Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/11/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1112 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR INTERIOR SOUTH FL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE AS DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES ADVANCE TO THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST THIS SLIGHT RISK OF TSTORM
MENTION IN THE FORECAST...AND IS IN LINE WITH SPC AS WELL AS OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THE MAIN RISK FROM ANY TSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP
WOULD BE LIGHTNING STRIKES. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. JUST A FEW SHRA ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE A TSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE ESE 5-10 KT, EXCEPT BECOMING
SW AT KAPF. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IT IS FORECAST TO HAVE VERY
LITTLE IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO, THERE
IS A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND
THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER.
SO, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST, BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED AND SHORT DURATION, WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY OR CIGS. THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS, THE UNCERTAINTY IS FAR TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY
OF THE FORECAST PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME, BUT THERE IS STILL A REMOTE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED STORM, MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, THEN
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...
THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION INCLUDE
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.
AS FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE...ACCORDING TO THE OFFICIAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OFFICIAL TRACK, IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION BY
TONIGHT, THEN NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST, PLEASE CONSULT THE OFFICIAL
PRODUCTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. AS FOR ANY IMPACTS ON
SOUTH FLORIDA, NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. IN ADDITION
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY DIRECT MARINE IMPACTS
AS ITS TRACK AND ITS FORECAST ACCELERATION WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE
FOR GENERATING LONG PERIOD LARGE SWELL. THEREFORE NO DIRECT
IMPACTS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS FORECAST.
FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW AND DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD WITH THE LOW MOVING
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND THE DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT ENTERING THE LOCAL GULF WATERS AND THE LAKE REGION THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE WILL KEEP RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EASTERN PENINSULA. BUT THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GENERAL INSTABILITY
SUCH THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR
REGIONS WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL IN GENERAL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND NONE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS THERE HAVE BEEN NEAR RECORD SETTING OR
RECORD SETTING HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
ALSO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY TREND
DOWN A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. AS THE
DIFFUSE FRONT AFFECTS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...REGIONAL TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE FORECAST.
FOR TUESDAY....BY TUESDAY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE IS FORECAST
TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA IS ALSO FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE TUESDAY...BUT
BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THE GULF
WATERS. THE ONLY IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA IS LIKELY GOING TO BE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LIKELY BEING ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE EXTENDED FORECAST....TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BUT LATER ON
WEDNESDAY A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED. THERE IS NO STRONG RIDGE
FORECAST BEHIND THE DIFFUSE FRONT AND THE FRONT AND BOUNDARY
MOISTURE COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA OR
THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE WEEK WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LATEST
EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES SIMILAR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MARINE...
NEED TO RE-EMPHASIZE THAT NO DIRECT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE ARE FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWEST TODAY THEN MORE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION TUESDAY THEN LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE BY MID-WEEK.
THROUGH MID-WEEK...WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA LATE WEEK INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS WINDS OR POSSIBLY HIGHER
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH INCREASING REGIONAL SEAS.
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS SCENARIO PERSISTS IN FUTURE
GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 74 88 71 / 20 20 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 74 87 73 / 20 20 20 30
MIAMI 88 75 88 74 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 88 74 85 70 / 20 20 30 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1226 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A STALLED BOUNDARY
REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. A TROPICAL SYSTEM, NEWLY FORMED NEAR
THE BAHAMAS, IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST AND FORECAST
TO HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT, IF ANY AT ALL, ON SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A
CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TOMORROW, BUT ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVE
WEATHER AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF EVEN
SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A FEW OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF GLADES
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
WORKING INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER GLADES
COUNTY THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME
AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED NOV 8 3:46 PM EST /
.VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS WEEK...
SHORT TERM...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WAS ALSO A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WEAK LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT...AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT...AS THE DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE WORKS
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS COULD WORK INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW.
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. NHC IS FORECASTING THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE TO THE WNW/NW THROUGH THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE DRIER AIR
AROUND THE DISTURBANCE. THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT
RANGE ON MONDAY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION WHERE A LOW CHANCE OF POPS IS DEPICTED.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS NHC IS FORECASTING
THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE TO THE N/NE AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA AS THE WINDS
BECOME S/SW. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER
THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON
TUESDAY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGHS FOR ALL OF THE
ASOS SITES, AND CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR THE EAST COAST ASOS
SITES ON TUESDAY. MORE ON THIS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING BACK DRY AIR TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN DEPICTED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO MID-NOVEMBER
NORMALS INSTEAD OF THE NEAR-RECORD WARMTH OF RECENT DAYS.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
SWINGING TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THERE COULD BE A SMALL NORTHERLY SWELL AFFECTING THE PALM BEACH
WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE PALM BEACH SEAS TO INCREASE FROM 2 FEET TONIGHT
TO 4 FEET MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GULF
WATERS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE SUBSIDING MONDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...AS THE WINDS DECREASE IN SPEED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
11/9/15 11/9/15 11/10/15 11/10/15
CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS
PBI 87 89 - 1989 88 88 - 1987
FLL 87 91 - 1958 88 88 - 1987
MIA 88 89 - 1989 89 88 - 2000
APF 89 91 - 1946 85 92 - 1946
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 73 88 71 / 20 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 74 88 73 / 20 10 20 20
MIAMI 88 75 89 74 / 20 10 20 20
NAPLES 89 74 85 70 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
707 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
...Updated to upgrade portions of the high wind watch to a high
wind warning...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
Confidence has increased this evening that gusty northwest winds
will increase into the 40 to 45 mph range by late Wednesday
morning northwest of a Johnson City, to Garden City, to La Crosse
line based on the forecast 850mb winds and mean mixed layer winds
from the 18z NAM, 18z GFS, and latest RAP. Wind gusts of near 60
mph will also be possible in this area late morning and early
Wednesday afternoon. Have therefore upgraded the High wind watch
to a high wind warning in these locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
Strong winds can be expected across southwestern Kansas on the
backside of the surface low and a high wind watch was maintained
for Wednesday. The watch was not upgraded since the event looks
to be marginal and high wind warning criteria may not be
achieved. Wind gusts are expected to occasionally reach to
between 50 and 60 mph between 9 am and 2 pm. Given that the upper
level system will pass across central and northern Kansas,
southwestern Kansas will be in the dry slot, resulting in little
or no precipitation. A few showers are possible along interstate
70. A line of thunderstorms will eventually develop along the
trailing cold front, but not until the front encounters deeper moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico father east. Highs will be in the 40s and
50s on Wednesday from west to east across western Kansas. Due to
the cold advection during the late morning and early afternoon,
only a small recovery in temperatures from overnight lows can be
expected.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
Freezing temperatures can be expected Thursday and Friday
mornings as surface high pressure settles into the central
plains. The lighter winds will actually be Friday morning so that
a hard freeze is likely then. A slow warming trend can be
expected from Friday through Sunday ahead of the next upper level
trough approaching the southern plains. There is a small chance of
rain Sunday night with this system. A much stronger upper level
system will amplify over the southern and central plains by next
Monday and Tuesday, along with chances for rain or snow.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
Strong northwest winds will develop early Wednesday as an area of
low pressure at the surface deepens and moves from eastern
Colorado into northeast Kansas. Based on the mean mixed layer
winds from the NAM and GFS sustained northwest winds of 30 to 40
knots with higher gusts will be possible from late morning
through the mid afternoon. Given the agreement between the NAM,
GFS and RAP on timing will begin increasing winds by 12z
Wednesday across western Kansas. Wind speeds of 30 to near 40
knots will occur first at GCK by 15z Wednesday. Will then increase
the winds at DDC and HYS between 15 and 18z Wednesday. These winds
will continue through 21z Wednesday and then begin to taper off
from southwest to northeast.
Areas of fog and stratus is expected to develop after 06z in the
HYS area prior to the strong northwest winds developing early
Wednesday morning. The stratus and fog may approach GCK between
09z and 12z Wednesday. MVFR conditions in visibility and IFR
conditions in status can be expected at HYS mainly between 06z and
09z Wednesday. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 45 48 31 58 / 0 10 0 0
GCK 38 46 29 55 / 0 10 0 0
EHA 41 50 30 56 / 0 10 0 0
LBL 43 51 30 58 / 0 10 0 0
HYS 39 48 30 56 / 10 20 0 0
P28 55 58 34 63 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
High Wind Warning from 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ Wednesday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>063-074-075.
High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for KSZ064>066-076>081-084>090.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
516 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
...Updated Aviation discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
A strong upper level low over the southwest United States
is expected to progress eastward and undergo strong
baroclinic development across the plains on Wednesday. In the
wake of this system, cool surface high pressure will build into
the plains for Wednesday night through late Thursday. Another
upper level storm system will be passing across the southern
plains by Sunday night. A much stronger upper level storm system
will pass across the central plains by next Monday and Tuesday,
along with strong surface cyclogenesis.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
Strong winds can be expected across southwestern Kansas on the
backside of the surface low and a high wind watch was maintained
for Wednesday. The watch was not upgraded since the event looks
to be marginal and high wind warning criteria may not be
achieved. Wind gusts are expected to occasionally reach to
between 50 and 60 mph between 9 am and 2 pm. Given that the upper
level system will pass across central and northern Kansas,
southwestern Kansas will be in the dry slot, resulting in little
or no precipitation. A few showers are possible along interstate
70. A line of thunderstorms will eventually develop along the
trailing cold front, but not until the front encounters deeper moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico father east. Highs will be in the 40s and
50s on Wednesday from west to east across western Kansas. Due to
the cold advection during the late morning and early afternoon,
only a small recovery in temperatures from overnight lows can be
expected.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
Freezing temperatures can be expected Thursday and Friday
mornings as surface high pressure settles into the central
plains. The lighter winds will actually be Friday morning so that
a hard freeze is likely then. A slow warming trend can be
expected from Friday through Sunday ahead of the next upper level
trough approaching the southern plains. There is a small chance of
rain Sunday night with this system. A much stronger upper level
system will amplify over the southern and central plains by next
Monday and Tuesday, along with chances for rain or snow.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
Strong northwest winds will develop early Wednesday as an area of
low pressure at the surface deepens and moves from eastern
Colorado into northeast Kansas. Based on the mean mixed layer
winds from the NAM and GFS sustained northwest winds of 30 to 40
knots with higher gusts will be possible from late morning
through the mid afternoon. Given the agreement between the NAM,
GFS and RAP on timing will begin increasing winds by 12z
Wednesday across western Kansas. Wind speeds of 30 to near 40
knots will occur first at GCK by 15z Wednesday. Will then increase
the winds at DDC and HYS between 15 and 18z Wednesday. These winds
will continue through 21z Wednesday and then begin to taper off
from southwest to northeast.
Areas of fog and stratus is expected to develop after 06z in the
HYS area prior to the strong northwest winds developing early
Wednesday morning. The stratus and fog may approach GCK between
09z and 12z Wednesday. MVFR conditions in visibility and IFR
conditions in status can be expected at HYS mainly between 06z and
09z Wednesday. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 45 48 31 58 / 0 10 0 0
GCK 38 46 29 55 / 0 10 0 0
EHA 41 50 30 56 / 0 10 0 0
LBL 43 51 30 58 / 0 10 0 0
HYS 39 48 30 56 / 10 20 0 0
P28 55 58 34 63 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
400 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
AFTERNOON SURFACE CHART INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF
SHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BROUGHT DECENT SOAKING RAIN THE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEARER THE VA BORDER TODAY...HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING AND
DRIER AIR SEEM TO WAIN THE PRODUCTION IN MOST AREAS OF EASTERN KY.
THAT SAID THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS AIDED IN THIS PROCESS IS
PROGGED TO BE ACROSS MO THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO EJECT
ENE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE AS ENERGY TRAVERSES EAST AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MULTIPLE MODELS AND GUIDANCE PRODUCTS WANT TO DEVELOP A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND MOVE IT DUE NORTH OVERNIGHT...THERE IS ALSO A
DECENT 850MB JET THAT KICKS IN TO HELP IN THE PROCESS. THAT SAID
DID BRIEFLY ENHANCE CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BEFORE THE BETTER LIFT CREEPS NORTH
OF THE REGION AND PRECIP WAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS RELATIVELY WEAK AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS QUIET STRETCH GOING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT SHOULD BRING A COOL NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE...AND LEFT OVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE START OF THE
EXTENDED AND WITH THE MAIN FEATURE IMPACTING THE FORECAST THIS GO
AROUND. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MODEL SYNCHRONICITY STARTS TO FLAG LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GEM AND GFS BUT EXHIBITING SIMILAR
STRENGTH. THE CORE OF THE ENERGY FROM THE ECMWF ALSO STAYS FURTHER
SOUTH AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME...HEIGHT FALLS AND A BAND OF ENERGY WILL
SWEEP INTO KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE TROUGH PASSES
TO THE NORTH. THE MODEL SPREAD THEN INCREASES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...THOUGH...LOW HEIGHTS AND FAST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN QUEBEC. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT FOLLOWS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...JUST WEAK ENERGY PACKETS WILL BE NOTED. HEIGHTS SHOULD
BE ON THE REBOUND FOR THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT WX THIS PERIOD...HAVE YIELDED TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 SOLUTION FOR FORECAST DETAILS AND FAVORED A BLEND
THEREAFTER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SEASONABLY WARM DAY AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER A DRY START TO
THE DAY...MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE CWA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS. BY LATE EVENING...DEWPOINTS
WILL BE UP INTO THE LOW 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED ALONG BY A STRONG MID LEVEL
JET STEAK WITH STORMS LIKELY FORMING WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE
AIR MASS CLASH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
QUITE LIMITED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT
NIGHT...BUT A SQUALL LINE IS A DECENT BET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ITS MOMENTUM FROM THE WEST MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAKE IT INTO THE CWA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY. EITHER
WAY...GUSTY SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE REMNANTS
AND FROPA LATE THAT NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
RAPIDLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON HELPING TO
CLEAR OUT LINGERING SHOWERS AND ALSO THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A CHILLY PERIOD OF QUIET WX WILL FOLLOW
INTO AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TRUDGES ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG WITH MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH PULLS EAST AND WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE
SOUTH.
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHTS. AGAIN TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING TO BETTER REPRESENT HOURLY MOVEMENT OF THE
HIGHEST VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER DRIER AIR AND
DOWNSLOPING HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OVERALL. DID KEEP VCSH TO -RA IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT FOR MOST SITES A PORTION OF THE
PERIOD... ONE REASON IS THE MESO MODELS WANT TO REDEVELOP SHOWERS
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE TRICKY PART HAS BEEN THE
CIGS WITH MOST SITES REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. SITES
HAVE STARTED TO TRANSITION TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE
FOLLOWED SUITE IN THE TAF. NOW BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDING AND
GUIDANCE WE WILL SEE AT LEAST IFR CIGS/VIS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...THEN THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
317 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 317 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015
Upper low is currently centered over Missouri, with a weak surface
low moving up through eastern KY. Deformation band of light to
moderate rain has set up nicely across the western CWA. and will
slowly pivot along a mostly N to S axis through the remainder of the
afternoon evening. This occurs as the upper low moves into Illinois.
Best rainfall coverage occurs along and west of I-65 where we will
have the highest rain chances depicted. Current HRRR and NAM runs
handle this well. East of I-65, precipitation has split up into a
separate area associated with isentropic lift and is mostly east of
the CWA. So, expecting our east to be relatively dry with only a
chance for measurable through the afternoon and early evening. Temps
should continue to hover about where they are.
A sharp PV anomaly rotates around the parent upper low into our
region overnight which will help to enhance the remaining low level
moisture enough to yield some isolated to scattered measurable pops
and/or patchy drizzle. Temps should mostly drop into the low and mid
40s.
Expect most of the CWA to be dry by the morning commute, although do
have to hold onto mention of some very slight chances of a
measurable shower or patchy drizzle across the bluegrass through mid
morning.
Othwerise, Tuesday will be dry with clearing skies from west to east
and temperatures reaching into the low 60s in most spots. Expect
upper 50s in the east where clouds hang on the longest.
Tuesday night brings mostly clear skies with pressure gradient
startint to establish a steady SSE flow. Expect to only see a very
subtle response in low level moisture and most valleys will
decouple. So, looking for upper 30s in the cool spots, with low 40s
in areas that are able to stay slightly mixed.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 317 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Wed Night...
Wednesday - Wednesday Night...
Wednesday will be dry as surface high pressure and progressive upper
ridge axis hold over our region. A steady south wind and mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies will allow temps to rise into the upper
60s and low 70s in some spots during the afternoon.
Upstream, a potent upper system (characterized by 150 kt upper level
jet, and 100-110 kt 500 mb jet) will eject out of the southern
Plains and into the mid Mississippi River Valley by Wednesday
evening. 500 mb trough will take on a negative tilt during this
transition. Associated surface low will deepen as it moves from
western KS to western IA. Strong upper divergence will overspread
the mid Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys through the afternoon and
into the evening hours, resulting in a strong low level jet (50-60
kts) response. At the surface, SSE winds will increase in response
to the pressure falls. Expecting to see 15 to 20 mph, occasionally
gusting around 25-30 mph Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.
Wind fields are undoubtedly impressive, however question continues
to remain with regard to instability. Surface based instability axis
continues to look meager to non-existent as only a very narrow
corridor of 55-60 dew points will build ahead of the cold front.
Despite the lack of instability, still think pockets of gusty to
potentially damaging winds will be possible within strongly forced
line via a couple of bowing segments, particularly across our
western CWA. Organized line of storms should overall weaken as they
progress east through the overnight.
Also, am a bit concerned about a secondary line of showers/storms
right along the frontal boundary, which seems to coincide with the
best instability axis. Low level theta surfaces become vertical
during this time which could allow 30 to 40 mph gradient wind gusts.
Gust potential could then be enhanced by any shower/storm. It is
entirely possible that this could be the worst part of the event,
with the pre-frontal trough acitivity too elevated for wind damage
and mainly just gusty stratiform rain. Either way, the main threat
Wednesday evening will be gusty winds, with a few pockets of
damaging winds likely. Rainfall totals really don`t look all that
impressive given the speed that the system moves through. A brief
spin-up tornado threat is non-zero, but at this point seems pretty
unlikely given the unimpressive dew points and the lack of at least
a little bit of surface based instability.
Timing of between 8 PM to 3 AM EST still looks pretty good for the
bulk of the event. Western areas can expect the earlier part of the
time frame, with the east getting in on the action later.
Thursday - Monday...
Cold front will be east of our CWA by dawn on Thursday. We`ll remain
under the influence of an occasionally reinforced upper trough
Saturday, however lack of moisture will keep things dry. Overall
temperatures will be cool during this time with high mostly in the
50s. A few spots may not reach 50 on Friday and Saturday afternoons.
Lows Thursday night will drop into the 30s, with Friday night lows
down around 30.
Upper ridge and surface high pressure try to hold over the area
through Monday, which will bring continued dry and moderating temps.
Highs Sunday should be back in the upper 50s, and likely touching 60
in many spots by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1230 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015
Continue to have plenty of low-level moisture filtering into the
region from the south, as an upper level low over MO influences our
weather. Light rain showers and drizzle should be the norm this
afternoon, with ceilings lowering through the day. Expect the best
chance for daytime IFR down at KBWG, which in a special ob just
dropped down to that level. Cigs may improve briefly this afternoon,
but expect them to go back down there and at the other sites this
evening. Statistical guidance is a bit more optimistic for SDF then
I`d prefer given saturated time-height sections, so am keeping MVFR
cigs overnight. Skies should scatter out late in the period.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1235 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
PROGRESSED NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE A SURFACE
TROUGH HAS SETUP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS HAS COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WSR-88D SHOWS BEST AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH THIS HOUR...WHILE NORTH OF THIS A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING AND
POSSIBLY DRIER AIR IS STILL BEING OVERCOME. THIS GENERAL THOUGHT
IS SHOWING UP THE OBS FROM BOTH MESONETS AND ASOS/AWOS SITES
MEASURING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...WHILE ZERO TO TRACE
OCCURING IN THE NORTH. ATTEMPTED TO MAKE POPS REFLECT THIS TREND
OVERALL AND ALSO MATCH UP WITH OTHER OFFICES. MESO MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A REDEVELOP PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL HAVE TO
EVALUATE THAT FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. ALSO UPDATED
TEMP/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TREND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE HOURLY WEATHER OBS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. ALL IN ALL
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED AS FAR NORTH AS ROCKCASTLE...OWSLEY...PERRY AND PIKE
COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUT THE DAY AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE HRRR AND NAM12 PRODUCING MUCH LESS QPF THAN THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE MOISTURE
PROFILES SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS...THE MORE MOIST MODELS SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO SLIGHTLY DELAY PRECIPITATION ONSET ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR A DRIER THAN
EXPECTED SURFACE AIR MASS. THIS IN TURN WILL REVERBERATE THROUGH
OUT THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL...SO SLOWER WAS CONSIDERED BETTER
AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED. ALSO REDUCED MAXIMUM PRECIP CHANCES
FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY...GOING WITH MAX POPS OF AROUND 90 AS OPPOSED
TO THE 100 INHERITED FROM YESTERDAYS DAY SHIFT...SIMPLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATER THAN EXPECTED START TO THE RAIN TODAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR THAT IS IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...STILL
BELIEVE THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT SOME POINT TODAY. THE RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS FINALLY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA AROUND 20Z ON TUESDAY. THE IMPETUS FOR THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL WILL BE A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES ITS EAST NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT WILL
HELP DRAW ADDITIONAL LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
IN THE FORM OF A ROUGHLY 30KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
ALSO CREATE ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN.
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE
DAY TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATING THAT WE WILL NOT SEE A VERY BIG
RISE IN TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...IT WAS DECIDED TO ONCE AGAIN GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL THEN ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING A GREAT DEAL OVERNIGHT...SO WE WILL BE EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL WARM
UP IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL KEEP TOMORROWS HIGHS FROM REACHING
SEASONAL VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SWING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED STOUT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR TO OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES IN AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOLLOWING THE MOIST PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS WEEK...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE FOGGY. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS. THICKER CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...SO HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. MOST
LIKELY...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE TO OUR
WEST AND MARCH EAST TOWARDS US OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL
FOR THE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT. THE DEW POINTS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND
50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT...SO ANY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO COME
FROM ALOFT. THERE IS A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET HOWEVER...SO THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS A BIT LONGER INTO OUR AREA. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
IN THE HWO.
ONCE THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THINGS WILL
DRY OUT QUICKLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. BY
SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL BE REDUCED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S...AND
THEN WILL REBOUND TO THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ENSUES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER DRIER AIR AND
DOWNSLOPING HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OVERALL. DID KEEP VCSH TO -RA IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT FOR MOST SITES A PORTION OF THE
PERIOD... ONE REASON IS THE MESO MODELS WANT TO REDEVELOP SHOWERS
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE TRICKY PART HAS BEEN THE
CIGS WITH MOST SITES REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. SITES
HAVE STARTED TO TRANSITION TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE
FOLLOWED SUITE IN THE TAF. NOW BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDING AND
GUIDANCE WE WILL SEE AT LEAST IFR CIGS/VIS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...THEN THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1050 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
PROGRESSED NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE A SURFACE
TROUGH HAS SETUP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS HAS COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WSR-88D SHOWS BEST AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH THIS HOUR...WHILE NORTH OF THIS A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING AND
POSSIBLY DRIER AIR IS STILL BEING OVERCOME. THIS GENERAL THOUGHT
IS SHOWING UP THE OBS FROM BOTH MESONETS AND ASOS/AWOS SITES
MEASURING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...WHILE ZERO TO TRACE
OCCURING IN THE NORTH. ATTEMPTED TO MAKE POPS REFLECT THIS TREND
OVERALL AND ALSO MATCH UP WITH OTHER OFFICES. MESO MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A REDEVELOP PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL HAVE TO
EVALUATE THAT FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. ALSO UPDATED
TEMP/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TREND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE HOURLY WEATHER OBS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. ALL IN ALL
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED AS FAR NORTH AS ROCKCASTLE...OWSLEY...PERRY AND PIKE
COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUT THE DAY AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE HRRR AND NAM12 PRODUCING MUCH LESS QPF THAN THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE MOISTURE
PROFILES SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS...THE MORE MOIST MODELS SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO SLIGHTLY DELAY PRECIPITATION ONSET ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR A DRIER THAN
EXPECTED SURFACE AIR MASS. THIS IN TURN WILL REVERBERATE THROUGH
OUT THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL...SO SLOWER WAS CONSIDERED BETTER
AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED. ALSO REDUCED MAXIMUM PRECIP CHANCES
FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY...GOING WITH MAX POPS OF AROUND 90 AS OPPOSED
TO THE 100 INHERITED FROM YESTERDAYS DAY SHIFT...SIMPLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATER THAN EXPECTED START TO THE RAIN TODAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR THAT IS IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...STILL
BELIEVE THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT SOME POINT TODAY. THE RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS FINALLY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA AROUND 20Z ON TUESDAY. THE IMPETUS FOR THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL WILL BE A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES ITS EAST NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT WILL
HELP DRAW ADDITIONAL LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
IN THE FORM OF A ROUGHLY 30KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
ALSO CREATE ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN.
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE
DAY TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATING THAT WE WILL NOT SEE A VERY BIG
RISE IN TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...IT WAS DECIDED TO ONCE AGAIN GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL THEN ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING A GREAT DEAL OVERNIGHT...SO WE WILL BE EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL WARM
UP IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL KEEP TOMORROWS HIGHS FROM REACHING
SEASONAL VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SWING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED STOUT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR TO OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES IN AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOLLOWING THE MOIST PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS WEEK...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE FOGGY. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS. THICKER CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...SO HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. MOST
LIKELY...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE TO OUR
WEST AND MARCH EAST TOWARDS US OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL
FOR THE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT. THE DEW POINTS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND
50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT...SO ANY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO COME
FROM ALOFT. THERE IS A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET HOWEVER...SO THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS A BIT LONGER INTO OUR AREA. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
IN THE HWO.
ONCE THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THINGS WILL
DRY OUT QUICKLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. BY
SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL BE REDUCED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S...AND
THEN WILL REBOUND TO THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ENSUES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR THE SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN VERY LIGHT IN NATURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT LOZ
AND SME WITH LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING. JKL CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE FIRST
RAIN SHOWERS BY 13Z...WITH MODERATE RAIN MOVING IN BETWEEN 14 AND
15Z TODAY. SJS AND SYM SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
BY AROUND 16Z...WITH MODERATE RAIN ON TAP FROM 18Z ONWARD. MVFR TO
IFR CIGS...ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST
OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT EACH TAF SITE...DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE RAIN AT ANY GIVEN TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
649 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE HOURLY WEATHER OBS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. ALL IN ALL
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED AS FAR NORTH AS ROCKCASTLE...OWSLEY...PERRY AND PIKE
COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUT THE DAY AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE HRRR AND NAM12 PRODUCING MUCH LESS QPF THAN THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE MOISTURE
PROFILES SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS...THE MORE MOIST MODELS SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO SLIGHTLY DELAY PRECIPITATION ONSET ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR A DRIER THAN
EXPECTED SURFACE AIR MASS. THIS IN TURN WILL REVERBERATE THROUGH
OUT THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL...SO SLOWER WAS CONSIDERED BETTER
AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED. ALSO REDUCED MAXIMUM PRECIP CHANCES
FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY...GOING WITH MAX POPS OF AROUND 90 AS OPPOSED
TO THE 100 INHERITED FROM YESTERDAYS DAY SHIFT...SIMPLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATER THAN EXPECTED START TO THE RAIN TODAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR THAT IS IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...STILL
BELIEVE THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT SOME POINT TODAY. THE RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS FINALLY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA AROUND 20Z ON TUESDAY. THE IMPETUS FOR THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL WILL BE A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES ITS EAST NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT WILL
HELP DRAW ADDITIONAL LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
IN THE FORM OF A ROUGHLY 30KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
ALSO CREATE ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN.
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE
DAY TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATING THAT WE WILL NOT SEE A VERY BIG
RISE IN TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...IT WAS DECIDED TO ONCE AGAIN GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL THEN ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING A GREAT DEAL OVERNIGHT...SO WE WILL BE EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL WARM
UP IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL KEEP TOMORROWS HIGHS FROM REACHING
SEASONAL VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SWING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED STOUT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR TO OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES IN AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOLLOWING THE MOIST PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS WEEK...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE FOGGY. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS. THICKER CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...SO HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. MOST
LIKELY...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE TO OUR
WEST AND MARCH EAST TOWARDS US OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL
FOR THE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT. THE DEW POINTS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND
50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT...SO ANY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO COME
FROM ALOFT. THERE IS A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET HOWEVER...SO THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS A BIT LONGER INTO OUR AREA. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
IN THE HWO.
ONCE THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THINGS WILL
DRY OUT QUICKLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. BY
SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL BE REDUCED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S...AND
THEN WILL REBOUND TO THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ENSUES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR THE SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN VERY LIGHT IN NATURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT LOZ
AND SME WITH LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING. JKL CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE FIRST
RAIN SHOWERS BY 13Z...WITH MODERATE RAIN MOVING IN BETWEEN 14 AND
15Z TODAY. SJS AND SYM SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
BY AROUND 16Z...WITH MODERATE RAIN ON TAP FROM 18Z ONWARD. MVFR TO
IFR CIGS...ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST
OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT EACH TAF SITE...DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE RAIN AT ANY GIVEN TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
628 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE HRRR AND NAM12 PRODUCING MUCH LESS QPF THAN THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE MOISTURE
PROFILES SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS...THE MORE MOIST MODELS SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO SLIGHTLY DELAY PRECIPITATION ONSET ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR A DRIER THAN
EXPECTED SURFACE AIR MASS. THIS IN TURN WILL REVERBERATE THROUGH
OUT THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL...SO SLOWER WAS CONSIDERED BETTER
AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED. ALSO REDUCED MAXIMUM PRECIP CHANCES
FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY...GOING WITH MAX POPS OF AROUND 90 AS OPPOSED
TO THE 100 INHERITED FROM YESTERDAYS DAY SHIFT...SIMPLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATER THAN EXPECTED START TO THE RAIN TODAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR THAT IS IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...STILL
BELIEVE THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT SOME POINT TODAY. THE RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS FINALLY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA AROUND 20Z ON TUESDAY. THE IMPETUS FOR THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL WILL BE A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES ITS EAST NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT WILL
HELP DRAW ADDITIONAL LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
IN THE FORM OF A ROUGHLY 30KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
ALSO CREATE ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN.
