Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/09/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
906 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.EVENING UPDATE...
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT ATTM COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY AND EVEN
EARLIER IN THE EVENING WHEN WE HAD FREQUENT OFFSHORE GUSTS OF 4O TO
45 MPH. HOWEVER GRADIENTS REMAIN MODERATE OFFSHORE AND BELIEVE THIS
IS JUST A DIURNAL LULL...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE
LIKELY AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN
THE MOST FAVORED OFFSHORE LOCATIONS SUCH AS SILL HILL AND FREMONT
CANYON. MEANWHILE IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATION MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN THE DESERTS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
CHILLY AS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES FELL TO AROUND
FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE HIGH DESERT.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
TROUGH...THIS ONE MORE OF AN INSIDE SLIDER...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION THIS FAR SOUTH. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS DUE
TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE
ANOTHER SOLID WIND ADVISORY EVENT FOR THE ONSHORE FAVORED LOCATIONS
THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAINS...PASSES AND CANYONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND CONTINUED WARMER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN
THE RIDGES...PASSES...CANYONS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 MPH IN THOSE AREAS.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...COOLER AGAIN WITH A RETURN OF
NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO THE COAST...VALLEYS AND
COASTAL SLOPES AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION. WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW WITH CONTINUED WARMING FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 1256 PM PST)...FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN
RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NOT
EVEN A HINT OF ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF IT FAR OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE 7.8
MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...WHEREAS THEY WERE 2.6 MB AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FAVORED RIDGES...PASSES...CANYONS
AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS REPORTING NORTHEAST TO EAST GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THESE STRONGER GUSTS AS
OPPOSED TO THE LOCAL WRF. CONSIDERING THE STRONGER WINDS THAN
ANTICIPATED...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL FOOTHILL
AND PASS/CANYON LOCATIONS. THESE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AND STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT FURTHER LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND WEAK RIDGE ALOFT IS RESULTING IN WARMING
TODAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE WARMING TRENDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THAT DAY.
THE STILL RELATIVELY COLD AIR MASS...WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES RESULTED IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE HIGH DESERTS
THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING BELOW FREEZING
IN SEVERAL SPOTS. HOWEVER...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
INCREASE BY A FEW DEG C BY TONIGHT...SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN THE HIGH DESERTS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A COOLING TREND AND THE
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER. DEEP MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL...VALLEY AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...THE MORNING STRATUS IS
UNLIKELY TO CLEAR MUCH...IF AT ALL...AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION.
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN...AND THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS THAN THE WINDS WE ARE CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW
CLOUDS. HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
WARMING TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
070400Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT.
NORTHEAST SANTA ANA WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 20-30 KT WILL SURFACE
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS AT TIMES THROUGH SAT MORNING.
HOWEVER...WINDS ABOVE 20 KT ARE UNLIKELY AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES...INCLUDING KONT.
&&
.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CA WILL BRING
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT...HIGH ENOUGH TO BE
A HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. COMBINED SEAS OF 6-10 FEET ARE LIKELY MON-
TUE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE FAVORED RIDGES...PASSES...CANYONS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH LIKELY. THE
WINDS WILL ALSO BRING DAY-TIME HUMIDITY DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR THE
INLAND AREAS. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AT NIGHT WILL BE POOR TO MODERATE.
HOWEVER...RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS UNLIKELY TO BE MET AND THE
RECENT RAINS SHOULD HAVE INCREASED FUEL MOISTURES ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY
LATE SATURDAY AND TURN ONSHORE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER SANTA ANA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SAN DIEGO FOR OCTOBER WAS 7.7 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. THAT WAS ONLY THE FOURTH MONTH IN THE HISTORY OF
SAN DIEGO WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR A MONTH WAS 7 OR MORE
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
DEPARTURE
FROM AVERAGE MONTH YEAR
+8.2 SEPTEMBER 1984
+7.7 OCTOBER 2015
+7.2 JULY 1984
+7.2 MARCH 2015
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JMB
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE
PREVIOUS/FIRE...HARRISON
CLIMATE...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
502 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2015
PESKY AREA OF STRATUS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE THIS MORNING...WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS ELSEWHERE. WILL KEEP FREEZE
WARNING UP THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE STRATUS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...AND IT APPEARS ALL
BUT PORTIONS OF OTERO AND EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY HAVE NOW SEEN A
HARD FREEZE THIS SEASON. ONCE CLOUDS DISSIPATE BY MID-
MORNING...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RUN NEAR
TO JUST A FEW DEGF COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MOST LOCATIONS...AND SHADED
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER BLENDED/BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
OVERNIGHT...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. OVER THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR
VALLEYS...READINGS SEASONABLY COOL ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2015
MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD IN THE 00Z RUNS WITH THE TRACK OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK DRY AND WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
AS THE UPPER TROF CARVES OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S...AND
CONCERNS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND OR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
CONCEPTUALLY THIS WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE SE MTS/I-25
CORRIDOR ON MONDAY...THOUGH WITH THE LEE TROF PINNED UP ALONG THE
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES AND THE I-25 CORRIDOR...CONDITIONS LOOK
SPOTTY AT THIS POINT ON MONDAY. IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE POSITION
OF THIS LEE TROF. TUESDAY MAY BE THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL START COOLING...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST AS
SNOW STARTS TO IMPACT THE CONTDVD. HOWEVER INCREASING DOWNSLOPE
INTO THE LEE TROF OFTEN LEADS TO MORE LOW LEVEL DRYING THAN MODELS
PORTRAY...AND SUSPECT THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND
RATON RIDGE WOULD BE MOST AT THREAT FOR REALIZING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. AGAIN...TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND MESOSCALE
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT...BUT IT WILL BEAR
WATCHING.
MEANWHILE...THE MTS ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS STORM...AND ITS TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CO ADVERTISED
BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...MAY KEEP AMOUNTS MORE IN THE ADVISORY OR
LOWER THRESHOLD. AS THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP ACROSS EASTERN CO/WRN
KS WED MORNING...BOTH GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF POTENTIAL
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES TUES NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW...BUT AGAIN STORM SYSTEM IS FAST MOVING SUGGESTING A BRIEF 6
HOUR WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS. CURRENT STORM TRACK ALSO RESULTS
IN STRONG DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE WHICH RAPIDLY CUTS BACK
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR POINTS SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE HIGHWAY
50 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE WITH
THESE DETAILS...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL ITERATIONS TO GO BEFORE
THEN...AND THUS THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER FORECAST
CHANGES. MORNING COMMUTES ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE IMPACTED OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND PIKES PEAK REGION BY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
SLUSHY ROADWAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY FOR THE
PLAINS...THOUGH DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...SO EVEN ROAD SURFACES OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE MAY ONLY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF IMPACTS AS THE WARM TEMPERATURES OF LATE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MELTING ON ROAD SURFACES. SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN CO
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FOR MOST AREAS BY
AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TRAILING DISTURBANCE ON THURS/THURS NIGHT. THIS
LATTER ONE STILL APPEARS DRY AT THIS POINT. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2015
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS IN PLACE ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR FROM KMNH TO KRTN AS OF 10Z...WITH IFR CIGS AT KCOS
AND MVFR CIGS AT KPUB. LATEST HRRR SUGGEST SLOW CLEARING THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH MOST LOWER CIGS AND PATCHY FOG DISSIPATING 14Z-16Z.
ONCE STRATUS CLEARS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AND
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ089-093>099.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
644 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY AND
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS ON TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING 140KT UPPER JET...COLD
ADVECTION (STRATO-CUMULUS) AND A WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSING TO THE
S OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MOST MESO/GLOBAL
MODELS INCLUDING HI RES HRRR INDICATE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE
BRUSHED BY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. HAVE
GONE WITH CONSENSUS AND ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS AS SOME AREAS COULD
MEASURE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS THE REAL POST-FRONTAL COOLER AIR
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY RAIN WILL END THIS EVENING WITH UPPER TROUGH/JET SWINGING
THROUGH AND CLEARING SKIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH
WINDS REMAINING HIGH ENOUGH AT MOST LOCATIONS TO PRECLUDE OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND
TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE (MID TO UPPER 40S IN NYC).
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL LEVELS...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT
AND TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS FAR OUTLYING AREAS IF PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELENTS. THINK EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS...SO HAVE INCLUDED IN THE HWO.
A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL EVENTUALLY GET
PICKED UP IN DEEPENING SW FLOW AND APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY/TUE
NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS. BEFORE THEN...BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS MON AND TUE...WITH HIGH TEMPS MODERATING INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.
THEREAFTER...SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF A VIGOROUS WESTERN TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THEN GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK. SOME OF
THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AMOUNT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
WESTERN US TROUGH AND THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE SIMILAR TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. IN TERMS OF LOCAL SENSIBLE WEATHER
THOUGH...PROBABILITY IS INCREASING OF SEEING A PERIOD OF WETTING
RAINS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THU INTO THU NIGHT...BUT TIMING WILL
HAVE TO BE REFINED AS THE THE EVENT NEARS. OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS OF AROUND 5 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED WED
THROUGH FRI WITH EAST COAST RIDING AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NW WINDS THIS MORNING...WITH A SPEED AROUND 10KT THROUGHOUT BY
MID MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY WILL VARY WITHIN +/- 20-30 DEGREES ON
EITHER SIDE OF 310 TRUE. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE PROBABLE
MID FROM MID-EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR CITY AND
COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 AND MAYBE EVEN 30 KT
POSSIBLE THEN AS WELL.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT PROBABLE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
BUOY 44025 HAS FALLEN BELOW 5 FT...THEREFORE WILL ALLOW THE SCA
FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MORICHES INLET TO EXPIRE AT 6AM. 44017
REMAINS AROUND 6 FT SO HAVE MAINTAINED ANZ350 THROUGH 15Z SINCE
THE HIGH SEAS ARE DUE TO A SWELL COMPONENT...WHICH ISN`T ALWAYS
DOMINANT. SINCE WE COULD LOSE THE HIGHER SEAS RATHER QUICKLY ONCE
THE SWELL COMPONENT ABATES HAVE NOT EXTENDED THE ADVISORY YET.
DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO THOUGH. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
RELATIVELY RELAXED OVER THE REGION...SO WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
10 KT OR LESS TODAY...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY INCREASING TO UP TO 15
KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH 25-
30 KT 950 HPA WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL. SO EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30KT ON ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY W LONG ISLAND SOUND. AS A RESULT ISSUED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/EASTERN
SOUND/EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 23Z TONIGHT-17Z SUNDAY. HAVE
ALSO ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS AND NY HARBOR. FOR NOW...ONLY APPEARS WILL BE AT MOST A 6 HR
WINDOW FOR SCA GUSTS ON THE W HARBOR...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE
MARGINAL. SO WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE HERE...HAVE NOT GONE WITH AN
SCA FOR THE W SOUND FOR NOW...LATER SHIFTS COULD ADJUST THIS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 950 HPA WINDS SHOULD DECREASE ENOUGH TO
BRING ALL WATERS TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY LAX OVER THE AREA FROM
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY THAT WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS OVER ALL WATERS
IN THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ338-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24
NEAR TERM...24
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...24/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
402 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY AND
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS ON TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
AT 08Z IT WAS ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH MARKED BY A DROP IN DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 40S. COOLER AIR IS LAGGING A BIT LONGER WITH TEMPS STILL
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE NY METRO AREA. FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE S AND E OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF AN APPROACHING 140KT JET...COLD ADVECTION (STRATO-CU) AND A
WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSING TO THE S OF THE AREA THIS AFTN AND EVE.
THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS MORNING AND TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTN. ALL MESO/GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING HI RES HRRR INDICATE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE BRUSHED BY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD...EXCEPT FOR THE EC. HAVE GONE WITH CONSENSUS AND ADDED LOW
CHC POPS AS SOME AREAS COULD MEASURE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS THE REAL POST-FRONTAL COOLER AIR
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY RAIN WILL END THIS EVENING WITH UPPER TROUGH/JET SWINGING
THROUGH AND CLEARING SKIES. CAA CONTINUES WITH WINDS REMAINING
HIGH ENOUGH AT MOST LOCATIONS TO PRECLUDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 40
ELSEWHERE (MID TO UPPER 40S IN NYC).
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL LEVELS...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT
AND TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS FAR OUTLYING AREAS IF PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELENTS. THINK EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS...SO HAVE INCLUDED IN THE HWO.
A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL EVENTUALLY GET
PICKED UP IN DEEPENING SW FLOW AND APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY/TUE
NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS. BEFORE THEN...BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS MON AND TUE...WITH HIGH TEMPS MODERATING INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.
THEREAFTER...SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF A VIGOROUS WESTERN TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THEN GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK. SOME OF
THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AMOUNT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
WESTERN US TROUGH AND THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE SIMILAR TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. IN TERMS OF LOCAL SENSIBLE WEATHER
THOUGH...PROBABILITY IS INCREASING OF SEEING A PERIOD OF WETTING
RAINS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THU INTO THU NIGHT...BUT TIMING WILL
HAVE TO BE REFINED AS THE THE EVENT NEARS. OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS OF AROUND 5 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED WED
THROUGH FRI WITH EAST COAST RIDING AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...WITH A SPEED AROUND
10KT THROUGHOUT BY MID MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY WILL VARY WITHIN +/-
20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 310 TRUE. WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
PROBABLE TONIGHT FOR CITY AND COASTAL TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT PROBABLE...WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS CONTINUE TO FALL ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. WITH 44065 DOWN
TO 4.6 FT...44025 AT 4.9 FT AND 44017 AT 6.2 FT...HAVE CANCELLED THE
SCA FOR ANZ-355...MAINTAINED AS IS FOR ANZ-353 AND EXTENDED THROUGH
15Z FOR ANZ-350. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY
RELAXED OVER THE REGION...SO WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY INCREASING TO UP TO 15 KT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH 25-
30 KT 950 HPA WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL. SO EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30KT ON ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY W LONG ISLAND SOUND. AS A RESULT ISSUED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/EASTERN
SOUND/EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 23Z TONIGHT-17Z SUNDAY. HAVE
ALSO ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS AND NY HARBOR. FOR NOW...ONLY APPEARS WILL BE AT MOST A 6 HR
WINDOW FOR SCA GUSTS ON THE W HARBOR...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE
MARGINAL. SO WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE HERE...HAVE NOT GONE WITH AN
SCA FOR THE W SOUND FOR NOW...LATER SHIFTS COULD ADJUST THIS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 950 HPA WINDS SHOULD DECREASE ENOUGH TO
BRING ALL WATERS TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY LAX OVER THE AREA FROM
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY THAT WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS OVER ALL WATERS
IN THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ338-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ353.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
734 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
.UPDATE...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A FEW OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF GLADES
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
WORKING INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER GLADES
COUNTY THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME
AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN
6Z AND 12Z TONIGHT ENHANCED FROM AN EAST COAST TROF IN PLACE.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.AVIATION...GP
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED NOV 8 3:46 PM EST /
..VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS WEEK...
SHORT TERM...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WAS ALSO A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WEAK LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT...AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT...AS THE DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE WORKS
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS COULD WORK INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW.
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. NHC IS FORECASTING THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE TO THE WNW/NW THROUGH THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE DRIER AIR
AROUND THE DISTURBANCE. THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT
RANGE ON MONDAY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION WHERE A LOW CHANCE OF POPS IS DEPICTED.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS NHC IS FORECASTING
THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE TO THE N/NE AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA AS THE WINDS
BECOME S/SW. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER
THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON
TUESDAY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGHS FOR ALL OF THE
ASOS SITES, AND CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR THE EAST COAST ASOS
SITES ON TUESDAY. MORE ON THIS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING BACK DRY AIR TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN DEPICTED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO MID-NOVEMBER
NORMALS INSTEAD OF THE NEAR-RECORD WARMTH OF RECENT DAYS.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
SWINGING TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THERE COULD BE A SMALL NORTHERLY SWELL AFFECTING THE PALM BEACH
WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE PALM BEACH SEAS TO INCREASE FROM 2 FEET TONIGHT
TO 4 FEET MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GULF
WATERS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE SUBSIDING MONDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...AS THE WINDS DECREASE IN SPEED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
11/9/15 11/9/15 11/10/15 11/10/15
CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS
PBI 87 89 - 1989 88 88 - 1987
FLL 87 91 - 1958 88 88 - 1987
MIA 88 89 - 1989 89 88 - 2000
APF 89 91 - 1946 85 92 - 1946
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 87 73 88 / 10 20 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 87 74 88 / 10 20 10 20
MIAMI 78 88 75 89 / 10 20 10 20
NAPLES 74 89 74 85 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1032 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE WITH BULK OF
CLOUDS NOW SOUTH OF CWA. REPLACING THE CLOUDS ARE TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE 30S...AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH DROP CWA INTO THE 20S WHICH GOING FORECAST HAS
COVERED WELL. TIGHT T/TD SPREADS ARE ALLOWING PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN EASTERN COLORADO.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE ADDED IN MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG THRU
12Z SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES. IF AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG INCREASES
OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT FOR NOW
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS OUT TO COVER POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND OVER OUR CWA...TO THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
FROM WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AXIS OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAVE RESULTED
IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN THE WEST HAVE
RESULTED IN RAIN/SNOW MIX WHERE MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE SATURATED THE
DRY MIXED LAYER. THE FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...THE HIGHER THE WBZ
HEIGHTS ARE AND LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST...SO I WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE (ROUGHLY AROUND SUNSET). WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING...NAM/SREF STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z
SATURDAY. CONSIDERING FORECAST TEMPS THIS WOULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG
POTENTIAL AND SLICK ROADWAYS. RAP IS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...WITH HRRR
TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH AND FOG SIGNAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE I HAVE DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING FOG MENTION
IN THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...AND WILL ALLOW
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
BUILDING LEE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WAA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AT
LEAST IN THE MID 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE UPPER
50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG FIRST TWO
NIGHTS...WINDS/FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY...AND CHANCE/TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO
A MORE AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW HAS BEEN NOTED
IN THE PACIFIC IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
MODELS WERE STARTING FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS WERE NOT QUITE AMPLIFIED/TOO FAR EAST WITH THE ALASKA SYSTEM
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WAS NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH.
OVERALL THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. THE NAM
AND ECMWF WERE STARTING OUT WELL AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS/CANADIAN
AND THE ECMWF/NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGING AND DRY AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE.
COULD END UP RATHER MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR DUE TO THE WINDS
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM SHOWING FOG
IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. HOWEVER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS THE
NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS. WILL PROBABLY
END BEING A THICK FROST OR DEW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...RETREATING SURFACE HIGH/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH
CREATES A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE PROGGED 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS LOOK TO CREATE
BREEZY AND ESPECIALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. DEWPOINTS TO BE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. AT THIS TIME...THE LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SO WE LOOK SAFE FOR NOW ON FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES.
AGAIN THE NAM LOOKS LIKE IT IS OVERDOING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WITH A CONTINUED DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO WILL ONCE AGAIN END
UP AS FROST OR DEW.
MONDAY...DEEP DRY AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. AT THE SAME TIME A
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING OR BE
NEAR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT WILL PROBABLY
ONLY SEE HIGH CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. JET/LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT GETS STRONGER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO A
DEEP DRY LAYER...IT ONLY LOOKS LIKE MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN REGARDS TO THE MID LEVEL
PORTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SOME PRECIPITATION...
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...
DIFFERING TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN AND SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT. FOR THE GFS...THE LAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BECOME SLOWER AND
IT IS NOW THE SLOWEST MODEL AND ALSO A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE
12Z ECMWF STILL HAS ABOUT THE SAME PATH AND IS THE MOST WOUND UP
AS BEFORE...HOWEVER IT IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND
THE GFS. CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE.
THE GEFS TENDED TO SIDE A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION.
THE WPC DISCUSSION AND MANUAL PROGS WENT TOWARD THE INTERMEDIATE
SOLUTION...CLOSER TO THE GEFS/ECMWF MEAN SOLUTION. THE INIT BLEND
REFLECTED THE INTERMEDIATE/SLOWER SOLUTION. CONSIDERING THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...MADE NO CHANGES
TO WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR POPS. THIS AMOUNTED TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GOING WITH THE ABOVE DEPICTION...I SLOWED DOWN/KEPT THE CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW FURTHER WEST. ALL SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TO JUST ACROSS THE COLORADO BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS.
A MIXTURE WILL BE JUST EAST OF THAT AND ALL RAIN STILL IN THE
EAST. THE SNOW OR MIXTURE SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO RAIN BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT AND HAVE THE MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW ENDING AT
THAT TIME. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING NEAR AN INCH IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BUT THAT COULD CHANGE QUICKLY IF MORE WAFFLING
OF SOLUTIONS OCCUR.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL COOL
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC. SOME
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z-12Z FOR BOTH SITES. WINDS FOR KGLD
LGT/VAR THRU 15Z SATURDAY MORNING THEN SW 10-20KTS. FOR
KMCK...WINDS WSW AROUND 10KTS THRU 23Z SATURDAY...THEN SW
10-20KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
916 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE WITH BULK OF
CLOUDS NOW SOUTH OF CWA. REPLACING THE CLOUDS ARE TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE 30S...AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH DROP CWA INTO THE 20S WHICH GOING FORECAST HAS
COVERED WELL. TIGHT T/TD SPREADS ARE ALLOWING PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN EASTERN COLORADO.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE ADDED IN MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG THRU
12Z SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES. IF AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG INCREASES
OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT FOR NOW
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS OUT TO COVER POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND OVER OUR CWA...TO THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
FROM WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AXIS OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAVE RESULTED
IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN THE WEST HAVE
RESULTED IN RAIN/SNOW MIX WHERE MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE SATURATED THE
DRY MIXED LAYER. THE FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...THE HIGHER THE WBZ
HEIGHTS ARE AND LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST...SO I WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE (ROUGHLY AROUND SUNSET). WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING...NAM/SREF STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z
SATURDAY. CONSIDERING FORECAST TEMPS THIS WOULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG
POTENTIAL AND SLICK ROADWAYS. RAP IS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...WITH HRRR
TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH AND FOG SIGNAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE I HAVE DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING FOG MENTION
IN THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...AND WILL ALLOW
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
BUILDING LEE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WAA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AT
LEAST IN THE MID 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE UPPER
50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG FIRST TWO
NIGHTS...WINDS/FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY...AND CHANCE/TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO
A MORE AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW HAS BEEN NOTED
IN THE PACIFIC IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
MODELS WERE STARTING FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS WERE NOT QUITE AMPLIFIED/TOO FAR EAST WITH THE ALASKA SYSTEM
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WAS NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH.
OVERALL THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. THE NAM
AND ECMWF WERE STARTING OUT WELL AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS/CANADIAN
AND THE ECMWF/NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGING AND DRY AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE.
COULD END UP RATHER MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR DUE TO THE WINDS
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM SHOWING FOG
IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. HOWEVER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS THE
NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS. WILL PROBABLY
END BEING A THICK FROST OR DEW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...RETREATING SURFACE HIGH/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH
CREATES A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE PROGGED 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS LOOK TO CREATE
BREEZY AND ESPECIALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. DEWPOINTS TO BE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. AT THIS TIME...THE LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SO WE LOOK SAFE FOR NOW ON FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES.
AGAIN THE NAM LOOKS LIKE IT IS OVERDOING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WITH A CONTINUED DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO WILL ONCE AGAIN END
UP AS FROST OR DEW.
MONDAY...DEEP DRY AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. AT THE SAME TIME A
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING OR BE
NEAR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT WILL PROBABLY
ONLY SEE HIGH CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. JET/LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT GETS STRONGER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO A
DEEP DRY LAYER...IT ONLY LOOKS LIKE MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN REGARDS TO THE MID LEVEL
PORTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SOME PRECIPITATION...
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...
DIFFERING TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN AND SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT. FOR THE GFS...THE LAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BECOME SLOWER AND
IT IS NOW THE SLOWEST MODEL AND ALSO A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE
12Z ECMWF STILL HAS ABOUT THE SAME PATH AND IS THE MOST WOUND UP
AS BEFORE...HOWEVER IT IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND
THE GFS. CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE.
THE GEFS TENDED TO SIDE A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION.
THE WPC DISCUSSION AND MANUAL PROGS WENT TOWARD THE INTERMEDIATE
SOLUTION...CLOSER TO THE GEFS/ECMWF MEAN SOLUTION. THE INIT BLEND
REFLECTED THE INTERMEDIATE/SLOWER SOLUTION. CONSIDERING THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...MADE NO CHANGES
TO WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR POPS. THIS AMOUNTED TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GOING WITH THE ABOVE DEPICTION...I SLOWED DOWN/KEPT THE CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW FURTHER WEST. ALL SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TO JUST ACROSS THE COLORADO BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS.
A MIXTURE WILL BE JUST EAST OF THAT AND ALL RAIN STILL IN THE
EAST. THE SNOW OR MIXTURE SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO RAIN BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT AND HAVE THE MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW ENDING AT
THAT TIME. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING NEAR AN INCH IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BUT THAT COULD CHANGE QUICKLY IF MORE WAFFLING
OF SOLUTIONS OCCUR.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL COOL
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
FOR KGLD/KMCK...VFR/MVFR MIX THRU 08Z WITH BKN035-060 DOWN TO
BKN015 AT TIMES WITH VCSH. AFTER 08Z...BKN003 CEILINGS WITH 6SM BR
AT TIMES. BY 15Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH SKC. WINDS NNW AROUND 10KTS
BECOMING LGT/VAR THRU 15Z THEN SW 10-20KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
452 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW THEN LIFTS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WV IMAGERY AND 07/19Z RAP MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS BEING
PUSHED EWD AS A RESULT OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
NRN HIGH PLAINS. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOIST FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND IN A
ZONE OF SW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND A RIDGE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WRN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A THE LEADING
EDGE OF A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AND NOW
EXTENDS WSW-ENE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. 1030MB
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT AND MOIST FRONTAL BAND S OF
THE LOCAL AREA BY LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CAA WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NW. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WRN NC NE THROUGH THE DELMARVA...WITH
THE EARLIER BATCH OF RAIN (AND EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER NE NC) NOW
OFFSHORE. HIGH-RES DATA SUGGESTS SOME RAIN WILL RE-DEVELOP ACROSS SE
VA/NE NC THROUGH THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH THE EVENING. CLOUDY
EARLY...WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED ACROSS THE N LATE. FORECAST LOWS
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NW...TO THE LOW 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS WITH REGARD TO 1030+ MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ESE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
SUNDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING
OFFSHORE MONDAY. N/NE FLOW WILL BE STRONG SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE
COAST WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...15-20 MPH FARTHER INLAND. THE WIND
DIMINISHES SUNDAY AFTN AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN AND THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS. THE FLOW IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING SO IN SPITE
OF FULL SUN MOST AREAS IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR HIGHS ON
SUNDAY...FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S N...TO NEAR 60 OVER THE SOUTH. GIVEN
THE STRONG HIGH WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE SUN NIGHT OVER THE
PIEDMONT WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S FROM THE PIEDMONT TO
THE MD ERN SHORE. FARTHER SE...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE QUICKER ALLOWING FOR SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 40S. CLOUDS INCREASE/THICKEN MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVES NE. GIVEN THE QUICKER 12Z
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CHC POPS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS MONDAY (PRIMARILY
DURING THE AFTN). LIMITED MIXING SO HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL-
SIDE OF NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 50S NW...TO MID 60S SE.
12Z/07 MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS A
WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION. THEREFORE POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY FARTHER INLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN 0.5". CLOUDY WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE
UPPER 40S NW...TO AROUND 60 SE...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY FROM THE UPPER
50S/AROUND 60 NW...TO THE UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LO PRES ALNG OR JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST TUE EVENG...WILL MOVE
OUT TO SEA TUE NGT INTO WED MORNG. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION
DURING WED...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST WED NGT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FM THE W. THAT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA ON
THU...THEN PUSHES OUT TO SEA THU NGT. COOL HI PRES THEN BLDS
TWD/INTO THE REGION FOR FRI THRU SAT. SO...LINGERING SML OR SLGT
CHC OF RAIN EARLY TUE NGT...THEN DRY WX WED INTO WED NGT. SLGT CHC
TO CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU INTO THU EVENG. DRY WX AGAIN FRI THRU
SAT. LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S WED MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID
50S THU MORNG...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S FRI MORNG...AND IN THE
UPR 30S TO UPR 40S SAT MORNG. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO ARND 70 WED
AND THU...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR
60S SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF SBY AND RIC AT 18Z
MARKED BY A WELL DEFINED TEMPERATURE DROP AS WELL AS A DEFINITE
SHIFT IN THE WIND. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE HAMPTON ROADS WERE A
RESULT OF LOCAL BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IFR HAS NOT BEE PERSISTENT AND LIMITED ITS USE IN THE TAFS TO
SRN PORTIONS MAINLY IN HEAVIER PCPN.
THE FRONT REACHES ECG AROUND 01Z. RAIN ENDS SHORTLY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE SKY CLEARING BY LATE EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. GUSTY N WINDS DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST TNGT AND
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT ORF DUE TO A SURGE DOWN THE BAY.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN AND LOWER AVIATION CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING OFF THE CST AND SE OF NE NC CSTL WTRS LATE
THIS AFTN. N WINDS WERE STARTING TO PICK UP ACRS THE WTRS...AND
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENG/OVRNGT...AS HI PRES BLDNG EWRD FM THE OH
VALLEY USHERS LO LEVEL CAA INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL THE WTRS TNGT THRU SUN AFTN. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS...EVEN IN THE BAY. WAVES WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5 FT...AND SEAS 4
TO 6 FT N...TO 6 TO 8 FT S. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE WTRS ON SUN...
LOCATING OVER THE NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN AND SUN NGT. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE WTRS LATE SUN. SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...FINALLY DROPPING BELOW 5
FT SUN EVENG. FLOW THEN BECOMES ONSHORE SUN NGT AOB 15 KT. THE
HI SLIDES OFFSHR ON MON. LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG A CSTL TROF LATE
MON INTO TUE MORNG...THEN LIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST
TUE INTO TUE NGT. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA...SEAS
COULD BLD TO 5 FT OR HIGHER TUE INTO WED MORNG. HI PRES BLDS BACK
OVER THE REGION DURING WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THU.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW THEN LIFTS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WV IMAGERY AND 07/19Z RAP MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS BEING
PUSHED EWD AS A RESULT OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
NRN HIGH PLAINS. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOIST FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND IN A
ZONE OF SW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND A RIDGE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WRN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A THE LEADING
EDGE OF A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AND NOW
EXTENDS WSW-ENE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. 1030MB
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT AND MOIST FRONTAL BAND S OF
THE LOCAL AREA BY LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CAA WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NW. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WRN NC NE THROUGH THE DELMARVA...WITH
THE EARLIER BATCH OF RAIN (AND EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER NE NC) NOW
OFFSHORE. HIGH-RES DATA SUGGESTS SOME RAIN WILL RE-DEVELOP ACROSS SE
VA/NE NC THROUGH THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH THE EVENING. CLOUDY
EARLY...WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED ACROSS THE N LATE. FORECAST LOWS
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NW...TO THE LOW 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS WITH REGARD TO 1030+ MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ESE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
SUNDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING
OFFSHORE MONDAY. N/NE FLOW WILL BE STRONG SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE
COAST WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...15-20 MPH FARTHER INLAND. THE WIND
DIMINISHES SUNDAY AFTN AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN AND THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS. THE FLOW IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING SO IN SPITE
OF FULL SUN MOST AREAS IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR HIGHS ON
SUNDAY...FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S N...TO NEAR 60 OVER THE SOUTH. GIVEN
THE STRONG HIGH WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE SUN NIGHT OVER THE
PIEDMONT WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S FROM THE PIEDMONT TO
THE MD ERN SHORE. FARTHER SE...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE QUICKER ALLOWING FOR SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 40S. CLOUDS INCREASE/THICKEN MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVES NE. GIVEN THE QUICKER 12Z
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CHC POPS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS MONDAY (PRIMARILY
DURING THE AFTN). LIMITED MIXING SO HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL-
SIDE OF NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 50S NW...TO MID 60S SE.
12Z/07 MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS A
WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION. THEREFORE POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY FARTHER INLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN 0.5". CLOUDY WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE
UPPER 40S NW...TO AROUND 60 SE...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY FROM THE UPPER
50S/AROUND 60 NW...TO THE UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY SIMILAR TRENDS FROM THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM...INDICATING THAT SFC LOW ALONG THE SE COAST MOVES
BACK NNE MON NIGHT...AND BRINGS ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
CHC POPS LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE. DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH
AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE NC COAST TUE TO
HAVE A PERIOD OF LOW-END LIKELY POPS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC AND
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. HOWEVER...AS
NOTED BEFORE...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL SPLIT IN MSTR FIELDS AS
MOST OF THE MSTR ASSCTD WITH THE CSTL LOW EITHER HUGS THE COAST OR
STAYS OFFSHORE. MSTR ASSCTD WITH THE UPR LVL LOW TRACKING NE ALONG
THE MTS MAY LEAVE MOST OF AKQ FA IN THE RGN WITH NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF QPF EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR SE. THIS SETUP HAS THE PTNTL
FOR AN INSITU- WEDGE EVENT...BUT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH PCPN
ACTUALLY FALLS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOWS MON NITE 45-50 NWRN HALF
OF FA...50-60 SERN HALF. TMPS TUE MAINLY IN THE 60S...BUT CUD BE
LWR ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT IF WDSPRD PCPN OCCURS. KEPT LOW CHC
POPS TUE NITE DUE TO LINGERING TROFINESS AND LL MSTR. LOWS U40S-
U50S.
HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTMS WED THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THURS. MILD AS H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS GOING ABV NRML
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS BOTH DAYS 65-70. LOWS IN THE 50S.
NEXT CDFRNT CROSSES THE FA LATE THU NIGHT / FRI MORNING. WON`T GET
TO FANCY THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL INDCT LOW CHC POPS WITH FROPA. HIGHS
60-65.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF SBY AND RIC AT 18Z
MARKED BY A WELL DEFINED TEMPERATURE DROP AS WELL AS A DEFINITE
SHIFT IN THE WIND. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE HAMPTON ROADS WERE A
RESULT OF LOCAL BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IFR HAS NOT BEE PERSISTENT AND LIMITED ITS USE IN THE TAFS TO
SRN PORTIONS MAINLY IN HEAVIER PCPN.
THE FRONT REACHES ECG AROUND 01Z. RAIN ENDS SHORTLY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE SKY CLEARING BY LATE EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. GUSTY N WINDS DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST TNGT AND
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT ORF DUE TO A SURGE DOWN THE BAY.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN AND LOWER AVIATION CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT IS A SW
WIND OF 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT AND
WAVES ~2 FT. THE FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NW TO N BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS AND LOW
LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN STRONG SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS...EVEN IN THE BAY. WAVES BUILD TO 3 TO
5 FT AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT NORTH TO 6 TO 8 FT SOUTH. FLOW IS NOT
PARTICULARLY ANOMALOUS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE GALE CONDITIONS ATTM.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SUN...LOCATING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
WATERS LATE SUN. SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE...FINALLY DROPPING BELOW 5 FT SUNDAY EVENING. FLOW THEN
BECOMES ONSHORE SUN NIGHT AOB 15 KT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MON.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH TUES...LIFTING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST INTO TUES NIGHT. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...SEAS COULD BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION LATE WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
405 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE THAT FOLLOWS WILL KEEP TODAY MUCH CLOSER TO TYPICAL EARLY
NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EDGES UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
IN THE PREDAWN... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
APPALACHAINS AND TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW AND
THERE IS A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR SOME. EXPECT SHOWER THREAT TO
COALESCE OVER CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MD TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS IN.
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY. EXPECTING
TODAY TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. BEST CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS AS
FORECAST BY THE MESO MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE NSSL WRF
AND SPC SSEO WILL BE OVER CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MD
WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THERE. HIGH
PRES WILL KICK THAT OUT BY LATE TODAY WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS
IN THE 50S FOR SUNDAY WITH SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE WEEK AHD...FLOW PTTN ACRS MOST OF THE CONUS GNLY ZONAL. WL
HV BROAD RDGG ACRS THE CENTRAL AND EAST...W/ PACKETS OF ENERGY
EJECTING FM A PACIFIC COAST TROF. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WL BE
EMERGING FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TWD THE OHVLY MON...AND SHUD REACH
THE ERN GRTLKS WHILE FILLING TUE. CWFA WL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM....WHICH WL PROMOTE SLY FLOW/WAA/UPGLIDE. CLDS WL BE
ADVANCING NWD DURING THE DAY...SPCLY THE AFTN...W/ PSBL -SHRA AT
NGT. CWFA MAY BE A BIT REMOVED FM BEST PVA...BUT THAT WUD BE
COMPENSATED BY THTE RDG/INVERTED TROF. GDNC DISPLAYING A BIT OF
SPREAD AS TO HOW THIS WL ALL TRANSPIRE. FCST HIEST POPS /HIGH END
CHC TO LOW END LKLY/ WL BE APPROX MIDNGT-NOON TUE...NEARER THESE
AXES.
BY TUE NGT...A SHARPER WEST COAST TROF WL DVLP...FROM WHICH A MORE
POTENT LOW WL EMERGE WED. ITS CONCERN LCLLY WL BE ON THU...AS LOPRES
WL BE RUMBLING ACRS THE GRTLKS...DROPPING A CDFNT ACRS THE CWFA.
ONCE AGAIN...HV POPS ON THE HIER SIDE OF CHC...FOCUSED PRIMARILY
DURING THE DAY ON THU. WUD XPCT SOME ADJUSTMENT OF TIMING AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. CHC POPS WED NGT AND THU NGT REFLECT THAT.
ENVIRONMENT WL REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND HUMID THRU THE MIDWEEK.
THIS WL MANIFEST ITSELF IN DEWPTS/LOW TEMPS AND POTENTIALLY CLDCVR.
TEMPS NOT FAR FM WPC...WHICH UTILIZES A MULTI-MODEL MEAN.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR ROUGHLY FOR THE N HALF OF OUR DOMAIN TODAY...WHILE MVFR AND
POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF IFR IN THE SOUTH. DIVIDING LINE WILL BE NEAR
THE MAJOR TAF SITES OF IAD DCA AND BWI. ATTM EXPECTING BWI WILL BE
WITH THE N AND IAD AND DCA WITH THE S. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THRU THIS MORNING. VFR RETURNS FOR ALL BY
TONIGHT AND LASTS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
MON...VFR DURING THE DAY. CHC SHRA ARRIVING AT NGT. PCPN SHUD BE
LGT PRECLUDING SUBSTANTIVE RESTRICTIONS TIL LATE.
TUE...FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO LOW CLDS/FOG/CHC PCPN.
WED...LOWER CONFIDENCE VFR. MAY HV RESTRICTIONS TO START...AND
UNSURE HOW QUICKLY THIS WUD LIFT. FURTHER...ADDTL SHRA MAY BE
APPROACHING AT NGT.
&&
.MARINE...
NW WINDS MOVE IN THIS MORNING. EXPECT GUSTS OF 10 TO 15 KT DURING
THE DAY TODAY. AS HIGH BUILDS IN AND WINDS BECOME N TONIGHT...
CHANNELING FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADV
CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY...DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY.
NO SCA HAZARDS XPCTD THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PD. WINDS SHUD HV A
SUBSTANTIAL CONTRIBUTION FM ELY FLOW.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ531>534-537>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...CAS/HTS
MARINE...CAS/HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
620 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...BREEZY SW
WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN
HIGH PRES OVER OH/PA AND A TROUGH INTO THE WRN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI WITH LOWER READINGS AROUND 50 DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MIXING WITH PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID 30S...ESPECIALLY IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS WHERE READINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 40.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH VALUES AT LEAST AS
HIGH OR SLIGHTY HIGHER THAN TODAY AS 925-900 MB TEMPS CLIMB. SO...
EXPECT TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
...LATE WEEK STORM TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SOME SNOW...
ATTN IS SQUARELY ON STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE SYSTEM...BOTH AHEAD OF THE LOW AND AGAIN
BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. COLDER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE LOW ALONG WITH
ARRIVAL OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT/MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. ALL AREAS WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS ON
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE NEXT WEEKEND...THEN BIG DIFFERENCES OCCUR
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR WHAT OCCURS JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED DAYS 8-
10. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH TROUGHS/RIDGES...SO
NO NEED TO STRAY FM CONSENSUS ATTM.
BACK TO EARLY THIS WEEK. CONDITIONS APPEAR TRANQUIL UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OFF OF PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY TUESDAY THEN HEADS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WELL AGREED UPON BY MODELS TRACKS TO
CENTRAL KS BY THAT TIME. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE LOW...MAINLY IN THE H8-H7 LAYER...BUT IT REMAINS DRY BLO CLOUD
BASE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT POPS
STAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE. LATER WED AFTN INTO WED EVENING PVA AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT 295-305K
SFCS /H85-H6/ SHOULD SUPPORT WIDEPSREAD SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS /12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OVER 250M/ DRY SLOT ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR TSRA AS SHOWN BY SI/S NEAR ZERO. THOUGH COVERAGE OF
SHRA DECREASES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...CORE OF COLDEST
AIR ALOFT WITH UPR LOW CENTER COULD LEAD TO SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA.
KEPT MENTION OF TSRA IN UNTIL SI/S START RISING WELL ABOVE ZERO.
SFC LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FM NORTHERN OR NORTHEAST WI ON THURSDAY
MORNING TO NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN/EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY EARLY AFTN.
ECMWF FARTHER WEST WITH TRACK OF LOW COMPARED TO GFS AND GEM-NH.
ONCE THE LOW CROSSES EAST OF CWA ON THURSDAY AFTN...EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NW AND BEGIN INCREASING. TRACK OF LOW AND SPEED OF LOW
WILL HAVE LARGE BEARING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS INCREASE IN WIND OCCURS.
WITH A FARTHER EAST TRACK TO THE LOW IN GFS/ECMWF COMPARED TO RECENT
MODEL RUNS...WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG ACROSS LK SUPERIOR INTO THU
NIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT 35-40 KTS IN MIXED LAYER THOUGH...SO GUSTS
NEAR THE SHORE WOULD STILL BE NEAR ADVY.
ONCE COLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL BE
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MORE MIXING AND GALES OVER LK SUPERIOR WITH
ADVY WINDS /45+ MPH GUSTS/ NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE. GUSTS OVER LAND
IN THE 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ATTN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WILL ALSO BE ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WESTERN CWA. EXTENT
OF COLD AIR IS BECOMING MORE IN QUESTION THOUGH...RESULTING IN NOT
AS CLEAR CUT AS LAKE ENHANCED SCENARIO AS IT APPEARED 24 HR AGO.
MAIN ISSUE IS SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTN
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW THE WAVE DIGGING FARTHER
SOUTH AND THEREFORE ARE WARMER OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND UPR
MICHIGAN /H85 TEMPS AROUND -3C VERSUS THE GFS SHOWING AVG OF -7C/.
EITHER SCENARIO IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT BUT ECMWF AND
GEM-NH WOULD RESULT IN MORE MARGINAL SETUP FOR MUCH SNOWFALL. SINCE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE STILL OVER PACIFIC...PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THINGS TO CHANGE...SO WILL NOT CHANGE GOING FORECAST TOO MUCH. BUT
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL ALSO NOT MENTION THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. AS WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
LLWS TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES WHICH WILL GO AWAY
MON MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
AS HIGH PRES OVER OH/[A CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST...SW
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY. SRLY WINDS AOB 20 KNOTS MON INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH E
GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
429 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM NE CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
SHRTWV THAT WAS SLIDING THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR HELPED SUPPORT A
MESO-LOW LIKE BAND OF PCPN AND WINDS THROUGH SRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW
LEVEL TEMPS WERE WARM ENOUGH SO THAT MAINLY RAIN WAS OBSERVED INTO
P53. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN FARTHER INLAND
SIMILR TO WHAT OCCURRED OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING WHERE A COATING
OF SNOW FELL.
TONIGHT INTO SUN...EXPECT SCT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO CONTINUE FOR NW
FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE ERN CWA WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND
-6C/-15C AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING. 300-310 WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THE PCPN MAINLY FROM P53 EASTWARD. WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO WRLY WITH QUICKLY FALLING
INVERSION HEIGHTS BY 06Z WHICH SHOULD END THE PCPN. MAINLY RAIN
IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SHORE WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INLAND. ANY
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. INLAND...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN WITH FCST MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1K FT...SUNSHINE AND WAA WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO LOWER 50S SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MID TO LATE WEEK...
UPPER LEVELS START OUT ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT RIDGE FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. CUTOFF SHORTWAVE DRIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY...BUT SYSTEM IS SO STARVED FOR
MOISTURE PROBABLY WILL NOT EVEN SEE ANY HIGH CLOUDS. MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
50S WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SW-S. MIXING HEIGHTS FORECAST TO BE 2-3KFT
BUT IF THEY END UP HIGHER COULD SEE MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY REACH NEAR
60 DEGREES AT DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF WEST AND CNTRL NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT COULD DIP NEAR FREEZING
AT SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE H8-H7 AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
AHEAD OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH CROSSING WESTERN CONUS AND SFC TROUGH FM
EASTERN CO INTO NORTHERN MN. STRONGEST SFC LOW IN THE TROUGH WITH
MSLP OF 995-1000MB WILL BE OVER CO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. POPS ONLY LOW
CHANCE TUE NIGHT THOUGH AS LIFT IS WEAK AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE
LACKING. MAY EVEN BE SITUATION WHERE DZ OCCURS INSTEAD OF RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS.
ATTN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ON DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER KS/NEB DOWN TO MSLP OF 990-995MB. SETUP AT LEAST FOR MOST OF
DAY APPEARS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT/LARGER SCALE FORCING. SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATER TUE AFTN. SE WINDS MAY
RESULT IN BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY OVER CNTRL CWA DUE TO
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFT. DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SOME
RAIN IN ADDITION TO SE WINDS OFF LK MICHIGAN...TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL STAY NEAR 50 DEGREES. THIS IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER.
WESTERN TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THIS DEEP SYSTEM ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
DEEPENING SFC LOW /FALLING BLO 990MB ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT
MOVES FROM IA TO WI/ LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
DEEP LIFT FM THE STRONG UPPER LOW /12 HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 300M IN 12
HRS/ AND SHARP RIBBON OF 1000-850MB THETA-E/PWATS OVER 1 INCH SHOULD
SUPPORT SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TO NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRYING ALOFT MOVING IN WITH UPPER SYSTEM
OVERNIGHT LEADS TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE
TSRA. DRY SLOT EVENTUALLY SHOULD DIMINISH RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. E-SE WINDS WILL GET GUSTY AS THE DEEPENING SFC LOW
MOVES CLOSER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND OVER EASTERN CWA.
SINCE CORE OF UPPER LOW AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT MOVES ACROSS ON
THURSDAY...KEPT MENTION OF TSRA IN THE MORNING.
GRANTED A LOT CAN CHANGE IN THE MODELS BTWN NOW AND LATER THIS WEEK
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CAUSE THIS LOW IS STILL
OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...BUT ATTM BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF RUNS
SINCE LAST EVENING INDICATE SFC LOW POSSIBLY BLO 980MB CROSSES CNTRL
UPR MICHIGAN THURSDAY. WITH SUCH STRONG LOW OVERHEAD...ATTN ONCE THE
LOW MOVES BY WILL TURN TO COLD AIR ADVECITON AND PROBABLY MORE OF AN
ISSUE...VERY STRONG W-WNW WINDS. SFC LOW WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF LK
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN. THOUGH THE ECWMF IS AROUND 10 MB
WEAKER WITH MSLP CENTER COMPARED TO GFS...WIND FIELDS WITH SYSTEM ARE
SIMILAR. BOTH MODELS SHOW H925 WINDS 50 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR THU
EVENING. WINDS ARE PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE
1000-850MB LAYER SO MIXING SHOULD BE EFFICENT. DO NOT SEE WHY THERE
WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM. INCREASED WINDS OVER
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. RESULT IS A SOLID GALE OVER LK SUPERIOR...LIKELY
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR ADVY LEVEL
WINDS ALONG LK SUPERIOR SHORE FOR AREAS FAVORED BY W-WNW WINDS.
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT APPEARS TO BE REINFORCED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT COLD AIR /H85
TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY ARE AROUND -6C/ TO RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
FOR MUCH OF CWA ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WOULD BE FAVORED FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. STRONG GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS. TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN
THE 30S OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LK
MICHIGAN. TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS NEXT SATURDAY AND SFC LOW MOVES INTO
QUEBEC. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
MVFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN THIS EVENING WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN LAKES BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS.
AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY...SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS TO 25 KTS REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. E GALES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
LATE THU INTO FRI...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM NE CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
SHRTWV THAT WAS SLIDING THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR HELPED SUPPORT A
MESO-LOW LIKE BAND OF PCPN AND WINDS THROUGH SRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW
LEVEL TEMPS WERE WARM ENOUGH SO THAT MAINLY RAIN WAS OBSERVED INTO
P53. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN FARTHER INLAND
SIMILR TO WHAT OCCURRED OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING WHERE A COATING
OF SNOW FELL.
TONIGHT INTO SUN...EXPECT SCT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO CONTINUE FOR NW
FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE ERN CWA WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND
-6C/-15C AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING. 300-310 WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THE PCPN MAINLY FROM P53 EASTWARD. WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO WRLY WITH QUICKLY FALLING
INVERSION HEIGHTS BY 06Z WHICH SHOULD END THE PCPN. MAINLY RAIN
IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SHORE WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INLAND. ANY
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. INLAND...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN WITH FCST MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1K FT...SUNSHINE AND WAA WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO LOWER 50S SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
SUN INTO TUE. A TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND THE WRN LAKES FROM WED INTO THU WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN LAKES. SOME SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE WEST BY LATE THU INTO FRI AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL REBOUND FROM COLD CONDITIONS TODAY
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FROM SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUN AND MON...AS THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE PUSHES SE OF THE REGION...
INCREASING SW WINDS AND WAA WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SUN AND LOWER TO MID 50S ON MON. MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL YIELD
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH DAYS.
TUE...AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST...FORCING FROM A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS
BUT A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...MODELS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF A
SFC LOW DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUE AND THEN CONTINUING
TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED INTO THU
IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX EMERGING
FROM THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS TROF. MODELS DIFFER WIDELY ON TRACK
OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z ECMWF THE QUICKEST AND
FARTHEST WEST OF MODEL SOLUTIONS BRINGING A 984 MB SFC LOW INTO WRN
UPPER MI THU MORNING WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS THE FARTHEST
EAST/SOUTH TAKING A 984 MB LOW THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MI INTO
GEORGIAN BAY BY WED NIGHT/THU. THE 00Z GFS OFFERS A DEEPER SOLUTION
WITH A COMPROMISE TRACK BRINGING THE 975 MB LOW INTO UPPER MI ALONG
A ESCANABA/MUNISING TRACK LATE WED NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE MODEL CONSENSUS POPS FOR
FCST. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE PCPN COULD MOVE IN AS EARLY AS TUE
NIGHT WITH A LEAD SHRTWV AND AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. BETTER
CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH INCREASING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTENING/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CLOSED LOW. EXPECT LINGERING
WRAPAROUND PCPN INTO THU AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFTS NE OF THE REGION.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO
-6 TO -8C LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN A WNW FLOW COULD CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX WITH OR CHANGEOVER TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NW AND FAR NE CWA FAVORED BY A WNW FLOW.
ALSO EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THU INTO FRI ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AS CAA AIDS DEEPER MIXING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
MVFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN THIS EVENING WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN LAKES BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS.
AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY...SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS TO 25 KTS REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. E GALES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
LATE THU INTO FRI...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
346 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS ODDLY HELD ON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS A VERY STRONG +160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET HAS
IMPEDED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE FOOTPRINT OF THE RIDGING HAS
BEEN SHRINKING STEADILY IN RESPONSE TO METHODICAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN ALMOST DUE WESTERLY FLOW. BLOCKED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN CWA AS OF 06Z. A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE OF THIS CVA HAS BEEN A BREAKING OFF OF SOME
LAKE MICHIGAN EHANCED CONVERGENCE WITH THE -DIV CENTER NOW WORKING
EASTWARD ON THE PREFERRED I-94 TRAJECTORY. EHNANCED LOW LEVEL THETA
E POOLED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR OF SUBTLE INCREASED CONVERGENCE HAS LED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. WITH
IR IMAGERY SHOWING REGENERATION OF LAKE CLOUD ACROSS THE WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINES...DECIDED THERE WAS ENOUGH IN FAVOR OF
ADDING SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST BETWEEN 06-12Z.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET CORE OVERLYING THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...NE US...AND CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PULL EASTWARD TODAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEART OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME
POSITIONED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 18-00Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECASTED TO FALL FROM ROUGHLY -1C AND -3C THIS MORNING TO -3
AND -5 C BY THIS EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATESBIN THE STEADY CAA REGIME WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT OVER LAKE HURON. THERE IS A VERY FAVORABLE
SMALL SCALE MIDLEVEL THETA E RIDGE STRUCTURE THAT IS FORECASTED TO
ORGANIZE OVER SEMICHIGAN AT 21Z WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE. IT
REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO GO MUCH MORE THAN A CHANCE POP AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS A DRY TRAJECTORY FOR THE AREA...BUT EXPECTING
ENOUGH RADAR RETURNS TO WARRANT THE CHANCE/SCATTERED MENTION. WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...SURFACE WET BULB VALUES WILL BE IN
THE BALLPARK TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW PELLET TYPE HYDROMETEORS. AT THIS
STAGE WILL HONOR THE BULK PARAMETERS...OF WARMISH +8C SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND FREEZING HEIGHTS AT 3000 FT TO KEEP THE FORECAST
AS RAIN. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE HERE.
THE ONSLAUGHT OF DRY AIR ADVECTION AT THE MIDLEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH IN
ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING PER THE RAP AND NAM. SIDED WITH
THIS OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION BEFORE FILLING CLOUDS BACK IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE AND DEEP RIDGING
WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL YIELD COLD TEMPERATURES. DID NOT STRAY OFF OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN STORE FOR MONDAY WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE AS OUR AREA LIES BETWEEN
A SPLIT FLOW. MODEST WARMING AT 925 MB AS TEMPS INCREASE FROM AROUND
0C TO 3C IN 24 HOURS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
RELATIVE TO SUNDAY.
VORTICITY THAT IS CURRENTLY STRUNG OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS WAVE PASSING
INNOCUOUSLY AND UNABLE TO SPREAD ANY RESPECTABLE MOISTURE INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE...ALLOWING MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD IN AND GENERATING SOME SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DIGGING TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AT ABOUT 42N/137W THIS AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTC NWP SEEMS TO
HAVE STABILIZED SOMEWHAT SINCE YESTERDAY/S 12Z SUITE IN DEPICTIONS
OF STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY...TRACKING
THE CYCLONE TOWARD NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRIDAY. A STRIKING
CHANGE FROM 24 HOUR AGO IS THE CONVERGENCE OF NEARLY ALL GEFS
MEMBERS DEVELOPING A STRONG CYCLONE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE CYCLONE.
ALSO STRIKING IS THE GFS DEVELOPING A VERY STRONG STORM...BOTTOMING
OUT AT 974 MB NEAR MARQUETTE MI AT 12Z THURSDAY. EVEN THE GEFS MEAN
BOTTOMS OUT AT 980 MB. THIS CONTRASTS WITH THE ECMWF...WHICH BOTTOMS
OUT AT 984 MB.
IN TERMS OF WEATHER IMPACTS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS LOTS OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO PRODUCE VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE STRONGER
GFS PANS OUT. TEMPS WILL BE MILD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
COOLING DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING MAINTAINING THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW GENERALLY OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH HIGH GUSTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR BOTH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS OUTER SAGINAW BAY
AND PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP
SUNDAY EVENING WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW OF THIS SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1227 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
DIURNAL COMPONENT WILL BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH BKN CUMULUS
FIELD AROUND 4K FEET. ALSO WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 25
KTS. THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER 00Z CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
FORECAST.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RBP
LONG TERM....DT
MARINE.......RBP
AVIATION.....RBP
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1227 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.AVIATION...
DIURNAL COMPONENT WILL BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH BKN CUMULUS
FIELD AROUND 4K FEET. ALSO WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 25
KTS. THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER 00Z CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
FORECAST.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1043 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON. BKN CU ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI IN ADVANCE OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BELOW 10K FEET WITH TEMPS GETTING AROUND 50 DEGREES.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CARRY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND 12Z NAM CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE 15Z TEMPS...RAISED HIGH TEMPS ONE
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 324 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS ODDLY HELD ON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS A VERY STRONG +160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET HAS
IMPEDED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE FOOTPRINT OF THE RIDGING HAS
BEEN SHRINKING STEADILY IN RESPONSE TO METHODICAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN ALMOST DUE WESTERLY FLOW. BLOCKED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN CWA AS OF 06Z. A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE OF THIS CVA HAS BEEN A BREAKING OFF OF SOME
LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WITH THE -DIV CENTER NOW
WORKING EASTWARD ON THE PREFERRED I-94 TRAJECTORY. ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL THETA E POOLED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR OF SUBTLE INCREASED
CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS. WITH IR IMAGERY SHOWING REGENERATION OF LAKE
CLOUD ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINES...DECIDED THERE
WAS ENOUGH IN FAVOR OF ADDING SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST BETWEEN
06-12Z.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET CORE OVERLYING THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...NE US...AND CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PULL EASTWARD TODAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEART OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME
POSITIONED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 18-00Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECASTED TO FALL FROM ROUGHLY -1C AND -3C THIS MORNING TO -3
AND -5 C BY THIS EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE STEADY CAA REGIME WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT OVER LAKE HURON. THERE IS A VERY FAVORABLE
SMALL SCALE MIDLEVEL THETA E RIDGE STRUCTURE THAT IS FORECASTED TO
ORGANIZE OVER SEMICHIGAN AT 21Z WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE. IT
REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO GO MUCH MORE THAN A CHANCE POP AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS A DRY TRAJECTORY FOR THE AREA...BUT EXPECTING
ENOUGH RADAR RETURNS TO WARRANT THE CHANCE/SCATTERED MENTION. WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...SURFACE WET BULB VALUES WILL BE IN
THE BALLPARK TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW PELLET TYPE HYDROMETEORS. AT THIS
STAGE WILL HONOR THE BULK PARAMETERS...OF WARMISH +8C SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND FREEZING HEIGHTS AT 3000 FT TO KEEP THE FORECAST
AS RAIN. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE HERE.
THE ONSLAUGHT OF DRY AIR ADVECTION AT THE MIDLEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH IN
ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING PER THE RAP AND NAM. SIDED WITH
THIS OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION BEFORE FILLING CLOUDS BACK IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE AND DEEP RIDGING
WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL YIELD COLD TEMPERATURES. DID NOT STRAY OFF OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE TUCKED BENEATH WEAKLY CONFLUENT WEST-NORTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN A DRY AND STABLE PROFILE ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THE FULL SUNSHINE...LIMITED MODERATION OF THE EXISTING AIR MASS WILL
LEAVE HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 40S. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SLIP TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WITHIN A VERY DRY
AMBIENT PROFILE WILL FAVOR FULL SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EMERGING LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INTRODUCE A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTIVE COMPONENT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL
INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT AN UPWARD TREND TO
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEFT BEHIND IN THE
WAKE OF TODAY/S MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. COMPACT
CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL ASCENT TIED TO THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE
INTO AT LEAST A PERIOD OF INCREASING MID CLOUD /MAINLY SOUTH/ DURING
THIS TIME. LITTLE EVIDENCE WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST
ANYTHING BEHIND A VERY LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE QUALITY OR ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS WAVE. MINOR POPS CONFINED GENERALLY
SOUTH OF AN ANN ARBOR TO DETROIT LINE REMAIN APPROPRIATE. TRANSIENT
CLOUD DECK WOULD ALLOW A HIGHER DEGREE OF INSOLATION TO EMERGE BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN DURING THIS
TIME...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. RENEWED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE INCREASING
INSOLATION POTENTIAL WILL SUPPORT AN INCREMENTAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENT
IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 6 TO 8 C
BY 00Z TUE EVENING. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
THE AFORMENTIONED INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC MID LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY. EXTENSIVE WING OF
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT TUCKED BENEATH STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK/WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ANCHOR AN
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
MODEL OUTPUT STILL CARRYING A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY OWING TO
BOTH DIFFERENCES IN BOTH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE AND POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN WAVE...LEAVING DIFFERENCES IN BOTH
TIMING ANS STRENGTH. WITH THAT SAID...OVERALL PATTERN POINTS TOWARD
AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CENTERED ON LATE WEDNESDAY/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ABSENT OF A GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE A
MORE SIZABLE WARMUP WITH DAYTIME READINGS BALLPARK 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL /LOW-MID 60S/.
MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW GENERALLY WITHIN THE 15 KNOT RANGE WILL
PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR FUNNELS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP
BY MONDAY WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW OF THIS SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....RBP
UPDATE.......RBP
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1043 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON. BKN CU ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI IN ADVANCE OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BELOW 10K FEET WITH TEMPS GETTING AROUND 50 DEGREES.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CARRY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND 12Z NAM CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE 15Z TEMPS...RAISED HIGH TEMPS ONE
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 523 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
INCREASING CIG HEIGHTS AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN YIELDS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF
SCATTERING/CLEARING THIS MORNING. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION AND
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SUPPORTS A REDEVELOPMENT OF
BKN HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. MODEL DATA SUPPORTS RELATIVELY HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS WHICH
WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPING GUSTY WEST WINDS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS. EXITING
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS AND NOCTURNAL EFFECTS WILL THEN SUPPORT CLEARING
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOME VARIABLE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT AFTER 17Z. LOW IN BETWEEN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 324 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS ODDLY HELD ON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS A VERY STRONG +160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET HAS
IMPEDED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE FOOTPRINT OF THE RIDGING HAS
BEEN SHRINKING STEADILY IN RESPONSE TO METHODICAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN ALMOST DUE WESTERLY FLOW. BLOCKED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN CWA AS OF 06Z. A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE OF THIS CVA HAS BEEN A BREAKING OFF OF SOME
LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WITH THE -DIV CENTER NOW
WORKING EASTWARD ON THE PREFERRED I-94 TRAJECTORY. ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL THETA E POOLED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR OF SUBTLE INCREASED
CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS. WITH IR IMAGERY SHOWING REGENERATION OF LAKE
CLOUD ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINES...DECIDED THERE
WAS ENOUGH IN FAVOR OF ADDING SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST BETWEEN
06-12Z.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET CORE OVERLYING THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...NE US...AND CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PULL EASTWARD TODAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEART OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME
POSITIONED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 18-00Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECASTED TO FALL FROM ROUGHLY -1C AND -3C THIS MORNING TO -3
AND -5 C BY THIS EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE STEADY CAA REGIME WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT OVER LAKE HURON. THERE IS A VERY FAVORABLE
SMALL SCALE MIDLEVEL THETA E RIDGE STRUCTURE THAT IS FORECASTED TO
ORGANIZE OVER SEMICHIGAN AT 21Z WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE. IT
REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO GO MUCH MORE THAN A CHANCE POP AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS A DRY TRAJECTORY FOR THE AREA...BUT EXPECTING
ENOUGH RADAR RETURNS TO WARRANT THE CHANCE/SCATTERED MENTION. WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...SURFACE WET BULB VALUES WILL BE IN
THE BALLPARK TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW PELLET TYPE HYDROMETEORS. AT THIS
STAGE WILL HONOR THE BULK PARAMETERS...OF WARMISH +8C SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND FREEZING HEIGHTS AT 3000 FT TO KEEP THE FORECAST
AS RAIN. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE HERE.
THE ONSLAUGHT OF DRY AIR ADVECTION AT THE MIDLEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH IN
ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING PER THE RAP AND NAM. SIDED WITH
THIS OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION BEFORE FILLING CLOUDS BACK IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE AND DEEP RIDGING
WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL YIELD COLD TEMPERATURES. DID NOT STRAY OFF OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE TUCKED BENEATH WEAKLY CONFLUENT WEST-NORTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN A DRY AND STABLE PROFILE ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THE FULL SUNSHINE...LIMITED MODERATION OF THE EXISTING AIR MASS WILL
LEAVE HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 40S. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SLIP TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WITHIN A VERY DRY
AMBIENT PROFILE WILL FAVOR FULL SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EMERGING LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INTRODUCE A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTIVE COMPONENT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL
INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT AN UPWARD TREND TO
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEFT BEHIND IN THE
WAKE OF TODAY/S MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. COMPACT
CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL ASCENT TIED TO THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE
INTO AT LEAST A PERIOD OF INCREASING MID CLOUD /MAINLY SOUTH/ DURING
THIS TIME. LITTLE EVIDENCE WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST
ANYTHING BEHIND A VERY LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE QUALITY OR ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS WAVE. MINOR POPS CONFINED GENERALLY
SOUTH OF AN ANN ARBOR TO DETROIT LINE REMAIN APPROPRIATE. TRANSIENT
CLOUD DECK WOULD ALLOW A HIGHER DEGREE OF INSOLATION TO EMERGE BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN DURING THIS
TIME...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. RENEWED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE INCREASING
INSOLATION POTENTIAL WILL SUPPORT AN INCREMENTAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENT
IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 6 TO 8 C
BY 00Z TUE EVENING. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
THE AFORMENTIONED INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC MID LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY. EXTENSIVE WING OF
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT TUCKED BENEATH STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK/WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ANCHOR AN
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
MODEL OUTPUT STILL CARRYING A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY OWING TO
BOTH DIFFERENCES IN BOTH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE AND POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN WAVE...LEAVING DIFFERENCES IN BOTH
TIMING ANS STRENGTH. WITH THAT SAID...OVERALL PATTERN POINTS TOWARD
AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CENTERED ON LATE WEDNESDAY/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ABSENT OF A GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE A
MORE SIZABLE WARMUP WITH DAYTIME READINGS BALLPARK 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL /LOW-MID 60S/.
MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW GENERALLY WITHIN THE 15 KNOT RANGE WILL
PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR FUNNELS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP
BY MONDAY WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW OF THIS SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......RBP
AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
523 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.AVIATION...
INCREASING CIG HEIGHTS AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN YIELDS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF
SCATTERING/CLEARING THIS MORNING. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION AND
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SUPPORTS A REDEVELOPMENT OF
BKN HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. MODEL DATA SUPPORTS RELATIVELY HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS WHICH
WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPING GUSTY WEST WINDS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS. EXITING
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS AND NOCTURNAL EFFECTS WILL THEN SUPPORT CLEARING
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOME VARIABLE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT AFTER 17Z. LOW IN BETWEEN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 324 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS ODDLY HELD ON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS A VERY STRONG +160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET HAS
IMPEDED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE FOOTPRINT OF THE RIDGING HAS
BEEN SHRINKING STEADILY IN RESPONSE TO METHODICAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN ALMOST DUE WESTERLY FLOW. BLOCKED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN CWA AS OF 06Z. A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE OF THIS CVA HAS BEEN A BREAKING OFF OF SOME
LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WITH THE -DIV CENTER NOW
WORKING EASTWARD ON THE PREFERRED I-94 TRAJECTORY. ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL THETA E POOLED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR OF SUBTLE INCREASED
CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS. WITH IR IMAGERY SHOWING REGENERATION OF LAKE
CLOUD ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINES...DECIDED THERE
WAS ENOUGH IN FAVOR OF ADDING SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST BETWEEN
06-12Z.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET CORE OVERLYING THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...NE US...AND CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PULL EASTWARD TODAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEART OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME
POSITIONED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 18-00Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECASTED TO FALL FROM ROUGHLY -1C AND -3C THIS MORNING TO -3
AND -5 C BY THIS EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE STEADY CAA REGIME WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT OVER LAKE HURON. THERE IS A VERY FAVORABLE
SMALL SCALE MIDLEVEL THETA E RIDGE STRUCTURE THAT IS FORECASTED TO
ORGANIZE OVER SEMICHIGAN AT 21Z WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE. IT
REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO GO MUCH MORE THAN A CHANCE POP AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS A DRY TRAJECTORY FOR THE AREA...BUT EXPECTING
ENOUGH RADAR RETURNS TO WARRANT THE CHANCE/SCATTERED MENTION. WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...SURFACE WET BULB VALUES WILL BE IN
THE BALLPARK TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW PELLET TYPE HYDROMETEORS. AT THIS
STAGE WILL HONOR THE BULK PARAMETERS...OF WARMISH +8C SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND FREEZING HEIGHTS AT 3000 FT TO KEEP THE FORECAST
AS RAIN. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE HERE.
THE ONSLAUGHT OF DRY AIR ADVECTION AT THE MIDLEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH IN
ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING PER THE RAP AND NAM. SIDED WITH
THIS OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION BEFORE FILLING CLOUDS BACK IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE AND DEEP RIDGING
WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL YIELD COLD TEMPERATURES. DID NOT STRAY OFF OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE TUCKED BENEATH WEAKLY CONFLUENT WEST-NORTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN A DRY AND STABLE PROFILE ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THE FULL SUNSHINE...LIMITED MODERATION OF THE EXISTING AIR MASS WILL
LEAVE HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 40S. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SLIP TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WITHIN A VERY DRY
AMBIENT PROFILE WILL FAVOR FULL SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EMERGING LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INTRODUCE A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTIVE COMPONENT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL
INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT AN UPWARD TREND TO
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEFT BEHIND IN THE
WAKE OF TODAY/S MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. COMPACT
CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL ASCENT TIED TO THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE
INTO AT LEAST A PERIOD OF INCREASING MID CLOUD /MAINLY SOUTH/ DURING
THIS TIME. LITTLE EVIDENCE WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST
ANYTHING BEHIND A VERY LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE QUALITY OR ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS WAVE. MINOR POPS CONFINED GENERALLY
SOUTH OF AN ANN ARBOR TO DETROIT LINE REMAIN APPROPRIATE. TRANSIENT
CLOUD DECK WOULD ALLOW A HIGHER DEGREE OF INSOLATION TO EMERGE BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN DURING THIS
TIME...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. RENEWED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE INCREASING
INSOLATION POTENTIAL WILL SUPPORT AN INCREMENTAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENT
IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 6 TO 8 C
BY 00Z TUE EVENING. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
THE AFORMENTIONED INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC MID LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY. EXTENSIVE WING OF
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT TUCKED BENEATH STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK/WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ANCHOR AN
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
MODEL OUTPUT STILL CARRYING A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY OWING TO
BOTH DIFFERENCES IN BOTH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE AND POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN WAVE...LEAVING DIFFERENCES IN BOTH
TIMING ANS STRENGTH. WITH THAT SAID...OVERALL PATTERN POINTS TOWARD
AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CENTERED ON LATE WEDNESDAY/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ABSENT OF A GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE A
MORE SIZABLE WARMUP WITH DAYTIME READINGS BALLPARK 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL /LOW-MID 60S/.
MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW GENERALLY WITHIN THE 15 KNOT RANGE WILL
PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR FUNNELS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP
BY MONDAY WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW OF THIS SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
324 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS ODDLY HELD ON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS A VERY STRONG +160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET HAS
IMPEDED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE FOOTPRINT OF THE RIDGING HAS
BEEN SHRINKING STEADILY IN RESPONSE TO METHODICAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN ALMOST DUE WESTERLY FLOW. BLOCKED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN CWA AS OF 06Z. A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE OF THIS CVA HAS BEEN A BREAKING OFF OF SOME
LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WITH THE -DIV CENTER NOW
WORKING EASTWARD ON THE PREFERRED I-94 TRAJECTORY. ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL THETA E POOLED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR OF SUBTLE INCREASED
CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS. WITH IR IMAGERY SHOWING REGENERATION OF LAKE
CLOUD ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINES...DECIDED THERE
WAS ENOUGH IN FAVOR OF ADDING SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST BETWEEN
06-12Z.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET CORE OVERLYING THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...NE US...AND CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PULL EASTWARD TODAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEART OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME
POSITIONED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 18-00Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECASTED TO FALL FROM ROUGHLY -1C AND -3C THIS MORNING TO -3
AND -5 C BY THIS EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE STEADY CAA REGIME WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT OVER LAKE HURON. THERE IS A VERY FAVORABLE
SMALL SCALE MIDLEVEL THETA E RIDGE STRUCTURE THAT IS FORECASTED TO
ORGANIZE OVER SEMICHIGAN AT 21Z WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE. IT
REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO GO MUCH MORE THAN A CHANCE POP AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS A DRY TRAJECTORY FOR THE AREA...BUT EXPECTING
ENOUGH RADAR RETURNS TO WARRANT THE CHANCE/SCATTERED MENTION. WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...SURFACE WET BULB VALUES WILL BE IN
THE BALLPARK TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW PELLET TYPE HYDROMETEORS. AT THIS
STAGE WILL HONOR THE BULK PARAMETERS...OF WARMISH +8C SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND FREEZING HEIGHTS AT 3000 FT TO KEEP THE FORECAST
AS RAIN. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE HERE.
THE ONSLAUGHT OF DRY AIR ADVECTION AT THE MIDLEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH IN
ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING PER THE RAP AND NAM. SIDED WITH
THIS OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION BEFORE FILLING CLOUDS BACK IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE AND DEEP RIDGING
WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL YIELD COLD TEMPERATURES. DID NOT STRAY OFF OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE TUCKED BENEATH WEAKLY CONFLUENT WEST-NORTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN A DRY AND STABLE PROFILE ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THE FULL SUNSHINE...LIMITED MODERATION OF THE EXISTING AIR MASS WILL
LEAVE HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 40S. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SLIP TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WITHIN A VERY DRY
AMBIENT PROFILE WILL FAVOR FULL SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EMERGING LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INTRODUCE A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTIVE COMPONENT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL
INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT AN UPWARD TREND TO
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEFT BEHIND IN THE
WAKE OF TODAY/S MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. COMPACT
CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL ASCENT TIED TO THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE
INTO AT LEAST A PERIOD OF INCREASING MID CLOUD /MAINLY SOUTH/ DURING
THIS TIME. LITTLE EVIDENCE WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST
ANYTHING BEHIND A VERY LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE QUALITY OR ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS WAVE. MINOR POPS CONFINED GENERALLY
SOUTH OF AN ANN ARBOR TO DETROIT LINE REMAIN APPROPRIATE. TRANSIENT
CLOUD DECK WOULD ALLOW A HIGHER DEGREE OF INSOLATION TO EMERGE BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN DURING THIS
TIME...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. RENEWED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE INCREASING
INSOLATION POTENTIAL WILL SUPPORT AN INCREMENTAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENT
IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 6 TO 8 C
BY 00Z TUE EVENING. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
THE AFORMENTIONED INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC MID LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY. EXTENSIVE WING OF
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT TUCKED BENEATH STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK/WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ANCHOR AN
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
MODEL OUTPUT STILL CARRYING A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY OWING TO
BOTH DIFFERENCES IN BOTH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE AND POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN WAVE...LEAVING DIFFERENCES IN BOTH
TIMING ANS STRENGTH. WITH THAT SAID...OVERALL PATTERN POINTS TOWARD
AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CENTERED ON LATE WEDNESDAY/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ABSENT OF A GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE A
MORE SIZABLE WARMUP WITH DAYTIME READINGS BALLPARK 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL /LOW-MID 60S/.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW GENERALLY WITHIN THE 15 KNOT RANGE WILL
PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR FUNNELS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP
BY MONDAY WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW OF THIS SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1227 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
WESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT,
AS WILL BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CIGS. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
CLEARING AROUND SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ANY CASE, HIGH
MVFR/LOW VFR WILL REFORM WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 25 KTS WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT 11Z AND AFTER 17Z. LOW IN BETWEEN.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
926 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015
.UPDATE...
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FINALLY MOVING IN AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW OVER THE
NRN GULF GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE E/NE TONIGHT AND THE S/WV ALOFT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. MOISTURE TO THE WEST IS MUCH LOWER AROUND TO LESS
THAN A HALF ON AN INCH PW`S WHILE BETTER MOISTURE ABOVE AN INCH OR SO
PW`S IS E AND S OF THE REGION. THIS IS LEADING TO MORE ISENTROPIC
LIFT OFF TO THE E OF THE AREA AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL PRECIP. THUS
ADJUSTED BACK POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE E OF I-55 CORRIDOR. DUE TO
WEAKENING ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING MORE
NORTHERLY...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO THIN SOMEWHAT FROM THE W/E THROUGH
THE NIGHT WHILE AREAS ALONG/E OF I-55 WILL HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS HRRR INDICATED THIS THINNING TREND. DIDN`T GO
AS AGGRESSIVE ON THINNING CLOUDS AS THE HRRR AS ENOUGH FLOW/LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN
EVEN IF WE CLEAR OUT SOME MORE TONIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...FLOW AROUND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE NW
FL PANHANDLE CONTINUES SPREADING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MAJORITY OF TAF SITES THIS EVENING. WHERE
CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS EXIST. THESE CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z OVER SE SECTIONS OF THE AREA
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST
MONDAY MORNING...CLOUDS/CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE
WEST. /26/
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD A 1011MB LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF JUST SOUTH OF
MOBILE. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH MONDAY BUT MAINTAIN CLOUDS
AND LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED OVER OUR WEST AND THIS CLEARING LINE WILL
SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST. AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS STILL HAD A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ENE TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING BUT THE DRY AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AROUND THIS LOW WILL LIMIT ANY AFFECT ON OUR CWA. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN
THE MID 40S. MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE WEST BUT
DUE TO CLOUD COVER MORNING LOWS CENTRAL AND EAST WILL BOTTOM OUT A
LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS RUN AROUND 70F. COOLER THAN
NORMAL HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY DUE TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF
OUR REGION. NEAR NORMAL MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER OUR CWA WHILE OUR FLOW ALOFT
BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG INSOLATION WILL AID THE
WARM UP. LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22/
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST IN MOVING CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS MOVES THE ACTIVITY INTO OUR CWA DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
OVERALL...PARAMETERS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE
LIMITING FACTORS BEING THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MEAGER LAPSE
RATES. EVEN WITH THESE FACTORS CONSIDERED LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL
CHECKLISTS FOR SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERNS POINTS TO AT LEAST A LIMITED
CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND WL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN OUR HWO. /22/
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE STILL
PAINTING A LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A LOW CAPE AND HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF THE REGION
AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. 0-3KM SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER
OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE AS A POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
LINE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. 0-1 KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS...SO WE MAY BE
LOOKING AT SOME ROTATING STORMS WITH SOME WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THE
925MB WINDS WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS WITH 65-70F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. CIPS CWASP PAINTS ~60 ACROSS THE REGION AS THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH TAKES A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE
REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR.
WE WILL GET BACK TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK FOR COOLER
TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
/17/22/
AVIATION...FLIGHT CATEGORIES RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS CLOUDS
REMAIN A FIXTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE
CASE ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE EVENING...AND REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 50 66 47 73 / 11 3 3 4
MERIDIAN 50 66 46 73 / 20 8 4 4
VICKSBURG 48 66 45 75 / 3 2 3 4
HATTIESBURG 53 70 49 76 / 19 3 3 4
NATCHEZ 51 66 49 74 / 3 2 3 4
GREENVILLE 47 65 46 72 / 4 4 3 4
GREENWOOD 50 65 45 73 / 12 6 4 4
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
232 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...AND THEN OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM FRIDAY...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR
WEST...STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
A COLD FRONT WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT FROM PITTSBURGH TO NASHVILLE TO
LITTLE ROCK. PREFRONTAL TROUGHING SHOWS UP IN SURFACE OBS JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL ALABAMA TO UPSTATE SC. THE
LATTER MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT..AS
THE HRRR SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AFTER 09Z...POTENTIALLY AIDED BY SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE A WEAKENING INVERSION ABOVE 925MB (PER KGSO/KFFC
RAOBS). THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS STILL WEAK AND SHALLOW...SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS STILL A LITTLE SHAKY AND
THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY THUNDER SEEM VERY LOW. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO
12Z. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH PLENTY OF
STRATUS AND MILE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS...BUT EVEN THE LATTER
MODEL...ALONG WITH THE LATEST ECMWF...MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PROGRESSION EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT THE
FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE FRONT
SEEMS TO OUTRUN ITS UPPER SUPPORT...WITH JET SUPPORT STAYING NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BEING WELL POST-FRONTAL. IN THIS
SITUATION WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED FRONT THERE IS A LITTLE CONCERN
THAT THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS COULD BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION...BUT
ALL OF THE TYPICAL NWP GUIDANCE ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DELAYS MUCH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE AND
THERE WILL ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES AT BEST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL LOCATIONS LIKELY-TO-CATEGORICAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS K INDICES FALL TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS TO SINGLE FIGURES AT
BEST...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AT OR BELOW AN INCH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY NOTE MODEST INSTABILITY...AND COMPUTED CAPE
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS REGISTER...AT BEST...100 TO 200J/KG IN
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ALSO
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW A
GRADUAL FALL WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
LIKELY TOWARD THE TRIAD WHERE VALUES NEAR 70 AROUND LUNCH TIME COULD
BE ONLY IN THE MID 50S BY 7 OR 8 PM. AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
EXPECT A FEW NOCTURNAL WIND GUSTS AT LEAST TO AROUND 20KT WITH 925MB
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30KT OVERNIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FOR MINS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR NOVEMBER 7. HOWEVER...EVENING COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 7 OCCURRING
AT MIDNIGHT...WITH PROBABLY ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THE RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM OF 65 AT FAYETTEVILLE...FROM 2003...BEING APPROACHED.
LEANING TOWARD THE MAV WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESS TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...A COOL MORNING TO
START SUNDAY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE
MID 50S NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
SUNDAY...COMING SOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE REFLECTION OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SKIM ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON
MONDAY...AND MOVE NE PARALLEL TO THE U.S. COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE COASTAL LOW. MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY...AND WHILE
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO BE DRY.
THERE WILL BE A STEADY INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY TO
WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY MAY START OFF DRY...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...BUT THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH CENTRAL NC AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE
FROM THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW AT THIS POINT...
BUT EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WELL BELOW VFR AND IN SOME CASES LIFR ALREADY
IN THE TRIAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
LOW CEILINGS...BUT ALSO LOW VISIBILITY AND FOG LATER THIS MORNING.
ONLY PATCHES OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION WELL OFF TO THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF
RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A COUPLE WAVES MOVE OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD SHOULD ARRIVE
IN THE TRIAD AROUND 12Z AND THEN EXITING OUT THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CWA AFTER 3Z SUNDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BUT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
THEY WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND RAMP UP TO 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO
20-25 KTS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM: A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG TERM WITH SUNDAY
GENERALLY OK...FOLLOWED BY AN INSITU DAMMING SITUATION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER DRYING PERIOD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/22
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
231 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM FRIDAY...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR
WEST...STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
A COLD FRONT WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT FROM PITTSBURGH TO NASHVILLE TO
LITTLE ROCK. PREFRONTAL TROUGHING SHOWS UP IN SURFACE OBS JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL ALABAMA TO UPSTATE SC. THE
LATTER MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT..AS
THE HRRR SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AFTER 09Z...POTENTIALLY AIDED BY SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE A WEAKENING INVERSION ABOVE 925MB (PER KGSO/KFFC
RAOBS). THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS STILL WEAK AND SHALLOW...SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS STILL A LITTLE SHAKY AND
THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY THUNDER SEEM VERY LOW. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO
12Z. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH PLENTY OF
STRATUS AND MILE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS...BUT EVEN THE LATTER
MODEL...ALONG WITH THE LATEST ECMWF...MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PROGRESSION EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT THE
FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE FRONT
SEEMS TO OUTRUN ITS UPPER SUPPORT...WITH JET SUPPORT STAYING NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BEING WELL POST-FRONTAL. IN THIS
SITUATION WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED FRONT THERE IS A LITTLE CONCERN
THAT THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS COULD BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION...BUT
ALL OF THE TYPICAL NWP GUIDANCE ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DELAYS MUCH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE AND
THERE WILL ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES AT BEST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL LOCATIONS LIKELY-TO-CATEGORICAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS K INDICES FALL TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS TO SINGLE FIGURES AT
BEST...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AT OR BELOW AN INCH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY NOTE MODEST INSTABILITY...AND COMPUTED CAPE
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS REGISTER...AT BEST...100 TO 200J/KG IN
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ALSO
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW A
GRADUAL FALL WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
LIKELY TOWARD THE TRIAD WHERE VALUES NEAR 70 AROUND LUNCH TIME COULD
BE ONLY IN THE MID 50S BY 7 OR 8 PM. AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
EXPECT A FEW NOCTURNAL WIND GUSTS AT LEAST TO AROUND 20KT WITH 925MB
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30KT OVERNIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FOR MINS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR NOVEMBER 7. HOWEVER...EVENING COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 7 OCCURRING
AT MIDNIGHT...WITH PROBABLY ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THE RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM OF 65 AT FAYETTEVILLE...FROM 2003...BEING APPROACHED.
LEANING TOWARD THE MAV WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESS TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...A COOL MORNING TO
START SUNDAY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE
MID 50S NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
SUNDAY...COMING SOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE REFLECTION OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SKIM ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON
MONDAY...AND MOVE NE PARALLEL TO THE U.S. COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE COASTAL LOW. MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY...AND WHILE
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO BE DRY.
THERE WILL BE A STEADY INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY TO
WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY MAY START OFF DRY...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...BUT THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH CENTRAL NC AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE
FROM THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW AT THIS POINT...
BUT EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WELL BELOW VFR AND IN SOME CASES LIFR ALREADY
IN THE TRIAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
LOW CEILINGS...BUT ALSO LOW VISIBILITY AND FOG LATER THIS MORNING.
ONLY PATCHES OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION WELL OFF TO THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF
RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A COUPLE WAVES MOVE OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD SHOULD ARRIVE
IN THE TRIAD AROUND 12Z AND THEN EXITING OUT THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CWA AFTER 3Z SUNDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BUT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
THEY WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND RAMP UP TO 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO
20-25 KTS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM: A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG TERM WITH SUNDAY
GENERALLY OK...FOLLOWED BY AN INSITU DAMMING SITUATION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER DRYING PERIOD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/22
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
109 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY AND SLIDE OFFSHORE MONDAY AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OFFSHORE
OF THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT STILL BACK IN THE TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT. THINK
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAWN PER LATEST
3KM HRRR MODEL AND WILL KEEP VERY LOW POPS WELL INLAND THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH MILD LOWS
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SAG SE CROSSING NRN TIER SAT
AFTN. DEEP MOISTURE ALONG/JUST BEHIND FRONT AND CONT PREV FCST OF
CAT POPS DEVELOPING NW TIER IN AFTN WITH SLIGHT CHC/CHC FAR SE
TIER. WILL BE VERY MILD AHEAD OF FRONT WITH SRN TIER AGAIN
REACHING LOWER 80S...TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO DROP QUICKLY LATE FAR N.
CONT SLIGHT CHC TSRA MENTION AS SHLD SEE SOME WEAK INSTAB DEVELOP
IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH E NC
EARLY IN THE EVENING...THOUGH ANAFRONT SITUATION DEVELOPS AS
850MB FRONT HANGING BACK WITH OVERRUNNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THUNDER THREAT WANES BY EVENING AS
STABLE LOW LEVELS DEVELOP. COLUMN DRIES BY LATE NIGHT AS 850MB
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH CAA ENSUING AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF OF
THE COAST. LOWS: LOW 50S INLAND TO UPR 50S OBX.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: MODEL CONSENSUS IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH
HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO E NC WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER WITH GUSTY NNE WINDS AND DRASTICALLY LOWERED THICKNESSES.
HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S/LOWER 60S. CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY
LATE SUN NIGHT SOUTHERN AREAS AS 925-700MB WAA DEVELOPS WITH
BUILDING THICKNESSES. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S INLAND
TO UPR 50S OBX.
MONDAY: A PIECE OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT PASSED
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH
SFC HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING WEDGE TYPE SCENARIO
WITH OVERRUNNING COMMENCING...BRINGING AT LEAST AN INCREASE AND
THICKENING OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN LOOKS TO BEGIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION WITH MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERING BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. CMC
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH STRONG LIFT ARRIVING AS EARLY AS MON
MORNING...THOUGH REST OF MODEL SUITE DELAYS ONSET OF RAIN UNTIL
MON AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON
ARRIVAL...HAVE A GENERAL INCREASING POP TREND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ARRIVING SRN AREAS BY MON
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.
THESE TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IF PRECIP MOVES IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY: THIS PERIOD FEATURES THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
RAIN...AS MOST MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSES
THE REGION AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS FORMATION OFF THE COAST.
DETERMINISTIC GFS IS DRIEST AS IT DOES NOT DEVELOP A SFC LOW
REFLECTION AS OPPOSED TO THE ECM/CMC WHICH INDICATE A LOW MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND OFF THE SE COAST. WILL INC POPS
TO LIKELY SRN AND EASTERN AREAS MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL ZONES IF IN FACT SFC
CYCLONE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST. A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF
COULD OCCUR AS WELL WITH GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
DEEP LAYER LIFT ON COOL SIDE OF THE LOW. LOWS MON NIGHT: MID 50S
INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS TUE: UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT: THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION AND DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THICKNESSES
REMAIN HIGH SO TEMPS STILL MILD. LOWS: MID 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S
ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MAINLY DRY WITH
SUBSIDENCE ENSUING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND BROAD HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH TEMPS AS
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ABOVE
CLIMO. HIGHS: 70-75. LOWS: 55-60.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: 06/12Z MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. NEXT
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR THUR OR THUR NIGHT IN PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
WILL HEDGE BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND ILLUSTRATE RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THIS
TIME NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE QUICK
RETURN FLOW NOT BEING ABLE TO TAP MOISTURE...THOUGH WILL HANG ONTO
A 20 POP SHOULD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOW MORE THAN EXPECTED. HIGHS
THURSDAY MID/UPR 70S AND LOWS UPR 50S/LOW 60S. HIGHS A BIT COOLER
FRIDAY BEHIND FRONT IN THE LOW 70S BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN MAINLY STRATUS. CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT...THEN
WILL LOWS AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES BEHIND FRONT WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE N/NE WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND 1000 FEET AND
VSBYS DROPPING TO AROUND 4-5 MILES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TERMINALS SAT
NIGHT, WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREADING E NC THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
ANOTHER THREAT FOR IFR CONDITIONS. A BRIEF REPRIEVE IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS EARLY AS MON AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE. CONDITIONS AGAIN COULD BECOME SUB VFR WITH THE RAIN.
DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR WED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SAT/...
AS OF 1 AM SATURDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT MARINE FORECAST.
WINDS CONTINUE MOSTLY SW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FEET AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NRN TIER
LATE IN THE DAY AND EXPECT GOOD SURGE OF N WINDS TO SPREAD S
DURING THE EVENING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR ALL WATERS AND BOTH SOUNDS
AND ALLIGATOR RIVER STARTING SAT EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY N
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT SAT EVENING WITH STRONG CAA SURGE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SCA WINDS 20-30 KT AND SEAS 6-9
FEET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SUN NIGHT INTO MON THOUGH HIGH SEAS
WILL LINGER. WINDS MAY INC A BIT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
A POTENTIAL LOW PRES AREA MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THE 06/12Z
WAVEWATCH IV INDICATES 6+ FOOT SEAS CONTINUING INTO WED THOUGH
THINK IT IS OVERDONE WITH WINDS MIDWEEK.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL/LEP
AVIATION...CTC/JBM/TL
MARINE...CTC/JBM/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
204 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING...AND THEN OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM FRIDAY...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR
WEST...STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
A COLD FRONT WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT FROM PITTSBURGH TO NASHVILLE TO
LITTLE ROCK. PREFRONTAL TROUGHING SHOWS UP IN SURFACE OBS JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL ALABAMA TO UPSTATE SC. THE
LATTER MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT..AS
THE HRRR SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AFTER 09Z...POTENTIALLY AIDED BY SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE A WEAKENING INVERSION ABOVE 925MB (PER KGSO/KFFC
RAOBS). THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS STILL WEAK AND SHALLOW...SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS STILL A LITTLE SHAKY AND
THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY THUNDER SEEM VERY LOW. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO
12Z. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH PLENTY OF
STRATUS AND MILE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS...BUT EVEN THE LATTER
MODEL...ALONG WITH THE LATEST ECMWF...MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PROGRESSION EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT THE
FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE FRONT
SEEMS TO OUTRUN ITS UPPER SUPPORT...WITH JET SUPPORT STAYING NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BEING WELL POST-FRONTAL. IN THIS
SITUATION WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED FRONT THERE IS A LITTLE CONCERN
THAT THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS COULD BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION...BUT
ALL OF THE TYPICAL NWP GUIDANCE ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DELAYS MUCH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE AND
THERE WILL ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES AT BEST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL LOCATIONS LIKELY-TO-CATEGORICAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS K INDICES FALL TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS TO SINGLE FIGURES AT
BEST...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AT OR BELOW AN INCH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY NOTE MODEST INSTABILITY...AND COMPUTED CAPE
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS REGISTER...AT BEST...100 TO 200J/KG IN
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ALSO
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW A
GRADUAL FALL WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
LIKELY TOWARD THE TRIAD WHERE VALUES NEAR 70 AROUND LUNCH TIME COULD
BE ONLY IN THE MID 50S BY 7 OR 8 PM. AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
EXPECT A FEW NOCTURNAL WIND GUSTS AT LEAST TO AROUND 20KT WITH 925MB
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30KT OVERNIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FOR MINS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR NOVEMBER 7. HOWEVER...EVENING COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 7 OCCURRING
AT MIDNIGHT...WITH PROBABLY ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THE RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM OF 65 AT FAYETTEVILLE...FROM 2003...BEING APPROACHED.
LEANING TOWARD THE MAV WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESS TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...A COOL MORNING TO
START SUNDAY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE
MID 50S NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH AND SETTLING JUST OFF THE NC COAST AND ACROSS GA/SC AS A
PROGRESSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. NWP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
DRIER ON SUNDAY AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TOUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE GUSTO.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A GOOD SURGE OF DRY AIR TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS A 1032MB HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHALLOW
STRATO-CUMULUS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
IT WILL BE CHILLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S... ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A STIRRING OF THE WIND SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION APPEARS IN THE OFFING FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LINGERING COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
RETREAT WESTWARD AS AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IN THE MO VALLEY MOVES
EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT. WHILE DETAILS AMONG THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE SETS VARY...AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND SC COAST
MONDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
POPS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH THE GREATEST POPS
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE SHEARING SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIFT
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASING.
WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ENDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CAD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE FAVORED
DAMMING REGION ALTHOUGH THEY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE.
EXPECT SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE THE MAIN DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WELL BELOW VFR AND IN SOME CASES LIFR ALREADY
IN THE TRIAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
LOW CEILINGS...BUT ALSO LOW VISIBILITY AND FOG LATER THIS MORNING.
ONLY PATCHES OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION WELL OFF TO THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF
RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A COUPLE WAVES MOVE OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD SHOULD ARRIVE
IN THE TRIAD AROUND 12Z AND THEN EXITING OUT THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CWA AFTER 3Z SUNDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BUT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
THEY WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND RAMP UP TO 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO
20-25 KTS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM: A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG TERM WITH SUNDAY
GENERALLY OK...FOLLOWED BY AN INSITU DAMMING SITUATION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER DRYING PERIOD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/22
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1217 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
NO CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
NO CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS EAST. NICE FALL DAY FOR
SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 701 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 20S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UPPER TEENS SOUTHWEST
WHERE SFC DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 15F
OVERNIGHT. SUNNY AND WARMER SATURDAY!
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SWINGING THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BISMARCK AND MINOT
RADARS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS CENTRAL THAT SHOULD END THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL CLOUD FORECAST SHOWS THE CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREES THIS EVENING AS H850 WARM ADVECTION ERODES
WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS. SATURDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
AFTER MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXPECT
A COOLING TREND WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING SYSTEMS RESIDING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
POTENTIALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES.
UPPER RIDGE/HEIGHTS FLATTEN SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM
WEST COAST TROUGH THAT SPLITS AS IT CROSSES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/LOWER THICKNESSES COMMENCE MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM PASSING EITHER
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA PER GFS...OR EVEN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS
PER ECMWF. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST AN H85 COLD POCKET OF -4C BEING DRAWN
INTO AND HOVERING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD INITIALLY SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGING TO
SNOW TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GFS CONTINUES WITH A MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION FIELD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA GIVEN THE OVERALL NORTHERN
TRAJECTORY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION FIELD ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN BORDER AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...THEN THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING
ANALYSIS IN TERMS OF SNOW SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES
FROM DICKINSON TO BISMARCK AND EAST INTO JAMESTOWN...FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW/MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT PER GFS AND ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
940 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK SYSTEM
PASSES ON TUESDAY WITH A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE... ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS A BIT BLENDING
IN LATEST HRRR AS LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE EXITING EAST. ALSO PUT IN SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL A
POSSIBILITY THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS IN AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN
LATE TONIGHT...FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BEST
RADIATION ON THE WESTERN FLANK. GFS MOS SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS
BEST...SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO IT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST BY MONDAY. AS A RESULT...
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY...ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY...
AND THEN PUSH EAST MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES...
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES LATE MONDAY...BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST PORTIONS OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES HAVE A DECENT
CHANCE OF GETTING MEASURABLE RAIN...SO HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ERODES AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTH. GFS
AND EURO HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON MOVING A COLORADO LOW THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DRAPE
A FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCE FOR
POPS THOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THIS FRONT PRECIPITATION WISE HAS
BEEN BROADLY WASHED OUT FROM RUN TO RUN. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SWLY JET
FAVORS BROAD SCALE DYNAMICS WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS OVER A BROAD AREA WHICH MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
THE TIME GETS CLOSER...SO HAVE INCREASED WIND FORECAST ACCORDINGLY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOME RESTRICTIONS IN IFR/MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A FEW MVFR SHOWERS AS WELL.
EXPECT THE CLOUD DECK TO RISE THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CUMULUS
FORMING. THE CUMULUS WILL GRADUALLY RISING TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS RISING THIS MORNING
COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
SOME IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN COOLER AIR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
915 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AFTER PROVIDING A MILD AND SUNNY DAY TODAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD ONSHORE SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DOWN TO
THE CASCADE PASSES BY THE TIME SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER
A BRIEF DRYING TREND TUESDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BRING MORE RAIN AT TIMES FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MARCH THROUGH THE PAC NW.
&&
.EVENING UPDATE...A HEALTHY SERVING OF CROW WAS ON THE DINNER TABLE
FOR THIS FORECASTER THIS EVENING...AS VALLEY INVERSIONS BROKE MUCH
MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DECENT MIXING
ALLOWED TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON...JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
A POORLY ORGANIZED COLD FRONT CAN BE SEEN OFFSHORE ON LATEST INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SLOWLY APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY MOVE ONSHORE IN PIECES SAT/SAT NIGHT...WITH THE SFC FRONT
SOMEWHAT DETACHED FROM THE BEST FORCING ALOFT. ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY STALL IT
FURTHER...HOLDING RAIN OFF THE COAST OF OUR CWA UNTIL JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE SAT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDEED KEEP ASTORIA DRY
UNTIL AROUND 6 AM SAT...WITH RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL 9 TO 11 AM FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THEREFORE THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SAT MAY BE
DRY INLAND...BUT MODELS SHOW DECENT CONSENSUS THAT THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE WET. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL...
THUS VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THE MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO SLOW IN
BRINGING DOWN SNOW LEVELS SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE TRIES TO TAKE
ON A BIT OF AN ANAFRONTAL SIGNATURE. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW GOOD
CONSENSUS ON HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY FOR THE SNOW LEVEL TO REACH THE
CASCADE PASSES...OUR FORECAST AND SPS REFLECT THIS WELL SO NO CHANGES
WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. WEAGLE
/PREV DISC ISSUED 303 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2015/
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SKIES CLEARED OUT MUCH OF THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING WHICH RESULTED IN A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH MANY
LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE 60S FOR A SEASONABLY WARM DAY. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAINING IN
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COAST RANGE AND NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER IN
SW WASHINGTON. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE REPLACED
BY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
LATEST FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT...PRESENTLY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BACK TO THE SW
ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. AS A RESULT...TRENDED THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL AS
PRECIPITATION BY SEVERAL HOURS. KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH
COAST FOR TONIGHT A LEADING IMPULSE MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
INITIALLY. THEN EXPECT THE MAIN LINE OF STEADY RAIN TO REACH THE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND PUSHING
INTO THE INTERIOR AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASES AS
THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STEADY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING OR NIGHT WHEN THE SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE INCH IN
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT ENTERS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH SNOW LEVELS SHARPLY
LOWERING FROM AROUND 7500 FT ON SATURDAY TO NEAR 3500 FT SUNDAY.
EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES ON THE CASCADE PASSES
FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY....WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES. DESPITE THESE AMOUNTS FALLING SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THOSE WITH PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE CASCADES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SHOULD BE PREPARED. SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT /SPSPQR/
ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR DETAILS.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OFFSHORE AND MOVES OVER THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AIDED BY THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING IN THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...AND THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAY HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
OF THESE TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT HAVE NOT EXTENDED THE
COVERAGE AT THIS TIME AS IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY BE LIMITING
FACTORS BY THIS POINT. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN PUSHES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
EXTEND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CULLEN
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION LATE MONDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
TUESDAY. COULD ALSO SEE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VALLEY FOG TUESDAY
MORNING IF CLOUDS CLEAR ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
SO WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. RAIN RETURNS WEDNESDAY
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE WET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
WE COULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN THE RAIN THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CASCADE SNOW LIKELY
CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. /64
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF IFR FOG/LOW STRATUS IN
THE INLAND VALLEYS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PORTLAND. UPS FOG FORECAST
METHOD INDICATES KEUG AND KHIO ARE THE FAVORABLE SPOTS FOR IFR FOG
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. THICKER CLOUDS EARLY AT
SHOULD STOP FOG FORMATION AND PERHAPS HELP DISSIPATE THE FOG.
