Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/24/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1229 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS ON
THE FRONT MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF
RAIN TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
NOTING A FOCUSED AREA OF DEFORMATION ACTING UPON INCREASED
MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF A PRECIP SHIELD S OF LI. THIS HAS MANIFEST
ITSELF AS SOME SHRA MAINLY ACROSS E MA NEAR AND E OF THE I-495
CORRIDOR. IN THE MEANTIME THE SRN PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO
BLOSSOM AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS CATCHING UP. POPS WERE UPDATED
TO REFLECT MAINLY A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND RAW RAP DATA...TRYING TO
BETTER REFINE THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER UPDATES WERE TO LOWER TEMPS A
BIT ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION. LOW DWPTS SUGGEST ROOM FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND THESE AREAS WILL ALSO REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS CT...RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. KEPT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THIS REGION FOR
THIS MORNING.
SYNOPTIC INGREDIENTS STILL IN PLACE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. THIS SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND SLOW
ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS. THIS WAVE WILL APPROACH THE BENCHMARK VERY
LATE TODAY. THE INCREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOWARD SOUTHEAST MA LATER
TODAY. EXPECTING A VERY SHARP WESTERN CUTOFF TO THE RAINFALL
SHIELD. NOT VERY CONFIDENT WHERE THAT WILL ESTABLISH RIGHT NOW. SO
WILL EXTEND A CHANCE OF RAINFALL WEST INTO NORTHEAST CT AND
CENTRAL MA. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE REFINED WITH LATER FORECASTS.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ONE LAST BURST OF MODERATE RAIN IS
EXPECTED UNTIL THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY. FINAL STORM TOTALS
COULD REACH 1.0-1.5 INCHES ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS...BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A VERY TIGHT QPF GRADIENT. WILL BE A
RACE BETWEEN THE DRYING AND COLD ADVECTION AS TO WHETHER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIP IS OBSERVED BEFORE IT FINALLY COMES TO AN
END...BUT AT THIS TIME SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE DRYING WILL WIN...SO
MAINTAIN ONLY LIQUID PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL QUICKLY OVER THE THE INTERIOR WITH
CLEARING SKIES. TIGHTER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOWARDS THE COAST.
MONDAY...
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE OUTER CAPE EARLY MONDAY.
OTHERWISE DRIER AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WELL
TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MODEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN SUNDAY...DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SEASONABLY COOL OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUE
* DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK
* A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF PRECIP
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODELS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODELS ON THIS TIME PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT
THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO THE
MARITIMES...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT...TEMPERATURES ARE SUCH THAT THIS WILL LIKELY BE RAIN. PRIOR
TO THE FRONT COMING THROUGH...WE WILL SEE CONTINUED WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TRENDING TOWARD VFR ALL TERMINALS NW OF A LINE FROM HVN-BVY. S AND
E OF THIS LINE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH A RAIN SHIELD
MOVING N ACROSS THE REGION. IFR CONFINED TO MAINLY CAPE/ISLANDS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW...AT OR AROUND 10 KT.
00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY
DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
EXPECT GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM MIX OF MVFR/IFR TO VFR AT ALL E
MA/RI TERMINALS ESPECIALLY BEGINNING MAINLY AFTER 03Z. RAIN WILL
ALSO SLOWLY COME TO AN END THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WET
RUNWAYS ARE LIKELY EARLY. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MIXED SLEET/SNOW MAINLY FOR E MA BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS BETWEEN
03Z-06Z. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT AT TIMES.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS THROUGH 03Z...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE AFTER. ISSUE IS WHETHER BRIEF LIFTING OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR/DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST WATERS
THIS MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH NEAR 5 FT
AGAIN BY THIS EVENING. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...NW WINDS
ALSO INCREASE 25-30 KT TONIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT REMAINS BOSTON
HARBOR DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN WIND STRENGTH AND ITS DURATION.
MONDAY...GUSTY NNW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...STRONGEST WIND ACROSS THE
EASTERN MA WATERS. ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED. VSBY MAY LOWER EARLY IN
RAIN THEN IMPROVING QUICKLY.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH
QUICKLY SWITCHING TO SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS SLOWLY
DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ235-237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
959 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS ON
THE FRONT MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF
RAIN TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
NOTING A FOCUSED AREA OF DEFORMATION ACTING UPON INCREASED
MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF A PRECIP SHIELD S OF LI. THIS HAS MANIFEST
ITSELF AS SOME SHRA MAINLY ACROSS E MA NEAR AND E OF THE I-495
CORRIDOR. IN THE MEANTIME THE SRN PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO
BLOSSOM AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS CATCHING UP. POPS WERE UPDATED
TO REFLECT MAINLY A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND RAW RAP DATA...TRYING TO
BETTER REFINE THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER UPDATES WERE TO LOWER TEMPS A
BIT ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION. LOW DWPTS SUGGEST ROOM FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND THESE AREAS WILL ALSO REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS CT...RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. KEPT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THIS REGION FOR
THIS MORNING.
SYNOPTIC INGREDIENTS STILL IN PLACE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. THIS SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND SLOW
ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS. THIS WAVE WILL APPROACH THE BENCHMARK VERY
LATE TODAY. THE INCREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOWARD SOUTHEAST MA LATER
TODAY. EXPECTING A VERY SHARP WESTERN CUTOFF TO THE RAINFALL
SHIELD. NOT VERY CONFIDENT WHERE THAT WILL ESTABLISH RIGHT NOW. SO
WILL EXTEND A CHANCE OF RAINFALL WEST INTO NORTHEAST CT AND
CENTRAL MA. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE REFINED WITH LATER FORECASTS.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ONE LAST BURST OF MODERATE RAIN IS
EXPECTED UNTIL THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY. FINAL STORM TOTALS
COULD REACH 1.0-1.5 INCHES ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS...BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A VERY TIGHT QPF GRADIENT. WILL BE A
RACE BETWEEN THE DRYING AND COLD ADVECTION AS TO WHETHER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIP IS OBSERVED BEFORE IT FINALLY COMES TO AN
END...BUT AT THIS TIME SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE DRYING WILL WIN...SO
MAINTAIN ONLY LIQUID PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL QUICKLY OVER THE THE INTERIOR WITH
CLEARING SKIES. TIGHTER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOWARDS THE COAST.
MONDAY...
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE OUTER CAPE EARLY MONDAY.
OTHERWISE DRIER AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WELL
TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MODEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN SUNDAY...DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SEASONABLY COOL OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUE
* DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK
* A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF PRECIP
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODELS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODELS ON THIS TIME PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT
THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO THE
MARITIMES...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT...TEMPERATURES ARE SUCH THAT THIS WILL LIKELY BE RAIN. PRIOR
TO THE FRONT COMING THROUGH...WE WILL SEE CONTINUED WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING ISSUES.
MVFR/IFR EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR
CT/WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA...THEN NE MA/RI BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AREAS ACROSS SE MA ARE LIKELY TO STAY MVFR/IFR AS A MORE STEADY
RAINFALL DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
EXPECTING A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN MVFR/IFR OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS...AND VFR FARTHER NORTHWEST.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY. OTHERWISE
DRY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR/DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST WATERS
THIS MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH NEAR 5 FT
AGAIN BY THIS EVENING. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...NW WINDS
ALSO INCREASE 25-30 KT TONIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT REMAINS BOSTON
HARBOR DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN WIND STRENGTH AND ITS DURATION.
MONDAY...GUSTY NNW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...STRONGEST WIND ACROSS THE
EASTERN MA WATERS. ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED. VSBY MAY LOWER EARLY IN
RAIN THEN IMPROVING QUICKLY.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH
QUICKLY SWITCHING TO SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS SLOWLY
DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ235-237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
103 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT PASSING JUST EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH EARLY THROUGH MIDWEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS NEXT
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED
OVER WESTERN NY AND CENTRAL PA AS OF 06Z. CURRENT FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR...WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
POSITION OF THIS LINE...SUGGESTS THAT THE LINE OF SHOWERS WEAKENS
AS IT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH TOWARD THE AREA. THE RUC AND NARRE
ARE IN LINE WITH SCENARIO...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS ADVECTING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST LOW CLOUD
MOVEMENT/EXPANSION ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
THEN...UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PIVOT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER
TONIGHT. AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE AND WEAK LIFT IS REALIZED...
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
VEERING WINDS TO THE SE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH MORE
THAN EVENING READINGS. GENERALLY EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST...WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS NEARLY
STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES IN TIME...AND SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
AS THE UPPER STEERING FLOW BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT
(MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION)...THE FRONT LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS.
HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW AS IT
RIDES ALONG THE FRONT...DUE TO SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ALOFT.
ANY SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY MOVE EAST...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG OF AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS
PICKED UP. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MOST OF THIS PRECIP REMAINS TO THE
EAST...BUT POPS WERE RAISED SOME...PARTICULARLY FOR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS ARE RAISED
FURTHER FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SUPPORT
THIS IDEA.
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAINS AROUND NORMAL LEVELS. CAA BEHIND THE
FRONT THOUGH WILL ALLOW READINGS TO FALL BACK TO THE LOWER 30S NEAR
THE COAST...AND 20S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY STARTS A TRANSITION PERIOD TO MORE RIDGING ALOFT WITH A
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THE JET STREAM
WILL BE RISING FARTHER NORTH AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES WITH A MILD
AIRMASS MOVING IN PLACE. THE LOCAL WEATHER REMAINS DRY IN MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM DURING THE NEW WEEK WITH A RISING TREND TO
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FORECAST ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY AND THEN JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. THEN MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BETWEEN
5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT SATURDAY.
THIS COMES FROM A HIGH PRESSURE AREA HAVING A SOURCE IN THE SOUTH.
THIS MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN
HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
NW FLOW DECREASES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...STAYS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MIDWEEK AND THEN BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS CONTINUES
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT
NEXT SATURDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST DILEMMA OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER OR NOT CIGS DROP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER...AND
WHETHER CIGS THEN REMAIN MVFR. AREAS OF CIGS AROUND 2500FT IN THE
AREA AND WILL MENTION IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW...KEEPING THE MAIN
FORECAST VFR...WITH CIGS AROUND 3500FT.
SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND BECOME WNW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...10Z- 13Z. G20 KT POSSIBLE
IN THE MORNING.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
STALLS JUST EAST OF THE TERMINALS SUN AFT. IT APPEARS THE NYC
TERMINALS WILL BE RIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RAIN WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR IN A NLY FLOW. HOWEVER...KGON AND POSSIBLY
KISP MAY EXPERIENCE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SE WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THEN WINDS
SHIFT S-SW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...AND W-NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE IN THE MORNING...THEN MAY DIMINISH
BRIEFLY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FROM THE
NW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING FOR
BORDERLINE WINDS AND SEAS. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE LONG TERM...MONDAY WILL STILL HAVE A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NW FLOW 10-20 KT GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BUT
DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. THE OCEAN SEAS SLIGHTLY
LOWER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE NEAR 5
FT SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AND WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...SEAS COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN CLOSER FROM THE SOUTH.
OTHER WATERS WILL STAY BELOW SCA THE WHOLE TIME.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE WATERS CONTINUES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAINFALL COMING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...JM/JP/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET/DW
MARINE...JM/JP/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1243 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RACE FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY INTO QUEBEC TODAY...AS
ITS COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TUESDAY A WARM FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH MILD
FAIR CONDITIONS FOR NOVEMBER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1158 PM EST...SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE LOCATED CLOSE TO
TORONTO...AND HEADED NORTHEAST. THE SFC COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS NOW CROSSING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK STATE
AND WESTERN PA...AND IS HEADED TOWARDS OUR AREA.
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME RETURNS OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WELL UPSTREAM ALONG THE SFC
COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH READING RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO A
SOUTHERLY WIND BRINGING IN WARMER AIR UP THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
ALLOWING SOME MIXING...WHILE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN CALM HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO RADIATE. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES...TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
IN PLACES WHERE THE TEMPS HAS FALLEN INTO THE LOW 30S MAY ACTUALLY
RISE A LITTLE BIT. AS A RESULT...ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DUE TO ENOUGH WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. UP TO A HALF
AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK IN THOSE
AREAS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH
TEMPS MAY FALL FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST SPOTS.
AS THE FRONT MOVES ON BY...CHILLIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH A WSW FLOW AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES
WILL ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR 50 IN THE VALLEYS...WHILE HOLDING CLOSER
TO 40 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KEEP IN MIND THESE VALUES MIGHT
HAPPEN BY MIDDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WEST WIND 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION.
WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE...LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS. EVEN IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING
ON SUNDAY...THE AIR WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ALOFT AND CERTAINLY VERTICAL
INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPE COULD GENERATE THESE SNOW SHOWERS EVEN IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY PURE LAKE EFFECT.
HOWEVER...AFTER EXAMINING THE EXPERIMENTAL KVIE CSTAR PROGRAM...
IT NOW APPEARS THE INLAND LAKE EXTENT OFF OF ONTARIO WILL ONLY
BE ABOUT 50 MILES...LIMITED DUE TO SOME SHEAR IN THE COLUMN AND
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THEREFORE PURE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PLUMES MIGHT ONLY GRAZE HERKIMER AND LIKELY NOT EVEN REACH
HAMILTON COUNTIES. THEREFORE NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED.
IF CONDITIONS LOOK DIFFERENT LATER ON...HEADLINES WILL BE RECONSIDERED.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON SUNDAY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
LIGHT...AN INCH OR LESS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO
OUR SOUTH. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG WITH ANOTHER MID
LEVEL TROUGH ROLLING TO OUR NORTH... COULD TRIGGER A FEW MORE
BOUTS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL MAINLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
OVER OUR ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS AGAIN
ASSUMES THE MAIN PLUMES OFF ONTARIO STAY MAINLY TO OUR WEST. IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL BUT RIGHT NOW THEY APPEAR TO JUST MISS MOST
OF OUR AREA.
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND
DONE...SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL PERIODS SO AGAIN NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE. KEEP IN MIND IF ANY
PLUME FROM LAKE ONTARIO WAS ABLE TO PENETRATE INTO HERKIMER OR
HAMILTON COUNTIES...AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY A LITTLE HIGHER.
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE
OR FLURRY IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS CHILLY BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT...AND SOLUTION HAS BEEN STABLE FOR A
FEW DAYS FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
OVER W ADRNDKS...BUT CAP WILL BE LOW...UPPER SUPPORT GONE...AND
SHEAR UNFAVORABLE. OTHERWISE SFC PRESSURE RIDGE OVER REGION WILL
RESULT IN A FAIR DAY IN MOST AREAS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MID LEVEL WAA...FOLLOWED BY A WMFNT WILL
RESULT IN INCRG CLOUDS AND ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. HWVR BY TUES NT 500
HPA RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ALONG THE E SEABOARD WITH FAIR
CONDS...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRANQUIL MILD THANKSGIVING
PERIOD.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHLY BLO NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. OTRW
AN IDEAL REGIME TO USE SUPERBLEND IN GRIDS. NO TARGETS OF
OPPORTUNITY IN THE STF.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONG TERM PATTERN. MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE
SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE
INDICATED CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
IN VALLEY AREAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO
NEAR 50. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MID 30S TO NEAR
40 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING THE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR KPSF. WILL
INCLUDE A VCSH FOR ALL SITES...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. MOST TAF SITES SHOULD ONLY SEE PRECIP AS
RAIN...ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN AT KGFL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR KALB...WHERE WINDS WILL FUNNEL UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
ANY RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY
FOR ALL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT...
HEAVIEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE. OTHERWISE...RAIN SHOWER AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WELL UNDER A QUARTER INCH MOST PLACES.
ASIDE FROM ON GOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LOOKS MAINLY DRY SUNDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY. EACH NIGHT WILL SEE A NEAR RECOVERY
OF RR VALUES...DROPPING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 40S AND
50S EACH AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
WHERE THERE WILL BE POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY
IN THE 50S AND EVEN 60S.
IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY ON SUNDAY...WITH A WESTERLY
WIND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.
THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFTER TONIGHT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES SUNDAY...THE
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/IRL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1158 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1158 PM EST...SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE LOCATED CLOSE TO
TORONTO...AND HEADED NORTHEAST. THE SFC COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS NOW CROSSING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK STATE
AND WESTERN PA...AND IS HEADED TOWARDS OUR AREA.
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME RETURNS OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WELL UPSTREAM ALONG THE SFC
COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH READING RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO A
SOUTHERLY WIND BRINGING IN WARMER AIR UP THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
ALLOWING SOME MIXING...WHILE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN CALM HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO RADIATE. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES...TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
IN PLACES WHERE THE TEMPS HAS FALLEN INTO THE LOW 30S MAY ACTUALLY
RISE A LITTLE BIT. AS A RESULT...ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DUE TO ENOUGH WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. UP TO A HALF
AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK IN THOSE
AREAS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH
TEMPS MAY FALL FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE FRONT MOVES ON BY...CHILLIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH A WSW FLOW AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES
WILL ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR 50 IN THE VALLEYS...WHILE HOLDING CLOSER
TO 40 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KEEP IN MIND THESE VALUES MIGHT
HAPPEN BY MIDDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WEST WIND 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION.
WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE...LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS. EVEN IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING
ON SUNDAY...THE AIR WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ALOFT AND CERTAINLY VERTICAL
INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPE COULD GENERATE THESE SNOW SHOWERS EVEN IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY PURE LAKE EFFECT.
HOWEVER...AFTER EXAMINING THE EXPERIMENTAL KVIE CSTAR PROGRAM...
IT NOW APPEARS THE INLAND LAKE EXTENT OFF OF ONTARIO WILL ONLY
BE ABOUT 50 MILES...LIMITED DUE TO SOME SHEAR IN THE COLUMN AND
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THEREFORE PURE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PLUMES MIGHT ONLY GRAZE HERKIMER AND LIKELY NOT EVEN REACH
HAMILTON COUNTIES. THEREFORE NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED.
IF CONDITIONS LOOK DIFFERENT LATER ON...HEADLINES WILL BE RECONSIDERED.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON SUNDAY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
LIGHT...AN INCH OR LESS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG
WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH ROLLING TO OUR NORTH...
COULD TRIGGER A FEW MORE BOUTS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL
MAINLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER OUR ADIRONDACKS AND
PERHAPS CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS AGAIN ASSUMES THE MAIN
PLUMES OFF ONTARIO STAY MAINLY TO OUR WEST. IT WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL BUT RIGHT NOW THEY APPEAR TO JUST MISS MOST OF OUR AREA.
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND
DONE...SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL PERIODS SO AGAIN NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE. KEEP IN MIND IF ANY
PLUME FROM LAKE ONTARIO WAS ABLE TO PENETRATE INTO HERKIMER OR
HAMILTON COUNTIES...AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY A LITTLE HIGHER.
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE
OR FLURRY IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS.
OTHERWISE IT LOOKS CHILLY BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS
IN THE COLDEST AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSE TO 40 IN THE VALLEYS.
BY TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD ALOFT...THERE WILL BE
SLOW MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CEASE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONG TERM PATTERN. MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE
SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE
INDICATED CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
IN VALLEY AREAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 TO
NEAR 50. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MID 30S TO NEAR
40 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING THE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR KPSF. WILL
INCLUDE A VCSH FOR ALL SITES...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. MOST TAF SITES SHOULD ONLY SEE PRECIP AS
RAIN...ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN AT KGFL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR KALB...WHERE WINDS WILL FUNNEL UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
ANY RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY
FOR ALL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT...
HEAVIEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE. OTHERWISE...RAIN SHOWER AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WELL UNDER A QUARTER INCH MOST PLACES.
ASIDE FROM ON GOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LOOKS MAINLY DRY SUNDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY. EACH NIGHT WILL SEE A NEAR RECOVERY
OF RR VALUES...DROPPING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 40S AND
50S EACH AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
WHERE THERE WILL BE POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY
IN THE 50S AND EVEN 60S.
IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY ON SUNDAY...WITH A WESTERLY
WIND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.
THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFTER TONIGHT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES SUNDAY...THE
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/IRL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
336 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND MONDAY)...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICT INCREASING
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ON THE HEELS OF THIS FEATURE...A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTHWARD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALONG
A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE... A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MEANDER EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE ARE STEWING OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS...WITH LESSER
COVERAGE OVER THE MAINLAND.
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
STATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL DECREASE IN
REFLECTIVITIES INLAND...WITH A NOTED INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
HEIGHT FALLS/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT.
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT
SURGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS NORTH
OF I-4 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF QUICKLY
AS DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR IS ADVECTED IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
AREAS SOUTH OF I-4 WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS COME TO AN END SOMETIME
THIS EVENING...AS THE FRONT EVENTUALLY WORKS SOUTH.
WITH RATHER HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR. IN ADDITION...WEAK MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOW
SHOWER/STORM MOVEMENT...AND SOME TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
IS ALSO POSSIBLE...LEADING TO LOCALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-4
WILL EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIER RAINS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.
RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN IN LOCALIZED AREAS...AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH TO TWO INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION AS YOU TRAVEL
TODAY...AND BE PREPARED FOR SLOW DOWNS WITHIN HEAVIER RAINS.
ON THE HEELS OF THE FRONT...BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS COLD ADVECTION
PERSISTS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS TO TUMBLE...WITH WIDESPREAD 40
AND 50 DEGREE READINGS...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME UPPER 30S UP NORTH
FOR MONDAY MORNING LOWS. WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS...HIGHS
WILL COME IN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY... GENERALLY IN THE 60S...THOUGH
PARTS OF LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES MAY ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S. TIME TO BREAK OUT SOME WARMER CLOTHES!
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THAT PUSHED A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND PROVIDE A MORE
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE SE U.S.
NORTH OF FLORIDA BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE THAT WILL
INCREASE WINDS MAINLY OVER THE GULF WATERS. BY WEDNESDAY THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND BUT
LEAVE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE PENINSULA
WHICH WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND BRING MOIST AIR FROM THE
ATLANTIC. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFF
THE COAST OF FLORIDA THURSDAY BUT PROVIDES LITTLE INFLUENCE TO
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST WILL UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HR. WITH A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND AN APPROACHING
FRONT...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HEAVY
RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND STORMS...REDUCING VSBYS TO 3 MILES
OR LESS AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CREATE
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL WORTH
SOUTH...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
THIS EVENING...AND GENERATING BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
VARIABLE WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNRISE IN
THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE
LOCALLY ENHANCED AROUND MARINE THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS OFFSHORE...EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT STARTING THIS MORNING...AND EXTENDING INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY TO BORDERLINED
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TO THE NORTH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL KEEP FIRE CONCERNS
AT BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITIES FROM FALLING TO CRITICAL
VALUES DURING THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM MID
TO LATE WEEK...WITH NO WILDFIRE CONCERNS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 74 52 67 50 / 70 10 0 0
FMY 77 57 72 53 / 80 30 0 0
GIF 72 49 66 49 / 70 10 0 0
SRQ 76 55 68 52 / 70 10 0 0
BKV 71 47 64 43 / 70 10 0 0
SPG 73 57 67 54 / 70 10 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/AUSTIN
LONG TERM...03/PAXTON
DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
104 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015
.AVIATION...
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED LATE THIS EVENING...SO HAVE KEPT
ONLY VCSH IN TAFS THROUGH MID-MRNG...THEN WITH PREVAILING
RAIN/SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET AS POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT. ACTIVITY
WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT...VCSH MAINTAINED. CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT NO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. PERIODS
OF VSBY AND ESPECIALLY CIG RESTRICTIONS QUITE POSSIBLE...BUT
DURATIONS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND TIMING QUITE UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE VFR PREVAILING. DID ADD TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT KPBI
OVERNIGHT...WHERE LOW STRATUS APPEARS TO BE MOST PREVALENT. LIGHT
MAINLY NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHWEST BY MID-
MORNING...AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS THEY BACK TO THE WEST AND
EVENING NORTH AFTER SUNSET. GUSTS TO 20 KT AFTER NOON ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015/
UPDATE...
A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FL
THIS MID EVENING....WITH RAIN MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION. HOWEVER, RECENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT JUST
OCCURRED OVER THE SOUTHERN EVERGLADES...AND THIS IS LIKELY A SIGN
OF CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH WAVES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING SOUTH FL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. HRRR AND
WRF RUNS SHOWING ACTIVE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGH POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF RE- DEVELOPMENT.
/GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE NW GULF. THIS WILL MOVE ESE AND ACROSS FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...A SOUTHEAST WIND IS PUMPING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MID LEVELS HAVE COOLED...AND WITH THE
MOIST, UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON.
NOTING A COUPLE OF BANDS OF HEFTY SHOWERS/STORMS SETTING UP
RECENTLY...ONE OVER METRO BROWARD AND ANOTHER FORMING JUST OFF
MIAMI BEACH. WILL NEED TO WATCH THESE AS TRAINING CELLS WITHIN
THESE BANDS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH AND INSTABILITY JUST ENOUGH FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HELICITY DOES LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT-
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ANY SEVERE RISK IS LOOKING EXTREMELY
LOW AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE OVERCAST SKIES AND CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SO THE MAIN RISK TO HIGHLIGHT IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO STREET
FLOODING.
THE FRONT GETS A PUSH SOUTHWARD SUNDAY EVENING...AND PASSES ACROSS
SOUTH FL DURING THE EVENING PER GFS AND SLIGHTLY LATER PER ECWMF.
RAIN/TSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL GET SHUNTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS
IT PASSES WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR FLOWING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA ON NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS
FINALLY BELOW 70F FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS FALL FOR FORT LAUDERDALE
AND MIAMI (RECORD LATEST DATE!)
LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING WILL FEEL CHILLY AFTER SUCH A WARM, HUMID
FALL...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S SOUTHEAST LOCALES TO THE
50S FROM THE NAPLES AREA TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL ONLY RANGE FROM AROUND 70F NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO
THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST COAST. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A BREEZY NE-E WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
NEXT WEEK AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...IT WILL FEEL NICE. A
FEW SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ONSHORE THE EAST COAST NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT THEY WILL BE QUICK
PASSING WITH MOST LOCALES REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE TIME.
THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST NEXT
WEEK WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. /GREGORIA
MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WATERS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY THEN
NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. SEAS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT TO 7-9 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS AND 9+ FEET IN THE GULF STREAM. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY, THEN CONTINUE E-NE THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH A FRESH BREEZE PREVAILING.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS COMING UP NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHEST
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ON WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. NUISANCE
TIDAL FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND
POSSIBLY EXACERBATED BY THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER WE`LL SEE ANY
TIDAL FLOODING BUT THE POSSIBILITY CERTAINLY EXISTS AND WE`LL KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON IT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 62 74 64 78 / 50 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 62 75 65 78 / 60 20 20 20
MIAMI 67 77 64 79 / 60 20 20 20
NAPLES 59 73 56 78 / 50 0 0 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
125 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. COLDER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IS NEAR THE APPALACHIANS AS OF 03Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOWARD 12Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND THE BEST DYNAMICS SHIFT FURTHER OFF
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH CHANCE POPS INTO
EARLY PORTIONS OF TONIGHT...WITH COVERAGE SCATTERED. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THE HRRR SHOWS ANOTHER BAND OF RAINFALL MOVING INTO MAINLY THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 10Z
WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY EAST THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING WITH THE RAINFALL TONIGHT SO HAVE
ADJUSTED CURRENT FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER VORT/JET STREAK WILL SHIFT SE AND DEEPEN THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SHIFT IT INTO THE E CONUS SUN/SUN NT....WITH TROUGH
AXIS PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION SUN NT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING AND SLIGHTLY BACKING SW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THAT APPEARS WILL SLOW THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES PRECIPITATION MAY NOT EXIT
THE SE FA UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED POPS
OVER EXTREME ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A COOL DRY AIR HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS WILL
SETTLE INTO OUR REGION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIN TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING SUN AND MON NT. FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR NWS CAE FA HAS
ENDED FOR THIS FALL SEASON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
LATEST GFS INDICATING SURFACE FRONT SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN CURRENT
UNCERTAINTIES...FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST
PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TODAY. MVFR CIGS
EARLIER HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
TO PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BUT COULD IMPACT OGB BRIEFLY LATER THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN. THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY MVFR CIGS COULD RETURN
AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
AFTER 13Z-15Z AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME LESS CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON
AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
DURING THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
840 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
Weak high pressure centered over Iowa southeast thru central
Illinois will drift to the east of the area by Tuesday morning.
Satellite data indicates quite a bit of high level clouds
streaming in from Iowa early this evening with quite a bit of
high and mid level clouds seen further northwest to the Dakotas.
Quite a bit of moisture added to the boundary layer today from
the melting that occurred with the mild temperatures. Main
question overnight is what affect the band of cirrus has, if any,
on the potential for fog development as winds will be quite
light under the surface ridge axis.
What would otherwise be an excellent setup for fog is still in
question this hour as forecast soundings off the RAP were not
nearly as aggressive with the fog threat as the HRRR which
highlights an area just east of a Bloomington to Decatur line with
some low visibilities by morning. Still appears there may be enough
breaks in the cirrus to allow good radiational cooling overnight
and at least patchy fog by early morning, especially along and
north of the I-74 corridor. The current forecast reflects this
quite well so other than some minor tweaks to the hourly temps,
the rest of the forecast is in good shape. No evening ZFP update
will be needed at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
Main short-term forecast concern continues to be potential for fog
development tonight as high pressure slides overhead and winds go
light/variable. Several factors point to at least patchy fog,
including nearly calm winds after sunset and increasing boundary
layer moisture due to snow melt. However, the possible fly-in-the-
ointment will be increasing high clouds currently seen on visible
satellite imagery streaming from the Dakotas into Iowa.
All models suggest these clouds will spread into Illinois late
this afternoon then persist through much of the night. Whether
they will be thick enough to limit radiational cooling and prevent
widespread fog is still in question. Several models such as the
NAM and GFS indicate little or no restriction to visby tonight,
while the HRRR is showing fog developing from mid-evening through
the overnight hours. At this point, will mention patchy fog over the
snow cover, generally along/north of the I-74 corridor. Overnight
lows will be in the middle to upper 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
Upper level ridging will build into central IL Tuesday providing for
dry conditions with some mid and high cloud cover. The warming trend
will continue slowly with highs reaching the low to mid 40s I-74
northward where snow cover remains...to the low to mid 50s south of
I-70. Lows Tuesday night should drop to only the mid to upper 30s as
increased winds and cloud cover prevent further cooling at the
surface.
By Wednesday...this ridge will slip east of IL allowing increased
southerly flow and a plume of Gulf moisture to nudge eastward into
Illinois. The result will be a continued warming trend with highs
reaching around 50 north of I-74 to the upper 50s from I-70
southward. Chances for precipitation will be arriving in western
portions of the state by evening. 12Z models currently keep this
precipitation light until Thursday/Thanksgiving evening...then
spread heavier amounts around 0.50 inches per 6 hours across the
state from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Total rainfall
amounts look to be around 1 to 1.25 inches southeast of Champaign-
Decatur, and 1.5 to 1.75 inches to the northwest. Could see a mix of
light snow with the light rain over central IL Friday night before
ending. Highs Thursday should be in the mid 50s to around 60,
cooling to the low to mid 40s over the IL river valley to the mid to
upper 50s in southeast IL.
High pressure will build into the Midwest region on Saturday for a
good chance for dry conditions, although GFS is quicker returning
moisture back into central IL and perhaps some precipitation will
return Saturday night into Sunday if this turns out. Chance for
precipitation with this next system looks to linger through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
The main challenge this forecast period will be with the potential
for MVFR, or lower vsbys in fog later tonight into Tue morning.
With the very mild temperatures across the area this afternoon, a
good deal of snow was melted across the I-74 corridor and north
which may lead to some patchy fog overnight as winds become
quite light as a ridge of high pressure drifts over the area. The
one negative for widespread fog would be some high level clouds
tracking southeast out of Iowa, which should be in our area
tonight. Will continue to keep the vsbys in the MVFR range across
PIA, BMI and CMI and not have any restrictions in vsbys at SPI and
DEC. What fog we do see overnight should burn off quickly by 15z
Tuesday with VFR conditions prevailing for the rest of the day.
Light and variable winds tonight with become light east to
southeast on Tuesday at 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
516 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
Main short-term forecast concern continues to be potential for fog
development tonight as high pressure slides overhead and winds go
light/variable. Several factors point to at least patchy fog,
including nearly calm winds after sunset and increasing boundary
layer moisture due to snow melt. However, the possible fly-in-the-
ointment will be increasing high clouds currently seen on visible
satellite imagery streaming from the Dakotas into Iowa.
All models suggest these clouds will spread into Illinois late
this afternoon then persist through much of the night. Whether
they will be thick enough to limit radiational cooling and prevent
widespread fog is still in question. Several models such as the
NAM and GFS indicate little or no restriction to visby tonight,
while the HRRR is showing fog developing from mid-evening through
the overnight hours. At this point, will mention patchy fog over the
snow cover, generally along/north of the I-74 corridor. Overnight
lows will be in the middle to upper 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
Upper level ridging will build into central IL Tuesday providing for
dry conditions with some mid and high cloud cover. The warming trend
will continue slowly with highs reaching the low to mid 40s I-74
northward where snow cover remains...to the low to mid 50s south of
I-70. Lows Tuesday night should drop to only the mid to upper 30s as
increased winds and cloud cover prevent further cooling at the
surface.
By Wednesday...this ridge will slip east of IL allowing increased
southerly flow and a plume of Gulf moisture to nudge eastward into
Illinois. The result will be a continued warming trend with highs
reaching around 50 north of I-74 to the upper 50s from I-70
southward. Chances for precipitation will be arriving in western
portions of the state by evening. 12Z models currently keep this
precipitation light until Thursday/Thanksgiving evening...then
spread heavier amounts around 0.50 inches per 6 hours across the
state from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Total rainfall
amounts look to be around 1 to 1.25 inches southeast of Champaign-
Decatur, and 1.5 to 1.75 inches to the northwest. Could see a mix of
light snow with the light rain over central IL Friday night before
ending. Highs Thursday should be in the mid 50s to around 60,
cooling to the low to mid 40s over the IL river valley to the mid to
upper 50s in southeast IL.
High pressure will build into the Midwest region on Saturday for a
good chance for dry conditions, although GFS is quicker returning
moisture back into central IL and perhaps some precipitation will
return Saturday night into Sunday if this turns out. Chance for
precipitation with this next system looks to linger through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
The main challenge this forecast period will be with the potential
for MVFR, or lower vsbys in fog later tonight into Tue morning.
With the very mild temperatures across the area this afternoon, a
good deal of snow was melted across the I-74 corridor and north
which may lead to some patchy fog overnight as winds become
quite light as a ridge of high pressure drifts over the area. The
one negative for widespread fog would be some high level clouds
tracking southeast out of Iowa, which should be in our area
tonight. Will continue to keep the vsbys in the MVFR range across
PIA, BMI and CMI and not have any restrictions in vsbys at SPI and
DEC. What fog we do see overnight should burn off quickly by 15z
Tuesday with VFR conditions prevailing for the rest of the day.
Light and variable winds tonight with become light east to
southeast on Tuesday at 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1153 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
Short-wave trough embedded within broad northwesterly flow is
currently producing an area of mid-level clouds along/west of a
Chicago...to Peoria...to Columbia, Missouri line. These clouds
will spread eastward as the morning progresses. Have therefore
updated the sky grids to go with partly sunny wording across the
northern half of the KILX CWA. Have also adjusted hourly temps to
account for a faster diurnal temp rise across areas where little
or no snow is on the ground. Based on current temp trends and
expected arrival of mid-level cloud deck, have lowered afternoon
high temps by a degree or two along/north of I-74 where ample snow
cover exists. Highs will range from the upper 20s north of the
Peoria area...to the upper 30s around Jacksonville. Zone update
has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
A very chilly start is on tap today due to the new snowfall.
Traditional cold spots from Altona to Lacon will see below zero
temps around sunrise. A 1028mb surface high pressure center will
pass just southwest of IL this morning. The ridge axis will progress
east of IL by 18z/Noon, allowing for surface winds to become
southerly this afternoon. Typically that means slightly warmer high
temps, but the new snow cover will keep temps a tick below potential
due to insolation going into melting the snow instead of sensible
heating. A band of altocumulus clouds is projected to move across
our northern counties today as well, with moisture mainly in the 850-
700mb layer per RAP and HRRR soundings. So a combination of snow pack
and cloud cover will limit highs north of I-74 to at or just below
freezing today. Southern areas with snow less than an inch should
see the sun help to melt off what feel on Saturday. High temps south
and southwest of Lincoln to Mattoon should reach the mid to upper
30s under sunny skies.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
Surface high pressure ridge from eastern Texas into the Ohio river
valley at sunset will shift se into the Gulf Coast States Monday.
Meanwhile upper level trof over the OH/TN river valleys at sunset to
track east to the Atlantic Coast Monday morning, while another short
wave track northeast of central IL tonight into early Monday
morning. This feature may produce some mid level clouds over mainly
ne areas tonight and diminish by Monday morning. SSW winds 8-15 mph
to starts to modify temperatures. Lows tonight in the mid to upper
20s with some lower 20s over far northern CWA (Knox, Stark &
Marshall counties) where deeper snow pack of 6-10 inches is. Highs
Monday range from upper 30s to near 40F over northern CWA where snow
pack lingering while upper 40s SW CWA and into southeast IL.
Upper level ridge into IL Tue and into the eastern states Wed to
continue fair weather with temperatures continuing to modify. Lows
Monday night in the mid to upper 20s again with SW CWA near 30F. May
need to watch for patchy fog possibly developing over snow pack of
northern CWA later Monday night into early Tue morning as wind gets
lighter and have snow melt on Monday. Highs Tue range from lower 40s
from I-74 north to lower 50s sw CWA. Highs Wed around 50F northern
CWA and mid 50s sw CWA. Have slight chances of showers over the IL
river valley west of I-55 by Wed afternoon. Even milder highs Thu in
the upper 50s to around 60F.
Strong cutoff upper level low/trof digs over the Rockies during Wed
and Thu while surface low pressure to eject ne from the Texas
panhandle into the western great lakes Thu night and brings a cold
front east across IL in the Thu night to Fri time frame. 00Z models
still differ on timing of this front but generally show increasing
chances of showers from nw to se during Wed night and Thu with
likely pops Thu night into Friday. Rainfall amounts of 1-1.50 inches
during that time. Then cooler and drier weather follow late this
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period. A
weak disturbance will spread mid-level clouds across the area this
afternoon. 1730z satellite imagery shows the clouds with bases of
7000-9000ft along/west of the Illinois River. Satellite timing
tools and Rapid Refresh RH progs suggest they will arrive at KPIA
by 18z, then further east to KCMI by around 21z. The clouds will
clear from west to east late this afternoon into the evening, but
additional mid-level clouds further upstream across western Iowa
will arrive by mid to late evening. Winds will initially be from
the south at around 10kt this afternoon, then will veer to the
W/SW by Monday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
930 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
Short-wave trough embedded within broad northwesterly flow is
currently producing an area of mid-level clouds along/west of a
Chicago...to Peoria...to Columbia, Missouri line. These clouds
will spread eastward as the morning progresses. Have therefore
updated the sky grids to go with partly sunny wording across the
northern half of the KILX CWA. Have also adjusted hourly temps to
account for a faster diurnal temp rise across areas where little
or no snow is on the ground. Based on current temp trends and
expected arrival of mid-level cloud deck, have lowered afternoon
high temps by a degree or two along/north of I-74 where ample snow
cover exists. Highs will range from the upper 20s north of the
Peoria area...to the upper 30s around Jacksonville. Zone update
has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
A very chilly start is on tap today due to the new snowfall.
Traditional cold spots from Altona to Lacon will see below zero
temps around sunrise. A 1028mb surface high pressure center will
pass just southwest of IL this morning. The ridge axis will progress
east of IL by 18z/Noon, allowing for surface winds to become
southerly this afternoon. Typically that means slightly warmer high
temps, but the new snow cover will keep temps a tick below potential
due to insolation going into melting the snow instead of sensible
heating. A band of altocumulus clouds is projected to move across
our northern counties today as well, with moisture mainly in the 850-
700mb layer per RAP and HRRR soundings. So a combination of snow pack
and cloud cover will limit highs north of I-74 to at or just below
freezing today. Southern areas with snow less than an inch should
see the sun help to melt off what feel on Saturday. High temps south
and southwest of Lincoln to Mattoon should reach the mid to upper
30s under sunny skies.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
Surface high pressure ridge from eastern Texas into the Ohio river
valley at sunset will shift se into the Gulf Coast States Monday.
Meanwhile upper level trof over the OH/TN river valleys at sunset to
track east to the Atlantic Coast Monday morning, while another short
wave track northeast of central IL tonight into early Monday
morning. This feature may produce some mid level clouds over mainly
ne areas tonight and diminish by Monday morning. SSW winds 8-15 mph
to starts to modify temperatures. Lows tonight in the mid to upper
20s with some lower 20s over far northern CWA (Knox, Stark &
Marshall counties) where deeper snow pack of 6-10 inches is. Highs
Monday range from upper 30s to near 40F over northern CWA where snow
pack lingering while upper 40s SW CWA and into southeast IL.
Upper level ridge into IL Tue and into the eastern states Wed to
continue fair weather with temperatures continuing to modify. Lows
Monday night in the mid to upper 20s again with SW CWA near 30F. May
need to watch for patchy fog possibly developing over snow pack of
northern CWA later Monday night into early Tue morning as wind gets
lighter and have snow melt on Monday. Highs Tue range from lower 40s
from I-74 north to lower 50s sw CWA. Highs Wed around 50F northern
CWA and mid 50s sw CWA. Have slight chances of showers over the IL
river valley west of I-55 by Wed afternoon. Even milder highs Thu in
the upper 50s to around 60F.
Strong cutoff upper level low/trof digs over the Rockies during Wed
and Thu while surface low pressure to eject ne from the Texas
panhandle into the western great lakes Thu night and brings a cold
front east across IL in the Thu night to Fri time frame. 00Z models
still differ on timing of this front but generally show increasing
chances of showers from nw to se during Wed night and Thu with
likely pops Thu night into Friday. Rainfall amounts of 1-1.50 inches
during that time. Then cooler and drier weather follow late this
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, as high
pressure passes across IL today. A period of VFR mid-clouds are
poised to progress across the northern half of IL today, generally
in the 7k-10k FT layer. Winds will start out light westerly, then
become south-southwest as the surface ridge axis moves east of
Illinois. Wind speeds look to remain in the 10-13kt range from
this afternoon through the evening.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
536 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
A very chilly start is on tap today due to the new snowfall.
Traditional cold spots from Altona to Lacon will see below zero
temps around sunrise. A 1028mb surface high pressure center will
pass just southwest of IL this morning. The ridge axis will progress
east of IL by 18z/Noon, allowing for surface winds to become
southerly this afternoon. Typically that means slightly warmer high
temps, but the new snow cover will keep temps a tick below potential
due to insolation going into melting the snow instead of sensible
heating. A band of altocumulus clouds is projected to move across
our northern counties today as well, with moisture mainly in the 850-
700mb layer per RAP and HRRR soundings. So a combination of snow pack
and cloud cover will limit highs north of I-74 to at or just below
freezing today. Southern areas with snow less than an inch should
see the sun help to melt off what feel on Saturday. High temps south
and southwest of Lincoln to Mattoon should reach the mid to upper
30s under sunny skies.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
Surface high pressure ridge from eastern Texas into the Ohio river
valley at sunset will shift se into the Gulf Coast States Monday.
Meanwhile upper level trof over the OH/TN river valleys at sunset to
track east to the Atlantic Coast Monday morning, while another short
wave track northeast of central IL tonight into early Monday
morning. This feature may produce some mid level clouds over mainly
ne areas tonight and diminish by Monday morning. SSW winds 8-15 mph
to starts to modify temperatures. Lows tonight in the mid to upper
20s with some lower 20s over far northern CWA (Knox, Stark &
Marshall counties) where deeper snow pack of 6-10 inches is. Highs
Monday range from upper 30s to near 40F over northern CWA where snow
pack lingering while upper 40s SW CWA and into southeast IL.
Upper level ridge into IL Tue and into the eastern states Wed to
continue fair weather with temperatures continuing to modify. Lows
Monday night in the mid to upper 20s again with SW CWA near 30F. May
need to watch for patchy fog possibly developing over snow pack of
northern CWA later Monday night into early Tue morning as wind gets
lighter and have snow melt on Monday. Highs Tue range from lower 40s
from I-74 north to lower 50s sw CWA. Highs Wed around 50F northern
CWA and mid 50s sw CWA. Have slight chances of showers over the IL
river valley west of I-55 by Wed afternoon. Even milder highs Thu in
the upper 50s to around 60F.
Strong cutoff upper level low/trof digs over the Rockies during Wed
and Thu while surface low pressure to eject ne from the Texas
panhandle into the western great lakes Thu night and brings a cold
front east across IL in the Thu night to Fri time frame. 00Z models
still differ on timing of this front but generally show increasing
chances of showers from nw to se during Wed night and Thu with
likely pops Thu night into Friday. Rainfall amounts of 1-1.50 inches
during that time. Then cooler and drier weather follow late this
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, as high
pressure passes across IL today. A period of VFR mid-clouds are
poised to progress across the northern half of IL today, generally
in the 7k-10k FT layer. Winds will start out light westerly, then
become south-southwest as the surface ridge axis moves east of
Illinois. Wind speeds look to remain in the 10-13kt range from
this afternoon through the evening.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
A very chilly start is on tap today due to the new snowfall.
Traditional cold spots from Altona to Lacon will see below zero
temps around sunrise. A 1028mb surface high pressure center will
pass just southwest of IL this morning. The ridge axis will progress
east of IL by 18z/Noon, allowing for surface winds to become
southerly this afternoon. Typically that means slightly warmer high
temps, but the new snow cover will keep temps a tick below potential
due to insolation going into melting the snow instead of sensible
heating. A band of altocumulus clouds is projected to move across
our northern counties today as well, with moisture mainly in the 850-
700mb layer per RAP and HRRR soundings. So a combination of snow pack
and cloud cover will limit highs north of I-74 to at or just below
freezing today. Southern areas with snow less than an inch should
see the sun help to melt off what feel on Saturday. High temps south
and southwest of Lincoln to Mattoon should reach the mid to upper
30s under sunny skies.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
Surface high pressure ridge from eastern Texas into the Ohio river
valley at sunset will shift se into the Gulf Coast States Monday.
Meanwhile upper level trof over the OH/TN river valleys at sunset to
track east to the Atlantic Coast Monday morning, while another short
wave track northeast of central IL tonight into early Monday
morning. This feature may produce some mid level clouds over mainly
ne areas tonight and diminish by Monday morning. SSW winds 8-15 mph
to starts to modify temperatures. Lows tonight in the mid to upper
20s with some lower 20s over far northern CWA (Knox, Stark &
Marshall counties) where deeper snow pack of 6-10 inches is. Highs
Monday range from upper 30s to near 40F over northern CWA where snow
pack lingering while upper 40s SW CWA and into southeast IL.
Upper level ridge into IL Tue and into the eastern states Wed to
continue fair weather with temperatures continuing to modify. Lows
Monday night in the mid to upper 20s again with SW CWA near 30F. May
need to watch for patchy fog possibly developing over snow pack of
northern CWA later Monday night into early Tue morning as wind gets
lighter and have snow melt on Monday. Highs Tue range from lower 40s
from I-74 north to lower 50s sw CWA. Highs Wed around 50F northern
CWA and mid 50s sw CWA. Have slight chances of showers over the IL
river valley west of I-55 by Wed afternoon. Even milder highs Thu in
the upper 50s to around 60F.
Strong cutoff upper level low/trof digs over the Rockies during Wed
and Thu while surface low pressure to eject ne from the Texas
panhandle into the western great lakes Thu night and brings a cold
front east across IL in the Thu night to Fri time frame. 00Z models
still differ on timing of this front but generally show increasing
chances of showers from nw to se during Wed night and Thu with
likely pops Thu night into Friday. Rainfall amounts of 1-1.50 inches
during that time. Then cooler and drier weather follow late this
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015
VFR conditions are expected this forecast period. High pressure
will drift across the region through Sunday morning bringing very
cold conditions to the forecast area. A band of mid level clouds
over north central Iowa was tracking southeast and should be
tracking across west central Illinois after 10z and further east
after 13z. Bases of the clouds should range from 6000-9000 feet
into the afternoon hours but precip is not expected with this
weak upper level wave that will push across the forecast area
during the day. Westerly winds at 8 to 15 kts tonight will back
into a south to southwest direction on Sunday at 7 to 12 kts
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1236 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON TODAY AND A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY ALLOWING FOR SOME COASTAL RAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR EAST. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS
IN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL DATA. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS THE QPF/POP GRADIENT FOR TONIGHT
AND IF COLDER AIR CAN ARRIVE IN TIME FOR RAIN TO CHANGE OVER THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN SPOTS.
9 AM UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
LOCALIZED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS THROUGH ABOUT 1030 AM. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...BUT A FEW MESONET OBS ARE
BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES AS OF 9 AM. SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS
FALLING IN SPOTS. EVEN THOUGH ROADS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM...A FEW
SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 1030 AM.
PREVIOUSLY...
LATEST HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LIGHT STEADY PRECIP TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SNOW MAY
POSSIBLY MIX IN WITH THE PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES COOL WITH TIME.
PREV DISC...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTO CANADA
THIS MORNING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF
MAINE. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIPITATION BREAKING
OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL BE TRIGGERED FROM
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE DURING THE DAY.
00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN TO OUR EAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TO
SPILL THE RAINFALL BACK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM RUN TO RUN AND
THIS TREND CONTINUES. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A THIRD TO
A HALF INCH ALONG THE MIDCOAST REGION OF MAINE.
PTYPE...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS ALONG THE MIDCOAST AND
INLAND NORTH AND EAST OF THE AUGUSTA AND WATERVILLE CORRIDOR THAT
HAS A TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS AREA
WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
H8 LOW AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
THE SNOW WILL MAINLY STICK ACROSS ANY ELEVATED TERRAIN...AND AT
THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW. A FEW
COMMUNITIES MAY PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
HAZARDS: SOME SLICK DRIVING MONDAY MORNING EASTERN SECTIONS.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS WELL HOWEVER...NOT OVERLY WINDY WITH
GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 MPH. THERE MAY BE A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR THE PENOBSCOT RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
- COLD START TO THE FORECAST WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
- WARMUP STARTS WED WITH HIGHS REACHING MID TO UPPER 50S BY FRI
- COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS NEXT
WEEKEND
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND GFS/EURO ENSEMBLES ARE ACTUALLY
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. WE START THE PERIOD
ON TUESDAY WITH AN ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH
H500 ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE SAME IS
ALSO TRUE FOR T850. DUE TO THIS I DECIDED TO DROP LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND THE TROUGH IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. H500
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORKWEEK ARE 2 - 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL AND T850 OF 1 - 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE. THIS
WILL LIKELY MEAN THAT WE SEE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY
AND SHOULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. DECIDED TO GO
WITH A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR POP ON SATURDAY DUE TO SOME
MINOR VARIATIONS OF TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A SHARP
CONTRAST TO TEMPERATURES COME SUNDAY...WITH FORECASTED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LOW CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN NEAR THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS.
STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA WHERE GALE WATCHES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY SEE SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AND EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS
LATER MONDAY NIGHT....SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 5 TO 7FT RANGE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK A GRADIENT SHOULD
PERSIST AFTER THAT AND NO OTHER FLAGS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
906 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON TODAY AND A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY ALLOWING FOR SOME COASTAL RAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR EAST. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
LOCALIZED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS THROUGH ABOUT 1030 AM. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...BUT A FEW MESONET OBS ARE
BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES AS OF 9 AM. SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS
FALLING IN SPOTS. EVEN THOUGH ROADS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM...A FEW
SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 1030 AM.
PREVIOUSLY...
LATEST HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LIGHT STEADY PRECIP TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SNOW MAY
POSSIBLY MIX IN WITH THE PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES COOL WITH TIME.
PREV DISC...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTO CANADA
THIS MORNING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF
MAINE. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIPITATION BREAKING
OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL BE TRIGGERED FROM
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE DURING THE DAY.
00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN TO OUR EAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TO
SPILL THE RAINFALL BACK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM RUN TO RUN AND
THIS TREND CONTINUES. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A THIRD TO
A HALF INCH ALONG THE MIDCOAST REGION OF MAINE.
PTYPE...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS ALONG THE MIDCOAST AND
INLAND NORTH AND EAST OF THE AUGUSTA AND WATERVILLE CORRIDOR THAT
HAS A TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS AREA
WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
H8 LOW AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
THE SNOW WILL MAINLY STICK ACROSS ANY ELEVATED TERRAIN...AND AT
THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW. A FEW
COMMUNITIES MAY PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
HAZARDS: SOME SLICK DRIVING MONDAY MORNING EASTERN SECTIONS.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS WELL HOWEVER...NOT OVERLY WINDY WITH
GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 MPH. THERE MAY BE A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR THE PENOBSCOT RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
- COLD START TO THE FORECAST WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
- WARMUP STARTS WED WITH HIGHS REACHING MID TO UPPER 50S BY FRI
- COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS NEXT
WEEKEND
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND GFS/EURO ENSEMBLES ARE ACTUALLY
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. WE START THE PERIOD
ON TUESDAY WITH AN ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH
H500 ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE SAME IS
ALSO TRUE FOR T850. DUE TO THIS I DECIDED TO DROP LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND THE TROUGH IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. H500
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORKWEEK ARE 2 - 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL AND T850 OF 1 - 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE. THIS
WILL LIKELY MEAN THAT WE SEE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY
AND SHOULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. DECIDED TO GO
WITH A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR POP ON SATURDAY DUE TO SOME
MINOR VARIATIONS OF TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A SHARP
CONTRAST TO TEMPERATURES COME SUNDAY...WITH FORECASTED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LOW CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN NEAR THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS.
STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA WHERE GALE WATCHES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY SEE SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AND EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS
LATER MONDAY NIGHT....SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 5 TO 7FT RANGE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK A GRADIENT SHOULD
PERSIST AFTER THAT AND NO OTHER FLAGS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
704 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON TODAY AND A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY ALLOWING FOR SOME COASTAL RAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR EAST. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
POCKETS OF LIGHT SLEET WITH A FEW SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND 88D IMAGERY.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LIGHT STEADY PRECIP TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SNOW MAY
POSSIBLY MIX IN WITH THE PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES COOL WITH TIME.
PREV DISC...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTO CANADA
THIS MORNING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF
MAINE. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIPITATION BREAKING
OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL BE TRIGGERED FROM
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE DURING THE DAY.
00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN TO OUR EAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TO
SPILL THE RAINFALL BACK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM RUN TO RUN AND
THIS TREND CONTINUES. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A THIRD TO
A HALF INCH ALONG THE MIDCOAST REGION OF MAINE.
PTYPE...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS ALONG THE MIDCOAST AND
INLAND NORTH AND EAST OF THE AUGUSTA AND WATERVILLE CORRIDOR THAT
HAS A TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS AREA
WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
H8 LOW AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
THE SNOW WILL MAINLY STICK ACROSS ANY ELEVATED TERRAIN...AND AT
THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW. A FEW
COMMUNITIES MAY PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
HAZARDS: SOME SLICK DRIVING MONDAY MORNING EASTERN SECTIONS.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS WELL HOWEVER...NOT OVERLY WINDY WITH
GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 MPH. THERE MAY BE A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR THE PENOBSCOT RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
- COLD START TO THE FORECAST WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
- WARMUP STARTS WED WITH HIGHS REACHING MID TO UPPER 50S BY FRI
- COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS NEXT
WEEKEND
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND GFS/EURO ENSEMBLES ARE ACTUALLY
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. WE START THE PERIOD
ON TUESDAY WITH AN ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH
H500 ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE SAME IS
ALSO TRUE FOR T850. DUE TO THIS I DECIDED TO DROP LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND THE TROUGH IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. H500
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORKWEEK ARE 2 - 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL AND T850 OF 1 - 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE. THIS
WILL LIKELY MEAN THAT WE SEE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY
AND SHOULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. DECIDED TO GO
WITH A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR POP ON SATURDAY DUE TO SOME
MINOR VARIATIONS OF TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A SHARP
CONTRAST TO TEMPERATURES COME SUNDAY...WITH FORECASTED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LOW CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN NEAR THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS.
STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA WHERE GALE WATCHES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY SEE SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AND EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS
LATER MONDAY NIGHT....SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 5 TO 7FT RANGE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK A GRADIENT SHOULD
PERSIST AFTER THAT AND NO OTHER FLAGS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
250 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON TODAY AND A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY ALLOWING FOR SOME COASTAL RAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR EAST. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTO CANADA THIS
MORNING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF
MAINE. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIPITATION BREAKING
OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL BE TRIGGERED FROM
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE DURING THE DAY.
00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN TO OUR EAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TO
SPILL THE RAINFALL BACK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM RUN TO RUN AND
THIS TREND CONTINUES. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A THIRD TO
A HALF INCH ALONG THE MIDCOAST REGION OF MAINE.
PTYPE...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS ALONG THE MIDCOAST AND
INLAND NORTH AND EAST OF THE AUGUSTA AND WATERVILLE CORRIDOR THAT
HAS A TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS AREA
WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
H8 LOW AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
THE SNOW WILL MAINLY STICK ACROSS ANY ELEVATED TERRAIN...AND AT
THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW. A FEW
COMMUNITIES MAY PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
HAZARDS: SOME SLICK DRIVING MONDAY MORNING EASTERN SECTIONS.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS WELL HOWEVER...NOT OVERLY WINDY WITH
GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 MPH. THERE MAY BE A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR THE PENOBSCOT RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
- COLD START TO THE FORECAST WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
- WARMUP STARTS WED WITH HIGHS REACHING MID TO UPPER 50S BY FRI
- COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS NEXT
WEEKEND
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND GFS/EURO ENSEMBLES ARE ACTUALLY
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. WE START THE PERIOD
ON TUESDAY WITH AN ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH
H500 ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE SAME IS
ALSO TRUE FOR T850. DUE TO THIS I DECIDED TO DROP LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND THE TROUGH IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. H500
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORKWEEK ARE 2 - 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL AND T850 OF 1 - 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE. THIS
WILL LIKELY MEAN THAT WE SEE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY
AND SHOULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. DECIDED TO GO
WITH A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR POP ON SATURDAY DUE TO SOME
MINOR VARIATIONS OF TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A SHARP
CONTRAST TO TEMPERATURES COME SUNDAY...WITH FORECASTED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LOW CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN NEAR THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS.
STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA WHERE GALE WATCHES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY SEE SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AND EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS
LATER MONDAY NIGHT....SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 5 TO 7FT RANGE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK A GRADIENT SHOULD
PERSIST AFTER THAT AND NO OTHER FLAGS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...KISTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
603 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
BROAD NWRLY FLOW ALOFT FORMED BY A SLOWLY EXITING LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND BROAD...WEAK RIDGING IN THE WEST. OFF
THE BC COAST...A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SLIDING
EWD TO THE WEST COAST. LEAD SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY MOVING ONTO THE
CENTRAL CA COAST CURRENTLY PRODUCING BAROCLINIC LEAF OVER NV. CLOSER
TO HOME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SNOW FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC
NEB CONTINUING TO ERRODE SLOWLY AS TEMPS WARM QUICKLY UNDER MOSTLY
FULL SUNSHINE AND DESPITE LIGHT WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN
PORTIONS OF THE NC FCST AREA. NAM/SREF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT
SUGGESTING THIS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF TRAPPED COLD
AIR FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 600 FT. NAM HAS ISSUES WITH LOWER
LAYER IN AND NEAR SNOW COVER...BUT COULD STILL BE SUGGESTING A
REALISTIC POTENTIAL. SREF VSBY PROBS SHOW GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCED VSBY IN THE 06-12Z TUES TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE THE RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF. FROM AN OBSERVATIONAL PERSPECTIVE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT IN CONCERT WITH ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW
WOULD SUGGEST NAM COULD BE ON TO SOMETHING. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE FCST THOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MORE STRONGER WORDING
IF DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR.
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL PIVOT NEWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUES. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS WILL SERVE TO
KICK THE PREVIOUSLY DEVELOPED SFC TROUGH EWD DURING THE DAY
WHICH...BECAUSE OF DRY LOWER LEVELS...SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN A WIND
SHIFT FROM SERLY TO SRLY OR SWRLY BEHIND SFC TROUGH. WEAK LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL TEMPER HIGHS A BIT TMRW...BUT BY LATE IN THE DAY
SUBSIDENCE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED AND WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AGAIN. HAVE TRENDED FCST TWD THE HIGH END OF
THE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBILITIES AS A RESULT AND ALSO BECAUSE TEMPS
HAVE WARMED ABOVE EXPECTTED LEVELS THE LAST TWO DAYS. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HELD DOWN WHERE SNOW COVER STILL REMAINS IN NC NEB
AND ALSO IF CLOUDS DO FORM THEY WILL INHIBIT INSOLATION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FCST CONCERNS FOR
TUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT STRATUS
WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THAT WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARD CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT MAY CLIP THE VERY FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG INTO THE SRN ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME A LEAD WAVE WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. MAY NOT SEE THE HIGHER CLOUDS
HOWEVER...AS LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE/DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT.
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE FILTERING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE/SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE A FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUNDING...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOWEST LEVELS DRIER. WITH
CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT NOT SURE WE WILL SEE MUCH SNOW. MAY BE
MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THE LEAD WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
THANKSGIVING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DUSTING. NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER 20S FCST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH HOWEVER WILL GIVE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.
FOR THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...OPERATIONAL
MODELS EJECT THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING. FOR NOW
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. OTHERWISE CONTINUED COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
A COOL FRONT LIES FROM THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KVTN AFTER 24/09Z. STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS WILL
DISSIPATE LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1235 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
THE 08Z MSL ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. ANOTHER
WEAKER FRONT WAS INDICATED FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE JET FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. A
DEVELOPING CYCLONE COULD BE SEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEAR
41.5N/133.6W.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A BIT MORE WARMING THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...EVEN IN SNOW COVERED AREAS. WEST WINDS ARE
ALSO A BIT STRONGER WHICH THE RAP MODEL WAS BETTER AT IDENTIFYING
DUE TO BETTER MIXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE REST OF FCST
REMAINS AS IT WAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
THAT...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL GIVE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TO MOST OF NEBRASKA. IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THOUGH 5-10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FALLING TO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
A MILD AND DRY START TO THE WEEK IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES. VERY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH H850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ALL EYES WILL FOCUS ON THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW AS THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY DRAWS NEARER. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHEAR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OUT THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD NOT FAVOR
HEAVY OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WOULD FAVOR DRY SLOTTING. A NEW DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY BEING HELD BACK WITH A NEW UPPER LOW REFORMING THEN
HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS IS JUST
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
TEMPERATURE WISE...THE MILD START TO THE WEEK WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT
END AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTH THOUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S CAN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
WEAK SFC FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS SWD AS HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO FALL A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST LEADING TO A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRODUCED AS A
RESULT...BUT THAT IS IT WITH DRY LOWER LEVELS IN PLACE. SFC
PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOP AS THIS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS AND A WEAKENING
OF THE WESTERLIES BY MONDAY MORNING. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL
QUICKLY RETREAT NWD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THIS OCCURS...AND A
RETURN TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STOPPKOTTE
SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...STOPPKOTTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
645 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
150KT JET ALONG THE APPALACHIANS HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
RAIN BAND PARALLEL TO AND JUST EAST OF I-95...WITH SOME NOTABLE
ENHANCEMENT OWING TO FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UP TO HALF AN INCH AT GSB...ARE VERY
ISOLATED AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE
COLD FRONT ITSELF IS JUST NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD MARCH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
BAND OF PRECIP TO BREAK OUT NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN....AS THE HRRR SUGGEST. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE CONTINUED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE JET AND INCREASING DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE TN VALLEY. MOST OF THE LIFT WILL ACCORDING BE ALOFT...AND WITH
DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHTER. BECAUSE OF THIS...WE WILL HANG ONTO HIGHER
POPS A LITTLE LONGER FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF I-95....WITH RAIN
FINALLY COMING TO AN END BY 18Z.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER JET SLOWLY PULLS OUT. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RESPOND A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STRONGER
COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP
WILL HINDER HEATING MORE IN THE EAST. USING A BLEND OF HIRES AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN
VALLEY BUILDS EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE LIFTING UPPER TROUGH. LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT NEAT 1280M BY 12Z MONDAY...SUGGESTING
20S FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA. CHANCES FOR DECOUPLING AND EXTRA
COOLING WILL BE GREATEST IN THE WEST BUT LIKELY VERY LATE...SO WILL
STICK WITH LOWS CLOSE TO STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE MID 20S WEST TO
NEAR 30 EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY BENEATH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS
NEAR 1280M MONDAY MORNING CORRELATES TO CHILLY HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S UNDER FULL SUN. GIVEN MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT... MODELS SHOW A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CIRRUS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT INTO VA. HARD TO SAY IF THIS WOULD HAVE ANY
IMPACTS ON LOWS...WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S... AND SOME MID
20S FOR OUTLYING AREAS...UNDER OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY..
IN BRIEF QUASI-ZONAL MID-LATITUDE FLOW...A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS OFF
THE NORTH AND SOUTH COASTS OF CA THIS MORNING...ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
IN SOMEWHAT-PHASED FASHION EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US LATE TUE
THROUGH WED...AT WHICH TIME CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS APPEARS
PROBABLE. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT HIGH VALUES OF RH CENTERED AROUND 300 MB...IT IS OFTEN
TIMES DIFFICULT TO TRULY ASCERTAIN JUST HOW OPAQUE THE ASSOCIATED
CIRRUS WILL BE UNTIL ABOUT 24 HOURS OUT...WHEN THE UPSTREAM
SATELLITE PRESENTATION CAN BETTER CORROBORATE THOSE MOISTURE
FORECASTS. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES TUE NIGHT-WED...WHEN THE CIRRUS
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED...HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A FEW DEGREE
LOWER DIURNAL RANGE (IE. LOWS TUE NIGHT NUDGED UP AND HIGHS WED
NUDGED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO). THESE MAY NEED FURTHER MODIFICATION
ONCE IT BECOMES CLEARER HOW IMPACTFUL THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME.
OTHERWISE...THE TRANSITION TO A STRONG RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND A DEEP UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THAT TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN
THE WEEK...THEN STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY -BENEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG AND AMPLIFIED RIDING ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN US- TO NEAR 1050
MB INVOF NOVA SCOTIA BY THU MORNING. THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SPAN THE LENGTH OF THE EAST COAST...WILL THEN WEAKEN/BREAK DOWN
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG FRONTAL ZONE ACCOMPANYING THE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH ALOFT...WHICH NWP GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WILL CROSS NC
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL DISPLAY A WIDER THAN AVG RANGE
FROM EAST TO WEST OWING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR 925-850 MB
MOISTURE...IN ESE FLOW IN THAT LAYER...TO BANK AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS
AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/WESTERN PIEDMONT BY THU-FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...
WHILE A BAND OF RAIN EXITS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING...A COLD
FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MAKE IT WAY THROUGH THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR
ALREADY WORKING IN FROM THE WEST AND HELPING TO SCOUR EARLIER LOW
CLOUDS. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN HAS BEEN SLOWLY EXPANDING OVER GEORGIA
AND EASTERN SC...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN NC LATER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER..THE COMBINATION OF LIGHTER RAIN RATES AND DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN MVFR
AT MOST. THE CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IS GREATEST AT KFAY BETWEEN
14Z AND 17Z...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT KRWI. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT AND GUST TO NEAR 20 KT AT
TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC AFTER
18Z.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL COME NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
405 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION...LASTING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
150KT JET ALONG THE APPALACHIANS HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
RAIN BAND PARALLEL TO AND JUST EAST OF I-95...WITH SOME NOTABLE
ENHANCEMENT OWING TO FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UP TO HALF AN INCH AT GSB...ARE VERY
ISOLATED AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE
COLD FRONT ITSELF IS JUST NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD MARCH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
BAND OF PRECIP TO BREAK OUT NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN....AS THE HRRR SUGGEST. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE CONTINUED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE JET AND INCREASING DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE TN VALLEY. MOST OF THE LIFT WILL ACCORDING BE ALOFT...AND WITH
DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHTER. BECAUSE OF THIS...WE WILL HANG ONTO HIGHER
POPS A LITTLE LONGER FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF I-95....WITH RAIN
FINALLY COMING TO AN END BY 18Z.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER JET SLOWLY PULLS OUT. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RESPOND A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STRONGER
COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP
WILL HINDER HEATING MORE IN THE EAST. USING A BLEND OF HIRES AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN
VALLEY BUILDS EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE LIFTING UPPER TROUGH. LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT NEAT 1280M BY 12Z MONDAY...SUGGESTING
20S FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA. CHANCES FOR DECOUPLING AND EXTRA
COOLING WILL BE GREATEST IN THE WEST BUT LIKELY VERY LATE...SO WILL
STICK WITH LOWS CLOSE TO STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE MID 20S WEST TO
NEAR 30 EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY BENEATH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS
NEAR 1280M MONDAY MORNING CORRELATES TO CHILLY HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S UNDER FULL SUN. GIVEN MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT... MODELS SHOW A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CIRRUS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT INTO VA. HARD TO SAY IF THIS WOULD HAVE ANY
IMPACTS ON LOWS...WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S... AND SOME MID
20S FOR OUTLYING AREAS...UNDER OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY..
IN BRIEF QUASI-ZONAL MID-LATITUDE FLOW...A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS OFF
THE NORTH AND SOUTH COASTS OF CA THIS MORNING...ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
IN SOMEWHAT-PHASED FASHION EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US LATE TUE
THROUGH WED...AT WHICH TIME CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS APPEARS
PROBABLE. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT HIGH VALUES OF RH CENTERED AROUND 300 MB...IT IS OFTEN
TIMES DIFFICULT TO TRULY ASCERTAIN JUST HOW OPAQUE THE ASSOCIATED
CIRRUS WILL BE UNTIL ABOUT 24 HOURS OUT...WHEN THE UPSTREAM
SATELLITE PRESENTATION CAN BETTER CORROBORATE THOSE MOISTURE
FORECASTS. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES TUE NIGHT-WED...WHEN THE CIRRUS
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED...HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A FEW DEGREE
LOWER DIURNAL RANGE (IE. LOWS TUE NIGHTNUDGED UP AND HIGHS WED
NUDGED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO). THESE MAY NEED FURTHER MODIFICATION
ONCE IT BECOMES CLEARER HOW IMPACTFUL THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME.
OTHERWISE...THE TRANSITION TO A STRONG RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND A DEEP UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THAT TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN
THE WEEK...THEN STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY -BENEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG AND AMPLIFIED RIDING ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN US- TO NEAR 1050
MB INVOF NOVA SCOTIA BY THU MORNING. THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SPAN THE LENGTH OF THE EAST COAST...WILL THEN WEAKEN/BREAK DOWN
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG FRONTAL ZONE ACCOMPANYING THE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH ALOFT...WHICH NWP GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WILL CROSS NC
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL DISPLAY A WIDER THAN AVG RANGE
FROM EAST TO WEST OWING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR 925-850 MB
MOISTURE...IN ESE FLOW IN THAT LAYER...TO BANK AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS
AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/WESTERN PIEDMONT BY THU-FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AT KFAY...THOUGH A HEAVY
PATCH OR TWO OF RAIN CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBYS. RADAR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL STAY EAST OF KRDU...AND MAY EVEN
STAY EAST KRWI FOR THE MOST PART. THUS...ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE OF SHORTER DURATION AT THIS TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT JUST NOW MOVING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z. MVFR CEILINGS
HAVE DEVELOP IN THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...LIKELY BEING ERODED BY THE FRONT
AFTER 09Z. THIS SAME MOISTURE COULD ALSO CAUSE A SHORT PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS AT KRDU BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND DRIER
AIR BEGINS FILTER ACROSS THE AREA. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THE POSSIBILITY IF A ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
THAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN SC AND
NC...WHICH COULD EXTENDING THE BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS....WITH MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
355 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION...LASTING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
150KT JET ALONG THE APPALACHIANS HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
RAIN BAND PARALLEL TO AND JUST EAST OF I-95...WITH SOME NOTABLE
ENHANCEMENT OWING TO FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UP TO HALF AN INCH AT GSB...ARE VERY
ISOLATED AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE
COLD FRONT ITSELF IS JUST NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD MARCH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
BAND OF PRECIP TO BREAK OUT NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN....AS THE HRRR SUGGEST. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE CONTINUED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE JET AND INCREASING DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE TN VALLEY. MOST OF THE LIFT WILL ACCORDING BE ALOFT...AND WITH
DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHTER. BECAUSE OF THIS...WE WILL HANG ONTO HIGHER
POPS A LITTLE LONGER FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF I-95....WITH RAIN
FINALLY COMING TO AN END BY 18Z.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER JET SLOWLY PULLS OUT. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RESPOND A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STRONGER
COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP
WILL HINDER HEATING MORE IN THE EAST. USING A BLEND OF HIRES AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN
VALLEY BUILDS EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE LIFTING UPPER TROUGH. LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT NEAT 1280M BY 12Z MONDAY...SUGGESTING
20S FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA. CHANCES FOR DECOUPLING AND EXTRA
COOLING WILL BE GREATEST IN THE WEST BUT LIKELY VERY LATE...SO WILL
STICK WITH LOWS CLOSE TO STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE MID 20S WEST TO
NEAR 30 EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY BENEATH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS
NEAR 1280M MONDAY MORNING CORRELATES TO CHILLY HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S UNDER FULL SUN. GIVEN MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT... MODELS SHOW A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CIRRUS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT INTO VA. HARD TO SAY IF THIS WOULD HAVE ANY
IMPACTS ON LOWS...WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S... AND SOME MID
20S FOR OUTLYING AREAS...UNDER OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY..
THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE CONUS MID TO LATE WEEK... WITH STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA AND HOLDING ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY... BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE
INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL YIELD CONTINUED DRY WEATHER... BUT
CONTINUED SLOWLY MODIFYING/MOISTENING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND FROM THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE 60S BY
FRIDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND... WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE ON THURSDAY MORNING TO THE LOWER 40S
NW TO THE UPPER 40S SE ON FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN/SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND... ALLOWING A FRONT TO APPROACH/MOVE INTO THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AS TO WHEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC
AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE PRESENT. THUS... WILL STICK
CLOSE TO WPC`S TIMING/FORECAST... WITH LOW POPS AT THIS TIME GIVEN
CONFIDENCE FOR SATURDAY. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE
LOWER 60 NW TO UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AT KFAY...THOUGH A HEAVY
PATCH OR TWO OF RAIN CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBYS. RADAR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL STAY EAST OF KRDU...AND MAY EVEN
STAY EAST KRWI FOR THE MOST PART. THUS...ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE OF SHORTER DURATION AT THIS TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT JUST NOW MOVING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z. MVFR CEILINGS
HAVE DEVELOP IN THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...LIKELY BEING ERODED BY THE FRONT
AFTER 09Z. THIS SAME MOISTURE COULD ALSO CAUSE A SHORT PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS AT KRDU BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND DRIER
AIR BEGINS FILTER ACROSS THE AREA. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THE POSSIBILITY IF A ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
THAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN SC AND
NC...WHICH COULD EXTENDING THE BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS....WITH MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
944 PM EST MON NOV 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME AC IS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THE AC ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z NAM AND
LATEST RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPING/PUSHING DOWN INTO PRIMARILY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR
FA LATE TONIGHT SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS LATE.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH ON TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LIMITED CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL DROP OFF INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE WAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING. WE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER
60S.
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF
GIVEN THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LIKELY POPS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DRY FROM NW TO SE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF ARE AT STARK ODDS WITH EACH OTHER. GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH ENERGY PUSHING EAST INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WRN U.S. THAN THE
ECMWF. AGAIN...GIVEN BLOCKY NATURE OF THE FLOW PATTERN...PREFER THE
SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF/WPC FORECASTS. HAVE BROUGHT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SOUTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW PUSH FOR THE THREAT
OF PCPN INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER A LITTLE BIT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW MID CLOUDS PUSHING THRU FCST AREA. MAIN CONCERN IS POSSIBLE
STRATUS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
PUSHING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. NOT A CERTAINTY SO
CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED CLOUDS
AND LIGHT FOG EARLY MORNING. WILL BEEF UP CLOUDS A BIT IN THE
DAY/CMH AREA WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. RIDGE WILL SETTLE
IN WITH DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WINDS.
OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...PADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
849 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
.UPDATE...
OVERALL A VERY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ARE VERY TRICKY
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER OR LACK THERE OF. WE HAVE SOME
4-5KFT CLOUDS TO THE NORTH CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA.
THESE ARE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE AND SHOULD WORK EAST OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THEN WE
HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
SOME WAA AT THAT LEVEL. SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR OVER ALL BUT THE NRN
FORECAST AREA SO FAR THIS EVENING AND TEMPS HAVE RADIATED OUT
QUICKLY. MAY HAVE TO TRIM TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT WITH THE MELTED SNOW FROM EARLIER TODAY AND THE
MOISTURE IT RELEASED...WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO COME
ACROSS.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
IN THE KMSN AREA BETWEEN 09-14Z TUE DUE TO TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD COULD
DROP TO ZERO RESULTING IN SOME LOCALIZED FOG/LOW STRATUS FOR A
TIME. THIS ISN/T A SURE THING AND WON/T PUT IT IN THE TAF GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS
QUIET WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015/
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
PER WATER VAPOR/RAP LOOP BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO WI. SFC/850 RIDGE AXES DRAW CLOSER WITH TIME
WHICH RESULTS IN GRADUAL EROSION OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH SO
THINKING MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ACROSS NRN MN AND NRN WI
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA PLUS SOME OF THIS IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AS WELL. HOWEVER SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS ALONG WITH MET MOS ARE KEYING
ON SOME FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND THIS WOULD
MAKE THE MOST SENSE NEAR THE DEEPER SNOWFIELD ACROSS THE SRN CWA AND
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ARRIVING LIGHTER WIND REGIME ASSOC WITH RIDGE
AXIS. VSBL SATELLITE ANIMATION DOES SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE
SNOWPACK FROM THE EDGES AND SOME THINNING FROM WITHIN. LLVL RH
PROGS/GFS MOS AND RAP SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WITH MAINLY CIRRUS UPSTREAM NOTHING.
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN CWA AND BOOSTED SKY COVER A
BIT LATER IN THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. WITH LIGHT WIND REGIME EARLY WITH
SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXIS NEARBY ANY STRATUS/FOG EROSION MAY BE SLOW
UNTIL BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO
FURTHER MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ADDITIONAL EROSION IN SNOWCOVER AND 925 TEMPS INCHING
FURTHER ABOVE 0C ESP DURG THE AFTN WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP A
BIT MORE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD. ZONAL STEERING FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW AS LONG WAVE TROF
PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. NORTHERN PORTION OF TROF
BREAKS AWAY AND BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS WHILE
CUTOFF LOW LINGERS OVER WESTERN CONUS. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
TROF...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
PULL DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
COLUMN PWAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER 1 INCH BY THU AFTN...WHICH
WOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE RECORD PWAT FOR NORTHWEST IL PER
SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AND STILL IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL.
MAIN PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY TO BE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WHEN DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL JET SURGES INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA OF SRN WI/NRN IL AND ERN IA. IN ADDITION...RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET PASSES ACROSS THIS SAME AREA DURING
THE PERIOD. OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...GFS REMAINS OUTLIER WITH MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF WI. 18Z NAM...GEH-NH AND ECMWF REMAIN FOCUSED FARTHER
NORTH SO ALONG WITH WPC...WILL LEAN ON THIS CONCENSUS WHICH
INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SRN WI ON
THU/THU NIGHT.
STILL THINKING 1-1.5 INCHES MAY FALL IN A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD. BY
THAT TIME...THINKING THAT CURRENT SNOW COVER WILL BE CUT IN HALF DUE
TO GRADUAL MELTING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THREAT FOR THICKER FOG AND
RELEASE OF LATENT HEAT OF CONDENSATION BEGINS WED NGT SO EXPECT SNOW
COVER TO BEGIN DECREASING MORE RAPIDLY THEN. GROUND NOT FROZEN AND
REMAINING SNOW SHOULD ABSORB SOME OF THE INITIAL RAIN. HOWEVER WITH
LINGERING SNOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...WOULD EXPECT RAPID RESPONDING RIVERS TO RISE THU
NGT...INCLUDING THE FOX AND PECATONICA RIVERS. THE ROCK RIVER WILL
ALSO LIKELY RESPOND BUT MORE SLOWLY IN ROCKCOUNTY. DUE TO THIS
THREAT...WL UPDATE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK STATEMENT.
EXTENDED PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM TRENDING TO LOW.
WITH LARGE SCALE TROF SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS SRN WI AND THE
ADJOINING REGION...WL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY GFS OUTLIER WITH FASTER SOUTHEAST PROGRESS OF SFC FRONT
AND TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD HAVE GREATER
IMPACT ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY OF THE RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS ON
FRIDAY. BOTH ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOWING SLIGHTLY FASTER EWD
PROGRESSION AS WELL SO WL CONTINUE TO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR MIX OR
CHANGEOVER FROM WEST TO EAST 06Z-18Z FRI BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCEMENT ON FRIDAY AS COLD AIR
SETTLES IN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ANTICIPATED TO BE MORE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WHILE DEEPER LOW LEVEL RH IS IN THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS
DO VEER MORE NORTHEAST LATE FRI AND FRI NGT...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE VERY LIMITED AT THIS TIME...AND WIND SPEEDS RAPIDLY
DIMINISH.
925H TEMPS FALL 10 TO 15C BY 00Z/SAT AND THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER SRN WI THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST DAYS OF DEC AS SHORT WAVE RIDGEING AND QUIETER CONDITIONS
AFFECT WISCONSIN. LATEST GFS MORE AGRESSIVE ON STRONGER PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN GTLAKES ON MONDAY. ECMWF DOES SHOW
THIS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE BUT WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WPC MEDIUM RANGE DESK TRENDING AWAY FROM DETERMINISTIC GFS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LEANING MORE ON DRIER ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE.
HENCE WL KEEP POPS LOW FOR THE MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRONOUNCED DRYING UPSTREAM PER VSBL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY
ARISES LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROG
SHOWING SOME HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN SRN WI
AS IS THE NAM MOS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND VSBL IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME MELTING HAS OCCURRED TODAY SO AS RIDGE AXIS DRAWS CLOSER
SOME FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DEEPER SNOWCOVER IN FAR SRN WI.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1103 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
Weak high pressure centered over Iowa southeast thru central
Illinois will drift to the east of the area by Tuesday morning.
Satellite data indicates quite a bit of high level clouds
streaming in from Iowa early this evening with quite a bit of
high and mid level clouds seen further northwest to the Dakotas.
Quite a bit of moisture added to the boundary layer today from
the melting that occurred with the mild temperatures. Main
question overnight is what affect the band of cirrus has, if any,
on the potential for fog development as winds will be quite
light under the surface ridge axis.
What would otherwise be an excellent setup for fog is still in
question this hour as forecast soundings off the RAP were not
nearly as aggressive with the fog threat as the HRRR which
highlights an area just east of a Bloomington to Decatur line with
some low visibilities by morning. Still appears there may be enough
breaks in the cirrus to allow good radiational cooling overnight
and at least patchy fog by early morning, especially along and
north of the I-74 corridor. The current forecast reflects this
quite well so other than some minor tweaks to the hourly temps,
the rest of the forecast is in good shape. No evening ZFP update
will be needed at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
Main short-term forecast concern continues to be potential for fog
development tonight as high pressure slides overhead and winds go
light/variable. Several factors point to at least patchy fog,
including nearly calm winds after sunset and increasing boundary
layer moisture due to snow melt. However, the possible fly-in-the-
ointment will be increasing high clouds currently seen on visible
satellite imagery streaming from the Dakotas into Iowa.
All models suggest these clouds will spread into Illinois late
this afternoon then persist through much of the night. Whether
they will be thick enough to limit radiational cooling and prevent
widespread fog is still in question. Several models such as the
NAM and GFS indicate little or no restriction to visby tonight,
while the HRRR is showing fog developing from mid-evening through
the overnight hours. At this point, will mention patchy fog over the
snow cover, generally along/north of the I-74 corridor. Overnight
lows will be in the middle to upper 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
Upper level ridging will build into central IL Tuesday providing for
dry conditions with some mid and high cloud cover. The warming trend
will continue slowly with highs reaching the low to mid 40s I-74
northward where snow cover remains...to the low to mid 50s south of
I-70. Lows Tuesday night should drop to only the mid to upper 30s as
increased winds and cloud cover prevent further cooling at the
surface.
By Wednesday...this ridge will slip east of IL allowing increased
southerly flow and a plume of Gulf moisture to nudge eastward into
Illinois. The result will be a continued warming trend with highs
reaching around 50 north of I-74 to the upper 50s from I-70
southward. Chances for precipitation will be arriving in western
portions of the state by evening. 12Z models currently keep this
precipitation light until Thursday/Thanksgiving evening...then
spread heavier amounts around 0.50 inches per 6 hours across the
state from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Total rainfall
amounts look to be around 1 to 1.25 inches southeast of Champaign-
Decatur, and 1.5 to 1.75 inches to the northwest. Could see a mix of
light snow with the light rain over central IL Friday night before
ending. Highs Thursday should be in the mid 50s to around 60,
cooling to the low to mid 40s over the IL river valley to the mid to
upper 50s in southeast IL.
High pressure will build into the Midwest region on Saturday for a
good chance for dry conditions, although GFS is quicker returning
moisture back into central IL and perhaps some precipitation will
return Saturday night into Sunday if this turns out. Chance for
precipitation with this next system looks to linger through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
Coverage of fog the main challenge, especially where there was
significant snow melt today, mainly at the PIA, BMI and CMI
TAF sites. Still seeing quite a bit of mid and high level cloud
cover moving across the area late this evening and that is
expected to continue overnight. That may effectively keep any
widespread fog from forming early Tuesday morning but will hold
with the MVFR vsbys at our 3 northern TAF sites. Any fog that does
develop should dissipate by 15z Tuesday with VFR conditions
expected into Tuesday evening. Light and variable surface winds
tonight will become southeast at 10 to 15 kts by mid to late Tue
morning and continue that way into the afternoon hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
408 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDING A WARMING TREND. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S... WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
COMBINATION OF SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS SW CANADA AND UPR LOW DIGGING SE
INTO THE PAC NW WILL STRENGTHEN RIDGE ALOFT MOVG INTO THE GRTLKS AND
PROVIDE FAIR WX ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL GET EARLY THIS MORNING AND HOW LONG IT
WILL PERSIST. DENSE FOG CONFINED TO RURAL AREAS ATTM AND VSBYS AT
THOSE AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN SO SUSPECT THE FOG IS
RATHER SHALLOW. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AND HANDLE WITH AN SPS. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES/HEAVY
FROST ASSOCIATED WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY ALSO LEAD TO
SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS. THE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK BUT
EXPECT IT TO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. LATEST HRRR IS FCSTG LOW
VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY BUT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN
THIS REGARD... SO HAVE MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY FCST FOR THIS AFTN
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE U30S/L40S. SFC GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PREVENT
OR AT LEAST LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES... LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE U20S/L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP FOR MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WELL
INTO THE 50S DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL ON TARGET TO SINK ESE THROUGH
THE FORECAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FOCUS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
TROUGH TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH
POPS/MODERATE QPF WARRANTED GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN PRE-
FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. COOLER/DRIER AIR THEN FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
00Z ECMWF/GFS TRENDED TOWARD LESS LEFTOVER BLOCKING/CONFLUENCE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY ALLOWING
WAA RAIN TO OVERSPREAD BY SUNDAY IN RENEWED SW FLOW. THIS PCPN WOULD
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE/WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF A LARGE/CUT-OFF WESTERN CONUS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY.
BUMPED UP POPS ACCORDINGLY AND INCREASED MIN TEMPS FROM 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS/INIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 1216 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG FORMING OVER FAR NRN INDIANA/SRN MI EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALSO SOME STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE LAKE.
EXPECT SOME EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS
MOVG INTO NRN IL SHOULD REACH NRN INDIANA BEFORE DAYBREAK...
LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONTD FCST OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPO IFR VSBY AT SBN
BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. WK MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
404 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDING A WARMING TREND. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S... WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
COMBINATION OF SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS SW CANADA AND UPR LOW DIGGING SE
INTO THE PAC NW WILL STRENGTHEN RIDGE ALOFT MOVG INTO THE GRTLKS AND
PROVIDE FAIR WX ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL GET EARLY THIS MORNING AND HOW LONG IT
WILL PERSIST. DENSE FOG CONFINED TO RURAL AREAS ATTM AND VSBYS AT
THOSE AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN SO SUSPECT THE FOG IS
RATHER SHALLOW. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AND HANDLE WITH AN SPS. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES/HEAVY
FROST ASSOCIATED WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY ALSO LEAD TO
SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS. THE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK BUT
EXPECT IT TO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. LATEST HRRR IS FCSTG LOW
VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY BUT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN
THIS REGARD... SO HAVE MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY FCST FOR THIS AFTN
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE U30S/L40S. SFC GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PREVENT
OR AT LEAST LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES... LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE U20S/L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP FOR MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WELL
INTO THE 50S DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL ON TARGET TO SINK ESE THROUGH
THE FORECAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FOCUS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
TROUGH TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH
POPS/MODERATE QPF WARRANTED GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN PRE-
FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. COOLER/DRIER AIR THEN FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
00Z ECMWF/GFS TRENDED TOWARD LESS LEFTOVER BLOCKING/CONFLUENCE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING WAA RAIN TO OVERSPREAD BY SUNDAY IN RENEWED SW FLOW. THIS
PCPN (MOST LIKELY RAIN) WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD
SHORTWAVE/WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE/CUT-OFF
WESTERN CONUS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. BUMPED UP POPS ACCORDINGLY
AND INCREASED MIN TEMPS FROM 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS/INIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 1216 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG FORMING OVER FAR NRN INDIANA/SRN MI EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALSO SOME STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE LAKE.
EXPECT SOME EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS
MOVG INTO NRN IL SHOULD REACH NRN INDIANA BEFORE DAYBREAK...
LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONTD FCST OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPO IFR VSBY AT SBN
BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. WK MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1138 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
BROAD NWRLY FLOW ALOFT FORMED BY A SLOWLY EXITING LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND BROAD...WEAK RIDGING IN THE WEST. OFF
THE BC COAST...A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SLIDING
EWD TO THE WEST COAST. LEAD SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY MOVING ONTO THE
CENTRAL CA COAST CURRENTLY PRODUCING BAROCLINIC LEAF OVER NV. CLOSER
TO HOME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SNOW FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC
NEB CONTINUING TO ERODE SLOWLY AS TEMPS WARM QUICKLY UNDER MOSTLY
FULL SUNSHINE AND DESPITE LIGHT WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN
PORTIONS OF THE NC FCST AREA. NAM/SREF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT
SUGGESTING THIS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF TRAPPED COLD
AIR FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 600 FT. NAM HAS ISSUES WITH LOWER
LAYER IN AND NEAR SNOW COVER...BUT COULD STILL BE SUGGESTING A
REALISTIC POTENTIAL. SREF VSBY PROBS SHOW GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCED VSBY IN THE 06-12Z TUES TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE THE RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF. FROM AN OBSERVATIONAL PERSPECTIVE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT IN CONCERT WITH ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW
WOULD SUGGEST NAM COULD BE ON TO SOMETHING. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE FCST THOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MORE STRONGER WORDING
IF DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR.
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL PIVOT NEWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUES. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS WILL SERVE TO
KICK THE PREVIOUSLY DEVELOPED SFC TROUGH EWD DURING THE DAY
WHICH...BECAUSE OF DRY LOWER LEVELS...SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN A WIND
SHIFT FROM SERLY TO SRLY OR SWRLY BEHIND SFC TROUGH. WEAK LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL TEMPER HIGHS A BIT TMRW...BUT BY LATE IN THE DAY
SUBSIDENCE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED AND WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AGAIN. HAVE TRENDED FCST TWD THE HIGH END OF
THE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBILITIES AS A RESULT AND ALSO BECAUSE TEMPS
HAVE WARMED ABOVE EXPECTED LEVELS THE LAST TWO DAYS. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HELD DOWN WHERE SNOW COVER STILL REMAINS IN NC NEB
AND ALSO IF CLOUDS DO FORM THEY WILL INHIBIT INSOLATION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FCST CONCERNS FOR
TUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT STRATUS
WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THAT WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARD CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT MAY CLIP THE VERY FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG INTO THE SRN ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME A LEAD WAVE WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. MAY NOT SEE THE HIGHER CLOUDS
HOWEVER...AS LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE/DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT.
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE FILTERING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE/SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE A FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUNDING...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOWEST LEVELS DRIER. WITH
CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT NOT SURE WE WILL SEE MUCH SNOW. MAY BE
MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THE LEAD WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
THANKSGIVING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DUSTING. NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER 20S FCST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH HOWEVER WILL GIVE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.
FOR THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...OPERATIONAL
MODELS EJECT THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING. FOR NOW
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. OTHERWISE CONTINUED COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015
SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FROM KVTN TO KONL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL OCCUR AT KVTN AND
HAVE REMOVED FROM THE TAF WITH VISUAL FLIGHT RULES AT KVTN AND
KLBF THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
115 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME AC IS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THE AC ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z NAM AND
LATEST RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPING/PUSHING DOWN INTO PRIMARILY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR
FA LATE TONIGHT SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS LATE.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH ON TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LIMITED CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL DROP OFF INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE WAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING. WE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER
60S.
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF
GIVEN THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LIKELY POPS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DRY FROM NW TO SE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF ARE AT STARK ODDS WITH EACH OTHER. GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH ENERGY PUSHING EAST INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WRN U.S. THAN THE
ECMWF. AGAIN...GIVEN BLOCKY NATURE OF THE FLOW PATTERN...PREFER THE
SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF/WPC FORECASTS. HAVE BROUGHT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SOUTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW PUSH FOR THE THREAT
OF PCPN INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER A LITTLE BIT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN NW FLOW PATTERN WEAK SFC WAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. WEAK FRONT TO DROP SE INTO OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING AND
DISSIPATE. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SRN EXTENT. FOLLOWING THIS TREND HAVE
KEPT TAFS VFR...ONLY ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO ESTABLISH OVER THE
REGION WITH ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.
SW WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY WILL BACK TO THE SE AT
5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
332 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNINGS HAVE DROPPED A BIT MORE THAN FORECAST DUE TO THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS AS THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA WILL START THE DAY OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS...AMPLE SUPPLY OF INSOLATION AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EXPECT A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THE TYPE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT IS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. DUE TO THIS...LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE A
WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON
THANKSGIVING WILL CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE TN
VALLEY.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE FRIDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU LATER IN THE
DAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE FRONT SLOWS AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST HANGS TOUGH. THE FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES EAST MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. THE RIDGE
ALONG THE EAST COAST FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
WARM FRIDAY IN THE 60S AND THEN COOL BACK TO THE 50S SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 36 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 32 58 39 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 56 33 57 38 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 29 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
633 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDING A WARMING TREND. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S... WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
REPORTS FROM ASOS/AWOS SITES IN OUR CWA SUGGESTS DENSE FOG
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS ISSUED A
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 900AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FOG AND
POTENTIAL ICY SPOTS DUE TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
COMBINATION OF SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS SW CANADA AND UPR LOW DIGGING SE
INTO THE PAC NW WILL STRENGTHEN RIDGE ALOFT MOVG INTO THE GRTLKS AND
PROVIDE FAIR WX ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL GET EARLY THIS MORNING AND HOW LONG IT
WILL PERSIST. DENSE FOG CONFINED TO RURAL AREAS ATTM AND VSBYS AT
THOSE AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN SO SUSPECT THE FOG IS
RATHER SHALLOW. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AND HANDLE WITH AN SPS. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES/HEAVY
FROST ASSOCIATED WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY ALSO LEAD TO
SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS. THE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK BUT
EXPECT IT TO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. LATEST HRRR IS FCSTG LOW
VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY BUT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN
THIS REGARD... SO HAVE MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY FCST FOR THIS AFTN
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE U30S/L40S. SFC GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PREVENT
OR AT LEAST LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES... LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE U20S/L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP FOR MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WELL
INTO THE 50S DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL ON TARGET TO SINK ESE THROUGH
THE FORECAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FOCUS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
TROUGH TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH
POPS/MODERATE QPF WARRANTED GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN PRE-
FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. COOLER/DRIER AIR THEN FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
00Z ECMWF/GFS TRENDED TOWARD LESS LEFTOVER BLOCKING/CONFLUENCE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY ALLOWING
WAA RAIN TO OVERSPREAD BY SUNDAY IN RENEWED SW FLOW. THIS PCPN WOULD
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE/WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF A LARGE/CUT-OFF WESTERN CONUS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY.
BUMPED UP POPS ACCORDINGLY AND INCREASED MIN TEMPS FROM 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS/INIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
FOG WAS CAUSING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A SLOW MIX OUT DUE TO WK WIND FIELDS AND SNOW
COVER TODAY WITH CONDITIONS PRBLY NOT BECOMING VFR UNTIL MIDDAY.
SELY WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER TONIGHT BUT WITH MELTING SNOW
ADDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC BASED INVERSION STRENGTHENING
DUE TO WAA ALOFT... EXPECT VSBYS WILL FALL TO AT LEAST MVFR BY
WED MORNING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ005>009-012>017-020-022>025-032.
MI...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ079>081.
OH...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1243 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BE SLIDING UP TO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER INTO TOMORROW MORNING. FOG IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER
50S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S IN THE NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
COMBINATION OF SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS SW CANADA AND UPR LOW DIGGING SE
INTO THE PAC NW WILL STRENGTHEN RIDGE ALOFT MOVG INTO THE GRTLKS AND
PROVIDE FAIR WX ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL GET EARLY THIS MORNING AND HOW LONG IT
WILL PERSIST. DENSE FOG CONFINED TO RURAL AREAS ATTM AND VSBYS AT
THOSE AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN SO SUSPECT THE FOG IS
RATHER SHALLOW. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AND HANDLE WITH AN SPS. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES/HEAVY
FROST ASSOCIATED WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY ALSO LEAD TO
SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS. THE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK BUT
EXPECT IT TO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. LATEST HRRR IS FCSTG LOW
VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY BUT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN
THIS REGARD... SO HAVE MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY FCST FOR THIS AFTN
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE U30S/L40S. SFC GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PREVENT
OR AT LEAST LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES... LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE U20S/L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP FOR MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WELL
INTO THE 50S DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL ON TARGET TO SINK ESE THROUGH
THE FORECAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FOCUS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
TROUGH TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH
POPS/MODERATE QPF WARRANTED GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN PRE-
FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. COOLER/DRIER AIR THEN FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
00Z ECMWF/GFS TRENDED TOWARD LESS LEFTOVER BLOCKING/CONFLUENCE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY ALLOWING
WAA RAIN TO OVERSPREAD BY SUNDAY IN RENEWED SW FLOW. THIS PCPN WOULD
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE/WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF A LARGE/CUT-OFF WESTERN CONUS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY.
BUMPED UP POPS ACCORDINGLY AND INCREASED MIN TEMPS FROM 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS/INIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
CONDITIONS STEADILY IMPROVING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS. OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBN SHOWS LIFR VISBYS RAPIDLY
IMPROVING AND CIGS CLEARING OUT...SO EXPECT AN HOUR OR TWO OF IFR
VISBYS BEFORE MVFR PREVAILS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER DROP
OF VISBYS POSSIBLE AROUND 00Z...WITH IFR VISBYS RETURNING TO KSBN.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE LOW IN THIS SCENARIO AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ON IFR IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AFTER 09Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE LAST HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...NG
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1134 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BE SLIDING UP TO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER INTO TOMORROW MORNING. FOG IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER
50S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S IN THE NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
REPORTS FROM ASOS/AWOS SITES IN OUR CWA SUGGESTS DENSE FOG
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS ISSUED A
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 900AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FOG AND
POTENTIAL ICY SPOTS DUE TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
COMBINATION OF SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS SW CANADA AND UPR LOW DIGGING SE
INTO THE PAC NW WILL STRENGTHEN RIDGE ALOFT MOVG INTO THE GRTLKS AND
PROVIDE FAIR WX ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL GET EARLY THIS MORNING AND HOW LONG IT
WILL PERSIST. DENSE FOG CONFINED TO RURAL AREAS ATTM AND VSBYS AT
THOSE AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN SO SUSPECT THE FOG IS
RATHER SHALLOW. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AND HANDLE WITH AN SPS. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES/HEAVY
FROST ASSOCIATED WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY ALSO LEAD TO
SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS. THE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK BUT
EXPECT IT TO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. LATEST HRRR IS FCSTG LOW
VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY BUT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN
THIS REGARD... SO HAVE MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY FCST FOR THIS AFTN
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE U30S/L40S. SFC GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PREVENT
OR AT LEAST LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES... LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE U20S/L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP FOR MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WELL
INTO THE 50S DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL ON TARGET TO SINK ESE THROUGH
THE FORECAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FOCUS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
TROUGH TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH
POPS/MODERATE QPF WARRANTED GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN PRE-
FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. COOLER/DRIER AIR THEN FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
00Z ECMWF/GFS TRENDED TOWARD LESS LEFTOVER BLOCKING/CONFLUENCE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY ALLOWING
WAA RAIN TO OVERSPREAD BY SUNDAY IN RENEWED SW FLOW. THIS PCPN WOULD
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE/WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF A LARGE/CUT-OFF WESTERN CONUS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY.
BUMPED UP POPS ACCORDINGLY AND INCREASED MIN TEMPS FROM 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS/INIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
FOG WAS CAUSING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A SLOW MIX OUT DUE TO WK WIND FIELDS AND SNOW
COVER TODAY WITH CONDITIONS PRBLY NOT BECOMING VFR UNTIL MIDDAY.
SELY WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER TONIGHT BUT WITH MELTING SNOW
ADDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC BASED INVERSION STRENGTHENING
DUE TO WAA ALOFT... EXPECT VSBYS WILL FALL TO AT LEAST MVFR BY
WED MORNING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR RDG OVER
THE PLAINS EXPANDING INTO THE GREAT LKS. 00Z-12Z H5 HGT RISES OVER
MUCH OF THE W HALF OF THE GREAT LKS WERE AOA 100M AND AS MUCH AS
130M AT APX AND DTX. THE 12Z INL/GRB/APX RAOBS SHOW SHARP SUBSIDENCE
INVRN IN THE H8-85 LYR. DESPITE TEMPS AT THIS ELEVATED INVRN BASE AS
LO AS -10C...RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE SUB INVRN LYR AS DEPICTED ON
THE INL AND GRB RAOBS HAS GREATLY RESTRICTED LES EVEN OVER THE E...
WHERE THE LLVL NW FLOW WAS WEAKLY CYC THIS MRNG AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
RDG AXIS OVER THE WRN CWA EXTENDING TO THE N OF STRONGER HI CENTER
IN THE TN RIVER VALLEY. THE LO CLDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG OVER THE W AND SCENTRAL. EVEN WHERE THE LO
CLDS HAVE DSPTD...A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID/UPR LVL MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONGER WAA IN THE NRN PLAINS IS SUPPORTING AREA OF MID/HI CLDS
SPILLING OVER THE RDG INTO THE WRN LKS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE IMPACT OF
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW THAT IS FCST TO DEVELOP TNGT/WED BETWEEN SFC
HI PRES RDG FCST TO MOVE E/BUILD UNDER THE EXPANDING UPR RDG AND
FALLING MSLP IN THE PLAINS TO THE E OF A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE W.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES SHIFTING E INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC STATES
IS FCST TO BUILD TO ABOUT 1040MB BY 12Z WED. IN CONCERT WITH DVLPG
LO PRES TROF ALONG THE BORDER BTWN MN AND THE DAKOTAS...THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS IS FCST TO TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY...
WITH S H925 WINDS INCRSG UP TO 35-40KTS ACCENTUATED BY DVLPG PRES
FALL CENTER OVER NW ONTARIO. MODELS SHOW AN AXIS OF HIER RH IN THE
SFC-H9 LYR RETURNING INTO THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNGT WITHIN THIS
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AND UNDER LINGERING LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
INVRN. WITH AN UPSOPE LLVL SSE FLOW... MAINTAINED SOME FCST -DZ/
-FZDZ IN THIS AREA. LIMITED DEPTH OF RETURNING MOIST LYR AND/OR
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WL RESULT IN A DRY FCST FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. LO
TEMPS MAY BE TRICKY TNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. IF THE LO CLDS
LINGERING THERE DSPT THIS EVNG WITH THE PASSING OF THE SFC HI/MORE
ACYC FLOW BEFORE THE SLY FLOW PICKS UP...TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY
BEFORE WINDS PICK UP OVERNGT. SUSPECT THE LO CLDS WL BE RESILIENT
ENUF AND INCOMING MID/HI CLDS WL LIMIT THIS EVNG TEMP DROP...SO DID
NOT GO TOO LO WITH FCST MIN TEMPS. INCRSG S WINDS/MORE CLDS WL
LIKELY BRING RISING TEMPS OVERNGT.
WED...STEADY/GUSTY S SLOWLY VEERING SW LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO SLOWLY
INCRS MSTR DEPTH THRU THE DAY. IN CONCERT WITH SOME WEAK DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RA OR DZ. BUT GENERAL DRYNESS OF
THE FCST AIRMASS IN THE MID LVLS/DGZ AND ONLY WEAK FORCING SUGGESTS
ANY PCPN WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE. SO MODEL QPF IS RATHER LGT AND
SPOTTY AND FOCUSED MAINLY AWAY FM THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
ALTHOUGH THE CLDS WL HOLD DOWN MAX TEMPS...READINGS NOT FAR FM 40 WL
STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
BY 00Z THURSDAY THE INITIAL N END OF THE ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL
BE SET UP FROM N ONTARIO THROUGH THE W HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXTENDING IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH KS TO
THE S LOW OVER NE NM. THE NAM IS HINTING AT SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE
PRECIP ACROSS THE N CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM BIG BAY
THROUGH NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING TO GWINN WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE N END OF THE BROAD 500MBTROUGH STRETCHING FROM N CENTRAL CANADA
DOWN TO THE MAIN LOW MOVING ON SHORE IN OR/N CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP A CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE W THIRD OF THE NATION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP TO THE E HALF OF UPPER MI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AS THE N END OF THE 500MB TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS
MANITOBA TO E MT. WILL KEEP THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
GOING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
BETTER MOISTURE SNEAKS IN. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
THE LARGEST THREAT PERIOD FOR MAINLY CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF SLEEP S CENTRAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE
DOORSTEP...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW W THURSDAY MORNING AND HOLDING
OFF FAR E UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE STILL
MORE ROBUST ON THE W PRECIP PUSH. THE OVERALL PICTURE IS
SIMILAR...MAKING THE FCST TRICKY. THE 12Z ECMWF DID COME IN WITH A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP THOUGH OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI...IN SOME PLACES
CLOSE TO 0.2IN LESS. A BLENDED SOLUTION STILL LOOKS GOOD...WITH A
SLANT TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT BEGINS TO COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS.
THE 500MB TROUGH AND COLDEST 850MB TEMPS OF -5 TO -8C TRAVERSES
UPPER MI FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS STILL THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. THE
FAVORABLE N-NNW SNOW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SLOWLY SWITCH TO A MORE
W DIRECTION LATER FRIDAY WITH SNOW ENDING W TO E AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE LARGE 500MB LOW OVER THE W U.S. BEGINS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE N AND
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF...WITH A NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE N/WI
BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WAS MORE WRAPPED UP
BUT WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND A WEAKER SFC REFLECTION. THE
SFC HIGH REMAINED STRONG OVER THE REGION THROUGH...WITH 12-24 HOUR
SLOWER RESPONSE COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME IN MUCH MORE
IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS WITH THE NEXT SFC LOW OVERHEAD AT 12Z
MONDAY. WILL SEE IF THIS BETTER CONSISTENCY CAN HOLD UP THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
AFTN...THE NEAR SFC AIR IS DRY ENUF PER LOCAL RAOBS/OBSVD SFC DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3
LOCATIONS. AN INCRSG S WIND TNGT WL RESULT IN LLWS OVERNGT AND DRAW
MOISTER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. BEST CHC FOR A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT SAW...WHERE THE
EXPECTED SSE WIND WL UPSLOPE. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE EXPECTED FLOW
AT IWD AND CMX MAKE IFR CIGS LESS CERTAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MRNG WITH SOME DAYTIME WARMING ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD AND SAW LOCATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME S AND INCREASE
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING HI
PRES TO THE E AND FALLING PRES IN THE PLAINS. OPTED TO UPGRADE GALE
WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE E HALF TO A WARNING FOR WED INTO THE
EVENING...WHEN THE GRADIENT/WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. EXPECT
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW AFTER A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE ON WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF TRAILING HI
PRES WILL LEAD TO WINDS UP TO 30 KTS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL GALE
FORCE WINDS INTO THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO FRI
AS THIS HI PRES EDGES CLOSER. ALTHOUGH W WINDS COULD INCREASE UP TO
25-30KT AGAIN ON SAT UNDER A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HI
CENTERED JUST TO THE SW AND ANOTHER LO PRES TROF SWINGING THRU
NORTHERN ONTARIO...A WEAKER GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ON SUN AFTER THE TROF EXITS INTO QUEBEC AND THE HI PRES
RIDGE BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
335 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR RDG OVER
THE PLAINS EXPANDING INTO THE GREAT LKS. 00Z-12Z H5 HGT RISES OVER
MUCH OF THE W HALF OF THE GREAT LKS WERE AOA 100M AND AS MUCH AS
130M AT APX AND DTX. THE 12Z INL/GRB/APX RAOBS SHOW SHARP SUBSIDENCE
INVRN IN THE H8-85 LYR. DESPITE TEMPS AT THIS ELEVATED INVRN BASE AS
LO AS -10C...RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE SUB INVRN LYR AS DEPICTED ON
THE INL AND GRB RAOBS HAS GREATLY RESTRICTED LES EVEN OVER THE E...
WHERE THE LLVL NW FLOW WAS WEAKLY CYC THIS MRNG AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
RDG AXIS OVER THE WRN CWA EXTENDING TO THE N OF STRONGER HI CENTER
IN THE TN RIVER VALLEY. THE LO CLDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG OVER THE W AND SCENTRAL. EVEN WHERE THE LO
CLDS HAVE DSPTD...A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID/UPR LVL MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONGER WAA IN THE NRN PLAINS IS SUPPORTING AREA OF MID/HI CLDS
SPILLING OVER THE RDG INTO THE WRN LKS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE IMPACT OF
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW THAT IS FCST TO DEVELOP TNGT/WED BETWEEN SFC
HI PRES RDG FCST TO MOVE E/BUILD UNDER THE EXPANDING UPR RDG AND
FALLING MSLP IN THE PLAINS TO THE E OF A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE W.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES SHIFTING E INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC STATES
IS FCST TO BUILD TO ABOUT 1040MB BY 12Z WED. IN CONCERT WITH DVLPG
LO PRES TROF ALONG THE BORDER BTWN MN AND THE DAKOTAS...THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS IS FCST TO TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY...
WITH S H925 WINDS INCRSG UP TO 35-40KTS ACCENTUATED BY DVLPG PRES
FALL CENTER OVER NW ONTARIO. MODELS SHOW AN AXIS OF HIER RH IN THE
SFC-H9 LYR RETURNING INTO THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNGT WITHIN THIS
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AND UNDER LINGERING LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
INVRN. WITH AN UPSOPE LLVL SSE FLOW... MAINTAINED SOME FCST -DZ/
-FZDZ IN THIS AREA. LIMITED DEPTH OF RETURNING MOIST LYR AND/OR
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WL RESULT IN A DRY FCST FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. LO
TEMPS MAY BE TRICKY TNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. IF THE LO CLDS
LINGERING THERE DSPT THIS EVNG WITH THE PASSING OF THE SFC HI/MORE
ACYC FLOW BEFORE THE SLY FLOW PICKS UP...TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY
BEFORE WINDS PICK UP OVERNGT. SUSPECT THE LO CLDS WL BE RESILIENT
ENUF AND INCOMING MID/HI CLDS WL LIMIT THIS EVNG TEMP DROP...SO DID
NOT GO TOO LO WITH FCST MIN TEMPS. INCRSG S WINDS/MORE CLDS WL
LIKELY BRING RISING TEMPS OVERNGT.
WED...STEADY/GUSTY S SLOWLY VEERING SW LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO SLOWLY
INCRS MSTR DEPTH THRU THE DAY. IN CONCERT WITH SOME WEAK DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RA OR DZ. BUT GENERAL DRYNESS OF
THE FCST AIRMASS IN THE MID LVLS/DGZ AND ONLY WEAK FORCING SUGGESTS
ANY PCPN WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE. SO MODEL QPF IS RATHER LGT AND
SPOTTY AND FOCUSED MAINLY AWAY FM THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
ALTHOUGH THE CLDS WL HOLD DOWN MAX TEMPS...READINGS NOT FAR FM 40 WL
STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
...THANKSGIVING PTYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN MAIN ISSUES...
IN THE LARGE SCALE...UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SPLITS TODAY WITH LEADING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TO MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO BY THANKSGIVING WHILE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW STAYS BACK OVER GREAT BASIN. INITIAL WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES AHEAD OF NORTHERN TROUGH AND SHOULD BE OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO BY WED EVENING. COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LOW AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY LATE EVENING OVER FAR WESTERN CWA AND
ACROSS CENTRAL CWA AROUND DAYBREAK ON THU. FRONT MOVES TO EASTERN
CWA THROUGH THU MORNING BUT COOLING TO THE SFC LAGS THE WIND SHIFT
AND DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THU AFTN INTO THU EVENING.
WPC PREFERENCE FOR OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM IS
FOR SOMETHING CLOSER TO 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM. LATEST GEM SIMILAR AS
WELL. GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH FROPA ON THU AND THEN SHOWS MOST OF
THE NEXT ROUND OF QPF MOVING IN BY THU NIGHT STAYING SOUTH AND EAST
OF UPR MICHIGAN. WPC DID NOT PREFER THE GFS. SINCE THE 00Z NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...USED THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS WITH MORE QPF ADDED
/SIMILAR TO CONSISTENT ECMWF/ TO GAGE PYTPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
INITIALLY ON WED STILL APPEARS THAT INTERIOR CNTRL CWA COULD SEE DZ
OR FZDZ WITH MOISTURE BLO 2KFT AND SSE WINDS IN THAT LAYER. BASED ON
WHERE NAM SHOWS LIFT WITHIN THIS MOISTURE AND ORIENTATION OF TERRAIN
EXPECT AREAS FM KIMT TO KSAW TO SEE BEST CHANCE OF ANY LGT PCPN. IN
THE AFTN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPLEMENTED BY MOISTENING UP TO
750MB OR 7-8KFT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH AND SFC-H85 LOW LIFTING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN WITH NOT MUCH QPF TO AFFECT MOST OF CWA INTO WED NIGHT.
SINCE MOISTURE NEVER REACHES UP TO TEMPS BLO -10C PTYPE COULD BE AN
ISSUE WHEN COOLER AIR ARRIVES WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. MAY
SEE RAIN CHANGE TO DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF
SNOW. NW-N WINDS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFTING AS WELL
OVER WESTERN CWA LATE WED NIGHT AND INTO NCNTRL CWA ON THU MORNING.
LATER THU...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LFITS ALONG THE FRONT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION REDEVELOPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...ESPECIALLY ALOFT. NAM
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE IF STEADY PRECIPITATION FORMS AS ECMWF AND
GEM-NH SHOW...PTYPE WOULD BE SNOW OVER WEST...MAINLY SNOW OVER CNTRL
CWA AND LIKELY STAYING RAIN UNTIL LATE DAY OVER EAST. MAY ALSO BE
DEALING WITH SLEET AS WELL UNTIL IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR ONLY
SNOW. SMALL RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL LATE
ON THU INTO THU EVENING...AGAIN BEFORE COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SNOW.
ECMWF REMAINS BULLISH WITH QPF...SHOWING AMOUNTS NEAR 0.80 INCHES
BTWN 18Z THU AND 06Z FRI AT MNM AND A WIDESPREAD 0.40-0.60 IN SWATH
FM IMT TO ERY. ENOUGH WARM LAYER ALOFT H9-H8 TO LEAD TO PTYPE ISSUES
AT MNM BUT FARTHER NORTH MAJORITY OF THIS HEAVY PRECIP WOULD FALL AS
SNOW. GEM PRETTY SIMILAR TO ECMWF...BUT 06Z NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE GFS ARE NOT NEAR AS HIGH WITH QPF. GFS SHOWS LESS THAN 0.25
INCHES AT MNM AND BARELY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FARTHER NORTH. WHAT A
DIFFERENCE! NO REAL APPRECIABLE TRENDS IN ECMWF OR GFS. 06Z NAM DID
TREND SLIGHTLY LESS WITH QPF COMPARED TO 00Z RUN. SREF ENSEMBLE SNOW
ACCUM PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOW SAME TYPE OF SPREAD AT IMT WITH SOME
MEMBERS SHOWING LESS THAN 1 INCH AND OTHERS UP OVER 7 INCHES. FOR
WHAT IT IS WORTH WPC PROBABILISTIC WINTER GRAPHICS SHOWED SHARP JUMP
IN CHANCES OF SEEING OVER 4/6/8 INCHES...MAXIMIZED FM NORTHERN WI
INTO SW UPR MICHIGAN VCNTY FROM IMT TO JUST INLAND FM ESC. NO CLEAR
CUT ANSWER HERE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ADVY SNOWS LATER THU
INTO THU EVENING IS STILL THERE. WILL KEEP MENTIONING THE SYSTEM
AND SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...ONLY MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT AND IT BECOMES VERY DRY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
AFTN...THE NEAR SFC AIR IS DRY ENUF PER LOCAL RAOBS/OBSVD SFC DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3
LOCATIONS. AN INCRSG S WIND TNGT WL RESULT IN LLWS OVERNGT AND DRAW
MOISTER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. BEST CHC FOR A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT SAW...WHERE THE
EXPECTED SSE WIND WL UPSLOPE. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE EXPECTED FLOW
AT IWD AND CMX MAKE IFR CIGS LESS CERTAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MRNG WITH SOME DAYTIME WARMING ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD AND SAW LOCATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME S AND INCREASE
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING HI
PRES TO THE E AND FALLING PRES IN THE PLAINS. OPTED TO UPGRADE GALE
WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE E HALF TO A WARNING FOR WED INTO THE
EVENING...WHEN THE GRADIENT/WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. EXPECT
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW AFTER A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE ON WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF TRAILING HI
PRES WILL LEAD TO WINDS UP TO 30 KTS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL GALE
FORCE WINDS INTO THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO FRI
AS THIS HI PRES EDGES CLOSER. ALTHOUGH W WINDS COULD INCREASE UP TO
25-30KT AGAIN ON SAT UNDER A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HI
CENTERED JUST TO THE SW AND ANOTHER LO PRES TROF SWINGING THRU
NORTHERN ONTARIO...A WEAKER GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ON SUN AFTER THE TROF EXITS INTO QUEBEC AND THE HI PRES
RIDGE BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
239 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015
MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MOSTLY CENTERED AROUND
FOG/DRIZZLE THREAT. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. WITH AN INVERSION IN PLACE AND SNOW COVER THIS
SHOULD LEAD TOWARDS WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG. DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING TO
SEE STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM ABOUT 2Z THROUGH 9Z WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER STRATUS OR FOG BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW NO
CONCERNS WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AS IT APPEARS THAT ANY DRIZZLE SHOULD
OCCUR WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY 34 OR WARMER. THE ONE AREA TO WATCH
MAY BE AROUND THE JAMES VALLEY OR JUST EAST OF THERE WHERE
TEMPERATURES COULD SNEAK DOWN TO 31 OR 32 BY SUNRISE AND CAUSE A
LITTLE FREEZING ON EXPOSED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADS. CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME AND BELIEVE THE THREAT WILL BE EAST
OF THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE EARLY EVENING LOWS IN THE
EASTERN CWA WITH RISING TEMPERATURES BUT MORE STANDARD LOWS IN THE
WESTERN CWA.
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAINFALL FOR WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
KEEP THE THREAT TO DRIZZLE OR FOG. DO STILL HAVE SOME 20 POPS OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AS THERE IS A CHANCE SOME OF THIS DRIZZLE
COULD PRODUCE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME SPREAD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE NORTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST MN AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW
GETS DEEPER. SOME FRONTAL LIFT OF THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY AND HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...TENDING TO SNOW WITH THE
COOLING...OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA ALL THE WAY TO CHAMBERLAIN.
SOME MIXED FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE TRANSITION
AREA AS COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT PROGRESSES AND GETS DEEPER.
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BRING CONTINUED STEADY COOLING WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTHEAST HALF. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND TO SNOW WITH A MIXTURE PRECEDING. THE PRECIPITATION THREAT
SHOULD PEAK AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM
THE WEST. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND FAIRLY
QUICK DRYING COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...LIKELY TO UNQUALIFIED POPS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST ONLY FOR NORTHWEST IOWA INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INCLUDING JACKSON. AT THIS TIME THE
SNOWFALL OUTLOOK IS AROUND 2 INCHES IN THIS AREA WITH LESS TO THE
WEST AND NORTH. WINDS WILL GET JUST A BIT ON THE STIFF SIDE BUT NOT
SEEN STRONG ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW
WITH THESE LIMITED AMOUNTS. THE PROBLEM WITH GETTING MORE IS THAT
THE SHORT WAVE COMING UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW
IS GOING TO RUN INTO RIDGING FORCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WHICH HELPS BRING IN THE COLDER AIR...SO THE WAVE WILL BE DAMPENED
OUT AS IT APPROACHES AND THE DECENT FRONTAL BANDING WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH TO WORK ON IT.
SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OR SIMPLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY NOT ONLY AMONG EACH OTHER BUT
FROM RUN TO RUN ON HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. A DECENT WAVE COMING UP
TOWARD THE AREA MAY TEND TO RAP BACK AROUND THE UPPER LOW. IN ANY
EVENT THERMAL CONTRAST LOOKS FAIR TO POOR IN THIS PATTERN...SO
DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...DO NOT
LOOK FOR A BIG STORM THREAT AT THIS TIME. THE GFS SEEMS TO SERVE UP
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH ITS POSITIONING OF
THE WAVE BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WHEN IT
INTERACTS WITH THE COOLER SNOW COVERED GROUND STRATUS AND FOG WILL
BECOME LIKELY. SUSPECT THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AFTER ABOUT 9-12Z. THE THREAT WILL
BUILD NORTH AFTER ABOUT 3Z WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN THREAT OF IFR.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08