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE
DAY TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATING THAT WE WILL NOT SEE A VERY BIG
RISE IN TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...IT WAS DECIDED TO ONCE AGAIN GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL THEN ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING A GREAT DEAL OVERNIGHT...SO WE WILL BE EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL WARM
UP IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL KEEP TOMORROWS HIGHS FROM REACHING
SEASONAL VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SWING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED STOUT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR TO OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES IN AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOLLOWING THE MOIST PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS WEEK...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE FOGGY. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS. THICKER CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...SO HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. MOST
LIKELY...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE TO OUR
WEST AND MARCH EAST TOWARDS US OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL
FOR THE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT. THE DEW POINTS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND
50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT...SO ANY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO COME
FROM ALOFT. THERE IS A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET HOWEVER...SO THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS A BIT LONGER INTO OUR AREA. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
IN THE HWO.
ONCE THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THINGS WILL
DRY OUT QUICKLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. BY
SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL BE REDUCED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S...AND
THEN WILL REBOUND TO THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ENSUES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR THE SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN VERY LIGHT IN NATURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT LOZ
AND SME WITH LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING. JKL CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE FIRST
RAIN SHOWERS BY 13Z...WITH MODERATE RAIN MOVING IN BETWEEN 14 AND
15Z TODAY. SJS AND SYM SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
BY AROUND 16Z...WITH MODERATE RAIN ON TAP FROM 18Z ONWARD. MVFR TO
IFR CIGS...ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST
OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT EACH TAF SITE...DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE RAIN AT ANY GIVEN TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
355 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE HRRR AND NAM12 PRODUCING MUCH LESS QPF THAN THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE MOISTURE
PROFILES SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS...THE MORE MOIST MODELS SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO SLIGHTLY DELAY PRECIPITATION ONSET ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR A DRIER THAN
EXPECTED SURFACE AIR MASS. THIS IN TURN WILL REVERBERATE THROUGH
OUT THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL...SO SLOWER WAS CONSIDERED BETTER
AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED. ALSO REDUCED MAXIMUM PRECIP CHANCES
FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY...GOING WITH MAX POPS OF AROUND 90 AS OPPOSED
TO THE 100 INHERITED FROM YESTERDAYS DAY SHIFT...SIMPLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATER THAN EXPECTED START TO THE RAIN TODAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR THAT IS IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...STILL
BELIEVE THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT SOME POINT TODAY. THE RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS FINALLY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA AROUND 20Z ON TUESDAY. THE IMPETUS FOR THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL WILL BE A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES ITS EAST NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT WILL
HELP DRAW ADDITIONAL LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
IN THE FORM OF A ROUGHLY 30KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
ALSO CREATE ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN.
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE
DAY TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATING THAT WE WILL NOT SEE A VERY BIG
RISE IN TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...IT WAS DECIDED TO ONCE AGAIN GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL THEN ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING A GREAT DEAL OVERNIGHT...SO WE WILL BE EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL WARM
UP IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL KEEP TOMORROWS HIGHS FROM REACHING
SEASONAL VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SWING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED STOUT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR TO OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES IN AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOLLOWING THE MOIST PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS WEEK...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE FOGGY. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS. THICKER CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...SO HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. MOST
LIKELY...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE TO OUR
WEST AND MARCH EAST TOWARDS US OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL
FOR THE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT. THE DEW POINTS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND
50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT...SO ANY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO COME
FROM ALOFT. THERE IS A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET HOWEVER...SO THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS A BIT LONGER INTO OUR AREA. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
IN THE HWO.
ONCE THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THINGS WILL
DRY OUT QUICKLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. BY
SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL BE REDUCED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S...AND
THEN WILL REBOUND TO THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ENSUES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. THIS
RETURN IN MOISTURE IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW EJECTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE SYSTEMS WILL JOIN FORCES TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING AROUND 12Z AT LOZ AND SME. THE RAIN
SHOULD REACH JKL BY 15Z AND SYM AND SJS BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z TODAY.
THE RAIN COULD PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES...AND THE ADDED
MOISTURE WILL ALSO CAUSE CIGS TO FALL TO LIFR LEVELS FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
314 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE HRRR AND NAM12 PRODUCING MUCH LESS QPF THAN THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE MOISTURE
PROFILES SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS...THE MORE MOIST MODELS SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO SLIGHTLY DELAY PRECIPITATION ONSET ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR A DRIER THAN
EXPECT SURFACE AIR MASS. THIS IN TURN WILL REVERBERATE THROUGH
OUT THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL...SO SLOWER WAS CONSIDERED BETTER
AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED. ALSO REDUCED MAXIMUM PRECIP CHANCES
FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY...GOING WITH MAX POPS OF AROUND 90 AS OPPOSED
TO THE 100 INHERITED FROM YESTERDAYS DAY SHIFT...SIMPLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATER THAN EXPECTED START TO THE RAIN TODAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR THAT IS IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...STILL
BELIEVE THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT SOME POINT TODAY. THE RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS FINALLY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA AROUND 20Z ON TUESDAY. THE IMPETUS FOR THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL WILL BE A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES ITS EAST NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT WILL
HELP DRAW ADDITIONAL LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
IN THE FORM OF A ROUGHLY 30KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
ALSO CREATE ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN.
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE
DAY TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATING THAT WE WILL NO SEE A VERY BIG RISE
IN TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...IT WAS DECIDED TO ONCE AGAIN GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL THEN ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING A GREAT DEAL OVERNIGHT...SO WE WILL BE EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL WARM
UP IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL KEEP TOMORROWS HIGHS FROM REACHING
SEASONAL VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. THIS
RETURN IN MOISTURE IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW EJECTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE SYSTEMS WILL JOIN FORCES TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING AROUND 12Z AT LOZ AND SME. THE RAIN
SHOULD REACH JKL BY 15Z AND SYM AND SJS BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z TODAY.
THE RAIN COULD PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES...AND THE ADDED
MOISTURE WILL ALSO CAUSE CIGS TO FALL TO LIFR LEVELS FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
629 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES IN REPONSE TO A TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. AS A
RESULT...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER MILD NOV DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
DESPITE FAIRLY THICK CI SPREADING OVERHEAD...TEMPS HAVE STILL RISEN
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD...A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE REACHED 60F.
TONIGHT...LINGERING DRY AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH
THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER LIGHT SW WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FAVORED THE
LOWER END OF AVBL GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE BIAS CORRECTED
REGIONAL GEM. EXPECT TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE SCNTRL
AND E TO FALL TO THE MID 20S. DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
OVER THE W AND NCNTRL WILL ONLY FALL TO THE UPPER 30S/LWR 40S. LIGHT
SW FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN ADVECTING HIGHER DWPTS INTO THE CHILLY
INTERIOR WILL LEAD TO FOG AND MAYBE SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE
ERN FCST AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
ON WED...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE CURRENT WRN CONUS TROF WHICH WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE PLAINS. ENERGY SWINGING THRU BASE OF THE TROF
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT 12HR HEIGHT FALLS...REACHING 230-250M AT
500MB BY 00Z THU OVER SRN IA/NRN MO. IN RESPONSE...INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL LEAD TO MOISTURE SURGING N UP THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WED. PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1 INCH WILL REACH AT
LEAST CNTRL WI BY EVENING. A SLOW/STEADY INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME -RA SPREADING INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTN. WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT STILL OFF TO
THE SW OF UPPER MI THRU THE AFTN...THE MAIN PCPN EVENT WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL WED NIGHT. GIVEN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...
GENERALLY UTILIZED A CONSENSUS OF AVBL GUIDANCE FOR SPREADING SCHC
TO CHC POPS NE INTO ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE
AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONG LOW THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN DRAGGING A TRAILING TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF AFDS...THE STORM PERFORMS MUCH OF ITS STRENGTHENING
AS IT IS NEARING THE AREA AND THEN BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST UPPER MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. THIS WILL END UP LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THE
WINDS FOR OUR CWA AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THINK THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT (LEADING
TO THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION) WILL HELP KEEP THE WINDS IN CHECK.
THAT BEING SAID...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SOME GALES TO 35KTS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND GUSTS TO 20-30KTS OVER SOME OF THE
EASTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...THE WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WHERE THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ARE OCCURRING AND THERE IS
35-40KT LOW LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT THAT TO OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LIKELY PRODUCE GALES OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE FINAL SURGE OF STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH THAT DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
30-35KT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE HEIGHTENED WORDING IN THE HWO (ALTHOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER VALUES) AND ADD A MENTION OF STRONG WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOR PRECIPITATION...THE INITIAL SURGE ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIED TO THE BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK DRY
SLOT ALOFT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN CWA. BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK/MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION DURING
THE REST OF THE EVENT WILL BE TIED TO THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AIDED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C. THOSE FALLING TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WEST-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.P. TO LEAD TO A MARKED
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING OVER THE WESTERN U.P.. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TAKE A
LITTLE LONGER TO REACH THE EASTERN U.P....BUT SHOULD SEE IT TAKE OFF
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. ONCE IT TURNS OVER TO SNOW...THINK SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE (SNOW RATIOS AROUND 9 TO 1 WITH THE BEST FORCING
BELOW THE DGZ) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND DEFINITELY
THINK HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE SHIFTS. PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST 0.75IN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OUT WEST NEARING 1.5 INCHES.
ADD TO THAT AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.85 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OVER THE WEST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION AFTER A DRY FALL.
AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TRENDS TEMPERATURES BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE ENERGY IS SPLIT WELL TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO DON/T EXPECT TOO SIGNIFICANT
OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT FELT CHANCE POPS WERE REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED AFTN DUE TO AN EXTREMELY DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY
CHANGE STARTING LATE WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. IWD AND PERHAPS SAW MAY SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING UNDER A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE PLAINS WHERE DEEPENING
LOW PRES WILL LIFT NE TO IA LATE WED AFTN. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK
TO NEAR THE STRAITS BY MID AFTN THU AND TO SRN QUEBEC BY FRI
MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP LATE WED AFTN AND WILL
PEAK LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING WHEN GALES ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER
DIMINISHING TO 20-30KT FOR THU AFTN/EVENING...WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE TO NW GALES FOR AT LEAST CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THU NIGHT/FRI IN THE WAKE OF A TROF PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW PRES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO 10-20KT OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ162-263-264-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
354 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW
PREVAILED THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH PRES FROM THE ERN LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH OVER THE WRN PLAINS. VIS LOOP SHOWED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MI/WI/MN WITH HIGH CLOUDS WELL OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS.
TONIGHT...A WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE SW WINDS TO DIMINISH
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS
SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE
UPER 30S FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY DOWNSLOPE SW FLOW.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED SRLY
FLOW WILL AGAIN PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...WITH FCST
925-900 MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY AND A FEW MORE HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT MAX REAINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.
SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50-55 RANGE OVER THE
SE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS ON THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...SO WILL COVER
THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE MODELS FIRST. THE UPPER TROUGH COMING ON
SHORE ON THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
IN EASTERN COLORADO BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING TO 987MB IN IOWA BY
00Z THURSDAY. THE LOW MAY DEEPEN A LITTLE MORE OVER THE FOLLOWING
12HRS...BUT LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND REACH THE SOO AROUND 987MB AT 18Z THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN
SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPIN FOR AROUND
24 HOURS BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
WHILE THE STORM WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LOWER
THAN WHAT THEY COULD HAVE BEEN WITH RESPECT TO WIND DUE TO THE UPPER
LOW CLOSING OFF AND BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR IN PLACE
INITIALLY WILL LEAD TO THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND TRANSITIONS THE
RAIN TO SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
FIRST FOR THE WIND...THERE WILL BE THREE DIFFERENT WAVES OF
STRONGER WINDS AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE FIRST ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH THE STRONG (25-30KT)
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.P. THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST (GUSTING TO SIMILAR VALUES) BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING (25-40KT GUSTS). THAT LAST SHIFT WILL
LIKELY MARK THE STRONGEST WINDS DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
COLD AIR SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SHORT
GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN GALE
EVENT OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH INTO FRIDAY. THAT COULD ALSO PRODUCE
THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.
FOR PRECIPITATION...THE INITIAL SURGE ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIED TO THE BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER MENTION IN PLACE
WITH THE SHOWALTER VALUES FALLING TO AROUND ZERO AND SOME POCKETS
OF MUCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK DRY
SLOT ALOFT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN CWA. BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK/MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION DURING THE REST OF THE
EVENT WILL BE TIED TO THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AIDED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C. THOSE FALLING
TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. TO LEAD TO A MARKED INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN U.P.. THE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO REACH THE EASTERN
U.P....BUT SHOULD SEE IT TAKE OFF TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE
AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ONCE IT TURNS OVER TO
SNOW...THINK A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL START TO MENTION IN THE HWO. WITH THE TIME
OF DAY AND INTENSITY...WOULD EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATION ON THE
ROADWAYS EVEN WITH THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN
HAVING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OUT WEST NEARING 1.5 INCHES.
ADD TO THAT AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OVER THE WEST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION AFTER A DRY FALL.
AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TRENDS TEMPERATURES BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
SRLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH
E GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI EVENING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND BACK TO THE SW AS A
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WRN LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
334 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A SW
FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND A TROUGH INTO THE WRN PLAINS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 30F SOUTH CENTRAL
FOR SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE WI BORDER UNDER LIGHT WINDS/DECREASED
MIXING. MEANWHILE HIGHER READINGS (IN THE 40S) HAVE BEEN COMMON
ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES DUE TO GREATER MIXING FROM SW WINDS
GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TODAY
TO REACH VALUES AT LEAST AS HIGH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SUNDAY AS
TEMPS TO MIXING LEVEL (AROUND 900 MB) CONTINUE TO CLIMB. THUS...
EXPECT TEMPS ON THE HIGHER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SLACKENING SW GRAD WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO LOWER INTO THE MID 20S FOR SOME OF THE
FAVORED CENTRAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS WHILE MIXING FROM DIMINISHED SW
WINDS WILL STILL KEEP READINGS HIGHER FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS ON THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...SO WILL COVER
THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE MODELS FIRST. THE UPPER TROUGH COMING ON
SHORE ON THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
IN EASTERN COLORADO BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING TO 987MB IN IOWA BY
00Z THURSDAY. THE LOW MAY DEEPEN A LITTLE MORE OVER THE FOLLOWING
12HRS...BUT LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND REACH THE SOO AROUND 987MB AT 18Z THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN
SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPIN FOR AROUND
24 HOURS BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
WHILE THE STORM WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LOWER
THAN WHAT THEY COULD HAVE BEEN WITH RESPECT TO WIND DUE TO THE UPPER
LOW CLOSING OFF AND BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR IN PLACE
INITIALLY WILL LEAD TO THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND TRANSITIONS THE
RAIN TO SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
FIRST FOR THE WIND...THERE WILL BE THREE DIFFERENT WAVES OF
STRONGER WINDS AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE FIRST ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH THE STRONG (25-30KT)
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.P. THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST (GUSTING TO SIMILAR VALUES) BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING (25-40KT GUSTS). THAT LAST SHIFT WILL
LIKELY MARK THE STRONGEST WINDS DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
COLD AIR SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SHORT
GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN GALE
EVENT OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH INTO FRIDAY. THAT COULD ALSO PRODUCE
THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.
FOR PRECIPITATION...THE INITIAL SURGE ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIED TO THE BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER MENTION IN PLACE
WITH THE SHOWALTER VALUES FALLING TO AROUND ZERO AND SOME POCKETS
OF MUCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK DRY
SLOT ALOFT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN CWA. BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK/MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION DURING THE REST OF THE
EVENT WILL BE TIED TO THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AIDED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C. THOSE FALLING
TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. TO LEAD TO A MARKED INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN U.P.. THE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO REACH THE EASTERN
U.P....BUT SHOULD SEE IT TAKE OFF TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE
AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ONCE IT TURNS OVER TO
SNOW...THINK A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL START TO MENTION IN THE HWO. WITH THE TIME
OF DAY AND INTENSITY...WOULD EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATION ON THE
ROADWAYS EVEN WITH THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN
HAVING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OUT WEST NEARING 1.5 INCHES.
ADD TO THAT AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OVER THE WEST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION AFTER A DRY FALL.
AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TRENDS TEMPERATURES BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
AS HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC...SW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY. SRLY WINDS AOB 20 KNOTS MON NIGHT
INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH E GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE
LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1251 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A SW
FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND A TROUGH INTO THE WRN PLAINS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 30F SOUTH CENTRAL
FOR SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE WI BORDER UNDER LIGHT WINDS/DECREASED
MIXING. MEANWHILE HIGHER READINGS (IN THE 40S) HAVE BEEN COMMON
ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES DUE TO GREATER MIXING FROM SW WINDS
GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TODAY
TO REACH VALUES AT LEAST AS HIGH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SUNDAY AS
TEMPS TO MIXING LEVEL (AROUND 900 MB) CONTINUE TO CLIMB. THUS...
EXPECT TEMPS ON THE HIGHER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SLACKENING SW GRAD WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO LOWER INTO THE MID 20S FOR SOME OF THE
FAVORED CENTRAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS WHILE MIXING FROM DIMINISHED SW
WINDS WILL STILL KEEP READINGS HIGHER FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER TUE INTO EARLY WED...WILL FOCUS ON
STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK.
HAVE SEEN A FEW CHANGES WITH MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE SYSTEM SINCE
LAST NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE CHANGES AS THE SYSTEM
IS JUST MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY SOME RELATIVELY MINOR TIMING/TRACK
DIFFERENCES...IN SHOWING A STACKED LOW (985MB MSLP) MOVING FROM JUST
S OF THE CWA AT 12Z THU TO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 18Z THU...THEN INTO
QUEBEC BY 06Z FRI. ONE OF THE BIGGER CHANGES SINCE LAST NIGHT IS
THAT MODELS NOW SHOW THE LOW FILLING AFTER IT MOVE E OF THE U.P. SO
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AT THIS TIME. A
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BRINGING COLDER AIR ALONG
WITH IT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER ON SAT WITH WARMER TEMPS BEHIND IT.
RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LATER IN THE DAY WED AND REALLY
PICKS UP LATE WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT WHEN MODELS SHOW AN INCH OR
MORE OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...BUT WITH WAA DO NOT EXPECT GALES OR WIND ADVISORIES
THEN. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER CHANCES WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. COLD AIR SURGING IN FROM THE W LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT
WILL BRING A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE AND LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS IT
LOOKED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A DECENT LAKE ENHANCEMENT
SETUP. NOT AS ALL CERTAIN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IT
IS...BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W-NW ON THU
AND WILL STAY UP INTO FRI NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. DID KNOCK WINDS DOWN SOME GIVEN TREND IN GUIDANCE OF THE
LOW FILLING AS IT MOVES E.
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SAT NIGHT...WILL JUST LET CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE POPULATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
AS HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC...SW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY. SRLY WINDS AOB 20 KNOTS MON NIGHT
INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH E GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE
LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
619 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A SW
FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND A TROUGH INTO THE WRN PLAINS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 30F SOUTH CENTRAL
FOR SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE WI BORDER UNDER LIGHT WINDS/DECREASED
MIXING. MEANWHILE HIGHER READINGS (IN THE 40S) HAVE BEEN COMMON
ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES DUE TO GREATER MIXING FROM SW WINDS
GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TODAY
TO REACH VALUES AT LEAST AS HIGH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SUNDAY AS
TEMPS TO MIXING LEVEL (AROUND 900 MB) CONTINUE TO CLIMB. THUS...
EXPECT TEMPS ON THE HIGHER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SLACKENING SW GRAD WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO LOWER INTO THE MID 20S FOR SOME OF THE
FAVORED CENTRAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS WHILE MIXING FROM DIMINISHED SW
WINDS WILL STILL KEEP READINGS HIGHER FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER TUE INTO EARLY WED...WILL FOCUS ON
STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK.
HAVE SEEN A FEW CHANGES WITH MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE SYSTEM SINCE
LAST NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE CHANGES AS THE SYSTEM
IS JUST MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY SOME RELATIVELY MINOR TIMING/TRACK
DIFFERENCES...IN SHOWING A STACKED LOW (985MB MSLP) MOVING FROM JUST
S OF THE CWA AT 12Z THU TO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 18Z THU...THEN INTO
QUEBEC BY 06Z FRI. ONE OF THE BIGGER CHANGES SINCE LAST NIGHT IS
THAT MODELS NOW SHOW THE LOW FILLING AFTER IT MOVE E OF THE U.P. SO
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AT THIS TIME. A
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BRINGING COLDER AIR ALONG
WITH IT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER ON SAT WITH WARMER TEMPS BEHIND IT.
RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LATER IN THE DAY WED AND REALLY
PICKS UP LATE WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT WHEN MODELS SHOW AN INCH OR
MORE OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...BUT WITH WAA DO NOT EXPECT GALES OR WIND ADVISORIES
THEN. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER CHANCES WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. COLD AIR SURGING IN FROM THE W LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT
WILL BRING A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE AND LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS IT
LOOKED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A DECENT LAKE ENHANCEMENT
SETUP. NOT AS ALL CERTAIN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IT
IS...BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W-NW ON THU
AND WILL STAY UP INTO FRI NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. DID KNOCK WINDS DOWN SOME GIVEN TREND IN GUIDANCE OF THE
LOW FILLING AS IT MOVES E.
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SAT NIGHT...WILL JUST LET CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE POPULATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
AS HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC...SW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY. SRLY WINDS AOB 20 KNOTS MON NIGHT
INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH E GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE
LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
431 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A SW
FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND A TROUGH INTO THE WRN PLAINS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 30F SOUTH CENTRAL
FOR SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE WI BORDER UNDER LIGHT WINDS/DECREASED
MIXING. MEANWHILE HIGHER READINGS (IN THE 40S) HAVE BEEN COMMON
ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES DUE TO GREATER MIXING FROM SW WINDS
GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TODAY
TO REACH VALUES AT LEAST AS HIGH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SUNDAY AS
TEMPS TO MIXING LEVEL (AROUND 900 MB) CONTINUE TO CLIMB. THUS...
EXPECT TEMPS ON THE HIGHER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SLACKENING SW GRAD WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO LOWER INTO THE MID 20S FOR SOME OF THE
FAVORED CENTRAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS WHILE MIXING FROM DIMINISHED SW
WINDS WILL STILL KEEP READINGS HIGHER FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER TUE INTO EARLY WED...WILL FOCUS ON
STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK.
HAVE SEEN A FEW CHANGES WITH MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE SYSTEM SINCE
LAST NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE CHANGES AS THE SYSTEM
IS JUST MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY SOME RELATIVELY MINOR TIMING/TRACK
DIFFERENCES...IN SHOWING A STACKED LOW (985MB MSLP) MOVING FROM JUST
S OF THE CWA AT 12Z THU TO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 18Z THU...THEN INTO
QUEBEC BY 06Z FRI. ONE OF THE BIGGER CHANGES SINCE LAST NIGHT IS
THAT MODELS NOW SHOW THE LOW FILLING AFTER IT MOVE E OF THE U.P. SO
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AT THIS TIME. A
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BRINGING COLDER AIR ALONG
WITH IT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER ON SAT WITH WARMER TEMPS BEHIND IT.
RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LATER IN THE DAY WED AND REALLY
PICKS UP LATE WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT WHEN MODELS SHOW AN INCH OR
MORE OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...BUT WITH WAA DO NOT EXPECT GALES OR WIND ADVISORIES
THEN. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER CHANCES WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. COLD AIR SURGING IN FROM THE W LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT
WILL BRING A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE AND LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS IT
LOOKED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A DECENT LAKE ENHANCEMENT
SETUP. NOT AS ALL CERTAIN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IT
IS...BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W-NW ON THU
AND WILL STAY UP INTO FRI NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. DID KNOCK WINDS DOWN SOME GIVEN TREND IN GUIDANCE OF THE
LOW FILLING AS IT MOVES E.
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SAT NIGHT...WILL JUST LET CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE POPULATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES WHICH
WILL GO AWAY MON MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
AS HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC...SW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY. SRLY WINDS AOB 20 KNOTS MON NIGHT
INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH E GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE
LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
319 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...BREEZY SW
WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN
HIGH PRES OVER OH/PA AND A TROUGH INTO THE WRN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI WITH LOWER READINGS AROUND 50 DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MIXING WITH PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID 30S...ESPECIALLY IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS WHERE READINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 40.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH VALUES AT LEAST AS
HIGH OR SLIGHTY HIGHER THAN TODAY AS 925-900 MB TEMPS CLIMB. SO...
EXPECT TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER TUE INTO EARLY WED...WILL FOCUS ON
STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK.
HAVE SEEN A FEW CHANGES WITH MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE SYSTEM SINCE
LAST NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE CHANGES AS THE SYSTEM
IS JUST MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY SOME RELATIVELY MINOR TIMING/TRACK
DIFFERENCES...IN SHOWING A STACKED LOW (985MB MSLP) MOVING FROM JUST
S OF THE CWA AT 12Z THU TO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 18Z THU...THEN INTO
QUEBEC BY 06Z FRI. ONE OF THE BIGGER CHANGES SINCE LAST NIGHT IS
THAT MODELS NOW SHOW THE LOW FILLING AFTER IT MOVE E OF THE U.P. SO
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AT THIS TIME. A
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BRINGING COLDER AIR ALONG
WITH IT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER ON SAT WITH WARMER TEMPS BEHIND IT.
RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LATER IN THE DAY WED AND REALLY
PICKS UP LATE WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT WHEN MODELS SHOW AN INCH OR
MORE OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...BUT WITH WAA DO NOT EXPECT GALES OR WIND ADVISORIES
THEN. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER CHANCES WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. COLD AIR SURGING IN FROM THE W LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT
WILL BRING A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE AND LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS IT
LOOKED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A DECENT LAKE ENHANCEMENT
SETUP. NOT AS ALL CERTAIN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IT
IS...BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W-NW ON THU
AND WILL STAY UP INTO FRI NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. DID KNOCK WINDS DOWN SOME GIVEN TREND IN GUIDANCE OF THE
LOW FILLING AS IT MOVES E.
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SAT NIGHT...WILL JUST LET CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE POPULATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES WHICH
WILL GO AWAY MON MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
AS HIGH PRES OVER OH/[A CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST...SW
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY. SRLY WINDS AOB 20 KNOTS MON INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH E
GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1247 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...BREEZY SW
WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN
HIGH PRES OVER OH/PA AND A TROUGH INTO THE WRN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI WITH LOWER READINGS AROUND 50 DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MIXING WITH PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID 30S...ESPECIALLY IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS WHERE READINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 40.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH VALUES AT LEAST AS
HIGH OR SLIGHTY HIGHER THAN TODAY AS 925-900 MB TEMPS CLIMB. SO...
EXPECT TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
...LATE WEEK STORM TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SOME SNOW...
ATTN IS SQUARELY ON STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE SYSTEM...BOTH AHEAD OF THE LOW AND AGAIN
BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. COLDER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE LOW ALONG WITH
ARRIVAL OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT/MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. ALL AREAS WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS ON
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE NEXT WEEKEND...THEN BIG DIFFERENCES OCCUR
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR WHAT OCCURS JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED DAYS 8-
10. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH TROUGHS/RIDGES...SO
NO NEED TO STRAY FM CONSENSUS ATTM.
BACK TO EARLY THIS WEEK. CONDITIONS APPEAR TRANQUIL UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OFF OF PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY TUESDAY THEN HEADS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WELL AGREED UPON BY MODELS TRACKS TO
CENTRAL KS BY THAT TIME. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE LOW...MAINLY IN THE H8-H7 LAYER...BUT IT REMAINS DRY BLO CLOUD
BASE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT POPS
STAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE. LATER WED AFTN INTO WED EVENING PVA AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT 295-305K
SFCS /H85-H6/ SHOULD SUPPORT WIDEPSREAD SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS /12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OVER 250M/ DRY SLOT ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR TSRA AS SHOWN BY SI/S NEAR ZERO. THOUGH COVERAGE OF
SHRA DECREASES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...CORE OF COLDEST
AIR ALOFT WITH UPR LOW CENTER COULD LEAD TO SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA.
KEPT MENTION OF TSRA IN UNTIL SI/S START RISING WELL ABOVE ZERO.
SFC LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FM NORTHERN OR NORTHEAST WI ON THURSDAY
MORNING TO NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN/EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY EARLY AFTN.
ECMWF FARTHER WEST WITH TRACK OF LOW COMPARED TO GFS AND GEM-NH.
ONCE THE LOW CROSSES EAST OF CWA ON THURSDAY AFTN...EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NW AND BEGIN INCREASING. TRACK OF LOW AND SPEED OF LOW
WILL HAVE LARGE BEARING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS INCREASE IN WIND OCCURS.
WITH A FARTHER EAST TRACK TO THE LOW IN GFS/ECMWF COMPARED TO RECENT
MODEL RUNS...WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG ACROSS LK SUPERIOR INTO THU
NIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT 35-40 KTS IN MIXED LAYER THOUGH...SO GUSTS
NEAR THE SHORE WOULD STILL BE NEAR ADVY.
ONCE COLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL BE
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MORE MIXING AND GALES OVER LK SUPERIOR WITH
ADVY WINDS /45+ MPH GUSTS/ NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE. GUSTS OVER LAND
IN THE 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ATTN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WILL ALSO BE ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WESTERN CWA. EXTENT
OF COLD AIR IS BECOMING MORE IN QUESTION THOUGH...RESULTING IN NOT
AS CLEAR CUT AS LAKE ENHANCED SCENARIO AS IT APPEARED 24 HR AGO.
MAIN ISSUE IS SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTN
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW THE WAVE DIGGING FARTHER
SOUTH AND THEREFORE ARE WARMER OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND UPR
MICHIGAN /H85 TEMPS AROUND -3C VERSUS THE GFS SHOWING AVG OF -7C/.
EITHER SCENARIO IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT BUT ECMWF AND
GEM-NH WOULD RESULT IN MORE MARGINAL SETUP FOR MUCH SNOWFALL. SINCE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE STILL OVER PACIFIC...PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THINGS TO CHANGE...SO WILL NOT CHANGE GOING FORECAST TOO MUCH. BUT
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL ALSO NOT MENTION THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES WHICH
WILL GO AWAY MON MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
AS HIGH PRES OVER OH/[A CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST...SW
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY. SRLY WINDS AOB 20 KNOTS MON INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH E
GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
901 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR BEING
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIXTURE OF PRECIP INITIALLY
THAT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE WEST...AS NORTH WINDS
STRENGTHEN. REFER TO THE LATEST HEADLINES RELEASED FOR MORE
DETAILS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST A SNOW BAND WILL DEVELOP OVER GARDEN AND
DEUEL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE HIGH
TERRAIN ACROSS DEUEL COUNTY...A BLIZZARD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
THERE WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS GARDEN
COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
STRONG STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS UTAH...AND WILL EMERGE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO CENTRAL IOWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
IN ADDITION RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM SYSTEM. VERY STRONG LIFT WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH NAM MODEL INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION POSSIBLE ENHANCING PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL
RATES DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS IS A VERY QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM...SO NO ONE AREA EXPECTED TO SEE MORE THAN A SIX
HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. STRONG WINDS LINGER INTO THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA WHERE
STRONG WINDS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR A RAIN OR SNOW MIX ENDING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S...FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST MORNING LOWS TAPERING UPWARDS TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL.
THURSDAY CLEARING AND COOLER AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST.
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING IN THE WEST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND PEAKING SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
MONDAY THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER STRONGER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA BETWEEN
05Z-11Z TONIGHT AS A MAJOR STORM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA.
THIS WILL BE A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM AND PARTS OF WRN NEB COLD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z WEDNESDAY. THE SLOWEST MODELS CONTINUE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 UNTIL 03Z. NOTE A PERIOD OF
LIFR IN SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 08Z ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHICH
WOULD DEVELOP SLOWLY EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/
WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ056-058-069-070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST /5
PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ022-024>026-035>037-057-059-071.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ010-
027>029-038.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ010-027>029-038.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...TAYLOR
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015
AT H5 UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. TROUGH MOVING INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RIDGING ALONG
THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF UPPER LOW AND WEAK RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
THERE IS A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER
TROUGH AND A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015
SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. DEW POINT SPREAD
DOWN TO ABOUT 1F ALONG THE NEBRASKA COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN THE VICINITY. STRONGER WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S.
LIGHTER WINDS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
AFTER A COMPARATIVELY WARM START TO THE MORNING AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND 60 OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20MPH. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE AND OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 30S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DECOUPLING OVER THE WEST AND
REMAINING UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE
30S NORTH CENTRAL AND THE 20S OVER THE WEST. DRY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS ON THE INTENSE MID-WEEK
CYCLONE. RAIN THAT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS FORECAST WITH
EXTREMELY GUSTY WIND. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THUS THE
ACCUMULATION FORECAST REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. BRIEF
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
OVERALL THERE/S BEEN LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS REGARDING
THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG MID LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND PROVIDE FOR INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION OF NEBRASKA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MIDLEVEL LOW WILL EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES
WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE
SYSTEM...NOW SUGGESTING THE H5 LOW OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. FROM THERE...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW AND ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE PLACES THE CWA
UNDER PERIODS OF FAVORABLE DEFORMATION AS THE STORM ADVANCES
EAST. THE FIRST BAND IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SW NEBRASKA NORTH INTO
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE NEXT
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. IN
BOTH CASES THE QPF WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY ANY
POTENTIAL CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. AT
THIS POINT THE MODELS FAVOR A LARGE AREA OF DRIZZLE OR WARM
SECTOR LIGHT RAIN...THUS NO IMPACTS INDICATED BY CONVECTION. SO
THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK...THUS WITH CONFIDENCE...POPS WERE
INCREASED IN THE AREAS OF FAVORED DEFORMATION. DESPITE THE SYSTEM
BEING DISCONNECTED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WOULD SUPPORT A QUICKER
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WHICH LAST INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO
CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT UNDER THE DEFORMATION BANDS DYNAMIC
COOLING WOULD PUSH T/S EVEN COOLER IT WAS DETERMINED THAT
RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS AT LESS THAN 3 INCHES...BUT WILL EXPAND THE AREAL
EXTENT TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS COMPLICATE THE FORECAST AND ANY POTENTIAL
HIGHLIGHTS. THE MODELS MAINTAIN H85 WINDS OF 55-65KTS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS ARE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND POINTS
EAST...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ANYWHERE
FROM 40-50KTS AT H85. WIND SPEEDS WERE RAMPED UP IN THE FORECAST
LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY...AND SEE NO REASON TO NOT PUSH
SPEEDS UP A FEW ADDITIONAL MPH TONIGHT. GUSTS OF 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS. IF SNOW IS REALIZED...A DRIVING SNOWFALL
WILL BE ANTICIPATED...BUT DRIFTING AND ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS IS
VISIBILITY WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO THE WARM SFC T/S.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEYOND 12Z THURSDAY. TRANSITORY
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE
INTENSE UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER
THE RIDGE WILL NOT LAST AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS. THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO TRAVEL BACK ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY...LEADING TO CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND
20S FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
AS THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINING ABSENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015
THE LATEST RAP MODEL OUTPUT IS PINNING FOG BETWEEN KOGA AND KIML
09Z-15Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THEN THE NAM
SOLN. ANYWHERE ACROSS SWRN NEB WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT...LESS
THAN 5 KTS...INCLUDING KLBF ARE CANDIDATES FOR FOG.
VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1124 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015
ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z MSL DATA CONTINUED SHOWING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN WYOMING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING CAUSES DECOUPLING FROM THE SURFACE. WITH THE CLEAR SKY AND
DEWPOINTS INCREASING ON THE SOUTH WIND...AREAS OF FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT TO MID MORNING MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
IN THE MID RANGE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LEADING
TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS THIS
MORNING PUSH A NICE TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR STRATUS TUESDAY
MORNING. THE CURRENT GRIDS DO HAVE A MENTION OF INCREASED CLOUD
COVER LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL LEFT UNTOUCHED
FROM THE PVS FCST. ON TUESDAY...SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H85 TEMPS TUES AFTN WILL
REACH 10 TO 13C WHICH IS AN INCREASE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST. THE
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED HIGHER AS WELL AND HAVE INCREASED HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
EXIT THE ROCKIES...WITH LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF OVER NWRN KS BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF TDY HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH
THE H5 LOW...HOWEVER THE GFS AND NAM SOLNS THIS MORNING WERE
NEARLY IDENTICAL IN THE H5 LOWS POSN AT 12Z WEDS. EVEN
COMPROMISING BETWEEN THE THREE SOLNS...A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
POP FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LIKELY POPS IN PLACE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CONSTANT WITH THE MID WEEK
FORECAST IS WIND POTENTIAL WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN OVER NORTHERN KS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN KS INTO SERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS.
THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM12 FROM THIS MORNING DEVELOP A SWATH OF 50+
KT H85 WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
60+ KT WINDS INDICATED IN THE ECMWF AND THE NAM12 SOLNS. WITH
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON WIND SPEEDS WEDS AFTN...DECIDED TO RAMP
UP WIND SPEEDS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MONITOR THIS AS A WIND
WARNING HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDS
AFTN. THE QPF FCST WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE.
THE MODELS DEVELOP TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
FIRST IS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN
CWA...WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPING CONDITIONS ARE MOST
FAVORABLE. THE SECOND DEVELOPS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDS
AFTERNOON IN A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE EXITING LOW. BOTH THESE AREAS QPF/S WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ITS IMPACTS ON MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THIS REASON...THE NAM12 SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH ITS QPF FORECAST IN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE
OPTED FOR THE LIGHTER QPF/S IN THE GFS SOLN. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN
PCPN LIES WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN WEDNESDAY AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST QPF`S FCSTD WITH THIS SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FINALLY...THE PTYPE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISCONECTED TO THE NRN STREAM...SO
ARCTIC AIR AND THE THREAT FOR RESULTANT SNOWFALL APPEARS LIMITED
ATTM. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM12 SOLNS THIS MORNING. THE NAM12
CONTINUES TO BE COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS. THE
NAM SUPPORTS SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE AND WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT SPREADING EAST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDING
DATA...EVEN THE COOLER NAM SOLN KEEPS SFC WET BULB ZERO TEMPS AND
NEAR SURFACE TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...WHILE THE GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE MID 30S WEDS AM. EVEN WITH THE COOLER NAM
SOLN...THERE IS A TIGHT WINDOW WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW...SO HAVE LIMITED ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...AND
KEPT THEM IN THE PANHANDLE...WESTERN SANDHILLS AND FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA. ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...HELD ONTO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AS BL TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 33 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE
WEDS AM. FURTHER EAST...TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S WEDS
AM WITH FCST HIGHS AROUND 40 WEDS AFTERNOON...SO AN ALL RAIN FCST
WILL BE RETAINED. THAT BEING SAID...WITH WINDS FORECAST AS STRONG
AS THEY ARE AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW IN THE WEST...WE MAY SEE SOME
SHORT DURATION WINTER STORM LIKE IMPACTS IN THE FAR SW AND WEST
FOR A 3 TO 6 HR WINDOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING HRS
ON WEDNESDAY. SINCE THERE IS STILL A BUNCH OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE AMOUNT OF QPF...TIME OF DAY BEING THE MORNING COMMUTE...AND
LOCATION OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WILL SEND OUT AN SPS
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE HIGHLIGHTING THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM AND THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITH IT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BEYOND THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SECOND SHOT OF STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HIGHS WILL STILL REACH
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. BEYOND THURSDAY...A ZONAL
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...TRANSITIONING EAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015
THE LATEST RAP MODEL OUTPUT IS PINNING FOG BETWEEN KOGA AND KIML
09Z-15Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THEN THE NAM
SOLN. ANYWHERE ACROSS SWRN NEB WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT...LESS
THAN 5 KTS...INCLUDING KLBF ARE CANDIDATES FOR FOG.
VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
812 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING
RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME CLEARING OCCURRING
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE AREA... THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
8 PM UPDATE...
OVERALL FORCAST IN GOOD SHAPE. PER THE LATEST HRRR AND RADAR
TRENDS, I DID INCREASE AND HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS (NEAR 100%
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT A GRADUAL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
IS EXPECTED BUT RAIN DOES LINGER FOR QUITE AWHILE EAST OF I-81. I
ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG, WITH A FOCUS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE
1600 FEET. WITH CIGS FALLING OVERNIGHT AND RAIN, FOG SEEMS LIKE A
GOOD BET. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN COVERING MOST OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA IS MOSTLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SO FAR... EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF STEUBEN COUNTY WHERE UP TO 0.75 INCHES IS ESTIMATED.
OBSERVATIONS OVER STEUBEN COUNTY ARE NOT INDICATING ANY TOTALS
OVER HALF AN INCH.
WV SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR MOSAICS ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT
THE RAIN HAS BECOME SPOTTIER AND LIGHTER SOUTH OF I-80 IN
PENNSYLVANIA. DON`T EXPECT THIS DRY SLOT TO MAKE MUCH MORE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PA TONIGHT. STEADIEST RAINS THIS
EVENING WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA THROUGH CENTRAL NY WITH
SPOTTIER RAIN TO THE SOUTH... ALTHOUGH EVEN DOWN ALONG I-80 EXPECT
THAT THE RAIN WILL TEND TO FILL IN AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.
POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CATEGORICAL... ABOVE 80 PERCENT
FOR MOST OF THE AREA... EXCEPT AROUND 60-70 PERCENT FOR THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG I-80. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY 0.50 TO 1.00
INCHES WITH PWAT VALUES OF JUST OVER AN INCH BEING FORCED TO THE
NORTHWEST BY A 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE
TONIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST PA. SOME
CLEARING WILL PROBABLY OCCUR IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SPREADING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE MID-LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM WITH NY/PA IN
THE LEFT EXIT OF A STRONG UPPER JET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE STRONGER THAN WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM WITH
40 TO 45 KTS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER MOISTURE VALUES WILL
BE LESS WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTING TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH. VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLY ACCOMPANYING ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHWOERS ENDING BUT CLOUDS LINGERING IN WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY/PA LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC/SUPERBLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A POWERFUL UL LOW ROTATING ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED OVER NY/PA, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FALL AS RAIN, THOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MIX IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND IN THE
COOLER REGIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY SUNDAY, THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
HEIGHTS OVER NY/PA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
WARMER THAN NORMAL START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH ACROSS ALL
TERMINAL SITES IN CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. MOST OF THE
TERMINALS WERE MVFR IN RAIN AND BR WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS WERE MAINLY ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES. KBGM BEING A HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINAL ALSO WAS VLIFR AT
TIMES IN CIG. THERE WAS STILL RAIN FROM VFR CIGS OVER RME AND
SYR. MODELS ALL INDICATE WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE
HEAVIER RAIN WILL SHIFT E AND NE ACROSS BGM/AVP/RME BTWN 3Z AND
7Z WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS. LOOKS LIKE MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR AT
TIMES WITH THIS HEAVIER RAIN. AFTER 7Z I SEE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
DRIZZLE AND FOG...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN TAFS LIKE BGM AND ITH
WHICH LIKELY WILL BE CLOSE TO MINIMUMS. REST OF TAFS FROM 7-8Z
AND 13-14Z SHOULD BE MVFR CIG WHICH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WED. AT BGM AND ITH I SEE IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR/VFR
LATER IN THE DAY UNDER OVC SKIES.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO LIGHT WEST WED.
.OUTLOOK...
WED NGT... MAINLY VFR.
THU... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL.
SUN...VFR
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
656 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LINGERING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING STRONG
WINDS AND MORE RAIN. THE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS LIKELY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 630 PM...THINGS ARE PRETTY MUCH PLAYING OUT AS PLANNED WITH A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...WITH THE THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE END OF THIS
CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON RADAR...JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS IS WELL CAPTURED BY MOST GUIDANCE...WITH
LIFT PRIMARILY COMING FROM THE UPPER LEVELS FROM A DIVERGENT
PATTERN AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING TAPERING TO LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS THE ADDITION OF FOG WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A LIGHT FLOW THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE
THAT CLOUDS WILL ESSENTIALLY LOWER TO THE GROUND IN UPSLOPE
REGIONS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. THIS IS SHOWN BY THE HRRR AND
SUPPORTED BY NAM BUFKIT GUIDANCE...HOWEVER IT IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE IF IT WILL BE FOGGY OR IF THERE WILL BE JUST LOW
CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 40S WITH A DEVELOPING
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER UNDER THE
TROUGH.
ON WEDNESDAY... SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION QUICKLY BUILD
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING BEHIND THE
EXITING SURFACE LOW WILL HELP TO LINGER SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AND A WARM FRONT
CATCHES UP TO THIS FEATURE... EXPECT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER BUT WITH
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BECOMING VERY LIGHT OR EVEN TURNING TO JUST
AREAS OF SPRINKLES BY THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WILL
OCCUR VERY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING... WITH MUCH OF THE DAY
OVERCAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN INT THE LOW TO MID 50S AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL INVOKE A CYCLOGENESIS EVENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODELS CONTINUING IN
AGREEMENT SHOWING A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO APPROXIMATELY
984 MB AS IT LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THEN MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH UNTIL IT ENTERS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT REMAINS THE HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE DOUBLE COLD FRONT
STRUCTURE TO WORK THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY. THE FIRST
SOMETIME AROUND MID DAY...WITH THE SECOND COMING QUICKLY ON THE
HEELS OF THE FIRST...SOMETIME AROUND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH THE INITIAL FRONT FOLLOWED BY A
DRY SLOT BRINGING A TEMPORARY DIMINISHING TREND TO THE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FILLS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES SHOWING
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LATER VERY NEAR 850 MB IF NOT A BIT ABOVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AT THIS LEVEL BETWEEN 45 AND 50 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
EXPECT STRONG MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IT CERTAINLY
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT WE COULD MIX THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
BY FRIDAY...THE DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL BE INTO QUEBEC MAINTAINING A
DEEP MOISTURE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE AMOUNT OF
LOW/MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO AROUND -4C. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO RAMP UP BANDS
OF LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ON A WEST SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY BY
FRIDAY MORNING. DIURNAL CYCLE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS RAIN...BUT COMBINATION OF ELEVATION AND DYNAMIC
COOLING COULD EASILY BRING MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN POSSIBLY ALL SNOW
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEP MIXING WILL BE MAINTAINED FRIDAY WITH A
CONTINUED RISK FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
REMAINING AROUND 50 KNOTS.
LAKE-ENHANCED PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. THE POTENTIAL
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AS 850
MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -6C WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE ELEVATION-DEPENDENT WITH AN INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR A POSSIBLE
SNEAKY MODERATE SNOW EVENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES AND LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
BY TUESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING A WARMER AND MORE HUMID FLOW TO THE REGION. FOR
NOW WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AS GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER ON SPEED OF A POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE PUSHING TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY AN GREAT LAKES AMID A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. BETTER FORCING
LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT PRIMARILY IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE
LAKES...INCLUDING THE BUF/IAG/ROC/JHW TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT WHEN RAIN TAPERS OFF...BUT MOS/HRRR GUIDANCE IS
PESSIMISTIC AND SO ARE UPSTREAM OBS. AFTER THIS THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR EVEN LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME FAIRLY DENSE FOG
IN SPOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SO ANY MOISTURE WILL ESSENTIALLY BE
LEFT IN PLACE WITH VSBY LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 1SM IN SPOTS.
DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL HAPPEN IS TRICKY...BUT WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SW BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z AT BUF/IAG/JHW AND THIS
MAY PROVIDE SUBTLE MIXING NEEDED FOR THE FOG TO THICKEN.
ON WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN WITH CIGS/VSBY
LIKELY TO IMPROVE SLOWLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ANY WILL
BE LIGHT WITH FOG/LOW CIGS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WINDY.
SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVES AROUND 3 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
AS WINDS DIMINISH. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL RELAX ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES COULD REACH GALE STRENGTH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
PROMOTING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. A GALE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF GALE FORCE WINDS
WITH THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NYZ004>008-014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
LEZ040-041.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR LEZ020.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR LOZ042-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
650 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT UP TO THREE
TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BRIEFLY COOLER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TRENDING WARMER AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 632 PM EST TUESDAY...LATEST WRF/HRRR DATA, AND TO A LARGE
EXTENT THE 18 UTC GFS SUGGEST INTERMITTENT/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
WILL MAKE STEADY INROADS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY,
MAINLY FROM THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK EASTWARD. THE 22 UTC RAP A BIT FURTHER EAST. HAVE THUS RAISED
POPS UPWARD INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY, THOUGH LARGELY LEFT OUR CURRENT LIGHT QPF VALUES
UNCHANGED. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO ARRIVE IN OUR SOUTHERN VERMONT
COUNTIES BY MID EVENING, THEN PROGRESS INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN NY
AND NORTHERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK
SHOWING VALUES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 36 TO 43 RANGE BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 339 PM EST TUESDAY...
A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. 700MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND 500-300MB PV MAX CENTERED ACROSS NERN OHIO AND WRN PA
AT 20Z WILL SHIFT ENEWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NEW YORK
AND SRN ENGLAND TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SFC LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. THIS BRINGS BEST LOW-LEVEL WAA AND PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT APPEARS
WE/LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE WITH WEAKENING MID- LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO...AXIS OF 850-700MB
DEFORMATION DOES BRIEFLY PIVOT NWD INTO (MAINLY) SRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY FROM 06Z-15Z
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE HEAVIEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES (0.30-0.35") WITH AMTS TAPERING OFF TO AROUND 0.10"
AROUND BTV AND <0.10" ALONG THE INTL BORDER. AGAIN...BEST
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY 06-15Z WED BEFORE 700MB TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. SHOULD SEE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTN. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT THIS AFTN WITH
HIGHS 55-60F. CLOUDS WILL LESSEN RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS 39-44F MOST SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID 30S
ACROSS VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM. FOR WEDNESDAY...LOW
CLOUDS/MORNING RAIN WILL BRING SMALL DIURNAL RANGE AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER CONDITIONS AS COMPARED TO THE PAST 2 DAYS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE UPR 40S EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS...AND GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WWD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER LOW DEPARTS WELL
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION WITH STRATUS LAYER IN PLACE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 39-45F WEST OF
THE GREENS AND MID 30S GENERALLY EAST OF THE GREENS.
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SWLY FLOW SHIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND THEN REMAINS TO
OUR WEST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR A BAND OF
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH BEST QG FORCING THURSDAY AFTN SHIFTING
ENEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH PRECIPITATION AMTS GENERALLY
0.20" - 0.40". POPS GENERALLY INCREASE TO 70-85% DURING THURSDAY
AFTN. SWLY FLOW OF 40- 50 KTS AT 4-5KFT AGL MAY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
PRECIP TOTALS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL...GENERALLY MID 50S FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD...AND UPR
40S EAST OF THE GREENS. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE MODERATE WIND
SPEEDS....SOUTH WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN GENERALLY SWLY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
STRONGEST ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 15-25 MPH. SOME
CONTINUED GUSTS TO 35 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG GRADIENT FLOW. QUESTION WILL BE
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MIXING AND LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD TO DETERMINE EXTENT OF GUSTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EST TUESDAY...A BRIEF RETURN TO SEASONABLE NOVEMBER
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A WELL DEVELOPED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
FRIDAY WITH EXCELLENT DYNAMICS TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GUSTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOMEWHAT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT WIND WILL DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS IT
DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL 700 MB TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST. WITH GOOD
MOISTURE STILL OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ANTICIPATE VERY GOOD UPSLOPE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY UNDER A 530 DAM 1000-500MB
THICKNESS. GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS UNBLOCKED FLOW SO THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF SNOWFALL SHOULD FALL IN THE HIGH PEAKS REGION OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE MOST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT SHOULD
LIKELY SEE SNOW WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SEEING MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DRY AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE RIDGING WILL END MOST OF THE RAIN/SNOW
THREAT. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHAT HAPPENS
AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT WE WILL
RETURN TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED TO
BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR ARE FORECAST AT SLK/MSS.
LOWER MVFR STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT MSS WILL SCATTER AND
MOVE OUT BY 03Z OR SO THIS EVENING...LEAVING VARYING LEVELS OF
VFR CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WILL SEE AREAS OF RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION...MOSTLY AFFECTING
BTV/MPV/RUT. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT...SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED. SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY APPROACH RUT BUT HAVE KEPT IT OUT FOR
NOW. RAIN SHOWERS WILL END BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF
LOWER STRATUS (MVFR) IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING MSS BY
20Z AND SLK BY 22Z. WINDS LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
00Z THU - 12Z THU...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z THU - 12Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE.
12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.
00Z SUN ONWARD...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
RUTLAND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AWOS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNAVAILABLE.
FAA TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. WE DO NOT HAVE ANY
ESTIMATE ON WHEN DATA WILL BECOME AVAILABLE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...BTV STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
632 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT UP TO THREE
TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BRIEFLY COOLER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TRENDING WARMER AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 632 PM EST TUESDAY...LATEST WRF/HRRR DATA, AND TO A LARGE
EXTENT THE 18 UTC GFS SUGGEST INTERMITTENT/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
WILL MAKE STEADY INROADS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY,
MAINLY FROM THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK EASTWARD. THE 22 UTC RAP A BIT FURTHER EAST. HAVE THUS RAISED
POPS UPWARD INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY, THOUGH LARGELY LEFT OUR CURRENT LIGHT QPF VALUES
UNCHANGED. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO ARRIVE IN OUR SOUTHERN VERMONT
COUNTIES BY MID EVENING, THEN PROGRESS INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN NY
AND NORTHERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK
SHOWING VALUES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 36 TO 43 RANGE BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 339 PM EST TUESDAY...
A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. 700MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND 500-300MB PV MAX CENTERED ACROSS NERN OHIO AND WRN PA
AT 20Z WILL SHIFT ENEWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NEW YORK
AND SRN ENGLAND TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SFC LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. THIS BRINGS BEST LOW-LEVEL WAA AND PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT APPEARS
WE/LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE WITH WEAKENING MID- LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO...AXIS OF 850-700MB
DEFORMATION DOES BRIEFLY PIVOT NWD INTO (MAINLY) SRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY FROM 06Z-15Z
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE HEAVIEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES (0.30-0.35") WITH AMTS TAPERING OFF TO AROUND 0.10"
AROUND BTV AND <0.10" ALONG THE INTL BORDER. AGAIN...BEST
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY 06-15Z WED BEFORE 700MB TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. SHOULD SEE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTN. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT THIS AFTN WITH
HIGHS 55-60F. CLOUDS WILL LESSEN RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS 39-44F MOST SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID 30S
ACROSS VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM. FOR WEDNESDAY...LOW
CLOUDS/MORNING RAIN WILL BRING SMALL DIURNAL RANGE AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER CONDITIONS AS COMPARED TO THE PAST 2 DAYS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE UPR 40S EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS...AND GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WWD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER LOW DEPARTS WELL
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION WITH STRATUS LAYER IN PLACE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 39-45F WEST OF
THE GREENS AND MID 30S GENERALLY EAST OF THE GREENS.
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SWLY FLOW SHIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND THEN REMAINS TO
OUR WEST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR A BAND OF
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH BEST QG FORCING THURSDAY AFTN SHIFTING
ENEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH PRECIPITATION AMTS GENERALLY
0.20" - 0.40". POPS GENERALLY INCREASE TO 70-85% DURING THURSDAY
AFTN. SWLY FLOW OF 40- 50 KTS AT 4-5KFT AGL MAY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
PRECIP TOTALS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL...GENERALLY MID 50S FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD...AND UPR
40S EAST OF THE GREENS. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE MODERATE WIND
SPEEDS....SOUTH WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN GENERALLY SWLY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
STRONGEST ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 15-25 MPH. SOME
CONTINUED GUSTS TO 35 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG GRADIENT FLOW. QUESTION WILL BE
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MIXING AND LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD TO DETERMINE EXTENT OF GUSTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EST TUESDAY...A BRIEF RETURN TO SEASONABLE NOVEMBER
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A WELL DEVELOPED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
FRIDAY WITH EXCELLENT DYNAMICS TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GUSTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOMEWHAT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT WIND WILL DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS IT
DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL 700 MB TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST. WITH GOOD
MOISTURE STILL OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ANTICIPATE VERY GOOD UPSLOPE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY UNDER A 530 DAM 1000-500MB
THICKNESS. GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS UNBLOCKED FLOW SO THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF SNOWFALL SHOULD FALL IN THE HIGH PEAKS REGION OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE MOST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT SHOULD
LIKELY SEE SNOW WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SEEING MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DRY AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE RIDGING WILL END MOST OF THE RAIN/SNOW
THREAT. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHAT HAPPENS
AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT WE WILL
RETURN TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED TO
BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT SLK WHERE CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR. INCREASING CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWERING TO MVFR AFTER 06Z.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALSO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 00Z,
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO KRUT AFTER 04Z. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10KTS, AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED - 00Z THU...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS.
00Z THU - 12Z THU...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z THU - 00Z SAT...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
00Z SAT - 18Z SUN...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
RUTLAND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AWOS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNAVAILABLE.
FAA TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. WE DO NOT HAVE ANY
ESTIMATE ON WHEN DATA WILL BECOME AVAILABLE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...BTV STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1212 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY TO THE
REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL
SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS INVERSION HAS BROKEN AND
HOURLY TRENDS WERE SURGING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED UNDER FULL SUN AND
MODERATING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE WORKED THESE ISSUES THROUGH
USING THE HRRR MESOSCALE DATA...WHICH HAS ALSO BUMPED THE MAX
TEMPS UP TO THE MID-UPR 50S. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY AND BRING
THE AREA A MODERATING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAXES RANGING IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF IN THE MID WEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z TUE THEN INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUE TO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z WED. AS THIS OCCURS SFC LOW
PRES WILL LIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT THEN TO
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MUCH OF THE RAINFALL FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE FA WITH ACTIVITY HERE BEING FORCED
PRIMARILY BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. TREND HAS ALSO BEEN TO SLOW
THE ONSET OF RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER NE PA AND THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE OCCURRING EVERYWHERE. LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TOTAL PRECIP FOR THE REGION WILL
RANGE FROM A HALF INCH IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER.
WEDNESDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EAST OF I81. BY
AFTERNOON SFC HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY AND MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
THE FAR WESTERN CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WESTERN RIDGE - EASTERN TROF
PATTERN, AS A POWERFUL CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS LOWER ONTARIO AND
DRAGS COOL AIR INTO WESTERN NY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING VERY LITTLE AS IT SITS AND SPINS ALONG THE
ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. WE EXPECT SOME MINOR PRECIPITATION
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FALL AS RAIN, THOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MIX IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND IN THE
COOLER REGIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY, THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
HEIGHTS OVER NY/PA.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO
THE TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING, BETWEEN 9Z AND 14Z. CEILINGS WILL
FALL TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 3500 FEET, WITH MINOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS OF 4SM TO 6SM. ON THE BGM HILL, IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING.
LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TOWARD SUNRISE.
.OUTLOOK...
TUE AFT-TUE NGT... RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AREA-WIDE IN RAIN.
WED-WED NGT... MAINLY VFR.
THU... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...JAB/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1107 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY TO THE
REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL
SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS INVERSION HAS BROKEN AND
HOURLY TRENDS WERE SURGING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED UNDER FULL SUN AND
MODERATING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE WORKED THESE ISSUES THROUGH
USING THE HRRR MESOSCALE DATA...WHICH HAS ALSO BUMPED THE MAX
TEMPS UP TO THE MID-UPR 50S. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY AND BRING
THE AREA A MODERATING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAXES RANGING IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF IN THE MID WEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z TUE THEN INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUE TO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z WED. AS THIS OCCURS SFC LOW
PRES WILL LIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT THEN TO
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MUCH OF THE RAINFALL FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE FA WITH ACTIVITY HERE BEING FORCED
PRIMARILY BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. TREND HAS ALSO BEEN TO SLOW
THE ONSET OF RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER NE PA AND THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE OCCURRING EVERYWHERE. LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TOTAL PRECIP FOR THE REGION WILL
RANGE FROM A HALF INCH IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER.
WEDNESDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EAST OF I81. BY
AFTERNOON SFC HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY AND MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
THE FAR WESTERN CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WESTERN RIDGE - EASTERN TROF
PATTERN, AS A POWERFUL CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS LOWER ONTARIO AND
DRAGS COOL AIR INTO WESTERN NY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING VERY LITTLE AS IT SITS AND SPINS ALONG THE
ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. WE EXPECT SOME MINOR PRECIPITATION
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FALL AS RAIN, THOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MIX IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND IN THE
COOLER REGIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY, THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
HEIGHTS OVER NY/PA.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS COMING IN LATE EVE FROM THE S. LOW END VFR TOWARD
12Z TUESDAY WITH RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
ONLY QUESTION WAS FOG AT KELM. IFR CIGS STARTED AROUND 10Z AND
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 13 OR MAYBE 14Z. SATELLITE AND OBS NOT
SHOWING THAT IS WIDESPREAD AND ONLY IN THE LARGER RIVER VALLEYS.
WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING. FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT TO CALM
AND MAINLY EAST.
.OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUE NGT... RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AREAWIDE IN RAIN.
WED-WED NGT... MAINLY VFR.
THU... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...JAB/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1024 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY TO THE
REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL
SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS INVERSION HAS BROKEN AND
HOURLY TRENDS WERE SURGING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED UNDER FULL SUN AND
MODERATING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE WORKED THESE ISSUES THROUGH
USING THE HRRR MESOSCALE DATA...WHICH HAS ALSO BUMPED THE MAX
TEMPS UP TO THE MID-UPR 50S. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY AND BRING
THE AREA A MODERATING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAXES RANGING IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF IN THE MID WEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z TUE THEN INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUE TO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z WED. AS THIS OCCURS SFC LOW
PRES WILL LIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT THEN TO
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MUCH OF THE RAINFALL FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE FA WITH ACTIVITY HERE BEING FORCED
PRIMARILY BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. TREND HAS ALSO BEEN TO SLOW
THE ONSET OF RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER NE PA AND THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE OCCURRING EVERYWHERE. LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TOTAL PRECIP FOR THE REGION WILL
RANGE FROM A HALF INCH IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER.
WEDNESDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EAST OF I81. BY
AFTERNOON SFC HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY AND MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
THE FAR WESTERN CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM. MODELS VERY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER
AND PREVIOUS RUNS. UNSETTLED AND BECOMING COOLER WITH MORE PRECIP
IN NY THAN PA. THURSDAY LEFT POPS HIGH LIKELY BUT CAT ON SOME
MODELS. ALSO FRIDAY TO SAT NGT NORTHERN ONEIDA HAS ONLY CHC POPS
BUT THAT COULD BE HIGHER WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW AND LAKE MOISTURE
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO THE TUG.
1 PM SUNDAY UPDATE... A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD APPEARS TO BE IN
STORE, WITH SHOWERY/MILD CONDITIONS TO START OFF THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY CHILLIER TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TRANSLATES THROUGH THE FLOW, AND AFFECTS THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THURSDAY, READINGS WILL
BE BACK MAINLY IN THE 40S FROM FRIDAY-SUNDAY. A COMBINATION OF
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT, COULD ALSO BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BY DAY, AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS COMING IN LATE EVE FROM THE S. LOW END VFR TOWARD
12Z TUESDAY WITH RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
ONLY QUESTION WAS FOG AT KELM. IFR CIGS STARTED AROUND 10Z AND
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 13 OR MAYBE 14Z. SATELLITE AND OBS NOT
SHOWING THAT IS WIDESPREAD AND ONLY IN THE LARGER RIVER VALLEYS.
WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING. FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT TO CALM
AND MAINLY EAST.
.OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUE NGT... RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AREAWIDE IN RAIN.
WED-WED NGT... MAINLY VFR.
THU... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...JAB/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1043 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUE...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING. THE FEW REMAINING CLOUDS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP SOME AS CAA RAMPS UP ALLOWING THE FOG FROM EARLIER THIS
EVENING TO DISSIPATE. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
MID/UPPER 50S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED ACROSS ENC WED AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...SUNNY
SKIES AND WNW FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS 65-70 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A MAINLY DRY AND
COOL PERIOD AS THE WEATHER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PRODUCING A NW FLOW OF COOL DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
THURSDAY AS SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT HELPS TO
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING SO WILL TREND FORECAST DRY THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG BUT MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS
FORECAST TO PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NW FLOW WITH COOL/DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 70S HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
DECREASE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
EASTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS VERY DRY AND EXPECT MAINLY
CLR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S THEN AROUND 60 ON SUNDAY. MIN TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DROP
DOWN TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S INLAND SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY
FROST POSSIBLE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
CAROLINAS BY MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW OF
WARMER AND PROBABLY INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND BEYOND. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN IS UNCERTAIN BUT IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING LIKE A WARM BUT
UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST
TO MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUE...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE.
LIGHT NW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS CAA RAMPS UP WHICH HAS ALLOWED
THE FOG TO DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NW WINDS MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KT. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT
AROUND MID MORNING WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREDOMINATE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FAST MOVING AND MAINLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THU AND EXPECTING INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH VFR BASES. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRI
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUE...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. BUOYS STILL REPORTING W/NW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT
AND SEAS AROUND 4-6 FT. THE NW SURGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUNDS/ALLIGATOR RIVER
HAVE DROPPED BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE
IN WIND SPEED LATER THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE 00Z GEM
AND RUC MODELS...WHICH EARLIER RUNS OF THESE MODELS VERIFIED WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUNDS BEST THIS EVENING...NOW KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND DECIDED TO DROP THE SCA HERE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WED AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS. NW WINDS 10-20KT EARLY DIMINISHING TO
5-15KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6 FT ACROSS
ALL COASTAL WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. SW
WINDS WILL BE RAMPING UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT AND COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20 TO 25 KT AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED AS THE FRONT COMES THRU LATE THU CONTINUING INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. W/NW WINDS WILL AGAIN BE INCREASING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AGAIN
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER NW FLOW 10 TO 15 KT WILL BE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/SK/BM
MARINE...JME/SK/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
942 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...LATEST WIND DIRECTIONS SHOW THE SECONDARY
FRONT IS THROUGH HICKORY...GREENSBORO...BURLINGTON AND LOUISBURG
NC WHERE WINDS ARE NOW NORTHWEST. A LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WIND STILL
EXISTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NC AND
ALL OF SC. THIS ARGUES AGAINST THE FASTER GFS TIMING WITH THE
SURGE/SECONDARY FRONT OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED FOG COULD STILL DEVELOP
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A BIT MORE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAN I
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS FROM
CLOSING UP IN MOST LOCATIONS. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
LATE-EVENING UPDATE WERE MINOR. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...
LIGHT WINDS AND ABOUT 1500 FEET OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE THIS EVENING
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
A SURGE LINE/SECONDARY FRONT MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF VIRGINIA AND
INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA NOW WILL CLEAR OUT THIS MOISTURE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL END ANY
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND BRING IN COOLER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST SPOTS INLAND FROM THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AND YES THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION. MAINLY WESTERLY-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SHIFT
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING NO
LIFT OVER OUR AREA DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL DROP WELL BELOW 1 INCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE OF PW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALSO...THE 15 UTC SREF IS SHOWING A 0% POP
GREATER THAN 0.01 OF AN INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 70 ON VETERANS DAY
AND WARMING UP INTO THE MIDDLE 70S WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 47 TO 52 ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 48 TO 54 ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AND NO RAINFALL FORECAST.
ONE LAST NORMAL-TO-ABOVE-NORMAL DAY FRIDAY AS WESTERLY WIND AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE CREATES DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WHILE ALSO
DRYING THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE FULL SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR MID-NOVEMBER. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF
COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A STRONG VORTICITY IMPULSE
MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND 3C BY SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP...SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE MARKEDLY COLDER THAN MUCH OF NOVEMBER SO
FAR...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STRUGGLING JUST INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS PERIOD AS
THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD...AND FROST MAY BE A CONCERN SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUNSHINE WILL DOMINATE THE WKND EVEN WITH THESE COLD TEMPS
HOWEVER.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE
RIDGING BLOSSOMS ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A SLOW RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT AT THE SAME TIME CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE
GULF COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STRATOCU DECK HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EXCEPT FOR ILM. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME BRIEF FOG EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AFTER 04Z...DRYER NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMMENCE...MIXING ANY FOG OUT. VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE MVFR VSBYS IN BR THURSDAY. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING MORE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THAN WHAT THE
GFS MODEL HAD INDICATED...AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM...HRRR...AND RUC MODELS. THIS
MEANS THE ONSET OF A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION WILL BE DELAYED
BY A FEW MORE HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS AT THE BEACHES ARE BARELY 10
KNOTS...HOWEVER OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY GUSTS HAVE
REACHED 19 KNOTS IN THE PAST HOUR. ACROSS THE 0-20 MILE EXTEND OF
THE COASTAL WATERS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INDICATE A MORE WESTERLY
WIND DIRECTION THIS EVENING SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
A SURGE LINE/SECONDARY FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OUT ACROSS THE WATERS.
SEAS ARE ALSO RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST WITH SOME MINOR
REDUCTIONS MADE NEAR CAPE FEAR.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AS A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20 KT AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE FROM 3 TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEAS WILL AGAIN BUILD
THURSDAY AND SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT WITH AN OCCASIONAL 5
FOOTER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS PERIOD...BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. NW WINDS FRIDAY OF 10-15 KTS WILL RISE
QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT ON A SURGE OF COLD AIR...TURNING TO THE NORTH
AT 20-25 KTS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT UP TO 3-5 FT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY
OVERHEAD...CAUSING WINDS TO FALL TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY AND THEN
5-10 KTS SUNDAY...ALL FROM THE W/NW. THESE LIGHTER WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO FALL SLOWLY AS WELL...BECOMING 1-2 FT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
210 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATER TODAY... AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 925 AM MONDAY...
PRIMARY CHANGES THIS MORNING DEAL WITH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP
TRENDS. BAND OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NC IS BEING DRIVEN
BY A SHOT OF STRONG MOIST UPGLIDE ATTENDING A LOBE OF MID LEVEL
VORTICITY TRANSLATING TO THE NNE THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THIS LATTER
FEATURES PIVOTS TO OUR NORTH... MODELS DEPICT SOME DRYING ALOFT
ABOVE 0C WHICH SHOULD LESSEN PRECIP INTENSITY... ALTHOUGH THE MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG
WELL INTO TONIGHT... THUS THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN HIGH. SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED BATCHES OF CONVECTION OVER NRN
FL (NE OF THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE) AND OFF THE SC
COAST ARE LIKELY TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST INTO EARLY EVENING...
AS WE`RE LACKING A MECHANISM FOR THE COASTAL FRONT TO PUSH WELL
WESTWARD UNTIL PERHAPS LATER TONIGHT... GIVEN THAT THE WEDGE REGIME
IS QUITE ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL NC. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... SHOWING A VERY
SLOW RISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD... GREATER EAST OF THE I-95 THAN
ELSEWHERE AS THE STABLE POOL DEPTH SHOULD BE DECREASING ALONG ITS
EDGE. THIS TRANSLATES INTO "HIGHS" TODAY OF 46-66 AND "LOWS" TONIGHT
OF 45-64. WILL WAIT UNTIL A THOROUGH LOOK AT MORNING GUIDANCE BEFORE
ADJUSTING TONIGHT`S FORECAST ANY FURTHER... AS THE TRACK OF ANY
SURFACE LOW OVER ERN NC WILL IMPACT NOT ONLY TEMPS BUT HOW MUCH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED IN OUR FAR ERN COUNTIES
(CURRENTLY A FAIRLY LOW POTENTIAL). EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 0.75" TO 1.5"... HIGHEST IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 315 AM:
AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE
SOUTH. GOOD DIFFLUENCE IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND
THE GFS FORECASTS GOOD LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST HRRR WRF
GUIDANCE SHOWS RESULTS LIKE THE MOIST GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...
BASICALLY AREAS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL FOLLOW THE
METEOROLOGY AND THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST THE OLD CCF PLUS POPS FOR
TODAY.
ONE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH WILL TEMPERATURES RISE...IF AT
ALL. TO START THE NIGHT...SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AS LOW AS THE MID
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THOSE
DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S ALMOST ENTIRELY ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THE GFS AND THE LATEST ECMWF KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE PRECIPITATION. WHILE
THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO BEAT OF LATE...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS GUIDANCE AND SHOW HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD WITH LITTLE RISE DURING THE DAY
THERE...TO THE MID 50S IN THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 60S LATE IN
THE DAY TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY IN THE RADAR DEPICTION DURING THE DAY...BUT GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE OR WARMER TODAY WITH
MUCAPE IN THE LOWEST 6KM BARELY REGISTERING. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER TODAY IF THE SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES ON THE NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS VERIFY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THERE SHOULD BE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND
25MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 AS WINDS AT 850MB AND
925MB INCREASE BY 18Z TO CLOSE TO 40KT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN
THE DAY. -DJF
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT OVERNIGHT THERE IS SOME TOP-DOWN DRYING
AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST DECENT
DRYING AT AND ABOVE ABOUT 600MB BY 12Z TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS GOOD
UPPER DIFFLUENCE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
70KT 300MB JET NEARBY EARLY TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODEST
850MB CONVERGENCE. THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER MAY BE DRIVEN BY WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MUCAPE TONIGHT
IS FORECAST TO ABOUT 100 TO 200J/KG CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE
BETTER INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LESSER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FORECAST
SOME DRYING BETWEEN 500MB AND 700MB BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BEFORE THE BUFR SOUNDINGS TEND TO MOISTEN SOME BY 03Z
OR SO WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY TOWARD
KRWI AND KFAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA DURING TUESDAY...A GRADUALLY DRIER AIR MASS SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THERE IS
FORECAST AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH SPREADING OVER THE AREA WITH K
INDICES GOING SHARPLY NEGATIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FALL FROM WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY TO LESS THAN AN INCH
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
REMAINING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING
TAKES PLACE. WILL HAVE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 20Z TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER WITH
QPF...AND THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MMEFS QPF IS VERY GOOD...WITH
THE SREF...GEFS AND NAEFS ALL SHOWING VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BASINS FROM JUST OVER AN INCH TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES.
THREE-HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 2.5 INCHES OR GREATER...AND
TWELVE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 3.5 INCHES OR GREATER WITH THE
MMEFS PROBABILITIES OF ANY MAINSTEM RIVER GOING INTO FLOOD BEING
ABOUT TEN PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT...FOR THIS FORECAST DO NOT
PLAN ON ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...THOUGH COULD IMAGINE SOME
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUANCES SHOULD SOME MORE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF HIGHS TODAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THEN
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES...
COOLEST TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER AND WARMEST NEAR INTERSTATE 95.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR AND JUST ENOUGH...EVEN MODEST
STIRRING...TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT NEAR 1000FT THAT FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED...DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIMINISHING MOISTURE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.
POST-FROPA...LOOK FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS. THE AIRMASS
WITH THIS FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL...
WITH THE COOLEST PART OF THIS PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...HIGHS ON SAT IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS SUNDAY MORNING
APPROACHING FREEZING IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS.
MODEL DIFFERENCES REAPPEAR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS
KEEPING US DRY WHILE THE ECMWF QUICKLY ADVECTS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO
OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM MONDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS IN CENTRAL NC. A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION REMAINS IN
PLACE... CONSISTING OF COOL AND STABLE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST NOSING SSW THROUGH CENTRAL/WRN NC... WHILE A
COASTAL WARM FRONT PUSHES VERY SLOWLY WNW-WARD INTO ERN NC. THE WARM
AND MOIST FLOW OF AIR BRINGING ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE
COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
RAIN AND DRIZZLE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY EVENING... WHEN WE`LL START TO
SEE A SLOW TAPERING DOWN TO MOSTLY VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. VSBYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY MVFR OR VFR... HOWEVER WITHIN
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN VSBYS WILL DROP TO IFR OR LIFR FOR USUALLY
AN HOUR OR LESS. CIGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY MOSTLY IFR THROUGH
TONIGHT... THEN LIFT SLOWLY TO MVFR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (15Z-18Z TUE). WHILE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRICTLY MET... THE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NE
COMBINED WITH WINDS FROM THE SE AT 3-5 KFT AND OUT OF THE SW AT 8-10
KFT MAY INDUCE SOME MECHANICAL TURBULENCE... MAKING AIRCRAFT
HANDLING CHALLENGING... PARTICULARLY FOR SMALL CRAFT... THROUGH
TONIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF SOME THUNDER THIS EVENING NEAR FAY... BOTH
OTHERWISE NO LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ANY REMAINING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF TUE WITH VSBYS MOSTLY VFR... ALTHOUGH
CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE. BUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD TREND TO
VFR WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT TUE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL
TO OUR NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY THU... WHEN
A BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
AN INCOMING COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH
SAT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1150 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATER TODAY... AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 925 AM MONDAY...
PRIMARY CHANGES THIS MORNING DEAL WITH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP
TRENDS. BAND OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NC IS BEING DRIVEN
BY A SHOT OF STRONG MOIST UPGLIDE ATTENDING A LOBE OF MID LEVEL
VORTICITY TRANSLATING TO THE NNE THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THIS LATTER
FEATURES PIVOTS TO OUR NORTH... MODELS DEPICT SOME DRYING ALOFT
ABOVE 0C WHICH SHOULD LESSEN PRECIP INTENSITY... ALTHOUGH THE MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG
WELL INTO TONIGHT... THUS THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN HIGH. SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED BATCHES OF CONVECTION OVER NRN
FL (NE OF THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE) AND OFF THE SC
COAST ARE LIKELY TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST INTO EARLY EVENING...
AS WE`RE LACKING A MECHANISM FOR THE COASTAL FRONT TO PUSH WELL
WESTWARD UNTIL PERHAPS LATER TONIGHT... GIVEN THAT THE WEDGE REGIME
IS QUITE ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL NC. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... SHOWING A VERY
SLOW RISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD... GREATER EAST OF THE I-95 THAN
ELSEWHERE AS THE STABLE POOL DEPTH SHOULD BE DECREASING ALONG ITS
EDGE. THIS TRANSLATES INTO "HIGHS" TODAY OF 46-66 AND "LOWS" TONIGHT
OF 45-64. WILL WAIT UNTIL A THOROUGH LOOK AT MORNING GUIDANCE BEFORE
ADJUSTING TONIGHT`S FORECAST ANY FURTHER... AS THE TRACK OF ANY
SURFACE LOW OVER ERN NC WILL IMPACT NOT ONLY TEMPS BUT HOW MUCH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED IN OUR FAR ERN COUNTIES
(CURRENTLY A FAIRLY LOW POTENTIAL). EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 0.75" TO 1.5"... HIGHEST IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 315 AM:
AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE
SOUTH. GOOD DIFFLUENCE IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND
THE GFS FORECASTS GOOD LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST HRRR WRF
GUIDANCE SHOWS RESULTS LIKE THE MOIST GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...
BASICALLY AREAS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL FOLLOW THE
METEOROLOGY AND THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST THE OLD CCF PLUS POPS FOR
TODAY.
ONE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH WILL TEMPERATURES RISE...IF AT
ALL. TO START THE NIGHT...SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AS LOW AS THE MID
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THOSE
DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S ALMOST ENTIRELY ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THE GFS AND THE LATEST ECMWF KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE PRECIPITATION. WHILE
THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO BEAT OF LATE...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS GUIDANCE AND SHOW HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD WITH LITTLE RISE DURING THE DAY
THERE...TO THE MID 50S IN THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 60S LATE IN
THE DAY TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY IN THE RADAR DEPICTION DURING THE DAY...BUT GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE OR WARMER TODAY WITH
MUCAPE IN THE LOWEST 6KM BARELY REGISTERING. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER TODAY IF THE SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES ON THE NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS VERIFY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THERE SHOULD BE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND
25MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 AS WINDS AT 850MB AND
925MB INCREASE BY 18Z TO CLOSE TO 40KT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN
THE DAY. -DJF
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT OVERNIGHT THERE IS SOME TOP-DOWN DRYING
AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST DECENT
DRYING AT AND ABOVE ABOUT 600MB BY 12Z TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS GOOD
UPPER DIFFLUENCE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
70KT 300MB JET NEARBY EARLY TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODEST
850MB CONVERGENCE. THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER MAY BE DRIVEN BY WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MUCAPE TONIGHT
IS FORECAST TO ABOUT 100 TO 200J/KG CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE
BETTER INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LESSER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FORECAST
SOME DRYING BETWEEN 500MB AND 700MB BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BEFORE THE BUFR SOUNDINGS TEND TO MOISTEN SOME BY 03Z
OR SO WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY TOWARD
KRWI AND KFAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA DURING TUESDAY...A GRADUALLY DRIER AIR MASS SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THERE IS
FORECAST AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH SPREADING OVER THE AREA WITH K
INDICES GOING SHARPLY NEGATIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FALL FROM WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY TO LESS THAN AN INCH
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
REMAINING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING
TAKES PLACE. WILL HAVE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 20Z TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER WITH
QPF...AND THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MMEFS QPF IS VERY GOOD...WITH
THE SREF...GEFS AND NAEFS ALL SHOWING VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BASINS FROM JUST OVER AN INCH TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES.
THREE-HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 2.5 INCHES OR GREATER...AND
TWELVE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 3.5 INCHES OR GREATER WITH THE
MMEFS PROBABILITIES OF ANY MAINSTEM RIVER GOING INTO FLOOD BEING
ABOUT TEN PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT...FOR THIS FORECAST DO NOT
PLAN ON ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...THOUGH COULD IMAGINE SOME
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUANCES SHOULD SOME MORE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF HIGHS TODAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THEN
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES...
COOLEST TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER AND WARMEST NEAR INTERSTATE 95.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR AND JUST ENOUGH...EVEN MODEST
STIRRING...TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT NEAR 1000FT THAT FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED...DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND S/W RIDGING
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE THE AREA IN A WEST TO EAST
FASHION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...YIELDING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER... WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 1360S...THINK WE
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO
THE MAV VALUES. THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY
MORNING THANKS TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL GO WITH LOW TEMPS OF AROUND
50.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A MID LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE BEST COMBO OF MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS...WITH
ONLY LOW END CHANCE NW TO NOTHING SE. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
IN THIS DIRECTION...THEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE DRY. HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER
TO POSSIBLE MID 70S SE. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN L/W
TROUGH AXIS THIS WEEKEND WELL TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD/DRIER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...
WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME 70S FAR SOUTHEAST...WITH AN EXPECTED
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGH TEMPS BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE
30S...MAYBE A FEW 40S ON SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM MONDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS IN CENTRAL NC. A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION REMAINS IN
PLACE... CONSISTING OF COOL AND STABLE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST NOSING SSW THROUGH CENTRAL/WRN NC... WHILE A
COASTAL WARM FRONT PUSHES VERY SLOWLY WNW-WARD INTO ERN NC. THE WARM
AND MOIST FLOW OF AIR BRINGING ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE
COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
RAIN AND DRIZZLE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY EVENING... WHEN WE`LL START TO
SEE A SLOW TAPERING DOWN TO MOSTLY VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. VSBYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY MVFR OR VFR... HOWEVER WITHIN
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN VSBYS WILL DROP TO IFR OR LIFR FOR USUALLY
AN HOUR OR LESS. CIGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY MOSTLY IFR THROUGH
TONIGHT... THEN LIFT SLOWLY TO MVFR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (15Z-18Z TUE). WHILE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRICTLY MET... THE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NE
COMBINED WITH WINDS FROM THE SE AT 3-5 KFT AND OUT OF THE SW AT 8-10
KFT MAY INDUCE SOME MECHANICAL TURBULENCE... MAKING AIRCRAFT
HANDLING CHALLENGING... PARTICULARLY FOR SMALL CRAFT... THROUGH
TONIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF SOME THUNDER THIS EVENING NEAR FAY... BOTH
OTHERWISE NO LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ANY REMAINING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF TUE WITH VSBYS MOSTLY VFR... ALTHOUGH
CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE. BUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD TREND TO
VFR WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT TUE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL
TO OUR NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY THU... WHEN
A BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
AN INCOMING COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH
SAT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
925 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE LOWS COMBINED WITH A CHILLY
AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 925 AM MONDAY...
PRIMARY CHANGES THIS MORNING DEAL WITH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP
TRENDS. BAND OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NC IS BEING DRIVEN
BY A SHOT OF STRONG MOIST UPGLIDE ATTENDING A LOBE OF MID LEVEL
VORTICITY TRANSLATING TO THE NNE THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THIS LATTER
FEATURES PIVOTS TO OUR NORTH... MODELS DEPICT SOME DRYING ALOFT
ABOVE 0C WHICH SHOULD LESSEN PRECIP INTENSITY... ALTHOUGH THE MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG
WELL INTO TONIGHT... THUS THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN HIGH. SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED BATCHES OF CONVECTION OVER NRN
FL (NE OF THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE) AND OFF THE SC
COAST ARE LIKELY TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST INTO EARLY EVENING...
AS WE`RE LACKING A MECHANISM FOR THE COASTAL FRONT TO PUSH WELL
WESTWARD UNTIL PERHAPS LATER TONIGHT... GIVEN THAT THE WEDGE REGIME
IS QUITE ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL NC. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... SHOWING A VERY
SLOW RISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD... GREATER EAST OF THE I-95 THAN
ELSEWHERE AS THE STABLE POOL DEPTH SHOULD BE DECREASING ALONG ITS
EDGE. THIS TRANSLATES INTO "HIGHS" TODAY OF 46-66 AND "LOWS" TONIGHT
OF 45-64. WILL WAIT UNTIL A THOROUGH LOOK AT MORNING GUIDANCE BEFORE
ADJUSTING TONIGHT`S FORECAST ANY FURTHER... AS THE TRACK OF ANY
SURFACE LOW OVER ERN NC WILL IMPACT NOT ONLY TEMPS BUT HOW MUCH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED IN OUR FAR ERN COUNTIES
(CURRENTLY A FAIRLY LOW POTENTIAL). EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 0.75" TO 1.5"... HIGHEST IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 315 AM:
AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE
SOUTH. GOOD DIFFLUENCE IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND
THE GFS FORECASTS GOOD LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST HRRR WRF
GUIDANCE SHOWS RESULTS LIKE THE MOIST GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...
BASICALLY AREAS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL FOLLOW THE
METEOROLOGY AND THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST THE OLD CCF PLUS POPS FOR
TODAY.
ONE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH WILL TEMPERATURES RISE...IF AT
ALL. TO START THE NIGHT...SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AS LOW AS THE MID
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THOSE
DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S ALMOST ENTIRELY ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THE GFS AND THE LATEST ECMWF KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE PRECIPITATION. WHILE
THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO BEAT OF LATE...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS GUIDANCE AND SHOW HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD WITH LITTLE RISE DURING THE DAY
THERE...TO THE MID 50S IN THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 60S LATE IN
THE DAY TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY IN THE RADAR DEPICTION DURING THE DAY...BUT GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE OR WARMER TODAY WITH
MUCAPE IN THE LOWEST 6KM BARELY REGISTERING. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER TODAY IF THE SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES ON THE NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS VERIFY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THERE SHOULD BE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND
25MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 AS WINDS AT 850MB AND
925MB INCREASE BY 18Z TO CLOSE TO 40KT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN
THE DAY. -DJF
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT OVERNIGHT THERE IS SOME TOP-DOWN DRYING
AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST DECENT
DRYING AT AND ABOVE ABOUT 600MB BY 12Z TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS GOOD
UPPER DIFFLUENCE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
70KT 300MB JET NEARBY EARLY TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODEST
850MB CONVERGENCE. THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER MAY BE DRIVEN BY WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MUCAPE TONIGHT
IS FORECAST TO ABOUT 100 TO 200J/KG CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE
BETTER INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LESSER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FORECAST
SOME DRYING BETWEEN 500MB AND 700MB BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BEFORE THE BUFR SOUNDINGS TEND TO MOISTEN SOME BY 03Z
OR SO WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY TOWARD
KRWI AND KFAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA DURING TUESDAY...A GRADUALLY DRIER AIR MASS SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THERE IS
FORECAST AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH SPREADING OVER THE AREA WITH K
INDICES GOING SHARPLY NEGATIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FALL FROM WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY TO LESS THAN AN INCH
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
REMAINING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING
TAKES PLACE. WILL HAVE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 20Z TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER WITH
QPF...AND THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MMEFS QPF IS VERY GOOD...WITH
THE SREF...GEFS AND NAEFS ALL SHOWING VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BASINS FROM JUST OVER AN INCH TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES.