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COAST LATE TONIGHT
AND SPREAD INLAND AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY...LIKELY NOT AFFECTING THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TAF SITES MUCH UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL BRING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND BREEZES WITH IT...AS
WELL AS MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST AND LOW VFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN
MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY. OFFSHORE
FLOW FROM THE GORGE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS NOT VERY
STRONG AND MAY CUT OFF TEMPORARILY FOR A THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT FRONTAL CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE A CHANCE OF LOWERING
TO MVFR WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MH PT
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS SPREADING SOUTH TONIGHT. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
WE WILL SEE GALE GUSTS AS THE CORE OF THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING THE GALES WINDS TO AN END.
SEAS MAY REACH 10 FT WITH THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THE CORE OF THE STRONGER WINDS MOVES THROUGH. THE WAVE MODELS THEN
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONGER PERIOD SWELL OF 12 TO 14 FT SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NOT DECREASING
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. 00Z ENP WAVE MODEL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK WITH THIS LONGER SWELL TRAIN. BUOY 46184 LOCATED NEAR 54N
139W MATCHES WELL WITH 06/18Z ENP WAVE. MH PT
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
10 AM TO 6 PM PST SATURDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
407 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE FRONT AND BRING CHILLY AND WET CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME MID WEEK DRYING IS
EXPECTED BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2110 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED PER RADAR TRENDS...WITH AN
INCREASE ALONG THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...RESULTING IN MINOR DECREASES...MAINLY IN THE
EAST.
AS OF 215 PM EST SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE NC HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME. PER
LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS...PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING STARTING TO MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA WHILE NEW DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INTRUDING FRONT. A MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS OF THE REGION INDICATES LITTLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY AT OR LESS THAN
500J/KG. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THIS IMPROVED A TAD THIS AFTERNOON
AS SOME BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER WILL LEAD TO MINOR DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85. THUS...THE FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FEATURES CAT POPS ALONG THE
MTNS...TAPERING TO LIKELY LEVELS EAST WITH A MENTION OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED TS FOR THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT EAST OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL YIELD NORTHERLY VEERING FLOW AS A HYBRID
DAMMING EVENT TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF. H85 FLOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUALLY VEER WITH TIME AS THE H85 RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE LEADING TO INCREASED UPGLIDE POTENTIAL ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING WEDGE. THUS...THE FCST FEATURES MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NC...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NC NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85...INCREASING
SOUTHWARD TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE LAKELANDS. TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH
MAX/MIN...WITH SOME MID/UPPER 30S FEATURED OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...A FOUR CORNERS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSOURI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
SWLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA)...AND INCREASE...DRAWING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH. DEEP MOISTURE WILL NEVER BE FAR AWAY. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL START A PUSH OF SHOWERS FROM OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...
NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO OVERRUN A SURFACE
COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...ALTHOUGH A FLY IN FORECAST IS THE
SURFACING TROFFING WHICH THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SEABOARD...OR LOW PRESSURE COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER...HAS SOME BACKING
FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL. THE GFS ESSENTIALLY TAKES THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION EAST. WE HAVE GIVEN MORE WEIGHT ON THE FORMER TWO
MODELS...BUT NOT FULL THROTTLE. AS A RESULT HIGHER CHANCES...TO
LOWER LIKELY POPS IN OUR EASTERN FA MONDAY. THESE NUMBERS MIGHT
HAVE TO BE RAISED...BUT WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION THE GFS AND ARE
WAITING TO SEE IF IT COMES ABOARD.
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION MONDAY WILL BE RAW.
AS THE OVERALL UPGLIDE...AND ANY ENERGY ALOFT SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY...
AND SURFACE TROFFING SHIFTS EAST...POPS GRADUALLY LOWER. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND AS THE WEDGE CONFIGURATION EASES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EST SATURDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE GUIDANCE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
WITH SOME CONTINUED MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES. SHORT WAVE RIDGING
MOVES IN EARLY IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER
THE UPPER MID WEST. THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAGS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY SETS UP
THU NITE BEFORE YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW PASSES BY WELL TO OUR NORTH
DRAGGING A SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS THE AREA FRI NITE INTO SAT. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ON WED BEFORE THE FIRST UPPER
LOW HELPS PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE THU TIME
FRAME. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE IN THE WAY OF SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT THAN PREV FCSTS. HOWEVER...THE QUICK MOVEMENT KEEPS THE SLY
FLOW FROM SIGNIFICANTLY TAPPING GULF OR ATLANTIC MOISTURE...BUT PW
VALUES ON FROM THE GEFS MEAN DO INCREASE TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY FCST WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT
WITH THE INCREASED WIND PROFILES...ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WOULD BEAR
WATCHING. AFTER FROPA...COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRI AND
SAT. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED...FALL TO NEAR NORMAL THU THEN BELOW
NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT. LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND AND COULD RESULT
IN FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR SAT NITE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE AS THE FCST CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHRA WITH PATCHES OF IFR CIGS WARRANT EXTRA LINES
IN THE TAF. INITIALIZED TAF WITH IFR CIGS AND SHRA BEFORE THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP SLIDES EAST LEADING TO REMOVAL OF SUCH WITHIN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. LATEST CAM GUID FAVORS ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
POSSIBLE TS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ACTUAL FRONTAL AXIS PUSHES
INTO THE PIEDMONT...THUS TAF FEATURES REINTRODUCTION OF SHRA AND
MVFR CIGS AT 00Z WITH NO TS MENTION AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BEYOND THAT
GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR WITH WINDS VEERED NORTHERLY AND GUSTY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE WITH SLIGHT TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS GIVEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR WHICH DOES SHOW POSSIBLE THUNDER
PRODUCING CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT...DID INCLUDE VCTS MENTION AT
KGSP/KGMU THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LEFT FROM ALL OTHER SITES AS
CONFIDENCE WAINS WITH TIME. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AT ALL SITES
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS MIXING DOWN BY BY MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER MOIST SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOW CLOUDS AGAIN SEEN OVER THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 98% HIGH 96% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE FRONT AND BRING CHILLY AND WET CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME MID WEEK DRYING IS
EXPECTED BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE NC HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME. PER
LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS...PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING STARTING TO MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA WHILE NEW DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INTRUDING FRONT. A MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS OF THE REGION INDICATES LITTLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY AT OR LESS THAN
500J/KG. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THIS IMPROVED A TAD THIS AFTERNOON
AS SOME BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER WILL LEAD TO MINOR DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85. THUS...THE FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FEATURES CAT POPS ALONG THE
MTNS...TAPERING TO LIKELY LEVELS EAST WITH A MENTION OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED TS FOR THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT EAST OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL YIELD NORTHERLY VEERING FLOW AS A HYBRID
DAMMING EVENT TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF. H85 FLOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUALLY VEER WITH TIME AS THE H85 RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE LEADING TO INCREASED UPGLIDE POTENTIAL ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING WEDGE. THUS...THE FCST FEATURES MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NC...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NC NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85...INCREASING
SOUTHWARD TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE LAKELANDS. TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH
MAX/MIN...WITH SOME MID/UPPER 30S FEATURED OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...A FOUR CORNERS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSOURI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
SWLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA)...AND INCREASE...DRAWING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH. DEEP MOISTURE WILL NEVER BE FAR AWAY. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL START A PUSH OF SHOWERS FROM OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...
NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO OVERRUN A SURFACE
COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...ALTHOUGH A FLY IN FORECAST IS THE
SURFACING TROFFING WHICH THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SEABOARD...OR LOW PRESSURE COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER...HAS SOME BACKING
FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL. THE GFS ESSENTIALLY TAKES THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION EAST. WE HAVE GIVEN MORE WEIGHT ON THE FORMER TWO
MODELS...BUT NOT FULL THROTTLE. AS A RESULT HIGHER CHANCES...TO
LOWER LIKELY POPS IN OUR EASTERN FA MONDAY. THESE NUMBERS MIGHT
HAVE TO BE RAISED...BUT WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION THE GFS AND ARE
WAITING TO SEE IF IT COMES ABOARD.
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION MONDAY WILL BE RAW.
AS THE OVERALL UPGLIDE...AND ANY ENERGY ALOFT SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY...
AND SURFACE TROFFING SHIFTS EAST...POPS GRADUALLY LOWER. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND AS THE WEDGE CONFIGURATION EASES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EST SATURDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE GUIDANCE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
WITH SOME CONTINUED MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES. SHORT WAVE RIDGING
MOVES IN EARLY IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER
THE UPPER MID WEST. THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAGS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY SETS UP
THU NITE BEFORE YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW PASSES BY WELL TO OUR NORTH
DRAGGING A SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS THE AREA FRI NITE INTO SAT. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ON WED BEFORE THE FIRST UPPER
LOW HELPS PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE THU TIME
FRAME. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE IN THE WAY OF SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT THAN PREV FCSTS. HOWEVER...THE QUICK MOVEMENT KEEPS THE SLY
FLOW FROM SIGNIFICANTLY TAPPING GULF OR ATLANTIC MOISTURE...BUT PW
VALUES ON FROM THE GEFS MEAN DO INCREASE TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY FCST WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT
WITH THE INCREASED WIND PROFILES...ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WOULD BEAR
WATCHING. AFTER FROPA...COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRI AND
SAT. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED...FALL TO NEAR NORMAL THU THEN BELOW
NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT. LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND AND COULD RESULT
IN FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR SAT NITE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE AS THE FCST CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHRA WITH PATCHES OF IFR CIGS WARRANT EXTRA LINES
IN THE TAF. INITIALIZED TAF WITH IFR CIGS AND SHRA BEFORE THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP SLIDES EAST LEADING TO REMOVAL OF SUCH WITHIN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. LATEST CAM GUID FAVORS ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
POSSIBLE TS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ACTUAL FRONTAL AXIS PUSHES
INTO THE PIEDMONT...THUS TAF FEATURES REINTRODUCTION OF SHRA AND
MVFR CIGS AT 00Z WITH NO TS MENTION AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BEYOND THAT
GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR WITH WINDS VEERED NORTHERLY AND GUSTY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE WITH SLIGHT TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS GIVEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR WHICH DOES SHOW POSSIBLE THUNDER
PRODUCING CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT...DID INCLUDE VCTS MENTION AT
KGSP/KGMU THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LEFT FROM ALL OTHER SITES AS
CONFIDENCE WAINS WITH TIME. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AT ALL SITES
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS MIXING DOWN BY BY MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER MOIST SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOW CLOUDS AGAIN SEEN OVER THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z
KCLT HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1252 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE FRONT AND BRING
CHILLY AND WET CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME
MID WEEK DRYING IS EXPECTED BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST SATURDAY...CONTINUING TO MONITOR PREFRONTAL PRECIP
EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST...WHILE THE PRIMARY FRONTAL AXIS
ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
ENHANCED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOW TERRAIN...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS INSTABILITY WILL BE AT A PREMIUM. THUS THINK
ANY THUNDER WILL BE MOSTLY ELEVATED...IF AT ALL.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED T/TD AND POPS ONCE AGAIN TO REFLECT LATEST
OBS/RADAR AND LEFT THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM UNCHANGED. FULL UPDATE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 245 AM...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIED TO THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. AS OF 7Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN TN. WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH PATCHES OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE
EXISTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT. THROUGH DAYBREAK...A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL PUSH NE ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR FROM
NE GA ACROSS THE UPSTATE. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE AROUND ONE INCH
BY SUNRISE. SHRAS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MTNS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST 80 TO 100 POPS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN WILL TREND POPS LOWER FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO HALF INCH UP TO THE
NC/SC LINE. AREAS ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD
SEE .3 TO .4 OF AN INCH.
LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
FOOTHILLS...REACHING THE CLT METRO AREA BETWEEN 15Z TO 17Z. I WILL
INDICATE SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH -SHRA AND A WINDOW OF
TSRA DURING FROPA. BY MID AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE
NNW AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 MPH...CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT AND CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL CHALLENGING ACROSS THE
MTNS TODAY. H85 CAA WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE MTNS BY 15Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURE WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS MAY
REMAIN STEADY IN THE LOW 60S...COOLING INTO THE 50S BY SUNSET. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF I-85 ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...SKY COVER WILL DECREASE AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
SOURCED FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ONGOING
H85 CAA WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS C ACROSS
THE MTNS. USING A BLEND OF MOS...LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOW 40S WITHIN
THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MTNS...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S NEAR HICKORY TO THE LOW 50S AROUND GREENWOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING FROM THE
OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
SOUTH OF THE REGION. A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN VERY DRY CONDITIONS NEAR INTERSTATE 40 AND
THE NRN TIER...BUT CONTINUED MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE WARRANTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE CONTINUED CLOUDS SOUTH.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST DOWNSTREAM OF A 500 MB LOW CENTER CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NE AND PHASE BACK IN
OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE NE HIGH CENTER BECOMES A BIT TRANSITORY WITH TIME...THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA SHOULD STILL BECOME FAIRLY ENTRENCHED IN
COLD AIR DAMMING. THIS WILL MEAN REASONABLY HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG
WITH CHILLY MAX TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MON AFTN. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAD...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION AT PRESENT. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE AROUND
ONE HALF INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS...SO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST SATURDAY...FORCING OVER THE GRADUALLY SHALLOWING
COLD WEDGE LAYER WILL DIMINISH MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...
LINGERING SFC TO 850 MB MOISTURE MAY PERMIT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
PERSIST AND CAD CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON WED. THE
500 MB LOW CENTER WILL LIFT NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MID SOUTH AND BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
COLD FROPA IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THE FAVORED PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
SHOULD BRING THE FROPA THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AND THUS LIMIT DAYTIME INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...THE FRONTAL BAND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAIRLY NARROW SINCE THE SYSTEM APPEARS TOO FAST
TO ALLOW FOR MUCH OF A SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE TAP. STILL...30 TO
40 KT SW 850 MB FLOW WILL MAKE FOR INTERESTING SHEAR PROFILES WITH
THE FROPA...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED MONITORING DESPITE THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE ERN SEABOARD...WITH A DRYING NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
AT LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO LATE WEEK BEFORE
COOLING OFF INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE AS THE FCST CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHRA WITH PATCHES OF IFR CIGS WARRANT EXTRA LINES
IN THE TAF. INITIALIZED TAF WITH IFR CIGS AND SHRA BEFORE THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP SLIDES EAST LEADING TO REMOVAL OF SUCH WITHIN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. LATEST CAM GUID FAVORS ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
POSSIBLE TS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ACTUAL FRONTAL AXIS PUSHES
INTO THE PIEDMONT...THUS TAF FEATURES REINTRODUCTION OF SHRA AND
MVFR CIGS AT 00Z WITH NO TS MENTION AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BEYOND THAT
GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR WITH WINDS VEERED NORTHERLY AND GUSTY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE WITH SLIGHT TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS GIVEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR WHICH DOES SHOW POSSIBLE THUNDER
PRODUCING CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT...DID INCLUDE VCTS MENTION AT
KGSP/KGMU THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LEFT FROM ALL OTHER SITES AS
CONFIDENCE WAINS WITH TIME. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AT ALL SITES
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS MIXING DOWN BY BY MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER MOIST SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOW CLOUDS AGAIN SEEN OVER THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 89% HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 92% HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 87% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1116 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
NAM AND RAP ARE SHOWING MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND CURRENT BATCH
EXITING SOUTHWEST MN. DO NOT SEE MORE THAN PATCHY MID LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM RIGHT NOW AND GFS LOOKS PRETTY TAME. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER PRETTY LOW AND ADJUST FOR AREA NEXT FEW HOURS IF
NEEDED...BUT RIGHT NOW FEEL CLOUDS WILL STAY MINIMAL. IN ANY EVENT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL TAKE FULL CONTROL BY LATE MORNING AND WE
WILL HAVE OUR SUNNY DAY. AT THAT TIME EVEN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
NIL SO SEE LITTLE RESTRICTION TO HEATING BY THE LOWERING MIDDAY SUN
ANGLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH 50 NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS PERHAPS AS
WARM AS THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. A MODEST BREEZE FROM
THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHWEST...THEN TO WEST BY THE END
OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD STAY PRETTY CLEAR DESPITE THE DECENTLY
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...AS MODELS SHOW IT STAYING PRETTY DRY AT
ALL LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL EARLY THEN LIKELY HOLD PRETTY
STEADY...MAYBE EVEN GO UP A BIT AT SOME PLACES DURING THE NIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY INCREASE AFTER A SLIGHT EARLY EVENING DROP. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
STILL LOOKS LIKE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIODS. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS QUITE
STRONG AND THIS HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. EVEN USING
SOME OF THE MORE DRIER DEW POINT VALUES AS SHOWN BY MOS...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE TOO MOIST FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THIS IS LIKELY
BECAUSE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACTUALLY RETURNS TODAY...AND MANY TIMES
THE SECOND DAY OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN DEW POINT VALUES
WHICH ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA. THAT SAID...THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE EITHER HIGH OR VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING DAYTIME HIGHS OVER
SUPERBLEND VALUES BY A SOLID CATEGORY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GIVEN
THE MIXED DEPTH. IN ADDITION...SUPERBLEND LOWS ARE LIKELY TOO COOL
CONSIDERING THE SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS AT NIGHT...AND CONTINUED TO
USE A LOT OF RAW MODEL VALUES INSTEAD OF MOS OR SUPERBLEND VALUES.
FURTHER OUT...INTERESTINGLY THE GFS IS NOW BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE MID WEEK UPPER LOW IN HOW IT EJECTS
THE CLOSED LOW NORTHEASTWARD. THE GEM GLOBAL...ALTHOUGH STILL
CUTTING THIS AREA OFF WITH A NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO CHANGE TO A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION OVERALL. AT
THIS TIME...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TRACK THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS
FURTHER NORTH THAN EITHER THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL. THEREFORE IT IS A
WARMER AND WETTER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD GIVE PRIMARILY A CHILLY
RAINFALL. THE GFS...BEING FURTHER SOUTH...WOULD BE MORE OF A RAIN TO
MIXED PRECIP EVENT AFFECTING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AT ANY RATE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT THIS
POINT IF THE GFS CONTINUES TO PLAY CATCH UP WITH THE ECMWF AS THE
DAYS PROGRESS...THUS THE INCREASE IN MID WEEK POPS AT THIS TIME AND
NOT GOING REAL COLD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR LLWS FROM ABOUT 89Z THROUGH
15Z AT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
529 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
NAM AND RAP ARE SHOWING MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND CURRENT BATCH
EXITING SOUTHWEST MN. DO NOT SEE MORE THAN PATCHY MID LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM RIGHT NOW AND GFS LOOKS PRETTY TAME. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER PRETTY LOW AND ADJUST FOR AREA NEXT FEW HOURS IF
NEEDED...BUT RIGHT NOW FEEL CLOUDS WILL STAY MINIMAL. IN ANY EVENT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL TAKE FULL CONTROL BY LATE MORNING AND WE
WILL HAVE OUR SUNNY DAY. AT THAT TIME EVEN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
NIL SO SEE LITTLE RESTRICTION TO HEATING BY THE LOWERING MIDDAY SUN
ANGLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH 50 NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS PERHAPS AS
WARM AS THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. A MODEST BREEZE FROM
THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHWEST...THEN TO WEST BY THE END
OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD STAY PRETTY CLEAR DESPITE THE DECENTLY
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...AS MODELS SHOW IT STAYING PRETTY DRY AT
ALL LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL EARLY THEN LIKELY HOLD PRETTY
STEADY...MAYBE EVEN GO UP A BIT AT SOME PLACES DURING THE NIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY INCREASE AFTER A SLIGHT EARLY EVENING DROP. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
STILL LOOKS LIKE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIODS. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS QUITE
STRONG AND THIS HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. EVEN USING
SOME OF THE MORE DRIER DEW POINT VALUES AS SHOWN BY MOS...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE TOO MOIST FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THIS IS LIKELY
BECAUSE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACTUALLY RETURNS TODAY...AND MANY TIMES
THE SECOND DAY OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN DEW POINT VALUES
WHICH ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA. THAT SAID...THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE EITHER HIGH OR VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING DAYTIME HIGHS OVER
SUPERBLEND VALUES BY A SOLID CATEGORY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GIVEN
THE MIXED DEPTH. IN ADDITION...SUPERBLEND LOWS ARE LIKELY TOO COOL
CONSIDERING THE SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS AT NIGHT...AND CONTINUED TO
USE A LOT OF RAW MODEL VALUES INSTEAD OF MOS OR SUPERBLEND VALUES.
FURTHER OUT...INTERESTINGLY THE GFS IS NOW BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE MID WEEK UPPER LOW IN HOW IT EJECTS
THE CLOSED LOW NORTHEASTWARD. THE GEM GLOBAL...ALTHOUGH STILL
CUTTING THIS AREA OFF WITH A NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO CHANGE TO A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION OVERALL. AT
THIS TIME...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TRACK THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS
FURTHER NORTH THAN EITHER THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL. THEREFORE IT IS A
WARMER AND WETTER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD GIVE PRIMARILY A CHILLY
RAINFALL. THE GFS...BEING FURTHER SOUTH...WOULD BE MORE OF A RAIN TO
MIXED PRECIP EVENT AFFECTING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AT ANY RATE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT THIS
POINT IF THE GFS CONTINUES TO PLAY CATCH UP WITH THE ECMWF AS THE
DAYS PROGRESS...THUS THE INCREASE IN MID WEEK POPS AT THIS TIME AND
NOT GOING REAL COLD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
VFR THROUGH 08/12Z WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH MAY DEVELOP AFTER 08/09Z NORTHEAST OF FSD IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
308 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
NAM AND RAP ARE SHOWING MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND CURRENT BATCH
EXITING SOUTHWEST MN. DO NOT SEE MORE THAN PATCHY MID LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM RIGHT NOW AND GFS LOOKS PRETTY TAME. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER PRETTY LOW AND ADJUST FOR AREA NEXT FEW HOURS IF
NEEDED...BUT RIGHT NOW FEEL CLOUDS WILL STAY MINIMAL. IN ANY EVENT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL TAKE FULL CONTROL BY LATE MORNING AND WE
WILL HAVE OUR SUNNY DAY. AT THAT TIME EVEN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
NIL SO SEE LITTLE RESTRICTION TO HEATING BY THE LOWERING MIDDAY SUN
ANGLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH 50 NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS PERHAPS AS
WARM AS THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. A MODEST BREEZE FROM
THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHWEST...THEN TO WEST BY THE END
OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD STAY PRETTY CLEAR DESPITE THE DECENTLY
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...AS MODELS SHOW IT STAYING PRETTY DRY AT
ALL LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL EARLY THEN LIKELY HOLD PRETTY
STEADY...MAYBE EVEN GO UP A BIT AT SOME PLACES DURING THE NIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY INCREASE AFTER A SLIGHT EARLY EVENING DROP. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
STILL LOOKS LIKE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIODS. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS QUITE
STRONG AND THIS HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. EVEN USING
SOME OF THE MORE DRIER DEW POINT VALUES AS SHOWN BY MOS...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE TOO MOIST FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THIS IS LIKELY
BECAUSE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACTUALLY RETURNS TODAY...AND MANY TIMES
THE SECOND DAY OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN DEW POINT VALUES
WHICH ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA. THAT SAID...THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE EITHER HIGH OR VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING DAYTIME HIGHS OVER
SUPERBLEND VALUES BY A SOLID CATEGORY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GIVEN
THE MIXED DEPTH. IN ADDITION...SUPERBLEND LOWS ARE LIKELY TOO COOL
CONSIDERING THE SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS AT NIGHT...AND CONTINUED TO
USE A LOT OF RAW MODEL VALUES INSTEAD OF MOS OR SUPERBLEND VALUES.
FURTHER OUT...INTERESTINGLY THE GFS IS NOW BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE MID WEEK UPPER LOW IN HOW IT EJECTS
THE CLOSED LOW NORTHEASTWARD. THE GEM GLOBAL...ALTHOUGH STILL
CUTTING THIS AREA OFF WITH A NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO CHANGE TO A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION OVERALL. AT
THIS TIME...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TRACK THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS
FURTHER NORTH THAN EITHER THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL. THEREFORE IT IS A
WARMER AND WETTER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD GIVE PRIMARILY A CHILLY
RAINFALL. THE GFS...BEING FURTHER SOUTH...WOULD BE MORE OF A RAIN TO
MIXED PRECIP EVENT AFFECTING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AT ANY RATE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT THIS
POINT IF THE GFS CONTINUES TO PLAY CATCH UP WITH THE ECMWF AS THE
DAYS PROGRESS...THUS THE INCREASE IN MID WEEK POPS AT THIS TIME AND
NOT GOING REAL COLD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
846 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...02Z SURFACE PLOT PLACES AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER MIDDLE AND EAST TENNESSEE. INFRARED/11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
RETROGRADING INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE. AS OF 8 PM CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND 50S SOUTH.
00Z WRF AND HRRR SHORT TERM MODEL ISENTROPIC SURFACES SUGGEST
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR
TRENDS THUS FAR SEEM TO AGREE WITH THIS THINKING. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES AND ANY OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AN INVERTED SFC TROF CURRENTLY STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD FROM A SFC
LOW LOCATED NEAR THE ALABAMA COAST TO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
INVERTED SFC TROF WILL MOVE WESTWARD AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS
TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COVER
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE RIVER. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE AS FAR WEST AS
JONESBORO ARKANSAS. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS FROM THE SYSTEM COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE CLOUDS SPREADING IN...EXPECT LOWS
NOT TO DROP AS LOW AS WHAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. IN
ADDITION...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THUS
WILL GO WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
40S TO LOWER 50S.
CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM MAY NOT MOVE OUT UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. THUS
EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
BY TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TURNING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
RETURN FLOW DOES NOT AS LOOK AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW/UPPER LOW WILL BE
VERTICALLY STACKED AND WILL TRACK FROM KANSAS TO WISCONSIN. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM MAY OCCLUDE PINCHING OFF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THAT WILL BE TRYING TO MOVE UP THE DELTA. THE GFS SHOWS NO
CAPE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF HAS VERY MEAGER AMOUNTS.
LOOKING AT ANALOG DATA FROM PAST EVENTS THAT LOOK SIMILAR TO WHAT
MODELS SUGGEST WILL HAPPEN ON WEDNESDAY...MORE OF THE EVENTS
PRODUCED NO SEVERE WEATHER THAN EVENTS THAT PRODUCED SEVERE
WEATHER. THUS EXPECT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE DIMINISHING. WHAT WILL LIKELY
HAPPEN WILL BE JUST A QLCS TO MOVE THROUGH WITH A SMALL TORNADO
RISK ON THE ONSET WHEN IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS/THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND THEN NO SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE LINE AS IT
CROSSES THE MS RIVER AS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS GET PINCHED OFF AS
THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY IS STILL SEVERAL PERIODS
AWAY AND THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BEAR WATCHING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
VFR ALTITUDE CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHEAST MS AND MIDDLE TN WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWEST TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER
SOUTHERN AL. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR ALTITUDES
LATER THIS EVENING...AND MIX OUT TO VFR ALTITUDE MONDAY MORNING.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1138 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
EVENING INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS LOCATED
FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW A MAJORITY OF RAIN SHOWERS
LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND EAST ARKANSAS SOUTH OF I-55 AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LATEST 00Z WRF AND HRRR INDICATE SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AND ADJUST ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
A COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM SAVANNAH TENNESSEE...TO OXFORD
MISSISSIPPI...TO GREENVILLE MISSISSIPPI. AN AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT AS A WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR GREENVILLE. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT AREAS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THUS FAR
NO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND THINK THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY IS SHRINKING THUS WILL REMOVE MENTION OF ANY STRONG
STORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE HWO. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW STRONG OR SEVERE LIMITS.
THE FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SATURDAY
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO EXIT THE
CWA BY SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND
THE FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE A WEAK WARM
FRONT MAY MOVE NORTHWARD SETTING OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WHILE THE
GFS IS DRY. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CWA. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS TIME PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER THE CURRENT GFS TRACK OF THE SFC LOW COULD BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX INTO AT LEAST NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF TRACK IS NOT SO
FAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING SO STAY TUNED.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT KMEM AND KTUP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH KMKL AND KJBR MAINLY DRY. VFR CIGS HAVE WORKED BACK INTO KJBR
WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS BACK TO MVFR HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
KMEM AND KMKL. THIS SLOW RISE OF CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT
KTUP AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BRISK FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY AT ALL SITES
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
RAIN SHOULD END AT KTUP BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AT KTUP. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER ON
SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
VFR CIGS AND DIMINISHING NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES FOR SATURDAY EVENING.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
448 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT
SOME CLOUDS TO COME INTO KAMA AND KDHT AROUND 07Z TO 10Z BUT NOT
EXPECTING THESE TO DROP CONDITIONS INTO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE UNDER
10KTS FOR ALL SITES UNTIL 15Z WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP AND
GUST TO 25 TO 30KTS.
BEAT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS
COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NAM 850 MB TEMPS 12Z TODAY AROUND 5
DEGREES CELSIUS AT AMARILLO OR 41 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WITH A MIN
TEMPS THIS MORNING OF 34 DEGREES. NAM 850 MB TEMP 12Z SUNDAY OF 4
DEGREES CELSIUS OR 39 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...WITH PROJECTED MIN TEMP
SUNDAY MORNING OF 32 DEGREES. DID HAVE SOME LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WHICH HELPED TO KEEP MIN TEMPS A BIT WARMER THIS
MORNING. CAVEAT WILL BE ANY POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER HRRR NOT FORECASTING ANY LOW CLOUDS OR ANY OTHER
CLOUDS BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z SUNDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. NAM AND GFS ALSO KEEPING
SKIES CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. PROVIDED THAT CLOUDS
DO NOT DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...EXPECTING MIN TEMPS SUNDAY
MORNING TO BE NEAR 32 DEGREES OR SO FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THEN FROM SHERMAN COUNTY SOUTH TO RANDALL
COUNTY WITH MAINLY 33 TO 36 DEGREES SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE.
THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALSO TEMPS TODAY SOME 3 TO 7
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH DEW POINT TEMPS
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE VERY SHALLOW AND SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO DROP.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
NEXT TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE
PANHANDLES...THEREFORE FEEL DRY BUT WINDY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GFS AND DOES CLIP THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
BRIEF WRAP AROUND PRECIP. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
COULD POSSIBLY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
FORECAST NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING SHARPLY
COLDER BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.
&&
$$
16/8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
353 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL
TROUGH/LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NE MX COAST AND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE HEADING INTO
TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL OCCUR. DESPITE
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SFC TO H85...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN STILL
REMAINS UNSEASONABLY MOIST /PWAT VALUES THIS MORNING WERE 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/. MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 300K LAYER IS PROG TO OCCUR ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...A MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN COAHUILA MX AND SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING. COMBINATION OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THE DPVA...AND A
H25 JET OVERHEAD...SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THE 18Z NAM...12ZGFS/GEM/TTU
WRF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS OUTPUT WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF AND SOME RUNS OF THE RAP BRING DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FARTHER SOUTH AND THUS KEEP THE CWA MAINLY DRY TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF THE LATTER OCCURRING...HAVE GONE WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN CWA RATHER THAN THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES. NE COUNTIES WILL HAVE LOWEST
POTENTIAL OF SEEING ADDITIONAL PRECIP WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL BE THE WEAKEST. ASIDE FROM PRECIP...STRATUS IS PROG TO
THICKEN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW PEAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM PORT ARANSAS TO SEADRIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD NOT FALL TOO MUCH FROM CURRENT TEMPS...THOUGH IF
ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THEN
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP MAY KNOCK
TEMPS BELOW CURRENTLY FORECAST MINS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN
CWA...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. DESPITE A RATHER POTENT
H5 S/W TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS AND A STRONGER H25 JET NOSING INTO
THE AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PROG TO BE MUCH DRIER TOMORROW AND
THUS ONLY EXPECTING CLOUD COVER FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING MAY TRY TO OCCUR BY LATE IN THE DAY SUN WITH
MAX TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER OR NOT ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT /ESPECIALLY NE
COUNTIES/ BEFORE LLVL MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE ECMWF/GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WL ENTER THE WEST COAST BY
MONDAY AND THE SWRN CONUS TUESDAY...THEN ACRS TEXAS/SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA. EXPECT
ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE DRG THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM. GFS DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS PWAT
VALUES OVER THE CWA/MSA TO INCREASE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MSTR/UPPER DYNAMICS/ SFC FRONT WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY. DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS THE FOREGOING UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ANTICIPATED AFTER FROPA OVER THE MSA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A COASTAL
TROUGH FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC PLACES THE
CWA/MSA NEAR THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. FURTHER...THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC)
INCREASES MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WL FCST ISOLD
SHOWER ACTIVITY (THE GFS DETERMINISTIC MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT
CIN/POSITIVE LI VALUES) FRIDAY/SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY OVER THE
CWA/MSA.
&&
.MARINE...STRONG TO VERY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREA BAYS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND NEAR/OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY SUN. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 61 70 58 75 66 / 30 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 57 68 50 73 61 / 20 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 57 66 57 74 65 / 50 20 10 10 10
ALICE 60 69 55 76 63 / 40 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 61 69 57 73 67 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 57 66 55 72 61 / 30 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 62 69 56 75 64 / 40 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 63 70 60 73 69 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
RH/79...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
246 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS
COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NAM 850 MB TEMPS 12Z TODAY AROUND 5
DEGREES CELSIUS AT AMARILLO OR 41 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WITH A MIN
TEMPS THIS MORNING OF 34 DEGREES. NAM 850 MB TEMP 12Z SUNDAY OF 4
DEGREES CELSIUS OR 39 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...WITH PROJECTED MIN TEMP
SUNDAY MORNING OF 32 DEGREES. DID HAVE SOME LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WHICH HELPED TO KEEP MIN TEMPS A BIT WARMER THIS
MORNING. CAVEAT WILL BE ANY POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER HRRR NOT FORECASTING ANY LOW CLOUDS OR ANY OTHER
CLOUDS BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z SUNDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. NAM AND GFS ALSO KEEPING
SKIES CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. PROVIDED THAT CLOUDS
DO NOT DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...EXPECTING MIN TEMPS SUNDAY
MORNING TO BE NEAR 32 DEGREES OR SO FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THEN FROM SHERMAN COUNTY SOUTH TO RANDALL
COUNTY WITH MAINLY 33 TO 36 DEGREES SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE.
THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALSO TEMPS TODAY SOME 3 TO 7
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH DEW POINT TEMPS
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE VERY SHALLOW AND SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO DROP.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
NEXT TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE
PANHANDLES...THEREFORE FEEL DRY BUT WINDY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GFS AND DOES CLIP THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
BRIEF WRAP AROUND PRECIP. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
COULD POSSIBLY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
FORECAST NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING SHARPLY
COLDER BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 33 57 39 68 46 / 0 0 5 5 5
BEAVER OK 32 61 40 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 32 57 34 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 37 59 42 70 48 / 0 0 5 5 0
BOYS RANCH TX 32 59 38 69 43 / 0 0 5 0 0
CANYON TX 31 58 38 68 46 / 0 0 5 5 0
CLARENDON TX 33 58 38 68 46 / 0 0 5 5 5
DALHART TX 30 58 36 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 33 59 38 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 30 57 37 68 43 / 0 0 5 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 33 60 43 66 48 / 0 0 0 5 5
PAMPA TX 34 57 41 67 47 / 0 0 5 5 0
SHAMROCK TX 35 60 41 67 48 / 0 0 5 5 0
WELLINGTON TX 36 61 42 68 48 / 0 0 5 5 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.
&&
$$
14/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1123 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
SHORT TERM...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED UA TROUGH STRETCHED FROM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SW TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...IS
AIDING IN SENDING DOWN A COLD FRONT /AND THUS A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR/ NOTED MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS.
MODELS HINT AT THE FROPA CLEARING THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THUS SHIFTING SRLY SFC WINDS AROUND TO THE NE. BEFORE THIS
HAPPENS...IT IS NOTEWORTHY TO MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE LAST NIGHT...WERE PROPAGATING NE WITH TIME
PER 07Z RADAR ANALYSIS. THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY IS COURTESY OF AN
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKS TO THE UPSLOPE SFC REGIME AND A
BIT OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. MODELS SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS ACTIVITY
SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE FA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH THE IMPINGEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS FALLING TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
LATER ON THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES. THE NAM
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR EXHIBITS THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
FOG NEAR SUNRISE ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES. THIS COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE
GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S THERE/ BUT
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTN...THE 1030 MB SFC RIDGE DRIVING
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE A BIT OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY E-NE WIND SPEEDS /10-20 KTS/ BEFORE
RELAXING AOA SUNSET. IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE A CRISP FALL DAY
WITH THE USHERING IN OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS...AS TEMPS WILL ONLY
WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. IT IS STARTING TO SOUND LIKE AN OLD
HAT...BUT CHILLY TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR TONIGHT GIVEN THE SAME
CONDITIONS THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT MODEL
SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT AN INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN AND SWRN ZONES...WITH
THE NAM SHOWING RATHER LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NUDGING UP AGAINST THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS
POSSIBILITY...SO WILL ELECT TO KEEP WX GRIDS NIL ATTM...BUT WILL
BUMP POPS UP TO 9-10 PERCENT.
LONG TERM...
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
SERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN
COLORADO AND NRN NEW MEXICO LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL BE FORMING OVER THE WRN CONUS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE FCST PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THEN
NEWD TO THE WRN SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING...
DEEPENING RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT DOES SO. THIS LOW WILL PUSH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT QUICKLY EWD THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAIRLY RICH LOW LEVEL AIR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT SUGGESTIONS ARE THAT CAP WILL HOLD THIS FAR WEST
WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FCST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST ATTM...ALTHOUGH
MODEL BLEND REMAINS NEAR THE 15 PCT THRESHOLD ACROSS THE SERN
ZONES. THE MAIN AFFECT FROM THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WILL BE
GUSTY...AND POSSIBLY STRONG...WINDS. MAGNITUDE OF PROGGED HEIGHT
GRADIENT SUGGESTS WIND WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET IF THIS
SYSTEM IS ABLE TO SLOW DOWN BY SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. AT ITS CURRENT
PROJECTED PACE WEST TO NW WINDS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OR A
TOUCH BELOW LOOK QUITE POSSIBLE. WILL BUMP WIND SPEEDS ABOUT 5 KTS
ABOVE MODEL BLEND INITIALIZATION. FINALLY...RATHER BENIGN END TO
THE WEEK CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WITH WARM LOW
LEVEL AIR LOCKED OVER NRN MEXICO MOS TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
LOOK REASONABLE ATTM.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/99/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
521 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY MID-MORNING /12-15
KTS/...BEFORE DECLINING AROUND SUNSET. SKC WILL BECOME VFR SCT
DECKS AT TIMES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
SHORT TERM...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED UA TROUGH STRETCHED FROM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SW TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...IS
AIDING IN SENDING DOWN A COLD FRONT /AND THUS A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR/ NOTED MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS.
MODELS HINT AT THE FROPA CLEARING THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THUS SHIFTING SRLY SFC WINDS AROUND TO THE NE. BEFORE THIS
HAPPENS...IT IS NOTEWORTHY TO MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE LAST NIGHT...WERE PROPAGATING NE WITH TIME
PER 07Z RADAR ANALYSIS. THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY IS COURTESY OF AN
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKS TO THE UPSLOPE SFC REGIME AND A
BIT OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. MODELS SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS ACTIVITY
SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE FA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH THE IMPINGEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS FALLING TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
LATER ON THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES. THE NAM
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR EXHIBITS THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
FOG NEAR SUNRISE ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES. THIS COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE
GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S THERE/ BUT
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTN...THE 1030 MB SFC RIDGE DRIVING
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE A BIT OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY E-NE WIND SPEEDS /10-20 KTS/ BEFORE
RELAXING AOA SUNSET. IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE A CRISP FALL DAY
WITH THE USHERING IN OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS...AS TEMPS WILL ONLY
WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. IT IS STARTING TO SOUND LIKE AN OLD
HAT...BUT CHILLY TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR TONIGHT GIVEN THE SAME
CONDITIONS THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT MODEL
SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT AN INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN AND SWRN ZONES...WITH
THE NAM SHOWING RATHER LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NUDGING UP AGAINST THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS
POSSIBILITY...SO WILL ELECT TO KEEP WX GRIDS NIL ATTM...BUT WILL
BUMP POPS UP TO 9-10 PERCENT.
LONG TERM...
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
SERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN
COLORADO AND NRN NEW MEXICO LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL BE FORMING OVER THE WRN CONUS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE FCST PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THEN
NEWD TO THE WRN SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING...
DEEPENING RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT DOES SO. THIS LOW WILL PUSH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT QUICKLY EWD THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAIRLY RICH LOW LEVEL AIR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT SUGGESTIONS ARE THAT CAP WILL HOLD THIS FAR WEST
WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FCST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST ATTM...ALTHOUGH
MODEL BLEND REMAINS NEAR THE 15 PCT THRESHOLD ACROSS THE SERN
ZONES. THE MAIN AFFECT FROM THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WILL BE
GUSTY...AND POSSIBLY STRONG...WINDS. MAGNITUDE OF PROGGED HEIGHT
GRADIENT SUGGESTS WIND WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET IF THIS
SYSTEM IS ABLE TO SLOW DOWN BY SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. AT ITS CURRENT
PROJECTED PACE WEST TO NW WINDS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OR A
TOUCH BELOW LOOK QUITE POSSIBLE. WILL BUMP WIND SPEEDS ABOUT 5 KTS
ABOVE MODEL BLEND INITIALIZATION. FINALLY...RATHER BENIGN END TO
THE WEEK CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WITH WARM LOW
LEVEL AIR LOCKED OVER NRN MEXICO MOS TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
LOOK REASONABLE ATTM.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
208 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED UA TROUGH STRETCHED FROM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SW TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...IS
AIDING IN SENDING DOWN A COLD FRONT /AND THUS A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR/ NOTED MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS.
MODELS HINT AT THE FROPA CLEARING THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THUS SHIFTING SRLY SFC WINDS AROUND TO THE NE. BEFORE THIS
HAPPENS...IT IS NOTEWORTHY TO MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE LAST NIGHT...WERE PROPAGATING NE WITH TIME
PER 07Z RADAR ANALYSIS. THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY IS COURTESY OF AN
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKS TO THE UPSLOPE SFC REGIME AND A
BIT OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. MODELS SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS ACTIVITY
SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE FA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH THE IMPINGEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS FALLING TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
LATER ON THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES. THE NAM
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR EXHIBITS THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
FOG NEAR SUNRISE ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES. THIS COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE
GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S THERE/ BUT
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTN...THE 1030 MB SFC RIDGE DRIVING
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE A BIT OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY E-NE WIND SPEEDS /10-20 KTS/ BEFORE
RELAXING AOA SUNSET. IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE A CRISP FALL DAY
WITH THE USHERING IN OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS...AS TEMPS WILL ONLY
WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. IT IS STARTING TO SOUND LIKE AN OLD
HAT...BUT CHILLY TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR TONIGHT GIVEN THE SAME
CONDITIONS THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT MODEL
SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT AN INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN AND SWRN ZONES...WITH
THE NAM SHOWING RATHER LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NUDGING UP AGAINST THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS
POSSIBILITY...SO WILL ELECT TO KEEP WX GRID NIL ATTM...BUT WILL BUMP
POPS UP TO 9-10 PERCENT.
.LONG TERM...
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
SERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN
COLORADO AND NRN NEW MEXICO LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL BE FORMING OVER THE WRN CONUS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE FCST PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THEN
NEWD TO THE WRN SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING...
DEEPENING RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT DOES SO. THIS LOW WILL PUSH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT QUICKLY EWD THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAIRLY RICH LOW LEVEL AIR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT SUGGESTIONS ARE THAT CAP WILL HOLD THIS FAR WEST
WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FCST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST ATTM...ALTHOUGH
MODEL BLEND REMAINS NEAR THE 15 PCT THRESHOLD ACROSS THE SERN
ZONES. THE MAIN AFFECT FROM THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WILL BE
GUSTY...AND POSSIBLY STRONG...WINDS. MAGNITUDE OF PROGGED HEIGHT
GRADIENT SUGGESTS WIND WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET IF THIS
SYSTEM IS ABLE TO SLOW DOWN BY SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. AT ITS CURRENT
PROJECTED PACE WEST TO NW WINDS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OR A
TOUCH BELOW LOOK QUITE POSSIBLE. WILL BUMP WIND SPEEDS ABOUT 5 KTS
ABOVE MODEL BLEND INITIALIZATION. FINALLY...RATHER BENIGN END TO
THE WEEK CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WITH WARM LOW
LEVEL AIR LOCKED OVER NRN MEXICO MOS TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
LOOK REASONABLE ATTM.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1139 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across West
Central Texas most of the night, occasionally resulting in thunder
at the forecast terminals. However, given the brief temporal
impacts and scattered nature of the convection, most of the sites
only include showers at this time. Otherwise, expect MVFR ceilings
at all sites except KABI. A cold front will move south across the
area late tonight, eventually bringing an end to the precipitation
chances from north to south on Saturday. This is also expected to
scour out the low clouds by mid/late morning with gusty northeast
winds ushering in drier air.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
UPDATE...
Based on radar and satellite trends over the last several hours,
updated PoP, Weather, and SKY grids for the reminder of tonight.
Short-term models still indicate the best chances for rain tonight
are across our southeastern counties; thus, no PoP or Weather
changes there. The latest suite of products reflect these changes.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
MVFR ceilings continue along the I-10 corridor from KOZA TO KJCT
and are expected to expand north during the evening and overnight
hours. Dewpoints remain in the 30s farther north, but we are
seeing a northward surge in low-level moisture approaching the
Concho Valley. MVFR ceilings are expected as far north as a KSJT-
KBWD line through a few hours after sunrise, with scattered
showers, and a few thunderstorms, developing this evening and
continuing overnight. Rain chances are greatest over the northwest
Hill Country, tapering off near I-20. Rain is expected to end from
north to south by midday Saturday as a cold front brings drier air
into the region. Winds may gust over 20 kts in the wake of this
front.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
Showers and storms continue to develop across the Northwest Hill
Country this afternoon. Light northeast flow behind a cold front
combining with the cloud cover spreading northward across much of
the area to keep temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s this
afternoon. Models still have differences with regards to the
expected convection tonight, as return flow starts to bring
moisture up and over the cold front. GFS continues to confine much
of the precipitation to the Hill Country and Heartland, while the
HRRR and the TTU WRF show convection farther north and west into
San Angelo and Abilene as well. The WRF and HRRR handled
yesterdays lack of convection better, and were faster to break out
the convection earlier today. Thus, will place the higher PoPs
across the southeast, but will also increase the rain chances a
little more across the Concho Valley and Big Country as well.
A reinforcing surge of cooler and drier air moves into the area
tomorrow, ending the rainfall from north to south as it moves
through. Still cool however, even with a little sun possible in the
afternoon. Highs will remain in the low to mid 60s.
LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Isolated light showers along and south of the I-10 corridor end
Saturday night, as dry air associated with surface high pressure
builds in. 700 MB moisture and mid level clouds, however, will
persist Saturday night and Sunday, mainly south of the I-20
corridor. Low level moisture and clouds return Monday as stronger
southeast to south surface winds return Gulf moisture. The next
chance of rain comes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, as an
upper low moves across the Texas Panhandle into the Central
Plains. Unfortunately, most of the lift from this system is north
of West Central Texas. Thus, will keep rainfall chances on the low
side. A cold front associated with the upper low will also move
through Wednesday, pushing low and mid level moisture east, and
ending rain chances. The later half of next week is dry as surface
high pressure dominates.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 49 63 42 62 / 40 20 5 5
San Angelo 51 64 42 62 / 50 30 10 5
Junction 53 62 45 63 / 70 60 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Johnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1137 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
OVERALL NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE TAF THINKING EXCEPT THAT SEA
FOG AND FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE HOUSTON TERMINALS SOUTHWARD.
STILL SEEING THE TREND OF CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS
ACROSS ALL OF SE TX. VSBY HAS IMPROVED AT KGLS BUT SUSPECT THAT
SEA FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE SITE. MOST OF
KIAH/KHOU/KSGR/KLBX WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH IFR AND FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP CLOSER TO 09-12Z THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FORMING NEAR KCLL. WOULD LOOK FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
RAIN SHOULD DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE AND MIXING
OF DRIER AIR HELPS ERODE SOME CLOUD COVER. THAT SAID STILL
POSSIBLE TO HAVE SOME IFR/MVFR DECKS LINGER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
MIGHT NOT SEE CLOUD COVER IMPROVE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LIBERTY TO DOWNTOWN HOUSTON TO EDNA. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR GALVESTON BAY AND THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OUT TO 20 NM BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND FREEPORT.
MORE DETAILS IN THE DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW.
40
DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WAS LOCATED AT 6 PM FROM NEAR
CLEVELAND TO HOUSTON TO JUST NORTH OF VICTORIA. BOTH THE NAM12 AND
RAP13 MOVE THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HRRR AND SREF DEVELOP AREAS OF FOG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE MODELS DO DEVELOP AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF AT THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 700 MB WILL PROVIDE FOR A BIT
OF A CAP WHICH MAY KEEP THE RAIN AWAY FROM THE COASTAL AREAS
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM12 FORECASTS ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH
WILL HELP DEVELOP RAIN AREAS. THINK THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED.
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LIBERTY TO HOUSTON TO EDNA. ALSO ADDED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM FOR COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE LOCATIONS.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
RADAR TRENDS SHOW ACTIVITY MAINLY FROM C TEXAS THROUGH THE
ARKLATEX NORTH OF THE KCLL/KUTS TERMINALS. OTHER SHOWERS WERE
NOTED FROM BASICALLY S HOUSTON AND OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SFC
ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS HOUSTON THAT SEEMS TO
BE PUSHING NORTH A BIT AS IT DISSIPATES. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT SHOULD GET A GOOD PUSH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERALL TRENDS IN TAFS ARE RATHER PESSIMISTIC WITH CIGS
BECOMING IFR AND RAIN BEGINNING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...SHOULD HAVE A SLOWER TRANSITION TO MVFR AND THEN
IFR THROUGH 12Z COMPARED TO SOUTHERN TAFS. RAIN MAY BEGIN SOONER
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH AND AS A RESULT RAIN
COULD END EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS MAY HOLD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT MAY BEGIN TO LIFT AS DRIER AIR MIXES.
KIAH/KHOU/KSGR...WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND A MOIST
AIRMASS JUST SOUTH OF IT...COULD HAVE A TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR
CIGS EARLIER TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ENDING BUT WILL
KEEP VCSH IN TAFS UNTIL 02Z. EXPECT MORE MODERATE RAIN TO DEVELOP
IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS COULD THEN PERSIST
AWHILE UNTIL DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE MOISTURE. POSSIBLE THAT AN
ISO THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED
OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NOT PERSIST LONG.
KLBX/KGLS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG THE COAST HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME SEA FOG TO DEVELOP BUT IT IS PROBABLY QUITE TRANSIENT. WILL
KEEP TAFS PESSIMISTIC WITH FOG AND IFR CIGS BUT LIKELY NOT HAVE
CIGS THAT LOW THE WHOLE TAF. RADIATION FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR LBX BUT
COULD ALSO BE SOME SEA FOG THAT MOVES INLAND. EITHER WAY IFR CIGS
OR LOWER COULD GET SOCKED IN THE AREA AND THEN IMPROVE AS RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOP CLOSER TO 12Z IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE FRONT AND COULD HAVE SOME GOOD GUSTS.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 59 65 50 64 48 / 70 60 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 68 54 66 50 / 40 70 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 72 59 66 59 / 40 60 30 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1055 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.AVIATION...
MVFR HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES. KEWX RADAR SHOWED
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH A FEW HOURS AGO WITH DEWPOINT DROP NOTED
ACROSS MANY AREA METAR LOCATIONS. LATEST VWP SHOWS NICE
OVERRUNNING PATTERN WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2KFT WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THAT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CIGS
DROPPING DOWN TO IFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE LOWER VISBY DUE TO THE LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED PREVAILING -SHRA AT THE SITES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND THE HRRR SHOWING AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON
CIGS TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS STRONGER PUSH OF
NORTH WIND ENTERS THE AREA AND OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS BRING IFR
CEILINGS...AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP...TO ALL THE TAF SITES BY
12Z. OVERNIGHT WILL CARRY VCSH AND PREVAILING -SHRA BY MORNING.
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TS...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME. SURGE
OF NORTH WIND WILL COME IN THE EARLY MORNING AND INCREASE TO OVER
15KT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE
NORTH WIND GETS DEEPER DURING THE DAY...MAY GET TO SEE SOME MVFR
BUT CONFIDENCE OF THAT IS FAIRLY LOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AREA RADAR DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN ECHOES
ACROSS THE REGION. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND WE/LL ONLY
MENTION 20-50% RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR GREATEST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF I-35. THERE IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND AREAS THAT SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...WE HAVE
MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. ON SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE/LL ONLY MENTION RAIN
CHANCES OF 20-30% AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO START THE WORK WEEK AS
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER TEXAS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS
MIDWEEK AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO MOST AREAS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 56 64 51 62 48 / 60 60 20 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 55 65 50 63 46 / 60 60 20 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 65 52 63 48 / 60 50 20 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 64 50 62 46 / 70 60 20 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 65 53 64 51 / 60 50 30 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 54 63 49 62 45 / 60 60 20 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 59 65 52 64 48 / 70 60 20 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 64 51 61 48 / 60 60 20 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 66 52 64 49 / 50 50 20 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 59 66 53 64 50 / 60 60 20 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 67 54 64 51 / 60 50 20 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
340 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...THEN WILL WEDGE DOWN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES....WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...
RADAR HAS SHOWED A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
TODAY. BOUNDARY IS ALSO WELL DEFINED WITH A VERY SHARP DROP IN
SURFACE DEW POINTS. DEW POINT VALUES IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
HAD ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 40S. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE
MIDNIGHT WERE GENERALLY ONE HALF INCH OR LESS. THE FRONT WILL EXIT
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 00Z/7PM. A
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY THAT TIME BUT
CLEARING WILL TAKE LONGER. GUIDANCE HELD CLOUDS IN UNTIL AROUND
06Z/1AM...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN DANVILLE AND FARMVILLE.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE PREVAILING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE JUST
ALONG THE FRONT AND TONIGHT WITH SOME MODEST PRESSURE RISES.
BY 12Z/7AM SUNDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN INTO THE ZERO
TO +2 RANGE. CLOUDS AND WIND WILL LIMIT IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
FALLING TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
FOR LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE 40S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. EXPECTING A MORE TYPICALLY DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...
1032MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS HIGH CENTER WILL WEDGE SOUTH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL VARY
FROM THE MID 20S IN THE COLDER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE KEY FEATURES LIKE THE COASTAL LOW AND ITS LOCATIONS
AND MOISTURE. IN ANY CASE ...BELIEVE BY MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW IN
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO TRANSPORT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE MOISTURE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE EAST. AS THE COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ON TUESDAY...GRADUALLY TAPER POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER
THAN MONDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...
A FASTER MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. KEPT SCATTERED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
SUPPORTED BY GFS AND ECMWF. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND TRAVEL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY BE STRONG ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH
6HR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 5MB AND A 85H JET. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY WITH
VERY DRY AIR UNDER BREEZY/COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO LOWER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE US GOOD WEATHER NEXT SATURDAY WITH
SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 60 IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST FRIDAY...
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 03
UTC/10PM BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH TO THE EAST COAST BY 01 UTC/8PM...LEAVING BEHIND SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS AND DRYER AIR. RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 03 UTC/10PM.
WIDESPREAD VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR AND IFR WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING LOCALIZED
GUSTS AND A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION ALONG WITH IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS LATER ON INTO SUNDAY. MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION BUT ROUGHLY
FOLLOWED HRRR AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE. EVEN IF CLEARING IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AT KDAN...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 06Z/1AM SUNDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY DEVELOP INTO A STRATUS
LAYER OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
OUT OF KLWB AND KBLF.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.
THE COOL MOIST WEDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG. WEDNESDAY WAS THE
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1258 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY
PRODUCING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPERATURES WITH ITS
PASSAGE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDWEST WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...
SHOWERS TODAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TENTH OF AN
INCH ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER.
AS OF 400 AM EST...SURFACE FRONT WAS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WV. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH BLUEFIELD AND
LEWISBURG AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN THROUGH THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS
INCLUDING THE NEW RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 8A-10A...THEN SLIPPING EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MID-DAY...REACHING DANVILLE AROUND 4PM
BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL VA/NC PIEDMONT TOWARD SUNSET.
RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTED MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BE OCCURRING WELL SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN
TN...AND INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND NORTH GEORGIA. MODELS INDICATE
THIS MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/RAIN WITH TIME
AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH...THE EXPECTATION
IS FOR MORE RAIN TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE TIMING OF
FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL COINCIDE LATER THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NON-DIURNAL. THE WARMEST READINGS IN
OUR WV COUNTIES WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE TAKING A
TUMBLE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE (FROPA) WILL ALSO BRING FALLING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS INCLUDING THE NRV TOWARD
NOON...FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE
ROANOKE...LYNCHBURG...MARTINSVILLE AND MT AIRY AREAS EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON...THE TRANSITION REACHING DANVILLE IN THE 4-6PM TIME
FRAME. THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 10-15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP WITHIN
2 HOURS OF FROPA.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO TEST THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
VA/NC PIEDMONT WITH MAINLY 60S ELSEWHERE. WITH FROPA...
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY TUMBLE THROUGH THE 50S AND IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT READINGS MAY DIP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY SUNSET.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...READINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE 40S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EVEN THOUGH
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER UP THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
PACKETS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING BENEATH A BROAD EASTERN RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING FAIR BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...IT WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
MONDAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
WEDGE TO SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THEIR PLACEMENT OF
FEATURES. BELIEVE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO STEP THE POPS UP
TO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND SEE IF MODELS
CAN HASH OUT THEIR DIFFERENCES OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES. EVERYTHING
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS WE GO THROUGH
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WEDGE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WHICH
IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AND WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT WE CAN EXPECT
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 30S EAST TO MID 20S/AROUND 30 WEST BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. AS THE WEDGE BREAKS ON TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT
WITH MID 50S/AROUND 609 WEST AND LOWER 60S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EST FRIDAY...
A FASTER MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL TAKE SHAPE
TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK WITH THE WEDGE GIVING WAY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHARP BUT QUICK HITTER TYPE 5H TROF/COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATER
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED
SO MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY EVENING FOR A COUPLE
SHOWER BANDS BEFORE MUCH DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR SWINGS IN ON
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
COULD BRIEFLY BE STRONG ENOUGH BOTH ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS BUT IFFY GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF MUCH COLD
AIR. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WITH VERY DRY AIR UNDER BREEZY/COOLER
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY BUT STILL HIGHS 50S WEST TO 60S EAST GIVEN
THE QUICK EXODUS OF THE COOL AIR ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST FRIDAY...
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 03
UTC/10PM BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH TO THE EAST COAST BY 01 UTC/8PM...LEAVING BEHIND SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS AND DRYER AIR. RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 03 UTC/10PM.
WIDESPREAD VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR AND IFR WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING LOCALIZED
GUSTS AND A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION ALONG WITH IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS LATER ON INTO SUNDAY. MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION BUT ROUGHLY
FOLLOWED HRRR AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE. EVEN IF CLEARING IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AT KDAN...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 06Z/1AM SUNDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY DEVELOP INTO A STRATUS
LAYER OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
OUT OF KLWB AND KBLF.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.
THE COOL MOIST WEDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG. WEDNESDAY WAS THE
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1119 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST...REACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK...AND CONTINUING EAST TO THE COAST ON
SATURDAY EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND WEDGE SOUTH
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE
MIDWEST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 807 PM EST FRIDAY...
UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO DELAY ONSET OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT PER LATEST INCOMING HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS AND SURFACE AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
AS OF 800 PM EST...SURFACE FRONT STILL PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL KY...AND WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION FIELDS LIFTING NE IN UPPER FLOW IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO OUR SW...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TN.
HOWEVER...LATEST RUN OF HRRR MODEL WHICH APPEARS TO BE HANDLING
CURRENT SITUATION BEST...DELAYS INTRUSION OF GROUND-BASED
PRECIPITATION INTO PORTIONS OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT...IN SOME INSTANCES NOT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT...BACKED OFF ON HIGHER PRECIPITATION THREAT UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND MAY HAVE TO BACK OFF FURTHER UNTIL
DAYBREAK SATURDAY IF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING NE INTO
EASTERN TN DISSIPATES AS IT CONTINUES NE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
DRY AIRMASS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
ALSO MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS TO REFLECT LATEST SURFACE TRENDS.
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINING WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO CREATE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. ROA AT 82 DEGREES
AND BLF AT 75 DEGREES HAVE BROKEN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST RER AND CLIMATE SECTION FOR INFO.
UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT 18Z/2PM...SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHWARD TO WESTERN TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE ALOFT DRIVING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO...THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. THIS WILL SLOW
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND TRAVEL
EAST ON SATURDAY INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE
MOISTURE...LACK OF INSTABILITY AND TIGHT GRADIENT OF THE RAIN MAKE
THE POPS FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. INITIALLY SHAPED POPS FOR AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT TOWARDS A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW AND HRRR...THEN LEANED
TOWARDS GFS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WHILE IN THE NORTH SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE HIGH CENTER
COMPLICATES THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE STEADY
OR FALLING IN THE WEST...WHILE IN THE EAST...A SLOWLY RISE MAY BE
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH SHOULD FINALLY GIVE
ENOUGH PUSH ON THE RESIDUAL FRONT TO SHOVE IT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER LATEST SOLUTIONS A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS WITH THE SREF KEEPING SHOWERS GOING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
INTO THE EVENING. THUS LAGGED PCPN EXODUS A FEW HOURS WITH POPS
LINGERING MAINLY BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST DURING SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DRYING THINGS OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ENOUGH
COOL ADVECTION WITH SOME LATE NIGHT CLEARING SPCLY NORTHWEST TO
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 30S MOUNTAINS WITH LOW/MID 40S EAST.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING WEDGED IN
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SUPPORTS
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY AND CLEAR WITH SOME LATE NIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUDS SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LEFTOVER UPPER LOW ON THE TAIL OF THE PASSING 5H TROF FROM TODAY WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD AREA OF
WEAK OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING BACK OVER THE WEDGE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BEST MOISTURE/LIFT PROGGED
CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE TRAJECTORY
AROUND LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION THAT COULD
LIMIT INLAND SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT DRY AIR MAY TEND TO LIMIT OR
SLOW DOWN NORTHWARD EXPANSE OF SHOWERS SO SLOWED DOWN CHANCE POPS
TO SW SECTIONS MONDAY...WITH LOW POPS SPREADING NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE ANOTHER CLOUDY/DAMP PERIOD WITHIN THE WEDGE THAT
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON THE CHILLY SIDE MONDAY WITH MOST IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EST FRIDAY...
REMNANT SHORTWAVE TROF RESULTING FROM THE SMALL UPPER LOW BACK ACROSS
THE PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND...WILL FINALLY LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK SUPPRESSED SURFACE
LOW/COASTAL TROF TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TAKING DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POPS MAINLY EAST
TUESDAY AND LESS TO THE WEST BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER WEDGE WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY LIGHT PCPN TUESDAY BEFORE
THE SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL DRYING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A FASTER MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL THEN AGAIN TAKE
SHAPE TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK WITH THE WEDGE GIVING WAY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHARP BUT QUICK HITTER TYPE 5H TROF/COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A QUICK RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED SO MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY
EVENING FOR A COUPLE SHOWER BANDS BEFORE MUCH DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR
SWINGS IN ON STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY BE STRONG ENOUGH BOTH ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS BUT IFFY GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF MUCH COLD AIR.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WITH VERY DRY AIR UNDER BREEZY/COOLER CONDITIONS
ON FRIDAY BUT STILL HIGHS 50S WEST TO 60S EAST GIVEN THE QUICK EXODUS
OF THE COOL AIR ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1118 PM EST FRIDAY...
GRADUAL LOWERING OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS BACK INTO MVFR RANGE EXPECTED
AT MOST TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS (KROA...KLYH...KDAN...KBCB...
KBLF...KLWB) TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA...AND AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NORTHEAST
ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
SOME RESTRICTIONS INTO IFR RANGE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT AT/NEAR
KDAN...WHERE PROXIMITY TO MOIST AIR WEDGE CLOSER TO DEPARTING
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST. ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF INTRUSIONS
INTO IFR RANGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...LAMP GUIDANCE NOT ALL
THAT AGGRESSIVE IN DRIVING CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY DOWN THAT
FAR...AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME CONSIDERING
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA (EXCLUDING SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC) WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY MIXED.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NEAR HIGHER RIDGES AND ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON NW WINDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE) THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION
RIDES NE ALONG THE SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COOL AND DRY SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ARRIVAL OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UNRESTRICTED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...AS
ONSHORE FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL
MOIST WEDGE SITUATION FOR TUESDAY INTO PERHAPS WEDNESDAY...
CHARACTERIZED BY WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND THE THREAT
FOR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH ROANOKE AND
BLUEFIELD. SEE THE WBCRERRNK FOR DETAILS. BELOW ARE THE PREVIOUS
RECORDS FOR THE DATE (11/6).
ROA 79...2005...NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH SET TODAY AT 82
LYH 78...1978
DAN 81...2003
RNK 79...1961
BLF 74...1975...NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH SET TODAY AT 75
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM/WERT
NEAR TERM...KK/WERT
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...WERT
CLIMATE...JH/WERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1226 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A STALLED BOUNDARY
REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. A TROPICAL SYSTEM, NEWLY FORMED NEAR
THE BAHAMAS, IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST AND FORECAST
TO HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT, IF ANY AT ALL, ON SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A
CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TOMORROW, BUT ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVE
WEATHER AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF EVEN
SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A FEW OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF GLADES
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
WORKING INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER GLADES
COUNTY THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME
AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED NOV 8 3:46 PM EST /
.VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS WEEK...
SHORT TERM...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WAS ALSO A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WEAK LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT...AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT...AS THE DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE WORKS
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS COULD WORK INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW.
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. NHC IS FORECASTING THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE TO THE WNW/NW THROUGH THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE DRIER AIR
AROUND THE DISTURBANCE. THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT
RANGE ON MONDAY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION WHERE A LOW CHANCE OF POPS IS DEPICTED.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS NHC IS FORECASTING
THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE TO THE N/NE AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA AS THE WINDS
BECOME S/SW. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER
THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON
TUESDAY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGHS FOR ALL OF THE
ASOS SITES, AND CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR THE EAST COAST ASOS
SITES ON TUESDAY. MORE ON THIS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING BACK DRY AIR TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN DEPICTED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO MID-NOVEMBER
NORMALS INSTEAD OF THE NEAR-RECORD WARMTH OF RECENT DAYS.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
SWINGING TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THERE COULD BE A SMALL NORTHERLY SWELL AFFECTING THE PALM BEACH
WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE PALM BEACH SEAS TO INCREASE FROM 2 FEET TONIGHT
TO 4 FEET MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GULF
WATERS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE SUBSIDING MONDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...AS THE WINDS DECREASE IN SPEED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
11/9/15 11/9/15 11/10/15 11/10/15
CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS
PBI 87 89 - 1989 88 88 - 1987
FLL 87 91 - 1958 88 88 - 1987
MIA 88 89 - 1989 89 88 - 2000
APF 89 91 - 1946 85 92 - 1946
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 73 88 71 / 20 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 74 88 73 / 20 10 20 20
MIAMI 88 75 89 74 / 20 10 20 20
NAPLES 89 74 85 70 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
355 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE HRRR AND NAM12 PRODUCING MUCH LESS QPF THAN THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE MOISTURE
PROFILES SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS...THE MORE MOIST MODELS SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO SLIGHTLY DELAY PRECIPITATION ONSET ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR A DRIER THAN
EXPECTED SURFACE AIR MASS. THIS IN TURN WILL REVERBERATE THROUGH
OUT THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL...SO SLOWER WAS CONSIDERED BETTER
AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED. ALSO REDUCED MAXIMUM PRECIP CHANCES
FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY...GOING WITH MAX POPS OF AROUND 90 AS OPPOSED
TO THE 100 INHERITED FROM YESTERDAYS DAY SHIFT...SIMPLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATER THAN EXPECTED START TO THE RAIN TODAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR THAT IS IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...STILL
BELIEVE THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT SOME POINT TODAY. THE RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS FINALLY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA AROUND 20Z ON TUESDAY. THE IMPETUS FOR THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL WILL BE A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES ITS EAST NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT WILL
HELP DRAW ADDITIONAL LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
IN THE FORM OF A ROUGHLY 30KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
ALSO CREATE ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN.
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE
DAY TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATING THAT WE WILL NOT SEE A VERY BIG
RISE IN TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...IT WAS DECIDED TO ONCE AGAIN GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL THEN ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING A GREAT DEAL OVERNIGHT...SO WE WILL BE EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL WARM
UP IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL KEEP TOMORROWS HIGHS FROM REACHING
SEASONAL VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SWING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED STOUT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR TO OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES IN AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOLLOWING THE MOIST PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS WEEK...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE FOGGY. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS. THICKER CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...SO HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. MOST
LIKELY...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE TO OUR
WEST AND MARCH EAST TOWARDS US OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL
FOR THE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT. THE DEW POINTS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND
50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT...SO ANY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO COME
FROM ALOFT. THERE IS A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET HOWEVER...SO THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS A BIT LONGER INTO OUR AREA. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
IN THE HWO.
ONCE THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THINGS WILL
DRY OUT QUICKLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. BY
SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL BE REDUCED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S...AND
THEN WILL REBOUND TO THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ENSUES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. THIS
RETURN IN MOISTURE IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW EJECTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE SYSTEMS WILL JOIN FORCES TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING AROUND 12Z AT LOZ AND SME. THE RAIN
SHOULD REACH JKL BY 15Z AND SYM AND SJS BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z TODAY.
THE RAIN COULD PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES...AND THE ADDED
MOISTURE WILL ALSO CAUSE CIGS TO FALL TO LIFR LEVELS FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
314 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE HRRR AND NAM12 PRODUCING MUCH LESS QPF THAN THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE MOISTURE
PROFILES SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS...THE MORE MOIST MODELS SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO SLIGHTLY DELAY PRECIPITATION ONSET ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR A DRIER THAN
EXPECT SURFACE AIR MASS. THIS IN TURN WILL REVERBERATE THROUGH
OUT THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL...SO SLOWER WAS CONSIDERED BETTER
AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED. ALSO REDUCED MAXIMUM PRECIP CHANCES
FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY...GOING WITH MAX POPS OF AROUND 90 AS OPPOSED
TO THE 100 INHERITED FROM YESTERDAYS DAY SHIFT...SIMPLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATER THAN EXPECTED START TO THE RAIN TODAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR THAT IS IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...STILL
BELIEVE THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT SOME POINT TODAY. THE RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS FINALLY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA AROUND 20Z ON TUESDAY. THE IMPETUS FOR THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL WILL BE A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES ITS EAST NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT WILL
HELP DRAW ADDITIONAL LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
IN THE FORM OF A ROUGHLY 30KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
ALSO CREATE ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN.
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE
DAY TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATING THAT WE WILL NO SEE A VERY BIG RISE
IN TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...IT WAS DECIDED TO ONCE AGAIN GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL THEN ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING A GREAT DEAL OVERNIGHT...SO WE WILL BE EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL WARM
UP IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL KEEP TOMORROWS HIGHS FROM REACHING
SEASONAL VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. THIS
RETURN IN MOISTURE IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW EJECTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE SYSTEMS WILL JOIN FORCES TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING AROUND 12Z AT LOZ AND SME. THE RAIN
SHOULD REACH JKL BY 15Z AND SYM AND SJS BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z TODAY.
THE RAIN COULD PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES...AND THE ADDED
MOISTURE WILL ALSO CAUSE CIGS TO FALL TO LIFR LEVELS FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
431 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A SW
FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND A TROUGH INTO THE WRN PLAINS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 30F SOUTH CENTRAL
FOR SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE WI BORDER UNDER LIGHT WINDS/DECREASED
MIXING. MEANWHILE HIGHER READINGS (IN THE 40S) HAVE BEEN COMMON
ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES DUE TO GREATER MIXING FROM SW WINDS
GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TODAY
TO REACH VALUES AT LEAST AS HIGH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SUNDAY AS
TEMPS TO MIXING LEVEL (AROUND 900 MB) CONTINUE TO CLIMB. THUS...
EXPECT TEMPS ON THE HIGHER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SLACKENING SW GRAD WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO LOWER INTO THE MID 20S FOR SOME OF THE
FAVORED CENTRAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS WHILE MIXING FROM DIMINISHED SW
WINDS WILL STILL KEEP READINGS HIGHER FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER TUE INTO EARLY WED...WILL FOCUS ON
STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK.
HAVE SEEN A FEW CHANGES WITH MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE SYSTEM SINCE
LAST NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE CHANGES AS THE SYSTEM
IS JUST MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY SOME RELATIVELY MINOR TIMING/TRACK
DIFFERENCES...IN SHOWING A STACKED LOW (985MB MSLP) MOVING FROM JUST
S OF THE CWA AT 12Z THU TO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 18Z THU...THEN INTO
QUEBEC BY 06Z FRI. ONE OF THE BIGGER CHANGES SINCE LAST NIGHT IS
THAT MODELS NOW SHOW THE LOW FILLING AFTER IT MOVE E OF THE U.P. SO
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AT THIS TIME. A
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BRINGING COLDER AIR ALONG
WITH IT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER ON SAT WITH WARMER TEMPS BEHIND IT.
RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LATER IN THE DAY WED AND REALLY
PICKS UP LATE WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT WHEN MODELS SHOW AN INCH OR
MORE OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...BUT WITH WAA DO NOT EXPECT GALES OR WIND ADVISORIES
THEN. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER CHANCES WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. COLD AIR SURGING IN FROM THE W LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT
WILL BRING A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE AND LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS IT
LOOKED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A DECENT LAKE ENHANCEMENT
SETUP. NOT AS ALL CERTAIN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IT
IS...BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W-NW ON THU
AND WILL STAY UP INTO FRI NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. DID KNOCK WINDS DOWN SOME GIVEN TREND IN GUIDANCE OF THE
LOW FILLING AS IT MOVES E.
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SAT NIGHT...WILL JUST LET CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE POPULATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES WHICH
WILL GO AWAY MON MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
AS HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC...SW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY. SRLY WINDS AOB 20 KNOTS MON NIGHT
INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH E GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE
LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
319 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...BREEZY SW
WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN
HIGH PRES OVER OH/PA AND A TROUGH INTO THE WRN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI WITH LOWER READINGS AROUND 50 DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MIXING WITH PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID 30S...ESPECIALLY IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS WHERE READINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 40.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH VALUES AT LEAST AS
HIGH OR SLIGHTY HIGHER THAN TODAY AS 925-900 MB TEMPS CLIMB. SO...
EXPECT TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER TUE INTO EARLY WED...WILL FOCUS ON
STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK.
HAVE SEEN A FEW CHANGES WITH MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE SYSTEM SINCE
LAST NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE CHANGES AS THE SYSTEM
IS JUST MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY SOME RELATIVELY MINOR TIMING/TRACK
DIFFERENCES...IN SHOWING A STACKED LOW (985MB MSLP) MOVING FROM JUST
S OF THE CWA AT 12Z THU TO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 18Z THU...THEN INTO
QUEBEC BY 06Z FRI. ONE OF THE BIGGER CHANGES SINCE LAST NIGHT IS
THAT MODELS NOW SHOW THE LOW FILLING AFTER IT MOVE E OF THE U.P. SO
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AT THIS TIME. A
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BRINGING COLDER AIR ALONG
WITH IT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER ON SAT WITH WARMER TEMPS BEHIND IT.
RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LATER IN THE DAY WED AND REALLY
PICKS UP LATE WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT WHEN MODELS SHOW AN INCH OR
MORE OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...BUT WITH WAA DO NOT EXPECT GALES OR WIND ADVISORIES
THEN. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER CHANCES WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. COLD AIR SURGING IN FROM THE W LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT
WILL BRING A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE AND LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS IT
LOOKED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A DECENT LAKE ENHANCEMENT
SETUP. NOT AS ALL CERTAIN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IT
IS...BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W-NW ON THU
AND WILL STAY UP INTO FRI NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. DID KNOCK WINDS DOWN SOME GIVEN TREND IN GUIDANCE OF THE
LOW FILLING AS IT MOVES E.
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SAT NIGHT...WILL JUST LET CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE POPULATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES WHICH
WILL GO AWAY MON MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
AS HIGH PRES OVER OH/[A CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST...SW
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY. SRLY WINDS AOB 20 KNOTS MON INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH E
GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1247 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...BREEZY SW
WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN
HIGH PRES OVER OH/PA AND A TROUGH INTO THE WRN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI WITH LOWER READINGS AROUND 50 DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MIXING WITH PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID 30S...ESPECIALLY IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS WHERE READINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 40.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH VALUES AT LEAST AS
HIGH OR SLIGHTY HIGHER THAN TODAY AS 925-900 MB TEMPS CLIMB. SO...
EXPECT TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
...LATE WEEK STORM TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SOME SNOW...
ATTN IS SQUARELY ON STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE SYSTEM...BOTH AHEAD OF THE LOW AND AGAIN
BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. COLDER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE LOW ALONG WITH
ARRIVAL OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT/MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. ALL AREAS WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS ON
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE NEXT WEEKEND...THEN BIG DIFFERENCES OCCUR
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR WHAT OCCURS JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED DAYS 8-
10. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH TROUGHS/RIDGES...SO
NO NEED TO STRAY FM CONSENSUS ATTM.
BACK TO EARLY THIS WEEK. CONDITIONS APPEAR TRANQUIL UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OFF OF PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY TUESDAY THEN HEADS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WELL AGREED UPON BY MODELS TRACKS TO
CENTRAL KS BY THAT TIME. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE LOW...MAINLY IN THE H8-H7 LAYER...BUT IT REMAINS DRY BLO CLOUD
BASE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT POPS
STAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE. LATER WED AFTN INTO WED EVENING PVA AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT 295-305K
SFCS /H85-H6/ SHOULD SUPPORT WIDEPSREAD SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS /12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OVER 250M/ DRY SLOT ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR TSRA AS SHOWN BY SI/S NEAR ZERO. THOUGH COVERAGE OF
SHRA DECREASES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...CORE OF COLDEST
AIR ALOFT WITH UPR LOW CENTER COULD LEAD TO SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA.
KEPT MENTION OF TSRA IN UNTIL SI/S START RISING WELL ABOVE ZERO.
SFC LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FM NORTHERN OR NORTHEAST WI ON THURSDAY
MORNING TO NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN/EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY EARLY AFTN.
ECMWF FARTHER WEST WITH TRACK OF LOW COMPARED TO GFS AND GEM-NH.
ONCE THE LOW CROSSES EAST OF CWA ON THURSDAY AFTN...EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NW AND BEGIN INCREASING. TRACK OF LOW AND SPEED OF LOW
WILL HAVE LARGE BEARING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS INCREASE IN WIND OCCURS.
WITH A FARTHER EAST TRACK TO THE LOW IN GFS/ECMWF COMPARED TO RECENT
MODEL RUNS...WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG ACROSS LK SUPERIOR INTO THU
NIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT 35-40 KTS IN MIXED LAYER THOUGH...SO GUSTS
NEAR THE SHORE WOULD STILL BE NEAR ADVY.
ONCE COLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL BE
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MORE MIXING AND GALES OVER LK SUPERIOR WITH
ADVY WINDS /45+ MPH GUSTS/ NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE. GUSTS OVER LAND
IN THE 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ATTN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WILL ALSO BE ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WESTERN CWA. EXTENT
OF COLD AIR IS BECOMING MORE IN QUESTION THOUGH...RESULTING IN NOT
AS CLEAR CUT AS LAKE ENHANCED SCENARIO AS IT APPEARED 24 HR AGO.
MAIN ISSUE IS SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTN
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW THE WAVE DIGGING FARTHER
SOUTH AND THEREFORE ARE WARMER OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND UPR
MICHIGAN /H85 TEMPS AROUND -3C VERSUS THE GFS SHOWING AVG OF -7C/.
EITHER SCENARIO IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT BUT ECMWF AND
GEM-NH WOULD RESULT IN MORE MARGINAL SETUP FOR MUCH SNOWFALL. SINCE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE STILL OVER PACIFIC...PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THINGS TO CHANGE...SO WILL NOT CHANGE GOING FORECAST TOO MUCH. BUT
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL ALSO NOT MENTION THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES WHICH
WILL GO AWAY MON MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
AS HIGH PRES OVER OH/[A CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST...SW
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY. SRLY WINDS AOB 20 KNOTS MON INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH E
GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015
AT H5 UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. TROUGH MOVING INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RIDGING ALONG
THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF UPPER LOW AND WEAK RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
THERE IS A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER
TROUGH AND A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015
SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. DEW POINT SPREAD
DOWN TO ABOUT 1F ALONG THE NEBRASKA COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN THE VICINITY. STRONGER WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S.
LIGHTER WINDS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
AFTER A COMPARATIVELY WARM START TO THE MORNING AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND 60 OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20MPH. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE AND OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 30S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DECOUPLING OVER THE WEST AND
REMAINING UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE
30S NORTH CENTRAL AND THE 20S OVER THE WEST. DRY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS ON THE INTENSE MID-WEEK
CYCLONE. RAIN THAT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS FORECAST WITH
EXTREMELY GUSTY WIND. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THUS THE
ACCUMULATION FORECAST REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. BRIEF
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
OVERALL THERE/S BEEN LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS REGARDING
THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG MID LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND PROVIDE FOR INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION OF NEBRASKA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MIDLEVEL LOW WILL EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES
WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE
SYSTEM...NOW SUGGESTING THE H5 LOW OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. FROM THERE...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW AND ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE PLACES THE CWA
UNDER PERIODS OF FAVORABLE DEFORMATION AS THE STORM ADVANCES
EAST. THE FIRST BAND IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SW NEBRASKA NORTH INTO
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE NEXT
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. IN
BOTH CASES THE QPF WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY ANY
POTENTIAL CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. AT
THIS POINT THE MODELS FAVOR A LARGE AREA OF DRIZZLE OR WARM
SECTOR LIGHT RAIN...THUS NO IMPACTS INDICATED BY CONVECTION. SO
THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK...THUS WITH CONFIDENCE...POPS WERE
INCREASED IN THE AREAS OF FAVORED DEFORMATION. DESPITE THE SYSTEM
BEING DISCONNECTED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WOULD SUPPORT A QUICKER
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WHICH LAST INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO
CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT UNDER THE DEFORMATION BANDS DYNAMIC
COOLING WOULD PUSH T/S EVEN COOLER IT WAS DETERMINED THAT
RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS AT LESS THAN 3 INCHES...BUT WILL EXPAND THE AREAL
EXTENT TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS COMPLICATE THE FORECAST AND ANY POTENTIAL
HIGHLIGHTS. THE MODELS MAINTAIN H85 WINDS OF 55-65KTS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS ARE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND POINTS
EAST...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ANYWHERE
FROM 40-50KTS AT H85. WIND SPEEDS WERE RAMPED UP IN THE FORECAST
LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY...AND SEE NO REASON TO NOT PUSH
SPEEDS UP A FEW ADDITIONAL MPH TONIGHT. GUSTS OF 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS. IF SNOW IS REALIZED...A DRIVING SNOWFALL
WILL BE ANTICIPATED...BUT DRIFTING AND ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS IS
VISIBILITY WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO THE WARM SFC T/S.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEYOND 12Z THURSDAY. TRANSITORY
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE
INTENSE UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER
THE RIDGE WILL NOT LAST AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS. THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO TRAVEL BACK ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY...LEADING TO CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND
20S FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
AS THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINING ABSENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015
THE LATEST RAP MODEL OUTPUT IS PINNING FOG BETWEEN KOGA AND KIML
09Z-15Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THEN THE NAM
SOLN. ANYWHERE ACROSS SWRN NEB WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT...LESS
THAN 5 KTS...INCLUDING KLBF ARE CANDIDATES FOR FOG.
VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1124 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015
ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z MSL DATA CONTINUED SHOWING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN WYOMING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING CAUSES DECOUPLING FROM THE SURFACE. WITH THE CLEAR SKY AND
DEWPOINTS INCREASING ON THE SOUTH WIND...AREAS OF FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT TO MID MORNING MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
IN THE MID RANGE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LEADING
TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS THIS
MORNING PUSH A NICE TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR STRATUS TUESDAY
MORNING. THE CURRENT GRIDS DO HAVE A MENTION OF INCREASED CLOUD
COVER LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL LEFT UNTOUCHED
FROM THE PVS FCST. ON TUESDAY...SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H85 TEMPS TUES AFTN WILL
REACH 10 TO 13C WHICH IS AN INCREASE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST. THE
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED HIGHER AS WELL AND HAVE INCREASED HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
EXIT THE ROCKIES...WITH LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF OVER NWRN KS BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF TDY HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH
THE H5 LOW...HOWEVER THE GFS AND NAM SOLNS THIS MORNING WERE
NEARLY IDENTICAL IN THE H5 LOWS POSN AT 12Z WEDS. EVEN
COMPROMISING BETWEEN THE THREE SOLNS...A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
POP FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LIKELY POPS IN PLACE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CONSTANT WITH THE MID WEEK
FORECAST IS WIND POTENTIAL WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN OVER NORTHERN KS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN KS INTO SERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS.
THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM12 FROM THIS MORNING DEVELOP A SWATH OF 50+
KT H85 WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
60+ KT WINDS INDICATED IN THE ECMWF AND THE NAM12 SOLNS. WITH
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON WIND SPEEDS WEDS AFTN...DECIDED TO RAMP
UP WIND SPEEDS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MONITOR THIS AS A WIND
WARNING HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDS
AFTN. THE QPF FCST WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE.
THE MODELS DEVELOP TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
FIRST IS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN
CWA...WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPING CONDITIONS ARE MOST
FAVORABLE. THE SECOND DEVELOPS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDS
AFTERNOON IN A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE EXITING LOW. BOTH THESE AREAS QPF/S WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ITS IMPACTS ON MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THIS REASON...THE NAM12 SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH ITS QPF FORECAST IN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE
OPTED FOR THE LIGHTER QPF/S IN THE GFS SOLN. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN
PCPN LIES WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN WEDNESDAY AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST QPF`S FCSTD WITH THIS SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FINALLY...THE PTYPE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISCONECTED TO THE NRN STREAM...SO
ARCTIC AIR AND THE THREAT FOR RESULTANT SNOWFALL APPEARS LIMITED
ATTM. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM12 SOLNS THIS MORNING. THE NAM12
CONTINUES TO BE COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS. THE
NAM SUPPORTS SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE AND WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT SPREADING EAST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDING
DATA...EVEN THE COOLER NAM SOLN KEEPS SFC WET BULB ZERO TEMPS AND
NEAR SURFACE TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...WHILE THE GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE MID 30S WEDS AM. EVEN WITH THE COOLER NAM
SOLN...THERE IS A TIGHT WINDOW WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW...SO HAVE LIMITED ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...AND
KEPT THEM IN THE PANHANDLE...WESTERN SANDHILLS AND FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA. ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...HELD ONTO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AS BL TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 33 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE
WEDS AM. FURTHER EAST...TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S WEDS
AM WITH FCST HIGHS AROUND 40 WEDS AFTERNOON...SO AN ALL RAIN FCST
WILL BE RETAINED. THAT BEING SAID...WITH WINDS FORECAST AS STRONG
AS THEY ARE AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW IN THE WEST...WE MAY SEE SOME
SHORT DURATION WINTER STORM LIKE IMPACTS IN THE FAR SW AND WEST
FOR A 3 TO 6 HR WINDOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING HRS
ON WEDNESDAY. SINCE THERE IS STILL A BUNCH OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE AMOUNT OF QPF...TIME OF DAY BEING THE MORNING COMMUTE...AND
LOCATION OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WILL SEND OUT AN SPS
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE HIGHLIGHTING THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM AND THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITH IT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BEYOND THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SECOND SHOT OF STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HIGHS WILL STILL REACH
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. BEYOND THURSDAY...A ZONAL
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...TRANSITIONING EAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015
THE LATEST RAP MODEL OUTPUT IS PINNING FOG BETWEEN KOGA AND KIML
09Z-15Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THEN THE NAM
SOLN. ANYWHERE ACROSS SWRN NEB WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT...LESS
THAN 5 KTS...INCLUDING KLBF ARE CANDIDATES FOR FOG.
VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
316 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...COLD AIR DAMMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL OCCUR OVER THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST. ANOTHER HIGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE
SOUTH. GOOD DIFFLUENCE IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND
THE GFS FORECASTS GOOD LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST HRRR WRF
GUIDANCE SHOWS RESULTS LIKE THE MOIST GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...
BASICALLY AREAS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL FOLLOW THE
METEOROLOGY AND THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST THE OLD CCF PLUS POPS FOR
TODAY.
ONE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH WILL TEMPERATURES RISE...IF AT
ALL. TO START THE NIGHT...SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AS LOW AS THE MID
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THOSE
DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S ALMOST ENTIRELY ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THE GFS AND THE LATEST ECMWF KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE PRECIPITATION. WHILE
THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO BEAT OF LATE...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS GUIDANCE AND SHOW HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD WITH LITTLE RISE DURING THE DAY
THERE...TO THE MID 50S IN THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 60S LATE IN
THE DAY TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY IN THE RADAR DEPICTION DURING THE DAY...BUT GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE OR WARMER TODAY WITH
MUCAPE IN THE LOWEST 6KM BARELY REGISTERING. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER TODAY IF THE SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES ON THE NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS VERIFY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THERE SHOULD BE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND
25MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 AS WINDS AT 850MB AND
925MB INCREASE BY 18Z TO CLOSE TO 40KT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN
THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT OVERNIGHT THERE IS SOME TOP-DOWN DRYING
AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST DECENT
DRYING AT AND ABOVE ABOUT 600MB BY 12Z TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS GOOD
UPPER DIFFLUENCE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
70KT 300MB JET NEARBY EARLY TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODEST
850MB CONVERGENCE. THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER MAY BE DRIVEN BY WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MUCAPE TONIGHT
IS FORECAST TO ABOUT 100 TO 200J/KG CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE
BETTER INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LESSER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FORECAST
SOME DRYING BETWEEN 500MB AND 700MB BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BEFORE THE BUFR SOUNDINGS TEND TO MOISTEN SOME BY 03Z
OR SO WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY TOWARD
KRWI AND KFAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA DURING TUESDAY...A GRADUALLY DRIER AIR MASS SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THERE IS
FORECAST AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH SPREADING OVER THE AREA WITH K
INDICES GOING SHARPLY NEGATIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FALL FROM WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY TO LESS THAN AN INCH
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
REMAINING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING
TAKES PLACE. WILL HAVE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 20Z TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER WITH
QPF...AND THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MMEFS QPF IS VERY GOOD...WITH
THE SREF...GEFS AND NAEFS ALL SHOWING VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BASINS FROM JUST OVER AN INCH TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES.
THREE-HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 2.5 INCHES OR GREATER...AND
TWELVE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 3.5 INCHES OR GREATER WITH THE
MMEFS PROBABILITIES OF ANY MAINSTEM RIVER GOING INTO FLOOD BEING
ABOUT TEN PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT...FOR THIS FORECAST DO NOT
PLAN ON ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...THOUGH COULD IMAGINE SOME
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUANCES SHOULD SOME MORE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF HIGHS TODAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THEN
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES...
COOLEST TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER AND WARMEST NEAR INTERSTATE 95.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR AND JUST ENOUGH...EVEN MODEST
STIRRING...TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT NEAR 1000FT THAT FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED...DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND S/W RIDGING
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE THE AREA IN A WEST TO EAST
FASHION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...YIELDING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER... WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 1360S...THINK WE
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO
THE MAV VALUES. THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY
MORNING THANKS TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL GO WITH LOW TEMPS OF AROUND
50.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A MID LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE BEST COMBO OF MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS...WITH
ONLY LOW END CHANCE NW TO NOTHING SE. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
IN THIS DIRECTION...THEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE DRY. HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER
TO POSSIBLE MID 70S SE. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN L/W
TROUGH AXIS THIS WEEKEND WELL TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD/DRIER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...
WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME 70S FAR SOUTHEAST...WITH AN EXPECTED
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGH TEMPS BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE
30S...MAYBE A FEW 40S ON SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM MONDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH VFR AND MVFR TO IFR AND
LIFR OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE 06Z
VALID TAF PERIOD. THOSE LOW AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL
FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAKING SURFACE
WINDS MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY...BUT
THE GFS GUIDANCE AND THE LAV KEEP THE FRONT AND THE TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE MORE TOWARD THE COAST...AND WILL FOLLOW THAT GUIDANCE FOR
THIS FORECAST WHICH KEEPS SURFACE WINDS NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST OVER ALL
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH AND BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS FORECASTING EASTERLY WINDS TO 40KT AT KRWI BY
3000FT AROUND 21Z...LESSER EASTERLY WINDS MORE AROUND 30KT ELSEWHERE
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AT THAT TIME. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF IFR LOW CLOUDS IN CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...THEN A CHANCE OF AREAS OF LOW VFR
OR HIGH MVFR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS TO END
THE WEEK ON FRIDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1142 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...02Z SURFACE PLOT PLACES AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER MIDDLE AND EAST TENNESSEE. INFRARED/11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
RETROGRADING INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE. AS OF 8 PM CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND 50S SOUTH.
00Z WRF AND HRRR SHORT TERM MODEL ISENTROPIC SURFACES SUGGEST
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR
TRENDS THUS FAR SEEM TO AGREE WITH THIS THINKING. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES AND ANY OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AN INVERTED SFC TROF CURRENTLY STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD FROM A SFC
LOW LOCATED NEAR THE ALABAMA COAST TO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
INVERTED SFC TROF WILL MOVE WESTWARD AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS
TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COVER
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE RIVER. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE AS FAR WEST AS
JONESBORO ARKANSAS. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS FROM THE SYSTEM COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE CLOUDS SPREADING IN...EXPECT LOWS
NOT TO DROP AS LOW AS WHAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. IN
ADDITION...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THUS
WILL GO WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
40S TO LOWER 50S.
CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM MAY NOT MOVE OUT UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. THUS
EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
BY TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TURNING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
RETURN FLOW DOES NOT AS LOOK AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW/UPPER LOW WILL BE
VERTICALLY STACKED AND WILL TRACK FROM KANSAS TO WISCONSIN. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM MAY OCCLUDE PINCHING OFF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THAT WILL BE TRYING TO MOVE UP THE DELTA. THE GFS SHOWS NO
CAPE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF HAS VERY MEAGER AMOUNTS.
LOOKING AT ANALOG DATA FROM PAST EVENTS THAT LOOK SIMILAR TO WHAT
MODELS SUGGEST WILL HAPPEN ON WEDNESDAY...MORE OF THE EVENTS
PRODUCED NO SEVERE WEATHER THAN EVENTS THAT PRODUCED SEVERE
WEATHER. THUS EXPECT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE DIMINISHING. WHAT WILL LIKELY
HAPPEN WILL BE JUST A QLCS TO MOVE THROUGH WITH A SMALL TORNADO
RISK ON THE ONSET WHEN IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS/THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND THEN NO SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE LINE AS IT
CROSSES THE MS RIVER AS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS GET PINCHED OFF AS
THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY IS STILL SEVERAL PERIODS
AWAY AND THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BEAR WATCHING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE PRESSURE
OVER AL HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD NORTHWEST INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS
EVENING. 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT
OF AND UNDERLYING MVFR DECK...NORTHWEST OF MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK TO
THE SOUTHEAST. GFS LAMP GUIDANCE APPEARED TO HOLD ONTO THE MVFR
DECK TOO LONG INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE CHOSEN THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC NAM GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL DURING THE LATE
MONDAY EVENING MEM CARGO INBOUNDS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1050 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
PROGRESSED NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE A SURFACE
TROUGH HAS SETUP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS HAS COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WSR-88D SHOWS BEST AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH THIS HOUR...WHILE NORTH OF THIS A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING AND
POSSIBLY DRIER AIR IS STILL BEING OVERCOME. THIS GENERAL THOUGHT
IS SHOWING UP THE OBS FROM BOTH MESONETS AND ASOS/AWOS SITES
MEASURING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...WHILE ZERO TO TRACE
OCCURING IN THE NORTH. ATTEMPTED TO MAKE POPS REFLECT THIS TREND
OVERALL AND ALSO MATCH UP WITH OTHER OFFICES. MESO MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A REDEVELOP PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL HAVE TO
EVALUATE THAT FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. ALSO UPDATED
TEMP/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TREND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE HOURLY WEATHER OBS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. ALL IN ALL
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED AS FAR NORTH AS ROCKCASTLE...OWSLEY...PERRY AND PIKE
COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUT THE DAY AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE HRRR AND NAM12 PRODUCING MUCH LESS QPF THAN THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE MOISTURE
PROFILES SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS...THE MORE MOIST MODELS SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO SLIGHTLY DELAY PRECIPITATION ONSET ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR A DRIER THAN
EXPECTED SURFACE AIR MASS. THIS IN TURN WILL REVERBERATE THROUGH
OUT THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL...SO SLOWER WAS CONSIDERED BETTER
AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED. ALSO REDUCED MAXIMUM PRECIP CHANCES
FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY...GOING WITH MAX POPS OF AROUND 90 AS OPPOSED
TO THE 100 INHERITED FROM YESTERDAYS DAY SHIFT...SIMPLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATER THAN EXPECTED START TO THE RAIN TODAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR THAT IS IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...STILL
BELIEVE THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT SOME POINT TODAY. THE RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS FINALLY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA AROUND 20Z ON TUESDAY. THE IMPETUS FOR THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL WILL BE A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES ITS EAST NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT WILL
HELP DRAW ADDITIONAL LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
IN THE FORM OF A ROUGHLY 30KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
ALSO CREATE ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN.
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE
DAY TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATING THAT WE WILL NOT SEE A VERY BIG
RISE IN TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...IT WAS DECIDED TO ONCE AGAIN GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL THEN ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING A GREAT DEAL OVERNIGHT...SO WE WILL BE EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL WARM
UP IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL KEEP TOMORROWS HIGHS FROM REACHING
SEASONAL VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SWING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED STOUT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR TO OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES IN AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOLLOWING THE MOIST PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS WEEK...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE FOGGY. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS. THICKER CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...SO HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. MOST
LIKELY...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE TO OUR
WEST AND MARCH EAST TOWARDS US OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL
FOR THE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT. THE DEW POINTS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND
50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT...SO ANY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO COME
FROM ALOFT. THERE IS A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET HOWEVER...SO THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS A BIT LONGER INTO OUR AREA. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
IN THE HWO.
ONCE THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THINGS WILL
DRY OUT QUICKLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. BY
SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL BE REDUCED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S...AND
THEN WILL REBOUND TO THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ENSUES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR THE SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN VERY LIGHT IN NATURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT LOZ
AND SME WITH LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING. JKL CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE FIRST
RAIN SHOWERS BY 13Z...WITH MODERATE RAIN MOVING IN BETWEEN 14 AND
15Z TODAY. SJS AND SYM SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
BY AROUND 16Z...WITH MODERATE RAIN ON TAP FROM 18Z ONWARD. MVFR TO
IFR CIGS...ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST
OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT EACH TAF SITE...DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE RAIN AT ANY GIVEN TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
649 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE HOURLY WEATHER OBS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. ALL IN ALL
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED AS FAR NORTH AS ROCKCASTLE...OWSLEY...PERRY AND PIKE
COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUT THE DAY AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE HRRR AND NAM12 PRODUCING MUCH LESS QPF THAN THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE MOISTURE
PROFILES SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS...THE MORE MOIST MODELS SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO SLIGHTLY DELAY PRECIPITATION ONSET ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR A DRIER THAN
EXPECTED SURFACE AIR MASS. THIS IN TURN WILL REVERBERATE THROUGH
OUT THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL...SO SLOWER WAS CONSIDERED BETTER
AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED. ALSO REDUCED MAXIMUM PRECIP CHANCES
FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY...GOING WITH MAX POPS OF AROUND 90 AS OPPOSED
TO THE 100 INHERITED FROM YESTERDAYS DAY SHIFT...SIMPLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATER THAN EXPECTED START TO THE RAIN TODAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR THAT IS IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...STILL
BELIEVE THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT SOME POINT TODAY. THE RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS FINALLY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA AROUND 20Z ON TUESDAY. THE IMPETUS FOR THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL WILL BE A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES ITS EAST NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT WILL
HELP DRAW ADDITIONAL LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
IN THE FORM OF A ROUGHLY 30KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
ALSO CREATE ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN.
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE
DAY TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATING THAT WE WILL NOT SEE A VERY BIG
RISE IN TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...IT WAS DECIDED TO ONCE AGAIN GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL THEN ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING A GREAT DEAL OVERNIGHT...SO WE WILL BE EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL WARM
UP IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL KEEP TOMORROWS HIGHS FROM REACHING
SEASONAL VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SWING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED STOUT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR TO OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES IN AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOLLOWING THE MOIST PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS WEEK...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE FOGGY. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS. THICKER CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...SO HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. MOST
LIKELY...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE TO OUR
WEST AND MARCH EAST TOWARDS US OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL
FOR THE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT. THE DEW POINTS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND
50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT...SO ANY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO COME
FROM ALOFT. THERE IS A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET HOWEVER...SO THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS A BIT LONGER INTO OUR AREA. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
IN THE HWO.
ONCE THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THINGS WILL
DRY OUT QUICKLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. BY
SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL BE REDUCED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S...AND
THEN WILL REBOUND TO THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ENSUES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR THE SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN VERY LIGHT IN NATURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT LOZ
AND SME WITH LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING. JKL CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE FIRST
RAIN SHOWERS BY 13Z...WITH MODERATE RAIN MOVING IN BETWEEN 14 AND
15Z TODAY. SJS AND SYM SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
BY AROUND 16Z...WITH MODERATE RAIN ON TAP FROM 18Z ONWARD. MVFR TO
IFR CIGS...ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST
OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT EACH TAF SITE...DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE RAIN AT ANY GIVEN TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
628 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE HRRR AND NAM12 PRODUCING MUCH LESS QPF THAN THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE MOISTURE
PROFILES SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS...THE MORE MOIST MODELS SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO SLIGHTLY DELAY PRECIPITATION ONSET ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR A DRIER THAN
EXPECTED SURFACE AIR MASS. THIS IN TURN WILL REVERBERATE THROUGH
OUT THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL...SO SLOWER WAS CONSIDERED BETTER
AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED. ALSO REDUCED MAXIMUM PRECIP CHANCES
FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY...GOING WITH MAX POPS OF AROUND 90 AS OPPOSED
TO THE 100 INHERITED FROM YESTERDAYS DAY SHIFT...SIMPLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATER THAN EXPECTED START TO THE RAIN TODAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR THAT IS IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...STILL
BELIEVE THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT SOME POINT TODAY. THE RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS FINALLY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA AROUND 20Z ON TUESDAY. THE IMPETUS FOR THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL WILL BE A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES ITS EAST NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT WILL
HELP DRAW ADDITIONAL LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
IN THE FORM OF A ROUGHLY 30KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
ALSO CREATE ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN.
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE
DAY TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATING THAT WE WILL NOT SEE A VERY BIG
RISE IN TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...IT WAS DECIDED TO ONCE AGAIN GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL THEN ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING A GREAT DEAL OVERNIGHT...SO WE WILL BE EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL WARM
UP IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL KEEP TOMORROWS HIGHS FROM REACHING
SEASONAL VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SWING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED STOUT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR TO OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES IN AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOLLOWING THE MOIST PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS WEEK...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE FOGGY. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS. THICKER CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...SO HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. MOST
LIKELY...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE TO OUR
WEST AND MARCH EAST TOWARDS US OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL
FOR THE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT. THE DEW POINTS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND
50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT...SO ANY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO COME
FROM ALOFT. THERE IS A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET HOWEVER...SO THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS A BIT LONGER INTO OUR AREA. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
IN THE HWO.
ONCE THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THINGS WILL
DRY OUT QUICKLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. BY
SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL BE REDUCED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S...AND
THEN WILL REBOUND TO THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ENSUES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR THE SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN VERY LIGHT IN NATURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT LOZ
AND SME WITH LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING. JKL CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE FIRST
RAIN SHOWERS BY 13Z...WITH MODERATE RAIN MOVING IN BETWEEN 14 AND
15Z TODAY. SJS AND SYM SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
BY AROUND 16Z...WITH MODERATE RAIN ON TAP FROM 18Z ONWARD. MVFR TO
IFR CIGS...ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST
OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT EACH TAF SITE...DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE RAIN AT ANY GIVEN TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
619 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A SW
FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND A TROUGH INTO THE WRN PLAINS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 30F SOUTH CENTRAL
FOR SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE WI BORDER UNDER LIGHT WINDS/DECREASED
MIXING. MEANWHILE HIGHER READINGS (IN THE 40S) HAVE BEEN COMMON
ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES DUE TO GREATER MIXING FROM SW WINDS
GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TODAY
TO REACH VALUES AT LEAST AS HIGH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SUNDAY AS
TEMPS TO MIXING LEVEL (AROUND 900 MB) CONTINUE TO CLIMB. THUS...
EXPECT TEMPS ON THE HIGHER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SLACKENING SW GRAD WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO LOWER INTO THE MID 20S FOR SOME OF THE
FAVORED CENTRAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS WHILE MIXING FROM DIMINISHED SW
WINDS WILL STILL KEEP READINGS HIGHER FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER TUE INTO EARLY WED...WILL FOCUS ON
STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK.
HAVE SEEN A FEW CHANGES WITH MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE SYSTEM SINCE
LAST NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE CHANGES AS THE SYSTEM
IS JUST MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY SOME RELATIVELY MINOR TIMING/TRACK
DIFFERENCES...IN SHOWING A STACKED LOW (985MB MSLP) MOVING FROM JUST
S OF THE CWA AT 12Z THU TO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 18Z THU...THEN INTO
QUEBEC BY 06Z FRI. ONE OF THE BIGGER CHANGES SINCE LAST NIGHT IS
THAT MODELS NOW SHOW THE LOW FILLING AFTER IT MOVE E OF THE U.P. SO
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AT THIS TIME. A
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BRINGING COLDER AIR ALONG
WITH IT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER ON SAT WITH WARMER TEMPS BEHIND IT.
RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LATER IN THE DAY WED AND REALLY
PICKS UP LATE WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT WHEN MODELS SHOW AN INCH OR
MORE OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...BUT WITH WAA DO NOT EXPECT GALES OR WIND ADVISORIES
THEN. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER CHANCES WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. COLD AIR SURGING IN FROM THE W LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT
WILL BRING A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE AND LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS IT
LOOKED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A DECENT LAKE ENHANCEMENT
SETUP. NOT AS ALL CERTAIN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IT
IS...BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W-NW ON THU
AND WILL STAY UP INTO FRI NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. DID KNOCK WINDS DOWN SOME GIVEN TREND IN GUIDANCE OF THE
LOW FILLING AS IT MOVES E.
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SAT NIGHT...WILL JUST LET CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE POPULATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
AS HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC...SW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY. SRLY WINDS AOB 20 KNOTS MON NIGHT
INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH E GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE
LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1024 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY TO THE
REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL
SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS INVERSION HAS BROKEN AND
HOURLY TRENDS WERE SURGING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED UNDER FULL SUN AND
MODERATING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE WORKED THESE ISSUES THROUGH
USING THE HRRR MESOSCALE DATA...WHICH HAS ALSO BUMPED THE MAX
TEMPS UP TO THE MID-UPR 50S. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY AND BRING
THE AREA A MODERATING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAXES RANGING IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF IN THE MID WEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z TUE THEN INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUE TO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z WED. AS THIS OCCURS SFC LOW
PRES WILL LIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT THEN TO
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MUCH OF THE RAINFALL FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE FA WITH ACTIVITY HERE BEING FORCED
PRIMARILY BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. TREND HAS ALSO BEEN TO SLOW
THE ONSET OF RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER NE PA AND THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE OCCURRING EVERYWHERE. LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TOTAL PRECIP FOR THE REGION WILL
RANGE FROM A HALF INCH IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER.
WEDNESDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EAST OF I81. BY
AFTERNOON SFC HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY AND MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
THE FAR WESTERN CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM. MODELS VERY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER
AND PREVIOUS RUNS. UNSETTLED AND BECOMING COOLER WITH MORE PRECIP
IN NY THAN PA. THURSDAY LEFT POPS HIGH LIKELY BUT CAT ON SOME
MODELS. ALSO FRIDAY TO SAT NGT NORTHERN ONEIDA HAS ONLY CHC POPS
BUT THAT COULD BE HIGHER WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW AND LAKE MOISTURE
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO THE TUG.
1 PM SUNDAY UPDATE... A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD APPEARS TO BE IN
STORE, WITH SHOWERY/MILD CONDITIONS TO START OFF THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY CHILLIER TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TRANSLATES THROUGH THE FLOW, AND AFFECTS THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THURSDAY, READINGS WILL
BE BACK MAINLY IN THE 40S FROM FRIDAY-SUNDAY. A COMBINATION OF
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT, COULD ALSO BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BY DAY, AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS COMING IN LATE EVE FROM THE S. LOW END VFR TOWARD
12Z TUESDAY WITH RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
ONLY QUESTION WAS FOG AT KELM. IFR CIGS STARTED AROUND 10Z AND
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 13 OR MAYBE 14Z. SATELLITE AND OBS NOT
SHOWING THAT IS WIDESPREAD AND ONLY IN THE LARGER RIVER VALLEYS.
WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING. FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT TO CALM
AND MAINLY EAST.
.OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUE NGT... RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AREAWIDE IN RAIN.
WED-WED NGT... MAINLY VFR.
THU... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...JAB/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
925 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE LOWS COMBINED WITH A CHILLY
AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 925 AM MONDAY...
PRIMARY CHANGES THIS MORNING DEAL WITH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP
TRENDS. BAND OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NC IS BEING DRIVEN
BY A SHOT OF STRONG MOIST UPGLIDE ATTENDING A LOBE OF MID LEVEL
VORTICITY TRANSLATING TO THE NNE THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THIS LATTER
FEATURES PIVOTS TO OUR NORTH... MODELS DEPICT SOME DRYING ALOFT
ABOVE 0C WHICH SHOULD LESSEN PRECIP INTENSITY... ALTHOUGH THE MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG
WELL INTO TONIGHT... THUS THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN HIGH. SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED BATCHES OF CONVECTION OVER NRN
FL (NE OF THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE) AND OFF THE SC
COAST ARE LIKELY TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST INTO EARLY EVENING...
AS WE`RE LACKING A MECHANISM FOR THE COASTAL FRONT TO PUSH WELL
WESTWARD UNTIL PERHAPS LATER TONIGHT... GIVEN THAT THE WEDGE REGIME
IS QUITE ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL NC. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... SHOWING A VERY
SLOW RISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD... GREATER EAST OF THE I-95 THAN
ELSEWHERE AS THE STABLE POOL DEPTH SHOULD BE DECREASING ALONG ITS
EDGE. THIS TRANSLATES INTO "HIGHS" TODAY OF 46-66 AND "LOWS" TONIGHT
OF 45-64. WILL WAIT UNTIL A THOROUGH LOOK AT MORNING GUIDANCE BEFORE
ADJUSTING TONIGHT`S FORECAST ANY FURTHER... AS THE TRACK OF ANY
SURFACE LOW OVER ERN NC WILL IMPACT NOT ONLY TEMPS BUT HOW MUCH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED IN OUR FAR ERN COUNTIES
(CURRENTLY A FAIRLY LOW POTENTIAL). EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 0.75" TO 1.5"... HIGHEST IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 315 AM:
AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE
SOUTH. GOOD DIFFLUENCE IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND
THE GFS FORECASTS GOOD LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST HRRR WRF
GUIDANCE SHOWS RESULTS LIKE THE MOIST GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...
BASICALLY AREAS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL FOLLOW THE
METEOROLOGY AND THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST THE OLD CCF PLUS POPS FOR
TODAY.
ONE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH WILL TEMPERATURES RISE...IF AT
ALL. TO START THE NIGHT...SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AS LOW AS THE MID
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THOSE
DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S ALMOST ENTIRELY ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THE GFS AND THE LATEST ECMWF KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE PRECIPITATION. WHILE
THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO BEAT OF LATE...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS GUIDANCE AND SHOW HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD WITH LITTLE RISE DURING THE DAY
THERE...TO THE MID 50S IN THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 60S LATE IN
THE DAY TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY IN THE RADAR DEPICTION DURING THE DAY...BUT GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE OR WARMER TODAY WITH
MUCAPE IN THE LOWEST 6KM BARELY REGISTERING. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER TODAY IF THE SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES ON THE NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS VERIFY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THERE SHOULD BE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND
25MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 AS WINDS AT 850MB AND
925MB INCREASE BY 18Z TO CLOSE TO 40KT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN
THE DAY. -DJF
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT OVERNIGHT THERE IS SOME TOP-DOWN DRYING
AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST DECENT
DRYING AT AND ABOVE ABOUT 600MB BY 12Z TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS GOOD
UPPER DIFFLUENCE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
70KT 300MB JET NEARBY EARLY TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODEST
850MB CONVERGENCE. THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER MAY BE DRIVEN BY WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MUCAPE TONIGHT
IS FORECAST TO ABOUT 100 TO 200J/KG CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE
BETTER INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LESSER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FORECAST
SOME DRYING BETWEEN 500MB AND 700MB BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BEFORE THE BUFR SOUNDINGS TEND TO MOISTEN SOME BY 03Z
OR SO WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY TOWARD
KRWI AND KFAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA DURING TUESDAY...A GRADUALLY DRIER AIR MASS SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THERE IS
FORECAST AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH SPREADING OVER THE AREA WITH K
INDICES GOING SHARPLY NEGATIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FALL FROM WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY TO LESS THAN AN INCH
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
REMAINING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING
TAKES PLACE. WILL HAVE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 20Z TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER WITH
QPF...AND THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MMEFS QPF IS VERY GOOD...WITH
THE SREF...GEFS AND NAEFS ALL SHOWING VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BASINS FROM JUST OVER AN INCH TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES.
THREE-HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 2.5 INCHES OR GREATER...AND
TWELVE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 3.5 INCHES OR GREATER WITH THE
MMEFS PROBABILITIES OF ANY MAINSTEM RIVER GOING INTO FLOOD BEING
ABOUT TEN PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT...FOR THIS FORECAST DO NOT
PLAN ON ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...THOUGH COULD IMAGINE SOME
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUANCES SHOULD SOME MORE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF HIGHS TODAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THEN
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES...
COOLEST TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER AND WARMEST NEAR INTERSTATE 95.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR AND JUST ENOUGH...EVEN MODEST
STIRRING...TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT NEAR 1000FT THAT FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED...DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND S/W RIDGING
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE THE AREA IN A WEST TO EAST
FASHION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...YIELDING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER... WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 1360S...THINK WE
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO
THE MAV VALUES. THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY
MORNING THANKS TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL GO WITH LOW TEMPS OF AROUND
50.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A MID LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE BEST COMBO OF MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS...WITH
ONLY LOW END CHANCE NW TO NOTHING SE. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
IN THIS DIRECTION...THEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE DRY. HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER
TO POSSIBLE MID 70S SE. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN L/W
TROUGH AXIS THIS WEEKEND WELL TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD/DRIER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...
WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME 70S FAR SOUTHEAST...WITH AN EXPECTED
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGH TEMPS BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE
30S...MAYBE A FEW 40S ON SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND LIFR
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOW AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND AT
LEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE
COASTAL FRONT MAY MAKE SLIGHT PROGRESS INLAND AND GET CLOSE TO
INTERSTATE 95 OVERNIGHT...BUT INSTEAD OF FORECASTING ANY SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS AND LAV
GUIDANCE AND FORECAST A CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CLOSE AT KRWI AND KFAY OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS OFF OF
THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS FORECASTING
EASTERLY WINDS TO 40KT AT KRWI BY 3000FT AROUND 21Z...LESSER
EASTERLY WINDS MORE AROUND 30KT ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AT THAT TIME. THESE WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING TO GENERALLY 10 TO 20KT. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
THERE IS CURRENTLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF IFR LOW CLOUDS IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...THEN A CHANCE OF AREAS
OF LOW VFR OR HIGH MVFR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEK ON FRIDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
642 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...COLD AIR DAMMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL OCCUR OVER THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST. ANOTHER HIGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE
SOUTH. GOOD DIFFLUENCE IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND
THE GFS FORECASTS GOOD LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST HRRR WRF
GUIDANCE SHOWS RESULTS LIKE THE MOIST GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...
BASICALLY AREAS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL FOLLOW THE
METEOROLOGY AND THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST THE OLD CCF PLUS POPS FOR
TODAY.
ONE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH WILL TEMPERATURES RISE...IF AT
ALL. TO START THE NIGHT...SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AS LOW AS THE MID
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THOSE
DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S ALMOST ENTIRELY ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THE GFS AND THE LATEST ECMWF KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE PRECIPITATION. WHILE
THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO BEAT OF LATE...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS GUIDANCE AND SHOW HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD WITH LITTLE RISE DURING THE DAY
THERE...TO THE MID 50S IN THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 60S LATE IN
THE DAY TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY IN THE RADAR DEPICTION DURING THE DAY...BUT GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE OR WARMER TODAY WITH
MUCAPE IN THE LOWEST 6KM BARELY REGISTERING. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER TODAY IF THE SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES ON THE NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS VERIFY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THERE SHOULD BE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND
25MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 AS WINDS AT 850MB AND
925MB INCREASE BY 18Z TO CLOSE TO 40KT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN
THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT OVERNIGHT THERE IS SOME TOP-DOWN DRYING
AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST DECENT
DRYING AT AND ABOVE ABOUT 600MB BY 12Z TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS GOOD
UPPER DIFFLUENCE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
70KT 300MB JET NEARBY EARLY TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODEST
850MB CONVERGENCE. THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER MAY BE DRIVEN BY WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MUCAPE TONIGHT
IS FORECAST TO ABOUT 100 TO 200J/KG CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE
BETTER INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LESSER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FORECAST
SOME DRYING BETWEEN 500MB AND 700MB BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BEFORE THE BUFR SOUNDINGS TEND TO MOISTEN SOME BY 03Z
OR SO WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY TOWARD
KRWI AND KFAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA DURING TUESDAY...A GRADUALLY DRIER AIR MASS SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THERE IS
FORECAST AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH SPREADING OVER THE AREA WITH K
INDICES GOING SHARPLY NEGATIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FALL FROM WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY TO LESS THAN AN INCH
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
REMAINING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING
TAKES PLACE. WILL HAVE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 20Z TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER WITH
QPF...AND THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MMEFS QPF IS VERY GOOD...WITH
THE SREF...GEFS AND NAEFS ALL SHOWING VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BASINS FROM JUST OVER AN INCH TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES.
THREE-HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 2.5 INCHES OR GREATER...AND
TWELVE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 3.5 INCHES OR GREATER WITH THE
MMEFS PROBABILITIES OF ANY MAINSTEM RIVER GOING INTO FLOOD BEING
ABOUT TEN PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT...FOR THIS FORECAST DO NOT
PLAN ON ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...THOUGH COULD IMAGINE SOME
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUANCES SHOULD SOME MORE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF HIGHS TODAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THEN
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES...
COOLEST TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER AND WARMEST NEAR INTERSTATE 95.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR AND JUST ENOUGH...EVEN MODEST
STIRRING...TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT NEAR 1000FT THAT FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED...DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND S/W RIDGING
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE THE AREA IN A WEST TO EAST
FASHION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...YIELDING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER... WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 1360S...THINK WE
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO
THE MAV VALUES. THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY
MORNING THANKS TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL GO WITH LOW TEMPS OF AROUND
50.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A MID LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE BEST COMBO OF MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS...WITH
ONLY LOW END CHANCE NW TO NOTHING SE. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
IN THIS DIRECTION...THEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE DRY. HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER
TO POSSIBLE MID 70S SE. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN L/W
TROUGH AXIS THIS WEEKEND WELL TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD/DRIER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...
WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME 70S FAR SOUTHEAST...WITH AN EXPECTED
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGH TEMPS BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE
30S...MAYBE A FEW 40S ON SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND LIFR
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOW AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND AT
LEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE
COASTAL FRONT MAY MAKE SLIGHT PROGRESS INLAND AND GET CLOSE TO
INTERSTATE 95 OVERNIGHT...BUT INSTEAD OF FORECASTING ANY SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS AND LAV
GUIDANCE AND FORECAST A CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CLOSE AT KRWI AND KFAY OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS OFF OF
THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS FORECASTING
EASTERLY WINDS TO 40KT AT KRWI BY 3000FT AROUND 21Z...LESSER
EASTERLY WINDS MORE AROUND 30KT ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AT THAT TIME. THESE WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING TO GENERALLY 10 TO 20KT. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
THERE IS CURRENTLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF IFR LOW CLOUDS IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...THEN A CHANCE OF AREAS
OF LOW VFR OR HIGH MVFR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEK ON FRIDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
529 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY IS FORECAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. KAMA VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 40 KT JUST OFF THE SURFACE. RUC 850 MB
ANALYSES SHOW CORE OF STRONGER WINDS SITUATED NEAR KAMA...WITH LESSER
SPEEDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THUS...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 30 KT TODAY AT KAMA...AND TO AROUND 25 KT
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO BELOW
15 KT AT ALL TERMINALS BY 00Z TUESDAY. NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE. MAIN FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE ON A VERY DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THE STRONG
WINDS IT WILL BRING TO THE PANHANDLES. A BRIEF WARMING TREND TODAY
AND TOMORROW...WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S
TOMORROW. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AFTER THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER...WITH MORE TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED FOR NIGHTS
AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
REGARDING THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION AND POSSIBLE
IMPACTS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE WILL AID IN WARMING TEMPS AND DRYING OUT THE SURFACE AIR
TODAY AND TOMORROW. PRESSURE AND HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM AS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 20 KTS ON
TUESDAY AND AROUND 25 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. CLOSER TO THE LOW...AREAS IN
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE COULD SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 TO 35 KTS FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE LIMITED WIND GUSTS TO GO NO HIGHER THAN 49
KTS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE THOSE AREAS COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 55 KT RANGE /HIGH WIND WARNING RANGE/ ON
WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY...AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KTS ARE MORE
CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. ALSO
MENTIONED PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME DUE TO POSSIBLE EXPOSED FIELDS WITH THE FALL HARVEST ONGOING.
MOST OF THE PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES TO GET
SQUEEZED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH.
NF
FIRE WEATHER...
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS MOST OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES...THAT NO FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER ON TUESDAY...AND ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO
MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRICKIER...AS WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONCERN...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD
STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE COULD STILL SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...SO SOME POSSIBILITY FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THOSE AREAS ON WEDNESDAY.
NF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 70 44 78 44 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 67 43 79 45 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 65 38 73 38 54 / 0 0 0 5 10
BORGER TX 71 48 80 47 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 72 42 79 43 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 70 43 78 43 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 70 45 78 45 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 69 39 76 42 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 67 41 78 44 58 / 0 0 0 0 5
HEREFORD TX 71 42 76 43 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 67 46 80 48 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 69 46 77 45 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 67 46 78 48 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 69 47 79 49 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1112 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR INTERIOR SOUTH FL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE AS DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES ADVANCE TO THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST THIS SLIGHT RISK OF TSTORM
MENTION IN THE FORECAST...AND IS IN LINE WITH SPC AS WELL AS OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THE MAIN RISK FROM ANY TSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP
WOULD BE LIGHTNING STRIKES. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. JUST A FEW SHRA ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE A TSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE ESE 5-10 KT, EXCEPT BECOMING
SW AT KAPF. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IT IS FORECAST TO HAVE VERY
LITTLE IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO, THERE
IS A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND
THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER.
SO, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST, BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED AND SHORT DURATION, WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY OR CIGS. THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS, THE UNCERTAINTY IS FAR TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY
OF THE FORECAST PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME, BUT THERE IS STILL A REMOTE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED STORM, MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, THEN
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...
THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION INCLUDE
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.
AS FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE...ACCORDING TO THE OFFICIAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OFFICIAL TRACK, IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION BY
TONIGHT, THEN NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST, PLEASE CONSULT THE OFFICIAL
PRODUCTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. AS FOR ANY IMPACTS ON
SOUTH FLORIDA, NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. IN ADDITION
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY DIRECT MARINE IMPACTS
AS ITS TRACK AND ITS FORECAST ACCELERATION WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE
FOR GENERATING LONG PERIOD LARGE SWELL. THEREFORE NO DIRECT
IMPACTS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS FORECAST.
FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW AND DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD WITH THE LOW MOVING
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND THE DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT ENTERING THE LOCAL GULF WATERS AND THE LAKE REGION THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE WILL KEEP RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EASTERN PENINSULA. BUT THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GENERAL INSTABILITY
SUCH THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR
REGIONS WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL IN GENERAL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND NONE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS THERE HAVE BEEN NEAR RECORD SETTING OR
RECORD SETTING HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
ALSO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY TREND
DOWN A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. AS THE
DIFFUSE FRONT AFFECTS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...REGIONAL TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE FORECAST.
FOR TUESDAY....BY TUESDAY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE IS FORECAST
TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA IS ALSO FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE TUESDAY...BUT
BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THE GULF
WATERS. THE ONLY IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA IS LIKELY GOING TO BE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LIKELY BEING ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE EXTENDED FORECAST....TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BUT LATER ON
WEDNESDAY A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED. THERE IS NO STRONG RIDGE
FORECAST BEHIND THE DIFFUSE FRONT AND THE FRONT AND BOUNDARY
MOISTURE COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA OR
THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE WEEK WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LATEST
EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES SIMILAR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MARINE...
NEED TO RE-EMPHASIZE THAT NO DIRECT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE ARE FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWEST TODAY THEN MORE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION TUESDAY THEN LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE BY MID-WEEK.
THROUGH MID-WEEK...WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA LATE WEEK INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS WINDS OR POSSIBLY HIGHER
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH INCREASING REGIONAL SEAS.
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS SCENARIO PERSISTS IN FUTURE
GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 74 88 71 / 20 20 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 74 87 73 / 20 20 20 30
MIAMI 88 75 88 74 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 88 74 85 70 / 20 20 30 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
400 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
AFTERNOON SURFACE CHART INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF
SHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BROUGHT DECENT SOAKING RAIN THE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEARER THE VA BORDER TODAY...HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING AND
DRIER AIR SEEM TO WAIN THE PRODUCTION IN MOST AREAS OF EASTERN KY.
THAT SAID THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS AIDED IN THIS PROCESS IS
PROGGED TO BE ACROSS MO THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO EJECT
ENE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE AS ENERGY TRAVERSES EAST AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MULTIPLE MODELS AND GUIDANCE PRODUCTS WANT TO DEVELOP A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND MOVE IT DUE NORTH OVERNIGHT...THERE IS ALSO A
DECENT 850MB JET THAT KICKS IN TO HELP IN THE PROCESS. THAT SAID
DID BRIEFLY ENHANCE CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BEFORE THE BETTER LIFT CREEPS NORTH
OF THE REGION AND PRECIP WAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS RELATIVELY WEAK AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS QUIET STRETCH GOING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT SHOULD BRING A COOL NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE...AND LEFT OVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE START OF THE
EXTENDED AND WITH THE MAIN FEATURE IMPACTING THE FORECAST THIS GO
AROUND. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MODEL SYNCHRONICITY STARTS TO FLAG LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GEM AND GFS BUT EXHIBITING SIMILAR
STRENGTH. THE CORE OF THE ENERGY FROM THE ECMWF ALSO STAYS FURTHER
SOUTH AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME...HEIGHT FALLS AND A BAND OF ENERGY WILL
SWEEP INTO KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE TROUGH PASSES
TO THE NORTH. THE MODEL SPREAD THEN INCREASES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...THOUGH...LOW HEIGHTS AND FAST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN QUEBEC. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT FOLLOWS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...JUST WEAK ENERGY PACKETS WILL BE NOTED. HEIGHTS SHOULD
BE ON THE REBOUND FOR THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT WX THIS PERIOD...HAVE YIELDED TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 SOLUTION FOR FORECAST DETAILS AND FAVORED A BLEND
THEREAFTER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SEASONABLY WARM DAY AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER A DRY START TO
THE DAY...MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE CWA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS. BY LATE EVENING...DEWPOINTS
WILL BE UP INTO THE LOW 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED ALONG BY A STRONG MID LEVEL
JET STEAK WITH STORMS LIKELY FORMING WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE
AIR MASS CLASH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
QUITE LIMITED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT
NIGHT...BUT A SQUALL LINE IS A DECENT BET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ITS MOMENTUM FROM THE WEST MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAKE IT INTO THE CWA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY. EITHER
WAY...GUSTY SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE REMNANTS
AND FROPA LATE THAT NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
RAPIDLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON HELPING TO
CLEAR OUT LINGERING SHOWERS AND ALSO THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A CHILLY PERIOD OF QUIET WX WILL FOLLOW
INTO AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TRUDGES ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG WITH MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH PULLS EAST AND WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE
SOUTH.
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHTS. AGAIN TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING TO BETTER REPRESENT HOURLY MOVEMENT OF THE
HIGHEST VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER DRIER AIR AND
DOWNSLOPING HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OVERALL. DID KEEP VCSH TO -RA IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT FOR MOST SITES A PORTION OF THE
PERIOD... ONE REASON IS THE MESO MODELS WANT TO REDEVELOP SHOWERS
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE TRICKY PART HAS BEEN THE
CIGS WITH MOST SITES REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. SITES
HAVE STARTED TO TRANSITION TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE
FOLLOWED SUITE IN THE TAF. NOW BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDING AND
GUIDANCE WE WILL SEE AT LEAST IFR CIGS/VIS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...THEN THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
317 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 317 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015
Upper low is currently centered over Missouri, with a weak surface
low moving up through eastern KY. Deformation band of light to
moderate rain has set up nicely across the western CWA. and will
slowly pivot along a mostly N to S axis through the remainder of the
afternoon evening. This occurs as the upper low moves into Illinois.
Best rainfall coverage occurs along and west of I-65 where we will
have the highest rain chances depicted. Current HRRR and NAM runs
handle this well. East of I-65, precipitation has split up into a
separate area associated with isentropic lift and is mostly east of
the CWA. So, expecting our east to be relatively dry with only a
chance for measurable through the afternoon and early evening. Temps
should continue to hover about where they are.
A sharp PV anomaly rotates around the parent upper low into our
region overnight which will help to enhance the remaining low level
moisture enough to yield some isolated to scattered measurable pops
and/or patchy drizzle. Temps should mostly drop into the low and mid
40s.
Expect most of the CWA to be dry by the morning commute, although do
have to hold onto mention of some very slight chances of a
measurable shower or patchy drizzle across the bluegrass through mid
morning.
Othwerise, Tuesday will be dry with clearing skies from west to east
and temperatures reaching into the low 60s in most spots. Expect
upper 50s in the east where clouds hang on the longest.
Tuesday night brings mostly clear skies with pressure gradient
startint to establish a steady SSE flow. Expect to only see a very
subtle response in low level moisture and most valleys will
decouple. So, looking for upper 30s in the cool spots, with low 40s
in areas that are able to stay slightly mixed.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 317 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Wed Night...
Wednesday - Wednesday Night...
Wednesday will be dry as surface high pressure and progressive upper
ridge axis hold over our region. A steady south wind and mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies will allow temps to rise into the upper
60s and low 70s in some spots during the afternoon.
Upstream, a potent upper system (characterized by 150 kt upper level
jet, and 100-110 kt 500 mb jet) will eject out of the southern
Plains and into the mid Mississippi River Valley by Wednesday
evening. 500 mb trough will take on a negative tilt during this
transition. Associated surface low will deepen as it moves from
western KS to western IA. Strong upper divergence will overspread
the mid Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys through the afternoon and
into the evening hours, resulting in a strong low level jet (50-60
kts) response. At the surface, SSE winds will increase in response
to the pressure falls. Expecting to see 15 to 20 mph, occasionally
gusting around 25-30 mph Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.
Wind fields are undoubtedly impressive, however question continues
to remain with regard to instability. Surface based instability axis
continues to look meager to non-existent as only a very narrow
corridor of 55-60 dew points will build ahead of the cold front.
Despite the lack of instability, still think pockets of gusty to
potentially damaging winds will be possible within strongly forced
line via a couple of bowing segments, particularly across our
western CWA. Organized line of storms should overall weaken as they
progress east through the overnight.
Also, am a bit concerned about a secondary line of showers/storms
right along the frontal boundary, which seems to coincide with the
best instability axis. Low level theta surfaces become vertical
during this time which could allow 30 to 40 mph gradient wind gusts.
Gust potential could then be enhanced by any shower/storm. It is
entirely possible that this could be the worst part of the event,
with the pre-frontal trough acitivity too elevated for wind damage
and mainly just gusty stratiform rain. Either way, the main threat
Wednesday evening will be gusty winds, with a few pockets of
damaging winds likely. Rainfall totals really don`t look all that
impressive given the speed that the system moves through. A brief
spin-up tornado threat is non-zero, but at this point seems pretty
unlikely given the unimpressive dew points and the lack of at least
a little bit of surface based instability.
Timing of between 8 PM to 3 AM EST still looks pretty good for the
bulk of the event. Western areas can expect the earlier part of the
time frame, with the east getting in on the action later.
Thursday - Monday...
Cold front will be east of our CWA by dawn on Thursday. We`ll remain
under the influence of an occasionally reinforced upper trough
Saturday, however lack of moisture will keep things dry. Overall
temperatures will be cool during this time with high mostly in the
50s. A few spots may not reach 50 on Friday and Saturday afternoons.
Lows Thursday night will drop into the 30s, with Friday night lows
down around 30.
Upper ridge and surface high pressure try to hold over the area
through Monday, which will bring continued dry and moderating temps.
Highs Sunday should be back in the upper 50s, and likely touching 60
in many spots by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1230 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2015
Continue to have plenty of low-level moisture filtering into the
region from the south, as an upper level low over MO influences our
weather. Light rain showers and drizzle should be the norm this
afternoon, with ceilings lowering through the day. Expect the best
chance for daytime IFR down at KBWG, which in a special ob just
dropped down to that level. Cigs may improve briefly this afternoon,
but expect them to go back down there and at the other sites this
evening. Statistical guidance is a bit more optimistic for SDF then
I`d prefer given saturated time-height sections, so am keeping MVFR
cigs overnight. Skies should scatter out late in the period.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1235 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
PROGRESSED NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE A SURFACE
TROUGH HAS SETUP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS HAS COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WSR-88D SHOWS BEST AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH THIS HOUR...WHILE NORTH OF THIS A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING AND
POSSIBLY DRIER AIR IS STILL BEING OVERCOME. THIS GENERAL THOUGHT
IS SHOWING UP THE OBS FROM BOTH MESONETS AND ASOS/AWOS SITES
MEASURING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...WHILE ZERO TO TRACE
OCCURING IN THE NORTH. ATTEMPTED TO MAKE POPS REFLECT THIS TREND
OVERALL AND ALSO MATCH UP WITH OTHER OFFICES. MESO MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A REDEVELOP PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL HAVE TO
EVALUATE THAT FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. ALSO UPDATED
TEMP/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TREND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE HOURLY WEATHER OBS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. ALL IN ALL
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED AS FAR NORTH AS ROCKCASTLE...OWSLEY...PERRY AND PIKE
COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUT THE DAY AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE HRRR AND NAM12 PRODUCING MUCH LESS QPF THAN THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE MOISTURE
PROFILES SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS...THE MORE MOIST MODELS SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO SLIGHTLY DELAY PRECIPITATION ONSET ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR A DRIER THAN
EXPECTED SURFACE AIR MASS. THIS IN TURN WILL REVERBERATE THROUGH
OUT THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL...SO SLOWER WAS CONSIDERED BETTER
AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED. ALSO REDUCED MAXIMUM PRECIP CHANCES
FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY...GOING WITH MAX POPS OF AROUND 90 AS OPPOSED
TO THE 100 INHERITED FROM YESTERDAYS DAY SHIFT...SIMPLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATER THAN EXPECTED START TO THE RAIN TODAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR THAT IS IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...STILL
BELIEVE THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT SOME POINT TODAY. THE RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS FINALLY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA AROUND 20Z ON TUESDAY. THE IMPETUS FOR THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL WILL BE A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES ITS EAST NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT WILL
HELP DRAW ADDITIONAL LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
IN THE FORM OF A ROUGHLY 30KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
ALSO CREATE ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN.
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE
DAY TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATING THAT WE WILL NOT SEE A VERY BIG
RISE IN TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...IT WAS DECIDED TO ONCE AGAIN GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL THEN ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING A GREAT DEAL OVERNIGHT...SO WE WILL BE EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL WARM
UP IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL KEEP TOMORROWS HIGHS FROM REACHING
SEASONAL VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SWING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED STOUT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR TO OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES IN AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOLLOWING THE MOIST PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS WEEK...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE FOGGY. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS. THICKER CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...SO HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. MOST
LIKELY...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE TO OUR
WEST AND MARCH EAST TOWARDS US OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL
FOR THE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT. THE DEW POINTS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND
50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT...SO ANY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO COME
FROM ALOFT. THERE IS A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET HOWEVER...SO THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS A BIT LONGER INTO OUR AREA. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
IN THE HWO.
ONCE THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THINGS WILL
DRY OUT QUICKLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. BY
SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL BE REDUCED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S...AND
THEN WILL REBOUND TO THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ENSUES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER DRIER AIR AND
DOWNSLOPING HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OVERALL. DID KEEP VCSH TO -RA IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT FOR MOST SITES A PORTION OF THE
PERIOD... ONE REASON IS THE MESO MODELS WANT TO REDEVELOP SHOWERS
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE TRICKY PART HAS BEEN THE
CIGS WITH MOST SITES REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. SITES
HAVE STARTED TO TRANSITION TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE
FOLLOWED SUITE IN THE TAF. NOW BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDING AND
GUIDANCE WE WILL SEE AT LEAST IFR CIGS/VIS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...THEN THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
354 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW
PREVAILED THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH PRES FROM THE ERN LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH OVER THE WRN PLAINS. VIS LOOP SHOWED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MI/WI/MN WITH HIGH CLOUDS WELL OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS.
TONIGHT...A WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE SW WINDS TO DIMINISH
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS
SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE
UPER 30S FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY DOWNSLOPE SW FLOW.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED SRLY
FLOW WILL AGAIN PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...WITH FCST
925-900 MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY AND A FEW MORE HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT MAX REAINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.
SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50-55 RANGE OVER THE
SE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS ON THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...SO WILL COVER
THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE MODELS FIRST. THE UPPER TROUGH COMING ON
SHORE ON THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
IN EASTERN COLORADO BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING TO 987MB IN IOWA BY
00Z THURSDAY. THE LOW MAY DEEPEN A LITTLE MORE OVER THE FOLLOWING
12HRS...BUT LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND REACH THE SOO AROUND 987MB AT 18Z THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN
SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPIN FOR AROUND
24 HOURS BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
WHILE THE STORM WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LOWER
THAN WHAT THEY COULD HAVE BEEN WITH RESPECT TO WIND DUE TO THE UPPER
LOW CLOSING OFF AND BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR IN PLACE
INITIALLY WILL LEAD TO THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND TRANSITIONS THE
RAIN TO SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
FIRST FOR THE WIND...THERE WILL BE THREE DIFFERENT WAVES OF
STRONGER WINDS AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE FIRST ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH THE STRONG (25-30KT)
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.P. THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST (GUSTING TO SIMILAR VALUES) BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING (25-40KT GUSTS). THAT LAST SHIFT WILL
LIKELY MARK THE STRONGEST WINDS DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
COLD AIR SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SHORT
GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN GALE
EVENT OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH INTO FRIDAY. THAT COULD ALSO PRODUCE
THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.
FOR PRECIPITATION...THE INITIAL SURGE ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIED TO THE BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER MENTION IN PLACE
WITH THE SHOWALTER VALUES FALLING TO AROUND ZERO AND SOME POCKETS
OF MUCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK DRY
SLOT ALOFT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN CWA. BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK/MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION DURING THE REST OF THE
EVENT WILL BE TIED TO THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AIDED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C. THOSE FALLING
TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. TO LEAD TO A MARKED INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN U.P.. THE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO REACH THE EASTERN
U.P....BUT SHOULD SEE IT TAKE OFF TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE
AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ONCE IT TURNS OVER TO
SNOW...THINK A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL START TO MENTION IN THE HWO. WITH THE TIME
OF DAY AND INTENSITY...WOULD EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATION ON THE
ROADWAYS EVEN WITH THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN
HAVING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OUT WEST NEARING 1.5 INCHES.
ADD TO THAT AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OVER THE WEST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION AFTER A DRY FALL.
AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TRENDS TEMPERATURES BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
SRLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH
E GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI EVENING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND BACK TO THE SW AS A
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WRN LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
334 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A SW
FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND A TROUGH INTO THE WRN PLAINS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 30F SOUTH CENTRAL
FOR SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE WI BORDER UNDER LIGHT WINDS/DECREASED
MIXING. MEANWHILE HIGHER READINGS (IN THE 40S) HAVE BEEN COMMON
ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES DUE TO GREATER MIXING FROM SW WINDS
GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TODAY
TO REACH VALUES AT LEAST AS HIGH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SUNDAY AS
TEMPS TO MIXING LEVEL (AROUND 900 MB) CONTINUE TO CLIMB. THUS...
EXPECT TEMPS ON THE HIGHER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SLACKENING SW GRAD WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO LOWER INTO THE MID 20S FOR SOME OF THE
FAVORED CENTRAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS WHILE MIXING FROM DIMINISHED SW
WINDS WILL STILL KEEP READINGS HIGHER FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS ON THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...SO WILL COVER
THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE MODELS FIRST. THE UPPER TROUGH COMING ON
SHORE ON THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
IN EASTERN COLORADO BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING TO 987MB IN IOWA BY
00Z THURSDAY. THE LOW MAY DEEPEN A LITTLE MORE OVER THE FOLLOWING
12HRS...BUT LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND REACH THE SOO AROUND 987MB AT 18Z THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN
SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPIN FOR AROUND
24 HOURS BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
WHILE THE STORM WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LOWER
THAN WHAT THEY COULD HAVE BEEN WITH RESPECT TO WIND DUE TO THE UPPER
LOW CLOSING OFF AND BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR IN PLACE
INITIALLY WILL LEAD TO THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND TRANSITIONS THE
RAIN TO SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
FIRST FOR THE WIND...THERE WILL BE THREE DIFFERENT WAVES OF
STRONGER WINDS AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE FIRST ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH THE STRONG (25-30KT)
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.P. THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST (GUSTING TO SIMILAR VALUES) BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING (25-40KT GUSTS). THAT LAST SHIFT WILL
LIKELY MARK THE STRONGEST WINDS DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
COLD AIR SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SHORT
GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN GALE
EVENT OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH INTO FRIDAY. THAT COULD ALSO PRODUCE
THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.
FOR PRECIPITATION...THE INITIAL SURGE ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIED TO THE BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER MENTION IN PLACE
WITH THE SHOWALTER VALUES FALLING TO AROUND ZERO AND SOME POCKETS
OF MUCAPE OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK DRY
SLOT ALOFT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN CWA. BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK/MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION DURING THE REST OF THE
EVENT WILL BE TIED TO THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AIDED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C. THOSE FALLING
TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. TO LEAD TO A MARKED INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN U.P.. THE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO REACH THE EASTERN
U.P....BUT SHOULD SEE IT TAKE OFF TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE
AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ONCE IT TURNS OVER TO
SNOW...THINK A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL START TO MENTION IN THE HWO. WITH THE TIME
OF DAY AND INTENSITY...WOULD EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATION ON THE
ROADWAYS EVEN WITH THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN
HAVING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OUT WEST NEARING 1.5 INCHES.
ADD TO THAT AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OVER THE WEST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION AFTER A DRY FALL.
AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TRENDS TEMPERATURES BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
AS HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC...SW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY. SRLY WINDS AOB 20 KNOTS MON NIGHT
INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH E GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE
LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1251 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A SW
FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND A TROUGH INTO THE WRN PLAINS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 30F SOUTH CENTRAL
FOR SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE WI BORDER UNDER LIGHT WINDS/DECREASED
MIXING. MEANWHILE HIGHER READINGS (IN THE 40S) HAVE BEEN COMMON
ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES DUE TO GREATER MIXING FROM SW WINDS
GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TODAY
TO REACH VALUES AT LEAST AS HIGH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SUNDAY AS
TEMPS TO MIXING LEVEL (AROUND 900 MB) CONTINUE TO CLIMB. THUS...
EXPECT TEMPS ON THE HIGHER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SLACKENING SW GRAD WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO LOWER INTO THE MID 20S FOR SOME OF THE
FAVORED CENTRAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS WHILE MIXING FROM DIMINISHED SW
WINDS WILL STILL KEEP READINGS HIGHER FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER TUE INTO EARLY WED...WILL FOCUS ON
STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK.
HAVE SEEN A FEW CHANGES WITH MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE SYSTEM SINCE
LAST NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE CHANGES AS THE SYSTEM
IS JUST MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY SOME RELATIVELY MINOR TIMING/TRACK
DIFFERENCES...IN SHOWING A STACKED LOW (985MB MSLP) MOVING FROM JUST
S OF THE CWA AT 12Z THU TO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 18Z THU...THEN INTO
QUEBEC BY 06Z FRI. ONE OF THE BIGGER CHANGES SINCE LAST NIGHT IS
THAT MODELS NOW SHOW THE LOW FILLING AFTER IT MOVE E OF THE U.P. SO
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AT THIS TIME. A
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BRINGING COLDER AIR ALONG
WITH IT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER ON SAT WITH WARMER TEMPS BEHIND IT.
RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LATER IN THE DAY WED AND REALLY
PICKS UP LATE WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT WHEN MODELS SHOW AN INCH OR
MORE OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...BUT WITH WAA DO NOT EXPECT GALES OR WIND ADVISORIES
THEN. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER CHANCES WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. COLD AIR SURGING IN FROM THE W LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT
WILL BRING A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE AND LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS IT
LOOKED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A DECENT LAKE ENHANCEMENT
SETUP. NOT AS ALL CERTAIN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IT
IS...BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W-NW ON THU
AND WILL STAY UP INTO FRI NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. DID KNOCK WINDS DOWN SOME GIVEN TREND IN GUIDANCE OF THE
LOW FILLING AS IT MOVES E.
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SAT NIGHT...WILL JUST LET CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE POPULATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
AS HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC...SW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY. SRLY WINDS AOB 20 KNOTS MON NIGHT
INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH E GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE
LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1212 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY TO THE
REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL
SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS INVERSION HAS BROKEN AND
HOURLY TRENDS WERE SURGING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED UNDER FULL SUN AND
MODERATING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE WORKED THESE ISSUES THROUGH
USING THE HRRR MESOSCALE DATA...WHICH HAS ALSO BUMPED THE MAX
TEMPS UP TO THE MID-UPR 50S. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY AND BRING
THE AREA A MODERATING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAXES RANGING IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF IN THE MID WEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z TUE THEN INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUE TO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z WED. AS THIS OCCURS SFC LOW
PRES WILL LIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT THEN TO
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MUCH OF THE RAINFALL FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE FA WITH ACTIVITY HERE BEING FORCED
PRIMARILY BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. TREND HAS ALSO BEEN TO SLOW
THE ONSET OF RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER NE PA AND THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE OCCURRING EVERYWHERE. LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TOTAL PRECIP FOR THE REGION WILL
RANGE FROM A HALF INCH IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER.
WEDNESDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EAST OF I81. BY
AFTERNOON SFC HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY AND MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
THE FAR WESTERN CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WESTERN RIDGE - EASTERN TROF
PATTERN, AS A POWERFUL CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS LOWER ONTARIO AND
DRAGS COOL AIR INTO WESTERN NY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING VERY LITTLE AS IT SITS AND SPINS ALONG THE
ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. WE EXPECT SOME MINOR PRECIPITATION
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FALL AS RAIN, THOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MIX IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND IN THE
COOLER REGIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY, THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
HEIGHTS OVER NY/PA.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO
THE TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING, BETWEEN 9Z AND 14Z. CEILINGS WILL
FALL TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 3500 FEET, WITH MINOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS OF 4SM TO 6SM. ON THE BGM HILL, IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING.
LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TOWARD SUNRISE.
.OUTLOOK...
TUE AFT-TUE NGT... RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AREA-WIDE IN RAIN.
WED-WED NGT... MAINLY VFR.
THU... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...JAB/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1107 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY TO THE
REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL
SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS INVERSION HAS BROKEN AND
HOURLY TRENDS WERE SURGING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED UNDER FULL SUN AND
MODERATING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE WORKED THESE ISSUES THROUGH
USING THE HRRR MESOSCALE DATA...WHICH HAS ALSO BUMPED THE MAX
TEMPS UP TO THE MID-UPR 50S. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY AND BRING
THE AREA A MODERATING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAXES RANGING IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF IN THE MID WEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z TUE THEN INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUE TO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z WED. AS THIS OCCURS SFC LOW
PRES WILL LIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT THEN TO
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MUCH OF THE RAINFALL FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE FA WITH ACTIVITY HERE BEING FORCED
PRIMARILY BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. TREND HAS ALSO BEEN TO SLOW
THE ONSET OF RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER NE PA AND THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE OCCURRING EVERYWHERE. LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TOTAL PRECIP FOR THE REGION WILL
RANGE FROM A HALF INCH IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER.
WEDNESDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EAST OF I81. BY
AFTERNOON SFC HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY AND MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
THE FAR WESTERN CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WESTERN RIDGE - EASTERN TROF
PATTERN, AS A POWERFUL CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS LOWER ONTARIO AND
DRAGS COOL AIR INTO WESTERN NY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING VERY LITTLE AS IT SITS AND SPINS ALONG THE
ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. WE EXPECT SOME MINOR PRECIPITATION
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FALL AS RAIN, THOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MIX IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND IN THE
COOLER REGIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY, THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
HEIGHTS OVER NY/PA.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS COMING IN LATE EVE FROM THE S. LOW END VFR TOWARD
12Z TUESDAY WITH RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
ONLY QUESTION WAS FOG AT KELM. IFR CIGS STARTED AROUND 10Z AND
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 13 OR MAYBE 14Z. SATELLITE AND OBS NOT
SHOWING THAT IS WIDESPREAD AND ONLY IN THE LARGER RIVER VALLEYS.
WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING. FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT TO CALM
AND MAINLY EAST.
.OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUE NGT... RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AREAWIDE IN RAIN.
WED-WED NGT... MAINLY VFR.
THU... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...JAB/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
210 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATER TODAY... AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 925 AM MONDAY...
PRIMARY CHANGES THIS MORNING DEAL WITH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP
TRENDS. BAND OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NC IS BEING DRIVEN
BY A SHOT OF STRONG MOIST UPGLIDE ATTENDING A LOBE OF MID LEVEL
VORTICITY TRANSLATING TO THE NNE THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THIS LATTER
FEATURES PIVOTS TO OUR NORTH... MODELS DEPICT SOME DRYING ALOFT
ABOVE 0C WHICH SHOULD LESSEN PRECIP INTENSITY... ALTHOUGH THE MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG
WELL INTO TONIGHT... THUS THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN HIGH. SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED BATCHES OF CONVECTION OVER NRN
FL (NE OF THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE) AND OFF THE SC
COAST ARE LIKELY TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST INTO EARLY EVENING...
AS WE`RE LACKING A MECHANISM FOR THE COASTAL FRONT TO PUSH WELL
WESTWARD UNTIL PERHAPS LATER TONIGHT... GIVEN THAT THE WEDGE REGIME
IS QUITE ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL NC. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... SHOWING A VERY
SLOW RISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD... GREATER EAST OF THE I-95 THAN
ELSEWHERE AS THE STABLE POOL DEPTH SHOULD BE DECREASING ALONG ITS
EDGE. THIS TRANSLATES INTO "HIGHS" TODAY OF 46-66 AND "LOWS" TONIGHT
OF 45-64. WILL WAIT UNTIL A THOROUGH LOOK AT MORNING GUIDANCE BEFORE
ADJUSTING TONIGHT`S FORECAST ANY FURTHER... AS THE TRACK OF ANY
SURFACE LOW OVER ERN NC WILL IMPACT NOT ONLY TEMPS BUT HOW MUCH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED IN OUR FAR ERN COUNTIES
(CURRENTLY A FAIRLY LOW POTENTIAL). EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 0.75" TO 1.5"... HIGHEST IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 315 AM:
AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE
SOUTH. GOOD DIFFLUENCE IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND
THE GFS FORECASTS GOOD LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST HRRR WRF
GUIDANCE SHOWS RESULTS LIKE THE MOIST GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...
BASICALLY AREAS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL FOLLOW THE
METEOROLOGY AND THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST THE OLD CCF PLUS POPS FOR
TODAY.
ONE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH WILL TEMPERATURES RISE...IF AT
ALL. TO START THE NIGHT...SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AS LOW AS THE MID
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THOSE
DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S ALMOST ENTIRELY ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THE GFS AND THE LATEST ECMWF KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE PRECIPITATION. WHILE
THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO BEAT OF LATE...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS GUIDANCE AND SHOW HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD WITH LITTLE RISE DURING THE DAY
THERE...TO THE MID 50S IN THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 60S LATE IN
THE DAY TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY IN THE RADAR DEPICTION DURING THE DAY...BUT GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE OR WARMER TODAY WITH
MUCAPE IN THE LOWEST 6KM BARELY REGISTERING. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER TODAY IF THE SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES ON THE NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS VERIFY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THERE SHOULD BE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND
25MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 AS WINDS AT 850MB AND
925MB INCREASE BY 18Z TO CLOSE TO 40KT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN
THE DAY. -DJF
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT OVERNIGHT THERE IS SOME TOP-DOWN DRYING
AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST DECENT
DRYING AT AND ABOVE ABOUT 600MB BY 12Z TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS GOOD
UPPER DIFFLUENCE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
70KT 300MB JET NEARBY EARLY TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODEST
850MB CONVERGENCE. THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER MAY BE DRIVEN BY WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MUCAPE TONIGHT
IS FORECAST TO ABOUT 100 TO 200J/KG CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE
BETTER INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LESSER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FORECAST
SOME DRYING BETWEEN 500MB AND 700MB BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BEFORE THE BUFR SOUNDINGS TEND TO MOISTEN SOME BY 03Z
OR SO WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY TOWARD
KRWI AND KFAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA DURING TUESDAY...A GRADUALLY DRIER AIR MASS SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THERE IS
FORECAST AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH SPREADING OVER THE AREA WITH K
INDICES GOING SHARPLY NEGATIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FALL FROM WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY TO LESS THAN AN INCH
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
REMAINING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING
TAKES PLACE. WILL HAVE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 20Z TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER WITH
QPF...AND THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MMEFS QPF IS VERY GOOD...WITH
THE SREF...GEFS AND NAEFS ALL SHOWING VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BASINS FROM JUST OVER AN INCH TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES.
THREE-HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 2.5 INCHES OR GREATER...AND
TWELVE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 3.5 INCHES OR GREATER WITH THE
MMEFS PROBABILITIES OF ANY MAINSTEM RIVER GOING INTO FLOOD BEING
ABOUT TEN PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT...FOR THIS FORECAST DO NOT
PLAN ON ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...THOUGH COULD IMAGINE SOME
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUANCES SHOULD SOME MORE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF HIGHS TODAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THEN
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES...
COOLEST TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER AND WARMEST NEAR INTERSTATE 95.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR AND JUST ENOUGH...EVEN MODEST
STIRRING...TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT NEAR 1000FT THAT FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED...DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIMINISHING MOISTURE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.
POST-FROPA...LOOK FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS. THE AIRMASS
WITH THIS FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL...
WITH THE COOLEST PART OF THIS PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...HIGHS ON SAT IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS SUNDAY MORNING
APPROACHING FREEZING IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS.
MODEL DIFFERENCES REAPPEAR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS
KEEPING US DRY WHILE THE ECMWF QUICKLY ADVECTS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO
OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM MONDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS IN CENTRAL NC. A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION REMAINS IN
PLACE... CONSISTING OF COOL AND STABLE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST NOSING SSW THROUGH CENTRAL/WRN NC... WHILE A
COASTAL WARM FRONT PUSHES VERY SLOWLY WNW-WARD INTO ERN NC. THE WARM
AND MOIST FLOW OF AIR BRINGING ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE
COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
RAIN AND DRIZZLE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY EVENING... WHEN WE`LL START TO
SEE A SLOW TAPERING DOWN TO MOSTLY VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. VSBYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY MVFR OR VFR... HOWEVER WITHIN
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN VSBYS WILL DROP TO IFR OR LIFR FOR USUALLY
AN HOUR OR LESS. CIGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY MOSTLY IFR THROUGH
TONIGHT... THEN LIFT SLOWLY TO MVFR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (15Z-18Z TUE). WHILE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRICTLY MET... THE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NE
COMBINED WITH WINDS FROM THE SE AT 3-5 KFT AND OUT OF THE SW AT 8-10
KFT MAY INDUCE SOME MECHANICAL TURBULENCE... MAKING AIRCRAFT
HANDLING CHALLENGING... PARTICULARLY FOR SMALL CRAFT... THROUGH
TONIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF SOME THUNDER THIS EVENING NEAR FAY... BOTH
OTHERWISE NO LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ANY REMAINING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF TUE WITH VSBYS MOSTLY VFR... ALTHOUGH
CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE. BUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD TREND TO
VFR WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT TUE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL
TO OUR NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY THU... WHEN
A BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
AN INCOMING COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH
SAT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1150 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATER TODAY... AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 925 AM MONDAY...
PRIMARY CHANGES THIS MORNING DEAL WITH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP
TRENDS. BAND OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NC IS BEING DRIVEN
BY A SHOT OF STRONG MOIST UPGLIDE ATTENDING A LOBE OF MID LEVEL
VORTICITY TRANSLATING TO THE NNE THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THIS LATTER
FEATURES PIVOTS TO OUR NORTH... MODELS DEPICT SOME DRYING ALOFT
ABOVE 0C WHICH SHOULD LESSEN PRECIP INTENSITY... ALTHOUGH THE MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG
WELL INTO TONIGHT... THUS THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN HIGH. SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED BATCHES OF CONVECTION OVER NRN
FL (NE OF THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE) AND OFF THE SC
COAST ARE LIKELY TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST INTO EARLY EVENING...
AS WE`RE LACKING A MECHANISM FOR THE COASTAL FRONT TO PUSH WELL
WESTWARD UNTIL PERHAPS LATER TONIGHT... GIVEN THAT THE WEDGE REGIME
IS QUITE ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL NC. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... SHOWING A VERY
SLOW RISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD... GREATER EAST OF THE I-95 THAN
ELSEWHERE AS THE STABLE POOL DEPTH SHOULD BE DECREASING ALONG ITS
EDGE. THIS TRANSLATES INTO "HIGHS" TODAY OF 46-66 AND "LOWS" TONIGHT
OF 45-64. WILL WAIT UNTIL A THOROUGH LOOK AT MORNING GUIDANCE BEFORE
ADJUSTING TONIGHT`S FORECAST ANY FURTHER... AS THE TRACK OF ANY
SURFACE LOW OVER ERN NC WILL IMPACT NOT ONLY TEMPS BUT HOW MUCH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED IN OUR FAR ERN COUNTIES
(CURRENTLY A FAIRLY LOW POTENTIAL). EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 0.75" TO 1.5"... HIGHEST IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 315 AM:
AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE
SOUTH. GOOD DIFFLUENCE IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND
THE GFS FORECASTS GOOD LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST HRRR WRF
GUIDANCE SHOWS RESULTS LIKE THE MOIST GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...
BASICALLY AREAS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL FOLLOW THE
METEOROLOGY AND THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST THE OLD CCF PLUS POPS FOR
TODAY.
ONE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH WILL TEMPERATURES RISE...IF AT
ALL. TO START THE NIGHT...SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AS LOW AS THE MID
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THOSE
DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S ALMOST ENTIRELY ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THE GFS AND THE LATEST ECMWF KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE PRECIPITATION. WHILE
THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO BEAT OF LATE...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS GUIDANCE AND SHOW HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD WITH LITTLE RISE DURING THE DAY
THERE...TO THE MID 50S IN THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 60S LATE IN
THE DAY TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY IN THE RADAR DEPICTION DURING THE DAY...BUT GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE OR WARMER TODAY WITH
MUCAPE IN THE LOWEST 6KM BARELY REGISTERING. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER TODAY IF THE SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES ON THE NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS VERIFY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THERE SHOULD BE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND
25MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 AS WINDS AT 850MB AND
925MB INCREASE BY 18Z TO CLOSE TO 40KT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN
THE DAY. -DJF
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT OVERNIGHT THERE IS SOME TOP-DOWN DRYING
AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST DECENT
DRYING AT AND ABOVE ABOUT 600MB BY 12Z TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS GOOD
UPPER DIFFLUENCE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
70KT 300MB JET NEARBY EARLY TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODEST
850MB CONVERGENCE. THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER MAY BE DRIVEN BY WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MUCAPE TONIGHT
IS FORECAST TO ABOUT 100 TO 200J/KG CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE
BETTER INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LESSER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FORECAST
SOME DRYING BETWEEN 500MB AND 700MB BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BEFORE THE BUFR SOUNDINGS TEND TO MOISTEN SOME BY 03Z
OR SO WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY TOWARD
KRWI AND KFAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA DURING TUESDAY...A GRADUALLY DRIER AIR MASS SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THERE IS
FORECAST AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH SPREADING OVER THE AREA WITH K
INDICES GOING SHARPLY NEGATIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FALL FROM WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY TO LESS THAN AN INCH
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
REMAINING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING
TAKES PLACE. WILL HAVE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 20Z TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER WITH
QPF...AND THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MMEFS QPF IS VERY GOOD...WITH
THE SREF...GEFS AND NAEFS ALL SHOWING VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BASINS FROM JUST OVER AN INCH TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES.
THREE-HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 2.5 INCHES OR GREATER...AND
TWELVE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 3.5 INCHES OR GREATER WITH THE
MMEFS PROBABILITIES OF ANY MAINSTEM RIVER GOING INTO FLOOD BEING
ABOUT TEN PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT...FOR THIS FORECAST DO NOT
PLAN ON ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...THOUGH COULD IMAGINE SOME
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUANCES SHOULD SOME MORE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF HIGHS TODAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THEN
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES...
COOLEST TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER AND WARMEST NEAR INTERSTATE 95.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR AND JUST ENOUGH...EVEN MODEST
STIRRING...TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT NEAR 1000FT THAT FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED...DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND S/W RIDGING
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE THE AREA IN A WEST TO EAST
FASHION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...YIELDING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER... WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 1360S...THINK WE
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO
THE MAV VALUES. THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY
MORNING THANKS TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL GO WITH LOW TEMPS OF AROUND
50.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A MID LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE BEST COMBO OF MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS...WITH
ONLY LOW END CHANCE NW TO NOTHING SE. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
IN THIS DIRECTION...THEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE DRY. HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER
TO POSSIBLE MID 70S SE. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN L/W
TROUGH AXIS THIS WEEKEND WELL TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD/DRIER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...
WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME 70S FAR SOUTHEAST...WITH AN EXPECTED
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGH TEMPS BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE
30S...MAYBE A FEW 40S ON SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM MONDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS IN CENTRAL NC. A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION REMAINS IN
PLACE... CONSISTING OF COOL AND STABLE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST NOSING SSW THROUGH CENTRAL/WRN NC... WHILE A
COASTAL WARM FRONT PUSHES VERY SLOWLY WNW-WARD INTO ERN NC. THE WARM
AND MOIST FLOW OF AIR BRINGING ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE
COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
RAIN AND DRIZZLE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY EVENING... WHEN WE`LL START TO
SEE A SLOW TAPERING DOWN TO MOSTLY VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. VSBYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY MVFR OR VFR... HOWEVER WITHIN
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN VSBYS WILL DROP TO IFR OR LIFR FOR USUALLY
AN HOUR OR LESS. CIGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY MOSTLY IFR THROUGH
TONIGHT... THEN LIFT SLOWLY TO MVFR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (15Z-18Z TUE). WHILE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRICTLY MET... THE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NE
COMBINED WITH WINDS FROM THE SE AT 3-5 KFT AND OUT OF THE SW AT 8-10
KFT MAY INDUCE SOME MECHANICAL TURBULENCE... MAKING AIRCRAFT
HANDLING CHALLENGING... PARTICULARLY FOR SMALL CRAFT... THROUGH
TONIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF SOME THUNDER THIS EVENING NEAR FAY... BOTH
OTHERWISE NO LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ANY REMAINING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF TUE WITH VSBYS MOSTLY VFR... ALTHOUGH
CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE. BUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD TREND TO
VFR WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT TUE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL
TO OUR NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY THU... WHEN
A BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
AN INCOMING COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH
SAT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
320 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
TEMPS HAVE RISEN NICELY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN
STORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE N RRV AND
DEVILS LAKE BASIN BY MORNING. WHILE MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY
AFFECT THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BY MORNING NEAR THE FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN...TO NEAR 60 AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY/WC MN.
EXACTLY HOW TEMPS BEHAVE IN BETWEEN WILL DEPEND ON THE COLD
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT DO EXPECT A PRETTY SHARP TEMP GRADIENT. THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING ACROSS NE ND/NW MN LATER
TUE/TUE NIGHT...AND MODELS SHOW SOME LOW QPF...BUT EXPECT ANY OF
THIS PRECIP TO BE QUITE LIGHT...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SATURATION CONFINED TO THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. PLENTY OF LOW
STRATUS SHOULD HOLD TIGHT OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT NOW AMONG MODELS THAT A SFC LOW WILL FORM
IN CO AND LIFT UP INTO NORTHEAST WI BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIP REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. DID KEEP
SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE BIGGER CHANGE WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPS BACK
DOWN TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY. WHILE NOT A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
POSSIBLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 30S. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY RRV WESTWARD AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
FAR SOUTH AND WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING AS SYSTEMS DROPS BY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. IT WILL BE COOL ON FRIDAY WITH A CLEARING TREND FROM
WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL AGAIN AND PACIFIC AIRMASS FLOODS THE AREA AND
WE WARM BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK IS LOOKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TOO...WITH SOME RISK OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD. AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO TUESDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS. FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST BUT LIKELY NOT IMPACT DVL AREA TIL JUST
PAST 18Z WITH A NORTH WIND AND POSSIBLY LOWER CIGS. COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN DVL BASIN OVERNIGHT PER HRRR BUT THAT AREA TO SEE A
GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS TOO SO THAT MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1250 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015
DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY (WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE
HIGHS...WHICH ARE IN THE LOW 40S) ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND A
FEW HIGH CIRRUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS TEMPS AND LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES BY
MIDWEEK. MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A DAY VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
60 SOUTH AND IN THE MID 50S NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND WITH
NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL WARMER TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS A SFC BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS AND STRETCHES SW TO NE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW.
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY AND VERY WARM DAY IN THE SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE COOLER AIR THAT STARTS TO DRAG INTO THE N AN NW
FA...AND COOLER READINGS ARE EXPECTED HERE. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST
A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM THE FAR NW TO THE
SOUTH...WITH HIGHS NEAR 40 FAR NW TO AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015
FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE WILL BE DEEPER SATURATION MOVING FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW DEPENDING ON LOCATION TO THE FRONT. THE LATEST TRENDS
WITH THIS CONTINUE TO BE DRIER THOUGH AND PUSH THE MAIN STORM AND
ASSOCIATED QPF SOUTH OF OUR FA...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM AT ALL. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY WED AND BECOME GUSTY
WITH ABOUT 30KT TO MIX AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR ALL AREAS.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE FIRST STRONG LOW LIFTS NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES ON THU THERE IS STILL A TRAILING SHORT WAVE BEHIND
IT. THIS LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW
WITH IT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. WINDS ON THU
ALSO LOOK PRETTY GUSTY ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS
THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST LATER FRIDAY THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM LOOKS DRY. 500MB FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL OR SLIGHT SOUTHWEST
WITH TEMPS BOOSTING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD. AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO TUESDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS. FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST BUT LIKELY NOT IMPACT DVL AREA TIL JUST
PAST 18Z WITH A NORTH WIND AND POSSIBLY LOWER CIGS. COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN DVL BASIN OVERNIGHT PER HRRR BUT THAT AREA TO SEE A
GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS TOO SO THAT MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE