Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/17/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT MAINLY
FROM TUCSON EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY...WITH VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SOUTHWEST OF THE TUCSON METRO
AREA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE ALSO DETECTED FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NWRN
SONORA MEXICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SHOWERS THAT OCCUR MAINLY
BEFORE SUNRISE WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCH IN THE VALLEYS... AND
WERE AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A GAUGE ON
MT LEMMON RECORDED 0.39 INCH OF RAINFALL.
SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS THE 15/12Z NAM AND THE 15/06Z UNIV
OF AZ WRF-NAM DEPICT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO OCCUR INTO TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE SWRN CONUS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORT MAX MOVING SEWD AND APPROACHING THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST AT THIS TIME. A SERIES OF IMPULSES ALOFT WILL THEN
CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVER ARIZONA BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A 542 DM
LOW TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MIDDAY MON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
PROGGED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOPS TODAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5-
15 DEGS COOLER VERSUS SAT DEPENDING UPON LOCATION.
THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 16/18Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL OCCUR FROM KTUS VICINITY EAST TO
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO MONDAY MORNING. ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA WILL
PREVAIL WEST OF KTUS THRU THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA EXISTS
MAINLY FROM KTUS EAST AND SOUTH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
CLOUD DECKS WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM 5K-10K FT MSL. SURFACE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE SELY TO SWLY AT 5-15
KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR INTO MONDAY
MORNING MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THERE IS
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL OCCUR MONDAY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ABOVE 7000 FEET. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /235 AM MST/...MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SECOND MORE STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE STATE. THIS FEATURE WAS DIGGING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THIS MORNING. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES INTO THE
STATE. SO MAY SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
PICKING UP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE A
RATHER RAW DAY WITH MUCH COOLER HIGHS ALONG WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CRASHING DOWN INTO THE 4300-
5300 FOOT LEVEL MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF VALUES FOR THIS MULTI-DAY EVENT WILL RANGE
LESS 0.10" OVER WRN/CNTRL PIMA COUNTY TO 0.65" IN THE VALLEYS EAST
OF TUCSON. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. SINCE THE
INITIAL MTN QPF WILL BE LIQUID TODAY...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 3"-7" IN THE WHITES WITH 1-3" ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE SKY ISLANDS.
ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS MONDAY EVENING...FOCUS WILL TURN TO MUCH
COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE CONCERNED
WITH AREAS OF FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AS NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS
TO CONSIDER.
COLD AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
933 PM MST SAT NOV 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
OCCUR MONDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THAT SAID...STILL
LOOKING AT SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TOMORROW MORNING. CLOUDS WERE
STARTING TO LOWER AND THICKEN LATE THIS EVENING WITH RADAR DETECTING
SOME WEAK ECHOES SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AT ANY
RATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARED TO BE ON TRACK WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THUS...NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE
DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 16/06Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS 9-12K FT MSL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS ABOVE. CLOUDS
SPREADING NORTH AND LOWERING TO SCT-BKN 5-7K FT...BKN-OVC 9-12K FT
AFT 15/06Z AND CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED -SHRA WILL DEVELOP SOUTH TO WEST OF KTUS AFTER 15/05Z...
THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY.
SURFACE WIND ELY/SELY AT 5-15 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
THEN BECOMING S-SW 9-17 KTS AFTER 15/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
SUNDAY AREA WIDE AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A SECOND
STRONGER STORM WILL THEN BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. IT WILL DRY OUT
TUESDAY ONWARD WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES LINGERING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N/125W WILL FILL THIS EVENING THEN MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS SE ARIZONA SUNDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDERSOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT
WILL TRANSLATE INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MUCHOF THE AREA. ACCORDING TO SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS...SHOWERS
SHOULDMOVE INTO THE TUCSON METRO AREA DURING THE 15/09Z TO 15/11Z
PERIOD.
THE 14/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS SE ARIZONA SUN. BASED ON THESE
SOLUTIONS...POPS WERE INCREASED SUN ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND
SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. 14/12Z GFS DEPICTED A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO EXIST SUN. THUS...EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SUN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW EXISTS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST
AND SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.
THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION SUN NIGHT AND MON TURNS TOWARD A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SWRN CONUS.
THERE WERE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC
REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW BY MIDDAY MON. FOR
INSTANCE...THE GFS/CMC WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE UPPER LOW TO
BE CENTERED OVER NWRN NEW MEXICO MIDDAY MON. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF WAS
FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND DEPICTED THE UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER NRN ARIZONA MIDDAY MON.
THERE WERE ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA
POPS FOR SUN NIGHT-MON. THUS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND
COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON. SNOW LEVELS EARLY SUN EVENING WILL
STILL BE ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOPS...THEN SNOW LEVELS LATE MON AFTERNOON
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 4000 FEET ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 5000 FEET NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT
SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM MON...AND WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE BRIEFLY ACHIEVED PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MON NIGHT WILL
BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AREA-
WIDE TUE-SAT AS NLY FLOW ALOFT TUE TRANSITIONS TO WLY FLOW ALOFT
NEXT SAT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.25 - 0.75 INCH IN THE VALLEYS FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD...BUT ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT 0.50 - 0.75 INCH OF LIQUID AMOUNTS.
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 3-7
INCHES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET...AND FROM 1-4
INCHES ACROSS THE CATALINA/RINCON/GALIURO/PINALENO MOUNTAINS IN
PIMA/GRAHAM COUNTIES ABOVE 7000 FEET. ONLY TRACE ACCUMS TO PERHAPS
AN INCH OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR ON THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES.
HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE ABOUT 5-15 DEGS COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED
THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING UPON LOCATION...THEN ANOTHER 10-15 DEGS OF
COOLING WILL OCCUR MON. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
OCCUR MON NIGHT EXCEPT ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. FREEZE WARNINGS AND/OR HARD FREEZE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MON NIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR
TUE-FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY NEXT FRI.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
555 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
THE MAIN UPDATE HAS BEEN TO STRENGTHEN WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS. ADDED A HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS OFF THE PALMER
DIVIDE...GENERALLY AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON THE PLAINS. THE
LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTH WINDS GUSTING IN
EXCESS OF 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW TO
PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND VERY STRONG CROSS WINDS ON EAST WEST
HIGHWAYS.
ALSO CANCELED THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO WESTERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME.
THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS OVER BACA AND
PROWERS COUNTIES THROUGH 9 PM...BUT SHOULD NOT BECOME STRONG OR
SEVERE.
OTHERWISE...SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS APPEAR TO BE OK AT THIS
TIME BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THERE. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...
CURRENTLY...
700 MB CIRCULATION LIKELY OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT 2 PM AS PER
RADAR AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION ALONG WITH STRONGER STORMS NOTED
OVER THE PLAINS. 500 MB CIRCULATION WAS JUST SW OF THE 4 CORNERS AS
PER WATER VAPOR. NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
DIVERGENT REGION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO. A WIND SHIFT
LINE WAS NOTED ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS THE PUEBLO/EL PASO COUNTY
LINE...MOVING SOUTH.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP BY 7 TO 8 PM AS 700 MB WIND STEADILY INCREASE. HRRR BY
MIDNIGHT SHOWS 700 MB WINDS OF 70 KNTS OVER N EL PASO COUNTY. HEAVY
WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND LAST INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW IS LIKELY AND GUSTS TO 50
MPH ARE LIKELY. SNOW DRIFTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND TRAVEL WILL BE
DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DVD.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE 700 MB CIRCULATION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL LIKELY FAVOR ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. FOR THIS
REASON I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR EASTER LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY. TOTAL ACCUMS THIS REGION SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 INCHES.
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO FALL ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE S MTNS...BUT WITH 700 MB WINDS HAVING A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT
(VS NORTHEASTERLY)...EXCESSIVELY HEAVY SNOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
OVERALL 6 TO 10 INCHES IS LIKELY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT MTN TOP.
ALONG THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY FROM FREMONT TO THE KS BORDER SHOULD
SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIMIT
ACCUMS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WINDS...HAVE INCLUDED MOST
OF THESE REGIONS IN A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. THE SNOW OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE E PLAINS SHOULD BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING
AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
STRONG WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
THE PLAINS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WIDESPREAD. STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MTNS...AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST...FLOW WILL
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE SW MTNS...AND SNOW RATES SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS REGION.
TUESDAY...
STORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. MAIN CONCERN IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT E LAS ANIMAS
WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW BUT AREAS FROM LAMAR AND SPRINGFIELD I AM NOT SO
CONFIDENT AS STORM WILL BE LIFTING OUT AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE ALL
THAT COLD. HOWEVER...IF EC VERIFIES WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THIS
WILL PUT THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW. WILL
DISCUSS THIS CONCERN WITH THE EVENING SHIFT AND ALLOW THEM TO ADJUST
THE FCST AS NEEDED.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION SHOULD BE
LESSENING BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STILL BE
AN ISSUE AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. I
WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME SUN ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN OVER ALL OF THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE LIKELY ALL AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN. PRIMARILY LONGER TERM ISSUES INCLUDES TIMING OF
DEPARTING SNOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING FORECAST DISTRICT
...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.
RECENT LONGER TERM PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT VIGOROUS CLOSED UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVE INTO IOWA BY
NOON WEDNESDAY.
HAVE DEPICTED CONTINUED GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
INTO TUESDAY EVENING(PRIMARILY EASTERN SECTIONS) WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING OVER MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY
12Z WEDNESDAY.
THEN A RETURN TO BASICALLY TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES) SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT MONDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES RUNNING WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF
MID TO LATE NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND NEXT MONDAY...WHILE COOLEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED
SATURDAY. FINALLY...MOST AGGRESSIVE GRADIENT WINDS DURING THE
LONGER TERM ARE PROJECTED FROM TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
EXTREME NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AT KCOS AND KPUB DURING
THE NEXT 24. PEAK WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 KNOTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS...BUT THE GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE COLORADO SPRINGS REGION WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH
VERY HIGH AMOUNTS N OF THE AIRPORT AND MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS S OF THE
AIRPORT. OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING ABOUT 5-6 INCHES AT KCOS...BUT
THIS IS OUR BEST SCIENTIFIC GUESS.
KPUB MAY ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP....ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OVER KPUB SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE ANY SNOWFALL AT KPUB.
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE AT KPUB THROUGH THE NEXT 24H.
GUSTY N WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT KALS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE AS STRONG. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KALS THIS
EVENING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
COZ085-086-089-093-095-097.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ089-093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-061-
063-072-074-076-079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ095-096.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-073-
075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ087.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST TUESDAY
FOR COZ094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ064-
065-067.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ066-068.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ081-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ088.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
422 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015
.CURRENTLY...SFC HIGH PRES IS DIRECTLY N OF THE REGION OVER SC AND
NC. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ONSHORE FLOW ARE RESULTING
IN A MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCU DECK OVER ERN PORTIONS OF NE FL WITH
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HINTS OF POSSIBLE
LIGHT SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT NO SHOWERS TO
SPEAK OF ATTM. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 40S N TO LOWER 60S S. NE TO E WINDS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY
THIS TIME BUT STILL BREEZY AT THE COAST NEAR 15 MPH.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES TO OUR N WILL NOT MOVE MUCH WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT N DRAINAGE FLOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROUGH OFFSHORE. MODELS STILL INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SMALL SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE GENERAL OUTLOOK
REMAINING THE SAME. HRRR SHOWING JUST A FEW SMALL SHOWERS AND THE
NMM/ARW INDICATING AT LEAST ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE OVER THE MARINE
WATERS. WILL GO WITH ISOLD SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND NO
PRECIP MENTION FOR THE LAND ZONES. SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FROM
FLAGLER TO DUVAL COUNTIES. WITH MODERATING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND
OCNL STRATOCU CLOUDS TEMPS NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER INLAND AND SIMILAR LOWS NEAR THE COAST AS THIS MORNING.
MONDAY...MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY THOUGH WITH MUCH LESS HIGH
CLOUDINESS AS THE PAST 24 HRS AS AN UPPER LEVEL MOVES E OF THE
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL 20% POP FOR THE MARINE WATERS AND
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE WEAK COASTAL TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AROUND THE 295-300K SFC. MAX TEMPS CERTAIN TO BE WARMER
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...AND LOWER 80S S ZONES.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL PROMOTE
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPP 60S AND LOWER
70S...WHICH WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS BUT MID LEVEL DRY
AIR SHOULD KEEP THIS IN CHECK.
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH MAY SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT TO SUPPORT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
INLAND BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AREA WIDE BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER AND MORE PERSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE TIMING OF THE PREFRONTAL RAIN. THIS TRANSLATES
TO THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BEGIN
TO WIND DOWN ACROSS SE GA BY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL REACH NE FL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN WINDING DOWN ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THURSDAY EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT SLOWS TO A CRAWL.
OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS
EXPECTED...NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED WITH COASTAL TERMINALS SEEING BKN
CIGS AROUND 4500 FT WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FOR GNV. FOR
TONIGHT...HAVE BKN CIGS STICKING AROUND FOR SSI AND SGJ BUT FEW-
SCT ELSEWHERE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS FOR TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY TEMPO
GROUPS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE MONDAY MORNING TO
AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE ENE WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING A BIT LOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO
BUT STILL SCEC HEADLINE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA MON AND MON NIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TUE THROUGH WED AS PRES GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS AS COASTAL TROUGHING DISSIPATES AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. AN SCA HEADLINE LOOKS PROBABLE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WED EVENING. FRONTAL PASSAGE FCST FOR WED NIGHT
INTO EARLY THU.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO PERSISTING ONSHORE WINDS AND SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 51 76 57 78 / 10 0 10 10
SSI 58 73 63 75 / 10 10 20 30
JAX 58 77 62 81 / 10 10 10 10
SGJ 65 78 67 81 / 20 20 20 20
GNV 58 81 62 84 / 10 10 10 10
OCF 61 82 63 84 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/SHULER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
932 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015
.CURRENTLY...FAIRLY STRONG AND LARGE SFC HIGH PRES NOTED THIS
MORNING OVER ERN TN AT 1033 MB. FLOW ALOFT IS WLY WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSS THROUGH THE NE GULF...CONTINUING A
SPREAD OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF FL. LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS STRATOCU CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL IN THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH IMPACTED COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH BROKEN CU SO FAR IS
AROUND ST AUGUSTINE. NO ECHOES ON RADAR AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. PARTLY
TO OCNL MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO STRATO CU (FOR MAINLY ERN ZONES) AND
HIGH CLOUDS. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS ARE PROBABLY TOO BULLISH ON THE
POPS AND BRING IN SMALL BANDS OF SHOWERS LATER TODAY. THE HRRR ON
THE OTHER HAND IS DRIER AND SEEMS MORE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
CONDS. SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATER TODAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS BUT PROBABLY KEEP THE COASTAL LAND ZONES DRY AT THIS
TIME WITH 10% RAIN PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED WITH COASTAL TAFS SEEING SCT-
BKN CU AROUND 4000 FT. FOR GNV...MOSTLY FEW-SCT CU. OTHERWISE...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. JUST A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FOR
TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CHANCE FOR ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENT DATA AND MODEL INFORMATION INDICATES WE CAN
REMOVE THE SCA HEADLINE. WILL KEEP SCEC IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...WITH NEARSHORE JUST BELOW SCEC.
RIP CURRENTS: LATEST ESTIMATES ON SURF AROUND 2-4 FT. A MODERATE
RISK IS EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO PERSISTING ONSHORE
WINDS AND SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 50 74 59 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 69 58 74 64 / 10 10 10 20
JAX 73 57 78 64 / 10 10 10 20
SGJ 75 64 78 68 / 10 10 10 20
GNV 75 57 81 64 / 0 0 10 10
OCF 78 60 81 64 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/SHULER/COMBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
355 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING ONGOING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
STREAMING UP THE PLAINS TO MID/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY WEST/NORTHWEST
OF TN VALLEY/OH RVR VALLEY RIDGE COMPLEX. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC
WINDS OF 5 TO 10+ MPH CURRENTLY KEEPING TEMPS UP IN THE 40S ACRS
THE AREA. ALOFT...BROAD RIDGING CONTINUED TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE
CONUS WHILE A STRONG LONG WAVE TROF LOOMED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
TODAY...SIMILAR AIRMASS IN PLACE/THERMAL PROFILES AS SAT CONTINUE
ACRS THE AREA...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEPER MIXING THAN WHAT THE
MODELS GIVE CREDIT FOR LOOKS TO BE ON TAP AGAIN TODAY WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS WITH A FEW AREAS PUSHING
THE UPPER 60S. BUT THE FLY IN THE MILDNESS OINTMENT IS INCREASING
LLVL MOISTURE PROFILES FROM THE SOUTHERLY ADVECTION...AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THE STRATOCU CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACRS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS MAKING IT UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY
WHICH WOULD TEMPER THE WARM UP POTENTIAL. WILL GAMBLE AND GO WITH
THE LOW TO MID 60 POTENTIAL ACRS THE EASTERN HALF OR A LITTLE MORE
OF THE DVN CWA...AND KEEP THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN FCST AREA IN
THE LOW 60S WHICH COULD BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGHER SFC
DPT FEED AND SOME OF THE STRATOCU COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WILL NEED SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20S
TO GET THE FCST HIGHS TODAY.
TONIGHT...30 TO 40+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AND MOIST CONVEYOR OFF THE
WESTERN GULF AND UP THE PLAINS TO REALLY TAKE SHAPE THIS PERIOD...
BUT LATEST 00Z RUN MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THE FULL PUNCH
OF THIS TO STREAM MORE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CWA UNTIL VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. TIME FOR TOP-DOWN SATURATION AND DRY SUB H7 MB LAYERS
TO OVERCOME TO LIMIT MUCH OF ANY PRECIP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RVR
UNTIL MON MORNING. A FEW SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF AND ARW-
EAST EVEN SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE CWA TO BE DRY THROUGH 12Z MON
WITH JUST SOME PATCHY PRECIP ALOFT/VIRGA PERCOLATING WEST OF THE
MS RVR LATE. BUT WITH STRENGTH OF THE LLJ AND EVENTUAL THTA-E FEED
WILL RAMP UP POPS ACRS THE WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS...SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING SATURATION TO
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT AND WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
NEAR 50. ..12..
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
MON-WED... THIS PERIOD CONTINUES SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET ONE
FOR THE CWA. AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL TRANSLATE E/NE AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH DIGGING
NORTHERN STREAM CANADIAN SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WED NGT. THIS WILL SET UP AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
MON-TUE IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM. MEANWHILE STRENGTHENING AND
UNIMPEDED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW ABUNDANT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF
RAIN INTO WED BEFORE TAPERING OFF WITH PASSAGE OF STORM SYSTEM.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.25 TO
1.6 INCHES... WHICH IS OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR RECORD OR
RECORD TERRITORY FOR NOVEMBER. 00Z/15 NAEFS ALSO HIGHLIGHTS
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AT
VARIOUS LEVELS BETWEEN 925-500 MB ON ORDER OF 2-4 SIGMA... OR
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS COUPLED WITH STRENGTH OF FORCING SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH AMOUNTS... WHICH IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY NCEP GEFS REFORECAST QPF ANALOGS AND CIPS ANALOGS.
THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BRING MOSTLY WITHIN-BANK RISES ON AREA
STREAMS... CREEKS AND RIVERS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN ANY TRIBUTARY RIVER BASIN WHICH RECEIVES
UPWARDS OF 2+ INCHES IN 24 HR TIMEFRAME PER NCRFC ENSEMBLES.
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROGGED WITH SYSTEM... BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER KEPT
ISOLD MENTION TUE-TUE NGT WITH BRUNT OF THE DYNAMICS AND 850-300
MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEARING 0K/KM. DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE MON-WED PERIOD.
THU-SAT... QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED RATHER PRONOUNCED MODEL RUN TO RUN
VARIANCES ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ENERGY SHUTTLED INTO THE
REGION FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH FAST ZONAL UPPER JET. SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST 24+ HRS OF DRY CONDITIONS WED NGT THROUGH THU IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING SYSTEM BEFORE ANY PCPN CHANCES RETURN TO FCST AT THE
EARLIEST FRI... AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF ENERGY. TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING COLDER THIS PERIOD WITH
CWA POSITIONED NEAR LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MAKING FOR A
CHALLENGING PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST. POSITION OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE KEY TO WHETHER ITS RAIN...RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR POSSIBLY EVEN ALL SNOW. AGAIN VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON
DETAILS... BUT CERTAINLY WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE GET
PAST EARLY WEEK HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT... AS SIGNAL HAS BEEN PRESENT
FOR A POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT ON COLDER SIDE OF BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT
JUST WHERE THAT WILL BE STILL VERY MUCH IN FLUX.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
FIRST CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
NEXT 6 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS NOT FULLY
DECOUPLED WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING IN THE 7-11KT RANGE...
RADAR HAS BEEN OBSERVING 40-50KT WINDS AROUND 2K FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE. THE RAP IS INDICATING THE WIND PATTERN WILL STAY SIMILAR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO HAVE LLWS IN THE FORECAST
FOR ALL SITES THROUGH 11-12Z. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS WITH LESS
WIND IMPACT...BUT UPON TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING /AROUND
15 OR 16Z/...EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS FOR ALL TERMINALS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO HAVE BROKEN VFR CEILINGS BY 03Z.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1137 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE...THAT WAS SITUATED
OVERHEAD YESTERDAY...HAD SINCE SETTLED S-SE TO THE MID MS RIVER AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND SUNSHINE ONLY PARTIALLY FILTERED BY CI HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
AFTER A NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL.
ALOFT...A WEAK RIDGE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER...WITH
AN UPSTREAM LOW OVER WESTERN AZ AND ANOTHER WEAKER CIRCULATION
WELL OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WV IMAGERY.
A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WAS
DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC WELL WEST OF WA AND OR. LOW LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WAS CONFINING GULF MOISTURE TO
SOUTH TX. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF WARM BUT RATHER
DRY AIR UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM AS A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM FOCUSING ON THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A PASSING WING OF CI OVER THE AREA
LIKELY TO PASS TO THE EAST UNDER A DEVELOPING...MORE CONFLUENT MID
LEVEL FLOW. THIS POINTS TOWARD CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT...
WHICH ALONG WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DRY AIR SHOULD LEAD
TO DECOUPLING. HAVE THUS KEPT MINS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND COLDEST GUIDANCE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40
SOUTH.
SUNDAY LOOKS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPERATURES WARMING AT LEAST INTO THE
MID 60S OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
CLOUD COVER. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THICK CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF TX
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH CORRELATES WITH A LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND
850 TO 700 MB. THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS
MOISTURE N-NE INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COUNT ON THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT HEATING AND HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND WEST. WITHOUT THE CLOUDS...NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IA COULD
POTENTIALLY AGAIN REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN COLDER WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENT STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR MOVIE LOOPS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. STRONG
JET ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN PULLING INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW/STRONG SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL THEN TRACK INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT A VERY
NICE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RIGHT OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO THE DVN CWA
ON A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ON TUESDAY OF AROUND 1.50 INCHES. THIS WOULD BE
AT OR NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR NOVEMBER AND I DON`T SEE ANY REASON TO
DISAGREE CONSIDERING THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP.
THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN CWA. THIS RAIN WILL THEN BE WIDESPREAD OVER
ALL THE CWA ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING...TAPERING TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG
FORCING ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
SYSTEM/DYNAMICS LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS FOR SEVERAL DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH TO RAISE POPS
TO AT LEAST 80-90 PERCENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MODERATE TO STRONG
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
RAIN... BUT JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST
1-2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE CWA
ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM THEN LIFTS NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH THE RAIN ENDING ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...OPERATIONAL MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS
COLDER WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS THE AO/NAO ANOMALIES DIP NEGATIVE AND
THE PNA GOES POSITIVE. THIS FAVORS A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE UPPER
MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT ON THE EDGE OF THE COLD AIR AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING/PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY THIS FAR OUT.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
FIRST CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
NEXT 6 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS NOT FULLY
DECOUPLED WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING IN THE 7-11KT
RANGE...RADAR HAS BEEN OBSERVING 40-50KT WINDS AROUND 2K FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE RAP IS INDICATING THE WIND PATTERN WILL
STAY SIMILAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO HAVE LLWS IN
THE FORECAST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH 11-12Z. THERE WILL BE A FEW
HOURS WITH LESS WIND IMPACT...BUT UPON TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING /AROUND 15 OR 16Z/...EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS TO AROUND
20KTS FOR ALL TERMINALS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO HAVE BROKEN
VFR CEILINGS BY 03Z.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
639 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TO IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SPOTTIER SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS
BAND OF RAIN WHICH ARE MOVING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE U.P. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TRENDS
FOLLOWED BY MARINE ISSUES.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER FAR WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA
DURING THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SPOTTY
OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONGER FORCING DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WEAKENS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY NOT
MAKE IT INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA THOUGH.
SOUTHEAST WINDS CIRCULATING AROUND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC WILL KEEP A FEED OF DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR IN THIS
PORTION OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WITH A BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND...LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT WILL
BOOST PWATS THROUGH THE DAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UPPER PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING IN
A WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME. THEN THE NAM/GFS BRING IN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
STRENGTHENS DURING THIS TIME...WHICH ARGUES FOR HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FORM KANSAS TOWARDS WISCONSIN AND
BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST
TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EXTENT TO WITH PHASING OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY. THIS ALSO EFFECT
HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES AND HOW SOON LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BEGINS.
A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS WILL BRING LOTS OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA WITH THE PROSPECT OF SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA SHOULD RECEIVE THE BEST RAINS WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DESPITE THE
RAIN.
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND
SPEEDS QUICKLY TOWARDS JAMES BAY. IN FACT THE DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE AREA QUALIFIES AS EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS AND WILL PRODUCE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL PRODUCE STRONG WEST WINDS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 40 MPH LIKELY OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WITH 50 MPH WINDS OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS COMES MUCH COLDER AIR. 850MB TEMPERATURES
DROP TO -12C BY THURSDAY EVENING AND REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIND DIRECTION
AS IT WILL BE LARGELY WESTERLY...WHICH FAVORS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY THERE THURSDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE KEWEENAW WITH A FEW INCHES LIKELY OVER THE
COURSE OF A FEW DAYS.
THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING
MILDER AIR IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF LOW PRES ORGANIZING OVER THE
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS DURING
THIS FCST PERIOD. AT ALL TERMINALS...LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA
WILL RESULT IN LLWS TONIGHT. AT KIWD...INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL
FALL TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN IN THE LOWER MVFR CATEGORY THRU
TUE. SE DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS FROM FALLING TO IFR OR
LOWER...BUT STILL...THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR TUE AFTN. AT
KCMX...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT THAT MVFR CONDITIONS SET IN
AND THEN PERSIST THRU TUE. AT KSAW...SLOW E PROGRESSION OF MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN VFR HOLDING THRU TONIGHT BEFORE MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP TUE MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY KIWD/KCMX AT
TIMES TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUE AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED
AT 346 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SHORELINES EXPOSED TO WINDS FROM THESE DIRECTIONS WILL
SEE WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET DEVELOP...WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION...EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN WATERS WILL SEE NEAR GALE FORCE
GUSTS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS LOOK A LITTLE TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
GALES TO OCCUR HOWEVER.
THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD GALES ARE
LIKELY. NEAR STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SL/MPC
LONG TERM...RDM
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
321 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015
QUIET AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT STRONGER STORM SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET
AND VERY MILD BY MID-NOVEMBER STANDARDS. THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
TOWARD TUESDAY WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY FOR THE AREA. WE WILL SEE A
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS MOVE OVER THE
AREA BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE
HELPING TEMPS REACH AROUND 60 TODAY AND AGAIN ON MON.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON MON.
WE ARE EXPECTING THAT RAIN WILL HOLD OFF NOW UNTIL AFTER MON.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BELOW 10K FT THROUGH MON EVENING.
RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN LATE MON NIGHT ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND WILL MAX OUT TUE AFTERNOON FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FCST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP BEGINNING LATE
MON NIGHT AND WILL MAX OUT ON TUE AFTERNOON AS WE SEE A 60 KNOT LLJ
SURGE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SW. RIGHT NOW THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE MODELS TO SUPPORT A THUNDER MENTION AS THE
INSTABILITY STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED THOUGH IF THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY UNDER FORECASTING
THE THUNDER POTENTIAL GIVEN HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ADVECTING IN AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ AND UPPER DYNAMICS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE TIMING OF THE RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE SYSTEM AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE TRACKING THE MID LEVEL WAVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP GULF
MOISTURE SO THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. I LEFT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...HOWEVER THE HIGH RES EURO IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ACT TO DIMINISH
THE RAIN.
COLD AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH MOVES IN. THE GFS IS
TRACKING ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY. IMPACTS FROM SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE REGION NORTH OF A MUSKEGON TO MOUNT PLEASANT LINE
COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS. THE HIGH RES EURO IS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS POTENTIAL FEATURE...HOLDING OFF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
RW/SW IN THE FORECAST FOR THU NIGHT INTO SAT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
I CONTINUED THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE GRR VAD WIND PROFILE
SHOWS 45 KNOTS AT 2000 FT AT 0408Z. ALSO THE RAP MODEL SOUNDING AT
03Z SHOWS 38 KNOTS AT 1200 FT AGL AND 42 KNOTS AT 1800 AGL. ONCE
THE SUN COMES UP SUNDAY MORNING MIXING WILL END THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ISSUE. OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015
WE WILL BE HOLDING ON TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE. COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE STILL UP
AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO. WINDS ALOFT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE WINDS MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT
THE SFC DUE TO IT BEING A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. THIS WILL BE
THE CASE THROUGH MON NIGHT. WINDIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUE
THROUGH THU WITH THE NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT APPEARS POSSIBLE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
RIVER RISES CAN BE EXPECTED... AND SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS COULD APPROACH BANKFULL BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1129 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A MOIST AIR
MASS NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO... RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 60 EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUING IN THE SHORT TERM. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THESE ARE PRIMARILY
THIN AND WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMING IN BELOW
950 MB LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... ROUGHLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HOLLAND TO GRR TO ALMA. THIS COULD BE A HINT THAT SOME
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT... BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE BULK OF THE RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT
AMOUNTS MAY ARRIVE MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF GRR LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AT THE ONSET OF THIS EVENT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE. HIGHS UP NEAR 60 SUNDAY ALTHOUGH STILL BREEZY AND
THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
GRADIENT RELAXES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE TIGHTENING UP AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NNE FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR REGION BOTH DAYS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND BECOME MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS OUR AREA OF AROUND AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ON AVERAGE ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THIS TIME FRAME WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND AMPLE GULF MOISTURE.
FAIR AND COOLER WX WILL RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PCPN FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY IN THE FORM OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SOME COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
I CONTINUED THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE GRR VAD WIND PROFILE
SHOWS 45 KNOTS AT 2000 FT AT 0408Z. ALSO THE RAP MODEL SOUNDING AT
03Z SHOWS 38 KNOTS AT 1200 FT AGL AND 42 KNOTS AT 1800 AGL. ONCE
THE SUN COMES UP SUNDAY MORNING MIXING WILL END THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ISSUE. OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS BRING WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS
AND WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT APPEARS POSSIBLE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
RIVER RISES CAN BE EXPECTED... AND SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS COULD APPROACH BANKFULL BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
317 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON HAS PROVIDED CLEAR
SKIES TO MOST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST AND
CAUSES THE UPPER FLOW TO BACK TO SOUTHERLY. A SMALL AREA OF CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF DULUTH/SUPERIOR HAD SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS SINCE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN
COVERAGE. THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THE CLOUD WILL DIMINISH...BUT
EARLIER RUNS OF THE RAP INDICATED THE CLOUD WILL BE ABOUT GONE BY
NOW...BUT THAT HAS NOT OCCURRED. WE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THE
HEAD OF THE LAKE...THEN INCREASE ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT.
A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO
AROUND 0.75 INCHES OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA...THEN TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH
BY 00Z TUESDAY. THESE VALUES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUE REPORTED AT KINL ON NOVEMBER 16 OF 0.79
INCHES. WE EXPECT FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS
WELL...MAINLY LATE.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR CWA. WE ADDED
THE MENTION OF FOG TO ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT EXPECT IT TO
BE MOST WIDESPREAD AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A HALF
INCH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 IN THE ARROWHEAD AND TO
AROUND 40 FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
RISE LATE AS CLOUDS THICKEN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
FORTIES TO AROUND FIFTY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
N/NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A NEARLY CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG WAA IN THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH BROAD LARGE-SCALE LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LOW AND AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...PWATS AROUND
1 INCH...WILL ALLOW FOR AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS
TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
WEAK...BUT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. TWO WAVES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 100-
200 J/KG WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE REGION TUES AND WED...AND HELP
TRIGGER THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS.
AS THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH NRN MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED A
SECONDARY LOW FROM THE NW WILL PHASE WITH THE PARENT LOW AND ALSO
DRAW DOWN A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS TO CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE NE ACROSS ONTARIO WED
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT BE LACKING OF MOISTURE AND ONLY
BE CAPABLE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. AT THIS MOMENT IT
APPEARS ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MAY SEE AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES. THE PERSISTENT COLD NWLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
THE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 40S. THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THE AMT OF NIGHT
TIME COOLING. HOWEVER...THE COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. WILL SEE A PUSH OF
COOL MOIST MARINE AIR OFF THE LAKE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
A DECK OF LOW IFR CEILINGS INTO THE DLH TERMINAL AROUND OR JUST
AFTER 00Z. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT HIB THIS EVENING AS THE PUSH
CONTINUES WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...AN INCOMING WAVE FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
AND PRODUCE A LAYER OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VSBYS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 48 45 49 / 30 90 70 100
INL 36 49 45 49 / 10 60 70 80
BRD 42 51 47 51 / 20 70 80 90
HYR 38 51 45 51 / 20 70 70 100
ASX 36 52 44 53 / 20 70 70 90
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1148 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE COOLER MORE MOIST 850MB AIR WILL INVADE
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND HOLD HIGHS TO AROUND
60F. AREAS WEST RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
TONIGHT...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE EAST OF HIGHWAY 61. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH UPPER 20S TO
NEAR 30 ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE NAM SHOWS DRIZZLE IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH FOG TO THE WEST TO
HIGHWAY 61.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS...THEN EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET BETTER ON TIMING...HOWEVER STILL OFF ON
TRACK. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE TRACK
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE EC
REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...WHICH
FAVORS COLDER TEMPS ABLE TO PUSH FURTHER EAST..THUS MORE SNOW OR
AT LEAST A MIX. OFTEN WITH CLASSIC LOWS LIKE THIS THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ENDS UP DIMINISHING THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. SURPRISINGLY THE NAM STILL ALLOWS PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WITH A LARGE SWATH WITH QPF AMOUNTS GREATER THAN AN
INCH. THE EC ALSO DROPS POCKETS WITH MORE THAN AN INCH. THE GFS
WITH THE FURTHER WEST TRACK DEVELOPS MORE CONVECTION AND LESS QPF
FOR THE CWA. ONE MORE CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. WHERE THERE IS SNOW...IT SHOULD BE WET AND NOT A
LOT OF BLOWING IS EXPECTED.
SYSTEM EXITS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND A CLIPPER
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR MORE OF
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE LAST SYSTEM ALSO FAVORED NORTHERN
NEB...HOWEVER 24 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVED OVERHEAD...IT JUMPED 100
MILES SOUTH AND IMPACTED THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP.
THUS CONTINUED LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS COLD WITH THIS CLIPPER...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED HIGHS AND LOWS FROM EARLIER
RUNS. WILL TREND FORECAST TEMPS DOWN...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED FURTHER IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
AN AREA OF MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS ARE BUILDING NORTH FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY TAKES
IT ACROSS KLBF...OR JUST EAST OF KLBF BY 20Z. THE WESTERN EDGE IS
ERODING SLIGHTLY...SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SKIES VFR AT
KLBF TODAY. UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED HOWEVER. OTHERWISE A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON
MONDAY AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH OF THE APPROACHING LOW. STRATUS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AT KLBF AND
POSSIBLY KVTN AFTER 09Z. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THE LOCATION AND THE
AMOUNT OF LOWER CEILINGS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
535 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE COOLER MORE MOIST 850MB AIR WILL INVADE
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND HOLD HIGHS TO AROUND
60F. AREAS WEST RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
TONIGHT...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE EAST OF HIGHWAY 61. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH UPPER 20S TO
NEAR 30 ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE NAM SHOWS DRIZZLE IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH FOG TO THE WEST TO
HIGHWAY 61.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS...THEN EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET BETTER ON TIMING...HOWEVER STILL OFF ON
TRACK. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE TRACK
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE EC
REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...WHICH
FAVORS COLDER TEMPS ABLE TO PUSH FURTHER EAST..THUS MORE SNOW OR
AT LEAST A MIX. OFTEN WITH CLASSIC LOWS LIKE THIS THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ENDS UP DIMINISHING THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. SURPRISINGLY THE NAM STILL ALLOWS PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WITH A LARGE SWATH WITH QPF AMOUNTS GREATER THAN AN
INCH. THE EC ALSO DROPS POCKETS WITH MORE THAN AN INCH. THE GFS
WITH THE FURTHER WEST TRACK DEVELOPS MORE CONVECTION AND LESS QPF
FOR THE CWA. ONE MORE CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. WHERE THERE IS SNOW...IT SHOULD BE WET AND NOT A
LOT OF BLOWING IS EXPECTED.
SYSTEM EXITS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND A CLIPPER
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR MORE OF
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE LAST SYSTEM ALSO FAVORED NORTHERN
NEB...HOWEVER 24 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVED OVERHEAD...IT JUMPED 100
MILES SOUTH AND IMPACTED THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP.
THUS CONTINUED LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS COLD WITH THIS CLIPPER...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED HIGHS AND LOWS FROM EARLIER
RUNS. WILL TREND FORECAST TEMPS DOWN...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED FURTHER IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
NO FOG HAS FORMED YET BUT SATELLITE SHOWS FOG FORMING OVER WRN KS
AT 1130Z. FOG MAY FORM FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS SWRN
NEB.
STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD FROM FROM 06Z ONWARD TONIGHT...PERHAPS
SOONER...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 61 WITH IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE COOLER MORE MOIST 850MB AIR WILL INVADE
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND HOLD HIGHS TO AROUND
60F. AREAS WEST RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
TONIGHT...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE EAST OF HIGHWAY 61. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH UPPER 20S TO
NEAR 30 ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE NAM SHOWS DRIZZLE IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH FOG TO THE WEST TO
HIGHWAY 61.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS...THEN EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET BETTER ON TIMING...HOWEVER STILL OFF ON
TRACK. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE TRACK
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE EC
REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...WHICH
FAVORS COLDER TEMPS ABLE TO PUSH FURTHER EAST..THUS MORE SNOW OR
AT LEAST A MIX. OFTEN WITH CLASSIC LOWS LIKE THIS THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ENDS UP DIMINISHING THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. SURPRISINGLY THE NAM STILL ALLOWS PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WITH A LARGE SWATH WITH QPF AMOUNTS GREATER THAN AN
INCH. THE EC ALSO DROPS POCKETS WITH MORE THAN AN INCH. THE GFS
WITH THE FURTHER WEST TRACK DEVELOPS MORE CONVECTION AND LESS QPF
FOR THE CWA. ONE MORE CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. WHERE THERE IS SNOW...IT SHOULD BE WET AND NOT A
LOT OF BLOWING IS EXPECTED.
SYSTEM EXITS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND A CLIPPER
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR MORE OF
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE LAST SYSTEM ALSO FAVORED NORTHERN
NEB...HOWEVER 24 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVED OVERHEAD...IT JUMPED 100
MILES SOUTH AND IMPACTED THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP.
THUS CONTINUED LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS COLD WITH THIS CLIPPER...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED HIGHS AND LOWS FROM EARLIER
RUNS. WILL TREND FORECAST TEMPS DOWN...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED FURTHER IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH AND GO BELOW 30F...PATCHY FOG/MIST IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A BBW-LBF-OGA LINE. THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED...SO WE WILL NOT INCLUDE VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM IN THE LBF
TERMINAL FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. IN THE REST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA...UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
859 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
QUITE A FEW REPORTS ON FACEBOOK THIS EVENING OF DRIZZLE ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT ALSO EXTENDING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST...THANKS! LATEST 00 UTC RAP SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME DRIZZLE SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND HAVE EXTENDED THE AREA OF DRIZZLE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL. FOR THE MOST PART CRITICAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE DRIZZLE IS FALLING SO AT THIS
TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DROP
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING LATE THIS EVENING. SOME
UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS COULD BECOME SLIPPERY. DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD END THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE.
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST...IT APPEARS THE DRIZZLE SHOULD END
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO
MONITOR BUT AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALSO...ANY WET SURFACES IN THE WEST THAT DO NOT
COMPLETELY DRY OFF COULD BECOME ICY DUE TO TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 20S TOWARD MORNING...EVEN THOUGH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL HAVE ENDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 3-5 MB PRESSURE RISES
OVER MOST OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CURRANT GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. WILL BUMP UP THE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING AND IN THE CENTRAL LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATEST RADAR IS
SHOWING A FEW VERY WEAK RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND ANOTHER AREA OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA MOVING INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST IN AN HOUR OR TWO. NO GROUND TRUTH FROM EITHER AREA
AS OF YET. ALSO GOT A REPORT OF SOME DRIZZLE NEAR GARRISON. CAN
SEE SOME VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE MINOT AREA. WILL LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF DRIZZLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
IMPACTS FROM LOW LEVEL STRATUS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
AS OF 20 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS PROPAGATED THROUGH THE US HIGHWAY
85 CORRIDOR...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE EVENING.
BREEZY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THE EVENING.
WHILE THE STRATUS DECK FROM THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS
THE AREA...A SECONDARY DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SOON ENTER
THE WEST...AND ALSO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. GIVEN A CONSENSUS OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES AND THE 17-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS...LOCATIONS WEST
OF US HIGHWAY 83 ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTING
LOWS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN
TONIGHT ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS.
FOR TUESDAY...STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR
CENTRAL...WITH COOLER POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS HIGH WINDS AND POTENTIAL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A DEEP...CLOSED LOW WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND
ENTER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL PHASE WITH A
CLIPPER COMING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A RAPID TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
ENHANCEMENT OF THE WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 40S. THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE 12 UTC
MODEL SUITE OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM ALL INDICATE A VERY WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THEREFORE...A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE LOWS AFTER THEY PHASE...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY EXIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
AND DRY GRASSLANDS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED AFTER COORDINATING WITH
LOCAL FIRE MANAGERS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND 52.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 840 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE SPREADING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING AND THEN SKIES CLEARING FROM THE WEST TO LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
655 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 3-5 MB PRESSURE RISES
OVER MOST OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CURRANT GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. WILL BUMP UP THE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING AND IN THE CENTRAL LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATEST RADAR IS
SHOWING A FEW VERY WEAK RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND ANOTHER AREA OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA MOVING INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST IN AN HOUR OR TWO. NO GROUND TRUTH FROM EITHER AREA
AS OF YET. ALSO GOT A REPORT OF SOME DRIZZLE NEAR GARRISON. CAN
SEE SOME VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE MINOT AREA. WILL LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF DRIZZLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
IMPACTS FROM LOW LEVEL STRATUS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
AS OF 20 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS PROPAGATED THROUGH THE US HIGHWAY
85 CORRIDOR...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE EVENING.
BREEZY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THE EVENING.
WHILE THE STRATUS DECK FROM THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS
THE AREA...A SECONDARY DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SOON ENTER
THE WEST...AND ALSO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. GIVEN A CONSENSUS OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES AND THE 17-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS...LOCATIONS WEST
OF US HIGHWAY 83 ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTING
LOWS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN
TONIGHT ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS.
FOR TUESDAY...STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR
CENTRAL...WITH COOLER POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS HIGH WINDS AND POTENTIAL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A DEEP...CLOSED LOW WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND
ENTER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL PHASE WITH A
CLIPPER COMING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A RAPID TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
ENHANCEMENT OF THE WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 40S. THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE 12 UTC
MODEL SUITE OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM ALL INDICATE A VERY WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THEREFORE...A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE LOWS AFTER THEY PHASE...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY EXIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
AND DRY GRASSLANDS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED AFTER COORDINATING WITH
LOCAL FIRE MANAGERS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND 52.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
SPREADING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND
THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
257 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
FOG TONIGHT AND A COOLER MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY FIELDS FROM THE 12 AND 18 UTC 4KM NAM
NEST AND THE 18-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12 UTC GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON PROPAGATING NORTH AND BEGINNING TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 07-09 UTC TONIGHT. MAINTAINED THE FOG
MENTION IN THE GRIDS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS NEEDED GIVEN THE SIGNAL IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION
VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MONDAY...AFTER A VERY MILD SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES FOR MOST FIELDS MONDAY WITH
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 40S WEST...AND 50S CENTRAL.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOG AND STRATUS IMPACTS MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT FROM THE CONSENSUS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LONG TERM INCLUDE OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...A COOLING TREND...AND WINDY CONDITIONS MID-WEEK.
BY MONDAY EVENING THERE IS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FRONT RANGE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER COLORADO. THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST AS THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...BLENDING
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA. THESE SCENARIOS TRANSLATE TO
A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE
AREA...ARRIVING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
PUSHING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN THE EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE
STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AS A SHORT WAVE LIFTS THROUGH SPLIT FLOW AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN - ESPECIALLY THE JAMES
VALLEY - AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
FOR TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...THOUGH STILL REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...WITH A WINTRY
MIX POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLDER AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO THE VALLEY.
ON WEDNESDAY...A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT DIVES THROUGH THE AREA.
STRONG WINDS ARE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE MIXING 50KT WINDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-DAY.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS EVOLVES. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MANY PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH MAINLY
RAIN DURING THE DAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IT THE WAKE OF THE STRONG WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT...WITH A FEW
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR TO FOLLOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES...WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN STRATUS/FOG AT
KJMS TONIGHT BY 07-09 UTC TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS TO KMOT/KBIS. KISN
MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED BY STRATUS LATE MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER
STRATUS DECK MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. KDIK LOOKS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH 18 UTC MONDAY...HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1102 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 6Z TAFs, VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all
sites overnight as mid and high clouds continue to increase.
Chances for rainfall will increase during the day Sunday, becoming
prevailing at all sites by Sunday evening. Nonetheless, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/
UPDATE...
Some minor updates were made to the forecast based on the latest
trends. See discussion below.
DISCUSSION...
SW flow aloft prevails over the region this evening in the
southern branch of the westerlies. Weak warm advection has
produced showers and a few lightning strikes over western north
TX...and this activity is progged by the HRRR to move into NE OK
between 09z and 12z. Other activity is forecast to spread into SE
OK from TX as well. Have expanded pops north to cover portions of
NE OK. Will keep showers as the weather type...due to a lack of
instability.
Lacy
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 0Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail at all sites
overnight as high clouds continue to increase. Chances for
rainfall will increase during the day Sunday, with VFR conditions
continuing.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Critical fire weather conditions will continue for the next few
hours across areas generally along and northwest of Interstate 44.
No expansion in the Red Flag Warning will be necessary despite the
low humidities just on the south side of the current warning, as
wind speeds are beginning to decrease, remaining below thresholds.
Rain chances will begin to increase after midnight tonight from
north to south, as the lead wave and associated warm advection
move into the region in the developing southwest flow aloft. Low
moisture initially will limit how much rain reaches the ground
tomorrow, but should result in a good wet bulb effect on
temperatures.
A strong low level jet will develop across the region Sunday
night and into Monday morning, bringing a more substantial batch
of rain into the day Monday. With increased moisture, there will
also be a slight increase in the instability and resultant thunder
chances.
The best heavy rain and severe weather potential will arrive
Monday night and into Tuesday, primarily across southeast Oklahoma
and into northwest Arkansas. Instability will be greatly increased
due to the approach of the main upper level system. Widespread
thunderstorms will likely spread northward into the area ahead of
the dryline in response to the strengthening low level jet
overnight. Precipitable water in the region is forecast to be in
the 1.75 to 2 inch range, which is well above normal for mid to
late November, and more than supportive of efficient rainfall
rates, especially with convection likely to be involved. A Flash
Flood Watch may become necessary in the next day or so.
The dry slot will move into the area from west to east during the
day Tuesday, with substantial rainfall likely to end by late
Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening. The chance of additional
precipitation associated with the wraparound as the upper low
passes through is not zero, mainly across northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas, but will forgo POPs in favor of an increase in
cloud cover.
The next system of interest comes toward the end of next week and
into next weekend, with small rain chances associated with the
front that should move through Saturday. There remains uncertainty
around this system so expect fine tuning in this portion of the
forecast over the coming days.
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR UPDATES TO THE
GRIDS...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR AVIATION PARAMETERS LATER IN THE
PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY SKY GRIDS. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOK GOOD
FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SLIGHTLY MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SKY
GRIDS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE WORDING OF PUBLIC FORECASTS.
AS OF 2 PM...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED A DEVELOPING
AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY. SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LLVL RH
INDICATES THAT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH...REACHING THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING...DRIFTING OVER THE
I-40 CORRIDOR BY DAY BREAK TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND LLVL SE WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN LOW TEMPERATURES 12 TO 14 DEGREES WARMER THAN VALUES OBSERVED
THIS MORNING. I WILL FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND
40 ACROSS THE NC ZONES TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY.
ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE
SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...LIKELY REMAINING THROUGH THE DAY. SFC WINDS ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ARE FORECAST TO BACK FROM THE NE AND
STRENGTHEN TO 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SE...SUPPORTING THICK UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHRAS. I
WILL INDICATE 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW
TO MID 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE ADVANCE OF A
STRONG LONG WAVE SYSTEM WITH MAIN COLD FRONT REACHING THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EC AND
GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH THE
EC IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT...THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE THE MOST PRECIPITATION.
SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONSIDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. FIRST...STRONG SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS IN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PLUS...WINDS MAY BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING OR ADVISORY...THOUGH IT IS NOT YET
CLEAR IF SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
HEADLINE WIND PRODUCT. 850MB GFS WINDS OF UP TO 60KTS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG WIND EVENT PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT. SECOND
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL HYDRO ISSUES WITH 3 OR 4 INCHES OF NEW RAIN IN
SOME AREAS WHICH ARE STILL VERY WET FROM RECENT RAINS. THIRDLY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OF OVER 50KTS GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP. CURRENT FORECAST SURFACE
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...AT BEST...GRID FORECAST IS BASED ON
MUCAPE...WHICH GIVES SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN ZONES AS THE SYSTEM EXIST THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...THOUGH ARE TYPICAL OF HEAVY RAIN SOUNDINGS WITH DEEP
SATURATION AND HIGH PW...SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN RISK WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
AND THE RESULTANT POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND FLOODING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH STEEP UPPER RIDGING GETTING PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST BY
A BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROF CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS WE GO
INTO THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROF WITH THE 12Z GFS RE-AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN TO OUR NORTH AGAIN ON
SAT AND THEN LIFTING THAT TROF AXIS TO THE NE ON SUN. THE ECMWF
TRIES TO INVOKE SOME DEGREE OF RE-AMPLIFICATION...BUT IT IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS THE GFS. AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS MAINTAINS
VERY BROAD UPPER TROFFING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF ACTUALLY INCREASES HEIGHTS OVER THE SE CONUS AS LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING DEVELOPS.
AT THE SFC...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT BY LATE THURS/EARLY FRI. THE HIGH
ON SAT AND SLIDES FARTHER SE AS ANOTHER REINFORCING HIGH MOVES INTO
THE CWFA FROM THE NW. IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT THE GFS CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY DEVELOP A SFC LOW OVER TO OUR NW LATE FRI/EARLY SAT AND MOVE
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO OUR DOORSTEP BY SAT EVENING. THIS
FRONTAL BNDY APPEARS DRY ON THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS AND BARELY
APPEARS AT ALL ON THE ECMWF. THEREFORE...I DONT EXPECT IT TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WX. WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING BACK IN ON SUN...THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST IS FAIR AND DRY.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH LOWS CLOSER TO
CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW VFR CU
FIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND THE SAVANNAH VALLEY IS DISSIPATING
BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME OF THAT MOISTURE SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH
OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY THE RAP HOLDING ONTO ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CONSTITUTE A CIG. CONTINUED TREND OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT KAND FOR
A PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE...LIFTING SLIGHTLY TO LOW VFR /4-5KFT/
THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE ALL OTHER SITES VFR WITH JUST INCREASING
HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WITH 7-10KFT CIGS PUSHING IN ON
TUESDAY. DID INCLUDE SCT035 AT KCLT AROUND SUNRISE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE BRIEF INCREASE IN LOW VFR MOISTURE...BUT AGAIN NO CIGS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT MAINLY CALM OVERNIGHT. SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...RESULTING IN INCREASING NE WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...5-10KT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY ENDING RESTRICTIONS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 55% LOW 57%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 57%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 55% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% LOW 55% LOW 55% LOW 57%
KAND HIGH 100% LOW 55% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/TDP
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...TDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
633 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADD SCATTERED SPRINKLES
TO THE FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AT TYS AND OQT OVER
THE PAST HOUR WITH THE CURRENT ACTIVITY THAT IS SHOWING UP ON
RADAR. PREVIOUSLY...THIS ACTIVITY WASN`T REACHING THE GROUND AS
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE STILL VERY DRY. EVEN THE
CURRENT RUN OF THE RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THIS DRY AIR TO BE IN
PLACE. BUT...AS STATED...PRECIP HAS BEEN REPORTED. DO NOT THINK
THIS WILL AMOUNT TO ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS. THUS
THE REASONING TO ONLY MENTION SPRINKLES. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS
AS THEY WERE RUNNING COOLER THAN WHAT WAS IN PREVIOUS GRIDS. ALL
OTHER ELEMENTS LOOK OKAY AT THIS TIME. WILL SEND NEW ZONES TO
INCLUDE SPRINKLE WORDING. SPRINKLES ARE MAINLY FOR THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND NORTHWARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 68 57 67 / 10 10 20 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 66 54 70 / 10 10 20 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 48 66 53 68 / 10 10 20 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 64 48 68 / 10 10 20 70
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
102 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...SWELLS HAVE GONE UP DRAMATICALLY TO FEET AND 8
SECOND PERIODS...WHICH PUTS AREA IN HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AGAIN.
THUS...WILL ISSUE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. ALTHOUGH THE TIDES MAY
NOT MAKE IT TO 2 FEET AT BOB HALL PIER...IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE SO
WILL NOT WAIT AND JUST GO WITH IT ESPECIALLY SINCE SWELLS HAVE
GONE UP SO MUCH. COULD HAVE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AGAIN ON MONDAY
SO WILL PUT IT OUT TIL THEN AND LET MID SHIFT DECIDE WHAT TO DO.
PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...AM EXPECTING NEAR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 16/01Z
AT KLRD...ALTHOUGH COULD GO TEMPO BEFORE THAT. ALSO...WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EXPECTED AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING TIL ABOUT
06Z...AM PUTTING A TEMPO -RA THERE. IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KLRD TOWARD
MORNING BUT GOING BACK TO MVFR ABOUT 15Z. FARTHER EAST (OTHER 3
TERMINALS)...AM NOT EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP UNTIL
NEAR OR AFTER 16/06Z...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AT TIMES AT KALI AND
KVCT BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. ALSO INCLUDED A VCSH AT KVCT FOR MONDAY.
CONCERNING WIND...AM EXPECTING THEM TO BE ESE FOR THE MOST PART
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN THEY ARE MORE SE/SSE AND HIGH IN SPEEDS.
FINALLY...COULD HAVE SOME MVFR BR AT KALI AND KVCT AFTER 16/06Z
BUT BEFORE 16/15Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD...AND
SKY COVER THROUGH 2ND PERIOD BASED ON FIRST PERIOD CHANGES.
OVERLLL THE FORECAST IS NOT IN TOO BAD OF SHAPE. THERE ARE SOME
VERY VERY WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR (AND I DO MEAN VERY VERY WEAK) AND
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH IN THE THIS CASE
THESE ARE TOO LIGHT TO BE PICKED UP BY KCRP RADAR (KCOT REPORTED
LIGHT RAIN EARLIER). HRRR IS SHOWING PERHAPS SOME WEAK ACTIVITY
LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS...SO THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
MAINTAINED A MENTION OF RAIN ALTHOUGH FOR NOW WILL ONLY KEEP THE
20 POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST MORE PROXIMATE TO THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH. COULD HAVE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AM DECREASING CLOUDS
THERE...WITH CLOUDS RETURNING LATER THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY AREA-WIDE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A MENTION
OF FOG AS ANY FOG WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR MENTIONING IN THE
ZONE/PUBLIC FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO PICK UP.
WILL MONTIOR BOB HALL PIER ONCE AGAIN FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW. LEVELS ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT
WINDS AND SWELLS ARE WEAKER AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A VERY BRIEF 2 FOOT LEVEL THERE
BUT FEELING IS THAT THE TIDES WILL BE JUST A TAD BELOW THAT.
AGAIN...WILL MONITOR.
OVERALL SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PARAMETERS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS. MARINE PACKAGE OVERALL WAS
FINE. PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ONLY PREVAIL AT LRD THIS MORNING...WITH OVC
DECKS BETWEEN 3500 AND 5 KFT AT ALI/VCT/CRP. ANTICIPATE LRD TO
REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CIGS MAY RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE PERIOD AT THE ALI/CRP/VCT
TERMINALS. POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF SOME IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT
VCT/ALI ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS. NE WINDS THIS MORE WILL BECOME
MORE ESE/SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALI/CRP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TODAY
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL REMAIN ONLY AROUND 20
PERCENT. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...AVERAGING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA.
STREAMER SHOWERS OFF THE GULF WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
WILL CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS THE WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES. ON
MONDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PW/S CLIMBING
TO AROUND 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA. FARTHER TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...CAPPING MAY BE TOO MUCH TO
OVERCOME. POPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT NEAR VICTORIA TO
NON MENTIONABLE NEAR LAREDO. IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT...TEMPS
ON MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE NORTH.
BOB HALL PIER BRIEFLY REACHED 2 FEET MSL DURING HIGH TIDE ON
SATURDAY DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER SWELLS. POSSIBILITY
EXISTS THAT 2 FEET MSL COULD BE REACHED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THIS...WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AS
CRITERIA MAY ONLY OCCUR FOR A BRIEF. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BY DAY SHIFT AND ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH A DEEPENING POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGGING ALONG THE ROCKIES AND PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD S TX MON NIGHT AND ACROSS S TX TUE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL BE ENTERING INTO THE NW CWA AROUND 12Z
TUE...REACHING THE COAST BETWEEN 16-18Z AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY MID AFTERNOON OR SO. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING BUT ONLY BY A FEW HOURS. AHD OF THE
BDRY...MOISTURE IS PROGD TO DEEPEN WITH THE GFS PROGGING NEAR 2
INCH PWATS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE... UPPER JET/DIFFLUENCE...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND SHEAR COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO SVR STORMS TUE MORNING. THE
CAVEAT WILL BE A STRONG LLJ THAT IS ALSO PROGD TO DVLP...WHICH
BRINGS IN VERY WARM LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STRENGTHENS THE CAP
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST RUNS SHOW THIS CAP DVLPG ALL THE WAY NE
INTO THE VCT AREA. THE CAP IS PROGD TO WEAKEN AS THE BDRY PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE GFS SHOWS THE 850MB FRONT LAGGING BEHIND
THE SFC FRONT BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR SVR STORMS TO DVLP...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE CWA WHERE CAP
IS ALREADY WEAKER. AM EXPECTING THAT AS THE BDRY APPROACHES THE
COAST...STORMS WILL STRENGTHEN FARTHER S ALONG THE
LINE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MARINE ZONES WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
STRONGEST AND LITTLE CAP. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NE CWA FOR DAY 3/TUE. WILL NOT MENTION SVR
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY OF HOW STRONG
THE CAP WILL BE THUS HINDERING STORM DVLPMNT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 71 83 75 79 / 10 10 20 20 50
VICTORIA 77 67 81 72 73 / 10 20 50 50 80
LAREDO 79 68 87 68 76 / 10 10 10 20 10
ALICE 82 68 87 73 79 / 10 10 20 20 40
ROCKPORT 77 69 80 74 76 / 10 20 30 30 70
COTULLA 75 66 83 64 73 / 20 10 20 50 20
KINGSVILLE 83 70 87 74 79 / 10 10 20 20 40
NAVY CORPUS 79 73 82 75 78 / 10 20 20 20 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1156 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...AM EXPECTING NEAR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 16/01Z
AT KLRD...ALTHOUGH COULD GO TEMPO BEFORE THAT. ALSO...WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EXPECTED AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING TIL ABOUT
06Z...AM PUTTING A TEMPO -RA THERE. IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KLRD TOWARD
MORNING BUT GOING BACK TO MVFR ABOUT 15Z. FARTHER EAST (OTHER 3
TERMINALS)...AM NOT EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP UNTIL
NEAR OR AFTER 16/06Z...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AT TIMES AT KALI AND
KVCT BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. ALSO INCLUDED A VCSH AT KVCT FOR MONDAY.
CONCERNING WIND...AM EXPECTING THEM TO BE ESE FOR THE MOST PART
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN THEY ARE MORE SE/SSE AND HIGH IN SPEEDS.
FINALLY...COULD HAVE SOME MVFR BR AT KALI AND KVCT AFTER 16/06Z
BUT BEFORE 16/15Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD...AND
SKY COVER THROUGH 2ND PERIOD BASED ON FIRST PERIOD CHANGES.
OVERLLL THE FORECAST IS NOT IN TOO BAD OF SHAPE. THERE ARE SOME
VERY VERY WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR (AND I DO MEAN VERY VERY WEAK) AND
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH IN THE THIS CASE
THESE ARE TOO LIGHT TO BE PICKED UP BY KCRP RADAR (KCOT REPORTED
LIGHT RAIN EARLIER). HRRR IS SHOWING PERHAPS SOME WEAK ACTIVITY
LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS...SO THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
MAINTAINED A MENTION OF RAIN ALTHOUGH FOR NOW WILL ONLY KEEP THE
20 POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST MORE PROXIMATE TO THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH. COULD HAVE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AM DECREASING CLOUDS
THERE...WITH CLOUDS RETURNING LATER THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY AREA-WIDE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A MENTION
OF FOG AS ANY FOG WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR MENTIONING IN THE
ZONE/PUBLIC FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO PICK UP.
WILL MONTIOR BOB HALL PIER ONCE AGAIN FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW. LEVELS ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT
WINDS AND SWELLS ARE WEAKER AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A VERY BRIEF 2 FOOT LEVEL THERE
BUT FEELING IS THAT THE TIDES WILL BE JUST A TAD BELOW THAT.
AGAIN...WILL MONITOR.
OVERALL SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PARAMETERS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS. MARINE PACKAGE OVERALL WAS
FINE. PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ONLY PREVAIL AT LRD THIS MORNING...WITH OVC
DECKS BETWEEN 3500 AND 5 KFT AT ALI/VCT/CRP. ANTICIPATE LRD TO
REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CIGS MAY RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE PERIOD AT THE ALI/CRP/VCT
TERMINALS. POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF SOME IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT
VCT/ALI ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS. NE WINDS THIS MORE WILL BECOME
MORE ESE/SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALI/CRP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TODAY
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL REMAIN ONLY AROUND 20
PERCENT. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...AVERAGING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA.
STREAMER SHOWERS OFF THE GULF WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
WILL CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS THE WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES. ON
MONDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PW/S CLIMBING
TO AROUND 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA. FARTHER TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...CAPPING MAY BE TOO MUCH TO
OVERCOME. POPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT NEAR VICTORIA TO
NON MENTIONABLE NEAR LAREDO. IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT...TEMPS
ON MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE NORTH.
BOB HALL PIER BRIEFLY REACHED 2 FEET MSL DURING HIGH TIDE ON
SATURDAY DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER SWELLS. POSSIBILITY
EXISTS THAT 2 FEET MSL COULD BE REACHED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THIS...WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AS
CRITERIA MAY ONLY OCCUR FOR A BRIEF. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BY DAY SHIFT AND ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH A DEEPENING POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGGING ALONG THE ROCKIES AND PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD S TX MON NIGHT AND ACROSS S TX TUE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL BE ENTERING INTO THE NW CWA AROUND 12Z
TUE...REACHING THE COAST BETWEEN 16-18Z AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY MID AFTERNOON OR SO. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING BUT ONLY BY A FEW HOURS. AHD OF THE
BDRY...MOISTURE IS PROGD TO DEEPEN WITH THE GFS PROGGING NEAR 2
INCH PWATS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE... UPPER JET/DIFFLUENCE...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND SHEAR COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO SVR STORMS TUE MORNING. THE
CAVEAT WILL BE A STRONG LLJ THAT IS ALSO PROGD TO DVLP...WHICH
BRINGS IN VERY WARM LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STRENGTHENS THE CAP
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST RUNS SHOW THIS CAP DVLPG ALL THE WAY NE
INTO THE VCT AREA. THE CAP IS PROGD TO WEAKEN AS THE BDRY PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE GFS SHOWS THE 850MB FRONT LAGGING BEHIND
THE SFC FRONT BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR SVR STORMS TO DVLP...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE CWA WHERE CAP
IS ALREADY WEAKER. AM EXPECTING THAT AS THE BDRY APPROACHES THE
COAST...STORMS WILL STRENGTHEN FARTHER S ALONG THE
LINE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MARINE ZONES WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
STRONGEST AND LITTLE CAP. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NE CWA FOR DAY 3/TUE. WILL NOT MENTION SVR
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY OF HOW STRONG
THE CAP WILL BE THUS HINDERING STORM DVLPMNT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 71 85 76 79 / 10 10 20 20 50
VICTORIA 77 67 81 72 73 / 10 20 50 50 80
LAREDO 79 68 88 70 76 / 10 10 10 20 10
ALICE 82 68 87 73 79 / 10 10 20 20 40
ROCKPORT 77 72 80 74 76 / 10 20 30 30 70
COTULLA 75 67 84 62 73 / 20 10 20 50 20
KINGSVILLE 83 70 87 75 79 / 10 10 20 20 40
NAVY CORPUS 79 73 82 76 78 / 10 20 20 20 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
956 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD...AND
SKY COVER THROUGH 2ND PERIOD BASED ON FIRST PERIOD CHANGES.
OVERLLL THE FORECAST IS NOT IN TOO BAD OF SHAPE. THERE ARE SOME
VERY VERY WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR (AND I DO MEAN VERY VERY WEAK) AND
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH IN THE THIS CASE
THESE ARE TOO LIGHT TO BE PICKED UP BY KCRP RADAR (KCOT REPORTED
LIGHT RAIN EARLIER). HRRR IS SHOWING PERHAPS SOME WEAK ACTIVITY
LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS...SO THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
MAINTAINED A MENTION OF RAIN ALTHOUGH FOR NOW WILL ONLY KEEP THE
20 POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST MORE PROXIMATE TO THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH. COULD HAVE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AM DECREASING CLOUDS
THERE...WITH CLOUDS RETURNING LATER THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY AREA-WIDE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A MENTION
OF FOG AS ANY FOG WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR MENTIONING IN THE
ZONE/PUBLIC FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO PICK UP.
WILL MONTIOR BOB HALL PIER ONCE AGAIN FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW. LEVELS ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT
WINDS AND SWELLS ARE WEAKER AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A VERY BRIEF 2 FOOT LEVEL THERE
BUT FEELING IS THAT THE TIDES WILL BE JUST A TAD BELOW THAT.
AGAIN...WILL MONITOR.
OVERALL SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PARAMETERS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS. MARINE PACKAGE OVERALL WAS
FINE. PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ONLY PREVAIL AT LRD THIS MORNING...WITH OVC
DECKS BETWEEN 3500 AND 5 KFT AT ALI/VCT/CRP. ANTICIPATE LRD TO
REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CIGS MAY RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE PERIOD AT THE ALI/CRP/VCT
TERMINALS. POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF SOME IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT
VCT/ALI ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS. NE WINDS THIS MORE WILL BECOME
MORE ESE/SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALI/CRP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TODAY
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL REMAIN ONLY AROUND 20
PERCENT. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...AVERAGING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA.
STREAMER SHOWERS OFF THE GULF WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
WILL CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS THE WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES. ON
MONDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PW/S CLIMBING
TO AROUND 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA. FARTHER TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...CAPPING MAY BE TOO MUCH TO
OVERCOME. POPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT NEAR VICTORIA TO
NON MENTIONABLE NEAR LAREDO. IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT...TEMPS
ON MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE NORTH.
BOB HALL PIER BRIEFLY REACHED 2 FEET MSL DURING HIGH TIDE ON
SATURDAY DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER SWELLS. POSSIBILITY
EXISTS THAT 2 FEET MSL COULD BE REACHED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THIS...WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AS
CRITERIA MAY ONLY OCCUR FOR A BRIEF. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BY DAY SHIFT AND ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH A DEEPENING POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGGING ALONG THE ROCKIES AND PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD S TX MON NIGHT AND ACROSS S TX TUE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL BE ENTERING INTO THE NW CWA AROUND 12Z
TUE...REACHING THE COAST BETWEEN 16-18Z AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY MID AFTERNOON OR SO. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING BUT ONLY BY A FEW HOURS. AHD OF THE
BDRY...MOISTURE IS PROGD TO DEEPEN WITH THE GFS PROGGING NEAR 2
INCH PWATS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE... UPPER JET/DIFFLUENCE...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND SHEAR COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO SVR STORMS TUE MORNING. THE
CAVEAT WILL BE A STRONG LLJ THAT IS ALSO PROGD TO DVLP...WHICH
BRINGS IN VERY WARM LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STRENGTHENS THE CAP
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST RUNS SHOW THIS CAP DVLPG ALL THE WAY NE
INTO THE VCT AREA. THE CAP IS PROGD TO WEAKEN AS THE BDRY PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE GFS SHOWS THE 850MB FRONT LAGGING BEHIND
THE SFC FRONT BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR SVR STORMS TO DVLP...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE CWA WHERE CAP
IS ALREADY WEAKER. AM EXPECTING THAT AS THE BDRY APPROACHES THE
COAST...STORMS WILL STRENGTHEN FARTHER S ALONG THE
LINE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MARINE ZONES WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
STRONGEST AND LITTLE CAP. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NE CWA FOR DAY 3/TUE. WILL NOT MENTION SVR
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY OF HOW STRONG
THE CAP WILL BE THUS HINDERING STORM DVLPMNT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 71 85 76 79 / 10 10 20 20 50
VICTORIA 77 67 81 72 73 / 10 20 50 50 80
LAREDO 79 68 88 70 76 / 10 10 10 20 10
ALICE 82 68 87 73 79 / 10 10 20 20 40
ROCKPORT 77 72 80 74 76 / 10 20 30 30 70
COTULLA 75 67 84 62 73 / 20 10 20 50 20
KINGSVILLE 83 70 87 75 79 / 10 10 20 20 40
NAVY CORPUS 79 73 82 76 78 / 10 20 20 20 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
315 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL NOVEMBER DAY IS IN STORE FOR REGION TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY THOUGH FOR THE WORK
WEEK. A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TODAY WITH
RIDGING OCCURRING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF
THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY SET TO
EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE REGION WITH THE FIRST SET TO
ARRIVE ON MONDAY. FOR TONIGHT...PLAN ON INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL MAINLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. THE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTERN ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE ONLY WEAK LIFT REMAINS IN ITS WAKE SO WE SHOULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL OR AT LEAST SEE THE LIGHT RAIN SWITCH
OVER TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE. THE NEXT WAVE SET TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WILL BE STRONGER AND BRING GULF MOISTURE WITH IT. A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS KANSAS/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
LIFTS NORTHWARD. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1 TO 1.3
RANGE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PUMPED INTO THE REGION WITH DEW
POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. IT APPEARS THAT
THE TIMEFRAME FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THIS PERIOD. ALSO
THINKING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME MAY NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH. MOST AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL AROUND 3/4
INCH OF RAINFALL WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN SEEING AROUND 1.5 INCHES...POSSIBLY MORE. THE
LOW THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
RACING EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COOL NORTHWEST FLOW THEN LOOKS TO BE
THE RULE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF BRINGS A SYSTEM ACROSS IOWA
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN NEXT SATURDAY BUT THIS IS ABSENT IN THE
GFS. THEY ARE BOTH ADVERTISING A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS TO LOCATION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE WEEK...HAVE LEANED TOWARD A MODEL
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
THE 15.00Z NAM AND 15.03Z RAP CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WIND SHEAR AT BOTH SITES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH A
30 KNOT SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOUT 1500 FEET
AND PLAN TO CONTINUE THIS THROUGH 12Z. MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING
TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND THIS LOOKS
TO CAUSE VFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1126 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM SAT NOV 14 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A
BROAD/FLATTENED MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS INCLUDING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. FLOW
ALOFT WAS TAPPING MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC RESULTING IN SPORADIC
BOUTS OF CIRRUS CLOUD ACROSS OUR AREA. OTHER THAN THAT...A VERY
QUIET/PLEASANT AUTUMN DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
MIDDLE 50S.
QUIET/PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE REGION.
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 10-12C
RANGE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
THINGS CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN EMBEDDED
WEAK TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM SAT NOV 14 2015
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY/DEFINITE MONDAY MORNING AS THAT MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...PERHAPS TAPERING OFF SOME IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF
THE BETTER FORCING OF THE WAVE. DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS MONDAY STILL LOOK TO TOP OFF IN THE
LOWER 50S OR SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO VERSUS RAIN AS MOISTURE PILES UP UNDER A
STRENGTHENING 850MB INVERSION. STILL LOOKS WET NONETHELESS.
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING STACKED MID-LEVEL/SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS...AND WITH VERY LIMITED 0-6KM MUCAPE...PERHAPS A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL
AS GULF MOISTURE CORRIDOR REMAINS WIDE OPEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1-1.25 INCH RANGE. TUESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARM AIR BEING PULLED IN AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW. LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE 50S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
RAIN CHANCE CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
NORTH INTO CANADA AND WRAP-AROUND/DEFORMATION MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE COLUMN MAY COOL ENOUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR PERHAPS SOME MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT APPEARS VERY LIGHT AS
THAT DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WANING PHASE.
SOME LINGERING MIXED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THURSDAY AS A WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...CHILLIER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN AS HIGHS
TOP OFF IN THE 40S.
ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR CONTINUED RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANCES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
MODELS SHOW A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY LOOK TO BE MIDDLE 30S TOT HE LOWER
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
THE 15.00Z NAM AND 15.03Z RAP CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WIND SHEAR AT BOTH SITES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH A
30 KNOT SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOUT 1500 FEET
AND PLAN TO CONTINUE THIS THROUGH 12Z. MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING
TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND THIS LOOKS
TO CAUSE VFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1017 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND SLOWER WITH THE TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY
12Z TUES. GETTING A BIT OF A BREAK ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT
AS UPPER LOW SKIRTS TO OUR SOUTH...THIS SHOULD FILL IN AGAIN AS
INTENSE TROWAL WRAPS UP AND SPREADS EASTWARD AROUND NORTHWEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW. DID A MAJOR OVERHAUL TO HEADLINES...BRINGING
MORE OF THE RATON MESA REGION AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR
WALSENBURG TO TRINIDAD TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. INITIAL WARM
START...AND SLOW COOL DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS IS MAKING WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT DECISIONS DIFFICULT. EXTENSIVE WIND AND A PERIOD
OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WARM GROUND MAY
PREVENT A LOT OF LIFTING OF THE FRESH SNOW LIMITING POOR
VISIBILITIES TO DIRECTLY UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. HOWEVER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...RUNNING FROM
KIOWA...PROWERS...BENT...SOUTHERN OTERO AND NORTHWEST BACA
COUNTIES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AS IT COULD BE VERY
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES IF TEMPERATURES CAN STAY COLD
ENOUGH ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE SPREAD THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES OUT TO ALL OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LOCATIONS UNDER THE TROWAL OUT THAT WAY FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WARNING AT A LATER POINT. THESE AREAS LOOK
TO GET HIT HARDEST STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
THE MAIN UPDATE HAS BEEN TO STRENGTHEN WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS. ADDED A HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS OFF THE PALMER
DIVIDE...GENERALLY AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON THE PLAINS. THE
LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTH WINDS GUSTING IN
EXCESS OF 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW TO
PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND VERY STRONG CROSS WINDS ON EAST WEST
HIGHWAYS.
ALSO CANCELED THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO WESTERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME.
THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS OVER BACA AND
PROWERS COUNTIES THROUGH 9 PM...BUT SHOULD NOT BECOME STRONG OR
SEVERE.
OTHERWISE...SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS APPEAR TO BE OK AT THIS
TIME BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THERE. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...
CURRENTLY...
700 MB CIRCULATION LIKELY OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT 2 PM AS PER
RADAR AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION ALONG WITH STRONGER STORMS NOTED
OVER THE PLAINS. 500 MB CIRCULATION WAS JUST SW OF THE 4 CORNERS AS
PER WATER VAPOR. NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
DIVERGENT REGION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO. A WIND SHIFT
LINE WAS NOTED ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS THE PUEBLO/EL PASO COUNTY
LINE...MOVING SOUTH.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP BY 7 TO 8 PM AS 700 MB WIND STEADILY INCREASE. HRRR BY
MIDNIGHT SHOWS 700 MB WINDS OF 70 KNTS OVER N EL PASO COUNTY. HEAVY
WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND LAST INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW IS LIKELY AND GUSTS TO 50
MPH ARE LIKELY. SNOW DRIFTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND TRAVEL WILL BE
DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DVD.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE 700 MB CIRCULATION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL LIKELY FAVOR ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. FOR THIS
REASON I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR EASTER LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY. TOTAL ACCUMS THIS REGION SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 INCHES.
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO FALL ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE S MTNS...BUT WITH 700 MB WINDS HAVING A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT
(VS NORTHEASTERLY)...EXCESSIVELY HEAVY SNOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
OVERALL 6 TO 10 INCHES IS LIKELY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT MTN TOP.
ALONG THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY FROM FREMONT TO THE KS BORDER SHOULD
SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIMIT
ACCUMS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WINDS...HAVE INCLUDED MOST
OF THESE REGIONS IN A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. THE SNOW OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE E PLAINS SHOULD BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING
AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
STRONG WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
THE PLAINS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WIDESPREAD. STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MTNS...AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST...FLOW WILL
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE SW MTNS...AND SNOW RATES SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS REGION.
TUESDAY...
STORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. MAIN CONCERN IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT E LAS ANIMAS
WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW BUT AREAS FROM LAMAR AND SPRINGFIELD I AM NOT SO
CONFIDENT AS STORM WILL BE LIFTING OUT AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE ALL
THAT COLD. HOWEVER...IF EC VERIFIES WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THIS
WILL PUT THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW. WILL
DISCUSS THIS CONCERN WITH THE EVENING SHIFT AND ALLOW THEM TO ADJUST
THE FCST AS NEEDED.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION SHOULD BE
LESSENING BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STILL BE
AN ISSUE AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. I
WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME SUN ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN OVER ALL OF THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE LIKELY ALL AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN. PRIMARILY LONGER TERM ISSUES INCLUDES TIMING OF
DEPARTING SNOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING FORECAST DISTRICT
...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.
RECENT LONGER TERM PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT VIGOROUS CLOSED UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVE INTO IOWA BY
NOON WEDNESDAY.
HAVE DEPICTED CONTINUED GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
INTO TUESDAY EVENING(PRIMARILY EASTERN SECTIONS) WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING OVER MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY
12Z WEDNESDAY.
THEN A RETURN TO BASICALLY TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES) SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT MONDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES RUNNING WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF
MID TO LATE NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND NEXT MONDAY...WHILE COOLEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED
SATURDAY. FINALLY...MOST AGGRESSIVE GRADIENT WINDS DURING THE
LONGER TERM ARE PROJECTED FROM TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
KALS...SNOW WILL PRODUCE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 10Z
THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TO
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO NEAR 30 KTS DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
KCOS AND KPUB...SNOW IS FILLING IN ACROSS KCOS AND SOUTH OF KPUB.
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AT KCOS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH BLOWING SNOW AN ISSUE. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA RUNWAYS BY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR
KPUB...DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST SNOW OUT OF KPUB
BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IF SNOW CAN
MOVE OVER KPUB...REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KPUB. BOTH SITES WILL SEE IMPROVEMENTS BY LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ098-
099.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ085-086-089-093-
095-097.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ089-093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-061-
063-072-076-079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ065-067-
069>071-078-086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ095>097.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-073.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ074-075-081-
082-087-088.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ066-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ064.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
914 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND SLOWER WITH THE TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY
12Z TUES. GETTING A BIT OF A BREAK ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT
AS UPPER LOW SKIRTS TO OUR SOUTH...THIS SHOULD FILL IN AGAIN AS
INTENSE TROWAL WRAPS UP AND SPREADS EASTWARD AROUND NORTHWEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW. DID A MAJOR OVERHALL TO HEADLINES...BRINGING
MORE OF THE RATON MESA REGION AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR
WALSENBURG TO TRINIDAD TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. INITIAL WARM
START...AND SLOW COOL DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS IS MAKING WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT DECISIONS DIFFICULT. EXTENSIVE WIND AND A PERIOD
OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WARM GROUND MAY
PREVENT A LOT OF LIFTING OF THE FRESH SNOW LIMITING POOR
VISIBILITIES TO DIRECTLY UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. HOWEVER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...RUNNING FROM
KIOWA...PROWERS...BENT...SOUTHERN OTERO AND NORTHWEST BACA
COUNTIES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AS IT COULD BE VERY
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES IF TEMPERATURES CAN STAY COLD
ENOUGH ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE SPREAD THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES OUT TO ALL OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LOCATIONS UNDER THE TROWAL OUT THAT WAY FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WARNING AT A LATER POINT. THESE AREAS LOOK
TO GET HIT HARDEST STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
THE MAIN UPDATE HAS BEEN TO STRENGTHEN WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS. ADDED A HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS OFF THE PALMER
DIVIDE...GENERALLY AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON THE PLAINS. THE
LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTH WINDS GUSTING IN
EXCESS OF 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW TO
PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND VERY STRONG CROSS WINDS ON EAST WEST
HIGHWAYS.
ALSO CANCELED THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO WESTERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME.
THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS OVER BACA AND
PROWERS COUNTIES THROUGH 9 PM...BUT SHOULD NOT BECOME STRONG OR
SEVERE.
OTHERWISE...SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS APPEAR TO BE OK AT THIS
TIME BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THERE. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...
CURRENTLY...
700 MB CIRCULATION LIKELY OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT 2 PM AS PER
RADAR AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION ALONG WITH STRONGER STORMS NOTED
OVER THE PLAINS. 500 MB CIRCULATION WAS JUST SW OF THE 4 CORNERS AS
PER WATER VAPOR. NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
DIVERGENT REGION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO. A WIND SHIFT
LINE WAS NOTED ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS THE PUEBLO/EL PASO COUNTY
LINE...MOVING SOUTH.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP BY 7 TO 8 PM AS 700 MB WIND STEADILY INCREASE. HRRR BY
MIDNIGHT SHOWS 700 MB WINDS OF 70 KNTS OVER N EL PASO COUNTY. HEAVY
WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND LAST INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW IS LIKELY AND GUSTS TO 50
MPH ARE LIKELY. SNOW DRIFTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND TRAVEL WILL BE
DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DVD.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE 700 MB CIRCULATION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL LIKELY FAVOR ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. FOR THIS
REASON I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR EASTER LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY. TOTAL ACCUMS THIS REGION SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 INCHES.
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO FALL ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE S MTNS...BUT WITH 700 MB WINDS HAVING A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT
(VS NORTHEASTERLY)...EXCESSIVELY HEAVY SNOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
OVERALL 6 TO 10 INCHES IS LIKELY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT MTN TOP.
ALONG THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY FROM FREMONT TO THE KS BORDER SHOULD
SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIMIT
ACCUMS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WINDS...HAVE INCLUDED MOST
OF THESE REGIONS IN A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. THE SNOW OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE E PLAINS SHOULD BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING
AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
STRONG WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
THE PLAINS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WIDESPREAD. STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MTNS...AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST...FLOW WILL
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE SW MTNS...AND SNOW RATES SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS REGION.
TUESDAY...
STORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. MAIN CONCERN IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT E LAS ANIMAS
WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW BUT AREAS FROM LAMAR AND SPRINGFIELD I AM NOT SO
CONFIDENT AS STORM WILL BE LIFTING OUT AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE ALL
THAT COLD. HOWEVER...IF EC VERIFIES WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THIS
WILL PUT THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW. WILL
DISCUSS THIS CONCERN WITH THE EVENING SHIFT AND ALLOW THEM TO ADJUST
THE FCST AS NEEDED.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION SHOULD BE
LESSENING BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STILL BE
AN ISSUE AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. I
WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME SUN ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN OVER ALL OF THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE LIKELY ALL AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN. PRIMARILY LONGER TERM ISSUES INCLUDES TIMING OF
DEPARTING SNOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING FORECAST DISTRICT
...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.
RECENT LONGER TERM PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT VIGOROUS CLOSED UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVE INTO IOWA BY
NOON WEDNESDAY.
HAVE DEPICTED CONTINUED GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
INTO TUESDAY EVENING(PRIMARILY EASTERN SECTIONS) WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING OVER MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY
12Z WEDNESDAY.
THEN A RETURN TO BASICALLY TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES) SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT MONDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES RUNNING WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF
MID TO LATE NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND NEXT MONDAY...WHILE COOLEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED
SATURDAY. FINALLY...MOST AGGRESSIVE GRADIENT WINDS DURING THE
LONGER TERM ARE PROJECTED FROM TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015
EXTREME NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AT KCOS AND KPUB DURING
THE NEXT 24. PEAK WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 KNOTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS...BUT THE GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE COLORADO SPRINGS REGION WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH
VERY HIGH AMOUNTS N OF THE AIRPORT AND MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS S OF THE
AIRPORT. OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING ABOUT 5-6 INCHES AT KCOS...BUT
THIS IS OUR BEST SCIENTIFIC GUESS.
KPUB MAY ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP....ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OVER KPUB SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE ANY SNOWFALL AT KPUB.
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE AT KPUB THROUGH THE NEXT 24H.
GUSTY N WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT KALS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE AS STRONG. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KALS THIS
EVENING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ098-
099.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ085-086-089-093-
095-097.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ089-093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-061-
063-072-076-079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ065-067-
069>071-078-086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ095>097.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-073.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ074-075-081-
082-087-088.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ066-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ064.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
327 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TO IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SPOTTIER SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS
BAND OF RAIN WHICH ARE MOVING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE U.P. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TRENDS
FOLLOWED BY MARINE ISSUES.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER FAR WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA
DURING THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SPOTTY
OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONGER FORCING DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WEAKENS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY NOT
MAKE IT INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA THOUGH.
SOUTHEAST WINDS CIRCULATING AROUND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC WILL KEEP A FEED OF DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR IN THIS
PORTION OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WITH A BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND...LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT WILL
BOOST PWATS THROUGH THE DAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UPPER PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING IN
A WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME. THEN THE NAM/GFS BRING IN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
STRENGTHENS DURING THIS TIME...WHICH ARGUES FOR HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL
BE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING FROM 986MB AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY TO 969MB BY 06Z THURSDAY...AS IT PHASES WITH A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WINDY SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK ACROSS THE U.P.. BEFORE THE WIND ARRIVES...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. AN INVERSION SETUP BY
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 925MB WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN CHECK ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 25KTS AND
MAYBE A FEW GUSTS TO 30-35KTS OVER THE EASTERN U.P.. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE THE LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A WHILE (AT LEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND).
AS THOSE SHOWERS DEPART...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP WEST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO
THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THERE MAY BE SOME
SHOWERS (TRANSITIONING TO SNOW) ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA AND THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE (FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA) MOVES THROUGH THE U.P. THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WINDS. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO SHIFT THE WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST...LIKELY
LIMITING LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL OVER THE KEWEENAW ON THURSDAY (ALONG
WITH THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER). THUS...THE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY AND IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A GREAT SETUP (DEEPENING
LOW...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY WARM LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS) FOR AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY
WINDS FOR THE KEWEENAW AND POSSIBLY SOME THE OTHER SHORELINE AREAS
OF THE WESTERN U.P.. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH END WIND
ADVISORY...BUT THINK THE KEWEENAW COULD BE NEARING HIGH WIND WARNING
VALUES TOWARDS THURSDAY EVENING (BETWEEN 21-00Z) AS A SECONDARY
TROUGH DROPS SLIDES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND BRUSHES THAT
AREA WITH STRONGER PRESSURE RISES AS WINDS TURN TO THE WEST. ONCE
THAT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THAT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE WINDS WILL BRING A BETTER LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SETUP TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM -8C AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON
THURSDAY TO -12C BY MID DAY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILE WILL IMPROVE...LOWERING CEILINGS TOWARDS 3KFT VS
THE 4-5KFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 10KFT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS THERE...BUT THINK THE WINDS (STILL
35-40KTS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY) WILL LIMIT RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE AND ALSO FRACTURE THE FLAKES AS THEY FALL (KEEPING
RATIOS LOWER THAN WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED IN LAKE EFFECT).
THUS...NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW
BUT THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL FLAKES WILL LEAD TO
GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
ALSO FOR FRIDAY...INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO THE 6 TO MAYBE 8KFT
RANGE...WHICH WILL START TO INHIBIT THE CLOUD DEPTH FOR STRONGER
LAKE EFFECT WITH BASES STILL LOOKING TO BE AROUND 3KFT.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND. THEIR DIFFERENCES ARE TIED TO THE STRENGTH AND
HOW WRAPPED UP THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE FEATURES. THE 00Z
GFS MAINTAINS ITS CONSISTENT IDEA OF A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY. THIS IDEA HAS BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS WITH THE GEM AND
00Z ECMWF. LOOKING AT THE BIG 3 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ONLY SEE LIMITED
SUPPORT OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH LEADS
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT STRONGER SOLUTION. WHILE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE AROUND -12 TO -14C AND WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. IT IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND
DEALING WITH COARSER MODELS (TO GET TOO GOOD OF A HANDLE ON THE
MOISTURE FIELDS)...BUT THE SETUP COULD BE DECENT FOR MODERATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BELTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEPART SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LEADING TO A WARMING TREND AND
DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF LOW PRES ORGANIZING OVER THE
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS
DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. AT ALL TERMINALS...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET
OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN LLWS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE OF A DIRECTIONAL CHANGE
OF WIND IN THE SHEAR LAYER. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD WILL
SPREAD TO KCMX LATER IN THE NIGHT AND TO KSAW THIS MORNING. WITH
SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...IFR OR EVEN
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT KSAW DUE
TO MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED
AT 346 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SHORELINES EXPOSED TO WINDS FROM THESE DIRECTIONS WILL
SEE WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET DEVELOP...WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION...EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN WATERS WILL SEE NEAR GALE FORCE
GUSTS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS LOOK A LITTLE TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
GALES TO OCCUR HOWEVER.
THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD GALES ARE
LIKELY. NEAR STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SL/MPC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1201 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TO IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SPOTTIER SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS
BAND OF RAIN WHICH ARE MOVING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE U.P. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TRENDS
FOLLOWED BY MARINE ISSUES.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER FAR WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA
DURING THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SPOTTY
OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONGER FORCING DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WEAKENS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY NOT
MAKE IT INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA THOUGH.
SOUTHEAST WINDS CIRCULATING AROUND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC WILL KEEP A FEED OF DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR IN THIS
PORTION OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WITH A BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND...LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT WILL
BOOST PWATS THROUGH THE DAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UPPER PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING IN
A WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME. THEN THE NAM/GFS BRING IN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
STRENGTHENS DURING THIS TIME...WHICH ARGUES FOR HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FORM KANSAS TOWARDS WISCONSIN AND
BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST
TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EXTENT TO WITH PHASING OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY. THIS ALSO EFFECT
HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES AND HOW SOON LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BEGINS.
A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS WILL BRING LOTS OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA WITH THE PROSPECT OF SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA SHOULD RECEIVE THE BEST RAINS WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DESPITE THE
RAIN.
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND
SPEEDS QUICKLY TOWARDS JAMES BAY. IN FACT THE DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE AREA QUALIFIES AS EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS AND WILL PRODUCE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL PRODUCE STRONG WEST WINDS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 40 MPH LIKELY OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WITH 50 MPH WINDS OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS COMES MUCH COLDER AIR. 850MB TEMPERATURES
DROP TO -12C BY THURSDAY EVENING AND REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIND DIRECTION
AS IT WILL BE LARGELY WESTERLY...WHICH FAVORS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY THERE THURSDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE KEWEENAW WITH A FEW INCHES LIKELY OVER THE
COURSE OF A FEW DAYS.
THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING
MILDER AIR IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF LOW PRES ORGANIZING OVER THE
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS
DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. AT ALL TERMINALS...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET
OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN LLWS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE OF A DIRECTIONAL CHANGE
OF WIND IN THE SHEAR LAYER. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD WILL
SPREAD TO KCMX LATER IN THE NIGHT AND TO KSAW THIS MORNING. WITH
SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...IFR OR EVEN
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT KSAW DUE
TO MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED
AT 346 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SHORELINES EXPOSED TO WINDS FROM THESE DIRECTIONS WILL
SEE WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET DEVELOP...WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION...EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN WATERS WILL SEE NEAR GALE FORCE
GUSTS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS LOOK A LITTLE TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
GALES TO OCCUR HOWEVER.
THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD GALES ARE
LIKELY. NEAR STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SL/MPC
LONG TERM...RDM
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
328 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
THE SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 06Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO. THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE PUMPING MOIST AIR TOWARD THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE
MAIN CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHWEST JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
THE MODELS INDICATE SOMETHING VERY INTERESTING WILL HAPPEN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SFC WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN STRONG
ALL DAY AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET. A HEAVY
SNOW BAND OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR RATES SHOULD FORM ACROSS SWRN
NEB THIS MORNING AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO NCNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW
WOULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT. WPC HAS RAISED THEIR SNOWFALL FORECAST TO 8 TO 15 PLUS
INCHES ACROSS SWRN NEB NORTHEAST THROUGH LINCOLN AND EVEN INTO LOGAN
COUNTY.
A BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. LOGAN COUNTY IS
UNDER REVIEW FOR AN UPGRADE AT THIS POINT PENDING THE PROGRESS OF
THIS WEATHER SITUATION. VIRTUALLY EVERY MODEL...9 OF THEM...FORECAST
500M AGL WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SFC WINDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH GUSTING TO 40 TO 45 MPH.
SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR THIS FORECAST. COLD AIR IS POURING
INTO WRN NEB WITH ALL AREAS IN SNOW WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THIS APPEARS
TO BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FORECAST. THIS RAIN-SNOW
LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TODAY AND BE VERY CLOSE TO THE ERN
EDGE OF HOLT COUNTY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE RAP INDICATES AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN-SNOW WATER THROUGH 02Z THIS
EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB AND THE 06Z NAM SHOWS 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE
SAME AREA THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. THE NAM HAS BE HITTING SWRN NEB
HARD FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS NOW AND SHOWS NO SIGN OF BACKING OFF.
NOTE THAT THE MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SO STRONG...A WARM
NOSE DEVELOPS WHICH WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND PERHAPS
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGEOVER OCCURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS FOLLOWS IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON THURSDAY EVENING...CYCLOGENESIS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COMING ACROSS NEBRASKA.
AS THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH...SYSTEM-RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
IN ITS WAKE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CUT OFF FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH AND DRIER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BRING
SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES...OR EVEN COLDER...
TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.
AS THE HIGH GOES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED FOR
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL AND LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY. BY
LATE MORNING TUESDAY...LOOK FOR CIGS TO FALL BELOW 1000 FT AGL
WITH RAIN AND PATCHY FOG WITH VISBYS DOWN TO 3SM. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MIX WITH...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PERIODIC VISBYS OF 1SM ARE EXPECTED. BY TUES
EVENING...SNOW IS LIKELY WITH VISBYS DOWN TO 1/2SM AND CIGS OF
200 FT AGL. SNOWFALL RATES AND VISBYS MAY BE EVEN LOWER TUES
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IT IN
THE 06Z TAF. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 3000 FT AGL. FOR TUESDAY...VISBYS
WILL DECREASE TO THE 1 TO 2SM RANGE WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS MAY FALL OFF TO UNDER 1000
FT AGL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FOR
BOTH TERMINALS...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND MAY GUST UP TO 38 KTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NEZ058-069-070.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ004-094.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NEZ022>024-035-036-056-057.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ005-008-025-026-037-071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1135 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH
DAKOTA AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING
NORTH WITH TIME...AND THIS IS PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF LAMOURE AND DICKEY 10Z-18Z TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL REACH OUR WESTERN
BORDER 12Z-15Z TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT CLEARING PER FOG/STRATUS LOOP
LOCATED NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER AND PER LATEST HRRR...WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. DRIZZLE STILL POSSIBLE
REST OF TONIGHT...BUT PATCHY AT BEST. SUNSHINE TO FOLLOW BEHIND
THE TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY. CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST HAS
THE ABOVE FORECAST ELEMENTS HANDLED WELL AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
QUITE A FEW REPORTS ON FACEBOOK THIS EVENING OF DRIZZLE ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT ALSO EXTENDING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST...THANKS! LATEST 00 UTC RAP SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME DRIZZLE SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND HAVE EXTENDED THE AREA OF DRIZZLE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL. FOR THE MOST PART CRITICAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE DRIZZLE IS FALLING SO AT THIS
TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DROP
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING LATE THIS EVENING. SOME
UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS COULD BECOME SLIPPERY. DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD END THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE.
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST...IT APPEARS THE DRIZZLE SHOULD END
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO
MONITOR BUT AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALSO...ANY WET SURFACES IN THE WEST THAT DO NOT
COMPLETELY DRY OFF COULD BECOME ICY DUE TO TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 20S TOWARD MORNING...EVEN THOUGH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL HAVE ENDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 3-5 MB PRESSURE RISES
OVER MOST OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CURRANT GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. WILL BUMP UP THE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING AND IN THE CENTRAL LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATEST RADAR IS
SHOWING A FEW VERY WEAK RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND ANOTHER AREA OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA MOVING INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST IN AN HOUR OR TWO. NO GROUND TRUTH FROM EITHER AREA
AS OF YET. ALSO GOT A REPORT OF SOME DRIZZLE NEAR GARRISON. CAN
SEE SOME VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE MINOT AREA. WILL LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF DRIZZLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
IMPACTS FROM LOW LEVEL STRATUS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
AS OF 20 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS PROPAGATED THROUGH THE US HIGHWAY
85 CORRIDOR...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE EVENING.
BREEZY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THE EVENING.
WHILE THE STRATUS DECK FROM THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS
THE AREA...A SECONDARY DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SOON ENTER
THE WEST...AND ALSO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. GIVEN A CONSENSUS OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES AND THE 17-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS...LOCATIONS WEST
OF US HIGHWAY 83 ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTING
LOWS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN
TONIGHT ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS.
FOR TUESDAY...STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR
CENTRAL...WITH COOLER POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS HIGH WINDS AND POTENTIAL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A DEEP...CLOSED LOW WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND
ENTER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL PHASE WITH A
CLIPPER COMING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A RAPID TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
ENHANCEMENT OF THE WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 40S. THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE 12 UTC
MODEL SUITE OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM ALL INDICATE A VERY WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THEREFORE...A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE LOWS AFTER THEY PHASE...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY EXIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
AND DRY GRASSLANDS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED AFTER COORDINATING WITH
LOCAL FIRE MANAGERS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND 52.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
THE LATEST 06Z SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS
MVFR CIGS OCCURRING AT THE TERMINALS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMOT
WHICH IS IFR/900FT CIGS...AND KJMS WHICH IS VFR/4300FT. TREND
THROUGH 13Z TUESDAY IS FOR CIGS TO BECOME VFR FROM WEST TO EAST UP
THORUGH A KMOT TO KBIS LINE. KJMS IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
MVFR RANGE BY 10Z TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL 18Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
910 PM PST MON NOV 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE WELL ABOVE THE CASCADES PASSES BY LATE TONIGHT. A COLDER
PATTERN MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM..NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OR FORECASTS.
WARM FRONT IS NOW PUSHING ONSHORE...AS EVIDENT BY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THIS EVENING ON
THE COAST. AT 8 PM...ASTORIA WAS AT 58 DEG.
SNOW LEVEL THIS EVENING STILL HOLDING BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000
FEET...HIGHEST OVER LANE COUNTY. BUT...WITH WARM FRONT PUSHING
ONSHORE...SNOW LEVELS ARE RISING. NOAA PROFILERS INDICATED SNOW LEVEL
NOW NEAR 7000 FEET OVER THE COAST RANGE AND WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THAT
IS A JUMP OF 3000 TO 3500 FEET SINCE 5 PM. SO...WITH SNOW LEVELS
RISING RAPIDLY...ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE PUSHED HIGHER ABOVE
PASSES OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND RELEGATED TO ONLY THE HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE 7000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL LET CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR S WASHINGTON CASCADES EXPIRE THIS EVENING.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE AROUND 45 TO 55 MPH...BUT WOULD NOT
RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 60 MPH UNTIL 2 AM. THESE SHOULD NOT BE
WIDESPREAD OR FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEADLINE. FURTHER
INLAND...SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES UNTIL SOME TIME
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN EASE BACK A TAD.
THE WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 INCHES
FOR THE SW WASHINGTON COAST...WILLAPA HILLS...AND S WA CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE
CAN EXPECT 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY CAN
SEE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS TO THE NORTH. THE RAIN
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND RESULT IN PONDING ON THE ROADS. LUCKILY
THE RIVERS HAVE BEEN LOWERING DURING THE CURRENT BREAK...AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY RIVER FLOODING. CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT FLOODING FOR THE
QUICK RESPONDING GRAYS RIVER NEAR ROSBURG. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE GRAYS WILL CREST VERY CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE. THE FLOOD THREAT FOR
SW WASHINGTON APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOCALIZED. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
REDUCING THE RAIN RATES. THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL THEN SAG SOUTH
AS A COLD FRONT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN EARLY TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
QUITE A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY TUE EVENING. NAM SHOWS A CORE OF
55-60 KT 925 MB WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF SW WA AND THE N
OREGON COAST. STRONGEST SPEEDS LOOK TO OCCUR IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST...THE WILLAPA HILLS AND N
OREGON COAST RANGE. DROPPED THE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
AND COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE
50-60 KT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5-6K FT TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WARNING LEVEL GUSTS...IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH...TO BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER AND EXPOSED PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES. THE MAJOR CASCADE
ROADWAYS...COMMUNITIES AND SKI AREAS ARE SHELTERED TO SOME DEGREE
THUS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE WARNING-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS IN
THOSE LOCATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY...BUT HIGH MOISTURE VALUES
WILL STILL PRODUCE DECENT RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE THE SW TO W WIND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER PEAK PERIOD OF PRECIP TO OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z WED. GFS AND NAM ARE A LITTLE SLOWER SAGGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE 6000 FEET
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WED THEN DROP BELOW THE PASSES OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WED MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WANING AS SNOW LEVELS
FALL...SO DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
ANOTHER MOIST WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND DETAILS. THIS WARM-FRONTAL SYSTEM DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS MOIST OR PROLONGED AS THE PREVIOUS ONES. LATEST GFS
SHOWS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER NW OREGON WED NIGHT...INSTEAD OF SW
WASHINGTON. THE ECMWF IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER BUT HAS THE PRECIP CORE
STRADDLING THE COLUMBIA RIVER. HOWEVER...MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS
BARCLINIC BOUNDARY WEAKENS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OREGON
THU. WEISHAAR/ROCKEY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVES
QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN...THOUGH LIKELY NOT VERY MUCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN AROUND
4000 TO 6000 FT...SO THE PASSES MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
BEYOND FRIDAY...THE GFS BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA KEEPING
US DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER
MOVING THE SHOWERS OUT OF OUR AREA AND KEEPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AT THE LATEST...WE SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AS WELL
...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING MORE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT DETAILS ARE
VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT MOVING ONSHORE HAS BROUGHT INCREASING
RAIN AND STEADILY LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS ARE MOSTLY MVFR AT THIS TIME...WHILE THE COAST
IS SEEING A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN TO TAPER OFF FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE PDX METRO AREA...AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH TUE AM. A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER
TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN...DECREASING CIGS AND
VSBYS...AND VERY GUSTY SW WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. THE
COASTAL SITES MAY SEE WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MVFR CIGS IN RAIN TO CONTINUE TUE AM
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 21Z TUE.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL BY AROUND 03Z
WED...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...A ROUND OF STRONG SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS AFFECTED
THE WATERS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WARM FRONT. WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
DROPPED OFF OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
ONSHORE...AND ARE NOW GUSTING AROUND 25 TO 30 KT. THE LATEST SHORT
TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC AND HRRR INDICATING GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT...SO
DECIDED TO ISSUE A NEW GALE WARNING FOR ZONE 270 STARTING
IMMEDIATELY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN THE WINDS WILL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 13 TO 16 FT
THROUGH EARLY AM TUE.
A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE AND
TUE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 KT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING
FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER
SOUTH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AND THEN A RAPID SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING.
ENHANCED WESTERLY SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY TUE...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH 20
TO 23 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS TO
AFFECT TO THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON COAST.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
LOOKS TO HAVE A SURFACE LOW HEADED STRAIGHT FOR NW OREGON...WHICH
WOULD BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE WATERS.
MODELS THEN AGREE ON HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NE PAC FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR COAST
RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE EVENING ON
THE NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT PST TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD FROM 10 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
PST TUESDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1134 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS...OVERALL TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK. THINK
MVFR/IFR CIGS LOOK GOOD FOR THE NEXT 6-12HRS AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE.
SQUALL LINE IS ORGANIZING IN W C TX. MODELS DEPICT CONVECTION
FORMING AHEAD OF THIS SQUALL LINE FROM 10-15Z WITH SQUALL LINE
COMING INTO THE AREA 13-21Z TIME FRAME. TAFS REFLECT A LITTLE
FASTER PROGRESSION THAN MODELS WHICH COULD HAPPEN. LATEST HRRR RUN
SEEMS TO AGREE WITH THESE TRENDS. LATEST 00Z WRF ARW/NMM SHOW
SIMILAR TRENDS BUT ARE ALSO MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD
LEADING TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE. MAIN TAF UPDATES GOING FORWARDS
WILL BE TO KEEP UP WITH THESE TRENDS.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZING WEST TEXAS SQUALL LINE IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN EDGES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD SUNRISE (GIVE OR TAKE AN
HOUR OR TWO) TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG/SEVERE CELL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THIS LINE TOO. STILL LOOKS LIKE
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOO. EVERYTHING SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HAS
15 TO 25 MPH WINDS FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IF
SPEEDS CREEP UP HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
SUMMARY...SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS MIX TONIGHT UNTIL SHRA/TSRA
BEGIN TO FILL IN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SQUALL IN FROM C TX MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM 12 TO 21Z TUESDAY.
TIMING OF SQUALL LINE BASED MAINLY ON EXTRAPOLATE HRRR/RAP WITH
WRF ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS. NAM SEEMS TO BE TOO SLOW. MAYBE A BIT
FASTER THAN THE GFS. LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG NEAR 50KTS AT
925-850MB SO INCLUDED SOME GUSTS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS. OTHERWISE
IF WINDS HAPPEN TO DECOUPLE...LLWS WILL BE NEEDED.
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...BASICALLY LOOKING AT SOME LOWER CIGS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD UNTIL AFTER THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES THROUGH.
MAY GET SOME SHRA/TSRA TO FORM AHEAD OF A SQUALL LINE FROM 06Z TO
09Z WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL THE SQUALL LINE. SQUALL LINE
COULD MOVE INTO KCLL AS EARLY AS 11Z AND THEN KUTS/KCXO A LITTLE
LATER AT 13-14Z. TSRA COULD HOLD ON THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WHEN ANY
LINGERING TSRA/SHRA MOVE OUT. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY TO MAYBE 30KTS
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.
KIAH/KHOU/KSGR...MVFR POSSIBLY SOME IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME SHRA. POSSIBLE THAT SOME
SHRA/TSRA FORM AHEAD OF A SQUALL LINE SO MENTION THAT IN FIRST
TEMPO GROUP WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS. MAY GET A BREAK IN ACTIVITY
UNTIL SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH LATE MORNING HOURS 16-19Z WITH
GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH ANYWAY. TSRA
SHOULD DROP OFF EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE SQUALL LINE PROGRESSING
EAST. CIGS IMPROVE TOMORROW EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
KGLS/KLBX...LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS OFF THE GULF WITH MAYBE SOME
LOWER VSBY AT KGLS DUE TO LIGHT SEA FOG/HAZE. MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH PASSING SHRA. LOOK FOR
MAYBE SOME PASSING TSRA AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE BUT THIS ACTIVITY
MAY BE FURTHER INLAND THAN ALONG THE COAST. MAIN LINE OF STORM
SHOULD REACH KLBX/KGLS AROUND 17Z THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
TSRA/SHRA MAY LINGER UNTIL AFTER 21Z BUT COULD END SOONER.
39
MARINE...
PRES GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT AND ANTICIPATE ONSHORE WINDS
TO INCREASE TO ADVSY LEVELS...QUITE POSSIBLY WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT & EARLY MORNING HOURS TUE. WILL
HOIST THE ADVSY FLAGS FOR ALL THE WATERS BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
LINE OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE WNW-ESE THRU THE WATERS FROM THE LATE
MORNING THRU THE MID/LATE AFTN HOURS. ASSOCIATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
CONVECTION...BUT DIMINISH LATE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TIDES LEVELS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 1.25 FT ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TIDE ALONG
THE GALVESTON BEACHES IS AROUND 8 PM. THIS WOULD PUT LEVELS RIGHT
AROUND 3.3 FEET THEN...BUT LUCKILY THIS IS BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS
REALLY START CRANKING UP OVERNIGHT. SO OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME WAVE
RUN UP TO HIGHWAY 87@124 LATE TONIGHT...DON`T REALLY SEE ANY OTHER
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AS LEVELS WILL TREND TOWARD LOW TIDE AROUND
1230PM TOMORROW. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 66 69 48 70 49 / 80 100 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 74 50 73 49 / 50 100 20 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 74 57 71 60 / 30 90 40 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
537 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
THE SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 06Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO. THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE PUMPING MOIST AIR TOWARD THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE
MAIN CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHWEST JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
THE MODELS INDICATE SOMETHING VERY INTERESTING WILL HAPPEN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SFC WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN STRONG
ALL DAY AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET. A HEAVY
SNOW BAND OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR RATES SHOULD FORM ACROSS SWRN
NEB THIS MORNING AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO NCNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW
WOULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT. WPC HAS RAISED THEIR SNOWFALL FORECAST TO 8 TO 15 PLUS
INCHES ACROSS SWRN NEB NORTHEAST THROUGH LINCOLN AND EVEN INTO LOGAN
COUNTY.
A BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. LOGAN COUNTY IS
UNDER REVIEW FOR AN UPGRADE AT THIS POINT PENDING THE PROGRESS OF
THIS WEATHER SITUATION. VIRTUALLY EVERY MODEL...9 OF THEM...FORECAST
500M AGL WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SFC WINDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH GUSTING TO 40 TO 45 MPH.
SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR THIS FORECAST. COLD AIR IS POURING
INTO WRN NEB WITH ALL AREAS IN SNOW WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THIS APPEARS
TO BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FORECAST. THIS RAIN-SNOW
LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TODAY AND BE VERY CLOSE TO THE ERN
EDGE OF HOLT COUNTY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE RAP INDICATES AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN-SNOW WATER THROUGH 02Z THIS
EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB AND THE 06Z NAM SHOWS 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE
SAME AREA THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. THE NAM HAS BE HITTING SWRN NEB
HARD FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS NOW AND SHOWS NO SIGN OF BACKING OFF.
NOTE THAT THE MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SO STRONG...A WARM
NOSE DEVELOPS WHICH WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND PERHAPS
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGEOVER OCCURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS FOLLOWS IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON THURSDAY EVENING...CYCLOGENESIS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COMING ACROSS NEBRASKA.
AS THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH...SYSTEM-RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
IN ITS WAKE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CUT OFF FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH AND DRIER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BRING
SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES...OR EVEN COLDER...
TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.
AS THE HIGH GOES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
MIXED MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH
NEBRASKA. SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
AS DRY AIR MOVES IN AND CAUSES CIGS TO LIFT.
WINDS 36027G35KT TODAY DECREASE TO 33020G30KT THIS EVENING AND TO 33015KT
BY 06Z TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NEZ058-069-070.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ004-094.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NEZ022>024-035-036-056-057.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ005-008-025-026-037-071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
913 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ECHOES
ARE LIGHTER AND ANY PRECIPITATION IS REMAINING SPRINKLES FOR NOW
AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY.
RECENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE NORTH BUT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE WILL DECREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. FORECAST HIGHS
LOOK IN THE BALLPARK AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER A DRY STRETCH ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE A STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING VERY SLOWLY OVER KANSAS. THIS WILL CHANGE IN A HURRY...AS
INTERACTION WITH A LARGE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
WILL INITIATE SOME PHASING...WITH THE PLAINS LOW OPENING UP
RAPIDLY AS IT ACCELERATES TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST (WITH A STRONGER
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING FAR TO THE NORTH). AS THE RESULTANT TROUGH
MOVES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...IT WILL BE SHORT ON PROGRESSIVE
(EASTWARD) MOTION...LEADING TO A FAIRLY SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE
ILN FORECAST AREA.
THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION WILL BE
FORCED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...AND A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE
PLUME OF HIGHER PWAT/THETA-E VALUES THAT WRAPS INTO THE
NEWLY-DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH MINNESOTA. IT WOULD BE MISLEADING TO SUGGEST THAT THE
PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...WHICH THETA-E AND WIND MAPS SUGGEST
WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO
100-PERCENT...MOVING ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND
00Z.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPEAR VERY
LOW...AND THUNDER HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST...OWING TO
SOUNDINGS THAT SUPPORT ONLY MINUTE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY (AND
NONE DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING). GFS SOUNDINGS DEPICT
SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET THAN
NAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IN EITHER CASE...EXTREMELY POOR LAPSE RATES
JUST ABOVE 5KFT WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
WITHIN THE BAND OF RAIN. THERE IS ALWAYS GOING TO BE SOME NATURAL
CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS (AND SOMETIMES SEVERE WEATHER) WHEN WIND
SHEAR IS AS STRONG AS IT WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM. INDEED...THE
RAW MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE. IN THIS CASE IT IS
LIKELY TO BE A MOSTLY-IRRELEVANT FOOTNOTE ON THE FORECAST...DUE
TO ITS ORIENTATION TO THE PRECIPITATION (ALMOST COMPLETELY
PARALLEL NORTH-TO-SOUTH) AND THE LACK OF NEAR-SURFACE FORCING.
THIS SETUP IS NOT ONE THAT FAVORS STRONGLY FOCUSED OR ORGANIZED
SURFACE-ROOTED PRECIPITATION...WITH EXTREMELY MERIDIONAL FLOW
THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...AND SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FORCING THAT IS PRESENT. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT SOME GUSTY WINDS
MIGHT NOT BE REALIZED. A SLIGHT INVERSION SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM
GETTING TOO STRONG LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ANY SLIGHT MIXING ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS
IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE...WHETHER WITHIN OR OUTSIDE OF RAIN.
SPEAKING OF THE RAIN...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE MOIST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT WILL
APPROACH AN INCH AND A HALF. VALUES THAT HIGH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD
FOR MID-NOVEMBER (BASED ON SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR ILN/DAY).
HOWEVER...THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE NARROW...AND NOT SUBJECT
TO STRONG OR FOCUSED FORCING. THUS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY TO RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA TO A
HALF INCH IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY
PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...WHICH WILL REMAIN DRY THE
LONGEST...MAY WELL SNEAK INTO THE 70S AS A RESULT OF THE
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. ONCE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY
PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
FALL...AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY. A WEAK SECONDARY
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
TO BEGIN...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS (AND NO PRECIPITATION). IF THIS
SECONDARY FRONT COMES THROUGH SLOWER (AS INDICATED BY THE
ECMWF)...TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MIGHT BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE LOWER-TO-MID 50S CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...AS COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO
BACK. THIS IS AHEAD OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT WILL DROP DOWN
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES THOUGH WITH THIS FEATURE AS THE 12Z GFS IS ABOUT 6-12
HOURS FASTER AND A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. AT ANY
RATE...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT SOME LOWER
CHANCE POPS...LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AND WILL TREND
THE TIMING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF. PTYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THE LOW LEVELS MAY BE COULD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ANY PCPN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF OUR FA. A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL THEN SETTLE INTO
OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY...DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING WILL SHARPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PIVOT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF
THIS STRONGER FORCING/DEEPER MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF
SITES TODAY...WITH EASTERN SITES SEEING SPRINKLES. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD STILL REMAIN VFR.
FOR TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
ENERGY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BRING A BAND
OF SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE INTERIM...THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS THE APPROACH OF
A 75 TO 80 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY RISE TO
HEIGHTS OF JUST CIRRUS/HIGH AC AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN SUCH A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AND WITH WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET...HAVE PLACED THE
THREAT OF LLWS IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS ALL SITES WITH RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LLWS
LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
413 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
.DISCUSSION...
BIG CHANGES UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A POWERFUL STORM
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS HEADS OUR WAY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. FOR THIS
MORNING...RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE INTO
NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH
15Z OR SO BEFORE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...SO WILL SHOW
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES FOR THE
MORNING...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER
THE WESTERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON DURING A LULL BETWEEN THE
INITIAL LEAD SHORTWAVE AND THE APPROACHING MAIN UPPER TROUGH.
STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL LEAD TO A
MUCH WARMER DAY FOR THE MID STATE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
70S ANTICIPATED...AND ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT IN
HIGHS BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN A 1035MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND A 987MB SURFACE LOW OVER
OKLAHOMA BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WEST OF THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
REGION WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FURTHER AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB JET STRENGTHENING FROM 50KTS AT
00Z THIS EVENING UP TO 70-80KTS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...A FEW
EVEN STRONGER GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. IN COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
MID TN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED OVER EASTERN ZONES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
WILL REMAIN BRISK THERE.
LATEST 00Z/06Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT SLOWER BRINGING THE QLCS
CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS INTO THE MID STATE...WITH THE
SLOWING AND WEAKENING QLCS REACHING THE TENNESSEE RIVER AROUND
09Z TONIGHT...I-65 AROUND 12Z...AND THE PLATEAU AROUND 19-20Z.
POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY BASED ON THIS
TIMING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES BUT LITTLE OR ZERO CAPE...AND THUS NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH MAINLY JUST MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
STRENGTHENING OF THE QLCS OVER EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AS A COUPLE MODELS SUGGEST. LATEST MODEL AND WPC
QPF CONTINUES TO INDICATE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FOR OUR
CWA...WHICH SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING ISSUES DUE
TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL THIS MONTH.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME
SPRINKLES ALONG THE FRONT AND THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS FALL BEHIND
IT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUCH AS
THE MEX MOS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 71 63 67 45 / 40 60 100 10
CLARKSVILLE 70 62 64 44 / 80 90 100 10
CROSSVILLE 67 60 65 45 / 10 10 100 40
COLUMBIA 71 63 64 42 / 40 70 100 10
LAWRENCEBURG 70 62 63 43 / 40 70 100 10
WAVERLY 71 61 62 45 / 80 100 100 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
356 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE GRADIENT WINDS HAVE STEADILY
INCREASED AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AT THE BEACHES. MOISTURE SUITABLE FOR INCREASING MARINE SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED AS STRENGTH OF THE OVERLYING RIDGE SUBSIDES OVER THE
LOCAL ATLC WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW @ BOUNDARY LAYER UPWARDS OF 20 TO
25 KT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIURNAL REDEVELOPMENT OF MARINE SOURCE PCPN
AS INDICATED BY LTST HRRR GUID ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST WITH
SUITABLE WINDS PUSHING SHOWERS WELL INLAND. BEST DEVELOPED CU
BANDS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME MEASURED RAIN AMOUNTS OF .10
TO .20 INCHES INTO EARLY WED AS THEY COME ASHORE. LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING WED IN VEERING WIND FLOW PATTERN WITH
REGIME OF SE-LIES LEADING TO A FURTHER INCREASE IN AVBL MOISTURE
WITH NEAR RECORD WARM AND PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. SCT RAIN CVRG
AREAWIDE WL BE USED IN THE FORECAST
THU-FRI...
STORM SYSTEM DVLPG OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT N AND MERGE
WITH A SECOND LOW THAT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE PAC NW... MERGER
OCCURRING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/CANADIAN PLAINS REGION BY DAYBREAK
THU. MID/UPR LVL WIND PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS IS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED....SUGGESTING A LARGE/DEEP HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
ERN CANADA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL SLOWLY GIVE GROUND TO THE
NEXT THAT WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FL. INDEED...BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE THE FRONT...CURRENTLY PUSHING OFF THE TX COAST...WILL ONLY
MAKE IT TO THE CAROLINA COAST/NE GOMEX BY 12Z THU BEFORE STALLING
OVER THE PANHANDLE/NRN PENINSULA BY 12Z FRI.
THE SLOW MOVING/STALLING FRONT WILL SPELL A WET END TO THE WORK WEEK
AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PLENTY TO POOL WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROF...
PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO ARND 1.7"-1.8" BY DAYBREAK THU...
FLUCTUATING BTWN 1.8"-2.0" THRU SUNSET FRI BEFORE THE FRONT DRIFTS S
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND ALLOWS DRIER MID LVL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE STATE.
THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE RESPECTABLE JET SUPPORT GIVEN THE 120-140KT
H30-H20 STREAK PUSHING ACRS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
COOLING MID LVL TEMPS AS AN H50 THERMAL TROF ASSOCD WITH THE JET
WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE NRN GULF COAST. HOWEVER...THE SATURATED
AIRMASS INDICATED BY THE MODELS WILL IMPEDE SFC HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. FURTHERMORE...THE RIDGE WILL SAP MUCH OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WHILE DEFLECTING MOST OF THE MID
LVL VORTICITY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL KEEP SLGT CHC OF TSTMS IN
THE FCST AS THE FRONT SAGS ACRS THE I-4 CORRIDOR...REDUCING PRECIP
TO 30-40PCT CHC SHRAS ON FRI. AFTN MAX TEMPS L/M80S...MIN TEMPS
U60S/L70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...L/M60S BEHIND IT.
SAT-TUE...(PREV DISC)
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT SHOULD FINALLY GET A KICK THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA ON SUN AS A STRONG TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE MID PART OF THE
COUNTRY...DRIVING A REINFORCING FRONT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
00Z ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWING MUCH MORE DRYING AND COOLING
BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT...NOW HAS A SLOWER SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GFS
AND INDICATES SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET. CONSENSUS POPS DID
NOT PICK UP ON THIS YET AND WERE 20-30 PERCENT...BUT EXPECT LATER
RUNS WILL SHOW HIGHER VALUES. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWED MORE
COOLING/DRYING FOR MON-TUE THOUGH AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS
MAY BE IN ORDER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS MIXED WITH BRIEF LOWER CLOUD CVRG NR FL 030-040 IN
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS. BEST CHC FOR ANY CIG INTERRUPTIONS WILL
BE NEAR THE CST AND TO SOME DEGREE INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WED. SFC WIND G NR 25KT ALONG THE CST THIS AFT/EVE
THROUGH 02Z WED.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT AND WED...SCA AREA WIDE FOR WINDS/SEAS WL BE IN EFFECT AT
4 PM AND PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT AS FULL STRENGTH OF ONSHORE
GRADIENT WINDS MANIFESTS. CHOPPY SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 8 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE AND AROUND 6 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THU-THU NIGHT...BRISK SERLY FLOW DIMINISHING TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE
S/SE BREEZE THRU THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS MARCH ACRS THE
PANHANDLE/ERN GOMEX. WINDS SHIFTING TO A LIGHT TO GENTLE W/NWRLY
BREEZE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE LCL ATLC WATERS...MORE
WRLY COMPONENT S OF SEBASTIAN INLET...MORE NRLY COMPONENT N OF THE
INLET. DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM TO 3-5FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE. SHRAS LIKELY WITH THE FROPA...SLGT CHC
TSRAS.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...POST FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID
ATLC COAST. WINDS WILL UNDERGO A SLOW BUT STEADY SHIFT AREAWIDE. N
OF SEBASTIAN INLET A GENTLE TO MODERATE N/NE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE DAY...BCMG A LIGHT TO GENTLE ERLY BREEZE OVERNIGHT. FROM
THE INLET SWD...A LIGHT TO GENTLE NE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THRU THE
DAY...BCMG A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND
4-6FT OFFSHORE. CHC SHRAS AREAWIDE.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...LCL PGRAD WILL SLACKEN AS A STRONG HI PRES RIDGE
FORCES THE FRONTAL TROF TO STALL OVER SE FL. SHIFTING FLOW ACRS THE
LCL ATLC...E/SE AREAWIDE EARLY IN THE DAY...BY SUNSET BCMG N/NE FROM
SEBASTIAN INLET NWD... THEN A GENTLE TO MODERATE N/NW BREEZE
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING N/NE SWELLS THRU THE PD...SEAS BUILDING TO
4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE. CHC SHRAS.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...FRESHENING N/NERLY BREEZE WILL PUSH THE NEW SWELL
TRAIN DOWN THE E FL COAST...GENERATING ROUGH TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDS. MODERATE TO FRESH N/NE BREEZE...SEA BUILDING TO 6-8FT
NEARSHORE AND 8-10FT OFFSHORE. CHC SHRAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 72 84 73 80 / 30 30 40 60
MCO 71 86 71 83 / 20 30 40 60
MLB 77 85 74 82 / 30 30 40 60
VRB 75 84 74 82 / 30 30 30 60
LEE 71 86 72 81 / 20 30 40 60
SFB 70 86 71 81 / 20 30 40 60
ORL 72 86 72 82 / 20 30 40 60
FPR 75 84 74 82 / 40 30 30 60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 4 PM TODAY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20
NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60
NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET
TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
247 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
993 mb surface low pressure over central KS to eject into sw MN by
dawn Wed as 536 dm 500 mb low over OK panhandle moves to near the
NE/KS/MO border. A lull in the showers is occuring this afternoon
from I-55 southeast and this break could move into parts of the IL
river valley late this afternoon too. The HRRR model seems to be
reflecting this trend the best and followed it for tonight`s
precipitation forecast. Large area of showers over MO into southeast
IA and nw IL to spread eastward across central IL tonight and
overspread eastern IL late this evening and overnight. Not much
thunder activity so far today but SPC has general risk of thunder
over CWA into tonight and will continue to carry isolated
thunderstorms though diminishing thunder chances from west to east
later tonight. Up to an additional 1 inch of rain expected into
early Wed morning and this is falling on top of 1 to 2 inches that
has already fallen over the area since Monday. Will continue the
flood watch over sw half of CWA through 6 am Wednesday and may be
able to cancel early in western portion with 3 am forecast package
tonight as heavier rain band shifts into eastern IL later tonight.
Strong se winds 15-30 mph and gusts as highs as 30-40 mph to keep
mild lows in the mid to upper 50s which is a bit above normal highs
for mid November.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
A strong storm system will continue to impact central and southeast
Illinois to start the day Wednesday, although the steadier rainfall
should be limited to the far eastern extent of the forecast area.
While the heavier rains should be over or quickly ending on
Wednesday, the gusty winds will persist. In fact, as the associated
upper-level cold pool approaches, and surface cold front lags
behind, the steeper low-level lapse rates support even stronger
winds than today. Would not be surprised to see gusts to around 40
MPH for much of the day, and the need for a Wind Advisory will need
to be monitored closely.
Quiet and cooler weather will spread across the region behind the
major system for Thursday and most of Friday as high pressure builds
into the area. While temperatures during the period will be
significantly cooler than we have seen lately, they are much closer
to normal for mid-November.
Models are coming into better agreement regarding a weather
disturbance to end the week. A significant short wave is progged to
translate through the shallower broad trof across North America,
with the trof axis crossing the Midwest from Friday night into
Saturday. This short wave is expected to be accompanied a clipper-
type low pressure system as it moves through. The system is expected
to have precipitation associated with it, and most should fall on
the cool side of the system as is typical with clippers. While the
exact timing/track of the clipper is still in doubt, confidence is
building that most of the forecast area should see precipitation.
Thermal profiles support most, if not all, of the precipitation to
fall in the form of snow. However, if the system arrives early
enough Friday night, it may be warm enough for rain at the onset.
Also, given the strength of the wave, and CAA it its wake, expect
temperatures on Saturday to remain steady or fall as the system
clears the area. Many areas are not likely to make it out of the 30s
Saturday and Sunday. Overall, this system will need to be monitored
closely as it has the potential to bring the first accumulating snow
of the season to parts of the forecast area. However, the warm
ground temperatures should mitigate this threat to some degree.
Cooler than normal temperatures will linger through the end of the
forecast. An additional disturbance may impact the area by Tuesday,
but the current model consensus supports dry weather beyond Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
IFR to low end MVFR ceilings and IFR to MVFR visibilites with
showers to occur this afteroon and tonight. MVFR ceilings expected
Wed morning and vsbys improving to VFR as showers diminish from
the west during Wed morning. High resolution models like HRRR and
RUC show a lull in showers over central and eastern IL developing
during the afternoon and into the evening. Then a larger band of
showers and isolated thunderstorms to spread eastward across IL
during tonight, likely not reaching eastern IL until overnight.
Windy conditions to continue with se winds 18-25 kts and gusts of
27-37 kts through tonight and veering more south Wed morning.
Strong 993 mb surface low pressure over sw KS into OK panhandle
and 536 dm 500 mb low to eject ne into the upper MS river valley
by 18Z/noon Wed.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ036-040>042-047>054-056-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1157 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
Forecast looks pretty good today and just had to increase the
wind speeds a bit higher today, with southeast winds 20-30 mph and
gusts of 30-40 mph. Continued the flood watch for sw CWA through
tonight where 1-2 inches of rain has fallen past 24 hours and
additional 1.25-1.75 inches rest of today and through tonight
with locally higher amounts from Springfield sw with occasional
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures currently in the
mid 50s to around 60F with milder highs this afternoon of 60-65F.
2nd batch of showers with pockets of moderate to heavy rains
starting to break up over sw half of CWA late this morning as its
lifting ne. 3rd batch of showers and isolated thunderstorms over
MO will spread across western CWA during the afternoon and evening
and into eastern IL overnight. So could be a break in showers for
a time this afternoon and evening especially over eastern/se IL.
Strong 536 dm 500 mb low over the OK panhandle while associated
993 mb surface low pressure from north texas into sw KS and will
eject ne into eastern KS this evening. KILX 12Z precipitable water
values was 1.43 inches and ranked as 10th highest in November and
only 0.10 inches from the highest. Precipitable water values to
peak near record levels between 1.50 and 1.60 inches this
afternoon and into tonight to support moderate to heavy rainfall.
ILX will be doing a special 18Z upper air flight today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
The second in a series a waves will move across the CWA this
morning. Based on radar and satellite trends, believe showers will
diminish some later this afternoon...in the eastern part of the CWA.
So highest pops will be in the west today. Southeast winds will
remain gusty with gusts over 30 mph at times. As long as the weather
system remains west of the area, pressure gradient will remain
tight, continuing the gusty winds. These gusty winds should help the
warm air advection, causing afternoon temps to be much warmer than
normal.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
Track of the upper low currently over northeast New Mexico will take
it into northeast Kansas by early Wednesday, before it opens up and
becomes absorbed into a digging wave in the northern stream. High-
resolution models showing consensus in maintaining a break in the
rain across the eastern CWA late afternoon into the first part of
the evening, but a narrow area of showers will be advancing east
with time as the associated frontal boundary moves into western
Illinois after midnight. Precipitable water values remain off the
charts with values around 1.6-1.7 inches advertised by the NAM and
GFS much of today and this evening, so heavier rains remain likely
with the showers and isolated storms. Flood watch will remain in
place, with the most likely places to experience any flooding
generally from Havana-Effingham westward before the showers weaken
post-midnight. Temperatures expected to remain fairly steady in the
60s much of the night with the strong southerly wind ahead of the
boundary, before finally tailing off late night as the front pushes
east.
A significant surge of colder air will push into the central U.S.
beginning late Wednesday, with a broad trough covering most of the
CONUS by Thursday afternoon. Rather breezy pattern to stick around
in this flow, although winds will be diminishing from south to north
with time on Thursday. Focus will be shifting toward a fast moving
shortwave that will drop through the western Dakotas on Friday,
developing a surface system near the Nebraska Panhandle. The models
have been struggling a bit recently with trying to pin down this
feature in the fast flow, but they are starting to come into
consensus with a period of light precipitation mainly after midnight
Friday night and continuing into Saturday morning. Forecast
soundings indicate the bulk of this precipitation should fall as
snow, with some mixture at the beginning and end. Ground
temperatures remain rather warm (lower 40s at 4 inches per Illinois
State Water Survey), so would not anticipate much in the way of
accumulation, but a light dusting is not out the question mainly
north of I-74 in the heavier precipitation bands.
The ECMWF is much more intense with the sharpening of the cold upper
trough over the Mississippi Valley this weekend, with the GFS a bit
shallower and faster moving. However, both models quickly trend to a
more moderate temperature pattern early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
IFR to low end MVFR ceilings and IFR to MVFR visibilites with
showers to occur this afteroon and tonight. MVFR ceilings expected
Wed morning and vsbys improving to VFR as showers diminish from
the west during Wed morning. High resolution models like HRRR and
RUC show a lull in showers over central and eastern IL developing
during the afternoon and into the evening. Then a larger band of
showers and isolated thunderstorms to spread eastward across IL
during tonight, likely not reaching eastern IL until overnight.
Windy conditions to continue with se winds 18-25 kts and gusts of
27-37 kts through tonight and veering more south Wed morning.
Strong 993 mb surface low pressure over sw KS into OK panhandle
and 536 dm 500 mb low to eject ne into the upper MS river valley
by 18Z/noon Wed.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ036-040>042-047>054-056-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
349 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP S FLOW OVER
THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN A HI AMPLITUDE RDG ORIENTED FM JAMES BAY TO
THE SE CONUS AND AN UPR TROF IN THE PLAINS EXTENDING N OF A CUTOFF
H5 LO NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS STRONG S WIND BTWN THESE UPR
FEATURES...WITH 12Z H925 WINDS UP TO 40-45 KTS NOTED FM GRB INTO THE
LOWER-MID MS RIVER VALLEY...IS DRAWING SOME VERY MOIST AIR TOWARD
THE CWA. 12Z ROABS SHOW AN AREA OF PWAT BTWN 1.00 AND 1.50 INCH JUST
TO THE SW...AS MUCH AS 250-350 PCT OF NORMAL. THE 12Z APX RAOB DOES
SHOW AN AREA OF LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR IN NRN LOWER MI. SOME SCT
SHOWERS DID IMPACT MAINLY THE CENTRAL EARLIER...BUT ADVECTION OF
SOME LLVL DRY AIR FM THE DRY AIR SOURCE RELATED TO THE 12Z APX RAOB
TENDED TO DIMINISH THESE SHOWERS IN THE ABSENCE OF SGNFT DYNAMIC
FORCING SO FAR TO THE NE OF THE CLOSED LO IN THE SRN PLAINS. A
SHRTWV TRACKING N INTO MN IS CAUSING A MORE WDSPRD AREA OF SHOWERS
IN THAT AREA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS AND WINDS AS
UPR/SFC LO IN THE SRN PLAINS LIFTS TO THE N AND THRU MN ON WED.
ALTHOUGH THE UPR LO WL BE WEAKENING INTO WED AS THE DISTURBANCE
LIFTS TO THE N...THIS SHRTWV WL BEGIN PHASING THEN WITH ANOTHER
VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.
TNGT...UPR LO IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE N TO NEAR OMAHA BY 12Z
WED...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LO NEAR 990MB MOVING INTO MN. ALTHOUGH
MODELS SHOW SLOWLY FALLING HGTS AND HINT A WAVE OR TWO OF UPR
DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAY SWING N THRU THE AREA ACCOMPANYING
RELATIVELY WEAK SHRTWVS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...
ABSENCE OF PERSISTENT SGNFT DYNAMIC FORCING AND SOME LINGERING LLVL
DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT QPF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE DRY
AIR. LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST OF THESE DISTURBANCS WL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS EVNG. THE HEAVIEST RA SHOULD FALL OVER THE CENTRAL CWA
WHERE UPSLOPE SSE WINDS WL ACCENTUATE THE FORCING JUST TO THE W OF
THE DRIER LLVL AIR AND UNDER STRONGER H925 LLJ FLOW. WL GO WITH THE
HIEST CATEGORICAL POPS IN THIS AREA. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WL LIMIT
POPS/QPF OVER THE W. H925 WINDS WITHIN THE LLJ ARE FCST AS HI AS 40-
50KTS...BUT HIER STABILITY SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS UNDER THERMAL RDG WL
PREVENT THIS STRONG MOMENTUM FM MIXING TO THE SFC. STILL EXPECT
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS AS HI AS 30-35 MPH AT MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
INFLUX OF DEEP MSTR/UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW WL SUPPORT SOME FOG MAINLY
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL. EXPECT LTL DIURNAL TEMP
DROP...IN FACT TEMPS MAY RISE SLOWLY AS THE STEADY SSE WINDS ADVECT
WARMER/HIER PWAT AIR INTO THE AREA.
WED...AS LO PRES TRACKS FM MN INTO NW ONTARIO DURING THE AFTN...THE
WEAKENING CLOSED LO IS FCST TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING THRU
SCENTRAL CANADA...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING LO PRES CENTER TO THE NW
IN THE AFTN. UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY THE STRONG SSW FLOW AND SOME
DRY SLOTTING ON THE SE FLANK OF THE LO. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN
AREA OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF AN OCCLUDED FNT/BAND OF
HIER MID LVL RH...THE OVERALL DRY SLOTTING AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
PROGGED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE DAY WL LIMIT POPS AND QPF. FALLING
H85 TEMPS/SLOWLY DCRSG STABILITY IN THE AFTN AND APRCH OF PRES RISE
CENTER FM THE S MAY SUPPORT INCRSG SSW WIND GUSTS LATER IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
...VERY WINDY ON THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SUB 980MB LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN TO SUB 970MB BY TIME IT
REACHES SOUTHWEST HUDSON BAY BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THIS DEEPENING
OF SFC LOW OCCURS AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES WITH WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. EXPECT
RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO BE ISOLD IN COVERAGE DUE TO
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAK FORCING OVERALL. OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT H85-H7 MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL PVA
FM TROUGH NEARING FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS INCREASE
BUT LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM SHOULD PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LOW LIFTING INTO ONTARIO CROSSES WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AROUND
MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT...CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT TO AROUND
DAYBREAK ON THU...AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WINDS IN LOW-LEVELS STAY FM THE W-SW SO
ONLY LAKE EFFECT OF NOTE WOULD BE OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY ON FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN MAINLY INTO
FAR EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN /APX CWA/.
BIG ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PRECIP OR SNOW /AT
LEAST INITIALLY/...BUT WINDS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS ALOFT 30-45 KTS/UP TO
45MPH...STRONGEST OVER LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. DUE
TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
PROFILE...SOLID PORTION OF THESE WINDS SHOULD MIX TO SFC IN FREQUENT
GUSTS. GFS IS MORE ON THE HIGHER END IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF WINDS
ALOFT...DUE TO STRONGER SFC LOW OVER HUDSON BAY COMPARED TO THE NAM.
GFS DOES LOOK SIMILAR TO ECMWF/GEM-NH IN PLACEMENT OF THE LOW ON THU
BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH INTENSITY. THUS...PROBABLY WILL NOT GO
COMPLETELY WITH GFS REALLY STRONG WINDS IDEA ATTM. RESULT WILL BE
ADVY SW WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WEST...ESPECIALLY ON THE KEWEENAW.
WINDY BUT STAYING BLO ADVY ELSEWHERE. NO MATTER HOW YOU LOOK AT IT
THOUGH...A VERY WINDY AND MUCH COLDER DAY IN STORE ON THU.
SFC TROUGH CROSSES LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN ON THU NIGHT WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE W THAN SW. H85 TEMPS BY LATER THU NIGHT WILL BE
DOWN TO -12C OR LOWER. WITH WATER TEMPS AROUND 5-6C PER LATEST GLERL
ANALYSIS...OVER-WATER INSTABILITY IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE
EFFECT. WEST WINDS FAVOR KEWEENAW FOR MOST OF LAKE EFFECT SOUNDINGS
DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARY FAVORABLE THOUGH AS THEY SHOW INVERTED V
PROFILE WITH CLOUD BASE AROUND H85/3KFT EVEN DURING THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING WHEN SHOULD SEE MORE MOISTENING IN LOWEST-LEVELS. LIKELY
TROUBLE IS WEST WINDS STAY 30-40KTS...CUTTING DOWN ON RESIDENCE TIME
AND EFFECTIVE OVER WATER FETCH. TYPICALLY WITH WINDS THIS
STRONG...THE LAKE EFFECT DOES NOT END UP TOO EXTENSIVE ON KEWEENAW
WHEN LACKING ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MOISTURE SEEN DURING
A LAKE ENHANCEMENT SETUP. CAVEAOT FOR POSSIBLY MORE LAKE EFECT COULD
BE IF AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS BTWN ONTONAGON AND
CALUMET AS SFC WINDS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BECOME MORE WSW.
FAVORED TIME FOR THAT POTENTIAL WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER
MANTIOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THOUGH MAIN LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP/MAINLY SNOW/ WITH THAT SHORTWAVE
LIKELY WILL STAY SOUTH FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI TO THE OHIO
VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...PASSAGE OF THE WAVE
WILL BRING WINDS TO MORE OF A NW DIRECTION. NW WINDS WITH H85 TEMPS
AT LEAST -12C IF NOT -15C AND MOISTURE TO INVERSION H8-H7/8-10KFT
AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD COMBINE TO INCREASE LES FOR AREAS FAVORED
BY NW FLOW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS STAYING CYCLONIC THROUGH THIS TIME ALSO
WITH SFC RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND SFC LOW DEEPENING OVER
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THAT SFC LOW TRACKS
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF LES FOR N-NW FLOW AREAS AS WELL. WEAK LES
SHOULD PERSIST INTO SUN FOR NW WIND FAVORED AREAS. BY AFTN WINDS
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE W AND INVERSIONS FALL TO 3KFT...SO INTENSITY
SHOULD TAKE A BIT HIT. WINDS BECOME SW LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND LES SHOULD FINISH UP AT THAT POINT.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY EARLY THANKSGIVING WEEK BECOMES MORE WNW-NW.
SERIES OF WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK
TROUGH PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED. WILL SEE TEMPS MODERATE COMPARED TO
THE CHILLY/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THAT AFFECT THE AREA THU/FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...APPEARS WARMER AND UNETTLED WEATHER
COULD SET UP INTO THANKSGIVING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECTS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
FAIRLY COMPLEX AVIATION FCST IN THE SHORT TERM AS THERE IS A SHARP
GRADIENT OF LLVL MSTR ACRS THE AREA AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB AND APX
RAOBS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTN AT SAW AS A GUSTY LLVL
SE WIND TAPS SOME DRIER AIR NOW IN LOWER MI. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST AT IWD AND CMX FARTHER FM THE DRY AIR SOURCE. AN AREA OF
MOISTER LLVL AIR AND SHOWERS WL ARRIVE TNGT...ALLOWING FOR IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT SAW. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE LLVL FLOW
MAKES THE FCST A BIT MORE DIFFICULT FOR IWD AND CMX AND MAY RESULT
IN MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WL BE GUSTY UNDER
A S LLJ THAT WL BE STRONGEST OVER SAW...ADDED LLWS TO THE FCST FOR
THAT LOCATION GIVEN HI STABILITY UNDER THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS
THAT WL MITIGATE MIXING. GUSTY S WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WL THEN
BE THE RULE AT IWD AND CMX BY LATE WED MRNG...BUT CONTINUED UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT INTO SAW WL LIKELY HOLD CIGS IN THE IFR RANGE THERE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A LO PRES CENTER MOVING N THRU THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND A HI PRES CENTER OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
RESULT IN SSE GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER THE NCENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THRU WED. A WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE LO
TRACK AND INFLUENCE OF TERRAIN WILL HOLD WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE UNDER GALE FORCE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AS
IT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND STAYS
STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY INTO FRIDAY. SE GALES AHEAD OF THE LOW
SHIFT TO THE WSW-W ON THU BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOLID
GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS THU AFTN INTO THU EVENING OVER CNTRL LK SUPERIOR AS TROUGH
CROSSES. WILL NOT ISSUE A STORM WATCH ATTM AS STORM FORCE WINDS
WOULD ONLY BE AROUND 3 HR IN DURATION AND NOT TOO WIDESPREAD. LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE STORM WATCH IF EXPECTATIONS ON WINDS
CHANGE.
WINDS DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT LIKELY
WILL REMAIN AT GALE FORCE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT FOR EASTERN SECTIONS.
WINDS WEAKEN FURTHER BLO 25 KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ264-266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ221-
248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
337 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
SE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WELL
IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION WITHIN MOIST WAA PATTERN. GULF IS WIDE OPEN AHEAD OF
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...TAPPING INTO DEEP MOISTURE WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO TELL THE TALE...SHOWING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM ERN TEXAS THRU MISSOURI...
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NORTHWARD INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA. WISCONSIN
HAS BEGUN TO GET IN ON THE ACTION...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP NOW THRU MUCH OF SRN AND WRN WISCONSIN. THIS
LEADING EDGE WILL PUSH NE INTO OUR CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.
DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND RATHER DRY SE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
TENDED TO ERODE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AS IT TRIES TO
PUSH NE INTO OUR CWA. PERSISTENT DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL FINALLY GIVE
WAY TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP PUSHING INTO OUR REGION FROM SW TO NE THRU
EARLY EVENING. NAM12...RAP13 AND HRRR ALL SUGGEST HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. ALL MODELS ALSO STILL SUGGEST A
LULL IN THE ACTION OVERNIGHT AS A SURGE OF DRIER AIR PUSHES THRU LWR
MICHIGAN. AGAIN...HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN WEST AS WELL AS
ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN WHERE THE ERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL HOLD ON. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POP FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...INCLUDING TIMING AND AMOUNT. BUT OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS...WITH HIGHEST POPS WEST AND A SIGNIFICANT DIMINISH
IN POPS OVERNIGHT. CERTAINLY NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH PLENTY OF
WARM AIR SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.
GUSTY SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL ACTUALLY FURTHER STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE LOW LISTS INTO
MINNESOTA. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PART OF OUR CWA TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE CONCERNS ON THE BIG WATERS.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: BIG CHANGES...WITH MORE
REALISTIC NOVEMBER WEATHER SET TO RETURN BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.
IMPETUS BEHIND SUCH CHANGES IS DEEP SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY DIGGING IN BEHIND IT...WILL PLOW A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT
AND ATTENDANT WIND/RAIN EVENT THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL POST FRONTAL SURGE OF CAA IS NOT TOO
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS. HOWEVER...AS NORTHERN
ENERGY AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT BECOME INCREASINGLY INVOLVED BY
FRIDAY...WOULD EXPECT CONDITIONS TO HAVE A MUCH MORE WINTRY FEEL TO
THEM (AND PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
THE WEEKEND...SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW FOR THOSE DETAILS).
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
(COVERAGE/TIMING/TYPE) AND WIND IMPACTS RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST.
DETAILS: LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY (AT LEAST FOR A WHILE) AS AREA
REMAINS IS DEEP SOUTH FLOW WILL OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING MINNESOTA LOW
PRESSURE AND APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT. MOISTURE PROFILES RATHER
REMARKABLE...UP NEAR 1.25 INCHES...WHICH IS IN RECORD SETTING
TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WAVE OPENING UP
JUST TO OUR WEST...OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY STRUNG OUT THROUGH THE DAY...WITH TWO CENTERS OF
HEAVIEST RAINS...ONE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST COLLOCATED WITH BEST MID
LEVEL SUPPORT...AND ONE WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTH IN VICINITY OF RER
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND BETTER FORCED LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
NOW...WITH ALL THAT SAID...SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS OCCLUDED FRONT WORKS OVER OVERHEAD MOIST
AIRMASS...BUT JUST NOT SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS
(DESPITE THE RECORD AVAILABLE MOISTURE). OTHER STORY WILL BE FAIRLY
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH OVERHEAD GRADIENT AND BUFKIT DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS AOA 30.
OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH AGGRESSIVE MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT ENDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST.
INITIAL POST-FRONT AIRMASS LOOKS A TOUCH TOO WARM FOR ANY LAKE
CONTRIBUTION...ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS PRIMARY COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS INITIAL SHOT OF CAA DOES SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT SHORELINE AREAS. NAM-WRF PARTICULARLY
ROBUST...SHOWING NICE LOW LEVEL JET CORE OF 45 KNOTS...AND GOOD
PORTION OF WHICH IS ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GALES LOOK A
CERTAINTY (SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW)...AND DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
FOR LOW END WIND ADVISORY GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MACKINAC COUNTY
SHORELINE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. TOO EARLY WITH TOO MUCH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY FOR
ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY HEADLINE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE.
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES DEFINITELY TREND
COLD ENOUGH (H8 TEMPS FALLING TO THE NEGATIVE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) FOR SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION
TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY TARGETING THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. SYNOPTIC MOISTURE PROFILES NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH
BETTER MOISTURE CONFINED TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND POINTS NORTH. INITIAL
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL TREND TOWARDS ALL SNOW BY LATER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE...WITH FLOW TRAJECTORIES NOT TARGETING THE INTERIOR
COLDER HIGHLANDS. STILL...SUPPOSE SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TIP OF THE MITT AND UP INTO THE STRAITS
REGION OF EASTERN UPPER.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND AN INCOMING WAVE FROM
THE PLAINS...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT TO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WILL START BY MENTIONING THAT THERE IS A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY TIMEFRAME AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH ON SOLUTIONS. WILL GO
AHEAD AND COVER SEVERAL FEASIBLE SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT...BUT FULLY
EXPECT SEVERAL MORE FLIP-FLOPS UNTIL AFTER THE WAVE STARTS GETTING
SAMPLED AFTER IT MAKES ITS WAY ON LAND FROM THE PACIFIC.
TWO DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES COULD POTENTIALLY PLAY OUT AT THIS POINT.
SCENARIO 1 FOLLOWS ALONG THE LINES OF THE 17/12Z GFS AND THE 17/12Z
ECMWF. THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
RATHER QUICKLY SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING FOR HEIGHTS TO
REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP TROUGHING
EXPECTED TO SURGE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS...THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH IL/SOUTHERN MI BRINGING A DEEPENING SFC LOW THROUGH SRN
MI/THUMB IN WHAT COULD POTENTIALLY PLAY OUT AS A SNOWY WEEKEND
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MI.
SCENARIO 2...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 17/12Z GEM...17/12Z UKMET AND
MANY 06Z & 12Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...LAGS THE DEPARTURE OF THE INITIAL
SYSTEM RESULTING IN ENERGY SHEARING OUT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
WITH THE SFC LOW TRAVELING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND A NEAR TO
COMPLETE MISS FOR SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ACROSS NRN MI.
BEYOND SUNDAY...COULD SEE BOUTS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS
TYPICAL AREAS AND PERHAPS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OR TWO (WITH ASSOCIATED
LIGHT PRECIP) SLIDING THROUGH WHAT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS INTO
MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE SURGING INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SPREADS INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN. VSBYS WILL ALSO
LOWER TO PREVAILING MVFR WITHIN THIS AREA OF STEADY RAIN. THIS
INITIAL WAVE TO RAIN WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WINDS FURTHER STRENGTHEN
ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE SE UP TO 30 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL DEVELOP FOR ALL NEARSHORE AREAS
BY WEDNESDAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE THRU THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...PRODUCING A TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. WAVES OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE LOW...IMPACTING ALL NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ322.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
402 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND POSITION OF A
POTENTIAL OF A DEFORMATION SNOW BAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE WIDE
VARIATIONS OF POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THAT THE CLOSED LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST INCLEMENT WEATHER WAS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER AND WILL EVENTUALLY PULL TO THE NORTHEAST.
WE ARE BASICALLY WAITING FOR SOME DYNAMIC COOLING TO OCCUR IN THE
ENTIRE COLUMN ABOVE THE SURFACE. UNTIL THEN...WE COULD FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST CWA. MODELS TEND TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY 9
PM...ENOUGH COOLING WILL OCCUR TO CHANGE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE WEST TO SNOW. WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES...THIS COULD MEAN A
RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT THE
DEFORMATION BAND COULD BE QUITE A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT. ALSO...OUR HIGHER QPF MIGHT OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN A VERY NARROW BAND. OUR MAJOR CONCERN IS WHERE THIS BAND
MAY PIVOT...WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER
DAWSON AND PERHAPS BUFFALO COUNTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY
HIGH WITH THIS. I EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
VALLEY...SHERMAN...BUFFALO...AND PHELPS COUNTY...ON TOP OF THE
ORIGINAL THREE IN OUR WEST. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WE COULD EVEN HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET BEFORE CHANGE
TO SNOW LATER THIS EVENING.
FARTHER EAST...NOT TOO MUCH SNOW IF ANY EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY NOT COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ALSO ANOTHER WRENCH THROWN IN IS ANOTHER PERTURBATION
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE CURRENT ONE THAT COULD GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...WE SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH THAT THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH AXIS...CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...FINALLY START TO SEE SOME RELIEF FROM
THE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER KS
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY KEEP 15 TO
20 MPH SPEEDS AROUND INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE MAIN SFC LOW SLIDING THROUGH PORTIONS OF ONTARIO AND UNDER A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY SPEEDS
LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS ON THURSDAY IS NOT
HIGH...ESP ACROSS THE WEST...WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED BY WHATEVER
SNOWFALL THEY GET THE REST OF TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
LOWER 40S IN THE NW...TO NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO AFFECT THE CWA AS WE GET
INTO FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED
LIFT VIA AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF
ACCUMULATION DUE TO ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE...BUT NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA COULD PICK UP AN INCH OF SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH /ROUGHLY I-80 AND
SOUTH/...WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN DAYTIME TEMPS...HAVE A RA OR RA/SN
MIX GOING.
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH
MON...REMAINS DRY. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY...UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH
THE GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A
CHANCE AT PRECIP AGAIN SUNDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME RUN TO RUN
SUPPORT /WASNT PRESENT IN THE 06Z RUN/ AND SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS
BEFORE INSERTING ANY POPS. EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND LOWER/MID 40S SUN...BEFORE
BUMPING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL /UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S/ FOR MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE AS THESE HAVE
A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING VARIABLE AS A WINTER SYSTEM PULLS THROUGH
THE AREA. STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTH ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH
THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY TURN FROM
RAIN TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING. A NARROW DEFORMATION BAND LOOKS
LIKELY TO SET UP THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE WEST OF BOTH
TERMINALS...BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER EAST LATELY...WHICH
MAY DRAW VISIBILITY AT KEAR IN QUESTION AND COULD BE LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ039-046-
060-061-072-073-082.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1216 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
THE SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 06Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO. THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE PUMPING MOIST AIR TOWARD THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE
MAIN CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHWEST JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
MORNING MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVY SNOW BAND TO THE EAST ABOUT
50 MILES OR SO. THIS PLACES GREAT CONCERN FOR THE ONGOING
HEADLINES FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL NOT ADJUST HEADLINES YET AS
WE WAIT FOR THE BAND TO DEVELOP...WHICH HAS STARTED TO FILL IN
OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CHANGES ARE LIKELY IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL LOOKING LIKE A HEAVY BAND WITH SNOWFALL OF
MORE THAN 6 INCHES...JUST A LITTLE SHIFT TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS
THOUGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
THE MODELS INDICATE SOMETHING VERY INTERESTING WILL HAPPEN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SFC WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN STRONG
ALL DAY AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET. A HEAVY
SNOW BAND OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR RATES SHOULD FORM ACROSS SWRN
NEB THIS MORNING AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO NCNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW
WOULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT. WPC HAS RAISED THEIR SNOWFALL FORECAST TO 8 TO 15 PLUS
INCHES ACROSS SWRN NEB NORTHEAST THROUGH LINCOLN AND EVEN INTO LOGAN
COUNTY.
A BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. LOGAN COUNTY IS
UNDER REVIEW FOR AN UPGRADE AT THIS POINT PENDING THE PROGRESS OF
THIS WEATHER SITUATION. VIRTUALLY EVERY MODEL...9 OF THEM...FORECAST
500M AGL WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SFC WINDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH GUSTING TO 40 TO 45 MPH.
SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR THIS FORECAST. COLD AIR IS POURING
INTO WRN NEB WITH ALL AREAS IN SNOW WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THIS APPEARS
TO BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FORECAST. THIS RAIN-SNOW
LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TODAY AND BE VERY CLOSE TO THE ERN
EDGE OF HOLT COUNTY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE RAP INDICATES AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN-SNOW WATER THROUGH 02Z THIS
EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB AND THE 06Z NAM SHOWS 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE
SAME AREA THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. THE NAM HAS BE HITTING SWRN NEB
HARD FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS NOW AND SHOWS NO SIGN OF BACKING OFF.
NOTE THAT THE MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SO STRONG...A WARM
NOSE DEVELOPS WHICH WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND PERHAPS
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGEOVER OCCURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS FOLLOWS IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON THURSDAY EVENING...CYCLOGENESIS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COMING ACROSS NEBRASKA.
AS THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH...SYSTEM-RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
IN ITS WAKE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CUT OFF FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH AND DRIER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BRING
SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES...OR EVEN COLDER...
TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.
AS THE HIGH GOES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FOR KLBF THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES
AND COULD DROP TO 1/2SM OR LESS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. SNOW ENDS
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING TOMORROW.
KVTN ON THE OTHER HAND IS WELL NW OF THE EXPECTED BAND. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DO
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE. VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP TOWARDS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
WIDE SPREAD GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY...GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 KTS
ALL AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NEZ058-069-070.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ004-094.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NEZ022>024-035-036-056-057.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ005-008-025-026-037-071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ038.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MASEK
SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
905 AM PST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING WILL SINK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE NEXT MILD AND MOIST SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO NORTHWEST OREGON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MOIST CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED AT WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING. KAST PROFILER DATA
INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.1 TO 1.2 INCHES AS OF 16Z.
IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES IN SW WA AND THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND
COAST RANGE LAST EVENING...WITH SOME SPOTS SHOWING SEVERAL HOURS OF
0.3 TO 0.5 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND RAP WERE WOEFULLY UNDERDONE ON THE PRECIP. KAST PROFILER
DATA ALSO SHOWS SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000 FT THIS MORNING.
MODELS STILL HAVE THE WARM FRONT LIFTING A BIT MORE NORTH THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP PUSHED INTO SW
WASHINGTON. 850 MB WEST FLOW OF 40-60 KT INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
PROVIDE VERY EFFICIENT OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SW
WA. THE MOIST BAROCLINIC ZONE FINALLY SAGS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 850
MB THERMAL GRADIENT AND 1000-700 MB THICKNESS PACKING REACHING THE S
WA COAST LATE THIS AFTEROON...THEN PUSHING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND
SOUTH INTERIOR VALLEYS BY MIDNIGHT. MODEL QPF FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS. GFS HAS A 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH 6-HR
BULLSEYE OVER THE S WA CASCADES IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY
1.5 TO 2.0 INCH 6-HR CORE OVER THE N OREGON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS
00Z-06Z WED. QPF GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR NW
OREGON LOOKS GOOD...BUT MAY SEE A COUPLE MORE RIVERS REACH FLOOD ONCE
NEW RIVER FORECASTS ARE OUT.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AND EXPECT STRONG
WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE S WA AND N
OREGON COAST...THE WILLAPA HILLS AND N OREGON COAST RANGE. MAY ALSO
GET A FEW GUSTS TO 60 MPH ON THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL HEADLANDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WARNING. PEAK WIND PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FROM AROUND 21Z THROUGH 02Z
WED. BESIDES STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BEACHES WILL HAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HAZARD OF DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES. THOSE PLANNING ON HEADING TO THE
BEACH DURING BREAKS IN THE RAIN MAY WANT TO KEEP THEIR DISTANCE FROM
THE WATERS EDGE.
THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN OREGON OVERNIGHT. BY THE
TIME SNOW LEVELS DROP BACK DOWN TO CASCADE PASS LEVELS...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. THUS...NOT EXPECTING SNOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET. ANOTHER MOIST WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT A
QUICK BURST OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADE PASSES AS THE MOISTURE FIRST
REACHES THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE
ABOVE 6000 FEET EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A POSSIBLE DELAY FOR
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY MOIST AS SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATERS
NEAR THE ORIGIN POINT ARE AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH IS THE HIGHEST WE
HAVE SEEN FROM THE RECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENTS. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL DECREASE AS THE FRONT NEARS THE COAST...BUT THERE IS GREAT
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN FOR THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...AND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH FOR THE INTERIOR LOW
LANDS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE MOISTURE CORE
IS AIMED MORE AT NORTHWEST OREGON INSTEAD OF WESTERN WASHINGTON.
MODELS FORECAST THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN ENDING THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP
LIMIT THE RAINFALL TOTALS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE
THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NW OREGON RATHER THAN SW
WASHINGTON. THE RIVERS TO THE SOUTH HAVE TAKEN LESS OF A BEATING THE
PAST WEEK THAN WASHINGTON...IN REGARDS TO RAIN TOTALS...AND THIS MAY
ALSO HELP REDUCE FLOODING CONCERNS. RAIN WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY FRIDAY. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN...THOUGH LIKELY NOT VERY MUCH. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 4000 TO 6000 FT...SO THE PASSES MAY SEE
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE GFS BUILDS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA KEEPING US DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING THE SHOWERS OUT OF OUR AREA AND KEEPS
A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AT THE LATEST...WE
SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN AS WELL ...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SUGGEST ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING MORE RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...MIXED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SW WINDS THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING BEHIND A WARM FRONT PUSHING FURTHER INLAND.
EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH STRONGER
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
INLAND WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. RAIN TAPERS OFF TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY AM...WITH OVERALL CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MOSTLY VFR. THEN A
STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN...DECREASING CIGS AND VSBYS...AND VERY GUSTY
SW WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500-3500 FT IN RAIN
AND BREEZY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT THROUGH 23Z TUE-02Z WED
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
TONIGHT THEN NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING HEAVIER RAIN...GUSTY S WINDS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL BY
AROUND 03Z WED...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
/27
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 33-35 KT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL
START POPPING UP THE NEXT HOUR OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...SO GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. MODELS STILL SHOWING GALES THEN MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS 40-45 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW
LOCAL GUSTS NEAR 50 KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1-5 PM. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A RAPID
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY TONIGHT.
SEAS RUNNING BETWEEN 14 TO 18 FT THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT SEAS
TO PEAK AROUND 23 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS TO AFFECT TO THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
LOOKS TO HAVE A SURFACE LOW HEADED STRAIGHT FOR NW OREGON...WHICH
WOULD BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE
WATERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. MODELS THEN
AGREE ON HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NE PAC FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. CULLEN/27
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COAST RANGE OF
NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
NORTH OREGON COAST.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON
COAST.
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
PST WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
321 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
.DISCUSSION...WINDS NOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS
OF BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE NOW BEING REPORTED. WINDS ARE STRONG
BACK TO THE WEST AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW STACKS RATHER
NICELY WITH THE SFC SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INTENSIFICATION
IS ONGOING SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OUR GRADIENT TIGHTEN UP AS WE
PUSH INTO THIS EVENING.
LATEST HRRR MODEL HOLDS OFF WITH THE RAIN UNTIL AROUND 3AM FOR
OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS. THUS...A CONTINUING SPELL OF SUBSIDENCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN BAND WILL SERVE TO PERHAPS PROLONG THE
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. FOR THAT REASON...WILL OPT TO TEMPORALLY
EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY THOUGH 18Z ON WED.
OTW...A SOLID BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED
TSTMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID STATE WED MORNING. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...THE RAIN WILL REACH THE TN RIVER AROUND 3AM AND FROM
THERE WILL REACH OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES SOMETIME BETWEEN 10 AM AND
NOON. THE MODERATE AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 6 TO 8
HOURS AS IT WORKS EASTWARD. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
COMMON PLACE AND AS ALWAYS...LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS AND MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL.
MOVING ON...THE LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END ACROSS THE PLATEAU
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. DRY AND SEASONAL AIR WILL RETURN AFTER
THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST.
IN THE EXT FCST...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.. HOWEVER...MIDDLE TN WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF EACH AXIS AND SO...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
EXIST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL USHER IN THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. IN FACT...THE GFS ELUDES TO A
FEW SNOW FLURRIES WITH A WEAK SUNDAY NIGHT IMPULSE. BUT...SINCE THE
EURO IS DRY...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SNOW FLURRY CHANCES. OTW...LOOK
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...HIGHS UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 64 68 46 62 / 60 100 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 61 67 43 61 / 90 100 10 0
CROSSVILLE 59 68 47 61 / 10 100 40 0
COLUMBIA 65 67 42 63 / 70 100 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 64 65 43 63 / 70 100 10 0
WAVERLY 62 66 44 62 / 100 100 10 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
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