Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/18/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
1005 AM MST MON NOV 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY
CONDITIONS WEST OF TUCSON. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR TODAY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...THEN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING FROM JUST
EAST OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA EWD/SWD ACROSS ERN SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE/
GRAHAM/GREENLEE COUNTIES. THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP OF SIGNIFICANCE HAS
ENDED WEST-TO-NORTHWEST OF TUCSON. PIMA COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE
REPORTED TWO INCHES OF SNOW ON MOUNT LEMMON WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...
AND AN ESTIMATED TWO INCHES OR SO OF SNOW HAD FALLEN ON MOUNT
GRAHAM. MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEY LOCALES HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN LESS THAN 0.20 INCH. SNOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME LIKELY RANGE FROM
5000-5500 FEET.
IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED CLEAER SKIES JUST WEST OF THIS
FORECAST AREA ACROSS SWRN ARIZONA INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CLOUDY SKIES ENCOMPASS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA...
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW TO
DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS
AND THE 16/12Z NAM/GFS...STILL APPEARS THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. PRECIP SHOULD END THIS AFTERNOON FROM
TUCSON WWD INTO WRN PIMA COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
7000 FEET SHOULD BE MINIMAL...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OR SO
FROM THE CATALINA MOUNTAINS NEWD INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN OCCUR FROM WEST-TO-EAST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. WITH REGARD TO THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORY...
BELIEVE THAT SPEEDS WILL REDUCE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY EXPIRE AT 3 PM MST.
REGARDING THE INHERITED FREEZE WATCH...THE 16/12Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE
FOR KTUS HAS TRENDED TWO DEGREES WARMER FOR THE MINIMUM TEMP FOR TUE
MORNING SINCE 15/12Z. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE MIN TEMP FOR KTUS OF 36
DEGRES IS NOW IDENTICAL TO THE 16/12Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. WILL EVALUATE SEVERAL
OTHER GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DETERMINATION WITH RESPECT TO
THIS PRODUCT. AT THIS TIME...AM LEANING TOWARD A CONVERSION TO A
FREEZE WARNING...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
LESS VERSUS THE INHERITED FREEZE WATCH.
THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/18Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA AND MOUNTAIN -SHSN WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EAST OF KTUS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHSN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
CLOUD DECKS INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6K-10K FT
MSL...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST-TO-EAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35
KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND WILL OCCUR EAST OF KTUS AND ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF KSAD/KALK/KDUG. SURFACE WIND THEN DIMINISH TO MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS AROUND 17/02Z - 17/04Z THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT...THEN DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR TODAY. EXPECT A WARMING TREND TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /333 AM MST/...TONIGHT...LINGERING VALLEY SHOWERS/
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES WHICH
SHOULD BE ENDING FOR THE MOST PART AROUND MIDNIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY IN THE 3-
7" RANGE OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF PIMA AND
PINAL COUNTIES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL EXTENT OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...THUS DECIDED TO NOT EXTEND CURRENT FREEZE WATCH OR
CONVERT TO A WARNING. WILL LET DAYSHIFT EVALUATE FURTHER.
TUESDAY...DRY COOL NW FLOW WITH GUSTY NW WINDS IN FAVORED NW-SE
ORIENTED VALLEYS LIKE THE SAFFORD VALLEY. SMALL REBOUND IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THRU
FRIDAY THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ507>509-511>514.
FREEZE WATCH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AZZ502-504-506.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ 800 PM
855 AM MST MON NOV 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LAST IN A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MUCH
COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE AREA...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING INTO THE 30S AND 40S TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...WITH A RETURN OF
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
&&
DISCUSSION... COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF CONTINUED TO PUSH
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH THE
LOW CENTER MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND 12Z PLOT DATA. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED EAST OF THE
PHOENIX AREA AND WAS MOVING INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF ARIZONA
AS OF 8 AM THIS MORNING...AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BAND ARE NOW WELL EAST OF PHOENIX. SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LED TO SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN DESERTS...AND DVV MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING
LOW HAS ALREADY QUICKLY DIMINISHED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH LA PAZ COUNTY. AS THE FINAL VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN LOW AND MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AZ THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND COLD AIR ALOFT CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS...WE MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND THE LOCAL WRF MODELS.
FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS
MORE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...WITH SKIES FROM CENTRAL PHOENIX WESTWARD BECOMING SUNNY OR
MOSTLY SUNNY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE NEARLY 200M
HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE OCCURRED AND THE COLD AIR SPREADING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT THE HIGH TEMPERATURESS TODAY WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE GREATER PHOENIX AERA WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS STAY IN THE UPPER 50S OVER COOLER OUTLYING AREAS...AND ONLY
REACH INTO THE LOW 60S OVER THE WARMER CENTRAL LOCALES. WIND
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN DESERTS...FROM THE
COLORADO RIVER WESTWARD...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TODAY...ALTHOUGH NOT ALL OF THE DESERTS WILL REACH TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A DEEP PV ANOMALY WAS LOCATED NEAR LAS VEGAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
A 140KT JET STREAK AND COLD CORE ALOFT TRANSLATING INTO THE TROUGH
BASE THROUGH SERN CALIFORNIA/WRN ARIZONA. THE SFC FRONT HAD FINALLY
PROPAGATED INTO THE PHOENIX METRO WITH A COMBINATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND H9-H8 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALLOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS DEPICTED MINIMAL MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG...HOWEVER THE
STRONGER FORCING WAS FULLY UTILIZING ALL THIS INSTABILITY WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING
INCREASINGLY FOCUSED OVER SRN GILA COUNTY.
FURTHER TO THE WEST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENING HOWEVER
HAS NOT COMPLETELY REALIZED ITS POTENTIAL AS A SECONDARY FRONT ALONG
THE I-15 CORRIDOR (COINCIDENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT) WAS FOCUSING THE STRONGER POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THIS SECONDARY FRONT WILL DESCEND
THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF ARIZONA LATER THIS
MORNING...AND VERTICAL MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM LLJ WINDS BEING
SPREAD THROUGH THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA (SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
BEING REPORTED AT KDAG...KBYS...AND KNXP EARLY THIS MORNING).
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY HEADLINES THOUGH AREAL AND TEMPORAL
EXTENT MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED.
THIS SECONDARY FRONT AND CAA ALOFT WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WESTERN THROUGH
CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A BRIEF PERIOD OF JUXTAPOSED MIDLEVEL SATURATION
AND COOLING ALOFT TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS...AND SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
HRRR ITERATIONS AND LOCAL WRF CORES SHOW A LOOSELY STRUCTURED LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...VERY AGGRESSIVE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR AND DEEPENING
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SEVERELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND
DURATION...SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD CLEARING WILL BE LIKELY FOR ALL BUT
SRN GILA COUNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS...THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
MOST NOTABLE FEATURE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS COLD ADVECTION IN THE H8-H7 LAYER ALREADY ENVELOPED THE CWA
THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE WILL UNLOAD THE
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS AND FAR LOWER THICKNESSES/FREEZING LEVELS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. IN MANY CASES...TEMPERATURES MAY HOVER STEADY OR
FALL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND EVEN MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 60S. CONCURRENT TO THE FALLING
FREEZING LEVELS...RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ERN MARICOPA/SRN GILA COUNTY. THE BULK OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION (1-3 INCHES) WILL OCCUR ABOVE 5000FT...THOUGH
EVEN A MIX/DUSTING WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO 4000FT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ABRUPTLY ENDING. EVEN THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT
ABATE TONIGHT OVER GILA COUNTY...PURE COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIAMI/GLOBE COMMUNITIES AND FREEZE
WARNING HEADLINES STILL LOOK GOOD.
THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TUESDAY
WITH H5 HEIGHTS CLIMBING SHARPLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA (GENERALLY A
570-576DM RANGE). DESPITE THIS WARMING ALOFT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOL WITH REDUCING MIXING DEPTHS SUCH THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWER TO REBOUND. THIS SITUATION SHOULD BE
QUICKLY REMEDIED BY WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES UNDER INCREASING RIDGING ALOFT AND FULL DAYTIME
INSOLATION.
VERY LITTLE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN BECOMES DOMINATED BY LOWER AMPLITUDE AND
LONGER WAVELENGTH FEATURES. SOME MEASURE OF STRONG FLAT
RIDGING/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC/SOUTHWEST CONUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS
INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG OR WEST OF THE CNTRL
CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS
STILL FAIRLY HIGH. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST H5 HEIGHTS EVEN STRONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST (AROUND 582DM)...AND SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS
HAVE STARTED SHOWING WARMER FORECAST OUTPUT. MADE SOME MINOR UPWARD
REVISIONS TO TEMPERATURES...AND MAY NEED TO FURTHER INCREASE THESE
FORECAST HIGHS A BIT CLOSER TO RECORDS LATE IN THE WEEK (RECORD
HIGHS FOR PHOENIX DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE UPPER 80S).
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
PRIMARY COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH THE PHOENIX AREA...
PROMOTING STRONG AM WESTERLY WINDS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS INTO THE 20KT
RANGE. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS...PERSISTING THE STRONG WEST WINDS AND ADDITIONAL GUSTS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS AROUND THE PHX AREA WILL RANGE
BETWEEN THE 3-6KFT AT TIMES AND IN RELATION TO NEARBY TERRAIN AND
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL
DECKS WILL GRADUALLY THIN AND DISSIPATE IN THE AFTN. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL POP-UP DURING THE DAY...WARRANTING VCSH MENTION
THROUGH MIDDAY. DRY AIR WILL RAPIDLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...CLEARING SKIES BY THE EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
STRONG GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35KTS POSSIBLE AT TIME. STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VSBYS IN BLOWING DUST/SAND NEAR THE TERMINALS THAT MISSED
OUT ON ANY WETTING RAINS YESTERDAY. LINGERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SCT
TO OCCASIONALLY BKN WILL CLEAR EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. WINDS TO
MAINTAIN WEST-NORTHWEST HEADINGS BY THE EVENING...LOSING THEIR
GUSTINESS BUT MAINTAINING SPEEDS 10-12KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AREA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE AFTER THE EARLY WEEK
POTENT STORM...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
SETTLING IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO STABILIZE AND
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY NORMAL READINGS...BACK INTO THE 70S BY
WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES BY
THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS
WHILE ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH HEADINGS VARIANTS OFF
OF NORTH AT TIMES. HUMIDITIES WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW THIRTIES DURING THE DAYTIME WITH CONTINUED GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
AZZ024.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR AZZ020.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR CAZ031.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ030-032.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
823 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO TAKE DOWN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING RAPID IMPROVEMENT AS THE
STORMS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY AND REPORTS FROM OUT THAT WAY INDICATE
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
FORECAST UPDATED TO TAKE DOWN THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE EASTERN MOST ZONES UNTIL 800 PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 527 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXTEND BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS WHERE PERSISTENT SNOW BAND CONTINUES. HRRR SHOWS
THIS DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 7 PM...SO CURRENT THINKING IS
A DOWNGRADE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM TO FINISH
OFF THE EVENT. ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
...AUTUMN BLIZZARD HAS BROUGHT MAJOR IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
AUTUMN BLIZZARD CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY AREAS BEING IMPACTED WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ARE EASTERN LAS ANIMAS...BACA...PROWERS AND EASTERN KIOWA COUNTIES.
WEB CAMS INDICATE HEAVY...BLOWING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN
THESE AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING AT THIS
TIME. WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING 50 TO 60 MPH...CONTRIBUTING TO A LOT
OF DRIFTING SNOW...HIGHWAY CLOSURES...POWER AND COMMUNICATION
DISRUPTIONS. BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES THESE AREAS THROUGH 5
PM. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM AS CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST.
JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE SNOW...STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH
STILL POSSIBLE. THIS INCLUDES CROWLEY...OTERO...WESTERN KIOWA AND
BENT COUNTIES. SNOW MAY COMBINE WITH THE WINDS IN THESE AREAS AT
TIMES TO PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
BENT AND SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTIES.
STORM IS PRETTY MUCH HISTORY FARTHER WEST. THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR...AROUND TRINIDAD AND RATON PASS...COULD SEE A FEW MORE
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. FOR EVERYONE
ELSE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS STORM HAS BROUGHT MAJOR IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
INCLUDING POWER AND COMMUNICATION OUTAGES...HIGHWAY CLOSURES AND
TREE DAMAGE. TRAVEL IS HAZARDOUS...AND IN SOME CASES NOT
POSSIBLE...ACROSS PARTS OF LAS ANIMAS...BACA...PROWERS AND EASTERN
KIOWA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. HIGHWAY 287...385 FROM SOUTH OF LAMAR
TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER IS CLOSED. HIGHWAY 160 FROM EAST OF TRINIDAD
TO SPRINGFIELD IS ALSO CLOSED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID TRAVEL AND STAY
HOME. ATTEMPTING TRAVEL IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING WOULD BE
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS IF NOT FUTILE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
MAIN LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND BASICALLY NIL TO LOW-GRADE
POPS(WITH POPS GENERALLY FAVORING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND NEARBY LOCATIONS
FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT).
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER TERM AS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY TO
ZONAL UPPER FLOW PREVAILS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE
SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGHING IN PLACE FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT NORTHERLY SURFACE SURGE FRIDAY MORNING.
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS DURING THE LONGER
TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT TUESDAY. FINALLY...COOLEST
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED FROM
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM
SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
AS VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...EXPECT THAT THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES NOTING GUSTY
WINDS INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
723 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
FORECAST UPDATED TO TAKE DOWN THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE EASTERN MOST ZONES UNTIL 800 PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 527 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXTEND BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS WHERE PERSISTENT SNOW BAND CONTINUES. HRRR SHOWS
THIS DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 7 PM...SO CURRENT THINKING IS
A DOWNGRADE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM TO FINISH
OFF THE EVENT. ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
...AUTUMN BLIZZARD HAS BROUGHT MAJOR IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
AUTUMN BLIZZARD CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY AREAS BEING IMPACTED WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ARE EASTERN LAS ANIMAS...BACA...PROWERS AND EASTERN KIOWA COUNTIES.
WEB CAMS INDICATE HEAVY...BLOWING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN
THESE AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING AT THIS
TIME. WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING 50 TO 60 MPH...CONTRIBUTING TO A LOT
OF DRIFTING SNOW...HIGHWAY CLOSURES...POWER AND COMMUNICATION
DISRUPTIONS. BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES THESE AREAS THROUGH 5
PM. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM AS CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST.
JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE SNOW...STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH
STILL POSSIBLE. THIS INCLUDES CROWLEY...OTERO...WESTERN KIOWA AND
BENT COUNTIES. SNOW MAY COMBINE WITH THE WINDS IN THESE AREAS AT
TIMES TO PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
BENT AND SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTIES.
STORM IS PRETTY MUCH HISTORY FARTHER WEST. THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR...AROUND TRINIDAD AND RATON PASS...COULD SEE A FEW MORE
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. FOR EVERYONE
ELSE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS STORM HAS BROUGHT MAJOR IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
INCLUDING POWER AND COMMUNICATION OUTAGES...HIGHWAY CLOSURES AND
TREE DAMAGE. TRAVEL IS HAZARDOUS...AND IN SOME CASES NOT
POSSIBLE...ACROSS PARTS OF LAS ANIMAS...BACA...PROWERS AND EASTERN
KIOWA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. HIGHWAY 287...385 FROM SOUTH OF LAMAR
TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER IS CLOSED. HIGHWAY 160 FROM EAST OF TRINIDAD
TO SPRINGFIELD IS ALSO CLOSED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID TRAVEL AND STAY
HOME. ATTEMPTING TRAVEL IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING WOULD BE
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS IF NOT FUTILE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
MAIN LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND BASICALLY NIL TO LOW-GRADE
POPS(WITH POPS GENERALLY FAVORING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND NEARBY LOCATIONS
FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT).
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER TERM AS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY TO
ZONAL UPPER FLOW PREVAILS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE
SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGHING IN PLACE FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT NORTHERLY SURFACE SURGE FRIDAY MORNING.
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS DURING THE LONGER
TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT TUESDAY. FINALLY...COOLEST
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED FROM
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM
SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
AS VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...EXPECT THAT THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES NOTING GUSTY
WINDS INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ096-
098-099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
530 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXTEND BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS WHERE PERSISTENT SNOW BAND CONTINUES. HRRR SHOWS
THIS DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 7 PM...SO CURRENT THINKING IS
A DOWNGRADE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM TO FINISH
OFF THE EVENT. ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
...AUTUMN BLIZZARD HAS BROUGHT MAJOR IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
AUTUMN BLIZZARD CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY AREAS BEING IMPACTED WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ARE EASTERN LAS ANIMAS...BACA...PROWERS AND EASTERN KIOWA COUNTIES.
WEB CAMS INDICATE HEAVY...BLOWING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN
THESE AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING AT THIS
TIME. WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING 50 TO 60 MPH...CONTRIBUTING TO A LOT
OF DRIFTING SNOW...HIGHWAY CLOSURES...POWER AND COMMUNICATION
DISRUPTIONS. BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES THESE AREAS THROUGH 5
PM. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM AS CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST.
JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE SNOW...STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH
STILL POSSIBLE. THIS INCLUDES CROWLEY...OTERO...WESTERN KIOWA AND
BENT COUNTIES. SNOW MAY COMBINE WITH THE WINDS IN THESE AREAS AT
TIMES TO PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
BENT AND SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTIES.
STORM IS PRETTY MUCH HISTORY FARTHER WEST. THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR...AROUND TRINIDAD AND RATON PASS...COULD SEE A FEW MORE
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. FOR EVERYONE
ELSE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS STORM HAS BROUGHT MAJOR IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
INCLUDING POWER AND COMMUNICATION OUTAGES...HIGHWAY CLOSURES AND
TREE DAMAGE. TRAVEL IS HAZARDOUS...AND IN SOME CASES NOT
POSSIBLE...ACROSS PARTS OF LAS ANIMAS...BACA...PROWERS AND EASTERN
KIOWA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. HIGHWAY 287...385 FROM SOUTH OF LAMAR
TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER IS CLOSED. HIGHWAY 160 FROM EAST OF TRINIDAD
TO SPRINGFIELD IS ALSO CLOSED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID TRAVEL AND STAY
HOME. ATTEMPTING TRAVEL IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING WOULD BE
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS IF NOT FUTILE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
MAIN LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND BASICALLY NIL TO LOW-GRADE
POPS(WITH POPS GENERALLY FAVORING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND NEARBY LOCATIONS
FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT).
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER TERM AS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY TO
ZONAL UPPER FLOW PREVAILS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE
SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGHING IN PLACE FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT NORTHERLY SURFACE SURGE FRIDAY MORNING.
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS DURING THE LONGER
TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT TUESDAY. FINALLY...COOLEST
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED FROM
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM
SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
AS VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...EXPECT THAT THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES NOTING GUSTY
WINDS INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ094-096-098-
099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ096-
098-099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
333 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...
CURRENTLY...
700 MB CIRCULATION LIKELY OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT 2 PM AS PER
RADAR AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION ALONG WITH STRONGER STORMS NOTED
OVER THE PLAINS. 500 MB CIRCULATION WAS JUST SW OF THE 4 CORNERS AS
PER WATER VAPOR. NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
DIVERGENT REGION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO. A WIND SHIFT
LINE WAS NOTED ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS THE PUEBLO/EL PASO COUNTY
LINE...MOVING SOUTH.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP BY 7 TO 8 PM AS 700 MB WIND STEADILY INCREASE. HRRR BY
MIDNIGHT SHOWS 700 MB WINDS OF 70 KNTS OVER N EL PASO COUNTY. HEAVY
WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND LAST INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW IS LIKELY AND GUSTS TO 50
MPH ARE LIKELY. SNOW DRIFTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND TRAVEL WILL BE
DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DVD.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE 700 MB CIRCULATION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL LIKELY FAVOR ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. FOR THIS
REASON I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR EASTER LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY. TOTAL ACCUMS THIS REGION SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 INCHES.
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO FALL ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE S MTNS...BUT WITH 700 MB WINDS HAVING A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT
(VS NORTHEASTERLY)...EXCESSIVELY HEAVY SNOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
OVERALL 6 TO 10 INCHES IS LIKELY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT MTN TOP.
ALONG THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY FROM FREMONT TO THE KS BORDER SHOULD
SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIMIT
ACCUMS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WINDS...HAVE INCLUDED MOST
OF THESE REGIONS IN A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. THE SNOW OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE E PLAINS SHOULD BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING
AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
STRONG WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
THE PLAINS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WIDESPREAD. STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MTNS...AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST...FLOW WILL
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE SW MTNS...AND SNOW RATES SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS REGION.
TUESDAY...
STORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. MAIN CONCERN IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT E LAS ANIMAS
WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW BUT AREAS FROM LAMAR AND SPRINGFIELD I AM NOT SO
CONFIDENT AS STORM WILL BE LIFTING OUT AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE ALL
THAT COLD. HOWEVER...IF EC VERIFIES WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THIS
WILL PUT THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW. WILL
DISCUSS THIS CONCERN WITH THE EVENING SHIFT AND ALLOW THEM TO ADJUST
THE FCST AS NEEDED.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION SHOULD BE
LESSENING BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STILL BE
AN ISSUE AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. I
WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME SUN ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN OVER ALL OF THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE LIKELY ALL AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN. PRIMARILY LONGER TERM ISSUES INCLUDES TIMING OF
DEPARTING SNOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING FORECAST DISTRICT
...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.
RECENT LONGER TERM PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT VIGOROUS CLOSED UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVE INTO IOWA BY
NOON WEDNESDAY.
HAVE DEPICTED CONTINUED GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
INTO TUESDAY EVENING(PRIMARILY EASTERN SECTIONS) WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING OVER MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY
12Z WEDNESDAY.
THEN A RETURN TO BASICALLY TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES) SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT MONDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES RUNNING WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF
MID TO LATE NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND NEXT MONDAY...WHILE COOLEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED
SATURDAY. FINALLY...MOST AGGRESSIVE GRADIENT WINDS DURING THE
LONGER TERM ARE PROJECTED FROM TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
EXTREME NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AT KCOS AND KPUB DURING
THE NEXT 24. PEAK WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 KNOTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS...BUT THE GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE COLORADO SPRINGS REGION WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH
VERY HIGH AMOUNTS N OF THE AIRPORT AND MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS S OF THE
AIRPORT. OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING ABOUT 5-6 INCHES AT KCOS...BUT
THIS IS OUR BEST SCIENTIFIC GUESS.
KPUB MAY ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP....ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OVER KPUB SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE ANY SNOWFALL AT KPUB.
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE AT KPUB THROUGH THE NEXT 24H.
GUSTY N WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT KALS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE AS STRONG. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KALS THIS
EVENING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ089-093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-061-
072-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ063-076-
079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ095-096.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-073-
075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ087.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST TUESDAY
FOR COZ094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
065-067.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ066-068.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ081-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ088.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ084.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1101 AM MST MON NOV 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MST MON NOV 16 2015
CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. MOVED UP BLIZZARD WARNING
FOR ZONE 41...DOUGLAS AND ERN ELBERT COUNTIES TO START AT 01Z/6
PM MST TODAY. ALSO ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH PARK
ZONE 37 BEGINNING AT 00Z/5 PM MST TODAY. SNOWFALL HAS BEGUN IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS. CWA STILL UNDER
THE SLY WARM SECTOR OF THE TROUGH. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A COLD FRONT RACING SOUTH ACRS NERN COLORADO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH THEN INTRODUCES GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
PLAINS. EXCEPTION TO THIS... SAME MODELS SHOW A SFC LOW SPINNING
UP ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE VICINITY OF NRN LINCOLN COUNTY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THAT LOW A SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS
EXISTING SOUTH ACRS THE COUNTY. DATA FROM HRRR AND WRF INDICATE
T-STORM FORMATION ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH ACRS LINCOLN COUNTY. WILL
ADD A CHANCE OF TSTMS TO THIS AREA WITH ZONE UPDATE SHORTLY.
LASTLY...MODELS SHOW A BAND OF MOD/HVY CONVECTION IN THE FROM OF
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX LIFTING NORTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON...MOVED UP BLIZZARD WARNING
FOR ZONE 41/DOUGLAS/ERN ELBERT COUNTIES. BUT STRONGEST WINDS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN PRECIP ON THE PLAINS GOES
OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH NELY/UPSLOPE FLOW KICKING IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM MST MON NOV 16 2015
MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND STRONGER SYSTEM. PRETTY
GOOD CONSENSUS ON THESE TRENDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY HIGH IN THE HEAVY
SNOW BAND...SREF MEANS AND OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS RUNS ALL HAVE 8-18
INCHES ACROSS THE CITY OF DENVER WITH A 1-2 FOOT BAND FROM DOUGLAS
COUNTY EASTWARD TOWARD LIMON...AKRON...AND HOLYOKE...WITH VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SHADOWING AND LESS SNOW NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...THEN A
SHARP GRADIENT NORTHWARD ACROSS WELD COUNTY. HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN
THE MAX SNOWFALL BAND IN MANY OF THE RUNS. SREF SPREAD FOR THE
DENVER AREA...HIGHEST 25 PERCENT HAD AROUND 20 INCHES AT DIA AND
CENTENNIAL AND 12 IN BROOMFIELD...LOWEST 25 PERCENT STILL HAD 6
INCHES OVER THE CITY WITH JUST A COUPLE INCHES NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.
NORTH EDGE OF THE BAND HAS ALSO CREPT NORTHWARD...AND MODELS
INCREASINGLY WRAPPING THE HEAVY SNOW SOUTH ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY
DESPITE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS...GFS HAD 3 FEET IN LIMON AND 2
FEET IN KARVAL AREA FOR EXAMPLE. NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HUGE
AMOUNTS...THOUGH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SLOW A BIT MORE. MOVED OUR FORECAST ABOUT 2/3 OF THE
WAY TOWARD THE NEW MODEL AVERAGES...WHICH IS ENOUGH GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS. WILL GO TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IN THE WATCH AREA AND
ALSO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WELD COUNTY WHERE SOME AREAS WILL BE PRETTY
BAD. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND ADVISORIES IN THE SHADOWED AREA FROM BOULDER TO
NORTHERN WELD AND LARIMER COUNTIES AS WELL AS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY. ALSO SLOWED THE TIMING DOWN ABOUT 3 HOURS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.
CONCERNS AT THIS POINT ARE MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE WARNING AREA...AND HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS IN THE HEAVY
SNOW BAND. AGAIN...THE FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE ENOUGH FOR A SERIOUS
STORM...BUT MODEL RANGE STILL FAIRLY LARGE WITH HALF TO DOUBLE THE
AMOUNTS WE ARE THROWING OUT. WE ALSO WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTH PARK
FOR THE STRONG FORCING TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING
BUT IT MAY NEED AN ADVISORY OR WARNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM MST MON NOV 16 2015
THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS AT 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS...AGAIN...A TAD FURTHER
NORTH THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z MODEL RUNS. AT 00Z TUESDAY LATE
DAY...THE UPPER LOW IS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND THERE IS A DUE
NORTHERLY JET MAXIMUM OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
PRETTY STRONG AND IS NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND IS PRETTY STRONG WITH A JET MAXIMUM TRYING TO NOSE INTO
COLORADO FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS STILL SOME VERY
STRONG UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY OVER THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER TUESDAY EVENING. DOWNWARD MOTION IS PROGGED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ALL NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON TUESDAY. SPEEDS ARE
SIGNIFICANT OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS. MORE DUE NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING IS PROGGED ALL OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS
SEEM TO GO ALONG NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. MOISTURE IS STILL DEEP
OVER THE EASTERN CWA ON TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME IN THE MOUNTAINS AS
WELL...BUT THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PLAINS HAVE DOWNSLOPE DRYING.
THERE IS SOME MORE MOISTURE AROUND...BUT MORE SHALLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRIES OUT FOR ALL THE CWA. WITH
THE SLOWER NATURE OF THE MODELS...THE QPF FIELDS SHOW MORE
MEASURABLE SNOW ON TUESDAY AND EVEN A BIT INTO TUESDAY EVENING FOR
THE FAR EAST AND HIGH MOUNTAINS. THERE IS MINOR MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MIDNIGHT. SO FOR
POPS...WILL UP THEM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST ON TUESDAY. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL STILL NEED SOME 10-40%S FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN BORDER. NO POPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS OR PLAINS
FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNEDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED
CHANCES FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHLIGHTS
FROM THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER LOOK GOOD AS THEY ARE EXTENDED INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL LEAVE THEM GOING OVER THE PLAINS UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FOR NOW. A BLIZZARD IS A GOOD BET FOR PLAINS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE 6-12 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S
HIGHS. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS WILL WARM UP 1-3 C FORM TUESDAY`S
READINGS. FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS
SHOW WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WELL INTO FRIDAY...THEN IT
BECOMES ZONAL. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH COLORADO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF NEVER REALLY SHOWS THIS FEATURE.
ANYWAY...THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE...MOSTLY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW NORMALS FOR THE FOUR DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MST MON NOV 16 2015
DENVER AREA AIRPORT TERMINALS COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE METRO AREA AFTER 2 PM MST TODAY.
KAPA COULD THEN SEE RAIN QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW AROUND 5
PM MST OR 6 PM TODAY WITH A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
SWINGING UP FROM THE SOUTH. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE ALL SNOW BY MID-
EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS
15-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 30KTS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE METRO AREA AND TO AROUND 45KTS ON THE EAST
SIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR
COZ040-043>046-048>051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031-035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ033-034-036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ038-039-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ037.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR
COZ041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ047.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
858 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ATLANTIC ON
THE BREEZE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE SHOWER FOCUS IS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. HRRR SHOWS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF SE FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. SO
WILL MAINTAIN 20-40 POPS FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015/
AVIATION...
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DIE OFF
OVERNIGHT AND THEN REFORM TOMORROW. SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE
EASTERLY AT SPEEDS UP TO 15 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ONSHORE AND FOCUSES ACROSS
BROWARD COUNTY TODAY. HOWEVER, SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED THIS
PAST HOUR. LACK OF CONVERGENCE ON A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS KEEPING ACTIVITY LOW TOPPED. SO HAVE
REMOVED TSTORM MENTION IN THE FORECAST. HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS LOW
GIVEN THE FAST MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY...AND EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE.
OF COURSE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY TRAINING, BUT THAT IS NOT
APPARENT AT THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL BE PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FLORIDA WED-THU BUT AS THE MAIN VORT ENERGY
TRAVERSES OFF TO THE NORTH...THE FRONT WILL ONLY LIMP INTO CENTRAL
FL BY THU. EXPECTING A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY. THE HIGHEST POPS
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THU AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER. ALSO, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTORMS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. /GREGORIA
EXTENDED FORECAST (FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS NO SIGNIFICANT
MODEL CHANGES)...
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA PERHAPS FRIDAY. THE
PERSISTENT MIDLEVEL RIDGE IS EFFECTIVELY FLATTENED, AND COOLER H5
TEMPS (POSSIBLY TO -9C) AND MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ARE THE
RESULT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS RUN, AND NEITHER
ARE DEPICTING A PRETTY PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY IS
SHOWN TO STALL OVER SOUTH FL OR THE FL STRAITS, AND A SIMILAR
SCENARIO TO THIS PAST WEEKEND MAY TAKE SHAPE. DEEP AND
STRENGTHENING E TO NE WINDS RETURN AND SEVERAL SHRTWVS MAY RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, MAY
FINALLY SHOVE THE FRONT SOUTH AND USHER IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE ECMWF IS FASTER TO PUSH THE FRONT AWAY,
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE GRADUAL PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE IS ALSO SLOWER WITH THE FRONT, AND THE H85 TEMPS FROM THE
ENSEMBLE ARE ACTUALLY WARMER THAN THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN.
NONETHELESS, ALMOST THE ENTIRE LONG RANGE SUITE, ENSEMBLE AND
OPERATIONAL RUNS, HAVE H85 TEMPS FROM 8-11C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY NEXT TUESDAY. THIS IS GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME
RANGE, AND MAY BE HINTING AT THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLEST AIR SO FAR
THIS FALL. LOCAL BLENDS ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60F NEXT TUESDAY. STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY SO CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED.
MARINE...
BASED OFF CURRENT MARINE OBS AND FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...HAVE
ADJUSTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ONLY INCLUDE THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS EFFECTIVE THROUGH WED MORNING.
WINDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE GULF, BISCAYNE BAY, AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT 15 KT OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...BUT REMAIN BELOW 20 KT SUSTAINED. /GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 86 78 86 / 40 40 50 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 85 78 85 / 40 40 40 40
MIAMI 76 86 77 85 / 30 40 40 40
NAPLES 73 89 73 85 / 10 20 20 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ676.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
840 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING AND BEACH CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY...
.UPDATE...A VIGOROUS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE LWR MS VALLEY
TWD WRN AL LATE TONIGHT WITH ESE LOW LVL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL. CAPE WIND PROFILERS AND MODEL PROGS
INDICATE WINDS IN THE 1-3 FT LAYER WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH
SFC WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. 00Z CAPE SOUNDING
INDICATED DRY AIR IN THE H7-H3 LYR...WITH A PWAT VALUE OF 1.38
INCHES. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
BEACHES WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE ISOLATED RANGE ACROSS
FAR INTERIOR AREAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
LIKELY PUSHING INLAND TWD ERN OSCEOLA/OKEECHOBEE AND METRO ORLANDO.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S AND N CSTL SECTIONS TO MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION INTO WED...
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE GRADIENT WINDS HAVE STEADILY
INCREASED AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AT THE BEACHES. MOISTURE SUITABLE FOR INCREASING MARINE SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED AS STRENGTH OF THE OVERLYING RIDGE SUBSIDES OVER THE
LOCAL ATLC WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW @ BOUNDARY LAYER UPWARDS OF 20 TO
25 KT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIURNAL REDEVELOPMENT OF MARINE SOURCE PCPN
AS INDICATED BY LTST HRRR GUID ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST WITH
SUITABLE WINDS PUSHING SHOWERS WELL INLAND. BEST DEVELOPED CU
BANDS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME MEASURED RAIN AMOUNTS OF .10
TO .20 INCHES INTO EARLY WED AS THEY COME ASHORE. LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING WED IN VEERING WIND FLOW PATTERN WITH
REGIME OF SE-LIES LEADING TO A FURTHER INCREASE IN AVBL MOISTURE
WITH NEAR RECORD WARM AND PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. SCT RAIN CVRG
AREAWIDE WL BE USED IN THE FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION... GENERALLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
ONSHORE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME ISOLD-SCT SHRA TO MOVE TWD CSTL
TERMINALS 02Z-03Z AND PUSH TWD KSFB/KMCO BY 04Z. COVERAGE WILL NOT
BE HIGH WITH BRIEF SHRA SO COVERED WITH VCSH MOST AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...
BUOY 41009 WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 19 KNOTS AT 8 PM WITH 6 FT SEAS.
CURRENT FORECAST WINDS WINDS INCREASING TO 18-20 KNOTS NEAR THE
COAST AND 20-22 KNOTS OFFSHORE ON TRACK. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-8 FT
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED WITH SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT NEAR SHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ALL MARINE ZONES.
&&
.CLIMATE...VERO BEACH TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH FOR TODAYS DATE AT 86
DEGREES...LAST SET LAST YEAR IN 2014.
WARM LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY AT VERO BEACH AND MELBOURNE
TODAY UNLESS EITHER SITE RECEIVES A HEAVY SHOWER BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
LOC DATE HI-MAX HI-MIN
DAB 17-NOV 88 1988 71 1980
MCO 17-NOV 89 1957 70 1980
MLB 17-NOV 89 2014 *72 2013 (MORNING LOW TODAY 76 DEGREES)
VRB 17-NOV #86 2015 *74 1958 (MORNING LOW TODAY 76 DEGREES)
# TIES RECORD FOR THE DATE (LAST SET IN 2014)
* ON TRACK TO REACH WARM LOW TEMP RECORD AT MELBOURNE AND VERO BEACH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 72 84 73 80 / 30 30 40 60
MCO 71 86 71 83 / 20 30 40 60
MLB 77 85 74 82 / 30 30 40 60
VRB 75 84 74 82 / 30 30 30 60
LEE 71 86 72 81 / 20 30 40 60
SFB 70 86 71 81 / 20 30 40 60
ORL 72 86 72 82 / 20 30 40 60
FPR 75 84 74 82 / 30 30 30 60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 4 PM TODAY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20
NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60
NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET
TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
VOLKMER/SEDLOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
822 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
Things are going about as planned this evening across central and
southeast Illinois with the current storm system. The mostly dry
period during the late afternoon/early evening has come to an end
across western sections of the forecast area as another main band
of rainfall spreads into the area. This band is expected to track
east for the rest of the night, eventually impacting the entire
area with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Otherwise gusty
southerly winds will persist through the night, with gusts as high
as 40 MPH likely. This southerly flow will keep temperatures very
mild for mid-November. with low temperatures no cooler than the
upper 50s.
Made a few adjustments to hourly PoPs to better reflect current
radar trends. Other parameters were in good shape and only
required a few tweaks.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
993 mb surface low pressure over central KS to eject into sw MN by
dawn Wed as 536 dm 500 mb low over OK panhandle moves to near the
NE/KS/MO border. A lull in the showers is occurring this
afternoon from I-55 southeast and this break could move into parts
of the IL river valley late this afternoon too. The HRRR model
seems to be reflecting this trend the best and followed it for
tonight`s precipitation forecast. Large area of showers over MO
into southeast IA and nw IL to spread eastward across central IL
tonight and overspread eastern IL late this evening and overnight.
Not much thunder activity so far today but SPC has general risk of
thunder over CWA into tonight and will continue to carry isolated
thunderstorms though diminishing thunder chances from west to east
later tonight. Up to an additional 1 inch of rain expected into
early Wed morning and this is falling on top of 1 to 2 inches that
has already fallen over the area since Monday. Will continue the
flood watch over sw half of CWA through 6 am Wednesday and may be
able to cancel early in western portion with 3 am forecast package
tonight as heavier rain band shifts into eastern IL later tonight.
Strong se winds 15-30 mph and gusts as highs as 30-40 mph to keep
mild lows in the mid to upper 50s which is a bit above normal
highs for mid November.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
A strong storm system will continue to impact central and southeast
Illinois to start the day Wednesday, although the steadier rainfall
should be limited to the far eastern extent of the forecast area.
While the heavier rains should be over or quickly ending on
Wednesday, the gusty winds will persist. In fact, as the associated
upper-level cold pool approaches, and surface cold front lags
behind, the steeper low-level lapse rates support even stronger
winds than today. Would not be surprised to see gusts to around 40
MPH for much of the day, and the need for a Wind Advisory will need
to be monitored closely.
Quiet and cooler weather will spread across the region behind the
major system for Thursday and most of Friday as high pressure builds
into the area. While temperatures during the period will be
significantly cooler than we have seen lately, they are much closer
to normal for mid-November.
Models are coming into better agreement regarding a weather
disturbance to end the week. A significant short wave is progged to
translate through the shallower broad trof across North America,
with the trof axis crossing the Midwest from Friday night into
Saturday. This short wave is expected to be accompanied a clipper-
type low pressure system as it moves through. The system is expected
to have precipitation associated with it, and most should fall on
the cool side of the system as is typical with clippers. While the
exact timing/track of the clipper is still in doubt, confidence is
building that most of the forecast area should see precipitation.
Thermal profiles support most, if not all, of the precipitation to
fall in the form of snow. However, if the system arrives early
enough Friday night, it may be warm enough for rain at the onset.
Also, given the strength of the wave, and CAA it its wake, expect
temperatures on Saturday to remain steady or fall as the system
clears the area. Many areas are not likely to make it out of the 30s
Saturday and Sunday. Overall, this system will need to be monitored
closely as it has the potential to bring the first accumulating snow
of the season to parts of the forecast area. However, the warm
ground temperatures should mitigate this threat to some degree.
Cooler than normal temperatures will linger through the end of the
forecast. An additional disturbance may impact the area by Tuesday,
but the current model consensus supports dry weather beyond Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
Conditions have improved to VFR across much of the central
Illinois terminal area in the wake of the earlier heavy rainfall.
However, this improvement will be short lived as another band of
heavier rain will push in this evening and linger through much of
the night. The steadier rains will end Wednesday morning with
conditions improving to high-end MVFR or possibly VFR once again.
Winds will remain quite gusty through the 00Z TAF valid time,
initially out of the southeast, and eventually out of the
southwest.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ036-040>042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
530 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
993 mb surface low pressure over central KS to eject into sw MN by
dawn Wed as 536 dm 500 mb low over OK panhandle moves to near the
NE/KS/MO border. A lull in the showers is occurring this
afternoon from I-55 southeast and this break could move into parts
of the IL river valley late this afternoon too. The HRRR model
seems to be reflecting this trend the best and followed it for
tonight`s precipitation forecast. Large area of showers over MO
into southeast IA and nw IL to spread eastward across central IL
tonight and overspread eastern IL late this evening and overnight.
Not much thunder activity so far today but SPC has general risk of
thunder over CWA into tonight and will continue to carry isolated
thunderstorms though diminishing thunder chances from west to east
later tonight. Up to an additional 1 inch of rain expected into
early Wed morning and this is falling on top of 1 to 2 inches that
has already fallen over the area since Monday. Will continue the
flood watch over sw half of CWA through 6 am Wednesday and may be
able to cancel early in western portion with 3 am forecast package
tonight as heavier rain band shifts into eastern IL later tonight.
Strong se winds 15-30 mph and gusts as highs as 30-40 mph to keep
mild lows in the mid to upper 50s which is a bit above normal
highs for mid November.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
A strong storm system will continue to impact central and southeast
Illinois to start the day Wednesday, although the steadier rainfall
should be limited to the far eastern extent of the forecast area.
While the heavier rains should be over or quickly ending on
Wednesday, the gusty winds will persist. In fact, as the associated
upper-level cold pool approaches, and surface cold front lags
behind, the steeper low-level lapse rates support even stronger
winds than today. Would not be surprised to see gusts to around 40
MPH for much of the day, and the need for a Wind Advisory will need
to be monitored closely.
Quiet and cooler weather will spread across the region behind the
major system for Thursday and most of Friday as high pressure builds
into the area. While temperatures during the period will be
significantly cooler than we have seen lately, they are much closer
to normal for mid-November.
Models are coming into better agreement regarding a weather
disturbance to end the week. A significant short wave is progged to
translate through the shallower broad trof across North America,
with the trof axis crossing the Midwest from Friday night into
Saturday. This short wave is expected to be accompanied a clipper-
type low pressure system as it moves through. The system is expected
to have precipitation associated with it, and most should fall on
the cool side of the system as is typical with clippers. While the
exact timing/track of the clipper is still in doubt, confidence is
building that most of the forecast area should see precipitation.
Thermal profiles support most, if not all, of the precipitation to
fall in the form of snow. However, if the system arrives early
enough Friday night, it may be warm enough for rain at the onset.
Also, given the strength of the wave, and CAA it its wake, expect
temperatures on Saturday to remain steady or fall as the system
clears the area. Many areas are not likely to make it out of the 30s
Saturday and Sunday. Overall, this system will need to be monitored
closely as it has the potential to bring the first accumulating snow
of the season to parts of the forecast area. However, the warm
ground temperatures should mitigate this threat to some degree.
Cooler than normal temperatures will linger through the end of the
forecast. An additional disturbance may impact the area by Tuesday,
but the current model consensus supports dry weather beyond Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
Conditions have improved to VFR across much of the central
Illinois terminal area in the wake of the earlier heavy rainfall.
However, this improvement will be short lived as another band of
heavier rain will push in this evening and linger through much of
the night. The steadier rains will end Wednesday morning with
conditions improving to high-end MVFR or possibly VFR once again.
Winds will remain quite gusty through the 00Z TAF valid time,
initially out of the southeast, and eventually out of the
southwest.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ036-040>042-047>054-056-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
257 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
The first short wave moving ne across central IL this afternoon is
combining with isentropic lift, 35-50 kt sw 850 mb jet and
precipitable water values of 1-1.25 inches to bring initial batch of
rain showers to central and southeast IL, especially from the IL
river southeast. Pockets of moderate rain showers were sw of
Springfield to near and east of St Louis but no thunder with this
1st batch of showers.
Looks like a lull in showers taking shape from sw to ne during the
evening as 1st short wave and its forcing/lift exits ne of IL. Then
the next and stronger short wave ejects ne into central IL later
tonight and ramps up the chances of showers back to categorical pops
between 3-7 am along with some moderate showers by daybreak.
Precipitable water values elevate from 1.25-1.50 inches during
overnight and will bring best chances of moderate rain showers, with
0.50-0.75 inches of rain sw CWA tonight, especially overnight.
Isolated thunderstorm chances to stay sw of CWA through 12Z/6 am
Tue. Will continue the flood watch sw CWA overnight into Tue night
though main heavy rain threat will be after tonight. Temperatures
currently in the upper 40s to near 50F and should be nearly steady
and could even rise a bit overnight to between 50-55F by daybreak
with increasing se winds of 15-25 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
A strong storm system will continue to impact the area into
Wednesday. The track of the core of the system, to the west of
Illinois, will keep this entirely a rain event across central and
southeast Illinois.
Strong, deep, southerly flow will transport anomalously high
moisture levels into the area by early Tuesday. This should result
in at least two waves of steadier/heavier rainfall with this event.
The first would be Tuesday morning as an area of stronger isentropic
ascent & upper diffluence cross the area, while the second occurs
Tuesday night as strong jet forcing moves through. Will maintain
current Flood Watch across southwest half of the area, but feel the
flood threat is rather low overall given long duration of rainfall,
how dry it has been lately/very high flash flood guidance, and low
river stages. Aside from the rain, the other main concern with this
system is the strong winds it will bring with it tomorrow into
Wednesday. Forecast soundings suggest winds in the vicinity of 50
kts within a couple thousand feet of the ground for much of the
period of concern (tomorrow into Wednesday). However, there are a
couple things that may preclude these stronger winds from reaching
the ground, at least as far as necessitating a Wind Advisory. First,
the strong WAA aloft should preclude surface based mixing to a
degree, although stronger downpours may be able to transport some of
the stronger gusts down. Second, the system will be
occluding/weakening as it arrives locally. So, while it will be
quite windy in any event, will hold off on issuing a Wind Advisory
at this time.
In the wake of this major system, broad upper troffing will develop
across much of North America. This will swing temperatures around
from the above normal levels we`ve seen for quite some time to below
normal at least into early next week. While no system of consequence
appears likely to impact the area in the Thursday-Monday time frame,
the models are trying to capture subtle short waves in the fast
moving cyclonic flow that will be in place. Unfortunately, these
weaker waves are tough to pin-point, and there is a significant
model spread in the explicit timing/track of these waves. At this
point, it appears that one disturbance will arrive in the Friday
night-Saturday night time frame. Will carry Slight Chance PoPs to
cover the potential arrival period of this wave, but it does not
appear to be a significant weather producer in any event. However,
depending on when it arrives, it may be cold enough for the
associated precipitation to fall in the form of snow, although the
light nature of the precipitation, warm ground, and above freezing
daytime highs should not allow it to stick.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
VFR conditions currently will deteriorate during the afternoon as
ceilings of 5-10k ft at midday drop to 800-1500 feet and with
vsbys down to 4-6 miles in light rain lifting ne during the next
few hours. Upstream, Jacksonville down to 900 foot overcast ceiling
while Macomb down to 1200 feet ceiling. HRRR handling these low
ceilings fairly well and followed it for lowering ceilings during
the afternoon. IFR ceilings and mvfr vsbys expected tonight and
Tue morning with ceilings below 1k ft. Vsbys getting down to 1-2
miles with heavier rains Tue morning. Isolated thunderstorms to
mostly be sw of central IL airports next 24 hours, but could get
close to SPI after 14Z Tue. Breezy sse winds 12-16 kts and gusts
20-25 kts this afternoon to be se tonight and increase to 16-22
kts and gusts of 25-30 kts later tonight through Tue morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch from midnight CST tonight through late Tuesday night
for ILZ036-040>042-047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1159 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
Made a few adjustments to the forecast today to address the
increasing chances of rain showers from sw to ne during the
rest of the day. At 10 am the light rain showers have spread
as far ne as Galesburg to Decatur to Robinson while mid level
clouds blanket central/se IL with low clouds sw of Macomb and
Jacksonville. Relatively low dewpoints in the low to mid 30s over
ne half of CWA appears to be slowing down the arrival of light
rain showers. Dewpoints rise into the mid 40s from Macomb and
Jacksonville sw. Temperatures at 10 am range from 48-54F and not
much rise expected this afternoon in the low to mid 50s due to
lowering cloud ceilings and rain showers moving in. Breezy sse
winds of 10-17 mph and gusts of 18-25 mph expected today.
Will continue the Flood Watch sw half of CWA overnight through
Tuesday night with 3-3.5 inches of rain and updated ESF product
ne half of CWA with 2.5-3 inches of rain forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
A large area of mid level cloudiness has spread north into our area
early this morning ahead of a lead shortwave that is currently
across parts of central Kansas south thru the Texas Panhandle. Just
ahead of this feature was a band of showers stretching from central
Nebraska southeast through central Missouri into western Kentucky.
We expect this rain to shift northeast this morning but will have a
tough time pushing very far into our area as forecast soundings
continue to show a rather dry atmosphere in place in the low levels
thru most of this morning. The 2 A.M. surface map depicted only 30 and
40 degree dew points to our south, with the 50 and 60 degree dew points
confined to western Oklahoma into western Texas. However, with time,
the moisture will deepen in the lower layers across our forecast area
we should see the rain spread in from the southwest this morning affecting
west central through southeast Illinois first, with the east seeing the
showers this afternoon.
Rainfall amounts today are not expected to be that significant with most
areas seeing a quarter of an inch or less. With the extensive cloud cover
and precipitation today, temperatures will be quite a bit cooler than what
we saw yesterday with most areas in the middle 50s accompanied by a gusty
southerly breeze.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
Several items up for consideration in this part of the forecast.
These include the well-advertised heavy rain event for the next
couple days, the winds tomorrow, and potential for some wintry
precipitation late in the week.
1) Heavy rain:
Have introduced a Flood Watch beginning at midnight tonight and
running through 6 am Wednesday. The orientation is basically in
areas where around 3 inches or more of rain is expected, roughly
along and south of a Havana to Robinson line. The heavier rain will
be focused in a couple waves, one overnight tonight into Tuesday
morning, then the other Tuesday night. Precipitable water values
expected to climb to a November-extreme of 1.6 inches by Tuesday
morning, as a steady low level jet of 50+ knots (getting into the 75
knot range by evening) pumps plenty of moisture up from the Gulf of
Mexico. The longer duration of the rain should limit the traditional
rapid-developing flash flooding, but the soil should become
saturated fairly quickly and leaf debris will help cause some poor
drainage as well. Some light showers will linger into Wednesday
morning across mainly the eastern CWA, but not should appreciably
add to the flood potential.
2) Winds for Tuesday and Tuesday night:
Mid-latitude cyclone will be tightening up as the surface low tracks
into western kansas by Tuesday morning before lifting northeast and
occluding. Aforementioned low level jet should get some elements
mixed down to the surface despite the widespread clouds, and gusts
of 30-40 mph are likely Tuesday and Tuesday night over our area. A
Wind Advisory may need to be issued in the subsequent shifts, but
will hold off for now since we`re still over 24 hours away before
the higher winds develop. While winds will gradually decrease after
mid week, the slow departure of this system (as it gets caught up in
a deep upper trough dropping into the north central U.S.) should
result in breezy conditions persisting into Thursday.
3) Wintry weather potential late week:
Still some uncertainty with the late week system, as the ECMWF has a
much broader, colder and deeper upper trough dominating the Midwest
into the weekend, while the GFS is milder and not as deep. The
colder solution features a fast moving wave which brings a streak of
precipitation more across the central CWA early Saturday, when the
ECMWF features forecast soundings below zero. The more moderate GFS
gradually brings a front north to south during the day, slowed by
the front being parallel to the upper flow, with precipitation
mostly in the form of rain. Have leaned more toward the ECMWF
solution and mentioned a rain/snow mix for areas north of I-70, with
the changeover south of there holding off until Saturday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
VFR conditions currently will deteriorate during the afternoon as
ceilings of 5-10k ft at midday drop to 800-1500 feet and with
vsbys down to 4-6 miles in light rain lifting ne during the next
few hours. Upstream, Jacksonville down to 900 foot overcast ceiling
while Macomb down to 1200 feet ceiling. HRRR handling these low
ceilings fairly well and followed it for lowering ceilings during
the afternoon. IFR ceilings and mvfr vsbys expected tonight and
Tue morning with ceilings below 1k ft. Vsbys getting down to 1-2
miles with heavier rains Tue morning. Isolated thunderstorms to
mostly be sw of central IL airports next 24 hours, but could get
close to SPI after 14Z Tue. Breezy sse winds 12-16 kts and gusts
20-25 kts this afternoon to be se tonight and increase to 16-22
kts and gusts of 25-30 kts later tonight through Tue morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for
ILZ036-040>042-047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1117 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 917 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
WV Imagery indicates a strong upper level trough of low pressure
shifting eastward across the Four Corners Region. Near the surface,
a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across extreme
eastern Colorado.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
The greatest impacts weather-wise today will be convective chances
as early as mid afternoon in the far western sections of the
forecast area. A relative low cape and high shear environment will
be favorable for a developing line of storms as the convection
develops over extreme eastern Colorado and moves east into a richer
low level moisture environment. Several of the convective allowing
models including the WRF ARW/4km NAM support the HRRR in this
general solution, although the HRRR could be developing convection a
little too fast in the early afternoon. The main threats will likely
center on severe thunderstorms wind gusts given any momentum
transport in an already windy environment expected late this
afternoon. Abundant insolation today and starting out relatively
mild in the low 50s/upper 40s will aid in a rapid warming into the
60s by this afternoon.
The next issue will be just how much of an impact winds and
deformation zone precipitation have of the area heading into
Tuesday. Between the ECMWF/GFS/NAM family of models, extremely large
variances have been seen in total snow output, although given the
pattern the lower NAM model QPF and snow totals seem most reasonable
at this point. The best frontogenetic forcing and colder air for
dendritic growth should be farther north near NW KS, and drier
boundary layer air will need to be overcome in sw KS for anything
more than minor snow amounts to be considered. That being said,
strong gradient wind could create some travel impact even with a
couple of inches of snow in the extreme western counties.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
The rest of the forecast period looks relatively dry and seasonal as
far as temperatures go. As the upper low shifts off the east
Wednesday, another wave drops through the Northern Plains in it`s
heels. However the central High plains region appears to remain
under westerly zonal to slight northwesterly flow aloft until the
next baroclinic zone enters the region from the northwest next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
Low level stratus will persist across central Kansas through
this evening resulting in potential periodic MVFR cigs to KHYS.
