Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/13/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
618 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS DOWN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION
SATURDAY AND REMAINS INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING NW ZONES.
LATEST HRRR (21Z) SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO TRACK ALONG WITH
THE FRONT PASSING PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA 00-04Z. ANY SHOWERS
WOULD BE BRIEF AND PASS QUICKLY.
WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM THE WSW.
TEMPS DROP OFF IN TO THE 40S. USED THE WARMER NAM MOS DUE TO THE
LARGE AMOUNT OF MIXING EXPECTED. DRY AND WINDY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN STORY IS THE W WINDS THAT GUSTS INTO THE 30S MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY EVENING WITH FREEZING LEVELS DOWN
TO 1500` MSL. THUS...A FEW FLAKES DO NOT SEEM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE INTERIOR HILLS FROM SOME STRATOCU, BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS IN THE MID 50S ON FRIDAY FALL INTO THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT
(EXCEPT A FEW PARTS OF NYC).
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. THE GFS AND NAM WERE
BEST WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS AND TIMING. FOR SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE MIXING WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT
FROM 850 MB. THE COOLER AIR DOES NOT LINGER AS WARM ADVECTION SETS
UP FOR SUNDAY...AND THE AIRMASS ALSO MODIFIES.
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
UNCERTAINTIES BEGIN TO BE MANIFEST IN THE GUIDANCE WITH HOW QUICKLY
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE USED THE WPC
GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FRONT PASSAGE AND IMPROVE TO VFR
THEREAFTER. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SPEEDS BECOME 12-17 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. WEST WINDS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35
KT. STRONGEST GUSTS LIKELY OCCUR AT COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND FRONT PASSAGE
MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 30 KT IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND FRONT PASSAGE
MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 30 KT IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND FRONT PASSAGE
MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 30 KT IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND FRONT PASSAGE
MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND FRONT PASSAGE
MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND FRONT PASSAGE
MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 30 KT IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR. W WINDS G25-35KT.
.SAT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT...DIMINISHING LATE EVENING.
.SUN-TUE...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A WESTERLY GALE.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTH TO WSW WITH THE FROPA. GUSTS OF 30-35
KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN STRONG FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALONG WITH CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
MIXING OF STRONGER WIND ALOFT TO MIX TO THE WATER. GALE FORCE GUSTS
WILL REMAIN ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS INTO SATURDAY. COLD ADVECTION
AND WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAKENING DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
GUSTS MAY FALL BELOW GALE FORCE ON THE LONG ISLAND SOUND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL EXTEND THE GALE WARNING ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ON ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE OCEAN SATURDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
GUSTS COULD REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF MORICHES INLET.
LATER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
FINALLY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL FALL BELOW 5 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DO NOT EXPECT BLOW OUT TIDES TOMORROW OR SATURDAY...BUT TIDES
WILL BE ABOUT A FOOT LOWER THAN ASTRONOMICAL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE/PW
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MET/TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1017 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Visibilities across the CWA have been improving this morning with
only some patchy fog left across the area. Low clouds remain in
place though, but we are starting to see some thinning of the
clouds based on visible satellite. This trend should continue with
improvement by early afternoon. The clouds will hold across the
area longer than originally expected so have slowed the hourly
temperature trend. If we do break out of the clouds this afternoon
as forecast, then the high temperatures still seem reasonable and
thus have made no adjustments there.
&&
.Prev Discussion [632 AM EST]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
While the short term period will be dry, significant changes to
the weather pattern will start on Thursday night into Friday as a
dry cold front moves across the area. Initially, Thursday will be
a warm dry day before the cold front arrives Thursday night.
Thereafter, much cooler and drier air will spread in across the
region. High temperatures on Friday will struggle to get into the
lower 70s across much of the region under moderate cold advection.
That being said, the real cold air won`t arrive until Saturday.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
In the wake of a dry cold front, the region will be well to the
west of a large area of high pressure across the Central Plains.
This will set up a rather tight gradient on Friday night that will
result in a cool, but breezy night with lows generally uniform
across the inland areas in the mid 40s. As the high moves further
east into the Tennessee River Valley on Saturday, the colder and
drier airmass will become more established, with highs only in the
low to mid 60s expected during the daytime.
The big question with this event will be how cold temperatures
will get on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Interestingly,
model guidance this cycle has actually warmed a couple of degrees
at our MOS sites for Sunday morning. As has been the case for the
last few days, the model blend guidance we utilize has been
several degrees warmer than the coldest individual operational
models. Seeing the GFS and Euro MOS start to move back toward the
warmer side, increases confidence in a warmer solution for
Saturday night. As a result, will show temperatures in the low to
mid 40s across the region. This is due to the high pressure center
remaining across Eastern Tennessee and the pressure gradient
across the NE Gulf never truly supporting a stretch of calm winds
overnight.
High pressure will continue to move east into the Western Atlantic
through Monday, resulting in a modification of the local airmass,
leading to a slow warming trend. After Monday, the forecast
becomes considerably more uncertain. The Euro and GFS are having
difficulty resolving the progress of the next trough coming across
the Western CONUS. The trend from yesterday and again this morning
is for a slower progression, thus have kept PoPs Tue-Wed on the
lower side of guidance. Temperatures by Monday afternoon should be
back above normal with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the lower
50s.
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Data from our 12z KTAE raob showed a very
shallow moisture layer just above ground level. Despite this
limited vertical extent, there were extensive IFR (or lower) cigs
across our region, as well as areas of MVFR-IFR fog. Once there
are a few breaks in the OVC (mid- late morning), conditions will
improve. (The latest HRRR maintains low cigs for much of the day,
but this seems unrealistic). The model consensus has areas of fog
developing toward dawn Thursday, but not much in terms of low
cigs. Surface winds will be light and variable today.
.Marine...
Light winds will prevail through most of the week. As we head into
the weekend, northeast winds will increase to advisory levels
Friday night in the wake of a cold front passage.
.Fire Weather...
The main concern will be the unusually low dispersion values today,
due to very light winds and relatively low mixing heights. A much
cooler and drier airmass will reach the forecast area this weekend,
but it`s too early to tell if there is a Red Flag threat.
.Hydrology...
The Choctawhatchee River at Geneva has crested and the next
observational site at Pittman in N Florida has nearly crested as
well. Expect Caryville to continue rising over the next 24 hours
before cresting just above 13 feet in the minor flood category.
Moderate flooding will continue for sometime further downstream at
Bruce. Sufficient water appears to be in the system to support an
eventual crest on Saturday afternoon above 15.5 feet.
Over in the Chipola River, runoff from Sunday is now resulting in
sharper rises at Marianna. It looks as though the river will crest
there late Thursday just below flood stage, though it will be
close. With these increased flows passing Marianna, it`s possible
that by Saturday, Altha could approach flood stage around 22 feet.
Releases from Woodruff Dam were increased on Tuesday afternoon to
around 45kcfs, which is more than sufficient to result in
downstream flooding at Blountstown, which should reach at least 16
feet late tonight. The combination of these higher flows
progressing past Blountstown could cause some minor flooding
issues further downstream near Wewahitchka as the crest wave from
the Chipola River tries to discharge through the weekend.
Over on the Sopchoppy, the river finally looks to be cresting
after a more than 60 hour rise following heavy rainfall late last
weekend. The crest this morning around 26 feet is just 2 feet
below flood stage - an impressive feat considering the site
started around 8 feet Sunday morning. Fortunately, no significant
additional heavy rainfall is anticipated over the next several
days, which will allow plenty of time for the Sopchoppy to get at
least back below action stage.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 77 55 82 57 72 / 0 0 0 10 0
Panama City 74 62 80 55 71 / 0 0 0 10 0
Dothan 73 57 78 48 68 / 0 0 10 10 0
Albany 74 53 79 48 70 / 0 0 10 10 0
Valdosta 77 54 83 56 71 / 0 0 0 10 0
Cross City 81 54 85 59 77 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 75 61 80 61 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
632 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Data from our 12z KTAE raob showed a very
shallow moisture layer just above ground level. Despite this
limited vertical extent, there were extensive IFR (or lower) cigs
across our region, as well as areas of MVFR-IFR fog. Once there
are a few breaks in the OVC (mid- late morning), conditions will
improve. (The latest HRRR maintains low cigs for much of the day,
but this seems unrealistic). The model consensus has areas of fog
developing toward dawn Thursday, but not much in terms of low
cigs. Surface winds will be light and variable today.
&&
.Prev Discussion [344 AM EST]...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 10 pm EDT surface analysis showed a large area of high pressure
across much of the eastern CONUS. Skies were overcast with low
clouds across our region, even though the moisture layer was very
shallow (according to the 7 pm KTAE sounding). With gentle downward
motion and drying we expect the morning clouds and fog to gradually
dissipate by afternoon. Highs will be above average, in the mid 70s
north to around 80s south.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
While the short term period will be dry, significant changes to
the weather pattern will start on Thursday night into Friday as a
dry cold front moves across the area. Initially, Thursday will be
a warm dry day before the cold front arrives Thursday night.
Thereafter, much cooler and drier air will spread in across the
region. High temperatures on Friday will struggle to get into the
lower 70s across much of the region under moderate cold advection.
That being said, the real cold air won`t arrive until Saturday.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
In the wake of a dry cold front, the region will be well to the
west of a large area of high pressure across the Central Plains.
This will set up a rather tight gradient on Friday night that will
result in a cool, but breezy night with lows generally uniform
across the inland areas in the mid 40s. As the high moves further
east into the Tennessee River Valley on Saturday, the colder and
drier airmass will become more established, with highs only in the
low to mid 60s expected during the daytime.
The big question with this event will be how cold temperatures
will get on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Interestingly,
model guidance this cycle has actually warmed a couple of degrees
at our MOS sites for Sunday morning. As has been the case for the
last few days, the model blend guidance we utilize has been
several degrees warmer than the coldest individual operational
models. Seeing the GFS and Euro MOS start to move back toward the
warmer side, increases confidence in a warmer solution for
Saturday night. As a result, will show temperatures in the low to
mid 40s across the region. This is due to the high pressure center
remaining across Eastern Tennessee and the pressure gradient
across the NE Gulf never truly supporting a stretch of calm winds
overnight.
High pressure will continue to move east into the Western Atlantic
through Monday, resulting in a modification of the local airmass,
leading to a slow warming trend. After Monday, the forecast
becomes considerably more uncertain. The Euro and GFS are having
difficulty resolving the progress of the next trough coming across
the Western CONUS. The trend from yesterday and again this morning
is for a slower progression, thus have kept PoPs Tue-Wed on the
lower side of guidance. Temperatures by Monday afternoon should be
back above normal with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the lower
50s.
.Marine...
Light winds will prevail through most of the week. As we head into
the weekend, northeast winds will increase to advisory levels
Friday night in the wake of a cold front passage.
.Fire Weather...
The main concern will be the unusually low dispersion values today,
due to very light winds and relatively low mixing heights. A much
cooler and drier airmass will reach the forecast area this weekend,
but it`s too early to tell if there is a Red Flag threat.
.Hydrology...
The Choctawhatchee River at Geneva has crested and the next
observational site at Pittman in N Florida has nearly crested as
well. Expect Caryville to continue rising over the next 24 hours
before cresting just above 13 feet in the minor flood category.
Moderate flooding will continue for sometime further downstream at
Bruce. Sufficient water appears to be in the system to support an
eventual crest on Saturday afternoon above 15.5 feet.
Over in the Chipola River, runoff from Sunday is now resulting in
sharper rises at Marianna. It looks as though the river will crest
there late Thursday just below flood stage, though it will be
close. With these increased flows passing Marianna, it`s possible
that by Saturday, Altha could approach flood stage around 22 feet.
Releases from Woodruff Dam were increased on Tuesday afternoon to
around 45kcfs, which is more than sufficient to result in
downstream flooding at Blountstown, which should reach at least 16
feet late tonight. The combination of these higher flows
progressing past Blountstown could cause some minor flooding
issues further downstream near Wewahitchka as the crest wave from
the Chipola River tries to discharge through the weekend.
Over on the Sopchoppy, the river finally looks to be cresting
after a more than 60 hour rise following heavy rainfall late last
weekend. The crest this morning around 26 feet is just 2 feet
below flood stage - an impressive feat considering the site
started around 8 feet Sunday morning. Fortunately, no significant
additional heavy rainfall is anticipated over the next several
days, which will allow plenty of time for the Sopchoppy to get at
least back below action stage.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 77 55 82 57 72 / 0 0 0 10 0
Panama City 74 62 80 55 71 / 0 0 0 10 0
Dothan 73 57 78 48 68 / 0 0 10 10 0
Albany 74 53 79 48 70 / 0 0 10 10 0
Valdosta 77 54 83 56 71 / 0 0 0 10 0
Cross City 81 54 85 59 77 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 75 61 80 61 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
423 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING THEN A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN US WILL CONTROL THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
HAS ERODED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT HAS BEGUN MIXING TO THE SURFACE. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG
REMAINS ATTM AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO ERODE BY DAYBREAK. DRIER AIR
WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. FOG THREAT FOR TONIGHT IS LOW DUE TO DRY AIRMASS
BEING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF CHANGE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT WEAKENING AND DRYING AS IT CROSSES
THE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.
WINDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 10 AND
15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND WITH DRY FROPA EXPECTED THE WINDS
WILL HELP DRY THE SATURATED GROUND SLIGHTLY. FRONT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
RAPIDLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE HELP SOILS DRY AND ALLOW RIVER LEVELS
TO SUBSIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S THEN COOL INTO THE MID 60S FRIDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND
40 FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCENARIO BEGINS CHANGING MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO PLAINS STATES AND WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOISTURE
BEGINS RETURNING TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING...
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT. HRRR GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS SUGGEST AREAS OF DENSE
FOG MAY DEVELOP. UPS RADIATION FOG METHOD ALSO SUPPORTS FOG AT
TERMINALS. LAMP GUIDANCE IS MORE MARGINAL...WITH DRIER AIR
POSSIBLY ADVECTING INTO AREA TOWARD MORNING. AGS TERMINAL ALREADY
LIFR. EXPECT IFR TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AT ALL SITES. LIFR AT
AGS/OGB BASED ON LATEST HRRR. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR...CLEAR
BY 14Z...WITH CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE
FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND RESERVOIR RELEASES HAVE PROMPTED RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
FOR MANY OF THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1257 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS HAVE STAYED UP A BIT EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT THEY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT
OVER THE REGION AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
AND SOME LOCAL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT RAINS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE LAST TO ARRIVE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S BY DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE E CONUS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR
REGION. A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER...WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS.
ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NE TO THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE...WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
TO OUR EAST LATE WED NT/EARLY THU...WITH A DRY COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED
WITH THE FRONT...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT INDICATING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. W TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRI
NT...AND REMAIN OVER OUR REGION SAT/SUN. FREEZE/FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE SAT/SUN MORNINGS. GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING
THE NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR REGION LATE MON NT INTO
TUE. ACCEPTED WPCGUIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING...
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT. HRRR GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS SUGGEST AREAS OF DENSE
FOG MAY DEVELOP. UPS RADIATION FOG METHOD ALSO SUPPORTS FOG AT
TERMINALS. LAMP GUIDANCE IS MORE MARGINAL...WITH DRIER AIR
POSSIBLY ADVECTING INTO AREA TOWARD MORNING. AGS TERMINAL ALREADY
LIFR. EXPECT IFR TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AT ALL SITES. LIFR AT
AGS/OGB BASED ON LATEST HRRR. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR...CLEAR
BY 14Z...WITH CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE
FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND RESERVOIR RELEASES HAVE PROMPTED RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
FOR MANY OF THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
905 PM CST THU NOV 12 2015
.UPDATE...
720 PM CST
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW CENTERED NORTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY RAP ANALYSIS AND 00Z DVN RAOB...AS WELL
AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DROPPING 5-8 DEGREES IN DEW POINTS. THIS
MINI-SURGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A CORRIDOR OF
BRIEF 40-45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA...HAVING JUST PAST HERE IN
ROMEOVILLE. OUTSIDE OF THIS TEMPORARY SPIKE THOUGH...WIND SPEEDS
IN GENERAL WILL SLOWLY EASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH HANG IN THE SAME
PLACE TONIGHT...UNDULATING A LITTLE SOUTH/NORTH...BUT ALL IN ALL
FROM ROCKFORD THROUGH CHICAGO AND VALPARAISO NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BASICALLY JUST DROP ON ADVECTION...EASING INTO
THE MID 30S BY LATE TONIGHT.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA. MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...INCLUDING JET
INDUCED DIV...DPVA...AND WAA WILL MOVE OUT AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA BUT ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE COMBINATION OF
THE CLEARING SKIES AND CAA THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S...PERHAPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN SOME
SPOTS.
TOMORROW...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
ONE LAST PUSH OF ENERGY FROM THE VERY DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AS IT FINALLY DEPARTS THE REGION. OTHER THAN THE SHORTWAVE IN THE
MORNING...WE AGAIN LACK MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME REMNANT MOISTURE LEFT TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA WHICH WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY 00Z SAT THE MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION AND THE SKIES WILL CLEAR.
BSH
&&
.LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET THROUGH MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FROM NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION...TRANSLATES THROUGH THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP WITH RADIATIVE COOLING...LEADING
TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S SATURDAY MORNING. A DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BUILD IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD BECOME OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO EJECT A DIVERGENT FLOW REGIME AT THE 250
MB LEVEL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND RIDE THE DIVERGENT FLOW NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS...STARTING MONDAY
MORNING. THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE CHICAGO LAND AREA...LEADING TO MORE
LIKELY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE BROAD MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE REGION. PUT IN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BUILD DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS APPEAR TO
DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT AT THIS TIME AS THE
ECMWF MODEL IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH MOST UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES REACHING NEAR 200 J/KG.
HOWEVER... THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE BOTH MUCH LESS THAN
THAT...WITH VALUES NEAR 50 J/KG. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...KEPT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WITH
850 MB WIND VELOCITIES OF OVER 60 KTS...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS.
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WILL REDUCE TO JUST CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.
27
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
DESPITE A LARGE SYSTEM DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST...PATTERN STILL
SUPPORTIVE FOR CEILINGS AND STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING
VFR CEILINGS RETURNING BACK OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WITH AN
EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD STILL PRESENT UPSTREAM...CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OVERHEAD. IT DOES APPEAR THAT VFR CEILINGS WILL
INITIALLY BE OBSERVED IN THE NEAR TERM BUT WITH A TREND BACK
TOWARDS CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FT THIS EVENING. HAVE DELAYED THE
CLEARING ON FRIDAY BUT ITS POSSIBLE FOR THESE CLOUDS TO STAY
AROUND LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
WINDS/SPEEDS...AS THESE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY FINALLY DIMINISH INTO THE
EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* MEDIUM WITH CEILING TRENDS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...SHRA LIKELY/CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE STORM WARNING IN PLACE UNTIL 15Z FRI. WE
WILL LIKELY NOT MEET CRITERIA OVERNIGHT...BUT DO HAVE CONCERN THAT
WE WILL BRIEFLY PUSH BACK UP TO STORM WARNING LEVELS ON FRIDAY
MORNING AS A STOUT SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GALE WARNING CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET ACROSS THE LAKE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AROUND SUNRISE...THE RAIN WILL SWITCH TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND PUSH
SOUTH COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN/IF THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN...BUT
BY 12Z...ALL BUT THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING.
BSH
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...STORM WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3
PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
721 PM CST THU NOV 12 2015
.UPDATE...
720 PM CST
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW CENTERED NORTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY RAP ANALYSIS AND 00Z DVN RAOB...AS WELL
AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DROPPING 5-8 DEGREES IN DEW POINTS. THIS
MINI-SURGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A CORRIDOR OF
BRIEF 40-45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA...HAVING JUST PAST HERE IN
ROMEOVILLE. OUTSIDE OF THIS TEMPORARY SPIKE THOUGH...WIND SPEEDS
IN GENERAL WILL SLOWLY EASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH HANG IN THE SAME
PLACE TONIGHT...UNDULATING A LITTLE SOUTH/NORTH...BUT ALL IN ALL
FROM ROCKFORD THROUGH CHICAGO AND VALPARAISO NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BASICALLY JUST DROP ON ADVECTION...EASING INTO
THE MID 30S BY LATE TONIGHT.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA. MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...INCLUDING JET
INDUCED DIV...DPVA...AND WAA WILL MOVE OUT AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA BUT ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE COMBINATION OF
THE CLEARING SKIES AND CAA THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S...PERHAPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN SOME
SPOTS.
TOMORROW...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
ONE LAST PUSH OF ENERGY FROM THE VERY DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AS IT FINALLY DEPARTS THE REGION. OTHER THAN THE SHORTWAVE IN THE
MORNING...WE AGAIN LACK MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME REMNANT MOISTURE LEFT TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA WHICH WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY 00Z SAT THE MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION AND THE SKIES WILL CLEAR.
BSH
&&
.LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET THROUGH MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FROM NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION...TRANSLATES THROUGH THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP WITH RADIATIVE COOLING...LEADING
TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S SATURDAY MORNING. A DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BUILD IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD BECOME OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO EJECT A DIVERGENT FLOW REGIME AT THE 250
MB LEVEL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND RIDE THE DIVERGENT FLOW NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS...STARTING MONDAY
MORNING. THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE CHICAGO LAND AREA...LEADING TO MORE
LIKELY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE BROAD MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE REGION. PUT IN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BUILD DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS APPEAR TO
DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT AT THIS TIME AS THE
ECMWF MODEL IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH MOST UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES REACHING NEAR 200 J/KG.
HOWEVER... THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE BOTH MUCH LESS THAN
THAT...WITH VALUES NEAR 50 J/KG. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...KEPT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WITH
850 MB WIND VELOCITIES OF OVER 60 KTS...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS.
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WILL REDUCE TO JUST CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.
27
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
DESPITE A LARGE SYSTEM DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST...PATTERN STILL
SUPPORTIVE FOR CEILINGS AND STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING
VFR CEILINGS RETURNING BACK OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WITH AN
EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD STILL PRESENT UPSTREAM...CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OVERHEAD. IT DOES APPEAR THAT VFR CEILINGS WILL
INITIALLY BE OBSERVED IN THE NEAR TERM BUT WITH A TREND BACK
TOWARDS CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FT THIS EVENING. HAVE DELAYED THE
CLEARING ON FRIDAY BUT ITS POSSIBLE FOR THESE CLOUDS TO STAY
AROUND LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
WINDS/SPEEDS...AS THESE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY FINALLY DIMINISH INTO THE
EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* MEDIUM WITH CEILING TRENDS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...SHRA LIKELY/CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE STORM WARNING IN PLACE UNTIL 15Z FRI. WE
WILL LIKELY NOT MEET CRITERIA OVERNIGHT...BUT DO HAVE CONCERN THAT
WE WILL BRIEFLY PUSH BACK UP TO STORM WARNING LEVELS ON FRIDAY
MORNING AS A STOUT SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GALE WARNING CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET ACROSS THE LAKE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AROUND SUNRISE...THE RAIN WILL SWITCH TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND PUSH
SOUTH COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN/IF THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN...BUT
BY 12Z...ALL BUT THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING.
BSH
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...STORM WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3
PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
300 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Powerful November storm system is taking aim on central Illinois
this evening, with 20z/2pm surface chart showing a 991mb low over
southwest Iowa. Strong to severe thunderstorms are currently
developing in the vicinity of the low and arcing southward along a
trailing cold front into north-central Missouri. Further
south...another area of showers/storms is developing in association
with the warm conveyor belt across the Ozarks. As the low continues
to deepen and lift toward western Wisconsin, the storms currently
across northern Missouri will shift eastward into west-central
Illinois early this evening. Based on radar timing tools and
consistent forecasts from both the HRRR and 4km NAM, it appears
convection will arrive in the Illinois River Valley between 6pm and
8pm, along the I-55 corridor between 7pm and 9pm, and further east
to the I-57 corridor between 9pm and midnight. Damaging wind gusts
will be the primary severe weather threat across the western KILX
CWA early this evening, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out due to impressive amounts of low-level wind shear. As the
storms race E/NE, the severe wind threat will decrease east of the I-
55 corridor by mid to late evening as the storms tend to weaken with
time. Once the storms pass, very strong gradient winds will develop
as low pressure continues to deepen over Wisconsin. Westerly winds
will increase to between 20 and 30 mph overnight, with gusts
reaching the 40 to 50 mph range. As a result, a Wind Advisory will
remain in effect for all locations along/north of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
The intense storm system (987 mb) is expected to be over central
thru northeast Wisconsin by Thursday morning with a very tight
pressure gradient across a large portion of the region. Forecast
soundings suggest the potential for 25 to 35 mph sustained winds
with gusts around 50 mph at times into the afternoon hours before we
see a very slow diminishing trend towards evening. With the surface
low pulling away from the area rather quickly, the wrap-around
moisture is expected to lift northeast as well and shift into far
northern IL or southern Wisconsin by evening. A secondary upper
trof will swing southeast across the lower Great Lakes Thursday
night and Friday with gusty winds expected with that system as well,
although not as strong as what we will see tonight and Thursday.
The weather should quiet down for Friday night through the weekend
as high pressure settles across the area. We should start out on
the cool side early in the weekend but as the high shifts off to
our east on Sunday, southerly winds will bring in milder air for
Sunday afternoon. However, it doesn`t look like the nice weather
will hold very long over our area as an active southwest flow
pattern continues into next week with the first of two significant
systems that will affect the Midwest. Showers chances increase
somewhat late Sunday night into Monday, and especially Monday night
into Tuesday as the upper wave tracks across the region.
Unfortunately, the upper wave and associated surface low will not be
a quick mover and will have ample opportunity to bring up some
significant rainfall to our area early next week with POPs in the
forecast through Thursday. The pattern will hold thru the rest of the
week with the latest ECMWF indicating another strong upper level system
poised over the southwest U.S. ready to spread precip back into our area
either late next week or during the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Latest high-res models continue to suggest timing of main line of
convection will be between 00z and 06z at the central Illinois
terminals. Based on the speed of the mid-level flow and the fact
that models often do not accelerate convective lines fast enough
in this type of situation...prefer the slightly faster 4km NAM
solution. As a result, have timed the convection into KPIA between
01z and 03z...then further east to KCMI between 03z and 05z. There
are some indications that scattered storms may develop well ahead
of the approaching cold front...potentially impacting KCMI
earlier in the evening. Will only carry VCTS at this time...but
will continue to monitor later model runs and radar imagery for
possible updates to timing. Once the storms pass...very strong
westerly winds will develop tonight into Thursday. Forecast
soundings and numeric guidance both indicate gusts reaching 35 to
45kt.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1157 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
16z/10am surface chart shows 993mb low over north-central Kansas,
with cold front extending southward through Oklahoma and Texas.
Strong warm advection ahead of the low has resulted in mostly
cloudy skies across all but the far E/SE KILX CWA. Scattered
showers are beginning to develop across southern Iowa/northern
Missouri and these are expected to track into west-central
Illinois west of the I-55 corridor over the next couple of hours.
Latest HRRR suggests showers may become more widespread further
east into the area by early afternoon: however, based on dry low-
level airmass think this may be a bit too aggressive. As a
result, will generally keep PoPs confined to locations west of
I-57 through the day. Main line of thunderstorms is still on
target this evening along the advancing cold front. 12z NAM shows
storms reaching the Mississippi River around Quincy by 00z...then
quickly spreading eastward and exiting the CWA by 06z. Severe
weather risk remains in place, especially along/west of the
Illinois River in closer proximity to the surface low track where
low-level wind shear will be maximized. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary threat, with an isolated tornado possible. The
storms will tend to diminish as they track further eastward after
sunset, with only a minimal chance of a severe wind gust
along/east of I-57 by mid to late evening. Have made some timing
adjustments for PoPs today and tonight, otherwise the current
forecast is in good shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Main weather feature of interest today, a rapidly intensifying area
of low pressure, is currently centered over eastern Colorado. This
low is expected to deepen significantly today as it ejects to Iowa
by 00Z Thursday (6 pm this evening). This continues to be a little
slower than previously anticipated, meaning the bulk of the rainfall
with this system (and severe weather risk) should hold off until
tonight as the trailing cold front swings through the area. Still,
some shower/thunderstorm development can`t be ruled out in the
strong WAA/isentropic lift regime in the warm sector to the east of
the system this afternoon. Have pulled back on PoPs until mid-late
afternoon, and areas near the Indiana border have a pretty good shot
of staying dry through the daytime hours. While gradient winds will
be increasing today with the approach of the system, do not expect a
significant severe storm risk until right along/ahead of the cold
front tonight. Significant cloud cover today will limit surface
heating, but this will be considerably offset by the strengthening
southerly winds. As such, expect most of the forecast area to see
daytime highs topping out in the 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
To summarize, low CAPE, high shear. Tonight`s thunderstorms are
lacking instability in a big way, with little to no CAPE to be found
in the model soundings of a SB parcel. MUCAPE, however, is in the
500-800J/kg range. And the front will be moving quickly through the
region ahead of a rapidly deepening low with the neg tilt at 500mb.
The lack of instability may be countered by the lift along the
front, but thunderstorms will have a difficult time sustaining an
updraft. If thunderstorms develop and manage to sustain for any
length of time, the shear does point to the potential for isolated
tornado development in a more organized storm. The bigger threat is
the winds. The tightening pressure gradient puts significant
sustained winds over the area anyway, and as a result, the Wind
Advisory is in place for tonight. But the upper low is deepening as
well, with gradients increasing aloft. Any rain shower will have
the ability to pull down stronger winds from the mid levels, even in
the absence of a significant storm. Wind gusts so far in the
forecast for tonight are already in the 35 to 45 mph range, with
isolated higher winds possible. It will be a windy night. The
severity of the storms will vary. Severe weather remains possible
through the overnight, however. All of Central Illinois remains in
an SPC risk, with areas roughly west of a line from Bloomington to
Shelbyville in an Enhanced Risk.
Storms should come to an end quickly around or just after midnight,
but the winds will remain in place, increasing towards dawn. Gusts
to 40 mph also expected all day on Thursday and the Wind Advisory
will continue. For now, the wind advisory ends there, although the
northern half of the state remains windy through Friday,
particularly with the gust to 35 mph expected again Friday
afternoon. Cooler air in place will keep the highs in the 40s for
most of Central Illinois for Friday, combined with the wind to make
a chilly day. Friday night, temps will drop below the freezing mark
under the high pressure ridge with light winds in the overnight
setting up a good radiational cooling night. Winds finally picking
up a southerly component again for the weekend to start another slow
warming trend, to near 60F by the later on Sunday. Towards the end
of the weekend and into the first few days of the next week,
southwesterly flow over the region starts to set up and what looks
like a frontal system stalling out over the region providing a focus
for showers for a couple of days. Expect to see some fine tuning
and shifts in the forecast overall in that time frame...but for now
Monday and Tuesday remain wet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Latest high-res models continue to suggest timing of main line of
convection will be between 00z and 06z at the central Illinois
terminals. Based on the speed of the mid-level flow and the fact
that models often do not accelerate convective lines fast enough
in this type of situation...prefer the slightly faster 4km NAM
solution. As a result, have timed the convection into KPIA between
01z and 03z...then further east to KCMI between 03z and 05z. There
are some indications that scattered storms may develop well ahead
of the approaching cold front...potentially impacting KCMI
earlier in the evening. Will only carry VCTS at this time...but
will continue to monitor later model runs and radar imagery for
possible updates to timing. Once the storms pass...very strong
westerly winds will develop tonight into Thursday. Forecast
soundings and numeric guidance both indicate gusts reaching 35 to
45kt.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
16z/10am surface chart shows 993mb low over north-central Kansas,
with cold front extending southward through Oklahoma and Texas.
Strong warm advection ahead of the low has resulted in mostly
cloudy skies across all but the far E/SE KILX CWA. Scattered
showers are beginning to develop across southern Iowa/northern
Missouri and these are expected to track into west-central
Illinois west of the I-55 corridor over the next couple of hours.
Latest HRRR suggests showers may become more widespread further
east into the area by early afternoon: however, based on dry low-
level airmass think this may be a bit too aggressive. As a
result, will generally keep PoPs confined to locations west of
I-57 through the day. Main line of thunderstorms is still on
target this evening along the advancing cold front. 12z NAM shows
storms reaching the Mississippi River around Quincy by 00z...then
quickly spreading eastward and exiting the CWA by 06z. Severe
weather risk remains in place, especially along/west of the
Illinois River in closer proximity to the surface low track where
low-level wind shear will be maximized. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary threat, with an isolated tornado possible. The
storms will tend to diminish as they track further eastward after
sunset, with only a minimal chance of a severe wind gust
along/east of I-57 by mid to late evening. Have made some timing
adjustments for PoPs today and tonight, otherwise the current
forecast is in good shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Main weather feature of interest today, a rapidly intensifying area
of low pressure, is currently centered over eastern Colorado. This
low is expected to deepen significantly today as it ejects to Iowa
by 00Z Thursday (6 pm this evening). This continues to be a little
slower than previously anticipated, meaning the bulk of the rainfall
with this system (and severe weather risk) should hold off until
tonight as the trailing cold front swings through the area. Still,
some shower/thunderstorm development can`t be ruled out in the
strong WAA/isentropic lift regime in the warm sector to the east of
the system this afternoon. Have pulled back on PoPs until mid-late
afternoon, and areas near the Indiana border have a pretty good shot
of staying dry through the daytime hours. While gradient winds will
be increasing today with the approach of the system, do not expect a
significant severe storm risk until right along/ahead of the cold
front tonight. Significant cloud cover today will limit surface
heating, but this will be considerably offset by the strengthening
southerly winds. As such, expect most of the forecast area to see
daytime highs topping out in the 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
To summarize, low CAPE, high shear. Tonight`s thunderstorms are
lacking instability in a big way, with little to no CAPE to be found
in the model soundings of a SB parcel. MUCAPE, however, is in the
500-800J/kg range. And the front will be moving quickly through the
region ahead of a rapidly deepening low with the neg tilt at 500mb.
The lack of instability may be countered by the lift along the
front, but thunderstorms will have a difficult time sustaining an
updraft. If thunderstorms develop and manage to sustain for any
length of time, the shear does point to the potential for isolated
tornado development in a more organized storm. The bigger threat is
the winds. The tightening pressure gradient puts significant
sustained winds over the area anyway, and as a result, the Wind
Advisory is in place for tonight. But the upper low is deepening as
well, with gradients increasing aloft. Any rain shower will have
the ability to pull down stronger winds from the mid levels, even in
the absence of a significant storm. Wind gusts so far in the
forecast for tonight are already in the 35 to 45 mph range, with
isolated higher winds possible. It will be a windy night. The
severity of the storms will vary. Severe weather remains possible
through the overnight, however. All of Central Illinois remains in
an SPC risk, with areas roughly west of a line from Bloomington to
Shelbyville in an Enhanced Risk.
Storms should come to an end quickly around or just after midnight,
but the winds will remain in place, increasing towards dawn. Gusts
to 40 mph also expected all day on Thursday and the Wind Advisory
will continue. For now, the wind advisory ends there, although the
northern half of the state remains windy through Friday,
particularly with the gust to 35 mph expected again Friday
afternoon. Cooler air in place will keep the highs in the 40s for
most of Central Illinois for Friday, combined with the wind to make
a chilly day. Friday night, temps will drop below the freezing mark
under the high pressure ridge with light winds in the overnight
setting up a good radiational cooling night. Winds finally picking
up a southerly component again for the weekend to start another slow
warming trend, to near 60F by the later on Sunday. Towards the end
of the weekend and into the first few days of the next week,
southwesterly flow over the region starts to set up and what looks
like a frontal system stalling out over the region providing a focus
for showers for a couple of days. Expect to see some fine tuning
and shifts in the forecast overall in that time frame...but for now
Monday and Tuesday remain wet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
VFR conditions across the central Illinois terminals will degrade
to MVFR later today as a cold front approaches the area. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead of the cold
front. Included a 2 hour TEMPO group to try and capture the best
chances for thunderstorms this evening. Southerly winds will
increase today as the cold front approaches, with gusts in excess
of 30 kts common by evening. Winds will swing around to the west
behind the front, with gusts over 30 kts lingering through the
night.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1216 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
TODAY WILL FEATURE DYNAMIC AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH SEVERAL
POTENTIAL HAZARDS. A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL EJECT EAST NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY...DEEPENING RAPIDLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OVER IOWA
BY SUNSET. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...EARLY THIS MORNING...WE ARE ALREADY
SEEING RAPID PROLIFERATION OF LOW/MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
IOWA. SOME AREAS ALONG THIS TROUGH FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN IOWA ARE REPORTING LIGHT FOG...BUT ITS DEVELOPMENT IS BEING
HAMPERED BY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE DEPICTING A BREAKOUT OF DENSE FOG WITHIN THE TROUGH
AXIS...MAINLY AFFECTING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...LATER THIS MORNING
TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT SEEMS MITIGATED BY THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...AND NO ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED.
WILL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN CASE ONE
BECOMES WARRANTED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LATER THIS MORNING...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER FORCING ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF THE
LOW. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WHILE THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE HANGING ONTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF...THE HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC AND DEPICTING
MORE LIKE DRIZZLE OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN
SOMEWHAT IN THE MORNING BUT KEPT THEM LARGELY IN THE CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE...WITH OVERCAST SKIES PREVAILING PAST MIDDAY. IN ANY
EVENT NO REAL IMPACT IS FORESEEN FROM ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS EVEN THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST TOWARD NOON.
IN TERMS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A
DRYLINE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH ROCKETING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW/COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS SOMETIME IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES SO...WE SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING ALLOWING FOR
SOME MODEST DESTABILIZATION. WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG
FORCING AND WIND SHEAR/FLOW FIELDS THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHAT TIME CLEARING WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND WHERE
ANY SUCH STORMS WILL INITIATE. HRRR/RAP/NMM/ARW RUNS CONSISTENTLY
BRING A SHARP CLEARING EDGE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 20
OR 21Z WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THAT EDGE. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH CONCEPTUAL MODELS AND SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY WAY THAT
SUCH DISCRETE CELLS COULD TAP INTO THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AS BEHIND THE DRYLINE SURFACE WINDS WILL GO SOUTH SOUTHWEST
AND SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. AT THE SAME TIME...IF THE
STORMS REALLY ARE TIED RIGHT ONTO THE BACK EDGE OF THE LARGE LOW
CLOUD SHIELD...THEN THERE MAY NOT BE TIME TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF
THEM AND THEY COULD BE ELEVATED. HRRR SURFACE CAPE FIELDS SEEM TO
INDICATE THIS WILL BE THE CASE. ALL IN ALL...INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT
FOR SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN
IOWA...HOWEVER IT WILL BE A VERY NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN
TIME AND SPACE AND THINGS WILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT. WE
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY FOR
POSSIBLE WATCH/WARNING ISSUANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FINALLY...AS AFTERNOON STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS INTO IOWA TOWARD SUNSET...VERY STRONG WINDS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THIS IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE LONG
TERM SECTION BELOW...AND WIND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE RACING QUICKLY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT
REMAINS HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY INCREASES AS STRONG PRESSURE
RISES LIFT INTO CENTRAL IOWA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 70-80
UBARS/KM STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH PRESSURE RISES OF 12-15 MB/6
HRS. A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE NEARLY COINCIDENT
TO THE REGION WITH MAX EXPECTED WINDS. WHILE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL HELP MIX THE LOW LEVELS TO NEAR 900 MB WITH 50+ KTS OF WIND
IN THE MIXED LAYER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VERTICAL ASCENT BETWEEN
925-700 MB MAY LIMIT PEAK WINDS A BIT. THAT SAID...PLENTY OF
INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING DOWN TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM THE
DSM METRO AND WEST AND SUSPECT THE POSSIBILITY IT WILL NEED TO BE
EXPANDED FURTHER. SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE
SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 65 MPH BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. STILL POTENTIAL FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE
TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN IOWA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS AND ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHEAST. THE SUBSIDENCE REGION OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
ARRIVE OVER CENTRAL IOWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH WIND CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET ON
THURSDAY THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY THURSDAY.
VERY DRY DEWPOINTS ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SFC
RIDGE PASSING ACROSS IOWA FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR DES MOINES TO REACH FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS FALL PENDING THE TIMING OF RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE THAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERN TROUGH BRINGS
SOUTHWEST FLOW BACK TO THE MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...11/18Z
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE CONVECTION AND WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONGER STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND MORE OVER
NORTHEAST KS ATTM. WILL BE SEEING THE STORMS FLARE RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...REACHING KDSM BETWEEN
20-21Z AT LATEST AND NEARING KOTM BY 23-00Z. WINDS STILL EXPECTED
TO REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS NEARING 45 TO NEAR 50 KTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS
SETTLE SLIGHTLY AFT 12Z THURSDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN STRONG WITH
GUSTS NEAR 45KTS. OTHERWISE...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AFT 03Z
AS COLD AIR ARRIVES...THEN RISE TO VFR BETWEEN 13-15Z THURSDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY TEMPO THUNDER WIND GUSTS AS
STORMS NEAR BOTH KDSM AND KOTM TODAY./REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-
STORY-WARREN-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
MADISON-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-STORY-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
ADAMS-APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-
GRUNDY-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
545 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
TODAY WILL FEATURE DYNAMIC AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH SEVERAL
POTENTIAL HAZARDS. A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL EJECT EAST NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY...DEEPENING RAPIDLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OVER IOWA
BY SUNSET. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...EARLY THIS MORNING...WE ARE ALREADY
SEEING RAPID PROLIFERATION OF LOW/MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
IOWA. SOME AREAS ALONG THIS TROUGH FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN IOWA ARE REPORTING LIGHT FOG...BUT ITS DEVELOPMENT IS BEING
HAMPERED BY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE DEPICTING A BREAKOUT OF DENSE FOG WITHIN THE TROUGH
AXIS...MAINLY AFFECTING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...LATER THIS MORNING
TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT SEEMS MITIGATED BY THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...AND NO ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED.
WILL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN CASE ONE
BECOMES WARRANTED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LATER THIS MORNING...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER FORCING ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF THE
LOW. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WHILE THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE HANGING ONTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF...THE HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC AND DEPICTING
MORE LIKE DRIZZLE OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN
SOMEWHAT IN THE MORNING BUT KEPT THEM LARGELY IN THE CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE...WITH OVERCAST SKIES PREVAILING PAST MIDDAY. IN ANY
EVENT NO REAL IMPACT IS FORESEEN FROM ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS EVEN THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST TOWARD NOON.
IN TERMS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A
DRYLINE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH ROCKETING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW/COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS SOMETIME IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES SO...WE SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING ALLOWING FOR
SOME MODEST DESTABILIZATION. WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG
FORCING AND WIND SHEAR/FLOW FIELDS THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHAT TIME CLEARING WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND WHERE
ANY SUCH STORMS WILL INITIATE. HRRR/RAP/NMM/ARW RUNS CONSISTENTLY
BRING A SHARP CLEARING EDGE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 20
OR 21Z WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THAT EDGE. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH CONCEPTUAL MODELS AND SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY WAY THAT
SUCH DISCRETE CELLS COULD TAP INTO THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AS BEHIND THE DRYLINE SURFACE WINDS WILL GO SOUTH SOUTHWEST
AND SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. AT THE SAME TIME...IF THE
STORMS REALLY ARE TIED RIGHT ONTO THE BACK EDGE OF THE LARGE LOW
CLOUD SHIELD...THEN THERE MAY NOT BE TIME TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF
THEM AND THEY COULD BE ELEVATED. HRRR SURFACE CAPE FIELDS SEEM TO
INDICATE THIS WILL BE THE CASE. ALL IN ALL...INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT
FOR SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN
IOWA...HOWEVER IT WILL BE A VERY NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN
TIME AND SPACE AND THINGS WILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT. WE
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY FOR
POSSIBLE WATCH/WARNING ISSUANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FINALLY...AS AFTERNOON STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS INTO IOWA TOWARD SUNSET...VERY STRONG WINDS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THIS IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE LONG
TERM SECTION BELOW...AND WIND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE RACING QUICKLY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT
REMAINS HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY INCREASES AS STRONG PRESSURE
RISES LIFT INTO CENTRAL IOWA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 70-80
UBARS/KM STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH PRESSURE RISES OF 12-15 MB/6
HRS. A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE NEARLY COINCIDENT
TO THE REGION WITH MAX EXPECTED WINDS. WHILE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL HELP MIX THE LOW LEVELS TO NEAR 900 MB WITH 50+ KTS OF WIND
IN THE MIXED LAYER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VERTICAL ASCENT BETWEEN
925-700 MB MAY LIMIT PEAK WINDS A BIT. THAT SAID...PLENTY OF
INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING DOWN TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM THE
DSM METRO AND WEST AND SUSPECT THE POSSIBILITY IT WILL NEED TO BE
EXPANDED FURTHER. SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE
SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 65 MPH BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. STILL POTENTIAL FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE
TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN IOWA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS AND ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHEAST. THE SUBSIDENCE REGION OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
ARRIVE OVER CENTRAL IOWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH WIND CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET ON
THURSDAY THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY THURSDAY.
VERY DRY DEWPOINTS ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SFC
RIDGE PASSING ACROSS IOWA FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR DES MOINES TO REACH FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS FALL PENDING THE TIMING OF RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE THAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERN TROUGH BRINGS
SOUTHWEST FLOW BACK TO THE MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...11/12Z
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...INITIALLY IN THE
FORM OF LOWERING CIGS AND DEVELOPMENT OF BR...THEN EXPANSION OF
SHRA/TSRA...AND FINALLY VERY STRONG WINDS SURGING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. HAVE TAKEN BEST SHOT AT TIMING THESE VARIOUS FEATURES AND
CHANGES IN THE 12Z TAFS...BUT EXPECT AMENDMENTS TO BE PLENTIFUL
TODAY DUE TO RAPIDLY CHANGING FORECAST AND CONDITIONS WITH A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHING AND MOVING OVER THE AREA.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-
STORY-WARREN-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
MADISON-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-STORY-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
ADAMS-APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-
GRUNDY-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
353 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
TODAY WILL FEATURE DYNAMIC AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH SEVERAL
POTENTIAL HAZARDS. A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL EJECT EAST NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY...DEEPENING RAPIDLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OVER IOWA
BY SUNSET. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...EARLY THIS MORNING...WE ARE ALREADY
SEEING RAPID PROLIFERATION OF LOW/MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
IOWA. SOME AREAS ALONG THIS TROUGH FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN IOWA ARE REPORTING LIGHT FOG...BUT ITS DEVELOPMENT IS BEING
HAMPERED BY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE DEPICTING A BREAKOUT OF DENSE FOG WITHIN THE TROUGH
AXIS...MAINLY AFFECTING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...LATER THIS MORNING
TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT SEEMS MITIGATED BY THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...AND NO ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED.
WILL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN CASE ONE
BECOMES WARRANTED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LATER THIS MORNING...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER FORCING ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF THE
LOW. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WHILE THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE HANGING ONTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF...THE HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC AND DEPICTING
MORE LIKE DRIZZLE OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN
SOMEWHAT IN THE MORNING BUT KEPT THEM LARGELY IN THE CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE...WITH OVERCAST SKIES PREVAILING PAST MIDDAY. IN ANY
EVENT NO REAL IMPACT IS FORESEEN FROM ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS EVEN THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST TOWARD NOON.
IN TERMS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A
DRYLINE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH ROCKETING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW/COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS SOMETIME IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES SO...WE SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING ALLOWING FOR
SOME MODEST DESTABILIZATION. WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG
FORCING AND WIND SHEAR/FLOW FIELDS THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHAT TIME CLEARING WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND WHERE
ANY SUCH STORMS WILL INITIATE. HRRR/RAP/NMM/ARW RUNS CONSISTENTLY
BRING A SHARP CLEARING EDGE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 20
OR 21Z WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THAT EDGE. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH CONCEPTUAL MODELS AND SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY WAY THAT
SUCH DISCRETE CELLS COULD TAP INTO THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AS BEHIND THE DRYLINE SURFACE WINDS WILL GO SOUTH SOUTHWEST
AND SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. AT THE SAME TIME...IF THE
STORMS REALLY ARE TIED RIGHT ONTO THE BACK EDGE OF THE LARGE LOW
CLOUD SHIELD...THEN THERE MAY NOT BE TIME TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF
THEM AND THEY COULD BE ELEVATED. HRRR SURFACE CAPE FIELDS SEEM TO
INDICATE THIS WILL BE THE CASE. ALL IN ALL...INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT
FOR SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN
IOWA...HOWEVER IT WILL BE A VERY NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN
TIME AND SPACE AND THINGS WILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT. WE
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY FOR
POSSIBLE WATCH/WARNING ISSUANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FINALLY...AS AFTERNOON STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS INTO IOWA TOWARD SUNSET...VERY STRONG WINDS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THIS IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE LONG
TERM SECTION BELOW...AND WIND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE RACING QUICKLY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT
REMAINS HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY INCREASES AS STRONG PRESSURE
RISES LIFT INTO CENTRAL IOWA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 70-80
UBARS/KM STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH PRESSURE RISES OF 12-15 MB/6
HRS. A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE NEARLY COINCIDENT
TO THE REGION WITH MAX EXPECTED WINDS. WHILE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL HELP MIX THE LOW LEVELS TO NEAR 900 MB WITH 50+ KTS OF WIND
IN THE MIXED LAYER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VERTICAL ASCENT BETWEEN
925-700 MB MAY LIMIT PEAK WINDS A BIT. THAT SAID...PLENTY OF
INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING DOWN TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM THE
DSM METRO AND WEST AND SUSPECT THE POSSIBILITY IT WILL NEED TO BE
EXPANDED FURTHER. SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE
SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 65 MPH BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. STILL POTENTIAL FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE
TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN IOWA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS AND ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHEAST. THE SUBSIDENCE REGION OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
ARRIVE OVER CENTRAL IOWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH WIND CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET ON
THURSDAY THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY THURSDAY.
VERY DRY DEWPOINTS ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SFC
RIDGE PASSING ACROSS IOWA FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR DES MOINES TO REACH FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS FALL PENDING THE TIMING OF RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE THAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERN TROUGH BRINGS
SOUTHWEST FLOW BACK TO THE MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...11/06Z ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME BREAKS IN CEILINGS BUT MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT INTO IOWA AND STRATUS IS PUSHING IN FROM THE NW SO OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF LOCATIONS.
PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP AND THE MODELS ARE SLOWING
THE SYSTEM DOWN SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIP
OVERNIGHT BUT ELEVATED STORMS STILL POSSIBLE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO IA DURING THE MORNING WITH THE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE STATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND STILL FORECAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM
AFTER 12/00Z AND BEYOND.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-
STORY-WARREN-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
MADISON-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-STORY-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
ADAMS-APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-
GRUNDY-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
325 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHILE AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS ALSO MAKING FOR A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY. HERE IN THE EAST...THOUGH...WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE
SUBDUED...BUT STILL TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S NORTH AND TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH. A BAND OF
HIGH CLOUDS DID DEVELOP AND HELPED SLOW THE TEMP RISE IN THE
NORTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHARP CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEY ALL DEPICT THIS LOW PUSHING
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
BAND OF WEAKENING ENERGY DOWN INTO KENTUCKY. BY THURSDAY
EVENING...THE MAIN LOW WILL BE PASSING INTO ONTARIO WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A SERIES OF MINOR ENERGY PACKETS THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILD START TO THE EVENING...BUT
ALSO A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WILL MIX THOSE COLDER TEMPERATURES OUT
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST PLACES. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO
THE LIKELY SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT THESE TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA
WITH THE FALLING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET AND AN OUTRUNNING OF
MID LEVEL SUPPORT. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT THE WORST OF
IT TO BE GENERALLY JUST SOME GUSTY SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY ALONG AND FOLLOWING THIS FRONT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.
WILL HIT THE WINDS HARD IN THE HWO AND ALSO ISSUE AN SPS
HIGHLIGHTING THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
FOR THURSDAY. ONE LAST WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED...POST FRONTAL...
BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA MOVES IN LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
VALLEY DROP OFF AND TO A LESSER AND OPPOSITE EXTENT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO ALL
GUIDANCE IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TONIGHT AND GENERALLY JUST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE EXITING TO THE EAST FOR THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...REINFORCING THIS TROUGH.
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH VERY DRY LOW/MID
LEVELS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS DYING OFF...AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING. WITH
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVERHEAD...EXPECT COLD MORNINGS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S. SOME
READINGS INTO THE LOWER 20S WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND...BUT STILL EXPECTING
SOME DECENT RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
A SHARP TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE REMAINS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THIS FEATURE...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE FEATURE IS STILL WELL OFF
SHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS. FOR THIS REASON...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH ON
WHEN RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION. IT APPEARS THE
BEST STAB AT RAIN CHANCES MOVING BACK IN WOULD BE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL PLAY A PART IN HOW MUCH
DOWNSLOPING WE SEE...WHICH MAY DELAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL ALL IMPACT
THE AVIATION COMMUNITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE. A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND LOWER WITH TIME INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BE FELT UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
THE MAIN TAF SITES. BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z IT IS LIKELY THAT A BAND OF
GUSTY SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT SHOULD THE BAND BE STRONG ENOUGH MOVING OUT OF
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS.
FROM THE SHOWERS VIS AND CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART JUST A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH INTO THE EVENING AT
10 KTS OR LESS. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS BY
12Z THURSDAY. IN THE FRONT/S WAKE...THEY WILL FURTHER INCREASE OUT
OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST REACHING 15 TO 25 KTS...INCLUDING
GUSTS...INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1018 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Keeping an eye on two main concerns for this afternoon and evening.
The primary concern is severe weather potential. The latest 12z nam
is similar to earlier mesoscale models (namely the 00z nmm and arw)
with the timing of precipitation development. These models indicate
a fairly large area of showers and elevated storms will develop in
the 21z to 00z time frame across se Missouri and southern IL. This
precip develops in a zone of strong low-level warm/moist advection
well ahead of the cold front. This convection will be based around
850 mb and should pose relatively little if any severe potential.
Of more concern is the potential for a squall line/qlcs along the
cold front later this evening. Along the front is where the nam/nmm
indicate a narrow axis of surface-based instability. If surface-
based convection can develop along the front, there is a strong
possibility of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. However, a mid-
level dry slot is forecast to impinge on the front, which may be why
the 12z nam fails to generate convection along the front itself. The
12z NAM model sounding brings the K-index below zero as the front
passes through the KPOF area this evening.
12z NAM forecast soundings indicate that surface-based instability
along the front will weaken and become more elevated during the
night. Therefore, the highest severe potential still appears to be
over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Secondary concern is gradient winds. The models are forecasting near-
surface lapse rates to be a little steeper than they indicated
yesterday. Looking at NAM and RAP data in bufkit, could not rule out
some gusts to advisory criteria early this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Our storm of the week is currently churning over western Colorado
per the latest water vapor imagery. The sfc low is situated in east
central Colorado. 00Z RAOB at KABQ shows core of the upper level jet
passing through with 162 kts noted at around 250mb. Low level winds
already cranking up over TX/OK bringing lower 60s dewpoints into the
southern Plains. The upper level low will move into the central
Plains this afternoon and then northeast into the Great Lakes late
tonight. At the surface, a steadily deepening low pressure system
will translate northeast from Kansas early today to Lake Michigan by
12Z Thursday. A trailing cold front will quickly move east
throughout the day and reach our western border by around 00Z
Thursday.
While we could see some activity move into the Ozarks of Missouri by
late morning, per several short term models, the bulk of the
precipitation will move into our western counties by late afternoon
and then translate east of the Mississippi River throughout the
evening hours. It seems as though the models have slowed down the
progression of the cold front just a tad. Plus, there may be two
waves of convection that come through...first being ahead of the
front and then another band right with the front. Some lingering
precipitation could be impacting our eastern sections after 06Z
Thursday but most areas should see the rain ending.
Gradient winds: We will see winds begin to pick up especially this
afternoon as the system gets closer. Sustained winds could be 20 to
25 mph at times with gusts up to 40 mph depending on how well we
mix. These gusts will be concentrated in southeast MO and southwest
IL this afternoon and then across the entire area during the
evening/overnight. In addition...the gusts will likely be higher as
we head into the early evening due to the main system in our
vicinity and low level winds increasing. Not inclined to issue
any headlines for wind at this moment in time but this will need
to be watched by the day shift. Will continue to highlight in HWO.
Possible severe weather: Latest SPC outlook now places the enhanced
risk north of our CWA. While the wind shear over the area is
impressive, instability parameters continue to point to the fact
that updrafts will have a difficult time sustaining themselves. Even
though we should see dewpoints surge into the lower 60s in most
places today, mid level lapse rates are poor and sfc temps will only
reach around 70. Even though there is a bit of MUCAPE forecast by
the models, it is definitely on the lower end of what we need to
sustain organized convection. Models do indicate some meager SBCAPE
(Less than 500 j/kg) early in the evening over SEMO and southern IL
right along and ahead of the front, which decreases as the evening
progresses. So SPC having southwest IN and the Pennyrile region of
west KY in a marginal risk does make sense. Might have to reduce
thunder chances in our east as well. However, with all that being
said, low level lapse rates are not too bad and with the intense
atmospheric winds we are dealing with, we could be looking at
damaging wind gusts being a problem with any convection that
forms.
As far as tornadoes, the threat is limited but not zero. However,
local studies suggest when the wind shear is as high as it is with
this system, only isolated tornadoes (maybe one or two) usually
resulted. Continue to think that if any tornadoes were to form,
they would be short lived, unless something changes with the level
of instability today/tonight.
After the convection leaves the area...we will be left with
continued windy conditions late tonight as the sfc low moves into
the Great Lakes. We could have some wraparound cloudiness as well
overnight but that should move off to the northeast throughout the
day on Thursday as the low moves even further east. The gradient
will remain fairly strong even into early Friday especially in
the northeast. High pressure finally builds into the area Friday
night and winds calm down. Highs on Thursday will be back down to
around 60 deg, but cooler readings are expected for Friday as
another upper level trough swings through.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
There is fairly high confidence in the overall trends through the
extended portion of the forecast, but there continues to be some
timing issues for precipitation chances next week.
Surface high pressure will settle right over the four state region
Friday night, and then slowly shift south/southeast over the
weekend. This will result in generally week south winds
developing Saturday, but the Gulf will effectively be shut down.
As we head into next week, the surface high will push farther
east, eventually allowing the Gulf to be tapped. Aloft, rising
500mb heights will be the rule through the weekend, but the upper-
ridge will shift east of the area as we head into next week.
The models are in much better agreement in handling a significant
batch of energy coming off of the Pacific Sunday night and
Monday. The models develop a closed low over the southwest states,
and southwesterly flow over our region. One question mark for next
week is how much precipitation will accompany a lead disturbance
Sunday night and Monday. The GFS is wetter and faster to bring
showers through our region in that timeframe, while the GEM and
ECMWF are slower, possibly keeping eastern sections dry through
Monday. Given that the Gulf is not likely to be tapped by this
lead disturbance figure the slower, drier solution is best here.
The GFS and ECMWF eventually open the Gulf for significant
northward transport of low-level moisture Monday night into
Wednesday, as the southwester upper low pushes eastward into the
Plains and eventually northeast toward the Great Lakes. With
strong southerly flow through the troposphere ahead of this
system, heavy rainfall will be a concern. Unfortunately, the ECMWF
is about 24 hours faster to bring the system through our region.
Would not be surprised if the slower solution is best here, given
that the system is closed off. For now we Will have good chance
to likely PoPs over much of the region from Monday night through
Wednesday. May need them into Wednesday night if the GFS is
correct.
We will start off rather cool Saturday and then have a minor
warming trend through Monday. As moisture and precipitation become
more prominent next week, we will see rather small diurnal ranges
with lows climbing above normal levels, and high being stuck at or
below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 521 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
As low pressure approaches today, winds will pick up from the
south, especially by afternoon. By late afternoon and evening,
sustained winds around 15-20 kts are forecast to gust in excess of
25 knots. A few showers may reach KCGI and perhaps KPAH by dusk,
but the greatest potential for showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms should hold off until this evening. A brief period
of MVFR conditions is possible with the precipitation activity.
The main concern with thunderstorm activity will be strong wind
gusts. Winds shift around to the southwest after frontal passage
this evening and remain gusty.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
Update...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1207 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES IN REPONSE TO A TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. AS A
RESULT...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER MILD NOV DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
DESPITE FAIRLY THICK CI SPREADING OVERHEAD...TEMPS HAVE STILL RISEN
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD...A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE REACHED 60F.
TONIGHT...LINGERING DRY AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH
THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER LIGHT SW WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FAVORED THE
LOWER END OF AVBL GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE BIAS CORRECTED
REGIONAL GEM. EXPECT TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE SCNTRL
AND E TO FALL TO THE MID 20S. DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
OVER THE W AND NCNTRL WILL ONLY FALL TO THE UPPER 30S/LWR 40S. LIGHT
SW FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN ADVECTING HIGHER DWPTS INTO THE CHILLY
INTERIOR WILL LEAD TO FOG AND MAYBE SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE
ERN FCST AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
ON WED...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE CURRENT WRN CONUS TROF WHICH WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE PLAINS. ENERGY SWINGING THRU BASE OF THE TROF
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT 12HR HEIGHT FALLS...REACHING 230-250M AT
500MB BY 00Z THU OVER SRN IA/NRN MO. IN RESPONSE...INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL LEAD TO MOISTURE SURGING N UP THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WED. PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1 INCH WILL REACH AT
LEAST CNTRL WI BY EVENING. A SLOW/STEADY INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME -RA SPREADING INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTN. WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT STILL OFF TO
THE SW OF UPPER MI THRU THE AFTN...THE MAIN PCPN EVENT WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL WED NIGHT. GIVEN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...
GENERALLY UTILIZED A CONSENSUS OF AVBL GUIDANCE FOR SPREADING SCHC
TO CHC POPS NE INTO ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE
AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONG LOW THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN DRAGGING A TRAILING TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF AFDS...THE STORM PERFORMS MUCH OF ITS STRENGTHENING
AS IT IS NEARING THE AREA AND THEN BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST UPPER MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. THIS WILL END UP LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THE
WINDS FOR OUR CWA AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THINK THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT (LEADING
TO THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION) WILL HELP KEEP THE WINDS IN CHECK.
THAT BEING SAID...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SOME GALES TO 35KTS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND GUSTS TO 20-30KTS OVER SOME OF THE
EASTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...THE WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WHERE THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ARE OCCURRING AND THERE IS
35-40KT LOW LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT THAT TO OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LIKELY PRODUCE GALES OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE FINAL SURGE OF STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH THAT DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
30-35KT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE HEIGHTENED WORDING IN THE HWO (ALTHOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER VALUES) AND ADD A MENTION OF STRONG WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOR PRECIPITATION...THE INITIAL SURGE ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIED TO THE BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK DRY
SLOT ALOFT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN CWA. BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK/MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION DURING
THE REST OF THE EVENT WILL BE TIED TO THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AIDED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C. THOSE FALLING TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WEST-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.P. TO LEAD TO A MARKED
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING OVER THE WESTERN U.P.. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TAKE A
LITTLE LONGER TO REACH THE EASTERN U.P....BUT SHOULD SEE IT TAKE OFF
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. ONCE IT TURNS OVER TO SNOW...THINK SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE (SNOW RATIOS AROUND 9 TO 1 WITH THE BEST FORCING
BELOW THE DGZ) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND DEFINITELY
THINK HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE SHIFTS. PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST 0.75IN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OUT WEST NEARING 1.5 INCHES.
ADD TO THAT AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.85 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OVER THE WEST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION AFTER A DRY FALL.
AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TRENDS TEMPERATURES BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE ENERGY IS SPLIT WELL TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO DON/T EXPECT TOO SIGNIFICANT
OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT FELT CHANCE POPS WERE REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
A LITTLE BIT OF MVFR TYPE FOG...PROBABLY JUST SOME GROUND FOG...HAS
DEVELOPED AT SAW. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 2 OR 3 DEGREES...DO NOT
EXPECT THE FOG TO GET WORSE THAN MVFR. OTHERWISE...SOME MID CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. ALL SITES SHOULD STAY
VFR ON WED...BUT CIGS WILL START TO LOWER ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE DEEPENING LOW MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EXPECT RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS TO SPREAD ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN WED NIGHT. IN FACT...BY MIDNIGHT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
TO SEE SOME LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WITH THE MOIST
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING UNDER A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE PLAINS WHERE DEEPENING
LOW PRES WILL LIFT NE TO IA LATE WED AFTN. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK
TO NEAR THE STRAITS BY MID AFTN THU AND TO SRN QUEBEC BY FRI
MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP LATE WED AFTN AND WILL
PEAK LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING WHEN GALES ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER
DIMINISHING TO 20-30KT FOR THU AFTN/EVENING...WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE TO NW GALES FOR AT LEAST CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THU NIGHT/FRI IN THE WAKE OF A TROF PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW PRES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO 10-20KT OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ162-263-264-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
607 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON REMAINS THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT
TERM. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND REMAINING GUSTY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SRN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS ONGOING OVER WRN
KANSAS AND A SFC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED NWD THROUGH NEB INTO WRN
MINNESOTA. THIS WEAK N-S ORIENTED TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EWD THIS MORNING AND COMBINE WITH BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM
STRONG DIV ALOFT TO SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS N-CENTRAL MN
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THE PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA
WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3
INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT AND A LAYER OF
MID-LEVEL F-GEN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH MODEST WAA AND PWATS AROUND
0.75 TO 1 INCH WILL ALL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAIN FROM
THE TWIN CITIES TO THE HAYWARD LAKES REGION AND IRONWOOD MI.
THE RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES FROM CENTRAL IA TO
NEAR GREEN BAY WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL ALLOW A STRONG
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
PRES GRAD WILL INDUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. ANOTHER CONCERN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
FORMATION OF FOG ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
REMAIN POSITIONED OVER A RELATIVELY COOL LAKE. THE ADDITION OF
MOISTURE INTO THE COOL NEAR SFC LAYER IN THE FORM OF RAIN WILL ALLOW
FOR FOG TO FORM.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES SLOWLY EWD BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. WILL ALSO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
DIABATIC COOLING FROM THE LARGE DUMP OF RAIN DUMPED INTO THE
COLUMN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAIN TO QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SOME TIME LATE THURSDAY MORNING OR DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF
THIS OCCURS SOONER THAN EXPECTED...SNOW TOTALS MAY END UP BEING
HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE THUR AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER QUEBEC AND A SECONDARY...BUT
STILL POTENT...RE-ENFORCING UPPER LOW MOVES IN QUICKLY FROM THE NE
AND PHASES WITH THE LOW TO THE EAST AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ADDITIONAL
LIFT TO KEEP THE SNOW GOING. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW
THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND. THE HIGHEST AMTS WILL BE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE IN NW WI. THE TWIN PORTS...CLOSE TO THE LAKE
WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE AROUND AN INCH...BUT LOCATIONS FURTHER FROM
THE LAKE MAY APPROACH 2 TO 3 INCHES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE N/NE TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND
REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ONSET OF COLDER TEMPERATURES...ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
CLOSE TO 40 ON THURSDAY...COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND SNOWFALL
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF WEAK LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY ALONG THE ERN PORTIONS OF BAYFIELD COUNTY AND
NRN DOUGLAS...AND OVER FAR NERN IRON COUNTY WHERE THE NNW FETCH OFF
THE LAKE WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 6
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET THE
NEXT SHIFT MAKE THE CALL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WELL WEST OUT OF THE MAIN LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND ON FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING MOVING OVER THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OVER THE SNOWBELT REGION OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES DUE
TO A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONAL LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SNOWBELT...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE. ONE OTHER AREA WHERE
SNOW MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME ACCUMULATION FRIDAY MORNING IS
ACROSS DOUGLAS AND FAR NORTHWEST BAYFIELD COUNTIES INTO FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY DUE TO A GRAVITY WAVE. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH GOOD MOISTURE EARLY. DRIER AIR DOES MOVE IN RATHER
QUICKLY...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO WITH THE
SNOW ENDING BY LATE MORNING.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE FLOW BACKING
TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING. HIGHS SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST MONDAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR RAIN ON MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER MOVING
THE LOW THROUGH VERSUS A MUCH SLOWER ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT
FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER THE OTHER AND HAVE CHANCES FOR RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. IF
THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING CORRECT SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL AGAIN
OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THIS
TROUGH AND HAVE MOVED INTO KBRD/KINL. THE RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE
ON THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND CONTINUES TO MOVE THEM SLOWLY EAST. WE
KEPT THEM OUT OF KHIB/KDLH FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS UNLIKELY TO REACH
KDLH BUT COULD IMPACT KHIB BRIEFLY.
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO IOWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN IFR FOR ALL AREAS AS RAIN MOVES
NORTH. THE RAIN WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN IMPACTING KHYR.
THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THEN
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND BE MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 46 38 39 30 / 30 80 80 70
INL 44 33 36 26 / 20 60 70 70
BRD 45 35 37 29 / 30 50 40 50
HYR 50 40 40 28 / 70 100 80 80
ASX 49 41 42 29 / 50 100 90 90
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST FRIDAY
FOR LSZ121-146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR LSZ140>143.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1230 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2015
Thunderstorm event still set for later this afternoon and this
evening, but the timing looks to be primarily 4pm to 9pm.
Two areas will affect our region: one from the west, currently
a N-S oriented line over eastern KS and southeastern Nebraska,
will be associated with the primary severe threat for damaging
straight-line winds and tornadoes as it slides east across
northern MO and central IL.
The second area is taking shape over northeast OK and far
southwest MO and will enter through southeast MO and move
northeast from there, expected to clip STL metro and into
southwest IL. While there will be a reduced severe threat with
this, it will still exist.
All of this should come to an end by 9-10pm.
Strong winds still on track, primarily after cold FROPA tonight,
but will affect central and northeast MO as early as this
afternoon with some deeper mixing anticipated ahead of the front.
No changes currently to the Wind Advisory.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2015
Long-advertised storm system is beginning to work its way into
the Plains early today. All of the 00z model runs and subsequent
high-res guidance has slowed the movement of the system just a bit,
with the intense upper level low now progged to reach western Iowa
by this evening. This also means a slower eastward progression of
the strong cold front across the area, with the front now progged to
be approaching our far western counties by late in the afternoon.
Unfortunately, lots of questions remain with regards to specific
evolution of precip, and the possibly of severe convection. All of
the solutions at least hint at some elevated shower activity
developing well ahead of the frontal boundary. While some of this
may be suggesting saturation that leads to clouds rather than actual
precip, there does seem to be some consensus of a higher probability
of showers developing and working across the eastern Ozarks this
afternoon, ahead of the main cold front.
Although models have slowed the system a bit, they remain in good
agreement with earlier solutions that kinematics with this system
will be quite intense and very favorable for the support of severe
convection, with model consensus indicating at least 80kts of 0-6km
shear, along with a favorably backed low level flow in advance of
the surface low. The primary question has been...and still
is...whether there will be enough instability to sustain convection,
and elevated showers in the warm sector ahead of the cold front
would certainly suppress heating and potential instability. Given
such intense wind fields it will not take much to storms to approach
severe levels, but as noted by SPC in the day 1 outlook it could be
that if we don`t have enough instability the strong shear could rip
the updrafts apart. Certainly, any storm that is able to maintain
updraft intensity will have the potential to become severe. It`s
also interesting that the covection allowing models seem to support
the idea of cells remaining discrete through late afternoon, which
would certainly enhance severe potential if that were to occur.
Bottom line...we probably won`t have a good handle on exact
potential until AMS shows it`s hand WRT instability during the
afternoon. One thing is certain however...if the storms do go there
forward speed is going to be very high...likely over 50kts.
Wind advisory currently runs from 18z this afternoon until 12z
Thursday morning, and not planning any changes at this time. While
it will be windy this afternoon, it may be that low clouds and
limited heating will keep gusts from quite reaching criteria.
However, by tonight this system should become quite the wind machine
in our CWA...see additional details in the long term discussion that
follows.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2015
(Tonight)
The tonight period will begin with the cold front beginning oriented
roughly from NNE to SSW just west of the Mississippi River. As
alluded to above...this is a few hours slower than it looked 24
hours ago. Severe weather will remain the primary concern along the
boundary as a very narrow instability axis combined with extrememly
strong wind shear with height will likely yield some severe weather
early in the period with damaging winds and tornadoes possible.
By 0600 UTC...front should be east of CWA with threat of severe
weather also shifting eastward. Attention will then turn to very
strong gradient winds. Low-level cyclone will continue to deepen as
it heads northeast from Iowa into eastern Wisconsin by late tonight.
Very strong gradient winds are still anticipated across much of the
CWA...particularly the northern third. Strongest wind gusts look to
be between 0300 and 0900 UTC tonight across portions of northeast
Missouri and west-central Illinois with wind gusts of 40-45+ knots.
If the GFS soundings turn out to be correct...would not be surprised
if high wind warning criteria is neared.
Low temperatures tonight will be a bit cooler behind the front but
still near normal for early/mid November. Forecast lows for tonight
range from the low to mid 40s across the bi-state area.
(Thursday - Sunday)
Strong westerly winds will continue into at least the first part of
Thursday. Wind gusts should be below advisory criteria...but
subsequent shifts will have to keep an eye on this to see if an
extension is warrented for portions of northeast Missouri and west-
central Illinois.
Used a blend of the warmer MAV and the cooler MET guidance for highs
on Thursday due to a westerly sfc wind and a clear sky but also
strong low-level CAA. Near normal high temperatures are anticipated.
A dry and seasonable weather pattern will continue through this
weekend with northwest flow aloft. Cooler conditions are expected on
Friday and Friday night behind a secondary cold front and
reinforcing shot of colder air. Highs on Friday will be about 5
degrees below normal but return flow already begins for Saturday so
a quick bounce back in temperatures are likely.
(Sunday Night - Tuesday)
Increasing clouds and another chance of rain begins on Sunday night
as another strong trough digs into the four corners region. Models
are not sure how to handle the evolution of this trough this far out
which is no surprise. Current NWP guidance suggests a piece will
eject out and give our region a chance of rain early next week with
the main system holding back and not affecting the mid-Mississippi
Valley until after this forecast package.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2015
VFR conditions will prevail thru much of the valid period.
Exception may be this afternoon with area of high-end MVFR CIGs
moving into various parts of the area, but looks doubtful enough
now that this will remain MVFR to raise it to 3500ft for most
sites. The other exception will be with likely probs of at least
strong TSRA moving thru late this afternoon and early evening.
Otherwise, the main story will be strong winds, both before and
after the front, but especially behind the front tonight.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions will prevail thru much of the
valid period. Exception may be this afternoon with area of high-
end MVFR CIGs moving into the area, but looks doubtful enough now
that this will remain MVFR to raise it to 3500ft. The other
exception will be with likely probs of at least strong TSRA
moving thru between 00 and 02z. Otherwise, the main story will be
strong winds, both before and after the front, but especially
behind the front tonight.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-
Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-
Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1213 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
...Active Weather this Afternoon...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Dryline at 11:30am was located along a line from Lawrence, KS to
Tulsa, OK. Cumulus development was occurring along the line and
some scattered shower/storm development was beginning to occur
across Northeast Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas. This mornings 12z
and the special 18Z sounding showed a significant amount of dry
air located above 800mb, which is a limiting factor for our severe
threat today. Storms that are trying to form in NE Oklahoma are
having a hard time maintaining organization. Wind shear is not an
issue with 0-6km bulk shear of 80kts and a 50kt low level jet
pushing into the area. Mid level lapse rates were slightly better
further to the north into Central Missouri.
Hi res models are starting to hone in on two areas of
storms across our area. One area being scattered storms moving
out of nw Arkansas across far southern missouri into southcentral
missouri this afternoon. The second area being across our Central
Missouri, along and north of US highway 54 where isolated storms
may have slightly better organization. The entire area however
still has the opportunity for scattered storm development. If
storms can maintain there organization as they develop across the
area, damaging wind gusts to 60mph still looks to be the main
risk. A tornado risk is limited at this point due to lack of
overall storm organization. Overall confidence in severe weather
occurring today is low.
However, confidence is high that we will see non thunderstorm
wind gusts behind the dryline this afternoon gust to 40-50mph
across the western half of the area. Strong pressure rises are
occurring across SW kansas/Northern OK and starting to see some
50mph wind gusts in that area. The RAP soundings for Joplin shows
momentum transfer/mixing of 50kts+ to the surface, therefore we
will be watching closely for the potential for a high wind warning
for areas along the I-49 corridor. Timeframe for the highest wind
gusts looks to be from mid to late afternoon. RH values will drop
rapidly behind the dryline and the going Red Flag Warning looks
good.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0313 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Severe storms, very strong winds, and fire weather all continue
to be a concern for today.
Severe weather: The general scenario is the same. Strengthening
low pressure over nw KS will move northeast to the IA/NEB border
by 21z/3pm. First a trailing dryline will move into our se KS
counties early this afternoon then quick shift east to the eastern
edge of out eastern counties in south central by early evening.
This speed is a little slower than previous simulations. A cold
front will eventually follow on the heels of the dryline tonight.
The warm sector ahead of the dry line will have almost off the
chart vertical shear to work with as a upper level jet max shifts
east into the area this afternoon. An elevated mixed layer (eml)
will strongly cap the region this morning while shallow moisture
advects into the area. Already seeing evidence of the moisture
advection with lower clouds moving quickly into the area.
Synoptic scale lift will be strong in diffluent flow aloft and
this lift will spread into the region late this morning helping to
break the cap. But poor lapse rates in the mid levels and a
relatively shallow Gulf air mass will limit the overall
instability to 200-300 j/kg MLCAPE, most of which will be in the
low levels. Better instability with cooler mid levels will will
exist closer to the closed upper low to our north.
Given the high end vertical wind fields, we still have to be
cautious as convection develops this afternoon. With a
weakened/broken cap some warm sector convection will begin with
the best chances over the eastern cwfa either on the dry line or
ahead of it in the warm sector similar to high res model output.
If a stronger updraft can survive the shear, a severe storm threat
will exist with damaging winds the main concern. The SPC enhanced
risk was shifted to the north of the area where there is better
chance for stronger updrafts/instability, but will have to watch
how far south deeper convection can develop late this afternoon
over central MO along the dryline.
The wind advisory continues, but did add some counties where I
believe we will have stronger gusts in higher terrain late today.
Strongly considering a high wind warning for some se KS counties
and will continue to take a look. 50+ mph non-thunderstorm wind
gusts will be possible, especially over se KS into west central
MO. Gusty winds will diminish this evening but remain fairly
strong tonight as they shift from the west-wnw.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 0313 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
A cooler and dry air mass will spread into the area with a large
sfc high moving through the area Fri. A warming trend will develop
as the sfc high moves off to the east over the weekend. Moisture
will spread back to the north ahead of an approaching shortwave
next week with increasing chances for showers late Sunday, Mon,
Tue.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 1150 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Pilots flying to area terminals can expect increasing wind
this afternoon as a strong storm system tracks into the
region. Southwesterly winds will increase with frequent gusts
over 30 kts especially at the Joplin and Springfield terminals.
Gusts over 40kts will occur at times at the Joplin terminal.
Scattered storms will develop along an advancing dry line which
may impact terminal vicinities this afternoon. Widespread MVFR
ceilings will persist ahead of the dry line before giving way to
a clearing sky from westto east.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0239 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
With high end advisory winds and rapid drying behind the dryline
this afternoon over the western cwfa, will go with a Red Flag
Warning for our two western most tiers of counties. An elevated
fire danger will exist over a larger area into the evening with
the drier air mass moving in. We are not expecting much (or in
some cases any) rain so fuels will remain dry.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for MOZ055>058-066>070-
077>081-088>091-093>095-101>103.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for MOZ066-077-088-
093-101.
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Burchfield
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch
FIRE WEATHER...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
604 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2015
Long-advertised storm system is beginning to work its way into
the Plains early today. All of the 00z model runs and subsequent
high-res guidance has slowed the movement of the system just a bit,
with the intense upper level low now progged to reach western Iowa
by this evening. This also means a slower eastward progression of
the strong cold front across the area, with the front now progged to
be approaching our far western counties by late in the afternoon.
Unfortunately, lots of questions remain with regards to specific
evolution of precip, and the possibly of severe convection. All of
the solutions at least hint at some elevated shower activity
developing well ahead of the frontal boundary. While some of this
may be suggesting saturation that leads to clouds rather than actual
precip, there does seem to be some consensus of a higher probability
of showers developing and working across the eastern Ozarks this
afternoon, ahead of the main cold front.
Although models have slowed the system a bit, they remain in good
agreement with earlier solutions that kinematics with this system
will be quite intense and very favorable for the support of severe
convection, with model consensus indicating at least 80kts of 0-6km
shear, along with a favorably backed low level flow in advance of
the surface low. The primary question has been...and still
is...whether there will be enough instability to sustain convection,
and elevated showers in the warm sector ahead of the cold front
would certainly suppress heating and potential instability. Given
such intense wind fields it will not take much to storms to approach
severe levels, but as noted by SPC in the day 1 outlook it could be
that if we don`t have enough instability the strong shear could rip
the updrafts apart. Certainly, any storm that is able to maintain
updraft intensity will have the potential to become severe. It`s
also interesting that the covection allowing models seem to support
the idea of cells remaining discrete through late afternoon, which
would certainly enhance severe potential if that were to occur.
Bottom line...we probably won`t have a good handle on exact
potential until AMS shows it`s hand WRT instability during the
afternoon. One thing is certain however...if the storms do go there
forward speed is going to be very high...likely over 50kts.
Wind advisory currently runs from 18z this afternoon until 12z
Thursday morning, and not planning any changes at this time. While
it will be windy this afternoon, it may be that low clouds and
limited heating will keep gusts from quite reaching criteria.
However, by tonight this system should become quite the wind machine
in our CWA...see additional details in the long term discussion that
follows.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2015
(Tonight)
The tonight period will begin with the cold front beginning oriented
roughly from NNE to SSW just west of the Mississippi River. As
alluded to above...this is a few hours slower than it looked 24
hours ago. Severe weather will remain the primary concern along the
boundary as a very narrow instability axis combined with extrememly
strong wind shear with height will likely yield some severe weather
early in the period with damaging winds and tornadoes possible.
By 0600 UTC...front should be east of CWA with threat of severe
weather also shifting eastward. Attention will then turn to very
strong gradient winds. Low-level cyclone will continue to deepen as
it heads northeast from Iowa into eastern Wisconsin by late tonight.
Very strong gradient winds are still anticipated across much of the
CWA...particularly the northern third. Strongest wind gusts look to
be between 0300 and 0900 UTC tonight across portions of northeast
Missouri and west-central Illinois with wind gusts of 40-45+ knots.
If the GFS soundings turn out to be correct...would not be surprised
if high wind warning criteria is neared.
Low temperatures tonight will be a bit cooler behind the front but
still near normal for early/mid November. Forecast lows for tonight
range from the low to mid 40s across the bi-state area.
(Thursday - Sunday)
Strong westerly winds will continue into at least the first part of
Thursday. Wind gusts should be below advisory criteria...but
subsequent shifts will have to keep an eye on this to see if an
extension is warrented for portions of northeast Missouri and west-
central Illinois.
Used a blend of the warmer MAV and the cooler MET guidance for highs
on Thursday due to a westerly sfc wind and a clear sky but also
strong low-level CAA. Near normal high temperatures are anticipated.
A dry and seasonable weather pattern will continue through this
weekend with northwest flow aloft. Cooler conditions are expected on
Friday and Friday night behind a secondary cold front and
reinforcing shot of colder air. Highs on Friday will be about 5
degrees below normal but return flow already begins for Saturday so
a quick bounce back in temperatures are likely.
(Sunday Night - Tuesday)
Increasing clouds and another chance of rain begins on Sunday night
as another strong trough digs into the four corners region. Models
are not sure how to handle the evolution of this trough this far out
which is no surprise. Current NWP guidance suggests a piece will
eject out and give our region a chance of rain early next week with
the main system holding back and not affecting the mid-Mississippi
Valley until after this forecast package.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2015
Low level moisture continues to work from the Plains into the
mid-Mississippi Valley early today, leading to the development of
fairly widespread stratus. The leading edge of this cloud deck is
between 4-5kft, but in the deeper moisture over western MO cigs
have dipped into the 2-3kft range. Expect these MVFR cigs to work
across the CWA during the morning...moving into the KCOU and KUIN
areas within the next 1-2 hours and into the STL metro TAF sites
by mid morning, with this timing primarily based on the RAP 925MB
RH prog. Expect 2-3kft cigs to hold in the warm sector for much
of the day as the storm system winds up over the Plains,
increasing south-southeast winds into the 20-30kt range during the
afternoon. As far as precip timing is concerned, have leaned
towards the HRRR runs in attempting to indicate elevated showers
developing ahead of the front during the afternoon, with the
possibility for the most intense convection being tied to late
afternoon/early evening fropa. This fropa should be tied to a
brief clearing in the low clouds, and winds increasing even
further as they swing around to the west. Wind gust of 30-40 kts
should be common across the area overnight tonight, with
additional low clouds in the 2500-4000 ft range sprialling back
into the area in the wake of surface low.
Specifics for KSTL: Bases of stratus deck should lower into the
2-3kft range by mid morning with these ceilings holding into the
afternoon as showers develop across the region, followed by a
brief shot of convection as strong cold front surges into the area
in the 00-02z time frame. South-southeast winds will increase
during the day as low pressure intensifies over the plains with
gusts to around 30kts this afternoon. Early evening fropa should
cause low clouds to briefly clear out, with a shift in the winds
to the southwest and west accompanied by a jump in wind speeds.
Wind gusts in excess of 30kts expected during the overnight
hours, with VFR clouds/bases 3-5kft.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 68 43 57 37 / 60 80 5 0
Quincy 66 42 55 34 / 80 80 5 0
Columbia 68 42 58 32 / 70 10 0 0
Jefferson City 69 43 58 34 / 70 10 0 0
Salem 67 46 56 35 / 50 90 5 0
Farmington 66 44 58 35 / 60 70 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Thursday FOR Audrain
MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1122 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR BEING
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIXTURE OF PRECIP INITIALLY
THAT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE WEST...AS NORTH WINDS
STRENGTHEN. REFER TO THE LATEST HEADLINES RELEASED FOR MORE
DETAILS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST A SNOW BAND WILL DEVELOP OVER GARDEN AND
DEUEL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE HIGH
TERRAIN ACROSS DEUEL COUNTY...A BLIZZARD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
THERE WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS GARDEN
COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
STRONG STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS UTAH...AND WILL EMERGE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO CENTRAL IOWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
IN ADDITION RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM SYSTEM. VERY STRONG LIFT WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH NAM MODEL INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION POSSIBLE ENHANCING PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL
RATES DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS IS A VERY QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM...SO NO ONE AREA EXPECTED TO SEE MORE THAN A SIX
HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. STRONG WINDS LINGER INTO THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA WHERE
STRONG WINDS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR A RAIN OR SNOW MIX ENDING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S...FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST MORNING LOWS TAPERING UPWARDS TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL.
THURSDAY CLEARING AND COOLER AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST.
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING IN THE WEST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND PEAKING SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
MONDAY THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER STRONGER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
AN AREA OF LIFR/IFR IN SBS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AFFECTING AREAS
MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM ROUGHLY 18Z ONWARD. VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FCST AREA FROM 03Z WEDNESDAY EVENING ONWARD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/
WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ056-058-069-070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST /5
PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ022-024>026-035>037-057-059-071.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ010-
027>029-038.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ010-027>029-038.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...TAYLOR
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1246 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING
RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME CLEARING OCCURRING
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE AREA... THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
8 PM UPDATE...
OVERALL FORCAST IN GOOD SHAPE. PER THE LATEST HRRR AND RADAR
TRENDS, I DID INCREASE AND HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS (NEAR 100%
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT A GRADUAL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
IS EXPECTED BUT RAIN DOES LINGER FOR QUITE AWHILE EAST OF I-81. I
ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG, WITH A FOCUS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE
1600 FEET. WITH CIGS FALLING OVERNIGHT AND RAIN, FOG SEEMS LIKE A
GOOD BET. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN COVERING MOST OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA IS MOSTLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SO FAR... EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF STEUBEN COUNTY WHERE UP TO 0.75 INCHES IS ESTIMATED.
OBSERVATIONS OVER STEUBEN COUNTY ARE NOT INDICATING ANY TOTALS
OVER HALF AN INCH.
WV SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR MOSAICS ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT
THE RAIN HAS BECOME SPOTTIER AND LIGHTER SOUTH OF I-80 IN
PENNSYLVANIA. DON`T EXPECT THIS DRY SLOT TO MAKE MUCH MORE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PA TONIGHT. STEADIEST RAINS THIS
EVENING WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA THROUGH CENTRAL NY WITH
SPOTTIER RAIN TO THE SOUTH... ALTHOUGH EVEN DOWN ALONG I-80 EXPECT
THAT THE RAIN WILL TEND TO FILL IN AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.
POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CATEGORICAL... ABOVE 80 PERCENT
FOR MOST OF THE AREA... EXCEPT AROUND 60-70 PERCENT FOR THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG I-80. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY 0.50 TO 1.00
INCHES WITH PWAT VALUES OF JUST OVER AN INCH BEING FORCED TO THE
NORTHWEST BY A 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE
TONIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST PA. SOME
CLEARING WILL PROBABLY OCCUR IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SPREADING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE MID-LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM WITH NY/PA IN
THE LEFT EXIT OF A STRONG UPPER JET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE STRONGER THAN WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM WITH
40 TO 45 KTS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER MOISTURE VALUES WILL
BE LESS WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTING TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH. VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLY ACCOMPANYING ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHWOERS ENDING BUT CLOUDS LINGERING IN WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY/PA LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC/SUPERBLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A POWERFUL UL LOW ROTATING ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED OVER NY/PA, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FALL AS RAIN, THOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MIX IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND IN THE
COOLER REGIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY SUNDAY, THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
HEIGHTS OVER NY/PA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
WARMER THAN NORMAL START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LOW PASSING OVER THE AREA ATTM AND TRIGGERING AN AREA OF MOD
RAIN...MAINLY AFFECTING BGM...WITH LGTR RAIN DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.
XPCT RAIN TO CONT TO SLOWLY PULL OUT WITH THE LOW...BUT LVG BHD
LWRD CIGS AND VSBYS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT. HIPRES BLDS IN ON WED
BUT WITH LGT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LL MOISTURE LEFT BHD SO ONLY A
SLOW IMPRMT IN CONDS XPCTD. MOST PLACE WILL SEE VFR OR MVFR HWVR.
TNGT...CLDS REMAIN WITH VFR AND MVFR DECKS IN WEAK CAA BHD THE
LOW.
.OUTLOOK...
THU... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL.
SUN...VFR
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM/DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
942 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
GUSTY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT IN THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY
WEAKER. SKIES HAVE ALSO STARTED CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINKING IS THAT THE CLEARING
WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH (ESP FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES) AS THE
RAP SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AT AND NORTH OF A WILMINGTON TO
DAYTON LINE. GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MAKES SENSE.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. 850 TEMPS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE FALL TO
AROUND -4 DEGREES C. GIVEN THESE 850 TEMPS AND 1000- 850
THICKNESSES HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN MOST PLACES. WENT
AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
CLOUDS ALSO LOOK TO MOVE BACK IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE SHORTWAVE.
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY TOMORROW AS THE LLJ REMAINS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 KTS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HERE AS THE NAM ONLY MIXES THE
SOUNDING TO ABOUT 800 MB WHERE THE GFS MIXES SOUNDING UP TO 750
MB. NOT SURPRISINGLY THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER WINDS GUSTS. FOR NOW
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE NAM AND AM EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
THIS WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PREV DISCUSSION->
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS PIVOTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO MOVE FURTHER FROM THE
AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ALTHOUGH ONLY
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER GOOD MIXING AND RELATED GUSTINESS IN THE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING. STILL MARGINALLY AROUND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. BUT READINGS
HAVE DROPPED SUFFICIENTLY ALREADY TO END THE ADVISORY EARLY
ELSEWHERE.
LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A MINOR
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MAY KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. FORECAST LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS SPREADING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING OUT /CLEARING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST/
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT DURING
THE DAY SO GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN ALTHOUGH PEAK WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THAT
POINT EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER.
WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE IN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY
HIGHS GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE FORECAST TEMPERATURES
DO NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM MOS RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM HOWEVER THERE CONTINUE TO BE
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING. WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
ECMWF WHICH IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING HOWEVER DID DECREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. CURRENT BORDERLINE
MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL SLOWLY START TO ERODE FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AS SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKING AT RH FIELDS FROM THE RAP AND GLOBAL MODELS MOST
SITES SHOULD GO VFR TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCMH/ KLCK.
THESE SITES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING LINE. DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW ALL TAF SITES SHOULD EVENTUALLY GO VFR AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A DRY
PASSAGE BUT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW. GFS
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME SITES POTENTIALLY MIXING TOWARDS 750 MB
WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE NEAR WHERE THEY WERE TODAY. THE
NAM ON THE OTHER HAND MIXES UP TO ~800/850 MB AND ALSO SHOWS NOT
AS STRONG OF GUSTS. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED TODAY WITH THE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER LLJ HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE NAM FOR TOMORROW. AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD A VFR DECK WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
621 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS PIVOTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO MOVE FURTHER FROM THE
AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ALTHOUGH ONLY
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER GOOD MIXING AND RELATED GUSTINESS IN THE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING. STILL MARGINALLY AROUND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. BUT READINGS
HAVE DROPPED SUFFICIENTLY ALREADY TO END THE ADVISORY EARLY
ELSEWHERE.
LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A MINOR
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MAY KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. FORECAST LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS SPREADING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING OUT /CLEARING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST/ FRIDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
TIGHT DURING THE DAY SO GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN ALTHOUGH PEAK
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THAT
POINT EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER.
WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE IN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY
HIGHS GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE FORECAST TEMPERATURES
DO NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM MOS RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM HOWEVER THERE CONTINUE TO BE
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING. WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
ECMWF WHICH IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING HOWEVER DID DECREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. CURRENT BORDERLINE
MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL SLOWLY START TO ERODE FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AS SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKING AT RH FIELDS FROM THE RAP AND GLOBAL MODELS MOST
SITES SHOULD GO VFR TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCMH/ KLCK.
THESE SITES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING LINE. DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW ALL TAF SITES SHOULD EVENTUALLY GO VFR AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A DRY
PASSAGE BUT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW. GFS
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME SITES POTENTIALLY MIXING TOWARDS 750 MB
WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE NEAR WHERE THEY WERE TODAY. THE
NAM ON THE OTHER HAND MIXES UP TO ~800/850 MB AND ALSO SHOWS NOT
AS STRONG OF GUSTS. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED TODAY WITH THE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER LLJ HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE NAM FOR TOMORROW. AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD A VFR DECK WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>045.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
110 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER
AIR REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEPT THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH TO QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEPARTED THE
CWA. RADAR CURRENTLY OVERSHOOTING THE LOW TOPPED ECHOES IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...SO STILL KEEP HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AREAS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO ADDED DRIZZLE...WHICH SHOULD LINGER
IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS PAST 06Z TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND
NAM ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PAINTING QPF...AND HAS IT
CONTINUING WELL INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD.
KEEP THE CLEARING ON THE SLOW SIDE GIVEN THE SLOW RETREAT OF THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE AT A MINIMUM
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE USED THIS AS JUSTIFICATION FOR
HIGHER CLOUD COVER AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...AND COULD SEE THE
TRI STATE AREA CLEAR BEFORE MORNING. SOME LATE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE HERE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EASE. RECENT LIGHT RAIN
ALSO HELPS THE CAUSE.
WITH BETTER INSOLATION IN THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES WILL IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG MID LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM THE MS
VALLEY...NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS ARE
IN DESCENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY IN THEIR QPF
FIELDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THE SREF LAGS THE NAM FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. PREFER THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.
MODELS SUGGEST STRONG H850 SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 40 TO 60 KNOTS ALONG
THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER FROM THE MIXING LAYER OF 26 TO 36 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...INCREASED WIND GUST IN THE 30S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
IN THE 20S LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO
STAY LIQUID.
THE NAM KEEPS MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE LOW LEVELS. SUSPECT
LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OR
MOVE EAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST LATE
THURSDAY.
DRY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
USED THE ALL CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FORESEEN FROM 24 HOURS AGO...IS TO BE
A BIT FASTER BY 3 TO 6 HOURS BRINGING THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ESE FRIDAY EVENING...IN THE LOW LEVEL COLD POOL FRIDAY
EVENING. LIKEWISE...WILL BE A FEW HOURS FASTER LIFTING OUT THAT COLD
POOL SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. STILL WILL LEAVE 20 TO 40
POPS OVER OUR NE COUNTIES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN SHIFTED A FEW HOURS EARLIER.
AGAIN A COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES NOT COLD ENOUGH ALOFT...AND MOISTURE NOT DEEP
ENOUGH...FOR GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE CLOUDS.
WILL STILL HAVE NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY EVENING OF 20 TO
30 MPH... WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850 MB FLOW STILL RUNNING
AROUND 40 KNOTS.
WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS FIGURED IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT... STILL WENT A BIT COLDER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT CWA.
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HAVE CLOUDS/MOISTURE INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN 12Z GFS INCREASING
POPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF... WITH A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WEDNESDAY THRU 06Z THURSDAY...
AT 06Z BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXTEND FROM
CMH-CRW-I16. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO ONLY SLOWLY ERODE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. AT 06Z...VFR CLR AT HTS...VFR SCT STRATOCU AT
CRW...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT PKB BKW CKB AND EKN. WITH WINDS NEAR
CALM AT HTS AM GOING WITH LIFR FOG 10-12Z.
BY 14Z VFR MOSTLY CLEAR AT HTS...CRW...BKW...PKB BUT MVFR HANGING
AT CKB AND EKN TIL. BY 18Z...VFR WITH JUST THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.
AFTER 00Z...A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO AFFECT. MID
CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE WEST...LOWERING TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY 06Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLEARING TO VFR MAY OCCUR FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 11/11/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1140 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.AVIATION...
GUSTY...CROSSWIND COMPONENT CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINAL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST
AND WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...GAG & WWR...MAY SEE VFR CEILINGS DEVELOP FOR
A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SITES NEAR RECENTLY PLOWED FIELDS MAY
ALSO SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH BLOWING DUST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015/
UPDATE...
LOWERED DEWPOINT AND RH VALUES FOR TODAY. EXPANDED RED FLAG
WARNING ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODIFIED POPS
SOUTHEAST.
DISCUSSION...
VERY DRY AIR IS FILTERING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND EXTENDING NOW INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS... IT APPEARS THAT HRRR AND RAP DEWPOINTS
ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SO HAVE MODIFIED THE DEWPOINTS TOWARD A
HRRR/RAP BLEND WHICH LOWERS DEWPOINTS IN MANY AREAS. WITH THIS
CHANGE... THE MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL APPROACH OR FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT EAST TO NEAR A HOLDENVILLE-ADA-ARDMORE-MARIETTA LINE SO
HAVE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING INTO THOSE AREAS. UPDATED
GRIDS... FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST AND RED FLAG WARNING ARE
OUT.
HAVE ALSO REMOVED OR MODIFIED POPS IN SOME AREAS BASED ON THE
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE PACIFIC FRONT AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
26.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION
AVIATION...
SOME BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF
OUR TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS WITH 25-30 KT WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 KNOTS, AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWEST BY 00Z. THE STRONG WINDS
COULD RESULT IN BLOWING DUST, REDUCING SFC VISIBILITIES AT OUR
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LOOSEN SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STAYING NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS AND LESS GUSTY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SFC/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
COLORADO ROCKIES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, PUSHING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AS THE WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT LATER ON
THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, AS WELL AS ALL OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH 30 TO 40 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS. DAYTIME HEATING/VERTICAL MIXING INTO THE WINDS
ALOFT MAY RESULT IN UP TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS. WITH RH VALUES
DECREASING 15 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WIND ADVISORY AREA, DANGEROUS WILD FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE
ANOTHER HAZARD ALONG WITH THE WIND, AS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
IN EFFECT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS WILL MAY ALSO
REDUCE VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST. WITH LIMITED TO NO
INSTABILITY, MOST OF OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM,
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, SEVERE TSRA WILL STAY WELL EAST
OF OUR AREA.
BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE U.S.
GREAT LAKES REGION, AS HIGH SFC PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND MUCH LIGHTER NORTH WINDS. COOLER AIR WILL BE
KEEPING OUR TEMPS MORE SEASONABLY NORMAL, WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
NIGHT TEMPS. NORTHERN OKLAHOMA COULD DROP TO FREEZING ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S LOWS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF OUR REGION.
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MAY BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR TSRA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 41 63 36 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 67 38 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 41 66 37 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 60 34 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 38 63 31 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 74 45 65 41 / 50 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-
011>013-015>042-044>046-050.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>031-033>040-
044.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1032 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE...
LOWERED DEWPOINT AND RH VALUES FOR TODAY. EXPANDED RED FLAG
WARNING ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODIFIED POPS
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY DRY AIR IS FILTERING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND EXTENDING NOW INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS... IT APPEARS THAT HRRR AND RAP DEWPOINTS
ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SO HAVE MODIFIED THE DEWPOINTS TOWARD A
HRRR/RAP BLEND WHICH LOWERS DEWPOINTS IN MANY AREAS. WITH THIS
CHANGE... THE MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL APPROACH OR FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT EAST TO NEAR A HOLDENVILLE-ADA-ARDMORE-MARIETTA LINE SO
HAVE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING INTO THOSE AREAS. UPDATED
GRIDS... FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST AND RED FLAG WARNING ARE
OUT.
HAVE ALSO REMOVED OR MODIFIED POPS IN SOME AREAS BASED ON THE
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE PACIFIC FRONT AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
.26.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION
AVIATION...
SOME BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF
OUR TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS WITH 25-30 KT WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 KNOTS, AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWEST BY 00Z. THE STRONG WINDS
COULD RESULT IN BLOWING DUST, REDUCING SFC VISIBILITIES AT OUR
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LOOSEN SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STAYING NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS AND LESS GUSTY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SFC/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
COLORADO ROCKIES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, PUSHING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AS THE WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT LATER ON
THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, AS WELL AS ALL OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH 30 TO 40 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS. DAYTIME HEATING/VERTICAL MIXING INTO THE WINDS
ALOFT MAY RESULT IN UP TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS. WITH RH VALUES
DECREASING 15 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WIND ADVISORY AREA, DANGEROUS WILD FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE
ANOTHER HAZARD ALONG WITH THE WIND, AS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
IN EFFECT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS WILL MAY ALSO
REDUCE VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST. WITH LIMITED TO NO
INSTABILITY, MOST OF OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM,
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, SEVERE TSRA WILL STAY WELL EAST
OF OUR AREA.
BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE U.S.
GREAT LAKES REGION, AS HIGH SFC PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND MUCH LIGHTER NORTH WINDS. COOLER AIR WILL BE
KEEPING OUR TEMPS MORE SEASONABLY NORMAL, WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
NIGHT TEMPS. NORTHERN OKLAHOMA COULD DROP TO FREEZING ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S LOWS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF OUR REGION.
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MAY BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR TSRA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 41 63 36 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 67 38 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 41 66 37 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 60 34 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 38 63 31 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 74 45 65 41 / 50 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-
011>013-015>042-044>046-050.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>031-033>040-
044.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085.
&&
$$
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1132 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE...
WE NUDGED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT IN SOUTHEAST WI FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BEFORE THE CLOUDS MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THEIR WAY UP...
INDICATING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE CAN EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
TO FILL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THIS.
LOWERED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST MESO MODELS AND SKY
CONDITIONS. ONE UNCERTAINTY IS THE SHOWERS THEY TRY TO PRODUCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST WI. THESE WOULD
BE DUE TO THE IMPRESSIVE UVV AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET.
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWING
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING... ALTHOUGH THE 16Z HRRR BRINGS IT
THROUGH THE AREA 1 TO 2 HOURS LATER THAN THE NAM... WRF AND RAP
MODELS.
SPC EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER JUST A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH WITH THEIR 1030 AM UPDATE. WE ARE LOOKING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THE FRONT SLIDES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT IN
SOUTHERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING. THE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN ANY STRONG CELLS. THE
TRIPLE POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THUS THE BETTER INSTABILITY/
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER THE ENHANCED RISK AREA.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
A VERY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. LOOK FOR RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL ALSO STEADILY INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST THEN WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. 50 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED JUST ABOVE
2000 FEET THIS EVENING. THIS IS NOT WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CRITERIA... BUT IT IS CLOSE.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO KMSN BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT HOLD OFF FOR
THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FROM ABOUT 5 PM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF THIS BAND... AS HRRR MODEL IS MOVING
ITTHROUGH SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS. EXPECT MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. VERY
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. WE
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING AS A DRY SLOT ROLLS THROUGH.
BUT...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW.
VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY INTACT. THE DYNAMICS/FORCING REMAIN
OBVIOUS. IT HAS SLOWED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A VERY
INTENSE CLOSED AND NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SLAM IN HERE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AN IMPRESSIVE LEFT
FRONT QUAD OF AN UPPER JET WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OF 50-60KTS PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE UVV VALUES. THE SFC LOW
WILL BE OCCLUDING BY THE TIME IT PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
THE SPC HAS PUT OUR FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES INTO A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS WOULD BE A SHORT WINDOW FROM ABOUT 5 PM
THROUGH 8-9 PM THIS EVENING. CLEARLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS IOWA INTO ILLINOIS. THE WIND FIELD THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH IS VERY STRONG...SO IT
WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO BRING A FEW
SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER ABOUT
3 PM THIS AFTERNOON...THE SOUTHEAST COULD STAY DRY UNTIL EVENING.
THEN LOOK FOR A RAPIDLY MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ROLL
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVIER PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY LAST
ABOUT 3-4 HOURS. WE SHOULD GET A DECENT DRY SLOT DURING THE EVENING
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT LIGHTER SHOWERS
SHOULD FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRETTY GUSTY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW. THESE
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH. THOSE WINDS THEN PICK UP QUICKLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
GIVEN THE DELAY IN THE PRECIP...TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MAYBE EVEN A 60 OR
TWO IN THE FAR SOUTH. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FLOWING BACK IN TONIGHT
AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE RIGHT OVER WISCONSIN DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...MOVING TO JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON BY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY. EXPECTING MORNING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DRAWS NEAR.
KEPT WINDY FORECAST GOING FOR THURSDAY...LEAVING THE WIND ADVISORY
AS IS. FORECAST WINDS GENERALLY FALL BETWEEN LOWER NAM AND HIGHER
GFS VALUES. IT WILL BE CLOUDY...SO CERTAINLY SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
MIXING POTENTIAL. GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS AND COLD ADVECTION
THOUGH...SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AND/OR GUSTS TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA MOST PLACES.
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH. SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION
TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE
AREA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...THOUGH A FEW PLACES
COULD GET A DUSTING IN GRASSY AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA.
925 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -1 TO 1 C RANGE FRIDAY...SO A CHILLY
DAY ANTICIPATED. LINGERING BREEZY WINDS AND CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MORNING WILL CERTAINLY ADD TO THE COOL FALL
CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS BY SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS BRINGS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY...MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT SOME LOW POPS
PER THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS THEN BRINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN
PLACE...WITH MILDER TEMPS CONTINUING. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST
SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY...DESPITE THE DIFFERENT SETUPS. NOT A TON
OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY WEEK FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VERY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL ALSO
STEADILY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...SHIFTING TO
SOUTHWEST THEN WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO
KMSN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT HOLD OFF FOR THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
ROLL ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABOUT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 9 PM
THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING AS A
DRY SLOT ROLLS THROUGH. BUT...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS SHOULD
RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW.
MARINE...A DANGEROUS AND POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL APPROACH TODAY...MOVING OVER THE GREEN BAY AREA BY
AROUND SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. LOOK FOR STEADILY INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT NOON TODAY.
A GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON AT 6 PM
THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST GALES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THEN WESTERLY GALES WILL RETURN QUICKLY TO THE ENTIRE
NEARSHORE AREA...INCLUDING NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON...BY MID MORNING
ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ056-062>072.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
052-057>060.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
458 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT FLOW
ARRIVING/CONVERGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVES OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH IMPRESSIVE JET ENERGY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTS BEFORE RIDGING UP THROUGH
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS FLOW THEN DIPS INTO LONGWAVE TROUGHING
THAT COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW (VERY EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY) IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/TN VALLEY. THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UNDER
AN EXPANSIVE BUT WEAK REGION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE BAHAMAS...AND EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CAN BE SEEN IN THE 13/00Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE WITH A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 700MB. THE
COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY ABOVE THIS INVERSION (AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED)...AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT SAT OVER THE PENINSULA FOR
THURSDAY IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN GA. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS (INCLUDING A
NOTICEABLE THERMAL/MOISTURE RIDGE JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY) AND
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS...THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF CROSS CITY...AND THEN EXTENDING OUT INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH HEALTHY IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN TERMS
OF FGEN...IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND HENCE WILL MAKE ITS
PASSAGE THROUGH MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHOUT ANY CHANCE OF
RAIN. BETTER RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 700MB PER MOST GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES SHOULD PROVIDE THE
ARRIVING FRONTAL FOCUS A BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SUPPORT A FEW WDLY
SCT SHOWERS LATER TODAY. MORE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
TODAY...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MARCH SOUTHWARD TODAY...PASSING
THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN SLOWING UP FURTHER
AS IT APPROACHES OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND FORT MYERS. FOR
MUCH OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH OUR REGION...THERE WILL SIMPLY
NOT BE ENOUGH AVAILABLE COLUMN MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUR ANY
RAIN...DESPITE DECENT LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FOCUS. THEREFORE...THE
FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS. CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS
SHOW A SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH LATER TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH EFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW WDLY SCT SHOWERS TO GET
GOING. WDLY SCT IS THE IMPORTANT WORD. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT JUST A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS...NOT A WASHOUT OF AN AFTERNOON BY ANY MEANS.
HAVE INCLUDED A 20-30% POP FOR CHARLOTTE/LEE...AND SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DESPITE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT PROVIDES
EXCELLENT DIURNAL MIXING CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 70S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FURTHER SOUTH.
TONIGHT...
SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION ON NORTHEAST
FLOW. WILL CERTAINLY FEEL COOLER FOR MANY SPOTS THAN WHAT WE ARE
USED TO SO FAR THIS FALL...BUT OVERALL WILL NOT BE UNSEASONABLE.
A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE FAR NORTH (LEVY COUNTY) MAY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S BY DAWN SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN
RANGING FURTHER SOUTH TO AROUND 60 FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND
MID/UPPER 60S DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS VICINITY. ANY EARLY EVENING
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND FORT MYERS LEAVING THE
OVERNIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
SATURDAY...
A PLEASANT FALL DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. IT WILL TAKE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TO GET OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN TO WHERE
THEY SHOULD BE FOR MID NOVEMBER...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR
FORECAST HIGHS. THE I4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD SHOULD HOLD IN THE
70S...ALTHOUGH PINELLAS/HILLSBOROUGH/POLK COUNTIES ARE LIKELY TO
BE IN THE UPPER 70S. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE TEMPS NEAR 80. WILL CALL IT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND TO FILTER THE SUN. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
HIGH CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES COULD END UP A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS. A PLEASANT
DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A NEAR ZERO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT RIGHT INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
COUNTRY BY THE END OF TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
FLORIDA. THE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST
COAST TO END THE WEEKEND WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MID-
WEEK...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST AND
THEREFORE BRINGING A RETURN OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL NOTED
WITHIN THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE GFS AS FAR AS BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOWARD OUR AREA SO FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHES OF MVFR FOG STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH 13Z...ESPECIALLY FOR KLAL. AFTER 13-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY SHIFTING WIND TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY THIS EVENING FOR A
WHILE FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS SUCH AS KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE
NORTH. THIS FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND INCREASE BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST WATERS. THEREAFTER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
WITH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK THROUGH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY. A SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF
VISIT TO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN DURING SUNDAY AND
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BOTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
REACH 35% AROUND LEVY COUNTY...BUT LOW ERC VALUES WILL PREVENT
ANY POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. DISPERSION INDICES WILL
BE HIGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
FOG POTENTIAL... PATCHY FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. AFTER THE PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN AGAIN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 83 61 78 62 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 86 68 81 67 / 30 10 10 10
GIF 84 60 77 61 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 83 64 79 65 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 82 54 76 55 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 83 63 78 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
240 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
.UPDATE...
720 PM CST
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW CENTERED NORTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY RAP ANALYSIS AND 00Z DVN RAOB...AS WELL
AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DROPPING 5-8 DEGREES IN DEW POINTS. THIS
MINI-SURGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A CORRIDOR OF
BRIEF 40-45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA...HAVING JUST PAST HERE IN
ROMEOVILLE. OUTSIDE OF THIS TEMPORARY SPIKE THOUGH...WIND SPEEDS
IN GENERAL WILL SLOWLY EASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH HANG IN THE SAME
PLACE TONIGHT...UNDULATING A LITTLE SOUTH/NORTH...BUT ALL IN ALL
FROM ROCKFORD THROUGH CHICAGO AND VALPARAISO NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BASICALLY JUST DROP ON ADVECTION...EASING INTO
THE MID 30S BY LATE TONIGHT.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA. MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...INCLUDING JET
INDUCED DIV...DPVA...AND WAA WILL MOVE OUT AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA BUT ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE COMBINATION OF
THE CLEARING SKIES AND CAA THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S...PERHAPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN SOME
SPOTS.
TOMORROW...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
ONE LAST PUSH OF ENERGY FROM THE VERY DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AS IT FINALLY DEPARTS THE REGION. OTHER THAN THE SHORTWAVE IN THE
MORNING...WE AGAIN LACK MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME REMNANT MOISTURE LEFT TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA WHICH WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY 00Z SAT THE MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION AND THE SKIES WILL CLEAR.
BSH
&&
.LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET THROUGH MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FROM NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION...TRANSLATES THROUGH THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP WITH RADIATIVE COOLING...LEADING
TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S SATURDAY MORNING. A DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BUILD IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD BECOME OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO EJECT A DIVERGENT FLOW REGIME AT THE 250
MB LEVEL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND RIDE THE DIVERGENT FLOW NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS...STARTING MONDAY
MORNING. THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE CHICAGO LAND AREA...LEADING TO MORE
LIKELY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE BROAD MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE REGION. PUT IN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BUILD DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS APPEAR TO
DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT AT THIS TIME AS THE
ECMWF MODEL IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH MOST UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES REACHING NEAR 200 J/KG.
HOWEVER... THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE BOTH MUCH LESS THAN
THAT...WITH VALUES NEAR 50 J/KG. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...KEPT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WITH
850 MB WIND VELOCITIES OF OVER 60 KTS...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS.
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WILL REDUCE TO JUST CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.
27
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY WINDS TO 35KT THRU EARLY AFTERNOON FROM 280-300 DEGREE
DIRECTION.
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AROUND DAYBREAK
OR SHORTLY BEFORE THROUGH MIDDAY.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS WISCONSIN
SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND MAY APPROACH FAR NORTHERN IL AROUND 9Z THIS
MORNING. CIGS HAVE MAINLY HELD AROUND 4KFT AGL AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT POCKET OF LOWER CLOUDS APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND MAY PUSH CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 2500-3000FT AGL AFT 9Z
THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS HAVE CONTINUED EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS HAS BEGUN TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE HIGHEST
GUSTS TO RANGE BETWEEN 28-35KT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
LATER TODAY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT NEARLY SCOURING ALL CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS TIMING AND DURATION.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...SHRA LIKELY/CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
231 AM CST
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TODAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GALES BETWEEN 40-45KT. HAVE
OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND BRING DOWN THE STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE...CURRENT GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WE MAY
SEE A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS BETWEEN 46-50KT LATER THIS MORNING.
BUT THE FREQUENCY WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED...BUT GALES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY
SLIDING INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH THE GRADIENT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
CLOSER TO SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER GALES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FALLING TO LESS THAN 30KT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST THEN FURTHER DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTLY AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RETURNS SUNDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WITH THE LONGER FETCH
EXPECTED TO SETUP.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3
PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 9 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1212 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
.UPDATE...
720 PM CST
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW CENTERED NORTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY RAP ANALYSIS AND 00Z DVN RAOB...AS WELL
AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DROPPING 5-8 DEGREES IN DEW POINTS. THIS
MINI-SURGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A CORRIDOR OF
BRIEF 40-45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA...HAVING JUST PAST HERE IN
ROMEOVILLE. OUTSIDE OF THIS TEMPORARY SPIKE THOUGH...WIND SPEEDS
IN GENERAL WILL SLOWLY EASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH HANG IN THE SAME
PLACE TONIGHT...UNDULATING A LITTLE SOUTH/NORTH...BUT ALL IN ALL
FROM ROCKFORD THROUGH CHICAGO AND VALPARAISO NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BASICALLY JUST DROP ON ADVECTION...EASING INTO
THE MID 30S BY LATE TONIGHT.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA. MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...INCLUDING JET
INDUCED DIV...DPVA...AND WAA WILL MOVE OUT AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA BUT ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE COMBINATION OF
THE CLEARING SKIES AND CAA THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S...PERHAPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN SOME
SPOTS.
TOMORROW...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
ONE LAST PUSH OF ENERGY FROM THE VERY DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AS IT FINALLY DEPARTS THE REGION. OTHER THAN THE SHORTWAVE IN THE
MORNING...WE AGAIN LACK MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME REMNANT MOISTURE LEFT TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA WHICH WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY 00Z SAT THE MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION AND THE SKIES WILL CLEAR.
BSH
&&
.LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET THROUGH MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FROM NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION...TRANSLATES THROUGH THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP WITH RADIATIVE COOLING...LEADING
TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S SATURDAY MORNING. A DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BUILD IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD BECOME OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO EJECT A DIVERGENT FLOW REGIME AT THE 250
MB LEVEL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND RIDE THE DIVERGENT FLOW NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS...STARTING MONDAY
MORNING. THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE CHICAGO LAND AREA...LEADING TO MORE
LIKELY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE BROAD MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE REGION. PUT IN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BUILD DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS APPEAR TO
DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT AT THIS TIME AS THE
ECMWF MODEL IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH MOST UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES REACHING NEAR 200 J/KG.
HOWEVER... THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE BOTH MUCH LESS THAN
THAT...WITH VALUES NEAR 50 J/KG. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...KEPT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WITH
850 MB WIND VELOCITIES OF OVER 60 KTS...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS.
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WILL REDUCE TO JUST CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.
27
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY WINDS TO 35KT THRU EARLY AFTERNOON FROM 280-300 DEGREE
DIRECTION.
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AROUND DAYBREAK
OR SHORTLY BEFORE THROUGH MIDDAY.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS WISCONSIN
SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND MAY APPROACH FAR NORTHERN IL AROUND 9Z THIS
MORNING. CIGS HAVE MAINLY HELD AROUND 4KFT AGL AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT POCKET OF LOWER CLOUDS APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND MAY PUSH CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 2500-3000FT AGL AFT 9Z
THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS HAVE CONTINUED EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS HAS BEGUN TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE HIGHEST
GUSTS TO RANGE BETWEEN 28-35KT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
LATER TODAY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT NEARLY SCOURING ALL CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS TIMING AND DURATION.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...SHRA LIKELY/CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE STORM WARNING IN PLACE UNTIL 15Z FRI. WE
WILL LIKELY NOT MEET CRITERIA OVERNIGHT...BUT DO HAVE CONCERN THAT
WE WILL BRIEFLY PUSH BACK UP TO STORM WARNING LEVELS ON FRIDAY
MORNING AS A STOUT SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GALE WARNING CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET ACROSS THE LAKE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AROUND SUNRISE...THE RAIN WILL SWITCH TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND PUSH
SOUTH COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN/IF THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN...BUT
BY 12Z...ALL BUT THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING.
BSH
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...STORM WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3
PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
328 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
WARMER AIR NOTED MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AS PRECIPITATION DRAGGED IT TO THE GROUND. AT PORTLAND WE REACHED
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY (53 DEGREES). THE
OCCLUSION HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW DROPPING SLOWLY UNDER BROKEN CLOUD COVER.
THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND HAVE USED IT FOR
NEAR/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL
LIFT NORTH AND/OR FALL APART AS IT TRACKS EAST FOR THE MOST PART.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING. DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE NEAR AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND WHERE
CEILINGS ARE STILL EXTREMELY LOW. RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN THE BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS. AS WEST WINDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT...BUT STILL EXPECTING
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY MORE SHOWERS AREAWIDE AS UPPER
LEVEL AXIS SWINGS THROUGH LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WE WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WHITES
TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE
MAIN VORTICITY LOBE/700MB AXIS PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT SPARKING
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LAGGING THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
TIMING WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT OVER COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
BREEZY WSW FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSES BY IN SW FLOW ALOFT. AGAIN THERE WILL
BE THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHEARING BY TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY BUT NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOOKING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S. WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPS ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL HOLD
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WEAK OVER-RUNNING PATTERN SETTING UP
TO THE WEST WILL PUSH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST ON
TUESDAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO MONDAY.
LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS OVER THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S TO NEAR
40.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN PUMPING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. OVER-RUNNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DROP HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
INTO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE NORTH BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR
60. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS OFFSHORE.
DEEP SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT MODELS
DIVERGING AT THIS POINT AND BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN
MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIND DIRECTION VARIES AT 08Z THIS MORNING...BUT
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WNW ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN.
CEILINGS ARE ALREADY IMPROVING FOR MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY BR AND
DRIZZLE IS MOST LIKELY AROUND KAUG AND KRKD...BUT BR MAY DEVELOP
ANYWHERE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS MORNING.
-SHRA WILL CONTINUE OVER KHIE AND VICINITY OF KLEB THROUGH THE
DAY. LATER TONIGHT -RA AND -SN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL
TERMINALS BUT MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE -SHSN MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION.
LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT ALSO HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WIND GUSTS WILL
BE BORDERLINE AND OVER THE VERY OUTER WATERS. WILL LET THE NEXT
SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK BEFORE EITHER EXTENDING THE SCA OR
ISSUING GALE WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE BAYS WILL LIKELY
SEE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1221 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH FAIR BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BEGINNING SATURDAY AND THEN
REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW
WARMING TREND EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AFTER A COOL WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR IS MIXED TO THE SURFACE ALONG
THE COAST. AT PORTLAND WE REACHED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
ENTIRE DAY (53 DEGREES). EXPECT THIS WARMING TO OCCUR WHERE RAIN
IS DRAGGING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES DOWN...IT WILL BE BRIEF AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START FALLING AGAIN SHORTLY. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION WITH MOST OF IT IN EASTERN MAINE BY 3
AM AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL
LIFT NORTH FOR THE MOST PART. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MORNING. DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
LIKELY IN THE TRANSITION TO A DIFFERENT AIRMASS LATER THIS
MORNING.
&&
10PM UPDATE...
LAST MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE NOW AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MAINE BEFORE ENDING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MATCH
CURRENT THINKING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
530PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRIMARILY TO ADJUST HOURLY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. MORE FOCUSED AREA OF PERSISTENT RAIN IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE FRONT IS NOW VISIBLE ON REGIONAL RADAR
AS A LINE OF ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY IN WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THIS
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE BETWEEN 9 PM
AND MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING A LITTLE DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MULTI-VORTEX 500 MB TROUGH TO SHIFT OUT OF GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY THIS LOW SHOWS A WEAKENING CENTER MOVING TO OUR N AND W
WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE SURFACE OCCLUSION
THRU OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS WIND DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND FOG AND DRIZZLE CLEAR OUT IN THE PRE-DAWN AS SW
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. QPF LOOKS
UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH MOST PLACES COMING IN AT TWO OR THREE TENTHS
OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE MUCH...OR
INCREASE SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH...TONIGHT. GENERALLY
IN THE 40S...BUT POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO NEAR 50 IN SOUTHERN NH AND
ON THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BREEZY WSW FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS ONE UPPER
LOW TO OUR N WEAKENS AND ANOTHER DEEPENS TO OUR W. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GET UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. COOLING AIR ALOFT COULD CHANGE
SOME RAIN TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THE
DOWNSLOPE SHOULD BRING SOME SUN TO THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
MORNING...BUT THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDS BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MILD...AS
MID LEVEL AIR STAYS MILD UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...WITH MAXES IN
THE 50S.
THE SECOND BATCH OF ENERGY AND DEEPENING CLOSED 500MB LOW TRACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL DRAG A SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND SHIFTS TO NW BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW HANGING BACK...SHOULD SEE
DECENT CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MOST PLACES ON THE VALLEY FLOORS WILL SEE LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS...PROBABLY LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS AND NOTCHES COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 IN THE N...TO
AROUND 40 IN THE S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES EXITS TO THE EAST
SATURDAY BUT IN ITS WAKE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY. ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ALLOW FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. WITH TIME
THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST BRINGING A WARMER RETURN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. DRY WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER THIS LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AT SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL RETURN ABOVE NORMAL EARLY TO MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR LINGER THRU THE EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SHIFTS THE WINDS TO WSW AND SHOULD SEE A QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR..AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY MORNING. KHIE MAY BE STUCK WITH MVFR
CEILINGS THRU A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY IN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. WINDS
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED AT TIMES ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THRU...BUT
MOST LIKELY WILL BE IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
BY LATE SATURDAY THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
COME TO AN END WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPANDED SCA THRU FRIDAY EVENING...AT LEAST AS WINDS
BEHIND A FRONT SHIFT TO W-SW LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST AROUND SCA
LEVELS. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH...IN THE 5-9 FT
RANGE...INITIALLY IN SWELL THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MAY COME DOWN A
BIT AS THE WIND KNOCKS THEM DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SCA`S WILL BE NEEDED AGAIN SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY GALES AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH
BY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
952 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS TEMPERATURES
GET COLDER...A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND
MILDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR TERM FORECAST
AS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUES DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND LATEST GUIDANCE STILL KEEPS
MAGNITUDES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREV DISC...987MB SURFACE WAS LOW SPINNING OVER LOWER QUEBEC. RATHER
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WIND
GUSTS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 25-35KTS TO AROUND 50KTS ACROSS
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. AS THIS TREND IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY. WE WILL KEEP GUSTS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UP TO A COUPLE OF
REPORTS. WE WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. THE
NEXT CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS WERE
IMPACTING THE TUG HILL PLATEAU EXTENDING INTO THE ADIRONDACKS.
ANOTHER BAND WAS ATTEMPTING TO INFILTRATE FURTHER INLAND FROM LAKE
ERIE. PER THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH A FASTER TRACK OF THE LOWER
QUEBEC LOW AND ANOTHER PV ANOMALY TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
TO BACK A LITTLE THIS MORNING AND LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING WAVE WILL
ASSIST WITH FURTHER COLD ADVECTION AS H850 TEMPS DROP EVEN FURTHER
BY 1-3C. AS SEEN IN THE HRRR REFLECTIVITIES...THE LAKE ERIE BAND
MAY GET MORE OF A BOOST WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND BRING
SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION LATER THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...WE WILL
INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING ALONG THE I 90 CORRIDOR. THEN AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE FOR MORE SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
MIX WITH SLEET/GRAUPEL IF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS ARE DEEP ENOUGH.
THIS COULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE THIS EVENING AS THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT AND TRACKING OF THE UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
ISALLOBARIC COUPLET MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH THOSE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE QG FORCING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL FURTHER
WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS A RA/SN MIX WITH SOME SLEET/GRAUPEL. MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED INTO THE ADIRONDACKS WERE UP TO
A COUPLE OF INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE BANDS SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY TO 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TONIGHT LOWS DIP BACK
THROUGH THE 20S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO THE LOW-MID 30S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30F ACROSS THE
TERRAIN WITH 30S AND 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. TONIGHT THOSE
VALUES DIP FURTHER WITH TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO AROUND
30 FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SPLIT IN HALF WITH THE FIRST HALF RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH BRISK CONDITIONS AND RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN AND WEST OF ALBANY...THEN THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SO THE TREND WILL BE INCREASING BREAKS OF THE CLOUDS AND
SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS. MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR AN INCREASING
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTH PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AS WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM INCREASES. THIS COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF CLOUD COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I90...AS WE WILL PLACE PTCLOUDY CONDITIONS INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MAINLY
20S FOR THE REGION. THEN A SLOW REBOUND INTO THE TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE 0C.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE QUIET WEATHER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED CLOSE TO THE REGION...AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND STRENGTHEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE CUTOFF
LOW THAT WILL DEEPEN AND LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US.
AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE TREND TO BEING ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SKY COVER WILL BEGIN PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT MORE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE WEEK.
LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS...WITH
HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S. TOWARDS
MIDWEEK...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
EVENTUALLY...THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE US WILL WEAKEN
AND LIFT OF TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE
STORM/S TRAILING COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS STILL AREN/T CLEAR IN THE
EXACT TIMING OF WHETHER IT WILL OCCUR THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. FOR
NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS BEGINNING WITH WED NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO JUST
A FEW HOUR PERIOD WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME ON
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z SATURDAY.
BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME
ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS...WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT THROUGH THE DAY. THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS VFR.
SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY TAF SITES. STILL...WILL INCLUDE A VCSH FOR KGFL IN CASE A
SHOWER GETS CLOSE /MAINLY FOR THIS MORNING/ BUT ANY IMPACT DUE TO
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED...DUE TO LIGHT INTENSITY OF PRECIP AND
BRIEF NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...WILL NOT INCLUDE A
VCSH...AS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND/OR FAR ENOUGH
AWAY TO HAVE ANY IMPACT.
SOME OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY FINALLY BREAK TO CLEAR OUT BY LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT BKN MID OR
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THESE
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED WIND IN PLACE AND DRY LOW
LEVELS...WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FOR TONIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF GOOD DAYTIME MIXING AND A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESP DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10-20 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS POSSIBLE...ESP FOR
KALB...WHERE AIR WILL BE FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DESPITE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 25-45 MPH.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL QPF IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE HSA...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN
DACKS...AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH MAY OCCUR. MUCH OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL
BE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES INTO THE ADIRONDACKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IRL/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
718 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. INCREASED
POPS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS
THESE ARE ALREADY SEEING SUSTAINED UPSLOPE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARMER AIR NOTED MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AS PRECIPITATION DRAGGED IT TO THE GROUND. AT PORTLAND WE REACHED
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY (53 DEGREES). THE
OCCLUSION HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW DROPPING SLOWLY UNDER BROKEN CLOUD COVER.
THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND HAVE USED IT FOR
NEAR/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL
LIFT NORTH AND/OR FALL APART AS IT TRACKS EAST FOR THE MOST PART.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING. DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE NEAR AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND WHERE
CEILINGS ARE STILL EXTREMELY LOW. RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN THE BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS. AS WEST WINDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT...BUT STILL EXPECTING
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY MORE SHOWERS AREAWIDE AS UPPER
LEVEL AXIS SWINGS THROUGH LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WE WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WHITES
TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE
MAIN VORTICITY LOBE/700MB AXIS PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT SPARKING
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LAGGING THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
TIMING WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT OVER COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
BREEZY WSW FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSES BY IN SW FLOW ALOFT. AGAIN THERE WILL
BE THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHEARING BY TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY BUT NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOOKING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S. WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPS ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL HOLD
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WEAK OVER-RUNNING PATTERN SETTING UP
TO THE WEST WILL PUSH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST ON
TUESDAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO MONDAY.
LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS OVER THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S TO NEAR
40.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN PUMPING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. OVER-RUNNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DROP HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
INTO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE NORTH BY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR
60. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS OFFSHORE.
DEEP SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT MODELS
DIVERGING AT THIS POINT AND BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN
MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIND DIRECTION VARIES AT 08Z THIS MORNING...BUT
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WNW ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN.
CEILINGS ARE ALREADY IMPROVING FOR MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY BR AND
DRIZZLE IS MOST LIKELY AROUND KAUG AND KRKD...BUT BR MAY DEVELOP
ANYWHERE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS MORNING.
-SHRA WILL CONTINUE OVER KHIE AND VICINITY OF KLEB THROUGH THE
DAY. LATER TONIGHT -RA AND -SN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL
TERMINALS BUT MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE -SHSN MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION.
LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT ALSO HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WIND GUSTS WILL
BE BORDERLINE AND OVER THE VERY OUTER WATERS. WILL LET THE NEXT
SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK BEFORE EITHER EXTENDING THE SCA OR
ISSUING GALE WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE BAYS WILL LIKELY
SEE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
542 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
THE POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH OUR REGION
OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS HAS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...WITH THE SIZE OF THIS SYSTEM BEING SO LARGE...THE
WEATHER IN THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY THIS
SYSTEM. A LOOK AT EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AND EXTENDING AS FAR AS
MINNESOTA. THIS WILL BE A RATHER QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...AS WE WORK THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM OUT AND BRING IN A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...AND THE BEGINNING OF THE WARMING TREND FOR
THIS WEEKEND.
WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS ONGOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH
EXTREME NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WAS MOSTLY
PLAGUED BY STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW SPITS OF SNOW
FLAKES. NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES TO A DUSTING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS IN THIS PART OF WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. FARTHER WEST...THE CLEARING LINE EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST
OF MILLE LACS LAKE THROUGH THE EASTERN TWIN CITIES METRO TOWARD
RED WING...WITH AREAS WEST OF THIS LINE SEEING CLEAR SKIES. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SLIPS SOUTHEAST TODAY...WE MAY
SEE THE CLOUDS COME BACK OVER THE METRO FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
MID MORNING...BUT WE EXPECT A PROGRESSION TO CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
THEREAFTER. WITH THIS STALLING OF THE CLEARING LINE...PARTS OF
WESTERN WI WILL LIKELY NOT SEE SKIES CLEAR UNTIL THE EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MO WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THIS TIME...THE RIDGE AXIS IS IN THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS...SO WE STILL HAVE AT LEAST A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT /WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY THROUGH/...SO WE WILL SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS 0F 10-15 MPH UNTIL THAT RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES. WITH
THIS PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW TO LAST A DECENT PORTION OF THE
DAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE HELD IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
REGION.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO
OUR EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STILL FALL INTO THE LOW
30S AND UPPER 20S THOUGH BECAUSE THE CLEARING SKIES PAIRED WITH
LOW DEW POINTS AND THE LENGTH OF DARKNESS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT EFFICIENTLY. THIS MEANS THE
INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN IMPRESSIVELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
925MB TEMPS SURGE TO +10C IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A WARM DAY TOMORROW ONCE THE INVERSION MIXES OUT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR TO THE
SERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE H5 RIDGING GLIDES ATOP THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOCLR SKIES AND S-SW FLOW...PRODUCING
QUITE THE PLEASANT WEEKEND FOR MID-NOVEMBER. HIGHS WILL EASILY
CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND POTENTIALLY HIT THE LWR 60S IN FAR WRN MN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
QUICKLY GOING INTO MONDAY WHILE THE E COAST SFC HIGH MOVES INTO
THE ATLC. THIS COMBINATION WILL BE THE START OF A RATHER UNSETTLED
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. FIRST...A MIDLVL LOW PRES DISTURBANCE WILL
SHIFT NEWD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWFA MON INTO MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
DEEP LONGWAVE TROF MOVING ONSHORE THE W COAST LATE SUN THRU MON.
THIS TROF WILL THEN GRADUALLY CROSS THE ROCKIES MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...BECOMING A DEEP LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH
WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN FOR THE CWFA TUE THRU
THU. TOO EARLY TO LATCH ONTO WHICH ONE 6- OR 12- HOUR PERIOD WOULD
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT MUCH OF MON NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT WILL HAVE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR VARYING PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. IN
ADDITION...AFTER THE WARM WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
GO ON A COOLING TREND AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...POTENTIALLY
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN SITES WILL REMAIN IN CLEAR SKIES
TODAY...WHILE EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI WILL DEAL WITH SLOWLY
DEPARTING STRATUS THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM THE STORM THAT HAD IMPACTED OUR
REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE HRRR INSISTS ON PUSHING THE CLOUD
EDGE BACK ABOUT 30 MILES BRIEFLY MID MORNING...BEFORE FINALLY
DEPARTING EAST. FROM THERE ON...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN FOR
THE TAF PERIOD...AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
WORKS THROUGH
KMSP...NO CHANGE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION. MAY SEE A BKN DECK MID
MORNING PUSH IN FROM THE EAST BRIEFLY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND SW AT 10G15KT.
SUN...VFR. WIND. S AT 10G15KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-DZ POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G25KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
732 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER STEADY OR EVEN FALLING
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY NIGHTFALL. A BETTER CHANCE FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE WEST WIND WILL BE GUSTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOL AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDS EATEN UP BY THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO THE SE OF UNV.
HOWEVER...THICKER STRATUS MOVING IN NOW. SOME OF THAT SHIELD
SHOULD SURVIVE DEEPER INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY...ESP WHEN THE BIG PUSH
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS DOWN LATER THIS AFTN. WINDS STILL
GUSTING INTO THE 20S AREA WIDE. AOO WITH THE GAP WIND AND UNV ARE
STILL INTO THE 30S AT TIMES. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE GOING
FCST. SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TIMING OF CHANGE TO SNOW WITH AN EYE
TOWARD HRRR P-TYPE.
PREV...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ON RADAR...BUT MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA DUE TO THE WESTERLY FETCH. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN CHECK BY THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WELL-MIXED BLYR.
SOME BREAKS ARE SEEN OVER THE AREA THOUGH THEY MAY BE SHORT-LIVED
AS MORE-SOLID STRATUS MOVING IN FROM OHIO SHORTLY. 8H TEMPS DO
DROP ABOUT 4C THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND SFC TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OF EVEN DIP SOME IN THE MORNING. IF THE SERN ZONES
CAN GET SOME SUN TODAY THE TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW DEGS BUT MAY
NOT GET BACK TO WHERE THEY ARE HERE AT 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
BLASTS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING THIS WAVE DEEPENS THE
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA TONIGHT...BUT HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY AFTER
THE TROUGH PASSES THIS EVENING. STILL...THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE
WILL CERTAINLY ADD TO THE LIFT AND CREATE WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
ACCUMULATION...BUT WILL CARRY AN INCH TO TWO OVER THE NWRN MTNS.
THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 4 AM.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND THE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE ADVANCING HIGH SHOULD KILL THINGS OFF AROUND
SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD ON SATURDAY. THE 1030MB HIGH IS ONCE
AGAIN OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND NOT OUT OF CANADA BUT IT WILL RUN
ABOUT 3-8F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MAXES ON SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXPANDS TO COVER ABOUT 3/4S OF THE CONUS.
AFTER A NEARLY NORMAL COLD START TO SUNDAY...MOST PLACES WILL GET
BACK TO ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SUN.
THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND QUIET WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
BRING A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHC OF
RAIN WILL BE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AIRSPACE TODAY. MVFR
CIGS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE IN
ZOB SECTOR. EXPECT FREQUENT SFC WIND GUSTS 25-35KT FROM 270-300
TODAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. OCNL GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40KT. THE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENT MIXING WILL RESULT IN A PRETTY BUMPY TAKEOFF AND FINAL
APPROACH INTO AND OUT OF LOCAL AIRFIELDS.
LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
INVOF OF BFD THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN IFR SHSN AT BFD AFT 00Z. JST WILL ALSO LKLY EXPERIENCE OCNL IFR
VSBY IN SHSN LATER TONIGHT. THE SHSN ACTIVITY CONTINUES INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTN AND ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS VFR FLYING FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...IFR/MVFR AT BFD-JST BCMG MVFR/VFR. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY PUT US BELOW NORMAL FOR A 7-DAY
STRETCH FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID-OCTOBER.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
638 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER STEADY OR EVEN FALLING
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY NIGHTFALL. A BETTER CHANCE FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE WEST WIND WILL BE GUSTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOL AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDS EATEN UP BY THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO THE SE OF UNV.
HOWEVER...THICKER STRATUS MOVING IN NOW. SOME OF THAT SHIELD
SHOULD SURVIVE DEEPER INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY...ESP WHEN THE BIG PUSH
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS DOWN LATER THIS AFTN. WINDS STILL
GUSTING INTO THE 20S AREA WIDE. AOO WITH THE GAP WIND AND UNV ARE
STILL INTO THE 30S AT TIMES. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE GOING
FCST. SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TIMING OF CHANGE TO SNOW WITH AN EYE
TOWARD HRRR P-TYPE.
PREV...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ON RADAR...BUT MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA DUE TO THE WESTERLY FETCH. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN CHECK BY THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WELL-MIXED BLYR.
SOME BREAKS ARE SEEN OVER THE AREA THOUGH THEY MAY BE SHORT-LIVED
AS MORE-SOLID STRATUS MOVING IN FROM OHIO SHORTLY. 8H TEMPS DO
DROP ABOUT 4C THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND SFC TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OF EVEN DIP SOME IN THE MORNING. IF THE SERN ZONES
CAN GET SOME SUN TODAY THE TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW DEGS BUT MAY
NOT GET BACK TO WHERE THEY ARE HERE AT 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
BLASTS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING THIS WAVE DEEPENS THE
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA TONIGHT...BUT HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY AFTER
THE TROUGH PASSES THIS EVENING. STILL...THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE
WILL CERTAINLY ADD TO THE LIFT AND CREATE WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
ACCUMULATION...BUT WILL CARRY AN INCH TO TWO OVER THE NWRN MTNS.
THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 4 AM.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND THE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE ADVANCING HIGH SHOULD KILL THINGS OFF AROUND
SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD ON SATURDAY. THE 1030MB HIGH IS ONCE
AGAIN OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND NOT OUT OF CANADA BUT IT WILL RUN
ABOUT 3-8F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MAXES ON SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXPANDS TO COVER ABOUT 3/4S OF THE CONUS.
AFTER A NEARLY NORMAL COLD START TO SUNDAY...MOST PLACES WILL GET
BACK TO ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SUN.
THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND QUIET WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
BRING A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHC OF
RAIN WILL BE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
09Z UPDATE...IR STLT LOOP SHOWS SOME CLEARING OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL AIRSPACE AND CLOUD BASES HAVE LIFTED TO LOW VFR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT BFD. OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO 06Z TAF FOR THIS
INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.
06Z...MVFR CIGS 1500-3000FT AGL WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL TAFS THIS MORNING WITH LOW END VFR CIGS AROUND 4-5KFT AGL
ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS. UNV/AOO MAY LIFT TO LOW END VFR THIS
AFTN BUT NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AT BFD/JST GIVEN FAVORED WLY FLOW
PATTERN.
EXPECT FREQUENT SFC WIND GUSTS 25-35KT FROM 270-300 DURING THE DAY
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE LATER TONIGHT. OCNL GUST AOA 40KTS PSBL.
THE LOW LEVEL TURBULENT MIXING WILL RESULT IN A PRETTY BUMPY
TAKEOFF AND FINAL APPROACH INTO LOCAL AIRFIELDS.
LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY FOCUS OVER
NW PA BEFORE BECOMING MORE NW-SE ORIENTED TONIGHT AS MEAN BLYR
FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE WNW. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR SHSN AT BFD
AFT 00Z. JST WILL ALSO LKLY EXPERIENCE IFR VSBY IN SHSN LATER
TONIGHT. THE SHSN ACTIVITY CONTINUES INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS VFR FLYING FOR SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...IFR/MVFR AT BFD-JST BCMG MVFR/VFR. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY PUT US BELOW NORMAL FOR A 7-DAY
STRETCH FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID-OCTOBER.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1232 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS TEMPERATURES
GET COLDER...A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND
MILDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR TERM FORECAST
AS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUES DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND LATEST GUIDANCE STILL KEEPS
MAGNITUDES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREV DISC...987MB SURFACE WAS LOW SPINNING OVER LOWER QUEBEC. RATHER
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WIND
GUSTS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 25-35KTS TO AROUND 50KTS ACROSS
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. AS THIS TREND IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY. WE WILL KEEP GUSTS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UP TO A COUPLE OF
REPORTS. WE WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. THE
NEXT CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS WERE
IMPACTING THE TUG HILL PLATEAU EXTENDING INTO THE ADIRONDACKS.
ANOTHER BAND WAS ATTEMPTING TO INFILTRATE FURTHER INLAND FROM LAKE
ERIE. PER THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH A FASTER TRACK OF THE LOWER
QUEBEC LOW AND ANOTHER PV ANOMALY TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
TO BACK A LITTLE THIS MORNING AND LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING WAVE WILL
ASSIST WITH FURTHER COLD ADVECTION AS H850 TEMPS DROP EVEN FURTHER
BY 1-3C. AS SEEN IN THE HRRR REFLECTIVITIES...THE LAKE ERIE BAND
MAY GET MORE OF A BOOST WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND BRING
SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION LATER THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...WE WILL
INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING ALONG THE I 90 CORRIDOR. THEN AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE FOR MORE SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
MIX WITH SLEET/GRAUPEL IF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS ARE DEEP ENOUGH.
THIS COULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE THIS EVENING AS THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT AND TRACKING OF THE UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
ISALLOBARIC COUPLET MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH THOSE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE QG FORCING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL FURTHER
WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS A RA/SN MIX WITH SOME SLEET/GRAUPEL. MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED INTO THE ADIRONDACKS WERE UP TO
A COUPLE OF INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE BANDS SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY TO 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TONIGHT LOWS DIP BACK
THROUGH THE 20S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO THE LOW-MID 30S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30F ACROSS THE
TERRAIN WITH 30S AND 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. TONIGHT THOSE
VALUES DIP FURTHER WITH TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO AROUND
30 FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SPLIT IN HALF WITH THE FIRST HALF RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH BRISK CONDITIONS AND RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN AND WEST OF ALBANY...THEN THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SO THE TREND WILL BE INCREASING BREAKS OF THE CLOUDS AND
SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS. MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR AN INCREASING
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTH PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AS WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM INCREASES. THIS COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF CLOUD COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I90...AS WE WILL PLACE PTCLOUDY CONDITIONS INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MAINLY
20S FOR THE REGION. THEN A SLOW REBOUND INTO THE TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE 0C.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE QUIET WEATHER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED CLOSE TO THE REGION...AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND STRENGTHEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE CUTOFF
LOW THAT WILL DEEPEN AND LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US.
AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE TREND TO BEING ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SKY COVER WILL BEGIN PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT MORE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE WEEK.
LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS...WITH
HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S. TOWARDS
MIDWEEK...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
EVENTUALLY...THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE US WILL WEAKEN
AND LIFT OF TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE
STORM/S TRAILING COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS STILL AREN/T CLEAR IN THE
EXACT TIMING OF WHETHER IT WILL OCCUR THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. FOR
NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS BEGINNING WITH WED NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO JUST
A FEW HOUR PERIOD WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME ON
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
18Z SATURDAY.
A BLUSTERY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSAGES...WILL KEEP BKN/OVC CUMULUS AND
STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE VFR RANGE.
GENERALLY BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING OVER THE REGION WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT
12 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT KALB
AND KPSF. TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY...BUT THE MAXIMUM
GUSTS WILL DECREASE TO 16 TO 22 KTS. ON SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AS MIXING INCREASES. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AT SPEEDS OF 12 TO 16 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
26 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DESPITE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 25-45 MPH.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL QPF IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE HSA...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN
DACKS...AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH MAY OCCUR. MUCH OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL
BE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES INTO THE ADIRONDACKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IRL/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1155 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT CONTINUES TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE WIND GUSTS AND SHOWER
CHANCES LATER TODAY.
MUCH QUIETER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND MILDER WEATHER. THE
AREA COULD SEE A COUPLE OF MORE STRONGER SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MORE WIND AND RAIN TO THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES DROPPING SOUTH THOUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF DEEPER
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO 8000 TO
10,000 FT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE... WHICH IS HAPPENING
CURRENTLY... CONTINUING THROUGH 00-03Z TONIGHT. THIS IS AIDED BY
LAKE INSTABILITY WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 16C.
THE IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
COULD HAVE SOME FAIRLY DECENT INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY FALLING TO AROUND 1200
FT... WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 1000 FT... SO A FEW BRIEF
HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY COAT THE GRASS
ARE POSSIBLE. NO ROADS ISSUES ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH SFC TEMPS
HOVERING AROUND 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
OUR MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST DEAL WITH
WIND POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...AND THE POTENTIAL OF MIXED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
WE WILL BE PULLING DOWN THE ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING...AND HOLDING OFF ON ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA FOR TODAY. FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW POTENTIAL ADVISORY WINDS
ALOFT IF THEY WERE TO BE MIXED DOWN FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF SUNSHINE AND LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES WILL LIMIT THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM POTENTIAL
FOR TODAY. FCST MODELS ALSO SHOW GUST POTENTIAL STAYING JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TOO WINDY.
WINDS TO 40 MPH LOOK LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIMITED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...LIMITED
TO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE CWFA. ECHOES ARE ONCE AGAIN STARTING TO
SHOW UP OVER THE LAKE AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY ACROSS WI AND MN
IS APPROACHING THE AREA. WE EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BLOSSOM
THROUGH MID MORNING. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE W/NW FLOW FAVORED AREAS
AS THE LAKE WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOWERS WITH DELTA T/S IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS C.
P-TYPE LOOKS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS
MORNING AS WET-BULB ZERO HTS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 1500 FT EARLY.
THESE WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WE GET JUST A LITTLE
DIURNAL HEATING. WE EXPECT THAT LIGHTER PCPN WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE BURSTS ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE MORE
SNOW TO REACH THE SFC. THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE CELLULAR AND DIURNAL IN NATURE AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST...BUT WE WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN THE
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO BUILD
IN AND MILDER TEMPS MAKE A GRADUAL RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE FLOW
BECOMES SW THROUGH SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
SFC RIDGING MOVES EAST BY MONDAY WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SFC CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM
KANSAS ON TUESDAY TO THE MICHIGAN U.P. BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS BREAKING
OUT ACROSS WEST MICHIGAN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES THAT AFFECT THE TIMING
OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH MORE AND LESS PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS AFFECTING WHEN THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS WOULD MEAN HIGHER
POPS ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS LATER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
CIGS IN THE 2500-4000 FT AGL RANGE AND NUMEROUS MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL CAUSE INTERMITTENT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY. WNW WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MIXED MVFR/VFR TO VFR OVERNIGHT AS CIGS
IMPROVE AND PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN
VFR FOR SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WSW TO SW.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS REMAIN ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST THIS MORNING...
SO THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. THE
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
WITH WAVES OF 10 FT CONTINUING TO CAUSE POTENTIAL FLOODING OF SOME
LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION.
WE ARE EXPECTING WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THEY WILL THEN DIMINISH. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
HEADLINES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MORE HEADLINES ARE LIKELY SAT NIGHT
AND/OR SUN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS MORNING RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. LIGHT ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR
SO. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVES MID NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1129 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT CONTINUES TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE WIND GUSTS AND SHOWER
CHANCES LATER TODAY.
MUCH QUIETER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND MILDER WEATHER. THE
AREA COULD SEE A COUPLE OF MORE STRONGER SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MORE WIND AND RAIN TO THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES DROPPING SOUTH THOUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF DEEPER
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO 8000 TO
10,000 FT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE... WHICH IS HAPPENING
CURRENTLY... CONTINUING THROUGH 00-03Z TONIGHT. THIS IS AIDED BY
LAKE INSTABILITY WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 16C.
THE IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
COULD HAVE SOME FAIRLY DECENT INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY FALLING TO AROUND 1200
FT... WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 1000 FT... SO A FEW BRIEF
HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY COAT THE GRASS
ARE POSSIBLE. NO ROADS ISSUES ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH SFC TEMPS
HOVERING AROUND 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
OUR MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST DEAL WITH
WIND POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...AND THE POTENTIAL OF MIXED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
WE WILL BE PULLING DOWN THE ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING...AND HOLDING OFF ON ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA FOR TODAY. FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW POTENTIAL ADVISORY WINDS
ALOFT IF THEY WERE TO BE MIXED DOWN FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF SUNSHINE AND LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES WILL LIMIT THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM POTENTIAL
FOR TODAY. FCST MODELS ALSO SHOW GUST POTENTIAL STAYING JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TOO WINDY.
WINDS TO 40 MPH LOOK LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIMITED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...LIMITED
TO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE CWFA. ECHOES ARE ONCE AGAIN STARTING TO
SHOW UP OVER THE LAKE AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY ACROSS WI AND MN
IS APPROACHING THE AREA. WE EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BLOSSOM
THROUGH MID MORNING. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE W/NW FLOW FAVORED AREAS
AS THE LAKE WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOWERS WITH DELTA T/S IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS C.
P-TYPE LOOKS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS
MORNING AS WET-BULB ZERO HTS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 1500 FT EARLY.
THESE WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WE GET JUST A LITTLE
DIURNAL HEATING. WE EXPECT THAT LIGHTER PCPN WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE BURSTS ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE MORE
SNOW TO REACH THE SFC. THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE CELLULAR AND DIURNAL IN NATURE AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST...BUT WE WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN THE
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO BUILD
IN AND MILDER TEMPS MAKE A GRADUAL RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE FLOW
BECOMES SW THROUGH SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
SFC RIDGING MOVES EAST BY MONDAY WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SFC CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM
KANSAS ON TUESDAY TO THE MICHIGAN U.P. BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS BREAKING
OUT ACROSS WEST MICHIGAN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES THAT AFFECT THE TIMING
OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH MORE AND LESS PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS AFFECTING WHEN THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS WOULD MEAN HIGHER
POPS ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS LATER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS MORNING
AND THEN DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE IN THE 2500 TO 3500 FT AGL LEVEL WITH THE LOWER
VALUES IN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS REMAIN ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST THIS MORNING...
SO THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. THE
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
WITH WAVES OF 10 FT CONTINUING TO CAUSE POTENTIAL FLOODING OF SOME
LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION.
WE ARE EXPECTING WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THEY WILL THEN DIMINISH. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
HEADLINES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MORE HEADLINES ARE LIKELY SAT NIGHT
AND/OR SUN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS MORNING RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. LIGHT ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR
SO. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVES MID NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
400 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND
ONTARIO. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT AS
REINFORCING COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL MIX WITH
AND CHANCE TO SNOW THIS EVENING... ALTHOUGH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW NORMAL ON
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...FAIR AND NOTABLY MILDER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING... HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY WITH THIS UPDATE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST 35 TO 45 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND TURNING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS CONTINUE EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
THIS EVENING UNDER A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING... WITH
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -3 TO -4C AT
THIS POINT. WITH THIS COOLER AIR MOVING IN... THERE HAVE BEEN
INCREASING REPORTS OF RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. DYNAMICAL COOLING WITHIN
THE HEAVIER LAKE ENHANCED BANDS WILL FURTHER HELP PUSH THE P-TYPE
OVER TO MAINLY SNOW THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WITH THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN IN
SURFACE OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO WITH A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND MANY OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT... AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL CHANCE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW EVEN ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO DISRUPT THE LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND SHIFT THEM SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TONIGHT. SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE MORE THAN
A TRACE TO A LIGHT DUSTING AND BE MAINLY LIMITED TO ELEVATED AND
GRASSY SURFACES. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THE TUG HILL REGION... SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 UP TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. EVEN HERE THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO ELEVATED
AND GRASSY SURFACES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ON THE ROADS.
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE WHERE ANY
WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT BANDS DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. KEPT
SOME LOW-LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS AND FOR ANY UPSTREAM LAKE CONNECTIONS TO LAKE HURON AND THE
GEORGIAN BAY WHICH CAUSE THESE LAKE SHOWERS TO BE MORE RESILIENT
AGAINST THE DRYING AIRMASS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE MOISTURE IN A -8C AT 850MB AIRMASS COMBINING
TO CREATE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER CHILLY
RELATIVE TO OUR MILD FALL THUS FAR WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW 40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
END ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES EARLY IN THE EVENING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID IN SKIES
CLEARING. AS THE WIND FIELD LIGHTENS...OUR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SPOKE OF THE HIGH
RIDGED ACROSS OUR REGION...A STORM SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AS FAIR WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ON
TUESDAY A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL NOW BE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHEAST BREEZE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BREEZE COMBINED WITH THE
YET BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE LAKES TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
POSSIBLY 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CUT OFF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. A
STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE RICH GULF AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY HOW LONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE LONGER
THIS FEATURE TAKES TO TRANSITION FROM A CUTOFF LOW TO AN OPEN WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE...THE LATER IN THE WEEK A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND
ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WILL BE.
FOR OUR REGION EXPECT BUILDING WARMTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BEFORE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM PUSHES A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY COULD REACH 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
SEVERAL AREAS POSSIBLY AGAIN REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THERE MAY BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE THE MAIN PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
(ECMWF) OR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY (GFS). THOUGH A STORM SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS HIGHLY LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...UNCERTAIN
TIMING ISSUES WILL WARRANT ONLY CHANCE POPS WITHIN THE
DAILY FORECAST PACKAGE.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. AS TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA DROP
INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION OFF BOTH EASTERN GREAT LAKES ARE
BRINGING LARGELY MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EAST OF THE LAKES.
PRESENTLY THE PRECIPITATION IS RAIN WITH EMBEDDED GRAUPEL WITHIN
THESE BANDS...BUT AS A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX
WITH AND AT TIMES BECOME ALL SNOW. THIS SECONDARY TROUGH WILL LIKELY
BRING PRECIPITATION TO ALL AIRFIELDS TONIGHT. AS THE PASSAGE OF THE
SECONDARY TROUGH OCCURS EXPECT A FURTHER REDUCTION TO LOW END
MVFR/IFR VSBYS. THOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TIME SUCH IFR VSBYS IS LOW AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS...IF IT WERE TO OCCUR...THE KJHW
AND KART AIRFIELD WOULD BE THE BEST BETS.
AS FOR THE WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS STILL NEAR 40 KNOTS ARE
FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE KART AIRFIELD. ELSEWHERE
WITH THE LOSS OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE GUSTS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. THIS LOSS OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO
MINIMIZE THE LLWS POSSIBILITY.
BY 12Z SATURDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOCUS THE BANDS OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SHORELINE OF BOTH LAKES...WITH
SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF KROC...AND LIKELY STILL PASSING OVER THE
KJHW TERMINAL WITH REDUCED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY PM...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A DEEP STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL KEEP STRONG
GUSTY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING...SO
GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE LAKES. HAVE REPLACED GALE
WARNINGS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE NIAGARA AND SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVERS AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGES
THERE.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING...WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH. GALE
WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY SUPPORTING
A CONTINUED GALE WARNING ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LK ONTARIO THROUGH
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A
FAIRLY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045-
063>065.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042-062.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...CHURCH/RSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
338 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
Weak shortwave will move into West Texas tonight and then across
West Central Texas on Saturday. The TTU WRF and the HRRR both show a
little more widespread rainfall as this wave passes than the larger
scale models. What showers that do develop will be battling some
very dry air at the surface, so the rain tonight may well evaporate
before reaching the ground. As low level moisture increases on
Saturday, the rain has a better and better chance of reaching the
ground. With this in mind, left the rain chances tonight very small
and confined to just the southwest counties. Increased rain chances
slightly for Saturday, especially for the eastern counties, and
pushed them northward across the I-20 corridor from Sweetwater to
Abilene. Overall though, most areas will see totals less than one
tenth of an inch.
Otherwise, cool conditions on Saturday with the additional rain and
cloud cover. Kept most areas in the 50s to around 60 for highs.
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Sunday Night)
The combination of weak disturbances in west-southwest flow aloft
and isentropic lift/overrunning will bring a chance of showers and
few thunderstorms this weekend. The rainfall amounts will be light,
generally less than 1/10 of an inch for most areas...with local
amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch possible.
(Monday through Tuesday)
There will be a chance of thunderstorms Monday and Monday night and
then windy for Tuesday. The medium range models are indicating a
vigorous upper level trough developing over the western CONUS this
weekend, advancing east with the trough axis over the Southern
Rockies by 17/00Z. After that, strong mid to upper level ascent
spreads east into the Southern Plains Monday night into Tuesday
morning, along with a mid level speed max of 80 to 100 knots. At the
surface, a dryline/Pacific front will be just west of our area by
17/00Z. Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop
along the dryline late Monday afternoon into the evening and move
rapidly east across the area. A few storms may be severe due to
strong low and mid level shear and some instability. The PW values
of 1 to 1.25 inches may result in locally heavy rainfall across
mainly the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country. Most of the
storms should exit the area by late Monday night. A mid level dry
slot will follow for Tuesday, resulting in windy conditions with
gusts of 30 to 35 mph.
(Tuesday Night through Friday)
Looks like a quiet weather pattern with seasonable temperatures.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the upper 30s and 40s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 44 58 50 62 / 5 30 20 50
San Angelo 46 57 52 65 / 20 40 20 50
Junction 48 57 51 65 / 10 40 30 40
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
07/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
958 AM PST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY...REACHING SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING. A BREAK FROM THE WET AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY
THIS EVENING ONCE THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF A LOCATION.
HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY AND PUSH THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A RENEWED ROUND OF RAIN ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
WIND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RAIN WILL RESUME ON MONDAY
AS WARM FRONT REACHES THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A STRONG 160 KT JET AT 300 MB IS CUTTING ACROSS
VANCOUVER ISLAND TODAY. SUCH STRONG JET ARE USUALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG BAROCLINICITY...A FANCY WORD FOR STRONG TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE JET OR A COLD FRONT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. INDEED...A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW
MAKING SLOW HEADWAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH WRN WA. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WHILE LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE SEEING DECREASING
WIND AND AN EASING OF RAINFALL RATES. AT 9 AM...THE FRONT WAS
LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR OCEAN SHORES TO ARLINGTON. AS THE
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY...THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD
DECREASING WIND AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN. THE
MAIN FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN LATER THIS AFTN WILL BE OVER LEWIS COUNTY
AND OVER THE CASCADES FROM ABOUT STEVENS PASS ON SOUTH. A TURN TO
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN OVER SNOHOMISH AND NORTHERN
KING COUNTIES.
ON SATURDAY...A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...INITIATING SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. A DEEPENING AND ELONGATED LOW CENTER
WILL MOVE UP THE OREGON COAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW...THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL START TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD...AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN LIFT AND PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT OVER WRN WA. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP A GOOD BIT OF SNOW
OVER THE MTNS. THE MAIN POINT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MTN SNOW WILL
BE DUE TO HAVING SUCH A SHARP BAROCLINIC AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTING AROUND OVER WRN WA ON SAT AND SAT NGT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE QUITE HIGH (ABOUT 7000 FEET) ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3000-4500 FEET ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE OLYMPICS STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE
OF STAYING ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THE MOUNT
RAINIER AREA HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF REMAINING ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. ULTIMATELY...EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT MTN
LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP.
AS THE DEEPENING LOW EXITS TO OUR NE ON SUNDAY...SW PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT AND OVER THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE ABOUT A 5-10 HOUR PERIOD OF WINDY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
WRN WA ON SUNDAY...CENTERED ON SUNDAY AFTN. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS
LIKE THE WIND WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BEHIND THE LOW ON SUNDAY...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL SWEEP IN. 850 MB
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE -6C TO -4C RANGE...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO 2000 FEET OR LESS. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND A
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE POINTED AT STEVENS PASS...LOOKS LIKE
THE KIND OF WEATHER THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SNOWPACK-BUILDING OVER
THE MTNS. HANER
.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE E OF W WA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SHOWERY
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER W WA WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN AROUND 2000
FEET. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN HAVING CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SEEM TO HAVE SETTLED ON A WARM FRONT
REACHING THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS
BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DIFFER ON THE
TIMING. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KAM
&&
.AVIATION...A STRONG FRONT SITTING FROM AROUND KNUW TO THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST WILL SAG SLOWLY SWD TO S OF KOLM AND KHQM 03Z SAT.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SAT.
THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND MOIST.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE AREA.
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
10Z SAT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM STARTS MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT. ALBRECHT
KSEA...CIGS GENERALLY 012-020 THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VIS 4-6SM IN
-RA BR. SOUTH WINDS 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL TAPER OFF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME N/NE 5-8 KT WITH CIGS AROUND 015
BY ABOUT 14Z SAT WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS DROP TO 007 WITH
VIS 2 TO 4 SM -RA BR. ALBRECHT
&&
.MARINE...GALE FORCE WINDS OVER PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL WILL EASE
FROM THE NORTH TODAY. GALES HAVE ENDED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
IN THE INLAND WATERS NORTH OF PUGET SOUND AS A STRONG AND SLOW
MOVING FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE INLAND WATERS ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WILL EASE THIS
EVENING.
A 19-22 FT SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 18 SECONDS WILL MOVE ONTO THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
SOME FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW FORMING OVER THE
OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS SAT AFTERNOON THAT WILL LIFT NNE THROUGH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS LOW COULD GIVE GALE FORCE NW WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY N WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND
WATERS SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
FOR A STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WITH SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ALBRECHT
&&
.HYDROLOGY...HAD SOME IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES IN THE NORTH
CASCADES EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND THE 24-HOUR TOTALS OVER THE
OLYMPICS HAVE BEEN PRETTY AMAZING. RAIN GAGES NEAR LAKE QUINAULT
HAVE MEASURED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 11 INCHES IN JUST 24 HOURS. WRN WA
RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY RISING...WITH MANY MAINSTEM RIVERS HEADING
TOWARD MINOR AND MODERATE FLOODING. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER.
THE MOST PRONOUNCED DROPOFF IN RAINFALL RATES TODAY WILL BE OVER
THE FAR NORTH CASCADES AND THE NW HALF OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...RAINFALL RATES WILL DROP OFF THIS AFTN...BUT
IT WILL BE LEAST PRONOUNCED OVER LEWIS COUNTY AND THE CASCADES
FROM STEVENS PASS ON SOUTH.HANER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WIND ADVISORY CENTRAL COAST UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND ADVISORY INTERIOR LOWLANDS FROM THE EVERETT AREA SOUTH
THROUGH LEWIS COUNTY UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST SATURDAY
FOR THE COAST.
FLOOD WATCHES AND/OR FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PZ...GALE WARNING PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
952 AM PST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and warm weather system with wind, rain and high
elevation snow is expected through the weekend. Another strong
storm is likely Monday night through Wednesday bringing a mix of
rain and snow and windy conditions once again. Conditions start to
dry out toward the latter part of next week, at least briefly.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: An atmospheric river remains aimed at the area with heavy
rain falling near the Cascade crest. Thus far rain gauges have
shown as much as 4 inches of precip at the crest with 1.85" east
of the crest in Stehekin. Rain will continue at the crest today
and will be monitoring the Stehekin River as well as rain totals
for burn scars near the crest. East of the Cascade crest a
significant rain shadow is prevalent across Central and Eastern
Washington and the forecast has been updated to decrease POP`s and
precipitation amounts. 850mb winds out of the west- southwest
hitting the Cascades at 50 kts will continue to result in a strong
rain shadow today. However some of the higher resolution models
such as the ARW, NMM, as well as the HRRR suggest precip may fill
in during the afternoon across Northeast Washington, the Idaho
Panhandle, as possibly over the eastern Columbia Basin and Spokane
area as the atmospheric river stalls over the region. Confidence
is highest of this occurring in the mountains of NE Washington and
N Idaho.
The break in the rain prompted a wind advisory to be issued
earlier for the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area,
and Palouse. With this break in the rain expected to continue
through at least early afternoon, the potential will remain for
higher winds above the surface to mix down and will keep these
wind advisories in place.
Lastly, the break in the rain and even some sun breaks have
allowed temps as of 9 am already to reach the mid 50s around Moses
Lake. Have increased temps to lower 60s which would be a daily
record for Ephrata. Also increased a temps 2-4 degrees for most
other towns based on latest temperature trends. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An atmospheric river will remain aimed at the Inland NW
with rain today mainly over the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle.
Strong downslope flow off the Cascades and a break in the rain
over Central and Eastern Washington will lead to windy conditions
with southwest winds gusting to 30-40 kts. The Cascade valleys
will be sheltered from these winds...and KEAT should remain
variable. Overall the downslope flow decreases some tonight and
with the atmospheric river remaining over the area should see an
increase in rain over the region...especially north of KPUW
impacting the KGEG/KSFF/KCOE TAF sites with MVFR conditions
expected by Saturday morning. VFR conditions are expected through
18z Saturday at KPUW/KLWS/KEAT/KMWH. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 44 51 38 42 28 / 40 80 60 50 80 20
Coeur d`Alene 53 42 49 39 44 29 / 60 90 70 40 70 20
Pullman 54 41 53 38 42 29 / 40 60 30 30 60 20
Lewiston 59 44 56 43 50 35 / 10 30 20 30 60 20
Colville 52 43 48 38 46 25 / 60 100 100 70 80 20
Sandpoint 48 40 45 36 42 26 / 100 100 100 50 70 20
Kellogg 43 39 47 37 39 27 / 100 80 60 30 70 30
Moses Lake 63 47 56 38 50 29 / 10 40 40 70 20 10
Wenatchee 54 44 53 40 49 33 / 10 30 40 70 20 10
Omak 57 40 48 39 48 29 / 10 50 70 80 80 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for Coeur d`Alene
Area-Idaho Palouse.
WA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for Spokane Area-
Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
927 AM PST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MILD AND WET FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FIRST...A WARM FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES TO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN...A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
PLENTY OF RAIN AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND
NOTABLE CASCADE SNOW. A TRAILING UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...VALLEY RAIN
SHOWERS...AND SNOW TO THE CASCADES. ANOTHER RATHER WET...BUT FAST
MOVING...SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THOUGH MONDAY...ATMOSPHERIC RIVER RAIN EVENT
WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE COLD FRONT POISED TO STALL NORTH OF OUR
AREA. FOR OUR AREA LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST AND NORTH OREGON COASTAL AREAS. NESDIS SATELLITE
PCPN ESTIMATE CALL FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN RATES AGAIN THIS MORNING
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS FEATURE CAN BE SEEN NEARING THE COAST ON IR
SATELLITE LOOP.
THE BREAK IN HEAVIER RAIN RATES HAS ALLOWED RIVERS IN SW WASHINGTON
TO SLOW OR STOP RISING. THIS WILL EASE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE SHORT TERM. AS WILL BE COVERED NEXT...DO NOT HAVE
ANY CONFIDENCE TO DROP THE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. /MH
NEXT SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF INTEREST ALONG THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS A
SHORTWAVE APPARENT ON SATELLITE NEAR 150W. THIS FEATURE WILL START
TO SPIN UP INTO A LOW AS IT NEARS 140W LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
FULLY DEVELOP WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AS IT CROSSES 130W. ALL
THE WHILE, IT WILL BE DRAGGING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH AND WEST.
THIS WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE STALLED COLD FRONT NORTH AND WEST TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MOST INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY FEEL THE
RELATIVE CALM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PIVOTS OVER SW
WASHINGTON AND BECOMES ORIENTED MORE NORTH TO SOUTH. NOT TERRIBLY
SURE JUST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BUT LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE
COASTLINE OR JUST OFFSHORE. ALL THE WHILE...NW OREGON/SW WASHINGTON
WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN WITH 0.75-1.00 INCHES EVERY
6 HOURS BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES ALONG THE UPPER JET. EXPECT WINDS WILL
PEAK ALONG THE COAST WITH 50-60 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE...PERHAPS LOCALLY
HIGHER DEPENDING ON JUST HOW CLOSE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PHASES
WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE. ALSO...THIS IS WHEN AREAS EAST
OF THE COAST RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR BEST RAINS. STILL NOT
LOOKING ANYTHING LIKE THE HALLOWEEN EVENT BUT BREEZY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STRIP LEAVES OFF TREES. CLOGGED DRAINS
AND CULVERTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF FLOOD CONCERNS AWAY FROM
THE EXTREME NW PART OF THE CWA.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASING UNSTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE COLDER MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS DRIFTS
OVER THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS SEEM POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE COAST
RANGE WESTWARD. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW TO PRODUCE NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
RATES FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY. THE COLDER SIR WILL BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO THE HIGHER CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE PEAKS.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE BURSTS OF RAIN/SNOW...ONE ON SUNDAY MORNING
AND ANOTHER SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BECOME POSSIBLE FOR THE CASCADES
PASSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12 HOUR ACCUMULATIONS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING. STAY TUNED...HOWEVER...AS TIMING OF THESE BURSTS
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS
UNDER JET ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW. /JBONK
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. REMAINDER OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWER-ELEVATION SNOW WON`T
STICK AROUND FOR LONG THOUGH...AS SNOW LEVELS LIFT BACK UP TO 6000-
7000 FT BY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES OUR AREA...TAPPING INTO TROPICAL
MOISTURE CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM A
BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN WHERE THEY WERE TRACKING IT
YESTERDAY...SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. BECAUSE MODELS ARE BEING INCONSISTENT WITH FORECASTING
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL SET UP AT THIS TIME. SINCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN ON THE
HEELS OF ANOTHER HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCER...THE FLOODING POTENTIAL IS
HIGHER PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE NORTH OREGON
COAST AND COAST RANGE AS RIVERS WON`T HAVE MUCH TIME TO COME BACK
DOWN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO
THURSDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW THE PASSES FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...PERSISTENT MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS REMAINS OVER
THE AREA WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST IN
LIGHT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND FAR
NORTH OREGON COASTS THROUGH TONIGHT...SPREADING SOME RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA INLAND. EXPECT A CONTINUED MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS...WITH THE BETTER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z-08Z SATURDAY BEFORE A BAND OF RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINAL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. /27
&&
.MARINE...COMPLICATED MARINE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
REMAINS HUNG UP ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS.
THE MODELS THEN ARE ADAMANT A 995 TO 1000 MB SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY AS IT BECOMES
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND COULD POSSIBLY INCREASE TO HIGH END
GALE OR PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER BEFORE THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT THAT MAY BE EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OR LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO
THE WATERS.
SEAS 13 TO 16 FT THIS MORNING WILL PEAK AROUND 20 TO 21 FT WITH
PERIODS 17 TO 19 SECONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LONG
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES IN. HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST DUE TO THESE HIGH SEAS. SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY...PEAKING WITH THE FRONT AND LOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A RISK OF REACHING 20 FT AGAIN. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE 10 FT INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES. PT/27
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM 7 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10
AM PST SATURDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
856 AM PST FRI NOV 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and warm weather system with wind, rain and high
elevation snow is expected through the weekend. Another strong
storm is likely Monday night through Wednesday bringing a mix of
rain and snow and windy conditions once again. Conditions start to
dry out toward the latter part of next week, at least briefly.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: An atmospheric river remains aimed at the area with heavy
rain falling near the Cascade crest. Thus far rain gauges have
shown as much as 4 inches of precip at the crest with 1.85" east
of the crest in Stehekin. Rain will continue at the crest today
and will be monitoring the Stehekin River as well as rain totals
for burn scars near the crest. East of the Cascade crest a
significant rain shadow is prevalent across Central and Eastern
Washington and the forecast has been updated to decrease POP`s and
precipitation amounts. 850mb winds out of the west- southwest
hitting the Cascades at 50 kts will continue to result in a strong
rain shadow today. However some of the higher resolution models
such as the ARW, NMM, as well as the HRRR suggest precip may fill
in during the afternoon across Northeast Washington, the Idaho
Panhandle, as possibly over the eastern Columbia Basin and Spokane
area as the atmospheric river stalls over the region. Confidence
is highest of this occurring in the mountains of NE Washington and
N Idaho.
The break in the rain prompted a wind advisory to be issued
earlier for the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area,
and Palouse. With this break in the rain expected to continue
through at least early afternoon, the potential will remain for
higher winds above the surface to mix down and will keep these
wind advisories in place. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A deep and well directed fetch of Pacific moisture
driven by westerly flow aloft will promote a long running period
of widespread rain over much of the region through the TAF period.
Mountain obscurations will be widespread surrounding the Columbia
Basin. The eastern TAF sites will see sustained periods of rain
but ceilings and visibilities should remain VFR except for brief
periods of MVFR ceilings possible. The KMWH and KEAT TAF sites
will lay in a downslope region in the lee of the Cascades and
remain predominantly dry and VFR although with heavy mid level
cloud ceilings of 8-10kft MSL. Strong winds just off the surface
will create LLWS over the eastern TAF sites this morning...but
mixing will promote these winds affecting the surface by afternoon
with southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph likely with higher gusts
especially at the KGEG area TAF sites. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 54 44 51 38 42 28 / 40 80 60 50 80 20
Coeur d`Alene 51 42 49 39 44 29 / 60 90 70 40 70 20
Pullman 54 41 53 38 42 29 / 40 60 30 30 60 20
Lewiston 57 44 56 43 50 35 / 10 30 20 30 60 20
Colville 48 43 48 38 46 25 / 60 100 100 70 80 20
Sandpoint 45 40 45 36 42 26 / 100 100 100 50 70 20
Kellogg 43 39 47 37 39 27 / 100 80 60 30 70 30
Moses Lake 58 47 56 38 50 29 / 10 40 40 70 20 10
Wenatchee 54 44 53 40 49 33 / 10 30 40 70 20 10
Omak 53 40 48 39 48 29 / 10 50 70 80 80 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for Coeur d`Alene
Area-Idaho Palouse.
WA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for Spokane Area-
Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.
&&
$$
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER
TROUGHING MOVING EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES HOWEVER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH A WIDESPREAD OVERCAST OVER THE NORTHEAST THREE QUARTERS
OF THE STATE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING NE WI AND THINK DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE SNOW BELTS...BUT ALSO
THINK THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE 21-00Z TIME PERIOD. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING EAST OVER WESTERN
WI AHEAD OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVER MINNESOTA. SOME
BREAKS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS. FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS...AND ALSO TEMPS.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
ADVANCEMENT OF MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCELERATE A CLEARING TREND THIS
EVENING. WILL ONLY SEE THE PASSAGE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS EXIT. TEMPS ARE RATHER TRICKY SINCE WINDS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH...AND NOW THERE IS FRESH SNOWPACK IN THE
SNOWBELT AREAS. TEMPS COULD EASILY FALL INTO THE TEENS IF THERE IS A
PERIOD OF CALM WINDS...WHICH COULD HAPPEN NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS.
ELSEWHERE...LOW TO MID 20S LOOK ABOUT RIGHT.
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ADVECT IN WARMER
AIR. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EVEN WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. THOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL GENERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S ON
SUNDAY...BUT ALSO CARRY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION WITH
THE MODERATING TEMPS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THEN THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. SIMILAR TO THE RECENT SYSTEM THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND SWEEP THROUGH BY FRIDAY EVENING...USHERING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. LIGHT PRECIP WILL DIMINISH BY MID-
AFTERNOON...WHILE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB. CLEARING WILL OCCUR
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
END MVFR CONDITIONS AT RHI. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT...GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
BECOME A GUSTY AT TIMES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015
A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KTS ARE STILL OCCURRING...BUT
APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IS TOO LOW TO
CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING. WILL DOWNGRADE THE WARNING INTO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE LATE. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS
AND BUILDING WAVES.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......MPC
MARINE.........MPC