THREE-HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 2.5 INCHES OR GREATER...AND
TWELVE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 3.5 INCHES OR GREATER WITH THE
MMEFS PROBABILITIES OF ANY MAINSTEM RIVER GOING INTO FLOOD BEING
ABOUT TEN PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT...FOR THIS FORECAST DO NOT
PLAN ON ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...THOUGH COULD IMAGINE SOME
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUANCES SHOULD SOME MORE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF HIGHS TODAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THEN
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES...
COOLEST TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER AND WARMEST NEAR INTERSTATE 95.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR AND JUST ENOUGH...EVEN MODEST
STIRRING...TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT NEAR 1000FT THAT FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED...DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND S/W RIDGING
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE THE AREA IN A WEST TO EAST
FASHION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...YIELDING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER... WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 1360S...THINK WE
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO
THE MAV VALUES. THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY
MORNING THANKS TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL GO WITH LOW TEMPS OF AROUND
50.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A MID LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE BEST COMBO OF MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS...WITH
ONLY LOW END CHANCE NW TO NOTHING SE. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
IN THIS DIRECTION...THEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE DRY. HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER
TO POSSIBLE MID 70S SE. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN L/W
TROUGH AXIS THIS WEEKEND WELL TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD/DRIER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...
WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME 70S FAR SOUTHEAST...WITH AN EXPECTED
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGH TEMPS BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE
30S...MAYBE A FEW 40S ON SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND LIFR
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOW AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND AT
LEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE
COASTAL FRONT MAY MAKE SLIGHT PROGRESS INLAND AND GET CLOSE TO
INTERSTATE 95 OVERNIGHT...BUT INSTEAD OF FORECASTING ANY SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS AND LAV
GUIDANCE AND FORECAST A CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CLOSE AT KRWI AND KFAY OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS OFF OF
THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS FORECASTING
EASTERLY WINDS TO 40KT AT KRWI BY 3000FT AROUND 21Z...LESSER
EASTERLY WINDS MORE AROUND 30KT ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AT THAT TIME. THESE WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING TO GENERALLY 10 TO 20KT. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
THERE IS CURRENTLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF IFR LOW CLOUDS IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...THEN A CHANCE OF AREAS
OF LOW VFR OR HIGH MVFR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEK ON FRIDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
642 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...COLD AIR DAMMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL OCCUR OVER THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST. ANOTHER HIGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE
SOUTH. GOOD DIFFLUENCE IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND
THE GFS FORECASTS GOOD LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST HRRR WRF
GUIDANCE SHOWS RESULTS LIKE THE MOIST GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...
BASICALLY AREAS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL FOLLOW THE
METEOROLOGY AND THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST THE OLD CCF PLUS POPS FOR
TODAY.
ONE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH WILL TEMPERATURES RISE...IF AT
ALL. TO START THE NIGHT...SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AS LOW AS THE MID
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THOSE
DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S ALMOST ENTIRELY ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THE GFS AND THE LATEST ECMWF KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE PRECIPITATION. WHILE
THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO BEAT OF LATE...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS GUIDANCE AND SHOW HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD WITH LITTLE RISE DURING THE DAY
THERE...TO THE MID 50S IN THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 60S LATE IN
THE DAY TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY IN THE RADAR DEPICTION DURING THE DAY...BUT GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE OR WARMER TODAY WITH
MUCAPE IN THE LOWEST 6KM BARELY REGISTERING. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER TODAY IF THE SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES ON THE NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS VERIFY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THERE SHOULD BE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND
25MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 AS WINDS AT 850MB AND
925MB INCREASE BY 18Z TO CLOSE TO 40KT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN
THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT OVERNIGHT THERE IS SOME TOP-DOWN DRYING
AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST DECENT
DRYING AT AND ABOVE ABOUT 600MB BY 12Z TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS GOOD
UPPER DIFFLUENCE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
70KT 300MB JET NEARBY EARLY TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODEST
850MB CONVERGENCE. THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER MAY BE DRIVEN BY WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MUCAPE TONIGHT
IS FORECAST TO ABOUT 100 TO 200J/KG CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE
BETTER INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LESSER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FORECAST
SOME DRYING BETWEEN 500MB AND 700MB BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BEFORE THE BUFR SOUNDINGS TEND TO MOISTEN SOME BY 03Z
OR SO WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY TOWARD
KRWI AND KFAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA DURING TUESDAY...A GRADUALLY DRIER AIR MASS SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THERE IS
FORECAST AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH SPREADING OVER THE AREA WITH K
INDICES GOING SHARPLY NEGATIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FALL FROM WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY TO LESS THAN AN INCH
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
REMAINING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING
TAKES PLACE. WILL HAVE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 20Z TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER WITH
QPF...AND THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MMEFS QPF IS VERY GOOD...WITH
THE SREF...GEFS AND NAEFS ALL SHOWING VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BASINS FROM JUST OVER AN INCH TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES.
THREE-HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 2.5 INCHES OR GREATER...AND
TWELVE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 3.5 INCHES OR GREATER WITH THE
MMEFS PROBABILITIES OF ANY MAINSTEM RIVER GOING INTO FLOOD BEING
ABOUT TEN PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT...FOR THIS FORECAST DO NOT
PLAN ON ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...THOUGH COULD IMAGINE SOME
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUANCES SHOULD SOME MORE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF HIGHS TODAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THEN
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES...
COOLEST TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER AND WARMEST NEAR INTERSTATE 95.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR AND JUST ENOUGH...EVEN MODEST
STIRRING...TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT NEAR 1000FT THAT FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED...DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND S/W RIDGING
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE THE AREA IN A WEST TO EAST
FASHION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...YIELDING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER... WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 1360S...THINK WE
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO
THE MAV VALUES. THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY
MORNING THANKS TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL GO WITH LOW TEMPS OF AROUND
50.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A MID LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE BEST COMBO OF MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS...WITH
ONLY LOW END CHANCE NW TO NOTHING SE. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
IN THIS DIRECTION...THEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE DRY. HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER
TO POSSIBLE MID 70S SE. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN L/W
TROUGH AXIS THIS WEEKEND WELL TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD/DRIER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...
WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME 70S FAR SOUTHEAST...WITH AN EXPECTED
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGH TEMPS BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE
30S...MAYBE A FEW 40S ON SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND LIFR
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOW AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND AT
LEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE
COASTAL FRONT MAY MAKE SLIGHT PROGRESS INLAND AND GET CLOSE TO
INTERSTATE 95 OVERNIGHT...BUT INSTEAD OF FORECASTING ANY SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS AND LAV
GUIDANCE AND FORECAST A CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CLOSE AT KRWI AND KFAY OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS OFF OF
THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS FORECASTING
EASTERLY WINDS TO 40KT AT KRWI BY 3000FT AROUND 21Z...LESSER
EASTERLY WINDS MORE AROUND 30KT ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AT THAT TIME. THESE WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING TO GENERALLY 10 TO 20KT. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
THERE IS CURRENTLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF IFR LOW CLOUDS IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...THEN A CHANCE OF AREAS
OF LOW VFR OR HIGH MVFR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEK ON FRIDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
316 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...COLD AIR DAMMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL OCCUR OVER THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST. ANOTHER HIGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE
SOUTH. GOOD DIFFLUENCE IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND
THE GFS FORECASTS GOOD LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST HRRR WRF
GUIDANCE SHOWS RESULTS LIKE THE MOIST GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...
BASICALLY AREAS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL FOLLOW THE
METEOROLOGY AND THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST THE OLD CCF PLUS POPS FOR
TODAY.
ONE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH WILL TEMPERATURES RISE...IF AT
ALL. TO START THE NIGHT...SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AS LOW AS THE MID
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THOSE
DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S ALMOST ENTIRELY ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THE GFS AND THE LATEST ECMWF KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE PRECIPITATION. WHILE
THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO BEAT OF LATE...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS GUIDANCE AND SHOW HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD WITH LITTLE RISE DURING THE DAY
THERE...TO THE MID 50S IN THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 60S LATE IN
THE DAY TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY IN THE RADAR DEPICTION DURING THE DAY...BUT GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE OR WARMER TODAY WITH
MUCAPE IN THE LOWEST 6KM BARELY REGISTERING. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER TODAY IF THE SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES ON THE NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS VERIFY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THERE SHOULD BE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND
25MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 AS WINDS AT 850MB AND
925MB INCREASE BY 18Z TO CLOSE TO 40KT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN
THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT OVERNIGHT THERE IS SOME TOP-DOWN DRYING
AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST DECENT
DRYING AT AND ABOVE ABOUT 600MB BY 12Z TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS GOOD
UPPER DIFFLUENCE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
70KT 300MB JET NEARBY EARLY TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODEST
850MB CONVERGENCE. THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER MAY BE DRIVEN BY WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MUCAPE TONIGHT
IS FORECAST TO ABOUT 100 TO 200J/KG CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE
BETTER INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LESSER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FORECAST
SOME DRYING BETWEEN 500MB AND 700MB BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BEFORE THE BUFR SOUNDINGS TEND TO MOISTEN SOME BY 03Z
OR SO WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY TOWARD
KRWI AND KFAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA DURING TUESDAY...A GRADUALLY DRIER AIR MASS SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THERE IS
FORECAST AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH SPREADING OVER THE AREA WITH K
INDICES GOING SHARPLY NEGATIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FALL FROM WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY TO LESS THAN AN INCH
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
REMAINING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING
TAKES PLACE. WILL HAVE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 20Z TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER WITH
QPF...AND THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MMEFS QPF IS VERY GOOD...WITH
THE SREF...GEFS AND NAEFS ALL SHOWING VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BASINS FROM JUST OVER AN INCH TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES.
THREE-HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 2.5 INCHES OR GREATER...AND
TWELVE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 3.5 INCHES OR GREATER WITH THE
MMEFS PROBABILITIES OF ANY MAINSTEM RIVER GOING INTO FLOOD BEING
ABOUT TEN PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT...FOR THIS FORECAST DO NOT
PLAN ON ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...THOUGH COULD IMAGINE SOME
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUANCES SHOULD SOME MORE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF HIGHS TODAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THEN
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES...
COOLEST TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER AND WARMEST NEAR INTERSTATE 95.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR AND JUST ENOUGH...EVEN MODEST
STIRRING...TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT NEAR 1000FT THAT FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED...DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND S/W RIDGING
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE THE AREA IN A WEST TO EAST
FASHION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...YIELDING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER... WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 1360S...THINK WE
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO
THE MAV VALUES. THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY
MORNING THANKS TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL GO WITH LOW TEMPS OF AROUND
50.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A MID LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE BEST COMBO OF MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS...WITH
ONLY LOW END CHANCE NW TO NOTHING SE. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
IN THIS DIRECTION...THEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE DRY. HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER
TO POSSIBLE MID 70S SE. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN L/W
TROUGH AXIS THIS WEEKEND WELL TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD/DRIER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...
WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME 70S FAR SOUTHEAST...WITH AN EXPECTED
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGH TEMPS BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE
30S...MAYBE A FEW 40S ON SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM MONDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH VFR AND MVFR TO IFR AND
LIFR OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE 06Z
VALID TAF PERIOD. THOSE LOW AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL
FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAKING SURFACE
WINDS MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY...BUT
THE GFS GUIDANCE AND THE LAV KEEP THE FRONT AND THE TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE MORE TOWARD THE COAST...AND WILL FOLLOW THAT GUIDANCE FOR
THIS FORECAST WHICH KEEPS SURFACE WINDS NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST OVER ALL
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH AND BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS FORECASTING EASTERLY WINDS TO 40KT AT KRWI BY
3000FT AROUND 21Z...LESSER EASTERLY WINDS MORE AROUND 30KT ELSEWHERE
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AT THAT TIME. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF IFR LOW CLOUDS IN CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...THEN A CHANCE OF AREAS OF LOW VFR
OR HIGH MVFR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS TO END
THE WEEK ON FRIDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
320 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
TEMPS HAVE RISEN NICELY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN
STORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE N RRV AND
DEVILS LAKE BASIN BY MORNING. WHILE MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY
AFFECT THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BY MORNING NEAR THE FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN...TO NEAR 60 AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY/WC MN.
EXACTLY HOW TEMPS BEHAVE IN BETWEEN WILL DEPEND ON THE COLD
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT DO EXPECT A PRETTY SHARP TEMP GRADIENT. THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING ACROSS NE ND/NW MN LATER
TUE/TUE NIGHT...AND MODELS SHOW SOME LOW QPF...BUT EXPECT ANY OF
THIS PRECIP TO BE QUITE LIGHT...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SATURATION CONFINED TO THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. PLENTY OF LOW
STRATUS SHOULD HOLD TIGHT OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT NOW AMONG MODELS THAT A SFC LOW WILL FORM
IN CO AND LIFT UP INTO NORTHEAST WI BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIP REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. DID KEEP
SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE BIGGER CHANGE WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPS BACK
DOWN TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY. WHILE NOT A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
POSSIBLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 30S. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY RRV WESTWARD AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
FAR SOUTH AND WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING AS SYSTEMS DROPS BY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. IT WILL BE COOL ON FRIDAY WITH A CLEARING TREND FROM
WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL AGAIN AND PACIFIC AIRMASS FLOODS THE AREA AND
WE WARM BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK IS LOOKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TOO...WITH SOME RISK OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD. AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO TUESDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS. FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST BUT LIKELY NOT IMPACT DVL AREA TIL JUST
PAST 18Z WITH A NORTH WIND AND POSSIBLY LOWER CIGS. COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN DVL BASIN OVERNIGHT PER HRRR BUT THAT AREA TO SEE A
GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS TOO SO THAT MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1250 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015
DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY (WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE
HIGHS...WHICH ARE IN THE LOW 40S) ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND A
FEW HIGH CIRRUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS TEMPS AND LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES BY
MIDWEEK. MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A DAY VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
60 SOUTH AND IN THE MID 50S NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND WITH
NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL WARMER TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS A SFC BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS AND STRETCHES SW TO NE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW.
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY AND VERY WARM DAY IN THE SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE COOLER AIR THAT STARTS TO DRAG INTO THE N AN NW
FA...AND COOLER READINGS ARE EXPECTED HERE. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST
A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM THE FAR NW TO THE
SOUTH...WITH HIGHS NEAR 40 FAR NW TO AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015
FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE WILL BE DEEPER SATURATION MOVING FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW DEPENDING ON LOCATION TO THE FRONT. THE LATEST TRENDS
WITH THIS CONTINUE TO BE DRIER THOUGH AND PUSH THE MAIN STORM AND
ASSOCIATED QPF SOUTH OF OUR FA...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM AT ALL. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY WED AND BECOME GUSTY
WITH ABOUT 30KT TO MIX AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR ALL AREAS.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE FIRST STRONG LOW LIFTS NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES ON THU THERE IS STILL A TRAILING SHORT WAVE BEHIND
IT. THIS LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW
WITH IT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. WINDS ON THU
ALSO LOOK PRETTY GUSTY ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS
THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST LATER FRIDAY THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM LOOKS DRY. 500MB FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL OR SLIGHT SOUTHWEST
WITH TEMPS BOOSTING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD. AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO TUESDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS. FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST BUT LIKELY NOT IMPACT DVL AREA TIL JUST
PAST 18Z WITH A NORTH WIND AND POSSIBLY LOWER CIGS. COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN DVL BASIN OVERNIGHT PER HRRR BUT THAT AREA TO SEE A
GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS TOO SO THAT MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
623 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER
AIR REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEPT THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH TO QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEPARTED THE
CWA. RADAR CURRENTLY OVERSHOOTING THE LOW TOPPED ECHOES IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...SO STILL KEEP HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AREAS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO ADDED DRIZZLE...WHICH SHOULD LINGER
IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS PAST 06Z TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND
NAM ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PAINTING QPF...AND HAS IT
CONTINUING WELL INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD.
KEEP THE CLEARING ON THE SLOW SIDE GIVEN THE SLOW RETREAT OF THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE AT A MINIMUM
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE USED THIS AS JUSTIFICATION FOR
HIGHER CLOUD COVER AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...AND COULD SEE THE
TRI STATE AREA CLEAR BEFORE MORNING. SOME LATE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE HERE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EASE. RECENT LIGHT RAIN
ALSO HELPS THE CAUSE.
WITH BETTER INSOLATION IN THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES WILL IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG MID LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM THE MS
VALLEY...NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS ARE
IN DESCENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY IN THEIR QPF
FIELDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THE SREF LAGS THE NAM FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. PREFER THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.
MODELS SUGGEST STRONG H850 SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 40 TO 60 KNOTS ALONG
THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER FROM THE MIXING LAYER OF 26 TO 36 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...INCREASED WIND GUST IN THE 30S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
IN THE 20S LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO
STAY LIQUID.
THE NAM KEEPS MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE LOW LEVELS. SUSPECT
LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OR
MOVE EAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST LATE
THURSDAY.
DRY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
USED THE ALL CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FORESEEN FROM 24 HOURS AGO...IS TO BE
A BIT FASTER BY 3 TO 6 HOURS BRINGING THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ESE FRIDAY EVENING...IN THE LOW LEVEL COLD POOL FRIDAY
EVENING. LIKEWISE...WILL BE A FEW HOURS FASTER LIFTING OUT THAT COLD
POOL SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. STILL WILL LEAVE 20 TO 40
POPS OVER OUR NE COUNTIES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN SHIFTED A FEW HOURS EARLIER.
AGAIN A COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES NOT COLD ENOUGH ALOFT...AND MOISTURE NOT DEEP
ENOUGH...FOR GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE CLOUDS.
WILL STILL HAVE NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY EVENING OF 20 TO
30 MPH... WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850 MB FLOW STILL RUNNING
AROUND 40 KNOTS.
WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS FIGURED IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT... STILL WENT A BIT COLDER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT CWA.
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HAVE CLOUDS/MOISTURE INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN 12Z GFS INCREASING
POPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF... WITH A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND LOCAL IFR MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT
00Z...WITH SOME GRADUAL CLEARING/IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST. EXPECT GENERALLY IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH TO
VFR BY 09Z...WITH AREAS TO THE EAST IMPROVING AROUND 12Z OR
SHORTLY AFTER. NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS MAY BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR...INCLUDING SITES KCKB AND KEKN.
GENERALLY EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AFTER
14Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED TO ADD FOG TONIGHT. NORTHERN
TERMINALS MAY BOUNCE FROM IFR TO MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS. TIMING OF
CLEARING TO VFR MAY OCCUR FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1142 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...02Z SURFACE PLOT PLACES AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER MIDDLE AND EAST TENNESSEE. INFRARED/11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
RETROGRADING INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE. AS OF 8 PM CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND 50S SOUTH.
00Z WRF AND HRRR SHORT TERM MODEL ISENTROPIC SURFACES SUGGEST
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR
TRENDS THUS FAR SEEM TO AGREE WITH THIS THINKING. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES AND ANY OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AN INVERTED SFC TROF CURRENTLY STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD FROM A SFC
LOW LOCATED NEAR THE ALABAMA COAST TO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
INVERTED SFC TROF WILL MOVE WESTWARD AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS
TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COVER
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE RIVER. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE AS FAR WEST AS
JONESBORO ARKANSAS. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS FROM THE SYSTEM COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE CLOUDS SPREADING IN...EXPECT LOWS
NOT TO DROP AS LOW AS WHAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. IN
ADDITION...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THUS
WILL GO WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
40S TO LOWER 50S.
CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM MAY NOT MOVE OUT UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. THUS
EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
BY TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TURNING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
RETURN FLOW DOES NOT AS LOOK AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW/UPPER LOW WILL BE
VERTICALLY STACKED AND WILL TRACK FROM KANSAS TO WISCONSIN. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM MAY OCCLUDE PINCHING OFF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THAT WILL BE TRYING TO MOVE UP THE DELTA. THE GFS SHOWS NO
CAPE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF HAS VERY MEAGER AMOUNTS.
LOOKING AT ANALOG DATA FROM PAST EVENTS THAT LOOK SIMILAR TO WHAT
MODELS SUGGEST WILL HAPPEN ON WEDNESDAY...MORE OF THE EVENTS
PRODUCED NO SEVERE WEATHER THAN EVENTS THAT PRODUCED SEVERE
WEATHER. THUS EXPECT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE DIMINISHING. WHAT WILL LIKELY
HAPPEN WILL BE JUST A QLCS TO MOVE THROUGH WITH A SMALL TORNADO
RISK ON THE ONSET WHEN IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS/THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND THEN NO SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE LINE AS IT
CROSSES THE MS RIVER AS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS GET PINCHED OFF AS
THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY IS STILL SEVERAL PERIODS
AWAY AND THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BEAR WATCHING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE PRESSURE
OVER AL HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD NORTHWEST INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS
EVENING. 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT
OF AND UNDERLYING MVFR DECK...NORTHWEST OF MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK TO
THE SOUTHEAST. GFS LAMP GUIDANCE APPEARED TO HOLD ONTO THE MVFR
DECK TOO LONG INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE CHOSEN THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC NAM GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL DURING THE LATE
MONDAY EVENING MEM CARGO INBOUNDS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
529 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY IS FORECAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. KAMA VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 40 KT JUST OFF THE SURFACE. RUC 850 MB
ANALYSES SHOW CORE OF STRONGER WINDS SITUATED NEAR KAMA...WITH LESSER
SPEEDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THUS...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 30 KT TODAY AT KAMA...AND TO AROUND 25 KT
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO BELOW
15 KT AT ALL TERMINALS BY 00Z TUESDAY. NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE. MAIN FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE ON A VERY DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THE STRONG
WINDS IT WILL BRING TO THE PANHANDLES. A BRIEF WARMING TREND TODAY
AND TOMORROW...WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S
TOMORROW. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AFTER THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER...WITH MORE TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED FOR NIGHTS
AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
REGARDING THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION AND POSSIBLE
IMPACTS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE WILL AID IN WARMING TEMPS AND DRYING OUT THE SURFACE AIR
TODAY AND TOMORROW. PRESSURE AND HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM AS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 20 KTS ON
TUESDAY AND AROUND 25 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. CLOSER TO THE LOW...AREAS IN
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE COULD SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 TO 35 KTS FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE LIMITED WIND GUSTS TO GO NO HIGHER THAN 49
KTS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE THOSE AREAS COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 55 KT RANGE /HIGH WIND WARNING RANGE/ ON
WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY...AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KTS ARE MORE
CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. ALSO
MENTIONED PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME DUE TO POSSIBLE EXPOSED FIELDS WITH THE FALL HARVEST ONGOING.
MOST OF THE PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES TO GET
SQUEEZED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH.
NF
FIRE WEATHER...
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS MOST OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES...THAT NO FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER ON TUESDAY...AND ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO
MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRICKIER...AS WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONCERN...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD
STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE COULD STILL SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...SO SOME POSSIBILITY FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THOSE AREAS ON WEDNESDAY.
NF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 70 44 78 44 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 67 43 79 45 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 65 38 73 38 54 / 0 0 0 5 10
BORGER TX 71 48 80 47 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 72 42 79 43 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 70 43 78 43 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 70 45 78 45 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 69 39 76 42 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 67 41 78 44 58 / 0 0 0 0 5
HEREFORD TX 71 42 76 43 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 67 46 80 48 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 69 46 77 45 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 67 46 78 48 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 69 47 79 49 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/06
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
423 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING THEN A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN US WILL CONTROL THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
HAS ERODED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT HAS BEGUN MIXING TO THE SURFACE. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG
REMAINS ATTM AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO ERODE BY DAYBREAK. DRIER AIR
WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. FOG THREAT FOR TONIGHT IS LOW DUE TO DRY AIRMASS
BEING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF CHANGE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT WEAKENING AND DRYING AS IT CROSSES
THE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.
WINDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 10 AND
15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND WITH DRY FROPA EXPECTED THE WINDS
WILL HELP DRY THE SATURATED GROUND SLIGHTLY. FRONT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
RAPIDLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE HELP SOILS DRY AND ALLOW RIVER LEVELS
TO SUBSIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S THEN COOL INTO THE MID 60S FRIDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND
40 FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCENARIO BEGINS CHANGING MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO PLAINS STATES AND WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOISTURE
BEGINS RETURNING TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING...
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT. HRRR GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS SUGGEST AREAS OF DENSE
FOG MAY DEVELOP. UPS RADIATION FOG METHOD ALSO SUPPORTS FOG AT
TERMINALS. LAMP GUIDANCE IS MORE MARGINAL...WITH DRIER AIR
POSSIBLY ADVECTING INTO AREA TOWARD MORNING. AGS TERMINAL ALREADY
LIFR. EXPECT IFR TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AT ALL SITES. LIFR AT
AGS/OGB BASED ON LATEST HRRR. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR...CLEAR
BY 14Z...WITH CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE
FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND RESERVOIR RELEASES HAVE PROMPTED RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
FOR MANY OF THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1257 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS HAVE STAYED UP A BIT EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT THEY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT
OVER THE REGION AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
AND SOME LOCAL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT RAINS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE LAST TO ARRIVE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S BY DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE E CONUS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR
REGION. A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER...WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS.
ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NE TO THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE...WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
TO OUR EAST LATE WED NT/EARLY THU...WITH A DRY COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED
WITH THE FRONT...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT INDICATING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. W TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRI
NT...AND REMAIN OVER OUR REGION SAT/SUN. FREEZE/FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE SAT/SUN MORNINGS. GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING
THE NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR REGION LATE MON NT INTO
TUE. ACCEPTED WPCGUIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING...
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT. HRRR GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS SUGGEST AREAS OF DENSE
FOG MAY DEVELOP. UPS RADIATION FOG METHOD ALSO SUPPORTS FOG AT
TERMINALS. LAMP GUIDANCE IS MORE MARGINAL...WITH DRIER AIR
POSSIBLY ADVECTING INTO AREA TOWARD MORNING. AGS TERMINAL ALREADY
LIFR. EXPECT IFR TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AT ALL SITES. LIFR AT
AGS/OGB BASED ON LATEST HRRR. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR...CLEAR
BY 14Z...WITH CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE
FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND RESERVOIR RELEASES HAVE PROMPTED RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
FOR MANY OF THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
353 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
TODAY WILL FEATURE DYNAMIC AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH SEVERAL
POTENTIAL HAZARDS. A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL EJECT EAST NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY...DEEPENING RAPIDLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OVER IOWA
BY SUNSET. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...EARLY THIS MORNING...WE ARE ALREADY
SEEING RAPID PROLIFERATION OF LOW/MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
IOWA. SOME AREAS ALONG THIS TROUGH FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN IOWA ARE REPORTING LIGHT FOG...BUT ITS DEVELOPMENT IS BEING
HAMPERED BY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE DEPICTING A BREAKOUT OF DENSE FOG WITHIN THE TROUGH
AXIS...MAINLY AFFECTING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...LATER THIS MORNING
TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT SEEMS MITIGATED BY THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...AND NO ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED.
WILL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN CASE ONE
BECOMES WARRANTED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LATER THIS MORNING...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER FORCING ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF THE
LOW. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WHILE THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE HANGING ONTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF...THE HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC AND DEPICTING
MORE LIKE DRIZZLE OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN
SOMEWHAT IN THE MORNING BUT KEPT THEM LARGELY IN THE CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE...WITH OVERCAST SKIES PREVAILING PAST MIDDAY. IN ANY
EVENT NO REAL IMPACT IS FORESEEN FROM ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS EVEN THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST TOWARD NOON.
IN TERMS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A
DRYLINE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH ROCKETING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW/COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS SOMETIME IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES SO...WE SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING ALLOWING FOR
SOME MODEST DESTABILIZATION. WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG
FORCING AND WIND SHEAR/FLOW FIELDS THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHAT TIME CLEARING WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND WHERE
ANY SUCH STORMS WILL INITIATE. HRRR/RAP/NMM/ARW RUNS CONSISTENTLY
BRING A SHARP CLEARING EDGE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 20
OR 21Z WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THAT EDGE. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH CONCEPTUAL MODELS AND SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY WAY THAT
SUCH DISCRETE CELLS COULD TAP INTO THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AS BEHIND THE DRYLINE SURFACE WINDS WILL GO SOUTH SOUTHWEST
AND SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. AT THE SAME TIME...IF THE
STORMS REALLY ARE TIED RIGHT ONTO THE BACK EDGE OF THE LARGE LOW
CLOUD SHIELD...THEN THERE MAY NOT BE TIME TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF
THEM AND THEY COULD BE ELEVATED. HRRR SURFACE CAPE FIELDS SEEM TO
INDICATE THIS WILL BE THE CASE. ALL IN ALL...INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT
FOR SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN
IOWA...HOWEVER IT WILL BE A VERY NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN
TIME AND SPACE AND THINGS WILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT. WE
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY FOR
POSSIBLE WATCH/WARNING ISSUANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FINALLY...AS AFTERNOON STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS INTO IOWA TOWARD SUNSET...VERY STRONG WINDS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THIS IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE LONG
TERM SECTION BELOW...AND WIND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE RACING QUICKLY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT
REMAINS HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY INCREASES AS STRONG PRESSURE
RISES LIFT INTO CENTRAL IOWA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 70-80
UBARS/KM STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH PRESSURE RISES OF 12-15 MB/6
HRS. A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE NEARLY COINCIDENT
TO THE REGION WITH MAX EXPECTED WINDS. WHILE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL HELP MIX THE LOW LEVELS TO NEAR 900 MB WITH 50+ KTS OF WIND
IN THE MIXED LAYER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VERTICAL ASCENT BETWEEN
925-700 MB MAY LIMIT PEAK WINDS A BIT. THAT SAID...PLENTY OF
INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING DOWN TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM THE
DSM METRO AND WEST AND SUSPECT THE POSSIBILITY IT WILL NEED TO BE
EXPANDED FURTHER. SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE
SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 65 MPH BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. STILL POTENTIAL FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE
TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN IOWA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS AND ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHEAST. THE SUBSIDENCE REGION OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
ARRIVE OVER CENTRAL IOWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH WIND CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET ON
THURSDAY THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY THURSDAY.
VERY DRY DEWPOINTS ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SFC
RIDGE PASSING ACROSS IOWA FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR DES MOINES TO REACH FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS FALL PENDING THE TIMING OF RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE THAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERN TROUGH BRINGS
SOUTHWEST FLOW BACK TO THE MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...11/06Z ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME BREAKS IN CEILINGS BUT MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT INTO IOWA AND STRATUS IS PUSHING IN FROM THE NW SO OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF LOCATIONS.
PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP AND THE MODELS ARE SLOWING
THE SYSTEM DOWN SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIP
OVERNIGHT BUT ELEVATED STORMS STILL POSSIBLE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO IA DURING THE MORNING WITH THE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE STATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND STILL FORECAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM
AFTER 12/00Z AND BEYOND.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-
STORY-WARREN-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
MADISON-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-STORY-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
ADAMS-APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-
GRUNDY-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1207 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES IN REPONSE TO A TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. AS A
RESULT...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER MILD NOV DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
DESPITE FAIRLY THICK CI SPREADING OVERHEAD...TEMPS HAVE STILL RISEN
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD...A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE REACHED 60F.
TONIGHT...LINGERING DRY AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH
THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER LIGHT SW WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FAVORED THE
LOWER END OF AVBL GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE BIAS CORRECTED
REGIONAL GEM. EXPECT TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE SCNTRL
AND E TO FALL TO THE MID 20S. DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
OVER THE W AND NCNTRL WILL ONLY FALL TO THE UPPER 30S/LWR 40S. LIGHT
SW FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN ADVECTING HIGHER DWPTS INTO THE CHILLY
INTERIOR WILL LEAD TO FOG AND MAYBE SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE
ERN FCST AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
ON WED...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE CURRENT WRN CONUS TROF WHICH WILL
SHIFT OUT OVER THE PLAINS. ENERGY SWINGING THRU BASE OF THE TROF
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT 12HR HEIGHT FALLS...REACHING 230-250M AT
500MB BY 00Z THU OVER SRN IA/NRN MO. IN RESPONSE...INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL LEAD TO MOISTURE SURGING N UP THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WED. PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1 INCH WILL REACH AT
LEAST CNTRL WI BY EVENING. A SLOW/STEADY INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME -RA SPREADING INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTN. WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT STILL OFF TO
THE SW OF UPPER MI THRU THE AFTN...THE MAIN PCPN EVENT WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL WED NIGHT. GIVEN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...
GENERALLY UTILIZED A CONSENSUS OF AVBL GUIDANCE FOR SPREADING SCHC
TO CHC POPS NE INTO ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE
AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONG LOW THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN DRAGGING A TRAILING TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF AFDS...THE STORM PERFORMS MUCH OF ITS STRENGTHENING
AS IT IS NEARING THE AREA AND THEN BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST UPPER MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. THIS WILL END UP LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THE
WINDS FOR OUR CWA AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THINK THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT (LEADING
TO THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION) WILL HELP KEEP THE WINDS IN CHECK.
THAT BEING SAID...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SOME GALES TO 35KTS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND GUSTS TO 20-30KTS OVER SOME OF THE
EASTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...THE WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WHERE THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ARE OCCURRING AND THERE IS
35-40KT LOW LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT THAT TO OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LIKELY PRODUCE GALES OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE FINAL SURGE OF STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH THAT DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
30-35KT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE HEIGHTENED WORDING IN THE HWO (ALTHOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER VALUES) AND ADD A MENTION OF STRONG WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOR PRECIPITATION...THE INITIAL SURGE ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIED TO THE BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK DRY
SLOT ALOFT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN CWA. BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK/MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION DURING
THE REST OF THE EVENT WILL BE TIED TO THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AIDED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C. THOSE FALLING TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WEST-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.P. TO LEAD TO A MARKED
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING OVER THE WESTERN U.P.. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TAKE A
LITTLE LONGER TO REACH THE EASTERN U.P....BUT SHOULD SEE IT TAKE OFF
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. ONCE IT TURNS OVER TO SNOW...THINK SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE (SNOW RATIOS AROUND 9 TO 1 WITH THE BEST FORCING
BELOW THE DGZ) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND DEFINITELY
THINK HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE SHIFTS. PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST 0.75IN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OUT WEST NEARING 1.5 INCHES.
ADD TO THAT AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.85 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OVER THE WEST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION AFTER A DRY FALL.
AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TRENDS TEMPERATURES BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE ENERGY IS SPLIT WELL TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO DON/T EXPECT TOO SIGNIFICANT
OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT FELT CHANCE POPS WERE REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
A LITTLE BIT OF MVFR TYPE FOG...PROBABLY JUST SOME GROUND FOG...HAS
DEVELOPED AT SAW. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 2 OR 3 DEGREES...DO NOT
EXPECT THE FOG TO GET WORSE THAN MVFR. OTHERWISE...SOME MID CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. ALL SITES SHOULD STAY
VFR ON WED...BUT CIGS WILL START TO LOWER ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE DEEPENING LOW MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EXPECT RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS TO SPREAD ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN WED NIGHT. IN FACT...BY MIDNIGHT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
TO SEE SOME LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WITH THE MOIST
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING UNDER A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE PLAINS WHERE DEEPENING
LOW PRES WILL LIFT NE TO IA LATE WED AFTN. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK
TO NEAR THE STRAITS BY MID AFTN THU AND TO SRN QUEBEC BY FRI
MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP LATE WED AFTN AND WILL
PEAK LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING WHEN GALES ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER
DIMINISHING TO 20-30KT FOR THU AFTN/EVENING...WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE TO NW GALES FOR AT LEAST CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THU NIGHT/FRI IN THE WAKE OF A TROF PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW PRES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO 10-20KT OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR LSZ162-263-264-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1122 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR BEING
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIXTURE OF PRECIP INITIALLY
THAT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE WEST...AS NORTH WINDS
STRENGTHEN. REFER TO THE LATEST HEADLINES RELEASED FOR MORE
DETAILS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST A SNOW BAND WILL DEVELOP OVER GARDEN AND
DEUEL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE HIGH
TERRAIN ACROSS DEUEL COUNTY...A BLIZZARD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
THERE WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS GARDEN
COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
STRONG STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS UTAH...AND WILL EMERGE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO CENTRAL IOWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
IN ADDITION RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM SYSTEM. VERY STRONG LIFT WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH NAM MODEL INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION POSSIBLE ENHANCING PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL
RATES DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS IS A VERY QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM...SO NO ONE AREA EXPECTED TO SEE MORE THAN A SIX
HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. STRONG WINDS LINGER INTO THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA WHERE
STRONG WINDS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR A RAIN OR SNOW MIX ENDING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S...FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST MORNING LOWS TAPERING UPWARDS TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL.
THURSDAY CLEARING AND COOLER AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST.
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING IN THE WEST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND PEAKING SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
MONDAY THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER STRONGER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
AN AREA OF LIFR/IFR IN SBS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AFFECTING AREAS
MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM ROUGHLY 18Z ONWARD. VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FCST AREA FROM 03Z WEDNESDAY EVENING ONWARD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/
WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ056-058-069-070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST /5
PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ022-024>026-035>037-057-059-071.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ010-
027>029-038.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ010-027>029-038.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...TAYLOR
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1246 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING
RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME CLEARING OCCURRING
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE AREA... THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
8 PM UPDATE...
OVERALL FORCAST IN GOOD SHAPE. PER THE LATEST HRRR AND RADAR
TRENDS, I DID INCREASE AND HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS (NEAR 100%
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT A GRADUAL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
IS EXPECTED BUT RAIN DOES LINGER FOR QUITE AWHILE EAST OF I-81. I
ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG, WITH A FOCUS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE
1600 FEET. WITH CIGS FALLING OVERNIGHT AND RAIN, FOG SEEMS LIKE A
GOOD BET. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN COVERING MOST OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA IS MOSTLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SO FAR... EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF STEUBEN COUNTY WHERE UP TO 0.75 INCHES IS ESTIMATED.
OBSERVATIONS OVER STEUBEN COUNTY ARE NOT INDICATING ANY TOTALS
OVER HALF AN INCH.
WV SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR MOSAICS ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT
THE RAIN HAS BECOME SPOTTIER AND LIGHTER SOUTH OF I-80 IN
PENNSYLVANIA. DON`T EXPECT THIS DRY SLOT TO MAKE MUCH MORE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PA TONIGHT. STEADIEST RAINS THIS
EVENING WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA THROUGH CENTRAL NY WITH
SPOTTIER RAIN TO THE SOUTH... ALTHOUGH EVEN DOWN ALONG I-80 EXPECT
THAT THE RAIN WILL TEND TO FILL IN AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.
POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CATEGORICAL... ABOVE 80 PERCENT
FOR MOST OF THE AREA... EXCEPT AROUND 60-70 PERCENT FOR THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG I-80. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY 0.50 TO 1.00
INCHES WITH PWAT VALUES OF JUST OVER AN INCH BEING FORCED TO THE
NORTHWEST BY A 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE
TONIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST PA. SOME
CLEARING WILL PROBABLY OCCUR IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SPREADING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE MID-LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM WITH NY/PA IN
THE LEFT EXIT OF A STRONG UPPER JET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE STRONGER THAN WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM WITH
40 TO 45 KTS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER MOISTURE VALUES WILL
BE LESS WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTING TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH. VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLY ACCOMPANYING ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHWOERS ENDING BUT CLOUDS LINGERING IN WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY/PA LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC/SUPERBLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A POWERFUL UL LOW ROTATING ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED OVER NY/PA, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FALL AS RAIN, THOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MIX IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND IN THE
COOLER REGIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY SUNDAY, THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
HEIGHTS OVER NY/PA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
WARMER THAN NORMAL START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LOW PASSING OVER THE AREA ATTM AND TRIGGERING AN AREA OF MOD
RAIN...MAINLY AFFECTING BGM...WITH LGTR RAIN DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.
XPCT RAIN TO CONT TO SLOWLY PULL OUT WITH THE LOW...BUT LVG BHD
LWRD CIGS AND VSBYS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT. HIPRES BLDS IN ON WED
BUT WITH LGT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LL MOISTURE LEFT BHD SO ONLY A
SLOW IMPRMT IN CONDS XPCTD. MOST PLACE WILL SEE VFR OR MVFR HWVR.
TNGT...CLDS REMAIN WITH VFR AND MVFR DECKS IN WEAK CAA BHD THE
LOW.
.OUTLOOK...
THU... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL.
SUN...VFR
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM/DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
110 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER
AIR REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEPT THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH TO QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEPARTED THE
CWA. RADAR CURRENTLY OVERSHOOTING THE LOW TOPPED ECHOES IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...SO STILL KEEP HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AREAS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO ADDED DRIZZLE...WHICH SHOULD LINGER
IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS PAST 06Z TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND
NAM ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PAINTING QPF...AND HAS IT
CONTINUING WELL INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD.
KEEP THE CLEARING ON THE SLOW SIDE GIVEN THE SLOW RETREAT OF THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE AT A MINIMUM
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE USED THIS AS JUSTIFICATION FOR
HIGHER CLOUD COVER AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...AND COULD SEE THE
TRI STATE AREA CLEAR BEFORE MORNING. SOME LATE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE HERE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EASE. RECENT LIGHT RAIN
ALSO HELPS THE CAUSE.
WITH BETTER INSOLATION IN THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES WILL IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG MID LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM THE MS
VALLEY...NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS ARE
IN DESCENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY IN THEIR QPF
FIELDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THE SREF LAGS THE NAM FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. PREFER THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.
MODELS SUGGEST STRONG H850 SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 40 TO 60 KNOTS ALONG
THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER FROM THE MIXING LAYER OF 26 TO 36 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...INCREASED WIND GUST IN THE 30S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
IN THE 20S LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO
STAY LIQUID.
THE NAM KEEPS MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE LOW LEVELS. SUSPECT
LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OR
MOVE EAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST LATE
THURSDAY.
DRY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
USED THE ALL CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FORESEEN FROM 24 HOURS AGO...IS TO BE
A BIT FASTER BY 3 TO 6 HOURS BRINGING THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ESE FRIDAY EVENING...IN THE LOW LEVEL COLD POOL FRIDAY
EVENING. LIKEWISE...WILL BE A FEW HOURS FASTER LIFTING OUT THAT COLD
POOL SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. STILL WILL LEAVE 20 TO 40
POPS OVER OUR NE COUNTIES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN SHIFTED A FEW HOURS EARLIER.
AGAIN A COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES NOT COLD ENOUGH ALOFT...AND MOISTURE NOT DEEP
ENOUGH...FOR GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE CLOUDS.
WILL STILL HAVE NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY EVENING OF 20 TO
30 MPH... WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850 MB FLOW STILL RUNNING
AROUND 40 KNOTS.
WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS FIGURED IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT... STILL WENT A BIT COLDER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT CWA.
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HAVE CLOUDS/MOISTURE INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN 12Z GFS INCREASING
POPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF... WITH A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WEDNESDAY THRU 06Z THURSDAY...
AT 06Z BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXTEND FROM
CMH-CRW-I16. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO ONLY SLOWLY ERODE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. AT 06Z...VFR CLR AT HTS...VFR SCT STRATOCU AT
CRW...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT PKB BKW CKB AND EKN. WITH WINDS NEAR
CALM AT HTS AM GOING WITH LIFR FOG 10-12Z.
BY 14Z VFR MOSTLY CLEAR AT HTS...CRW...BKW...PKB BUT MVFR HANGING
AT CKB AND EKN TIL. BY 18Z...VFR WITH JUST THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.
AFTER 00Z...A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO AFFECT. MID
CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE WEST...LOWERING TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY 06Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLEARING TO VFR MAY OCCUR FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 11/11/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1017 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Visibilities across the CWA have been improving this morning with
only some patchy fog left across the area. Low clouds remain in
place though, but we are starting to see some thinning of the
clouds based on visible satellite. This trend should continue with
improvement by early afternoon. The clouds will hold across the
area longer than originally expected so have slowed the hourly
temperature trend. If we do break out of the clouds this afternoon
as forecast, then the high temperatures still seem reasonable and
thus have made no adjustments there.
&&
.Prev Discussion [632 AM EST]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
While the short term period will be dry, significant changes to
the weather pattern will start on Thursday night into Friday as a
dry cold front moves across the area. Initially, Thursday will be
a warm dry day before the cold front arrives Thursday night.
Thereafter, much cooler and drier air will spread in across the
region. High temperatures on Friday will struggle to get into the
lower 70s across much of the region under moderate cold advection.
That being said, the real cold air won`t arrive until Saturday.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
In the wake of a dry cold front, the region will be well to the
west of a large area of high pressure across the Central Plains.
This will set up a rather tight gradient on Friday night that will
result in a cool, but breezy night with lows generally uniform
across the inland areas in the mid 40s. As the high moves further
east into the Tennessee River Valley on Saturday, the colder and
drier airmass will become more established, with highs only in the
low to mid 60s expected during the daytime.
The big question with this event will be how cold temperatures
will get on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Interestingly,
model guidance this cycle has actually warmed a couple of degrees
at our MOS sites for Sunday morning. As has been the case for the
last few days, the model blend guidance we utilize has been
several degrees warmer than the coldest individual operational
models. Seeing the GFS and Euro MOS start to move back toward the
warmer side, increases confidence in a warmer solution for
Saturday night. As a result, will show temperatures in the low to
mid 40s across the region. This is due to the high pressure center
remaining across Eastern Tennessee and the pressure gradient
across the NE Gulf never truly supporting a stretch of calm winds
overnight.
High pressure will continue to move east into the Western Atlantic
through Monday, resulting in a modification of the local airmass,
leading to a slow warming trend. After Monday, the forecast
becomes considerably more uncertain. The Euro and GFS are having
difficulty resolving the progress of the next trough coming across
the Western CONUS. The trend from yesterday and again this morning
is for a slower progression, thus have kept PoPs Tue-Wed on the
lower side of guidance. Temperatures by Monday afternoon should be
back above normal with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the lower
50s.
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Data from our 12z KTAE raob showed a very
shallow moisture layer just above ground level. Despite this
limited vertical extent, there were extensive IFR (or lower) cigs
across our region, as well as areas of MVFR-IFR fog. Once there
are a few breaks in the OVC (mid- late morning), conditions will
improve. (The latest HRRR maintains low cigs for much of the day,
but this seems unrealistic). The model consensus has areas of fog
developing toward dawn Thursday, but not much in terms of low
cigs. Surface winds will be light and variable today.
.Marine...
Light winds will prevail through most of the week. As we head into
the weekend, northeast winds will increase to advisory levels
Friday night in the wake of a cold front passage.
.Fire Weather...
The main concern will be the unusually low dispersion values today,
due to very light winds and relatively low mixing heights. A much
cooler and drier airmass will reach the forecast area this weekend,
but it`s too early to tell if there is a Red Flag threat.
.Hydrology...
The Choctawhatchee River at Geneva has crested and the next
observational site at Pittman in N Florida has nearly crested as
well. Expect Caryville to continue rising over the next 24 hours
before cresting just above 13 feet in the minor flood category.
Moderate flooding will continue for sometime further downstream at
Bruce. Sufficient water appears to be in the system to support an
eventual crest on Saturday afternoon above 15.5 feet.
Over in the Chipola River, runoff from Sunday is now resulting in
sharper rises at Marianna. It looks as though the river will crest
there late Thursday just below flood stage, though it will be
close. With these increased flows passing Marianna, it`s possible
that by Saturday, Altha could approach flood stage around 22 feet.
Releases from Woodruff Dam were increased on Tuesday afternoon to
around 45kcfs, which is more than sufficient to result in
downstream flooding at Blountstown, which should reach at least 16
feet late tonight. The combination of these higher flows
progressing past Blountstown could cause some minor flooding
issues further downstream near Wewahitchka as the crest wave from
the Chipola River tries to discharge through the weekend.
Over on the Sopchoppy, the river finally looks to be cresting
after a more than 60 hour rise following heavy rainfall late last
weekend. The crest this morning around 26 feet is just 2 feet
below flood stage - an impressive feat considering the site
started around 8 feet Sunday morning. Fortunately, no significant
additional heavy rainfall is anticipated over the next several
days, which will allow plenty of time for the Sopchoppy to get at
least back below action stage.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 77 55 82 57 72 / 0 0 0 10 0
Panama City 74 62 80 55 71 / 0 0 0 10 0
Dothan 73 57 78 48 68 / 0 0 10 10 0
Albany 74 53 79 48 70 / 0 0 10 10 0
Valdosta 77 54 83 56 71 / 0 0 0 10 0
Cross City 81 54 85 59 77 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 75 61 80 61 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
632 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Data from our 12z KTAE raob showed a very
shallow moisture layer just above ground level. Despite this
limited vertical extent, there were extensive IFR (or lower) cigs
across our region, as well as areas of MVFR-IFR fog. Once there
are a few breaks in the OVC (mid- late morning), conditions will
improve. (The latest HRRR maintains low cigs for much of the day,
but this seems unrealistic). The model consensus has areas of fog
developing toward dawn Thursday, but not much in terms of low
cigs. Surface winds will be light and variable today.
&&
.Prev Discussion [344 AM EST]...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 10 pm EDT surface analysis showed a large area of high pressure
across much of the eastern CONUS. Skies were overcast with low
clouds across our region, even though the moisture layer was very
shallow (according to the 7 pm KTAE sounding). With gentle downward
motion and drying we expect the morning clouds and fog to gradually
dissipate by afternoon. Highs will be above average, in the mid 70s
north to around 80s south.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
While the short term period will be dry, significant changes to
the weather pattern will start on Thursday night into Friday as a
dry cold front moves across the area. Initially, Thursday will be
a warm dry day before the cold front arrives Thursday night.
Thereafter, much cooler and drier air will spread in across the
region. High temperatures on Friday will struggle to get into the
lower 70s across much of the region under moderate cold advection.
That being said, the real cold air won`t arrive until Saturday.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
In the wake of a dry cold front, the region will be well to the
west of a large area of high pressure across the Central Plains.
This will set up a rather tight gradient on Friday night that will
result in a cool, but breezy night with lows generally uniform
across the inland areas in the mid 40s. As the high moves further
east into the Tennessee River Valley on Saturday, the colder and
drier airmass will become more established, with highs only in the
low to mid 60s expected during the daytime.
The big question with this event will be how cold temperatures
will get on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Interestingly,
model guidance this cycle has actually warmed a couple of degrees
at our MOS sites for Sunday morning. As has been the case for the
last few days, the model blend guidance we utilize has been
several degrees warmer than the coldest individual operational
models. Seeing the GFS and Euro MOS start to move back toward the
warmer side, increases confidence in a warmer solution for
Saturday night. As a result, will show temperatures in the low to
mid 40s across the region. This is due to the high pressure center
remaining across Eastern Tennessee and the pressure gradient
across the NE Gulf never truly supporting a stretch of calm winds
overnight.
High pressure will continue to move east into the Western Atlantic
through Monday, resulting in a modification of the local airmass,
leading to a slow warming trend. After Monday, the forecast
becomes considerably more uncertain. The Euro and GFS are having
difficulty resolving the progress of the next trough coming across
the Western CONUS. The trend from yesterday and again this morning
is for a slower progression, thus have kept PoPs Tue-Wed on the
lower side of guidance. Temperatures by Monday afternoon should be
back above normal with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the lower
50s.
.Marine...
Light winds will prevail through most of the week. As we head into
the weekend, northeast winds will increase to advisory levels
Friday night in the wake of a cold front passage.
.Fire Weather...
The main concern will be the unusually low dispersion values today,
due to very light winds and relatively low mixing heights. A much
cooler and drier airmass will reach the forecast area this weekend,
but it`s too early to tell if there is a Red Flag threat.
.Hydrology...
The Choctawhatchee River at Geneva has crested and the next
observational site at Pittman in N Florida has nearly crested as
well. Expect Caryville to continue rising over the next 24 hours
before cresting just above 13 feet in the minor flood category.
Moderate flooding will continue for sometime further downstream at
Bruce. Sufficient water appears to be in the system to support an
eventual crest on Saturday afternoon above 15.5 feet.
Over in the Chipola River, runoff from Sunday is now resulting in
sharper rises at Marianna. It looks as though the river will crest
there late Thursday just below flood stage, though it will be
close. With these increased flows passing Marianna, it`s possible
that by Saturday, Altha could approach flood stage around 22 feet.
Releases from Woodruff Dam were increased on Tuesday afternoon to
around 45kcfs, which is more than sufficient to result in
downstream flooding at Blountstown, which should reach at least 16
feet late tonight. The combination of these higher flows
progressing past Blountstown could cause some minor flooding
issues further downstream near Wewahitchka as the crest wave from
the Chipola River tries to discharge through the weekend.
Over on the Sopchoppy, the river finally looks to be cresting
after a more than 60 hour rise following heavy rainfall late last
weekend. The crest this morning around 26 feet is just 2 feet
below flood stage - an impressive feat considering the site
started around 8 feet Sunday morning. Fortunately, no significant
additional heavy rainfall is anticipated over the next several
days, which will allow plenty of time for the Sopchoppy to get at
least back below action stage.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 77 55 82 57 72 / 0 0 0 10 0
Panama City 74 62 80 55 71 / 0 0 0 10 0
Dothan 73 57 78 48 68 / 0 0 10 10 0
Albany 74 53 79 48 70 / 0 0 10 10 0
Valdosta 77 54 83 56 71 / 0 0 0 10 0
Cross City 81 54 85 59 77 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 75 61 80 61 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
545 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
TODAY WILL FEATURE DYNAMIC AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH SEVERAL
POTENTIAL HAZARDS. A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL EJECT EAST NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY...DEEPENING RAPIDLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OVER IOWA
BY SUNSET. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...EARLY THIS MORNING...WE ARE ALREADY
SEEING RAPID PROLIFERATION OF LOW/MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
IOWA. SOME AREAS ALONG THIS TROUGH FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN IOWA ARE REPORTING LIGHT FOG...BUT ITS DEVELOPMENT IS BEING
HAMPERED BY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE DEPICTING A BREAKOUT OF DENSE FOG WITHIN THE TROUGH
AXIS...MAINLY AFFECTING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...LATER THIS MORNING
TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT SEEMS MITIGATED BY THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...AND NO ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED.
WILL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN CASE ONE
BECOMES WARRANTED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LATER THIS MORNING...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER FORCING ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF THE
LOW. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WHILE THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE HANGING ONTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF...THE HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC AND DEPICTING
MORE LIKE DRIZZLE OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN
SOMEWHAT IN THE MORNING BUT KEPT THEM LARGELY IN THE CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE...WITH OVERCAST SKIES PREVAILING PAST MIDDAY. IN ANY
EVENT NO REAL IMPACT IS FORESEEN FROM ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS EVEN THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST TOWARD NOON.
IN TERMS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A
DRYLINE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH ROCKETING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW/COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS SOMETIME IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES SO...WE SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING ALLOWING FOR
SOME MODEST DESTABILIZATION. WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG
FORCING AND WIND SHEAR/FLOW FIELDS THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHAT TIME CLEARING WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND WHERE
ANY SUCH STORMS WILL INITIATE. HRRR/RAP/NMM/ARW RUNS CONSISTENTLY
BRING A SHARP CLEARING EDGE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 20
OR 21Z WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THAT EDGE. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH CONCEPTUAL MODELS AND SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY WAY THAT
SUCH DISCRETE CELLS COULD TAP INTO THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AS BEHIND THE DRYLINE SURFACE WINDS WILL GO SOUTH SOUTHWEST
AND SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. AT THE SAME TIME...IF THE
STORMS REALLY ARE TIED RIGHT ONTO THE BACK EDGE OF THE LARGE LOW
CLOUD SHIELD...THEN THERE MAY NOT BE TIME TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF
THEM AND THEY COULD BE ELEVATED. HRRR SURFACE CAPE FIELDS SEEM TO
INDICATE THIS WILL BE THE CASE. ALL IN ALL...INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT
FOR SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN
IOWA...HOWEVER IT WILL BE A VERY NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN
TIME AND SPACE AND THINGS WILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT. WE
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY FOR
POSSIBLE WATCH/WARNING ISSUANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FINALLY...AS AFTERNOON STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS INTO IOWA TOWARD SUNSET...VERY STRONG WINDS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THIS IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE LONG
TERM SECTION BELOW...AND WIND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE RACING QUICKLY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT
REMAINS HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY INCREASES AS STRONG PRESSURE
RISES LIFT INTO CENTRAL IOWA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 70-80
UBARS/KM STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH PRESSURE RISES OF 12-15 MB/6
HRS. A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE NEARLY COINCIDENT
TO THE REGION WITH MAX EXPECTED WINDS. WHILE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL HELP MIX THE LOW LEVELS TO NEAR 900 MB WITH 50+ KTS OF WIND
IN THE MIXED LAYER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VERTICAL ASCENT BETWEEN
925-700 MB MAY LIMIT PEAK WINDS A BIT. THAT SAID...PLENTY OF
INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING DOWN TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM THE
DSM METRO AND WEST AND SUSPECT THE POSSIBILITY IT WILL NEED TO BE
EXPANDED FURTHER. SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE
SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 65 MPH BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. STILL POTENTIAL FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE
TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN IOWA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS AND ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHEAST. THE SUBSIDENCE REGION OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
ARRIVE OVER CENTRAL IOWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH WIND CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET ON
THURSDAY THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY THURSDAY.
VERY DRY DEWPOINTS ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SFC
RIDGE PASSING ACROSS IOWA FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR DES MOINES TO REACH FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS FALL PENDING THE TIMING OF RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE THAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERN TROUGH BRINGS
SOUTHWEST FLOW BACK TO THE MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...11/12Z
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...INITIALLY IN THE
FORM OF LOWERING CIGS AND DEVELOPMENT OF BR...THEN EXPANSION OF
SHRA/TSRA...AND FINALLY VERY STRONG WINDS SURGING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. HAVE TAKEN BEST SHOT AT TIMING THESE VARIOUS FEATURES AND
CHANGES IN THE 12Z TAFS...BUT EXPECT AMENDMENTS TO BE PLENTIFUL
TODAY DUE TO RAPIDLY CHANGING FORECAST AND CONDITIONS WITH A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHING AND MOVING OVER THE AREA.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-
STORY-WARREN-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
MADISON-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-STORY-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
ADAMS-APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-
GRUNDY-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
607 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON REMAINS THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT
TERM. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND REMAINING GUSTY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SRN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS ONGOING OVER WRN
KANSAS AND A SFC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED NWD THROUGH NEB INTO WRN
MINNESOTA. THIS WEAK N-S ORIENTED TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EWD THIS MORNING AND COMBINE WITH BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM
STRONG DIV ALOFT TO SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS N-CENTRAL MN
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THE PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA
WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3
INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT AND A LAYER OF
MID-LEVEL F-GEN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH MODEST WAA AND PWATS AROUND
0.75 TO 1 INCH WILL ALL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAIN FROM
THE TWIN CITIES TO THE HAYWARD LAKES REGION AND IRONWOOD MI.
THE RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES FROM CENTRAL IA TO
NEAR GREEN BAY WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL ALLOW A STRONG
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
PRES GRAD WILL INDUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. ANOTHER CONCERN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
FORMATION OF FOG ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
REMAIN POSITIONED OVER A RELATIVELY COOL LAKE. THE ADDITION OF
MOISTURE INTO THE COOL NEAR SFC LAYER IN THE FORM OF RAIN WILL ALLOW
FOR FOG TO FORM.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES SLOWLY EWD BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. WILL ALSO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
DIABATIC COOLING FROM THE LARGE DUMP OF RAIN DUMPED INTO THE
COLUMN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAIN TO QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SOME TIME LATE THURSDAY MORNING OR DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF
THIS OCCURS SOONER THAN EXPECTED...SNOW TOTALS MAY END UP BEING
HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE THUR AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER QUEBEC AND A SECONDARY...BUT
STILL POTENT...RE-ENFORCING UPPER LOW MOVES IN QUICKLY FROM THE NE
AND PHASES WITH THE LOW TO THE EAST AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ADDITIONAL
LIFT TO KEEP THE SNOW GOING. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW
THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND. THE HIGHEST AMTS WILL BE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE IN NW WI. THE TWIN PORTS...CLOSE TO THE LAKE
WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE AROUND AN INCH...BUT LOCATIONS FURTHER FROM
THE LAKE MAY APPROACH 2 TO 3 INCHES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE N/NE TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND
REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ONSET OF COLDER TEMPERATURES...ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
CLOSE TO 40 ON THURSDAY...COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND SNOWFALL
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF WEAK LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY ALONG THE ERN PORTIONS OF BAYFIELD COUNTY AND
NRN DOUGLAS...AND OVER FAR NERN IRON COUNTY WHERE THE NNW FETCH OFF
THE LAKE WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 6
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET THE
NEXT SHIFT MAKE THE CALL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WELL WEST OUT OF THE MAIN LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND ON FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING MOVING OVER THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OVER THE SNOWBELT REGION OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES DUE
TO A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONAL LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SNOWBELT...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE. ONE OTHER AREA WHERE
SNOW MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME ACCUMULATION FRIDAY MORNING IS
ACROSS DOUGLAS AND FAR NORTHWEST BAYFIELD COUNTIES INTO FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY DUE TO A GRAVITY WAVE. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH GOOD MOISTURE EARLY. DRIER AIR DOES MOVE IN RATHER
QUICKLY...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO WITH THE
SNOW ENDING BY LATE MORNING.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE FLOW BACKING
TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING. HIGHS SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST MONDAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR RAIN ON MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER MOVING
THE LOW THROUGH VERSUS A MUCH SLOWER ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT
FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER THE OTHER AND HAVE CHANCES FOR RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. IF
THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING CORRECT SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL AGAIN
OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THIS
TROUGH AND HAVE MOVED INTO KBRD/KINL. THE RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE
ON THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND CONTINUES TO MOVE THEM SLOWLY EAST. WE
KEPT THEM OUT OF KHIB/KDLH FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS UNLIKELY TO REACH
KDLH BUT COULD IMPACT KHIB BRIEFLY.
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO IOWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN IFR FOR ALL AREAS AS RAIN MOVES
NORTH. THE RAIN WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN IMPACTING KHYR.
THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THEN
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND BE MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 46 38 39 30 / 30 80 80 70
INL 44 33 36 26 / 20 60 70 70
BRD 45 35 37 29 / 30 50 40 50
HYR 50 40 40 28 / 70 100 80 80
ASX 49 41 42 29 / 50 100 90 90
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST FRIDAY
FOR LSZ121-146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR LSZ140>143.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
604 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2015
Long-advertised storm system is beginning to work its way into
the Plains early today. All of the 00z model runs and subsequent
high-res guidance has slowed the movement of the system just a bit,
with the intense upper level low now progged to reach western Iowa
by this evening. This also means a slower eastward progression of
the strong cold front across the area, with the front now progged to
be approaching our far western counties by late in the afternoon.
Unfortunately, lots of questions remain with regards to specific
evolution of precip, and the possibly of severe convection. All of
the solutions at least hint at some elevated shower activity
developing well ahead of the frontal boundary. While some of this
may be suggesting saturation that leads to clouds rather than actual
precip, there does seem to be some consensus of a higher probability
of showers developing and working across the eastern Ozarks this
afternoon, ahead of the main cold front.
Although models have slowed the system a bit, they remain in good
agreement with earlier solutions that kinematics with this system
will be quite intense and very favorable for the support of severe
convection, with model consensus indicating at least 80kts of 0-6km
shear, along with a favorably backed low level flow in advance of
the surface low. The primary question has been...and still
is...whether there will be enough instability to sustain convection,
and elevated showers in the warm sector ahead of the cold front
would certainly suppress heating and potential instability. Given
such intense wind fields it will not take much to storms to approach
severe levels, but as noted by SPC in the day 1 outlook it could be
that if we don`t have enough instability the strong shear could rip
the updrafts apart. Certainly, any storm that is able to maintain
updraft intensity will have the potential to become severe. It`s
also interesting that the covection allowing models seem to support
the idea of cells remaining discrete through late afternoon, which
would certainly enhance severe potential if that were to occur.
Bottom line...we probably won`t have a good handle on exact
potential until AMS shows it`s hand WRT instability during the
afternoon. One thing is certain however...if the storms do go there
forward speed is going to be very high...likely over 50kts.
Wind advisory currently runs from 18z this afternoon until 12z
Thursday morning, and not planning any changes at this time. While
it will be windy this afternoon, it may be that low clouds and
limited heating will keep gusts from quite reaching criteria.
However, by tonight this system should become quite the wind machine
in our CWA...see additional details in the long term discussion that
follows.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2015
(Tonight)
The tonight period will begin with the cold front beginning oriented
roughly from NNE to SSW just west of the Mississippi River. As
alluded to above...this is a few hours slower than it looked 24
hours ago. Severe weather will remain the primary concern along the
boundary as a very narrow instability axis combined with extrememly
strong wind shear with height will likely yield some severe weather
early in the period with damaging winds and tornadoes possible.
By 0600 UTC...front should be east of CWA with threat of severe
weather also shifting eastward. Attention will then turn to very
strong gradient winds. Low-level cyclone will continue to deepen as
it heads northeast from Iowa into eastern Wisconsin by late tonight.
Very strong gradient winds are still anticipated across much of the
CWA...particularly the northern third. Strongest wind gusts look to
be between 0300 and 0900 UTC tonight across portions of northeast
Missouri and west-central Illinois with wind gusts of 40-45+ knots.
If the GFS soundings turn out to be correct...would not be surprised
if high wind warning criteria is neared.
Low temperatures tonight will be a bit cooler behind the front but
still near normal for early/mid November. Forecast lows for tonight
range from the low to mid 40s across the bi-state area.
(Thursday - Sunday)
Strong westerly winds will continue into at least the first part of
Thursday. Wind gusts should be below advisory criteria...but
subsequent shifts will have to keep an eye on this to see if an
extension is warrented for portions of northeast Missouri and west-
central Illinois.
Used a blend of the warmer MAV and the cooler MET guidance for highs
on Thursday due to a westerly sfc wind and a clear sky but also
strong low-level CAA. Near normal high temperatures are anticipated.
A dry and seasonable weather pattern will continue through this
weekend with northwest flow aloft. Cooler conditions are expected on
Friday and Friday night behind a secondary cold front and
reinforcing shot of colder air. Highs on Friday will be about 5
degrees below normal but return flow already begins for Saturday so
a quick bounce back in temperatures are likely.
(Sunday Night - Tuesday)
Increasing clouds and another chance of rain begins on Sunday night
as another strong trough digs into the four corners region. Models
are not sure how to handle the evolution of this trough this far out
which is no surprise. Current NWP guidance suggests a piece will
eject out and give our region a chance of rain early next week with
the main system holding back and not affecting the mid-Mississippi
Valley until after this forecast package.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2015
Low level moisture continues to work from the Plains into the
mid-Mississippi Valley early today, leading to the development of
fairly widespread stratus. The leading edge of this cloud deck is
between 4-5kft, but in the deeper moisture over western MO cigs
have dipped into the 2-3kft range. Expect these MVFR cigs to work
across the CWA during the morning...moving into the KCOU and KUIN
areas within the next 1-2 hours and into the STL metro TAF sites
by mid morning, with this timing primarily based on the RAP 925MB
RH prog. Expect 2-3kft cigs to hold in the warm sector for much
of the day as the storm system winds up over the Plains,
increasing south-southeast winds into the 20-30kt range during the
afternoon. As far as precip timing is concerned, have leaned
towards the HRRR runs in attempting to indicate elevated showers
developing ahead of the front during the afternoon, with the
possibility for the most intense convection being tied to late
afternoon/early evening fropa. This fropa should be tied to a
brief clearing in the low clouds, and winds increasing even
further as they swing around to the west. Wind gust of 30-40 kts
should be common across the area overnight tonight, with
additional low clouds in the 2500-4000 ft range sprialling back
into the area in the wake of surface low.
Specifics for KSTL: Bases of stratus deck should lower into the
2-3kft range by mid morning with these ceilings holding into the
afternoon as showers develop across the region, followed by a
brief shot of convection as strong cold front surges into the area
in the 00-02z time frame. South-southeast winds will increase
during the day as low pressure intensifies over the plains with
gusts to around 30kts this afternoon. Early evening fropa should
cause low clouds to briefly clear out, with a shift in the winds
to the southwest and west accompanied by a jump in wind speeds.
Wind gusts in excess of 30kts expected during the overnight
hours, with VFR clouds/bases 3-5kft.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 68 43 57 37 / 60 80 5 0
Quincy 66 42 55 34 / 80 80 5 0
Columbia 68 42 58 32 / 70 10 0 0
Jefferson City 69 43 58 34 / 70 10 0 0
Salem 67 46 56 35 / 50 90 5 0
Farmington 66 44 58 35 / 60 70 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Thursday FOR Audrain
MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
300 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Powerful November storm system is taking aim on central Illinois
this evening, with 20z/2pm surface chart showing a 991mb low over
southwest Iowa. Strong to severe thunderstorms are currently
developing in the vicinity of the low and arcing southward along a
trailing cold front into north-central Missouri. Further
south...another area of showers/storms is developing in association
with the warm conveyor belt across the Ozarks. As the low continues
to deepen and lift toward western Wisconsin, the storms currently
across northern Missouri will shift eastward into west-central
Illinois early this evening. Based on radar timing tools and
consistent forecasts from both the HRRR and 4km NAM, it appears
convection will arrive in the Illinois River Valley between 6pm and
8pm, along the I-55 corridor between 7pm and 9pm, and further east
to the I-57 corridor between 9pm and midnight. Damaging wind gusts
will be the primary severe weather threat across the western KILX
CWA early this evening, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out due to impressive amounts of low-level wind shear. As the
storms race E/NE, the severe wind threat will decrease east of the I-
55 corridor by mid to late evening as the storms tend to weaken with
time. Once the storms pass, very strong gradient winds will develop
as low pressure continues to deepen over Wisconsin. Westerly winds
will increase to between 20 and 30 mph overnight, with gusts
reaching the 40 to 50 mph range. As a result, a Wind Advisory will
remain in effect for all locations along/north of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
The intense storm system (987 mb) is expected to be over central
thru northeast Wisconsin by Thursday morning with a very tight
pressure gradient across a large portion of the region. Forecast
soundings suggest the potential for 25 to 35 mph sustained winds
with gusts around 50 mph at times into the afternoon hours before we
see a very slow diminishing trend towards evening. With the surface
low pulling away from the area rather quickly, the wrap-around
moisture is expected to lift northeast as well and shift into far
northern IL or southern Wisconsin by evening. A secondary upper
trof will swing southeast across the lower Great Lakes Thursday
night and Friday with gusty winds expected with that system as well,
although not as strong as what we will see tonight and Thursday.
The weather should quiet down for Friday night through the weekend
as high pressure settles across the area. We should start out on
the cool side early in the weekend but as the high shifts off to
our east on Sunday, southerly winds will bring in milder air for
Sunday afternoon. However, it doesn`t look like the nice weather
will hold very long over our area as an active southwest flow
pattern continues into next week with the first of two significant
systems that will affect the Midwest. Showers chances increase
somewhat late Sunday night into Monday, and especially Monday night
into Tuesday as the upper wave tracks across the region.
Unfortunately, the upper wave and associated surface low will not be
a quick mover and will have ample opportunity to bring up some
significant rainfall to our area early next week with POPs in the
forecast through Thursday. The pattern will hold thru the rest of the
week with the latest ECMWF indicating another strong upper level system
poised over the southwest U.S. ready to spread precip back into our area
either late next week or during the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Latest high-res models continue to suggest timing of main line of
convection will be between 00z and 06z at the central Illinois
terminals. Based on the speed of the mid-level flow and the fact
that models often do not accelerate convective lines fast enough
in this type of situation...prefer the slightly faster 4km NAM
solution. As a result, have timed the convection into KPIA between
01z and 03z...then further east to KCMI between 03z and 05z. There
are some indications that scattered storms may develop well ahead
of the approaching cold front...potentially impacting KCMI
earlier in the evening. Will only carry VCTS at this time...but
will continue to monitor later model runs and radar imagery for
possible updates to timing. Once the storms pass...very strong
westerly winds will develop tonight into Thursday. Forecast
soundings and numeric guidance both indicate gusts reaching 35 to
45kt.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1157 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
16z/10am surface chart shows 993mb low over north-central Kansas,
with cold front extending southward through Oklahoma and Texas.
Strong warm advection ahead of the low has resulted in mostly
cloudy skies across all but the far E/SE KILX CWA. Scattered
showers are beginning to develop across southern Iowa/northern
Missouri and these are expected to track into west-central
Illinois west of the I-55 corridor over the next couple of hours.
Latest HRRR suggests showers may become more widespread further
east into the area by early afternoon: however, based on dry low-
level airmass think this may be a bit too aggressive. As a
result, will generally keep PoPs confined to locations west of
I-57 through the day. Main line of thunderstorms is still on
target this evening along the advancing cold front. 12z NAM shows
storms reaching the Mississippi River around Quincy by 00z...then
quickly spreading eastward and exiting the CWA by 06z. Severe
weather risk remains in place, especially along/west of the
Illinois River in closer proximity to the surface low track where
low-level wind shear will be maximized. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary threat, with an isolated tornado possible. The
storms will tend to diminish as they track further eastward after
sunset, with only a minimal chance of a severe wind gust
along/east of I-57 by mid to late evening. Have made some timing
adjustments for PoPs today and tonight, otherwise the current
forecast is in good shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Main weather feature of interest today, a rapidly intensifying area
of low pressure, is currently centered over eastern Colorado. This
low is expected to deepen significantly today as it ejects to Iowa
by 00Z Thursday (6 pm this evening). This continues to be a little
slower than previously anticipated, meaning the bulk of the rainfall
with this system (and severe weather risk) should hold off until
tonight as the trailing cold front swings through the area. Still,
some shower/thunderstorm development can`t be ruled out in the
strong WAA/isentropic lift regime in the warm sector to the east of
the system this afternoon. Have pulled back on PoPs until mid-late
afternoon, and areas near the Indiana border have a pretty good shot
of staying dry through the daytime hours. While gradient winds will
be increasing today with the approach of the system, do not expect a
significant severe storm risk until right along/ahead of the cold
front tonight. Significant cloud cover today will limit surface
heating, but this will be considerably offset by the strengthening
southerly winds. As such, expect most of the forecast area to see
daytime highs topping out in the 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
To summarize, low CAPE, high shear. Tonight`s thunderstorms are
lacking instability in a big way, with little to no CAPE to be found
in the model soundings of a SB parcel. MUCAPE, however, is in the
500-800J/kg range. And the front will be moving quickly through the
region ahead of a rapidly deepening low with the neg tilt at 500mb.
The lack of instability may be countered by the lift along the
front, but thunderstorms will have a difficult time sustaining an
updraft. If thunderstorms develop and manage to sustain for any
length of time, the shear does point to the potential for isolated
tornado development in a more organized storm. The bigger threat is
the winds. The tightening pressure gradient puts significant
sustained winds over the area anyway, and as a result, the Wind
Advisory is in place for tonight. But the upper low is deepening as
well, with gradients increasing aloft. Any rain shower will have
the ability to pull down stronger winds from the mid levels, even in
the absence of a significant storm. Wind gusts so far in the
forecast for tonight are already in the 35 to 45 mph range, with
isolated higher winds possible. It will be a windy night. The
severity of the storms will vary. Severe weather remains possible
through the overnight, however. All of Central Illinois remains in
an SPC risk, with areas roughly west of a line from Bloomington to
Shelbyville in an Enhanced Risk.
Storms should come to an end quickly around or just after midnight,
but the winds will remain in place, increasing towards dawn. Gusts
to 40 mph also expected all day on Thursday and the Wind Advisory
will continue. For now, the wind advisory ends there, although the
northern half of the state remains windy through Friday,
particularly with the gust to 35 mph expected again Friday
afternoon. Cooler air in place will keep the highs in the 40s for
most of Central Illinois for Friday, combined with the wind to make
a chilly day. Friday night, temps will drop below the freezing mark
under the high pressure ridge with light winds in the overnight
setting up a good radiational cooling night. Winds finally picking
up a southerly component again for the weekend to start another slow
warming trend, to near 60F by the later on Sunday. Towards the end
of the weekend and into the first few days of the next week,
southwesterly flow over the region starts to set up and what looks
like a frontal system stalling out over the region providing a focus
for showers for a couple of days. Expect to see some fine tuning
and shifts in the forecast overall in that time frame...but for now
Monday and Tuesday remain wet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Latest high-res models continue to suggest timing of main line of
convection will be between 00z and 06z at the central Illinois
terminals. Based on the speed of the mid-level flow and the fact
that models often do not accelerate convective lines fast enough
in this type of situation...prefer the slightly faster 4km NAM
solution. As a result, have timed the convection into KPIA between
01z and 03z...then further east to KCMI between 03z and 05z. There
are some indications that scattered storms may develop well ahead
of the approaching cold front...potentially impacting KCMI
earlier in the evening. Will only carry VCTS at this time...but
will continue to monitor later model runs and radar imagery for
possible updates to timing. Once the storms pass...very strong
westerly winds will develop tonight into Thursday. Forecast
soundings and numeric guidance both indicate gusts reaching 35 to
45kt.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
16z/10am surface chart shows 993mb low over north-central Kansas,
with cold front extending southward through Oklahoma and Texas.
Strong warm advection ahead of the low has resulted in mostly
cloudy skies across all but the far E/SE KILX CWA. Scattered
showers are beginning to develop across southern Iowa/northern
Missouri and these are expected to track into west-central
Illinois west of the I-55 corridor over the next couple of hours.
Latest HRRR suggests showers may become more widespread further
east into the area by early afternoon: however, based on dry low-
level airmass think this may be a bit too aggressive. As a
result, will generally keep PoPs confined to locations west of
I-57 through the day. Main line of thunderstorms is still on
target this evening along the advancing cold front. 12z NAM shows
storms reaching the Mississippi River around Quincy by 00z...then
quickly spreading eastward and exiting the CWA by 06z. Severe
weather risk remains in place, especially along/west of the
Illinois River in closer proximity to the surface low track where
low-level wind shear will be maximized. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary threat, with an isolated tornado possible. The
storms will tend to diminish as they track further eastward after
sunset, with only a minimal chance of a severe wind gust
along/east of I-57 by mid to late evening. Have made some timing
adjustments for PoPs today and tonight, otherwise the current
forecast is in good shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Main weather feature of interest today, a rapidly intensifying area
of low pressure, is currently centered over eastern Colorado. This
low is expected to deepen significantly today as it ejects to Iowa
by 00Z Thursday (6 pm this evening). This continues to be a little
slower than previously anticipated, meaning the bulk of the rainfall
with this system (and severe weather risk) should hold off until
tonight as the trailing cold front swings through the area. Still,
some shower/thunderstorm development can`t be ruled out in the
strong WAA/isentropic lift regime in the warm sector to the east of
the system this afternoon. Have pulled back on PoPs until mid-late
afternoon, and areas near the Indiana border have a pretty good shot
of staying dry through the daytime hours. While gradient winds will
be increasing today with the approach of the system, do not expect a
significant severe storm risk until right along/ahead of the cold
front tonight. Significant cloud cover today will limit surface
heating, but this will be considerably offset by the strengthening
southerly winds. As such, expect most of the forecast area to see
daytime highs topping out in the 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
To summarize, low CAPE, high shear. Tonight`s thunderstorms are
lacking instability in a big way, with little to no CAPE to be found
in the model soundings of a SB parcel. MUCAPE, however, is in the
500-800J/kg range. And the front will be moving quickly through the
region ahead of a rapidly deepening low with the neg tilt at 500mb.
The lack of instability may be countered by the lift along the
front, but thunderstorms will have a difficult time sustaining an
updraft. If thunderstorms develop and manage to sustain for any
length of time, the shear does point to the potential for isolated
tornado development in a more organized storm. The bigger threat is
the winds. The tightening pressure gradient puts significant
sustained winds over the area anyway, and as a result, the Wind
Advisory is in place for tonight. But the upper low is deepening as
well, with gradients increasing aloft. Any rain shower will have
the ability to pull down stronger winds from the mid levels, even in
the absence of a significant storm. Wind gusts so far in the
forecast for tonight are already in the 35 to 45 mph range, with
isolated higher winds possible. It will be a windy night. The
severity of the storms will vary. Severe weather remains possible
through the overnight, however. All of Central Illinois remains in
an SPC risk, with areas roughly west of a line from Bloomington to
Shelbyville in an Enhanced Risk.
Storms should come to an end quickly around or just after midnight,
but the winds will remain in place, increasing towards dawn. Gusts
to 40 mph also expected all day on Thursday and the Wind Advisory
will continue. For now, the wind advisory ends there, although the
northern half of the state remains windy through Friday,
particularly with the gust to 35 mph expected again Friday
afternoon. Cooler air in place will keep the highs in the 40s for
most of Central Illinois for Friday, combined with the wind to make
a chilly day. Friday night, temps will drop below the freezing mark
under the high pressure ridge with light winds in the overnight
setting up a good radiational cooling night. Winds finally picking
up a southerly component again for the weekend to start another slow
warming trend, to near 60F by the later on Sunday. Towards the end
of the weekend and into the first few days of the next week,
southwesterly flow over the region starts to set up and what looks
like a frontal system stalling out over the region providing a focus
for showers for a couple of days. Expect to see some fine tuning
and shifts in the forecast overall in that time frame...but for now
Monday and Tuesday remain wet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
VFR conditions across the central Illinois terminals will degrade
to MVFR later today as a cold front approaches the area. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead of the cold
front. Included a 2 hour TEMPO group to try and capture the best
chances for thunderstorms this evening. Southerly winds will
increase today as the cold front approaches, with gusts in excess
of 30 kts common by evening. Winds will swing around to the west
behind the front, with gusts over 30 kts lingering through the
night.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1216 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
TODAY WILL FEATURE DYNAMIC AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH SEVERAL
POTENTIAL HAZARDS. A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL EJECT EAST NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY...DEEPENING RAPIDLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OVER IOWA
BY SUNSET. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...EARLY THIS MORNING...WE ARE ALREADY
SEEING RAPID PROLIFERATION OF LOW/MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
IOWA. SOME AREAS ALONG THIS TROUGH FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN IOWA ARE REPORTING LIGHT FOG...BUT ITS DEVELOPMENT IS BEING
HAMPERED BY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE DEPICTING A BREAKOUT OF DENSE FOG WITHIN THE TROUGH
AXIS...MAINLY AFFECTING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...LATER THIS MORNING
TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT SEEMS MITIGATED BY THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...AND NO ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED.
WILL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN CASE ONE
BECOMES WARRANTED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LATER THIS MORNING...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER FORCING ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF THE
LOW. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WHILE THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE HANGING ONTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF...THE HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC AND DEPICTING
MORE LIKE DRIZZLE OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN
SOMEWHAT IN THE MORNING BUT KEPT THEM LARGELY IN THE CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE...WITH OVERCAST SKIES PREVAILING PAST MIDDAY. IN ANY
EVENT NO REAL IMPACT IS FORESEEN FROM ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS EVEN THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST TOWARD NOON.
IN TERMS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A
DRYLINE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH ROCKETING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW/COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS SOMETIME IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES SO...WE SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING ALLOWING FOR
SOME MODEST DESTABILIZATION. WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG
FORCING AND WIND SHEAR/FLOW FIELDS THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHAT TIME CLEARING WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND WHERE
ANY SUCH STORMS WILL INITIATE. HRRR/RAP/NMM/ARW RUNS CONSISTENTLY
BRING A SHARP CLEARING EDGE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 20
OR 21Z WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THAT EDGE. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH CONCEPTUAL MODELS AND SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY WAY THAT
SUCH DISCRETE CELLS COULD TAP INTO THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AS BEHIND THE DRYLINE SURFACE WINDS WILL GO SOUTH SOUTHWEST
AND SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. AT THE SAME TIME...IF THE
STORMS REALLY ARE TIED RIGHT ONTO THE BACK EDGE OF THE LARGE LOW
CLOUD SHIELD...THEN THERE MAY NOT BE TIME TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF
THEM AND THEY COULD BE ELEVATED. HRRR SURFACE CAPE FIELDS SEEM TO
INDICATE THIS WILL BE THE CASE. ALL IN ALL...INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT
FOR SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN
IOWA...HOWEVER IT WILL BE A VERY NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN
TIME AND SPACE AND THINGS WILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT. WE
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY FOR
POSSIBLE WATCH/WARNING ISSUANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FINALLY...AS AFTERNOON STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS INTO IOWA TOWARD SUNSET...VERY STRONG WINDS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THIS IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE LONG
TERM SECTION BELOW...AND WIND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE RACING QUICKLY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT
REMAINS HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY INCREASES AS STRONG PRESSURE
RISES LIFT INTO CENTRAL IOWA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 70-80
UBARS/KM STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH PRESSURE RISES OF 12-15 MB/6
HRS. A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE NEARLY COINCIDENT
TO THE REGION WITH MAX EXPECTED WINDS. WHILE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL HELP MIX THE LOW LEVELS TO NEAR 900 MB WITH 50+ KTS OF WIND
IN THE MIXED LAYER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VERTICAL ASCENT BETWEEN
925-700 MB MAY LIMIT PEAK WINDS A BIT. THAT SAID...PLENTY OF
INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING DOWN TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM THE
DSM METRO AND WEST AND SUSPECT THE POSSIBILITY IT WILL NEED TO BE
EXPANDED FURTHER. SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE
SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 65 MPH BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. STILL POTENTIAL FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE
TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN IOWA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS AND ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHEAST. THE SUBSIDENCE REGION OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
ARRIVE OVER CENTRAL IOWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH WIND CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET ON
THURSDAY THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY THURSDAY.
VERY DRY DEWPOINTS ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SFC
RIDGE PASSING ACROSS IOWA FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR DES MOINES TO REACH FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS FALL PENDING THE TIMING OF RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE THAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERN TROUGH BRINGS
SOUTHWEST FLOW BACK TO THE MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...11/18Z
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE CONVECTION AND WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONGER STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND MORE OVER
NORTHEAST KS ATTM. WILL BE SEEING THE STORMS FLARE RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...REACHING KDSM BETWEEN
20-21Z AT LATEST AND NEARING KOTM BY 23-00Z. WINDS STILL EXPECTED
TO REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS NEARING 45 TO NEAR 50 KTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS
SETTLE SLIGHTLY AFT 12Z THURSDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN STRONG WITH
GUSTS NEAR 45KTS. OTHERWISE...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AFT 03Z
AS COLD AIR ARRIVES...THEN RISE TO VFR BETWEEN 13-15Z THURSDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY TEMPO THUNDER WIND GUSTS AS
STORMS NEAR BOTH KDSM AND KOTM TODAY./REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-
STORY-WARREN-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
MADISON-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-STORY-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
ADAMS-APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-
GRUNDY-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
325 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHILE AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS ALSO MAKING FOR A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY. HERE IN THE EAST...THOUGH...WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE
SUBDUED...BUT STILL TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S NORTH AND TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH. A BAND OF
HIGH CLOUDS DID DEVELOP AND HELPED SLOW THE TEMP RISE IN THE
NORTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHARP CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEY ALL DEPICT THIS LOW PUSHING
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
BAND OF WEAKENING ENERGY DOWN INTO KENTUCKY. BY THURSDAY
EVENING...THE MAIN LOW WILL BE PASSING INTO ONTARIO WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A SERIES OF MINOR ENERGY PACKETS THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILD START TO THE EVENING...BUT
ALSO A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WILL MIX THOSE COLDER TEMPERATURES OUT
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST PLACES. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO
THE LIKELY SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT THESE TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA
WITH THE FALLING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET AND AN OUTRUNNING OF
MID LEVEL SUPPORT. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...BUT EXPECT THE WORST OF
IT TO BE GENERALLY JUST SOME GUSTY SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY ALONG AND FOLLOWING THIS FRONT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.
WILL HIT THE WINDS HARD IN THE HWO AND ALSO ISSUE AN SPS
HIGHLIGHTING THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
FOR THURSDAY. ONE LAST WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED...POST FRONTAL...
BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA MOVES IN LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
VALLEY DROP OFF AND TO A LESSER AND OPPOSITE EXTENT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO ALL
GUIDANCE IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TONIGHT AND GENERALLY JUST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE EXITING TO THE EAST FOR THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...REINFORCING THIS TROUGH.
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH VERY DRY LOW/MID
LEVELS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS DYING OFF...AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING. WITH
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVERHEAD...EXPECT COLD MORNINGS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S. SOME
READINGS INTO THE LOWER 20S WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND...BUT STILL EXPECTING
SOME DECENT RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
A SHARP TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE REMAINS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THIS FEATURE...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE FEATURE IS STILL WELL OFF
SHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS. FOR THIS REASON...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH ON
WHEN RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION. IT APPEARS THE
BEST STAB AT RAIN CHANCES MOVING BACK IN WOULD BE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL PLAY A PART IN HOW MUCH
DOWNSLOPING WE SEE...WHICH MAY DELAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL ALL IMPACT
THE AVIATION COMMUNITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE. A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND LOWER WITH TIME INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BE FELT UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
THE MAIN TAF SITES. BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z IT IS LIKELY THAT A BAND OF
GUSTY SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT SHOULD THE BAND BE STRONG ENOUGH MOVING OUT OF
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS.
FROM THE SHOWERS VIS AND CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART JUST A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH INTO THE EVENING AT
10 KTS OR LESS. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS BY
12Z THURSDAY. IN THE FRONT/S WAKE...THEY WILL FURTHER INCREASE OUT
OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST REACHING 15 TO 25 KTS...INCLUDING
GUSTS...INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1018 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Keeping an eye on two main concerns for this afternoon and evening.
The primary concern is severe weather potential. The latest 12z nam
is similar to earlier mesoscale models (namely the 00z nmm and arw)
with the timing of precipitation development. These models indicate
a fairly large area of showers and elevated storms will develop in
the 21z to 00z time frame across se Missouri and southern IL. This
precip develops in a zone of strong low-level warm/moist advection
well ahead of the cold front. This convection will be based around
850 mb and should pose relatively little if any severe potential.
Of more concern is the potential for a squall line/qlcs along the
cold front later this evening. Along the front is where the nam/nmm
indicate a narrow axis of surface-based instability. If surface-
based convection can develop along the front, there is a strong
possibility of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. However, a mid-
level dry slot is forecast to impinge on the front, which may be why
the 12z nam fails to generate convection along the front itself. The
12z NAM model sounding brings the K-index below zero as the front
passes through the KPOF area this evening.
12z NAM forecast soundings indicate that surface-based instability
along the front will weaken and become more elevated during the
night. Therefore, the highest severe potential still appears to be
over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Secondary concern is gradient winds. The models are forecasting near-
surface lapse rates to be a little steeper than they indicated
yesterday. Looking at NAM and RAP data in bufkit, could not rule out
some gusts to advisory criteria early this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Our storm of the week is currently churning over western Colorado
per the latest water vapor imagery. The sfc low is situated in east
central Colorado. 00Z RAOB at KABQ shows core of the upper level jet
passing through with 162 kts noted at around 250mb. Low level winds
already cranking up over TX/OK bringing lower 60s dewpoints into the
southern Plains. The upper level low will move into the central
Plains this afternoon and then northeast into the Great Lakes late
tonight. At the surface, a steadily deepening low pressure system
will translate northeast from Kansas early today to Lake Michigan by
12Z Thursday. A trailing cold front will quickly move east
throughout the day and reach our western border by around 00Z
Thursday.
While we could see some activity move into the Ozarks of Missouri by
late morning, per several short term models, the bulk of the
precipitation will move into our western counties by late afternoon
and then translate east of the Mississippi River throughout the
evening hours. It seems as though the models have slowed down the
progression of the cold front just a tad. Plus, there may be two
waves of convection that come through...first being ahead of the
front and then another band right with the front. Some lingering
precipitation could be impacting our eastern sections after 06Z
Thursday but most areas should see the rain ending.
Gradient winds: We will see winds begin to pick up especially this
afternoon as the system gets closer. Sustained winds could be 20 to
25 mph at times with gusts up to 40 mph depending on how well we
mix. These gusts will be concentrated in southeast MO and southwest
IL this afternoon and then across the entire area during the
evening/overnight. In addition...the gusts will likely be higher as
we head into the early evening due to the main system in our
vicinity and low level winds increasing. Not inclined to issue
any headlines for wind at this moment in time but this will need
to be watched by the day shift. Will continue to highlight in HWO.
Possible severe weather: Latest SPC outlook now places the enhanced
risk north of our CWA. While the wind shear over the area is
impressive, instability parameters continue to point to the fact
that updrafts will have a difficult time sustaining themselves. Even
though we should see dewpoints surge into the lower 60s in most
places today, mid level lapse rates are poor and sfc temps will only
reach around 70. Even though there is a bit of MUCAPE forecast by
the models, it is definitely on the lower end of what we need to
sustain organized convection. Models do indicate some meager SBCAPE
(Less than 500 j/kg) early in the evening over SEMO and southern IL
right along and ahead of the front, which decreases as the evening
progresses. So SPC having southwest IN and the Pennyrile region of
west KY in a marginal risk does make sense. Might have to reduce
thunder chances in our east as well. However, with all that being
said, low level lapse rates are not too bad and with the intense
atmospheric winds we are dealing with, we could be looking at
damaging wind gusts being a problem with any convection that
forms.
As far as tornadoes, the threat is limited but not zero. However,
local studies suggest when the wind shear is as high as it is with
this system, only isolated tornadoes (maybe one or two) usually
resulted. Continue to think that if any tornadoes were to form,
they would be short lived, unless something changes with the level
of instability today/tonight.
After the convection leaves the area...we will be left with
continued windy conditions late tonight as the sfc low moves into
the Great Lakes. We could have some wraparound cloudiness as well
overnight but that should move off to the northeast throughout the
day on Thursday as the low moves even further east. The gradient
will remain fairly strong even into early Friday especially in
the northeast. High pressure finally builds into the area Friday
night and winds calm down. Highs on Thursday will be back down to
around 60 deg, but cooler readings are expected for Friday as
another upper level trough swings through.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
There is fairly high confidence in the overall trends through the
extended portion of the forecast, but there continues to be some
timing issues for precipitation chances next week.
Surface high pressure will settle right over the four state region
Friday night, and then slowly shift south/southeast over the
weekend. This will result in generally week south winds
developing Saturday, but the Gulf will effectively be shut down.
As we head into next week, the surface high will push farther
east, eventually allowing the Gulf to be tapped. Aloft, rising
500mb heights will be the rule through the weekend, but the upper-
ridge will shift east of the area as we head into next week.
The models are in much better agreement in handling a significant
batch of energy coming off of the Pacific Sunday night and
Monday. The models develop a closed low over the southwest states,
and southwesterly flow over our region. One question mark for next
week is how much precipitation will accompany a lead disturbance
Sunday night and Monday. The GFS is wetter and faster to bring
showers through our region in that timeframe, while the GEM and
ECMWF are slower, possibly keeping eastern sections dry through
Monday. Given that the Gulf is not likely to be tapped by this
lead disturbance figure the slower, drier solution is best here.
The GFS and ECMWF eventually open the Gulf for significant
northward transport of low-level moisture Monday night into
Wednesday, as the southwester upper low pushes eastward into the
Plains and eventually northeast toward the Great Lakes. With
strong southerly flow through the troposphere ahead of this
system, heavy rainfall will be a concern. Unfortunately, the ECMWF
is about 24 hours faster to bring the system through our region.
Would not be surprised if the slower solution is best here, given
that the system is closed off. For now we Will have good chance
to likely PoPs over much of the region from Monday night through
Wednesday. May need them into Wednesday night if the GFS is
correct.
We will start off rather cool Saturday and then have a minor
warming trend through Monday. As moisture and precipitation become
more prominent next week, we will see rather small diurnal ranges
with lows climbing above normal levels, and high being stuck at or
below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 521 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015
As low pressure approaches today, winds will pick up from the
south, especially by afternoon. By late afternoon and evening,
sustained winds around 15-20 kts are forecast to gust in excess of
25 knots. A few showers may reach KCGI and perhaps KPAH by dusk,
but the greatest potential for showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms should hold off until this evening. A brief period
of MVFR conditions is possible with the precipitation activity.
The main concern with thunderstorm activity will be strong wind
gusts. Winds shift around to the southwest after frontal passage
this evening and remain gusty.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
Update...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1230 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2015
Thunderstorm event still set for later this afternoon and this
evening, but the timing looks to be primarily 4pm to 9pm.
Two areas will affect our region: one from the west, currently
a N-S oriented line over eastern KS and southeastern Nebraska,
will be associated with the primary severe threat for damaging
straight-line winds and tornadoes as it slides east across
northern MO and central IL.
The second area is taking shape over northeast OK and far
southwest MO and will enter through southeast MO and move
northeast from there, expected to clip STL metro and into
southwest IL. While there will be a reduced severe threat with
this, it will still exist.
All of this should come to an end by 9-10pm.
Strong winds still on track, primarily after cold FROPA tonight,
but will affect central and northeast MO as early as this
afternoon with some deeper mixing anticipated ahead of the front.
No changes currently to the Wind Advisory.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2015
Long-advertised storm system is beginning to work its way into
the Plains early today. All of the 00z model runs and subsequent
high-res guidance has slowed the movement of the system just a bit,
with the intense upper level low now progged to reach western Iowa
by this evening. This also means a slower eastward progression of
the strong cold front across the area, with the front now progged to
be approaching our far western counties by late in the afternoon.
Unfortunately, lots of questions remain with regards to specific
evolution of precip, and the possibly of severe convection. All of
the solutions at least hint at some elevated shower activity
developing well ahead of the frontal boundary. While some of this
may be suggesting saturation that leads to clouds rather than actual
precip, there does seem to be some consensus of a higher probability
of showers developing and working across the eastern Ozarks this
afternoon, ahead of the main cold front.
Although models have slowed the system a bit, they remain in good
agreement with earlier solutions that kinematics with this system
will be quite intense and very favorable for the support of severe
convection, with model consensus indicating at least 80kts of 0-6km
shear, along with a favorably backed low level flow in advance of
the surface low. The primary question has been...and still
is...whether there will be enough instability to sustain convection,
and elevated showers in the warm sector ahead of the cold front
would certainly suppress heating and potential instability. Given
such intense wind fields it will not take much to storms to approach
severe levels, but as noted by SPC in the day 1 outlook it could be
that if we don`t have enough instability the strong shear could rip
the updrafts apart. Certainly, any storm that is able to maintain
updraft intensity will have the potential to become severe. It`s
also interesting that the covection allowing models seem to support
the idea of cells remaining discrete through late afternoon, which
would certainly enhance severe potential if that were to occur.
Bottom line...we probably won`t have a good handle on exact
potential until AMS shows it`s hand WRT instability during the
afternoon. One thing is certain however...if the storms do go there
forward speed is going to be very high...likely over 50kts.
Wind advisory currently runs from 18z this afternoon until 12z
Thursday morning, and not planning any changes at this time. While
it will be windy this afternoon, it may be that low clouds and
limited heating will keep gusts from quite reaching criteria.
However, by tonight this system should become quite the wind machine
in our CWA...see additional details in the long term discussion that
follows.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2015
(Tonight)
The tonight period will begin with the cold front beginning oriented
roughly from NNE to SSW just west of the Mississippi River. As
alluded to above...this is a few hours slower than it looked 24
hours ago. Severe weather will remain the primary concern along the
boundary as a very narrow instability axis combined with extrememly
strong wind shear with height will likely yield some severe weather
early in the period with damaging winds and tornadoes possible.
By 0600 UTC...front should be east of CWA with threat of severe
weather also shifting eastward. Attention will then turn to very
strong gradient winds. Low-level cyclone will continue to deepen as
it heads northeast from Iowa into eastern Wisconsin by late tonight.
Very strong gradient winds are still anticipated across much of the
CWA...particularly the northern third. Strongest wind gusts look to
be between 0300 and 0900 UTC tonight across portions of northeast
Missouri and west-central Illinois with wind gusts of 40-45+ knots.
If the GFS soundings turn out to be correct...would not be surprised
if high wind warning criteria is neared.
Low temperatures tonight will be a bit cooler behind the front but
still near normal for early/mid November. Forecast lows for tonight
range from the low to mid 40s across the bi-state area.
(Thursday - Sunday)
Strong westerly winds will continue into at least the first part of
Thursday. Wind gusts should be below advisory criteria...but
subsequent shifts will have to keep an eye on this to see if an
extension is warrented for portions of northeast Missouri and west-
central Illinois.
Used a blend of the warmer MAV and the cooler MET guidance for highs
on Thursday due to a westerly sfc wind and a clear sky but also
strong low-level CAA. Near normal high temperatures are anticipated.
A dry and seasonable weather pattern will continue through this
weekend with northwest flow aloft. Cooler conditions are expected on
Friday and Friday night behind a secondary cold front and
reinforcing shot of colder air. Highs on Friday will be about 5
degrees below normal but return flow already begins for Saturday so
a quick bounce back in temperatures are likely.
(Sunday Night - Tuesday)
Increasing clouds and another chance of rain begins on Sunday night
as another strong trough digs into the four corners region. Models
are not sure how to handle the evolution of this trough this far out
which is no surprise. Current NWP guidance suggests a piece will
eject out and give our region a chance of rain early next week with
the main system holding back and not affecting the mid-Mississippi
Valley until after this forecast package.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2015
VFR conditions will prevail thru much of the valid period.
Exception may be this afternoon with area of high-end MVFR CIGs
moving into various parts of the area, but looks doubtful enough
now that this will remain MVFR to raise it to 3500ft for most
sites. The other exception will be with likely probs of at least
strong TSRA moving thru late this afternoon and early evening.
Otherwise, the main story will be strong winds, both before and
after the front, but especially behind the front tonight.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions will prevail thru much of the
valid period. Exception may be this afternoon with area of high-
end MVFR CIGs moving into the area, but looks doubtful enough now
that this will remain MVFR to raise it to 3500ft. The other
exception will be with likely probs of at least strong TSRA
moving thru between 00 and 02z. Otherwise, the main story will be
strong winds, both before and after the front, but especially
behind the front tonight.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-
Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-
Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1213 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015
...Active Weather this Afternoon...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Dryline at 11:30am was located along a line from Lawrence, KS to
Tulsa, OK. Cumulus development was occurring along the line and
some scattered shower/storm development was beginning to occur
across Northeast Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas. This mornings 12z
and the special 18Z sounding showed a significant amount of dry
air located above 800mb, which is a limiting factor for our severe
threat today. Storms that are trying to form in NE Oklahoma are
having a hard time maintaining organization. Wind shear is not an
issue with 0-6km bulk shear of 80kts and a 50kt low level jet
pushing into the area. Mid level lapse rates were slightly better
further to the north into Central Missouri.
Hi res models are starting to hone in on two areas of
storms across our area. One area being scattered storms moving
out of nw Arkansas across far southern missouri into southcentral
missouri this afternoon. The second area being across our Central
Missouri, along and north of US highway 54 where isolated storms
may have slightly better organization. The entire area however
still has the opportunity for scattered storm development. If
storms can maintain there organization as they develop across the
area, damaging wind gusts to 60mph still looks to be the main
risk. A tornado risk is limited at this point due to lack of
overall storm organization. Overall confidence in severe weather
occurring today is low.
However, confidence is high that we will see non thunderstorm
wind gusts behind the dryline this afternoon gust to 40-50mph
across the western half of the area. Strong pressure rises are
occurring across SW kansas/Northern OK and starting to see some
50mph wind gusts in that area. The RAP soundings for Joplin shows
momentum transfer/mixing of 50kts+ to the surface, therefore we
will be watching closely for the potential for a high wind warning
for areas along the I-49 corridor. Timeframe for the highest wind
gusts looks to be from mid to late afternoon. RH values will drop
rapidly behind the dryline and the going Red Flag Warning looks
good.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0313 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Severe storms, very strong winds, and fire weather all continue
to be a concern for today.
Severe weather: The general scenario is the same. Strengthening
low pressure over nw KS will move northeast to the IA/NEB border
by 21z/3pm. First a trailing dryline will move into our se KS
counties early this afternoon then quick shift east to the eastern
edge of out eastern counties in south central by early evening.
This speed is a little slower than previous simulations. A cold
front will eventually follow on the heels of the dryline tonight.
The warm sector ahead of the dry line will have almost off the
chart vertical shear to work with as a upper level jet max shifts
east into the area this afternoon. An elevated mixed layer (eml)
will strongly cap the region this morning while shallow moisture
advects into the area. Already seeing evidence of the moisture
advection with lower clouds moving quickly into the area.
Synoptic scale lift will be strong in diffluent flow aloft and
this lift will spread into the region late this morning helping to
break the cap. But poor lapse rates in the mid levels and a
relatively shallow Gulf air mass will limit the overall
instability to 200-300 j/kg MLCAPE, most of which will be in the
low levels. Better instability with cooler mid levels will will
exist closer to the closed upper low to our north.
Given the high end vertical wind fields, we still have to be
cautious as convection develops this afternoon. With a
weakened/broken cap some warm sector convection will begin with
the best chances over the eastern cwfa either on the dry line or
ahead of it in the warm sector similar to high res model output.
If a stronger updraft can survive the shear, a severe storm threat
will exist with damaging winds the main concern. The SPC enhanced
risk was shifted to the north of the area where there is better
chance for stronger updrafts/instability, but will have to watch
how far south deeper convection can develop late this afternoon
over central MO along the dryline.
The wind advisory continues, but did add some counties where I
believe we will have stronger gusts in higher terrain late today.
Strongly considering a high wind warning for some se KS counties
and will continue to take a look. 50+ mph non-thunderstorm wind
gusts will be possible, especially over se KS into west central
MO. Gusty winds will diminish this evening but remain fairly
strong tonight as they shift from the west-wnw.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 0313 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
A cooler and dry air mass will spread into the area with a large
sfc high moving through the area Fri. A warming trend will develop
as the sfc high moves off to the east over the weekend. Moisture
will spread back to the north ahead of an approaching shortwave
next week with increasing chances for showers late Sunday, Mon,
Tue.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 1150 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
Pilots flying to area terminals can expect increasing wind
this afternoon as a strong storm system tracks into the
region. Southwesterly winds will increase with frequent gusts
over 30 kts especially at the Joplin and Springfield terminals.
Gusts over 40kts will occur at times at the Joplin terminal.
Scattered storms will develop along an advancing dry line which
may impact terminal vicinities this afternoon. Widespread MVFR
ceilings will persist ahead of the dry line before giving way to
a clearing sky from westto east.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0239 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
With high end advisory winds and rapid drying behind the dryline
this afternoon over the western cwfa, will go with a Red Flag
Warning for our two western most tiers of counties. An elevated
fire danger will exist over a larger area into the evening with
the drier air mass moving in. We are not expecting much (or in
some cases any) rain so fuels will remain dry.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for MOZ055>058-066>070-
077>081-088>091-093>095-101>103.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for MOZ066-077-088-
093-101.
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Burchfield
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch
FIRE WEATHER...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1140 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.AVIATION...
GUSTY...CROSSWIND COMPONENT CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINAL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST
AND WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...GAG & WWR...MAY SEE VFR CEILINGS DEVELOP FOR
A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SITES NEAR RECENTLY PLOWED FIELDS MAY
ALSO SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH BLOWING DUST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015/
UPDATE...
LOWERED DEWPOINT AND RH VALUES FOR TODAY. EXPANDED RED FLAG
WARNING ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODIFIED POPS
SOUTHEAST.
DISCUSSION...
VERY DRY AIR IS FILTERING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND EXTENDING NOW INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS... IT APPEARS THAT HRRR AND RAP DEWPOINTS
ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SO HAVE MODIFIED THE DEWPOINTS TOWARD A
HRRR/RAP BLEND WHICH LOWERS DEWPOINTS IN MANY AREAS. WITH THIS
CHANGE... THE MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL APPROACH OR FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT EAST TO NEAR A HOLDENVILLE-ADA-ARDMORE-MARIETTA LINE SO
HAVE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING INTO THOSE AREAS. UPDATED
GRIDS... FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST AND RED FLAG WARNING ARE
OUT.
HAVE ALSO REMOVED OR MODIFIED POPS IN SOME AREAS BASED ON THE
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE PACIFIC FRONT AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
26.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION
AVIATION...
SOME BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF
OUR TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS WITH 25-30 KT WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 KNOTS, AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWEST BY 00Z. THE STRONG WINDS
COULD RESULT IN BLOWING DUST, REDUCING SFC VISIBILITIES AT OUR
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LOOSEN SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STAYING NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS AND LESS GUSTY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SFC/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
COLORADO ROCKIES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, PUSHING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AS THE WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT LATER ON
THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, AS WELL AS ALL OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH 30 TO 40 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS. DAYTIME HEATING/VERTICAL MIXING INTO THE WINDS
ALOFT MAY RESULT IN UP TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS. WITH RH VALUES
DECREASING 15 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WIND ADVISORY AREA, DANGEROUS WILD FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE
ANOTHER HAZARD ALONG WITH THE WIND, AS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
IN EFFECT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS WILL MAY ALSO
REDUCE VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST. WITH LIMITED TO NO
INSTABILITY, MOST OF OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM,
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, SEVERE TSRA WILL STAY WELL EAST
OF OUR AREA.
BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE U.S.
GREAT LAKES REGION, AS HIGH SFC PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND MUCH LIGHTER NORTH WINDS. COOLER AIR WILL BE
KEEPING OUR TEMPS MORE SEASONABLY NORMAL, WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
NIGHT TEMPS. NORTHERN OKLAHOMA COULD DROP TO FREEZING ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S LOWS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF OUR REGION.
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MAY BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR TSRA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 41 63 36 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 67 38 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 41 66 37 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 60 34 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 38 63 31 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 74 45 65 41 / 50 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-
011>013-015>042-044>046-050.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>031-033>040-
044.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1032 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE...
LOWERED DEWPOINT AND RH VALUES FOR TODAY. EXPANDED RED FLAG
WARNING ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODIFIED POPS
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY DRY AIR IS FILTERING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND EXTENDING NOW INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS... IT APPEARS THAT HRRR AND RAP DEWPOINTS
ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SO HAVE MODIFIED THE DEWPOINTS TOWARD A
HRRR/RAP BLEND WHICH LOWERS DEWPOINTS IN MANY AREAS. WITH THIS
CHANGE... THE MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL APPROACH OR FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT EAST TO NEAR A HOLDENVILLE-ADA-ARDMORE-MARIETTA LINE SO
HAVE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING INTO THOSE AREAS. UPDATED
GRIDS... FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST AND RED FLAG WARNING ARE
OUT.
HAVE ALSO REMOVED OR MODIFIED POPS IN SOME AREAS BASED ON THE
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE PACIFIC FRONT AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
.26.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION
AVIATION...
SOME BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF
OUR TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS WITH 25-30 KT WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 KNOTS, AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWEST BY 00Z. THE STRONG WINDS
COULD RESULT IN BLOWING DUST, REDUCING SFC VISIBILITIES AT OUR
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LOOSEN SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STAYING NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS AND LESS GUSTY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SFC/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
COLORADO ROCKIES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, PUSHING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AS THE WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT LATER ON
THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, AS WELL AS ALL OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH 30 TO 40 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS. DAYTIME HEATING/VERTICAL MIXING INTO THE WINDS
ALOFT MAY RESULT IN UP TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS. WITH RH VALUES
DECREASING 15 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WIND ADVISORY AREA, DANGEROUS WILD FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE
ANOTHER HAZARD ALONG WITH THE WIND, AS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
IN EFFECT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS WILL MAY ALSO
REDUCE VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST. WITH LIMITED TO NO
INSTABILITY, MOST OF OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM,
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, SEVERE TSRA WILL STAY WELL EAST
OF OUR AREA.
BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE U.S.
GREAT LAKES REGION, AS HIGH SFC PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND MUCH LIGHTER NORTH WINDS. COOLER AIR WILL BE
KEEPING OUR TEMPS MORE SEASONABLY NORMAL, WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
NIGHT TEMPS. NORTHERN OKLAHOMA COULD DROP TO FREEZING ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S LOWS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF OUR REGION.
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MAY BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR TSRA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 41 63 36 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 67 38 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 41 66 37 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 60 34 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 38 63 31 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 74 45 65 41 / 50 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-
011>013-015>042-044>046-050.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>031-033>040-
044.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1132 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015
.UPDATE...
WE NUDGED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT IN SOUTHEAST WI FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BEFORE THE CLOUDS MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THEIR WAY UP...
INDICATING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE CAN EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
TO FILL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THIS.
LOWERED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST MESO MODELS AND SKY
CONDITIONS. ONE UNCERTAINTY IS THE SHOWERS THEY TRY TO PRODUCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST WI. THESE WOULD
BE DUE TO THE IMPRESSIVE UVV AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET.
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWING
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING... ALTHOUGH THE 16Z HRRR BRINGS IT
THROUGH THE AREA 1 TO 2 HOURS LATER THAN THE NAM... WRF AND RAP
MODELS.
SPC EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER JUST A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH WITH THEIR 1030 AM UPDATE. WE ARE LOOKING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THE FRONT SLIDES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT IN
SOUTHERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING. THE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN ANY STRONG CELLS. THE
TRIPLE POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THUS THE BETTER INSTABILITY/
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER THE ENHANCED RISK AREA.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
A VERY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. LOOK FOR RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL ALSO STEADILY INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST THEN WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. 50 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED JUST ABOVE
2000 FEET THIS EVENING. THIS IS NOT WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CRITERIA... BUT IT IS CLOSE.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO KMSN BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT HOLD OFF FOR
THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FROM ABOUT 5 PM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF THIS BAND... AS HRRR MODEL IS MOVING
ITTHROUGH SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS. EXPECT MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. VERY
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. WE
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING AS A DRY SLOT ROLLS THROUGH.
BUT...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW.
VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY INTACT. THE DYNAMICS/FORCING REMAIN
OBVIOUS. IT HAS SLOWED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A VERY
INTENSE CLOSED AND NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SLAM IN HERE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AN IMPRESSIVE LEFT
FRONT QUAD OF AN UPPER JET WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OF 50-60KTS PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE UVV VALUES. THE SFC LOW
WILL BE OCCLUDING BY THE TIME IT PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
THE SPC HAS PUT OUR FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES INTO A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS WOULD BE A SHORT WINDOW FROM ABOUT 5 PM
THROUGH 8-9 PM THIS EVENING. CLEARLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS IOWA INTO ILLINOIS. THE WIND FIELD THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH IS VERY STRONG...SO IT
WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO BRING A FEW
SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER ABOUT
3 PM THIS AFTERNOON...THE SOUTHEAST COULD STAY DRY UNTIL EVENING.
THEN LOOK FOR A RAPIDLY MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ROLL
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVIER PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY LAST
ABOUT 3-4 HOURS. WE SHOULD GET A DECENT DRY SLOT DURING THE EVENING
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT LIGHTER SHOWERS
SHOULD FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRETTY GUSTY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW. THESE
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH. THOSE WINDS THEN PICK UP QUICKLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
GIVEN THE DELAY IN THE PRECIP...TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MAYBE EVEN A 60 OR
TWO IN THE FAR SOUTH. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FLOWING BACK IN TONIGHT
AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE RIGHT OVER WISCONSIN DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...MOVING TO JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON BY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY. EXPECTING MORNING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DRAWS NEAR.
KEPT WINDY FORECAST GOING FOR THURSDAY...LEAVING THE WIND ADVISORY
AS IS. FORECAST WINDS GENERALLY FALL BETWEEN LOWER NAM AND HIGHER
GFS VALUES. IT WILL BE CLOUDY...SO CERTAINLY SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
MIXING POTENTIAL. GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS AND COLD ADVECTION
THOUGH...SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AND/OR GUSTS TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA MOST PLACES.
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH. SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION
TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE
AREA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...THOUGH A FEW PLACES
COULD GET A DUSTING IN GRASSY AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA.
925 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -1 TO 1 C RANGE FRIDAY...SO A CHILLY
DAY ANTICIPATED. LINGERING BREEZY WINDS AND CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MORNING WILL CERTAINLY ADD TO THE COOL FALL
CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS BY SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS BRINGS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY...MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT SOME LOW POPS
PER THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS THEN BRINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN
PLACE...WITH MILDER TEMPS CONTINUING. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST
SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY...DESPITE THE DIFFERENT SETUPS. NOT A TON
OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY WEEK FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VERY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL ALSO
STEADILY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...SHIFTING TO
SOUTHWEST THEN WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO
KMSN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT HOLD OFF FOR THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
ROLL ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABOUT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 9 PM
THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING AS A
DRY SLOT ROLLS THROUGH. BUT...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS SHOULD
RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW.
MARINE...A DANGEROUS AND POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL APPROACH TODAY...MOVING OVER THE GREEN BAY AREA BY
AROUND SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. LOOK FOR STEADILY INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT NOON TODAY.
A GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON AT 6 PM
THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST GALES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THEN WESTERLY GALES WILL RETURN QUICKLY TO THE ENTIRE
NEARSHORE AREA...INCLUDING NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON...BY MID MORNING
ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ056-062>072.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
052-057>060.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV