Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/10/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EUREKA CA

407 PM PST MON NOV 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
3500 TO 4000 FEET TONIGHT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT INTERIOR VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FROST ELSEWHERE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST POPS OVER
THE YOLLA BOLLYS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOWS OF 1 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500 FT EXCEPT 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE YOLLA BOLLYS.
HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU 7 PM. HOWEVER...MINIMAL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE RIDGES. AS SKY COVER DECREASES
OVERNIGHT...VALLEY RADIATIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO
FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WITH PATCHY
FROST CLOSER TO THE COAST. FROST IS NOT EXPECTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE REDWOOD COAST OR IN COASTAL MENDOCINO...BUT INLAND
VALLEYS AND NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FROST IN THE REDWOOD COAST ZONE. HAVE
HOISTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. HAVE ALSO INDICATED FROST
IN GRIDS AT LOCATIONS NOT EXPECTED TO FREEZE. BLACK ICE WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN PASSES DUE TO THE RECENT
RAINS AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES TUE NIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSE TO TONIGHT`S.

THE NEXT SHOTS AT PRECIP WILL BE AROUND WED AND AGAIN OVER THE
COMING WEEKEND. THE MID-WEEK PRECIP WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY N OF
CAPE MENDOCINO. THE WEEKEND PRECIP SHOULD BE AREA-WIDE.
HOWEVER...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE WEEKEND...AND HAVE
NOT RAISED POPS ABOVE THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS OF YET. /SEC

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KCEC,
KACV AND KUKI OVERNIGHT DUE TO STRATUS REDUCING CEILINGS AND
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI.

.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS
HAVE PEAKED AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY PRIMARILY DUE TO INCREASING SEAS.

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM TUE
FOR CAZ001.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR
CAZ003-004-076.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM TUE FOR
CAZ003-076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUE FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
406 PM PST MON NOV 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORCAL IS BRINGING RAIN, MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS BY MID-WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
Had a busy morning updating the forecast. The HRRR and other short
term guidance was suggesting that precipitation amounts could be
notably higher than previously forecast. Upgraded the Winter Storm
Watch to a Warning earlier today...we also extended the Flash
Flood Watch for burn scars so that it now includes the Rim & King
fires along with Valley, Rocky, Jerusalem, Wragg, and Butte.

Since this morning`s updates, we have been getting recent reports
of 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulating in locations around 3000 ft
elevation. Thus, we have updated the Winter Storm Warning so that
it is in effect through 7 am Tuesday for elevations above 3000 ft.
Periods of heavy snow possible along with considerable travel
delays crossing the passes. By the time the storm wraps up on
Tuesday, total accumulations of 4-9 inches are expected with
12-16 inches along the crest.

Radar is showing convective precipitation across interior NorCal.
Much of it is currently along the Interstate 5 corridor and the
overall movement of this system is showing that those storms could
rotate into the Sierra this evening.

Flash flood watch continues for possible impacts on the burn
scars from heavy rain. So far, we have not heard any reports of
problems at the burn scars, but we continue to monitor radar in
case heavier showers move into those areas.

Showers expected to diminish by early Tuesday setting the stage
for some cold overnight temperatures across the region. The
northern half of the Sacramento Valley may clear out enough
tonight for some frost, and more widespread frost will be possible
throughout the valley on Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Drier
weather by Tuesday afternoon onward with slight warming through
Thursday. JBB

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)

Dry weather expected over Interior NorCal Friday and Saturday as a
broad upper trough slowly sags southward over the Pacific NW,
gradually weakening the upper ridge over CA. Temperatures expected
to be near normal. Model solutions diverge late in the forecast
period with the EC bringing a sharp (more amplified) trough across
the area Sunday, while the GFS maintains a flat, straight line
west-southwest upper flow. We favored the EC and kept a chance of
showers in the forecast. By Monday night, the EC brings in a
stronger trough into NW CA. The GFS also has a trough, but it is
roughly 12 hrs slower. The good news is that these storms are
coming from the colder source region of the Northern Pacific, thus
keeping snow levels at decent elevations with snow at pass levels
or below. JClapp

.AVIATION...

DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORCAL WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 10 PM. VIS BRIEFLY DOWN TO 2SM AND CEILINGS
TO 1000 FEET IN STRONGEST SHOWERS AND STORMS. GENERAL CEILINGS
AROUND 3000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWERING TO 2500 FEET AT
TIMES. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM PST Tuesday for West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM PST this evening for Clear
Lake/Southern Lake County-Motherlode-Southern Sacramento Valley-
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada.

Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Tuesday for Central
Sacramento Valley-Clear Lake/Southern Lake County-Northern
Sacramento Valley.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight PST tonight for Mountains
Southwestern Shasta County to Northern Lake County.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

945 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS IS A COLD
WEATHER SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4000 FEET BY MONDAY
MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...BUT COOL WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA BY NEXT SUNDAY.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:19 AM PST SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
TO MORNING PACKAGE. RADAR IS PICKING UP RETURNS OVER THE NORTH BAY
AND WEST OF THE GOLDEN GATE WITH LIGHT RAIN REPORTED AT SANTA
ROSA. THE MESOWEST NETWORK SHOWS MOST OF THE NORTH BAY HAVING
RECEIVED A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH SO FAR. HIGHEST REPORT SO
FAR IS 0.20 OUT AT POINT REYES.

SO FRONT IS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK AS ADVERTISED WITH LIGHT RAIN
NOW REACHING THE BAY AREA. INITIAL BOUNDARY WAS NEVER EXPECTED TO
BE OVERLY WET JUST SOME NUISANCE LIGHT RAIN FOR YOUR SUNDAY
ACTIVITIES. THE 12Z OAKLAND SOUNDING SHOWS ONLY 0.56 TPW MEASURED.
HOWEVER SATELLITE DATA SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD TONGUE OF MOISTURE
STILL POINTED AT BODEGA BAY WITH 15:35Z BLENDED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING UPWARDS OF 1.2 INCHES TPW JUST OFF THE COAST. SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKS EVENT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THE COAST WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...BELIEVE IT WILL TAP INTO THIS PLUME
AND BRING SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO THE BAY AREA ON MONDAY
WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND BEST DYNAMICS PASS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
OCCUR WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. SO UPSHOT
OF ALL THIS IS TO EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY FOR
THE GREATER BAY AREA THAT WONT REACH THE CENTRAL COAST REGIONS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN
OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWER THREAT CONTINUING. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS MONDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. BOTH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED ON MONDAY
BY THE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED WET ROADS.

SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AND MILD AFTERNOONS TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME COLD NIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE
AWAY FROM THE BAY. WILL BE WATCHING 12Z RUNS FOR NEXT SYSTEM LATER
NEXT WEEKEND.

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:55 AM PST SUNDAY...THE COLD-FRONTAL
RAIN BAND IS THEN PROJECTED TO REACH SAN FRANCISCO BY MID
MORNING...SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND REACH THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK ALL
THE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE OR RADAR AT THE PRESENT TIME...BUT
THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT MOISTURE PLUME FLOWING IN FROM THE WSW
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.2
INCHES. SO IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PLACES THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS TODAY ACROSS MARIN...SAN FRANCISCO..AND
CONTRA COSTA COUNTIES WHERE A THIRD TO A HALF INCH ARE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT
STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIP
ACTION THIS EVENING BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY PICKS UP LATE TONIGHT
WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AND A COLD UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE
COAST...AND THEN OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY WILL AFFECT BOTH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON COMMUTES AND MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT AT TIMES. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO DRAW ATTENTION TO THE
EXPECTED IMPACTS OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM.

THIS INCOMING SYSTEM...WHILE NOT AS WET AS THE ONE A WEEK
BEFORE...IS COLDER. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS
4000 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO NEAR 3000 FEET IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED...BUT A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON
HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 4000 FEET.

MODEL QPF IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE-
QUARTER AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ON MONDAY EVENING AND END MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY TUESDAY...BUT THE COOL AIRMASS
WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA FOR A FEW DAYS...PROBABLY RESULTING IN A
FEW NIGHTS OF PATCHY FROST IN THE INLAND VALLEYS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE LATER IN THE
WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT
WEEKEND...AND HAVE ADDED RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP RAIN BY A COUPLE
OF DAYS AND SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LOW.

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST SUNDAY...RADAR SHOWS RAIN ON THE
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT WILL GO THROUGH OUR AREA.
LATEST TAF PACKAGE IS ONLY A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE WITH START TIMES OF RAIN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED. RAIN CHANGES
TO SHOWERS LATER. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...RAIN FORECAST TO START BETWEEN 1830 AND 19Z
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. RAIN SWITCHED TO SHOWERS
22 TO 23Z. WINDS OF 130 TO 160 SWITCH TO 230 TO 260 AFTER 22Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...RAIN TO MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS AFTER
22Z WITH CIGS FORECAST TO ALTERNATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. RAIN TO
SHOWERS AFTER 0Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PST SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL CREATE UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY CAUSING HEAVIER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND THERE`S A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. LONG PERIOD
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

919 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2015

MODEL QPF IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE-
QUARTER AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:10 AM PST SUNDAY...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECTING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS AS A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM
THE NW WITH SHOWERS TODAY. THERE`S A GREATER CHANCE FOR MODERATE
TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES EVEN FURTHER. FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT WINDS. MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS...SOME COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOCAL IFR EARLY/MID
MORNING THEN CIGS LIKELY LIFTING TO MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

313 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS IS A COLD WEATHER
SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4000 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...BUT COOL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:55 AM PST SUNDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH MENDOCINO COUNTY AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY BY SUNRISE. THE COLD-FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS
THEN PROJECTED TO REACH SAN FRANCISCO BY MID MORNING...SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND REACH THE MONTEREY BAY
AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THE IMPRESSIVE
ON SATELLITE OR RADAR AT THE PRESENT TIME...BUT THERE IS A PRETTY
DECENT MOISTURE PLUME FLOWING IN FROM THE WSW ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.2 INCHES. SO IT
SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING ANYWHERE FROM A
TENTH TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PLACES THE GREATEST RAIN
TOTALS TODAY ACROSS MARIN...SAN FRANCISCO..AND CONTRA COSTA
COUNTIES WHERE A THIRD TO A HALF INCH ARE FORECAST. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
OVERALL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

MODEL QPF IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE-
QUARTER AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT WINDS. MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS...SOME COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

.MARINE...AS OF 2:20 AM PST SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL CREATE UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
CAUSING HEAVIER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL WILL ARRIVE TODAY RESULTING IN BUILDING SEAS AND LARGER
BREAKING WAVES AT THE COAST.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

255 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2015

MODEL QPF IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE-
QUARTER AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:52 PM PST SATURDAY...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST...OTHERWISE VFR LATE THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS ARRIVING SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. THE
COLDEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE`VE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT WINDS. VFR/MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS SUNDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...INCREASING LOW CLOUDS. LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS SUNDAY.

.MARINE...AS OF 09:46 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. A LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL
ARRIVES LATER TODAY RESULTING IN BUILDING SEAS AND LARGER BREAKING
WAVES AT THE COAST. A COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...HEAVIEST SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CW/CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

222 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE IS PLAYING IT
CLOSE TO THE VEST AS TO WHAT IT WILL FINALLY PERMIT TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION-WISE. LATEST HRRR MODEL NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC BUT DOES
SPIT OUT GREATEST POP CHANCES NORTH OF I-4 LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MAY
HAVE TO ADJUST POP GRIDS BEFORE SENDING OUT ZONE PACKAGE LATER
TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL AND
IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE BACK NORTH TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN
THE NORTHEAST GULF ADVANCES TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
KEEP ECFL IN THE WARM SECTOR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST DEEP MOISTURE ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR COVERAGE WARNING AREA THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
REMAIN RATHER POOR. SURFACE HEATING AND INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY BE OUR BEST BET FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
STILL WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAIN THREATS FROM HEAVIER CELLS
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING. CELL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS EVENING WITH POP CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

OUR ESE/SE SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE MILD AND MAINLY IN THE
L70S...EXCEPT SOME U60S POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR IN NORMALLY
COOLER LOCATIONS. WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME M70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS KEEN ON DEVELOPING SOME
PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE COAST
SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THIS.

MON...WHILE THE PREVIOUS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW STILL LINGERS NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY. OUR
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN S/SE WITH NEAR RECORD/RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FORECAST. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL EXIST FOR THIS DAY WITH A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF WE HAVE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO
REALIZE FORECAST POPS. GREATEST CHANCES AGAIN WILL EXIST NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE COVERAGE WARNING AREA.

MON NIGHT-TUE...FRONT IS FORECAST TO EASE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA AND
REACH SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TUE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE QUITE HIGH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. SOME CONVECTION FROM MON AFTERNOON BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS MAY LINGER INTO MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. THEN ON TUE THE HIGHEST POPS WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN THE
SOUTH HALF WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST DURING PEAK HEATING.
OKEECHOBEE BOUNDARY EFFECTS MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS
TO THE TREASURE COAST.

WED-SUN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA EARLY WED. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FRI BUT
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TOO WEAK AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE ANY
POPS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FOLLOWING THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN RECENT ONES. SO EVEN THOUGH
THE FRONTS WILL NOT BE BRINGING ANY REAL COLD AIR DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES...THE TREND LOOKS TO BE TOWARDS HIGHS AND LOWS
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY NEXT SATURDAY. DRYING LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE MENTION OF POPS AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION...INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BUT CONVECTION OFF TO A SLOW
START EVEN WITH AMPLE SURFACE HEATING. SOME WARMER/DRIER AIR ALOFT
SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONT (ACROSS N/C FL) MAY BE IN PART TO
BLAME...AS WELL AS WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STILL FEEL SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CHANCES EXIST THRU EARLY EVENING...GREATEST RISK
KMCO NORTHWARD. SHOWER CHANCES DECREASE THRU THE EVENING BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT ENTIRELY AN ISOLD SHRA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD KEEPING CENTRAL FL IN THE
WARM SECTOR WITH LIGHT SERLY WINDS. HAVE ADDED SOME MVFR VSBY`S FOR
AFT 08Z-09Z IN SOME OF OUR MAINLY INTERIOR TAFS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR IFR VSBY`S AND LOW STRATUS LATE OVERNIGHT AND
UPDATE/AMEND ACCORDINGLY.

.MARINE...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FL FORECAST TO ADVANCE BACK NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT. ESE/SE WINDS WILL DOMINATE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS...15 KTS WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS 2-3 FT
VERY NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD LATE
TO 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-6 FT WELL OFFSHORE/CAPE NORTHWARD.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS LATE TONIGHT OFFSHORE FOR NORTH OF THE CAPE.
AN 8 SECOND ENE LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES TO PERSIST.

ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
POTENTIALLY MOVING OFFSHORE ALL NORTH OF THE CAPE. ISOLD-SCT SHRA`S
ELSEWHERE.

MON...SE WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS...THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED (CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS FOR SEAS OFFSHORE) WITH PRESENCE OF
THE PERSISTENT SWELL COMPONENT.

TUE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
AND LEAD TO WEST FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST. SOME EAST SWELL WILL
BE LINGERING...KEEPING SEAS 3-5 FEET...BUT WINDS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN
AFTERNOON SOUTH BREVARD TO THE TREASURE COAST.

WED-FRI...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS IS INDICATED WED BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT SPEEDS ARE FORECAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE WATERS THU AND PROVIDE GOOD
BOATING CONDITIONS. A WEAKENING FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH ON
FRI AND POSSIBLY KICK UP NORTHERLY WINDS TO 10-15 KNOTS BY FRI
NIGHT.

.CLIMATE...ORLANDO HAS AT LEAST TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY
WITH VERO BEACH AND MELBOURNE COMING VERY CLOSE TO THEIR RECORDS.
MELBOURNE AND VERO BEACH ARE FORECAST TO BREAK THEIR RECORD HIGHS
FOR MONDAY.

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY NOV 8 AND FOR MON NOV 9...

DAB 8-NOV 88 1946 9-NOV85 1986
MCO 8-NOV 89 1928 9-NOV90 1911
MLB 8-NOV 89 1943 9-NOV86 1975
VRB 8-NOV 89 1996 9-NOV86 1989

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 72 83 71 81 / 50 40 30 20
MCO 72 86 72 85 / 30 40 30 20
MLB 75 87 73 86 / 20 40 30 30
VRB 73 87 72 87 / 20 30 30 30
LEE 73 84 71 83 / 50 50 30 20
SFB 72 86 72 84 / 40 40 30 20
ORL 72 86 72 84 / 30 40 30 20
FPR 74 87 72 87 / 20 30 20 30

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....LASCODY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

1005 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.UPDATE...

LIKE YESTERDAY, MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. PWATS HAVE COME DOWN
SLIGHTLY AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ARRIVING AT H7 MAY LEAD TO LESS
COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY. NAM/GFS ADVERTISING A DRY FORECAST
BECAUSE OF THIS LAYER WHEREAS THE HRRR SOLUTION MIMICS SATURDAY`S.
THUS, POPS WILL BE FORECASTED IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO DIFFERING
EXTREMES. WITH FAVORABLE H5 TEMPS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF
COAST AND LAKE REGION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, BUT MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AND
ALONG THE GULF COAST, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE ATLANTIC COAST
LOOKS MOSTLY QUIET TODAY, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.
FOR KAPF, SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AREA. HAVE KEPT THE VCTS FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. IN
ADDITION A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF CONVECTION IN
THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO AND THE HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO TRACK
TO THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY WHILE THE LOW IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEAST GULF. MEANWHILE THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH NEAR HISPANIOLA
IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST AND COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS THIS EVENING.

FOR TODAY...ALL THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL LEAD TO
SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...PARTLY DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH NEAR HISPANIOLA, CONTINUING
AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN NORTHERN FLORIDA MIGHT BE IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING BUT IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THAT. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WARM TODAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SUPPLY AND GENERAL INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AROUND THE LAKE REGION AND
WESTERN INTERIOR. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.

FOR MONDAY...AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWEST
THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT COULD BE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
AND MIGHT DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW. THIS SCENARIO WOULD CONTINUE
TO FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND AGAIN BRING SOME
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO START RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION IS LESSENED BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
INTERIOR REGIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR TUESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE
NOW FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
BUT AGAIN LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARMER MID-LEVELS WILL NOT
FAVOR ACTIVE CONVECTION BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ONLY
FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR REGIONS.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BY WEDNESDAY A DRYING TREND IS IN
STORE WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR PENINSULA ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW
70. HIGHER PRESSURE AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MARINE...

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS TODAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NORTHERLY WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE GULF
STREAM WITH GULF STREAM SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET.
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 78 89 75 / 20 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 78 87 76 / 30 20 30 20
MIAMI 88 77 88 76 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 92 74 88 74 / 30 30 30 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE....21/KM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

944 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE BACKING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING TO THE
12 TO 17MPH RANGE. THE H5 TROUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND GIVE WAY TO A SURFACE HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING...MORNING STRATUS WILL CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS A RESULT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
HIGH. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM FOR THE
TRI-STATE AREA.

PRIOR TO THE STORM SYSTEM THE AREA WILL SEE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ADVECT WARMER AIR UP FROM THE
SOUTH. WITH NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
FALL TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FORECAST AND IMPACTS OF UPCOMING WINTER STORM...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA. IN GENERAL THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE
STRONGEST...MOST PROLONGED MOISTURE WILL BE. THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL LESSEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME. MAY HAVE NOT GONE COOL ENOUGH FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BEHIND THE FRONT
WINDS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN. MODELS INDICATE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60
MPH MAY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...WITH THE SWATH OF HIGH WINDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. KEPT WINDS IN THE FORECAST ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE FOR NOW IN CASE THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH. DID CONTINUE TO INCREASE WINDS AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DID...SO THE TREND IS GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING WHICH IS
WHEN THE SNOWFALL WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RATES. IF CURRENT DATA
HOLDS...THERE WILL BE NO VISIBILITY IN THE MODERATE SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO DRIFTS OVER ROADS...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO TRAVEL WHERE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN OR ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM SOME. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END
AND WINDS TO DECLINE DURING THE EVENING.

DUE TO RAIN BEING MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW...IF TEMPERATURES BECOME
COLD ENOUGH A LAYER OF ICE MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ON ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO FAR INTO THE DETAILS OF THE FIRST WINTER
STORM OF THE SEASON SINCE IT IS STILL FOUR DAYS AWAY...BUT CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE TO LOOK PROMISING. THE ONLY SURE BET SO FAR IS THE
STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY.

SHIFTING TO MORE OF AN ANALYSIS STANDPOINT...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PATH OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER
WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WITH EACH OF THE LAST THREE MODEL RUNS.
DECIDED TO LOOK AT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GFS FORECAST FIELDS BECAUSE
OF THIS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVER THE AREA...A SWATH OF UPPER
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AND TRACKS TO THE EAST.
THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DEEP PROLONGED LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA. LAPSE RATES IN THIS SAME AREA...WHICH IS ALSO
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL
DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS ENDS UP HAPPENING THERE WILL BE A NARROW AREA
OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

LOOKING AT THE MOISTURE CONTENT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER MIXING RATIOS
DO SHOW THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE
STRONG LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS. LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE SNOW WILL BE NORMAL BASED ON THE MIXING RATIOS.

AFTER THE WINTER STORM EXPECT DRY CONDTIONS AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 936 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO. THE NAM HAS BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASING AT
KGLD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING NEAR KGLD BUT THE HRRR DOES NOT
INDICATE ANY STRATUS CEILING IN THE AREA.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

945 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

HOURLY POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOST PREVALENT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH AND A SFC WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK UP THE APPALACHIANS. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY/
OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY AID IN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERING FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. OTHER HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON
RECENT OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

A MID AND UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH LIES ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE HAS
INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM NEARS THE REGION. MEASURABLE RAIN HAS RECENTLY BEEN NOTED
AT JKL AND LOZ. SOME OF THE ASOS SITES ARE ALSO REPORTING EITHER
DRIZZLE OR SOME LIGHT RAIN. THIS LIGHT RAIN SHOULD INCREASE A BIT
FURTHER THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON TUESDAY AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ON OFF INTO THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY.
LOW LEVEL FLOW THOUGH WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WESTERLY OR SOMEWHAT
UPSLOPE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON TUESDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE APPALACHIANS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...SO SOME DRIZZLE OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE
LOWER LEVEL SATURATE FURTHER...STRATUS BUILD DOWN WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG AS WELL AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDS.

OTHERWISE...SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO HOURLY POPS
WHILE REMAINING GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

AFTERNOON SURFACE CHART INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF
SHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BROUGHT DECENT SOAKING RAIN THE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEARER THE VA BORDER TODAY...HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING AND
DRIER AIR SEEM TO WAIN THE PRODUCTION IN MOST AREAS OF EASTERN KY.
THAT SAID THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS AIDED IN THIS PROCESS IS
PROGGED TO BE ACROSS MO THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO EJECT
ENE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE AS ENERGY TRAVERSES EAST AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MULTIPLE MODELS AND GUIDANCE PRODUCTS WANT TO DEVELOP A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND MOVE IT DUE NORTH OVERNIGHT...THERE IS ALSO A
DECENT 850MB JET THAT KICKS IN TO HELP IN THE PROCESS. THAT SAID
DID BRIEFLY ENHANCE CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BEFORE THE BETTER LIFT CREEPS NORTH
OF THE REGION AND PRECIP WAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS RELATIVELY WEAK AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS QUIET STRETCH GOING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT SHOULD BRING A COOL NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE...AND LEFT OVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE START OF THE
EXTENDED AND WITH THE MAIN FEATURE IMPACTING THE FORECAST THIS GO
AROUND. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MODEL SYNCHRONICITY STARTS TO FLAG LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GEM AND GFS BUT EXHIBITING SIMILAR
STRENGTH. THE CORE OF THE ENERGY FROM THE ECMWF ALSO STAYS FURTHER
SOUTH AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME...HEIGHT FALLS AND A BAND OF ENERGY WILL
SWEEP INTO KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE TROUGH PASSES
TO THE NORTH. THE MODEL SPREAD THEN INCREASES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...THOUGH...LOW HEIGHTS AND FAST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN QUEBEC. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT FOLLOWS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...JUST WEAK ENERGY PACKETS WILL BE NOTED. HEIGHTS SHOULD
BE ON THE REBOUND FOR THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT WX THIS PERIOD...HAVE YIELDED TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 SOLUTION FOR FORECAST DETAILS AND FAVORED A BLEND
THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SEASONABLY WARM DAY AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER A DRY START TO
THE DAY...MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE CWA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS. BY LATE EVENING...DEWPOINTS
WILL BE UP INTO THE LOW 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED ALONG BY A STRONG MID LEVEL
JET STEAK WITH STORMS LIKELY FORMING WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE
AIR MASS CLASH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
QUITE LIMITED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT
NIGHT...BUT A SQUALL LINE IS A DECENT BET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ITS MOMENTUM FROM THE WEST MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAKE IT INTO THE CWA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY. EITHER
WAY...GUSTY SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE REMNANTS
AND FROPA LATE THAT NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
RAPIDLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON HELPING TO
CLEAR OUT LINGERING SHOWERS AND ALSO THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A CHILLY PERIOD OF QUIET WX WILL FOLLOW
INTO AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TRUDGES ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG WITH MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH PULLS EAST AND WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE
SOUTH.

ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHTS. AGAIN TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING TO BETTER REPRESENT HOURLY MOVEMENT OF THE
HIGHEST VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

SHOWERS AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS IS LEADING TO MANY OF THE CENTRAL
LOCATIONS THAT HAD BEEN VFR DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE. MVFR
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WITH EKQ AND SME HAVING RECENTLY
DROPPED INTO THE IFR RANGE. KSJS WILL LIKELY BE THE LATEST TO
EXPERIENCE A DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN
MOVE INTO THAT AREA AND OVERCOME THE LINGERING DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS
OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PERSISTENCE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LAMP GUIDANCE POINT TOWARD A
CONTINUATION OF OR DETERIORATION TO AT LEST IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY
VIS AS WELL AT TIMES. THESE LOW CIGS AND VIS SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT AND IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TO MVFR BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z...AND THEN VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
932 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 931 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015

The forecast is pretty much on track as low clouds and patchy light
rain and drizzle continue to move through the region. Timing the
back edge of the clouds eastward overnight from satellite loops, it
looks like we could get some clearing in the far west towards dawn.
If this does happen, fog could form quickly. So, have added some
patchy fog west of I-65 for a few hours around sunrise. No other
changes.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 317 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015

Upper low is currently centered over Missouri, with a weak surface
low moving up through eastern KY. Deformation band of light to
moderate rain has set up nicely across the western CWA. and will
slowly pivot along a mostly N to S axis through the remainder of the
afternoon evening. This occurs as the upper low moves into Illinois.
Best rainfall coverage occurs along and west of I-65 where we will
have the highest rain chances depicted. Current HRRR and NAM runs
handle this well. East of I-65, precipitation has split up into a
separate area associated with isentropic lift and is mostly east of
the CWA. So, expecting our east to be relatively dry with only a
chance for measurable through the afternoon and early evening. Temps
should continue to hover about where they are.

A sharp PV anomaly rotates around the parent upper low into our
region overnight which will help to enhance the remaining low level
moisture enough to yield some isolated to scattered measurable pops
and/or patchy drizzle. Temps should mostly drop into the low and mid
40s.

Expect most of the CWA to be dry by the morning commute, although do
have to hold onto mention of some very slight chances of a
measurable shower or patchy drizzle across the bluegrass through mid
morning.

Othwerise, Tuesday will be dry with clearing skies from west to east
and temperatures reaching into the low 60s in most spots. Expect
upper 50s in the east where clouds hang on the longest.

Tuesday night brings mostly clear skies with pressure gradient
startint to establish a steady SSE flow. Expect to only see a very
subtle response in low level moisture and most valleys will
decouple. So, looking for upper 30s in the cool spots, with low 40s
in areas that are able to stay slightly mixed.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 317 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Wed Night...

Wednesday - Wednesday Night...

Wednesday will be dry as surface high pressure and progressive upper
ridge axis hold over our region. A steady south wind and mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies will allow temps to rise into the upper
60s and low 70s in some spots during the afternoon.

Upstream, a potent upper system (characterized by 150 kt upper level
jet, and 100-110 kt 500 mb jet) will eject out of the southern
Plains and into the mid Mississippi River Valley by Wednesday
evening. 500 mb trough will take on a negative tilt during this
transition. Associated surface low will deepen as it moves from
western KS to western IA. Strong upper divergence will overspread
the mid Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys through the afternoon and
into the evening hours, resulting in a strong low level jet (50-60
kts) response. At the surface, SSE winds will increase in response
to the pressure falls. Expecting to see 15 to 20 mph, occasionally
gusting around 25-30 mph Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.

Wind fields are undoubtedly impressive, however question continues
to remain with regard to instability. Surface based instability axis
continues to look meager to non-existent as only a very narrow
corridor of 55-60 dew points will build ahead of the cold front.
Despite the lack of instability, still think pockets of gusty to
potentially damaging winds will be possible within strongly forced
line via a couple of bowing segments, particularly across our
western CWA. Organized line of storms should overall weaken as they
progress east through the overnight.

