Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/26/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1103 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
Weak high pressure centered over Iowa southeast thru central
Illinois will drift to the east of the area by Tuesday morning.
Satellite data indicates quite a bit of high level clouds
streaming in from Iowa early this evening with quite a bit of
high and mid level clouds seen further northwest to the Dakotas.
Quite a bit of moisture added to the boundary layer today from
the melting that occurred with the mild temperatures. Main
question overnight is what affect the band of cirrus has, if any,
on the potential for fog development as winds will be quite
light under the surface ridge axis.
What would otherwise be an excellent setup for fog is still in
question this hour as forecast soundings off the RAP were not
nearly as aggressive with the fog threat as the HRRR which
highlights an area just east of a Bloomington to Decatur line with
some low visibilities by morning. Still appears there may be enough
breaks in the cirrus to allow good radiational cooling overnight
and at least patchy fog by early morning, especially along and
north of the I-74 corridor. The current forecast reflects this
quite well so other than some minor tweaks to the hourly temps,
the rest of the forecast is in good shape. No evening ZFP update
will be needed at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
Main short-term forecast concern continues to be potential for fog
development tonight as high pressure slides overhead and winds go
light/variable. Several factors point to at least patchy fog,
including nearly calm winds after sunset and increasing boundary
layer moisture due to snow melt. However, the possible fly-in-the-
ointment will be increasing high clouds currently seen on visible
satellite imagery streaming from the Dakotas into Iowa.
All models suggest these clouds will spread into Illinois late
this afternoon then persist through much of the night. Whether
they will be thick enough to limit radiational cooling and prevent
widespread fog is still in question. Several models such as the
NAM and GFS indicate little or no restriction to visby tonight,
while the HRRR is showing fog developing from mid-evening through
the overnight hours. At this point, will mention patchy fog over the
snow cover, generally along/north of the I-74 corridor. Overnight
lows will be in the middle to upper 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
Upper level ridging will build into central IL Tuesday providing for
dry conditions with some mid and high cloud cover. The warming trend
will continue slowly with highs reaching the low to mid 40s I-74
northward where snow cover remains...to the low to mid 50s south of
I-70. Lows Tuesday night should drop to only the mid to upper 30s as
increased winds and cloud cover prevent further cooling at the
surface.
By Wednesday...this ridge will slip east of IL allowing increased
southerly flow and a plume of Gulf moisture to nudge eastward into
Illinois. The result will be a continued warming trend with highs
reaching around 50 north of I-74 to the upper 50s from I-70
southward. Chances for precipitation will be arriving in western
portions of the state by evening. 12Z models currently keep this
precipitation light until Thursday/Thanksgiving evening...then
spread heavier amounts around 0.50 inches per 6 hours across the
state from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Total rainfall
amounts look to be around 1 to 1.25 inches southeast of Champaign-
Decatur, and 1.5 to 1.75 inches to the northwest. Could see a mix of
light snow with the light rain over central IL Friday night before
ending. Highs Thursday should be in the mid 50s to around 60,
cooling to the low to mid 40s over the IL river valley to the mid to
upper 50s in southeast IL.
High pressure will build into the Midwest region on Saturday for a
good chance for dry conditions, although GFS is quicker returning
moisture back into central IL and perhaps some precipitation will
return Saturday night into Sunday if this turns out. Chance for
precipitation with this next system looks to linger through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
Coverage of fog the main challenge, especially where there was
significant snow melt today, mainly at the PIA, BMI and CMI
TAF sites. Still seeing quite a bit of mid and high level cloud
cover moving across the area late this evening and that is
expected to continue overnight. That may effectively keep any
widespread fog from forming early Tuesday morning but will hold
with the MVFR vsbys at our 3 northern TAF sites. Any fog that does
develop should dissipate by 15z Tuesday with VFR conditions
expected into Tuesday evening. Light and variable surface winds
tonight will become southeast at 10 to 15 kts by mid to late Tue
morning and continue that way into the afternoon hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1243 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BE SLIDING UP TO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER INTO TOMORROW MORNING. FOG IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER
50S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S IN THE NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
COMBINATION OF SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS SW CANADA AND UPR LOW DIGGING SE
INTO THE PAC NW WILL STRENGTHEN RIDGE ALOFT MOVG INTO THE GRTLKS AND
PROVIDE FAIR WX ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL GET EARLY THIS MORNING AND HOW LONG IT
WILL PERSIST. DENSE FOG CONFINED TO RURAL AREAS ATTM AND VSBYS AT
THOSE AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN SO SUSPECT THE FOG IS
RATHER SHALLOW. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AND HANDLE WITH AN SPS. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES/HEAVY
FROST ASSOCIATED WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY ALSO LEAD TO
SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS. THE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK BUT
EXPECT IT TO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. LATEST HRRR IS FCSTG LOW
VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY BUT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN
THIS REGARD... SO HAVE MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY FCST FOR THIS AFTN
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE U30S/L40S. SFC GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PREVENT
OR AT LEAST LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES... LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE U20S/L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP FOR MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WELL
INTO THE 50S DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL ON TARGET TO SINK ESE THROUGH
THE FORECAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FOCUS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
TROUGH TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH
POPS/MODERATE QPF WARRANTED GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN PRE-
FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. COOLER/DRIER AIR THEN FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
00Z ECMWF/GFS TRENDED TOWARD LESS LEFTOVER BLOCKING/CONFLUENCE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY ALLOWING
WAA RAIN TO OVERSPREAD BY SUNDAY IN RENEWED SW FLOW. THIS PCPN WOULD
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE/WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF A LARGE/CUT-OFF WESTERN CONUS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY.
BUMPED UP POPS ACCORDINGLY AND INCREASED MIN TEMPS FROM 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS/INIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
CONDITIONS STEADILY IMPROVING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS. OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBN SHOWS LIFR VISBYS RAPIDLY
IMPROVING AND CIGS CLEARING OUT...SO EXPECT AN HOUR OR TWO OF IFR
VISBYS BEFORE MVFR PREVAILS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER DROP
OF VISBYS POSSIBLE AROUND 00Z...WITH IFR VISBYS RETURNING TO KSBN.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE LOW IN THIS SCENARIO AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ON IFR IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AFTER 09Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE LAST HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...NG
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1134 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BE SLIDING UP TO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER INTO TOMORROW MORNING. FOG IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER
50S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S IN THE NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
REPORTS FROM ASOS/AWOS SITES IN OUR CWA SUGGESTS DENSE FOG
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS ISSUED A
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 900AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FOG AND
POTENTIAL ICY SPOTS DUE TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
COMBINATION OF SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS SW CANADA AND UPR LOW DIGGING SE
INTO THE PAC NW WILL STRENGTHEN RIDGE ALOFT MOVG INTO THE GRTLKS AND
PROVIDE FAIR WX ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL GET EARLY THIS MORNING AND HOW LONG IT
WILL PERSIST. DENSE FOG CONFINED TO RURAL AREAS ATTM AND VSBYS AT
THOSE AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN SO SUSPECT THE FOG IS
RATHER SHALLOW. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AND HANDLE WITH AN SPS. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES/HEAVY
FROST ASSOCIATED WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY ALSO LEAD TO
SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS. THE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK BUT
EXPECT IT TO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. LATEST HRRR IS FCSTG LOW
VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY BUT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN
THIS REGARD... SO HAVE MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY FCST FOR THIS AFTN
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE U30S/L40S. SFC GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PREVENT
OR AT LEAST LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES... LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE U20S/L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP FOR MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WELL
INTO THE 50S DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL ON TARGET TO SINK ESE THROUGH
THE FORECAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FOCUS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
TROUGH TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH
POPS/MODERATE QPF WARRANTED GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN PRE-
FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. COOLER/DRIER AIR THEN FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
00Z ECMWF/GFS TRENDED TOWARD LESS LEFTOVER BLOCKING/CONFLUENCE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY ALLOWING
WAA RAIN TO OVERSPREAD BY SUNDAY IN RENEWED SW FLOW. THIS PCPN WOULD
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE/WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF A LARGE/CUT-OFF WESTERN CONUS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY.
BUMPED UP POPS ACCORDINGLY AND INCREASED MIN TEMPS FROM 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS/INIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
FOG WAS CAUSING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A SLOW MIX OUT DUE TO WK WIND FIELDS AND SNOW
COVER TODAY WITH CONDITIONS PRBLY NOT BECOMING VFR UNTIL MIDDAY.
SELY WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER TONIGHT BUT WITH MELTING SNOW
ADDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC BASED INVERSION STRENGTHENING
DUE TO WAA ALOFT... EXPECT VSBYS WILL FALL TO AT LEAST MVFR BY
WED MORNING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
633 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDING A WARMING TREND. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S... WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
REPORTS FROM ASOS/AWOS SITES IN OUR CWA SUGGESTS DENSE FOG
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS ISSUED A
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 900AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FOG AND
POTENTIAL ICY SPOTS DUE TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
COMBINATION OF SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS SW CANADA AND UPR LOW DIGGING SE
INTO THE PAC NW WILL STRENGTHEN RIDGE ALOFT MOVG INTO THE GRTLKS AND
PROVIDE FAIR WX ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL GET EARLY THIS MORNING AND HOW LONG IT
WILL PERSIST. DENSE FOG CONFINED TO RURAL AREAS ATTM AND VSBYS AT
THOSE AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN SO SUSPECT THE FOG IS
RATHER SHALLOW. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AND HANDLE WITH AN SPS. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES/HEAVY
FROST ASSOCIATED WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY ALSO LEAD TO
SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS. THE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK BUT
EXPECT IT TO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. LATEST HRRR IS FCSTG LOW
VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY BUT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN
THIS REGARD... SO HAVE MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY FCST FOR THIS AFTN
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE U30S/L40S. SFC GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PREVENT
OR AT LEAST LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES... LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE U20S/L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP FOR MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WELL
INTO THE 50S DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL ON TARGET TO SINK ESE THROUGH
THE FORECAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FOCUS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
TROUGH TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH
POPS/MODERATE QPF WARRANTED GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN PRE-
FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. COOLER/DRIER AIR THEN FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
00Z ECMWF/GFS TRENDED TOWARD LESS LEFTOVER BLOCKING/CONFLUENCE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY ALLOWING
WAA RAIN TO OVERSPREAD BY SUNDAY IN RENEWED SW FLOW. THIS PCPN WOULD
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE/WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF A LARGE/CUT-OFF WESTERN CONUS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY.
BUMPED UP POPS ACCORDINGLY AND INCREASED MIN TEMPS FROM 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS/INIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
FOG WAS CAUSING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A SLOW MIX OUT DUE TO WK WIND FIELDS AND SNOW
COVER TODAY WITH CONDITIONS PRBLY NOT BECOMING VFR UNTIL MIDDAY.
SELY WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER TONIGHT BUT WITH MELTING SNOW
ADDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC BASED INVERSION STRENGTHENING
DUE TO WAA ALOFT... EXPECT VSBYS WILL FALL TO AT LEAST MVFR BY
WED MORNING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ005>009-012>017-020-022>025-032.
MI...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ079>081.
OH...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
408 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDING A WARMING TREND. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S... WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
COMBINATION OF SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS SW CANADA AND UPR LOW DIGGING SE
INTO THE PAC NW WILL STRENGTHEN RIDGE ALOFT MOVG INTO THE GRTLKS AND
PROVIDE FAIR WX ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL GET EARLY THIS MORNING AND HOW LONG IT
WILL PERSIST. DENSE FOG CONFINED TO RURAL AREAS ATTM AND VSBYS AT
THOSE AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN SO SUSPECT THE FOG IS
RATHER SHALLOW. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AND HANDLE WITH AN SPS. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES/HEAVY
FROST ASSOCIATED WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY ALSO LEAD TO
SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS. THE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK BUT
EXPECT IT TO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. LATEST HRRR IS FCSTG LOW
VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY BUT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN
THIS REGARD... SO HAVE MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY FCST FOR THIS AFTN
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE U30S/L40S. SFC GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PREVENT
OR AT LEAST LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES... LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE U20S/L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP FOR MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WELL
INTO THE 50S DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL ON TARGET TO SINK ESE THROUGH
THE FORECAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FOCUS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
TROUGH TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH
POPS/MODERATE QPF WARRANTED GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN PRE-
FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. COOLER/DRIER AIR THEN FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
00Z ECMWF/GFS TRENDED TOWARD LESS LEFTOVER BLOCKING/CONFLUENCE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY ALLOWING
WAA RAIN TO OVERSPREAD BY SUNDAY IN RENEWED SW FLOW. THIS PCPN WOULD
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE/WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF A LARGE/CUT-OFF WESTERN CONUS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY.
BUMPED UP POPS ACCORDINGLY AND INCREASED MIN TEMPS FROM 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS/INIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 1216 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG FORMING OVER FAR NRN INDIANA/SRN MI EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALSO SOME STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE LAKE.
EXPECT SOME EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS
MOVG INTO NRN IL SHOULD REACH NRN INDIANA BEFORE DAYBREAK...
LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONTD FCST OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPO IFR VSBY AT SBN
BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. WK MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
404 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDING A WARMING TREND. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S... WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
COMBINATION OF SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS SW CANADA AND UPR LOW DIGGING SE
INTO THE PAC NW WILL STRENGTHEN RIDGE ALOFT MOVG INTO THE GRTLKS AND
PROVIDE FAIR WX ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL GET EARLY THIS MORNING AND HOW LONG IT
WILL PERSIST. DENSE FOG CONFINED TO RURAL AREAS ATTM AND VSBYS AT
THOSE AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN SO SUSPECT THE FOG IS
RATHER SHALLOW. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AND HANDLE WITH AN SPS. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES/HEAVY
FROST ASSOCIATED WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY ALSO LEAD TO
SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS. THE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK BUT
EXPECT IT TO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. LATEST HRRR IS FCSTG LOW
VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY BUT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN
THIS REGARD... SO HAVE MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY FCST FOR THIS AFTN
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE U30S/L40S. SFC GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PREVENT
OR AT LEAST LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES... LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE U20S/L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP FOR MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WELL
INTO THE 50S DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL ON TARGET TO SINK ESE THROUGH
THE FORECAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FOCUS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
TROUGH TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH
POPS/MODERATE QPF WARRANTED GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN PRE-
FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. COOLER/DRIER AIR THEN FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
00Z ECMWF/GFS TRENDED TOWARD LESS LEFTOVER BLOCKING/CONFLUENCE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING WAA RAIN TO OVERSPREAD BY SUNDAY IN RENEWED SW FLOW. THIS
PCPN (MOST LIKELY RAIN) WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD
SHORTWAVE/WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE/CUT-OFF
WESTERN CONUS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. BUMPED UP POPS ACCORDINGLY
AND INCREASED MIN TEMPS FROM 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS/INIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 1216 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG FORMING OVER FAR NRN INDIANA/SRN MI EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALSO SOME STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE LAKE.
EXPECT SOME EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS
MOVG INTO NRN IL SHOULD REACH NRN INDIANA BEFORE DAYBREAK...
LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONTD FCST OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPO IFR VSBY AT SBN
BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. WK MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR RDG OVER
THE PLAINS EXPANDING INTO THE GREAT LKS. 00Z-12Z H5 HGT RISES OVER
MUCH OF THE W HALF OF THE GREAT LKS WERE AOA 100M AND AS MUCH AS
130M AT APX AND DTX. THE 12Z INL/GRB/APX RAOBS SHOW SHARP SUBSIDENCE
INVRN IN THE H8-85 LYR. DESPITE TEMPS AT THIS ELEVATED INVRN BASE AS
LO AS -10C...RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE SUB INVRN LYR AS DEPICTED ON
THE INL AND GRB RAOBS HAS GREATLY RESTRICTED LES EVEN OVER THE E...
WHERE THE LLVL NW FLOW WAS WEAKLY CYC THIS MRNG AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
RDG AXIS OVER THE WRN CWA EXTENDING TO THE N OF STRONGER HI CENTER
IN THE TN RIVER VALLEY. THE LO CLDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG OVER THE W AND SCENTRAL. EVEN WHERE THE LO
CLDS HAVE DSPTD...A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID/UPR LVL MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONGER WAA IN THE NRN PLAINS IS SUPPORTING AREA OF MID/HI CLDS
SPILLING OVER THE RDG INTO THE WRN LKS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE IMPACT OF
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW THAT IS FCST TO DEVELOP TNGT/WED BETWEEN SFC
HI PRES RDG FCST TO MOVE E/BUILD UNDER THE EXPANDING UPR RDG AND
FALLING MSLP IN THE PLAINS TO THE E OF A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE W.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES SHIFTING E INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC STATES
IS FCST TO BUILD TO ABOUT 1040MB BY 12Z WED. IN CONCERT WITH DVLPG
LO PRES TROF ALONG THE BORDER BTWN MN AND THE DAKOTAS...THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS IS FCST TO TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY...
WITH S H925 WINDS INCRSG UP TO 35-40KTS ACCENTUATED BY DVLPG PRES
FALL CENTER OVER NW ONTARIO. MODELS SHOW AN AXIS OF HIER RH IN THE
SFC-H9 LYR RETURNING INTO THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNGT WITHIN THIS
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AND UNDER LINGERING LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
INVRN. WITH AN UPSOPE LLVL SSE FLOW... MAINTAINED SOME FCST -DZ/
-FZDZ IN THIS AREA. LIMITED DEPTH OF RETURNING MOIST LYR AND/OR
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WL RESULT IN A DRY FCST FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. LO
TEMPS MAY BE TRICKY TNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. IF THE LO CLDS
LINGERING THERE DSPT THIS EVNG WITH THE PASSING OF THE SFC HI/MORE
ACYC FLOW BEFORE THE SLY FLOW PICKS UP...TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY
BEFORE WINDS PICK UP OVERNGT. SUSPECT THE LO CLDS WL BE RESILIENT
ENUF AND INCOMING MID/HI CLDS WL LIMIT THIS EVNG TEMP DROP...SO DID
NOT GO TOO LO WITH FCST MIN TEMPS. INCRSG S WINDS/MORE CLDS WL
LIKELY BRING RISING TEMPS OVERNGT.
WED...STEADY/GUSTY S SLOWLY VEERING SW LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO SLOWLY
INCRS MSTR DEPTH THRU THE DAY. IN CONCERT WITH SOME WEAK DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RA OR DZ. BUT GENERAL DRYNESS OF
THE FCST AIRMASS IN THE MID LVLS/DGZ AND ONLY WEAK FORCING SUGGESTS
ANY PCPN WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE. SO MODEL QPF IS RATHER LGT AND
SPOTTY AND FOCUSED MAINLY AWAY FM THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
ALTHOUGH THE CLDS WL HOLD DOWN MAX TEMPS...READINGS NOT FAR FM 40 WL
STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
BY 00Z THURSDAY THE INITIAL N END OF THE ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL
BE SET UP FROM N ONTARIO THROUGH THE W HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXTENDING IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH KS TO
THE S LOW OVER NE NM. THE NAM IS HINTING AT SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE
PRECIP ACROSS THE N CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM BIG BAY
THROUGH NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING TO GWINN WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE N END OF THE BROAD 500MBTROUGH STRETCHING FROM N CENTRAL CANADA
DOWN TO THE MAIN LOW MOVING ON SHORE IN OR/N CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP A CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE W THIRD OF THE NATION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP TO THE E HALF OF UPPER MI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AS THE N END OF THE 500MB TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS
MANITOBA TO E MT. WILL KEEP THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
GOING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
BETTER MOISTURE SNEAKS IN. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
THE LARGEST THREAT PERIOD FOR MAINLY CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF SLEEP S CENTRAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE
DOORSTEP...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW W THURSDAY MORNING AND HOLDING
OFF FAR E UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE STILL
MORE ROBUST ON THE W PRECIP PUSH. THE OVERALL PICTURE IS
SIMILAR...MAKING THE FCST TRICKY. THE 12Z ECMWF DID COME IN WITH A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP THOUGH OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI...IN SOME PLACES
CLOSE TO 0.2IN LESS. A BLENDED SOLUTION STILL LOOKS GOOD...WITH A
SLANT TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT BEGINS TO COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS.
THE 500MB TROUGH AND COLDEST 850MB TEMPS OF -5 TO -8C TRAVERSES
UPPER MI FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS STILL THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. THE
FAVORABLE N-NNW SNOW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SLOWLY SWITCH TO A MORE
W DIRECTION LATER FRIDAY WITH SNOW ENDING W TO E AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE LARGE 500MB LOW OVER THE W U.S. BEGINS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE N AND
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF...WITH A NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE N/WI
BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WAS MORE WRAPPED UP
BUT WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND A WEAKER SFC REFLECTION. THE
SFC HIGH REMAINED STRONG OVER THE REGION THROUGH...WITH 12-24 HOUR
SLOWER RESPONSE COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME IN MUCH MORE
IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS WITH THE NEXT SFC LOW OVERHEAD AT 12Z
MONDAY. WILL SEE IF THIS BETTER CONSISTENCY CAN HOLD UP THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
AFTN...THE NEAR SFC AIR IS DRY ENUF PER LOCAL RAOBS/OBSVD SFC DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3
LOCATIONS. AN INCRSG S WIND TNGT WL RESULT IN LLWS OVERNGT AND DRAW
MOISTER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. BEST CHC FOR A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT SAW...WHERE THE
EXPECTED SSE WIND WL UPSLOPE. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE EXPECTED FLOW
AT IWD AND CMX MAKE IFR CIGS LESS CERTAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MRNG WITH SOME DAYTIME WARMING ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD AND SAW LOCATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME S AND INCREASE
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING HI
PRES TO THE E AND FALLING PRES IN THE PLAINS. OPTED TO UPGRADE GALE
WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE E HALF TO A WARNING FOR WED INTO THE
EVENING...WHEN THE GRADIENT/WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. EXPECT
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW AFTER A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE ON WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF TRAILING HI
PRES WILL LEAD TO WINDS UP TO 30 KTS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL GALE
FORCE WINDS INTO THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO FRI
AS THIS HI PRES EDGES CLOSER. ALTHOUGH W WINDS COULD INCREASE UP TO
25-30KT AGAIN ON SAT UNDER A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HI
CENTERED JUST TO THE SW AND ANOTHER LO PRES TROF SWINGING THRU
NORTHERN ONTARIO...A WEAKER GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ON SUN AFTER THE TROF EXITS INTO QUEBEC AND THE HI PRES
RIDGE BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
335 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR RDG OVER
THE PLAINS EXPANDING INTO THE GREAT LKS. 00Z-12Z H5 HGT RISES OVER
MUCH OF THE W HALF OF THE GREAT LKS WERE AOA 100M AND AS MUCH AS
130M AT APX AND DTX. THE 12Z INL/GRB/APX RAOBS SHOW SHARP SUBSIDENCE
INVRN IN THE H8-85 LYR. DESPITE TEMPS AT THIS ELEVATED INVRN BASE AS
LO AS -10C...RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE SUB INVRN LYR AS DEPICTED ON
THE INL AND GRB RAOBS HAS GREATLY RESTRICTED LES EVEN OVER THE E...
WHERE THE LLVL NW FLOW WAS WEAKLY CYC THIS MRNG AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
RDG AXIS OVER THE WRN CWA EXTENDING TO THE N OF STRONGER HI CENTER
IN THE TN RIVER VALLEY. THE LO CLDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG OVER THE W AND SCENTRAL. EVEN WHERE THE LO
CLDS HAVE DSPTD...A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID/UPR LVL MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONGER WAA IN THE NRN PLAINS IS SUPPORTING AREA OF MID/HI CLDS
SPILLING OVER THE RDG INTO THE WRN LKS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE IMPACT OF
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW THAT IS FCST TO DEVELOP TNGT/WED BETWEEN SFC
HI PRES RDG FCST TO MOVE E/BUILD UNDER THE EXPANDING UPR RDG AND
FALLING MSLP IN THE PLAINS TO THE E OF A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE W.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES SHIFTING E INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC STATES
IS FCST TO BUILD TO ABOUT 1040MB BY 12Z WED. IN CONCERT WITH DVLPG
LO PRES TROF ALONG THE BORDER BTWN MN AND THE DAKOTAS...THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS IS FCST TO TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY...
WITH S H925 WINDS INCRSG UP TO 35-40KTS ACCENTUATED BY DVLPG PRES
FALL CENTER OVER NW ONTARIO. MODELS SHOW AN AXIS OF HIER RH IN THE
SFC-H9 LYR RETURNING INTO THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNGT WITHIN THIS
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AND UNDER LINGERING LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
INVRN. WITH AN UPSOPE LLVL SSE FLOW... MAINTAINED SOME FCST -DZ/
-FZDZ IN THIS AREA. LIMITED DEPTH OF RETURNING MOIST LYR AND/OR
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WL RESULT IN A DRY FCST FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. LO
TEMPS MAY BE TRICKY TNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. IF THE LO CLDS
LINGERING THERE DSPT THIS EVNG WITH THE PASSING OF THE SFC HI/MORE
ACYC FLOW BEFORE THE SLY FLOW PICKS UP...TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY
BEFORE WINDS PICK UP OVERNGT. SUSPECT THE LO CLDS WL BE RESILIENT
ENUF AND INCOMING MID/HI CLDS WL LIMIT THIS EVNG TEMP DROP...SO DID
NOT GO TOO LO WITH FCST MIN TEMPS. INCRSG S WINDS/MORE CLDS WL
LIKELY BRING RISING TEMPS OVERNGT.
WED...STEADY/GUSTY S SLOWLY VEERING SW LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO SLOWLY
INCRS MSTR DEPTH THRU THE DAY. IN CONCERT WITH SOME WEAK DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RA OR DZ. BUT GENERAL DRYNESS OF
THE FCST AIRMASS IN THE MID LVLS/DGZ AND ONLY WEAK FORCING SUGGESTS
ANY PCPN WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE. SO MODEL QPF IS RATHER LGT AND
SPOTTY AND FOCUSED MAINLY AWAY FM THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
ALTHOUGH THE CLDS WL HOLD DOWN MAX TEMPS...READINGS NOT FAR FM 40 WL
STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
...THANKSGIVING PTYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN MAIN ISSUES...
IN THE LARGE SCALE...UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SPLITS TODAY WITH LEADING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TO MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO BY THANKSGIVING WHILE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW STAYS BACK OVER GREAT BASIN. INITIAL WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES AHEAD OF NORTHERN TROUGH AND SHOULD BE OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO BY WED EVENING. COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LOW AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY LATE EVENING OVER FAR WESTERN CWA AND
ACROSS CENTRAL CWA AROUND DAYBREAK ON THU. FRONT MOVES TO EASTERN
CWA THROUGH THU MORNING BUT COOLING TO THE SFC LAGS THE WIND SHIFT
AND DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THU AFTN INTO THU EVENING.
WPC PREFERENCE FOR OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM IS
FOR SOMETHING CLOSER TO 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM. LATEST GEM SIMILAR AS
WELL. GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH FROPA ON THU AND THEN SHOWS MOST OF
THE NEXT ROUND OF QPF MOVING IN BY THU NIGHT STAYING SOUTH AND EAST
OF UPR MICHIGAN. WPC DID NOT PREFER THE GFS. SINCE THE 00Z NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...USED THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS WITH MORE QPF ADDED
/SIMILAR TO CONSISTENT ECMWF/ TO GAGE PYTPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
INITIALLY ON WED STILL APPEARS THAT INTERIOR CNTRL CWA COULD SEE DZ
OR FZDZ WITH MOISTURE BLO 2KFT AND SSE WINDS IN THAT LAYER. BASED ON
WHERE NAM SHOWS LIFT WITHIN THIS MOISTURE AND ORIENTATION OF TERRAIN
EXPECT AREAS FM KIMT TO KSAW TO SEE BEST CHANCE OF ANY LGT PCPN. IN
THE AFTN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPLEMENTED BY MOISTENING UP TO
750MB OR 7-8KFT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH AND SFC-H85 LOW LIFTING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN WITH NOT MUCH QPF TO AFFECT MOST OF CWA INTO WED NIGHT.
SINCE MOISTURE NEVER REACHES UP TO TEMPS BLO -10C PTYPE COULD BE AN
ISSUE WHEN COOLER AIR ARRIVES WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. MAY
SEE RAIN CHANGE TO DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF
SNOW. NW-N WINDS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFTING AS WELL
OVER WESTERN CWA LATE WED NIGHT AND INTO NCNTRL CWA ON THU MORNING.
LATER THU...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LFITS ALONG THE FRONT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION REDEVELOPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...ESPECIALLY ALOFT. NAM
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE IF STEADY PRECIPITATION FORMS AS ECMWF AND
GEM-NH SHOW...PTYPE WOULD BE SNOW OVER WEST...MAINLY SNOW OVER CNTRL
CWA AND LIKELY STAYING RAIN UNTIL LATE DAY OVER EAST. MAY ALSO BE
DEALING WITH SLEET AS WELL UNTIL IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR ONLY
SNOW. SMALL RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL LATE
ON THU INTO THU EVENING...AGAIN BEFORE COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SNOW.
ECMWF REMAINS BULLISH WITH QPF...SHOWING AMOUNTS NEAR 0.80 INCHES
BTWN 18Z THU AND 06Z FRI AT MNM AND A WIDESPREAD 0.40-0.60 IN SWATH
FM IMT TO ERY. ENOUGH WARM LAYER ALOFT H9-H8 TO LEAD TO PTYPE ISSUES
AT MNM BUT FARTHER NORTH MAJORITY OF THIS HEAVY PRECIP WOULD FALL AS
SNOW. GEM PRETTY SIMILAR TO ECMWF...BUT 06Z NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE GFS ARE NOT NEAR AS HIGH WITH QPF. GFS SHOWS LESS THAN 0.25
INCHES AT MNM AND BARELY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FARTHER NORTH. WHAT A
DIFFERENCE! NO REAL APPRECIABLE TRENDS IN ECMWF OR GFS. 06Z NAM DID
TREND SLIGHTLY LESS WITH QPF COMPARED TO 00Z RUN. SREF ENSEMBLE SNOW
ACCUM PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOW SAME TYPE OF SPREAD AT IMT WITH SOME
MEMBERS SHOWING LESS THAN 1 INCH AND OTHERS UP OVER 7 INCHES. FOR
WHAT IT IS WORTH WPC PROBABILISTIC WINTER GRAPHICS SHOWED SHARP JUMP
IN CHANCES OF SEEING OVER 4/6/8 INCHES...MAXIMIZED FM NORTHERN WI
INTO SW UPR MICHIGAN VCNTY FROM IMT TO JUST INLAND FM ESC. NO CLEAR
CUT ANSWER HERE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ADVY SNOWS LATER THU
INTO THU EVENING IS STILL THERE. WILL KEEP MENTIONING THE SYSTEM
AND SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...ONLY MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT AND IT BECOMES VERY DRY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
AFTN...THE NEAR SFC AIR IS DRY ENUF PER LOCAL RAOBS/OBSVD SFC DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3
LOCATIONS. AN INCRSG S WIND TNGT WL RESULT IN LLWS OVERNGT AND DRAW
MOISTER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. BEST CHC FOR A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT SAW...WHERE THE
EXPECTED SSE WIND WL UPSLOPE. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE EXPECTED FLOW
AT IWD AND CMX MAKE IFR CIGS LESS CERTAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MRNG WITH SOME DAYTIME WARMING ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD AND SAW LOCATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME S AND INCREASE
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING HI
PRES TO THE E AND FALLING PRES IN THE PLAINS. OPTED TO UPGRADE GALE
WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE E HALF TO A WARNING FOR WED INTO THE
EVENING...WHEN THE GRADIENT/WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. EXPECT
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW AFTER A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE ON WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF TRAILING HI
PRES WILL LEAD TO WINDS UP TO 30 KTS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL GALE
FORCE WINDS INTO THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO FRI
AS THIS HI PRES EDGES CLOSER. ALTHOUGH W WINDS COULD INCREASE UP TO
25-30KT AGAIN ON SAT UNDER A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HI
CENTERED JUST TO THE SW AND ANOTHER LO PRES TROF SWINGING THRU
NORTHERN ONTARIO...A WEAKER GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ON SUN AFTER THE TROF EXITS INTO QUEBEC AND THE HI PRES
RIDGE BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
548 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015
First weak shortwave trough is currently exiting to the northeast
but area will stay in persistent southwesterly flow aloft through
tonight. There will be some weak vort maxes that will move through
the flow aloft that will provide some weak ascent above increasing
moisture convergence because of the low level jet. Rain chances
will increase through the late evening and overnight over central
and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois where the
best low level moisture convergence will be.
Temperatures will not drop too much tonight with strong warm air
advection and dewpoints rising through tonight. Expect lows to be
closer to the warmer MAV MOS guidance.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015
(Thanksgiving Day - Saturday Night)
A strong wound-up storm system over the Great Basin region of the
western CONUS is expected to move little during this period,
maintaining an active southwest flow aloft over our region, and
shooting out pieces of energy or distrbances our way as well.
The first of these disturbances is expected to arrive late Thursday
afternoon, with essentially a near continuous train thru late
Saturday after that. This will be further augmented by a slow
moving cold front and rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The
cold front will begin moving thru late Thursday afternoon in
northeast MO and will take all of Friday and much of Friday night
to move thru the remainder of the forecast area.
Despite much cooler air ushering in behind the cold front,
temperatures are expected to stay above freezing for most areas thru
this entire period and will keep pcpn-types as all rain.
The one exception could be in parts of northeast MO and west-central
IL late Friday night and early Saturday morning, where temps will be
around the freezing mark. Fortunately, much of the pcpn by that
time should be to the south with only light spotty pcpn currently
anticipated.
Otherwise, the main concern will be the prolonged period of heavy
rainfall--especially for parts of southeast MO and far southern IL--
where rainfall totals may top 4 inches by Saturday morning. A Flood
Watch has already been issued and considering that the rainfall
forecast has changed little since then, if not the heavy QPF axis
sliding a bit further south, no change was needed to the current
area. The only adjustment seriously considered was an extension in
time into Saturday for southeast MO and far southern IL, but wanted
to take another look or two at that to see if the southern trend
continues.
Temps will be quite mild for late November ahead of the front, but
will rapidly drop to below average for daytime maxes behind it, with
readings in some areas not getting out of the 30s. Fortunately,
plenty of warm air aloft should keep the pcpn as rain unless surface
temps can slip below 32F.
(Sunday - Next Wednesday)
Model solutions continue to vary quite a bit out in this period but
the general theme continues to be the storm out west gets nudged
into the main flow and tracks generally east, passing mainly to our
north by Tuesday sliding a surface TROF thru on Monday. Looks like
another round of primarily rain on Monday with this TROF. Temps
look to be around average for this time of year, with clear absence
of any significant cold air surges from the north, but also absent
any strong influence from either the moist Gulf of Mexico or the
much milder air to the south.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015
Overall synoptic trends will remain pretty much unchanged during
this TAF cycle, with FA in zone of persistent warm air and
moisture advection ahead of cold front that currently stretches
from central KS into north central IA. We should continue to see
a few showers in this regime overnight (primarily north of I-70),
with this activity becoming more numerous/widespread from central
into northeast MO Thanksgiving morning as lift increases ahead of
the approaching cold front. As far as ceilings are
concerned...they are currently running low-end VFR (3-5kft), and
dont expect a lot of change overnight and into Thursday morning as
the strong mixing will tend to offset the nocturnal cooling that
tends to lower cloud bases. In addition, some of the guidance
indicates a bit of relatively drier low level air working north
from AR early this evening. LLWS also remains a concern, as the
latest RUC soundings are still forecasting 35+ kts as low as 900
feet off the ground, and around 45kts around 1500 feet.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR expected overnight and into tomorrow
morning, with ceilings at or above 4000 feet. LLWS will remain a
concern overnight, with RUC soundings forecasting 45kts around
1500 feet.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday night FOR
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St.
Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve
MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday night FOR
Clinton IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1138 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
BROAD NWRLY FLOW ALOFT FORMED BY A SLOWLY EXITING LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND BROAD...WEAK RIDGING IN THE WEST. OFF
THE BC COAST...A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SLIDING
EWD TO THE WEST COAST. LEAD SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY MOVING ONTO THE
CENTRAL CA COAST CURRENTLY PRODUCING BAROCLINIC LEAF OVER NV. CLOSER
TO HOME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SNOW FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC
NEB CONTINUING TO ERODE SLOWLY AS TEMPS WARM QUICKLY UNDER MOSTLY
FULL SUNSHINE AND DESPITE LIGHT WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN
PORTIONS OF THE NC FCST AREA. NAM/SREF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT
SUGGESTING THIS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF TRAPPED COLD
AIR FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 600 FT. NAM HAS ISSUES WITH LOWER
LAYER IN AND NEAR SNOW COVER...BUT COULD STILL BE SUGGESTING A
REALISTIC POTENTIAL. SREF VSBY PROBS SHOW GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCED VSBY IN THE 06-12Z TUES TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE THE RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF. FROM AN OBSERVATIONAL PERSPECTIVE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT IN CONCERT WITH ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW
WOULD SUGGEST NAM COULD BE ON TO SOMETHING. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE FCST THOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MORE STRONGER WORDING
IF DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR.
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL PIVOT NEWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUES. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS WILL SERVE TO
KICK THE PREVIOUSLY DEVELOPED SFC TROUGH EWD DURING THE DAY
WHICH...BECAUSE OF DRY LOWER LEVELS...SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN A WIND
SHIFT FROM SERLY TO SRLY OR SWRLY BEHIND SFC TROUGH. WEAK LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL TEMPER HIGHS A BIT TMRW...BUT BY LATE IN THE DAY
SUBSIDENCE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED AND WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AGAIN. HAVE TRENDED FCST TWD THE HIGH END OF
THE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBILITIES AS A RESULT AND ALSO BECAUSE TEMPS
HAVE WARMED ABOVE EXPECTED LEVELS THE LAST TWO DAYS. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HELD DOWN WHERE SNOW COVER STILL REMAINS IN NC NEB
AND ALSO IF CLOUDS DO FORM THEY WILL INHIBIT INSOLATION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FCST CONCERNS FOR
TUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT STRATUS
WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THAT WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARD CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT MAY CLIP THE VERY FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG INTO THE SRN ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME A LEAD WAVE WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. MAY NOT SEE THE HIGHER CLOUDS
HOWEVER...AS LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE/DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT.
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE FILTERING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE/SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE A FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUNDING...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOWEST LEVELS DRIER. WITH
CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT NOT SURE WE WILL SEE MUCH SNOW. MAY BE
MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THE LEAD WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
THANKSGIVING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DUSTING. NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER 20S FCST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH HOWEVER WILL GIVE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.
FOR THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...OPERATIONAL
MODELS EJECT THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING. FOR NOW
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. OTHERWISE CONTINUED COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FROM KVTN TO KONL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL OCCUR AT KVTN AND
HAVE REMOVED FROM THE TAF WITH VISUAL FLIGHT RULES AT KVTN AND
KLBF THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
736 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS CONTINUES WITH MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE
THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE LOOKOUT AND THIS RAIN IS SLOWLY WORKING
IT WAY TO THE COAST NORTH OF US. THE HRRR AND OTHER GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COASTAL AREAS MAYBE SEEING AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAINLY NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A REALLY INTERESTING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPS THANKSGIVING DAY: AN UPPER RIDGE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE
SE STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS DISTURBANCE HELPS CUT OFF A BROAD
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHICH THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SINK INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER US SHOULD
HELP DISSIPATE ANY CIRRUS ADVECTING EASTWARD FROM STORMINESS IN
THE PLAINS STATES AND WILL MAINTAIN A VERY DRY AIRMASS THROUGHOUT
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
BELOW 800 MB (ABOUT 7000 FEET AGL) ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL BRING IN MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS APPEAR LESS
BULLISH ON THE DEPTH AND TIME WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT FOR CLOUD COVER. WATCHING HOW DIFFICULT A TIME THE
ATLANTIC STRATOCUMULUS HAS HAD PUSHING WESTWARD TODAY GIVES ME
PAUSE TO FORECAST ANYTHING WORSE THAN "PARTLY CLOUDY" THURSDAY.
THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ACTUALLY DRY OUT SLIGHTLY FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS ARE PREFERRED OVER THE 12Z NAM
GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE BETTER HANDLING OF THE DOMINANCE OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH LATER THIS WEEK. THE NAM IS LIKELY WRONG
WITH ITS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
CAROLINAS...THEN PINWHEELING IT WESTWARD AROUND THE TOPSIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW. IN THE NAM THIS FEATURE DISTORTS OUR LOW-LEVEL WIND
PATTERN AND CREATES COLD ADVECTION THAT DOESN`T APPEAR IN THE
OTHER TWO MODELS. FORECAST HIGHS/LOWS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED VERY NEAR
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO GIVE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FITS NEXT WEEK. PERIOD BEGINS WITH FLATTENING
5H RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION WARM AND DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MID
LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO TRANSITION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN SLOWLY STARTS MOVING EAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONT STALLED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON SUN WILL WORK ITS
WAY EAST MON INTO TUE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE LOCAL AREA AND PRECIP POTENTIAL MON INTO TUE LOOKS
LIMITED. THE FRONT ALSO DRIFTS EAST MON/TUE ENDING UP STALLED IN THE
KY/TN VALLEYS AS SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EAST COAST HOLDS STRONG.
EVENTUALLY 5H LOW EMERGING FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAINS IN QUESTION. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP POP CAPPED AT LOW CHC THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH MID TO UPPER
CLOUDS...MAINLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...AND NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 8
KTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT REGARDING FOG
POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS HAVE KEPT WITH MAINLY VFR
ALONG THE COAST AND TEMPO MVFR...ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR FOG
INLAND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR. HOWEVER...WILL NOTE
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY IFR IS LOW ATTM. ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 10 KTS EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND GUSTS
POSSIBLY NEARING 18 KTS ALONG THE COAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE NORTHEAST WINDS
TO BLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 KTS. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET WITH A FEW 7 FOOTERS FARTHER OFF THE COAST.
SEAS JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WILL BE SLIGHT LESS AS
THESE WATERS ARE PROTECTED FROM THE LONGER FETCH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN LATER THIS WEEK...
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NE WINDS AT A HEFTY 15-20 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WITH SUCH A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AFFECTED BY THESE WINDS LOOK FOR SEAS TO INCREASE TO 7-8 FEET AT
10-20 MILE DISTANCES FROM SHORE NEAR CAPE FEAR AND EAST OF WINYAH
BAY. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8-10 SECONDS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN ROUGHER OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM WHERE
CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST. GRADIENT FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST FLOW AT OR ABOVE 15 KT WILL KEEP SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS EXPOSED TO
NORTHEAST FLOW. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 FT NEAR SHORE TO AS HIGH AS 7
FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...TIDES MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS AT
THE BEACHES WITH THURSDAY`S 7 AM HIGH TIDE. ONLY A 0.5 TO 0.7 FOOT
ANOMALY WILL BE ENOUGH TO REACH THE 6.0 FT MLLW FLOOD LEVEL AT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND 7.5 FT MLLW AT MYRTLE BEACH. THIS APPEARS
POSSIBLE GIVEN SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
643 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES IN PLACE
OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH A 1042MB HIGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS OF 1036MB INTO THE CAROLINAS. PLENTY OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SEEN STREAMING SOUTHWESTWARD AND COAST-PARALLEL
(IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS BUT ALSO A FEW BLIPS ON RADAR) IN THIS FLOW
BUT THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS HAVE CREATED JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SUNSHINE HAS LARGELY PREVAILED. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING HOWEVER THIS STABILITY WILL BE OFFSET AND SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE SHOULD START MAKING IT ASHORE ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS A BIT ATOP THE SURFACE LAYER. OTHER THAN PERHAPS
A SPRINKLE OR TWO MAINLY ALONG THE PROTRUDING AREAS LIKE BALD HEAD
ISLAND/SOUTHPORT AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
GFS AND NEWER RUNS OF THE HRRR WHEREAS THE OPERATIONAL 12Z WRF
ADVECTS SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN FURTHER INLAND, SEEMINGLY IN ERROR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A REALLY INTERESTING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPS THANKSGIVING DAY: AN UPPER RIDGE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE
SE STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS DISTURBANCE HELPS CUT OFF A BROAD
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHICH THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SINK INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER US SHOULD
HELP DISSIPATE ANY CIRRUS ADVECTING EASTWARD FROM STORMINESS IN
THE PLAINS STATES AND WILL MAINTAIN A VERY DRY AIRMASS THROUGHOUT
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
BELOW 800 MB (ABOUT 7000 FEET AGL) ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL BRING IN MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS APPEAR LESS
BULLISH ON THE DEPTH AND TIME WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT FOR CLOUD COVER. WATCHING HOW DIFFICULT A TIME THE
ATLANTIC STRATOCUMULUS HAS HAD PUSHING WESTWARD TODAY GIVES ME
PAUSE TO FORECAST ANYTHING WORSE THAN "PARTLY CLOUDY" THURSDAY.
THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ACTUALLY DRY OUT SLIGHTLY FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS ARE PREFERRED OVER THE 12Z NAM
GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE BETTER HANDLING OF THE DOMINANCE OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH LATER THIS WEEK. THE NAM IS LIKELY WRONG
WITH ITS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
CAROLINAS...THEN PINWHEELING IT WESTWARD AROUND THE TOPSIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW. IN THE NAM THIS FEATURE DISTORTS OUR LOW-LEVEL WIND
PATTERN AND CREATES COLD ADVECTION THAT DOESN`T APPEAR IN THE
OTHER TWO MODELS. FORECAST HIGHS/LOWS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED VERY NEAR
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO GIVE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FITS NEXT WEEK. PERIOD BEGINS WITH FLATTENING
5H RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION WARM AND DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MID
LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO TRANSITION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN SLOWLY STARTS MOVING EAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONT STALLED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON SUN WILL WORK ITS
WAY EAST MON INTO TUE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE LOCAL AREA AND PRECIP POTENTIAL MON INTO TUE LOOKS
LIMITED. THE FRONT ALSO DRIFTS EAST MON/TUE ENDING UP STALLED IN THE
KY/TN VALLEYS AS SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EAST COAST HOLDS STRONG.
EVENTUALLY 5H LOW EMERGING FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAINS IN QUESTION. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP POP CAPPED AT LOW CHC THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH MID TO UPPER
CLOUDS...MAINLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...AND NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 8
KTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT REGARDING FOG
POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS HAVE KEPT WITH MAINLY VFR
ALONG THE COAST AND TEMPO MVFR...ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR FOG
INLAND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR. HOWEVER...WILL NOTE
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY IFR IS LOW ATTM. ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 10 KTS EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND GUSTS
POSSIBLY NEARING 18 KTS ALONG THE COAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A MODERATELY STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE DUE TO
SPRAWLING 1042MB HIGH CENTERED OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS. PAIR THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE AND
GRADIENT WITH THE BROAD SWATH OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND SEAS. MOST ZONES WILL AVERAGE 4-6 OR
BRIEFLY 5-7 FT THOUGH THERE WILL BE A VERY NEARSHORE WAVE HEIGHT
SHADOW OFF BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN LATER THIS WEEK...
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NE WINDS AT A HEFTY 15-20 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WITH SUCH A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AFFECTED BY THESE WINDS LOOK FOR SEAS TO INCREASE TO 7-8 FEET AT
10-20 MILE DISTANCES FROM SHORE NEAR CAPE FEAR AND EAST OF WINYAH
BAY. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8-10 SECONDS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN ROUGHER OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM WHERE
CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST. GRADIENT FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST FLOW AT OR ABOVE 15 KT WILL KEEP SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS EXPOSED TO
NORTHEAST FLOW. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 FT NEAR SHORE TO AS HIGH AS 7
FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGHER OF TWO DIURNAL CYCLES HAS BEEN
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORNING TIDES. THE RIVERFRONT AT
WILMINGTON HAS BEEN REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AT BOTH TIDES AS OF
LATE, EVEN THE LOWER EVENING HIGH TIDE. THE FORECAST (WHICH HAS
ERRED SLIGHTLY HIGH) NOW SHOWS A PEAK OF ABOUT 5.4 FT WHICH IS
JUST SHY OF ADVISORY LEVEL OF 5.5 FT MLLW.
TIDES MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS AT THE BEACHES WITH THURSDAY`S
7 AM HIGH TIDE. ONLY A 0.5 TO 0.7 FOOT ANOMALY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
REACH THE 6.0 FT MLLW FLOOD LEVEL AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND 7.5 FT
MLLW AT MYRTLE BEACH. THIS APPEARS POSSIBLE GIVEN SUSTAINED
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
115 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME AC IS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THE AC ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z NAM AND
LATEST RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPING/PUSHING DOWN INTO PRIMARILY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR
FA LATE TONIGHT SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS LATE.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH ON TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LIMITED CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL DROP OFF INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE WAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING. WE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER
60S.
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF
GIVEN THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LIKELY POPS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DRY FROM NW TO SE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF ARE AT STARK ODDS WITH EACH OTHER. GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH ENERGY PUSHING EAST INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WRN U.S. THAN THE
ECMWF. AGAIN...GIVEN BLOCKY NATURE OF THE FLOW PATTERN...PREFER THE
SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF/WPC FORECASTS. HAVE BROUGHT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SOUTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW PUSH FOR THE THREAT
OF PCPN INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER A LITTLE BIT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN NW FLOW PATTERN WEAK SFC WAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. WEAK FRONT TO DROP SE INTO OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING AND
DISSIPATE. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SRN EXTENT. FOLLOWING THIS TREND HAVE
KEPT TAFS VFR...ONLY ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO ESTABLISH OVER THE
REGION WITH ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.
SW WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY WILL BACK TO THE SE AT
5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
239 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015
MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MOSTLY CENTERED AROUND
FOG/DRIZZLE THREAT. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. WITH AN INVERSION IN PLACE AND SNOW COVER THIS
SHOULD LEAD TOWARDS WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG. DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING TO
SEE STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM ABOUT 2Z THROUGH 9Z WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER STRATUS OR FOG BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW NO
CONCERNS WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AS IT APPEARS THAT ANY DRIZZLE SHOULD
OCCUR WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY 34 OR WARMER. THE ONE AREA TO WATCH
MAY BE AROUND THE JAMES VALLEY OR JUST EAST OF THERE WHERE
TEMPERATURES COULD SNEAK DOWN TO 31 OR 32 BY SUNRISE AND CAUSE A
LITTLE FREEZING ON EXPOSED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADS. CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME AND BELIEVE THE THREAT WILL BE EAST
OF THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE EARLY EVENING LOWS IN THE
EASTERN CWA WITH RISING TEMPERATURES BUT MORE STANDARD LOWS IN THE
WESTERN CWA.
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAINFALL FOR WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
KEEP THE THREAT TO DRIZZLE OR FOG. DO STILL HAVE SOME 20 POPS OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AS THERE IS A CHANCE SOME OF THIS DRIZZLE
COULD PRODUCE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME SPREAD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE NORTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST MN AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW
GETS DEEPER. SOME FRONTAL LIFT OF THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY AND HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...TENDING TO SNOW WITH THE
COOLING...OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA ALL THE WAY TO CHAMBERLAIN.
SOME MIXED FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE TRANSITION
AREA AS COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT PROGRESSES AND GETS DEEPER.
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BRING CONTINUED STEADY COOLING WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTHEAST HALF. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND TO SNOW WITH A MIXTURE PRECEDING. THE PRECIPITATION THREAT
SHOULD PEAK AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM
THE WEST. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND FAIRLY
QUICK DRYING COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...LIKELY TO UNQUALIFIED POPS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST ONLY FOR NORTHWEST IOWA INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INCLUDING JACKSON. AT THIS TIME THE
SNOWFALL OUTLOOK IS AROUND 2 INCHES IN THIS AREA WITH LESS TO THE
WEST AND NORTH. WINDS WILL GET JUST A BIT ON THE STIFF SIDE BUT NOT
SEEN STRONG ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW
WITH THESE LIMITED AMOUNTS. THE PROBLEM WITH GETTING MORE IS THAT
THE SHORT WAVE COMING UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW
IS GOING TO RUN INTO RIDGING FORCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WHICH HELPS BRING IN THE COLDER AIR...SO THE WAVE WILL BE DAMPENED
OUT AS IT APPROACHES AND THE DECENT FRONTAL BANDING WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH TO WORK ON IT.
SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OR SIMPLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY NOT ONLY AMONG EACH OTHER BUT
FROM RUN TO RUN ON HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. A DECENT WAVE COMING UP
TOWARD THE AREA MAY TEND TO RAP BACK AROUND THE UPPER LOW. IN ANY
EVENT THERMAL CONTRAST LOOKS FAIR TO POOR IN THIS PATTERN...SO
DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...DO NOT
LOOK FOR A BIG STORM THREAT AT THIS TIME. THE GFS SEEMS TO SERVE UP
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH ITS POSITIONING OF
THE WAVE BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WHEN IT
INTERACTS WITH THE COOLER SNOW COVERED GROUND STRATUS AND FOG WILL
BECOME LIKELY. SUSPECT THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AFTER ABOUT 9-12Z. THE THREAT WILL
BUILD NORTH AFTER ABOUT 3Z WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN THREAT OF IFR.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
332 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNINGS HAVE DROPPED A BIT MORE THAN FORECAST DUE TO THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS AS THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA WILL START THE DAY OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS...AMPLE SUPPLY OF INSOLATION AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EXPECT A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THE TYPE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT IS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. DUE TO THIS...LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE A
WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON
THANKSGIVING WILL CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE TN
VALLEY.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE FRIDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU LATER IN THE
DAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE FRONT SLOWS AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST HANGS TOUGH. THE FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES EAST MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. THE RIDGE
ALONG THE EAST COAST FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
WARM FRIDAY IN THE 60S AND THEN COOL BACK TO THE 50S SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 36 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 32 58 39 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 56 33 57 38 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 29 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
916 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE FORMING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SE TX THIS
EVE. A FEW SHWRS ARE MOVING NW JUST EAST OF THE SE TX COASTAL
WATERS. LATEST HRRR INDICATING THAT A FEW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING.
THEREFORE...ADDED A 20 POP AND MENTION OF SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NOT SEEING ANY SEA FOG OFFSHORE THIS EVE. APPEARS DW PTS OFFSHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST NEED TO INCREASE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES FROM
CURRENT VALUES TO GET SEA FOG FORMATION TO OCCUR. 33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/
AVIATION...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SATURATE THE LOWER ONE TO TWO
THOUSAND FEET OVER THE COMING HOURS...MVFR DECKS WITH PERIODIC
IFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND A CONTINUED SOUTHEAST BREEZE. STREAMER
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF METRO AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DISTURBANCES
MOVING UP AHEAD OF A WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS LATER IN THE DAY...INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERY WEATHER OVER CLL/UTS DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 76 68 75 51 / 10 50 40 70 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 76 69 77 63 / 20 30 30 50 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 75 69 75 67 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
648 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
.AVIATION...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SATURATE THE LOWER ONE TO TWO
THOUSAND FEET OVER THE COMING HOURS...MVFR DECKS WITH PERIODIC
IFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND A CONTINUED SOUTHEAST BREEZE. STREAMER
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF METRO AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DISTURBANCES
MOVING UP AHEAD OF A WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS LATER IN THE DAY...INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERY WEATHER OVER CLL/UTS DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SIERRA MOUNTAIN REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SWD INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND SUPPLY AMPLE MOISTURE. IN
ADDITION...HURRICANE SANDRA OVER THE ERN PAC WILL CONTINUE TO
CHURN NEWD AND MAKE LANDFALL AS A TS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH BROAD FEED OF ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADING INTO TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE
RETURN IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TX COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE UPPER TX COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NET RESULT WILL BE MILD AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER SERN TX INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS MOISTURE RETURN OVERSPREADS THE AREA WE CAN EXPECT A GENERAL
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES...MOSTLY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY INCREASING TO STEADIER RAIN IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE WRN COUNTIES
BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING WHERE HRRR SPREADS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OUT OF CENTRAL TX. HOWEVER...FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
SERN COUNTIES...PRIMARY RAIN CHANCES BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF SOUTHEAST TX...SOME AREAS NORTH OF A
COLUMBUS-CONROE-LIVINGSTON LINE COULD STILL SEE RAIN TOTALS FROM
1-2" BETWEEN FRI AND SUN. MUCH OF THE HOUSTON METRO INTO THE COAST
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LESSER AMOUNTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS LATE IN NOV WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS APPROACHING 80F FOR A FEW SPOTS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL LIKELY CUT TEMPS 20 DEGREES FOR HIGHS BY
SUNDAY. WE LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING AS MOIST WLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE.
48
MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. NEARSHORE WATER
FORECAST WILL CARRY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS...BUT ADD ANOTHER KNOTS OR
TWO AND CAUTION FLAGS WILL BE NEEDED THERE TOO. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS IS STILL ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OFFSHORE...AND CAUTION FLAGS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND MAYBE THE BAYS TOO. EXPECT
GRADUALLY LOWERING WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...NO FLAGS
ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS FRONT DUE TO THE LOW ENOUGH WIND AND SEA
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE SEA FOG FORMATION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO...ELEVATED TIDES AND EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 66 76 68 75 51 / 10 50 40 70 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 76 69 77 63 / 10 30 30 50 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 75 69 75 67 / 10 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
552 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
NEVADA...TROUGHING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND BROAD RIDGING
FROM TEXAS INTO NEW ENGLAND. REAL ONLY SHORTWAVE OF NOTE WAS IN
NORTHWEST KS. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW UNDERNEATH THE BROAD RIDGING
HELPING TO PROPEL WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. 925MB TEMP AT
MPX JUMPED FROM 2C AT 00Z TO 6C AT 12Z. 50F DEWPOINTS WERE
APPROACHING THE IA/MO BORDER...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LAYED UP FROM
DLH TO LINCOLN NE. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS
BACK SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ALONE HAS PUSHED
READINGS WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW 50S FOR LOCATIONS THAT SAW
SOME PEAKS OF SUN. THE RECENT WARMTH HAS REALLY DENTED THE SNOWPACK
TOO...WITH DEPTHS MOSTLY UNDER 5 INCHES PER 12Z COOP REPORTS...WHICH
HAS GREATLY REDUCED ITS IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED YET...AS THE CLOUD LAYER
REMAINS SOMEWHAT SHALLOW AND RELATIVELY SPEAKING HIGH BASED / ALL
EITHER HIGH MVFR OR VFR IN AVIATION TERMS/.
MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES SLIGHTLY EAST...WE SEE THE FRONT OFF TO OUR
WEST MOVE ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THU.
THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
PUSHING WARM/MOIST AIR INTO US...NOTED IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
CLIMBING FROM 0.5-0.75 INCHES AT 18Z TODAY TO 0.75-1 INCH AT 12Z
THU. READINGS WILL LIKELY CLIMB THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
TOO...BEFORE FALLING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS ANTICIPATING
THANKSGIVING DAY CALENDAR HIGH TO OCCUR TONIGHT. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALSO OCCURS FROM NEAR THE SURFACE TO 6000 FT...WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT TAKING PLACE IN THIS LAYER. THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE
DRIZZLE. IN FACT...LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO SHOULD SEE FLAT
OUT HIGHER QPF / LIGHT RAIN TAKE PLACE. THIS IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME
THAT THE SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
THE DRIZZLE AND INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS EVIDENT IN
ALL MODEL QPF PROGS...WITH VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS TONIGHT...GIVEN TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING AND PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ABOVE THE LOWER
CLOUDS TO PRECLUDE ANY SEEDER-FEEDER TO INTRODUCE SNOW CRYSTALS.
THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY GETS MORE INTERESTING. THE TWO
UPPER TROUGHS OFF TO OUR WEST ATTEMPT TO PHASE...WHICH IN TURN
INTENSIFIES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND THE FRONT THAT MOSTLY PASSED
THROUGH OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFIES THE UPPER JET AND THROUGH THERMAL
WIND RELATIONSHIP...INTENSIFIES THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED TO HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST...THE NET RESULT IS FOR
PRECIPITATION TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...LUCKILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN BUT DEFINITELY NOT
ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS...LOOKS TO FALL IN CLAYTON/GRANT
COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION EXISTS OF STRONGEST AND
DEEPEST FRONTOGENESIS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO EVEN SEE SOME LIGHTNING NEAR DUBUQUE WITH UP
TO 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED. FARTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPER SATURATION FROM THE
SURFACE TO THE TROPOPAUSE TO PREVENT LOSS OF SNOW/ICE
CRYSTALS...SHOULD HELP GRADUALLY TURN PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET
THEN SNOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FROM MCW TO RST AND EAU. SINCE
THE FORCING IS WEAKER COMPARED TO CLAYTON/GRANT
COUNTIES...PRECIPITATION IS LIGHTER...BUT STILL LIKELY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE TRAVELING ISSUES. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
ON THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FINALLY
BEGINS TO MAKE SOME BETTER PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH
ALL OF THE FORCING...PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE THAT WAS OVER OUR
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO THE EAST. APPEARS IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE
LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FULLY EXIT OUR AREA.
UNTIL THEN...HOWEVER...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION NOTED BY
925MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -5C TO 5C AT 00Z FRI TO -8 TO -5C BY 12Z
FRI...COMBINED WITH A DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN SHOULD HELP TRANSITION
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING. NOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
WHEN THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN...THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS WELL AS
NOTED IN THE CURRENT AND PAST RUNS OF THE GFS. APPEARS ANY SNOW OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STILL ENOUGH OF AN
IMPACT TO WARRANT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHWEST.
SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE AMOUNT FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF APPEARS TOO
LITTLE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
WEATHER GOES INTO QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL LAND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE...AND THE AREA GOES
UNDER A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY LATE SATURDAY. 925MB TEMPS
HOLD BETWEEN -5 AND -8C FOR FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE WARMING
TO 0 TO -2C SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE READINGS SUPPORT
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MS RIVER
COULD STAY JUST BELOW 30 ON FRIDAY.
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK PER THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WHICH GRADUALLY MAKES
ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION MON THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THEN THE MOISTURE
GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD SUCH THAT ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. CERTAINLY SOME TIMING AND
OTHER SYNOPTIC DIFFERENCES THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ONLY IN
THE 20- 40 RANGE AT THIS TIME. COOL AIR UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW
COMBINED WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WHICH RESULTS IN SNOW AS THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. DEFINITELY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO LOOK AT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AT KLSE/KRST RESPECTIVELY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS OVERLY PESSIMISTIC
WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND CURRENTLY DOES NOT MATCH REALITY...SO WILL
NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE FOR CEILINGS TO DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE IFR/LOW MVFR RANGE WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH TROUGH
PASSAGE. IN GENERAL...DELAYED LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND RAIN FOR A
FEW HOURS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MOST RAIN LIKELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT KLSE...BUT A RAIN/SLEET/POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN MIX
IS LIKELY AT KRST BY THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON. WITH ANY PRECIP...
EXPECT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAINLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ017-029-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ032.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ088-095.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ079-086-087-094.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ009-018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ008.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED TODAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY EAST
OF TUCSON. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED TO AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON FROM
NEAR CLIFTON SOUTHWEST TO WILLCOX AND NOGALES. LATEST HRRR SOLUTION
SUGGESTED THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST TODAY. THIS
LOOKED LIKE A REASONABLE SCENARIO BASED ON THE GFS WHICH SHOWED SOME
DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION TODAY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS UPPER LOW REMAINING
NEARLY STATION OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST. THUS...THE BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE TODAY INTO FRIDAY GENERALLY EAST OF TUCSON. THE MOST NOTICEABLE
CHANGES TO THE WEATHER WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4-9K FT AGL WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD
ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS WEST OF KTUS.
SCT -SHRA AND EVEN SOME EMBEDDED -TSRA PSBL THRU ABOUT 27/18Z AT
KOLS/KDUG WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
-TSRA OUT OF TERMINAL FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SW WINDS
OF MAINLY LESS THAN 12 KTS THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 12 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KOLS/KALK/KDUG TERMINALS...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER 28/02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS EVEN SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON AND
ESPECIALLY IN COCHISE COUNTY. LOCATIONS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THERE WILL REMAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE EAST OF
TUCSON TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
WELL. THEN...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK 20-FT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
353 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1050+MB SURFACE
HIGH PRES (+3 ST DEV) STILL CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND RIDGING
SW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. MEANWHILE, SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSOURI VALLEY. 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY SHOWING SOME
SC PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC
COUNTIES THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH EAST FLOW IN LOW LEVELS.
AREA OF ADDITIONAL CLOUDS PUSHING EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
AS PER USUAL, THE NAM TENDS TO OVERPLAY ITS HAND WITH ITS PROGGED
LLVL MOISTURE FIELDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND ACCORDINGLY KEEPS THE
AREA IN BKN TO OVC CLOUDS. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE HIGH RES
MODELS DEPICTION OF THE RAP AND HRRR OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...MIXING OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
AS FOR TEMPS, THE MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH ANOTHER DRY, MILD DAY EXPECTED. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
CENTRAL AND E/SE SECTIONS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S IN THE NW...LOW TO
MID40S I-95 CORRIDOR...AND U40S TO AROUND 50 SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND MILDER WX
EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROF
JUST OFF THE SE COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT MSTR / PCPN PROGGED TO STAY
SE OF THE LOCAL AREA AND OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. THUS...SILENT
POPS (<14%) CONTINUE. H85 TEMPS/THICKNESS TOOLS BOTH SUPPORT HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.
00Z/26 MODELS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT. PREFERRED
GFS/ECMWF BLENDED SOLUTION DEPICTS A WEAKENING BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SAT NGT. LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA ON SATURDAY, AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN AND PUSH BACK POP...KEEPING SAT AND MUCH
OF SAT NIGHT DRY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA (EXCEPTION IS SLIGHT POP
OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS). HAVE ALSO PUSHED TEMPS UPWARD IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME MORE TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR OUR AREA ON
SAT. INCRG CLDNS SHOULD TEMPER HIGHS A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT
THINKING IS THE UPTICK IN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY IS
JUSTIFIED. BUMPED MAXIMA UP 2-3 DEG INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SOUTH...BUT WITH COOLER U50S OVER THE ERN SHORE / NRN NECK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLOCKY PATTERN PERSISTS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER THE WRN
CONUS...LENDING TO A DIFFICULT/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO RESIDE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SWD DURING THE DAY
SUN...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE DAY SUN. FRONT
WEAKENS SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...RIDGING SWD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARISE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OH VALLEY MON AND TUE. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MON. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD
THE ECMWF BEGINNING MON NIGHT AND TUE...WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THRU THE REGION LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE CHANCE
POPS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. DRYING TREND EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE MIDWEST.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER STEADY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS THRU THE EXTENDED. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING AS AREAS OF FROST BURN OFF AND CONDENSE AROUND
26/1200Z. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL PREVENT AN
INCOMING MARINE CLOUD DECK FROM IMPACTING KECG. THEREFORE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
COMBINATION OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND FAIR WX CUMULUS AROUND
6 KFT AGL THIS AFTN...DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AOB
10KT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STALL/WEAKEN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
WITH PERIODS OF -SHRA (IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR COASTAL TAF SITES) AS THE FRONT STALLS/WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STACKED IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY AND FRIDAY. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10-15KT...SEAS 3-4FT...AND
WAVES 1-2FT. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONGER RESULTANT
WINDS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND A LONG NE-E FETCH WILL PUSH SEAS
TOWARD 5 FT EARLY THIS EVENING IN FAR SRN WATERS...WHICH WILL THEN
BUILD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE THIS EVENING FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STALL/WEAKEN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WINDS
MAINTAIN A NLY WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT. SEAS SHOULD
STAY ELEVATED AT 4-6FT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO NLY ONSHORE WINDS
AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 3-5FT SAT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
313 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1050+MB SURFACE
HIGH PRES (+3 ST DEV) STILL CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND RIDGING
SW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. MEANWHILE, SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSOURI VALLEY. 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY SHOWING SOME
SC PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC
COUNTIES THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH EAST FLOW IN LOW LEVELS.
AREA OF ADDITIONAL CLOUDS PUSHING EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
AS PER USUAL, THE NAM TENDS TO OVERPLAY ITS HAND WITH ITS PROGGED
LLVL MOISTURE FIELDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND ACCORDINGLY KEEPS THE
AREA IN BKN TO OVC CLOUDS. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE HIGH RES
MODELS DEPICTION OF THE RAP AND HRRR OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...MIXING OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
AS FOR TEMPS, THE MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH ANOTHER DRY, MILD DAY EXPECTED. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
CENTRAL AND E/SE SECTIONS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S IN THE NW...LOW TO
MID40S I-95 CORRIDOR...AND U40S TO AROUND 50 SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND MILDER WX
EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROF
JUST OFF THE SE COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT MSTR / PCPN PROGGED TO STAY
SE OF THE LOCAL AREA AND OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. THUS...SILENT
POPS (<14%) CONTINUE. H85 TEMPS/THICKNESS TOOLS BOTH SUPPORT HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.
00Z/26 MODELS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT. PREFERRED
GFS/ECMWF BLENDED SOLUTION DEPICTS A WEAKENING BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SAT NGT. LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA ON SATURDAY, AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN AND PUSH BACK POP...KEEPING SAT AND MUCH
OF SAT NIGHT DRY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA (EXCEPTION IS SLIGHT POP
OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS). HAVE ALSO PUSHED TEMPS UPWARD IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME MORE TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR OUR AREA ON
SAT. INCRG CLDNS SHOULD TEMPER HIGHS A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT
THINKING IS THE UPTICK IN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY IS
JUSTIFIED. BUMPED MAXIMA UP 2-3 DEG INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SOUTH...BUT WITH COOLER U50S OVER THE ERN SHORE / NRN NECK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLOCKY PATTERN PERSISTS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER THE WRN
CONUS...LENDING TO A DIFFICULT/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO RESIDE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SWD DURING THE DAY
SUN...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE DAY SUN. FRONT
WEAKENS SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...RIDGING SWD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARISE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OH VALLEY MON AND TUE. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MON. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD
THE ECMWF BEGINNING MON NIGHT AND TUE...WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THRU THE REGION LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE CHANCE
POPS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. DRYING TREND EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE MIDWEST.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER STEADY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS THRU THE EXTENDED. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING AS AREAS OF FROST BURN OFF AND CONDENSE AROUND
26/1200Z. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL PREVENT AN
INCOMING MARINE CLOUD DECK FROM IMPACTING KECG. THEREFORE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
COMBINATION OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND FAIR WX CUMULUS AROUND
6 KFT AGL THIS AFTN...DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AOB
10KT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STALL/WEAKEN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
WITH PERIODS OF -SHRA (IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR COASTAL TAF SITES) AS THE FRONT STALLS/WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
316 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2015
Focus continues to be precip chances thru the afternoon.
Expect strong sly winds to continue thru today. A strong swly LLJ is
expected to continue over the region today as well. Mdls continue to
depict broad areas of moisture convergence across the area today.
This is expected to result in light SHRA off and on thru much of the
day. The better chances appear to continue to be across nrn portions
of the CWA. Believe will continue with higher PoPs across this area,
tho expect little accumulation with these SHRA.
That said, the area of more stratiform and somewhat heavier RA shud
be moving into the nwrn portions of the CWA late this afternoon into
the evening hrs.
Another forecast problem for today is temps. While expect extensive
cloud cover across the area, the strong sly flow shud help push
temps warmer. Have trended slightly above the cooler guidance for
today.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015
(Thanksgiving Day - Saturday Night)
A strong wound-up storm system over the Great Basin region of the
western CONUS is expected to move little during this period,
maintaining an active southwest flow aloft over our region, and
shooting out pieces of energy or distrbances our way as well.
The first of these disturbances is expected to arrive late Thursday
afternoon, with essentially a near continuous train thru late
Saturday after that. This will be further augmented by a slow
moving cold front and rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The
cold front will begin moving thru late Thursday afternoon in
northeast MO and will take all of Friday and much of Friday night
to move thru the remainder of the forecast area.
Despite much cooler air ushering in behind the cold front,
temperatures are expected to stay above freezing for most areas thru
this entire period and will keep pcpn-types as all rain.
The one exception could be in parts of northeast MO and west-central
IL late Friday night and early Saturday morning, where temps will be
around the freezing mark. Fortunately, much of the pcpn by that
time should be to the south with only light spotty pcpn currently
anticipated.
Otherwise, the main concern will be the prolonged period of heavy
rainfall--especially for parts of southeast MO and far southern IL--
where rainfall totals may top 4 inches by Saturday morning. A Flood
Watch has already been issued and considering that the rainfall
forecast has changed little since then, if not the heavy QPF axis
sliding a bit further south, no change was needed to the current
area. The only adjustment seriously considered was an extension in
time into Saturday for southeast MO and far southern IL, but wanted
to take another look or two at that to see if the southern trend
continues.
Temps will be quite mild for late November ahead of the front, but
will rapidly drop to below average for daytime maxes behind it, with
readings in some areas not getting out of the 30s. Fortunately,
plenty of warm air aloft should keep the pcpn as rain unless surface
temps can slip below 32F.
(Sunday - Next Wednesday)
Model solutions continue to vary quite a bit out in this period but
the general theme continues to be the storm out west gets nudged
into the main flow and tracks generally east, passing mainly to our
north by Tuesday sliding a surface TROF thru on Monday. Looks like
another round of primarily rain on Monday with this TROF. Temps
look to be around average for this time of year, with clear absence
of any significant cold air surges from the north, but also absent
any strong influence from either the moist Gulf of Mexico or the
much milder air to the south.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015
Ceilings across the FA have increased throughout the evening as
some lower level dry air as worked north across the region.
However, both RAP and NAM low level RH progs are forecasting
renewed saturation during the predawn hours. Since SREF MVFR cig
probabilities are also coming up from southwest MO into west
central IL during the morning hours on Thursday, have introduced a
TEMPO for MVFR ceilings (1500-2000 ft) during the morning at both
KCOU and KUIN. Some lowering of ceilings are also expected in the
STL Metro area, but believe here the bases will remain above 3kft.
Strong southerly low level flow also persists, so will maintain
LLWS in the forecast until gusts come up early Thanksgiving
morning.
Precip is going to remain a hit and miss proposition. Spotty
showers currently extending from mid MO to central IL will likely
persist for several hours, and it`s certainly possible that
additional spotty, light, WAA-driven showers will reform over the
northwest half of the CWA throughout the predawn and morning hours
on Thursday. However, it certainly appears that the main rain
threat will be entering the area tomorrow evening, and
especially after 06z, as cold front finally pushes into western
sections of the CWA. Not only will the rainfall become heavier
and widespread, but ceilings and visbilibites will likely take a
nose dive with FROPA at both KCOU and KUIN after 06z.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR ceilings aoa 4kft are expected overnight
and into most of Thanksgiving Day. Strong low level jet will
maintain LLWS threat until mixing commences and transfers some of
the higher winds to the surface..in the 12-15z time frame.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 67 52 56 39 / 30 100 100 80
Quincy 66 39 41 32 / 70 100 60 30
Columbia 67 40 42 34 / 70 100 80 60
Jefferson City 68 42 45 35 / 70 100 90 70
Salem 65 56 58 42 / 20 100 100 90
Farmington 64 54 57 39 / 30 100 100 90
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning FOR Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St.
Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning FOR
Clinton IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1140 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015
First weak shortwave trough is currently exiting to the northeast
but area will stay in persistent southwesterly flow aloft through
tonight. There will be some weak vort maxes that will move through
the flow aloft that will provide some weak ascent above increasing
moisture convergence because of the low level jet. Rain chances
will increase through the late evening and overnight over central
and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois where the
best low level moisture convergence will be.
Temperatures will not drop too much tonight with strong warm air
advection and dewpoints rising through tonight. Expect lows to be
closer to the warmer MAV MOS guidance.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015
(Thanksgiving Day - Saturday Night)
A strong wound-up storm system over the Great Basin region of the
western CONUS is expected to move little during this period,
maintaining an active southwest flow aloft over our region, and
shooting out pieces of energy or distrbances our way as well.
The first of these disturbances is expected to arrive late Thursday
afternoon, with essentially a near continuous train thru late
Saturday after that. This will be further augmented by a slow
moving cold front and rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The
cold front will begin moving thru late Thursday afternoon in
northeast MO and will take all of Friday and much of Friday night
to move thru the remainder of the forecast area.
Despite much cooler air ushering in behind the cold front,
temperatures are expected to stay above freezing for most areas thru
this entire period and will keep pcpn-types as all rain.
The one exception could be in parts of northeast MO and west-central
IL late Friday night and early Saturday morning, where temps will be
around the freezing mark. Fortunately, much of the pcpn by that
time should be to the south with only light spotty pcpn currently
anticipated.
Otherwise, the main concern will be the prolonged period of heavy
rainfall--especially for parts of southeast MO and far southern IL--
where rainfall totals may top 4 inches by Saturday morning. A Flood
Watch has already been issued and considering that the rainfall
forecast has changed little since then, if not the heavy QPF axis
sliding a bit further south, no change was needed to the current
area. The only adjustment seriously considered was an extension in
time into Saturday for southeast MO and far southern IL, but wanted
to take another look or two at that to see if the southern trend
continues.
Temps will be quite mild for late November ahead of the front, but
will rapidly drop to below average for daytime maxes behind it, with
readings in some areas not getting out of the 30s. Fortunately,
plenty of warm air aloft should keep the pcpn as rain unless surface
temps can slip below 32F.
(Sunday - Next Wednesday)
Model solutions continue to vary quite a bit out in this period but
the general theme continues to be the storm out west gets nudged
into the main flow and tracks generally east, passing mainly to our
north by Tuesday sliding a surface TROF thru on Monday. Looks like
another round of primarily rain on Monday with this TROF. Temps
look to be around average for this time of year, with clear absence
of any significant cold air surges from the north, but also absent
any strong influence from either the moist Gulf of Mexico or the
much milder air to the south.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015
Ceilings across the FA have increased throughout the evening as
some lower level dry air as worked north across the region.
However, both RAP and NAM low level RH progs are forecasting
renewed saturation during the predawn hours. Since SREF MVFR cig
probabilities are also coming up from southwest MO into west
central IL during the morning hours on Thursday, have introduced a
TEMPO for MVFR ceilings (1500-2000 ft) during the morning at both
KCOU and KUIN. Some lowering of ceilings are also expected in the
STL Metro area, but believe here the bases will remain above 3kft.
Strong southerly low level flow also persists, so will maintain
LLWS in the forecast until gusts come up early Thanksgiving
morning.
Precip is going to remain a hit and miss proposition. Spotty
showers currently extending from mid MO to central IL will likely
persist for several hours, and it`s certainly possible that
additional spotty, light, WAA-driven showers will reform over the
northwest half of the CWA throughout the predawn and morning hours
on Thursday. However, it certainly appears that the main rain
threat will be entering the area tomorrow evening, and
especially after 06z, as cold front finally pushes into western
sections of the CWA. Not only will the rainfall become heavier
and widespread, but ceilings and visbilibites will likely take a
nose dive with FROPA at both KCOU and KUIN after 06z.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR ceilings aoa 4kft are expected overnight
and into most of Thanksgiving Day. Strong low level jet will
maintain LLWS threat until mixing commences and transfers some of
the higher winds to the surface..in the 12-15z time frame.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday night FOR
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St.
Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve
MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday night FOR
Clinton IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1250 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS CONTINUES WITH MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE
THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE LOOKOUT AND THIS RAIN IS SLOWLY WORKING
IT WAY TO THE COAST NORTH OF US. THE HRRR AND OTHER GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COASTAL AREAS MAYBE SEEING AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAINLY NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A REALLY INTERESTING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPS THANKSGIVING DAY: AN UPPER RIDGE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE
SE STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS DISTURBANCE HELPS CUT OFF A BROAD
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHICH THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SINK INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER US SHOULD
HELP DISSIPATE ANY CIRRUS ADVECTING EASTWARD FROM STORMINESS IN
THE PLAINS STATES AND WILL MAINTAIN A VERY DRY AIRMASS THROUGHOUT
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
BELOW 800 MB (ABOUT 7000 FEET AGL) ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL BRING IN MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS APPEAR LESS
BULLISH ON THE DEPTH AND TIME WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT FOR CLOUD COVER. WATCHING HOW DIFFICULT A TIME THE
ATLANTIC STRATOCUMULUS HAS HAD PUSHING WESTWARD TODAY GIVES ME
PAUSE TO FORECAST ANYTHING WORSE THAN "PARTLY CLOUDY" THURSDAY.
THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ACTUALLY DRY OUT SLIGHTLY FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS ARE PREFERRED OVER THE 12Z NAM
GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE BETTER HANDLING OF THE DOMINANCE OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH LATER THIS WEEK. THE NAM IS LIKELY WRONG
WITH ITS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
CAROLINAS...THEN PINWHEELING IT WESTWARD AROUND THE TOPSIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW. IN THE NAM THIS FEATURE DISTORTS OUR LOW-LEVEL WIND
PATTERN AND CREATES COLD ADVECTION THAT DOESN`T APPEAR IN THE
OTHER TWO MODELS. FORECAST HIGHS/LOWS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED VERY NEAR
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO GIVE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FITS NEXT WEEK. PERIOD BEGINS WITH FLATTENING
5H RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION WARM AND DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MID
LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO TRANSITION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN SLOWLY STARTS MOVING EAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONT STALLED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON SUN WILL WORK ITS
WAY EAST MON INTO TUE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE LOCAL AREA AND PRECIP POTENTIAL MON INTO TUE LOOKS
LIMITED. THE FRONT ALSO DRIFTS EAST MON/TUE ENDING UP STALLED IN THE
KY/TN VALLEYS AS SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EAST COAST HOLDS STRONG.
EVENTUALLY 5H LOW EMERGING FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAINS IN QUESTION. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP POP CAPPED AT LOW CHC THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO FOG LATE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS
AND NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT. MODELS REMAIN IN A BIT OF A
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS HAVE KEPT THE
POTENTIAL IN GOING FORECAST WITH MAINLY VFR ALONG THE COAST AND
TEMPO MVFR...AND PREVAILING MVFR FOG INLAND...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF IFR. CONFIDENCE FOR ANY IFR REMAINS LOW ATTM. AFTER
DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH LINGERING
SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KT
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 18 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...
SUBSIDING BY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE NORTHEAST WINDS
TO BLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 KT. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET WITH A FEW 7 FOOTERS FARTHER OFF THE COAST.
SEAS JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WILL BE SLIGHT LESS AS
THESE WATERS ARE PROTECTED FROM THE LONGER FETCH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN LATER THIS WEEK...
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NE WINDS AT A HEFTY 15-20 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WITH SUCH A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AFFECTED BY THESE WINDS LOOK FOR SEAS TO INCREASE TO 7-8 FEET AT
10-20 MILE DISTANCES FROM SHORE NEAR CAPE FEAR AND EAST OF WINYAH
BAY. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8-10 SECONDS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN ROUGHER OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM WHERE
CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST. GRADIENT FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST FLOW AT OR ABOVE 15 KT WILL KEEP SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS EXPOSED TO
NORTHEAST FLOW. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 FT NEAR SHORE TO AS HIGH AS 7
FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...TIDES MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS AT
THE BEACHES WITH THURSDAY`S 7 AM HIGH TIDE. ONLY A 0.5 TO 0.7 FOOT
ANOMALY WILL BE ENOUGH TO REACH THE 6.0 FT MLLW FLOOD LEVEL AT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND 7.5 FT MLLW AT MYRTLE BEACH. THIS APPEARS
POSSIBLE GIVEN SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RJD/SGL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
CURRENTLY...A LARGE COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND OVER MONTANA. AT UPPER LEVELS A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA TO NEAR THE
MT/ND/SASK/MAN BORDER AREA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE
WESTERLIES WAS IN THE FORM OF A NEARLY CUTOFF LOW OVER NEVADA...WITH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUED TO SHOW
OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
SOME CLEARING SKIES OVER NORTHERN MONTANA. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
UPDATE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN HIGH RES MODELS REGARDING CLOUD COVER BUT
THE RAP 13 H925 RH FIELD MAY HAVE THE BEST SOLUTION WITH A VERY
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE STATE
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LOOK TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
MADE SOME TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THE WEST...AS APPARENT CLEARING OR
AT LEAST TEMPORARY CLEARING IN THE FAR WEST NEAR BEACH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND ZERO. ADJUSTED MINIMUM TEMPS AND
HOURLY TEMPS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS CLEARING
IN EASTERN MONTANA APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER. HOWEVER A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL MAKE LITTLE
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE RAP13 925RH HAS THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT LOW CLOUDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY WITH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINING CLOUDY THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. FOLLOWED THE
HIGH RESOLUTION NMM EAST WHICH IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAS THIS
EVENINGS LIGHT SNOW CAPTURED IN THE SOUTH. HAVE EXTENDED THE SNOW
IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND ENTIRE FAR SOUTH THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
IN THE WEST EXPECTING SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
THIS COVERED WELL AND THE TREND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK GIVEN ABOVE
SCENARIO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
LATEST REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING
TO STRADDLE THE FAR SOUTHERN BORDER...WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
COVERING MOST REPORTING STATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. SNOW AMOUNTS
OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IN THE NORTH HAVE VARIED FROM A TRACE
AT WILLISTON AND MINOT...TO BETWEEN 0.01 TO 0.02 AT WATFORD CITY
AND TIOGA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM SASKATCHEWAN. THE RAP13 SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAP13
MAINTAINS A SWATH OF HIGH 925MB-850MB RH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL AWAIT THE 00Z
SUITE OF DATA EVALUATE BEYOND TONIGHT. FOR THIS UPDATE WILL SLOW
DOWN THE DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND MAINTAIN
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS AND INCOMING UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING.
CURRENTLY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TWO AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE FIRST
VERY LIGHT IF ANYTHING ACROSS THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...AND THE SECOND A BAND OF LIGHT TO
POSSIBLY EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV WHICH EJECTED
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW LAST NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY WITH THE MORE ENHANCED RADAR
RETURNS. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS AREA IN THE HWO FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SPREAD WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. THIS WILL ACT TO END THE SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SKY
COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO MID TEENS...AND A COLD DAY FOR
THANKSGIVING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WIDE ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THIS WEEKEND`S STORM.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF
THE 12 UTC RUNS WOULD PLACE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DO WRAP IN A
SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY MONDAY. UTILIZING A BLEND OF
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS YIELDS AROUND AN INCH OR TWO TOTAL OF SNOW
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 FOR FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
LIKELY MELT MOST OR ALL SNOW THAT ACCUMULATES OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE MAIN LOW SHIFTS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH.
OTHERWISE...THE LONG TERM APPEARS QUIET...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS AND TEENS/TWENTIES FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
VARIOUS MODELS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE. WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IN MONTANA HAD BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY
DESPITE VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTING CLEARING. THUS TAFS
INDICATE MVFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AERODROMES
OF KISN/KDIK THURSDAY MORNING 12Z TO 15Z...WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER KMOT/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY DEALING WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. TO START...HAVE AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/VERY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
AREA. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO LAST ANY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS IN
ANY ONE LOCATION...SO OPTING TO NOT ISSUE HEADLINE NORTH OF EXISTING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MORNING WILL BE ON SCATTERED PRECIP AREA LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE BULK OF APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF A TYNDALL-SIOUX FALLS-SLAYTON MN
LINE. WARM LAYER MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 850-750MB ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IS THE PROBLEMATIC COMPONENT OF THE FORECAST. NAM/RAP HOLD ON TO
WARM LAYER LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS COOLS THE
LAYER MORE QUICKLY. A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WHICH SOLUTION WILL PAN
OUT...ESPECIALLY SINCE SURFACE COOLING HAS BEEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BLENDED APPROACH GIVES RATE OF
COOLING ALOFT SIMILAR TO RECENT RAP RUNS AND SEE NO STRONG REASON TO
DIVERGE FROM THAT AT THIS POINT. END RESULT IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN OTHER WORDS...STILL LOOKING FOR THE
HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10-0.15 INCH IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...
AND LIGHT ICING OUTSIDE THE EARLY MORNING FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT AS
FAR NORTH AS PONCA-LE MARS-SPIRIT LAKE. THIS SHOULD BE TOPPED BY AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH
AND BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. GOING LOCATION OF ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
THREAT STILL GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MID AND
UPPER 20S...WITH LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A LITTLE ON SATURDAY IN A TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MUDDLED
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ON SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE
SPLIT WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM DUMBELLING A VORT MAX AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THUS BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND
GEM ROTATE THE VORT MAX INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...KEEPING LOW END POPS IN OUR WEST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT. LOWS LOOKING TO BE
IN THE TEENS.
WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS SOMEWHAT CONVERGE ON BRINGING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...BRINGING A
BETTER CONSENSUS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOOKS TO FINALLY SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OUR AREA DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OF NORMAL WITH
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30 AND LOWS UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING. MVFR AND
IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN NORTHWEST IOWA
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF RAIN...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY THURSDAY ELSEWHERE...HOWEVER THE WINTRY MIX WILL BECOME MORE
STEADY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SWITCHING TO ENTIRELY
SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN MIXED PRECIPITATION...WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW
2 MILES ONCE THE SWITCH TO SNOWFALL OCCURS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ071.
MN...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ003-
013-014-020>022-031-032.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-
014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1110 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
.AVIATION...
AREAWIDE CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO IFR GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...NEAR 10 KT OVERNIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. DECKS WILL MOST LIKELY
STICK TO IFR...WITH TEMP IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR OR MAYBE AN
HOUR OR THREE OF LIFR GOING INTO THE PRE-DAWN THANKSGIVING HOURS.
LIGHT SHOWERS...MAYBE DRIZZLE...FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THANKSGIVING CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MID TO HIGH
END MVFR...MAYBE BRIEF VFR...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR DECKS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER 2K FOOT SATURATION SHOULD RE-INTRODUCE
LOW END MVFR/IFR LATE PERIOD CEILINGS. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
THURSDAY SEA FOG MAY INTRUDE ONSHORE THAT WOULD QUICKLY LOWER GLS
VISBYS TO VLIFR. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE FORMING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SE TX THIS
EVE. A FEW SHWRS ARE MOVING NW JUST EAST OF THE SE TX COASTAL
WATERS. LATEST HRRR INDICATING THAT A FEW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING.
THEREFORE...ADDED A 20 POP AND MENTION OF SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NOT SEEING ANY SEA FOG OFFSHORE THIS EVE. APPEARS DW PTS OFFSHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST NEED TO INCREASE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES FROM
CURRENT VALUES TO GET SEA FOG FORMATION TO OCCUR. 33
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/
AVIATION...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SATURATE THE LOWER ONE TO TWO
THOUSAND FEET OVER THE COMING HOURS...MVFR DECKS WITH PERIODIC
IFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND A CONTINUED SOUTHEAST BREEZE. STREAMER
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF METRO AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DISTURBANCES
MOVING UP AHEAD OF A WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS LATER IN THE DAY...INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERY WEATHER OVER CLL/UTS DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 76 68 75 51 / 10 50 40 70 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 76 69 77 63 / 20 30 30 50 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 75 69 75 67 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COUPLED WITH RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A LONG
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WAS SENDING
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING MOST OF THIS
RAIN ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL
IA/NORTHERN IL...WITHIN BAND OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THROUGH WESTERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA. OTHERWISE... FAIRLY GOOD
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE AREA...RANGING FROM MIDDLE/UPPER
30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI.
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES VERY LITTLE TODAY WHILE A
WEAK AREA AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO SOUTHEAST WI BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. THERMAL
PROFILE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CAUSE A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WI BY LATER THIS MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH THE
DAY..TRANSITIONING TO WINTRY MIX/SNOW THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THIS PRECIPITATION EAST
OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...COULD
SEE LOSS OF CLOUD ICE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AND LIGHT
GLAZING.
BOTTOM LINE...AS OF NOW...LOOKS LIKE 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM CHARLES CITY IA TO WINONA MN AND NEILLSVILLE WI...WITH A
DUSTING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. BASED ON THIS AND
GLAZING POTENTIAL...WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
PLACE AND HAVE DAYSHIFT EVALUATE IF EXPANSION EASTWARD IS NEEDED
BASED ON PRECIPITATION TYPE TRENDS/INTENSITY WITH 12Z MODEL RUN.
DRY/COLDER WEATHER IS THEN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S.
SNOW/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT NOT GOING TO NAIL DOWN AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF FOCUSED FORCING. OTHERWISE..SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS HAVE FINALLY MOVED INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GIVEN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL IA AS OF 26.0530Z...
ADJUSTED PRECIP TO REACH KLSE BY 26.09Z AND KRST BY 26.14Z...
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIP NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY INTO
THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. THINK
THERE WILL BE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF A RA/PL/POSSIBLY FZRA MIX
AT KRST BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...BUT CHANGE OVER SHOULD BE
LATER AND QUICKER AT KLSE WITH LESS OF A MIX. LIGHT SNOW WILL END
AT KRST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SNOW AT KLSE
THROUGH 27.06Z. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORE HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
KLSE...NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 10 TO 16 KTS WILL BE THE RULE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-029-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR WIZ032.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-095.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR MNZ079-086-087-094.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ009-018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ008.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1142 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
NEVADA...TROUGHING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND BROAD RIDGING
FROM TEXAS INTO NEW ENGLAND. REAL ONLY SHORTWAVE OF NOTE WAS IN
NORTHWEST KS. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW UNDERNEATH THE BROAD RIDGING
HELPING TO PROPEL WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. 925MB TEMP AT
MPX JUMPED FROM 2C AT 00Z TO 6C AT 12Z. 50F DEWPOINTS WERE
APPROACHING THE IA/MO BORDER...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LAYED UP FROM
DLH TO LINCOLN NE. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS
BACK SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ALONE HAS PUSHED
READINGS WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW 50S FOR LOCATIONS THAT SAW
SOME PEAKS OF SUN. THE RECENT WARMTH HAS REALLY DENTED THE SNOWPACK
TOO...WITH DEPTHS MOSTLY UNDER 5 INCHES PER 12Z COOP REPORTS...WHICH
HAS GREATLY REDUCED ITS IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED YET...AS THE CLOUD LAYER
REMAINS SOMEWHAT SHALLOW AND RELATIVELY SPEAKING HIGH BASED / ALL
EITHER HIGH MVFR OR VFR IN AVIATION TERMS/.
MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES SLIGHTLY EAST...WE SEE THE FRONT OFF TO OUR
WEST MOVE ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THU.
THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
PUSHING WARM/MOIST AIR INTO US...NOTED IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
CLIMBING FROM 0.5-0.75 INCHES AT 18Z TODAY TO 0.75-1 INCH AT 12Z
THU. READINGS WILL LIKELY CLIMB THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
TOO...BEFORE FALLING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS ANTICIPATING
THANKSGIVING DAY CALENDAR HIGH TO OCCUR TONIGHT. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALSO OCCURS FROM NEAR THE SURFACE TO 6000 FT...WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT TAKING PLACE IN THIS LAYER. THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE
DRIZZLE. IN FACT...LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO SHOULD SEE FLAT
OUT HIGHER QPF / LIGHT RAIN TAKE PLACE. THIS IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME
THAT THE SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
THE DRIZZLE AND INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS EVIDENT IN
ALL MODEL QPF PROGS...WITH VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS TONIGHT...GIVEN TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING AND PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ABOVE THE LOWER
CLOUDS TO PRECLUDE ANY SEEDER-FEEDER TO INTRODUCE SNOW CRYSTALS.
THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY GETS MORE INTERESTING. THE TWO
UPPER TROUGHS OFF TO OUR WEST ATTEMPT TO PHASE...WHICH IN TURN
INTENSIFIES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND THE FRONT THAT MOSTLY PASSED
THROUGH OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFIES THE UPPER JET AND THROUGH THERMAL
WIND RELATIONSHIP...INTENSIFIES THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED TO HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST...THE NET RESULT IS FOR
PRECIPITATION TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...LUCKILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN BUT DEFINITELY NOT
ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS...LOOKS TO FALL IN CLAYTON/GRANT
COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION EXISTS OF STRONGEST AND
DEEPEST FRONTOGENESIS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO EVEN SEE SOME LIGHTNING NEAR DUBUQUE WITH UP
TO 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED. FARTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPER SATURATION FROM THE
SURFACE TO THE TROPOPAUSE TO PREVENT LOSS OF SNOW/ICE
CRYSTALS...SHOULD HELP GRADUALLY TURN PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET
THEN SNOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FROM MCW TO RST AND EAU. SINCE
THE FORCING IS WEAKER COMPARED TO CLAYTON/GRANT
COUNTIES...PRECIPITATION IS LIGHTER...BUT STILL LIKELY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE TRAVELING ISSUES. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
ON THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FINALLY
BEGINS TO MAKE SOME BETTER PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH
ALL OF THE FORCING...PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE THAT WAS OVER OUR
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO THE EAST. APPEARS IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE
LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FULLY EXIT OUR AREA.
UNTIL THEN...HOWEVER...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION NOTED BY
925MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -5C TO 5C AT 00Z FRI TO -8 TO -5C BY 12Z
FRI...COMBINED WITH A DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN SHOULD HELP TRANSITION
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING. NOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
WHEN THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN...THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS WELL AS
NOTED IN THE CURRENT AND PAST RUNS OF THE GFS. APPEARS ANY SNOW OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STILL ENOUGH OF AN
IMPACT TO WARRANT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHWEST.
SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE AMOUNT FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF APPEARS TOO
LITTLE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
WEATHER GOES INTO QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL LAND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE...AND THE AREA GOES
UNDER A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY LATE SATURDAY. 925MB TEMPS
HOLD BETWEEN -5 AND -8C FOR FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE WARMING
TO 0 TO -2C SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE READINGS SUPPORT
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MS RIVER
COULD STAY JUST BELOW 30 ON FRIDAY.
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK PER THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WHICH GRADUALLY MAKES
ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION MON THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THEN THE MOISTURE
GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD SUCH THAT ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. CERTAINLY SOME TIMING AND
OTHER SYNOPTIC DIFFERENCES THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ONLY IN
THE 20- 40 RANGE AT THIS TIME. COOL AIR UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW
COMBINED WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WHICH RESULTS IN SNOW AS THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. DEFINITELY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO LOOK AT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS HAVE FINALLY MOVED INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GIVEN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL IA AS OF 26.0530Z...
ADJUSTED PRECIP TO REACH KLSE BY 26.09Z AND KRST BY 26.14Z...
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIP NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY INTO
THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. THINK
THERE WILL BE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF A RA/PL/POSSIBLY FZRA MIX
AT KRST BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...BUT CHANGE OVER SHOULD BE
LATER AND QUICKER AT KLSE WITH LESS OF A MIX. LIGHT SNOW WILL END
AT KRST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SNOW AT KLSE
THROUGH 27.06Z. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORE HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
KLSE...NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 10 TO 16 KTS WILL BE THE RULE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ017-029-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ032.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ088-095.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ079-086-087-094.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ009-018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ008.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED TODAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY EAST
OF TUCSON. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. PRECIPITATION IS MOVING
HURRIEDLY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT NEARLY 40 MPH. THIS IS KEEPING
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WITH A
FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NV/UT BORDER IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
TODAY WITH NO UPSTREAM FEATURE TO MOVE IT ALONG UNTIL LATER ON THIS
WEEKEND. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWED SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR TRYING TO
WRAP AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...WHICH WOULD AID IN KEEP PRECIP
CONFINED TO NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER TODAY AND TOMORROW. SEEMS LIKE THE
LATEST RUNS OF VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS NOTION
AS WELL. CLOUD COVER AND LOWER THICKNESSES WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS
ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. NO UPDATES THIS
MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/18Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4-9K FT AGL WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD
ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS WEST OF KTUS.
SCT -SHRA AND EVEN SOME EMBEDDED -TSRA PSBL WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF -TSRA
OUT OF TERMINAL FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SW WINDS OF
MAINLY LESS THAN 12 KTS THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SW WINDS 12 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KOLS/KALK/KDUG TERMINALS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
AFTER 27/02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS EVEN SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON AND
ESPECIALLY IN COCHISE COUNTY. LOCATIONS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THERE WILL REMAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE EAST OF
TUCSON TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
WELL. THEN...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK 20-FT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...LATEST HRRR SOLUTION SUGGESTED THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST TODAY. THIS LOOKED LIKE A REASONABLE
SCENARIO BASED ON THE GFS WHICH SHOWED SOME DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO
THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION TODAY. MODELS
CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS UPPER LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATION OVER THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE EJECTING
NORTHEAST. THUS...THE BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TODAY INTO
FRIDAY GENERALLY EAST OF TUCSON. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO THE
WEATHER WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRENCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1050+MB SURFACE
HIGH PRES (+3 ST DEV) STILL CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND RIDGING
SW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. MEANWHILE, SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSOURI VALLEY. 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY SHOWING SOME
SC PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC
COUNTIES THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH EAST FLOW IN LOW LEVELS.
AREA OF ADDITIONAL CLOUDS PUSHING EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
AS PER USUAL, THE NAM TENDS TO OVERPLAY ITS HAND WITH ITS PROGGED
LLVL MOISTURE FIELDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND ACCORDINGLY KEEPS THE
AREA IN BKN TO OVC CLOUDS. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE HIGH RES
MODELS DEPICTION OF THE RAP AND HRRR OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...MIXING OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
AS FOR TEMPS, THE MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH ANOTHER DRY, MILD DAY EXPECTED. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
CENTRAL AND E/SE SECTIONS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S IN THE NW...LOW TO
MID40S I-95 CORRIDOR...AND U40S TO AROUND 50 SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND MILDER WX
EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROF
JUST OFF THE SE COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT MSTR / PCPN PROGGED TO STAY
SE OF THE LOCAL AREA AND OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. THUS...SILENT
POPS (<14%) CONTINUE. H85 TEMPS/THICKNESS TOOLS BOTH SUPPORT HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.
00Z/26 MODELS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT. PREFERRED
GFS/ECMWF BLENDED SOLUTION DEPICTS A WEAKENING BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SAT NGT. LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA ON SATURDAY, AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN AND PUSH BACK POP...KEEPING SAT AND MUCH
OF SAT NIGHT DRY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA (EXCEPTION IS SLIGHT POP
OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS). HAVE ALSO PUSHED TEMPS UPWARD IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME MORE TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR OUR AREA ON
SAT. INCRG CLDNS SHOULD TEMPER HIGHS A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT
THINKING IS THE UPTICK IN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY IS
JUSTIFIED. BUMPED MAXIMA UP 2-3 DEG INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SOUTH...BUT WITH COOLER U50S OVER THE ERN SHORE / NRN NECK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLOCKY PATTERN PERSISTS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER THE WRN
CONUS...LENDING TO A DIFFICULT/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO RESIDE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SWD DURING THE DAY
SUN...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE DAY SUN. FRONT
WEAKENS SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...RIDGING SWD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARISE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OH VALLEY MON AND TUE. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MON. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD
THE ECMWF BEGINNING MON NIGHT AND TUE...WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THRU THE REGION LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE CHANCE
POPS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. DRYING TREND EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE MIDWEST.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER STEADY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS THRU THE EXTENDED. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG THIS MORNING AS AREAS OF FROST
BURN OFF AND CONDENSE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION WILL PREVENT AN INCOMING MARINE CLOUD DECK FROM
IMPACTING KECG. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A COMBINATION OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND FAIR WX
CUMULUS AROUND 6 KFT AGL THIS AFTN...DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
WINDS AOB 10KT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STALL/WEAKEN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
WITH PERIODS OF -SHRA (IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR COASTAL TAF SITES) AS THE FRONT STALLS/WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STACKED IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY AND FRIDAY. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10-15KT...SEAS 3-4FT...AND
WAVES 1-2FT. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONGER RESULTANT
WINDS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND A LONG NE-E FETCH WILL PUSH SEAS
TOWARD 5 FT EARLY THIS EVENING IN FAR SRN WATERS...WHICH WILL THEN
BUILD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE THIS EVENING FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STALL/WEAKEN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WINDS
MAINTAIN A NLY WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT. SEAS SHOULD
STAY ELEVATED AT 4-6FT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO NLY ONSHORE WINDS
AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 3-5FT SAT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
542 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
FIRST...HERE WERE THE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE IMPENDING
SYSTEM FOR TODAY. THE POP GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENED QUITE A
BIT...PULLING THE MENTIONABLE PRECIP LINE DOWN TO ABOUT A REDWOOD
FALLS...ST. MICHAEL TO CAMBRIDGE LINE. TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WAS
DELAYED A LITTLE SOUTHEAST OF A FAIRMONT...RED WING TO LADYSMITH
LINE. QPF WAS REDUCED SOME...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST.
WITH LOWER QPF AND A DELAYED TRANSITION TO SNOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WERE CUT BACK AS WELL...WITH UP TO ABOUT 2 INCHES NOW FORECAST IN
THE ADVISORY WITH AMOUNTS IN THE TWIN CITIES RANGING FROM A TRACE IN
THE NW METRO WITH AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH IN THE SE METRO. FINALLY...WE
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIP SOME THIS MORNING AND STARTED PUSHING
THE END OF PRECIP TO THE EAST A BIT FASTER TONIGHT.
THE FRONT THAT WORKED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS STRETCHED OUT
FROM THE NE TX PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO THE I-90/I-94 SPLIT IN WI AND
ON UP TOWARD THE MARQUETTE MICHIGAN AREA AT 3 AM. SPC MESOANLYIS
SHOWS THAT FGEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS REALLY CENTERED DOWN IN THE 925-
850MB AREA...WITH NOT MUCH FGEN NOTED AT H7. WITH THE FORCING DOWN
LOW...THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CLOSER TO THE FRONT...HENCE
THE NUDGING OF QPF TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN FACT...EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN
OF THE HRRR KEEPS NUDGING THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...WITH OUR BEST SHOT AT PRECIP COMING FROM THE ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY STARTING TO BLOSSOM ON RADAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COMING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO RIGHT NOW GOING MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE MPX AREA...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN HOW FAR THIS PRECIP CURRENTLY IS /NW TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS OPPOSED TO WRN KS...WHICH IS WHERE MODELS WITH A MORE
NW SOLUTION WERE SHOWING IT SHOULD BE/.
FOR P-TYPE...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A MESS. FIRST OF ALL...THE COLD
AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH EAU CLAIRE STILL ABOVE 40 AT 4
AM. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CAMS ALONG WITH THE RAP
SHOW A MELTING WARM NOSE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS SC/SE MN UNTIL
CLOSE TO 21Z...WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING MORE
SLEET/FZRA INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY SWITCHING TO SNOW
THERE. THE WARMER TEMPS THIS MORNING DO NOT HELP THINGS
EITHER...ESPECIALLY IN WI...WHERE EAU CLAIRE MAY NOT SEE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER 21Z...WHICH IS A BIG REASON WHY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK TO BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OUT IN
THE FAR ERN MPX CWA. FOR TONIGHT...STILL HAVE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO
FZDZ AS THE PRECIP IS MOVING OUT...THOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY
OVERDONE...AS THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ICE CRYSTALS WILL LIKELY
SIGNAL THE END OF PRECIP AS WELL.
WITH THE ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...SAW NO NEED TO CHANGE IT WITH THOSE
AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TODAY...THOUGH
WITH CURRENT AMOUNTS EXPECTED...WOULD HAVE PROBABLY NOT ISSUED AN
ADVY IF ONE WERE NOT ALREADY OUT THERE.
TONIGHT...WE SEE STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN WITH SKIES QUICKLY
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE CLEAR SKIES WITH CONTINUE COLD
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL START TO BLACK FRIDAY...WITH
LOCATIONS OUT IN WEST CENTRAL MN LIKELY STARTING OUT NEAR 10
DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE MONTH SO
FAR/ALTHOUGH THATS NOT SAYING MUCH BECAUSE THE FORECAST AREA IS
AROUND +9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER./ ONE THING OF NOTE
ONFRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS THE EXTREMELY DRY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH HAVE PWATS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGY MINIMUM BETWEEN
0.07-0.10". THE AIRMASS MODERATES THIS WEEKEND AND SUNSHINE
COMBINED WITH MAINLY BROWN GROUND SHOULD GET OUR HIGHS INTO THE
MID 30S...RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SLOW PASSAGE OF
A CLOSED UPPER LOW - THE ONE THATS CURRENTLY SPINNING AWAY ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. UNLIKE...THE SNOW EVENT /OR LACK THERE OF/ TODAY
THAT HAS P-TYPE QUESTIONS AND AN FGEN BAND THAT HAS SLOWLY
DRIFTED FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...THERE IS ACTUALLY DECENT
CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT MON-TUE. WE ALWAYS
HAVE GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH EVENTS LIKE TODAY BECAUSE THE BAND
OF SNOW IS FOCUSED AND NOT VERY WIDE IN SCALE. SO...IF YOU DON`T
GET THE LOCATION QUITE RIGHT...LOCATIONS JUST OUTSIDE THE BAND
GET VERY LITTLE SNOW...AND THAT`S WITHOUT CONSIDERING THE WARMER
TEMPS AND REDUCED SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO SOME OF THE PRECIP FALLING
AS RAIN/SLEET AS IS THE CASE WITH TODAYS EVENT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS PASSAGE WILL
BE SLOW AND THE THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A 24-30HR WINDOW WITH LIFT OVER A VERY
LARGE SPATIAL AREA. IN FACT...THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OFF THE
GFS/ECMWF HAVE MEASURABLE SNOW FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO
ILLINOIS.THEREFORE...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE OUR FORECAST FOR
PROBABILITY OF SNOW INCREASE IN THAT MON-TUE TIME FRAME. IT
APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT A LOT OF LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW IN MN/WI...BUT IT WOULD OCCUR OVER A PROLONGED
WINDOW. UNLIKE BANDED SNOW /LIKE TODAY/...THE WIDESPREAD FORCING
MEANS IT WILL BE TOUGHER FOR THIS ONE TO "MISS" THE AREA
COMPLETELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
HRRR/HOPWRF/NAM ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT THE SNOW SOUTHEAST FOR
TODAY...SO HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH SNOW MENTION AT RWF/MSP/RNH
TODAY. LEFT EAU TAF PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED...THOUGH -RA COULD HOLD
ON LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THERE. STRATUS WILL HANG TOUGH
TODAY...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING CIGS TO DROP MUCH BELOW WHERE THEY
ARE NOW. HRRR IS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS TODAY/TONIGHT...THOUGH STRATUS RIGHT NOW EXTENDS CLEAR UP
INTO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC...SO CURRENT TAFS AND LAMP GUIDANCE MAY
BE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING SKIES OUT TONIGHT.
KMSP...IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK A BIT SHAKIER FOR SEEING SNOW AT
MSP...AND OUR BEST BET NOW IS LOOKING TO COME BETWEEN 16Z AND
20Z...WHICH IS WHEN RADAR RETURNS EXPANDING OVER ERN NEBRASKA MOVE
UP THIS DIRECTION. MOST GUIDANCE IS NOW HOLDING SNOWFALL AT MSP TO
AROUND JUST A HALF INCH...SO WILL BE PRETTY MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM
THAT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VRB.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ024>028.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ077-
078-084-085-091>093.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
FIRST...HERE WERE THE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE IMPENDING
SYSTEM FOR TODAY. THE POP GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENED QUITE A
BIT...PULLING THE MENTIONABLE PRECIP LINE DOWN TO ABOUT A REDWOOD
FALLS...ST. MICHAEL TO CAMBRIDGE LINE. TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WAS
DELAYED A LITTLE SOUTHEAST OF A FAIRMONT...RED WING TO LADYSMITH
LINE. QPF WAS REDUCED SOME...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST.
WITH LOWER QPF AND A DELAYED TRANSITION TO SNOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WERE CUT BACK AS WELL...WITH UP TO ABOUT 2 INCHES NOW FORECAST IN
THE ADVISORY WITH AMOUNTS IN THE TWIN CITIES RANGING FROM A TRACE IN
THE NW METRO WITH AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH IN THE SE METRO. FINALLY...WE
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIP SOME THIS MORNING AND STARTED PUSHING
THE END OF PRECIP TO THE EAST A BIT FASTER TONIGHT.
THE FRONT THAT WORKED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS STRETCHED OUT
FROM THE NE TX PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO THE I-90/I-94 SPLIT IN WI AND
ON UP TOWARD THE MARQUETTE MICHIGAN AREA AT 3 AM. SPC MESOANLYIS
SHOWS THAT FGEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS REALLY CENTERED DOWN IN THE 925-
850MB AREA...WITH NOT MUCH FGEN NOTED AT H7. WITH THE FORCING DOWN
LOW...THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CLOSER TO THE FRONT...HENCE
THE NUDGING OF QPF TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN FACT...EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN
OF THE HRRR KEEPS NUDGING THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...WITH OUR BEST SHOT AT PRECIP COMING FROM THE ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY STARTING TO BLOSSOM ON RADAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COMING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO RIGHT NOW GOING MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE MPX AREA...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN HOW FAR THIS PRECIP CURRENTLY IS /NW TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS OPPOSED TO WRN KS...WHICH IS WHERE MODELS WITH A MORE
NW SOLUTION WERE SHOWING IT SHOULD BE/.
FOR P-TYPE...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A MESS. FIRST OF ALL...THE COLD
AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH EAU CLAIRE STILL ABOVE 40 AT 4
AM. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CAMS ALONG WITH THE RAP
SHOW A MELTING WARM NOSE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS SC/SE MN UNTIL
CLOSE TO 21Z...WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING MORE
SLEET/FZRA INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY SWITCHING TO SNOW
THERE. THE WARMER TEMPS THIS MORNING DO NOT HELP THINGS
EITHER...ESPECIALLY IN WI...WHERE EAU CLAIRE MAY NOT SEE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER 21Z...WHICH IS A BIG REASON WHY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK TO BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OUT IN
THE FAR ERN MPX CWA. FOR TONIGHT...STILL HAVE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO
FZDZ AS THE PRECIP IS MOVING OUT...THOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY
OVERDONE...AS THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ICE CRYSTALS WILL LIKELY
SIGNAL THE END OF PRECIP AS WELL.
WITH THE ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...SAW NO NEED TO CHANGE IT WITH THOSE
AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TODAY...THOUGH
WITH CURRENT AMOUNTS EXPECTED...WOULD HAVE PROBABLY NOT ISSUED AN
ADVY IF ONE WERE NOT ALREADY OUT THERE.
TONIGHT...WE SEE STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN WITH SKIES QUICKLY
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE CLEAR SKIES WITH CONTINUE COLD
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL START TO BLACK FRIDAY...WITH
LOCATIONS OUT IN WEST CENTRAL MN LIKELY STARTING OUT NEAR 10
DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE MONTH SOFAR
/ALTHOUGH THATS NOT SAYING MUCH BECAUSE THE FORECAST AREA IS
AROUND +9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER./ ONE THING OF NOTE
ONFRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS THE EXTREMELY DRY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH HAVE PWATS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGY MINIMUM BETWEEN
0.07-0.10". THE AIRMASS MODERATES THIS WEEKEND AND SUNSHINE
COMBINED WITH MAINLY BROWN GROUND SHOULD GET OUR HIGHS INTO THE
MID 30S...RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SLOW PASSAGE OF
A CLOSED UPPER LOW - THE ONE THATS CURRENTLY SPINNING AWAY ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. UNLIKE...THE SNOW EVENT /OR LACK THERE OF/ TODAY
THAT HAS P-TYPE QUESTIONS AND AN FGEN BAND THAT HAS SLOWLY
DRIFTED FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...THERE IS ACTUALLY DECENT
CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT MON-TUE. WE ALWAYS
HAVE GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH EVENTS LIKE TODAY BECAUSE THE BAND
OF SNOW IS FOCUSED AND NOT VERY WIDE IN SCALE. SO...IF YOU DON`T
GET THE LOCATION QUITE RIGHT...LOCATIONS JUST OUTSIDE THE BAND
GET VERY LITTLE SNOW...AND THAT`S WITHOUT CONSIDERING THE WARMER
TEMPS AND REDUCED SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO SOME OF THE PRECIP FALLING
AS RAIN/SLEET AS IS THE CASE WITH TODAYS EVENT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS PASSAGE WILL
BE SLOW AND THE THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A 24-30HR WINDOW WITH LIFT OVER A VERY
LARGE SPATIAL AREA. IN FACT...THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OFF THE
GFS/ECMWF HAVE MEASURABLE SNOW FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO
ILLINOIS.THEREFORE...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE OUR FORECAST FOR
PROBABILITY OF SNOW INCREASE IN THAT MON-TUE TIME FRAME. IT
APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT A LOT OF LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW IN MN/WI...BUT IT WOULD OCCUR OVER A PROLONGED
WINDOW. UNLIKE BANDED SNOW /LIKE TODAY/...THE WIDESPREAD FORCING
MEANS IT WILL BE TOUGHER FOR THIS ONE TO "MISS" THE AREA
COMPLETELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...WITH MVFR FURTHER EAST. IFR CIGS WILL INCH EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE STEADY PRECIP A
BIT SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF RWF/MSP
LIKELY REMAINING DRY.
KMSP...CIGS HAVE SO FAR REMAINED ABOVE IFR...BUT THINK OVERNIGHT
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE LOWERING AND A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING A BIT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW
ARRIVES MID-LATE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE...
HEAVIER TOTALS SOUTHEAST.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR WIZ024>028.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ077-078-084-085-091>093.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
418 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2015
Focus continues to be precip chances thru the afternoon.
Expect strong sly winds to continue thru today. A strong swly LLJ is
expected to continue over the region today as well. Mdls continue to
depict broad areas of moisture convergence across the area today.
This is expected to result in light SHRA off and on thru much of the
day. The better chances appear to continue to be across nrn portions
of the CWA. Believe will continue with higher PoPs across this area,
tho expect little accumulation with these SHRA.
That said, the area of more stratiform and somewhat heavier RA shud
be moving into the nwrn portions of the CWA late this afternoon into
the evening hrs.
Another forecast problem for today is temps. While expect extensive
cloud cover across the area, the strong sly flow shud help push
temps warmer. Have trended slightly above the cooler guidance for
today.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2015
(Tonight through Saturday )
Not many changes to the prev forecast thru this period. Mdls are in
fairly good agreement and have slowed onset of stratiform precip
this evening. Other main change was to speed up swd progression of
precip tomorrow night into Sat.
Despite this slower onset timing, have kept the Flood Watch as-is
except to extend the watch to 18z Sat. While precip will likely
continue into Sat afternoon, believe the heaviest precip will have
ended, tho a residual flooding threat may linger.
Focus begins to shift to p-type issues late Fri night into Sat
morning, and again late Sat night into Sun morning. As the large
arctic airmass builds into the area, cold air will advect into the
region as precip comes to an end. Have not trended as cold as some
guidance and future forecasts may need to speed up the CAA and pull
the FZRA further swd sooner than the current forecast. There is also
some indication that the low level cold air may be deep enuf that
sleet will also be possible. With sfc temps being warmer, believe
that chances for ice accumulation are low, especially given the low
chance of occurrence. Will need to continue to monitor this time
period and watch trends with future updates.
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Again, not many changes from the prev forecast for this period. The
GEM continues to be a cold soln and have trended twd the warmer
GFS/ECMWF solns. Have continued low PoPs thru Mon due to differences
among mdl guidance. However, it appears all precip shud be out of
the area on Tues.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2015
Ceilings across the FA have increased throughout the evening as
some lower level dry air as worked north across the region.
However, both RAP and NAM low level RH progs are forecasting
renewed saturation during the predawn hours. Since SREF MVFR cig
probabilities are also coming up from southwest MO into west
central IL during the morning hours on Thursday, have introduced a
TEMPO for MVFR ceilings (1500-2000 ft) during the morning at both
KCOU and KUIN. Some lowering of ceilings are also expected in the
STL Metro area, but believe here the bases will remain above 3kft.
Strong southerly low level flow also persists, so will maintain
LLWS in the forecast until gusts come up early Thanksgiving
morning.
Precip is going to remain a hit and miss proposition. Spotty
showers currently extending from mid MO to central IL will likely
persist for several hours, and it`s certainly possible that
additional spotty, light, WAA-driven showers will reform over the
northwest half of the CWA throughout the predawn and morning hours
on Thursday. However, it certainly appears that the main rain
threat will be entering the area tomorrow evening, and
especially after 06z, as cold front finally pushes into western
sections of the CWA. Not only will the rainfall become heavier
and widespread, but ceilings and visbilibites will likely take a
nose dive with FROPA at both KCOU and KUIN after 06z.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR ceilings aoa 4kft are expected overnight
and into most of Thanksgiving Day. Strong low level jet will
maintain LLWS threat until mixing commences and transfers some of
the higher winds to the surface..in the 12-15z time frame.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 67 52 56 39 / 30 100 100 80
Quincy 66 39 41 32 / 70 100 60 30
Columbia 67 40 42 34 / 70 100 80 60
Jefferson City 68 42 45 35 / 70 100 90 70
Salem 65 56 58 42 / 20 100 100 90
Farmington 64 54 57 39 / 30 100 100 90
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning FOR Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St.
Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning FOR
Clinton IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
827 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 827 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
SITUATION SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING AS EXPECTED. WHILE PRECIP HAS BEEN
LIGHT...WE`VE RECEIVED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF ICY ROADS N OF THE
TRI-CITIES. IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH.
THE 12Z NAM WILL BE DELAYED.
12Z SOUNDINGS: OAX AND DDC SHOW THAT THE WARM NOSE IS SATURATED.
SO WETBULB COOLING WILL NO LONGER BE A FACTOR AND INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING THE WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SFC-BASED
COLD LAYER. UEX 88D SHOWS IT`S ABOUT 3K FT DEEP. LBF IS COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...AND WE`VE RECEIVED REPORTS OF IP/SN ON THE
NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD.
WE WILL BE USING DUAL POL TO HELP DIAGNOSE PRECIP TYPES.
PLEASE SEE 704 AM SPC MESO DISC FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THE SOLE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM BEARING DOWN ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPES.
PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ON THE FALLING TREND WITH NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW
REPORTED NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES AND MID TO UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT CAN BE COUNTED AS FOR SURE
WITH THIS FORECAST...MAINLY THAT MOST EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME TYPE
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
ON THE TEMPERATURES PROFILE AND RESULTING PRECIP TYPES.
THIS LATEST FORECAST WAS PUT TOGETHER USING A BLEND OF THE
NAM...HRRR...AND RAP MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SEEMING TO
INITILIZE THE BEST OF THE THREE. THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS AN
OUTLIER AND IS TOO COLD OVERALL. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...WHICH LOOKING AT THE NAM SOLUTION WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AS FAR NORTH AS THE TRI CITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z. THIS
COULD PUT A HUGE DAMPER ON SNOWFALL FORECASTS AND POTENTIALLY UP
ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM MAY NOT EVEN DIP INTO THE
FREEZING MARK FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON FORECAST ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS AND MAY INDICATE MORE RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND A
FASTER DISSIPATION OF THE WARM NOSE. ALTHOUGH NOT REALLY EXPECTED
...SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IN
THE TRANSITION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CONTINUED SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION AS THE CLOSED LOW IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE PLAINS.
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NEVER COMPLETELY GOES AWAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS SOME SMALL POPS LINGER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN
OUR SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON
FRIDAY...WE ONCE AGAIN GET SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT THAT COULD GIVE
US SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FROM LATE FRIDAY ALL THE WAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO AT TIME LOSE THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER...AND WE MAY WIND UP WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE IS
SOME CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE EAST
ENOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT TO END OUR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT
APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH BY MONDAY TO
POSSIBLY GIVE US JUST SNOW...IF JUST A LITTLE BIT. THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER...BUT JUST ENOUGH QPF TO PERHAPS
GIVE US SOME HEADACHES WITH THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. AS
WE DRAW CLOSER TO THIS TIME PERIOD...WE HOPE TO PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND TIMING. I ALSO DO NOT EXPECT A CONSTANT
PRECIPITATION SITUATION FOR THE LONG TERM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK
AS CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.
RIDGING BUILDS IN BY MID-WEEK AND KEEPS US DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
...WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MAYBE SOME LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL AFFECT
THE TAF SITES TODAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW BY LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ064-076-
077-086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-082>085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ087.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005-
006-017-018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
516 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THE SOLE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM BEARING DOWN ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION TYPES.
PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
ON THE FALLING TREND WITH NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW REPORTED
NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. THERE
ARE A FEW THINGS THAT CAN BE COUNTED AS FOR SURE WITH THIS
FORECAST...MAINLY THAT MOST EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
TEMPERATURES PROFILE AND RESULTING PRECIP TYPES.
THIS LATEST FORECAST WAS PUT TOGETHER USING A BLEND OF THE
NAM...HRRR...AND RAP MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SEEMING TO
INITILIZE THE BEST OF THE THREE. THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS AN OUTLIER
AND IS TOO COLD OVERALL. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE WARM AIR
ALOFT...WHICH LOOKING AT THE NAM SOLUTION WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
AS FAR NORTH AS THE TRI CITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z. THIS COULD PUT A
HUGE DAMPER ON SNOWFALL FORECASTS AND POTENTIALLY UP ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS
SUGGESTED BY THE NAM MAY NOT EVEN DIP INTO THE FREEZING MARK FOR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY
ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON FORECAST ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS AND
MAY INDICATE MORE RAIN. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE AND A FASTER DISSIPATION OF THE WARM NOSE.
ALTHOUGH NOT REALLY EXPECTED...SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IN THE TRANSITION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CONTINUED SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION AS THE CLOSED LOW IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE PLAINS.
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NEVER COMPLETELY GOES AWAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SOME SMALL POPS LINGER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN OUR
SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON
FRIDAY...WE ONCE AGAIN GET SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT THAT COULD GIVE US
SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FROM LATE FRIDAY ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO AT TIME LOSE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER...AND WE MAY WIND UP WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE IS SOME
CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE EAST ENOUGH BY
MONDAY NIGHT TO END OUR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE
WARM AIR WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH BY MONDAY TO POSSIBLY GIVE US JUST
SNOW...IF JUST A LITTLE BIT. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW
PRODUCER...BUT JUST ENOUGH QPF TO PERHAPS GIVE US SOME HEADACHES
WITH THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THIS
TIME PERIOD...WE HOPE TO PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION TYPES AND TIMING. I
ALSO DO NOT EXPECT A CONSTANT PRECIPITATION SITUATION FOR THE LONG
TERM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW.
RIDGING BUILDS IN BY MID-WEEK AND KEEPS US DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WORK
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MAYBE SOME LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL AFFECT
THE TAF SITES TODAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW BY LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ064-076-
077-086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-082>085.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ087.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005-
006-017-018.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
446 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A MESSY WEATHER SCENARIO WILL BE SHAPING UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENTLY
BATCHES OF RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIERS OF THE STATE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
DOWNPOURS...SOME GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING. IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
BATCHES OF FOG SNEAKING TOWARD KROW AND KCVS...AND THIS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE LATE MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS
ALREADY PLUNGING INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WHERE SOME IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE OCCURING WITH PRECIPITATION TURNING
MORE WINTRY AS THE DAY GOES ON. INTO THE EVENING THE FRONT WILL
PUSH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SPREADING A WINTRY MIX AND
DETERIORATING CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH IT. LOOK FOR
PREVALENT AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN PEAKS AND RIDGES. AS THE FRONT SPILLS WESTWARD THROUGH
GAPS AND CANYONS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE TONIGHT...IT
WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO ACCELERATE TO 25 TO 45 KT.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY...THEN SURGE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON GUSTY
EAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. THE
RESULT WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SNOW FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE
EAST AND IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER CENTRAL AND WEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE FASTER PROGRESS THAN THE MODELS CAN
KEEP UP WITH. WIND SHIFT HAS ARRIVED AT KTCC WITH A CORRESPONDING
NEARLY 20 DEGREE DECREASE IN THE DRY BULB TEMPERATURE. TRIED TO
ADJUST FOR THE FASTER TIMING TEMPERATURE AND WIND WISE...LEANING
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE ALA THE ECMWF AND MET AT LEAST IN THE
PLAINS...BUT STILL THE FORECAST MAY LIKELY BE LAGGING BEHIND.
NOT ONLY SOME RATHER LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT
POP WISE AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME
BANDED PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS MORESO LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THINKING THE COLDEST AIR MAY ARRIVE A BIT
LATER SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TIMING WISE WITH WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.
HOWEVER LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME OF THE BANDED PRECIPITATION MAY
START SOONER...AS IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT
BASIN UPPER LOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW WILL BE SLOWER TO
EJECT AND A TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD BE MORE
PERSISTENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
THEREFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER. THE MID WEEK FORECAST
ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT RATHER A STOUT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A WINTRY SPELL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME
TODAY...INCREASING SOME IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY INVADED
UNION COUNTY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ENCROACH FARTHER INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL PICK UP SPEED...PRESSING FARTHER SOUTH
AND WEST INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS COLDER AIR PLUNGES IN WITH THE
FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL TURN WINTRY...FIRST IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NM TODAY...SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN RANGE FROM A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO A MIXED BAG OF
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. A STRONG CANYON WIND WILL ALSO
LIKELY SPILL INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER NM INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GRADUALLY LESSENING INTO SUNDAY AS THE
LOW EXITS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN IS STILL
DEPICTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AS THE VAST LOW EXITS
FARTHER AWAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A TRAILING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT COULD KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONGOING...MOSTLY
OVER EASTERN NM. THIS PATTERN COULD COME WITH SOME BOUTS OF STRONGER
BREEZES...BUT FOR NOW NO CRITICAL WEATHER IS FORESEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER...THAT MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ526-534-537-539.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ535-536.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512>515-523-527>533.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ538-540.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511-516>518-521-522-524.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
415 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY...THEN SURGE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON GUSTY
EAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. THE
RESULT WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SNOW FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE
EAST AND IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER CENTRAL AND WEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE FASTER PROGRESS THAN THE MODELS CAN
KEEP UP WITH. WIND SHIFT HAS ARRIVED AT KTCC WITH A CORRESPONDING
NEARLY 20 DEGREE DECREASE IN THE DRY BULB TEMPERATURE. TRIED TO
ADJUST FOR THE FASTER TIMING TEMPERATURE AND WIND WISE...LEANING
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE ALA THE ECMWF AND MET AT LEAST IN THE
PLAINS...BUT STILL THE FORECAST MAY LIKELY BE LAGGING BEHIND.
NOT ONLY SOME RATHER LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT
POP WISE AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME
BANDED PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS MORESO LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THINKING THE COLDEST AIR MAY ARRIVE A BIT
LATER SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TIMING WISE WITH WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.
HOWEVER LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME OF THE BANDED PRECIPITATION MAY
START SOONER...AS IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT
BASIN UPPER LOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW WILL BE SLOWER TO
EJECT AND A TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD BE MORE
PERSISTENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
THEREFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER. THE MID WEEK FORECAST
ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT RATHER A STOUT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A WINTRY SPELL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME
TODAY...INCREASING SOME IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY INVADED
UNION COUNTY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ENCROACH FARTHER INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL PICK UP SPEED...PRESSING FARTHER SOUTH
AND WEST INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS COLDER AIR PLUNGES IN WITH THE
FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL TURN WINTRY...FIRST IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NM TODAY...SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN RANGE FROM A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO A MIXED BAG OF
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. A STRONG CANYON WIND WILL ALSO
LIKELY SPILL INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER NM INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GRADUALLY LESSENING INTO SUNDAY AS THE
LOW EXITS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN IS STILL
DEPICTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AS THE VAST LOW EXITS
FARTHER AWAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A TRAILING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT COULD KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONGOING...MOSTLY
OVER EASTERN NM. THIS PATTERN COULD COME WITH SOME BOUTS OF STRONGER
BREEZES...BUT FOR NOW NO CRITICAL WEATHER IS FORESEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER...THAT MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME.
52
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WHERE GUSTS AROUND 40
KTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THICKEN
AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MOST
TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT CIGS COULD BE
AROUND 040 BEFORE DAYBREAK. IFR AND MAYBE EVEN LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT ROW AFTER 10Z. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FZRA/SLEET
FROM CAO TO TCC THURSDAY. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY IN THE NE. ELSEWHERE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MT OBSCURATIONS. 40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 53 28 44 26 / 10 10 20 20
DULCE........................... 49 27 42 26 / 50 40 60 50
CUBA............................ 50 30 38 24 / 50 30 60 50
GALLUP.......................... 52 23 49 20 / 10 10 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 51 25 49 20 / 10 10 20 30
GRANTS.......................... 56 27 45 21 / 10 20 30 40
QUEMADO......................... 56 30 53 29 / 10 20 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 60 38 60 33 / 30 30 30 20
CHAMA........................... 44 25 37 21 / 70 50 80 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 33 36 24 / 60 60 70 70
PECOS........................... 50 26 32 20 / 50 80 80 70
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 29 33 17 / 60 70 70 60
RED RIVER....................... 45 22 26 15 / 60 90 70 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 24 27 15 / 50 80 70 60
TAOS............................ 48 27 35 21 / 40 60 60 50
MORA............................ 49 20 28 14 / 40 90 70 70
ESPANOLA........................ 54 34 41 28 / 40 50 50 50
SANTA FE........................ 51 31 35 25 / 40 60 60 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 32 37 25 / 30 50 60 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 36 38 26 / 30 30 60 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 41 41 27 / 30 20 60 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 39 42 28 / 30 20 60 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 39 42 27 / 30 20 50 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 42 42 29 / 30 20 60 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 36 39 26 / 30 20 60 50
SOCORRO......................... 65 43 48 32 / 30 20 70 50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 28 33 22 / 30 50 70 60
TIJERAS......................... 54 31 34 23 / 30 50 70 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 27 30 19 / 30 60 80 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 24 27 17 / 30 80 70 70
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 32 34 23 / 40 50 80 60
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 39 40 28 / 50 50 80 60
RUIDOSO......................... 55 34 38 25 / 60 60 80 80
CAPULIN......................... 37 16 23 14 / 60 90 70 70
RATON........................... 43 19 25 15 / 50 90 60 60
SPRINGER........................ 52 21 26 16 / 40 90 60 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 49 22 25 14 / 40 90 60 60
CLAYTON......................... 34 15 23 14 / 70 90 60 60
ROY............................. 45 21 25 16 / 50 80 60 50
CONCHAS......................... 52 24 28 18 / 50 80 60 50
SANTA ROSA...................... 60 25 27 19 / 50 80 60 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 51 25 27 19 / 70 90 70 60
CLOVIS.......................... 61 25 29 20 / 60 90 80 60
PORTALES........................ 65 26 30 22 / 60 90 80 60
FORT SUMNER..................... 63 27 30 21 / 50 80 70 50
ROSWELL......................... 68 40 40 26 / 30 60 70 60
PICACHO......................... 68 34 36 24 / 20 50 70 60
ELK............................. 65 36 38 26 / 40 50 70 70
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ526-534-537-539.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ535-536.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512>515-523-527>533.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ538-540.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511-516>518-521-522-524.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
946 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOS IN SRN INDIANA. THE
LATEST GFS AND HRRR ARE SHOWING THAT THESE MIGHT SNEAK INTO OUR
INDIANA COUNTIES. DONT THINK THEY WILL BE ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT...SO JUST ADDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE EXTREME
WESTERN COUNTIES.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS STILL
LOOK GOOD...SO NO CHANGES THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT. DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST
TO END FRIDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
PRESENCE OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND PVA. SHOWERS WILL REACH MOST
LOCATIONS INCLUDING CINCINNATI...DAYTON AND COLUMBUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS MAY NOT REACH FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH CHANCE
POPS FARTHER NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT LACKS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL CAUSE STREAMS TO RISE BUT FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO STAY NEAR 60 FRIDAY WHEN WARM AIR WILL
LINGER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP READINGS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LOW 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE FLATTENS...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ENDS UP DRY ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF KEPT A
MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN OPPOSITION TO ITS
00Z RUN AND THE 12Z GEM/GFS FORECAST SCENARIOS. A CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS SOME DEGREE OF WHITTLING AWAY THE POPS FROM THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION IS ALSO PREFERRED WITH THE EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL AGAIN INCREASE BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. BASED ON GFSE
SPREADS AND THE OVERALL SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING/PLACEMENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE WEATHER FEATURES BEYOND THE
WEEKEND IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY...THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH THE WARM STARTING POINT AT THE END OF THIS
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL STILL END UP VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL (PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW). A MORE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY
NEAR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD (MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. OHIO
WILL BE BETWEEN SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000
FEET WILL RESULT IN CIGS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS
SHOW THIS MOISTURE THIN OUT TOWARD EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CIGS TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 13 KTS WILL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURG THE DAY
AND THEN CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
557 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY DEALING WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. TO START...HAVE AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/VERY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
AREA. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO LAST ANY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS IN
ANY ONE LOCATION...SO OPTING TO NOT ISSUE HEADLINE NORTH OF EXISTING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MORNING WILL BE ON SCATTERED PRECIP AREA LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE BULK OF APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF A TYNDALL-SIOUX FALLS-SLAYTON MN
LINE. WARM LAYER MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 850-750MB ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IS THE PROBLEMATIC COMPONENT OF THE FORECAST. NAM/RAP HOLD ON TO
WARM LAYER LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS COOLS THE
LAYER MORE QUICKLY. A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WHICH SOLUTION WILL PAN
OUT...ESPECIALLY SINCE SURFACE COOLING HAS BEEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BLENDED APPROACH GIVES RATE OF
COOLING ALOFT SIMILAR TO RECENT RAP RUNS AND SEE NO STRONG REASON TO
DIVERGE FROM THAT AT THIS POINT. END RESULT IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN OTHER WORDS...STILL LOOKING FOR THE
HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10-0.15 INCH IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...
AND LIGHT ICING OUTSIDE THE EARLY MORNING FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT AS
FAR NORTH AS PONCA-LE MARS-SPIRIT LAKE. THIS SHOULD BE TOPPED BY AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH
AND BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. GOING LOCATION OF ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
THREAT STILL GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MID AND
UPPER 20S...WITH LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A LITTLE ON SATURDAY IN A TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MUDDLED
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ON SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE
SPLIT WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM DUMBELLING A VORT MAX AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THUS BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND
GEM ROTATE THE VORT MAX INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...KEEPING LOW END POPS IN OUR WEST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT. LOWS LOOKING TO BE
IN THE TEENS.
WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS SOMEWHAT CONVERGE ON BRINGING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...BRINGING A
BETTER CONSENSUS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOOKS TO FINALLY SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OUR AREA DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OF NORMAL WITH
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30 AND LOWS UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
WINTRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF KFSD. MOST IMPACTED TAF LOCATION WILL BE
KSUX...BEGINNING WITH MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
BE FOUND THROUGHOUT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST IOWA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KVMR-KSHL-KMJQ. ACCUMULATING ICE AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FARTHER NORTHWEST...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE REPLACED
WITH AREAS OF -SN...WITH MVFR- VFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE FOR KFSD/KHON THROUGH 18Z...FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVEMENT TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ071.
MN...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ003-
013-014-020>022-031-032.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-
014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
949 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.UPDATE...
A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO MORNING RAIN CHANCES HAS BEEN MADE AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY
INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE WEST OF I-35/35W DRASTICALLY AS OF MID
MORNING. LOOKING AT THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS...THE TTU
WRF SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE WITH THIS EARLIER DEVELOPMENT
THAN THE HRRR...NAM AND WRF-EAST MODELS...WHICH HOLD OFF MORE TIL
THIS AFTERNOON. I INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF I-35W
TO LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES WEST OF HWY 281. IN
ADDITION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THANKGIVING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THOUGH A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY
EXISTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE DFW METRO NORTH AND WEST...MY
CONCERN IS MORE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE WARMER TEMPS AND
STRONGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG COULD
OCCUR IF HIGHS CAN REACH THE MID 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...
MID LEVEL LASPE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEPER AND CLOSER TO 7 DEG
C/KM ACROSS CENTRAL TX VERSUS 6 DEG C/KM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO RELATIVELY DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LEFT THE AFTERNOON CONFIGURATION OF RAIN CHANCES THE
SAME. IN ADDITION...I TONED DOWN THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT A STRONG OR BRIEF SEVERE STORM
COULDN/T HAPPEN BEING THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CORRELATE WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SPEED SHEAR
BETWEEN 35-45 KTS IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE
CENTRAL TX WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 548 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015/
/12Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...IFR AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. STRONG COLD FRONT
ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING.
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
WITH STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20 KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY OVER 25 KTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WILL CARRY VCTS FROM 21Z INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE CHANGED TO TSRA IN
A FUTURE TAF ISSUANCE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN
ACTIVITY AT KACT THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY IN THE DFW
METROPLEX...BUT THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.
BETWEEN 12-14Z FRIDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE DFW METROPLEX. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT KACT AROUND
18Z. THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH AROUND 15 KTS. RAIN
WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
MOSTLY SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RAIN WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.
JLDUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015/
THE OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE...PRIMARILY TO TODAY/S FORECAST WHICH IS PROBABLY THE MOST
UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS BECAUSE WE ARE A LITTLE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS A LEAD IMPULSE AND STRONG
JET STREAK MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL OF
THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THEIR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS AND ALSO BUMPED UP THE
START OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6PM. THE QUESTION
IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT GENERALLY SAYS NO - THAT WE WILL BE
TOO COOL AT THE SURFACE...BUT THEY ARE ONLY FORECASTING UPPER 60S
FOR HIGHS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND WE CURRENTLY ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FORECASTS FROM THE MOS INDICATE WE SHOULD
REACH THE LOW 70S AND MODIFYING THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THOSE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GIVES US ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT A MARGINAL WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. SINCE THIS
THREAT IS SO RELIANT ON DAYTIME INSTABILITY THE WINDOW WILL BE
BRIEF FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM.
THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SHIFT THE
EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL AXIS ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE WEST AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THAT DIRECTION. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING
AVERAGE TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES...WITH THE 7 INCH BULLSEYE NOW
NEAR GAINESVILLE. 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-20 AND
I-30 CORRIDORS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OF COURSE GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND WE
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NAM WHICH HAS DISPLAYED EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND USUALLY IS THE BEST MODEL TO USE IN THIS WEATHER
PATTERN. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NW ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE
DFW METROPLEX AROUND SUNRISE...WACO AREA BY NOON AND CLEARING THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATE AFTERNOON. THE NAM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
LOOK VERY REASONABLE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR KNIFING SOUTH THROUGH
THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER OVER THE
EAST WHERE THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE MORE SHALLOW AND MORE PRONE TO
MODERATION FROM WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE GROUND. TEMPS WILL DROP
20 TO 30 DEGREES WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT SO THE
NUMBERS LISTED ON FRIDAY/S HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS MISLEADING SINCE
TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM APPRECIABLY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GIVEN ALL OF THE RAIN IN THE AREA AND
CONTINUING WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS RAIN IS FALLING. BECAUSE THE
AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS VERY WARM...THE RAIN WILL HELP
TRANSPORT SOME OF THIS HEAT TO THE GROUND. RAINDROPS WILL BE TOO
WARM TO FREEZE WHEN THEY REACH THE SURFACE...SO NO TRUE FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER IF THERE IS A LONG ENOUGH BREAK IN THE
RAIN...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN WATER MAY FREEZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
THIS IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS.
THE TIMING AND CHARACTER OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE
AS THE CAUSE OF LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE CHANGES TO DIFFERENT
FORCING MECHANISMS. TODAY AND TONIGHT/S RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL
BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND BE CAPABLE OF HIGH BUT VERY LOCALIZED
2+ INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
GRADUALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN THERE
COULD BE A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AS THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SOLID BAND OF RAIN
AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
WARM MOIST AIR IS LIFTED VIA FRONTOGENESIS. THIS BAND SHOULD
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NW ZONES AND INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
BY SUNRISE BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL BE SO SHALLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES...ITS LIFTING POWER WILL BECOME
MARGINALIZED. THEREFORE WE EXPECT JUST A LOT OF WEAK SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAINFALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY
AS PACIFIC HURRICANE SANDRA BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA. SANDRA
WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE EAST OF THE BAJA REGION OF MEXICO ON
SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS MEXICO AND THROUGH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE PACIFIC MOISTURE...THE REAL INFLUENCE AND CAUSE OF THE
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN OVER TEXAS WILL BE FROM STRONG DYNAMICS FOR
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS LIFT PEAKS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD PRODUCE A LARGE BAND OF
MODERATE RAIN THAT STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BAND WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE RAIN RATES
WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH WITH THIS ROUND OF RAIN ACTIVITY...THE RAIN
WILL BE PERSISTENT RESULTING IN MULTI-INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ON SATURATED SOILS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDRA CLEAR THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
PRIMARILY DUE TO A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
VERY WET BY TUESDAY BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH THAT SYSTEM
EVERY RUN. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND UKMET SHOW A DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THURSDAY. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW LIGHT RAIN ON
MONDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE REGION.
AGAIN WILL KEEP THE POPS AT 10 PERCENT...BUT KEEP A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER AROUND WITH COOL AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 50 55 38 39 / 70 90 100 90 100
WACO, TX 75 65 69 39 41 / 60 60 80 70 80
PARIS, TX 71 62 68 39 43 / 40 80 90 90 100
DENTON, TX 70 46 49 36 38 / 80 90 100 90 100
MCKINNEY, TX 72 53 56 37 40 / 60 90 100 90 100
DALLAS, TX 74 56 59 38 40 / 60 80 90 90 90
TERRELL, TX 74 64 68 39 42 / 50 70 90 80 90
CORSICANA, TX 75 65 71 41 44 / 50 60 70 80 80
TEMPLE, TX 74 66 70 39 42 / 50 50 70 70 70
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 44 47 33 35 / 80 90 100 90 100
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146.
&&
$$
82/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.UPDATE...
PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...AS COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
BY MID AFTERNOON...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE VERY HIGH END OF WHAT IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MAY SEE
A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
THIS MIX SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT GIVEN HOW WARM IT WILL BE
INTO THIS EVENING.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TODAY...WITH LOW CIGS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WILL PROBABLY SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY AS
COLDER/DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO
VFR BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY GO DOWN WITHIN HEAVIER RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH REDUCED VISIBILITY...AS THREAT FOR
FOG LOOKS LIKE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT GIVEN HOW FAST SNOW
MELTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
HAS BEEN HARD TO GET MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WITH
PERIODIC WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND POCKETS OF OMEGA MOVING OUT
AHEAD OF POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH. THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SEEN ON AREA RAP SOUNDINGS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH PERSISTENT WARMTH AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AS
REGION COMES UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET MAX THAT
STRENGTHENS FROM 140 KNOTS TO 160 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING.
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE FASTER THAN NAM IN BRINGING A SURFACE
WAVE UP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BISECTING THE STATE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTHENING
FRONTOGENESIS PROVIDES THE FORCING FOR THE STEADIER...HEAVIER
RAIN ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
STILL LOOKING AT RAINFALL TOTALS REACHING BETWEEN 1 INCH AND 1.7
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ADD TO THE WATER FROM MELTING
SNOW ALREADY MOVING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. STATEMENTS ARE
OUT FOR RIVERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THAT ARE APPROACHING BANKFULL
STAGE...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY GOING INTO FLOOD IF FORECASTED RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.
WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND SOME SLEET AS
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THIS MORNING INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO
MID 50S IN THE FAR SE...THEN STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DROPPING WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
COLDER AIR WILL SLIP INTO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...
QUICKER IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS MEANS THERE
IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH RAIN AND
SNOW. DRIER AIR WILL BE SETTLING IN WITH THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY AND
MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER. THE 06Z NAM CAME IN NEARLY DRY FOR THE 12-
18Z TIME PERIOD. ANY MIXED PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LOW-
IMPACT.
LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN
THE 20S.
A FAVORABLE NNE WIND WILL ALLOW FOR A LONG FETCH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN FAR
SOUTHEAST WI. LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 45F/7C NEAR SOUTHEAST
WI... AND 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND -3C WITH EVEN
COLDER 925MB TEMPS. DELTA-T VALUES LOOK A LITTLE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT
BUT NOT BY MUCH. AT A MINIMUM... THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA. THE NAM IS SHOWING LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL DRIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER MILD AND WET SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THAT UPPER LOW... BUT THE LATEST MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER.
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD CROSS WI TUE MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING AND ACTUALLY TEMPERATURE PROFILES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MILD AIR SURGING INTO
SOUTHERN WI ON THE LEADING EDGE SO EXPECTING IT TO BEGIN AS RAIN.
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI FROM W TO E MONDAY NIGHT SO
THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO SNOW BUT THIS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE
DRY SLOT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING... SO
THE SNOW WILL BE WET AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. SOUTHERN WI SHOULD SEE
SOME LIGHT DEFORMATION AREA SNOW TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT
THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL FALL IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
RIDGING WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE AREA
HAS DELAYED MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE LATE MORNING...THEN CIGS ANBD
VSBYS WILL TREND DOWN TO IFR AND POSSIBLY SOME LIFR AS THE HEAVIER
PCPN MOVES IN. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL LOWER AS THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTH AND STRENGTHENING WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTV
TONIGHT.
MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW BUT WATCHING
FOR WINDS SPEEDS TO INCREASE AFTER THEY FELL OFF OVERNIGHT AS
EXPECTED. IF WINDS DO NOT INCREASE AS MUCH AS FORECAST...MAY HAVE
TO END THIS CURRENT ADVISORY WITHT HE MID-MORNING UPDATE. LOOKING
FOR STEADIER RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME PERIODS OF DENSE FOG AS HIGHER
DEW POINT AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS TROUGH WILL TURN INTO A COLD FRONT BEHINDS THE DEPARTING LOW
LATER TONIGHT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR
THESE STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS THAT WILL PRODUCE GUSTS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE FOR A TIME FRIDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643-644.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COUPLED WITH RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A LONG
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WAS SENDING
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING MOST OF THIS
RAIN ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL
IA/NORTHERN IL...WITHIN BAND OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THROUGH WESTERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA. OTHERWISE... FAIRLY GOOD
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE AREA...RANGING FROM MIDDLE/UPPER
30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI.
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES VERY LITTLE TODAY WHILE A
WEAK AREA AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO SOUTHEAST WI BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. THERMAL
PROFILE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CAUSE A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WI BY LATER THIS MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH THE
DAY..TRANSITIONING TO WINTRY MIX/SNOW THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THIS PRECIPITATION EAST
OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...COULD
SEE LOSS OF CLOUD ICE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AND LIGHT
GLAZING.
BOTTOM LINE...AS OF NOW...LOOKS LIKE 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM CHARLES CITY IA TO WINONA MN AND NEILLSVILLE WI...WITH A
DUSTING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. BASED ON THIS AND
GLAZING POTENTIAL...WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
PLACE AND HAVE DAYSHIFT EVALUATE IF EXPANSION EASTWARD IS NEEDED
BASED ON PRECIPITATION TYPE TRENDS/INTENSITY WITH 12Z MODEL RUN.
DRY/COLDER WEATHER IS THEN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S.
SNOW/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT NOT GOING TO NAIL DOWN AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF FOCUSED FORCING. OTHERWISE..SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
LIFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MINOR
IMPROVEMENT LATER TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL TO THE EAST.
PCPN TYPES ARE CHALLENGING AS A SIMPLE DEGREE CHANGE ALOFT AND/OR AT
THE SFC WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN WHAT FALLS...AND HOW VSBYS
REACT. AS IT LOOKS NOW...IT ALL STARTS AS RAIN...A FEW HOUR MIX OF
SLEET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD
TOWARD THE END OF THE PCPN EVENT WOULD RESULT IN FZDZ/RA FOR A
COUPLE HOURS...IF THAT OCCURS. EXPECT UPDATES AS OBS AND RADAR
TRENDS LEND SOME CLARITY TO HOW SOON/DELAYED SOME OF THE PCPN TYPES
WILL BE. EXPECTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT KRST OF 1 TO 2...MOSTLY ON
GRASSY SURFACES. AN INCH MORE WOULDN/T SURPRISE. KLSE SHOULD STAY
UNDER AN INCH...DEALING WITH LIQUID LONGER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-029-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR WIZ032.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-095.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR MNZ079-086-087-094.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ009-018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ008.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
511 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
HAS BEEN HARD TO GET MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WITH
PERIODIC WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND POCKETS OF OMEGA MOVING OUT
AHEAD OF POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH. THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SEEN ON AREA RAP SOUNDINGS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH PERSISTENT WARMTH AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AS
REGION COMES UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET MAX THAT
STRENGTHENS FROM 140 KNOTS TO 160 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING.
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE FASTER THAN NAM IN BRINGING A SURFACE
WAVE UP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BISECTING THE STATE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTHENING
FRONTOGENESIS PROVIDES THE FORCING FOR THE STEADIER...HEAVIER
RAIN ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
STILL LOOKING AT RAINFALL TOTALS REACHING BETWEEN 1 INCH AND 1.7
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ADD TO THE WATER FROM MELTING
SNOW ALREADY MOVING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. STATEMENTS ARE
OUT FOR RIVERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THAT ARE APPROACHING BANKFULL
STAGE...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY GOING INTO FLOOD IF FORECASTED RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.
WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND SOME SLEET AS
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THIS MORNING INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO
MID 50S IN THE FAR SE...THEN STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DROPPING WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
COLDER AIR WILL SLIP INTO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...
QUICKER IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS MEANS THERE
IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH RAIN AND
SNOW. DRIER AIR WILL BE SETTLING IN WITH THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY AND
MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER. THE 06Z NAM CAME IN NEARLY DRY FOR THE 12-
18Z TIME PERIOD. ANY MIXED PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LOW-
IMPACT.
LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN
THE 20S.
A FAVORABLE NNE WIND WILL ALLOW FOR A LONG FETCH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN FAR
SOUTHEAST WI. LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 45F/7C NEAR SOUTHEAST
WI... AND 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND -3C WITH EVEN
COLDER 925MB TEMPS. DELTA-T VALUES LOOK A LITTLE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT
BUT NOT BY MUCH. AT A MINIMUM... THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA. THE NAM IS SHOWING LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL DRIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER MILD AND WET SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THAT UPPER LOW... BUT THE LATEST MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER.
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD CROSS WI TUE MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING AND ACTUALLY TEMPERATURE PROFILES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MILD AIR SURGING INTO
SOUTHERN WI ON THE LEADING EDGE SO EXPECTING IT TO BEGIN AS RAIN.
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI FROM W TO E MONDAY NIGHT SO
THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO SNOW BUT THIS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE
DRY SLOT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING... SO
THE SNOW WILL BE WET AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. SOUTHERN WI SHOULD SEE
SOME LIGHT DEFORMATION AREA SNOW TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT
THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL FALL IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
RIDGING WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE AREA
HAS DELAYED MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE LATE MORNING...THEN CIGS ANBD
VSBYS WILL TREND DOWN TO IFR AND POSSIBLY SOME LIFR AS THE HEAVIER
PCPN MOVES IN. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL LOWER AS THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTH AND STRENGTHENING WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTV
TONIGHT.
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW BUT WATCHING
FOR WINDS SPEEDS TO INCREASE AFTER THEY FELL OFF OVERNIGHT AS
EXPECTED. IF WINDS DO NOT INCREASE AS MUCH AS FORECAST...MAY HAVE
TO END THIS CURRENT ADVISORY WITHT HE MID-MORNING UPDATE. LOOKING
FOR STEADIER RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME PERIODS OF DENSE FOG AS HIGHER
DEW POINT AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS TROUGH WILL TURN INTO A COLD FRONT BEHINDS THE DEPARTING LOW
LATER TONIGHT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR
THESE STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS THAT WILL PRODUCE GUSTS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE FOR A TIME FRIDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643-644.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
251 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015
...PERIODS OF SNOW TONIGHT...
...MORE LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY...
BUSY DAY OF WX FOR THIS HOLIDAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS HAVE FINALLY
CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF THE
STATE...WHICH COULD HOLD ON TO SOME FZRA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGHLIGHT IN GENERAL HAVE SO FAR WORKED OUT PRETTY WELL. MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SNOW POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
FROM NOW THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...INCLUDING THE
HI RES WRF...HRRR...AND 18Z NAM...ALL SHOW BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND MOVING FROM SW TO NE DURING THIS TIME.
THE QPF FORECAST IS DIFFICULT SINCE IT IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY
AT THIS POINT EXACTLY WHERE THESE HEAVY MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP...IF
THEY DEVELOP AS PROGGED. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCAL SPOT COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TONIGHT IF ONE OF THESE
BANDS IS PERSISTENT OVER THE SAME AREA. THE HRRR HAS THE SNOW
BULLSEYE OVER THE SRN SANGRES AND SPANISH PEAKS...WHILE THE NAM SETS
UP THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE NRN SANGRES AND FREMONT COUNTY.
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND MODEL CONSENSUS...APPEARS THE BEST BET
FOR SEEING HIGHER SNOW TOTALS WILL BE OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
SRN I-25 CORRIDOR...AS THESE MESOSCALE BANDS TRANSLATE IN FROM THE
SW. HAVE UPGRADED THIS AREA TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT.
EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE
HEAVIEST BAND. RATES OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE BANDS. ELSEWHERE...THE ONGOING FORECAST OF 2-4 INCHES FOR THE
PLAINS AND 4-8 FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS ON TRACK.
FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME ISOLD TO
SCT SHSN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON ANOTHER
WAVE OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE SW...AND THIS WILL
BRING BACK THE THREAT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS TO THE AREA.
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT...MAY HAVE TO EXTEND SOME OF
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND/OR ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW AVG AS H7 TEMPS OF MINUS 15 OR LOWER CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD DOWN THE SRN FRONT RANGE. GFS-BASED GUIDANCE SEEMS A TAD TOO
COLD...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER NAM WHICH STILL BRINGS
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE A VERY
RAW DAY ACROSS THE CWA. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015
FRI NIGHT THE UPR LOW WL BE CENTERED OVR THE GREAT BASIN WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVR THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SFC OVR THE ERN
PLAINS...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS WL CONTINUE ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL. AN UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING
AROUND THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPR LOW INTO WRN CO...SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE SNOW CHANCES ACRS THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MTNS...AND COULD INCREASE SNOWFALL OVR THE NRN SANGRES AND
PIKES PEAK AREA.
ON SAT...THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE UPR
LOW...AND BY AFTERNOON THE UPR DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN PCPN CHANCES...WITH
GENERALLY JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT CHANCES IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THERE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACRS THE ERN
SAN JUAN MTNS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS WL
STILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20 TO LOWER
30S...MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER NR THE MTNS. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH MOSTLY 30S IN
THE UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
SAT NIGHT THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SWRN WY. THIS WL BRING ANOTHER UPR DISTURBANCE THRU WRN CO AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
THEN EXPECTED COME AROUND THE UPR LOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...ONCE
AGAIN ENHANCING PCPN CHANCES OVR THE MTNS...AND THEN OVR ERN AREAS
SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. THE UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD STILL
SEE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE UPR LOW CENTER THEN MOVING INTO
EXTREME NERN CO BY MIDDAY MON...BRINGING WESTERLY WINDS TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD STILL BE SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE UPR LOW IS
THE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO IA BY TUE MORNING...LEAVING
THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA ON TUE NIGHT AND WED...BUT AT THIS
TIME THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HIGH TEMPS BY WED SHOULD BE AROUND AVERAGE. THU IT LOOKS LIKE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015
AT KALS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO GO DOWNHILL AFTER 00Z AS CIGS
START TO DROP AND SCT SHSN MOVE INTO THE VALLEY. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SN ACCUMS BY MORNING.
AT KPUB AND KCOS...IFR TO OCCASIONALLY LIFR AT KCOS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO FRI MORNING. WILL SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT FRI AFTERNOON... BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHSN IS
EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRI EVE. KPUB ALSO WILL SEE MVFR
TO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODT SN POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. TAF SITES SHOULD BE MVFR TO VFR BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT COULD SEE OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS BY LATE
IN THE DAY AS MORE SHSN MOVE IN FROM THE SW. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ076-077-
081>086-088-089-093>099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ072>075-
078>080-087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ067-068.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
FIRST...HERE WERE THE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE IMPENDING
SYSTEM FOR TODAY. THE POP GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENED QUITE A
BIT...PULLING THE MENTIONABLE PRECIP LINE DOWN TO ABOUT A REDWOOD
FALLS...ST. MICHAEL TO CAMBRIDGE LINE. TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WAS
DELAYED A LITTLE SOUTHEAST OF A FAIRMONT...RED WING TO LADYSMITH
LINE. QPF WAS REDUCED SOME...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST.
WITH LOWER QPF AND A DELAYED TRANSITION TO SNOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WERE CUT BACK AS WELL...WITH UP TO ABOUT 2 INCHES NOW FORECAST IN
THE ADVISORY WITH AMOUNTS IN THE TWIN CITIES RANGING FROM A TRACE IN
THE NW METRO WITH AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH IN THE SE METRO. FINALLY...WE
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIP SOME THIS MORNING AND STARTED PUSHING
THE END OF PRECIP TO THE EAST A BIT FASTER TONIGHT.
THE FRONT THAT WORKED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS STRETCHED OUT
FROM THE NE TX PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO THE I-90/I-94 SPLIT IN WI AND
ON UP TOWARD THE MARQUETTE MICHIGAN AREA AT 3 AM. SPC MESOANLYIS
SHOWS THAT FGEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS REALLY CENTERED DOWN IN THE 925-
850MB AREA...WITH NOT MUCH FGEN NOTED AT H7. WITH THE FORCING DOWN
LOW...THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CLOSER TO THE FRONT...HENCE
THE NUDGING OF QPF TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN FACT...EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN
OF THE HRRR KEEPS NUDGING THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...WITH OUR BEST SHOT AT PRECIP COMING FROM THE ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY STARTING TO BLOSSOM ON RADAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COMING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO RIGHT NOW GOING MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE MPX AREA...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN HOW FAR THIS PRECIP CURRENTLY IS /NW TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS OPPOSED TO WRN KS...WHICH IS WHERE MODELS WITH A MORE
NW SOLUTION WERE SHOWING IT SHOULD BE/.
FOR P-TYPE...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A MESS. FIRST OF ALL...THE COLD
AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH EAU CLAIRE STILL ABOVE 40 AT 4
AM. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CAMS ALONG WITH THE RAP
SHOW A MELTING WARM NOSE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS SC/SE MN UNTIL
CLOSE TO 21Z...WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING MORE
SLEET/FZRA INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY SWITCHING TO SNOW
THERE. THE WARMER TEMPS THIS MORNING DO NOT HELP THINGS
EITHER...ESPECIALLY IN WI...WHERE EAU CLAIRE MAY NOT SEE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER 21Z...WHICH IS A BIG REASON WHY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK TO BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OUT IN
THE FAR ERN MPX CWA. FOR TONIGHT...STILL HAVE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO
FZDZ AS THE PRECIP IS MOVING OUT...THOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY
OVERDONE...AS THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ICE CRYSTALS WILL LIKELY
SIGNAL THE END OF PRECIP AS WELL.
WITH THE ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...SAW NO NEED TO CHANGE IT WITH THOSE
AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TODAY...THOUGH
WITH CURRENT AMOUNTS EXPECTED...WOULD HAVE PROBABLY NOT ISSUED AN
ADVY IF ONE WERE NOT ALREADY OUT THERE.
TONIGHT...WE SEE STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN WITH SKIES QUICKLY
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE CLEAR SKIES WITH CONTINUE COLD
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL START TO BLACK FRIDAY...WITH
LOCATIONS OUT IN WEST CENTRAL MN LIKELY STARTING OUT NEAR 10
DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE MONTH SO
FAR/ALTHOUGH THATS NOT SAYING MUCH BECAUSE THE FORECAST AREA IS
AROUND +9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER./ ONE THING OF NOTE
ONFRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS THE EXTREMELY DRY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH HAVE PWATS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGY MINIMUM BETWEEN
0.07-0.10". THE AIRMASS MODERATES THIS WEEKEND AND SUNSHINE
COMBINED WITH MAINLY BROWN GROUND SHOULD GET OUR HIGHS INTO THE
MID 30S...RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SLOW PASSAGE OF
A CLOSED UPPER LOW - THE ONE THATS CURRENTLY SPINNING AWAY ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. UNLIKE...THE SNOW EVENT /OR LACK THERE OF/ TODAY
THAT HAS P-TYPE QUESTIONS AND AN FGEN BAND THAT HAS SLOWLY
DRIFTED FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...THERE IS ACTUALLY DECENT
CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT MON-TUE. WE ALWAYS
HAVE GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH EVENTS LIKE TODAY BECAUSE THE BAND
OF SNOW IS FOCUSED AND NOT VERY WIDE IN SCALE. SO...IF YOU DON`T
GET THE LOCATION QUITE RIGHT...LOCATIONS JUST OUTSIDE THE BAND
GET VERY LITTLE SNOW...AND THAT`S WITHOUT CONSIDERING THE WARMER
TEMPS AND REDUCED SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO SOME OF THE PRECIP FALLING
AS RAIN/SLEET AS IS THE CASE WITH TODAYS EVENT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS PASSAGE WILL
BE SLOW AND THE THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A 24-30HR WINDOW WITH LIFT OVER A VERY
LARGE SPATIAL AREA. IN FACT...THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OFF THE
GFS/ECMWF HAVE MEASURABLE SNOW FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO
ILLINOIS.THEREFORE...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE OUR FORECAST FOR
PROBABILITY OF SNOW INCREASE IN THAT MON-TUE TIME FRAME. IT
APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT A LOT OF LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW IN MN/WI...BUT IT WOULD OCCUR OVER A PROLONGED
WINDOW. UNLIKE BANDED SNOW /LIKE TODAY/...THE WIDESPREAD FORCING
MEANS IT WILL BE TOUGHER FOR THIS ONE TO "MISS" THE AREA
COMPLETELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015
MIXED PRECIP HAS PRETTY MUCH CHANGED TO SNOW EXCEPT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST AREA FROM KEAU TO KAEL...BUT THIS AREA SHOULD ALSO
TRANSITION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
WITH NNW WINDS. SWATH OF PRECIP FROM NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISC. WEST CENTRAL WISC WILL BE THE LAST TO
END PRECIP...BUT SWATH HAS BEEN SHIFTING SE A BIT...SO IT LOOKS
LIKE THE HEAVIEST WILL END AT KEAU AROUND 00Z WITH MAYBE SOME
LIGHTER PRECIP LINGERING INTO THE EVENING.
OTHER ISSUE IS MVFR CEILINGS IN NORTHERN MN INTO MANITOBA AND
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. THE MORE EXTENSIVE MVFR CEILINGS ARE OVER MOST
OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN MN INTO ONTARIO. WITH THE NNW WIND...
THESE ARE LIKELY TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MN
AND WISC...SO THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS. LESS
CERTAIN IS WEST CENTRAL INTO SW MN...SINCE THERE IS MORE OF A
PATCHWORK OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME...AND SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THIS PATCHWORK CONTINUING INTO WRN MN. THEREFORE HAVE
SCT/BKN AT KAXN AND KRWF.
KMSP...SNOW WITH IFR VISIBILITIES WILL SOON TAPER OFF AROUND
19Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR VISIBILITY FOR A COUPLE HOURS AND THEN
ENDING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT... WITH ONE POSSIBLE BREAK TO VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE MVFR
MAY SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MN NORTH OF THE SNOW. BUT
MORE MVFR CEILINGS ARE ON THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHEASTERN
MN AND ONTARIO. SO ANY SCATTERING OUT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL THEN
BE HOW LONG THE MVFR CEILINGS LAST. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST TIL
AT LEAST 06Z...BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE...WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT TAKES 09Z-12Z BEFORE WE SEE ALL VFR.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VRB.
MON...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ024>028.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ077-
078-084-085-091>093.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
326 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015
TRANSITIONED A LARGE PORTION OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING THAT WAS
IN EFFECT TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WHILE WE HAVE HAD
ACCUMULATION ON ABOVE GROUND SURFACES TODAY...ROAD CONDITIONS IN
MOST OF THE WARNING AREA REMAINED RELATIVELY GOOD WITH PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES REMAINING JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE HAD MULTIPLE
REPORTS OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICING ON EVERYTHING
ELSE ABOVE GROUND THOUGH. OPPD REPORTING ONLY 107 CUSTOMERS
WITHOUT POWER AT 3 PM. STILL SEEING A FREEZING RAIN/ICE PELLET MIX
ALONG I80 CORRIDOR...AND OVERALL RADAR INTENSITY IS ALSO WINDING
DOWN. KEPT THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE TEMPS ARE JUST NOW APPROACHING
FREEZING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS PICKING UP THE ABOVE GROUND
GLAZING THAT ELSEWHERE HAS EXPERIENCED THROUGH THE DAY. THUS...THE
AREA IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE WOODS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR WINTRY
WEATHER... BUT WANTED TO ADJUST THE HEADLINES WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE TO BETTER REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS.
PRECIP WILL PROBABLY COME TO AN END ALONG/NORTH OF I80 THROUGH
EARLY EVENING... BUT THE SECOND SURGE COMING OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE TO AREAS
SOUTH OF I80 BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THAT MAY MOVE OUT BY MIDNIGHT...
AND FINALLY A THIRD SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING OUT SOUTHWEST KANSAS
COULD BRING ADDITIONAL FLURRIES BACK TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP LINGERING IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH OF
I80...THEN FINALLY PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE A COLD BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
AND WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.
DRY SATURDAY US WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WE MAY START
TO SEE INFLUENCES OF THAT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
SPLITTING THE FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST...WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACROSS WESTERN HALF...AND MIXED PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN
HALF...BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015
A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE
ONTO THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC
FEATURES...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIKELY...AGAIN WITH A
WINTRY MIX...BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS MY WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...AND MIXED ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 77...THEN ENDING AS ALL
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS IT IS JUST OUTSIDE OUR WINDOW OF QPF AND SNOWFALL.
PRECIP FINALLY OUT OF HERE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
KOFK REMAINS ALL SNOW AND SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON. KOMA HAS ALREADY REPORTED FREEZING RAIN
AND SEE A STRIPE OF SLEET THAT SHOULD MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE THEY CHANGE TO SNOW. AS FOR KLNK...AS OF TAF
ISSUANCE...THEY REMAIN ALL LIQUID BUT SHOULD SEE A -FZRA MIX SOON
WITH SLEET...THEN A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE RAP WHICH DEVELOPS MORE PCPN AFTER 06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045-
051>053-065>068-078-088>090.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ091>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-
032>034-042>044-050.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-
056-069-079-080.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ090-091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1151 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THERE IS A BAND OF MDT-HVY SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING OVER PORTIONS OF
POLK/YORK/HAMILTON/MERRICK COUNTIES. THIS BAND WILL DROP 1 TO
POSSIBLY 2" BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 1 PM. JUST RCVD A REPORT OF 1"
IN OSCEOLA FROM AN OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE.
THE FCST IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY COMPLICATED AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL
BE NECESSARY. 88D MOSAIC SHOWS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP OVER WRN KS
MOVING NE. SO EXPECT PRECIP TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z WRF-
ARW/NMMB AND THE DEPICT THIS WELL. THIS WILL LOWER ICE AMTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP IS HEADING OUT OF NM INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. THE HI-RES MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE BRING THIS PRECIP
INTO ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA THIS EVE/TONIGHT.
MORE LATER...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
SITUATION SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING AS EXPECTED. WHILE PRECIP HAS BEEN
LIGHT...WE`VE RECEIVED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF ICY ROADS N OF THE
TRI-CITIES. IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH.
THE 12Z NAM WILL BE DELAYED.
12Z SOUNDINGS: OAX AND DDC SHOW THAT THE WARM NOSE IS SATURATED.
SO WETBULB COOLING WILL NO LONGER BE A FACTOR AND INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING THE WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SFC-BASED
COLD LAYER. UEX 88D SHOWS IT`S ABOUT 3K FT DEEP. LBF IS COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...AND WE`VE RECEIVED REPORTS OF IP/SN ON THE
NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD.
WE WILL BE USING DUAL POL TO HELP DIAGNOSE PRECIP TYPES.
PLEASE SEE 704 AM SPC MESO DISC FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THE SOLE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM BEARING DOWN ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPES.
PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ON THE FALLING TREND WITH NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW
REPORTED NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES AND MID TO UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT CAN BE COUNTED AS FOR SURE
WITH THIS FORECAST...MAINLY THAT MOST EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME TYPE
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
ON THE TEMPERATURES PROFILE AND RESULTING PRECIP TYPES.
THIS LATEST FORECAST WAS PUT TOGETHER USING A BLEND OF THE
NAM...HRRR...AND RAP MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SEEMING TO
INITILIZE THE BEST OF THE THREE. THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS AN
OUTLIER AND IS TOO COLD OVERALL. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...WHICH LOOKING AT THE NAM SOLUTION WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AS FAR NORTH AS THE TRI CITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z. THIS
COULD PUT A HUGE DAMPER ON SNOWFALL FORECASTS AND POTENTIALLY UP
ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM MAY NOT EVEN DIP INTO THE
FREEZING MARK FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON FORECAST ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS AND MAY INDICATE MORE RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND A
FASTER DISSIPATION OF THE WARM NOSE. ALTHOUGH NOT REALLY EXPECTED
...SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IN
THE TRANSITION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CONTINUED SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION AS THE CLOSED LOW IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE PLAINS.
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NEVER COMPLETELY GOES AWAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS SOME SMALL POPS LINGER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN
OUR SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON
FRIDAY...WE ONCE AGAIN GET SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT THAT COULD GIVE
US SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FROM LATE FRIDAY ALL THE WAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO AT TIME LOSE THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER...AND WE MAY WIND UP WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE IS
SOME CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE EAST
ENOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT TO END OUR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT
APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH BY MONDAY TO
POSSIBLY GIVE US JUST SNOW...IF JUST A LITTLE BIT. THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER...BUT JUST ENOUGH QPF TO PERHAPS
GIVE US SOME HEADACHES WITH THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. AS
WE DRAW CLOSER TO THIS TIME PERIOD...WE HOPE TO PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND TIMING. I ALSO DO NOT EXPECT A CONSTANT
PRECIPITATION SITUATION FOR THE LONG TERM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK
AS CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.
RIDGING BUILDS IN BY MID-WEEK AND KEEPS US DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
...WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MAYBE SOME LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRI AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
THIS AFTERNOON: IFR SNOW WILL CONT THRU 20Z-21Z THEN A BREAK IS
EXPECTED. TIMING MAY BE OFF A LITTLE ON THIS. THEN IMPROVING
CIGS/VSBYS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON VSBYS. MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER. N WINDS 15-25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
TONIGHT: POSSIBLY VFR TO START...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR OR
IFR -SN ROUGHLY 02Z-05Z. THEN VFR CIGS AROUND 7-10K FT. N WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ064-076-
077-086-087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-082>085.
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005-
006-017-018.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERALL. CAN NOW SEE SLEET SHOWING UP
IN THE ZDR STRIPE WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFIED BY GROUND TRUTH.
NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE IS SNOW AND TO THE SOUTHEAST IS RAIN WITH
FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THE AREA WIND SENSORS ARE REPORTING CALM
CONDITIONS WHICH IS A GOOD INDICATION OF THE ANEMOMETER FREEZING
UP. ROAD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL WITH THE MAIN ICING
BEING REPORTED ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE RAP AND IT`S DEVELOPMENT OF MORE PCPN
AFTER 06Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING PCPN CHANGE OVER AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SNOW
AMOUNTS. CURRENT SFC OBS INDICATE LEADING EDGE OF COLD FRONT HAS
PRETTY MUCH PUSHED THRU THE CWA EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IA TO S-CNTRL
KS WITH STOUT INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BNDRY.
AT THIS POINT JUST MATTER OF TIME NOW BEFORE PCPN ACTIVITY GETS
UNDERWAY AS CONTINUOUS MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE SLOW MOVING SFC
BNDRY LEADS TO A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RA/FZRA/SLEET MIX TO SNOW
AS THE CAA LAYER DEEPENS. MAIN AREA OF SN ACCUM THOUGH SHOULD BE
CONFINED OVER THE NRN CWA WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN CWA WILL FAVOR A FREEZING RAIN
EPISODE AS THE COLD AIR CUTS UNDERNEATH THE WARMER AIR MASS LAYER
ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ROADWAY ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A
QUARTER INCH...ASSUMING OF COURSE PAVEMENT TEMPS WILL BE SUB-ZERO.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE REMAINDER OF THE
COUNTIES CURRENTLY UNDER A WATCH TO A WARNING. THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WHEN BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
SHIFTS EWD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS POINT AS BOTH THE ECM/GFS SUGGEST
PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PDS IN
RESPONSE TO MOIST UPGLIDE COUPLED WITH DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER WRN CONUS. ECM AND GFS ARE IN
AGREEMENT DOMINATE PCPN TYPE WILL BE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
KOFK REMAINS ALL SNOW AND SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON. KOMA HAS ALREADY REPORTED FREEZING RAIN
AND SEE A STRIPE OF SLEET THAT SHOULD MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE THEY CHANGE TO SNOW. AS FOR KLNK...AS OF TAF
ISSUANCE...THEY REMAIN ALL LIQUID BUT SHOULD SEE A -FZRA MIX SOON
WITH SLEET...THEN A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE RAP WHICH DEVELOPS MORE PCPN AFTER 06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045-
051>053-065-066-078.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ067-068-
088>090-092.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR NEZ091-093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-
018-030>034-042>044-050.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-
069.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ079-080.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ090-091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KERN
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1058 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN FOR UNION COUNTY AND TO
DECREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
NM TODAY. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR A RATON AIRPORT
TO SPRINGER TO TUCUMCARI LINE. FREEZING RAIN BEING REPORTED AT
CLAYTON AS SHALLOW COLD AIR UNDERCUTS THE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1035 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
COMPLEX/INCREASINGLY HIGH-IMPACT WX SCENARIO THROUGH THE FCST PD
AND BEYOND...PARTICULARLY TERMINAL SITES ACROSS ERN NM. LEADING
EDGE OF A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL CONT TO PRESS
SOUTHWARD TODAY. THIS COLD BUT SHALLOW AIR MASS WILL BE TOPPED BY
A SUB-TROPICAL AIR STREAM CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-RECORD MOISTURE CONTENT FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
AS A RESULT...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TO INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY EXPAND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD
AIR WILL MAKE ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS MUCH SLOWER TODAY...BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
TOWARD SUNSET....EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS
MID/LATE EVENING AND THE KROW AREA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. MT
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND OF LONG DURATION...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 00Z. EASTERLY SFC WINDS TO 45 KT TO IMPACT KABQ AND KSAF
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS THE COLD AIR SPILLS WESTWARD. KGUP AND KFMN
LEAST IMPACTED TERMINALS WHERE VFR CIGS FORECAST. KJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY...THEN SURGE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON GUSTY
EAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. THE
RESULT WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SNOW FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE
EAST AND IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER CENTRAL AND WEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE FASTER PROGRESS THAN THE MODELS CAN
KEEP UP WITH. WIND SHIFT HAS ARRIVED AT KTCC WITH A CORRESPONDING
NEARLY 20 DEGREE DECREASE IN THE DRY BULB TEMPERATURE. TRIED TO
ADJUST FOR THE FASTER TIMING TEMPERATURE AND WIND WISE...LEANING
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE ALA THE ECMWF AND MET AT LEAST IN THE
PLAINS...BUT STILL THE FORECAST MAY LIKELY BE LAGGING BEHIND.
NOT ONLY SOME RATHER LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT
POP WISE AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME
BANDED PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS MORESO LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THINKING THE COLDEST AIR MAY ARRIVE A BIT
LATER SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TIMING WISE WITH WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.
HOWEVER LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME OF THE BANDED PRECIPITATION MAY
START SOONER...AS IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT
BASIN UPPER LOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW WILL BE SLOWER TO
EJECT AND A TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD BE MORE
PERSISTENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
THEREFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER. THE MID WEEK FORECAST
ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT RATHER A STOUT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A WINTRY SPELL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME
TODAY...INCREASING SOME IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY INVADED
UNION COUNTY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ENCROACH FARTHER INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL PICK UP SPEED...PRESSING FARTHER SOUTH
AND WEST INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS COLDER AIR PLUNGES IN WITH THE
FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL TURN WINTRY...FIRST IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NM TODAY...SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN RANGE FROM A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO A MIXED BAG OF
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. A STRONG CANYON WIND WILL ALSO
LIKELY SPILL INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER NM INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GRADUALLY LESSENING INTO SUNDAY AS THE
LOW EXITS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN IS STILL
DEPICTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AS THE VAST LOW EXITS
FARTHER AWAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A TRAILING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT COULD KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONGOING...MOSTLY
OVER EASTERN NM. THIS PATTERN COULD COME WITH SOME BOUTS OF STRONGER
BREEZES...BUT FOR NOW NO CRITICAL WEATHER IS FORESEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER...THAT MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ526-534-537-539.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ535-536.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512>515-523-527>533.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ538-540.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511-516>518-521-522-524.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1035 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
COMPLEX/INCREASINGLY HIGH-IMPACT WX SCENARIO THROUGH THE FCST PD
AND BEYOND...PARTICULARLY TERMINAL SITES ACROSS ERN NM. LEADING
EDGE OF A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL CONT TO PRESS
SOUTHWARD TODAY. THIS COLD BUT SHALLOW AIR MASS WILL BE TOPPED BY
A SUB-TROPICAL AIR STREAM CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-RECORD MOISTURE CONTENT FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
AS A RESULT...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TO INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY EXPAND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD
AIR WILL MAKE ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS MUCH SLOWER TODAY...BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
TOWARD SUNSET....EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS
MID/LATE EVENING AND THE KROW AREA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. MT
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND OF LONG DURATION...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 00Z. EASTERLY SFC WINDS TO 45 KT TO IMPACT KABQ AND KSAF
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS THE COLD AIR SPILLS WESTWARD. KGUP AND KFMN
LEAST IMPACTED TERMINALS WHERE VFR CIGS FORECAST. KJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY...THEN SURGE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON GUSTY
EAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. THE
RESULT WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SNOW FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE
EAST AND IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER CENTRAL AND WEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE FASTER PROGRESS THAN THE MODELS CAN
KEEP UP WITH. WIND SHIFT HAS ARRIVED AT KTCC WITH A CORRESPONDING
NEARLY 20 DEGREE DECREASE IN THE DRY BULB TEMPERATURE. TRIED TO
ADJUST FOR THE FASTER TIMING TEMPERATURE AND WIND WISE...LEANING
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE ALA THE ECMWF AND MET AT LEAST IN THE
PLAINS...BUT STILL THE FORECAST MAY LIKELY BE LAGGING BEHIND.
NOT ONLY SOME RATHER LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT
POP WISE AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME
BANDED PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS MORESO LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THINKING THE COLDEST AIR MAY ARRIVE A BIT
LATER SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TIMING WISE WITH WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.
HOWEVER LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME OF THE BANDED PRECIPITATION MAY
START SOONER...AS IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT
BASIN UPPER LOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW WILL BE SLOWER TO
EJECT AND A TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD BE MORE
PERSISTENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
THEREFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER. THE MID WEEK FORECAST
ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT RATHER A STOUT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A WINTRY SPELL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME
TODAY...INCREASING SOME IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY INVADED
UNION COUNTY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ENCROACH FARTHER INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL PICK UP SPEED...PRESSING FARTHER SOUTH
AND WEST INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS COLDER AIR PLUNGES IN WITH THE
FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL TURN WINTRY...FIRST IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NM TODAY...SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN RANGE FROM A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO A MIXED BAG OF
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. A STRONG CANYON WIND WILL ALSO
LIKELY SPILL INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER NM INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GRADUALLY LESSENING INTO SUNDAY AS THE
LOW EXITS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN IS STILL
DEPICTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AS THE VAST LOW EXITS
FARTHER AWAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION A TRAILING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT COULD KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONGOING...MOSTLY
OVER EASTERN NM. THIS PATTERN COULD COME WITH SOME BOUTS OF STRONGER
BREEZES...BUT FOR NOW NO CRITICAL WEATHER IS FORESEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER...THAT MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ526-534-537-539.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ535-536.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512>515-523-527>533.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ538-540.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511-516>518-521-522-524.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
418 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MOST OF FRIDAY WITH MILD WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR FOR LATE NOVEMBER SATURDAY.
THIS DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AND MILD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 500 MB.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
ADVECTING OVERHEAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND
500 MB AND UP. THERE WERE ALSO SCATTERED AREAS OF LOWER
STRATOCUMULUS THAT WERE MIXING OUT WITH THE GROWING BOUNDARY
LAYER MAINLY IN NORTHEAST PA AND EAST CENTRAL NY FROM THE WEAK
INSOLATION THAT WE SEE IN LATE NOVEMBER. SO FORECAST BEGINS PARTLY
CLOUDY ALL AREAS. THE NAM IS AGRESSIVE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CREEPING UP NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NY
BETWEEN 21Z AND 09Z AS SEEN IN THE 925 MB RH FIELDS WHICH BECOME
SATURATED. THE HRRR HAS MUCH LESS MOISTURE AT THIS LEVEL. THE
LATEST RAP ALSO IS MUCH LESS ON THE RH AT THE VERY LOW-LEVELS.
HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF RUNS ALSO DON`T HAVE AS MUCH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. SO WE WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS HERE AND KEEP MAINLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WON`T BE ARRIVING BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY SO NO PRECIP IN
FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FOR FRIDAY, ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL REACH LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE BY 18Z FRIDAY AND TO
ABOUT UTICA TO PENN YAN/HORNELL AREA IN CENTRAL NY BY 00Z. THE 12Z
EUROPEAN MODEL, 15Z SREF AND 12Z NAM ARE SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS
WHICH HAS THE FRONT A BIT FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH AT 00Z SATURDAY.
THE 12Z CMC REMAINS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS FRONT HOLDING IT BACK TO
ABOUT SARANAC LAKE TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NY BY 00Z SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT AND AS A RESULT HAVE
BACKED OFF SHOWERS THAT ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT SOME. THE
MAIN DYNAMICAL FEATURE THAT WAS SUPPORTING LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY BEHIND THIS FRONT WAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WHICH EXTENDS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC NORTHEAST TO
THE MARITIMES AT 00Z SATURDAY. THIS JET WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. HENCE SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHEAST PA FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODEL QPFS SHOW THIS DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SO HAVE POPS
DROPPING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD AFFECT NORTHEAST PA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NY SATURDAY. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING
ALL DAY SATURDAY FOR THE COMBINATION OF THE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS PER THE 12Z CMC AND EUROPEAN
MODELS. THE GFS AND NAM ARE DRY ALL DAY SATURDAY IN OUR AREA.
USED SUPERBLEND OF MODELS TO COME UP WITH A CONSENSUS FORECAST.
THEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SKIES WILL
TURN FAIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALL MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEXT WINTER
STORM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS. AS ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP IN THE
LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND LEADS TO MILD CONDITIONS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE BEGINS TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NEXT WEEK BUT IDEA IS THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR AND CHILLY
WEATHER FOR NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE ONLY FLYING CONCERN TODAY BEING GUSTY
WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT KITH, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KSYR AND KBGM.
TONIGHT MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS NOW OVER WESTERN VA MAY
TRY TO SNEAK NORTHWARD INTO KAVP AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS KBGM.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON THIS AS WE HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
COMPUTER MODELS WE USE TO FORECAST. THE BOTTOMLINE THOUGH IS THE
TWO TERMINALS MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR MVFR
AFTER 06Z.
ON FRIDAY MAINLY VFR EARLY, ASIDE FROM ANY LINGERING MVFR AT KAVP
AND KBGM. WHILE THIS TAF SET IS DRY, SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE INCLUDED
IN THE NEXT FEW TAFS UPDATES WITH RAIN LIKELY 21Z FRIDAY THROUGH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CLOUD DECK...BECOMING VFR.
SUN/MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
153 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF THANKSGIVING DAY DRY AND
MILD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT SPREADS RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
INTO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 500 MB.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
ADVECTING OVERHEAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND
500 MB AND UP. THERE WERE ALSO SCATTERED AREAS OF LOWER
STRATOCUMULUS THAT WERE MIXING OUT WITH THE GROWING BOUNDARY
LAYER MAINLY IN NORTHEAST PA AND EAST CENTRAL NY FROM THE WEAK
INSOLATION THAT WE SEE IN LATE NOVEMBER. SO FORECAST BEGINS PARTLY
CLOUDY ALL AREAS. THE NAM IS AGRESSIVE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CREEPING UP NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NY
BETWEEN 21Z AND 09Z AS SEEN IN THE 925 MB RH FIELDS WHICH BECOME
SATURATED. THE HRRR HAS MUCH LESS MOISTURE AT THIS LEVEL. THE
LATEST RAP ALSO IS MUCH LESS ON THE RH AT THE VERY LOW-LEVELS.
HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF RUNS ALSO DON`T HAVE AS MUCH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. SO WE WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS HERE AND KEEP MAINLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WON`T BE ARRIVING BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY SO NO PRECIP IN
FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER MILD DAY IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS +10C 925MB ISOTHERM
PUSHES TO THE NY/PA BORDER. TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 60 DOWN THE
LAKE PLAIN.
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS WARRANTS CATEGORICAL POPS, THOUGH QPF WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE.
DRY AIR RACES OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ON SATURDAY, CUTTING OFF
THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
COOL AND QUIET ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER ONTARIO AND NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM 40. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY... THEN THE NEXT SOUTHERN
BRANCH LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO OUR AREA. SNOW CHANCES APPEAR TO BE QUITE LOW THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS WINTER GETS OFF TO A SLOW START ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE ONLY FLYING CONCERN TODAY BEING GUSTY
WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT KITH, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KSYR AND KBGM.
TONIGHT MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS NOW OVER WESTERN VA MAY
TRY TO SNEAK NORTHWARD INTO KAVP AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS KBGM.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON THIS AS WE HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
COMPUTER MODELS WE USE TO FORECAST. THE BOTTOMLINE THOUGH IS THE
TWO TERMINALS MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR MVFR
AFTER 06Z.
ON FRIDAY MAINLY VFR EARLY, ASIDE FROM ANY LINGERING MVFR AT KAVP
AND KBGM. WHILE THIS TAF SET IS DRY, SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE INCLUDED
IN THE NEXT FEW TAFS UPDATES WITH RAIN LIKELY 21Z FRIDAY THROUGH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CLOUD DECK...BECOMING VFR.
SUN/MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/DJP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1258 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOS IN SRN INDIANA. THE
LATEST GFS AND HRRR ARE SHOWING THAT THESE MIGHT SNEAK INTO OUR
INDIANA COUNTIES. DONT THINK THEY WILL BE ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT...SO JUST ADDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE EXTREME
WESTERN COUNTIES.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS STILL
LOOK GOOD...SO NO CHANGES THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT. DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST
TO END FRIDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
PRESENCE OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND PVA. SHOWERS WILL REACH MOST
LOCATIONS INCLUDING CINCINNATI...DAYTON AND COLUMBUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS MAY NOT REACH FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH CHANCE
POPS FARTHER NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT LACKS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL CAUSE STREAMS TO RISE BUT FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO STAY NEAR 60 FRIDAY WHEN WARM AIR WILL
LINGER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP READINGS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LOW 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE FLATTENS...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ENDS UP DRY ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF KEPT A
MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN OPPOSITION TO ITS
00Z RUN AND THE 12Z GEM/GFS FORECAST SCENARIOS. A CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS SOME DEGREE OF WHITTLING AWAY THE POPS FROM THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION IS ALSO PREFERRED WITH THE EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL AGAIN INCREASE BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. BASED ON GFSE
SPREADS AND THE OVERALL SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING/PLACEMENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE WEATHER FEATURES BEYOND THE
WEEKEND IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY...THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH THE WARM STARTING POINT AT THE END OF THIS
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL STILL END UP VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL (PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW). A MORE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY
NEAR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD (MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TAFS WILL REMAIN WARM SECTORED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER
WITH FRONT OUT OVER THE MS VALLEY. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OF 6KFT CLOUDS AROUND KILN WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING JUST CI OVER THE TAFS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD LOSE THEIR GUSTS AROUND SUNSET...REMAINING SLY
AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT. GUSTS AROUND 20KTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AFTER 14Z.
HELD PCPN OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...JUST ADDING A
VCSH AT KCVG NEAR THE END OF THE 30 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1127 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY DEALING WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. TO START...HAVE AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/VERY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
AREA. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO LAST ANY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS IN
ANY ONE LOCATION...SO OPTING TO NOT ISSUE HEADLINE NORTH OF EXISTING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MORNING WILL BE ON SCATTERED PRECIP AREA LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE BULK OF APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF A TYNDALL-SIOUX FALLS-SLAYTON MN
LINE. WARM LAYER MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 850-750MB ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IS THE PROBLEMATIC COMPONENT OF THE FORECAST. NAM/RAP HOLD ON TO
WARM LAYER LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS COOLS THE
LAYER MORE QUICKLY. A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WHICH SOLUTION WILL PAN
OUT...ESPECIALLY SINCE SURFACE COOLING HAS BEEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BLENDED APPROACH GIVES RATE OF
COOLING ALOFT SIMILAR TO RECENT RAP RUNS AND SEE NO STRONG REASON TO
DIVERGE FROM THAT AT THIS POINT. END RESULT IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN OTHER WORDS...STILL LOOKING FOR THE
HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10-0.15 INCH IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...
AND LIGHT ICING OUTSIDE THE EARLY MORNING FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT AS
FAR NORTH AS PONCA-LE MARS-SPIRIT LAKE. THIS SHOULD BE TOPPED BY AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH
AND BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. GOING LOCATION OF ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
THREAT STILL GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MID AND
UPPER 20S...WITH LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A LITTLE ON SATURDAY IN A TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MUDDLED
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ON SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE
SPLIT WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM DUMBELLING A VORT MAX AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THUS BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND
GEM ROTATE THE VORT MAX INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...KEEPING LOW END POPS IN OUR WEST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT. LOWS LOOKING TO BE
IN THE TEENS.
WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS SOMEWHAT CONVERGE ON BRINGING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...BRINGING A
BETTER CONSENSUS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOOKS TO FINALLY SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OUR AREA DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OF NORMAL WITH
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30 AND LOWS UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT
OF NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS ORGANIZED. AFTER ABOUT 23Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ071.
MN...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ003-
013-014-020>022-031-032.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-
014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1208 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR....SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WHILE ONLY VCSH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR ALL AREA TAF
SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REACH ALL AREA TAF SITES BY AT LEAST MID
AFTERNOON...IF NOT SOONER. IN THE MEANTIME...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL BUT LOWER TO IFR WHEN THE MORE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY PUSHES INTO THE TERMINALS. IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD ONCE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER
SUNSET...INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH SO ONLY SHRA IS MENTIONED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FROPA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 12Z FRIDAY FOR THE DFW AREA
TERMINALS AND BY 18Z FOR KACT. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE AN ABRUPT
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS ENHANCED CONVECTION. DESPITE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE 30S...DO NOT EXPECT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
AJS
&&
.UPDATE...
A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO MORNING RAIN CHANCES HAS BEEN MADE AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY
INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE WEST OF I-35/35W DRASTICALLY AS OF MID
MORNING. LOOKING AT THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS...THE TTU
WRF SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE WITH THIS EARLIER DEVELOPMENT
THAN THE HRRR...NAM AND WRF-EAST MODELS...WHICH HOLD OFF MORE TIL
THIS AFTERNOON. I INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF I-35W
TO LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES WEST OF HWY 281. IN
ADDITION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THANKGIVING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THOUGH A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY
EXISTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE DFW METRO NORTH AND WEST...MY
CONCERN IS MORE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE WARMER TEMPS AND
STRONGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG COULD
OCCUR IF HIGHS CAN REACH THE MID 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...
MID LEVEL LASPE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEPER AND CLOSER TO 7 DEG
C/KM ACROSS CENTRAL TX VERSUS 6 DEG C/KM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO RELATIVELY DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LEFT THE AFTERNOON CONFIGURATION OF RAIN CHANCES THE
SAME. IN ADDITION...I TONED DOWN THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT A STRONG OR BRIEF SEVERE STORM
COULDN/T HAPPEN BEING THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CORRELATE WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SPEED SHEAR
BETWEEN 35-45 KTS IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE
CENTRAL TX WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015/
THE OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE...PRIMARILY TO TODAY/S FORECAST WHICH IS PROBABLY THE MOST
UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS BECAUSE WE ARE A LITTLE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS A LEAD IMPULSE AND STRONG
JET STREAK MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL OF
THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THEIR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS AND ALSO BUMPED UP THE
START OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6PM. THE QUESTION
IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT GENERALLY SAYS NO - THAT WE WILL BE
TOO COOL AT THE SURFACE...BUT THEY ARE ONLY FORECASTING UPPER 60S
FOR HIGHS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND WE CURRENTLY ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FORECASTS FROM THE MOS INDICATE WE SHOULD
REACH THE LOW 70S AND MODIFYING THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THOSE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GIVES US ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT A MARGINAL WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. SINCE THIS
THREAT IS SO RELIANT ON DAYTIME INSTABILITY THE WINDOW WILL BE
BRIEF FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM.
THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SHIFT THE
EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL AXIS ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE WEST AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THAT DIRECTION. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING
AVERAGE TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES...WITH THE 7 INCH BULLSEYE NOW
NEAR GAINESVILLE. 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-20 AND
I-30 CORRIDORS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OF COURSE GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND WE
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NAM WHICH HAS DISPLAYED EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND USUALLY IS THE BEST MODEL TO USE IN THIS WEATHER
PATTERN. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NW ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE
DFW METROPLEX AROUND SUNRISE...WACO AREA BY NOON AND CLEARING THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATE AFTERNOON. THE NAM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
LOOK VERY REASONABLE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR KNIFING SOUTH THROUGH
THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER OVER THE
EAST WHERE THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE MORE SHALLOW AND MORE PRONE TO
MODERATION FROM WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE GROUND. TEMPS WILL DROP
20 TO 30 DEGREES WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT SO THE
NUMBERS LISTED ON FRIDAY/S HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS MISLEADING SINCE
TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM APPRECIABLY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GIVEN ALL OF THE RAIN IN THE AREA AND
CONTINUING WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS RAIN IS FALLING. BECAUSE THE
AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS VERY WARM...THE RAIN WILL HELP
TRANSPORT SOME OF THIS HEAT TO THE GROUND. RAINDROPS WILL BE TOO
WARM TO FREEZE WHEN THEY REACH THE SURFACE...SO NO TRUE FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER IF THERE IS A LONG ENOUGH BREAK IN THE
RAIN...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN WATER MAY FREEZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
THIS IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS.
THE TIMING AND CHARACTER OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT WILL EVOLVE
AS THE CAUSE OF LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE CHANGES TO DIFFERENT
FORCING MECHANISMS. TODAY AND TONIGHT/S RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL
BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND BE CAPABLE OF HIGH BUT VERY LOCALIZED
2+ INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
GRADUALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN THERE
COULD BE A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AS THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SOLID BAND OF RAIN
AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
WARM MOIST AIR IS LIFTED VIA FRONTOGENESIS. THIS BAND SHOULD
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NW ZONES AND INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
BY SUNRISE BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL BE SO SHALLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES...ITS LIFTING POWER WILL BECOME
MARGINALIZED. THEREFORE WE EXPECT JUST A LOT OF WEAK SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAINFALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY
AS PACIFIC HURRICANE SANDRA BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA. SANDRA
WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE EAST OF THE BAJA REGION OF MEXICO ON
SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS MEXICO AND THROUGH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE PACIFIC MOISTURE...THE REAL INFLUENCE AND CAUSE OF THE
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN OVER TEXAS WILL BE FROM STRONG DYNAMICS FOR
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS LIFT PEAKS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD PRODUCE A LARGE BAND OF
MODERATE RAIN THAT STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BAND WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE RAIN RATES
WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH WITH THIS ROUND OF RAIN ACTIVITY...THE RAIN
WILL BE PERSISTENT RESULTING IN MULTI-INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ON SATURATED SOILS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDRA CLEAR THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
PRIMARILY DUE TO A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
VERY WET BY TUESDAY BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH THAT SYSTEM
EVERY RUN. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND UKMET SHOW A DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THURSDAY. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW LIGHT RAIN ON
MONDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE REGION.
AGAIN WILL KEEP THE POPS AT 10 PERCENT...BUT KEEP A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER AROUND WITH COOL AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 50 55 38 39 / 70 90 100 90 100
WACO, TX 75 65 69 39 41 / 60 60 80 70 80
PARIS, TX 71 62 68 39 43 / 40 80 90 90 100
DENTON, TX 70 46 49 36 38 / 80 90 100 90 100
MCKINNEY, TX 72 53 56 37 40 / 60 90 100 90 100
DALLAS, TX 74 56 59 38 40 / 60 80 90 90 90
TERRELL, TX 74 64 68 39 42 / 50 70 90 80 90
CORSICANA, TX 75 65 71 41 44 / 50 60 70 80 80
TEMPLE, TX 74 66 70 39 42 / 50 50 70 70 70
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 44 47 33 35 / 80 90 100 90 100
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
CURRENT FORECAST PLAYING OUT WELL SO FAR...THOUGH STARTING TO HAVE
SOME CONCERNS THAT OUR SNOW TOTALS MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE.
12Z GUIDANCE SUITE REALLY TRENDED PRECIPITATION EAST FASTER INTO
THE EVENING...OWING TO MORE EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE BENEATH...SUCH
THAT MANY SPOTS IN THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA MAY WELL END UP WITH
ONLY A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION (ENDING NO LATER
THAN 00Z). STARTING TO SEE MORE AND MORE "UNKNOWN PRECIP"
OBSERVATIONS OUT INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL IA...
SUGGESTING A TRANSITION TO SLEET IS UNDERWAY...IN LINE WITH
EARLIER EXPECTATIONS.
SHOULD SEE THAT TRANSITION LINE CONTINUE WORKING TO THE EAST...
WITH MORE AND MORE SNOW ENTERING THE PICTURE AS WE LOSE THE
INITIAL 2-3C WARM NOSE. STILL...JUST NOT SURE WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH
PRECIP TO REALLY DELIVER OUR CURRENT 2-3" AS FORECAST...AND WILL
BEGIN THE TREND OF LOWERING AMOUNTS TO SOME DEGREE. ALSO NOT SO
SURE WHAT IMPACT THERE WILL BE GIVEN WARM ROAD TEMPS INTO THE LOW
40S (WEBCAMS IN THE CURRENT SNOW AREA SHOWING JUST WET ROADS SO
FAR)...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER RATES
EXPECTED PER RADAR TRENDS...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR US TO SLUSH UP THE ROADS. OVERALL...THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL ALONE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COUPLED WITH RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A LONG
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WAS SENDING
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING MOST OF THIS
RAIN ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL
IA/NORTHERN IL...WITHIN BAND OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THROUGH WESTERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA. OTHERWISE... FAIRLY GOOD
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE AREA...RANGING FROM MIDDLE/UPPER
30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI.
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES VERY LITTLE TODAY WHILE A
WEAK AREA AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO SOUTHEAST WI BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. THERMAL
PROFILE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CAUSE A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WI BY LATER THIS MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH THE
DAY..TRANSITIONING TO WINTRY MIX/SNOW THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THIS PRECIPITATION EAST
OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...COULD
SEE LOSS OF CLOUD ICE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AND LIGHT
GLAZING.
BOTTOM LINE...AS OF NOW...LOOKS LIKE 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM CHARLES CITY IA TO WINONA MN AND NEILLSVILLE WI...WITH A
DUSTING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. BASED ON THIS AND
GLAZING POTENTIAL...WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
PLACE AND HAVE DAYSHIFT EVALUATE IF EXPANSION EASTWARD IS NEEDED
BASED ON PRECIPITATION TYPE TRENDS/INTENSITY WITH 12Z MODEL RUN.
DRY/COLDER WEATHER IS THEN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S.
SNOW/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT NOT GOING TO NAIL DOWN AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF FOCUSED FORCING. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
IFR CONDITIONS ARE SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...
PERIODS OF RAIN MIXING WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SLEET AND
THEN SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN GENERAL...THE LATEST TRENDS
SUPPORT A FASTER EXIT TO PRECIPITATION...SUGGESTING THAT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE MINOR...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A WINDOW
OF SOME HEAVIER SNOW CLIPPING KRST BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z. THE WINTRY
MIX WILL END AT KLSE BY 04Z...WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING AS
OUR SYSTEM DEPARTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
029-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ032.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
095.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ079-
086-087-094.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ009-
018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ008.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...LAWRENCE