Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/14/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

350 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS DOWN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION
SATURDAY AND REMAINS INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS CLEARS MONTAUK BY 330 PM. THAT LEAVES SOME
DRIZZLE (NON-MEASURABLE/NO POP) UNTIL THE COLD FRONT GETS HERE.

THERE ARE SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL PA NORTH TO
KROC. LATEST HRRR (18Z) SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO TRACK ALONG
WITH THE FRONT PASSING ACROSS NORTH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
FORM 01-04Z. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF AND PASS QUICKLY.

WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM THE WSW.

TEMPS DROP OFF IN TO THE 40S. USED THE WARMER NAM MOS DUE TO THE
LARGE AMOUNT OF MIXING EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN STORY IS THE W WINDS THAT GUSTS INTO THE 30S MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.

UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY EVENING WITH FREEZING LEVELS DOWN
TO 1500` MSL. THUS...A FEW FLAKES DO NOT SEEM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE INTERIOR HILLS FROM SOME STRATOCU, BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS IN THE MID 50S ON FRIDAY FALL INTO THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT
(EXCEPT A FEW PARTS OF NYC).

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. THE GFS AND NAM WERE
BEST WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS AND TIMING. FOR SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE MIXING WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT
FROM 850 MB. THE COOLER AIR DOES NOT LINGER AS WARM ADVECTION SETS
UP FOR SUNDAY...AND THE AIRMASS ALSO MODIFIES.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
UNCERTAINTIES BEGIN TO BE MANIFEST IN THE GUIDANCE WITH HOW QUICKLY
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE USED THE WPC
GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY TONIGHT. A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS ARE
MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...BUT THESE
SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING...WITH IFR AT KHPN AND
KGON...BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

S-SE WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING. A LOW LEVEL JET OF
AROUND 40 KT AT 2KFT COMES IN TONIGHT AS WELL.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY OCCUR 1-2
HOURS EARLIER.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY OCCUR 1-2
HOURS EARLIER.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY OCCUR 1-2
HOURS EARLIER.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY OCCUR 1-2
HOURS EARLIER.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY OCCUR 1-2
HOURS EARLIER.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY OCCUR 1-2
HOURS EARLIER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTN...VFR. W WINDS G25-35KT.
.SAT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT...DIMINISHING LATE EVENING.
.SUN-TUE...VFR.

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A WESTERLY GALE.
WITH WILL VEER FROM SOUTH TO WSW WITH THE FROPA. GUSTS OF 30-35
KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN STRONG FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALONG WITH CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
MIXING OF STRONGER WIND ALOFT TO MIX TO THE WATER. GALE FORCE GUSTS
WILL REMAIN ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS INTO SATURDAY. COLD ADVECTION
AND WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAKENING DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
GUSTS MAY FALL BELOW GALE FORCE ON THE LONG ISLAND SOUND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL EXTEND THE GALE WARNING ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ON ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE OCEAN SATURDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
GUSTS COULD REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

LATER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

FINALLY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL FALL BELOW 5 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST WATERS.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DO NOT EXPECT BLOW OUT TIDES TOMORROW OR SATURDAY...BUT TIDES
WILL BE ABOUT A FOOT LOWER THAN ASTRONOMICAL.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...FEB/JM
MARINE...MET/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...MET/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1122 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...THEN
TRACKS DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FOR THE START OF THE
NEW WEEK...THEN DEPARTS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ENE AT ALMOST 100 MPH!

BACK END OF THIS PCPN CLEARS THE NY METRO BY NOON AND EASTERN LI
AROUND 1 PM. HRRR CONTINUES TO LAG BEHIND IN TIMING...EXPECT JUST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE ACTIVITY. HAVE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS SCENARIO...100 GOING TO 40.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE INCREASING W WINDS BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...WITH GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH TONIGHT AND 25-40 MPH FRIDAY.
THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND...AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. FOR THESE WINDS...LEANED
TOWARDS STRONGER GFS 950 HPA WINDS...AS WHILE TYPICALLY OVER
DONE...IT DOES TEND TO FARE BETTER IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY WIDESPREAD AREAS
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 TO MAYBE EVEN 50 MPH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT.

ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER AROUND EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR NOW GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY...AS A WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM 700-500 HPA RIDGE TRANSITS THE AREA.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH READINGS AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL EXPECTED. A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 850-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...AND THEN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE DOMINATED
BY HIGH PRES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.

NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO
DEPART AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL STRONG H5 SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE H5 LOW AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STAY NORTH OF THE REGION...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES...OR EVEN SOME FLURRIES...FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR NW INTERIOR ZONES. A GUSTY NW FLOW OF 15-20 MPH
WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS WILL USHER UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AS HIGHS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE WIND CHILL WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S DURING THE DAY.

SFC HIGH PRES WITH UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR
SUNDAY. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THE HIGH THEN MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BEFORE SLOWLY DEPARTING
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH...TEMPS WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 60.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BUMP UP POPS TO CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES TONIGHT. SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...LOCALLY BELOW
IFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IFR COULD
VERY WELL EXTEND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS.
IMPROVEMENT OCCURS TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SE WINDS NEAR 10 KT WILL START GUSTING TO 15-20 KT INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 25 KT FOR THIS EVENING.
A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40 KT AT 2KFT COMES IN TONIGHT AS WELL.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR 17-19Z. LOWER CHANCES OF
IFR BEFORE 17Z AS WELL AS BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR 17-19Z. LOWER CHANCES OF
IFR BEFORE 17Z AS WELL AS BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR 17-19Z. LOWER CHANCES OF
IFR BEFORE 17Z AS WELL AS BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR 17-19Z. LOWER CHANCES OF
IFR BEFORE 17Z AS WELL AS BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A CHANCE OF LIFR 17-22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR BEFORE 18Z. A CHANCE OF
IFR 18-00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...VFR. W WINDS G25-35KT.
.SAT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT...DIMINISHING LATE EVENING.
.SUNDAY-MON...VFR.

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE FAR S PARTS OF THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES REMAIN AROUND 5 FT...SO HAVE CONTINUED EXISTING SCA IN
THOSE ZONES FOR THIS MORNING.

INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO SCA LEVELS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS...NY HARBOR AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND ON ALL NON- OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT. THUS HAVE
STARTED THE SCA FOR NY HARBOR AND THE S SHORE BAYS ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE CONTINUING TO START THE REMAINDER OF THE NON-
OCEAN WATERS SCA AT 23Z.

STILL APPEARS THAT SHOULD GET SUFFICIENT MIXING OVER THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT TO MIX DOWN 35-40 KT FLOW AT 950
HPA...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FOR TONIGHT.

LEANED TOWARDS STRONGER 950 HPA WINDS IN GFS FOR FRIDAY...AS THEY
TEND TO PREFORM A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM IN THESE TYPES OF
SET UPS (NAM TENDS TO BE UNDER DONE)...SO HAVE EXPANDED THE GALE
WARNING TO COVER ALL MARINE ZONES FOR FRIDAY. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO AT LEAST 6-11 FT BY FRIDAY
MORNING...HIGHEST EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTY NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH GALES ON AT LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED ON THE BAYS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH TODAY...SO NO HYDRO ISSUES.

NO SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AT THIS TIME...JUST TOUCHING MINOR.

DO NOT EXPECT BLOW OUT TIDES TOMORROW OR SATURDAY...BUT TIDES WILL
BE ABOUT A FOOT LOWER THAN ASTRONOMICAL.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ071-073-176-
177.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

942 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST WAS NOT ON TRACK AND HAVE MADE MAJOR CHANGES TO SENSIBLE
WEATHER. PCPN IS ADVECTING ENE AT ALMOST 100 MPH!

LATEST HRRR IS UNDERDONE...BUT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA.

HAVE RAISED POPS TO 100% AND HAVE MOVED UP TIMING OF GOING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...NOW SCHEDULED FOR MID AFTERNOON.

TEMPS ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY BASED ON PCPN - SO ONLY A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CURRENT.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
FROM W TO E AS THE AFOREMENTIONED EXITS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
COULD THEN SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY OVER N/E ZONES IN RESPONSE TO THE OPENING
CUTOFF LOW TRAVERSING TO THE N ACROSS S ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

FOR NOW GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY...AS A WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM 700-500 HPA RIDGE TRANSITS THE AREA.

SFC HIGH PRES WITH UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR
SUNDAY. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES TONIGHT. SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...LOCALLY BELOW
IFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IFR COULD
VERY WELL EXTEND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS.
IMPROVEMENT OCCURS TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SE WINDS NEAR 10 KT WILL START GUSTING TO 15-20 KT INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 25 KT FOR THIS EVENING.
A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40 KT AT 2KFT COMES IN TONIGHT AS WELL.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR 17-19Z. LOWER CHANCES OF
IFR BEFORE 17Z AS WELL AS BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR 17-19Z. LOWER CHANCES OF
IFR BEFORE 17Z AS WELL AS BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR 17-19Z. LOWER CHANCES OF
IFR BEFORE 17Z AS WELL AS BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR 17-19Z. LOWER CHANCES OF
IFR BEFORE 17Z AS WELL AS BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A CHANCE OF LIFR 17-22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR BEFORE 18Z. A CHANCE OF
IFR 18-00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...VFR. W WINDS G25-35KT.
.SAT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT...DIMINISHING LATE EVENING.
.SUNDAY-MON...VFR.

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE FAR S PARTS OF THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES REMAIN AROUND 5 FT...SO HAVE CONTINUED EXISTING SCA IN
THOSE ZONES FOR THIS MORNING.

CONDITIONS SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 OF AN INCH OR LESS OF QPF IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...THEN
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDES HAVE PASSED FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT FOR LINDENHURST
ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE. LOOKS LIKE WE`LL JUST TOUCH MINOR ON THE
WESTERN SOUND.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ071-073-176-177.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ074-075-080-
178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ338-345.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JMC/JM
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

504 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
10Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
LOW/DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM JET REGION CAN BE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY TO THE SOUTH
OF THIS DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU TO THE TN
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WE FIND A WEST-EAST ELONGATED AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
12/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN THROUGH ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE TROP.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE EXCEEDED 40C AT
TIMES. THE SKIES AS A RESULT ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING ABOVE AREAS OF VERY LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...HELPING TO KEEP OUR WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST WE FIND A
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE STRONG SYSTEM MENTIONED
EARLIER CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT CROSSES THE TN VALLEY
AND DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTH
AND EAST WITH TIME. THIS FRONT FINALLY REACHES OUR NORTHERN ZONES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH DOWN THE LENGTH
OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

THE FOG HAS BECOME QUITE DENSE IN SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST. THE
EXTENT OF THE FOG BASED ON OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE DATA/AND
TRAFFIC CAMS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THESE AREAS IN EXPECTATION OF SOME DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...
EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...LEAVING
THE REGION WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE SCT CLOUDS WILL ACTUALLY TEND TO DISSIPATE TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL MIXING REACHES UP
ABOVE THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES DOWN TOWARD LEE/CHARLOTTE
COUNTIES WILL LEAVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND EVEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATER DAY/EVENING
SHOWER. NOTHING HEAVY...AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF...HOWEVER
DOES APPEAR THERE WILL EXIST JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
PERHAPS SUPPORT A 20% ACROSS THESE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH MANY SPOTS REACHING
THE MIDDLE 80S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS THROUGH. TEMPS MAY SLIDE
BACK JUST A BIT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING AND WEAK
GRADIENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPING OF A FEEBLE
SEA-BREEZE AND LIGHT ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN INTO THE NATURE COAST BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND THEN MAKES SLOW PROGRESS DOWN TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AROUND DAWN...AND FINALLY SOUTH OF FORT MYERS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. ANY REAL INFLUENCE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FROM
THIS FRONT REALLY WILL NOT BE FELT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...SO ITS
PASSAGE WILL ONLY BE MARKED BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT. IN FACT...THE
EXCELLENT POST FRONTAL MIXING ALONG WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN FRIDAY AGAIN ENDING UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY
SPOTS IN TERM OF TEMPERATURE. WOULD EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S FOR LEVY
COUNTY...RISING TO THE LOWER 80S AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND
MIDDLE 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL ENCOUNTER A SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE DOWN TOWARD FORT
MYERS...AND AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
ONCE AGAIN KEPT RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20%. THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AND AFTER EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE
DRY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MORE ON THE WEEKEND IN THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AT
THE VERY START OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEAR ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY...WITH A DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MASS FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTHEAST
WINDS...GIVING US A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES WITH LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT...RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE NEAR ZERO AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA UNDER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE HIGH STILL HOLDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO GO CALM AND REALLY ALLOW
US TO COOL DOWN ANY FURTHER. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER TO
THE EAST COAST FOR SUNDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND
OUR TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING. IT WILL STILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT AFTERNOON...BUT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A POTENT UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TRAILING A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SETUP
WOULD CONTINUE OUR MODERATING TREND AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO A
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. IT LOOKS LIKE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THAT COULD
CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES AS FAR AS FORECAST DETAILS SO WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW FOR WEDNESDAY WITH FORECAST DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT IN THE FUTURE.

.AVIATION... AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR...AND SOME POTENTIAL STILL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO REACH
KTPA/KPIE AROUND DAWN. OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN OUT AROUND KLAL...BUT
LIKELY THEY ARE EXPERIENCING IFR OR LOWER BASED ON SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS. FURTHER SOUTH...AREAS OF LOWER
CLOUDS ARE MORE SCT IN NATURE...BUT MAY REDUCE CIGS TO IFR/MVFR AT
KPGD THROUGH 14Z. THE LOWER CLOUDS/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE...AND LEAD TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AFTER 14-15Z.

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT ARRIVES OVER APALACHEE BAY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS DURING FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND INCREASE. PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY TO
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION TODAY...AND IS FOLLOWED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TO OUR NORTH IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 35 PERCENT TO
THE NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER NO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. DISPERSION INDICES
WILL BE QUITE LOW TODAY...BUT THEN INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

FOG POTENTIAL...AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF SUNRISE. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. FOG IS THEN NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 85 68 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 87 71 86 68 / 20 20 20 10
GIF 86 66 84 60 / 0 10 0 0
SRQ 83 70 82 64 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 86 60 82 54 / 0 10 0 0
SPG 85 69 82 66 / 0 0 0 0

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INLAND
CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

459 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.AVIATION...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 85 68 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 87 71 86 68 / 20 20 20 10
GIF 86 66 84 60 / 0 10 0 0
SRQ 83 70 82 64 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 86 60 82 54 / 0 10 0 0
SPG 85 69 82 66 / 0 0 0 0

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INLAND
CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

430 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...

...COOLER/DRIER WEATHER ON TAP FRI-SUN BEFORE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
REBOUND NEXT WEEK...

TODAY-TONIGHT...DEEP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NE GOMEX ACRS THE
NRN BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL FL. EVNG
RAOBS DEPICT THE RIDGE WELL WITH A DEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE
H85-H50 LYR AT KTBW/KXMR/KJAX...PWAT VALUES AOB 0.75". THE RIDGE HAS
NUDGED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO S FL...POSITION MARKED BY A THIN
BAND OF MID LVL MOISTURE S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH H85-H70 DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS BTWN 5-7C. RADAR SHOWING A THIN BAND OF SHRAS TRYING TO
WORK ITS WAY N FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...BUT
WERE GETTING SMOTHERED BY THE SUPPRESSED AIRMASS ASSOCD WITH THE
RIDGE.

CLEAR SKIES AND LGT/VRBL WINDS HAVE ALLOWED AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO
DVLP NEAR/NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WHILE THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE...IT WILL POSE A HAZARD TO THE EARLY COMMUTE.

A WELL DVLPD STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPR MIDWEST WILL LIFT NE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 120KT-140KT H30-H20 JET STREAK
LIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THIS MOTION WILL KEEP THE
GOMEX/BAHAMA RIDGE IN PLACE OVERHEAD...ERODING ITS NRN FLANK. THE
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THE DEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS WELL AS A
RESPECTABLE MID LVL THERMAL RIDGE ACRS CENTRAL FL...H70 TEMPS ARND
10C AND H50 TEMPS ARND -4C ARE YIELDING LAPSE RATES AOB 5C/KM THRU
THE LYR. MID LVL VORT AND UPR LVL DIVERGENCE FIELDS WILL BE EITHER
NEUTRAL OR TOO WEAK TO GENERATE THE INSTABILITY TO BREAK THE
INVERSION. PWAT VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.8" OVER S FL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE KMFL RAOB ALSO SHOWS A NOTEWORTHY SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN THE H85-H70 LYR WHILE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS H85-H70
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARND INCREASING FROM 5-7C S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
TO 10C ALONG THE MARTIN/ST. LUCIE COUNTY LINE.

TOO MUCH SUPPRESSION/DRY AIR AND TOO LITTLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO ALLOW
ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP TO WORK ITS WAY N OF THE MARTIN/PALM BEACH
COUNTY LINE. ANY SHRAS THAT MIGHT SURVIVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT...WILL KEEP THE FCST PRECIP FREE. DRIER
AIR...LIGHT WINDS...AND NEAR FULL SUN WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE L80S ALONG THE COAST...M80S INTERIOR...5-8F ABV AVG. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REFLECT CURRENT SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCD WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS...L/M60S INTERIOR AND SPACE COAST NWD...M/U60S TREASURE
COAST.

FRI-SUN...REINFORCING (DRY) COOL FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT SAGS
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA. BDRY GETS BRIDGED BY INCREASING N TO NNE
WINDS FROM A STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTH CTRL-SERN
CONUS BUILDS E-ESE INTO FL AND THE ADJCT ATLC. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED AWAY FROM THE SLGT SHOWER CHCS THAT IT HAD BEEN ADVERTISING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND INSTEAD WAITS UNTIL THE WORK WEEK TO
START BRING IT BACK INTO THE FCST FROM S-N. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER
DISCUSSION...POST-FRONTAL COOL ADVECTION WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR. VEERING OF WINDS TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
OCCURS AS QUICKLY AS 6-12HR BEHIND FROPA...WHICH BOTH MODIFIES WHAT
CAA OCCURS OVER THE COASTAL/SRN AREAS...AND AIDS AIR MASS "RECOVERY"
AREAWIDE STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.

L-M80S FRI WITH LARGE SPREAD IN MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT...RANGING FROM
L50S NEAR LAKE GEORGE/OCALA FOREST TO U60S OVER MARTIN CO. U70S
NORTH-CTRL TO 80/L80S FOR WEEKEND MAXES. MINS RANGE FROM U50S NW TO
U60S/L70S SE ON SAT NIGHT AND L60S NW TO L70S FOR THE SPACE/TREASURE
COASTS SUN NIGHT.

MON-THU...GLOBAL MODELS START OFF IN GREAT AGREEMENT FOR THE WORK
WEEK...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS HAS SHOWN A LATE SEASON
T-WAVE/TC FEATURE COMING INTO THE BAHAMAS AND TWD SE FLORIDA FOR MID
TO LATE WEEK. THE CURRENT FCST FOLLOWS THE ECM SOLUTION OF E TO SE
FLOW WITH SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/RAIN CHCS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO RISE
BACK ABOVE FROM TUE ONWARD. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MINS SEVERAL DEGS
WARMER THAN NORMAL...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST.

.AVIATION...THRU 13/12Z...

SFC WNDS:
INTERIOR SITES: THRU 12/15Z...LGT VRBL AOB 3KTS. BTWN 12/15Z-12/18Z
BCMG W/NW 4-7KTS. BTWN 12/19Z-12/22Z...BCMG E/NE 4-6KTS XCPT KLEE.
BTWN 12/22Z-12/24Z...BCMG E/NE 4-6KTS. BTWN 13/02Z-13/04Z...BCMG
LGT/VRBL.

COASTAL SITES: THRU 12/15Z...VRBL AOB 3KTS. BTWN 12/15Z-12/18Z...
BCMG E/NE 6-9KTS. BTWN 13/00Z-13/03Z...BCMG LGT/VRBL.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS:
N OF KTIX-KISM THRU 12/15Z...AREAS MVFR BR/LCL LIFR FG WITH LCL CIGS
BLO OVC005. S OF KTIX-KISM THRU 12/15Z...AREAS CIGS BTWN BKN040-060.

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS BLANKETING THE FL PENINSULA WILL
GENERATE LGT/VRBL WINDS ACRS THE LCL ATLC...GENERALLY E/NE BLO 8KTS
S OF CAPE CANAVERAL...W/SW BLO 8KTS N OF THE CAPE THOUGH THE WEAK
PGRAD WILL ALLOW WINDS NEAR THE COAST TO VEER TO S/SE BY MID AFTN.
SEAS 2-3FT...DOMINANT PDS 8-9SECS.

FRI-MON...N-NNE POST-FRONTAL WIND SURGE PUSHES SEAS TO 5-6FT OVER
THE GULF STREAM LATE FRI NIGHT-EARLY SAT. ONSHORE FETCH LENGTHENS AS
A FRESHENING NE BREEZE VEERS TO EASTERLY. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6FT NEAR
SHORE AND 7-8FT OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN ONSET OF
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS...WITH SCA LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO START OFF
NEXT WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 82 62 79 55 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 86 63 84 59 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 84 67 83 64 / 0 10 10 10
VRB 84 67 82 65 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 85 61 81 54 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 85 62 82 56 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 86 63 83 60 / 0 0 0 10
FPR 84 69 84 66 / 10 10 10 10

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LAKE...INLAND VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...
ORANGE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM.
AM...NONE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

407 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS
LATE MONDAY IN THE FORM OF A COASTAL THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG FRONT AROUND MID NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...NOT AS MUCH STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING AT 4 AM. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF GEORGIA AND JUST WEST OF THE U.S.
17 CORRIDOR IN SE SOUTH CAROLINA. MOST OF THE FOG IS GOING TO REMAIN
SHALLOW BUT LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. WE HAVE MAINTAINED MENTIONS OF
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 50 IN SOME SPOTS
WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

TODAY A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
IN THE DAY BUT WILL ENCOUNTER A DRY DEEP LAYERED AIR MASS ENTRENCHED
IN WARM AND SINKING AIR AT THE MID LEVELS. ANOTHER DRYING FEATURE IS
THE DEEP WEST FLOW SEEN ON REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES. A
FEW CUMULUS/ALTOCU MAY PUSH INTO INLAND ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
TEND TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. OTHERWISE...A FEW BANDS
OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME THIN CIRRUS OVER THE AREA.

THE LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MIXING AROUND THE COUPLE OF WARMEST HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD TAP INTO SOME 25-30 KT FLOW CLOSER TO 3 KFT AND
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE IN A FEW AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF I- 16. WE MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO THE WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON PER THICKNESS/PERSISTENCE SCHEMES AND
MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WILL WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. THE EVENING HOURS
WILL BE MILD IN THE 60S INITIALLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S COAST FOR LOWS.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WILL BUILD TOWARDS OUR REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS ROUNDING THE
HIGH WILL CAUSE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN ON
THURSDAY...IN THE LOWER 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL MOVE CLOSER
TO THE REGION, BUT IT`S STILL NOT SITUATED WELL ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND A
DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS MOST AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE TN VALLEY, BRINGING
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT A VERY COOL DAY, EVEN WITH FULL
SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR. LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE COAST WILL BE WARMER...THE LOWER
TO MAYBE MID 40S. ADDED PATCHY FROST TO PORTIONS OF COLLETON,
HAMPTON, ALLENDALE, SCREVEN, AND JENKINS COUNTIES. WITH THE MODELS
TRENDING COLDER, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE FROST COVERAGE NEEDS
TO BE EXPANDED AND FROST ADVISORIES NEED TO BE ISSUED.

SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MODERATING SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER CAROLINAS, SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH HOVERS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND A WEDGE PATTERN BRIEFLY DEVELOPS. MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY...BRINGING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE COAST. TUESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST, OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER, THE COASTAL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND
MAYBE A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND GETS INTERESTING
AS MODELS SHOW A STRONG TROUGH AND DEVELOPING STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THE ECMWF PUSHES THIS STORM TO THE NORTH AND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER WITH
THE FROPA, BY NEARLY 36 HOURS. GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR
OUT AND KNOWING THERE WILL BE A FRONT EITHER OVER US OR CLOSE TO US,
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS, WHICH KEEPS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. WE HAVE A COUPLE HOURS OF 6SM BR IN
GROUND FOG AND SCT001 TO TREND TOWARD SUNRISE EXPECTATIONS.
EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH KSAV
AND KCHS AS DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 KT
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR WILL
PREVAIL.

.MARINE...
THE MIXING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WATERS LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE TODAY
AS THE LAND MASS WARMS. WE SUSPECT NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL AVERAGE
10 TO 15 KT WITH CLOSER TO 15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT LATER
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
THERE WILL BE SOME SURGING TONIGHT...MOST NOTICEABLY BEYOND 20 NM
OFF THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS COOL. THROUGH TONIGHT...SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST
SEAWARD FROM THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH PILOT BUOYS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND EASE FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AND
AROUND 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. WINDS WILL START INCREASING
FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
REGION, STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO A MODERATE OR FRESH BREEZE, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 10 NM FOR ALL OF
THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AND 4-5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTS FOR A BRIEF TIME, MOST
LIKELY FOR MARINE ZONES 350 AND 374. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SATURDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
SEAS UNDER 5 FT. MODELS INDICATE WINDS AND SEAS DETERIORATING LATE
MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND A CENTRAL U.S. STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...
MARINE...MS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

404 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PASSING
OVERHEAD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
HAVE NOT HAD MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD WHICH WILL DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO
LIMITED FOR PRECIPITATION FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE. W TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED.
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY COOLING
DOWN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER COOL AND DRY
ADVECTION. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCES MARGINAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRY...BUT LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE 30S...BUT WITH THE WINDS REMAINING UP SOMEWHAT...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION LATE IN THE NIGHT AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY NOT EXPECTED TO RISE OUT OF THE 50S. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
IS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THIS NIGHT SHOULD
PRODUCE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S. BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST AREAWIDE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES POSSIBLY SEEING A
FREEZE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINNING SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE APPROACHING THE REGION UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF LIFTS
THIS LOW RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS A DEEP LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...SLOWLY LIFTING IT
NORTH. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECASTS
DUE TO THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS. GENERALLY CONTINUED
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO CHANCE BY
WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.

MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME LOW CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING. SREF
SEEMS TO BE THE MOST OPTIMISTIC SHOWING MVFR OR VFR
CONDITIONS...AND THE HRRR GOING TOWARDS IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR
CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT WILL ADVERTISE MVFR
VSBYS AT AGS/OGB BEFORE DAWN. SOME SCTD CLOUDS AOB 1 KFT ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH NAM BUFKIT SHOWING A NOCTURNAL LLJ AROUND 30
KTS AT 1 KFT...NOT ANTICIPATING LOW CIGS BUT AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND
14Z. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE
FORECAST.

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA
EASTMAN...WATEREE RIVER AT WATEREE DAM...AND THE PEE DEE RIVER AT
CHERAW. A FLOOD WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG LATER IN THE WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

121 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PASSING
OVERHEAD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
HAVE NOT HAD MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS WILL TRACK NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE...WITH A
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. COOL
AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PROG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER STILL WELL TO OUR WEST
EARLY SATURDAY. DUE TO EXPECTATION OF SOME WIND...QUESTION
INVOLVING FROST POTENTIAL LATE FRI NT/EARLY SAT...BUT DID MENTION
PATCHY FROST NORTH EARLY SAT MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION BY SAT NT AND SUN...WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...THOUGH STILL
SOME POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE AND
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGEST FROST...AND FREEZING TEMPS...POSSIBLE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT
LATEST RUNS OF BOTH ARE SLOWING DOWN THE APPROACH AS THEY ARE NOW
CUTTING OFF THE UPPER LOW AND WELL TO OUR WEST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT PLUME OF BEST MOISTURE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
WED...OR MAYBE EVEN THU. ACCEPTED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WHICH PROVIDES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE MON NT INTO
TUE...INCREASING TO CHANCE BY WED.

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE
FORECAST.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1151 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

16z/10am surface analysis shows 985mb low over Lake Michigan with
cold front arcing southeastward through the Ohio River Valley to
the Gulf Coast. Tight pressure gradient on the back side of the
low continues to produce very strong winds across central Illinois
this morning, with latest obs indicating gusts generally in the
30 to 40mph range. Clouds blanket the entire area: however, skies
have cleared along/southwest of a Cedar Rapids, Iowa to St. Louis,
Missouri line. HRRR is handling the cloud cover quite well, so
will follow its solution closely for the clearing trend today.
Based on satellite loops and HRRR, it appears skies will become
mostly sunny along/southwest of a Macomb to Springfield line by
midday, then will clear further east across much of the KILX CWA
as the afternoon progresses. Areas from Bloomington to Paris
northeastward will likely remain mostly cloudy through the entire
day. As skies clear, mixing from aloft will likely keep the wind
gusts going and perhaps even increase them a bit. Have therefore
decided to keep the Wind Advisory going through 6pm.

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

Strong cold front passed through central and southeast Illinois
overnight, with strong westerly winds occurring in its wake. The
winds would be stronger, but a strong subsidence inversion has
developed and limited the mixing depth to no more than 3K feet
across the forecast area. That being said, the pressure gradient
that persists and wind speeds beneath the inversion support gusts of
30-40 mph through the day, with the weaker gusts occurring south of
I-70. Plan to keep current Wind Advisory north of I-70 going through
6 pm this evening.

The post cold frontal clear slot has pushed east of I-57 and will be
east of the forecast area shortly. Several hours of wrap around low
cloudiness are expected to start the day, with only slow clearing
from west to east this afternoon. The clouds and low-level cold
advection will limit temperature rises today. While most locations
should make it into the lower 50s for highs, a few upper 40s are
certainly possible, especially where the clouds hang on the longest
in east-central Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

On the heels of the exiting trof, high pressure builds into the
Midwest for a couple days. Tonight will be cooler behind the passage
of the front, but the winds will stay up and moderate the diurnal
drop somewhat. As the sfc ridge axis drifts over the region, the
winds continue to weaken. By Friday night, the winds are very light
and clear skies set up a good radiational cooling night and the
temps bottom out below the freezing mark for Sat morning. However,
the winds pick up out of the south on the back side of the ridge and
the warm up kicks in again, with Saturday warming to the mid to
upper 50s. Warming temps continue through the end of the weekend as
a wave digs in over the western half of the CONUS and starts to dig
out a trof. Same wave ripples along on Sunday to bring precip
chances to Central Illinois by Sunday night. Some variation in the
models with the timing of the wave at this point, but Sunday is just
a start. Next wave deepens the trof over the southwest and develops
a much deeper low that cuts off over the Southern Plains, leaving
the Midwest in a stream of llvl waa and moisture advection. The
influx of warmer temps and higher RH will keep a rather constant
rain threat over the area through midweek. Expect to see some fine
tuning and shifts in the forecast overall in that time frame...but
for now Monday through Wednesday remain wet.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

MVFR ceilings associated with deep low pressure over the Great
Lakes are rapidly clearing from the W/SW late this morning. 1730z
visible satellite imagery shows the back edge of the clouds along
a KGBG to KSPI line, which is slightly faster than the HRRR
forecast. Given satellite trends, have adjusted clearing times at
the terminals by a couple of hours, with mostly clear skies at
both KPIA and KSPI at 18z...then further northeast to KBMI and
KCMI by 20z. After that, clear skies are anticipated tonight
through Friday morning. Westerly winds will continue to gust to
between 30 and 35kt for the next couple of hours. Winds will slowly
subside this evening: however, pressure gradient will remain
tight enough to support gusts of 15 to 20kt through the overnight
hours. An approaching surface trough will help increase wind gusts
back into the 25 to 30kt range on Friday.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063.

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1012 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

Gusty westerly winds will persist across the central Illinois
terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time...although a gradual
decrease in wind speeds is anticipated later today and especially
tonight. MVFR CIGS in place to start the day will scatter out
from southwest to northeast during the midday to mid afternoon
hours. Once the low clouds scatter out, minimal cloud cover and
VFR conditions are anticipated for the duration of the forecast
period.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063.

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BAK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1144 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

Ongoing weather event across Central Illinois this evening.
Although the storms had relatively little in the way of lightning
and thunder, the rapidly deepening and strengthening low is
resulting in very strong surface winds. The rain is just enough to
help bring down even stronger winds at the mid levels. Wind
reports of estimated 60 mph gusts, as well as a report at Peoria
airport of 71 mph. As for the remainder of the evening, the rain
is coming to an end quickly as the showers move eastward.
However, the gradient winds will continue, and potentially
increase through the overnight somewhat. Continued gusts in the
40-45 mph range can be expected until sunrise tomorrow. Minor
updates to the forecast currently, but no large scale changes
overall.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

Powerful November storm system is taking aim on central Illinois
this evening, with 20z/2pm surface chart showing a 991mb low over
southwest Iowa. Strong to severe thunderstorms are currently
developing in the vicinity of the low and arcing southward along a
trailing cold front into north-central Missouri. Further
south...another area of showers/storms is developing in association
with the warm conveyor belt across the Ozarks. As the low continues
to deepen and lift toward western Wisconsin, the storms currently
across northern Missouri will shift eastward into west-central
Illinois early this evening. Based on radar timing tools and
consistent forecasts from both the HRRR and 4km NAM, it appears
convection will arrive in the Illinois River Valley between 6pm and
8pm, along the I-55 corridor between 7pm and 9pm, and further east
to the I-57 corridor between 9pm and midnight. Damaging wind gusts
will be the primary severe weather threat across the western KILX
CWA early this evening, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out due to impressive amounts of low-level wind shear. As the
storms race E/NE, the severe wind threat will decrease east of the I-
55 corridor by mid to late evening as the storms tend to weaken with
time. Once the storms pass, very strong gradient winds will develop
as low pressure continues to deepen over Wisconsin. Westerly winds
will increase to between 20 and 30 mph overnight, with gusts
reaching the 40 to 50 mph range. As a result, a Wind Advisory will
remain in effect for all locations along/north of I-70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

The intense storm system (987 mb) is expected to be over central
thru northeast Wisconsin by Thursday morning with a very tight
pressure gradient across a large portion of the region. Forecast
soundings suggest the potential for 25 to 35 mph sustained winds
with gusts around 50 mph at times into the afternoon hours before we
see a very slow diminishing trend towards evening. With the surface
low pulling away from the area rather quickly, the wrap-around
moisture is expected to lift northeast as well and shift into far
northern IL or southern Wisconsin by evening. A secondary upper
trof will swing southeast across the lower Great Lakes Thursday
night and Friday with gusty winds expected with that system as well,
although not as strong as what we will see tonight and Thursday.

The weather should quiet down for Friday night through the weekend
as high pressure settles across the area. We should start out on
the cool side early in the weekend but as the high shifts off to
our east on Sunday, southerly winds will bring in milder air for
Sunday afternoon. However, it doesn`t look like the nice weather
will hold very long over our area as an active southwest flow
pattern continues into next week with the first of two significant
systems that will affect the Midwest. Showers chances increase
somewhat late Sunday night into Monday, and especially Monday night
into Tuesday as the upper wave tracks across the region.
Unfortunately, the upper wave and associated surface low will not be
a quick mover and will have ample opportunity to bring up some
significant rainfall to our area early next week with POPs in the
forecast through Thursday. The pattern will hold thru the rest of the
week with the latest ECMWF indicating another strong upper level system
poised over the southwest U.S. ready to spread precip back into our area
either late next week or during the weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

Increasing westerly winds will develop over the next few hours as
a cold front continues to push eastward past the central IL
terminals. West winds expected to reach 25-35 kts with gusts to
around 40 kts overnight into early afternoon Thursday before
gradually decreasing...but remaining quite breezy...around 15 kts
with gusts 20-25 kts. Low cloud cover wrapping around the
departing low pressure system will also arrive in the first few
hours of this TAF forecast period with MVFR cigs arriving by
08-09Z...and remaining until early afternoon.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063.

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Onton

ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS THERE IS AN ENHANCED

RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AFTER

THE STORMS END TONIGHT.

LOOKING AT THE STORM SYSTEM FROM A TOP DOWN APPROACH. STRONG H3 JET
WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION ACROSS OUR
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO LARGESCALE RISING MOTION ACROSS SOUTHERN IA
AND WESTERN ILL. THE H5 WAVE STILL IS FORECAST TO SWING NEGATIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WITH THE H3 FLOW WILL LEAD
TO VERY STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND RISING MOTION. AT H85...THE LLJ
TERMINUS ROTATES THROUGH THE CWA FROM 18Z TO 00Z ONLY INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. AGAIN THESE DYNAMICS ARE
PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES ACROSS OUR AREA. AS WITH PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A FORGONE CONCLUSION AS CAPE AND
TIMING OF DAY WILL COME INTO PLAY.

THE STRONG DYNAMICS HAVE LEAD TO MOISTURE RETURN THAT WAS WELL ABOVE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN THE SKY HAVE LEAD TO
HEATING AND ENOUGH CAPE TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITIES OF SEVERE OF
WEATHER. ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING VERY FAST AND COULD LEAD TO
LITTLE TIME TO RESPOND TO THEM. THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

WIND ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SFC LOW WILL LEAD TO STRONG GRADIENT WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. REPORTS OF DAMAGE FROM NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN THE KANSAS CITY AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE TOO LOW AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE SHAPE OF CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY NEED THE ADVISORY EXTENDED INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE.

FORECAST FOCUS ON WINDY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A DRY
AND QUIET WEEKEND. ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INTENSE CYCLONE WILL BE OCCLUDING AS
IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED IN THE HIGH PLAINS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL END EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN OUR FAR NORTH AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS FARTHER AWAY. THIS WILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...ESPECIALLY COMBINED
WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL RATHER WINDY IN THE MORNING BUT
THE WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON...AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY OVER MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. COLD TEMPERATURES WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

THIS WEEKEND...DRY AND SEASONAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES AND ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE ROCKIES.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE CWA BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINS STILL TO BE DETERMINED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 20
HOURS...WITH ONLY A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND AFTER 20Z THURSDAY. THE
INTENSE STORM OVER WISCONSIN WILL SWEEP MVFR CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER IOWA OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING BY MID
DAY THURSDAY. THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST BY IN LARGE AFTER A FEW
HOURS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH 08Z EARLY IN THE PERIOD. 20 TO 30
KTS SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO 40 TO 45 KTS. THUS IT WILL BE A
CHALLENGING DAY FOR ANY GENERAL AVIATION.
ERVIN

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1255 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING. AS WELL SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN TRACKING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT PRECIP SEEMS TO BE EVAPORATION BEFORE IT
REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...HI RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM
WOULD SUGGEST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP BY 1 AM AND HAVE TIMED THIS
WITH POPS. THE OTHER CONCERN HERE IS WITH THE WINDS. NEW MODEL
UPDATES WOULD SUGGEST DURING THE 09Z TO 15Z PERIOD...SOME STRONGER
THAN 30 MPH WINDS COULD REACH THE SURFACE. WITH 50 TO 55 KNOTS AT
850 HEADING INTO THE MORNING HOURS...SOME STRONGER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP THE SPS GOING FOR THIS AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR THE CURRENT TEMP AND DEW POINTS.
WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING...TEMPS
HAVE BEEN DROPPING OFF RATHER SLOWLY. FOR NOW THE POPS SEEM ON
TIME BUT WITH THE 00Z NAM AND HI RES PRODUCTS ISSUED LATER...WILL
GET A BETTER IDEA ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHILE AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS ALSO MAKING FOR A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY. HERE IN THE EAST...THOUGH...WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE
SUBDUED...BUT STILL TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S NORTH AND TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH. A BAND OF
HIGH CLOUDS DID DEVELOP AND HELPED SLOW THE TEMP RISE IN THE
NORTH.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHARP CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEY ALL DEPICT THIS LOW PUSHING
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
BAND OF WEAKENING ENERGY DOWN INTO KENTUCKY. BY THURSDAY
EVENING...THE MAIN LOW WILL BE PASSING INTO ONTARIO WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A SERIES OF MINOR ENERGY PACKETS THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILD START TO THE EVENING...BUT
ALSO A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WILL MIX THOSE COLDER TEMPERATURES OUT
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST PLACES. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO
THE LIKELY SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT THESE TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA
WITH THE FALLING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET AND AN OUTRUNNING OF
MID LEVEL SUPPORT. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT THE WORST OF
IT TO BE GENERALLY JUST SOME GUSTY SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY ALONG AND FOLLOWING THIS FRONT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.
WILL HIT THE WINDS HARD IN THE HWO AND ALSO ISSUE AN SPS
HIGHLIGHTING THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
FOR THURSDAY. ONE LAST WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED...POST FRONTAL...
BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA MOVES IN LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
VALLEY DROP OFF AND TO A LESSER AND OPPOSITE EXTENT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO ALL
GUIDANCE IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TONIGHT AND GENERALLY JUST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE EXITING TO THE EAST FOR THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015

AFTER A COOL WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...REINFORCING THIS TROUGH.
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH VERY DRY LOW/MID
LEVELS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS DYING OFF...AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING. WITH
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVERHEAD...EXPECT COLD MORNINGS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S. SOME
READINGS INTO THE LOWER 20S WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND...BUT STILL EXPECTING
SOME DECENT RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SHARP TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE REMAINS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THIS FEATURE...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE FEATURE IS STILL WELL OFF
SHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS. FOR THIS REASON...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH ON
WHEN RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION. IT APPEARS THE
BEST STAB AT RAIN CHANCES MOVING BACK IN WOULD BE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL PLAY A PART IN HOW MUCH
DOWNSLOPING WE SEE...WHICH MAY DELAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

PRECIPITATION AND WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH EASTERN KY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
TODAY...WITH PRECIP AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM STARTING IN THE NEXT HOUR AT KSYM AND KSME...SPREADING
EASTWARD TO KSJS BY 8Z. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBS FROM SITES
CURRENTLY RECEIVING RAIN TO OUR WEST...STILL EXPECTING CIGS TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR...THOUGH IT DOESN/T SEEM AS THOUGH RAIN WILL
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH VIS RESTRICTION. WENT AHEAD AND
GEARED TAFS TOWARD MVFR WORST CASE SCENARIOS FOR DURING THE TIME
THE RAIN IS OVERHEAD. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z /FROM WEST TO EAST/ AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THEY SHIFT TO A MORE WSW DIRECTION.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1146 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015

.AVIATION...

UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SFC WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP WITH THE INCREASING GRADIENT EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONG SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW CROSSING LAKE MI WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE OVERALL TREND OF THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD EAST. IF THEY
HOLD TOGETHER...A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS /8-11Z/ WILL BE
POSSIBLE. NOT QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE
TERMINALS ATTM. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS AROUND 13Z AND WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS. A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG/BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS AROUND
OR IN EXCESS OF 45 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN GUSTY
/OVER 35 KNOTS WITH BRIEF BURSTS OVER 45 KNOTS/ THROUGH THE DAY WITH
A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE WINDS EXPECTED LATE THURS AFTERNOON AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND BOOSTS THE MIXED LAYER.

FOR DTW...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE OF A 13Z FROPA CAUSING A RAPID
VEERING OF THE WINDS FROM 160 TO 230 DEG...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF TIME OF WIND GUSTS OVER 45 KNOTS. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO WIND DIRECTION HOVERING AROUND 230 TO 240 DEG
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OTHER THAN THE BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE
WINDS AROUND 13Z...THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LOOK TO OCCUR LATER
THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 918 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015

UPDATE...

AS OF THE 02Z SFC ANALYSIS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM /986 MB/ WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THAT
STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS INTO THE STRAITS REGION BY 18Z THURS. A
50-70KT LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY FEEDING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INTO THE CONVECTION ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN RAPIDLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS INDIANA
ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE DRIVEN INTO SE MI TONIGHT AND WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN
QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM. WHILE THIS REGION OF
CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO LOWER MI...A
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI IN THE
09Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. THIS ALONG WITH THE GOOD MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AND AMOUNT OF THUNDER UPSTREAM WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER LATE TONIGHT.

AS FOR THE WIND HEADLINES...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE WELL ELEVATED
AND HAVE A DEEP NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER TO CONTEND WITH TO
INHIBIT STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SFC PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SEVERAL HI RES SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND WRF
ARW/WRF NMM SUGGEST AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SFC COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT /PASSING THROUGH 11-15Z/. A
RAPID REDUCTION IN NEAR SFC STABILITY/STEEPENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT MIXING THE STRONGER WINDS
DOWN WITH THESE SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN THURS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 413 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015

SHORT TERM... LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A PLEASANT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
THE LATEST DATA INDICATES THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD PRECEDING THE BIG WIND EVENT
THAT WILL GET UNDERWAY DURING THURSDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY EVENING. INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE
OF HIGHER END WIND GUSTS SUPPORTS UPGRADE TO WIND ADVISORY/WIND
WARNING FOR THURSDAY IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE FIRST SIGN OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL OCCUR AS GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
RAMPS UP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND EVOLVES INTO
A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS. LOW TO MID LEVEL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A
SHARP MOISTURE AXIS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO RAPIDLY
INCREASING AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
FORCE A STRONG SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION OVER SE MICHIGAN IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER THAT WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS WITH BANDS OF GREATER CONCENTRATION WITHIN.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME WHILE 850 MB LI DROPS TO ABOUT -1C BY
09Z/4AM WHICH SUPPORTS ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ADDED
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SPC OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL THUNDER. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED STABLE LAYER UP TO ABOUT 2500 FEET ABOVE
WHICH THE STRONG WIND FIELD WILL BE CONFINED. GRADIENT WIND WILL
INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TOWARD SUNRISE. CATEGORICAL POPS ALSO REMAIN ON TARGET BUT WITH NO
CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS TOTALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER
0.5 INCH DUE TO THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN THROUGH SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

FOR THE WIND EVENT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY AT 995 MB IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN BY NEARLY 20 MB IN 24 HOURS TO ABOUT 985 MB WHILE
REACHING THE STRAITS/TIP OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY NOON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A POWERFUL COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION THAT WILL SURGE
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THURSDAY MORNING TO BEGIN THE HIGH
WIND EVENT. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN FOR A PROLONGED EVENT WITH MORE THAN
ONE PEAK OF ADVISORY/WARNING GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE. THE FIRST
WINDOW WILL BE DURING THE MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE/SHOWER ENHANCEMENT. THE
SECOND WINDOW WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND INTENSIFIED
WESTERLY GRADIENT WIND. THE LATEST DATA SUPPORTS THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST WIND...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-69 INITIALLY.
THE NAM IS NOW ONBOARD WITH MULTIPLE BINS OF 50+ KNOT WESTERLY FLOW
IN THE POST FRONT MIXED LAYER OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS ADDS
CONFIDENCE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW 60 MPH SURFACE WIND GUSTS...
AND MULTIPLE HOURS OF UPPER 50 MPH GUSTS...OVER SOUTH SECTIONS OF
THE REGION. THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE POSED BY THIS
SCENARIO WARRANTS THE WARNING UPGRADE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL
HOURS OF GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH IN THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB
WHERE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

MODEL TIMING ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS SOLID FROM ABOUT 11Z/6AM
TO 15Z/10 AM. THERE IS ALSO AGREEMENT ON SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT RAISES SOME CONCERN THAT
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DIRECTING STRONGER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE
ON THE INTERFACE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DIRECTLY BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT. A MODEST ISALLOBARIC PUNCH OF ONLY 2-3 MB/3HRS AND WEAK LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OF LIMITED SUPPORT FOR GUSTS FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION AND
PRESSURE RISES THAT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SEPARATE PEAK IN GUST
POTENTIAL DURING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE
NAM IS MORE BULLISH ON BOTH THE DYNAMIC FORCING WITH UP TO 6 MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE AND A DEEPER MIXED LAYER WITH STRONGER MEAN WIND. THIS
WAS THE PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR EXTENDING THE WIND HEADLINE INTO THE
EVENING AFTER SUNSET...AND ALSO SUGGESTS SOME SORT OF WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINE EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LONG TERM...

SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE QUICKLY ENTERING MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/PV OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STORM...WITH CONSOLIDATED COLD POOL/500 MB LOW TRACKING THROUGH
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PER 12Z EURO...500 MB TEMPS OF -32 TO -33 C...WITH
-13 C AT 700 MB. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEPTHS IN EXCESS
OF 10 KFT...AND FULLY EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THE INSTABILITY
AND LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCEMENT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -3 C TO -6
C RANGE (SEE COLDER REGIONAL GEM). AS SUCH...WOULD EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WITH ANY HEAVIER ACTIVITY...AS WET
BULBING EFFECTS SHOULD QUICKLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CRASH FROM THE HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S. IN ADDITION...RIGHT NOW EXPECTING WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH IN THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH THE INVERTED V IN THE LOWEST 2000 KFT COULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. EXCELLENT POST WAVE
SUBSIDENCE LOOKS TO BE OCCURRING RIGHT AROUND 00Z SATURDAY...WITH
EXTREME DRYING OCCURRING AT 700 MB. CONFIDENCE IN SCOURING OUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AT 850-925 MB IS NOT HIGH...AND HAVE
TRENDED SKY COVER TO JUST PARTLY CLOUDY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THROUGH MID WEEK.

MARINE...

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY RAMPING UP THROUGH
TONIGHT...REACHING 25 TO 35 KNOTS BY 12Z THURSDAY...AS VERY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THEN
TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW. THIS LOW WILL DRIVE
A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST GALES FOLLOWING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. BRIEF STORM FORCE WINDS APPEAR LIKELY FOR LAKE ST
CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE WITHIN THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
PUNCH...AND HAVE UPGRADED TO STORM WARNING. WITH HIGHER END
SOUTHWEST GALES/LOW END STORMS DEVELOPING OVER LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER
WILL BECOME AN ISSUE FOR THE WESTERN BASIN...AND A LOW WATER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AS THE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 4.5 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SAGINAW
BAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND 18 INCHES BELOW CHART DATUM...AND LOW WATER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE AS WELL.

A SECOND SYSTEM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PRIMARY STORM ON FRIDAY WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END GALES FOR FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MARINE WATERS...AS MUCH COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...GENERATING INSTABILITY SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS...AND
ENHANCING THE THERMAL TROUGHING OVER LAKE HURON. GALE WARNINGS WHERE
EXTENDED FOR SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTH HALF.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ063.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ363-
441>443-462>464.

LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR LHZ421-422.

GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-422.

GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ361-
362.

GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LEZ444.

STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1039 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT BRINGING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOL AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. IT WILL STAY GUSTY BUT
A SLOW DECLINE IN WIND SPEED IS INDICATED.

LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WORKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING ABOUT A PERIOD OF FAVORABLE
WIND ALIGNMENT OVER THE LAKES WHICH THE HRRR SHOWS SUPPORTING A
MULTIBAND SCENARIO FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE WHEN
UPSTREAM FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE DIRECTIONALLY SHEARED.

WE PLAN ON UPPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT INTO THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE...WITH AN ADVISORY IN THE WORKS FOR WARREN AND MCKEAN. WARM
GROUND SHOULD PRECLUDE HIGHER AMOUNTS.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUING ACROSS REGION.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN AND NOT OUT OF CANADA...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL RUN ABOUT
3-8F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MAXES ON SAT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER NWRN AREAS...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES BLEEDING INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER AND GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY MIDWEEK...AN AREA OF CLOSED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THIS UPPER-LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE
WEEK...IT WILL PUSH A SFC LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA.

OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF LIFTING THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE
PLAINS MORE QUICKLY AND BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
EARLY THURS. THE 12Z GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HOLDS
THE FRONT OFF UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. THE 12Z GEFS BRINGS THE BAND OF
HIGHEST PWATS THROUGH THURS EVENING...WHICH COULD MEAN THAT SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING A QUICKER MOVING SYSTEM.

EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE OUR WEATHER TURN MORE
UNSETTLED THRU THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT...AS STRONG STORM
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW ENG PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. BUFKIT AND
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 20-25KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALLEGHENY MTNS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST OBS AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUPPORT
PREDOMINANTLY IFR VSBYS AT KBFD UNTIL PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ARND 07Z. FURTHER SOUTH...CAN/T RULE OUT
OCNL IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN 06Z-12Z...AS PLUME OF PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE ASCENDS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING
FLOW WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT OCNL MVFR
CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY AT KUNV AND KAOO FOR A TIME
LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS THE SE AIRFIELDS...INCLUDING
KMDT/KLNS...THERE IS A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU
THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CAUSE ANY LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY AND WINDS TO DIMINISH LATE IN
THE DAY. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE W
MTNS AND PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SHOWERS/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP LATE.

.CLIMATE...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY PUT US BELOW NORMAL FOR A 7-DAY
STRETCH FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID-OCTOBER.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ004-005.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

756 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. IT WILL STAY GUSTY BUT
A SLOW DECLINE IN WIND SPEED IS INDICATED.

WE PLAN ON UPPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT INTO THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE...WITH AN ADVISORY IN THE WORKS FOR WARREN AND MCKEAN. WARM
GROUND SHOULD PRECLUDE HIGHER AMOUNTS.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUING ACROSS REGION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER AND GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE OUR WEATHER TURN MORE
UNSETTLED THRU THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT...AS STRONG STORM
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW ENG PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. BUFKIT AND
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 20-25KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALLEGHENY MTNS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST OBS AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUPPORT
PREDOMINANTLY IFR VSBYS AT KBFD UNTIL PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ARND 06Z. FURTHER SOUTH...CAN/T RULE OUT OCNL
IFR VSBYS/CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT KJST BTWN 06Z-12Z...AS PLUME OF
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ASCENDS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING
FLOW WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT OCNL MVFR
CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY AT KUNV AND KAOO FOR A TIME
LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS THE SE AIRFIELDS...INCLUDING
KMDT/KLNS...THERE IS A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SHOWERS/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP LATE.

.CLIMATE...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY PUT US BELOW NORMAL FOR A 7-DAY
STRETCH FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID-OCTOBER.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ004-005.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

734 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT BRINGING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOL AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. IT WILL STAY GUSTY BUT
A SLOW DECLINE IN WIND SPEED IS INDICATED.

WE PLAN ON UPPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT INTO THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE...WITH AN ADVISORY IN THE WORKS FOR WARREN AND MCKEAN. WARM
GROUND SHOULD PRECLUDE HIGHER AMOUNTS.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUING ACROSS REGION.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

THE HIGH BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN AND NOT OUT OF CANADA...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL RUN ABOUT
3-8F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MAXES ON SAT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER NWRN AREAS...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES BLEEDING INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER AND GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE OUR WEATHER TURN MORE
UNSETTLED THRU THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT...AS STRONG STORM
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW ENG PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. BUFKIT AND
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 20-25KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALLEGHENY MTNS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST OBS AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUPPORT
PREDOMINANTLY IFR VSBYS AT KBFD UNTIL PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ARND 06Z. FURTHER SOUTH...CAN/T RULE OUT OCNL
IFR VSBYS/CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT KJST BTWN 06Z-12Z...AS PLUME OF
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ASCENDS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING
FLOW WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT OCNL MVFR
CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY AT KUNV AND KAOO FOR A TIME
LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS THE SE AIRFIELDS...INCLUDING
KMDT/KLNS...THERE IS A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SHOWERS/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP LATE.

.CLIMATE...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY PUT US BELOW NORMAL FOR A 7-DAY
STRETCH FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID-OCTOBER.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

725 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT BRINGING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN
WINDY INTO SATURDAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY THIS EVENING. A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS BY NIGHTFALL. A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING COOL AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WESTERLY FLOW IS CAUSING A CLEAR DELINEATION IN THE CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER SRN PA AND THICK STRATOCU COVERING THE NRN
HALF. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ARE BURGEONING OVER NW PA ATTM...BUT
WESTERLY /FLOW VS NWRLY/ IS LIMITING COVERAGE. COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL
TURN RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A
LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS PSBL ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY LATE THIS EVE.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT LEAST WITH
STRONG PRESS GRADIENT ACROSS REGION. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN HAVE
NOT REACHED THE VALUES OF THIS MORNING. THOUGH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL SHARPED THE GRADIENT SOME THIS EVENING...DO NO PLAN TO
EXPAND CURRENT WIND ADV BEYOND 23Z ATTM.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/SECONDARY COLD
FRONT TO YESTERDAYS FROPA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. FORCING WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF LE ACTIVITY BEHIND
THE TROF/FRONT. MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT
WILL EXPECT AN INCH TO TWO OVER THE NWRN MTNS. THE HEAVIEST OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE OCCUR BY SUNRISE.

THE 1030MB HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
AND NOT OUT OF CANADA BUT IT WILL RUN ABOUT 3-8F COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR MAXES ON SAT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER AND GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE OUR WEATHER TURN MORE
UNSETTLED THRU THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALLEGHENY MTNS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST OBS AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUPPORT
PREDOMINANTLY IFR VSBYS AT KBFD UNTIL PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ARND 06Z. FURTHER SOUTH...CAN/T RULE OUT OCNL
IFR VSBYS/CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT KJST BTWN 06Z-12Z...AS PLUME OF
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ASCENDS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING
FLOW WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT OCNL MVFR
CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY AT KUNV AND KAOO FOR A TIME
LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS THE SE AIRFIELDS...INCLUDING
KMDT/KLNS...THERE IS A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SHOWERS/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP LATE.

.CLIMATE...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY PUT US BELOW NORMAL FOR A 7-DAY
STRETCH FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID-OCTOBER.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1255 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
WINDY AND SEASONABLY COLDER WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND
POSSIBLY THE LAUREL RIDGES. AFTER A BRISK CHILL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... HAVE TWEAKED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRONOUNCED CLEARING TREND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS
CLEARING WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SHOWERS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST... AND THESE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
PA THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.

UPDATED AT 11 AM... MAIN BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING EAST OF CENTRAL PA
LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF ALL OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING IS WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST PA LATE
THIS MORNING AND SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

EARLY AM WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER LOW LIFTING NE ACROSS LK
MICHIGAN. ASSOC LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS IS PUSHING
INTO WESTERN PA AT 10Z...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS. A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED UPSTREAM...SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF
TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PA AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THRU
LATER THIS MORNING.

BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS AND LATEST HRRR...HAVE RAMPED POPS
UPWARD TO BTWN 80-100 PCT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA. LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION AND NR TERM MDL DATA INDICATES MOST PLACES WILL SEE
A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF LL JET...BEGINNING
ARND 11Z ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...AND BEGINNING ARND 13-14Z
OVER THOSE AREAS EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.

TEMPS SHOULD SHOOT UP ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY THIS AFTN...AS
SHOWERS EXIT EASTERN PA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MILD AIR INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THRU CENTRAL PA BTWN 18Z-22Z...ACCOMPANIED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER
IN SPOTS. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTN /ESP WESTERN PA/ AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT BEGIN
MIXING TO GROUND LEVEL. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT
SUPPORT GUSTS NEAR 40KTS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE A
WIND ADV IS NOW IN EFFECT.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THRU TONIGHT...AS
DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF PA THRU THE E GRT LKS.
WHERE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LYR OF MOISTURE ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY
MTNS...THERE SHOULD BE PERSISTENT STRATOCU/SCT -SHRA TONIGHT.
FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD A DRY NIGHT WITH
A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
WILL BE WSWLY...FAVORING LAKE ENHANCED PCPN ALIGNED CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORE FROM ERIE CO INTO CHAUTAUQUA CO IN FAR SWRN NY. HOWEVER
BLYR WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW AND BECOME WELL-ALIGNED LATER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION /1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMTS UP TO 3
INCHES/ IN PARTS OF WARREN/MCKEAN AND ELK COUNTY. LIGHTER AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A DUSTING UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE LAUREL RIDGES...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF RT 219.
FRI-SAT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL AVERAGE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
MID-NOVEMBER CLIMO...WITH GUSTY WINDS ADDING AN ADDITIONAL CHILL.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/LOWERING INVERSION HGTS COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL SPELL AND END
TO THE LAKE ENHANCED AND OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OFF THE EAST
COAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER PATTERN BY MID
NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

THE 12/00Z GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION OF ENERGY CROSSING
THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SPLITTING OVER THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED GFS AND CMC TO A LESSER
EXTENT SUGGEST A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE WHILE
THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SRN STREAM WAVE REACHING THE
MID MS VLY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH SUCH A WIDE SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF
THE PCPN PATTERN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH WHICH SHOWS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN POPS INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF PA EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN PA AND
THESE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE BFD AND JST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK WESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE ERIE WILL
BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE BFD TAF SITE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MVFR CLOUD CIGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AT JST/UNV/AOO AND BKN VFR
CIGS FARTHER EAST AT IPT AND MDT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KTS
AND GUSTY WILL SHIFT TO WEST WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 KTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...GUSTY WINDS. EVENING SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST.

SAT...EARLY AM SHSN/REDUCED CIGS POSS AT KBFD/KJST.

SUN/MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010-
011-017-024-033.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

655 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AM WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER LOW LIFTING NE ACROSS LK
MICHIGAN. ASSOC LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS IS PUSHING
INTO WESTERN PA AT 10Z...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS. A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED UPSTREAM...SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF
TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PA AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THRU
LATER THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
WILL BE WSWLY...FAVORING LAKE ENHANCED PCPN ALIGNED CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORE FROM ERIE CO INTO CHAUTAUQUA CO IN FAR SWRN NY. HOWEVER
BLYR WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW AND BECOME WELL-ALIGNED LATER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION /1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMTS UP TO 3
INCHES/ IN PARTS OF WARREN/MCKEAN AND ELK COUNTY. LIGHTER AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A DUSTING UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE LAUREL RIDGES...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF RT 219.
FRI-SAT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL AVERAGE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
MID-NOVEMBER CLIMO...WITH GUSTY WINDS ADDING AN ADDITIONAL CHILL.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/LOWERING INVERSION HGTS COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL SPELL AND END
TO THE LAKE ENHANCED AND OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OFF THE EAST
COAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER PATTERN BY MID
NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OVR THE MIDWEST. SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS/MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. AT KBFD...UPSLOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD EVEN YIELD
A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS LATE THIS AM. THE OTHER ISSUE OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LLWS OVER WESTERN PA...AS A WEAKENING LL
JET MOVES IN FROM OHIO. BASED ON MDL SOUNDINGS...HAVE INCLUDED
LLWS AT KBFD BTWN 12Z-15Z.

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BTWN
18Z-22Z...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST WINDS...WHICH WILL LAST THRU
FRIDAY. RESIDUAL POST-FRONTAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST THRU THIS
EVENING...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE MTNS...RESULTS
IN PRIMARILY VFR CONDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...GUSTY WINDS. EVENING SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST.

SAT...EARLY AM SHSN/REDUCED CIGS POSS AT KBFD/KJST.

SUN/MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010-
011-017-024-033.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

543 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OVR THE MIDWEST. SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS/MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. AT KBFD...UPSLOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD EVEN YIELD
A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS LATE THIS AM. THE OTHER ISSUE OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LLWS OVER WESTERN PA...AS A WEAKENING LL JET
MOVES IN FROM OHIO. BASED ON MDL SOUNDINGS...HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT
KBFD/KJST BTWN 10Z-15Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...GUSTY WINDS. EVENING SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST.

SAT...EARLY AM SHSN/REDUCED CIGS POSS AT KBFD/KJST.

SUN/MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010-
011-017-024-033.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1115 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE CONTINUED WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ONCE AGAIN WITH MIXING. ONLY EXPECTING MODEST
PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND WITH 925 AND 850 HPA
WINDS REMAINING NEAR 30 AND 40-45 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...EXPECT WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LAT MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL BRING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON TO FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. NAM SHOWS A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY NEAR THE CLOUD LAYER...WHILE THE RUC AND GFS ARE A
LITTLE BIT MORE STABLE. WITH CLOUD DECK ONLY AT 2000 FEET OR
SO...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH EVAPORATION OF ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS.
THEREFORE...HAVE A MENTION OF SPRINKLES NEAR MARSHALL TO WINDOM FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL BE A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
WINDS REMAINING STRONGER ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE...WILL BE WARMER
THERE BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

SEASONALLY PLEASANT WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS QUASI-ZONAL AT THE END OF WEEK...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TO TODAY...HOWEVER DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO IMPROVE A
FEW DEGREES. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN PARTICULAR WILL BE MILD WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE AT AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS WEEKEND UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW SOME MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN TO LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE SWINGING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS POTENTIALLY CLIPS OUR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE IN HOW QUICKLY THIS
TRANSLATES INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE QUICKEST...AND
WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM SHOW SIMILAR TIMING...THE GEM IS MUCH
FURTHER EAST. AS IT STANDS...OUR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW EAST OF I29 ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED HEADING INTO MID WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
CONFIDENCE REALLY STARTS TO DROP WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM AS
LONGER RANGE MODELS DEPICT VERY DIFFERENT TRACKS AND STRENGTHS OF
THIS FEATURE. ALL DO MATERIALIZE A STRONG AND LARGE CUT OFF
LOW...BUT WHETHER IT STALLS...TRACKS NORTHEAST OR MORE DUE EAST IS
TO BE SEEN. WILL LEAVE ALL BLEND POPS AS IS...AND WILL KEEP WATCHING
THE TRENDS OF THIS SYSTEM.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE LOWER END OF VFR RANGE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE BY SUNSET...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. FREQUENT NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038>040-050-
052>071.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-089-
097-098.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ081-
090.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ081-090.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-002-012-013-
020-021-031-032.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR IAZ003-
014-022.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ003-014-022.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

537 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038>040-050-
052>071.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-089-
097-098.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ081-
090.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ081-090.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-002-012-013-
020-021-031-032.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR IAZ003-
014-022.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ003-014-022.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

356 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN SHOULD EXIT FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY 09Z. STILL PERIODIC MVFR VISIBILITY IN THE RAIN
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR VISIBILITY IN BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WILL BE PREVALENT TO
START THE PERIOD...BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE STORM SYSTEM IN IOWA LIFTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES.

VERY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE SYSTEM
AS WELL. PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 40+ KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS THURSDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35KT. WINDS WILL FINALLY
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038>040-050-
052>071.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-089-
097-098.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ081-
090.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ081-090.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-002-012-013-
020-021-031-032.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR IAZ003-
014-022.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ003-014-022.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

549 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Cloud cover will increase tonight and Saturday. Expect ceilings to
remain VFR through Saturday morning. As moisture continues to
increase, light rain showers will develop across the area during
the afternoon. Carrying VCSH groups in the area TAFS for Saturday
afternoon, with ceilings lowering to or just above 3000 ft. Could
have some MVFR ceilings by late afternoon, but the better chance
for the lower ceilings should hold off until later in the evening.
Winds will be mostly from the southeast at 5-10 knots.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Weak shortwave will move into West Texas tonight and then across
West Central Texas on Saturday. The TTU WRF and the HRRR both show a
little more widespread rainfall as this wave passes than the larger
scale models. What showers that do develop will be battling some
very dry air at the surface, so the rain tonight may well evaporate
before reaching the ground. As low level moisture increases on
Saturday, the rain has a better and better chance of reaching the
ground. With this in mind, left the rain chances tonight very small
and confined to just the southwest counties. Increased rain chances
slightly for Saturday, especially for the eastern counties, and
pushed them northward across the I-20 corridor from Sweetwater to
Abilene. Overall though, most areas will see totals less than one
tenth of an inch.

Otherwise, cool conditions on Saturday with the additional rain and
cloud cover. Kept most areas in the 50s to around 60 for highs.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Sunday Night)

The combination of weak disturbances in west-southwest flow aloft
and isentropic lift/overrunning will bring a chance of showers and
few thunderstorms this weekend. The rainfall amounts will be light,
generally less than 1/10 of an inch for most areas...with local
amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch possible.

(Monday through Tuesday)

There will be a chance of thunderstorms Monday and Monday night and
then windy for Tuesday. The medium range models are indicating a
vigorous upper level trough developing over the western CONUS this
weekend, advancing east with the trough axis over the Southern
Rockies by 17/00Z. After that, strong mid to upper level ascent
spreads east into the Southern Plains Monday night into Tuesday
morning, along with a mid level speed max of 80 to 100 knots. At the
surface, a dryline/Pacific front will be just west of our area by
17/00Z. Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop
along the dryline late Monday afternoon into the evening and move
rapidly east across the area. A few storms may be severe due to
strong low and mid level shear and some instability. The PW values
of 1 to 1.25 inches may result in locally heavy rainfall across
mainly the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country. Most of the
storms should exit the area by late Monday night. A mid level dry
slot will follow for Tuesday, resulting in windy conditions with
gusts of 30 to 35 mph.

(Tuesday Night through Friday)

Looks like a quiet weather pattern with seasonable temperatures.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the upper 30s and 40s.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 44 58 50 62 / 5 30 20 50
San Angelo 46 57 52 65 / 20 40 20 50
Junction 48 57 51 65 / 10 40 30 40

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

1140 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BKN TO OVC SKIES
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS JUST NOW
PUSHING ACROSS KBRO. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR
KBRO THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
MORNING. VARIABLE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT AREA
TERMINALS WITH PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A LINE OF SHOWERS...
REPRESENTING THE TAIL END OF A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT...IS MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE TEXAS COAST AT 15 TO 20
MPH. SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS ARE ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THIS
PRODUCT GOES OUT...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY
NEAR DAWN OR NOT LONG THEREAFTER. THE HRRR IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS
EXTENDING FARTHER DOWN THE LINE INTO THE MID VALLEY RIGHT AFTER
DAWN...THEN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND CONCENTRATED OVER THE LOWER
VALLEY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. IN THE MEANTIME...PATCHY LIGHT TO MDT FOG HAS
SET UP ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FROPA.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 70 OVER THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO NEAR 80 AT BRO. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST WITH WHAT WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MULITLAYERED CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FADE BY MID AFTERNOON...
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER THE RANCHLANDS TO THE
UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY MORE TO NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN FROM THE 60S OVER THE UPPER VALLEY TO THE MID
70S OVER THE LOWER VALLEY. LOW END RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL NOT PUSH VERY MUCH
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A WEAK S/W TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INLAND SATURDAY THEN WEEKEND SUNDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND SFC FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS WEEKEND WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE SATURDAY THEN MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES. THAT S/W
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW. A MUCH STRONGER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY AND INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WSW DRY AIR AND CAPPING
WHICH WILL DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST BUT
EASTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. LIKE LAST NIGHT, FRONTAL TIMING LOOKS REASONABLE
BUT STRENGTH IS OF QUESTION. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ROUGHLY 6-12 HOURS
BEHIND THE PASSAGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BY DAY
BREAK...BRINGING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND MID MORNING. WILL
HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DAY. THE MAIN PUSH WILL BE
RATHER BRIEF HOWEVER...WITH WINDS DECREASING BACK BELOW 20 KNOTS
LATER IN THE DAY. SEAS WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF TIME TO REACT...
BUILDING TO SIX OR SEVEN FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THERE
MAY BE SOME REINFORCEMENT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OUT OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH SEAS ALSO GETTING ANOTHER CHANCE TO BUILD
WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COASTAL TROUGHING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS ELEVATED AND
WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 7 FEET /POSSIBLY WITH SWELL ADDED IN DUE TO
LONG EASTERLY FETCH/ SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS SUNDAY AND DISSIPATES BY MONDAY
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN WINDS...
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND SIX FEET. THEREFORE...
SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ130-132-135.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

58/61

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

925 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
MORNING. VARIABLE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT AREA
TERMINALS WITH PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015/

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ130-132-135.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

58/61

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

337 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A LINE OF SHOWERS...
REPRESENTING THE TAIL END OF A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT...IS MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE TEXAS COAST AT 15 TO 20
MPH. SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS ARE ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THIS
PRODUCT GOES OUT...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY
NEAR DAWN OR NOT LONG THEREAFTER. THE HRRR IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS
EXTENDING FARTHER DOWN THE LINE INTO THE MID VALLEY RIGHT AFTER
DAWN...THEN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND CONCENTRATED OVER THE LOWER
VALLEY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. IN THE MEANTIME...PATCHY LIGHT TO MDT FOG HAS
SET UP ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FROPA.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 70 OVER THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO NEAR 80 AT BRO. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST WITH WHAT WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MULITLAYERED CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FADE BY MID AFTERNOON...
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A WEAK S/W TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INLAND SATURDAY THEN WEEKEND SUNDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND SFC FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS WEEKEND WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE SATURDAY THEN MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES. THAT S/W
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW. A MUCH STRONGER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY AND INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WSW DRY AIR AND CAPPING
WHICH WILL DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST BUT
EASTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. LIKE LAST NIGHT, FRONTAL TIMING LOOKS REASONABLE
BUT STRENGTH IS OF QUESTION. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ROUGHLY 6-12 HOURS
BEHIND THE PASSAGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BY DAY
BREAK...BRINGING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND MID MORNING. WILL
HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DAY. THE MAIN PUSH WILL BE
RATHER BRIEF HOWEVER...WITH WINDS DECREASING BACK BELOW 20 KNOTS
LATER IN THE DAY. SEAS WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF TIME TO REACT...
BUILDING TO SIX OR SEVEN FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THERE
MAY BE SOME REINFORCEMENT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OUT OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH SEAS ALSO GETTING ANOTHER CHANCE TO BUILD
WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 68 74 68 / 30 20 30 30
BROWNSVILLE 80 66 75 66 / 30 20 40 40
HARLINGEN 80 65 75 65 / 30 20 30 30
MCALLEN 78 63 72 62 / 30 20 30 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 61 67 59 / 20 10 30 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 71 74 70 / 40 20 30 30

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-132-135.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BIRCHFIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1142 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.AVIATION...
FRONT MOVING THROUGH NOW WITH LINE OF SHOWERS. LOW CIGS NEAR AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE LINE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR CATEGORY. WINDS THEN LOOK TO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AS
SOME STRONGER WINDS...NOW OVER METROPLEX...MAKE THERE WAY DOWN
THIS WAY. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A GUSTY DAY...BUT NO ISSUES WITH
CIGS OR LOWER VSBYS GIVEN MUCH DRIER AIR.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015/

UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
REALLY IT IS A SAD LOOKING LINE OF STORMS STRETCHING FROM
LIVINGSTON SW BACK TO BELLVILLE. CAPPING HAS BEEN TOO STRONG AS
BOTH 00Z CRP/LCH SOUNDINGS SHOW. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER AS
WELL. AS A RESULT WE GET A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG THE DRYLINE. 03Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ACTUAL COLD FRONT ACROSS
N TX FROM NEAR ABILENE TO DFW WITH DRYLINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF IT. ACTUAL COLD FRONT SHOULD CATCH UP WITH THE DRYLINE
LATER TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SE TX. LATEST HRRR RUNS SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND LINE OF SHOWERS.
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.

IT LOOKS LIKE ANY IMPACTS FROM THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
LIMITED TO SOME 30 MPH WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AS THE MOVE
THROUGH HOUSTON LATER TONIGHT CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

AVIATION...
LOOKING FOR A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION TO MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACRS
THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
TIMING FROM 02Z-03Z FOR CLL TO 06Z-08Z FOR GLS AND LBX. OUT AHEAD
OF THAT JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS UNDER THE CAP. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE LINE GOES THROUGH.
FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER FOR CXO...UTS...AND CLL...WHERE CAP
NOT AS STRONG BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH THE LINE PASSAGE FOR
OTHER TAF SITES AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THUNDER IS
NEEDED. HAVE TREATED AS MODERATE SHOWERS FOR THE TAF SITES WITHOUT
THUNDER...AND MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THOSE NORTHERN SITES.
BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 1 PM...A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A WELL DEFINED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE LOW INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT TRAILS WELL BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THAT SAID...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
THE CATALYST FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS SE TX. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH COUPLED WITH A
RIGHT REAR QUAD AND PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.70 AND 2.00 INCHES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A SWATH OF SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP BY 00Z AND CROSS THE CWA
BY 06Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AT A STEADY CLIP SO EXCESSIVE RAIN
IS NOT EXPECTED. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE AND STILL
NOT CONVINCED THE CAP WILL COMPLETELY ERODE BUT SOME SIGN THAT
THE CAP HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN IN THE ARKLATEX AND THIS WEAKENING
TREND DOES EXTEND SW INTO SE TX. FEEL THAT EVENTUALLY THE
DYNAMICAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE JET AND THE STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE
WILL OVERCOME THE WEAKENING CAP AND SHRA/TSRA WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AROUND 00Z. RAISED POPS TO 70 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA WITH LOWER POPS TO THE W-SW. SPC STILL HAS MUCH OF
THE AREA OUTLOOKED IN MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK. THE RISK IS SMALL
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANIED THE
STRONGER STORMS IN HOUSTON/TRINITY COUNTIES THIS EVENING.

THE COOLER AIR WILL LAG A BIT UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONT ARRIVES LATE
TONIGHT...SO LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THU-FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND LOW LEVEL MSTR BEGINS TO RETURN. THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES SW AND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN BACK TO THE REGION ON SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE
TEXAS TECH WRF IS BRINGING A SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
ON FRIDAY BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH MSTR WITH A DRY
NE SFC FLOW IN PLACE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ANOTHER
EPISODE OF RAIN. A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND KICK EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ON TUESDAY AS IT CROSSES NORTH TEXAS.
DEEP MSTR COUPLED WITH A SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE AND SHARP SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. THE DYNAMICS ON MON NITE/EARLY TUES LOOK RATHER
IMPRESSIVE AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THE
BOUNDARY LATE MON NITE. 43

MARINE...
EVENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER SLIGHTLY WEST AS A
CENTRAL TEXAS COLD FRONT ENTERS EASTERN TEXAS. THE FRONT IS TIMED TO
MAKE IT OFF THE COAST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM THURSDAY...
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS TO ADVISORY
LEVELS. THE EARLY THURSDAY FORECAST IS FOR SUSTAINED 20-25 KNOT
WINDS...GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS...TO IMPACT THE LOCAL BAYS AND GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS BACKING HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
OVER THE REGION AND THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY
EARLY THIS WEEKEND...A LONG DURATION MODERATE NORTHEAST FETCH WILL
SET UP OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED TIDES AND HIGHER GULF WAVE HEIGHTS...AN AVERAGE 4 FEET
(NEARSHORE)TO 7 FEET (OFFSHORE) INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 31

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 53 71 51 64 48 / 40 0 0 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 59 72 53 67 50 / 60 0 0 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 66 70 61 68 58 / 50 0 0 10 10

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1242 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST THURSDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL BE MAKING MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND DRIES UP. MAIN CONCERNS TO MONITOR TODAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO
EFFECT AT NOON FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAINLY FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT BELIEVE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE PIEDMONT. WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON TEMPS EAST OF THE RIDGE. GUIDANCE AND WARM AIR ALOFT SUPPORTS
READINGS INTO THE 70S BUT CLOUD COVER MAY NECESSITATE A SLIGHT
TRIM SO WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE.

PREVIOUS AFD...

COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING INTO CENTRAL TN/KY SHOULD ZIP EAST...CROSSING
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE JETTING TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AXIS OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOKS TO APPROACH
THE FAR WESTERN CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH BEST LIFT/DEEPER
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FAR NW AND POINTS NORTH EARLY ON.
APPEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND WILL BE WEAKER GIVEN LESS
UPPER SUPPORT SO TRIMMED BACK POPS A LITTLE WITH BEST CHANCES
ESPCLY NORTH BETWEEN 10-14Z PER LATEST HRRR WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.
COULD ALSO BE A BROKEN BAND OF SHRA ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT LATER
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO KEPT A SMALL SWATH OF LOW POPS THROUGH
ABOUT NOON FOR NOW. THUNDER POTENTIAL GIVEN STABILITY ALSO QUITE
SMALL BUT MAINTAINED A MENTION GIVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES TO
THE NORTHWEST.

ONCE THE BOUNDARY CROSSES...A QUICK SHOT OF SUBSIDENCE DRYING IN ORDER
AIDED BY A PASSING 3-5H SPEED MAX TO THE NORTHWEST AND NVA. THIS WILL
BE THE PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR A 3-5 HOUR SURGE IN SURFACE WINDS AS
DRYING PUNCHES IN WHILE THE 85H JET VEERS WESTERLY AND INCREASES TO 40-
45 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH COLD
ADVECTION...GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER HIGH INVERSION WITH MAX DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM ONLY TOUCHING THE RIDGES ABOVE 3K FEET FOR THE MOST PART.
LATEST LOCAL MOS SCHEME ALSO NOT PRODUCING MUCH ADVISORY CRITERIA SINCE
PARAMETERS A LITTLE OUT OF SYNC...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON TIMING AND DEEP
MIXING WOULD SUGGEST PERHAPS ENOUGH THREAT PER PAST EVENTS TO INCLUDE A
WIND ADVISORY HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM MIDDAY ON. OTRW LAGGING COLD
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPE MIXING
LIKELY TO AGAIN PUSH HIGHS TO AT OR ABOVE MOS. COULD EVEN SEE SPOTS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BREAK 70 SO BOOSTED HIGHS A GOOD CATEGORY OR
TWO WITH SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PER LATEST EC MOS.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF
THE 85H BOUNDARY...REPRESENTING THE ONSET OF THE BETTER COLD
ADVECTION. THIS ALONG WITH A LOWERING INVERSION...PROGGED 50 KTS
AT 85H...AND A POSSIBLE BREAKING WAVE SCENARIO WITHIN MORE CROSS
BARRIER FLOW SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS ESPCLY
LATE. COULD EVEN SEE HIGHER WINDS GO INTO THE FOOTHILLS WITH
VALUES NEAR WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
THE VA HIGHLANDS. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EARLIER WIND
ADVISORY HEADLINE INTO TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONS NEEDED
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE TODAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW SOME RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
WESTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR MUCH MORE THAN
SOME SPOTTY PRECIP. THUS LEAVING OUT POPS.

ELSEWHERE...SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR ESPCLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT
STILL NOT ALL THAT COLD GIVEN SLOWNESS OF THE COLD AIR TO CROSS THE
BLUE RIDGE AND ONGOING MIXING ALONG WITH WESTERN CLOUDS. THEREFORE
RUNNING CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY 40S EXCEPT A
FEW 30S FAR WEST WHERE MORE EMBEDDED WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

WILL START FRIDAY MORNING OFF WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE RIDGETOPS...AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST SOON AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
WINDSPEEDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. CONSIDERING THIS...EXPECT WE WILL
MAINTAIN GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY TO 50 MPH ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. THE
STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL HELP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
PIEDMONT WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOW 60S. THAT
STATED...GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER.

DURING FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...THIS ONE ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND
THEREFORE COLDER. LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER
AIR WILL EXPOSE MORE OF THE TERRAIN TO STRONG WINDS AS COMPARED TO
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE THE STRONGEST WINDS
OF THE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...WHERE THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS CAN EXPECT 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS...WHILE THE RIDGETOPS
WILL REACH 50 TO 55 MPH...POSSIBLY 60 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS. THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS DAWN
ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

GIVEN ONLY THE BRIEF LULL BETWEEN THE SURGES OF STRONG WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...FELT IT WAS MORE PRACTICAL TO
LEAVE THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE STRAIGHT THROUGH TO SATURDAY
MORNING. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY...BUT NOT QUITE REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY...PASSING NEARLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SETTLING
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL BRING
WITH IT DRY WEATHER UNDER NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING FOR NEARLY OUR ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMUP AS
WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MONDAY...MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER BUT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE ON TAP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET PHASES OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND A
DEEP TROF DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST...CULMINATING IN A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL SET US UP IN PROLONGED DEEP MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DRIFTS TO OUR EAST AND GIVES US
MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE LOW LEVELS.

THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING
MAINLY BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE BEING INDICATED BY GUIDANCE TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AS ALWAYS...DETAILS IN TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF FEATURES IS
SKETCHY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS POTENTIAL HYDRO EVENT CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES. THE COLD FRONT USHERING
IN THE STRONG WINDS IS THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION AND KBLF/KLWB/KBCB
ARE ALREADY GUSTING. EXPECT KROA TO START SEEING STRONG GUSTS
WITHIN THE HOUR AND KLYH/KDAN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS COLD AIR SURGES IN OVERNIGHT
AND THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE SO WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY FOR
KROA/KBCB/KBLF. THE GUSTS WILL TAPER A BIT TONIGHT AT KLWB AS
THEIR SOMEWHAT AS DIURNAL COOLING IN SHELTERED LOCATION WILL
INHIBIT GOOD MIXING...AND KLYH/KDAN SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND
LOSE THE GUSTY WINDS. AFTER DAYBREAK DIURNAL MIXING BRINGS THE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS BACK TO ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. GUSTS IN THE 30KT TO 40KT RANGE SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET FROM
THE RIDGE WEST WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES TO THE EAST.

THE SKY SHOULD BE VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THIS WILL GENERATE MVFR
OR LOWER CIGS AT KBCB/KBLF/KLWB LATER TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THESE CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE AND ALL SITES WILL BE VFR
ON FRIDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SUBSEQUENT WAVES SLIDE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAINLY VFR WILL
PREVAIL INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
BY LATER SATURDAY AND BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...MBS/JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

936 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST THURSDAY...

PREVIOUS AFD...

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM EST THURSDAY...

BASED ON LATEST MODELS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
MENTION A WHILE LONGER AT MOST SITES UNTIL THINGS MIX OUT ALLOWING
STRONGER GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE...MAINLY AFTER 14Z/9AM. EXPECT
KBLF TO KEEP PERIODIC GUSTS ONGOING SO LEFT OUT THERE AS WELL AS
KDAN WHERE EAST OF THE BEST JET ALOFT EARLY ON. OTHERWISE SHOWERS
REMAIN LIMITED TO MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KBLF-KLWB ATTM BUT
EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING IN EITHER A VCSH OR PREVAILING MAINLY VFR
SHOWER MENTION AT BOTH THE SOUTHEAST WEST VA LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS
AS FAR EAST AS KBCB THIS MORNING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALSO
POSSIBLE BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SWINGS EAST BY MIDDAY. A BAND OF
CLOUDS MAY ALSO SWING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPCLY NORTHERN SECTIONS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THINKING LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE WITH
CIGS MOSTLY VFR. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR
AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AS A PUNCH OF DRY
AIR WORKS EAST.

OTHER BIG ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE THE GUSTY WEST WINDS AT
TIMES BOTH ALONG AND ESPCLY JUST BEHIND THE PASSING BOUNDARY. SOME
GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER RIDGES LIKE HSP/GEV TO
KROA...WITH MAINLY SUSTAINED 10-20KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT THE
TERMINALS.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING COLDER
AIR AND SOME DEGREE OF UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. DO EXPECT THE INVERSION TO TRAP SOME OF THIS INTO THE
LOWER LEVELS RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VA
SITES AND PERHAPS OUT TO KBCB GIVEN SUCH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT VFR ELSEWHERE BUT STILL QUITE
WINDY MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 KTS POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES
ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SUBSEQUENT WAVES SLIDE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD ALSO
PROLONG THE UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS AT KBLF/KLWB INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR WINS OUT. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BY LATER SATURDAY
AND BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

617 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EST THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM EST THURSDAY...

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-
002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

418 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EST THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MODELS FAVOR STRONG LOW LVL WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERSION IN THE
09-14Z TIME FRAME. THEREFORE KEPT LLWS IN THE TAFS. EXCEPTIONS ARE
BLF/DAN. BLF AS STRONG WINDS WILL BE WITH SHOWERS...AND DAN WILL
BE OUTSIDE THE CORE OF THE LLJ. STILL AN DECENT IMPACT ON AVIATION
IN THE REGION IN THE MORNING REGARDING TURBULENCE AND SHEAR.

IN TERMS OF THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL SEE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB WITH SHOWERS BETWEEN
12-18Z THU.

SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS AND OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THU AFTERNOON. BIG
ISSUE BEHIND IT WILL BE THE GUSTY WEST WINDS. SOME GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER RIDGES LIKE HSP/GEV...WITH MAINLY SUSTAINED
10-15KT GUSTS 20-30KTS AT THE TERMINALS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ASIDE FROM MVFR UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING KLWB
AND KBLF...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WILL PREVAIL MONDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BY LATER SATURDAY AND BECOMING
LIGHT ON SUNDAY.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SEATTLE WA

350 AM PST THU NOV 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND WET FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY WET AND
WINDY WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RIVER
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG WESTERLY JET STREAM IS POISED TO SEND A
DRENCHING RAIN ACROSS W WA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME JUST OFFSHORE AT 11Z/3 AM.
RAIN SHOULD REACH THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING THEN BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LATER THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH REPORTED THIS
PLUME HAS TAPPED INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE W PACIFIC AND
THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN
THE PLUME.

A STRONG WARM FRONT EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL REACH THE
COAST THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS W WA WILL TIGHTEN
TODAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. RECENT MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE SHOWN
SPOTTY WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOW END HIGH WIND WARNING RANGE OVER THE N
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A HIGH WIND WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE N INTERIOR FOR S WINDS 20-40 MPH. THE MOST
RECENT HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS PEAK GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 55 MPH.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG THE COASTLINES AND OVER THE
ISLANDS. ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF W WA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW END WIND ADVISORY RANGE...OR 20-35 MPH GUSTS 45 MPH. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BUT WILL
STILL TOUCH THE LOW END ADVISORY RANGE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 2500 FEET OVER THE MT BAKER AREA AND
3000 FEET AROUND MT RAINIER. PRECIP RATES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
THOSE HIGHER ROADS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BE ABOVE 5000 FEET BY EARLY EVENING. FOR THE LOWER CENTRAL
CASCADE PASSES THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TOO RAPIDLY TO GET MUCH SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE THE COPIOUS RAIN THAT WILL FALL THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MINOR MODEL VARIATION
ON TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST INDICATES 8-10 INCHES WITH OVER THE OLYMPICS WITH BULLSEYES
OF 14-15 INCHES FOR THE 48 HOUR PERIOD 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. THIS IS STILL USING A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS THAT
IS TILTED TOWARDS THE MODELS WITH HIGHER QPF. THE CASCADES ALSO HAS
8-10 INCHES IN GENERAL...WITH BULLSEYES OF 11-12 INCHES. THE RECENT
TREND CONTINUES TO PUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE N CASCADES FROM
SNOHOMISH COUNTY NORTHWARD. WITH THIS MUCH RAIN...FLOODING OF MAIN
STEM RIVERS IS LIKELY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH POSSIBLE
FLOODING ON OLYMPIC RIVERS FRIDAY MORNING...AND ON N CASCADE RIVERS
LATER ON FRIDAY.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH THE MOISTURE
PLUME TO THE SE ON SATURDAY...USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS. HOWEVER ANOTHER RECENT CHANGE IN THE MODELS IS TO SLOW THE SE
SHIFT OF THE PLUME...THUS EXTEND THE RAIN A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SATURDAY. KAM

.LONG TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS20 SHOWS AT LEAST TWO UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH...WHICH
SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE AREA.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2000 FEET.

THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SUGGEST AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT NOW DIFFER ON HOW THE PATTERN WILL UNFOLD. THE ECMWF
STILL SHOWS ANOTHER WESTERLY JET STREAM AND MOISTURE PLUME REACHING
THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY...BUT THIS ONE HAS A COOLER AIR MASS AND IS
SHORTER IN DURATION. THE GFS HAD A SIMILAR SOLUTION 24 HOURS
AGO...BUT NOW HAS A MORE TYPICAL WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. KAM

.HYDROLOGY...THE FORECAST HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE OLYMPICS...AND OVER THE CASCADES TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY REMAINS ON TRACK. FOR BOTH THE OLYMPICS AND
CASCADES...GENERALLY 8-10 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE 48
HOUR PERIOD FROM 18Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. THERE WERE
BULLEYES OF 14-15 INCHES OVER THE OLYMPICS AND 11-12 INCHES OVER THE
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE RAPIDLY TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY REACHING RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET TONIGHT.

THIS IS ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING ON MANY AREA RIVERS. THIS
INCLUDES ANY RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE CASCADES FROM THE NOOKSACK IN
THE NORTH TO THE COWLITZ IN THE SOUTH...AS WELL AS ANY OLYMPIC
PENINSULA RIVERS. EVEN THE RIVERS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUCH AS
THE CHEHALIS AND ITS TRIBUTARIES COULD FLOOD.

RIVER FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SOME RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE
OLYMPICS BY FRIDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAIN BEGINS OVER THE CASCADES
TONIGHT WITH FLOODING ON CASCADE RIVERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. CURRENT
RIVER MODELS SHOW FLOODING ON ALL RIVERS FROM THE NOOKSACK SOUTH TO
THE SNOQUALMIE. SOUTH OF THERE RIVERS GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE BUT
GENERALLY DO NOT RISE OVER FLOOD STAGE. THE MODEL ALSO SHOWS SOME
RIVERS ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA ARE LIKELY TO REACH FLOOD
STAGE...INCLUDING THE ELWHA AND THE SKOKOMISH. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES THAT HAVE MAIN STEM RIVERS. BURKE/KAM

.AVIATION...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AIR MASS
STABLE AND BECOMING MOIST ALL LEVELS TODAY.

KSEA...MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS A FRONT REACHES THE AREA BUT CEILINGS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE DAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY
TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WIND 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 22
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 32 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER

.MARINE...STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH GALES FORECAST FOR THE WATERS. WEST SWELL 20-23 FEET
WILL REACH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...THEN SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON MONDAY. SCHNEIDER

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT MOST WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES.
HIGH WIND WARNING NORTH INTERIOR
WIND ADVISORY COAST AND REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CENTRAL COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS EXCEPT CENTRAL STRAIT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

524 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER
TROUGHING MOVING EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES HOWEVER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH A WIDESPREAD OVERCAST OVER THE NORTHEAST THREE QUARTERS
OF THE STATE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING NE WI AND THINK DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE SNOW BELTS...BUT ALSO
THINK THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE 21-00Z TIME PERIOD. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING EAST OVER WESTERN
WI AHEAD OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVER MINNESOTA. SOME
BREAKS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS. FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS...AND ALSO TEMPS.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
ADVANCEMENT OF MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCELERATE A CLEARING TREND THIS
EVENING. WILL ONLY SEE THE PASSAGE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS EXIT. TEMPS ARE RATHER TRICKY SINCE WINDS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH...AND NOW THERE IS FRESH SNOWPACK IN THE
SNOWBELT AREAS. TEMPS COULD EASILY FALL INTO THE TEENS IF THERE IS A
PERIOD OF CALM WINDS...WHICH COULD HAPPEN NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS.
ELSEWHERE...LOW TO MID 20S LOOK ABOUT RIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ADVECT IN WARMER
AIR. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. THOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL GENERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S ON
SUNDAY...BUT ALSO CARRY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION WITH
THE MODERATING TEMPS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THEN THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. SIMILAR TO THE RECENT SYSTEM THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND SWEEP THROUGH BY FRIDAY EVENING...USHERING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NE WI THIS EVENING. LINGERING LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH WILL ALSO TAPER OFF EARLY.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING
GUSTY SW WINDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL BEYOND THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KTS ARE STILL OCCURRING...BUT
APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IS TOO LOW TO
CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING. WILL DOWNGRADE THE WARNING INTO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE LATE. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS
AND BUILDING WAVES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........MPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1150 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE INHERITED HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE BORDEAUX AREA OF WESTERN PLATTE COUNTY FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE PROGS
SUGGEST STRONG WINDS AND THE GFS PROGGED SOUNDINGS FOR THAT AREA
SHOW 45 KNOTS OF WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE...INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN A HIGH WIND EVENT AT BORDEAUX LATE TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO GRIDDED FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON TRENDS. BOOSTED SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND
ADJUSTED WINDS ESPECIALLY AT ARLINGTON WHERE PESKY STRONG WINDS
CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 55 MPH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 846 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

WE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR BORDEAUX
FROM 09Z TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR FROM CHEYENNE TO WHEATLAND. THE 06Z NAM RUN
STILL SHOWS H8-H75 FLOW AROUND 50 KTS...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HINTING AT A STRONG MOUNTAINTOP INVERSION WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO WINDS. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO SHOWS UP TO 45 KT WINDS
IN WESTERN PLATTE COUNTY AT 10Z...BEFORE THE GRADIENT WILL BE AT
ITS PEAK.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS AM. NUMEROUS HIGHWAY OBS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN RAWLINS AND CHEYENNE...EVEN THOUGH LOW-LEVEL CAG TO
CPR HEIGHT GRADIENTS FELL BELOW 40 METERS AROUND 09Z. VISIBILITY HAS
IMPROVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IS
NO LONGER BEING MET. HOWEVER...THESE STRONG WINDS ARE COMBINING WITH
AREAS OF BLACK ICE TO CREATE DANGEROUS TRAVEL. WITH SECTIONS OF I-80
STILL CLOSED TO LIGHTWEIGHT/HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES...OPTED TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 16Z AS THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING TRAFFIC AND SUNLIGHT
BEGINS TO WARM ROAD SURFACES. WINDS SHOULD ALSO COME DOWN BY THEN AS
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H7 FLOW FINALLY WEAKENING BELOW 40 KTS.

NO OTHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE CWA. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH LLVL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH WINDS ARE DEFINITELY A CONCERN
BETWEEN 09Z-15Z FRI...MAINLY FOR BORDEAUX. THE NAM 850 MILLIBAR CAG-
CPR GRADIENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE BELOW 50 METERS. HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM ADVECTION HELPING TO ESTABLISH A STRONG
MOUNTAINTOP INVERSION OVER THE GAP. 45-50 KTS OF NEAR-SFC FLOW COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HIGH WIND WARNING IF TRAPPING OCCURS. OPTED
NOT TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH ATTM...BUT A FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER BORDEAUX IS CONTRIBUTING
TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WITH FAIRLY LIGHT...WARM WESTERLY WINDS. WIDESPREAD 50
DEGREE READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE EVENT FREE IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT WITH
A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS AND TYPICAL BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO GO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WORKS
EAST OFF THE WEST COAST. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS ACROSS THE
SOUTH END OF THIS TROUGH MONDAY HELPING TO BRING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT DEPICTING
THIS STRONG FRONT (WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S BEHIND
IT ON MONDAY) MOVING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. WITH
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH FAIRLY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WE EXPECT TO SEE
SNOW MOVING IN ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...SPREADING EAST ONTO THE
PLAINS AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER JET...AND WHERE THE
THE SURFACE TO MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO DEEPEN...RIGHT
NOW THIS DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR SNOW SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA. IF
THE MODELS ARE RIGHT...THE HIGHER TOTALS (6+ INCHES) LOOK TO SET
UP TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST LATER ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS CLOSE OFF
THIS SYSTEM AS A DEEP NEGATIVE TILT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH A
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INDICATED OVER WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH LATE WEEK. THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED
ENSEMBLE BLEND FORECAST OF LOW TO MIDRANGE POPS FOR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEST AND LOWER POP RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX EAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. DAILY TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMALS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 50 KTS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT SOME
STRONG WINDS MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS INTERSTATE 25...SUCH AS
AROUND BORDEAUX. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S/60S ARE LIKELY ON SAT/SUN. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL TO 15 PERCENT...CREATING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1052 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 846 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WYZ106.

NE...NONE.

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1024 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 846 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LIGHTER WINDS TODAY THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. OVERALL
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS AT RAWLINS AND LARAMIE 18G28KT THIS MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS
AT REMAINING AIRPORTS WILL PICK UP A BIT 15G25KT MID TO LATE
MORNING...BUT MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE WERE SEEING YESTERDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

848 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

647 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ110-
115>117.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

352 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION OCCURING THIS EARLY MORNING WITH ABOUT
40 KTS AT 925 MB. A WARM LAYER AT 925 MB IS OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN ERN ND AND THIS IS SHOWING UP WITH
TEMPS WITH LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WALHALLA
TO WESTERN GRAND FORKS COUNTY. 925 MB WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 12Z AND
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WINDS AT THE SFC AND AT 925MB ARE PRETTY
LIGHT. FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION WITH A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. BUT
LACK OF A GOOD WIND COMBINED WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS LENDS ONE TO BE
A BIT CONCERNED ON HOW WARM TEMPS WILL BE. THE EXPIREMENTAL HRRR
DOES WELL IN MOST OF THESE CIRCUMSTANCES IN THE PAST AND IT SHOWS
AN AREA OF 60-63 IN THE JAMESTOWN/VALLEY CITY AREA TO NEAR
FARGO...AND A BIT COOLER AREA FROM LANGDON ND INTO NW MN. LEANED
TOWARD A CONSHORT AND HRRR TEMP FCST FOR TODAY. SOME SOME THINNING
OF HIGH CLOUDS IN SW ND AND BEST SUN TODAY WILL BE SE ND.

HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH.
LACK OF A WIND TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO DAYS AS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE DECREASES OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TODAY AS MIXING IS QUITE LIMITED AND SFC WIND DIRECTION IS
SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

LOOK FOR A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT AS 500 MB VORT
MAX MOVES NORTHEAST AND THE NORTH INTO MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. PER
PREV FCST SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO ERN ND
AND NW MN MONDAY...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS. DID GO ALONG WITH WFO DLH
AND INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR LIGHT RAIN IN FAR ERN FCST AREA AS SOME
MODELS INDICATE LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN BEFORE
12Z MON. SOUTH BREEZE AND MILD ON MONDAY DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SPLIT LONG WAVE PATTERN HAD THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/DESERT
SOUTHWEST. NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFIES WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF AK SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. SPLIT PATTERN
PHASES UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING THE SAME OR
SLOWER. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS. SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED. WINDS WERE INCREASED
FOR WED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR TUE. TEMPS WERE
DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR WED AND DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR THU AND FRI.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS BLO 12K FT ANTICIPATED.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

124 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE STATE BY THE MORNING AND
BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOL
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
STARTING TO SEE THE SIGNS OF DIMINISHING SHSN OVER THE NW. HRRR
AND RECENT RUNS OF OTHER MESO MDLS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT KILLING
THE REAL ACCUMULATIONS BY 09Z. BUT THE WIDEST BAND OF ALL SO FAR
HAS JUST BEGUN TO SLIP INTO NRN PA THANKS TO A SLIGHT NRLY SHIFT
TO THE WIND. IT NOW LOOKS MORE CELLULAR THAN LINEAR OVER WRN NY.
OVERALL...THE ADVY LOOKS WELL PLACED/TIMED. MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.

PREV...
HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. IT WILL STAY GUSTY BUT
A SLOW DECLINE IN WIND SPEED IS INDICATED.

WE PLAN ON UPPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT INTO THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE...WITH AN ADVISORY IN THE WORKS FOR WARREN AND MCKEAN. WARM
GROUND SHOULD PRECLUDE HIGHER AMOUNTS.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUING ACROSS REGION.

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN AND NOT OUT OF CANADA...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL RUN ABOUT
3-8F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MAXES ON SAT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER NWRN AREAS...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES BLEEDING INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER AND GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE OUR WEATHER TURN MORE
UNSETTLED THRU THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
14/06Z...SFC WINDS FROM 270-310 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
BETWEEN 20-25KTS TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TONIGHT. IFR
CONDS IN SHSN AT BFD SHOULD TREND TOWARD MVFR AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES
BEHIND SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THE OTHER POTENTIAL TROUBLE SPOT WILL
BE JST WITH MVFR CIGS AND OCNL IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. LOW VFR
CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL EAST OF THE MTNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TERMINALS MDT/LNS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE TERRAIN EFFECTS. CANT
RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT AOO/UNV. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
N/W AIRSPACE WILL END BY THE AFTERNOON BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LKLY
PERSIST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. VFR FLYING WILL CONTINUE EAST OF
THE MTNS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SHOWERS/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-
005.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

108 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015

PREV...
HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. IT WILL STAY GUSTY BUT
A SLOW DECLINE IN WIND SPEED IS INDICATED.

WE PLAN ON UPPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT INTO THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE...WITH AN ADVISORY IN THE WORKS FOR WARREN AND MCKEAN. WARM
GROUND SHOULD PRECLUDE HIGHER AMOUNTS.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUING ACROSS REGION.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER AND GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE OUR WEATHER TURN MORE
UNSETTLED THRU THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT...AS STRONG STORM
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW ENG PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. BUFKIT AND
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 20-25KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SHOWERS/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP LATE.

.CLIMATE...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY PUT US BELOW NORMAL FOR A 7-DAY
STRETCH FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID-OCTOBER.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-
005.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

356 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP 300MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW
A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE TWO SHORT-WAVES
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ELEVATED SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY WITH
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS CONCLUSION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
AN INCREASED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR THE MOST PART.

WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE I-35
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING BOTH AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METRO AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH THE
THERMOMETER REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL PULSES OF ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION AND INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER SYSTEM.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
PUSH FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT OUR WAY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN A FORM
OF SQUALL LINE. THE LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY
AND THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 4 AM AND 6 AM. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY MID
MORNING ON TUESDAY. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. CANT RULE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS WITH STORM RAINFALL
TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS.

A DRY AIRMASS AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY WITH FEW SPOTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. A DRY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND BRINGS ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOL AIR FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 53 69 63 76 / 40 40 30 40 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 52 70 63 77 / 40 40 30 40 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 54 72 65 79 / 30 40 30 40 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 52 66 62 74 / 50 50 30 50 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 56 66 63 77 / 30 30 40 50 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 51 67 62 75 / 50 50 30 50 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 55 70 65 78 / 20 40 30 50 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 53 70 64 77 / 40 40 30 40 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 66 54 72 65 78 / 20 30 20 30 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 65 55 71 66 78 / 30 40 30 40 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 66 56 73 66 80 / 20 40 30 30 40

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

1139 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Cloud cover has increased over the area tonight, and scattered
light rain showers were entering our southwestern counties. The
showers may affect KSOA overnight, where a VCSH group has been
added. During the day Saturday, showers are expected to increase
in coverage, and carrying VCSH groups at all of the TAF sites.
Ceilings will gradually lower overnight and Saturday, and should
be in the 3500 to 4000 ft range by late afternoon. Scattered
showers will continue Saturday night, with ceilings lowering to
or below 3000 ft. Winds will be mostly from the southeast through
the next 24 hours.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Otherwise, cool conditions on Saturday with the additional rain and
cloud cover. Kept most areas in the 50s to around 60 for highs.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Sunday Night)

(Monday through Tuesday)

(Tuesday Night through Friday)

Looks like a quiet weather pattern with seasonable temperatures.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the upper 30s and 40s.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 44 58 50 62 / 5 30 20 50
San Angelo 46 57 52 65 / 20 40 20 50
Junction 48 57 51 65 / 10 40 30 40

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1056 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL PULL OUT OF FAR NE WI NEAR THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP
WHERE A SNOW COVER EXISTS IN FAR NC WI...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...
ALLOWING GUSTY SW WINDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING.

SOME MARGINAL LLWS WILL DEVELOP SAT EVG...AS WSW WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 35 KTS JUST OFF THE SFC.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........MPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

444 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES DEAL WITH NAILING DOWN CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A SHIELD OF CIRRUS WAS STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER WHAT WAS EARLIER EXPECTED
THAT COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
WI...WITH WINDS NOW SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE FA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION ACTUALLY SAW A SLOW RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER SPREADING IN. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE MAIN
UPPER JET LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15MPH ARE
LIKELY DURING THE DAY. FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY...A MIX DOWN FROM 950MB
OFF THE RAP INDICATED A DECENT SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI. ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN...DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 6OS /BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE STRONGEST THERE/...WHILE EASTERN MN SEES HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. WESTERN WI WILL BE COOLER...WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED AND A
FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S. WITH A WARMER AIR
MASS IN PLACE...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BY FAR THE BEST DAY OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS COMBINED WITH A NW-SE
ORIENTED H5 RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY
CLR SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. THOUGH A
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL SLIGHTLY TRAIL THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE
REGION...IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT TEMPERATURES RISING TO
THE UPR 50S TO ARND 60.

FROM MONDAY ON THROUGH THE WEEK...THE SCENARIO CHANGES DUE TO A
PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS MOVING ONSHORE THE W COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET BECOMES A MORE ACTIVE
CYCLOGENESIS PARTICIPANT. GOMEX MOISTURE RUSHING INTO THE AREA MON
IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE TROF...MAINLY WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN THE ARRIVING TROF AND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR HIGH AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL LATER IN THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCOMING TROF.
EVEN BEFORE IT ARRIVES...SEVERAL MIDLVL TROF AXES RIDING NEWD
WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPARKING OFF SHWRS MON INTO MON
NIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASED PWATS TO THE 1-1.25 INCH AREA...IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD MOD-HVY POCKETS OF RAIN.

THE MAIN ACTION THEN COMMENCES TUE AS SIGNIFICANT PVA IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROF...PLUS THE DEEPENING OF THE TROF ITSELF INCLUDING THE
FORMATION OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WITHIN IT BY MIDDAY TUE...WILL AID
IN CYCLOGENESIS OF A COMPLEX LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE PLAINS. THE
TROF WILL THEN KICK IT NEWD AND KEEP IT IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF...
MAKING FOR A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITHIN A HIGHLY
MOIST ATMOS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
THRU WED WHEN IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A CDFNT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE DEEP CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL SHIFT ENE
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. POTENT JETTING IN THE LOW-
AND MID-LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD LIFT WITHIN THE
ENVIRON OF HIGH MOISTURE TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FCST FOR WED ON INTO
THU.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF INCLUDING TSTMS FOR TUE WHEN PVA AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE GREATEST AND IN BEST CONJUNCTION WITH UPR
JETTING. HOWEVER...THE CONCERN IS THAT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH THE TSTMS INTO TUE NIGHT OR
EVEN WED. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON
THE OCCURRENCE OF TSTMS BETWEEN TUE AND WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON THE TIMING. ATTM...AM HIGHLIGHTING TUE FOR TSTMS BUT LATER
FCSTS COULD EASILY ADJUST IT TO LATER PERIODS.

AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE PROLONGED DURATION OF HAVING 12-HOUR
PERIODS WITH PWATS AROUND AND IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH MAY WELL
TRANSLATE TO RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES...POSSIBLY ISOLD 3-4
INCHES...THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL EJECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POINTS
EASTWARD LATE WED NIGHT THRU THU...CONFINING POPS TO MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA THU THROUGH FRI DUE TO WEAK WRAP-
AROUND TROF AXES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
ADVERTISE SOME DRY PERIODS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS
IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP OVER
CENTRAL NOAM. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DOWN MODIFIED POLAR AIR
INTO THE REGION...SPELLING A COOLING TREND THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS BEFORE SKIES CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT AND WINDS TAPER BELOW 7
KNOTS.

KMSP...NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND S AT 10G15KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-DZ POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G25KT.
TUE...MVFR WITH RA...IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 15G25KT.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

436 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES DEAL WITH NAILING DOWN CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER
CONCERNS.

KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER
CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND S AT 10G15KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-DZ POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G25KT.
TUE...MVFR WITH RA...IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 15G25KT.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...CLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

932 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE FA RIGHT NOW...BUT UPSTREAM IT
LOOKS MUCH THINNER. THEREFORE SHOULD BE MORE SUN BY AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 50 NORTH AND AROUND 60 SOUTH STILL LOOK
FINE. NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING THIS EARLY MORNING WITH ABOUT
40 KTS AT 925 MB. A WARM LAYER AT 925 MB IS OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN ERN ND AND THIS IS SHOWING UP WITH
TEMPS WITH LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WALHALLA
TO WESTERN GRAND FORKS COUNTY. 925 MB WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 12Z AND
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WINDS AT THE SFC AND AT 925MB ARE PRETTY
LIGHT. FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION WITH A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. BUT
LACK OF A GOOD WIND COMBINED WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS LENDS ONE TO BE
A BIT CONCERNED ON HOW WARM TEMPS WILL BE. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
DOES WELL IN MOST OF THESE CIRCUMSTANCES IN THE PAST AND IT SHOWS
AN AREA OF 60-63 IN THE JAMESTOWN/VALLEY CITY AREA TO NEAR
FARGO...AND A BIT COOLER AREA FROM LANGDON ND INTO NW MN. LEANED
TOWARD A CONSHORT AND HRRR TEMP FCST FOR TODAY. SOME SOME THINNING
OF HIGH CLOUDS IN SW ND AND BEST SUN TODAY WILL BE SE ND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR TUE. TEMPS WERE
DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR WED AND DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR THU AND FRI.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD. EXPECT A VEIL OF BKN CIRRUS TODAY
BECOME MORE SCATTERED TONIGHT. WINDS SOUTHWEST TODAY 10 TO 15 KTS
THEN SOUTH NR 5 KTS TONIGHT.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

706 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

GETTING A WARM SURGE AT 925 MB AT 12Z AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
STILL. 925 MB TEMPS COOL A TAD IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FCST AREA
THIS AFTN BUT REMAIN WARM IN SE ND WHERE MAX TEMPS NR 60 ARE
POSSIBLE. USED CONSHORT FOR TEMP UPDATE TODAY WHICH KEEPS FAR
NORTH NR 50 AND SOUTH NR 60. WINDS TODAY NOT STRONG BUT WIND
DIRECTION FAVORABLE. HIGH CLOUDS COULD DAMPER SUN QUITE A BIT ESP
IN THE NORTH. THOSE THINGS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THRU THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR TUE. TEMPS WERE
DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR WED AND DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR THU AND FRI.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD. EXPECT A VEIL OF BKN CIRRUS TODAY
BECOME MORE SCATTERED TONIGHT. WINDS SOUTHWEST TODAY 10 TO 15 KTS
THEN SOUTH NR 5 KTS TONIGHT.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

938 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE IS FOR THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NUECES AND KLEBERG COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TIDES AT BOB HALL PIER RUNNING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 1 FOOT MSL WITH
A HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON PREDICTED AT 1.2 FEET MSL...MAKING
LIKELY TIDE LEVEL AROUND 1.2 FEET MSL (HENCE THE ADVISORY). A FEW
MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES (DEW POINTS) AND WINDS. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES LOOK OK FOR NOW SO DID NOT CHANGE. FINALLY...REMOVED
THE 20 POPS AND ONLY MENTIONED SPRINKLES. HRRR RUNS AND 00Z 4 KM
NSSL AND 06Z TTU MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING THIS
AFTERNOON. PRODUCTS ARE OUT...WILL MAKE OTHER CHANGES THIS
AFTERNOON AS-NEEDED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MARINE PACKAGE LOOKED FINE FROM HERE SO CWFCRP SENT WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES (EXCEPT FOR THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES AND NOT
RAIN).

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE 12Z TAFS. CEILINGS
RANGE FROM VFR AT ALI/CRP/VCT TO MVFR AT LRD. ANTICIPATE CIGS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE A
LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY.
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK PRECIP OUT OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. WILL KEEP POPS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE THOUGH AND IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE TODAY. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...
HIGHS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE...
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PREFERRED
LOCATIONS WILL BE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS A
LITTLE BETTER. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LONG PERIOD
SWELLS AND A MODERATE TO NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW PERSISTS. EVEN
WITH THE NE/E FLOW IN PLACE...TIDAL LEVELS SHOULD STAY BELOW 2
FEET MSL WHICH WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVG ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL INCREASE SLY WINDS ACROSS S TX
AND USHER DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA AS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE
AND THE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RATHER LIMITED. SHRA/TSRA CHCS
INCREASE ON MON IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED UPPER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE AREA AHD OF THE MAIN LOW. MODELS ALSO PROG UPPER JET
DYNAMICS TO INCREASE ON MON...ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE E CWA AND OVER THE WATERS AND PWATS INCREASING TO 1.8-1.9
INCHES. THE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION ON MON WILL BE ACROSS THE NE CWA
WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST. MODELS PROG THE CAP TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON/MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BECOME MORE SW AND STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 35KTS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGD TO MOVE
INTO S TX TUE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO
RUN/MODEL TO MODEL...BUT ALL SHOW SOMETIME TUE. WENT WITH THE
SUPERBLEND`S TIMING WHICH PUTS THE BDRY ENTERING THE NW CWA AROUND
12Z TUE AND REACHING THE COAST AROUND 18Z THEN BEYOND THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY 00Z. THIS TIMING PROVIDES A BRIEF WINDOW FOR POSSIBLY
STRONG TO ISOL SVR AHD OF THE BDRY...MAINLY FOR THE NE CWA WITH BEST
CHCS FARTHER N-NE OF THE CWA. CHCS DECREASE FARTHER S AND W DUE TO
STRONGER CAPPING/LESS MOISTURE. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
NE CWA IN A 15 PERCENT PROB FOR SVR FOR TUE.

THE ECMWF AND GFS QUICKLY BRING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO S TX THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...HOWEVER THE SUPERBLEND KEEPS LOW POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME E AND OVER THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/WED. AM LEANING TOWARD THE
DRIER SOLNS FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...BUT LEFT THE LOW POPS FOR NOW FOR
POSSIBILITY OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER THAN EXPECTED.

ABV NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MON THEN COOLER BY TUE WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM BY WED. A WARMING TREND
THEN COMMENCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A GENERALLY EAST FLOW
DVLPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MON AHD OF THE FRONT AND
AGAIN TUE/TUE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 74 67 78 71 84 / 10 20 20 20 20
VICTORIA 69 56 74 68 80 / 10 20 20 20 50
LAREDO 70 62 78 69 87 / 10 30 30 20 10
ALICE 75 61 78 69 86 / 10 20 20 20 20
ROCKPORT 72 64 76 72 80 / 10 20 20 20 30
COTULLA 67 57 74 68 83 / 10 30 30 20 20
KINGSVILLE 76 65 79 71 85 / 10 20 20 20 20
NAVY CORPUS 74 69 77 74 82 / 10 20 20 20 20

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

GW/86...SHORT TERM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

602 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE 12Z TAFS. CEILINGS
RANGE FROM VFR AT ALI/CRP/VCT TO MVFR AT LRD. ANTICIPATE CIGS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE A
LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MON AHD OF THE FRONT AND
AGAIN TUE/TUE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 74 67 78 71 84 / 20 20 20 20 20
VICTORIA 69 56 74 68 80 / 20 20 20 20 50
LAREDO 70 62 78 69 87 / 20 30 30 20 10
ALICE 75 61 78 69 86 / 20 20 20 20 20
ROCKPORT 72 64 76 72 80 / 20 20 20 20 30
COTULLA 67 57 74 68 83 / 20 30 30 20 20
KINGSVILLE 76 65 79 71 85 / 20 20 20 20 20
NAVY CORPUS 74 69 77 74 82 / 20 20 20 20 20

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

TB/78...AVIATION

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

517 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES. CONTINUE
TO SEE RADAR RETURNS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY AND NOT MUCH OF THIS
IS REACHING THE GROUND. SHOULD SEE SLOW MOISTENING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING THE
SURFACE. WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR DRT FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND AT KAUS
AFTER 20Z. MOST HIGH-RES MODELS KEEPS THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE
SAN ANTONIO SITES. AS THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WE SHOULD
SEE MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP 300MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW
A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE TWO SHORT-WAVES
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ELEVATED SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY WITH
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING THIS CONCLUSION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. AN INCREASED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR THE MOST PART.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL PULSES OF ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION AND INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER SYSTEM.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
PUSH FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT OUR WAY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN A FORM
OF SQUALL LINE. THE LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY
AND THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 4 AM AND 6 AM. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY MID
MORNING ON TUESDAY. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. CANT RULE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS WITH STORM RAINFALL
TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS.

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

412 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY.
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK PRECIP OUT OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. WILL KEEP POPS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE THOUGH AND IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE TODAY. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...
HIGHS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE...
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PREFERRED
LOCATIONS WILL BE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS A
LITTLE BETTER. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVG ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL INCREASE SLY WINDS ACROSS S TX
AND USHER DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA AS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE
AND THE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RATHER LIMITED. SHRA/TSRA CHCS
INCREASE ON MON IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED UPPER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE AREA AHD OF THE MAIN LOW. MODELS ALSO PROG UPPER JET
DYNAMICS TO INCREASE ON MON...ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE E CWA AND OVER THE WATERS AND PWATS INCREASING TO 1.8-1.9
INCHES. THE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION ON MON WILL BE ACROSS THE NE CWA
WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST. MODELS PROG THE CAP TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON/MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BECOME MORE SW AND STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 35KTS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGD TO MOVE
INTO S TX TUE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO
RUN/MODEL TO MODEL...BUT ALL SHOW SOMETIME TUE. WENT WITH THE
SUPERBLEND`S TIMING WHICH PUTS THE BDRY ENTERING THE NW CWA AROUND
12Z TUE AND REACHING THE COAST AROUND 18Z THEN BEYOND THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY 00Z. THIS TIMING PROVIDES A BRIEF WINDOW FOR POSSIBLY
STRONG TO ISOL SVR AHD OF THE BDRY...MAINLY FOR THE NE CWA WITH BEST
CHCS FARTHER N-NE OF THE CWA. CHCS DECREASE FARTHER S AND W DUE TO
STRONGER CAPPING/LESS MOISTURE. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
NE CWA IN A 15 PERCENT PROB FOR SVR FOR TUE.

LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MON AHD OF THE FRONT AND
AGAIN TUE/TUE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

TB/78...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

330 PM MST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
OCCUR MONDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N/125W WILL FILL THIS EVENING THEN MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SE ARIZONA SUNDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-
TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. ACCORDING TO SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS...SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE TUCSON METRO AREA DURING THE 15/09Z TO 15/11Z PERIOD.

THE 14/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS SE ARIZONA SUN. BASED ON THESE
SOLUTIONS...POPS WERE INCREASED SUN ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND
SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. 14/12Z GFS DEPICTED A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO EXIST SUN. THUS...EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SUN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW EXISTS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST
AND SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.

THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION SUN NIGHT AND MON TURNS TOWARD A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SWRN CONUS.
THERE WERE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC
REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW BY MIDDAY MON. FOR
INSTANCE...THE GFS/CMC WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE UPPER LOW TO
BE CENTERED OVER NWRN NEW MEXICO MIDDAY MON. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF WAS
FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND DEPICTED THE UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER NRN ARIZONA MIDDAY MON.

THERE WERE ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA
POPS FOR SUN NIGHT-MON. THUS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND
COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON. SNOW LEVELS EARLY SUN EVENING WILL
STILL BE ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOPS...THEN SNOW LEVELS LATE MON AFTERNOON
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 4000 FEET ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 5000 FEET NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT
SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM MON...AND WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE BRIEFLY ACHIEVED PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MON NIGHT WILL
BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AREA-
WIDE TUE-SAT AS NLY FLOW ALOFT TUE TRANSITIONS TO WLY FLOW ALOFT
NEXT SAT.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.25 - 0.75 INCH IN THE VALLEYS FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD...BUT ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT 0.50 - 0.75 INCH OF LIQUID AMOUNTS.
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 3-7
INCHES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET...AND FROM 1-4
INCHES ACROSS THE CATALINA/RINCON/GALIURO/PINALENO MOUNTAINS IN
PIMA/GRAHAM COUNTIES ABOVE 7000 FEET. ONLY TRACE ACCUMS TO PERHAPS
AN INCH OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR ON THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES.

HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE ABOUT 5-15 DEGS COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED
THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING UPON LOCATION...THEN ANOTHER 10-15 DEGS OF
COOLING WILL OCCUR MON. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
OCCUR MON NIGHT EXCEPT ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. FREEZE WARNINGS AND/OR HARD FREEZE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MON NIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR
TUE-FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY NEXT FRI.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 16/00Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS 9-12K FT MSL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS ABOVE. CLOUDS
SPREADING NORTH AND LOWERING TO SCT-BKN 5-7K FT...BKN-OVC 9-12K FT
AFT 15/06Z AND CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED -SHRA WILL DEVELOP SOUTH TO WEST OF KTUS AFTER 15/05Z...
THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY.
SURFACE WIND ELY/SELY AT 5-15 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
THEN BECOMING S-SW 9-17 KTS AFTER 15/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
SUNDAY AREA WIDE AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A SECOND
STRONGER STORM WILL THEN BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. IT WILL DRY OUT
TUESDAY ONWARD WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES LINGERING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

925 AM MST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY. CONTINUED COLD TUESDAY BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND PREVAILS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED CLEAR SKIES TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT
THIS TIME. A FEW TO SCATTERED CIRRIFORM CLOUDS WERE MOVING NEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. A VERY DRY SURFACE
REGIME WAS ONGOING WITH DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER TEENS-MID 20S. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE GENERALLY 3-8
DEGS F WARMER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 14/12Z KTWC DEPICTED A VERY DRY
PROFILE...WITH TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.21 INCH. 14/12Z UPPER
AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A WEAK (571 DM) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
NW ARIZONA...AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED FURTHER SW NEAR
29N/127W. THESE FEATURES WERE DISTINCTLY APPARENT VIA WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SWLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS SE ARIZONA.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE WEAK UPPER LOWS ARE
PROGGED TO FILL BY THIS EVENING. 14/12Z NAM/GFS REMAINED CONSISTENT
VERSUS THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING INCREASED
PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUN. THE NAM CONTINUED
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE 12Z GFS...AND THE 14/00Z ECMWF/
CMC SOLUTIONS...WITH THE DEPICTION OF HIGHER TO CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
QPF/S TONIGHT. HAVE EVEN NOTED THAT THE NAM DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S TO
OCCUR TODAY GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN
ERN COCHISE COUNTY. SEVERAL RUC SOLUTIONS HAVE MAINTAINED PRECIP-
FREE CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM POTENTIAL
PRECIP SCENARIO FOR TODAY.

AT ANY RATE...MOSTLY CIRRIFORM CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY...THEN
CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTENING OCCURS ESPECIALLY ABOVE
700 MB. THE 14/15Z RUC SUGGESTS NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THIS
FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 15/05Z. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...OR
SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SONORA MEXICO. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO FRI...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 15/18Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT MSL TODAY...
THEN CLOUD DECKS LOWERING TO AROUND 8K-12K FT MSL TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED -SHRA WILL DEVELOP SOUTH
TO WEST OF KTUS AFTER ABOUT 15/02Z...THEN -SHRA SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WIND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING... THEN
SURFACE WIND ELY/SELY AT 5-15 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EXISTS ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR SOME
LOCALES SUNDAY...THEN WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER GILA
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD TUESDAY. EXPECT LESS WIND TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION /310 AM MST/...
TONIGHT...INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENING UP FROM TOP DOWN. PW VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 0.50" TO
0.75" RANGE WITH VALUES UP TO AN INCH JUST S OF THE INTNL BORDER.
NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO HAVE THE HIGHER PW VALUES OF THE MODELS.
AS THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW APPROACHES BAJA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...DYNAMICS OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

SUNDAY...THE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES. WIDE RANGE
OF QPF VALUES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE NAM ON THE HIGHER END.
WENT WITH A MODEL COMPROMISE WITH VALUES FROM TUCSON S AND E RANGING
FROM 0.20" TO 0.55" WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN COCHISE COUNTY. VERY
LIGHT QPF VALUES OUT IN WRN PIMA COUNTY. SNOW LEVEL REMAINING ABOVE
THE MOUNTAIN TOPS. COOLER WITH HIGHS 5-12 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...DYNAMICS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING
THE PACIFIC NW. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS IN THE 120-160 METER RANGE WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CRASHING DOWN INTO
THE 3500 TO 5000 FOOT LEVEL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS FORECAST TO SEE 3-5" OF NEW SNOW WITH LESS AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE OTHER SKY ISLANDS. MUCH COLDER MONDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15
DEGREES COLDER THAN SUNDAY. IT WILL FEEL RATHER RAW WHEN YOU COMBINE
THE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE EQUATION.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...TROF AXIS MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. TURNING MUCH COLDER
WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS IN WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AND PARTS OF S-CENTRAL
PINAL COUNTY. HARD FREEZE TO FREEZE WARNINGS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

COOL AND DRY NLY FLOW OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REBOUND WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONGER WARMUP COMMENCES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MODERATING.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

428 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AND MOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE DRIVING THE SFC LOW WILL WEAKEN SOME BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND
BE WEST OF THE HUDSON BAY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY, MAINLY WITH TIMING. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER
WITH THE FRONT, PUTTING IT THROUGH TLH BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ECMWF TRAILS BY ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE BOTH BRING THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BEFORE STALLING IT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT, SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN MCO AND THE LAKE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA,
PUTTING SOUTH FLORIDA BACK UNDER AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CURRENTLY FORECASTING THE WIND TO BE SOMEWHAT
WEAKER THAN THIS WEEKEND.

FOR TONIGHT, THE HRRR IS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN SOME, DRIVING THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE SHOWERS TO AN END THIS EVENING. THE WIND WILL BE
BREEZY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE...BUT OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS /ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/ WILL PERSIST
FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOR NOW HANDLED
WITH VCSH /NEAR TERM TEMPO GROUPS/. BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. NE WIND 10-15 KT WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS ANTICIPATED.

.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ALL BUT STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST TOMORROW. THE WIND WILL BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS, WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KTS. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED GUSTS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO
BUILD, ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM, WHERE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FT TOMORROW. THE STRONG WIND WILL ALSO CAUSE
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 82 76 83 / 40 40 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 81 75 83 / 50 50 50 60
MIAMI 72 82 75 84 / 60 60 50 60
NAPLES 71 86 70 88 / 20 20 20 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.

HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...23/SK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1132 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES DEAL WITH NAILING DOWN CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...PRIMARILY FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WI /KSTC-KRNH-KEAU/...WHERE WINDS MAY DIP TO AROUND 3 KTS. HOWEVER
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.

KMSP...
ONLY SCT CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS AOB 10KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-DZRA POSSIBLE. WIND SSE AT 15G25KT.
TUE...MVFR WITH RA...IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS ESE AT 10-20KT.
WED...MVFR WITH -RA...IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10-20KT.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...LS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1216 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

MOST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
MPH. DESPITE SEEING NW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN FA...TEMPS ARE
ALREADY APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS IN MANY AREAS...EVEN EAST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO AHEAD AND BOOST HIGHS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. WARMEST TEMPS AT NOON ARE KJMS AT 57F
AND SISSETON SD AT 60F.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR TUE. TEMPS WERE
DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR WED AND DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR THU AND FRI.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS LIMITED TO
CIRRUS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

217 PM PST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT AND BECOME
RE-ORIENTED NORTH-TO-SOUTH THIS EVENING AND FINALLY MOVE ASHORE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A
SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND WITH THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER AND MINOR FLOODING. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE CASCADE PASSES...THE HIGHER CASCADE
FOOTHILLS...AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COAST RANGE. A
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN COMPRISED OF A NEARLY-STALLED
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN WA THROUGH EXTREME NW OREGON
THEN TO A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 40N 135W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CENTERED ALONG 135W AS OF 21Z. CLASSIC BAROCLINC LEAF SIGNATURE
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NOTED JUST OUTSIDE 130W WITH INFLECTION
POINT CLOSE TO 43N 132W. RAINFALL RATES ACROSS SW WA AND EXTREME NW
OREGON HAVE EASED AND ARE GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH PER HOUR. SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED INSTEAD OF
WEST-TO-EAST. 12Z MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. IT APPEARS THE BAROCLINIC BAND MOISTURE CONTENT HAS
DIMINSHED A BIT SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE 1849Z BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER GRAPHIC INDICATES VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES ALONG THE
S WA AND FAR N OREGON COAST...COMPARED TO 1.3 INCHES OR SO EARLIER
THIS MORNING. SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR KSLE SHOWED A MAXIMUM TPW
FOR THIS DATE OF 1.19 INCHES.

THE BAROCLINIC BAND AND ASSOCIATED HEAVIER RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A STEEP AND
NARROW RAINFALL GRADIENT FROM SW WASHINGTON TO JUST ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. EARLIER THIS MORNING THERE WERE A FEW REPORTS OF
LOCALIZED MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG HIGHWAY 101 IN TILLAMOOK
COUNTY. THE HRRR HAS DONE REASONABLY WELL WITH THE FRONTAL EVOLUTION.
LATEST RUN SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP RETURNING TO
THE S WA COAST AROUND 01Z SUN...THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING TO THE
OREGON COASTLINE BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. LATER TIMING WILL BE ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST AS THE FRONTAL BAND BECOMES MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH.
THE HRRR SHIFTS THE COLD FRONT TO THE CASCADES BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z
SUN. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT A 2 TO 4 HR PERIOD OF INCREASED PRECIP
INTENSITY. LATEST RIVER FORECASTS KEEP THE WILSON RIVER NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE BANKFULL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER NORTH OREGON COASTAL
RIVERS EXPECTED TO SEE A MINOR SECONDARY RISE LATE TONIGHT...THEN GO
ON A STEADY DECLINE LATE TONIGHT AND SUN.

COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS FROM AROUND 7000
FEET THIS MORNING DOWN TO PASS LEVELS BY 12Z SUN...AND THEN TO 2500
FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KAST PROFILER INDICATED SNOW
LEVELS ABOUT 6800 FT AT 20Z. LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS FALL TO THE
CASCADE PASSES SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SUN. THUS...WILL GO WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES 14Z SUN THROUGH 08Z MON. THE HIGHER
CASCADE FOOTHILLS...ABOVE ABOUT 2000 FT...STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF
GETTING A LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT
MILD AIR MASS AND RESULTANT GROUND TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS. THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT
FREQUENT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ANY SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
CASCADE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA MON MORNING.
WARM-ADVECTIVE OVER-RUNNING PATTERN SETS UP LATE SUN NIGHT THROIUGH
MON MORNING. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A LULL IN PRECIP LATE SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. TYPICALLY...MODELS TEND TO RAISE SNOW
LEVELS TOO FAST IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. HAVE KEPT THEM LOWER
THAN MODEL OUTPUT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT 18Z MON THROUGH 06Z TUE
WILL PRODUCE INCREASING QPF FOR THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND SW WA
WILLAPA HILLS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN LIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE A LITTLE
MORE NORTH TUE MORNING. HOWEVER...THINK SNOW LEVELS FOR THE S WA AND
FAR N OREGON CASCADES WILL REMAIN BELOW 4000 FEET TUE MORNING FOR THE
POSSIBLITY OF SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE THURSDAY ONWARD DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BE DRY SO
DECREASED POPS...BUT STILL KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
BEYOND FRIDAY MODELS DIVERGE EVEN FURTHER ON THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL BAND STRETCHING OVER FAR NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY BECOME ALIGNED IN A N-S ORIENTATION THIS
EVENING AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE COAST
AND MVFR INLAND TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME STRONG SOUTH WINDS NEAR 30-35
KTS ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND AROUND 20-25 KTS INLAND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z-10Z.
AFTER 08Z...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS HAS BEEN PROVIDING A SHARP DELINEATION
OF WINDS WITH SOUTHERLY GALES SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. AS THE
FRONT TAKES ON A N-S ORIENTATION TONIGHT...THE NOSE OF SOUTHERLY
GALES WILL REACH ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS THE COLUMBIA RIVER. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KTS. EXPECT WINDS TO DROP BELOW GALES AFTER
10PM THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND AFTER 9AM SUNDAY IN
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

SEAS RUNNING 15 TO 17 FEET TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY. TW

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
WILLAPA HILLS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 8 PM
PST SUNDAY.

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

1202 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.AVIATION...FIRST...HAVE NO MENTION OF PCPN IN THE TERMINALS
(MAINLY FOR KALI AND KLRD ANYWAY)...AS THINK ANY LIGHT RAIN (AND
IT SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE) WILL BE TOO WEAK
TO MAKE ANY IMPACT AT THIS TIME (MORE LIKE SPRINKLES)...AND
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW. IF IT WOULD HAPPEN IT WOULD BE OVERNIGHT
AND MAINLY AFTER 15/09Z SO PREFER TO LEAVE IT OUT BECAUSE OF THAT.
OTHERWISE...AM EXPECTING VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THEN
CIGS BECOME MVFR ALL BUT KVCT BY 15/10Z (KLRD FIRST)...THEN KVCT
ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY. BELIEVE WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ENOUGH EAST
FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL SEE SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS AT KLRD BETWEEN 10Z
AND 16Z (OR SOMEWHERE AROUND THOSE TIMES). WINDS MAINLY EAST TODAY
THEN A BIT NORTHEAST TONIGHT (NOT AS BREEZY IN FACT GENERALLY
LIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST...KCRP)...THEN EAST KALI AND KVCT (SE AT
KCRP) WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING BACK INLAND.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE IS FOR THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NUECES AND KLEBERG COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TIDES AT BOB HALL PIER RUNNING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 1 FOOT MSL WITH
A HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON PREDICTED AT 1.2 FEET MSL...MAKING
LIKELY TIDE LEVEL AROUND 1.2 FEET MSL (HENCE THE ADVISORY). A FEW
MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES (DEW POINTS) AND WINDS. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES LOOK OK FOR NOW SO DID NOT CHANGE. FINALLY...REMOVED
THE 20 POPS AND ONLY MENTIONED SPRINKLES. HRRR RUNS AND 00Z 4 KM
NSSL AND 06Z TTU MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING THIS
AFTERNOON. PRODUCTS ARE OUT...WILL MAKE OTHER CHANGES THIS
AFTERNOON AS-NEEDED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MARINE PACKAGE LOOKED FINE FROM HERE SO CWFCRP SENT WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES (EXCEPT FOR THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES AND NOT
RAIN).

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MON AHD OF THE FRONT AND
AGAIN TUE/TUE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

GW/86...AVIATION

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1144 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.AVIATION...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
AS THIS RAIN FALLS THROUGH THE LAYER. WILL SEE DEWPOINTS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING CEILINGS TO COME
DOWN. CIG HEIGHTS ARE IN THE 5-7KFT RANGE NOW...BUT EXPECT THEM TO
FALL OVERNIGHT INTO MVFR BEFORE DAWN AND REMAIN THAT WAY ALL DAY
SUNDAY. RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT SO HANDLING
WITH VICINITY SH BUT ALSO PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON AT
DRT/SAT/SSF FOR SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH -SHRA. VISBY AND
DECKS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED HOWEVER.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES. CONTINUE
TO SEE RADAR RETURNS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY AND NOT MUCH OF THIS
IS REACHING THE GROUND. SHOULD SEE SLOW MOISTENING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING THE
SURFACE. WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR DRT FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND AT KAUS
AFTER 20Z. MOST HIGH-RES MODELS KEEPS THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE
SAN ANTONIO SITES. AS THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WE SHOULD
SEE MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 53 69 63 76 / 40 40 30 40 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 52 70 63 77 / 40 40 30 40 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 54 72 65 79 / 30 40 30 40 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 52 66 62 74 / 50 50 30 50 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 56 66 63 77 / 30 30 40 50 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 51 67 62 75 / 50 50 30 50 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 64 55 70 65 78 / 20 40 30 50 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 53 70 64 77 / 40 40 30 40 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 66 54 72 65 78 / 20 30 20 30 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 65 55 71 66 78 / 30 40 30 40 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 56 73 66 80 / 20 40 30 30 40

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33