Also, am a bit concerned about a secondary line of showers/storms
right along the frontal boundary, which seems to coincide with the
best instability axis. Low level theta surfaces become vertical
during this time which could allow 30 to 40 mph gradient wind gusts.
Gust potential could then be enhanced by any shower/storm. It is
entirely possible that this could be the worst part of the event,
with the pre-frontal trough acitivity too elevated for wind damage
and mainly just gusty stratiform rain. Either way, the main threat
Wednesday evening will be gusty winds, with a few pockets of
damaging winds likely. Rainfall totals really don`t look all that
impressive given the speed that the system moves through. A brief
spin-up tornado threat is non-zero, but at this point seems pretty
unlikely given the unimpressive dew points and the lack of at least
a little bit of surface based instability.

Timing of between 8 PM to 3 AM EST still looks pretty good for the
bulk of the event. Western areas can expect the earlier part of the
time frame, with the east getting in on the action later.

Thursday - Monday...

Cold front will be east of our CWA by dawn on Thursday. We`ll remain
under the influence of an occasionally reinforced upper trough
Saturday, however lack of moisture will keep things dry. Overall
temperatures will be cool during this time with high mostly in the
50s. A few spots may not reach 50 on Friday and Saturday afternoons.
Lows Thursday night will drop into the 30s, with Friday night lows
down around 30.

Upper ridge and surface high pressure try to hold over the area
through Monday, which will bring continued dry and moderating temps.
Highs Sunday should be back in the upper 50s, and likely touching 60
in many spots by Monday.

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 627 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015

A very challenging forecast to be sure, given variable ceilings well
below fuel alternates. Overall, it appears we will be stuck with at
least IFR ceilings and MVFR vsbys through the overnight hours, with
slow improving of vsby and lifting of ceilings Tuesday morning. Will
have to keep an eye on the back edge of the clouds moving in from
the west, since if that clearing comes in early enough visibility
could tank quickly. Right now it appears to make it to BWG around
12Z and SDF a couple hours later, so if fog does form with the
clearing it would be very brief before mixing out.

Once the clouds do clear out, Tuesday will be a very pleasant day
with sunshine and light winds.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........13
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

555 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015

Revised aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1253 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015

Main weather story of interest is the potent storm system that
will affect the central states Wednesday and Wednesday night.
A powerful shortwave will eject northeast across the central
Plains on Wednesday. An associated 500 mb jet streak around 110
knots will cross the Lower Ohio Valley Wednesday evening. The
models are in very good agreement on the track of the rapidly
deepening surface low, which should be across the southeast corner
of Nebraska Wednesday afternoon to Wisconsin Wed night.

As is often the case in fall convective situations, moisture and
instability are the questionable factors. However, the latest buoy
observations in the northern Gulf of Mexico indicate surface dew
points in the mid 60s. An increasingly strong southerly low level
jet is forecast to advect this moisture northward Tuesday into
Wednesday. The latest deterministic runs of both the GFS and
ECMWF indicate 2-meter dew points from 60 to 65 degrees
overspreading our region late Wednesday.

The strong synoptic forcing associated with this deepening system
may compensate for very limited instability. This system is
forecast to be considerably deeper than the system late last week.
CIPS analogs for November 11 suggest a corridor of severe weather
roughly coincident with the day 3 risk area outlined by the SPC.
The southerly low level jet is forecast to increase to around 60
knots Wednesday evening. Besides increasing low-level rotation
potential, this should also lead to gusty gradient winds. However,
mixing will be poor due to the steadily declining sun angle,
extensive cloudiness, and possible precip.

Other than the mid-week system, the main item of interest is the
rain currently affecting southwest Indiana and parts of west KY.
This rain is associated with an upper-level low over central
Missouri. The system will make steady east/northeast progress
tonight, and precip will exit our region early this evening.
Tuesday will be mainly sunny, although there is the potential for
some morning fog and low clouds where rain has occurred today.

Temps will moderate ahead of the mid-week system, with highs
possibly reaching 70 on Wednesday. The coolest temps will occur
tonight, prior to the onset of southerly flow. Lows will be in the
30s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 144 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015

The long term portion of the forecast begins with the Veteran`s
Day Storm having just made passage. Its effects will linger, even
as pcpn has ended...surface high pressure will slowly wedge in as
the surface low continues to wind up over the Great Lakes. The
gradient thus stays stronger over the eastern FA for nearly the
entirety of the day Thursday, while by later in the pm hours, it
will begin to relax in the western portions of the FA. This is
reasonably well reflected in the blend, with only minor massaging
anticipated.

As the surface high remains centered just to the west, and the
mean long wave trof makes passage, the resultant cool
predominantly nwly drag of air into the FA will play out in the
temp forecast right on into the weekend. Even with sunshine
returning, we`ll see daily highs struggling to exceed the 50s,
with nighttime lows in the 30s, commonplace, through the weekend.

That doesn`t change until the mean long wave moves east, and some
teleconnected ridging moves in for early next week. A slight
warmup therefore, on Monday, is possible, with Highs/Lows nudging
toward the lower half of the 60s/40s, respectively. After the dry
weekend, small rain chances may return with this early week
warmup, though model disagreement makes it difficult to pinpoint
timing. We suspect Monday will be largely dry, with better chances
by Tuesday, but wont argue Pop appearance from the west by late
Monday/day 7.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 555 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015

Main concern tonight is the continuation of low clouds and potential
for fog at our eastern forecast terminals. MVFR/IFR ceilings are
forecast to persist at KEVV/KOWB through all or part of the evening.
KEVV should clear first, followed by KOWB around midnight. Lingering
low level moisture from rain earlier in the day should result in the
development of MVFR and eventually IFR fog at both sites overnight.
While not explicitly mentioned in the forecast at this point, some
of the guidance suggests dense fog may become a concern late tonight
through mid morning Tuesday. Will monitor conditions through the
evening and adjust the forecast as necessary.

The western half of the forecast area, including KPAH and KCGI,
escaped the rain today and should continue to exist under a much
drier regime. So while some light radiation fog is possible around
sunrise, mainly at KCGI, VFR conditions should prevail at these two
sites. Winds will be near calm tonight and become light southerly on
Tuesday.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

AVIATION...RJP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
627 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 317 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015

Othwerise, Tuesday will be dry with clearing skies from west to east
and temperatures reaching into the low 60s in most spots. Expect
upper 50s in the east where clouds hang on the longest.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 317 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Wed Night...

Wednesday - Wednesday Night...

Timing of between 8 PM to 3 AM EST still looks pretty good for the
bulk of the event. Western areas can expect the earlier part of the
time frame, with the east getting in on the action later.

Thursday - Monday...

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 627 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015

Once the clouds do clear out, Tuesday will be a very pleasant day
with sunshine and light winds.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

348 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY THEN
MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS BANDS OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE ST
LAWRENCE STREAMERS OF FLURRIES AND EVEN EMBEDDED SN SHWRS OVR PTNS
OF NRN ME VERY ERLY THIS MORN FROM ERN QB BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT. FCST HRLY TRENDS OF RADAR REF FROM HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY 530 AM EST...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SCT ERLY MORN FLURRIES FROM ZONES 4...5 AND 6 NWRD.
WITH GREATER LLVL SUBSIDENCE XPCTD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF ACROSS THE FA BY 7 AM EST... WE FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT THE HRRR
FCST TREND OF DISSIPATING FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SN SHWRS...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNFL FOR A FEW LCTNS THAT EXPERIENCE
BRIEF HEAVIER SN SHWRS ERLY THIS MORN.

OTHERWISE...SC CLD CVR WILL BECOME MORE SCT ACROSS THE N BY AFTN
WITH MSLY SUNNY SKIES XPCTD ALL DAY ACROSS E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER THAN
YSTDY...AND WNW WINDS WILL AGAIN BE BRISK...BUT NOT QUITE SO AS
YSTDY.

SKIES WILL BEGIN MSLY CLR THIS EVE AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH
DECOUPLING FROM STRONGER WINDS ALF. CLDS THEN INCREASE LATER TNGT
FROM THE WNW FOR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA AS A NARROW WARM
ADVCN BAND OF CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LVL JET STREAK
MOVES IN THE FA FROM ERN QB. THESE CLDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE FALL
OF TEMPS SUN NGT...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY PRIOR TO MDNGT ACROSS THE
N HLF OF THE FA. WE BRING SLGT CHC POPS OF SN/RN SHWRS FROM VERY
ERLY TO LATE MORN MON ACROSS THE NRN QUARTER OF THE FA AS THE AXIS
OF THIS NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE CROSSES THIS PTN OF THE FA...WITH
THE BAND LIFTING NE OF THE REGION MON AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER ON MON FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT SPCLY FOR THE SW HLF WHICH
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHC TO BREAK BACK INTO SUNSHINE BY AFTN.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
SOUTH. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THE
00Z NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM, ACTUALLY
CENTERING IT SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD HAVE
PRECIPITATION POISED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST BY SUNSET. HOWEVER, THE
NAM`S CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER AND BELIEVE IT IS TOO FAR NORTH AND
EAST WITH ITS LOW. THEREFORE, TUESDAY LOOKS TO STAY DRY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WAS ON TWO POTENTIAL SYSTEMS, ONE FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THE OTHER TOWARD THE END. THE FIRST
WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST AND TREKS EAST-NORTHEAST. THE 08/00Z MODELS
HAVE SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM, NOW
BRINGING IT JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS WOULD CAUSE RAIN TO
SPREAD OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, BUT CAPPED THEM AT
LIKELY SINCE THIS IS ONLY THE FIRST RUN TO INDICATE THE NORTHERN
TRACK. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BY LATER SHIFTS AS TRENDS
BECOME MORE APPARENT.

AFTER A BRIEF RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, THE FOCUS
BECOMES ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS IS A COMPLEX SYSTEM, AS LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
TWO IMPORTANT QUESTIONS: (1) HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN SETTLE INTO THE
STATE PRIOR TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW AND (2)
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE WILL THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOP? LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT OVERALL SITUATION SEEMS TO SHOW COLD AIR
REMAINING DAMMED UP OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW
OVER THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY BECOME A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE, SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD START OUT
AS RAIN AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE EVENT. WARM AIR REALLY INCREASES
OVERNIGHT, SO PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NOTE THAT THE THICKNESS PROGS
INDICATE SOME SLEET MAY MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH SOUNDINGS
ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE. HAVE
STAYED WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW, BUT IF THE COLD AIR HANGS IN
LONGER THAN EXPECTED, A PERIOD OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX WOULD BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. IN ADDITION, IF THE
SECONDARY LOW IS ABLE TO DEVELOP QUICKLY, COLD AIR MAY WRAP IN
MORE RAPIDLY OR PERHAPS EVEN COMPLETELY PRECLUDE SURFACE WARM AIR
MAKING IT ALL THE WAY NORTH...MEANING THAT NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE
MORE SNOW AND LESS RAIN. THE ECMWF FAVORS THIS SOLUTION, KEEPING
THE WARMER AIR SOUTH OF HOULTON, WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST
UPDATES AS THIS SYSTEM AND ITS IMPACTS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF
MVFR CLGS CNTRD ARND ERLY TO MID MON MORN ACROSS NRN MOST TAF
SITES WITH A BAND OF WARM ADVCN CLDNSS AND PERHAPS FLURRIES.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND EXPECT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY ROUGHLY 06Z WED THRU 06Z THU. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, BUT CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER AFTER 18Z THU AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS SNOW AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL BE ALL RAIN. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY SNOW.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT LOW END SCA FOR OUR WATERS
FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND MAX WV HTS UP TO 5 FT FOR OUTER
MZS...WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM MON. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF MON. AGAIN...
KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WHICH HAS DONE FAIRLY WELL OVR THE
LAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY, LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FEET.
THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1201 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY THEN
CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1155 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A LONE GROUP OF
FLURRIES OR LGT SN SHWRS OVR FAR NE ME ABOUT TO EXIT ESE INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK PROV...SO THIS UPDATE WILL NOT REFLECT ANY SN SHWR
POPS. OTHERWISE...CHANGES WERE MADE TO FCST CLD CVR BASED ON
TRENDS SEEN IN LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED BASED ON BIASES SEEN IN 11 PM OBS FROM THE PRIOR FCST OF
TEMPS AT THIS HR TO MSLY UNCHGD FCST LOWS CURRENTLY POSTED AT
7 AM SUN.

PREV DISC: SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE
2ND COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM
SHOWED THIS ACTIVITY TO SOME EXTENT AND IS BACKED UP BY THE LATEST
RUN OF THE HRRR AND 18Z NAM. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY
THE EVENING W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL EFFECTS.

WINDS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT W/SKIES CLEARING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. FIRST SHOT OF CAA ON THE WAY. DEWPOINTS
HAVE FALLEN BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BACK MORE OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING
TO RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/LOW TO
MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE 12Z UA SHOWED A DISTURBANCE BACK
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING THIS
DISTURBANCE TO SWING THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT DECENT RH FROM 900-780MBS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST LOOK
TO BE MUCH DRIER. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO CARRY MORE CLOUDS SAY
FROM HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET ON NORTH WHILE THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND DOWNEAST SHOULD HAVE LESS CLOUDS W/THE HELP ONCE AGAIN OF A
DOWNSLOPE(NW) WIND. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS AS
FORCING/CONVERGENCE APPEAR TO BE WEAK AT BEST. MUCH COLDER FOR
SUNDAY W/DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
NOVEMBER.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND BREEZY. A BIT OF
MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH, AND AHEAD OF A
SMALL SHORTWAVE, WILL PRODUCE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL THEN BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE MORE TRANQUIL THAN RECENT
DAYS WITH THE HIGH CRESTING OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS. OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING OCCLUDING FRONT
PUSHING AHEAD OF A LOW TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. THURSDAY
WILL BEGIN DRY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN
AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS BEFORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PULL IN WARMER AIR AND TURN ALL PRECIPITATION
OVER TO ALL RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE OCCLUSION PUSHES NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY OVER THE NORTH,
AS MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA PUSHES
THROUGH. CLOUDS, AND SOME SHOWERS NORTH, MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. BY MID-MORNING EXPECT NW WINDS TO
PICK UP WITH 10G20-25KTS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP
TO MVFR OR IFR LATE THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS UP. ADJUSTED WINDS DOWN STARTING OUT AS
THE OBS ONLY SHOWING 10-15 KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME UP
LATER TONIGHT W/GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. SWELL IS THERE W/4-5 FT AT 8 SECONDS AND THE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD BY EARLY SUNDAY TO A RANGE OF 4-6 FT W/THE
PERIOD DROPPING BACK TO AROUND 5-6 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA MONDAY
AND REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

616 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW
PREVAILED THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH PRES FROM THE ERN LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH OVER THE WRN PLAINS. VIS LOOP SHOWED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MI/WI/MN WITH HIGH CLOUDS WELL OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS.

TONIGHT...A WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE SW WINDS TO DIMINISH
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS
SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE
UPER 30S FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY DOWNSLOPE SW FLOW.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED SRLY
FLOW WILL AGAIN PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...WITH FCST
925-900 MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY AND A FEW MORE HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT MAX REAINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.
SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50-55 RANGE OVER THE
SE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS ON THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...SO WILL COVER
THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE MODELS FIRST. THE UPPER TROUGH COMING ON
SHORE ON THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
IN EASTERN COLORADO BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING TO 987MB IN IOWA BY
00Z THURSDAY. THE LOW MAY DEEPEN A LITTLE MORE OVER THE FOLLOWING
12HRS...BUT LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND REACH THE SOO AROUND 987MB AT 18Z THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN
SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPIN FOR AROUND
24 HOURS BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

WHILE THE STORM WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LOWER
THAN WHAT THEY COULD HAVE BEEN WITH RESPECT TO WIND DUE TO THE UPPER
LOW CLOSING OFF AND BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR IN PLACE
INITIALLY WILL LEAD TO THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND TRANSITIONS THE
RAIN TO SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

FIRST FOR THE WIND...THERE WILL BE THREE DIFFERENT WAVES OF
STRONGER WINDS AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE FIRST ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH THE STRONG (25-30KT)
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.P. THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST (GUSTING TO SIMILAR VALUES) BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING (25-40KT GUSTS). THAT LAST SHIFT WILL
LIKELY MARK THE STRONGEST WINDS DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
COLD AIR SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SHORT
GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN GALE
EVENT OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH INTO FRIDAY. THAT COULD ALSO PRODUCE
THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

FOR PRECIPITATION...THE INITIAL SURGE ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIED TO THE BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER MENTION IN PLACE
WITH THE SHOWALTER VALUES FALLING TO AROUND ZERO AND SOME POCKETS
OF MUCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK DRY
SLOT ALOFT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN CWA. BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK/MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION DURING THE REST OF THE
EVENT WILL BE TIED TO THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AIDED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C. THOSE FALLING
TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. TO LEAD TO A MARKED INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN U.P.. THE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO REACH THE EASTERN
U.P....BUT SHOULD SEE IT TAKE OFF TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE
AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ONCE IT TURNS OVER TO
SNOW...THINK A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL START TO MENTION IN THE HWO. WITH THE TIME
OF DAY AND INTENSITY...WOULD EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATION ON THE
ROADWAYS EVEN WITH THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN
HAVING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OUT WEST NEARING 1.5 INCHES.
ADD TO THAT AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OVER THE WEST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION AFTER A DRY FALL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

SRLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH
E GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI EVENING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND BACK TO THE SW AS A
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WRN LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

417 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...BREEZY SW
WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN
HIGH PRES OVER OH/PA AND A TROUGH INTO THE WRN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI WITH LOWER READINGS AROUND 50 DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MIXING WITH PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID 30S...ESPECIALLY IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS WHERE READINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 40.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH VALUES AT LEAST AS
HIGH OR SLIGHTY HIGHER THAN TODAY AS 925-900 MB TEMPS CLIMB. SO...
EXPECT TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

...LATE WEEK STORM TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SOME SNOW...

ATTN IS SQUARELY ON STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE SYSTEM...BOTH AHEAD OF THE LOW AND AGAIN
BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. COLDER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE LOW ALONG WITH
ARRIVAL OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT/MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. ALL AREAS WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS ON
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE NEXT WEEKEND...THEN BIG DIFFERENCES OCCUR
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR WHAT OCCURS JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED DAYS 8-
10. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH TROUGHS/RIDGES...SO
NO NEED TO STRAY FM CONSENSUS ATTM.

BACK TO EARLY THIS WEEK. CONDITIONS APPEAR TRANQUIL UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OFF OF PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY TUESDAY THEN HEADS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WELL AGREED UPON BY MODELS TRACKS TO
CENTRAL KS BY THAT TIME. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE LOW...MAINLY IN THE H8-H7 LAYER...BUT IT REMAINS DRY BLO CLOUD
BASE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT POPS
STAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE. LATER WED AFTN INTO WED EVENING PVA AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT 295-305K
SFCS /H85-H6/ SHOULD SUPPORT WIDEPSREAD SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS /12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OVER 250M/ DRY SLOT ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR TSRA AS SHOWN BY SI/S NEAR ZERO. THOUGH COVERAGE OF
SHRA DECREASES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...CORE OF COLDEST
AIR ALOFT WITH UPR LOW CENTER COULD LEAD TO SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA.
KEPT MENTION OF TSRA IN UNTIL SI/S START RISING WELL ABOVE ZERO.
SFC LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FM NORTHERN OR NORTHEAST WI ON THURSDAY
MORNING TO NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN/EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY EARLY AFTN.
ECMWF FARTHER WEST WITH TRACK OF LOW COMPARED TO GFS AND GEM-NH.
ONCE THE LOW CROSSES EAST OF CWA ON THURSDAY AFTN...EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NW AND BEGIN INCREASING. TRACK OF LOW AND SPEED OF LOW
WILL HAVE LARGE BEARING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS INCREASE IN WIND OCCURS.
WITH A FARTHER EAST TRACK TO THE LOW IN GFS/ECMWF COMPARED TO RECENT
MODEL RUNS...WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG ACROSS LK SUPERIOR INTO THU
NIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT 35-40 KTS IN MIXED LAYER THOUGH...SO GUSTS
NEAR THE SHORE WOULD STILL BE NEAR ADVY.

ONCE COLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL BE
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MORE MIXING AND GALES OVER LK SUPERIOR WITH
ADVY WINDS /45+ MPH GUSTS/ NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE. GUSTS OVER LAND
IN THE 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ATTN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WILL ALSO BE ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WESTERN CWA. EXTENT
OF COLD AIR IS BECOMING MORE IN QUESTION THOUGH...RESULTING IN NOT
AS CLEAR CUT AS LAKE ENHANCED SCENARIO AS IT APPEARED 24 HR AGO.
MAIN ISSUE IS SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTN
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW THE WAVE DIGGING FARTHER
SOUTH AND THEREFORE ARE WARMER OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND UPR
MICHIGAN /H85 TEMPS AROUND -3C VERSUS THE GFS SHOWING AVG OF -7C/.
EITHER SCENARIO IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT BUT ECMWF AND
GEM-NH WOULD RESULT IN MORE MARGINAL SETUP FOR MUCH SNOWFALL. SINCE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE STILL OVER PACIFIC...PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THINGS TO CHANGE...SO WILL NOT CHANGE GOING FORECAST TOO MUCH. BUT
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL ALSO NOT MENTION THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK YET.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. AS WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
LLWS TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING AT CMX AND SAW. WITH WINDS
REMAINING GUSTY AT IWD TONIGHT...LLWS WAS NOT INCLUDED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

AS HIGH PRES OVER OH/[A CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST...SW
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY. SRLY WINDS AOB 20 KNOTS MON INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH E
GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

352 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS ATTENTION MID TO LATE WEEK AS A STRONG STORMS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN BY MODELS. SEE THE FORECAST FOR MON
THROUGH TUE DETAILS AS CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET.

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT 00Z WED WILL
STRENGTHEN LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND BECOME STACKED OVER A ROUGHLY
990MB SFC OVER KS BY 12Z WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREE
SHOWING THE STACKED LOW MOVING OVER OR JUST S OF THE SRN CWA BY 12Z
THU AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS TO AROUND 982MB. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT...REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES IN LATE THU INTO THU
NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH IT. 850MB TEMPS WILL
FALL FROM AROUND 4C AT 12Z THU TO -4C TO -8C BY 12Z FRI. ADDITIONAL
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO SAT BEHIND
THE REINFORCING TROUGH AS IT MERGES WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM FORMING
A BROAD UPPER LOW. RIDGING LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT SOME POINT LATER IN
THE WEEKEND.

WINDS...INCREASING WINDS ON WED WILL ARC FROM A SE DIRECTION OVER
MOST OF THE CWA TO E-NE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS LATER
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WILL RESULT AS THE LOW PASSES
NEARBY...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK. NW-W GALES AND
WIND ADVISORIES (IN EXPOSED LAND LOCATIONS) WILL DEVELOP LATER THU
AND MORE OR LESS CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT. 925MB WINDS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE 40-50KTS AND WITH MUCH COLDER AIR SURGING
IN...SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MIXING TO THAT LEVEL. THAT THIS TIME
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG GALES. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW
GALES BY SAT MORNING AND CONTINUE TO DROP OFF DURING THE DAY SAT.

PRECIP...RAIN MAY MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TUE NIGHT...BUT MAINLY
NOT UNTIL WED. WED EVENING INTO EARLY WED NIGHT SHOULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN UNDER THE CURRENT MODELED TRACK/TIMING. RAIN CONTINUES
OVER AT LEAST MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...GRADUALLY MIXING WITH SNOW W
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES IN AND ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC
FORCING MOVES IN. COULD SEE SOME THUNDER ON THU AS THE LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD. THU NIGHT WILL SEE SNOW BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS
THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
OVER. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL RESULT IN W-WNW WIND BELTS THU
NIGHT...WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS TURN MORE NW
THROUGH THE DAY FRI...SO THE FAVORED PRECIP BELTS WILL TRANSITION.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD TURN EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
RAIN OVER THE E AND RIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRI AFTERNOON...BUT
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE W WILL SEE SNOW THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE
WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP THEN TAPERS OFF
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CHANGE WITH THE
VOLATILE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THOSE WITH INTERESTS
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

405 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM NE CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
SHRTWV THAT WAS SLIDING THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR HELPED SUPPORT A
MESO-LOW LIKE BAND OF PCPN AND WINDS THROUGH SRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW
LEVEL TEMPS WERE WARM ENOUGH SO THAT MAINLY RAIN WAS OBSERVED INTO
P53. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN FARTHER INLAND
SIMILR TO WHAT OCCURRED OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING WHERE A COATING
OF SNOW FELL.

TONIGHT INTO SUN...EXPECT SCT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO CONTINUE FOR NW
FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE ERN CWA WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND
-6C/-15C AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING. 300-310 WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THE PCPN MAINLY FROM P53 EASTWARD. WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO WRLY WITH QUICKLY FALLING
INVERSION HEIGHTS BY 06Z WHICH SHOULD END THE PCPN. MAINLY RAIN
IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SHORE WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INLAND. ANY
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. INLAND...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN WITH FCST MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1K FT...SUNSHINE AND WAA WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO LOWER 50S SUN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS ATTENTION MID TO LATE WEEK AS A STRONG STORMS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN BY MODELS. SEE THE FORECAST FOR MON
THROUGH TUE DETAILS AS CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. DID ADD SOME LLWS INTO ALL SITES INTO SUN MORNING AS STRONG
WINDS CONTINUE OFF THE SFC. WILL MIX THESE DOWN BY AFTERNOON AND
THIS WILL END THE LLWS AND WINDS WILL GET GUSTY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN LAKES BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS.
AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY...SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS TO 25 KTS REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. E GALES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
LATE THU INTO FRI...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1238 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015

...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MID TO LATE WEEK...

UPPER LEVELS START OUT ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT RIDGE FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. CUTOFF SHORTWAVE DRIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY...BUT SYSTEM IS SO STARVED FOR
MOISTURE PROBABLY WILL NOT EVEN SEE ANY HIGH CLOUDS. MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
50S WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SW-S. MIXING HEIGHTS FORECAST TO BE 2-3KFT
BUT IF THEY END UP HIGHER COULD SEE MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY REACH NEAR
60 DEGREES AT DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF WEST AND CNTRL NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT COULD DIP NEAR FREEZING
AT SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE H8-H7 AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
AHEAD OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH CROSSING WESTERN CONUS AND SFC TROUGH FM
EASTERN CO INTO NORTHERN MN. STRONGEST SFC LOW IN THE TROUGH WITH
MSLP OF 995-1000MB WILL BE OVER CO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. POPS ONLY LOW
CHANCE TUE NIGHT THOUGH AS LIFT IS WEAK AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE
LACKING. MAY EVEN BE SITUATION WHERE DZ OCCURS INSTEAD OF RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS.

ATTN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ON DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER KS/NEB DOWN TO MSLP OF 990-995MB. SETUP AT LEAST FOR MOST OF
DAY APPEARS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT/LARGER SCALE FORCING. SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATER TUE AFTN. SE WINDS MAY
RESULT IN BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY OVER CNTRL CWA DUE TO
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFT. DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SOME
RAIN IN ADDITION TO SE WINDS OFF LK MICHIGAN...TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL STAY NEAR 50 DEGREES. THIS IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER.

WESTERN TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THIS DEEP SYSTEM ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
DEEPENING SFC LOW /FALLING BLO 990MB ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT
MOVES FROM IA TO WI/ LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
DEEP LIFT FM THE STRONG UPPER LOW /12 HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 300M IN 12
HRS/ AND SHARP RIBBON OF 1000-850MB THETA-E/PWATS OVER 1 INCH SHOULD
SUPPORT SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TO NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRYING ALOFT MOVING IN WITH UPPER SYSTEM
OVERNIGHT LEADS TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE
TSRA. DRY SLOT EVENTUALLY SHOULD DIMINISH RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. E-SE WINDS WILL GET GUSTY AS THE DEEPENING SFC LOW
MOVES CLOSER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND OVER EASTERN CWA.
SINCE CORE OF UPPER LOW AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT MOVES ACROSS ON
THURSDAY...KEPT MENTION OF TSRA IN THE MORNING.

GRANTED A LOT CAN CHANGE IN THE MODELS BTWN NOW AND LATER THIS WEEK
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CAUSE THIS LOW IS STILL
OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...BUT ATTM BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF RUNS
SINCE LAST EVENING INDICATE SFC LOW POSSIBLY BLO 980MB CROSSES CNTRL
UPR MICHIGAN THURSDAY. WITH SUCH STRONG LOW OVERHEAD...ATTN ONCE THE
LOW MOVES BY WILL TURN TO COLD AIR ADVECITON AND PROBABLY MORE OF AN
ISSUE...VERY STRONG W-WNW WINDS. SFC LOW WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF LK
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN. THOUGH THE ECWMF IS AROUND 10 MB
WEAKER WITH MSLP CENTER COMPARED TO GFS...WIND FIELDS WITH SYSTEM ARE
SIMILAR. BOTH MODELS SHOW H925 WINDS 50 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR THU
EVENING. WINDS ARE PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE
1000-850MB LAYER SO MIXING SHOULD BE EFFICENT. DO NOT SEE WHY THERE
WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM. INCREASED WINDS OVER
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. RESULT IS A SOLID GALE OVER LK SUPERIOR...LIKELY
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR ADVY LEVEL
WINDS ALONG LK SUPERIOR SHORE FOR AREAS FAVORED BY W-WNW WINDS.

DEEP TROUGH ALOFT APPEARS TO BE REINFORCED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT COLD AIR /H85
TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY ARE AROUND -6C/ TO RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
FOR MUCH OF CWA ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WOULD BE FAVORED FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. STRONG GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS. TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN
THE 30S OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LK
MICHIGAN. TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS NEXT SATURDAY AND SFC LOW MOVES INTO
QUEBEC. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

523 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE
HAS COME ASHORE AS OF MID AFTERNOON AND WV IMAGERY HAS THIS FEATURE
NOW ROUGHLY NEAR SACRAMENTO CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...A
SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT OVER MISSOURI WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE PRESENT
IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH NOTED. UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...3 PM CST READINGS RANGED FROM 56 AT
IMPERIAL...TO 64 AT VALENTINE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015

FAIR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. IF FOG DOES
DEVELOP IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE WHEN WINDS WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A VERY MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. H850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO
AROUND 12 TO 15C...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED
TODAY...SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S AND POSSIBLY NEARING 70 IN
THE SANDHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AKA THE
STORM. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WILL
TRACK FROM NORTHWESTERN KS INTO CENTRAL IOWA FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. A PLETHORA OF WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FEATURE...BEGINNING WITH STRONG WINDS...PRECIPITATION...SOME OF
WHICH WILL FALL AS SNOW...AND THE THREAT FOR SHORT DURATION WINTER
STORM OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH RESPECT TO
WINDS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN OVER NORTHERN KS
WEDS MORNING...THEN TRACK INTO SERN NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY WEDS. INTENSE
PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 6 MB WILL SLIDE FROM SWRN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WEDS MORNING WITH H85 WINDS INCREASING TO 60+ KTS ACROSS
SWRN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BROKEN
BOW HAVE 40 KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT 18Z WEDS. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HOISTED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
FRONTIER...LINCOLN...CUSTER...LOUP...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES.
ONE DISCLAIMER HERE...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGH WIND WATCH AREA. IF TEMPERATURES TREND
DOWNWARD FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST...WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW THREAT. FURTHER WEST...IN
ADDITION TO WIND...RAIN WILL MIX WITH...THEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WEDS
MORNING. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ACROSS
THE SERN PANHANDLE...AND PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN NEBRASKA. THIS IS DUE
TO LIFT BEING MAXIMIZED DURING THE COOLEST TIME OF THE DAY AND THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL LIFT ACROSS NERN COLORADO...NW KS AND
FAR SWRN NEBRASKA IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. ATTM...THIS FORCING
APPEARS TO PEAK ACROSS FAR NWRN KS/NERN COLORADO...OR JUST OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE GENERAL LOCATION OF THIS POTENTIAL BAND OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM DEUEL
COUNTY...EAST TO KEITH...AND SOUTH TO CHASE AND HAYES COUNTIES FOR
WEDS MORNING/AFTN. IF THIS BAND DOES DECIDE TO TREND FARTHER NORTH
WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...WE MAY HAVE A SHORT DURATION...HIGH
IMPACT WINTER EVENT ON OUR HANDS WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS POSSIBLE
WEDS MORNING. FURTHER EAST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN KS WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A NICE DEFORMATION BAND
OF PCPN FROM SWRN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. BL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEDS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD
FAVOR ALL RAIN...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DYNAMIC COOLING IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES ARE GREAT ENOUGH. FOR
THIS...DECIDED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW MIX WEDS
AFTERNOON IN THE SW...EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH ARE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEFORMATION BAND
AND HIGHEST PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES. AGAIN...IF TEMPERATURES TREND
A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS...ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND HIGH TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY BE SEEN INVOF
THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PCPN. ATTM...FCST TEMPS ARE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
ALL SNOW IN THE EAST WEDS...AND HAVE OPTED FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX WITH
NO ACCUMS. BY WEDS EVENING...WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF SOME AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDS EVENING...BUT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

ON THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IOWA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. H85
WINDS INCREASE TO 40 TO 45 KTS ACROSS THE NERN CWA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL BE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
EVEN WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REACH THE 40S AS H85 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO -2C.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE MODELS TREND TOWARD BUILDING A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING DRY
AND MILD TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A HINT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTM...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO A DRY FORECAST WILL BE RETAINED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015

THE RAP MODEL...WHICH SHOWED GOOD SKILL THIS MORNING...INDICATES
A SLIVER OF FOG FORMING 09Z-15Z TUESDAY MORNING FROM KMCK TO KLBF
AND EAST...ABOUT 20-30 MILES WIDE. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED
ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ056>058-069-070.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ026>029-037-038-059-071.

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

1021 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM MON...HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT AND ADJUSTED
WORDING OF WX GRIDS TO REFLECT HEAVIEST/DEF RAIN ALONG THE OBX
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FURTHER INLAND. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT SHOWERS AT BEST WILL CROSS THE REGION AS THE
SFC LOW LIFT NORTH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COASTAL
TROUGH HAS PUSHED TO THE WESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW POSITIONED OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO. KMHX RADAR ALSO SHOWS A LOW PRES AREA JUST SE OF
CAPE LOOKOUT. WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
NC...THOUGH SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WE HAVE MOVED INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY AND ACROSS THE OUTER
BANKS AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...00Z KMHX SOUNDING
INDICATING PWAT VALUES OF 1.94"...WITH AN UPPER LOW LIFTING INTO
THE MIDWEST AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA WITH STRONG UPPER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...THINK
COASTAL SECTIONS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH REMAINING AREAS GENERALLY RECEIVING
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS OUTLOOKED IN MARGINAL RISK THOUGH DISCRETE CELLS
THAT PRODUCED COUPLETS WITH POSSIBLE WATER SPOUTS ACROSS ONSLOW
BAY HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH MAINLY STRATIFORM MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS RALEIGH BAY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS NEAR THE WEAK LOW LIFTING NE NEAR THE OUTER PORTIONS
OF RALEIGH BAY. VERY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER...PRECIP...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SLY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY STEADY NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING AND HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN
SEVERAL DEGREES INLAND BEHIND THE COASTAL TROUGH. GENERALLY EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM MON...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST EARLY TUE THEN LIFT/STRENGTHEN MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON...WHILE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
GRADUALLY WEAKENS INTO SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING MORE SCT
IN NATURE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SW FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS
GENERALLY 70-75 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY... TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT: THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONT TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THINK PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY 00Z. WILL HAVE DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM UPR 40S INLAND TO UPR 50S BEACHES.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS WED AND SLIDE OFFSHORE WED NIGHT. SHLD
HAVE MAINLY CLR SKIES AS ATMS IS QUITE DRY. HIGHS WED MID/UPR 60S
WITH LOWS WED NIGHT UPR 40S INLAND TO MID/UPR 50S BEACHES.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THU AFTN WITH SHORT
DURATION/WEAK MOISTURE INFLOW. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
FOR MAINLY NW/N TIER THU AFTN BUT REALLY DONT THINK WILL SEE MUCH
MEASURABLE RAIN. WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 70S. CAA THU NIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPR 40S INLAND
WITH BEACHES STAYING IN UPR 50S TO AROUND 60.

FRIDAY THROUGH MON: DEEP UPR TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE E
CONUS WITH BELOW CLIMO 500MB HEIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W. ATMS LOOKS VERY DRY AND EXPECT
MAINLY CLR SKIES THRU THE PERIOD. HIGHS FRI WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S THEN A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL DROP TEMPS
BLO NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S SAT INTO
MON. MIN TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S INLAND.

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO AFFECT RTES INTO TUESDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH HAS PUSHED
JUST WEST OF PGV AND ISO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS
EVIDENT BY SE WINDS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NOW IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THIS HAS ALLOWED CIGS TO LIFT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. OAJ AND
EWN HAVE LIFTED TO VFR...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING BACK TO MVFR...THIS
EVENING WHILE PGV AND ISO HAVE BEEN PRED IFR...THOUGH DID BRIEFLY
LIFT TO MVFR EARLIER. FOLLOWED HRRR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE
TAF FORECAST AS THEY HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER IN REGARDS TO THE
CEILINGS LIFTING...WHILE THE NARRE AND MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO
PESSIMISTIC KEEPING CIGS LOW. PGV AND ISO WILL LIKELY BE
PREDOMINATELY IFR OR BELOW TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
BREAKS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EWN AND OAJ ARE TOUGHER
FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH THAT CIGS WILL COME BACK
DOWN...ESPECIALLY AT EWN. HAVE FORECAST CIGS AT THESE TERMINALS
MAINLY MVFR UNTIL 06-08Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWER CIGS
POSSIBLE...THEN COMING BACK DOWN TO IFR UNTIL LATE MORNING TUESDAY
WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SOUNDINGS
DO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE COLUMN FROM 12Z ONWARD AND
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IN CONDITIONS IMPROVE FASTER ON TUESDAY THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN TUE NIGHT THRU WED AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NIGHT WITH
MCLR SKIES. FAST MOVING AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
LATER THU AND EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH VFR BASES. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W FRI THRU SAT WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM MON...NO SIG CHANCES MADE AT THIS UPDATE. LATEST OBS
SHOW SE WINDS 15-25KT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WHILE WINDS HAVE
WEAKENED TO 10-20 KT SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...WITH SEAS 5-7FT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND 6-10FT SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH OF NC WATERS BY TUE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRAD
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUE.
SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS AND SOUNDS. INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH WAVEWATCH INITIALIZING BETTER THAN LOCAL
NWPS. ISOLATED WATERSPOUT THREAT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY BETWEEN CAPE
HATTERAS AND CAPE LOOKOUT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP TUE
NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES NE WELL OFFSHORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE W WED WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 8 TO 12 KTS LATE. SOME
LINGERING 6 FT SEAS POSS OUTER WTRS INTO EARLY WED THEN SHLD
SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE WED NIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SW AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT THRU THU AFTN AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING TO
3 TO 5 FT WITH POSS SOME 6 FOOTERS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS. INIT
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THU EVENING WITH NW WINDS MAINLY 15 TO 20
KTS THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SEAS WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT. SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH NW WINDS NEAR 20 KTS LATER
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET NEAR SHORE TO
4 TO 6 FT OFFSHORE LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD/LEP
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/SK/BM
MARINE...RF/SK/CQD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

911 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COASTAL
TROUGH HAS PUSHED TO THE WESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW POSITIONED OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO. KMHX RADAR ALSO SHOWS A LOW PRES AREA JUST SE OF
CAPE LOOKOUT. WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
NC...THOUGH SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WE HAVE MOVED INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY AND ACROSS THE OUTER
BANKS AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...00Z KMHX SOUNDING
INDICATING PWAT VALUES OF 1.94"...WITH AN UPPER LOW LIFTING INTO
THE MIDWEST AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA WITH STRONG UPPER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...THINK
COASTAL SECTIONS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH REMAINING AREAS GENERALLY RECEIVING
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS OUTLOOKED IN MARGINAL RISK THOUGH DISCRETE CELLS
THAT PRODUCED COUPLETS WITH POSSIBLE WATER SPOUTS ACROSS ONSLOW
BAY HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH MAINLY STRATIFORM MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS RALEIGH BAY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS NEAR THE WEAK LOW LIFTING NE NEAR THE OUTER PORTIONS
OF RALEIGH BAY. VERY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER...PRECIP...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SLY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY STEADY NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING AND HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN
SEVERAL DEGREES INLAND BEHIND THE COASTAL TROUGH. GENERALLY EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO AFFECT RTES INTO TUESDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH HAS PUSHED
JUST WEST OF PGV AND ISO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS
EVIDENT BY SE WINDS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NOW IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THIS HAS ALLOWED CIGS TO LIFT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. OAJ AND
EWN HAVE LIFTED TO VFR...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING BACK TO MVFR...THIS
EVENING WHILE PGV AND ISO HAVE BEEN PRED IFR...THOUGH DID BRIEFLY
LIFT TO MVFR EARLIER. FOLLOWED HRRR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE
TAF FORECAST AS THEY HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER IN REGARDS TO THE
CEILINGS LIFTING...WHILE THE NARRE AND MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO
PESSIMISTIC KEEPING CIGS LOW. PGV AND ISO WILL LIKELY BE
PREDOMINATELY IFR OR BELOW TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
BREAKS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EWN AND OAJ ARE TOUGHER
FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH THAT CIGS WILL COME BACK
DOWN...ESPECIALLY AT EWN. HAVE FORECAST CIGS AT THESE TERMINALS
MAINLY MVFR UNTIL 06-08Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWER CIGS
POSSIBLE...THEN COMING BACK DOWN TO IFR UNTIL LATE MORNING TUESDAY
WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SOUNDINGS
DO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE COLUMN FROM 12Z ONWARD AND
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IN CONDITIONS IMPROVE FASTER ON TUESDAY THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 15-25KT NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT WHILE WINDS HAVE WEEKEND TO 10-20 KT SOUTH OF CAPE
LOOKOUT...WITH SEAS 5-7FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND 6-10FT SOUTH.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF NC WATERS BY TUE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRAD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT THOUGH SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUE. SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS AND
SOUNDS. INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
WAVEWATCH INITIALIZING BETTER THAN LOCAL NWPS. ISOLATED WATERSPOUT
THREAT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE
LOOKOUT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ045>047-080-081-
092>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/SK/BM
MARINE...RF/SK/CQD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

709 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND SLIDE OFFSHORE
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST. THE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AND SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM SUNDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES...BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS
ENDED BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS THROUGH THE DAY. A TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THE 3KM
HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
MAINLY THE COASTAL REGION DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY
A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 60S AT BEST.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES INLAND AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND STARTS TO REFORM TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP OMEGA AND
MOISTURE REALLY RAMP UP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A WET MONDAY. EXPECT A WIDE DISPARITY IN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH UPPER 40S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR
FLOODING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MILD TEMPS THROUGH
MIDWEEK THEN COOL AND DRY FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL YIELD A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE
AMPLE LIFT, SUBTROPICAL JET INTERACTION AND A SFC LOW AIDING IN AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF QPF THROUGH TUESDAY.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: THE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE GOM AND SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH. WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...EXPECT A
SHARP GRADIENT OF PRECIP TO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
WITH PLENTY OF WAA ALOFT. CONTINUED LIKELY/CATEGORICAL LIFTING NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY/OVERNIGHT. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP AS A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NWWRD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WILL BEGIN
INTERACTING WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE SE. THIS
BECOMES EVIDENT AS LAYER STREAMLINES TRY TO CONVERGE BUT DO NOT
QUITE SEEM TO PHASE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. MIX RATIOS INC TO +14
G/KG...EXTREMELY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PWATS INC TO AROUND 2
INCHES AND AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR EARLY NOV. MODEL
SOLUTION SHOWING A RANGE IN QPF BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES. WILL FCST
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS WITH 1-2 INCH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THESE VALUES WILL INCREASE AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT. IF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT DOES MATERIALIZES MINOR
FLOODING AND EVENTUAL RIVER FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

KEEP IN MIND THE SPREAD IN LOW TRACK IS QUITE EVIDENT WITH THE NAM
THE FURTHEST WEST ALONG THE PIEDMONT AND THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE
ILLUSTRATING THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL
IMPACT QPF TOTALS, TEMPS AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE WIND. HAVE THE LOW
MOVING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN PUTTING E NC IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
SOME INSTABILITY BUILDING MON AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. HAVE
THUNDER MENTION FOR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES (DOWNEAST CARTERET THROUGH
OBX). ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE POTENTIAL
FLOODING RAIN THREAT DUE TO THE VERY WARM MOIST AIRMASS AND DEEP
WARM LAYER. HIGHS: MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S OBX. LOWS: 60S

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WITH DECREASING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. WILL HANG ONTO LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY AS COLUMN MOISTURE STILL VERY HIGH UNDER WARM/MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS TURN W/NW AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUE EVENING
ENDING RAIN THREAT. THICKNESSES REMAIN HIGH SO TEMPS STILL WARM.
HIGHS: AROUND 70. LOWS: MID 50S INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MAINLY DRY WITH
SUBSIDENCE ENSUING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND BROAD HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH TEMPS AS
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ABOVE
CLIMO. HIGHS: AROUND 70. LOWS: MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: 07/12Z MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. NEXT
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR THUR NIGHT IN PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AT THIS TIME NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DUE
TO THE QUICK RETURN FLOW NOT BEING ABLE TO TAP MOISTURE...THOUGH
WILL HANG ONTO A 20 POP SHOULD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOW MORE THAN
EXPECTED. VERY WARM HIGHS THURSDAY MID 70S AND LOWS LOW 50S/60S.
HIGHS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY BEHIND FRONT IN THE MID 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
WEATHER AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SUNDAY...WITH GOOD MIXING BEHIND COLD FRONT...CEILINGS
HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES.
SHOULD SEE N/NE WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY DIMINISHING
BY THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST.
BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR STATUS TOWARD MORNING WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS...BUT THINK ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...RAIN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
EARLY AS MON MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GOM AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONDITIONS AGAIN LIKELY BECOMING IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND LOW CIGS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES. CLOUDS INCREASE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THOUGH LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 AM SUNDAY...GUSTY N/NE WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 33 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND 29 KNOTS AT CAPE LOOKOUT.
THE PEAK OF THE CAA SURGE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR
THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL PEAK IN THE 7 TO 10 FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TONIGHT AS GRADIENT LESSENS...BUT SEAS
WILL REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT STATUS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AS SFC LOW PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF NC BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS (15-25KTS) MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE BEFORE BECOMING NW TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.
SEAS BUILDING 6-8FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AS A RESULT.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW LIFT NORTH AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WED MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONT. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AROUND 10-20
KTS AND FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NW WINDS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS
WILL LIKELY REBOUND BRIEFLY AROUND 4-6FT. SCA HEADLINES ENDING AT
VARIOUS TIMES...WITH CENTRAL WATERS LASTING LONGEST DUE TO LINGERING
HIGH SEAS.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...CTC/LEP
MARINE...CTC/LEP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

358 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 350 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT IS NOW OFFSHORE WITH PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH ANOTHER BATCH
OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COASTAL PLAINS AREA.
EXPECT THE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST NEAR THE COAST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS...THEN A LULL FOR THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THE
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
MAINLY THE COASTAL REGION DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ONLY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 60S AT BEST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES INLAND AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND STARTS TO REFORM TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP OMEGA AND
MOISTURE REALLY RAMP UP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A WET MONDAY. EXPECT A WIDE DISPARITY IN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH UPPER 40S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR
FLOODING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MILD TEMPS THROUGH
MIDWEEK THEN COOL AND DRY FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
WEATHER AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM SUNDAY...ANY IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO AS DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR STARTS TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE AS COLD FRONT LINGERS
OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESURE DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS DIMINISHING LATE SUNDAY
EVENING.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...THE PEAK OF THE CAA SURGE BEHIND THE STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH N/NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. SEAS WILL PEAK IN THE 7 TO 10 FOOT RANGE TODAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TONIGHT AS GRADIENT LESSENS...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT STATUS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...CTC/LEP
MARINE...CTC/LEP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1220 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND END THE STRETCH OF
WARMTH. MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
FOLLOWS THIS BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY AND THEN
HEAVIER RAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MILD WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A LATE THURSDAY COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS STEADILY ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD...PUSHING ONE OF THE WARMEST NOVEMBER AIR MASSES IN
HISTORY OFF TO THE SOUTH. RECORD HIGHS WERE BROKEN IN WILMINGTON
AND NORTH MYRTLE BEACH EARLIER TODAY WITH 84 AND 81 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY. CURRENTLY THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON TO NEAR THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES...TO NEAR CONWAY
AND LAKE CITY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE WIND SHIFT AND ONSET OF COLD
ADVECTION...THE ONSET OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IS LAGGING BY 1-2
HOURS BEHIND THIS INITIAL WIND SHIFT. ONCE THIS OVERSPREADS THE
AREA THERE WILL BE NO DOUBT MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR IS STREAMING IN.

AFTER DECIDING NOT TO RAISE POPS WITH THE 630 PM UPDATE...THE WEAK
LINE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION SUDDENLY BECAME MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE...EXPANDING IN COVERAGE INTO ALMOST A SOLID LINE. SEVERAL
UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST BETWEEN 7-830 PM
ATTEMPTING TO QUICKLY INCREASE POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION. I CANNOT FIND A CLEAR REASON FOR WHY PRECIPITATION
EXPANDED AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONTENT CHANGED LITTLE
THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION INTENSIFIED WELL BEFORE THE FRONT
WAS NEAR THE AREA SUGGESTING LOW-LEVEL TRIGGERS WERE NOT INVOLVED
EITHER. NEAR-TERM MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND RUC WERE EQUALLY BAFFLED.

REGARDLESS...CONVECTION SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL...
NAMELY ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ANALYSIS OF NAM/GFS MODELS SHOWS THIS NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS BEING
GENERATED BY MOISTURE AND MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 305K-310K
THETA SURFACES...APPROXIMATELY 8000-13000 FEET AGL. UPSTREAM RADARS
SHOW ONLY PATCHY AND VERY LIGHT RETURNS OVER GEORGIA...WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY SHOWING TRACE AMOUNTS. AT THE RISK OF MAKING
THE SAME MISTAKE TWICE IN ONE SHIFT...I WILL NOT RAISE POPS LATE
TONIGHT ANTICIPATING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL BE VERY VERY
LIGHT.

WIND GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD REACH 25-30 MPH IN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO
MIX DOWN GUSTS TO 2000 FEET ALOFT. THE GFS MODEL IS GENERALLY
STRONGER WITH WIND SPEEDS AND ACTUALLY SUGGESTS GUSTS COULD REACH 35
MPH NEAR THE COAST IN THE 3-6 AM TIMEFRAME.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THOUGH SURFACE WEATHER MAP WILL SHOW COLD
FRONT STALLED WELL TO OUR SOUTH A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE GRADIENT AND
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON
SUNDAY. IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM
TIME TO TIME WITH GENTLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THE MAIN SOURCE FOR
LIFT. ON MONDAY THE FRONT WILL DRAW CLOSER TO AND PARALLEL TO THE
COAST WHILE THE COOL WEDGE OVER LAND MAY BE STRENGTHENED AS IT
GETS RAIN-COOLED. WHERE EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL DICTATE
WHO SEES THE MOST RAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN TO BE HAD. THE GFS
FOCUSES THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG THE COAST WHEREAS THE WRF HAS A MUCH
MORE EVEN DISTRIBUTION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF A BLEND
OF THE TWO AS WELL AS SEEMINGLY THE WETTEST AT LEAST OVER THE ILM
CWA. SO WHILE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAINFALL FORECAST ARE TOUGH
TO RULE OUT THE CURRENT EVENT TOTAL WILL RANGE FROM A HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH DARLINGTON/MARLBORO TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH TO ONE INCH ROUGHLY ALONG I-95 BORDERING COUNTIES TO 1-1.5
INCHES COASTAL COUNTIES, AND LIKELY 2 INCHES AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, MAINLY IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONGLY
INTO THE WARM SECTOR WE GET MONDAY NIGHT WE MAY SEE A NON-DIURNAL
CURVE IN TEMPS AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS INSTABILITY IS
MAINTAINED.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIP AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING COASTAL LOW/WAVE SHOULD QUICKLY COME
TO AN END AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE REGION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
CEASES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TUE THROUGH THU WITH
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW TUE INTO WED BECOMING AMPLIFIED WED NIGHT
AND THU AHEAD OF STACKED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW
WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED AND THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
ARE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THE FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN
THE EVENING AND THERE MAY BE SOME LIMITED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
AS WELL AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER.
WILL INTRODUCE A SILENT POP THU BUT THINK MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF COLD ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO
TUE-THU WILL DROP BACK NEAR CLIMO FRI...ALTHOUGH HIGHS ARE STILL
LIKELY TO END UP ABOVE CLIMO. SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA MOVES OVER
THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL DROP TEMPS A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMO SAT DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE SOUTHEAST NC AND
NORTHEAST SC COASTS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE
NOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ISOLATED PATCHES
OF -RA LIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL THE MAIN THRUST OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS UNDER N TO NE WINDS AT 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS AOA 25
KT. THESE GUSTY N TO NE WINDS...ONCE THEY COMMENCE...WILL CONTINUE
THRUOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. THE
INLAND TERMINALS KFLO/KLBT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS
IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO MVFR SUNDAY
EVENING DUE TO CEILINGS. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN. GENERALLY VFR
CIGS 4-8K EXPECTED DURING DAYLIGHT SUN. PERIODS OF LIGHT RA MAY
ACCOMPANY THOSE EVENING MVFR CEILINGS SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR MONDAY INTO TUE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM SATURDAY...THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS STEADILY ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. AT 10 PM IT IS SITUATED
ALONG A LINE FROM CAROLINA BEACH THROUGH HOLDEN BEACH...THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST INLAND FROM MYRTLE BEACH. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHERLY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BUT THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
HOURS STILL BEFORE THE SURGE OF MUCH STRONGER WIND ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. ANALYSIS OF UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE HAMPTON ROADS
AREA OF VIRGINIA AND THE NC OUTER BANKS SHOWS MODELS ARE DOING A
PRETTY GOOD JOB WITH WIND SPEEDS...GIVING US AT LEAST SOME SHORT-
TERM CONFIDENCE THAT SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS WILL NOT OCCUR OVER
THE NC/SC COASTAL WATERS. GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY 2-3 FEET BUT SHOULD BUILD VERY RAPIDLY AFTER
THE ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS IN A FEW HOURS. MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE
CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT TO GO DOWNHILL IN A HURRY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LONG FUSED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE AS
NASTY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINES.
SUNDAY`S STRONG GRADIENT A RESULT OF 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE PAIRED WITH SHALLOW
MIXING THEY WILL LIKELY NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE
WATCH. ON MONDAY THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY WILL BACK UP TO THE COAST IF
NOT MOVE JUST INLAND. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN TO ONSHORE. HOW
FAR INLAND THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ITS
RAMIFICATIONS TO THE WIND AND WAVES FORECAST. SHOULD IT REMAIN OVER
THE WATERS THEN CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE IN
THE DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TUE AND WED WILL VEER
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. GRADIENT AT
TIMES ON TUE/WED WILL SUPPORT WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 KT. THIS WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 6 FT AT
TIMES THROUGH WED EVENING. GRADIENT WEAKENS WED NIGHT INTO THU AS
WINDS VEER TO SOUTHERLY. SPEEDS DROP UNDER 10 KT WED NIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE THU MORNING. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 15
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT WITH DIRECTION BECOMING MORE
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN DIRECTION
WILL PRODUCE SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT WED NIGHT AND THU.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/MRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

516 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 22 UTC. STILL ANTICIPATING AS DEPICTED BY
THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS THE STRATUS BANK ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA TO PROPAGATE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN THE ND
HIGHWAY 200 AND I-94 CORRIDORS BY 12 UTC. WITH STRATUS BUILD
DOWN...FOG IS EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ABOVE THE STRATUS.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NORTHWEST WHERE SURFACE
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH FREEZING LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WARM ROADS MAY LIMIT THE THREAT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS INVOLVE CLOUDS AND FOG, MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURES. AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL FINALLY
BE MOVING INLAND MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW SURFACE CANADIAN AIR TO
INFILTRATE THE REGION BRINGING A SHALLOW LAYER OF COOL
TEMPERATURES THAT MAY SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY. MUCH COOLER FOR TUESDAY AS WE RETURN TO
THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WITH HIGHS
STILL IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. VERY
MODEST POPS ARE CALLED FRO TUESDAY AS THE MAJORITY OF THE BETTER
FORCING REMAINS WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER EXPECT THE
ABOVE MENTIONED FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTHWEST WHERE LOW LEVEL
SATURATION IS TOPPED BY DRY AIR IN A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT
GIVING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME MORNING FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO
LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
QUIETER WEATHER PERIOD FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

NORTHERN STREAM S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW OR
ALL SNOW ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY/MID
NOVEMBER. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM ONE HALF UP TO ONE INCH
POSSIBLE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL TUESDAY NIGHT-WED MORNING.

BRIEF S/WV RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV/CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. STRONG CAA AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WILL SEE STRONG
WIND MAGNITUDES FOR THURSDAY. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE PEAK GUST
POTENTIAL. 12Z GFS STILL SUPPORTS HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA...WITH OTHER MODELS MORE OF ADVISORY STRENGTH. OPTED TO
KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT`S MID SHIFT AS IS FOR
AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST ISSUANCE...WHICH LEANS ON THE STRONGER
SIDE FOR WIND SPEEDS. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHEST QPF OR SNOW AMOUNTS FORECAST ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST. 0.5" TO 1" OF SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. WILL KEEP CURRENT HWO WORDING MENTIONING STRONG
WINDS AND POSSIBLE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 40S AND
50S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE AND/OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KISN AND KMOT AROUND 07-08
UTC TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY KBIS AND KDIK BY 12-14 UTC TUESDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

500 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT S/SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MID CLOUDS POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OK WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25KTS. OTHER THAN A FEW
DAYTIME CU... SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO VERY STRONG WIND...POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ARE MAIN CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WILL OCCUR. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE TRICKY
DUE TO INCREASING SOUTH WIND AND SKY COVER. SOME MODELS INCLUDING
THE LATEST HRRR HINT THERE MAY BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO LOW TONIGHT. FOR
NOW...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE
CURRENTLY FORECAST LOWS COULD BE TOO WARM. COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE FROST FORMATION.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY. SOUTH WIND WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD BE THE MORE HUMID
DAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT TRICKY DUE TO CLOUD COVER WHICH
MODELS SEEM TO NOT BE HANDLING WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A POTENT FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION BRINGING SOME
WEATHER HAZARDS.

IN REGARDS TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE SEEMS TO BE RATHER HIGH AS WIND ADVISORIES WILL VERY
LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 40 TO 55 MPH
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY
BE NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
APPROACHING 40 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AS CAPPING
MAY BE STRONG AND INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN TOO LOW FOR MUCH...IF
ANY...STORM FORMATION...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. VERY STRONG
SHEAR AND FORCING FAVOR POSSIBLE MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS IF
STORMS CAN FORM. LOCATIONS EAST OF I-35 CERTAINLY APPEAR TO HAVE
THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY
BE THE MAIN HAZARD IF STORM FORM.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG WIND MOVE INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC AND POLAR COLD FRONTS. THE STRONGEST
WIND WILL LIKELY STAY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHILE THE LOWEST
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STAY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER ARE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES MAY
BE NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
THE AIRMASS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SYSTEM BY SUNDAY.

MBS

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 41 64 49 70 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 41 64 50 71 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 42 66 51 73 / 10 0 0 10
GAGE OK 38 65 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 37 64 48 71 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 40 64 49 71 / 0 0 0 10

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

236 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO VERY STRONG WIND...POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ARE MAIN CONCERNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A POTENT FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION BRINGING SOME
WEATHER HAZARDS.

MBS

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1003 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
IN SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF THE REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE NW EDGE OF GENERALLY SHALLOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAS PUSHED NWWD
ACROSS MUCH OF WARREN COUNTY THIS EVENING...WHILE A THICKER DUAL
TO MULTI-LAYER OF STRATUS AND CIRRO/ALTO-STRATUS BLANKETED MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND ERN PENN.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWING THAT THE NRN EDGE OF STEADIER
LIGHT TO MDT RAIN FALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE WAS
HAVING A TOUGH TIME PUSHING NORTH IN THE MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
/WITH A SHARP 700 MB THETA-E GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RT 322/22
CORRIDOR AND THE PENN TURNPIKE IN FAR SRN PA/.

LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN /INCLUDING THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ WILL
SEE JUST SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO THAT.

GREATLY TRIMMED BACK POPS AND QPF UNTIL 10Z TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD...LIGHT TO MDT RAIN SHOULD ADVANCE STEADILY NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION AS A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER
UVVEL.

RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE AREA NEAR AND TO THE SE OF INTERSTATE
81 /AND POINTS WEST ALONG INTERSTATE 70/ SEES UP TO ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE L-M 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS OVERNIGHT...AND IN THE U 40S TO L50S ELSEWHERE. THESE READING
COULD EVEN RISE A FEW DEG F IN SOME LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOWEST PRESSURE STARTS TO CONGREGATE ON THE OHIO RIVER BUT
FILLS IN AS A SECONDARY LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE DELMARVA AND
MOVES QUICKLY UP TO LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD. THIS ACTION MIGHT
PULL THE HIGHEST MOISTURE TO THE EAST...BUT PWATS REMAIN EXTREMELY
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE CWA...ESP IN THE WEST...WHERE 1.3 INCH PWATS
WILL RESIDE TUES AM. IN THE GFS-EC SCENARIO...MUCH MORE RAIN FALLS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THAN THE EAST. WILL HANG OUR HAT
ON THAT BUT HEDGE SOME IN THE EAST.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE HIGH MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY CLOG UP
THE LOWER ATMOS WITH LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WON/T RISE MUCH.
NAM/GFS/EC ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SLUG OF RAIN WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA TUES NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD BE WELL OFF TO THE EAST BY
WED AM. BUT TYPICAL WRAP AROUND FLOW AND HIGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL MEAN SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP/DZ ON WED MORNING IN THE N/W.

QPF FROM THAT MAIN AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL RUN
BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.25 INCHES. ONLY MINOR /10F/ DIURNAL SWING ARE
EXPECTED TUES NIGHT AND WED.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM KANSAS TO MICHIGAN
WED INTO THU...BRINGING A BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY ON THU. OVER PA...RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ON WED AND CEDES
TO EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WED NIGHT. 850MB FLOW WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON WED NIGHT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN PA. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE WED NIGHT WILL BE TO OUR WEST WITH WARM
FRONT LIFTING THROUGH...BUT WITH INCREASED WAA KICKING IN COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS SLIP INTO WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE EVENING.

MODELS STILL LOOK TO BRING COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH PA ON
THURSDAY. WITH THE FRONT...EXPECT A PERIOD SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING INTO SAT /ESP ALONG AND NEAR THE
RIDGES/ AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY BEHIND
A SECOND QUITE POTENT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY DROPPING OUT OF W CANADA
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY ROLLS THROUGH.

FLOW TURNS FROM W TO WNW FOR FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE NW MTNS ALONG WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION /ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH NOTABLE MODEL DIFFS BY DAY
7/.

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD LOWERING CIGS
AND RAIN NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS ALREADY
NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AT 00Z AND LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT KJST THIS EVENING...THEN DEVELOP
OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
DETERIORATING VSBYS/CIGS...EXPECT MARGINAL LLWS TO BE MET TUE AM
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL PA...AS A CORE OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE
OVER THE AREA.

RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY...AS THE LOW PRES CENTER PASSES ACROSS THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE THREAT OF LLWS WILL DIMINISH
BY TUE AFTN...AS WEAKENING LOW LVL JET LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS RISE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
PA TUE EVENING...AS THE LOW PASSES OFF THE MID ATL COAST.
HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS
IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN IFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST INTO TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSSIBLE KBFD/KJST.

THU...MVFR LIKELY WITH FROPA/SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS.

FRI...GUSTY WINDS POSS.

SAT...GUSTY WINDS POSS. AM SHSN/REDUCED CIGS POSS AT KBFD.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

917 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWS A MORE AGGRESSIVE RETURN OF
MOISTURE AND LOW. THE INCREASES IN DEW POINTS COULD SUGGEST SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT WOULD PREFER TO SEE SOME
LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR BEFORE MAKING THIS CHANGE. MIN TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES TO KEEP WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND THE RAP MODEL.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SAT/SSF/AUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
CLOUD DECK AROUND 4KFT MOVES OVERHEAD. DECKS OUT AT DRT ARE AT
CURRENTLY MVFR. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT OVERRUNNING TONIGHT
ALONG THE 300 AND 295K SURFACES. THIS TREND IS KEEPING MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR INTO THE SITES BY MORNING. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS NOT TREMENDOUS THAT WE WILL GET IFR...DONT HAVE ENOUGH TO
TOTALLY PULL IT FROM THE TAFS. DOES APPEAR THAT THE MFVR WILL
OCCUR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BASED ON THE SE WIND. DOESNT LOOK LIKE
THERE WILL BE MUCH SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT
MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT MVFR
THROUGH TUE WITH EVEN A BETTER CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IS RESULTING IN CLOUDY
SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THAT AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE DAY TIME HOURS COMES TO AN END...DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS UP TO 850MB
(ISENTROPIC LIFT)WILL HELP FOR LIGHT RAINSHOWERS TO FORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
ALSO...WITH MOIST AIR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 90...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AROUND DAY BREAK THROUGH
MID MORNING ON TUESDAY. THEN...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH TUEDSAY`S
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY. SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO FEW
HUNDREDTHS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST WHILE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED TIME
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INTERSTATE 35 IS AROUND
NOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH QUICKLY FROM OUR AREA AND TO THE
EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
AREAS...BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE IN THE EVENING.

COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TO LOWER 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY
QUIET WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
FOR CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN OVER THAT
REGION.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 60 75 68 80 50 / - 10 20 30 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 61 75 68 80 49 / - 10 20 30 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 78 68 82 50 / - 10 20 30 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 58 72 65 77 46 / - 10 20 30 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 77 65 78 48 / - 10 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 74 67 78 47 / - 10 20 30 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 63 76 67 82 48 / 10 20 20 20 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 76 67 81 49 / - 10 20 30 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 57 77 69 81 51 / - - 10 40 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 63 77 69 82 51 / - 10 20 30 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 78 69 83 52 / 10 10 20 20 -

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1121 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

.AVIATION...
STRATUS DECK REMAINS OVER MUCH OF SE TX ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT FROM KCLL TO KUTS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE GIVING WAY TO
VFR FOR KCLL/KUTS LATER THIS MORNING. REST OF THE TERMINALS ARE
SOCKED IN WITH IFR/MVFR DECKS AND DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BEGIN TO IMPROVE 10-14Z.
BASED ON HRRR TRENDS AND BUFR NAM SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR CLOSER TO 16-18Z. WINDS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN RAIN AREA WAS EXITING TO THE EAST AT MID EVENING.
HOWEVER...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WAS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FORECASTING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS...ALSO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE NEXT AREA BY 01Z.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBS SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FOR
KGLS AND KLBX. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL
NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THAT WITH 00Z GUIDANCE COMING OUT IN TIME FOR
THE 06Z TAFS. POSSIBLE THAT CIGS COULD BREAK OUT EARLIER THAN
INDICATED IN THE TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EXPECT THE MODERATE TO LIGHT RAIN TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE THE RAIN CHC END LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING OUT THERE...SO EXPECT ALL THE PRECIP TO BE
SHWRS THIS EVENING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AREAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT ALL THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS
WINDY ALONG THE COAST AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...LIKELY SUBSIDING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY MORNING.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS WILL BEGIN
RETURNING ON TUESDAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
AND INTO WED MORNING. THE NEXT MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHC
OF SHRA/TSTMS ON WED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OF
THE COAST WED EVE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THU AND FRI BEHIND THE
FRONT...THEN MOISTURE RETURNING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. SO WE WILL
REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANGEABLE
SENSIBLE WEATHER. 33

MARINE...

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS... WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
FLOWING OVER THE WARMER COASTAL WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE /35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS/ TO MIX DOWN TONIGHT AND HAVE
UPGRADED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TO A GALE
WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. ELEVATED WINDS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS... WITH WAVES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
APPROACHING 9 FEET TONIGHT. LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING... BUT THE MAIN HAZARD FOR
MARINERS WILL CERTAINLY BE THE INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES... WITH OFFSHORE WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK... BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

HUFFMAN

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 53 65 49 70 57 / 10 10 0 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 55 67 50 73 59 / 20 10 0 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 68 59 70 67 / 20 10 0 10 10

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

1045 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

.AVIATION...CIGS ARE VARYING FROM 8HFT TO 18HFT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF S TX THIS EVENING. AM EXPECTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND PATCHY
DZ/-RA AT TIMES THROUGH 10Z. FCST SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CIGS AND LESS PRECIP TOWARD 12Z SUN MORNING AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TRIES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NE. THIS TREND IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN WITH VFR CIGS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR VCT...AND LATER AFTERNOON ALI AND CRP.
GUIDANCE PROGS MVFR CIGS...AND POSSIBLY DZ...TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LRD AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WX AND POPS FOR TONIGHT
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. LOWERED THIS EVENINGS POPS TO 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE W TO 10 PERCENT NE WITH A MENTION OF PATCHY -DZ/BR WITH
THE 10 POP. STILL EXPECT BEST CHC FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE
W DUE TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
NEARING THE AREA...BUT JUST NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH AREAL COVERAGE
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. ALSO CHANGED WORDING FROM SHRA TO -RA FOR
THE W CWA. AS FOR PATCHY DZ/BR ACROSS THE NE...DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DESPITE FCST SOUNDINGS PROGGING A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE. BASED ON MSAS
ANALYSIS/RADAR/OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE
TO THE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...LATEST OBS ARE REPORTING LIGHT FOG AROUND VCT AND
FARTHER NE. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WITH THE
DZ. THE FCST SOUNDING FOR THE NE CWA OVERNIGHT SHOWS A SLIGHT
DRYING AND MODELS PROG DEWPOINTS TO LOWER...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ENOUGH DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE
BEFORE 12Z SUN TO END THE PATCHY DZ/BR. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND THE MENTION OF PATCHY DZ/BR THROUGH EARLY SUN
MORNING. REST OF FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGHER POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE W CWA DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND A WEAK SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA PER WV SATELLITE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER TODAY. RESIDUAL -RA WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF S TX MUCH OF TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCT BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IMPROVING FROM NE TO S AND SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF S TX SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL
TROUGH/LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NE MX COAST AND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE HEADING INTO
TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL OCCUR. DESPITE
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SFC TO H85...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN STILL
REMAINS UNSEASONABLY MOIST /PWAT VALUES THIS MORNING WERE 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/. MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 300K LAYER IS PROG TO OCCUR ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...A MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN COAHUILA MX AND SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING. COMBINATION OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THE DPVA...AND A
H25 JET OVERHEAD...SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THE 18Z NAM...12ZGFS/GEM/TTU
WRF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS OUTPUT WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF AND SOME RUNS OF THE RAP BRING DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FARTHER SOUTH AND THUS KEEP THE CWA MAINLY DRY TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF THE LATTER OCCURRING...HAVE GONE WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN CWA RATHER THAN THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES. NE COUNTIES WILL HAVE LOWEST
POTENTIAL OF SEEING ADDITIONAL PRECIP WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL BE THE WEAKEST. ASIDE FROM PRECIP...STRATUS IS PROG TO
THICKEN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW PEAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM PORT ARANSAS TO SEADRIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD NOT FALL TOO MUCH FROM CURRENT TEMPS...THOUGH IF
ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THEN
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP MAY KNOCK
TEMPS BELOW CURRENTLY FORECAST MINS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN
CWA...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. DESPITE A RATHER POTENT
H5 S/W TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS AND A STRONGER H25 JET NOSING INTO
THE AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PROG TO BE MUCH DRIER TOMORROW AND
THUS ONLY EXPECTING CLOUD COVER FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING MAY TRY TO OCCUR BY LATE IN THE DAY SUN WITH
MAX TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER OR NOT ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT /ESPECIALLY NE
COUNTIES/ BEFORE LLVL MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE ECMWF/GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WL ENTER THE WEST COAST BY
MONDAY AND THE SWRN CONUS TUESDAY...THEN ACRS TEXAS/SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA. EXPECT
ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE DRG THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM. GFS DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS PWAT
VALUES OVER THE CWA/MSA TO INCREASE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MSTR/UPPER DYNAMICS/ SFC FRONT WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY. DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS THE FOREGOING UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ANTICIPATED AFTER FROPA OVER THE MSA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A COASTAL
TROUGH FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC PLACES THE
CWA/MSA NEAR THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. FURTHER...THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC)
INCREASES MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WL FCST ISOLD
SHOWER ACTIVITY (THE GFS DETERMINISTIC MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT
CIN/POSITIVE LI VALUES) FRIDAY/SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY OVER THE
CWA/MSA.

MARINE...STRONG TO VERY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREA BAYS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND NEAR/OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY SUN. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY DRY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 61 70 58 75 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 57 68 50 73 61 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 57 66 57 74 65 / 30 20 10 10 10
ALICE 60 69 55 76 63 / 20 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 61 69 57 73 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 57 66 55 72 61 / 20 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 62 69 56 75 64 / 20 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 63 70 60 73 69 / 20 10 10 10 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

TE/81...AVIATION

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

1010 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AROUND 15Z FOR ALL SITES WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 TO 30KTS. THEN AROUND 00Z THE WINDS WILL CALM TO 15KTS OR
LESS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA...JUST SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT TIMES BUT CEILINGS WILL BE WELL ABOVE MVFR HEIGHTS.

BEAT

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT
SOME CLOUDS TO COME INTO KAMA AND KDHT AROUND 07Z TO 10Z BUT NOT
EXPECTING THESE TO DROP CONDITIONS INTO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE UNDER
10KTS FOR ALL SITES UNTIL 15Z WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP AND
GUST TO 25 TO 30KTS.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS
COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NAM 850 MB TEMPS 12Z TODAY AROUND 5
DEGREES CELSIUS AT AMARILLO OR 41 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WITH A MIN
TEMPS THIS MORNING OF 34 DEGREES. NAM 850 MB TEMP 12Z SUNDAY OF 4
DEGREES CELSIUS OR 39 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...WITH PROJECTED MIN TEMP
SUNDAY MORNING OF 32 DEGREES. DID HAVE SOME LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WHICH HELPED TO KEEP MIN TEMPS A BIT WARMER THIS
MORNING. CAVEAT WILL BE ANY POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER HRRR NOT FORECASTING ANY LOW CLOUDS OR ANY OTHER
CLOUDS BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z SUNDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. NAM AND GFS ALSO KEEPING
SKIES CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. PROVIDED THAT CLOUDS
DO NOT DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...EXPECTING MIN TEMPS SUNDAY
MORNING TO BE NEAR 32 DEGREES OR SO FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THEN FROM SHERMAN COUNTY SOUTH TO RANDALL
COUNTY WITH MAINLY 33 TO 36 DEGREES SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE.
THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALSO TEMPS TODAY SOME 3 TO 7
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH DEW POINT TEMPS
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE VERY SHALLOW AND SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO DROP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
NEXT TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE
PANHANDLES...THEREFORE FEEL DRY BUT WINDY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GFS AND DOES CLIP THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
BRIEF WRAP AROUND PRECIP. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
COULD POSSIBLY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
FORECAST NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING SHARPLY
COLDER BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
ROBERTS...WHEELER.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BEAVER...TEXAS.

16/8

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1246 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

OTHERWISE...SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO HOURLY POPS
WHILE REMAINING GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

IFR...LIFR...AND POSSIBLY VLIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. JKL WILL BE THE
MOSTLY LIKELY SITE TO EXPERIENCE ANY VLIFR CIGS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD AFFECT
JKL...SYM...AND SJS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WELL. THE TAF
SITES WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE VARYING DEGREES OF FOG THROUGH OUT THE
NIGHT...WITH JKL AND ITS RIDGETOP LOCATION LIKELY SEEING THE WORST
OF THE FOG. THE OTHER FOUR AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS
IN THE FOG FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA
BY 17Z TODAY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING A
BIT AS THE SUN COMES UP WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 13 OR 14Z AT ALL
TAF SITES...AND MVFR CIGS FROM 15Z ONWARD. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
OVC OR BKN UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...DURING WHICH TIME THE
CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1228 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 931 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 317 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015

Othwerise, Tuesday will be dry with clearing skies from west to east
and temperatures reaching into the low 60s in most spots. Expect
upper 50s in the east where clouds hang on the longest.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 317 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Wed Night...

Wednesday - Wednesday Night...

Timing of between 8 PM to 3 AM EST still looks pretty good for the
bulk of the event. Western areas can expect the earlier part of the
time frame, with the east getting in on the action later.

Thursday - Monday...

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1225 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2015

Flight conditions will linger in the IFR/LIFR cat through the
overnight hours and into tomorrow morning as an upper low slowly
moves NE through the region. Flight conditions will improve to VFR
by this afternoon/evening. Light northerly winds currently will
become westerly by around sunrise with wind speeds less than 7 kts
throughout the TAF period.

SDF...currently sits at IFR/MVFR and suspect some of the LIFR cigs
to the south may eventually occur at SDF by sunrise especially as
the inversion strengthens during the pre-dawn hours behind the upper
low. By mid morning conditions should improve to MVFR and then VFR
by early afternoon.

LEX...currently sits at MVFR but expect cigs to deteriorate over the
next 1-3 hours to IFR and then possibly to LIFR between 9-12Z. MVFR
cigs won`t be reached until early afternoon with VFR expected by
this evening.

BWG...currently is hovering between IFR/LIFR. Expect cigs will tend
to side more on the LIFR side as the night wears on. There is a
clearing line slowly making progress toward BWG early this morning
and suspect it might make it to the terminal by around 12Z. This
could result in a scattering of cigs and quick development of fog
right around sunrise. Right now, sided the TAF closer to cig
restrictions but will need to monitor eastward progress of the
clearing and adjust vis/cigs as needed. BWG should return to VFR by
around Noon.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........13
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......AMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

414 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES AND A TROF DIGGING INTO
THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS UPPER MI BUT WAA HIGH CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO
SPILL ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TROF.

TODAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WITH
CONTINUED SRLY FLOW TEMPS WILL AGAIN PUSH WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER
WITH FCST 925-900 MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY AND A FEW MORE
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT MAX READINGS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S READINGS
POSSIBLE FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50-55 RANGE OVER THE SE.

TONIGHT...UNDER LIGHT SW WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND LAYER PWATS OF
.25 INCH OR LESS EXPECT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
TO FALL TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE (MID 20S) FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP MINS A BIT
WARMER THERE...GENERALLY THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

FOCUS REMAINS ON WED-FRI NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME
PERIOD. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WED WHILE BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED. BY 12Z
THU...THE LOW WILL BE NEAR MENOMINEE WITH THE SFC LOW AT 982-985MB.
THE LOW MOVES TO NRN LOWER MI BY 18Z THU THEN TO WRN QUEBEC BY 06Z
FRI WHILE FILLING SOME. A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME
RELATIVELY MINOR MODEL TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
BACK TO A STRONGER SOLUTION FOR THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH ALSO RESULTS
IN A COLDER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN 24
HOURS AGO. A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AT 12Z SAT...BUT HAVE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT POINT SO WILL LET CONSENSUS GUIDANCE POPULATE
FARTHER OUT.

WINDS...SHOULD SEE THREE PRIMARY PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS. FIRST
WILL BE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS CYCLONIC WINDS ARC ACROSS THE
AREA...PRODUCING SE WINDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NW WINDS
OVER THE WRN HALF...GUSTING TO AROUND 35KTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES IN
BOTH CASES. THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL SEE AROUND 30KT GUSTS OUT OF
THE W-NW AS THE LOW SHIFTS E. A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UNDER THE
SHORTWAVE AND WITH THE COLDER AIR FRI MORNING WILL USHER IN THE
STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 35-40KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FRI AND
FRI EVENING. COULD ALSO SEE GUSTS AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
EXPOSED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
REFERENCE TO THAT IN THE HWO.

PRECIP...RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE ON WED AND WILL BE
HEAVIEST WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WHEN 0.75-1.50 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST W AND LOWEST E. COULD ALSO SEE SOME THUNDER
DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO SNOW OR MOSTLY
SNOW FROM W TO E LATE THU THROUGH FRI. MAIN SNOW CONCERN IS LATE THU
INTO FRI MORNING OVER WRN UPPER MI. WITH MODELS TRENDING COLDER WITH
THE AIRMASS AND STRONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WILL INCREASE QPF/SNOW
THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS WELL. HAVE GENERALLY 0.60-0.70 INCHES OF
QPF THAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR
AND THE NWRN HURON MOUNTAINS. EVEN WITH SFC TEMPS STAYING ABOVE
FREEZING...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE NW SNOWBELTS OF WRN UPPER MI. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW
IN THE HWO FOR THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FRI
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT AS SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS LOST AND SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN FROM THE W.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

SRLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE
WITH E TO NE GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...NW GALES ARE EXPECTED LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND
BACK TO THE SW AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WRN LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

358 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEFINED CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR/THETA-E ADVECTION NOW
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW LIFTING
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS PROCESS PROVIDING THE NECESSARY ASCENT
AND INCREASE IN SATURATION TO MAINTAIN POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. SE MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY POSITIONING AS
THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIVOT POINT OF THE EFFECTIVE TROWAL LIKE
FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE 700-500 MB CIRCULATION AS IT TREKS
ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BACK
INTO THE THUMB REGION AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS. THIS EVOLUTION WILL
SUSTAIN A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR CONTINUED SHOWER PRODUCTION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. THE LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS
ENVIRONMENT POINTS TO A VERY SLOW EASTWARD RELEASE OF THE INBOUND
THETA-E PLUME...SUGGESTING SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. BLANKET OF THICK MID CLOUD
LOCKED IN THROUGH THE DAY COMBINED WITH THE SHOWERS WILL RESTRICT
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE TODAY. CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S RANGE.

SLOW WEST TO EAST CLEARING PROCESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TAKES HOLD. A PERIOD OF OPEN SKY AND
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE WILL FAVOR A GREATER
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESPONSE. LOWS LARGELY WITHIN THE RANGE OF LOWER
AND MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...

A REASONABLY LAX GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY WILL EVOLVE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY INTO A LEGIT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A DOWNSTREAM
RESPONSE TO THE LOW DEEPENING EVENT OCCURRING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE IS PERHAPS
A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER WITH THE START OF MEANINGFUL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. STILL HOLDING ONTO TO A
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH SUNSHINE THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE DAY AND SURFACE WIND TRAJECTORIES THAT WILL BE HOLDING DUE
SOUTHERLY. THIS COULD PROVE TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC OF A FORECAST IF
OPAQUE HIGH CLOUD ARRIVES EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.

A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL INVOKE A CYCLOGENESIS EVENT OUT IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/KANSAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS
FORECASTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO APPROXIMATELY 984 MB AS IT LIFTS
INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH
UNTIL IT ENTERS NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT REMAINS WIND
POTENTIAL. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE
DOUBLE COLD FRONT STRUCTURE TO WORK THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
THE FIRST SOMETIME AROUND 11-13Z THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE SECOND
VERY VERY QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST...SOMETIME AROUND 14-16Z.
MIDLEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND ISENTROPIC FCST ANALSYES SUPPORT THAT
DESPITE WHAT MIGHT LOOK LIKE A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM AT FIRST
GLANCE...THE LOW TO MIDLEVEL OCCLUSION DOES NOT REALLY HAPPEN UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF SE MICHIGAN. THIS
SIGNIFIES QUALITATIVELY THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESH AND ACTIVE
SUBSIDENCE DOWN INTO THE SURFACE LAYER REMAINS IN PLAY. OVERALL...A
VERY GOOD TRAJECTORY OF SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW EXISTS DOWN THE 284 K
SURFACE. ORIGIN OF THE PARCELS OFF OF THE 284K SURFACE IS AT
APPROXIMATELY 830-840 MB WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS BETWEEN 45-50 KNOTS. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SURE ARE SOME INTERESTING ONES AFTER THE SECOND CAA SURGE..CREATING
CAPE DENSITY IN THE 800-900 MB LAYER. LOW TOPPED CONVECTION REMAINS
PLAUSIBLE AS WELL. GIVEN THIS STRONG MIX OF SUPPORT FOR HIGH
IMPACT WINDS ON THURSDAY...FUTURE WIND HEADLINES REMAIN LIKELY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT ENERGY FROM A ROSSBY WAVE BREAK
OVER THE PACNW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD AND LATCH ONTO THE CYCLONIC
ENTRANCE QUADRANT OF THE SAME UPPER LEVEL JET CORE THAT PRODUCED THE
FIRST SYSTEM. PRETTY REMARKABLE TO SEE THIS SORT OF CLEAN PHASING
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS TRAILING LOW. THERE ARE TWO LARGE
IMPACTS FROM THIS TRAILING WAVE...1. THE AMOUNT OF MIDLEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM 0C THURSDAY TO -6C
FRIDAY. THIS COLD AIR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX ON FRIDAY. 2. DEEP MIXING BROUGHT ON BY THIS
COLD AIR AND ANOTHER DAY OF WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS FRIDAY LOOK
LIKE THEY COULD REDEVELOP IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE.

.MARINE...

A BENIGN WIND FIELD WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAKENING
SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY RELINQUISHES CONTROL. THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL
THEN BECOME VERY ACTIVE AS A POWERFUL NOVEMBER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO LIFT INTO WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THROUGH
THE STRAITS REGION ON THURSDAY. THE IMPENDING STORM SYSTEM WILL
SUPPORT GALES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GALE WATCHES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE WATERS. A SECOND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION QUICK ON THE
HEELS OF THE PRIMARY STORM SYSTEM. THE ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL
MAINTAIN THE GALES OVER LAKE HURON ON FRIDAY.

WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECASTED
TO TRACK DIRECTLY OVER THE STRAITS REGION AND PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TYPE OF SCENARIOS PRESENT
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHALLENGES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO COMMUNICATE IN
THE MARINE FORECASTS. EXPECT WIND DIRECTIONS AND WIND SPEEDS TO
CHANGE ABRUPTLY AND WITHOUT MUCH NOTICE ON THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 116 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

AS A LOW COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA, FOCUS OF
ATTENTION REMAINS ON AREA OF GATHERING RADAR RETURNS OVER SOUTHWEST
AND WEST-CENTRAL OHIO. THIS AREA OF FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN
TO THE AIRFIELDS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A PROBABLE REDUCTION
TO MVFR MAINLY 09-15Z...ALTHOUGH LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT
AT A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER PERSISTING FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. THEREFORE,
HAVE EXTENDED A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS INTO THE EARLY AFTN. -RA WILL
TAPER OFF IN THE EARLY AFTN WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TO TAKE ITS TIME
WORKING IN FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AXIS IS SLOW TO DEPART.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 08Z.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LHZ363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LEZ444.

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....JVC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

324 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015