Meanwhile, thunderstorms will develop across the panhandles of
Texas and Oklahoma late this afternoon with storms spreading
northeast into portions of southwest and central Kansas into
this evening...potentially affecting all TAF sites. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected during the overnight hours. Gusty
south winds around 20 to 35kt will persist across western Kansas
through late this afternoon as a strong lee side trough of low
pressure remains anchored across extreme eastern Colorado. Winds
will then subside and become more variable this evening as the
surface trough develops into a low pressure center and begins to
edge eastward across western Kansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 40 45 30 / 70 80 60 40
GCK 68 38 40 30 / 70 70 70 40
EHA 67 37 37 32 / 40 50 70 30
LBL 69 38 41 33 / 70 70 60 30
HYS 68 43 46 31 / 70 80 60 50
P28 68 46 55 34 / 60 80 30 30
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
918 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 917 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
WV Imagery indicates a strong upper level trough of low pressure
shifting eastward across the Four Corners Region. Near the surface,
a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across extreme
eastern Colorado.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
The greatest impacts weather-wise today will be convective chances
as early as mid afternoon in the far western sections of the
forecast area. A relative low cape and high shear environment will
be favorable for a developing line of storms as the convection
develops over extreme eastern Colorado and moves east into a richer
low level moisture environment. Several of the convective allowing
models including the WRF ARW/4km NAM support the HRRR in this
general solution, although the HRRR could be developing convection a
little too fast in the early afternoon. The main threats will likely
center on severe thunderstorms wind gusts given any momentum
transport in an already windy environment expected late this
afternoon. Abundant insolation today and starting out relatively
mild in the low 50s/upper 40s will aid in a rapid warming into the
60s by this afternoon.
The next issue will be just how much of an impact winds and
deformation zone precipitation have of the area heading into
Tuesday. Between the ECMWF/GFS/NAM family of models, extremely large
variances have been seen in total snow output, although given the
pattern the lower NAM model QPF and snow totals seem most reasonable
at this point. The best frontogenetic forcing and colder air for
dendritic growth should be farther north near NW KS, and drier
boundary layer air will need to be overcome in sw KS for anything
more than minor snow amounts to be considered. That being said,
strong gradient wind could create some travel impact even with a
couple of inches of snow in the extreme western counties.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
The rest of the forecast period looks relatively dry and seasonal as
far as temperatures go. As the upper low shifts off the east
Wednesday, another wave drops through the Northern Plains in it`s
heels. However the central High plains region appears to remain
under westerly zonal to slight northwesterly flow aloft until the
next baroclinic zone enters the region from the northwest next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
Area of IFR ceilings east of highway 183 this morning continues to
erode and/or lift in response to a deepening lee trough turning
winds enough to push slightly drier air into western KS.
Otherwise, attention then shifts toward late this afternoon to
evening as a strong upper wave plows into the Great Plains. This
will allow a line of thunderstorms to develop rapidly near the
Colorado border and then move quickly east into central KS by
evening. Given the expected wide swath of these storms, have
maintained reference of storms in the DDC, GCK, and HYS
terminals.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 40 45 30 / 30 60 60 40
GCK 68 38 40 30 / 50 30 70 40
EHA 67 37 37 32 / 50 30 70 30
LBL 69 38 41 33 / 50 20 60 30
HYS 68 43 46 31 / 30 60 60 50
P28 68 46 55 34 / 40 70 30 30
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...AJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
554 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
The greatest impacts weather-wise today will be convective chances
as early as mid afternoon in the far western sections of the
forecast area. A relative low cape and high shear environment will
be favorable for a developing line of storms as the convection
develops over extreme eastern Colorado and moves east into a richer
low level moisture environment. Several of the convective allowing
models including the WRF ARW/4km NAM support the HRRR in this
general solution, although the HRRR could be developing convection a
little too fast in the early afternoon. The main threats will likely
center on severe thunderstorms wind gusts given any momentum
transport in an already windy environment expected late this
afternoon. Abundant insolation today and starting out relatively
mild in the low 50s/upper 40s will aid in a rapid warming into the
60s by this afternoon.
The next issue will be just how much of an impact winds and
deformation zone precipitation have of the area heading into
Tuesday. Between the ECMWF/GFS/NAM family of models, extremely large
variances have been seen in total snow output, although given the
pattern the lower NAM model QPF and snow totals seem most reasonable
at this point. The best frontogenetic forcing and colder air for
dendritic growth should be farther north near NW KS, and drier
boundary layer air will need to be overcome in sw KS for anything
more than minor snow amounts to be considered. That being said,
strong gradient wind could create some travel impact even with a
couple of inches of snow in the extreme western counties.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
The rest of the forecast period looks relatively dry and seasonal as
far as temperatures go. As the upper low shifts off the east
Wednesday, another wave drops through the Northern Plains in it`s
heels. However the central High plains region appears to remain
under westerly zonal to slight northwesterly flow aloft until the
next baroclinic zone enters the region from the northwest next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
Area of IFR ceilings east of highway 183 this morning continues to
erode and/or lift in response to a deepening lee trough turning
winds enough to push slightly drier air into western KS.
Otherwise, attention then shifts toward late this afternoon to
evening as a strong upper wave plows into the Great Plains. This
will allow a line of thunderstorms to develop rapidly near the
Colorado border and then move quickly east into central KS by
evening. Given the expected wide swath of these storms, have
maintained reference of storms in the DDC, GCK, and HYS
terminals.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 40 45 30 / 30 60 60 40
GCK 68 38 40 30 / 50 30 70 40
EHA 67 37 37 32 / 50 30 70 30
LBL 69 38 41 33 / 50 20 60 30
HYS 68 43 46 31 / 30 60 60 50
P28 68 46 55 34 / 40 70 30 30
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...AJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
341 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
The greatest impacts weather-wise today will be convective chances
as early as mid afternoon in the far western sections of the
forecast area. A relative low cape and high shear environment will
be favorable for a developing line of storms as the convection
develops over extreme eastern Colorado and moves east into a richer
low level moisture environment. Several of the convective allowing
models including the WRF ARW/4km NAM support the HRRR in this
general solution, although the HRRR could be developing convection a
little too fast in the early afternoon. The main threats will likely
center on severe thunderstorms wind gusts given any momentum
transport in an already windy environment expected late this
afternoon. Abundant insolation today and starting out relatively
mild in the low 50s/upper 40s will aid in a rapid warming into the
60s by this afternoon.
The next issue will be just how much of an impact winds and
deformation zone precipitation have of the area heading into
Tuesday. Between the ECMWF/GFS/NAM family of models, extremely large
variances have been seen in total snow output, although given the
pattern the lower NAM model QPF and snow totals seem most reasonable
at this point. The best frontogenetic forcing and colder air for
dendritic growth should be farther north near NW KS, and drier
boundary layer air will need to be overcome in sw KS for anything
more than minor snow amounts to be considered. That being said,
strong gradient wind could create some travel impact even with a
couple of inches of snow in the extreme western counties.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
The rest of the forecast period looks relatively dry and seasonal as
far as temperatures go. As the upper low shifts off the east
Wednesday, another wave drops through the Northern Plains in it`s
heels. However the central High plains region appears to remain
under westerly zonal to slight northwesterly flow aloft until the
next baroclinic zone enters the region from the northwest next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
Broad low level moisture transport across the central plains will
remain in place during the TAF period. The scattered showers should
be ending over the next few hours with gradually increasing ceilings
by early Monday morning. The next strong wave approaches the
region tomorrow night as the convective allowing models begin to
favor a broken line of convection developing around the Colorado
line and morning east. Convection chances were included in all the
terminals from very late Monday through Monday evening. Windy
conditions will affect the terminals through much of the day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 40 45 30 / 30 60 60 40
GCK 68 38 40 30 / 50 30 70 40
EHA 67 37 37 32 / 50 30 70 30
LBL 69 38 41 33 / 50 40 60 30
HYS 68 43 46 31 / 30 60 60 50
P28 68 46 55 34 / 40 70 30 30
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
212 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOW 60S OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA. CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED THE RISE IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT
EVEN THERE WE ARE SEEING A LATE DAY SURGE AS THEY ARE NOW
APPROACHING 60 DESPITE THE CLOUDS. OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
STILL LOOKING AT SOME SPRINKLES MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE
AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION
TRENDS. THIS LED TO SOME FINE TUNING OF THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
CURVES AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE LOW AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS
DESCENDED TO THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS. 7 AM KY MESONET OBSERVATIONS
FROM BLACK MTN IN HARLAN COUNTY AT 4031 FEET HAD A DEWPOINT OF -5F
WHILE THE DEWPOINT AT THE PIKE COUNTY MESONET IN THE FLATWOODS
AREA NEAR DORTON AT 2774 FT MSL WAS 14. AS MIXING
OCCURS...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE AREA AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN.
6Z GFS AND NAM AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO CONTINUE
SUPPORT AT LEAST SPRINKLES LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING FORM SW
TO NE AS MID LEVELS MOISTEN. THE 6Z GFS AND THE MOST RECENT HRRR
RUN HAS SOME VERY LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND
REGION AND THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH JUST THE SPRINKLE CHANCES AND MONITOR MODEL AND
UPSTREAM OBSERVATION TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE POP INCREASE LATE
TODAY OR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE
ATLANTIC BACK TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE GULF COAST REGION NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MS VALLEY. FURTHER WEST A LARGE UNPHASED TROUGH
ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE MS RIVER. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN KY OVER THE
UPSTATE SC/NE GA AREA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMMENCING. A SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AS IT NEARS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS CLOSED LOW SHOULD MOVE RATHER QUICKLY EAST
NORTHEAST REACHING THE PLAINS OF EASTERN CO/WESTERN NB BY DAWN ON
TUESDAY.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS THIS
OCCURS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE
SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY REACHING CENTRAL NB BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDING AND ALSO CENTERED OVER NB
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THAT POINT...THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARC NORTH AND THEN SOUTH TO A TRIPLE POINT OVER
SOUTHERN MO WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO FL AND A
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH AND NEARING THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT THAT
POINT.
AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE NEARS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE OCCURRING
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOISTENING UP OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SATURATING TO OCCUR DOWN TO NEAR 800 MB
OR POSSIBLY LOWER BRIEFLY THIS EVENING. THICKENING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS WILL RESULT TODAY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AT
THIS POINT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SPRINKLES APPEAR POSSIBLE STARTING LATE TODAY IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SPRINKLES SHOULD END BY THE 6Z TO 9Z PERIOD...OR PREDAWN HOURS ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH A WARMER START COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES MILDER
THAN SUNDAY ON AVERAGE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO MIN HUMIDITIES OF 25 PERCENT
OR LOWER ACROSS THAT REGION WITH 25 TO 35 PERCENT ANTICIPATED
ACROSS NEARLY ALL THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WE PLAN TO CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS LOW MIN RH IN THE HWO. THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED ENOUGH THAT EITHER
PRIOR TO THE MID CLOUDS ARRIVING OR AFTER THEY DEPART FOR EASTERN
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO MAKE A QUICK RUN TOWARD 40 OR THE UPPER 30S.
TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALTHOUGH
SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO EVEN MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY. CIRRUS SHOULD BE
RATHER EXTENSIVE AS WELL AND A FEW CU OR MID CLOUDS MAY ALSO PASS
BY FROM TIME TO TIME...SO SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO START THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHILE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO HAVE A
SURFACE LOW COINCIDING WITH IT...THEN A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE GULF. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY PHASES INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM...THE SURFACE LOW
EJECTS NORTH INTO CANADA INTO A STRONG 970 LOW. THE TRAILING FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STUCK QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
OVERALL IN TERMS OF POPS. IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMOUNTS GIVEN PWATS
REMAINING IN THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE AND STRONG JET STREAK AT
850MB...AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300MB JET JUST TO THE WEST
WILL YIELD PLENTY ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD 1 INCH AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GREATER AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 75 AND LESSER AS YOU MOVE EAST TOWARD PIKE COUNTY. THE
STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH MANY SPOTS SEEING AT
LEAST SOME 20 MPH GUSTS.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CLOSED LOW PHASES AND WE END UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY OF THE STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL
MAKE FOR QUITE THE DIFFERENCES PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS.
RIGHT NOW GOING WITH GOOD RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN
850 TEMPS BELOW FREEZING...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND POSSIBILITY OF
HIGH POSITIONED OVER AREA BASED ON GFS. THOSE FACTORS WILL LEAD
TO DECOUPLING AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S VALLEYS OVER THE HIGHER
SUPERBLEND NUMBERS. AFTER THIS WE SEE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
OVERALL WITH MODELS BY THE LATE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF BUILDS A
STRONG 1028 SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION AND THE GFS BRINGS
SHORTWAVE THOUGH EAST THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND
SEEMS A BIT HIGH POP WISE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND VASTLY
DIFFERING FEATURES...SO SLACKED OFF AND WENT TOWARD LOWEST END
SLIGHT POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AND COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
717 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION
TRENDS. THIS LED TO SOME FINE TUNING OF THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
CURVES AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE LOW AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS
DESCENDED TO THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS. 7 AM KY MESONET OBSERVATIONS
FROM BLACK MTN IN HARLAN COUNTY AT 4031 FEET HAD A DEWPOINT OF -5F
WHILE THE DEWPOINT AT THE PIKE COUNTY MESONET IN THE FLATWOODS
AREA NEAR DORTON AT 2774 FT MSL WAS 14. AS MIXING
OCCURS...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE AREA AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN.
6Z GFS AND NAM AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO CONTINUE
SUPPORT AT LEAST SPRINKLES LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING FORM SW
TO NE AS MID LEVELS MOISTEN. THE 6Z GFS AND THE MOST RECENT HRRR
RUN HAS SOME VERY LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND
REGION AND THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH JUST THE SPRINKLE CHANCES AND MONITOR MODEL AND
UPSTREAM OBSERVATION TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE POP INCREASE LATE
TODAY OR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE
ATLANTIC BACK TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE GULF COAST REGION NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MS VALLEY. FURTHER WEST A LARGE UNPHASED TROUGH
ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE MS RIVER. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN KY OVER THE
UPSTATE SC/NE GA AREA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMMENCING. A SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AS IT NEARS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS CLOSED LOW SHOULD MOVE RATHER QUICKLY EAST
NORTHEAST REACHING THE PLAINS OF EASTERN CO/WESTERN NB BY DAWN ON
TUESDAY.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS THIS
OCCURS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE
SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY REACHING CENTRAL NB BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDING AND ALSO CENTERED OVER NB
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THAT POINT...THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARC NORTH AND THEN SOUTH TO A TRIPLE POINT OVER
SOUTHERN MO WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO FL AND A
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH AND NEARING THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT THAT
POINT.
AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE NEARS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE OCCURRING
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOISTENING UP OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SATURATING TO OCCUR DOWN TO NEAR 800 MB
OR POSSIBLY LOWER BRIEFLY THIS EVENING. THICKENING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS WILL RESULT TODAY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AT
THIS POINT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SPRINKLES APPEAR POSSIBLE STARTING LATE TODAY IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SPRINKLES SHOULD END BY THE 6Z TO 9Z PERIOD...OR PREDAWN HOURS ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH A WARMER START COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES MILDER
THAN SUNDAY ON AVERAGE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO MIN HUMIDITIES OF 25 PERCENT
OR LOWER ACROSS THAT REGION WITH 25 TO 35 PERCENT ANTICIPATED
ACROSS NEARLY ALL THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WE PLAN TO CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS LOW MIN RH IN THE HWO. THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED ENOUGH THAT EITHER
PRIOR TO THE MID CLOUDS ARRIVING OR AFTER THEY DEPART FOR EASTERN
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO MAKE A QUICK RUN TOWARD 40 OR THE UPPER 30S.
TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALTHOUGH
SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO EVEN MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY. CIRRUS SHOULD BE
RATHER EXTENSIVE AS WELL AND A FEW CU OR MID CLOUDS MAY ALSO PASS
BY FROM TIME TO TIME...SO SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO START THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHILE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO HAVE A
SURFACE LOW COINCIDING WITH IT...THEN A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE GULF. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY PHASES INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM...THE SURFACE LOW
EJECTS NORTH INTO CANADA INTO A STRONG 970 LOW. THE TRAILING FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STUCK QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
OVERALL IN TERMS OF POPS. IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMOUNTS GIVEN PWATS
REMAINING IN THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE AND STRONG JET STREAK AT
850MB...AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300MB JET JUST TO THE WEST
WILL YIELD PLENTY ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD 1 INCH AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GREATER AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 75 AND LESSER AS YOU MOVE EAST TOWARD PIKE COUNTY. THE
STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH MANY SPOTS SEEING AT
LEAST SOME 20 MPH GUSTS.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CLOSED LOW PHASES AND WE END UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY OF THE STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL
MAKE FOR QUITE THE DIFFERENCES PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS.
RIGHT NOW GOING WITH GOOD RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN
850 TEMPS BELOW FREEZING...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND POSSIBILITY OF
HIGH POSITIONED OVER AREA BASED ON GFS. THOSE FACTORS WILL LEAD
TO DECOUPLING AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S VALLEYS OVER THE HIGHER
SUPERBLEND NUMBERS. AFTER THIS WE SEE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
OVERALL WITH MODELS BY THE LATE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF BUILDS A
STRONG 1028 SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION AND THE GFS BRINGS
SHORTWAVE THOUGH EAST THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND
SEEMS A BIT HIGH POP WISE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND VASTLY
DIFFERING FEATURES...SO SLACKED OFF AND WENT TOWARD LOWEST END
SLIGHT POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART. SOME CIRRUS
WILL CROSS THE AREA INITIALLY...BUT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
LATER TODAY AND CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT 19Z TO 6Z ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA TO INCLUDE SME...LOZ AND SYM. THIS...
HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING CIGS BELOW 6KFT OR VIS BELOW
6SM. CIGS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10KFT OR HIGHER AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1006 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
EVERYTHING PLAYING OUT QUITE WELL ASIDE FROM SOME TWEAKING HERE
AND THERE. WINDS GUSTING A LITTLE STRONGER IN SPOTS AND AS USUAL
THE CHANCES FOR SEEING RAIN/TIMING/LOCATION ALL SEEING SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. STILL SEE WING OF BETTER CORE OF WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND STRONGER FORCING WORKING NORTHWARD THROUGH 06-07Z
THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WHILE LINGERING CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
RESIDE ALONG THE NW LOWER COUNTIES AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF EASTERN
UPPER. DEEPER DRIER AIR STILL SLATED TO SWING UP ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA...SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH JUST SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD....ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW LOWER THROUGH
INDIANA.
DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY WORKS IT`S WAY INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH PERIODIC
RAIN/LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED.
THE MOST INTERESTING THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE
STRONG WIND THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING JUST ABOVE THE SFC...WILL
MIX DOWN WITH/BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT FOR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MANISTEE/GTV BAY AREA. SOME DATA SUGGEST WIND
ADVISORIES COULD BE MET...WHILE OTHER DATA FALLS SHORT. WILL
OBVIOUSLY BE TAKING A LOOK AT NEW DATA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
SE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WELL
IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION WITHIN MOIST WAA PATTERN. GULF IS WIDE OPEN AHEAD OF
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...TAPPING INTO DEEP MOISTURE WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO TELL THE TALE...SHOWING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM ERN TEXAS THRU MISSOURI...
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NORTHWARD INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA. WISCONSIN
HAS BEGUN TO GET IN ON THE ACTION...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP NOW THRU MUCH OF SRN AND WRN WISCONSIN. THIS
LEADING EDGE WILL PUSH NE INTO OUR CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.
DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND RATHER DRY SE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
TENDED TO ERODE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AS IT TRIES TO
PUSH NE INTO OUR CWA. PERSISTENT DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL FINALLY GIVE
WAY TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP PUSHING INTO OUR REGION FROM SW TO NE THRU
EARLY EVENING. NAM12...RAP13 AND HRRR ALL SUGGEST HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. ALL MODELS ALSO STILL SUGGEST A
LULL IN THE ACTION OVERNIGHT AS A SURGE OF DRIER AIR PUSHES THRU LWR
MICHIGAN. AGAIN...HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN WEST AS WELL AS
ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN WHERE THE ERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL HOLD ON. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POP FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...INCLUDING TIMING AND AMOUNT. BUT OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS...WITH HIGHEST POPS WEST AND A SIGNIFICANT DIMINISH
IN POPS OVERNIGHT. CERTAINLY NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH PLENTY OF
WARM AIR SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.
GUSTY SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL ACTUALLY FURTHER STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE LOW LISTS INTO
MINNESOTA. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PART OF OUR CWA TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE CONCERNS ON THE BIG WATERS.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: BIG CHANGES...WITH MORE
REALISTIC NOVEMBER WEATHER SET TO RETURN BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.
IMPETUS BEHIND SUCH CHANGES IS DEEP SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY DIGGING IN BEHIND IT...WILL PLOW A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT
AND ATTENDANT WIND/RAIN EVENT THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL POST FRONTAL SURGE OF CAA IS NOT TOO
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS. HOWEVER...AS NORTHERN
ENERGY AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT BECOME INCREASINGLY INVOLVED BY
FRIDAY...WOULD EXPECT CONDITIONS TO HAVE A MUCH MORE WINTRY FEEL TO
THEM (AND PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
THE WEEKEND...SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW FOR THOSE DETAILS).
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
(COVERAGE/TIMING/TYPE) AND WIND IMPACTS RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST.
DETAILS: LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY (AT LEAST FOR A WHILE) AS AREA
REMAINS IS DEEP SOUTH FLOW WILL OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING MINNESOTA LOW
PRESSURE AND APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT. MOISTURE PROFILES RATHER
REMARKABLE...UP NEAR 1.25 INCHES...WHICH IS IN RECORD SETTING
TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WAVE OPENING UP
JUST TO OUR WEST...OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY STRUNG OUT THROUGH THE DAY...WITH TWO CENTERS OF
HEAVIEST RAINS...ONE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST COLLOCATED WITH BEST MID
LEVEL SUPPORT...AND ONE WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTH IN VICINITY OF RER
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND BETTER FORCED LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
NOW...WITH ALL THAT SAID...SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS OCCLUDED FRONT WORKS OVER OVERHEAD MOIST
AIRMASS...BUT JUST NOT SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS
(DESPITE THE RECORD AVAILABLE MOISTURE). OTHER STORY WILL BE FAIRLY
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH OVERHEAD GRADIENT AND BUFKIT DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS AOA 30.
OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH AGGRESSIVE MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT ENDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST.
INITIAL POST-FRONT AIRMASS LOOKS A TOUCH TOO WARM FOR ANY LAKE
CONTRIBUTION...ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS PRIMARY COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS INITIAL SHOT OF CAA DOES SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT SHORELINE AREAS. NAM-WRF PARTICULARLY
ROBUST...SHOWING NICE LOW LEVEL JET CORE OF 45 KNOTS...AND GOOD
PORTION OF WHICH IS ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GALES LOOK A
CERTAINTY (SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW)...AND DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
FOR LOW END WIND ADVISORY GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MACKINAC COUNTY
SHORELINE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. TOO EARLY WITH TOO MUCH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY FOR
ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY HEADLINE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE.
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES DEFINITELY TREND
COLD ENOUGH (H8 TEMPS FALLING TO THE NEGATIVE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) FOR SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION
TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY TARGETING THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. SYNOPTIC MOISTURE PROFILES NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH
BETTER MOISTURE CONFINED TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND POINTS NORTH. INITIAL
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL TREND TOWARDS ALL SNOW BY LATER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE...WITH FLOW TRAJECTORIES NOT TARGETING THE INTERIOR
COLDER HIGHLANDS. STILL...SUPPOSE SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TIP OF THE MITT AND UP INTO THE STRAITS
REGION OF EASTERN UPPER.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND AN INCOMING WAVE FROM
THE PLAINS...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT TO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WILL START BY MENTIONING THAT THERE IS A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY TIMEFRAME AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH ON SOLUTIONS. WILL GO
AHEAD AND COVER SEVERAL FEASIBLE SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT...BUT FULLY
EXPECT SEVERAL MORE FLIP-FLOPS UNTIL AFTER THE WAVE STARTS GETTING
SAMPLED AFTER IT MAKES ITS WAY ON LAND FROM THE PACIFIC.
TWO DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES COULD POTENTIALLY PLAY OUT AT THIS POINT.
SCENARIO 1 FOLLOWS ALONG THE LINES OF THE 17/12Z GFS AND THE 17/12Z
ECMWF. THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
RATHER QUICKLY SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING FOR HEIGHTS TO
REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP TROUGHING
EXPECTED TO SURGE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS...THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH IL/SOUTHERN MI BRINGING A DEEPENING SFC LOW THROUGH SRN
MI/THUMB IN WHAT COULD POTENTIALLY PLAY OUT AS A SNOWY WEEKEND
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MI.
SCENARIO 2...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 17/12Z GEM...17/12Z UKMET AND
MANY 06Z & 12Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...LAGS THE DEPARTURE OF THE INITIAL
SYSTEM RESULTING IN ENERGY SHEARING OUT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
WITH THE SFC LOW TRAVELING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND A NEAR TO
COMPLETE MISS FOR SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ACROSS NRN MI.
BEYOND SUNDAY...COULD SEE BOUTS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS
TYPICAL AREAS AND PERHAPS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OR TWO (WITH ASSOCIATED
LIGHT PRECIP) SLIDING THROUGH WHAT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
...STRONG LLWS....
WAA REGIME OVERHEAD CONTINUES WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. MINIMAL MIXING TO THE SFC WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN LLWS ALL OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH
OF TOMORROW. AN OCCLUDED FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL HELP MIX DOWN THOSE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT TOO HIGH...FORECAST HAS ROUGHLY 34-36KT GUSTS...BUT WOULD LEAN
MORE TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS IF ANYTHING. THESE STRONGER
GUSTS NOT EXPECTED AT APN UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AN AREA OF ENHANCED WAA IS RESULTING IN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN THAT
WILL CROSS PRIMARILY THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS THROUGH 06Z...WHILE
ADDITIONAL WEAKER ENERGY THERE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SEEING MORE
RAIN THROUGH MORNING...BUT THE IDEA RIGHT NOW IS FOR THE CURRENT
BAND TO EXIT THROUGH 06Z (OUTSIDE SHOT AT MVFR) WITH SOLID VFR
CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THEN...ANOTHER BAND/SWATH OF
RAIN ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH MVFR CIGS A BETTER CHANCE. VSBYS NOT EXPECTED TO TAKE MUCH
OF A HIT...AT LEAST FROM A PREVAILING CONDITION PERSPECTIVE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL DEVELOP FOR ALL NEARSHORE AREAS
BY WEDNESDAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE THRU THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...PRODUCING A TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. WAVES OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE LOW...IMPACTING ALL NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ322.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DICKSON
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
700 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP S FLOW OVER
THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN A HI AMPLITUDE RDG ORIENTED FM JAMES BAY TO
THE SE CONUS AND AN UPR TROF IN THE PLAINS EXTENDING N OF A CUTOFF
H5 LO NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS STRONG S WIND BTWN THESE UPR
FEATURES...WITH 12Z H925 WINDS UP TO 40-45 KTS NOTED FM GRB INTO THE
LOWER-MID MS RIVER VALLEY...IS DRAWING SOME VERY MOIST AIR TOWARD
THE CWA. 12Z ROABS SHOW AN AREA OF PWAT BTWN 1.00 AND 1.50 INCH JUST
TO THE SW...AS MUCH AS 250-350 PCT OF NORMAL. THE 12Z APX RAOB DOES
SHOW AN AREA OF LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR IN NRN LOWER MI. SOME SCT
SHOWERS DID IMPACT MAINLY THE CENTRAL EARLIER...BUT ADVECTION OF
SOME LLVL DRY AIR FM THE DRY AIR SOURCE RELATED TO THE 12Z APX RAOB
TENDED TO DIMINISH THESE SHOWERS IN THE ABSENCE OF SGNFT DYNAMIC
FORCING SO FAR TO THE NE OF THE CLOSED LO IN THE SRN PLAINS. A
SHRTWV TRACKING N INTO MN IS CAUSING A MORE WDSPRD AREA OF SHOWERS
IN THAT AREA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS AND WINDS AS
UPR/SFC LO IN THE SRN PLAINS LIFTS TO THE N AND THRU MN ON WED.
ALTHOUGH THE UPR LO WL BE WEAKENING INTO WED AS THE DISTURBANCE
LIFTS TO THE N...THIS SHRTWV WL BEGIN PHASING THEN WITH ANOTHER
VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.
TNGT...UPR LO IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE N TO NEAR OMAHA BY 12Z
WED...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LO NEAR 990MB MOVING INTO MN. ALTHOUGH
MODELS SHOW SLOWLY FALLING HGTS AND HINT A WAVE OR TWO OF UPR
DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAY SWING N THRU THE AREA ACCOMPANYING
RELATIVELY WEAK SHRTWVS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...
ABSENCE OF PERSISTENT SGNFT DYNAMIC FORCING AND SOME LINGERING LLVL
DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT QPF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE DRY
AIR. LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST OF THESE DISTURBANCS WL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS EVNG. THE HEAVIEST RA SHOULD FALL OVER THE CENTRAL CWA
WHERE UPSLOPE SSE WINDS WL ACCENTUATE THE FORCING JUST TO THE W OF
THE DRIER LLVL AIR AND UNDER STRONGER H925 LLJ FLOW. WL GO WITH THE
HIEST CATEGORICAL POPS IN THIS AREA. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WL LIMIT
POPS/QPF OVER THE W. H925 WINDS WITHIN THE LLJ ARE FCST AS HI AS 40-
50KTS...BUT HIER STABILITY SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS UNDER THERMAL RDG WL
PREVENT THIS STRONG MOMENTUM FM MIXING TO THE SFC. STILL EXPECT
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS AS HI AS 30-35 MPH AT MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
INFLUX OF DEEP MSTR/UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW WL SUPPORT SOME FOG MAINLY
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL. EXPECT LTL DIURNAL TEMP
DROP...IN FACT TEMPS MAY RISE SLOWLY AS THE STEADY SSE WINDS ADVECT
WARMER/HIER PWAT AIR INTO THE AREA.
WED...AS LO PRES TRACKS FM MN INTO NW ONTARIO DURING THE AFTN...THE
WEAKENING CLOSED LO IS FCST TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING THRU
SCENTRAL CANADA...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING LO PRES CENTER TO THE NW
IN THE AFTN. UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY THE STRONG SSW FLOW AND SOME
DRY SLOTTING ON THE SE FLANK OF THE LO. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN
AREA OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF AN OCCLUDED FNT/BAND OF
HIER MID LVL RH...THE OVERALL DRY SLOTTING AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
PROGGED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE DAY WL LIMIT POPS AND QPF. FALLING
H85 TEMPS/SLOWLY DCRSG STABILITY IN THE AFTN AND APRCH OF PRES RISE
CENTER FM THE S MAY SUPPORT INCRSG SSW WIND GUSTS LATER IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
...VERY WINDY ON THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SUB 980MB LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN TO SUB 970MB BY TIME IT
REACHES SOUTHWEST HUDSON BAY BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THIS DEEPENING
OF SFC LOW OCCURS AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES WITH WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. EXPECT
RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO BE ISOLD IN COVERAGE DUE TO
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAK FORCING OVERALL. OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT H85-H7 MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL PVA
FM TROUGH NEARING FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS INCREASE
BUT LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM SHOULD PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LOW LIFTING INTO ONTARIO CROSSES WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AROUND
MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT...CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT TO AROUND
DAYBREAK ON THU...AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WINDS IN LOW-LEVELS STAY FM THE W-SW SO
ONLY LAKE EFFECT OF NOTE WOULD BE OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY ON FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN MAINLY INTO
FAR EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN /APX CWA/.
BIG ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PRECIP OR SNOW /AT
LEAST INITIALLY/...BUT WINDS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS ALOFT 30-45 KTS/UP TO
45MPH...STRONGEST OVER LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. DUE
TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
PROFILE...SOLID PORTION OF THESE WINDS SHOULD MIX TO SFC IN FREQUENT
GUSTS. GFS IS MORE ON THE HIGHER END IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF WINDS
ALOFT...DUE TO STRONGER SFC LOW OVER HUDSON BAY COMPARED TO THE NAM.
GFS DOES LOOK SIMILAR TO ECMWF/GEM-NH IN PLACEMENT OF THE LOW ON THU
BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH INTENSITY. THUS...PROBABLY WILL NOT GO
COMPLETELY WITH GFS REALLY STRONG WINDS IDEA ATTM. RESULT WILL BE
ADVY SW WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WEST...ESPECIALLY ON THE KEWEENAW.
WINDY BUT STAYING BLO ADVY ELSEWHERE. NO MATTER HOW YOU LOOK AT IT
THOUGH...A VERY WINDY AND MUCH COLDER DAY IN STORE ON THU.
SFC TROUGH CROSSES LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN ON THU NIGHT WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE W THAN SW. H85 TEMPS BY LATER THU NIGHT WILL BE
DOWN TO -12C OR LOWER. WITH WATER TEMPS AROUND 5-6C PER LATEST GLERL
ANALYSIS...OVER-WATER INSTABILITY IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE
EFFECT. WEST WINDS FAVOR KEWEENAW FOR MOST OF LAKE EFFECT SOUNDINGS
DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARY FAVORABLE THOUGH AS THEY SHOW INVERTED V
PROFILE WITH CLOUD BASE AROUND H85/3KFT EVEN DURING THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING WHEN SHOULD SEE MORE MOISTENING IN LOWEST-LEVELS. LIKELY
TROUBLE IS WEST WINDS STAY 30-40KTS...CUTTING DOWN ON RESIDENCE TIME
AND EFFECTIVE OVER WATER FETCH. TYPICALLY WITH WINDS THIS
STRONG...THE LAKE EFFECT DOES NOT END UP TOO EXTENSIVE ON KEWEENAW
WHEN LACKING ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MOISTURE SEEN DURING
A LAKE ENHANCEMENT SETUP. CAVEAOT FOR POSSIBLY MORE LAKE EFECT COULD
BE IF AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS BTWN ONTONAGON AND
CALUMET AS SFC WINDS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BECOME MORE WSW.
FAVORED TIME FOR THAT POTENTIAL WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER
MANTIOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THOUGH MAIN LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP/MAINLY SNOW/ WITH THAT SHORTWAVE
LIKELY WILL STAY SOUTH FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI TO THE OHIO
VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...PASSAGE OF THE WAVE
WILL BRING WINDS TO MORE OF A NW DIRECTION. NW WINDS WITH H85 TEMPS
AT LEAST -12C IF NOT -15C AND MOISTURE TO INVERSION H8-H7/8-10KFT
AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD COMBINE TO INCREASE LES FOR AREAS FAVORED
BY NW FLOW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS STAYING CYCLONIC THROUGH THIS TIME ALSO
WITH SFC RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND SFC LOW DEEPENING OVER
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THAT SFC LOW TRACKS
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF LES FOR N-NW FLOW AREAS AS WELL. WEAK LES
SHOULD PERSIST INTO SUN FOR NW WIND FAVORED AREAS. BY AFTN WINDS
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE W AND INVERSIONS FALL TO 3KFT...SO INTENSITY
SHOULD TAKE A BIT HIT. WINDS BECOME SW LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND LES SHOULD FINISH UP AT THAT POINT.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY EARLY THANKSGIVING WEEK BECOMES MORE WNW-NW.
SERIES OF WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK
TROUGH PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED. WILL SEE TEMPS MODERATE COMPARED TO
THE CHILLY/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THAT AFFECT THE AREA THU/FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...APPEARS WARMER AND UNETTLED WEATHER
COULD SET UP INTO THANKSGIVING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECTS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
SURGE OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT
IN MVFR CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR AT KIWD/KSAW TONIGHT. MOST
PERSISENT LOW CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KSAW WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID
LOW CIGS. AT KIWD...DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN SOME FLUCTUATION
BTWN MVFR AND IFR TONIGHT. AT KCMX...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE. AT ALL
TERMINALS...EXPECT LLWS THRU THE NIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40-55KT
OVER THE AREA. PASSAGE OF OCCLUDED FRONT WED AFTN WILL BRING
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KIWD/KCMX IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. AT
KSAW...CIGS MAY FALL TO LIFR PRIOR TO FROPA NEAR THE END OF THE FCST
PERIOD. WINDS WED WILL BE GUSTY TO 20-30KT AT KIWD/KCMX AND UP TO
NEAR 35KT AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A LO PRES CENTER MOVING N THRU THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND A HI PRES CENTER OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
RESULT IN SSE GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER THE NCENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THRU WED. A WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE LO
TRACK AND INFLUENCE OF TERRAIN WILL HOLD WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE UNDER GALE FORCE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AS
IT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND STAYS
STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY INTO FRIDAY. SE GALES AHEAD OF THE LOW
SHIFT TO THE WSW-W ON THU BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOLID
GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS THU AFTN INTO THU EVENING OVER CNTRL LK SUPERIOR AS TROUGH
CROSSES. WILL NOT ISSUE A STORM WATCH ATTM AS STORM FORCE WINDS
WOULD ONLY BE AROUND 3 HR IN DURATION AND NOT TOO WIDESPREAD. LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE STORM WATCH IF EXPECTATIONS ON WINDS
CHANGE.
WINDS DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT LIKELY
WILL REMAIN AT GALE FORCE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT FOR EASTERN SECTIONS.
WINDS WEAKEN FURTHER BLO 25 KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ221-
248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
651 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
SE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WELL
IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION WITHIN MOIST WAA PATTERN. GULF IS WIDE OPEN AHEAD OF
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...TAPPING INTO DEEP MOISTURE WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO TELL THE TALE...SHOWING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM ERN TEXAS THRU MISSOURI...
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NORTHWARD INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA. WISCONSIN
HAS BEGUN TO GET IN ON THE ACTION...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP NOW THRU MUCH OF SRN AND WRN WISCONSIN. THIS
LEADING EDGE WILL PUSH NE INTO OUR CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.
DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND RATHER DRY SE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
TENDED TO ERODE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AS IT TRIES TO
PUSH NE INTO OUR CWA. PERSISTENT DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL FINALLY GIVE
WAY TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP PUSHING INTO OUR REGION FROM SW TO NE THRU
EARLY EVENING. NAM12...RAP13 AND HRRR ALL SUGGEST HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. ALL MODELS ALSO STILL SUGGEST A
LULL IN THE ACTION OVERNIGHT AS A SURGE OF DRIER AIR PUSHES THRU LWR
MICHIGAN. AGAIN...HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN WEST AS WELL AS
ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN WHERE THE ERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL HOLD ON. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POP FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...INCLUDING TIMING AND AMOUNT. BUT OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS...WITH HIGHEST POPS WEST AND A SIGNIFICANT DIMINISH
IN POPS OVERNIGHT. CERTAINLY NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH PLENTY OF
WARM AIR SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.
GUSTY SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL ACTUALLY FURTHER STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE LOW LISTS INTO
MINNESOTA. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PART OF OUR CWA TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE CONCERNS ON THE BIG WATERS.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: BIG CHANGES...WITH MORE
REALISTIC NOVEMBER WEATHER SET TO RETURN BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.
IMPETUS BEHIND SUCH CHANGES IS DEEP SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY DIGGING IN BEHIND IT...WILL PLOW A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT
AND ATTENDANT WIND/RAIN EVENT THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL POST FRONTAL SURGE OF CAA IS NOT TOO
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS. HOWEVER...AS NORTHERN
ENERGY AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT BECOME INCREASINGLY INVOLVED BY
FRIDAY...WOULD EXPECT CONDITIONS TO HAVE A MUCH MORE WINTRY FEEL TO
THEM (AND PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
THE WEEKEND...SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW FOR THOSE DETAILS).
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
(COVERAGE/TIMING/TYPE) AND WIND IMPACTS RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST.
DETAILS: LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY (AT LEAST FOR A WHILE) AS AREA
REMAINS IS DEEP SOUTH FLOW WILL OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING MINNESOTA LOW
PRESSURE AND APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT. MOISTURE PROFILES RATHER
REMARKABLE...UP NEAR 1.25 INCHES...WHICH IS IN RECORD SETTING
TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WAVE OPENING UP
JUST TO OUR WEST...OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY STRUNG OUT THROUGH THE DAY...WITH TWO CENTERS OF
HEAVIEST RAINS...ONE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST COLLOCATED WITH BEST MID
LEVEL SUPPORT...AND ONE WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTH IN VICINITY OF RER
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND BETTER FORCED LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
NOW...WITH ALL THAT SAID...SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS OCCLUDED FRONT WORKS OVER OVERHEAD MOIST
AIRMASS...BUT JUST NOT SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS
(DESPITE THE RECORD AVAILABLE MOISTURE). OTHER STORY WILL BE FAIRLY
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH OVERHEAD GRADIENT AND BUFKIT DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS AOA 30.
OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH AGGRESSIVE MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT ENDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST.
INITIAL POST-FRONT AIRMASS LOOKS A TOUCH TOO WARM FOR ANY LAKE
CONTRIBUTION...ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS PRIMARY COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS INITIAL SHOT OF CAA DOES SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT SHORELINE AREAS. NAM-WRF PARTICULARLY
ROBUST...SHOWING NICE LOW LEVEL JET CORE OF 45 KNOTS...AND GOOD
PORTION OF WHICH IS ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GALES LOOK A
CERTAINTY (SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW)...AND DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
FOR LOW END WIND ADVISORY GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MACKINAC COUNTY
SHORELINE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. TOO EARLY WITH TOO MUCH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY FOR
ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY HEADLINE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE.
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES DEFINITELY TREND
COLD ENOUGH (H8 TEMPS FALLING TO THE NEGATIVE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) FOR SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION
TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY TARGETING THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. SYNOPTIC MOISTURE PROFILES NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH
BETTER MOISTURE CONFINED TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND POINTS NORTH. INITIAL
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL TREND TOWARDS ALL SNOW BY LATER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE...WITH FLOW TRAJECTORIES NOT TARGETING THE INTERIOR
COLDER HIGHLANDS. STILL...SUPPOSE SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TIP OF THE MITT AND UP INTO THE STRAITS
REGION OF EASTERN UPPER.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND AN INCOMING WAVE FROM
THE PLAINS...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT TO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WILL START BY MENTIONING THAT THERE IS A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY TIMEFRAME AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH ON SOLUTIONS. WILL GO
AHEAD AND COVER SEVERAL FEASIBLE SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT...BUT FULLY
EXPECT SEVERAL MORE FLIP-FLOPS UNTIL AFTER THE WAVE STARTS GETTING
SAMPLED AFTER IT MAKES ITS WAY ON LAND FROM THE PACIFIC.
TWO DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES COULD POTENTIALLY PLAY OUT AT THIS POINT.
SCENARIO 1 FOLLOWS ALONG THE LINES OF THE 17/12Z GFS AND THE 17/12Z
ECMWF. THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
RATHER QUICKLY SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING FOR HEIGHTS TO
REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP TROUGHING
EXPECTED TO SURGE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS...THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH IL/SOUTHERN MI BRINGING A DEEPENING SFC LOW THROUGH SRN
MI/THUMB IN WHAT COULD POTENTIALLY PLAY OUT AS A SNOWY WEEKEND
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MI.
SCENARIO 2...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 17/12Z GEM...17/12Z UKMET AND
MANY 06Z & 12Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...LAGS THE DEPARTURE OF THE INITIAL
SYSTEM RESULTING IN ENERGY SHEARING OUT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
WITH THE SFC LOW TRAVELING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND A NEAR TO
COMPLETE MISS FOR SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ACROSS NRN MI.
BEYOND SUNDAY...COULD SEE BOUTS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS
TYPICAL AREAS AND PERHAPS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OR TWO (WITH ASSOCIATED
LIGHT PRECIP) SLIDING THROUGH WHAT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
...STRONG LLWS....
WAA REGIME OVERHEAD CONTINUES WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. MINIMAL MIXING TO THE SFC WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN LLWS ALL OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH
OF TOMORROW. AN OCCLUDED FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL HELP MIX DOWN THOSE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT TOO HIGH...FORECAST HAS ROUGHLY 34-36KT GUSTS...BUT WOULD LEAN
MORE TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS IF ANYTHING. THESE STRONGER
GUSTS NOT EXPECTED AT APN UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AN AREA OF ENHANCED WAA IS RESULTING IN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN THAT
WILL CROSS PRIMARILY THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS THROUGH 06Z...WHILE
ADDITIONAL WEAKER ENERGY THERE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SEEING MORE
RAIN THROUGH MORNING...BUT THE IDEA RIGHT NOW IS FOR THE CURRENT
BAND TO EXIT THROUGH 06Z (OUTSIDE SHOT AT MVFR) WITH SOLID VFR
CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THEN...ANOTHER BAND/SWATH OF
RAIN ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH MVFR CIGS A BETTER CHANCE. VSBYS NOT EXPECTED TO TAKE MUCH
OF A HIT...AT LEAST FROM A PREVAILING CONDITION PERSPECTIVE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL DEVELOP FOR ALL NEARSHORE AREAS
BY WEDNESDAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE THRU THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...PRODUCING A TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. WAVES OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE LOW...IMPACTING ALL NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ322.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
346 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TO IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SPOTTIER SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS
BAND OF RAIN WHICH ARE MOVING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE U.P. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TRENDS
FOLLOWED BY MARINE ISSUES.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER FAR WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA
DURING THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SPOTTY
OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONGER FORCING DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WEAKENS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY NOT
MAKE IT INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA THOUGH.
SOUTHEAST WINDS CIRCULATING AROUND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC WILL KEEP A FEED OF DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR IN THIS
PORTION OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WITH A BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND...LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT WILL
BOOST PWATS THROUGH THE DAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UPPER PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING IN
A WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME. THEN THE NAM/GFS BRING IN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
STRENGTHENS DURING THIS TIME...WHICH ARGUES FOR HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FORM KANSAS TOWARDS WISCONSIN AND
BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST
TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EXTENT TO WITH PHASING OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY. THIS ALSO EFFECT
HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES AND HOW SOON LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BEGINS.
A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS WILL BRING LOTS OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA WITH THE PROSPECT OF SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA SHOULD RECEIVE THE BEST RAINS WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DESPITE THE
RAIN.
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND
SPEEDS QUICKLY TOWARDS JAMES BAY. IN FACT THE DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE AREA QUALIFIES AS EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS AND WILL PRODUCE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL PRODUCE STRONG WEST WINDS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 40 MPH LIKELY OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WITH 50 MPH WINDS OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS COMES MUCH COLDER AIR. 850MB TEMPERATURES
DROP TO -12C BY THURSDAY EVENING AND REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIND DIRECTION
AS IT WILL BE LARGELY WESTERLY...WHICH FAVORS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY THERE THURSDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE KEWEENAW WITH A FEW INCHES LIKELY OVER THE
COURSE OF A FEW DAYS.
THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING
MILDER AIR IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MVFR CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD BACK INTO WESTERN LOCATIONS INCLUDING IWD. AS RAIN SPREADS
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS OVER IWD. LTTLE IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED
AT 346 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SHORELINES EXPOSED TO WINDS FROM THESE DIRECTIONS WILL
SEE WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET DEVELOP...WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION...EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN WATERS WILL SEE NEAR GALE FORCE
GUSTS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS LOOK A LITTLE TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
GALES TO OCCUR HOWEVER.
THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD GALES ARE
LIKELY. NEAR STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SL/MPC
LONG TERM...RDM
AVIATION...MG
MARINE...MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1157 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON HAS PROVIDED CLEAR
SKIES TO MOST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST AND
CAUSES THE UPPER FLOW TO BACK TO SOUTHERLY. A SMALL AREA OF CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF DULUTH/SUPERIOR HAD SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS SINCE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN
COVERAGE. THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THE CLOUD WILL DIMINISH...BUT
EARLIER RUNS OF THE RAP INDICATED THE CLOUD WILL BE ABOUT GONE BY
NOW...BUT THAT HAS NOT OCCURRED. WE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THE
HEAD OF THE LAKE...THEN INCREASE ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT.
A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO
AROUND 0.75 INCHES OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA...THEN TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH
BY 00Z TUESDAY. THESE VALUES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUE REPORTED AT KINL ON NOVEMBER 16 OF 0.79
INCHES. WE EXPECT FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS
WELL...MAINLY LATE.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR CWA. WE ADDED
THE MENTION OF FOG TO ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT EXPECT IT TO
BE MOST WIDESPREAD AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A HALF
INCH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 IN THE ARROWHEAD AND TO
AROUND 40 FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
RISE LATE AS CLOUDS THICKEN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
FORTIES TO AROUND FIFTY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
N/NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A NEARLY CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG WAA IN THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH BROAD LARGE-SCALE LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LOW AND AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...PWATS AROUND
1 INCH...WILL ALLOW FOR AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS
TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
WEAK...BUT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. TWO WAVES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 100-
200 J/KG WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE REGION TUES AND WED...AND HELP
TRIGGER THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS.
AS THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH NRN MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED A
SECONDARY LOW FROM THE NW WILL PHASE WITH THE PARENT LOW AND ALSO
DRAW DOWN A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS TO CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE NE ACROSS ONTARIO WED
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT BE LACKING OF MOISTURE AND ONLY
BE CAPABLE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. AT THIS MOMENT IT
APPEARS ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MAY SEE AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES. THE PERSISTENT COLD NWLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
THE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 40S. THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THE AMT OF NIGHT
TIME COOLING. HOWEVER...THE COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS MOVING STEADILY TOWARDS THE TERMINALS AS OF
05Z...WITH LOW END VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z. THEN...RAIN SHOWERS TO ALSO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND BRING A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IN
IFR CONDITIONS SOME TIME BETWEEN 15Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. BEHIND
THE BAND OF RAIN LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 48 45 49 / 30 90 70 100
INL 36 49 45 49 / 10 60 70 80
BRD 42 51 47 51 / 20 70 80 90
HYR 34 51 45 51 / 20 70 70 100
ASX 33 52 44 53 / 20 70 70 90
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
647 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
RAIN HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW IN CAMBRIDGE LOCATED IN WESTERN
FURNAS COUNTY. THE 18Z NAM WAS INDICATING THAT A WARM LAYER
LOCATED AROUND 775 MB WOULD RAPIDLY COOL TO BELOW FREEZING WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION BAND BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. THIS COOLING IF IT
MATERIALIZES WOULD TURN THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW PRIOR TO 9 PM FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF AN ORD...KEARNEY...ALMA LINE. THE FACT THAT
CAMBRIDGE HAS TURNED OVER TO SNOW WOULD INDICATE THAT THE COOLING
OF THIS WARM LAYER IS NOW UNDERWAY AND EXPECT AN INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE ALREADY MENTIONED AREAS
SHORTLY. ONCE THE RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW THE SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 31 TO 33F RANGE AND SNOW WILL BEGIN
ACCUMULATING.
MOST OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE HASTINGS AND
GRAND ISLAND AREA...ALTHOUGH WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW LATE TONIGHT EVENTUALLY MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS GRAND ISLAND
AND HASTINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND POSITION OF A
POTENTIAL OF A DEFORMATION SNOW BAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE WIDE
VARIATIONS OF POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THAT THE CLOSED LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST INCLEMENT WEATHER WAS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER AND WILL EVENTUALLY PULL TO THE NORTHEAST.
WE ARE BASICALLY WAITING FOR SOME DYNAMIC COOLING TO OCCUR IN THE
ENTIRE COLUMN ABOVE THE SURFACE. UNTIL THEN...WE COULD FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST CWA. MODELS TEND TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY 9
PM...ENOUGH COOLING WILL OCCUR TO CHANGE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE WEST TO SNOW. WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES...THIS COULD MEAN A
RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT THE
DEFORMATION BAND COULD BE QUITE A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT. ALSO...OUR HIGHER QPF MIGHT OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN A VERY NARROW BAND. OUR MAJOR CONCERN IS WHERE THIS BAND
MAY PIVOT...WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER
DAWSON AND PERHAPS BUFFALO COUNTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY
HIGH WITH THIS. I EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
VALLEY...SHERMAN...BUFFALO...AND PHELPS COUNTY...ON TOP OF THE
ORIGINAL THREE IN OUR WEST. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WE COULD EVEN HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET BEFORE CHANGE
TO SNOW LATER THIS EVENING.
FARTHER EAST...NOT TOO MUCH SNOW IF ANY EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY NOT COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ALSO ANOTHER WRENCH THROWN IN IS ANOTHER PERTURBATION
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE CURRENT ONE THAT COULD GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...WE SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH THAT THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH AXIS...CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...FINALLY START TO SEE SOME RELIEF FROM
THE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER KS
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY KEEP 15 TO
20 MPH SPEEDS AROUND INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE MAIN SFC LOW SLIDING THROUGH PORTIONS OF ONTARIO AND UNDER A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY SPEEDS
LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS ON THURSDAY IS NOT
HIGH...ESP ACROSS THE WEST...WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED BY WHATEVER
SNOWFALL THEY GET THE REST OF TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
LOWER 40S IN THE NW...TO NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO AFFECT THE CWA AS WE GET
INTO FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED
LIFT VIA AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF
ACCUMULATION DUE TO ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE...BUT NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA COULD PICK UP AN INCH OF SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH /ROUGHLY I-80 AND
SOUTH/...WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN DAYTIME TEMPS...HAVE A RA OR RA/SN
MIX GOING.
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH
MON...REMAINS DRY. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY...UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH
THE GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A
CHANCE AT PRECIP AGAIN SUNDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME RUN TO RUN
SUPPORT /WASNT PRESENT IN THE 06Z RUN/ AND SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS
BEFORE INSERTING ANY POPS. EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND LOWER/MID 40S SUN...BEFORE
BUMPING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL /UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S/ FOR MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
MVFR...IFR...AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALL LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE GET INTO LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN IS LIKELY THIS EVENING AND WILL GRADUALLY
MIX WITH AND/OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY LATE EVENING. KEARNEY WILL
LIKELY GET SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...2-5 INCHES...WITH GRAND
ISLAND SEEING LESS AT A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ039-046-
060-061-072-073-082.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
535 AM PST MON NOV 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAINLY ACROSS MOHAVE, LINCOLN AND CLARK
COUNTIES FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WHICH WILL IMPACT
THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. NORTH BREEZES
WILL LINGER IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FOR TUESDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MODERATING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...THE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUED TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST EAST AND EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY UP THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL COLD POOL SHOWERS WERE DROPPING OUT OF LINCOLN COUNTY
OVER NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY AND MOVING TOWARD NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATED THESE TRENDS FAIRLY WELL. RECENT RADAR LOOPS
INDICATED PARTS OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND SPRING MOUNTAINS/SHEEP
RANGE MAY SEE A FEW MORE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE 8 AM BUT
CHANCES OF DIMINISHED FOR ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION. THE POP/WX
GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
THINGS HAVE MOISTENED UP CONSIDERABLY WHICH CREATES SOME ISSUES WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
HAVE MANAGED TO SNEAK UP TO JUST ABOVE 32 DEGREES. THUS INITIALLY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A COLD RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF CLARK,
MOHAVE AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ANY SHOT AT SNOW
AT THIS POINT WILL TAKE EITHER SOME DRYING WHICH WOULD LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND THEN IF WE SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WE COULD SEE
HAVE A SHOT A WET BULBING AND ACHIEVING SNOW OR THE MORE UNLIKELY
SCENARIO WHICH WOULD BE SOME SORT OF DYNAMIC COOLING ALTHOUGH GIVEN
THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WE ARE SEEING SEEMS A BIT
OF A STRETCH. AS A RESULT, I RAISED SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS MORNING
WHICH LESSENS GREATLY THE SHOT AT SNOW MUCH BELOW 3000-3500 FEET.
EVEN IN SOME OF THESE AREAS IT MAY BE IFFY, BUT IF ANY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION BURSTS OCCUR THERE WILL BE A SHOT AT IT. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING ENERGY BEHIND THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND
THAT HAS TO WORK ON THROUGH THAT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THESE
MAY HAVE BETTER BURSTING POTENTIAL WITH THEM TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE LEFT AS IS. FOR
LINCOLN COUNTY, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM THE HIGHWAY 93
CORRIDOR ON EAST FOR 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW AND IN MOHAVE COUNTY THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF I-40. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE GRAND CANYON PARASHANT NATIONAL MONUMENT WHICH
WILL BE OUR SO-CALLED LOLLIPOP ZONE OR SWEET SPOT WHERE 3-6 INCHES
COULD ACCUMULATE. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY
LATER THIS MORNING EXCEPT IN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER INTO MID-AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE HRRR, THE CURRENT POPS MAY
BE A BIT TOO DRAWN OUT ESPECIALLY WEST IF THE COLORADO RIVER AND
ACTIVITY MAY END EARLIER IN AREAS CLOSER TO LAS VEGAS.
THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT BY
LATER THIS MORNING AND A 90 KT+ JET AT 250 MB BECOMES ORIENTED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BELT
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE DIRECTLY OVER US. THESE WILL GET MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH WITH
A FEW AREAS OF 55-65 MPG GUSTS. THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD BE IN
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES WHICH TEND TO BLOW VERY WELL IN
THIS SET-UP AND IN THE MORONGO BASIN WHERE SOME FUNNELING TAKES
PLACE BETWEEN THE TERRAIN AND SOME ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO LIKELY OFF
THE SAN BERNARDINO RANGE. HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SPECIFIC AREAS WITH JUST ABOUT ALL OTHER AREAS UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY. WINDS WILL START TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LINGERING WINDS. AS A RESULT, I
CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE AS WINDS SHOULD
STIR UP THINGS ENOUGH TO HOLD UP TEMPS AND THUS AT THIS TIME NO
FREEZE HEADLINES LOOK NEEDED. THERE SHOULD BE SOME REVERSE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST OFF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS BUT THESE DO
NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO DRAG OUT THE WIND ADVISORIES FURTHER.
AFTER A COLD DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 12-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
TEMPS WILL MODERATE UP 5-8 DEGREES ON AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY. LINGERING
NORTH FLOW WILL STILL CREATE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR TUESDAY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, I
HELD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES OUT TO AVOID
CONFUSION. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A DRY DAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK UNDER A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB
SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY THEN A FEW MORE DEGREES EACH DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND MOJAVE DESERT
REGION BY FRIDAY.
THE OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH ANY SOLUTION DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
THE FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA SATURDAY THEN SLIDES IT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY ACT TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5 DEGREES. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS BECOME MORE APPARENT
BY MONDAY AS THE ECMWF DIGS A BROAD VERY COLD TROUGH INTO THE
NORTHWEST STATES AND WILL BE POISED TO CONTINUE DIGGING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN SOLUTION. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER
AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS COLD TROUGH...ESSENTIALLY KEEPING IT
OVER CANADA AND JUST BRUSHING THE NEARBY BORDER STATES. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS OVER THE WESTERN
STATES GOING INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
PASSING THROUGH THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY...WITH THE BAND OF ASSOCIATED
RAIN SHOWERS NOW OFF TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MORMON MESA CORRIDOR THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IN THE VALLEY. EXPECT CALMER
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE WIND DIRECTION GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS REMAIN LIKELY
THROUGH DAYBREAK. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 KTS
ALONG WITH 35-40 KT GUSTS UNDER IMPROVING CIGS. WINDS LOOK TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. MODERATE TO
SEVERE TURBULENCE DOWNSTREAM OF HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECT
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...PARTICULARLY AT KDAG AND KEED. EXPECT WINDS TO SHARPLY
DECREASE...AND CIGS TO DIMINISH WITH -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 15-25KTS SUSTAINED AND 25-35KT GUSTS. MODERATE TO
SEVERE TURBULENCE DOWNSTREAM OF HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE CIGS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. PATCHES
OF BLDU ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF DRY LAKE BEDS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR
AVIATION...PULLIN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
314 AM PST MON NOV 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEVADA. GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED. THERE
WILL BE NO SHORTAGE OF COLD AIR. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE INTO
THE 40S BY MID-WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON KLRX...THE PRECIP SHIELD
IS MOSTLY EAST OF ELKO...WHICH IS SECONDED BY THE LATEST IR IMAGE.
THE HRRR STILL HAS SOME FLURRIES FOR ELKO...BUT THE ACTIVITIY IS
DEFINITELY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA...TUESDAY WILL BE BRUTALLY COLD IN THE MORNING...BUT AS THE
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE LKN CWA...EXPECT UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 570 DAM. WEDNESDAY...WILL BE CHILLY IN THE MORNING AGAIN
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 40S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL DOMINATE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
LONG RANGE MODELS DO FAIRLY WELL GETTING ALONG THROUGH ABOUT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE. BY FRIDAY EVENING THERE
IS NO AGREEMENT. THE ONLY THING THAT GETS IMPLIED FOR THE WEEKEND IS
THAT...PERHAPS...SOME PRECIP MIGHT FALL IN NORTHERN NEVADA. HAVE
ADDED IN SOME HIGHER POPS TO SHOW THAT SOMETHING MIGHT HAPPEN...AND
TO COORDINATE WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICES. HAVE NO PERSONALLY
STRONG FEELINGS EITHER WAY ON THIS SITUATION. TIME WILL TELL.
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING FORECAST AS
WAS WITH POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN AREAS...MOSTLY SNOW...AND STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL TRANSLATE INTO BREEZY SPOTS AT TIMES.
TEMPS REMAIN COOL IN COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KELY AND KTPH AND
CONTINUES ON OUT. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS BRINGING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. EXPECT REDUCED VISBY
DUE TO SNOW/FOG BUT ALSO FROM BLOWING SNOW AT KELY AND KTPH AT TIMES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIP WILL EXIT KWMC SOON AND THEN KEKO
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO
COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY.
&&
$$
97/98/98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
1004 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY BEFORE DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MODERATING TREND DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...THE SMALL SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPLEX HAS SHIFTED TOWARD LINCOLN
COUNTY AT THE PRESENT. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
LOW HAS WORKED INTO MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE LARGER SCALE COMMA HEAD
HAS ELONGATED AND STRETCHED OUT. WE GOT A REPORT OF GRAUPEL COVERING
THE GROUND IN KINGMAN THIS EVENING AS HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION PASSED ON THROUGH. RECENTLY A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES POPPED UP UNDER THE SMALL SCALE LOW CENTER IN
LINCOLN COUNTY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ADDED INTO THE GRIDS
THERE FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF TONIGHT.
I MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES WE HAVE OUT AFTER LOOKING
AT SOME DATA THIS EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
LINCOLN COUNTY ABOVE 3500 FEET AS WE SHOULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH LOCALIZED 4 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS IN ANY HEAVIER BURSTS OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY FROM THE
HIGHWAY 93 CORRIDOR ON EAST. FURTHER WEST LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. I ALSO UPGRADED THE WIND
ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY
ZONE AS WELL AS THE MORONGO BASIN ZONE. POWERFUL NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT
AND A 90 KT+ JET AT 250 MB MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. MOS GUIDANCE FOR TPH CONTINUES TO SHOW 40 KT SUSTAINED
WINDS ON THE MAV WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST SET A FEW OF THE MORE PRONE
SENSORS ON THE NORTH END OF THE NEVADA NATIONAL SECURITY SITE TO HIT
AT LEAST 60 MPH FOR A GUST. FURTHER SOUTH, THERE MAY BE SOME GAP
FUNNELING BETWEEN THE MOUNTAINS THAT FAVORS AREAS OF 58 MPH OR
GREATER FOR GUSTS IN THE MORONGO BASIN AS THE WINDS GO WEST-
NORTHWEST JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LANDERS AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF YUCCA VALLEY WHERE WE GET
SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OFF THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD START
SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING BETWEEN 10 PM AND
2AM. THE DIRECTION WILL START SHIFTING MORE NORTHWEST AROUND 12Z
MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS SPOTTY
THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO ONLY MENTIONING VCSH IN THE FORECAST.
NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 KTS ALONG WITH 35-40 KT GUSTS. THE WIND
WILL START TO DIMINISH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE DOWNSTREAM OF HIGHER TERRAIN EXPECT TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE LIKELY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS INYO AND NYE COUNTIES WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA...EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM BARSTOW EAST TO KINGMAN. IN THIS SAME CORRIDOR WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 9 AM AND 11 AM MONDAY. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS COMMON. MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE DOWNSTREAM
OF HIGHER TERRAIN EXPECT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PATCHES OF
BLDU ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF DRY LAKE BEDS.
&&
.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR AND MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS WHAT IS A SMALL
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH
A COMMA SHAPED SIGNATURE NOTED ON IMAGERY. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS PUSHING
EAST ACROSS EASTERN CLARK COUNTY INTO MOHAVE COUNTY AND POPS WERE
INCREASED FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BAND AS
WELL AS ADDING IN THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. BEHIND THIS, THERE
IS A DEFINED BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION BUT ADDITIONAL BATCHES
OF SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY SO POPS WERE TWEAKED UP A BIT THERE.
ONE THING THE SHOWERS HAVE DONE IS MOISTENED UP THE ATMOSPHERE
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE TOP DOWN. DEWPOINTS ARE UP INTO THE 40S IN LAS
VEGAS WHICH IS A BIG BUST ON THE END OF GUIDANCE AND WHAT WE HAD IN
THE FORECAST SO THESE WERE TWEAKED. THIS CREATES TWO ISSUES. ONE IS
THAT WINDS ARE NOT REALLY GUSTING AS WE HAVE A LOT LESS DRY AIR AND
THERMAL CONTRAST TO WORK WITH AND WIND SPEEDS WERE LOWERED ACROSS
ALL AREAS THIS EVENING AND FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE ADVISORIES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WE WILL STILL GET THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AHEAD OF THE FRONT MY THOUGHT IS THAT ADVISORY
WINDS WILL BE LOCALIZED OUTSIDE OF THE OWENS VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING DUST WAS ALSO REMOVED
FROM MOST AREAS GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND.
THE SECOND CONCERN WITH THE EXTRA MOISTURE IS SNOW LEVELS. UNLESS WE
DRY OUT MORE, IT WILL BE TOUGHER TO GET SNOW DOWN FURTHER EVEN WHEN
WE WET BULB WITH DEWPOINTS INITIALLY WELL ABOVE 32 DEGREES. HOWEVER,
THE COLDER NATURE OF THE AIR MASS WILL DROP TEMPS SHARPLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. ON THE OTHER HAND, AT THAT POINT WE MAY SEE TEMPS DROP CLOSER
TO DEWPOINTS AND AS THESE PLUNGE THROUGH THE 30S PRECIP COULD HAVE
LESS OF A DRY LOW-LEVEL TO OVERCOME WHICH WOULD BETTER RESULT IN
SOMETHING REACHING THE GROUND.
THE LATEST GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. ANOTHER UPDATE
WILL FOLLOW LATER THIS EVENING IF NEED BE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 315 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS
BEGUN TO SPREAD ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL HIRES MODELS SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH SOUTHERN NEVADA
EARLY EVENING AND THEN INTO MOHAVE COUNTY BY LATE EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS BAND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6000 FEET...BUT AS IT REACHES MOHAVE COUNTY
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN THAT SNOW LEVELS
COULD DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY LATE EVENING. WITH THE EARLIER
TIMING IN PRECIPITATION DID GO AHEAD AND CHANGE THE START TIME OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOHAVE COUNTY FROM 3AM TO 10PM THIS
EVENING. STILL THINK THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE MOST OF THE
CRITICAL TRAVEL AREAS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
EARLIER ACCUMULATING SNOW.
WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING WINDS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. SO FAR WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND CLARK COUNTIES HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE...BUT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
INCREASING AND DO EXPECTED WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST IS MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA BETWEEN 10-12Z
MONDAY MORNING WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALSO DRAMATICALLY DROP SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
THE MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXCEPT FOR MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE DOWN TO 3000 FEET BY MID MORNING. THE BEST AREAS OF
SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE GRAND CANYON PARASHANT
NATIONAL MONUMENT WHERE AMOUNTS COULD REACH 6 INCHES. 2-3 INCHES
OVER COLORADO CITY AND PIPE SPRINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE IS A
CONCERN FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE VIRGIN RIVER GORGE
ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION FALLS AT A HEAVY ENOUGH RATE. AREAS TO
THE WEST SUCH AS CLARK...SOUTHERN NYE...AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DOWN TO 2000-
2500 FEET OR SO ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE
ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT MORE DYNAMIC. THERE COULD BE SOME CONCERNS FOR
AREAS SUCH AS MOUNTAIN PASS ON I-15 AND MOUNTAIN SPRINGS SUMMIT
BETWEEN LAS VEGAS AND PAHRUMP...BUT IF THERE ARE ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME THEY LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL RATHER
WINTERLIKE ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS OVER MOST AREAS...BUT SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES COULD
SEE WARNING LEVEL WINDS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE 20-30 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTHERLY BREEZES. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ENHANCE THOSE NORTHERLY BREEZES JUST A BIT
FOR FRIDAY, BUT NOTHING TOO STRONG. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES AT SOME
POINT, YET TIMING AND LOCATION ARE WAY OFF. EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS
LIKE A DRY WEEKEND FOR NOW. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT WILL
INCREASE AND BE 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
PUSHING 70 IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THEN PERHAPS A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
932 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY BEFORE DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MODERATING TREND DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...THE SMALL SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPLEX HAS SHIFTED TOWARD LINCOLN
COUNTY AT THE PRESENT. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
LOW HAS WORKED INTO MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE LARGER SCALE COMMA HEAD
HAS ELONGATED AND STRETCHED OUT. WE GOT A REPORT OF GRAUPEL COVERING
THE GROUND IN KINGMAN THIS EVENING AS HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION PASSED ON THROUGH. RECENTLY A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES POPPED UP UNDER THE SMALL SCALE LOW CENTER IN
LINCOLN COUNTY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ADDED INTO THE GRIDS
THERE FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF TONIGHT.
I MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES WE HAVE OUT AFTER LOOKING
AT SOME DATA THIS EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
LINCOLN COUNTY ABOVE 3500 FEET AS WE SHOULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH LOCALIZED 4 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS IN ANY HEAVIER BURSTS OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY FROM THE
HIGHWAY 93 CORRIDOR ON EAST. FURTHER WEST LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. I ALSO UPGRADED THE WIND
ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY
ZONE AS WELL AS THE MORONGO BASIN ZONE. POWERFUL NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT
AND A 90 KT+ JET AT 250 MB MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. MOS GUIDANCE FOR TPH CONTINUES TO SHOW 40 KT SUSTAINED
WINDS ON THE MAV WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST SET A FEW OF THE MORE PRONE
SENSORS ON THE NORTH END OF THE NEVADA NATIONAL SECURITY SITE TO HIT
AT LEAST 60 MPH FOR A GUST. FURTHER SOUTH, THERE MAY BE SOME GAP
FUNNELING BETWEEN THE MOUNTAINS THAT FAVORS AREAS OF 58 MPH OR
GREATER FOR GUSTS IN THE MORONGO BASIN AS THE WINDS GO WEST-
NORTHWEST JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LANDERS AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF YUCCA VALLEY WHERE WE GET
SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OFF THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO RANGE.
&&
.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR AND MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS WHAT IS A SMALL
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH
A COMMA SHAPED SIGNATURE NOTED ON IMAGERY. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS PUSHING
EAST ACROSS EASTERN CLARK COUNTY INTO MOHAVE COUNTY AND POPS WERE
INCREASED FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BAND AS
WELL AS ADDING IN THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. BEHIND THIS, THERE
IS A DEFINED BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION BUT ADDITIONAL BATCHES
OF SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY SO POPS WERE TWEAKED UP A BIT THERE.
ONE THING THE SHOWERS HAVE DONE IS MOISTENED UP THE ATMOSPHERE
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE TOP DOWN. DEWPOINTS ARE UP INTO THE 40S IN LAS
VEGAS WHICH IS A BIG BUST ON THE END OF GUIDANCE AND WHAT WE HAD IN
THE FORECAST SO THESE WERE TWEAKED. THIS CREATES TWO ISSUES. ONE IS
THAT WINDS ARE NOT REALLY GUSTING AS WE HAVE A LOT LESS DRY AIR AND
THERMAL CONTRAST TO WORK WITH AND WIND SPEEDS WERE LOWERED ACROSS
ALL AREAS THIS EVENING AND FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE ADVISORIES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WE WILL STILL GET THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AHEAD OF THE FRONT MY THOUGHT IS THAT ADVISORY
WINDS WILL BE LOCALIZED OUTSIDE OF THE OWENS VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING DUST WAS ALSO REMOVED
FROM MOST AREAS GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND.
THE SECOND CONCERN WITH THE EXTRA MOISTURE IS SNOW LEVELS. UNLESS WE
DRY OUT MORE, IT WILL BE TOUGHER TO GET SNOW DOWN FURTHER EVEN WHEN
WE WET BULB WITH DEWPOINTS INITIALLY WELL ABOVE 32 DEGREES. HOWEVER,
THE COLDER NATURE OF THE AIR MASS WILL DROP TEMPS SHARPLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. ON THE OTHER HAND, AT THAT POINT WE MAY SEE TEMPS DROP CLOSER
TO DEWPOINTS AND AS THESE PLUNGE THROUGH THE 30S PRECIP COULD HAVE
LESS OF A DRY LOW-LEVEL TO OVERCOME WHICH WOULD BETTER RESULT IN
SOMETHING REACHING THE GROUND.
THE LATEST GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. ANOTHER UPDATE
WILL FOLLOW LATER THIS EVENING IF NEED BE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 315 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS
BEGUN TO SPREAD ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL HIRES MODELS SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH SOUTHERN NEVADA
EARLY EVENING AND THEN INTO MOHAVE COUNTY BY LATE EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS BAND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6000 FEET...BUT AS IT REACHES MOHAVE COUNTY
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN THAT SNOW LEVELS
COULD DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY LATE EVENING. WITH THE EARLIER
TIMING IN PRECIPITATION DID GO AHEAD AND CHANGE THE START TIME OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOHAVE COUNTY FROM 3AM TO 10PM THIS
EVENING. STILL THINK THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE MOST OF THE
CRITICAL TRAVEL AREAS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
EARLIER ACCUMULATING SNOW.
WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING WINDS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. SO FAR WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND CLARK COUNTIES HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE...BUT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
INCREASING AND DO EXPECTED WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST IS MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA BETWEEN 10-12Z
MONDAY MORNING WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALSO DRAMATICALLY DROP SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
THE MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXCEPT FOR MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE DOWN TO 3000 FEET BY MID MORNING. THE BEST AREAS OF
SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE GRAND CANYON PARASHANT
NATIONAL MONUMENT WHERE AMOUNTS COULD REACH 6 INCHES. 2-3 INCHES
OVER COLORADO CITY AND PIPE SPRINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE IS A
CONCERN FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE VIRGIN RIVER GORGE
ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION FALLS AT A HEAVY ENOUGH RATE. AREAS TO
THE WEST SUCH AS CLARK...SOUTHERN NYE...AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DOWN TO 2000-
2500 FEET OR SO ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE
ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT MORE DYNAMIC. THERE COULD BE SOME CONCERNS FOR
AREAS SUCH AS MOUNTAIN PASS ON I-15 AND MOUNTAIN SPRINGS SUMMIT
BETWEEN LAS VEGAS AND PAHRUMP...BUT IF THERE ARE ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME THEY LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL RATHER
WINTERLIKE ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS OVER MOST AREAS...BUT SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES COULD
SEE WARNING LEVEL WINDS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE 20-30 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTHERLY BREEZES. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ENHANCE THOSE NORTHERLY BREEZES JUST A BIT
FOR FRIDAY, BUT NOTHING TOO STRONG. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES AT SOME
POINT, YET TIMING AND LOCATION ARE WAY OFF. EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS
LIKE A DRY WEEKEND FOR NOW. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT WILL
INCREASE AND BE 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
PUSHING 70 IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THEN PERHAPS A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEGUN
AT THE TERMINAL AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. GENERALLY
EXPECT SPEEDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS TO
BE AROUND 12Z WITH VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OCCURRING THEREAFTER.
SPEEDS 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY. EXPECT LOWERING CIGS TONIGHT COINCIDING WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CIGS MAY FALL TO 5K FT MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
PASSING SHOWERS THAT OCCUR. CIGS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. REGARDING PRECIP...LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES EXIST AROUND
3Z AND AGAIN COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 12Z. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY...BRIEF...AND ALL LIQUID AT THE AIRPORT.
PIREPS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE
DOWNSTREAM OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEGUN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS 15-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WITH A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
VERY STRONG TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS 25-35 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 45
KTS...ESPECIALLY FOR WIND-PRONE KDAG AND KIFP. BLDU IS POSSIBLE AT
KDAG OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH REDUCED VSBY POSSIBLE. EXPECT
SHOWERS AT KDAG EARLY THIS EVENING...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KBIH
OVERNIGHT...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER TO 5-10K FT
COINCIDING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND/OR SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVE
RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE HAS BEEN
REPORTED THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF BLDU ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
DOWNSTREAM OF DRY LAKE BEDS AND IN OPEN TERRAIN.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...SHAFER
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
313 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
IMPACTS FROM LOW LEVEL STRATUS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
AS OF 20 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS PROPAGATED THROUGH THE US HIGHWAY
85 CORRIDOR...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE EVENING.
BREEZY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THE EVENING.
WHILE THE STRATUS DECK FROM THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS
THE AREA...A SECONDARY DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SOON ENTER
THE WEST...AND ALSO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. GIVEN A CONSENSUS OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES AND THE 17-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS...LOCATIONS WEST
OF US HIGHWAY 83 ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTING
LOWS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN
TONIGHT ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS.
FOR TUESDAY...STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR
CENTRAL...WITH COOLER POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS HIGH WINDS AND POTENTIAL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A DEEP...CLOSED LOW WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND
ENTER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL PHASE WITH A
CLIPPER COMING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A RAPID TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
ENHANCEMENT OF THE WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 40S. THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE 12 UTC
MODEL SUITE OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM ALL INDICATE A VERY WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THEREFORE...A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE LOWS AFTER THEY PHASE...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY EXIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
AND DRY GRASSLANDS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED AFTER COORDINATING WITH
LOCAL FIRE MANAGERS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND 52.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS CONTINUING AT KMOT/KJMS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
ANOTHER STRATUS DECK ARRIVES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. KDIK/KBIS
HAVE CLEARED...HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE MVFR/IFR
STRATUS DECK THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM MONTANA THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AT KISN CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1221 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ON TIME. REMAINING
FORECAST BLENDED TO A CONSENSUS OF THE 12 THROUGH 17 UTC HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS WHICH HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STRATUS
CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...AND THE SECOND DECK BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL ENTER THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
GIVEN WEBCAM TRENDS THROUGH 1530 UTC...CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE FOR HETTINGER...GRANT AND MORTON
COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL 18 UTC GIVEN ASOS/AWOS AND NDDOT WEBCAM TRENDS
THROUGH 1330 UTC ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK. THE 06
UTC NAM NEST AND 12 UTC HRRR VISIBILITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
VISIBILITY IMPROVING BY 17-18 UTC. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE PUSHED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FOG/LOW STRATUS A BIT FURTHER WEST IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS
NOTED ON SATELLITE. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD
SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
A COOLING TREND BEGINS TODAY WITH STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG
HIGHLIGHTING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS. LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SPLITTING TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SFC-
700MB LOW MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY...THEN THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER WASHINGTON
STATE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THE RECENT PATTERN OF A SPLIT
FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH WEAK INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN BRANCH IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BY IN LARGE THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FLOW AS
WE END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND ADVANCE INTO THE LONG TERM.
THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
FOG/STRATUS LOOP. OVERCAST CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ARCH
WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAS OF FOG STILL ON TRACK
MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ANTICIPATING SOME DENSE AREAS
AS WELL. MINOT IS CURRENTLY AT 6SM WHILE GLEN ULLIN IS AT THREE
QUARTERS OF A MILE. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SHIFT NORTH BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...HOWEVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE MONDAY MORNING AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM JUST EAST OF BISMARCK THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES IN THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.
ON TUESDAY...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN
AREAS. REGION REMAINS NEAR THE CONVERGENCE OF SPLIT FLOW AS UPPER
LOW WORKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
ON WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM
AND PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST EARLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...BEFORE
CONVERGING WITH SECONDARY LOW LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
QUICKLY ADVANCE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING STRONG
MIXING DEVELOPING WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 850
MB. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES PUSH THROUGH AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS SCENARIO...HAVE INCREASED WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ADEQUATE MIXING OF THE STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN
ON THE STRONG AND GUSTY SIDE AS 40-50 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY BRING AN OCCASIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW...THOUGH THE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS CONTINUING AT KMOT INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
ANOTHER STRATUS DECK ARRIVES THIS EVENING. KDIK/KBIS/KISN HAVE
CLEARED...HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS
DECK THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING FROM MONTANA. STRATUS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KJMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
946 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
GIVEN WEBCAM TRENDS THROUGH 1530 UTC...CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE FOR HETTINGER...GRANT AND MORTON
COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL 18 UTC GIVEN ASOS/AWOS AND NDDOT WEBCAM TRENDS
THROUGH 1330 UTC ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK. THE 06
UTC NAM NEST AND 12 UTC HRRR VISIBILITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
VISIBILITY IMPROVING BY 17-18 UTC. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE PUSHED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FOG/LOW STRATUS A BIT FURTHER WEST IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS
NOTED ON SATELLITE. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD
SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
A COOLING TREND BEGINS TODAY WITH STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG
HIGHLIGHTING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS. LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SPLITTING TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SFC-
700MB LOW MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY...THEN THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER WASHINGTON
STATE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THE RECENT PATTERN OF A SPLIT
FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH WEAK INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN BRANCH IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BY IN LARGE THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FLOW AS
WE END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND ADVANCE INTO THE LONG TERM.
THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
FOG/STRATUS LOOP. OVERCAST CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ARCH
WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAS OF FOG STILL ON TRACK
MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ANTICIPATING SOME DENSE AREAS
AS WELL. MINOT IS CURRENTLY AT 6SM WHILE GLEN ULLIN IS AT THREE
QUARTERS OF A MILE. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SHIFT NORTH BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...HOWEVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE MONDAY MORNING AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM JUST EAST OF BISMARCK THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES IN THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.
ON TUESDAY...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN
AREAS. REGION REMAINS NEAR THE CONVERGENCE OF SPLIT FLOW AS UPPER
LOW WORKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
ON WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM
AND PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST EARLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...BEFORE
CONVERGING WITH SECONDARY LOW LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
QUICKLY ADVANCE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING STRONG
MIXING DEVELOPING WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 850
MB. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES PUSH THROUGH AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS SCENARIO...HAVE INCREASED WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ADEQUATE MIXING OF THE STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN
ON THE STRONG AND GUSTY SIDE AS 40-50 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY BRING AN OCCASIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW...THOUGH THE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 938 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS CONTINUING AT KMOT INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
ANOTHER STRATUS DECK ARRIVES THIS EVENING. KDIK AND KISN ARE JUST
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT FOG/STRATUS BANK THIS MORNING
AS OF 1530 UTC...HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE MVFR/IFR
STRATUS DECK THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING. KBIS IS BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT OF THE STRATUS...WITH STRATUS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AT KJMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017>019-033.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
741 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL 18 UTC GIVEN ASOS/AWOS AND NDDOT WEBCAM TRENDS
THROUGH 1330 UTC ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK. THE 06
UTC NAM NEST AND 12 UTC HRRR VISIBILITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
VISIBILITY IMPROVING BY 17-18 UTC. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE PUSHED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FOG/LOW STRATUS A BIT FURTHER WEST IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS
NOTED ON SATELLITE. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD
SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
A COOLING TREND BEGINS TODAY WITH STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG
HIGHLIGHTING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS. LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SPLITTING TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SFC-
700MB LOW MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY...THEN THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER WASHINGTON
STATE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THE RECENT PATTERN OF A SPLIT
FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH WEAK INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN BRANCH IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BY IN LARGE THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FLOW AS
WE END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND ADVANCE INTO THE LONG TERM.
THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
FOG/STRATUS LOOP. OVERCAST CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ARCH
WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAS OF FOG STILL ON TRACK
MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ANTICIPATING SOME DENSE AREAS
AS WELL. MINOT IS CURRENTLY AT 6SM WHILE GLEN ULLIN IS AT THREE
QUARTERS OF A MILE. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SHIFT NORTH BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...HOWEVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE MONDAY MORNING AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM JUST EAST OF BISMARCK THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES IN THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.
ON TUESDAY...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN
AREAS. REGION REMAINS NEAR THE CONVERGENCE OF SPLIT FLOW AS UPPER
LOW WORKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
ON WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM
AND PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST EARLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...BEFORE
CONVERGING WITH SECONDARY LOW LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
QUICKLY ADVANCE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING STRONG
MIXING DEVELOPING WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 850
MB. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES PUSH THROUGH AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS SCENARIO...HAVE INCREASED WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ADEQUATE MIXING OF THE STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN
ON THE STRONG AND GUSTY SIDE AS 40-50 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY BRING AN OCCASIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW...THOUGH THE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
IFR CIGS AT KMOT/KBIS ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR
BETWEEN 16Z-18Z MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING BETWEEN 00Z-05Z. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 03Z-05Z TUESDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KDIK AND KISN THIS MORNING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FOG/STRATUS
BANK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017>019-033-034-041-042.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
635 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE PUSHED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FOG/LOW STRATUS A BIT FURTHER WEST IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS
NOTED ON SATELLITE. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD
SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
A COOLING TREND BEGINS TODAY WITH STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG
HIGHLIGHTING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS. LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SPLITTING TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SFC-
700MB LOW MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY...THEN THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER WASHINGTON
STATE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THE RECENT PATTERN OF A SPLIT
FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH WEAK INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN BRANCH IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BY IN LARGE THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FLOW AS
WE END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND ADVANCE INTO THE LONG TERM.
THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
FOG/STRATUS LOOP. OVERCAST CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ARCH
WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAS OF FOG STILL ON TRACK
MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ANTICIPATING SOME DENSE AREAS
AS WELL. MINOT IS CURRENTLY AT 6SM WHILE GLEN ULLIN IS AT THREE
QUARTERS OF A MILE. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SHIFT NORTH BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...HOWEVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE MONDAY MORNING AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM JUST EAST OF BISMARCK THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES IN THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.
ON TUESDAY...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN
AREAS. REGION REMAINS NEAR THE CONVERGENCE OF SPLIT FLOW AS UPPER
LOW WORKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
ON WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM
AND PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST EARLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...BEFORE
CONVERGING WITH SECONDARY LOW LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
QUICKLY ADVANCE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING STRONG
MIXING DEVELOPING WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 850
MB. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES PUSH THROUGH AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS SCENARIO...HAVE INCREASED WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ADEQUATE MIXING OF THE STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN
ON THE STRONG AND GUSTY SIDE AS 40-50 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY BRING AN OCCASIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW...THOUGH THE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
IFR CIGS AT KMOT/KBIS ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR
BETWEEN 16Z-18Z MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING BETWEEN 00Z-05Z. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 03Z-05Z TUESDAY. KDIK AND KISN ARE BOTH ON THE FRINGES OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
MOVEMENT OF STRATUS TOWARD KISN...HAVE INTRODUCED IFR CIGS/MVFR
VSBYS FROM 13Z-18Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
315 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
A COOLING TREND BEGINS TODAY WITH STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG
HIGHLIGHTING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS. LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SPLITTING TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SFC-
700MB LOW MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY...THEN THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER WASHINGTON
STATE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THE RECENT PATTERN OF A SPLIT
FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH WEAK INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN BRANCH IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BY IN LARGE THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FLOW AS
WE END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND ADVANCE INTO THE LONG TERM.
THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
FOG/STRATUS LOOP. OVERCAST CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ARCH
WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAS OF FOG STILL ON TRACK
MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ANTICIPATING SOME DENSE AREAS
AS WELL. MINOT IS CURRENTLY AT 6SM WHILE GLEN ULLIN IS AT THREE
QUARTERS OF A MILE. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SHIFT NORTH BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...HOWEVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE MONDAY MORNING AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM JUST EAST OF BISMARCK THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES IN THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.
ON TUESDAY...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN
AREAS. REGION REMAINS NEAR THE CONVERGENCE OF SPLIT FLOW AS UPPER
LOW WORKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
ON WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM
AND PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST EARLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...BEFORE
CONVERGING WITH SECONDARY LOW LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
QUICKLY ADVANCE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING STRONG
MIXING DEVELOPING WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 850
MB. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES PUSH THROUGH AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS SCENARIO...HAVE INCREASED WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ADEQUATE MIXING OF THE STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN
ON THE STRONG AND GUSTY SIDE AS 40-50 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY BRING AN OCCASIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW...THOUGH THE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM
CST MON NOV 16 2015
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR BY 12Z AT KJMS. OTHERWISE LIFR
CIGS AND IFR VSBYS FORECAST AT KBIS/KMOT BETWEEN 11Z-12Z MONDAY
WHILE KISN IS JUST ON THE FRINGES OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. KDIK WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR KBIS/KMOT...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17Z-18Z. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER KISN BY 20Z AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CIGS AT KJMS MONDAY EVENING UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1148 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS NOW SLIDING
INTO DICKEY COUNTY AND MOVING NORTH TOWARD JAMESTOWN. CEILINGS
BASED AT 2800FT AGL PER LATEST ABERDEEN OBSERVATION. LATEST HRRR
CEILING FORECAST ON TRACK AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN AREA OF
LOWERING CLOUDS/STRATUS DEVELOP FARTHER WEST TO AND ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ALSO
STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z-12Z IN CONCERT WITH THE
LOWERING STRATUS DECK...HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE BY MID MORNING
MOST OF THE FOG WILL LIFT AS THE STRATUS ALSO BEGINS TO SHIFT
NORTH. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY. FOR THIS UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH THE REST OF THE GRIDDED
ELEMENTS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MOST GRIDS THIS EVENING. CONSSHORT DID
BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GIVEN
THE EXPECTED STRATUS TO ADVECT INTO THAT REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALSO MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO SKY COVER. LATEST ITERATIONS OF
MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRATUS SPREADING NORTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BEGINNING IN THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND 07-09 UTC...AND SPREADING INTO
MINOT AND NEAR BISMARCK CLOSER TO 12 UTC. WESTER FRINGE OF THE LOW
STRATUS STRADDLES THE BISMARCK AREA AND REMAINS JUST WEST OF
WILLISTON. GREATEST THREAT OF LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG FROM
MESOSCALE MODELS EXTENDS ALONG THE MISSOURI FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO
LAKE SAKAKAWEA...AND BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE
LAKE...FROM AROUND GARRISON TO MINOT...BOWBELLS AND CROSBY. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER
NW-WCNTRAL ND MONDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO STRADDLES BISMARCK AND
REMAINS JUST WEST OF WILLISTON. WILL BE A TRICKY TAF NIGHT AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT FOR KDIK WHICH REMAINS IN VFR...BUT MORE SO AT KBIS
AND KISN DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND PROXIMITY OF THE FOG AND
STRATUS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
QUIET THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 5
TO 15 MPH. ONLY CHANGES FOR THE EVENING OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE TO LOWER SKY COVER. STILL EXPECT
INCREASING LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
FOG TONIGHT AND A COOLER MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY FIELDS FROM THE 12 AND 18 UTC 4KM NAM
NEST AND THE 18-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12 UTC GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON PROPAGATING NORTH AND BEGINNING TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 07-09 UTC TONIGHT. MAINTAINED THE FOG
MENTION IN THE GRIDS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS NEEDED GIVEN THE SIGNAL IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION
VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MONDAY...AFTER A VERY MILD SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES FOR MOST FIELDS MONDAY WITH
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 40S WEST...AND 50S CENTRAL.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOG AND STRATUS IMPACTS MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT FROM THE CONSENSUS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LONG TERM INCLUDE OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...A COOLING TREND...AND WINDY CONDITIONS MID-WEEK.
BY MONDAY EVENING THERE IS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FRONT RANGE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER COLORADO. THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST AS THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...BLENDING
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA. THESE SCENARIOS TRANSLATE TO
A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE
AREA...ARRIVING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
PUSHING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN THE EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE
STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AS A SHORT WAVE LIFTS THROUGH SPLIT FLOW AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN - ESPECIALLY THE JAMES
VALLEY - AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
FOR TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...THOUGH STILL REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...WITH A WINTRY
MIX POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLDER AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO THE VALLEY.
ON WEDNESDAY...A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT DIVES THROUGH THE AREA.
STRONG WINDS ARE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE MIXING 50KT WINDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-DAY.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS EVOLVES. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MANY PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH MAINLY
RAIN DURING THE DAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IT THE WAKE OF THE STRONG WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT...WITH A FEW
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR TO FOLLOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES...WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KJMS BY 07Z MONDAY WITH LOWERING CIGS INTO
THE IFR RANGE BY 12Z. IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ALSO
EXPECTED AT KBIS/KMOT BETWEEN 11Z-12Z MONDAY WHILE KISN IS JUST
ON THE FRINGES OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
FOR KBIS/KMOT...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17Z-18Z. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER KISN BY 20Z AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CIGS AT KJMS MONDAY EVENING. KDIK...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
527 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...
00Z TAFS...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE AROUND
18G28KT FOR BNA AND CKV. A STRONG 65KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP...SO
CONTINUING TO INCLUDE LL WIND SHEAR FOR CKV AND BNA. RAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT CKV AROUND 11Z...BNA AROUND 13Z...AND CKV
ABOUT 17Z. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WITH IFR
CIGS/VSBYS SHORTLY AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN
END AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z AT CKV AND BNA...AND
23Z AT CSV.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/
DISCUSSION...WINDS NOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS
OF BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE NOW BEING REPORTED. WINDS ARE STRONG
BACK TO THE WEST AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW STACKS RATHER
NICELY WITH THE SFC SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INTENSIFICATION
IS ONGOING SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OUR GRADIENT TIGHTEN UP AS WE
PUSH INTO THIS EVENING.
LATEST HRRR MODEL HOLDS OFF WITH THE RAIN UNTIL AROUND 3AM FOR
OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS. THUS...A CONTINUING SPELL OF SUBSIDENCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN BAND WILL SERVE TO PERHAPS PROLONG THE
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. FOR THAT REASON...WILL OPT TO TEMPORALLY
EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY THOUGH 18Z ON WED.
OTW...A SOLID BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED
TSTMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID STATE WED MORNING. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...THE RAIN WILL REACH THE TN RIVER AROUND 3AM AND FROM
THERE WILL REACH OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES SOMETIME BETWEEN 10 AM AND
NOON. THE MODERATE AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 6 TO 8
HOURS AS IT WORKS EASTWARD. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
COMMON PLACE AND AS ALWAYS...LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS AND MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL.
MOVING ON...THE LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END ACROSS THE PLATEAU
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. DRY AND SEASONAL AIR WILL RETURN AFTER
THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST.
IN THE EXT FCST...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.. HOWEVER...MIDDLE TN WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF EACH AXIS AND SO...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
EXIST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL USHER IN THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. IN FACT...THE GFS ELUDES TO A
FEW SNOW FLURRIES WITH A WEAK SUNDAY NIGHT IMPULSE. BUT...SINCE THE
EURO IS DRY...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SNOW FLURRY CHANCES. OTW...LOOK
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...HIGHS UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.
21
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
106 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
.UPDATE...
THIN...BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE GOING UP FROM ECNTL NM TO THE WRN
OKLA PANHANDLE PRETTY WELL IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS HRRR RUNS. DEW
POINTS FROM MID-40S UPWARDS ACROSS ALL THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA
SUGGESTS SEVERE POTENTIAL ALL THE WAY WEST TO THE NM STATE LINE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO THINK BEST SVR CHANCE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS
FROM NOW AND FURTHER EAST TOWARD TULIA...PLAINVIEW...AND POINTS
EAST. SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FROM MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
WILL UPDATE FCST TO ADD WATCH MENTION AS WELL ADJUST TEMPS...AS
THEY HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA
WHERE STRATUS HAS GIVEN WAY TO SUNSHINE.
QUESTION STILL REMAIN WHETHER THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MORPH
INTO THE MAIN SHOW OR IF A SECONDARY ROUND WILL DEVELOP EARLY
EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED. THAT MAY ALSO END UP
DEPENDENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. 18Z HRRR NOW TRENDING TOWARD THIS LATTER SCHOOL OF
THOUGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/
UPDATE...
FCST LOOKING GOOD WITH ELEMENTS SUCH AS TEMP AND DEW POINT
TRACKING WELL SO FAR THIS MORNING. FOCUS ATTM IS ON POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AFTER ANALYSIS AND DIVING
INTO THE MODELS...HAVE GENERALLY BOUGHT INTO THE HRRR FOR
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. CAP LOOKS TO BE WEAKEST LATER THIS AFTN TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK ALSO COINCIDING WITH THE AREA
OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH BRN SHEAR 50-100 M2/S2. WITH THE
STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FCST
AREA UNTIL BTWN 00Z AND 03Z...THINK BEST CHANCE FOR INITIAL
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE IN THIS AREA OF WEAKER CAP AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION. DISCRETE CELLS SHOULD RACE NEWD. FUEL AND
SHEAR COMBINATION REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS
SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL...WHILE IF SOME LOCAL BACKING OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS CAN OCCUR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
ONCE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SFC PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVE OVER THE
REGION...LIKELY JUST AFTER 00Z...SHOULD SEE A MORE LINEAR OR
QUASI-LINEAR MULTICELLUR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE INITIATE AND DEVELOP
FAVORING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND...IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING.
WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTN POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
THINKING. MAY ALSO NEED TO TWEAK WINDS AND SKY GRID.
AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTN TO SHIFT TOWARD WEST THIS EVENING AS A
STRONG CYCLONE DEVELOPS ON THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS AND A SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET OFF ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF TS BTWN 21Z AND
03Z WHICH WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND NORTHEAST. INTIATION
WILL BE IN A ZONE EITHER SIDE OF KPVW AND KLBB...AND GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS AREA WILL KEEP TS MENTION OUT OF BOTH OF THOSE
TAFS. KCDS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE THIS CONVECTION AND HAVE KEPT
MENTION IN THAT TAF FOR THIS EVENING. FINALLY...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY AT KCDS POSSIBLY LIFTING BRIEFLY LATE AFTN
WHILE KPVW AND KLBB SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 19Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/
AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DO
SO UNTIL AT LEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT KLBB/KPVW. KCDS
MAY HOLD ON TO THESE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH BEING ENTRENCHED
IN A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED NEAR 15-20 KNOTS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS WELL. IN ADDITION...KCDS STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SEEING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL THIS
EVENING...AROUND THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME. KLBB AND KPVW WILL ALSO
SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND MID AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY MUCH LESS IN EITHER TERMINAL BEING DIRECTLY IMPACTED.
WILL MONITOR ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/
SHORT TERM...
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE GRAND CANYON WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE HEADWAY TODAY BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS.
ADDITIONALLY...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87
CORRIDOR.
A SURFACE LOW WILL FURTHER DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS RESULTING IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
PEAKING NEAR 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
REACH AND POSSIBLY EXCEED 30 MPH ACROSS PARMER...CASTRO...AND BAILEY
COUNTIES...THEREFORE WARRANTING A WIND ADVISORY VALID FROM NOON
THROUGH 5 PM. DESPITE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...THESE DOWNSLOPE BREEZES
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH OF A H85 THERMAL MAX WILL PUSH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTHWEST AND LOW-MID 70S
ELSEWHERE.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DRYLINE SHARPENS ALONG THE AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH...LOCATED ROUGHLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87
CORRIDOR. DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL DRASTICALLY INCREASE BY MID
AFTERNOON AS STEADY HEIGHT FALLS AND PRESENCE OF THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 130 KNOT UPPER JET ACCOMPANY PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. 0-6 KM
SHEAR INCREASING TO 55-65 KNOTS AND LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL THUS
ENSUE...PROMOTING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MID
LEVEL COOLING AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE-BASED
CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION EARLY ON. OVERWHELMING SHEAR AND
LINEAR FORCING VIA AN APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL INEVITABLY CONGEAL ANY DISCRETE ACTIVITY INTO
A LINEAR STRUCTURE...WHICH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
LIKELY EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE/ROLLING PLAINS BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A TRANSITION TO WIND
TAKES PLACE THIS EVENING.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF EVEN COOLER AIR BEHIND AN APPROACHING
CANADIAN COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE ORDER OF 15-
25 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S ON THE
CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 40S EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT COME DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...
BY TUESDAY MORNING...ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED
ACROSS SW KS/OK PANHANDLE AND EJECTING ENE WHILST FILLING AS IT
DEPARTS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES SHOULD
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE NEXT LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE SWRN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER HAVING BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTED ALL
NIGHT. DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. GIVEN HEURISTIC INSIGHT...LIKELY
SOONER THAN LATER AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE FRONT
ENTERING THE CWFA AOA 12-13Z. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST PERHAPS PEAKING AROUND MID-DAY BEFORE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAW GUIDANCE...AS TYPICAL IN
THESE SITUATIONS...IS UNDERPLAYING THE ISOTACHS AND WILL TREND
CLOSER TO AND THE HIGHER END OF MOS WHICH IS NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FCST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
VIRGA-LIKE SOUNDINGS. WHILE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF WRAP AROUND
PRECIP PROSPECTS...THERE IS CERTAINLY VALUE...IN THIS SETUP...TO
SUGGEST THAT SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE WEATHER WILL BE
PLEASANT AND QUIET WITH ANOTHER FRONT LIKELY ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY THEN A STRONGER EVENT FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS LATTER FRONT TOO SHOWS PROMISE OF BEING A FAIR BIT
BREEZY THOUGH THE MEAN WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE A BIT MORE NNERLY.
GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MJO...THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE
THE LAST HURRAH FOR THE COOLER AIR DUMPS FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ021-022-027.
&&
$$
07/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
.UPDATE...
FCST LOOKING GOOD WITH ELEMENTS SUCH AS TEMP AND DEW POINT
TRACKING WELL SO FAR THIS MORNING. FOCUS ATTM IS ON POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AFTER ANALYSIS AND DIVING
INTO THE MODELS...HAVE GENERALLY BOUGHT INTO THE HRRR FOR
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. CAP LOOKS TO BE WEAKEST LATER THIS AFTN TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK ALSO COINCIDING WITH THE AREA
OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH BRN SHEAR 50-100 M2/S2. WITH THE
STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FCST
AREA UNTIL BTWN 00Z AND 03Z...THINK BEST CHANCE FOR INITIAL
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE IN THIS AREA OF WEAKER CAP AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION. DISCRETE CELLS SHOULD RACE NEWD. FUEL AND
SHEAR COMBINATION REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS
SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL...WHILE IF SOME LOCAL BACKING OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS CAN OCCUR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
ONCE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SFC PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVE OVER THE
REGION...LIKELY JUST AFTER 00Z...SHOULD SEE A MORE LINEAR OR
QUASI-LINEAR MULTICELLUR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE INITIATE AND DEVELOP
FAVORING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND...IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING.
WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTN POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
THINKING. MAY ALSO NEED TO TWEAK WINDS AND SKY GRID.
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTN TO SHIFT TOWARD WEST THIS EVENING AS A
STRONG CYCLONE DEVELOPS ON THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS AND A SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET OFF ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF TS BTWN 21Z AND
03Z WHICH WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND NORTHEAST. INTIATION
WILL BE IN A ZONE EITHER SIDE OF KPVW AND KLBB...AND GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS AREA WILL KEEP TS MENTION OUT OF BOTH OF THOSE
TAFS. KCDS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE THIS CONVECTION AND HAVE KEPT
MENTION IN THAT TAF FOR THIS EVENING. FINALLY...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY AT KCDS POSSIBLY LIFTING BRIEFLY LATE AFTN
WHILE KPVW AND KLBB SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 19Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/
AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DO
SO UNTIL AT LEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT KLBB/KPVW. KCDS
MAY HOLD ON TO THESE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH BEING ENTRENCHED
IN A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED NEAR 15-20 KNOTS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS WELL. IN ADDITION...KCDS STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SEEING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL THIS
EVENING...AROUND THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME. KLBB AND KPVW WILL ALSO
SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND MID AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY MUCH LESS IN EITHER TERMINAL BEING DIRECTLY IMPACTED.
WILL MONITOR ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/
SHORT TERM...
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE GRAND CANYON WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE HEADWAY TODAY BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS.
ADDITIONALLY...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87
CORRIDOR.
A SURFACE LOW WILL FURTHER DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS RESULTING IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
PEAKING NEAR 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
REACH AND POSSIBLY EXCEED 30 MPH ACROSS PARMER...CASTRO...AND BAILEY
COUNTIES...THEREFORE WARRANTING A WIND ADVISORY VALID FROM NOON
THROUGH 5 PM. DESPITE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...THESE DOWNSLOPE BREEZES
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH OF A H85 THERMAL MAX WILL PUSH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTHWEST AND LOW-MID 70S
ELSEWHERE.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DRYLINE SHARPENS ALONG THE AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH...LOCATED ROUGHLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87
CORRIDOR. DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL DRASTICALLY INCREASE BY MID
AFTERNOON AS STEADY HEIGHT FALLS AND PRESENCE OF THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 130 KNOT UPPER JET ACCOMPANY PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. 0-6 KM
SHEAR INCREASING TO 55-65 KNOTS AND LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL THUS
ENSUE...PROMOTING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MID
LEVEL COOLING AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE-BASED
CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION EARLY ON. OVERWHELMING SHEAR AND
LINEAR FORCING VIA AN APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL INEVITABLY CONGEAL ANY DISCRETE ACTIVITY INTO
A LINEAR STRUCTURE...WHICH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
LIKELY EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE/ROLLING PLAINS BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A TRANSITION TO WIND
TAKES PLACE THIS EVENING.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF EVEN COOLER AIR BEHIND AN APPROACHING
CANADIAN COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE ORDER OF 15-
25 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S ON THE
CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 40S EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT COME DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...
BY TUESDAY MORNING...ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED
ACROSS SW KS/OK PANHANDLE AND EJECTING ENE WHILST FILLING AS IT
DEPARTS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES SHOULD
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE NEXT LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE SWRN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER HAVING BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTED ALL
NIGHT. DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. GIVEN HEURISTIC INSIGHT...LIKELY
SOONER THAN LATER AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE FRONT
ENTERING THE CWFA AOA 12-13Z. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST PERHAPS PEAKING AROUND MID-DAY BEFORE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAW GUIDANCE...AS TYPICAL IN
THESE SITUATIONS...IS UNDERPLAYING THE ISOTACHS AND WILL TREND
CLOSER TO AND THE HIGHER END OF MOS WHICH IS NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FCST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
VIRGA-LIKE SOUNDINGS. WHILE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF WRAP AROUND
PRECIP PROSPECTS...THERE IS CERTAINLY VALUE...IN THIS SETUP...TO
SUGGEST THAT SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE WEATHER WILL BE
PLEASANT AND QUIET WITH ANOTHER FRONT LIKELY ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY THEN A STRONGER EVENT FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS LATTER FRONT TOO SHOWS PROMISE OF BEING A FAIR BIT
BREEZY THOUGH THE MEAN WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE A BIT MORE NNERLY.
GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MJO...THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE
THE LAST HURRAH FOR THE COOLER AIR DUMPS FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ021-022-027.
&&
$$
07/99/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
942 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
.UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR EXPERIMENTAL SHOWING RAIN TROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MORE
OFF AND ON SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST TIP. STILL A LONG
DURATION OF MODERATE RAIN WITH SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS. HRRR
EXPERIMENTAL SHOWS THE OCCLUDED FRONT REACHING FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN AROUND SUNRISE. THEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AND EXITING THE FAR EAST JUST BEFORE NOON. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
EXPECT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT...AS A SURGE OF
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. IFR
CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY MVFR FAR SOUTHEAST WITH
MORE OFF AND ON SHOWERS.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS
WILL BE BELOW 25 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE AT TIMES...SO THERE WILL BE
SOME WIND SHEAR....WITH WINDS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL
POSSIBLY REACHING THE 55 KNOT RANGE FOR A TIME TONIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 27 TO 33 KNOT
GUSTS EXPECTED. THESE GUSTS COULD BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE THEM IN TAFS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED IN THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND AN
OCCLUDED FRONT. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO THE MVFR CATEGORY
RANGE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTS HAVE NOT BEEN
REACHING CRITERIA FOR THE MOST PART TODAY...BUT SHOULD DO SO TONIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS...ARE EXPECTED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HIGH WAVES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH THE GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWARD...THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE HIGH WAVES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TOWARD THE OPEN
WATERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRES...FOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AS GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS LINGER WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS STRONG MIXING WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OCCURS. ANY HIGH WAVES WILL BE TOWARD OR OVER THE OPEN WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH FOCUSED 850/700 MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING WITH VERY WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM RAP/NAM/GFS MODELS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING AS WELL...WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT...AS A VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
OVER THE REGION. WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED DEEP
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY SEE LULLS IN THE RAIN AT TIMES...AS DRIER AIR
TRIES TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND POINTS TO THE EAST. FEEL
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
LINGER AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH...WITH THE WARM
MOIST FEED INTO THE AREA.
STRONG CLOSED 500 MB LOW SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ON WEDNESDAY...AS IT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG
THE SHOWERS WILL LAST...WITH SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
FOR GUSTS REACHING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...AS AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM NAM/GFS ARE SHOWING POSSIBLE 40 KNOT GUSTS MIXING DOWNWARD.
WENT WITH LOWER 30 KNOT GUSTS FOR NOW...AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW STRONG THE GUSTS WILL GET WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE MORNING SHOULD
BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TO 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OPENS UP...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST THAT CROSSES THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A SURROUNDING BROAD TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SECOND WAVE WILL DRIVE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE FOR SHOWERY PCPN AS OMEGA WITH FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ALONG FRONT IS ENHANCED BY MID-UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL CVA WITH SECOND WAVE CROSSING
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
COLD ADVECTION AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT
BUT ENOUGH NEAR SURFACE COOLING TO PREVENT FULL MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF
35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS WITHIN 2K FT OF THE SURFACE.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WEST WINDS WILL RISE BACK UP AS STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COLD ADVECTION ALLOW DEEP MIXING UP TO 40-
45KT WINDS. RAISED WINDS AND GUSTS FROM CONSENSUS BLEND BUT MAY NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH. WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. -1C TO -2C 925 MB TEMPS YIELD HIGHS AROUND 40.
WINDS EASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN TO THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY. WNW WIND FLOW IS BARELY CROSS-
ISOTHERMAL SO 925 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AS WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. LOOKING FOR MID 20S LOWS AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS INLAND AND LOW 40S RIGHT ALONG
THE LAKE.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW
MODELS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THAT DEEPENS JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH 12Z GFS IS STILL FASTER
AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE QPF...THOUGH END OF 18Z NAM MODEL SET AT
06Z SATURDAY IS EVEN FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS WITH THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE ECMWF AND GEMNH.
TIMING AND LOCATION IS IMPORTANT AS SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW
BUT SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE EARLIER ONSET OF THE GFS
WOULD HINDER ACCUMULATIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEMNH HAVE HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS AND HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SOUTH OVER IL. RAISED
POPS AND QPF OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT WILL
HOPE FOR BETTER LOCATION/TIMING CONSENSUS IN LATER RUNS.
DRY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE...WITH ONLY THE GFS BRINGING PCPN
IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WILL FOLLOW
CONSENSUS BLEND THAT KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND PCPN STAYING NORTH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK UP TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TAF SITES INTO
TONIGHT...AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP AND REMAIN
MAINLY IN IFR CATEGORY TONIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING BELOW ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS AT TIMES. SOME MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY
BE POSSIBLE AT THE EASTERN SITES TONIGHT...IF DRY AIR WORKS INTO
THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND BRINGS A LULL IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH THIS HAPPENING.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL INTO TONIGHT. THINK THAT
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION. IT WILL BE CLOSE...WITH
WINDS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL POSSIBLY REACHING THE 55 TO 60
KNOT RANGE FOR A TIME TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 02Z TO 09Z PERIOD.
GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 27 TO 33 KNOT
GUSTS EXPECTED. THESE GUSTS COULD BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE THEM IN TAFS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER
IN THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HOW LONG THE SHOWERS LAST
LATER IN THE DAY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO THE MVFR CATEGORY RANGE
ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTS HAVE NOT BEEN
REACHING CRITERIA FOR THE MOST PART TODAY...BUT SHOULD DO SO TONIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS...ARE EXPECTED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HIGH WAVES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH THE GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWARD...THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE HIGH WAVES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TOWARD THE OPEN
WATERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRES...FOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AS GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS LINGER WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS STRONG MIXING WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OCCURS. ANY HIGH WAVES WILL BE TOWARD OR OVER THE OPEN WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1015 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO TAKE DOWN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING RAPID IMPROVEMENT AS THE
STORMS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY AND REPORTS FROM OUT THAT WAY INDICATE
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
FORECAST UPDATED TO TAKE DOWN THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE EASTERN MOST ZONES UNTIL 800 PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 527 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXTEND BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS WHERE PERSISTENT SNOW BAND CONTINUES. HRRR SHOWS
THIS DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 7 PM...SO CURRENT THINKING IS
A DOWNGRADE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM TO FINISH
OFF THE EVENT. ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
...AUTUMN BLIZZARD HAS BROUGHT MAJOR IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
AUTUMN BLIZZARD CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY AREAS BEING IMPACTED WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ARE EASTERN LAS ANIMAS...BACA...PROWERS AND EASTERN KIOWA COUNTIES.
WEB CAMS INDICATE HEAVY...BLOWING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN
THESE AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING AT THIS
TIME. WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING 50 TO 60 MPH...CONTRIBUTING TO A LOT
OF DRIFTING SNOW...HIGHWAY CLOSURES...POWER AND COMMUNICATION
DISRUPTIONS. BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES THESE AREAS THROUGH 5
PM. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM AS CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST.
JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE SNOW...STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH
STILL POSSIBLE. THIS INCLUDES CROWLEY...OTERO...WESTERN KIOWA AND
BENT COUNTIES. SNOW MAY COMBINE WITH THE WINDS IN THESE AREAS AT
TIMES TO PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
BENT AND SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTIES.
STORM IS PRETTY MUCH HISTORY FARTHER WEST. THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR...AROUND TRINIDAD AND RATON PASS...COULD SEE A FEW MORE
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. FOR EVERYONE
ELSE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS STORM HAS BROUGHT MAJOR IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
INCLUDING POWER AND COMMUNICATION OUTAGES...HIGHWAY CLOSURES AND
TREE DAMAGE. TRAVEL IS HAZARDOUS...AND IN SOME CASES NOT
POSSIBLE...ACROSS PARTS OF LAS ANIMAS...BACA...PROWERS AND EASTERN
KIOWA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. HIGHWAY 287...385 FROM SOUTH OF LAMAR
TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER IS CLOSED. HIGHWAY 160 FROM EAST OF TRINIDAD
TO SPRINGFIELD IS ALSO CLOSED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID TRAVEL AND STAY
HOME. ATTEMPTING TRAVEL IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING WOULD BE
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS IF NOT FUTILE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
MAIN LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND BASICALLY NIL TO LOW-GRADE
POPS(WITH POPS GENERALLY FAVORING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND NEARBY LOCATIONS
FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT).
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER TERM AS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY TO
ZONAL UPPER FLOW PREVAILS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE
SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGHING IN PLACE FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT NORTHERLY SURFACE SURGE FRIDAY MORNING.
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS DURING THE LONGER
TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT TUESDAY. FINALLY...COOLEST
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED FROM
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM
SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015
KALS...BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA IS INDICATING FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KALS AND GIVEN THE SNOW OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT DEVELOP. HAVE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS 10-16Z
TONIGHT. ONCE FOG DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
401 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...POOR-HAZARDOUS BEACH/BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY..
...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO LATE WEEK...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A RATHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL ONLY SLOWLY NUDGE EAST AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN THE MID PART OF THE COUNTRY LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN
AND SLOW AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT.
QUITE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING 25-30
KNOT SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL ONLY EASE SLIGHTLY
DURING THE DAY...THEN MORESO LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH
GETS CLOSER. SUCH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
CONVERGENCE LINES OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SWEEP SHOWERS QUICKLY
ASHORE AND INLAND TODAY. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER SHALLOW
OVERNIGHT DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THE HRRR HAS NOT SHOWN LIGHTNING
GENERATION YET...SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS NO
MENTION OF THUNDER.
THE 00Z MOS POPS FOR TODAY CAME IN 40-60 PERCENT WHICH IS A 20-30
PERCENT JUMP FROM THE 12Z RUN. RADAR COVERAGE OVERNIGHT LOOKS
CLOSER TO 40 PERCENT COVERAGE...SO WILL SETTLE ON THAT FOR NOW.
GRADUAL VEERING AND WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WILL
LESSEN ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS. BUT WITH THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WIND
FLOW BEING VERY MOIST...WILL KEEP CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS
AREAWIDE.
THUR-FRI...BROAD TROUGHING WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES AS A STORM SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LOSE MUCH OF
ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL SPELL A DAMP END TO THE WORKWEEK...ESPECIALLY
ON THURSDAY WHEN PWATS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 2.0 INCHES...WELL WITHIN
THE UPPER LIMITS OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GENERALLY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE CONVERGENCE REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORWARD MOMENTUM OF THE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND
DYNAMICS REMAIN LACKING OUTSIDE OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SEEMS PRUDENT FOR THE TIME BEING.
FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ON
FRIDAY AS SOME MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
OVERALL...POPS WILL BE ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES LOWER WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER THE TREASURE COAST...IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND
HIGHER MOISTURE.
SAT-WED...INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG IT...PROVIDING THE AREA
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE. ADDITIONAL AMPLIFICATION
OF THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SEND A
REINFORCING COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND FINALLY BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO AN END BY LATE SUNDAY / EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE SECONDARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE VEERING OUR
WINDS QUICKLY ONSHORE. THOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE MODIFIED SOMEWHAT OFF
THE WARM ATLANTIC OCEAN...EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR TO FILTER IN OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
&&
.AVIATION...
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SWEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ATLANTIC
SHOWERS ACROSS THE COAST AND INLAND TODAY. BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH
MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LATEST BUOY DATA SHOWED SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET ACROSS
THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BEEN MODULATED BY PASSING SHOWERS BUT
OVERALL THEY ARE FORECAST AT LEAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE WILL NOT CHANGE THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS. MARINE MOS AND OUR LOCAL
WAVE MODEL ARE SHOWING WIND/SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT...
SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE 10 PM END TIME...THOUGH MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN POOR IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF
THE QUICK MOVING SHOWERS TODAY WILL ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF 25-30 KNOT
WIND GUSTS.
THU-FRI...SLOW MOVING SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
ON THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED TO RELAX WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING SOUTHERLY OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT...ALONG WITH ISOLATED OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO HANG UP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...WIND
AND SEAS FORECAST WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...HOWEVER...GENERAL THINKING
IS WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WHILE GRADUALLY INCREASING
UP TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SAT-SUN...SURFACE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FORECAST REMAINS
CHALLENGING...HOWEVER...A GRADUAL RELAXATION OF WINDS IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING COOL FRONT QUICKLY BUILDS SEAS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 73 81 69 / 40 40 60 50
MCO 86 72 83 69 / 40 30 60 50
MLB 84 75 83 72 / 40 30 60 50
VRB 85 74 84 71 / 40 30 60 60
LEE 85 72 82 68 / 40 40 60 50
SFB 86 72 83 69 / 40 40 60 50
ORL 85 72 83 69 / 40 30 60 50
FPR 84 74 83 71 / 40 30 60 60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20
NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....ULRICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
354 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI NIGHT)...
TODAY...AS THE WIND PROFILE VEERS SLIGHTLY TODAY TO THE SE, IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND WESTERN
GULF COLD FRONT, A SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
BE DRAWN INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MODEL PWATS RISE TDY AND ARE
CLOSE TO 2" BY 0Z THURS. HRRR AND OTHER HI RES MODELS ARE MUCH
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY, THAN YESTERDAY. THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE
RATHER DRY NAM/GFS. MOST ACTIVITY IS DEPICTED ACROSS BROWARD AND
PALM BEACH COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN GUIDANCE, STILL CAN`T RULE OUT SOME DEEPER SHOWERS
TRAINING OVER PARTS OF THE EAST COAST PRODUCING HVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION, SHOWERS MAY BE ARRIVING LATE DAY FOR
HENDRY/GLADES/COLLIER FROM THE GULF WATERS, WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
TONIGHT...SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS AND BEGINS TO STRETCH OUT ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. COASTAL SHOWERS REMAIN.
TOMORROW...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL ENTER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY, WHICH WILL SHOVE THE RIDGE AXIS/SURFACE HIGH OFF THE EAST
COAST. THUS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, WINDS CONTINUE TO
LESSEN AND THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT INCREASES. WITH PWATS
REMAINING NEAR 2", SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.
FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT AND SUBTLE PVA ARRIVE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT STALLS, H5 TEMPS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION. LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. APPEARS
AS THOUGH A WEAK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP. BEETER CHC
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS DAY, DEVELOPING EARLY ALONG THE COAST
THEN PROGRESSING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
.LONG TERM (SAT-WED)...
THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK CLOUDY AND WET. FRONT IS
STATIONARY NEARBY, AND A ZONAL JET ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ABLE
TO TRANSPORT SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTO FL ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ECMWF
HAS SOME COPIUS RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY, BUT
GOOD RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY CONSIDERING THIS
PATTERN. MAY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. IN FACT, THE ECMWF IS NOW SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT AND IS MUCH MORE UNSETTLED ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE
GFS.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY GETS
SHOVED THROUGH SOUTH FL INTO MONDAY. 100KT JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH
THE GULF WILL PROVIDE A SUFFICIENT BUMP. MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR AGAIN LOOKS TO BE ON THE WAY BASED ON GFS/ECMWF/GEFS 0Z
SUITE INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE
CHANGE TO SAY THE LEAST AFTER A SIZZLING EARLY FALL.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADV CONTINUES FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN
MORE SO BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEN SPEEDS FALL BELOW 10
KTS. A FRONT STALLS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AND
SEAS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 78 86 71 / 50 50 50 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 79 85 72 / 50 50 50 60
MIAMI 87 78 85 74 / 50 50 50 60
NAPLES 89 73 85 72 / 20 30 40 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ650-
651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1143 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
Things are going about as planned this evening across central and
southeast Illinois with the current storm system. The mostly dry
period during the late afternoon/early evening has come to an end
across western sections of the forecast area as another main band
of rainfall spreads into the area. This band is expected to track
east for the rest of the night, eventually impacting the entire
area with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Otherwise gusty
southerly winds will persist through the night, with gusts as high
as 40 MPH likely. This southerly flow will keep temperatures very
mild for mid-November. with low temperatures no cooler than the
upper 50s.
Made a few adjustments to hourly PoPs to better reflect current
radar trends. Other parameters were in good shape and only
required a few tweaks.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
993 mb surface low pressure over central KS to eject into sw MN by
dawn Wed as 536 dm 500 mb low over OK panhandle moves to near the
NE/KS/MO border. A lull in the showers is occurring this
afternoon from I-55 southeast and this break could move into parts
of the IL river valley late this afternoon too. The HRRR model
seems to be reflecting this trend the best and followed it for
tonight`s precipitation forecast. Large area of showers over MO
into southeast IA and nw IL to spread eastward across central IL
tonight and overspread eastern IL late this evening and overnight.
Not much thunder activity so far today but SPC has general risk of
thunder over CWA into tonight and will continue to carry isolated
thunderstorms though diminishing thunder chances from west to east
later tonight. Up to an additional 1 inch of rain expected into
early Wed morning and this is falling on top of 1 to 2 inches that
has already fallen over the area since Monday. Will continue the
flood watch over sw half of CWA through 6 am Wednesday and may be
able to cancel early in western portion with 3 am forecast package
tonight as heavier rain band shifts into eastern IL later tonight.
Strong se winds 15-30 mph and gusts as highs as 30-40 mph to keep
mild lows in the mid to upper 50s which is a bit above normal
highs for mid November.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
A strong storm system will continue to impact central and southeast
Illinois to start the day Wednesday, although the steadier rainfall
should be limited to the far eastern extent of the forecast area.
While the heavier rains should be over or quickly ending on
Wednesday, the gusty winds will persist. In fact, as the associated
upper-level cold pool approaches, and surface cold front lags
behind, the steeper low-level lapse rates support even stronger
winds than today. Would not be surprised to see gusts to around 40
MPH for much of the day, and the need for a Wind Advisory will need
to be monitored closely.
Quiet and cooler weather will spread across the region behind the
major system for Thursday and most of Friday as high pressure builds
into the area. While temperatures during the period will be
significantly cooler than we have seen lately, they are much closer
to normal for mid-November.
Models are coming into better agreement regarding a weather
disturbance to end the week. A significant short wave is progged to
translate through the shallower broad trof across North America,
with the trof axis crossing the Midwest from Friday night into
Saturday. This short wave is expected to be accompanied a clipper-
type low pressure system as it moves through. The system is expected
to have precipitation associated with it, and most should fall on
the cool side of the system as is typical with clippers. While the
exact timing/track of the clipper is still in doubt, confidence is
building that most of the forecast area should see precipitation.
Thermal profiles support most, if not all, of the precipitation to
fall in the form of snow. However, if the system arrives early
enough Friday night, it may be warm enough for rain at the onset.
Also, given the strength of the wave, and CAA it its wake, expect
temperatures on Saturday to remain steady or fall as the system
clears the area. Many areas are not likely to make it out of the 30s
Saturday and Sunday. Overall, this system will need to be monitored
closely as it has the potential to bring the first accumulating snow
of the season to parts of the forecast area. However, the warm
ground temperatures should mitigate this threat to some degree.
Cooler than normal temperatures will linger through the end of the
forecast. An additional disturbance may impact the area by Tuesday,
but the current model consensus supports dry weather beyond Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
Rain continues to move across the area and should affect all TAF
sites overnight, but not ending til toward morning. Gusty
southeast winds will also continue, but should see them taper off
some during the morning hours. Based on radar mosaic, am going to
keep pcpn going all night and then forecast has pcpn ending from
west to east during the morning hours. However, with cyclonic flow
remaining over the area tomorrow, VCSH is warranted at all sites
during the day...ending around 00z. South winds will increase and
become quite gusty later in the morning and continue into the
afternoon. Believe 35-40kt gusts will be possible at all sites
during the day. Cigs through the day will be MVFR, though some
sites are VFR at the moment. With low level moisture hanging
around, thinking MVFR cigs will last through the day and into the
evening. Winds will taper as well after 00z, though still have
some gusts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ036-040>042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
444 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
A BAND OF RAIN... WINDY CONDITIONS... AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TO THE UPPER 60S EAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A LONG WAVE
TROF EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS REGION BY THU
MORNING. UPR LOW OVER KS LIFTING NNE WILL SHEAR OUT AS JET STREAK
PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW THIS MORNING DIGS UPR TROF OVER SWRN
CANADA SEWD INTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC... DEEP LOW OVER IA WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NNE INTO WRN ONTARIO. 75KT LLJ
OVER IL WILL MOVE E-NE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS BUT SHALLOW MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD KEEP SFC WINDS
BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE 20-25KT/G30-35KT RANGE WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS PSBL. LEFT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FCST CWA-WIDE AS
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WHICH COMBINED WITH MODEST FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN OCNL LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER ERN PORTION
OF THE AREA OF RAIN APCHG OUR CWA AND MODELS SUGGEST WK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONT TO ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME AS IT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING... SO HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS TO THE FCST IN THIS TIMEFRAME. LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NAM/GFS MOS TODAY WITH COOLER NAM/MET
SUGGESTING MUCH LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THAN GFS/MAV. NAM IS
RUNNING TOO COOL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ATTM... HWVR HRRR IS
SUGGESTING RAIN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR CWA BY 18Z WHICH
WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL RISES... THUS STAYED CLOSE TO GOING FCST WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE L60S WEST TO THE U60S EAST.
FRONTAL PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 00Z THU. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVG EAST FROM SWRN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MERGING
WITH ONTARIO LOW TONIGHT WILL PUSH A SECONDARY CDFNT ACROSS OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS. BRISK SWLY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND ONLY MODEST CAA... LEANED
TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES WITH LOWS FCST IN L-M40S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
WINTRY CHALLENGES THIS WEEKEND TAKE CENTER STAGE THIS PACKAGE.
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RACE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL
PERSIST AMONG THE ECMWF... SREF...CANADIAN GEM AND GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLES. THE OPERATION RUN OF ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE LOW TRACK BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST DYNAMIC RUN WITH THIS SYSTEM TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DROPPING BELOW 1000 MB. THE ECMWF WAS
ABOUT 9 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...SO TIMING
AND TRACK WAS STILL CLOUDED WITH UNCERTAINTY. THE FASTER GFS DOES
NOT SUPPORT MUCH SNOW...TOO MANY FACTORS WERE HINDERING DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH/DGZ INCLUDING MAX LIFT ABOVE THE DGZ AND RIMING BELOW
THE CLOUD LAYER. ALSO...WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL THWART SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE MUCH HIGHER. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE FIRST INVASION OF ARCTIC AIR THIS SEASON WILL CAUSE
HIGHS TO BE ONLY AROUND FREEZING SUNDAY. A MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT SET
UP SUNDAY....POOR FETCH BUT GREAT DELTA T VALUES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WINDS BACK AND INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
RISING OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS
THE LONGWAVE TROF AMPLIFIES ALONG THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
STRONG LOW OVER IA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NNE INTO
WRN ONTARIO TODAY. STRONG SE WINDS ACROSS NRN INDIANA WILL VEER
TO SOUTH THIS MORNING AND SW THIS AFTN AS THE CDFNT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND
OF RAIN WHICH SHOULD LOWER FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT
A SGFNT LLWS THREAT CONTG THIS MORNING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
455 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
THIS MORNING STRONG CLOSED LOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 00Z ANALYSIS ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOWING A
537MB HEIGHT WHICH IS ACTUALLY MIN FOR THIS DAY BASED ON SOUNDING
CLIMO. THIS JUST SPEAKS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS POTENT
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUT AREA TODAY. THIS
LOW IS PROGGED PHASE WITH BROADER UPPER LOW ACROSS CANADA AND
OVERALL BROAD TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TO MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE RIDGING HOLD ON A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COOLER AIR...THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY LOCKED UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
NOW THE DEEPER SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NNE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WHILE ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT TRACK
EAST. THIS WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER TODAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LETS TALK
WIND FIRST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BECOME EVIDENT THIS
MORNING IN THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW AND STRONG
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH STRONG JET
ENERGY ALOFT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAIN VIEW WINDS AT 850MB
INDICATING 70KT PLUS CORE RUNNING ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING 30 TO 45 MPH GUST OF
BLACK MOUNTAIN THIS MORNING AND WHILE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE
HIGH...AT OR BELOW 1000 FT IN GENERAL...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
HEIGHT TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS. ALL THIS SAID THINK WE ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH OVERALL TIMING OF HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
NOW LETS DISCUSS THE PRECIP FOR THE EVENT WHICH WILL BE THE MOST
WE HAVE SEEN IN AT LEAST A MONTH NOW AND AT LEAST DOUBLE OUR
MONTHLY TOTAL SO FAR FOR NOV. THIS BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS IS MAKING IT INTO FAR WESTERN KY THIS MORNING BASED ON
WSR-88D MOSAIC. AREAS IN FAR WEST ARE SEEING AROUND A INCH OF
PRECIP BASED ON MESONETS SINCE MIDNIGHT CST. NOW LOOKING AT RADAR
AND COMPARING SOME OF THE MESO MODELS THIS MORNING...THE ARW-NMM
SEEMS TO HAVE THE OVERALL BEST HANDLE ON TIMING. THE HRRR IS A BIT
SLOW BASED ON RADAR. THAT SAID OVERALL BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP...NEARER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 300MB JET TO THE WEST...AND PWATS IN THE 1.4
OR HIGHER RANGE WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR BNA BASED ON SOUNDING
CLIMO. GIVEN THIS DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
OF PRECIP...BUT PERHAPS A BIT SLOWER IN PROGRESSING IN OVERALL.
GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR BLEND FOR QPF...WHICH SEEMS TO
MATCH UP WELL OVERALL WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THAT SAID
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY A INCH TO INCH AND A
QUARTER...BUT FAR SE COULD STILL SEE A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING WHICH
MAY HOLD THEM A BIT LOWER BUT NOT BY MUCH.
NOW FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FRONT SHOULD WORK OUT OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING AND GRADIENT/WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS WOULD SUGGEST POSSIBLE STRATUS HANGING
TONIGHT OR PERHAPS FOG. RIGHT NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON LOWER CLOUDS
SINCE IT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN ON EXACTLY WHAT WILL OCCUR...WITH
CLEARING SKIES ARE QUICK BEHIND THIS FRONT DOWN STREAM. WHILE
WINDS WEAKEN WE SHOULD STAY SOME WHAT MIXED...BUT HIGH WILL BEGIN
NUDGING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
A RATHER BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE RETURNING NORTH. RIDGING AT THAT POINT
CENTERED NEAR CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NORTH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. BY FRIDAY THE BROAD TROUGH SHOULD
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
FROM THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS...INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CANADIAN
UPPER LOW AND SHARPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRI
EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THAT POINT...SC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST HEIGHTS ACROSS EAST KY SHOULD
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ON FRI ACROSS EAST KY. HEIGHTS SHOULD AGAIN
FALL AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN REGION FRI NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT INTO SAT EVENING WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR -9C OR -10C ON SAT
NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN NEAR THAT LEVEL INTO SUNDAY.
HEIGHT RISES ARE THEN EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS INTO AT
LEAST EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD
EASTERN KY. HOWEVER...ONE MORE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE LIMITED
THAN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY SO NO MORE THAN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED. HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE AGAIN AT THE END OT
HE PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING. THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO
MODERATE WITH 85O MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE 0C AND MAKING A RUN
TOWARD 5C BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER MILD IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD
OF THE SATURDAY TO SATURDAY EVENING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY
AS WELL. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW ON SAT EVENING WHERE IF THE
MOISTURE LINGERED LONG ENOUGH AS THE COLUMN COOLS FOR A FEW FLAKES
TO MIX IN OR AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO OR A FEW FLURRIES...
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAIN LOW HOWEVER...AS THE 0Z MODEL RUN
GENERALLY HAS THE LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT VERY QUICK...ECMWF...OR
PRESENCE OF ICE IN THE LOW CLOUDS PERHAPS ONLY FROM SEEDER FEEDER
IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR RIGHT AS THE MOISTURE DEPARTS. IF FLAKES DO
IN FACT OCCUR...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR AND BE EVEN COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT. BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST EASTERN VALLEYS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT. PENDING CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...SOME TEENS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GFS
BASED COOP MOS GUIDANCE FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS SUPPORTS TEENS
FOR SUN NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES THERE WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR
MON NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...REACHING THE 40S MONDAY AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE MEET WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH EVEN SOME
CLEARING SKIES BEING SEEN ACROSS THE REGION THIS HOUR. STILL
EXPECTING WIND TO BE A ISSUE WITH A FEW SITES ALREADY SEEING 15
TO 20KT GUSTS TONIGHT AND INCREASING LATER TODAY WITH MIXING FROM
JET ALOFT. THE JET ALOFT WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS TONIGHT WITH RESPECT
TO LLWS BEING A REAL POSSIBILITY...SO KEPT THAT IN FROM THE
PREVIOUS TAF. STARTED IT AT ALL SITES GIVEN WE WILL SEE THE JET
RAMPING UP OVERNIGHT FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES. BY LATER TODAY AS
MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THIS WILL BRING INCREASES IN THE WINDS...RAIN SHOWERS...AND
LOWERING CIGS. RIGHT NOW STICKING WITH MVFR BUT PERHAPS LOWER AT
TIMES WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. OVERALL DID OPT TO BRING WINDS DOWN AS
WE MOVE PAST THE 00Z TIME FRAME PROGRESSIVELY ACROSS THE TAF SITES
FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-108-111-114-116.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ087-088-118-120.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR KYZ104-106-107-109-110-112-113-115-117-119.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
348 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
THIS MORNING STRONG CLOSED LOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 00Z ANALYSIS ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOWING A
537MB HEIGHT WHICH IS ACTUALLY MIN FOR THIS DAY BASED ON SOUNDING
CLIMO. THIS JUST SPEAKS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS POTENT
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUT AREA TODAY. THIS
LOW IS PROGGED PHASE WITH BROADER UPPER LOW ACROSS CANADA AND
OVERALL BROAD TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TO MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE RIDGING HOLD ON A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COOLER AIR...THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY LOCKED UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
NOW THE DEEPER SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NNE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WHILE ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT TRACK
EAST. THIS WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER TODAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LETS TALK
WIND FIRST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BECOME EVIDENT THIS
MORNING IN THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW AND STRONG
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH STRONG JET
ENERGY ALOFT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAIN VIEW WINDS AT 850MB
INDICATING 70KT PLUS CORE RUNNING ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING 30 TO 45 MPH GUST OF
BLACK MOUNTAIN THIS MORNING AND WHILE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE
HIGH...AT OR BELOW 1000 FT IN GENERAL...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
HEIGHT TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS. ALL THIS SAID THINK WE ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH OVERALL TIMING OF HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
NOW LETS DISCUSS THE PRECIP FOR THE EVENT WHICH WILL BE THE MOST
WE HAVE SEEN IN AT LEAST A MONTH NOW AND AT LEAST DOUBLE OUR
MONTHLY TOTAL SO FAR FOR NOV. THIS BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS IS MAKING IT INTO FAR WESTERN KY THIS MORNING BASED ON
WSR-88D MOSAIC. AREAS IN FAR WEST ARE SEEING AROUND A INCH OF
PRECIP BASED ON MESONETS SINCE MIDNIGHT CST. NOW LOOKING AT RADAR
AND COMPARING SOME OF THE MESO MODELS THIS MORNING...THE ARW-NMM
SEEMS TO HAVE THE OVERALL BEST HANDLE ON TIMING. THE HRRR IS A BIT
SLOW BASED ON RADAR. THAT SAID OVERALL BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP...NEARER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 300MB JET TO THE WEST...AND PWATS IN THE 1.4
OR HIGHER RANGE WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR BNA BASED ON SOUNDING
CLIMO. GIVEN THIS DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
OF PRECIP...BUT PERHAPS A BIT SLOWER IN PROGRESSING IN OVERALL.
GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR BLEND FOR QPF...WHICH SEEMS TO
MATCH UP WELL OVERALL WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THAT SAID
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY A INCH TO INCH AND A
QUARTER...BUT FAR SE COULD STILL SEE A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING WHICH
MAY HOLD THEM A BIT LOWER BUT NOT BY MUCH.
NOW FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FRONT SHOULD WORK OUT OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING AND GRADIENT/WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS WOULD SUGGEST POSSIBLE STRATUS HANGING
TONIGHT OR PERHAPS FOG. RIGHT NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON LOWER CLOUDS
SINCE IT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN ON EXACTLY WHAT WILL OCCUR...WITH
CLEARING SKIES ARE QUICK BEHIND THIS FRONT DOWN STREAM. WHILE
WINDS WEAKEN WE SHOULD STAY SOME WHAT MIXED...BUT HIGH WILL BEGIN
NUDGING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
COMING SOON...
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE MEET WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH EVEN SOME
CLEARING SKIES BEING SEEN ACROSS THE REGION THIS HOUR. STILL
EXPECTING WIND TO BE A ISSUE WITH A FEW SITES ALREADY SEEING 15
TO 20KT GUSTS TONIGHT AND INCREASING LATER TODAY WITH MIXING FROM
JET ALOFT. THE JET ALOFT WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS TONIGHT WITH RESPECT
TO LLWS BEING A REAL POSSIBILITY...SO KEPT THAT IN FROM THE
PREVIOUS TAF. STARTED IT AT ALL SITES GIVEN WE WILL SEE THE JET
RAMPING UP OVERNIGHT FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES. BY LATER TODAY AS
MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THIS WILL BRING INCREASES IN THE WINDS...RAIN SHOWERS...AND
LOWERING CIGS. RIGHT NOW STICKING WITH MVFR BUT PERHAPS LOWER AT
TIMES WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. OVERALL DID OPT TO BRING WINDS DOWN AS
WE MOVE PAST THE 00Z TIME FRAME PROGRESSIVELY ACROSS THE TAF SITES
FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-108-111-114-116.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ087-088-118-120.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR KYZ104-106-107-109-110-112-113-115-117-119.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
315 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS LATER TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN STORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNLSOPING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
HELP SUSTAIN WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS AND VALLEYS
NEARBY...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE
THE LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HI-RES
AND RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATES STRONGER SHALLOW MIXING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THE RIDGE ZONES AND VALLEYS WITHIN.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE LIGHT
QPF ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWIFTLY CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO END THE PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEAR SEANONAL LEVELS.
AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO HELP
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW AND CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS DEPICTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AS TIMING OF
THE THE FRONT DIFFERS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLDER WEEKEND WEATHER UNDER A CROSSING UPR TROUGH IS FORECAST...BUT
ONCE AGAIN...MODERATION AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WRN CONUS LOW. THE
ONLY CAVEAT LOOKS TO BE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE ENCROACHMENT AS PER
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH MAY DELAY THE WARM UP AND SPAWN SOME
SHOWERS...CHCS FOR WHICH WERE LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY AS PER A
GUIDANCE BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH EXCEPTION FOR DUJ
WHERE MVFR STRATOCU WL CONT TO STREAM ACRS CNTRL PA. LOW LEVEL
JET ENCROACHMENT HAS INCRSD WIND SHEAR OVR THE REGION...INCLUSION
OF WHICH WAS CONTD UNTIL MIXING IMPROVES LATER THIS MRNG. SFC
GUSTS BTN 25 AND 30 KT CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH THAT PROCESS.
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS FORECAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PLOUGHS ACRS THE UPR OHIO REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHWRS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
417 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP S FLOW OVER
THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN A HI AMPLITUDE RDG ORIENTED FM JAMES BAY TO
THE SE CONUS AND AN UPR TROF IN THE PLAINS EXTENDING N OF A CUTOFF
H5 LO NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS STRONG S WIND BTWN THESE UPR
FEATURES...WITH 12Z H925 WINDS UP TO 40-45 KTS NOTED FM GRB INTO THE
LOWER-MID MS RIVER VALLEY...IS DRAWING SOME VERY MOIST AIR TOWARD
THE CWA. 12Z ROABS SHOW AN AREA OF PWAT BTWN 1.00 AND 1.50 INCH JUST
TO THE SW...AS MUCH AS 250-350 PCT OF NORMAL. THE 12Z APX RAOB DOES
SHOW AN AREA OF LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR IN NRN LOWER MI. SOME SCT
SHOWERS DID IMPACT MAINLY THE CENTRAL EARLIER...BUT ADVECTION OF
SOME LLVL DRY AIR FM THE DRY AIR SOURCE RELATED TO THE 12Z APX RAOB
TENDED TO DIMINISH THESE SHOWERS IN THE ABSENCE OF SGNFT DYNAMIC
FORCING SO FAR TO THE NE OF THE CLOSED LO IN THE SRN PLAINS. A
SHRTWV TRACKING N INTO MN IS CAUSING A MORE WDSPRD AREA OF SHOWERS
IN THAT AREA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS AND WINDS AS
UPR/SFC LO IN THE SRN PLAINS LIFTS TO THE N AND THRU MN ON WED.
ALTHOUGH THE UPR LO WL BE WEAKENING INTO WED AS THE DISTURBANCE
LIFTS TO THE N...THIS SHRTWV WL BEGIN PHASING THEN WITH ANOTHER
VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.
TNGT...UPR LO IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE N TO NEAR OMAHA BY 12Z
WED...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LO NEAR 990MB MOVING INTO MN. ALTHOUGH
MODELS SHOW SLOWLY FALLING HGTS AND HINT A WAVE OR TWO OF UPR
DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAY SWING N THRU THE AREA ACCOMPANYING
RELATIVELY WEAK SHRTWVS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...
ABSENCE OF PERSISTENT SGNFT DYNAMIC FORCING AND SOME LINGERING LLVL
DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT QPF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE DRY
AIR. LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST OF THESE DISTURBANCS WL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS EVNG. THE HEAVIEST RA SHOULD FALL OVER THE CENTRAL CWA
WHERE UPSLOPE SSE WINDS WL ACCENTUATE THE FORCING JUST TO THE W OF
THE DRIER LLVL AIR AND UNDER STRONGER H925 LLJ FLOW. WL GO WITH THE
HIEST CATEGORICAL POPS IN THIS AREA. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WL LIMIT
POPS/QPF OVER THE W. H925 WINDS WITHIN THE LLJ ARE FCST AS HI AS 40-
50KTS...BUT HIER STABILITY SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS UNDER THERMAL RDG WL
PREVENT THIS STRONG MOMENTUM FM MIXING TO THE SFC. STILL EXPECT
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS AS HI AS 30-35 MPH AT MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
INFLUX OF DEEP MSTR/UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW WL SUPPORT SOME FOG MAINLY
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL. EXPECT LTL DIURNAL TEMP
DROP...IN FACT TEMPS MAY RISE SLOWLY AS THE STEADY SSE WINDS ADVECT
WARMER/HIER PWAT AIR INTO THE AREA.
WED...AS LO PRES TRACKS FM MN INTO NW ONTARIO DURING THE AFTN...THE
WEAKENING CLOSED LO IS FCST TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING THRU
SCENTRAL CANADA...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING LO PRES CENTER TO THE NW
IN THE AFTN. UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY THE STRONG SSW FLOW AND SOME
DRY SLOTTING ON THE SE FLANK OF THE LO. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN
AREA OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF AN OCCLUDED FNT/BAND OF
HIER MID LVL RH...THE OVERALL DRY SLOTTING AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
PROGGED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE DAY WL LIMIT POPS AND QPF. FALLING
H85 TEMPS/SLOWLY DCRSG STABILITY IN THE AFTN AND APRCH OF PRES RISE
CENTER FM THE S MAY SUPPORT INCRSG SSW WIND GUSTS LATER IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
NAM SHOWS A DEEP AND BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. 12Z
THU WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
THU. MORE TROUGHING THEN MOVES IN FOR FRI NIGHT INTO THE AREA. NAM
BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF ARE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT AND WILL GO MORE WITH THAT
SCENARIO WITH THE SYSTEM.
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID HOIST UP A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A FAVORED SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION AND TIGHT GRADIENT
PRODUCING THE HIGH WIND GUSTS UP TO ALMOST 60 MPH. THE COLD AIR
COMES IN ON THU AND PCPN WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION FOR RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS THE CWA. COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THU NIGHT IN
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WITH WEST WINDS AND HAVE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN
THAT AREA AS WELL WITH THE STRONG WINDS. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z SAT THAT HEADS EAST
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -13C. A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION 12Z MON WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY 12Z TUE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WITH PCPN STAYING AS SNOW AS IT STAYS COLD ENOUGH FOR IT.
LAKE EFFECT PCPN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND THEN WILL START UP
AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THRU THIS MRONING...AFFECTING KSAW MOST PERSISTENTLY. KSAW WILL
HAVE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS DUE TO AN UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH SOME PERIODS OF LOW MVFR
AND PERHAPS EVEN LIFR. WITH WINDS HAVING MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AND WITH MAIN PCPN AREA JUST TO THE E...KIWD/KCMX SHOULD
SEE MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO THE MORNING HRS. AT ALL
TERMINALS...EXPECT LLWS THRU THE NIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40-
55KT OVER THE AREA PER LATEST KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE AND MODEL
GUIDANCE. PASSAGE OF OCCLUDED FRONT THIS AFTN WILL BRING
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KIWD/KCMX IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. AT
KSAW...IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOWARD EVENING. WINDS TODAY
WILL BE GUSTY TO 20-30KT AT KIWD/KCMX AND TO NEAR 35KT AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A LO PRES CENTER MOVING N THRU THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND A HI PRES CENTER OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
RESULT IN SSE GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER THE NCENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THRU WED. A WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE LO
TRACK AND INFLUENCE OF TERRAIN WILL HOLD WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE UNDER GALE FORCE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AS
IT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND STAYS
STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY INTO FRIDAY. SE GALES AHEAD OF THE LOW
SHIFT TO THE WSW-W ON THU BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOLID
GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS THU AFTN INTO THU EVENING OVER CNTRL LK SUPERIOR AS TROUGH
CROSSES. WILL NOT ISSUE A STORM WATCH ATTM AS STORM FORCE WINDS
WOULD ONLY BE AROUND 3 HR IN DURATION AND NOT TOO WIDESPREAD. LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE STORM WATCH IF EXPECTATIONS ON WINDS
CHANGE.
WINDS DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT LIKELY
WILL REMAIN AT GALE FORCE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT FOR EASTERN SECTIONS.
WINDS WEAKEN FURTHER BLO 25 KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
/3 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ251.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ246-
247.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THURSDAY TO 5 PM EST
/4 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ240>243.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1153 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP S FLOW OVER
THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN A HI AMPLITUDE RDG ORIENTED FM JAMES BAY TO
THE SE CONUS AND AN UPR TROF IN THE PLAINS EXTENDING N OF A CUTOFF
H5 LO NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS STRONG S WIND BTWN THESE UPR
FEATURES...WITH 12Z H925 WINDS UP TO 40-45 KTS NOTED FM GRB INTO THE
LOWER-MID MS RIVER VALLEY...IS DRAWING SOME VERY MOIST AIR TOWARD
THE CWA. 12Z ROABS SHOW AN AREA OF PWAT BTWN 1.00 AND 1.50 INCH JUST
TO THE SW...AS MUCH AS 250-350 PCT OF NORMAL. THE 12Z APX RAOB DOES
SHOW AN AREA OF LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR IN NRN LOWER MI. SOME SCT
SHOWERS DID IMPACT MAINLY THE CENTRAL EARLIER...BUT ADVECTION OF
SOME LLVL DRY AIR FM THE DRY AIR SOURCE RELATED TO THE 12Z APX RAOB
TENDED TO DIMINISH THESE SHOWERS IN THE ABSENCE OF SGNFT DYNAMIC
FORCING SO FAR TO THE NE OF THE CLOSED LO IN THE SRN PLAINS. A
SHRTWV TRACKING N INTO MN IS CAUSING A MORE WDSPRD AREA OF SHOWERS
IN THAT AREA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS AND WINDS AS
UPR/SFC LO IN THE SRN PLAINS LIFTS TO THE N AND THRU MN ON WED.
ALTHOUGH THE UPR LO WL BE WEAKENING INTO WED AS THE DISTURBANCE
LIFTS TO THE N...THIS SHRTWV WL BEGIN PHASING THEN WITH ANOTHER
VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.
TNGT...UPR LO IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE N TO NEAR OMAHA BY 12Z
WED...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LO NEAR 990MB MOVING INTO MN. ALTHOUGH
MODELS SHOW SLOWLY FALLING HGTS AND HINT A WAVE OR TWO OF UPR
DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAY SWING N THRU THE AREA ACCOMPANYING
RELATIVELY WEAK SHRTWVS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...
ABSENCE OF PERSISTENT SGNFT DYNAMIC FORCING AND SOME LINGERING LLVL
DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT QPF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE DRY
AIR. LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST OF THESE DISTURBANCS WL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS EVNG. THE HEAVIEST RA SHOULD FALL OVER THE CENTRAL CWA
WHERE UPSLOPE SSE WINDS WL ACCENTUATE THE FORCING JUST TO THE W OF
THE DRIER LLVL AIR AND UNDER STRONGER H925 LLJ FLOW. WL GO WITH THE
HIEST CATEGORICAL POPS IN THIS AREA. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WL LIMIT
POPS/QPF OVER THE W. H925 WINDS WITHIN THE LLJ ARE FCST AS HI AS 40-
50KTS...BUT HIER STABILITY SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS UNDER THERMAL RDG WL
PREVENT THIS STRONG MOMENTUM FM MIXING TO THE SFC. STILL EXPECT
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS AS HI AS 30-35 MPH AT MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
INFLUX OF DEEP MSTR/UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW WL SUPPORT SOME FOG MAINLY
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL. EXPECT LTL DIURNAL TEMP
DROP...IN FACT TEMPS MAY RISE SLOWLY AS THE STEADY SSE WINDS ADVECT
WARMER/HIER PWAT AIR INTO THE AREA.
WED...AS LO PRES TRACKS FM MN INTO NW ONTARIO DURING THE AFTN...THE
WEAKENING CLOSED LO IS FCST TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING THRU
SCENTRAL CANADA...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING LO PRES CENTER TO THE NW
IN THE AFTN. UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY THE STRONG SSW FLOW AND SOME
DRY SLOTTING ON THE SE FLANK OF THE LO. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN
AREA OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF AN OCCLUDED FNT/BAND OF
HIER MID LVL RH...THE OVERALL DRY SLOTTING AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
PROGGED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE DAY WL LIMIT POPS AND QPF. FALLING
H85 TEMPS/SLOWLY DCRSG STABILITY IN THE AFTN AND APRCH OF PRES RISE
CENTER FM THE S MAY SUPPORT INCRSG SSW WIND GUSTS LATER IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
...VERY WINDY ON THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SUB 980MB LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN TO SUB 970MB BY TIME IT
REACHES SOUTHWEST HUDSON BAY BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THIS DEEPENING
OF SFC LOW OCCURS AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES WITH WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. EXPECT
RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO BE ISOLD IN COVERAGE DUE TO
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAK FORCING OVERALL. OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT H85-H7 MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL PVA
FM TROUGH NEARING FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS INCREASE
BUT LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM SHOULD PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LOW LIFTING INTO ONTARIO CROSSES WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AROUND
MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT...CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT TO AROUND
DAYBREAK ON THU...AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WINDS IN LOW-LEVELS STAY FM THE W-SW SO
ONLY LAKE EFFECT OF NOTE WOULD BE OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY ON FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN MAINLY INTO
FAR EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN /APX CWA/.
BIG ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PRECIP OR SNOW /AT
LEAST INITIALLY/...BUT WINDS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS ALOFT 30-45 KTS/UP TO
45MPH...STRONGEST OVER LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. DUE
TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
PROFILE...SOLID PORTION OF THESE WINDS SHOULD MIX TO SFC IN FREQUENT
GUSTS. GFS IS MORE ON THE HIGHER END IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF WINDS
ALOFT...DUE TO STRONGER SFC LOW OVER HUDSON BAY COMPARED TO THE NAM.
GFS DOES LOOK SIMILAR TO ECMWF/GEM-NH IN PLACEMENT OF THE LOW ON THU
BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH INTENSITY. THUS...PROBABLY WILL NOT GO
COMPLETELY WITH GFS REALLY STRONG WINDS IDEA ATTM. RESULT WILL BE
ADVY SW WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WEST...ESPECIALLY ON THE KEWEENAW.
WINDY BUT STAYING BLO ADVY ELSEWHERE. NO MATTER HOW YOU LOOK AT IT
THOUGH...A VERY WINDY AND MUCH COLDER DAY IN STORE ON THU.
SFC TROUGH CROSSES LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN ON THU NIGHT WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE W THAN SW. H85 TEMPS BY LATER THU NIGHT WILL BE
DOWN TO -12C OR LOWER. WITH WATER TEMPS AROUND 5-6C PER LATEST GLERL
ANALYSIS...OVER-WATER INSTABILITY IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE
EFFECT. WEST WINDS FAVOR KEWEENAW FOR MOST OF LAKE EFFECT SOUNDINGS
DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARY FAVORABLE THOUGH AS THEY SHOW INVERTED V
PROFILE WITH CLOUD BASE AROUND H85/3KFT EVEN DURING THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING WHEN SHOULD SEE MORE MOISTENING IN LOWEST-LEVELS. LIKELY
TROUBLE IS WEST WINDS STAY 30-40KTS...CUTTING DOWN ON RESIDENCE TIME
AND EFFECTIVE OVER WATER FETCH. TYPICALLY WITH WINDS THIS
STRONG...THE LAKE EFFECT DOES NOT END UP TOO EXTENSIVE ON KEWEENAW
WHEN LACKING ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MOISTURE SEEN DURING
A LAKE ENHANCEMENT SETUP. CAVEAOT FOR POSSIBLY MORE LAKE EFECT COULD
BE IF AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS BTWN ONTONAGON AND
CALUMET AS SFC WINDS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BECOME MORE WSW.
FAVORED TIME FOR THAT POTENTIAL WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER
MANTIOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THOUGH MAIN LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP/MAINLY SNOW/ WITH THAT SHORTWAVE
LIKELY WILL STAY SOUTH FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI TO THE OHIO
VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...PASSAGE OF THE WAVE
WILL BRING WINDS TO MORE OF A NW DIRECTION. NW WINDS WITH H85 TEMPS
AT LEAST -12C IF NOT -15C AND MOISTURE TO INVERSION H8-H7/8-10KFT
AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD COMBINE TO INCREASE LES FOR AREAS FAVORED
BY NW FLOW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS STAYING CYCLONIC THROUGH THIS TIME ALSO
WITH SFC RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND SFC LOW DEEPENING OVER
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THAT SFC LOW TRACKS
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF LES FOR N-NW FLOW AREAS AS WELL. WEAK LES
SHOULD PERSIST INTO SUN FOR NW WIND FAVORED AREAS. BY AFTN WINDS
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE W AND INVERSIONS FALL TO 3KFT...SO INTENSITY
SHOULD TAKE A BIT HIT. WINDS BECOME SW LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND LES SHOULD FINISH UP AT THAT POINT.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY EARLY THANKSGIVING WEEK BECOMES MORE WNW-NW.
SERIES OF WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK
TROUGH PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED. WILL SEE TEMPS MODERATE COMPARED TO
THE CHILLY/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THAT AFFECT THE AREA THU/FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...APPEARS WARMER AND UNETTLED WEATHER
COULD SET UP INTO THANKSGIVING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECTS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THRU THIS MRONING...AFFECTING KSAW MOST PERSISTENTLY. KSAW WILL
HAVE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS DUE TO AN UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH SOME PERIODS OF LOW MVFR
AND PERHAPS EVEN LIFR. WITH WINDS HAVING MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AND WITH MAIN PCPN AREA JUST TO THE E...KIWD/KCMX SHOULD
SEE MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO THE MORNING HRS. AT ALL
TERMINALS...EXPECT LLWS THRU THE NIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40-
55KT OVER THE AREA PER LATEST KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE AND MODEL
GUIDANCE. PASSAGE OF OCCLUDED FRONT THIS AFTN WILL BRING
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KIWD/KCMX IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. AT
KSAW...IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOWARD EVENING. WINDS TODAY
WILL BE GUSTY TO 20-30KT AT KIWD/KCMX AND TO NEAR 35KT AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A LO PRES CENTER MOVING N THRU THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND A HI PRES CENTER OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
RESULT IN SSE GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER THE NCENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THRU WED. A WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE LO
TRACK AND INFLUENCE OF TERRAIN WILL HOLD WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE UNDER GALE FORCE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AS
IT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND STAYS
STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY INTO FRIDAY. SE GALES AHEAD OF THE LOW
SHIFT TO THE WSW-W ON THU BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOLID
GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS THU AFTN INTO THU EVENING OVER CNTRL LK SUPERIOR AS TROUGH
CROSSES. WILL NOT ISSUE A STORM WATCH ATTM AS STORM FORCE WINDS
WOULD ONLY BE AROUND 3 HR IN DURATION AND NOT TOO WIDESPREAD. LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE STORM WATCH IF EXPECTATIONS ON WINDS
CHANGE.
WINDS DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT LIKELY
WILL REMAIN AT GALE FORCE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT FOR EASTERN SECTIONS.
WINDS WEAKEN FURTHER BLO 25 KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ221-
248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1141 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
EVERYTHING PLAYING OUT QUITE WELL ASIDE FROM SOME TWEAKING HERE
AND THERE. WINDS GUSTING A LITTLE STRONGER IN SPOTS AND AS USUAL
THE CHANCES FOR SEEING RAIN/TIMING/LOCATION ALL SEEING SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. STILL SEE WING OF BETTER CORE OF WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND STRONGER FORCING WORKING NORTHWARD THROUGH 06-07Z
THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WHILE LINGERING CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
RESIDE ALONG THE NW LOWER COUNTIES AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF EASTERN
UPPER. DEEPER DRIER AIR STILL SLATED TO SWING UP ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA...SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH JUST SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD....ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW LOWER THROUGH
INDIANA.
DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY WORKS IT`S WAY INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH PERIODIC
RAIN/LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED.
THE MOST INTERESTING THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE
STRONG WIND THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING JUST ABOVE THE SFC...WILL
MIX DOWN WITH/BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT FOR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MANISTEE/GTV BAY AREA. SOME DATA SUGGEST WIND
ADVISORIES COULD BE MET...WHILE OTHER DATA FALLS SHORT. WILL
OBVIOUSLY BE TAKING A LOOK AT NEW DATA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
SE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WELL
IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION WITHIN MOIST WAA PATTERN. GULF IS WIDE OPEN AHEAD OF
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...TAPPING INTO DEEP MOISTURE WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO TELL THE TALE...SHOWING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM ERN TEXAS THRU MISSOURI...
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NORTHWARD INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA. WISCONSIN
HAS BEGUN TO GET IN ON THE ACTION...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP NOW THRU MUCH OF SRN AND WRN WISCONSIN. THIS
LEADING EDGE WILL PUSH NE INTO OUR CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.
DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND RATHER DRY SE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
TENDED TO ERODE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AS IT TRIES TO
PUSH NE INTO OUR CWA. PERSISTENT DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL FINALLY GIVE
WAY TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP PUSHING INTO OUR REGION FROM SW TO NE THRU
EARLY EVENING. NAM12...RAP13 AND HRRR ALL SUGGEST HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. ALL MODELS ALSO STILL SUGGEST A
LULL IN THE ACTION OVERNIGHT AS A SURGE OF DRIER AIR PUSHES THRU LWR
MICHIGAN. AGAIN...HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN WEST AS WELL AS
ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN WHERE THE ERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL HOLD ON. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POP FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...INCLUDING TIMING AND AMOUNT. BUT OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS...WITH HIGHEST POPS WEST AND A SIGNIFICANT DIMINISH
IN POPS OVERNIGHT. CERTAINLY NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH PLENTY OF
WARM AIR SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.
GUSTY SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL ACTUALLY FURTHER STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE LOW LISTS INTO
MINNESOTA. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PART OF OUR CWA TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE CONCERNS ON THE BIG WATERS.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: BIG CHANGES...WITH MORE
REALISTIC NOVEMBER WEATHER SET TO RETURN BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.
IMPETUS BEHIND SUCH CHANGES IS DEEP SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY DIGGING IN BEHIND IT...WILL PLOW A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT
AND ATTENDANT WIND/RAIN EVENT THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL POST FRONTAL SURGE OF CAA IS NOT TOO
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS. HOWEVER...AS NORTHERN
ENERGY AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT BECOME INCREASINGLY INVOLVED BY
FRIDAY...WOULD EXPECT CONDITIONS TO HAVE A MUCH MORE WINTRY FEEL TO
THEM (AND PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
THE WEEKEND...SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW FOR THOSE DETAILS).
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
(COVERAGE/TIMING/TYPE) AND WIND IMPACTS RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST.
DETAILS: LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY (AT LEAST FOR A WHILE) AS AREA
REMAINS IS DEEP SOUTH FLOW WILL OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING MINNESOTA LOW
PRESSURE AND APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT. MOISTURE PROFILES RATHER
REMARKABLE...UP NEAR 1.25 INCHES...WHICH IS IN RECORD SETTING
TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WAVE OPENING UP
JUST TO OUR WEST...OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY STRUNG OUT THROUGH THE DAY...WITH TWO CENTERS OF
HEAVIEST RAINS...ONE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST COLLOCATED WITH BEST MID
LEVEL SUPPORT...AND ONE WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTH IN VICINITY OF RER
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND BETTER FORCED LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
NOW...WITH ALL THAT SAID...SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS OCCLUDED FRONT WORKS OVER OVERHEAD MOIST
AIRMASS...BUT JUST NOT SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS
(DESPITE THE RECORD AVAILABLE MOISTURE). OTHER STORY WILL BE FAIRLY
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH OVERHEAD GRADIENT AND BUFKIT DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS AOA 30.
OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH AGGRESSIVE MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT ENDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST.
INITIAL POST-FRONT AIRMASS LOOKS A TOUCH TOO WARM FOR ANY LAKE
CONTRIBUTION...ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS PRIMARY COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS INITIAL SHOT OF CAA DOES SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT SHORELINE AREAS. NAM-WRF PARTICULARLY
ROBUST...SHOWING NICE LOW LEVEL JET CORE OF 45 KNOTS...AND GOOD
PORTION OF WHICH IS ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GALES LOOK A
CERTAINTY (SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW)...AND DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
FOR LOW END WIND ADVISORY GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MACKINAC COUNTY
SHORELINE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. TOO EARLY WITH TOO MUCH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY FOR
ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY HEADLINE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE.
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES DEFINITELY TREND
COLD ENOUGH (H8 TEMPS FALLING TO THE NEGATIVE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) FOR SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION
TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY TARGETING THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. SYNOPTIC MOISTURE PROFILES NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH
BETTER MOISTURE CONFINED TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND POINTS NORTH. INITIAL
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL TREND TOWARDS ALL SNOW BY LATER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE...WITH FLOW TRAJECTORIES NOT TARGETING THE INTERIOR
COLDER HIGHLANDS. STILL...SUPPOSE SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TIP OF THE MITT AND UP INTO THE STRAITS
REGION OF EASTERN UPPER.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND AN INCOMING WAVE FROM
THE PLAINS...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT TO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WILL START BY MENTIONING THAT THERE IS A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY TIMEFRAME AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH ON SOLUTIONS. WILL GO
AHEAD AND COVER SEVERAL FEASIBLE SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT...BUT FULLY
EXPECT SEVERAL MORE FLIP-FLOPS UNTIL AFTER THE WAVE STARTS GETTING
SAMPLED AFTER IT MAKES ITS WAY ON LAND FROM THE PACIFIC.
TWO DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES COULD POTENTIALLY PLAY OUT AT THIS POINT.
SCENARIO 1 FOLLOWS ALONG THE LINES OF THE 17/12Z GFS AND THE 17/12Z
ECMWF. THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
RATHER QUICKLY SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING FOR HEIGHTS TO
REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP TROUGHING
EXPECTED TO SURGE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS...THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH IL/SOUTHERN MI BRINGING A DEEPENING SFC LOW THROUGH SRN
MI/THUMB IN WHAT COULD POTENTIALLY PLAY OUT AS A SNOWY WEEKEND
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MI.
SCENARIO 2...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 17/12Z GEM...17/12Z UKMET AND
MANY 06Z & 12Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...LAGS THE DEPARTURE OF THE INITIAL
SYSTEM RESULTING IN ENERGY SHEARING OUT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
WITH THE SFC LOW TRAVELING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND A NEAR TO
COMPLETE MISS FOR SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ACROSS NRN MI.
BEYOND SUNDAY...COULD SEE BOUTS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS
TYPICAL AREAS AND PERHAPS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OR TWO (WITH ASSOCIATED
LIGHT PRECIP) SLIDING THROUGH WHAT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
...STRONG LLWS....
WAA REGIME OVERHEAD CONTINUES WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. MINIMAL MIXING TO THE SFC WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN LLWS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF TOMORROW. AN OCCLUDED FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP MIX DOWN THOSE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH...FORECAST HAS ROUGHLY 34-38KT
GUSTS...BUT WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS IF
ANYTHING. THESE STRONGER GUSTS NOT EXPECTED AT APN UNTIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL GUSTINESS WILL BE DROPPING OFF A
BIT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE AREA OF ENHANCED WAA/STRONGER FORCING RESULTING IN A BAND OF
RAIN HAS PRETTY MUCH CLEARED THE AREA...WHILE DEEPER DRIER AIR
WILL SWEEP IN OVER ALL AIRPORTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...THERE REMAINS A
SMALLISH CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTIER SHOWERS AT THE NW LOWER
AIRPORTS. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER
BAND/SWATH OF RAIN ARRIVES AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH MVFR CIGS A BETTER CHANCE. VSBYS NOT
EXPECTED TO TAKE MUCH OF A HIT...AT LEAST FROM A PREVAILING
CONDITION PERSPECTIVE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL DEVELOP FOR ALL NEARSHORE AREAS
BY WEDNESDAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE THRU THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...PRODUCING A TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. WAVES OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE LOW...IMPACTING ALL NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ322.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DICKSON
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
246 AM MST WED NOV 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHERE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS. THE MODELS WERE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE GFS HANDLING WINDS ALOFT
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE WRF.
A STRONG 140+ KT JET HAS PUSHED INTO THE PACIFIC NW ALONG WITH A
POWERFUL SHORTWAVE. EARLIER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING AN
AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE OVER WA...BUT THIS AREA
HAS DISSIPATED IN MORE RECENT IMAGES. THERE WAS A STRONG AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE ON WATER VAPOR IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER MT
WHERE KLVM AND NYE MET HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT WITH A 24 MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN KLWT AND KIDA. THE
SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT HAD JUST MOVED THROUGH KTFX AT 09Z. BEHIND THE
FRONT...PRESSURE RISES WERE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 MB/HR...WHICH WAS
VERY STRONG.
MODELS BRING THE JET SE OVER THE AREA TODAY WHILE WEAKENING. THE
JET WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
SHORTWAVE WAS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 11Z AND
18Z. THE HRRR SHOWED THE COLD FRONT WAS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA FROM 10Z TO 14Z...PASSING THROUGH KBIL AROUND
12Z. A FAST-MOVING BAND OF RAIN/SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. HAVE ADJUSTED THE WIND
DIRECTION THIS MORNING TO MAKE IT MORE-POST FRONTAL...AND ADJUSTED
THE POPS. THE RAP AND HRRR SHOWED THE PRESSURE RISES INCREASING TO
5 TO 7 MB/HR OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS HAD PRESSURE RISES OVER A MB/HR AT 18Z THEN
DECREASED THEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
MAY HELP OFFSET THE STRONG PRESSURE RISES AROUND 12Z...BEFORE
STRONG DIVERGENCE MOVES IN BY 18Z.
SO THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE HOW THE MORNING LIFT COMPETES WITH PRESSURE RISES AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES. REGARDLESS...THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THIS
MORNING. MODELS DECREASED THE WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WINDY. SOME HIGH WIND WARNINGS
MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE E...WHERE
MODEL SOUNDINGS DID NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS TONIGHT.
KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WHEN
PACIFIC MOISTURE RESURGES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. ARTHUR
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LEFT BEHIND FROM THE DYNAMIC WAVE OF TODAY.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE MOUNTAINS FOR LIKELY SNOW. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENT WITH THIS WAVE...AND DRAMATICALLY SO IN
REGARDS TO QPF. THE ECMWF WAS FARTHER WEST AND STRONGER WITH THE
ENERGY AND THEREFORE HAS QUITE A BIT MORE QPF BEING PRODUCED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS WAS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER
EAST WITH THE WAVE AND DRIER DUE TO MUCH LESS UPSLOPE. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. HARD TO IGNORE THE CONSISTENCY
OF THE ECMWF AND HAVE RAISED POPS BACK UP INTO THE SCATTERED
CATEGORY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
SNOWFALL WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...THERE
COULD BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY TYPE OF SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST. DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO GO TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PICK UP ACCUMULATING
SNOW WITH AMOUNTS AROUND 3-6 INCHES. TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
WILL LEAVE IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE THURSDAY NIGHT
WAVE EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. FRIDAY SHOULD BE CHILLY WITH A
1030MB HIGH SHIFTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DISAGREE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE SET TO MOVE DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF WAS STRONGER...BUT DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...BOTH MODELS
ARE DRY. WILL LEAVE THE DRY FORECAST IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH TRIES TO DEEPEN
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES. PUSHED THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEST...MAINLY
THE HIGH COUNTRY...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
TODAY WILL BE WROUGHT WITH WIND. GUSTS TO 68 KTS HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED AT KLVM OVERNIGHT AND THESE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AT KLVM BY LATE MORNING WITH
THE STRONGEST SUBSIDING A BIT...BUT STILL EXPECT GUSTS TO 50 KTS.
THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO KBIL/KSHR/KMLS 13-15Z WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL STAY STRONG MOST OF THE DAY
WITH A GRADUAL TAPERING OFF TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. A LINE OF
SHOWERS IS ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BRINGING THE
WIND. THE SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BUT
STILL WILL LOWER CEILINGS TO LOCAL MVFR WITH A BURST OF RAIN/SNOW
AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO ENHANCE THE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MAKE THEM A LITTLE STRONGER. EXPECTED
TIME OF THE SHOWERS IN KBIL WOULD BE AROUND 12Z. TWH &&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043 025/039 021/033 018/038 027/048 028/044 027/043
2/W 11/E 43/J 10/B 00/N 11/B 11/B
LVM 038 027/035 020/032 019/039 026/043 028/044 028/043
2/W 13/J 53/J 10/N 01/N 12/W 22/W
HDN 044 022/039 020/033 015/039 021/049 024/046 023/045
3/J 11/E 44/J 10/B 00/U 11/B 10/B
MLS 042 020/037 016/033 014/038 017/048 022/045 022/042
2/W 01/B 23/J 10/B 00/B 00/B 00/B
4BQ 042 020/037 017/032 012/038 017/049 022/048 022/048
3/W 11/B 33/J 10/U 00/U 00/B 00/B
BHK 041 017/033 013/030 012/034 016/045 022/044 021/041
2/W 00/N 22/J 20/B 00/B 10/B 00/B
SHR 042 020/038 019/032 011/038 015/050 019/045 021/047
2/J 11/B 34/J 10/U 00/U 11/U 00/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ZONES 28>30-34-35-38>42-56-57-63>66.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 31-32-36-58.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR ZONES
33-37.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ZONES 98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
RAIN HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW IN CAMBRIDGE LOCATED IN WESTERN
FURNAS COUNTY. THE 18Z NAM WAS INDICATING THAT A WARM LAYER
LOCATED AROUND 775 MB WOULD RAPIDLY COOL TO BELOW FREEZING WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION BAND BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. THIS COOLING IF IT
MATERIALIZES WOULD TURN THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW PRIOR TO 9 PM FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF AN ORD...KEARNEY...ALMA LINE. THE FACT THAT
CAMBRIDGE HAS TURNED OVER TO SNOW WOULD INDICATE THAT THE COOLING
OF THIS WARM LAYER IS NOW UNDERWAY AND EXPECT AN INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE ALREADY MENTIONED AREAS
SHORTLY. ONCE THE RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW THE SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 31 TO 33F RANGE AND SNOW WILL BEGIN
ACCUMULATING.
MOST OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE HASTINGS AND
GRAND ISLAND AREA...ALTHOUGH WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW LATE TONIGHT EVENTUALLY MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS GRAND ISLAND
AND HASTINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND POSITION OF A
POTENTIAL OF A DEFORMATION SNOW BAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE WIDE
VARIATIONS OF POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THAT THE CLOSED LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST INCLEMENT WEATHER WAS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER AND WILL EVENTUALLY PULL TO THE NORTHEAST.
WE ARE BASICALLY WAITING FOR SOME DYNAMIC COOLING TO OCCUR IN THE
ENTIRE COLUMN ABOVE THE SURFACE. UNTIL THEN...WE COULD FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST CWA. MODELS TEND TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY 9
PM...ENOUGH COOLING WILL OCCUR TO CHANGE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE WEST TO SNOW. WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES...THIS COULD MEAN A
RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT THE
DEFORMATION BAND COULD BE QUITE A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT. ALSO...OUR HIGHER QPF MIGHT OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN A VERY NARROW BAND. OUR MAJOR CONCERN IS WHERE THIS BAND
MAY PIVOT...WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER
DAWSON AND PERHAPS BUFFALO COUNTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY
HIGH WITH THIS. I EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
VALLEY...SHERMAN...BUFFALO...AND PHELPS COUNTY...ON TOP OF THE
ORIGINAL THREE IN OUR WEST. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WE COULD EVEN HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET BEFORE CHANGE
TO SNOW LATER THIS EVENING.
FARTHER EAST...NOT TOO MUCH SNOW IF ANY EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY NOT COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ALSO ANOTHER WRENCH THROWN IN IS ANOTHER PERTURBATION
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE CURRENT ONE THAT COULD GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...WE SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH THAT THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH AXIS...CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...FINALLY START TO SEE SOME RELIEF FROM
THE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER KS
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY KEEP 15 TO
20 MPH SPEEDS AROUND INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE MAIN SFC LOW SLIDING THROUGH PORTIONS OF ONTARIO AND UNDER A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY SPEEDS
LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS ON THURSDAY IS NOT
HIGH...ESP ACROSS THE WEST...WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED BY WHATEVER
SNOWFALL THEY GET THE REST OF TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
LOWER 40S IN THE NW...TO NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO AFFECT THE CWA AS WE GET
INTO FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED
LIFT VIA AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF
ACCUMULATION DUE TO ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE...BUT NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA COULD PICK UP AN INCH OF SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH /ROUGHLY I-80 AND
SOUTH/...WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN DAYTIME TEMPS...HAVE A RA OR RA/SN
MIX GOING.
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH
MON...REMAINS DRY. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY...UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH
THE GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A
CHANCE AT PRECIP AGAIN SUNDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME RUN TO RUN
SUPPORT /WASNT PRESENT IN THE 06Z RUN/ AND SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS
BEFORE INSERTING ANY POPS. EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND LOWER/MID 40S SUN...BEFORE
BUMPING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL /UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S/ FOR MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY/PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE WILL REMAIN
TRICKY THROUGH AT LEAST THESE FIRST 6-9 HOURS...BUT A FAIRLY
CLEAR-CUT RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE PERIOD. STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE IS AFFECTING THE AREA...WHILE A STEADIER BAND OF
ACCUMULATING SLUSHY SNOW HAS PIVOTED GENERALLY 20-50 MILES OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE TERMINALS. AS WE NEAR SUNRISE...THIS PRECIP BAND
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK EASTWARD AND COULD GIVE BOTH KEAR/KGRI A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING SOME PORTION OF THE
09Z-15Z TIME FRAME BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF BOTH SITES FOR
GOOD. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...EXPECT A VARIED MIX OF IFR/MVFR/LOW-END
VFR CEILING AND VFR/MVFR VISIBILITY...DEPENDING SOMEWHAT ON PRECIP
INTENSITY.
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...INTRODUCED A "VICINITY SHOWER"
(VCSH) MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PASSING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THESE SHOULD
BE GONE BY SUNSET AND EXPECT ASSOCIATED CEILINGS TO DROP NO LOWER
THAN LOW-END VFR.
AS FOR SURFACE WIND...DIRECTION WILL PREVAIL FROM A WEST-
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 12-16KT
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ039-046-060-061-072-073-082.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1229 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1225 AM WED...NO SIGNIF CHANGES. RDR SHOWS SOME SHRA
APPROACHING OBX AND SHLD ARRIVE LATER AND THIS MATCHES FORECAST
WITH SMALL POPS THESE AREAS DEVELOPING BEFORE MORNING.
PREV DISC...HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM EAST FROM
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LIGHT SHOWERS
THAT WERE OFFSHORE HAVE DISSIPATED BUT LATEST 3KM HRRR MODEL DOES
INDICATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM OFF THE WATER TOWARD
MORNING AND WILL KEEP SMALL POP IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD LEVEL OFF NEAR CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...COASTAL TROF/WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS AGAIN SUGGEST THAT COASTAL AREAS AND AREAS JUST INLAND WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED, PASSING SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF PER WEAK FORCING
MECHANISMS. DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW IN INCREASING WARMTH WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
WELL INTO THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...COMPARISON OF LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES SHOW UP AFTER THAT IN
THEIR HANDLING OF SURFACE AND UPPER FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF.
NO CHANGES MADE TO TIMING OF PRECIP. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY.
CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS BUT
OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RAPID DRYING WEST TO EAST. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK FRONT PASSING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY.
DRY AND CHILLY AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S COASTAL PLAIN TO UPPER 30S SOUTH COAST.
LOW TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING TO MID
30S WEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTH COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 AM WED...MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS OVER NW
TIER LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WED MORN AS HIGH RES MDLS SHOWING
STRATUS INCREASING THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR REST OF
REGION WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. SOME WDLY SCT SHRA EXPECTED OVER
REGION TODAY AS CSTL TRF/WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND BUT GIVEN LIMITED
CVRG WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS...EXPECT CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE. RAIN
WILL BE INCREASING FROM W TO E TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WITH SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND LATE.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUN/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDER POSSIBLE MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. VFR/DRY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM WED...NO CHANGES WITH SCA CONDITIONS ALREADY
OCCURRING CNTRL AND NRN WTRS AND SHLD DEVELOP SRN WTRS THIS MORN.
PREV DISC...GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAS PUSHED SEAS UP TO
AROUND 6 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND HAVE CHANGED START TIME
FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN THREE LEGS TO THE
CURRENT TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS OVERNIGHT. THESE INCREASING WINDS
WILL LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING FROM 4 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT TO 5 TO 8 FEET
WED.
LONG TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN/
AS OF 315 PM TUE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ENDING TIME OF ADVISORIES. SOUTHEAST WIND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT VEERS FURTHER TO SOUTH ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A RAPID SHIFT TO WEST...THEN FURTHER TO NORTH
ON FRIDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
PEAK ON FRIDAY AT 7-10 FEET NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 4-8 FEET SOUTH.
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON MARINE CONDITIONS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...RF/CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/BTC/CTC/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
348 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
CORRECTED ONCE MORE FOR WIND HEADLINE TIMING.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT OVERALL...BUT DETAILS ON WIND AND
SNOW ARE TOUGH. FIRST OFF...AREA OF RAIN ASSOC WITH MAIN UPPER LOW
IN KANSAS LIFTING NORTHEAST IS A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER
PROGGED. THUS DID PUSH THE HIGH POPS A BIT EAST AND EAST OF THE
RRV. CLOUD-CLEAR LINE FROM LAST EVENING HOLDING AS EXPECTED
HALLOCK-GRAND FORKS-FORMAN ND. SOME FOG NOTICED ESP EAST OF THE
RRV ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE LOW CLOUDS WITH SEVERAL SITES FROM
ROSEAU TO FOSSTON TO DTL DOWN 1/2 MILE OR LESS. ADDED AREAS OF FOG
THIS AREA THRU THE MORNING.
FOR THE DAY...THE RAIN WILL SPREAD UP THRU THE ERN FCST
AREA...WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST. CLEAR AREA OVER WRN
FCST AREA WHERE TEMPS DROPPED INTO THE LOW 20S WILL WARM UP AS
THERE IS A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND AHD OF THE FRONT AND COOLER
AIR. HRRR INDICATES A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ENTERING DVL REGION EARLY AFTN AND INTO RRV LATE AFTN. RE-WORKED
SOME POPS FOR THIS. MORE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THIS. RADAR OUT WEST
SHOWS PCPN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED AND THUS HAVE ONLY LOW POPS
FOR ANY AFTN PRECIP IN ERN ND.
ISSUE IS WIND. IT DOES APPEAR THAT JUST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW
HOURS THERE IS ENOUGH PRESSURE RISE, 850 MB COLD ADVECTION AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE TO BRING SOME OF THE 850 MB WINDS
(55-60 KT) TO THE SFC IN CNTRL ND AND WRN FCST AREA VERY LATE
AFTN-EVE. AS THESE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT FEEL FULL MIXING WILL NOT BE REALIZED AS MAIN CORE
OF PRESSURE RISES CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. REALLY TOUGH TO GET
WARNING CRITERIA WINDS AT NIGHT INTO THE RRV...AND FELT CHANCES
FOR THAT ARE QUITE LOW. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM A MUCH BETTER
BET. FELT TOO THAT PERIOD OF WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN FAR WRN
FCST AREA IS LIMITED AS WELL TO LATE AFTN-EVE AND THEN MORE
ADVISORY LEVELS AS FULL MIXING NOT REALIZED AS MUCH AS GFS
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISE COUPLET THAN WHAT I SEE FOR A
LONGER PD OF WARNING CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS. THIS IDEA GENERALLY
FOLLOWS LAV MOS GUIDANCE WELL WITH WIND GUSTS 45-49 KTS IN DVL
00Z-04Z PERIOD....THEN A BIT LOWER MORE LIKE 40-45 KT AFTER THAT.
INTO THE RRV AND GFK/FAR LAV MOS WINDS MORE SO 35-40 KT WIND
GUSTS. THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY.
DID NOT EXTEND ADVISORY FARTHER EAST INTO ERN HALF OF FCST
YET BASED ON COORDINATION. BUT SOME COUNTIES FROM THIEF RIVER TO
FERGUS FALLS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY AS THAT IS WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS THERE WILL OCCUR.
AS FOR WRAPAROUND PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW. PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING ABOUT A 12 HR PD OF SNOW 06Z-18Z THU IN NORTHEASTERN FCST
AREA. WPC SNOWFALL FCST SHOWS FAR NORTHEAST IN 3-4 INCH AREA ISOLD
5 MAYBE FLAG ISLAND/ANGLE INLET AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. MOST OF
THIS IS NOT TIL WELL PAST 00Z AND MORE SO 06Z AND AFTER AND THUS
ENOUGH TIME TO MONITOR FURTHER FOR ANY WINTER WX ADVISORY
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA OTHERWISE SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA AND SPREAD EAST AS UPPER
LOW DEPARTS SLOWLY THRU NRN ONTARIO THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THE TROF SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THICKNESS
VALUES INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
RETURNS...AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS POINT TOWARD A WARMING TREND FOR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LITTLE PCPN IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE EAST AS THE CLEARING LINE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST OVER
40KT BY LATE WED AFTERNOON NEAR KDVL...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
VALLEY WED EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR RANGE
IN THE EAST WED EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY THROUGH THE
REGION.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-049-052-053.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
MNZ001>004-007-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
342 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
CORRECTION ISSUED FOR TIMING OF HIGH WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY
CODING AT BOTTOM
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT OVERALL...BUT DETAILS ON WIND AND
SNOW ARE TOUGH. FIRST OFF...AREA OF RAIN ASSOC WITH MAIN UPPER LOW
IN KANSAS LIFTING NORTHEAST IS A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER
PROGGED. THUS DID PUSH THE HIGH POPS A BIT EAST AND EAST OF THE
RRV. CLOUD-CLEAR LINE FROM LAST EVENING HOLDING AS EXPECTED
HALLOCK-GRAND FORKS-FORMAN ND. SOME FOG NOTICED ESP EAST OF THE
RRV ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE LOW CLOUDS WITH SEVERAL SITES FROM
ROSEAU TO FOSSTON TO DTL DOWN 1/2 MILE OR LESS. ADDED AREAS OF FOG
THIS AREA THRU THE MORNING.
FOR THE DAY...THE RAIN WILL SPREAD UP THRU THE ERN FCST
AREA...WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST. CLEAR AREA OVER WRN
FCST AREA WHERE TEMPS DROPPED INTO THE LOW 20S WILL WARM UP AS
THERE IS A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND AHD OF THE FRONT AND COOLER
AIR. HRRR INDICATES A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ENTERING DVL REGION EARLY AFTN AND INTO RRV LATE AFTN. RE-WORKED
SOME POPS FOR THIS. MORE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THIS. RADAR OUT WEST
SHOWS PCPN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED AND THUS HAVE ONLY LOW POPS
FOR ANY AFTN PRECIP IN ERN ND.
ISSUE IS WIND. IT DOES APPEAR THAT JUST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW
HOURS THERE IS ENOUGH PRESSURE RISE, 850 MB COLD ADVECTION AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE TO BRING SOME OF THE 850 MB WINDS
(55-60 KT) TO THE SFC IN CNTRL ND AND WRN FCST AREA VERY LATE
AFTN-EVE. AS THESE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT FEEL FULL MIXING WILL NOT BE REALIZED AS MAIN CORE
OF PRESSURE RISES CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. REALLY TOUGH TO GET
WARNING CRITERIA WINDS AT NIGHT INTO THE RRV...AND FELT CHANCES
FOR THAT ARE QUITE LOW. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM A MUCH BETTER
BET. FELT TOO THAT PERIOD OF WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN FAR WRN
FCST AREA IS LIMITED AS WELL TO LATE AFTN-EVE AND THEN MORE
ADVISORY LEVELS AS FULL MIXING NOT REALIZED AS MUCH AS GFS
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISE COUPLET THAN WHAT I SEE FOR A
LONGER PD OF WARNING CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS. THIS IDEA GENERALLY
FOLLOWS LAV MOS GUIDANCE WELL WITH WIND GUSTS 45-49 KTS IN DVL
00Z-04Z PERIOD....THEN A BIT LOWER MORE LIKE 40-45 KT AFTER THAT.
INTO THE RRV AND GFK/FAR LAV MOS WINDS MORE SO 35-40 KT WIND
GUSTS. THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY.
DID NOT EXTEND ADVISORY FARTHER EAST INTO ERN HALF OF FCST
YET BASED ON COORDINATION. BUT SOME COUNTIES FROM THIEF RIVER TO
FERGUS FALLS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY AS THAT IS WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS THERE WILL OCCUR.
AS FOR WRAPAROUND PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW. PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING ABOUT A 12 HR PD OF SNOW 06Z-18Z THU IN NORTHEASTERN FCST
AREA. WPC SNOWFALL FCST SHOWS FAR NORTHEAST IN 3-4 INCH AREA ISOLD
5 MAYBE FLAG ISLAND/ANGLE INLET AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. MOST OF
THIS IS NOT TIL WELL PAST 00Z AND MORE SO 06Z AND AFTER AND THUS
ENOUGH TIME TO MONITOR FURTHER FOR ANY WINTER WX ADVISORY
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA OTHERWISE SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA AND SPREAD EAST AS UPPER
LOW DEPARTS SLOWLY THRU NRN ONTARIO THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THE TROF SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THICKNESS
VALUES INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
RETURNS...AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS POINT TOWARD A WARMING TREND FOR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LITTLE PCPN IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE EAST AS THE CLEARING LINE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST OVER
40KT BY LATE WED AFTERNOON NEAR KDVL...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
VALLEY WED EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR RANGE
IN THE EAST WED EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY THROUGH THE
REGION.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
MNZ001>004-007-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
337 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT OVERALL...BUT DETAILS ON WIND AND
SNOW ARE TOUGH. FIRST OFF...AREA OF RAIN ASSOC WITH MAIN UPPER LOW
IN KANSAS LIFTING NORTHEAST IS A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER
PROGGED. THUS DID PUSH THE HIGH POPS A BIT EAST AND EAST OF THE
RRV. CLOUD-CLEAR LINE FROM LAST EVENING HOLDING AS EXPECTED
HALLOCK-GRAND FORKS-FORMAN ND. SOME FOG NOTICED ESP EAST OF THE
RRV ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE LOW CLOUDS WITH SEVERAL SITES FROM
ROSEAU TO FOSSTON TO DTL DOWN 1/2 MILE OR LESS. ADDED AREAS OF FOG
THIS AREA THRU THE MORNING.
FOR THE DAY...THE RAIN WILL SPREAD UP THRU THE ERN FCST
AREA...WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST. CLEAR AREA OVER WRN
FCST AREA WHERE TEMPS DROPPED INTO THE LOW 20S WILL WARM UP AS
THERE IS A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND AHD OF THE FRONT AND COOLER
AIR. HRRR INDICATES A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ENTERING DVL REGION EARLY AFTN AND INTO RRV LATE AFTN. RE-WORKED
SOME POPS FOR THIS. MORE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THIS. RADAR OUT WEST
SHOWS PCPN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED AND THUS HAVE ONLY LOW POPS
FOR ANY AFTN PRECIP IN ERN ND.
ISSUE IS WIND. IT DOES APPEAR THAT JUST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW
HOURS THERE IS ENOUGH PRESSURE RISE, 850 MB COLD ADVECTION AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE TO BRING SOME OF THE 850 MB WINDS
(55-60 KT) TO THE SFC IN CNTRL ND AND WRN FCST AREA VERY LATE
AFTN-EVE. AS THESE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT FEEL FULL MIXING WILL NOT BE REALIZED AS MAIN CORE
OF PRESSURE RISES CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. REALLY TOUGH TO GET
WARNING CRITERIA WINDS AT NIGHT INTO THE RRV...AND FELT CHANCES
FOR THAT ARE QUITE LOW. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM A MUCH BETTER
BET. FELT TOO THAT PERIOD OF WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN FAR WRN
FCST AREA IS LIMITED AS WELL TO LATE AFTN-EVE AND THEN MORE
ADVISORY LEVELS AS FULL MIXING NOT REALIZED AS MUCH AS GFS
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISE COUPLET THAN WHAT I SEE FOR A
LONGER PD OF WARNING CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS. THIS IDEA GENERALLY
FOLLOWS LAV MOS GUIDANCE WELL WITH WIND GUSTS 45-49 KTS IN DVL
00Z-04Z PERIOD....THEN A BIT LOWER MORE LIKE 40-45 KT AFTER THAT.
INTO THE RRV AND GFK/FAR LAV MOS WINDS MORE SO 35-40 KT WIND
GUSTS. THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY.
DID NOT EXTEND ADVISORY FARTHER EAST INTO ERN HALF OF FCST
YET BASED ON COORDINATION. BUT SOME COUNTIES FROM THIEF RIVER TO
FERGUS FALLS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY AS THAT IS WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS THERE WILL OCCUR.
AS FOR WRAPAROUND PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW. PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING ABOUT A 12 HR PD OF SNOW 06Z-18Z THU IN NORTHEASTERN FCST
AREA. WPC SNOWFALL FCST SHOWS FAR NORTHEAST IN 3-4 INCH AREA ISOLD
5 MAYBE FLAG ISLAND/ANGLE INLET AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. MOST OF
THIS IS NOT TIL WELL PAST 00Z AND MORE SO 06Z AND AFTER AND THUS
ENOUGH TIME TO MONITOR FURTHER FOR ANY WINTER WX ADVISORY
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA OTHERWISE SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA AND SPREAD EAST AS UPPER
LOW DEPARTS SLOWLY THRU NRN ONTARIO THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THE TROF SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THICKNESS
VALUES INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
RETURNS...AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS POINT TOWARD A WARMING TREND FOR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LITTLE PCPN IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE EAST AS THE CLEARING LINE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST OVER
40KT BY LATE WED AFTERNOON NEAR KDVL...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
VALLEY WED EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR RANGE
IN THE EAST WED EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY THROUGH THE
REGION.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
MNZ001>004-007-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
955 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER TODAY...
THEN A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS
FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN ZONES AT SOME POINT DURING THE
WEEKEND. DRY...COOL WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED ACROSS N CT AND W MA THIS MORNING. RAP AND
NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB PICKING
UP ON THESE CLOUDS AND SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND INTO RI
AND CENTRAL MA THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO SE MA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MOST SUNSHINE THROUGH TODAY WILL BE ACROSS E MA. ADJUSTED
SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE
WEST DUE TO CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...MILDEST TEMPS ACROSS E MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL LOTS OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES.
RAINFALL CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUDS COULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND. EXPECTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MIN
TEMPERATURES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS
WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RAIN LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* SEASONABLY COOL OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MON
* SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...18/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLANDS WEATHER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BETWEEN
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PWATS 2 TO 3
STD ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ENOUGH FORCING TO
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAINFALL.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. THE MODELS HAVE FLIP
FLOPPED FROM LAST NIGHT WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED OUT OF THE GFS
/OVER 2 INCHES/ VERSUS ABOUT AN INCH OUT OF THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE
LAST FEW STORMS UNDER PERFORMING AND THE GFS BEING THE OUTLIER FOR
THIS STORM THE LAST FEW RUNS...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE WPC QPF
WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A BLEND. THIS KEEPS RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THE INCH TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE.
DESPITE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WARMER TEMPERATURES JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP THESE STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE GFS MOVES HIGH PRESSURE OUT QUICKLY AND BRINGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH BOTH
DAYS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...BOTH
MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT SOME PRECIP...MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BUT REACHING DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MOSTLY RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A FEW SNOW FLAKES
COULD MIX IN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE MODELS FOR THIS TIME FRAME DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES EARLIER ON.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST MONDAY BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL WEATHER TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...MVFR CIGS ACROSS CT VALLEY AND W MA WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
INTO RI AND CENTRAL MA. REMAINING VFR E MA.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS EXPANDING EAST ACROSS SNE
BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LOW PROB FOR IFR CIGS W NEW ENG
LATE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE W NEW ENG LATE.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDELY RANGING CONDITIONS. VFR
MORE LIKELY EAST...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...WHICH COULD DROP TO
IFR...IN WIDESPREAD SHRA FARTHER WEST. LOW PROBABILITY FOR
ISOLATED TSRA WEST LATE.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN WIDESPREAD SHRA AND AREAS OF FOG. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT A
LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/SHSN ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES SOMETIME SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER THROUGH TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RATHER
TRANQUIL SEAS. SE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DEVELOPING OVER RI COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
S-SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED
FRONT. SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS. THEY SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
WESTERLY MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ231>233-250-251-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
618 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND MOVE NEAR SOME OF
THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS MORNING, MOST LIKELY FLL/FXE/PBI.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN 30 KT GUSTS AND BRIEF IFR/MVFR
CIG/VIS MAY OCCUR. SHOWERS CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT LESS TODAY FURTHER
SOUTH/THIS AFTERNOON BUT CAN`T BE RULED OUT. VCSH WAS USED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE E AROUND 15 KTS
WITH 25 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI NIGHT)...
TODAY...AS THE WIND PROFILE VEERS SLIGHTLY TODAY TO THE SE, IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND WESTERN
GULF COLD FRONT, A SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
BE DRAWN INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MODEL PWATS RISE TDY AND ARE
CLOSE TO 2" BY 0Z THURS. HRRR AND OTHER HI RES MODELS ARE MUCH
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY, THAN YESTERDAY. THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE
RATHER DRY NAM/GFS. MOST ACTIVITY IS DEPICTED ACROSS BROWARD AND
PALM BEACH COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN GUIDANCE, STILL CAN`T RULE OUT SOME DEEPER SHOWERS
TRAINING OVER PARTS OF THE EAST COAST PRODUCING HVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION, SHOWERS MAY BE ARRIVING LATE DAY FOR
HENDRY/GLADES/COLLIER FROM THE GULF WATERS, WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
TONIGHT...SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS AND BEGINS TO STRETCH OUT ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. COASTAL SHOWERS REMAIN.
TOMORROW...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL ENTER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY, WHICH WILL SHOVE THE RIDGE AXIS/SURFACE HIGH OFF THE EAST
COAST. THUS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, WINDS CONTINUE TO
LESSEN AND THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT INCREASES. WITH PWATS
REMAINING NEAR 2", SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.
FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT AND SUBTLE PVA ARRIVE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT STALLS, H5 TEMPS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION. LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. APPEARS
AS THOUGH A WEAK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP. BETTER CHC
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS DAY, DEVELOPING EARLY ALONG THE COAST
THEN PROGRESSING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM (SAT-WED)...
THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK CLOUDY AND WET. FRONT IS
STATIONARY NEARBY, AND A ZONAL JET ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ABLE
TO TRANSPORT SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTO FL ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ECMWF
HAS SOME COPIOUS RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY, BUT
GOOD RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY CONSIDERING THIS
PATTERN. MAY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. IN FACT, THE ECMWF IS NOW SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT AND IS MUCH MORE UNSETTLED ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE
GFS.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY GETS
SHOVED THROUGH SOUTH FL INTO MONDAY. 100KT JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH
THE GULF WILL PROVIDE A SUFFICIENT BUMP. MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR AGAIN LOOKS TO BE ON THE WAY BASED ON GFS/ECMWF/GEFS 0Z
SUITE INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE
CHANGE TO SAY THE LEAST AFTER A SIZZLING EARLY FALL.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADV CONTINUES FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN
MORE SO BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEN SPEEDS FALL BELOW 10
KTS. A FRONT STALLS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AND
SEAS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 78 86 71 / 50 50 50 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 79 85 72 / 50 50 50 60
MIAMI 87 78 85 74 / 50 50 50 60
NAPLES 89 73 85 72 / 20 30 40 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ630-
650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
559 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
A BAND OF RAIN... WINDY CONDITIONS... AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TO THE UPPER 60S EAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A LONG WAVE
TROF EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS REGION BY THU
MORNING. UPR LOW OVER KS LIFTING NNE WILL SHEAR OUT AS JET STREAK
PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW THIS MORNING DIGS UPR TROF OVER SWRN
CANADA SEWD INTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC... DEEP LOW OVER IA WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NNE INTO WRN ONTARIO. 75KT LLJ
OVER IL WILL MOVE E-NE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS BUT SHALLOW MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD KEEP SFC WINDS
BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE 20-25KT/G30-35KT RANGE WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS PSBL. LEFT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FCST CWA-WIDE AS
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WHICH COMBINED WITH MODEST FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN OCNL LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER ERN PORTION
OF THE AREA OF RAIN APCHG OUR CWA AND MODELS SUGGEST WK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONT TO ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME AS IT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING... SO HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS TO THE FCST IN THIS TIMEFRAME. LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NAM/GFS MOS TODAY WITH COOLER NAM/MET
SUGGESTING MUCH LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THAN GFS/MAV. NAM IS
RUNNING TOO COOL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ATTM... HWVR HRRR IS
SUGGESTING RAIN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR CWA BY 18Z WHICH
WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL RISES... THUS STAYED CLOSE TO GOING FCST WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE L60S WEST TO THE U60S EAST.
FRONTAL PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 00Z THU. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVG EAST FROM SWRN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MERGING
WITH ONTARIO LOW TONIGHT WILL PUSH A SECONDARY CDFNT ACROSS OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS. BRISK SWLY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND ONLY MODEST CAA... LEANED
TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES WITH LOWS FCST IN L-M40S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
WINTRY CHALLENGES THIS WEEKEND TAKE CENTER STAGE THIS PACKAGE.
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RACE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL
PERSIST AMONG THE ECMWF... SREF...CANADIAN GEM AND GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLES. THE OPERATION RUN OF ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE LOW TRACK BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST DYNAMIC RUN WITH THIS SYSTEM TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DROPPING BELOW 1000 MB. THE ECMWF WAS
ABOUT 9 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...SO TIMING
AND TRACK WAS STILL CLOUDED WITH UNCERTAINTY. THE FASTER GFS DOES
NOT SUPPORT MUCH SNOW...TOO MANY FACTORS WERE HINDERING DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH/DGZ INCLUDING MAX LIFT ABOVE THE DGZ AND RIMING BELOW
THE CLOUD LAYER. ALSO...WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL THWART SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE MUCH HIGHER. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE FIRST INVASION OF ARCTIC AIR THIS SEASON WILL CAUSE
HIGHS TO BE ONLY AROUND FREEZING SUNDAY. A MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT SET
UP SUNDAY....POOR FETCH BUT GREAT DELTA T VALUES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WINDS BACK AND INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
RISING OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS
THE LONGWAVE TROF AMPLIFIES ALONG THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
75KT LLJ OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST THIS AFTN BUT MIXING WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH FROPA THIS AFTN...
SO GUSTS IN THE 30-35KT RANGE PSBL THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS PSBL. SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS
MORNING MAY RESULT IN SGFNT LLWS. SCT SHRA AND A FEW TS OVER NWRN
INDIANA SHOULD BE E-NE OF SBN BY 12Z WITH THE MORE SOLID BAND OF
RAIN TO THE WEST OVERSPREADING NRN INDIANA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
TS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS MORNING BUT TOO SMALL OF A POINT CHC
TO MENTION IN TAFS. STILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND CONTG POST FRONTAL INTO THIS EVE WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY THIS TIME THU.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
554 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN KS
WITH MOIST CONVEYOR FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THE SURFACE DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IA WITH SECONDARY WEAK LOW OVER NORTHEAST
KS ATTENDANT TO NEAR STACKED SYSTEM. APPROACHING DRY SLOT AND
ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS AIDING NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS
ARCING INTO EASTERN IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN KS WILL OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE NEWD TO
VICINITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYS END IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
INTERACTION/PHASING WILL RESULT IN MORE PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS.
TODAY... ARCING BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT EASTERN IA AND
NORTHWEST IL NEXT 1-2+ HOURS... AND CONTINUE TO BE FOLLOWED BY
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH DRY SLOT. HOWEVER... AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS WRAP BACK AROUND INTO THE
AREA TODAY ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS WITH SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED OVER
NORTHWEST 1/2 TO POSSIBLY 2/3RDS OF CWA. HIGHS FOR THE DAY HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED MOST AREAS AND WILL JUST BE STEADY DROP ON TEMPS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION BEFORE TEMPS LEVEL OFF THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. EXPECT BRISK TO
WINDY CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BY LATER THIS AM THROUGH AFTERNOON
WITH MIXING WITH RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING POTENTIAL TO TICKLE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES WITH ROUGHLY 30-35 KTS SHOWN
THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AND 40-45+ KTS SITTING ATOP THE MIXED
LAYER. JUST HOW DEEP WE MIX WILL BE UNCERTAIN DUE TO CLOUD
COVER/TRENDS ... AND THUS REASON FOR NOT GOING WITH ADVISORY
ATTIM.
TONIGHT... SOME SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHERN CWA TO TAPER OFF BY
LATE EVE WITH INCOMING SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS IN
WAKE OF WEAKENING LOW. STILL BRISK AT TIMES WITH LINGERING
GRADIENT. COLDER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
THURSDAY...TIGHT CYCLONIC LLVL FLOW SOUTH OF NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS
LONG WAVE TROF CENTER WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY THU WITH
SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND GUSTS TO
45 MPH...NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S DESPITE
SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING. IF SFC WINDS CAN DECOUPLE ENOUGH ALONG
WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER PASSING RIDGE LOBE...LOW TEMPS BY EARLY FRI
MORNING TO BE DOWN IN THE 20S ACRS MUCH OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALL EYES TURN TO A POTENTIAL LATE FALL SNOW
SYSTEM THIS PERIOD...AS A WAVE CURRENTLY ACRS THE GULF OF AK DIGS
DOWN IN FRESHLY ESTABLISHED COLD CORE L/W TROF ACRS THE MID CONUS.
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT STILL BEING OFF
SHORE AND NOT REALLY SAMPLED BY LATEST MODEL INPUT DATA YET...MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE PRIME LLVL BAROCLINICITY LAYS OUT GENERALLY
FROM WEST-TO-EAST AND MID/UPPER JET PROPAGATION PATH OCCURS. LATEST
SUITE OF 00Z RUNS INDICATE MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH THIS
HANDLING WITH LARGE VARIANCES FROM EACH OTHER IN TIMING...STRENGTH
AND HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THE LOW GENERATING THE SNOW OCCURS. THE
00Z NAM IS THE FARTHEST TO THE NORTH BUT TRANSITIONS LLVL THERMAL
PARAMETERS COOLER FOR MAINLY SNOW IN A TYPE OF ADVECTION WING MOVING
IN ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING FRI AFTERNOON...CONTINUING WELL INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST. IT/S MAIN DEF ZONE OF SNOW
OCCURS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DVN CWA LATER FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT MORNING. THE 00Z GFS IS THE FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH...MOST PROGRESSIVE
BUT HAS ENOUGH PRE-WAVE WAA FOR RAIN OR A MIX SOUTH OF I80...BUT
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW NORTH OF I80 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUM BY 00Z SAT. IT/S SNOW ALGORITHM THEN PRODUCES A SWATH OF 4-8
INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY SAT MORNING WHEN THE SYSTEM MAKES
IT/S WAY OFF TO THE EAST. JUST A FEW INCHES SOUTH OF I80 BY SAT AM.
THE 00Z ECMWF SURPRISINGLY COMES IN STRONGER/SLOWER WITH DEEPENING
THE LLVL CYCLONE ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA LATER FRI NIGHT AND ROLLS IT
UP ACRS SOUTHERN LK MI BY 18Z SAT. WITH IT/S COLD PROFILES FOR
MAINLY ALL SNOW WITH THE PRECIP EVENT...IT/S SNOW ALGORITHM PRODUCES
4-7+ INCHES WITH IT/S DEF ZONE BY SAT MORNING ACRS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE DVN CWA...BIGGER TOTALS ACRS SOUTHERN WI. STRONG IN-WRAPPING
WINDS OF THE DEEPER ECMWF COULD ALSO MAKE FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING.
FOR NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND THE SYSTEM STILL OFF SHORE...WILL
ADVERTISE A BIT OF A MIX IN THE SOUTH WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
CWA-WIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SOME CONCERN HOW MUCH MOISTURE
DRAW FROM THE SOUTH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AS WELL TO PRODUCE SUCH
BIG SNOW TOTALS...BUT IF TENDS CONTINUE THE CWA WILL LOOK TO BE IN
LINE FOR AT LEAST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SNOW EVENT WITH A CHANCE
FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET IN OR NEAR THE FCST AREA. WITH ANY
KIND OF SNOW COVER...THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR SEEPING DOWN INTO THE
TROF BASE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WOULD MAKE FOR HIGHS SAT ONLY
IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH...TO MID-UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH. WIND
DROP OFF UNDER CLEAR SKIES SAT NIGHT WOULD MAKE FOR SEASONABLY COLD
LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS...AND SOME SNOW COVER OF AT LEAST 2-4
INCHES WOULD MAKE FOR SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH
BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS HAVING TROUBLE RECOVERING MUCH OUT OF THE
MID 30S ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS PERIOD TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH A TEMP
MODERATION INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD POOL SHIFTS EAST ACRS THE GRT
LKS AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS UP THE MS RVR VALLEY UNDER RE-
ESTABLISHING BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACRS THE CONUS. HIGH TEMPS TO
RECOVER BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE
UNDER SUCH A SYNOPTIC REGIME CHANGE. ..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY MID AM AT 15-30 KTS AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER INTO LOWER END VFR TO MVFR RANGE
TODAY WITH A FEW SPOKES OF LIGHTER SHOWERS ROTATING ACROSS
AREA AROUND A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. TONIGHT WILL
SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
406 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN KS
WITH MOIST CONVEYOR FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THE SURFACE DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IA WITH SECONDARY WEAK LOW OVER NORTHEAST
KS ATTENDANT TO NEAR STACKED SYSTEM. APPROACHING DRY SLOT AND
ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS AIDING NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS
ARCING INTO EASTERN IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN KS WILL OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE NEWD TO
VICINITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYS END IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
INTERACTION/PHASING WILL RESULT IN MORE PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS.
TODAY... ARCING BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT EASTERN IA AND
NORTHWEST IL NEXT 1-2+ HOURS... AND CONTINUE TO BE FOLLOWED BY
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH DRY SLOT. HOWEVER... AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS WRAP BACK AROUND INTO THE
AREA TODAY ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS WITH SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED OVER
NORTHWEST 1/2 TO POSSIBLY 2/3RDS OF CWA. HIGHS FOR THE DAY HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED MOST AREAS AND WILL JUST BE STEADY DROP ON TEMPS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION BEFORE TEMPS LEVEL OFF THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. EXPECT BRISK TO
WINDY CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BY LATER THIS AM THROUGH AFTERNOON
WITH MIXING WITH RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING POTENTIAL TO TICKLE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES WITH ROUGHLY 30-35 KTS SHOWN
THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AND 40-45+ KTS SITTING ATOP THE MIXED
LAYER. JUST HOW DEEP WE MIX WILL BE UNCERTAIN DUE TO CLOUD
COVER/TRENDS ... AND THUS REASON FOR NOT GOING WITH ADVISORY
ATTIM.
TONIGHT... SOME SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHERN CWA TO TAPER OFF BY
LATE EVE WITH INCOMING SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS IN
WAKE OF WEAKENING LOW. STILL BRISK AT TIMES WITH LINGERING
GRADIENT. COLDER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
THURSDAY...TIGHT CYCLONIC LLVL FLOW SOUTH OF NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS
LONG WAVE TROF CENTER WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY THU WITH
SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND GUSTS TO
45 MPH...NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S DESPITE
SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING. IF SFC WINDS CAN DECOUPLE ENOUGH ALONG
WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER PASSING RIDGE LOBE...LOW TEMPS BY EARLY FRI
MORNING TO BE DOWN IN THE 20S ACRS MUCH OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALL EYES TURN TO A POTENTIAL LATE FALL SNOW
SYSTEM THIS PERIOD...AS A WAVE CURRENTLY ACRS THE GULF OF AK DIGS
DOWN IN FRESHLY ESTABLISHED COLD CORE L/W TROF ACRS THE MID CONUS.
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT STILL BEING OFF
SHORE AND NOT REALLY SAMPLED BY LATEST MODEL INPUT DATA YET...MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE PRIME LLVL BAROCLINICITY LAYS OUT GENERALLY
FROM WEST-TO-EAST AND MID/UPPER JET PROPAGATION PATH OCCURS. LATEST
SUITE OF 00Z RUNS INDICATE MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH THIS
HANDLING WITH LARGE VARIANCES FROM EACH OTHER IN TIMING...STRENGTH
AND HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THE LOW GENERATING THE SNOW OCCURS. THE
00Z NAM IS THE FARTHEST TO THE NORTH BUT TRANSITIONS LLVL THERMAL
PARAMETERS COOLER FOR MAINLY SNOW IN A TYPE OF ADVECTION WING MOVING
IN ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING FRI AFTERNOON...CONTINUING WELL INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST. IT/S MAIN DEF ZONE OF SNOW
OCCURS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DVN CWA LATER FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT MORNING. THE 00Z GFS IS THE FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH...MOST PROGRESSIVE
BUT HAS ENOUGH PRE-WAVE WAA FOR RAIN OR A MIX SOUTH OF I80...BUT
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW NORTH OF I80 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUM BY 00Z SAT. IT/S SNOW ALGORITHM THEN PRODUCES A SWATH OF 4-8
INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY SAT MORNING WHEN THE SYSTEM MAKES
IT/S WAY OFF TO THE EAST. JUST A FEW INCHES SOUTH OF I80 BY SAT AM.
THE 00Z ECMWF SURPRISINGLY COMES IN STRONGER/SLOWER WITH DEEPENING
THE LLVL CYCLONE ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA LATER FRI NIGHT AND ROLLS IT
UP ACRS SOUTHERN LK MI BY 18Z SAT. WITH IT/S COLD PROFILES FOR
MAINLY ALL SNOW WITH THE PRECIP EVENT...IT/S SNOW ALGORITHM PRODUCES
4-7+ INCHES WITH IT/S DEF ZONE BY SAT MORNING ACRS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE DVN CWA...BIGGER TOTALS ACRS SOUTHERN WI. STRONG IN-WRAPPING
WINDS OF THE DEEPER ECMWF COULD ALSO MAKE FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING.
FOR NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND THE SYSTEM STILL OFF SHORE...WILL
ADVERTISE A BIT OF A MIX IN THE SOUTH WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
CWA-WIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SOME CONCERN HOW MUCH MOISTURE
DRAW FROM THE SOUTH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AS WELL TO PRODUCE SUCH
BIG SNOW TOTALS...BUT IF TENDS CONTINUE THE CWA WILL LOOK TO BE IN
LINE FOR AT LEAST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SNOW EVENT WITH A CHANCE
FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET IN OR NEAR THE FCST AREA. WITH ANY
KIND OF SNOW COVER...THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR SEEPING DOWN INTO THE
TROF BASE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WOULD MAKE FOR HIGHS SAT ONLY
IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH...TO MID-UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH. WIND
DROP OFF UNDER CLEAR SKIES SAT NIGHT WOULD MAKE FOR SEASONABLY COLD
LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS...AND SOME SNOW COVER OF AT LEAST 2-4
INCHES WOULD MAKE FOR SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH
BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS HAVING TROUBLE RECOVERING MUCH OUT OF THE
MID 30S ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS PERIOD TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH A TEMP
MODERATION INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD POOL SHIFTS EAST ACRS THE GRT
LKS AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS UP THE MS RVR VALLEY UNDER RE-
ESTABLISHING BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACRS THE CONUS. HIGH TEMPS TO
RECOVER BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE
UNDER SUCH A SYNOPTIC REGIME CHANGE. ..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY AT ALL THE TERMINALS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF 15 TO 25 KTS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5K AGL OR LOWER
END VFR TO HIGHER END MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
851 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 850 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2015
Updated the grids to adjust hourly POP timing and temps. POPs have
spread a little farther eastward quicker than previously forecast.
Wind gusts up to 40-45 mph have been observed ahead of the precip.
Gusts decline in the steady moderate rainfall, and then they will
pick up again during breaks of rainfall and on the back side where
rains are lighter. Thus, the Wind Advisory still looks good until
4pm at this point. May need to trim counties from west to east
behind the rains if wind gusts are underachieving. Expect high
temps ranging from the mid 60s to around 70 to be reached early this
afternoon with temps falling during the late afternoon/evening hours.
Issued at 515 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2015
Low-level winds reported by area VAD wind profiles as well as AMDAR
soundings are underachieving compared with what RAP fields suggested
the winds just above the surface should be. Still seeing a few gusts
into the 40-50 mph range this hour. So current wind advisory should
still work out. Have tweaked timing of highest pops to line up with
current radar trends and hourly reflectivity guidance. With each
tweak have tried to bump up winds and temperatures through the
morning just ahead (east) of the highest pops. Tweaks do not change
the zones, but have updated the point and click forecast for the web.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 230 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2015
....Windy Conditions Ahead of the Rains This Morning...
Seeing a steady increase in gradient winds early this morning, as a
strong low-level jet develops and pushes east across the region.
Gusts over our southwest forecast area are around 40 mph. Not too
far into the rain shield, winds are moderating over far western KY.
The main concern this morning is how windy it will get ahead of that
rain shield. Models continue to slow the eastward progress of the
line, now allowing a little more heating over our eastern zones.
That heating will lead to a higher mixing layer, which would allow
more of the stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface. Would
not be surprised to see some 50 mph gusts mix down by mid to late
morning in areas just ahead of the rain shield...mainly east of a
Frankfort to Campbellsville line. The current wind advisory covers
this well.
As for the rains, the line is making steady progress eastward and
see no reason not to go with 100 pops areawide for the daytime
period. Totals should end up around an inch with isolated higher
amounts. Have lingered some rain chances in our east after 00Z, but
expect the region to be rain free by midnight.
Thursday a secondary cold front will sweep through the region,
turning winds from southwesterly tonight to westerly by Thursday
afternoon. The sunshine during the day will allow temperatures to
get up to near normal levels.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2015
Focii this period will be a cold front sweeping through the region
Saturday and then how cold it gets behind that front. We`ll start
off with a chilly morning Friday, but readings in the 30s are near
normal. High pressure will be right over the region, on its way to a
position off the mid Atlantic coast Saturday. A cold front will
sweep in here on the back side of that high. Moisture will be meager
for this front to work with, but the trough aloft and behind this
front should be strong enough to force at least a chance for
measurable precip during the day.
Models have backed off quite a bit in how much precip falls behind
this front Saturday night. The question has been how much of the
cold air pours in here before the precip exits the region. Given
that the timing now is during the day, and the model agreement in
this scenario, decided to remove the chance for light snow we had in
for Saturday night.
Sunday still looks to be the coldest day of the period, as high
pressure moves right over the Ohio Valley. Blended models continue
to come in colder with each run, but decided to go even lower,
closer to the European statistical guidance for highs Sunday, in the
upper 30s for all but south central Kentucky. These readings would
be roughly 20 degrees below normal!
After that day we moderate as the high settles over the Appalachians
and the trough aloft turns more into a zonal pattern.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 545 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2015
A strong low pressure system will continue to track northeast across
the middle of the country. With the pressure gradient tightening up,
winds are becoming gusty at all TAF sites this morning. Expect that
all sites will see sustained winds this morning in the 15-20 knot
range with gusts up to 35 knots. Gusts have the potential to be
higher at LEX this morning as precipitation will begin later and the
atmosphere has a chance to mix. However, these higher gusts should
be brief. Have kept the LLWS in for the next few hours, and the LLB
is then expected to lessen somewhat.
Moderate to potentially heavy rain will continue to slowly move
east. It should affect BWG first around 14Z, followed by SDF around
15Z and LEX around 18Z. With the heavier pockets of rain
visibilities may briefly go down to IFR. This rain will move out
this afternoon into the evening hours. Ceilings should then improve
and winds gusts will lessen after sunset.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
650 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO EASTERN KY
THIS AFTERNOON. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS IN
TERMS OF POPS TO SLOW DOWN SLIGHTLY GIVEN SOME OF THE MESO
MODELS...BUT OVERALL TIMING LOOKS ON TRACK. DID SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS TO LINE UP BETTER TO LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
THIS MORNING STRONG CLOSED LOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 00Z ANALYSIS ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOWING A
537MB HEIGHT WHICH IS ACTUALLY MIN FOR THIS DAY BASED ON SOUNDING
CLIMO. THIS JUST SPEAKS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS POTENT
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUT AREA TODAY. THIS
LOW IS PROGGED PHASE WITH BROADER UPPER LOW ACROSS CANADA AND
OVERALL BROAD TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TO MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE RIDGING HOLD ON A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COOLER AIR...THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY LOCKED UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
NOW THE DEEPER SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NNE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WHILE ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT TRACK
EAST. THIS WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER TODAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LETS TALK
WIND FIRST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BECOME EVIDENT THIS
MORNING IN THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW AND STRONG
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH STRONG JET
ENERGY ALOFT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAIN VIEW WINDS AT 850MB
INDICATING 70KT PLUS CORE RUNNING ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING 30 TO 45 MPH GUST OF
BLACK MOUNTAIN THIS MORNING AND WHILE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE
HIGH...AT OR BELOW 1000 FT IN GENERAL...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
HEIGHT TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS. ALL THIS SAID THINK WE ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH OVERALL TIMING OF HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
NOW LETS DISCUSS THE PRECIP FOR THE EVENT WHICH WILL BE THE MOST
WE HAVE SEEN IN AT LEAST A MONTH NOW AND AT LEAST DOUBLE OUR
MONTHLY TOTAL SO FAR FOR NOV. THIS BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS IS MAKING IT INTO FAR WESTERN KY THIS MORNING BASED ON
WSR-88D MOSAIC. AREAS IN FAR WEST ARE SEEING AROUND A INCH OF
PRECIP BASED ON MESONETS SINCE MIDNIGHT CST. NOW LOOKING AT RADAR
AND COMPARING SOME OF THE MESO MODELS THIS MORNING...THE ARW-NMM
SEEMS TO HAVE THE OVERALL BEST HANDLE ON TIMING. THE HRRR IS A BIT
SLOW BASED ON RADAR. THAT SAID OVERALL BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP...NEARER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 300MB JET TO THE WEST...AND PWATS IN THE 1.4
OR HIGHER RANGE WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR BNA BASED ON SOUNDING
CLIMO. GIVEN THIS DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
OF PRECIP...BUT PERHAPS A BIT SLOWER IN PROGRESSING IN OVERALL.
GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR BLEND FOR QPF...WHICH SEEMS TO
MATCH UP WELL OVERALL WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THAT SAID
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY A INCH TO INCH AND A
QUARTER...BUT FAR SE COULD STILL SEE A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING WHICH
MAY HOLD THEM A BIT LOWER BUT NOT BY MUCH.
NOW FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FRONT SHOULD WORK OUT OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING AND GRADIENT/WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS WOULD SUGGEST POSSIBLE STRATUS HANGING
TONIGHT OR PERHAPS FOG. RIGHT NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON LOWER CLOUDS
SINCE IT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN ON EXACTLY WHAT WILL OCCUR...WITH
CLEARING SKIES ARE QUICK BEHIND THIS FRONT DOWN STREAM. WHILE
WINDS WEAKEN WE SHOULD STAY SOME WHAT MIXED...BUT HIGH WILL BEGIN
NUDGING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
A RATHER BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE RETURNING NORTH. RIDGING AT THAT POINT
CENTERED NEAR CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NORTH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. BY FRIDAY THE BROAD TROUGH SHOULD
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
FROM THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS...INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CANADIAN
UPPER LOW AND SHARPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRI
EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THAT POINT...SC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST HEIGHTS ACROSS EAST KY SHOULD
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ON FRI ACROSS EAST KY. HEIGHTS SHOULD AGAIN
FALL AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN REGION FRI NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT INTO SAT EVENING WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR -9C OR -10C ON SAT
NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN NEAR THAT LEVEL INTO SUNDAY.
HEIGHT RISES ARE THEN EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS INTO AT
LEAST EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD
EASTERN KY. HOWEVER...ONE MORE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE LIMITED
THAN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY SO NO MORE THAN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED. HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE AGAIN AT THE END OT
HE PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING. THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO
MODERATE WITH 85O MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE 0C AND MAKING A RUN
TOWARD 5C BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER MILD IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD
OF THE SATURDAY TO SATURDAY EVENING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY
AS WELL. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW ON SAT EVENING WHERE IF THE
MOISTURE LINGERED LONG ENOUGH AS THE COLUMN COOLS FOR A FEW FLAKES
TO MIX IN OR AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO OR A FEW FLURRIES...
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAIN LOW HOWEVER...AS THE 0Z MODEL RUN
GENERALLY HAS THE LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT VERY QUICK...ECMWF...OR
PRESENCE OF ICE IN THE LOW CLOUDS PERHAPS ONLY FROM SEEDER FEEDER
IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR RIGHT AS THE MOISTURE DEPARTS. IF FLAKES DO
IN FACT OCCUR...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR AND BE EVEN COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT. BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST EASTERN VALLEYS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT. PENDING CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...SOME TEENS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GFS
BASED COOP MOS GUIDANCE FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS SUPPORTS TEENS
FOR SUN NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES THERE WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR
MON NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...REACHING THE 40S MONDAY AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
THE START OF THE PERIOD HAS REMAINED VFR AND SHOULD UNTIL WE SEE
PRECIP MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BIGGER ISSUE
HAS BEEN THE GUSTY WINDS PARTICULARLY ALOFT...THE JKL VAD DOES
HAVE 40 KTS AT WHAT IS PROBABLY IS AROUND 2 KFT. THEREFORE
CONTINUE TO CARRY THE LLWS TILL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AREAWIDE. CERTAINLY EXPECTING AT LEAST 35KT
GUST AT MOST TAF SITES AT SOME POINT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
LOWER TAF SITES DOWN TO MVFR OR PERHAPS LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL WANE TONIGHT AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND SKIES CLEAR.
DEPENDING ON WINDS AND RAINFALL FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON THIS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-108-111-114-116.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ087-088-118-120.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ104-106-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117-119.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
645 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
THIS MORNING STRONG CLOSED LOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 00Z ANALYSIS ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOWING A
537MB HEIGHT WHICH IS ACTUALLY MIN FOR THIS DAY BASED ON SOUNDING
CLIMO. THIS JUST SPEAKS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS POTENT
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUT AREA TODAY. THIS
LOW IS PROGGED PHASE WITH BROADER UPPER LOW ACROSS CANADA AND
OVERALL BROAD TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TO MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE RIDGING HOLD ON A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COOLER AIR...THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY LOCKED UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
NOW THE DEEPER SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NNE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WHILE ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT TRACK
EAST. THIS WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER TODAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LETS TALK
WIND FIRST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BECOME EVIDENT THIS
MORNING IN THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW AND STRONG
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH STRONG JET
ENERGY ALOFT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAIN VIEW WINDS AT 850MB
INDICATING 70KT PLUS CORE RUNNING ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING 30 TO 45 MPH GUST OF
BLACK MOUNTAIN THIS MORNING AND WHILE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE
HIGH...AT OR BELOW 1000 FT IN GENERAL...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
HEIGHT TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS. ALL THIS SAID THINK WE ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH OVERALL TIMING OF HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
NOW LETS DISCUSS THE PRECIP FOR THE EVENT WHICH WILL BE THE MOST
WE HAVE SEEN IN AT LEAST A MONTH NOW AND AT LEAST DOUBLE OUR
MONTHLY TOTAL SO FAR FOR NOV. THIS BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS IS MAKING IT INTO FAR WESTERN KY THIS MORNING BASED ON
WSR-88D MOSAIC. AREAS IN FAR WEST ARE SEEING AROUND A INCH OF
PRECIP BASED ON MESONETS SINCE MIDNIGHT CST. NOW LOOKING AT RADAR
AND COMPARING SOME OF THE MESO MODELS THIS MORNING...THE ARW-NMM
SEEMS TO HAVE THE OVERALL BEST HANDLE ON TIMING. THE HRRR IS A BIT
SLOW BASED ON RADAR. THAT SAID OVERALL BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP...NEARER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 300MB JET TO THE WEST...AND PWATS IN THE 1.4
OR HIGHER RANGE WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR BNA BASED ON SOUNDING
CLIMO. GIVEN THIS DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
OF PRECIP...BUT PERHAPS A BIT SLOWER IN PROGRESSING IN OVERALL.
GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR BLEND FOR QPF...WHICH SEEMS TO
MATCH UP WELL OVERALL WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THAT SAID
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY A INCH TO INCH AND A
QUARTER...BUT FAR SE COULD STILL SEE A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING WHICH
MAY HOLD THEM A BIT LOWER BUT NOT BY MUCH.
NOW FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FRONT SHOULD WORK OUT OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING AND GRADIENT/WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS WOULD SUGGEST POSSIBLE STRATUS HANGING
TONIGHT OR PERHAPS FOG. RIGHT NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON LOWER CLOUDS
SINCE IT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN ON EXACTLY WHAT WILL OCCUR...WITH
CLEARING SKIES ARE QUICK BEHIND THIS FRONT DOWN STREAM. WHILE
WINDS WEAKEN WE SHOULD STAY SOME WHAT MIXED...BUT HIGH WILL BEGIN
NUDGING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
A RATHER BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE RETURNING NORTH. RIDGING AT THAT POINT
CENTERED NEAR CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NORTH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. BY FRIDAY THE BROAD TROUGH SHOULD
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
FROM THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS...INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CANADIAN
UPPER LOW AND SHARPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRI
EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THAT POINT...SC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST HEIGHTS ACROSS EAST KY SHOULD
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ON FRI ACROSS EAST KY. HEIGHTS SHOULD AGAIN
FALL AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN REGION FRI NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT INTO SAT EVENING WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR -9C OR -10C ON SAT
NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN NEAR THAT LEVEL INTO SUNDAY.
HEIGHT RISES ARE THEN EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS INTO AT
LEAST EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD
EASTERN KY. HOWEVER...ONE MORE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE LIMITED
THAN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY SO NO MORE THAN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED. HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE AGAIN AT THE END OT
HE PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING. THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO
MODERATE WITH 85O MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE 0C AND MAKING A RUN
TOWARD 5C BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER MILD IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD
OF THE SATURDAY TO SATURDAY EVENING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY
AS WELL. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW ON SAT EVENING WHERE IF THE
MOISTURE LINGERED LONG ENOUGH AS THE COLUMN COOLS FOR A FEW FLAKES
TO MIX IN OR AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO OR A FEW FLURRIES...
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAIN LOW HOWEVER...AS THE 0Z MODEL RUN
GENERALLY HAS THE LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT VERY QUICK...ECMWF...OR
PRESENCE OF ICE IN THE LOW CLOUDS PERHAPS ONLY FROM SEEDER FEEDER
IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR RIGHT AS THE MOISTURE DEPARTS. IF FLAKES DO
IN FACT OCCUR...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR AND BE EVEN COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT. BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST EASTERN VALLEYS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT. PENDING CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...SOME TEENS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GFS
BASED COOP MOS GUIDANCE FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS SUPPORTS TEENS
FOR SUN NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES THERE WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR
MON NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...REACHING THE 40S MONDAY AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
THE START OF THE PERIOD HAS REMAINED VFR AND SHOULD UNTIL WE SEE
PRECIP MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BIGGER ISSUE
HAS BEEN THE GUSTY WINDS PARTICULARLY ALOFT...THE JKL VAD DOES
HAVE 40 KTS AT WHAT IS PROBABLY IS AROUND 2 KFT. THEREFORE
CONTINUE TO CARRY THE LLWS TILL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AREAWIDE. CERTAINLY EXPECTING AT LEAST 35KT
GUST AT MOST TAF SITES AT SOME POINT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
LOWER TAF SITES DOWN TO MVFR OR PERHAPS LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL WANE TONIGHT AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND SKIES CLEAR.
DEPENDING ON WINDS AND RAINFALL FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON THIS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-108-111-114-116.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ087-088-118-120.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ104-106-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117-119.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
845 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS LATER TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN STORE FOR WEEKS END.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO
HELP SUSTAIN WIND GUSTS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS AND VALLEYS NEARBY...WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET
ENHANCES IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO
SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HI-RES AND RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS
ALSO INDICATES STRONGER...BUT SHALLOW MIXING AS TEMPERATURES RISE
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
RIDGE ZONES AND VALLEYS WITHIN.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE LIGHT
QPF ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWIFTLY CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO END THE PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEAR SEANONAL LEVELS.
AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO HELP
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW AND CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS DEPICTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AS TIMING OF
THE THE FRONT DIFFERS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLDER WEEKEND WEATHER UNDER A CROSSING UPR TROUGH IS FORECAST...BUT
ONCE AGAIN...MODERATION AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WRN CONUS LOW. THE
ONLY CAVEAT LOOKS TO BE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE ENCROACHMENT AS PER
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH MAY DELAY THE WARM UP AND SPAWN SOME
SHOWERS...CHCS FOR WHICH WERE LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY AS PER A
GUIDANCE BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH EXCEPTION FOR FKL AND DUJ
WHERE MVFR ST/STRATOCU WL CONT TO STREAM ACRS CNTRL PA. LOW LEVEL
JET ENCROACHMENT INCRSD WIND SHEAR EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT MIXING
HAS ALLEVIATED THAT CONCERN AT THE COST OF GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT
THIS MRNG. SFC GUSTS BTN 25 AND 30 KT CAN BE ANTICIPATED AS THAT
PROCESS IMPROVES THIS AFTN.
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS FORECAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PLOUGHS ACRS THE UPR OHIO REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHWRS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
554 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS LATER TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN STORE FOR WEEKS END.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PREDAWN UPDATE INCLUDED MINOR CHANGES TO DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO
HELP SUSTAIN WIND GUSTS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS AND VALLEYS NEARBY...WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET
ENHANCES IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO
SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HI-RES AND RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS
ALSO INDICATES STRONGER...BUT SHALLOW MIXING AS TEMPERATURES RISE
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
RIDGE ZONES AND VALLEYS WITHIN.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE LIGHT
QPF ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWIFTLY CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO END THE PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEAR SEANONAL LEVELS.
AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO HELP
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW AND CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS DEPICTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AS TIMING OF
THE THE FRONT DIFFERS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLDER WEEKEND WEATHER UNDER A CROSSING UPR TROUGH IS FORECAST...BUT
ONCE AGAIN...MODERATION AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WRN CONUS LOW. THE
ONLY CAVEAT LOOKS TO BE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE ENCROACHMENT AS PER
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH MAY DELAY THE WARM UP AND SPAWN SOME
SHOWERS...CHCS FOR WHICH WERE LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY AS PER A
GUIDANCE BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH EXCEPTION FOR FKL AND DUJ
WHERE MVFR ST/STRATOCU WL CONT TO STREAM ACRS CNTRL PA. LOW LEVEL
JET ENCROACHMENT INCRSD WIND SHEAR EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT MIXING
HAS ALLEVIATED THAT CONCERN AT THE COST OF GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT
THIS MRNG. SFC GUSTS BTN 25 AND 30 KT CAN BE ANTICIPATED AS THAT
PROCESS IMPROVES THIS AFTN.
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS FORECAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PLOUGHS ACRS THE UPR OHIO REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHWRS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
15/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
506 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS LATER TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN STORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PREDAWN UPDATE INCLUDS MINOR CHANGES TO DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNLSOPING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
HELP SUSTAIN WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS AND VALLEYS
NEARBY...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE
THE LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HI-RES
AND RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATES STRONGER SHALLOW MIXING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THE RIDGE ZONES AND VALLEYS WITHIN.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE LIGHT
QPF ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWIFTLY CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO END THE PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEAR SEANONAL LEVELS.
AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO HELP
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW AND CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS DEPICTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AS TIMING OF
THE THE FRONT DIFFERS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLDER WEEKEND WEATHER UNDER A CROSSING UPR TROUGH IS FORECAST...BUT
ONCE AGAIN...MODERATION AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WRN CONUS LOW. THE
ONLY CAVEAT LOOKS TO BE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE ENCROACHMENT AS PER
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH MAY DELAY THE WARM UP AND SPAWN SOME
SHOWERS...CHCS FOR WHICH WERE LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY AS PER A
GUIDANCE BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH EXCEPTION FOR DUJ
WHERE MVFR STRATOCU WL CONT TO STREAM ACRS CNTRL PA. LOW LEVEL
JET ENCROACHMENT HAS INCRSD WIND SHEAR OVR THE REGION...INCLUSION
OF WHICH WAS CONTD UNTIL MIXING IMPROVES LATER THIS MRNG. SFC
GUSTS BTN 25 AND 30 KT CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH THAT PROCESS.
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS FORECAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PLOUGHS ACRS THE UPR OHIO REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHWRS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
24/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
725 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE. WEB CAM NEAR YORK SHOWING A BIT OF SNOW
HAD ACCUMULATED THERE. BAND OF HIGHEST RADAR ECHOES FROM AROUND
COLUMBUS TO FAIRBURY MAY HAVE SNOW WITH VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT TRACKS EAST...THEN SHOULD GO BACK TO A
MIX. ALSO MADE A FEW MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS FOR PCPN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
...POTENTIAL FOR FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW OF THE SEASON FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM TODAY AS LIFTS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA...RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND POTENTIAL
FOR WIND HEADLINES...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF SD/NE/IA/WI AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.
AT 0930Z...THE REGIONAL WSR-88D MOSAIC RADAR SHOWED A SPREAD OUT
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WITH RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE ELONGATED UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM IOWA...TOWARD MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA
AND BACK TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO RE-
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE H5 LOW CENTER OVER NORTHEAST
KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVER MINNESOTA AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND SNOW TOWARD ONEILL AND
KEARNEY.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA
THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A 110KT UPR LEVEL JET.
IMPRESSIVE WINDS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT WITH MANY STATIONS SUSTAINED
AT 40KTS GUSTING TO OVER 50KTS.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
H5 LOW WITH 200M HEIGHT FALLS...OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS (A LITTLE
SOUTHEAST OF WHERE IT WAS FORECAST TO BE YESTERDAY)...LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO IOWA BY 18Z AND THE U.P. BY 00Z. THE LARGE AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WITH LOCAL MINIMUMS IN KANSAS AND WESTERN
IOWA...WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST TOWARD NEBRASKA WITH
WARMING H85 TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF IT.
COMPLEX PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH ONE SYSTEM EXITING THE
AREA...WHILE THE NEXT RACES IN BEHIND IT OVER THE NEXT 12HRS. HAVE
THREE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...THE AREA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
FRONT...THE DEFORMATION BAND...AND THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH THE
DEFORMATION BAND AND THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AS THE
DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR INCREASES OR AREAS WHERE THERE IS LOCAL
COOLING. H85 TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM UP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WHILE THE DEFORMATION BAND SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA...THE COVERAGE DECREASES...MEANWHILE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
VERY STRONG WINDS WERE NOTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH
50KT H85 WINDS. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WIND RELATED HEADLINES WITH
THIS. THE WINDS TRY TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND A A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
THE FIRST AREA OF WIDESPREAD SNOW MAY OCCUR FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DEVELOP A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY. INCREASING OMEGA...FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES SHOULD IN SOME 1 TO 4 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW. WITH LIFT IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BEST FORCING SETS
UP...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
WITH THE EXPECTED
SNOW...DID LOWER LOWS SATURDAY MORNING AND HIGHS SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. STILL COLDER FOR SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
CONDITIONS AT 1125Z WERE MAINLY IN THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND THE
AREA. EXPECT SOME LIGHT PCPN THIS MORNING THEN A BREAK IS LIKELY
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTN. NOT SURE IF
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PCPN AND LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTN AT THE TAF SITES AS THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOWED...SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
...POTENTIAL FOR FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW OF THE SEASON FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM TODAY AS LIFTS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA...RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND POTENTIAL
FOR WIND HEADLINES...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF SD/NE/IA/WI AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.
AT 0930Z...THE REGIONAL WSR-88D MOSAIC RADAR SHOWED A SPREAD OUT
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WITH RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE ELONGATED UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM IOWA...TOWARD MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA
AND BACK TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO RE-
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE H5 LOW CENTER OVER NORTHEAST
KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVER MINNESOTA AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND SNOW TOWARD ONEILL AND
KEARNEY.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA
THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A 110KT UPR LEVEL JET.
IMPRESSIVE WINDS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT WITH MANY STATIONS SUSTAINED
AT 40KTS GUSTING TO OVER 50KTS.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
H5 LOW WITH 200M HEIGHT FALLS...OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS (A LITTLE
SOUTHEAST OF WHERE IT WAS FORECAST TO BE YESTERDAY)...LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO IOWA BY 18Z AND THE U.P. BY 00Z. THE LARGE AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WITH LOCAL MINIMUMS IN KANSAS AND WESTERN
IOWA...WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST TOWARD NEBRASKA WITH
WARMING H85 TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF IT.
COMPLEX PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH ONE SYSTEM EXITING THE
AREA...WHILE THE NEXT RACES IN BEHIND IT OVER THE NEXT 12HRS. HAVE
THREE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...THE AREA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
FRONT...THE DEFORMATION BAND...AND THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH THE
DEFORMATION BAND AND THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AS THE
DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR INCREASES OR AREAS WHERE THERE IS LOCAL
COOLING. H85 TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM UP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WHILE THE DEFORMATION BAND SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA...THE COVERAGE DECREASES...MEANWHILE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
VERY STRONG WINDS WERE NOTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH
50KT H85 WINDS. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WIND RELATED HEADLINES WITH
THIS. THE WINDS TRY TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND A A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
THE FIRST AREA OF WIDESPREAD SNOW MAY OCCUR FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DEVELOP A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY. INCREASING OMEGA...FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES SHOULD IN SOME 1 TO 4 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW. WITH LIFT IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BEST FORCING SETS
UP...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
WITH THE EXPECTED
SNOW...DID LOWER LOWS SATURDAY MORNING AND HIGHS SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. STILL COLDER FOR SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
CONDITIONS AT 1125Z WERE MAINLY IN THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND THE
AREA. EXPECT SOME LIGHT PCPN THIS MORNING THEN A BREAK IS LIKELY
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTN. NOT SURE IF
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PCPN AND LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTN AT THE TAF SITES AS THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOWED...SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
933 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT...MAINLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 933 AM EST WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
THERE ISN`T MUCH GOING ON THIS MORNING WEATHER WISE. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES HAVE COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TEMPS
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY A BIT MORE THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO I
TWEAKS UP TEMPS IN THE VALLEY A BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS STILL YET TO REACH PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM SO I SLOWED DOWN HOW QUICKLY WE WARM UP THERE.
ADDITIONALLY THERE`S A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT SO I UPDATED THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMIT TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SLK AND WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN IS 11
DEGREES. ULTIMATELY THIS HAD LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER
PICTURE AND WAS MORE COSMETIC THAN PHYSICAL. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 634 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC-850MB RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BRINGING A CHILLY
MORNING TO VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT ALREADY SEEING STRONG WARMING
ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +6C AT BTV AND +9C ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY NY PER 10Z RUC ANALYSIS. EVIDENCE OF THIS IN THE
SFC OBSERVATIONS WITH 11Z READINGS OF 12F AT KSLK...BUT 37F ATOP
WHITEFACE MTN WITH 35KT SWLY WINDS. ALSO - AFTER A LOW OF 25F
AROUND MIDNIGHT - BTV HAS CLIMBED TO 37F AT 11Z AIDED BY VALLEY
CHANNELED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-12KTS. 2-M TEMPS WILL CLIMB
RELATIVELY QUICKLY AREAWIDE AFTER SUNRISE AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
INCREASES ON WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND AS RADIATIONAL
INVERSIONS BREAK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS REACH 10-20 MPH THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 25-30
MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELED FLOW. WILL
SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-UPR CLOUDS THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW MOVING 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. DESPITE A BIT OF FILTERED SUN...W/ 925MB TEMPS
MODERATING TO AROUND +6C THIS AFTN AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING
SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACHING 5 TO 8 DEG WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. WARMEST
READINGS LIKELY IN WRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY; LOCALLY IN THE MID
50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED SLY
GRADIENT FLOW KEEPING SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 925MB WINDS REACH 55KTS BY 08Z ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SO WILL BE QUITE WINDY ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS.
MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...BUT RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS BELOW THE
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD KEEP GUSTS FROM REACHING MUCH HIGHER.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S WEST OF THE GREEN
MTNS...AND LOCALLY UPR 30S EAST OF THE GREENS. WILL SEE A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH POSSIBLE STRATUS LAYER
SPREADING NWD INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS WELL.
IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PRE-DAWN
SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THIS PERIOD WILL BE A
TRANSITION FROM STRONG RIDGE TO DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT AND DIGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. INITIAL 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND
PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0". EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z...AND INTO EASTERN VT BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/EASTERN VT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MIXING OF LOW LEVEL JET TO THE
SURFACE ON THURSDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF WITNESS A FEW GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH ACROSS THE ALIGNED SOUTH TO NORTH VALLEYS AND
OVER THE EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE STRONG 850MB TO 925MB
WIND FIELD EXPECT SOME TERRAIN DRIVEN EFFECTS TO THE QPF ACROSS OUR
REGION. HIGHEST QPF VALUES OF AN INCH WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS WITH
A 0.25 TO 0.75 IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE...CHAMPLAIN..AND PARTS OF THE
CT RIVER VALLEYS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS PEAK BETWEEN 6-8C AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY...BUT CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL LIMIT MIXING. THINKING
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S MTNS TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. IF SOME SUN DEVELOPS AHEAD OF RAIN ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE LOWER 60S WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY OUR FORECAST AREA IS UNDER MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS SHORT WAVE RACES TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE. DEEP DRY SLOT
WITH PWS FALLING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR CWA BY
18Z...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. ECMWF
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WHICH COULD END AS A FEW WET SNOW
FLAKES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ON FRIDAY
MORNING BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EST WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. IF MORE CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT THAN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES COULD BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEXT POTENT SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IMPACT OUR CWA
ON SUNDAY. AS WE THOUGHT YESTERDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRES TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION IS TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND
REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE AND RESULT IN
MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
EXTREMELY STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM AND TIMING OF SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLD AIR DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THINKING
A FEW HEAVIER CONVECTION RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BURST OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. BY 00Z MONDAY PROGGED 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -8C WITH
925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -2C AND -4C...WHICH WILL RESULT SNOW LEVELS NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOOR. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH
OF OUR CWA AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LEFTOVER
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY 06Z MONDAY WITH MOISTURE
QUICKLY DISSIPATING. EARLY INDICATIONS WOULD BE FOR SEVERAL INCHES
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 2000 FEET WITH 4 OR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SUMMIT BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 FEET. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
30S MOUNTAIN TOWNS TO LOWER 40S WARMER VALLEYS. EXPECT MID WINTER
CONDITIONS ON MOUNTAIN SUMMITS ON SUNDAY WITH BLUSTERY WINDS AND
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH 00Z THU...THEN POTENTIAL MVFR
STRATUS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES EARLY TO SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FROM 20-25KFT AGL, WHICH WILL TEND TO THICKEN AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 6 KNOTS AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH 12-13Z WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTN. ALREADY 11KTS AT BTV WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING AT 11Z. LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS EXPECTED AT BTV
TONIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AT KMSS/KSLK DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HRS THURSDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT BRINGS
PROSPECTS FOR LLWS...BEGINNING AT KSLK AT 19/00Z CENTERED AROUND
2KFT...AND AT MPV BY 06Z.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS DURING THURSDAY AM AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN
DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. GUSTS 25-40 KNOTS POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...HIGHEST AT KBTV WITH CHANNELED FLOW IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
TRENDING BACK TO VFR FOR FRI/SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO BE 15-25 KNOTS
TO TOADY AND INCREASING TOMORROW TO 20-30 KNOTS BEFORE WEAKENING
TOMORROW EVENING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 650 PM EST MONDAY...FOR YOUR INFORMATION...THE AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE MORRISVILLE-STOWE STATE
AIRPORT (KMVL) IN MORRISVILLE VERMONT WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE FOR A
FEW DAYS THIS WEEK...AS IT IS BEING PHYSICALLY RELOCATED TO
ANOTHER LOCATION ON THE AIRPORT GROUNDS. THUS...ONLY THE ALTIMETER
SETTING WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE. THERE WILL BE NO
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...SURFACE WIND...PRESENT WEATHER AND
CEILING BEING REPORTED UNTIL AFTER THE ASOS HAS BEEN RELOCATED.
FOR AVIATION INTERESTS...THE FAA ALREADY HAS A NOTAM OUT ABOUT THE
ASOS OUTAGE AT KMVL.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
836 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT...MAINLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 634 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BRINGING A CHILLY MORNING TO VALLEY
LOCATIONS...BUT ALREADY SEEING STRONG WARMING ALOFT WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND +6C AT BTV AND +9C ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY PER
10Z RUC ANALYSIS. EVIDENCE OF THIS IN THE SFC OBSERVATIONS WITH
11Z READINGS OF 12F AT KSLK...BUT 37F ATOP WHITEFACE MTN WITH 35KT
SWLY WINDS. ALSO - AFTER A LOW OF 25F AROUND MIDNIGHT - BTV HAS
CLIMBED TO 37F AT 11Z AIDED BY VALLEY CHANNELED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
10-12KTS. 2-M TEMPS WILL CLIMB RELATIVELY QUICKLY AREAWIDE AFTER
SUNRISE AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ON WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE AND AS RADIATIONAL INVERSIONS BREAK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS REACH 10-20 MPH THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 25-30
MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELED FLOW. WILL
SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-UPR CLOUDS THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW MOVING 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. DESPITE A BIT OF FILTERED SUN...W/ 925MB TEMPS
MODERATING TO AROUND +6C THIS AFTN AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING
SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACHING 5 TO 8 DEG WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. WARMEST
READINGS LIKELY IN WRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY; LOCALLY IN THE MID
50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED SLY
GRADIENT FLOW KEEPING SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 925MB WINDS REACH 55KTS BY 08Z ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SO WILL BE QUITE WINDY ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS.
MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...BUT RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS BELOW THE
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD KEEP GUSTS FROM REACHING MUCH HIGHER.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S WEST OF THE GREEN
MTNS...AND LOCALLY UPR 30S EAST OF THE GREENS. WILL SEE A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH POSSIBLE STRATUS LAYER
SPREADING NWD INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS WELL.
IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PRE-DAWN
SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THIS PERIOD WILL BE A
TRANSITION FROM STRONG RIDGE TO DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT AND DIGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. INITIAL 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND
PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0". EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z...AND INTO EASTERN VT BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/EASTERN VT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MIXING OF LOW LEVEL JET TO THE
SURFACE ON THURSDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF WITNESS A FEW GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH ACROSS THE ALIGNED SOUTH TO NORTH VALLEYS AND
OVER THE EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE STRONG 850MB TO 925MB
WIND FIELD EXPECT SOME TERRAIN DRIVEN EFFECTS TO THE QPF ACROSS OUR
REGION. HIGHEST QPF VALUES OF AN INCH WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS WITH
A 0.25 TO 0.75 IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE...CHAMPLAIN..AND PARTS OF THE
CT RIVER VALLEYS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS PEAK BETWEEN 6-8C AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY...BUT CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL LIMIT MIXING. THINKING
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S MTNS TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. IF SOME SUN DEVELOPS AHEAD OF RAIN ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE LOWER 60S WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY OUR FORECAST AREA IS UNDER MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS SHORT WAVE RACES TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE. DEEP DRY SLOT
WITH PWS FALLING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR CWA BY
18Z...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. ECMWF
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WHICH COULD END AS A FEW WET SNOW
FLAKES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ON FRIDAY
MORNING BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EST WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. IF MORE CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT THAN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES COULD BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEXT POTENT SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IMPACT OUR CWA
ON SUNDAY. AS WE THOUGHT YESTERDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRES TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION IS TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND
REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE AND RESULT IN
MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
EXTREMELY STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM AND TIMING OF SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLD AIR DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THINKING
A FEW HEAVIER CONVECTION RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BURST OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. BY 00Z MONDAY PROGGED 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -8C WITH
925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -2C AND -4C...WHICH WILL RESULT SNOW LEVELS NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOOR. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH
OF OUR CWA AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LEFTOVER
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY 06Z MONDAY WITH MOISTURE
QUICKLY DISSIPATING. EARLY INDICATIONS WOULD BE FOR SEVERAL INCHES
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 2000 FEET WITH 4 OR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SUMMIT BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 FEET. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
30S MOUNTAIN TOWNS TO LOWER 40S WARMER VALLEYS. EXPECT MID WINTER
CONDITIONS ON MOUNTAIN SUMMITS ON SUNDAY WITH BLUSTERY WINDS AND
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH 00Z THU...THEN POTENTIAL MVFR
STRATUS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES EARLY TO SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FROM 20-25KFT AGL, WHICH WILL TEND TO THICKEN AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 6 KNOTS AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH 12-13Z WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTN. ALREADY 11KTS AT BTV WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING AT 11Z. LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS EXPECTED AT BTV
TONIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AT KMSS/KSLK DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HRS THURSDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT BRINGS
PROSPECTS FOR LLWS...BEGINNING AT KSLK AT 19/00Z CENTERED AROUND
2KFT...AND AT MPV BY 06Z.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS DURING THURSDAY AM AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN
DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. GUSTS 25-40 KNOTS POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...HIGHEST AT KBTV WITH CHANNELED FLOW IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
TRENDING BACK TO VFR FOR FRI/SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO BE 15-25 KNOTS
TO TOADY AND INCREASING TOMORROW TO 20-30 KNOTS BEFORE WEAKENING
TOMORROW EVENING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 650 PM EST MONDAY...FOR YOUR INFORMATION...THE AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE MORRISVILLE-STOWE STATE
AIRPORT (KMVL) IN MORRISVILLE VERMONT WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE FOR A
FEW DAYS THIS WEEK...AS IT IS BEING PHYSICALLY RELOCATED TO
ANOTHER LOCATION ON THE AIRPORT GROUNDS. THUS...ONLY THE ALTIMETER
SETTING WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE. THERE WILL BE NO
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...SURFACE WIND...PRESENT WEATHER AND
CEILING BEING REPORTED UNTIL AFTER THE ASOS HAS BEEN RELOCATED.
FOR AVIATION INTERESTS...THE FAA ALREADY HAS A NOTAM OUT ABOUT THE
ASOS OUTAGE AT KMVL.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT...MAINLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 634 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BRINGING A CHILLY MORNING TO VALLEY
LOCATIONS...BUT ALREADY SEEING STRONG WARMING ALOFT WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND +6C AT BTV AND +9C ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY PER
10Z RUC ANALYSIS. EVIDENCE OF THIS IN THE SFC OBSERVATIONS WITH
11Z READINGS OF 12F AT KSLK...BUT 37F ATOP WHITEFACE MTN WITH 35KT
SWLY WINDS. ALSO - AFTER A LOW OF 25F AROUND MIDNIGHT - BTV HAS
CLIMBED TO 37F AT 11Z AIDED BY VALLEY CHANNELED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
10-12KTS. 2-M TEMPS WILL CLIMB RELATIVELY QUICKLY AREAWIDE AFTER
SUNRISE AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ON WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE AND AS RADIATIONAL INVERSIONS BREAK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS REACH 10-20 MPH THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 25-30
MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELED FLOW. WILL
SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-UPR CLOUDS THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW MOVING 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. DESPITE A BIT OF FILTERED SUN...W/ 925MB TEMPS
MODERATING TO AROUND +6C THIS AFTN AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING
SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACHING 5 TO 8 DEG WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. WARMEST
READINGS LIKELY IN WRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY; LOCALLY IN THE MID
50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED SLY
GRADIENT FLOW KEEPING SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 925MB WINDS REACH 55KTS BY 08Z ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SO WILL BE QUITE WINDY ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS.
MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...BUT RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS BELOW THE
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD KEEP GUSTS FROM REACHING MUCH HIGHER.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S WEST OF THE GREEN
MTNS...AND LOCALLY UPR 30S EAST OF THE GREENS. WILL SEE A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH POSSIBLE STRATUS LAYER
SPREADING NWD INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS WELL.
IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PRE-DAWN
SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THIS PERIOD WILL BE A
TRANSITION FROM STRONG RIDGE TO DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT AND DIGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. INITIAL 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND
PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0". EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z...AND INTO EASTERN VT BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/EASTERN VT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MIXING OF LOW LEVEL JET TO THE
SURFACE ON THURSDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF WITNESS A FEW GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH ACROSS THE ALIGNED SOUTH TO NORTH VALLEYS AND
OVER THE EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE STRONG 850MB TO 925MB
WIND FIELD EXPECT SOME TERRAIN DRIVEN EFFECTS TO THE QPF ACROSS OUR
REGION. HIGHEST QPF VALUES OF AN INCH WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS WITH
A 0.25 TO 0.75 IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE...CHAMPLAIN..AND PARTS OF THE
CT RIVER VALLEYS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS PEAK BETWEEN 6-8C AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY...BUT CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL LIMIT MIXING. THINKING
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S MTNS TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. IF SOME SUN DEVELOPS AHEAD OF RAIN ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE LOWER 60S WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY OUR FORECAST AREA IS UNDER MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS SHORT WAVE RACES TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE. DEEP DRY SLOT
WITH PWS FALLING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR CWA BY
18Z...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. ECMWF
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WHICH COULD END AS A FEW WET SNOW
FLAKES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ON FRIDAY
MORNING BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EST WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. IF MORE CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT THAN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES COULD BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEXT POTENT SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IMPACT OUR CWA
ON SUNDAY. AS WE THOUGHT YESTERDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRES TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION IS TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND
REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE AND RESULT IN
MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
EXTREMELY STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM AND TIMING OF SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLD AIR DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THINKING
A FEW HEAVIER CONVECTION RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BURST OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. BY 00Z MONDAY PROGGED 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -8C WITH
925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -2C AND -4C...WHICH WILL RESULT SNOW LEVELS NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOOR. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH
OF OUR CWA AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LEFTOVER
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY 06Z MONDAY WITH MOISTURE
QUICKLY DISSIPATING. EARLY INDICATIONS WOULD BE FOR SEVERAL INCHES
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 2000 FEET WITH 4 OR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SUMMIT BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 FEET. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
30S MOUNTAIN TOWNS TO LOWER 40S WARMER VALLEYS. EXPECT MID WINTER
CONDITIONS ON MOUNTAIN SUMMITS ON SUNDAY WITH BLUSTERY WINDS AND
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH 00Z THU...THEN POTENTIAL MVFR
STRATUS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES EARLY TO SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FROM 20-25KFT AGL, WHICH WILL TEND TO THICKEN AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 6 KNOTS AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH 12-13Z WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTN. ALREADY 11KTS AT BTV WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING AT 11Z. LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS EXPECTED AT BTV
TONIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AT KMSS/KSLK DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HRS THURSDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT BRINGS
PROSPECTS FOR LLWS...BEGINNING AT KSLK AT 19/00Z CENTERED AROUND
2KFT...AND AT MPV BY 06Z.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS DURING THURSDAY AM AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN
DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. GUSTS 25-40 KNOTS POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...HIGHEST AT KBTV WITH CHANNELED FLOW IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
TRENDING BACK TO VFR FOR FRI/SAT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 650 PM EST MONDAY...FOR YOUR INFORMATION...THE AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE MORRISVILLE-STOWE STATE
AIRPORT (KMVL) IN MORRISVILLE VERMONT WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE FOR A
FEW DAYS THIS WEEK...AS IT IS BEING PHYSICALLY RELOCATED TO
ANOTHER LOCATION ON THE AIRPORT GROUNDS. THUS...ONLY THE ALTIMETER
SETTING WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE. THERE WILL BE NO
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...SURFACE WIND...PRESENT WEATHER AND
CEILING BEING REPORTED UNTIL AFTER THE ASOS HAS BEEN RELOCATED.
FOR AVIATION INTERESTS...THE FAA ALREADY HAS A NOTAM OUT ABOUT THE
ASOS OUTAGE AT KMVL.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
954 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
RAIN BAND SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN MN LINING UP WELL WITH CURRENT
POPS. WEAKENING BAND PUSHING INTO THE FAR NW FA ASSOCIATED WITH
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND NOT LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SUBFREEZING HOWEVER GUIDANCE WARMS ROAD SURFACES
ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SPIT
HOWEVER NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS. DID LOWER POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS THROUGH NOON. NO OTHER CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
BAND OF PRECIP IN CNTRL ND ATTM MINOT TO BISMARCK MOVING EAST. CAM
MODELS INSIST IT WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES EAST...BUT UNSURE SO
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP AS IT MOVES EAST. MORE TRACE EVENT STUFF.
ISSUE IS TEMPS AS CLOUDS WILL COME IN WITH THE PRECIP AND WARM UP
ENOUGH TO BE MOSTLY LIQUID BUT ISSUE IS NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS PRECIP
ARRIVES INTO FAR NW FCST AREA AND MAY DO SO IN TIME BEFORE TEMPS
RISE. WILL MENTION FZRA/RA IN FAR NW FCST AREA FOR THIS AT 15Z
THEN JUST -RA 16Z ONWARD. WILL NEED TO WATCH. O/W NO CHANGES.
VARIOUS 06Z MODEL DATA SUPPORTS PREV WIND IDEAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT OVERALL...BUT DETAILS ON WIND AND
SNOW ARE TOUGH. FIRST OFF...AREA OF RAIN ASSOC WITH MAIN UPPER LOW
IN KANSAS LIFTING NORTHEAST IS A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER
PROGGED. THUS DID PUSH THE HIGH POPS A BIT EAST AND EAST OF THE
RRV. CLOUD-CLEAR LINE FROM LAST EVENING HOLDING AS EXPECTED
HALLOCK-GRAND FORKS-FORMAN ND. SOME FOG NOTICED ESP EAST OF THE
RRV ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE LOW CLOUDS WITH SEVERAL SITES FROM
ROSEAU TO FOSSTON TO DTL DOWN 1/2 MILE OR LESS. ADDED AREAS OF FOG
THIS AREA THRU THE MORNING.
FOR THE DAY...THE RAIN WILL SPREAD UP THRU THE ERN FCST
AREA...WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST. CLEAR AREA OVER WRN
FCST AREA WHERE TEMPS DROPPED INTO THE LOW 20S WILL WARM UP AS
THERE IS A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND AHD OF THE FRONT AND COOLER
AIR. HRRR INDICATES A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ENTERING DVL REGION EARLY AFTN AND INTO RRV LATE AFTN. RE-WORKED
SOME POPS FOR THIS. MORE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THIS. RADAR OUT WEST
SHOWS PCPN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED AND THUS HAVE ONLY LOW POPS
FOR ANY AFTN PRECIP IN ERN ND.
ISSUE IS WIND. IT DOES APPEAR THAT JUST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW
HOURS THERE IS ENOUGH PRESSURE RISE, 850 MB COLD ADVECTION AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE TO BRING SOME OF THE 850 MB WINDS
(55-60 KT) TO THE SFC IN CNTRL ND AND WRN FCST AREA VERY LATE
AFTN-EVE. AS THESE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT FEEL FULL MIXING WILL NOT BE REALIZED AS MAIN CORE
OF PRESSURE RISES CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. REALLY TOUGH TO GET
WARNING CRITERIA WINDS AT NIGHT INTO THE RRV...AND FELT CHANCES
FOR THAT ARE QUITE LOW. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM A MUCH BETTER
BET. FELT TOO THAT PERIOD OF WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN FAR WRN
FCST AREA IS LIMITED AS WELL TO LATE AFTN-EVE AND THEN MORE
ADVISORY LEVELS AS FULL MIXING NOT REALIZED AS MUCH AS GFS
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISE COUPLET THAN WHAT I SEE FOR A
LONGER PD OF WARNING CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS. THIS IDEA GENERALLY
FOLLOWS LAV MOS GUIDANCE WELL WITH WIND GUSTS 45-49 KTS IN DVL
00Z-04Z PERIOD....THEN A BIT LOWER MORE LIKE 40-45 KT AFTER THAT.
INTO THE RRV AND GFK/FAR LAV MOS WINDS MORE SO 35-40 KT WIND
GUSTS. THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY.
DID NOT EXTEND ADVISORY FARTHER EAST INTO ERN HALF OF FCST
YET BASED ON COORDINATION. BUT SOME COUNTIES FROM THIEF RIVER TO
FERGUS FALLS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY AS THAT IS WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS THERE WILL OCCUR.
AS FOR WRAPAROUND PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW. PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING ABOUT A 12 HR PD OF SNOW 06Z-18Z THU IN NORTHEASTERN FCST
AREA. WPC SNOWFALL FCST SHOWS FAR NORTHEAST IN 3-4 INCH AREA ISOLD
5 MAYBE FLAG ISLAND/ANGLE INLET AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. MOST OF
THIS IS NOT TIL WELL PAST 00Z AND MORE SO 06Z AND AFTER AND THUS
ENOUGH TIME TO MONITOR FURTHER FOR ANY WINTER WX ADVISORY
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA OTHERWISE SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA AND SPREAD EAST AS UPPER
LOW DEPARTS SLOWLY THRU NRN ONTARIO THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THE TROF SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THICKNESS
VALUES INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
RETURNS...AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS POINT TOWARD A WARMING TREND FOR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LITTLE PCPN IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
MESSY TAFS AS WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS HCO-GFK-FAR EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD
RAIN IN MINNESOTA THRU THE DAY AND CONTINUED IFR CIGS EXPECTED.
PATCHY FOG NR FARGO WILL LIFT THIS MORNING. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE
ARRIVAL FOR STRONG WINDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND GUST TO 50
KTS KDVL PSBL 22Z-03Z PERIOD... AND 35-40 KTS INTO GFK-FAR 02-06Z
PERIOD PSBL 45 KT. DIRECTION FROM WEST-NORTHWEST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-049-052-053.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
MNZ001>004-007-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
711 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
BAND OF PRECIP IN CNTRL ND ATTM MINOT TO BISMARCK MOVING EAST. CAM
MODELS INSIST IT WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES EAST...BUT UNSURE SO
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP AS IT MOVES EAST. MORE TRACE EVENT STUFF.
ISSUE IS TEMPS AS CLOUDS WILL COME IN WITH THE PRECIP AND WARM UP
ENOUGH TO BE MOSTLY LIQUID BUT ISSUE IS NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS PRECIP
ARRIVES INTO FAR NW FCST AREA AND MAY DO SO IN TIME BEFORE TEMPS
RISE. WILL MENTION FZRA/RA IN FAR NW FCST AREA FOR THIS AT 15Z
THEN JUST -RA 16Z ONWARD. WILL NEED TO WATCH. O/W NO CHANGES.
VARIOUS 06Z MODEL DATA SUPPORTS PREV WIND IDEAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT OVERALL...BUT DETAILS ON WIND AND
SNOW ARE TOUGH. FIRST OFF...AREA OF RAIN ASSOC WITH MAIN UPPER LOW
IN KANSAS LIFTING NORTHEAST IS A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER
PROGGED. THUS DID PUSH THE HIGH POPS A BIT EAST AND EAST OF THE
RRV. CLOUD-CLEAR LINE FROM LAST EVENING HOLDING AS EXPECTED
HALLOCK-GRAND FORKS-FORMAN ND. SOME FOG NOTICED ESP EAST OF THE
RRV ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE LOW CLOUDS WITH SEVERAL SITES FROM
ROSEAU TO FOSSTON TO DTL DOWN 1/2 MILE OR LESS. ADDED AREAS OF FOG
THIS AREA THRU THE MORNING.
FOR THE DAY...THE RAIN WILL SPREAD UP THRU THE ERN FCST
AREA...WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST. CLEAR AREA OVER WRN
FCST AREA WHERE TEMPS DROPPED INTO THE LOW 20S WILL WARM UP AS
THERE IS A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND AHD OF THE FRONT AND COOLER
AIR. HRRR INDICATES A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ENTERING DVL REGION EARLY AFTN AND INTO RRV LATE AFTN. RE-WORKED
SOME POPS FOR THIS. MORE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THIS. RADAR OUT WEST
SHOWS PCPN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED AND THUS HAVE ONLY LOW POPS
FOR ANY AFTN PRECIP IN ERN ND.
ISSUE IS WIND. IT DOES APPEAR THAT JUST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW
HOURS THERE IS ENOUGH PRESSURE RISE, 850 MB COLD ADVECTION AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE TO BRING SOME OF THE 850 MB WINDS
(55-60 KT) TO THE SFC IN CNTRL ND AND WRN FCST AREA VERY LATE
AFTN-EVE. AS THESE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT FEEL FULL MIXING WILL NOT BE REALIZED AS MAIN CORE
OF PRESSURE RISES CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. REALLY TOUGH TO GET
WARNING CRITERIA WINDS AT NIGHT INTO THE RRV...AND FELT CHANCES
FOR THAT ARE QUITE LOW. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM A MUCH BETTER
BET. FELT TOO THAT PERIOD OF WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN FAR WRN
FCST AREA IS LIMITED AS WELL TO LATE AFTN-EVE AND THEN MORE
ADVISORY LEVELS AS FULL MIXING NOT REALIZED AS MUCH AS GFS
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISE COUPLET THAN WHAT I SEE FOR A
LONGER PD OF WARNING CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS. THIS IDEA GENERALLY
FOLLOWS LAV MOS GUIDANCE WELL WITH WIND GUSTS 45-49 KTS IN DVL
00Z-04Z PERIOD....THEN A BIT LOWER MORE LIKE 40-45 KT AFTER THAT.
INTO THE RRV AND GFK/FAR LAV MOS WINDS MORE SO 35-40 KT WIND
GUSTS. THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY.
DID NOT EXTEND ADVISORY FARTHER EAST INTO ERN HALF OF FCST
YET BASED ON COORDINATION. BUT SOME COUNTIES FROM THIEF RIVER TO
FERGUS FALLS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY AS THAT IS WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS THERE WILL OCCUR.
AS FOR WRAPAROUND PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW. PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING ABOUT A 12 HR PD OF SNOW 06Z-18Z THU IN NORTHEASTERN FCST
AREA. WPC SNOWFALL FCST SHOWS FAR NORTHEAST IN 3-4 INCH AREA ISOLD
5 MAYBE FLAG ISLAND/ANGLE INLET AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. MOST OF
THIS IS NOT TIL WELL PAST 00Z AND MORE SO 06Z AND AFTER AND THUS
ENOUGH TIME TO MONITOR FURTHER FOR ANY WINTER WX ADVISORY
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA OTHERWISE SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA AND SPREAD EAST AS UPPER
LOW DEPARTS SLOWLY THRU NRN ONTARIO THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THE TROF SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THICKNESS
VALUES INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
RETURNS...AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS POINT TOWARD A WARMING TREND FOR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LITTLE PCPN IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
MESSY TAFS AS WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS HCO-GFK-FAR EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD
RAIN IN MINNESOTA THRU THE DAY AND CONTINUED IFR CIGS EXPECTED.
PATCHY FOG NR FARGO WILL LIFT THIS MORNING. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE
ARRIVAL FOR STRONG WINDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND GUST TO 50
KTS KDVL PSBL 22Z-03Z PERIOD... AND 35-40 KTS INTO GFK-FAR 02-06Z
PERIOD PSBL 45 KT. DIRECTION FROM WEST-NORTHWEST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-049-052-053.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
MNZ001>004-007-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1036 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY...ALLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE MADE ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY WE
EXPECT DOWNSLOPING WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
EAST OF CLE TO ESPECIALLY THE ERIE PA REGION. IN ADDITION SOME
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO PREDICTING WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG AND
WEST OF I-71 WITH GUSTS IN THE WIND ADVISORY CAT OF 40-50 KNOTS.
MFD WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND SOME THIN SPOTS/BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ARE SPREADING OVER THIS REGION. THE HRRR HAS THE HIGHEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. ILN 12UTC SOUNDING HAD 50-70
KNOTS BELOW 850 MB. WILL CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE LAKES
TOMORROW. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT IS MOISTURE STARVE. IT WILL USHER IN MUCH MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY...FINALLY MOVING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM THIS
SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM INTO NW OHIO BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW BACK IN ILLINOIS.
BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS
SUNDAY BUT IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER SRN
ONTARIO OR QUEBEC WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA.
INTENSITIES ALSO VARY ALTHOUGH THE BIG TAKE AWAY IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH 850MB TEMPS -8 TO -12C WITH A
WEST FLOW OVER A FAIRLY WARM LAKE ERIE. MAIN THREAT FOR THE
PERIOD WILL BE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY
SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY TO THE LAKE WITH ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW ACROSS THE
SNOWBELT. BY MONDAY HOWEVER THE INVERSION WILL BE LOWERING AND DRY
AIR SHOULD BE MOVING IN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
SO WILL DROP POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. FOR A CHANGE
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT GUSTY SSE WINDS TODAY. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS SHOULD BE
COMMON THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR
THE KERI LAKESHORE WHERE GUSTS TO 45-50KNOTS POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. GUIDANCE SPLIT ON MVFR VS VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW KEPT FORECAST VFR THROUGH THE DAY
BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE WHEN RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TRICKY NEAR TERM MARINE FORECAST. WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH MN EARLY TODAY
INTO WRN ONTARIO. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE WARMER THAN THE WATER AND FOR
THE MOST PART SHOULD LOOSE MOMENTUM QUICKLY AS THEY MOVE OVER THE
WATER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO OVER 60S KNOTS LATER
TODAY JUST BELOW 2KFT. DUE TO TERRAIN AFFECTS...THIS INCREASES WINDS
ALONG THE ERIE LAKESHORE. WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO 37 KNOTS AT ERIE
AND SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD GET ONTO
THE LAKE AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GALES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ERIE
NEARSHORE. BROUGHT GALES IN AT 15Z AND CONTINUED THEM THROUGH 9Z
THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
DECREASE FROM GALES BUT WITH SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING AM EXPECTING
WAVES TO BE NOT ABOVE 4 FEET IN MOST OF THE NEARSHORE. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 30
KNOTS. WILL NEED TO BRING THE SMALL CRAFT BACK AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR GALES A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY MODELS DIFFER BUT AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>012-
017>020-027>031-036>038-047-089.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ061-149-169.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ147-148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1016 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY...ALLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE MADE ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY WE
EXPECT DOWNSLOPING WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
EAST OF CLE TO ESPECIALLY THE ERIE PA REGION. IN ADDITION SOME
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO PREDICTING WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG AND
WEST OF I-71 WITH GUSTS IN THE WIND ADVISORY CAT OF 40-50 KNOTS.
MFD WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND SOME THIN SPOTS/BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ARE SPREADING OVER THIS REGION. THE HRRR HAS THE HIGHEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. ILN 12UTC SOUNDING HAD 50-70
KNOTS BELOW 850 MB. WILL CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE LAKES
TOMORROW. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT IS MOISTURE STARVE. IT WILL USHER IN MUCH MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY...FINALLY MOVING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM THIS
SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM INTO NW OHIO BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW BACK IN ILLINOIS.
BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS
SUNDAY BUT IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER SRN
ONTARIO OR QUEBEC WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA.
INTENSITIES ALSO VARY ALTHOUGH THE BIG TAKE AWAY IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH 850MB TEMPS -8 TO -12C WITH A
WEST FLOW OVER A FAIRLY WARM LAKE ERIE. MAIN THREAT FOR THE
PERIOD WILL BE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY
SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY TO THE LAKE WITH ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW ACROSS THE
SNOWBELT. BY MONDAY HOWEVER THE INVERSION WILL BE LOWERING AND DRY
AIR SHOULD BE MOVING IN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
SO WILL DROP POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. FOR A CHANGE
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT GUSTY SSE WINDS TODAY. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS SHOULD BE
COMMON THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR
THE KERI LAKESHORE WHERE GUSTS TO 45-50KNOTS POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. GUIDANCE SPLIT ON MVFR VS VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW KEPT FORECAST VFR THROUGH THE DAY
BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE WHEN RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TRICKY NEAR TERM MARINE FORECAST. WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH MN EARLY TODAY
INTO WRN ONTARIO. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE WARMER THAN THE WATER AND FOR
THE MOST PART SHOULD LOOSE MOMENTUM QUICKLY AS THEY MOVE OVER THE
WATER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO OVER 60S KNOTS LATER
TODAY JUST BELOW 2KFT. DUE TO TERRAIN AFFECTS...THIS INCREASES WINDS
ALONG THE ERIE LAKESHORE. WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO 37 KNOTS AT ERIE
AND SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD GET ONTO
THE LAKE AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GALES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ERIE
NEARSHORE. BROUGHT GALES IN AT 15Z AND CONTINUED THEM THROUGH 9Z
THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
DECREASE FROM GALES BUT WITH SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING AM EXPECTING
WAVES TO BE NOT ABOVE 4 FEET IN MOST OF THE NEARSHORE. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 30
KNOTS. WILL NEED TO BRING THE SMALL CRAFT BACK AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR GALES A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY MODELS DIFFER BUT AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR OHZ012-089.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ061-149-169.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ147-148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
930 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
925 AM UPDATE...
THE INVERSION STILL LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS.
HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS WILL BE PICKING UP BY 16Z. THOUGH GUSTS MAY
NOT TECHNICALLY REACH 40 KT CRITERIA...STILL EXPECTING STRONG
GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KTS. SO THE ADVISORY CONTINUES AS
IS. REWORKED THE GRIDS USING LATEST HRRR AS A BASE. THIS DELAYS
PREFRONTAL BAND A HR OR SO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. KEPT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS GIVEN STRONG DOWNSLOPING. EXCEPTION BEING
E SLOPES OF RANDOLPH AND INTO POCAHONTAS COUNTIES WHERE SOME
PATCHY DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU MIDDAY. RAISED MAXT A FEW TICKS
ESPECIALLY ALONG I 79 CORRIDOR WHERE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
FROM DOWNSLOPING FLOW ARE MAXIMIZED. SOME MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S
POSSIBLE HERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
RIDGE TOPS...AND WV LOWLANDS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPING AREAS IN THE
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ADD
RANDOLPH...POCAHONTAS...AND BARBOUR COUNTIES TO THE WIND
ADVISORY...WITH RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES DROPPING OFF LATER
IN THE EVENING AS SOME GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
THERE AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION.
COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING CWA LATE TONIGHT...EXITING TO THE EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG LLJ...ON THE ORDER
OF 60+ KTS...WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE AREA...WITH PW
VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES. EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING
SOME -DZ OR -SHRA DEVELOPING TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN SE
UPSLOPE AREAS.
WITH THE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE EVEN
WARMER THAN TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WV LOWLANDS...AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES TODAY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME
DECREASE IN WINDS TOWARDS MORNING...BUT STILL OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT
TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING EAST OF
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO WV TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING QUICKLY EAST ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP PCPN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN...OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE SUPER BLEND AND NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT A COOLING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NORTHERN BRANCH 500 MB TROF DIVES ESE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT TO WHIP THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING. OF
COURSE... MOISTURE MUCH MORE LIMITED...PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW 0.75
INCHES. THINKING DYNAMICS ENOUGH FOR SOME FAST MOVING RAIN
SHOWERS...SO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE CHANCE POP CATEGORY MORE WIDESPREAD FOR SATURDAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS.
MUCH COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE WITH 850 TEMPS OF MINUS 10 TO MINUS 12C.
SO WENT COLDER FOR TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH TEENS
AOA 4000 FEET FOR DAWN SUNDAY. HAD SOME LIKELY POPS FOR SQUEEZING
OUT THE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER OUR WV CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME OF THE WESTERN LOWLANDS FINALLY SEEING THEIR
FIRST FLAKES OF THE NEW SEASON.
12Z GFS HOLD MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LONGER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TRENDED LESS...SINCE THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF SHOULD HAVE PASSED BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 22Z...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING AT SITES KBKW IN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...AND -DZ.
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AREA WIDE...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE TEENS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO AROUND 00Z. EXPECT
+SHRA...AND THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AFTER 00Z. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHRA WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
06-09Z...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS LINGERING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND ASSOCIATED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-
013>018-024>030-033>040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ086-087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
950 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRAVERSE MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE THUNDER IS BEING SEEN AT THIS
TIME. MOST EVERYONE WILL SEE 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THIS EVENT IS
OVER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AHEAD OF AND WITH THE RAINS.
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE NOON HOUR. WILL
LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT NOON HOWEVER AS THE CRITERIA-
REACHING WINDS SHOULD BE OFF THE PLATEAU BY THEN.
RAINS WILL START TO TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
WEST TO EAST AND I THINK SOME OF OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG
THE TENNESSEE RIVER MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME SUN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS A DRY POCKET OF AIR FILTERS IN BEFORE CLOUDING OVER AGAIN THIS
EVENING.
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT UPDATE TIME.
UNGER
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
RA/+RA ALREADY AFFECTING CKV/BNA THIS MORNING AND WILL REACH CSV
BY 15Z...WITH RAIN ENDING AT CKV AROUND 17Z...BNA 19Z...AND CSV
23Z PER HRRR MODEL. GUSTY SE WINDS OVER 30KTS AT TIMES TO CONTINUE
AT BNA UNTIL 13Z...AND 17Z AT CSV...UNTIL WSHIFT PASSES AND WINDS
SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY. VFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH
TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT CSV.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
620 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
.12Z AVIATION UPDATE...
RA/+RA ALREADY AFFECTING CKV/BNA THIS MORNING AND WILL REACH CSV
BY 15Z...WITH RAIN ENDING AT CKV AROUND 17Z...BNA 19Z...AND CSV
23Z PER HRRR MODEL. GUSTY SE WINDS OVER 30KTS AT TIMES TO
CONTINUE AT BNA UNTIL 13Z...AND 17Z AT CSV...UNTIL WSHIFT PASSES
AND WINDS SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY. VFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS GENERALLY
EXPECTED WITH TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT CSV.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX SETUP SYNOPTICALLY FROM PLAINS INTO SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
989 MBAR SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER IOWA THIS MORNING WITH
OCCLUDED FRONT DOWN THROUGH FAR EASTERN MISSOURI THEN DRAPED DOWN
THROUGH MEMPHIS AREA INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA. WARM FRONT FROM
ABOUT DYERSBURG TO TALLAHASSEE. PRIMARY AIR MASS CHANGE (PACIFIC
AIR MASS) STILL BACK BEHIND COLD FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
LATEST RADARS SHOWING RATHER BROAD SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS WITH AN
EMBEDDED SKINNY LINE OF STRONGER SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
EXTENDING FROM FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHWARD ALONG TENNESSEE
RIVER INTO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY BEEN WORKING
STEADILY BUT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WILL EVENTUALLY WORKS IT WAY
INTO WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING AND TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF
HYDRODYNAMICS (STRONG WIND FIELDS) ACROSS OUR AREA WITH 75 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET THERE IS A LACK OF THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY (LOW
CAPE). SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS BUT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS TIGHER THAN DICKS HAT BAND SO LOOK FOR WIND GUSTS ON
THE ORDER OF 40 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS THE MID STATE...WHICH WILL
BLOW LIDS OFF TRASH CANS AND BREAK A FEW LIMBS. BY THIS EVENING
SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM AREA TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT BUT
PLATEAU LIKELY TO HAVE SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM CST. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AS SURFACE PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS TONIGHT DOWN IN THE 40S AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT DOWN IN THE 30S AND
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTS WITH FREEZING TEMPS ESPECIALLY MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AS HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WIND FIELD AND CLEAR SKIES
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPS AS THIS WILL BE CONTINETAL POLAR AIR...COLDEST OF
THE SEASON SO FAR WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DOWN IN THE 20S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING AS WE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. I KEPT IT DRY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 67 46 62 36 / 100 10 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 64 44 61 34 / 100 10 0 10
CROSSVILLE 68 46 61 35 / 100 40 0 10
COLUMBIA 66 42 63 33 / 100 10 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 66 43 63 36 / 100 10 0 10
WAVERLY 61 46 62 37 / 100 10 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
.AVIATION...
DRY VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TROUGH GRADUALLY
DEEPENING TODAY LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. SEVERAL CHANGE GROUPS FOR
TAFS RELATED TO WIND CHANGES. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS WERE UNWINDING THIS MORNING JUST BEHIND
THE UPPER LOW SPINNING THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
OPEN WHILE LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING WILL DOMINATE. LATER TODAY...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL CURL
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SLIGHTLY
BACKED FLOW LEADING TO SURFACE TROUGHING. RESULT WILL BE MODESTLY
BREEZY WEST WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. SOLUTIONS
FAVOR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR BEST OF THESE LOW-END BREEZES...SUSTAINED
15 TO 20 KNOTS OR SO. STARTING OUT FAIRLY COOL THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH THE ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE FLOW TEMPERATURES BY LATER TODAY SHOULD
END UP NEAR OR NOTCH ABOVE MID-NOVEMBER NORMALS. ALSO GAVE LEAN
TOWARD RECENT RAP DEWPOINT SOLUTIONS SHOWING MORE SURFACE DRYING
SOUTHERN AREAS...MAKES SENSE THIS PATTERN.
BY THIS EVENING THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
LOOSENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND STILL SOMEWHAT MILD
TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT FLUNG SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SYSTEM...WILL EDGE THROUGH THE AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS ALSO ON THE LOW END OF BREEZY BEHIND THIS WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF FRONTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION COURTESY OF A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS LOWER CANADA INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A SUBTLE SHOT OF
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS INITIAL SYSTEM WILL KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S FOR THE MOST PART THURSDAY BEFORE RENEWED
SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE FRONT RANGE VEERS WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY FOR
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S BEFORE A
MUCH STRONGER FRONT ENTERS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A 1035 MB
SURFACE RIDGE WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS TO ON THE ORDER OF
20-25 MPH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
FALL SEASON WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 40S.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT IN
VICINITY OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...PERHAPS VEERING
WINDS SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SOME POSSIBLE WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MODIFIED-ARCTIC AIRMASS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A HARD FREEZE WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 20S
ON MUCH OF THE CAPROCK WHILE LOCALES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS REMAIN
IN THE MID-UPPER 20S SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL THEN KEEP AN EYE ON YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PROPAGATING THROUGH
THE LONG-LIVED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME BEFORE BACKING FLOW ALOFT
TAKES PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK DOWNSTREAM OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST. SUBTROPICAL JET POSSIBLY COUPLED WITH THE POLAR JET
BY MID WEEK WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ATTEMPTING TO ENHANCE MID-UPPER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...TIMING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND
FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAYS FRONT WILL BE THE DRIVER AS TO WHEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAKE A HOLD LOCALLY. SOME INDICATIONS OF
ENOUGH OF THIS BY TUESDAY...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT TO
INTRODUCE POPS GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE EARLY WEEKEND FRONT. THESE
CHANCES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE WESTERN CONUS SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. NONETHELESS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 60S DURING THE WEEK WITH LOWS
IN THE 30S/40S.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
409 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS WERE UNWINDING THIS MORNING JUST BEHIND
THE UPPER LOW SPINNING THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
OPEN WHILE LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING WILL DOMINATE. LATER TODAY...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL CURL
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SLIGHTLY
BACKED FLOW LEADING TO SURFACE TROUGHING. RESULT WILL BE MODESTLY
BREEZY WEST WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. SOLUTIONS
FAVOR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR BEST OF THESE LOW-END BREEZES...SUSTAINED
15 TO 20 KNOTS OR SO. STARTING OUT FAIRLY COOL THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH THE ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE FLOW TEMPERATURES BY LATER TODAY SHOULD
END UP NEAR OR NOTCH ABOVE MID-NOVEMBER NORMALS. ALSO GAVE LEAN
TOWARD RECENT RAP DEWPOINT SOLUTIONS SHOWING MORE SURFACE DRYING
SOUTHERN AREAS...MAKES SENSE THIS PATTERN.
BY THIS EVENING THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
LOOSENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND STILL SOMEWHAT MILD
TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT FLUNG SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SYSTEM...WILL EDGE THROUGH THE AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS ALSO ON THE LOW END OF BREEZY BEHIND THIS WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. RMCQUEEN
.LONG TERM...
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF FRONTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION COURTESY OF A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS LOWER CANADA INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A SUBTLE SHOT OF
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS INITIAL SYSTEM WILL KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S FOR THE MOST PART THURSDAY BEFORE RENEWED
SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE FRONT RANGE VEERS WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY FOR
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S BEFORE A
MUCH STRONGER FRONT ENTERS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A 1035 MB
SURFACE RIDGE WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS TO ON THE ORDER OF
20-25 MPH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
FALL SEASON WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 40S.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT IN
VICINITY OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...PERHAPS VEERING
WINDS SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SOME POSSIBLE WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MODIFIED-ARCTIC AIRMASS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A HARD FREEZE WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 20S
ON MUCH OF THE CAPROCK WHILE LOCALES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS REMAIN
IN THE MID-UPPER 20S SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL THEN KEEP AN EYE ON YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PROPAGATING THROUGH
THE LONG-LIVED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME BEFORE BACKING FLOW ALOFT
TAKES PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK DOWNSTREAM OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST. SUBTROPICAL JET POSSIBLY COUPLED WITH THE POLAR JET
BY MID WEEK WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ATTEMPTING TO ENHANCE MID-UPPER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...TIMING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND
FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAYS FRONT WILL BE THE DRIVER AS TO WHEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAKE A HOLD LOCALLY. SOME INDICATIONS OF
ENOUGH OF THIS BY TUESDAY...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT TO
INTRODUCE POPS GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE EARLY WEEKEND FRONT. THESE
CHANCES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE WESTERN CONUS SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. NONETHELESS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 60S DURING THE WEEK WITH LOWS
IN THE 30S/40S.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
511 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD UNDER A CANOPY OF INCREASING CLOUDS.
SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL BREAK EARLY THURSDAY FOLLOWING BY HEAVIER
SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY EVEN
COLDER AIR AND SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. TEMEPRATURES
REMAINED MILD...50-55 IN MOST PLACES.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE AVERAGED 10-15 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING THROUGH THE 40S. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS MILDER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS WAS PRODUCING THE STRATUS
WHICH SHOULD ENCROACH ALL AREAS SHORTLY AFTER DARK. THESE CLOUDS...
ADDITIONAL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A PERSISTENT BREEZE SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL. THEREFORE...WE WENT A BIT
HIGHER THAN ALL MACHINE GUIDANCE REGARDING OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...UPPER 40S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS OVERNIGHT THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE SPOTTY DRIZZLE...
MAINLY ACROSS OUR CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE BUT EVEN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
LITCHFIELD AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE BY
MIDNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...EVERYONE COULD SEE A LITTLE SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR A LIGHT
SHOWER ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TONIGHT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY THURSDAY...OUR WHOLE AREA WILL BE IN A MOIST MILD AIR MASS
WITH A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS IS THE SAME SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED QUITE AN ARRAY OF FOUL WEATHER
OUT WEST...INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER AND EVEN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
NEITHER IS EXPECTED FOR US (INSTABILITY NOT THERE FOR ANY REAL
CONVECTION). A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES >0 AND CAPE VALUES NEAR 0 J/KG WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
THAT SAID...WITH PWATS SOARING PAST AN INCH....TWO STANDARDS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE...THE FRONT...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND OUR AREA COMING UNDER THE DIVERGENT AREA OF THE RR 100KT
NIGHT BY EVENING...ALL POINT TO ROUND OF SHOWERS...SOME CONTAINING
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WHAT IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...THERE IS LESS OF TENDENCY FOR
A SECONDARY WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT...AS THERE WAS
IN SOME EARLIER RUNS. IT LOOKS LIKE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...PRETTY MUCH
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN.
A GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL ENSUE ON THURSDAY...10-15 MPH...WITH GUSTS
25-35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND EVEN
SOME SECTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY. DURING
HEAVY SHOWERS...IT IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE THAT SOME GUSTS COULD EVEN
REACH A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THAN THAT...BUT JUST BRIEFLY.
THEREFORE...NO WIND HEADLINES WERE ASSIGNED WITH THIS PACKAGE.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN BY EARLY FRIDAY.
IN FACT...THE SKY MIGHT ACTUALLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY OR AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR.
BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN ALL MACHINE GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS LOWER TO MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 50S EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TURNING COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW LOOKS TOO ANTI-
CYCLONIC FOR MUCH LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS (OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR RAIN AND WET SNOW MIXED ARE
POSSIBLE).
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THURSDAY...HIGHS NEAR 50
IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 40
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE MIDWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO LATEST GFS/ECMWF...AS THE SFC
CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SE
ONTARIO BY 12Z SUN. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TO THE SYSTEM FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW SHOWERS. THERE IS DECENT LIFT AND CONVERGENCE WITH THE
BOUNDARY. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A COATING
TO LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND AN INCH OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LIGHT SNOW IS SUPPORTED FROM SOME OF
THE ENSEMBLES. THE LATEST GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM YIELDS ABOUT A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR ALBANY WITH PERHAPS A HALF DOZEN MEMBERS OR
SO. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U20S OVER THE MTNS TO
U20S TO L30S OVER THE VALLEYS.
SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY WITH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHING THE REGION. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH H850 TEMPS FALL TO -7C TO -10C. SOME SCT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY
WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS ENOUGH WITH TEMPS IN THEN 40-45F
RANGE. THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
GREENS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...EXCEPT SOME
U20S IN THE SRN DACKS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A COLD AIR MASS BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE BASED ON THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE. LOCATIONS IN THE WRN DACKS...AND W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY MAY GET AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS. THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT COLD. THE LATEST GFS H850 TEMPS FALL TO
-10C TO -13C OVER THE FCST AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND U20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO L20S OVER THE MTNS. HIGHS ON MONDAY
RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U20S TO M30S
OVER THE MTNS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL SHOULD
TAPER...AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
ZONAL FLOW COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS TUE AFTERNOON WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. TEMPS MODERATE TO
SEASONAL VALUES ON TUESDAY WITH SOME MID AND U40S IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...TACONICS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. U30S TO L40S
ARE COMMON NORTH AND WEST.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN OVER
THE NORTHEAST WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK...AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS.
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH PCPN BELOW NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DETIORATE TO MVFR THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
STRATUS CONTINUED TO ENCROACH THE ENTIRE AREA AND SHOULD DO SO
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. THESE STRATUS WILL START IN THE VFR (3500
FEET AGL) BUT SHOULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR...POSSIBLY LOW MVFR
RANGE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF. FOR NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS BUT IF YOU ARE
PLANNING TO FLY OVERNIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW YOU MIGHT WANT TO
DOUBLE CHECK THE FORECAST.
WE EXPECT SPOTTY DRIZZLE (NOT EXTENSIVE DRIZZLE) TOWARD
SUNRISE THURSDAY. THEN...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.
A SOUTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10KTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATER ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES BUT NOT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOOK FOR MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CONDITIONS HEADING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SOAKING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WE DID NOT ASSIGN A "WET FLAG" TO OUR NFDRS
SINCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL NOT FALL UNTIL AFTER 100 PM
THURSDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE EVERYWHERE.
IT DRIES OUT FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5- 15 MPH.
ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THERE
MIGHT BE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS IN ON GUSTY WINDS FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...SO IT WILL NOT LINGER TOO LONG.
IT DRIES OUT BY FRIDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH IN
THE VALLEYS...POSSIBLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES.
THIS RAIN WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES...MAYBE A FEW SPOTS
APPROACHING ACTION STAGE. NO FLOODING EXPECTED.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT PCPN IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO HYDROLOGICAL
IMPACTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
445 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD UNDER A CANOPY OF INCREASING CLOUDS.
SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL BREAK EARLY THURSDAY FOLLOWING BY HEAVIER
SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY EVEN
COLDER AIR AND SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. TEMEPRATURES
REMAINED MILD...50-55 IN MOST PLACES.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE AVERAGED 10-15 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING THROUGH THE 40S. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS MILDER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS WAS PRODUCING THE STRATUS
WHICH SHOULD ENCROACH ALL AREAS SHORTLY AFTER DARK. THESE CLOUDS...
ADDITIONAL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A PERSISTENT BREEZE SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL. THEREFORE...WE WENT A BIT
HIGHER THAN ALL MACHINE GUIDANCE REGARDING OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...UPPER 40S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS OVERNIGHT THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE SPOTTY DRIZZLE...
MAINLY ACROSS OUR CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE BUT EVEN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
LITCHFIELD AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE BY
MIDNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...EVERYONE COULD SEE A LITTLE SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR A LIGHT
SHOWER ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TONIGHT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY THURSDAY...OUR WHOLE AREA WILL BE IN A MOIST MILD AIR MASS
WITH A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS IS THE SAME SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED QUITE AN ARRAY OF FOUL WEATHER
OUT WEST...INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER AND EVEN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
NEITHER IS EXPECTED FOR US (INSTABILITY NOT THERE FOR ANY REAL
CONVECTION). A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES >0 AND CAPE VALUES NEAR 0 J/KG WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
THAT SAID...WITH PWATS SOARING PAST AN INCH....TWO STANDARDS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE...THE FRONT...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND OUR AREA COMING UNDER THE DIVERGENT AREA OF THE RR 100KT
NIGHT BY EVENING...ALL POINT TO ROUND OF SHOWERS...SOME CONTAINING
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WHAT IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...THERE IS LESS OF TENDENCY FOR
A SECONDARY WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT...AS THERE WAS
IN SOME EARLIER RUNS. IT LOOKS LIKE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...PRETTY MUCH
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN BY EARLY FRIDAY.
IN FACT...THE SKY MIGHT ACTUALLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY OR AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR.
BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN ALL MACHINE GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS LOWER TO MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 50S EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TURNING COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW LOOKS TOO ANTI-
CYCLONIC FOR MUCH LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS (OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR RAIN AND WET SNOW MIXED ARE
POSSIBLE).
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THURSDAY...HIGHS NEAR 50
IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 40
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE MIDWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO LATEST GFS/ECMWF...AS THE SFC
CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SE
ONTARIO BY 12Z SUN. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TO THE SYSTEM FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW SHOWERS. THERE IS DECENT LIFT AND CONVERGENCE WITH THE
BOUNDARY. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A COATING
TO LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND AN INCH OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LIGHT SNOW IS SUPPORTED FROM SOME OF
THE ENSEMBLES. THE LATEST GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM YIELDS ABOUT A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR ALBANY WITH PERHAPS A HALF DOZEN MEMBERS OR
SO. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U20S OVER THE MTNS TO
U20S TO L30S OVER THE VALLEYS.
SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY WITH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHING THE REGION. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH H850 TEMPS FALL TO -7C TO -10C. SOME SCT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY
WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS ENOUGH WITH TEMPS IN THEN 40-45F
RANGE. THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
GREENS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...EXCEPT SOME
U20S IN THE SRN DACKS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A COLD AIR MASS BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE BASED ON THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE. LOCATIONS IN THE WRN DACKS...AND W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY MAY GET AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS. THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT COLD. THE LATEST GFS H850 TEMPS FALL TO
-10C TO -13C OVER THE FCST AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND U20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO L20S OVER THE MTNS. HIGHS ON MONDAY
RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U20S TO M30S
OVER THE MTNS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL SHOULD
TAPER...AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
ZONAL FLOW COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS TUE AFTERNOON WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. TEMPS MODERATE TO
SEASONAL VALUES ON TUESDAY WITH SOME MID AND U40S IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...TACONICS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. U30S TO L40S
ARE COMMON NORTH AND WEST.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN OVER
THE NORTHEAST WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK...AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS.
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH PCPN BELOW NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DETIORATE TO MVFR THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
STRATUS CONTINUED TO ENCROACH THE ENTIRE AREA AND SHOULD DO SO
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. THESE STRATUS WILL START IN THE VFR (3500
FEET AGL) BUT SHOULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR...POSSIBLY LOW MVFR
RANGE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF. FOR NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS BUT IF YOU ARE
PLANNING TO FLY OVERNIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW YOU MIGHT WANT TO
DOUBLE CHECK THE FORECAST.
WE EXPECT SPOTTY DRIZZLE (NOT EXTENSIVE DRIZZLE) TOWARD
SUNRISE THURSDAY. THEN...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.
A SOUTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10KTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATER ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES BUT NOT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOOK FOR MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CONDITIONS HEADING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SOAKING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WE DID NOT ASSIGN A "WET FLAG" TO OUR NFDRS
SINCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL NOT FALL UNTIL AFTER 100 PM
THURSDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE EVERYWHERE.
IT DRIES OUT FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5- 15 MPH.
ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THERE
MIGHT BE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS IN ON GUSTY WINDS FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...SO IT WILL NOT LINGER TOO LONG.
IT DRIES OUT BY FRIDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH IN
THE VALLEYS...POSSIBLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES.
THIS RAIN WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES...MAYBE A FEW SPOTS
APPROACHING ACTION STAGE. NO FLOODING EXPECTED.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT PCPN IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO HYDROLOGICAL
IMPACTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1251 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER TODAY...
THEN A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS
FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN ZONES AT SOME POINT DURING THE
WEEKEND. DRY...COOL WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1245 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS W MA AND N CT AND EXTENDING INTO S RI IS
ERODING ON WESTERN END ACROSS W CT. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS ARE
ADVANCING NE FROM SE NY. A PERIOD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS LIKELY IN
W MA AND WESTERN HALF CT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS FILL BACK
IN. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS E MA WITH LEADING
EDGE OF LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS RI AND CENTRAL MA.
UPDATED T/TD/SKY GRIDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED ACROSS N CT AND W MA THIS MORNING. RAP AND
NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB PICKING
UP ON THESE CLOUDS AND SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND INTO RI
AND CENTRAL MA THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO SE MA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MOST SUNSHINE THROUGH TODAY WILL BE ACROSS E MA. ADJUSTED
SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE
WEST DUE TO CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...MILDEST TEMPS ACROSS E MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL LOTS OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES.
RAINFALL CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUDS COULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND. EXPECTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MIN
TEMPERATURES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS
WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RAIN LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* SEASONABLY COOL OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MON
* SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...18/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLANDS WEATHER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BETWEEN
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PWATS 2 TO 3
STD ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ENOUGH FORCING TO
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAINFALL.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. THE MODELS HAVE FLIP
FLOPPED FROM LAST NIGHT WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED OUT OF THE GFS
/OVER 2 INCHES/ VERSUS ABOUT AN INCH OUT OF THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE
LAST FEW STORMS UNDER PERFORMING AND THE GFS BEING THE OUTLIER FOR
THIS STORM THE LAST FEW RUNS...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE WPC QPF
WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A BLEND. THIS KEEPS RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THE INCH TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE.
DESPITE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WARMER TEMPERATURES JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP THESE STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE GFS MOVES HIGH PRESSURE OUT QUICKLY AND BRINGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH BOTH
DAYS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...BOTH
MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT SOME PRECIP...MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BUT REACHING DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MOSTLY RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A FEW SNOW FLAKES
COULD MIX IN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE MODELS FOR THIS TIME FRAME DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES EARLIER ON.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST MONDAY BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL WEATHER TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THROUGH 00Z...MVFR CIGS ACROSS W MA...N CT AND RI WILL EXPAND
ACROSS CENTRAL MA. CLOUDS MAY TEMPORARILY SCATTER OUT WITH A
PERIOD OF VFR IN THE CT VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINING VFR E
MA.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS EXPANDING EAST ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENG BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LOW PROB FOR IFR
CIGS W NEW ENG LATE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN W NEW ENG
LATE.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AS
SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY...NOT LIKELY
REACHING SE COASTAL MA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. AREAS OF IFR W NEW
ENG DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOP. S/SE WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT DEVELOPING ALONG THE S COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING
AS HEAVY SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS OF FOG. ISOLD
THUNDER POSSIBLE S COAST. S WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND S COAST. LOCALIZED LLWS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY IN
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND AREAS OF FOG. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT A
LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/SHSN ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES SOMETIME SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER THROUGH TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RATHER
TRANQUIL SEAS. SE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DEVELOPING OVER RI COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
S-SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED
FRONT. SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS. THEY SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
WESTERLY MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ231>233-250-251-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
432 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY, BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY, WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AT 20Z...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION. AREA RADARS
SHOWING A FEW LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AREA...BUT
NOTHING COMING OUT OF THESE RETURNS EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR
VIRGA. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION HAS MOISTENED OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
THE 12Z MODELS AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE N-S ORIENTED BAND
OF PRECIP THAT IS APPROACHING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD.
LATEST 19Z HRRR HAS EDGE OF PRECIP AT 10Z ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE
CWA. THE 12Z NAM ACTUALLY HANDLED THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP
PRETTY WELL...AND LEANED MORE ON ITS TIMING FOR PRECIP ONSET
DURATION. MODELS SHOW WINDS AT 925 AND 850 HPA INCREASING OVERNIGHT
WITH A 40-50 KT SPEED MAX MOVING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
12Z/THU. SO GENERALLY EXPECTING A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS WRN ZNS BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE ZONE OF PRECIP CONSISTING OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED SO TSTMS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THIS UPDATE. WHILE THE
PRECIP AREA WILL MOVE OUT DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS...
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SOMETIME IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT FALL OFF ALL
THAT QUICKLY AS THE AIRMASS IS NOT THAT COLD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING...BUT MOISTURE-LIMITED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND USHER IN COOL HIGH
PRESSURE. THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WITH
A FEW WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THESE
SYSTEMS AND EXPECT THE PERIOD TO BE GENERALLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS EAST TO SADDEST AT 8-12 KT WITH OVC CIGS
ABOVE 3 KFT. A FEW TERMINALS...KABE, KRDG AND KTTN HAVE CIGS
020-025 AND EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 4-6 HRS. A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE DEL BAY AREA THROUGH 22Z...OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER THROUGH 00Z.
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR UNTIL 06Z...WITH SOME IFR CIGS
AT KABE, KRDG, KTTN. TOWARDS MORNING...SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST...REACHING THE KPHL/KPNE
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 09-10Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 4-5 KFT WILL INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z WITH SOME SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
GUSTING 20-25KT AT TIMES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. PRECIP WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPRVING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM MVFR/LCL IFR TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE SHOWERS MID-DAY
SUNDAY MAINLY NW PORTION.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. WINDS ON THUR WILL HAVE
NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING
GALE CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT. CHANCE OF NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS.
FRIDAY..SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...A RETURN OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ453>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
MARINE...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
109 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.AVIATION...
TODAY HAS BEEN A VERY QUESTIONABLE DAY WITH RESPECT TO ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT RADAR AND SATELLITE
SHOW THEY ARE HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING GOING. SO, HAVE KEPT A
RELUCTANT VCSH IN THE TAFS, BUT LIKELY WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY, LET ALONE ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO BE WINDING DOWN TONIGHT, AND THE WIND WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER TOMORROW. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME BRIEF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE, BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI NIGHT)...
TODAY...AS THE WIND PROFILE VEERS SLIGHTLY TODAY TO THE SE, IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND WESTERN
GULF COLD FRONT, A SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
BE DRAWN INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MODEL PWATS RISE TDY AND ARE
CLOSE TO 2" BY 0Z THURS. HRRR AND OTHER HI RES MODELS ARE MUCH
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY, THAN YESTERDAY. THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE
RATHER DRY NAM/GFS. MOST ACTIVITY IS DEPICTED ACROSS BROWARD AND
PALM BEACH COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN GUIDANCE, STILL CAN`T RULE OUT SOME DEEPER SHOWERS
TRAINING OVER PARTS OF THE EAST COAST PRODUCING HVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION, SHOWERS MAY BE ARRIVING LATE DAY FOR
HENDRY/GLADES/COLLIER FROM THE GULF WATERS, WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
TONIGHT...SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT SLOWS AND BEGINS TO STRETCH OUT ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. COASTAL SHOWERS REMAIN.
TOMORROW...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL ENTER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY, WHICH WILL SHOVE THE RIDGE AXIS/SURFACE HIGH OFF THE EAST
COAST. THUS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, WINDS CONTINUE TO
LESSEN AND THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT INCREASES. WITH PWATS
REMAINING NEAR 2", SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.
FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT AND SUBTLE PVA ARRIVE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT STALLS, H5 TEMPS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION. LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. APPEARS
AS THOUGH A WEAK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP. BETTER CHC
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS DAY, DEVELOPING EARLY ALONG THE COAST
THEN PROGRESSING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM (SAT-WED)...
THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK CLOUDY AND WET. FRONT IS
STATIONARY NEARBY, AND A ZONAL JET ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ABLE
TO TRANSPORT SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTO FL ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ECMWF
HAS SOME COPIOUS RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY, BUT
GOOD RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY CONSIDERING THIS
PATTERN. MAY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. IN FACT, THE ECMWF IS NOW SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT AND IS MUCH MORE UNSETTLED ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE
GFS.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY GETS
SHOVED THROUGH SOUTH FL INTO MONDAY. 100KT JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH
THE GULF WILL PROVIDE A SUFFICIENT BUMP. MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR AGAIN LOOKS TO BE ON THE WAY BASED ON GFS/ECMWF/GEFS 0Z
SUITE INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE
CHANGE TO SAY THE LEAST AFTER A SIZZLING EARLY FALL.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADV CONTINUES FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN
MORE SO BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEN SPEEDS FALL BELOW 10
KTS. A FRONT STALLS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AND
SEAS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 86 71 85 / 50 50 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 85 72 84 / 50 50 60 50
MIAMI 78 85 74 85 / 50 50 60 50
NAPLES 73 85 72 85 / 30 40 40 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
313 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015
20z/2pm surface chart shows 980mb low over southwest Ontario, with a
cold front extending southeastward into the Ohio River Valley. A
secondary front/trough axis is noted further west along/just west of
the Mississippi River. This second feature will swing through
central Illinois this evening, accompanied by clouds and wind, but
no precip. Southerly winds have been gusting to between 30 and 40
mph this afternoon, but will veer to the southwest this evening then
to the west late tonight as the trough passes. Forecast soundings
suggest mostly cloudy skies early on will eventually give way to
clearing from west to east overnight. Due to cloud cover for a good
portion of the night and continued gusty winds, have gone a few
degrees above MAV guidance numbers, with lows ranging from the
middle 30s northwest of the Illinois River to the lower 40s
along/south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015
Morning upper air shows upper trough to move east across area today,
gradually bringing drier air aloft in.
Next system is a low pressure center to move into the area friday
night into saturday. Model differences though on the track. Nam
model at 12z looked to be preferred model which was further north
acorss northern central IL with the main snow area over northern IL
and southern WI. 18z NAM is now slower, but still in the northern
track. Plenty of cold air and during the overnight hours friday
night makes the best area for light snow on friday night and
saturday morning, over the northern half of the CWA with light
accumulations expected. Because this possibly being the first
measureable snow of year, will need to continue to watch the changes
in the model. Coordination and colaboration with WPC and surrounding
offices done in graphics and chatroom.
After a cool remainder of the weekend and start of the workweek,
some warming, but another warm advection rain event possible into
Wednesday. Amounts look to be light at this time, but still early.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015
Dry slot associated with upper low over northeast Iowa is
currently working its way into west-central Illinois and will
gradually push eastward across the remainder of the area this
afternoon. End result will be VFR ceilings or even a temporary
loss of ceilings...especially at KSPI where 1730z visible
satellite imagery shows partial clearing just off to the west.
Main aviation weather forecast challenge will be timing the return
of MVFR ceilings currently poised upstream across Missouri. HRRR
suggests these clouds will arrive at KPIA and KSPI between 21z
and 22z...but the bigger question is whether they will reach the
easternmost terminals at all. While the HRRR seems to think so,
NAM forecast soundings keep ceilings a bit higher further east.
Based on current trajectory of clouds, have opted to maintain low
VFR ceilings at both KDEC and KCMI late this afternoon into the
evening. Clouds clear from west to east by mid to late evening,
leaving behind clear skies across the board by Thursday morning.
Other concern is the strong winds. Southerly winds gusting to
between 30 and 35kt this afternoon will veer to the southwest and
decrease to less than 25kt this evening. Once the sun comes up,
westerly wind gusts will increase back into the 25 to 30kt range
by Thursday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1204 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
Made a few quick updates to the forecast earlier this morning to
lower PoPs, as the steady/heavy rain has now shifted well to the
east into Indiana. 1543z radar imagery shows very little precip in
the KILX CWA other than perhaps a few isolated showers. While an
initial cold front has now passed to the east, the main push of
colder air remains to the west across western Iowa/Missouri.
Before the primary cold front arrives later this afternoon, gusty
southerly winds will keep temperatures on the mild side in the
upper 50s/lower 60s. May even see some partial clearing for a time
across the southern half of the CWA from late morning through mid-
afternoon as a pronounced mid-level dry slot seen on latest
visible satellite imagery from Arkansas into west-central Illinois
traverses eastward across the area. Latest zone update has already
been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
Strong low pressure area will continue to lift northward today and
reach northern MN by late this afternoon. Pcpn associated with this
system over the CWA will continue moving north while the whole area
of pcpn slowly moves east through the morning. This will keep some
moderate rain and isolated thunderstorms moving across eastern IL
this morning. Flood Watch still continues until 6am but have trimmed
off quite a few counties and just left the eastern and southeastern
counties in the watch til 6am. Watch will be allowed to expire at
6am and based on radar trends, thinking is most of the heaviest pcpn
will be east of the area by 6am. With center of low pressure area
being a 989mb low, pressure gradient is very tight, so expecting
very gusty winds today, with gusts to around 40 mph possible from
late this morning into the afternoon. Winds will decrease late
afternoon and into the evening. Gusty southeast, becoming
south/southwest winds will allow temps to climb back to the lower
60s in the east and mid to upper 50s in the west. Given current
conditions of warm temps...pcpn...and thick cloud cover, forecasted
high temps not far from current temps. So steady temps in some areas
will be common.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
Now that we are getting this rain system out of the way, focus
shifts to some wintry precipitation potential for late in the week.
Upper air pattern will be transitioning to a broad trough that
covers most of the CONUS. Initial surge of cold air coming down from
Canada will glance by Illinois to the north on Thursday, but a more
prominent surge will drop southward on Friday. A fast moving
shortwave accompanying it will bring a period of precipitation to
the Midwest late in the week. The models have been settling on this
scenario the last few runs, but the exact placement and track has
been shifting some during the process. The latest ECMWF model has
slowed the cold air surge by about 6 hours, with its soundings
favoring more of a rain or rain/snow mix scenario Friday night
before changing to snow. The GFS continues with its faster surge of
colder air, favoring a quick changeover from rain to snow Friday
evening, although it also is much faster and weaker with the
precipitation and concentrates it all Friday night. The tail end of
the NAM appears too slow which keeps everything to our west until
Saturday, and the Canadian model is fairly close to the ECMWF
solution. Leaned more toward the ECMWF/Canadian consensus and
continued to focus the higher PoP`s across the northwest third of
the forecast area Friday night, with a general diminishing trend
from west to east on Saturday. Ground temperatures will hamper
accumulations in most areas aside from a light dusting, with the
better chances of seeing accumulation across the extreme northern
CWA.
The cold surge will result in highs only in the 30s across most of
the forecast area this weekend. However, the trough will shift east
quickly and transition the upper flow into more of a zonal
configuration early next week, allowing for moderating temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015
Dry slot associated with upper low over northeast Iowa is
currently working its way into west-central Illinois and will
gradually push eastward across the remainder of the area this
afternoon. End result will be VFR ceilings or even a temporary
loss of ceilings...especially at KSPI where 1730z visible
satellite imagery shows partial clearing just off to the west.
Main aviation weather forecast challenge will be timing the return
of MVFR ceilings currently poised upstream across Missouri. HRRR
suggests these clouds will arrive at KPIA and KSPI between 21z
and 22z...but the bigger question is whether they will reach the
easternmost terminals at all. While the HRRR seems to think so,
NAM forecast soundings keep ceilings a bit higher further east.
Based on current trajectory of clouds, have opted to maintain low
VFR ceilings at both KDEC and KCMI late this afternoon into the
evening. Clouds clear from west to east by mid to late evening,
leaving behind clear skies across the board by Thursday morning.
Other concern is the strong winds. Southerly winds gusting to
between 30 and 35kt this afternoon will veer to the southwest and
decrease to less than 25kt this evening. Once the sun comes up,
westerly wind gusts will increase back into the 25 to 30kt range
by Thursday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1225 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE
UPPER 60S EAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A LONG WAVE
TROF EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS REGION BY THU
MORNING. UPR LOW OVER KS LIFTING NNE WILL SHEAR OUT AS JET STREAK
PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW THIS MORNING DIGS UPR TROF OVER SWRN
CANADA SEWD INTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC... DEEP LOW OVER IA WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NNE INTO WRN ONTARIO. 75KT LLJ
OVER IL WILL MOVE E-NE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS BUT SHALLOW MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD KEEP SFC WINDS
BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE 20-25KT/G30-35KT RANGE WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS PSBL. LEFT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FCST CWA-WIDE AS
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WHICH COMBINED WITH MODEST FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN OCNL LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER ERN PORTION
OF THE AREA OF RAIN APCHG OUR CWA AND MODELS SUGGEST WK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONT TO ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME AS IT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING... SO HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS TO THE FCST IN THIS TIMEFRAME. LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NAM/GFS MOS TODAY WITH COOLER NAM/MET
SUGGESTING MUCH LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THAN GFS/MAV. NAM IS
RUNNING TOO COOL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ATTM... HWVR HRRR IS
SUGGESTING RAIN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR CWA BY 18Z WHICH
WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL RISES... THUS STAYED CLOSE TO GOING FCST WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE L60S WEST TO THE U60S EAST.
FRONTAL PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 00Z THU. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVG EAST FROM SWRN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MERGING
WITH ONTARIO LOW TONIGHT WILL PUSH A SECONDARY CDFNT ACROSS OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS. BRISK SWLY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND ONLY MODEST CAA... LEANED
TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES WITH LOWS FCST IN L-M40S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
WINTRY CHALLENGES THIS WEEKEND TAKE CENTER STAGE THIS PACKAGE.
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RACE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL
PERSIST AMONG THE ECMWF... SREF...CANADIAN GEM AND GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLES. THE OPERATION RUN OF ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE LOW TRACK BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST DYNAMIC RUN WITH THIS SYSTEM TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DROPPING BELOW 1000 MB. THE ECMWF WAS
ABOUT 9 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...SO TIMING
AND TRACK WAS STILL CLOUDED WITH UNCERTAINTY. THE FASTER GFS DOES
NOT SUPPORT MUCH SNOW...TOO MANY FACTORS WERE HINDERING DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH/DGZ INCLUDING MAX LIFT ABOVE THE DGZ AND RIMING BELOW
THE CLOUD LAYER. ALSO...WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL THWART SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE MUCH HIGHER. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE FIRST INVASION OF ARCTIC AIR THIS SEASON WILL CAUSE
HIGHS TO BE ONLY AROUND FREEZING SUNDAY. A MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT SET
UP SUNDAY....POOR FETCH BUT GREAT DELTA T VALUES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WINDS BACK AND INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
RISING OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS
THE LONGWAVE TROF AMPLIFIES ALONG THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
LOW LEVEL JET 60-75 KTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TROF AXIS. SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAGGING THE MAIN TROF
AXIS AND THIS HAS FAVORED MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND MIXING OF THE
WINDS TO THE NEAR SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY THE DRIER AIRMASS HAS
ESSENTIALLY SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION AND THIS TOO HAS FAVORED
MIXING DOWN OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO THE NEAR SURFACE.
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS CAPPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
BEST FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. STILL NOT FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDER - AND HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION FROM GRIDDED FORECAST AND
TERMINAL FORECASTS.
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE NEARTERM ARE THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LLWS
AND TURBULENCE. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN BOTH TAFS FOR THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL JET AND BOUNDARY LAYER PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAX
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AND AS SECONDARY FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WILL
SEE MARKED WIND SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LEWIS
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1127 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN KS
WITH MOIST CONVEYOR FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THE SURFACE DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IA WITH SECONDARY WEAK LOW OVER NORTHEAST
KS ATTENDANT TO NEAR STACKED SYSTEM. APPROACHING DRY SLOT AND
ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS AIDING NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS
ARCING INTO EASTERN IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN KS WILL OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE NEWD TO
VICINITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYS END IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
INTERACTION/PHASING WILL RESULT IN MORE PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS.
TODAY... ARCING BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT EASTERN IA AND
NORTHWEST IL NEXT 1-2+ HOURS... AND CONTINUE TO BE FOLLOWED BY
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH DRY SLOT. HOWEVER... AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS WRAP BACK AROUND INTO THE
AREA TODAY ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS WITH SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED OVER
NORTHWEST 1/2 TO POSSIBLY 2/3RDS OF CWA. HIGHS FOR THE DAY HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED MOST AREAS AND WILL JUST BE STEADY DROP ON TEMPS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION BEFORE TEMPS LEVEL OFF THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. EXPECT BRISK TO
WINDY CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BY LATER THIS AM THROUGH AFTERNOON
WITH MIXING WITH RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING POTENTIAL TO TICKLE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES WITH ROUGHLY 30-35 KTS SHOWN
THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AND 40-45+ KTS SITTING ATOP THE MIXED
LAYER. JUST HOW DEEP WE MIX WILL BE UNCERTAIN DUE TO CLOUD
COVER/TRENDS ... AND THUS REASON FOR NOT GOING WITH ADVISORY
ATTIM.
TONIGHT... SOME SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHERN CWA TO TAPER OFF BY
LATE EVE WITH INCOMING SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS IN
WAKE OF WEAKENING LOW. STILL BRISK AT TIMES WITH LINGERING
GRADIENT. COLDER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
THURSDAY...TIGHT CYCLONIC LLVL FLOW SOUTH OF NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS
LONG WAVE TROF CENTER WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY THU WITH
SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND GUSTS TO
45 MPH...NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S DESPITE
SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING. IF SFC WINDS CAN DECOUPLE ENOUGH ALONG
WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER PASSING RIDGE LOBE...LOW TEMPS BY EARLY FRI
MORNING TO BE DOWN IN THE 20S ACRS MUCH OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALL EYES TURN TO A POTENTIAL LATE FALL SNOW
SYSTEM THIS PERIOD...AS A WAVE CURRENTLY ACRS THE GULF OF AK DIGS
DOWN IN FRESHLY ESTABLISHED COLD CORE L/W TROF ACRS THE MID CONUS.
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT STILL BEING OFF
SHORE AND NOT REALLY SAMPLED BY LATEST MODEL INPUT DATA YET...MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE PRIME LLVL BAROCLINICITY LAYS OUT GENERALLY
FROM WEST-TO-EAST AND MID/UPPER JET PROPAGATION PATH OCCURS. LATEST
SUITE OF 00Z RUNS INDICATE MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH THIS
HANDLING WITH LARGE VARIANCES FROM EACH OTHER IN TIMING...STRENGTH
AND HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THE LOW GENERATING THE SNOW OCCURS. THE
00Z NAM IS THE FARTHEST TO THE NORTH BUT TRANSITIONS LLVL THERMAL
PARAMETERS COOLER FOR MAINLY SNOW IN A TYPE OF ADVECTION WING MOVING
IN ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING FRI AFTERNOON...CONTINUING WELL INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST. IT/S MAIN DEF ZONE OF SNOW
OCCURS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DVN CWA LATER FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT MORNING. THE 00Z GFS IS THE FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH...MOST PROGRESSIVE
BUT HAS ENOUGH PRE-WAVE WAA FOR RAIN OR A MIX SOUTH OF I80...BUT
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW NORTH OF I80 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUM BY 00Z SAT. IT/S SNOW ALGORITHM THEN PRODUCES A SWATH OF 4-8
INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY SAT MORNING WHEN THE SYSTEM MAKES
IT/S WAY OFF TO THE EAST. JUST A FEW INCHES SOUTH OF I80 BY SAT AM.
THE 00Z ECMWF SURPRISINGLY COMES IN STRONGER/SLOWER WITH DEEPENING
THE LLVL CYCLONE ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA LATER FRI NIGHT AND ROLLS IT
UP ACRS SOUTHERN LK MI BY 18Z SAT. WITH IT/S COLD PROFILES FOR
MAINLY ALL SNOW WITH THE PRECIP EVENT...IT/S SNOW ALGORITHM PRODUCES
4-7+ INCHES WITH IT/S DEF ZONE BY SAT MORNING ACRS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE DVN CWA...BIGGER TOTALS ACRS SOUTHERN WI. STRONG IN-WRAPPING
WINDS OF THE DEEPER ECMWF COULD ALSO MAKE FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING.
FOR NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND THE SYSTEM STILL OFF SHORE...WILL
ADVERTISE A BIT OF A MIX IN THE SOUTH WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
CWA-WIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SOME CONCERN HOW MUCH MOISTURE
DRAW FROM THE SOUTH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AS WELL TO PRODUCE SUCH
BIG SNOW TOTALS...BUT IF TENDS CONTINUE THE CWA WILL LOOK TO BE IN
LINE FOR AT LEAST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SNOW EVENT WITH A CHANCE
FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET IN OR NEAR THE FCST AREA. WITH ANY
KIND OF SNOW COVER...THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR SEEPING DOWN INTO THE
TROF BASE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WOULD MAKE FOR HIGHS SAT ONLY
IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH...TO MID-UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH. WIND
DROP OFF UNDER CLEAR SKIES SAT NIGHT WOULD MAKE FOR SEASONABLY COLD
LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS...AND SOME SNOW COVER OF AT LEAST 2-4
INCHES WOULD MAKE FOR SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH
BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS HAVING TROUBLE RECOVERING MUCH OUT OF THE
MID 30S ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS PERIOD TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH A TEMP
MODERATION INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD POOL SHIFTS EAST ACRS THE GRT
LKS AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS UP THE MS RVR VALLEY UNDER RE-
ESTABLISHING BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACRS THE CONUS. HIGH TEMPS TO
RECOVER BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE
UNDER SUCH A SYNOPTIC REGIME CHANGE. ..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
WINDY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE TAF CYCLE ONCE AGAIN...AS SOUTH
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS SWITCH TO WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITION WILL INCLUDE A SOMEWHAT LESS WINDY OVERNIGHT...BUT NO
LOWER THAN 12 KTS GUSTING TO THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL SWEEP EAST SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
ALL OF IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. BY MID EVENING...THE DRY AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH VFR
WEATHER LASTING FROM MID TO LATE EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
102 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
RAIN SHOWERS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO INCH THEIR WAY INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THIS IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN
WAS ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. AS SUCH...TRIED TO PUSH BACK TIMING OF
PRECIP ONSET BY AN HOUR TO TWO HOURS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASING TREND OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NOW BETWEEN 10 AND
15 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 30KTS.
LOADED IN THE LATEST TEMPS...DEW POINT...AND WIND OBSERVATION INTO
THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO MAKE SURE THE FORECAST REFLECTED THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALL GRIDS HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO THE
WEB/NDFD...THOUGH CHANGES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A
NEW FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO EASTERN KY
THIS AFTERNOON. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS IN
TERMS OF POPS TO SLOW DOWN SLIGHTLY GIVEN SOME OF THE MESO
MODELS...BUT OVERALL TIMING LOOKS ON TRACK. DID SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS TO LINE UP BETTER TO LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
THIS MORNING STRONG CLOSED LOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 00Z ANALYSIS ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOWING A
537MB HEIGHT WHICH IS ACTUALLY MIN FOR THIS DAY BASED ON SOUNDING
CLIMO. THIS JUST SPEAKS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS POTENT
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUT AREA TODAY. THIS
LOW IS PROGGED PHASE WITH BROADER UPPER LOW ACROSS CANADA AND
OVERALL BROAD TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TO MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE RIDGING HOLD ON A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COOLER AIR...THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY LOCKED UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
NOW THE DEEPER SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NNE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WHILE ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT TRACK
EAST. THIS WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER TODAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LETS TALK
WIND FIRST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BECOME EVIDENT THIS
MORNING IN THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW AND STRONG
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH STRONG JET
ENERGY ALOFT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAIN VIEW WINDS AT 850MB
INDICATING 70KT PLUS CORE RUNNING ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING 30 TO 45 MPH GUST OF
BLACK MOUNTAIN THIS MORNING AND WHILE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE
HIGH...AT OR BELOW 1000 FT IN GENERAL...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
HEIGHT TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS. ALL THIS SAID THINK WE ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH OVERALL TIMING OF HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
NOW LETS DISCUSS THE PRECIP FOR THE EVENT WHICH WILL BE THE MOST
WE HAVE SEEN IN AT LEAST A MONTH NOW AND AT LEAST DOUBLE OUR
MONTHLY TOTAL SO FAR FOR NOV. THIS BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS IS MAKING IT INTO FAR WESTERN KY THIS MORNING BASED ON
WSR-88D MOSAIC. AREAS IN FAR WEST ARE SEEING AROUND A INCH OF
PRECIP BASED ON MESONETS SINCE MIDNIGHT CST. NOW LOOKING AT RADAR
AND COMPARING SOME OF THE MESO MODELS THIS MORNING...THE ARW-NMM
SEEMS TO HAVE THE OVERALL BEST HANDLE ON TIMING. THE HRRR IS A BIT
SLOW BASED ON RADAR. THAT SAID OVERALL BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP...NEARER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 300MB JET TO THE WEST...AND PWATS IN THE 1.4
OR HIGHER RANGE WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR BNA BASED ON SOUNDING
CLIMO. GIVEN THIS DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
OF PRECIP...BUT PERHAPS A BIT SLOWER IN PROGRESSING IN OVERALL.
GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR BLEND FOR QPF...WHICH SEEMS TO
MATCH UP WELL OVERALL WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THAT SAID
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY A INCH TO INCH AND A
QUARTER...BUT FAR SE COULD STILL SEE A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING WHICH
MAY HOLD THEM A BIT LOWER BUT NOT BY MUCH.
NOW FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FRONT SHOULD WORK OUT OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING AND GRADIENT/WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS WOULD SUGGEST POSSIBLE STRATUS HANGING
TONIGHT OR PERHAPS FOG. RIGHT NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON LOWER CLOUDS
SINCE IT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN ON EXACTLY WHAT WILL OCCUR...WITH
CLEARING SKIES ARE QUICK BEHIND THIS FRONT DOWN STREAM. WHILE
WINDS WEAKEN WE SHOULD STAY SOME WHAT MIXED...BUT HIGH WILL BEGIN
NUDGING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
A RATHER BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE RETURNING NORTH. RIDGING AT THAT POINT
CENTERED NEAR CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NORTH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. BY FRIDAY THE BROAD TROUGH SHOULD
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
FROM THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS...INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CANADIAN
UPPER LOW AND SHARPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRI
EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THAT POINT...SC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST HEIGHTS ACROSS EAST KY SHOULD
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ON FRI ACROSS EAST KY. HEIGHTS SHOULD AGAIN
FALL AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN REGION FRI NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT INTO SAT EVENING WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR -9C OR -10C ON SAT
NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN NEAR THAT LEVEL INTO SUNDAY.
HEIGHT RISES ARE THEN EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS INTO AT
LEAST EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD
EASTERN KY. HOWEVER...ONE MORE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE LIMITED
THAN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY SO NO MORE THAN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED. HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE AGAIN AT THE END OT
HE PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING. THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO
MODERATE WITH 85O MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE 0C AND MAKING A RUN
TOWARD 5C BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER MILD IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD
OF THE SATURDAY TO SATURDAY EVENING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY
AS WELL. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW ON SAT EVENING WHERE IF THE
MOISTURE LINGERED LONG ENOUGH AS THE COLUMN COOLS FOR A FEW FLAKES
TO MIX IN OR AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO OR A FEW FLURRIES...
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAIN LOW HOWEVER...AS THE 0Z MODEL RUN
GENERALLY HAS THE LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT VERY QUICK...ECMWF...OR
PRESENCE OF ICE IN THE LOW CLOUDS PERHAPS ONLY FROM SEEDER FEEDER
IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR RIGHT AS THE MOISTURE DEPARTS. IF FLAKES DO
IN FACT OCCUR...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR AND BE EVEN COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT. BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST EASTERN VALLEYS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT. PENDING CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...SOME TEENS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GFS
BASED COOP MOS GUIDANCE FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS SUPPORTS TEENS
FOR SUN NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES THERE WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR
MON NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...REACHING THE 40S MONDAY AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO
EASTERN KY...WITH AN ETA AT KSME WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. TRIED TO
TIME OUT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE TAF SITES OF EASTERN
KY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VIS AND CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL AS WE
START SEEING THE RAIN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME FLUCTUATION IN AND OUT OF THIS
CATEGORY IS MOST LIKELY. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CONCERN DURING THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS...PARTICULARLY ALOFT. SW WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KT AT THE SURFACE AND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY GUSTING HIGHER. WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE AS YOU
HEAD HIGHER IN ALTITUDE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY COME TO AN END AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL ALLOW VIS AND CIGS TO INCREASE TO
VFR...AND WINDS TO WANE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. CLEARING
AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEPENDING ON WINDS AND RAINFALL...FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON THIS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-108-111-114-116.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ087-088-104-106-
107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1137 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
Updated for 18Z aviation forecast discussion.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 231 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
Gradient winds ahead of the line were gusting through the 30s mph
on average...with isolated reports of up to 45 mph at times. We
issued an SPS for such gusts/potential to cause minor damage thru
early morning hours as the line works into/across the
Pennyrile/WKY and SWIN.
Tabulated rainfall amounts are on track with 4 to 5 inches across
SEMO (isolated higher amounts)...where rain has all but ended.
Another 1-2" falling this morning as band marches on thru areas
east of MS river will spell storm total amounts in line with
models/forecast... 3 or 4" for remainder of Watch Area with
lesser amounts to 2" across our East. In collab with our
neighbors, we`ll expire FFA across nearly all of SEMO and retain
for areas along/east of MS river where rain still is ongoing.
Tracking of back edge suggests rain will be over for entire Watch
area by 15z, so we`ll make that adjustment as well. All rain
should depart FA by around 18z.
Afterward, High pressure works in and should gradually dry and
cool our atmosphere. We`ll slide back to 50s/30s for the remainder
of the short term forecast period, to finish out the work week.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
A significant pattern change will occur during the long term period.
A strong 500 mb shortwave will dig southeast across the mid and
upper Mississippi Valley on Friday night/Saturday. A second weaker
shortwave may follow a similar path Sunday. In the wake of these
shortwaves, a quasi-zonal flow pattern is expected next week. This
sequence of events is a sharp departure from the high amplitude
western trough/eastern ridge pattern that has been common this month.
As far as the daily details, a strong cold front will sweep
southeast across our region early Saturday. Forcing associated with
the digging 500 mb shortwave may generate scattered showers late
Friday night and Saturday morning. In the wake of the front, rather
strong northwest winds will usher in the coldest air so far this
season. Both the gfs and ecmwf indicate 850 mb temps will hover from
minus 5 to minus 9 Saturday night through Sunday. This will
translate to daytime highs struggling to reach 40 on Sunday. Under a
1030 mb surface high, overnight lows on both Saturday and Sunday
nights will be in the 20s.
Monday through Tuesday, a zonal flow pattern is expected across much
of the country. This will result in a continuation of mainly dry
conditions with slowly moderating temperatures. Highs will
recover to the lower 50s by Tuesday, with lows in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1137 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
The last of the rain showers should move out of the KOWB area
over the next hour. Winds will remain gusty out of the south
southwest up to 25-30kts at times. Winds will die down at sunset
and pick back up again when they shift to the west Thursday
morning. Biggest issue is what to do with the MVFR cigs that are
out to the west. A complete look moisture plots from varying
models suggests that the cigs could periodically dip into the MVFR
range the rest of today but better chances will definitely be
north of the area. Will play it a bit pessimistic and adjust with
satellite trends. A reinforcing cold front will arrive late
tonight into tomorrow morning which may bring another band of
clouds but it does not look too thick at this point.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1233 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1230 PM EST Wed Nov 18 2015
Steady rains continue to fall across much of the area. Some
locations over central KY especially near the TN border have
received just over 2 inches of rainfall. This has caused some minor
flooding issues reported in Logan and Butler counties. Thus, a
Flood Advy was issued for a few hrs until steady rains end there.
Will need to keep an eye on other locations over central KY that see
heavier bursts of rain which may cause more minor flooding issues.
No thunder reported over the region in quite some time so took the
slight chc t-storm mention out of the forecast. Rains should be
ending quickly from west to east late this afternoon into the
evening hrs.
A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 4pm EST. Behind the
steady rainfall, winds are expected to increase just ahead of and
along a frontal boundary advancing eastward. A good mixing zone
exists along a sharp pressure gradient along that boundary and obs
along that boundary are showing those higher gusts with 34 mph
observed at Huntingburg, IN ASOS and even higher gusts to the north
(40-50 mph over central Indiana). Although our gusts shouldn`t be
quite as high as those in central Indiana this afternoon, 35-45 mph
gusts over southern Indiana/central Kentucky look likely as this
boundary pushes through the region this afternoon. Thus the Wind
Advisory will remain in place.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 230 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2015
....Windy Conditions Ahead of the Rains This Morning...
Seeing a steady increase in gradient winds early this morning, as a
strong low-level jet develops and pushes east across the region.
Gusts over our southwest forecast area are around 40 mph. Not too
far into the rain shield, winds are moderating over far western KY.
The main concern this morning is how windy it will get ahead of that
rain shield. Models continue to slow the eastward progress of the
line, now allowing a little more heating over our eastern zones.
That heating will lead to a higher mixing layer, which would allow
more of the stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface. Would
not be surprised to see some 50 mph gusts mix down by mid to late
morning in areas just ahead of the rain shield...mainly east of a
Frankfort to Campbellsville line. The current wind advisory covers
this well.
As for the rains, the line is making steady progress eastward and
see no reason not to go with 100 pops areawide for the daytime
period. Totals should end up around an inch with isolated higher
amounts. Have lingered some rain chances in our east after 00Z, but
expect the region to be rain free by midnight.
Thursday a secondary cold front will sweep through the region,
turning winds from southwesterly tonight to westerly by Thursday
afternoon. The sunshine during the day will allow temperatures to
get up to near normal levels.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2015
Focii this period will be a cold front sweeping through the region
Saturday and then how cold it gets behind that front. We`ll start
off with a chilly morning Friday, but readings in the 30s are near
normal. High pressure will be right over the region, on its way to a
position off the mid Atlantic coast Saturday. A cold front will
sweep in here on the back side of that high. Moisture will be meager
for this front to work with, but the trough aloft and behind this
front should be strong enough to force at least a chance for
measurable precip during the day.
Models have backed off quite a bit in how much precip falls behind
this front Saturday night. The question has been how much of the
cold air pours in here before the precip exits the region. Given
that the timing now is during the day, and the model agreement in
this scenario, decided to remove the chance for light snow we had in
for Saturday night.
Sunday still looks to be the coldest day of the period, as high
pressure moves right over the Ohio Valley. Blended models continue
to come in colder with each run, but decided to go even lower,
closer to the European statistical guidance for highs Sunday, in the
upper 30s for all but south central Kentucky. These readings would
be roughly 20 degrees below normal!
After that day we moderate as the high settles over the Appalachians
and the trough aloft turns more into a zonal pattern.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1230 PM EST Wed Nov 18 2015
Current timing puts the back edge of the precip through BWG between
18-19z, SDF between 21-23z and closer to 00z at LEX. Expect
visibility in the heaviest rain to be 1-3sm. Ceilings will hang
around 2-2.5 kft, occasionally dropping into fuel-alternate or
rising to VFR. Once the rain ends, fast improvement to VFR ceilings
can be expected.
Winds will remain out of the south/southeast, gusting to 20-25 kts
at times, though the steadier rain has tempered that somewhat. Once
the rain ends, plan on a shift to the southwest and winds will pick
back up, especially at SDF/BWG where mixing during the daylight will
help.
Next concern is fog potential overnight as high pressure builds in
along with clearing skies. Combined with the recent rain, could see
fog develop at BWG. If the winds drop down, then expect a higher
chance of fog. For now, will advertise MVFR visbiliity restrictions,
but this may need to be lowered if confidence increases.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......ZBT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
851 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 850 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2015
Updated the grids to adjust hourly POP timing and temps. POPs have
spread a little farther eastward quicker than previously forecast.
Wind gusts up to 40-45 mph have been observed ahead of the precip.
Gusts decline in the steady moderate rainfall, and then they will
pick up again during breaks of rainfall and on the back side where
rains are lighter. Thus, the Wind Advisory still looks good until
4pm at this point. May need to trim counties from west to east
behind the rains if wind gusts are underachieving. Expect high
temps ranging from the mid 60s to around 70 to be reached early this
afternoon with temps falling during the late afternoon/evening hours.
Issued at 515 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2015
Low-level winds reported by area VAD wind profiles as well as AMDAR
soundings are underachieving compared with what RAP fields suggested
the winds just above the surface should be. Still seeing a few gusts
into the 40-50 mph range this hour. So current wind advisory should
still work out. Have tweaked timing of highest pops to line up with
current radar trends and hourly reflectivity guidance. With each
tweak have tried to bump up winds and temperatures through the
morning just ahead (east) of the highest pops. Tweaks do not change
the zones, but have updated the point and click forecast for the web.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 230 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2015
....Windy Conditions Ahead of the Rains This Morning...
Seeing a steady increase in gradient winds early this morning, as a
strong low-level jet develops and pushes east across the region.
Gusts over our southwest forecast area are around 40 mph. Not too
far into the rain shield, winds are moderating over far western KY.
The main concern this morning is how windy it will get ahead of that
rain shield. Models continue to slow the eastward progress of the
line, now allowing a little more heating over our eastern zones.
That heating will lead to a higher mixing layer, which would allow
more of the stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface. Would
not be surprised to see some 50 mph gusts mix down by mid to late
morning in areas just ahead of the rain shield...mainly east of a
Frankfort to Campbellsville line. The current wind advisory covers
this well.
As for the rains, the line is making steady progress eastward and
see no reason not to go with 100 pops areawide for the daytime
period. Totals should end up around an inch with isolated higher
amounts. Have lingered some rain chances in our east after 00Z, but
expect the region to be rain free by midnight.
Thursday a secondary cold front will sweep through the region,
turning winds from southwesterly tonight to westerly by Thursday
afternoon. The sunshine during the day will allow temperatures to
get up to near normal levels.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2015
Focii this period will be a cold front sweeping through the region
Saturday and then how cold it gets behind that front. We`ll start
off with a chilly morning Friday, but readings in the 30s are near
normal. High pressure will be right over the region, on its way to a
position off the mid Atlantic coast Saturday. A cold front will
sweep in here on the back side of that high. Moisture will be meager
for this front to work with, but the trough aloft and behind this
front should be strong enough to force at least a chance for
measurable precip during the day.
Models have backed off quite a bit in how much precip falls behind
this front Saturday night. The question has been how much of the
cold air pours in here before the precip exits the region. Given
that the timing now is during the day, and the model agreement in
this scenario, decided to remove the chance for light snow we had in
for Saturday night.
Sunday still looks to be the coldest day of the period, as high
pressure moves right over the Ohio Valley. Blended models continue
to come in colder with each run, but decided to go even lower,
closer to the European statistical guidance for highs Sunday, in the
upper 30s for all but south central Kentucky. These readings would
be roughly 20 degrees below normal!
After that day we moderate as the high settles over the Appalachians
and the trough aloft turns more into a zonal pattern.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 545 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2015
A strong low pressure system will continue to track northeast across
the middle of the country. With the pressure gradient tightening up,
winds are becoming gusty at all TAF sites this morning. Expect that
all sites will see sustained winds this morning in the 15-20 knot
range with gusts up to 35 knots. Gusts have the potential to be
higher at LEX this morning as precipitation will begin later and the
atmosphere has a chance to mix. However, these higher gusts should
be brief. Have kept the LLWS in for the next few hours, and the LLB
is then expected to lessen somewhat.
Moderate to potentially heavy rain will continue to slowly move
east. It should affect BWG first around 14Z, followed by SDF around
15Z and LEX around 18Z. With the heavier pockets of rain
visibilities may briefly go down to IFR. This rain will move out
this afternoon into the evening hours. Ceilings should then improve
and winds gusts will lessen after sunset.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
301 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT. COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WHIPS
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER IN WAKE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO
HELP SUSTAIN WIND GUSTS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS AND VALLEYS NEARBY...WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET
ENHANCES IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO
SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HI-RES AND RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS
ALSO INDICATES STRONGER...BUT SHALLOW MIXING AS TEMPERATURES RISE
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
RIDGE ZONES AND VALLEYS WITHIN.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE LIGHT
QPF ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD BE DISSOLVING
THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL RELATIVELY TRANQUIL ENVIRONMENT FIGURED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
VIGOROUS 500M MB SHORT WAVE LIFTS QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO
LATE SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION ALSO
RACES NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 925 MB FLOW
AROUND 35 KNOTS...INCREASED WIND GUSTS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR BLOWS IN.
WAS A BIT SLOWER INTRODUCING POPS SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD STILL WHIP THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR LIGHT QPF LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...AND LINGERED LIKELY POPS IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN ZONES
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING CHANCE POPS LONGER ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH
500 MB TROF AXIS...ESPECIALLY N-E-SE OF PIT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER WEEKEND WEATHER UNDER A CROSSING UPR TROUGH IS FORECAST...BUT
ONCE AGAIN...MODERATION AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WRN CONUS LOW. THE
ONLY CAVEAT LOOKS TO BE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE ENCROACHMENT AS PER
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH MAY DELAY THE WARM UP AND SPAWN SOME
SHOWERS...CHCS FOR WHICH WERE LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY AS PER A
GUIDANCE BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROVIDING SOME RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY A LOW STRATUS DECK MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS DECK WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE DURING
THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
323 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW CENTER HAS REACHED NRN MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THRU
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WARM/MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND INTO MICHIGAN. SFC DWPTS ARE
NOW MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA... WITH ALL LOCAL
OBS REPORTING AT LEAST A PERIOD OF RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NEXT WAVE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS MOVING THRU SRN LWR MICHIGAN TOWARD
OUR CWA...TARGETING THE ERN HALF FOR HIGHEST POPS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NAM12...RAP13 AND HRRR ALL SUGGEST
THIS SCENARIO WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS...AND OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN DOWNWARD FOR EXPECTED POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. IN
FACT...ALL OF THE ABOVE MODELS NEARLY DISSIPATE THE AREA OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER WISCONSIN BEFORE IT CAN REACH MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...HOLDING OFF ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF BETTER POPS UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. HAVE DIMINISHED POPS FOR TONIGHT...BUT STILL
TARGET ERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA FOR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN. LOW LEVELS
DO BEGIN TO COOL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR TO RESULT IN MIXED PRECIP AND/OR SNOW WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW. THUS...ALL PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIQUID THRU
THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S.
STRONGEST CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL WINDS HAS REACHED OUR CWA...AND SO
FAR HAVE REMAINED JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE SEEN
NOTHING UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN TO INDICATE ANY FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF WIND SPEEDS...AND WE MAY EVEN SEE A SLIGHT DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SO...AT THIS POINT...NO WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
LOCAL SURFACE OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LINGERING WIND CONCERNS THURSDAY.
ADDRESSING POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT SATURDAY.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...LED IN CHARGE BY OPENING SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE PIVOTING ACROSS WISCONSIN. FAR UPSTREAM PACIFIC FLOW
REGIME A TOUCH MORE "FLATISH" IN APPEARANCE...WITH ROBUST UPPER JET
CORE PUNCHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES. PATTERN SET TO GO
THROUGH SOME CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS...WITH STRONG SECONDARY JET
MAX ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC FORCING AMPLIFYING AND TRANSIENT
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. SUBTLE WAVE DIVING DOWN THE
FRONT SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AMPLIFICATION...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET CORE ALONG RIDGE/TROUGH INTERFACE...COULD
WORK IN TANDEM TO DRUM UP A RATHER SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR AT
LEAST SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...A MUCH MORE NOVEMBER FEEL EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS TROUGHING AND MODIFIED POLAR AIR DOMINATES.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: INITIAL CONCERNS CENTERED ON
WIND GUSTS AND LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ATTENTION DIRECTED TO POSSIBLE WINTER STORM IMPACTS HEADING
INTO AND THROUGH SATURDAY.
DETAILS: MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...DRAGGING MAIN COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT CAA AND REMNANT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO CONTINUE THE GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
WIND DIRECTION WILL TURN DECIDEDLY MORE SOUTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WINDS LOOK TO BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER EASILY SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS A GOOD 10
OR SO MILES PER HOUR STRONGER...WITH GUSTS PUSHING 40 MPH AT TIMES
ALONG THE EXPOSED LAKE MICHIGAN COAST. BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY PASSING COLD FRONT...WITH PRECIP COVERAGE NO DOUBT
AUGMENTED BY INCREASING LAKE PROCESSES. COLD AIR WILL ONLY DEEPENING
WITH TIME...WITH AMPLE AIR/WATER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO CONTINUE
LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS IN FAVORED WSW-SW FLOW AREAS (TIP OF THE
MITT AND STRAITS). DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
CONTINUES TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND SAID WIND DIRECTION
MEANS NO MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION. SOUNDINGS SHOW DOWN LOW INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE...INDICATIVE OF UPSTREAM LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR AND NO LAKE
SUPERIOR PRECONDITIONING. SO...DESPITE MORE THAN FAVORABLE DELTA T/S
IN THE HIGH TEENS...JUST NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION (NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH).
ABOVE TRENDS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SLOWLY VEER WITH TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE
CONTINUES...WITH NO MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION EVER ESTABLISHED.
SO...MOSTLY LIGHT LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE...FOCUSED ACROSS THE TIP
OF THE MITT WHERE ANOTHER INCH OR SO IS EXPECTED BY LATER FRIDAY.
MUCH...MUCH COLDER BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S/AROUND
40 ABOUT ON PAR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ATTENTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DIRECTED AT THAT POTENTIAL SNOW
PRODUCING SYSTEM TALKED ABOUT IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH. WOULD LOVE
TO OFFER MORE CONCRETE ANSWERS...BUT THERE IS SIMPLY TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO GO WITH MUCH SPECIFICS JUST YET. UPPER JET CORE AND
SUBTLE WAVE WILL NOT BE FULLY SAMPLED UNTIL TOMORROW...AND EVEN THEN
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUIDANCE FLUCTUATIONS GIVEN COMPLEXITY
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND THEIR INTERACTION. AS OF
NOW...FULL RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES REMAIN VIABLE...FROM A MUCH
FLATTER AND WEAKER SOLUTION REMAINING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...TO A MORE
FULLY ORGANIZED AND DEEP LAYER STORM BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS TO MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...REALITY WILL PROBABLY LIE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THIS TWO EXTREMES...WHICH WOULD STILL LIKELY DRIVE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AT LEAST PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. NO
DOUBT SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED...WITH THE MORE
WRAPPED UP SCENARIO (E.G. 00Z ECMWF) SHOWING EXCELLENT LIFT IN THE
DGZ...ENHANCED BANDING POTENTIAL VIA FGEN RESPONSE...AND HINTS OF
SOME REDUCED STABILITY ALOFT. WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP THIS STORM
POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS AND THROUGH OUR
WEB GRAPHICS. DEFINITELY WORTH MONITORING IN THE COMING DAYS FOR
SURE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
DEPENDING ON HOW SATURDAY`S SYSTEM EVOLVES...COULD STILL BE DEALING
WITH AT LEAST LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW DEPARTS QUICKLY OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
WNW BY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE ROUGHLY -13C
ACROSS NRN MI AND DELTA TS ~22C...WOULD EXPECT LES TO KICK IN AND
BRIEFLY TARGET AREAS WEST OF THE 131 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE TRAVERSE
CITY AND CADILLAC AREAS ALONG WITH NRN CHIPPEWA COUNTY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO MORE WNW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND
NRN CHIPPEWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY EVENING...LLEVEL WINDS
SHIFT WESTERLY...THEN WSW SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN WARMING H8 TEMPS
AND AN EVENTUAL SHUT OFF TO THE MAJORITY OF LAKE INDUCED SNOW.
HINTS ARE THERE MONDAY THAT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MAY SLIDE THROUGH
RATHER ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TIED TO AN ASSOCIATED NRN JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...PERHAPS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. GLOBAL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO LARGELY DIVERGE BY
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL SOLUTIONS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WARM UP
LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO PERHAPS THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS PUSHES EAST OF MICHIGAN WITH
THE INITIAL FRONT. THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS NW
AND N CENTRAL LWR MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ARRIVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. PRECIP WILL BECOME
LAKE ENHANCED...WITH SNOW EVENTUALLY MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING AS CAA STRENGTHENS. HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
WILL REMAIN ACROSS NW LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IN SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
TO 25 TO 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LLWS WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS WINDS SUBSIDE JUST A
BIT...BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN LATER THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONG
CAA COMMENCES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW AND COLD FRONT.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR/HIGH MVFR THRU THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD DESPITE ALL OF THE RAIN AND WIND.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL
NEARSHORE AREAS THRU TONIGHT (AT LEAST) AND AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NE INTO S CENTRAL CANADA...PRODUCING A TIGHT LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. WAVES OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR AREA THRU
TONIGHT...BECOMING MIX WITH SNOW ON THURSDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ346>349.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LHZ345.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ322.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
942 AM MST WED NOV 18 2015
.UPDATE...
NO LARGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM CANCELLING THE HIGH
WIND WARNING OUT NEAR LIVINGSTON...THE PARADISE VALLEY...THE
BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS...AND ALONG HIGHWAY 191 FROM BIG TIMBER TO
JUDITH GAP.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ENTIRELY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 9
AM AND IN ITS WAKE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE FILTERED INTO
THE FORECAST REGION. PRESSURE RISES HAVE LESSENED THE GRADIENT
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR LIVINGSTON SO GAP
FLOW CONDITIONS HAVE SUBISDED. HOWEVER ELEVATED WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THERE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST STRONG WINDS ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE AS
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THIS SHORTWAVE AXIS HELPS
SOME STRONGER WINDS MOVE TO THE NEAR SURFACE LAYERS. BELEIVE THE
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY OCCURED IN OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT HIGH WIND CRITERIA GUSTS OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS....ESPECIALLY IN OUR 4 EASTERN COUNTIES. DOBBS
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHERE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS. THE MODELS WERE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE GFS HANDLING WINDS ALOFT
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE WRF.
A STRONG 140+ KT JET HAS PUSHED INTO THE PACIFIC NW ALONG WITH A
POWERFUL SHORTWAVE. EARLIER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING AN
AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE OVER WA...BUT THIS AREA
HAS DISSIPATED IN MORE RECENT IMAGES. THERE WAS A STRONG AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE ON WATER VAPOR IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER MT
WHERE KLVM AND NYE MET HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT WITH A 24 MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN KLWT AND KIDA. THE
SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT HAD JUST MOVED THROUGH KTFX AT 09Z. BEHIND THE
FRONT...PRESSURE RISES WERE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 MB/HR...WHICH WAS
VERY STRONG.
MODELS BRING THE JET SE OVER THE AREA TODAY WHILE WEAKENING. THE
JET WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
SHORTWAVE WAS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 11Z AND
18Z. THE HRRR SHOWED THE COLD FRONT WAS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA FROM 10Z TO 14Z...PASSING THROUGH KBIL AROUND
12Z. A FAST-MOVING BAND OF RAIN/SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. HAVE ADJUSTED THE WIND
DIRECTION THIS MORNING TO MAKE IT MORE-POST FRONTAL...AND ADJUSTED
THE POPS. THE RAP AND HRRR SHOWED THE PRESSURE RISES INCREASING TO
5 TO 7 MB/HR OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS HAD PRESSURE RISES OVER A MB/HR AT 18Z THEN
DECREASED THEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
MAY HELP OFFSET THE STRONG PRESSURE RISES AROUND 12Z...BEFORE
STRONG DIVERGENCE MOVES IN BY 18Z.
SO THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE HOW THE MORNING LIFT COMPETES WITH PRESSURE RISES AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES. REGARDLESS...THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THIS
MORNING. MODELS DECREASED THE WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WINDY. SOME HIGH WIND WARNINGS
MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE E...WHERE
MODEL SOUNDINGS DID NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS TONIGHT.
KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WHEN
PACIFIC MOISTURE RESURGES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LEFT BEHIND FROM THE DYNAMIC WAVE OF TODAY.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE MOUNTAINS FOR LIKELY SNOW. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENT WITH THIS WAVE...AND DRAMATICALLY SO IN
REGARDS TO QPF. THE ECMWF WAS FARTHER WEST AND STRONGER WITH THE
ENERGY AND THEREFORE HAS QUITE A BIT MORE QPF BEING PRODUCED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS WAS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER
EAST WITH THE WAVE AND DRIER DUE TO MUCH LESS UPSLOPE. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. HARD TO IGNORE THE CONSISTENCY
OF THE ECMWF AND HAVE RAISED POPS BACK UP INTO THE SCATTERED
CATEGORY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
SNOWFALL WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...THERE
COULD BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY TYPE OF SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST. DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO GO TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PICK UP ACCUMULATING
SNOW WITH AMOUNTS AROUND 3-6 INCHES. TWH
WILL LEAVE IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE THURSDAY NIGHT
WAVE EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. FRIDAY SHOULD BE CHILLY WITH A
1030MB HIGH SHIFTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DISAGREE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE SET TO MOVE DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF WAS STRONGER...BUT DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...BOTH MODELS
ARE DRY. WILL LEAVE THE DRY FORECAST IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH TRIES TO DEEPEN
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES. PUSHED THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEST...MAINLY
THE HIGH COUNTRY...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT EVERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
FROM BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN EAST. WINDS GUST 60+ KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AROUND SHERIDAN. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
EAST OF BILLINGS AND COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS TO IFR BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING. REIMER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043 025/039 021/033 018/038 027/048 028/044 027/043
3/W 11/E 43/J 10/B 00/N 11/B 11/B
LVM 038 027/035 020/032 019/039 026/043 028/044 028/043
3/J 13/J 53/J 10/N 01/N 12/W 22/W
HDN 044 022/039 020/033 015/039 021/049 024/046 023/045
3/W 11/E 44/J 10/B 00/U 11/B 10/B
MLS 042 020/037 016/033 014/038 017/048 022/045 022/042
4/W 01/B 23/J 10/B 00/B 00/B 00/B
4BQ 042 020/037 017/032 012/038 017/049 022/048 022/048
4/W 11/B 33/J 10/U 00/U 00/B 00/B
BHK 041 017/033 013/030 012/034 016/045 022/044 021/041
3/W 00/N 22/J 20/B 00/B 10/B 00/B
SHR 042 020/038 019/032 011/038 015/050 019/045 021/047
3/W 11/B 34/J 10/U 00/U 11/U 00/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ZONES 29-30-34-35-38-39-42-57.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 31-32-36-58.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR ZONES
33-37.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ZONES 98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
237 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT...MAINLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MAINLY UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.
OTHER THAN THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THERE ISN`T MUCH GOING ON
THIS MORNING WEATHER WISE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE COMBINED WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TEMPS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY A
BIT MORE THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO I TWEAKS UP TEMPS IN THE
VALLEY A BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS
STILL YET TO REACH PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM SO I SLOWED DOWN
HOW QUICKLY WE WARM UP THERE. ADDITIONALLY THERE`S A STRONG
INVERSION ALOFT SO I UPDATED THE MOUNTAIN SUMMIT TEMPS ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
SLK AND WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN IS 11 DEGREES. ULTIMATELY THIS HAD
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PICTURE AND WAS MORE COSMETIC
THAN PHYSICAL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 634 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC-850MB RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BRINGING A CHILLY
MORNING TO VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT ALREADY SEEING STRONG WARMING
ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +6C AT BTV AND +9C ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY NY PER 10Z RUC ANALYSIS. EVIDENCE OF THIS IN THE
SFC OBSERVATIONS WITH 11Z READINGS OF 12F AT SLK...BUT 37F ATOP
WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN WITH 35KT SWLY WINDS. ALSO - AFTER A LOW OF
25F AROUND MIDNIGHT - BTV HAS CLIMBED TO 37F AT 11Z AIDED BY
VALLEY CHANNELED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-12KTS. 2-M TEMPS WILL CLIMB
RELATIVELY QUICKLY AREAWIDE AFTER SUNRISE AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
INCREASES ON WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND AS RADIATIONAL
INVERSIONS BREAK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS REACH 10-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELED
FLOW. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-UPR CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW MOVING 500MB TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. DESPITE A BIT OF FILTERED
SUN...W/ 925MB TEMPS MODERATING TO AROUND +6C THIS AFTERNOON AND
GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACHING 5 TO 8 DEG WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. WARMEST READINGS LIKELY IN WRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY NY; LOCALLY IN THE MID 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED SLY
GRADIENT FLOW KEEPING SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 925MB WINDS REACH 55KTS BY 08Z ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SO WILL BE QUITE WINDY ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS.
MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...BUT RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS BELOW THE
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD KEEP GUSTS FROM REACHING MUCH HIGHER.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S WEST OF THE GREEN
MTNS...AND LOCALLY UPR 30S EAST OF THE GREENS. WILL SEE A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH POSSIBLE STRATUS LAYER
SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS
WELL. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PRE-
DAWN SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THIS PERIOD WILL BE A TRANSITION
FROM STRONG RIDGE TO DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT AND DIGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. INITIAL 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND
PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0". EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z...AND INTO EASTERN VT BY
SUNSET. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/EASTERN VT AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MIXING OF LOW LEVEL
JET TO THE SURFACE ON THURSDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF WITNESS A FEW
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH ACROSS THE ALIGNED SOUTH TO NORTH
VALLEYS AND OVER THE EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE STRONG
850MB TO 925MB WIND FIELD EXPECT SOME TERRAIN DRIVEN EFFECTS TO
THE QPF ACROSS OUR REGION. HIGHEST QPF VALUES OF AN INCH WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT AND PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS WITH A 0.25 TO 0.75 IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE...CHAMPLAIN..AND PARTS OF THE CT RIVER VALLEYS. PROGGED
850MB TEMPS PEAK BETWEEN 6-8C AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY...BUT
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL LIMIT MIXING. THINKING HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S MTNS TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. IF SOME
SUN DEVELOPS AHEAD OF RAIN ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
TEMPERATURES COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE LOWER 60S WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY OUR FORECAST AREA IS UNDER MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS SHORT WAVE RACES TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE. DEEP DRY SLOT
WITH PWS FALLING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR CWA BY
18Z...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.
ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WHICH COULD END AS A FEW
WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ON
FRIDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EST WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. IF MORE CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT THAN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES COULD BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. NEXT POTENT SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
IMPACT OUR CWA ON SUNDAY. AS WE THOUGHT YESTERDAY...THE SURFACE
LOW PRES TRACK AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION IS TRACKING
TO OUR NORTH AND REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE IN THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE
BACKSIDE AND RESULT IN MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTREMELY STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE
SYSTEM AND TIMING OF SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THINKING A FEW HEAVIER CONVECTION RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BURST OF A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. BY 00Z MONDAY PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO -8C WITH 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -2C AND -4C...WHICH
WILL RESULT SNOW LEVELS NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
BY 06Z MONDAY WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. EARLY INDICATIONS
WOULD BE FOR SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 2000
FEET WITH 4 OR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SUMMIT BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S MOUNTAIN
TOWNS TO LOWER 40S WARMER VALLEYS. EXPECT MID WINTER CONDITIONS ON
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS ON SUNDAY WITH BLUSTERY WINDS AND AREAS OF SNOW
SHOWERS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH 00Z THU...THEN POTENTIAL MVFR
STRATUS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES ARE GIVING WAY TO THIN HIGH CLOUDS FROM
20-25KFT AGL, WHICH WILL TEND TO THICKEN THIS EVENING. WINDS SOUTH
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS EXPECTED AT BTV TONIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AT
MSS/SLK DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS THURSDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET
TONIGHT BRINGS PROSPECTS FOR LLWS...BEGINNING AT SLK AT 19/00Z
CENTERED AROUND 2KFT...AND AT MPV BY 06Z. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INCREASES AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREVAILING
SHOWERS YET. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM OHIO VALLEY. GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT BTV WITH CHANNELED VALLEY FLOW.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL. TRENDING BACK TO VFR FOR FRI/SAT. SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MAY HAVE SOME MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS. THEN VFR RETURNS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 15-25 KNOTS AND WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW TO 20-30 KNOTS BEFORE WEAKENING TOMORROW
EVENING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 650 PM EST MONDAY...FOR YOUR INFORMATION...THE AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE MORRISVILLE-STOWE STATE
AIRPORT (KMVL) IN MORRISVILLE VERMONT WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE FOR A
FEW DAYS THIS WEEK...AS IT IS BEING PHYSICALLY RELOCATED TO
ANOTHER LOCATION ON THE AIRPORT GROUNDS. THUS...ONLY THE ALTIMETER
SETTING WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE. THERE WILL BE NO
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...SURFACE WIND...PRESENT WEATHER AND
CEILING BEING REPORTED UNTIL AFTER THE ASOS HAS BEEN RELOCATED.
FOR AVIATION INTERESTS...THE FAA ALREADY HAS A NOTAM OUT ABOUT THE
ASOS OUTAGE AT KMVL.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/NEILES
MARINE...VERASAMY
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1238 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT...MAINLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MAINLY UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.
OTHER THAN THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THERE ISN`T MUCH GOING ON
THIS MORNING WEATHER WISE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE COMBINED WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TEMPS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY A
BIT MORE THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO I TWEAKS UP TEMPS IN THE
VALLEY A BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS
STILL YET TO REACH PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM SO I SLOWED DOWN
HOW QUICKLY WE WARM UP THERE. ADDITIONALLY THERE`S A STRONG
INVERSION ALOFT SO I UPDATED THE MOUNTAIN SUMMIT TEMPS ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
SLK AND WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN IS 11 DEGREES. ULTIMATELY THIS HAD
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PICTURE AND WAS MORE COSMETIC
THAN PHYSICAL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 634 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC-850MB RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BRINGING A CHILLY
MORNING TO VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT ALREADY SEEING STRONG WARMING
ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +6C AT BTV AND +9C ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY NY PER 10Z RUC ANALYSIS. EVIDENCE OF THIS IN THE
SFC OBSERVATIONS WITH 11Z READINGS OF 12F AT SLK...BUT 37F ATOP
WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN WITH 35KT SWLY WINDS. ALSO - AFTER A LOW OF
25F AROUND MIDNIGHT - BTV HAS CLIMBED TO 37F AT 11Z AIDED BY
VALLEY CHANNELED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-12KTS. 2-M TEMPS WILL CLIMB
RELATIVELY QUICKLY AREAWIDE AFTER SUNRISE AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
INCREASES ON WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND AS RADIATIONAL
INVERSIONS BREAK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS REACH 10-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELED
FLOW. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-UPR CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW MOVING 500MB TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. DESPITE A BIT OF FILTERED
SUN...W/ 925MB TEMPS MODERATING TO AROUND +6C THIS AFTERNOON AND
GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACHING 5 TO 8 DEG WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. WARMEST READINGS LIKELY IN WRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY NY; LOCALLY IN THE MID 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED SLY
GRADIENT FLOW KEEPING SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 925MB WINDS REACH 55KTS BY 08Z ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SO WILL BE QUITE WINDY ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS.
MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...BUT RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS BELOW THE
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD KEEP GUSTS FROM REACHING MUCH HIGHER.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S WEST OF THE GREEN
MTNS...AND LOCALLY UPR 30S EAST OF THE GREENS. WILL SEE A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH POSSIBLE STRATUS LAYER
SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS
WELL. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PRE-
DAWN SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THIS PERIOD WILL BE A TRANSITION
FROM STRONG RIDGE TO DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT AND DIGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. INITIAL 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND
PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0". EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z...AND INTO EASTERN VT BY
SUNSET. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/EASTERN VT AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MIXING OF LOW LEVEL
JET TO THE SURFACE ON THURSDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF WITNESS A FEW
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH ACROSS THE ALIGNED SOUTH TO NORTH
VALLEYS AND OVER THE EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE STRONG
850MB TO 925MB WIND FIELD EXPECT SOME TERRAIN DRIVEN EFFECTS TO
THE QPF ACROSS OUR REGION. HIGHEST QPF VALUES OF AN INCH WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT AND PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS WITH A 0.25 TO 0.75 IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE...CHAMPLAIN..AND PARTS OF THE CT RIVER VALLEYS. PROGGED
850MB TEMPS PEAK BETWEEN 6-8C AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY...BUT
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL LIMIT MIXING. THINKING HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S MTNS TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. IF SOME
SUN DEVELOPS AHEAD OF RAIN ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
TEMPERATURES COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE LOWER 60S WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY OUR FORECAST AREA IS UNDER MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS SHORT WAVE RACES TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE. DEEP DRY SLOT
WITH PWS FALLING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR CWA BY
18Z...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.
ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WHICH COULD END AS A FEW
WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ON
FRIDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EST WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. IF MORE CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT THAN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES COULD BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. NEXT POTENT SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
IMPACT OUR CWA ON SUNDAY. AS WE THOUGHT YESTERDAY...THE SURFACE
LOW PRES TRACK AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION IS TRACKING
TO OUR NORTH AND REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE IN THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE
BACKSIDE AND RESULT IN MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTREMELY STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE
SYSTEM AND TIMING OF SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THINKING A FEW HEAVIER CONVECTION RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BURST OF A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. BY 00Z MONDAY PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO -8C WITH 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -2C AND -4C...WHICH
WILL RESULT SNOW LEVELS NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
BY 06Z MONDAY WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. EARLY INDICATIONS
WOULD BE FOR SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 2000
FEET WITH 4 OR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SUMMIT BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S MOUNTAIN
TOWNS TO LOWER 40S WARMER VALLEYS. EXPECT MID WINTER CONDITIONS ON
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS ON SUNDAY WITH BLUSTERY WINDS AND AREAS OF SNOW
SHOWERS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH 00Z THU...THEN POTENTIAL MVFR
STRATUS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES ARE GIVING WAY TO THIN HIGH CLOUDS FROM
20-25KFT AGL, WHICH WILL TEND TO THICKEN THIS EVENING. WINDS SOUTH
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL GUSTS TO 30
KTS EXPECTED AT BTV TONIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AT
MSS/SLK DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS THURSDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
JET TONIGHT BRINGS PROSPECTS FOR LLWS...BEGINNING AT SLK AT 19/00Z
CENTERED AROUND 2KFT...AND AT MPV BY 06Z. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INCREASES AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREVAILING
SHOWERS YET. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM OHIO VALLEY. GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT BTV WITH CHANNELED VALLEY FLOW.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL. TRENDING BACK TO VFR FOR FRI/SAT. SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MAY HAVE SOME MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS. THEN VFR RETURNS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO BE 15-25 KNOTS
TO TOADY AND INCREASING TOMORROW TO 20-30 KNOTS BEFORE WEAKENING
TOMORROW EVENING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 650 PM EST MONDAY...FOR YOUR INFORMATION...THE AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE MORRISVILLE-STOWE STATE
AIRPORT (KMVL) IN MORRISVILLE VERMONT WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE FOR A
FEW DAYS THIS WEEK...AS IT IS BEING PHYSICALLY RELOCATED TO
ANOTHER LOCATION ON THE AIRPORT GROUNDS. THUS...ONLY THE ALTIMETER
SETTING WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE. THERE WILL BE NO
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...SURFACE WIND...PRESENT WEATHER AND
CEILING BEING REPORTED UNTIL AFTER THE ASOS HAS BEEN RELOCATED.
FOR AVIATION INTERESTS...THE FAA ALREADY HAS A NOTAM OUT ABOUT THE
ASOS OUTAGE AT KMVL.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/NEILES
MARINE...VERASAMY
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015
BACK EDGE OF RAIN OVER WESTERN MN BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST WHILE
SKINNY BAND OF -RA OVER THE FAR WESTERN FA SLOWLY SPREADING EAST.
MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS BUT OVERALL NOT SIGNIFICANT.
TEMPERATURES JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BUMP UP CLOSE TO AND ABOVE
40 SO MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES GET
BEFORE BECOMING OVER RUN BY COLD FRONT. OVERALL MADE MINIMAL
CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WITH UNCERTAINTY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
RAIN BAND SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN MN LINING UP WELL WITH CURRENT
POPS. WEAKENING BAND PUSHING INTO THE FAR NW FA ASSOCIATED WITH
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND NOT LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SUBFREEZING HOWEVER GUIDANCE WARMS ROAD SURFACES
ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SPIT
HOWEVER NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS. DID LOWER POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS THROUGH NOON. NO OTHER CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
BAND OF PRECIP IN CNTRL ND ATTM MINOT TO BISMARCK MOVING EAST. CAM
MODELS INSIST IT WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES EAST...BUT UNSURE SO
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP AS IT MOVES EAST. MORE TRACE EVENT STUFF.
ISSUE IS TEMPS AS CLOUDS WILL COME IN WITH THE PRECIP AND WARM UP
ENOUGH TO BE MOSTLY LIQUID BUT ISSUE IS NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS PRECIP
ARRIVES INTO FAR NW FCST AREA AND MAY DO SO IN TIME BEFORE TEMPS
RISE. WILL MENTION FZRA/RA IN FAR NW FCST AREA FOR THIS AT 15Z
THEN JUST -RA 16Z ONWARD. WILL NEED TO WATCH. O/W NO CHANGES.
VARIOUS 06Z MODEL DATA SUPPORTS PREV WIND IDEAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT OVERALL...BUT DETAILS ON WIND AND
SNOW ARE TOUGH. FIRST OFF...AREA OF RAIN ASSOC WITH MAIN UPPER LOW
IN KANSAS LIFTING NORTHEAST IS A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER
PROGGED. THUS DID PUSH THE HIGH POPS A BIT EAST AND EAST OF THE
RRV. CLOUD-CLEAR LINE FROM LAST EVENING HOLDING AS EXPECTED
HALLOCK-GRAND FORKS-FORMAN ND. SOME FOG NOTICED ESP EAST OF THE
RRV ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE LOW CLOUDS WITH SEVERAL SITES FROM
ROSEAU TO FOSSTON TO DTL DOWN 1/2 MILE OR LESS. ADDED AREAS OF FOG
THIS AREA THRU THE MORNING.
FOR THE DAY...THE RAIN WILL SPREAD UP THRU THE ERN FCST
AREA...WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST. CLEAR AREA OVER WRN
FCST AREA WHERE TEMPS DROPPED INTO THE LOW 20S WILL WARM UP AS
THERE IS A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND AHD OF THE FRONT AND COOLER
AIR. HRRR INDICATES A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ENTERING DVL REGION EARLY AFTN AND INTO RRV LATE AFTN. RE-WORKED
SOME POPS FOR THIS. MORE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THIS. RADAR OUT WEST
SHOWS PCPN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED AND THUS HAVE ONLY LOW POPS
FOR ANY AFTN PRECIP IN ERN ND.
ISSUE IS WIND. IT DOES APPEAR THAT JUST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW
HOURS THERE IS ENOUGH PRESSURE RISE, 850 MB COLD ADVECTION AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE TO BRING SOME OF THE 850 MB WINDS
(55-60 KT) TO THE SFC IN CNTRL ND AND WRN FCST AREA VERY LATE
AFTN-EVE. AS THESE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT FEEL FULL MIXING WILL NOT BE REALIZED AS MAIN CORE
OF PRESSURE RISES CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. REALLY TOUGH TO GET
WARNING CRITERIA WINDS AT NIGHT INTO THE RRV...AND FELT CHANCES
FOR THAT ARE QUITE LOW. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM A MUCH BETTER
BET. FELT TOO THAT PERIOD OF WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN FAR WRN
FCST AREA IS LIMITED AS WELL TO LATE AFTN-EVE AND THEN MORE
ADVISORY LEVELS AS FULL MIXING NOT REALIZED AS MUCH AS GFS
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISE COUPLET THAN WHAT I SEE FOR A
LONGER PD OF WARNING CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS. THIS IDEA GENERALLY
FOLLOWS LAV MOS GUIDANCE WELL WITH WIND GUSTS 45-49 KTS IN DVL
00Z-04Z PERIOD....THEN A BIT LOWER MORE LIKE 40-45 KT AFTER THAT.
INTO THE RRV AND GFK/FAR LAV MOS WINDS MORE SO 35-40 KT WIND
GUSTS. THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY.
DID NOT EXTEND ADVISORY FARTHER EAST INTO ERN HALF OF FCST
YET BASED ON COORDINATION. BUT SOME COUNTIES FROM THIEF RIVER TO
FERGUS FALLS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY AS THAT IS WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS THERE WILL OCCUR.
AS FOR WRAPAROUND PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW. PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING ABOUT A 12 HR PD OF SNOW 06Z-18Z THU IN NORTHEASTERN FCST
AREA. WPC SNOWFALL FCST SHOWS FAR NORTHEAST IN 3-4 INCH AREA ISOLD
5 MAYBE FLAG ISLAND/ANGLE INLET AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. MOST OF
THIS IS NOT TIL WELL PAST 00Z AND MORE SO 06Z AND AFTER AND THUS
ENOUGH TIME TO MONITOR FURTHER FOR ANY WINTER WX ADVISORY
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA OTHERWISE SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA AND SPREAD EAST AS UPPER
LOW DEPARTS SLOWLY THRU NRN ONTARIO THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THE TROF SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THICKNESS
VALUES INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
RETURNS...AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS POINT TOWARD A WARMING TREND FOR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LITTLE PCPN IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015
DIFFICULT SET OF TAFS WITH FG/BR AND LOW CIGS AND TIMING
OF WINDS THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WNW WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG OVERNIGHT WITH 30 TO 40 KT GUSTS. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW AT BJI WITH SOME WRAPAROUND SNOW WORKING INTO THE GFK AND TVF
TERMINALS BY MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-049-052-053.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
MNZ001>004-007-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
358 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND TRACK TOWARD THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TRACKING THE RAIN BAND CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE BAND INTENSITY HAS HELD FAIRLY STEADY TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSED SLOWLY EAST. ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS HAVE REMAINED FAIR
CONSTANT WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE RADAR MOSAIC. A THIN LINE OF
MORE INTENSE RADAR ECHOES OVER INDIANA ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT MAINLY NORTH WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING ALONG
THE OCCLUDED FRONT. EXPECT A CONTINUED PROGRESSION TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING OF THE RAIN BAND AND HAVE USED THE HRRR WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. SURFACE WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED SO WILL CANCEL THE WIND
ADVISORY AND DOWNGRADE THE HIGH WIND WARNING NEAR ERI TO A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD WITH A COOLING
TREND AND THEN THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER VERY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING IN NORTHWEST PA OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AS COOLER MORE SEASONABLE AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK
ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF WITH NEARLY THE SAME TRACK. THE GFS IS COOLER WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OR PERHAPS JUST WET SNOW
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO GIVEN ITS LOW THICKNESS BELOW 1300M AND 850
MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -5C. THE ECMWF IS WARMER SO EXPECT
SOME MORNING SNOW OR MIX WHICH COULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TOWARD
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. FARTHER EAST THERE WILL MORE WARM
ADVECTION AND MOSTLY TO ALL RAIN EAST OF I-71 SATURDAY. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT COLD AIR
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AND CHANGE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. IN THE SNOWBELT EAST OF CLE LAKE
ENHANCE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MAINLY EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP COULD OCCUR SUNDAY
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. DRIER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY CUT THE PRECIP OFF. THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK
KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE HIGH OVERHEAD A WHILE LONGER AND
WILL GO ALONG WITH IT`S DRY SCENARIO. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE REACHED THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA. THE ONE
OVER KTOL SHOULD BE GONE IN A FEW MINUTES. THE MAIN SHOW WILL
BEGIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO REACH
KCLE AND KMFD TILL AFTER DARK. SOME CONFLICT IN THE GUIDANCE ABOUT
LOWER CLOUDS. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MENTION FOR THE EVENING HOURS
MOST AREAS. THE NORTHERN SITES WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE
LOWER CLOUDS. ONCE THE PRECIP BEGINS IT WILL LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS
MOST AREAS. WINDS ARE ABOUT AS STRONG AS THEY WILL GET EXCEPT AT
KERI WHERE SOME INCREASE IS LIKELY TOWARD EVENING. BY 22Z PEAK
WINDS EXCEPT AT KERI WILL BE NO MORE THAN 32 TO 35 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES ALTHOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO DROP
THE GALE WARNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME UP A LITTLE SO WILL
GIVE IT A FEW MORE HOURS. WINDS ACTUALLY MAY BE STRONGER ON
THURSDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN SOUTH LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME WEST AND
DIMINISH AS THIS OCCURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH POSSIBLE WESTERLY GALES
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. LATER CREWS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ061-149-169.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ147-148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1152 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BREEZY W-SW SURFACE WINDS WILL RELAX QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...THEN TURN TO THE NORTH AROUND 05-06 UTC AS A MODEST
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015/
AVIATION...
DRY VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TROUGH GRADUALLY
DEEPENING TODAY LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. SEVERAL CHANGE GROUPS FOR
TAFS RELATED TO WIND CHANGES. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS WERE UNWINDING THIS MORNING JUST BEHIND
THE UPPER LOW SPINNING THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
OPEN WHILE LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING WILL DOMINATE. LATER TODAY...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL CURL
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SLIGHTLY
BACKED FLOW LEADING TO SURFACE TROUGHING. RESULT WILL BE MODESTLY
BREEZY WEST WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. SOLUTIONS
FAVOR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR BEST OF THESE LOW-END BREEZES...SUSTAINED
15 TO 20 KNOTS OR SO. STARTING OUT FAIRLY COOL THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH THE ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE FLOW TEMPERATURES BY LATER TODAY SHOULD
END UP NEAR OR NOTCH ABOVE MID-NOVEMBER NORMALS. ALSO GAVE LEAN
TOWARD RECENT RAP DEWPOINT SOLUTIONS SHOWING MORE SURFACE DRYING
SOUTHERN AREAS...MAKES SENSE THIS PATTERN.
BY THIS EVENING THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
LOOSENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND STILL SOMEWHAT MILD
TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT FLUNG SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SYSTEM...WILL EDGE THROUGH THE AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS ALSO ON THE LOW END OF BREEZY BEHIND THIS WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF FRONTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION COURTESY OF A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS LOWER CANADA INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A SUBTLE SHOT OF
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS INITIAL SYSTEM WILL KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S FOR THE MOST PART THURSDAY BEFORE RENEWED
SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE FRONT RANGE VEERS WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY FOR
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S BEFORE A
MUCH STRONGER FRONT ENTERS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A 1035 MB
SURFACE RIDGE WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS TO ON THE ORDER OF
20-25 MPH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
FALL SEASON WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 40S.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT IN
VICINITY OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...PERHAPS VEERING
WINDS SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SOME POSSIBLE WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MODIFIED-ARCTIC AIRMASS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A HARD FREEZE WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 20S
ON MUCH OF THE CAPROCK WHILE LOCALES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS REMAIN
IN THE MID-UPPER 20S SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL THEN KEEP AN EYE ON YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PROPAGATING THROUGH
THE LONG-LIVED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME BEFORE BACKING FLOW ALOFT
TAKES PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK DOWNSTREAM OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST. SUBTROPICAL JET POSSIBLY COUPLED WITH THE POLAR JET
BY MID WEEK WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ATTEMPTING TO ENHANCE MID-UPPER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...TIMING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND
FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAYS FRONT WILL BE THE DRIVER AS TO WHEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAKE A HOLD LOCALLY. SOME INDICATIONS OF
ENOUGH OF THIS BY TUESDAY...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT TO
INTRODUCE POPS GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE EARLY WEEKEND FRONT. THESE
CHANCES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE WESTERN CONUS SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. NONETHELESS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 60S DURING THE WEEK WITH LOWS
IN THE 30S/40S.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33