatchee. Pockets of freezing rain are possible in the Columbia Basin, Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area, and northern valleys depending on how much low level sub-freezing air remains and timing of precip. If precip holds off til Thursday afternoon then this threat would be greatly diminished. Overall confidence in freezing rain this far out is low but the potential exists. Southeast winds on the palouse should mix out the cold air quickly resulting in just rain for Pullman and Lewiston. JW && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: Fog and low clouds over the Palouse and Lower Columbia Basin continues to expand early this morning. As of 3 AM, the latest satellite trends (fog channel) suggest fog or low stratus will move into Moses Lake by sunrise. With the light wind regime and strong inversion, Pullman could be in 1/2 mile or less for a good portion of the day. The NAM boundary layer moisture prog and the HRRR surface visibility prog suggests KGEG and KSFF will be on the fringe of the fog bank today with fog overspreading the metro tonight. Even the highest resolution models struggle with shallow surface moisture so forecast confidence is low. /GKoch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 29 15 28 17 29 19 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Coeur d`Alene 30 17 29 18 31 19 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Pullman 27 19 30 21 32 21 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Lewiston 28 22 31 23 33 24 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Colville 35 13 32 16 32 17 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Sandpoint 30 17 30 18 31 19 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Kellogg 30 14 32 17 32 20 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Moses Lake 29 19 28 21 29 20 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Wenatchee 33 22 28 22 29 21 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Omak 30 18 27 19 28 19 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Monday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle. WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Monday for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains- Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau- Wenatchee Area. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
536 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .AVIATION... VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST A FEW SHRA MOVING IN FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. DECIDED TO KEEP VCSH OUT AT THIS TIME AS THE SHRA ARE FORECAST TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS. LOW PROB OF BRIEF MVFR, THAT`S IT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT WHILE LIKELY BECOMING N-NW ALONG ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AS PER HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE. ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NE AT 10-15 KT AT ALL SITES WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. /GREGORIA && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015/ DISCUSSION... A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO OUR NORTH WITH A CONTINUED LOOSENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS SUCH, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT STILL JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVING INLAND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW HAS GENERATED RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS REPORTED TODAY AT SOUTH BEACH ALONG WITH SEVERAL RESCUES. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN HOW PRONOUNCED THE TROUGH WILL BE AND IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GET. GFS MOVES THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THU WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THIS FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THU AND STALLS IT OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. EITHER WAY...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A STEADY INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE AND DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SLIGHT COOLING/DRYING IS POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONT`S PUSH SOUTH IS HIGH. CERTAINLY THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT COOL AIR IS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. /GREGORIA AVIATION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND IS ALREADY SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRETTY NON-EXISTENT TODAY AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TREND WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE, BUT A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND MOVING QUICKLY ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON ANY OF THE TAF SITES. MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID WEEK WITH WEAKENING SPEEDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO SLOWLY DECLINE. HOWEVER, HAZARDOUS SEAS TO AROUND 7 FT ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF STREAM THROUGH TOMORROW. /GREGORIA && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 70 82 72 83 / 20 10 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 70 82 73 82 / 20 20 20 20 MIAMI 70 82 72 84 / 20 20 20 20 NAPLES 63 83 66 85 / 10 0 0 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
230 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .UPDATE... THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 INDIANA WILL LIE BETWEEN A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH TODAY. AS THE WEEKEND GOES ON...THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND TAKE CONTROL OF HOOSIER WEATHER. FROM MONDAY INTO A WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS INDIANA WHILE MOVING NORTH AND THEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT TO END THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF KSDF WITH RAIN PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ENTIRE AREA SEEING THE CHILLY N/NE FLOW. 15Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS ONCE AGAIN ON TEMPERATURES AND FINE TUNING POPS AS RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST. HRRR/WRF GUIDANCE AGAIN HAS A NICE HANDLE ON PRECIP COVERAGE WITH PRECIP ENDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT A SHALLOW SUBFREEZING LAYER DEVELOPING BETWEEN 1-2KFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS MAY BRIEFLY ENABLE GRAUPEL TO PERIODICALLY MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN AS IT ENDS. WILL NOT INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND EXPECTED LOCALIZED COVERAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE LITTLE IF NOT FALL A COUPLE DEGREES LATER TODAY. HAVE TRENDED HOURLY TEMPS CLOSER TO LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAW SURFACE TEMPS OFF THE RAP FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH MOST AREAS HOVERING BETWEEN THE UPPER 30S AND MID 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. STEADY N/NE WINDS WILL ADD TO THE RAW DAMP FEELING PRESENT. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 THE IMMEDIATE PROBLEM IS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT RAIN RETREATING SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT...BUT THE GFS BRINGS SOME BACK LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GFS COULD BE RIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT IS A POTENTIAL AREA FOR INERTIAL INSTABILITY. THE MODEL HAS NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY WHICH WOULD REFLECT THIS AT 18Z TOMORROW. THE LAST TIME SOMETHING SIMILAR HAPPENED THE GFS WAS CORRECT. FOR THAT REASON THE MAV POPS THAT RELY ON IT WILL BE USED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AFTER SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW PROGRESSIVELY GREATER DIFFERENCES DEVELOPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. CONSENSUS WILL BE USED TO GRAPPLE WITH THIS. SKIES ARE APT TO STAY CLOUDY THANKS TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL STUFF COMING OUT OF THE TROUGH ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES EXCEPT FOR THE MAV COLDER AT SOME PLACES SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON WHATS BEEN OCCURRING AROUND THE FRONT IT LOOKS BETTER THEN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 224 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TO START THE LONG TERM. A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH COULD BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BUT WARM ADVECTION BEGINS DURING THE DAY AND THEN SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM BY A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM THURSDAY ON. SUPERBLEND CAPTURED THE PATTERN WELL WITH NO NEED FOR MAJOR CHANGES. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1148 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 MAINLY IFR AT ALL SITES BUT POSSIBLY KLAF FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF AS WELL. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT KLAF AROUND 3-6Z BUT WILL NOT REACH KBMG UNTIL AROUND 15Z...WITH KHUF AND KIND AROUND 9-12Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JK NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM....CP AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
100 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 LIGHT RAIN WILL END BY EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SOME IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 20S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 RATHER BENIGN NEAR/SHORT TERM PD AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ENEWD THROUGH OHIO VALLEY. FINAL VESTIGES OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE /ESPECIALLY WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR UVM OWING TO LOCAL PRESSURE TENDENCY/DERIVATIVE ON I285-290K SURFACES EJECTING FROM ECNTL ILLINOIS TO ALONG AND S OF ROUTE 24 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AM AND WILL ACCOUNT WITH SEPARATE PREFIRST PD. WHILE SOME RAPL MIX ACROSS NERN IL EARLIER THIS EVENING AND SOME UP AWOS ACRS SRN LWR MI...HAVE MAINTAINED ALL LIQUID AS MAGNITUDE AND DEPTH OF MAX TW ALOFT GREATER ACRS CWA PER RAP ANALYSIS...CERTAINLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE SNOW MIX PER RELATIVE WARM CLOUD TOP TEMPS SUGGESTING LACK OF/OR AT LEAST QUESTIONABLE ICE CRYSTAL NUCLEATION PER AMDAR AND RAP SOUNDINGS. ALL BUT FAR SERN THIRD OF CWA DIFFICULT TO MEASURE ESPECIALLY BYND 15 UTC AS FEATURE WEAKENS/PUSHES EWD WHILE FOCUS SAGS SEWD AS INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINS WITH DVM ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGE STRENGTHENING/BUILDING EWD THROUGH CNTL LWR MI THROUGH THE DAY. HELD LINE ON TEMPS GIVEN ANTICIPATED LAGGARD CLOUD COVER WITH AFTERNOON PARTIAL CLEARING RELEGATED PRIMARILY NORTH OF ROUTE 24. POOR INSOLATION OPPORTUNITY AMID PERSISTENT 925MB CAA/LOW SOLAR ZENITH ANGLE/SHORT DURATION OF SHORTWAVE FLUX. SLIGHT LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS FOR SUN AM AS WELL...INLINE WITH GUIDANCE...ACCENTUATING N/S GRADIENT AS NORTHERN CWA MOST LIKELY AND MORE READILY TO DECOUPLE PER PROXIMAL SOUTHERN RIDGE PERIPHERY...AS WELL AS REMOVE MARINE LAYER BLEED IN AS OFFSHORE/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FAVORS A COLD KBEH. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 SUNDAY STILL LOOKING RELATIVELY PLEASANT...THOUGH SEASONABLY COOL. SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL RIDGE/AVA WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION AND SUPPORT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE/HIGH PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 1C SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW THEN PINWHEELS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH WITH A DECENT SWATH OF 290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH ARRIVAL OF MIDLEVEL CVA BULLSEYE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT TIMING/TRACK OF EJECTING LOW BUT KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/MODERATE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT...A FEW TENTHS AT BEST GIVEN RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT OF MEDIOCRE FORCING AND MOISTURE. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LIFTING CYCLONE TO BRING SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE HELP OF WARM LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TIMING/TRACK ISSUES LEAD TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARM SURFACE TEMPS BUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES COULD SEE A QUICK DUSTING WEDNESDAY MORNING IF BETTER PRECIP RATES ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE. KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY BUT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SCT SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IF SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TO END THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 DRY AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNGLIDE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL HELP CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...SKIPPER VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 LIGHT RAIN WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SOME IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 20S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 RATHER BENIGN NEAR/SHORT TERM PD AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ENEWD THROUGH OHIO VALLEY. FINAL VESTIGES OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE /ESPECIALLY WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR UVM OWING TO LOCAL PRESSURE TENDENCY/DERIVATIVE ON I285-290K SURFACES EJECTING FROM ECNTL ILLINOIS TO ALONG AND S OF ROUTE 24 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AM AND WILL ACCOUNT WITH SEPARATE PREFIRST PD. WHILE SOME RAPL MIX ACROSS NERN IL EARLIER THIS EVENING AND SOME UP AWOS ACRS SRN LWR MI...HAVE MAINTAINED ALL LIQUID AS MAGNITUDE AND DEPTH OF MAX TW ALOFT GREATER ACRS CWA PER RAP ANALYSIS...CERTAINLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE SNOW MIX PER RELATIVE WARM CLOUD TOP TEMPS SUGGESTING LACK OF/OR AT LEAST QUESTIONABLE ICE CRYSTAL NUCLEATION PER AMDAR AND RAP SOUNDINGS. ALL BUT FAR SERN THIRD OF CWA DIFFICULT TO MEASURE ESPECIALLY BYND 15 UTC AS FEATURE WEAKENS/PUSHES EWD WHILE FOCUS SAGS SEWD AS INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINS WITH DVM ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGE STRENGTHENING/BUILDING EWD THROUGH CNTL LWR MI THROUGH THE DAY. HELD LINE ON TEMPS GIVEN ANTICIPATED LAGGARD CLOUD COVER WITH AFTERNOON PARTIAL CLEARING RELEGATED PRIMARILY NORTH OF ROUTE 24. POOR INSOLATION OPPORTUNITY AMID PERSISTENT 925MB CAA/LOW SOLAR ZENITH ANGLE/SHORT DURATION OF SHORTWAVE FLUX. SLIGHT LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS FOR SUN AM AS WELL...INLINE WITH GUIDANCE...ACCENTUATING N/S GRADIENT AS NORTHERN CWA MOST LIKELY AND MORE READILY TO DECOUPLE PER PROXIMAL SOUTHERN RIDGE PERIPHERY...AS WELL AS REMOVE MARINE LAYER BLEED IN AS OFFSHORE/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FAVORS A COLD KBEH. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 SUNDAY STILL LOOKING RELATIVELY PLEASANT...THOUGH SEASONABLY COOL. SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL RIDGE/AVA WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION AND SUPPORT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE/HIGH PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 1C SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW THEN PINWHEELS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH WITH A DECENT SWATH OF 290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH ARRIVAL OF MIDLEVEL CVA BULLSEYE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT TIMING/TRACK OF EJECTING LOW BUT KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/MODERATE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT...A FEW TENTHS AT BEST GIVEN RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT OF MEDIOCRE FORCING AND MOISTURE. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LIFTING CYCLONE TO BRING SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE HELP OF WARM LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TIMING/TRACK ISSUES LEAD TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARM SURFACE TEMPS BUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES COULD SEE A QUICK DUSTING WEDNESDAY MORNING IF BETTER PRECIP RATES ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE. KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY BUT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SCT SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IF SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TO END THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 655 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 PRIMARY CHANGE TO MAINTAIN LOWERED CONDITIONS A BIT LONGER ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AS OHIO VALLEY FRONTAL WAVE SLOW TO TRACK NEWD. LONGER DURATION CIGS BLO 2KFT AT KSBN. IFR CIGS INTO MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY FUELING/ALTERNATE CRITERIA A BIT LONGER AT KFWA. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...MURPHY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1200 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 INDIANA WILL LIE BETWEEN A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH TODAY. AS THE WEEKEND GOES ON...THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND TAKE CONTROL OF HOOSIER WEATHER. FROM MONDAY INTO A WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS INDIANA WHILE MOVING NORTH AND THEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT TO END THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF KSDF WITH RAIN PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ENTIRE AREA SEEING THE CHILLY N/NE FLOW. 15Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS ONCE AGAIN ON TEMPERATURES AND FINE TUNING POPS AS RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST. HRRR/WRF GUIDANCE AGAIN HAS A NICE HANDLE ON PRECIP COVERAGE WITH PRECIP ENDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT A SHALLOW SUBFREEZING LAYER DEVELOPING BETWEEN 1-2KFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS MAY BRIEFLY ENABLE GRAUPEL TO PERIODICALLY MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN AS IT ENDS. WILL NOT INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND EXPECTED LOCALIZED COVERAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE LITTLE IF NOT FALL A COUPLE DEGREES LATER TODAY. HAVE TRENDED HOURLY TEMPS CLOSER TO LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAW SURFACE TEMPS OFF THE RAP FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH MOST AREAS HOVERING BETWEEN THE UPPER 30S AND MID 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. STEADY N/NE WINDS WILL ADD TO THE RAW DAMP FEELING PRESENT. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 THE IMMEDIATE PROBLEM IS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT RAIN RETREATING SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT...BUT THE GFS BRINGS SOME BACK LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GFS COULD BE RIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT IS A POTENTIAL AREA FOR INERTIAL INSTABILITY. THE MODEL HAS NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY WHICH WOULD REFLECT THIS AT 18Z TOMORROW. THE LAST TIME SOMETHING SIMILAR HAPPENED THE GFS WAS CORRECT. FOR THAT REASON THE MAV POPS THAT RELY ON IT WILL BE USED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AFTER SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW PROGRESSIVELY GREATER DIFFERENCES DEVELOPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. CONSENSUS WILL BE USED TO GRAPPLE WITH THIS. SKIES ARE APT TO STAY CLOUDY THANKS TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL STUFF COMING OUT OF THE TROUGH ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES EXCEPT FOR THE MAV COLDER AT SOME PLACES SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON WHATS BEEN OCCURRING AROUND THE FRONT IT LOOKS BETTER THEN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW PASSES OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THAT POINT...AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1148 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 MAINLY IFR AT ALL SITES BUT POSSIBLY KLAF FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF AS WELL. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT KLAF AROUND 3-6Z BUT WILL NOT REACH KBMG UNTIL AROUND 15Z...WITH KHUF AND KIND AROUND 9-12Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JK NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
117 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 ...updated short and long... .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday) ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 Have been watching radar trends over the last few hours across south- central Kansas. The HRRR and ECMWF show some additional snow showers possible this afternoon developing on the 850-hPa baroclinic zone. As a result, have extended the winter weather advisory across south-central Kansas until 6 pm. There is a chance that this advisory might run a little long and might need to be canceled earlier if WSR-88D trends bear this out. Otherwise, much of the area will remain dry. The atmosphere will remain fairly saturated through the overnight that freezing drizzle looks fairly likely. Minimums should be in the 20s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday) ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 Southwest Kansas will still remain in a favorable jet streak position for some light snow showers tomorrow night. In addition to dynamic lift aloft, there will be a 850-700-hPa baroclinic zone passing through. Some low level isentropic lift should lead to some snow showers across the northern zones late Sunday night and into Monday morning. Have issued a winter weather advisory up north since light snow amounts (1-3") are possible and people still could be traveling back home from holiday travels. Current snow amounts may be a tad high, but still feel that the I70 corridor could become slick again. After this event, we enter a dry period with dry northerly flow aloft and weak high pressure at the sfc. There might be some showers in about a week from now along a front. The superblend pops look fine for now. Temperatures will moderate through the end of the weekend and into the upcoming business week. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 Poor flight conditions all around. Not a period for VFR/GA pilots. MVFR/IFR conditions today will continue and will decrease to LIFR as cigs lower along with freezing drizzle tonight. Winds will be N/NE 5-15 kt. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 21 32 26 35 / 10 30 60 10 GCK 20 31 25 33 / 10 30 70 10 EHA 20 34 23 36 / 10 30 40 10 LBL 21 34 25 36 / 10 30 40 10 HYS 21 28 26 33 / 10 60 80 50 P28 26 34 28 38 / 10 30 60 20 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ066- 080-081-088>090. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for KSZ030-031-043>046. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Sugden AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1243 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 945 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MUCH OF THE LEADING EDGE OF ECHOES OBSERVED ON RADAR ARE NOT RESULTING IN RAIN AT THE SURFACE...EVEN WHERE THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL RETURNS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. LOWER LAYERS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ALLOWING RAIN AT THE SURFACE BUT THE RAIN WILL BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS. HAVE UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO SLOW THE BEGIN TIMES OF THE RAIN. ALSO MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY NDFD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING... REACHING THE OHIO RIVER AS OF THIS UPDATE. WE ARE ALSO IN A LULL OF SORTS UNTIL MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY/TN REACHES US LATER THIS MORNING...TO MID DAY. HRRR HAS MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS MOVING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. UNTIL THEN EXPECT MORE SCATTERED TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. EARLY MORNING UPDATE MAKES ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS AND ZONES FOR LATEST THOUGHTS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...OR KDAY BEFORE TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE SFC BOUNDARY ONLY INCHES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD FROM THERE...MANAGING TO DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT COMPLETELY. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT KEEPING THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION ECHOS IS PRODUCING MAINLY SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE KENTUCKY MESONET IT APPEARS THAT A STATION OR TWO ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST HAVE MANAGED TO SQUEAK OUT AS MUCH AS A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH THUS FAR THIS MORNING. EXPECT A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WILL DO THE SAME BEFORE THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MANAGED TO EXIT TO THE EAST A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 40S IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF REBOUNDING AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. RAIN DUE TO A CONTINUOUS MOISTURE FEED AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. FURTHER WEST...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...IT IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN...ALLOWING A SFC LOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THIS SFC LOW WILL PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY EVENING...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NEWD...THE UPPER TROUGH GETS ELONGATED BACK TOWARD THE SW SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC FRONT ALLOWING SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...THIS IS ALSO WHERE MODELS DIFFERENCES EMERGE. THE GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EXTENDING PRECIP NW INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/S SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS BUT STILL KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS OR JUST ABOVE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DROPPING TO AROUND 50 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT THEN QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 20S/NEAR 30 AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE TN AND VA BORDERS LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL. THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE INITIAL RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS FIRST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...JVM/HAL AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1134 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPES. AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...IT SEEMS TO BE MAKING A BIT OF HEADWAY TO THE EAST INTO THE ROCKIES IN THE SHORT TERM AND MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSOLIDATING ON THE EVENTUAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW. MODELS INDICATE THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE EVENING. WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING HUGE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE WRF DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT THE HRRR IS STINGY WITH PRECIPITATION TODAY...FOR EXAMPLE. A DRY PUNCH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP TYPE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES THE DRY LAYER...THE GFS DOES INDICATE THAT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SO I DID STICK IN A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW ALONG WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. NOW THE EXCEPTION THIS EVENING WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE COULD SATURATE EARLIER...AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO I KEPT A FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET POTENTIAL IN FOR THIS AREA AS THE WARM LAYER WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN ZERO AND TWO DEGREES. I FIGURE THAT I AM COVERED WITH THE FREEZING RAIN IF WE HAPPEN TO NOT BE SATURATED IN THE LAYER OF POTENTIAL DENDRITES AND GET FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD. I DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH INCLUDING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TYPES HERE...SO I WILL TRY TO KEEP IT SIMPLE. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION AT ALL FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO HIRES NMM EAST FOR HIGHS AND SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT...AS IT APPEARS TO BE DOING OKAY FOR LOWS THIS MORNING (I RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST). .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 640 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 THE BIGGEST CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS WILL FOCUS ON AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE OUTLOOK AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND EVENTUALLY ANOTHER SNOW STORM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BECOMES ELONGATED AND POSITIVELY TILTED BY SUNDAY MORNING STRETCHING FROM NEVADA INTO WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE ROTATING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS DEBATE JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL GO...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL INDICATE MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT ON SUNDAY SHOULD PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AT ALL. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT TO THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES FIRST BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD. MADE AN ATTEMPT TO SHOW THIS SLIGHT TRANSITION BY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER TO SNOW IN THE FORECAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO BASED ON THESE PRECIPITATION TYPES. WHEN ITS ALL SAID AND DONE...THIS COULD BE THE LARGEST SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO FAR THIS YEAR. CURRENT SNOW TOTALS ARE SHAPING UP TO BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA..WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT FOR CERTAIN AS THERE ARE STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO CONSIDER. TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE AREA...HOW FAST WILL THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW SNOWFALL INSTEAD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR FREEZING OR POSSIBLY WARMER. ALL OF THIS COULD DRASTICALLY REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. AS FOR HEADLINES WITH THIS EVENT...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO WAIT TO ISSUE HEADLINES SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID NOT WANT TO BOX FUTURE SHIFTS IN WITH HEADLINES FOR LATER TIME PERIODS IF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE WEEKEND TURNS OUT TO BE A BIGGER DEAL. BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER PATTERN TURNS FAIRLY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO HIGHS IN THE 30S TO EVEN 40 DEGREES AT TIMES. OF COURSE...THIS TOO COULD BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON RESULTANT SNOW COVER FROM THE MONDAY STORM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THIS TAF FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DETERIORATING CEILINGS ARE FORECAST THIS EVENINGTHROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SOME QUESTION REMAINS WITH TIMING OF THE SUB VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER CONCERN...MAINLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...LIES WITH -FZDZ POTENTIAL. AT THIS POINT...KEPT THE MENTION OUT AS NOT ALL MODELS AGREE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW...BUT IS SOMETHING TO CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN LONG TERM...SALTZMAN AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
358 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL NOT FAR FROM AVERAGE FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER. THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY END THIS EVENING WHEN DRIER MID-LEVEL DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE PATCHY FOG ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS CLOUD COVER...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING THAT MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO QUICK TO CLEAR SKIES OUT. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVELS WILL DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY...THERE WILL BE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. NAM BUFKIT AND THE HRRR CAPTURE THIS MOISTURE...BUT THIS GUIDANCE IS SOMETIMES TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN THIS CASE...THE NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS THE FORECAST WILL FAVOR THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS MAY REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF CLOUDS POSSIBLE AN ALL AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER IS LOW. THIS WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPERATURES...SINCE CLOUD COVER WOULD PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH A PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ELSEWHERE LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S...BUT POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING. ALSO...IF SKIES DO CLEAR OUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN SPOTS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...WITH MODEST DAYTIME MIXING LIKELY TO MIX OUT THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MOST GUIDANCE HANGS ONTO AT LEAST SOME LOW MOISTURE...AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FORECASTS SOME LIGHT QPF. MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER LIGHT QPF CAN SOMETIMES BE A SIGNAL BY MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THERE WILL BE LOW STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT WIND DIRECTION FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL... ONLY ABOUT 0.15 INCH PW... KEEP CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE COOL AND DRY AIR WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EACH DAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS WILL PROMOTE LOWS IN THE 20S... AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AS LOW- LEVEL RETURN FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO LAKE ERIE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WILL HAVE A RAPIDLY OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW NEARLY BENEATH IT...AND A POCKET OF COLD AIR SWEEPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PW EXCEEDING AN INCH...WILL PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE FOR RAINFALL STARTING MID MORNING ON TUESDAY. EXPECT A STEADY RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR AN INCH ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN TO A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO RISE ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE CUT-OFF LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW... WITH AN AMPLE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE WARM FRONT / DEVELOPING LLJ SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS A BAND OF RAINFALL THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY. THE BY TUESDAY EVENING OR INTO WEDNESDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK AND TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN IMPROVING... THERE REMAINS ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC. THE ENSEMBLES / ESPECIALLY THE EC ENSEMBLES/ DEPICT AN INTERESTING BI- MODAL DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING... WITH ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY LIKE THE GFS AND THE OTHER HALF HOLD IT BACK UNTIL WEDNESDAY LIKE THE OPERATIONAL EC... WITH FEW ENSEMBLES IN THE MIDDLE GROUND. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TIMING... BY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND THEN SETTLE EAST OF THE LAKES INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CUT- OFF NATURE OF THIS LOW... THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL COLD AIR TAP FROM HIGHER LATITUDES... AND MODELS ARE ONLY DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO ABOUT -4 TO -7C IN THE CORE OF THE LOW. THESE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE 48F LAKE SURFACES... HOWEVER... EXPECT MAINLY THE HIGHER HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT COULD REALLY SEE LAKE SHOWERS MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT... IT IS NOT LOOKING GREAT FOR BUFFALO TO SEE ITS FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH THIS STORM... WHICH TAKES US THROUGH DECEMBER 2ND AND 3RD (ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE IT OUT YET). THE RECORD LATEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT KBUF IS DECEMBER 3RD (WHICH OCCURRED IN 1899). IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH THIS STORM SYSTEM WITHOUT MEASURING 0.1 INCHES OF SNOW... IT COULD ACTUALLY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE GET ANOTHER CHANCE AT SNOW. AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM... RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE GREAT LAKES NORTH TO THE HUDSON BAY FROM THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES (GEFS THROUGH 360HRS AND THE CFS) INDICATE THAT THIS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A FAIRLY PERSISTENT FEATURE THAT COULD LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE 2ND OR 3RD WEEK OF DECEMBER. SHOULD THIS COME TO FRUITION... WE WOULD SEE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL... AND ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR REMAINING AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION... WITH PERHAPS ONLY A FEW MARGINAL CHANCES AT PICKING UP SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AT ABOUT 2 K FT. IFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER AT JHW...BUT CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WILL DEPEND ON HOW EXTENSIVE THIS AREA OF CLOUDS IS. IF IT DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD BE AROUND 1K FT...AND EITHER IN THE IFR OR MVFR CATEGORY. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THAT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FOR TOO LONG THEN RADIATION FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH IFR OR LOWER VSBY/CIGS POSSIBLE. LOW MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT IN MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO (ROC/IAG) WHERE THE STRATUS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT...PATCHY IFR/MVFR CIGS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RAIN. MAINLY MVFR. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY AND AND THEN DRIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MID WEEK WHICH WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE WATERS. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...APFFEL SHORT TERM...WCH LONG TERM...WCH AVIATION...APFFEL MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
125 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS BUT NOT FAR FROM AVERAGE FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH MORE RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF. RADAR SHOWS SOME DRIZZLE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD LAST UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS CLOUD COVER...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING THAT MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO QUICK TO CLEAR SKIES OUT. MID LEVEL DRYING IS JUST ON THE DOORSTEP TO THE NORTH...AND THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS BY THIS EVENING. THE PROBLEM IS SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION WHICH IS BEING AIDED BY LAKE MOISTURE AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL. NAM BUFKIT AND THE HRRR CAPTURE THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT OFTEN THIS GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR NOW THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE IS VERIFYING BETTER SO WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL NORTH TO SOUTH CLEARING TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY REMAINING CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER IS LOW GIVEN THE SHALLOW LOW MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A VERY DRY MID-LEVEL. THIS WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPERATURES...SINCE CLOUD COVER WOULD PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT A PARTIAL CLEARING IN MOST AREAS...SO WILL FORECAST SOME COOLING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FULL CLEARING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS. ALSO...IF SKIES DO CLEAR OUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...WITH MODEST DAYTIME MIXING LIKELY TO MIX OUT THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO CLOUD COVER AND EVEN FORECAST SOME LIGHT QPF. MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER LIGHT QPF CAN SOMETIMES BE A SIGNAL BY MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS. DURING THIS TIME FRAME... A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM NEAR THE HUDSON BAY TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE NORTHERLY TURNING EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP A STREAM OF VERY DRY AIR/ PW VALUES DOWN TO 0.15 INCHES/ MAKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL/ A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40/ BUT NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS WILL PROMOTE LOWS IN THE 20S... AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RUN CLOSER TO NORMAL AS LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM (MORE ON THAT BELOW). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE CUT-OFF LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW... WITH AN AMPLE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE WARM FRONT / DEVELOPING LLJ SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS A BAND OF RAINFALL THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY. THE BY TUESDAY EVENING OR INTO WEDNESDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK AND TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN IMPROVING... THERE REMAINS ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC. THE ENSEMBLES / ESPECIALLY THE EC ENSEMBLES/ DEPICT AN INTERESTING BI- MODAL DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING... WITH ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY LIKE THE GFS AND THE OTHER HALF HOLD IT BACK UNTIL WEDNESDAY LIKE THE OPERATIONAL EC... WITH FEW ENSEMBLES IN THE MIDDLE GROUND. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TIMING... BY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND THEN SETTLE EAST OF THE LAKES INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CUT- OFF NATURE OF THIS LOW... THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL COLD AIR TAP FROM HIGHER LATITUDES... AND MODELS ARE ONLY DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO ABOUT -4 TO -7C IN THE CORE OF THE LOW. THESE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE 48F LAKE SURFACES... HOWEVER... EXPECT MAINLY THE HIGHER HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT COULD REALLY SEE LAKE SHOWERS MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT... IT IS NOT LOOKING GREAT FOR BUFFALO TO SEE ITS FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH THIS STORM... WHICH TAKES US THROUGH DECEMBER 2ND AND 3RD (ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE IT OUT YET). THE RECORD LATEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT KBUF IS DECEMBER 3RD (WHICH OCCURRED IN 1899). IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH THIS STORM SYSTEM WITHOUT MEASURING 0.1 INCHES OF SNOW... IT COULD ACTUALLY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE GET ANOTHER CHANCE AT SNOW. AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM... RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE GREAT LAKES NORTH TO THE HUDSON BAY FROM THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES (GEFS THROUGH 360HRS AND THE CFS) INDICATE THAT THIS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A FAIRLY PERSISTENT FEATURE THAT COULD LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE 2ND OR 3RD WEEK OF DECEMBER. SHOULD THIS COME TO FRUITION... WE WOULD SEE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL... AND ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR REMAINING AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION... WITH PERHAPS ONLY A FEW MARGINAL CHANCES AT PICKING UP SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXPECT A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AT ABOUT 2 K FT. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS SHOULD STAY SCATTERED TONIGHT...HOWEVER IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AT JHW...AND MAY ALSO LAST AT BUF/IAG/ROC IF A LOW STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THAT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FOR TOO LONG THEN RADIATION FOG WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY VERY SUBTLE FEATURES SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST MUCH IN ADVANCE. LOW MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT IN MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO (ROC/IAG) WHERE THE STRATUS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH WINDS AND WAVES HAVE NOW FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISHING. THE FLAT WAVE ACTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH SHORT TERM...CHURCH LONG TERM...CHURCH AVIATION...APFFEL MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
538 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH MIDWEEK...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... COLD FRONT AT 1930Z STRETCHES FROM SOUTH OF KPIT TO NEAR KAOO TO NEAR KMDT. WIDESPREAD LARGE SCALE FORCING...ALBEIT RELATIVELY WEAK...ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHEAST AS FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NEXT WAVE PROGGED TO SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. DID TAPER OFF SHOWERS TO DRIZZLE FROM THE NE GOING TOWARD 00Z...WITH THE SW CONTINUING TO SEE A STEADIER LIGHT RAIN. RAIN LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE SW...THOUGH COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE THIS EVE BEFORE A STEADIER LIGHT RAIN WORKS EASTWARD WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE ALONG THE MASON/DIXON LINE. NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF CWA SHOULD BE DRY THOUGH AS COLD FRONT AND RAIN BAND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH. TOUGH CALL ACROSS THE NORTH FOR CLOUDS TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN...BUT BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD KEEP LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY MORNING. TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE JUST A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE NE HALF...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH POSS IN THE SW. COLDER AIR ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND TEMPS SLOWLY COOLING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S THIS EVENING. BY SUNRISE...CAA WILL DROP TEMPS NORTH OF I-80 INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SKIES SHOULD BRIGHTEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WORKS SOUTHWARD INTO PA. WILL MAINTAIN A CHC OF LINGERING -SHRA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THRU LATE AM...THEN DRY WX ANTICIPATED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS BTWN 0-4C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE L40S OVR THE N MTNS...TO ARND 50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...STILL JUST A BIT ABV SEASONAL NORMS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FAIR/SEASONABLE WX EXPECTED SUN NITE/MONDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW AND A WEAKENING RIDGE NEGATIVELY TILTED THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF IT AS RAIN. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE N MTNS. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE STORM CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS PA ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT BRISK WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO -SHSN/FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHWEST. LAKE EFFECT -SNSH/FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHES IN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND THE ENSEMBLES DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THIS LENDS ITSELF TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TIMING OF THE PATTERN. HOWEVER A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD...BRINGING DRIER AND FAIR WEATHER. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY TUMULTUOUS WEATHER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL PA AND MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AT THE LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS. IN GENERAL...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF PA...BRINGING OCNL LGT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. MDL SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT IMPLY LIFR/IFR CIGS ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY AT KJST TONIGHT. AT KBFD...A TOUGHER CALL...AS GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE SKIES TO CLEAR AS EARLY AS 03Z OR AS LATE AS DAWN. ELSEWHERE...A DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD YIELD SOMEWHAT HIGHER CIGS OF ARND 1KFT AT KAOO/KUNV AND ARND 3KFT AT LOWER ELEVATION KMDT/KLNS. NEAR TERM MDL SOUNDINGS/HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDS AT KIPT ARND 02Z UPON ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ON NORTHERLY FLOW. CLEARING SKIES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS BUILD IN. HOWEVER...MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS STUBBORN LOW CIGS MAY HOLD ON MOST OF THE DAY AT KAOO AND ESP KJST. OUTLOOK... MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON NIGHT...LOW CIGS/RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SW. TUE-WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. THU...LOW CIGS NW. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES IN AOO YESTERDAY...11/27...BROKE THE RECORD OF 65 DEGREES SET IN 1988. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RXR NEAR TERM...RXR SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1015 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE COAST THIS MORNING. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECT THE INLAND AREA`S COOL TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THE COAST (ROUGHLY GALVESTON ISLAND OVER TO THE HIGH ISLAND AREA)...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN COVERAGE SO FAR...AND NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH DEVELOPMENT TODAY. SO FOR THE UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE AREA`S RAIN CHANCES AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND ASSOCIATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT READINGS. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/ DISCUSSION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION. AVIATION... COLD FRONT WAS JUST REACHING THE COAST AT 11Z SO NOT QUITE REACHING KGLS. EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO SINCE THE FRONT IS QUITE SLOW MOVING. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE SHALLOW FRONTAL SURFACE SO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW CEILINGS. EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN CIGS TO MVFR BUT NOT LIKELY. OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RA/DZ WITH IFR CIGS. KIAH AND KSGR ARE ONLY SITES WITH LIFR CIGS WHICH SHOULD BECOME IFR LATER IN THE MORNING. LOOK FOR IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MIGHT GET SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT NAM/GFS STILL SUPPORT PREVAILING IFR CIGS. 39 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE MAIN ISSUES FACING SE TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH THE SLOWLY RECEDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. ANOTHER... STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH SE TEXAS ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE RAINFALL PATTERN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE EAST SIDE OF METRO HOUSTON AT 4 AM...HAVING PASSED THROUGH KIAH AND KHOU. THE FRONT WAS ALREADY OFF THE COAST AT MATAGORDA BAY. THE 09Z RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. THIS MODEL DOES NOT MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH GALVESTON AND POINTS EAST ALONG THE COAST UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING. IN ANY EVENT...THE RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. BETTER COVERAGE WAS IN ADVANCE OF THE 925 TROUGH WHICH THE HRRR KEEPS BASICALLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR WACO TO JUST WEST OF CALDWELL TODAY AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THAT THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTHWEST...THINK THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LIVINGSTON TO HUNTSVILLE TO NEAR COLUMBUS. THIS WILL CONTRAST TO AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH OR LESS TOWARD THE COAST. LESS OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WENT WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR BOTH PERIODS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT THUNDER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MARINE... BUOYS STILL SHOW 7FT SWELL WITH 10 SEC PERIODS. EXPECT THESE SWELLS TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH PROBABLY SOME SUBSIDING SINCE WINDS WILL BE LESS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING GALVESTON BAY AND MAY HAVE JUST PUSHED THROUGH MATAGORDA BAY. FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH TODAY. LATEST HRRR AND WRF ARW/NMM ALL HAVE THE FRONT SLOWLY CREEPING SOUTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 10 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT. CAUTION OR ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. TIDES...ARE STILL ELEVATED ABOUT 1.2 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BUT WINDS HAVE SLACKED OFF RESULTING IN MOST TIDE GAGES NOW SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND IN TIDE LEVELS. OVERALL TIDE LEVELS WILL DECREASE THROUGH MORNING WITH LOW TIDE. HIGH TIDE ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES OF GALVESTON AND BOLIVAR IS STILL AROUND 6PM THIS EVENING. THINKING THAT TIDES MAY ONLY BE ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD MAKE THE OVERALL WATER LEVEL ABOUT 3 FEET ABOVE MLLW INSTEAD OF 3.5 FEET RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TIDE LEVELS AND ISSUE ADVISORIES IF NEEDED BUT MORE CONFIDENT IN NOT HAVING AN ADVISORY THIS EVENING. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 47 43 50 47 58 / 60 60 60 50 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 57 50 60 53 63 / 60 40 40 40 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 72 59 66 59 64 / 50 30 30 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
929 AM PST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A REX BLOCK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN B.C. AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE DRY PATTERN IS LOOKING LIKE IT MAY START TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN INITIAL DYING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO BECOME EVEN MORE ACTIVE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DECENT SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...A REX BLOCK CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN B.C. AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN DECENT 30 TO 40 KT NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST AND BRISK OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS...CURRENTLY AROUND 7 MB THROUGH THE GORGE. THUS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH A BIT MORE WIND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND STRONGER WINDS IN THE GORGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ANOTHER MORNING WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG OR FREEZING FOG IN THE AREA. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME COLUMBIA BASIN STRATUS DEVELOP IN THE EAST END OF THE GORGE. THE COOL DRY AIR MASS HAS A LOT OF TEMPS IN THE 20S THIS MORNING...WITH EUGENE AND CORVALLIS AT 19 SO FAR THIS MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT THEN THE BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE THE WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A GAP FLOW EVENT...ESPECIALLY CONCENTRATED THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE MORE LOW CLOUDS NEAR HOOD RIVER...AND WE WILL START TO SEE MORE AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL...SO LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST 3 MORNINGS OR SO. AN EXCEPT MAY BE THAT THE COAST WILL START TO WARM A BIT MONDAY MORNING. MOS HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT LOW...AND WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING CLOSE TO 50 TODAY INLAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE WINDIER AREAS IN THE NORTH. WE MAY START TO LOSE A FEW DEGREES THE NEXT FEW DAYS THOUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE FIRST WEAKENING/SPLITTING SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS HAVE NOW BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO OF MODEL RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING WELL NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND NORTH B.C. COAST. THE WEAKENING/SPLITTING/DYING SOUTHERN END OF A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST MONDAY MORNING...MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE AT THE COAST...DWINDLING INLAND AS THE SYSTEM FALLS APART. WE COULD SEE A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT THE COAST AND ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE...BUT INLAND LOOKS LIKE A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM IS THAT IT WILL AGAIN BE VERY COLD MONDAY MORNING INLAND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL THAT COULD BE MIXED WINTER TYPE PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS IS IN THE GORGE...AND THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE MOSTLY SNOW NEAR HOOD RIVER. BUT SOME THREAT OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS ON THE DRY SIDE...SO AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...AND IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS POINT. FREEZING RAIN LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR HOOD RIVER AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY END AFTER THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES. TOLLESON .LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SPLITTING AND WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE GORGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE PACIFIC SHOWS THAT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC REMAINS ACTIVE AND ENERGETIC WEATHER WISE...SO THE IDEA OF THE MODELS BRINGING IN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SYSTEMS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS REASONABLE. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF SPECIFIC SYSTEMS IS NOT HIGH...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD IS FAIRLY HIGH. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS ONE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER LATE IN THE WEEK. SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT TOO LOW WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...BUT DROP BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. TOLLESON && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EASTERLY GORGE OUTFLOW WILL BRING GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS FOR KTTD. KONP AWOS WILL APPARENTLY BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY AND NOT LIKELY MUCH OF AN ISSUE UNTIL AFTER 30/00Z. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR. WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR THE RWY 10 L/R APPROACHES FROM GUSTY COLUMBIA GORGE OUTFLOW. /JBONK && .MARINE...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. WITH THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE A TAD WEAKER AND SLOWER THEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS SUGGEST. HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THE COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE 15 TO 25 KT SOUTH WINDS AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. THE SECOND FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT WINDS OR POSSIBLY GALES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL AROUND 4 FT WILL SUBSIDE TODAY WITH ANOTHER LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY WITH SEAS LIKELY EXCEEDING 10 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL SUPPORT 10 TO 15 FT SEAS MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TJ /MH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 411 AM PST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will produce light winds and a strong temperature inversion over the Inland Northwest through early next week. Low clouds and fog will become common by Sunday or Monday. Air stagnation may also lead to areas of decreased air quality. A frontal system is expected to bring a chance of wintry precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Today and Tonight: High pressure continues to intensify over the Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia. Air Stagnation Advisories remain in effect through noon Monday, and may be extended into midweek once we coordinate with air quality agencies on Monday. Mid-level subsidence will further strengthen the inversion over our region today making for a very difficult temperature forecast. The light winds and cold overnight temperatures will cause many lowland areas to be cooler than yesterday while higher elevations will be several degrees warmer, especially over north central and northeast Washington. Elevations above 3000 feet will have the potential to warm into the 40s this afternoon while nearby valleys may struggle to reach 30. To complicate matters areas of fog and low clouds have expanded over the Palouse, L-C Valley, and portions of northeast Washington. The fog and low clouds will likely expand through mid-morning, and a dense fog advisory may be needed today. Since it is the Thanksgiving weekend, there will be more motorists on the road. As our air mass continues to moisten through evaporative and sublimation processes, fog and low clouds should continue to increase tonight. Places that have fog and low clouds in the evening and through the night will remain warmer than spots that keep clear skies. So low temperature forecasting will be a big challenge with some big bust potential. Sunday and Monday: Fog and low clouds will become more widespread Sunday into Monday. Look for our diurnal temperature spreads to shrink as more of the Basin and surrounding lowlands becomes enshrouded in low clouds. Dreary and chilly winter weather we come to expect this time of year. /GKoch Tuesday through Friday...Models are in good agreement of the ridge shifting east allowing a couple short wave troughs to pass through the Inland NW. The main challenge during this forecast period will be precipitation type. Initially...cold air is expected to be in place allowing for snow levels down to the valley floors. The first system arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models do not agree on how well this will hold together by the time it reaches North Idaho as energy splits as it moves inland. Confidence is highest for the Cascades receiving light to moderate snow amounts with a chance for light snow across the remainder of the area. There is a warm nose that extends from Moses Lake to Ritzville south to the Oregon border which could bring a brief period of freezing rain to these areas. Given the first system is weak with little wind...is not expected to completely mix out the cold air in the valleys. This leads to the next precip type challenge Wednesday night into Thursday when the next system arrives. Mild southwest flow Thursday morning result in the models warming 850mb temps to 1-3C or warmer from Moses Lake to Deer Park to Sandpoint southward while cold air damming into the East Slopes keeps cold air in place. This should result in snow for the East Slopes as well as the Okanogan Valley and Highlands and possibly Wenatchee. Pockets of freezing rain are possible in the Columbia Basin, Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area, and northern valleys depending on how much low level sub-freezing air remains and timing of precip. If precip holds off til Thursday afternoon then this threat would be greatly diminished. Overall confidence in freezing rain this far out is low but the potential exists. Southeast winds on the palouse should mix out the cold air quickly resulting in just rain for Pullman and Lewiston. JW && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: Fog and low clouds over the Palouse and Lower Columbia Basin continues to expand early this morning. As of 3 AM, the latest satellite trends (fog channel) suggest fog or low stratus will move into Moses Lake by sunrise. With the light wind regime and strong inversion, Pullman could be in 1/2 mile or less for a good portion of the day. The NAM boundary layer moisture prog and the HRRR surface visibility prog suggests KGEG and KSFF will be on the fringe of the fog bank today with fog overspreading the metro tonight. Even the highest resolution models struggle with shallow surface moisture so forecast confidence is low. /GKoch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 29 15 28 17 29 19 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Coeur d`Alene 30 17 29 18 31 19 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Pullman 27 19 30 21 32 21 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Lewiston 28 22 31 23 33 24 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Colville 35 13 32 16 32 17 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Sandpoint 30 17 30 18 31 19 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Kellogg 30 14 32 17 32 20 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Moses Lake 29 19 28 21 29 20 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Wenatchee 33 22 28 22 29 21 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Omak 30 18 27 19 28 19 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Monday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle. WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Monday for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains- Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau- Wenatchee Area. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
337 PM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 SNOW IS TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. POPS TONIGHT ARE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SIERRA MADRES AND SNOWY RANGES (30-40 PERCENT). WITH THE SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH MOST PLACES SEEING SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. ALONG WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A PARCEL OF MIDLVL ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH ALONG SOUTHERN COLORADO AND PUSHING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSTRAINED FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION SUNDAY EVENING/MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND BECOME BREEZY. THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF ARLINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE COULD POSSIBLY SEE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NEXT WEEK AND THE WIND POTENTIAL IN ARLINGTON ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY-SATURDAY: THE MODELS ARE FINALLY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DOES DEPART...THE 800-750MB HEIGHT GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP A BIT BETWEEN CRAIG CO. AND CASPER WY. AS A RESULT...WE BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT IN THAT REGION AND THE SLOPES EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEXT WEEK. THE ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DECENT RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD YIELD TO MAX TEMPERATURES BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL (40S AND 50S). ALTHOUGH...AT THIS POINT THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH STANDARD DEVIATION FROM THE NORM. THIS COULD CHANGE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES. WE DID TWEAK TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE SUPERBLEND AND CLOSER TO THE EKDMOS (NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST SYSTEM ENSEMBLES). THE NEXT COOL DOWN APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PUSHES INTO THE ROCKIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW NEAR CYS. EAST OF THIS AREA...WE WILL SEE BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOP DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS MAY ALSO REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CEILINGS MAY DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AFTER SUNSET DUE TO PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND COOLING TAKING PLACE ABOVE THE CLOUD TOP. WE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED FREEZING FOG YET...BUT THE HRRR DOES SUGGEST THIS MAY OCCUR AROUND CYS/LAR AFTER 6PM. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 NO CONCERNS BASED ON EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITIES. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZF/KC LONG TERM...REC AVIATION...REC FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1110 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. STARTING TO SEE SNOW LET UP IN AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS MOVE INTO CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. OVERALL EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 244 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 TODAY...SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING TODAY WITH A LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...PRODUCING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...WITH GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE. PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AS MENTIONED BY OUR DAY SHIFT TEAM YESTERDAY...SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FROM KIMBALL TO SIDNEY PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. TONIGHT...DRYING OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSAGE BUT STILL COLD WITH THE AIRMASS FULLY ENTRENCHED. SUNDAY...UPPER LOW SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO OUR SOUTH. WITH LIMITED LIFT OF OUR RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS...SNOW CHANCES APPEAR QUITE SLIM. CONTINUED COLD WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY -12 CELSIUS. SUNDAY NIGHT...BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR COUNTIES AS THE 500-300 MB AND 700-500 MB LAYER QUASIGEOSTROPHIC LIFT INDICATES...HOWEVER...LIFT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 244 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 THE TREND IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS WARMER AND DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...TWO VORT MAXES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON MONDAY WHILE IT REMAINS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND SHOULD KEEP CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW THE STRONGEST ENERGY AND LIFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SNOWFALL TO AN END MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WESTERN-MOST VORT MAX. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE 800-700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS. THE COMBINATION OF FEATURES SHOULD BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE WIND PRONE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS. THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ASHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO SPLIT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS NOT EXACTLY A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR PRECIP...BUT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW NEAR CYS. EAST OF THIS AREA...WE WILL SEE BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOP DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS MAY ALSO REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CEILINGS MAY DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AFTER SUNSET DUE TO PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND COOLING TAKING PLACE ABOVE THE CLOUD TOP. WE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED FREEZING FOG YET...BUT THE HRRR DOES SUGGEST THIS MAY OCCUR AROUND CYS/LAR AFTER 6PM. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 244 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 NO CONCERNS BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS AND RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITIES. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...FINCH SHORT TERM...RUBIN LONG TERM...RJM AVIATION...REC FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN