Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/28/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED TODAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY EAST
OF TUCSON. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. PRECIPITATION IS MOVING
HURRIEDLY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT NEARLY 40 MPH. THIS IS KEEPING
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WITH A
FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NV/UT BORDER IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
TODAY WITH NO UPSTREAM FEATURE TO MOVE IT ALONG UNTIL LATER ON THIS
WEEKEND. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWED SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR TRYING TO
WRAP AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...WHICH WOULD AID IN KEEP PRECIP
CONFINED TO NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER TODAY AND TOMORROW. SEEMS LIKE THE
LATEST RUNS OF VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS NOTION
AS WELL. CLOUD COVER AND LOWER THICKNESSES WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS
ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. NO UPDATES THIS
MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/18Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4-9K FT AGL WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD
ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS WEST OF KTUS.
SCT -SHRA AND EVEN SOME EMBEDDED -TSRA PSBL WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF -TSRA
OUT OF TERMINAL FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SW WINDS OF
MAINLY LESS THAN 12 KTS THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SW WINDS 12 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KOLS/KALK/KDUG TERMINALS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
AFTER 27/02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS EVEN SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON AND
ESPECIALLY IN COCHISE COUNTY. LOCATIONS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THERE WILL REMAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE EAST OF
TUCSON TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
WELL. THEN...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK 20-FT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...LATEST HRRR SOLUTION SUGGESTED THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST TODAY. THIS LOOKED LIKE A REASONABLE
SCENARIO BASED ON THE GFS WHICH SHOWED SOME DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO
THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION TODAY. MODELS
CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS UPPER LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATION OVER THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE EJECTING
NORTHEAST. THUS...THE BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TODAY INTO
FRIDAY GENERALLY EAST OF TUCSON. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO THE
WEATHER WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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FRENCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED TODAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY EAST
OF TUCSON. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED TO AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON FROM
NEAR CLIFTON SOUTHWEST TO WILLCOX AND NOGALES. LATEST HRRR SOLUTION
SUGGESTED THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST TODAY. THIS
LOOKED LIKE A REASONABLE SCENARIO BASED ON THE GFS WHICH SHOWED SOME
DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION TODAY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS UPPER LOW REMAINING
NEARLY STATION OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST. THUS...THE BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE TODAY INTO FRIDAY GENERALLY EAST OF TUCSON. THE MOST NOTICEABLE
CHANGES TO THE WEATHER WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4-9K FT AGL WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD
ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS WEST OF KTUS.
SCT -SHRA AND EVEN SOME EMBEDDED -TSRA PSBL THRU ABOUT 27/18Z AT
KOLS/KDUG WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
-TSRA OUT OF TERMINAL FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SW WINDS
OF MAINLY LESS THAN 12 KTS THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 12 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KOLS/KALK/KDUG TERMINALS...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER 28/02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS EVEN SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON AND
ESPECIALLY IN COCHISE COUNTY. LOCATIONS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THERE WILL REMAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE EAST OF
TUCSON TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
WELL. THEN...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK 20-FT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
251 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015
...PERIODS OF SNOW TONIGHT...
...MORE LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY...
BUSY DAY OF WX FOR THIS HOLIDAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS HAVE FINALLY
CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF THE
STATE...WHICH COULD HOLD ON TO SOME FZRA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGHLIGHT IN GENERAL HAVE SO FAR WORKED OUT PRETTY WELL. MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SNOW POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
FROM NOW THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...INCLUDING THE
HI RES WRF...HRRR...AND 18Z NAM...ALL SHOW BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND MOVING FROM SW TO NE DURING THIS TIME.
THE QPF FORECAST IS DIFFICULT SINCE IT IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY
AT THIS POINT EXACTLY WHERE THESE HEAVY MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP...IF
THEY DEVELOP AS PROGGED. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCAL SPOT COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TONIGHT IF ONE OF THESE
BANDS IS PERSISTENT OVER THE SAME AREA. THE HRRR HAS THE SNOW
BULLSEYE OVER THE SRN SANGRES AND SPANISH PEAKS...WHILE THE NAM SETS
UP THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE NRN SANGRES AND FREMONT COUNTY.
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND MODEL CONSENSUS...APPEARS THE BEST BET
FOR SEEING HIGHER SNOW TOTALS WILL BE OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
SRN I-25 CORRIDOR...AS THESE MESOSCALE BANDS TRANSLATE IN FROM THE
SW. HAVE UPGRADED THIS AREA TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT.
EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE
HEAVIEST BAND. RATES OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE BANDS. ELSEWHERE...THE ONGOING FORECAST OF 2-4 INCHES FOR THE
PLAINS AND 4-8 FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS ON TRACK.
FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME ISOLD TO
SCT SHSN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON ANOTHER
WAVE OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE SW...AND THIS WILL
BRING BACK THE THREAT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS TO THE AREA.
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT...MAY HAVE TO EXTEND SOME OF
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND/OR ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW AVG AS H7 TEMPS OF MINUS 15 OR LOWER CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD DOWN THE SRN FRONT RANGE. GFS-BASED GUIDANCE SEEMS A TAD TOO
COLD...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER NAM WHICH STILL BRINGS
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE A VERY
RAW DAY ACROSS THE CWA. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015
FRI NIGHT THE UPR LOW WL BE CENTERED OVR THE GREAT BASIN WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVR THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SFC OVR THE ERN
PLAINS...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS WL CONTINUE ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL. AN UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING
AROUND THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPR LOW INTO WRN CO...SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE SNOW CHANCES ACRS THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MTNS...AND COULD INCREASE SNOWFALL OVR THE NRN SANGRES AND
PIKES PEAK AREA.
ON SAT...THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE UPR
LOW...AND BY AFTERNOON THE UPR DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN PCPN CHANCES...WITH
GENERALLY JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT CHANCES IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THERE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACRS THE ERN
SAN JUAN MTNS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS WL
STILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20 TO LOWER
30S...MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER NR THE MTNS. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH MOSTLY 30S IN
THE UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
SAT NIGHT THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SWRN WY. THIS WL BRING ANOTHER UPR DISTURBANCE THRU WRN CO AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
THEN EXPECTED COME AROUND THE UPR LOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...ONCE
AGAIN ENHANCING PCPN CHANCES OVR THE MTNS...AND THEN OVR ERN AREAS
SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. THE UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD STILL
SEE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE UPR LOW CENTER THEN MOVING INTO
EXTREME NERN CO BY MIDDAY MON...BRINGING WESTERLY WINDS TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD STILL BE SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE UPR LOW IS
THE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO IA BY TUE MORNING...LEAVING
THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA ON TUE NIGHT AND WED...BUT AT THIS
TIME THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HIGH TEMPS BY WED SHOULD BE AROUND AVERAGE. THU IT LOOKS LIKE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015
AT KALS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO GO DOWNHILL AFTER 00Z AS CIGS
START TO DROP AND SCT SHSN MOVE INTO THE VALLEY. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SN ACCUMS BY MORNING.
AT KPUB AND KCOS...IFR TO OCCASIONALLY LIFR AT KCOS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO FRI MORNING. WILL SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT FRI AFTERNOON... BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHSN IS
EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRI EVE. KPUB ALSO WILL SEE MVFR
TO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODT SN POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. TAF SITES SHOULD BE MVFR TO VFR BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT COULD SEE OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS BY LATE
IN THE DAY AS MORE SHSN MOVE IN FROM THE SW. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ076-077-
081>086-088-089-093>099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ072>075-
078>080-087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ067-068.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
855 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING/SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUING TOO...
HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE FOR THE FL PENINSULA...READINGS FROM THE USAF 915HZ PROFILER
SHOWS A SOLID 20-25KT NE FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR WITH NO LET UP
IN SIGHT. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SOMEWHAT SPARSE MOISTURE
UPSTREAM OVER THE W ATLC WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES GENERALLY AOB
70PCT. EVNG SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING AROUND
1.0" ACRS THE STATE.
THE BASIC WX PATTERN REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE MIDWEEK:
BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH LCL POCKETS OF ENHANCED LOW LVL
MOISTURE IN FROM THE ATLC OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE HI PRES RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP CAP ON THE LCL AIRMASS WITH LAPSE RATES
AVERAGING 4.5-5.0C/KM THRU THE H85-H50 LYR. PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO
LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLD LOW-TOPPED SHRAS OVERNIGHT...MOST OF WHICH
WILL DISSIPATED AS THEY CROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE NE FLOW HAS ALLOWED A FEW OF THESE TO
PENETRATE INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES SINCE SUNSET...BUT IMPACT HAS
BEEN NEGLIGIBLE. WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO PUT BLO 20PCT POPS IN
FOR THE INTERIOR...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE FAR MORE THE
EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.
LONG/STRONG NE FETCH OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN THE LARGE SWELL
TRAIN THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE E FL COAST FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.
BREAKING WAVE ENERGY WILL CHANGE LITTLE GENERATE BEACH EROSION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HI TIDE. HIGH SURF ADVISORY/COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 29/00Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 28/14Z...NE 7-11KTS COASTAL SITES...5-7KTS INTERIOR
SITES. BTWN 28/14Z-28/16Z...BCMG NE 10-13KTS ALL SITES...OCNL
G20KTS COASTAL SITES.
VSBY/WX/CIGS: ISOLD MVFR SHRAS E OF KOBE-KSFB-KGNV...SLGT CHC OF
IFR VSBYS IN BRIEF +SHRAS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS THE PERSISTENT HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLC MAINTAINS A MODERATE TO FRESH NE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL
ATLC. THE NE FETCH EXTENDS INTO THE ATLC WATERS E OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...ENSURING THE SWELL TRAIN WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDS THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NO SIG CHANGES WITH THE EVNG
UPDATE...SEAS 6-9FT NEARSHORE AND 10-12FT OFFSHORE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA
COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20
NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
827 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE THIS EVENING OVER NORTH AMERICA. CURRENTLY
SEEING THE COMPLETION OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH FRACTURE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS MAIN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAS
"FRACTURED" AND MOVED EASTWARD FROM A LEFT-BEHIND CLOSED UPPER LOW
NOW STALLED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS ENTERING
THE CONTINENT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS UPPER LOW THROUGH THE BAJA
REGION OF MEXICO AND THEN RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SOUTHERN STREAM
STRUCTURE VERY WELL WITH A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THESE FEATURES
ALTHOUGH INTERESTING FROM A METEOROLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE...HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DEEP LAYER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE INFLUENCE AND
PROTECTION OF THIS RIDGE FROM INCLEMENT WEATHER SHOULD ONLY INCREASE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS/FLORIDA PENINSULA/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. OUR POSITION WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE HIGH CENTER...AND NORTHWEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS PROVIDING A HEALTHY PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS TIGHTER GRADIENT KEPT A STEADY EAST/NE FLOW AND
GENERALLY GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGHOUT FRIDAY. NOW WITH THE SETTING
OF THE SUN...THE GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVER THE
LAND MASS...BUT MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE LATER EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES PREVAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
AS THE HIGH CENTER WEAKENS AND DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAX AND HENCE A RELAXING OF THE ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW SEEN THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
REST OF TONIGHT... THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. NARRE/SREF VISIBILITY PROBS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...MAINLY FROM
BROOKSVILLE NORTHWARD...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT AREAL EXTENT OF THE
FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. FURTHER SOUTH FROM
BROOKSVILLE...THE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY ISSUES WITH FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY... A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY START TO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BE A PROTECTING FORCE OVERHEAD.
SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS...THE ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAKING THEIR
WAY ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN SHALLOWER
FOR SATURDAY...AND THE GRADIENT FORCING THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO RELAX AND LIMIT THE OVERALL COASTAL CONVERGENCE.
THEREFORE...WHILE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR 2 ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE...THE
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FURTHER LIMITED COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST WILL CONSIST OF A MIX OF
SUN AND CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH.
LOOKING AHEAD...THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE MORE OF THE SAME FOR
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT
LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION... WIND GUSTS ARE RELAXING AND SHOULD SEE A GENERALLY
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND UNDER 10 KNOTS THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. KEEPING TAFS VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF MVFR VIS/CIGS STAYS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH DAWN.
SATURDAY WILL SEE NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUE WITH A SCT CUMULUS FIELD
DEVELOPING. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SPRINKLE FOR
KLAL/KPGD/KFMY/KRSW...ALTHOUGH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH THESE
LOCALIZED LIGHT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER NIGHT OF ELEVATED WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WINDS WILL BE RELAXING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS AND DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION.
AFTER TONIGHT...HEADLINE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY NOT ANTICIPATED FOR
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 63 79 64 80 / 0 10 10 10
FMY 63 81 63 83 / 0 10 10 10
GIF 62 79 60 81 / 10 10 10 20
SRQ 63 79 64 81 / 0 10 0 10
BKV 61 79 60 80 / 0 10 10 10
SPG 65 79 66 79 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL MANATEE.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60
NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
907 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE...
745 PM CST
GOING FORECAST TONIGHT LARGELY IN DECENT SHAPE. MAIN TWEAK WAS TO
LOWER HOURLY POPS IN SOUTHERN CWA AS OBS HAVE ONLY BEEN SHOWING
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS SO ITS PROBABLE
NOT ALL AREAS ARE SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP. KEPT DRIZZLE WORDING
GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA WITH LOW DEWPOINT SPREADS
AND CONTINUED BROAD LIFT FROM UPPER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. SOLID STRATUS DECK STETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
CENTRAL WI...THEREFORE LOCKED IN FULL CLOUD COVER UNTIL ABOUT MID
DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP A FEW DEGREES
FROM CURRENT LEVELS BY DAYBREAK. TWEAKED A FEW LOCATIONS UP A
DEGREE OR SO CONSIDERING CLOUDS AND WINDS NOT GOING CALM. WILL BE
ABLE TO LET THE LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY GO AS PLANNED AT
9PM...WITH WAVES AT SOUTH BUOY DOWN TO 8 FEET AS OF THIS WRITING
AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT MARINE OB SITES.
ONLY OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS LAKE EFFECT PLUME INTO FAR NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN ON LAST SEVERAL HOURLY RUNS OF
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS HRRR AND HRRR-X. WITH UNIMPRESSIVE LAKE TO
850 MB DELTA T/S OF 9 OR 10 CELSIUS YIELDING LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
AND NOT MUCH INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT
OF LAKE PLUME. KEPT "SILENT" POPS AROUND 10% IN GRIDS.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
212 PM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON IS SLOWLY SLIDING
SOUTHEAST TOGETHER WITH AN AXIS OF PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FGEN ALIGNED
ALONG A COLD FRONT. FARTHER NORTH...A RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE IS
STARTING TO WORK INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS EVIDENCED BY FALLING
DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. AFTER THE AREA DRIES
OUT THIS EVENING...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND NEAR SEASONALLY NORMAL HIGHS UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE AND THE CORRESPONDING HEIGHT RISES ALOFT.
LENNING
&&
.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT LOCALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE IN
LIFTING THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. IT IS A LITTLE HARD TO BUY
INTO SUCH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM A CONSIDERABLY WRAPPED UP
FEATURE...BUT THE KICK APPEARS TO COME FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS APPARENT ON THE WV IMAGERY AND BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE IT ANALYZED WELL...SO WILL PLAN TO
FOLLOW THE IDEAS OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
MOST OF MONDAY...OR AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL
AREA SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LIFTING
OUT OF THE GULF AHEAD OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH STAYS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHIELD
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING THIS WOULD ALL
APPEAR TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE
OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES LIKELY
WILL CLIMB OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOW CENTERS BOTH LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WRAP COLDER AIR AROUND
TO THEIR SOUTH. LOW LEVELS DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVES AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
SNOW.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE AREA AGAIN SHOULD HAVE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER...AND CLEARING SKIES WOULD APPEAR TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS
NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* MVFR CIGS THROUGH SAT MORNING...POSSIBLY INTO AFTERNOON
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
COOL BUT STILL RATHER MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT. LARGE BANK OF MVFR
CIGS LIKELY TO KEEP TERMINALS LOCKED IN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH SAT
MORNING. GUIDANCE IS ALL SUGGESTING THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING OUT OF
THE MVFR CIGS WHICH COULD VERY WELL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOME LINGERING GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO MAINLY EARLY PORTIONS OF THIS
EVENING.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS SCATTERING OUT SATURDAY
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EVERYTHING ELSE
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODIC -SHRA. CHANCE OF -DZ/FG. MVFR
CIGS LIKELY WITH IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY.
THURSDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
212 PM CST
BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LAKES FROM THE
WEST...AND A COLD FRONT DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...STRONG NORTH
WINDS OVER THE LAKE TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY...WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WILL BACK WESTERLY WHILE WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL VEER NORTHEASTERLY. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SLIDES NORTH OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND TURNS ALL WINDS TO THE
EAST. THE EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF APPROACHES THE AREA.
BY TUESDAY THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIFTING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
THEN ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF
THE LAKE REMAINING EAST OF THIS LOW...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM
EAST TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND ALL THE WAY AROUND TO NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
906 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
Cold front finally cleared entire forecast area earlier this
evening. The post frontal precipitation has also been on the wane
with the departure of the front and much of the associated
forcing. Based on latest radar trends and mesoscale model runs,
expect that most of the measurable precipitation has ended, except
for areas along/south of the I-70 corridor. Still, a deep moist
layer is still conducive for the patchy post frontal drizzle that
is being reported. Far northern portions of the forecast area are
approaching 32 degrees, and although these temperatures shouldn`t
fall much further overnight, there is some threat of slick roads
due to the currently wet pavement and possibly some patchy
freezing drizzle. Aside from updates to PoP trends, only a few
minor tweaks are needed to the nighttime forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
The cold front draped across the eastern half of the country has
almost made it all the way through ILXs area this afternoon, and is
currently in the vicinity of I-70. Plenty of precipitation in the
region moving up from the SW. Precip is expected to continue,
particularly in the south and east through the overnight. The big
issues are the northern extent of the measurable precip, and the
timing of the cold air moving in behind it. HRRR and NAM both
trying to pull the precip further south after 06z, which should
remove the threat for FZRA later tonight. The forward progression
of the cooler air is also working against the rainfall as it is much
drier than the airmass over Central Illinois. The dry air is slowly
eroding the llvl RH and some of the weaker echos in the NW are only
seeing low clouds, and not reporting precip. Even in the NW where
the rain chances may recede after midnight, the low clouds and
potential for a misty night remain.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
Our area should be in between shortwaves on Saturday with a definite
trend south with the axis of heavier QPF from previous forecasts.
With our area in between shortwave trofs on Saturday, it appears the
better chances for rain will be across southeast Illinois, closer to
the frontal boundary and any associated weak surface wave that will
track northeast along it. Forecast soundings not very supporting of
any precip further north during the day so we will see a gradual
shift south with the higher POPs as the boundary gets a nudge to the
south by afternoon. Forecast soundings showing some drier air (900-
800 mb)advecting south into the region during the day as well but
expect quite a bit of cloudiness to hang around during the day with
the lingering POPs mainly across the southern third of the forecast
area by afternoon.
Low POPs will remain Saturday night into Sunday with the GFS showing
a weak lead shortwave coming out of the large upper low over the
southwest U.S. Sunday afternoon and evening with the main push from
the low to our southwest not getting into central Illinois until
Monday. That is when we will see likely POPs return across the
entire area with forecast soundings continuing to support rain
during the day, and then as we see cold advection settle in around
the backside of the upper low Monday night, we will see a mix or
changeover to light snow before the main forcing/lift ejects off to
the northeast on Tuesday. The main 500 mb trof axis will not shift
off to our east until Wednesday, so we will continue with at
least some low chance POPs Tuesday and Tuesday night associated
with the cold pool aloft. Finally, by Wednesday, the system should
be far enough to our northeast to have a dry forecast for the
entire area along with seasonably cool temperatures.
As the large upper low continues to drift away from the Midwest late
Wednesday into the end of the work week, upper level heights will
start to increase across the region, with more of a semi-zonal flow
pattern depicted on medium range models. This should result in a
rather quiet weather scene over the region with near normal
temperatures and little if any rain or snow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
Cold front cleared the central Illinois terminals earlier today,
but post frontal light showers/drizzle persist. The rain/drizzle
should come to an end by morning, but still expect IFR or low end
MVFR conditions to persist at least into mid-morning Saturday.
Then, as the rain and drizzle threat ends Saturday, and drier air
filters in on the northerly winds, VSBYs should be unrestricted
and CIGs will climb toward VFR by the end of the day.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
745 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE...
745 PM CST
GOING FORECAST TONIGHT LARGELY IN DECENT SHAPE. MAIN TWEAK WAS TO
LOWER HOURLY POPS IN SOUTHERN CWA AS OBS HAVE ONLY BEEN SHOWING
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS SO ITS PROBABLE
NOT ALL AREAS ARE SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP. KEPT DRIZZLE WORDING
GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA WITH LOW DEWPOINT SPREADS
AND CONTINUED BROAD LIFT FROM UPPER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. SOLID STRATUS DECK STETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
CENTRAL WI...THEREFORE LOCKED IN FULL CLOUD COVER UNTIL ABOUT MID
DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP A FEW DEGREES
FROM CURRENT LEVELS BY DAYBREAK. TWEAKED A FEW LOCATIONS UP A
DEGREE OR SO CONSIDERING CLOUDS AND WINDS NOT GOING CALM. WILL BE
ABLE TO LET THE LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY GO AS PLANNED AT
9PM...WITH WAVES AT SOUTH BUOY DOWN TO 8 FEET AS OF THIS WRITING
AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT MARINE OB SITES.
ONLY OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS LAKE EFFECT PLUME INTO FAR NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN ON LAST SEVERAL HOURLY RUNS OF
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS HRRR AND HRRR-X. WITH UNIMPRESSIVE LAKE TO
850 MB DELTA T/S OF 9 OR 10 CELSIUS YIELDING LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
AND NOT MUCH INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT
OF LAKE PLUME. KEPT "SILENT" POPS AROUND 10% IN GRIDS.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
212 PM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON IS SLOWLY SLIDING
SOUTHEAST TOGETHER WITH AN AXIS OF PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FGEN ALIGNED
ALONG A COLD FRONT. FARTHER NORTH...A RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE IS
STARTING TO WORK INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS EVIDENCED BY FALLING
DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. AFTER THE AREA DRIES
OUT THIS EVENING...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND NEAR SEASONALLY NORMAL HIGHS UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE AND THE CORRESPONDING HEIGHT RISES ALOFT.
LENNING
&&
.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT LOCALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE IN
LIFTING THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. IT IS A LITTLE HARD TO BUY
INTO SUCH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM A CONSIDERABLY WRAPPED UP
FEATURE...BUT THE KICK APPEARS TO COME FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS APPARENT ON THE WV IMAGERY AND BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE IT ANALYZED WELL...SO WILL PLAN TO
FOLLOW THE IDEAS OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
MOST OF MONDAY...OR AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL
AREA SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LIFTING
OUT OF THE GULF AHEAD OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH STAYS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHIELD
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING THIS WOULD ALL
APPEAR TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE
OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES LIKELY
WILL CLIMB OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOW CENTERS BOTH LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WRAP COLDER AIR AROUND
TO THEIR SOUTH. LOW LEVELS DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVES AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
SNOW.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE AREA AGAIN SHOULD HAVE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER...AND CLEARING SKIES WOULD APPEAR TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS
NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* MVFR CIGS THROUGH SAT MORNING...POSSIBLY INTO AFTERNOON
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
COOL BUT STILL RATHER MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT. LARGE BANK OF MVFR
CIGS LIKELY TO KEEP TERMINALS LOCKED IN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH SAT
MORNING. GUIDANCE IS ALL SUGGESTING THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING OUT OF
THE MVFR CIGS WHICH COULD VERY WELL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOME LINGERING GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO MAINLY EARLY PORTIONS OF THIS
EVENING.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS SCATTERING OUT SATURDAY
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EVERYTHING ELSE
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODIC -SHRA. CHANCE OF -DZ/FG. MVFR
CIGS LIKELY WITH IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY.
THURSDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
212 PM CST
BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LAKES FROM THE
WEST...AND A COLD FRONT DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...STRONG NORTH
WINDS OVER THE LAKE TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY...WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WILL BACK WESTERLY WHILE WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL VEER NORTHEASTERLY. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SLIDES NORTH OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND TURNS ALL WINDS TO THE
EAST. THE EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF APPROACHES THE AREA.
BY TUESDAY THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIFTING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
THEN ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF
THE LAKE REMAINING EAST OF THIS LOW...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM
EAST TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND ALL THE WAY AROUND TO NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 9 PM FRIDAY.
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 9 PM FRIDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
556 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
The cold front draped across the eastern half of the country has
almost made it all the way through ILXs area this afternoon, and is
currently in the vicinity of I-70. Plenty of precipitation in the
region moving up from the SW. Precip is expected to continue,
particularly in the south and east through the overnight. The big
issues are the northern extent of the measurable precip, and the
timing of the cold air moving in behind it. HRRR and NAM both
trying to pull the precip further south after 06z, which should
remove the threat for FZRA later tonight. The forward progression
of the cooler air is also working against the rainfall as it is much
drier than the airmass over Central Illinois. The dry air is slowly
eroding the llvl RH and some of the weaker echos in the NW are only
seeing low clouds, and not reporting precip. Even in the NW where
the rain chances may recede after midnight, the low clouds and
potential for a misty night remain.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
Our area should be in between shortwaves on Saturday with a definite
trend south with the axis of heavier QPF from previous forecasts.
With our area in between shortwave trofs on Saturday, it appears the
better chances for rain will be across southeast Illinois, closer to
the frontal boundary and any associated weak surface wave that will
track northeast along it. Forecast soundings not very supporting of
any precip further north during the day so we will see a gradual
shift south with the higher POPs as the boundary gets a nudge to the
south by afternoon. Forecast soundings showing some drier air (900-
800 mb)advecting south into the region during the day as well but
expect quite a bit of cloudiness to hang around during the day with
the lingering POPs mainly across the southern third of the forecast
area by afternoon.
Low POPs will remain Saturday night into Sunday with the GFS showing
a weak lead shortwave coming out of the large upper low over the
southwest U.S. Sunday afternoon and evening with the main push from
the low to our southwest not getting into central Illinois until
Monday. That is when we will see likely POPs return across the
entire area with forecast soundings continuing to support rain
during the day, and then as we see cold advection settle in around
the backside of the upper low Monday night, we will see a mix or
changeover to light snow before the main forcing/lift ejects off to
the northeast on Tuesday. The main 500 mb trof axis will not shift
off to our east until Wednesday, so we will continue with at
least some low chance POPs Tuesday and Tuesday night associated
with the cold pool aloft. Finally, by Wednesday, the system should
be far enough to our northeast to have a dry forecast for the
entire area along with seasonably cool temperatures.
As the large upper low continues to drift away from the Midwest late
Wednesday into the end of the work week, upper level heights will
start to increase across the region, with more of a semi-zonal flow
pattern depicted on medium range models. This should result in a
rather quiet weather scene over the region with near normal
temperatures and little if any rain or snow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
Cold front cleared the central Illinois terminals earlier today,
but post frontal light showers/drizzle persist. The rain/drizzle
should come to an end by morning, but still expect IFR or low end
MVFR conditions to persist at least into mid-morning Saturday.
Then, as the rain and drizzle threat ends Saturday, and drier air
filters in on the northerly winds, VSBYs should be unrestricted
and CIGs will climb toward VFR by the end of the day.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
920 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
CHILLY...WET AND RAW CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK...USHERING IN MORE RAIN AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 920 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGESTING THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST BORDER ZONES JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MAIN REGION OF LIFT DIMINISHES...BUT WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME RAIN CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AS
OVERRUNNING LINGERS ALONG FRONT.
ALL IN ALL...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS MADE
ON THE UPDATE WILL BE FOR THE WINDS DUE TO FRONTAL POSITION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE SEEN A 7 TO 10
DEGREE DROP WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT 20Z...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY ALIGNED FROM JUST
NORTH OF KMIE W/SW THROUGH CENTRAL VERMILLION COUNTY. TEMPS WERE IN
THE 40S NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
THE RAIN AND TEMPERATURE SHIFT ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE NEAR
TERM AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD TREK
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS THE INDY METRO OVER THE
NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE METRO AREA TO THE SOUTH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY SURFACE
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE BOUNDARY
EVEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
STRETCHES OUT. WHILE THE JET WEAKENS...DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONALLY...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE REGION REMAINING NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER JET OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THIS
POINTS TO CONTINUED RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RATES SETTING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. 100 POPS REMAINS VALID FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO A RAW AND CHILLY N/NE FLOW WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
TEMPS...TOOK CURRENT OBS AND UTILIZED THE 18Z RAP AS A STARTING
POINT FOR HOURLY TEMP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS WITH THE
FRONT SLIDING SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT LIES AT 12Z
SATURDAY WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW COOL FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
GET. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LOCALES FROM BEDFORD THROUGH SEYMOUR AND
NORTH VERNON HANG UP CLOSER TO 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH
A PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH A BRIEF BREAK WEDGED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN CONTINUING
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED HERE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
DEEPER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER MOST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING WELL BEHIND THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING CLOUDY INTO SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DRAWING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION WILL BECOME ZONAL AND EVEN BRIEFLY RIDGE AS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SERVE TO SHIFT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BULK OF THE RAINFALL SOUTH
INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND GIVE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA A RESPITE FROM THE
WET PATTERN. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. CANNOT RULE
OUT A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY BUT MOST
SHOULD STAY DRY.
ELONGATED AND STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
BEGIN TO EJECT OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...LEADING TO A RESUMPTION OF THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
COMMENCE EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW...DEEPENING QUICKLY AS IT PULLS NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROMPT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT. TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PLAY AT THIS POINT BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE ECMWF AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE OP GFS FASTER IN BRINGING PRECIP BACK NORTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL REINTRODUCE LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER ALL
BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH HIGHER POPS MONDAY AS STEADIER
RAINS ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
TEMPS...A MOS BLEND OVERALL WORKED WELL FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR
LOWS AS MAV AND MET GUIDANCE LOOKED TOO AGGRESSIVE AND FAR TOO COLD
WITH LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO START THE LONG TERM...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD SEE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH IT.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY AND WARM BY A
COUPLE DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 605 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS LIKELY MOST OF THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES WITH
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT MOST SITES THROUGHOUT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH...WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 14-15KT AT TIMES. A PERIODIC GUST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL BE TOO INFREQUENT TO MENTION.
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IFR OR WORSE THROUGHOUT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND/OR SOME DRIZZLE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
CHILLY...WET AND RAW CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK...USHERING IN MORE RAIN AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE SEEN A 7 TO 10
DEGREE DROP WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT 20Z...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY ALIGNED FROM JUST
NORTH OF KMIE W/SW THROUGH CENTRAL VERMILLION COUNTY. TEMPS WERE IN
THE 40S NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
THE RAIN AND TEMPERATURE SHIFT ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE NEAR
TERM AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD TREK
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS THE INDY METRO OVER THE
NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE METRO AREA TO THE SOUTH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY SURFACE
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE BOUNDARY
EVEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
STRETCHES OUT. WHILE THE JET WEAKENS...DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONALLY...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE REGION REMAINING NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER JET OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THIS
POINTS TO CONTINUED RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RATES SETTING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. 100 POPS REMAINS VALID FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO A RAW AND CHILLY N/NE FLOW WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
TEMPS...TOOK CURRENT OBS AND UTILIZED THE 18Z RAP AS A STARTING
POINT FOR HOURLY TEMP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS WITH THE
FRONT SLIDING SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT LIES AT 12Z
SATURDAY WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW COOL FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
GET. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LOCALES FROM BEDFORD THROUGH SEYMOUR AND
NORTH VERNON HANG UP CLOSER TO 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH
A PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH A BRIEF BREAK WEDGED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN CONTINUING
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED HERE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
DEEPER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER MOST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING WELL BEHIND THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING CLOUDY INTO SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DRAWING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION WILL BECOME ZONAL AND EVEN BRIEFLY RIDGE AS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SERVE TO SHIFT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BULK OF THE RAINFALL SOUTH
INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND GIVE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA A RESPITE FROM THE
WET PATTERN. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. CANNOT RULE
OUT A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY BUT MOST
SHOULD STAY DRY.
ELONGATED AND STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
BEGIN TO EJECT OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...LEADING TO A RESUMPTION OF THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
COMMENCE EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW...DEEPENING QUICKLY AS IT PULLS NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROMPT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT. TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PLAY AT THIS POINT BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE ECMWF AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE OP GFS FASTER IN BRINGING PRECIP BACK NORTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL REINTRODUCE LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER ALL
BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH HIGHER POPS MONDAY AS STEADIER
RAINS ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
TEMPS...A MOS BLEND OVERALL WORKED WELL FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR
LOWS AS MAV AND MET GUIDANCE LOOKED TOO AGGRESSIVE AND FAR TOO COLD
WITH LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO START THE LONG TERM...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD SEE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH IT.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY AND WARM BY A
COUPLE DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 605 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS LIKELY MOST OF THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES WITH
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT MOST SITES THROUGHOUT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH...WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 14-15KT AT TIMES. A PERIODIC GUST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL BE TOO INFREQUENT TO MENTION.
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IFR OR WORSE THROUGHOUT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND/OR SOME DRIZZLE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
823 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 816 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE TRI-STATE
AREA CURRENTLY. THIS CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WILL CREATE A
THIN GLAZE OF ICE ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES. THE ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT AS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE LAST
NIGHT. NO ADVISORY FOR ICE ACCUMULATION IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SNOW LARGE
CLOSED LOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH EXTENSIVE
PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHEAST US. DRY LAYER (APPARENT ON
SATELLITE) IS STILL INFLUENCE OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
COMPLICATE PRECIP TYPE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...STAGNANT/COLD PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH
THESE PERIODS WITH POST FRONTAL/COLD AIR MASS LINGERING IN PLACE.
WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REMAIN IN
PLACE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES/TYPE IS THE
DEPTH/NATURE OF THE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER OUR CWA. A DRY LAYER IN
THE LOWEST 6000 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPED OVER NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND ADVECTED SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA PUTTING AN END TO
PRECIP. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF RETURN FLOW/UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE -3 TO -8C
LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS FLOW ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AS NORTHERLY
WINDS (INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE) SHOULD KEEP A PERSISTENT DRY
LAYER IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL OR AT THE VERY LEAST COVERAGE.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ON SHIFTING BL FLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A COMPLICATED PRECIP TYPE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN IF THE RETURN FLOW DOESN`T OCCUR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS END
UP OVERDONE. AFTER COLLABORATION...DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF
ON ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND I PLAN ON HANDLING THE
POTENTIAL WITH SPS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN UTAH INTO SOUTHWEST
WYOMING SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PLAN TO GO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT SINCE FORCING AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DECREASING AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SUNDAY. FORCING
INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND GOES INTO THE NIGHT. PLAN TO GO
WITH HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING AS MID LEVELS
SATURATE AND ICE FORMS IN THE COLUMN. OVERNIGHT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STARTS DECREASING AGAIN SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE LIGHT SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND THE MID 30S MONDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS
FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS LACKING
WITH THIS FEATURE SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE FA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW EXITS AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. CONSEQUENTLY,
POPS WILL BE NIL.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS MODERATING TO
THE LOWER 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MODERATING TO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 425 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. FREEZING DRIZZLE
MIXED WITH SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE SOME. HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LACK OF INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION...AM NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DROP BELOW MVFR AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL/CLT
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
427 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SNOW LARGE
CLOSED LOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH EXTENSIVE
PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHEAST US. DRY LAYER (APPARENT ON
SATELLITE) IS STILL INFLUENCE OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
COMPLICATE PRECIP TYPE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...STAGNANT/COLD PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH
THESE PERIODS WITH POST FRONTAL/COLD AIR MASS LINGERING IN PLACE.
WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REMAIN IN
PLACE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES/TYPE IS THE
DEPTH/NATURE OF THE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER OUR CWA. A DRY LAYER IN
THE LOWEST 6000 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPED OVER NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND ADVECTED SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA PUTTING AN END TO
PRECIP. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF RETURN FLOW/UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE -3 TO -8C
LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS FLOW ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AS NORTHERLY
WINDS (INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE) SHOULD KEEP A PERSISTENT DRY
LAYER IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL OR AT THE VERY LEAST COVERAGE.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ON SHIFTING BL FLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A COMPLICATED PRECIP TYPE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN IF THE RETURN FLOW DOESN`T OCCUR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS END
UP OVERDONE. AFTER COLLABORATION...DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF
ON ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND I PLAN ON HANDLING THE
POTENTIAL WITH SPS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN UTAH INTO SOUTHWEST
WYOMING SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PLAN TO GO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT SINCE FORCING AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DECREASING AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SUNDAY. FORCING
INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND GOES INTO THE NIGHT. PLAN TO GO
WITH HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING AS MID LEVELS
SATURATE AND ICE FORMS IN THE COLUMN. OVERNIGHT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STARTS DECREASING AGAIN SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE LIGHT SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND THE MID 30S MONDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS
FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS LACKING
WITH THIS FEATURE SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE FA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW EXITS AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. CONSEQUENTLY,
POPS WILL BE NIL.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS MODERATING TO
THE LOWER 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MODERATING TO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 425 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. FREEZING DRIZZLE
MIXED WITH SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE SOME. HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LACK OF INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION...AM NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DROP BELOW MVFR AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1050+MB SURFACE
HIGH PRES (+3 ST DEV) STILL CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND RIDGING
SW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. MEANWHILE, SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSOURI VALLEY. 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY SHOWING SOME
SC PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC
COUNTIES THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH EAST FLOW IN LOW LEVELS.
AREA OF ADDITIONAL CLOUDS PUSHING EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
AS PER USUAL, THE NAM TENDS TO OVERPLAY ITS HAND WITH ITS PROGGED
LLVL MOISTURE FIELDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND ACCORDINGLY KEEPS THE
AREA IN BKN TO OVC CLOUDS. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE HIGH RES
MODELS DEPICTION OF THE RAP AND HRRR OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...MIXING OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
AS FOR TEMPS, THE MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH ANOTHER DRY, MILD DAY EXPECTED. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
CENTRAL AND E/SE SECTIONS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S IN THE NW...LOW TO
MID40S I-95 CORRIDOR...AND U40S TO AROUND 50 SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND MILDER WX
EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROF
JUST OFF THE SE COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT MSTR / PCPN PROGGED TO STAY
SE OF THE LOCAL AREA AND OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. THUS...SILENT
POPS (<14%) CONTINUE. H85 TEMPS/THICKNESS TOOLS BOTH SUPPORT HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.
00Z/26 MODELS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT. PREFERRED
GFS/ECMWF BLENDED SOLUTION DEPICTS A WEAKENING BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SAT NGT. LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA ON SATURDAY, AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN AND PUSH BACK POP...KEEPING SAT AND MUCH
OF SAT NIGHT DRY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA (EXCEPTION IS SLIGHT POP
OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS). HAVE ALSO PUSHED TEMPS UPWARD IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME MORE TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR OUR AREA ON
SAT. INCRG CLDNS SHOULD TEMPER HIGHS A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT
THINKING IS THE UPTICK IN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY IS
JUSTIFIED. BUMPED MAXIMA UP 2-3 DEG INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SOUTH...BUT WITH COOLER U50S OVER THE ERN SHORE / NRN NECK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLOCKY PATTERN PERSISTS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER THE WRN
CONUS...LENDING TO A DIFFICULT/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO RESIDE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SWD DURING THE DAY
SUN...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE DAY SUN. FRONT
WEAKENS SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...RIDGING SWD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARISE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OH VALLEY MON AND TUE. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MON. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD
THE ECMWF BEGINNING MON NIGHT AND TUE...WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THRU THE REGION LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE CHANCE
POPS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. DRYING TREND EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE MIDWEST.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER STEADY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS THRU THE EXTENDED. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG THIS MORNING AS AREAS OF FROST
BURN OFF AND CONDENSE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION WILL PREVENT AN INCOMING MARINE CLOUD DECK FROM
IMPACTING KECG. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A COMBINATION OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND FAIR WX
CUMULUS AROUND 6 KFT AGL THIS AFTN...DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
WINDS AOB 10KT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STALL/WEAKEN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
WITH PERIODS OF -SHRA (IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR COASTAL TAF SITES) AS THE FRONT STALLS/WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STACKED IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY AND FRIDAY. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10-15KT...SEAS 3-4FT...AND
WAVES 1-2FT. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONGER RESULTANT
WINDS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND A LONG NE-E FETCH WILL PUSH SEAS
TOWARD 5 FT EARLY THIS EVENING IN FAR SRN WATERS...WHICH WILL THEN
BUILD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE THIS EVENING FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STALL/WEAKEN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WINDS
MAINTAIN A NLY WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT. SEAS SHOULD
STAY ELEVATED AT 4-6FT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO NLY ONSHORE WINDS
AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 3-5FT SAT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
353 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1050+MB SURFACE
HIGH PRES (+3 ST DEV) STILL CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND RIDGING
SW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. MEANWHILE, SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSOURI VALLEY. 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY SHOWING SOME
SC PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC
COUNTIES THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH EAST FLOW IN LOW LEVELS.
AREA OF ADDITIONAL CLOUDS PUSHING EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
AS PER USUAL, THE NAM TENDS TO OVERPLAY ITS HAND WITH ITS PROGGED
LLVL MOISTURE FIELDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND ACCORDINGLY KEEPS THE
AREA IN BKN TO OVC CLOUDS. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE HIGH RES
MODELS DEPICTION OF THE RAP AND HRRR OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...MIXING OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
AS FOR TEMPS, THE MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH ANOTHER DRY, MILD DAY EXPECTED. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
CENTRAL AND E/SE SECTIONS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S IN THE NW...LOW TO
MID40S I-95 CORRIDOR...AND U40S TO AROUND 50 SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND MILDER WX
EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROF
JUST OFF THE SE COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT MSTR / PCPN PROGGED TO STAY
SE OF THE LOCAL AREA AND OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. THUS...SILENT
POPS (<14%) CONTINUE. H85 TEMPS/THICKNESS TOOLS BOTH SUPPORT HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.
00Z/26 MODELS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT. PREFERRED
GFS/ECMWF BLENDED SOLUTION DEPICTS A WEAKENING BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SAT NGT. LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA ON SATURDAY, AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN AND PUSH BACK POP...KEEPING SAT AND MUCH
OF SAT NIGHT DRY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA (EXCEPTION IS SLIGHT POP
OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS). HAVE ALSO PUSHED TEMPS UPWARD IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME MORE TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR OUR AREA ON
SAT. INCRG CLDNS SHOULD TEMPER HIGHS A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT
THINKING IS THE UPTICK IN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY IS
JUSTIFIED. BUMPED MAXIMA UP 2-3 DEG INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SOUTH...BUT WITH COOLER U50S OVER THE ERN SHORE / NRN NECK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLOCKY PATTERN PERSISTS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER THE WRN
CONUS...LENDING TO A DIFFICULT/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO RESIDE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SWD DURING THE DAY
SUN...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE DAY SUN. FRONT
WEAKENS SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...RIDGING SWD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARISE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OH VALLEY MON AND TUE. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MON. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD
THE ECMWF BEGINNING MON NIGHT AND TUE...WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THRU THE REGION LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE CHANCE
POPS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. DRYING TREND EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE MIDWEST.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER STEADY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS THRU THE EXTENDED. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING AS AREAS OF FROST BURN OFF AND CONDENSE AROUND
26/1200Z. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL PREVENT AN
INCOMING MARINE CLOUD DECK FROM IMPACTING KECG. THEREFORE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
COMBINATION OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND FAIR WX CUMULUS AROUND
6 KFT AGL THIS AFTN...DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AOB
10KT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STALL/WEAKEN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
WITH PERIODS OF -SHRA (IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR COASTAL TAF SITES) AS THE FRONT STALLS/WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STACKED IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY AND FRIDAY. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10-15KT...SEAS 3-4FT...AND
WAVES 1-2FT. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONGER RESULTANT
WINDS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND A LONG NE-E FETCH WILL PUSH SEAS
TOWARD 5 FT EARLY THIS EVENING IN FAR SRN WATERS...WHICH WILL THEN
BUILD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE THIS EVENING FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STALL/WEAKEN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WINDS
MAINTAIN A NLY WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT. SEAS SHOULD
STAY ELEVATED AT 4-6FT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO NLY ONSHORE WINDS
AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 3-5FT SAT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
313 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1050+MB SURFACE
HIGH PRES (+3 ST DEV) STILL CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND RIDGING
SW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. MEANWHILE, SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSOURI VALLEY. 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY SHOWING SOME
SC PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC
COUNTIES THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH EAST FLOW IN LOW LEVELS.
AREA OF ADDITIONAL CLOUDS PUSHING EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
AS PER USUAL, THE NAM TENDS TO OVERPLAY ITS HAND WITH ITS PROGGED
LLVL MOISTURE FIELDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND ACCORDINGLY KEEPS THE
AREA IN BKN TO OVC CLOUDS. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE HIGH RES
MODELS DEPICTION OF THE RAP AND HRRR OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...MIXING OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
AS FOR TEMPS, THE MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH ANOTHER DRY, MILD DAY EXPECTED. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
CENTRAL AND E/SE SECTIONS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S IN THE NW...LOW TO
MID40S I-95 CORRIDOR...AND U40S TO AROUND 50 SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND MILDER WX
EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROF
JUST OFF THE SE COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT MSTR / PCPN PROGGED TO STAY
SE OF THE LOCAL AREA AND OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. THUS...SILENT
POPS (<14%) CONTINUE. H85 TEMPS/THICKNESS TOOLS BOTH SUPPORT HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.
00Z/26 MODELS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT. PREFERRED
GFS/ECMWF BLENDED SOLUTION DEPICTS A WEAKENING BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SAT NGT. LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA ON SATURDAY, AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN AND PUSH BACK POP...KEEPING SAT AND MUCH
OF SAT NIGHT DRY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA (EXCEPTION IS SLIGHT POP
OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS). HAVE ALSO PUSHED TEMPS UPWARD IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME MORE TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR OUR AREA ON
SAT. INCRG CLDNS SHOULD TEMPER HIGHS A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT
THINKING IS THE UPTICK IN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY IS
JUSTIFIED. BUMPED MAXIMA UP 2-3 DEG INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SOUTH...BUT WITH COOLER U50S OVER THE ERN SHORE / NRN NECK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLOCKY PATTERN PERSISTS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER THE WRN
CONUS...LENDING TO A DIFFICULT/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO RESIDE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SWD DURING THE DAY
SUN...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE DAY SUN. FRONT
WEAKENS SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...RIDGING SWD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARISE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OH VALLEY MON AND TUE. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MON. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD
THE ECMWF BEGINNING MON NIGHT AND TUE...WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THRU THE REGION LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE CHANCE
POPS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. DRYING TREND EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE MIDWEST.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER STEADY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS THRU THE EXTENDED. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING AS AREAS OF FROST BURN OFF AND CONDENSE AROUND
26/1200Z. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL PREVENT AN
INCOMING MARINE CLOUD DECK FROM IMPACTING KECG. THEREFORE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
COMBINATION OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND FAIR WX CUMULUS AROUND
6 KFT AGL THIS AFTN...DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AOB
10KT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STALL/WEAKEN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
WITH PERIODS OF -SHRA (IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR COASTAL TAF SITES) AS THE FRONT STALLS/WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
607 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NRN BRANCH NW FLOW
ALF PENETRATING INTO THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF PERSISTENT WRN TROF/SE
RDG SRN BRANCH FLOW REGIME DOMINATING THE CONUS. NW FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE NCNTRL PLAINS IS ADVECTING COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA...WITH UPSTREAM 12Z H85 TEMPS -13C AT INL AND -14C AT
YPL. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LK EFFECT CLD COVER OVER THE CWA...BUT
LO SUBSIDENCE INVRN...WITH INVRN BASE AT 12Z NEAR H9-925 AT INL AND
YPL...HAS GREATLY LIMITED THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE LES
IMPACTING AREAS NEAR LK SUP. THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE INCOMING
AIRMASS...WITH 12Z PWAT ABOUT 0.08 INCH AT BOTH INL/YPL /ABOUT 35
PCT OF NORMAL/...HAS ALSO HAD A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON PCPN. LO TEMPS
THIS MRNG WERE QUITE FRIGID AND AS LO AS -5 TO -10F UNDER SFC RDG
AXIS STRETCHING FM THE HI CENTER IN THE DAKOTAS INTO NW ONTARIO.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LO CLDS TRENDS/TEMPS AS DRY
HI PRES RDG IS FCST SLIDE SLOWLY SE THRU THE UPR LKS THRU SAT.
TNGT...AS SFC RDG AXIS/SHARP ACYC LLVL FLOW UNDER AREA OF DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE/DRY AIR SETTLES ACRS
UPR MI...EXPECT LINGERING LK CLDS TO CLR. WITH PWATS IN THE 0.1 TO
0.2 INCH RANGE/LIGHT WINDS/VERY LO TEMPS OBSVD UPSTREAM THIS MRNG...
WL FAVOR THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FCST...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH SN COVER. ARRIVAL OF SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STEADY W WINDS/
PERHAPS MORE PERSISTENT LK CLDS OVER THE KEWEENAW ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE RDG AXIS PASSING TO THE S WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP THERE.
SAT...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/STEADY W WINDS UNDER THE SHARPER PRES
GRADIENT/STEADY W FLOW TO THE N OF HI PRES RDG AXIS FCST TO STRETCH
FM MN ACRS WI INTO NRN LOWER MI ARE FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS INTO THE
0C TO -2C RANGE BY 00Z SUN. UNDER LINGERING AXIS OF DRY AIR...EXPECT
MOSUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH LOWERING SUN ANGLE WL LIMIT DEGREE OF DIURNAL
HEATING...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LO/MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP THE ARCTIC AIR
TRAPPED OVER FAR NORTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND LOOKING AT
THE CFSV2 AND LONG RANGE ECMWF ENSEMBLES...THAT PATTERN LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF DECEMBER.
JUMPING BACK TO THE SHORTER TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH AND A
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT WILL LEAVE THE AREA THE AREA WITH NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD.
THERE IS ONE THING TO MENTION. A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY VEER THE BL WINDS AROUND TO A
LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR A TIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TURN TO THE NORTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 920MB MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S MODEL RUNS...THE CLOUD DEPTH IS SHALLOWER
AND VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. WILL FOLLOW THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE
OF THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD COVER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BASED OFF THE INDICATED LOW CLOUDS ON THE NAM/GFS
FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING...WOULD
EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO PUSH BACK OUT OF THE AREA. WITH AS LOW AS THE
CLOUDS ARE INDICATED IN MODELS TODAY...MAY NEED TO BE CONCERNED
ABOUT REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL FOR SUNDAY
MORNING.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LOW. THAT SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED LOWER ON QPF
VALUES SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN A QUARTER AND
HALF AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER TREND IN THE MODELS IS
FOR GENERALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
INCREASES THE RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. BUT
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.P.. EXPECT THE
MAIN PUSH OF PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THEN EXPECT JUST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THE REST OF THE WAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THE FAR WEST COULD SEE SOME MODERATE SNOW AS
THE AREA OF FORCING FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND IS FOCUSED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE
WESTERN U.P.. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...DON/T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW...AS THE MID LEVELS
QUICKLY DRY OUT DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH COLDER THAN -5C. THAT UPPER RIDGE
WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE WSW TNGT. EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CIGS TO GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT KCMX AND KSAW THIS EVENING. KIWD WILL STAY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
AS A HI PRES RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...A STRENGTHENING WSW WIND UP TO 25-30
KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
AND LO PRES CROSSING NRN ONTARIO. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES
TYPICALLY ACCENTUATE THIS FLOW. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL DIMINISH
STEADILY LATER ON SAT AND VEER TO THE NE THRU SUN AS A WEAK LO PRES
TROF/SLACKER GRADIENT DIP INTO THE UPPER LAKES AND HI PRES BUILDS
INTO NW ONTARIO. ONCE THE HI SHIFTS TO THE E...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS
ON MON. A STRONGER E WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL THEN DEVELOP ON TUE AS A
DEEP LO PRES MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NNW ON WED FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS LO TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
538 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE
FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE 15Z
WPC ANALYSIS AT AROUND 1042 HPA WHICH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS HIGH GRADUALLY MIGRATES
EASTWARD INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. TO THE NORTH A VERY WEAK FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
MANITOBA/ONTARIO WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION TONIGHT FOR A BRIEF TIME...BUT WITH A
FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE LIFT NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED. AS TEMPERATURES FALL ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT
THERE COULD BE SOME SHALLOW FOG WHICH DEVELOPS. DESPITE A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS WORKING ITS WAY IN BOTH HRRR/RAP AND NAM ALL DEPICT THIS
POSSIBILITY...BUT SINCE THE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED LIMITED
WORDING TO JUST PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. SUNNY ON SATURDAY WITH
THE SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER SIOUX FALLS SD.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS...COLDEST FROM THE
TWIN PORTS EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW
ZERO. WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER THE OPEN LAKES
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND ON AREA WEBCAMS SOME OF
THE INLAND LAKES FINALLY HAVE ICE DEVELOPING. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S
ON SATURDAY...WHICH JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING COVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW ARRIVES FROM THE SW AS
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN IOWA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES AND HOW IT AFFECTS
THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE ON THE PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AS THE DRY AIR WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. AS SFC TEMPS WILL
BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...WILL KEEP THE RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM PRIOR
FORECAST AS SOME OF THE PCPN WILL REACH THE GROUND AS SNOW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED ON TUESDAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AS EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW MAY CHANGE AND WOULD ALTER SNOW AMOUNT AXIS. UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LATEST TAF CYCLE IS LLWS AT KHIB AND
KINL...ALONG WITH FOG AT KHYR. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT PER THE LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BRING LLWS TO KHIB AND KINL UNTIL 14Z.
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...KHYR SHOULD SEE FOG DEVELOP AROUND 06Z AND PERSIST UNTIL
12Z. THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS IFR OR LOWER VISBY POSSIBLE JUST
SOUTH OF KHYR. STILL UNCERTAIN ON HOW WIDESPREAD THESE LOWER
VISBYS WILL BE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY KEPT KHYR AT MVFR VISBY...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 9 31 15 33 / 0 0 0 0
INL 11 30 13 30 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 8 33 14 34 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 3 32 12 35 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 8 35 16 35 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
FIRST...HERE WERE THE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE IMPENDING
SYSTEM FOR TODAY. THE POP GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENED QUITE A
BIT...PULLING THE MENTIONABLE PRECIP LINE DOWN TO ABOUT A REDWOOD
FALLS...ST. MICHAEL TO CAMBRIDGE LINE. TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WAS
DELAYED A LITTLE SOUTHEAST OF A FAIRMONT...RED WING TO LADYSMITH
LINE. QPF WAS REDUCED SOME...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST.
WITH LOWER QPF AND A DELAYED TRANSITION TO SNOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WERE CUT BACK AS WELL...WITH UP TO ABOUT 2 INCHES NOW FORECAST IN
THE ADVISORY WITH AMOUNTS IN THE TWIN CITIES RANGING FROM A TRACE IN
THE NW METRO WITH AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH IN THE SE METRO. FINALLY...WE
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIP SOME THIS MORNING AND STARTED PUSHING
THE END OF PRECIP TO THE EAST A BIT FASTER TONIGHT.
THE FRONT THAT WORKED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS STRETCHED OUT
FROM THE NE TX PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO THE I-90/I-94 SPLIT IN WI AND
ON UP TOWARD THE MARQUETTE MICHIGAN AREA AT 3 AM. SPC MESOANLYIS
SHOWS THAT FGEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS REALLY CENTERED DOWN IN THE 925-
850MB AREA...WITH NOT MUCH FGEN NOTED AT H7. WITH THE FORCING DOWN
LOW...THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CLOSER TO THE FRONT...HENCE
THE NUDGING OF QPF TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN FACT...EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN
OF THE HRRR KEEPS NUDGING THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...WITH OUR BEST SHOT AT PRECIP COMING FROM THE ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY STARTING TO BLOSSOM ON RADAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COMING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO RIGHT NOW GOING MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE MPX AREA...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN HOW FAR THIS PRECIP CURRENTLY IS /NW TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS OPPOSED TO WRN KS...WHICH IS WHERE MODELS WITH A MORE
NW SOLUTION WERE SHOWING IT SHOULD BE/.
FOR P-TYPE...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A MESS. FIRST OF ALL...THE COLD
AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH EAU CLAIRE STILL ABOVE 40 AT 4
AM. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CAMS ALONG WITH THE RAP
SHOW A MELTING WARM NOSE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS SC/SE MN UNTIL
CLOSE TO 21Z...WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING MORE
SLEET/FZRA INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY SWITCHING TO SNOW
THERE. THE WARMER TEMPS THIS MORNING DO NOT HELP THINGS
EITHER...ESPECIALLY IN WI...WHERE EAU CLAIRE MAY NOT SEE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER 21Z...WHICH IS A BIG REASON WHY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK TO BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OUT IN
THE FAR ERN MPX CWA. FOR TONIGHT...STILL HAVE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO
FZDZ AS THE PRECIP IS MOVING OUT...THOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY
OVERDONE...AS THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ICE CRYSTALS WILL LIKELY
SIGNAL THE END OF PRECIP AS WELL.
WITH THE ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...SAW NO NEED TO CHANGE IT WITH THOSE
AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TODAY...THOUGH
WITH CURRENT AMOUNTS EXPECTED...WOULD HAVE PROBABLY NOT ISSUED AN
ADVY IF ONE WERE NOT ALREADY OUT THERE.
TONIGHT...WE SEE STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN WITH SKIES QUICKLY
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE CLEAR SKIES WITH CONTINUE COLD
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL START TO BLACK FRIDAY...WITH
LOCATIONS OUT IN WEST CENTRAL MN LIKELY STARTING OUT NEAR 10
DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE MONTH SO
FAR/ALTHOUGH THATS NOT SAYING MUCH BECAUSE THE FORECAST AREA IS
AROUND +9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER./ ONE THING OF NOTE
ONFRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS THE EXTREMELY DRY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH HAVE PWATS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGY MINIMUM BETWEEN
0.07-0.10". THE AIRMASS MODERATES THIS WEEKEND AND SUNSHINE
COMBINED WITH MAINLY BROWN GROUND SHOULD GET OUR HIGHS INTO THE
MID 30S...RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SLOW PASSAGE OF
A CLOSED UPPER LOW - THE ONE THATS CURRENTLY SPINNING AWAY ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. UNLIKE...THE SNOW EVENT /OR LACK THERE OF/ TODAY
THAT HAS P-TYPE QUESTIONS AND AN FGEN BAND THAT HAS SLOWLY
DRIFTED FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...THERE IS ACTUALLY DECENT
CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT MON-TUE. WE ALWAYS
HAVE GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH EVENTS LIKE TODAY BECAUSE THE BAND
OF SNOW IS FOCUSED AND NOT VERY WIDE IN SCALE. SO...IF YOU DON`T
GET THE LOCATION QUITE RIGHT...LOCATIONS JUST OUTSIDE THE BAND
GET VERY LITTLE SNOW...AND THAT`S WITHOUT CONSIDERING THE WARMER
TEMPS AND REDUCED SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO SOME OF THE PRECIP FALLING
AS RAIN/SLEET AS IS THE CASE WITH TODAYS EVENT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS PASSAGE WILL
BE SLOW AND THE THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A 24-30HR WINDOW WITH LIFT OVER A VERY
LARGE SPATIAL AREA. IN FACT...THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OFF THE
GFS/ECMWF HAVE MEASURABLE SNOW FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO
ILLINOIS.THEREFORE...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE OUR FORECAST FOR
PROBABILITY OF SNOW INCREASE IN THAT MON-TUE TIME FRAME. IT
APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT A LOT OF LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW IN MN/WI...BUT IT WOULD OCCUR OVER A PROLONGED
WINDOW. UNLIKE BANDED SNOW /LIKE TODAY/...THE WIDESPREAD FORCING
MEANS IT WILL BE TOUGHER FOR THIS ONE TO "MISS" THE AREA
COMPLETELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015
MIXED PRECIP HAS PRETTY MUCH CHANGED TO SNOW EXCEPT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST AREA FROM KEAU TO KAEL...BUT THIS AREA SHOULD ALSO
TRANSITION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
WITH NNW WINDS. SWATH OF PRECIP FROM NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISC. WEST CENTRAL WISC WILL BE THE LAST TO
END PRECIP...BUT SWATH HAS BEEN SHIFTING SE A BIT...SO IT LOOKS
LIKE THE HEAVIEST WILL END AT KEAU AROUND 00Z WITH MAYBE SOME
LIGHTER PRECIP LINGERING INTO THE EVENING.
OTHER ISSUE IS MVFR CEILINGS IN NORTHERN MN INTO MANITOBA AND
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. THE MORE EXTENSIVE MVFR CEILINGS ARE OVER MOST
OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN MN INTO ONTARIO. WITH THE NNW WIND...
THESE ARE LIKELY TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MN
AND WISC...SO THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS. LESS
CERTAIN IS WEST CENTRAL INTO SW MN...SINCE THERE IS MORE OF A
PATCHWORK OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME...AND SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THIS PATCHWORK CONTINUING INTO WRN MN. THEREFORE HAVE
SCT/BKN AT KAXN AND KRWF.
KMSP...SNOW WITH IFR VISIBILITIES WILL SOON TAPER OFF AROUND
19Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR VISIBILITY FOR A COUPLE HOURS AND THEN
ENDING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT... WITH ONE POSSIBLE BREAK TO VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE MVFR
MAY SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MN NORTH OF THE SNOW. BUT
MORE MVFR CEILINGS ARE ON THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHEASTERN
MN AND ONTARIO. SO ANY SCATTERING OUT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL THEN
BE HOW LONG THE MVFR CEILINGS LAST. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST TIL
AT LEAST 06Z...BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE...WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT TAKES 09Z-12Z BEFORE WE SEE ALL VFR.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VRB.
MON...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ024>028.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ077-
078-084-085-091>093.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
542 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
FIRST...HERE WERE THE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE IMPENDING
SYSTEM FOR TODAY. THE POP GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENED QUITE A
BIT...PULLING THE MENTIONABLE PRECIP LINE DOWN TO ABOUT A REDWOOD
FALLS...ST. MICHAEL TO CAMBRIDGE LINE. TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WAS
DELAYED A LITTLE SOUTHEAST OF A FAIRMONT...RED WING TO LADYSMITH
LINE. QPF WAS REDUCED SOME...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST.
WITH LOWER QPF AND A DELAYED TRANSITION TO SNOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WERE CUT BACK AS WELL...WITH UP TO ABOUT 2 INCHES NOW FORECAST IN
THE ADVISORY WITH AMOUNTS IN THE TWIN CITIES RANGING FROM A TRACE IN
THE NW METRO WITH AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH IN THE SE METRO. FINALLY...WE
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIP SOME THIS MORNING AND STARTED PUSHING
THE END OF PRECIP TO THE EAST A BIT FASTER TONIGHT.
THE FRONT THAT WORKED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS STRETCHED OUT
FROM THE NE TX PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO THE I-90/I-94 SPLIT IN WI AND
ON UP TOWARD THE MARQUETTE MICHIGAN AREA AT 3 AM. SPC MESOANLYIS
SHOWS THAT FGEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS REALLY CENTERED DOWN IN THE 925-
850MB AREA...WITH NOT MUCH FGEN NOTED AT H7. WITH THE FORCING DOWN
LOW...THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CLOSER TO THE FRONT...HENCE
THE NUDGING OF QPF TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN FACT...EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN
OF THE HRRR KEEPS NUDGING THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...WITH OUR BEST SHOT AT PRECIP COMING FROM THE ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY STARTING TO BLOSSOM ON RADAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COMING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO RIGHT NOW GOING MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE MPX AREA...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN HOW FAR THIS PRECIP CURRENTLY IS /NW TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS OPPOSED TO WRN KS...WHICH IS WHERE MODELS WITH A MORE
NW SOLUTION WERE SHOWING IT SHOULD BE/.
FOR P-TYPE...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A MESS. FIRST OF ALL...THE COLD
AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH EAU CLAIRE STILL ABOVE 40 AT 4
AM. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CAMS ALONG WITH THE RAP
SHOW A MELTING WARM NOSE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS SC/SE MN UNTIL
CLOSE TO 21Z...WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING MORE
SLEET/FZRA INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY SWITCHING TO SNOW
THERE. THE WARMER TEMPS THIS MORNING DO NOT HELP THINGS
EITHER...ESPECIALLY IN WI...WHERE EAU CLAIRE MAY NOT SEE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER 21Z...WHICH IS A BIG REASON WHY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK TO BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OUT IN
THE FAR ERN MPX CWA. FOR TONIGHT...STILL HAVE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO
FZDZ AS THE PRECIP IS MOVING OUT...THOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY
OVERDONE...AS THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ICE CRYSTALS WILL LIKELY
SIGNAL THE END OF PRECIP AS WELL.
WITH THE ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...SAW NO NEED TO CHANGE IT WITH THOSE
AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TODAY...THOUGH
WITH CURRENT AMOUNTS EXPECTED...WOULD HAVE PROBABLY NOT ISSUED AN
ADVY IF ONE WERE NOT ALREADY OUT THERE.
TONIGHT...WE SEE STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN WITH SKIES QUICKLY
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE CLEAR SKIES WITH CONTINUE COLD
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL START TO BLACK FRIDAY...WITH
LOCATIONS OUT IN WEST CENTRAL MN LIKELY STARTING OUT NEAR 10
DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE MONTH SO
FAR/ALTHOUGH THATS NOT SAYING MUCH BECAUSE THE FORECAST AREA IS
AROUND +9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER./ ONE THING OF NOTE
ONFRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS THE EXTREMELY DRY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH HAVE PWATS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGY MINIMUM BETWEEN
0.07-0.10". THE AIRMASS MODERATES THIS WEEKEND AND SUNSHINE
COMBINED WITH MAINLY BROWN GROUND SHOULD GET OUR HIGHS INTO THE
MID 30S...RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SLOW PASSAGE OF
A CLOSED UPPER LOW - THE ONE THATS CURRENTLY SPINNING AWAY ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. UNLIKE...THE SNOW EVENT /OR LACK THERE OF/ TODAY
THAT HAS P-TYPE QUESTIONS AND AN FGEN BAND THAT HAS SLOWLY
DRIFTED FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...THERE IS ACTUALLY DECENT
CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT MON-TUE. WE ALWAYS
HAVE GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH EVENTS LIKE TODAY BECAUSE THE BAND
OF SNOW IS FOCUSED AND NOT VERY WIDE IN SCALE. SO...IF YOU DON`T
GET THE LOCATION QUITE RIGHT...LOCATIONS JUST OUTSIDE THE BAND
GET VERY LITTLE SNOW...AND THAT`S WITHOUT CONSIDERING THE WARMER
TEMPS AND REDUCED SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO SOME OF THE PRECIP FALLING
AS RAIN/SLEET AS IS THE CASE WITH TODAYS EVENT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS PASSAGE WILL
BE SLOW AND THE THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A 24-30HR WINDOW WITH LIFT OVER A VERY
LARGE SPATIAL AREA. IN FACT...THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OFF THE
GFS/ECMWF HAVE MEASURABLE SNOW FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO
ILLINOIS.THEREFORE...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE OUR FORECAST FOR
PROBABILITY OF SNOW INCREASE IN THAT MON-TUE TIME FRAME. IT
APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT A LOT OF LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW IN MN/WI...BUT IT WOULD OCCUR OVER A PROLONGED
WINDOW. UNLIKE BANDED SNOW /LIKE TODAY/...THE WIDESPREAD FORCING
MEANS IT WILL BE TOUGHER FOR THIS ONE TO "MISS" THE AREA
COMPLETELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
HRRR/HOPWRF/NAM ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT THE SNOW SOUTHEAST FOR
TODAY...SO HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH SNOW MENTION AT RWF/MSP/RNH
TODAY. LEFT EAU TAF PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED...THOUGH -RA COULD HOLD
ON LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THERE. STRATUS WILL HANG TOUGH
TODAY...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING CIGS TO DROP MUCH BELOW WHERE THEY
ARE NOW. HRRR IS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS TODAY/TONIGHT...THOUGH STRATUS RIGHT NOW EXTENDS CLEAR UP
INTO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC...SO CURRENT TAFS AND LAMP GUIDANCE MAY
BE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING SKIES OUT TONIGHT.
KMSP...IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK A BIT SHAKIER FOR SEEING SNOW AT
MSP...AND OUR BEST BET NOW IS LOOKING TO COME BETWEEN 16Z AND
20Z...WHICH IS WHEN RADAR RETURNS EXPANDING OVER ERN NEBRASKA MOVE
UP THIS DIRECTION. MOST GUIDANCE IS NOW HOLDING SNOWFALL AT MSP TO
AROUND JUST A HALF INCH...SO WILL BE PRETTY MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM
THAT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VRB.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ024>028.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ077-
078-084-085-091>093.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
FIRST...HERE WERE THE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE IMPENDING
SYSTEM FOR TODAY. THE POP GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENED QUITE A
BIT...PULLING THE MENTIONABLE PRECIP LINE DOWN TO ABOUT A REDWOOD
FALLS...ST. MICHAEL TO CAMBRIDGE LINE. TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WAS
DELAYED A LITTLE SOUTHEAST OF A FAIRMONT...RED WING TO LADYSMITH
LINE. QPF WAS REDUCED SOME...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST.
WITH LOWER QPF AND A DELAYED TRANSITION TO SNOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WERE CUT BACK AS WELL...WITH UP TO ABOUT 2 INCHES NOW FORECAST IN
THE ADVISORY WITH AMOUNTS IN THE TWIN CITIES RANGING FROM A TRACE IN
THE NW METRO WITH AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH IN THE SE METRO. FINALLY...WE
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIP SOME THIS MORNING AND STARTED PUSHING
THE END OF PRECIP TO THE EAST A BIT FASTER TONIGHT.
THE FRONT THAT WORKED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS STRETCHED OUT
FROM THE NE TX PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO THE I-90/I-94 SPLIT IN WI AND
ON UP TOWARD THE MARQUETTE MICHIGAN AREA AT 3 AM. SPC MESOANLYIS
SHOWS THAT FGEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS REALLY CENTERED DOWN IN THE 925-
850MB AREA...WITH NOT MUCH FGEN NOTED AT H7. WITH THE FORCING DOWN
LOW...THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CLOSER TO THE FRONT...HENCE
THE NUDGING OF QPF TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN FACT...EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN
OF THE HRRR KEEPS NUDGING THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...WITH OUR BEST SHOT AT PRECIP COMING FROM THE ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY STARTING TO BLOSSOM ON RADAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COMING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO RIGHT NOW GOING MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE MPX AREA...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN HOW FAR THIS PRECIP CURRENTLY IS /NW TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS OPPOSED TO WRN KS...WHICH IS WHERE MODELS WITH A MORE
NW SOLUTION WERE SHOWING IT SHOULD BE/.
FOR P-TYPE...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A MESS. FIRST OF ALL...THE COLD
AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH EAU CLAIRE STILL ABOVE 40 AT 4
AM. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CAMS ALONG WITH THE RAP
SHOW A MELTING WARM NOSE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS SC/SE MN UNTIL
CLOSE TO 21Z...WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING MORE
SLEET/FZRA INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY SWITCHING TO SNOW
THERE. THE WARMER TEMPS THIS MORNING DO NOT HELP THINGS
EITHER...ESPECIALLY IN WI...WHERE EAU CLAIRE MAY NOT SEE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER 21Z...WHICH IS A BIG REASON WHY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK TO BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OUT IN
THE FAR ERN MPX CWA. FOR TONIGHT...STILL HAVE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO
FZDZ AS THE PRECIP IS MOVING OUT...THOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY
OVERDONE...AS THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ICE CRYSTALS WILL LIKELY
SIGNAL THE END OF PRECIP AS WELL.
WITH THE ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...SAW NO NEED TO CHANGE IT WITH THOSE
AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TODAY...THOUGH
WITH CURRENT AMOUNTS EXPECTED...WOULD HAVE PROBABLY NOT ISSUED AN
ADVY IF ONE WERE NOT ALREADY OUT THERE.
TONIGHT...WE SEE STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN WITH SKIES QUICKLY
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE CLEAR SKIES WITH CONTINUE COLD
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL START TO BLACK FRIDAY...WITH
LOCATIONS OUT IN WEST CENTRAL MN LIKELY STARTING OUT NEAR 10
DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE MONTH SOFAR
/ALTHOUGH THATS NOT SAYING MUCH BECAUSE THE FORECAST AREA IS
AROUND +9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER./ ONE THING OF NOTE
ONFRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS THE EXTREMELY DRY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH HAVE PWATS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGY MINIMUM BETWEEN
0.07-0.10". THE AIRMASS MODERATES THIS WEEKEND AND SUNSHINE
COMBINED WITH MAINLY BROWN GROUND SHOULD GET OUR HIGHS INTO THE
MID 30S...RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SLOW PASSAGE OF
A CLOSED UPPER LOW - THE ONE THATS CURRENTLY SPINNING AWAY ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. UNLIKE...THE SNOW EVENT /OR LACK THERE OF/ TODAY
THAT HAS P-TYPE QUESTIONS AND AN FGEN BAND THAT HAS SLOWLY
DRIFTED FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...THERE IS ACTUALLY DECENT
CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT MON-TUE. WE ALWAYS
HAVE GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH EVENTS LIKE TODAY BECAUSE THE BAND
OF SNOW IS FOCUSED AND NOT VERY WIDE IN SCALE. SO...IF YOU DON`T
GET THE LOCATION QUITE RIGHT...LOCATIONS JUST OUTSIDE THE BAND
GET VERY LITTLE SNOW...AND THAT`S WITHOUT CONSIDERING THE WARMER
TEMPS AND REDUCED SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO SOME OF THE PRECIP FALLING
AS RAIN/SLEET AS IS THE CASE WITH TODAYS EVENT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS PASSAGE WILL
BE SLOW AND THE THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A 24-30HR WINDOW WITH LIFT OVER A VERY
LARGE SPATIAL AREA. IN FACT...THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OFF THE
GFS/ECMWF HAVE MEASURABLE SNOW FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO
ILLINOIS.THEREFORE...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE OUR FORECAST FOR
PROBABILITY OF SNOW INCREASE IN THAT MON-TUE TIME FRAME. IT
APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT A LOT OF LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW IN MN/WI...BUT IT WOULD OCCUR OVER A PROLONGED
WINDOW. UNLIKE BANDED SNOW /LIKE TODAY/...THE WIDESPREAD FORCING
MEANS IT WILL BE TOUGHER FOR THIS ONE TO "MISS" THE AREA
COMPLETELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...WITH MVFR FURTHER EAST. IFR CIGS WILL INCH EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE STEADY PRECIP A
BIT SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF RWF/MSP
LIKELY REMAINING DRY.
KMSP...CIGS HAVE SO FAR REMAINED ABOVE IFR...BUT THINK OVERNIGHT
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE LOWERING AND A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING A BIT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW
ARRIVES MID-LATE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE...
HEAVIER TOTALS SOUTHEAST.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR WIZ024>028.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ077-078-084-085-091>093.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
928 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 925 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015
Large area of rain stretching from the ARKLATEX into southern IL
continues to drift south. A quick glance at 00z NAM as well as
hi-res HRRR suggest that this southward shift will persist
overnight, with the heaviest rain threat remaining confined to
areas south of I44 in MO and s of I70 in IL, draped along strong
low level baroclinic zone north of slow moving cold front. Flood
Watch for central MO was cancelled earlier this evening, and based
on above trends have also cancelled the Flood Watch over the STL
Metro. Although the heavy rain threat should be confined to the
southern third of the CWA, I have remained fairly generous with
lower PoPs further north as area is RRQ of jet core over the Great
Lakes. Can`t totally rule out a threat of frozen precip in our far
NW counties late tonight, but very much uncertain about how
much...if any...precip will be able to develop in this area of
sub-freezing temps.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015
A strong wound-up storm system over the Great Basin region of the
western CONUS is expected to move little during this period,
maintaining an active southwest flow aloft over our region, with
disturbances training along. This will all intersect a pretty moist
airmass in place still over our region and result in high probs for
precipitation, especially for areas near and south of the I-70
corridor.
First, will keep the FFA going as-is. Despite rain tapering off in
central and now east-central MO, the rain is cycling to an extent
and should try to fill back in further north into central MO this
evening and overnight. Also, flooding effects are typically
delayed from when the rainfall occurs and so the flood threat does
not end right when the rainfall tapers. Will let the evening and
overnight shifts re-evaluate and cancel early as needed once the
effects on the area are better realized.
Second, surface temps will once again approach the freezing mark
across parts of northeast MO and west-central IL and with current
and expected vertical temp profiles, would be supportive of a brief
period of light freezing rain or sleet. Fortunately, much of the
threat for measurable pcpn will be south of this area and any
amounts, should they occur, should be very light. PoPs here are
below 50%.
Preferred the higher end of MOS temps for mins tonight and lower end
of MOS for maxes Saturday with extensive cloud cover in place.
TES
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015
(Sunday - Monday)
As the wound-up western CONUS storm begins to stir eastward, the
pattern over us remains status quo, with an active southwest flow
aloft and additional disturbances tracking thru, overrunning
moisture well to the north of the old surface boundary.
This should result in another widespread rain event, but QPF will be
light, with around a tenth of an inch forecast and should have
minimal to no impact on flooding concerns.
Good agrement then continues on what to do with the storm system
center, bringing it out into the Plains by Monday and track it to our
north Monday night. During this process, a strong disturbance will
rotate around the southern periphery and impact our area Monday. QPF
looks low, with a tenth of an inch or less forecast for this event,
but probs remain on the high side, with likely PoPs forecast.
Temps will be at or a tad below average for daytime maxes, but remain
above average for nighttime mins--all because of the extensive cloud
cover that continues to be forecast.
(Tuesday - Next Friday)
Good model agreement begins to go away by late Wednesday, with a
pair of dry days expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
GFS is showing a stronger storm system trying to take shape on
Thursday than the EC, but this system at first glance looks to be
moisture starved and have kept PoPs on the dry side for now.
Consensus then re-achieved for Friday with building heights and
ridging overhead.
With cold air forecast to continue to be locked up well north, temps
will begin this period around average but trend warmer by the end of
the week with the building heights aloft and southerly flow at the
surface.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015
IFR ceilings will continue to prevail through the night and into
Saturday morning. Expecting slow improvement from north to south
on Saturday...tho IFR will probably continue to prevail across
most of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois through the end
of the day. Rain will slowly taper off to a few showers or patchy
drizzle from north to south as well...but will likely hang around
most of the day across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
North-northeast flow will prevail across the area through 00Z
Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
IFR ceilings are likely to prevail at Lambert at least through the
night and and Saturday morning. There will likely be occasional
breaks in the IFR, but I think those breaks will be few and far
between. Guidance does indicate that ceilings will rise above
1000 FT Saturday afternoon and the rain should come to an end
during the late morning or early afternoon as well. Expect MVFR
ceilings with heights below 2000 FT to prevail during the
afternoon and into the Saturday evening.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Randolph IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
418 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2015
Focus continues to be precip chances thru the afternoon.
Expect strong sly winds to continue thru today. A strong swly LLJ is
expected to continue over the region today as well. Mdls continue to
depict broad areas of moisture convergence across the area today.
This is expected to result in light SHRA off and on thru much of the
day. The better chances appear to continue to be across nrn portions
of the CWA. Believe will continue with higher PoPs across this area,
tho expect little accumulation with these SHRA.
That said, the area of more stratiform and somewhat heavier RA shud
be moving into the nwrn portions of the CWA late this afternoon into
the evening hrs.
Another forecast problem for today is temps. While expect extensive
cloud cover across the area, the strong sly flow shud help push
temps warmer. Have trended slightly above the cooler guidance for
today.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2015
(Tonight through Saturday )
Not many changes to the prev forecast thru this period. Mdls are in
fairly good agreement and have slowed onset of stratiform precip
this evening. Other main change was to speed up swd progression of
precip tomorrow night into Sat.
Despite this slower onset timing, have kept the Flood Watch as-is
except to extend the watch to 18z Sat. While precip will likely
continue into Sat afternoon, believe the heaviest precip will have
ended, tho a residual flooding threat may linger.
Focus begins to shift to p-type issues late Fri night into Sat
morning, and again late Sat night into Sun morning. As the large
arctic airmass builds into the area, cold air will advect into the
region as precip comes to an end. Have not trended as cold as some
guidance and future forecasts may need to speed up the CAA and pull
the FZRA further swd sooner than the current forecast. There is also
some indication that the low level cold air may be deep enuf that
sleet will also be possible. With sfc temps being warmer, believe
that chances for ice accumulation are low, especially given the low
chance of occurrence. Will need to continue to monitor this time
period and watch trends with future updates.
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Again, not many changes from the prev forecast for this period. The
GEM continues to be a cold soln and have trended twd the warmer
GFS/ECMWF solns. Have continued low PoPs thru Mon due to differences
among mdl guidance. However, it appears all precip shud be out of
the area on Tues.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015
Ceilings across the FA have increased throughout the evening as
some lower level dry air as worked north across the region.
However, both RAP and NAM low level RH progs are forecasting
renewed saturation during the predawn hours. Since SREF MVFR cig
probabilities are also coming up from southwest MO into west
central IL during the morning hours on Thursday, have introduced a
TEMPO for MVFR ceilings (1500-2000 ft) during the morning at both
KCOU and KUIN. Some lowering of ceilings are also expected in the
STL Metro area, but believe here the bases will remain above 3kft.
Strong southerly low level flow also persists, so will maintain
LLWS in the forecast until gusts come up early Thanksgiving
morning.
Precip is going to remain a hit and miss proposition. Spotty
showers currently extending from mid MO to central IL will likely
persist for several hours, and it`s certainly possible that
additional spotty, light, WAA-driven showers will reform over the
northwest half of the CWA throughout the predawn and morning hours
on Thursday. However, it certainly appears that the main rain
threat will be entering the area tomorrow evening, and
especially after 06z, as cold front finally pushes into western
sections of the CWA. Not only will the rainfall become heavier
and widespread, but ceilings and visbilibites will likely take a
nose dive with FROPA at both KCOU and KUIN after 06z.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR ceilings aoa 4kft are expected overnight
and into most of Thanksgiving Day. Strong low level jet will
maintain LLWS threat until mixing commences and transfers some of
the higher winds to the surface..in the 12-15z time frame.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 67 52 56 39 / 30 100 100 80
Quincy 66 39 41 32 / 70 100 60 30
Columbia 67 40 42 34 / 70 100 80 60
Jefferson City 68 42 45 35 / 70 100 90 70
Salem 65 56 58 42 / 20 100 100 90
Farmington 64 54 57 39 / 30 100 100 90
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning FOR Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St.
Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning FOR
Clinton IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
316 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2015
Focus continues to be precip chances thru the afternoon.
Expect strong sly winds to continue thru today. A strong swly LLJ is
expected to continue over the region today as well. Mdls continue to
depict broad areas of moisture convergence across the area today.
This is expected to result in light SHRA off and on thru much of the
day. The better chances appear to continue to be across nrn portions
of the CWA. Believe will continue with higher PoPs across this area,
tho expect little accumulation with these SHRA.
That said, the area of more stratiform and somewhat heavier RA shud
be moving into the nwrn portions of the CWA late this afternoon into
the evening hrs.
Another forecast problem for today is temps. While expect extensive
cloud cover across the area, the strong sly flow shud help push
temps warmer. Have trended slightly above the cooler guidance for
today.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015
(Thanksgiving Day - Saturday Night)
A strong wound-up storm system over the Great Basin region of the
western CONUS is expected to move little during this period,
maintaining an active southwest flow aloft over our region, and
shooting out pieces of energy or distrbances our way as well.
The first of these disturbances is expected to arrive late Thursday
afternoon, with essentially a near continuous train thru late
Saturday after that. This will be further augmented by a slow
moving cold front and rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The
cold front will begin moving thru late Thursday afternoon in
northeast MO and will take all of Friday and much of Friday night
to move thru the remainder of the forecast area.
Despite much cooler air ushering in behind the cold front,
temperatures are expected to stay above freezing for most areas thru
this entire period and will keep pcpn-types as all rain.
The one exception could be in parts of northeast MO and west-central
IL late Friday night and early Saturday morning, where temps will be
around the freezing mark. Fortunately, much of the pcpn by that
time should be to the south with only light spotty pcpn currently
anticipated.
Otherwise, the main concern will be the prolonged period of heavy
rainfall--especially for parts of southeast MO and far southern IL--
where rainfall totals may top 4 inches by Saturday morning. A Flood
Watch has already been issued and considering that the rainfall
forecast has changed little since then, if not the heavy QPF axis
sliding a bit further south, no change was needed to the current
area. The only adjustment seriously considered was an extension in
time into Saturday for southeast MO and far southern IL, but wanted
to take another look or two at that to see if the southern trend
continues.
Temps will be quite mild for late November ahead of the front, but
will rapidly drop to below average for daytime maxes behind it, with
readings in some areas not getting out of the 30s. Fortunately,
plenty of warm air aloft should keep the pcpn as rain unless surface
temps can slip below 32F.
(Sunday - Next Wednesday)
Model solutions continue to vary quite a bit out in this period but
the general theme continues to be the storm out west gets nudged
into the main flow and tracks generally east, passing mainly to our
north by Tuesday sliding a surface TROF thru on Monday. Looks like
another round of primarily rain on Monday with this TROF. Temps
look to be around average for this time of year, with clear absence
of any significant cold air surges from the north, but also absent
any strong influence from either the moist Gulf of Mexico or the
much milder air to the south.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015
Ceilings across the FA have increased throughout the evening as
some lower level dry air as worked north across the region.
However, both RAP and NAM low level RH progs are forecasting
renewed saturation during the predawn hours. Since SREF MVFR cig
probabilities are also coming up from southwest MO into west
central IL during the morning hours on Thursday, have introduced a
TEMPO for MVFR ceilings (1500-2000 ft) during the morning at both
KCOU and KUIN. Some lowering of ceilings are also expected in the
STL Metro area, but believe here the bases will remain above 3kft.
Strong southerly low level flow also persists, so will maintain
LLWS in the forecast until gusts come up early Thanksgiving
morning.
Precip is going to remain a hit and miss proposition. Spotty
showers currently extending from mid MO to central IL will likely
persist for several hours, and it`s certainly possible that
additional spotty, light, WAA-driven showers will reform over the
northwest half of the CWA throughout the predawn and morning hours
on Thursday. However, it certainly appears that the main rain
threat will be entering the area tomorrow evening, and
especially after 06z, as cold front finally pushes into western
sections of the CWA. Not only will the rainfall become heavier
and widespread, but ceilings and visbilibites will likely take a
nose dive with FROPA at both KCOU and KUIN after 06z.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR ceilings aoa 4kft are expected overnight
and into most of Thanksgiving Day. Strong low level jet will
maintain LLWS threat until mixing commences and transfers some of
the higher winds to the surface..in the 12-15z time frame.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 67 52 56 39 / 30 100 100 80
Quincy 66 39 41 32 / 70 100 60 30
Columbia 67 40 42 34 / 70 100 80 60
Jefferson City 68 42 45 35 / 70 100 90 70
Salem 65 56 58 42 / 20 100 100 90
Farmington 64 54 57 39 / 30 100 100 90
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning FOR Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St.
Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning FOR
Clinton IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1140 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015
First weak shortwave trough is currently exiting to the northeast
but area will stay in persistent southwesterly flow aloft through
tonight. There will be some weak vort maxes that will move through
the flow aloft that will provide some weak ascent above increasing
moisture convergence because of the low level jet. Rain chances
will increase through the late evening and overnight over central
and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois where the
best low level moisture convergence will be.
Temperatures will not drop too much tonight with strong warm air
advection and dewpoints rising through tonight. Expect lows to be
closer to the warmer MAV MOS guidance.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015
(Thanksgiving Day - Saturday Night)
A strong wound-up storm system over the Great Basin region of the
western CONUS is expected to move little during this period,
maintaining an active southwest flow aloft over our region, and
shooting out pieces of energy or distrbances our way as well.
The first of these disturbances is expected to arrive late Thursday
afternoon, with essentially a near continuous train thru late
Saturday after that. This will be further augmented by a slow
moving cold front and rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The
cold front will begin moving thru late Thursday afternoon in
northeast MO and will take all of Friday and much of Friday night
to move thru the remainder of the forecast area.
Despite much cooler air ushering in behind the cold front,
temperatures are expected to stay above freezing for most areas thru
this entire period and will keep pcpn-types as all rain.
The one exception could be in parts of northeast MO and west-central
IL late Friday night and early Saturday morning, where temps will be
around the freezing mark. Fortunately, much of the pcpn by that
time should be to the south with only light spotty pcpn currently
anticipated.
Otherwise, the main concern will be the prolonged period of heavy
rainfall--especially for parts of southeast MO and far southern IL--
where rainfall totals may top 4 inches by Saturday morning. A Flood
Watch has already been issued and considering that the rainfall
forecast has changed little since then, if not the heavy QPF axis
sliding a bit further south, no change was needed to the current
area. The only adjustment seriously considered was an extension in
time into Saturday for southeast MO and far southern IL, but wanted
to take another look or two at that to see if the southern trend
continues.
Temps will be quite mild for late November ahead of the front, but
will rapidly drop to below average for daytime maxes behind it, with
readings in some areas not getting out of the 30s. Fortunately,
plenty of warm air aloft should keep the pcpn as rain unless surface
temps can slip below 32F.
(Sunday - Next Wednesday)
Model solutions continue to vary quite a bit out in this period but
the general theme continues to be the storm out west gets nudged
into the main flow and tracks generally east, passing mainly to our
north by Tuesday sliding a surface TROF thru on Monday. Looks like
another round of primarily rain on Monday with this TROF. Temps
look to be around average for this time of year, with clear absence
of any significant cold air surges from the north, but also absent
any strong influence from either the moist Gulf of Mexico or the
much milder air to the south.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015
Ceilings across the FA have increased throughout the evening as
some lower level dry air as worked north across the region.
However, both RAP and NAM low level RH progs are forecasting
renewed saturation during the predawn hours. Since SREF MVFR cig
probabilities are also coming up from southwest MO into west
central IL during the morning hours on Thursday, have introduced a
TEMPO for MVFR ceilings (1500-2000 ft) during the morning at both
KCOU and KUIN. Some lowering of ceilings are also expected in the
STL Metro area, but believe here the bases will remain above 3kft.
Strong southerly low level flow also persists, so will maintain
LLWS in the forecast until gusts come up early Thanksgiving
morning.
Precip is going to remain a hit and miss proposition. Spotty
showers currently extending from mid MO to central IL will likely
persist for several hours, and it`s certainly possible that
additional spotty, light, WAA-driven showers will reform over the
northwest half of the CWA throughout the predawn and morning hours
on Thursday. However, it certainly appears that the main rain
threat will be entering the area tomorrow evening, and
especially after 06z, as cold front finally pushes into western
sections of the CWA. Not only will the rainfall become heavier
and widespread, but ceilings and visbilibites will likely take a
nose dive with FROPA at both KCOU and KUIN after 06z.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR ceilings aoa 4kft are expected overnight
and into most of Thanksgiving Day. Strong low level jet will
maintain LLWS threat until mixing commences and transfers some of
the higher winds to the surface..in the 12-15z time frame.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday night FOR
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St.
Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve
MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday night FOR
Clinton IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
632 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HEADLINE
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
INCREASING MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS REGION OF NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. ANALYSIS OF
BUFR SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER ENCOMPASSING THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE INITIALLY...BUT REVEAL ENOUGH TOP DOWN
SATURATION FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...THIS CHANGEOVER WILL BE QUICK...LEADING TO
THE GREATEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
FOR THE SANDHILLS...NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80...THE DRY LAYER IN THE DGZ REMAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. IN
ADDITION...A NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER WILL NEED ERODE FOR ACCUMULATING
FZDZ...WHICH IS SHOWN TO OCCUR GENERALLY AFTER 15Z FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE WILL BE
LIGHT...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...A TRACE TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE. POTENTIAL
FZDZ ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE A TRACE TO AS MUCH AS
A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH AT BEST. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY WINTER HEADLINES. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED
THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WHICH REMAIN
APPARENT. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST...WHEREAS THE GFS IS SLOW. THE
FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NAM AS THE ONSET OF QPF FROM RECENT
STORMS HAS BEEN FASTER THAN THE MODELS INDICATED. ARCTIC AIR WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THAT WILL BE UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40 WITH THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE AND THAT WILL MAKE A
DIFFERENCE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TIMING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW OVER NEARLY ALL
OF NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHILE THE NAM SHOWS A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD FAVOR A DRY INTRUSION IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. THE NAM STILL FAVORS SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE SNOWFALL OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BUT NOT REAL STRONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW
OCCURRING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 61 OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEST OF 61...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT
FOR MVFR CIGS BY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE AND
PERHAPS SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE HRRR INDICATES LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN
NEB WITH PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS SWRN
AROUND 16Z. IF CIGS CAN LOWER TO 3KT THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
326 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015
TRANSITIONED A LARGE PORTION OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING THAT WAS
IN EFFECT TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WHILE WE HAVE HAD
ACCUMULATION ON ABOVE GROUND SURFACES TODAY...ROAD CONDITIONS IN
MOST OF THE WARNING AREA REMAINED RELATIVELY GOOD WITH PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES REMAINING JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE HAD MULTIPLE
REPORTS OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICING ON EVERYTHING
ELSE ABOVE GROUND THOUGH. OPPD REPORTING ONLY 107 CUSTOMERS
WITHOUT POWER AT 3 PM. STILL SEEING A FREEZING RAIN/ICE PELLET MIX
ALONG I80 CORRIDOR...AND OVERALL RADAR INTENSITY IS ALSO WINDING
DOWN. KEPT THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE TEMPS ARE JUST NOW APPROACHING
FREEZING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS PICKING UP THE ABOVE GROUND
GLAZING THAT ELSEWHERE HAS EXPERIENCED THROUGH THE DAY. THUS...THE
AREA IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE WOODS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR WINTRY
WEATHER... BUT WANTED TO ADJUST THE HEADLINES WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE TO BETTER REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS.
PRECIP WILL PROBABLY COME TO AN END ALONG/NORTH OF I80 THROUGH
EARLY EVENING... BUT THE SECOND SURGE COMING OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE TO AREAS
SOUTH OF I80 BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THAT MAY MOVE OUT BY MIDNIGHT...
AND FINALLY A THIRD SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING OUT SOUTHWEST KANSAS
COULD BRING ADDITIONAL FLURRIES BACK TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP LINGERING IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH OF
I80...THEN FINALLY PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE A COLD BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
AND WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.
DRY SATURDAY US WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WE MAY START
TO SEE INFLUENCES OF THAT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
SPLITTING THE FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST...WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACROSS WESTERN HALF...AND MIXED PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN
HALF...BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015
A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE
ONTO THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC
FEATURES...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIKELY...AGAIN WITH A
WINTRY MIX...BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS MY WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...AND MIXED ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 77...THEN ENDING AS ALL
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS IT IS JUST OUTSIDE OUR WINDOW OF QPF AND SNOWFALL.
PRECIP FINALLY OUT OF HERE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
KOFK REMAINS ALL SNOW AND SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON. KOMA HAS ALREADY REPORTED FREEZING RAIN
AND SEE A STRIPE OF SLEET THAT SHOULD MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE THEY CHANGE TO SNOW. AS FOR KLNK...AS OF TAF
ISSUANCE...THEY REMAIN ALL LIQUID BUT SHOULD SEE A -FZRA MIX SOON
WITH SLEET...THEN A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE RAP WHICH DEVELOPS MORE PCPN AFTER 06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045-
051>053-065>068-078-088>090.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ091>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-
032>034-042>044-050.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-
056-069-079-080.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ090-091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1151 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THERE IS A BAND OF MDT-HVY SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING OVER PORTIONS OF
POLK/YORK/HAMILTON/MERRICK COUNTIES. THIS BAND WILL DROP 1 TO
POSSIBLY 2" BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 1 PM. JUST RCVD A REPORT OF 1"
IN OSCEOLA FROM AN OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE.
THE FCST IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY COMPLICATED AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL
BE NECESSARY. 88D MOSAIC SHOWS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP OVER WRN KS
MOVING NE. SO EXPECT PRECIP TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z WRF-
ARW/NMMB AND THE DEPICT THIS WELL. THIS WILL LOWER ICE AMTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP IS HEADING OUT OF NM INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. THE HI-RES MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE BRING THIS PRECIP
INTO ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA THIS EVE/TONIGHT.
MORE LATER...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
SITUATION SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING AS EXPECTED. WHILE PRECIP HAS BEEN
LIGHT...WE`VE RECEIVED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF ICY ROADS N OF THE
TRI-CITIES. IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH.
THE 12Z NAM WILL BE DELAYED.
12Z SOUNDINGS: OAX AND DDC SHOW THAT THE WARM NOSE IS SATURATED.
SO WETBULB COOLING WILL NO LONGER BE A FACTOR AND INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING THE WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SFC-BASED
COLD LAYER. UEX 88D SHOWS IT`S ABOUT 3K FT DEEP. LBF IS COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...AND WE`VE RECEIVED REPORTS OF IP/SN ON THE
NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD.
WE WILL BE USING DUAL POL TO HELP DIAGNOSE PRECIP TYPES.
PLEASE SEE 704 AM SPC MESO DISC FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THE SOLE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM BEARING DOWN ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPES.
PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ON THE FALLING TREND WITH NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW
REPORTED NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES AND MID TO UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT CAN BE COUNTED AS FOR SURE
WITH THIS FORECAST...MAINLY THAT MOST EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME TYPE
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
ON THE TEMPERATURES PROFILE AND RESULTING PRECIP TYPES.
THIS LATEST FORECAST WAS PUT TOGETHER USING A BLEND OF THE
NAM...HRRR...AND RAP MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SEEMING TO
INITILIZE THE BEST OF THE THREE. THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS AN
OUTLIER AND IS TOO COLD OVERALL. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...WHICH LOOKING AT THE NAM SOLUTION WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AS FAR NORTH AS THE TRI CITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z. THIS
COULD PUT A HUGE DAMPER ON SNOWFALL FORECASTS AND POTENTIALLY UP
ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM MAY NOT EVEN DIP INTO THE
FREEZING MARK FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON FORECAST ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS AND MAY INDICATE MORE RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND A
FASTER DISSIPATION OF THE WARM NOSE. ALTHOUGH NOT REALLY EXPECTED
...SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IN
THE TRANSITION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CONTINUED SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION AS THE CLOSED LOW IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE PLAINS.
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NEVER COMPLETELY GOES AWAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS SOME SMALL POPS LINGER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN
OUR SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON
FRIDAY...WE ONCE AGAIN GET SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT THAT COULD GIVE
US SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FROM LATE FRIDAY ALL THE WAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO AT TIME LOSE THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER...AND WE MAY WIND UP WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE IS
SOME CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE EAST
ENOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT TO END OUR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT
APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH BY MONDAY TO
POSSIBLY GIVE US JUST SNOW...IF JUST A LITTLE BIT. THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER...BUT JUST ENOUGH QPF TO PERHAPS
GIVE US SOME HEADACHES WITH THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. AS
WE DRAW CLOSER TO THIS TIME PERIOD...WE HOPE TO PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND TIMING. I ALSO DO NOT EXPECT A CONSTANT
PRECIPITATION SITUATION FOR THE LONG TERM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK
AS CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.
RIDGING BUILDS IN BY MID-WEEK AND KEEPS US DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
...WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MAYBE SOME LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRI AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THIS AFTERNOON: IFR SNOW WILL CONT THRU 20Z-21Z THEN A BREAK IS
EXPECTED. TIMING MAY BE OFF A LITTLE ON THIS. THEN IMPROVING
CIGS/VSBYS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON VSBYS. MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER. N WINDS 15-25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
TONIGHT: POSSIBLY VFR TO START...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR OR
IFR -SN ROUGHLY 02Z-05Z. THEN VFR CIGS AROUND 7-10K FT. N WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ064-076-
077-086-087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-082>085.
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005-
006-017-018.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERALL. CAN NOW SEE SLEET SHOWING UP
IN THE ZDR STRIPE WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFIED BY GROUND TRUTH.
NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE IS SNOW AND TO THE SOUTHEAST IS RAIN WITH
FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THE AREA WIND SENSORS ARE REPORTING CALM
CONDITIONS WHICH IS A GOOD INDICATION OF THE ANEMOMETER FREEZING
UP. ROAD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL WITH THE MAIN ICING
BEING REPORTED ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE RAP AND IT`S DEVELOPMENT OF MORE PCPN
AFTER 06Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING PCPN CHANGE OVER AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SNOW
AMOUNTS. CURRENT SFC OBS INDICATE LEADING EDGE OF COLD FRONT HAS
PRETTY MUCH PUSHED THRU THE CWA EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IA TO S-CNTRL
KS WITH STOUT INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BNDRY.
AT THIS POINT JUST MATTER OF TIME NOW BEFORE PCPN ACTIVITY GETS
UNDERWAY AS CONTINUOUS MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE SLOW MOVING SFC
BNDRY LEADS TO A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RA/FZRA/SLEET MIX TO SNOW
AS THE CAA LAYER DEEPENS. MAIN AREA OF SN ACCUM THOUGH SHOULD BE
CONFINED OVER THE NRN CWA WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN CWA WILL FAVOR A FREEZING RAIN
EPISODE AS THE COLD AIR CUTS UNDERNEATH THE WARMER AIR MASS LAYER
ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ROADWAY ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A
QUARTER INCH...ASSUMING OF COURSE PAVEMENT TEMPS WILL BE SUB-ZERO.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE REMAINDER OF THE
COUNTIES CURRENTLY UNDER A WATCH TO A WARNING. THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WHEN BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
SHIFTS EWD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS POINT AS BOTH THE ECM/GFS SUGGEST
PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PDS IN
RESPONSE TO MOIST UPGLIDE COUPLED WITH DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER WRN CONUS. ECM AND GFS ARE IN
AGREEMENT DOMINATE PCPN TYPE WILL BE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
KOFK REMAINS ALL SNOW AND SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON. KOMA HAS ALREADY REPORTED FREEZING RAIN
AND SEE A STRIPE OF SLEET THAT SHOULD MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE THEY CHANGE TO SNOW. AS FOR KLNK...AS OF TAF
ISSUANCE...THEY REMAIN ALL LIQUID BUT SHOULD SEE A -FZRA MIX SOON
WITH SLEET...THEN A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE RAP WHICH DEVELOPS MORE PCPN AFTER 06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045-
051>053-065-066-078.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ067-068-
088>090-092.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR NEZ091-093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-
018-030>034-042>044-050.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-
069.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ079-080.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ090-091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KERN
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
827 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 827 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
SITUATION SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING AS EXPECTED. WHILE PRECIP HAS BEEN
LIGHT...WE`VE RECEIVED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF ICY ROADS N OF THE
TRI-CITIES. IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH.
THE 12Z NAM WILL BE DELAYED.
12Z SOUNDINGS: OAX AND DDC SHOW THAT THE WARM NOSE IS SATURATED.
SO WETBULB COOLING WILL NO LONGER BE A FACTOR AND INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING THE WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SFC-BASED
COLD LAYER. UEX 88D SHOWS IT`S ABOUT 3K FT DEEP. LBF IS COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...AND WE`VE RECEIVED REPORTS OF IP/SN ON THE
NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD.
WE WILL BE USING DUAL POL TO HELP DIAGNOSE PRECIP TYPES.
PLEASE SEE 704 AM SPC MESO DISC FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THE SOLE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM BEARING DOWN ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPES.
PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ON THE FALLING TREND WITH NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW
REPORTED NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES AND MID TO UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT CAN BE COUNTED AS FOR SURE
WITH THIS FORECAST...MAINLY THAT MOST EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME TYPE
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
ON THE TEMPERATURES PROFILE AND RESULTING PRECIP TYPES.
THIS LATEST FORECAST WAS PUT TOGETHER USING A BLEND OF THE
NAM...HRRR...AND RAP MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SEEMING TO
INITILIZE THE BEST OF THE THREE. THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS AN
OUTLIER AND IS TOO COLD OVERALL. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...WHICH LOOKING AT THE NAM SOLUTION WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AS FAR NORTH AS THE TRI CITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z. THIS
COULD PUT A HUGE DAMPER ON SNOWFALL FORECASTS AND POTENTIALLY UP
ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM MAY NOT EVEN DIP INTO THE
FREEZING MARK FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON FORECAST ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS AND MAY INDICATE MORE RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND A
FASTER DISSIPATION OF THE WARM NOSE. ALTHOUGH NOT REALLY EXPECTED
...SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IN
THE TRANSITION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CONTINUED SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION AS THE CLOSED LOW IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE PLAINS.
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NEVER COMPLETELY GOES AWAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS SOME SMALL POPS LINGER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN
OUR SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON
FRIDAY...WE ONCE AGAIN GET SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT THAT COULD GIVE
US SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FROM LATE FRIDAY ALL THE WAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO AT TIME LOSE THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER...AND WE MAY WIND UP WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE IS
SOME CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE EAST
ENOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT TO END OUR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT
APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH BY MONDAY TO
POSSIBLY GIVE US JUST SNOW...IF JUST A LITTLE BIT. THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER...BUT JUST ENOUGH QPF TO PERHAPS
GIVE US SOME HEADACHES WITH THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. AS
WE DRAW CLOSER TO THIS TIME PERIOD...WE HOPE TO PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND TIMING. I ALSO DO NOT EXPECT A CONSTANT
PRECIPITATION SITUATION FOR THE LONG TERM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK
AS CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.
RIDGING BUILDS IN BY MID-WEEK AND KEEPS US DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
...WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MAYBE SOME LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL AFFECT
THE TAF SITES TODAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW BY LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ064-076-
077-086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-082>085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ087.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005-
006-017-018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
516 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THE SOLE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM BEARING DOWN ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION TYPES.
PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
ON THE FALLING TREND WITH NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW REPORTED
NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. THERE
ARE A FEW THINGS THAT CAN BE COUNTED AS FOR SURE WITH THIS
FORECAST...MAINLY THAT MOST EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
TEMPERATURES PROFILE AND RESULTING PRECIP TYPES.
THIS LATEST FORECAST WAS PUT TOGETHER USING A BLEND OF THE
NAM...HRRR...AND RAP MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SEEMING TO
INITILIZE THE BEST OF THE THREE. THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS AN OUTLIER
AND IS TOO COLD OVERALL. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE WARM AIR
ALOFT...WHICH LOOKING AT THE NAM SOLUTION WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
AS FAR NORTH AS THE TRI CITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z. THIS COULD PUT A
HUGE DAMPER ON SNOWFALL FORECASTS AND POTENTIALLY UP ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS
SUGGESTED BY THE NAM MAY NOT EVEN DIP INTO THE FREEZING MARK FOR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY
ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON FORECAST ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS AND
MAY INDICATE MORE RAIN. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE AND A FASTER DISSIPATION OF THE WARM NOSE.
ALTHOUGH NOT REALLY EXPECTED...SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IN THE TRANSITION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CONTINUED SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION AS THE CLOSED LOW IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE PLAINS.
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NEVER COMPLETELY GOES AWAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SOME SMALL POPS LINGER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN OUR
SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON
FRIDAY...WE ONCE AGAIN GET SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT THAT COULD GIVE US
SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FROM LATE FRIDAY ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO AT TIME LOSE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER...AND WE MAY WIND UP WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE IS SOME
CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE EAST ENOUGH BY
MONDAY NIGHT TO END OUR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE
WARM AIR WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH BY MONDAY TO POSSIBLY GIVE US JUST
SNOW...IF JUST A LITTLE BIT. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW
PRODUCER...BUT JUST ENOUGH QPF TO PERHAPS GIVE US SOME HEADACHES
WITH THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THIS
TIME PERIOD...WE HOPE TO PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION TYPES AND TIMING. I
ALSO DO NOT EXPECT A CONSTANT PRECIPITATION SITUATION FOR THE LONG
TERM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW.
RIDGING BUILDS IN BY MID-WEEK AND KEEPS US DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WORK
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MAYBE SOME LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL AFFECT
THE TAF SITES TODAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW BY LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ064-076-
077-086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-082>085.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ087.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005-
006-017-018.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1058 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN FOR UNION COUNTY AND TO
DECREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
NM TODAY. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR A RATON AIRPORT
TO SPRINGER TO TUCUMCARI LINE. FREEZING RAIN BEING REPORTED AT
CLAYTON AS SHALLOW COLD AIR UNDERCUTS THE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1035 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
COMPLEX/INCREASINGLY HIGH-IMPACT WX SCENARIO THROUGH THE FCST PD
AND BEYOND...PARTICULARLY TERMINAL SITES ACROSS ERN NM. LEADING
EDGE OF A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL CONT TO PRESS
SOUTHWARD TODAY. THIS COLD BUT SHALLOW AIR MASS WILL BE TOPPED BY
A SUB-TROPICAL AIR STREAM CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-RECORD MOISTURE CONTENT FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
AS A RESULT...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TO INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY EXPAND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD
AIR WILL MAKE ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS MUCH SLOWER TODAY...BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
TOWARD SUNSET....EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS
MID/LATE EVENING AND THE KROW AREA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. MT
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND OF LONG DURATION...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 00Z. EASTERLY SFC WINDS TO 45 KT TO IMPACT KABQ AND KSAF
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS THE COLD AIR SPILLS WESTWARD. KGUP AND KFMN
LEAST IMPACTED TERMINALS WHERE VFR CIGS FORECAST. KJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY...THEN SURGE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON GUSTY
EAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. THE
RESULT WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SNOW FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE
EAST AND IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER CENTRAL AND WEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE FASTER PROGRESS THAN THE MODELS CAN
KEEP UP WITH. WIND SHIFT HAS ARRIVED AT KTCC WITH A CORRESPONDING
NEARLY 20 DEGREE DECREASE IN THE DRY BULB TEMPERATURE. TRIED TO
ADJUST FOR THE FASTER TIMING TEMPERATURE AND WIND WISE...LEANING
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE ALA THE ECMWF AND MET AT LEAST IN THE
PLAINS...BUT STILL THE FORECAST MAY LIKELY BE LAGGING BEHIND.
NOT ONLY SOME RATHER LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT
POP WISE AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME
BANDED PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS MORESO LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THINKING THE COLDEST AIR MAY ARRIVE A BIT
LATER SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TIMING WISE WITH WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.
HOWEVER LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME OF THE BANDED PRECIPITATION MAY
START SOONER...AS IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT
BASIN UPPER LOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW WILL BE SLOWER TO
EJECT AND A TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD BE MORE
PERSISTENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
THEREFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER. THE MID WEEK FORECAST
ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT RATHER A STOUT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A WINTRY SPELL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME
TODAY...INCREASING SOME IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY INVADED
UNION COUNTY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ENCROACH FARTHER INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL PICK UP SPEED...PRESSING FARTHER SOUTH
AND WEST INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS COLDER AIR PLUNGES IN WITH THE
FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL TURN WINTRY...FIRST IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NM TODAY...SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN RANGE FROM A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO A MIXED BAG OF
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. A STRONG CANYON WIND WILL ALSO
LIKELY SPILL INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER NM INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GRADUALLY LESSENING INTO SUNDAY AS THE
LOW EXITS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN IS STILL
DEPICTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AS THE VAST LOW EXITS
FARTHER AWAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A TRAILING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT COULD KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONGOING...MOSTLY
OVER EASTERN NM. THIS PATTERN COULD COME WITH SOME BOUTS OF STRONGER
BREEZES...BUT FOR NOW NO CRITICAL WEATHER IS FORESEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER...THAT MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ526-534-537-539.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ535-536.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512>515-523-527>533.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ538-540.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511-516>518-521-522-524.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1035 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
COMPLEX/INCREASINGLY HIGH-IMPACT WX SCENARIO THROUGH THE FCST PD
AND BEYOND...PARTICULARLY TERMINAL SITES ACROSS ERN NM. LEADING
EDGE OF A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL CONT TO PRESS
SOUTHWARD TODAY. THIS COLD BUT SHALLOW AIR MASS WILL BE TOPPED BY
A SUB-TROPICAL AIR STREAM CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-RECORD MOISTURE CONTENT FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
AS A RESULT...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TO INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY EXPAND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD
AIR WILL MAKE ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS MUCH SLOWER TODAY...BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
TOWARD SUNSET....EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS
MID/LATE EVENING AND THE KROW AREA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. MT
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND OF LONG DURATION...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 00Z. EASTERLY SFC WINDS TO 45 KT TO IMPACT KABQ AND KSAF
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS THE COLD AIR SPILLS WESTWARD. KGUP AND KFMN
LEAST IMPACTED TERMINALS WHERE VFR CIGS FORECAST. KJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY...THEN SURGE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON GUSTY
EAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. THE
RESULT WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SNOW FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE
EAST AND IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER CENTRAL AND WEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE FASTER PROGRESS THAN THE MODELS CAN
KEEP UP WITH. WIND SHIFT HAS ARRIVED AT KTCC WITH A CORRESPONDING
NEARLY 20 DEGREE DECREASE IN THE DRY BULB TEMPERATURE. TRIED TO
ADJUST FOR THE FASTER TIMING TEMPERATURE AND WIND WISE...LEANING
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE ALA THE ECMWF AND MET AT LEAST IN THE
PLAINS...BUT STILL THE FORECAST MAY LIKELY BE LAGGING BEHIND.
NOT ONLY SOME RATHER LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT
POP WISE AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME
BANDED PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS MORESO LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THINKING THE COLDEST AIR MAY ARRIVE A BIT
LATER SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TIMING WISE WITH WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.
HOWEVER LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME OF THE BANDED PRECIPITATION MAY
START SOONER...AS IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT
BASIN UPPER LOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW WILL BE SLOWER TO
EJECT AND A TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD BE MORE
PERSISTENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
THEREFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER. THE MID WEEK FORECAST
ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT RATHER A STOUT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A WINTRY SPELL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME
TODAY...INCREASING SOME IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY INVADED
UNION COUNTY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ENCROACH FARTHER INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL PICK UP SPEED...PRESSING FARTHER SOUTH
AND WEST INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS COLDER AIR PLUNGES IN WITH THE
FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL TURN WINTRY...FIRST IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NM TODAY...SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN RANGE FROM A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO A MIXED BAG OF
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. A STRONG CANYON WIND WILL ALSO
LIKELY SPILL INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER NM INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GRADUALLY LESSENING INTO SUNDAY AS THE
LOW EXITS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN IS STILL
DEPICTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AS THE VAST LOW EXITS
FARTHER AWAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A TRAILING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT COULD KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONGOING...MOSTLY
OVER EASTERN NM. THIS PATTERN COULD COME WITH SOME BOUTS OF STRONGER
BREEZES...BUT FOR NOW NO CRITICAL WEATHER IS FORESEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER...THAT MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ526-534-537-539.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ535-536.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512>515-523-527>533.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ538-540.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511-516>518-521-522-524.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
446 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A MESSY WEATHER SCENARIO WILL BE SHAPING UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENTLY
BATCHES OF RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIERS OF THE STATE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
DOWNPOURS...SOME GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING. IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
BATCHES OF FOG SNEAKING TOWARD KROW AND KCVS...AND THIS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE LATE MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS
ALREADY PLUNGING INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WHERE SOME IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE OCCURING WITH PRECIPITATION TURNING
MORE WINTRY AS THE DAY GOES ON. INTO THE EVENING THE FRONT WILL
PUSH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SPREADING A WINTRY MIX AND
DETERIORATING CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH IT. LOOK FOR
PREVALENT AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN PEAKS AND RIDGES. AS THE FRONT SPILLS WESTWARD THROUGH
GAPS AND CANYONS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE TONIGHT...IT
WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO ACCELERATE TO 25 TO 45 KT.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY...THEN SURGE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON GUSTY
EAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. THE
RESULT WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SNOW FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE
EAST AND IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER CENTRAL AND WEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE FASTER PROGRESS THAN THE MODELS CAN
KEEP UP WITH. WIND SHIFT HAS ARRIVED AT KTCC WITH A CORRESPONDING
NEARLY 20 DEGREE DECREASE IN THE DRY BULB TEMPERATURE. TRIED TO
ADJUST FOR THE FASTER TIMING TEMPERATURE AND WIND WISE...LEANING
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE ALA THE ECMWF AND MET AT LEAST IN THE
PLAINS...BUT STILL THE FORECAST MAY LIKELY BE LAGGING BEHIND.
NOT ONLY SOME RATHER LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT
POP WISE AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME
BANDED PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS MORESO LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THINKING THE COLDEST AIR MAY ARRIVE A BIT
LATER SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TIMING WISE WITH WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.
HOWEVER LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME OF THE BANDED PRECIPITATION MAY
START SOONER...AS IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT
BASIN UPPER LOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW WILL BE SLOWER TO
EJECT AND A TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD BE MORE
PERSISTENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
THEREFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER. THE MID WEEK FORECAST
ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT RATHER A STOUT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A WINTRY SPELL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME
TODAY...INCREASING SOME IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY INVADED
UNION COUNTY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ENCROACH FARTHER INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL PICK UP SPEED...PRESSING FARTHER SOUTH
AND WEST INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS COLDER AIR PLUNGES IN WITH THE
FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL TURN WINTRY...FIRST IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NM TODAY...SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN RANGE FROM A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO A MIXED BAG OF
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. A STRONG CANYON WIND WILL ALSO
LIKELY SPILL INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER NM INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GRADUALLY LESSENING INTO SUNDAY AS THE
LOW EXITS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN IS STILL
DEPICTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AS THE VAST LOW EXITS
FARTHER AWAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A TRAILING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT COULD KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONGOING...MOSTLY
OVER EASTERN NM. THIS PATTERN COULD COME WITH SOME BOUTS OF STRONGER
BREEZES...BUT FOR NOW NO CRITICAL WEATHER IS FORESEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER...THAT MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ526-534-537-539.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ535-536.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512>515-523-527>533.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ538-540.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511-516>518-521-522-524.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
415 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY...THEN SURGE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON GUSTY
EAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. THE
RESULT WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SNOW FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE
EAST AND IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER CENTRAL AND WEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE FASTER PROGRESS THAN THE MODELS CAN
KEEP UP WITH. WIND SHIFT HAS ARRIVED AT KTCC WITH A CORRESPONDING
NEARLY 20 DEGREE DECREASE IN THE DRY BULB TEMPERATURE. TRIED TO
ADJUST FOR THE FASTER TIMING TEMPERATURE AND WIND WISE...LEANING
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE ALA THE ECMWF AND MET AT LEAST IN THE
PLAINS...BUT STILL THE FORECAST MAY LIKELY BE LAGGING BEHIND.
NOT ONLY SOME RATHER LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT
POP WISE AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME
BANDED PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS MORESO LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THINKING THE COLDEST AIR MAY ARRIVE A BIT
LATER SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TIMING WISE WITH WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.
HOWEVER LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME OF THE BANDED PRECIPITATION MAY
START SOONER...AS IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT
BASIN UPPER LOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW WILL BE SLOWER TO
EJECT AND A TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD BE MORE
PERSISTENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
THEREFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER. THE MID WEEK FORECAST
ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT RATHER A STOUT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A WINTRY SPELL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME
TODAY...INCREASING SOME IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY INVADED
UNION COUNTY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ENCROACH FARTHER INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL PICK UP SPEED...PRESSING FARTHER SOUTH
AND WEST INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS COLDER AIR PLUNGES IN WITH THE
FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL TURN WINTRY...FIRST IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NM TODAY...SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN RANGE FROM A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO A MIXED BAG OF
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. A STRONG CANYON WIND WILL ALSO
LIKELY SPILL INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER NM INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GRADUALLY LESSENING INTO SUNDAY AS THE
LOW EXITS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN IS STILL
DEPICTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AS THE VAST LOW EXITS
FARTHER AWAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A TRAILING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT COULD KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONGOING...MOSTLY
OVER EASTERN NM. THIS PATTERN COULD COME WITH SOME BOUTS OF STRONGER
BREEZES...BUT FOR NOW NO CRITICAL WEATHER IS FORESEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER...THAT MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME.
52
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WHERE GUSTS AROUND 40
KTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THICKEN
AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MOST
TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT CIGS COULD BE
AROUND 040 BEFORE DAYBREAK. IFR AND MAYBE EVEN LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT ROW AFTER 10Z. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FZRA/SLEET
FROM CAO TO TCC THURSDAY. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY IN THE NE. ELSEWHERE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MT OBSCURATIONS. 40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 53 28 44 26 / 10 10 20 20
DULCE........................... 49 27 42 26 / 50 40 60 50
CUBA............................ 50 30 38 24 / 50 30 60 50
GALLUP.......................... 52 23 49 20 / 10 10 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 51 25 49 20 / 10 10 20 30
GRANTS.......................... 56 27 45 21 / 10 20 30 40
QUEMADO......................... 56 30 53 29 / 10 20 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 60 38 60 33 / 30 30 30 20
CHAMA........................... 44 25 37 21 / 70 50 80 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 33 36 24 / 60 60 70 70
PECOS........................... 50 26 32 20 / 50 80 80 70
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 29 33 17 / 60 70 70 60
RED RIVER....................... 45 22 26 15 / 60 90 70 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 24 27 15 / 50 80 70 60
TAOS............................ 48 27 35 21 / 40 60 60 50
MORA............................ 49 20 28 14 / 40 90 70 70
ESPANOLA........................ 54 34 41 28 / 40 50 50 50
SANTA FE........................ 51 31 35 25 / 40 60 60 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 32 37 25 / 30 50 60 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 36 38 26 / 30 30 60 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 41 41 27 / 30 20 60 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 39 42 28 / 30 20 60 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 39 42 27 / 30 20 50 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 42 42 29 / 30 20 60 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 36 39 26 / 30 20 60 50
SOCORRO......................... 65 43 48 32 / 30 20 70 50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 28 33 22 / 30 50 70 60
TIJERAS......................... 54 31 34 23 / 30 50 70 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 27 30 19 / 30 60 80 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 24 27 17 / 30 80 70 70
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 32 34 23 / 40 50 80 60
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 39 40 28 / 50 50 80 60
RUIDOSO......................... 55 34 38 25 / 60 60 80 80
CAPULIN......................... 37 16 23 14 / 60 90 70 70
RATON........................... 43 19 25 15 / 50 90 60 60
SPRINGER........................ 52 21 26 16 / 40 90 60 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 49 22 25 14 / 40 90 60 60
CLAYTON......................... 34 15 23 14 / 70 90 60 60
ROY............................. 45 21 25 16 / 50 80 60 50
CONCHAS......................... 52 24 28 18 / 50 80 60 50
SANTA ROSA...................... 60 25 27 19 / 50 80 60 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 51 25 27 19 / 70 90 70 60
CLOVIS.......................... 61 25 29 20 / 60 90 80 60
PORTALES........................ 65 26 30 22 / 60 90 80 60
FORT SUMNER..................... 63 27 30 21 / 50 80 70 50
ROSWELL......................... 68 40 40 26 / 30 60 70 60
PICACHO......................... 68 34 36 24 / 20 50 70 60
ELK............................. 65 36 38 26 / 40 50 70 70
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ526-534-537-539.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ535-536.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512>515-523-527>533.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ538-540.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511-516>518-521-522-524.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
418 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MOST OF FRIDAY WITH MILD WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR FOR LATE NOVEMBER SATURDAY.
THIS DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AND MILD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 500 MB.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
ADVECTING OVERHEAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND
500 MB AND UP. THERE WERE ALSO SCATTERED AREAS OF LOWER
STRATOCUMULUS THAT WERE MIXING OUT WITH THE GROWING BOUNDARY
LAYER MAINLY IN NORTHEAST PA AND EAST CENTRAL NY FROM THE WEAK
INSOLATION THAT WE SEE IN LATE NOVEMBER. SO FORECAST BEGINS PARTLY
CLOUDY ALL AREAS. THE NAM IS AGRESSIVE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CREEPING UP NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NY
BETWEEN 21Z AND 09Z AS SEEN IN THE 925 MB RH FIELDS WHICH BECOME
SATURATED. THE HRRR HAS MUCH LESS MOISTURE AT THIS LEVEL. THE
LATEST RAP ALSO IS MUCH LESS ON THE RH AT THE VERY LOW-LEVELS.
HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF RUNS ALSO DON`T HAVE AS MUCH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. SO WE WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS HERE AND KEEP MAINLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WON`T BE ARRIVING BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY SO NO PRECIP IN
FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FOR FRIDAY, ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL REACH LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE BY 18Z FRIDAY AND TO
ABOUT UTICA TO PENN YAN/HORNELL AREA IN CENTRAL NY BY 00Z. THE 12Z
EUROPEAN MODEL, 15Z SREF AND 12Z NAM ARE SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS
WHICH HAS THE FRONT A BIT FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH AT 00Z SATURDAY.
THE 12Z CMC REMAINS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS FRONT HOLDING IT BACK TO
ABOUT SARANAC LAKE TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NY BY 00Z SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT AND AS A RESULT HAVE
BACKED OFF SHOWERS THAT ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT SOME. THE
MAIN DYNAMICAL FEATURE THAT WAS SUPPORTING LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY BEHIND THIS FRONT WAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WHICH EXTENDS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC NORTHEAST TO
THE MARITIMES AT 00Z SATURDAY. THIS JET WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. HENCE SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHEAST PA FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODEL QPFS SHOW THIS DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SO HAVE POPS
DROPPING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD AFFECT NORTHEAST PA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NY SATURDAY. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING
ALL DAY SATURDAY FOR THE COMBINATION OF THE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS PER THE 12Z CMC AND EUROPEAN
MODELS. THE GFS AND NAM ARE DRY ALL DAY SATURDAY IN OUR AREA.
USED SUPERBLEND OF MODELS TO COME UP WITH A CONSENSUS FORECAST.
THEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SKIES WILL
TURN FAIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALL MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEXT WINTER
STORM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS. AS ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP IN THE
LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND LEADS TO MILD CONDITIONS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE BEGINS TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NEXT WEEK BUT IDEA IS THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR AND CHILLY
WEATHER FOR NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE ONLY FLYING CONCERN TODAY BEING GUSTY
WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT KITH, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KSYR AND KBGM.
TONIGHT MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS NOW OVER WESTERN VA MAY
TRY TO SNEAK NORTHWARD INTO KAVP AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS KBGM.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON THIS AS WE HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
COMPUTER MODELS WE USE TO FORECAST. THE BOTTOMLINE THOUGH IS THE
TWO TERMINALS MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR MVFR
AFTER 06Z.
ON FRIDAY MAINLY VFR EARLY, ASIDE FROM ANY LINGERING MVFR AT KAVP
AND KBGM. WHILE THIS TAF SET IS DRY, SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE INCLUDED
IN THE NEXT FEW TAFS UPDATES WITH RAIN LIKELY 21Z FRIDAY THROUGH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CLOUD DECK...BECOMING VFR.
SUN/MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
153 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF THANKSGIVING DAY DRY AND
MILD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT SPREADS RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
INTO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 500 MB.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
ADVECTING OVERHEAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND
500 MB AND UP. THERE WERE ALSO SCATTERED AREAS OF LOWER
STRATOCUMULUS THAT WERE MIXING OUT WITH THE GROWING BOUNDARY
LAYER MAINLY IN NORTHEAST PA AND EAST CENTRAL NY FROM THE WEAK
INSOLATION THAT WE SEE IN LATE NOVEMBER. SO FORECAST BEGINS PARTLY
CLOUDY ALL AREAS. THE NAM IS AGRESSIVE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CREEPING UP NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NY
BETWEEN 21Z AND 09Z AS SEEN IN THE 925 MB RH FIELDS WHICH BECOME
SATURATED. THE HRRR HAS MUCH LESS MOISTURE AT THIS LEVEL. THE
LATEST RAP ALSO IS MUCH LESS ON THE RH AT THE VERY LOW-LEVELS.
HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF RUNS ALSO DON`T HAVE AS MUCH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. SO WE WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS HERE AND KEEP MAINLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WON`T BE ARRIVING BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY SO NO PRECIP IN
FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER MILD DAY IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS +10C 925MB ISOTHERM
PUSHES TO THE NY/PA BORDER. TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 60 DOWN THE
LAKE PLAIN.
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS WARRANTS CATEGORICAL POPS, THOUGH QPF WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE.
DRY AIR RACES OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ON SATURDAY, CUTTING OFF
THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
COOL AND QUIET ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER ONTARIO AND NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM 40. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY... THEN THE NEXT SOUTHERN
BRANCH LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO OUR AREA. SNOW CHANCES APPEAR TO BE QUITE LOW THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS WINTER GETS OFF TO A SLOW START ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE ONLY FLYING CONCERN TODAY BEING GUSTY
WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT KITH, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KSYR AND KBGM.
TONIGHT MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS NOW OVER WESTERN VA MAY
TRY TO SNEAK NORTHWARD INTO KAVP AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS KBGM.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON THIS AS WE HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
COMPUTER MODELS WE USE TO FORECAST. THE BOTTOMLINE THOUGH IS THE
TWO TERMINALS MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR MVFR
AFTER 06Z.
ON FRIDAY MAINLY VFR EARLY, ASIDE FROM ANY LINGERING MVFR AT KAVP
AND KBGM. WHILE THIS TAF SET IS DRY, SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE INCLUDED
IN THE NEXT FEW TAFS UPDATES WITH RAIN LIKELY 21Z FRIDAY THROUGH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CLOUD DECK...BECOMING VFR.
SUN/MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/DJP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1250 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS CONTINUES WITH MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE
THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE LOOKOUT AND THIS RAIN IS SLOWLY WORKING
IT WAY TO THE COAST NORTH OF US. THE HRRR AND OTHER GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COASTAL AREAS MAYBE SEEING AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAINLY NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A REALLY INTERESTING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPS THANKSGIVING DAY: AN UPPER RIDGE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE
SE STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS DISTURBANCE HELPS CUT OFF A BROAD
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHICH THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SINK INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER US SHOULD
HELP DISSIPATE ANY CIRRUS ADVECTING EASTWARD FROM STORMINESS IN
THE PLAINS STATES AND WILL MAINTAIN A VERY DRY AIRMASS THROUGHOUT
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
BELOW 800 MB (ABOUT 7000 FEET AGL) ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL BRING IN MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS APPEAR LESS
BULLISH ON THE DEPTH AND TIME WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT FOR CLOUD COVER. WATCHING HOW DIFFICULT A TIME THE
ATLANTIC STRATOCUMULUS HAS HAD PUSHING WESTWARD TODAY GIVES ME
PAUSE TO FORECAST ANYTHING WORSE THAN "PARTLY CLOUDY" THURSDAY.
THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ACTUALLY DRY OUT SLIGHTLY FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS ARE PREFERRED OVER THE 12Z NAM
GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE BETTER HANDLING OF THE DOMINANCE OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH LATER THIS WEEK. THE NAM IS LIKELY WRONG
WITH ITS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
CAROLINAS...THEN PINWHEELING IT WESTWARD AROUND THE TOPSIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW. IN THE NAM THIS FEATURE DISTORTS OUR LOW-LEVEL WIND
PATTERN AND CREATES COLD ADVECTION THAT DOESN`T APPEAR IN THE
OTHER TWO MODELS. FORECAST HIGHS/LOWS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED VERY NEAR
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO GIVE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FITS NEXT WEEK. PERIOD BEGINS WITH FLATTENING
5H RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION WARM AND DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MID
LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO TRANSITION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN SLOWLY STARTS MOVING EAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONT STALLED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON SUN WILL WORK ITS
WAY EAST MON INTO TUE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE LOCAL AREA AND PRECIP POTENTIAL MON INTO TUE LOOKS
LIMITED. THE FRONT ALSO DRIFTS EAST MON/TUE ENDING UP STALLED IN THE
KY/TN VALLEYS AS SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EAST COAST HOLDS STRONG.
EVENTUALLY 5H LOW EMERGING FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAINS IN QUESTION. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP POP CAPPED AT LOW CHC THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO FOG LATE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS
AND NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT. MODELS REMAIN IN A BIT OF A
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS HAVE KEPT THE
POTENTIAL IN GOING FORECAST WITH MAINLY VFR ALONG THE COAST AND
TEMPO MVFR...AND PREVAILING MVFR FOG INLAND...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF IFR. CONFIDENCE FOR ANY IFR REMAINS LOW ATTM. AFTER
DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH LINGERING
SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KT
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 18 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...
SUBSIDING BY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE NORTHEAST WINDS
TO BLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 KT. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET WITH A FEW 7 FOOTERS FARTHER OFF THE COAST.
SEAS JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WILL BE SLIGHT LESS AS
THESE WATERS ARE PROTECTED FROM THE LONGER FETCH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN LATER THIS WEEK...
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NE WINDS AT A HEFTY 15-20 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WITH SUCH A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AFFECTED BY THESE WINDS LOOK FOR SEAS TO INCREASE TO 7-8 FEET AT
10-20 MILE DISTANCES FROM SHORE NEAR CAPE FEAR AND EAST OF WINYAH
BAY. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8-10 SECONDS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN ROUGHER OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM WHERE
CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST. GRADIENT FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST FLOW AT OR ABOVE 15 KT WILL KEEP SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS EXPOSED TO
NORTHEAST FLOW. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 FT NEAR SHORE TO AS HIGH AS 7
FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...TIDES MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS AT
THE BEACHES WITH THURSDAY`S 7 AM HIGH TIDE. ONLY A 0.5 TO 0.7 FOOT
ANOMALY WILL BE ENOUGH TO REACH THE 6.0 FT MLLW FLOOD LEVEL AT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND 7.5 FT MLLW AT MYRTLE BEACH. THIS APPEARS
POSSIBLE GIVEN SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RJD/SGL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
CURRENTLY...A LARGE COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND OVER MONTANA. AT UPPER LEVELS A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA TO NEAR THE
MT/ND/SASK/MAN BORDER AREA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE
WESTERLIES WAS IN THE FORM OF A NEARLY CUTOFF LOW OVER NEVADA...WITH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUED TO SHOW
OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
SOME CLEARING SKIES OVER NORTHERN MONTANA. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
UPDATE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN HIGH RES MODELS REGARDING CLOUD COVER BUT
THE RAP 13 H925 RH FIELD MAY HAVE THE BEST SOLUTION WITH A VERY
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE STATE
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LOOK TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
MADE SOME TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THE WEST...AS APPARENT CLEARING OR
AT LEAST TEMPORARY CLEARING IN THE FAR WEST NEAR BEACH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND ZERO. ADJUSTED MINIMUM TEMPS AND
HOURLY TEMPS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS CLEARING
IN EASTERN MONTANA APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER. HOWEVER A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL MAKE LITTLE
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE RAP13 925RH HAS THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT LOW CLOUDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY WITH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINING CLOUDY THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. FOLLOWED THE
HIGH RESOLUTION NMM EAST WHICH IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAS THIS
EVENINGS LIGHT SNOW CAPTURED IN THE SOUTH. HAVE EXTENDED THE SNOW
IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND ENTIRE FAR SOUTH THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
IN THE WEST EXPECTING SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
THIS COVERED WELL AND THE TREND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK GIVEN ABOVE
SCENARIO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
LATEST REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING
TO STRADDLE THE FAR SOUTHERN BORDER...WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
COVERING MOST REPORTING STATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. SNOW AMOUNTS
OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IN THE NORTH HAVE VARIED FROM A TRACE
AT WILLISTON AND MINOT...TO BETWEEN 0.01 TO 0.02 AT WATFORD CITY
AND TIOGA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM SASKATCHEWAN. THE RAP13 SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAP13
MAINTAINS A SWATH OF HIGH 925MB-850MB RH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL AWAIT THE 00Z
SUITE OF DATA EVALUATE BEYOND TONIGHT. FOR THIS UPDATE WILL SLOW
DOWN THE DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND MAINTAIN
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS AND INCOMING UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING.
CURRENTLY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TWO AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE FIRST
VERY LIGHT IF ANYTHING ACROSS THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...AND THE SECOND A BAND OF LIGHT TO
POSSIBLY EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV WHICH EJECTED
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW LAST NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY WITH THE MORE ENHANCED RADAR
RETURNS. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS AREA IN THE HWO FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SPREAD WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. THIS WILL ACT TO END THE SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SKY
COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO MID TEENS...AND A COLD DAY FOR
THANKSGIVING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WIDE ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THIS WEEKEND`S STORM.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF
THE 12 UTC RUNS WOULD PLACE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DO WRAP IN A
SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY MONDAY. UTILIZING A BLEND OF
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS YIELDS AROUND AN INCH OR TWO TOTAL OF SNOW
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 FOR FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
LIKELY MELT MOST OR ALL SNOW THAT ACCUMULATES OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE MAIN LOW SHIFTS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH.
OTHERWISE...THE LONG TERM APPEARS QUIET...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS AND TEENS/TWENTIES FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
VARIOUS MODELS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE. WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IN MONTANA HAD BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY
DESPITE VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTING CLEARING. THUS TAFS
INDICATE MVFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AERODROMES
OF KISN/KDIK THURSDAY MORNING 12Z TO 15Z...WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER KMOT/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1258 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOS IN SRN INDIANA. THE
LATEST GFS AND HRRR ARE SHOWING THAT THESE MIGHT SNEAK INTO OUR
INDIANA COUNTIES. DONT THINK THEY WILL BE ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT...SO JUST ADDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE EXTREME
WESTERN COUNTIES.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS STILL
LOOK GOOD...SO NO CHANGES THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT. DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST
TO END FRIDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
PRESENCE OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND PVA. SHOWERS WILL REACH MOST
LOCATIONS INCLUDING CINCINNATI...DAYTON AND COLUMBUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS MAY NOT REACH FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH CHANCE
POPS FARTHER NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT LACKS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL CAUSE STREAMS TO RISE BUT FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO STAY NEAR 60 FRIDAY WHEN WARM AIR WILL
LINGER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP READINGS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LOW 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE FLATTENS...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ENDS UP DRY ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF KEPT A
MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN OPPOSITION TO ITS
00Z RUN AND THE 12Z GEM/GFS FORECAST SCENARIOS. A CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS SOME DEGREE OF WHITTLING AWAY THE POPS FROM THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION IS ALSO PREFERRED WITH THE EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL AGAIN INCREASE BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. BASED ON GFSE
SPREADS AND THE OVERALL SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING/PLACEMENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE WEATHER FEATURES BEYOND THE
WEEKEND IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY...THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH THE WARM STARTING POINT AT THE END OF THIS
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL STILL END UP VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL (PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW). A MORE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY
NEAR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD (MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TAFS WILL REMAIN WARM SECTORED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER
WITH FRONT OUT OVER THE MS VALLEY. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OF 6KFT CLOUDS AROUND KILN WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING JUST CI OVER THE TAFS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD LOSE THEIR GUSTS AROUND SUNSET...REMAINING SLY
AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT. GUSTS AROUND 20KTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AFTER 14Z.
HELD PCPN OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...JUST ADDING A
VCSH AT KCVG NEAR THE END OF THE 30 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
946 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOS IN SRN INDIANA. THE
LATEST GFS AND HRRR ARE SHOWING THAT THESE MIGHT SNEAK INTO OUR
INDIANA COUNTIES. DONT THINK THEY WILL BE ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT...SO JUST ADDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE EXTREME
WESTERN COUNTIES.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS STILL
LOOK GOOD...SO NO CHANGES THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT. DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST
TO END FRIDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
PRESENCE OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND PVA. SHOWERS WILL REACH MOST
LOCATIONS INCLUDING CINCINNATI...DAYTON AND COLUMBUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS MAY NOT REACH FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH CHANCE
POPS FARTHER NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT LACKS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL CAUSE STREAMS TO RISE BUT FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO STAY NEAR 60 FRIDAY WHEN WARM AIR WILL
LINGER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP READINGS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LOW 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE FLATTENS...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ENDS UP DRY ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF KEPT A
MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN OPPOSITION TO ITS
00Z RUN AND THE 12Z GEM/GFS FORECAST SCENARIOS. A CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS SOME DEGREE OF WHITTLING AWAY THE POPS FROM THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION IS ALSO PREFERRED WITH THE EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL AGAIN INCREASE BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. BASED ON GFSE
SPREADS AND THE OVERALL SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING/PLACEMENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE WEATHER FEATURES BEYOND THE
WEEKEND IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY...THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH THE WARM STARTING POINT AT THE END OF THIS
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL STILL END UP VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL (PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW). A MORE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY
NEAR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD (MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. OHIO
WILL BE BETWEEN SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000
FEET WILL RESULT IN CIGS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS
SHOW THIS MOISTURE THIN OUT TOWARD EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CIGS TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 13 KTS WILL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURG THE DAY
AND THEN CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1127 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY DEALING WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. TO START...HAVE AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/VERY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
AREA. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO LAST ANY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS IN
ANY ONE LOCATION...SO OPTING TO NOT ISSUE HEADLINE NORTH OF EXISTING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MORNING WILL BE ON SCATTERED PRECIP AREA LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE BULK OF APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF A TYNDALL-SIOUX FALLS-SLAYTON MN
LINE. WARM LAYER MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 850-750MB ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IS THE PROBLEMATIC COMPONENT OF THE FORECAST. NAM/RAP HOLD ON TO
WARM LAYER LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS COOLS THE
LAYER MORE QUICKLY. A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WHICH SOLUTION WILL PAN
OUT...ESPECIALLY SINCE SURFACE COOLING HAS BEEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BLENDED APPROACH GIVES RATE OF
COOLING ALOFT SIMILAR TO RECENT RAP RUNS AND SEE NO STRONG REASON TO
DIVERGE FROM THAT AT THIS POINT. END RESULT IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN OTHER WORDS...STILL LOOKING FOR THE
HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10-0.15 INCH IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...
AND LIGHT ICING OUTSIDE THE EARLY MORNING FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT AS
FAR NORTH AS PONCA-LE MARS-SPIRIT LAKE. THIS SHOULD BE TOPPED BY AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH
AND BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. GOING LOCATION OF ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
THREAT STILL GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MID AND
UPPER 20S...WITH LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A LITTLE ON SATURDAY IN A TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MUDDLED
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ON SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE
SPLIT WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM DUMBELLING A VORT MAX AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THUS BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND
GEM ROTATE THE VORT MAX INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...KEEPING LOW END POPS IN OUR WEST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT. LOWS LOOKING TO BE
IN THE TEENS.
WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS SOMEWHAT CONVERGE ON BRINGING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...BRINGING A
BETTER CONSENSUS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOOKS TO FINALLY SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OUR AREA DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OF NORMAL WITH
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30 AND LOWS UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT
OF NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS ORGANIZED. AFTER ABOUT 23Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ071.
MN...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ003-
013-014-020>022-031-032.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-
014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
557 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY DEALING WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. TO START...HAVE AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/VERY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
AREA. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO LAST ANY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS IN
ANY ONE LOCATION...SO OPTING TO NOT ISSUE HEADLINE NORTH OF EXISTING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MORNING WILL BE ON SCATTERED PRECIP AREA LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE BULK OF APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF A TYNDALL-SIOUX FALLS-SLAYTON MN
LINE. WARM LAYER MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 850-750MB ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IS THE PROBLEMATIC COMPONENT OF THE FORECAST. NAM/RAP HOLD ON TO
WARM LAYER LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS COOLS THE
LAYER MORE QUICKLY. A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WHICH SOLUTION WILL PAN
OUT...ESPECIALLY SINCE SURFACE COOLING HAS BEEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BLENDED APPROACH GIVES RATE OF
COOLING ALOFT SIMILAR TO RECENT RAP RUNS AND SEE NO STRONG REASON TO
DIVERGE FROM THAT AT THIS POINT. END RESULT IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN OTHER WORDS...STILL LOOKING FOR THE
HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10-0.15 INCH IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...
AND LIGHT ICING OUTSIDE THE EARLY MORNING FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT AS
FAR NORTH AS PONCA-LE MARS-SPIRIT LAKE. THIS SHOULD BE TOPPED BY AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH
AND BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. GOING LOCATION OF ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
THREAT STILL GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MID AND
UPPER 20S...WITH LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A LITTLE ON SATURDAY IN A TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MUDDLED
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ON SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE
SPLIT WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM DUMBELLING A VORT MAX AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THUS BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND
GEM ROTATE THE VORT MAX INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...KEEPING LOW END POPS IN OUR WEST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT. LOWS LOOKING TO BE
IN THE TEENS.
WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS SOMEWHAT CONVERGE ON BRINGING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...BRINGING A
BETTER CONSENSUS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOOKS TO FINALLY SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OUR AREA DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OF NORMAL WITH
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30 AND LOWS UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
WINTRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF KFSD. MOST IMPACTED TAF LOCATION WILL BE
KSUX...BEGINNING WITH MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
BE FOUND THROUGHOUT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST IOWA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KVMR-KSHL-KMJQ. ACCUMULATING ICE AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FARTHER NORTHWEST...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE REPLACED
WITH AREAS OF -SN...WITH MVFR- VFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE FOR KFSD/KHON THROUGH 18Z...FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVEMENT TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ071.
MN...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ003-
013-014-020>022-031-032.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-
014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY DEALING WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. TO START...HAVE AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/VERY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
AREA. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO LAST ANY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS IN
ANY ONE LOCATION...SO OPTING TO NOT ISSUE HEADLINE NORTH OF EXISTING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MORNING WILL BE ON SCATTERED PRECIP AREA LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE BULK OF APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF A TYNDALL-SIOUX FALLS-SLAYTON MN
LINE. WARM LAYER MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 850-750MB ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IS THE PROBLEMATIC COMPONENT OF THE FORECAST. NAM/RAP HOLD ON TO
WARM LAYER LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS COOLS THE
LAYER MORE QUICKLY. A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WHICH SOLUTION WILL PAN
OUT...ESPECIALLY SINCE SURFACE COOLING HAS BEEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BLENDED APPROACH GIVES RATE OF
COOLING ALOFT SIMILAR TO RECENT RAP RUNS AND SEE NO STRONG REASON TO
DIVERGE FROM THAT AT THIS POINT. END RESULT IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN OTHER WORDS...STILL LOOKING FOR THE
HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10-0.15 INCH IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...
AND LIGHT ICING OUTSIDE THE EARLY MORNING FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT AS
FAR NORTH AS PONCA-LE MARS-SPIRIT LAKE. THIS SHOULD BE TOPPED BY AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH
AND BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. GOING LOCATION OF ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
THREAT STILL GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MID AND
UPPER 20S...WITH LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A LITTLE ON SATURDAY IN A TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MUDDLED
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ON SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE
SPLIT WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM DUMBELLING A VORT MAX AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THUS BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND
GEM ROTATE THE VORT MAX INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...KEEPING LOW END POPS IN OUR WEST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT. LOWS LOOKING TO BE
IN THE TEENS.
WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS SOMEWHAT CONVERGE ON BRINGING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...BRINGING A
BETTER CONSENSUS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOOKS TO FINALLY SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OUR AREA DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OF NORMAL WITH
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30 AND LOWS UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING. MVFR AND
IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN NORTHWEST IOWA
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF RAIN...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY THURSDAY ELSEWHERE...HOWEVER THE WINTRY MIX WILL BECOME MORE
STEADY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SWITCHING TO ENTIRELY
SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN MIXED PRECIPITATION...WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW
2 MILES ONCE THE SWITCH TO SNOWFALL OCCURS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ071.
MN...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ003-
013-014-020>022-031-032.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-
014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
520 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN TO THE ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH A
VERY MILD AND WET WEEK AHEAD FOR THE MID STATE. RADAR IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES PROGRESSING EASTWARD
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. LATEST 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE AND 19Z HRRR INDICATE LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN SPREAD FURTHER EAST ON
SATURDAY. RAIN ANTICIPATED TO BECOME EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD AND OF
HEAVIER INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS
INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES UP THE FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN
THE 50S/60S...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MODELS INDICATE RAIN WILL SLACKEN OFF SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED 80 KT H5 SPEED MAX
EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW K-INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 30S AND LI VALUES OF -1 ON MONDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL IS LOW. TOTAL QPF THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY IS A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH MOST AREAS
LOOKING TO SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
REMAIN A BIT HIGHER IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DRY OUR AREA OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH GFS INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN BUT ECMWF KEEPING US DRY. WILL SHOW LOW POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD IN AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. COOLER TEMPS
LOOK LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. KCKV SHOULD SEE THE
WORST OF THINGS AS LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND EXPEDITE THE CIG LOWERING. EITHER
WAY...IFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED FOR KCKV BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. LOWERED CIGS AND VIS WILL TAKE CONSIDERABLY LONGER FOR
KBNA/KCSV...WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR KBNA BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND IT COULD BE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY BEFORE
KCSV SEES ANY REDUCED CATEGORIES.
WINDS WILL BE 8-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND VEER SLIGHTLY
TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........27/UNGER
LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
919 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO MAX POPS AT 100 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
FROM BEXAR AND MEDINA COUNTIES...UP THROUGH LLANO COUNTY. THIS
AREA ON RADAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH THE NORTHWARD TREND
OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER. KEPT THE ISOLATED THUNDER IN FOR THE
NEXT 3 HOURS...BUT REMOVED AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE SEEN ONLY 1 OR
2 STRIKES OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS AND WITH THE SURFACE GETTING
COLDER AND NO EVIDENCE OF STRONG LIFT COMING IN FROM THE
WEST...FEEL THAT THE RISK OF THUNDER IS DROPPING QUICKLY. HAVE
ALSO REDUCED POP OUT WEST TO 50 PERCENT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
AND LACK OF ENHANCEMENT ON IR SATELLITE. ALL THE MESO MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED RAIN AREAS OVERNIGHT WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZATION. FEEL THAT OUR CURRENT QPF LOOKS
GOOD WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OVERNIGHT IN SOME SPOTS.
FRONT IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF OUR CWA WITH IT BEING OVER SOUTHERN
ATASCOSA COUNTY AND OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR COASTAL
COUNTIES. AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL GET
NEAR STEADY TEMPS OVERNIGHT. AREAS IN THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY
HAVE SEEN SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ALREADY BUT ALL MODELS KEEP THE
AREA ABOVE FREEZING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ICE AT THIS TIME...JUST A
COLD RAIN. WITH ALL THE METARS SHOWING NEAR SATURATION AND RAIN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THERE IS NOT MUCH ROOM FOR WET BULBING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/
AVIATION...
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN FLYING CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL CONTROL CATEGORY. AUS WILL BE IFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS AND DRT ARE MVFR...BUT DROP
TO IFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY OFF
AND ON RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD NOT GO BELOW MVFR. THE COLD
FRONT IS THROUGH AUS AND DRT AND IS JUST REACHING SAT. SHOULD BE
THROUGH SAT AND SSF WITHING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BEHIND THE FRONT
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 1O TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATE MORNING SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF 3 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
LEXINGTON TO AUSTIN TO DEL RIO. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH AND
EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE AT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND THEN CLEAR THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COMING IN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS FOR OUR AREA
FOR TONIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS SHOWING
SOME 2 INCH IN 6 HOUR RAIN TOTALS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEHIND
THE FRONT. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF AMOUNTS THIS HIGH FOR THIS
AREA...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED
THE PW VALUES TOO HIGH WITH 2 INCH VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS ONLY SHOWS 1.8
INCHES...WHICH IS STILL ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
DO THINK RAIN WILL FALL FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EVEN IF 2 INCHES
FALL OVER 6 HOURS...RAIN RATES SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH PER
HOUR AS THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THE COLD SECTOR
AND THE BEST WARM-RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE SHUT DOWN.
CONTINUE TO THINK THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF MAY ACTUALLY FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES....BETWEEN DEL RIO AND SAN ANTONIO.
THE VARIOUS WRF MODELS AND NOW THE HRRR CONTINUE TO PROG A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP NEAR DEL RIO...THEN TRACK TO THE ESE IN
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE WOULD LIKELY HELP LOCALLY ENHANCE
THE LIFT TO SUPPORT BETTER PRECIPITATION RATES. THE LOW WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST IN THE AREA AS
SOME OF THE AIR BECOMES WRAPPED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW ALSO
ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP RATES. IN ADDITION TO THE
EXPECTED SURFACE TROUGH...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE
POINTING TO THIS REGION AS WELL FOR THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING MORE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES VERSUS THE EASTERN AND
THIS IS LIKELY THE REASON. OUR STORM TOTAL PRECIP GRAPHIC FOR THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AN AXIS
FROM ZAVALA COUNTY UP INTO MEDINA/UVALDE AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AM EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR THIS AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS REACHING 4+.
WHILE THERE ARE ABNORMALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AND A FRONT...THERE ARE SEVERAL INGREDIENTS LACKING FOR
A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR OUR AREA. THE FIRST IS DEEP
FORCING FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER UTAH AND A RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE BEST SHEAR AXIS /LIFT/ REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
MEANS OUR MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. SECOND...OUR REGION IS ALSO UNDERNEATH THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WHICH ALSO ISNT FAVORABLE FOR
DEEP CONVECTION. THIRD...WE DO HAVE A COLD FRONT IN PLACE BUT
THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO STALL AND THUS WILL NOT SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. LASTLY...THE 850 FRONT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...DETACHED FROM THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
WILL NOT ENHANCE FRONTAL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TO
SUMMARIZE...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN
LOCALIZED PLACES...BUT WE ARE LACKING MECHANISMS FOR INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES OUT OF THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S/40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL NOT WARM MUCH FROM THOSE VALUES. OVERRUNNING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS TOMORROW AS THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT FROM TODAY. THE MID-LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWERING RAIN AMOUNTS EVEN
FURTHER. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF AREA...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHEAR AXIS. LOWS
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...BUT NOT BY
MUCH AS NORTH WINDS REMAIN AT THE SURFACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALSO PERSIST AND EXPECT LOW POPS TO CONTINUE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS. UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY MONDAY
WHICH SHOULD SHIFT THE RAIN CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AND THESE POPS WILL ONLY BE 20 PERCENT.
THE STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST
AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTH FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES TO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN OPEN TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SET UP OVER THE AREA
AND WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE CURRENT EVENT AND MORE TYPICAL FOR
THE WINTER SEASON. THE FORECAST WILL DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 44 46 43 49 45 / 90 80 70 60 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 43 47 44 49 44 / 90 80 70 60 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 45 47 44 51 45 / 90 80 70 60 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 41 44 40 47 42 / 100 80 70 70 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 41 47 44 57 45 / 80 60 50 30 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 40 44 41 48 42 / 90 80 70 70 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 43 48 44 53 46 / 100 80 70 50 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 44 46 44 50 45 / 90 80 70 60 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 50 44 51 48 / 80 70 60 60 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 47 48 45 51 47 / 100 80 70 60 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 49 50 46 53 48 / 100 80 70 50 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
559 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.AVIATION...
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN FLYING CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL CONTROL CATEGORY. AUS WILL BE IFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS AND DRT ARE MVFR...BUT DROP
TO IFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY OFF
AND ON RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD NOT GO BELOW MVFR. THE COLD
FRONT IS THROUGH AUS AND DRT AND IS JUST REACHING SAT. SHOULD BE
THROUGH SAT AND SSF WITHING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BEHIND THE FRONT
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 1O TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATE MORNING SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF 3 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
LEXINGTON TO AUSTIN TO DEL RIO. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH AND
EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE AT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND THEN CLEAR THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COMING IN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS FOR OUR AREA
FOR TONIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS SHOWING
SOME 2 INCH IN 6 HOUR RAIN TOTALS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEHIND
THE FRONT. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF AMOUNTS THIS HIGH FOR THIS
AREA...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED
THE PW VALUES TOO HIGH WITH 2 INCH VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS ONLY SHOWS 1.8
INCHES...WHICH IS STILL ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
DO THINK RAIN WILL FALL FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EVEN IF 2 INCHES
FALL OVER 6 HOURS...RAIN RATES SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH PER
HOUR AS THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THE COLD SECTOR
AND THE BEST WARM-RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE SHUT DOWN.
CONTINUE TO THINK THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF MAY ACTUALLY FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES....BETWEEN DEL RIO AND SAN ANTONIO.
THE VARIOUS WRF MODELS AND NOW THE HRRR CONTINUE TO PROG A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP NEAR DEL RIO...THEN TRACK TO THE ESE IN
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE WOULD LIKELY HELP LOCALLY ENHANCE
THE LIFT TO SUPPORT BETTER PRECIPITATION RATES. THE LOW WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST IN THE AREA AS
SOME OF THE AIR BECOMES WRAPPED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW ALSO
ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP RATES. IN ADDITION TO THE
EXPECTED SURFACE TROUGH...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE
POINTING TO THIS REGION AS WELL FOR THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING MORE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES VERSUS THE EASTERN AND
THIS IS LIKELY THE REASON. OUR STORM TOTAL PRECIP GRAPHIC FOR THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AN AXIS
FROM ZAVALA COUNTY UP INTO MEDINA/UVALDE AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AM EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR THIS AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS REACHING 4+.
WHILE THERE ARE ABNORMALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AND A FRONT...THERE ARE SEVERAL INGREDIENTS LACKING FOR
A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR OUR AREA. THE FIRST IS DEEP
FORCING FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER UTAH AND A RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE BEST SHEAR AXIS /LIFT/ REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
MEANS OUR MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. SECOND...OUR REGION IS ALSO UNDERNEATH THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WHICH ALSO ISNT FAVORABLE FOR
DEEP CONVECTION. THIRD...WE DO HAVE A COLD FRONT IN PLACE BUT
THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO STALL AND THUS WILL NOT SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. LASTLY...THE 850 FRONT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...DETACHED FROM THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
WILL NOT ENHANCE FRONTAL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TO
SUMMARIZE...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN
LOCALIZED PLACES...BUT WE ARE LACKING MECHANISMS FOR INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES OUT OF THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S/40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL NOT WARM MUCH FROM THOSE VALUES. OVERRUNNING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS TOMORROW AS THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT FROM TODAY. THE MID-LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWERING RAIN AMOUNTS EVEN
FURTHER. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF AREA...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHEAR AXIS. LOWS
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...BUT NOT BY
MUCH AS NORTH WINDS REMAIN AT THE SURFACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALSO PERSIST AND EXPECT LOW POPS TO CONTINUE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS. UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY MONDAY
WHICH SHOULD SHIFT THE RAIN CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AND THESE POPS WILL ONLY BE 20 PERCENT.
THE STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST
AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTH FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES TO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN OPEN TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SET UP OVER THE AREA
AND WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE CURRENT EVENT AND MORE TYPICAL FOR
THE WINTER SEASON. THE FORECAST WILL DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 44 46 43 49 45 / 90 80 70 60 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 43 47 44 49 44 / 80 80 70 60 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 45 47 44 51 45 / 80 80 70 60 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 41 44 40 47 42 / 90 80 70 70 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 41 47 44 57 45 / 80 60 50 30 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 40 44 41 48 42 / 90 80 70 70 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 43 48 44 53 46 / 90 80 70 50 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 44 46 44 50 45 / 80 80 70 60 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 50 44 51 48 / 80 70 60 60 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 47 48 45 51 47 / 90 80 70 60 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 49 50 46 53 48 / 80 80 70 50 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1208 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR....SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WHILE ONLY VCSH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR ALL AREA TAF
SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REACH ALL AREA TAF SITES BY AT LEAST MID
AFTERNOON...IF NOT SOONER. IN THE MEANTIME...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL BUT LOWER TO IFR WHEN THE MORE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY PUSHES INTO THE TERMINALS. IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD ONCE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER
SUNSET...INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH SO ONLY SHRA IS MENTIONED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FROPA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 12Z FRIDAY FOR THE DFW AREA
TERMINALS AND BY 18Z FOR KACT. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE AN ABRUPT
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS ENHANCED CONVECTION. DESPITE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE 30S...DO NOT EXPECT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
AJS
&&
.UPDATE...
A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO MORNING RAIN CHANCES HAS BEEN MADE AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY
INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE WEST OF I-35/35W DRASTICALLY AS OF MID
MORNING. LOOKING AT THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS...THE TTU
WRF SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE WITH THIS EARLIER DEVELOPMENT
THAN THE HRRR...NAM AND WRF-EAST MODELS...WHICH HOLD OFF MORE TIL
THIS AFTERNOON. I INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF I-35W
TO LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES WEST OF HWY 281. IN
ADDITION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THANKGIVING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THOUGH A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY
EXISTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE DFW METRO NORTH AND WEST...MY
CONCERN IS MORE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE WARMER TEMPS AND
STRONGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG COULD
OCCUR IF HIGHS CAN REACH THE MID 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...
MID LEVEL LASPE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEPER AND CLOSER TO 7 DEG
C/KM ACROSS CENTRAL TX VERSUS 6 DEG C/KM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO RELATIVELY DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LEFT THE AFTERNOON CONFIGURATION OF RAIN CHANCES THE
SAME. IN ADDITION...I TONED DOWN THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT A STRONG OR BRIEF SEVERE STORM
COULDN/T HAPPEN BEING THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CORRELATE WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SPEED SHEAR
BETWEEN 35-45 KTS IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE
CENTRAL TX WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015/
THE OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE...PRIMARILY TO TODAY/S FORECAST WHICH IS PROBABLY THE MOST
UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS BECAUSE WE ARE A LITTLE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS A LEAD IMPULSE AND STRONG
JET STREAK MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL OF
THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THEIR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS AND ALSO BUMPED UP THE
START OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6PM. THE QUESTION
IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT GENERALLY SAYS NO - THAT WE WILL BE
TOO COOL AT THE SURFACE...BUT THEY ARE ONLY FORECASTING UPPER 60S
FOR HIGHS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND WE CURRENTLY ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FORECASTS FROM THE MOS INDICATE WE SHOULD
REACH THE LOW 70S AND MODIFYING THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THOSE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GIVES US ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT A MARGINAL WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. SINCE THIS
THREAT IS SO RELIANT ON DAYTIME INSTABILITY THE WINDOW WILL BE
BRIEF FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM.
THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SHIFT THE
EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL AXIS ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE WEST AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THAT DIRECTION. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING
AVERAGE TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES...WITH THE 7 INCH BULLSEYE NOW
NEAR GAINESVILLE. 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-20 AND
I-30 CORRIDORS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OF COURSE GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND WE
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NAM WHICH HAS DISPLAYED EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND USUALLY IS THE BEST MODEL TO USE IN THIS WEATHER
PATTERN. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NW ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE
DFW METROPLEX AROUND SUNRISE...WACO AREA BY NOON AND CLEARING THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATE AFTERNOON. THE NAM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
LOOK VERY REASONABLE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR KNIFING SOUTH THROUGH
THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER OVER THE
EAST WHERE THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE MORE SHALLOW AND MORE PRONE TO
MODERATION FROM WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE GROUND. TEMPS WILL DROP
20 TO 30 DEGREES WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT SO THE
NUMBERS LISTED ON FRIDAY/S HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS MISLEADING SINCE
TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM APPRECIABLY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GIVEN ALL OF THE RAIN IN THE AREA AND
CONTINUING WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS RAIN IS FALLING. BECAUSE THE
AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS VERY WARM...THE RAIN WILL HELP
TRANSPORT SOME OF THIS HEAT TO THE GROUND. RAINDROPS WILL BE TOO
WARM TO FREEZE WHEN THEY REACH THE SURFACE...SO NO TRUE FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER IF THERE IS A LONG ENOUGH BREAK IN THE
RAIN...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN WATER MAY FREEZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
THIS IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS.
THE TIMING AND CHARACTER OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE
AS THE CAUSE OF LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE CHANGES TO DIFFERENT
FORCING MECHANISMS. TODAY AND TONIGHT/S RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL
BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND BE CAPABLE OF HIGH BUT VERY LOCALIZED
2+ INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
GRADUALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN THERE
COULD BE A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AS THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SOLID BAND OF RAIN
AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
WARM MOIST AIR IS LIFTED VIA FRONTOGENESIS. THIS BAND SHOULD
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NW ZONES AND INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
BY SUNRISE BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL BE SO SHALLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES...ITS LIFTING POWER WILL BECOME
MARGINALIZED. THEREFORE WE EXPECT JUST A LOT OF WEAK SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAINFALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY
AS PACIFIC HURRICANE SANDRA BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA. SANDRA
WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE EAST OF THE BAJA REGION OF MEXICO ON
SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS MEXICO AND THROUGH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE PACIFIC MOISTURE...THE REAL INFLUENCE AND CAUSE OF THE
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN OVER TEXAS WILL BE FROM STRONG DYNAMICS FOR
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS LIFT PEAKS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD PRODUCE A LARGE BAND OF
MODERATE RAIN THAT STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BAND WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE RAIN RATES
WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH WITH THIS ROUND OF RAIN ACTIVITY...THE RAIN
WILL BE PERSISTENT RESULTING IN MULTI-INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ON SATURATED SOILS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDRA CLEAR THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
PRIMARILY DUE TO A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
VERY WET BY TUESDAY BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH THAT SYSTEM
EVERY RUN. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND UKMET SHOW A DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THURSDAY. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW LIGHT RAIN ON
MONDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE REGION.
AGAIN WILL KEEP THE POPS AT 10 PERCENT...BUT KEEP A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER AROUND WITH COOL AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 50 55 38 39 / 70 90 100 90 100
WACO, TX 75 65 69 39 41 / 60 60 80 70 80
PARIS, TX 71 62 68 39 43 / 40 80 90 90 100
DENTON, TX 70 46 49 36 38 / 80 90 100 90 100
MCKINNEY, TX 72 53 56 37 40 / 60 90 100 90 100
DALLAS, TX 74 56 59 38 40 / 60 80 90 90 90
TERRELL, TX 74 64 68 39 42 / 50 70 90 80 90
CORSICANA, TX 75 65 71 41 44 / 50 60 70 80 80
TEMPLE, TX 74 66 70 39 42 / 50 50 70 70 70
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 44 47 33 35 / 80 90 100 90 100
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
949 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.UPDATE...
A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO MORNING RAIN CHANCES HAS BEEN MADE AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY
INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE WEST OF I-35/35W DRASTICALLY AS OF MID
MORNING. LOOKING AT THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS...THE TTU
WRF SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE WITH THIS EARLIER DEVELOPMENT
THAN THE HRRR...NAM AND WRF-EAST MODELS...WHICH HOLD OFF MORE TIL
THIS AFTERNOON. I INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF I-35W
TO LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES WEST OF HWY 281. IN
ADDITION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THANKGIVING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THOUGH A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY
EXISTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE DFW METRO NORTH AND WEST...MY
CONCERN IS MORE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE WARMER TEMPS AND
STRONGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG COULD
OCCUR IF HIGHS CAN REACH THE MID 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...
MID LEVEL LASPE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEPER AND CLOSER TO 7 DEG
C/KM ACROSS CENTRAL TX VERSUS 6 DEG C/KM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO RELATIVELY DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LEFT THE AFTERNOON CONFIGURATION OF RAIN CHANCES THE
SAME. IN ADDITION...I TONED DOWN THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT A STRONG OR BRIEF SEVERE STORM
COULDN/T HAPPEN BEING THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CORRELATE WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SPEED SHEAR
BETWEEN 35-45 KTS IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE
CENTRAL TX WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 548 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015/
/12Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...IFR AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. STRONG COLD FRONT
ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING.
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
WITH STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20 KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY OVER 25 KTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WILL CARRY VCTS FROM 21Z INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE CHANGED TO TSRA IN
A FUTURE TAF ISSUANCE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN
ACTIVITY AT KACT THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY IN THE DFW
METROPLEX...BUT THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.
BETWEEN 12-14Z FRIDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE DFW METROPLEX. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT KACT AROUND
18Z. THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH AROUND 15 KTS. RAIN
WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
MOSTLY SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RAIN WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.
JLDUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015/
THE OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE...PRIMARILY TO TODAY/S FORECAST WHICH IS PROBABLY THE MOST
UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS BECAUSE WE ARE A LITTLE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS A LEAD IMPULSE AND STRONG
JET STREAK MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL OF
THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THEIR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS AND ALSO BUMPED UP THE
START OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6PM. THE QUESTION
IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT GENERALLY SAYS NO - THAT WE WILL BE
TOO COOL AT THE SURFACE...BUT THEY ARE ONLY FORECASTING UPPER 60S
FOR HIGHS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND WE CURRENTLY ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FORECASTS FROM THE MOS INDICATE WE SHOULD
REACH THE LOW 70S AND MODIFYING THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THOSE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GIVES US ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT A MARGINAL WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. SINCE THIS
THREAT IS SO RELIANT ON DAYTIME INSTABILITY THE WINDOW WILL BE
BRIEF FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM.
THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SHIFT THE
EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL AXIS ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE WEST AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THAT DIRECTION. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING
AVERAGE TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES...WITH THE 7 INCH BULLSEYE NOW
NEAR GAINESVILLE. 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-20 AND
I-30 CORRIDORS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OF COURSE GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND WE
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NAM WHICH HAS DISPLAYED EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND USUALLY IS THE BEST MODEL TO USE IN THIS WEATHER
PATTERN. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NW ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE
DFW METROPLEX AROUND SUNRISE...WACO AREA BY NOON AND CLEARING THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATE AFTERNOON. THE NAM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
LOOK VERY REASONABLE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR KNIFING SOUTH THROUGH
THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER OVER THE
EAST WHERE THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE MORE SHALLOW AND MORE PRONE TO
MODERATION FROM WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE GROUND. TEMPS WILL DROP
20 TO 30 DEGREES WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT SO THE
NUMBERS LISTED ON FRIDAY/S HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS MISLEADING SINCE
TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM APPRECIABLY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GIVEN ALL OF THE RAIN IN THE AREA AND
CONTINUING WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS RAIN IS FALLING. BECAUSE THE
AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS VERY WARM...THE RAIN WILL HELP
TRANSPORT SOME OF THIS HEAT TO THE GROUND. RAINDROPS WILL BE TOO
WARM TO FREEZE WHEN THEY REACH THE SURFACE...SO NO TRUE FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER IF THERE IS A LONG ENOUGH BREAK IN THE
RAIN...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN WATER MAY FREEZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
THIS IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS.
THE TIMING AND CHARACTER OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE
AS THE CAUSE OF LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE CHANGES TO DIFFERENT
FORCING MECHANISMS. TODAY AND TONIGHT/S RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL
BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND BE CAPABLE OF HIGH BUT VERY LOCALIZED
2+ INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
GRADUALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN THERE
COULD BE A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AS THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SOLID BAND OF RAIN
AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
WARM MOIST AIR IS LIFTED VIA FRONTOGENESIS. THIS BAND SHOULD
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NW ZONES AND INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
BY SUNRISE BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL BE SO SHALLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES...ITS LIFTING POWER WILL BECOME
MARGINALIZED. THEREFORE WE EXPECT JUST A LOT OF WEAK SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAINFALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY
AS PACIFIC HURRICANE SANDRA BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA. SANDRA
WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE EAST OF THE BAJA REGION OF MEXICO ON
SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS MEXICO AND THROUGH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE PACIFIC MOISTURE...THE REAL INFLUENCE AND CAUSE OF THE
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN OVER TEXAS WILL BE FROM STRONG DYNAMICS FOR
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS LIFT PEAKS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD PRODUCE A LARGE BAND OF
MODERATE RAIN THAT STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BAND WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE RAIN RATES
WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH WITH THIS ROUND OF RAIN ACTIVITY...THE RAIN
WILL BE PERSISTENT RESULTING IN MULTI-INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ON SATURATED SOILS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDRA CLEAR THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
PRIMARILY DUE TO A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
VERY WET BY TUESDAY BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH THAT SYSTEM
EVERY RUN. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND UKMET SHOW A DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THURSDAY. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW LIGHT RAIN ON
MONDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE REGION.
AGAIN WILL KEEP THE POPS AT 10 PERCENT...BUT KEEP A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER AROUND WITH COOL AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 50 55 38 39 / 70 90 100 90 100
WACO, TX 75 65 69 39 41 / 60 60 80 70 80
PARIS, TX 71 62 68 39 43 / 40 80 90 90 100
DENTON, TX 70 46 49 36 38 / 80 90 100 90 100
MCKINNEY, TX 72 53 56 37 40 / 60 90 100 90 100
DALLAS, TX 74 56 59 38 40 / 60 80 90 90 90
TERRELL, TX 74 64 68 39 42 / 50 70 90 80 90
CORSICANA, TX 75 65 71 41 44 / 50 60 70 80 80
TEMPLE, TX 74 66 70 39 42 / 50 50 70 70 70
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 44 47 33 35 / 80 90 100 90 100
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146.
&&
$$
82/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1110 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
.AVIATION...
AREAWIDE CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO IFR GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...NEAR 10 KT OVERNIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. DECKS WILL MOST LIKELY
STICK TO IFR...WITH TEMP IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR OR MAYBE AN
HOUR OR THREE OF LIFR GOING INTO THE PRE-DAWN THANKSGIVING HOURS.
LIGHT SHOWERS...MAYBE DRIZZLE...FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THANKSGIVING CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MID TO HIGH
END MVFR...MAYBE BRIEF VFR...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR DECKS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER 2K FOOT SATURATION SHOULD RE-INTRODUCE
LOW END MVFR/IFR LATE PERIOD CEILINGS. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
THURSDAY SEA FOG MAY INTRUDE ONSHORE THAT WOULD QUICKLY LOWER GLS
VISBYS TO VLIFR. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE FORMING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SE TX THIS
EVE. A FEW SHWRS ARE MOVING NW JUST EAST OF THE SE TX COASTAL
WATERS. LATEST HRRR INDICATING THAT A FEW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING.
THEREFORE...ADDED A 20 POP AND MENTION OF SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NOT SEEING ANY SEA FOG OFFSHORE THIS EVE. APPEARS DW PTS OFFSHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST NEED TO INCREASE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES FROM
CURRENT VALUES TO GET SEA FOG FORMATION TO OCCUR. 33
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/
AVIATION...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SATURATE THE LOWER ONE TO TWO
THOUSAND FEET OVER THE COMING HOURS...MVFR DECKS WITH PERIODIC
IFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND A CONTINUED SOUTHEAST BREEZE. STREAMER
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF METRO AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DISTURBANCES
MOVING UP AHEAD OF A WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS LATER IN THE DAY...INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERY WEATHER OVER CLL/UTS DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 76 68 75 51 / 10 50 40 70 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 76 69 77 63 / 20 30 30 50 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 75 69 75 67 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
CURRENT FORECAST PLAYING OUT WELL SO FAR...THOUGH STARTING TO HAVE
SOME CONCERNS THAT OUR SNOW TOTALS MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE.
12Z GUIDANCE SUITE REALLY TRENDED PRECIPITATION EAST FASTER INTO
THE EVENING...OWING TO MORE EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE BENEATH...SUCH
THAT MANY SPOTS IN THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA MAY WELL END UP WITH
ONLY A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION (ENDING NO LATER
THAN 00Z). STARTING TO SEE MORE AND MORE "UNKNOWN PRECIP"
OBSERVATIONS OUT INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL IA...
SUGGESTING A TRANSITION TO SLEET IS UNDERWAY...IN LINE WITH
EARLIER EXPECTATIONS.
SHOULD SEE THAT TRANSITION LINE CONTINUE WORKING TO THE EAST...
WITH MORE AND MORE SNOW ENTERING THE PICTURE AS WE LOSE THE
INITIAL 2-3C WARM NOSE. STILL...JUST NOT SURE WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH
PRECIP TO REALLY DELIVER OUR CURRENT 2-3" AS FORECAST...AND WILL
BEGIN THE TREND OF LOWERING AMOUNTS TO SOME DEGREE. ALSO NOT SO
SURE WHAT IMPACT THERE WILL BE GIVEN WARM ROAD TEMPS INTO THE LOW
40S (WEBCAMS IN THE CURRENT SNOW AREA SHOWING JUST WET ROADS SO
FAR)...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER RATES
EXPECTED PER RADAR TRENDS...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR US TO SLUSH UP THE ROADS. OVERALL...THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL ALONE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COUPLED WITH RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A LONG
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WAS SENDING
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING MOST OF THIS
RAIN ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL
IA/NORTHERN IL...WITHIN BAND OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THROUGH WESTERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA. OTHERWISE... FAIRLY GOOD
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE AREA...RANGING FROM MIDDLE/UPPER
30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI.
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES VERY LITTLE TODAY WHILE A
WEAK AREA AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO SOUTHEAST WI BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. THERMAL
PROFILE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CAUSE A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WI BY LATER THIS MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH THE
DAY..TRANSITIONING TO WINTRY MIX/SNOW THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THIS PRECIPITATION EAST
OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...COULD
SEE LOSS OF CLOUD ICE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AND LIGHT
GLAZING.
BOTTOM LINE...AS OF NOW...LOOKS LIKE 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM CHARLES CITY IA TO WINONA MN AND NEILLSVILLE WI...WITH A
DUSTING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. BASED ON THIS AND
GLAZING POTENTIAL...WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
PLACE AND HAVE DAYSHIFT EVALUATE IF EXPANSION EASTWARD IS NEEDED
BASED ON PRECIPITATION TYPE TRENDS/INTENSITY WITH 12Z MODEL RUN.
DRY/COLDER WEATHER IS THEN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S.
SNOW/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT NOT GOING TO NAIL DOWN AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF FOCUSED FORCING. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
IFR CONDITIONS ARE SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...
PERIODS OF RAIN MIXING WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SLEET AND
THEN SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN GENERAL...THE LATEST TRENDS
SUPPORT A FASTER EXIT TO PRECIPITATION...SUGGESTING THAT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE MINOR...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A WINDOW
OF SOME HEAVIER SNOW CLIPPING KRST BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z. THE WINTRY
MIX WILL END AT KLSE BY 04Z...WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING AS
OUR SYSTEM DEPARTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
029-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ032.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
095.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ079-
086-087-094.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ009-
018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ008.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.UPDATE...
PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...AS COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
BY MID AFTERNOON...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE VERY HIGH END OF WHAT IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MAY SEE
A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
THIS MIX SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT GIVEN HOW WARM IT WILL BE
INTO THIS EVENING.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TODAY...WITH LOW CIGS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WILL PROBABLY SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY AS
COLDER/DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO
VFR BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY GO DOWN WITHIN HEAVIER RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH REDUCED VISIBILITY...AS THREAT FOR
FOG LOOKS LIKE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT GIVEN HOW FAST SNOW
MELTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
HAS BEEN HARD TO GET MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WITH
PERIODIC WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND POCKETS OF OMEGA MOVING OUT
AHEAD OF POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH. THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SEEN ON AREA RAP SOUNDINGS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH PERSISTENT WARMTH AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AS
REGION COMES UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET MAX THAT
STRENGTHENS FROM 140 KNOTS TO 160 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING.
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE FASTER THAN NAM IN BRINGING A SURFACE
WAVE UP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BISECTING THE STATE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTHENING
FRONTOGENESIS PROVIDES THE FORCING FOR THE STEADIER...HEAVIER
RAIN ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
STILL LOOKING AT RAINFALL TOTALS REACHING BETWEEN 1 INCH AND 1.7
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ADD TO THE WATER FROM MELTING
SNOW ALREADY MOVING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. STATEMENTS ARE
OUT FOR RIVERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THAT ARE APPROACHING BANKFULL
STAGE...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY GOING INTO FLOOD IF FORECASTED RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.
WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND SOME SLEET AS
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THIS MORNING INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO
MID 50S IN THE FAR SE...THEN STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DROPPING WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
COLDER AIR WILL SLIP INTO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...
QUICKER IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS MEANS THERE
IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH RAIN AND
SNOW. DRIER AIR WILL BE SETTLING IN WITH THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY AND
MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER. THE 06Z NAM CAME IN NEARLY DRY FOR THE 12-
18Z TIME PERIOD. ANY MIXED PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LOW-
IMPACT.
LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN
THE 20S.
A FAVORABLE NNE WIND WILL ALLOW FOR A LONG FETCH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN FAR
SOUTHEAST WI. LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 45F/7C NEAR SOUTHEAST
WI... AND 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND -3C WITH EVEN
COLDER 925MB TEMPS. DELTA-T VALUES LOOK A LITTLE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT
BUT NOT BY MUCH. AT A MINIMUM... THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA. THE NAM IS SHOWING LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL DRIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER MILD AND WET SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THAT UPPER LOW... BUT THE LATEST MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER.
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD CROSS WI TUE MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING AND ACTUALLY TEMPERATURE PROFILES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MILD AIR SURGING INTO
SOUTHERN WI ON THE LEADING EDGE SO EXPECTING IT TO BEGIN AS RAIN.
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI FROM W TO E MONDAY NIGHT SO
THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO SNOW BUT THIS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE
DRY SLOT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING... SO
THE SNOW WILL BE WET AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. SOUTHERN WI SHOULD SEE
SOME LIGHT DEFORMATION AREA SNOW TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT
THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL FALL IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
RIDGING WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE AREA
HAS DELAYED MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE LATE MORNING...THEN CIGS ANBD
VSBYS WILL TREND DOWN TO IFR AND POSSIBLY SOME LIFR AS THE HEAVIER
PCPN MOVES IN. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL LOWER AS THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTH AND STRENGTHENING WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTV
TONIGHT.
MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW BUT WATCHING
FOR WINDS SPEEDS TO INCREASE AFTER THEY FELL OFF OVERNIGHT AS
EXPECTED. IF WINDS DO NOT INCREASE AS MUCH AS FORECAST...MAY HAVE
TO END THIS CURRENT ADVISORY WITHT HE MID-MORNING UPDATE. LOOKING
FOR STEADIER RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME PERIODS OF DENSE FOG AS HIGHER
DEW POINT AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS TROUGH WILL TURN INTO A COLD FRONT BEHINDS THE DEPARTING LOW
LATER TONIGHT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR
THESE STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS THAT WILL PRODUCE GUSTS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE FOR A TIME FRIDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643-644.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COUPLED WITH RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A LONG
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WAS SENDING
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING MOST OF THIS
RAIN ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL
IA/NORTHERN IL...WITHIN BAND OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THROUGH WESTERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA. OTHERWISE... FAIRLY GOOD
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE AREA...RANGING FROM MIDDLE/UPPER
30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI.
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES VERY LITTLE TODAY WHILE A
WEAK AREA AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO SOUTHEAST WI BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. THERMAL
PROFILE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CAUSE A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WI BY LATER THIS MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH THE
DAY..TRANSITIONING TO WINTRY MIX/SNOW THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THIS PRECIPITATION EAST
OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...COULD
SEE LOSS OF CLOUD ICE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AND LIGHT
GLAZING.
BOTTOM LINE...AS OF NOW...LOOKS LIKE 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM CHARLES CITY IA TO WINONA MN AND NEILLSVILLE WI...WITH A
DUSTING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. BASED ON THIS AND
GLAZING POTENTIAL...WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
PLACE AND HAVE DAYSHIFT EVALUATE IF EXPANSION EASTWARD IS NEEDED
BASED ON PRECIPITATION TYPE TRENDS/INTENSITY WITH 12Z MODEL RUN.
DRY/COLDER WEATHER IS THEN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S.
SNOW/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT NOT GOING TO NAIL DOWN AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF FOCUSED FORCING. OTHERWISE..SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
LIFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MINOR
IMPROVEMENT LATER TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL TO THE EAST.
PCPN TYPES ARE CHALLENGING AS A SIMPLE DEGREE CHANGE ALOFT AND/OR AT
THE SFC WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN WHAT FALLS...AND HOW VSBYS
REACT. AS IT LOOKS NOW...IT ALL STARTS AS RAIN...A FEW HOUR MIX OF
SLEET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD
TOWARD THE END OF THE PCPN EVENT WOULD RESULT IN FZDZ/RA FOR A
COUPLE HOURS...IF THAT OCCURS. EXPECT UPDATES AS OBS AND RADAR
TRENDS LEND SOME CLARITY TO HOW SOON/DELAYED SOME OF THE PCPN TYPES
WILL BE. EXPECTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT KRST OF 1 TO 2...MOSTLY ON
GRASSY SURFACES. AN INCH MORE WOULDN/T SURPRISE. KLSE SHOULD STAY
UNDER AN INCH...DEALING WITH LIQUID LONGER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-029-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR WIZ032.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-095.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR MNZ079-086-087-094.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ009-018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ008.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
511 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
HAS BEEN HARD TO GET MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WITH
PERIODIC WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND POCKETS OF OMEGA MOVING OUT
AHEAD OF POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH. THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SEEN ON AREA RAP SOUNDINGS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH PERSISTENT WARMTH AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AS
REGION COMES UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET MAX THAT
STRENGTHENS FROM 140 KNOTS TO 160 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING.
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE FASTER THAN NAM IN BRINGING A SURFACE
WAVE UP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BISECTING THE STATE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTHENING
FRONTOGENESIS PROVIDES THE FORCING FOR THE STEADIER...HEAVIER
RAIN ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
STILL LOOKING AT RAINFALL TOTALS REACHING BETWEEN 1 INCH AND 1.7
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ADD TO THE WATER FROM MELTING
SNOW ALREADY MOVING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. STATEMENTS ARE
OUT FOR RIVERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THAT ARE APPROACHING BANKFULL
STAGE...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY GOING INTO FLOOD IF FORECASTED RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.
WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND SOME SLEET AS
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THIS MORNING INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO
MID 50S IN THE FAR SE...THEN STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DROPPING WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
COLDER AIR WILL SLIP INTO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...
QUICKER IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS MEANS THERE
IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH RAIN AND
SNOW. DRIER AIR WILL BE SETTLING IN WITH THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY AND
MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER. THE 06Z NAM CAME IN NEARLY DRY FOR THE 12-
18Z TIME PERIOD. ANY MIXED PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LOW-
IMPACT.
LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN
THE 20S.
A FAVORABLE NNE WIND WILL ALLOW FOR A LONG FETCH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN FAR
SOUTHEAST WI. LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 45F/7C NEAR SOUTHEAST
WI... AND 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND -3C WITH EVEN
COLDER 925MB TEMPS. DELTA-T VALUES LOOK A LITTLE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT
BUT NOT BY MUCH. AT A MINIMUM... THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA. THE NAM IS SHOWING LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL DRIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER MILD AND WET SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THAT UPPER LOW... BUT THE LATEST MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER.
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD CROSS WI TUE MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING AND ACTUALLY TEMPERATURE PROFILES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MILD AIR SURGING INTO
SOUTHERN WI ON THE LEADING EDGE SO EXPECTING IT TO BEGIN AS RAIN.
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI FROM W TO E MONDAY NIGHT SO
THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO SNOW BUT THIS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE
DRY SLOT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING... SO
THE SNOW WILL BE WET AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. SOUTHERN WI SHOULD SEE
SOME LIGHT DEFORMATION AREA SNOW TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT
THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL FALL IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
RIDGING WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE AREA
HAS DELAYED MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE LATE MORNING...THEN CIGS ANBD
VSBYS WILL TREND DOWN TO IFR AND POSSIBLY SOME LIFR AS THE HEAVIER
PCPN MOVES IN. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL LOWER AS THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTH AND STRENGTHENING WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTV
TONIGHT.
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW BUT WATCHING
FOR WINDS SPEEDS TO INCREASE AFTER THEY FELL OFF OVERNIGHT AS
EXPECTED. IF WINDS DO NOT INCREASE AS MUCH AS FORECAST...MAY HAVE
TO END THIS CURRENT ADVISORY WITHT HE MID-MORNING UPDATE. LOOKING
FOR STEADIER RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME PERIODS OF DENSE FOG AS HIGHER
DEW POINT AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS TROUGH WILL TURN INTO A COLD FRONT BEHINDS THE DEPARTING LOW
LATER TONIGHT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR
THESE STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS THAT WILL PRODUCE GUSTS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE FOR A TIME FRIDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643-644.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COUPLED WITH RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A LONG
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WAS SENDING
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING MOST OF THIS
RAIN ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL
IA/NORTHERN IL...WITHIN BAND OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THROUGH WESTERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA. OTHERWISE... FAIRLY GOOD
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE AREA...RANGING FROM MIDDLE/UPPER
30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI.
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES VERY LITTLE TODAY WHILE A
WEAK AREA AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO SOUTHEAST WI BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. THERMAL
PROFILE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CAUSE A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WI BY LATER THIS MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH THE
DAY..TRANSITIONING TO WINTRY MIX/SNOW THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THIS PRECIPITATION EAST
OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...COULD
SEE LOSS OF CLOUD ICE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AND LIGHT
GLAZING.
BOTTOM LINE...AS OF NOW...LOOKS LIKE 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM CHARLES CITY IA TO WINONA MN AND NEILLSVILLE WI...WITH A
DUSTING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. BASED ON THIS AND
GLAZING POTENTIAL...WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
PLACE AND HAVE DAYSHIFT EVALUATE IF EXPANSION EASTWARD IS NEEDED
BASED ON PRECIPITATION TYPE TRENDS/INTENSITY WITH 12Z MODEL RUN.
DRY/COLDER WEATHER IS THEN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S.
SNOW/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT NOT GOING TO NAIL DOWN AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF FOCUSED FORCING. OTHERWISE..SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS HAVE FINALLY MOVED INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GIVEN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL IA AS OF 26.0530Z...
ADJUSTED PRECIP TO REACH KLSE BY 26.09Z AND KRST BY 26.14Z...
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIP NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY INTO
THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. THINK
THERE WILL BE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF A RA/PL/POSSIBLY FZRA MIX
AT KRST BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...BUT CHANGE OVER SHOULD BE
LATER AND QUICKER AT KLSE WITH LESS OF A MIX. LIGHT SNOW WILL END
AT KRST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SNOW AT KLSE
THROUGH 27.06Z. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORE HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
KLSE...NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 10 TO 16 KTS WILL BE THE RULE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-029-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR WIZ032.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-095.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR MNZ079-086-087-094.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ009-018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ008.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1142 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
NEVADA...TROUGHING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND BROAD RIDGING
FROM TEXAS INTO NEW ENGLAND. REAL ONLY SHORTWAVE OF NOTE WAS IN
NORTHWEST KS. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW UNDERNEATH THE BROAD RIDGING
HELPING TO PROPEL WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. 925MB TEMP AT
MPX JUMPED FROM 2C AT 00Z TO 6C AT 12Z. 50F DEWPOINTS WERE
APPROACHING THE IA/MO BORDER...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LAYED UP FROM
DLH TO LINCOLN NE. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS
BACK SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ALONE HAS PUSHED
READINGS WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW 50S FOR LOCATIONS THAT SAW
SOME PEAKS OF SUN. THE RECENT WARMTH HAS REALLY DENTED THE SNOWPACK
TOO...WITH DEPTHS MOSTLY UNDER 5 INCHES PER 12Z COOP REPORTS...WHICH
HAS GREATLY REDUCED ITS IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED YET...AS THE CLOUD LAYER
REMAINS SOMEWHAT SHALLOW AND RELATIVELY SPEAKING HIGH BASED / ALL
EITHER HIGH MVFR OR VFR IN AVIATION TERMS/.
MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES SLIGHTLY EAST...WE SEE THE FRONT OFF TO OUR
WEST MOVE ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THU.
THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
PUSHING WARM/MOIST AIR INTO US...NOTED IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
CLIMBING FROM 0.5-0.75 INCHES AT 18Z TODAY TO 0.75-1 INCH AT 12Z
THU. READINGS WILL LIKELY CLIMB THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
TOO...BEFORE FALLING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS ANTICIPATING
THANKSGIVING DAY CALENDAR HIGH TO OCCUR TONIGHT. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALSO OCCURS FROM NEAR THE SURFACE TO 6000 FT...WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT TAKING PLACE IN THIS LAYER. THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE
DRIZZLE. IN FACT...LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO SHOULD SEE FLAT
OUT HIGHER QPF / LIGHT RAIN TAKE PLACE. THIS IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME
THAT THE SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
THE DRIZZLE AND INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS EVIDENT IN
ALL MODEL QPF PROGS...WITH VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS TONIGHT...GIVEN TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING AND PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ABOVE THE LOWER
CLOUDS TO PRECLUDE ANY SEEDER-FEEDER TO INTRODUCE SNOW CRYSTALS.
THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY GETS MORE INTERESTING. THE TWO
UPPER TROUGHS OFF TO OUR WEST ATTEMPT TO PHASE...WHICH IN TURN
INTENSIFIES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND THE FRONT THAT MOSTLY PASSED
THROUGH OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFIES THE UPPER JET AND THROUGH THERMAL
WIND RELATIONSHIP...INTENSIFIES THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED TO HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST...THE NET RESULT IS FOR
PRECIPITATION TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...LUCKILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN BUT DEFINITELY NOT
ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS...LOOKS TO FALL IN CLAYTON/GRANT
COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION EXISTS OF STRONGEST AND
DEEPEST FRONTOGENESIS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO EVEN SEE SOME LIGHTNING NEAR DUBUQUE WITH UP
TO 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED. FARTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPER SATURATION FROM THE
SURFACE TO THE TROPOPAUSE TO PREVENT LOSS OF SNOW/ICE
CRYSTALS...SHOULD HELP GRADUALLY TURN PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET
THEN SNOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FROM MCW TO RST AND EAU. SINCE
THE FORCING IS WEAKER COMPARED TO CLAYTON/GRANT
COUNTIES...PRECIPITATION IS LIGHTER...BUT STILL LIKELY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE TRAVELING ISSUES. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
ON THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FINALLY
BEGINS TO MAKE SOME BETTER PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH
ALL OF THE FORCING...PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE THAT WAS OVER OUR
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO THE EAST. APPEARS IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE
LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FULLY EXIT OUR AREA.
UNTIL THEN...HOWEVER...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION NOTED BY
925MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -5C TO 5C AT 00Z FRI TO -8 TO -5C BY 12Z
FRI...COMBINED WITH A DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN SHOULD HELP TRANSITION
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING. NOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
WHEN THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN...THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS WELL AS
NOTED IN THE CURRENT AND PAST RUNS OF THE GFS. APPEARS ANY SNOW OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STILL ENOUGH OF AN
IMPACT TO WARRANT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHWEST.
SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE AMOUNT FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF APPEARS TOO
LITTLE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
WEATHER GOES INTO QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL LAND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE...AND THE AREA GOES
UNDER A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY LATE SATURDAY. 925MB TEMPS
HOLD BETWEEN -5 AND -8C FOR FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE WARMING
TO 0 TO -2C SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE READINGS SUPPORT
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MS RIVER
COULD STAY JUST BELOW 30 ON FRIDAY.
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK PER THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WHICH GRADUALLY MAKES
ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION MON THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THEN THE MOISTURE
GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD SUCH THAT ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. CERTAINLY SOME TIMING AND
OTHER SYNOPTIC DIFFERENCES THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ONLY IN
THE 20- 40 RANGE AT THIS TIME. COOL AIR UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW
COMBINED WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WHICH RESULTS IN SNOW AS THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. DEFINITELY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO LOOK AT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS HAVE FINALLY MOVED INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GIVEN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL IA AS OF 26.0530Z...
ADJUSTED PRECIP TO REACH KLSE BY 26.09Z AND KRST BY 26.14Z...
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIP NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY INTO
THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. THINK
THERE WILL BE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF A RA/PL/POSSIBLY FZRA MIX
AT KRST BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...BUT CHANGE OVER SHOULD BE
LATER AND QUICKER AT KLSE WITH LESS OF A MIX. LIGHT SNOW WILL END
AT KRST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SNOW AT KLSE
THROUGH 27.06Z. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORE HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
KLSE...NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 10 TO 16 KTS WILL BE THE RULE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ017-029-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ032.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ088-095.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ079-086-087-094.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ009-018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ008.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1034 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...
...COLD BUT LESS SNOW TOMORROW...
THE MODELS ARE NOT DOING VERY WELL TODAY IN CAPTURING BL PROCESSES
AND THE CLOUD/PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA. RELATIVELY SHALLOW
COLD AIR AND SERLY FLOW ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY HAS LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH TODAY...ALBEIT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION...WHILE THE REST OF
THE PLAINS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY PRECIP-FREE. MEANWHILE...THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...DESPITE DEEP SATURATED
LAYERS PROGGED BY THE MODELS. SO...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS A BIT
PROBLEMATIC AND PERSISTENCE WILL RULE FOR NOW.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER WAVE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NW AZ/SW UT EJECTS TO THE NE INTO WY BY SAT
AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE THIS
EVENING...SO BEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE FROM
NOW THROUGH ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT. MOST ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...UNDER AN INCH. THE SAN JUANS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT SNOW SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA.
ANOTHER AREA THAT MIGHT SEE SOME RESPECTABLE ACCUMS IS THE ARKANSAS
RIVER CANYON ALONG WITH FREMONT COUNTY....THE NRN SANGRES...AND THE
WET MTN VALLEY. HIGH RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR ARE SHOWING THE BEST
EVENING POTENTIAL IN THAT REGION...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL PRETTY UNCERTAIN WHERE EXACTLY
THE HIGHEST ACCUMS WILL BE...OR WHETHER THIS HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPS AT ALL...SO WILL KEEP HEADLINE-FREE FOR NOW. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. IN
GENERAL...SUSPECT THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH
SAT MORNING SO HAVE CUT BACK QPF ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ADDED SOME
AREAS OF PC FZDZ OVER THE ERN PLAINS INTO SAT MORNING...AS MODEL
SOUNDING INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT FZDZ IN THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS.
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BUT IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE COLD...WITH TEMPS ON THE PLAINS STRUGGLING TO HIT 30 DEGREES.
WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE THE MID ELEVATION AREAS CLOSE TO THE WETS AND
SRN SANGRES...DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR IS. THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOULD ALSO GET ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN FOR THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF OVER SE CO...WHILE THE NAM IS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS. WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL TO OUR NW THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME MODEST FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR PRECIP...BUT
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP DO NOT LOOK VERY HIGH...AND THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR SOME CLEARING BY SAT AFTERNOON. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
SAT NIGHT THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE EXTREME SWRN
CORNER OF WY. FORECAST MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...BUT DO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FAR SERN
PLAINS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FZDZ AS WELL. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE LOWS IN THE TEENS.
ON SUN THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL WY. A
DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW AROUND THE SRN SIDE OF THE LOW...IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO WRN CO...ENHANCING SNOW CHANCES ALONG THE CONTDVD AND
MAYBE INTO THE TELLER COUNTY AND PIKES PEAK AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND MTNS THERE WL CONTINUE TO BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME PATCHY FZDZ STILL POSSIBLE IN AREAS
NEAR THE KS BORDER. HIGH TEMPS ON SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
OVER MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.
SUN EVENING THE UPR TROF AND DISTURBANCE MOVE ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...LIKELY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE EASTERN MTNS
AND PLAINS. AT THIS TIME ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. BY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND WITH THE PCPN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THE
NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER ENDING THE PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST THAN THE
GFS.
ON MON THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ERN HALF OF
NE...LEAVING W TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS. MSTR IN THE NW FLOW WL LIKELY KEEP SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS ON MON. HIGHS ON MON MAY GET
INTO THE LOWER 40S OVR SOME OF THE SERN PLAINS...BUT THE REST OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.
TUE THROUGH FRI DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE
EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS BY FRI BEING IN THE 50S OVR THE SERN PLAINS
AND IN THE 40S OVER THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
FOR KCOS AND KPUB...
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO LATE MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR AND
UPSLOPE FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TOMORROW EVENING...AND THEN LOW CIGS MAY RETURN BY LATE EVENING.
ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT AND NO SIGNIF ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
FOR KALS...
GUSTY S WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EALY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. COULD SEE
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS LOW CIGS DEVELOP OVER THE VALLEY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ067-068.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE
ACROSS THE DELMARVA AS NOTED BY SEVERAL REGION OBS AND THE NARRE.
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
AND LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE 40`S
TODAY.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT
BUT ENOUGH LIFT LOOKS PRESENT FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE
LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS AND NW NJ IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HRRR AND
RAP NOT RULING OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THIS MORNING. FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL TIMING, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN WHAT WAS MODELED 24 HOURS AGO. WITH THE FRONT NOT ARRIVING TILL
THE AFTERNOON, THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NOONTIME ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
NORTHERN NJ, ONLY NEAR 50 THEN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40`S. MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WITH SOME WAA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FOR THE PHILADELPHIA AREA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60`S, LIKELY A HAIR ABOVE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TAKING
WITH IT THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL TO THE PHILADELPHIA
METRO AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. HOWEVER, QPF THROUGHOUT THE NEAR AND
SHORT TERM PERIODS LOOKS RATHER MEAGER UNDER 1/4TH OF AN INCH ON
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS, THE SREF AND WPC GUIDANCE. COLDER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO FUNNEL IN BEHIND THE FRONT, PERHAPS A HAIR SLOWER/WARMER
THAN INDICATED WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO
SLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RIGHT NOW ANY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEPART
BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTH AND WEST. EVEN IF THAT WERE NOT THE CASE, TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WILL BE SLOWER AT 925 AND 850 MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND NOT SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BEST LIFT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF US INTO SRN VA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM ERN CANADA. ACCORDINGLY, ANY LEFTOVER
ANAFRONTAL RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AND LIKELY
SHIFT SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE ON SUNDAY. NLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL DRAW COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 40S IN NE PA/NW NJ AND LM50S ELSEWHERE, WHICH IS ACTUALLY
RIGHT AT CLIMO FOR THE END OF NOV.
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE HIGH BUILDS,
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY IN SRN DE AND ADJACENT EASTERN MD. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR THESE FAR SRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRY FOR
MONDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
COOL.
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE AN
OVERRUNNING SETUP ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP RETURNING TO
THE AREA EITHER LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD US. IF THE PRECIP COMES IN BEFORE SUNRISE,
THEN MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY AT THE ONSET IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I- 80 (WHERE THE RETREATING COLD AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE IS TYPICALLY LAST TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE OROGRAPHY). WILL
KEEP THIS THREAT OUT OF THE HWO THIS FAR OUT SINCE IT SEEMS LIKE A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO BUT STILL BEARS WATCHING. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THRU THE AREA,
WHICH IS WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS AND GEM AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BASED ON THE ECMWF.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE MIDWEEK COLD
FROPA. ASIDE FROM MAYBE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY IN THE
POCONOS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT (WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THRU),
EXPECT A DRY ENDING TO THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOCALIZED FOG
IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, LOCAL TOOLS INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCE
WILL BE AWAY FROM MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KMIV. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KMIV UNTIL 12Z OR SO.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO FAVOR VFR ON SATURDAY WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING GRADUALLY. WE HAVE INDICATED A TRANSITION TO MVFR
CEILINGS AT KRDG AND KABE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS TIMING IS A FEW HOURS LATER FOR
KPHL, KTTN AND TAF SITES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EVEN POSSIBLE FROM MID EVENING ON TONIGHT, MORE UNCERTAINTY ATTM
TO INCLUDE WITH THE 06Z TAFS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THEN MORE NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS MAY YIELD MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN
SRN TERMINALS (ILG-MIV-ACY) INITIALLY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS TO VFR ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE DAY. N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY VFR W/ CLEARING SKIES.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MARINE STRATUS MOVING INLAND. MIV AND ACY WOULD BE MOST VULNERABLE
OF THE TAF SITES TO MVFR CIGS IN THIS SETUP. RAIN MAY ALSO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN
LIKELY. LIGHT ELY WINDS BECOME SELY LATE.
WEDNESDAY...ATTM, THE RAIN MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE MORNING.
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS
INDICATING IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER
SLOWER SOLUTIONS DELAY THE IMPROVEMENT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL OCCUR WITH A COLD FROPA. THE FROPA WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WIND SHIFT FROM SLY TO WLY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER SEAS WE REMAIN AROUND FIVE FEET THROUGH TODAY BEFORE
FALLING TO AROUND FOUR FEET TONIGHT. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH 23Z
FOR THE HIGH SEAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SEAS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY DELAYED FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET TONIGHT WITH THE
PERSISTENT ESE SWELL. FOR NOW THOUGH, BOTH WAVEWATCH AND NWPS HAVE
SEAS FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET BY THIS EVENING, SO WILL NOT EXTEND
THE SCA.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING NELY WINDS 15-20 KT
WILL ACCOMPANY A PRESSURE SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH OF A GUST
POTENTIAL IN THIS SETUP SO GETTING 25 KT GUSTS ARE QUESTIONABLE.
HOWEVER, SEAS IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 4-7
FT, SO A SCA WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT, THEN SHARPLY
TURN WLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX RADAR IS CURRENTLY INOPERABLE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
ABOUT THE OUTAGE. THE RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
EQUIPMENT...KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1217 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY, STALLING NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CIRRUS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT
IN THE WEST SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SOME LOCALIZED FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR THE DEW POINT READINGS IN
SPOTS. HOWEVER, THE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NEARLY AS
WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO
WEST SURFACE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S IN MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD OFF TILL AFTER DAYBREAK AS
DEPICTED ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WERE REMOVED WITH THE 12:30 AM UPDATE THROUGH SUNRISE.
ALSO, TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED IN A FEW SPOTS BASED ON LOCALIZED
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE SLOWER FCST TIMING NOW ALLOWS FOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 60S GENLY SOUTH OF PHL...BUT COOLER IN THE 50S
FARTHER NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL AS LOW- LVL CAA. AGAIN...THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE
FRONT IS SLOWER THAN FCST.
WE CONTINUE TO SHOW CHC POPS SPREADING SWD WITH FRONT ON
SATURDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATE AT BEST WEAK FORCING FOR UVV SO
QPF AMOUNTS ARE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE PHL AREA DURING THE AFTN AND REACH SRN NJ/NRN DE
BY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS TO GET
HUNG UP A BIT AND MAY NOT DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARDS, THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAIN. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A TON OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH
THE FRONT WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CLOUDIER AS A RESULT OF REMAINING CLOSER TO THE
STALLING BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS AS THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TAPS INTO SOME OF THE COLDER
AIR SEEPING DOWN FROM CANADA. EXPECT A MUCH COLDER NIGHT OVER THE
REGION AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RESPOND TO THE AIR ENTERING THE
AREA. ONE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WE
RETAIN, WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN A SMIDGEN HIGHER THAN THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS. OVERALL, EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT, AT THIS POINT A STALLING BOUNDARY, JUST
TO OUR SOUTH. AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY CONTINUE TO SEE OFF AND
ON SHOWERS AS A RESULT OF THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BUT FOR THE MOST PART, WE SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING CONDITIONS FOR
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS OUR AREA.
BY TUESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES, LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
CUT OFF LOW IN THE MID LEVELS. AS THIS SYSTEM START TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THE STALLED BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING SHOWERS TO
OUR AREA. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EASTWARD PUSH, A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY, WE SHOULD SEE SOME
WARMING OCCUR AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 50S AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME 60S, AS WE START TO TAP INTO THE WARM MOIST AIR
EMANATING FROM THE GULF REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND ONCE IT MOVES THROUGH, HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS AND WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT WITH A RETURN TO SOME
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS AND
EVENTUALLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING OVERHEAD. LOCALIZED FOG
IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE FOG SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD
AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. WE HAVE INDICATED A VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION AT KMIV BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR VFR ON SATURDAY WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING GRADUALLY. WE HAVE INDICATED A TRANSITION TO MVFR
CEILINGS AT KRDG AND KABE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS TIMING IS A FEW HOURS LATER FOR
KPHL, KTTN AND TAF SITES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EVEN POSSIBILE FROM MID EVENING ON, LOW PROBABILITY ATTM TO
INCLUDE WITH 06Z TAFS.
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN SPOTS. THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY MORNING, VEERING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THROUGHOUT
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS BUT SOME GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY TOWARDS THE COAST.
TUESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS, WITH IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE, IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE WEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS IS IN PLACE FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 600 PM
SATURDAY. SEAS ARE DUE MAINLY TO A SELY SWELL WHICH IS FCST BY
WAVE WATCH MODEL TO INCREASE SMWHT FURTHER. SO SCA WILL BE LEFT
AS IS ALTHO IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE MARGINAL FOR OUR NORTHERN
WATERS. THE ENDING TIME LATE SAT AFTN STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR
NOW.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS MAY BE NEAR 5 FEET AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS AS WE SEE AN INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP. SEAS SHOULD
START TO SUBSIDE STARTING MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN
WATERS MAY TAKE LONGER TO DROP, REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TAKING PLACE.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH AND THEN TO THE
WEST WITH BOTH SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS RECORDED AT ALLENTOWN YESTERDAY AND
THE RECORD WAS TIED AT READING. RECORD EVENT REPORTS WERE ISSUED
FOR BOTH LOCATIONS.
ALLENTOWN PA - 65 - YESTERDAY
62 - PREVIOUS RECORD SET IN 1959 AND
1988
READING PA - 65 - YESTERDAY
65 - PREVIOUS RECORD SET IN 2011
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX RADAR IS CURRENTLY INOPERABLE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED ABOUT THE OUT
AGE. THE RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...AMC/MEOLA
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...GAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
146 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
.UPDATE...
745 PM CST
GOING FORECAST TONIGHT LARGELY IN DECENT SHAPE. MAIN TWEAK WAS TO
LOWER HOURLY POPS IN SOUTHERN CWA AS OBS HAVE ONLY BEEN SHOWING
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS SO ITS PROBABLE
NOT ALL AREAS ARE SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP. KEPT DRIZZLE WORDING
GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA WITH LOW DEWPOINT SPREADS
AND CONTINUED BROAD LIFT FROM UPPER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. SOLID STRATUS DECK STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
CENTRAL WI...THEREFORE LOCKED IN FULL CLOUD COVER UNTIL ABOUT MID
DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP A FEW DEGREES
FROM CURRENT LEVELS BY DAYBREAK. TWEAKED A FEW LOCATIONS UP A
DEGREE OR SO CONSIDERING CLOUDS AND WINDS NOT GOING CALM. WILL BE
ABLE TO LET THE LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY GO AS PLANNED AT
9PM...WITH WAVES AT SOUTH BUOY DOWN TO 8 FEET AS OF THIS WRITING
AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT MARINE OB SITES.
ONLY OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS LAKE EFFECT PLUME INTO FAR NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN ON LAST SEVERAL HOURLY RUNS OF
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS HRRR AND HRRR-X. WITH UNIMPRESSIVE LAKE TO
850 MB DELTA T/S OF 9 OR 10 CELSIUS YIELDING LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
AND NOT MUCH INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT
OF LAKE PLUME. KEPT "SILENT" POPS AROUND 10% IN GRIDS.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
212 PM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON IS SLOWLY SLIDING
SOUTHEAST TOGETHER WITH AN AXIS OF PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FGEN ALIGNED
ALONG A COLD FRONT. FARTHER NORTH...A RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE IS
STARTING TO WORK INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS EVIDENCED BY FALLING
DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. AFTER THE AREA DRIES
OUT THIS EVENING...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND NEAR SEASONALLY NORMAL HIGHS UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE AND THE CORRESPONDING HEIGHT RISES ALOFT.
LENNING
&&
.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT LOCALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE IN
LIFTING THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. IT IS A LITTLE HARD TO BUY
INTO SUCH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM A CONSIDERABLY WRAPPED UP
FEATURE...BUT THE KICK APPEARS TO COME FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS APPARENT ON THE WV IMAGERY AND BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE IT ANALYZED WELL...SO WILL PLAN TO
FOLLOW THE IDEAS OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
MOST OF MONDAY...OR AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL
AREA SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LIFTING
OUT OF THE GULF AHEAD OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH STAYS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHIELD
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING THIS WOULD ALL
APPEAR TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE
OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES LIKELY
WILL CLIMB OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOW CENTERS BOTH LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WRAP COLDER AIR AROUND
TO THEIR SOUTH. LOW LEVELS DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVES AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
SNOW.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE AREA AGAIN SHOULD HAVE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER...AND CLEARING SKIES WOULD APPEAR TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS
NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* BRIEF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 08Z.
* NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH NOON.
* MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SLOW TO DRY OUT TODAY. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES AIDED BY A
STOUT INVERSION AND UNSTABLE AIR AND ADDED MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT CAUSING PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE/RAIN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS IS TRANSLATING EAST SO DPA
AND ORD...AND POSSIBLY MDW AND GYY...MAY EXPERIENCE THIS PRIOR TO
08Z.
THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY START TO ERODE LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY SEE AT
LEAST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON...SO
BROKEN WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RFD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE EDGE OF THE MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY.
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD LOSE GUSTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN DROP DOWN FURTHER IN SPEED THIS EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND TEMPORARY AND DONE
BY 08Z.
* LOW-MEDIUM IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS SCATTERING.
* HIGH IN ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODIC -SHRA. CHANCE OF -DZ/FG. MVFR
CIGS LIKELY WITH IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY.
THURSDAY...VFR.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
144 AM CST
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY EASE THE WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN SO GUSTY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE SINCE YESTERDAY. WAVES WILL BE EVEN
SLOWER TO FALL...BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 5 FT IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE BY SUNSET.
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY EVENING TO NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STIFF EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL
ENCOMPASS THE LAKE BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO OCCLUDE DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE SYSTEM AND OVER THE
LAKE. THE SYSTEM DEPTH INDICATED BY COMPUTER MODELS AT THIS POINT
DOES NOT NECESSARILY SCREAM GALES...BUT THE PATTERN IS
CONCEPTUALLY ONE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME TEMPORARY GALES OR NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS DURING THAT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1149 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
Cold front finally cleared entire forecast area earlier this
evening. The post frontal precipitation has also been on the wane
with the departure of the front and much of the associated
forcing. Based on latest radar trends and mesoscale model runs,
expect that most of the measurable precipitation has ended, except
for areas along/south of the I-70 corridor. Still, a deep moist
layer is still conducive for the patchy post frontal drizzle that
is being reported. Far northern portions of the forecast area are
approaching 32 degrees, and although these temperatures shouldn`t
fall much further overnight, there is some threat of slick roads
due to the currently wet pavement and possibly some patchy
freezing drizzle. Aside from updates to PoP trends, only a few
minor tweaks are needed to the nighttime forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
The cold front draped across the eastern half of the country has
almost made it all the way through ILXs area this afternoon, and is
currently in the vicinity of I-70. Plenty of precipitation in the
region moving up from the SW. Precip is expected to continue,
particularly in the south and east through the overnight. The big
issues are the northern extent of the measurable precip, and the
timing of the cold air moving in behind it. HRRR and NAM both
trying to pull the precip further south after 06z, which should
remove the threat for FZRA later tonight. The forward progression
of the cooler air is also working against the rainfall as it is much
drier than the airmass over Central Illinois. The dry air is slowly
eroding the llvl RH and some of the weaker echos in the NW are only
seeing low clouds, and not reporting precip. Even in the NW where
the rain chances may recede after midnight, the low clouds and
potential for a misty night remain.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
Our area should be in between shortwaves on Saturday with a definite
trend south with the axis of heavier QPF from previous forecasts.
With our area in between shortwave trofs on Saturday, it appears the
better chances for rain will be across southeast Illinois, closer to
the frontal boundary and any associated weak surface wave that will
track northeast along it. Forecast soundings not very supporting of
any precip further north during the day so we will see a gradual
shift south with the higher POPs as the boundary gets a nudge to the
south by afternoon. Forecast soundings showing some drier air (900-
800 mb)advecting south into the region during the day as well but
expect quite a bit of cloudiness to hang around during the day with
the lingering POPs mainly across the southern third of the forecast
area by afternoon.
Low POPs will remain Saturday night into Sunday with the GFS showing
a weak lead shortwave coming out of the large upper low over the
southwest U.S. Sunday afternoon and evening with the main push from
the low to our southwest not getting into central Illinois until
Monday. That is when we will see likely POPs return across the
entire area with forecast soundings continuing to support rain
during the day, and then as we see cold advection settle in around
the backside of the upper low Monday night, we will see a mix or
changeover to light snow before the main forcing/lift ejects off to
the northeast on Tuesday. The main 500 mb trof axis will not shift
off to our east until Wednesday, so we will continue with at
least some low chance POPs Tuesday and Tuesday night associated
with the cold pool aloft. Finally, by Wednesday, the system should
be far enough to our northeast to have a dry forecast for the
entire area along with seasonably cool temperatures.
As the large upper low continues to drift away from the Midwest late
Wednesday into the end of the work week, upper level heights will
start to increase across the region, with more of a semi-zonal flow
pattern depicted on medium range models. This should result in a
rather quiet weather scene over the region with near normal
temperatures and little if any rain or snow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
IFR and/or low-end MVFR conditions and spotty showers/drizzle
will persist for the balance of the night. Drier air filtering
into the area on northerly winds will help to lift CIGS on
Saturday, with an improvement of VFR possible by Saturday evening.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1147 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE...
745 PM CST
GOING FORECAST TONIGHT LARGELY IN DECENT SHAPE. MAIN TWEAK WAS TO
LOWER HOURLY POPS IN SOUTHERN CWA AS OBS HAVE ONLY BEEN SHOWING
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS SO ITS PROBABLE
NOT ALL AREAS ARE SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP. KEPT DRIZZLE WORDING
GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA WITH LOW DEWPOINT SPREADS
AND CONTINUED BROAD LIFT FROM UPPER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. SOLID STRATUS DECK STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
CENTRAL WI...THEREFORE LOCKED IN FULL CLOUD COVER UNTIL ABOUT MID
DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP A FEW DEGREES
FROM CURRENT LEVELS BY DAYBREAK. TWEAKED A FEW LOCATIONS UP A
DEGREE OR SO CONSIDERING CLOUDS AND WINDS NOT GOING CALM. WILL BE
ABLE TO LET THE LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY GO AS PLANNED AT
9PM...WITH WAVES AT SOUTH BUOY DOWN TO 8 FEET AS OF THIS WRITING
AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT MARINE OB SITES.
ONLY OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS LAKE EFFECT PLUME INTO FAR NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN ON LAST SEVERAL HOURLY RUNS OF
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS HRRR AND HRRR-X. WITH UNIMPRESSIVE LAKE TO
850 MB DELTA T/S OF 9 OR 10 CELSIUS YIELDING LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
AND NOT MUCH INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT
OF LAKE PLUME. KEPT "SILENT" POPS AROUND 10% IN GRIDS.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
212 PM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON IS SLOWLY SLIDING
SOUTHEAST TOGETHER WITH AN AXIS OF PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FGEN ALIGNED
ALONG A COLD FRONT. FARTHER NORTH...A RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE IS
STARTING TO WORK INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS EVIDENCED BY FALLING
DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. AFTER THE AREA DRIES
OUT THIS EVENING...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND NEAR SEASONALLY NORMAL HIGHS UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE AND THE CORRESPONDING HEIGHT RISES ALOFT.
LENNING
&&
.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT LOCALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE IN
LIFTING THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. IT IS A LITTLE HARD TO BUY
INTO SUCH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM A CONSIDERABLY WRAPPED UP
FEATURE...BUT THE KICK APPEARS TO COME FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS APPARENT ON THE WV IMAGERY AND BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE IT ANALYZED WELL...SO WILL PLAN TO
FOLLOW THE IDEAS OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
MOST OF MONDAY...OR AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL
AREA SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LIFTING
OUT OF THE GULF AHEAD OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH STAYS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHIELD
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING THIS WOULD ALL
APPEAR TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE
OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES LIKELY
WILL CLIMB OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOW CENTERS BOTH LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WRAP COLDER AIR AROUND
TO THEIR SOUTH. LOW LEVELS DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVES AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
SNOW.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE AREA AGAIN SHOULD HAVE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER...AND CLEARING SKIES WOULD APPEAR TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS
NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* BRIEF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 08Z.
* NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH NOON.
* MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SLOW TO DRY OUT TODAY. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES AIDED BY A
STOUT INVERSION AND UNSTABLE AIR AND ADDED MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT CAUSING PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE/RAIN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS IS TRANSLATING EAST SO DPA
AND ORD...AND POSSIBLY MDW AND GYY...MAY EXPERIENCE THIS PRIOR TO
08Z.
THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY START TO ERODE LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY SEE AT
LEAST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON...SO
BROKEN WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RFD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE EDGE OF THE MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY.
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD LOSE GUSTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN DROP DOWN FURTHER IN SPEED THIS EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND TEMPORARY AND DONE
BY 08Z.
* LOW-MEDIUM IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS SCATTERING.
* HIGH IN ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODIC -SHRA. CHANCE OF -DZ/FG. MVFR
CIGS LIKELY WITH IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY.
THURSDAY...VFR.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
212 PM CST
BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LAKES FROM THE
WEST...AND A COLD FRONT DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...STRONG NORTH
WINDS OVER THE LAKE TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY...WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WILL BACK WESTERLY WHILE WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL VEER NORTHEASTERLY. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SLIDES NORTH OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND TURNS ALL WINDS TO THE
EAST. THE EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF APPROACHES THE AREA.
BY TUESDAY THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIFTING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
THEN ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF
THE LAKE REMAINING EAST OF THIS LOW...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM
EAST TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND ALL THE WAY AROUND TO NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
428 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY TAPER FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
THOUGH ANY BREAKS MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN SOUTH OF ROUTE 24.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 40...AND LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
RATHER BENIGN NEAR/SHORT TERM PD AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ENEWD THROUGH
OHIO VALLEY. FINAL VESTIGES OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
/ESPECIALLY WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR UVM OWING TO LOCAL PRESSURE
TENDENCY/DERIVATIVE ON I285-290K SURFACES EJECTING FROM ECNTL
ILLINOIS TO ALONG AND S OF ROUTE 24 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AM AND WILL
ACCOUNT WITH SEPARATE PREFIRST PD. WHILE SOME RAPL MIX ACROSS NERN
IL EARLIER THIS EVENING AND SOME UP AWOS ACRS SRN LWR MI...HAVE
MAINTAINED ALL LIQUID AS MAGNITUDE AND DEPTH OF MAX TW ALOFT GREATER
ACRS CWA PER RAP ANALYSIS...CERTAINLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE SNOW MIX PER
RELATIVE WARM CLOUD TOP TEMPS SUGGESTING LACK OF/OR AT LEAST
QUESTIONABLE ICE CRYSTAL NUCLEATION PER AMDAR AND RAP SOUNDINGS. ALL
BUT FAR SERN THIRD OF CWA DIFFICULT TO MEASURE ESPECIALLY BYND 15
UTC AS FEATURE WEAKENS/PUSHES EWD WHILE FOCUS SAGS SEWD AS
INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINS WITH DVM ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGE
STRENGTHENING/BUILDING EWD THROUGH CNTL LWR MI THROUGH THE DAY. HELD
LINE ON TEMPS GIVEN ANTICIPATED LAGGARD CLOUD COVER WITH AFTERNOON
PARTIAL CLEARING RELEGATED PRIMARILY NORTH OF ROUTE 24. POOR
INSOLATION OPPORTUNITY AMID PERSISTENT 925MB CAA/LOW SOLAR ZENITH
ANGLE/SHORT DURATION OF SHORTWAVE FLUX. SLIGHT LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS
FOR SUN AM AS WELL...INLINE WITH GUIDANCE...ACCENTUATING N/S
GRADIENT AS NORTHERN CWA MOST LIKELY AND MORE READILY TO DECOUPLE
PER PROXIMAL SOUTHERN RIDGE PERIPHERY...AS WELL AS REMOVE MARINE
LAYER BLEED IN AS OFFSHORE/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FAVORS A COLD
KBEH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
SUNDAY STILL LOOKING RELATIVELY PLEASANT...THOUGH SEASONABLY COOL.
SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL RIDGE/AVA WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION AND SUPPORT
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE/HIGH PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH BUT MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 1C
SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW THEN PINWHEELS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK NORTH WITH A DECENT SWATH OF 290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT LOW
LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH ARRIVAL OF MIDLEVEL CVA BULLSEYE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
EXACT TIMING/TRACK OF EJECTING LOW BUT KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/MODERATE RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT...A FEW TENTHS
AT BEST GIVEN RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT OF MEDIOCRE FORCING AND
MOISTURE. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LIFTING CYCLONE TO
BRING SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE HELP OF WARM LAKE MICHIGAN
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
TIMING/TRACK ISSUES LEAD TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED. MOST AREAS
WILL NOT SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARM SURFACE TEMPS BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES COULD SEE A QUICK DUSTING
WEDNESDAY MORNING IF BETTER PRECIP RATES ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE. KEPT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY BUT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SCT SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IF SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
CONTINUED ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER SUBCLOUD AIR INTO FAR NRN IN SHOULD
LIFT CIGS AT KSBN TO ABOVE FUELING/ALTERNATE CRITERIA WITHIN ABOUT
3 HRS. THEREAFTER...NO SIG AVIATION WX CONCERNS WITH ASSURED VFR
MET CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE VALID PD. AT KFWA CONTINUE
TO ANTICIPATE SLOWER IMPROVEMENT PER NORTHERN EXTENT OF RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN ALSO MAY PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN MAINTAINING IFR CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF NIGHT.
ATTEMPT TO BRING MODICUM OF IMPROVEMENT FOR MAJORITY OF DAYLIGHT
HOURS...THOUGH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS BLO 2KFT WILL PERSIST
INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1150 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
CHILLY...WET AND RAW CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK...USHERING IN MORE RAIN AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 920 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGESTING THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST BORDER ZONES JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MAIN REGION OF LIFT DIMINISHES...BUT WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME RAIN CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AS
OVERRUNNING LINGERS ALONG FRONT.
ALL IN ALL...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS MADE
ON THE UPDATE WILL BE FOR THE WINDS DUE TO FRONTAL POSITION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE SEEN A 7 TO 10
DEGREE DROP WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT 20Z...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY ALIGNED FROM JUST
NORTH OF KMIE W/SW THROUGH CENTRAL VERMILLION COUNTY. TEMPS WERE IN
THE 40S NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
THE RAIN AND TEMPERATURE SHIFT ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE NEAR
TERM AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD TREK
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS THE INDY METRO OVER THE
NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE METRO AREA TO THE SOUTH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY SURFACE
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE BOUNDARY
EVEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
STRETCHES OUT. WHILE THE JET WEAKENS...DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONALLY...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE REGION REMAINING NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER JET OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THIS
POINTS TO CONTINUED RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RATES SETTING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. 100 POPS REMAINS VALID FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO A RAW AND CHILLY N/NE FLOW WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
TEMPS...TOOK CURRENT OBS AND UTILIZED THE 18Z RAP AS A STARTING
POINT FOR HOURLY TEMP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS WITH THE
FRONT SLIDING SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT LIES AT 12Z
SATURDAY WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW COOL FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
GET. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LOCALES FROM BEDFORD THROUGH SEYMOUR AND
NORTH VERNON HANG UP CLOSER TO 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH
A PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH A BRIEF BREAK WEDGED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN CONTINUING
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED HERE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
DEEPER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER MOST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING WELL BEHIND THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING CLOUDY INTO SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DRAWING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION WILL BECOME ZONAL AND EVEN BRIEFLY RIDGE AS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SERVE TO SHIFT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BULK OF THE RAINFALL SOUTH
INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND GIVE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA A RESPITE FROM THE
WET PATTERN. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. CANNOT RULE
OUT A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY BUT MOST
SHOULD STAY DRY.
ELONGATED AND STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
BEGIN TO EJECT OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...LEADING TO A RESUMPTION OF THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
COMMENCE EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW...DEEPENING QUICKLY AS IT PULLS NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROMPT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT. TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PLAY AT THIS POINT BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE ECMWF AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE OP GFS FASTER IN BRINGING PRECIP BACK NORTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL REINTRODUCE LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER ALL
BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH HIGHER POPS MONDAY AS STEADIER
RAINS ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
TEMPS...A MOS BLEND OVERALL WORKED WELL FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR
LOWS AS MAV AND MET GUIDANCE LOOKED TOO AGGRESSIVE AND FAR TOO COLD
WITH LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO START THE LONG TERM...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD SEE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH IT.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY AND WARM BY A
COUPLE DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS LIKELY MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES WITH
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT MOST SITES THROUGHOUT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH...WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 14-15KT AT TIMES. A PERIODIC GUST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL BE TOO INFREQUENT TO MENTION.
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IFR OR WORSE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND/OR SOME DRIZZLE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1001 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 816 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE TRI-STATE
AREA CURRENTLY. THIS CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WILL CREATE A
THIN GLAZE OF ICE ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES. THE ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT AS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE LAST
NIGHT. NO ADVISORY FOR ICE ACCUMULATION IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SNOW LARGE
CLOSED LOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH EXTENSIVE
PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHEAST US. DRY LAYER (APPARENT ON
SATELLITE) IS STILL INFLUENCE OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
COMPLICATE PRECIP TYPE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...STAGNANT/COLD PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH
THESE PERIODS WITH POST FRONTAL/COLD AIR MASS LINGERING IN PLACE.
WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REMAIN IN
PLACE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES/TYPE IS THE
DEPTH/NATURE OF THE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER OUR CWA. A DRY LAYER IN
THE LOWEST 6000 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPED OVER NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND ADVECTED SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA PUTTING AN END TO
PRECIP. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF RETURN FLOW/UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE -3 TO -8C
LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS FLOW ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AS NORTHERLY
WINDS (INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE) SHOULD KEEP A PERSISTENT DRY
LAYER IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL OR AT THE VERY LEAST COVERAGE.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ON SHIFTING BL FLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A COMPLICATED PRECIP TYPE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN IF THE RETURN FLOW DOESN`T OCCUR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS END
UP OVERDONE. AFTER COLLABORATION...DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF
ON ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND I PLAN ON HANDLING THE
POTENTIAL WITH SPS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN UTAH INTO SOUTHWEST
WYOMING SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PLAN TO GO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT SINCE FORCING AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DECREASING AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SUNDAY. FORCING
INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND GOES INTO THE NIGHT. PLAN TO GO
WITH HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING AS MID LEVELS
SATURATE AND ICE FORMS IN THE COLUMN. OVERNIGHT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STARTS DECREASING AGAIN SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE LIGHT SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND THE MID 30S MONDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS
FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS LACKING
WITH THIS FEATURE SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE FA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW EXITS AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. CONSEQUENTLY,
POPS WILL BE NIL.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS MODERATING TO
THE LOWER 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MODERATING TO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 959 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL FALL FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH CEILINGS CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL/CLT
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1152 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NRN BRANCH NW FLOW
ALF PENETRATING INTO THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF PERSISTENT WRN TROF/SE
RDG SRN BRANCH FLOW REGIME DOMINATING THE CONUS. NW FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE NCNTRL PLAINS IS ADVECTING COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA...WITH UPSTREAM 12Z H85 TEMPS -13C AT INL AND -14C AT
YPL. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LK EFFECT CLD COVER OVER THE CWA...BUT
LO SUBSIDENCE INVRN...WITH INVRN BASE AT 12Z NEAR H9-925 AT INL AND
YPL...HAS GREATLY LIMITED THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE LES
IMPACTING AREAS NEAR LK SUP. THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE INCOMING
AIRMASS...WITH 12Z PWAT ABOUT 0.08 INCH AT BOTH INL/YPL /ABOUT 35
PCT OF NORMAL/...HAS ALSO HAD A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON PCPN. LO TEMPS
THIS MRNG WERE QUITE FRIGID AND AS LO AS -5 TO -10F UNDER SFC RDG
AXIS STRETCHING FM THE HI CENTER IN THE DAKOTAS INTO NW ONTARIO.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LO CLDS TRENDS/TEMPS AS DRY
HI PRES RDG IS FCST SLIDE SLOWLY SE THRU THE UPR LKS THRU SAT.
TNGT...AS SFC RDG AXIS/SHARP ACYC LLVL FLOW UNDER AREA OF DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE/DRY AIR SETTLES ACRS
UPR MI...EXPECT LINGERING LK CLDS TO CLR. WITH PWATS IN THE 0.1 TO
0.2 INCH RANGE/LIGHT WINDS/VERY LO TEMPS OBSVD UPSTREAM THIS MRNG...
WL FAVOR THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FCST...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH SN COVER. ARRIVAL OF SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STEADY W WINDS/
PERHAPS MORE PERSISTENT LK CLDS OVER THE KEWEENAW ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE RDG AXIS PASSING TO THE S WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP THERE.
SAT...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/STEADY W WINDS UNDER THE SHARPER PRES
GRADIENT/STEADY W FLOW TO THE N OF HI PRES RDG AXIS FCST TO STRETCH
FM MN ACRS WI INTO NRN LOWER MI ARE FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS INTO THE
0C TO -2C RANGE BY 00Z SUN. UNDER LINGERING AXIS OF DRY AIR...EXPECT
MOSUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH LOWERING SUN ANGLE WL LIMIT DEGREE OF DIURNAL
HEATING...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LO/MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP THE ARCTIC AIR
TRAPPED OVER FAR NORTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND LOOKING AT
THE CFSV2 AND LONG RANGE ECMWF ENSEMBLES...THAT PATTERN LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF DECEMBER.
JUMPING BACK TO THE SHORTER TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH AND A
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT WILL LEAVE THE AREA THE AREA WITH NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD.
THERE IS ONE THING TO MENTION. A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY VEER THE BL WINDS AROUND TO A
LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR A TIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TURN TO THE NORTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 920MB MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S MODEL RUNS...THE CLOUD DEPTH IS SHALLOWER
AND VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. WILL FOLLOW THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE
OF THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD COVER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BASED OFF THE INDICATED LOW CLOUDS ON THE NAM/GFS
FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING...WOULD
EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO PUSH BACK OUT OF THE AREA. WITH AS LOW AS THE
CLOUDS ARE INDICATED IN MODELS TODAY...MAY NEED TO BE CONCERNED
ABOUT REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL FOR SUNDAY
MORNING.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LOW. THAT SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED LOWER ON QPF
VALUES SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN A QUARTER AND
HALF AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER TREND IN THE MODELS IS
FOR GENERALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
INCREASES THE RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. BUT
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.P.. EXPECT THE
MAIN PUSH OF PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THEN EXPECT JUST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THE REST OF THE WAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THE FAR WEST COULD SEE SOME MODERATE SNOW AS
THE AREA OF FORCING FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND IS FOCUSED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE
WESTERN U.P.. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...DON/T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW...AS THE MID LEVELS
QUICKLY DRY OUT DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH COLDER THAN -5C. THAT UPPER RIDGE
WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KCMX WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX
EARLY THIS PERIOD. KIWD AND KSAW WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
AS A HI PRES RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...A STRENGTHENING WSW WIND UP TO 25-30
KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
AND LO PRES CROSSING NRN ONTARIO. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES
TYPICALLY ACCENTUATE THIS FLOW. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL DIMINISH
STEADILY LATER ON SAT AND VEER TO THE NE THRU SUN AS A WEAK LO PRES
TROF/SLACKER GRADIENT DIP INTO THE UPPER LAKES AND HI PRES BUILDS
INTO NW ONTARIO. ONCE THE HI SHIFTS TO THE E...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS
ON MON. A STRONGER E WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL THEN DEVELOP ON TUE AS A
DEEP LO PRES MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NNW ON WED FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS LO TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1142 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 925 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015
Large area of rain stretching from the ARKLATEX into southern IL
continues to drift south. A quick glance at 00z NAM as well as
hi-res HRRR suggest that this southward shift will persist
overnight, with the heaviest rain threat remaining confined to
areas south of I44 in MO and s of I70 in IL, draped along strong
low level baroclinic zone north of slow moving cold front. Flood
Watch for central MO was cancelled earlier this evening, and based
on above trends have also cancelled the Flood Watch over the STL
Metro. Although the heavy rain threat should be confined to the
southern third of the CWA, I have remained fairly generous with
lower PoPs further north as area is RRQ of jet core over the Great
Lakes. Can`t totally rule out a threat of frozen precip in our far
NW counties late tonight, but very much uncertain about how
much...if any...precip will be able to develop in this area of
sub-freezing temps.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015
A strong wound-up storm system over the Great Basin region of the
western CONUS is expected to move little during this period,
maintaining an active southwest flow aloft over our region, with
disturbances training along. This will all intersect a pretty moist
airmass in place still over our region and result in high probs for
precipitation, especially for areas near and south of the I-70
corridor.
First, will keep the FFA going as-is. Despite rain tapering off in
central and now east-central MO, the rain is cycling to an extent
and should try to fill back in further north into central MO this
evening and overnight. Also, flooding effects are typically
delayed from when the rainfall occurs and so the flood threat does
not end right when the rainfall tapers. Will let the evening and
overnight shifts re-evaluate and cancel early as needed once the
effects on the area are better realized.
Second, surface temps will once again approach the freezing mark
across parts of northeast MO and west-central IL and with current
and expected vertical temp profiles, would be supportive of a brief
period of light freezing rain or sleet. Fortunately, much of the
threat for measurable pcpn will be south of this area and any
amounts, should they occur, should be very light. PoPs here are
below 50%.
Preferred the higher end of MOS temps for mins tonight and lower end
of MOS for maxes Saturday with extensive cloud cover in place.
TES
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015
(Sunday - Monday)
As the wound-up western CONUS storm begins to stir eastward, the
pattern over us remains status quo, with an active southwest flow
aloft and additional disturbances tracking thru, overrunning
moisture well to the north of the old surface boundary.
This should result in another widespread rain event, but QPF will be
light, with around a tenth of an inch forecast and should have
minimal to no impact on flooding concerns.
Good agrement then continues on what to do with the storm system
center, bringing it out into the Plains by Monday and track it to our
north Monday night. During this process, a strong disturbance will
rotate around the southern periphery and impact our area Monday. QPF
looks low, with a tenth of an inch or less forecast for this event,
but probs remain on the high side, with likely PoPs forecast.
Temps will be at or a tad below average for daytime maxes, but remain
above average for nighttime mins--all because of the extensive cloud
cover that continues to be forecast.
(Tuesday - Next Friday)
Good model agreement begins to go away by late Wednesday, with a
pair of dry days expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
GFS is showing a stronger storm system trying to take shape on
Thursday than the EC, but this system at first glance looks to be
moisture starved and have kept PoPs on the dry side for now.
Consensus then re-achieved for Friday with building heights and
ridging overhead.
With cold air forecast to continue to be locked up well north, temps
will begin this period around average but trend warmer by the end of
the week with the building heights aloft and southerly flow at the
surface.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015
IFR flight conditions will continue to prevail across the area
into Saturday morning. Latest guidance is more pessimistic about
the ceilings rising on Saturday, and it may take until late
morning across northeast MO and west central IL to go MVFR. IFR
may stick around for most of the day further south, with little
chance for improving to MVFR in southeast MO and southern IL.
Lingering light rain and drizzle will continue to keep lowered
visibility across much of the area along and south of the I-70
corridor through at least mid morning...longer further south.
Ceilings will likely improve later in the afternoon and into the
evening, but the improvement may be short lived as stratus tends
to lower during the nighttime hours.
Specifics for KSTL:
IFR ceilings will continue to prevail at Lambert at least through
Saturday morning. Lingering light rain/drizzle will also continue
to lower the visibility to 3-5SM...probably at least until 12-15Z.
Latest guidance is more pessimistic about the ceilings rising on
Saturday...and there looks to be little if any probability that
ceilings will rise above 1000 FT before 20Z, and ceilings
probably won`t rise above 2000 FT through the night into Sunday
morning. In fact, clouds may drop back below 1000 FT overnight
Saturday night as stratus tends to lower during the nighttime
hours.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Randolph IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.AVIATION...
PER TRENDS SO FAR TONIGHT/LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL RUNS STARTING TO
GET A BIT MORE CONFIDENT WITH IDEA OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE 59
CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. HAVE TRENDED TAFS ACCORDINGLY BUT
KEEPING WITH NO FROPA FOR LBX/GLS SITES UNTIL LATE MORN/EARLY AFTN
OR SO. LOW CIGS (GENERALLY IFR) PROGGED FOR THE POST FRONTAL TIME-
FRAME ALONG WITH LIGHT PCPN GIVEN THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS AND THE
PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT. ALL IN ALL A RATHER MESSY FCST WITH THIS
PATTERN. 41
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/
REFINED TIMING OF FRONT BASED ON LATEST HRRR RUNS...JUST A TAD
FASTER THAN EARLIER THIS EVENING. IN FACT ALREADY SEEING COLDER
AIR FILTERING INTO WESTERN SUBURBS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER PAST
HOUR AT BROOKSHIRE AND NEAR KATY. SOUTHWARD PUSH SLOWER HOWEVER
NORTH OF TOWN...SO DEPENDING WHERE YOU ARE AROUND TOWN THE FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH GREATER HOUSTON OVERNIGHT...OCCURING NOW IN SOME
WESTERN SUBURBS...BUT MORE TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR SE SECTIONS. THE
FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH SLOWLY TO COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTN.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BUT THIS IS THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR
NOW. COULD BE SOME AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S...AND WATER TEMPERATURE AT
BAY ENTRANCE IS 67. 46
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 45 49 46 50 48 / 70 60 60 60 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 53 56 55 67 53 / 40 50 40 40 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 73 64 71 60 / 20 20 20 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1107 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.AVIATION...
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN FLYING CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL GENERALLY CONTROL CATEGORY. CIGS AND VIS WILL
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR DEPENDING ON RAIN SHOWERS. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NORTH AT 1O TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATE MORNING
SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO MAX POPS AT 100 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
FROM BEXAR AND MEDINA COUNTIES...UP THROUGH LLANO COUNTY. THIS
AREA ON RADAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH THE NORTHWARD TREND
OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER. KEPT THE ISOLATED THUNDER IN FOR THE
NEXT 3 HOURS...BUT REMOVED AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE SEEN ONLY 1 OR
2 STRIKES OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS AND WITH THE SURFACE GETTING
COLDER AND NO EVIDENCE OF STRONG LIFT COMING IN FROM THE
WEST...FEEL THAT THE RISK OF THUNDER IS DROPPING QUICKLY. HAVE
ALSO REDUCED POP OUT WEST TO 50 PERCENT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
AND LACK OF ENHANCEMENT ON IR SATELLITE. ALL THE MESO MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED RAIN AREAS OVERNIGHT WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZATION. FEEL THAT OUR CURRENT QPF LOOKS
GOOD WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OVERNIGHT IN SOME SPOTS.
FRONT IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF OUR CWA WITH IT BEING OVER SOUTHERN
ATASCOSA COUNTY AND OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR COASTAL
COUNTIES. AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL GET
NEAR STEADY TEMPS OVERNIGHT. AREAS IN THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY
HAVE SEEN SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ALREADY BUT ALL MODELS KEEP THE
AREA ABOVE FREEZING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ICE AT THIS TIME...JUST A
COLD RAIN. WITH ALL THE METARS SHOWING NEAR SATURATION AND RAIN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THERE IS NOT MUCH ROOM FOR WET BULBING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF 3 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
LEXINGTON TO AUSTIN TO DEL RIO. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH AND
EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE AT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND THEN CLEAR THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COMING IN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS FOR OUR AREA
FOR TONIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS SHOWING
SOME 2 INCH IN 6 HOUR RAIN TOTALS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEHIND
THE FRONT. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF AMOUNTS THIS HIGH FOR THIS
AREA...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED
THE PW VALUES TOO HIGH WITH 2 INCH VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS ONLY SHOWS 1.8
INCHES...WHICH IS STILL ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
DO THINK RAIN WILL FALL FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EVEN IF 2 INCHES
FALL OVER 6 HOURS...RAIN RATES SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH PER
HOUR AS THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THE COLD SECTOR
AND THE BEST WARM-RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE SHUT DOWN.
CONTINUE TO THINK THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF MAY ACTUALLY FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES....BETWEEN DEL RIO AND SAN ANTONIO.
THE VARIOUS WRF MODELS AND NOW THE HRRR CONTINUE TO PROG A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP NEAR DEL RIO...THEN TRACK TO THE ESE IN
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE WOULD LIKELY HELP LOCALLY ENHANCE
THE LIFT TO SUPPORT BETTER PRECIPITATION RATES. THE LOW WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST IN THE AREA AS
SOME OF THE AIR BECOMES WRAPPED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW ALSO
ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP RATES. IN ADDITION TO THE
EXPECTED SURFACE TROUGH...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE
POINTING TO THIS REGION AS WELL FOR THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING MORE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES VERSUS THE EASTERN AND
THIS IS LIKELY THE REASON. OUR STORM TOTAL PRECIP GRAPHIC FOR THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AN AXIS
FROM ZAVALA COUNTY UP INTO MEDINA/UVALDE AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AM EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR THIS AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS REACHING 4+.
WHILE THERE ARE ABNORMALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AND A FRONT...THERE ARE SEVERAL INGREDIENTS LACKING FOR
A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR OUR AREA. THE FIRST IS DEEP
FORCING FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER UTAH AND A RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE BEST SHEAR AXIS /LIFT/ REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
MEANS OUR MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. SECOND...OUR REGION IS ALSO UNDERNEATH THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WHICH ALSO ISNT FAVORABLE FOR
DEEP CONVECTION. THIRD...WE DO HAVE A COLD FRONT IN PLACE BUT
THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO STALL AND THUS WILL NOT SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. LASTLY...THE 850 FRONT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...DETACHED FROM THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
WILL NOT ENHANCE FRONTAL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TO
SUMMARIZE...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN
LOCALIZED PLACES...BUT WE ARE LACKING MECHANISMS FOR INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES OUT OF THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S/40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL NOT WARM MUCH FROM THOSE VALUES. OVERRUNNING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS TOMORROW AS THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT FROM TODAY. THE MID-LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWERING RAIN AMOUNTS EVEN
FURTHER. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF AREA...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHEAR AXIS. LOWS
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...BUT NOT BY
MUCH AS NORTH WINDS REMAIN AT THE SURFACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALSO PERSIST AND EXPECT LOW POPS TO CONTINUE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS. UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY MONDAY
WHICH SHOULD SHIFT THE RAIN CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AND THESE POPS WILL ONLY BE 20 PERCENT.
THE STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST
AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTH FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES TO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN OPEN TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SET UP OVER THE AREA
AND WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE CURRENT EVENT AND MORE TYPICAL FOR
THE WINTER SEASON. THE FORECAST WILL DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 44 46 43 49 45 / 90 80 70 60 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 43 47 44 49 44 / 90 80 70 60 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 45 47 44 51 45 / 90 80 70 60 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 41 44 40 47 42 / 100 80 70 70 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 41 47 44 57 45 / 80 60 50 30 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 40 44 41 48 42 / 90 80 70 70 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 43 48 44 53 46 / 100 80 70 50 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 44 46 44 50 45 / 90 80 70 60 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 50 44 51 48 / 80 70 60 60 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 47 48 45 51 47 / 100 80 70 60 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 49 50 46 53 48 / 100 80 70 50 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
REFINED TIMING OF FRONT BASED ON LATEST HRRR RUNS...JUST A TAD
FASTER THAN EARLIER THIS EVENING. IN FACT ALREADY SEEING COLDER
AIR FILTERING INTO WESTERN SUBURBS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER PAST HOUR
AT BROOKSHIRE AND NEAR KATY. SOUTHWARD PUSH SLOWER HOWEVER NORTH
OF TOWN...SO DEPENDING WHERE YOU ARE AROUND TOWN THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH GREATER HOUSTON OVERNIGHT...OCCURING NOW IN SOME
WESTERN SUBURBS...BUT MORE TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR SE SECTIONS. THE
FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH SLOWLY TO COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTN.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BUT THIS IS THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR
NOW. COULD BE SOME AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S...AND WATER TEMPERATURE AT
BAY ENTRANCE IS 67. 46
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TEMPERATURE AT CALDWELL DROPPED FROM 73 TO 55 DEGREES AFTER THE FRONT
MOVED THROUGH. CURRENT READINGS WELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY (NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY AREA) ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHILE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 CAN BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ALSO SEEING A GENERAL
INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY UP IN OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL HAVE
THE FRONT MAKING PROGRESS FURTHER INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE REMAINING
AFTERNOON...EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS THE AREA
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES UP NORTH AND THE LOWER NUMBERS IN/AROUND
THE GALVESTON BAY AREA WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. IF THIS HAPPENS...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN/AROUND
THAT AREA COULD STAY IN THE 70S. MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON BOTH TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN CHANCES IS ON THE LOW SIDE. PERIODS OF RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA WITH THE FRONT FINALLY OFF THE COAST...AND IT LOOKS LIKE CLEARING
(AND STILL COOL TEMPERATURES) CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THIS MESSY SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. 42
MARINE...
STILL HAVE A 7FT/10SEC SWELL ROLLING INTO THE UPPER TX COASTAL
WATERS. WILL PROBABLY EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVSY IN THE 20-60NM
WATERS THRU THE EVNG AND HOPEFULLY NEXT SHIFT CAN BEGIN THE
DOWNGRADES AS SEAS START SLOWLY SUBSIDING.
ALSO EXPECTING SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND/OR OVERWASH FROM WAVE
RUN UP ON HIGHWAY 87/124 ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA THIS EVENING
AROUND HIGH TIDE (6PM - OVERALL THREAT PERIOD 3-10PM). WATER LEVELS
RUNNING ABOUT 1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL. THEY`LL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THRU THE WEEKEND BUT MODERATE DOWN TO AROUND +1FT AS WINDS/SEAS
DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE UPPER COAST LATER TONIGHT
BUT PROBABLY STALL AND/OR MEANDER JUST INLAND FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS INITIAL WIND SHIFT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF
OCCURRING IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF FREEPORT LATE SAT...BUT
OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE AS TO IF THE GLS AREA EVEN SEES ONE THIS
WEEKEND IS QUITE LOW AS THERE ARE VARIOUS & INCONSISTENT MODEL
SOLNS. THERE WILL BE A STRONGER SOUTHWARD PUSH ARRIVING MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE MORNING & HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE W/ THAT ONE NUDGING THE
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. MAY NEED SCA`S BY MIDWEEK. 47
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/
AVIATION...
MIXED BAG OF MVFR & VFR CIGS OUT THERE TODAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MID AFTN HOURS...BUT DO EXPECT CIGS
TO FALL BACK CLOSER TO 1000FT NEAR CLL 4-6PM AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP NEARS THE SITE. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO MAKE
VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TO AROUND THE HWY 59 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT THEN HANG UP IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE DAY SAT. DRIZZLY/-RA WX AND IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE THE
RULE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY SAT. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 45 49 46 50 48 / 70 60 60 60 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 53 56 55 67 53 / 40 50 40 40 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 73 64 71 60 / 20 20 20 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
745 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME VERY PATCHY FOG IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE
DELMARVA REGIONS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE VERY PATCHY NATURE, THE FOG WILL
LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING THE 6:30 AM UPDATE DID
REDUCE CLOUD COVER SOME ACROSS NJ AND DE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE 40`S TO LOW
50`S TODAY.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT
BUT ENOUGH LIFT LOOKS PRESENT FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE
LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS AND NW NJ IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HRRR AND
RAP NOT RULING OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THIS MORNING. SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 6:30 AM UPDATE ON POPS BUT
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON NW
OF PHL INCREASING IN COVERAGE TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL TIMING, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN WHAT WAS MODELED 24 HOURS AGO. WITH THE FRONT NOT ARRIVING
TILL THE AFTERNOON, THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY WITH
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NOONTIME ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
NORTHERN NJ, ONLY NEAR 50 THEN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40`S. MORE
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WITH SOME WAA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT FOR THE PHILADELPHIA AREA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60`S, LIKELY A HAIR
ABOVE MET/MAV GUIDANCE AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TAKING
WITH IT THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL TO THE PHILADELPHIA
METRO AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. HOWEVER, QPF THROUGHOUT THE NEAR AND
SHORT TERM PERIODS LOOKS RATHER MEAGER UNDER 1/4TH OF AN INCH ON
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS, THE SREF AND WPC GUIDANCE. COLDER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO FUNNEL IN BEHIND THE FRONT, PERHAPS A HAIR SLOWER/WARMER
THAN INDICATED WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO
SLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RIGHT NOW ANY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEPART
BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTH AND WEST. EVEN IF THAT WERE NOT THE CASE, TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WILL BE SLOWER AT 925 AND 850 MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND NOT SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BEST LIFT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF US INTO SRN VA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM ERN CANADA. ACCORDINGLY, ANY LEFTOVER
ANAFRONTAL RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AND LIKELY
SHIFT SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE ON SUNDAY. NLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL DRAW COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 40S IN NE PA/NW NJ AND LM50S ELSEWHERE, WHICH IS ACTUALLY
RIGHT AT CLIMO FOR THE END OF NOV.
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE HIGH BUILDS,
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY IN SRN DE AND ADJACENT EASTERN MD. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR THESE FAR SRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRY FOR
MONDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
COOL.
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE AN
OVERRUNNING SETUP ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP RETURNING TO
THE AREA EITHER LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD US. IF THE PRECIP COMES IN BEFORE SUNRISE,
THEN MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOWILL BE AWAY FROM MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KMIV. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KMIV UNTIL 12Z OR SO.R LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY AT THE ONSET IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF I- 80 (WHERE THE RETREATING
COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS TYPICALLY LAST TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO
THE OROGRAPHY). WILL KEEP THIS THREAT OUT OF THE HWO THIS FAR OUT
SINCE IT SEEMS LIKE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO BUT STILL
BEARS WATCHING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THRU THE AREA, WHICH IS WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS
AND GEM AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE ECMWF.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE MIDWEEK COLD
FROPA. ASIDE FROM MAYBE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY IN THE
POCONOS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT (WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THRU),
EXPECT A DRY ENDING TO THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOCALIZED FOG
HAS BEEN NEAR KMIV THE LAST FEW HOURS AND MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS. LOCAL TOOLS CONTINUE INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR PATCHY FOG WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO FAVOR VFR TODAY WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING GRADUALLY. WE HAVE INDICATED A TRANSITION TO MVFR
CEILINGS AT KRDG AND KABE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS TIMING IS A FEW HOURS LATER FOR
KPHL, KTTN AND TAF SITES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EVEN POSSIBLE FROM MID EVENING ON TONIGHT, MORE UNCERTAINTY ATTM
TO INCLUDE WITH THE 12Z TAFS. THINKING SOME OF THE INDICATORS
LOOKED AT MAY A BIT TO AGGRESSIVE LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THEN MORE NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS MAY YIELD MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN
SRN TERMINALS (ILG-MIV-ACY) INITIALLY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS TO VFR ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE DAY. N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY VFR W/ CLEARING SKIES.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MARINE STRATUS MOVING INLAND. MIV AND ACY WOULD BE MOST VULNERABLE
OF THE TAF SITES TO MVFR CIGS IN THIS SETUP. RAIN MAY ALSO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN
LIKELY. LIGHT ELY WINDS BECOME SELY LATE.
WEDNESDAY...ATTM, THE RAIN MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE MORNING.
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS
INDICATING IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER
SLOWER SOLUTIONS DELAY THE IMPROVEMENT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL OCCUR WITH A COLD FROPA. THE FROPA WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WIND SHIFT FROM SLY TO WLY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER SEAS WE REMAIN AROUND FIVE FEET THROUGH TODAY BEFORE
FALLING TO AROUND FOUR FEET TONIGHT. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH 23Z
FOR THE HIGH SEAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SEAS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY DELAYED FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET TONIGHT WITH THE
PERSISTENT ESE SWELL. FOR NOW THOUGH, BOTH WAVEWATCH AND NWPS HAVE
SEAS FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET BY THIS EVENING, SO WILL NOT EXTEND
THE SCA.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING NELY WINDS 15-20 KT
WILL ACCOMPANY A PRESSURE SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH OF A GUST
POTENTIAL IN THIS SETUP SO GETTING 25 KT GUSTS ARE QUESTIONABLE.
HOWEVER, SEAS IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 4-7
FT, SO A SCA WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT, THEN SHARPLY
TURN WLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX RADAR IS BACK IN SERVICE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
617 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME VERY PATCHY FOG IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE
DELMARVA REGIONS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE VERY PATCHY NATURE, THE FOG WILL
LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING THE 6:30 AM UPDATE DID
REDUCE CLOUD COVER SOME ACROSS NJ AND DE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE 40`S TO LOW
50`S TODAY.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT
BUT ENOUGH LIFT LOOKS PRESENT FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE
LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS AND NW NJ IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HRRR AND
RAP NOT RULING OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THIS MORNING. SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 6:30 AM UPDATE ON POPS BUT
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON NW
OF PHL INCREASING IN COVERAGE TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL TIMING, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN WHAT WAS MODELED 24 HOURS AGO. WITH THE FRONT NOT ARRIVING
TILL THE AFTERNOON, THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY WITH
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NOONTIME ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
NORTHERN NJ, ONLY NEAR 50 THEN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40`S. MORE
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WITH SOME WAA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT FOR THE PHILADELPHIA AREA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60`S, LIKELY A HAIR
ABOVE MET/MAV GUIDANCE AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TAKING
WITH IT THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL TO THE PHILADELPHIA
METRO AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. HOWEVER, QPF THROUGHOUT THE NEAR AND
SHORT TERM PERIODS LOOKS RATHER MEAGER UNDER 1/4TH OF AN INCH ON
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS, THE SREF AND WPC GUIDANCE. COLDER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO FUNNEL IN BEHIND THE FRONT, PERHAPS A HAIR SLOWER/WARMER
THAN INDICATED WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO
SLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RIGHT NOW ANY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEPART
BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTH AND WEST. EVEN IF THAT WERE NOT THE CASE, TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WILL BE SLOWER AT 925 AND 850 MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND NOT SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BEST LIFT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF US INTO SRN VA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM ERN CANADA. ACCORDINGLY, ANY LEFTOVER
ANAFRONTAL RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AND LIKELY
SHIFT SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE ON SUNDAY. NLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL DRAW COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 40S IN NE PA/NW NJ AND LM50S ELSEWHERE, WHICH IS ACTUALLY
RIGHT AT CLIMO FOR THE END OF NOV.
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE HIGH BUILDS,
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY IN SRN DE AND ADJACENT EASTERN MD. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR THESE FAR SRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRY FOR
MONDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
COOL.
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE AN
OVERRUNNING SETUP ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP RETURNING TO
THE AREA EITHER LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD US. IF THE PRECIP COMES IN BEFORE SUNRISE,
THEN MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOWILL BE AWAY FROM MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KMIV. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KMIV UNTIL 12Z OR SO.R LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY AT THE ONSET IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF I- 80 (WHERE THE RETREATING
COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS TYPICALLY LAST TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO
THE OROGRAPHY). WILL KEEP THIS THREAT OUT OF THE HWO THIS FAR OUT
SINCE IT SEEMS LIKE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO BUT STILL
BEARS WATCHING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THRU THE AREA, WHICH IS WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS
AND GEM AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE ECMWF.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE MIDWEEK COLD
FROPA. ASIDE FROM MAYBE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY IN THE
POCONOS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT (WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THRU),
EXPECT A DRY ENDING TO THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOCALIZED FOG
HAS BEEN NEAR KMIV THE LAST FEW HOURS AND MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS. LOCAL TOOLS CONTINUE INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR PATCHY FOG WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO FAVOR VFR TODAY WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING GRADUALLY. WE HAVE INDICATED A TRANSITION TO MVFR
CEILINGS AT KRDG AND KABE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS TIMING IS A FEW HOURS LATER FOR
KPHL, KTTN AND TAF SITES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EVEN POSSIBLE FROM MID EVENING ON TONIGHT, MORE UNCERTAINTY ATTM
TO INCLUDE WITH THE 12Z TAFS. THINKING SOME OF THE INDICATORS
LOOKED AT MAY A BIT TO AGGRESSIVE LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THEN MORE NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS MAY YIELD MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN
SRN TERMINALS (ILG-MIV-ACY) INITIALLY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS TO VFR ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE DAY. N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY VFR W/ CLEARING SKIES.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MARINE STRATUS MOVING INLAND. MIV AND ACY WOULD BE MOST VULNERABLE
OF THE TAF SITES TO MVFR CIGS IN THIS SETUP. RAIN MAY ALSO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN
LIKELY. LIGHT ELY WINDS BECOME SELY LATE.
WEDNESDAY...ATTM, THE RAIN MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE MORNING.
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS
INDICATING IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER
SLOWER SOLUTIONS DELAY THE IMPROVEMENT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL OCCUR WITH A COLD FROPA. THE FROPA WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WIND SHIFT FROM SLY TO WLY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER SEAS WE REMAIN AROUND FIVE FEET THROUGH TODAY BEFORE
FALLING TO AROUND FOUR FEET TONIGHT. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH 23Z
FOR THE HIGH SEAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SEAS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY DELAYED FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET TONIGHT WITH THE
PERSISTENT ESE SWELL. FOR NOW THOUGH, BOTH WAVEWATCH AND NWPS HAVE
SEAS FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET BY THIS EVENING, SO WILL NOT EXTEND
THE SCA.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING NELY WINDS 15-20 KT
WILL ACCOMPANY A PRESSURE SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH OF A GUST
POTENTIAL IN THIS SETUP SO GETTING 25 KT GUSTS ARE QUESTIONABLE.
HOWEVER, SEAS IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 4-7
FT, SO A SCA WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT, THEN SHARPLY
TURN WLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX RADAR IS CURRENTLY INOPERABLE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
ABOUT THE OUTAGE. THE RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
EQUIPMENT...GAINES/KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
INDIANA WILL LIE BETWEEN A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH TODAY. AS THE WEEKEND GOES ON...THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND TAKE CONTROL OF HOOSIER WEATHER.
FROM MONDAY INTO A WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS INDIANA WHILE
MOVING NORTH AND THEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WAS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF KSDF WITH RAIN PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE ENTIRE AREA SEEING THE CHILLY N/NE FLOW. 15Z TEMPS RANGED FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS ONCE AGAIN ON TEMPERATURES
AND FINE TUNING POPS AS RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST.
HRRR/WRF GUIDANCE AGAIN HAS A NICE HANDLE ON PRECIP COVERAGE WITH
PRECIP ENDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. WHERE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT A SHALLOW SUBFREEZING LAYER DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 1-2KFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY ENABLE GRAUPEL TO PERIODICALLY MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN AS
IT ENDS. WILL NOT INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AND EXPECTED LOCALIZED COVERAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE LITTLE IF NOT FALL A COUPLE DEGREES LATER
TODAY. HAVE TRENDED HOURLY TEMPS CLOSER TO LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAW
SURFACE TEMPS OFF THE RAP FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH MOST AREAS
HOVERING BETWEEN THE UPPER 30S AND MID 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
STEADY N/NE WINDS WILL ADD TO THE RAW DAMP FEELING PRESENT.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
THE IMMEDIATE PROBLEM IS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT RAIN RETREATING SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT...BUT THE GFS BRINGS SOME BACK LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE GFS COULD BE RIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT IS A POTENTIAL AREA FOR
INERTIAL INSTABILITY. THE MODEL HAS NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
VORTICITY WHICH WOULD REFLECT THIS AT 18Z TOMORROW. THE LAST TIME
SOMETHING SIMILAR HAPPENED THE GFS WAS CORRECT. FOR THAT REASON THE
MAV POPS THAT RELY ON IT WILL BE USED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
AFTER SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW PROGRESSIVELY GREATER DIFFERENCES
DEVELOPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. CONSENSUS WILL BE USED TO
GRAPPLE WITH THIS.
SKIES ARE APT TO STAY CLOUDY THANKS TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL STUFF
COMING OUT OF THE TROUGH ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES EXCEPT
FOR THE MAV COLDER AT SOME PLACES SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON WHATS BEEN
OCCURRING AROUND THE FRONT IT LOOKS BETTER THEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON
TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE LOW CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW PASSES OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
BY THAT POINT...AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/15Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 925 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS TO THE SOUTH OF TAF SITES.
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. AS RAIN COMES TO AN END FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE SAT 19Z-SUN 01Z TIME FRAME...MVFR IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER...SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AT ALL TAF SITES BY SUN
10Z. KLAF CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLIER THOUGH SINCE IT/S
FARTHEST FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 8 TO 12 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
655 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY TAPER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER
SOUTHEAST OF ROUTE 24 THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN
TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY
BREAKS MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 40...AND LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
RATHER BENIGN NEAR/SHORT TERM PD AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ENEWD THROUGH
OHIO VALLEY. FINAL VESTIGES OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
/ESPECIALLY WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR UVM OWING TO LOCAL PRESSURE
TENDENCY/DERIVATIVE ON I285-290K SURFACES EJECTING FROM ECNTL
ILLINOIS TO ALONG AND S OF ROUTE 24 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AM AND WILL
ACCOUNT WITH SEPARATE PREFIRST PD. WHILE SOME RAPL MIX ACROSS NERN
IL EARLIER THIS EVENING AND SOME UP AWOS ACRS SRN LWR MI...HAVE
MAINTAINED ALL LIQUID AS MAGNITUDE AND DEPTH OF MAX TW ALOFT GREATER
ACRS CWA PER RAP ANALYSIS...CERTAINLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE SNOW MIX PER
RELATIVE WARM CLOUD TOP TEMPS SUGGESTING LACK OF/OR AT LEAST
QUESTIONABLE ICE CRYSTAL NUCLEATION PER AMDAR AND RAP SOUNDINGS. ALL
BUT FAR SERN THIRD OF CWA DIFFICULT TO MEASURE ESPECIALLY BYND 15
UTC AS FEATURE WEAKENS/PUSHES EWD WHILE FOCUS SAGS SEWD AS
INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINS WITH DVM ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGE
STRENGTHENING/BUILDING EWD THROUGH CNTL LWR MI THROUGH THE DAY. HELD
LINE ON TEMPS GIVEN ANTICIPATED LAGGARD CLOUD COVER WITH AFTERNOON
PARTIAL CLEARING RELEGATED PRIMARILY NORTH OF ROUTE 24. POOR
INSOLATION OPPORTUNITY AMID PERSISTENT 925MB CAA/LOW SOLAR ZENITH
ANGLE/SHORT DURATION OF SHORTWAVE FLUX. SLIGHT LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS
FOR SUN AM AS WELL...INLINE WITH GUIDANCE...ACCENTUATING N/S
GRADIENT AS NORTHERN CWA MOST LIKELY AND MORE READILY TO DECOUPLE
PER PROXIMAL SOUTHERN RIDGE PERIPHERY...AS WELL AS REMOVE MARINE
LAYER BLEED IN AS OFFSHORE/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FAVORS A COLD
KBEH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
SUNDAY STILL LOOKING RELATIVELY PLEASANT...THOUGH SEASONABLY COOL.
SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL RIDGE/AVA WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION AND SUPPORT
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE/HIGH PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH BUT MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 1C
SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW THEN PINWHEELS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK NORTH WITH A DECENT SWATH OF 290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT LOW
LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH ARRIVAL OF MIDLEVEL CVA BULLSEYE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
EXACT TIMING/TRACK OF EJECTING LOW BUT KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/MODERATE RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT...A FEW TENTHS
AT BEST GIVEN RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT OF MEDIOCRE FORCING AND
MOISTURE. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LIFTING CYCLONE TO
BRING SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE HELP OF WARM LAKE MICHIGAN
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
TIMING/TRACK ISSUES LEAD TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED. MOST AREAS
WILL NOT SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARM SURFACE TEMPS BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES COULD SEE A QUICK DUSTING
WEDNESDAY MORNING IF BETTER PRECIP RATES ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE. KEPT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY BUT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SCT SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IF SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
PRIMARY CHANGE TO MAINTAIN LOWERED CONDITIONS A BIT LONGER ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AS OHIO VALLEY FRONTAL WAVE SLOW TO TRACK NEWD.
LONGER DURATION CIGS BLO 2KFT AT KSBN. IFR CIGS INTO MIDDAY
FOLLOWED BY FUELING/ALTERNATE CRITERIA A BIT LONGER AT KFWA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
945 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MUCH OF THE LEADING EDGE OF ECHOES
OBSERVED ON RADAR ARE NOT RESULTING IN RAIN AT THE SURFACE...EVEN
WHERE THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL RETURNS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT. LOWER LAYERS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ALLOWING RAIN AT THE
SURFACE BUT THE RAIN WILL BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS. HAVE UPDATED
HOURLY GRIDS TO SLOW THE BEGIN TIMES OF THE RAIN. ALSO MADE A FEW
OTHER MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY NDFD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...
REACHING THE OHIO RIVER AS OF THIS UPDATE. WE ARE ALSO IN A LULL
OF SORTS UNTIL MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN KY/TN REACHES US LATER THIS MORNING...TO MID DAY. HRRR HAS
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS MOVING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z.
UNTIL THEN EXPECT MORE SCATTERED TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. EARLY MORNING UPDATE MAKES ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS AND ZONES
FOR LATEST THOUGHTS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
A SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST...OR KDAY BEFORE TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG VERY
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT
FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE SFC BOUNDARY ONLY INCHES ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD FROM THERE...MANAGING TO DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT
COMPLETELY. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE
FRONT KEEPING THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A LARGE AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION ECHOS IS PRODUCING MAINLY
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE KENTUCKY MESONET
IT APPEARS THAT A STATION OR TWO ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST HAVE MANAGED
TO SQUEAK OUT AS MUCH AS A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH THUS FAR THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WILL DO THE SAME BEFORE THIS
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MANAGED TO
EXIT TO THE EAST A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE MID 40S IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT HAVE ALREADY
SHOWN SIGNS OF REBOUNDING AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER
OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED
NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. RAIN DUE TO A
CONTINUOUS MOISTURE FEED AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LIKELY AT
TIMES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. FURTHER WEST...A LARGE UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST...IT IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN...ALLOWING A SFC LOW TO
FORM OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THIS SFC LOW WILL
PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT WILL ALSO PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY EVENING...KEEPING
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NEWD...THE UPPER
TROUGH GETS ELONGATED BACK TOWARD THE SW SLOWING DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC FRONT ALLOWING SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...THIS IS ALSO WHERE MODELS
DIFFERENCES EMERGE. THE GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER SFC LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EXTENDING PRECIP NW INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF/S SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS BUT STILL KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS OR JUST ABOVE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY THEN DROPPING TO AROUND 50 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT THEN
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 20S/NEAR 30 AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER. SCT
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL MORE STEADY AND WIDESPREAD RAIN
REENTER THE AREA BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z TODAY. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL
DROP WITH TIME AS A RESULT...WELL INTO MVFR RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN EVEN LOWER IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE S...SW
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FROM THE N...NE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER OUR NORTHERN MOST
COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING AND CREEP SOUTHWARD FROM THERE...
REACHING THE KY/TN/VA STATE LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING SUNDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JVM/HAL
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
740 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...
REACHING THE OHIO RIVER AS OF THIS UPDATE. WE ARE ALSO IN A LULL
OF SORTS UNTIL MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN KY/TN REACHES US LATER THIS MORNING...TO MID DAY. HRRR HAS
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS MOVING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z.
UNTIL THEN EXPECT MORE SCATTERED TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. EARLY MORNING UPDATE MAKES ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS AND ZONES
FOR LATEST THOUGHTS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
A SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST...OR KDAY BEFORE TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG VERY
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT
FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE SFC BOUNDARY ONLY INCHES ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD FROM THERE...MANAGING TO DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT
COMPLETELY. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE
FRONT KEEPING THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A LARGE AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION ECHOS IS PRODUCING MAINLY
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE KENTUCKY MESONET
IT APPEARS THAT A STATION OR TWO ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST HAVE MANAGED
TO SQUEAK OUT AS MUCH AS A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH THUS FAR THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WILL DO THE SAME BEFORE THIS
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MANAGED TO
EXIT TO THE EAST A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE MID 40S IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT HAVE ALREADY
SHOWN SIGNS OF REBOUNDING AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER
OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED
NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. RAIN DUE TO A
CONTINUOUS MOISTURE FEED AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LIKELY AT
TIMES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. FURTHER WEST...A LARGE UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST...IT IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN...ALLOWING A SFC LOW TO
FORM OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THIS SFC LOW WILL
PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT WILL ALSO PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY EVENING...KEEPING
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NEWD...THE UPPER
TROUGH GETS ELONGATED BACK TOWARD THE SW SLOWING DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC FRONT ALLOWING SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...THIS IS ALSO WHERE MODELS
DIFFERENCES EMERGE. THE GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER SFC LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EXTENDING PRECIP NW INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF/S SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS BUT STILL KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS OR JUST ABOVE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY THEN DROPPING TO AROUND 50 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT THEN
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 20S/NEAR 30 AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER. SCT
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL MORE STEADY AND WIDESPREAD RAIN
REENTER THE AREA BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z TODAY. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL
DROP WITH TIME AS A RESULT...WELL INTO MVFR RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN EVEN LOWER IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE S...SW
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FROM THE N...NE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER OUR NORTHERN MOST
COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING AND CREEP SOUTHWARD FROM THERE...
REACHING THE KY/TN/VA STATE LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING SUNDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JVM/HAL
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
641 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPES.
AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...IT
SEEMS TO BE MAKING A BIT OF HEADWAY TO THE EAST INTO THE ROCKIES IN
THE SHORT TERM AND MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSOLIDATING ON THE EVENTUAL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW. MODELS INDICATE THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE EVENING.
WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING HUGE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE WRF DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT THE HRRR IS STINGY WITH PRECIPITATION
TODAY...FOR EXAMPLE. A DRY PUNCH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP TYPE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES THE DRY LAYER...THE GFS DOES
INDICATE THAT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SO I DID STICK IN A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW ALONG
WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. NOW THE EXCEPTION THIS EVENING WILL BE IN
OUR SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE COULD SATURATE
EARLIER...AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO I KEPT A FREEZING
DRIZZLE/SLEET POTENTIAL IN FOR THIS AREA AS THE WARM LAYER WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN ZERO AND TWO DEGREES. I FIGURE THAT I AM
COVERED WITH THE FREEZING RAIN IF WE HAPPEN TO NOT BE SATURATED IN
THE LAYER OF POTENTIAL DENDRITES AND GET FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD.
I DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH INCLUDING A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES HERE...SO I WILL TRY TO KEEP IT SIMPLE. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION AT ALL FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. WENT
CLOSER TO HIRES NMM EAST FOR HIGHS AND SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...AS IT APPEARS TO BE DOING OKAY FOR LOWS THIS MORNING (I
RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
THE BIGGEST CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS WILL FOCUS ON AN
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE OUTLOOK AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
EVENTUALLY ANOTHER SNOW STORM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BECOMES ELONGATED AND POSITIVELY TILTED
BY SUNDAY MORNING STRETCHING FROM NEVADA INTO WYOMING. AT THE
SURFACE...MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE ROTATING
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS DEBATE JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL GO...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL INDICATE MORE OF A
FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT ON SUNDAY SHOULD PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AT
ALL.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND BETTER
LIFT TO THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL
A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS. BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES FIRST BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD. MADE AN ATTEMPT TO SHOW THIS
SLIGHT TRANSITION BY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER TO SNOW IN THE FORECAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO BASED ON THESE PRECIPITATION TYPES. WHEN ITS
ALL SAID AND DONE...THIS COULD BE THE LARGEST SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO FAR THIS YEAR. CURRENT SNOW
TOTALS ARE SHAPING UP TO BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA..WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT FOR CERTAIN AS THERE ARE
STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO CONSIDER. TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE AREA...HOW FAST WILL THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN
UP TO ALLOW SNOWFALL INSTEAD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR FREEZING OR POSSIBLY
WARMER. ALL OF THIS COULD DRASTICALLY REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. AS
FOR HEADLINES WITH THIS EVENT...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO WAIT TO ISSUE HEADLINES SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID NOT WANT TO BOX FUTURE SHIFTS
IN WITH HEADLINES FOR LATER TIME PERIODS IF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
THE WEEKEND TURNS OUT TO BE A BIGGER DEAL.
BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER PATTERN TURNS FAIRLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT
TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO HIGHS
IN THE 30S TO EVEN 40 DEGREES AT TIMES. OF COURSE...THIS TOO COULD
BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON RESULTANT SNOW COVER FROM THE MONDAY
STORM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY DIP TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO SATURATE. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF PRIMARILY SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...MORE SO FOR
TONIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THIS
FORECAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
553 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPES.
AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...IT
SEEMS TO BE MAKING A BIT OF HEADWAY TO THE EAST INTO THE ROCKIES IN
THE SHORT TERM AND MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSOLIDATING ON THE EVENTUAL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW. MODELS INDICATE THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE EVENING.
WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING HUGE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE WRF DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT THE HRRR IS STINGY WITH PRECIPITATION
TODAY...FOR EXAMPLE. A DRY PUNCH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP TYPE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES THE DRY LAYER...THE GFS DOES
INDICATE THAT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SO I DID STICK IN A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW ALONG
WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. NOW THE EXCEPTION THIS EVENING WILL BE IN
OUR SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE COULD SATURATE
EARLIER...AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO I KEPT A FREEZING
DRIZZLE/SLEET POTENTIAL IN FOR THIS AREA AS THE WARM LAYER WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN ZERO AND TWO DEGREES. I FIGURE THAT I AM
COVERED WITH THE FREEZING RAIN IF WE HAPPEN TO NOT BE SATURATED IN
THE LAYER OF POTENTIAL DENDRITES AND GET FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD.
I DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH INCLUDING A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES HERE...SO I WILL TRY TO KEEP IT SIMPLE. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION AT ALL FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. WENT
CLOSER TO HIRES NMM EAST FOR HIGHS AND SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...AS IT APPEARS TO BE DOING OKAY FOR LOWS THIS MORNING (I
RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY DIP TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO SATURATE. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF PRIMARILY SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...MORE SO FOR
TONIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THIS
FORECAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
512 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPES.
AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...IT
SEEMS TO BE MAKING A BIT OF HEADWAY TO THE EAST INTO THE ROCKIES IN
THE SHORT TERM AND MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSOLIDATING ON THE EVENTUAL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW. MODELS INDICATE THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE EVENING.
WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING HUGE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE WRF DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT THE HRRR IS STINGY WITH PRECIPITATION
TODAY...FOR EXAMPLE. A DRY PUNCH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP TYPE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES THE DRY LAYER...THE GFS DOES
INDICATE THAT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SO I DID STICK IN A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW ALONG
WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. NOW THE EXCEPTION THIS EVENING WILL BE IN
OUR SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE COULD SATURATE
EARLIER...AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO I KEPT A FREEZING
DRIZZLE/SLEET POTENTIAL IN FOR THIS AREA AS THE WARM LAYER WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN ZERO AND TWO DEGREES. I FIGURE THAT I AM
COVERED WITH THE FREEZING RAIN IF WE HAPPEN TO NOT BE SATURATED IN
THE LAYER OF POTENTIAL DENDRITES AND GET FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD.
I DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH INCLUDING A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES HERE...SO I WILL TRY TO KEEP IT SIMPLE. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION AT ALL FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. WENT
CLOSER TO HIRES NMM EAST FOR HIGHS AND SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...AS IT APPEARS TO BE DOING OKAY FOR LOWS THIS MORNING (I
RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1043 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH DOWN INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO START THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED SOUTH OF CINCINNATI THIS MORNING. WINDS IN
GENERAL WILL BE LIGHTER NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A
WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FRONT WITH NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA IN
PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND SE OHIO ARE IN THE MIDDLE 50S. DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT TO RISE MUCH TODAY.
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY
ALTHOUGH SLIGHT INCREASES OR DECREASES IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SE OHIO.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. TONIGHT THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE SE OF
INTERSTATE 71. ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RAIN EXPECT MORE IN
THE WAY OF DRIZZLE. PRECIPITATION VALUES WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WHERE THE
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ONE LIMITING FACTOR TO FOG WOULD BE THAT
IN MANY CASES THE WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTH....THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES ESTABLISHED...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUED
WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES (WITH RISING
TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING).
ON TUESDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE
SURFACE LOW OVER WISCONSIN...A LITTLE TOO FAR AWAY TO ALLOW THE
FRONTAL FORCING OR COLD ADVECTION TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. DRIER
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN END TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE IMPRESSIONS OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE...TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WERE ALL RAISED SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY ALSO CUT INTO
THE CHANCES OF SNOW ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST.
PHASE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THIS LUMBERING UPPER PATTERN
START TO BECOME PROBLEMATIC AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...CASTING SOME DOUBT ON EXACT PREDICTIONS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AFTER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS AND IS AT THE
DOOR STEP HERE AT KILN. IFR/ LIFR CIGS HAVE CONTINUED BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS MORNING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THESE
CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO FORECASTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES. LATEST RUNS OF
HRRR AND RAP ARE SHOWING RAIN COMING TO AN END NOW LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS IS PROBABLY A TAD
BULLISH BUT GIVEN ISENTROPIC SURFACES LOOKED AT EARLIER HAVE
TRENDED TAFS IN THIS DIRECTION. BY SUNDAY MORNING ALL RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CIGS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
605 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH DOWN INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO START THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING TO MAKE A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH
THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE DAYTON METRO
AREA TO AROUND KCMH. A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT...WITH READINGS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE MID 50S
JUST TO THE SOUTH.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY
EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTH TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 40S ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS MAINLY OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY...SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALSO LINGERING ACROSS OUR NORTH INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
PCPN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. HOWEVER...PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTH....THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES ESTABLISHED...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUED
WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES (WITH RISING
TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING).
ON TUESDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE
SURFACE LOW OVER WISCONSIN...A LITTLE TOO FAR AWAY TO ALLOW THE
FRONTAL FORCING OR COLD ADVECTION TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. DRIER
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN END TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE IMPRESSIONS OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE...TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WERE ALL RAISED SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY ALSO CUT INTO
THE CHANCES OF SNOW ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST.
PHASE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THIS LUMBERING UPPER PATTERN
START TO BECOME PROBLEMATIC AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...CASTING SOME DOUBT ON EXACT PREDICTIONS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AFTER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS AND IS AT THE
DOOR STEP HERE AT KILN. IFR/ LIFR CIGS HAVE CONTINUED BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS MORNING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THESE
CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO FORECASTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES. LATEST RUNS OF
HRRR AND RAP ARE SHOWING RAIN COMING TO AN END NOW LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS IS PROBABLY A TAD
BULLISH BUT GIVEN ISENTROPIC SURFACES LOOKED AT EARLIER HAVE
TRENDED TAFS IN THIS DIRECTION. BY SUNDAY MORNING ALL RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CIGS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
556 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WAS JUST REACHING THE COAST AT 11Z SO NOT QUITE
REACHING KGLS. EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
SINCE THE FRONT IS QUITE SLOW MOVING. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
RIDING OVER THE SHALLOW FRONTAL SURFACE SO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW CEILINGS. EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN CIGS TO MVFR BUT NOT LIKELY.
OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RA/DZ WITH IFR CIGS. KIAH AND KSGR ARE
ONLY SITES WITH LIFR CIGS WHICH SHOULD BECOME IFR LATER IN THE
MORNING. LOOK FOR IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MIGHT GET SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY BUT NAM/GFS STILL SUPPORT PREVAILING IFR CIGS.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN ISSUES FACING SE TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE
INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH THE SLOWLY
RECEDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. ANOTHER...
STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH SE TEXAS
ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
ALLOW A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE RAINFALL PATTERN DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE EAST SIDE OF METRO HOUSTON
AT 4 AM...HAVING PASSED THROUGH KIAH AND KHOU. THE FRONT WAS
ALREADY OFF THE COAST AT MATAGORDA BAY. THE 09Z RUN OF THE HRRR
MODEL SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT.
THIS MODEL DOES NOT MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH GALVESTON AND POINTS
EAST ALONG THE COAST UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING. IN ANY EVENT...THE
RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.
BETTER COVERAGE WAS IN ADVANCE OF THE 925 TROUGH WHICH THE HRRR
KEEPS BASICALLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR WACO TO JUST WEST OF
CALDWELL TODAY AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THAT THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO THE
NORTHWEST...THINK THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM LIVINGSTON TO HUNTSVILLE TO NEAR COLUMBUS. THIS
WILL CONTRAST TO AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH OR LESS TOWARD THE
COAST.
LESS OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WENT WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR BOTH
PERIODS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT THUNDER THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
40
MARINE...
BUOYS STILL SHOW 7FT SWELL WITH 10 SEC PERIODS. EXPECT THESE SWELLS
TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH PROBABLY SOME SUBSIDING SINCE WINDS WILL BE
LESS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
APPROACHING GALVESTON BAY AND MAY HAVE JUST PUSHED THROUGH MATAGORDA
BAY. FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH
TODAY. LATEST HRRR AND WRF ARW/NMM ALL HAVE THE FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPING SOUTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTH AT 10 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH INCREASED NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT. CAUTION OR ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
TIDES...ARE STILL ELEVATED ABOUT 1.2 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WINDS HAVE SLACKED OFF RESULTING IN MOST TIDE GAGES NOW SHOWING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN TIDE LEVELS. OVERALL TIDE LEVELS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH MORNING WITH LOW TIDE. HIGH TIDE ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES
OF GALVESTON AND BOLIVAR IS STILL AROUND 6PM THIS EVENING.
THINKING THAT TIDES MAY ONLY BE ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WOULD MAKE THE OVERALL WATER LEVEL ABOUT 3 FEET ABOVE MLLW INSTEAD
OF 3.5 FEET RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TIDE LEVELS AND ISSUE ADVISORIES IF NEEDED BUT
MORE CONFIDENT IN NOT HAVING AN ADVISORY THIS EVENING.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 47 43 50 47 58 / 90 60 60 50 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 57 50 60 53 63 / 70 40 40 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 59 66 59 64 / 40 30 30 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
453 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN ISSUES FACING SE TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE
INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH THE SLOWLY
RECEDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. ANOTHER...
STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH SE TEXAS
ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
ALLOW A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE RAINFALL PATTERN DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE EAST SIDE OF METRO HOUSTON
AT 4 AM...HAVING PASSED THROUGH KIAH AND KHOU. THE FRONT WAS
ALREADY OFF THE COAST AT MATAGORDA BAY. THE 09Z RUN OF THE HRRR
MODEL SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT.
THIS MODEL DOES NOT MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH GALVESTON AND POINTS
EAST ALONG THE COAST UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING. IN ANY EVENT...THE
RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.
BETTER COVERAGE WAS IN ADVANCE OF THE 925 TROUGH WHICH THE HRRR
KEEPS BASICALLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR WACO TO JUST WEST OF
CALDWELL TODAY AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THAT THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO THE
NORTHWEST...THINK THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM LIVINGSTON TO HUNTSVILLE TO NEAR COLUMBUS. THIS
WILL CONTRAST TO AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH OR LESS TOWARD THE
COAST.
LESS OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WENT WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR BOTH
PERIODS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT THUNDER THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
40
&&
.MARINE...
BUOYS STILL SHOW 7FT SWELL WITH 10 SEC PERIODS. EXPECT THESE SWELLS
TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH PROBABLY SOME SUBSIDING SINCE WINDS WILL BE
LESS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
APPROACHING GALVESTON BAY AND MAY HAVE JUST PUSHED THROUGH MATAGORDA
BAY. FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH
TODAY. LATEST HRRR AND WRF ARW/NMM ALL HAVE THE FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPING SOUTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTH AT 10 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH INCREASED NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT. CAUTION OR ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
TIDES...ARE STILL ELEVATED ABOUT 1.2 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WINDS HAVE SLACKED OFF RESULTING IN MOST TIDE GAGES NOW SHOWING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN TIDE LEVELS. OVERALL TIDE LEVELS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH MORNING WITH LOW TIDE. HIGH TIDE ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES
OF GALVESTON AND BOLIVAR IS STILL AROUND 6PM THIS EVENING.
THINKING THAT TIDES MAY ONLY BE ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WOULD MAKE THE OVERALL WATER LEVEL ABOUT 3 FEET ABOVE MLLW INSTEAD
OF 3.5 FEET RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TIDE LEVELS AND ISSUE ADVISORIES IF NEEDED BUT
MORE CONFIDENT IN NOT HAVING AN ADVISORY THIS EVENING.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 47 43 50 47 58 / 90 60 60 50 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 57 50 60 53 63 / 70 40 40 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 59 66 59 64 / 40 30 30 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
411 AM PST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will produce light winds and a strong
temperature inversion over the Inland Northwest through early next
week. Low clouds and fog will become common by Sunday or Monday.
Air stagnation may also lead to areas of decreased air quality.
A frontal system is expected to bring a chance of wintry
precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: High pressure continues to intensify over the
Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia. Air Stagnation
Advisories remain in effect through noon Monday, and may be
extended into midweek once we coordinate with air quality agencies
on Monday. Mid-level subsidence will further strengthen the
inversion over our region today making for a very difficult
temperature forecast. The light winds and cold overnight
temperatures will cause many lowland areas to be cooler than
yesterday while higher elevations will be several degrees warmer,
especially over north central and northeast Washington. Elevations
above 3000 feet will have the potential to warm into the 40s this
afternoon while nearby valleys may struggle to reach 30. To
complicate matters areas of fog and low clouds have expanded over
the Palouse, L-C Valley, and portions of northeast Washington. The
fog and low clouds will likely expand through mid-morning, and a
dense fog advisory may be needed today. Since it is the
Thanksgiving weekend, there will be more motorists on the road. As
our air mass continues to moisten through evaporative and
sublimation processes, fog and low clouds should continue to
increase tonight. Places that have fog and low clouds in the
evening and through the night will remain warmer than spots that
keep clear skies. So low temperature forecasting will be a big
challenge with some big bust potential.
Sunday and Monday: Fog and low clouds will become more widespread
Sunday into Monday. Look for our diurnal temperature spreads to
shrink as more of the Basin and surrounding lowlands becomes
enshrouded in low clouds. Dreary and chilly winter weather we
come to expect this time of year. /GKoch
Tuesday through Friday...Models are in good agreement of the ridge
shifting east allowing a couple short wave troughs to pass through
the Inland NW. The main challenge during this forecast period will
be precipitation type. Initially...cold air is expected to be in
place allowing for snow levels down to the valley floors.
The first system arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models do
not agree on how well this will hold together by the time it
reaches North Idaho as energy splits as it moves inland.
Confidence is highest for the Cascades receiving light to moderate
snow amounts with a chance for light snow across the remainder of
the area. There is a warm nose that extends from Moses Lake to
Ritzville south to the Oregon border which could bring a brief
period of freezing rain to these areas. Given the first system is
weak with little wind...is not expected to completely mix out the
cold air in the valleys. This leads to the next precip type
challenge Wednesday night into Thursday when the next system
arrives.
Mild southwest flow Thursday morning result in the models warming
850mb temps to 1-3C or warmer from Moses Lake to Deer Park to
Sandpoint southward while cold air damming into the East Slopes
keeps cold air in place. This should result in snow for the East
Slopes as well as the Okanogan Valley and Highlands and possibly
Wenatchee. Pockets of freezing rain are possible in the Columbia
Basin, Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area, and northern valleys depending
on how much low level sub-freezing air remains and timing of
precip. If precip holds off til Thursday afternoon then this
threat would be greatly diminished. Overall confidence in freezing
rain this far out is low but the potential exists. Southeast winds
on the palouse should mix out the cold air quickly resulting in
just rain for Pullman and Lewiston. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Fog and low clouds over the Palouse and Lower Columbia
Basin continues to expand early this morning. As of 3 AM, the
latest satellite trends (fog channel) suggest fog or low stratus
will move into Moses Lake by sunrise. With the light wind regime
and strong inversion, Pullman could be in 1/2 mile or less for a
good portion of the day. The NAM boundary layer moisture prog and
the HRRR surface visibility prog suggests KGEG and KSFF will be on
the fringe of the fog bank today with fog overspreading the metro
tonight. Even the highest resolution models struggle with shallow
surface moisture so forecast confidence is low. /GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 15 28 17 29 19 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 30 17 29 18 31 19 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Pullman 27 19 30 21 32 21 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Lewiston 28 22 31 23 33 24 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Colville 35 13 32 16 32 17 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Sandpoint 30 17 30 18 31 19 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Kellogg 30 14 32 17 32 20 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Moses Lake 29 19 28 21 29 20 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Wenatchee 33 22 28 22 29 21 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Omak 30 18 27 19 28 19 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Monday for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis
and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Monday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses
Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-
Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper
Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-
Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
536 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST A FEW SHRA MOVING IN FROM TIME TO TIME
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. DECIDED TO KEEP VCSH OUT AT THIS TIME AS
THE SHRA ARE FORECAST TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACTS. LOW PROB OF BRIEF MVFR, THAT`S IT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT WHILE LIKELY BECOMING N-NW ALONG ALL BUT THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AS PER HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE. ON
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NE AT 10-15 KT AT ALL SITES WITH SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO OUR NORTH WITH A
CONTINUED LOOSENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS SUCH,
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT STILL JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVING INLAND ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY.
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW HAS GENERATED RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS REPORTED TODAY
AT SOUTH BEACH ALONG WITH SEVERAL RESCUES. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE
EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN HOW PRONOUNCED
THE TROUGH WILL BE AND IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL GET. GFS MOVES THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY THU WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THIS FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
THU AND STALLS IT OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. EITHER WAY...THERE DOES LOOK
TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE WEEK ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A STEADY INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE AND DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 70S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SLIGHT COOLING/DRYING IS POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONT`S PUSH SOUTH IS HIGH.
CERTAINLY THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT COOL AIR IS IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /GREGORIA
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND. THE
WIND IS ALREADY SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER,
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRETTY NON-EXISTENT TODAY AND SHORT
RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TREND WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE, BUT A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND
MOVING QUICKLY ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON ANY OF THE
TAF SITES.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID WEEK WITH WEAKENING SPEEDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO SLOWLY DECLINE. HOWEVER,
HAZARDOUS SEAS TO AROUND 7 FT ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF STREAM
THROUGH TOMORROW. /GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 82 72 83 / 20 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 82 73 82 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 70 82 72 84 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 63 83 66 85 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
230 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
INDIANA WILL LIE BETWEEN A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH TODAY. AS THE WEEKEND GOES ON...THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND TAKE CONTROL OF HOOSIER WEATHER.
FROM MONDAY INTO A WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS INDIANA WHILE
MOVING NORTH AND THEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WAS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF KSDF WITH RAIN PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE ENTIRE AREA SEEING THE CHILLY N/NE FLOW. 15Z TEMPS RANGED FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS ONCE AGAIN ON TEMPERATURES
AND FINE TUNING POPS AS RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST.
HRRR/WRF GUIDANCE AGAIN HAS A NICE HANDLE ON PRECIP COVERAGE WITH
PRECIP ENDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. WHERE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT A SHALLOW SUBFREEZING LAYER DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 1-2KFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY ENABLE GRAUPEL TO PERIODICALLY MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN AS
IT ENDS. WILL NOT INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AND EXPECTED LOCALIZED COVERAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE LITTLE IF NOT FALL A COUPLE DEGREES LATER
TODAY. HAVE TRENDED HOURLY TEMPS CLOSER TO LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAW
SURFACE TEMPS OFF THE RAP FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH MOST AREAS
HOVERING BETWEEN THE UPPER 30S AND MID 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
STEADY N/NE WINDS WILL ADD TO THE RAW DAMP FEELING PRESENT.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
THE IMMEDIATE PROBLEM IS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT RAIN RETREATING SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT...BUT THE GFS BRINGS SOME BACK LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE GFS COULD BE RIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT IS A POTENTIAL AREA FOR
INERTIAL INSTABILITY. THE MODEL HAS NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
VORTICITY WHICH WOULD REFLECT THIS AT 18Z TOMORROW. THE LAST TIME
SOMETHING SIMILAR HAPPENED THE GFS WAS CORRECT. FOR THAT REASON THE
MAV POPS THAT RELY ON IT WILL BE USED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
AFTER SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW PROGRESSIVELY GREATER DIFFERENCES
DEVELOPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. CONSENSUS WILL BE USED TO
GRAPPLE WITH THIS.
SKIES ARE APT TO STAY CLOUDY THANKS TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL STUFF
COMING OUT OF THE TROUGH ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES EXCEPT
FOR THE MAV COLDER AT SOME PLACES SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON WHATS BEEN
OCCURRING AROUND THE FRONT IT LOOKS BETTER THEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UPPER
TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TO START THE LONG TERM. A WEAK WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH COULD BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S BUT WARM ADVECTION BEGINS DURING THE DAY AND THEN SHOULD
SEE TEMPS WARM BY A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM
THURSDAY ON. SUPERBLEND CAPTURED THE PATTERN WELL WITH NO NEED FOR
MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
MAINLY IFR AT ALL SITES BUT POSSIBLY KLAF FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF AS WELL. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED AT KLAF AROUND 3-6Z BUT WILL NOT REACH KBMG UNTIL
AROUND 15Z...WITH KHUF AND KIND AROUND 9-12Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
100 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
LIGHT RAIN WILL END BY EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE SOME IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 20S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
RATHER BENIGN NEAR/SHORT TERM PD AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ENEWD THROUGH
OHIO VALLEY. FINAL VESTIGES OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
/ESPECIALLY WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR UVM OWING TO LOCAL PRESSURE
TENDENCY/DERIVATIVE ON I285-290K SURFACES EJECTING FROM ECNTL
ILLINOIS TO ALONG AND S OF ROUTE 24 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AM AND WILL
ACCOUNT WITH SEPARATE PREFIRST PD. WHILE SOME RAPL MIX ACROSS NERN
IL EARLIER THIS EVENING AND SOME UP AWOS ACRS SRN LWR MI...HAVE
MAINTAINED ALL LIQUID AS MAGNITUDE AND DEPTH OF MAX TW ALOFT GREATER
ACRS CWA PER RAP ANALYSIS...CERTAINLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE SNOW MIX PER
RELATIVE WARM CLOUD TOP TEMPS SUGGESTING LACK OF/OR AT LEAST
QUESTIONABLE ICE CRYSTAL NUCLEATION PER AMDAR AND RAP SOUNDINGS. ALL
BUT FAR SERN THIRD OF CWA DIFFICULT TO MEASURE ESPECIALLY BYND 15
UTC AS FEATURE WEAKENS/PUSHES EWD WHILE FOCUS SAGS SEWD AS
INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINS WITH DVM ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGE
STRENGTHENING/BUILDING EWD THROUGH CNTL LWR MI THROUGH THE DAY. HELD
LINE ON TEMPS GIVEN ANTICIPATED LAGGARD CLOUD COVER WITH AFTERNOON
PARTIAL CLEARING RELEGATED PRIMARILY NORTH OF ROUTE 24. POOR
INSOLATION OPPORTUNITY AMID PERSISTENT 925MB CAA/LOW SOLAR ZENITH
ANGLE/SHORT DURATION OF SHORTWAVE FLUX. SLIGHT LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS
FOR SUN AM AS WELL...INLINE WITH GUIDANCE...ACCENTUATING N/S
GRADIENT AS NORTHERN CWA MOST LIKELY AND MORE READILY TO DECOUPLE
PER PROXIMAL SOUTHERN RIDGE PERIPHERY...AS WELL AS REMOVE MARINE
LAYER BLEED IN AS OFFSHORE/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FAVORS A COLD
KBEH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
SUNDAY STILL LOOKING RELATIVELY PLEASANT...THOUGH SEASONABLY COOL.
SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL RIDGE/AVA WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION AND SUPPORT
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE/HIGH PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH BUT MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 1C
SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW THEN PINWHEELS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK NORTH WITH A DECENT SWATH OF 290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT LOW
LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH ARRIVAL OF MIDLEVEL CVA BULLSEYE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
EXACT TIMING/TRACK OF EJECTING LOW BUT KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/MODERATE RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT...A FEW TENTHS
AT BEST GIVEN RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT OF MEDIOCRE FORCING AND
MOISTURE. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LIFTING CYCLONE TO
BRING SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE HELP OF WARM LAKE MICHIGAN
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
TIMING/TRACK ISSUES LEAD TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED. MOST AREAS
WILL NOT SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARM SURFACE TEMPS BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES COULD SEE A QUICK DUSTING
WEDNESDAY MORNING IF BETTER PRECIP RATES ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE. KEPT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY BUT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SCT SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IF SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNGLIDE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL HELP
CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...SKIPPER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
LIGHT RAIN WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE SOME IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 20S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
RATHER BENIGN NEAR/SHORT TERM PD AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ENEWD THROUGH
OHIO VALLEY. FINAL VESTIGES OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
/ESPECIALLY WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR UVM OWING TO LOCAL PRESSURE
TENDENCY/DERIVATIVE ON I285-290K SURFACES EJECTING FROM ECNTL
ILLINOIS TO ALONG AND S OF ROUTE 24 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AM AND WILL
ACCOUNT WITH SEPARATE PREFIRST PD. WHILE SOME RAPL MIX ACROSS NERN
IL EARLIER THIS EVENING AND SOME UP AWOS ACRS SRN LWR MI...HAVE
MAINTAINED ALL LIQUID AS MAGNITUDE AND DEPTH OF MAX TW ALOFT GREATER
ACRS CWA PER RAP ANALYSIS...CERTAINLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE SNOW MIX PER
RELATIVE WARM CLOUD TOP TEMPS SUGGESTING LACK OF/OR AT LEAST
QUESTIONABLE ICE CRYSTAL NUCLEATION PER AMDAR AND RAP SOUNDINGS. ALL
BUT FAR SERN THIRD OF CWA DIFFICULT TO MEASURE ESPECIALLY BYND 15
UTC AS FEATURE WEAKENS/PUSHES EWD WHILE FOCUS SAGS SEWD AS
INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINS WITH DVM ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGE
STRENGTHENING/BUILDING EWD THROUGH CNTL LWR MI THROUGH THE DAY. HELD
LINE ON TEMPS GIVEN ANTICIPATED LAGGARD CLOUD COVER WITH AFTERNOON
PARTIAL CLEARING RELEGATED PRIMARILY NORTH OF ROUTE 24. POOR
INSOLATION OPPORTUNITY AMID PERSISTENT 925MB CAA/LOW SOLAR ZENITH
ANGLE/SHORT DURATION OF SHORTWAVE FLUX. SLIGHT LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS
FOR SUN AM AS WELL...INLINE WITH GUIDANCE...ACCENTUATING N/S
GRADIENT AS NORTHERN CWA MOST LIKELY AND MORE READILY TO DECOUPLE
PER PROXIMAL SOUTHERN RIDGE PERIPHERY...AS WELL AS REMOVE MARINE
LAYER BLEED IN AS OFFSHORE/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FAVORS A COLD
KBEH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
SUNDAY STILL LOOKING RELATIVELY PLEASANT...THOUGH SEASONABLY COOL.
SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL RIDGE/AVA WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION AND SUPPORT
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE/HIGH PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH BUT MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 1C
SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW THEN PINWHEELS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK NORTH WITH A DECENT SWATH OF 290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT LOW
LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH ARRIVAL OF MIDLEVEL CVA BULLSEYE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
EXACT TIMING/TRACK OF EJECTING LOW BUT KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/MODERATE RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT...A FEW TENTHS
AT BEST GIVEN RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT OF MEDIOCRE FORCING AND
MOISTURE. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LIFTING CYCLONE TO
BRING SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE HELP OF WARM LAKE MICHIGAN
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
TIMING/TRACK ISSUES LEAD TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED. MOST AREAS
WILL NOT SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARM SURFACE TEMPS BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES COULD SEE A QUICK DUSTING
WEDNESDAY MORNING IF BETTER PRECIP RATES ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE. KEPT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY BUT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SCT SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IF SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
PRIMARY CHANGE TO MAINTAIN LOWERED CONDITIONS A BIT LONGER ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AS OHIO VALLEY FRONTAL WAVE SLOW TO TRACK NEWD.
LONGER DURATION CIGS BLO 2KFT AT KSBN. IFR CIGS INTO MIDDAY
FOLLOWED BY FUELING/ALTERNATE CRITERIA A BIT LONGER AT KFWA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1200 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
INDIANA WILL LIE BETWEEN A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH TODAY. AS THE WEEKEND GOES ON...THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND TAKE CONTROL OF HOOSIER WEATHER.
FROM MONDAY INTO A WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS INDIANA WHILE
MOVING NORTH AND THEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WAS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF KSDF WITH RAIN PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE ENTIRE AREA SEEING THE CHILLY N/NE FLOW. 15Z TEMPS RANGED FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS ONCE AGAIN ON TEMPERATURES
AND FINE TUNING POPS AS RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST.
HRRR/WRF GUIDANCE AGAIN HAS A NICE HANDLE ON PRECIP COVERAGE WITH
PRECIP ENDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. WHERE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT A SHALLOW SUBFREEZING LAYER DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 1-2KFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY ENABLE GRAUPEL TO PERIODICALLY MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN AS
IT ENDS. WILL NOT INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AND EXPECTED LOCALIZED COVERAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE LITTLE IF NOT FALL A COUPLE DEGREES LATER
TODAY. HAVE TRENDED HOURLY TEMPS CLOSER TO LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAW
SURFACE TEMPS OFF THE RAP FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH MOST AREAS
HOVERING BETWEEN THE UPPER 30S AND MID 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
STEADY N/NE WINDS WILL ADD TO THE RAW DAMP FEELING PRESENT.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
THE IMMEDIATE PROBLEM IS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT RAIN RETREATING SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT...BUT THE GFS BRINGS SOME BACK LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE GFS COULD BE RIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT IS A POTENTIAL AREA FOR
INERTIAL INSTABILITY. THE MODEL HAS NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
VORTICITY WHICH WOULD REFLECT THIS AT 18Z TOMORROW. THE LAST TIME
SOMETHING SIMILAR HAPPENED THE GFS WAS CORRECT. FOR THAT REASON THE
MAV POPS THAT RELY ON IT WILL BE USED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
AFTER SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW PROGRESSIVELY GREATER DIFFERENCES
DEVELOPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. CONSENSUS WILL BE USED TO
GRAPPLE WITH THIS.
SKIES ARE APT TO STAY CLOUDY THANKS TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL STUFF
COMING OUT OF THE TROUGH ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES EXCEPT
FOR THE MAV COLDER AT SOME PLACES SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON WHATS BEEN
OCCURRING AROUND THE FRONT IT LOOKS BETTER THEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON
TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE LOW CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW PASSES OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
BY THAT POINT...AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
MAINLY IFR AT ALL SITES BUT POSSIBLY KLAF FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF AS WELL. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED AT KLAF AROUND 3-6Z BUT WILL NOT REACH KBMG UNTIL
AROUND 15Z...WITH KHUF AND KIND AROUND 9-12Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
117 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
...updated short and long...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
Have been watching radar trends over the last few hours across south-
central Kansas. The HRRR and ECMWF show some additional snow showers
possible this afternoon developing on the 850-hPa baroclinic zone. As
a result, have extended the winter weather advisory across south-central
Kansas until 6 pm. There is a chance that this advisory might run a
little long and might need to be canceled earlier if WSR-88D trends
bear this out. Otherwise, much of the area will remain dry. The atmosphere
will remain fairly saturated through the overnight that freezing drizzle
looks fairly likely. Minimums should be in the 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
Southwest Kansas will still remain in a favorable jet streak position
for some light snow showers tomorrow night. In addition to dynamic lift
aloft, there will be a 850-700-hPa baroclinic zone passing through.
Some low level isentropic lift should lead to some snow showers across
the northern zones late Sunday night and into Monday morning. Have
issued a winter weather advisory up north since light snow amounts
(1-3") are possible and people still could be traveling back home
from holiday travels. Current snow amounts may be a tad high, but
still feel that the I70 corridor could become slick again. After
this event, we enter a dry period with dry northerly flow aloft and
weak high pressure at the sfc. There might be some showers in about
a week from now along a front. The superblend pops look fine for
now. Temperatures will moderate through the end of the weekend and
into the upcoming business week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
Poor flight conditions all around. Not a period for VFR/GA pilots. MVFR/IFR
conditions today will continue and will decrease to LIFR as cigs lower
along with freezing drizzle tonight. Winds will be N/NE 5-15 kt.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 21 32 26 35 / 10 30 60 10
GCK 20 31 25 33 / 10 30 70 10
EHA 20 34 23 36 / 10 30 40 10
LBL 21 34 25 36 / 10 30 40 10
HYS 21 28 26 33 / 10 60 80 50
P28 26 34 28 38 / 10 30 60 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ066-
080-081-088>090.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for
KSZ030-031-043>046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1243 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MUCH OF THE LEADING EDGE OF ECHOES
OBSERVED ON RADAR ARE NOT RESULTING IN RAIN AT THE SURFACE...EVEN
WHERE THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL RETURNS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT. LOWER LAYERS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ALLOWING RAIN AT THE
SURFACE BUT THE RAIN WILL BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS. HAVE UPDATED
HOURLY GRIDS TO SLOW THE BEGIN TIMES OF THE RAIN. ALSO MADE A FEW
OTHER MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY NDFD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...
REACHING THE OHIO RIVER AS OF THIS UPDATE. WE ARE ALSO IN A LULL
OF SORTS UNTIL MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN KY/TN REACHES US LATER THIS MORNING...TO MID DAY. HRRR HAS
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS MOVING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z.
UNTIL THEN EXPECT MORE SCATTERED TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. EARLY MORNING UPDATE MAKES ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS AND ZONES
FOR LATEST THOUGHTS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
A SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST...OR KDAY BEFORE TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG VERY
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT
FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE SFC BOUNDARY ONLY INCHES ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD FROM THERE...MANAGING TO DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT
COMPLETELY. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE
FRONT KEEPING THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A LARGE AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION ECHOS IS PRODUCING MAINLY
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE KENTUCKY MESONET
IT APPEARS THAT A STATION OR TWO ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST HAVE MANAGED
TO SQUEAK OUT AS MUCH AS A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH THUS FAR THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WILL DO THE SAME BEFORE THIS
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MANAGED TO
EXIT TO THE EAST A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE MID 40S IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT HAVE ALREADY
SHOWN SIGNS OF REBOUNDING AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER
OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED
NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. RAIN DUE TO A
CONTINUOUS MOISTURE FEED AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LIKELY AT
TIMES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. FURTHER WEST...A LARGE UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST...IT IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN...ALLOWING A SFC LOW TO
FORM OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THIS SFC LOW WILL
PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT WILL ALSO PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY EVENING...KEEPING
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NEWD...THE UPPER
TROUGH GETS ELONGATED BACK TOWARD THE SW SLOWING DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC FRONT ALLOWING SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...THIS IS ALSO WHERE MODELS
DIFFERENCES EMERGE. THE GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER SFC LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EXTENDING PRECIP NW INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF/S SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS BUT STILL KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS OR JUST ABOVE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY THEN DROPPING TO AROUND 50 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT THEN
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 20S/NEAR 30 AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE TN AND VA BORDERS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL. THE
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE INITIAL RAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS FIRST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND
PERSISTENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JVM/HAL
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1134 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPES.
AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...IT
SEEMS TO BE MAKING A BIT OF HEADWAY TO THE EAST INTO THE ROCKIES IN
THE SHORT TERM AND MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSOLIDATING ON THE EVENTUAL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW. MODELS INDICATE THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE EVENING.
WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING HUGE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE WRF DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT THE HRRR IS STINGY WITH PRECIPITATION
TODAY...FOR EXAMPLE. A DRY PUNCH TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP TYPE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES THE DRY LAYER...THE GFS DOES
INDICATE THAT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SO I DID STICK IN A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW ALONG
WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. NOW THE EXCEPTION THIS EVENING WILL BE IN
OUR SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE COULD SATURATE
EARLIER...AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO I KEPT A FREEZING
DRIZZLE/SLEET POTENTIAL IN FOR THIS AREA AS THE WARM LAYER WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN ZERO AND TWO DEGREES. I FIGURE THAT I AM
COVERED WITH THE FREEZING RAIN IF WE HAPPEN TO NOT BE SATURATED IN
THE LAYER OF POTENTIAL DENDRITES AND GET FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD.
I DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH INCLUDING A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES HERE...SO I WILL TRY TO KEEP IT SIMPLE. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION AT ALL FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. WENT
CLOSER TO HIRES NMM EAST FOR HIGHS AND SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...AS IT APPEARS TO BE DOING OKAY FOR LOWS THIS MORNING (I
RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
THE BIGGEST CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS WILL FOCUS ON AN
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE OUTLOOK AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
EVENTUALLY ANOTHER SNOW STORM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BECOMES ELONGATED AND POSITIVELY TILTED
BY SUNDAY MORNING STRETCHING FROM NEVADA INTO WYOMING. AT THE
SURFACE...MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE ROTATING
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS DEBATE JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL GO...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL INDICATE MORE OF A
FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT ON SUNDAY SHOULD PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AT
ALL.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND BETTER
LIFT TO THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL
A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS. BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES FIRST BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD. MADE AN ATTEMPT TO SHOW THIS
SLIGHT TRANSITION BY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER TO SNOW IN THE FORECAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO BASED ON THESE PRECIPITATION TYPES. WHEN ITS
ALL SAID AND DONE...THIS COULD BE THE LARGEST SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO FAR THIS YEAR. CURRENT SNOW
TOTALS ARE SHAPING UP TO BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA..WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT FOR CERTAIN AS THERE ARE
STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO CONSIDER. TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE AREA...HOW FAST WILL THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN
UP TO ALLOW SNOWFALL INSTEAD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR FREEZING OR POSSIBLY
WARMER. ALL OF THIS COULD DRASTICALLY REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. AS
FOR HEADLINES WITH THIS EVENT...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO WAIT TO ISSUE HEADLINES SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID NOT WANT TO BOX FUTURE SHIFTS
IN WITH HEADLINES FOR LATER TIME PERIODS IF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
THE WEEKEND TURNS OUT TO BE A BIGGER DEAL.
BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER PATTERN TURNS FAIRLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT
TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO HIGHS
IN THE 30S TO EVEN 40 DEGREES AT TIMES. OF COURSE...THIS TOO COULD
BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON RESULTANT SNOW COVER FROM THE MONDAY
STORM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THIS TAF FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT DETERIORATING CEILINGS ARE FORECAST THIS EVENINGTHROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SOME QUESTION REMAINS WITH TIMING OF THE
SUB VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER CONCERN...MAINLY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...LIES WITH -FZDZ POTENTIAL. AT THIS
POINT...KEPT THE MENTION OUT AS NOT ALL MODELS AGREE WITH ITS
OCCURRENCE THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW...BUT IS SOMETHING TO CERTAINLY
KEEP AN EYE ON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
358 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL NOT FAR FROM AVERAGE FOR THE
END OF NOVEMBER. THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL
GRADUALLY END THIS EVENING WHEN DRIER MID-LEVEL DROPS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE PATCHY FOG ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS CLOUD COVER...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGESTING THAT MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO QUICK TO CLEAR SKIES OUT.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVELS WILL DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY...THERE WILL BE
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION.
NAM BUFKIT AND THE HRRR CAPTURE THIS MOISTURE...BUT THIS GUIDANCE IS
SOMETIMES TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN THIS CASE...THE
NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS THE
FORECAST WILL FAVOR THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS MAY REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF CLOUDS POSSIBLE
AN ALL AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER
IS LOW.
THIS WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPERATURES...SINCE CLOUD COVER WOULD PREVENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH A PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ELSEWHERE LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN
THE UPPER 20S...BUT POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER IF THERE IS ANY
CLEARING. ALSO...IF SKIES DO CLEAR OUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN SPOTS.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...WITH MODEST DAYTIME MIXING LIKELY TO
MIX OUT THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MOST GUIDANCE
HANGS ONTO AT LEAST SOME LOW MOISTURE...AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FORECASTS SOME LIGHT QPF. MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER LIGHT QPF CAN
SOMETIMES BE A SIGNAL BY MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THERE WILL BE LOW
STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT WIND DIRECTION FROM NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL... ONLY
ABOUT 0.15 INCH PW... KEEP CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE COOL AND DRY AIR WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EACH DAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS WILL
PROMOTE LOWS IN THE 20S... AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AS LOW-
LEVEL RETURN FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S FROM THE FINGER LAKES
TO LAKE ERIE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE A RAPIDLY OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW NEARLY BENEATH IT...AND A
POCKET OF COLD AIR SWEEPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PW EXCEEDING AN INCH...WILL PROVIDE
A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE FOR RAINFALL STARTING MID MORNING ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADY RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR AN INCH
ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN TO A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO RISE ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CUT-OFF LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL FINALLY BE ON
THE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW... WITH AN AMPLE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE WARM FRONT /
DEVELOPING LLJ SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS A BAND OF RAINFALL THAT WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO
THE LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY. THE BY TUESDAY EVENING OR INTO WEDNESDAY
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK AND TIMING
BETWEEN THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN IMPROVING... THERE
REMAINS ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC. THE
ENSEMBLES / ESPECIALLY THE EC ENSEMBLES/ DEPICT AN INTERESTING BI-
MODAL DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING... WITH ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY LIKE THE GFS AND THE
OTHER HALF HOLD IT BACK UNTIL WEDNESDAY LIKE THE OPERATIONAL EC...
WITH FEW ENSEMBLES IN THE MIDDLE GROUND.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TIMING... BY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
THEN SETTLE EAST OF THE LAKES INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CUT-
OFF NATURE OF THIS LOW... THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL COLD AIR TAP FROM
HIGHER LATITUDES... AND MODELS ARE ONLY DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS DOWN
TO ABOUT -4 TO -7C IN THE CORE OF THE LOW. THESE MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
48F LAKE SURFACES... HOWEVER... EXPECT MAINLY THE HIGHER HILLS SOUTH
OF BUFFALO AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT
COULD REALLY SEE LAKE SHOWERS MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT... IT IS NOT LOOKING GREAT FOR BUFFALO TO SEE ITS
FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH THIS STORM... WHICH
TAKES US THROUGH DECEMBER 2ND AND 3RD (ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE
IT OUT YET). THE RECORD LATEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT KBUF IS
DECEMBER 3RD (WHICH OCCURRED IN 1899). IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH
THIS STORM SYSTEM WITHOUT MEASURING 0.1 INCHES OF SNOW... IT COULD
ACTUALLY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE GET ANOTHER CHANCE AT SNOW. AFTER
THIS STORM SYSTEM... RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES NORTH TO THE HUDSON BAY FROM THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES (GEFS THROUGH
360HRS AND THE CFS) INDICATE THAT THIS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FEATURE THAT COULD LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE 2ND
OR 3RD WEEK OF DECEMBER. SHOULD THIS COME TO FRUITION... WE WOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...
AND ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR REMAINING AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH PERHAPS ONLY A FEW MARGINAL CHANCES AT PICKING UP
SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AFTER THIS...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LOWERS WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AT ABOUT 2 K FT. IFR CIGS SHOULD
LINGER AT JHW...BUT CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WILL DEPEND ON HOW
EXTENSIVE THIS AREA OF CLOUDS IS. IF IT DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD BE
AROUND 1K FT...AND EITHER IN THE IFR OR MVFR CATEGORY. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS THAT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FOR TOO LONG THEN RADIATION FOG
WILL DEVELOP WITH IFR OR LOWER VSBY/CIGS POSSIBLE.
LOW MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT IN MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO (ROC/IAG)
WHERE THE STRATUS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...PATCHY IFR/MVFR CIGS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RAIN. MAINLY MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY AND AND
THEN DRIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MID WEEK WHICH WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
PICK UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND
IT. THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE WATERS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
125 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS BUT NOT FAR FROM
AVERAGE FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH MORE RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF. RADAR SHOWS SOME DRIZZLE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD LAST UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN DRIER
AIR MOVES IN.
THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS CLOUD COVER...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGESTING THAT MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO QUICK TO CLEAR SKIES
OUT. MID LEVEL DRYING IS JUST ON THE DOORSTEP TO THE NORTH...AND
THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD
AND DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS BY THIS EVENING. THE PROBLEM IS SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION WHICH IS
BEING AIDED BY LAKE MOISTURE AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL. NAM
BUFKIT AND THE HRRR CAPTURE THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT OFTEN
THIS GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR NOW THIS
MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE IS VERIFYING BETTER SO WILL TREND THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL NORTH TO
SOUTH CLEARING TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY REMAINING CLOUDY
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER IS LOW
GIVEN THE SHALLOW LOW MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A VERY DRY MID-LEVEL.
THIS WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPERATURES...SINCE CLOUD COVER WOULD
PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT A PARTIAL CLEARING IN MOST
AREAS...SO WILL FORECAST SOME COOLING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
FULL CLEARING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS.
ALSO...IF SKIES DO CLEAR OUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...WITH MODEST DAYTIME MIXING LIKELY TO
MIX OUT THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO CLOUD COVER AND
EVEN FORECAST SOME LIGHT QPF. MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DEEP
ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER LIGHT QPF CAN SOMETIMES BE
A SIGNAL BY MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME... A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM NEAR THE HUDSON BAY TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE NORTHERLY TURNING EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP A STREAM OF VERY DRY AIR/ PW VALUES
DOWN TO 0.15 INCHES/ MAKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL/ A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40/ BUT
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS WILL
PROMOTE LOWS IN THE 20S... AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RUN CLOSER TO NORMAL
AS LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CUT-OFF LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL FINALLY BE ON
THE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW... WITH AN AMPLE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE WARM FRONT /
DEVELOPING LLJ SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS A BAND OF RAINFALL THAT WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO
THE LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY. THE BY TUESDAY EVENING OR INTO WEDNESDAY
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK AND TIMING
BETWEEN THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN IMPROVING... THERE
REMAINS ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC. THE
ENSEMBLES / ESPECIALLY THE EC ENSEMBLES/ DEPICT AN INTERESTING BI-
MODAL DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING... WITH ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY LIKE THE GFS AND THE
OTHER HALF HOLD IT BACK UNTIL WEDNESDAY LIKE THE OPERATIONAL EC...
WITH FEW ENSEMBLES IN THE MIDDLE GROUND.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TIMING... BY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
THEN SETTLE EAST OF THE LAKES INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CUT-
OFF NATURE OF THIS LOW... THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL COLD AIR TAP FROM
HIGHER LATITUDES... AND MODELS ARE ONLY DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS DOWN
TO ABOUT -4 TO -7C IN THE CORE OF THE LOW. THESE MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
48F LAKE SURFACES... HOWEVER... EXPECT MAINLY THE HIGHER HILLS SOUTH
OF BUFFALO AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT
COULD REALLY SEE LAKE SHOWERS MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT... IT IS NOT LOOKING GREAT FOR BUFFALO TO SEE ITS
FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH THIS STORM... WHICH
TAKES US THROUGH DECEMBER 2ND AND 3RD (ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE
IT OUT YET). THE RECORD LATEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT KBUF IS
DECEMBER 3RD (WHICH OCCURRED IN 1899). IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH
THIS STORM SYSTEM WITHOUT MEASURING 0.1 INCHES OF SNOW... IT COULD
ACTUALLY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE GET ANOTHER CHANCE AT SNOW. AFTER
THIS STORM SYSTEM... RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES NORTH TO THE HUDSON BAY FROM THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES (GEFS THROUGH
360HRS AND THE CFS) INDICATE THAT THIS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FEATURE THAT COULD LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE 2ND
OR 3RD WEEK OF DECEMBER. SHOULD THIS COME TO FRUITION... WE WOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...
AND ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR REMAINING AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH PERHAPS ONLY A FEW MARGINAL CHANCES AT PICKING UP
SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
LOWERS WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO REMAIN TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION AT ABOUT 2 K FT. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS
SHOULD STAY SCATTERED TONIGHT...HOWEVER IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AT JHW...AND MAY ALSO LAST AT BUF/IAG/ROC
IF A LOW STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THAT IF SKIES
CLEAR OUT FOR TOO LONG THEN RADIATION FOG WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL
BE DRIVEN BY VERY SUBTLE FEATURES SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST MUCH IN ADVANCE.
LOW MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT IN MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO (ROC/IAG)
WHERE THE STRATUS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CHOPPY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH WINDS AND WAVES HAVE NOW
FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE LOWER LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES
DIMINISHING. THE FLAT WAVE ACTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
538 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL LIFT THROUGH MIDWEEK...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT AT 1930Z STRETCHES FROM SOUTH OF KPIT TO NEAR KAOO TO
NEAR KMDT. WIDESPREAD LARGE SCALE FORCING...ALBEIT RELATIVELY
WEAK...ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING
OFF FROM THE NORTHEAST AS FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NEXT WAVE PROGGED TO
SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. DID TAPER OFF SHOWERS TO DRIZZLE FROM THE
NE GOING TOWARD 00Z...WITH THE SW CONTINUING TO SEE A STEADIER
LIGHT RAIN.
RAIN LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE SW...THOUGH COULD BE
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE THIS EVE BEFORE A
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN WORKS EASTWARD WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE MASON/DIXON LINE. NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF CWA SHOULD BE DRY THOUGH
AS COLD FRONT AND RAIN BAND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH. TOUGH CALL ACROSS
THE NORTH FOR CLOUDS TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN...BUT
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD KEEP LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE
THROUGH LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE JUST A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE NE
HALF...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH POSS IN
THE SW.
COLDER AIR ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S...AND TEMPS SLOWLY COOLING ACROSS CENTRAL
SECTIONS BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTH WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S THIS EVENING. BY
SUNRISE...CAA WILL DROP TEMPS NORTH OF I-80 INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BRIGHTEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WORKS SOUTHWARD INTO PA. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHC OF LINGERING -SHRA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THRU LATE AM...THEN DRY WX ANTICIPATED FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY. ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS BTWN 0-4C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
FROM THE L40S OVR THE N MTNS...TO ARND 50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...STILL JUST A BIT ABV SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR/SEASONABLE WX EXPECTED SUN NITE/MONDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW AND
A WEAKENING RIDGE NEGATIVELY TILTED THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD
SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF IT AS RAIN. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
N MTNS. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE STORM CENTER MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS PA ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT BRISK WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO
-SHSN/FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHWEST. LAKE EFFECT
-SNSH/FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHES IN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND THE
ENSEMBLES DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THIS LENDS ITSELF TO MORE
UNCERTAINTY AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TIMING OF THE PATTERN.
HOWEVER A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD...BRINGING DRIER AND FAIR WEATHER.
THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY TUMULTUOUS WEATHER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
PA AND MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AT THE LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS. IN
GENERAL...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS FRONT STALLS
JUST SOUTH OF PA...BRINGING OCNL LGT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE.
MDL SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT IMPLY LIFR/IFR CIGS ARE A NEAR
CERTAINTY AT KJST TONIGHT. AT KBFD...A TOUGHER CALL...AS GRADUAL
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE SKIES TO CLEAR AS EARLY AS 03Z OR
AS LATE AS DAWN. ELSEWHERE...A DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
YIELD SOMEWHAT HIGHER CIGS OF ARND 1KFT AT KAOO/KUNV AND ARND 3KFT
AT LOWER ELEVATION KMDT/KLNS. NEAR TERM MDL SOUNDINGS/HRRR OUTPUT
SUGGEST MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDS AT KIPT ARND 02Z UPON
ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ON NORTHERLY FLOW.
CLEARING SKIES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS BUILD IN.
HOWEVER...MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS STUBBORN LOW CIGS MAY HOLD ON MOST
OF THE DAY AT KAOO AND ESP KJST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON NIGHT...LOW CIGS/RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SW.
TUE-WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY.
THU...LOW CIGS NW. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES IN AOO YESTERDAY...11/27...BROKE
THE RECORD OF 65 DEGREES SET IN 1988.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1015 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE COAST THIS MORNING. UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES...EXPECT THE INLAND AREA`S COOL TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THE COAST (ROUGHLY GALVESTON ISLAND OVER TO THE
HIGH ISLAND AREA)...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN COVERAGE SO FAR...AND NOT REAL CONFIDENT
THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH DEVELOPMENT TODAY. SO FOR THE UPDATE...WENT AHEAD
AND LOWERED THE AREA`S RAIN CHANCES AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE AND ASSOCIATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT READINGS. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WAS JUST REACHING THE COAST AT 11Z SO NOT QUITE
REACHING KGLS. EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
SINCE THE FRONT IS QUITE SLOW MOVING. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
RIDING OVER THE SHALLOW FRONTAL SURFACE SO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW CEILINGS. EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN CIGS TO MVFR BUT NOT LIKELY.
OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RA/DZ WITH IFR CIGS. KIAH AND KSGR ARE
ONLY SITES WITH LIFR CIGS WHICH SHOULD BECOME IFR LATER IN THE
MORNING. LOOK FOR IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MIGHT GET SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY BUT NAM/GFS STILL SUPPORT PREVAILING IFR CIGS.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN ISSUES FACING SE TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE
INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH THE SLOWLY
RECEDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. ANOTHER...
STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH SE TEXAS
ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
ALLOW A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE RAINFALL PATTERN DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE EAST SIDE OF METRO HOUSTON
AT 4 AM...HAVING PASSED THROUGH KIAH AND KHOU. THE FRONT WAS
ALREADY OFF THE COAST AT MATAGORDA BAY. THE 09Z RUN OF THE HRRR
MODEL SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT.
THIS MODEL DOES NOT MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH GALVESTON AND POINTS
EAST ALONG THE COAST UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING. IN ANY EVENT...THE
RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.
BETTER COVERAGE WAS IN ADVANCE OF THE 925 TROUGH WHICH THE HRRR
KEEPS BASICALLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR WACO TO JUST WEST OF
CALDWELL TODAY AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THAT THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO THE
NORTHWEST...THINK THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM LIVINGSTON TO HUNTSVILLE TO NEAR COLUMBUS. THIS
WILL CONTRAST TO AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH OR LESS TOWARD THE
COAST.
LESS OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WENT WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR BOTH
PERIODS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT THUNDER THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MARINE...
BUOYS STILL SHOW 7FT SWELL WITH 10 SEC PERIODS. EXPECT THESE SWELLS
TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH PROBABLY SOME SUBSIDING SINCE WINDS WILL BE
LESS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
APPROACHING GALVESTON BAY AND MAY HAVE JUST PUSHED THROUGH MATAGORDA
BAY. FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH
TODAY. LATEST HRRR AND WRF ARW/NMM ALL HAVE THE FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPING SOUTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTH AT 10 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH INCREASED NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT. CAUTION OR ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
TIDES...ARE STILL ELEVATED ABOUT 1.2 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WINDS HAVE SLACKED OFF RESULTING IN MOST TIDE GAGES NOW SHOWING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN TIDE LEVELS. OVERALL TIDE LEVELS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH MORNING WITH LOW TIDE. HIGH TIDE ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES
OF GALVESTON AND BOLIVAR IS STILL AROUND 6PM THIS EVENING.
THINKING THAT TIDES MAY ONLY BE ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WOULD MAKE THE OVERALL WATER LEVEL ABOUT 3 FEET ABOVE MLLW INSTEAD
OF 3.5 FEET RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TIDE LEVELS AND ISSUE ADVISORIES IF NEEDED BUT
MORE CONFIDENT IN NOT HAVING AN ADVISORY THIS EVENING.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 47 43 50 47 58 / 60 60 60 50 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 57 50 60 53 63 / 60 40 40 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 59 66 59 64 / 50 30 30 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
929 AM PST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A REX BLOCK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN B.C. AND AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE DRY PATTERN IS LOOKING LIKE IT MAY START TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN INITIAL DYING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO BECOME
EVEN MORE ACTIVE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DECENT
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATER IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A REX BLOCK CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN B.C. AND AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN DECENT 30 TO 40
KT NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST AND
BRISK OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS...CURRENTLY AROUND 7 MB THROUGH THE
GORGE. THUS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH A BIT MORE WIND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND STRONGER WINDS
IN THE GORGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ANOTHER MORNING WITH LITTLE OR NO
FOG OR FREEZING FOG IN THE AREA. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME
COLUMBIA BASIN STRATUS DEVELOP IN THE EAST END OF THE GORGE. THE
COOL DRY AIR MASS HAS A LOT OF TEMPS IN THE 20S THIS MORNING...WITH
EUGENE AND CORVALLIS AT 19 SO FAR THIS MORNING.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT THEN THE BLOCK
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL
BEGIN TO LOSE THE WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE OF A GAP FLOW EVENT...ESPECIALLY CONCENTRATED THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE MORE LOW CLOUDS NEAR
HOOD RIVER...AND WE WILL START TO SEE MORE AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING
FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL...SO LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS
WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST 3 MORNINGS OR SO.
AN EXCEPT MAY BE THAT THE COAST WILL START TO WARM A BIT MONDAY
MORNING.
MOS HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT LOW...AND WE STILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF GETTING CLOSE TO 50 TODAY INLAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WINDIER AREAS IN THE NORTH. WE MAY START TO LOSE A FEW DEGREES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THOUGH.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE FIRST WEAKENING/SPLITTING SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS HAVE NOW BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO OF MODEL
RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING WELL NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND NORTH B.C.
COAST. THE WEAKENING/SPLITTING/DYING SOUTHERN END OF A FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST MONDAY MORNING...MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE AT THE COAST...DWINDLING INLAND AS THE SYSTEM FALLS
APART.
WE COULD SEE A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT THE COAST AND ON THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE...BUT INLAND LOOKS LIKE A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM IS THAT IT WILL AGAIN BE
VERY COLD MONDAY MORNING INLAND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL THAT COULD BE MIXED WINTER
TYPE PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS IS IN THE GORGE...AND THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE MOSTLY SNOW NEAR HOOD RIVER. BUT SOME THREAT
OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL. THE LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS IS ON THE DRY SIDE...SO AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...AND
IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS POINT. FREEZING RAIN LOOKS UNLIKELY AT
THIS POINT EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR HOOD RIVER AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE
COOL BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOSTLY END AFTER THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE
CASCADES. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...A SPLITTING AND WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE GORGE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS THE PACIFIC SHOWS THAT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC REMAINS ACTIVE AND ENERGETIC WEATHER WISE...SO THE IDEA OF
THE MODELS BRINGING IN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SYSTEMS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS REASONABLE. CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING OF SPECIFIC SYSTEMS IS NOT HIGH...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD
IS FAIRLY HIGH. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS ONE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER LATE IN THE WEEK. SNOW LEVELS ARE
NOT TOO LOW WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...BUT DROP BEHIND THE NEXT
FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. TOLLESON
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EASTERLY GORGE OUTFLOW
WILL BRING GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS FOR KTTD. KONP AWOS WILL APPARENTLY
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY AND NOT LIKELY MUCH OF AN
ISSUE UNTIL AFTER 30/00Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR. WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE RWY 10 L/R APPROACHES FROM GUSTY COLUMBIA GORGE
OUTFLOW. /JBONK
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
WEEK. WITH THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE A TAD WEAKER AND SLOWER THEN THE
CURRENT SOLUTIONS SUGGEST. HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THE COLD
FRONT MAY PRODUCE 15 TO 25 KT SOUTH WINDS AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
WATERS MONDAY MORNING. THE SECOND FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OR POSSIBLY GALES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL AROUND 4 FT WILL SUBSIDE TODAY WITH
ANOTHER LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY WITH SEAS LIKELY
EXCEEDING 10 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL
SUPPORT 10 TO 15 FT SEAS MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TJ /MH
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
411 AM PST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will produce light winds and a strong
temperature inversion over the Inland Northwest through early next
week. Low clouds and fog will become common by Sunday or Monday.
Air stagnation may also lead to areas of decreased air quality.
A frontal system is expected to bring a chance of wintry
precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: High pressure continues to intensify over the
Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia. Air Stagnation
Advisories remain in effect through noon Monday, and may be
extended into midweek once we coordinate with air quality agencies
on Monday. Mid-level subsidence will further strengthen the
inversion over our region today making for a very difficult
temperature forecast. The light winds and cold overnight
temperatures will cause many lowland areas to be cooler than
yesterday while higher elevations will be several degrees warmer,
especially over north central and northeast Washington. Elevations
above 3000 feet will have the potential to warm into the 40s this
afternoon while nearby valleys may struggle to reach 30. To
complicate matters areas of fog and low clouds have expanded over
the Palouse, L-C Valley, and portions of northeast Washington. The
fog and low clouds will likely expand through mid-morning, and a
dense fog advisory may be needed today. Since it is the
Thanksgiving weekend, there will be more motorists on the road. As
our air mass continues to moisten through evaporative and
sublimation processes, fog and low clouds should continue to
increase tonight. Places that have fog and low clouds in the
evening and through the night will remain warmer than spots that
keep clear skies. So low temperature forecasting will be a big
challenge with some big bust potential.
Sunday and Monday: Fog and low clouds will become more widespread
Sunday into Monday. Look for our diurnal temperature spreads to
shrink as more of the Basin and surrounding lowlands becomes
enshrouded in low clouds. Dreary and chilly winter weather we
come to expect this time of year. /GKoch
Tuesday through Friday...Models are in good agreement of the ridge
shifting east allowing a couple short wave troughs to pass through
the Inland NW. The main challenge during this forecast period will
be precipitation type. Initially...cold air is expected to be in
place allowing for snow levels down to the valley floors.
The first system arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models do
not agree on how well this will hold together by the time it
reaches North Idaho as energy splits as it moves inland.
Confidence is highest for the Cascades receiving light to moderate
snow amounts with a chance for light snow across the remainder of
the area. There is a warm nose that extends from Moses Lake to
Ritzville south to the Oregon border which could bring a brief
period of freezing rain to these areas. Given the first system is
weak with little wind...is not expected to completely mix out the
cold air in the valleys. This leads to the next precip type
challenge Wednesday night into Thursday when the next system
arrives.
Mild southwest flow Thursday morning result in the models warming
850mb temps to 1-3C or warmer from Moses Lake to Deer Park to
Sandpoint southward while cold air damming into the East Slopes
keeps cold air in place. This should result in snow for the East
Slopes as well as the Okanogan Valley and Highlands and possibly
Wenatchee. Pockets of freezing rain are possible in the Columbia
Basin, Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area, and northern valleys depending
on how much low level sub-freezing air remains and timing of
precip. If precip holds off til Thursday afternoon then this
threat would be greatly diminished. Overall confidence in freezing
rain this far out is low but the potential exists. Southeast winds
on the palouse should mix out the cold air quickly resulting in
just rain for Pullman and Lewiston. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Fog and low clouds over the Palouse and Lower Columbia
Basin continues to expand early this morning. As of 3 AM, the
latest satellite trends (fog channel) suggest fog or low stratus
will move into Moses Lake by sunrise. With the light wind regime
and strong inversion, Pullman could be in 1/2 mile or less for a
good portion of the day. The NAM boundary layer moisture prog and
the HRRR surface visibility prog suggests KGEG and KSFF will be on
the fringe of the fog bank today with fog overspreading the metro
tonight. Even the highest resolution models struggle with shallow
surface moisture so forecast confidence is low. /GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 15 28 17 29 19 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 30 17 29 18 31 19 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Pullman 27 19 30 21 32 21 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Lewiston 28 22 31 23 33 24 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Colville 35 13 32 16 32 17 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Sandpoint 30 17 30 18 31 19 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Kellogg 30 14 32 17 32 20 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Moses Lake 29 19 28 21 29 20 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Wenatchee 33 22 28 22 29 21 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Omak 30 18 27 19 28 19 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Monday for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis
and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Monday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses
Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-
Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper
Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-
Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
337 PM MST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 28 2015
SNOW IS TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH
THIS MORNING. POPS TONIGHT ARE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SIERRA MADRES
AND SNOWY RANGES (30-40 PERCENT). WITH THE SNOW PACK AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH MOST PLACES
SEEING SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. ALONG WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ALONG THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A PARCEL OF MIDLVL ENERGY
SWINGING SOUTH ALONG SOUTHERN COLORADO AND PUSHING THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSTRAINED FURTHER SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION SUNDAY EVENING/MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND BECOME BREEZY. THE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF ARLINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE COULD POSSIBLY SEE
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 28 2015
THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW
MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NEXT WEEK AND THE WIND POTENTIAL IN
ARLINGTON ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY-SATURDAY:
THE MODELS ARE FINALLY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING EAST INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD
INTO THE ROCKIES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
DOES DEPART...THE 800-750MB HEIGHT GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP A BIT
BETWEEN CRAIG CO. AND CASPER WY. AS A RESULT...WE BUMPED UP WINDS
A BIT IN THAT REGION AND THE SLOPES EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEXT WEEK.
THE ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DECENT
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD YIELD TO MAX TEMPERATURES
BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL (40S AND 50S). ALTHOUGH...AT
THIS POINT THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM THE NORM. THIS COULD CHANGE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES. WE DID
TWEAK TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE SUPERBLEND AND
CLOSER TO THE EKDMOS (NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST SYSTEM ENSEMBLES).
THE NEXT COOL DOWN APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PUSHES INTO THE
ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW NEAR CYS.
EAST OF THIS AREA...WE WILL SEE BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOP DURING THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS MAY ALSO REMAIN IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CEILINGS MAY
DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AFTER SUNSET DUE TO PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND COOLING TAKING PLACE ABOVE THE CLOUD
TOP. WE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED FREEZING FOG YET...BUT THE HRRR DOES
SUGGEST THIS MAY OCCUR AROUND CYS/LAR AFTER 6PM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 28 2015
NO CONCERNS BASED ON EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITIES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF/KC
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1110 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. STARTING TO SEE SNOW LET UP IN AREAS
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS MOVE INTO
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
OVERALL EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015
TODAY...SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING TODAY WITH
A LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES...PRODUCING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES...WITH GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE. PERHAPS 1
TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AS
MENTIONED BY OUR DAY SHIFT TEAM YESTERDAY...SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FROM KIMBALL TO SIDNEY PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS.
TONIGHT...DRYING OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
PASSAGE BUT STILL COLD WITH THE AIRMASS FULLY ENTRENCHED.
SUNDAY...UPPER LOW SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING WITH
ANOTHER SPOKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL
COLORADO...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO OUR
SOUTH. WITH LIMITED LIFT OF OUR RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS...SNOW
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE SLIM. CONTINUED COLD WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
ONLY -12 CELSIUS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR COUNTIES AS THE 500-300 MB AND 700-500 MB LAYER
QUASIGEOSTROPHIC LIFT INDICATES...HOWEVER...LIFT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015
THE TREND IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS WARMER AND DRIER AS THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY EXITS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...TWO VORT MAXES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
ON MONDAY WHILE IT REMAINS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW THE STRONGEST ENERGY AND LIFT WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. DRIER AIR
WRAPPING IN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SNOWFALL TO
AN END MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC STRENGTHENING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WESTERN-MOST
VORT MAX. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE 800-700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS. THE COMBINATION OF FEATURES SHOULD BRING
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE WIND PRONE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY WINDS. THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ASHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO SPLIT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS NOT
EXACTLY A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR PRECIP...BUT A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW NEAR CYS.
EAST OF THIS AREA...WE WILL SEE BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOP DURING THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS MAY ALSO REMAIN IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CEILINGS MAY
DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AFTER SUNSET DUE TO PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND COOLING TAKING PLACE ABOVE THE CLOUD
TOP. WE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED FREEZING FOG YET...BUT THE HRRR DOES
SUGGEST THIS MAY OCCUR AROUND CYS/LAR AFTER 6PM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015
NO CONCERNS BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS AND RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITIES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FINCH
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN