Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/15/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1232 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS TEMPERATURES
GET COLDER...A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND
MILDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR TERM FORECAST
AS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUES DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND LATEST GUIDANCE STILL KEEPS
MAGNITUDES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREV DISC...987MB SURFACE WAS LOW SPINNING OVER LOWER QUEBEC. RATHER
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WIND
GUSTS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 25-35KTS TO AROUND 50KTS ACROSS
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. AS THIS TREND IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY. WE WILL KEEP GUSTS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UP TO A COUPLE OF
REPORTS. WE WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. THE
NEXT CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS WERE
IMPACTING THE TUG HILL PLATEAU EXTENDING INTO THE ADIRONDACKS.
ANOTHER BAND WAS ATTEMPTING TO INFILTRATE FURTHER INLAND FROM LAKE
ERIE. PER THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH A FASTER TRACK OF THE LOWER
QUEBEC LOW AND ANOTHER PV ANOMALY TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
TO BACK A LITTLE THIS MORNING AND LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING WAVE WILL
ASSIST WITH FURTHER COLD ADVECTION AS H850 TEMPS DROP EVEN FURTHER
BY 1-3C. AS SEEN IN THE HRRR REFLECTIVITIES...THE LAKE ERIE BAND
MAY GET MORE OF A BOOST WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND BRING
SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION LATER THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...WE WILL
INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING ALONG THE I 90 CORRIDOR. THEN AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE FOR MORE SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
MIX WITH SLEET/GRAUPEL IF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS ARE DEEP ENOUGH.
THIS COULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE THIS EVENING AS THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT AND TRACKING OF THE UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
ISALLOBARIC COUPLET MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH THOSE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE QG FORCING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL FURTHER
WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS A RA/SN MIX WITH SOME SLEET/GRAUPEL. MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED INTO THE ADIRONDACKS WERE UP TO
A COUPLE OF INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE BANDS SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY TO 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TONIGHT LOWS DIP BACK
THROUGH THE 20S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO THE LOW-MID 30S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30F ACROSS THE
TERRAIN WITH 30S AND 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. TONIGHT THOSE
VALUES DIP FURTHER WITH TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO AROUND
30 FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SPLIT IN HALF WITH THE FIRST HALF RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH BRISK CONDITIONS AND RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN AND WEST OF ALBANY...THEN THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SO THE TREND WILL BE INCREASING BREAKS OF THE CLOUDS AND
SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS. MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR AN INCREASING
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTH PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AS WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM INCREASES. THIS COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF CLOUD COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I90...AS WE WILL PLACE PTCLOUDY CONDITIONS INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MAINLY
20S FOR THE REGION. THEN A SLOW REBOUND INTO THE TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE 0C.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE QUIET WEATHER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED CLOSE TO THE REGION...AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND STRENGTHEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE CUTOFF
LOW THAT WILL DEEPEN AND LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US.
AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE TREND TO BEING ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SKY COVER WILL BEGIN PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT MORE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE WEEK.
LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS...WITH
HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S. TOWARDS
MIDWEEK...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
EVENTUALLY...THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE US WILL WEAKEN
AND LIFT OF TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE
STORM/S TRAILING COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS STILL AREN/T CLEAR IN THE
EXACT TIMING OF WHETHER IT WILL OCCUR THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. FOR
NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS BEGINNING WITH WED NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO JUST
A FEW HOUR PERIOD WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME ON
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
18Z SATURDAY.
A BLUSTERY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSAGES...WILL KEEP BKN/OVC CUMULUS AND
STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE VFR RANGE.
GENERALLY BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING OVER THE REGION WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT
12 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT KALB
AND KPSF. TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY...BUT THE MAXIMUM
GUSTS WILL DECREASE TO 16 TO 22 KTS. ON SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AS MIXING INCREASES. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AT SPEEDS OF 12 TO 16 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
26 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DESPITE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 25-45 MPH.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL QPF IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE HSA...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN
DACKS...AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH MAY OCCUR. MUCH OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL
BE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES INTO THE ADIRONDACKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IRL/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
952 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS TEMPERATURES
GET COLDER...A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND
MILDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR TERM FORECAST
AS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUES DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND LATEST GUIDANCE STILL KEEPS
MAGNITUDES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREV DISC...987MB SURFACE WAS LOW SPINNING OVER LOWER QUEBEC. RATHER
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WIND
GUSTS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 25-35KTS TO AROUND 50KTS ACROSS
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. AS THIS TREND IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY. WE WILL KEEP GUSTS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UP TO A COUPLE OF
REPORTS. WE WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. THE
NEXT CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS WERE
IMPACTING THE TUG HILL PLATEAU EXTENDING INTO THE ADIRONDACKS.
ANOTHER BAND WAS ATTEMPTING TO INFILTRATE FURTHER INLAND FROM LAKE
ERIE. PER THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH A FASTER TRACK OF THE LOWER
QUEBEC LOW AND ANOTHER PV ANOMALY TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
TO BACK A LITTLE THIS MORNING AND LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING WAVE WILL
ASSIST WITH FURTHER COLD ADVECTION AS H850 TEMPS DROP EVEN FURTHER
BY 1-3C. AS SEEN IN THE HRRR REFLECTIVITIES...THE LAKE ERIE BAND
MAY GET MORE OF A BOOST WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND BRING
SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION LATER THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...WE WILL
INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING ALONG THE I 90 CORRIDOR. THEN AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE FOR MORE SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
MIX WITH SLEET/GRAUPEL IF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS ARE DEEP ENOUGH.
THIS COULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE THIS EVENING AS THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT AND TRACKING OF THE UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
ISALLOBARIC COUPLET MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH THOSE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE QG FORCING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL FURTHER
WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS A RA/SN MIX WITH SOME SLEET/GRAUPEL. MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED INTO THE ADIRONDACKS WERE UP TO
A COUPLE OF INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE BANDS SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY TO 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TONIGHT LOWS DIP BACK
THROUGH THE 20S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO THE LOW-MID 30S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30F ACROSS THE
TERRAIN WITH 30S AND 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. TONIGHT THOSE
VALUES DIP FURTHER WITH TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO AROUND
30 FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SPLIT IN HALF WITH THE FIRST HALF RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH BRISK CONDITIONS AND RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN AND WEST OF ALBANY...THEN THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SO THE TREND WILL BE INCREASING BREAKS OF THE CLOUDS AND
SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS. MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR AN INCREASING
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTH PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AS WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM INCREASES. THIS COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF CLOUD COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I90...AS WE WILL PLACE PTCLOUDY CONDITIONS INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MAINLY
20S FOR THE REGION. THEN A SLOW REBOUND INTO THE TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE 0C.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE QUIET WEATHER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED CLOSE TO THE REGION...AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND STRENGTHEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE CUTOFF
LOW THAT WILL DEEPEN AND LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US.
AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE TREND TO BEING ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SKY COVER WILL BEGIN PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT MORE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE WEEK.
LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS...WITH
HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S. TOWARDS
MIDWEEK...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
EVENTUALLY...THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE US WILL WEAKEN
AND LIFT OF TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE
STORM/S TRAILING COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS STILL AREN/T CLEAR IN THE
EXACT TIMING OF WHETHER IT WILL OCCUR THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. FOR
NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS BEGINNING WITH WED NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO JUST
A FEW HOUR PERIOD WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME ON
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z SATURDAY.
BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME
ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS...WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT THROUGH THE DAY. THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS VFR.
SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY TAF SITES. STILL...WILL INCLUDE A VCSH FOR KGFL IN CASE A
SHOWER GETS CLOSE /MAINLY FOR THIS MORNING/ BUT ANY IMPACT DUE TO
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED...DUE TO LIGHT INTENSITY OF PRECIP AND
BRIEF NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...WILL NOT INCLUDE A
VCSH...AS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND/OR FAR ENOUGH
AWAY TO HAVE ANY IMPACT.
SOME OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY FINALLY BREAK TO CLEAR OUT BY LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT BKN MID OR
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THESE
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED WIND IN PLACE AND DRY LOW
LEVELS...WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FOR TONIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF GOOD DAYTIME MIXING AND A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESP DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10-20 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS POSSIBLE...ESP FOR
KALB...WHERE AIR WILL BE FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DESPITE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 25-45 MPH.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL QPF IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE HSA...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN
DACKS...AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH MAY OCCUR. MUCH OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL
BE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES INTO THE ADIRONDACKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IRL/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
823 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
.UPDATE...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS WILL NOT MOVE
MUCH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONIGHT WITH POPS
INCREASING AS YOU HEAD SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS
FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO AT LEAST 20 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015/
AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY AT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES. THE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OFF AND ON TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES AND ON SUNDAY OVER KAPF TAF SITE. SO HAVE KEPT THE VCSH IN
THE FORECAST FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT DRY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT FOR KAPF TAF SITE. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT WHEN A
SHOWER PASSES OVER THE TAF SITE WHERE IT CAN DROP DOWN INTO THE
MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AND MOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE DRIVING THE SFC LOW WILL WEAKEN SOME BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND
BE WEST OF THE HUDSON BAY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY, MAINLY WITH TIMING. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER
WITH THE FRONT, PUTTING IT THROUGH TLH BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ECMWF TRAILS BY ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE BOTH BRING THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BEFORE STALLING IT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT, SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN MCO AND THE LAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA,
PUTTING SOUTH FLORIDA BACK UNDER AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CURRENTLY FORECASTING THE WIND TO BE SOMEWHAT
WEAKER THAN THIS WEEKEND.
FOR TONIGHT, THE HRRR IS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN SOME, DRIVING THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE SHOWERS TO AN END THIS EVENING. THE WIND WILL BE
BREEZY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
AVIATION...
VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE...BUT OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS /ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/ WILL PERSIST
FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOR NOW HANDLED
WITH VCSH /NEAR TERM TEMPO GROUPS/. BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. NE WIND 10-15 KT WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS ANTICIPATED.
MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ALL BUT STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST TOMORROW. THE WIND WILL BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS, WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KTS. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED GUSTS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO
BUILD, ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM, WHERE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FT TOMORROW. THE STRONG WIND WILL ALSO CAUSE
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 82 76 83 / 20 40 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 81 75 83 / 40 50 50 60
MIAMI 72 82 75 84 / 50 60 50 60
NAPLES 71 86 70 88 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
629 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY AT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES. THE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OFF AND ON TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES AND ON SUNDAY OVER KAPF TAF SITE. SO HAVE KEPT THE VCSH IN
THE FORECAST FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT DRY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT FOR KAPF TAF SITE. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT WHEN A
SHOWER PASSES OVER THE TAF SITE WHERE IT CAN DROP DOWN INTO THE
MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AND MOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE DRIVING THE SFC LOW WILL WEAKEN SOME BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND
BE WEST OF THE HUDSON BAY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY, MAINLY WITH TIMING. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER
WITH THE FRONT, PUTTING IT THROUGH TLH BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ECMWF TRAILS BY ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE BOTH BRING THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BEFORE STALLING IT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT, SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN MCO AND THE LAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA,
PUTTING SOUTH FLORIDA BACK UNDER AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CURRENTLY FORECASTING THE WIND TO BE SOMEWHAT
WEAKER THAN THIS WEEKEND.
FOR TONIGHT, THE HRRR IS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN SOME, DRIVING THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE SHOWERS TO AN END THIS EVENING. THE WIND WILL BE
BREEZY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
AVIATION...
VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE...BUT OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS /ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/ WILL PERSIST
FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOR NOW HANDLED
WITH VCSH /NEAR TERM TEMPO GROUPS/. BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. NE WIND 10-15 KT WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS ANTICIPATED.
MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ALL BUT STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST TOMORROW. THE WIND WILL BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS, WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KTS. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED GUSTS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO
BUILD, ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM, WHERE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FT TOMORROW. THE STRONG WIND WILL ALSO CAUSE
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 82 76 83 / 40 40 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 81 75 83 / 50 50 50 60
MIAMI 72 82 75 84 / 60 60 50 60
NAPLES 71 86 70 88 / 20 20 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
458 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT FLOW
ARRIVING/CONVERGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVES OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH IMPRESSIVE JET ENERGY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTS BEFORE RIDGING UP THROUGH
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS FLOW THEN DIPS INTO LONGWAVE TROUGHING
THAT COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW (VERY EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY) IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/TN VALLEY. THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UNDER
AN EXPANSIVE BUT WEAK REGION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE BAHAMAS...AND EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CAN BE SEEN IN THE 13/00Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE WITH A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 700MB. THE
COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY ABOVE THIS INVERSION (AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED)...AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT SAT OVER THE PENINSULA FOR
THURSDAY IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN GA. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS (INCLUDING A
NOTICEABLE THERMAL/MOISTURE RIDGE JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY) AND
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS...THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF CROSS CITY...AND THEN EXTENDING OUT INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH HEALTHY IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN TERMS
OF FGEN...IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND HENCE WILL MAKE ITS
PASSAGE THROUGH MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHOUT ANY CHANCE OF
RAIN. BETTER RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 700MB PER MOST GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES SHOULD PROVIDE THE
ARRIVING FRONTAL FOCUS A BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SUPPORT A FEW WDLY
SCT SHOWERS LATER TODAY. MORE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
TODAY...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MARCH SOUTHWARD TODAY...PASSING
THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN SLOWING UP FURTHER
AS IT APPROACHES OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND FORT MYERS. FOR
MUCH OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH OUR REGION...THERE WILL SIMPLY
NOT BE ENOUGH AVAILABLE COLUMN MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUR ANY
RAIN...DESPITE DECENT LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FOCUS. THEREFORE...THE
FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS. CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS
SHOW A SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH LATER TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH EFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW WDLY SCT SHOWERS TO GET
GOING. WDLY SCT IS THE IMPORTANT WORD. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT JUST A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS...NOT A WASHOUT OF AN AFTERNOON BY ANY MEANS.
HAVE INCLUDED A 20-30% POP FOR CHARLOTTE/LEE...AND SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DESPITE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT PROVIDES
EXCELLENT DIURNAL MIXING CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 70S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FURTHER SOUTH.
TONIGHT...
SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION ON NORTHEAST
FLOW. WILL CERTAINLY FEEL COOLER FOR MANY SPOTS THAN WHAT WE ARE
USED TO SO FAR THIS FALL...BUT OVERALL WILL NOT BE UNSEASONABLE.
A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE FAR NORTH (LEVY COUNTY) MAY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S BY DAWN SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN
RANGING FURTHER SOUTH TO AROUND 60 FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND
MID/UPPER 60S DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS VICINITY. ANY EARLY EVENING
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND FORT MYERS LEAVING THE
OVERNIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
SATURDAY...
A PLEASANT FALL DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. IT WILL TAKE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TO GET OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN TO WHERE
THEY SHOULD BE FOR MID NOVEMBER...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR
FORECAST HIGHS. THE I4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD SHOULD HOLD IN THE
70S...ALTHOUGH PINELLAS/HILLSBOROUGH/POLK COUNTIES ARE LIKELY TO
BE IN THE UPPER 70S. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE TEMPS NEAR 80. WILL CALL IT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND TO FILTER THE SUN. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
HIGH CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES COULD END UP A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS. A PLEASANT
DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A NEAR ZERO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT RIGHT INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
COUNTRY BY THE END OF TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
FLORIDA. THE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST
COAST TO END THE WEEKEND WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MID-
WEEK...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST AND
THEREFORE BRINGING A RETURN OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL NOTED
WITHIN THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE GFS AS FAR AS BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOWARD OUR AREA SO FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHES OF MVFR FOG STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH 13Z...ESPECIALLY FOR KLAL. AFTER 13-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY SHIFTING WIND TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY THIS EVENING FOR A
WHILE FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS SUCH AS KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE
NORTH. THIS FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND INCREASE BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST WATERS. THEREAFTER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
WITH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK THROUGH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY. A SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF
VISIT TO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN DURING SUNDAY AND
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BOTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
REACH 35% AROUND LEVY COUNTY...BUT LOW ERC VALUES WILL PREVENT
ANY POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. DISPERSION INDICES WILL
BE HIGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
FOG POTENTIAL... PATCHY FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. AFTER THE PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN AGAIN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 83 61 78 62 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 86 68 81 67 / 30 10 10 10
GIF 84 60 77 61 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 83 64 79 65 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 82 54 76 55 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 83 63 78 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
240 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
.UPDATE...
720 PM CST
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW CENTERED NORTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY RAP ANALYSIS AND 00Z DVN RAOB...AS WELL
AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DROPPING 5-8 DEGREES IN DEW POINTS. THIS
MINI-SURGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A CORRIDOR OF
BRIEF 40-45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA...HAVING JUST PAST HERE IN
ROMEOVILLE. OUTSIDE OF THIS TEMPORARY SPIKE THOUGH...WIND SPEEDS
IN GENERAL WILL SLOWLY EASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH HANG IN THE SAME
PLACE TONIGHT...UNDULATING A LITTLE SOUTH/NORTH...BUT ALL IN ALL
FROM ROCKFORD THROUGH CHICAGO AND VALPARAISO NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BASICALLY JUST DROP ON ADVECTION...EASING INTO
THE MID 30S BY LATE TONIGHT.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA. MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...INCLUDING JET
INDUCED DIV...DPVA...AND WAA WILL MOVE OUT AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA BUT ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE COMBINATION OF
THE CLEARING SKIES AND CAA THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S...PERHAPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN SOME
SPOTS.
TOMORROW...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
ONE LAST PUSH OF ENERGY FROM THE VERY DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AS IT FINALLY DEPARTS THE REGION. OTHER THAN THE SHORTWAVE IN THE
MORNING...WE AGAIN LACK MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME REMNANT MOISTURE LEFT TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA WHICH WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY 00Z SAT THE MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION AND THE SKIES WILL CLEAR.
BSH
&&
.LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET THROUGH MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FROM NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION...TRANSLATES THROUGH THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP WITH RADIATIVE COOLING...LEADING
TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S SATURDAY MORNING. A DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BUILD IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD BECOME OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO EJECT A DIVERGENT FLOW REGIME AT THE 250
MB LEVEL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND RIDE THE DIVERGENT FLOW NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS...STARTING MONDAY
MORNING. THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE CHICAGO LAND AREA...LEADING TO MORE
LIKELY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE BROAD MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE REGION. PUT IN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BUILD DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS APPEAR TO
DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT AT THIS TIME AS THE
ECMWF MODEL IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH MOST UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES REACHING NEAR 200 J/KG.
HOWEVER... THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE BOTH MUCH LESS THAN
THAT...WITH VALUES NEAR 50 J/KG. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...KEPT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WITH
850 MB WIND VELOCITIES OF OVER 60 KTS...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS.
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WILL REDUCE TO JUST CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.
27
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY WINDS TO 35KT THRU EARLY AFTERNOON FROM 280-300 DEGREE
DIRECTION.
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AROUND DAYBREAK
OR SHORTLY BEFORE THROUGH MIDDAY.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS WISCONSIN
SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND MAY APPROACH FAR NORTHERN IL AROUND 9Z THIS
MORNING. CIGS HAVE MAINLY HELD AROUND 4KFT AGL AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT POCKET OF LOWER CLOUDS APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND MAY PUSH CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 2500-3000FT AGL AFT 9Z
THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS HAVE CONTINUED EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS HAS BEGUN TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE HIGHEST
GUSTS TO RANGE BETWEEN 28-35KT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
LATER TODAY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT NEARLY SCOURING ALL CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS TIMING AND DURATION.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...SHRA LIKELY/CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
231 AM CST
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TODAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GALES BETWEEN 40-45KT. HAVE
OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND BRING DOWN THE STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE...CURRENT GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WE MAY
SEE A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS BETWEEN 46-50KT LATER THIS MORNING.
BUT THE FREQUENCY WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED...BUT GALES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY
SLIDING INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH THE GRADIENT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
CLOSER TO SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER GALES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FALLING TO LESS THAN 30KT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST THEN FURTHER DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTLY AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RETURNS SUNDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WITH THE LONGER FETCH
EXPECTED TO SETUP.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3
PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 9 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1212 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
.UPDATE...
720 PM CST
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW CENTERED NORTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY RAP ANALYSIS AND 00Z DVN RAOB...AS WELL
AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DROPPING 5-8 DEGREES IN DEW POINTS. THIS
MINI-SURGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A CORRIDOR OF
BRIEF 40-45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA...HAVING JUST PAST HERE IN
ROMEOVILLE. OUTSIDE OF THIS TEMPORARY SPIKE THOUGH...WIND SPEEDS
IN GENERAL WILL SLOWLY EASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH HANG IN THE SAME
PLACE TONIGHT...UNDULATING A LITTLE SOUTH/NORTH...BUT ALL IN ALL
FROM ROCKFORD THROUGH CHICAGO AND VALPARAISO NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BASICALLY JUST DROP ON ADVECTION...EASING INTO
THE MID 30S BY LATE TONIGHT.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA. MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...INCLUDING JET
INDUCED DIV...DPVA...AND WAA WILL MOVE OUT AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA BUT ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE COMBINATION OF
THE CLEARING SKIES AND CAA THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S...PERHAPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN SOME
SPOTS.
TOMORROW...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
ONE LAST PUSH OF ENERGY FROM THE VERY DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AS IT FINALLY DEPARTS THE REGION. OTHER THAN THE SHORTWAVE IN THE
MORNING...WE AGAIN LACK MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME REMNANT MOISTURE LEFT TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA WHICH WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY 00Z SAT THE MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION AND THE SKIES WILL CLEAR.
BSH
&&
.LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET THROUGH MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FROM NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION...TRANSLATES THROUGH THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP WITH RADIATIVE COOLING...LEADING
TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S SATURDAY MORNING. A DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BUILD IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD BECOME OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO EJECT A DIVERGENT FLOW REGIME AT THE 250
MB LEVEL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND RIDE THE DIVERGENT FLOW NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS...STARTING MONDAY
MORNING. THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE CHICAGO LAND AREA...LEADING TO MORE
LIKELY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE BROAD MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE REGION. PUT IN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BUILD DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS APPEAR TO
DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT AT THIS TIME AS THE
ECMWF MODEL IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH MOST UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES REACHING NEAR 200 J/KG.
HOWEVER... THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE BOTH MUCH LESS THAN
THAT...WITH VALUES NEAR 50 J/KG. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...KEPT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WITH
850 MB WIND VELOCITIES OF OVER 60 KTS...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS.
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WILL REDUCE TO JUST CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.
27
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY WINDS TO 35KT THRU EARLY AFTERNOON FROM 280-300 DEGREE
DIRECTION.
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AROUND DAYBREAK
OR SHORTLY BEFORE THROUGH MIDDAY.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS WISCONSIN
SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND MAY APPROACH FAR NORTHERN IL AROUND 9Z THIS
MORNING. CIGS HAVE MAINLY HELD AROUND 4KFT AGL AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT POCKET OF LOWER CLOUDS APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND MAY PUSH CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 2500-3000FT AGL AFT 9Z
THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS HAVE CONTINUED EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS HAS BEGUN TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE HIGHEST
GUSTS TO RANGE BETWEEN 28-35KT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
LATER TODAY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT NEARLY SCOURING ALL CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS TIMING AND DURATION.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...SHRA LIKELY/CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE STORM WARNING IN PLACE UNTIL 15Z FRI. WE
WILL LIKELY NOT MEET CRITERIA OVERNIGHT...BUT DO HAVE CONCERN THAT
WE WILL BRIEFLY PUSH BACK UP TO STORM WARNING LEVELS ON FRIDAY
MORNING AS A STOUT SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GALE WARNING CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET ACROSS THE LAKE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AROUND SUNRISE...THE RAIN WILL SWITCH TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND PUSH
SOUTH COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN/IF THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN...BUT
BY 12Z...ALL BUT THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING.
BSH
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...STORM WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3
PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
524 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
...Updated Aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
Dry conditions will persist through late Sunday afternoon even as
short range models indicate an upper level shortwave lifting
northeast across the Four Corners Region into the Colorado Rockies
tonight, and further northeast into western Nebraska Sunday. A
weak flow aloft and virtually no instability will keep precip out
of western Kansas during the entirety of the period. Warmer low
temperatures are likely tonight as a prevailing southerly flow
continues to draw slightly warmer air northward into the area.
Look for lows down into the 40s(F) across central Kansas tonight
with a few 30s(F) possible toward west central Kansas. The air
mass across western Kansas will warm slightly Sunday allowing
highs to reach well into the 60s(F) across southwest and much of
central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
Precip chances pick up early in the week as medium range models
indicate a strong upper level trough of low pressure transitioning
eastward across the Four Corners Region Monday setting up an
increasingly more difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western
High Plains. Meanwhile, a prevailing low level southerly flow will
continue to draw moisture northward into central and portions of
western Kansas ahead of a deepening surface low across eastern
Colorado and extreme western Kansas. As low/mid level instability
increases, the flow aloft will intensify as a strong upper level jet
begins to lift northeast into much of Kansas with a left exit region
setting up across central and portions of southwest Kansas. As a
result, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible late
Monday afternoon and evening along and ahead of a sharpening dryline
attendant to the strengthening surface low moving slowly east across
western Kansas. The best chance for precip will be across central
and south central Kansas.
Rain, potentially with a switchover to snow, will be possible
Tuesday in a post-frontal band of H7 frontogenesis as the surface
low pushes further east across Kansas. It is much to early to
determine any snowfall amounts this far out due to lingering
uncertainty to the exact track of the storm system along with
fairly warm ground temperatures. Drier conditions are then
expected to take hold through the end of the week as a westerly
flow aloft develops behind the departing upper level trough.
Well above normal temperatures are likely Monday as a prevailing low
level southerly flow continues to enhance warm air advection into
western Kansas raising H85 temperatures into the mid teens(C). Highs
are expected to climb into the mid to upper 60s(F) with a few lower
70s(F) not out of the question. A cold front pushes through Tuesday
morning allowing much colder air to filter southward into western
Kansas. Highs are only expected to reach up into the 40s(F) with a
few 50s(F) possible in south central Kansas where the frontal
passage is projected to be later in the day. More seasonal
temperatures are forecast the remainder of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Sunday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
A trough of low pressure at the surface will remain nearly
stationary across eastern Colorado overnight as an upper level
disturbance approaches the central high plains from the west
southwest. The gusty south winds will decrease after sunset,
however the wind speeds are expected to stay around 15 knots
overnight. These southerly winds will begin to draw more humid air
back into southwest Kansas late tonight in the lower levels and
based on the 18z NAM BUFR soundings, RAP, and HRRR some low MVFR
or even IFR ceilings will begin to spread into the DDC area
towards 12z Sunday. Based on the NAM BUFR soundings and the latest
RAP these low clouds will expand and include HYS and possibly even
GCK through late morning. Given the expected wind speeds
overnight dense fog is not anticipate, however a period of MVFR
visibilities will be possible at DDC and GCK around 12z Sunday.
Ceilings will improve late morning and early Sunday afternoon as
boundary layer winds mix and surface winds increase to around 20
knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 43 62 50 69 / 0 0 30 40
GCK 42 65 47 67 / 0 0 10 30
EHA 40 65 44 67 / 0 0 10 20
LBL 43 65 49 69 / 0 0 20 40
HYS 42 62 49 68 / 0 0 20 30
P28 45 60 52 68 / 10 20 50 40
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
718 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. INCREASED
POPS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS
THESE ARE ALREADY SEEING SUSTAINED UPSLOPE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARMER AIR NOTED MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AS PRECIPITATION DRAGGED IT TO THE GROUND. AT PORTLAND WE REACHED
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY (53 DEGREES). THE
OCCLUSION HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW DROPPING SLOWLY UNDER BROKEN CLOUD COVER.
THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND HAVE USED IT FOR
NEAR/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL
LIFT NORTH AND/OR FALL APART AS IT TRACKS EAST FOR THE MOST PART.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING. DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE NEAR AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND WHERE
CEILINGS ARE STILL EXTREMELY LOW. RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN THE BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS. AS WEST WINDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT...BUT STILL EXPECTING
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY MORE SHOWERS AREAWIDE AS UPPER
LEVEL AXIS SWINGS THROUGH LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WE WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WHITES
TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE
MAIN VORTICITY LOBE/700MB AXIS PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT SPARKING
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LAGGING THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
TIMING WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT OVER COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
BREEZY WSW FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSES BY IN SW FLOW ALOFT. AGAIN THERE WILL
BE THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHEARING BY TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY BUT NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOOKING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S. WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPS ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL HOLD
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WEAK OVER-RUNNING PATTERN SETTING UP
TO THE WEST WILL PUSH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST ON
TUESDAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO MONDAY.
LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS OVER THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S TO NEAR
40.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN PUMPING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. OVER-RUNNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DROP HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
INTO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE NORTH BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR
60. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS OFFSHORE.
DEEP SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT MODELS
DIVERGING AT THIS POINT AND BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN
MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIND DIRECTION VARIES AT 08Z THIS MORNING...BUT
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WNW ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN.
CEILINGS ARE ALREADY IMPROVING FOR MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY BR AND
DRIZZLE IS MOST LIKELY AROUND KAUG AND KRKD...BUT BR MAY DEVELOP
ANYWHERE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS MORNING.
-SHRA WILL CONTINUE OVER KHIE AND VICINITY OF KLEB THROUGH THE
DAY. LATER TONIGHT -RA AND -SN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL
TERMINALS BUT MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE -SHSN MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION.
LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT ALSO HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WIND GUSTS WILL
BE BORDERLINE AND OVER THE VERY OUTER WATERS. WILL LET THE NEXT
SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK BEFORE EITHER EXTENDING THE SCA OR
ISSUING GALE WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE BAYS WILL LIKELY
SEE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
328 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
WARMER AIR NOTED MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AS PRECIPITATION DRAGGED IT TO THE GROUND. AT PORTLAND WE REACHED
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY (53 DEGREES). THE
OCCLUSION HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW DROPPING SLOWLY UNDER BROKEN CLOUD COVER.
THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND HAVE USED IT FOR
NEAR/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL
LIFT NORTH AND/OR FALL APART AS IT TRACKS EAST FOR THE MOST PART.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING. DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE NEAR AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND WHERE
CEILINGS ARE STILL EXTREMELY LOW. RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN THE BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS. AS WEST WINDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT...BUT STILL EXPECTING
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY MORE SHOWERS AREAWIDE AS UPPER
LEVEL AXIS SWINGS THROUGH LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WE WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WHITES
TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE
MAIN VORTICITY LOBE/700MB AXIS PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT SPARKING
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LAGGING THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
TIMING WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT OVER COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
BREEZY WSW FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSES BY IN SW FLOW ALOFT. AGAIN THERE WILL
BE THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHEARING BY TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY BUT NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOOKING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S. WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPS ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL HOLD
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WEAK OVER-RUNNING PATTERN SETTING UP
TO THE WEST WILL PUSH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST ON
TUESDAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO MONDAY.
LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS OVER THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S TO NEAR
40.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN PUMPING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. OVER-RUNNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DROP HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
INTO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE NORTH BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR
60. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS OFFSHORE.
DEEP SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT MODELS
DIVERGING AT THIS POINT AND BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN
MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIND DIRECTION VARIES AT 08Z THIS MORNING...BUT
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WNW ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN.
CEILINGS ARE ALREADY IMPROVING FOR MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY BR AND
DRIZZLE IS MOST LIKELY AROUND KAUG AND KRKD...BUT BR MAY DEVELOP
ANYWHERE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS MORNING.
-SHRA WILL CONTINUE OVER KHIE AND VICINITY OF KLEB THROUGH THE
DAY. LATER TONIGHT -RA AND -SN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL
TERMINALS BUT MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE -SHSN MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION.
LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT ALSO HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WIND GUSTS WILL
BE BORDERLINE AND OVER THE VERY OUTER WATERS. WILL LET THE NEXT
SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK BEFORE EITHER EXTENDING THE SCA OR
ISSUING GALE WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE BAYS WILL LIKELY
SEE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1221 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH FAIR BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BEGINNING SATURDAY AND THEN
REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW
WARMING TREND EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AFTER A COOL WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR IS MIXED TO THE SURFACE ALONG
THE COAST. AT PORTLAND WE REACHED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
ENTIRE DAY (53 DEGREES). EXPECT THIS WARMING TO OCCUR WHERE RAIN
IS DRAGGING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES DOWN...IT WILL BE BRIEF AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START FALLING AGAIN SHORTLY. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION WITH MOST OF IT IN EASTERN MAINE BY 3
AM AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL
LIFT NORTH FOR THE MOST PART. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MORNING. DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
LIKELY IN THE TRANSITION TO A DIFFERENT AIRMASS LATER THIS
MORNING.
&&
10PM UPDATE...
LAST MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE NOW AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MAINE BEFORE ENDING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MATCH
CURRENT THINKING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
530PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRIMARILY TO ADJUST HOURLY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. MORE FOCUSED AREA OF PERSISTENT RAIN IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE FRONT IS NOW VISIBLE ON REGIONAL RADAR
AS A LINE OF ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY IN WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THIS
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE BETWEEN 9 PM
AND MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING A LITTLE DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MULTI-VORTEX 500 MB TROUGH TO SHIFT OUT OF GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY THIS LOW SHOWS A WEAKENING CENTER MOVING TO OUR N AND W
WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE SURFACE OCCLUSION
THRU OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS WIND DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND FOG AND DRIZZLE CLEAR OUT IN THE PRE-DAWN AS SW
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. QPF LOOKS
UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH MOST PLACES COMING IN AT TWO OR THREE TENTHS
OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE MUCH...OR
INCREASE SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH...TONIGHT. GENERALLY
IN THE 40S...BUT POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO NEAR 50 IN SOUTHERN NH AND
ON THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BREEZY WSW FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS ONE UPPER
LOW TO OUR N WEAKENS AND ANOTHER DEEPENS TO OUR W. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GET UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. COOLING AIR ALOFT COULD CHANGE
SOME RAIN TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THE
DOWNSLOPE SHOULD BRING SOME SUN TO THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
MORNING...BUT THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDS BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MILD...AS
MID LEVEL AIR STAYS MILD UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...WITH MAXES IN
THE 50S.
THE SECOND BATCH OF ENERGY AND DEEPENING CLOSED 500MB LOW TRACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL DRAG A SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND SHIFTS TO NW BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW HANGING BACK...SHOULD SEE
DECENT CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MOST PLACES ON THE VALLEY FLOORS WILL SEE LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS...PROBABLY LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS AND NOTCHES COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 IN THE N...TO
AROUND 40 IN THE S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES EXITS TO THE EAST
SATURDAY BUT IN ITS WAKE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY. ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ALLOW FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. WITH TIME
THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST BRINGING A WARMER RETURN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. DRY WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER THIS LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AT SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL RETURN ABOVE NORMAL EARLY TO MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR LINGER THRU THE EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SHIFTS THE WINDS TO WSW AND SHOULD SEE A QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR..AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY MORNING. KHIE MAY BE STUCK WITH MVFR
CEILINGS THRU A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY IN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. WINDS
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED AT TIMES ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THRU...BUT
MOST LIKELY WILL BE IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
BY LATE SATURDAY THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
COME TO AN END WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPANDED SCA THRU FRIDAY EVENING...AT LEAST AS WINDS
BEHIND A FRONT SHIFT TO W-SW LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST AROUND SCA
LEVELS. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH...IN THE 5-9 FT
RANGE...INITIALLY IN SWELL THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MAY COME DOWN A
BIT AS THE WIND KNOCKS THEM DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SCA`S WILL BE NEEDED AGAIN SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY GALES AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH
BY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
635 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A MOIST AIR
MASS NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO... RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 60 EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUING IN THE SHORT TERM. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THESE ARE PRIMARILY
THIN AND WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMING IN BELOW
950 MB LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... ROUGHLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HOLLAND TO GRR TO ALMA. THIS COULD BE A HINT THAT SOME
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT... BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE BULK OF THE RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT
AMOUNTS MAY ARRIVE MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF GRR LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AT THE ONSET OF THIS EVENT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE. HIGHS UP NEAR 60 SUNDAY ALTHOUGH STILL BREEZY AND
THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
GRADIENT RELAXES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE TIGHTENING UP AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NNE FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR REGION BOTH DAYS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND BECOME MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS OUR AREA OF AROUND AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ON AVERAGE ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THIS TIME FRAME WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND AMPLE GULF MOISTURE.
FAIR AND COOLER WX WILL RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PCPN FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY IN THE FORM OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SOME COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
I ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ALL OF THE TAFS AS THE RAP AND
NAM MODEL SOUNDING SHOW 35 TO 45 KNOTS IN THE 1000 FT TO 3000 FT
AGL LAYERS TONIGHT. WINDS DO DECREASE SOME TOWARD MORNING THROUGH.
OTHERWISE JUST CIRRUS CLOUDS TONIGHT... SO VFR WILL PREVAIL.
SUNDAY WILL SEE BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS BRING WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS
AND WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT APPEARS POSSIBLE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
RIVER RISES CAN BE EXPECTED... AND SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS COULD APPROACH BANKFULL BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1155 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT CONTINUES TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE WIND GUSTS AND SHOWER
CHANCES LATER TODAY.
MUCH QUIETER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND MILDER WEATHER. THE
AREA COULD SEE A COUPLE OF MORE STRONGER SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MORE WIND AND RAIN TO THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES DROPPING SOUTH THOUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF DEEPER
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO 8000 TO
10,000 FT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE... WHICH IS HAPPENING
CURRENTLY... CONTINUING THROUGH 00-03Z TONIGHT. THIS IS AIDED BY
LAKE INSTABILITY WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 16C.
THE IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
COULD HAVE SOME FAIRLY DECENT INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY FALLING TO AROUND 1200
FT... WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 1000 FT... SO A FEW BRIEF
HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY COAT THE GRASS
ARE POSSIBLE. NO ROADS ISSUES ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH SFC TEMPS
HOVERING AROUND 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
OUR MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST DEAL WITH
WIND POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...AND THE POTENTIAL OF MIXED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
WE WILL BE PULLING DOWN THE ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING...AND HOLDING OFF ON ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA FOR TODAY. FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW POTENTIAL ADVISORY WINDS
ALOFT IF THEY WERE TO BE MIXED DOWN FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF SUNSHINE AND LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES WILL LIMIT THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM POTENTIAL
FOR TODAY. FCST MODELS ALSO SHOW GUST POTENTIAL STAYING JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TOO WINDY.
WINDS TO 40 MPH LOOK LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIMITED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...LIMITED
TO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE CWFA. ECHOES ARE ONCE AGAIN STARTING TO
SHOW UP OVER THE LAKE AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY ACROSS WI AND MN
IS APPROACHING THE AREA. WE EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BLOSSOM
THROUGH MID MORNING. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE W/NW FLOW FAVORED AREAS
AS THE LAKE WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOWERS WITH DELTA T/S IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS C.
P-TYPE LOOKS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS
MORNING AS WET-BULB ZERO HTS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 1500 FT EARLY.
THESE WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WE GET JUST A LITTLE
DIURNAL HEATING. WE EXPECT THAT LIGHTER PCPN WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE BURSTS ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE MORE
SNOW TO REACH THE SFC. THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE CELLULAR AND DIURNAL IN NATURE AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST...BUT WE WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN THE
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO BUILD
IN AND MILDER TEMPS MAKE A GRADUAL RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE FLOW
BECOMES SW THROUGH SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
SFC RIDGING MOVES EAST BY MONDAY WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SFC CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM
KANSAS ON TUESDAY TO THE MICHIGAN U.P. BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS BREAKING
OUT ACROSS WEST MICHIGAN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES THAT AFFECT THE TIMING
OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH MORE AND LESS PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS AFFECTING WHEN THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS WOULD MEAN HIGHER
POPS ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS LATER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
CIGS IN THE 2500-4000 FT AGL RANGE AND NUMEROUS MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL CAUSE INTERMITTENT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY. WNW WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MIXED MVFR/VFR TO VFR OVERNIGHT AS CIGS
IMPROVE AND PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN
VFR FOR SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WSW TO SW.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS REMAIN ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST THIS MORNING...
SO THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. THE
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
WITH WAVES OF 10 FT CONTINUING TO CAUSE POTENTIAL FLOODING OF SOME
LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION.
WE ARE EXPECTING WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THEY WILL THEN DIMINISH. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
HEADLINES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MORE HEADLINES ARE LIKELY SAT NIGHT
AND/OR SUN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS MORNING RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. LIGHT ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR
SO. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVES MID NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1129 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT CONTINUES TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE WIND GUSTS AND SHOWER
CHANCES LATER TODAY.
MUCH QUIETER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND MILDER WEATHER. THE
AREA COULD SEE A COUPLE OF MORE STRONGER SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MORE WIND AND RAIN TO THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES DROPPING SOUTH THOUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF DEEPER
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO 8000 TO
10,000 FT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE... WHICH IS HAPPENING
CURRENTLY... CONTINUING THROUGH 00-03Z TONIGHT. THIS IS AIDED BY
LAKE INSTABILITY WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 16C.
THE IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
COULD HAVE SOME FAIRLY DECENT INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY FALLING TO AROUND 1200
FT... WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 1000 FT... SO A FEW BRIEF
HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY COAT THE GRASS
ARE POSSIBLE. NO ROADS ISSUES ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH SFC TEMPS
HOVERING AROUND 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
OUR MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST DEAL WITH
WIND POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...AND THE POTENTIAL OF MIXED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
WE WILL BE PULLING DOWN THE ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING...AND HOLDING OFF ON ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA FOR TODAY. FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW POTENTIAL ADVISORY WINDS
ALOFT IF THEY WERE TO BE MIXED DOWN FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF SUNSHINE AND LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES WILL LIMIT THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM POTENTIAL
FOR TODAY. FCST MODELS ALSO SHOW GUST POTENTIAL STAYING JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TOO WINDY.
WINDS TO 40 MPH LOOK LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIMITED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...LIMITED
TO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE CWFA. ECHOES ARE ONCE AGAIN STARTING TO
SHOW UP OVER THE LAKE AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY ACROSS WI AND MN
IS APPROACHING THE AREA. WE EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BLOSSOM
THROUGH MID MORNING. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE W/NW FLOW FAVORED AREAS
AS THE LAKE WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOWERS WITH DELTA T/S IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS C.
P-TYPE LOOKS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS
MORNING AS WET-BULB ZERO HTS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 1500 FT EARLY.
THESE WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WE GET JUST A LITTLE
DIURNAL HEATING. WE EXPECT THAT LIGHTER PCPN WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE BURSTS ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE MORE
SNOW TO REACH THE SFC. THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE CELLULAR AND DIURNAL IN NATURE AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST...BUT WE WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN THE
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO BUILD
IN AND MILDER TEMPS MAKE A GRADUAL RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE FLOW
BECOMES SW THROUGH SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
SFC RIDGING MOVES EAST BY MONDAY WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SFC CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM
KANSAS ON TUESDAY TO THE MICHIGAN U.P. BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS BREAKING
OUT ACROSS WEST MICHIGAN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES THAT AFFECT THE TIMING
OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH MORE AND LESS PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS AFFECTING WHEN THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS WOULD MEAN HIGHER
POPS ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS LATER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS MORNING
AND THEN DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE IN THE 2500 TO 3500 FT AGL LEVEL WITH THE LOWER
VALUES IN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS REMAIN ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST THIS MORNING...
SO THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. THE
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
WITH WAVES OF 10 FT CONTINUING TO CAUSE POTENTIAL FLOODING OF SOME
LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION.
WE ARE EXPECTING WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THEY WILL THEN DIMINISH. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
HEADLINES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MORE HEADLINES ARE LIKELY SAT NIGHT
AND/OR SUN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS MORNING RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. LIGHT ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR
SO. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVES MID NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
542 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
THE POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH OUR REGION
OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS HAS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...WITH THE SIZE OF THIS SYSTEM BEING SO LARGE...THE
WEATHER IN THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY THIS
SYSTEM. A LOOK AT EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AND EXTENDING AS FAR AS
MINNESOTA. THIS WILL BE A RATHER QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...AS WE WORK THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM OUT AND BRING IN A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...AND THE BEGINNING OF THE WARMING TREND FOR
THIS WEEKEND.
WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS ONGOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH
EXTREME NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WAS MOSTLY
PLAGUED BY STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW SPITS OF SNOW
FLAKES. NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES TO A DUSTING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS IN THIS PART OF WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. FARTHER WEST...THE CLEARING LINE EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST
OF MILLE LACS LAKE THROUGH THE EASTERN TWIN CITIES METRO TOWARD
RED WING...WITH AREAS WEST OF THIS LINE SEEING CLEAR SKIES. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SLIPS SOUTHEAST TODAY...WE MAY
SEE THE CLOUDS COME BACK OVER THE METRO FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
MID MORNING...BUT WE EXPECT A PROGRESSION TO CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
THEREAFTER. WITH THIS STALLING OF THE CLEARING LINE...PARTS OF
WESTERN WI WILL LIKELY NOT SEE SKIES CLEAR UNTIL THE EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MO WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THIS TIME...THE RIDGE AXIS IS IN THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS...SO WE STILL HAVE AT LEAST A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT /WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY THROUGH/...SO WE WILL SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS 0F 10-15 MPH UNTIL THAT RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES. WITH
THIS PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW TO LAST A DECENT PORTION OF THE
DAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE HELD IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
REGION.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO
OUR EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STILL FALL INTO THE LOW
30S AND UPPER 20S THOUGH BECAUSE THE CLEARING SKIES PAIRED WITH
LOW DEW POINTS AND THE LENGTH OF DARKNESS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT EFFICIENTLY. THIS MEANS THE
INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN IMPRESSIVELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
925MB TEMPS SURGE TO +10C IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A WARM DAY TOMORROW ONCE THE INVERSION MIXES OUT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR TO THE
SERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE H5 RIDGING GLIDES ATOP THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOCLR SKIES AND S-SW FLOW...PRODUCING
QUITE THE PLEASANT WEEKEND FOR MID-NOVEMBER. HIGHS WILL EASILY
CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND POTENTIALLY HIT THE LWR 60S IN FAR WRN MN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
QUICKLY GOING INTO MONDAY WHILE THE E COAST SFC HIGH MOVES INTO
THE ATLC. THIS COMBINATION WILL BE THE START OF A RATHER UNSETTLED
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. FIRST...A MIDLVL LOW PRES DISTURBANCE WILL
SHIFT NEWD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWFA MON INTO MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
DEEP LONGWAVE TROF MOVING ONSHORE THE W COAST LATE SUN THRU MON.
THIS TROF WILL THEN GRADUALLY CROSS THE ROCKIES MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...BECOMING A DEEP LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH
WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN FOR THE CWFA TUE THRU
THU. TOO EARLY TO LATCH ONTO WHICH ONE 6- OR 12- HOUR PERIOD WOULD
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT MUCH OF MON NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT WILL HAVE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR VARYING PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. IN
ADDITION...AFTER THE WARM WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
GO ON A COOLING TREND AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...POTENTIALLY
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN SITES WILL REMAIN IN CLEAR SKIES
TODAY...WHILE EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI WILL DEAL WITH SLOWLY
DEPARTING STRATUS THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM THE STORM THAT HAD IMPACTED OUR
REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE HRRR INSISTS ON PUSHING THE CLOUD
EDGE BACK ABOUT 30 MILES BRIEFLY MID MORNING...BEFORE FINALLY
DEPARTING EAST. FROM THERE ON...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN FOR
THE TAF PERIOD...AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
WORKS THROUGH
KMSP...NO CHANGE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION. MAY SEE A BKN DECK MID
MORNING PUSH IN FROM THE EAST BRIEFLY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND SW AT 10G15KT.
SUN...VFR. WIND. S AT 10G15KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-DZ POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G25KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
400 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND
ONTARIO. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT AS
REINFORCING COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL MIX WITH
AND CHANCE TO SNOW THIS EVENING... ALTHOUGH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW NORMAL ON
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...FAIR AND NOTABLY MILDER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING... HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY WITH THIS UPDATE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST 35 TO 45 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND TURNING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS CONTINUE EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
THIS EVENING UNDER A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING... WITH
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -3 TO -4C AT
THIS POINT. WITH THIS COOLER AIR MOVING IN... THERE HAVE BEEN
INCREASING REPORTS OF RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. DYNAMICAL COOLING WITHIN
THE HEAVIER LAKE ENHANCED BANDS WILL FURTHER HELP PUSH THE P-TYPE
OVER TO MAINLY SNOW THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WITH THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN IN
SURFACE OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO WITH A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND MANY OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT... AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL CHANCE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW EVEN ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO DISRUPT THE LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND SHIFT THEM SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TONIGHT. SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE MORE THAN
A TRACE TO A LIGHT DUSTING AND BE MAINLY LIMITED TO ELEVATED AND
GRASSY SURFACES. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THE TUG HILL REGION... SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 UP TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. EVEN HERE THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO ELEVATED
AND GRASSY SURFACES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ON THE ROADS.
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE WHERE ANY
WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT BANDS DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. KEPT
SOME LOW-LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS AND FOR ANY UPSTREAM LAKE CONNECTIONS TO LAKE HURON AND THE
GEORGIAN BAY WHICH CAUSE THESE LAKE SHOWERS TO BE MORE RESILIENT
AGAINST THE DRYING AIRMASS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE MOISTURE IN A -8C AT 850MB AIRMASS COMBINING
TO CREATE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER CHILLY
RELATIVE TO OUR MILD FALL THUS FAR WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW 40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
END ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES EARLY IN THE EVENING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID IN SKIES
CLEARING. AS THE WIND FIELD LIGHTENS...OUR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SPOKE OF THE HIGH
RIDGED ACROSS OUR REGION...A STORM SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AS FAIR WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ON
TUESDAY A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL NOW BE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHEAST BREEZE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BREEZE COMBINED WITH THE
YET BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE LAKES TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
POSSIBLY 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CUT OFF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. A
STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE RICH GULF AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY HOW LONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE LONGER
THIS FEATURE TAKES TO TRANSITION FROM A CUTOFF LOW TO AN OPEN WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE...THE LATER IN THE WEEK A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND
ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WILL BE.
FOR OUR REGION EXPECT BUILDING WARMTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BEFORE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM PUSHES A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY COULD REACH 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
SEVERAL AREAS POSSIBLY AGAIN REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THERE MAY BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE THE MAIN PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
(ECMWF) OR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY (GFS). THOUGH A STORM SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS HIGHLY LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...UNCERTAIN
TIMING ISSUES WILL WARRANT ONLY CHANCE POPS WITHIN THE
DAILY FORECAST PACKAGE.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. AS TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA DROP
INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION OFF BOTH EASTERN GREAT LAKES ARE
BRINGING LARGELY MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EAST OF THE LAKES.
PRESENTLY THE PRECIPITATION IS RAIN WITH EMBEDDED GRAUPEL WITHIN
THESE BANDS...BUT AS A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX
WITH AND AT TIMES BECOME ALL SNOW. THIS SECONDARY TROUGH WILL LIKELY
BRING PRECIPITATION TO ALL AIRFIELDS TONIGHT. AS THE PASSAGE OF THE
SECONDARY TROUGH OCCURS EXPECT A FURTHER REDUCTION TO LOW END
MVFR/IFR VSBYS. THOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TIME SUCH IFR VSBYS IS LOW AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS...IF IT WERE TO OCCUR...THE KJHW
AND KART AIRFIELD WOULD BE THE BEST BETS.
AS FOR THE WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS STILL NEAR 40 KNOTS ARE
FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE KART AIRFIELD. ELSEWHERE
WITH THE LOSS OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE GUSTS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. THIS LOSS OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO
MINIMIZE THE LLWS POSSIBILITY.
BY 12Z SATURDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOCUS THE BANDS OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SHORELINE OF BOTH LAKES...WITH
SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF KROC...AND LIKELY STILL PASSING OVER THE
KJHW TERMINAL WITH REDUCED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY PM...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A DEEP STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL KEEP STRONG
GUSTY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING...SO
GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE LAKES. HAVE REPLACED GALE
WARNINGS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE NIAGARA AND SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVERS AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGES
THERE.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING...WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH. GALE
WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY SUPPORTING
A CONTINUED GALE WARNING ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LK ONTARIO THROUGH
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A
FAIRLY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045-
063>065.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042-062.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...CHURCH/RSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
618 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS DOWN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION
SATURDAY AND REMAINS INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING NW ZONES.
LATEST HRRR (21Z) SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO TRACK ALONG WITH
THE FRONT PASSING PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA 00-04Z. ANY SHOWERS
WOULD BE BRIEF AND PASS QUICKLY.
WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM THE WSW.
TEMPS DROP OFF IN TO THE 40S. USED THE WARMER NAM MOS DUE TO THE
LARGE AMOUNT OF MIXING EXPECTED. DRY AND WINDY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN STORY IS THE W WINDS THAT GUSTS INTO THE 30S MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY EVENING WITH FREEZING LEVELS DOWN
TO 1500` MSL. THUS...A FEW FLAKES DO NOT SEEM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE INTERIOR HILLS FROM SOME STRATOCU, BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS IN THE MID 50S ON FRIDAY FALL INTO THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT
(EXCEPT A FEW PARTS OF NYC).
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. THE GFS AND NAM WERE
BEST WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS AND TIMING. FOR SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE MIXING WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT
FROM 850 MB. THE COOLER AIR DOES NOT LINGER AS WARM ADVECTION SETS
UP FOR SUNDAY...AND THE AIRMASS ALSO MODIFIES.
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
UNCERTAINTIES BEGIN TO BE MANIFEST IN THE GUIDANCE WITH HOW QUICKLY
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE USED THE WPC
GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FRONT PASSAGE AND IMPROVE TO VFR
THEREAFTER. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SPEEDS BECOME 12-17 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. WEST WINDS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35
KT. STRONGEST GUSTS LIKELY OCCUR AT COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND FRONT PASSAGE
MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 30 KT IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND FRONT PASSAGE
MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 30 KT IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND FRONT PASSAGE
MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 30 KT IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND FRONT PASSAGE
MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND FRONT PASSAGE
MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND FRONT PASSAGE
MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 30 KT IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR. W WINDS G25-35KT.
.SAT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT...DIMINISHING LATE EVENING.
.SUN-TUE...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A WESTERLY GALE.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTH TO WSW WITH THE FROPA. GUSTS OF 30-35
KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN STRONG FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALONG WITH CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
MIXING OF STRONGER WIND ALOFT TO MIX TO THE WATER. GALE FORCE GUSTS
WILL REMAIN ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS INTO SATURDAY. COLD ADVECTION
AND WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAKENING DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
GUSTS MAY FALL BELOW GALE FORCE ON THE LONG ISLAND SOUND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL EXTEND THE GALE WARNING ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ON ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE OCEAN SATURDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
GUSTS COULD REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF MORICHES INLET.
LATER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
FINALLY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL FALL BELOW 5 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DO NOT EXPECT BLOW OUT TIDES TOMORROW OR SATURDAY...BUT TIDES
WILL BE ABOUT A FOOT LOWER THAN ASTRONOMICAL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE/PW
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MET/TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
817 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
.UPDATE...
Some minor updates were made to the forecast based on the latest
trends. See discussion below.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SW flow aloft prevails over the region this evening in the
southern branch of the westerlies. Weak warm advection has
produced showers and a few lightning strikes over western north
TX...and this activity is progged by the HRRR to move into NE OK
between 09z and 12z. Other activity is forecast to spread into SE
OK from TX as well. Have expanded pops north to cover portions of
NE OK. Will keep showers as the weather type...due to a lack of
instability.
Lacy
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 0Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail at all sites
overnight as high clouds continue to increase. Chances for
rainfall will increase during the day Sunday, with VFR conditions
continuing.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Critical fire weather conditions will continue for the next few
hours across areas generally along and northwest of Interstate 44.
No expansion in the Red Flag Warning will be necessary despite the
low humidities just on the south side of the current warning, as
wind speeds are beginning to decrease, remaining below thresholds.
Rain chances will begin to increase after midnight tonight from
north to south, as the lead wave and associated warm advection
move into the region in the developing southwest flow aloft. Low
moisture initially will limit how much rain reaches the ground
tomorrow, but should result in a good wet bulb effect on
temperatures.
A strong low level jet will develop across the region Sunday
night and into Monday morning, bringing a more substantial batch
of rain into the day Monday. With increased moisture, there will
also be a slight increase in the instability and resultant thunder
chances.
The best heavy rain and severe weather potential will arrive
Monday night and into Tuesday, primarily across southeast Oklahoma
and into northwest Arkansas. Instability will be greatly increased
due to the approach of the main upper level system. Widespread
thunderstorms will likely spread northward into the area ahead of
the dryline in response to the strengthening low level jet
overnight. Precipitable water in the region is forecast to be in
the 1.75 to 2 inch range, which is well above normal for mid to
late November, and more than supportive of efficient rainfall
rates, especially with convection likely to be involved. A Flash
Flood Watch may become necessary in the next day or so.
The dry slot will move into the area from west to east during the
day Tuesday, with substantial rainfall likely to end by late
Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening. The chance of additional
precipitation associated with the wraparound as the upper low
passes through is not zero, mainly across northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas, but will forgo POPs in favor of an increase in
cloud cover.
The next system of interest comes toward the end of next week and
into next weekend, with small rain chances associated with the
front that should move through Saturday. There remains uncertainty
around this system so expect fine tuning in this portion of the
forecast over the coming days.
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 50 60 55 66 / 20 30 90 70
FSM 45 60 52 63 / 10 20 60 80
MLC 50 59 54 66 / 30 40 80 80
BVO 44 59 53 64 / 20 20 90 70
FYV 42 56 49 59 / 10 20 80 80
BYV 45 59 47 58 / 10 20 80 90
MKO 46 59 51 62 / 10 30 90 90
MIO 44 61 50 61 / 10 20 90 80
F10 49 58 54 64 / 30 30 90 80
HHW 47 59 53 66 / 30 40 60 80
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
732 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER STEADY OR EVEN FALLING
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY NIGHTFALL. A BETTER CHANCE FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE WEST WIND WILL BE GUSTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOL AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDS EATEN UP BY THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO THE SE OF UNV.
HOWEVER...THICKER STRATUS MOVING IN NOW. SOME OF THAT SHIELD
SHOULD SURVIVE DEEPER INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY...ESP WHEN THE BIG PUSH
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS DOWN LATER THIS AFTN. WINDS STILL
GUSTING INTO THE 20S AREA WIDE. AOO WITH THE GAP WIND AND UNV ARE
STILL INTO THE 30S AT TIMES. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE GOING
FCST. SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TIMING OF CHANGE TO SNOW WITH AN EYE
TOWARD HRRR P-TYPE.
PREV...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ON RADAR...BUT MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA DUE TO THE WESTERLY FETCH. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN CHECK BY THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WELL-MIXED BLYR.
SOME BREAKS ARE SEEN OVER THE AREA THOUGH THEY MAY BE SHORT-LIVED
AS MORE-SOLID STRATUS MOVING IN FROM OHIO SHORTLY. 8H TEMPS DO
DROP ABOUT 4C THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND SFC TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OF EVEN DIP SOME IN THE MORNING. IF THE SERN ZONES
CAN GET SOME SUN TODAY THE TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW DEGS BUT MAY
NOT GET BACK TO WHERE THEY ARE HERE AT 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
BLASTS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING THIS WAVE DEEPENS THE
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA TONIGHT...BUT HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY AFTER
THE TROUGH PASSES THIS EVENING. STILL...THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE
WILL CERTAINLY ADD TO THE LIFT AND CREATE WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
ACCUMULATION...BUT WILL CARRY AN INCH TO TWO OVER THE NWRN MTNS.
THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 4 AM.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND THE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE ADVANCING HIGH SHOULD KILL THINGS OFF AROUND
SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD ON SATURDAY. THE 1030MB HIGH IS ONCE
AGAIN OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND NOT OUT OF CANADA BUT IT WILL RUN
ABOUT 3-8F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MAXES ON SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXPANDS TO COVER ABOUT 3/4S OF THE CONUS.
AFTER A NEARLY NORMAL COLD START TO SUNDAY...MOST PLACES WILL GET
BACK TO ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SUN.
THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND QUIET WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
BRING A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHC OF
RAIN WILL BE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AIRSPACE TODAY. MVFR
CIGS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE IN
ZOB SECTOR. EXPECT FREQUENT SFC WIND GUSTS 25-35KT FROM 270-300
TODAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. OCNL GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40KT. THE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENT MIXING WILL RESULT IN A PRETTY BUMPY TAKEOFF AND FINAL
APPROACH INTO AND OUT OF LOCAL AIRFIELDS.
LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
INVOF OF BFD THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN IFR SHSN AT BFD AFT 00Z. JST WILL ALSO LKLY EXPERIENCE OCNL IFR
VSBY IN SHSN LATER TONIGHT. THE SHSN ACTIVITY CONTINUES INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTN AND ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS VFR FLYING FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...IFR/MVFR AT BFD-JST BCMG MVFR/VFR. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY PUT US BELOW NORMAL FOR A 7-DAY
STRETCH FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID-OCTOBER.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
638 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER STEADY OR EVEN FALLING
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY NIGHTFALL. A BETTER CHANCE FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE WEST WIND WILL BE GUSTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOL AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDS EATEN UP BY THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO THE SE OF UNV.
HOWEVER...THICKER STRATUS MOVING IN NOW. SOME OF THAT SHIELD
SHOULD SURVIVE DEEPER INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY...ESP WHEN THE BIG PUSH
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS DOWN LATER THIS AFTN. WINDS STILL
GUSTING INTO THE 20S AREA WIDE. AOO WITH THE GAP WIND AND UNV ARE
STILL INTO THE 30S AT TIMES. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE GOING
FCST. SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TIMING OF CHANGE TO SNOW WITH AN EYE
TOWARD HRRR P-TYPE.
PREV...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ON RADAR...BUT MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA DUE TO THE WESTERLY FETCH. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN CHECK BY THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WELL-MIXED BLYR.
SOME BREAKS ARE SEEN OVER THE AREA THOUGH THEY MAY BE SHORT-LIVED
AS MORE-SOLID STRATUS MOVING IN FROM OHIO SHORTLY. 8H TEMPS DO
DROP ABOUT 4C THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND SFC TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OF EVEN DIP SOME IN THE MORNING. IF THE SERN ZONES
CAN GET SOME SUN TODAY THE TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW DEGS BUT MAY
NOT GET BACK TO WHERE THEY ARE HERE AT 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
BLASTS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING THIS WAVE DEEPENS THE
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA TONIGHT...BUT HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY AFTER
THE TROUGH PASSES THIS EVENING. STILL...THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE
WILL CERTAINLY ADD TO THE LIFT AND CREATE WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
ACCUMULATION...BUT WILL CARRY AN INCH TO TWO OVER THE NWRN MTNS.
THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 4 AM.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND THE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE ADVANCING HIGH SHOULD KILL THINGS OFF AROUND
SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD ON SATURDAY. THE 1030MB HIGH IS ONCE
AGAIN OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND NOT OUT OF CANADA BUT IT WILL RUN
ABOUT 3-8F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MAXES ON SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXPANDS TO COVER ABOUT 3/4S OF THE CONUS.
AFTER A NEARLY NORMAL COLD START TO SUNDAY...MOST PLACES WILL GET
BACK TO ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SUN.
THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND QUIET WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
BRING A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHC OF
RAIN WILL BE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
09Z UPDATE...IR STLT LOOP SHOWS SOME CLEARING OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL AIRSPACE AND CLOUD BASES HAVE LIFTED TO LOW VFR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT BFD. OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO 06Z TAF FOR THIS
INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.
06Z...MVFR CIGS 1500-3000FT AGL WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL TAFS THIS MORNING WITH LOW END VFR CIGS AROUND 4-5KFT AGL
ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS. UNV/AOO MAY LIFT TO LOW END VFR THIS
AFTN BUT NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AT BFD/JST GIVEN FAVORED WLY FLOW
PATTERN.
EXPECT FREQUENT SFC WIND GUSTS 25-35KT FROM 270-300 DURING THE DAY
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE LATER TONIGHT. OCNL GUST AOA 40KTS PSBL.
THE LOW LEVEL TURBULENT MIXING WILL RESULT IN A PRETTY BUMPY
TAKEOFF AND FINAL APPROACH INTO LOCAL AIRFIELDS.
LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY FOCUS OVER
NW PA BEFORE BECOMING MORE NW-SE ORIENTED TONIGHT AS MEAN BLYR
FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE WNW. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR SHSN AT BFD
AFT 00Z. JST WILL ALSO LKLY EXPERIENCE IFR VSBY IN SHSN LATER
TONIGHT. THE SHSN ACTIVITY CONTINUES INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS VFR FLYING FOR SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...IFR/MVFR AT BFD-JST BCMG MVFR/VFR. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY PUT US BELOW NORMAL FOR A 7-DAY
STRETCH FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID-OCTOBER.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
338 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
Weak shortwave will move into West Texas tonight and then across
West Central Texas on Saturday. The TTU WRF and the HRRR both show a
little more widespread rainfall as this wave passes than the larger
scale models. What showers that do develop will be battling some
very dry air at the surface, so the rain tonight may well evaporate
before reaching the ground. As low level moisture increases on
Saturday, the rain has a better and better chance of reaching the
ground. With this in mind, left the rain chances tonight very small
and confined to just the southwest counties. Increased rain chances
slightly for Saturday, especially for the eastern counties, and
pushed them northward across the I-20 corridor from Sweetwater to
Abilene. Overall though, most areas will see totals less than one
tenth of an inch.
Otherwise, cool conditions on Saturday with the additional rain and
cloud cover. Kept most areas in the 50s to around 60 for highs.
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Sunday Night)
The combination of weak disturbances in west-southwest flow aloft
and isentropic lift/overrunning will bring a chance of showers and
few thunderstorms this weekend. The rainfall amounts will be light,
generally less than 1/10 of an inch for most areas...with local
amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch possible.
(Monday through Tuesday)
There will be a chance of thunderstorms Monday and Monday night and
then windy for Tuesday. The medium range models are indicating a
vigorous upper level trough developing over the western CONUS this
weekend, advancing east with the trough axis over the Southern
Rockies by 17/00Z. After that, strong mid to upper level ascent
spreads east into the Southern Plains Monday night into Tuesday
morning, along with a mid level speed max of 80 to 100 knots. At the
surface, a dryline/Pacific front will be just west of our area by
17/00Z. Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop
along the dryline late Monday afternoon into the evening and move
rapidly east across the area. A few storms may be severe due to
strong low and mid level shear and some instability. The PW values
of 1 to 1.25 inches may result in locally heavy rainfall across
mainly the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country. Most of the
storms should exit the area by late Monday night. A mid level dry
slot will follow for Tuesday, resulting in windy conditions with
gusts of 30 to 35 mph.
(Tuesday Night through Friday)
Looks like a quiet weather pattern with seasonable temperatures.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the upper 30s and 40s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 44 58 50 62 / 5 30 20 50
San Angelo 46 57 52 65 / 20 40 20 50
Junction 48 57 51 65 / 10 40 30 40
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
07/21
AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
958 AM PST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY...REACHING SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING. A BREAK FROM THE WET AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY
THIS EVENING ONCE THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF A LOCATION.
HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY AND PUSH THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A RENEWED ROUND OF RAIN ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
WIND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RAIN WILL RESUME ON MONDAY
AS WARM FRONT REACHES THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A STRONG 160 KT JET AT 300 MB IS CUTTING ACROSS
VANCOUVER ISLAND TODAY. SUCH STRONG JET ARE USUALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG BAROCLINICITY...A FANCY WORD FOR STRONG TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE JET OR A COLD FRONT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. INDEED...A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW
MAKING SLOW HEADWAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH WRN WA. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WHILE LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE SEEING DECREASING
WIND AND AN EASING OF RAINFALL RATES. AT 9 AM...THE FRONT WAS
LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR OCEAN SHORES TO ARLINGTON. AS THE
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY...THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD
DECREASING WIND AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN. THE
MAIN FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN LATER THIS AFTN WILL BE OVER LEWIS COUNTY
AND OVER THE CASCADES FROM ABOUT STEVENS PASS ON SOUTH. A TURN TO
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN OVER SNOHOMISH AND NORTHERN
KING COUNTIES.
ON SATURDAY...A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...INITIATING SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. A DEEPENING AND ELONGATED LOW CENTER
WILL MOVE UP THE OREGON COAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW...THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL START TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD...AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN LIFT AND PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT OVER WRN WA. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP A GOOD BIT OF SNOW
OVER THE MTNS. THE MAIN POINT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MTN SNOW WILL
BE DUE TO HAVING SUCH A SHARP BAROCLINIC AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTING AROUND OVER WRN WA ON SAT AND SAT NGT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE QUITE HIGH (ABOUT 7000 FEET) ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3000-4500 FEET ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE OLYMPICS STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE
OF STAYING ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THE MOUNT
RAINIER AREA HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF REMAINING ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. ULTIMATELY...EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT MTN
LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP.
AS THE DEEPENING LOW EXITS TO OUR NE ON SUNDAY...SW PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT AND OVER THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE ABOUT A 5-10 HOUR PERIOD OF WINDY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
WRN WA ON SUNDAY...CENTERED ON SUNDAY AFTN. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS
LIKE THE WIND WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BEHIND THE LOW ON SUNDAY...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL SWEEP IN. 850 MB
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE -6C TO -4C RANGE...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO 2000 FEET OR LESS. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND A
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE POINTED AT STEVENS PASS...LOOKS LIKE
THE KIND OF WEATHER THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SNOWPACK-BUILDING OVER
THE MTNS. HANER
.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE E OF W WA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SHOWERY
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER W WA WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN AROUND 2000
FEET. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN HAVING CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SEEM TO HAVE SETTLED ON A WARM FRONT
REACHING THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS
BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DIFFER ON THE
TIMING. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KAM
&&
.AVIATION...A STRONG FRONT SITTING FROM AROUND KNUW TO THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST WILL SAG SLOWLY SWD TO S OF KOLM AND KHQM 03Z SAT.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SAT.
THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND MOIST.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE AREA.
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
10Z SAT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM STARTS MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT. ALBRECHT
KSEA...CIGS GENERALLY 012-020 THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VIS 4-6SM IN
-RA BR. SOUTH WINDS 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL TAPER OFF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME N/NE 5-8 KT WITH CIGS AROUND 015
BY ABOUT 14Z SAT WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS DROP TO 007 WITH
VIS 2 TO 4 SM -RA BR. ALBRECHT
&&
.MARINE...GALE FORCE WINDS OVER PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL WILL EASE
FROM THE NORTH TODAY. GALES HAVE ENDED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
IN THE INLAND WATERS NORTH OF PUGET SOUND AS A STRONG AND SLOW
MOVING FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE INLAND WATERS ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WILL EASE THIS
EVENING.
A 19-22 FT SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 18 SECONDS WILL MOVE ONTO THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
SOME FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW FORMING OVER THE
OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS SAT AFTERNOON THAT WILL LIFT NNE THROUGH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS LOW COULD GIVE GALE FORCE NW WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY N WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND
WATERS SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
FOR A STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WITH SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ALBRECHT
&&
.HYDROLOGY...HAD SOME IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES IN THE NORTH
CASCADES EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND THE 24-HOUR TOTALS OVER THE
OLYMPICS HAVE BEEN PRETTY AMAZING. RAIN GAGES NEAR LAKE QUINAULT
HAVE MEASURED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 11 INCHES IN JUST 24 HOURS. WRN WA
RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY RISING...WITH MANY MAINSTEM RIVERS HEADING
TOWARD MINOR AND MODERATE FLOODING. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER.
THE MOST PRONOUNCED DROPOFF IN RAINFALL RATES TODAY WILL BE OVER
THE FAR NORTH CASCADES AND THE NW HALF OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...RAINFALL RATES WILL DROP OFF THIS AFTN...BUT
IT WILL BE LEAST PRONOUNCED OVER LEWIS COUNTY AND THE CASCADES
FROM STEVENS PASS ON SOUTH.HANER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WIND ADVISORY CENTRAL COAST UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND ADVISORY INTERIOR LOWLANDS FROM THE EVERETT AREA SOUTH
THROUGH LEWIS COUNTY UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST SATURDAY
FOR THE COAST.
FLOOD WATCHES AND/OR FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PZ...GALE WARNING PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
952 AM PST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and warm weather system with wind, rain and high
elevation snow is expected through the weekend. Another strong
storm is likely Monday night through Wednesday bringing a mix of
rain and snow and windy conditions once again. Conditions start to
dry out toward the latter part of next week, at least briefly.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: An atmospheric river remains aimed at the area with heavy
rain falling near the Cascade crest. Thus far rain gauges have
shown as much as 4 inches of precip at the crest with 1.85" east
of the crest in Stehekin. Rain will continue at the crest today
and will be monitoring the Stehekin River as well as rain totals
for burn scars near the crest. East of the Cascade crest a
significant rain shadow is prevalent across Central and Eastern
Washington and the forecast has been updated to decrease POP`s and
precipitation amounts. 850mb winds out of the west- southwest
hitting the Cascades at 50 kts will continue to result in a strong
rain shadow today. However some of the higher resolution models
such as the ARW, NMM, as well as the HRRR suggest precip may fill
in during the afternoon across Northeast Washington, the Idaho
Panhandle, as possibly over the eastern Columbia Basin and Spokane
area as the atmospheric river stalls over the region. Confidence
is highest of this occurring in the mountains of NE Washington and
N Idaho.
The break in the rain prompted a wind advisory to be issued
earlier for the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area,
and Palouse. With this break in the rain expected to continue
through at least early afternoon, the potential will remain for
higher winds above the surface to mix down and will keep these
wind advisories in place.
Lastly, the break in the rain and even some sun breaks have
allowed temps as of 9 am already to reach the mid 50s around Moses
Lake. Have increased temps to lower 60s which would be a daily
record for Ephrata. Also increased a temps 2-4 degrees for most
other towns based on latest temperature trends. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An atmospheric river will remain aimed at the Inland NW
with rain today mainly over the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle.
Strong downslope flow off the Cascades and a break in the rain
over Central and Eastern Washington will lead to windy conditions
with southwest winds gusting to 30-40 kts. The Cascade valleys
will be sheltered from these winds...and KEAT should remain
variable. Overall the downslope flow decreases some tonight and
with the atmospheric river remaining over the area should see an
increase in rain over the region...especially north of KPUW
impacting the KGEG/KSFF/KCOE TAF sites with MVFR conditions
expected by Saturday morning. VFR conditions are expected through
18z Saturday at KPUW/KLWS/KEAT/KMWH. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 44 51 38 42 28 / 40 80 60 50 80 20
Coeur d`Alene 53 42 49 39 44 29 / 60 90 70 40 70 20
Pullman 54 41 53 38 42 29 / 40 60 30 30 60 20
Lewiston 59 44 56 43 50 35 / 10 30 20 30 60 20
Colville 52 43 48 38 46 25 / 60 100 100 70 80 20
Sandpoint 48 40 45 36 42 26 / 100 100 100 50 70 20
Kellogg 43 39 47 37 39 27 / 100 80 60 30 70 30
Moses Lake 63 47 56 38 50 29 / 10 40 40 70 20 10
Wenatchee 54 44 53 40 49 33 / 10 30 40 70 20 10
Omak 57 40 48 39 48 29 / 10 50 70 80 80 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for Coeur d`Alene
Area-Idaho Palouse.
WA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for Spokane Area-
Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
927 AM PST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MILD AND WET FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FIRST...A WARM FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES TO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN...A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
PLENTY OF RAIN AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND
NOTABLE CASCADE SNOW. A TRAILING UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...VALLEY RAIN
SHOWERS...AND SNOW TO THE CASCADES. ANOTHER RATHER WET...BUT FAST
MOVING...SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THOUGH MONDAY...ATMOSPHERIC RIVER RAIN EVENT
WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE COLD FRONT POISED TO STALL NORTH OF OUR
AREA. FOR OUR AREA LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST AND NORTH OREGON COASTAL AREAS. NESDIS SATELLITE
PCPN ESTIMATE CALL FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN RATES AGAIN THIS MORNING
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS FEATURE CAN BE SEEN NEARING THE COAST ON IR
SATELLITE LOOP.
THE BREAK IN HEAVIER RAIN RATES HAS ALLOWED RIVERS IN SW WASHINGTON
TO SLOW OR STOP RISING. THIS WILL EASE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE SHORT TERM. AS WILL BE COVERED NEXT...DO NOT HAVE
ANY CONFIDENCE TO DROP THE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. /MH
NEXT SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF INTEREST ALONG THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS A
SHORTWAVE APPARENT ON SATELLITE NEAR 150W. THIS FEATURE WILL START
TO SPIN UP INTO A LOW AS IT NEARS 140W LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
FULLY DEVELOP WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AS IT CROSSES 130W. ALL
THE WHILE, IT WILL BE DRAGGING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH AND WEST.
THIS WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE STALLED COLD FRONT NORTH AND WEST TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MOST INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY FEEL THE
RELATIVE CALM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PIVOTS OVER SW
WASHINGTON AND BECOMES ORIENTED MORE NORTH TO SOUTH. NOT TERRIBLY
SURE JUST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BUT LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE
COASTLINE OR JUST OFFSHORE. ALL THE WHILE...NW OREGON/SW WASHINGTON
WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN WITH 0.75-1.00 INCHES EVERY
6 HOURS BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES ALONG THE UPPER JET. EXPECT WINDS WILL
PEAK ALONG THE COAST WITH 50-60 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE...PERHAPS LOCALLY
HIGHER DEPENDING ON JUST HOW CLOSE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PHASES
WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE. ALSO...THIS IS WHEN AREAS EAST
OF THE COAST RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR BEST RAINS. STILL NOT
LOOKING ANYTHING LIKE THE HALLOWEEN EVENT BUT BREEZY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STRIP LEAVES OFF TREES. CLOGGED DRAINS
AND CULVERTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF FLOOD CONCERNS AWAY FROM
THE EXTREME NW PART OF THE CWA.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASING UNSTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE COLDER MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS DRIFTS
OVER THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS SEEM POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE COAST
RANGE WESTWARD. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW TO PRODUCE NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
RATES FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY. THE COLDER SIR WILL BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO THE HIGHER CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE PEAKS.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE BURSTS OF RAIN/SNOW...ONE ON SUNDAY MORNING
AND ANOTHER SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BECOME POSSIBLE FOR THE CASCADES
PASSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12 HOUR ACCUMULATIONS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING. STAY TUNED...HOWEVER...AS TIMING OF THESE BURSTS
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS
UNDER JET ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW. /JBONK
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. REMAINDER OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWER-ELEVATION SNOW WON`T
STICK AROUND FOR LONG THOUGH...AS SNOW LEVELS LIFT BACK UP TO 6000-
7000 FT BY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES OUR AREA...TAPPING INTO TROPICAL
MOISTURE CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM A
BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN WHERE THEY WERE TRACKING IT
YESTERDAY...SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. BECAUSE MODELS ARE BEING INCONSISTENT WITH FORECASTING
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL SET UP AT THIS TIME. SINCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN ON THE
HEELS OF ANOTHER HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCER...THE FLOODING POTENTIAL IS
HIGHER PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE NORTH OREGON
COAST AND COAST RANGE AS RIVERS WON`T HAVE MUCH TIME TO COME BACK
DOWN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO
THURSDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW THE PASSES FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...PERSISTENT MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS REMAINS OVER
THE AREA WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST IN
LIGHT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND FAR
NORTH OREGON COASTS THROUGH TONIGHT...SPREADING SOME RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA INLAND. EXPECT A CONTINUED MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS...WITH THE BETTER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z-08Z SATURDAY BEFORE A BAND OF RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINAL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. /27
&&
.MARINE...COMPLICATED MARINE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
REMAINS HUNG UP ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS.
THE MODELS THEN ARE ADAMANT A 995 TO 1000 MB SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY AS IT BECOMES
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND COULD POSSIBLY INCREASE TO HIGH END
GALE OR PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER BEFORE THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT THAT MAY BE EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OR LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO
THE WATERS.
SEAS 13 TO 16 FT THIS MORNING WILL PEAK AROUND 20 TO 21 FT WITH
PERIODS 17 TO 19 SECONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LONG
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES IN. HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST DUE TO THESE HIGH SEAS. SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY...PEAKING WITH THE FRONT AND LOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A RISK OF REACHING 20 FT AGAIN. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE 10 FT INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES. PT/27
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM 7 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10
AM PST SATURDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
856 AM PST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and warm weather system with wind, rain and high
elevation snow is expected through the weekend. Another strong
storm is likely Monday night through Wednesday bringing a mix of
rain and snow and windy conditions once again. Conditions start to
dry out toward the latter part of next week, at least briefly.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: An atmospheric river remains aimed at the area with heavy
rain falling near the Cascade crest. Thus far rain gauges have
shown as much as 4 inches of precip at the crest with 1.85" east
of the crest in Stehekin. Rain will continue at the crest today
and will be monitoring the Stehekin River as well as rain totals
for burn scars near the crest. East of the Cascade crest a
significant rain shadow is prevalent across Central and Eastern
Washington and the forecast has been updated to decrease POP`s and
precipitation amounts. 850mb winds out of the west- southwest
hitting the Cascades at 50 kts will continue to result in a strong
rain shadow today. However some of the higher resolution models
such as the ARW, NMM, as well as the HRRR suggest precip may fill
in during the afternoon across Northeast Washington, the Idaho
Panhandle, as possibly over the eastern Columbia Basin and Spokane
area as the atmospheric river stalls over the region. Confidence
is highest of this occurring in the mountains of NE Washington and
N Idaho.
The break in the rain prompted a wind advisory to be issued
earlier for the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area,
and Palouse. With this break in the rain expected to continue
through at least early afternoon, the potential will remain for
higher winds above the surface to mix down and will keep these
wind advisories in place. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A deep and well directed fetch of Pacific moisture
driven by westerly flow aloft will promote a long running period
of widespread rain over much of the region through the TAF period.
Mountain obscurations will be widespread surrounding the Columbia
Basin. The eastern TAF sites will see sustained periods of rain
but ceilings and visibilities should remain VFR except for brief
periods of MVFR ceilings possible. The KMWH and KEAT TAF sites
will lay in a downslope region in the lee of the Cascades and
remain predominantly dry and VFR although with heavy mid level
cloud ceilings of 8-10kft MSL. Strong winds just off the surface
will create LLWS over the eastern TAF sites this morning...but
mixing will promote these winds affecting the surface by afternoon
with southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph likely with higher gusts
especially at the KGEG area TAF sites. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 54 44 51 38 42 28 / 40 80 60 50 80 20
Coeur d`Alene 51 42 49 39 44 29 / 60 90 70 40 70 20
Pullman 54 41 53 38 42 29 / 40 60 30 30 60 20
Lewiston 57 44 56 43 50 35 / 10 30 20 30 60 20
Colville 48 43 48 38 46 25 / 60 100 100 70 80 20
Sandpoint 45 40 45 36 42 26 / 100 100 100 50 70 20
Kellogg 43 39 47 37 39 27 / 100 80 60 30 70 30
Moses Lake 58 47 56 38 50 29 / 10 40 40 70 20 10
Wenatchee 54 44 53 40 49 33 / 10 30 40 70 20 10
Omak 53 40 48 39 48 29 / 10 50 70 80 80 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for Coeur d`Alene
Area-Idaho Palouse.
WA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for Spokane Area-
Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
525 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM SAT NOV 14 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A
BROAD/FLATTENED MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS INCLUDING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. FLOW
ALOFT WAS TAPPING MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC RESULTING IN SPORADIC
BOUTS OF CIRRUS CLOUD ACROSS OUR AREA. OTHER THAN THAT...A VERY
QUIET/PLEASANT AUTUMN DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
MIDDLE 50S.
QUIET/PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE REGION.
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 10-12C
RANGE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
THINGS CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN EMBEDDED
WEAK TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM SAT NOV 14 2015
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY/DEFINITE MONDAY MORNING AS THAT MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...PERHAPS TAPERING OFF SOME IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF
THE BETTER FORCING OF THE WAVE. DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS MONDAY STILL LOOK TO TOP OFF IN THE
LOWER 50S OR SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO VERSUS RAIN AS MOISTURE PILES UP UNDER A
STRENGTHENING 850MB INVERSION. STILL LOOKS WET NONETHELESS.
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING STACKED MID-LEVEL/SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS...AND WITH VERY LIMITED 0-6KM MUCAPE...PERHAPS A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL
AS GULF MOISTURE CORRIDOR REMAINS WIDE OPEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1-1.25 INCH RANGE. TUESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARM AIR BEING PULLED IN AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW. LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE 50S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
RAIN CHANCE CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
NORTH INTO CANADA AND WRAP-AROUND/DEFORMATION MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE COLUMN MAY COOL ENOUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR PERHAPS SOME MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT APPEARS VERY LIGHT AS
THAT DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WANING PHASE.
SOME LINGERING MIXED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THURSDAY AS A WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...CHILLIER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN AS HIGHS
TOP OFF IN THE 40S.
ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR CONTINUED RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANCES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
MODELS SHOW A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY LOOK TO BE MIDDLE 30S TOT HE LOWER
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. BOTH THE
14.18Z NAM AND 14.21Z RAP SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
SHEAR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS AROUND 1500
FEET INCREASE TO ABOUT 40 KNOTS AND WILL ADD THIS IN TO BOTH TAFS.
IT LOOKS LIKE THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER
TROUGHING MOVING EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES HOWEVER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH A WIDESPREAD OVERCAST OVER THE NORTHEAST THREE QUARTERS
OF THE STATE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING NE WI AND THINK DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE SNOW BELTS...BUT ALSO
THINK THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE 21-00Z TIME PERIOD. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING EAST OVER WESTERN
WI AHEAD OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVER MINNESOTA. SOME
BREAKS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS. FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS...AND ALSO TEMPS.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
ADVANCEMENT OF MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCELERATE A CLEARING TREND THIS
EVENING. WILL ONLY SEE THE PASSAGE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS EXIT. TEMPS ARE RATHER TRICKY SINCE WINDS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH...AND NOW THERE IS FRESH SNOWPACK IN THE
SNOWBELT AREAS. TEMPS COULD EASILY FALL INTO THE TEENS IF THERE IS A
PERIOD OF CALM WINDS...WHICH COULD HAPPEN NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS.
ELSEWHERE...LOW TO MID 20S LOOK ABOUT RIGHT.
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ADVECT IN WARMER
AIR. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. THOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL GENERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S ON
SUNDAY...BUT ALSO CARRY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION WITH
THE MODERATING TEMPS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THEN THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. SIMILAR TO THE RECENT SYSTEM THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND SWEEP THROUGH BY FRIDAY EVENING...USHERING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. LIGHT PRECIP WILL DIMINISH BY MID-
AFTERNOON...WHILE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB. CLEARING WILL OCCUR
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
END MVFR CONDITIONS AT RHI. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT...GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
BECOME A GUSTY AT TIMES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KTS ARE STILL OCCURRING...BUT
APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IS TOO LOW TO
CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING. WILL DOWNGRADE THE WARNING INTO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE LATE. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS
AND BUILDING WAVES.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......MPC
MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
933 PM MST SAT NOV 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
OCCUR MONDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THAT SAID...STILL
LOOKING AT SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TOMORROW MORNING. CLOUDS WERE
STARTING TO LOWER AND THICKEN LATE THIS EVENING WITH RADAR DETECTING
SOME WEAK ECHOES SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AT ANY
RATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARED TO BE ON TRACK WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THUS...NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE
DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 16/06Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS 9-12K FT MSL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS ABOVE. CLOUDS
SPREADING NORTH AND LOWERING TO SCT-BKN 5-7K FT...BKN-OVC 9-12K FT
AFT 15/06Z AND CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED -SHRA WILL DEVELOP SOUTH TO WEST OF KTUS AFTER 15/05Z...
THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY.
SURFACE WIND ELY/SELY AT 5-15 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
THEN BECOMING S-SW 9-17 KTS AFTER 15/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
SUNDAY AREA WIDE AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A SECOND
STRONGER STORM WILL THEN BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. IT WILL DRY OUT
TUESDAY ONWARD WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES LINGERING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N/125W WILL FILL THIS EVENING THEN MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS SE ARIZONA SUNDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDERSOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT
WILL TRANSLATE INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MUCHOF THE AREA. ACCORDING TO SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS...SHOWERS
SHOULDMOVE INTO THE TUCSON METRO AREA DURING THE 15/09Z TO 15/11Z
PERIOD.
THE 14/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS SE ARIZONA SUN. BASED ON THESE
SOLUTIONS...POPS WERE INCREASED SUN ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND
SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. 14/12Z GFS DEPICTED A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO EXIST SUN. THUS...EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SUN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW EXISTS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST
AND SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.
THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION SUN NIGHT AND MON TURNS TOWARD A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SWRN CONUS.
THERE WERE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC
REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW BY MIDDAY MON. FOR
INSTANCE...THE GFS/CMC WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE UPPER LOW TO
BE CENTERED OVER NWRN NEW MEXICO MIDDAY MON. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF WAS
FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND DEPICTED THE UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER NRN ARIZONA MIDDAY MON.
THERE WERE ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA
POPS FOR SUN NIGHT-MON. THUS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND
COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON. SNOW LEVELS EARLY SUN EVENING WILL
STILL BE ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOPS...THEN SNOW LEVELS LATE MON AFTERNOON
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 4000 FEET ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 5000 FEET NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT
SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM MON...AND WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE BRIEFLY ACHIEVED PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MON NIGHT WILL
BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AREA-
WIDE TUE-SAT AS NLY FLOW ALOFT TUE TRANSITIONS TO WLY FLOW ALOFT
NEXT SAT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.25 - 0.75 INCH IN THE VALLEYS FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD...BUT ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT 0.50 - 0.75 INCH OF LIQUID AMOUNTS.
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 3-7
INCHES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET...AND FROM 1-4
INCHES ACROSS THE CATALINA/RINCON/GALIURO/PINALENO MOUNTAINS IN
PIMA/GRAHAM COUNTIES ABOVE 7000 FEET. ONLY TRACE ACCUMS TO PERHAPS
AN INCH OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR ON THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES.
HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE ABOUT 5-15 DEGS COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED
THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING UPON LOCATION...THEN ANOTHER 10-15 DEGS OF
COOLING WILL OCCUR MON. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
OCCUR MON NIGHT EXCEPT ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. FREEZE WARNINGS AND/OR HARD FREEZE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MON NIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR
TUE-FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY NEXT FRI.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
355 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING ONGOING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
STREAMING UP THE PLAINS TO MID/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY WEST/NORTHWEST
OF TN VALLEY/OH RVR VALLEY RIDGE COMPLEX. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC
WINDS OF 5 TO 10+ MPH CURRENTLY KEEPING TEMPS UP IN THE 40S ACRS
THE AREA. ALOFT...BROAD RIDGING CONTINUED TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE
CONUS WHILE A STRONG LONG WAVE TROF LOOMED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
TODAY...SIMILAR AIRMASS IN PLACE/THERMAL PROFILES AS SAT CONTINUE
ACRS THE AREA...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEPER MIXING THAN WHAT THE
MODELS GIVE CREDIT FOR LOOKS TO BE ON TAP AGAIN TODAY WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS WITH A FEW AREAS PUSHING
THE UPPER 60S. BUT THE FLY IN THE MILDNESS OINTMENT IS INCREASING
LLVL MOISTURE PROFILES FROM THE SOUTHERLY ADVECTION...AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THE STRATOCU CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACRS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS MAKING IT UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY
WHICH WOULD TEMPER THE WARM UP POTENTIAL. WILL GAMBLE AND GO WITH
THE LOW TO MID 60 POTENTIAL ACRS THE EASTERN HALF OR A LITTLE MORE
OF THE DVN CWA...AND KEEP THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN FCST AREA IN
THE LOW 60S WHICH COULD BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGHER SFC
DPT FEED AND SOME OF THE STRATOCU COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WILL NEED SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20S
TO GET THE FCST HIGHS TODAY.
TONIGHT...30 TO 40+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AND MOIST CONVEYOR OFF THE
WESTERN GULF AND UP THE PLAINS TO REALLY TAKE SHAPE THIS PERIOD...
BUT LATEST 00Z RUN MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THE FULL PUNCH
OF THIS TO STREAM MORE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CWA UNTIL VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. TIME FOR TOP-DOWN SATURATION AND DRY SUB H7 MB LAYERS
TO OVERCOME TO LIMIT MUCH OF ANY PRECIP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RVR
UNTIL MON MORNING. A FEW SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF AND ARW-
EAST EVEN SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE CWA TO BE DRY THROUGH 12Z MON
WITH JUST SOME PATCHY PRECIP ALOFT/VIRGA PERCOLATING WEST OF THE
MS RVR LATE. BUT WITH STRENGTH OF THE LLJ AND EVENTUAL THTA-E FEED
WILL RAMP UP POPS ACRS THE WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS...SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING SATURATION TO
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT AND WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
NEAR 50. ..12..
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
MON-WED... THIS PERIOD CONTINUES SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET ONE
FOR THE CWA. AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL TRANSLATE E/NE AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH DIGGING
NORTHERN STREAM CANADIAN SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WED NGT. THIS WILL SET UP AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
MON-TUE IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM. MEANWHILE STRENGTHENING AND
UNIMPEDED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW ABUNDANT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF
RAIN INTO WED BEFORE TAPERING OFF WITH PASSAGE OF STORM SYSTEM.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.25 TO
1.6 INCHES... WHICH IS OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR RECORD OR
RECORD TERRITORY FOR NOVEMBER. 00Z/15 NAEFS ALSO HIGHLIGHTS
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AT
VARIOUS LEVELS BETWEEN 925-500 MB ON ORDER OF 2-4 SIGMA... OR
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS COUPLED WITH STRENGTH OF FORCING SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH AMOUNTS... WHICH IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY NCEP GEFS REFORECAST QPF ANALOGS AND CIPS ANALOGS.
THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BRING MOSTLY WITHIN-BANK RISES ON AREA
STREAMS... CREEKS AND RIVERS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN ANY TRIBUTARY RIVER BASIN WHICH RECEIVES
UPWARDS OF 2+ INCHES IN 24 HR TIMEFRAME PER NCRFC ENSEMBLES.
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROGGED WITH SYSTEM... BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER KEPT
ISOLD MENTION TUE-TUE NGT WITH BRUNT OF THE DYNAMICS AND 850-300
MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEARING 0K/KM. DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE MON-WED PERIOD.
THU-SAT... QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED RATHER PRONOUNCED MODEL RUN TO RUN
VARIANCES ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ENERGY SHUTTLED INTO THE
REGION FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH FAST ZONAL UPPER JET. SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST 24+ HRS OF DRY CONDITIONS WED NGT THROUGH THU IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING SYSTEM BEFORE ANY PCPN CHANCES RETURN TO FCST AT THE
EARLIEST FRI... AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF ENERGY. TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING COLDER THIS PERIOD WITH
CWA POSITIONED NEAR LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MAKING FOR A
CHALLENGING PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST. POSITION OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE KEY TO WHETHER ITS RAIN...RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR POSSIBLY EVEN ALL SNOW. AGAIN VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON
DETAILS... BUT CERTAINLY WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE GET
PAST EARLY WEEK HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT... AS SIGNAL HAS BEEN PRESENT
FOR A POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT ON COLDER SIDE OF BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT
JUST WHERE THAT WILL BE STILL VERY MUCH IN FLUX.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
FIRST CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
NEXT 6 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS NOT FULLY
DECOUPLED WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING IN THE 7-11KT RANGE...
RADAR HAS BEEN OBSERVING 40-50KT WINDS AROUND 2K FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE. THE RAP IS INDICATING THE WIND PATTERN WILL STAY SIMILAR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO HAVE LLWS IN THE FORECAST
FOR ALL SITES THROUGH 11-12Z. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS WITH LESS
WIND IMPACT...BUT UPON TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING /AROUND
15 OR 16Z/...EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS FOR ALL TERMINALS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO HAVE BROKEN VFR CEILINGS BY 03Z.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1137 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE...THAT WAS SITUATED
OVERHEAD YESTERDAY...HAD SINCE SETTLED S-SE TO THE MID MS RIVER AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND SUNSHINE ONLY PARTIALLY FILTERED BY CI HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
AFTER A NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL.
ALOFT...A WEAK RIDGE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER...WITH
AN UPSTREAM LOW OVER WESTERN AZ AND ANOTHER WEAKER CIRCULATION
WELL OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WV IMAGERY.
A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WAS
DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC WELL WEST OF WA AND OR. LOW LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WAS CONFINING GULF MOISTURE TO
SOUTH TX. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF WARM BUT RATHER
DRY AIR UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM AS A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM FOCUSING ON THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A PASSING WING OF CI OVER THE AREA
LIKELY TO PASS TO THE EAST UNDER A DEVELOPING...MORE CONFLUENT MID
LEVEL FLOW. THIS POINTS TOWARD CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT...
WHICH ALONG WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DRY AIR SHOULD LEAD
TO DECOUPLING. HAVE THUS KEPT MINS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND COLDEST GUIDANCE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40
SOUTH.
SUNDAY LOOKS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPERATURES WARMING AT LEAST INTO THE
MID 60S OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
CLOUD COVER. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THICK CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF TX
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH CORRELATES WITH A LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND
850 TO 700 MB. THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS
MOISTURE N-NE INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COUNT ON THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT HEATING AND HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND WEST. WITHOUT THE CLOUDS...NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IA COULD
POTENTIALLY AGAIN REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN COLDER WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENT STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR MOVIE LOOPS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. STRONG
JET ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN PULLING INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW/STRONG SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL THEN TRACK INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT A VERY
NICE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RIGHT OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO THE DVN CWA
ON A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ON TUESDAY OF AROUND 1.50 INCHES. THIS WOULD BE
AT OR NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR NOVEMBER AND I DON`T SEE ANY REASON TO
DISAGREE CONSIDERING THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP.
THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN CWA. THIS RAIN WILL THEN BE WIDESPREAD OVER
ALL THE CWA ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING...TAPERING TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG
FORCING ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
SYSTEM/DYNAMICS LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS FOR SEVERAL DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH TO RAISE POPS
TO AT LEAST 80-90 PERCENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MODERATE TO STRONG
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
RAIN... BUT JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST
1-2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE CWA
ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM THEN LIFTS NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH THE RAIN ENDING ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...OPERATIONAL MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS
COLDER WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS THE AO/NAO ANOMALIES DIP NEGATIVE AND
THE PNA GOES POSITIVE. THIS FAVORS A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE UPPER
MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT ON THE EDGE OF THE COLD AIR AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING/PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY THIS FAR OUT.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
FIRST CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
NEXT 6 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS NOT FULLY
DECOUPLED WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING IN THE 7-11KT
RANGE...RADAR HAS BEEN OBSERVING 40-50KT WINDS AROUND 2K FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE RAP IS INDICATING THE WIND PATTERN WILL
STAY SIMILAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO HAVE LLWS IN
THE FORECAST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH 11-12Z. THERE WILL BE A FEW
HOURS WITH LESS WIND IMPACT...BUT UPON TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING /AROUND 15 OR 16Z/...EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS TO AROUND
20KTS FOR ALL TERMINALS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO HAVE BROKEN
VFR CEILINGS BY 03Z.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
321 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015
QUIET AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT STRONGER STORM SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET
AND VERY MILD BY MID-NOVEMBER STANDARDS. THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
TOWARD TUESDAY WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY FOR THE AREA. WE WILL SEE A
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS MOVE OVER THE
AREA BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE
HELPING TEMPS REACH AROUND 60 TODAY AND AGAIN ON MON.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON MON.
WE ARE EXPECTING THAT RAIN WILL HOLD OFF NOW UNTIL AFTER MON.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BELOW 10K FT THROUGH MON EVENING.
RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN LATE MON NIGHT ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND WILL MAX OUT TUE AFTERNOON FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FCST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP BEGINNING LATE
MON NIGHT AND WILL MAX OUT ON TUE AFTERNOON AS WE SEE A 60 KNOT LLJ
SURGE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SW. RIGHT NOW THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE MODELS TO SUPPORT A THUNDER MENTION AS THE
INSTABILITY STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED THOUGH IF THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY UNDER FORECASTING
THE THUNDER POTENTIAL GIVEN HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ADVECTING IN AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ AND UPPER DYNAMICS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE TIMING OF THE RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE SYSTEM AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE TRACKING THE MID LEVEL WAVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP GULF
MOISTURE SO THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. I LEFT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...HOWEVER THE HIGH RES EURO IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ACT TO DIMINISH
THE RAIN.
COLD AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH MOVES IN. THE GFS IS
TRACKING ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY. IMPACTS FROM SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE REGION NORTH OF A MUSKEGON TO MOUNT PLEASANT LINE
COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS. THE HIGH RES EURO IS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS POTENTIAL FEATURE...HOLDING OFF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
RW/SW IN THE FORECAST FOR THU NIGHT INTO SAT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
I CONTINUED THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE GRR VAD WIND PROFILE
SHOWS 45 KNOTS AT 2000 FT AT 0408Z. ALSO THE RAP MODEL SOUNDING AT
03Z SHOWS 38 KNOTS AT 1200 FT AGL AND 42 KNOTS AT 1800 AGL. ONCE
THE SUN COMES UP SUNDAY MORNING MIXING WILL END THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ISSUE. OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015
WE WILL BE HOLDING ON TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE. COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE STILL UP
AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO. WINDS ALOFT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE WINDS MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT
THE SFC DUE TO IT BEING A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. THIS WILL BE
THE CASE THROUGH MON NIGHT. WINDIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUE
THROUGH THU WITH THE NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT APPEARS POSSIBLE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
RIVER RISES CAN BE EXPECTED... AND SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS COULD APPROACH BANKFULL BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1129 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A MOIST AIR
MASS NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO... RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 60 EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUING IN THE SHORT TERM. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THESE ARE PRIMARILY
THIN AND WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMING IN BELOW
950 MB LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... ROUGHLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HOLLAND TO GRR TO ALMA. THIS COULD BE A HINT THAT SOME
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT... BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE BULK OF THE RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT
AMOUNTS MAY ARRIVE MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF GRR LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AT THE ONSET OF THIS EVENT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE. HIGHS UP NEAR 60 SUNDAY ALTHOUGH STILL BREEZY AND
THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
GRADIENT RELAXES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE TIGHTENING UP AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NNE FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR REGION BOTH DAYS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND BECOME MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS OUR AREA OF AROUND AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ON AVERAGE ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THIS TIME FRAME WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND AMPLE GULF MOISTURE.
FAIR AND COOLER WX WILL RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PCPN FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY IN THE FORM OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SOME COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
I CONTINUED THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE GRR VAD WIND PROFILE
SHOWS 45 KNOTS AT 2000 FT AT 0408Z. ALSO THE RAP MODEL SOUNDING AT
03Z SHOWS 38 KNOTS AT 1200 FT AGL AND 42 KNOTS AT 1800 AGL. ONCE
THE SUN COMES UP SUNDAY MORNING MIXING WILL END THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ISSUE. OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS BRING WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS
AND WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT APPEARS POSSIBLE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
RIVER RISES CAN BE EXPECTED... AND SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS COULD APPROACH BANKFULL BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE COOLER MORE MOIST 850MB AIR WILL INVADE
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND HOLD HIGHS TO AROUND
60F. AREAS WEST RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
TONIGHT...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE EAST OF HIGHWAY 61. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH UPPER 20S TO
NEAR 30 ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE NAM SHOWS DRIZZLE IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH FOG TO THE WEST TO
HIGHWAY 61.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS...THEN EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET BETTER ON TIMING...HOWEVER STILL OFF ON
TRACK. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE TRACK
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE EC
REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...WHICH
FAVORS COLDER TEMPS ABLE TO PUSH FURTHER EAST..THUS MORE SNOW OR
AT LEAST A MIX. OFTEN WITH CLASSIC LOWS LIKE THIS THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ENDS UP DIMINISHING THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. SURPRISINGLY THE NAM STILL ALLOWS PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WITH A LARGE SWATH WITH QPF AMOUNTS GREATER THAN AN
INCH. THE EC ALSO DROPS POCKETS WITH MORE THAN AN INCH. THE GFS
WITH THE FURTHER WEST TRACK DEVELOPS MORE CONVECTION AND LESS QPF
FOR THE CWA. ONE MORE CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. WHERE THERE IS SNOW...IT SHOULD BE WET AND NOT A
LOT OF BLOWING IS EXPECTED.
SYSTEM EXITS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND A CLIPPER
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR MORE OF
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE LAST SYSTEM ALSO FAVORED NORTHERN
NEB...HOWEVER 24 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVED OVERHEAD...IT JUMPED 100
MILES SOUTH AND IMPACTED THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP.
THUS CONTINUED LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS COLD WITH THIS CLIPPER...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED HIGHS AND LOWS FROM EARLIER
RUNS. WILL TREND FORECAST TEMPS DOWN...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED FURTHER IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH AND GO BELOW 30F...PATCHY FOG/MIST IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A BBW-LBF-OGA LINE. THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED...SO WE WILL NOT INCLUDE VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM IN THE LBF
TERMINAL FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. IN THE REST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA...UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1102 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 6Z TAFs, VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all
sites overnight as mid and high clouds continue to increase.
Chances for rainfall will increase during the day Sunday, becoming
prevailing at all sites by Sunday evening. Nonetheless, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/
UPDATE...
Some minor updates were made to the forecast based on the latest
trends. See discussion below.
DISCUSSION...
SW flow aloft prevails over the region this evening in the
southern branch of the westerlies. Weak warm advection has
produced showers and a few lightning strikes over western north
TX...and this activity is progged by the HRRR to move into NE OK
between 09z and 12z. Other activity is forecast to spread into SE
OK from TX as well. Have expanded pops north to cover portions of
NE OK. Will keep showers as the weather type...due to a lack of
instability.
Lacy
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 0Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail at all sites
overnight as high clouds continue to increase. Chances for
rainfall will increase during the day Sunday, with VFR conditions
continuing.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Critical fire weather conditions will continue for the next few
hours across areas generally along and northwest of Interstate 44.
No expansion in the Red Flag Warning will be necessary despite the
low humidities just on the south side of the current warning, as
wind speeds are beginning to decrease, remaining below thresholds.
Rain chances will begin to increase after midnight tonight from
north to south, as the lead wave and associated warm advection
move into the region in the developing southwest flow aloft. Low
moisture initially will limit how much rain reaches the ground
tomorrow, but should result in a good wet bulb effect on
temperatures.
A strong low level jet will develop across the region Sunday
night and into Monday morning, bringing a more substantial batch
of rain into the day Monday. With increased moisture, there will
also be a slight increase in the instability and resultant thunder
chances.
The best heavy rain and severe weather potential will arrive
Monday night and into Tuesday, primarily across southeast Oklahoma
and into northwest Arkansas. Instability will be greatly increased
due to the approach of the main upper level system. Widespread
thunderstorms will likely spread northward into the area ahead of
the dryline in response to the strengthening low level jet
overnight. Precipitable water in the region is forecast to be in
the 1.75 to 2 inch range, which is well above normal for mid to
late November, and more than supportive of efficient rainfall
rates, especially with convection likely to be involved. A Flash
Flood Watch may become necessary in the next day or so.
The dry slot will move into the area from west to east during the
day Tuesday, with substantial rainfall likely to end by late
Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening. The chance of additional
precipitation associated with the wraparound as the upper low
passes through is not zero, mainly across northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas, but will forgo POPs in favor of an increase in
cloud cover.
The next system of interest comes toward the end of next week and
into next weekend, with small rain chances associated with the
front that should move through Saturday. There remains uncertainty
around this system so expect fine tuning in this portion of the
forecast over the coming days.
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
315 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL NOVEMBER DAY IS IN STORE FOR REGION TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY THOUGH FOR THE WORK
WEEK. A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TODAY WITH
RIDGING OCCURRING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF
THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY SET TO
EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE REGION WITH THE FIRST SET TO
ARRIVE ON MONDAY. FOR TONIGHT...PLAN ON INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL MAINLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. THE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTERN ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE ONLY WEAK LIFT REMAINS IN ITS WAKE SO WE SHOULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL OR AT LEAST SEE THE LIGHT RAIN SWITCH
OVER TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE. THE NEXT WAVE SET TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WILL BE STRONGER AND BRING GULF MOISTURE WITH IT. A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS KANSAS/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
LIFTS NORTHWARD. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1 TO 1.3
RANGE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PUMPED INTO THE REGION WITH DEW
POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. IT APPEARS THAT
THE TIMEFRAME FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THIS PERIOD. ALSO
THINKING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME MAY NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH. MOST AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL AROUND 3/4
INCH OF RAINFALL WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN SEEING AROUND 1.5 INCHES...POSSIBLY MORE. THE
LOW THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
RACING EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COOL NORTHWEST FLOW THEN LOOKS TO BE
THE RULE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF BRINGS A SYSTEM ACROSS IOWA
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN NEXT SATURDAY BUT THIS IS ABSENT IN THE
GFS. THEY ARE BOTH ADVERTISING A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS TO LOCATION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE WEEK...HAVE LEANED TOWARD A MODEL
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
THE 15.00Z NAM AND 15.03Z RAP CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WIND SHEAR AT BOTH SITES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH A
30 KNOT SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOUT 1500 FEET
AND PLAN TO CONTINUE THIS THROUGH 12Z. MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING
TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND THIS LOOKS
TO CAUSE VFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1126 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM SAT NOV 14 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A
BROAD/FLATTENED MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS INCLUDING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. FLOW
ALOFT WAS TAPPING MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC RESULTING IN SPORADIC
BOUTS OF CIRRUS CLOUD ACROSS OUR AREA. OTHER THAN THAT...A VERY
QUIET/PLEASANT AUTUMN DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
MIDDLE 50S.
QUIET/PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE REGION.
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 10-12C
RANGE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
THINGS CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN EMBEDDED
WEAK TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM SAT NOV 14 2015
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY/DEFINITE MONDAY MORNING AS THAT MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...PERHAPS TAPERING OFF SOME IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF
THE BETTER FORCING OF THE WAVE. DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS MONDAY STILL LOOK TO TOP OFF IN THE
LOWER 50S OR SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO VERSUS RAIN AS MOISTURE PILES UP UNDER A
STRENGTHENING 850MB INVERSION. STILL LOOKS WET NONETHELESS.
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING STACKED MID-LEVEL/SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS...AND WITH VERY LIMITED 0-6KM MUCAPE...PERHAPS A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL
AS GULF MOISTURE CORRIDOR REMAINS WIDE OPEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1-1.25 INCH RANGE. TUESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARM AIR BEING PULLED IN AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW. LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE 50S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
RAIN CHANCE CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
NORTH INTO CANADA AND WRAP-AROUND/DEFORMATION MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE COLUMN MAY COOL ENOUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR PERHAPS SOME MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT APPEARS VERY LIGHT AS
THAT DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WANING PHASE.
SOME LINGERING MIXED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THURSDAY AS A WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...CHILLIER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN AS HIGHS
TOP OFF IN THE 40S.
ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR CONTINUED RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANCES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
MODELS SHOW A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY LOOK TO BE MIDDLE 30S TOT HE LOWER
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015
THE 15.00Z NAM AND 15.03Z RAP CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WIND SHEAR AT BOTH SITES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH A
30 KNOT SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOUT 1500 FEET
AND PLAN TO CONTINUE THIS THROUGH 12Z. MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING
TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND THIS LOOKS
TO CAUSE VFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
932 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015
.CURRENTLY...FAIRLY STRONG AND LARGE SFC HIGH PRES NOTED THIS
MORNING OVER ERN TN AT 1033 MB. FLOW ALOFT IS WLY WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSS THROUGH THE NE GULF...CONTINUING A
SPREAD OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF FL. LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS STRATOCU CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL IN THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH IMPACTED COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH BROKEN CU SO FAR IS
AROUND ST AUGUSTINE. NO ECHOES ON RADAR AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. PARTLY
TO OCNL MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO STRATO CU (FOR MAINLY ERN ZONES) AND
HIGH CLOUDS. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS ARE PROBABLY TOO BULLISH ON THE
POPS AND BRING IN SMALL BANDS OF SHOWERS LATER TODAY. THE HRRR ON
THE OTHER HAND IS DRIER AND SEEMS MORE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
CONDS. SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATER TODAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS BUT PROBABLY KEEP THE COASTAL LAND ZONES DRY AT THIS
TIME WITH 10% RAIN PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED WITH COASTAL TAFS SEEING SCT-
BKN CU AROUND 4000 FT. FOR GNV...MOSTLY FEW-SCT CU. OTHERWISE...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. JUST A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FOR
TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CHANCE FOR ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENT DATA AND MODEL INFORMATION INDICATES WE CAN
REMOVE THE SCA HEADLINE. WILL KEEP SCEC IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...WITH NEARSHORE JUST BELOW SCEC.
RIP CURRENTS: LATEST ESTIMATES ON SURF AROUND 2-4 FT. A MODERATE
RISK IS EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO PERSISTING ONSHORE
WINDS AND SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 50 74 59 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 69 58 74 64 / 10 10 10 20
JAX 73 57 78 64 / 10 10 10 20
SGJ 75 64 78 68 / 10 10 10 20
GNV 75 57 81 64 / 0 0 10 10
OCF 78 60 81 64 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/SHULER/COMBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
535 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE COOLER MORE MOIST 850MB AIR WILL INVADE
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND HOLD HIGHS TO AROUND
60F. AREAS WEST RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
TONIGHT...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE EAST OF HIGHWAY 61. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH UPPER 20S TO
NEAR 30 ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE NAM SHOWS DRIZZLE IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH FOG TO THE WEST TO
HIGHWAY 61.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS...THEN EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET BETTER ON TIMING...HOWEVER STILL OFF ON
TRACK. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE TRACK
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE EC
REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...WHICH
FAVORS COLDER TEMPS ABLE TO PUSH FURTHER EAST..THUS MORE SNOW OR
AT LEAST A MIX. OFTEN WITH CLASSIC LOWS LIKE THIS THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ENDS UP DIMINISHING THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. SURPRISINGLY THE NAM STILL ALLOWS PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WITH A LARGE SWATH WITH QPF AMOUNTS GREATER THAN AN
INCH. THE EC ALSO DROPS POCKETS WITH MORE THAN AN INCH. THE GFS
WITH THE FURTHER WEST TRACK DEVELOPS MORE CONVECTION AND LESS QPF
FOR THE CWA. ONE MORE CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. WHERE THERE IS SNOW...IT SHOULD BE WET AND NOT A
LOT OF BLOWING IS EXPECTED.
SYSTEM EXITS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND A CLIPPER
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR MORE OF
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE LAST SYSTEM ALSO FAVORED NORTHERN
NEB...HOWEVER 24 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVED OVERHEAD...IT JUMPED 100
MILES SOUTH AND IMPACTED THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP.
THUS CONTINUED LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS COLD WITH THIS CLIPPER...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED HIGHS AND LOWS FROM EARLIER
RUNS. WILL TREND FORECAST TEMPS DOWN...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED FURTHER IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
NO FOG HAS FORMED YET BUT SATELLITE SHOWS FOG FORMING OVER WRN KS
AT 1130Z. FOG MAY FORM FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS SWRN
NEB.
STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD FROM FROM 06Z ONWARD TONIGHT...PERHAPS
SOONER...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 61 WITH IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
956 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD...AND
SKY COVER THROUGH 2ND PERIOD BASED ON FIRST PERIOD CHANGES.
OVERLLL THE FORECAST IS NOT IN TOO BAD OF SHAPE. THERE ARE SOME
VERY VERY WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR (AND I DO MEAN VERY VERY WEAK) AND
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH IN THE THIS CASE
THESE ARE TOO LIGHT TO BE PICKED UP BY KCRP RADAR (KCOT REPORTED
LIGHT RAIN EARLIER). HRRR IS SHOWING PERHAPS SOME WEAK ACTIVITY
LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS...SO THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
MAINTAINED A MENTION OF RAIN ALTHOUGH FOR NOW WILL ONLY KEEP THE
20 POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST MORE PROXIMATE TO THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH. COULD HAVE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AM DECREASING CLOUDS
THERE...WITH CLOUDS RETURNING LATER THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY AREA-WIDE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A MENTION
OF FOG AS ANY FOG WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR MENTIONING IN THE
ZONE/PUBLIC FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO PICK UP.
WILL MONTIOR BOB HALL PIER ONCE AGAIN FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW. LEVELS ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT
WINDS AND SWELLS ARE WEAKER AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A VERY BRIEF 2 FOOT LEVEL THERE
BUT FEELING IS THAT THE TIDES WILL BE JUST A TAD BELOW THAT.
AGAIN...WILL MONITOR.
OVERALL SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PARAMETERS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS. MARINE PACKAGE OVERALL WAS
FINE. PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ONLY PREVAIL AT LRD THIS MORNING...WITH OVC
DECKS BETWEEN 3500 AND 5 KFT AT ALI/VCT/CRP. ANTICIPATE LRD TO
REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CIGS MAY RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE PERIOD AT THE ALI/CRP/VCT
TERMINALS. POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF SOME IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT
VCT/ALI ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS. NE WINDS THIS MORE WILL BECOME
MORE ESE/SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALI/CRP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TODAY
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL REMAIN ONLY AROUND 20
PERCENT. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...AVERAGING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA.
STREAMER SHOWERS OFF THE GULF WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
WILL CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS THE WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES. ON
MONDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PW/S CLIMBING
TO AROUND 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA. FARTHER TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...CAPPING MAY BE TOO MUCH TO
OVERCOME. POPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT NEAR VICTORIA TO
NON MENTIONABLE NEAR LAREDO. IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT...TEMPS
ON MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE NORTH.
BOB HALL PIER BRIEFLY REACHED 2 FEET MSL DURING HIGH TIDE ON
SATURDAY DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER SWELLS. POSSIBILITY
EXISTS THAT 2 FEET MSL COULD BE REACHED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THIS...WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AS
CRITERIA MAY ONLY OCCUR FOR A BRIEF. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BY DAY SHIFT AND ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH A DEEPENING POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGGING ALONG THE ROCKIES AND PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD S TX MON NIGHT AND ACROSS S TX TUE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL BE ENTERING INTO THE NW CWA AROUND 12Z
TUE...REACHING THE COAST BETWEEN 16-18Z AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY MID AFTERNOON OR SO. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING BUT ONLY BY A FEW HOURS. AHD OF THE
BDRY...MOISTURE IS PROGD TO DEEPEN WITH THE GFS PROGGING NEAR 2
INCH PWATS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE... UPPER JET/DIFFLUENCE...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND SHEAR COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO SVR STORMS TUE MORNING. THE
CAVEAT WILL BE A STRONG LLJ THAT IS ALSO PROGD TO DVLP...WHICH
BRINGS IN VERY WARM LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STRENGTHENS THE CAP
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST RUNS SHOW THIS CAP DVLPG ALL THE WAY NE
INTO THE VCT AREA. THE CAP IS PROGD TO WEAKEN AS THE BDRY PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE GFS SHOWS THE 850MB FRONT LAGGING BEHIND
THE SFC FRONT BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR SVR STORMS TO DVLP...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE CWA WHERE CAP
IS ALREADY WEAKER. AM EXPECTING THAT AS THE BDRY APPROACHES THE
COAST...STORMS WILL STRENGTHEN FARTHER S ALONG THE
LINE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MARINE ZONES WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
STRONGEST AND LITTLE CAP. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NE CWA FOR DAY 3/TUE. WILL NOT MENTION SVR
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY OF HOW STRONG
THE CAP WILL BE THUS HINDERING STORM DVLPMNT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 71 85 76 79 / 10 10 20 20 50
VICTORIA 77 67 81 72 73 / 10 20 50 50 80
LAREDO 79 68 88 70 76 / 10 10 10 20 10
ALICE 82 68 87 73 79 / 10 10 20 20 40
ROCKPORT 77 72 80 74 76 / 10 20 30 30 70
COTULLA 75 67 84 62 73 / 20 10 20 50 20
KINGSVILLE 83 70 87 75 79 / 10 10 20 20 40
NAVY CORPUS 79 73 82 76 78 / 10 20 20 20 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT MAINLY
FROM TUCSON EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY...WITH VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SOUTHWEST OF THE TUCSON METRO
AREA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE ALSO DETECTED FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NWRN
SONORA MEXICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SHOWERS THAT OCCUR MAINLY
BEFORE SUNRISE WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCH IN THE VALLEYS... AND
WERE AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A GAUGE ON
MT LEMMON RECORDED 0.39 INCH OF RAINFALL.
SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS THE 15/12Z NAM AND THE 15/06Z UNIV
OF AZ WRF-NAM DEPICT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO OCCUR INTO TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE SWRN CONUS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORT MAX MOVING SEWD AND APPROACHING THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST AT THIS TIME. A SERIES OF IMPULSES ALOFT WILL THEN
CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVER ARIZONA BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A 542 DM
LOW TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MIDDAY MON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
PROGGED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOPS TODAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5-
15 DEGS COOLER VERSUS SAT DEPENDING UPON LOCATION.
THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 16/18Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL OCCUR FROM KTUS VICINITY EAST TO
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO MONDAY MORNING. ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA WILL
PREVAIL WEST OF KTUS THRU THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA EXISTS
MAINLY FROM KTUS EAST AND SOUTH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
CLOUD DECKS WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM 5K-10K FT MSL. SURFACE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE SELY TO SWLY AT 5-15
KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR INTO MONDAY
MORNING MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THERE IS
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL OCCUR MONDAY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ABOVE 7000 FEET. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /235 AM MST/...MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SECOND MORE STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE STATE. THIS FEATURE WAS DIGGING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THIS MORNING. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES INTO THE
STATE. SO MAY SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
PICKING UP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE A
RATHER RAW DAY WITH MUCH COOLER HIGHS ALONG WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CRASHING DOWN INTO THE 4300-
5300 FOOT LEVEL MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF VALUES FOR THIS MULTI-DAY EVENT WILL RANGE
LESS 0.10" OVER WRN/CNTRL PIMA COUNTY TO 0.65" IN THE VALLEYS EAST
OF TUCSON. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. SINCE THE
INITIAL MTN QPF WILL BE LIQUID TODAY...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 3"-7" IN THE WHITES WITH 1-3" ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE SKY ISLANDS.
ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS MONDAY EVENING...FOCUS WILL TURN TO MUCH
COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE CONCERNED
WITH AREAS OF FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AS NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS
TO CONSIDER.
COLD AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
422 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015
.CURRENTLY...SFC HIGH PRES IS DIRECTLY N OF THE REGION OVER SC AND
NC. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ONSHORE FLOW ARE RESULTING
IN A MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCU DECK OVER ERN PORTIONS OF NE FL WITH
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HINTS OF POSSIBLE
LIGHT SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT NO SHOWERS TO
SPEAK OF ATTM. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 40S N TO LOWER 60S S. NE TO E WINDS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY
THIS TIME BUT STILL BREEZY AT THE COAST NEAR 15 MPH.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES TO OUR N WILL NOT MOVE MUCH WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT N DRAINAGE FLOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROUGH OFFSHORE. MODELS STILL INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SMALL SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE GENERAL OUTLOOK
REMAINING THE SAME. HRRR SHOWING JUST A FEW SMALL SHOWERS AND THE
NMM/ARW INDICATING AT LEAST ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE OVER THE MARINE
WATERS. WILL GO WITH ISOLD SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND NO
PRECIP MENTION FOR THE LAND ZONES. SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FROM
FLAGLER TO DUVAL COUNTIES. WITH MODERATING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND
OCNL STRATOCU CLOUDS TEMPS NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER INLAND AND SIMILAR LOWS NEAR THE COAST AS THIS MORNING.
MONDAY...MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY THOUGH WITH MUCH LESS HIGH
CLOUDINESS AS THE PAST 24 HRS AS AN UPPER LEVEL MOVES E OF THE
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL 20% POP FOR THE MARINE WATERS AND
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE WEAK COASTAL TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AROUND THE 295-300K SFC. MAX TEMPS CERTAIN TO BE WARMER
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...AND LOWER 80S S ZONES.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL PROMOTE
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPP 60S AND LOWER
70S...WHICH WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS BUT MID LEVEL DRY
AIR SHOULD KEEP THIS IN CHECK.
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH MAY SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT TO SUPPORT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
INLAND BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AREA WIDE BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER AND MORE PERSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE TIMING OF THE PREFRONTAL RAIN. THIS TRANSLATES
TO THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BEGIN
TO WIND DOWN ACROSS SE GA BY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL REACH NE FL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN WINDING DOWN ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THURSDAY EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT SLOWS TO A CRAWL.
OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS
EXPECTED...NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED WITH COASTAL TERMINALS SEEING BKN
CIGS AROUND 4500 FT WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FOR GNV. FOR
TONIGHT...HAVE BKN CIGS STICKING AROUND FOR SSI AND SGJ BUT FEW-
SCT ELSEWHERE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS FOR TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY TEMPO
GROUPS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE MONDAY MORNING TO
AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE ENE WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING A BIT LOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO
BUT STILL SCEC HEADLINE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA MON AND MON NIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TUE THROUGH WED AS PRES GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS AS COASTAL TROUGHING DISSIPATES AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. AN SCA HEADLINE LOOKS PROBABLE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WED EVENING. FRONTAL PASSAGE FCST FOR WED NIGHT
INTO EARLY THU.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO PERSISTING ONSHORE WINDS AND SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 51 76 57 78 / 10 0 10 10
SSI 58 73 63 75 / 10 10 20 30
JAX 58 77 62 81 / 10 10 10 10
SGJ 65 78 67 81 / 20 20 20 20
GNV 58 81 62 84 / 10 10 10 10
OCF 61 82 63 84 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/SHULER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
317 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON HAS PROVIDED CLEAR
SKIES TO MOST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST AND
CAUSES THE UPPER FLOW TO BACK TO SOUTHERLY. A SMALL AREA OF CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF DULUTH/SUPERIOR HAD SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS SINCE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN
COVERAGE. THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THE CLOUD WILL DIMINISH...BUT
EARLIER RUNS OF THE RAP INDICATED THE CLOUD WILL BE ABOUT GONE BY
NOW...BUT THAT HAS NOT OCCURRED. WE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THE
HEAD OF THE LAKE...THEN INCREASE ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT.
A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO
AROUND 0.75 INCHES OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA...THEN TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH
BY 00Z TUESDAY. THESE VALUES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUE REPORTED AT KINL ON NOVEMBER 16 OF 0.79
INCHES. WE EXPECT FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS
WELL...MAINLY LATE.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR CWA. WE ADDED
THE MENTION OF FOG TO ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT EXPECT IT TO
BE MOST WIDESPREAD AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A HALF
INCH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 IN THE ARROWHEAD AND TO
AROUND 40 FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
RISE LATE AS CLOUDS THICKEN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
FORTIES TO AROUND FIFTY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
N/NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A NEARLY CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG WAA IN THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH BROAD LARGE-SCALE LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LOW AND AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...PWATS AROUND
1 INCH...WILL ALLOW FOR AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS
TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
WEAK...BUT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. TWO WAVES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 100-
200 J/KG WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE REGION TUES AND WED...AND HELP
TRIGGER THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS.
AS THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH NRN MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED A
SECONDARY LOW FROM THE NW WILL PHASE WITH THE PARENT LOW AND ALSO
DRAW DOWN A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS TO CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE NE ACROSS ONTARIO WED
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT BE LACKING OF MOISTURE AND ONLY
BE CAPABLE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. AT THIS MOMENT IT
APPEARS ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MAY SEE AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES. THE PERSISTENT COLD NWLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
THE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 40S. THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THE AMT OF NIGHT
TIME COOLING. HOWEVER...THE COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. WILL SEE A PUSH OF
COOL MOIST MARINE AIR OFF THE LAKE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
A DECK OF LOW IFR CEILINGS INTO THE DLH TERMINAL AROUND OR JUST
AFTER 00Z. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT HIB THIS EVENING AS THE PUSH
CONTINUES WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...AN INCOMING WAVE FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
AND PRODUCE A LAYER OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VSBYS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 48 45 49 / 30 90 70 100
INL 36 49 45 49 / 10 60 70 80
BRD 42 51 47 51 / 20 70 80 90
HYR 38 51 45 51 / 20 70 70 100
ASX 36 52 44 53 / 20 70 70 90
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1148 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE COOLER MORE MOIST 850MB AIR WILL INVADE
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND HOLD HIGHS TO AROUND
60F. AREAS WEST RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
TONIGHT...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE EAST OF HIGHWAY 61. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH UPPER 20S TO
NEAR 30 ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE NAM SHOWS DRIZZLE IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH FOG TO THE WEST TO
HIGHWAY 61.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS...THEN EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET BETTER ON TIMING...HOWEVER STILL OFF ON
TRACK. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE TRACK
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE EC
REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...WHICH
FAVORS COLDER TEMPS ABLE TO PUSH FURTHER EAST..THUS MORE SNOW OR
AT LEAST A MIX. OFTEN WITH CLASSIC LOWS LIKE THIS THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ENDS UP DIMINISHING THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. SURPRISINGLY THE NAM STILL ALLOWS PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WITH A LARGE SWATH WITH QPF AMOUNTS GREATER THAN AN
INCH. THE EC ALSO DROPS POCKETS WITH MORE THAN AN INCH. THE GFS
WITH THE FURTHER WEST TRACK DEVELOPS MORE CONVECTION AND LESS QPF
FOR THE CWA. ONE MORE CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. WHERE THERE IS SNOW...IT SHOULD BE WET AND NOT A
LOT OF BLOWING IS EXPECTED.
SYSTEM EXITS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND A CLIPPER
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR MORE OF
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE LAST SYSTEM ALSO FAVORED NORTHERN
NEB...HOWEVER 24 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVED OVERHEAD...IT JUMPED 100
MILES SOUTH AND IMPACTED THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP.
THUS CONTINUED LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS COLD WITH THIS CLIPPER...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED HIGHS AND LOWS FROM EARLIER
RUNS. WILL TREND FORECAST TEMPS DOWN...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED FURTHER IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
AN AREA OF MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS ARE BUILDING NORTH FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY TAKES
IT ACROSS KLBF...OR JUST EAST OF KLBF BY 20Z. THE WESTERN EDGE IS
ERODING SLIGHTLY...SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SKIES VFR AT
KLBF TODAY. UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED HOWEVER. OTHERWISE A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON
MONDAY AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH OF THE APPROACHING LOW. STRATUS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AT KLBF AND
POSSIBLY KVTN AFTER 09Z. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THE LOCATION AND THE
AMOUNT OF LOWER CEILINGS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
257 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
FOG TONIGHT AND A COOLER MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY FIELDS FROM THE 12 AND 18 UTC 4KM NAM
NEST AND THE 18-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12 UTC GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON PROPAGATING NORTH AND BEGINNING TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 07-09 UTC TONIGHT. MAINTAINED THE FOG
MENTION IN THE GRIDS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS NEEDED GIVEN THE SIGNAL IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION
VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MONDAY...AFTER A VERY MILD SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES FOR MOST FIELDS MONDAY WITH
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 40S WEST...AND 50S CENTRAL.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOG AND STRATUS IMPACTS MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT FROM THE CONSENSUS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LONG TERM INCLUDE OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...A COOLING TREND...AND WINDY CONDITIONS MID-WEEK.
BY MONDAY EVENING THERE IS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FRONT RANGE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER COLORADO. THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST AS THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...BLENDING
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA. THESE SCENARIOS TRANSLATE TO
A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE
AREA...ARRIVING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
PUSHING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN THE EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE
STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AS A SHORT WAVE LIFTS THROUGH SPLIT FLOW AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN - ESPECIALLY THE JAMES
VALLEY - AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
FOR TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...THOUGH STILL REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...WITH A WINTRY
MIX POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLDER AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO THE VALLEY.
ON WEDNESDAY...A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT DIVES THROUGH THE AREA.
STRONG WINDS ARE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE MIXING 50KT WINDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-DAY.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS EVOLVES. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MANY PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH MAINLY
RAIN DURING THE DAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IT THE WAKE OF THE STRONG WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT...WITH A FEW
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR TO FOLLOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES...WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN STRATUS/FOG AT
KJMS TONIGHT BY 07-09 UTC TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS TO KMOT/KBIS. KISN
MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED BY STRATUS LATE MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER
STRATUS DECK MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. KDIK LOOKS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH 18 UTC MONDAY...HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
102 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...SWELLS HAVE GONE UP DRAMATICALLY TO FEET AND 8
SECOND PERIODS...WHICH PUTS AREA IN HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AGAIN.
THUS...WILL ISSUE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. ALTHOUGH THE TIDES MAY
NOT MAKE IT TO 2 FEET AT BOB HALL PIER...IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE SO
WILL NOT WAIT AND JUST GO WITH IT ESPECIALLY SINCE SWELLS HAVE
GONE UP SO MUCH. COULD HAVE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AGAIN ON MONDAY
SO WILL PUT IT OUT TIL THEN AND LET MID SHIFT DECIDE WHAT TO DO.
PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...AM EXPECTING NEAR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 16/01Z
AT KLRD...ALTHOUGH COULD GO TEMPO BEFORE THAT. ALSO...WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EXPECTED AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING TIL ABOUT
06Z...AM PUTTING A TEMPO -RA THERE. IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KLRD TOWARD
MORNING BUT GOING BACK TO MVFR ABOUT 15Z. FARTHER EAST (OTHER 3
TERMINALS)...AM NOT EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP UNTIL
NEAR OR AFTER 16/06Z...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AT TIMES AT KALI AND
KVCT BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. ALSO INCLUDED A VCSH AT KVCT FOR MONDAY.
CONCERNING WIND...AM EXPECTING THEM TO BE ESE FOR THE MOST PART
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN THEY ARE MORE SE/SSE AND HIGH IN SPEEDS.
FINALLY...COULD HAVE SOME MVFR BR AT KALI AND KVCT AFTER 16/06Z
BUT BEFORE 16/15Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD...AND
SKY COVER THROUGH 2ND PERIOD BASED ON FIRST PERIOD CHANGES.
OVERLLL THE FORECAST IS NOT IN TOO BAD OF SHAPE. THERE ARE SOME
VERY VERY WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR (AND I DO MEAN VERY VERY WEAK) AND
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH IN THE THIS CASE
THESE ARE TOO LIGHT TO BE PICKED UP BY KCRP RADAR (KCOT REPORTED
LIGHT RAIN EARLIER). HRRR IS SHOWING PERHAPS SOME WEAK ACTIVITY
LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS...SO THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
MAINTAINED A MENTION OF RAIN ALTHOUGH FOR NOW WILL ONLY KEEP THE
20 POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST MORE PROXIMATE TO THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH. COULD HAVE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AM DECREASING CLOUDS
THERE...WITH CLOUDS RETURNING LATER THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY AREA-WIDE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A MENTION
OF FOG AS ANY FOG WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR MENTIONING IN THE
ZONE/PUBLIC FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO PICK UP.
WILL MONTIOR BOB HALL PIER ONCE AGAIN FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW. LEVELS ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT
WINDS AND SWELLS ARE WEAKER AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A VERY BRIEF 2 FOOT LEVEL THERE
BUT FEELING IS THAT THE TIDES WILL BE JUST A TAD BELOW THAT.
AGAIN...WILL MONITOR.
OVERALL SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PARAMETERS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS. MARINE PACKAGE OVERALL WAS
FINE. PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ONLY PREVAIL AT LRD THIS MORNING...WITH OVC
DECKS BETWEEN 3500 AND 5 KFT AT ALI/VCT/CRP. ANTICIPATE LRD TO
REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CIGS MAY RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE PERIOD AT THE ALI/CRP/VCT
TERMINALS. POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF SOME IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT
VCT/ALI ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS. NE WINDS THIS MORE WILL BECOME
MORE ESE/SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALI/CRP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TODAY
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL REMAIN ONLY AROUND 20
PERCENT. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...AVERAGING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA.
STREAMER SHOWERS OFF THE GULF WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
WILL CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS THE WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES. ON
MONDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PW/S CLIMBING
TO AROUND 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA. FARTHER TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...CAPPING MAY BE TOO MUCH TO
OVERCOME. POPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT NEAR VICTORIA TO
NON MENTIONABLE NEAR LAREDO. IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT...TEMPS
ON MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE NORTH.
BOB HALL PIER BRIEFLY REACHED 2 FEET MSL DURING HIGH TIDE ON
SATURDAY DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER SWELLS. POSSIBILITY
EXISTS THAT 2 FEET MSL COULD BE REACHED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THIS...WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AS
CRITERIA MAY ONLY OCCUR FOR A BRIEF. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BY DAY SHIFT AND ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH A DEEPENING POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGGING ALONG THE ROCKIES AND PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD S TX MON NIGHT AND ACROSS S TX TUE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL BE ENTERING INTO THE NW CWA AROUND 12Z
TUE...REACHING THE COAST BETWEEN 16-18Z AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY MID AFTERNOON OR SO. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING BUT ONLY BY A FEW HOURS. AHD OF THE
BDRY...MOISTURE IS PROGD TO DEEPEN WITH THE GFS PROGGING NEAR 2
INCH PWATS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE... UPPER JET/DIFFLUENCE...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND SHEAR COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO SVR STORMS TUE MORNING. THE
CAVEAT WILL BE A STRONG LLJ THAT IS ALSO PROGD TO DVLP...WHICH
BRINGS IN VERY WARM LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STRENGTHENS THE CAP
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST RUNS SHOW THIS CAP DVLPG ALL THE WAY NE
INTO THE VCT AREA. THE CAP IS PROGD TO WEAKEN AS THE BDRY PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE GFS SHOWS THE 850MB FRONT LAGGING BEHIND
THE SFC FRONT BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR SVR STORMS TO DVLP...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE CWA WHERE CAP
IS ALREADY WEAKER. AM EXPECTING THAT AS THE BDRY APPROACHES THE
COAST...STORMS WILL STRENGTHEN FARTHER S ALONG THE
LINE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MARINE ZONES WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
STRONGEST AND LITTLE CAP. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NE CWA FOR DAY 3/TUE. WILL NOT MENTION SVR
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY OF HOW STRONG
THE CAP WILL BE THUS HINDERING STORM DVLPMNT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 71 83 75 79 / 10 10 20 20 50
VICTORIA 77 67 81 72 73 / 10 20 50 50 80
LAREDO 79 68 87 68 76 / 10 10 10 20 10
ALICE 82 68 87 73 79 / 10 10 20 20 40
ROCKPORT 77 69 80 74 76 / 10 20 30 30 70
COTULLA 75 66 83 64 73 / 20 10 20 50 20
KINGSVILLE 83 70 87 74 79 / 10 10 20 20 40
NAVY CORPUS 79 73 82 75 78 / 10 20 20 20 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1156 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...AM EXPECTING NEAR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 16/01Z
AT KLRD...ALTHOUGH COULD GO TEMPO BEFORE THAT. ALSO...WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EXPECTED AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING TIL ABOUT
06Z...AM PUTTING A TEMPO -RA THERE. IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KLRD TOWARD
MORNING BUT GOING BACK TO MVFR ABOUT 15Z. FARTHER EAST (OTHER 3
TERMINALS)...AM NOT EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP UNTIL
NEAR OR AFTER 16/06Z...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AT TIMES AT KALI AND
KVCT BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. ALSO INCLUDED A VCSH AT KVCT FOR MONDAY.
CONCERNING WIND...AM EXPECTING THEM TO BE ESE FOR THE MOST PART
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN THEY ARE MORE SE/SSE AND HIGH IN SPEEDS.
FINALLY...COULD HAVE SOME MVFR BR AT KALI AND KVCT AFTER 16/06Z
BUT BEFORE 16/15Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD...AND
SKY COVER THROUGH 2ND PERIOD BASED ON FIRST PERIOD CHANGES.
OVERLLL THE FORECAST IS NOT IN TOO BAD OF SHAPE. THERE ARE SOME
VERY VERY WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR (AND I DO MEAN VERY VERY WEAK) AND
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH IN THE THIS CASE
THESE ARE TOO LIGHT TO BE PICKED UP BY KCRP RADAR (KCOT REPORTED
LIGHT RAIN EARLIER). HRRR IS SHOWING PERHAPS SOME WEAK ACTIVITY
LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS...SO THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
MAINTAINED A MENTION OF RAIN ALTHOUGH FOR NOW WILL ONLY KEEP THE
20 POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST MORE PROXIMATE TO THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH. COULD HAVE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AM DECREASING CLOUDS
THERE...WITH CLOUDS RETURNING LATER THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY AREA-WIDE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A MENTION
OF FOG AS ANY FOG WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR MENTIONING IN THE
ZONE/PUBLIC FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO PICK UP.
WILL MONTIOR BOB HALL PIER ONCE AGAIN FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW. LEVELS ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT
WINDS AND SWELLS ARE WEAKER AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A VERY BRIEF 2 FOOT LEVEL THERE
BUT FEELING IS THAT THE TIDES WILL BE JUST A TAD BELOW THAT.
AGAIN...WILL MONITOR.
OVERALL SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PARAMETERS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS. MARINE PACKAGE OVERALL WAS
FINE. PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ONLY PREVAIL AT LRD THIS MORNING...WITH OVC
DECKS BETWEEN 3500 AND 5 KFT AT ALI/VCT/CRP. ANTICIPATE LRD TO
REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CIGS MAY RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE PERIOD AT THE ALI/CRP/VCT
TERMINALS. POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF SOME IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT
VCT/ALI ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS. NE WINDS THIS MORE WILL BECOME
MORE ESE/SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALI/CRP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TODAY
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL REMAIN ONLY AROUND 20
PERCENT. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...AVERAGING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA.
STREAMER SHOWERS OFF THE GULF WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
WILL CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS THE WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES. ON
MONDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PW/S CLIMBING
TO AROUND 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA. FARTHER TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...CAPPING MAY BE TOO MUCH TO
OVERCOME. POPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT NEAR VICTORIA TO
NON MENTIONABLE NEAR LAREDO. IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT...TEMPS
ON MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE NORTH.
BOB HALL PIER BRIEFLY REACHED 2 FEET MSL DURING HIGH TIDE ON
SATURDAY DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER SWELLS. POSSIBILITY
EXISTS THAT 2 FEET MSL COULD BE REACHED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THIS...WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AS
CRITERIA MAY ONLY OCCUR FOR A BRIEF. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BY DAY SHIFT AND ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH A DEEPENING POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGGING ALONG THE ROCKIES AND PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD S TX MON NIGHT AND ACROSS S TX TUE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL BE ENTERING INTO THE NW CWA AROUND 12Z
TUE...REACHING THE COAST BETWEEN 16-18Z AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY MID AFTERNOON OR SO. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING BUT ONLY BY A FEW HOURS. AHD OF THE
BDRY...MOISTURE IS PROGD TO DEEPEN WITH THE GFS PROGGING NEAR 2
INCH PWATS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE... UPPER JET/DIFFLUENCE...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND SHEAR COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO SVR STORMS TUE MORNING. THE
CAVEAT WILL BE A STRONG LLJ THAT IS ALSO PROGD TO DVLP...WHICH
BRINGS IN VERY WARM LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STRENGTHENS THE CAP
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST RUNS SHOW THIS CAP DVLPG ALL THE WAY NE
INTO THE VCT AREA. THE CAP IS PROGD TO WEAKEN AS THE BDRY PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE GFS SHOWS THE 850MB FRONT LAGGING BEHIND
THE SFC FRONT BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR SVR STORMS TO DVLP...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE CWA WHERE CAP
IS ALREADY WEAKER. AM EXPECTING THAT AS THE BDRY APPROACHES THE
COAST...STORMS WILL STRENGTHEN FARTHER S ALONG THE
LINE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MARINE ZONES WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
STRONGEST AND LITTLE CAP. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NE CWA FOR DAY 3/TUE. WILL NOT MENTION SVR
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY OF HOW STRONG
THE CAP WILL BE THUS HINDERING STORM DVLPMNT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 71 85 76 79 / 10 10 20 20 50
VICTORIA 77 67 81 72 73 / 10 20 50 50 80
LAREDO 79 68 88 70 76 / 10 10 10 20 10
ALICE 82 68 87 73 79 / 10 10 20 20 40
ROCKPORT 77 72 80 74 76 / 10 20 30 30 70
COTULLA 75 67 84 62 73 / 20 10 20 50 20
KINGSVILLE 83 70 87 75 79 / 10 10 20 20 40
NAVY CORPUS 79 73 82 76 78 / 10 20 20 20 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION