Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/12/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
247 PM MST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR GLOBE WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND LASTING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NV CONTINUES TO MIGRATE STEADILY EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN
AZ...WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED ACROSS THE CO PLATEAU.
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN AZ...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER BACKBUILDING AND CLIPPING SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDINESS IS APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...A REFLECTION OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WIND FIELDS ALONG
THE OUTER CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. MIXING THROUGH ABOUT 6K FT IS
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AREAS WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 40S IN THE PHOENIX AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SOMEWHAT WARMER ACROSS THE GLOBE AREA FOR TONIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE WILL BE SPOTS AROUND TOWN THAT RADIATE MORE
EFFICIENTLY THAN OTHERS AND A FEW HOURS OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY TO ADDRESS THESE IMPACTS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EVEN THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL
START TO RECOVER AND WE`LL START TO SEE WARMING ALOFT FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT WARMING
ALOFT WILL MOSTLY OFFSET THESE FACTORS.
A MOSTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC WEATHER REGIME SETS UP FOR LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW ADVERTISED FOR THIS
WEEKEND SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OR FURTHER WEST OFF THE
BAJA COAST. NO MATTER THE POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW...ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS THAN A THIRD OF
AN INCH. THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DO SHOW THIS LOW MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS AND ACTUALLY DOES BRING SOME WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INTO ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. IT IS DOUBTFUL THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE ABLE TO BRING UP ANY SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE
PACIFIC...BUT WE CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME INCREASING MOISTURE
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA WHICH WILL
LIKELY JUST LEAD TO SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES
STARTING THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TYPICAL NORMALS.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT...BUT BOTH THE
GFS AND EUROPEAN HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SORT OF A PACIFIC
WAVE AFFECTING THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS 00Z
RUN IS LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT DEEPENS IT AND
CLOSES IT OFF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR NEXT TUESDAY. FOR NOW WE
PREFER THE WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTHERLY TRACKS OF GFS AND EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLES AND EUROPEAN DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. IT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW 10 KTS AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 8PM. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY BY EARLY WED MORNING...THEN BECOME LIGHT
WESTERLY (6 KTS OR LESS) BY WED AFTERNOON. CURRENT SCT-BKN CIGS IN
THE 6-8K FT RANGE TO BECOME FEW-CLR BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT BOTH KIPL AND KBLH TO DIMINISH AFTER
8PM...THEN BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY (8 KTS OR LESS) BY
LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AT
KIPL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED...WITH KBLH SEEING GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON WED AFTERNOON...AS SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP A BIT DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THIS
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE
FOR MID NOVEMBER. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL BE COMMON ALONG WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS FORECAST.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
933 AM MST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER STARTS TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SWEEPS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BRINGING LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND LASTING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A 70 MILE WIDE AREA OF
BROKEN STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO POPPED UP THIS
MORNING WITHIN THIS CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES WRFS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX AS THE DIFFUSE FRONT PUSHES
EASTWARD. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE IMPERIAL VALLEY...A REFLECTION OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
WIND FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CA. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...MAIN
IMPACTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AN INCREASE IN WIND AND RELATIVELY COOL
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A RATHER COMPACT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.
THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE SEEN IN THE INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE COLD
FRONT IS NOW MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE PHOENIX AREA BY AROUND NOON TODAY. THOUGH WINDS ARE
ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY CA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY PICK UP ELSEWHERE LATER THIS MORNING
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH. COLD AIR
ADVECTION RAPIDLY OVERTAKES THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 5-7C WHICH SHOULD KEEP OUR HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TODAY ACROSS THE DESERTS.
THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY PUSHES EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO
TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWER DESERT LOWS IN THE 40S AND A
FEW COLDER SPOTS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE GLOBE/MIAMI AREA
WILL SEE AT LEAST A MODEST CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES...BUT
THERE IS SOME DOUBT ON HOW QUICKLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WHICH
MAY DELAY RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR ZONE 24 FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EVEN
THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL START TO RECOVER AND WE`LL START TO SEE WARMING
ALOFT FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT WARMING ALOFT WILL MOSTLY OFFSET THESE FACTORS.
A MOSTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC WEATHER REGIME SETS UP FOR LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW ADVERTISED FOR THIS
WEEKEND SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OR FURTHER WEST OFF THE
BAJA COAST. NO MATTER THE POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW...ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS THAN A THIRD OF
AN INCH. THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DO SHOW THIS LOW MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS AND ACTUALLY DOES BRING SOME WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INTO ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. IT IS DOUBTFUL THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE ABLE TO BRING UP ANY SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE
PACIFIC...BUT WE CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME INCREASING MOISTURE
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA WHICH WILL
LIKELY JUST LEAD TO SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES
STARTING THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TYPICAL NORMALS.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT...BUT BOTH THE
GFS AND EUROPEAN HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SORT OF A PACIFIC
WAVE AFFECTING THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS 00Z
RUN IS LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT DEEPENS IT AND
CLOSES IT OFF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR NEXT TUESDAY. FOR NOW WE
PREFER THE WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTHERLY TRACKS OF GFS AND EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLES AND EUROPEAN DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. IT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FORECAST ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO BETWEEN 15Z-
17Z WITH WESTERLY WINDS TAKING HOLD SHORTLY THEREAFTER. GUSTS AROUND
20-25KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING
OFF QUICKLY AFTER 01Z. NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT CIGS AROUND
5-6KFT COINCIDENT WITH THE LATE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01Z AND WILL TAKE ON TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THIS
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE
FOR MID NOVEMBER. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL BE COMMON ALONG WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS FORECAST.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TODAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL TODAY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT TODAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND BRING CLEAR DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. LOCALLY
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A
COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SKIES WERE PARTLY CLODUY IN MOST AREAS AT MID-MORNING...WITH
GREATEST CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
REMAINED...MAINLY OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY. COASTAL WATERS LOOK MOSTLY
PRECIP FREE NOW...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONVECTION NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION...BUT THAT IS MODELED TO STAY WELL TO OUR WEST AND
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS ALL PRECIP OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA ENDING AROUND NOON. WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-7
DEG C TONIGHT OVER MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 3-5 DEG C OVER THE HIGH
DESERTS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...IT WILL
BE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH SOME LOWER TO MID 30S IN COLDEST INLAND
VALLEYS AND SOME UPPER 20S IN THE HIGH DESERTS. THE HIGH DESERTS
HAVE ALREADY HAD FROST ADVISORY TEMPS (28-33) TWICE...SO NO FROST
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED...BUT WILL ANALYZE TEMPS FOR TONIGHT TO MAKE
SURE THEY WILL NOT GET LOWER THAN THE UPPER 20S.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND BRING CLEAR DRY AIR TO THE
REGION...LIKELY LASTING UNTIL SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND...THOUGH PRIMARILY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AND THE DRY AIR
WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK IN WIND-
SHELTERED LOCATIONS. PRESSURE GRADIENT ANALYSIS...TEMPERATURE
PROFILES/GRADIENTS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE POTENTIAL INDICATE THE BEST
CHANCES OF STRONGER WIND WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE REGION...WITH
SURFACE GUST POTENTIAL AROUND 50-55 MPH NEAR/BELOW CAJON PASS AND IN
THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS WED AND THU. DAILY
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 80+ IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS AND PARTS OF
ORANGE COUNTY FRI/SAT BEFORE THE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN SUNDAY.
THERE IS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST
COAST SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...WITH MODELS
INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL STAY TO THE
NORTH...BUT SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING
A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP TO PARTS OF SO-CAL AROUND MONDAY. WILL
ANALYZE FURTHER...INCLUDING CHECKING THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHEN IT
ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION...
101700Z...SCT-BKN030-040 THROUGH 20Z WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY
OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY. AFT 20Z...SCT030-040. SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH 23Z. GUSTY
WEST WINDS 10-20 KT AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES TODAY. STRONGER WINDS
OVER MOUNTAIN CRESTS AND ALONG ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES WILL PRODUCE
STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ROTORS POSSIBLE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
AT 900 AM...THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY REPORTED WEST WINDS AT
19 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT. CHECK THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DETAILS...LAXMWWSGX.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING FOR INLAND AREAS WITH
POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. FOR INLAND VALLEYS...INLAND ORANGE COUNTY
AND THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...DAY-TIME HUMIDITY WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS WEDNESDAY...SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN TEENS ON SATURDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST GUSTS OF 30-
40 MPH WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAVORED PASSES...CANYONS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE WINDS
WILL PEAK LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN GUSTS OF 30-
40 MPH COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD. WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR APPLE AND
LUCERNE VALLEYS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE
FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1005 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STRONG STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN PASSING OVERHEAD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT HAS NOT HAD MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS AS THEY HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALREADY WITH THE DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
BY DAWN THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS WILL TRACK NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE...WITH A
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. A DRY
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. MOISTURE STILL APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE
FRONT FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE...WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL GUIDANCE NOT INDICATING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
W TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...THOUGH LAKE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED. COOL AND DRY ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PROG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER STILL WELL TO OUR WEST
EARLY SATURDAY. DUE TO EXPECTATION OF SOME WIND...QUESTION
INVOLVING FROST POTENTIAL LATE FRI NT/EARLY SAT...BUT DID MENTION
PATCHY FROST NORTH EARLY SAT MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION BY SAT NT AND SUN...WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...THOUGH STILL
SOME POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE AND
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGEST FROST...AND FREEZING TEMPS...POSSIBLE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT
LATEST RUNS OF BOTH ARE SLOWING DOWN THE APPROACH AS THEY ARE NOW
CUTTING OFF THE UPPER LOW AND WELL TO OUR WEST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT PLUME OF BEST MOISTURE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
WED...OR MAYBE EVEN THU. ACCEPTED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WHICH PROVIDES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE MON NT INTO
TUE...INCREASING TO CHANCE BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SOME MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE SHORT TERM MODELS REGARDING POSSIBILITY
OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SREF SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
OPTIMISTIC SHOWING MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS...AND THE HRRR GOING
TOWARDS IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW BUT WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISING MVFR
VSBYS ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY. SOME SCTD CLOUDS AOB 1
KFT ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT WITH NAM BUFKIT SHOWING A NOCTURNAL LLJ
AROUND 30 KTS AT 1 KFT...NOT ANTICIPATING LOW CIGS BUT AT THIS TIME
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY
AROUND 15Z THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE
FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA
EASTMAN...WATEREE RIVER AT WATEREE DAM...AND THE PEE DEE RIVER AT
CHERAW. A FLOOD WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG LATER IN THE WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
903 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Ongoing weather event across Central Illinois this evening.
Although the storms had relatively little in the way of lightning
and thunder, the rapidly deepening and strengthening low is
resulting in very strong surface winds. The rain is just enough to
help bring down even stronger winds at the mid levels. Wind
reports of estimated 60 mph gusts, as well as a report at Peoria
airport of 71 mph. As for the remainder of the evening, the rain
is coming to an end quickly as the showers move eastward.
However, the gradient winds will continue, and potentially
increase through the overnight somewhat. Continued gusts in the
40-45 mph range can be expected until sunrise tomorrow. Minor
updates to the forecast currently, but no large scale changes
overall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Powerful November storm system is taking aim on central Illinois
this evening, with 20z/2pm surface chart showing a 991mb low over
southwest Iowa. Strong to severe thunderstorms are currently
developing in the vicinity of the low and arcing southward along a
trailing cold front into north-central Missouri. Further
south...another area of showers/storms is developing in association
with the warm conveyor belt across the Ozarks. As the low continues
to deepen and lift toward western Wisconsin, the storms currently
across northern Missouri will shift eastward into west-central
Illinois early this evening. Based on radar timing tools and
consistent forecasts from both the HRRR and 4km NAM, it appears
convection will arrive in the Illinois River Valley between 6pm and
8pm, along the I-55 corridor between 7pm and 9pm, and further east
to the I-57 corridor between 9pm and midnight. Damaging wind gusts
will be the primary severe weather threat across the western KILX
CWA early this evening, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out due to impressive amounts of low-level wind shear. As the
storms race E/NE, the severe wind threat will decrease east of the I-
55 corridor by mid to late evening as the storms tend to weaken with
time. Once the storms pass, very strong gradient winds will develop
as low pressure continues to deepen over Wisconsin. Westerly winds
will increase to between 20 and 30 mph overnight, with gusts
reaching the 40 to 50 mph range. As a result, a Wind Advisory will
remain in effect for all locations along/north of I-70.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
The intense storm system (987 mb) is expected to be over central
thru northeast Wisconsin by Thursday morning with a very tight
pressure gradient across a large portion of the region. Forecast
soundings suggest the potential for 25 to 35 mph sustained winds
with gusts around 50 mph at times into the afternoon hours before we
see a very slow diminishing trend towards evening. With the surface
low pulling away from the area rather quickly, the wrap-around
moisture is expected to lift northeast as well and shift into far
northern IL or southern Wisconsin by evening. A secondary upper
trof will swing southeast across the lower Great Lakes Thursday
night and Friday with gusty winds expected with that system as well,
although not as strong as what we will see tonight and Thursday.
The weather should quiet down for Friday night through the weekend
as high pressure settles across the area. We should start out on
the cool side early in the weekend but as the high shifts off to
our east on Sunday, southerly winds will bring in milder air for
Sunday afternoon. However, it doesn`t look like the nice weather
will hold very long over our area as an active southwest flow
pattern continues into next week with the first of two significant
systems that will affect the Midwest. Showers chances increase
somewhat late Sunday night into Monday, and especially Monday night
into Tuesday as the upper wave tracks across the region.
Unfortunately, the upper wave and associated surface low will not be
a quick mover and will have ample opportunity to bring up some
significant rainfall to our area early next week with POPs in the
forecast through Thursday. The pattern will hold thru the rest of the
week with the latest ECMWF indicating another strong upper level system
poised over the southwest U.S. ready to spread precip back into our area
either late next week or during the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Line of convection continues to track northeastward out of
Missouri into west-central Illinois early this evening. Southern
end of line is not very organized and is showing signs of
weakening, which matches the forecasts from both the HRRR and 4km
NAM quite well. Given current radar trends, think the line of
strong to severe storms may only impact KPIA and perhaps KBMI.
Timing tools still support 01z to 03z at KPIA and 02z to 04z for
KBMI. Further southeast, showers with a few embedded thunderstorms
have lifted northward from southern Illinois and will impact KDEC
and KCMI over the next few hours, but will remain sub-severe. Once
a cold front that is currently across eastern Missouri sweeps
through, strong westerly winds will develop later this evening
through Thursday. Forecast soundings support gusts as high as 35
to 40kt at times through that time period before winds slowly
begin to subside somewhat toward sunset Thursday.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
612 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Powerful November storm system is taking aim on central Illinois
this evening, with 20z/2pm surface chart showing a 991mb low over
southwest Iowa. Strong to severe thunderstorms are currently
developing in the vicinity of the low and arcing southward along a
trailing cold front into north-central Missouri. Further
south...another area of showers/storms is developing in association
with the warm conveyor belt across the Ozarks. As the low continues
to deepen and lift toward western Wisconsin, the storms currently
across northern Missouri will shift eastward into west-central
Illinois early this evening. Based on radar timing tools and
consistent forecasts from both the HRRR and 4km NAM, it appears
convection will arrive in the Illinois River Valley between 6pm and
8pm, along the I-55 corridor between 7pm and 9pm, and further east
to the I-57 corridor between 9pm and midnight. Damaging wind gusts
will be the primary severe weather threat across the western KILX
CWA early this evening, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out due to impressive amounts of low-level wind shear. As the
storms race E/NE, the severe wind threat will decrease east of the I-
55 corridor by mid to late evening as the storms tend to weaken with
time. Once the storms pass, very strong gradient winds will develop
as low pressure continues to deepen over Wisconsin. Westerly winds
will increase to between 20 and 30 mph overnight, with gusts
reaching the 40 to 50 mph range. As a result, a Wind Advisory will
remain in effect for all locations along/north of I-70.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
The intense storm system (987 mb) is expected to be over central
thru northeast Wisconsin by Thursday morning with a very tight
pressure gradient across a large portion of the region. Forecast
soundings suggest the potential for 25 to 35 mph sustained winds
with gusts around 50 mph at times into the afternoon hours before we
see a very slow diminishing trend towards evening. With the surface
low pulling away from the area rather quickly, the wrap-around
moisture is expected to lift northeast as well and shift into far
northern IL or southern Wisconsin by evening. A secondary upper
trof will swing southeast across the lower Great Lakes Thursday
night and Friday with gusty winds expected with that system as well,
although not as strong as what we will see tonight and Thursday.
The weather should quiet down for Friday night through the weekend
as high pressure settles across the area. We should start out on
the cool side early in the weekend but as the high shifts off to
our east on Sunday, southerly winds will bring in milder air for
Sunday afternoon. However, it doesn`t look like the nice weather
will hold very long over our area as an active southwest flow
pattern continues into next week with the first of two significant
systems that will affect the Midwest. Showers chances increase
somewhat late Sunday night into Monday, and especially Monday night
into Tuesday as the upper wave tracks across the region.
Unfortunately, the upper wave and associated surface low will not be
a quick mover and will have ample opportunity to bring up some
significant rainfall to our area early next week with POPs in the
forecast through Thursday. The pattern will hold thru the rest of the
week with the latest ECMWF indicating another strong upper level system
poised over the southwest U.S. ready to spread precip back into our area
either late next week or during the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Line of convection continues to track northeastward out of
Missouri into west-central Illinois early this evening. Southern
end of line is not very organized and is showing signs of
weakening, which matches the forecasts from both the HRRR and 4km
NAM quite well. Given current radar trends, think the line of
strong to severe storms may only impact KPIA and perhaps KBMI.
Timing tools still support 01z to 03z at KPIA and 02z to 04z for
KBMI. Further southeast, showers with a few embedded thunderstorms
have lifted northward from southern Illinois and will impact KDEC
and KCMI over the next few hours, but will remain sub-severe. Once
a cold front that is currently across eastern Missouri sweeps
through, strong westerly winds will develop later this evening
through Thursday. Forecast soundings support gusts as high as 35
to 40kt at times through that time period before winds slowly
begin to subside somewhat toward sunset Thursday.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
606 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
600 PM CST
CONTINUE TO ANALYZE THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS EVE...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE SEVERE GUSTS. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN COLLABORATED AND WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY FOR THE ILLINOIS CWA. ALSO ARE MONITORING FOR A PERIOD OF
HIGHER END NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS TO POSSIBLY NEAR 60 MPH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS.
LATEST HAND ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SURFACE LOW IS DOWN TO 988 MB
AND CONTINUING TO DEEPEN IN CENTRAL IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT
CURLING EAST AND THEN SOUTHWARD NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. JUST
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THIS FRONT...STRENGTHENING MOIST AND WARM
ADVECTION IS STARTING TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST IL. THESE ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO NORTH
CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF THE MAIN AXIS...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER THE 21Z DVN
SOUNDING AND LATEST ANALYSIS COULD SUPPORT THUNDER WITH ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY. IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THESE WOULD BE SEVERE BUT THE
ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELD IS SO STRONG THAT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.
THE WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING IN THE NARROW PLUME OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG AND HELPING TO SUPPORT A
FOCUSED LINE OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED NEAR TO SEVERE GUSTS AS
WELL AS TRANSIENT AREAS OF ROTATION. DYNAMICS AND UPPER SUPPORT
FOR LIFT ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THE ONGOING STORMS...WITH
STRENGTHENING 850MB WINDS OF 55-65 KT ON REGIONAL VAD PROFILERS.
THESE WINDS WILL BE THE CONCERN WITH DOWNDRAFTS IN ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS PROBABLY BEING AT LEAST NEAR SEVERE. THUS FAR STORMS HAVE
MORPHED INTO MORE OF A NON-DISCRETE MODE WHICH MAY AID IN THAT AT
LEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE LINE-ECHO WAVE PATTERN
SIGNATURES AND OCCASIONAL TORNADO THREATS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE
TO AT LEAST NEAR THE INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AND MAYBE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. HIGH DYNAMIC / LOW
INSTABILITY EVENTS CAN OUTPERFORM ON THAT TORNADO THREAT...BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO CATCH UP TO THE
DRYLINE...AND THAT GRADUALLY IS HAPPENING ON OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES FURTHER
EAST OF I-39 TOWARD THE CHICAGO METRO.
ALSO...NEAR THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS ABOUT A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND
THE DRYLINE...THERE ARE INDICATIONS ON RAP AND NAM FORECAST
PROFILES THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS OR EVEN STORMS ON THIS. THE HRRR HAS TRENDED THIS ROUTE
TOO. IF SOME CELLS CAN DEVELOP IN THAT LOCATION...BASICALLY
BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM OR SO...CONCERNED ANY OF THOSE COULD
PRODUCE SEVERE GUSTS AS WELL.
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS UPSTREAM AND CONTINUED RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE DRY SLOT AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.
HIGH WIND PARAMETERS AND PRESSURE CHANGE MAGNITUDE SUPPORT
INCREASING FORECAST WIND GUSTS DURING THAT TIME...DESPITE THE
OVERNIGHT TIMING. WITH SUCH DEEP SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY THIS
TIME OF YEAR...TIME OF DAY/INSTABILITY MATTERS MUCH LESS.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
156 PM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY...
IMPRESSIVE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A CONSIDERABLE UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...NOT ONLY ELEVATED STORMS BUT NOW STARTING TO SEE SOME
POTENTIALLY SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL IN WESTERN MISSOURI.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS CRUISING ALONG NORTHEAST AND ENTERING INTO
SW IOWA. A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS WITH PLUME
OF 50S DEWPOINTS IN IOWA AND INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS NORTH
OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ARKANSAS...SEPARATING THE SEMI-MOIST
AIRMASS WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN THE ARKLATEX. RIGHT BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY IS A PACIFIC DRYLINE...THEN FARTHER BACK INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SEMI-MOIST DEWPOINT AXIS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
WITH THE LOW AS THE LOW CONTINUES STRENGTHENING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCALLY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AS THE
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH...PLACING THE
AREA IN A FAVORED REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL ASCENT. WHILE THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH THIS
EVENING...CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A FAST-MOVING LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS. THESE
STORMS APPEAR TO BE TIED TO THE DRYLINE AXIS THAT WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE PRIME TIME BEING MID TO LATE EVENING... THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD IN PLACE...LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE ALL
HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...THE HIGHEST CONCERN IS DAMAGING WINDS LARGELY TIED
TO THE SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT FOCUSED IN
IOWA/ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT -
PROGGED AT 200-400 J/KG MUCAPE - BUT SUFFICIENT GIVEN THE STRONG
SHEAR. THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND IN OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME MORE POTENT STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.
THE LOW WILL REACH ITS PEAK OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE
PUSHING TO GREEN BAY BY DAYBREAK...THEN NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SW AND REMAINING
QUITE GUSTY WITH POSSIBLY A SECONDARY MAXIMUM TO THE CONVECTIVE
INDUCED GUSTS TO THAT SEEN THIS EVENING. THERE LOOK TO BE A FEW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...THEN BACK BEHIND IT AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE
AREA. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND
THURSDAY WHICH WILL CAP MIXING A BIT...BUT STILL LOOKING AT
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
236 PM CST
EXTENDED FORECAST...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS...BUT MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
QUITE BREEZY AND COOL. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LIGHT
RAIN OR FLURRIES MIGHT DEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING
AS A STRONG VORTICITY LOBE SWINGS OVERHEAD IN THE NORTHERN JET
STREAM...THOUGH MID 30S SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
AIR AT LOW LEVELS WOULD BOTH APPEAR TO INHIBIT ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH THE NORTHERN AXIS OF THIS RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND SUNNY SATURDAY BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND THE HIGH REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG...SUGGESTING WINDS MAY NOT
RELAX QUITE AS MUCH AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED UNDER A DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK SOUTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO DRAW
IN WARMER AIR AGAIN. THE WARMUP OVER FRIDAY`S MID 40S HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND AT LEAST 15 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING WARMTH
FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS COMES INCREASING MOISTURE...AND MILD BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. THE DEGREE OF MID
NOVEMBER WARMTH THAT MIGHT BE ACHIEVED WITH THREE OR FOUR DAYS OF
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE MODERATED BY
THE ACCOMPANYING LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN. EVEN THE
WARMEST MODELS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S MONDAY AND LOWER 60S
TUESDAY. BY NEXT WEEK SEASONABLY NORMAL HIGHS DROP INTO THE 40S
WHILE RECORDS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S...SO THIS WILL BE JUST A BIT
WARMER THAN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON.
BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING...THE GFS BRINGS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ABOVE ONE INCH AND KEEPS THIS ELEVATED MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONE INCH VALUES WOULD BE OVER THE 90TH
PERCENTILE BASED ON THE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE AREA DURING THIS PORTION
OF THE MONTH. VALUES ON TUESDAY CLIMB FURTHER...TOWARD 1.2 OR 1.3
INCHES WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY BE APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE OR
RECORD HIGH VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FORECAST DEWPOINTS ALSO
ARE HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF FOLLOWS A
SIMILAR PATTERN THOUGH DETAILS CERTAINLY ARE DIFFERENT ENOUGH THAT
NOTHING CAN BE STATED WITH CONFIDENCE AT THIS RANGE OTHER THAN
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO THIS EVENING.
* VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS...UP AROUND 40 KT AT TIMES...LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
* STRONG LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS
AFTER 02 UTC THIS EVENING.
* LLWS CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
* LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT TO LOW END MVFR AND PSBL IFR.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
A VERY DYNAMIC AND STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE WEATHER
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA A IN
RESPONSE TO A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE LLWS THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
LATEST TIMING OF THIS LINE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY
IMPACTING THE EASTERN TERMINALS BY...02-03 UTC THIS EVENING...AND
AROUND 01 UTC AT KRFD. EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA.
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40-45 KT FOR A PERIOD LATE
TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ON THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT AT TIMES.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION...AND LLWS
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
* HIGH WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA.
* MEDIUM IN CIG HEIGHTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH WITH WIND FORECAST.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY...VFR/WX NIL. STRONG/GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...TO 30KT.
* SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR/WX NIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHERLY WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
359 PM CST
A CENTER OF VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS IOWA AND
THROUGH WISCONSIN TONIGHT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE
THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD ACROSS LAKE HURON INTO ONTARIO
THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL VEER WESTERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO STORM FORCE WITH THE
MORE DENSE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW. A PERIOD OF GALES WILL
FOLLOW THE STORM FORCE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN
WINDS RELAX FOR THE WEEKEND. STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM
THURSDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3
PM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779...9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1012 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING OUR WAY WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL...BUT DRY
WEATHER AND A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
VISIBILITIES ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING AT THIS HOUR AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS TREND. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY IN MENTION OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
THE REGION UNTIL ABOUT NOON TODAY...THEN CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST UPDATE CONSISTED OF
REMOVING THE LAST MENTION OF POPS FOR EARLY TODAY AS THIS PRECIP HAS
LONG SINCE EXITED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. NO OTHER MAJOR UPDATES WERE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN FOR HOURLY TRENDS. GRIDS AND ZFP
UPDATED AND ALREADY OUT. A PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
QUITE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR NEXT FEW DAYS AS A DEEPENING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HIGH WINDS.
MODELS MOVE A 130 KNOT 300 MB JET OUR WAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN AT 850 MB
MODELS INDICATE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND OUR WAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAPES WILL
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES PER KG...BUT STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN
AND PRODUCE HIGH WINDS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS A RESULT SPC HAS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...BEEFED UP SUPER BLEND MODEL WINDS A LITTLE
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WENT WITH
DEFINITE POPS THEN. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY.
WENT A LITTLE ABOVE MOS HIGHS FROM WEDNESDAY GIVEN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND
THAT CLOUDS WILL NOT THICKEN THAT MUCH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE...STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND MOST OTHER
PERIODS. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND
LOWS IN THE 30S THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD
WILL NECESSITATE REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWER CHANCES. BLENDED
INITIALIZATION HANDLED THINGS RELATIVELY WELL.
CONSENSUS TEMPS LOOKED FAIRLY REASONABLE THROUGHOUT AND ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS NECESSARY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 101500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
DENSE FOG PRODUCING LIFR CONDITIONS OR WORSE ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 90 MINUTES AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES.
HAVE TRENDED TAFS BACK TOWARD VFR AFTER 17Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
/DISCUSSION FOR THE 10/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 557 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
INITIAL IFR OR WORSE AT ALL SITES BUT LAF WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT HUF/BMG...WITH LOW
CEILINGS AT IND AND VFR CONDITIONS AT LAF. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
LAF MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG BUT LAMP AND HRRR PROGS DO NOT
SUPPORT IT AT THIS TIME. DENSE FOG IS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
HOWEVER. WILL INCLUDE A MIFG MENTION TO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY IN
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
927 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE AND A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING OUR WAY WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL...BUT DRY WEATHER
AND A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO END FROM THE WEST...BUT IT MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MEANWHILE
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WERE BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
INDIANA.
IN BETWEEN AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM NEAR VINCENNES AND WASHINGTON NORTH INTO SULLIVAN
COUNTY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES
WILL CAUSE THIS FOG TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES
WIDESPREAD LOW VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A
RESULT WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING FOR VIGO AND
CLAY COUNTIES SOUTH TO VINCENNES AND WASHINGTON. THIS AREA COULD BE EXPANDED
LATER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
QUITE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR NEXT FEW DAYS AS A DEEPENING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HIGH WINDS.
MODELS MOVE A 130 KNOT 300 MB JET OUR WAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN AT 850 MB
MODELS INDICATE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND OUR WAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAPES WILL
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES PER KG...BUT STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN
AND PRODUCE HIGH WINDS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS A RESULT SPC HAS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...BEEFED UP SUPER BLEND MODEL WINDS A LITTLE
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WENT WITH
DEFINITE POPS THEN. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY.
WENT A LITTLE ABOVE MOS HIGHS FROM WEDNESDAY GIVEN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND
THAT CLOUDS WILL NOT THICKEN THAT MUCH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE...STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND MOST OTHER
PERIODS. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND
LOWS IN THE 30S THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD
WILL NECESSITATE REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWER CHANCES. BLENDED
INITIALIZATION HANDLED THINGS RELATIVELY WELL.
CONSENSUS TEMPS LOOKED FAIRLY REASONABLE THROUGHOUT AND ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS NECESSARY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 101500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
DENSE FOG PRODUCING LIFR CONDITIONS OR WORSE ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 90 MINUTES AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES.
HAVE TRENDED TAFS BACK TOWARD VFR AFTER 17Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
/DISCUSSION FOR THE 10/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 557 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
INITIAL IFR OR WORSE AT ALL SITES BUT LAF WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT HUF/BMG...WITH LOW
CEILINGS AT IND AND VFR CONDITIONS AT LAF. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
LAF MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG BUT LAMP AND HRRR PROGS DO NOT
SUPPORT IT AT THIS TIME. DENSE FOG IS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
HOWEVER. WILL INCLUDE A MIFG MENTION TO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY IN
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ043>045-
051>053-060-061-067>069.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
557 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE AND A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING OUR WAY WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL...BUT DRY WEATHER
AND A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO END FROM THE WEST...BUT IT MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MEANWHILE
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WERE BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
INDIANA.
IN BETWEEN AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM NEAR VINCENNES AND WASHINGTON NORTH INTO SULLIVAN
COUNTY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES
WILL CAUSE THIS FOG TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES
WIDESPREAD LOW VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A
RESULT WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING FOR VIGO AND
CLAY COUNTIES SOUTH TO VINCENNES AND WASHINGTON. THIS AREA COULD BE EXPANDED
LATER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
QUITE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR NEXT FEW DAYS AS A DEEPENING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HIGH WINDS.
MODELS MOVE A 130 KNOT 300 MB JET OUR WAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN AT 850 MB
MODELS INDICATE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND OUR WAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAPES WILL
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES PER KG...BUT STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN
AND PRODUCE HIGH WINDS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS A RESULT SPC HAS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...BEEFED UP SUPER BLEND MODEL WINDS A LITTLE
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WENT WITH
DEFINITE POPS THEN. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY.
WENT A LITTLE ABOVE MOS HIGHS FROM WEDNESDAY GIVEN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND
THAT CLOUDS WILL NOT THICKEN THAT MUCH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE...STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND MOST OTHER
PERIODS. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND
LOWS IN THE 30S THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD
WILL NECESSITATE REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWER CHANCES. BLENDED
INITIALIZATION HANDLED THINGS RELATIVELY WELL.
CONSENSUS TEMPS LOOKED FAIRLY REASONABLE THROUGHOUT AND ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS NECESSARY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 10/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 557 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
INITIAL IFR OR WORSE AT ALL SITES BUT LAF WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT HUF/BMG...WITH LOW
CEILINGS AT IND AND VFR CONDITIONS AT LAF. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
LAF MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG BUT LAMP AND HRRR PROGS DO NOT
SUPPORT IT AT THIS TIME. DENSE FOG IS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
HOWEVER. WILL INCLUDE A MIFG MENTION TO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY IN
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ051-052-
060-061-067>069.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS THERE IS AN ENHANCED
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AFTER
THE STORMS END TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE STORM SYSTEM FROM A TOP DOWN APPROACH. STRONG H3 JET
WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION ACROSS OUR
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO LARGESCALE RISING MOTION ACROSS SOUTHERN IA
AND WESTERN ILL. THE H5 WAVE STILL IS FORECAST TO SWING NEGATIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WITH THE H3 FLOW WILL LEAD
TO VERY STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND RISING MOTION. AT H85...THE LLJ
TERMINUS ROTATES THROUGH THE CWA FROM 18Z TO 00Z ONLY INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. AGAIN THESE DYNAMICS ARE
PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES ACROSS OUR AREA. AS WITH PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A FORGONE CONCLUSION AS CAPE AND
TIMING OF DAY WILL COME INTO PLAY.
THE STRONG DYNAMICS HAVE LEAD TO MOISTURE RETURN THAT WAS WELL ABOVE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN THE SKY HAVE LEAD TO
HEATING AND ENOUGH CAPE TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITIES OF SEVERE OF
WEATHER. ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING VERY FAST AND COULD LEAD TO
LITTLE TIME TO RESPOND TO THEM. THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
WIND ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SFC LOW WILL LEAD TO STRONG GRADIENT WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. REPORTS OF DAMAGE FROM NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN THE KANSAS CITY AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE TOO LOW AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE SHAPE OF CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY NEED THE ADVISORY EXTENDED INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS CAN EVALUTE.
FORECAST FOCUS ON WINDY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A DRY
AND QUIET WEEKEND. ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INTENSE CYCLONE WILL BE OCCLUDING AS
IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED IN THE HIGH PLAINS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL END EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN OUR FAR NORTH AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS FARTHER AWAY. THIS WILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...ESPECIALLY COMBINED
WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL RATHER WINDY IN THE MORNING BUT
THE WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON...AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY OVER MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. COLD TEMPERATURES WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
THIS WEEKEND...DRY AND SEASONAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES AND ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE ROCKIES.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE CWA BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINS STILL TO BE DETERMINED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS SWEEPING ACROSS
THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE LINE WILL BE MVFR
CIGS AND VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF SUSTAINED 25 TO 35
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO OVER 40 KNOTS. THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONDS BECOMING VFR ON THURSDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-DES MOINES-
JACKSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1036 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING. AS WELL SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN TRACKING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT PRECIP SEEMS TO BE EVAPORATION BEFORE IT
REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...HI RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM
WOULD SUGGEST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP BY 1 AM AND HAVE TIMED THIS
WITH POPS. THE OTHER CONCERN HERE IS WITH THE WINDS. NEW MODEL
UPDATES WOULD SUGGEST DURING THE 09Z TO 15Z PERIOD...SOME STRONGER
THAN 30 MPH WINDS COULD REACH THE SURFACE. WITH 50 TO 55 KNOTS AT
850 HEADING INTO THE MORNING HOURS...SOME STRONGER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP THE SPS GOING FOR THIS AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR THE CURRENT TEMP AND DEW POINTS.
WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING...TEMPS
HAVE BEEN DROPPING OFF RATHER SLOWLY. FOR NOW THE POPS SEEM ON
TIME BUT WITH THE 00Z NAM AND HI RES PRODUCTS ISSUED LATER...WILL
GET A BETTER IDEA ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHILE AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS ALSO MAKING FOR A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY. HERE IN THE EAST...THOUGH...WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE
SUBDUED...BUT STILL TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S NORTH AND TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH. A BAND OF
HIGH CLOUDS DID DEVELOP AND HELPED SLOW THE TEMP RISE IN THE
NORTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHARP CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEY ALL DEPICT THIS LOW PUSHING
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
BAND OF WEAKENING ENERGY DOWN INTO KENTUCKY. BY THURSDAY
EVENING...THE MAIN LOW WILL BE PASSING INTO ONTARIO WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A SERIES OF MINOR ENERGY PACKETS THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILD START TO THE EVENING...BUT
ALSO A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WILL MIX THOSE COLDER TEMPERATURES OUT
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST PLACES. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO
THE LIKELY SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT THESE TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA
WITH THE FALLING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET AND AN OUTRUNNING OF
MID LEVEL SUPPORT. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT THE WORST OF
IT TO BE GENERALLY JUST SOME GUSTY SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY ALONG AND FOLLOWING THIS FRONT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.
WILL HIT THE WINDS HARD IN THE HWO AND ALSO ISSUE AN SPS
HIGHLIGHTING THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
FOR THURSDAY. ONE LAST WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED...POST FRONTAL...
BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA MOVES IN LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
VALLEY DROP OFF AND TO A LESSER AND OPPOSITE EXTENT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO ALL
GUIDANCE IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TONIGHT AND GENERALLY JUST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE EXITING TO THE EAST FOR THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...REINFORCING THIS TROUGH.
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH VERY DRY LOW/MID
LEVELS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS DYING OFF...AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING. WITH
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVERHEAD...EXPECT COLD MORNINGS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S. SOME
READINGS INTO THE LOWER 20S WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND...BUT STILL EXPECTING
SOME DECENT RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
A SHARP TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE REMAINS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THIS FEATURE...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE FEATURE IS STILL WELL OFF
SHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS. FOR THIS REASON...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH ON
WHEN RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION. IT APPEARS THE
BEST STAB AT RAIN CHANCES MOVING BACK IN WOULD BE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL PLAY A PART IN HOW MUCH
DOWNSLOPING WE SEE...WHICH MAY DELAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE EVENING. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO
AROUND 3 KFT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATER TONIGHT. HAVE PUT MVFR CIGS AT EVERY TAF SITE LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MORE HEAVIER RAIN ARRIVES. DURATION WILL BE LIMITED SO WILL
IMPROVE CONDITIONS BY 18Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS FOR THIS EVENT
WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH EARLY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WE ST BY 18Z AS THE FRONT PASSES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
652 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR THE CURRENT TEMP AND DEW POINTS.
WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING...TEMPS
HAVE BEEN DROPPING OFF RATHER SLOWLY. FOR NOW THE POPS SEEM ON
TIME BUT WITH THE 00Z NAM AND HI RES PRODUCTS ISSUED LATER...WILL
GET A BETTER IDEA ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHILE AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS ALSO MAKING FOR A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY. HERE IN THE EAST...THOUGH...WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE
SUBDUED...BUT STILL TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S NORTH AND TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH. A BAND OF
HIGH CLOUDS DID DEVELOP AND HELPED SLOW THE TEMP RISE IN THE
NORTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHARP CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEY ALL DEPICT THIS LOW PUSHING
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
BAND OF WEAKENING ENERGY DOWN INTO KENTUCKY. BY THURSDAY
EVENING...THE MAIN LOW WILL BE PASSING INTO ONTARIO WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A SERIES OF MINOR ENERGY PACKETS THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILD START TO THE EVENING...BUT
ALSO A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WILL MIX THOSE COLDER TEMPERATURES OUT
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST PLACES. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO
THE LIKELY SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT THESE TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA
WITH THE FALLING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET AND AN OUTRUNNING OF
MID LEVEL SUPPORT. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT THE WORST OF
IT TO BE GENERALLY JUST SOME GUSTY SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY ALONG AND FOLLOWING THIS FRONT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.
WILL HIT THE WINDS HARD IN THE HWO AND ALSO ISSUE AN SPS
HIGHLIGHTING THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
FOR THURSDAY. ONE LAST WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED...POST FRONTAL...
BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA MOVES IN LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
VALLEY DROP OFF AND TO A LESSER AND OPPOSITE EXTENT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO ALL
GUIDANCE IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TONIGHT AND GENERALLY JUST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE EXITING TO THE EAST FOR THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...REINFORCING THIS TROUGH.
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH VERY DRY LOW/MID
LEVELS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS DYING OFF...AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING. WITH
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVERHEAD...EXPECT COLD MORNINGS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S. SOME
READINGS INTO THE LOWER 20S WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND...BUT STILL EXPECTING
SOME DECENT RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
A SHARP TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE REMAINS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THIS FEATURE...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE FEATURE IS STILL WELL OFF
SHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS. FOR THIS REASON...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH ON
WHEN RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION. IT APPEARS THE
BEST STAB AT RAIN CHANCES MOVING BACK IN WOULD BE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL PLAY A PART IN HOW MUCH
DOWNSLOPING WE SEE...WHICH MAY DELAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE EVENING. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO
AROUND 3 KFT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATER TONIGHT. HAVE PUT MVFR CIGS AT EVERY TAF SITE LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MORE HEAVIER RAIN ARRIVES. DURATION WILL BE LIMITED SO WILL
IMPROVE CONDITIONS BY 18Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS FOR THIS EVENT
WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH EARLY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WE ST BY 18Z AS THE FRONT PASSES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1246 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
HOURLY POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOST PREVALENT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH AND A SFC WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK UP THE APPALACHIANS. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY/
OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY AID IN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERING FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. OTHER HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON
RECENT OBSERVATION TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH LIES ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE HAS
INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM NEARS THE REGION. MEASURABLE RAIN HAS RECENTLY BEEN NOTED
AT JKL AND LOZ. SOME OF THE ASOS SITES ARE ALSO REPORTING EITHER
DRIZZLE OR SOME LIGHT RAIN. THIS LIGHT RAIN SHOULD INCREASE A BIT
FURTHER THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON TUESDAY AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ON OFF INTO THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY.
LOW LEVEL FLOW THOUGH WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WESTERLY OR SOMEWHAT
UPSLOPE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON TUESDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE APPALACHIANS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...SO SOME DRIZZLE OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE
LOWER LEVEL SATURATE FURTHER...STRATUS BUILD DOWN WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG AS WELL AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO HOURLY POPS
WHILE REMAINING GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
AFTERNOON SURFACE CHART INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF
SHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BROUGHT DECENT SOAKING RAIN THE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEARER THE VA BORDER TODAY...HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING AND
DRIER AIR SEEM TO WAIN THE PRODUCTION IN MOST AREAS OF EASTERN KY.
THAT SAID THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS AIDED IN THIS PROCESS IS
PROGGED TO BE ACROSS MO THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO EJECT
ENE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE AS ENERGY TRAVERSES EAST AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MULTIPLE MODELS AND GUIDANCE PRODUCTS WANT TO DEVELOP A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND MOVE IT DUE NORTH OVERNIGHT...THERE IS ALSO A
DECENT 850MB JET THAT KICKS IN TO HELP IN THE PROCESS. THAT SAID
DID BRIEFLY ENHANCE CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BEFORE THE BETTER LIFT CREEPS NORTH
OF THE REGION AND PRECIP WAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS RELATIVELY WEAK AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS QUIET STRETCH GOING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT SHOULD BRING A COOL NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE...AND LEFT OVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE START OF THE
EXTENDED AND WITH THE MAIN FEATURE IMPACTING THE FORECAST THIS GO
AROUND. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MODEL SYNCHRONICITY STARTS TO FLAG LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GEM AND GFS BUT EXHIBITING SIMILAR
STRENGTH. THE CORE OF THE ENERGY FROM THE ECMWF ALSO STAYS FURTHER
SOUTH AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME...HEIGHT FALLS AND A BAND OF ENERGY WILL
SWEEP INTO KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE TROUGH PASSES
TO THE NORTH. THE MODEL SPREAD THEN INCREASES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...THOUGH...LOW HEIGHTS AND FAST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN QUEBEC. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT FOLLOWS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...JUST WEAK ENERGY PACKETS WILL BE NOTED. HEIGHTS SHOULD
BE ON THE REBOUND FOR THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT WX THIS PERIOD...HAVE YIELDED TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 SOLUTION FOR FORECAST DETAILS AND FAVORED A BLEND
THEREAFTER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SEASONABLY WARM DAY AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER A DRY START TO
THE DAY...MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE CWA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS. BY LATE EVENING...DEWPOINTS
WILL BE UP INTO THE LOW 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED ALONG BY A STRONG MID LEVEL
JET STEAK WITH STORMS LIKELY FORMING WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE
AIR MASS CLASH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
QUITE LIMITED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT
NIGHT...BUT A SQUALL LINE IS A DECENT BET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ITS MOMENTUM FROM THE WEST MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAKE IT INTO THE CWA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY. EITHER
WAY...GUSTY SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE REMNANTS
AND FROPA LATE THAT NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
RAPIDLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON HELPING TO
CLEAR OUT LINGERING SHOWERS AND ALSO THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A CHILLY PERIOD OF QUIET WX WILL FOLLOW
INTO AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TRUDGES ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG WITH MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH PULLS EAST AND WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE
SOUTH.
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHTS. AGAIN TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING TO BETTER REPRESENT HOURLY MOVEMENT OF THE
HIGHEST VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
IFR...LIFR...AND POSSIBLY VLIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. JKL WILL BE THE
MOSTLY LIKELY SITE TO EXPERIENCE ANY VLIFR CIGS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD AFFECT
JKL...SYM...AND SJS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WELL. THE TAF
SITES WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE VARYING DEGREES OF FOG THROUGH OUT THE
NIGHT...WITH JKL AND ITS RIDGETOP LOCATION LIKELY SEEING THE WORST
OF THE FOG. THE OTHER FOUR AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS
IN THE FOG FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA
BY 17Z TODAY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING A
BIT AS THE SUN COMES UP WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 13 OR 14Z AT ALL
TAF SITES...AND MVFR CIGS FROM 15Z ONWARD. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
OVC OR BKN UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...DURING WHICH TIME THE
CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1228 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 931 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015
The forecast is pretty much on track as low clouds and patchy light
rain and drizzle continue to move through the region. Timing the
back edge of the clouds eastward overnight from satellite loops, it
looks like we could get some clearing in the far west towards dawn.
If this does happen, fog could form quickly. So, have added some
patchy fog west of I-65 for a few hours around sunrise. No other
changes.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 317 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015
Upper low is currently centered over Missouri, with a weak surface
low moving up through eastern KY. Deformation band of light to
moderate rain has set up nicely across the western CWA. and will
slowly pivot along a mostly N to S axis through the remainder of the
afternoon evening. This occurs as the upper low moves into Illinois.
Best rainfall coverage occurs along and west of I-65 where we will
have the highest rain chances depicted. Current HRRR and NAM runs
handle this well. East of I-65, precipitation has split up into a
separate area associated with isentropic lift and is mostly east of
the CWA. So, expecting our east to be relatively dry with only a
chance for measurable through the afternoon and early evening. Temps
should continue to hover about where they are.
A sharp PV anomaly rotates around the parent upper low into our
region overnight which will help to enhance the remaining low level
moisture enough to yield some isolated to scattered measurable pops
and/or patchy drizzle. Temps should mostly drop into the low and mid
40s.
Expect most of the CWA to be dry by the morning commute, although do
have to hold onto mention of some very slight chances of a
measurable shower or patchy drizzle across the bluegrass through mid
morning.
Othwerise, Tuesday will be dry with clearing skies from west to east
and temperatures reaching into the low 60s in most spots. Expect
upper 50s in the east where clouds hang on the longest.
Tuesday night brings mostly clear skies with pressure gradient
startint to establish a steady SSE flow. Expect to only see a very
subtle response in low level moisture and most valleys will
decouple. So, looking for upper 30s in the cool spots, with low 40s
in areas that are able to stay slightly mixed.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 317 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Wed Night...
Wednesday - Wednesday Night...
Wednesday will be dry as surface high pressure and progressive upper
ridge axis hold over our region. A steady south wind and mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies will allow temps to rise into the upper
60s and low 70s in some spots during the afternoon.
Upstream, a potent upper system (characterized by 150 kt upper level
jet, and 100-110 kt 500 mb jet) will eject out of the southern
Plains and into the mid Mississippi River Valley by Wednesday
evening. 500 mb trough will take on a negative tilt during this
transition. Associated surface low will deepen as it moves from
western KS to western IA. Strong upper divergence will overspread
the mid Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys through the afternoon and
into the evening hours, resulting in a strong low level jet (50-60
kts) response. At the surface, SSE winds will increase in response
to the pressure falls. Expecting to see 15 to 20 mph, occasionally
gusting around 25-30 mph Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.
Wind fields are undoubtedly impressive, however question continues
to remain with regard to instability. Surface based instability axis
continues to look meager to non-existent as only a very narrow
corridor of 55-60 dew points will build ahead of the cold front.
Despite the lack of instability, still think pockets of gusty to
potentially damaging winds will be possible within strongly forced
line via a couple of bowing segments, particularly across our
western CWA. Organized line of storms should overall weaken as they
progress east through the overnight.
Also, am a bit concerned about a secondary line of showers/storms
right along the frontal boundary, which seems to coincide with the
best instability axis. Low level theta surfaces become vertical
during this time which could allow 30 to 40 mph gradient wind gusts.
Gust potential could then be enhanced by any shower/storm. It is
entirely possible that this could be the worst part of the event,
with the pre-frontal trough acitivity too elevated for wind damage
and mainly just gusty stratiform rain. Either way, the main threat
Wednesday evening will be gusty winds, with a few pockets of
damaging winds likely. Rainfall totals really don`t look all that
impressive given the speed that the system moves through. A brief
spin-up tornado threat is non-zero, but at this point seems pretty
unlikely given the unimpressive dew points and the lack of at least
a little bit of surface based instability.
Timing of between 8 PM to 3 AM EST still looks pretty good for the
bulk of the event. Western areas can expect the earlier part of the
time frame, with the east getting in on the action later.
Thursday - Monday...
Cold front will be east of our CWA by dawn on Thursday. We`ll remain
under the influence of an occasionally reinforced upper trough
Saturday, however lack of moisture will keep things dry. Overall
temperatures will be cool during this time with high mostly in the
50s. A few spots may not reach 50 on Friday and Saturday afternoons.
Lows Thursday night will drop into the 30s, with Friday night lows
down around 30.
Upper ridge and surface high pressure try to hold over the area
through Monday, which will bring continued dry and moderating temps.
Highs Sunday should be back in the upper 50s, and likely touching 60
in many spots by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1225 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2015
Flight conditions will linger in the IFR/LIFR cat through the
overnight hours and into tomorrow morning as an upper low slowly
moves NE through the region. Flight conditions will improve to VFR
by this afternoon/evening. Light northerly winds currently will
become westerly by around sunrise with wind speeds less than 7 kts
throughout the TAF period.
SDF...currently sits at IFR/MVFR and suspect some of the LIFR cigs
to the south may eventually occur at SDF by sunrise especially as
the inversion strengthens during the pre-dawn hours behind the upper
low. By mid morning conditions should improve to MVFR and then VFR
by early afternoon.
LEX...currently sits at MVFR but expect cigs to deteriorate over the
next 1-3 hours to IFR and then possibly to LIFR between 9-12Z. MVFR
cigs won`t be reached until early afternoon with VFR expected by
this evening.
BWG...currently is hovering between IFR/LIFR. Expect cigs will tend
to side more on the LIFR side as the night wears on. There is a
clearing line slowly making progress toward BWG early this morning
and suspect it might make it to the terminal by around 12Z. This
could result in a scattering of cigs and quick development of fog
right around sunrise. Right now, sided the TAF closer to cig
restrictions but will need to monitor eastward progress of the
clearing and adjust vis/cigs as needed. BWG should return to VFR by
around Noon.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........13
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1239 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. A
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER
S-CENTRAL/SE VA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE EARLIER SHOWERS OVER
THE PIEDMONT NOW LIFTING N INTO NRN VA. THE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. LATEST HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS NAM12 305- 310K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE SHOWERS. EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD CLIP THE MD ERN SHORE LATER TODAY AS THE
SFC LOW LOCATES OVER THE DELMARVA AND THE OHIO VALLEY LOW LIFT TO
THE NE.
PVS DSCN:
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SE NC COAST WITH TS KATE
CHURNING WELL OFF THE FL COAST. HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC...BUT REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE OH VALLEY HAS RESULTED IN SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION AND A GOOD TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STREAM.
THE RESULT IS ONGOING OVERRUNNING PRECIP THIS MORNING OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR PLACES THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP
OVER THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE...WITH DRYING OVER THE SW
COUNTIES. WHERE THE RAIN HAS STOPPED...DRIZZLE/FOG HAS DEVELOPED.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NC WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE
LOCAL AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN. POPS
REMAIN IN THE HIGH END LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE.
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WITH HEIGHT FALLS
DEEPENING THE SFC LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO NRN VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...CLIPPING
FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA FROM ABOUT 15-21Z. THIS COULD
TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE MINIMAL. MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY...EVEN WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID (POSSIBLY UPPER)
70S IN NE NC. EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF STREAM. SKY
REMAINS OVERCAST TODAY...BUT A FEW BREAKS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
PIEDMONT LATE TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID 70S
SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST WITH CLEARING SKIES SW TO NE THRU TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDS RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND A NW BREEZE. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
THE RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A POTENT
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS NEWD INTO THE THE GREAT LAKES. AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO EXTEND SSW THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WRN
HALF OF THE AREA. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND...TO
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S CLOSER TO AND ALONG THE COAST.
THE GREAT LAKES LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD
FRONT QUICKLY PASSING FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST GEFS/SREF
INDICATE MOISTURE ANOMALIES DECREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA LARGELY DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BEST DYNAMICS ALSO LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS HAVE
BEEN MAINTAINED THU AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS ALONG
AND NORTH OF A FARMVILLE TO RICHMOND AND WALLOPS ISLAND LINE. SKY
AVERAGES PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH ADDED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE FRONT. A
SW BREEZE OF 10-15 MPH WILL PUSH THICKNESSES HIGHER...BUT CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
DRY/NICE AUTUMN WEATHER EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION AFTER COLD FRONT
PUSHES OUT TO SEA THU NGT. A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE
CNTRL PLAINS EWD TWD THE REGION THU NGT THRU SAT NGT...THEN BLDS
OVR THE MID ATLC STATES AND SLIDES OFFSHR SUN THRU MON. HI TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 50S SAT...IN
THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S SUN...AND IN THE LWR TO MID 60S MON. LO
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S FRI MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S
TO MID 40S SAT MORNG...IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S SUN MORNG...AND
IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S MON MORNG.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS BETWEEN LIFR/IFR/MVFR DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
CIGS AND VIS. THE COASTAL LOW HAS LIFTED JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AS OF 10/1730Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE DURING THE
REST OF TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS BEING PULLED
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEHIND THE SOON-TO-DEPART LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LAST BATCH OF SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE COAST AFTER 10/1900-2000Z THIS AFTN...WITH PATCHY
-SHRA/DZ POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. DESPITE A
GENERAL END TO SHOWERS...ANY IFR CIGS PRESENT WILL DROP TO LIFR
HEIGHTS BTWN 200-400FT AGL. CIGS WILL THEN START TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 11/0000Z AS THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER AND SCOURS
OUT THE LOW CIGS. A COLD AIR SURGE DOWN CHES BAY AND THE ATLANTIC
COAST IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE AREA
OF CLEARING...THEREFORE NW-N WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25KT
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DUE TO THE NLY SURGE...KORF
AND KSBY WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS UNTIL ROUGHLY MID-MORNING
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AT THESE TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS
DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THU EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BREEZY WINDS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...WITH
DETERIORATINGCONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN/WIND/LOWERING CIGS DURING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FOR MOUTH OF CHES BAY EXTENDED THROUGH MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO WAVES LINGERING AROUND 4FT A FEW HOURS AFTER
WINDS DIMINISH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS...ELECTED TO FOLLOW THE GFS/SREF WRT THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CRNTLY ACROSS SERN VA. ALSO EXTENDED THE SCA
FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY GIVEN WAVES AT FIRST LANDING STILL AT 4
FT. RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS MAKES THIS A RATHER PROBLEMATIC
MARINE FORECAST EVEN IN THE FIRST 12 HR PERIOD. GIVEN THE NUMEROUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG THE TROF
TODAY...TRIED TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND
ONLY ADDRESSED THE SCA HEADLINES WITH THE ACTUAL LOW AND NOT THE
CAA SURGE PROGGED BEHIND IT TONITE INTO WED.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST TODAY GIVEN THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW ALONG THE TROF. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST ONSHORE WIND GUSTS NOW MAKING THEIR WAY UP
THE CHES BAY/ERN SHORE ERLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING FRTHR SOUTH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS (I.E NEARLY GALE FORCE
GUSTS AT MOUTH OF THE BAY A FEW HRS AGO...NOW BARELY SCA LEVELS).
EXPECT WINDS BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AS THE LOW
CENTER TRACKS INVOF THE CHES BAY. WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES
GOING ON THE COASTAL WATERS INTO WED AS SEAS STAY AOA 5 FT AND
MOUTH OF THE BAY THROUGH 4 PM FOR 3-4 FT WAVES.
ANOTHER CAA SURGE PROGGED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO WED WITH
WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN INTO MINIMAL SCA RANGE. THIS SURGE
APPEARS MORE NW THAN A N DIRECTION. WINDS / SEAS DROP BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1009 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. A
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER
S-CENTRAL/SE VA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE EARLIER SHOWERS OVER
THE PIEDMONT NOW LIFTING N INTO NRN VA. THE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. LATEST HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS NAM12 305- 310K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE SHOWERS. EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD CLIP THE MD ERN SHORE LATER TODAY AS THE
SFC LOW LOCATES OVER THE DELMARVA AND THE OHIO VALLEY LOW LIFT TO
THE NE.
PVS DSCN:
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SE NC COAST WITH TS KATE
CHURNING WELL OFF THE FL COAST. HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC...BUT REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE OH VALLEY HAS RESULTED IN SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION AND A GOOD TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STREAM.
THE RESULT IS ONGOING OVERRUNNING PRECIP THIS MORNING OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR PLACES THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP
OVER THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE...WITH DRYING OVER THE SW
COUNTIES. WHERE THE RAIN HAS STOPPED...DRIZZLE/FOG HAS DEVELOPED.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NC WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE
LOCAL AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN. POPS
REMAIN IN THE HIGH END LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE.
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WITH HEIGHT FALLS
DEEPENING THE SFC LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO NRN VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...CLIPPING
FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA FROM ABOUT 15-21Z. THIS COULD
TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE MINIMAL. MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY...EVEN WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID (POSSIBLY UPPER)
70S IN NE NC. EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF STREAM. SKY
REMAINS OVERCAST TODAY...BUT A FEW BREAKS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
PIEDMONT LATE TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID 70S
SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST WITH CLEARING SKIES SW TO NE THRU TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDS RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND A NW BREEZE. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
THE RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A POTENT
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS NEWD INTO THE THE GREAT LAKES. AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO EXTEND SSW THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WRN
HALF OF THE AREA. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND...TO
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S CLOSER TO AND ALONG THE COAST.
THE GREAT LAKES LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD
FRONT QUICKLY PASSING FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST GEFS/SREF
INDICATE MOISTURE ANOMALIES DECREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA LARGELY DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BEST DYNAMICS ALSO LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS HAVE
BEEN MAINTAINED THU AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS ALONG
AND NORTH OF A FARMVILLE TO RICHMOND AND WALLOPS ISLAND LINE. SKY
AVERAGES PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH ADDED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE FRONT. A
SW BREEZE OF 10-15 MPH WILL PUSH THICKNESSES HIGHER...BUT CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
DRY/NICE AUTUMN WEATHER EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION AFTER COLD FRONT
PUSHES OUT TO SEA THU NGT. A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE
CNTRL PLAINS EWD TWD THE REGION THU NGT THRU SAT NGT...THEN BLDS
OVR THE MID ATLC STATES AND SLIDES OFFSHR SUN THRU MON. HI TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 50S SAT...IN
THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S SUN...AND IN THE LWR TO MID 60S MON. LO
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S FRI MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S
TO MID 40S SAT MORNG...IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S SUN MORNG...AND
IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S MON MORNG.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS FCST PERIOD AS LOW PRS MOVES NE
ALONG A TROF LOCATED ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WIDESPREAD CIGS
BLO 1K FT ALONG WITH VARYING VSBYS IN PERIODIC RAIN THRU 18Z.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAVE CIGS AOB 1K FT ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS
IN BR BTWN 18Z-00Z. A SLOW CLEARING PROCESS IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO ADDNTL FOG DVLPMNT ESPCLLY IN AREAS
AWAY FROM THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER RETURN WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FOR MOUTH OF CHES BAY EXTENDED THROUGH MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO WAVES LINGERING AROUND 4FT A FEW HOURS AFTER
WINDS DIMINISH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS...ELECTED TO FOLLOW THE GFS/SREF WRT THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CRNTLY ACROSS SERN VA. ALSO EXTENDED THE SCA
FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY GIVEN WAVES AT FIRST LANDING STILL AT 4
FT. RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS MAKES THIS A RATHER PROBLEMATIC
MARINE FORECAST EVEN IN THE FIRST 12 HR PERIOD. GIVEN THE NUMEROUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG THE TROF
TODAY...TRIED TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND
ONLY ADDRESSED THE SCA HEADLINES WITH THE ACTUAL LOW AND NOT THE
CAA SURGE PROGGED BEHIND IT TONITE INTO WED.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST TODAY GIVEN THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW ALONG THE TROF. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST ONSHORE WIND GUSTS NOW MAKING THEIR WAY UP
THE CHES BAY/ERN SHORE ERLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING FRTHR SOUTH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS (I.E NEARLY GALE FORCE
GUSTS AT MOUTH OF THE BAY A FEW HRS AGO...NOW BARELY SCA LEVELS).
EXPECT WINDS BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AS THE LOW
CENTER TRACKS INVOF THE CHES BAY. WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES
GOING ON THE COASTAL WATERS INTO WED AS SEAS STAY AOA 5 FT AND
MOUTH OF THE BAY THROUGH 4 PM FOR 3-4 FT WAVES.
ANOTHER CAA SURGE PROGGED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO WED WITH
WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN INTO MINIMAL SCA RANGE. THIS SURGE
APPEARS MORE NW THAN A N DIRECTION. WINDS / SEAS DROP BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...BMD/MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1002 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. A
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS LINE OF SHOWERS (WITH AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OVER APPOMATTOX COUNTY) STRETCHING FROM THE
ERN VA PIEDMONT SWD INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER
THE OH VALLEY. LATEST HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS NAM12 305-
301K ISENTROPIC SURFACES HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS LINE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE MORNING
HOURS. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WAS TO STICK WITH LIKELY POPS
THRU NOON...BUT SPEED UP PUSHING THE SHOWERS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT
ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS MD ERN SHORE LATE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW
LOCATES OVER THE DELMARVA.
PVS DSCN:
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SE NC COAST WITH TS KATE
CHURNING WELL OFF THE FL COAST. HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC...BUT REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE OH VALLEY HAS RESULTED IN SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION AND A GOOD TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STREAM.
THE RESULT IS ONGOING OVERRUNNING PRECIP THIS MORNING OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR PLACES THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP
OVER THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE...WITH DRYING OVER THE SW
COUNTIES. WHERE THE RAIN HAS STOPPED...DRIZZLE/FOG HAS DEVELOPED.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NC WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE
LOCAL AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN. POPS
REMAIN IN THE HIGH END LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE.
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WITH HEIGHT FALLS
DEEPENING THE SFC LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO NRN VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...CLIPPING
FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA FROM ABOUT 15-21Z. THIS COULD
TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE MINIMAL. MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY...EVEN WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID (POSSIBLY UPPER)
70S IN NE NC. EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF STREAM. SKY
REMAINS OVERCAST TODAY...BUT A FEW BREAKS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
PIEDMONT LATE TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID 70S
SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST WITH CLEARING SKIES SW TO NE THRU TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDS RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND A NW BREEZE. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
THE RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A POTENT
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS NEWD INTO THE THE GREAT LAKES. AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO EXTEND SSW THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WRN
HALF OF THE AREA. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND...TO
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S CLOSER TO AND ALONG THE COAST.
THE GREAT LAKES LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD
FRONT QUICKLY PASSING FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST GEFS/SREF
INDICATE MOISTURE ANOMALIES DECREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA LARGELY DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BEST DYNAMICS ALSO LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS HAVE
BEEN MAINTAINED THU AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS ALONG
AND NORTH OF A FARMVILLE TO RICHMOND AND WALLOPS ISLAND LINE. SKY
AVERAGES PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH ADDED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE FRONT. A
SW BREEZE OF 10-15 MPH WILL PUSH THICKNESSES HIGHER...BUT CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
DRY/NICE AUTUMN WEATHER EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION AFTER COLD FRONT
PUSHES OUT TO SEA THU NGT. A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE
CNTRL PLAINS EWD TWD THE REGION THU NGT THRU SAT NGT...THEN BLDS
OVR THE MID ATLC STATES AND SLIDES OFFSHR SUN THRU MON. HI TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 50S SAT...IN
THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S SUN...AND IN THE LWR TO MID 60S MON. LO
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S FRI MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S
TO MID 40S SAT MORNG...IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S SUN MORNG...AND
IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S MON MORNG.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS FCST PERIOD AS LOW PRS MOVES NE
ALONG A TROF LOCATED ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WIDESPREAD CIGS
BLO 1K FT ALONG WITH VARYING VSBYS IN PERIODIC RAIN THRU 18Z.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAVE CIGS AOB 1K FT ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS
IN BR BTWN 18Z-00Z. A SLOW CLEARING PROCESS IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO ADDNTL FOG DVLPMNT ESPCLLY IN AREAS
AWAY FROM THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER RETURN WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FOR MOUTH OF CHES BAY EXTENDED THROUGH MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO WAVES LINGERING AROUND 4FT A FEW HOURS AFTER
WINDS DIMINISH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS...ELECTED TO FOLLOW THE GFS/SREF WRT THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CRNTLY ACROSS SERN VA. ALSO EXTENDED THE SCA
FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY GIVEN WAVES AT FIRST LANDING STILL AT 4
FT. RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS MAKES THIS A RATHER PROBLEMATIC
MARINE FORECAST EVEN IN THE FIRST 12 HR PERIOD. GIVEN THE NUMEROUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG THE TROF
TODAY...TRIED TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND
ONLY ADDRESSED THE SCA HEADLINES WITH THE ACTUAL LOW AND NOT THE
CAA SURGE PROGGED BEHIND IT TONITE INTO WED.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST TODAY GIVEN THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW ALONG THE TROF. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST ONSHORE WIND GUSTS NOW MAKING THEIR WAY UP
THE CHES BAY/ERN SHORE ERLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING FRTHR SOUTH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS (I.E NEARLY GALE FORCE
GUSTS AT MOUTH OF THE BAY A FEW HRS AGO...NOW BARELY SCA LEVELS).
EXPECT WINDS BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AS THE LOW
CENTER TRACKS INVOF THE CHES BAY. WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES
GOING ON THE COASTAL WATERS INTO WED AS SEAS STAY AOA 5 FT AND
MOUTH OF THE BAY THROUGH 4 PM FOR 3-4 FT WAVES.
ANOTHER CAA SURGE PROGGED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO WED WITH
WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN INTO MINIMAL SCA RANGE. THIS SURGE
APPEARS MORE NW THAN A N DIRECTION. WINDS / SEAS DROP BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...BMD/MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
650 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. A
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS LINE OF SHOWERS (WITH AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OVER APPOMATTOX COUNTY) STRETCHING FROM THE
ERN VA PIEDMONT SWD INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER
THE OH VALLEY. LATEST HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS NAM12 305-
301K ISENTROPIC SURFACES HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS LINE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE MORNING
HOURS. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WAS TO STICK WITH LIKELY POPS
THRU NOON...BUT SPEED UP PUSHING THE SHOWERS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT
ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS MD ERN SHORE LATE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW
LOCATES OVER THE DELMARVA.
PVS DSCN:
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SE NC COAST WITH TS KATE
CHURNING WELL OFF THE FL COAST. HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC...BUT REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE OH VALLEY HAS RESULTED IN SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION AND A GOOD TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STREAM.
THE RESULT IS ONGOING OVERRUNNING PRECIP THIS MORNING OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR PLACES THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP
OVER THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE...WITH DRYING OVER THE SW
COUNTIES. WHERE THE RAIN HAS STOPPED...DRIZZLE/FOG HAS DEVELOPED.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NC WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE
LOCAL AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN. POPS
REMAIN IN THE HIGH END LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE.
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WITH HEIGHT FALLS
DEEPENING THE SFC LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO NRN VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...CLIPPING
FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA FROM ABOUT 15-21Z. THIS COULD
TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE MINIMAL. MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY...EVEN WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID (POSSIBLY UPPER)
70S IN NE NC. EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF STREAM. SKY
REMAINS OVERCAST TODAY...BUT A FEW BREAKS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
PIEDMONT LATE TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID 70S
SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST WITH CLEARING SKIES SW TO NE THRU TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDS RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND A NW BREEZE. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
THE RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A POTENT
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS NEWD INTO THE THE GREAT LAKES. AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO EXTEND SSW THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WRN
HALF OF THE AREA. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND...TO
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S CLOSER TO AND ALONG THE COAST.
THE GREAT LAKES LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD
FRONT QUICKLY PASSING FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST GEFS/SREF
INDICATE MOISTURE ANOMALIES DECREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA LARGELY DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BEST DYNAMICS ALSO LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS HAVE
BEEN MAINTAINED THURS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A FARMVILLE TO RICHMOND AND WALLOPS ISLAND LINE. SKY
AVERAGES PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH ADDED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE FRONT. A
SW BREEZE OF 10-15 MPH WILL PUSH THICKNESSES HIGHER...BUT CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
DRY/NICE AUTUMN WEATHER EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION AFTER COLD FRONT
PUSHES OUT TO SEA THU NGT. A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE
CNTRL PLAINS EWRD TWD THE REGION THU NGT THRU SAT NGT...THEN BLDS
OVR THE MID ATLC STATES AND SLIDES OFFSHR SUN THRU MON. HI TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 50S SAT...IN
THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S SUN...AND IN THE LWR TO MID 60S MON. LO
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S FRI MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S
TO MID 40S SAT MORNG...IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S SUN MORNG...AND
IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S MON MORNG.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS FCST PERIOD AS LOW PRS MOVES NE
ALONG A TROF LOCATED ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WIDSPRD CIGS BLO
1K FT ALONG WITH VARYING VSBYS IN PERIODIC RAIN THRU 18Z. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL LEAVE CIGS AOB 1K FT ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN BR
BTWN 18Z-00Z. A SLOW CLEARING PROCESS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
THIS COULD LEAD TO ADDNTL FOG DVLPMNT ESPCLLY IN AREAS AWAY FROM
THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER RETURN WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS...ELECTED TO FOLLOW THE GFS/SREF WRT THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CRNTLY ACROSS SERN VA. ALSO EXTENDED THE SCA
FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY GIVEN WAVES AT FIRT LANDING STILL AT 4 FT.
RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS MAKES THIS A RATHER PROBLEMATIC MARINE
FORECAST EVEN IN THE FIRST 12 HR PERIOD. GIVEN THE NUMEROUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS AS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG THE TROF TODAY...I TRIED
TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND ONLY ADDRESSED THE
SCA HEADLINES WITH THE ACTUAL LOW AND NOT THE CAA SURGE PROGGED
BEHIND IT TONITE INTO WED.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST TODAY GIVEN THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW ALONG THE TROF. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST ONSHORE WIND GUSTS NOW MAKING THEIR WAY UP
THE CHES BAY/ERN SHORE ERLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING FRTHR SOUTH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS (I.E NEARLY GALE FORCE
GUSTS AT MOUTH OF THE BAY A FEW HRS AGO...NOW BARELY SCA LEVELS).
EXPECT WINDS BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AS THE LOW
CENTER TRACKS IVOF THE CHES BAY. WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES GOING
ON THE COASTAL WATERS INTO WED AS SEAS STAY AOA 5 FT AND MOUTH OF
THE BAY THROUGH 4 PM FOR 3-4 FT WAVES.
ANOTHER CAA SURGE PROGGED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO WED WITH
WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN INTO MINIMAL SCA RANGE. THIS SURGE
APPEARS MORE NW THAN A N DIRECTION. WINDS / SEAS DROP BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
918 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE...
AS OF THE 02Z SFC ANALYSIS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM /986 MB/ WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THAT
STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS INTO THE STRAITS REGION BY 18Z THURS. A
50-70KT LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY FEEDING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INTO THE CONVECTION ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN RAPIDLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS INDIANA
ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE DRIVEN INTO SE MI TONIGHT AND WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN
QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM. WHILE THIS REGION OF
CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO LOWER MI...A
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI IN THE
09Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. THIS ALONG WITH THE GOOD MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AND AMOUNT OF THUNDER UPSTREAM WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER LATE TONIGHT.
AS FOR THE WIND HEADLINES...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE WELL ELEVATED
AND HAVE A DEEP NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER TO CONTEND WITH TO
INHIBIT STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SFC PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SEVERAL HI RES SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND WRF
ARW/WRF NMM SUGGEST AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SFC COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT /PASSING THROUGH 11-15Z/. A
RAPID REDUCTION IN NEAR SFC STABILITY/STEEPENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT MIXING THE STRONGER WINDS
DOWN WITH THESE SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN THURS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 633 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET
OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. THEY WILL HOWEVER INCREASE STEADILY DURING THE
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE
ARE SOME CONCERNS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS AT THE
2K FT LEVEL INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CONDITIONS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AS SFC WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE INCREASING GRADIENT. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND 13Z AND
WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEEDS. A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 45
KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN GUSTY /OVER 35 KNOTS WITH
BRIEF BURSTS OVER 45 KNOTS/ THROUGH THE DAY WITH A FURTHER INCREASE
IN THE WINDS EXPECTED LATE THURS AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND
BOOSTS THE MIXED LAYER.
FOR DTW...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE OF A 13Z FROPA CAUSING A RAPID
VEERING OF THE WINDS FROM 160 TO 230 DEG...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF TIME OF WIND GUSTS OVER 45 KNOTS. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO WIND DIRECTION HOVERING AROUND 230 TO 240 DEG
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OTHER THAN THE BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE
WINDS AROUND 13Z...THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LOOK TO OCCUR LATER
THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 413 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
SHORT TERM... LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
A PLEASANT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
THE LATEST DATA INDICATES THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD PRECEDING THE BIG WIND EVENT
THAT WILL GET UNDERWAY DURING THURSDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY EVENING. INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE
OF HIGHER END WIND GUSTS SUPPORTS UPGRADE TO WIND ADVISORY/WIND
WARNING FOR THURSDAY IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE FIRST SIGN OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL OCCUR AS GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
RAMPS UP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND EVOLVES INTO
A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS. LOW TO MID LEVEL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A
SHARP MOISTURE AXIS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO RAPIDLY
INCREASING AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
FORCE A STRONG SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION OVER SE MICHIGAN IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER THAT WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS WITH BANDS OF GREATER CONCENTRATION WITHIN.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME WHILE 850 MB LI DROPS TO ABOUT -1C BY
09Z/4AM WHICH SUPPORTS ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ADDED
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SPC OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL THUNDER. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED STABLE LAYER UP TO ABOUT 2500 FEET ABOVE
WHICH THE STRONG WIND FIELD WILL BE CONFINED. GRADIENT WIND WILL
INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TOWARD SUNRISE. CATEGORICAL POPS ALSO REMAIN ON TARGET BUT WITH NO
CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS TOTALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER
0.5 INCH DUE TO THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN THROUGH SUNRISE
THURSDAY.
FOR THE WIND EVENT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY AT 995 MB IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN BY NEARLY 20 MB IN 24 HOURS TO ABOUT 985 MB WHILE
REACHING THE STRAITS/TIP OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY NOON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A POWERFUL COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION THAT WILL SURGE
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THURSDAY MORNING TO BEGIN THE HIGH
WIND EVENT. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN FOR A PROLONGED EVENT WITH MORE THAN
ONE PEAK OF ADVISORY/WARNING GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE. THE FIRST
WINDOW WILL BE DURING THE MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE/SHOWER ENHANCEMENT. THE
SECOND WINDOW WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND INTENSIFIED
WESTERLY GRADIENT WIND. THE LATEST DATA SUPPORTS THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST WIND...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-69 INITIALLY.
THE NAM IS NOW ONBOARD WITH MULTIPLE BINS OF 50+ KNOT WESTERLY FLOW
IN THE POST FRONT MIXED LAYER OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS ADDS
CONFIDENCE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW 60 MPH SURFACE WIND GUSTS...
AND MULTIPLE HOURS OF UPPER 50 MPH GUSTS...OVER SOUTH SECTIONS OF
THE REGION. THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE POSED BY THIS
SCENARIO WARRANTS THE WARNING UPGRADE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL
HOURS OF GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH IN THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB
WHERE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.
MODEL TIMING ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS SOLID FROM ABOUT 11Z/6AM
TO 15Z/10 AM. THERE IS ALSO AGREEMENT ON SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT RAISES SOME CONCERN THAT
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DIRECTING STRONGER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE
ON THE INTERFACE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DIRECTLY BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT. A MODEST ISALLOBARIC PUNCH OF ONLY 2-3 MB/3HRS AND WEAK LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OF LIMITED SUPPORT FOR GUSTS FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION AND
PRESSURE RISES THAT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SEPARATE PEAK IN GUST
POTENTIAL DURING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE
NAM IS MORE BULLISH ON BOTH THE DYNAMIC FORCING WITH UP TO 6 MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE AND A DEEPER MIXED LAYER WITH STRONGER MEAN WIND. THIS
WAS THE PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR EXTENDING THE WIND HEADLINE INTO THE
EVENING AFTER SUNSET...AND ALSO SUGGESTS SOME SORT OF WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINE EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM...
SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE QUICKLY ENTERING MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/PV OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STORM...WITH CONSOLIDATED COLD POOL/500 MB LOW TRACKING THROUGH
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PER 12Z EURO...500 MB TEMPS OF -32 TO -33 C...WITH
-13 C AT 700 MB. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEPTHS IN EXCESS
OF 10 KFT...AND FULLY EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THE INSTABILITY
AND LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCEMENT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -3 C TO -6
C RANGE (SEE COLDER REGIONAL GEM). AS SUCH...WOULD EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WITH ANY HEAVIER ACTIVITY...AS WET
BULBING EFFECTS SHOULD QUICKLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CRASH FROM THE HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S. IN ADDITION...RIGHT NOW EXPECTING WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH IN THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH THE INVERTED V IN THE LOWEST 2000 KFT COULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. EXCELLENT POST WAVE
SUBSIDENCE LOOKS TO BE OCCURRING RIGHT AROUND 00Z SATURDAY...WITH
EXTREME DRYING OCCURRING AT 700 MB. CONFIDENCE IN SCOURING OUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AT 850-925 MB IS NOT HIGH...AND HAVE
TRENDED SKY COVER TO JUST PARTLY CLOUDY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THROUGH MID WEEK.
MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY RAMPING UP THROUGH
TONIGHT...REACHING 25 TO 35 KNOTS BY 12Z THURSDAY...AS VERY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THEN
TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW. THIS LOW WILL DRIVE
A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST GALES FOLLOWING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. BRIEF STORM FORCE WINDS APPEAR LIKELY FOR LAKE ST
CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE WITHIN THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
PUNCH...AND HAVE UPGRADED TO STORM WARNING. WITH HIGHER END
SOUTHWEST GALES/LOW END STORMS DEVELOPING OVER LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER
WILL BECOME AN ISSUE FOR THE WESTERN BASIN...AND A LOW WATER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AS THE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 4.5 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SAGINAW
BAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND 18 INCHES BELOW CHART DATUM...AND LOW WATER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE AS WELL.
A SECOND SYSTEM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PRIMARY STORM ON FRIDAY WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END GALES FOR FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MARINE WATERS...AS MUCH COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...GENERATING INSTABILITY SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS...AND
ENHANCING THE THERMAL TROUGHING OVER LAKE HURON. GALE WARNINGS WHERE
EXTENDED FOR SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTH HALF.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ063.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ363-
441>443-462>464.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR LHZ421-422.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-422.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ361-
362.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LEZ444.
STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
408 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES IN REPONSE TO A TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. AS A
RESULT...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER MILD NOV DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
DESPITE FAIRLY THICK CI SPREADING OVERHEAD...TEMPS HAVE STILL RISEN
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD...A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE REACHED 60F.
TONIGHT...LINGERING DRY AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH
THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER LIGHT SW WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FAVORED THE
LOWER END OF AVBL GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE BIAS CORRECTED
REGIONAL GEM. EXPECT TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE SCNTRL
AND E TO FALL TO THE MID 20S. DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
OVER THE W AND NCNTRL WILL ONLY FALL TO THE UPPER 30S/LWR 40S. LIGHT
SW FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN ADVECTING HIGHER DWPTS INTO THE CHILLY
INTERIOR WILL LEAD TO FOG AND MAYBE SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE
ERN FCST AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
ON WED...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE CURRENT WRN CONUS TROF WHICH WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE PLAINS. ENERGY SWINGING THRU BASE OF THE TROF
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT 12HR HEIGHT FALLS...REACHING 230-250M AT
500MB BY 00Z THU OVER SRN IA/NRN MO. IN RESPONSE...INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL LEAD TO MOISTURE SURGING N UP THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WED. PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1 INCH WILL REACH AT
LEAST CNTRL WI BY EVENING. A SLOW/STEADY INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME -RA SPREADING INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTN. WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT STILL OFF TO
THE SW OF UPPER MI THRU THE AFTN...THE MAIN PCPN EVENT WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL WED NIGHT. GIVEN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...
GENERALLY UTILIZED A CONSENSUS OF AVBL GUIDANCE FOR SPREADING SCHC
TO CHC POPS NE INTO ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE
AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONG LOW THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN DRAGGING A TRAILING TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF AFDS...THE STORM PERFORMS MUCH OF ITS STRENGTHENING
AS IT IS NEARING THE AREA AND THEN BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST UPPER MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. THIS WILL END UP LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THE
WINDS FOR OUR CWA AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THINK THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT (LEADING
TO THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION) WILL HELP KEEP THE WINDS IN CHECK.
THAT BEING SAID...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SOME GALES TO 35KTS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND GUSTS TO 20-30KTS OVER SOME OF THE
EASTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...THE WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WHERE THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ARE OCCURRING AND THERE IS
35-40KT LOW LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT THAT TO OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LIKELY PRODUCE GALES OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE FINAL SURGE OF STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH THAT DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
30-35KT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE HEIGHTENED WORDING IN THE HWO (ALTHOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER VALUES) AND ADD A MENTION OF STRONG WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOR PRECIPITATION...THE INITIAL SURGE ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIED TO THE BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK DRY
SLOT ALOFT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN CWA. BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK/MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION DURING
THE REST OF THE EVENT WILL BE TIED TO THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AIDED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C. THOSE FALLING TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WEST-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.P. TO LEAD TO A MARKED
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING OVER THE WESTERN U.P.. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TAKE A
LITTLE LONGER TO REACH THE EASTERN U.P....BUT SHOULD SEE IT TAKE OFF
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. ONCE IT TURNS OVER TO SNOW...THINK SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE (SNOW RATIOS AROUND 9 TO 1 WITH THE BEST FORCING
BELOW THE DGZ) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND DEFINITELY
THINK HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE SHIFTS. PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST 0.75IN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OUT WEST NEARING 1.5 INCHES.
ADD TO THAT AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.85 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OVER THE WEST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION AFTER A DRY FALL.
AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TRENDS TEMPERATURES BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE ENERGY IS SPLIT WELL TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO DON/T EXPECT TOO SIGNIFICANT
OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT FELT CHANCE POPS WERE REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING UNDER A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE PLAINS WHERE DEEPENING
LOW PRES WILL LIFT NE TO IA LATE WED AFTN. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK
TO NEAR THE STRAITS BY MID AFTN THU AND TO SRN QUEBEC BY FRI
MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP LATE WED AFTN AND WILL
PEAK LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING WHEN GALES ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER
DIMINISHING TO 20-30KT FOR THU AFTN/EVENING...WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE TO NW GALES FOR AT LEAST CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THU NIGHT/FRI IN THE WAKE OF A TROF PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW PRES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO 10-20KT OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ162-263-264-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
339 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES AND A TROF DIGGING INTO
THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS UPPER MI BUT WAA HIGH CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO
SPILL ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TROF.
TODAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WITH
CONTINUED SRLY FLOW TEMPS WILL AGAIN PUSH WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER
WITH FCST 925-900 MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY AND A FEW MORE
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT MAX READINGS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S READINGS
POSSIBLE FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50-55 RANGE OVER THE SE.
TONIGHT...UNDER LIGHT SW WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND LAYER PWATS OF
.25 INCH OR LESS EXPECT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
TO FALL TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE (MID 20S) FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP MINS A BIT
WARMER THERE...GENERALLY THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONG LOW THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN DRAGGING A TRAILING TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF AFDS...THE STORM PERFORMS MUCH OF ITS STRENGTHENING
AS IT IS NEARING THE AREA AND THEN BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST UPPER MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. THIS WILL END UP LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THE
WINDS FOR OUR CWA AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THINK THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT (LEADING
TO THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION) WILL HELP KEEP THE WINDS IN CHECK.
THAT BEING SAID...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SOME GALES TO 35KTS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND GUSTS TO 20-30KTS OVER SOME OF THE
EASTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...THE WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WHERE THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ARE OCCURRING AND THERE IS
35-40KT LOW LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT THAT TO OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LIKELY PRODUCE GALES OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE FINAL SURGE OF STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH THAT DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
30-35KT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE HEIGHTENED WORDING IN THE HWO (ALTHOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER VALUES) AND ADD A MENTION OF STRONG WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOR PRECIPITATION...THE INITIAL SURGE ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIED TO THE BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK DRY
SLOT ALOFT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN CWA. BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK/MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION DURING
THE REST OF THE EVENT WILL BE TIED TO THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AIDED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C. THOSE FALLING TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WEST-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.P. TO LEAD TO A MARKED
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING OVER THE WESTERN U.P.. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TAKE A
LITTLE LONGER TO REACH THE EASTERN U.P....BUT SHOULD SEE IT TAKE OFF
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. ONCE IT TURNS OVER TO SNOW...THINK SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE (SNOW RATIOS AROUND 9 TO 1 WITH THE BEST FORCING
BELOW THE DGZ) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND DEFINITELY
THINK HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE SHIFTS. PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST 0.75IN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OUT WEST NEARING 1.5 INCHES.
ADD TO THAT AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.85 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OVER THE WEST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION AFTER A DRY FALL.
AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TRENDS TEMPERATURES BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE ENERGY IS SPLIT WELL TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO DON/T EXPECT TOO SIGNIFICANT
OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT FELT CHANCE POPS WERE REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
SRLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE
WITH E TO NE GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...NW GALES ARE EXPECTED LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND
BACK TO THE SW AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WRN LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ162-263-264-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1236 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES AND A TROF DIGGING INTO
THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS UPPER MI BUT WAA HIGH CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO
SPILL ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TROF.
TODAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WITH
CONTINUED SRLY FLOW TEMPS WILL AGAIN PUSH WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER
WITH FCST 925-900 MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY AND A FEW MORE
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT MAX READINGS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S READINGS
POSSIBLE FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50-55 RANGE OVER THE SE.
TONIGHT...UNDER LIGHT SW WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND LAYER PWATS OF
.25 INCH OR LESS EXPECT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
TO FALL TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE (MID 20S) FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP MINS A BIT
WARMER THERE...GENERALLY THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
FOCUS REMAINS ON WED-FRI NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME
PERIOD. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WED WHILE BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED. BY 12Z
THU...THE LOW WILL BE NEAR MENOMINEE WITH THE SFC LOW AT 982-985MB.
THE LOW MOVES TO NRN LOWER MI BY 18Z THU THEN TO WRN QUEBEC BY 06Z
FRI WHILE FILLING SOME. A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME
RELATIVELY MINOR MODEL TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
BACK TO A STRONGER SOLUTION FOR THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH ALSO RESULTS
IN A COLDER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN 24
HOURS AGO. A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AT 12Z SAT...BUT HAVE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT POINT SO WILL LET CONSENSUS GUIDANCE POPULATE
FARTHER OUT.
WINDS...SHOULD SEE THREE PRIMARY PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS. FIRST
WILL BE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS CYCLONIC WINDS ARC ACROSS THE
AREA...PRODUCING SE WINDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NW WINDS
OVER THE WRN HALF...GUSTING TO AROUND 35KTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES IN
BOTH CASES. THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL SEE AROUND 30KT GUSTS OUT OF
THE W-NW AS THE LOW SHIFTS E. A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UNDER THE
SHORTWAVE AND WITH THE COLDER AIR FRI MORNING WILL USHER IN THE
STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 35-40KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FRI AND
FRI EVENING. COULD ALSO SEE GUSTS AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
EXPOSED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
REFERENCE TO THAT IN THE HWO.
PRECIP...RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE ON WED AND WILL BE
HEAVIEST WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WHEN 0.75-1.50 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST W AND LOWEST E. COULD ALSO SEE SOME THUNDER
DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO SNOW OR MOSTLY
SNOW FROM W TO E LATE THU THROUGH FRI. MAIN SNOW CONCERN IS LATE THU
INTO FRI MORNING OVER WRN UPPER MI. WITH MODELS TRENDING COLDER WITH
THE AIRMASS AND STRONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WILL INCREASE QPF/SNOW
THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS WELL. HAVE GENERALLY 0.60-0.70 INCHES OF
QPF THAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR
AND THE NWRN HURON MOUNTAINS. EVEN WITH SFC TEMPS STAYING ABOVE
FREEZING...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE NW SNOWBELTS OF WRN UPPER MI. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW
IN THE HWO FOR THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FRI
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT AS SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS LOST AND SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN FROM THE W.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
SRLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE
WITH E TO NE GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...NW GALES ARE EXPECTED LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND
BACK TO THE SW AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WRN LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
634 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES AND A TROF DIGGING INTO
THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS UPPER MI BUT WAA HIGH CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO
SPILL ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TROF.
TODAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WITH
CONTINUED SRLY FLOW TEMPS WILL AGAIN PUSH WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER
WITH FCST 925-900 MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY AND A FEW MORE
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT MAX READINGS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S READINGS
POSSIBLE FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50-55 RANGE OVER THE SE.
TONIGHT...UNDER LIGHT SW WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND LAYER PWATS OF
.25 INCH OR LESS EXPECT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
TO FALL TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE (MID 20S) FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP MINS A BIT
WARMER THERE...GENERALLY THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
FOCUS REMAINS ON WED-FRI NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME
PERIOD. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WED WHILE BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED. BY 12Z
THU...THE LOW WILL BE NEAR MENOMINEE WITH THE SFC LOW AT 982-985MB.
THE LOW MOVES TO NRN LOWER MI BY 18Z THU THEN TO WRN QUEBEC BY 06Z
FRI WHILE FILLING SOME. A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME
RELATIVELY MINOR MODEL TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
BACK TO A STRONGER SOLUTION FOR THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH ALSO RESULTS
IN A COLDER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN 24
HOURS AGO. A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AT 12Z SAT...BUT HAVE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT POINT SO WILL LET CONSENSUS GUIDANCE POPULATE
FARTHER OUT.
WINDS...SHOULD SEE THREE PRIMARY PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS. FIRST
WILL BE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS CYCLONIC WINDS ARC ACROSS THE
AREA...PRODUCING SE WINDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NW WINDS
OVER THE WRN HALF...GUSTING TO AROUND 35KTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES IN
BOTH CASES. THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL SEE AROUND 30KT GUSTS OUT OF
THE W-NW AS THE LOW SHIFTS E. A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UNDER THE
SHORTWAVE AND WITH THE COLDER AIR FRI MORNING WILL USHER IN THE
STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 35-40KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FRI AND
FRI EVENING. COULD ALSO SEE GUSTS AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
EXPOSED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
REFERENCE TO THAT IN THE HWO.
PRECIP...RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE ON WED AND WILL BE
HEAVIEST WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WHEN 0.75-1.50 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST W AND LOWEST E. COULD ALSO SEE SOME THUNDER
DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO SNOW OR MOSTLY
SNOW FROM W TO E LATE THU THROUGH FRI. MAIN SNOW CONCERN IS LATE THU
INTO FRI MORNING OVER WRN UPPER MI. WITH MODELS TRENDING COLDER WITH
THE AIRMASS AND STRONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WILL INCREASE QPF/SNOW
THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS WELL. HAVE GENERALLY 0.60-0.70 INCHES OF
QPF THAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR
AND THE NWRN HURON MOUNTAINS. EVEN WITH SFC TEMPS STAYING ABOVE
FREEZING...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE NW SNOWBELTS OF WRN UPPER MI. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW
IN THE HWO FOR THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FRI
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT AS SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS LOST AND SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN FROM THE W.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
SRLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE
WITH E TO NE GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...NW GALES ARE EXPECTED LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND
BACK TO THE SW AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WRN LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES AND A TROF DIGGING INTO
THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS UPPER MI BUT WAA HIGH CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO
SPILL ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TROF.
TODAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WITH
CONTINUED SRLY FLOW TEMPS WILL AGAIN PUSH WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER
WITH FCST 925-900 MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY AND A FEW MORE
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT MAX READINGS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S READINGS
POSSIBLE FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50-55 RANGE OVER THE SE.
TONIGHT...UNDER LIGHT SW WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND LAYER PWATS OF
.25 INCH OR LESS EXPECT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
TO FALL TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE (MID 20S) FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP MINS A BIT
WARMER THERE...GENERALLY THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
FOCUS REMAINS ON WED-FRI NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME
PERIOD. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WED WHILE BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED. BY 12Z
THU...THE LOW WILL BE NEAR MENOMINEE WITH THE SFC LOW AT 982-985MB.
THE LOW MOVES TO NRN LOWER MI BY 18Z THU THEN TO WRN QUEBEC BY 06Z
FRI WHILE FILLING SOME. A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME
RELATIVELY MINOR MODEL TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
BACK TO A STRONGER SOLUTION FOR THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH ALSO RESULTS
IN A COLDER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN 24
HOURS AGO. A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AT 12Z SAT...BUT HAVE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT POINT SO WILL LET CONSENSUS GUIDANCE POPULATE
FARTHER OUT.
WINDS...SHOULD SEE THREE PRIMARY PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS. FIRST
WILL BE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS CYCLONIC WINDS ARC ACROSS THE
AREA...PRODUCING SE WINDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NW WINDS
OVER THE WRN HALF...GUSTING TO AROUND 35KTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES IN
BOTH CASES. THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL SEE AROUND 30KT GUSTS OUT OF
THE W-NW AS THE LOW SHIFTS E. A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UNDER THE
SHORTWAVE AND WITH THE COLDER AIR FRI MORNING WILL USHER IN THE
STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 35-40KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FRI AND
FRI EVENING. COULD ALSO SEE GUSTS AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
EXPOSED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
REFERENCE TO THAT IN THE HWO.
PRECIP...RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE ON WED AND WILL BE
HEAVIEST WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WHEN 0.75-1.50 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST W AND LOWEST E. COULD ALSO SEE SOME THUNDER
DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO SNOW OR MOSTLY
SNOW FROM W TO E LATE THU THROUGH FRI. MAIN SNOW CONCERN IS LATE THU
INTO FRI MORNING OVER WRN UPPER MI. WITH MODELS TRENDING COLDER WITH
THE AIRMASS AND STRONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WILL INCREASE QPF/SNOW
THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS WELL. HAVE GENERALLY 0.60-0.70 INCHES OF
QPF THAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR
AND THE NWRN HURON MOUNTAINS. EVEN WITH SFC TEMPS STAYING ABOVE
FREEZING...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE NW SNOWBELTS OF WRN UPPER MI. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW
IN THE HWO FOR THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FRI
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT AS SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS LOST AND SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN FROM THE W.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
SRLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE
WITH E TO NE GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...NW GALES ARE EXPECTED LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND
BACK TO THE SW AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WRN LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
DEFINED CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR/THETA-E ADVECTION NOW
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW LIFTING
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS PROCESS PROVIDING THE NECESSARY ASCENT
AND INCREASE IN SATURATION TO MAINTAIN POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. SE MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY POSITIONING AS
THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIVOT POINT OF THE EFFECTIVE TROWAL LIKE
FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE 700-500 MB CIRCULATION AS IT TREKS
ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BACK
INTO THE THUMB REGION AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS. THIS EVOLUTION WILL
SUSTAIN A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR CONTINUED SHOWER PRODUCTION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. THE LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS
ENVIRONMENT POINTS TO A VERY SLOW EASTWARD RELEASE OF THE INBOUND
THETA-E PLUME...SUGGESTING SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. BLANKET OF THICK MID CLOUD
LOCKED IN THROUGH THE DAY COMBINED WITH THE SHOWERS WILL RESTRICT
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE TODAY. CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S RANGE.
SLOW WEST TO EAST CLEARING PROCESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TAKES HOLD. A PERIOD OF OPEN SKY AND
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE WILL FAVOR A GREATER
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESPONSE. LOWS LARGELY WITHIN THE RANGE OF LOWER
AND MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...
A REASONABLY LAX GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY WILL EVOLVE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY INTO A LEGIT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A DOWNSTREAM
RESPONSE TO THE LOW DEEPENING EVENT OCCURRING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE IS PERHAPS
A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER WITH THE START OF MEANINGFUL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. STILL HOLDING ONTO TO A
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH SUNSHINE THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE DAY AND SURFACE WIND TRAJECTORIES THAT WILL BE HOLDING DUE
SOUTHERLY. THIS COULD PROVE TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC OF A FORECAST IF
OPAQUE HIGH CLOUD ARRIVES EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL INVOKE A CYCLOGENESIS EVENT OUT IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/KANSAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS
FORECASTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO APPROXIMATELY 984 MB AS IT LIFTS
INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH
UNTIL IT ENTERS NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT REMAINS WIND
POTENTIAL. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE
DOUBLE COLD FRONT STRUCTURE TO WORK THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
THE FIRST SOMETIME AROUND 11-13Z THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE SECOND
VERY VERY QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST...SOMETIME AROUND 14-16Z.
MIDLEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND ISENTROPIC FCST ANALSYES SUPPORT THAT
DESPITE WHAT MIGHT LOOK LIKE A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM AT FIRST
GLANCE...THE LOW TO MIDLEVEL OCCLUSION DOES NOT REALLY HAPPEN UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF SE MICHIGAN. THIS
SIGNIFIES QUALITATIVELY THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESH AND ACTIVE
SUBSIDENCE DOWN INTO THE SURFACE LAYER REMAINS IN PLAY. OVERALL...A
VERY GOOD TRAJECTORY OF SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW EXISTS DOWN THE 284 K
SURFACE. ORIGIN OF THE PARCELS OFF OF THE 284K SURFACE IS AT
APPROXIMATELY 830-840 MB WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS BETWEEN 45-50 KNOTS. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SURE ARE SOME INTERESTING ONES AFTER THE SECOND CAA SURGE..CREATING
CAPE DENSITY IN THE 800-900 MB LAYER. LOW TOPPED CONVECTION REMAINS
PLAUSIBLE AS WELL. GIVEN THIS STRONG MIX OF SUPPORT FOR HIGH
IMPACT WINDS ON THURSDAY...FUTURE WIND HEADLINES REMAIN LIKELY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT ENERGY FROM A ROSSBY WAVE BREAK
OVER THE PACNW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD AND LATCH ONTO THE CYCLONIC
ENTRANCE QUADRANT OF THE SAME UPPER LEVEL JET CORE THAT PRODUCED THE
FIRST SYSTEM. PRETTY REMARKABLE TO SEE THIS SORT OF CLEAN PHASING
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS TRAILING LOW. THERE ARE TWO LARGE
IMPACTS FROM THIS TRAILING WAVE...1. THE AMOUNT OF MIDLEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM 0C THURSDAY TO -6C
FRIDAY. THIS COLD AIR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX ON FRIDAY. 2. DEEP MIXING BROUGHT ON BY THIS
COLD AIR AND ANOTHER DAY OF WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS FRIDAY LOOK
LIKE THEY COULD REDEVELOP IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...
A BENIGN WIND FIELD WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAKENING
SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY RELINQUISHES CONTROL. THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL
THEN BECOME VERY ACTIVE AS A POWERFUL NOVEMBER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO LIFT INTO WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THROUGH
THE STRAITS REGION ON THURSDAY. THE IMPENDING STORM SYSTEM WILL
SUPPORT GALES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GALE WATCHES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE WATERS. A SECOND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION QUICK ON THE
HEELS OF THE PRIMARY STORM SYSTEM. THE ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL
MAINTAIN THE GALES OVER LAKE HURON ON FRIDAY.
WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECASTED
TO TRACK DIRECTLY OVER THE STRAITS REGION AND PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TYPE OF SCENARIOS PRESENT
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHALLENGES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO COMMUNICATE IN
THE MARINE FORECASTS. EXPECT WIND DIRECTIONS AND WIND SPEEDS TO
CHANGE ABRUPTLY AND WITHOUT MUCH NOTICE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 116 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
AS A LOW COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA, FOCUS OF
ATTENTION REMAINS ON AREA OF GATHERING RADAR RETURNS OVER SOUTHWEST
AND WEST-CENTRAL OHIO. THIS AREA OF FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN
TO THE AIRFIELDS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A PROBABLE REDUCTION
TO MVFR MAINLY 09-15Z...ALTHOUGH LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT
AT A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER PERSISTING FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. THEREFORE,
HAVE EXTENDED A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS INTO THE EARLY AFTN. -RA WILL
TAPER OFF IN THE EARLY AFTN WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TO TAKE ITS TIME
WORKING IN FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AXIS IS SLOW TO DEPART.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 08Z.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LHZ363-421-422-441>443-462>464.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LEZ444.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
324 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW
PREVAILED THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH PRES FROM THE ERN LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH OVER THE WRN PLAINS. VIS LOOP SHOWED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MI/WI/MN WITH HIGH CLOUDS WELL OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS.
TONIGHT...A WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE SW WINDS TO DIMINISH
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS
SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE
UPER 30S FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY DOWNSLOPE SW FLOW.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED SRLY
FLOW WILL AGAIN PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...WITH FCST
925-900 MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY AND A FEW MORE HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT MAX REAINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.
SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50-55 RANGE OVER THE
SE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
FOCUS REMAINS ON WED-FRI NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME
PERIOD. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WED WHILE BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED. BY 12Z
THU...THE LOW WILL BE NEAR MENOMINEE WITH THE SFC LOW AT 982-985MB.
THE LOW MOVES TO NRN LOWER MI BY 18Z THU THEN TO WRN QUEBEC BY 06Z
FRI WHILE FILLING SOME. A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME
RELATIVELY MINOR MODEL TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
BACK TO A STRONGER SOLUTION FOR THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH ALSO RESULTS
IN A COLDER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN 24
HOURS AGO. A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AT 12Z SAT...BUT HAVE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT POINT SO WILL LET CONSENSUS GUIDANCE POPULATE
FARTHER OUT.
WINDS...SHOULD SEE THREE PRIMARY PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS. FIRST
WILL BE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS CYCLONIC WINDS ARC ACROSS THE
AREA...PRODUCING SE WINDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NW WINDS
OVER THE WRN HALF...GUSTING TO AROUND 35KTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES IN
BOTH CASES. THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL SEE AROUND 30KT GUSTS OUT OF
THE W-NW AS THE LOW SHIFTS E. A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UNDER THE
SHORTWAVE AND WITH THE COLDER AIR FRI MORNING WILL USHER IN THE
STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 35-40KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FRI AND
FRI EVENING. COULD ALSO SEE GUSTS AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
EXPOSED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
REFERENCE TO THAT IN THE HWO.
PRECIP...RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE ON WED AND WILL BE
HEAVIEST WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WHEN 0.75-1.50 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST W AND LOWEST E. COULD ALSO SEE SOME THUNDER
DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO SNOW OR MOSTLY
SNOW FROM W TO E LATE THU THROUGH FRI. MAIN SNOW CONCERN IS LATE THU
INTO FRI MORNING OVER WRN UPPER MI. WITH MODELS TRENDING COLDER WITH
THE AIRMASS AND STRONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WILL INCREASE QPF/SNOW
THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS WELL. HAVE GENERALLY 0.60-0.70 INCHES OF
QPF THAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR
AND THE NWRN HURON MOUNTAINS. EVEN WITH SFC TEMPS STAYING ABOVE
FREEZING...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE NW SNOWBELTS OF WRN UPPER MI. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW
IN THE HWO FOR THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FRI
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT AS SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS LOST AND SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN FROM THE W.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
SRLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH
E GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI EVENING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND BACK TO THE SW AS A
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WRN LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
116 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.AVIATION...
AS A LOW COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA, FOCUS OF
ATTENTION REMAINS ON AREA OF GATHERING RADAR RETURNS OVER SOUTHWEST
AND WEST-CENTRAL OHIO. THIS AREA OF FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN
TO THE AIRFIELDS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A PROBABLE REDUCTION
TO MVFR MAINLY 09-15Z...ALTHOUGH LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT
AT A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER PERSISTING FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. THEREFORE,
HAVE EXTENDED A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS INTO THE EARLY AFTN. -RA WILL
TAPER OFF IN THE EARLY AFTN WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TO TAKE ITS TIME
WORKING IN FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AXIS IS SLOW TO DEPART.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 08Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 939 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
UPDATE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERALL. CONCERN AT THE MOMENT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. EFFECTIVE RADIATING HAS ALLOWED
THE AGRICULTURAL AREAS OF THE THUMB TO FALL TO FREEZING OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ALREADY THIS EVENING. A FEW MORE HOURS OF COOLING
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN. GIVEN THE GENERALLY LIGHT
NATURE OF THE RAIN, THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR CLOUD COVER TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOUNCE UP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH MINIMAL WET
BULB CONCERNS UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WHEN BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
12-15Z. IN ADDITION, THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CONCERN FOR SURFACE
ICING GIVEN ANTECEDENT WARM GROUND. AT WORST, A MINOR ICING OF
ELEVATED SURFACES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS. WILL FORGO
AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF FZRA IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW...PENDING
OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OF PRECIP AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 314 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN IN/OH AND
FAR LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
RAPIDLY NORTH AND ALREADY TO CENTRAL OHIO AND INDIANA. SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. RAIN REACHING THE GROUND
CROSSING OHIO RIVER NOW AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE SPREADING
NORTHWARD. EVEN WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...THE SURGE WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO QUICKLY OVERCOME THIS. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE
AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER INCH ARE POSSIBLE TAPERING TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TOWARD SAGINAW AND MIDLAND. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SEE A RAPID DROP AFTER SUNSET WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 30S AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN. THE THUMB AND SAGINAW VALLEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST RADIATIVE COOLING PERIOD...THOUGH AT RATE
CLOUDS EXPANDING NORTH SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LONGER THEN THE REST OF
THE AREA. LOOKING AT MAINLY MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
SOUTH.
LONG TERM...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WITH MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD
FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. DURING 12-15Z TIME
FRAME...NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH AXIS WITH CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL PV
OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO...LIKELY ALLOWING FOR FORCING
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN THUMB REGION DURING MORNING HOURS
AS 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE SLOWLY ADVANCES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON. 12Z NAM HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z EURO (ALTHOUGH
12Z EURO HAS SLIDE QPF AXIS A BIT FARTHER EAST)...AND HAVE RAISED
POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST INTO CATEGORICAL CATEGORY. DO PREFER THE
COOLER MAX TEMP SOLUTION OF MET GUIDANCE...AROUND 50 DEGREES WITH
LOW CLOUDS HOLDING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS.
VERY IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (120 KNOTS AT 250 MB) WORKING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OUT WEST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH RIDGE
AXIS ON TOP OF LOWER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. CYCLOGENESIS TAKING
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
983-984 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR GREEN BAY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ROLLING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
AROUND THAT TIME. UNLIKE THIS LAST FRIDAY...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
VERY GOOD POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT TO WORK WITH...AS
850 MB TEMPS LOOK TO DROP FROM THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND
1 C WITHIN 6 HOURS...AND WITH 925 MB WIND ADVERTISED AT 50 KNOTS
ON THURSDAY...WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR GREATER APPEAR LIKELY...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END WIND ADVISORY AS 850 MB WINDS REACH NEAR
60 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST/MUCH THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT CROSSES THE STRAIGHTS DURING
THURSDAY...AS THE 6 HR RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET OF 24 MB BEGINS
TO WEAKEN ACCORDINGLY. THE INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/SYSTEM COMING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE THE FINAL OUTCOME.
HAVE NOTED THE 12Z GFS INDICATING SOME MARGINAL SURFACE BASED CAPES
WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL HAVE TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE AXIS GETS PINCHED OFF...OR ELSE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER..AT
THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE SURFACE DEW PTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50
DEGREES...MUCH LOWER THAN THE LOWER 60S THIS PAST FRIDAY MORNING.
THE POWERFUL MID WEEK STORM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
IN SE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE PULLING AWAY DURING
THE WEEKEND. SOME SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AS A NEW ROUND OF JET ENERGY FEEDS INTO
THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED STRONG
WESTERLY WIND CAPABLE OF GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE. THERE WILL ALSO
BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR ARRIVING DURING FRIDAY...ENOUGH THAT SOME
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE REMAINING MOISTURE PATTERN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS POINT TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY AND LOW POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION...
BUT STILL AN ASPECT OF THE FORECAST TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD. THERE
IS ALSO REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE EXIT TIMING OF THE SYSTEM DURING
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL HELP CALM THINGS DOWN DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP
SALVAGE A BETTER DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO
REACH THE LOWER 50S AGAIN BY THEN.
MARINE...
A BENIGN WIND FIELD WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAKENING
SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY RELINQUISHES CONTROL. THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL
THEN BECOME VERY ACTIVE AS A POWERFUL NOVEMBER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE STORM
SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO LIFT INTO WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND THROUGH THE STRAITS REGION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
IMPENDING STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GALES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND HAVE HOISTED GALE WATCHES
FOR ALL MARINE WATERS. SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE
PRIMARY STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE GALES OVER
LAKE HURON ON FRIDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LHZ363-421-422-441>443-462>464.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...DRC
LONG TERM....SF/BT
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1221 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW
PREVAILED THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH PRES FROM THE ERN LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH OVER THE WRN PLAINS. VIS LOOP SHOWED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MI/WI/MN WITH HIGH CLOUDS WELL OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS.
TONIGHT...A WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE SW WINDS TO DIMINISH
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS
SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE
UPER 30S FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY DOWNSLOPE SW FLOW.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED SRLY
FLOW WILL AGAIN PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...WITH FCST
925-900 MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY AND A FEW MORE HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT MAX REAINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.
SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50-55 RANGE OVER THE
SE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS ON THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...SO WILL COVER
THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE MODELS FIRST. THE UPPER TROUGH COMING ON
SHORE ON THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
IN EASTERN COLORADO BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING TO 987MB IN IOWA BY
00Z THURSDAY. THE LOW MAY DEEPEN A LITTLE MORE OVER THE FOLLOWING
12HRS...BUT LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND REACH THE SOO AROUND 987MB AT 18Z THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN
SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPIN FOR AROUND
24 HOURS BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
WHILE THE STORM WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LOWER
THAN WHAT THEY COULD HAVE BEEN WITH RESPECT TO WIND DUE TO THE UPPER
LOW CLOSING OFF AND BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR IN PLACE
INITIALLY WILL LEAD TO THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND TRANSITIONS THE
RAIN TO SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
FIRST FOR THE WIND...THERE WILL BE THREE DIFFERENT WAVES OF
STRONGER WINDS AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE FIRST ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH THE STRONG (25-30KT)
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.P. THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST (GUSTING TO SIMILAR VALUES) BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING (25-40KT GUSTS). THAT LAST SHIFT WILL
LIKELY MARK THE STRONGEST WINDS DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
COLD AIR SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SHORT
GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN GALE
EVENT OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH INTO FRIDAY. THAT COULD ALSO PRODUCE
THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.
FOR PRECIPITATION...THE INITIAL SURGE ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIED TO THE BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER MENTION IN PLACE
WITH THE SHOWALTER VALUES FALLING TO AROUND ZERO AND SOME POCKETS
OF MUCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK DRY
SLOT ALOFT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN CWA. BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK/MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION DURING THE REST OF THE
EVENT WILL BE TIED TO THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AIDED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C. THOSE FALLING
TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. TO LEAD TO A MARKED INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN U.P.. THE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO REACH THE EASTERN
U.P....BUT SHOULD SEE IT TAKE OFF TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE
AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ONCE IT TURNS OVER TO
SNOW...THINK A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL START TO MENTION IN THE HWO. WITH THE TIME
OF DAY AND INTENSITY...WOULD EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATION ON THE
ROADWAYS EVEN WITH THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN
HAVING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OUT WEST NEARING 1.5 INCHES.
ADD TO THAT AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OVER THE WEST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION AFTER A DRY FALL.
AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TRENDS TEMPERATURES BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
SRLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH
E GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI EVENING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND BACK TO THE SW AS A
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WRN LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
523 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WITH DEVELOPING QLCS. BOTH HRRR AND EXTRAPOLATION HAVE IT
REACHING SOUTHEAST AR CLOSER TO 900 PM...WELL BEHIND CURRENT
FORECAST...SO HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...BUT HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACCELERATION AS THE LINE MATURES. CURRENT
ORIENTATION OF 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS TO THE LINE IS NOT ALL THAT
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG MESO VORTICES...BUT MAGNITUDE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH
40-50KTS. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MID AFTERNOON SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD A 991MB LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH A 1017MB RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
WAS RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WERE HELPING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS OUR CWA WITH UPPER 60F DEW POINTS NOTED BACK OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA AS WELL. MID AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP
ANALYSIS HAD A 540DAM CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
THIS CLOSED LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR CWA. NOT A LOT HAS CHANGED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
THINKING CONCERNING SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. NARROW BAND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS BAND WILL ENCOUNTER A MOIST
AIR MASS AS INCH AND THREE QUARTER PWATS POOL AHEAD OF IT. A LOW CAPE
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED STORMS APPROACHES OUR CWA.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF
TORNADO. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST
INTO OUR CWA AND THE LATER IT GETS INTO TONIGHT. THE AREA WHICH
STANDS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SEVERE STORMS REMAINS OUR
DELTA REGION GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A MONROE LOUISIANA TO GRENADA
MISSISSIPPI LINE. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 7 PM AND
11 PM. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE NATCHEZ TRACE BY 3AM AND
PUSH SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY 9AM. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MID
AFTERNOON. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MORNING LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY WITH THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. MOST SITES WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOWER 40S. /22/
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BY SATURDAY MORNING...EVEN
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS
WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.15 INCHES. THIS...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
CAA SHOULD BRING LOWS SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE NORTH AND
HAVE INCLUDED THIS INTO THE FORECAST. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN
DEVELOPING OUT TO OUR WEST AND THIS WILL HELP SEND MOISTURE TOWARD
OUR REGION AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THAT TROUGH WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE UPPER FLOW AS IT TRACKS EAST AND A SFC LOW
TRACKS NORTH INTO CANADA. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. THIS COMES AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OUT TO THE WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT
THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE REGION
FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
EXIST BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN LATER FORECASTS. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY IN THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY
WITH LOWS BACK INTO THE 50S AND LIKELY NEARING 60. /28/22/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT
LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELTA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
LINE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELTA...AND WILL
REACH THE DELTA DURING THE EVENING, THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT, THEN PASS THROUGH THE PINE BELT THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE, AND BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM S TO NW. ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS, WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
AND POTENTIALLY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT REDUCING CIGS TO
IFR/LIFR RANGE. THIS STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 60 68 41 66 / 71 9 0 0
MERIDIAN 63 68 39 66 / 47 16 0 0
VICKSBURG 58 68 40 66 / 72 2 0 0
HATTIESBURG 65 72 43 68 / 30 26 0 0
NATCHEZ 60 67 44 65 / 69 13 0 0
GREENVILLE 52 67 42 64 / 89 1 0 0
GREENWOOD 54 66 39 64 / 80 1 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
JAN/JAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1027 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
.UPDATE...PESKY LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE AREA,
THOUGH BREAKS HAVE BECOME COMMON OVER PARTS OF THE DELTA, IN THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE, AND IN A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR VICKSBURG THROUGH THE
JACKSON METRO TO SCOOBA. AREA 12Z RAOBS SHOWED THIS MOISTURE LAYER
HAD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER COMPARED TO PAST OBSERVATIONS,
BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED TO BE FAR TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN CLEARING THINGS OUT. HRRR SKY COVER GUIDANCE, WHILE
CERTAINLY NOT PERFECT, SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER GRASP OF THE SITUATION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THUS OUR SKY COVER FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO
BE MORE SIMILAR TO THIS SOLUTION, SHOWING CLOUDS DIMINISHING MORE
RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
THEN TAKING A BIT LONGER OVER THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND LONGER, MAX TEMP/HOURLY TEMP
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO KNOCK THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE
AREAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE MOST. NO OTHER
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. /DL/
&&
.AVIATION...16Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED EROSION OF CLOUD
COVER BUT WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WERE STILL BEING OBSERVED WITH A FEW
SITES IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A SLOW EROSION
OF CLOUD COVER INTO EARLY AFTN BEFORE VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF
SITES BY 21Z. VFR CONDS WL CONT THIS EVENING BUT IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 06Z. /22/
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE CWA ON DURING THE DAY WHILE
OUR FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH TO THE
EASTERN US WHICH WILL PROVIDE WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO MODERATE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S WEST TO THE UPPER 50S
WEST. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING TO THE REGION
AHEAD OF WEDNESDAYS STORM SYSTEM.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
PERSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. AS WE MOVE
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
ARKLATEX REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.9
INCHES POOLING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER
70S. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING WELL NORTH
OF OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT. BY 00Z...A SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA AND CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE
EXITING OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS
REMAIN LIMITED WITH MLCAPES LESS THAN 200J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LESS THAN 6C/KM BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ONE OF HIGH SHEAR
AND HIGH WINDS SUPPORTED BY A NEARBY 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
MODELS STILL PROG 0-1KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS...50-60KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR
ALONG WITH 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 250 M2/S2. THIS
SHOULD HELP THE SQUALL LING PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY BOWING
SEGMENTS AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES. QPF AMOUNTS
SUPPORT A THIN LINE OF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.15-0.25 INCHES. THE BEST
LOCATION FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS REMAINS THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION
DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AS THE LINE PUSHES INTO HIGHER MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS. HI-RES
MODELS SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS THEY SHOW THE LINE WEAKENING BY
LATE EVENING. MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS WERE GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH
THE TIMING OF THE SQUALL LINE. SPC FOR DAY 2 HAS TAKEN THE SLIGHT
RISK NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HOLD ON TO THE
CURRENT LINE OF THOUGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST./17/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LINE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND CAA WILL MOVE IN.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL REALLY HELP TO BRING
IN THE COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER CHILLY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S. SOME LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST
COULD EVEN DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S COME EARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS AS THE SFC HIGH BECOMES CENTERED MORE OVER THE REGION.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING LOOKS
TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE MOVING EAST. THE
GFS KEEPS HOLD OF THIS A LITTLE LONGER WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLES MOVE THE RIDGE OFF EAST SOONER AND MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH OUT WEST. SOME MOISTURE AND PRECIP MAY
ENTER THE WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MOSTLY
LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND DEEPER. IT WANTS TO BRING THIS INTO THE MID SOUTH
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS DOESNT GET TO THE ARKLAMISS BY A
COUPLE OF DAYS LATER. HAVE KEPT WITH CONSENSUS OF MOST OF THE MODELS
IN BRINGING SOME RAIN IN BY MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. /28/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DL/22/17/28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
1207 PM MST TUE NOV 10 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CARTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES. STILL SEEING FOG IN THESE AREAS BUT VISIBILITY IS MUCH
IMPROVED AT BAKER AND ON WEB CAMS IN THIS AREA. UPSLOPE INTO THE
HILLS AROUND EKALAKA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FOG INTO THIS
EVENING. SEEING PRECIPITATION FILL IN TO THE WEST OF BILLINGS
UNDER THE CORE OF THE UPPER VORTICITY CENTER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON GENERATING SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. CHAMBERS
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BAROCLINIC LEAF HAS
MOVED THROUGH BILLINGS AND IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THIS
FEATURE DOES SEEM TO BE BROADENING IN COVERAGE AREA...AND LOOKS
LIKE IT SHOULD BRING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN VORTICITY CENTER IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND EXHIBITS
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...CURRENT HRRR MODEL IS
TRACKING VERY CLOSELY WITH THE CURRENT SITUATION...AND DOES NOT
SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. HAVE CHOSEN TO PARE BACK THE LIKELY POPS TO CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME...AS COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
RATHER THAN BROAD WEATHER SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM DUE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LEE TROFFING WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC...AND COMBINE WITH SFC
HIGH OVER YELLOWSTONE PARK TO CREATE GRADIENT OVER LIVINGSTON...IN
SUPPORT OF A GAP FLOW EVENT. THE TIMING ON THIS APPEARS TO PEAK
AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY...AND SHUT DOWN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
CLIPPER PUSHES INTO THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED WINDS IN LIVINGSTON
AND NYE TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL AT THIS TIME. LOCAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES ALL-BUT-CERTAIN ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON...BUT SEEMS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE HIGHLIGHT...AS MUCH CAN CHANGE IN 24HRS.
THE FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT WITH THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS...AS WELL AS COLD AIR. POPS LOOK LIKE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW...AS DRY DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND
IT. AAG
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
500MB HEIGHTS REBOUND ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH
FLOW SLOWLY BACKING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INTO A ZONAL PATTERN.
SUNDAY RIDGING BUILDINGS INTO THE AREA BUT PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SPLITTING WAVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY AS A WINDOW OF STRONG GAP FLOW
WINDS EVOLVES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING OF A DISTURBANCE ON
SATURDAY TO DROP SURFACE PRESSURES OVER ALBERTA LOOKS TO BRING THE
PEAK WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE WINDY THROUGH THAT
PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND TO OTHER AREAS AS
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL MIX DOWN SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM. SOME AREAS COULD HIT 60 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.
OTHER THAN SOME VERY HIGH LEVEL OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS UNTIL MONDAY WHEN SOME INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING A SHOWERS. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 19Z OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SITTING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO LOW VFR LEVELS...AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
NEAR SNOW SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING AND OFF AND
ON THIS AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS
SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039 027/045 029/041 027/050 037/057 037/054 034/047
4/W 30/N 20/N 00/N 00/N 11/B 22/W
LVM 037 023/039 026/034 024/043 032/049 033/047 029/040
5/J 22/W 30/N 10/N 11/N 11/N 22/W
HDN 041 023/046 027/043 023/053 032/060 033/055 031/048
4/W 31/B 20/B 00/B 00/B 01/B 22/W
MLS 040 027/046 029/043 024/053 035/061 035/056 032/047
5/W 31/B 10/N 00/B 00/B 01/B 22/W
4BQ 040 026/046 028/043 023/055 032/062 033/059 032/049
2/J 21/B 10/N 00/U 00/B 00/B 12/W
BHK 038 027/042 026/040 020/051 033/059 033/055 030/045
2/J 31/B 11/N 00/N 00/B 01/B 12/W
SHR 040 023/046 026/041 020/053 029/060 031/057 030/048
3/J 21/B 20/N 00/U 00/B 00/B 12/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
846 AM MST TUE NOV 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CARTER AND FALLON COUNTY THROUGH
NOON TODAY. UPSLOPE FOG HAS DROPPED VISIBILITY TO AROUND A QUARTER
MILE IN EKALAKA AND BAKER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
WARMING UP SOME WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THE FOG LATE
THIS MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICK IN THIS AREA SO USE CAUTION.
UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY KEEPING 30
TO 40 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE DAY. COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MEAN MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...BUT LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. ENERGY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT TONIGHT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA FOR
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER AND A COLD START TO THE DAY WILL HELP TO HOLD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S THERE. CHAMBERS
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BAROCLINIC LEAF HAS
MOVED THROUGH BILLINGS AND IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THIS
FEATURE DOES SEEM TO BE BROADENING IN COVERAGE AREA...AND LOOKS
LIKE IT SHOULD BRING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN VORTICITY CENTER IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND EXHIBITS
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...CURRENT HRRR MODEL IS
TRACKING VERY CLOSELY WITH THE CURRENT SITUATION...AND DOES NOT
SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. HAVE CHOSEN TO PARE BACK THE LIKELY POPS TO CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME...AS COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
RATHER THAN BROAD WEATHER SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM DUE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LEE TROFFING WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC...AND COMBINE WITH SFC
HIGH OVER YELLOWSTONE PARK TO CREATE GRADIENT OVER LIVINGSTON...IN
SUPPORT OF A GAP FLOW EVENT. THE TIMING ON THIS APPEARS TO PEAK
AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY...AND SHUT DOWN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
CLIPPER PUSHES INTO THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED WINDS IN LIVINGSTON
AND NYE TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL AT THIS TIME. LOCAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES ALL-BUT-CERTAIN ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON...BUT SEEMS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE HIGHLIGHT...AS MUCH CAN CHANGE IN 24HRS.
THE FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT WITH THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS...AS WELL AS COLD AIR. POPS LOOK LIKE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW...AS DRY DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND
IT. AAG
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
500MB HEIGHTS REBOUND ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH
FLOW SLOWLY BACKING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INTO A ZONAL PATTERN.
SUNDAY RIDGING BUILDINGS INTO THE AREA BUT PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SPLITTING WAVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY AS A WINDOW OF STRONG GAP FLOW
WINDS EVOLVES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING OF A DISTURBANCE ON
SATURDAY TO DROP SURFACE PRESSURES OVER ALBERTA LOOKS TO BRING THE
PEAK WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE WINDY THROUGH THAT
PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND TO OTHER AREAS AS
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL MIX DOWN SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM. SOME AREAS COULD HIT 60 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.
OTHER THAN SOME VERY HIGH LEVEL OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS UNTIL MONDAY WHEN SOME INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING A SHOWERS. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 19Z OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SITTING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO LOW VFR LEVELS...AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
NEAR SNOW SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING AND OFF AND
ON THIS AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS
SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039 027/045 029/041 027/050 037/057 037/054 034/047
5/W 30/N 20/N 00/N 00/N 11/B 22/W
LVM 037 023/039 026/034 024/043 032/049 033/047 029/040
5/J 22/W 30/N 10/N 11/N 11/N 22/W
HDN 041 023/046 027/043 023/053 032/060 033/055 031/048
+/W 31/B 20/B 00/B 00/B 01/B 22/W
MLS 040 027/046 029/043 024/053 035/061 035/056 032/047
6/J 31/B 10/N 00/B 00/B 01/B 22/W
4BQ 040 026/046 028/043 023/055 032/062 033/059 032/049
2/J 21/B 10/N 00/U 00/B 00/B 12/W
BHK 038 027/042 026/040 020/051 033/059 033/055 030/045
2/J 31/B 11/N 00/N 00/B 01/B 12/W
SHR 040 023/046 026/041 020/053 029/060 031/057 030/048
3/J 21/B 20/N 00/U 00/B 00/B 12/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES
33-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
840 AM MST TUE NOV 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CARTER AND FALLON COUNTY THROUGH
NOON TODAY. UPSLOPE FOG HAS DROPPED VISIBILITY TO AROUND A QUARTER
MILE IN EKALAKA AND BAKER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
WARMING UP SOME WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THE FOG LATE
THIS MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICK IN THIS AREA SO USE CAUTION.
UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY KEEPING 30
TO 40 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE DAY. COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MEAN MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...BUT LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. ENERGY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT TONIGHT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA FOR
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER AND A COLD START TO THE DAY WILL HELP TO HOLD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S THERE. CHAMBERS
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BAROCLINIC LEAF HAS
MOVED THROUGH BILLINGS AND IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THIS
FEATURE DOES SEEM TO BE BROADENING IN COVERAGE AREA...AND LOOKS
LIKE IT SHOULD BRING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN VORTICITY CENTER IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND EXHIBITS
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...CURRENT HRRR MODEL IS
TRACKING VERY CLOSELY WITH THE CURRENT SITUATION...AND DOES NOT
SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. HAVE CHOSEN TO PARE BACK THE LIKELY POPS TO CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME...AS COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
RATHER THAN BROAD WEATHER SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM DUE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LEE TROFFING WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC...AND COMBINE WITH SFC
HIGH OVER YELLOWSTONE PARK TO CREATE GRADIENT OVER LIVINGSTON...IN
SUPPORT OF A GAP FLOW EVENT. THE TIMING ON THIS APPEARS TO PEAK
AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY...AND SHUT DOWN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
CLIPPER PUSHES INTO THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED WINDS IN LIVINGSTON
AND NYE TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL AT THIS TIME. LOCAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES ALL-BUT-CERTAIN ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON...BUT SEEMS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE HIGHLIGHT...AS MUCH CAN CHANGE IN 24HRS.
THE FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT WITH THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS...AS WELL AS COLD AIR. POPS LOOK LIKE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW...AS DRY DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND
IT. AAG
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
500MB HEIGHTS REBOUND ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH
FLOW SLOWLY BACKING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INTO A ZONAL PATTERN.
SUNDAY RIDGING BUILDINGS INTO THE AREA BUT PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SPLITTING WAVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY AS A WINDOW OF STRONG GAP FLOW
WINDS EVOLVES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING OF A DISTURBANCE ON
SATURDAY TO DROP SURFACE PRESSURES OVER ALBERTA LOOKS TO BRING THE
PEAK WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE WINDY THROUGH THAT
PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND TO OTHER AREAS AS
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL MIX DOWN SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM. SOME AREAS COULD HIT 60 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.
OTHER THAN SOME VERY HIGH LEVEL OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS UNTIL MONDAY WHEN SOME INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING A SHOWERS. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG UNTIL
MID MORNING PRODUCING LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS.
WEST OF AND INCLUDING BILLINGS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A
BIT MORE NUMEROUS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND FAVOR MOUNTAINS WEST
OF BILLINGS ESPECIALLY THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR CONDITIONS THOUGH FOOTHILL AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. BORSUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039 027/045 029/041 027/050 037/057 037/054 034/047
5/W 30/N 20/N 00/N 00/N 11/B 22/W
LVM 037 023/039 026/034 024/043 032/049 033/047 029/040
5/J 22/W 30/N 10/N 11/N 11/N 22/W
HDN 041 023/046 027/043 023/053 032/060 033/055 031/048
+/W 31/B 20/B 00/B 00/B 01/B 22/W
MLS 040 027/046 029/043 024/053 035/061 035/056 032/047
6/J 31/B 10/N 00/B 00/B 01/B 22/W
4BQ 040 026/046 028/043 023/055 032/062 033/059 032/049
2/J 21/B 10/N 00/U 00/B 00/B 12/W
BHK 038 027/042 026/040 020/051 033/059 033/055 030/045
2/J 31/B 11/N 00/N 00/B 01/B 12/W
SHR 040 023/046 026/041 020/053 029/060 031/057 030/048
3/J 21/B 20/N 00/U 00/B 00/B 12/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES
33-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
743 AM MST TUE NOV 10 2015
.UPDATE...
QUICK FORECAST UPDATE TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
CATEGORICAL OVER CENTRAL ZONES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. REPORTS OF A
COUPLE INCHES OF WET SNOW OVER THE BULL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS JUST MOVING INTO THE BILLINGS AREA
NOW SO THINK THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS OVER IN TOWN...THOUGH
WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER OR TWO INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL VORT CENTER OVER PARK COUNTY IS SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST WHICH IS A DIFFERENT PATH THAN EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE
MAY PROLONG PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND COULD BRING BACK
PRECIPITATION TO AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED. WILL SEE WHAT
THE 12Z MODELS DO WITH THIS FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED IN SOME PORTIONS OF SE MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITY IN BAKER DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE. HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD WORK TO DISSIPATE THIS FOG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BUT WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR A SHORT ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
CHAMBERS
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BAROCLINIC LEAF HAS
MOVED THROUGH BILLINGS AND IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THIS
FEATURE DOES SEEM TO BE BROADENING IN COVERAGE AREA...AND LOOKS
LIKE IT SHOULD BRING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN VORTICITY CENTER IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND EXHIBITS
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...CURRENT HRRR MODEL IS
TRACKING VERY CLOSELY WITH THE CURRENT SITUATION...AND DOES NOT
SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. HAVE CHOSEN TO PARE BACK THE LIKELY POPS TO CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME...AS COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
RATHER THAN BROAD WEATHER SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM DUE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LEE TROFFING WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC...AND COMBINE WITH SFC
HIGH OVER YELLOWSTONE PARK TO CREATE GRADIENT OVER LIVINGSTON...IN
SUPPORT OF A GAP FLOW EVENT. THE TIMING ON THIS APPEARS TO PEAK
AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY...AND SHUT DOWN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
CLIPPER PUSHES INTO THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED WINDS IN LIVINGSTON
AND NYE TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL AT THIS TIME. LOCAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES ALL-BUT-CERTAIN ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON...BUT SEEMS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE HIGHLIGHT...AS MUCH CAN CHANGE IN 24HRS.
THE FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT WITH THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS...AS WELL AS COLD AIR. POPS LOOK LIKE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW...AS DRY DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND
IT. AAG
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
500MB HEIGHTS REBOUND ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH
FLOW SLOWLY BACKING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INTO A ZONAL PATTERN.
SUNDAY RIDGING BUILDINGS INTO THE AREA BUT PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SPLITTING WAVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY AS A WINDOW OF STRONG GAP FLOW
WINDS EVOLVES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING OF A DISTURBANCE ON
SATURDAY TO DROP SURFACE PRESSURES OVER ALBERTA LOOKS TO BRING THE
PEAK WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE WINDY THROUGH THAT
PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND TO OTHER AREAS AS
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL MIX DOWN SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM. SOME AREAS COULD HIT 60 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.
OTHER THAN SOME VERY HIGH LEVEL OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS UNTIL MONDAY WHEN SOME INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING A SHOWERS. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG UNTIL
MID MORNING PRODUCING LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS.
WEST OF AND INCLUDING BILLINGS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A
BIT MORE NUMEROUS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND FAVOR MOUNTAINS WEST
OF BILLINGS ESPECIALLY THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR CONDITIONS THOUGH FOOTHILL AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. BORSUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040 027/045 029/041 027/050 037/057 037/054 034/047
5/W 30/N 20/N 00/N 00/N 11/B 22/W
LVM 035 024/039 026/034 024/043 032/049 033/047 029/040
5/J 32/W 30/N 10/N 11/N 11/N 22/W
HDN 041 025/046 027/043 023/053 032/060 033/055 031/048
+/W 31/B 20/B 00/B 00/B 01/B 22/W
MLS 041 027/046 029/043 024/053 035/061 035/056 032/047
6/W 31/B 10/N 00/B 00/B 01/B 22/W
4BQ 042 026/046 028/043 023/055 032/062 033/059 032/049
2/W 21/B 10/N 00/U 00/B 00/B 12/W
BHK 040 027/042 026/040 020/051 033/059 033/055 030/045
2/W 31/B 11/N 00/N 00/B 01/B 12/W
SHR 041 024/046 026/041 020/053 029/060 031/057 030/048
5/W 21/B 20/N 00/U 00/B 00/B 12/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
317 AM MST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BAROCLINIC LEAF HAS
MOVED THROUGH BILLINGS AND IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THIS
FEATURE DOES SEEM TO BE BROADENING IN COVERAGE AREA...AND LOOKS
LIKE IT SHOULD BRING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN VORTICITY CENTER IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND EXHIBITS
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...CURRENT HRRR MODEL IS
TRACKING VERY CLOSELY WITH THE CURRENT SITUATION...AND DOES NOT
SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. HAVE CHOSEN TO PARE BACK THE LIKELY POPS TO CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME...AS COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
RATHER THAN BROAD WEATHER SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM DUE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LEE TROFFING WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC...AND COMBINE WITH SFC
HIGH OVER YELLOWSTONE PARK TO CREATE GRADIENT OVER LIVINGSTON...IN
SUPPORT OF A GAP FLOW EVENT. THE TIMING ON THIS APPEARS TO PEAK
AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY...AND SHUT DOWN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
CLIPPER PUSHES INTO THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED WINDS IN LIVINGSTON
AND NYE TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL AT THIS TIME. LOCAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES ALL-BUT-CERTAIN ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON...BUT SEEMS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE HIGHLIGHT...AS MUCH CAN CHANGE IN 24HRS.
THE FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT WITH THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS...AS WELL AS COLD AIR. POPS LOOK LIKE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW...AS DRY DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND
IT. AAG
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
500MB HEIGHTS REBOUND ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH
FLOW SLOWLY BACKING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INTO A ZONAL PATTERN.
SUNDAY RIDGING BUILDINGS INTO THE AREA BUT PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SPLITTING WAVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY AS A WINDOW OF STRONG GAP FLOW
WINDS EVOLVES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING OF A DISTURBANCE ON
SATURDAY TO DROP SURFACE PRESSURES OVER ALBERTA LOOKS TO BRING THE
PEAK WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE WINDY THROUGH THAT
PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND TO OTHER AREAS AS
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL MIX DOWN SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM. SOME AREAS COULD HIT 60 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.
OTHER THAN SOME VERY HIGH LEVEL OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS UNTIL MONDAY WHEN SOME INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING A SHOWERS. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG UNTIL
MID MORNING PRODUCING LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS.
WEST OF AND INCLUDING BILLINGS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A
BIT MORE NUMEROUS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND FAVOR MOUNTAINS WEST
OF BILLINGS ESPECIALLY THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR CONDITIONS THOUGH FOOTHILL AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. BORSUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040 027/045 029/041 027/050 037/057 037/054 034/047
5/W 30/N 20/N 00/N 00/N 11/B 22/W
LVM 035 024/039 026/034 024/043 032/049 033/047 029/040
6/J 32/W 30/N 10/N 11/N 11/N 22/W
HDN 041 025/046 027/043 023/053 032/060 033/055 031/048
4/W 31/B 20/B 00/B 00/B 01/B 22/W
MLS 041 027/046 029/043 024/053 035/061 035/056 032/047
5/W 31/B 10/N 00/B 00/B 01/B 22/W
4BQ 042 026/046 028/043 023/055 032/062 033/059 032/049
2/W 21/B 10/N 00/U 00/B 00/B 12/W
BHK 040 027/042 026/040 020/051 033/059 033/055 030/045
2/W 31/B 11/N 00/N 00/B 01/B 12/W
SHR 041 024/046 026/041 020/053 029/060 031/057 030/048
5/W 21/B 20/N 00/U 00/B 00/B 12/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
409 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
AT 09Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM ERN CO...ERN WY INTO
NCTRL SD AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR MINOT ND THROUGH
BILLINGS MT. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER MOST OF WRN NEBR WITH NEARBY
STRATUS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO DAWSON COUNTY NEBR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
FOR TODAY...A VERY MILD DAY IS IN STORE AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. H850MB TEMPERATURES
RISE TO AROUND 12 TO 15C. NEAR SURFACE MIXING WILL BE LIMITED.
STILL...HIGHS TO REACH TO 60S...POSSIBLY NEARING 70 FROM NEAR
THEDFORD TO NEAR VALENTINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH SHERIDAN AND
CHERRY COUNTY BY 23Z AFTER PEAK HEATING.
FOR TONIGHT...MODELS FORECAST THE BASE OF THE H5 CLOSED LOW TO
DEEPEN AND TRACK FROM SRN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...SWRN CO AT
06Z...TO THE ECTRL CO/NWRN KS BORDER BY 12Z. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO
TRACK TO NEAR HILL CITY KS AND DEEPEN TO NEAR 995 MB BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A RAPID INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME NORTH AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 35
MPH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SERN PNHDL...WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE ONTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ERN PNHDL
THIS EVENING. POPS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADS MUCH OF WRN NEBR IN RESPONSE TO LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 130KT JET MAX AND STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE UP TO 75MB IN
THE 290K AND 295K SFC FROM 09Z-12Z. POPS INCREASE TO 60 TO 80
PERCENT BY 12Z ACROSS THE ERN PNHDLE AND SWRN NEBR. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY AS 0-3KM MUCAPES UP TO 250 J/KG EXTEND
ACROSS THE SERN PNHDL AND SWRN NEBR AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE FCST ATTM.
A MIX OF RW AND SW IN THE ERN PNHDLE BY 09Z SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR
EAST AS CODY THROUGH IMPERIAL. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY FALL ONLY TO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S...THUS LIMITING EASTWARD EXTEND OF ANY SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED ON THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM THAT
WILL BRING A PLETHORA OF CONCERNS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SOLID RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
AND REMAIN A GOOD AGREEMENT. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
IN THAT MEASURABLE QPF...SOME OF WHICH WILL FALL AS SNOW...WILL
OCCUR WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. UNFORTUNATELY...THE FINER
DETAILS SUCH AS ULTIMATELY WHERE THE DEFORMATION BAND/S/ SET UP
AND THE THERMAL PROFILES OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE REMAIN IN
QUESTION. DESPITE BEING LESS THAN 24 HOURS OUT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE REMAIN MEDIUM AT BEST. CONSIDERING THIS WE
PLAN TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
THE SNOW FORECAST HINGES ON WHERE THE DEFORMATION ENHANCED
DYNAMIC COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME
SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES ON WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...WE
HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT A DEFORMATION BAND WILL EMERGE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AROUND OR AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS IS
WHERE WE FEEL THE BEST SHOT OF ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR AS THE
SNOW WILL FALL IN A FAVORABLY DIURNAL TIME PERIOD. THE SECONDARY
BAND THAT DEVELOPS AFTER 18Z IS SHOWN OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. WE ANTICIPATE
SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR WITH THE SECONDARY
BAND...BUT T/S MAY NOT SUPPORT ACCUMULATIONS. IN BOTH CASES THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONTRIBUTION OF NEGATIVE EPV IN ADVANCE AND
JUST ALONG THE ADVANCING DEFORMATION. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSNOW. IF CONVECTIVE PROCESSES ARE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN THE
DEFORMATION...THEN SNOW RATES WILL EASILY OVERCOME THE WARM GROUND
TEMPS /SUB-SOIL TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S/ AND SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE DOWNPLAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. SO ALL IN ALL OUR THOUGHTS
HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH...WE MAY SEE A BRIEF /COUPLE HOUR PERIOD/ OF
HIGH INTENSITY SNOW WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. IN TERMS OF
CRITERIA...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE NOT WORTHY OF A BLIZZARD
WARNING IN OUR /THE LBF CWA/ AREA...OR FOR THAT MATTER A WINTER
STORM WARNING AS WE WON/T ACCUMULATE ANYWHERE NEAR OUR CRITERIA.
THUS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE THE WAY TO GO...BUT
CONSIDERING IMPACTS...A STRONGER WORDED HIGHLIGHT MAY BE NEEDED.
WILL PUNT TO THE DAY SHIFT FOR NOW. THIS SLIGHT DELAY WILL ALLOW OUR
COLLEAGUES THE OPPORTUNITY TO FURTHER DEFINE WHERE THE DEFORMATION
BANDS WILL OCCUR AND IF CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE FA WILL
DESTROY MOISTURE FEED INTO THE SYSTEM.
WHERE WE DID MAKE CHANGES TO THE HIGHLITES WAS TO ADD
SEVERAL COUNTIES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL SANDHILLS EAST THROUGH
WHEELER COUNTY TO THE HIGH WIND WATCH. THE GUIDANCE CAME IN
SIMILAR...AND WE FELT THE ABOVE COUNTIES WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
INCLUDED. IF THE WIND WATCH IS UPGRADED...WE ANTICIPATED A
MARGINAL HIGH WIND WARNING...BUT CONSIDERING THE FALLING
QPF...IT/LL BE A MESS NONETHELESS.
THE UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER
FAR EASTERN COLORADO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT RAPIDLY ADVANCE EAST
TOWARD CENTRAL IOWA IN JUST 12 HOURS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TRANSITORY RIDGING TO FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY. THE NEXT WAVE DROPS
SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND PULLS A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY. OUR COLDEST
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED COME FRIDAY MORNING AS LOWS FALL
INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CWA WIDE. FOR THE WEEKEND THE
CONSENSUS INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING...PROVIDING FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
THE RAP MODEL INDICATES A SLIVER OF FOG FORMING 09Z- 15Z TUESDAY
MORNING FROM KMCK TO KLBF AND EAST...ABOUT 20-30 MILES WIDE.
OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ056>058-069-070.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ024>029-035>038-059-071.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE
HAS COME ASHORE AS OF MID AFTERNOON AND WV IMAGERY HAS THIS FEATURE
NOW ROUGHLY NEAR SACRAMENTO CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...A
SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT OVER MISSOURI WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE PRESENT
IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH NOTED. UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...3 PM CST READINGS RANGED FROM 56 AT
IMPERIAL...TO 64 AT VALENTINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
FAIR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. IF FOG DOES
DEVELOP IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE WHEN WINDS WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.
A VERY MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. H850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO
AROUND 12 TO 15C...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED
TODAY...SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S AND POSSIBLY NEARING 70 IN
THE SANDHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AKA THE
STORM. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WILL
TRACK FROM NORTHWESTERN KS INTO CENTRAL IOWA FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. A PLETHORA OF WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FEATURE...BEGINNING WITH STRONG WINDS...PRECIPITATION...SOME OF
WHICH WILL FALL AS SNOW...AND THE THREAT FOR SHORT DURATION WINTER
STORM OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH RESPECT TO
WINDS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN OVER NORTHERN KS
WEDS MORNING...THEN TRACK INTO SERN NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY WEDS. INTENSE
PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 6 MB WILL SLIDE FROM SWRN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WEDS MORNING WITH H85 WINDS INCREASING TO 60+ KTS ACROSS
SWRN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BROKEN
BOW HAVE 40 KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT 18Z WEDS. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HOISTED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
FRONTIER...LINCOLN...CUSTER...LOUP...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES.
ONE DISCLAIMER HERE...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGH WIND WATCH AREA. IF TEMPERATURES TREND
DOWNWARD FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST...WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW THREAT. FURTHER WEST...IN
ADDITION TO WIND...RAIN WILL MIX WITH...THEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WEDS
MORNING. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ACROSS
THE SERN PANHANDLE...AND PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN NEBRASKA. THIS IS DUE
TO LIFT BEING MAXIMIZED DURING THE COOLEST TIME OF THE DAY AND THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL LIFT ACROSS NERN COLORADO...NW KS AND
FAR SWRN NEBRASKA IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. ATTM...THIS FORCING
APPEARS TO PEAK ACROSS FAR NWRN KS/NERN COLORADO...OR JUST OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE GENERAL LOCATION OF THIS POTENTIAL BAND OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM DEUEL
COUNTY...EAST TO KEITH...AND SOUTH TO CHASE AND HAYES COUNTIES FOR
WEDS MORNING/AFTN. IF THIS BAND DOES DECIDE TO TREND FARTHER NORTH
WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...WE MAY HAVE A SHORT DURATION...HIGH
IMPACT WINTER EVENT ON OUR HANDS WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS POSSIBLE
WEDS MORNING. FURTHER EAST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN KS WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A NICE DEFORMATION BAND
OF PCPN FROM SWRN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. BL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEDS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD
FAVOR ALL RAIN...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DYNAMIC COOLING IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES ARE GREAT ENOUGH. FOR
THIS...DECIDED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW MIX WEDS
AFTERNOON IN THE SW...EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH ARE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEFORMATION BAND
AND HIGHEST PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES. AGAIN...IF TEMPERATURES TREND
A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS...ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND HIGH TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY BE SEEN INVOF
THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PCPN. ATTM...FCST TEMPS ARE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
ALL SNOW IN THE EAST WEDS...AND HAVE OPTED FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX WITH
NO ACCUMS. BY WEDS EVENING...WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF SOME AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDS EVENING...BUT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
ON THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IOWA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. H85
WINDS INCREASE TO 40 TO 45 KTS ACROSS THE NERN CWA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL BE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
EVEN WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REACH THE 40S AS H85 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO -2C.
BEYOND THURSDAY...THE MODELS TREND TOWARD BUILDING A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING DRY
AND MILD TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A HINT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTM...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO A DRY FORECAST WILL BE RETAINED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
THE RAP MODEL INDICATES A SLIVER OF FOG FORMING 09Z- 15Z TUESDAY
MORNING FROM KMCK TO KLBF AND EAST...ABOUT 20-30 MILES WIDE.
OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ056>058-069-070.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ026>029-037-038-059-071.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
115 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD, WILL MOVE NORTH...SPREADING RAIN AND DRIZZLE
INTO THE AREA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL NY FROM THE SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST STEADIEST
RAIN HAS BEEN FROM NORTH CENTRAL PA NORTH TO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES AREA. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE SYRACUSE AREA
AND MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH 3 PM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. PREVIIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.
UPDATED AT 1030 AM... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST PA LATE THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER HOLDING OVER CENTRAL NY. EXPECT
RAIN TO EXPAND AND MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 30-35 KTS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO WELL-ORGANIZED
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST SREF IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO SHOWING HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE QPF
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
OVER A QUARTER INCH THRU 00Z OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR ALSO ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ORGANIZING INTO A LARGE AREA OF RAIN
COVERING MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TIMING TO COVER FOR THESE LATEST TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
630 AM UPDATE...SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN HAS MADE ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS SYRACUSE. HOWEVER STEADIER
RAIN REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POP/T/TD
GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS BUT OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO
IMPACT THE AREA WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR TODAY. GENERALLY, PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE SLOWER MOVING INTO MOST AREAS THOUGH A SMALL AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED OVER NE PA EXTENDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
PERIOD EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY
MAKE INROADS INTO THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TIMING IS DELAYED
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THROUGH THIS MORNING THE AREA WILL BE
IN GAP BETWEEN STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN TO THE EAST NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW AND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THUS, ANY PRECIP DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LIGHT AND
PATCHY.
STEADIER AND SOMEWHAT HEAVIER RAIN OVERSPREADS THE CWA FROM SW TO
NE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD
AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
SWINGS NE TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT THIS RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE WINDING DOWN TO SHOWERS WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS FROM A POSITION NEAR THE DELMARVA EAST TO
NEAR CAPE COD BY 12Z WED. WE UTILIZED AN OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WEIGHTING MOST HEAVILY TOWARD A
GFS/NAM/EC BLEND AS THE GEM REG LOOKS A LITTLE TOO STRONG AND TOO
FAR WEST WITH SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS AND THUS TOO
HEAVY WITH QPF OVER AREA. GENERALLY EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF JUST
UNDER A HALF INCH TO NEAR AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...HEAVIEST
OVER NE PA INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND LIGHTEST OVER NE PARTS OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW KEEPS UPSLOPE NORTHERLY COMPONENT GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING CONTINUING CLOUD COVER WITH THE CHANCE OF
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR THE MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORECAST GUIDANCE AND THUS MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
WE SHAKE THE EFFECTS OF THIS FIRST LOW BRIEFLY LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOTION TO END PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CLEAR OUT IN THIS COL ZONE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ON THURSDAY...MODELS KEY IN ON ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE
PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES. THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT IN
THIS AREA WITH SHOWERS AND MILD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BLUSTERY
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
STEADIER RAIN/SHOWERS COME TO AN END FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS
OCCLUSION PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST HOWEVER GUSTY W/SW FLOW CONTINUES
IN ITS WAKE WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO UPPER LOW
OVER ONTARIO COUPLED WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM THE LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC/SUPERBLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A POWERFUL UL LOW ROTATING ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED OVER NY/PA, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FALL AS RAIN, THOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MIX IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND IN THE
COOLER REGIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY SUNDAY, THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
HEIGHTS OVER NY/PA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
WARMER THAN NORMAL START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN IS SLIDING NORTHWARD, WITH TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF MODERATE
PRECIPITATION DIVIDED BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND COASTAL
FEATURE. RAIN WILL INCREASE OVER OUR TERMINALS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z, LEADING TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
WED DAY-WED NGT... MAINLY VFR.
THU... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1213 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD, WILL MOVE NORTH...SPREADING RAIN AND DRIZZLE
INTO THE AREA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1030 AM... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST PA LATE THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER HOLDING OVER CENTRAL NY. EXPECT
RAIN TO EXPAND AND MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 30-35 KTS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO WELL-ORGANIZED
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST SREF IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO SHOWING HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE QPF
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
OVER A QUARTER INCH THRU 00Z OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR ALSO ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ORGANIZING INTO A LARGE AREA OF RAIN
COVERING MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TIMING TO COVER FOR THESE LATEST TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
630 AM UPDATE...SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN HAS MADE ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS SYRACUSE. HOWEVER STEADIER
RAIN REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POP/T/TD
GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS BUT OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO
IMPACT THE AREA WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR TODAY. GENERALLY, PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE SLOWER MOVING INTO MOST AREAS THOUGH A SMALL AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED OVER NE PA EXTENDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
PERIOD EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY
MAKE INROADS INTO THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TIMING IS DELAYED
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THROUGH THIS MORNING THE AREA WILL BE
IN GAP BETWEEN STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN TO THE EAST NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW AND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THUS, ANY PRECIP DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LIGHT AND
PATCHY.
STEADIER AND SOMEWHAT HEAVIER RAIN OVERSPREADS THE CWA FROM SW TO
NE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD
AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
SWINGS NE TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT THIS RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE WINDING DOWN TO SHOWERS WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS FROM A POSITION NEAR THE DELMARVA EAST TO
NEAR CAPE COD BY 12Z WED. WE UTILIZED AN OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WEIGHTING MOST HEAVILY TOWARD A
GFS/NAM/EC BLEND AS THE GEM REG LOOKS A LITTLE TOO STRONG AND TOO
FAR WEST WITH SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS AND THUS TOO
HEAVY WITH QPF OVER AREA. GENERALLY EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF JUST
UNDER A HALF INCH TO NEAR AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...HEAVIEST
OVER NE PA INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND LIGHTEST OVER NE PARTS OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW KEEPS UPSLOPE NORTHERLY COMPONENT GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING CONTINUING CLOUD COVER WITH THE CHANCE OF
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR THE MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORECAST GUIDANCE AND THUS MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
WE SHAKE THE EFFECTS OF THIS FIRST LOW BRIEFLY LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOTION TO END PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CLEAR OUT IN THIS COL ZONE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ON THURSDAY...MODELS KEY IN ON ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE
PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES. THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT IN
THIS AREA WITH SHOWERS AND MILD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BLUSTERY
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
STEADIER RAIN/SHOWERS COME TO AN END FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS
OCCLUSION PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST HOWEVER GUSTY W/SW FLOW CONTINUES
IN ITS WAKE WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO UPPER LOW
OVER ONTARIO COUPLED WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM THE LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC/SUPERBLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A POWERFUL UL LOW ROTATING ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED OVER NY/PA, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FALL AS RAIN, THOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MIX IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND IN THE
COOLER REGIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY SUNDAY, THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
HEIGHTS OVER NY/PA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
WARMER THAN NORMAL START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN IS SLIDING NORTHWARD, WITH TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF MODERATE
PRECIPITATION DIVIDED BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND COASTAL
FEATURE. RAIN WILL INCREASE OVER OUR TERMINALS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z, LEADING TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
WED DAY-WED NGT... MAINLY VFR.
THU... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1045 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD, WILL MOVE NORTH...SPREADING RAIN AND DRIZZLE
INTO THE AREA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1030 AM... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST PA LATE THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER HOLDING OVER CENTRAL NY. EXPECT
RAIN TO EXPAND AND MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 30-35 KTS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO WELL-ORGANIZED
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST SREF IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO SHOWING HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE QPF
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
OVER A QUARTER INCH THRU 00Z OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR ALSO ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ORGANIZING INTO A LARGE AREA OF RAIN
COVERING MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TIMING TO COVER FOR THESE LATEST TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
630 AM UPDATE...SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN HAS MADE ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS SYRACUSE. HOWEVER STEADIER
RAIN REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POP/T/TD
GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS BUT OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO
IMPACT THE AREA WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR TODAY. GENERALLY, PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE SLOWER MOVING INTO MOST AREAS THOUGH A SMALL AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED OVER NE PA EXTENDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
PERIOD EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY
MAKE INROADS INTO THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TIMING IS DELAYED
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THROUGH THIS MORNING THE AREA WILL BE
IN GAP BETWEEN STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN TO THE EAST NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW AND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THUS, ANY PRECIP DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LIGHT AND
PATCHY.
STEADIER AND SOMEWHAT HEAVIER RAIN OVERSPREADS THE CWA FROM SW TO
NE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD
AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
SWINGS NE TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT THIS RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE WINDING DOWN TO SHOWERS WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS FROM A POSITION NEAR THE DELMARVA EAST TO
NEAR CAPE COD BY 12Z WED. WE UTILIZED AN OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WEIGHTING MOST HEAVILY TOWARD A
GFS/NAM/EC BLEND AS THE GEM REG LOOKS A LITTLE TOO STRONG AND TOO
FAR WEST WITH SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS AND THUS TOO
HEAVY WITH QPF OVER AREA. GENERALLY EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF JUST
UNDER A HALF INCH TO NEAR AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...HEAVIEST
OVER NE PA INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND LIGHTEST OVER NE PARTS OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW KEEPS UPSLOPE NORTHERLY COMPONENT GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING CONTINUING CLOUD COVER WITH THE CHANCE OF
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR THE MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORECAST GUIDANCE AND THUS MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
WE SHAKE THE EFFECTS OF THIS FIRST LOW BRIEFLY LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOTION TO END PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CLEAR OUT IN THIS COL ZONE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ON THURSDAY...MODELS KEY IN ON ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE
PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES. THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT IN
THIS AREA WITH SHOWERS AND MILD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BLUSTERY
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
STEADIER RAIN/SHOWERS COME TO AN END FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS
OCCLUSION PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST HOWEVER GUSTY W/SW FLOW CONTINUES
IN ITS WAKE WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO UPPER LOW
OVER ONTARIO COUPLED WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM THE LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WESTERN RIDGE - EASTERN TROF
PATTERN, AS A POWERFUL CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS LOWER ONTARIO AND
DRAGS COOL AIR INTO WESTERN NY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING VERY LITTLE AS IT SITS AND SPINS ALONG THE
ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. WE EXPECT SOME MINOR PRECIPITATION
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FALL AS RAIN, THOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MIX IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND IN THE
COOLER REGIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY, THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
HEIGHTS OVER NY/PA.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC LOW DVLPS AND MVES UP THE CST WHILE AN UPR LOW LIFTS THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN THRU
CNTRL NY AND NEPA ON TUE. AHD OF THE SYSTEM...LL MOISTURE AND LGT
DRIZZLE WILL DVLP MVFR CIGS IN MOST PLACES...ALONG WITH OCNL IFR
CIGS ON THE HILLTOPS WITH LGT SELY WINDS. CRNT MODEL TIMING WLD
BRING STEADY PCPN INTO MUCH OF THE REGION AFT 18Z. LGT PCPN AND
LWRD CIGS AND VSBY ARE XPCTD TO LINGER THRU 12Z WED.
.OUTLOOK...
WED DAY-WED NGT... MAINLY VFR.
THU... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...SFC HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR SE CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING
IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SAVE FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS. LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S.
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO FAVORED INLAND LOCATIONS GIVEN XOVER
TEMPS BEING REACHED IN SOME AREAS AND GUIDANCE INDICATING NEAR 0
T-TD SPREADS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ENE PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH ENC THU EVENING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT BEST FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA AND
SHOULD JUST SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SW FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 70S...COULD SEE A FEW UPPER 70S IN SW LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A COOL WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK. VERY DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT THE MID
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
EASTERN CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE STATE SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE
VERY DRY AND EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY WITH
READINGS AROUND 70 DEGREES THEN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE MID 50S AND MID TO UPPER
50S SUNDAY. MIN TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DROP DOWN TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S INLAND SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY SETTING UP A
RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AND INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR INTO
EASTERN NC. THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TEMPERED BY
THE PERSISTENCE OF VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE REGION AND LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING THUS THINKING THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ALTHOUGH THE SET UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S MONDAY
TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
THOUGH SOME PATCHY IFR/MVFR RADIATION FOG DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRES BRINGS CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT
NEARS. LATEST NARRE AND HRRR AS WELL AS LAMP GUID INDICATE PATCHY
FG/BR DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED TEMPO BR/FG TO ALL
BUT KOAJ THROUGH AROUND 11Z THUR.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WITH
GUSTS 17-20 KT DEVELOPING BY AROUND 15Z.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DEEP DRY AIR AND HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS WITH SUB VFR BASES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...LATEST OBS SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
5-10 KT...WITH SEAS 3-4FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 2-3FT SOUTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THU...WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25KT
LATE THU AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. ISSUED SCA FOR
THE WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THU EVENING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR BUILD
OVER THE WATERS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG NW FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER NORTHERLY FLOW 10
TO 15 KT WILL BE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO
SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ135-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/TL/BM
MARINE...JME/CQD/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
701 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1019MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE APPALACHIANS. HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND CREST
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S.
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO FAVORED INLAND LOCATIONS GIVEN XOVER
TEMPS BEING REACHED IN SOME AREAS AND GUIDANCE INDICATING NEAR 0
T-TD SPREADS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ENE PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH ENC THU EVENING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT BEST FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA AND
SHOULD JUST SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SW FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 70S...COULD SEE A FEW UPPER 70S IN SW LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A COOL WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK. VERY DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT THE MID
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
EASTERN CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE STATE SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE
VERY DRY AND EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY WITH
READINGS AROUND 70 DEGREES THEN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE MID 50S AND MID TO UPPER
50S SUNDAY. MIN TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DROP DOWN TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S INLAND SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY SETTING UP A
RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AND INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR INTO
EASTERN NC. THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TEMPERED BY
THE PERSISTENCE OF VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE REGION AND LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING THUS THINKING THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ALTHOUGH THE SET UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S MONDAY
TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
THOUGH SOME PATCHY IFR/MVFR RADIATION FOG DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRES BRINGS CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT
NEARS. LATEST NARRE AND HRRR AS WELL AS LAMP GUID INDICATE PATCHY
FG/BR DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED TEMPO BR/FG TO ALL
BUT KOAJ THROUGH AROUND 11Z THUR.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WITH
GUSTS 17-20 KT DEVELOPING BY AROUND 15Z.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DEEP DRY AIR AND HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS WITH SUB VFR BASES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...LATEST OBS SHOW W/N WINDS 5-15KT...WITH SEAS
3-5FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 2-4FT SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING...THEN MOVING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN
10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS THU...WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF IT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25KT LATE THU AFTERNOON WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. ISSUED SCA FOR THE WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THU EVENING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR BUILD
OVER THE WATERS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG NW FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER NORTHERLY FLOW 10
TO 15 KT WILL BE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO
SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ135-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/TL/BM
MARINE...JME/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
641 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BENEATH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 300
PM FOLLOWS...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE-ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A VERY DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN
CLEAR SKIES...AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. MOS CONSENSUS INDICATES LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO A 45- 50
DEGREE RANGE...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWING
TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH IS EXCELLENT NEWS FOR THE
HANDFUL OF RIVERS STILL IN FLOOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY...WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO ILLUSTRATE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONCE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA WITH
WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILD
INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S...DROPPING TO AROUND 50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COOL BUT SUNNY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL BE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM FRIDAY...AND TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS...RISING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DURING THE AFTNS...AND DROPPING
INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S AT NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE
QUITE DRY...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE THE BEST FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S WELL INLAND...AND
FROST IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BUT MAINTAIN A
RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS OCCURS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MTN WEST AND GREAT PLAINS...DRIVING
ANOMALOUS RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING TEMPERATURES...850MB MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS
WELL SO AS TEMPS CLIMB TO ABOVE CLIMO...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. STILL...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE EACH DAY EVEN AS THE COLUMN
BEGINS TO SATURATE. BY WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND WILL
RAMP POP UPWARDS FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED
BEYOND THIS PERIOD...SO POP WILL REMAIN SILENT ON D7 EVEN THOUGH
SCHC WILL BE THE OFFICIAL CATEGORY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS TONIGHT. EVEN WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE FOG...GROUND FOG AT BEST. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO WIND DIRECTION
THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE HRRR AND RUC
MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL...PARTICULARLY WITH
THE SOUTH WINDS NEAR GEORGETOWN COUNTY AND THE STRONGER (12 KT) WEST
WINDS OBSERVED OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS CURRENTLY. THESE MODELS WERE
BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS RELATIVELY QUICKLY OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BECOME GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS IN A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT...HIGHEST NEAR THE SHOALS OFF
OF CAPE FEAR.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SCEC LATE FRIDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATES A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15
TO 20 KTS THURSDAY MORNING TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BE 3
TO 5 FT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KTS. COULD SEE
ANOTHER SURGE LATE FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND
20 KTS...WHICH COULD WARRANT A SCEC. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT ON
FRIDAY...WITH 4 TO 5 FOOTERS LATE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ONGOING
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL EASE THROUGH THE AFTN. AN ADVISORY OR
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE EAST. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD LATE SATURDAY
AND THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO VEER FROM NORTH...ALL THE WAY AROUND TO EAST ON
MONDAY...ALONG WITH DECREASING SPEEDS TO 5-10 KTS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY ON THE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...REACHING 3-5 FT...BEFORE FALLING OFF TO 2-3 FT
SUNDAY...1-2 FT MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA/CRM
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1204 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
WILL GENERALLY KEEP LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WHERE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE. DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED BUT
PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN MOST AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
UPDATE TO EXTEND DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO SD BORDER MOST AREAS
EXCEPT SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND UPDATE PRECIP
CHANCES.
DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SOUTH. THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO BRING FOG ALL THE WAY TO THE ND/SD BORDER. ADDITIONAL EXPANSION
OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
DELAYED PRECIP ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY SEVERAL HOURS.
STILL NOTHING APPEARING ON RADAR AT THIS TIME AND HIGH RES MODELS
SHOW A SLOWER TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...AND LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE HAVE ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA. RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO DRIFT
THIS EXPANSE OF LOWER STRATUS AND FOG SOUTH...POSSIBLY REACHING
THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE
ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WILL APPROACH THE DAKOTAS...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS RAIN/SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND STRONG WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TWO UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES ARE DEPICTED BY THE 12
UTC MODEL SUITE. THE FIRST ONE ACROSS KANSAS/NEBRASKA WILL HAVE
LITTLE INFLUENCE ON NORTH DAKOTA WEATHER. HOWEVER...A SECOND 500MB
LOW IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL ASCENT
TO SPARK SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS
ARE DEPICTING ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDING TEMPERATURE PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WHERE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNSATURATED THUS ELIMINATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE CREATION.
FURTHER NORTH WHERE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE SURFACE ARE
EXPECTED...SNOW IS THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING WEDNESDAY LOW...A CLIPPER
IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY ENTER NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
SIMILAR TO THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...A MUCH MORE
ROBUST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH THE THURSDAY CLIPPER. THIS COULD LEAD TO STRONG
WINDS THURSDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ENSEMBLES INDICATE 40 TO
50 KNOT WINDS AT 850 MB FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR QUITE AS STRONG AS
PREVIOUS WIND EVENTS THIS YEAR...HOWEVER WIND HEADLINES APPEAR
LIKELY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. ADDITIONALLY...IF LIGHT SNOW DOES
DEVELOP THURSDAY...WITH WINDS AROUND 40 MPH VISIBILITIES COULD
RAPIDLY REDUCE CAUSING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD IFR ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES AS SHALLOW COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1005 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
UPDATE TO EXTEND DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO SD BORDER MOST AREAS
EXCEPT SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND UPDATE PRECIP
CHANCES.
DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SOUTH. THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO BRING FOG ALL THE WAY TO THE ND/SD BORDER. ADDITIONAL EXPANSION
OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
DELAYED PRECIP ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY SEVERAL HOURS.
STILL NOTHING APPEARING ON RADAR AT THIS TIME AND HIGH RES MODELS
SHOW A SLOWER TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...AND LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE HAVE ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA. RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO DRIFT
THIS EXPANSE OF LOWER STRATUS AND FOG SOUTH...POSSIBLY REACHING
THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE
ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WILL APPROACH THE DAKOTAS...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS RAIN/SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND STRONG WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TWO UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES ARE DEPICTED BY THE 12
UTC MODEL SUITE. THE FIRST ONE ACROSS KANSAS/NEBRASKA WILL HAVE
LITTLE INFLUENCE ON NORTH DAKOTA WEATHER. HOWEVER...A SECOND 500MB
LOW IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL ASCENT
TO SPARK SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS
ARE DEPICTING ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDING TEMPERATURE PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WHERE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNSATURATED THUS ELIMINATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE CREATION.
FURTHER NORTH WHERE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE SURFACE ARE
EXPECTED...SNOW IS THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING WEDNESDAY LOW...A CLIPPER
IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY ENTER NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
SIMILAR TO THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...A MUCH MORE
ROBUST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH THE THURSDAY CLIPPER. THIS COULD LEAD TO STRONG
WINDS THURSDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ENSEMBLES INDICATE 40 TO
50 KNOT WINDS AT 850 MB FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR QUITE AS STRONG AS
PREVIOUS WIND EVENTS THIS YEAR...HOWEVER WIND HEADLINES APPEAR
LIKELY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. ADDITIONALLY...IF LIGHT SNOW DOES
DEVELOP THURSDAY...WITH WINDS AROUND 40 MPH VISIBILITIES COULD
RAPIDLY REDUCE CAUSING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. VSBY AND CIGS SHOULD SLIGHTLY IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR NDZ005-
012-013-018>023-025-031>037-040>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
632 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND UPDATE PRECIP
CHANCES.
DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SOUTH. THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO BRING FOG ALL THE WAY TO THE ND/SD BORDER. ADDITIONALEXPANSION
OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
DELAYED PRECIP ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY SEVERAL HOURS.
STILL NOTHING APPEARING ON RADAR AT THIS TIME AND HIGH RES MODELS
SHOW A SLOWER TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...AND LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE HAVE ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA. RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO DRIFT
THIS EXPANSE OF LOWER STRATUS AND FOG SOUTH...POSSIBLY REACHING
THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE
ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WILL APPROACH THE DAKOTAS...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS RAIN/SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND STRONG WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TWO UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES ARE DEPICTED BY THE 12
UTC MODEL SUITE. THE FIRST ONE ACROSS KANSAS/NEBRASKA WILL HAVE
LITTLE INFLUENCE ON NORTH DAKOTA WEATHER. HOWEVER...A SECOND 500MB
LOW IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL ASCENT
TO SPARK SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS
ARE DEPICTING ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDING TEMPERATURE PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WHERE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNSATURATED THUS ELIMINATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE CREATION.
FURTHER NORTH WHERE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE SURFACE ARE
EXPECTED...SNOW IS THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING WEDNESDAY LOW...A CLIPPER
IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY ENTER NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
SIMILAR TO THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...A MUCH MORE
ROBUST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH THE THURSDAY CLIPPER. THIS COULD LEAD TO STRONG
WINDS THURSDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ENSEMBLES INDICATE 40 TO
50 KNOT WINDS AT 850 MB FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR QUITE AS STRONG AS
PREVIOUS WIND EVENTS THIS YEAR...HOWEVER WIND HEADLINES APPEAR
LIKELY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. ADDITIONALLY...IF LIGHT SNOW DOES
DEVELOP THURSDAY...WITH WINDS AROUND 40 MPH VISIBILITIES COULD
RAPIDLY REDUCE CAUSING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. VSBY AND CIGS SHOULD SLIGHTLY IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031-032.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
401 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...AND LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE HAVE ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA. RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO DRIFT
THIS EXPANSE OF LOWER STRATUS AND FOG SOUTH...POSSIBLY REACHING
THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE
ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WILL APPROACH THE DAKOTAS...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS RAIN/SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND STRONG WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TWO UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES ARE DEPICTED BY THE 12
UTC MODEL SUITE. THE FIRST ONE ACROSS KANSAS/NEBRASKA WILL HAVE
LITTLE INFLUENCE ON NORTH DAKOTA WEATHER. HOWEVER...A SECOND 500MB
LOW IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL ASCENT
TO SPARK SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS
ARE DEPICTING ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDING TEMPERATURE PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WHERE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNSATURATED THUS ELIMINATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE CREATION.
FURTHER NORTH WHERE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE SURFACE ARE
EXPECTED...SNOW IS THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING WEDNESDAY LOW...A CLIPPER
IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY ENTER NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
SIMILAR TO THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...A MUCH MORE
ROBUST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH THE THURSDAY CLIPPER. THIS COULD LEAD TO STRONG
WINDS THURSDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ENSEMBLES INDICATE 40 TO
50 KNOT WINDS AT 850 MB FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR QUITE AS STRONG AS
PREVIOUS WIND EVENTS THIS YEAR...HOWEVER WIND HEADLINES APPEAR
LIKELY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. ADDITIONALLY...IF LIGHT SNOW DOES
DEVELOP THURSDAY...WITH WINDS AROUND 40 MPH VISIBILITIES COULD
RAPIDLY REDUCE CAUSING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE AND/OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ALREADY ARRIVED AT KISN AND WILL IMPACT KMOT
AROUND 06-07 UTC TONIGHT...AND KBIS/KDIK/KJMS BY 12-14 UTC
TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
100 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 16
UTC TUESDAY MORNING...AND A SLIGHT LOWERING OF MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE
LATEST HRRR ITERATIONS REMAIN BULLISH ABOUT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND HAVE DONE A
GOOD JOB OF CAPTURING FOGGY CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWEST THUS FAR.
OTHER THAN THAT...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 04 UTC. STRATUS AND FOG IS JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE 00-03 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS
EXPANDING THE STRATUS AND FOG TO NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY
16-17 UTC. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO REMAINS
UNCHANGED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 509 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 22 UTC. STILL ANTICIPATING AS DEPICTED BY
THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS THE STRATUS BANK ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA TO PROPAGATE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN THE ND
HIGHWAY 200 AND I-94 CORRIDORS BY 12 UTC. WITH STRATUS BUILD
DOWN...FOG IS EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ABOVE THE STRATUS.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NORTHWEST WHERE SURFACE
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH FREEZING LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WARM ROADS MAY LIMIT THE THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS INVOLVE CLOUDS AND FOG, MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURES. AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL FINALLY
BE MOVING INLAND MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW SURFACE CANADIAN AIR TO
INFILTRATE THE REGION BRINGING A SHALLOW LAYER OF COOL
TEMPERATURES THAT MAY SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY. MUCH COOLER FOR TUESDAY AS WE RETURN TO
THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WITH HIGHS
STILL IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. VERY
MODEST POPS ARE CALLED FRO TUESDAY AS THE MAJORITY OF THE BETTER
FORCING REMAINS WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER EXPECT THE
ABOVE MENTIONED FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTHWEST WHERE LOW LEVEL
SATURATION IS TOPPED BY DRY AIR IN A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT
GIVING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME MORNING FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO
LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
QUIETER WEATHER PERIOD FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW OR
ALL SNOW ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY/MID
NOVEMBER. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM ONE HALF UP TO ONE INCH
POSSIBLE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL TUESDAY NIGHT-WED MORNING.
BRIEF S/WV RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV/CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. STRONG CAA AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WILL SEE STRONG
WIND MAGNITUDES FOR THURSDAY. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE PEAK GUST
POTENTIAL. 12Z GFS STILL SUPPORTS HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA...WITH OTHER MODELS MORE OF ADVISORY STRENGTH. OPTED TO
KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT`S MID SHIFT AS IS FOR
AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST ISSUANCE...WHICH LEANS ON THE STRONGER
SIDE FOR WIND SPEEDS. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHEST QPF OR SNOW AMOUNTS FORECAST ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST. 0.5" TO 1" OF SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. WILL KEEP CURRENT HWO WORDING MENTIONING STRONG
WINDS AND POSSIBLE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 40S AND
50S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE AND/OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ALREADY ARRIVED AT KISN AND WILL IMPACT KMOT
AROUND 06-07 UTC TONIGHT...AND KBIS/KDIK/KJMS BY 12-14 UTC
TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1028 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 04 UTC. STRATUS AND FOG IS JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE 00-03 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS
EXPANDING THE STRATUS AND FOG TO NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY
16-17 UTC. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO REMAINS
UNCHANGED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 509 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 22 UTC. STILL ANTICIPATING AS DEPICTED BY
THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS THE STRATUS BANK ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA TO PROPAGATE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN THE ND
HIGHWAY 200 AND I-94 CORRIDORS BY 12 UTC. WITH STRATUS BUILD
DOWN...FOG IS EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ABOVE THE STRATUS.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NORTHWEST WHERE SURFACE
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH FREEZING LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WARM ROADS MAY LIMIT THE THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS INVOLVE CLOUDS AND FOG, MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURES. AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL FINALLY
BE MOVING INLAND MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW SURFACE CANADIAN AIR TO
INFILTRATE THE REGION BRINGING A SHALLOW LAYER OF COOL
TEMPERATURES THAT MAY SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY. MUCH COOLER FOR TUESDAY AS WE RETURN TO
THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WITH HIGHS
STILL IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. VERY
MODEST POPS ARE CALLED FRO TUESDAY AS THE MAJORITY OF THE BETTER
FORCING REMAINS WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER EXPECT THE
ABOVE MENTIONED FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTHWEST WHERE LOW LEVEL
SATURATION IS TOPPED BY DRY AIR IN A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT
GIVING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME MORNING FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO
LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
QUIETER WEATHER PERIOD FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW OR
ALL SNOW ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY/MID
NOVEMBER. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM ONE HALF UP TO ONE INCH
POSSIBLE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL TUESDAY NIGHT-WED MORNING.
BRIEF S/WV RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV/CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. STRONG CAA AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WILL SEE STRONG
WIND MAGNITUDES FOR THURSDAY. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE PEAK GUST
POTENTIAL. 12Z GFS STILL SUPPORTS HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA...WITH OTHER MODELS MORE OF ADVISORY STRENGTH. OPTED TO
KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT`S MID SHIFT AS IS FOR
AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST ISSUANCE...WHICH LEANS ON THE STRONGER
SIDE FOR WIND SPEEDS. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHEST QPF OR SNOW AMOUNTS FORECAST ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST. 0.5" TO 1" OF SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. WILL KEEP CURRENT HWO WORDING MENTIONING STRONG
WINDS AND POSSIBLE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 40S AND
50S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE AND/OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ALREADY ARRIVED AT KISN AND WILL IMPACT KMOT
AROUND 06-07 UTC TONIGHT...AND KBIS/KDIK/KJMS BY 12-14 UTC
TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
238 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER
AIR REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH TO QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEPARTED THE
CWA. RADAR CURRENTLY OVERSHOOTING THE LOW TOPPED ECHOES IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...SO STILL KEEP HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AREAS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO ADDED DRIZZLE...WHICH SHOULD LINGER
IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS PAST 06Z TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND
NAM ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PAINTING QPF...AND HAS IT
CONTINUING WELL INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD.
KEEP THE CLEARING ON THE SLOW SIDE GIVEN THE SLOW RETREAT OF THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE AT A MINIMUM
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE USED THIS AS JUSTIFICATION FOR
HIGHER CLOUD COVER AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...AND COULD SEE THE
TRI STATE AREA CLEAR BEFORE MORNING. SOME LATE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE HERE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EASE. RECENT LIGHT RAIN
ALSO HELPS THE CAUSE.
WITH BETTER INSOLATION IN THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES WILL IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG MID LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM THE MS
VALLEY...NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS ARE
IN DESCENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY IN THEIR QPF
FIELDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THE SREF LAGS THE NAM FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. PREFER THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.
MODELS SUGGEST STRONG H850 SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 40 TO 60 KNOTS ALONG
THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER FROM THE MIXING LAYER OF 26 TO 36 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...INCREASED WIND GUST IN THE 30S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
IN THE 20S LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO
STAY LIQUID.
THE NAM KEEPS MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE LOW LEVELS. SUSPECT
LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OR
MOVE EAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST LATE
THURSDAY.
DRY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
USED THE ALL CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FORESEEN FROM 24 HOURS AGO...IS TO BE
A BIT FASTER BY 3 TO 6 HOURS BRINGING THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ESE FRIDAY EVENING...IN THE LOW LEVEL COLD POOL FRIDAY
EVENING. LIKEWISE...WILL BE A FEW HOURS FASTER LIFTING OUT THAT COLD
POOL SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. STILL WILL LEAVE 20 TO 40
POPS OVER OUR NE COUNTIES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN SHIFTED A FEW HOURS EARLIER.
AGAIN A COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES NOT COLD ENOUGH ALOFT...AND MOISTURE NOT DEEP
ENOUGH...FOR GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE CLOUDS.
WILL STILL HAVE NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY EVENING OF 20 TO
30 MPH... WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850 MB FLOW STILL RUNNING
AROUND 40 KNOTS.
WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS FIGURED IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT... STILL WENT A BIT COLDER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT CWA.
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HAVE CLOUDS/MOISTURE INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN 12Z GFS INCREASING
POPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF... WITH A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE AFTER THE PERSISTENT
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN LOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS/DRIZZLE DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CRW/HTS/PKB SITES. CLEARING IS
EXPECTED...AND GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING UP ON VALLEY FOG AT THIS
TIME. THIS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED AGAIN AT THE 00Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUANCE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE CONDITIONS...AND THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...WILL PUSH OUT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:MAY NEED TO ADD FOG TONIGHT. NORTHERN
TERMINALS MAY BOUNCE FROM IFR TO MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M M M
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
205 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH TO QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEPARTED THE
CWA. RADAR CURRENTLY OVERSHOOTING THE LOW TOPPED ECHOES IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...SO STILL KEEP HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AREAS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO ADDED DRIZZLE...WHICH SHOULD LINGER
IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS PAST 06Z TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND
NAM ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PAINTING QPF...AND HAS IT
CONTINUING WELL INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD.
KEEP THE CLEARING ON THE SLOW SIDE GIVEN THE SLOW RETREAT OF THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE AT A MINIMUM
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE USED THIS AS JUSTIFICATION FOR
HIGHER CLOUD COVER AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...AND COULD SEE THE
TRI STATE AREA CLEAR BEFORE MORNING. SOME LATE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE HERE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EASE. RECENT LIGHT RAIN
ALSO HELPS THE CAUSE.
WITH BETTER INSOLATION IN THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES WILL IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT. MODELS ALSO HAVE MORE OF A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THEREFORE...WILL RAISE POPS SOME.
MESO NAM IS SHOWING A DECENT LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK BEHIND THE FRONT
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING...THIS MAKES SENSE...SO WILL RAISE SKY COVER SOME.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FORESEEN FROM 24 HOURS AGO...IS TO BE
A BIT FASTER BY 3 TO 6 HOURS BRINGING THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ESE FRIDAY EVENING...IN THE LOW LEVEL COLD POOL FRIDAY
EVENING. LIKEWISE...WILL BE A FEW HOURS FASTER LIFTING OUT THAT COLD
POOL SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. STILL WILL LEAVE 20 TO 40
POPS OVER OUR NE COUNTIES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN SHIFTED A FEW HOURS EARLIER.
AGAIN A COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES NOT COLD ENOUGH ALOFT...AND MOISTURE NOT DEEP
ENOUGH...FOR GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE CLOUDS.
WILL STILL HAVE NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY EVENING OF 20 TO
30 MPH... WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850 MB FLOW STILL RUNNING
AROUND 40 KNOTS.
WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS FIGURED IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT... STILL WENT A BIT COLDER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT CWA.
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HAVE CLOUDS/MOISTURE INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN 12Z GFS INCREASING
POPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF... WITH A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE AFTER THE PERSISTENT
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN LOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS/DRIZZLE DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CRW/HTS/PKB SITES. CLEARING IS
EXPECTED...AND GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING UP ON VALLEY FOG AT THIS
TIME. THIS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED AGAIN AT THE 00Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUANCE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE CONDITIONS...AND THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...WILL PUSH OUT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:MAY NEED TO ADD FOG TONIGHT. NORTHERN
TERMINALS MAY BOUNCE FROM IFR TO MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M M M
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
201 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH TO QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEPARTED THE
CWA. RADAR CURRENTLY OVERSHOOTING THE LOW TOPPED ECHOES IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...SO STILL KEEP HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AREAS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO ADDED DRIZZLE...WHICH SHOULD LINGER
IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS PAST 06Z TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND
NAM ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PAINTING QPF...AND HAS IT
CONTINUING WELL INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD.
KEEP THE CLEARING ON THE SLOW SIDE GIVEN THE SLOW RETREAT OF THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE AT A MINIMUM
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE USED THIS AS JUSTIFICATION FOR
HIGHER CLOUD COVER AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...AND COULD SEE THE
TRI STATE AREA CLEAR BEFORE MORNING. SOME LATE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE HERE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EASE. RECENT LIGHT RAIN
ALSO HELPS THE CAUSE.
WITH BETTER INSOLATION IN THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES WILL IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT. MODELS ALSO HAVE MORE OF A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THEREFORE...WILL RAISE POPS SOME.
MESO NAM IS SHOWING A DECENT LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK BEHIND THE FRONT
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING...THIS MAKES SENSE...SO WILL RAISE SKY COVER SOME.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NOVEMBER GALE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS INTO ONTARIO
THURSDAY NIGHT. YET...EXPECT THE WIND TO STILL BE NOTICEABLE HERE INTO
SATURDAY. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE 850 MB MOISTURE
THINNING. SECONDARY MID LEVEL 500 MB TROF WHIPS THROUGH UPPER OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD POOL OVER US ON
SATURDAY. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...WENT COLDER SATURDAY WITH MORE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH...BUT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN
SKY GRID AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA. LESS CLOUDS IN NE KY
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES COMPARED TO THE CKB TO EKN CORRIDOR.
WITH 850 MB WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS ON FRIDAY...AND GOOD MIXING FIGURED WITH THE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...INCREASED WINDS ON FRIDAY. SOME 30 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE.
BASING FORECAST FOR SATURDAY ON 850 MB COLD POOL AXIS OF ABOUT MINUS 6C OVER
NRN WV SATURDAY...NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE 12Z GFS. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY AT OUR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCLUDE SOME 20 TO 40 POPS IN NE WV FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...WITH A COATING
POSSIBLE AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR GOOD
CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE CLOUDS.
WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS FIGURED IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WENT
A BIT COLDER THAN MOST GUIDANCE.
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE AFTER THE PERSISTENT
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN LOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS/DRIZZLE DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CRW/HTS/PKB SITES. CLEARING IS
EXPECTED...AND GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING UP ON VALLEY FOG AT THIS
TIME. THIS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED AGAIN AT THE 00Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUANCE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE CONDITIONS...AND THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...WILL PUSH OUT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:MAY NEED TO ADD FOG TONIGHT. NORTHERN
TERMINALS MAY BOUNCE FROM IFR TO MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M M M
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1244 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL MERGE WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE HOURLY POP GRIDS TO TRACK THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO. THE HRRR HOURLY RELFECTIVITY SEEMS
REASONABLE AND AGREES WELL WITH THE HOURLY POPS IN THE FORECAST.
JUST A SLIGHT CHANGE WAS MADE TO MAX AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR
TOL AND CAK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH IS PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A RATHER DIFFLUENT PATTERN
EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD TOPS. THE LIMITING 700 MB STREAMLINE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE IS ALIGNED WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEADY
RAIN WHICH IS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND HAS ALREADY
CLEARED THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GRADUAL
PROGRESSION TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUING TO CLEAR TO THE EAST
WHILE LEAVING EXTENSIVE LOWS CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE.
WILL HAVE DECREASING POP THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
RAIN ENDING IN THE WEST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT RISE
IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR NE OH AND NW PA.
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN OVERNIGHT ALOFT BUT AS STATED ABOVE THINK
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOWER TO DRY OUT. WILL KEEP A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IN OVERNIGHT AND THINK IT WILL BE AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY BEFORE SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS.
THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WILL HEAD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLANS AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE WEST. THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SLOW THE PRECIP DOWN AND EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO SEE RAIN. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SHOW A STACKED LOW. BECAUSE OF THIS
THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION AND IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY WILL START OUT WET ALL AREAS BUT BY LATE IN
THE DAY THE PRECIP THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS DOWNWIND WIND
OF THE LAKE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM BY
EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN INFLUX OF COLD AIR. BY FRIDAY EVENING
CRITICAL THICKNESSES WILL BE GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EAST OF
KCLE. HAVE NOT REALLY MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE LATER PORTION OF
THE PERIOD AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE ALREADY HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO TROUGHINESS IN
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME CYCLONIC FLOW
EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN OR SNOW IN THE MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST CHANGING OVER TO ALL
RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE FAIR WEATHER AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WILL THEN
SETTLE IN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN OVER THE
CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER
WILL ALSO CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. VERY CONCERNED ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING. AT THIS
TIME GUIDANCE IN NOT TAKING VISIBILITIES DOWN WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN HOWEVER FOG TECHNIQUE IN BUFKIT SUGGESTS ENOUGH CONTACT
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS FOR FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH GUIDANCE AND
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AT ERIE.
&&
.MARINE...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A POSSIBLE GALE EVENT STARTING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A PERIOD. GRADIENT
INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. I DONT THINK WE WILL SEE GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
APPROACHES AND WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
COLD LAKE SHOULD KEEP WINDS ABOVE THE DECK. THEN...AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECTING COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO MIX WINDS DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE AND THEREFORE SEE
WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE. COORDINATED WITH THE CANADIANS AND THEIR
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD DIMINISHING WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH GOES ALONG WITH SOME OF THE TRENDS WE ARE SEEING HERE.
ALTHOUGH...A SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON SATURDAY AND THEREFORE
COULD BUMP WINDS BACK UP AGAIN. BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON THIS AS
LOW IS PULLING OUT BY SATURDAY. SO WILL ISSUE THE GALE WATCH FROM
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 09Z FRIDAY. ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...NOTHING REAL EXCITING EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR LEZ061-142>149-162>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
619 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL MERGE WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK LOW OVER WV HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT NE. IT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE SE CORNER OF OHIO LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE
STARTED TO SEE THE PRECIP COVERAGE EXPAND AS BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW THAT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE COVERED WITH SHOWERS AT DAYBREAK.
SO...A WET START TO THE DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ALL AREAS. WILL STICK
WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MIDDAY AND THEN RAMP THINGS DOWN
FROM WEST TO EAST. EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING SOME DRYING AND
MAYBE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD
DRY OUT AT 850 MB BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST. HAVE GONE WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THIS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE
MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT READINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR NE OH AND NW PA.
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN OVERNIGHT ALOFT BUT AS STATED ABOVE THINK
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOWER TO DRY OUT. WILL KEEP A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IN OVERNIGHT AND THINK IT WILL BE AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY BEFORE SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS.
THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WILL HEAD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLANS AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE WEST. THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SLOW THE PRECIP DOWN AND EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO SEE RAIN. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SHOW A STACKED LOW. BECAUSE OF THIS
THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION AND IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY WILL START OUT WET ALL AREAS BUT BY LATE IN
THE DAY THE PRECIP THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS DOWNWIND WIND
OF THE LAKE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM BY
EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN INFLUX OF COLD AIR. BY FRIDAY EVENING
CRITICAL THICKNESSES WILL BE GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EAST OF
KCLE. HAVE NOT REALLY MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE LATER PORTION OF
THE PERIOD AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE ALREADY HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO TROUGHINESS IN
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME CYCLONIC FLOW
EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN OR SNOW IN THE MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST CHANGING OVER TO ALL
RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE FAIR WEATHER AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WILL THEN
SETTLE IN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN OVER THE
CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER
WILL ALSO CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE OVER THE EAST AS THE LOW PASSES BY.
OTHERWISE...TO THE WEST...WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST. EXPECTING IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE DAY IN THE WEST BACK TO VFR. IFR TO MVFR EXPECTED IN THE EAST
WHERE IT WILL TAKE TIME TO IMPROVE. AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF...SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AT ERIE.
&&
.MARINE...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A POSSIBLE GALE EVENT STARTING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A PERIOD. GRADIENT
INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. I DONT THINK WE WILL SEE GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
APPROACHES AND WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
COLD LAKE SHOULD KEEP WINDS ABOVE THE DECK. THEN...AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECTING COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO MIX WINDS DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE AND THEREFORE SEE
WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE. COORDINATED WITH THE CANADIANS AND THEIR
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD DIMINISHING WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH GOES ALONG WITH SOME OF THE TRENDS WE ARE SEEING HERE.
ALTHOUGH...A SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON SATURDAY AND THEREFORE
COULD BUMP WINDS BACK UP AGAIN. BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON THIS AS
LOW IS PULLING OUT BY SATURDAY. SO WILL ISSUE THE GALE WATCH FROM
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 09Z FRIDAY. ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...NOTHING REAL EXCITING EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR LEZ061-142>149-162>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
328 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL MERGE WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE WEAK LOW OVER WV HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT NE. IT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE SE CORNER OF OHIO LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE
STARTED TO SEE THE PRECIP COVERAGE EXPAND AS BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW THAT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE COVERED WITH SHOWERS AT DAYBREAK.
SO...A WET START TO THE DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ALL AREAS. WILL STICK
WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MIDDAY AND THEN RAMP THINGS DOWN
FROM WEST TO EAST. EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING SOME DRYING AND
MAYBE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD
DRY OUT AT 850 MB BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST. HAVE GONE WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THIS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE
MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT READINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR NE OH AND NW PA.
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN OVERNIGHT ALOFT BUT AS STATED ABOVE THINK
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOWER TO DRY OUT. WILL KEEP A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IN OVERNIGHT AND THINK IT WILL BE AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY BEFORE SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS.
THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS STRONG AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WILL HEAD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLANS AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE WEST. THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SLOW THE PRECIP DOWN AND EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO SEE RAIN. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SHOW A STACKED LOW. BECAUSE OF THIS
THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION AND IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY WILL START OUT WET ALL AREAS BUT BY LATE IN
THE DAY THE PRECIP THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS DOWNWIND WIND
OF THE LAKE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM BY
EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN INFLUX OF COLD AIR. BY FRIDAY EVENING
CRITICAL THICKNESSES WILL BE GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EAST OF
KCLE. HAVE NOT REALLY MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE LATER PORTION OF
THE PERIOD AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE ALREADY HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO TROUGHINESS IN
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME CYCLONIC FLOW
EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN OR SNOW IN THE MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST CHANGING OVER TO ALL
RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE FAIR WEATHER AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WILL THEN
SETTLE IN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN OVER THE
CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER
WILL ALSO CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE MOVING NORTH ACROSS OHIO AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN
OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL START TO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT THE
SOUTHERN SITES AFTER 06Z AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE IFR RANGE AS
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER MOVES TOWARDS NE OHIO.
DELAYED TIMING OF THE IFR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS BUT
STILL EXPECTING LOW IFR ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AFTER 12Z. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BETTER IN NW OHIO ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH ONLY BRIEF IFR EXPECTED. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BACK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO TUE NIGHT THEN AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AT ERI.
&&
.MARINE...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A POSSIBLE GALE EVENT STARTING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A PERIOD. GRADIENT
INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. I DONT THINK WE WILL SEE GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
APPROACHES AND WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
COLD LAKE SHOULD KEEP WINDS ABOVE THE DECK. THEN...AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECTING COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO MIX WINDS DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE AND THEREFORE SEE
WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE. COORDINATED WITH THE CANADIANS AND THEIR
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD DIMINISHING WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH GOES ALONG WITH SOME OF THE TRENDS WE ARE SEEING HERE.
ALTHOUGH...A SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON SATURDAY AND THEREFORE
COULD BUMP WINDS BACK UP AGAIN. BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON THIS AS
LOW IS PULLING OUT BY SATURDAY. SO WILL ISSUE THE GALE WATCH FROM
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 09Z FRIDAY. ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...NOTHING REAL EXCITING EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR LEZ061-142>149-162>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
302 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
IN SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF THE REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE NW EDGE OF GENERALLY SHALLOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAS PUSHED NWWD
ACROSS MUCH OF WARREN COUNTY THIS EVENING...WHILE A THICKER DUAL
TO MULTI-LAYER OF STRATUS AND CIRRO/ALTO-STRATUS BLANKETED MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND ERN PENN.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWING THAT THE NRN EDGE OF STEADIER
LIGHT TO MDT RAIN FALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE WAS
HAVING A TOUGH TIME PUSHING NORTH IN THE MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
/WITH A SHARP 700 MB THETA-E GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RT 322/22
CORRIDOR AND THE PENN TURNPIKE IN FAR SRN PA/.
LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN /INCLUDING THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ WILL
SEE JUST SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO THAT.
GREATLY TRIMMED BACK POPS AND QPF UNTIL 10Z TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD...LIGHT TO MDT RAIN SHOULD ADVANCE STEADILY NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION AS A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER
UVVEL.
RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE AREA NEAR AND TO THE SE OF INTERSTATE
81 /AND POINTS WEST ALONG INTERSTATE 70/ SEES UP TO ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH.
TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE L-M 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS OVERNIGHT...AND IN THE U 40S TO L50S ELSEWHERE. THESE READING
COULD EVEN RISE A FEW DEG F IN SOME LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOWEST PRESSURE STARTS TO CONGREGATE ON THE OHIO RIVER BUT
FILLS IN AS A SECONDARY LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE DELMARVA AND
MOVES QUICKLY UP TO LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD. THIS ACTION MIGHT
PULL THE HIGHEST MOISTURE TO THE EAST...BUT PWATS REMAIN EXTREMELY
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE CWA...ESP IN THE WEST...WHERE 1.3 INCH PWATS
WILL RESIDE TUES AM. IN THE GFS-EC SCENARIO...MUCH MORE RAIN FALLS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THAN THE EAST. WILL HANG OUR HAT
ON THAT BUT HEDGE SOME IN THE EAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE HIGH MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY CLOG UP
THE LOWER ATMOS WITH LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WON/T RISE MUCH.
NAM/GFS/EC ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SLUG OF RAIN WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA TUES NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD BE WELL OFF TO THE EAST BY
WED AM. BUT TYPICAL WRAP AROUND FLOW AND HIGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL MEAN SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP/DZ ON WED MORNING IN THE N/W.
QPF FROM THAT MAIN AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL RUN
BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.25 INCHES. ONLY MINOR /10F/ DIURNAL SWING ARE
EXPECTED TUES NIGHT AND WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM KANSAS TO MICHIGAN
WED INTO THU...BRINGING A BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY ON THU. OVER PA...RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ON WED AND CEDES
TO EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WED NIGHT. 850MB FLOW WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON WED NIGHT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN PA. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE WED NIGHT WILL BE TO OUR WEST WITH WARM
FRONT LIFTING THROUGH...BUT WITH INCREASED WAA KICKING IN COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS SLIP INTO WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE EVENING.
MODELS STILL LOOK TO BRING COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH PA ON
THURSDAY. WITH THE FRONT...EXPECT A PERIOD SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING INTO SAT /ESP ALONG AND NEAR THE
RIDGES/ AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY BEHIND
A SECOND QUITE POTENT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY DROPPING OUT OF W CANADA
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY ROLLS THROUGH.
FLOW TURNS FROM W TO WNW FOR FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE NW MTNS ALONG WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION /ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH NOTABLE MODEL DIFFS BY DAY
7/.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
LOWERING CIGS AND RAIN NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. IFR
AND LOWER CIGS ALREADY NOTED AT KJST AND AT BFD. MVFR DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE AND LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL PA TOWARDS DAYLIGHT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KIPT. IPT CURRENTLY HAS A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 15
AND AS SUCH THE DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE AND ANY CLOUD LOWER
AND/OR FOG/MIST AT BAY. IN ADDITION TO DETERIORATING VSBYS/CIGS...EXPECT
MARGINAL LLWS TO BE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL PA...AS A CORE OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE OVER THE AREA.
RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY...AS THE LOW PRES CENTER PASSES ACROSS THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE THREAT OF LLWS WILL DIMINISH
BY TUE AFTN...AS WEAKENING LOW LVL JET LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF PA TUE EVENING AS THE LOW WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATL
COAST. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY
MTNS IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN IFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST INTO TUE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST.
THU...MVFR LIKELY WITH FROPA/SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS.
FRI...GUSTY WINDS POSS.
SAT...GUSTY WINDS POSS. AM SHSN/REDUCED CIGS POSS AT KBFD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1128 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
IN SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF THE REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE NW EDGE OF GENERALLY SHALLOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAS PUSHED NWWD
ACROSS MUCH OF WARREN COUNTY THIS EVENING...WHILE A THICKER DUAL
TO MULTI-LAYER OF STRATUS AND CIRRO/ALTO-STRATUS BLANKETED MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND ERN PENN.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWING THAT THE NRN EDGE OF STEADIER
LIGHT TO MDT RAIN FALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE WAS
HAVING A TOUGH TIME PUSHING NORTH IN THE MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
/WITH A SHARP 700 MB THETA-E GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RT 322/22
CORRIDOR AND THE PENN TURNPIKE IN FAR SRN PA/.
LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN /INCLUDING THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ WILL
SEE JUST SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO THAT.
GREATLY TRIMMED BACK POPS AND QPF UNTIL 10Z TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD...LIGHT TO MDT RAIN SHOULD ADVANCE STEADILY NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION AS A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER
UVVEL.
RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE AREA NEAR AND TO THE SE OF INTERSTATE
81 /AND POINTS WEST ALONG INTERSTATE 70/ SEES UP TO ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH.
TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE L-M 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS OVERNIGHT...AND IN THE U 40S TO L50S ELSEWHERE. THESE READING
COULD EVEN RISE A FEW DEG F IN SOME LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOWEST PRESSURE STARTS TO CONGREGATE ON THE OHIO RIVER BUT
FILLS IN AS A SECONDARY LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE DELMARVA AND
MOVES QUICKLY UP TO LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD. THIS ACTION MIGHT
PULL THE HIGHEST MOISTURE TO THE EAST...BUT PWATS REMAIN EXTREMELY
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE CWA...ESP IN THE WEST...WHERE 1.3 INCH PWATS
WILL RESIDE TUES AM. IN THE GFS-EC SCENARIO...MUCH MORE RAIN FALLS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THAN THE EAST. WILL HANG OUR HAT
ON THAT BUT HEDGE SOME IN THE EAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE HIGH MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY CLOG UP
THE LOWER ATMOS WITH LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WON/T RISE MUCH.
NAM/GFS/EC ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SLUG OF RAIN WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA TUES NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD BE WELL OFF TO THE EAST BY
WED AM. BUT TYPICAL WRAP AROUND FLOW AND HIGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL MEAN SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP/DZ ON WED MORNING IN THE N/W.
QPF FROM THAT MAIN AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL RUN
BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.25 INCHES. ONLY MINOR /10F/ DIURNAL SWING ARE
EXPECTED TUES NIGHT AND WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM KANSAS TO MICHIGAN
WED INTO THU...BRINGING A BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY ON THU. OVER PA...RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ON WED AND CEDES
TO EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WED NIGHT. 850MB FLOW WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON WED NIGHT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN PA. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE WED NIGHT WILL BE TO OUR WEST WITH WARM
FRONT LIFTING THROUGH...BUT WITH INCREASED WAA KICKING IN COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS SLIP INTO WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE EVENING.
MODELS STILL LOOK TO BRING COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH PA ON
THURSDAY. WITH THE FRONT...EXPECT A PERIOD SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING INTO SAT /ESP ALONG AND NEAR THE
RIDGES/ AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY BEHIND
A SECOND QUITE POTENT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY DROPPING OUT OF W CANADA
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY ROLLS THROUGH.
FLOW TURNS FROM W TO WNW FOR FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE NW MTNS ALONG WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION /ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH NOTABLE MODEL DIFFS BY DAY
7/.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD LOWERING CIGS
AND RAIN NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. IFR CIGS ALREADY
NOTED AT KJST AT 04Z AND LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS IFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KIPT. IN ADDITION TO DETERIORATING
VSBYS/CIGS...EXPECT MARGINAL LLWS TO BE MET TUE AM OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL PA...AS A CORE OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE OVER THE AREA.
RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY...AS THE LOW PRES CENTER PASSES ACROSS THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE THREAT OF LLWS WILL DIMINISH
BY TUE AFTN...AS WEAKENING LOW LVL JET LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS RISE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
PA TUE EVENING...AS THE LOW PASSES OFF THE MID ATL COAST.
HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS
IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN IFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST INTO TUE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST.
THU...MVFR LIKELY WITH FROPA/SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS.
FRI...GUSTY WINDS POSS.
SAT...GUSTY WINDS POSS. AM SHSN/REDUCED CIGS POSS AT KBFD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
925 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REALLY IT IS A SAD LOOKING LINE OF STORMS STRETCHING FROM
LIVINGSTON SW BACK TO BELLVILLE. CAPPING HAS BEEN TOO STRONG AS
BOTH 00Z CRP/LCH SOUNDINGS SHOW. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER AS
WELL. AS A RESULT WE GET A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG THE DRYLINE. 03Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ACTUAL COLD FRONT ACROSS
N TX FROM NEAR ABILENE TO DFW WITH DRYLINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF IT. ACTUAL COLD FRONT SHOULD CATCH UP WITH THE DRYLINE
LATER TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SE TX. LATEST HRRR RUNS SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND LINE OF SHOWERS.
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
IT LOOKS LIKE ANY IMPACTS FROM THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
LIMITED TO SOME 30 MPH WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AS THE MOVE
THROUGH HOUSTON LATER TONIGHT CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.
AVIATION...
LOOKING FOR A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION TO MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACRS
THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
TIMING FROM 02Z-03Z FOR CLL TO 06Z-08Z FOR GLS AND LBX. OUT AHEAD
OF THAT JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS UNDER THE CAP. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE LINE GOES THROUGH.
FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER FOR CXO...UTS...AND CLL...WHERE CAP
NOT AS STRONG BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH THE LINE PASSAGE FOR
OTHER TAF SITES AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THUNDER IS
NEEDED. HAVE TREATED AS MODERATE SHOWERS FOR THE TAF SITES WITHOUT
THUNDER...AND MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THOSE NORTHERN SITES.
BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY. 46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 1 PM...A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A WELL DEFINED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE LOW INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT TRAILS WELL BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THAT SAID...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
THE CATALYST FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS SE TX. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH COUPLED WITH A
RIGHT REAR QUAD AND PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.70 AND 2.00 INCHES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A SWATH OF SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP BY 00Z AND CROSS THE CWA
BY 06Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AT A STEADY CLIP SO EXCESSIVE RAIN
IS NOT EXPECTED. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE AND STILL
NOT CONVINCED THE CAP WILL COMPLETELY ERODE BUT SOME SIGN THAT
THE CAP HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN IN THE ARKLATEX AND THIS WEAKENING
TREND DOES EXTEND SW INTO SE TX. FEEL THAT EVENTUALLY THE
DYNAMICAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE JET AND THE STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE
WILL OVERCOME THE WEAKENING CAP AND SHRA/TSRA WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AROUND 00Z. RAISED POPS TO 70 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA WITH LOWER POPS TO THE W-SW. SPC STILL HAS MUCH OF
THE AREA OUTLOOKED IN MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK. THE RISK IS SMALL
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANIED THE
STRONGER STORMS IN HOUSTON/TRINITY COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
THE COOLER AIR WILL LAG A BIT UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONT ARRIVES LATE
TONIGHT...SO LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THU-FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND LOW LEVEL MSTR BEGINS TO RETURN. THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES SW AND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN BACK TO THE REGION ON SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE
TEXAS TECH WRF IS BRINGING A SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
ON FRIDAY BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH MSTR WITH A DRY
NE SFC FLOW IN PLACE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ANOTHER
EPISODE OF RAIN. A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND KICK EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ON TUESDAY AS IT CROSSES NORTH TEXAS.
DEEP MSTR COUPLED WITH A SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE AND SHARP SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. THE DYNAMICS ON MON NITE/EARLY TUES LOOK RATHER
IMPRESSIVE AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THE
BOUNDARY LATE MON NITE. 43
MARINE...
EVENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER SLIGHTLY WEST AS A
CENTRAL TEXAS COLD FRONT ENTERS EASTERN TEXAS. THE FRONT IS TIMED TO
MAKE IT OFF THE COAST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM THURSDAY...
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS TO ADVISORY
LEVELS. THE EARLY THURSDAY FORECAST IS FOR SUSTAINED 20-25 KNOT
WINDS...GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS...TO IMPACT THE LOCAL BAYS AND GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS BACKING HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
OVER THE REGION AND THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY
EARLY THIS WEEKEND...A LONG DURATION MODERATE NORTHEAST FETCH WILL
SET UP OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED TIDES AND HIGHER GULF WAVE HEIGHTS...AN AVERAGE 4 FEET
(NEARSHORE)TO 7 FEET (OFFSHORE) INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 53 71 51 64 48 / 40 0 0 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 59 72 53 67 50 / 60 0 0 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 66 70 61 68 58 / 50 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1048 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
.AVIATION...
DRT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND MVFR THE PAST FEW HOURS. ANTICIPATE A
FEW MORE UPS AND DOWNS ACROSS THE 3KFT MARK UNTIL LATER TONIGHT
WHEN STEADY MVFR SHOULD TAKE HOLD. OTHER SITES OF AUS/SSF/SAT ARE
AROUND 4KFT. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND ALLOW FOR DECKS TO SLOWLY FALL ESPECIALLY TOWARD MORNING
WHEN COMPUTER GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES BY DAWN...LASTING THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. WONT SEE
MUCH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MORNING...AND MAYBE GETTING TO MVFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY...TUE NIGHT
WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD IFR AND FOGGY CONDITIONS. HAVE
ALREADY PUT THIS TREND INTO THE 30 HR TAFS OF SAT/AUS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015/
UPDATE...
SATELLITE LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWS A MORE AGGRESSIVE RETURN OF
MOISTURE AND LOW. THE INCREASES IN DEW POINTS COULD SUGGEST SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT WOULD PREFER TO SEE SOME
LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR BEFORE MAKING THIS CHANGE. MIN TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES TO KEEP WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND THE RAP MODEL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SAT/SSF/AUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
CLOUD DECK AROUND 4KFT MOVES OVERHEAD. DECKS OUT AT DRT ARE AT
CURRENTLY MVFR. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT OVERRUNNING TONIGHT
ALONG THE 300 AND 295K SURFACES. THIS TREND IS KEEPING MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR INTO THE SITES BY MORNING. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS NOT TREMENDOUS THAT WE WILL GET IFR...DONT HAVE ENOUGH TO
TOTALLY PULL IT FROM THE TAFS. DOES APPEAR THAT THE MFVR WILL
OCCUR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BASED ON THE SE WIND. DOESNT LOOK LIKE
THERE WILL BE MUCH SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT
MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT MVFR
THROUGH TUE WITH EVEN A BETTER CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IS RESULTING IN CLOUDY
SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THAT AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE DAY TIME HOURS COMES TO AN END...DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS UP TO 850MB
(ISENTROPIC LIFT)WILL HELP FOR LIGHT RAINSHOWERS TO FORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
ALSO...WITH MOIST AIR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 90...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AROUND DAY BREAK THROUGH
MID MORNING ON TUESDAY. THEN...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH TUEDSAY`S
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY. SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO FEW
HUNDREDTHS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST WHILE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED TIME
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INTERSTATE 35 IS AROUND
NOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH QUICKLY FROM OUR AREA AND TO THE
EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
AREAS...BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE IN THE EVENING.
COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TO LOWER 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY
QUIET WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
FOR CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN OVER THAT
REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 60 75 68 80 50 / - 10 20 30 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 61 75 68 80 49 / - 10 20 30 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 78 68 82 50 / - 10 20 30 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 58 72 65 77 46 / - 10 20 30 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 77 65 78 48 / - 10 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 74 67 78 47 / - 10 20 30 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 63 76 67 82 48 / 10 20 20 20 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 76 67 81 49 / - 10 20 30 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 57 77 69 81 51 / - - 10 40 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 63 77 69 82 51 / - 10 20 30 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 78 69 83 52 / 10 10 20 20 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
504 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
10Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
LOW/DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM JET REGION CAN BE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY TO THE SOUTH
OF THIS DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU TO THE TN
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WE FIND A WEST-EAST ELONGATED AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
12/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN THROUGH ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE TROP.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE EXCEEDED 40C AT
TIMES. THE SKIES AS A RESULT ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING ABOVE AREAS OF VERY LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...HELPING TO KEEP OUR WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST WE FIND A
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE STRONG SYSTEM MENTIONED
EARLIER CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT CROSSES THE TN VALLEY
AND DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTH
AND EAST WITH TIME. THIS FRONT FINALLY REACHES OUR NORTHERN ZONES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH DOWN THE LENGTH
OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE FOG HAS BECOME QUITE DENSE IN SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST. THE
EXTENT OF THE FOG BASED ON OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE DATA/AND
TRAFFIC CAMS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THESE AREAS IN EXPECTATION OF SOME DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...
EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...LEAVING
THE REGION WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE SCT CLOUDS WILL ACTUALLY TEND TO DISSIPATE TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL MIXING REACHES UP
ABOVE THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES DOWN TOWARD LEE/CHARLOTTE
COUNTIES WILL LEAVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND EVEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATER DAY/EVENING
SHOWER. NOTHING HEAVY...AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF...HOWEVER
DOES APPEAR THERE WILL EXIST JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
PERHAPS SUPPORT A 20% ACROSS THESE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH MANY SPOTS REACHING
THE MIDDLE 80S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS THROUGH. TEMPS MAY SLIDE
BACK JUST A BIT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING AND WEAK
GRADIENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPING OF A FEEBLE
SEA-BREEZE AND LIGHT ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN INTO THE NATURE COAST BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND THEN MAKES SLOW PROGRESS DOWN TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AROUND DAWN...AND FINALLY SOUTH OF FORT MYERS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. ANY REAL INFLUENCE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FROM
THIS FRONT REALLY WILL NOT BE FELT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...SO ITS
PASSAGE WILL ONLY BE MARKED BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT. IN FACT...THE
EXCELLENT POST FRONTAL MIXING ALONG WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN FRIDAY AGAIN ENDING UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY
SPOTS IN TERM OF TEMPERATURE. WOULD EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S FOR LEVY
COUNTY...RISING TO THE LOWER 80S AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND
MIDDLE 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL ENCOUNTER A SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE DOWN TOWARD FORT
MYERS...AND AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
ONCE AGAIN KEPT RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20%. THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AND AFTER EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE
DRY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MORE ON THE WEEKEND IN THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AT
THE VERY START OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEAR ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY...WITH A DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MASS FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTHEAST
WINDS...GIVING US A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES WITH LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT...RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE NEAR ZERO AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA UNDER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE HIGH STILL HOLDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO GO CALM AND REALLY ALLOW
US TO COOL DOWN ANY FURTHER. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER TO
THE EAST COAST FOR SUNDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND
OUR TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING. IT WILL STILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT AFTERNOON...BUT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A POTENT UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TRAILING A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SETUP
WOULD CONTINUE OUR MODERATING TREND AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO A
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. IT LOOKS LIKE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THAT COULD
CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES AS FAR AS FORECAST DETAILS SO WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW FOR WEDNESDAY WITH FORECAST DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT IN THE FUTURE.
&&
.AVIATION... AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR...AND SOME POTENTIAL STILL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO REACH
KTPA/KPIE AROUND DAWN. OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN OUT AROUND KLAL...BUT
LIKELY THEY ARE EXPERIENCING IFR OR LOWER BASED ON SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS. FURTHER SOUTH...AREAS OF LOWER
CLOUDS ARE MORE SCT IN NATURE...BUT MAY REDUCE CIGS TO IFR/MVFR AT
KPGD THROUGH 14Z. THE LOWER CLOUDS/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE...AND LEAD TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AFTER 14-15Z.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT ARRIVES OVER APALACHEE BAY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS DURING FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND INCREASE. PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY TO
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION TODAY...AND IS FOLLOWED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TO OUR NORTH IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 35 PERCENT TO
THE NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER NO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. DISPERSION INDICES
WILL BE QUITE LOW TODAY...BUT THEN INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL...AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF SUNRISE. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. FOG IS THEN NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 85 68 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 87 71 86 68 / 20 20 20 10
GIF 86 66 84 60 / 0 10 0 0
SRQ 83 70 82 64 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 86 60 82 54 / 0 10 0 0
SPG 85 69 82 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INLAND
CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
459 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
10Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
LOW/DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM JET REGION CAN BE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY TO THE SOUTH
OF THIS DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU TO THE TN
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WE FIND A WEST-EAST ELONGATED AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
12/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN THROUGH ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE TROP.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE EXCEEDED 40C AT
TIMES. THE SKIES AS A RESULT ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING ABOVE AREAS OF VERY LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...HELPING TO KEEP OUR WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST WE FIND A
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE STRONG SYSTEM MENTIONED
EARLIER CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT CROSSES THE TN VALLEY
AND DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTH
AND EAST WITH TIME. THIS FRONT FINALLY REACHES OUR NORTHERN ZONES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH DOWN THE LENGTH
OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE FOG HAS BECOME QUITE DENSE IN SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST. THE
EXTENT OF THE FOG BASED ON OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE DATA/AND
TRAFFIC CAMS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THESE AREAS IN EXPECTATION OF SOME DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...
EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...LEAVING
THE REGION WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE SCT CLOUDS WILL ACTUALLY TEND TO DISSIPATE TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL MIXING REACHES UP
ABOVE THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES DOWN TOWARD LEE/CHARLOTTE
COUNTIES WILL LEAVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND EVEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATER DAY/EVENING
SHOWER. NOTHING HEAVY...AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF...HOWEVER
DOES APPEAR THERE WILL EXIST JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
PERHAPS SUPPORT A 20% ACROSS THESE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH MANY SPOTS REACHING
THE MIDDLE 80S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS THROUGH. TEMPS MAY SLIDE
BACK JUST A BIT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING AND WEAK
GRADIENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPING OF A FEEBLE
SEA-BREEZE AND LIGHT ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN INTO THE NATURE COAST BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND THEN MAKES SLOW PROGRESS DOWN TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AROUND DAWN...AND FINALLY SOUTH OF FORT MYERS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. ANY REAL INFLUENCE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FROM
THIS FRONT REALLY WILL NOT BE FELT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...SO ITS
PASSAGE WILL ONLY BE MARKED BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT. IN FACT...THE
EXCELLENT POST FRONTAL MIXING ALONG WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN FRIDAY AGAIN ENDING UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY
SPOTS IN TERM OF TEMPERATURE. WOULD EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S FOR LEVY
COUNTY...RISING TO THE LOWER 80S AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND
MIDDLE 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL ENCOUNTER A SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE DOWN TOWARD FORT
MYERS...AND AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
ONCE AGAIN KEPT RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20%. THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AND AFTER EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE
DRY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MORE ON THE WEEKEND IN THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AT
THE VERY START OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEAR ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY...WITH A DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MASS FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTHEAST
WINDS...GIVING US A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES WITH LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT...RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE NEAR ZERO AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA UNDER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE HIGH STILL HOLDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO GO CALM AND REALLY ALLOW
US TO COOL DOWN ANY FURTHER. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER TO
THE EAST COAST FOR SUNDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND
OUR TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING. IT WILL STILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT AFTERNOON...BUT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A POTENT UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TRAILING A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SETUP
WOULD CONTINUE OUR MODERATING TREND AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO A
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. IT LOOKS LIKE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THAT COULD
CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES AS FAR AS FORECAST DETAILS SO WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW FOR WEDNESDAY WITH FORECAST DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT IN THE FUTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT ARRIVES OVER APALACHEE BAY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS DURING FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND INCREASE. PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY TO
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION TODAY...AND IS FOLLOWED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TO OUR NORTH IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 35 PERCENT TO
THE NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER NO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. DISPERSION INDICES
WILL BE QUITE LOW TODAY...BUT THEN INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL...AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF SUNRISE. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. FOG IS THEN NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 85 68 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 87 71 86 68 / 20 20 20 10
GIF 86 66 84 60 / 0 10 0 0
SRQ 83 70 82 64 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 86 60 82 54 / 0 10 0 0
SPG 85 69 82 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INLAND
CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
430 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...
...COOLER/DRIER WEATHER ON TAP FRI-SUN BEFORE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
REBOUND NEXT WEEK...
TODAY-TONIGHT...DEEP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NE GOMEX ACRS THE
NRN BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL FL. EVNG
RAOBS DEPICT THE RIDGE WELL WITH A DEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE
H85-H50 LYR AT KTBW/KXMR/KJAX...PWAT VALUES AOB 0.75". THE RIDGE HAS
NUDGED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO S FL...POSITION MARKED BY A THIN
BAND OF MID LVL MOISTURE S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH H85-H70 DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS BTWN 5-7C. RADAR SHOWING A THIN BAND OF SHRAS TRYING TO
WORK ITS WAY N FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...BUT
WERE GETTING SMOTHERED BY THE SUPPRESSED AIRMASS ASSOCD WITH THE
RIDGE.
CLEAR SKIES AND LGT/VRBL WINDS HAVE ALLOWED AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO
DVLP NEAR/NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WHILE THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE...IT WILL POSE A HAZARD TO THE EARLY COMMUTE.
A WELL DVLPD STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPR MIDWEST WILL LIFT NE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 120KT-140KT H30-H20 JET STREAK
LIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THIS MOTION WILL KEEP THE
GOMEX/BAHAMA RIDGE IN PLACE OVERHEAD...ERODING ITS NRN FLANK. THE
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THE DEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS WELL AS A
RESPECTABLE MID LVL THERMAL RIDGE ACRS CENTRAL FL...H70 TEMPS ARND
10C AND H50 TEMPS ARND -4C ARE YIELDING LAPSE RATES AOB 5C/KM THRU
THE LYR. MID LVL VORT AND UPR LVL DIVERGENCE FIELDS WILL BE EITHER
NEUTRAL OR TOO WEAK TO GENERATE THE INSTABILITY TO BREAK THE
INVERSION. PWAT VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.8" OVER S FL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE KMFL RAOB ALSO SHOWS A NOTEWORTHY SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN THE H85-H70 LYR WHILE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS H85-H70
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARND INCREASING FROM 5-7C S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
TO 10C ALONG THE MARTIN/ST. LUCIE COUNTY LINE.
TOO MUCH SUPPRESSION/DRY AIR AND TOO LITTLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO ALLOW
ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP TO WORK ITS WAY N OF THE MARTIN/PALM BEACH
COUNTY LINE. ANY SHRAS THAT MIGHT SURVIVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT...WILL KEEP THE FCST PRECIP FREE. DRIER
AIR...LIGHT WINDS...AND NEAR FULL SUN WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE L80S ALONG THE COAST...M80S INTERIOR...5-8F ABV AVG. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REFLECT CURRENT SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCD WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS...L/M60S INTERIOR AND SPACE COAST NWD...M/U60S TREASURE
COAST.
FRI-SUN...REINFORCING (DRY) COOL FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT SAGS
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA. BDRY GETS BRIDGED BY INCREASING N TO NNE
WINDS FROM A STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTH CTRL-SERN
CONUS BUILDS E-ESE INTO FL AND THE ADJCT ATLC. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED AWAY FROM THE SLGT SHOWER CHCS THAT IT HAD BEEN ADVERTISING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND INSTEAD WAITS UNTIL THE WORK WEEK TO
START BRING IT BACK INTO THE FCST FROM S-N. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER
DISCUSSION...POST-FRONTAL COOL ADVECTION WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR. VEERING OF WINDS TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
OCCURS AS QUICKLY AS 6-12HR BEHIND FROPA...WHICH BOTH MODIFIES WHAT
CAA OCCURS OVER THE COASTAL/SRN AREAS...AND AIDS AIR MASS "RECOVERY"
AREAWIDE STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.
L-M80S FRI WITH LARGE SPREAD IN MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT...RANGING FROM
L50S NEAR LAKE GEORGE/OCALA FOREST TO U60S OVER MARTIN CO. U70S
NORTH-CTRL TO 80/L80S FOR WEEKEND MAXES. MINS RANGE FROM U50S NW TO
U60S/L70S SE ON SAT NIGHT AND L60S NW TO L70S FOR THE SPACE/TREASURE
COASTS SUN NIGHT.
MON-THU...GLOBAL MODELS START OFF IN GREAT AGREEMENT FOR THE WORK
WEEK...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS HAS SHOWN A LATE SEASON
T-WAVE/TC FEATURE COMING INTO THE BAHAMAS AND TWD SE FLORIDA FOR MID
TO LATE WEEK. THE CURRENT FCST FOLLOWS THE ECM SOLUTION OF E TO SE
FLOW WITH SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/RAIN CHCS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO RISE
BACK ABOVE FROM TUE ONWARD. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MINS SEVERAL DEGS
WARMER THAN NORMAL...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 13/12Z...
SFC WNDS:
INTERIOR SITES: THRU 12/15Z...LGT VRBL AOB 3KTS. BTWN 12/15Z-12/18Z
BCMG W/NW 4-7KTS. BTWN 12/19Z-12/22Z...BCMG E/NE 4-6KTS XCPT KLEE.
BTWN 12/22Z-12/24Z...BCMG E/NE 4-6KTS. BTWN 13/02Z-13/04Z...BCMG
LGT/VRBL.
COASTAL SITES: THRU 12/15Z...VRBL AOB 3KTS. BTWN 12/15Z-12/18Z...
BCMG E/NE 6-9KTS. BTWN 13/00Z-13/03Z...BCMG LGT/VRBL.
VSBYS/WX/CIGS:
N OF KTIX-KISM THRU 12/15Z...AREAS MVFR BR/LCL LIFR FG WITH LCL CIGS
BLO OVC005. S OF KTIX-KISM THRU 12/15Z...AREAS CIGS BTWN BKN040-060.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS BLANKETING THE FL PENINSULA WILL
GENERATE LGT/VRBL WINDS ACRS THE LCL ATLC...GENERALLY E/NE BLO 8KTS
S OF CAPE CANAVERAL...W/SW BLO 8KTS N OF THE CAPE THOUGH THE WEAK
PGRAD WILL ALLOW WINDS NEAR THE COAST TO VEER TO S/SE BY MID AFTN.
SEAS 2-3FT...DOMINANT PDS 8-9SECS.
FRI-MON...N-NNE POST-FRONTAL WIND SURGE PUSHES SEAS TO 5-6FT OVER
THE GULF STREAM LATE FRI NIGHT-EARLY SAT. ONSHORE FETCH LENGTHENS AS
A FRESHENING NE BREEZE VEERS TO EASTERLY. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6FT NEAR
SHORE AND 7-8FT OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN ONSET OF
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS...WITH SCA LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO START OFF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 82 62 79 55 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 86 63 84 59 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 84 67 83 64 / 0 10 10 10
VRB 84 67 82 65 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 85 61 81 54 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 85 62 82 56 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 86 63 83 60 / 0 0 0 10
FPR 84 69 84 66 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LAKE...INLAND VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...
ORANGE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
407 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS
LATE MONDAY IN THE FORM OF A COASTAL THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG FRONT AROUND MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...NOT AS MUCH STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING AT 4 AM. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF GEORGIA AND JUST WEST OF THE U.S.
17 CORRIDOR IN SE SOUTH CAROLINA. MOST OF THE FOG IS GOING TO REMAIN
SHALLOW BUT LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. WE HAVE MAINTAINED MENTIONS OF
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 50 IN SOME SPOTS
WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
TODAY A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
IN THE DAY BUT WILL ENCOUNTER A DRY DEEP LAYERED AIR MASS ENTRENCHED
IN WARM AND SINKING AIR AT THE MID LEVELS. ANOTHER DRYING FEATURE IS
THE DEEP WEST FLOW SEEN ON REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES. A
FEW CUMULUS/ALTOCU MAY PUSH INTO INLAND ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
TEND TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. OTHERWISE...A FEW BANDS
OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME THIN CIRRUS OVER THE AREA.
THE LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MIXING AROUND THE COUPLE OF WARMEST HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD TAP INTO SOME 25-30 KT FLOW CLOSER TO 3 KFT AND
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE IN A FEW AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF I- 16. WE MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO THE WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON PER THICKNESS/PERSISTENCE SCHEMES AND
MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WILL WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. THE EVENING HOURS
WILL BE MILD IN THE 60S INITIALLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S COAST FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WILL BUILD TOWARDS OUR REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS ROUNDING THE
HIGH WILL CAUSE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN ON
THURSDAY...IN THE LOWER 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL MOVE CLOSER
TO THE REGION, BUT IT`S STILL NOT SITUATED WELL ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND A
DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS MOST AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND.
SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE TN VALLEY, BRINGING
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT A VERY COOL DAY, EVEN WITH FULL
SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR. LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE COAST WILL BE WARMER...THE LOWER
TO MAYBE MID 40S. ADDED PATCHY FROST TO PORTIONS OF COLLETON,
HAMPTON, ALLENDALE, SCREVEN, AND JENKINS COUNTIES. WITH THE MODELS
TRENDING COLDER, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE FROST COVERAGE NEEDS
TO BE EXPANDED AND FROST ADVISORIES NEED TO BE ISSUED.
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MODERATING SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER CAROLINAS, SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH HOVERS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND A WEDGE PATTERN BRIEFLY DEVELOPS. MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY...BRINGING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE COAST. TUESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST, OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER, THE COASTAL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND
MAYBE A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND GETS INTERESTING
AS MODELS SHOW A STRONG TROUGH AND DEVELOPING STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THE ECMWF PUSHES THIS STORM TO THE NORTH AND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER WITH
THE FROPA, BY NEARLY 36 HOURS. GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR
OUT AND KNOWING THERE WILL BE A FRONT EITHER OVER US OR CLOSE TO US,
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS, WHICH KEEPS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. WE HAVE A COUPLE HOURS OF 6SM BR IN
GROUND FOG AND SCT001 TO TREND TOWARD SUNRISE EXPECTATIONS.
EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH KSAV
AND KCHS AS DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 KT
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR WILL
PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
THE MIXING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WATERS LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE TODAY
AS THE LAND MASS WARMS. WE SUSPECT NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL AVERAGE
10 TO 15 KT WITH CLOSER TO 15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT LATER
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
THERE WILL BE SOME SURGING TONIGHT...MOST NOTICEABLY BEYOND 20 NM
OFF THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS COOL. THROUGH TONIGHT...SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST
SEAWARD FROM THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH PILOT BUOYS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND EASE FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AND
AROUND 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. WINDS WILL START INCREASING
FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
REGION, STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO A MODERATE OR FRESH BREEZE, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 10 NM FOR ALL OF
THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AND 4-5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTS FOR A BRIEF TIME, MOST
LIKELY FOR MARINE ZONES 350 AND 374. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SATURDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
SEAS UNDER 5 FT. MODELS INDICATE WINDS AND SEAS DETERIORATING LATE
MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND A CENTRAL U.S. STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...
MARINE...MS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
404 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PASSING
OVERHEAD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
HAVE NOT HAD MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD WHICH WILL DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO
LIMITED FOR PRECIPITATION FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE. W TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED.
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY COOLING
DOWN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER COOL AND DRY
ADVECTION. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCES MARGINAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRY...BUT LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE 30S...BUT WITH THE WINDS REMAINING UP SOMEWHAT...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION LATE IN THE NIGHT AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY NOT EXPECTED TO RISE OUT OF THE 50S. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
IS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THIS NIGHT SHOULD
PRODUCE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S. BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST AREAWIDE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES POSSIBLY SEEING A
FREEZE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINNING SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE APPROACHING THE REGION UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF LIFTS
THIS LOW RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS A DEEP LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...SLOWLY LIFTING IT
NORTH. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECASTS
DUE TO THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS. GENERALLY CONTINUED
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO CHANCE BY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME LOW CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING. SREF
SEEMS TO BE THE MOST OPTIMISTIC SHOWING MVFR OR VFR
CONDITIONS...AND THE HRRR GOING TOWARDS IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR
CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT WILL ADVERTISE MVFR
VSBYS AT AGS/OGB BEFORE DAWN. SOME SCTD CLOUDS AOB 1 KFT ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH NAM BUFKIT SHOWING A NOCTURNAL LLJ AROUND 30
KTS AT 1 KFT...NOT ANTICIPATING LOW CIGS BUT AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND
14Z. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE
FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA
EASTMAN...WATEREE RIVER AT WATEREE DAM...AND THE PEE DEE RIVER AT
CHERAW. A FLOOD WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG LATER IN THE WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
121 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PASSING
OVERHEAD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
HAVE NOT HAD MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD WHICH WILL DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO
LIMITED FOR PRECIPITATION FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE. W TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED.
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS WILL TRACK NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE...WITH A
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. COOL
AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PROG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER STILL WELL TO OUR WEST
EARLY SATURDAY. DUE TO EXPECTATION OF SOME WIND...QUESTION
INVOLVING FROST POTENTIAL LATE FRI NT/EARLY SAT...BUT DID MENTION
PATCHY FROST NORTH EARLY SAT MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION BY SAT NT AND SUN...WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...THOUGH STILL
SOME POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE AND
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGEST FROST...AND FREEZING TEMPS...POSSIBLE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT
LATEST RUNS OF BOTH ARE SLOWING DOWN THE APPROACH AS THEY ARE NOW
CUTTING OFF THE UPPER LOW AND WELL TO OUR WEST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT PLUME OF BEST MOISTURE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
WED...OR MAYBE EVEN THU. ACCEPTED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WHICH PROVIDES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE MON NT INTO
TUE...INCREASING TO CHANCE BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME LOW CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING. SREF
SEEMS TO BE THE MOST OPTIMISTIC SHOWING MVFR OR VFR
CONDITIONS...AND THE HRRR GOING TOWARDS IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR
CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT WILL ADVERTISE MVFR
VSBYS AT AGS/OGB BEFORE DAWN. SOME SCTD CLOUDS AOB 1 KFT ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH NAM BUFKIT SHOWING A NOCTURNAL LLJ AROUND 30
KTS AT 1 KFT...NOT ANTICIPATING LOW CIGS BUT AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND
14Z. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE
FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA
EASTMAN...WATEREE RIVER AT WATEREE DAM...AND THE PEE DEE RIVER AT
CHERAW. A FLOOD WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
EDISTO RIVER AT ORANGEBURG LATER IN THE WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1144 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Ongoing weather event across Central Illinois this evening.
Although the storms had relatively little in the way of lightning
and thunder, the rapidly deepening and strengthening low is
resulting in very strong surface winds. The rain is just enough to
help bring down even stronger winds at the mid levels. Wind
reports of estimated 60 mph gusts, as well as a report at Peoria
airport of 71 mph. As for the remainder of the evening, the rain
is coming to an end quickly as the showers move eastward.
However, the gradient winds will continue, and potentially
increase through the overnight somewhat. Continued gusts in the
40-45 mph range can be expected until sunrise tomorrow. Minor
updates to the forecast currently, but no large scale changes
overall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Powerful November storm system is taking aim on central Illinois
this evening, with 20z/2pm surface chart showing a 991mb low over
southwest Iowa. Strong to severe thunderstorms are currently
developing in the vicinity of the low and arcing southward along a
trailing cold front into north-central Missouri. Further
south...another area of showers/storms is developing in association
with the warm conveyor belt across the Ozarks. As the low continues
to deepen and lift toward western Wisconsin, the storms currently
across northern Missouri will shift eastward into west-central
Illinois early this evening. Based on radar timing tools and
consistent forecasts from both the HRRR and 4km NAM, it appears
convection will arrive in the Illinois River Valley between 6pm and
8pm, along the I-55 corridor between 7pm and 9pm, and further east
to the I-57 corridor between 9pm and midnight. Damaging wind gusts
will be the primary severe weather threat across the western KILX
CWA early this evening, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out due to impressive amounts of low-level wind shear. As the
storms race E/NE, the severe wind threat will decrease east of the I-
55 corridor by mid to late evening as the storms tend to weaken with
time. Once the storms pass, very strong gradient winds will develop
as low pressure continues to deepen over Wisconsin. Westerly winds
will increase to between 20 and 30 mph overnight, with gusts
reaching the 40 to 50 mph range. As a result, a Wind Advisory will
remain in effect for all locations along/north of I-70.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
The intense storm system (987 mb) is expected to be over central
thru northeast Wisconsin by Thursday morning with a very tight
pressure gradient across a large portion of the region. Forecast
soundings suggest the potential for 25 to 35 mph sustained winds
with gusts around 50 mph at times into the afternoon hours before we
see a very slow diminishing trend towards evening. With the surface
low pulling away from the area rather quickly, the wrap-around
moisture is expected to lift northeast as well and shift into far
northern IL or southern Wisconsin by evening. A secondary upper
trof will swing southeast across the lower Great Lakes Thursday
night and Friday with gusty winds expected with that system as well,
although not as strong as what we will see tonight and Thursday.
The weather should quiet down for Friday night through the weekend
as high pressure settles across the area. We should start out on
the cool side early in the weekend but as the high shifts off to
our east on Sunday, southerly winds will bring in milder air for
Sunday afternoon. However, it doesn`t look like the nice weather
will hold very long over our area as an active southwest flow
pattern continues into next week with the first of two significant
systems that will affect the Midwest. Showers chances increase
somewhat late Sunday night into Monday, and especially Monday night
into Tuesday as the upper wave tracks across the region.
Unfortunately, the upper wave and associated surface low will not be
a quick mover and will have ample opportunity to bring up some
significant rainfall to our area early next week with POPs in the
forecast through Thursday. The pattern will hold thru the rest of the
week with the latest ECMWF indicating another strong upper level system
poised over the southwest U.S. ready to spread precip back into our area
either late next week or during the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Increasing westerly winds will develop over the next few hours as
a cold front continues to push eastward past the central IL
terminals. West winds expected to reach 25-35 kts with gusts to
around 40 kts overnight into early afternoon Thursday before
gradually decreasing...but remaining quite breezy...around 15 kts
with gusts 20-25 kts. Low cloud cover wrapping around the
departing low pressure system will also arrive in the first few
hours of this TAF forecast period with MVFR cigs arriving by
08-09Z...and remaining until early afternoon.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1255 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING. AS WELL SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN TRACKING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT PRECIP SEEMS TO BE EVAPORATION BEFORE IT
REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...HI RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM
WOULD SUGGEST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP BY 1 AM AND HAVE TIMED THIS
WITH POPS. THE OTHER CONCERN HERE IS WITH THE WINDS. NEW MODEL
UPDATES WOULD SUGGEST DURING THE 09Z TO 15Z PERIOD...SOME STRONGER
THAN 30 MPH WINDS COULD REACH THE SURFACE. WITH 50 TO 55 KNOTS AT
850 HEADING INTO THE MORNING HOURS...SOME STRONGER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP THE SPS GOING FOR THIS AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR THE CURRENT TEMP AND DEW POINTS.
WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING...TEMPS
HAVE BEEN DROPPING OFF RATHER SLOWLY. FOR NOW THE POPS SEEM ON
TIME BUT WITH THE 00Z NAM AND HI RES PRODUCTS ISSUED LATER...WILL
GET A BETTER IDEA ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHILE AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS ALSO MAKING FOR A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY. HERE IN THE EAST...THOUGH...WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE
SUBDUED...BUT STILL TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S NORTH AND TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH. A BAND OF
HIGH CLOUDS DID DEVELOP AND HELPED SLOW THE TEMP RISE IN THE
NORTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHARP CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEY ALL DEPICT THIS LOW PUSHING
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
BAND OF WEAKENING ENERGY DOWN INTO KENTUCKY. BY THURSDAY
EVENING...THE MAIN LOW WILL BE PASSING INTO ONTARIO WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A SERIES OF MINOR ENERGY PACKETS THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILD START TO THE EVENING...BUT
ALSO A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WILL MIX THOSE COLDER TEMPERATURES OUT
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST PLACES. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO
THE LIKELY SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT THESE TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA
WITH THE FALLING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET AND AN OUTRUNNING OF
MID LEVEL SUPPORT. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT THE WORST OF
IT TO BE GENERALLY JUST SOME GUSTY SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY ALONG AND FOLLOWING THIS FRONT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.
WILL HIT THE WINDS HARD IN THE HWO AND ALSO ISSUE AN SPS
HIGHLIGHTING THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
FOR THURSDAY. ONE LAST WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED...POST FRONTAL...
BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA MOVES IN LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
VALLEY DROP OFF AND TO A LESSER AND OPPOSITE EXTENT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO ALL
GUIDANCE IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TONIGHT AND GENERALLY JUST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE EXITING TO THE EAST FOR THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...REINFORCING THIS TROUGH.
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH VERY DRY LOW/MID
LEVELS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS DYING OFF...AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING. WITH
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVERHEAD...EXPECT COLD MORNINGS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S. SOME
READINGS INTO THE LOWER 20S WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND...BUT STILL EXPECTING
SOME DECENT RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
A SHARP TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE REMAINS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THIS FEATURE...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE FEATURE IS STILL WELL OFF
SHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS. FOR THIS REASON...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH ON
WHEN RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION. IT APPEARS THE
BEST STAB AT RAIN CHANCES MOVING BACK IN WOULD BE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL PLAY A PART IN HOW MUCH
DOWNSLOPING WE SEE...WHICH MAY DELAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015
PRECIPITATION AND WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH EASTERN KY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
TODAY...WITH PRECIP AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM STARTING IN THE NEXT HOUR AT KSYM AND KSME...SPREADING
EASTWARD TO KSJS BY 8Z. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBS FROM SITES
CURRENTLY RECEIVING RAIN TO OUR WEST...STILL EXPECTING CIGS TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR...THOUGH IT DOESN/T SEEM AS THOUGH RAIN WILL
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH VIS RESTRICTION. WENT AHEAD AND
GEARED TAFS TOWARD MVFR WORST CASE SCENARIOS FOR DURING THE TIME
THE RAIN IS OVERHEAD. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z /FROM WEST TO EAST/ AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THEY SHIFT TO A MORE WSW DIRECTION.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1146 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.AVIATION...
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SFC WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP WITH THE INCREASING GRADIENT EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONG SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW CROSSING LAKE MI WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE OVERALL TREND OF THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD EAST. IF THEY
HOLD TOGETHER...A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS /8-11Z/ WILL BE
POSSIBLE. NOT QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE
TERMINALS ATTM. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS AROUND 13Z AND WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS. A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG/BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS AROUND
OR IN EXCESS OF 45 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN GUSTY
/OVER 35 KNOTS WITH BRIEF BURSTS OVER 45 KNOTS/ THROUGH THE DAY WITH
A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE WINDS EXPECTED LATE THURS AFTERNOON AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND BOOSTS THE MIXED LAYER.
FOR DTW...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE OF A 13Z FROPA CAUSING A RAPID
VEERING OF THE WINDS FROM 160 TO 230 DEG...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF TIME OF WIND GUSTS OVER 45 KNOTS. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO WIND DIRECTION HOVERING AROUND 230 TO 240 DEG
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OTHER THAN THE BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE
WINDS AROUND 13Z...THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LOOK TO OCCUR LATER
THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 918 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
UPDATE...
AS OF THE 02Z SFC ANALYSIS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM /986 MB/ WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THAT
STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS INTO THE STRAITS REGION BY 18Z THURS. A
50-70KT LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY FEEDING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INTO THE CONVECTION ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN RAPIDLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS INDIANA
ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE DRIVEN INTO SE MI TONIGHT AND WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN
QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM. WHILE THIS REGION OF
CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO LOWER MI...A
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI IN THE
09Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. THIS ALONG WITH THE GOOD MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AND AMOUNT OF THUNDER UPSTREAM WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER LATE TONIGHT.
AS FOR THE WIND HEADLINES...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE WELL ELEVATED
AND HAVE A DEEP NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER TO CONTEND WITH TO
INHIBIT STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SFC PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SEVERAL HI RES SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND WRF
ARW/WRF NMM SUGGEST AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SFC COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT /PASSING THROUGH 11-15Z/. A
RAPID REDUCTION IN NEAR SFC STABILITY/STEEPENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT MIXING THE STRONGER WINDS
DOWN WITH THESE SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN THURS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 413 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
SHORT TERM... LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
A PLEASANT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
THE LATEST DATA INDICATES THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD PRECEDING THE BIG WIND EVENT
THAT WILL GET UNDERWAY DURING THURSDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY EVENING. INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE
OF HIGHER END WIND GUSTS SUPPORTS UPGRADE TO WIND ADVISORY/WIND
WARNING FOR THURSDAY IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE FIRST SIGN OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL OCCUR AS GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
RAMPS UP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND EVOLVES INTO
A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS. LOW TO MID LEVEL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A
SHARP MOISTURE AXIS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO RAPIDLY
INCREASING AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
FORCE A STRONG SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION OVER SE MICHIGAN IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER THAT WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS WITH BANDS OF GREATER CONCENTRATION WITHIN.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME WHILE 850 MB LI DROPS TO ABOUT -1C BY
09Z/4AM WHICH SUPPORTS ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ADDED
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SPC OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL THUNDER. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED STABLE LAYER UP TO ABOUT 2500 FEET ABOVE
WHICH THE STRONG WIND FIELD WILL BE CONFINED. GRADIENT WIND WILL
INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TOWARD SUNRISE. CATEGORICAL POPS ALSO REMAIN ON TARGET BUT WITH NO
CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS TOTALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER
0.5 INCH DUE TO THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN THROUGH SUNRISE
THURSDAY.
FOR THE WIND EVENT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY AT 995 MB IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN BY NEARLY 20 MB IN 24 HOURS TO ABOUT 985 MB WHILE
REACHING THE STRAITS/TIP OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY NOON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A POWERFUL COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION THAT WILL SURGE
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THURSDAY MORNING TO BEGIN THE HIGH
WIND EVENT. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN FOR A PROLONGED EVENT WITH MORE THAN
ONE PEAK OF ADVISORY/WARNING GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE. THE FIRST
WINDOW WILL BE DURING THE MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE/SHOWER ENHANCEMENT. THE
SECOND WINDOW WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND INTENSIFIED
WESTERLY GRADIENT WIND. THE LATEST DATA SUPPORTS THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST WIND...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-69 INITIALLY.
THE NAM IS NOW ONBOARD WITH MULTIPLE BINS OF 50+ KNOT WESTERLY FLOW
IN THE POST FRONT MIXED LAYER OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS ADDS
CONFIDENCE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW 60 MPH SURFACE WIND GUSTS...
AND MULTIPLE HOURS OF UPPER 50 MPH GUSTS...OVER SOUTH SECTIONS OF
THE REGION. THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE POSED BY THIS
SCENARIO WARRANTS THE WARNING UPGRADE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL
HOURS OF GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH IN THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB
WHERE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.
MODEL TIMING ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS SOLID FROM ABOUT 11Z/6AM
TO 15Z/10 AM. THERE IS ALSO AGREEMENT ON SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT RAISES SOME CONCERN THAT
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DIRECTING STRONGER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE
ON THE INTERFACE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DIRECTLY BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT. A MODEST ISALLOBARIC PUNCH OF ONLY 2-3 MB/3HRS AND WEAK LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OF LIMITED SUPPORT FOR GUSTS FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION AND
PRESSURE RISES THAT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SEPARATE PEAK IN GUST
POTENTIAL DURING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE
NAM IS MORE BULLISH ON BOTH THE DYNAMIC FORCING WITH UP TO 6 MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE AND A DEEPER MIXED LAYER WITH STRONGER MEAN WIND. THIS
WAS THE PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR EXTENDING THE WIND HEADLINE INTO THE
EVENING AFTER SUNSET...AND ALSO SUGGESTS SOME SORT OF WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINE EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM...
SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE QUICKLY ENTERING MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/PV OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STORM...WITH CONSOLIDATED COLD POOL/500 MB LOW TRACKING THROUGH
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PER 12Z EURO...500 MB TEMPS OF -32 TO -33 C...WITH
-13 C AT 700 MB. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEPTHS IN EXCESS
OF 10 KFT...AND FULLY EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THE INSTABILITY
AND LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCEMENT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -3 C TO -6
C RANGE (SEE COLDER REGIONAL GEM). AS SUCH...WOULD EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WITH ANY HEAVIER ACTIVITY...AS WET
BULBING EFFECTS SHOULD QUICKLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CRASH FROM THE HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S. IN ADDITION...RIGHT NOW EXPECTING WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH IN THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH THE INVERTED V IN THE LOWEST 2000 KFT COULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. EXCELLENT POST WAVE
SUBSIDENCE LOOKS TO BE OCCURRING RIGHT AROUND 00Z SATURDAY...WITH
EXTREME DRYING OCCURRING AT 700 MB. CONFIDENCE IN SCOURING OUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AT 850-925 MB IS NOT HIGH...AND HAVE
TRENDED SKY COVER TO JUST PARTLY CLOUDY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THROUGH MID WEEK.
MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY RAMPING UP THROUGH
TONIGHT...REACHING 25 TO 35 KNOTS BY 12Z THURSDAY...AS VERY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THEN
TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW. THIS LOW WILL DRIVE
A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST GALES FOLLOWING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. BRIEF STORM FORCE WINDS APPEAR LIKELY FOR LAKE ST
CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE WITHIN THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
PUNCH...AND HAVE UPGRADED TO STORM WARNING. WITH HIGHER END
SOUTHWEST GALES/LOW END STORMS DEVELOPING OVER LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER
WILL BECOME AN ISSUE FOR THE WESTERN BASIN...AND A LOW WATER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AS THE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 4.5 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SAGINAW
BAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND 18 INCHES BELOW CHART DATUM...AND LOW WATER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE AS WELL.
A SECOND SYSTEM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PRIMARY STORM ON FRIDAY WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END GALES FOR FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MARINE WATERS...AS MUCH COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...GENERATING INSTABILITY SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS...AND
ENHANCING THE THERMAL TROUGHING OVER LAKE HURON. GALE WARNINGS WHERE
EXTENDED FOR SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTH HALF.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ063.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ363-
441>443-462>464.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR LHZ421-422.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-422.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ361-
362.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LEZ444.
STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
356 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE CONTINUED WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ONCE AGAIN WITH MIXING. ONLY EXPECTING MODEST
PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND WITH 925 AND 850 HPA
WINDS REMAINING NEAR 30 AND 40-45 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...EXPECT WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LAT MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL BRING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON TO FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. NAM SHOWS A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY NEAR THE CLOUD LAYER...WHILE THE RUC AND GFS ARE A
LITTLE BIT MORE STABLE. WITH CLOUD DECK ONLY AT 2000 FEET OR
SO...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH EVAPORATION OF ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS.
THEREFORE...HAVE A MENTION OF SPRINKLES NEAR MARSHALL TO WINDOM FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT WILL BE A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
WINDS REMAINING STRONGER ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE...WILL BE WARMER
THERE BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
SEASONALLY PLEASANT WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS QUASI-ZONAL AT THE END OF WEEK...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TO TODAY...HOWEVER DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO IMPROVE A
FEW DEGREES. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN PARTICULAR WILL BE MILD WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE AT AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS WEEKEND UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW SOME MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN TO LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE SWINGING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS POTENTIALLY CLIPS OUR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE IN HOW QUICKLY THIS
TRANSLATES INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE QUICKEST...AND
WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM SHOW SIMILAR TIMING...THE GEM IS MUCH
FURTHER EAST. AS IT STANDS...OUR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW EAST OF I29 ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED HEADING INTO MID WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
CONFIDENCE REALLY STARTS TO DROP WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM AS
LONGER RANGE MODELS DEPICT VERY DIFFERENT TRACKS AND STRENGTHS OF
THIS FEATURE. ALL DO MATERIALIZE A STRONG AND LARGE CUT OFF
LOW...BUT WHETHER IT STALLS...TRACKS NORTHEAST OR MORE DUE EAST IS
TO BE SEEN. WILL LEAVE ALL BLEND POPS AS IS...AND WILL KEEP WATCHING
THE TRENDS OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN SHOULD EXIT FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY 09Z. STILL PERIODIC MVFR VISIBILITY IN THE RAIN
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR VISIBILITY IN BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WILL BE PREVALENT TO
START THE PERIOD...BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE STORM SYSTEM IN IOWA LIFTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES.
VERY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE SYSTEM
AS WELL. PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 40+ KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS THURSDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35KT. WINDS WILL FINALLY
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038>040-050-
052>071.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-089-
097-098.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ081-
090.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ081-090.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-002-012-013-
020-021-031-032.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR IAZ003-
014-022.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ003-014-022.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
337 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A LINE OF SHOWERS...
REPRESENTING THE TAIL END OF A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT...IS MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE TEXAS COAST AT 15 TO 20
MPH. SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS ARE ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THIS
PRODUCT GOES OUT...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY
NEAR DAWN OR NOT LONG THEREAFTER. THE HRRR IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS
EXTENDING FARTHER DOWN THE LINE INTO THE MID VALLEY RIGHT AFTER
DAWN...THEN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND CONCENTRATED OVER THE LOWER
VALLEY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. IN THE MEANTIME...PATCHY LIGHT TO MDT FOG HAS
SET UP ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FROPA.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 70 OVER THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO NEAR 80 AT BRO. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST WITH WHAT WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MULITLAYERED CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FADE BY MID AFTERNOON...
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER THE RANCHLANDS TO THE
UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY MORE TO NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN FROM THE 60S OVER THE UPPER VALLEY TO THE MID
70S OVER THE LOWER VALLEY. LOW END RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL NOT PUSH VERY MUCH
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A WEAK S/W TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INLAND SATURDAY THEN WEEKEND SUNDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND SFC FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS WEEKEND WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE SATURDAY THEN MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES. THAT S/W
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW. A MUCH STRONGER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY AND INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WSW DRY AIR AND CAPPING
WHICH WILL DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST BUT
EASTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. LIKE LAST NIGHT, FRONTAL TIMING LOOKS REASONABLE
BUT STRENGTH IS OF QUESTION. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ROUGHLY 6-12 HOURS
BEHIND THE PASSAGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BY DAY
BREAK...BRINGING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND MID MORNING. WILL
HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DAY. THE MAIN PUSH WILL BE
RATHER BRIEF HOWEVER...WITH WINDS DECREASING BACK BELOW 20 KNOTS
LATER IN THE DAY. SEAS WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF TIME TO REACT...
BUILDING TO SIX OR SEVEN FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THERE
MAY BE SOME REINFORCEMENT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OUT OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH SEAS ALSO GETTING ANOTHER CHANCE TO BUILD
WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COASTAL TROUGHING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS ELEVATED AND
WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 7 FEET /POSSIBLY WITH SWELL ADDED IN DUE TO
LONG EASTERLY FETCH/ SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS SUNDAY AND DISSIPATES BY MONDAY
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN WINDS...
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND SIX FEET. THEREFORE...
SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 68 74 68 / 30 20 30 30
BROWNSVILLE 80 66 75 66 / 30 20 40 40
HARLINGEN 80 65 75 65 / 30 20 30 30
MCALLEN 78 63 72 62 / 30 20 30 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 61 67 59 / 20 10 30 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 71 74 70 / 40 20 30 30
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-132-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BIRCHFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1142 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
FRONT MOVING THROUGH NOW WITH LINE OF SHOWERS. LOW CIGS NEAR AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE LINE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR CATEGORY. WINDS THEN LOOK TO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AS
SOME STRONGER WINDS...NOW OVER METROPLEX...MAKE THERE WAY DOWN
THIS WAY. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A GUSTY DAY...BUT NO ISSUES WITH
CIGS OR LOWER VSBYS GIVEN MUCH DRIER AIR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015/
UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
REALLY IT IS A SAD LOOKING LINE OF STORMS STRETCHING FROM
LIVINGSTON SW BACK TO BELLVILLE. CAPPING HAS BEEN TOO STRONG AS
BOTH 00Z CRP/LCH SOUNDINGS SHOW. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER AS
WELL. AS A RESULT WE GET A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG THE DRYLINE. 03Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ACTUAL COLD FRONT ACROSS
N TX FROM NEAR ABILENE TO DFW WITH DRYLINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF IT. ACTUAL COLD FRONT SHOULD CATCH UP WITH THE DRYLINE
LATER TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SE TX. LATEST HRRR RUNS SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND LINE OF SHOWERS.
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
IT LOOKS LIKE ANY IMPACTS FROM THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
LIMITED TO SOME 30 MPH WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AS THE MOVE
THROUGH HOUSTON LATER TONIGHT CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.
AVIATION...
LOOKING FOR A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION TO MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACRS
THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
TIMING FROM 02Z-03Z FOR CLL TO 06Z-08Z FOR GLS AND LBX. OUT AHEAD
OF THAT JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS UNDER THE CAP. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE LINE GOES THROUGH.
FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER FOR CXO...UTS...AND CLL...WHERE CAP
NOT AS STRONG BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH THE LINE PASSAGE FOR
OTHER TAF SITES AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THUNDER IS
NEEDED. HAVE TREATED AS MODERATE SHOWERS FOR THE TAF SITES WITHOUT
THUNDER...AND MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THOSE NORTHERN SITES.
BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY. 46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 1 PM...A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A WELL DEFINED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE LOW INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT TRAILS WELL BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THAT SAID...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
THE CATALYST FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS SE TX. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH COUPLED WITH A
RIGHT REAR QUAD AND PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.70 AND 2.00 INCHES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A SWATH OF SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP BY 00Z AND CROSS THE CWA
BY 06Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AT A STEADY CLIP SO EXCESSIVE RAIN
IS NOT EXPECTED. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE AND STILL
NOT CONVINCED THE CAP WILL COMPLETELY ERODE BUT SOME SIGN THAT
THE CAP HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN IN THE ARKLATEX AND THIS WEAKENING
TREND DOES EXTEND SW INTO SE TX. FEEL THAT EVENTUALLY THE
DYNAMICAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE JET AND THE STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE
WILL OVERCOME THE WEAKENING CAP AND SHRA/TSRA WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AROUND 00Z. RAISED POPS TO 70 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA WITH LOWER POPS TO THE W-SW. SPC STILL HAS MUCH OF
THE AREA OUTLOOKED IN MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK. THE RISK IS SMALL
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANIED THE
STRONGER STORMS IN HOUSTON/TRINITY COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
THE COOLER AIR WILL LAG A BIT UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONT ARRIVES LATE
TONIGHT...SO LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THU-FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND LOW LEVEL MSTR BEGINS TO RETURN. THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES SW AND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN BACK TO THE REGION ON SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE
TEXAS TECH WRF IS BRINGING A SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
ON FRIDAY BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH MSTR WITH A DRY
NE SFC FLOW IN PLACE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ANOTHER
EPISODE OF RAIN. A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND KICK EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ON TUESDAY AS IT CROSSES NORTH TEXAS.
DEEP MSTR COUPLED WITH A SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE AND SHARP SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA. THE DYNAMICS ON MON NITE/EARLY TUES LOOK RATHER
IMPRESSIVE AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THE
BOUNDARY LATE MON NITE. 43
MARINE...
EVENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER SLIGHTLY WEST AS A
CENTRAL TEXAS COLD FRONT ENTERS EASTERN TEXAS. THE FRONT IS TIMED TO
MAKE IT OFF THE COAST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM THURSDAY...
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS TO ADVISORY
LEVELS. THE EARLY THURSDAY FORECAST IS FOR SUSTAINED 20-25 KNOT
WINDS...GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS...TO IMPACT THE LOCAL BAYS AND GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS BACKING HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
OVER THE REGION AND THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY
EARLY THIS WEEKEND...A LONG DURATION MODERATE NORTHEAST FETCH WILL
SET UP OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED TIDES AND HIGHER GULF WAVE HEIGHTS...AN AVERAGE 4 FEET
(NEARSHORE)TO 7 FEET (OFFSHORE) INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 53 71 51 64 48 / 40 0 0 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 59 72 53 67 50 / 60 0 0 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 66 70 61 68 58 / 50 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
418 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EST THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING INTO CENTRAL TN/KY SHOULD ZIP EAST...CROSSING
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE JETTING TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AXIS OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOKS TO APPROACH
THE FAR WESTERN CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH BEST LIFT/DEEPER
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FAR NW AND POINTS NORTH EARLY ON.
APPEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND WILL BE WEAKER GIVEN LESS
UPPER SUPPORT SO TRIMMED BACK POPS A LITTLE WITH BEST CHANCES
ESPCLY NORTH BETWEEN 10-14Z PER LATEST HRRR WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.
COULD ALSO BE A BROKEN BAND OF SHRA ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT LATER
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO KEPT A SMALL SWATH OF LOW POPS THROUGH
ABOUT NOON FOR NOW. THUNDER POTENTIAL GIVEN STABILITY ALSO QUITE
SMALL BUT MAINTAINED A MENTION GIVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES TO
THE NORTHWEST.
ONCE THE BOUNDARY CROSSES...A QUICK SHOT OF SUBSIDENCE DRYING IN ORDER
AIDED BY A PASSING 3-5H SPEED MAX TO THE NORTHWEST AND NVA. THIS WILL
BE THE PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR A 3-5 HOUR SURGE IN SURFACE WINDS AS
DRYING PUNCHES IN WHILE THE 85H JET VEERS WESTERLY AND INCREASES TO 40-
45 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH COLD
ADVECTION...GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER HIGH INVERSION WITH MAX DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM ONLY TOUCHING THE RIDGES ABOVE 3K FEET FOR THE MOST PART.
LATEST LOCAL MOS SCHEME ALSO NOT PRODUCING MUCH ADVISORY CRITERIA SINCE
PARAMETERS A LITTLE OUT OF SYNC...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON TIMING AND DEEP
MIXING WOULD SUGGEST PERHAPS ENOUGH THREAT PER PAST EVENTS TO INCLUDE A
WIND ADVISORY HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM MIDDAY ON. OTRW LAGGING COLD
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPE MIXING
LIKELY TO AGAIN PUSH HIGHS TO AT OR ABOVE MOS. COULD EVEN SEE SPOTS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BREAK 70 SO BOOSTED HIGHS A GOOD CATEGORY OR
TWO WITH SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PER LATEST EC MOS.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF
THE 85H BOUNDARY...REPRESENTING THE ONSET OF THE BETTER COLD
ADVECTION. THIS ALONG WITH A LOWERING INVERSION...PROGGED 50 KTS
AT 85H...AND A POSSIBLE BREAKING WAVE SCENARIO WITHIN MORE CROSS
BARRIER FLOW SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS ESPCLY
LATE. COULD EVEN SEE HIGHER WINDS GO INTO THE FOOTHILLS WITH
VALUES NEAR WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
THE VA HIGHLANDS. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EARLIER WIND
ADVISORY HEADLINE INTO TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONS NEEDED
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE TODAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW SOME RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
WESTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR MUCH MORE THAN
SOME SPOTTY PRECIP. THUS LEAVING OUT POPS.
ELSEWHERE...SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR ESPCLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT
STILL NOT ALL THAT COLD GIVEN SLOWNESS OF THE COLD AIR TO CROSS THE
BLUE RIDGE AND ONGOING MIXING ALONG WITH WESTERN CLOUDS. THEREFORE
RUNNING CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY 40S EXCEPT A
FEW 30S FAR WEST WHERE MORE EMBEDDED WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...
WILL START FRIDAY MORNING OFF WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE RIDGETOPS...AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST SOON AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
WINDSPEEDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. CONSIDERING THIS...EXPECT WE WILL
MAINTAIN GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY TO 50 MPH ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. THE
STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL HELP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
PIEDMONT WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOW 60S. THAT
STATED...GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER.
DURING FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...THIS ONE ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND
THEREFORE COLDER. LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER
AIR WILL EXPOSE MORE OF THE TERRAIN TO STRONG WINDS AS COMPARED TO
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE THE STRONGEST WINDS
OF THE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...WHERE THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS CAN EXPECT 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS...WHILE THE RIDGETOPS
WILL REACH 50 TO 55 MPH...POSSIBLY 60 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS. THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS DAWN
ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
GIVEN ONLY THE BRIEF LULL BETWEEN THE SURGES OF STRONG WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...FELT IT WAS MORE PRACTICAL TO
LEAVE THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE STRAIGHT THROUGH TO SATURDAY
MORNING. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY...BUT NOT QUITE REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY...PASSING NEARLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SETTLING
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL BRING
WITH IT DRY WEATHER UNDER NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING FOR NEARLY OUR ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMUP AS
WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MONDAY...MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER BUT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE ON TAP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET PHASES OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND A
DEEP TROF DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST...CULMINATING IN A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL SET US UP IN PROLONGED DEEP MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DRIFTS TO OUR EAST AND GIVES US
MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE LOW LEVELS.
THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING
MAINLY BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE BEING INDICATED BY GUIDANCE TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AS ALWAYS...DETAILS IN TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF FEATURES IS
SKETCHY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS POTENTIAL HYDRO EVENT CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
MODELS FAVOR STRONG LOW LVL WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERSION IN THE
09-14Z TIME FRAME. THEREFORE KEPT LLWS IN THE TAFS. EXCEPTIONS ARE
BLF/DAN. BLF AS STRONG WINDS WILL BE WITH SHOWERS...AND DAN WILL
BE OUTSIDE THE CORE OF THE LLJ. STILL AN DECENT IMPACT ON AVIATION
IN THE REGION IN THE MORNING REGARDING TURBULENCE AND SHEAR.
IN TERMS OF THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL SEE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB WITH SHOWERS BETWEEN
12-18Z THU.
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS AND OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THU AFTERNOON. BIG
ISSUE BEHIND IT WILL BE THE GUSTY WEST WINDS. SOME GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER RIDGES LIKE HSP/GEV...WITH MAINLY SUSTAINED
10-15KT GUSTS 20-30KTS AT THE TERMINALS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ASIDE FROM MVFR UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING KLWB
AND KBLF...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WILL PREVAIL MONDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BY LATER SATURDAY AND BECOMING
LIGHT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-
002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
942 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...THEN
TRACKS DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FOR THE START OF THE
NEW WEEK...THEN DEPARTS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST WAS NOT ON TRACK AND HAVE MADE MAJOR CHANGES TO SENSIBLE
WEATHER. PCPN IS ADVECTING ENE AT ALMOST 100 MPH!
LATEST HRRR IS UNDERDONE...BUT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO 100% AND HAVE MOVED UP TIMING OF GOING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...NOW SCHEDULED FOR MID AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY BASED ON PCPN - SO ONLY A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CURRENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE INCREASING W WINDS BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...WITH GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH TONIGHT AND 25-40 MPH FRIDAY.
THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND...AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. FOR THESE WINDS...LEANED
TOWARDS STRONGER GFS 950 HPA WINDS...AS WHILE TYPICALLY OVER
DONE...IT DOES TEND TO FARE BETTER IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY WIDESPREAD AREAS
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 TO MAYBE EVEN 50 MPH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
FROM W TO E AS THE AFOREMENTIONED EXITS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
COULD THEN SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY OVER N/E ZONES IN RESPONSE TO THE OPENING
CUTOFF LOW TRAVERSING TO THE N ACROSS S ONTARIO/QUEBEC.
FOR NOW GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY...AS A WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM 700-500 HPA RIDGE TRANSITS THE AREA.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH READINGS AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL EXPECTED. A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 850-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...AND THEN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE DOMINATED
BY HIGH PRES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO
DEPART AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL STRONG H5 SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE H5 LOW AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STAY NORTH OF THE REGION...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES...OR EVEN SOME FLURRIES...FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR NW INTERIOR ZONES. A GUSTY NW FLOW OF 15-20 MPH
WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS WILL USHER UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AS HIGHS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE WIND CHILL WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S DURING THE DAY.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR
SUNDAY. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BEFORE SLOWLY DEPARTING
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH...TEMPS WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 60.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BUMP UP POPS TO CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES TONIGHT. SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...LOCALLY BELOW
IFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IFR COULD
VERY WELL EXTEND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS.
IMPROVEMENT OCCURS TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SE WINDS NEAR 10 KT WILL START GUSTING TO 15-20 KT INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 25 KT FOR THIS EVENING.
A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40 KT AT 2KFT COMES IN TONIGHT AS WELL.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR 17-19Z. LOWER CHANCES OF
IFR BEFORE 17Z AS WELL AS BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR 17-19Z. LOWER CHANCES OF
IFR BEFORE 17Z AS WELL AS BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR 17-19Z. LOWER CHANCES OF
IFR BEFORE 17Z AS WELL AS BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR 17-19Z. LOWER CHANCES OF
IFR BEFORE 17Z AS WELL AS BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A CHANCE OF LIFR 17-22Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR BEFORE 18Z. A CHANCE OF
IFR 18-00Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...VFR. W WINDS G25-35KT.
.SAT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT...DIMINISHING LATE EVENING.
.SUNDAY-MON...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE FAR S PARTS OF THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES REMAIN AROUND 5 FT...SO HAVE CONTINUED EXISTING SCA IN
THOSE ZONES FOR THIS MORNING.
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO SCA LEVELS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS...NY HARBOR AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND ON ALL NON- OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT. THUS HAVE
STARTED THE SCA FOR NY HARBOR AND THE S SHORE BAYS ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE CONTINUING TO START THE REMAINDER OF THE NON-
OCEAN WATERS SCA AT 23Z.
STILL APPEARS THAT SHOULD GET SUFFICIENT MIXING OVER THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT TO MIX DOWN 35-40 KT FLOW AT 950
HPA...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
LEANED TOWARDS STRONGER 950 HPA WINDS IN GFS FOR FRIDAY...AS THEY
TEND TO PREFORM A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM IN THESE TYPES OF
SET UPS (NAM TENDS TO BE UNDER DONE)...SO HAVE EXPANDED THE GALE
WARNING TO COVER ALL MARINE ZONES FOR FRIDAY. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO AT LEAST 6-11 FT BY FRIDAY
MORNING...HIGHEST EAST OF MORICHES INLET.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTY NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH GALES ON AT LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED ON THE BAYS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.
HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 OF AN INCH OR LESS OF QPF IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...THEN
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDES HAVE PASSED FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT FOR LINDENHURST
ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE. LOOKS LIKE WE`LL JUST TOUCH MINOR ON THE
WESTERN SOUND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ071-073-176-177.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ074-075-080-
178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ338-345.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JMC/JM
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
655 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
WINDY AND SEASONABLY COLDER WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND
POSSIBLY THE LAUREL RIDGES. AFTER A BRISK CHILL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AM WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER LOW LIFTING NE ACROSS LK
MICHIGAN. ASSOC LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS IS PUSHING
INTO WESTERN PA AT 10Z...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS. A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED UPSTREAM...SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF
TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PA AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THRU
LATER THIS MORNING.
BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS AND LATEST HRRR...HAVE RAMPED POPS
UPWARD TO BTWN 80-100 PCT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA. LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION AND NR TERM MDL DATA INDICATES MOST PLACES WILL SEE
A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF LL JET...BEGINNING
ARND 11Z ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...AND BEGINNING ARND 13-14Z
OVER THOSE AREAS EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.
TEMPS SHOULD SHOOT UP ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY THIS AFTN...AS
SHOWERS EXIT EASTERN PA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MILD AIR INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THRU CENTRAL PA BTWN 18Z-22Z...ACCOMPANIED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER
IN SPOTS. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTN /ESP WESTERN PA/ AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT BEGIN
MIXING TO GROUND LEVEL. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT
SUPPORT GUSTS NEAR 40KTS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE A
WIND ADV IS NOW IN EFFECT.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THRU TONIGHT...AS
DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF PA THRU THE E GRT LKS.
WHERE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LYR OF MOISTURE ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY
MTNS...THERE SHOULD BE PERSISTENT STRATOCU/SCT -SHRA TONIGHT.
FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD A DRY NIGHT WITH
A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
WILL BE WSWLY...FAVORING LAKE ENHANCED PCPN ALIGNED CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORE FROM ERIE CO INTO CHAUTAUQUA CO IN FAR SWRN NY. HOWEVER
BLYR WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW AND BECOME WELL-ALIGNED LATER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION /1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMTS UP TO 3
INCHES/ IN PARTS OF WARREN/MCKEAN AND ELK COUNTY. LIGHTER AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A DUSTING UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE LAUREL RIDGES...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF RT 219.
FRI-SAT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL AVERAGE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
MID-NOVEMBER CLIMO...WITH GUSTY WINDS ADDING AN ADDITIONAL CHILL.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/LOWERING INVERSION HGTS COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL SPELL AND END
TO THE LAKE ENHANCED AND OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OFF THE EAST
COAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER PATTERN BY MID
NOVEMBER STANDARDS.
THE 12/00Z GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION OF ENERGY CROSSING
THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SPLITTING OVER THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED GFS AND CMC TO A LESSER
EXTENT SUGGEST A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE WHILE
THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SRN STREAM WAVE REACHING THE
MID MS VLY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH SUCH A WIDE SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF
THE PCPN PATTERN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH WHICH SHOWS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN POPS INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OVR THE MIDWEST. SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS/MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. AT KBFD...UPSLOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD EVEN YIELD
A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS LATE THIS AM. THE OTHER ISSUE OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LLWS OVER WESTERN PA...AS A WEAKENING LL
JET MOVES IN FROM OHIO. BASED ON MDL SOUNDINGS...HAVE INCLUDED
LLWS AT KBFD BTWN 12Z-15Z.
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BTWN
18Z-22Z...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST WINDS...WHICH WILL LAST THRU
FRIDAY. RESIDUAL POST-FRONTAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST THRU THIS
EVENING...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE MTNS...RESULTS
IN PRIMARILY VFR CONDS ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...GUSTY WINDS. EVENING SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST.
SAT...EARLY AM SHSN/REDUCED CIGS POSS AT KBFD/KJST.
SUN/MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010-
011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
543 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
WINDY AND SEASONABLY COLDER WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND
POSSIBLY THE LAUREL RIDGES. AFTER A BRISK CHILL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AM WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER LOW LIFTING NE ACROSS LK
MICHIGAN. ASSOC LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS IS PUSHING
INTO WESTERN PA AT 10Z...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS. A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED UPSTREAM...SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF
TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PA AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THRU
LATER THIS MORNING.
BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS AND LATEST HRRR...HAVE RAMPED POPS
UPWARD TO BTWN 80-100 PCT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA. LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION AND NR TERM MDL DATA INDICATES MOST PLACES WILL SEE
A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF LL JET...BEGINNING
ARND 11Z ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...AND BEGINNING ARND 13-14Z
OVER THOSE AREAS EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.
TEMPS SHOULD SHOOT UP ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY THIS AFTN...AS
SHOWERS EXIT EASTERN PA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MILD AIR INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THRU CENTRAL PA BTWN 18Z-22Z...ACCOMPANIED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER
IN SPOTS. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTN /ESP WESTERN PA/ AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT BEGIN
MIXING TO GROUND LEVEL. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT
SUPPORT GUSTS NEAR 40KTS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE A
WIND ADV IS NOW IN EFFECT.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THRU TONIGHT...AS
DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF PA THRU THE E GRT LKS.
WHERE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LYR OF MOISTURE ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY
MTNS...THERE SHOULD BE PERSISTENT STRATOCU/SCT -SHRA TONIGHT.
FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD A DRY NIGHT WITH
A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
WILL BE WSWLY...FAVORING LAKE ENHANCED PCPN ALIGNED CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORE FROM ERIE CO INTO CHAUTAUQUA CO IN FAR SWRN NY. HOWEVER
BLYR WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW AND BECOME WELL-ALIGNED LATER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION /1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMTS UP TO 3
INCHES/ IN PARTS OF WARREN/MCKEAN AND ELK COUNTY. LIGHTER AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A DUSTING UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE LAUREL RIDGES...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF RT 219.
FRI-SAT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL AVERAGE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
MID-NOVEMBER CLIMO...WITH GUSTY WINDS ADDING AN ADDITIONAL CHILL.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/LOWERING INVERSION HGTS COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL SPELL AND END
TO THE LAKE ENHANCED AND OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OFF THE EAST
COAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER PATTERN BY MID
NOVEMBER STANDARDS.
THE 12/00Z GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION OF ENERGY CROSSING
THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SPLITTING OVER THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED GFS AND CMC TO A LESSER
EXTENT SUGGEST A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE WHILE
THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SRN STREAM WAVE REACHING THE
MID MS VLY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH SUCH A WIDE SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF
THE PCPN PATTERN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH WHICH SHOWS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN POPS INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OVR THE MIDWEST. SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS/MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. AT KBFD...UPSLOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD EVEN YIELD
A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS LATE THIS AM. THE OTHER ISSUE OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LLWS OVER WESTERN PA...AS A WEAKENING LL JET
MOVES IN FROM OHIO. BASED ON MDL SOUNDINGS...HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT
KBFD/KJST BTWN 10Z-15Z.
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BTWN
18Z-22Z...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST WINDS...WHICH WILL LAST THRU
FRIDAY. RESIDUAL POST-FRONTAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST THRU THIS
EVENING...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE MTNS...RESULTS
IN PRIMARILY VFR CONDS ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...GUSTY WINDS. EVENING SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST.
SAT...EARLY AM SHSN/REDUCED CIGS POSS AT KBFD/KJST.
SUN/MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010-
011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
537 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE CONTINUED WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ONCE AGAIN WITH MIXING. ONLY EXPECTING MODEST
PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND WITH 925 AND 850 HPA
WINDS REMAINING NEAR 30 AND 40-45 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...EXPECT WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LAT MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL BRING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON TO FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. NAM SHOWS A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY NEAR THE CLOUD LAYER...WHILE THE RUC AND GFS ARE A
LITTLE BIT MORE STABLE. WITH CLOUD DECK ONLY AT 2000 FEET OR
SO...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH EVAPORATION OF ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS.
THEREFORE...HAVE A MENTION OF SPRINKLES NEAR MARSHALL TO WINDOM FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT WILL BE A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
WINDS REMAINING STRONGER ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE...WILL BE WARMER
THERE BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
SEASONALLY PLEASANT WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS QUASI-ZONAL AT THE END OF WEEK...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TO TODAY...HOWEVER DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO IMPROVE A
FEW DEGREES. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN PARTICULAR WILL BE MILD WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE AT AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS WEEKEND UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW SOME MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN TO LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE SWINGING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS POTENTIALLY CLIPS OUR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE IN HOW QUICKLY THIS
TRANSLATES INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE QUICKEST...AND
WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM SHOW SIMILAR TIMING...THE GEM IS MUCH
FURTHER EAST. AS IT STANDS...OUR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW EAST OF I29 ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED HEADING INTO MID WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
CONFIDENCE REALLY STARTS TO DROP WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM AS
LONGER RANGE MODELS DEPICT VERY DIFFERENT TRACKS AND STRENGTHS OF
THIS FEATURE. ALL DO MATERIALIZE A STRONG AND LARGE CUT OFF
LOW...BUT WHETHER IT STALLS...TRACKS NORTHEAST OR MORE DUE EAST IS
TO BE SEEN. WILL LEAVE ALL BLEND POPS AS IS...AND WILL KEEP WATCHING
THE TRENDS OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038>040-050-
052>071.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-089-
097-098.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ081-
090.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ081-090.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-002-012-013-
020-021-031-032.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR IAZ003-
014-022.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ003-014-022.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
925 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
MORNING. VARIABLE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT AREA
TERMINALS WITH PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A LINE OF SHOWERS...
REPRESENTING THE TAIL END OF A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT...IS MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE TEXAS COAST AT 15 TO 20
MPH. SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS ARE ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THIS
PRODUCT GOES OUT...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY
NEAR DAWN OR NOT LONG THEREAFTER. THE HRRR IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS
EXTENDING FARTHER DOWN THE LINE INTO THE MID VALLEY RIGHT AFTER
DAWN...THEN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND CONCENTRATED OVER THE LOWER
VALLEY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. IN THE MEANTIME...PATCHY LIGHT TO MDT FOG HAS
SET UP ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FROPA.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 70 OVER THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO NEAR 80 AT BRO. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST WITH WHAT WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MULITLAYERED CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FADE BY MID AFTERNOON...
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER THE RANCHLANDS TO THE
UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY MORE TO NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN FROM THE 60S OVER THE UPPER VALLEY TO THE MID
70S OVER THE LOWER VALLEY. LOW END RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL NOT PUSH VERY MUCH
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A WEAK S/W TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INLAND SATURDAY THEN WEEKEND SUNDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND SFC FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS WEEKEND WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE SATURDAY THEN MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES. THAT S/W
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW. A MUCH STRONGER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY AND INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WSW DRY AIR AND CAPPING
WHICH WILL DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST BUT
EASTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. LIKE LAST NIGHT, FRONTAL TIMING LOOKS REASONABLE
BUT STRENGTH IS OF QUESTION. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ROUGHLY 6-12 HOURS
BEHIND THE PASSAGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BY DAY
BREAK...BRINGING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND MID MORNING. WILL
HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DAY. THE MAIN PUSH WILL BE
RATHER BRIEF HOWEVER...WITH WINDS DECREASING BACK BELOW 20 KNOTS
LATER IN THE DAY. SEAS WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF TIME TO REACT...
BUILDING TO SIX OR SEVEN FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THERE
MAY BE SOME REINFORCEMENT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OUT OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH SEAS ALSO GETTING ANOTHER CHANCE TO BUILD
WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COASTAL TROUGHING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS ELEVATED AND
WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 7 FEET /POSSIBLY WITH SWELL ADDED IN DUE TO
LONG EASTERLY FETCH/ SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS SUNDAY AND DISSIPATES BY MONDAY
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN WINDS...
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND SIX FEET. THEREFORE...
SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
58/61
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
936 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST THURSDAY...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL BE MAKING MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND DRIES UP. MAIN CONCERNS TO MONITOR TODAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO
EFFECT AT NOON FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAINLY FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT BELIEVE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE PIEDMONT. WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON TEMPS EAST OF THE RIDGE. GUIDANCE AND WARM AIR ALOFT SUPPORTS
READINGS INTO THE 70S BUT CLOUD COVER MAY NECESSITATE A SLIGHT
TRIM SO WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE.
PREVIOUS AFD...
COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING INTO CENTRAL TN/KY SHOULD ZIP EAST...CROSSING
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE JETTING TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AXIS OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOKS TO APPROACH
THE FAR WESTERN CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH BEST LIFT/DEEPER
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FAR NW AND POINTS NORTH EARLY ON.
APPEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND WILL BE WEAKER GIVEN LESS
UPPER SUPPORT SO TRIMMED BACK POPS A LITTLE WITH BEST CHANCES
ESPCLY NORTH BETWEEN 10-14Z PER LATEST HRRR WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.
COULD ALSO BE A BROKEN BAND OF SHRA ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT LATER
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO KEPT A SMALL SWATH OF LOW POPS THROUGH
ABOUT NOON FOR NOW. THUNDER POTENTIAL GIVEN STABILITY ALSO QUITE
SMALL BUT MAINTAINED A MENTION GIVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES TO
THE NORTHWEST.
ONCE THE BOUNDARY CROSSES...A QUICK SHOT OF SUBSIDENCE DRYING IN ORDER
AIDED BY A PASSING 3-5H SPEED MAX TO THE NORTHWEST AND NVA. THIS WILL
BE THE PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR A 3-5 HOUR SURGE IN SURFACE WINDS AS
DRYING PUNCHES IN WHILE THE 85H JET VEERS WESTERLY AND INCREASES TO 40-
45 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH COLD
ADVECTION...GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER HIGH INVERSION WITH MAX DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM ONLY TOUCHING THE RIDGES ABOVE 3K FEET FOR THE MOST PART.
LATEST LOCAL MOS SCHEME ALSO NOT PRODUCING MUCH ADVISORY CRITERIA SINCE
PARAMETERS A LITTLE OUT OF SYNC...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON TIMING AND DEEP
MIXING WOULD SUGGEST PERHAPS ENOUGH THREAT PER PAST EVENTS TO INCLUDE A
WIND ADVISORY HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM MIDDAY ON. OTRW LAGGING COLD
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPE MIXING
LIKELY TO AGAIN PUSH HIGHS TO AT OR ABOVE MOS. COULD EVEN SEE SPOTS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BREAK 70 SO BOOSTED HIGHS A GOOD CATEGORY OR
TWO WITH SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PER LATEST EC MOS.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF
THE 85H BOUNDARY...REPRESENTING THE ONSET OF THE BETTER COLD
ADVECTION. THIS ALONG WITH A LOWERING INVERSION...PROGGED 50 KTS
AT 85H...AND A POSSIBLE BREAKING WAVE SCENARIO WITHIN MORE CROSS
BARRIER FLOW SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS ESPCLY
LATE. COULD EVEN SEE HIGHER WINDS GO INTO THE FOOTHILLS WITH
VALUES NEAR WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
THE VA HIGHLANDS. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EARLIER WIND
ADVISORY HEADLINE INTO TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONS NEEDED
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE TODAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW SOME RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
WESTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR MUCH MORE THAN
SOME SPOTTY PRECIP. THUS LEAVING OUT POPS.
ELSEWHERE...SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR ESPCLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT
STILL NOT ALL THAT COLD GIVEN SLOWNESS OF THE COLD AIR TO CROSS THE
BLUE RIDGE AND ONGOING MIXING ALONG WITH WESTERN CLOUDS. THEREFORE
RUNNING CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY 40S EXCEPT A
FEW 30S FAR WEST WHERE MORE EMBEDDED WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...
WILL START FRIDAY MORNING OFF WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE RIDGETOPS...AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST SOON AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
WINDSPEEDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. CONSIDERING THIS...EXPECT WE WILL
MAINTAIN GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY TO 50 MPH ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. THE
STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL HELP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
PIEDMONT WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOW 60S. THAT
STATED...GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER.
DURING FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...THIS ONE ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND
THEREFORE COLDER. LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER
AIR WILL EXPOSE MORE OF THE TERRAIN TO STRONG WINDS AS COMPARED TO
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE THE STRONGEST WINDS
OF THE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...WHERE THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS CAN EXPECT 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS...WHILE THE RIDGETOPS
WILL REACH 50 TO 55 MPH...POSSIBLY 60 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS. THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS DAWN
ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
GIVEN ONLY THE BRIEF LULL BETWEEN THE SURGES OF STRONG WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...FELT IT WAS MORE PRACTICAL TO
LEAVE THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE STRAIGHT THROUGH TO SATURDAY
MORNING. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY...BUT NOT QUITE REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY...PASSING NEARLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SETTLING
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL BRING
WITH IT DRY WEATHER UNDER NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING FOR NEARLY OUR ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMUP AS
WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MONDAY...MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER BUT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE ON TAP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET PHASES OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND A
DEEP TROF DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST...CULMINATING IN A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL SET US UP IN PROLONGED DEEP MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DRIFTS TO OUR EAST AND GIVES US
MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE LOW LEVELS.
THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING
MAINLY BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE BEING INDICATED BY GUIDANCE TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AS ALWAYS...DETAILS IN TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF FEATURES IS
SKETCHY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS POTENTIAL HYDRO EVENT CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM EST THURSDAY...
BASED ON LATEST MODELS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
MENTION A WHILE LONGER AT MOST SITES UNTIL THINGS MIX OUT ALLOWING
STRONGER GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE...MAINLY AFTER 14Z/9AM. EXPECT
KBLF TO KEEP PERIODIC GUSTS ONGOING SO LEFT OUT THERE AS WELL AS
KDAN WHERE EAST OF THE BEST JET ALOFT EARLY ON. OTHERWISE SHOWERS
REMAIN LIMITED TO MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KBLF-KLWB ATTM BUT
EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING IN EITHER A VCSH OR PREVAILING MAINLY VFR
SHOWER MENTION AT BOTH THE SOUTHEAST WEST VA LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS
AS FAR EAST AS KBCB THIS MORNING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALSO
POSSIBLE BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SWINGS EAST BY MIDDAY. A BAND OF
CLOUDS MAY ALSO SWING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPCLY NORTHERN SECTIONS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THINKING LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE WITH
CIGS MOSTLY VFR. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR
AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AS A PUNCH OF DRY
AIR WORKS EAST.
OTHER BIG ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE THE GUSTY WEST WINDS AT
TIMES BOTH ALONG AND ESPCLY JUST BEHIND THE PASSING BOUNDARY. SOME
GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER RIDGES LIKE HSP/GEV TO
KROA...WITH MAINLY SUSTAINED 10-20KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT THE
TERMINALS.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING COLDER
AIR AND SOME DEGREE OF UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. DO EXPECT THE INVERSION TO TRAP SOME OF THIS INTO THE
LOWER LEVELS RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VA
SITES AND PERHAPS OUT TO KBCB GIVEN SUCH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT VFR ELSEWHERE BUT STILL QUITE
WINDY MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 KTS POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES
ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SUBSEQUENT WAVES SLIDE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD ALSO
PROLONG THE UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS AT KBLF/KLWB INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR WINS OUT. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BY LATER SATURDAY
AND BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
617 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EST THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING INTO CENTRAL TN/KY SHOULD ZIP EAST...CROSSING
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE JETTING TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AXIS OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOKS TO APPROACH
THE FAR WESTERN CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH BEST LIFT/DEEPER
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FAR NW AND POINTS NORTH EARLY ON.
APPEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND WILL BE WEAKER GIVEN LESS
UPPER SUPPORT SO TRIMMED BACK POPS A LITTLE WITH BEST CHANCES
ESPCLY NORTH BETWEEN 10-14Z PER LATEST HRRR WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.
COULD ALSO BE A BROKEN BAND OF SHRA ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT LATER
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO KEPT A SMALL SWATH OF LOW POPS THROUGH
ABOUT NOON FOR NOW. THUNDER POTENTIAL GIVEN STABILITY ALSO QUITE
SMALL BUT MAINTAINED A MENTION GIVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES TO
THE NORTHWEST.
ONCE THE BOUNDARY CROSSES...A QUICK SHOT OF SUBSIDENCE DRYING IN ORDER
AIDED BY A PASSING 3-5H SPEED MAX TO THE NORTHWEST AND NVA. THIS WILL
BE THE PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR A 3-5 HOUR SURGE IN SURFACE WINDS AS
DRYING PUNCHES IN WHILE THE 85H JET VEERS WESTERLY AND INCREASES TO 40-
45 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH COLD
ADVECTION...GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER HIGH INVERSION WITH MAX DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM ONLY TOUCHING THE RIDGES ABOVE 3K FEET FOR THE MOST PART.
LATEST LOCAL MOS SCHEME ALSO NOT PRODUCING MUCH ADVISORY CRITERIA SINCE
PARAMETERS A LITTLE OUT OF SYNC...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON TIMING AND DEEP
MIXING WOULD SUGGEST PERHAPS ENOUGH THREAT PER PAST EVENTS TO INCLUDE A
WIND ADVISORY HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM MIDDAY ON. OTRW LAGGING COLD
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPE MIXING
LIKELY TO AGAIN PUSH HIGHS TO AT OR ABOVE MOS. COULD EVEN SEE SPOTS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BREAK 70 SO BOOSTED HIGHS A GOOD CATEGORY OR
TWO WITH SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PER LATEST EC MOS.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF
THE 85H BOUNDARY...REPRESENTING THE ONSET OF THE BETTER COLD
ADVECTION. THIS ALONG WITH A LOWERING INVERSION...PROGGED 50 KTS
AT 85H...AND A POSSIBLE BREAKING WAVE SCENARIO WITHIN MORE CROSS
BARRIER FLOW SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS ESPCLY
LATE. COULD EVEN SEE HIGHER WINDS GO INTO THE FOOTHILLS WITH
VALUES NEAR WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
THE VA HIGHLANDS. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EARLIER WIND
ADVISORY HEADLINE INTO TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONS NEEDED
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE TODAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW SOME RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
WESTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR MUCH MORE THAN
SOME SPOTTY PRECIP. THUS LEAVING OUT POPS.
ELSEWHERE...SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR ESPCLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT
STILL NOT ALL THAT COLD GIVEN SLOWNESS OF THE COLD AIR TO CROSS THE
BLUE RIDGE AND ONGOING MIXING ALONG WITH WESTERN CLOUDS. THEREFORE
RUNNING CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY 40S EXCEPT A
FEW 30S FAR WEST WHERE MORE EMBEDDED WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...
WILL START FRIDAY MORNING OFF WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE RIDGETOPS...AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST SOON AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
WINDSPEEDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. CONSIDERING THIS...EXPECT WE WILL
MAINTAIN GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY TO 50 MPH ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. THE
STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL HELP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
PIEDMONT WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOW 60S. THAT
STATED...GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER.
DURING FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...THIS ONE ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND
THEREFORE COLDER. LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER
AIR WILL EXPOSE MORE OF THE TERRAIN TO STRONG WINDS AS COMPARED TO
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE THE STRONGEST WINDS
OF THE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...WHERE THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS CAN EXPECT 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS...WHILE THE RIDGETOPS
WILL REACH 50 TO 55 MPH...POSSIBLY 60 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS. THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS DAWN
ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
GIVEN ONLY THE BRIEF LULL BETWEEN THE SURGES OF STRONG WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...FELT IT WAS MORE PRACTICAL TO
LEAVE THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE STRAIGHT THROUGH TO SATURDAY
MORNING. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY...BUT NOT QUITE REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY...PASSING NEARLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SETTLING
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL BRING
WITH IT DRY WEATHER UNDER NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING FOR NEARLY OUR ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMUP AS
WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MONDAY...MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER BUT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE ON TAP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET PHASES OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND A
DEEP TROF DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST...CULMINATING IN A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL SET US UP IN PROLONGED DEEP MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DRIFTS TO OUR EAST AND GIVES US
MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE LOW LEVELS.
THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING
MAINLY BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE BEING INDICATED BY GUIDANCE TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AS ALWAYS...DETAILS IN TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF FEATURES IS
SKETCHY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS POTENTIAL HYDRO EVENT CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM EST THURSDAY...
BASED ON LATEST MODELS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
MENTION A WHILE LONGER AT MOST SITES UNTIL THINGS MIX OUT ALLOWING
STRONGER GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE...MAINLY AFTER 14Z/9AM. EXPECT
KBLF TO KEEP PERIODIC GUSTS ONGOING SO LEFT OUT THERE AS WELL AS
KDAN WHERE EAST OF THE BEST JET ALOFT EARLY ON. OTHERWISE SHOWERS
REMAIN LIMITED TO MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KBLF-KLWB ATTM BUT
EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING IN EITHER A VCSH OR PREVAILING MAINLY VFR
SHOWER MENTION AT BOTH THE SOUTHEAST WEST VA LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS
AS FAR EAST AS KBCB THIS MORNING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALSO
POSSIBLE BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SWINGS EAST BY MIDDAY. A BAND OF
CLOUDS MAY ALSO SWING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPCLY NORTHERN SECTIONS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THINKING LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE WITH
CIGS MOSTLY VFR. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR
AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AS A PUNCH OF DRY
AIR WORKS EAST.
OTHER BIG ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE THE GUSTY WEST WINDS AT
TIMES BOTH ALONG AND ESPCLY JUST BEHIND THE PASSING BOUNDARY. SOME
GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER RIDGES LIKE HSP/GEV TO
KROA...WITH MAINLY SUSTAINED 10-20KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT THE
TERMINALS.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING COLDER
AIR AND SOME DEGREE OF UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. DO EXPECT THE INVERSION TO TRAP SOME OF THIS INTO THE
LOWER LEVELS RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VA
SITES AND PERHAPS OUT TO KBCB GIVEN SUCH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT VFR ELSEWHERE BUT STILL QUITE
WINDY MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 KTS POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES
ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SUBSEQUENT WAVES SLIDE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD ALSO
PROLONG THE UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS AT KBLF/KLWB INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR WINS OUT. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BY LATER SATURDAY
AND BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-
002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
350 AM PST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND WET FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY WET AND
WINDY WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RIVER
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A STRONG WESTERLY JET STREAM IS POISED TO SEND A
DRENCHING RAIN ACROSS W WA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME JUST OFFSHORE AT 11Z/3 AM.
RAIN SHOULD REACH THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING THEN BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LATER THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH REPORTED THIS
PLUME HAS TAPPED INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE W PACIFIC AND
THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN
THE PLUME.
A STRONG WARM FRONT EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL REACH THE
COAST THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS W WA WILL TIGHTEN
TODAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. RECENT MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE SHOWN
SPOTTY WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOW END HIGH WIND WARNING RANGE OVER THE N
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A HIGH WIND WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE N INTERIOR FOR S WINDS 20-40 MPH. THE MOST
RECENT HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS PEAK GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 55 MPH.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG THE COASTLINES AND OVER THE
ISLANDS. ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF W WA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW END WIND ADVISORY RANGE...OR 20-35 MPH GUSTS 45 MPH. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BUT WILL
STILL TOUCH THE LOW END ADVISORY RANGE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 2500 FEET OVER THE MT BAKER AREA AND
3000 FEET AROUND MT RAINIER. PRECIP RATES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
THOSE HIGHER ROADS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BE ABOVE 5000 FEET BY EARLY EVENING. FOR THE LOWER CENTRAL
CASCADE PASSES THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TOO RAPIDLY TO GET MUCH SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.
THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE THE COPIOUS RAIN THAT WILL FALL THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MINOR MODEL VARIATION
ON TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST INDICATES 8-10 INCHES WITH OVER THE OLYMPICS WITH BULLSEYES
OF 14-15 INCHES FOR THE 48 HOUR PERIOD 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. THIS IS STILL USING A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS THAT
IS TILTED TOWARDS THE MODELS WITH HIGHER QPF. THE CASCADES ALSO HAS
8-10 INCHES IN GENERAL...WITH BULLSEYES OF 11-12 INCHES. THE RECENT
TREND CONTINUES TO PUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE N CASCADES FROM
SNOHOMISH COUNTY NORTHWARD. WITH THIS MUCH RAIN...FLOODING OF MAIN
STEM RIVERS IS LIKELY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH POSSIBLE
FLOODING ON OLYMPIC RIVERS FRIDAY MORNING...AND ON N CASCADE RIVERS
LATER ON FRIDAY.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH THE MOISTURE
PLUME TO THE SE ON SATURDAY...USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS. HOWEVER ANOTHER RECENT CHANGE IN THE MODELS IS TO SLOW THE SE
SHIFT OF THE PLUME...THUS EXTEND THE RAIN A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SATURDAY. KAM
.LONG TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS20 SHOWS AT LEAST TWO UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH...WHICH
SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE AREA.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SUGGEST AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT NOW DIFFER ON HOW THE PATTERN WILL UNFOLD. THE ECMWF
STILL SHOWS ANOTHER WESTERLY JET STREAM AND MOISTURE PLUME REACHING
THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY...BUT THIS ONE HAS A COOLER AIR MASS AND IS
SHORTER IN DURATION. THE GFS HAD A SIMILAR SOLUTION 24 HOURS
AGO...BUT NOW HAS A MORE TYPICAL WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. KAM
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE FORECAST HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE OLYMPICS...AND OVER THE CASCADES TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY REMAINS ON TRACK. FOR BOTH THE OLYMPICS AND
CASCADES...GENERALLY 8-10 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE 48
HOUR PERIOD FROM 18Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. THERE WERE
BULLEYES OF 14-15 INCHES OVER THE OLYMPICS AND 11-12 INCHES OVER THE
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE RAPIDLY TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY REACHING RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET TONIGHT.
THIS IS ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING ON MANY AREA RIVERS. THIS
INCLUDES ANY RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE CASCADES FROM THE NOOKSACK IN
THE NORTH TO THE COWLITZ IN THE SOUTH...AS WELL AS ANY OLYMPIC
PENINSULA RIVERS. EVEN THE RIVERS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUCH AS
THE CHEHALIS AND ITS TRIBUTARIES COULD FLOOD.
RIVER FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SOME RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE
OLYMPICS BY FRIDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAIN BEGINS OVER THE CASCADES
TONIGHT WITH FLOODING ON CASCADE RIVERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. CURRENT
RIVER MODELS SHOW FLOODING ON ALL RIVERS FROM THE NOOKSACK SOUTH TO
THE SNOQUALMIE. SOUTH OF THERE RIVERS GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE BUT
GENERALLY DO NOT RISE OVER FLOOD STAGE. THE MODEL ALSO SHOWS SOME
RIVERS ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA ARE LIKELY TO REACH FLOOD
STAGE...INCLUDING THE ELWHA AND THE SKOKOMISH. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES THAT HAVE MAIN STEM RIVERS. BURKE/KAM
&&
.AVIATION...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AIR MASS
STABLE AND BECOMING MOIST ALL LEVELS TODAY.
KSEA...MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS A FRONT REACHES THE AREA BUT CEILINGS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE DAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY
TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WIND 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 22
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 32 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER
&&
.MARINE...STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH GALES FORECAST FOR THE WATERS. WEST SWELL 20-23 FEET
WILL REACH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...THEN SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON MONDAY. SCHNEIDER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT MOST WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES.
HIGH WIND WARNING NORTH INTERIOR
WIND ADVISORY COAST AND REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CENTRAL COAST.
PZ...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS EXCEPT CENTRAL STRAIT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
848 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
WE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR BORDEAUX
FROM 09Z TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR FROM CHEYENNE TO WHEATLAND. THE 06Z NAM RUN
STILL SHOWS H8-H75 FLOW AROUND 50 KTS...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HINTING AT A STRONG MOUNTAINTOP INVERSION WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO WINDS. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO SHOWS UP TO 45 KT WINDS
IN WESTERN PLATTE COUNTY AT 10Z...BEFORE THE GRADIENT WILL BE AT
ITS PEAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS AM. NUMEROUS HIGHWAY OBS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN RAWLINS AND CHEYENNE...EVEN THOUGH LOW-LEVEL CAG TO
CPR HEIGHT GRADIENTS FELL BELOW 40 METERS AROUND 09Z. VISIBILITY HAS
IMPROVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IS
NO LONGER BEING MET. HOWEVER...THESE STRONG WINDS ARE COMBINING WITH
AREAS OF BLACK ICE TO CREATE DANGEROUS TRAVEL. WITH SECTIONS OF I-80
STILL CLOSED TO LIGHTWEIGHT/HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES...OPTED TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 16Z AS THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING TRAFFIC AND SUNLIGHT
BEGINS TO WARM ROAD SURFACES. WINDS SHOULD ALSO COME DOWN BY THEN AS
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H7 FLOW FINALLY WEAKENING BELOW 40 KTS.
NO OTHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE CWA. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH LLVL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH WINDS ARE DEFINITELY A CONCERN
BETWEEN 09Z-15Z FRI...MAINLY FOR BORDEAUX. THE NAM 850 MILLIBAR CAG-
CPR GRADIENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE BELOW 50 METERS. HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM ADVECTION HELPING TO ESTABLISH A STRONG
MOUNTAINTOP INVERSION OVER THE GAP. 45-50 KTS OF NEAR-SFC FLOW COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HIGH WIND WARNING IF TRAPPING OCCURS. OPTED
NOT TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH ATTM...BUT A FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER BORDEAUX IS CONTRIBUTING
TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WITH FAIRLY LIGHT...WARM WESTERLY WINDS. WIDESPREAD 50
DEGREE READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE EVENT FREE IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT WITH
A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS AND TYPICAL BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO GO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WORKS
EAST OFF THE WEST COAST. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS ACROSS THE
SOUTH END OF THIS TROUGH MONDAY HELPING TO BRING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT DEPICTING
THIS STRONG FRONT (WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S BEHIND
IT ON MONDAY) MOVING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. WITH
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH FAIRLY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WE EXPECT TO SEE
SNOW MOVING IN ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...SPREADING EAST ONTO THE
PLAINS AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER JET...AND WHERE THE
THE SURFACE TO MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO DEEPEN...RIGHT
NOW THIS DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR SNOW SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA. IF
THE MODELS ARE RIGHT...THE HIGHER TOTALS (6+ INCHES) LOOK TO SET
UP TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST LATER ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS CLOSE OFF
THIS SYSTEM AS A DEEP NEGATIVE TILT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH A
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INDICATED OVER WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH LATE WEEK. THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED
ENSEMBLE BLEND FORECAST OF LOW TO MIDRANGE POPS FOR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEST AND LOWER POP RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX EAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. DAILY TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LIGHTER WINDS TODAY THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. OVERALL
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS AT RAWLINS AND LARAMIE 18G28KT THIS MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS
AT REMAINING AIRPORTS WILL PICK UP A BIT 15G25KT MID TO LATE
MORNING...BUT MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE WERE SEEING YESTERDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S/60S ARE LIKELY ON SAT/SUN. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL TO 15 PERCENT...CREATING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WYZ106.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
647 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
WE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR BORDEAUX
FROM 09Z TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR FROM CHEYENNE TO WHEATLAND. THE 06Z NAM RUN
STILL SHOWS H8-H75 FLOW AROUND 50 KTS...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HINTING AT A STRONG MOUNTAINTOP INVERSION WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO WINDS. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO SHOWS UP TO 45 KT WINDS
IN WESTERN PLATTE COUNTY AT 10Z...BEFORE THE GRADIENT WILL BE AT
ITS PEAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS AM. NUMEROUS HIGHWAY OBS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN RAWLINS AND CHEYENNE...EVEN THOUGH LOW-LEVEL CAG TO
CPR HEIGHT GRADIENTS FELL BELOW 40 METERS AROUND 09Z. VISIBILITY HAS
IMPROVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IS
NO LONGER BEING MET. HOWEVER...THESE STRONG WINDS ARE COMBINING WITH
AREAS OF BLACK ICE TO CREATE DANGEROUS TRAVEL. WITH SECTIONS OF I-80
STILL CLOSED TO LIGHTWEIGHT/HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES...OPTED TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 16Z AS THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING TRAFFIC AND SUNLIGHT
BEGINS TO WARM ROAD SURFACES. WINDS SHOULD ALSO COME DOWN BY THEN AS
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H7 FLOW FINALLY WEAKENING BELOW 40 KTS.
NO OTHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE CWA. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH LLVL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH WINDS ARE DEFINITELY A CONCERN
BETWEEN 09Z-15Z FRI...MAINLY FOR BORDEAUX. THE NAM 850 MILLIBAR CAG-
CPR GRADIENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE BELOW 50 METERS. HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM ADVECTION HELPING TO ESTABLISH A STRONG
MOUNTAINTOP INVERSION OVER THE GAP. 45-50 KTS OF NEAR-SFC FLOW COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HIGH WIND WARNING IF TRAPPING OCCURS. OPTED
NOT TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH ATTM...BUT A FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER BORDEAUX IS CONTRIBUTING
TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WITH FAIRLY LIGHT...WARM WESTERLY WINDS. WIDESPREAD 50
DEGREE READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE EVENT FREE IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT WITH
A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS AND TYPICAL BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO GO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WORKS
EAST OFF THE WEST COAST. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS ACROSS THE
SOUTH END OF THIS TROUGH MONDAY HELPING TO BRING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT DEPICTING
THIS STRONG FRONT (WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S BEHIND
IT ON MONDAY) MOVING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. WITH
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH FAIRLY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WE EXPECT TO SEE
SNOW MOVING IN ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...SPREADING EAST ONTO THE
PLAINS AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER JET...AND WHERE THE
THE SURFACE TO MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO DEEPEN...RIGHT
NOW THIS DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR SNOW SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA. IF
THE MODELS ARE RIGHT...THE HIGHER TOTALS (6+ INCHES) LOOK TO SET
UP TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST LATER ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS CLOSE OFF
THIS SYSTEM AS A DEEP NEGATIVE TILT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH A
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INDICATED OVER WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH LATE WEEK. THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED
ENSEMBLE BLEND FORECAST OF LOW TO MIDRANGE POPS FOR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEST AND LOWER POP RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX EAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. DAILY TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LIGHTER WINDS TODAY THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. OVERALL
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS AT RAWLINS AND LARAMIE 18G28KT THIS MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS
AT REMAINING AIRPORTS WILL PICK UP A BIT 15G25KT MID TO LATE
MORNING...BUT MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE WERE SEEING YESTERDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S/60S ARE LIKELY ON SAT/SUN. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL TO 15 PERCENT...CREATING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ110-
115>117.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WYZ106.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
350 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS DOWN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION
SATURDAY AND REMAINS INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS CLEARS MONTAUK BY 330 PM. THAT LEAVES SOME
DRIZZLE (NON-MEASURABLE/NO POP) UNTIL THE COLD FRONT GETS HERE.
THERE ARE SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL PA NORTH TO
KROC. LATEST HRRR (18Z) SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO TRACK ALONG
WITH THE FRONT PASSING ACROSS NORTH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
FORM 01-04Z. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF AND PASS QUICKLY.
WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM THE WSW.
TEMPS DROP OFF IN TO THE 40S. USED THE WARMER NAM MOS DUE TO THE
LARGE AMOUNT OF MIXING EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN STORY IS THE W WINDS THAT GUSTS INTO THE 30S MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY EVENING WITH FREEZING LEVELS DOWN
TO 1500` MSL. THUS...A FEW FLAKES DO NOT SEEM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE INTERIOR HILLS FROM SOME STRATOCU, BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS IN THE MID 50S ON FRIDAY FALL INTO THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT
(EXCEPT A FEW PARTS OF NYC).
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. THE GFS AND NAM WERE
BEST WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS AND TIMING. FOR SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE MIXING WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT
FROM 850 MB. THE COOLER AIR DOES NOT LINGER AS WARM ADVECTION SETS
UP FOR SUNDAY...AND THE AIRMASS ALSO MODIFIES.
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
UNCERTAINTIES BEGIN TO BE MANIFEST IN THE GUIDANCE WITH HOW QUICKLY
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE USED THE WPC
GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY TONIGHT. A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS ARE
MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...BUT THESE
SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING...WITH IFR AT KHPN AND
KGON...BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
S-SE WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING. A LOW LEVEL JET OF
AROUND 40 KT AT 2KFT COMES IN TONIGHT AS WELL.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY OCCUR 1-2
HOURS EARLIER.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY OCCUR 1-2
HOURS EARLIER.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY OCCUR 1-2
HOURS EARLIER.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY OCCUR 1-2
HOURS EARLIER.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY OCCUR 1-2
HOURS EARLIER.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY OCCUR 1-2
HOURS EARLIER.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTN...VFR. W WINDS G25-35KT.
.SAT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT...DIMINISHING LATE EVENING.
.SUN-TUE...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A WESTERLY GALE.
WITH WILL VEER FROM SOUTH TO WSW WITH THE FROPA. GUSTS OF 30-35
KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN STRONG FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALONG WITH CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
MIXING OF STRONGER WIND ALOFT TO MIX TO THE WATER. GALE FORCE GUSTS
WILL REMAIN ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS INTO SATURDAY. COLD ADVECTION
AND WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAKENING DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
GUSTS MAY FALL BELOW GALE FORCE ON THE LONG ISLAND SOUND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL EXTEND THE GALE WARNING ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ON ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE OCEAN SATURDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
GUSTS COULD REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF MORICHES INLET.
LATER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
FINALLY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL FALL BELOW 5 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DO NOT EXPECT BLOW OUT TIDES TOMORROW OR SATURDAY...BUT TIDES
WILL BE ABOUT A FOOT LOWER THAN ASTRONOMICAL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...FEB/JM
MARINE...MET/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...MET/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1122 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...THEN
TRACKS DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FOR THE START OF THE
NEW WEEK...THEN DEPARTS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ENE AT ALMOST 100 MPH!
BACK END OF THIS PCPN CLEARS THE NY METRO BY NOON AND EASTERN LI
AROUND 1 PM. HRRR CONTINUES TO LAG BEHIND IN TIMING...EXPECT JUST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE ACTIVITY. HAVE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS SCENARIO...100 GOING TO 40.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE INCREASING W WINDS BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...WITH GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH TONIGHT AND 25-40 MPH FRIDAY.
THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND...AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. FOR THESE WINDS...LEANED
TOWARDS STRONGER GFS 950 HPA WINDS...AS WHILE TYPICALLY OVER
DONE...IT DOES TEND TO FARE BETTER IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY WIDESPREAD AREAS
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 TO MAYBE EVEN 50 MPH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT.
ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER AROUND EARLY THIS EVENING.
FOR NOW GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY...AS A WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM 700-500 HPA RIDGE TRANSITS THE AREA.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH READINGS AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL EXPECTED. A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 850-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...AND THEN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE DOMINATED
BY HIGH PRES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO
DEPART AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL STRONG H5 SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE H5 LOW AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STAY NORTH OF THE REGION...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES...OR EVEN SOME FLURRIES...FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR NW INTERIOR ZONES. A GUSTY NW FLOW OF 15-20 MPH
WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS WILL USHER UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AS HIGHS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE WIND CHILL WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S DURING THE DAY.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR
SUNDAY. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BEFORE SLOWLY DEPARTING
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH...TEMPS WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 60.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BUMP UP POPS TO CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES TONIGHT. SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...LOCALLY BELOW
IFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IFR COULD
VERY WELL EXTEND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS.
IMPROVEMENT OCCURS TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SE WINDS NEAR 10 KT WILL START GUSTING TO 15-20 KT INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 25 KT FOR THIS EVENING.
A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40 KT AT 2KFT COMES IN TONIGHT AS WELL.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR 17-19Z. LOWER CHANCES OF
IFR BEFORE 17Z AS WELL AS BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR 17-19Z. LOWER CHANCES OF
IFR BEFORE 17Z AS WELL AS BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR 17-19Z. LOWER CHANCES OF
IFR BEFORE 17Z AS WELL AS BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR 17-19Z. LOWER CHANCES OF
IFR BEFORE 17Z AS WELL AS BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A CHANCE OF LIFR 17-22Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR BEFORE 18Z. A CHANCE OF
IFR 18-00Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...VFR. W WINDS G25-35KT.
.SAT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT...DIMINISHING LATE EVENING.
.SUNDAY-MON...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE FAR S PARTS OF THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES REMAIN AROUND 5 FT...SO HAVE CONTINUED EXISTING SCA IN
THOSE ZONES FOR THIS MORNING.
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO SCA LEVELS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS...NY HARBOR AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND ON ALL NON- OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT. THUS HAVE
STARTED THE SCA FOR NY HARBOR AND THE S SHORE BAYS ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE CONTINUING TO START THE REMAINDER OF THE NON-
OCEAN WATERS SCA AT 23Z.
STILL APPEARS THAT SHOULD GET SUFFICIENT MIXING OVER THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT TO MIX DOWN 35-40 KT FLOW AT 950
HPA...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
LEANED TOWARDS STRONGER 950 HPA WINDS IN GFS FOR FRIDAY...AS THEY
TEND TO PREFORM A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM IN THESE TYPES OF
SET UPS (NAM TENDS TO BE UNDER DONE)...SO HAVE EXPANDED THE GALE
WARNING TO COVER ALL MARINE ZONES FOR FRIDAY. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO AT LEAST 6-11 FT BY FRIDAY
MORNING...HIGHEST EAST OF MORICHES INLET.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTY NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH GALES ON AT LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED ON THE BAYS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.
HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH TODAY...SO NO HYDRO ISSUES.
NO SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AT THIS TIME...JUST TOUCHING MINOR.
DO NOT EXPECT BLOW OUT TIDES TOMORROW OR SATURDAY...BUT TIDES WILL
BE ABOUT A FOOT LOWER THAN ASTRONOMICAL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ071-073-176-
177.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ338-345.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1151 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
16z/10am surface analysis shows 985mb low over Lake Michigan with
cold front arcing southeastward through the Ohio River Valley to
the Gulf Coast. Tight pressure gradient on the back side of the
low continues to produce very strong winds across central Illinois
this morning, with latest obs indicating gusts generally in the
30 to 40mph range. Clouds blanket the entire area: however, skies
have cleared along/southwest of a Cedar Rapids, Iowa to St. Louis,
Missouri line. HRRR is handling the cloud cover quite well, so
will follow its solution closely for the clearing trend today.
Based on satellite loops and HRRR, it appears skies will become
mostly sunny along/southwest of a Macomb to Springfield line by
midday, then will clear further east across much of the KILX CWA
as the afternoon progresses. Areas from Bloomington to Paris
northeastward will likely remain mostly cloudy through the entire
day. As skies clear, mixing from aloft will likely keep the wind
gusts going and perhaps even increase them a bit. Have therefore
decided to keep the Wind Advisory going through 6pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
Strong cold front passed through central and southeast Illinois
overnight, with strong westerly winds occurring in its wake. The
winds would be stronger, but a strong subsidence inversion has
developed and limited the mixing depth to no more than 3K feet
across the forecast area. That being said, the pressure gradient
that persists and wind speeds beneath the inversion support gusts of
30-40 mph through the day, with the weaker gusts occurring south of
I-70. Plan to keep current Wind Advisory north of I-70 going through
6 pm this evening.
The post cold frontal clear slot has pushed east of I-57 and will be
east of the forecast area shortly. Several hours of wrap around low
cloudiness are expected to start the day, with only slow clearing
from west to east this afternoon. The clouds and low-level cold
advection will limit temperature rises today. While most locations
should make it into the lower 50s for highs, a few upper 40s are
certainly possible, especially where the clouds hang on the longest
in east-central Illinois.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
On the heels of the exiting trof, high pressure builds into the
Midwest for a couple days. Tonight will be cooler behind the passage
of the front, but the winds will stay up and moderate the diurnal
drop somewhat. As the sfc ridge axis drifts over the region, the
winds continue to weaken. By Friday night, the winds are very light
and clear skies set up a good radiational cooling night and the
temps bottom out below the freezing mark for Sat morning. However,
the winds pick up out of the south on the back side of the ridge and
the warm up kicks in again, with Saturday warming to the mid to
upper 50s. Warming temps continue through the end of the weekend as
a wave digs in over the western half of the CONUS and starts to dig
out a trof. Same wave ripples along on Sunday to bring precip
chances to Central Illinois by Sunday night. Some variation in the
models with the timing of the wave at this point, but Sunday is just
a start. Next wave deepens the trof over the southwest and develops
a much deeper low that cuts off over the Southern Plains, leaving
the Midwest in a stream of llvl waa and moisture advection. The
influx of warmer temps and higher RH will keep a rather constant
rain threat over the area through midweek. Expect to see some fine
tuning and shifts in the forecast overall in that time frame...but
for now Monday through Wednesday remain wet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
MVFR ceilings associated with deep low pressure over the Great
Lakes are rapidly clearing from the W/SW late this morning. 1730z
visible satellite imagery shows the back edge of the clouds along
a KGBG to KSPI line, which is slightly faster than the HRRR
forecast. Given satellite trends, have adjusted clearing times at
the terminals by a couple of hours, with mostly clear skies at
both KPIA and KSPI at 18z...then further northeast to KBMI and
KCMI by 20z. After that, clear skies are anticipated tonight
through Friday morning. Westerly winds will continue to gust to
between 30 and 35kt for the next couple of hours. Winds will slowly
subside this evening: however, pressure gradient will remain
tight enough to support gusts of 15 to 20kt through the overnight
hours. An approaching surface trough will help increase wind gusts
back into the 25 to 30kt range on Friday.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1012 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
16z/10am surface analysis shows 985mb low over Lake Michigan with
cold front arcing southeastward through the Ohio River Valley to
the Gulf Coast. Tight pressure gradient on the back side of the
low continues to produce very strong winds across central Illinois
this morning, with latest obs indicating gusts generally in the
30 to 40mph range. Clouds blanket the entire area: however, skies
have cleared along/southwest of a Cedar Rapids, Iowa to St. Louis,
Missouri line. HRRR is handling the cloud cover quite well, so
will follow its solution closely for the clearing trend today.
Based on satellite loops and HRRR, it appears skies will become
mostly sunny along/southwest of a Macomb to Springfield line by
midday, then will clear further east across much of the KILX CWA
as the afternoon progresses. Areas from Bloomington to Paris
northeastward will likely remain mostly cloudy through the entire
day. As skies clear, mixing from aloft will likely keep the wind
gusts going and perhaps even increase them a bit. Have therefore
decided to keep the Wind Advisory going through 6pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
Strong cold front passed through central and southeast Illinois
overnight, with strong westerly winds occurring in its wake. The
winds would be stronger, but a strong subsidence inversion has
developed and limited the mixing depth to no more than 3K feet
across the forecast area. That being said, the pressure gradient
that persists and wind speeds beneath the inversion support gusts of
30-40 mph through the day, with the weaker gusts occurring south of
I-70. Plan to keep current Wind Advisory north of I-70 going through
6 pm this evening.
The post cold frontal clear slot has pushed east of I-57 and will be
east of the forecast area shortly. Several hours of wrap around low
cloudiness are expected to start the day, with only slow clearing
from west to east this afternoon. The clouds and low-level cold
advection will limit temperature rises today. While most locations
should make it into the lower 50s for highs, a few upper 40s are
certainly possible, especially where the clouds hang on the longest
in east-central Illinois.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
On the heels of the exiting trof, high pressure builds into the
Midwest for a couple days. Tonight will be cooler behind the passage
of the front, but the winds will stay up and moderate the diurnal
drop somewhat. As the sfc ridge axis drifts over the region, the
winds continue to weaken. By Friday night, the winds are very light
and clear skies set up a good radiational cooling night and the
temps bottom out below the freezing mark for Sat morning. However,
the winds pick up out of the south on the back side of the ridge and
the warm up kicks in again, with Saturday warming to the mid to
upper 50s. Warming temps continue through the end of the weekend as
a wave digs in over the western half of the CONUS and starts to dig
out a trof. Same wave ripples along on Sunday to bring precip
chances to Central Illinois by Sunday night. Some variation in the
models with the timing of the wave at this point, but Sunday is just
a start. Next wave deepens the trof over the southwest and develops
a much deeper low that cuts off over the Southern Plains, leaving
the Midwest in a stream of llvl waa and moisture advection. The
influx of warmer temps and higher RH will keep a rather constant
rain threat over the area through midweek. Expect to see some fine
tuning and shifts in the forecast overall in that time frame...but
for now Monday through Wednesday remain wet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
Gusty westerly winds will persist across the central Illinois
terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time...although a gradual
decrease in wind speeds is anticipated later today and especially
tonight. MVFR CIGS in place to start the day will scatter out
from southwest to northeast during the midday to mid afternoon
hours. Once the low clouds scatter out, minimal cloud cover and
VFR conditions are anticipated for the duration of the forecast
period.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1255 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
WINDY AND SEASONABLY COLDER WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND
POSSIBLY THE LAUREL RIDGES. AFTER A BRISK CHILL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... HAVE TWEAKED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRONOUNCED CLEARING TREND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS
CLEARING WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SHOWERS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST... AND THESE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
PA THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.
UPDATED AT 11 AM... MAIN BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING EAST OF CENTRAL PA
LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF ALL OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING IS WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST PA LATE
THIS MORNING AND SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
EARLY AM WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER LOW LIFTING NE ACROSS LK
MICHIGAN. ASSOC LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS IS PUSHING
INTO WESTERN PA AT 10Z...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS. A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED UPSTREAM...SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF
TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PA AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THRU
LATER THIS MORNING.
BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS AND LATEST HRRR...HAVE RAMPED POPS
UPWARD TO BTWN 80-100 PCT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA. LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION AND NR TERM MDL DATA INDICATES MOST PLACES WILL SEE
A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF LL JET...BEGINNING
ARND 11Z ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...AND BEGINNING ARND 13-14Z
OVER THOSE AREAS EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.
TEMPS SHOULD SHOOT UP ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY THIS AFTN...AS
SHOWERS EXIT EASTERN PA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MILD AIR INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THRU CENTRAL PA BTWN 18Z-22Z...ACCOMPANIED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER
IN SPOTS. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTN /ESP WESTERN PA/ AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT BEGIN
MIXING TO GROUND LEVEL. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT
SUPPORT GUSTS NEAR 40KTS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE A
WIND ADV IS NOW IN EFFECT.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THRU TONIGHT...AS
DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF PA THRU THE E GRT LKS.
WHERE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LYR OF MOISTURE ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY
MTNS...THERE SHOULD BE PERSISTENT STRATOCU/SCT -SHRA TONIGHT.
FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD A DRY NIGHT WITH
A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
WILL BE WSWLY...FAVORING LAKE ENHANCED PCPN ALIGNED CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORE FROM ERIE CO INTO CHAUTAUQUA CO IN FAR SWRN NY. HOWEVER
BLYR WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW AND BECOME WELL-ALIGNED LATER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION /1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMTS UP TO 3
INCHES/ IN PARTS OF WARREN/MCKEAN AND ELK COUNTY. LIGHTER AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A DUSTING UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE LAUREL RIDGES...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF RT 219.
FRI-SAT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL AVERAGE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
MID-NOVEMBER CLIMO...WITH GUSTY WINDS ADDING AN ADDITIONAL CHILL.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/LOWERING INVERSION HGTS COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL SPELL AND END
TO THE LAKE ENHANCED AND OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OFF THE EAST
COAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER PATTERN BY MID
NOVEMBER STANDARDS.
THE 12/00Z GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION OF ENERGY CROSSING
THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SPLITTING OVER THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED GFS AND CMC TO A LESSER
EXTENT SUGGEST A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE WHILE
THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SRN STREAM WAVE REACHING THE
MID MS VLY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH SUCH A WIDE SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF
THE PCPN PATTERN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH WHICH SHOWS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN POPS INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF PA EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN PA AND
THESE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE BFD AND JST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK WESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE ERIE WILL
BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE BFD TAF SITE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MVFR CLOUD CIGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AT JST/UNV/AOO AND BKN VFR
CIGS FARTHER EAST AT IPT AND MDT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KTS
AND GUSTY WILL SHIFT TO WEST WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 KTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...GUSTY WINDS. EVENING SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST.
SAT...EARLY AM SHSN/REDUCED CIGS POSS AT KBFD/KJST.
SUN/MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010-
011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1115 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE CONTINUED WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ONCE AGAIN WITH MIXING. ONLY EXPECTING MODEST
PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND WITH 925 AND 850 HPA
WINDS REMAINING NEAR 30 AND 40-45 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...EXPECT WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LAT MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL BRING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON TO FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. NAM SHOWS A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY NEAR THE CLOUD LAYER...WHILE THE RUC AND GFS ARE A
LITTLE BIT MORE STABLE. WITH CLOUD DECK ONLY AT 2000 FEET OR
SO...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH EVAPORATION OF ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS.
THEREFORE...HAVE A MENTION OF SPRINKLES NEAR MARSHALL TO WINDOM FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT WILL BE A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
WINDS REMAINING STRONGER ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE...WILL BE WARMER
THERE BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
SEASONALLY PLEASANT WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS QUASI-ZONAL AT THE END OF WEEK...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TO TODAY...HOWEVER DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO IMPROVE A
FEW DEGREES. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN PARTICULAR WILL BE MILD WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE AT AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS WEEKEND UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW SOME MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN TO LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE SWINGING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS POTENTIALLY CLIPS OUR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE IN HOW QUICKLY THIS
TRANSLATES INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE QUICKEST...AND
WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM SHOW SIMILAR TIMING...THE GEM IS MUCH
FURTHER EAST. AS IT STANDS...OUR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW EAST OF I29 ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED HEADING INTO MID WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
CONFIDENCE REALLY STARTS TO DROP WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM AS
LONGER RANGE MODELS DEPICT VERY DIFFERENT TRACKS AND STRENGTHS OF
THIS FEATURE. ALL DO MATERIALIZE A STRONG AND LARGE CUT OFF
LOW...BUT WHETHER IT STALLS...TRACKS NORTHEAST OR MORE DUE EAST IS
TO BE SEEN. WILL LEAVE ALL BLEND POPS AS IS...AND WILL KEEP WATCHING
THE TRENDS OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE LOWER END OF VFR RANGE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE BY SUNSET...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. FREQUENT NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038>040-050-
052>071.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-089-
097-098.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ081-
090.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ081-090.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-002-012-013-
020-021-031-032.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR IAZ003-
014-022.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ003-014-022.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1140 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BKN TO OVC SKIES
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS JUST NOW
PUSHING ACROSS KBRO. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR
KBRO THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
MORNING. VARIABLE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT AREA
TERMINALS WITH PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A LINE OF SHOWERS...
REPRESENTING THE TAIL END OF A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT...IS MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE TEXAS COAST AT 15 TO 20
MPH. SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS ARE ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THIS
PRODUCT GOES OUT...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY
NEAR DAWN OR NOT LONG THEREAFTER. THE HRRR IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS
EXTENDING FARTHER DOWN THE LINE INTO THE MID VALLEY RIGHT AFTER
DAWN...THEN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND CONCENTRATED OVER THE LOWER
VALLEY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. IN THE MEANTIME...PATCHY LIGHT TO MDT FOG HAS
SET UP ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FROPA.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 70 OVER THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO NEAR 80 AT BRO. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST WITH WHAT WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MULITLAYERED CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FADE BY MID AFTERNOON...
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER THE RANCHLANDS TO THE
UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY MORE TO NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN FROM THE 60S OVER THE UPPER VALLEY TO THE MID
70S OVER THE LOWER VALLEY. LOW END RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL NOT PUSH VERY MUCH
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A WEAK S/W TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INLAND SATURDAY THEN WEEKEND SUNDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND SFC FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS WEEKEND WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE SATURDAY THEN MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES. THAT S/W
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW. A MUCH STRONGER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY AND INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WSW DRY AIR AND CAPPING
WHICH WILL DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST BUT
EASTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. LIKE LAST NIGHT, FRONTAL TIMING LOOKS REASONABLE
BUT STRENGTH IS OF QUESTION. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ROUGHLY 6-12 HOURS
BEHIND THE PASSAGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BY DAY
BREAK...BRINGING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND MID MORNING. WILL
HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DAY. THE MAIN PUSH WILL BE
RATHER BRIEF HOWEVER...WITH WINDS DECREASING BACK BELOW 20 KNOTS
LATER IN THE DAY. SEAS WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF TIME TO REACT...
BUILDING TO SIX OR SEVEN FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THERE
MAY BE SOME REINFORCEMENT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OUT OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH SEAS ALSO GETTING ANOTHER CHANCE TO BUILD
WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COASTAL TROUGHING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS ELEVATED AND
WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 7 FEET /POSSIBLY WITH SWELL ADDED IN DUE TO
LONG EASTERLY FETCH/ SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS SUNDAY AND DISSIPATES BY MONDAY
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN WINDS...
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND SIX FEET. THEREFORE...
SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
58/61
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1242 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST THURSDAY...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL BE MAKING MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND DRIES UP. MAIN CONCERNS TO MONITOR TODAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO
EFFECT AT NOON FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAINLY FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT BELIEVE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE PIEDMONT. WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON TEMPS EAST OF THE RIDGE. GUIDANCE AND WARM AIR ALOFT SUPPORTS
READINGS INTO THE 70S BUT CLOUD COVER MAY NECESSITATE A SLIGHT
TRIM SO WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE.
PREVIOUS AFD...
COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING INTO CENTRAL TN/KY SHOULD ZIP EAST...CROSSING
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE JETTING TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AXIS OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOKS TO APPROACH
THE FAR WESTERN CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH BEST LIFT/DEEPER
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FAR NW AND POINTS NORTH EARLY ON.
APPEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND WILL BE WEAKER GIVEN LESS
UPPER SUPPORT SO TRIMMED BACK POPS A LITTLE WITH BEST CHANCES
ESPCLY NORTH BETWEEN 10-14Z PER LATEST HRRR WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.
COULD ALSO BE A BROKEN BAND OF SHRA ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT LATER
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO KEPT A SMALL SWATH OF LOW POPS THROUGH
ABOUT NOON FOR NOW. THUNDER POTENTIAL GIVEN STABILITY ALSO QUITE
SMALL BUT MAINTAINED A MENTION GIVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES TO
THE NORTHWEST.
ONCE THE BOUNDARY CROSSES...A QUICK SHOT OF SUBSIDENCE DRYING IN ORDER
AIDED BY A PASSING 3-5H SPEED MAX TO THE NORTHWEST AND NVA. THIS WILL
BE THE PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR A 3-5 HOUR SURGE IN SURFACE WINDS AS
DRYING PUNCHES IN WHILE THE 85H JET VEERS WESTERLY AND INCREASES TO 40-
45 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH COLD
ADVECTION...GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER HIGH INVERSION WITH MAX DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM ONLY TOUCHING THE RIDGES ABOVE 3K FEET FOR THE MOST PART.
LATEST LOCAL MOS SCHEME ALSO NOT PRODUCING MUCH ADVISORY CRITERIA SINCE
PARAMETERS A LITTLE OUT OF SYNC...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON TIMING AND DEEP
MIXING WOULD SUGGEST PERHAPS ENOUGH THREAT PER PAST EVENTS TO INCLUDE A
WIND ADVISORY HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM MIDDAY ON. OTRW LAGGING COLD
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPE MIXING
LIKELY TO AGAIN PUSH HIGHS TO AT OR ABOVE MOS. COULD EVEN SEE SPOTS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BREAK 70 SO BOOSTED HIGHS A GOOD CATEGORY OR
TWO WITH SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PER LATEST EC MOS.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF
THE 85H BOUNDARY...REPRESENTING THE ONSET OF THE BETTER COLD
ADVECTION. THIS ALONG WITH A LOWERING INVERSION...PROGGED 50 KTS
AT 85H...AND A POSSIBLE BREAKING WAVE SCENARIO WITHIN MORE CROSS
BARRIER FLOW SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS ESPCLY
LATE. COULD EVEN SEE HIGHER WINDS GO INTO THE FOOTHILLS WITH
VALUES NEAR WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
THE VA HIGHLANDS. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EARLIER WIND
ADVISORY HEADLINE INTO TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONS NEEDED
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE TODAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW SOME RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
WESTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR MUCH MORE THAN
SOME SPOTTY PRECIP. THUS LEAVING OUT POPS.
ELSEWHERE...SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR ESPCLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT
STILL NOT ALL THAT COLD GIVEN SLOWNESS OF THE COLD AIR TO CROSS THE
BLUE RIDGE AND ONGOING MIXING ALONG WITH WESTERN CLOUDS. THEREFORE
RUNNING CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY 40S EXCEPT A
FEW 30S FAR WEST WHERE MORE EMBEDDED WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...
WILL START FRIDAY MORNING OFF WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE RIDGETOPS...AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST SOON AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
WINDSPEEDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. CONSIDERING THIS...EXPECT WE WILL
MAINTAIN GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY TO 50 MPH ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. THE
STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL HELP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
PIEDMONT WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOW 60S. THAT
STATED...GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER.
DURING FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...THIS ONE ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND
THEREFORE COLDER. LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER
AIR WILL EXPOSE MORE OF THE TERRAIN TO STRONG WINDS AS COMPARED TO
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE THE STRONGEST WINDS
OF THE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...WHERE THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS CAN EXPECT 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS...WHILE THE RIDGETOPS
WILL REACH 50 TO 55 MPH...POSSIBLY 60 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS. THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS DAWN
ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
GIVEN ONLY THE BRIEF LULL BETWEEN THE SURGES OF STRONG WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...FELT IT WAS MORE PRACTICAL TO
LEAVE THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE STRAIGHT THROUGH TO SATURDAY
MORNING. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY...BUT NOT QUITE REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY...PASSING NEARLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SETTLING
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL BRING
WITH IT DRY WEATHER UNDER NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING FOR NEARLY OUR ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMUP AS
WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MONDAY...MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER BUT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE ON TAP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET PHASES OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND A
DEEP TROF DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST...CULMINATING IN A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL SET US UP IN PROLONGED DEEP MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DRIFTS TO OUR EAST AND GIVES US
MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE LOW LEVELS.
THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING
MAINLY BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE BEING INDICATED BY GUIDANCE TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AS ALWAYS...DETAILS IN TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF FEATURES IS
SKETCHY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS POTENTIAL HYDRO EVENT CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST THURSDAY...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES. THE COLD FRONT USHERING
IN THE STRONG WINDS IS THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION AND KBLF/KLWB/KBCB
ARE ALREADY GUSTING. EXPECT KROA TO START SEEING STRONG GUSTS
WITHIN THE HOUR AND KLYH/KDAN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS COLD AIR SURGES IN OVERNIGHT
AND THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE SO WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY FOR
KROA/KBCB/KBLF. THE GUSTS WILL TAPER A BIT TONIGHT AT KLWB AS
THEIR SOMEWHAT AS DIURNAL COOLING IN SHELTERED LOCATION WILL
INHIBIT GOOD MIXING...AND KLYH/KDAN SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND
LOSE THE GUSTY WINDS. AFTER DAYBREAK DIURNAL MIXING BRINGS THE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS BACK TO ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. GUSTS IN THE 30KT TO 40KT RANGE SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET FROM
THE RIDGE WEST WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES TO THE EAST.
THE SKY SHOULD BE VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THIS WILL GENERATE MVFR
OR LOWER CIGS AT KBCB/KBLF/KLWB LATER TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THESE CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE AND ALL SITES WILL BE VFR
ON FRIDAY.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SUBSEQUENT WAVES SLIDE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAINLY VFR WILL
PREVAIL INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
BY LATER SATURDAY AND BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...MBS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1150 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE INHERITED HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE BORDEAUX AREA OF WESTERN PLATTE COUNTY FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE PROGS
SUGGEST STRONG WINDS AND THE GFS PROGGED SOUNDINGS FOR THAT AREA
SHOW 45 KNOTS OF WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE...INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN A HIGH WIND EVENT AT BORDEAUX LATE TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO GRIDDED FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON TRENDS. BOOSTED SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND
ADJUSTED WINDS ESPECIALLY AT ARLINGTON WHERE PESKY STRONG WINDS
CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 55 MPH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 846 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
WE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR BORDEAUX
FROM 09Z TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR FROM CHEYENNE TO WHEATLAND. THE 06Z NAM RUN
STILL SHOWS H8-H75 FLOW AROUND 50 KTS...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HINTING AT A STRONG MOUNTAINTOP INVERSION WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO WINDS. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO SHOWS UP TO 45 KT WINDS
IN WESTERN PLATTE COUNTY AT 10Z...BEFORE THE GRADIENT WILL BE AT
ITS PEAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS AM. NUMEROUS HIGHWAY OBS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN RAWLINS AND CHEYENNE...EVEN THOUGH LOW-LEVEL CAG TO
CPR HEIGHT GRADIENTS FELL BELOW 40 METERS AROUND 09Z. VISIBILITY HAS
IMPROVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IS
NO LONGER BEING MET. HOWEVER...THESE STRONG WINDS ARE COMBINING WITH
AREAS OF BLACK ICE TO CREATE DANGEROUS TRAVEL. WITH SECTIONS OF I-80
STILL CLOSED TO LIGHTWEIGHT/HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES...OPTED TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 16Z AS THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING TRAFFIC AND SUNLIGHT
BEGINS TO WARM ROAD SURFACES. WINDS SHOULD ALSO COME DOWN BY THEN AS
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H7 FLOW FINALLY WEAKENING BELOW 40 KTS.
NO OTHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE CWA. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH LLVL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH WINDS ARE DEFINITELY A CONCERN
BETWEEN 09Z-15Z FRI...MAINLY FOR BORDEAUX. THE NAM 850 MILLIBAR CAG-
CPR GRADIENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE BELOW 50 METERS. HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM ADVECTION HELPING TO ESTABLISH A STRONG
MOUNTAINTOP INVERSION OVER THE GAP. 45-50 KTS OF NEAR-SFC FLOW COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HIGH WIND WARNING IF TRAPPING OCCURS. OPTED
NOT TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH ATTM...BUT A FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER BORDEAUX IS CONTRIBUTING
TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WITH FAIRLY LIGHT...WARM WESTERLY WINDS. WIDESPREAD 50
DEGREE READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE EVENT FREE IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT WITH
A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS AND TYPICAL BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO GO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WORKS
EAST OFF THE WEST COAST. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS ACROSS THE
SOUTH END OF THIS TROUGH MONDAY HELPING TO BRING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT DEPICTING
THIS STRONG FRONT (WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S BEHIND
IT ON MONDAY) MOVING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. WITH
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH FAIRLY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WE EXPECT TO SEE
SNOW MOVING IN ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...SPREADING EAST ONTO THE
PLAINS AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER JET...AND WHERE THE
THE SURFACE TO MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO DEEPEN...RIGHT
NOW THIS DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR SNOW SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA. IF
THE MODELS ARE RIGHT...THE HIGHER TOTALS (6+ INCHES) LOOK TO SET
UP TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST LATER ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS CLOSE OFF
THIS SYSTEM AS A DEEP NEGATIVE TILT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH A
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INDICATED OVER WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH LATE WEEK. THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED
ENSEMBLE BLEND FORECAST OF LOW TO MIDRANGE POPS FOR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEST AND LOWER POP RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX EAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. DAILY TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 50 KTS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT SOME
STRONG WINDS MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS INTERSTATE 25...SUCH AS
AROUND BORDEAUX. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S/60S ARE LIKELY ON SAT/SUN. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL TO 15 PERCENT...CREATING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ106.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1052 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO GRIDDED FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON TRENDS. BOOSTED SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND
ADJUSTED WINDS ESPECIALLY AT ARLINGTON WHERE PESKY STRONG WINDS
CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 55 MPH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 846 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
WE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR BORDEAUX
FROM 09Z TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR FROM CHEYENNE TO WHEATLAND. THE 06Z NAM RUN
STILL SHOWS H8-H75 FLOW AROUND 50 KTS...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HINTING AT A STRONG MOUNTAINTOP INVERSION WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO WINDS. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO SHOWS UP TO 45 KT WINDS
IN WESTERN PLATTE COUNTY AT 10Z...BEFORE THE GRADIENT WILL BE AT
ITS PEAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS AM. NUMEROUS HIGHWAY OBS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN RAWLINS AND CHEYENNE...EVEN THOUGH LOW-LEVEL CAG TO
CPR HEIGHT GRADIENTS FELL BELOW 40 METERS AROUND 09Z. VISIBILITY HAS
IMPROVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IS
NO LONGER BEING MET. HOWEVER...THESE STRONG WINDS ARE COMBINING WITH
AREAS OF BLACK ICE TO CREATE DANGEROUS TRAVEL. WITH SECTIONS OF I-80
STILL CLOSED TO LIGHTWEIGHT/HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES...OPTED TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 16Z AS THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING TRAFFIC AND SUNLIGHT
BEGINS TO WARM ROAD SURFACES. WINDS SHOULD ALSO COME DOWN BY THEN AS
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H7 FLOW FINALLY WEAKENING BELOW 40 KTS.
NO OTHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE CWA. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH LLVL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH WINDS ARE DEFINITELY A CONCERN
BETWEEN 09Z-15Z FRI...MAINLY FOR BORDEAUX. THE NAM 850 MILLIBAR CAG-
CPR GRADIENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE BELOW 50 METERS. HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM ADVECTION HELPING TO ESTABLISH A STRONG
MOUNTAINTOP INVERSION OVER THE GAP. 45-50 KTS OF NEAR-SFC FLOW COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HIGH WIND WARNING IF TRAPPING OCCURS. OPTED
NOT TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH ATTM...BUT A FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER BORDEAUX IS CONTRIBUTING
TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WITH FAIRLY LIGHT...WARM WESTERLY WINDS. WIDESPREAD 50
DEGREE READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE EVENT FREE IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT WITH
A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS AND TYPICAL BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO GO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WORKS
EAST OFF THE WEST COAST. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS ACROSS THE
SOUTH END OF THIS TROUGH MONDAY HELPING TO BRING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT DEPICTING
THIS STRONG FRONT (WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S BEHIND
IT ON MONDAY) MOVING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. WITH
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH FAIRLY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WE EXPECT TO SEE
SNOW MOVING IN ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...SPREADING EAST ONTO THE
PLAINS AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER JET...AND WHERE THE
THE SURFACE TO MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO DEEPEN...RIGHT
NOW THIS DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR SNOW SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA. IF
THE MODELS ARE RIGHT...THE HIGHER TOTALS (6+ INCHES) LOOK TO SET
UP TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST LATER ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS CLOSE OFF
THIS SYSTEM AS A DEEP NEGATIVE TILT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH A
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INDICATED OVER WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH LATE WEEK. THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED
ENSEMBLE BLEND FORECAST OF LOW TO MIDRANGE POPS FOR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEST AND LOWER POP RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX EAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. DAILY TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 50 KTS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT SOME
STRONG WINDS MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS INTERSTATE 25...SUCH AS
AROUND BORDEAUX. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S/60S ARE LIKELY ON SAT/SUN. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL TO 15 PERCENT...CREATING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WYZ106.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1024 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO GRIDDED FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON TRENDS. BOOSTED SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND
ADJUSTED WINDS ESPECIALLY AT ARLINGTON WHERE PESKY STRONG WINDS
CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 55 MPH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 846 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
WE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR BORDEAUX
FROM 09Z TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR FROM CHEYENNE TO WHEATLAND. THE 06Z NAM RUN
STILL SHOWS H8-H75 FLOW AROUND 50 KTS...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HINTING AT A STRONG MOUNTAINTOP INVERSION WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO WINDS. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO SHOWS UP TO 45 KT WINDS
IN WESTERN PLATTE COUNTY AT 10Z...BEFORE THE GRADIENT WILL BE AT
ITS PEAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS AM. NUMEROUS HIGHWAY OBS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN RAWLINS AND CHEYENNE...EVEN THOUGH LOW-LEVEL CAG TO
CPR HEIGHT GRADIENTS FELL BELOW 40 METERS AROUND 09Z. VISIBILITY HAS
IMPROVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IS
NO LONGER BEING MET. HOWEVER...THESE STRONG WINDS ARE COMBINING WITH
AREAS OF BLACK ICE TO CREATE DANGEROUS TRAVEL. WITH SECTIONS OF I-80
STILL CLOSED TO LIGHTWEIGHT/HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES...OPTED TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 16Z AS THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING TRAFFIC AND SUNLIGHT
BEGINS TO WARM ROAD SURFACES. WINDS SHOULD ALSO COME DOWN BY THEN AS
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H7 FLOW FINALLY WEAKENING BELOW 40 KTS.
NO OTHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE CWA. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH LLVL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH WINDS ARE DEFINITELY A CONCERN
BETWEEN 09Z-15Z FRI...MAINLY FOR BORDEAUX. THE NAM 850 MILLIBAR CAG-
CPR GRADIENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE BELOW 50 METERS. HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM ADVECTION HELPING TO ESTABLISH A STRONG
MOUNTAINTOP INVERSION OVER THE GAP. 45-50 KTS OF NEAR-SFC FLOW COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HIGH WIND WARNING IF TRAPPING OCCURS. OPTED
NOT TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH ATTM...BUT A FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER BORDEAUX IS CONTRIBUTING
TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WITH FAIRLY LIGHT...WARM WESTERLY WINDS. WIDESPREAD 50
DEGREE READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE EVENT FREE IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT WITH
A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS AND TYPICAL BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO GO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WORKS
EAST OFF THE WEST COAST. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS ACROSS THE
SOUTH END OF THIS TROUGH MONDAY HELPING TO BRING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT DEPICTING
THIS STRONG FRONT (WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S BEHIND
IT ON MONDAY) MOVING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. WITH
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH FAIRLY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WE EXPECT TO SEE
SNOW MOVING IN ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...SPREADING EAST ONTO THE
PLAINS AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER JET...AND WHERE THE
THE SURFACE TO MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO DEEPEN...RIGHT
NOW THIS DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR SNOW SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA. IF
THE MODELS ARE RIGHT...THE HIGHER TOTALS (6+ INCHES) LOOK TO SET
UP TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST LATER ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS CLOSE OFF
THIS SYSTEM AS A DEEP NEGATIVE TILT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH A
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INDICATED OVER WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH LATE WEEK. THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED
ENSEMBLE BLEND FORECAST OF LOW TO MIDRANGE POPS FOR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEST AND LOWER POP RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX EAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. DAILY TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LIGHTER WINDS TODAY THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. OVERALL
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS AT RAWLINS AND LARAMIE 18G28KT THIS MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS
AT REMAINING AIRPORTS WILL PICK UP A BIT 15G25KT MID TO LATE
MORNING...BUT MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE WERE SEEING YESTERDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU NOV 12 2015
A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S/60S ARE LIKELY ON SAT/SUN. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL TO 15 PERCENT...CREATING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WYZ106.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CLH