Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/16/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

 330 PM MST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
OCCUR MONDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N/125W WILL FILL THIS EVENING THEN MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SE ARIZONA SUNDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-
TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. ACCORDING TO SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS...SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE TUCSON METRO AREA DURING THE 15/09Z TO 15/11Z PERIOD.

THE 14/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS SE ARIZONA SUN. BASED ON THESE
SOLUTIONS...POPS WERE INCREASED SUN ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND
SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. 14/12Z GFS DEPICTED A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO EXIST SUN. THUS...EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SUN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW EXISTS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST
AND SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.

THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION SUN NIGHT AND MON TURNS TOWARD A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SWRN CONUS.
THERE WERE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC
REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW BY MIDDAY MON. FOR
INSTANCE...THE GFS/CMC WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE UPPER LOW TO
BE CENTERED OVER NWRN NEW MEXICO MIDDAY MON. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF WAS
FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND DEPICTED THE UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER NRN ARIZONA MIDDAY MON.

THERE WERE ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA
POPS FOR SUN NIGHT-MON. THUS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND
COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON. SNOW LEVELS EARLY SUN EVENING WILL
STILL BE ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOPS...THEN SNOW LEVELS LATE MON AFTERNOON
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 4000 FEET ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 5000 FEET NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT
SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM MON...AND WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE BRIEFLY ACHIEVED PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MON NIGHT WILL
BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AREA-
WIDE TUE-SAT AS NLY FLOW ALOFT TUE TRANSITIONS TO WLY FLOW ALOFT
NEXT SAT.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.25 - 0.75 INCH IN THE VALLEYS FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD...BUT ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT 0.50 - 0.75 INCH OF LIQUID AMOUNTS.
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 3-7
INCHES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET...AND FROM 1-4
INCHES ACROSS THE CATALINA/RINCON/GALIURO/PINALENO MOUNTAINS IN
PIMA/GRAHAM COUNTIES ABOVE 7000 FEET. ONLY TRACE ACCUMS TO PERHAPS
AN INCH OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR ON THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES.

HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE ABOUT 5-15 DEGS COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED
THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING UPON LOCATION...THEN ANOTHER 10-15 DEGS OF
COOLING WILL OCCUR MON. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
OCCUR MON NIGHT EXCEPT ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. FREEZE WARNINGS AND/OR HARD FREEZE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MON NIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR
TUE-FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY NEXT FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 16/00Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS 9-12K FT MSL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS ABOVE. CLOUDS
SPREADING NORTH AND LOWERING TO SCT-BKN 5-7K FT...BKN-OVC 9-12K FT
AFT 15/06Z AND CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED -SHRA WILL DEVELOP SOUTH TO WEST OF KTUS AFTER 15/05Z...
THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY.
SURFACE WIND ELY/SELY AT 5-15 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
THEN BECOMING S-SW 9-17 KTS AFTER 15/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
SUNDAY AREA WIDE AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A SECOND
STRONGER STORM WILL THEN BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. IT WILL DRY OUT
TUESDAY ONWARD WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES LINGERING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

 925 AM MST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY. CONTINUED COLD TUESDAY BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND PREVAILS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED CLEAR SKIES TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT
THIS TIME. A FEW TO SCATTERED CIRRIFORM CLOUDS WERE MOVING NEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. A VERY DRY SURFACE
REGIME WAS ONGOING WITH DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER TEENS-MID 20S. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE GENERALLY 3-8
DEGS F WARMER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 14/12Z KTWC DEPICTED A VERY DRY
PROFILE...WITH TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.21 INCH. 14/12Z UPPER
AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A WEAK (571 DM) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
NW ARIZONA...AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED FURTHER SW NEAR
29N/127W. THESE FEATURES WERE DISTINCTLY APPARENT VIA WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SWLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS SE ARIZONA.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE WEAK UPPER LOWS ARE
PROGGED TO FILL BY THIS EVENING. 14/12Z NAM/GFS REMAINED CONSISTENT
VERSUS THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING INCREASED
PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUN. THE NAM CONTINUED
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE 12Z GFS...AND THE 14/00Z ECMWF/
CMC SOLUTIONS...WITH THE DEPICTION OF HIGHER TO CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
QPF/S TONIGHT. HAVE EVEN NOTED THAT THE NAM DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S TO
OCCUR TODAY GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN
ERN COCHISE COUNTY. SEVERAL RUC SOLUTIONS HAVE MAINTAINED PRECIP-
FREE CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM POTENTIAL
PRECIP SCENARIO FOR TODAY.

AT ANY RATE...MOSTLY CIRRIFORM CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY...THEN
CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTENING OCCURS ESPECIALLY ABOVE
700 MB. THE 14/15Z RUC SUGGESTS NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THIS
FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 15/05Z. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...OR
SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SONORA MEXICO. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO FRI...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 15/18Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT MSL TODAY...
THEN CLOUD DECKS LOWERING TO AROUND 8K-12K FT MSL TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED -SHRA WILL DEVELOP SOUTH
TO WEST OF KTUS AFTER ABOUT 15/02Z...THEN -SHRA SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WIND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING... THEN
SURFACE WIND ELY/SELY AT 5-15 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EXISTS ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR SOME
LOCALES SUNDAY...THEN WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER GILA
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD TUESDAY. EXPECT LESS WIND TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /310 AM MST/...
TONIGHT...INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENING UP FROM TOP DOWN. PW VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 0.50" TO
0.75" RANGE WITH VALUES UP TO AN INCH JUST S OF THE INTNL BORDER.
NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO HAVE THE HIGHER PW VALUES OF THE MODELS.
AS THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW APPROACHES BAJA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...DYNAMICS OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

SUNDAY...THE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES. WIDE RANGE
OF QPF VALUES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE NAM ON THE HIGHER END.
WENT WITH A MODEL COMPROMISE WITH VALUES FROM TUCSON S AND E RANGING
FROM 0.20" TO 0.55" WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN COCHISE COUNTY. VERY
LIGHT QPF VALUES OUT IN WRN PIMA COUNTY. SNOW LEVEL REMAINING ABOVE
THE MOUNTAIN TOPS. COOLER WITH HIGHS 5-12 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...DYNAMICS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING
THE PACIFIC NW. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS IN THE 120-160 METER RANGE WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CRASHING DOWN INTO
THE 3500 TO 5000 FOOT LEVEL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS FORECAST TO SEE 3-5" OF NEW SNOW WITH LESS AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE OTHER SKY ISLANDS. MUCH COLDER MONDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15
DEGREES COLDER THAN SUNDAY. IT WILL FEEL RATHER RAW WHEN YOU COMBINE
THE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE EQUATION.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...TROF AXIS MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. TURNING MUCH COLDER
WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS IN WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AND PARTS OF S-CENTRAL
PINAL COUNTY. HARD FREEZE TO FREEZE WARNINGS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

COOL AND DRY NLY FLOW OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REBOUND WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONGER WARMUP COMMENCES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MODERATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

 754 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST
WITH MOVEMENT ONSHORE. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY REVVING UP LATE IN THE
NIGHT ACROSS COASTAL MIAMI-DADE. SOMETHING TO MONITOR. POP TRENDS
IN THE FORECAST LOOK GOOD...INCREASING FROM N-S OVERNIGHT. SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
/GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTED SOUTH TODAY AND NOW LIES ACROSS THE
KEYS. DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE 70F
ISODROSOTHERM (DEWPOINT LINE) NOW DOWN TO MIAMI. THE DISPLACEMENT
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND HIGHER MOISTURE HAS CAUSED MUCH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY WITH THE CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER THE KEYS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY AND HIGHER MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY BACK
TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS SOUTH FL. SO POPS
REFLECT AN INCREASING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING TONIGHT.
GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE, AS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTORMS RETURN, LOCALIZED
STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT MID-LATE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE
WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL ANTICIPATED.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN
ABOUND. SO THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO BE ENTERING NORTH FL ON THU. HOW MUCH PUSH SOUTH
THIS FRONT GETS IS UNCERTAIN...BUT LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE A
FURTHER PUSH TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTH FL NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF STARTING NEXT
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK IS INCREDIBLE WITH REGARDS TO THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT...SO AGAIN THE
FORECAST IN FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME. FOR NOW MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS WITH TEMPS ABOVE
AVERAGE. /GREGORIA

MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...BUT SEAS IN THE
GULF STREAM ARE PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 7 FEET TONIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. SO HAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR THE GULF STREAM
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTORMS SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT-MONDAY. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  83  73  85 /  30  50  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  82  73  84 /  40  60  60  60
MIAMI            74  83  73  84 /  50  70  60  60
NAPLES           70  86  71  90 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

 428 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AND MOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE DRIVING THE SFC LOW WILL WEAKEN SOME BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND
BE WEST OF THE HUDSON BAY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY, MAINLY WITH TIMING. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER
WITH THE FRONT, PUTTING IT THROUGH TLH BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ECMWF TRAILS BY ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE BOTH BRING THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BEFORE STALLING IT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT, SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN MCO AND THE LAKE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA,
PUTTING SOUTH FLORIDA BACK UNDER AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CURRENTLY FORECASTING THE WIND TO BE SOMEWHAT
WEAKER THAN THIS WEEKEND.

FOR TONIGHT, THE HRRR IS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN SOME, DRIVING THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE SHOWERS TO AN END THIS EVENING. THE WIND WILL BE
BREEZY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE...BUT OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS /ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/ WILL PERSIST
FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOR NOW HANDLED
WITH VCSH /NEAR TERM TEMPO GROUPS/. BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. NE WIND 10-15 KT WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ALL BUT STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST TOMORROW. THE WIND WILL BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS, WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KTS. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED GUSTS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO
BUILD, ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM, WHERE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FT TOMORROW. THE STRONG WIND WILL ALSO CAUSE
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  82  76  83 /  40  40  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  81  75  83 /  50  50  50  60
MIAMI            72  82  75  84 /  60  60  50  60
NAPLES           71  86  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...23/SK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

 524 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

...Updated Aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

Short range models indicate a strong upper level trough of low
pressure digging southeast out of the Pacific Northwest into the
Four Corners Region by mid-day Monday. As this system approaches,
the westerly flow aloft across the Western High Plains will become
more southwesterly while also becoming increasingly more difluent.
Meanwhile, moisture will continue to advect northward into central
and portions of western Kansas within a prevailing low level
southerly flow. Although NAM/GFS model soundings indicate very
little in the way of instability present, a few showers may
develop across central Kansas and eastern portions of southwest
Kansas tonight as a series of H5 vort maxima begin to eject out of
the approaching trough axis in the Desert Southwest and lifting
northeast into the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. Assisting
dynamic support aloft will be a slowly intensifying southwest flow
as a strong upper level jet transitioning through the trough
axis, begins to nose northeastward into the high plains. Any
developing light/moderate rain overnight is expected to dissipate
toward mid to late Monday morning.

Increasing surface dewpoints due to moisture advection and
redeveloping cloud cover tonight will result in warmer low
temperatures. Expect lows only down into the 50s(F) across south
central Kansas with the 40s(F) likely toward west central and
extreme southwest Kansas. Well above normal temperatures are
expected Monday as a prevailing low level southerly flow continues
to enhance warm air advection into western Kansas, raising H85
temperatures into the mid teens(C). Highs are expected to climb
into the 60s(F) with near 70F possible in some locations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

Chances for thunderstorms pick up late Monday afternoon and evening
as a strong closed upper level low shifts eastward out of the
Four Corners Region into the Central Rockies and Western High
Plains. In response, a developing surface low across eastern
Colorado and extreme western Kansas will deepen as it begins to
shift further eastward into western Kansas. Meanwhile, a
developing dryline attendant to the surface low, and extending
southward across southwest Kansas, will sharpen as it migrates
eastward. As low/mid level instability increases ahead of the
dryline, the flow aloft will continue to intensify as the jet
begins to lift northeast into eastern and much of central Kansas
with a left exit region setting up across the area in question.
As a result, showers and thunderstorm are likely along and ahead
of the dryline toward Monday evening. The strength of the flow
aloft combined with SBCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/KG may increase
the potential for severe storms, particularly across central and
south central Kansas.

There is a chance for precip on Tuesday on the backside of the
advancing surface low as it pushes further east out of western
Kansas. Based on the NAM/ECMWF, precip development will be
possible within a band of H7 frontogenesis behind the front as
it and the surface low depart eastward. Although plenty of
uncertainty remains as to the track of this system, the better
chance for precip looks to be across west central Kansas with
precip type being primarily snow based on GFS/ECMWF model
soundings. Snow amounts remain questionable this far out. Drier
conditions are then expected Wednesday through the end of the week
as a westerly flow aloft develops behind the departing upper level
trough.

Colder temperatures are likely Tuesday in wake of a cold
front pushing through western Kansas during the day. Highs are
only expected to reach up into the upper 30s(F) across west
central Kansas to the 40s(F) further south and east. A few 50s(F)
may be possible across south central Kansas ahead of the frontal
boundary. More seasonal temperatures are expected for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

18Z NAM BUFR soundings, HRRR, and RAP were all in good agreement
this afternoon with IFR and LIFR stratus redeveloping early
tonight at all three taf sites as gusty south winds decrease to
around 15 knots. At this time it MVFR conditions at DDC will
decrease to IFR conditions by 03z. HYS also will experience
decreasing ceilings between 00z and 03z. GCK can expect to have
IFR ceilings between 02z and 05z. As ceilings lower and the lower
atmosphere saturates an upper level disturbance will cross
southwest Kansas early tonight. This will bring a chance for some
very light rainshowers, however the probability is less than 30
percent. As this upper level disturbance passes overnight ceilings
may briefly improve during the pre dawn hours. Areas of fog will
be possible through early Monday morning, however give the wind
speeds below 900mb visibilities are not expected to fall lower
than 2-3 miles. Ceilings will improve and VFR conditions are
expected by late morning as gusty south winds will increase into
the 20 to 25 knot range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  69  42  45 /  10  50  60  60
GCK  48  68  38  40 /  10  30  30  70
EHA  47  67  34  37 /  10  30  30  70
LBL  50  69  38  41 /  20  30  40  60
HYS  50  68  43  46 /  20  50  50  60
P28  52  68  49  55 /  60  70  70  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 600 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON HAS PROVIDED CLEAR
SKIES TO MOST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST AND
CAUSES THE UPPER FLOW TO BACK TO SOUTHERLY. A SMALL AREA OF CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF DULUTH/SUPERIOR HAD SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS SINCE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN
COVERAGE. THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THE CLOUD WILL DIMINISH...BUT
EARLIER RUNS OF THE RAP INDICATED THE CLOUD WILL BE ABOUT GONE BY
NOW...BUT THAT HAS NOT OCCURRED. WE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THE
HEAD OF THE LAKE...THEN INCREASE ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO
AROUND 0.75 INCHES OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA...THEN TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH
BY 00Z TUESDAY. THESE VALUES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUE REPORTED AT KINL ON NOVEMBER 16 OF 0.79
INCHES. WE EXPECT FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS
WELL...MAINLY LATE.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR CWA. WE ADDED
THE MENTION OF FOG TO ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT EXPECT IT TO
BE MOST WIDESPREAD AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A HALF
INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 IN THE ARROWHEAD AND TO
AROUND 40 FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
RISE LATE AS CLOUDS THICKEN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
FORTIES TO AROUND FIFTY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
N/NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A NEARLY CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG WAA IN THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH BROAD LARGE-SCALE LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LOW AND AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...PWATS AROUND
1 INCH...WILL ALLOW FOR AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS
TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
WEAK...BUT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. TWO WAVES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 100-
200 J/KG WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE REGION TUES AND WED...AND HELP
TRIGGER THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS.

AS THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH NRN MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED A
SECONDARY LOW FROM THE NW WILL PHASE WITH THE PARENT LOW AND ALSO
DRAW DOWN A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS TO CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE NE ACROSS ONTARIO WED
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT BE LACKING OF MOISTURE AND ONLY
BE CAPABLE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. AT THIS MOMENT IT
APPEARS ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MAY SEE AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES. THE PERSISTENT COLD NWLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

THE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 40S. THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THE AMT OF NIGHT
TIME COOLING. HOWEVER...THE COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF AS OF 00Z. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR IS GENERATING STRATUS NEAR KDLH...WHICH IN TIME SHOULD
SPREAD TO KDLH BY 04Z THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LOW. THE STRATUS
MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO KHIB THIS EVENING AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO
FORM AND SPREAD WEST. OTHERWISE...AN INCOMING WAVE OF MVFR STRATUS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT WILL BRING A LAYER
OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS TO THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 05Z
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. A BAND OF RAIN
TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING AROUND 18Z BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  48  45  49 /  30  90  70 100
INL  36  49  45  49 /  10  60  70  80
BRD  42  51  47  51 /  20  70  80  90
HYR  38  51  45  51 /  20  70  70 100
ASX  36  52  44  53 /  20  70  70  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...LE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 1132 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES DEAL WITH NAILING DOWN CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A SHIELD OF CIRRUS WAS STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER WHAT WAS EARLIER EXPECTED
THAT COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
WI...WITH WINDS NOW SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE FA.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION ACTUALLY SAW A SLOW RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER SPREADING IN.  STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE MAIN
UPPER JET LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15MPH ARE
LIKELY DURING THE DAY. FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY...A MIX DOWN FROM 950MB
OFF THE RAP INDICATED A DECENT SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI.  ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN...DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 6OS /BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE STRONGEST THERE/...WHILE EASTERN MN SEES HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. WESTERN WI WILL BE COOLER...WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED AND A
FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S. WITH A WARMER AIR
MASS IN PLACE...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BY FAR THE BEST DAY OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS COMBINED WITH A NW-SE
ORIENTED H5 RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY
CLR SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. THOUGH A
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL SLIGHTLY TRAIL THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE
REGION...IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT TEMPERATURES RISING TO
THE UPR 50S TO ARND 60.

FROM MONDAY ON THROUGH THE WEEK...THE SCENARIO CHANGES DUE TO A
PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS MOVING ONSHORE THE W COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET BECOMES A MORE ACTIVE
CYCLOGENESIS PARTICIPANT. GOMEX MOISTURE RUSHING INTO THE AREA MON
IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE TROF...MAINLY WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN THE ARRIVING TROF AND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR HIGH AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL LATER IN THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCOMING TROF.
EVEN BEFORE IT ARRIVES...SEVERAL MIDLVL TROF AXES RIDING NEWD
WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPARKING OFF SHWRS MON INTO MON
NIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASED PWATS TO THE 1-1.25 INCH AREA...IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD MOD-HVY POCKETS OF RAIN.

THE MAIN ACTION THEN COMMENCES TUE AS SIGNIFICANT PVA IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROF...PLUS THE DEEPENING OF THE TROF ITSELF INCLUDING THE
FORMATION OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WITHIN IT BY MIDDAY TUE...WILL AID
IN CYCLOGENESIS OF A COMPLEX LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE PLAINS. THE
TROF WILL THEN KICK IT NEWD AND KEEP IT IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF...
MAKING FOR A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITHIN A HIGHLY
MOIST ATMOS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
THRU WED WHEN IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A CDFNT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE DEEP CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL SHIFT ENE
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. POTENT JETTING IN THE LOW-
AND MID-LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD LIFT WITHIN THE
ENVIRON OF HIGH MOISTURE TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FCST FOR WED ON INTO
THU.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF INCLUDING TSTMS FOR TUE WHEN PVA AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE GREATEST AND IN BEST CONJUNCTION WITH UPR
JETTING. HOWEVER...THE CONCERN IS THAT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH THE TSTMS INTO TUE NIGHT OR
EVEN WED. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON
THE OCCURRENCE OF TSTMS BETWEEN TUE AND WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON THE TIMING. ATTM...AM HIGHLIGHTING TUE FOR TSTMS BUT LATER
FCSTS COULD EASILY ADJUST IT TO LATER PERIODS.

AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE PROLONGED DURATION OF HAVING 12-HOUR
PERIODS WITH PWATS AROUND AND IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH MAY WELL
TRANSLATE TO RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES...POSSIBLY ISOLD 3-4
INCHES...THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL EJECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POINTS
EASTWARD LATE WED NIGHT THRU THU...CONFINING POPS TO MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA THU THROUGH FRI DUE TO WEAK WRAP-
AROUND TROF AXES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
ADVERTISE SOME DRY PERIODS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS
IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP OVER
CENTRAL NOAM. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DOWN MODIFIED POLAR AIR
INTO THE REGION...SPELLING A COOLING TREND THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...PRIMARILY FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WI /KSTC-KRNH-KEAU/...WHERE WINDS MAY DIP TO AROUND 3 KTS. HOWEVER
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.

KMSP...
ONLY SCT CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS AOB 10KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-DZRA POSSIBLE. WIND SSE AT 15G25KT.
TUE...MVFR WITH RA...IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS ESE AT 10-20KT.
WED...MVFR WITH -RA...IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10-20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...LS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 444 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES DEAL WITH NAILING DOWN CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A SHIELD OF CIRRUS WAS STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER WHAT WAS EARLIER EXPECTED
THAT COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
WI...WITH WINDS NOW SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE FA.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION ACTUALLY SAW A SLOW RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER SPREADING IN.  STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE MAIN
UPPER JET LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15MPH ARE
LIKELY DURING THE DAY. FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY...A MIX DOWN FROM 950MB
OFF THE RAP INDICATED A DECENT SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI.  ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN...DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 6OS /BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE STRONGEST THERE/...WHILE EASTERN MN SEES HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. WESTERN WI WILL BE COOLER...WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED AND A
FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S. WITH A WARMER AIR
MASS IN PLACE...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BY FAR THE BEST DAY OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS COMBINED WITH A NW-SE
ORIENTED H5 RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY
CLR SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. THOUGH A
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL SLIGHTLY TRAIL THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE
REGION...IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT TEMPERATURES RISING TO
THE UPR 50S TO ARND 60.

FROM MONDAY ON THROUGH THE WEEK...THE SCENARIO CHANGES DUE TO A
PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS MOVING ONSHORE THE W COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET BECOMES A MORE ACTIVE
CYCLOGENESIS PARTICIPANT. GOMEX MOISTURE RUSHING INTO THE AREA MON
IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE TROF...MAINLY WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN THE ARRIVING TROF AND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR HIGH AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL LATER IN THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCOMING TROF.
EVEN BEFORE IT ARRIVES...SEVERAL MIDLVL TROF AXES RIDING NEWD
WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPARKING OFF SHWRS MON INTO MON
NIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASED PWATS TO THE 1-1.25 INCH AREA...IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD MOD-HVY POCKETS OF RAIN.

THE MAIN ACTION THEN COMMENCES TUE AS SIGNIFICANT PVA IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROF...PLUS THE DEEPENING OF THE TROF ITSELF INCLUDING THE
FORMATION OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WITHIN IT BY MIDDAY TUE...WILL AID
IN CYCLOGENESIS OF A COMPLEX LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE PLAINS. THE
TROF WILL THEN KICK IT NEWD AND KEEP IT IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF...
MAKING FOR A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITHIN A HIGHLY
MOIST ATMOS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
THRU WED WHEN IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A CDFNT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE DEEP CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL SHIFT ENE
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. POTENT JETTING IN THE LOW-
AND MID-LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD LIFT WITHIN THE
ENVIRON OF HIGH MOISTURE TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FCST FOR WED ON INTO
THU.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF INCLUDING TSTMS FOR TUE WHEN PVA AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE GREATEST AND IN BEST CONJUNCTION WITH UPR
JETTING. HOWEVER...THE CONCERN IS THAT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH THE TSTMS INTO TUE NIGHT OR
EVEN WED. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON
THE OCCURRENCE OF TSTMS BETWEEN TUE AND WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON THE TIMING. ATTM...AM HIGHLIGHTING TUE FOR TSTMS BUT LATER
FCSTS COULD EASILY ADJUST IT TO LATER PERIODS.

AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE PROLONGED DURATION OF HAVING 12-HOUR
PERIODS WITH PWATS AROUND AND IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH MAY WELL
TRANSLATE TO RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES...POSSIBLY ISOLD 3-4
INCHES...THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL EJECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POINTS
EASTWARD LATE WED NIGHT THRU THU...CONFINING POPS TO MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA THU THROUGH FRI DUE TO WEAK WRAP-
AROUND TROF AXES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
ADVERTISE SOME DRY PERIODS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS
IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP OVER
CENTRAL NOAM. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DOWN MODIFIED POLAR AIR
INTO THE REGION...SPELLING A COOLING TREND THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS BEFORE SKIES CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT AND WINDS TAPER BELOW 7
KNOTS.

KMSP...NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND S AT 10G15KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-DZ POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G25KT.
TUE...MVFR WITH RA...IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 15G25KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 436 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES DEAL WITH NAILING DOWN CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A SHIELD OF CIRRUS WAS STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER WHAT WAS EARLIER EXPECTED
THAT COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
WI...WITH WINDS NOW SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE FA.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION ACTUALLY SAW A SLOW RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER SPREADING IN.  STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE MAIN
UPPER JET LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15MPH ARE
LIKELY DURING THE DAY. FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY...A MIX DOWN FROM 950MB
OFF THE RAP INDICATED A DECENT SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI.  ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN...DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 6OS /BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE STRONGEST THERE/...WHILE EASTERN MN SEES HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. WESTERN WI WILL BE COOLER...WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED AND A
FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S. WITH A WARMER AIR
MASS IN PLACE...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BY FAR THE BEST DAY OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS COMBINED WITH A NW-SE
ORIENTED H5 RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY
CLR SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. THOUGH A
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL SLIGHTLY TRAIL THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE
REGION...IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT TEMPERATURES RISING TO
THE UPR 50S TO ARND 60.

FROM MONDAY ON THROUGH THE WEEK...THE SCENARIO CHANGES DUE TO A
PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS MOVING ONSHORE THE W COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET BECOMES A MORE ACTIVE
CYCLOGENESIS PARTICIPANT. GOMEX MOISTURE RUSHING INTO THE AREA MON
IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE TROF...MAINLY WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN THE ARRIVING TROF AND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR HIGH AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL LATER IN THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCOMING TROF.
EVEN BEFORE IT ARRIVES...SEVERAL MIDLVL TROF AXES RIDING NEWD
WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPARKING OFF SHWRS MON INTO MON
NIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASED PWATS TO THE 1-1.25 INCH AREA...IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD MOD-HVY POCKETS OF RAIN.

THE MAIN ACTION THEN COMMENCES TUE AS SIGNIFICANT PVA IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROF...PLUS THE DEEPENING OF THE TROF ITSELF INCLUDING THE
FORMATION OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WITHIN IT BY MIDDAY TUE...WILL AID
IN CYCLOGENESIS OF A COMPLEX LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE PLAINS. THE
TROF WILL THEN KICK IT NEWD AND KEEP IT IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF...
MAKING FOR A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITHIN A HIGHLY
MOIST ATMOS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
THRU WED WHEN IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A CDFNT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE DEEP CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL SHIFT ENE
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. POTENT JETTING IN THE LOW-
AND MID-LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD LIFT WITHIN THE
ENVIRON OF HIGH MOISTURE TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FCST FOR WED ON INTO
THU.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF INCLUDING TSTMS FOR TUE WHEN PVA AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE GREATEST AND IN BEST CONJUNCTION WITH UPR
JETTING. HOWEVER...THE CONCERN IS THAT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH THE TSTMS INTO TUE NIGHT OR
EVEN WED. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON
THE OCCURRENCE OF TSTMS BETWEEN TUE AND WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON THE TIMING. ATTM...AM HIGHLIGHTING TUE FOR TSTMS BUT LATER
FCSTS COULD EASILY ADJUST IT TO LATER PERIODS.

AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE PROLONGED DURATION OF HAVING 12-HOUR
PERIODS WITH PWATS AROUND AND IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH MAY WELL
TRANSLATE TO RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES...POSSIBLY ISOLD 3-4
INCHES...THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL EJECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POINTS
EASTWARD LATE WED NIGHT THRU THU...CONFINING POPS TO MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA THU THROUGH FRI DUE TO WEAK WRAP-
AROUND TROF AXES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
ADVERTISE SOME DRY PERIODS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS
IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP OVER
CENTRAL NOAM. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DOWN MODIFIED POLAR AIR
INTO THE REGION...SPELLING A COOLING TREND THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER
CONCERNS.

KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER
CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND S AT 10G15KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-DZ POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G25KT.
TUE...MVFR WITH RA...IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 15G25KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...CLF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

 701 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY BEFORE DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MODERATING TREND DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR AND MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS WHAT IS A SMALL
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH
A COMMA SHAPED SIGNATURE NOTED ON IMAGERY. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS PUSHING
EAST ACROSS EASTERN CLARK COUNTY INTO MOHAVE COUNTY AND POPS WERE
INCREASED FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BAND AS
WELL AS ADDING IN THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. BEHIND THIS, THERE
IS A DEFINED BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION BUT ADDITIONAL BATCHES
OF SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY SO POPS WERE TWEAKED UP A BIT THERE.

ONE THING THE SHOWERS HAVE DONE IS MOISTENED UP THE ATMOSPHERE
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE TOP DOWN. DEWPOINTS ARE UP INTO THE 40S IN LAS
VEGAS WHICH IS A BIG BUST ON THE END OF GUIDANCE AND WHAT WE HAD IN
THE FORECAST SO THESE WERE TWEAKED. THIS CREATES TWO ISSUES. ONE IS
THAT WINDS ARE NOT REALLY GUSTING AS WE HAVE A LOT LESS DRY AIR AND
THERMAL CONTRAST TO WORK WITH AND WIND SPEEDS WERE LOWERED ACROSS
ALL AREAS THIS EVENING AND FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE ADVISORIES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WE WILL STILL GET THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AHEAD OF THE FRONT MY THOUGHT IS THAT ADVISORY
WINDS WILL BE LOCALIZED OUTSIDE OF THE OWENS VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING DUST WAS ALSO REMOVED
FROM MOST AREAS GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND.

THE SECOND CONCERN WITH THE EXTRA MOISTURE IS SNOW LEVELS. UNLESS WE
DRY OUT MORE, IT WILL BE TOUGHER TO GET SNOW DOWN FURTHER EVEN WHEN
WE WET BULB WITH DEWPOINTS INITIALLY WELL ABOVE 32 DEGREES. HOWEVER,
THE COLDER NATURE OF THE AIR MASS WILL DROP TEMPS SHARPLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. ON THE OTHER HAND, AT THAT POINT WE MAY SEE TEMPS DROP CLOSER
TO DEWPOINTS AND AS THESE PLUNGE THROUGH THE 30S PRECIP COULD HAVE
LESS OF A DRY LOW-LEVEL TO OVERCOME WHICH WOULD BETTER RESULT IN
SOMETHING REACHING THE GROUND.

THE LATEST GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. ANOTHER UPDATE
WILL FOLLOW LATER THIS EVENING IF NEED BE.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 315 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS
BEGUN TO SPREAD ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL HIRES MODELS SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH SOUTHERN NEVADA
EARLY EVENING AND THEN INTO MOHAVE COUNTY BY LATE EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS BAND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6000 FEET...BUT AS IT REACHES MOHAVE COUNTY
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN THAT SNOW LEVELS
COULD DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY LATE EVENING. WITH THE EARLIER
TIMING IN PRECIPITATION DID GO AHEAD AND CHANGE THE START TIME OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOHAVE COUNTY FROM 3AM TO 10PM THIS
EVENING. STILL THINK THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE MOST OF THE
CRITICAL TRAVEL AREAS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
EARLIER ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING WINDS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. SO FAR WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND CLARK COUNTIES HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE...BUT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
INCREASING AND DO EXPECTED WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST IS MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA BETWEEN 10-12Z
MONDAY MORNING WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALSO DRAMATICALLY DROP SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
THE MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXCEPT FOR MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE DOWN TO 3000 FEET BY MID MORNING. THE BEST AREAS OF
SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE GRAND CANYON PARASHANT
NATIONAL MONUMENT WHERE AMOUNTS COULD REACH 6 INCHES. 2-3 INCHES
OVER COLORADO CITY AND PIPE SPRINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE IS A
CONCERN FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE VIRGIN RIVER GORGE
ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION FALLS AT A HEAVY ENOUGH RATE. AREAS TO
THE WEST SUCH AS CLARK...SOUTHERN NYE...AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DOWN TO 2000-
2500 FEET OR SO ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE
ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT MORE DYNAMIC. THERE COULD BE SOME CONCERNS FOR
AREAS SUCH AS MOUNTAIN PASS ON I-15 AND MOUNTAIN SPRINGS SUMMIT
BETWEEN LAS VEGAS AND PAHRUMP...BUT IF THERE ARE ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME THEY LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL RATHER
WINTERLIKE ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS OVER MOST AREAS...BUT SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES COULD
SEE WARNING LEVEL WINDS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE 20-30 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTHERLY BREEZES. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ENHANCE THOSE NORTHERLY BREEZES JUST A BIT
FOR FRIDAY, BUT NOTHING TOO STRONG. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES AT SOME
POINT, YET TIMING AND LOCATION ARE WAY OFF. EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS
LIKE A DRY WEEKEND FOR NOW. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT WILL
INCREASE AND BE 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
PUSHING 70 IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THEN PERHAPS A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEGUN
AT THE TERMINAL AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. GENERALLY
EXPECT SPEEDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS TO
BE AROUND 12Z WITH VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OCCURRING THEREAFTER.
SPEEDS 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY. EXPECT LOWERING CIGS TONIGHT COINCIDING WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CIGS MAY FALL TO 5K FT MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
PASSING SHOWERS THAT OCCUR. CIGS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. REGARDING PRECIP...LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES EXIST AROUND
3Z AND AGAIN COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 12Z. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY...BRIEF...AND ALL LIQUID AT THE AIRPORT.
PIREPS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE
DOWNSTREAM OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEGUN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS 15-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WITH A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
VERY STRONG TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS 25-35 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 45
KTS...ESPECIALLY FOR WIND-PRONE KDAG AND KIFP. BLDU IS POSSIBLE AT
KDAG OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH REDUCED VSBY POSSIBLE. EXPECT
SHOWERS AT KDAG EARLY THIS EVENING...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KBIH
OVERNIGHT...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER TO 5-10K FT
COINCIDING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND/OR SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVE
RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE HAS BEEN
REPORTED THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF BLDU ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
DOWNSTREAM OF DRY LAKE BEDS AND IN OPEN TERRAIN.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

 315 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY BEFORE DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MODERATING TREND DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS
BEGUN TO SPREAD ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL HIRES MODELS SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH SOUTHERN NEVADA
EARLY EVENING AND THEN INTO MOHAVE COUNTY BY LATE EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS BAND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6000 FEET...BUT AS IT REACHES MOHAVE COUNTY
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN THAT SNOW LEVELS
COULD DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY LATE EVENING. WITH THE EARLIER
TIMING IN PRECIPITATION DID GO AHEAD AND CHANGE THE START TIME OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOHAVE COUNTY FROM 3AM TO 10PM THIS
EVENING. STILL THINK THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE MOST OF THE
CRITICAL TRAVEL AREAS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
EARLIER ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING WINDS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. SO FAR WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND CLARK COUNTIES HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE...BUT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
INCREASING AND DO EXPECTED WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST IS MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA BETWEEN 10-12Z
MONDAY MORNING WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALSO DRAMATICALLY DROP SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
THE MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXCEPT FOR MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE DOWN TO 3000 FEET BY MID MORNING. THE BEST AREAS OF
SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE GRAND CANYON PARASHANT
NATIONAL MONUMENT WHERE AMOUNTS COULD REACH 6 INCHES. 2-3 INCHES
OVER COLORADO CITY AND PIPE SPRINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE IS A
CONCERN FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE VIRGIN RIVER GORGE
ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION FALLS AT A HEAVY ENOUGH RATE. AREAS TO
THE WEST SUCH AS CLARK...SOUTHERN NYE...AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DOWN TO 2000-
2500 FEET OR SO ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE
ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT MORE DYNAMIC. THERE COULD BE SOME CONCERNS FOR
AREAS SUCH AS MOUNTAIN PASS ON I-15 AND MOUNTAIN SPRINGS SUMMIT
BETWEEN LAS VEGAS AND PAHRUMP...BUT IF THERE ARE ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME THEY LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL RATHER
WINTERLIKE ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS OVER MOST AREAS...BUT SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES COULD
SEE WARNING LEVEL WINDS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE 20-30 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTHERLY BREEZES. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ENHANCE THOSE NORTHERLY BREEZES JUST A BIT
FOR FRIDAY, BUT NOTHING TOO STRONG. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES AT SOME
POINT, YET TIMING AND LOCATION ARE WAY OFF. EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS
LIKE A DRY WEEKEND FOR NOW. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT WILL
INCREASE AND BE 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
PUSHING 70 IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THEN PERHAPS A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEGUN
AT THE TERMINAL AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. GENERALLY
EXPECT SPEEDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS TO
BE AROUND 12Z WITH VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OCCURRING THEREAFTER.
SPEEDS 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY. EXPECT LOWERING CIGS TONIGHT COINCIDING WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CIGS MAY FALL TO 5K FT MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
PASSING SHOWERS THAT OCCUR. CIGS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. REGARDING PRECIP...LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES EXIST AROUND
3Z AND AGAIN COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 12Z. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY...BRIEF...AND ALL LIQUID AT THE AIRPORT.
PIREPS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE
DOWNSTREAM OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEGUN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS 15-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WITH A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
VERY STRONG TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS 25-35 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 45
KTS...ESPECIALLY FOR WIND-PRONE KDAG AND KIFP. BLDU IS POSSIBLE AT
KDAG OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH REDUCED VSBY POSSIBLE. EXPECT
SHOWERS AT KDAG EARLY THIS EVENING...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KBIH
OVERNIGHT...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER TO 5-10K FT
COINCIDING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND/OR SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVE
RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE HAS BEEN
REPORTED THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF BLDU ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
DOWNSTREAM OF DRY LAKE BEDS AND IN OPEN TERRAIN.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 950 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MOST GRIDS THIS EVENING. CONSSHORT DID
BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GIVEN
THE EXPECTED STRATUS TO ADVECT INTO THAT REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALSO MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO SKY COVER. LATEST ITERATIONS OF
MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRATUS SPREADING NORTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BEGINNING IN THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND 07-09 UTC...AND SPREADING INTO
MINOT AND NEAR BISMARCK CLOSER TO 12 UTC. WESTER FRINGE OF THE LOW
STRATUS STRADDLES THE BISMARCK AREA AND REMAINS JUST WEST OF
WILLISTON. GREATEST THREAT OF LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG FROM
MESOSCALE MODELS EXTENDS ALONG THE MISSOURI FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO
LAKE SAKAKAWEA...AND BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE
LAKE...FROM AROUND GARRISON TO MINOT...BOWBELLS AND CROSBY. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER
NW-WCNTRAL ND MONDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO STRADDLES BISMARCK AND
REMAINS JUST WEST OF WILLISTON. WILL BE A TRICKY TAF NIGHT AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT FOR KDIK WHICH REMAINS IN VFR...BUT MORE SO AT KBIS
AND KISN DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND PROXIMITY OF THE FOG AND
STRATUS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

QUIET THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 5
TO 15 MPH. ONLY CHANGES FOR THE EVENING OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE TO LOWER SKY COVER. STILL EXPECT
INCREASING LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

FOG TONIGHT AND A COOLER MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY FIELDS FROM THE 12 AND 18 UTC 4KM NAM
NEST AND THE 18-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12 UTC GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON PROPAGATING NORTH AND BEGINNING TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 07-09 UTC TONIGHT. MAINTAINED THE FOG
MENTION IN THE GRIDS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS NEEDED GIVEN THE SIGNAL IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION
VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MONDAY...AFTER A VERY MILD SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES FOR MOST FIELDS MONDAY WITH
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 40S WEST...AND 50S CENTRAL.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOG AND STRATUS IMPACTS MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT FROM THE CONSENSUS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LONG TERM INCLUDE OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...A COOLING TREND...AND WINDY CONDITIONS MID-WEEK.

BY MONDAY EVENING THERE IS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FRONT RANGE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER COLORADO. THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST AS THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...BLENDING
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA. THESE SCENARIOS TRANSLATE TO
A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE
AREA...ARRIVING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
PUSHING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN THE EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE
STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AS A SHORT WAVE LIFTS THROUGH SPLIT FLOW AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN - ESPECIALLY THE JAMES
VALLEY - AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

FOR TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...THOUGH STILL REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...WITH A WINTRY
MIX POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLDER AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO THE VALLEY.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT DIVES THROUGH THE AREA.
STRONG WINDS ARE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE MIXING 50KT WINDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-DAY.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS EVOLVES. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MANY PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH MAINLY
RAIN DURING THE DAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IT THE WAKE OF THE STRONG WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT...WITH A FEW
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR TO FOLLOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES...WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN STRATUS AT KJMS TONIGHT BY
07-09 UTC TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. LATEST
RAP/HRRR/NAM ARE IN VARYING DEGREES KEEPING WIDESPREAD STRATUS
LAYER CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
DEVELOP FOG AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AN
INTO MINOT BETWEEN O9 AND 12 UTC. KDIK LOOKS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH 21 UTC MONDAY...THEN LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN HERE FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 633 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

QUIET THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 5
TO 15 MPH. ONLY CHANGES FOR THE EVENING OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE TO LOWER SKY COVER. STILL EXPECT
INCREASING LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

FOG TONIGHT AND A COOLER MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY FIELDS FROM THE 12 AND 18 UTC 4KM NAM
NEST AND THE 18-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12 UTC GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON PROPAGATING NORTH AND BEGINNING TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 07-09 UTC TONIGHT. MAINTAINED THE FOG
MENTION IN THE GRIDS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS NEEDED GIVEN THE SIGNAL IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION
VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MONDAY...AFTER A VERY MILD SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES FOR MOST FIELDS MONDAY WITH
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 40S WEST...AND 50S CENTRAL.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOG AND STRATUS IMPACTS MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT FROM THE CONSENSUS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LONG TERM INCLUDE OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...A COOLING TREND...AND WINDY CONDITIONS MID-WEEK.

BY MONDAY EVENING THERE IS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FRONT RANGE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER COLORADO. THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST AS THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...BLENDING
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA. THESE SCENARIOS TRANSLATE TO
A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE
AREA...ARRIVING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
PUSHING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN THE EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE
STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AS A SHORT WAVE LIFTS THROUGH SPLIT FLOW AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN - ESPECIALLY THE JAMES
VALLEY - AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

FOR TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...THOUGH STILL REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...WITH A WINTRY
MIX POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLDER AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO THE VALLEY.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT DIVES THROUGH THE AREA.
STRONG WINDS ARE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE MIXING 50KT WINDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-DAY.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS EVOLVES. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MANY PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH MAINLY
RAIN DURING THE DAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IT THE WAKE OF THE STRONG WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT...WITH A FEW
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR TO FOLLOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES...WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN STRATUS AT KJMS TONIGHT BY
07-09 UTC TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. LATEST
RAP/HRRR/NAM ARE IN VARYING DEGREES KEEPING THE STRATUS LAYER
CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DEVELOP
FOG ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AN INTO MINOT BETWEEN O8 AND
10 UTC. KDIK LOOKS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 18 UTC MONDAY...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 1216 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

MOST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
MPH. DESPITE SEEING NW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN FA...TEMPS ARE
ALREADY APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS IN MANY AREAS...EVEN EAST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO AHEAD AND BOOST HIGHS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. WARMEST TEMPS AT NOON ARE KJMS AT 57F
AND SISSETON SD AT 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING THIS EARLY MORNING WITH ABOUT
40 KTS AT 925 MB. A WARM LAYER AT 925 MB IS OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN ERN ND AND THIS IS SHOWING UP WITH
TEMPS WITH LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WALHALLA
TO WESTERN GRAND FORKS COUNTY. 925 MB WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 12Z AND
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WINDS AT THE SFC AND AT 925MB ARE PRETTY
LIGHT. FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION WITH A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. BUT
LACK OF A GOOD WIND COMBINED WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS LENDS ONE TO BE
A BIT CONCERNED ON HOW WARM TEMPS WILL BE. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
DOES WELL IN MOST OF THESE CIRCUMSTANCES IN THE PAST AND IT SHOWS
AN AREA OF 60-63 IN THE JAMESTOWN/VALLEY CITY AREA TO NEAR
FARGO...AND A BIT COOLER AREA FROM LANGDON ND INTO NW MN. LEANED
TOWARD A CONSHORT AND HRRR TEMP FCST FOR TODAY. SOME SOME THINNING
OF HIGH CLOUDS IN SW ND AND BEST SUN TODAY WILL BE SE ND.

HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH.
LACK OF A WIND TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO DAYS AS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE DECREASES OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TODAY AS MIXING IS QUITE LIMITED AND SFC WIND DIRECTION IS
SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

LOOK FOR A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT AS 500 MB VORT
MAX MOVES NORTHEAST AND THE NORTH INTO MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. PER
PREV FCST SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO ERN ND
AND NW MN MONDAY...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS. DID GO ALONG WITH WFO DLH
AND INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR LIGHT RAIN IN FAR ERN FCST AREA AS SOME
MODELS INDICATE LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN BEFORE
12Z MON. SOUTH BREEZE AND MILD ON MONDAY DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SPLIT LONG WAVE PATTERN HAD THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/DESERT
SOUTHWEST. NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFIES WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF AK SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. SPLIT PATTERN
PHASES UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING THE SAME OR
SLOWER. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS. SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED. WINDS WERE INCREASED
FOR WED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR TUE. TEMPS WERE
DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR WED AND DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS LIMITED TO
CIRRUS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 932 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE FA RIGHT NOW...BUT UPSTREAM IT
LOOKS MUCH THINNER. THEREFORE SHOULD BE MORE SUN BY AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 50 NORTH AND AROUND 60 SOUTH STILL LOOK
FINE. NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING THIS EARLY MORNING WITH ABOUT
40 KTS AT 925 MB. A WARM LAYER AT 925 MB IS OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN ERN ND AND THIS IS SHOWING UP WITH
TEMPS WITH LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WALHALLA
TO WESTERN GRAND FORKS COUNTY. 925 MB WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 12Z AND
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WINDS AT THE SFC AND AT 925MB ARE PRETTY
LIGHT. FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION WITH A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. BUT
LACK OF A GOOD WIND COMBINED WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS LENDS ONE TO BE
A BIT CONCERNED ON HOW WARM TEMPS WILL BE. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
DOES WELL IN MOST OF THESE CIRCUMSTANCES IN THE PAST AND IT SHOWS
AN AREA OF 60-63 IN THE JAMESTOWN/VALLEY CITY AREA TO NEAR
FARGO...AND A BIT COOLER AREA FROM LANGDON ND INTO NW MN. LEANED
TOWARD A CONSHORT AND HRRR TEMP FCST FOR TODAY. SOME SOME THINNING
OF HIGH CLOUDS IN SW ND AND BEST SUN TODAY WILL BE SE ND.

HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH.
LACK OF A WIND TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO DAYS AS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE DECREASES OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TODAY AS MIXING IS QUITE LIMITED AND SFC WIND DIRECTION IS
SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

LOOK FOR A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT AS 500 MB VORT
MAX MOVES NORTHEAST AND THE NORTH INTO MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. PER
PREV FCST SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO ERN ND
AND NW MN MONDAY...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS. DID GO ALONG WITH WFO DLH
AND INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR LIGHT RAIN IN FAR ERN FCST AREA AS SOME
MODELS INDICATE LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN BEFORE
12Z MON. SOUTH BREEZE AND MILD ON MONDAY DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SPLIT LONG WAVE PATTERN HAD THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/DESERT
SOUTHWEST. NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFIES WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF AK SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. SPLIT PATTERN
PHASES UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING THE SAME OR
SLOWER. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS. SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED. WINDS WERE INCREASED
FOR WED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR TUE. TEMPS WERE
DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR WED AND DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD. EXPECT A VEIL OF BKN CIRRUS TODAY
BECOME MORE SCATTERED TONIGHT. WINDS SOUTHWEST TODAY 10 TO 15 KTS
THEN SOUTH NR 5 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 706 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

GETTING A WARM SURGE AT 925 MB AT 12Z AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
STILL. 925 MB TEMPS COOL A TAD IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FCST AREA
THIS AFTN BUT REMAIN WARM IN SE ND WHERE MAX TEMPS NR 60 ARE
POSSIBLE. USED CONSHORT FOR TEMP UPDATE TODAY WHICH KEEPS FAR
NORTH NR 50 AND SOUTH NR 60. WINDS TODAY NOT STRONG BUT WIND
DIRECTION FAVORABLE. HIGH CLOUDS COULD DAMPER SUN QUITE A BIT ESP
IN THE NORTH. THOSE THINGS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THRU THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION OCCURING THIS EARLY MORNING WITH ABOUT
40 KTS AT 925 MB. A WARM LAYER AT 925 MB IS OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN ERN ND AND THIS IS SHOWING UP WITH
TEMPS WITH LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WALHALLA
TO WESTERN GRAND FORKS COUNTY. 925 MB WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 12Z AND
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WINDS AT THE SFC AND AT 925MB ARE PRETTY
LIGHT. FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION WITH A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. BUT
LACK OF A GOOD WIND COMBINED WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS LENDS ONE TO BE
A BIT CONCERNED ON HOW WARM TEMPS WILL BE. THE EXPIREMENTAL HRRR
DOES WELL IN MOST OF THESE CIRCUMSTANCES IN THE PAST AND IT SHOWS
AN AREA OF 60-63 IN THE JAMESTOWN/VALLEY CITY AREA TO NEAR
FARGO...AND A BIT COOLER AREA FROM LANGDON ND INTO NW MN. LEANED
TOWARD A CONSHORT AND HRRR TEMP FCST FOR TODAY. SOME SOME THINNING
OF HIGH CLOUDS IN SW ND AND BEST SUN TODAY WILL BE SE ND.

HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH.
LACK OF A WIND TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO DAYS AS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE DECREASES OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TODAY AS MIXING IS QUITE LIMITED AND SFC WIND DIRECTION IS
SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

LOOK FOR A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT AS 500 MB VORT
MAX MOVES NORTHEAST AND THE NORTH INTO MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. PER
PREV FCST SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO ERN ND
AND NW MN MONDAY...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS. DID GO ALONG WITH WFO DLH
AND INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR LIGHT RAIN IN FAR ERN FCST AREA AS SOME
MODELS INDICATE LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN BEFORE
12Z MON. SOUTH BREEZE AND MILD ON MONDAY DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SPLIT LONG WAVE PATTERN HAD THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/DESERT
SOUTHWEST. NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFIES WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF AK SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. SPLIT PATTERN
PHASES UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING THE SAME OR
SLOWER. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS. SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED. WINDS WERE INCREASED
FOR WED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR TUE. TEMPS WERE
DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR WED AND DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD. EXPECT A VEIL OF BKN CIRRUS TODAY
BECOME MORE SCATTERED TONIGHT. WINDS SOUTHWEST TODAY 10 TO 15 KTS
THEN SOUTH NR 5 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 352 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION OCCURING THIS EARLY MORNING WITH ABOUT
40 KTS AT 925 MB. A WARM LAYER AT 925 MB IS OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN ERN ND AND THIS IS SHOWING UP WITH
TEMPS WITH LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WALHALLA
TO WESTERN GRAND FORKS COUNTY. 925 MB WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 12Z AND
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WINDS AT THE SFC AND AT 925MB ARE PRETTY
LIGHT. FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION WITH A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. BUT
LACK OF A GOOD WIND COMBINED WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS LENDS ONE TO BE
A BIT CONCERNED ON HOW WARM TEMPS WILL BE. THE EXPIREMENTAL HRRR
DOES WELL IN MOST OF THESE CIRCUMSTANCES IN THE PAST AND IT SHOWS
AN AREA OF 60-63 IN THE JAMESTOWN/VALLEY CITY AREA TO NEAR
FARGO...AND A BIT COOLER AREA FROM LANGDON ND INTO NW MN. LEANED
TOWARD A CONSHORT AND HRRR TEMP FCST FOR TODAY. SOME SOME THINNING
OF HIGH CLOUDS IN SW ND AND BEST SUN TODAY WILL BE SE ND.

HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH.
LACK OF A WIND TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO DAYS AS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE DECREASES OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TODAY AS MIXING IS QUITE LIMITED AND SFC WIND DIRECTION IS
SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

LOOK FOR A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT AS 500 MB VORT
MAX MOVES NORTHEAST AND THE NORTH INTO MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. PER
PREV FCST SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO ERN ND
AND NW MN MONDAY...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS. DID GO ALONG WITH WFO DLH
AND INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR LIGHT RAIN IN FAR ERN FCST AREA AS SOME
MODELS INDICATE LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN BEFORE
12Z MON. SOUTH BREEZE AND MILD ON MONDAY DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SPLIT LONG WAVE PATTERN HAD THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/DESERT
SOUTHWEST. NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFIES WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF AK SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. SPLIT PATTERN
PHASES UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING THE SAME OR
SLOWER. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS. SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED. WINDS WERE INCREASED
FOR WED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR TUE. TEMPS WERE
DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR WED AND DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS BLO 12K FT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

 217 PM PST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT AND BECOME
RE-ORIENTED NORTH-TO-SOUTH THIS EVENING AND FINALLY MOVE ASHORE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A
SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND WITH THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER AND MINOR FLOODING. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE CASCADE PASSES...THE HIGHER CASCADE
FOOTHILLS...AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COAST RANGE. A
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN COMPRISED OF A NEARLY-STALLED
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN WA THROUGH EXTREME NW OREGON
THEN TO A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 40N 135W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CENTERED ALONG 135W AS OF 21Z. CLASSIC BAROCLINC LEAF SIGNATURE
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NOTED JUST OUTSIDE 130W WITH INFLECTION
POINT CLOSE TO 43N 132W. RAINFALL RATES ACROSS SW WA AND EXTREME NW
OREGON HAVE EASED AND ARE GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH PER HOUR. SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED INSTEAD OF
WEST-TO-EAST. 12Z MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. IT APPEARS THE BAROCLINIC BAND MOISTURE CONTENT HAS
DIMINSHED A BIT SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE 1849Z BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER GRAPHIC INDICATES VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES ALONG THE
S WA AND FAR N OREGON COAST...COMPARED TO 1.3 INCHES OR SO EARLIER
THIS MORNING. SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR KSLE SHOWED A MAXIMUM TPW
FOR THIS DATE OF 1.19 INCHES.

THE BAROCLINIC BAND AND ASSOCIATED HEAVIER RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A STEEP AND
NARROW RAINFALL GRADIENT FROM SW WASHINGTON TO JUST ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. EARLIER THIS MORNING THERE WERE A FEW REPORTS OF
LOCALIZED MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG HIGHWAY 101 IN TILLAMOOK
COUNTY. THE HRRR HAS DONE REASONABLY WELL WITH THE FRONTAL EVOLUTION.
LATEST RUN SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP RETURNING TO
THE S WA COAST AROUND 01Z SUN...THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING TO THE
OREGON COASTLINE BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. LATER TIMING WILL BE ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST AS THE FRONTAL BAND BECOMES MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH.
THE HRRR SHIFTS THE COLD FRONT TO THE CASCADES BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z
SUN. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT A 2 TO 4 HR PERIOD OF INCREASED PRECIP
INTENSITY. LATEST RIVER FORECASTS KEEP THE WILSON RIVER NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE BANKFULL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER NORTH OREGON COASTAL
RIVERS EXPECTED TO SEE A MINOR SECONDARY RISE LATE TONIGHT...THEN GO
ON A STEADY DECLINE LATE TONIGHT AND SUN.

COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS FROM AROUND 7000
FEET THIS MORNING DOWN TO PASS LEVELS BY 12Z SUN...AND THEN TO 2500
FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KAST PROFILER INDICATED SNOW
LEVELS ABOUT 6800 FT AT 20Z. LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS FALL TO THE
CASCADE PASSES SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SUN. THUS...WILL GO WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES 14Z SUN THROUGH 08Z MON. THE HIGHER
CASCADE FOOTHILLS...ABOVE ABOUT 2000 FT...STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF
GETTING A LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT
MILD AIR MASS AND RESULTANT GROUND TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS. THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT
FREQUENT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ANY SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
CASCADE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA MON MORNING.
WARM-ADVECTIVE OVER-RUNNING PATTERN SETS UP LATE SUN NIGHT THROIUGH
MON MORNING. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A LULL IN PRECIP LATE SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. TYPICALLY...MODELS TEND TO RAISE SNOW
LEVELS TOO FAST IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. HAVE KEPT THEM LOWER
THAN MODEL OUTPUT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT 18Z MON THROUGH 06Z TUE
WILL PRODUCE INCREASING QPF FOR THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND SW WA
WILLAPA HILLS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN LIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE A LITTLE
MORE NORTH TUE MORNING. HOWEVER...THINK SNOW LEVELS FOR THE S WA AND
FAR N OREGON CASCADES WILL REMAIN BELOW 4000 FEET TUE MORNING FOR THE
POSSIBLITY OF SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE THURSDAY ONWARD DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BE DRY SO
DECREASED POPS...BUT STILL KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
BEYOND FRIDAY MODELS DIVERGE EVEN FURTHER ON THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL BAND STRETCHING OVER FAR NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY BECOME ALIGNED IN A N-S ORIENTATION THIS
EVENING AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE COAST
AND MVFR INLAND TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME STRONG SOUTH WINDS NEAR 30-35
KTS ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND AROUND 20-25 KTS INLAND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z-10Z.
AFTER 08Z...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS HAS BEEN PROVIDING A SHARP DELINEATION
OF WINDS WITH SOUTHERLY GALES SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. AS THE
FRONT TAKES ON A N-S ORIENTATION TONIGHT...THE NOSE OF SOUTHERLY
GALES WILL REACH ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS THE COLUMBIA RIVER. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KTS. EXPECT WINDS TO DROP BELOW GALES AFTER
10PM THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND AFTER 9AM SUNDAY IN
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

SEAS RUNNING 15 TO 17 FEET TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY. TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
     WILLAPA HILLS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 8 PM
     PST SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 124 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE STATE BY THE MORNING AND
BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOL
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
STARTING TO SEE THE SIGNS OF DIMINISHING SHSN OVER THE NW. HRRR
AND RECENT RUNS OF OTHER MESO MDLS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT KILLING
THE REAL ACCUMULATIONS BY 09Z. BUT THE WIDEST BAND OF ALL SO FAR
HAS JUST BEGUN TO SLIP INTO NRN PA THANKS TO A SLIGHT NRLY SHIFT
TO THE WIND. IT NOW LOOKS MORE CELLULAR THAN LINEAR OVER WRN NY.
OVERALL...THE ADVY LOOKS WELL PLACED/TIMED. MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.

PREV...
HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. IT WILL STAY GUSTY BUT
A SLOW DECLINE IN WIND SPEED IS INDICATED.

LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WORKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING ABOUT A PERIOD OF FAVORABLE
WIND ALIGNMENT OVER THE LAKES WHICH THE HRRR SHOWS SUPPORTING A
MULTIBAND SCENARIO FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE WHEN
UPSTREAM FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE DIRECTIONALLY SHEARED.

WE PLAN ON UPPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT INTO THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE...WITH AN ADVISORY IN THE WORKS FOR WARREN AND MCKEAN. WARM
GROUND SHOULD PRECLUDE HIGHER AMOUNTS.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUING ACROSS REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN AND NOT OUT OF CANADA...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL RUN ABOUT
3-8F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MAXES ON SAT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER NWRN AREAS...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES BLEEDING INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER AND GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY MIDWEEK...AN AREA OF CLOSED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THIS UPPER-LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE
WEEK...IT WILL PUSH A SFC LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA.

OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF LIFTING THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE
PLAINS MORE QUICKLY AND BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
EARLY THURS. THE 12Z GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HOLDS
THE FRONT OFF UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. THE 12Z GEFS BRINGS THE BAND OF
HIGHEST PWATS THROUGH THURS EVENING...WHICH COULD MEAN THAT SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING A QUICKER MOVING SYSTEM.

EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE OUR WEATHER TURN MORE
UNSETTLED THRU THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
14/06Z...SFC WINDS FROM 270-310 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
BETWEEN 20-25KTS TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TONIGHT. IFR
CONDS IN SHSN AT BFD SHOULD TREND TOWARD MVFR AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES
BEHIND SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THE OTHER POTENTIAL TROUBLE SPOT WILL
BE JST WITH MVFR CIGS AND OCNL IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. LOW VFR
CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL EAST OF THE MTNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TERMINALS MDT/LNS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE TERRAIN EFFECTS. CANT
RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT AOO/UNV. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
N/W AIRSPACE WILL END BY THE AFTERNOON BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LKLY
PERSIST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. VFR FLYING WILL CONTINUE EAST OF
THE MTNS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SHOWERS/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-
005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 108 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE STATE BY THE MORNING AND
BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOL
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
STARTING TO SEE THE SIGNS OF DIMINISHING SHSN OVER THE NW. HRRR
AND RECENT RUNS OF OTHER MESO MDLS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT KILLING
THE REAL ACCUMULATIONS BY 09Z. BUT THE WIDEST BAND OF ALL SO FAR
HAS JUST BEGUN TO SLIP INTO NRN PA THANKS TO A SLIGHT NRLY SHIFT
TO THE WIND. IT NOW LOOKS MORE CELLULAR THAN LINEAR OVER WRN NY.
OVERALL...THE ADVY LOOKS WELL PLACED/TIMED. MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.

PREV...
HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. IT WILL STAY GUSTY BUT
A SLOW DECLINE IN WIND SPEED IS INDICATED.

LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WORKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING ABOUT A PERIOD OF FAVORABLE
WIND ALIGNMENT OVER THE LAKES WHICH THE HRRR SHOWS SUPPORTING A
MULTIBAND SCENARIO FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE WHEN
UPSTREAM FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE DIRECTIONALLY SHEARED.

WE PLAN ON UPPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT INTO THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE...WITH AN ADVISORY IN THE WORKS FOR WARREN AND MCKEAN. WARM
GROUND SHOULD PRECLUDE HIGHER AMOUNTS.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUING ACROSS REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN AND NOT OUT OF CANADA...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL RUN ABOUT
3-8F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MAXES ON SAT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER NWRN AREAS...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES BLEEDING INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER AND GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY MIDWEEK...AN AREA OF CLOSED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THIS UPPER-LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE
WEEK...IT WILL PUSH A SFC LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA.

OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF LIFTING THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE
PLAINS MORE QUICKLY AND BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
EARLY THURS. THE 12Z GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HOLDS
THE FRONT OFF UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. THE 12Z GEFS BRINGS THE BAND OF
HIGHEST PWATS THROUGH THURS EVENING...WHICH COULD MEAN THAT SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING A QUICKER MOVING SYSTEM.

EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE OUR WEATHER TURN MORE
UNSETTLED THRU THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT...AS STRONG STORM
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW ENG PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. BUFKIT AND
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 20-25KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALLEGHENY MTNS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST OBS AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUPPORT
PREDOMINANTLY IFR VSBYS AT KBFD UNTIL PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ARND 07Z. FURTHER SOUTH...CAN/T RULE OUT
OCNL IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN 06Z-12Z...AS PLUME OF PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE ASCENDS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING
FLOW WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT OCNL MVFR
CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY AT KUNV AND KAOO FOR A TIME
LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS THE SE AIRFIELDS...INCLUDING
KMDT/KLNS...THERE IS A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU
THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CAUSE ANY LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY AND WINDS TO DIMINISH LATE IN
THE DAY. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE W
MTNS AND PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SHOWERS/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY PUT US BELOW NORMAL FOR A 7-DAY
STRETCH FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID-OCTOBER.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-
005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

 1202 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...FIRST...HAVE NO MENTION OF PCPN IN THE TERMINALS
(MAINLY FOR KALI AND KLRD ANYWAY)...AS THINK ANY LIGHT RAIN (AND
IT SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE) WILL BE TOO WEAK
TO MAKE ANY IMPACT AT THIS TIME (MORE LIKE SPRINKLES)...AND
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW. IF IT WOULD HAPPEN IT WOULD BE OVERNIGHT
AND MAINLY AFTER 15/09Z SO PREFER TO LEAVE IT OUT BECAUSE OF THAT.
OTHERWISE...AM EXPECTING VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THEN
CIGS BECOME MVFR ALL BUT KVCT BY 15/10Z (KLRD FIRST)...THEN KVCT
ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY. BELIEVE WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ENOUGH EAST
FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL SEE SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS AT KLRD BETWEEN 10Z
AND 16Z (OR SOMEWHERE AROUND THOSE TIMES). WINDS MAINLY EAST TODAY
THEN A BIT NORTHEAST TONIGHT (NOT AS BREEZY IN FACT GENERALLY
LIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST...KCRP)...THEN EAST KALI AND KVCT (SE AT
KCRP) WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING BACK INLAND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE IS FOR THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NUECES AND KLEBERG COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TIDES AT BOB HALL PIER RUNNING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 1 FOOT MSL WITH
A HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON PREDICTED AT 1.2 FEET MSL...MAKING
LIKELY TIDE LEVEL AROUND 1.2 FEET MSL (HENCE THE ADVISORY). A FEW
MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES (DEW POINTS) AND WINDS. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES LOOK OK FOR NOW SO DID NOT CHANGE. FINALLY...REMOVED
THE 20 POPS AND ONLY MENTIONED SPRINKLES. HRRR RUNS AND 00Z 4 KM
NSSL AND 06Z TTU MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING THIS
AFTERNOON. PRODUCTS ARE OUT...WILL MAKE OTHER CHANGES THIS
AFTERNOON AS-NEEDED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MARINE PACKAGE LOOKED FINE FROM HERE SO CWFCRP SENT WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES (EXCEPT FOR THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES AND NOT
RAIN).

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE 12Z TAFS. CEILINGS
RANGE FROM VFR AT ALI/CRP/VCT TO MVFR AT LRD. ANTICIPATE CIGS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE A
LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY.
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK PRECIP OUT OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. WILL KEEP POPS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE THOUGH AND IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE TODAY. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...
HIGHS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE...
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PREFERRED
LOCATIONS WILL BE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS A
LITTLE BETTER. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LONG PERIOD
SWELLS AND A MODERATE TO NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW PERSISTS. EVEN
WITH THE NE/E FLOW IN PLACE...TIDAL LEVELS SHOULD STAY BELOW 2
FEET MSL WHICH WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVG ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL INCREASE SLY WINDS ACROSS S TX
AND USHER DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA AS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE
AND THE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RATHER LIMITED. SHRA/TSRA CHCS
INCREASE ON MON IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED UPPER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE AREA AHD OF THE MAIN LOW. MODELS ALSO PROG UPPER JET
DYNAMICS TO INCREASE ON MON...ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE E CWA AND OVER THE WATERS AND PWATS INCREASING TO 1.8-1.9
INCHES. THE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION ON MON WILL BE ACROSS THE NE CWA
WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST. MODELS PROG THE CAP TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON/MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BECOME MORE SW AND STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 35KTS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGD TO MOVE
INTO S TX TUE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO
RUN/MODEL TO MODEL...BUT ALL SHOW SOMETIME TUE. WENT WITH THE
SUPERBLEND`S TIMING WHICH PUTS THE BDRY ENTERING THE NW CWA AROUND
12Z TUE AND REACHING THE COAST AROUND 18Z THEN BEYOND THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY 00Z. THIS TIMING PROVIDES A BRIEF WINDOW FOR POSSIBLY
STRONG TO ISOL SVR AHD OF THE BDRY...MAINLY FOR THE NE CWA WITH BEST
CHCS FARTHER N-NE OF THE CWA. CHCS DECREASE FARTHER S AND W DUE TO
STRONGER CAPPING/LESS MOISTURE. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
NE CWA IN A 15 PERCENT PROB FOR SVR FOR TUE.

THE ECMWF AND GFS QUICKLY BRING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO S TX THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...HOWEVER THE SUPERBLEND KEEPS LOW POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME E AND OVER THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/WED. AM LEANING TOWARD THE
DRIER SOLNS FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...BUT LEFT THE LOW POPS FOR NOW FOR
POSSIBILITY OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER THAN EXPECTED.

ABV NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MON THEN COOLER BY TUE WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM BY WED. A WARMING TREND
THEN COMMENCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A GENERALLY EAST FLOW
DVLPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MON AHD OF THE FRONT AND
AGAIN TUE/TUE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  67  78  71  84  /  10  20  20  20  20
VICTORIA          69  56  74  68  80  /  10  20  20  20  50
LAREDO            70  62  78  69  87  /  10  30  30  20  10
ALICE             75  61  78  69  86  /  10  20  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          72  64  76  72  80  /  10  20  20  20  30
COTULLA           67  57  74  68  83  /  10  30  30  20  20
KINGSVILLE        76  65  79  71  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  69  77  74  82  /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 1144 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.AVIATION...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
AS THIS RAIN FALLS THROUGH THE LAYER. WILL SEE DEWPOINTS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING CEILINGS TO COME
DOWN. CIG HEIGHTS ARE IN THE 5-7KFT RANGE NOW...BUT EXPECT THEM TO
FALL OVERNIGHT INTO MVFR BEFORE DAWN AND REMAIN THAT WAY ALL DAY
SUNDAY. RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT SO HANDLING
WITH VICINITY SH BUT ALSO PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON AT
DRT/SAT/SSF FOR SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH -SHRA. VISBY AND
DECKS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED HOWEVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES. CONTINUE
TO SEE RADAR RETURNS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY AND NOT MUCH OF THIS
IS REACHING THE GROUND. SHOULD SEE SLOW MOISTENING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING THE
SURFACE. WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR DRT FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND AT KAUS
AFTER 20Z. MOST HIGH-RES MODELS KEEPS THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE
SAN ANTONIO SITES. AS THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WE SHOULD
SEE MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP 300MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW
A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE TWO SHORT-WAVES
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ELEVATED SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY WITH
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING THIS CONCLUSION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. AN INCREASED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR THE MOST PART.

WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE I-35
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING BOTH AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METRO AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH THE
THERMOMETER REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL PULSES OF ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION AND INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER SYSTEM.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
PUSH FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT OUR WAY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN A FORM
OF SQUALL LINE. THE LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY
AND THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 4 AM AND 6 AM. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY MID
MORNING ON TUESDAY. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. CANT RULE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS WITH STORM RAINFALL
TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS.

A DRY AIRMASS AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY WITH FEW SPOTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. A DRY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND BRINGS ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOL AIR FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  53  69  63  76 /  40  40  30  40  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  52  70  63  77 /  40  40  30  40  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  54  72  65  79 /  30  40  30  40  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  52  66  62  74 /  50  50  30  50  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  56  66  63  77 /  30  30  40  50  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  51  67  62  75 /  50  50  30  50  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  55  70  65  78 /  20  40  30  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  53  70  64  77 /  40  40  30  40  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  54  72  65  78 /  20  30  20  30  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  55  71  66  78 /  30  40  30  40  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  56  73  66  80 /  20  40  30  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

 938 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE IS FOR THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NUECES AND KLEBERG COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TIDES AT BOB HALL PIER RUNNING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 1 FOOT MSL WITH
A HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON PREDICTED AT 1.2 FEET MSL...MAKING
LIKELY TIDE LEVEL AROUND 1.2 FEET MSL (HENCE THE ADVISORY). A FEW
MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES (DEW POINTS) AND WINDS. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES LOOK OK FOR NOW SO DID NOT CHANGE. FINALLY...REMOVED
THE 20 POPS AND ONLY MENTIONED SPRINKLES. HRRR RUNS AND 00Z 4 KM
NSSL AND 06Z TTU MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING THIS
AFTERNOON. PRODUCTS ARE OUT...WILL MAKE OTHER CHANGES THIS
AFTERNOON AS-NEEDED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MARINE PACKAGE LOOKED FINE FROM HERE SO CWFCRP SENT WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES (EXCEPT FOR THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES AND NOT
RAIN).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE 12Z TAFS. CEILINGS
RANGE FROM VFR AT ALI/CRP/VCT TO MVFR AT LRD. ANTICIPATE CIGS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE A
LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY.
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK PRECIP OUT OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. WILL KEEP POPS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE THOUGH AND IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE TODAY. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...
HIGHS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE...
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PREFERRED
LOCATIONS WILL BE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS A
LITTLE BETTER. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LONG PERIOD
SWELLS AND A MODERATE TO NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW PERSISTS. EVEN
WITH THE NE/E FLOW IN PLACE...TIDAL LEVELS SHOULD STAY BELOW 2
FEET MSL WHICH WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVG ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL INCREASE SLY WINDS ACROSS S TX
AND USHER DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA AS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE
AND THE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RATHER LIMITED. SHRA/TSRA CHCS
INCREASE ON MON IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED UPPER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE AREA AHD OF THE MAIN LOW. MODELS ALSO PROG UPPER JET
DYNAMICS TO INCREASE ON MON...ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE E CWA AND OVER THE WATERS AND PWATS INCREASING TO 1.8-1.9
INCHES. THE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION ON MON WILL BE ACROSS THE NE CWA
WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST. MODELS PROG THE CAP TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON/MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BECOME MORE SW AND STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 35KTS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGD TO MOVE
INTO S TX TUE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO
RUN/MODEL TO MODEL...BUT ALL SHOW SOMETIME TUE. WENT WITH THE
SUPERBLEND`S TIMING WHICH PUTS THE BDRY ENTERING THE NW CWA AROUND
12Z TUE AND REACHING THE COAST AROUND 18Z THEN BEYOND THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY 00Z. THIS TIMING PROVIDES A BRIEF WINDOW FOR POSSIBLY
STRONG TO ISOL SVR AHD OF THE BDRY...MAINLY FOR THE NE CWA WITH BEST
CHCS FARTHER N-NE OF THE CWA. CHCS DECREASE FARTHER S AND W DUE TO
STRONGER CAPPING/LESS MOISTURE. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
NE CWA IN A 15 PERCENT PROB FOR SVR FOR TUE.

THE ECMWF AND GFS QUICKLY BRING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO S TX THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...HOWEVER THE SUPERBLEND KEEPS LOW POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME E AND OVER THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/WED. AM LEANING TOWARD THE
DRIER SOLNS FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...BUT LEFT THE LOW POPS FOR NOW FOR
POSSIBILITY OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER THAN EXPECTED.

ABV NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MON THEN COOLER BY TUE WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM BY WED. A WARMING TREND
THEN COMMENCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A GENERALLY EAST FLOW
DVLPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MON AHD OF THE FRONT AND
AGAIN TUE/TUE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  67  78  71  84  /  10  20  20  20  20
VICTORIA          69  56  74  68  80  /  10  20  20  20  50
LAREDO            70  62  78  69  87  /  10  30  30  20  10
ALICE             75  61  78  69  86  /  10  20  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          72  64  76  72  80  /  10  20  20  20  30
COTULLA           67  57  74  68  83  /  10  30  30  20  20
KINGSVILLE        76  65  79  71  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  69  77  74  82  /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

 602 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE 12Z TAFS. CEILINGS
RANGE FROM VFR AT ALI/CRP/VCT TO MVFR AT LRD. ANTICIPATE CIGS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE A
LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY.
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK PRECIP OUT OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. WILL KEEP POPS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE THOUGH AND IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE TODAY. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...
HIGHS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE...
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PREFERRED
LOCATIONS WILL BE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS A
LITTLE BETTER. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LONG PERIOD
SWELLS AND A MODERATE TO NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW PERSISTS. EVEN
WITH THE NE/E FLOW IN PLACE...TIDAL LEVELS SHOULD STAY BELOW 2
FEET MSL WHICH WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVG ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL INCREASE SLY WINDS ACROSS S TX
AND USHER DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA AS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE
AND THE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RATHER LIMITED. SHRA/TSRA CHCS
INCREASE ON MON IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED UPPER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE AREA AHD OF THE MAIN LOW. MODELS ALSO PROG UPPER JET
DYNAMICS TO INCREASE ON MON...ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE E CWA AND OVER THE WATERS AND PWATS INCREASING TO 1.8-1.9
INCHES. THE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION ON MON WILL BE ACROSS THE NE CWA
WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST. MODELS PROG THE CAP TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON/MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BECOME MORE SW AND STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 35KTS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGD TO MOVE
INTO S TX TUE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO
RUN/MODEL TO MODEL...BUT ALL SHOW SOMETIME TUE. WENT WITH THE
SUPERBLEND`S TIMING WHICH PUTS THE BDRY ENTERING THE NW CWA AROUND
12Z TUE AND REACHING THE COAST AROUND 18Z THEN BEYOND THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY 00Z. THIS TIMING PROVIDES A BRIEF WINDOW FOR POSSIBLY
STRONG TO ISOL SVR AHD OF THE BDRY...MAINLY FOR THE NE CWA WITH BEST
CHCS FARTHER N-NE OF THE CWA. CHCS DECREASE FARTHER S AND W DUE TO
STRONGER CAPPING/LESS MOISTURE. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
NE CWA IN A 15 PERCENT PROB FOR SVR FOR TUE.

THE ECMWF AND GFS QUICKLY BRING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO S TX THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...HOWEVER THE SUPERBLEND KEEPS LOW POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME E AND OVER THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/WED. AM LEANING TOWARD THE
DRIER SOLNS FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...BUT LEFT THE LOW POPS FOR NOW FOR
POSSIBILITY OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER THAN EXPECTED.

ABV NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MON THEN COOLER BY TUE WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM BY WED. A WARMING TREND
THEN COMMENCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A GENERALLY EAST FLOW
DVLPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MON AHD OF THE FRONT AND
AGAIN TUE/TUE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  67  78  71  84  /  20  20  20  20  20
VICTORIA          69  56  74  68  80  /  20  20  20  20  50
LAREDO            70  62  78  69  87  /  20  30  30  20  10
ALICE             75  61  78  69  86  /  20  20  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          72  64  76  72  80  /  20  20  20  20  30
COTULLA           67  57  74  68  83  /  20  30  30  20  20
KINGSVILLE        76  65  79  71  85  /  20  20  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  69  77  74  82  /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 517 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES. CONTINUE
TO SEE RADAR RETURNS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY AND NOT MUCH OF THIS
IS REACHING THE GROUND. SHOULD SEE SLOW MOISTENING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING THE
SURFACE. WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR DRT FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND AT KAUS
AFTER 20Z. MOST HIGH-RES MODELS KEEPS THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE
SAN ANTONIO SITES. AS THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WE SHOULD
SEE MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP 300MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW
A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE TWO SHORT-WAVES
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ELEVATED SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY WITH
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING THIS CONCLUSION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. AN INCREASED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR THE MOST PART.

WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE I-35
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING BOTH AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METRO AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH THE
THERMOMETER REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL PULSES OF ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION AND INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER SYSTEM.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
PUSH FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT OUR WAY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN A FORM
OF SQUALL LINE. THE LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY
AND THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 4 AM AND 6 AM. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY MID
MORNING ON TUESDAY. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. CANT RULE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS WITH STORM RAINFALL
TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS.

A DRY AIRMASS AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY WITH FEW SPOTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. A DRY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND BRINGS ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOL AIR FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  53  69  63  76 /  40  40  30  40  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  52  70  63  77 /  40  40  30  40  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  54  72  65  79 /  30  40  30  40  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  52  66  62  74 /  50  50  30  50  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  56  66  63  77 /  30  30  40  50  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  51  67  62  75 /  50  50  30  50  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  55  70  65  78 /  20  40  30  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  53  70  64  77 /  40  40  30  40  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  54  72  65  78 /  20  30  20  30  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  55  71  66  78 /  30  40  30  40  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  56  73  66  80 /  20  40  30  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

 412 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY.
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK PRECIP OUT OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. WILL KEEP POPS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE THOUGH AND IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE TODAY. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...
HIGHS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE...
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PREFERRED
LOCATIONS WILL BE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS A
LITTLE BETTER. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LONG PERIOD
SWELLS AND A MODERATE TO NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW PERSISTS. EVEN
WITH THE NE/E FLOW IN PLACE...TIDAL LEVELS SHOULD STAY BELOW 2
FEET MSL WHICH WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVG ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL INCREASE SLY WINDS ACROSS S TX
AND USHER DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA AS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE
AND THE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RATHER LIMITED. SHRA/TSRA CHCS
INCREASE ON MON IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED UPPER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE AREA AHD OF THE MAIN LOW. MODELS ALSO PROG UPPER JET
DYNAMICS TO INCREASE ON MON...ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE E CWA AND OVER THE WATERS AND PWATS INCREASING TO 1.8-1.9
INCHES. THE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION ON MON WILL BE ACROSS THE NE CWA
WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST. MODELS PROG THE CAP TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON/MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BECOME MORE SW AND STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 35KTS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGD TO MOVE
INTO S TX TUE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO
RUN/MODEL TO MODEL...BUT ALL SHOW SOMETIME TUE. WENT WITH THE
SUPERBLEND`S TIMING WHICH PUTS THE BDRY ENTERING THE NW CWA AROUND
12Z TUE AND REACHING THE COAST AROUND 18Z THEN BEYOND THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY 00Z. THIS TIMING PROVIDES A BRIEF WINDOW FOR POSSIBLY
STRONG TO ISOL SVR AHD OF THE BDRY...MAINLY FOR THE NE CWA WITH BEST
CHCS FARTHER N-NE OF THE CWA. CHCS DECREASE FARTHER S AND W DUE TO
STRONGER CAPPING/LESS MOISTURE. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
NE CWA IN A 15 PERCENT PROB FOR SVR FOR TUE.

THE ECMWF AND GFS QUICKLY BRING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO S TX THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...HOWEVER THE SUPERBLEND KEEPS LOW POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME E AND OVER THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/WED. AM LEANING TOWARD THE
DRIER SOLNS FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...BUT LEFT THE LOW POPS FOR NOW FOR
POSSIBILITY OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER THAN EXPECTED.

ABV NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MON THEN COOLER BY TUE WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM BY WED. A WARMING TREND
THEN COMMENCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A GENERALLY EAST FLOW
DVLPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MON AHD OF THE FRONT AND
AGAIN TUE/TUE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  67  78  71  84  /  20  20  20  20  20
VICTORIA          69  56  74  68  80  /  20  20  20  20  50
LAREDO            70  62  78  69  87  /  20  30  30  20  10
ALICE             75  61  78  69  86  /  20  20  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          72  64  76  72  80  /  20  20  20  20  30
COTULLA           67  57  74  68  83  /  20  30  30  20  20
KINGSVILLE        76  65  79  71  85  /  20  20  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  69  77  74  82  /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 356 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP 300MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW
A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE TWO SHORT-WAVES
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ELEVATED SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY WITH
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS CONCLUSION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
AN INCREASED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR THE MOST PART.

WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE I-35
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING BOTH AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METRO AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH THE
THERMOMETER REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL PULSES OF ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION AND INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER SYSTEM.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
PUSH FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT OUR WAY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN A FORM
OF SQUALL LINE. THE LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY
AND THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 4 AM AND 6 AM. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY MID
MORNING ON TUESDAY. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. CANT RULE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS WITH STORM RAINFALL
TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS.

A DRY AIRMASS AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY WITH FEW SPOTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. A DRY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND BRINGS ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOL AIR FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  53  69  63  76 /  40  40  30  40  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  52  70  63  77 /  40  40  30  40  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  54  72  65  79 /  30  40  30  40  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  52  66  62  74 /  50  50  30  50  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  56  66  63  77 /  30  30  40  50  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  51  67  62  75 /  50  50  30  50  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  55  70  65  78 /  20  40  30  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  53  70  64  77 /  40  40  30  40  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  54  72  65  78 /  20  30  20  30  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  55  71  66  78 /  30  40  30  40  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  56  73  66  80 /  20  40  30  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 1139 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Cloud cover has increased over the area tonight, and scattered
light rain showers were entering our southwestern counties. The
showers may affect KSOA overnight, where a VCSH group has been
added. During the day Saturday, showers are expected to increase
in coverage, and carrying VCSH groups at all of the TAF sites.
Ceilings will gradually lower overnight and Saturday, and should
be in the 3500 to 4000 ft range by late afternoon. Scattered
showers will continue Saturday night, with ceilings lowering to
or below 3000 ft. Winds will be mostly from the southeast through
the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Cloud cover will increase tonight and Saturday. Expect ceilings to
remain VFR through Saturday morning. As moisture continues to
increase, light rain showers will develop across the area during
the afternoon. Carrying VCSH groups in the area TAFS for Saturday
afternoon, with ceilings lowering to or just above 3000 ft. Could
have some MVFR ceilings by late afternoon, but the better chance
for the lower ceilings should hold off until later in the evening.
Winds will be mostly from the southeast at 5-10 knots.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Weak shortwave will move into West Texas tonight and then across
West Central Texas on Saturday. The TTU WRF and the HRRR both show a
little more widespread rainfall as this wave passes than the larger
scale models. What showers that do develop will be battling some
very dry air at the surface, so the rain tonight may well evaporate
before reaching the ground. As low level moisture increases on
Saturday, the rain has a better and better chance of reaching the
ground. With this in mind, left the rain chances tonight very small
and confined to just the southwest counties. Increased rain chances
slightly for Saturday, especially for the eastern counties, and
pushed them northward across the I-20 corridor from Sweetwater to
Abilene. Overall though, most areas will see totals less than one
tenth of an inch.

Otherwise, cool conditions on Saturday with the additional rain and
cloud cover. Kept most areas in the 50s to around 60 for highs.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Sunday Night)

The combination of weak disturbances in west-southwest flow aloft
and isentropic lift/overrunning will bring a chance of showers and
few thunderstorms this weekend. The rainfall amounts will be light,
generally less than 1/10 of an inch for most areas...with local
amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch possible.

(Monday through Tuesday)

There will be a chance of thunderstorms Monday and Monday night and
then windy for Tuesday. The medium range models are indicating a
vigorous upper level trough developing over the western CONUS this
weekend, advancing east with the trough axis over the Southern
Rockies by 17/00Z. After that, strong mid to upper level ascent
spreads east into the Southern Plains Monday night into Tuesday
morning, along with a mid level speed max of 80 to 100 knots. At the
surface, a dryline/Pacific front will be just west of our area by
17/00Z. Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop
along the dryline late Monday afternoon into the evening and move
rapidly east across the area. A few storms may be severe due to
strong low and mid level shear and some instability. The PW values
of 1 to 1.25 inches may result in locally heavy rainfall across
mainly the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country. Most of the
storms should exit the area by late Monday night. A mid level dry
slot will follow for Tuesday, resulting in windy conditions with
gusts of 30 to 35 mph.

(Tuesday Night through Friday)

Looks like a quiet weather pattern with seasonable temperatures.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  44  58  50  62 /   5  30  20  50
San Angelo  46  57  52  65 /  20  40  20  50
Junction  48  57  51  65 /  10  40  30  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
642 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds with rain and mountain snow showers will decrease this
evening as cold front exits the Inland Northwest. The next weather
system will arrive Monday night with a good chance of low elevation
snow. Very strong winds are forecast for Tuesday and Tuesday
evening. Then a transition to cooler temperatures and snow
showers is anticipated for late in the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast is on track this evening with light rain and snow moving
into far eastern WA and north Idaho. Accumulating snow is limited
to elevations above about 3000 feet. The snow levels will continue
to drop this evening over north Idaho although HRRR is indicating
the back edge of the precip will move through quickly over the
next few hours. Appears that slick conditions are likely with
accumulations up to 1 to 2 inches for ID004 including eastern
Benewah and Latah Counties as well as Shoshone County.

Otherwise the wind advisory was allowed to expire with some local
gusts to 30 mph still occurring but no impacts as far as we can
tell.

Big story remains to be the light snow Monday evening and then a
very strong wind event Tuesday. Read more in the previous
dicussion attached below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front will continue to push across the region
this evening with a band of light precipitation. Expect mainly
rain at the TAF sites with snow levels above 4k ft, but cold air
advection will drop snow levels quickly behind the front to around
2500 ft. This may bring a rain/snow mix to the eastern TAF sites
by this evening along with a short period of MVFR cigs and mountains
obscurred. Gusty winds will be the main concern with southwest to
west and speeds 15g25-30kt. The strongest winds will be south of
KMWH-KPUW. The winds will taper off overnight as the showers end
and clouds increase. Light winds and VFR conditions are expected
by early Monday morning. High clouds will be on the increase after
18z Wed with light precipitation reaching the Cascades Wed
afternoon with local MVFR conds and mountains obscurred. /rfox


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds with rain and mountain snow showers will decrease this
evening as cold front exits the Inland Northwest. The next weather
system will arrive Monday night with a good chance of low elevation
snow. Very strong winds are forecast for Tuesday and Tuesday
evening. Then a transition to cooler temperatures and snow
showers is anticipated for late in the week.
Gusty winds with rain and mountain snow showers will decrease this
evening as cold front exits the Inland Northwest. The next weather
system will arrive Monday night with a good chance of low elevation
snow. Very strong winds are forecast for Tuesday and Tuesday
evening. Then a transition to cooler temperatures and snow
showers is anticipated for late in the week.

DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday: The Inland Northwest will be under the
influence of a cold front the subsequent upper level trough
overnight and high pressure building in for Monday. The front will
continue to track across eastern Washington and through north
Idaho this evening, bringing a band of precipitation of rain and
high mountain snow and packing with gusty westerly winds. The
precipation will remain fairly light - less than a tenth of an
inch for the valleys/low lands and a quarter an inch or so for the
mountains. Most areas while snow levels tumble quickly behind the
front with drier and colder snow. Snow levels will drop into the
valleys but the amount of additional moisture to generate snow
will be limited. So any appreciable snow accumulations will be
around a couple of inches. Gusty winds will prevail through the
day and taper off by early this evening. Expect winds of 20 to 30
mph with gusts to 40 mph with the prime areas being across the
Palouse and lower Columbia Basin. A Wind Advisory remains in
effect through the afternoon for these nuisance winds. Winds will
gradually taper off through the evening as showers fall apart and
clouds clear. The drying and cooling will lead to a chilly night
tonight with valley temperatures staying below freezing for
several hours late tonight, leading to a hard freeze, especially
in the sheltered areas. Would not rule out some patchy fog in the
northern rivers valleys by early Monday morning. High pressure
will be over the region for Monday morning with chilly but sunny
weather. This will rapidly deteriorate as a warm front lift across
Washington. Anticipate increasing clouds from the west and
southwest winds increasing. Temperatures will be slow to warm with
daytime highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. /rfox.

Monday night through Tuesday night...

..Valley snow Monday night followed by possible damaging winds on
Tuesday...

A dynamic forecast period beginning with valley snow followed by
the potential for high winds marks the two main focuses during
this forecast period. A warm front will bring widespread
precipitation Monday night with the leading edge of this moisture
plume being associated with another atmospheric river. The warm
front lifts out of the area by Tuesday morning resulting in much
milder but very windy conditions Tuesday. An upper level trough
from the Gulf of Alaska and an associated 150 kt upper jet drops
down into southern BC and northern WA and ID Tuesday afternoon. As
the jet drops towards the region a surface low rapidly intensifies
in the left exit region of the jet...going from 994mb off the
Central BC coast Tuesday morning to 975-985mb over southern
Alberta Tuesday afternoon. 850mb winds increase to 50-70 kts over
the region resulting in the potential for high winds. More details
to follow regarding the details...

*Weather/Precipitation type: Prior to the precip onset Monday
 evening...models have dew points at the surface in the low to mid
 20s. This will help keep the snow levels low as wet bulb cooling
 occurs. Model soundings suggest snow the most likely outcome
 initially except for lower elevations from Wenatchee to Moses
 Lake to Ritzville southward to the Oregon border where rain is
 likely. Warm advection increases quickly however overnight from
 the south with snow expected to change to rain for all valleys
 except near the Canadian border where snow may linger into early
 to mid Tuesday morning. Thus despite the light forecast
 accumulations...impacts are expected to be low but those
 traveling Monday night may encouter some winter driving
 conditions. Snow levels Tuesday rise to 6000-7000 feet with even
 the mountains changing to rain. Models show the potential for 2-3
 inches of rain near the crest on Tuesday as a moist atmospheric
 river is aimed at the area. Very strong zonal flow into the
 Cascades will lead to a significant rain shadow likely extending
 to the Idaho border by Tuesday afternoon. The cold front passes
 Tuesday night with lowering snow levels. Strong zonal flow with
 the front passage should keep precipitation confined mostly to
 the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle where light accumulations are
 possible behind the front as snow levels lower back down below
 pass levels.

*Wind: A high wind watch has been issued for much of the Inland NW
 on Tuesday. As the surface low over BC and Alberta deepens, winds
 will be increasing. Models currently show the strongest
 prefrontal southwest winds extending from the Upper Columbia
 Basin northeast into the Idaho Panhandle with 850mb winds peaking
 late Tuesday afternoon and evening at 55-70 kts. Precise values
 are still uncertain due to model differences with the depth of
 the low. With strong westerly flow its expected that precip will
 shut off for most of Central and Eastern Washington Tuesday
 afternoon. This should allow the lower levels to warm allowing
 for increased mixing potential. More uncertainty exists for the
 Idaho Panhandle and Cascades where more cloud cover and rain
 could limit mixing potential in the valleys. However the
 mountains will be exposed to the winds. In the Cascades the NAM
 and UW-WRF GFS show the potential for localized strong gusts
 Tuesday morning and afternoon with this area on the warm side of
 the jet with possible mountain waves creating these localized
 high wind gusts. After the cold front passes Tuesday
 evening...winds will increase on a more widespread basin through
 the Cascade gaps and western basin with the potential for high
 wind gusts mixing down. JW

Wednesday through Sunday: The region will be under dry and cool
northwest flow Wednesday as the upper-level jet sags into
Northern Oregon. Winds will be breezy early Wednesday morning but
look to weaken as the day progresses. Cooler continental air
filtering in from Canada will cool temperatures back into the 30s
and 40s much closer to our seasonal averages.

The jet and associated baroclinic region will get hung up across
northern Oregon through early Friday. The exact placement of this
west to east oriented region will have significant ramifications
on our weather as yet another rich plume of moisture accompanies
the next low pressure system coming onshore. This leads to
moderate confidence for a slow moving shield of light to moderate
precipitation. However, confidence remains low in regards to how
far north or south of the WA/OR border this sets up. The current
range stretches from around the Hwy 2 corridor in Washington to
I-84 corridor in northern Oregon. Snow levels will be just as
complex. The cool and dry antecedent air mass will allow snow down
toward 2000 feet at the start of the event Thursday but should
rise closer to 4000 feet when the deeper moisture arrives later in
the day. If the track is further south, snow levels may be lower
or vice versus. Needless to say, our confidence is increasing for
this precipitation event but carries lower confidence where it
will setup. A shortwave dropping in from the north will shove the
system to the south on Friday with drier northerly flow to the
Inland NW. This will bring another push of cooler continental air
but nothing out of the ordinary at this time.

The region remains in a northwest storm track well into the
weekend with the next slug of moisture arriving somewhere in the
Sunday-Tuesday time-frame. Some model runs manifest this into a
deep low pressure system while other give us a glancing blow.
Examining the bigger picture, models tend to agree on
amplification of the offshore ridge which is favorable for a cool
storm system into the Pac NW. Uncertainty centers on the location
of the ridge axis off the coast and how far west this cooler
system will dig toward the Coast. I am thinking a cool down is on
the horizon but exact timing is tough to pinpoint right now with
timing somewhere between late Sunday and Wednesday. Climate
Prediction Center outlooks are also showing a strong signal for
this cooling. /sb

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front will continue to push across the region
this evening with a band of light precipitation. Expect mainly
rain at the TAF sites with snow levels above 4k ft, but cold air
advection will drop snow levels quickly behind the front to around
2500 ft. This may bring a rain/snow mix to the eastern TAF sites
by this evening along with a short period of MVFR cigs and mountains
obscurred. Gusty winds will be the main concern with southwest to
west and speeds 15g25-30kt. The strongest winds will be south of
KMWH-KPUW. The winds will taper off overnight as the showers end
and clouds increase. Light winds and VFR conditions are expected
by early Monday morning. High clouds will be on the increase after
18z Wed with light precipitation reaching the Cascades Wed
afternoon with local MVFR conds and mountains obscurred. /rfox
00Z TAFS: A cold front will continue to push across the region
this evening with a band of light precipitation. Expect mainly
rain at the TAF sites with snow levels above 4k ft, but cold air
advection will drop snow levels quickly behind the front to around
2500 ft. This may bring a rain/snow mix to the eastern TAF sites
by this evening along with a short period of MVFR cigs and mountains
obscurred. Gusty winds will be the main concern with southwest to
west and speeds 15g25-30kt. The strongest winds will be south of
KMWH-KPUW. The winds will taper off overnight as the showers end
and clouds increase. Light winds and VFR conditions are expected
by early Monday morning. High clouds will be on the increase after
18z Wed with light precipitation reaching the Cascades Wed
afternoon with local MVFR conds and mountains obscurred. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  39  33  55  34  43 /  60   0 100  60  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  30  39  32  54  34  44 /  80  10 100  90  40  10
Pullman        29  38  33  54  36  45 /  60  10 100  70  50  10
Lewiston       35  44  36  59  39  51 /  50  10  60  70  50  10
Colville       29  41  33  56  29  43 /  70  10 100  70  50  10
Sandpoint      31  38  31  50  32  41 /  80  10 100 100  90  10
Kellogg        31  34  29  45  31  40 /  80  10 100 100 100  40
Moses Lake     26  45  39  64  36  51 /  10  10  60  10  10  10
Wenatchee      32  43  36  59  38  50 /  10  20  50  30  40  10
Omak           29  43  34  60  30  44 /  10  10  70  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez
     Perce Counties-Northern Panhandle.

WA...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     East Slopes Northern Cascades.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 1056 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER
TROUGHING MOVING EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES HOWEVER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH A WIDESPREAD OVERCAST OVER THE NORTHEAST THREE QUARTERS
OF THE STATE.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING NE WI AND THINK DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE SNOW BELTS...BUT ALSO
THINK THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE 21-00Z TIME PERIOD. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING EAST OVER WESTERN
WI AHEAD OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVER MINNESOTA.  SOME
BREAKS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS.  FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS...AND ALSO TEMPS.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.  THE INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
ADVANCEMENT OF MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCELERATE A CLEARING TREND THIS
EVENING.  WILL ONLY SEE THE PASSAGE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS EXIT.  TEMPS ARE RATHER TRICKY SINCE WINDS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH...AND NOW THERE IS FRESH SNOWPACK IN THE
SNOWBELT AREAS. TEMPS COULD EASILY FALL INTO THE TEENS IF THERE IS A
PERIOD OF CALM WINDS...WHICH COULD HAPPEN NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS.
ELSEWHERE...LOW TO MID 20S LOOK ABOUT RIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ADVECT IN WARMER
AIR.  SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS
OVERHEAD.  THOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL GENERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S ON
SUNDAY...BUT ALSO CARRY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION WITH
THE MODERATING TEMPS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THEN THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. SIMILAR TO THE RECENT SYSTEM THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND SWEEP THROUGH BY FRIDAY EVENING...USHERING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL PULL OUT OF FAR NE WI NEAR THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP
WHERE A SNOW COVER EXISTS IN FAR NC WI...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...
ALLOWING GUSTY SW WINDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING.

SOME MARGINAL LLWS WILL DEVELOP SAT EVG...AS WSW WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 35 KTS JUST OFF THE SFC.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KTS ARE STILL OCCURRING...BUT
APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IS TOO LOW TO
CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING. WILL DOWNGRADE THE WARNING INTO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE LATE. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS
AND BUILDING WAVES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........MPC





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

 341 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

The greatest impacts weather-wise today will be convective chances
as early as mid afternoon in the far western sections of the
forecast area. A relative low cape and high shear environment will
be favorable for a developing line of storms as the convection
develops over extreme eastern Colorado and moves east into a richer
low level moisture environment. Several of the convective allowing
models including the WRF ARW/4km NAM support the HRRR in this
general solution, although the HRRR could be developing convection a
little too fast in the early afternoon. The main threats will likely
center on severe thunderstorms wind gusts given any momentum
transport in an already windy environment expected late this
afternoon.  Abundant insolation today and starting out relatively
mild in the low 50s/upper 40s will aid in a rapid warming into the
60s by this afternoon.

The next issue will be just how much of an impact winds and
deformation zone precipitation have of the area heading into
Tuesday. Between the ECMWF/GFS/NAM family of models, extremely large
variances have been seen in total snow output, although given the
pattern the lower NAM model QPF and snow totals seem most reasonable
at this point. The best frontogenetic forcing and colder air for
dendritic growth should be farther  north near NW KS, and drier
boundary layer air will need to be overcome in sw KS for anything
more than minor snow amounts to be considered. That being said,
strong gradient wind could create some travel impact even with a
couple of inches of snow in the extreme western counties.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

The rest of the forecast period looks relatively dry and seasonal as
far as temperatures go. As the upper low shifts off the east
Wednesday, another wave drops through the Northern Plains in it`s
heels. However the central High plains region appears to remain
under westerly zonal to slight northwesterly flow aloft until the
next baroclinic zone enters the region from the northwest next
weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

Broad low level moisture transport across the central plains will
remain in place during the TAF period. The scattered showers should
be ending over the next few hours with gradually increasing ceilings
by early Monday morning. The next strong wave approaches the
region tomorrow night as the convective allowing models begin to
favor a broken line of convection developing around the Colorado
line and morning east. Convection chances were included in all the
terminals from very late Monday through Monday evening. Windy
conditions will affect the terminals through much of the day.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  40  45  30 /  30  60  60  40
GCK  68  38  40  30 /  50  30  70  40
EHA  67  37  37  32 /  50  30  70  30
LBL  69  38  41  33 /  50  40  60  30
HYS  68  43  46  31 /  30  60  60  50
P28  68  46  55  34 /  40  70  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 1157 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON HAS PROVIDED CLEAR
SKIES TO MOST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST AND
CAUSES THE UPPER FLOW TO BACK TO SOUTHERLY. A SMALL AREA OF CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF DULUTH/SUPERIOR HAD SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS SINCE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN
COVERAGE. THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THE CLOUD WILL DIMINISH...BUT
EARLIER RUNS OF THE RAP INDICATED THE CLOUD WILL BE ABOUT GONE BY
NOW...BUT THAT HAS NOT OCCURRED. WE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THE
HEAD OF THE LAKE...THEN INCREASE ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO
AROUND 0.75 INCHES OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA...THEN TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH
BY 00Z TUESDAY. THESE VALUES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUE REPORTED AT KINL ON NOVEMBER 16 OF 0.79
INCHES. WE EXPECT FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS
WELL...MAINLY LATE.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR CWA. WE ADDED
THE MENTION OF FOG TO ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT EXPECT IT TO
BE MOST WIDESPREAD AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A HALF
INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 IN THE ARROWHEAD AND TO
AROUND 40 FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
RISE LATE AS CLOUDS THICKEN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
FORTIES TO AROUND FIFTY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
N/NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A NEARLY CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG WAA IN THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH BROAD LARGE-SCALE LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LOW AND AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...PWATS AROUND
1 INCH...WILL ALLOW FOR AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS
TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
WEAK...BUT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. TWO WAVES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 100-
200 J/KG WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE REGION TUES AND WED...AND HELP
TRIGGER THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS.

AS THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH NRN MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED A
SECONDARY LOW FROM THE NW WILL PHASE WITH THE PARENT LOW AND ALSO
DRAW DOWN A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS TO CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE NE ACROSS ONTARIO WED
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT BE LACKING OF MOISTURE AND ONLY
BE CAPABLE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. AT THIS MOMENT IT
APPEARS ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MAY SEE AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES. THE PERSISTENT COLD NWLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

THE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 40S. THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THE AMT OF NIGHT
TIME COOLING. HOWEVER...THE COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

AN AREA OF STRATUS IS MOVING STEADILY TOWARDS THE TERMINALS AS OF
05Z...WITH LOW END VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z. THEN...RAIN SHOWERS TO ALSO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND BRING A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IN
IFR CONDITIONS SOME TIME BETWEEN 15Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. BEHIND
THE BAND OF RAIN LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  48  45  49 /  30  90  70 100
INL  36  49  45  49 /  10  60  70  80
BRD  42  51  47  51 /  20  70  80  90
HYR  34  51  45  51 /  20  70  70 100
ASX  33  52  44  53 /  20  70  70  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...LE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

 1004 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY BEFORE DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MODERATING TREND DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...THE SMALL SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPLEX HAS SHIFTED TOWARD LINCOLN
COUNTY AT THE PRESENT. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
LOW HAS WORKED INTO MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE LARGER SCALE COMMA HEAD
HAS ELONGATED AND STRETCHED OUT. WE GOT A REPORT OF GRAUPEL COVERING
THE GROUND IN KINGMAN THIS EVENING AS HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION PASSED ON THROUGH. RECENTLY A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES POPPED UP UNDER THE SMALL SCALE LOW CENTER IN
LINCOLN COUNTY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ADDED INTO THE GRIDS
THERE FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF TONIGHT.

I MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES WE HAVE OUT AFTER LOOKING
AT SOME DATA THIS EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
LINCOLN COUNTY ABOVE 3500 FEET AS WE SHOULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH LOCALIZED 4 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS IN ANY HEAVIER BURSTS OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY FROM THE
HIGHWAY 93 CORRIDOR ON EAST. FURTHER WEST LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. I ALSO UPGRADED THE WIND
ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY
ZONE AS WELL AS THE MORONGO BASIN ZONE. POWERFUL NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT
AND A 90 KT+ JET AT 250 MB MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. MOS GUIDANCE FOR TPH CONTINUES TO SHOW 40 KT SUSTAINED
WINDS ON THE MAV WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST SET A FEW OF THE MORE PRONE
SENSORS ON THE NORTH END OF THE NEVADA NATIONAL SECURITY SITE TO HIT
AT LEAST 60 MPH FOR A GUST. FURTHER SOUTH, THERE MAY BE SOME GAP
FUNNELING BETWEEN THE MOUNTAINS THAT FAVORS AREAS OF 58 MPH OR
GREATER FOR GUSTS IN THE MORONGO BASIN AS THE WINDS GO WEST-
NORTHWEST JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LANDERS AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF YUCCA VALLEY WHERE WE GET
SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OFF THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO RANGE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD START
SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING BETWEEN 10 PM AND
2AM. THE DIRECTION WILL START SHIFTING MORE NORTHWEST AROUND 12Z
MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS SPOTTY
THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO ONLY MENTIONING VCSH IN THE FORECAST.
NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 KTS ALONG WITH 35-40 KT GUSTS. THE WIND
WILL START TO DIMINISH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE DOWNSTREAM OF HIGHER TERRAIN EXPECT TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE LIKELY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS INYO AND NYE COUNTIES WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA...EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM BARSTOW EAST TO KINGMAN. IN THIS SAME CORRIDOR WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 9 AM AND 11 AM MONDAY. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS COMMON. MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE DOWNSTREAM
OF HIGHER TERRAIN EXPECT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PATCHES OF
BLDU ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF DRY LAKE BEDS.
&&

.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR AND MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS WHAT IS A SMALL
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH
A COMMA SHAPED SIGNATURE NOTED ON IMAGERY. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS PUSHING
EAST ACROSS EASTERN CLARK COUNTY INTO MOHAVE COUNTY AND POPS WERE
INCREASED FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BAND AS
WELL AS ADDING IN THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. BEHIND THIS, THERE
IS A DEFINED BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION BUT ADDITIONAL BATCHES
OF SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY SO POPS WERE TWEAKED UP A BIT THERE.

ONE THING THE SHOWERS HAVE DONE IS MOISTENED UP THE ATMOSPHERE
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE TOP DOWN. DEWPOINTS ARE UP INTO THE 40S IN LAS
VEGAS WHICH IS A BIG BUST ON THE END OF GUIDANCE AND WHAT WE HAD IN
THE FORECAST SO THESE WERE TWEAKED. THIS CREATES TWO ISSUES. ONE IS
THAT WINDS ARE NOT REALLY GUSTING AS WE HAVE A LOT LESS DRY AIR AND
THERMAL CONTRAST TO WORK WITH AND WIND SPEEDS WERE LOWERED ACROSS
ALL AREAS THIS EVENING AND FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE ADVISORIES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WE WILL STILL GET THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AHEAD OF THE FRONT MY THOUGHT IS THAT ADVISORY
WINDS WILL BE LOCALIZED OUTSIDE OF THE OWENS VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING DUST WAS ALSO REMOVED
FROM MOST AREAS GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND.

THE SECOND CONCERN WITH THE EXTRA MOISTURE IS SNOW LEVELS. UNLESS WE
DRY OUT MORE, IT WILL BE TOUGHER TO GET SNOW DOWN FURTHER EVEN WHEN
WE WET BULB WITH DEWPOINTS INITIALLY WELL ABOVE 32 DEGREES. HOWEVER,
THE COLDER NATURE OF THE AIR MASS WILL DROP TEMPS SHARPLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. ON THE OTHER HAND, AT THAT POINT WE MAY SEE TEMPS DROP CLOSER
TO DEWPOINTS AND AS THESE PLUNGE THROUGH THE 30S PRECIP COULD HAVE
LESS OF A DRY LOW-LEVEL TO OVERCOME WHICH WOULD BETTER RESULT IN
SOMETHING REACHING THE GROUND.

THE LATEST GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. ANOTHER UPDATE
WILL FOLLOW LATER THIS EVENING IF NEED BE.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 315 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS
BEGUN TO SPREAD ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL HIRES MODELS SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH SOUTHERN NEVADA
EARLY EVENING AND THEN INTO MOHAVE COUNTY BY LATE EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS BAND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6000 FEET...BUT AS IT REACHES MOHAVE COUNTY
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN THAT SNOW LEVELS
COULD DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY LATE EVENING. WITH THE EARLIER
TIMING IN PRECIPITATION DID GO AHEAD AND CHANGE THE START TIME OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOHAVE COUNTY FROM 3AM TO 10PM THIS
EVENING. STILL THINK THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE MOST OF THE
CRITICAL TRAVEL AREAS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
EARLIER ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING WINDS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. SO FAR WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND CLARK COUNTIES HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE...BUT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
INCREASING AND DO EXPECTED WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST IS MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA BETWEEN 10-12Z
MONDAY MORNING WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALSO DRAMATICALLY DROP SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
THE MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXCEPT FOR MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE DOWN TO 3000 FEET BY MID MORNING. THE BEST AREAS OF
SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE GRAND CANYON PARASHANT
NATIONAL MONUMENT WHERE AMOUNTS COULD REACH 6 INCHES. 2-3 INCHES
OVER COLORADO CITY AND PIPE SPRINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE IS A
CONCERN FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE VIRGIN RIVER GORGE
ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION FALLS AT A HEAVY ENOUGH RATE. AREAS TO
THE WEST SUCH AS CLARK...SOUTHERN NYE...AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DOWN TO 2000-
2500 FEET OR SO ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE
ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT MORE DYNAMIC. THERE COULD BE SOME CONCERNS FOR
AREAS SUCH AS MOUNTAIN PASS ON I-15 AND MOUNTAIN SPRINGS SUMMIT
BETWEEN LAS VEGAS AND PAHRUMP...BUT IF THERE ARE ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME THEY LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL RATHER
WINTERLIKE ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS OVER MOST AREAS...BUT SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES COULD
SEE WARNING LEVEL WINDS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE 20-30 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTHERLY BREEZES. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ENHANCE THOSE NORTHERLY BREEZES JUST A BIT
FOR FRIDAY, BUT NOTHING TOO STRONG. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES AT SOME
POINT, YET TIMING AND LOCATION ARE WAY OFF. EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS
LIKE A DRY WEEKEND FOR NOW. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT WILL
INCREASE AND BE 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
PUSHING 70 IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THEN PERHAPS A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

 932 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY BEFORE DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MODERATING TREND DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...THE SMALL SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPLEX HAS SHIFTED TOWARD LINCOLN
COUNTY AT THE PRESENT. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
LOW HAS WORKED INTO MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE LARGER SCALE COMMA HEAD
HAS ELONGATED AND STRETCHED OUT. WE GOT A REPORT OF GRAUPEL COVERING
THE GROUND IN KINGMAN THIS EVENING AS HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION PASSED ON THROUGH. RECENTLY A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES POPPED UP UNDER THE SMALL SCALE LOW CENTER IN
LINCOLN COUNTY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ADDED INTO THE GRIDS
THERE FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF TONIGHT.

I MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES WE HAVE OUT AFTER LOOKING
AT SOME DATA THIS EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
LINCOLN COUNTY ABOVE 3500 FEET AS WE SHOULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH LOCALIZED 4 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS IN ANY HEAVIER BURSTS OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY FROM THE
HIGHWAY 93 CORRIDOR ON EAST. FURTHER WEST LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. I ALSO UPGRADED THE WIND
ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY
ZONE AS WELL AS THE MORONGO BASIN ZONE. POWERFUL NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT
AND A 90 KT+ JET AT 250 MB MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. MOS GUIDANCE FOR TPH CONTINUES TO SHOW 40 KT SUSTAINED
WINDS ON THE MAV WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST SET A FEW OF THE MORE PRONE
SENSORS ON THE NORTH END OF THE NEVADA NATIONAL SECURITY SITE TO HIT
AT LEAST 60 MPH FOR A GUST. FURTHER SOUTH, THERE MAY BE SOME GAP
FUNNELING BETWEEN THE MOUNTAINS THAT FAVORS AREAS OF 58 MPH OR
GREATER FOR GUSTS IN THE MORONGO BASIN AS THE WINDS GO WEST-
NORTHWEST JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LANDERS AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF YUCCA VALLEY WHERE WE GET
SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OFF THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO RANGE.
&&

.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR AND MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS WHAT IS A SMALL
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH
A COMMA SHAPED SIGNATURE NOTED ON IMAGERY. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS PUSHING
EAST ACROSS EASTERN CLARK COUNTY INTO MOHAVE COUNTY AND POPS WERE
INCREASED FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BAND AS
WELL AS ADDING IN THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. BEHIND THIS, THERE
IS A DEFINED BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION BUT ADDITIONAL BATCHES
OF SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY SO POPS WERE TWEAKED UP A BIT THERE.

ONE THING THE SHOWERS HAVE DONE IS MOISTENED UP THE ATMOSPHERE
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE TOP DOWN. DEWPOINTS ARE UP INTO THE 40S IN LAS
VEGAS WHICH IS A BIG BUST ON THE END OF GUIDANCE AND WHAT WE HAD IN
THE FORECAST SO THESE WERE TWEAKED. THIS CREATES TWO ISSUES. ONE IS
THAT WINDS ARE NOT REALLY GUSTING AS WE HAVE A LOT LESS DRY AIR AND
THERMAL CONTRAST TO WORK WITH AND WIND SPEEDS WERE LOWERED ACROSS
ALL AREAS THIS EVENING AND FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE ADVISORIES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WE WILL STILL GET THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AHEAD OF THE FRONT MY THOUGHT IS THAT ADVISORY
WINDS WILL BE LOCALIZED OUTSIDE OF THE OWENS VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING DUST WAS ALSO REMOVED
FROM MOST AREAS GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND.

THE SECOND CONCERN WITH THE EXTRA MOISTURE IS SNOW LEVELS. UNLESS WE
DRY OUT MORE, IT WILL BE TOUGHER TO GET SNOW DOWN FURTHER EVEN WHEN
WE WET BULB WITH DEWPOINTS INITIALLY WELL ABOVE 32 DEGREES. HOWEVER,
THE COLDER NATURE OF THE AIR MASS WILL DROP TEMPS SHARPLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. ON THE OTHER HAND, AT THAT POINT WE MAY SEE TEMPS DROP CLOSER
TO DEWPOINTS AND AS THESE PLUNGE THROUGH THE 30S PRECIP COULD HAVE
LESS OF A DRY LOW-LEVEL TO OVERCOME WHICH WOULD BETTER RESULT IN
SOMETHING REACHING THE GROUND.

THE LATEST GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. ANOTHER UPDATE
WILL FOLLOW LATER THIS EVENING IF NEED BE.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 315 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS
BEGUN TO SPREAD ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL HIRES MODELS SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH SOUTHERN NEVADA
EARLY EVENING AND THEN INTO MOHAVE COUNTY BY LATE EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS BAND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6000 FEET...BUT AS IT REACHES MOHAVE COUNTY
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN THAT SNOW LEVELS
COULD DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY LATE EVENING. WITH THE EARLIER
TIMING IN PRECIPITATION DID GO AHEAD AND CHANGE THE START TIME OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOHAVE COUNTY FROM 3AM TO 10PM THIS
EVENING. STILL THINK THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE MOST OF THE
CRITICAL TRAVEL AREAS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
EARLIER ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING WINDS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. SO FAR WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND CLARK COUNTIES HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE...BUT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
INCREASING AND DO EXPECTED WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST IS MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA BETWEEN 10-12Z
MONDAY MORNING WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALSO DRAMATICALLY DROP SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
THE MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXCEPT FOR MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE DOWN TO 3000 FEET BY MID MORNING. THE BEST AREAS OF
SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE GRAND CANYON PARASHANT
NATIONAL MONUMENT WHERE AMOUNTS COULD REACH 6 INCHES. 2-3 INCHES
OVER COLORADO CITY AND PIPE SPRINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE IS A
CONCERN FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE VIRGIN RIVER GORGE
ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION FALLS AT A HEAVY ENOUGH RATE. AREAS TO
THE WEST SUCH AS CLARK...SOUTHERN NYE...AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DOWN TO 2000-
2500 FEET OR SO ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE
ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT MORE DYNAMIC. THERE COULD BE SOME CONCERNS FOR
AREAS SUCH AS MOUNTAIN PASS ON I-15 AND MOUNTAIN SPRINGS SUMMIT
BETWEEN LAS VEGAS AND PAHRUMP...BUT IF THERE ARE ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME THEY LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL RATHER
WINTERLIKE ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS OVER MOST AREAS...BUT SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES COULD
SEE WARNING LEVEL WINDS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE 20-30 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTHERLY BREEZES. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ENHANCE THOSE NORTHERLY BREEZES JUST A BIT
FOR FRIDAY, BUT NOTHING TOO STRONG. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES AT SOME
POINT, YET TIMING AND LOCATION ARE WAY OFF. EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS
LIKE A DRY WEEKEND FOR NOW. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT WILL
INCREASE AND BE 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
PUSHING 70 IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THEN PERHAPS A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEGUN
AT THE TERMINAL AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. GENERALLY
EXPECT SPEEDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS TO
BE AROUND 12Z WITH VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OCCURRING THEREAFTER.
SPEEDS 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY. EXPECT LOWERING CIGS TONIGHT COINCIDING WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CIGS MAY FALL TO 5K FT MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
PASSING SHOWERS THAT OCCUR. CIGS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. REGARDING PRECIP...LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES EXIST AROUND
3Z AND AGAIN COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 12Z. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY...BRIEF...AND ALL LIQUID AT THE AIRPORT.
PIREPS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE
DOWNSTREAM OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEGUN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS 15-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WITH A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
VERY STRONG TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS 25-35 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 45
KTS...ESPECIALLY FOR WIND-PRONE KDAG AND KIFP. BLDU IS POSSIBLE AT
KDAG OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH REDUCED VSBY POSSIBLE. EXPECT
SHOWERS AT KDAG EARLY THIS EVENING...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KBIH
OVERNIGHT...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER TO 5-10K FT
COINCIDING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND/OR SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVE
RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE HAS BEEN
REPORTED THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF BLDU ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
DOWNSTREAM OF DRY LAKE BEDS AND IN OPEN TERRAIN.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 315 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

A COOLING TREND BEGINS TODAY WITH STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG
HIGHLIGHTING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS. LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SPLITTING TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SFC-
700MB LOW MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY...THEN THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER WASHINGTON
STATE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THE RECENT PATTERN OF A SPLIT
FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH WEAK INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN BRANCH IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BY IN LARGE THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FLOW AS
WE END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND ADVANCE INTO THE LONG TERM.

THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
FOG/STRATUS LOOP. OVERCAST CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ARCH
WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAS OF FOG STILL ON TRACK
MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ANTICIPATING SOME DENSE AREAS
AS WELL. MINOT IS CURRENTLY AT 6SM WHILE GLEN ULLIN IS AT THREE
QUARTERS OF A MILE. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SHIFT NORTH BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...HOWEVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE MONDAY MORNING AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM JUST EAST OF BISMARCK THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES IN THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.

ON TUESDAY...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN
AREAS. REGION REMAINS NEAR THE CONVERGENCE OF SPLIT FLOW AS UPPER
LOW WORKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM
AND PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST EARLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...BEFORE
CONVERGING WITH SECONDARY LOW LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
QUICKLY ADVANCE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING STRONG
MIXING DEVELOPING WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 850
MB. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES PUSH THROUGH AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS SCENARIO...HAVE INCREASED WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ADEQUATE MIXING OF THE STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN
ON THE STRONG AND GUSTY SIDE AS 40-50 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY BRING AN OCCASIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW...THOUGH THE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM
CST MON NOV 16 2015

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR BY 12Z AT KJMS. OTHERWISE LIFR
CIGS AND IFR VSBYS FORECAST AT KBIS/KMOT BETWEEN 11Z-12Z MONDAY
WHILE KISN IS JUST ON THE FRINGES OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. KDIK WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR KBIS/KMOT...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17Z-18Z. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER KISN BY 20Z AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CIGS AT KJMS MONDAY EVENING UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1148 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS NOW SLIDING
INTO DICKEY COUNTY AND MOVING NORTH TOWARD JAMESTOWN. CEILINGS
BASED AT 2800FT AGL PER LATEST ABERDEEN OBSERVATION. LATEST HRRR
CEILING FORECAST ON TRACK AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN AREA OF
LOWERING CLOUDS/STRATUS DEVELOP FARTHER WEST TO AND ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ALSO
STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z-12Z IN CONCERT WITH THE
LOWERING STRATUS DECK...HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE BY MID MORNING
MOST OF THE FOG WILL LIFT AS THE STRATUS ALSO BEGINS TO SHIFT
NORTH. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY. FOR THIS UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH THE REST OF THE GRIDDED
ELEMENTS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MOST GRIDS THIS EVENING. CONSSHORT DID
BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GIVEN
THE EXPECTED STRATUS TO ADVECT INTO THAT REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALSO MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO SKY COVER. LATEST ITERATIONS OF
MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRATUS SPREADING NORTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BEGINNING IN THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND 07-09 UTC...AND SPREADING INTO
MINOT AND NEAR BISMARCK CLOSER TO 12 UTC. WESTER FRINGE OF THE LOW
STRATUS STRADDLES THE BISMARCK AREA AND REMAINS JUST WEST OF
WILLISTON. GREATEST THREAT OF LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG FROM
MESOSCALE MODELS EXTENDS ALONG THE MISSOURI FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO
LAKE SAKAKAWEA...AND BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE
LAKE...FROM AROUND GARRISON TO MINOT...BOWBELLS AND CROSBY. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER
NW-WCNTRAL ND MONDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO STRADDLES BISMARCK AND
REMAINS JUST WEST OF WILLISTON. WILL BE A TRICKY TAF NIGHT AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT FOR KDIK WHICH REMAINS IN VFR...BUT MORE SO AT KBIS
AND KISN DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND PROXIMITY OF THE FOG AND
STRATUS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

QUIET THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 5
TO 15 MPH. ONLY CHANGES FOR THE EVENING OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE TO LOWER SKY COVER. STILL EXPECT
INCREASING LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

FOG TONIGHT AND A COOLER MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY FIELDS FROM THE 12 AND 18 UTC 4KM NAM
NEST AND THE 18-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12 UTC GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON PROPAGATING NORTH AND BEGINNING TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 07-09 UTC TONIGHT. MAINTAINED THE FOG
MENTION IN THE GRIDS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS NEEDED GIVEN THE SIGNAL IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION
VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MONDAY...AFTER A VERY MILD SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES FOR MOST FIELDS MONDAY WITH
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 40S WEST...AND 50S CENTRAL.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOG AND STRATUS IMPACTS MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT FROM THE CONSENSUS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LONG TERM INCLUDE OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...A COOLING TREND...AND WINDY CONDITIONS MID-WEEK.

BY MONDAY EVENING THERE IS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FRONT RANGE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER COLORADO. THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST AS THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...BLENDING
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA. THESE SCENARIOS TRANSLATE TO
A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE
AREA...ARRIVING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
PUSHING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN THE EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE
STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AS A SHORT WAVE LIFTS THROUGH SPLIT FLOW AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN - ESPECIALLY THE JAMES
VALLEY - AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

FOR TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...THOUGH STILL REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...WITH A WINTRY
MIX POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLDER AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO THE VALLEY.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT DIVES THROUGH THE AREA.
STRONG WINDS ARE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE MIXING 50KT WINDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-DAY.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS EVOLVES. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MANY PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH MAINLY
RAIN DURING THE DAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IT THE WAKE OF THE STRONG WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT...WITH A FEW
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR TO FOLLOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES...WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KJMS BY 07Z MONDAY WITH LOWERING CIGS INTO
THE IFR RANGE BY 12Z. IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ALSO
EXPECTED AT KBIS/KMOT BETWEEN 11Z-12Z MONDAY WHILE KISN IS JUST
ON THE FRINGES OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

FOR KBIS/KMOT...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17Z-18Z. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER KISN BY 20Z AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CIGS AT KJMS MONDAY EVENING. KDIK...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

 852 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH
MORE RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS
PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW LATER MON AND LINGERS THROUGH WED. HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WASHINGTON. THEN SHOWERY AND COOLER TO
CLOSE THE WEEK. WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WILL
ALSO TURN A TAD MORE COOLER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MAIN PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOW PUSHING ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON...AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CASCADES BY
MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WILL BE
DECREASING. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW...GENERALLY AROUND 2500 TO
3000 FEET TONIGHT INTO MON AM. BUT WITH SHOWERS DECREASING...SEEMS
ONLY REASONABLE THAT WOULD ONLY EXPECT NEW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN 2
INCHES OR LESS IN THE CASCADES. SO FAR TODAY...MOST AREAS IN THE
CASCADES RECEIVED ABOUT 2 TO 5 INCHES. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EXPIRES AT MIDNIGHT...AND WILL LET THAT EXPIRE AT THAT TIME.
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES DROP AND ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADS
FREEZES.

WITH SHOWERS DECREASING...WILL SEE BIGGER BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS
TONIGHT. HAVE LOWERED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES AS
THINK MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL DROP IN THE
MIDDLE 30S. THIS SAID...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN RURAL AREAS
ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND BY THE COAST RANGE.
ALSO...WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS TONIGHT AS AIR
MASS COOLS AND WINDS DROP. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM MAY PERSIST WELL
INTO MON AM...AS INCREASING CLOUDS WILL SLOW ITS DISSIPATION.

CURRENT NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT STORM OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. IT IS THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING RAIN ON MONDAY. THE 1838Z BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE INDICATED 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES WITHIN
THIS FETCH. MODELS HAVE THE NEXT WARM FRONT SPREADING ACROSS THE WA
AND N OREGON COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING...THEN SHIFTING INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW LEVELS MAY NOT HAVE TIME TO RISE MUCH BEFORE
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION... AND CAN SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
EVENING. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS THE SNOW LEVELS ABOVE THE
PASSES LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON QPF...THE S
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES COULD CERTAINLY MEET
SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT THE SNOW LEVELS TO CLIMB TO AROUND
6500 FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ISSUE TO CONSIDER TUE WILL BE STRONG WIND. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS
50-60 KT 850 MB WIND ACROSS SW WA...THE N OREGON COAST AND COAST
RANGE TUE AFTERNOON. THE WRF GFS HAS A SMALL BAND OF 35-40 KT
SUSTAINED 10M WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON COAST 00Z
WED. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
WILL LET NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS MAKE FURTHER ANALYSIS. THE STRONG 850
MB WLY FLOW TUE THROUGH TUE EVENING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES FOR SW WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON. MAY ALSO
HAVE TO CONSIDER ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY TUE SAGS S AS A COLD FRONT TUE EVENING...WITH
SNOW LEVELS FALLING BELOW THE CASCADES PASSES. PRECIP LOOKS TO WIND
DOWN DRAMATICALLY AFTER 06Z WED WITH JUST RESIDUAL SHOWERS WED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS LIKELY TO SET UP OVER OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKER SO IT SHOULDN`T BRING AS
MUCH PRECIP AS OTHER SYSTEMS THIS WEEK. BEYOND THURSDAY...MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE GFS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC KEEPING US DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS US IN THE ACTIVE
STORM TRACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THIS REASON KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MORE WEIGHT TOWARD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE STORM
TRACK OVER OUR AREA THAN THE GFS HAS BEEN KEEPING US DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...AN UNSTABLE SHOWERY AIR MASS LEADING TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING IS BEGINNING TO STABILIZE. THIS MAY LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR THE INTERIOR TAF
SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 17Z MONDAY. HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVERHEAD
WILL SLOW ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z MONDAY SO THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE DIMINISHING.
EITHER WAY...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS
AROUND 18Z MONDAY AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY AND
00Z TUESDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR ALONG THE COAST AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO FOLLOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT A COLD UNSTABLE SHOWERY PATTERN UNDER
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN AND
SKIES CLEAR. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 17Z MONDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE TERMINAL AROUND 21Z MONDAY WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO FOLLOW. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
DECREASING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. EXPECT
A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND VERY EARLY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WESTERLY SWELL IS PUSHING INTO THE
WATERS...AND IS LARGER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH BUOY 89 NEARING 20
FT. EXPECT IT END UP A FOOT OR TWO LOWER CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT
EXPECT 16 TO 20 FT SEAS BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM TONIGHT FOR THE
INNER COASTAL WATERS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING AND RESULT
IN WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING QUICKLY LATE MONDAY
MORNING INTO GALE FORCE CRITERIA WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT. A
COASTAL JET MAY PUSH WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COAST FOR A PERIOD LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING.

ANOTHER FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS...ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER LARGE WESTERLY SWELL
APPROACHING 20 FT APPEARS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER SIMILAR STRENGTH STORM SYSTEM
APPEARS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS WELL. A QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN...POSSIBLY OFFSHORE FLOW...SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER SEAS AND
LESS WIND ISSUES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS EVENING FOR...
NORTH OREGON CASCADES AND CASCADES OF LANE COUNTY.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS EVENING FOR S WASH CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM MON FOR
  ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM MON FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM MON
  FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
  CONDITIONS THROUGH MON EVENING.
&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
642 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds with rain and mountain snow showers will decrease this
evening as cold front exits the Inland Northwest. The next weather
system will arrive Monday night with a good chance of low elevation
snow. Very strong winds are forecast for Tuesday and Tuesday
evening. Then a transition to cooler temperatures and snow
showers is anticipated for late in the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast is on track this evening with light rain and snow moving
into far eastern WA and north Idaho. Accumulating snow is limited
to elevations above about 3000 feet. The snow levels will continue
to drop this evening over north Idaho although HRRR is indicating
the back edge of the precip will move through quickly over the
next few hours. Appears that slick conditions are likely with
accumulations up to 1 to 2 inches for ID004 including eastern
Benewah and Latah Counties as well as Shoshone County.

Otherwise the wind advisory was allowed to expire with some local
gusts to 30 mph still occurring but no impacts as far as we can
tell.

Big story remains to be the light snow Monday evening and then a
very strong wind event Tuesday. Read more in the previous
dicussion attached below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front will continue to push across the region
this evening with a band of light precipitation. Expect mainly
rain at the TAF sites with snow levels above 4k ft, but cold air
advection will drop snow levels quickly behind the front to around
2500 ft. This may bring a rain/snow mix to the eastern TAF sites
by this evening along with a short period of MVFR cigs and mountains
obscurred. Gusty winds will be the main concern with southwest to
west and speeds 15g25-30kt. The strongest winds will be south of
KMWH-KPUW. The winds will taper off overnight as the showers end
and clouds increase. Light winds and VFR conditions are expected
by early Monday morning. High clouds will be on the increase after
18z Wed with light precipitation reaching the Cascades Wed
afternoon with local MVFR conds and mountains obscurred. /rfox


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds with rain and mountain snow showers will decrease this
evening as cold front exits the Inland Northwest. The next weather
system will arrive Monday night with a good chance of low elevation
snow. Very strong winds are forecast for Tuesday and Tuesday
evening. Then a transition to cooler temperatures and snow
showers is anticipated for late in the week.
Gusty winds with rain and mountain snow showers will decrease this
evening as cold front exits the Inland Northwest. The next weather
system will arrive Monday night with a good chance of low elevation
snow. Very strong winds are forecast for Tuesday and Tuesday
evening. Then a transition to cooler temperatures and snow
showers is anticipated for late in the week.

DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday: The Inland Northwest will be under the
influence of a cold front the subsequent upper level trough
overnight and high pressure building in for Monday. The front will
continue to track across eastern Washington and through north
Idaho this evening, bringing a band of precipitation of rain and
high mountain snow and packing with gusty westerly winds. The
precipation will remain fairly light - less than a tenth of an
inch for the valleys/low lands and a quarter an inch or so for the
mountains. Most areas while snow levels tumble quickly behind the
front with drier and colder snow. Snow levels will drop into the
valleys but the amount of additional moisture to generate snow
will be limited. So any appreciable snow accumulations will be
around a couple of inches. Gusty winds will prevail through the
day and taper off by early this evening. Expect winds of 20 to 30
mph with gusts to 40 mph with the prime areas being across the
Palouse and lower Columbia Basin. A Wind Advisory remains in
effect through the afternoon for these nuisance winds. Winds will
gradually taper off through the evening as showers fall apart and
clouds clear. The drying and cooling will lead to a chilly night
tonight with valley temperatures staying below freezing for
several hours late tonight, leading to a hard freeze, especially
in the sheltered areas. Would not rule out some patchy fog in the
northern rivers valleys by early Monday morning. High pressure
will be over the region for Monday morning with chilly but sunny
weather. This will rapidly deteriorate as a warm front lift across
Washington. Anticipate increasing clouds from the west and
southwest winds increasing. Temperatures will be slow to warm with
daytime highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. /rfox.

Monday night through Tuesday night...

..Valley snow Monday night followed by possible damaging winds on
Tuesday...

A dynamic forecast period beginning with valley snow followed by
the potential for high winds marks the two main focuses during
this forecast period. A warm front will bring widespread
precipitation Monday night with the leading edge of this moisture
plume being associated with another atmospheric river. The warm
front lifts out of the area by Tuesday morning resulting in much
milder but very windy conditions Tuesday. An upper level trough
from the Gulf of Alaska and an associated 150 kt upper jet drops
down into southern BC and northern WA and ID Tuesday afternoon. As
the jet drops towards the region a surface low rapidly intensifies
in the left exit region of the jet...going from 994mb off the
Central BC coast Tuesday morning to 975-985mb over southern
Alberta Tuesday afternoon. 850mb winds increase to 50-70 kts over
the region resulting in the potential for high winds. More details
to follow regarding the details...

*Weather/Precipitation type: Prior to the precip onset Monday
 evening...models have dew points at the surface in the low to mid
 20s. This will help keep the snow levels low as wet bulb cooling
 occurs. Model soundings suggest snow the most likely outcome
 initially except for lower elevations from Wenatchee to Moses
 Lake to Ritzville southward to the Oregon border where rain is
 likely. Warm advection increases quickly however overnight from
 the south with snow expected to change to rain for all valleys
 except near the Canadian border where snow may linger into early
 to mid Tuesday morning. Thus despite the light forecast
 accumulations...impacts are expected to be low but those
 traveling Monday night may encouter some winter driving
 conditions. Snow levels Tuesday rise to 6000-7000 feet with even
 the mountains changing to rain. Models show the potential for 2-3
 inches of rain near the crest on Tuesday as a moist atmospheric
 river is aimed at the area. Very strong zonal flow into the
 Cascades will lead to a significant rain shadow likely extending
 to the Idaho border by Tuesday afternoon. The cold front passes
 Tuesday night with lowering snow levels. Strong zonal flow with
 the front passage should keep precipitation confined mostly to
 the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle where light accumulations are
 possible behind the front as snow levels lower back down below
 pass levels.

*Wind: A high wind watch has been issued for much of the Inland NW
 on Tuesday. As the surface low over BC and Alberta deepens, winds
 will be increasing. Models currently show the strongest
 prefrontal southwest winds extending from the Upper Columbia
 Basin northeast into the Idaho Panhandle with 850mb winds peaking
 late Tuesday afternoon and evening at 55-70 kts. Precise values
 are still uncertain due to model differences with the depth of
 the low. With strong westerly flow its expected that precip will
 shut off for most of Central and Eastern Washington Tuesday
 afternoon. This should allow the lower levels to warm allowing
 for increased mixing potential. More uncertainty exists for the
 Idaho Panhandle and Cascades where more cloud cover and rain
 could limit mixing potential in the valleys. However the
 mountains will be exposed to the winds. In the Cascades the NAM
 and UW-WRF GFS show the potential for localized strong gusts
 Tuesday morning and afternoon with this area on the warm side of
 the jet with possible mountain waves creating these localized
 high wind gusts. After the cold front passes Tuesday
 evening...winds will increase on a more widespread basin through
 the Cascade gaps and western basin with the potential for high
 wind gusts mixing down. JW

Wednesday through Sunday: The region will be under dry and cool
northwest flow Wednesday as the upper-level jet sags into
Northern Oregon. Winds will be breezy early Wednesday morning but
look to weaken as the day progresses. Cooler continental air
filtering in from Canada will cool temperatures back into the 30s
and 40s much closer to our seasonal averages.

The jet and associated baroclinic region will get hung up across
northern Oregon through early Friday. The exact placement of this
west to east oriented region will have significant ramifications
on our weather as yet another rich plume of moisture accompanies
the next low pressure system coming onshore. This leads to
moderate confidence for a slow moving shield of light to moderate
precipitation. However, confidence remains low in regards to how
far north or south of the WA/OR border this sets up. The current
range stretches from around the Hwy 2 corridor in Washington to
I-84 corridor in northern Oregon. Snow levels will be just as
complex. The cool and dry antecedent air mass will allow snow down
toward 2000 feet at the start of the event Thursday but should
rise closer to 4000 feet when the deeper moisture arrives later in
the day. If the track is further south, snow levels may be lower
or vice versus. Needless to say, our confidence is increasing for
this precipitation event but carries lower confidence where it
will setup. A shortwave dropping in from the north will shove the
system to the south on Friday with drier northerly flow to the
Inland NW. This will bring another push of cooler continental air
but nothing out of the ordinary at this time.

The region remains in a northwest storm track well into the
weekend with the next slug of moisture arriving somewhere in the
Sunday-Tuesday time-frame. Some model runs manifest this into a
deep low pressure system while other give us a glancing blow.
Examining the bigger picture, models tend to agree on
amplification of the offshore ridge which is favorable for a cool
storm system into the Pac NW. Uncertainty centers on the location
of the ridge axis off the coast and how far west this cooler
system will dig toward the Coast. I am thinking a cool down is on
the horizon but exact timing is tough to pinpoint right now with
timing somewhere between late Sunday and Wednesday. Climate
Prediction Center outlooks are also showing a strong signal for
this cooling. /sb

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front will continue to push across the region
this evening with a band of light precipitation. Expect mainly
rain at the TAF sites with snow levels above 4k ft, but cold air
advection will drop snow levels quickly behind the front to around
2500 ft. This may bring a rain/snow mix to the eastern TAF sites
by this evening along with a short period of MVFR cigs and mountains
obscurred. Gusty winds will be the main concern with southwest to
west and speeds 15g25-30kt. The strongest winds will be south of
KMWH-KPUW. The winds will taper off overnight as the showers end
and clouds increase. Light winds and VFR conditions are expected
by early Monday morning. High clouds will be on the increase after
18z Wed with light precipitation reaching the Cascades Wed
afternoon with local MVFR conds and mountains obscurred. /rfox
00Z TAFS: A cold front will continue to push across the region
this evening with a band of light precipitation. Expect mainly
rain at the TAF sites with snow levels above 4k ft, but cold air
advection will drop snow levels quickly behind the front to around
2500 ft. This may bring a rain/snow mix to the eastern TAF sites
by this evening along with a short period of MVFR cigs and mountains
obscurred. Gusty winds will be the main concern with southwest to
west and speeds 15g25-30kt. The strongest winds will be south of
KMWH-KPUW. The winds will taper off overnight as the showers end
and clouds increase. Light winds and VFR conditions are expected
by early Monday morning. High clouds will be on the increase after
18z Wed with light precipitation reaching the Cascades Wed
afternoon with local MVFR conds and mountains obscurred. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  39  33  55  34  43 /  60   0 100  60  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  30  39  32  54  34  44 /  80  10 100  90  40  10
Pullman        29  38  33  54  36  45 /  60  10 100  70  50  10
Lewiston       35  44  36  59  39  51 /  50  10  60  70  50  10
Colville       29  41  33  56  29  43 /  70  10 100  70  50  10
Sandpoint      31  38  31  50  32  41 /  80  10 100 100  90  10
Kellogg        31  34  29  45  31  40 /  80  10 100 100 100  40
Moses Lake     26  45  39  64  36  51 /  10  10  60  10  10  10
Wenatchee      32  43  36  59  38  50 /  10  20  50  30  40  10
Omak           29  43  34  60  30  44 /  10  10  70  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez
     Perce Counties-Northern Panhandle.

WA...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     East Slopes Northern Cascades.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ 800 PM

 855 AM MST MON NOV 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LAST IN A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MUCH
COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE AREA...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING INTO THE 30S AND 40S TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...WITH A RETURN OF
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

DISCUSSION... COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF CONTINUED TO PUSH
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH THE
LOW CENTER MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND 12Z PLOT DATA. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED EAST OF THE
PHOENIX AREA AND WAS MOVING INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF ARIZONA
AS OF 8 AM THIS MORNING...AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BAND ARE NOW WELL EAST OF PHOENIX. SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LED TO SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN DESERTS...AND DVV MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING
LOW HAS ALREADY QUICKLY DIMINISHED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH LA PAZ COUNTY. AS THE FINAL VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN LOW AND MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AZ THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND COLD AIR ALOFT CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS...WE MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND THE LOCAL WRF MODELS.

FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS
MORE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...WITH SKIES FROM CENTRAL PHOENIX WESTWARD BECOMING SUNNY OR
MOSTLY SUNNY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE NEARLY 200M
HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE OCCURRED AND THE COLD AIR SPREADING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT THE HIGH TEMPERATURESS TODAY WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE GREATER PHOENIX AERA WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS STAY IN THE UPPER 50S OVER COOLER OUTLYING AREAS...AND ONLY
REACH INTO THE LOW 60S OVER THE WARMER CENTRAL LOCALES. WIND
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN DESERTS...FROM THE
COLORADO RIVER WESTWARD...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TODAY...ALTHOUGH NOT ALL OF THE DESERTS WILL REACH TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE PLANNED.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A DEEP PV ANOMALY WAS LOCATED NEAR LAS VEGAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
A 140KT JET STREAK AND COLD CORE ALOFT TRANSLATING INTO THE TROUGH
BASE THROUGH SERN CALIFORNIA/WRN ARIZONA. THE SFC FRONT HAD FINALLY
PROPAGATED INTO THE PHOENIX METRO WITH A COMBINATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND H9-H8 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALLOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS DEPICTED MINIMAL MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG...HOWEVER THE
STRONGER FORCING WAS FULLY UTILIZING ALL THIS INSTABILITY WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING
INCREASINGLY FOCUSED OVER SRN GILA COUNTY.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENING HOWEVER
HAS NOT COMPLETELY REALIZED ITS POTENTIAL AS A SECONDARY FRONT ALONG
THE I-15 CORRIDOR (COINCIDENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT) WAS FOCUSING THE STRONGER POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THIS SECONDARY FRONT WILL DESCEND
THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF ARIZONA LATER THIS
MORNING...AND VERTICAL MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM LLJ WINDS BEING
SPREAD THROUGH THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA (SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
BEING REPORTED AT KDAG...KBYS...AND KNXP EARLY THIS MORNING).
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY HEADLINES THOUGH AREAL AND TEMPORAL
EXTENT MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED.

THIS SECONDARY FRONT AND CAA ALOFT WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WESTERN THROUGH
CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A BRIEF PERIOD OF JUXTAPOSED MIDLEVEL SATURATION
AND COOLING ALOFT TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS...AND SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
HRRR ITERATIONS AND LOCAL WRF CORES SHOW A LOOSELY STRUCTURED LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...VERY AGGRESSIVE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR AND DEEPENING
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SEVERELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND
DURATION...SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD CLEARING WILL BE LIKELY FOR ALL BUT
SRN GILA COUNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS...THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
MOST NOTABLE FEATURE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS COLD ADVECTION IN THE H8-H7 LAYER ALREADY ENVELOPED THE CWA
THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE WILL UNLOAD THE
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS AND FAR LOWER THICKNESSES/FREEZING LEVELS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. IN MANY CASES...TEMPERATURES MAY HOVER STEADY OR
FALL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND EVEN MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 60S. CONCURRENT TO THE FALLING
FREEZING LEVELS...RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ERN MARICOPA/SRN GILA COUNTY. THE BULK OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION (1-3 INCHES) WILL OCCUR ABOVE 5000FT...THOUGH
EVEN A MIX/DUSTING WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO 4000FT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ABRUPTLY ENDING. EVEN THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT
ABATE TONIGHT OVER GILA COUNTY...PURE COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIAMI/GLOBE COMMUNITIES AND FREEZE
WARNING HEADLINES STILL LOOK GOOD.

THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TUESDAY
WITH H5 HEIGHTS CLIMBING SHARPLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA (GENERALLY A
570-576DM RANGE). DESPITE THIS WARMING ALOFT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOL WITH REDUCING MIXING DEPTHS SUCH THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWER TO REBOUND. THIS SITUATION SHOULD BE
QUICKLY REMEDIED BY WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES UNDER INCREASING RIDGING ALOFT AND FULL DAYTIME
INSOLATION.

VERY LITTLE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN BECOMES DOMINATED BY LOWER AMPLITUDE AND
LONGER WAVELENGTH FEATURES. SOME MEASURE OF STRONG FLAT
RIDGING/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC/SOUTHWEST CONUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS
INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG OR WEST OF THE CNTRL
CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS
STILL FAIRLY HIGH. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST H5 HEIGHTS EVEN STRONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST (AROUND 582DM)...AND SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS
HAVE STARTED SHOWING WARMER FORECAST OUTPUT. MADE SOME MINOR UPWARD
REVISIONS TO TEMPERATURES...AND MAY NEED TO FURTHER INCREASE THESE
FORECAST HIGHS A BIT CLOSER TO RECORDS LATE IN THE WEEK (RECORD
HIGHS FOR PHOENIX DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE UPPER 80S).

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

PRIMARY COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH THE PHOENIX AREA...
PROMOTING STRONG AM WESTERLY WINDS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS INTO THE 20KT
RANGE. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS...PERSISTING THE STRONG WEST WINDS AND ADDITIONAL GUSTS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS AROUND THE PHX AREA WILL RANGE
BETWEEN THE 3-6KFT AT TIMES AND IN RELATION TO NEARBY TERRAIN AND
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL
DECKS WILL GRADUALLY THIN AND DISSIPATE IN THE AFTN. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL POP-UP DURING THE DAY...WARRANTING VCSH MENTION
THROUGH MIDDAY. DRY AIR WILL RAPIDLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...CLEARING SKIES BY THE EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35KTS POSSIBLE AT TIME. STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VSBYS IN BLOWING DUST/SAND NEAR THE TERMINALS THAT MISSED
OUT ON ANY WETTING RAINS YESTERDAY. LINGERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SCT
TO OCCASIONALLY BKN WILL CLEAR EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. WINDS TO
MAINTAIN WEST-NORTHWEST HEADINGS BY THE EVENING...LOSING THEIR
GUSTINESS BUT MAINTAINING SPEEDS 10-12KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

AREA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE AFTER THE EARLY WEEK
POTENT STORM...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
SETTLING IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO STABILIZE AND
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY NORMAL READINGS...BACK INTO THE 70S BY
WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES BY
THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS
WHILE ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH HEADINGS VARIANTS OFF
OF NORTH AT TIMES. HUMIDITIES WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW THIRTIES DURING THE DAYTIME WITH CONTINUED GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
     AZZ024.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR AZZ020.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR CAZ031.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ030-032.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

 918 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 917 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

WV Imagery indicates a strong upper level trough of low pressure
shifting eastward across the Four Corners Region. Near the surface,
a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across extreme
eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

The greatest impacts weather-wise today will be convective chances
as early as mid afternoon in the far western sections of the
forecast area. A relative low cape and high shear environment will
be favorable for a developing line of storms as the convection
develops over extreme eastern Colorado and moves east into a richer
low level moisture environment. Several of the convective allowing
models including the WRF ARW/4km NAM support the HRRR in this
general solution, although the HRRR could be developing convection a
little too fast in the early afternoon. The main threats will likely
center on severe thunderstorms wind gusts given any momentum
transport in an already windy environment expected late this
afternoon.  Abundant insolation today and starting out relatively
mild in the low 50s/upper 40s will aid in a rapid warming into the
60s by this afternoon.

The next issue will be just how much of an impact winds and
deformation zone precipitation have of the area heading into
Tuesday. Between the ECMWF/GFS/NAM family of models, extremely large
variances have been seen in total snow output, although given the
pattern the lower NAM model QPF and snow totals seem most reasonable
at this point. The best frontogenetic forcing and colder air for
dendritic growth should be farther  north near NW KS, and drier
boundary layer air will need to be overcome in sw KS for anything
more than minor snow amounts to be considered. That being said,
strong gradient wind could create some travel impact even with a
couple of inches of snow in the extreme western counties.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

The rest of the forecast period looks relatively dry and seasonal as
far as temperatures go. As the upper low shifts off the east
Wednesday, another wave drops through the Northern Plains in it`s
heels. However the central High plains region appears to remain
under westerly zonal to slight northwesterly flow aloft until the
next baroclinic zone enters the region from the northwest next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

Area of IFR ceilings east of highway 183 this morning continues to
erode and/or lift in response to a deepening lee trough turning
winds enough to push slightly drier air into western KS.
Otherwise, attention then shifts toward late this afternoon to
evening as a strong upper wave plows into the Great Plains. This
will allow a line of thunderstorms to develop rapidly near the
Colorado border and then move quickly east into central KS by
evening. Given the expected wide swath of these storms, have
maintained reference of storms in the DDC, GCK, and HYS
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  40  45  30 /  30  60  60  40
GCK  68  38  40  30 /  50  30  70  40
EHA  67  37  37  32 /  50  30  70  30
LBL  69  38  41  33 /  50  20  60  30
HYS  68  43  46  31 /  30  60  60  50
P28  68  46  55  34 /  40  70  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...AJohnson




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

 554 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

The greatest impacts weather-wise today will be convective chances
as early as mid afternoon in the far western sections of the
forecast area. A relative low cape and high shear environment will
be favorable for a developing line of storms as the convection
develops over extreme eastern Colorado and moves east into a richer
low level moisture environment. Several of the convective allowing
models including the WRF ARW/4km NAM support the HRRR in this
general solution, although the HRRR could be developing convection a
little too fast in the early afternoon. The main threats will likely
center on severe thunderstorms wind gusts given any momentum
transport in an already windy environment expected late this
afternoon.  Abundant insolation today and starting out relatively
mild in the low 50s/upper 40s will aid in a rapid warming into the
60s by this afternoon.

The next issue will be just how much of an impact winds and
deformation zone precipitation have of the area heading into
Tuesday. Between the ECMWF/GFS/NAM family of models, extremely large
variances have been seen in total snow output, although given the
pattern the lower NAM model QPF and snow totals seem most reasonable
at this point. The best frontogenetic forcing and colder air for
dendritic growth should be farther  north near NW KS, and drier
boundary layer air will need to be overcome in sw KS for anything
more than minor snow amounts to be considered. That being said,
strong gradient wind could create some travel impact even with a
couple of inches of snow in the extreme western counties.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

The rest of the forecast period looks relatively dry and seasonal as
far as temperatures go. As the upper low shifts off the east
Wednesday, another wave drops through the Northern Plains in it`s
heels. However the central High plains region appears to remain
under westerly zonal to slight northwesterly flow aloft until the
next baroclinic zone enters the region from the northwest next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

Area of IFR ceilings east of highway 183 this morning continues to
erode and/or lift in response to a deepening lee trough turning
winds enough to push slightly drier air into western KS.
Otherwise, attention then shifts toward late this afternoon to
evening as a strong upper wave plows into the Great Plains. This
will allow a line of thunderstorms to develop rapidly near the
Colorado border and then move quickly east into central KS by
evening. Given the expected wide swath of these storms, have
maintained reference of storms in the DDC, GCK, and HYS
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  40  45  30 /  30  60  60  40
GCK  68  38  40  30 /  50  30  70  40
EHA  67  37  37  32 /  50  30  70  30
LBL  69  38  41  33 /  50  20  60  30
HYS  68  43  46  31 /  30  60  60  50
P28  68  46  55  34 /  40  70  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...AJohnson



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 717 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION
TRENDS. THIS LED TO SOME FINE TUNING OF THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
CURVES AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE LOW AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS
DESCENDED TO THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS. 7 AM KY MESONET OBSERVATIONS
FROM BLACK MTN IN HARLAN COUNTY AT 4031 FEET HAD A DEWPOINT OF -5F
WHILE THE DEWPOINT AT THE PIKE COUNTY MESONET IN THE FLATWOODS
AREA NEAR DORTON AT 2774 FT MSL WAS 14. AS MIXING
OCCURS...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE AREA AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN.

6Z GFS AND NAM AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO CONTINUE
SUPPORT AT LEAST SPRINKLES LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING FORM SW
TO NE AS MID LEVELS MOISTEN. THE 6Z GFS AND THE MOST RECENT HRRR
RUN HAS SOME VERY LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND
REGION AND THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH JUST THE SPRINKLE CHANCES AND MONITOR MODEL AND
UPSTREAM OBSERVATION TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE POP INCREASE LATE
TODAY OR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE
ATLANTIC BACK TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE GULF COAST REGION NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MS VALLEY. FURTHER WEST A LARGE UNPHASED TROUGH
ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE MS RIVER. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN KY OVER THE
UPSTATE SC/NE GA AREA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMMENCING. A SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AS IT NEARS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS CLOSED LOW SHOULD MOVE RATHER QUICKLY EAST
NORTHEAST REACHING THE PLAINS OF EASTERN CO/WESTERN NB BY DAWN ON
TUESDAY.

SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS THIS
OCCURS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE
SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY REACHING CENTRAL NB BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDING AND ALSO CENTERED OVER NB
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THAT POINT...THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARC NORTH AND THEN SOUTH TO A TRIPLE POINT OVER
SOUTHERN MO WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO FL AND A
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH AND NEARING THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT THAT
POINT.

AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE NEARS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE OCCURRING
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOISTENING UP OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SATURATING TO OCCUR DOWN TO NEAR 800 MB
OR POSSIBLY LOWER BRIEFLY THIS EVENING. THICKENING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS WILL RESULT TODAY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AT
THIS POINT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SPRINKLES APPEAR POSSIBLE STARTING LATE TODAY IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SPRINKLES SHOULD END BY THE 6Z TO 9Z PERIOD...OR PREDAWN HOURS ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH A WARMER START COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES MILDER
THAN SUNDAY ON AVERAGE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO MIN HUMIDITIES OF 25 PERCENT
OR LOWER ACROSS THAT REGION WITH 25 TO 35 PERCENT ANTICIPATED
ACROSS NEARLY ALL THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WE PLAN TO CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS LOW MIN RH IN THE HWO. THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED ENOUGH THAT EITHER
PRIOR TO THE MID CLOUDS ARRIVING OR AFTER THEY DEPART FOR EASTERN
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO MAKE A QUICK RUN TOWARD 40 OR THE UPPER 30S.

TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALTHOUGH
SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO EVEN MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY. CIRRUS SHOULD BE
RATHER EXTENSIVE AS WELL AND A FEW CU OR MID CLOUDS MAY ALSO PASS
BY FROM TIME TO TIME...SO SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO START THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHILE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO HAVE A
SURFACE LOW COINCIDING WITH IT...THEN A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE GULF. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY PHASES INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM...THE SURFACE LOW
EJECTS NORTH INTO CANADA INTO A STRONG 970 LOW. THE TRAILING FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STUCK QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
OVERALL IN TERMS OF POPS. IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMOUNTS GIVEN PWATS
REMAINING IN THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE AND STRONG JET STREAK AT
850MB...AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300MB JET JUST TO THE WEST
WILL YIELD PLENTY ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD 1 INCH AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GREATER AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 75 AND LESSER AS YOU MOVE EAST TOWARD PIKE COUNTY. THE
STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH MANY SPOTS SEEING AT
LEAST SOME 20 MPH GUSTS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CLOSED LOW PHASES AND WE END UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY OF THE STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL
MAKE FOR QUITE THE DIFFERENCES PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS.
RIGHT NOW GOING WITH GOOD RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN
850 TEMPS BELOW FREEZING...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND POSSIBILITY OF
HIGH POSITIONED OVER AREA BASED ON GFS. THOSE FACTORS WILL LEAD
TO DECOUPLING AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S VALLEYS OVER THE HIGHER
SUPERBLEND NUMBERS. AFTER THIS WE SEE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
OVERALL WITH MODELS BY THE LATE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF BUILDS A
STRONG 1028 SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION AND THE GFS BRINGS
SHORTWAVE THOUGH EAST THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND
SEEMS A BIT HIGH POP WISE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND VASTLY
DIFFERING FEATURES...SO SLACKED OFF AND WENT TOWARD LOWEST END
SLIGHT POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART. SOME CIRRUS
WILL CROSS THE AREA INITIALLY...BUT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
LATER TODAY AND CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT 19Z TO 6Z ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA TO INCLUDE SME...LOZ AND SYM. THIS...
HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING CIGS BELOW 6KFT OR VIS BELOW
6SM. CIGS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10KFT OR HIGHER AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

 535 AM PST MON NOV 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAINLY ACROSS MOHAVE, LINCOLN AND CLARK
COUNTIES FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WHICH WILL IMPACT
THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. NORTH BREEZES
WILL LINGER IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FOR TUESDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MODERATING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...THE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUED TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST EAST AND EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY UP THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL COLD POOL SHOWERS WERE DROPPING OUT OF LINCOLN COUNTY
OVER NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY AND MOVING TOWARD NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATED THESE TRENDS FAIRLY WELL. RECENT RADAR LOOPS
INDICATED PARTS OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND SPRING MOUNTAINS/SHEEP
RANGE MAY SEE A FEW MORE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE 8 AM BUT
CHANCES OF DIMINISHED FOR ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION. THE POP/WX
GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
THINGS HAVE MOISTENED UP CONSIDERABLY WHICH CREATES SOME ISSUES WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
HAVE MANAGED TO SNEAK UP TO JUST ABOVE 32 DEGREES. THUS INITIALLY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A COLD RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF CLARK,
MOHAVE AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ANY SHOT AT SNOW
AT THIS POINT WILL TAKE EITHER SOME DRYING WHICH WOULD LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND THEN IF WE SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WE COULD SEE
HAVE A SHOT A WET BULBING AND ACHIEVING SNOW OR THE MORE UNLIKELY
SCENARIO WHICH WOULD BE SOME SORT OF DYNAMIC COOLING ALTHOUGH GIVEN
THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WE ARE SEEING SEEMS A BIT
OF A STRETCH. AS A RESULT, I RAISED SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS MORNING
WHICH LESSENS GREATLY THE SHOT AT SNOW MUCH BELOW 3000-3500 FEET.
EVEN IN SOME OF THESE AREAS IT MAY BE IFFY, BUT IF ANY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION BURSTS OCCUR THERE WILL BE A SHOT AT IT. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING ENERGY BEHIND THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND
THAT HAS TO WORK ON THROUGH THAT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THESE
MAY HAVE BETTER BURSTING POTENTIAL WITH THEM TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE LEFT AS IS. FOR
LINCOLN COUNTY, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM THE HIGHWAY 93
CORRIDOR ON EAST FOR 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW AND IN MOHAVE COUNTY THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF I-40. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE GRAND CANYON PARASHANT NATIONAL MONUMENT WHICH
WILL BE OUR SO-CALLED LOLLIPOP ZONE OR SWEET SPOT WHERE 3-6 INCHES
COULD ACCUMULATE. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY
LATER THIS MORNING EXCEPT IN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER INTO MID-AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE HRRR, THE CURRENT POPS MAY
BE A BIT TOO DRAWN OUT ESPECIALLY WEST IF THE COLORADO RIVER AND
ACTIVITY MAY END EARLIER IN AREAS CLOSER TO LAS VEGAS.

THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT BY
LATER THIS MORNING AND A 90 KT+ JET AT 250 MB BECOMES ORIENTED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BELT
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE DIRECTLY OVER US. THESE WILL GET MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH WITH
A FEW AREAS OF 55-65 MPG GUSTS. THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD BE IN
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES WHICH TEND TO BLOW VERY WELL IN
THIS SET-UP AND IN THE MORONGO BASIN WHERE SOME FUNNELING TAKES
PLACE BETWEEN THE TERRAIN AND SOME ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO LIKELY OFF
THE SAN BERNARDINO RANGE. HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SPECIFIC AREAS WITH JUST ABOUT ALL OTHER AREAS UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY. WINDS WILL START TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LINGERING WINDS. AS A RESULT, I
CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE AS WINDS SHOULD
STIR UP THINGS ENOUGH TO HOLD UP TEMPS AND THUS AT THIS TIME NO
FREEZE HEADLINES LOOK NEEDED. THERE SHOULD BE SOME REVERSE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST OFF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS BUT THESE DO
NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO DRAG OUT THE WIND ADVISORIES FURTHER.

AFTER A COLD DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 12-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
TEMPS WILL MODERATE UP 5-8 DEGREES ON AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY. LINGERING
NORTH FLOW WILL STILL CREATE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR TUESDAY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, I
HELD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES OUT TO AVOID
CONFUSION. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A DRY DAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK UNDER A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB
SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY THEN A FEW MORE DEGREES EACH DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND MOJAVE DESERT
REGION BY FRIDAY.

THE OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH ANY SOLUTION DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
THE FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA SATURDAY THEN SLIDES IT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY ACT TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5 DEGREES. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS BECOME MORE APPARENT
BY MONDAY AS THE ECMWF DIGS A BROAD VERY COLD TROUGH INTO THE
NORTHWEST STATES AND WILL BE POISED TO CONTINUE DIGGING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN SOLUTION. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER
AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS COLD TROUGH...ESSENTIALLY KEEPING IT
OVER CANADA AND JUST BRUSHING THE NEARBY BORDER STATES. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS OVER THE WESTERN
STATES GOING INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
PASSING THROUGH THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY...WITH THE BAND OF ASSOCIATED
RAIN SHOWERS NOW OFF TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MORMON MESA CORRIDOR THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IN THE VALLEY. EXPECT CALMER
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE WIND DIRECTION GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS REMAIN LIKELY
THROUGH DAYBREAK. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 KTS
ALONG WITH 35-40 KT GUSTS UNDER IMPROVING CIGS. WINDS LOOK TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. MODERATE TO
SEVERE TURBULENCE DOWNSTREAM OF HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECT
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...PARTICULARLY AT KDAG AND KEED. EXPECT WINDS TO SHARPLY
DECREASE...AND CIGS TO DIMINISH WITH -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 15-25KTS SUSTAINED AND 25-35KT GUSTS. MODERATE TO
SEVERE TURBULENCE DOWNSTREAM OF HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE CIGS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. PATCHES
OF BLDU ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF DRY LAKE BEDS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR
AVIATION...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

 314 AM PST MON NOV 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEVADA. GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED. THERE
WILL BE NO SHORTAGE OF COLD AIR. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE INTO
THE 40S BY MID-WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON KLRX...THE PRECIP SHIELD
IS MOSTLY EAST OF ELKO...WHICH IS SECONDED BY THE LATEST IR IMAGE.
THE HRRR STILL HAS SOME FLURRIES FOR ELKO...BUT THE ACTIVITIY IS
DEFINITELY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA...TUESDAY WILL BE BRUTALLY COLD IN THE MORNING...BUT AS THE
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE LKN CWA...EXPECT UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 570 DAM. WEDNESDAY...WILL BE CHILLY IN THE MORNING AGAIN
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 40S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL DOMINATE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

LONG RANGE MODELS DO FAIRLY WELL GETTING ALONG THROUGH ABOUT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE. BY FRIDAY EVENING THERE
IS NO AGREEMENT. THE ONLY THING THAT GETS IMPLIED FOR THE WEEKEND IS
THAT...PERHAPS...SOME PRECIP MIGHT FALL IN NORTHERN NEVADA. HAVE
ADDED IN SOME HIGHER POPS TO SHOW THAT SOMETHING MIGHT HAPPEN...AND
TO COORDINATE WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICES. HAVE NO PERSONALLY
STRONG FEELINGS EITHER WAY ON THIS SITUATION. TIME WILL TELL.

BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING FORECAST AS
WAS WITH POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN AREAS...MOSTLY SNOW...AND STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL TRANSLATE INTO BREEZY SPOTS AT TIMES.

TEMPS REMAIN COOL IN COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KELY AND KTPH AND
CONTINUES ON OUT. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS BRINGING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. EXPECT REDUCED VISBY
DUE TO SNOW/FOG BUT ALSO FROM BLOWING SNOW AT KELY AND KTPH AT TIMES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIP WILL EXIT KWMC SOON AND THEN KEKO
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO
COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

97/98/98



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 946 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

GIVEN WEBCAM TRENDS THROUGH 1530 UTC...CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE FOR HETTINGER...GRANT AND MORTON
COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL 18 UTC GIVEN ASOS/AWOS AND NDDOT WEBCAM TRENDS
THROUGH 1330 UTC ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK. THE 06
UTC NAM NEST AND 12 UTC HRRR VISIBILITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
VISIBILITY IMPROVING BY 17-18 UTC. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE PUSHED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FOG/LOW STRATUS A BIT FURTHER WEST IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS
NOTED ON SATELLITE. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

A COOLING TREND BEGINS TODAY WITH STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG
HIGHLIGHTING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS. LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SPLITTING TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SFC-
700MB LOW MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY...THEN THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER WASHINGTON
STATE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THE RECENT PATTERN OF A SPLIT
FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH WEAK INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN BRANCH IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BY IN LARGE THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FLOW AS
WE END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND ADVANCE INTO THE LONG TERM.

THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
FOG/STRATUS LOOP. OVERCAST CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ARCH
WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAS OF FOG STILL ON TRACK
MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ANTICIPATING SOME DENSE AREAS
AS WELL. MINOT IS CURRENTLY AT 6SM WHILE GLEN ULLIN IS AT THREE
QUARTERS OF A MILE. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SHIFT NORTH BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...HOWEVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE MONDAY MORNING AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM JUST EAST OF BISMARCK THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES IN THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.

ON TUESDAY...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN
AREAS. REGION REMAINS NEAR THE CONVERGENCE OF SPLIT FLOW AS UPPER
LOW WORKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM
AND PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST EARLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...BEFORE
CONVERGING WITH SECONDARY LOW LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
QUICKLY ADVANCE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING STRONG
MIXING DEVELOPING WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 850
MB. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES PUSH THROUGH AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS SCENARIO...HAVE INCREASED WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ADEQUATE MIXING OF THE STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN
ON THE STRONG AND GUSTY SIDE AS 40-50 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY BRING AN OCCASIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW...THOUGH THE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 938 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS CONTINUING AT KMOT INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
ANOTHER STRATUS DECK ARRIVES THIS EVENING. KDIK AND KISN ARE JUST
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT FOG/STRATUS BANK THIS MORNING
AS OF 1530 UTC...HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE MVFR/IFR
STRATUS DECK THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING. KBIS IS BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT OF THE STRATUS...WITH STRATUS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AT KJMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017>019-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 741 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL 18 UTC GIVEN ASOS/AWOS AND NDDOT WEBCAM TRENDS
THROUGH 1330 UTC ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK. THE 06
UTC NAM NEST AND 12 UTC HRRR VISIBILITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
VISIBILITY IMPROVING BY 17-18 UTC. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE PUSHED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FOG/LOW STRATUS A BIT FURTHER WEST IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS
NOTED ON SATELLITE. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

A COOLING TREND BEGINS TODAY WITH STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG
HIGHLIGHTING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS. LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SPLITTING TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SFC-
700MB LOW MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY...THEN THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER WASHINGTON
STATE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THE RECENT PATTERN OF A SPLIT
FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH WEAK INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN BRANCH IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BY IN LARGE THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FLOW AS
WE END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND ADVANCE INTO THE LONG TERM.

THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
FOG/STRATUS LOOP. OVERCAST CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ARCH
WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAS OF FOG STILL ON TRACK
MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ANTICIPATING SOME DENSE AREAS
AS WELL. MINOT IS CURRENTLY AT 6SM WHILE GLEN ULLIN IS AT THREE
QUARTERS OF A MILE. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SHIFT NORTH BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...HOWEVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE MONDAY MORNING AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM JUST EAST OF BISMARCK THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES IN THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.

ON TUESDAY...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN
AREAS. REGION REMAINS NEAR THE CONVERGENCE OF SPLIT FLOW AS UPPER
LOW WORKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM
AND PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST EARLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...BEFORE
CONVERGING WITH SECONDARY LOW LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
QUICKLY ADVANCE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING STRONG
MIXING DEVELOPING WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 850
MB. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES PUSH THROUGH AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS SCENARIO...HAVE INCREASED WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ADEQUATE MIXING OF THE STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN
ON THE STRONG AND GUSTY SIDE AS 40-50 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY BRING AN OCCASIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW...THOUGH THE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

IFR CIGS AT KMOT/KBIS ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR
BETWEEN 16Z-18Z MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING BETWEEN 00Z-05Z. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 03Z-05Z TUESDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KDIK AND KISN THIS MORNING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FOG/STRATUS
BANK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017>019-033-034-041-042.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 635 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE PUSHED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FOG/LOW STRATUS A BIT FURTHER WEST IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS
NOTED ON SATELLITE. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

A COOLING TREND BEGINS TODAY WITH STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG
HIGHLIGHTING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS. LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SPLITTING TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SFC-
700MB LOW MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY...THEN THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER WASHINGTON
STATE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THE RECENT PATTERN OF A SPLIT
FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH WEAK INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN BRANCH IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BY IN LARGE THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FLOW AS
WE END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND ADVANCE INTO THE LONG TERM.

THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
FOG/STRATUS LOOP. OVERCAST CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ARCH
WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAS OF FOG STILL ON TRACK
MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ANTICIPATING SOME DENSE AREAS
AS WELL. MINOT IS CURRENTLY AT 6SM WHILE GLEN ULLIN IS AT THREE
QUARTERS OF A MILE. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SHIFT NORTH BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...HOWEVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE MONDAY MORNING AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM JUST EAST OF BISMARCK THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES IN THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.

ON TUESDAY...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN
AREAS. REGION REMAINS NEAR THE CONVERGENCE OF SPLIT FLOW AS UPPER
LOW WORKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM
AND PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST EARLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...BEFORE
CONVERGING WITH SECONDARY LOW LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
QUICKLY ADVANCE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING STRONG
MIXING DEVELOPING WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 850
MB. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES PUSH THROUGH AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS SCENARIO...HAVE INCREASED WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ADEQUATE MIXING OF THE STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN
ON THE STRONG AND GUSTY SIDE AS 40-50 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY BRING AN OCCASIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW...THOUGH THE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

IFR CIGS AT KMOT/KBIS ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR
BETWEEN 16Z-18Z MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING BETWEEN 00Z-05Z. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 03Z-05Z TUESDAY. KDIK AND KISN ARE BOTH ON THE FRINGES OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
MOVEMENT OF STRATUS TOWARD KISN...HAVE INTRODUCED IFR CIGS/MVFR
VSBYS FROM 13Z-18Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

 1005 AM MST MON NOV 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY
CONDITIONS WEST OF TUCSON. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR TODAY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...THEN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING FROM JUST
EAST OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA EWD/SWD ACROSS ERN SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE/
GRAHAM/GREENLEE COUNTIES. THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP OF SIGNIFICANCE HAS
ENDED WEST-TO-NORTHWEST OF TUCSON. PIMA COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE
REPORTED TWO INCHES OF SNOW ON MOUNT LEMMON WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...
AND AN ESTIMATED TWO INCHES OR SO OF SNOW HAD FALLEN ON MOUNT
GRAHAM. MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEY LOCALES HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN LESS THAN 0.20 INCH. SNOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME LIKELY RANGE FROM
5000-5500 FEET.

IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED CLEAER SKIES JUST WEST OF THIS
FORECAST AREA ACROSS SWRN ARIZONA INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CLOUDY SKIES ENCOMPASS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA...
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW TO
DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS
AND THE 16/12Z NAM/GFS...STILL APPEARS THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. PRECIP SHOULD END THIS AFTERNOON FROM
TUCSON WWD INTO WRN PIMA COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
7000 FEET SHOULD BE MINIMAL...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OR SO
FROM THE CATALINA MOUNTAINS NEWD INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN OCCUR FROM WEST-TO-EAST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. WITH REGARD TO THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORY...
BELIEVE THAT SPEEDS WILL REDUCE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY EXPIRE AT 3 PM MST.

REGARDING THE INHERITED FREEZE WATCH...THE 16/12Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE
FOR KTUS HAS TRENDED TWO DEGREES WARMER FOR THE MINIMUM TEMP FOR TUE
MORNING SINCE 15/12Z. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE MIN TEMP FOR KTUS OF 36
DEGRES IS NOW IDENTICAL TO THE 16/12Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. WILL EVALUATE SEVERAL
OTHER GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DETERMINATION WITH RESPECT TO
THIS PRODUCT. AT THIS TIME...AM LEANING TOWARD A CONVERSION TO A
FREEZE WARNING...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
LESS VERSUS THE INHERITED FREEZE WATCH.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/18Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA AND MOUNTAIN -SHSN WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EAST OF KTUS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHSN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
CLOUD DECKS INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6K-10K FT
MSL...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST-TO-EAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35
KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND WILL OCCUR EAST OF KTUS AND ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF KSAD/KALK/KDUG. SURFACE WIND THEN DIMINISH TO MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS AROUND 17/02Z - 17/04Z THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT...THEN DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR TODAY. EXPECT A WARMING TREND TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /333 AM MST/...TONIGHT...LINGERING VALLEY SHOWERS/
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES WHICH
SHOULD BE ENDING FOR THE MOST PART AROUND MIDNIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY IN THE 3-
7" RANGE OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF PIMA AND
PINAL COUNTIES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL EXTENT OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...THUS DECIDED TO NOT EXTEND CURRENT FREEZE WATCH OR
CONVERT TO A WARNING. WILL LET DAYSHIFT EVALUATE FURTHER.

TUESDAY...DRY COOL NW FLOW WITH GUSTY NW WINDS IN FAVORED NW-SE
ORIENTED VALLEYS LIKE THE SAFFORD VALLEY. SMALL REBOUND IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THRU
FRIDAY THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ507>509-511>514.

 FREEZE WATCH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AZZ502-504-506.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 333 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...

CURRENTLY...

700 MB CIRCULATION LIKELY OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT 2 PM AS PER
RADAR AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION ALONG WITH STRONGER STORMS NOTED
OVER THE PLAINS. 500 MB CIRCULATION WAS JUST SW OF THE 4 CORNERS AS
PER WATER VAPOR. NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
DIVERGENT REGION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO. A WIND SHIFT
LINE WAS NOTED ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS THE PUEBLO/EL PASO COUNTY
LINE...MOVING SOUTH.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP BY 7 TO 8 PM AS 700 MB WIND STEADILY INCREASE. HRRR BY
MIDNIGHT SHOWS 700 MB WINDS OF 70 KNTS OVER N EL PASO COUNTY. HEAVY
WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND LAST INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW IS LIKELY AND GUSTS TO 50
MPH ARE LIKELY. SNOW DRIFTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND TRAVEL WILL BE
DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DVD.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE 700 MB CIRCULATION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL LIKELY FAVOR ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. FOR THIS
REASON I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR EASTER LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY. TOTAL ACCUMS THIS REGION SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 INCHES.

LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO FALL ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE S MTNS...BUT WITH 700 MB WINDS HAVING A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT
(VS NORTHEASTERLY)...EXCESSIVELY HEAVY SNOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
OVERALL 6 TO 10 INCHES IS LIKELY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT MTN TOP.

ALONG THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY FROM FREMONT TO THE KS BORDER SHOULD
SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIMIT
ACCUMS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WINDS...HAVE INCLUDED MOST
OF THESE REGIONS IN A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. THE SNOW OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE E PLAINS SHOULD BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING
AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

STRONG WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
THE PLAINS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WIDESPREAD. STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ACROSS THE INTERIOR MTNS...AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST...FLOW WILL
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE SW MTNS...AND SNOW RATES SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS REGION.

TUESDAY...

STORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. MAIN CONCERN IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT E LAS ANIMAS
WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW BUT AREAS FROM LAMAR AND SPRINGFIELD I AM NOT SO
CONFIDENT AS STORM WILL BE LIFTING OUT AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE ALL
THAT COLD. HOWEVER...IF EC VERIFIES WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THIS
WILL PUT THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW. WILL
DISCUSS THIS CONCERN WITH THE EVENING SHIFT AND ALLOW THEM TO ADJUST
THE FCST AS NEEDED.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION SHOULD BE
LESSENING BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STILL BE
AN ISSUE AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. I
WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME SUN ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN OVER ALL OF THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE LIKELY ALL AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015

WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN. PRIMARILY LONGER TERM ISSUES INCLUDES TIMING OF
DEPARTING SNOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING FORECAST DISTRICT
...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.

RECENT LONGER TERM PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT VIGOROUS CLOSED UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVE INTO IOWA BY
NOON WEDNESDAY.

HAVE DEPICTED CONTINUED GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
INTO TUESDAY EVENING(PRIMARILY EASTERN SECTIONS) WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING OVER MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY
12Z WEDNESDAY.

THEN A RETURN TO BASICALLY TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES) SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT MONDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES RUNNING WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF
MID TO LATE NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND NEXT MONDAY...WHILE COOLEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED
SATURDAY. FINALLY...MOST AGGRESSIVE GRADIENT WINDS DURING THE
LONGER TERM ARE PROJECTED FROM TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015

EXTREME NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AT KCOS AND KPUB DURING
THE NEXT 24. PEAK WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 KNOTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS...BUT THE GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE COLORADO SPRINGS REGION WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH
VERY HIGH AMOUNTS N OF THE AIRPORT AND MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS S OF THE
AIRPORT. OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING ABOUT 5-6 INCHES AT KCOS...BUT
THIS IS OUR BEST SCIENTIFIC GUESS.

KPUB MAY ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP....ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OVER KPUB SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE ANY SNOWFALL AT KPUB.
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE AT KPUB THROUGH THE NEXT 24H.

GUSTY N WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT KALS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE AS STRONG. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KALS THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ089-093.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-061-
072-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ063-076-
079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ095-096.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-073-
075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ087.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST TUESDAY
FOR COZ094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ086.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
065-067.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ081-082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ088.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ084.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 1101 AM MST MON NOV 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MST MON NOV 16 2015

CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. MOVED UP BLIZZARD WARNING
FOR ZONE 41...DOUGLAS AND ERN ELBERT COUNTIES TO START AT 01Z/6
PM MST TODAY. ALSO ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH PARK
ZONE 37 BEGINNING AT 00Z/5 PM MST TODAY. SNOWFALL HAS BEGUN IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS. CWA STILL UNDER
THE SLY WARM SECTOR OF THE TROUGH. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A COLD FRONT RACING SOUTH ACRS NERN COLORADO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH THEN INTRODUCES GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
PLAINS. EXCEPTION TO THIS... SAME MODELS SHOW A SFC LOW SPINNING
UP ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE VICINITY OF NRN LINCOLN COUNTY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THAT LOW A SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS
EXISTING SOUTH ACRS THE COUNTY. DATA FROM HRRR AND WRF INDICATE
T-STORM FORMATION ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH ACRS LINCOLN COUNTY. WILL
ADD A CHANCE OF TSTMS TO THIS AREA WITH ZONE UPDATE SHORTLY.
LASTLY...MODELS SHOW A BAND OF MOD/HVY CONVECTION IN THE FROM OF
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX LIFTING NORTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON...MOVED UP BLIZZARD WARNING
FOR ZONE 41/DOUGLAS/ERN ELBERT COUNTIES. BUT STRONGEST WINDS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN PRECIP ON THE PLAINS GOES
OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH NELY/UPSLOPE FLOW KICKING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM MST MON NOV 16 2015

MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND STRONGER SYSTEM. PRETTY
GOOD CONSENSUS ON THESE TRENDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY HIGH IN THE HEAVY
SNOW BAND...SREF MEANS AND OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS RUNS ALL HAVE 8-18
INCHES ACROSS THE CITY OF DENVER WITH A 1-2 FOOT BAND FROM DOUGLAS
COUNTY EASTWARD TOWARD LIMON...AKRON...AND HOLYOKE...WITH VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SHADOWING AND LESS SNOW NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...THEN A
SHARP GRADIENT NORTHWARD ACROSS WELD COUNTY. HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN
THE MAX SNOWFALL BAND IN MANY OF THE RUNS. SREF SPREAD FOR THE
DENVER AREA...HIGHEST 25 PERCENT HAD AROUND 20 INCHES AT DIA AND
CENTENNIAL AND 12 IN BROOMFIELD...LOWEST 25 PERCENT STILL HAD 6
INCHES OVER THE CITY WITH JUST A COUPLE INCHES NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.
NORTH EDGE OF THE BAND HAS ALSO CREPT NORTHWARD...AND MODELS
INCREASINGLY WRAPPING THE HEAVY SNOW SOUTH ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY
DESPITE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS...GFS HAD 3 FEET IN LIMON AND 2
FEET IN KARVAL AREA FOR EXAMPLE. NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HUGE
AMOUNTS...THOUGH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SLOW A BIT MORE. MOVED OUR FORECAST ABOUT 2/3 OF THE
WAY TOWARD THE NEW MODEL AVERAGES...WHICH IS ENOUGH GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS. WILL GO TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IN THE WATCH AREA AND
ALSO INCLUDE SOUTHERN WELD COUNTY WHERE SOME AREAS WILL BE PRETTY
BAD. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND ADVISORIES IN THE SHADOWED AREA FROM BOULDER TO
NORTHERN WELD AND LARIMER COUNTIES AS WELL AS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY. ALSO SLOWED THE TIMING DOWN ABOUT 3 HOURS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.

CONCERNS AT THIS POINT ARE MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE WARNING AREA...AND HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS IN THE HEAVY
SNOW BAND. AGAIN...THE FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE ENOUGH FOR A SERIOUS
STORM...BUT MODEL RANGE STILL FAIRLY LARGE WITH HALF TO DOUBLE THE
AMOUNTS WE ARE THROWING OUT. WE ALSO WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTH PARK
FOR THE STRONG FORCING TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING
BUT IT MAY NEED AN ADVISORY OR WARNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM MST MON NOV 16 2015

THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS AT 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS...AGAIN...A TAD FURTHER
NORTH THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z MODEL RUNS. AT 00Z TUESDAY LATE
DAY...THE UPPER LOW IS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND THERE IS A DUE
NORTHERLY JET MAXIMUM OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
PRETTY STRONG AND IS NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND IS PRETTY STRONG WITH A JET MAXIMUM TRYING TO NOSE INTO
COLORADO FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS STILL SOME VERY
STRONG UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY OVER THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER TUESDAY EVENING. DOWNWARD MOTION IS PROGGED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ALL NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON TUESDAY. SPEEDS ARE
SIGNIFICANT OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS.  MORE DUE NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING IS PROGGED ALL OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS
SEEM TO GO ALONG NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. MOISTURE IS STILL DEEP
OVER THE EASTERN CWA ON TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME IN THE MOUNTAINS AS
WELL...BUT THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PLAINS HAVE DOWNSLOPE DRYING.
THERE IS SOME MORE MOISTURE AROUND...BUT MORE SHALLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRIES OUT FOR ALL THE CWA. WITH
THE SLOWER NATURE OF THE MODELS...THE QPF FIELDS SHOW MORE
MEASURABLE SNOW ON TUESDAY AND EVEN A BIT INTO TUESDAY EVENING FOR
THE FAR EAST AND HIGH MOUNTAINS. THERE IS MINOR MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MIDNIGHT. SO FOR
POPS...WILL UP THEM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST ON TUESDAY. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL STILL NEED SOME 10-40%S FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN BORDER. NO POPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS OR PLAINS
FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNEDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED
CHANCES FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHLIGHTS
FROM THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER LOOK GOOD AS THEY ARE EXTENDED INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL LEAVE THEM GOING OVER THE PLAINS UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FOR NOW. A BLIZZARD IS A GOOD BET FOR PLAINS.  FOR
TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE 6-12 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S
HIGHS. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS WILL WARM UP 1-3 C FORM TUESDAY`S
READINGS. FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS
SHOW WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WELL INTO FRIDAY...THEN IT
BECOMES ZONAL. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH COLORADO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF NEVER REALLY SHOWS THIS FEATURE.
ANYWAY...THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE...MOSTLY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW NORMALS FOR THE FOUR DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MST MON NOV 16 2015

DENVER AREA AIRPORT TERMINALS COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE METRO AREA AFTER 2 PM MST TODAY.
KAPA COULD THEN SEE RAIN QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW AROUND 5
PM MST OR 6 PM TODAY WITH A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
SWINGING UP FROM THE SOUTH. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE ALL SNOW BY MID-
EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS
15-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 30KTS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE METRO AREA AND TO AROUND 45KTS ON THE EAST
SIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR
COZ040-043>046-048>051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031-035.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ033-034-036.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ038-039-042.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ037.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR
COZ041.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ047.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BAKER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 257 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

The first short wave moving ne across central IL this afternoon is
combining with isentropic lift, 35-50 kt sw 850 mb jet and
precipitable water values of 1-1.25 inches to bring initial batch of
rain showers to central and southeast IL, especially from the IL
river southeast. Pockets of moderate rain showers were sw of
Springfield to near and east of St Louis but no thunder with this
1st batch of showers.

Looks like a lull in showers taking shape from sw to ne during the
evening as 1st short wave and its forcing/lift exits ne of IL. Then
the next and stronger short wave ejects ne into central IL later
tonight and ramps up the chances of showers back to categorical pops
between 3-7 am along with some moderate showers by daybreak.
Precipitable water values elevate from 1.25-1.50 inches during
overnight and will bring best chances of moderate rain showers, with
0.50-0.75 inches of rain sw CWA tonight, especially overnight.
Isolated thunderstorm chances to stay sw of CWA through 12Z/6 am
Tue. Will continue the flood watch sw CWA overnight into Tue night
though main heavy rain threat will be after tonight. Temperatures
currently in the upper 40s to near 50F and should be nearly steady
and could even rise a bit overnight to between 50-55F by daybreak
with increasing se winds of 15-25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

A strong storm system will continue to impact the area into
Wednesday. The track of the core of the system, to the west of
Illinois, will keep this entirely a rain event across central and
southeast Illinois.

Strong, deep, southerly flow will transport anomalously high
moisture levels into the area by early Tuesday. This should result
in at least two waves of steadier/heavier rainfall with this event.
The first would be Tuesday morning as an area of stronger isentropic
ascent & upper diffluence cross the area, while the second occurs
Tuesday night as strong jet forcing moves through. Will maintain
current Flood Watch across southwest half of the area, but feel the
flood threat is rather low overall given long duration of rainfall,
how dry it has been lately/very high flash flood guidance, and low
river stages. Aside from the rain, the other main concern with this
system is the strong winds it will bring with it tomorrow into
Wednesday. Forecast soundings suggest winds in the vicinity of 50
kts within a couple thousand feet of the ground for much of the
period of concern (tomorrow into Wednesday). However, there are a
couple things that may preclude these stronger winds from reaching
the ground, at least as far as necessitating a Wind Advisory. First,
the strong WAA aloft should preclude surface based mixing to a
degree, although stronger downpours may be able to transport some of
the stronger gusts down. Second, the system will be
occluding/weakening as it arrives locally. So, while it will be
quite windy in any event, will hold off on issuing a Wind Advisory
at this time.

In the wake of this major system, broad upper troffing will develop
across much of North America. This will swing temperatures around
from the above normal levels we`ve seen for quite some time to below
normal at least into early next week. While no system of consequence
appears likely to impact the area in the Thursday-Monday time frame,
the models are trying to capture subtle short waves in the fast
moving cyclonic flow that will be in place. Unfortunately, these
weaker waves are tough to pin-point, and there is a significant
model spread in the explicit timing/track of these waves. At this
point, it appears that one disturbance will arrive in the Friday
night-Saturday night time frame. Will carry Slight Chance PoPs to
cover the potential arrival period of this wave, but it does not
appear to be a significant weather producer in any event. However,
depending on when it arrives, it may be cold enough for the
associated precipitation to fall in the form of snow, although the
light nature of the precipitation, warm ground, and above freezing
daytime highs should not allow it to stick.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

VFR conditions currently will deteriorate during the afternoon as
ceilings of 5-10k ft at midday drop to 800-1500 feet and with
vsbys down to 4-6 miles in light rain lifting ne during the next
few hours. Upstream, Jacksonville down to 900 foot overcast ceiling
while Macomb down to 1200 feet ceiling. HRRR handling these low
ceilings fairly well and followed it for lowering ceilings during
the afternoon. IFR ceilings and mvfr vsbys expected tonight and
Tue morning with ceilings below 1k ft. Vsbys getting down to 1-2
miles with heavier rains Tue morning. Isolated thunderstorms to
mostly be sw of central IL airports next 24 hours, but could get
close to SPI after 14Z Tue. Breezy sse winds 12-16 kts and gusts
20-25 kts this afternoon to be se tonight and increase to 16-22
kts and gusts of 25-30 kts later tonight through Tue morning.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch from midnight CST tonight through late Tuesday night
for ILZ036-040>042-047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...07




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1159 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

Made a few adjustments to the forecast today to address the
increasing chances of rain showers from sw to ne during the
rest of the day. At 10 am the light rain showers have spread
as far ne as Galesburg to Decatur to Robinson while mid level
clouds blanket central/se IL with low clouds sw of Macomb and
Jacksonville. Relatively low dewpoints in the low to mid 30s over
ne half of CWA appears to be slowing down the arrival of light
rain showers. Dewpoints rise into the mid 40s from Macomb and
Jacksonville sw. Temperatures at 10 am range from 48-54F and not
much rise expected this afternoon in the low to mid 50s due to
lowering cloud ceilings and rain showers moving in. Breezy sse
winds of 10-17 mph and gusts of 18-25 mph expected today.

Will continue the Flood Watch sw half of CWA overnight through
Tuesday night with 3-3.5 inches of rain and updated ESF product
ne half of CWA with 2.5-3 inches of rain forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

A large area of mid level cloudiness has spread north into our area
early this morning ahead of a lead shortwave that is currently
across parts of central Kansas south thru the Texas Panhandle. Just
ahead of this feature was a band of showers stretching from central
Nebraska southeast through central Missouri into western Kentucky.
We expect this rain to shift northeast this morning but will have a
tough time pushing very far into our area as forecast soundings
continue to show a rather dry atmosphere in place in the low levels
thru most of this morning. The 2 A.M. surface map depicted only 30 and
40 degree dew points to our south, with the 50 and 60 degree dew points
confined to western Oklahoma into western Texas. However, with time,
the moisture will deepen in the lower layers across our forecast area
we should see the rain spread in from the southwest this morning affecting
west central through southeast Illinois first, with the east seeing the
showers this afternoon.

Rainfall amounts today are not expected to be that significant with most
areas seeing a quarter of an inch or less. With the extensive cloud cover
and precipitation today, temperatures will be quite a bit cooler than what
we saw yesterday with most areas in the middle 50s accompanied by a gusty
southerly breeze.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

Several items up for consideration in this part of the forecast.
These include the well-advertised heavy rain event for the next
couple days, the winds tomorrow, and potential for some wintry
precipitation late in the week.

1) Heavy rain:

Have introduced a Flood Watch beginning at midnight tonight and
running through 6 am Wednesday. The orientation is basically in
areas where around 3 inches or more of rain is expected, roughly
along and south of a Havana to Robinson line. The heavier rain will
be focused in a couple waves, one overnight tonight into Tuesday
morning, then the other Tuesday night. Precipitable water values
expected to climb to a November-extreme of 1.6 inches by Tuesday
morning, as a steady low level jet of 50+ knots (getting into the 75
knot range by evening) pumps plenty of moisture up from the Gulf of
Mexico. The longer duration of the rain should limit the traditional
rapid-developing flash flooding, but the soil should become
saturated fairly quickly and leaf debris will help cause some poor
drainage as well. Some light showers will linger into Wednesday
morning across mainly the eastern CWA, but not should appreciably
add to the flood potential.

2) Winds for Tuesday and Tuesday night:

Mid-latitude cyclone will be tightening up as the surface low tracks
into western kansas by Tuesday morning before lifting northeast and
occluding. Aforementioned low level jet should get some elements
mixed down to the surface despite the widespread clouds, and gusts
of 30-40 mph are likely Tuesday and Tuesday night over our area. A
Wind Advisory may need to be issued in the subsequent shifts, but
will hold off for now since we`re still over 24 hours away before
the higher winds develop. While winds will gradually decrease after
mid week, the slow departure of this system (as it gets caught up in
a deep upper trough dropping into the north central U.S.) should
result in breezy conditions persisting into Thursday.

3)  Wintry weather potential late week:

Still some uncertainty with the late week system, as the ECMWF has a
much broader, colder and deeper upper trough dominating the Midwest
into the weekend, while the GFS is milder and not as deep. The
colder solution features a fast moving wave which brings a streak of
precipitation more across the central CWA early Saturday, when the
ECMWF features forecast soundings below zero. The more moderate GFS
gradually brings a front north to south during the day, slowed by
the front being parallel to the upper flow, with precipitation
mostly in the form of rain. Have leaned more toward the ECMWF
solution and mentioned a rain/snow mix for areas north of I-70, with
the changeover south of there holding off until Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

VFR conditions currently will deteriorate during the afternoon as
ceilings of 5-10k ft at midday drop to 800-1500 feet and with
vsbys down to 4-6 miles in light rain lifting ne during the next
few hours. Upstream, Jacksonville down to 900 foot overcast ceiling
while Macomb down to 1200 feet ceiling. HRRR handling these low
ceilings fairly well and followed it for lowering ceilings during
the afternoon. IFR ceilings and mvfr vsbys expected tonight and
Tue morning with ceilings below 1k ft. Vsbys getting down to 1-2
miles with heavier rains Tue morning. Isolated thunderstorms to
mostly be sw of central IL airports next 24 hours, but could get
close to SPI after 14Z Tue. Breezy sse winds 12-16 kts and gusts
20-25 kts this afternoon to be se tonight and increase to 16-22
kts and gusts of 25-30 kts later tonight through Tue morning.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for
ILZ036-040>042-047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...07




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

 1117 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 917 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

WV Imagery indicates a strong upper level trough of low pressure
shifting eastward across the Four Corners Region. Near the surface,
a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across extreme
eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

The greatest impacts weather-wise today will be convective chances
as early as mid afternoon in the far western sections of the
forecast area. A relative low cape and high shear environment will
be favorable for a developing line of storms as the convection
develops over extreme eastern Colorado and moves east into a richer
low level moisture environment. Several of the convective allowing
models including the WRF ARW/4km NAM support the HRRR in this
general solution, although the HRRR could be developing convection a
little too fast in the early afternoon. The main threats will likely
center on severe thunderstorms wind gusts given any momentum
transport in an already windy environment expected late this
afternoon.  Abundant insolation today and starting out relatively
mild in the low 50s/upper 40s will aid in a rapid warming into the
60s by this afternoon.

The next issue will be just how much of an impact winds and
deformation zone precipitation have of the area heading into
Tuesday. Between the ECMWF/GFS/NAM family of models, extremely large
variances have been seen in total snow output, although given the
pattern the lower NAM model QPF and snow totals seem most reasonable
at this point. The best frontogenetic forcing and colder air for
dendritic growth should be farther  north near NW KS, and drier
boundary layer air will need to be overcome in sw KS for anything
more than minor snow amounts to be considered. That being said,
strong gradient wind could create some travel impact even with a
couple of inches of snow in the extreme western counties.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

The rest of the forecast period looks relatively dry and seasonal as
far as temperatures go. As the upper low shifts off the east
Wednesday, another wave drops through the Northern Plains in it`s
heels. However the central High plains region appears to remain
under westerly zonal to slight northwesterly flow aloft until the
next baroclinic zone enters the region from the northwest next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

Low level stratus will persist across central Kansas through
this evening resulting in potential periodic MVFR cigs to KHYS.
Meanwhile, thunderstorms will develop across the panhandles of
Texas and Oklahoma late this afternoon with storms spreading
northeast into portions of southwest and central Kansas into
this evening...potentially affecting all TAF sites. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected during the overnight hours. Gusty
south winds around 20 to 35kt will persist across western Kansas
through late this afternoon as a strong lee side trough of low
pressure remains anchored across extreme eastern Colorado. Winds
will then subside and become more variable this evening as the
surface trough develops into a low pressure center and begins to
edge eastward across western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  40  45  30 /  70  80  60  40
GCK  68  38  40  30 /  70  70  70  40
EHA  67  37  37  32 /  40  50  70  30
LBL  69  38  41  33 /  70  70  60  30
HYS  68  43  46  31 /  70  80  60  50
P28  68  46  55  34 /  60  80  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 212 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOW 60S OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA. CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED THE RISE IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT
EVEN THERE WE ARE SEEING A LATE DAY SURGE AS THEY ARE NOW
APPROACHING 60 DESPITE THE CLOUDS. OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
STILL LOOKING AT SOME SPRINKLES MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE
AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION
TRENDS. THIS LED TO SOME FINE TUNING OF THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
CURVES AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE LOW AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS
DESCENDED TO THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS. 7 AM KY MESONET OBSERVATIONS
FROM BLACK MTN IN HARLAN COUNTY AT 4031 FEET HAD A DEWPOINT OF -5F
WHILE THE DEWPOINT AT THE PIKE COUNTY MESONET IN THE FLATWOODS
AREA NEAR DORTON AT 2774 FT MSL WAS 14. AS MIXING
OCCURS...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE AREA AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN.

6Z GFS AND NAM AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO CONTINUE
SUPPORT AT LEAST SPRINKLES LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING FORM SW
TO NE AS MID LEVELS MOISTEN. THE 6Z GFS AND THE MOST RECENT HRRR
RUN HAS SOME VERY LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND
REGION AND THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH JUST THE SPRINKLE CHANCES AND MONITOR MODEL AND
UPSTREAM OBSERVATION TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE POP INCREASE LATE
TODAY OR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE
ATLANTIC BACK TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE GULF COAST REGION NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MS VALLEY. FURTHER WEST A LARGE UNPHASED TROUGH
ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE MS RIVER. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN KY OVER THE
UPSTATE SC/NE GA AREA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMMENCING. A SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AS IT NEARS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS CLOSED LOW SHOULD MOVE RATHER QUICKLY EAST
NORTHEAST REACHING THE PLAINS OF EASTERN CO/WESTERN NB BY DAWN ON
TUESDAY.

SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS THIS
OCCURS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE
SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY REACHING CENTRAL NB BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDING AND ALSO CENTERED OVER NB
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THAT POINT...THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARC NORTH AND THEN SOUTH TO A TRIPLE POINT OVER
SOUTHERN MO WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO FL AND A
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH AND NEARING THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT THAT
POINT.

AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE NEARS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE OCCURRING
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOISTENING UP OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SATURATING TO OCCUR DOWN TO NEAR 800 MB
OR POSSIBLY LOWER BRIEFLY THIS EVENING. THICKENING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS WILL RESULT TODAY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AT
THIS POINT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SPRINKLES APPEAR POSSIBLE STARTING LATE TODAY IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SPRINKLES SHOULD END BY THE 6Z TO 9Z PERIOD...OR PREDAWN HOURS ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH A WARMER START COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES MILDER
THAN SUNDAY ON AVERAGE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO MIN HUMIDITIES OF 25 PERCENT
OR LOWER ACROSS THAT REGION WITH 25 TO 35 PERCENT ANTICIPATED
ACROSS NEARLY ALL THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WE PLAN TO CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS LOW MIN RH IN THE HWO. THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED ENOUGH THAT EITHER
PRIOR TO THE MID CLOUDS ARRIVING OR AFTER THEY DEPART FOR EASTERN
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO MAKE A QUICK RUN TOWARD 40 OR THE UPPER 30S.

TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALTHOUGH
SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO EVEN MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY. CIRRUS SHOULD BE
RATHER EXTENSIVE AS WELL AND A FEW CU OR MID CLOUDS MAY ALSO PASS
BY FROM TIME TO TIME...SO SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO START THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHILE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO HAVE A
SURFACE LOW COINCIDING WITH IT...THEN A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE GULF. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY PHASES INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM...THE SURFACE LOW
EJECTS NORTH INTO CANADA INTO A STRONG 970 LOW. THE TRAILING FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STUCK QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
OVERALL IN TERMS OF POPS. IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMOUNTS GIVEN PWATS
REMAINING IN THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE AND STRONG JET STREAK AT
850MB...AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300MB JET JUST TO THE WEST
WILL YIELD PLENTY ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD 1 INCH AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GREATER AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 75 AND LESSER AS YOU MOVE EAST TOWARD PIKE COUNTY. THE
STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH MANY SPOTS SEEING AT
LEAST SOME 20 MPH GUSTS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CLOSED LOW PHASES AND WE END UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY OF THE STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL
MAKE FOR QUITE THE DIFFERENCES PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS.
RIGHT NOW GOING WITH GOOD RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN
850 TEMPS BELOW FREEZING...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND POSSIBILITY OF
HIGH POSITIONED OVER AREA BASED ON GFS. THOSE FACTORS WILL LEAD
TO DECOUPLING AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S VALLEYS OVER THE HIGHER
SUPERBLEND NUMBERS. AFTER THIS WE SEE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
OVERALL WITH MODELS BY THE LATE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF BUILDS A
STRONG 1028 SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION AND THE GFS BRINGS
SHORTWAVE THOUGH EAST THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND
SEEMS A BIT HIGH POP WISE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND VASTLY
DIFFERING FEATURES...SO SLACKED OFF AND WENT TOWARD LOWEST END
SLIGHT POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AND COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
346 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TO IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SPOTTIER SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS
BAND OF RAIN WHICH ARE MOVING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE U.P. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TRENDS
FOLLOWED BY MARINE ISSUES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER FAR WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA
DURING THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SPOTTY
OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONGER FORCING DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WEAKENS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY NOT
MAKE IT INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA THOUGH.
SOUTHEAST WINDS CIRCULATING AROUND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC WILL KEEP A FEED OF DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR IN THIS
PORTION OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WITH A BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND...LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT WILL
BOOST PWATS THROUGH THE DAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UPPER PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING IN
A WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME. THEN THE NAM/GFS BRING IN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
STRENGTHENS DURING THIS TIME...WHICH ARGUES FOR HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015

STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FORM KANSAS TOWARDS WISCONSIN AND
BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST
TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EXTENT TO WITH PHASING OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY. THIS ALSO EFFECT
HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES AND HOW SOON LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BEGINS.

A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS WILL BRING LOTS OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA WITH THE PROSPECT OF SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA SHOULD RECEIVE THE BEST RAINS WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DESPITE THE
RAIN.

COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND
SPEEDS QUICKLY TOWARDS JAMES BAY. IN FACT THE DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE AREA QUALIFIES AS EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS AND WILL PRODUCE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL PRODUCE STRONG WEST WINDS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 40 MPH LIKELY OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WITH 50 MPH WINDS OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS COMES MUCH COLDER AIR. 850MB TEMPERATURES
DROP TO -12C BY THURSDAY EVENING AND REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIND DIRECTION
AS IT WILL BE LARGELY WESTERLY...WHICH FAVORS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY THERE THURSDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE KEWEENAW WITH A FEW INCHES LIKELY OVER THE
COURSE OF A FEW DAYS.

THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING
MILDER AIR IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MVFR CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD BACK INTO WESTERN LOCATIONS INCLUDING IWD.  AS RAIN SPREADS
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS OVER IWD.  LTTLE IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED
AT 346 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SHORELINES EXPOSED TO WINDS FROM THESE DIRECTIONS WILL
SEE WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET DEVELOP...WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION...EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN WATERS WILL SEE NEAR GALE FORCE
GUSTS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS LOOK A LITTLE TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
GALES TO OCCUR HOWEVER.

THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD GALES ARE
LIKELY. NEAR STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SL/MPC
LONG TERM...RDM
AVIATION...MG
MARINE...MPC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 313 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

IMPACTS FROM LOW LEVEL STRATUS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS OF 20 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS PROPAGATED THROUGH THE US HIGHWAY
85 CORRIDOR...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE EVENING.
BREEZY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THE EVENING.
WHILE THE STRATUS DECK FROM THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS
THE AREA...A SECONDARY DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SOON ENTER
THE WEST...AND ALSO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. GIVEN A CONSENSUS OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES AND THE 17-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS...LOCATIONS WEST
OF US HIGHWAY 83 ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTING
LOWS IN THE 20S...WITH 30S ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN
TONIGHT ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS.

FOR TUESDAY...STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR
CENTRAL...WITH COOLER POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS HIGH WINDS AND POTENTIAL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A DEEP...CLOSED LOW WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND
ENTER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL PHASE WITH A
CLIPPER COMING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A RAPID TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
ENHANCEMENT OF THE WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 40S. THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE 12 UTC
MODEL SUITE OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM ALL INDICATE A VERY WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THEREFORE...A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE LOWS AFTER THEY PHASE...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY EXIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
AND DRY GRASSLANDS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED AFTER COORDINATING WITH
LOCAL FIRE MANAGERS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND 52.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS CONTINUING AT KMOT/KJMS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
ANOTHER STRATUS DECK ARRIVES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. KDIK/KBIS
HAVE CLEARED...HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE MVFR/IFR
STRATUS DECK THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM MONTANA THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AT KISN CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1221 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ON TIME. REMAINING
FORECAST BLENDED TO A CONSENSUS OF THE 12 THROUGH 17 UTC HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS WHICH HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STRATUS
CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...AND THE SECOND DECK BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL ENTER THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

GIVEN WEBCAM TRENDS THROUGH 1530 UTC...CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE FOR HETTINGER...GRANT AND MORTON
COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL 18 UTC GIVEN ASOS/AWOS AND NDDOT WEBCAM TRENDS
THROUGH 1330 UTC ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK. THE 06
UTC NAM NEST AND 12 UTC HRRR VISIBILITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
VISIBILITY IMPROVING BY 17-18 UTC. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE PUSHED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FOG/LOW STRATUS A BIT FURTHER WEST IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS
NOTED ON SATELLITE. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

A COOLING TREND BEGINS TODAY WITH STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG
HIGHLIGHTING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS. LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SPLITTING TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SFC-
700MB LOW MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY...THEN THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER WASHINGTON
STATE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THE RECENT PATTERN OF A SPLIT
FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH WEAK INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN BRANCH IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BY IN LARGE THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FLOW AS
WE END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND ADVANCE INTO THE LONG TERM.

THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
FOG/STRATUS LOOP. OVERCAST CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ARCH
WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAS OF FOG STILL ON TRACK
MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ANTICIPATING SOME DENSE AREAS
AS WELL. MINOT IS CURRENTLY AT 6SM WHILE GLEN ULLIN IS AT THREE
QUARTERS OF A MILE. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SHIFT NORTH BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...HOWEVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE MONDAY MORNING AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM JUST EAST OF BISMARCK THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES IN THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.

ON TUESDAY...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN
AREAS. REGION REMAINS NEAR THE CONVERGENCE OF SPLIT FLOW AS UPPER
LOW WORKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM
AND PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST EARLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...BEFORE
CONVERGING WITH SECONDARY LOW LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
QUICKLY ADVANCE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING STRONG
MIXING DEVELOPING WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 850
MB. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES PUSH THROUGH AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS SCENARIO...HAVE INCREASED WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ADEQUATE MIXING OF THE STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN
ON THE STRONG AND GUSTY SIDE AS 40-50 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY BRING AN OCCASIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW...THOUGH THE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS CONTINUING AT KMOT INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
ANOTHER STRATUS DECK ARRIVES THIS EVENING. KDIK/KBIS/KISN HAVE
CLEARED...HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS
DECK THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING FROM MONTANA. STRATUS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KJMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

 106 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THIN...BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE GOING UP FROM ECNTL NM TO THE WRN
OKLA PANHANDLE PRETTY WELL IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS HRRR RUNS. DEW
POINTS FROM MID-40S UPWARDS ACROSS ALL THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA
SUGGESTS SEVERE POTENTIAL ALL THE WAY WEST TO THE NM STATE LINE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO THINK BEST SVR CHANCE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS
FROM NOW AND FURTHER EAST TOWARD TULIA...PLAINVIEW...AND POINTS
EAST. SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FROM MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

WILL UPDATE FCST TO ADD WATCH MENTION AS WELL ADJUST TEMPS...AS
THEY HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA
WHERE STRATUS HAS GIVEN WAY TO SUNSHINE.

QUESTION STILL REMAIN WHETHER THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MORPH
INTO THE MAIN SHOW OR IF A SECONDARY ROUND WILL DEVELOP EARLY
EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED. THAT MAY ALSO END UP
DEPENDENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. 18Z HRRR NOW TRENDING TOWARD THIS LATTER SCHOOL OF
THOUGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/

UPDATE...
FCST LOOKING GOOD WITH ELEMENTS SUCH AS TEMP AND DEW POINT
TRACKING WELL SO FAR THIS MORNING. FOCUS ATTM IS ON POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AFTER ANALYSIS AND DIVING
INTO THE MODELS...HAVE GENERALLY BOUGHT INTO THE HRRR FOR
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. CAP LOOKS TO BE WEAKEST LATER THIS AFTN TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK ALSO COINCIDING WITH THE AREA
OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH BRN SHEAR 50-100 M2/S2. WITH THE
STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FCST
AREA UNTIL BTWN 00Z AND 03Z...THINK BEST CHANCE FOR INITIAL
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE IN THIS AREA OF WEAKER CAP AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION. DISCRETE CELLS SHOULD RACE NEWD. FUEL AND
SHEAR COMBINATION REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS
SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL...WHILE IF SOME LOCAL BACKING OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS CAN OCCUR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

ONCE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SFC PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVE OVER THE
REGION...LIKELY JUST AFTER 00Z...SHOULD SEE A MORE LINEAR OR
QUASI-LINEAR MULTICELLUR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE INITIATE AND DEVELOP
FAVORING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND...IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING.

WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTN POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
THINKING. MAY ALSO NEED TO TWEAK WINDS AND SKY GRID.

AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTN TO SHIFT TOWARD WEST THIS EVENING AS A
STRONG CYCLONE DEVELOPS ON THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS AND A SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET OFF ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF TS BTWN 21Z AND
03Z WHICH WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND NORTHEAST. INTIATION
WILL BE IN A ZONE EITHER SIDE OF KPVW AND KLBB...AND GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS AREA WILL KEEP TS MENTION OUT OF BOTH OF THOSE
TAFS. KCDS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE THIS CONVECTION AND HAVE KEPT
MENTION IN THAT TAF FOR THIS EVENING. FINALLY...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY AT KCDS POSSIBLY LIFTING BRIEFLY LATE AFTN
WHILE KPVW AND KLBB SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 19Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DO
SO UNTIL AT LEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT KLBB/KPVW. KCDS
MAY HOLD ON TO THESE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH BEING ENTRENCHED
IN A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED NEAR 15-20 KNOTS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS WELL. IN ADDITION...KCDS STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SEEING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL THIS
EVENING...AROUND THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME. KLBB AND KPVW WILL ALSO
SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND MID AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY MUCH LESS IN EITHER TERMINAL BEING DIRECTLY IMPACTED.
WILL MONITOR ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE GRAND CANYON WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE HEADWAY TODAY BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS.
ADDITIONALLY...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87
CORRIDOR.

A SURFACE LOW WILL FURTHER DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS RESULTING IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
PEAKING NEAR 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
REACH AND POSSIBLY EXCEED 30 MPH ACROSS PARMER...CASTRO...AND BAILEY
COUNTIES...THEREFORE WARRANTING A WIND ADVISORY VALID FROM NOON
THROUGH 5 PM. DESPITE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...THESE DOWNSLOPE BREEZES
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH OF A H85 THERMAL MAX WILL PUSH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTHWEST AND LOW-MID 70S
ELSEWHERE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DRYLINE SHARPENS ALONG THE AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH...LOCATED ROUGHLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87
CORRIDOR. DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL DRASTICALLY INCREASE BY MID
AFTERNOON AS STEADY HEIGHT FALLS AND PRESENCE OF THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 130 KNOT UPPER JET ACCOMPANY PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. 0-6 KM
SHEAR INCREASING TO 55-65 KNOTS AND LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL THUS
ENSUE...PROMOTING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MID
LEVEL COOLING AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE-BASED
CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION EARLY ON. OVERWHELMING SHEAR AND
LINEAR FORCING VIA AN APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL INEVITABLY CONGEAL ANY DISCRETE ACTIVITY INTO
A LINEAR STRUCTURE...WHICH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
LIKELY EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE/ROLLING PLAINS BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A TRANSITION TO WIND
TAKES PLACE THIS EVENING.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF EVEN COOLER AIR BEHIND AN APPROACHING
CANADIAN COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE ORDER OF 15-
25 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S ON THE
CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 40S EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT COME DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...
BY TUESDAY MORNING...ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED
ACROSS SW KS/OK PANHANDLE AND EJECTING ENE WHILST FILLING AS IT
DEPARTS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES SHOULD
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE NEXT LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE SWRN PART OF THE COUNTRY.

PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER HAVING BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTED ALL
NIGHT. DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. GIVEN HEURISTIC INSIGHT...LIKELY
SOONER THAN LATER AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE FRONT
ENTERING THE CWFA AOA 12-13Z. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST PERHAPS PEAKING AROUND MID-DAY BEFORE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAW GUIDANCE...AS TYPICAL IN
THESE SITUATIONS...IS UNDERPLAYING THE ISOTACHS AND WILL TREND
CLOSER TO AND THE HIGHER END OF MOS WHICH IS NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FCST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
VIRGA-LIKE SOUNDINGS. WHILE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF WRAP AROUND
PRECIP PROSPECTS...THERE IS CERTAINLY VALUE...IN THIS SETUP...TO
SUGGEST THAT SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE WEATHER WILL BE
PLEASANT AND QUIET WITH ANOTHER FRONT LIKELY ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY THEN A STRONGER EVENT FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS LATTER FRONT TOO SHOWS PROMISE OF BEING A FAIR BIT
BREEZY THOUGH THE MEAN WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE A BIT MORE NNERLY.
GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MJO...THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE
THE LAST HURRAH FOR THE COOLER AIR DUMPS FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ021-022-027.

&&

$$

07/99




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

 1141 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.UPDATE...
FCST LOOKING GOOD WITH ELEMENTS SUCH AS TEMP AND DEW POINT
TRACKING WELL SO FAR THIS MORNING. FOCUS ATTM IS ON POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AFTER ANALYSIS AND DIVING
INTO THE MODELS...HAVE GENERALLY BOUGHT INTO THE HRRR FOR
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. CAP LOOKS TO BE WEAKEST LATER THIS AFTN TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK ALSO COINCIDING WITH THE AREA
OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH BRN SHEAR 50-100 M2/S2. WITH THE
STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FCST
AREA UNTIL BTWN 00Z AND 03Z...THINK BEST CHANCE FOR INITIAL
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE IN THIS AREA OF WEAKER CAP AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION. DISCRETE CELLS SHOULD RACE NEWD. FUEL AND
SHEAR COMBINATION REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS
SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL...WHILE IF SOME LOCAL BACKING OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS CAN OCCUR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

ONCE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SFC PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVE OVER THE
REGION...LIKELY JUST AFTER 00Z...SHOULD SEE A MORE LINEAR OR
QUASI-LINEAR MULTICELLUR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE INITIATE AND DEVELOP
FAVORING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND...IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING.

WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTN POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
THINKING. MAY ALSO NEED TO TWEAK WINDS AND SKY GRID.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTN TO SHIFT TOWARD WEST THIS EVENING AS A
STRONG CYCLONE DEVELOPS ON THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS AND A SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET OFF ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF TS BTWN 21Z AND
03Z WHICH WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND NORTHEAST. INTIATION
WILL BE IN A ZONE EITHER SIDE OF KPVW AND KLBB...AND GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS AREA WILL KEEP TS MENTION OUT OF BOTH OF THOSE
TAFS. KCDS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE THIS CONVECTION AND HAVE KEPT
MENTION IN THAT TAF FOR THIS EVENING. FINALLY...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY AT KCDS POSSIBLY LIFTING BRIEFLY LATE AFTN
WHILE KPVW AND KLBB SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DO
SO UNTIL AT LEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT KLBB/KPVW. KCDS
MAY HOLD ON TO THESE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH BEING ENTRENCHED
IN A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED NEAR 15-20 KNOTS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS WELL. IN ADDITION...KCDS STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SEEING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL THIS
EVENING...AROUND THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME. KLBB AND KPVW WILL ALSO
SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND MID AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY MUCH LESS IN EITHER TERMINAL BEING DIRECTLY IMPACTED.
WILL MONITOR ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE GRAND CANYON WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE HEADWAY TODAY BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS.
ADDITIONALLY...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87
CORRIDOR.

A SURFACE LOW WILL FURTHER DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS RESULTING IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
PEAKING NEAR 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
REACH AND POSSIBLY EXCEED 30 MPH ACROSS PARMER...CASTRO...AND BAILEY
COUNTIES...THEREFORE WARRANTING A WIND ADVISORY VALID FROM NOON
THROUGH 5 PM. DESPITE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...THESE DOWNSLOPE BREEZES
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH OF A H85 THERMAL MAX WILL PUSH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTHWEST AND LOW-MID 70S
ELSEWHERE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DRYLINE SHARPENS ALONG THE AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH...LOCATED ROUGHLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87
CORRIDOR. DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL DRASTICALLY INCREASE BY MID
AFTERNOON AS STEADY HEIGHT FALLS AND PRESENCE OF THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 130 KNOT UPPER JET ACCOMPANY PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. 0-6 KM
SHEAR INCREASING TO 55-65 KNOTS AND LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL THUS
ENSUE...PROMOTING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MID
LEVEL COOLING AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE-BASED
CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION EARLY ON. OVERWHELMING SHEAR AND
LINEAR FORCING VIA AN APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL INEVITABLY CONGEAL ANY DISCRETE ACTIVITY INTO
A LINEAR STRUCTURE...WHICH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
LIKELY EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE/ROLLING PLAINS BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A TRANSITION TO WIND
TAKES PLACE THIS EVENING.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF EVEN COOLER AIR BEHIND AN APPROACHING
CANADIAN COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE ORDER OF 15-
25 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S ON THE
CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 40S EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT COME DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...
BY TUESDAY MORNING...ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED
ACROSS SW KS/OK PANHANDLE AND EJECTING ENE WHILST FILLING AS IT
DEPARTS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES SHOULD
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE NEXT LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE SWRN PART OF THE COUNTRY.

PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER HAVING BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTED ALL
NIGHT. DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. GIVEN HEURISTIC INSIGHT...LIKELY
SOONER THAN LATER AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE FRONT
ENTERING THE CWFA AOA 12-13Z. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST PERHAPS PEAKING AROUND MID-DAY BEFORE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAW GUIDANCE...AS TYPICAL IN
THESE SITUATIONS...IS UNDERPLAYING THE ISOTACHS AND WILL TREND
CLOSER TO AND THE HIGHER END OF MOS WHICH IS NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FCST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
VIRGA-LIKE SOUNDINGS. WHILE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF WRAP AROUND
PRECIP PROSPECTS...THERE IS CERTAINLY VALUE...IN THIS SETUP...TO
SUGGEST THAT SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE WEATHER WILL BE
PLEASANT AND QUIET WITH ANOTHER FRONT LIKELY ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY THEN A STRONGER EVENT FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS LATTER FRONT TOO SHOWS PROMISE OF BEING A FAIR BIT
BREEZY THOUGH THE MEAN WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE A BIT MORE NNERLY.
GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MJO...THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE
THE LAST HURRAH FOR THE COOLER AIR DUMPS FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ021-022-027.

&&

$$

07/99/