Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/08/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
1256 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND CONTINUED WARMER WEATHER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK
TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE RIDGES...PASSES...CANYONS AND
FOOTHILLS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH IN THOSE AREAS.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...COOLER AGAIN WITH A RETURN OF
NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO THE COAST...VALLEYS AND
COASTAL SLOPES AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION. WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW WITH CONTINUED WARMING FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NOT
EVEN A HINT OF ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF IT FAR OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE 7.8
MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...WHEREAS THEY WERE 2.6 MB AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FAVORED RIDGES...PASSES...CANYONS
AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS REPORTING NORTHEAST TO EAST GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THESE STRONGER GUSTS AS
OPPOSED TO THE LOCAL WRF. CONSIDERING THE STRONGER WINDS THAN
ANTICIPATED...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL FOOTHILL
AND PASS/CANYON LOCATIONS. THESE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AND STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT FURTHER LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND WEAK RIDGE ALOFT IS RESULTING IN WARMING
TODAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE WARMING TRENDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THAT DAY.
THE STILL RELATIVELY COLD AIR MASS...WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES RESULTED IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE HIGH DESERTS
THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING BELOW FREEZING
IN SEVERAL SPOTS. HOWEVER...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
INCREASE BY A FEW DEG C BY TONIGHT...SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN THE HIGH DESERTS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A COOLING TREND AND THE
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER. DEEP MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL...VALLEY AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...THE MORNING STRATUS IS
UNLIKELY TO CLEAR MUCH...IF AT ALL...AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION.
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN...AND THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS THAN THE WINDS WE ARE CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW
CLOUDS. HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
WARMING TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
061700Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT MORNING. LOCAL NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 20-30
KT THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT MORNING...THOUGH THESE WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH ANY OF THE
TAF SITES...INCLUDING KONT.
&&
.MARINE...
900 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CA WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15-25 KT AND COMBINED SEAS OF 6-10 FEET MON-TUE...HIGHEST IN THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE FAVORED RIDGES...PASSES...CANYONS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILL LOCATIONS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
LIKELY. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING DAY-TIME HUMIDITY DOWN INTO THE
TEENS FOR THE INLAND AREAS. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AT NIGHT WILL BE
POOR TO MODERATE. HOWEVER...RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS UNLIKELY TO
BE MET AND THE RECENT RAINS SHOULD HAVE INCREASED FUEL MOISTURES
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY AND TURN ONSHORE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITIES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER SANTA ANA WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SAN DIEGO FOR OCTOBER WAS 7.7 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. THAT WAS ONLY THE FOURTH MONTH IN THE HISTORY OF
SAN DIEGO WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR A MONTH WAS 7 OR MORE
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
DEPARTURE
FROM AVERAGE MONTH YEAR
+8.2 SEPTEMBER 1984
+7.7 OCTOBER 2015
+7.2 JULY 1984
+7.2 MARCH 2015
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL
CLIMATE...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
650 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. SO ONE LAST MILD DAY BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT
FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A
CHANGE OF AIR MASS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY PER
UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS ARE AVERAGING
AROUND 1.50 INCHES WHICH IS 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
NCEP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE SO IT WOULD APPEAR WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NOW HUMIDITY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BUT PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITIES...IT WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY THEN BECOMING
SCATTERED INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50KTS COULD TRANSPORT SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL AT
BEST AS THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK THE
OUTLOOK FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 70F
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH GENERALLY 60S ELSEWHERE.
FROPA OCCURS BY 00Z AS WINDS WILL VEER RATHER QUICKLY TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION. MAGNITUDES TOO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS COLD
ADVECTION INCREASES MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TO TAP INTO 20-30KTS OF
WIND. MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH
SOME LAKE INDUCED STRATUS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45-55F DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MARKED BY A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS WITH LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. PER THE NCEP MODELS...IT WOULD
APPEAR ONE MORE TROUGH /SURFACE AND ALOFT/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH
MORE SHOWERS GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY AS
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. H850
TEMPS SETTLE BACK INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A COOL NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS DOWN INTO THE 30S.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A RETURN TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AFTER A SUNNY DAY...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...MOCLR SKIES WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY INTO THE
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY TO START THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CONUS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT....THEN WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING
OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND THE
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE(S) THAT
INTERACT WITH IT WHICH IMPACTS THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE SURFACE SYSTEM. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL...BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES...IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE
AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRATUS WILL LIFT DURING THE MORNING AS THE FLOW PICKS UP AND
WE MIX. AN IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND BECOMES
GUSTY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH
VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE EVENING WITH
SKIES BECOMING VARIABLE CLOUDY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE INCREASE THREAT OF SHOWERS TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. IT HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN
SIGNIFICANT /0.25 INCH OR MORE/ RAINFALL.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
HERE IS A LOOK AT SOME RECORDS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER
6TH...
ALBANY NY: 72 DEGREES 1948
DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874
GLENS FALL NY: 70 DEGREES 2005
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 73 DEGREES 1978
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
413 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. SO ONE LAST MILD DAY BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT
FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A
CHANGE OF AIR MASS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY PER
UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS ARE AVERAGING
AROUND 1.50 INCHES WHICH IS 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
NCEP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE SO IT WOULD APPEAR WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NOW HUMIDITY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BUT PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITIES...IT WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY THEN BECOMING
SCATTERED INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50KTS COULD TRANSPORT SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL AT
BEST AS THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK THE
OUTLOOK FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 70F
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH GENERALLY 60S ELSEWHERE.
FROPA OCCURS BY 00Z AS WINDS WILL VEER RATHER QUICKLY TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION. MAGNITUDES TOO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS COLD
ADVECTION INCREASES MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TO TAP INTO 20-30KTS OF
WIND. MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH
SOME LAKE INDUCED STRATUS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45-55F DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MARKED BY A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS WITH LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. PER THE NCEP MODELS...IT WOULD
APPEAR ONE MORE TROUGH /SURFACE AND ALOFT/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH
MORE SHOWERS GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY AS
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. H850
TEMPS SETTLE BACK INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A COOL NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS DOWN INTO THE 30S.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A RETURN TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AFTER A SUNNY DAY...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...MOCLR SKIES WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY INTO THE
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY TO START THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CONUS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT....THEN WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING
OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND THE
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE(S) THAT
INTERACT WITH IT WHICH IMPACTS THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE SURFACE SYSTEM. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL...BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES...IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE
AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH AND RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT DURING THE MORNING WITH THE FOG DISSIPATING AS THE FLOW
PICKS UP AND WE MIX. AN IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND
BECOMES GUSTY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT WITH VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AND BECOME GUSTY
TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING
VARIABLE CLOUDY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE INCREASE THREAT OF SHOWERS TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. IT HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN
SIGNIFICANT /0.25 INCH OR MORE/ RAINFALL.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
HERE IS A LOOK AT SOME RECORDS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER
6TH...
ALBANY NY: 72 DEGREES 1948
DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874
GLENS FALL NY: 70 DEGREES 2005
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 73 DEGREES 1978
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
402 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. SO ONE LAST MILD DAY BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT
FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A
CHANGE OF AIR MASS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY PER
UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS ARE AVERAGING
AROUND 1.50 INCHES WHICH IS 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
NCEP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE SO IT WOULD APPEAR WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NOW HUMIDITY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BUT PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITIES...IT WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY THEN BECOMING
SCATTERED INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50KTS COULD TRANSPORT SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL AT
BEST AS THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK THE
OUTLOOK FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 70F
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH GENERALLY 60S ELSEWHERE.
FROPA OCCURS BY 00Z AS WINDS WILL VEER RATHER QUICKLY TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION. MAGNITUDES TOO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS COLD
ADVECTION INCREASES MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TO TAP INTO 20-30KTS OF
WIND. MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH
SOME LAKE INDUCED STRATUS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45-55F DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MARKED BY A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS WITH LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. PER THE NCEP MODELS...IT WOULD
APPEAR ONE MORE TROUGH /SURFACE AND ALOFT/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH
MORE SHOWERS GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY AS
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. H850
TEMPS SETTLE BACK INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A COOL NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS DOWN INTO THE 30S.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A RETURN TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AFTER A SUNNY DAY...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...MOCLR SKIES WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY INTO THE
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY TO START THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CONUS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT....THEN WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING
OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND THE
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE(S) THAT
INTERACT WITH IT WHICH IMPACTS THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE SURFACE SYSTEM. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL...BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES...IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE
AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH AND HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
EXCEPTING WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT MAINLY UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT IN THE MORNING WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING AS THE FLOW PICKS UP AND WE MIX. AN IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS EXPECT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AND BECOMES GUSTY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE
EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING VARIABLE CLOUDY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE INCREASE THREAT OF SHOWERS TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. IT HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN
SIGNIFICANT /0.25 INCH OR MORE/ RAINFALL.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
311 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...STRATUS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AS SEEN
IN THE METARS WITH LOWERING CIGS. PER THE 00Z SOUNDING...SEEMS
THIS STATUS WILL THICKEN BELOW THE INVERSION BELOW H700 AND MAY
EVEN SEE SOME DRIZZLE EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AS INCREASING MIXING AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE THIS INVERSION. DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE
HIGHER SO DID ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD.
PREV DISC...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS IS HEADING EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. THE 00Z KALY
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH AN
850 HPA TEMP NEAR 13 DEGREES C AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS AROUND 582 DM.
ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMO PAGE...THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE
TO RECORD LEVELS FOR THE DATE.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE REGION
FROM THE W-SW...AND SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...ESP SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION.
THE MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...SO NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LATEST 01Z 3KM HRRR AGREES IN
KEEPING ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE.
WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT...MINS WILL BE
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A SOUTH WIND OF 5
TO 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. BEFORE THAT...TEMPS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S RANGE WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMP AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 72 DEGREES...AND THE
CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THE AIRPORT IS 73 DEGREES...SO TEMPS
WILL BE IN RECORD TERRITORY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING
OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE MAXIMUM POPS FORECAST ON
FRIDAY RANGE FROM ONLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...UP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS.
ALTHOUGH JET DYNAMICS...SHEAR PROFILES AND PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK OR MARGINAL AT BEST. A LINE
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ALONG OR NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. IN
FACT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ONLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
FRI NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY AT NIGHT
WITH POPS DECREASING TO DRY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF...THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE AT NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THESE AREAS...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS DRY BUT
COOLER WEATHER. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH UPPER 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S...WITH LOW OR MID 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLE COOL AND DRY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OFF THE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT GUIDANCE HAS A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OCCURRING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE
OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN AND POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IMPACT THE TRACK...STRENGTHEN AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM.
KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH AND HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
EXCEPTING WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT MAINLY UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT IN THE MORNING WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING AS THE FLOW PICKS UP AND WE MIX. AN IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS EXPECT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AND BECOMES GUSTY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE
EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING VARIABLE CLOUDY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS RH
VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. IT
HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN SIGNIFICANT
(0.25 INCH OR MORE) RAINFALL.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1259 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...STRATUS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AS SEEN
IN THE METARS WITH LOWERING CIGS. PER THE 00Z SOUNDING...SEEMS
THIS STATUS WILL THICKEN BELOW THE INVERSION BELOW H700 AND MAY
EVEN SEE SOME DRIZZLE EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AS INCREASING MIXING AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE THIS INVERSION. DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE
HIGHER SO DID ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD.
PREV DISC...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS IS HEADING EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. THE 00Z KALY
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH AN
850 HPA TEMP NEAR 13 DEGREES C AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS AROUND 582 DM.
ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMO PAGE...THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE
TO RECORD LEVELS FOR THE DATE.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE REGION
FROM THE W-SW...AND SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...ESP SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION.
THE MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...SO NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LATEST 01Z 3KM HRRR AGREES IN
KEEPING ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE.
WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT...MINS WILL BE
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A SOUTH WIND OF 5
TO 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. BEFORE THAT...TEMPS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S RANGE WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMP AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 72 DEGREES...AND THE
CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THE AIRPORT IS 73 DEGREES...SO TEMPS
WILL BE IN RECORD TERRITORY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING
OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE MAXIMUM POPS FORECAST ON
FRIDAY RANGE FROM ONLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...UP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS.
ALTHOUGH JET DYNAMICS...SHEAR PROFILES AND PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK OR MARGINAL AT BEST. A LINE
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ALONG OR NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. IN
FACT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ONLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
FRI NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY AT NIGHT
WITH POPS DECREASING TO DRY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF...THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE AT NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THESE AREAS...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS DRY BUT
COOLER WEATHER. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH UPPER 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S...WITH LOW OR MID 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLE COOL AND DRY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OFF THE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT GUIDANCE HAS A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OCCURRING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE
OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN AND POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IMPACT THE TRACK...STRENGTHEN AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM.
KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH AND HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION. EXCEPT WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS. A LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT MAINLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH
THE FOG DISSIPATING AS THE FLOW PICKS UP AND WE MIX. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND BECOMES GUSTY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH VCSH
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE
EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING VARIABLE CLOUDY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS RH
VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. IT
HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN SIGNIFICANT
(0.25 INCH OR MORE) RAINFALL.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1239 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...STRATUS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AS SEEN
IN THE METARS WITH LOWERING CIGS. PER THE 00Z SOUNDING...SEEMS
THIS STATUS WILL THICKEN BELOW THE INVERSION BELOW H700 AND MAY
EVEN SEE SOME DRIZZLE EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AS INCREASING MIXING AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE THIS INVERSION. DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE
HIGHER SO DID ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD.
PREV DISC...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS IS HEADING EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. THE 00Z KALY
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH AN
850 HPA TEMP NEAR 13 DEGREES C AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS AROUND 582 DM.
ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMO PAGE...THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE
TO RECORD LEVELS FOR THE DATE.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE REGION
FROM THE W-SW...AND SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...ESP SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION.
THE MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...SO NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LATEST 01Z 3KM HRRR AGREES IN
KEEPING ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE.
WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT...MINS WILL BE
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A SOUTH WIND OF 5
TO 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. BEFORE THAT...TEMPS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S RANGE WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMP AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 72 DEGREES...AND THE
CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THE AIRPORT IS 73 DEGREES...SO TEMPS
WILL BE IN RECORD TERRITORY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING
OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE MAXIMUM POPS FORECAST ON
FRIDAY RANGE FROM ONLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...UP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS.
ALTHOUGH JET DYNAMICS...SHEAR PROFILES AND PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK OR MARGINAL AT BEST. A LINE
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ALONG OR NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. IN
FACT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ONLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
FRI NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY AT NIGHT
WITH POPS DECREASING TO DRY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF...THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE AT NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THESE AREAS...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS DRY BUT
COOLER WEATHER. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH UPPER 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S...WITH LOW OR MID 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLE COOL AND DRY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OFF THE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT GUIDANCE HAS A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OCCURRING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE
OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN AND POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IMPACT THE TRACK...STRENGTHEN AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM.
KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE ONSET OF POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS THAT NO PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT DUE TO FORCING REMAINING WELL
WEST OF THE AREA...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKS
TO A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG/LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME DEGREE OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 02Z-06Z...WITH KPOU/KPSF EXPECTED
TO BE THE FIRST SITES TO SEE FOG/STRATUS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM FOR LATE
TONIGHT.
FOG/STRATUS MAY START TO BREAK UP IN THE MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING FOR KPOU/KPSF.
MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY THE AFTN HOURS WITH BKN CIGS AT 4-9
KFT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN HOURS...ALTHOUGH
WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO SCT NATURE OF THE
PRECIP. S-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE EVNG.
SAT-MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS RH
VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. IT
HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN SIGNIFICANT
(0.25 INCH OR MORE) RAINFALL.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
406 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ANOTHER SMALL MIXED LAYER ABOUT
200 FT OFF THE GROUND HOLDING FIRM UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER
STRATUS BUILD DOWN WILL BE ABLE TO PENETRATE THE MIXED LAYER TO
PRODUCE DENSE FOG. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE MIXED LAYER MAY
FINALLY GIVE WAY IN THE 5AM-8AM TIME FRAME...SO A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FOG EVENT COULD STILL UNFOLD LATER THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME UNEXPECTED CLEARING OF THE STRATUS HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF CHARLESTON AND EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTIES. THIS MAY ENHANCE
THE RADIATIONAL FOG SITUATION IN THIS AREA IF THE STRATUS DOES NOT
FILL BACK IN. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR
POSSIBLE STATEMENTS AND/OR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
TODAY...IT WILL BE AN UNUSUALLY WARM DAY FOR EARLY NOVEMBER AS
THE AREA REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WHICH WILL HELP PROPEL TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER-
MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THESE VALUES
WILL BE VERY NEAR THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR ALL THREE
CLIMATE SITES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND THROUGH ABOUT
MID- MORNING DUE TO LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM STRATUS AND
FOG...BUT THERMAL RISES SHOULD ACCELERATE BY LATE MORNING AS THE
FOG AND STRATUS LIFT AND THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. SOME GUIDANCE PACKAGES SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS
COULD POP ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME
MID- LEVEL POOLING OF HIGHER THETA AIR COULD OCCUR...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO VERIFYING IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS WILL SUPPORT A RATHER
WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH LOWS
ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW
MID 60S WELL INLAND AND A FEW LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES. THESE
VALUES WILL CHALLENGE THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM RECORDS AT ALL THREE
CLIMATE SITES. MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH SOME
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN AREAS BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. INCREASING WINDS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGESTS THE RISK FOR FOG COULD BE LOWER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS WITH STRATUS LIKELY BECOMING THE DOMINATE MODE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE WINDS
ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER. WILL MAINTAIN
PATCHY AND AREAS OF FOG QUALIFIERS AS DELINEATED IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST CYCLES.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE
DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHEN THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST, BUT NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES COULD GET CLOSE
TO OR EVEN REACH RECORD LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG CLEAR EACH MORNING. SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR RECORD HIGHS.
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS. IN
GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S ON MONDAY.
LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON LAKE MOULTRIE SUNDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY AS WINDS COULD EXCEED 20 KT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND MOVES TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND THAT
IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. AS THIS LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LEADING
TO DRYING CONDITIONS...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS...LIKELY
DROPPING TO AT LEAST ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AND POSSIBLY AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A SMALL MIXED LAYER IN PLACE
FROM THE GROUND TO ABOUT 200 FT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER
THIS WILL KEEP THE STRATUS FROM EVOLVING INTO DENSE FOG. HAVE
CAPPED VSBYS AT 2SM AT KCHS AND 1SM AT KSAV FOR NOW. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE...IMPROVING TO VFR BY
15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV SATURDAY MORNING DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG. RESTRICTIONS RESULTING FROM SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR. A LIGHT WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KT. SOME LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TAKES HOLD
ALONG THE BEACHES AND MOVES INLAND...BUT SHOULD ONLY SEE 5-10 KT
AT BEST. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 2-3 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS.
TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 10 KT ACROSS
THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL
BUILD BY ABOUT 1/2 TO 1 FT...RANGING FROM 1-2 FT NEARSHORE
WATERS...EXCEPT 2-3 FT OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WITH A
SOLID 3 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUE RISK FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.
LAND/SEA DIFFERENTIALS ARE SUCH THAT SEA FOG WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WILL
ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS TO PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...EXTENDING DOWN TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LEADING TO RISING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. EXPECT A STRONG NORTHEAST BREEZE WITH
GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BEYOND 10 NM OUT. GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION... ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZONE 374. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED
WITH GOOD FETCH OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT
NEAR 20 NM OUT AND IN THE 10-12 FT RANGE BEYOND 40 NM. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO EASE. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO TREND DOWNWARD DUE
TO THE LONG FETCH OFFSHORE. AT MINIMUM...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH GALE
HEADLINES POSSIBLE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NORTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TIDES MAY RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR SALT WATER
FLOODING NEAR THE COAST. BEACH EROSION ALSO APPEARS LIKELY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 6...
KCHS...87 SET IN 2003.
KCXM...81 SET IN 2003.
KSAV...85 SET IN 2003.
RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 7...
KCHS...84 SET IN 1986.
KCXM...82 SET IN 1922.
KSAV...86 SET IN 1986.
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR NOVEMBER 7...
KCHS...68 SET IN 2003.
KCXM...70 SET IN 2003.
KSAV...68 SET IN 2003.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/MS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
116 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE A MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING MORE RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
H5 PATTERN SHOW LARGE TROUGH OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS FALLEN
HEIGHTS AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN CHANGES FOR THE
SHORT/LONG TERM FORECAST...SEE BELOW FOR THOSE DISCUSSIONS.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA THAT HAS
HELPED TO WEAKEN THE PERSISTENT WEDGE PATTERN THAT HAS ENVELOPED
THE CWA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AND FOG. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THE CLOUD DECK IS REDEVELOPING AND LOWERING ONCE AGAIN WITH NO
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
STILL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WE CAN EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG SOME LOCALLY DENSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT SHOWS NO POPS FROM THE GFS BUT NAM DOES KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR SHOWS POCKETS OF TRACE TO .01
BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO WILL FAVOR THE GFS AND KEEPS POPS OUT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSE TO MET/MAV GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AN LEVEL RIDGE WILL LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WELL INTO
THE ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY FRIDAY
EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
THEN APPROACHING THE UPSTATE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS
WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT AT
THIS TIME HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF POPS. COULD SEE AN ISOLATE
SHOWER OR TWO...BUT MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS REACHING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY
WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...LEANING
TOWARD A WETTER SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS
THE WET WEATHER LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE MIDDLE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...IS LOOKS LIKE AN IN-SITU
WEDGE DEVELOPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE INDICATED HIGHER POPS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT....AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR TO DOMINATE THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH VSBYS AND
CIGS CONTINUING TO LOWER. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND
SUNRISE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVED DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS AS WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
VFR...HOWEVER EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
15Z...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 6 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
WEDGE CONDITIONS AND RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALSO POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW AREA RIVERS AND LAKES REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. FLOOD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA
EASTMAN WHERE MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES AND FOR LAKE WATEREE. A
FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CONGAREE RIVER AT COLUMBIA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1213 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO
START OFF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE COULD THEN SHIFT OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ANOTHER SMALL MIXED LAYER ABOUT 200 FT OFF THE
GROUND HOLDING FIRM UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SIMILAR TO THE PAST
FEW MORNINGS...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER STRATUS BUILD DOWN
WILL BE ABLE TO PENETRATE THE MIXED LAYER TO PRODUCE DENSE FOG.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE MIXED LAYER MAY FINALLY GIVE WAY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO A MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG EVENT COULD UNFOLD
LATER THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG AND MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE STATEMENTS AND/OR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A PRETTY POTENT COLD
FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM
THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR. COULD
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS VERY
LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MINIMAL INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES COULD GET CLOSE TO OR
EVEN REACH RECORD LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICK THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG CLEAR EACH MORNING. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR RECORD HIGHS.
LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON LAKE MOULTRIE SUNDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY AS WINDS COULD EXCEED 20 KT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS. IN
GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S ON MONDAY. SOME
QUESTIONS COME ABOUT AS WE HEAD INTO LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS INSIST
THAT AT LEAST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT OVER THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...PERHAPS KEEPING IT JUST SOUTH AND OFFSHORE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
SHOULD BE ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. BY
WEDNESDAY...DRYER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN INTO THE LOWER 70S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS...LIKELY
DROPPING TO AT LEAST ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AND POSSIBLY AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A SMALL MIXED LAYER IN PLACE
FROM THE GROUND TO ABOUT 200 FT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER
THIS WILL KEEP THE STRATUS FROM EVOLVING INTO DENSE FOG. HAVE
CAPPED VSBYS AT 2SM AT KCHS AND 1SM AT KSAV FOR NOW. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE...IMPROVING TO VFR BY
15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND THEN WITH SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
STRONG/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER NEAR SHORE
WATERS INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE. COVERAGE/IMPACTS OF DENSE FOG REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THUS A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT WARRANTED WITHIN THE LATE THURSDAY
EVENING UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TRANSLATE TO WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT SC WATERS AND LESS THAN 15 KT
GA WATERS...MAINLY FROM THE E/NE VEERING TOWARD THE E/SE LATE.
SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL PREVAIL...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND AND
DOMINATED BY A 7-8 SECOND PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL HELP ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SEA FOG ALONG THE COOLER
COAST UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO ABOUT 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM
AND 10 FT BEYOND 40 NM. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
MONDAY BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NM WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP PUSH TIDE LEVELS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION NEAR THE COAST. BEACH EROSION ALSO
APPEARS LIKELY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 6...
KCHS...87 SET IN 2003
KCXM...81 SET IN 2003
KSAV...85 SET IN 2003
RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 7...
KCHS...84 SET IN 1986
KCXM...82 SET IN 1922
KSAV...86 SET IN 1986
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
158 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
Area of stratocumulus that was inching southward earlier today has
made its southernmost progress generally along I-74, and clouds on
the southern flank are breaking up early this afternoon. Some of
the high clouds over the southeast CWA had thinned out earlier, but
another wave is advancing northeast from the stream of clouds
originating in Texas. While these features will fade some with time,
some more cloudiness will be moving in later this evening with a
shortwave currently moving east from the central Plains. Net effect
will basically be partly cloudy skies over the forecast area through
tonight. Temperatures should be more November-like as opposed to the
unusually mild lows the last few nights, with most areas dipping
into the mid-upper 30s. South of I-70, the steady stream of cirrus
should keep temperatures up a bit, with lows in the lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
High pressure will continue to build into the region over the
weekend with dry and slightly below normal temperatures. This high
pressure will influence the weather through the weekend and into the
beginning of next week. As the high pressure shifts east Sunday into
Monday, temps will begin to warm back to just above normal for the
first half of the week.
As this high shifts east, a weather system will also develop out in
the western plains and move east toward the midwest for the middle
of the week. Models differ with timing and speed of this system and
associated precip. Models were quite far apart earlier today, but
are beginning to get a little closer in agreement. The Canadian and
ECMWF take the low track northwest of the area while the GFS has the
low tracking right over the CWA. Canadian is about 6hrs faster than
the ECMWF and GFS. So, taking a blend of the models, gives the
result of high chance pops for Wed, likely pops for Wed night and
then precip diminishing some Thursday. So, light precip expected
beginning Tues night and then become more moderate/heavy for Wed and
Wed night. Based on the current forecasted strong dynamics of this
system, isolated thunderstorms also look possible. Initial thoughts
are that precip will end late Thursday, bringing the return of dry
weather for Thursday night and Friday.
Above normal temps for Tue and Wed will be short lived as cooler air
will advect in behind the mid-week system, so below temps are
expected for Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
Area of MVFR ceilings settling southward from northern Illinois
and has reached about a KPIA-KPNT line, but some additional
diurnal development has occurred as far south as KDEC-KCMI. Main
period for MVFR conditions will be through early afternoon, as the
cloud heights are slowly lifting and the HRRR pulls the cloud deck
northeast out of the TAF sites by 21Z. A few more hours of gusty
winds will occur as well, before settling down with sunset. VFR
conditions to prevail the remainder of the period.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1114 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
Cold front has now cleared the far southeast CWA and temperatures
there are falling through the 50s. Remainder of the CWA starting
to recover a bit, though temperatures were in the mid-upper 40s.
Still quite a bit of high clouds streaming over southeast
Illinois, though these are starting to shift eastward.
Main concern for the rest of today is with the stratocumulus deck
that is dropping south from northern Illinois. Leading edge of
this starting to spread across areas northwest and north of
Peoria. Latest HRRR drops the clouds about as far south as the
Peoria metro and Bloomington before shifting east early this
afternoon, which is supported by the RAP forecast soundings for
these areas. Soundings further south show more in the way of
scattered clouds at best.
Zones/grids recently updated for these trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
Another breezy day is expected today across central and southeast
Illinois. However, it will be notably cooler than yesterday as a
cold front will have passed through the region overnight. Still,
these cooler temperatures will be much closer to normal for early
November than we have seen the past few days. Temperatures are still
hanging in the 60s in the far east, where FROPA has not occurred
yet, but expect temperatures in this area to fall once the front
arrives and struggle to rise much today.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
1032 mb high pressure over the Western States will settle east
into IL overnight Saturday night and across the Ohio river valley
and mid Atlantic States Sunday. This will bring cooler temperatures
to the area this weekend with highs in the 50s and lows of 35-40F
tonight and 30-35F Saturday night and Sunday night with a frost and
even a freeze likely. A northern stream short wave trof will quickly
pivot southeast across central IL Saturday morning and bring a
period of clouds and pass through dry. Otherwise a fair amount of
sunshine expected this weekend and into Monday.
A southern stream short wave will lift ne across the Southeast
States Mon and Monday night with its qpf staying southeast of IL
though southeast IL may see more clouds. Temperatures to gradually
modify into the middle of next week with southerly flow around high
pressure over southern New England Tue. Highs reach the lower 60s
Tue/Wed with southeast IL in the mid 60s on Wed. 00Z models still
differ with track of low pressure system ejecting ne from strong
upper level trof over the Rockies during middle of next week. GFS
models remains the faster with ECMWF model slowest and GEM model in
between. Stayed close to consensus pops from Tue night through Thu
and highest pops being Wed afternoon and Wed night with isolated
thunderstorms possible especially south of I-72 as consensus has
cold front passing east through IL then. Low pressure pulls away
from area Thu night and Friday returning dry and cooler weather
with highs back in the 50s on next Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
Area of MVFR ceilings settling southward from northern Illinois
and has reached about a KPIA-KPNT line, but some additional
diurnal development has occurred as far south as KDEC-KCMI. Main
period for MVFR conditions will be through early afternoon, as the
cloud heights are slowly lifting and the HRRR pulls the cloud deck
northeast out of the TAF sites by 21Z. A few more hours of gusty
winds will occur as well, before settling down with sunset. VFR
conditions to prevail the remainder of the period.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
958 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
Cold front has now cleared the far southeast CWA and temperatures
there are falling through the 50s. Remainder of the CWA starting
to recover a bit, though temperatures were in the mid-upper 40s.
Still quite a bit of high clouds streaming over southeast
Illinois, though these are starting to shift eastward.
Main concern for the rest of today is with the stratocumulus deck
that is dropping south from northern Illinois. Leading edge of
this starting to spread across areas northwest and north of
Peoria. Latest HRRR drops the clouds about as far south as the
Peoria metro and Bloomington before shifting east early this
afternoon, which is supported by the RAP forecast soundings for
these areas. Soundings further south show more in the way of
scattered clouds at best.
Zones/grids recently updated for these trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
Another breezy day is expected today across central and southeast
Illinois. However, it will be notably cooler than yesterday as a
cold front will have passed through the region overnight. Still,
these cooler temperatures will be much closer to normal for early
November than we have seen the past few days. Temperatures are still
hanging in the 60s in the far east, where FROPA has not occurred
yet, but expect temperatures in this area to fall once the front
arrives and struggle to rise much today.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
1032 mb high pressure over the Western States will settle east
into IL overnight Saturday night and across the Ohio river valley
and mid Atlantic States Sunday. This will bring cooler temperatures
to the area this weekend with highs in the 50s and lows of 35-40F
tonight and 30-35F Saturday night and Sunday night with a frost and
even a freeze likely. A northern stream short wave trof will quickly
pivot southeast across central IL Saturday morning and bring a
period of clouds and pass through dry. Otherwise a fair amount of
sunshine expected this weekend and into Monday.
A southern stream short wave will lift ne across the Southeast
States Mon and Monday night with its qpf staying southeast of IL
though southeast IL may see more clouds. Temperatures to gradually
modify into the middle of next week with southerly flow around high
pressure over southern New England Tue. Highs reach the lower 60s
Tue/Wed with southeast IL in the mid 60s on Wed. 00Z models still
differ with track of low pressure system ejecting ne from strong
upper level trof over the Rockies during middle of next week. GFS
models remains the faster with ECMWF model slowest and GEM model in
between. Stayed close to consensus pops from Tue night through Thu
and highest pops being Wed afternoon and Wed night with isolated
thunderstorms possible especially south of I-72 as consensus has
cold front passing east through IL then. Low pressure pulls away
from area Thu night and Friday returning dry and cooler weather
with highs back in the 50s on next Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
Breezy west to northwest winds are expected across the central
Illinois terminals today in the wake of a strong cold front. The
drier air filtering in behind the front is expected to keep cloud
cover minimal through the 12Z TAF valid time. Winds are expected
to diminish tonight as high pressure begins to build into the
area.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1131 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
The cold front is making steady progress toward western IL, and
should reach near the IL river valley by 07z. Lightning in precip along
the cold front has been steadily diminishing as the evening has
progressed. While thunder may be quite limited during FROPA, we
could still see some updrafts tap into the 60-70kt of 0-6km wind
shear, creating some minor tree damage at times. Will monitor any
fast moving storm segments for short term wind damage concerns.
The speed of the front should push precip into Indiana by sunrise
on Friday. Made some minor adjustments to the PoP grids to match
current timing trends, but little change occurred to the point and
click/worded forecast. Updated info is already available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Main challenge remains with the timing of the narrow line of
showers/storms tonight. Main cold front showing up on radar just
northwest of Des Moines this afternoon and extends southwest into
north central Kansas per surface observations. Strong/severe storms
are increasing over eastern Kansas and southwest Missouri, and some
of the remnants of those are progged by the HRRR to be moving into
central Illinois in the 7-9 pm time frame. Organization of the main
convective line has started, based on regional radar mosaics over
east central Minnesota and around Kansas City, and this line should
fill in over the next few hours. High-resolution models suggesting
this line should be roughly from Jacksonville-Peoria by late evening
and reach I-57 by 3 am. Not a lot of lightning anticipated with the
convection, but the RAP continues to indicate a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE and significant wind shear (0-6km bulk shear of 60-70 knots).
Latest SPC Day1 outlook maintains the marginal risk of severe storms
from about Lacon-Springfield westward. Rain should rapidly shut off
in the wake of the convective line.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
The cold front will have moved through the state by Friday morning
which will allow a dry high pressure area to build into the region
for the weekend. This high pressure will also bring in relatively
cooler temperatures through Sunday. Though cooler than what we`ve
experienced most of this week, normal temperatures in the middle 50s
will be common through the weekend and into the beginning of next
week.
When the high pressure area moves into the eastern US, southerly
winds will return to the area. Conditions will remain dry Mon and
Tue while a mid level trough builds out west. This trough will
eventually push into the midwest mid week and bring the return of
pcpn to the area for Wed through Thur. ECMWF and GFS differ on
timing of the next system, with the GFS weaker and quicker with the
system, while the ECMWF is slower and has a much stronger system
with a cutoff low associated with it. The slower ECMWF would keep
pcpn in the area through the end of the week, while the quicker GFS
bring the pcpn through by Thursday. Due to the blending of the
models, the new forecast will have pops for Wed through Thur.
However, expect the pops to reduced in places as models come into
better agreement and the expected outcome becomes better known;
which could take several days. Temps will warm back again to just
above normal, just not as warm as this past week. So, looking at mid
50s to mid 60s ahead of the mid week system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Potential for convection near our terminal sites tonight is quite
low. Lightning along the cold front has almost completely ended.
Can`t rule out a few strikes just ahead of FROPA, but overall,
main concern will be the wind. Gradient winds have been gusting to
35kt ahead of the front. Several downdrafts with collapsing storm
towers could produce some brief strong gusts as well. Behind the
front, west winds will gust to 25 kt for several hours, before
winds subside after sunrise.
PIA, BMI and CMI cloud heights are oscillating between IFR and
MVFR around 1K ft. Clouds have lifted to VFR for SPI and DEC.
Overall trend looks to be MVFR developing as the main line/front
approaches, with IFR possible for short periods of time. MVFR clouds
may hold on through mid morning, but sunny skies appear likely by
mid-day.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
242 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND OVER OUR CWA...TO THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
FROM WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AXIS OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAVE RESULTED
IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN THE WEST HAVE
RESULTED IN RAIN/SNOW MIX WHERE MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE SATURATED THE
DRY MIXED LAYER. THE FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...THE HIGHER THE WBZ
HEIGHTS ARE AND LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST...SO I WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE (ROUGHLY AROUND SUNSET). WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING...NAM/SREF STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z
SATURDAY. CONSIDERING FORECAST TEMPS THIS WOULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG
POTENTIAL AND SLICK ROADWAYS. RAP IS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...WITH HRRR
TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH AND FOG SIGNAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE I HAVE DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING FOG MENTION
IN THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...AND WILL ALLOW
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
BUILDING LEE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WAA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AT
LEAST IN THE MID 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE UPPER
50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG FIRST TWO
NIGHTS...WINDS/FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY...AND CHANCE/TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO
A MORE AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW HAS BEEN NOTED
IN THE PACIFIC IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
MODELS WERE STARTING FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS WERE NOT QUITE AMPLIFIED/TOO FAR EAST WITH THE ALASKA SYSTEM
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WAS NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH.
OVERALL THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. THE NAM
AND ECMWF WERE STARTING OUT WELL AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS/CANADIAN
AND THE ECMWF/NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGING AND DRY AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE.
COULD END UP RATHER MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR DUE TO THE WINDS
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM SHOWING FOG
IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. HOWEVER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS THE
NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS. WILL PROBABLY
END BEING A THICK FROST OR DEW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...RETREATING SURFACE HIGH/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH
CREATES A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE PROGGED 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS LOOK TO CREATE
BREEZY AND ESPECIALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. DEWPOINTS TO BE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. AT THIS TIME...THE LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SO WE LOOK SAFE FOR NOW ON FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES.
AGAIN THE NAM LOOKS LIKE IT IS OVERDOING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WITH A CONTINUED DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO WILL ONCE AGAIN END
UP AS FROST OR DEW.
MONDAY...DEEP DRY AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. AT THE SAME TIME A
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING OR BE
NEAR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT WILL PROBABLY
ONLY SEE HIGH CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. JET/LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT GETS STRONGER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO A
DEEP DRY LAYER...IT ONLY LOOKS LIKE MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN REGARDS TO THE MID LEVEL
PORTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SOME PRECIPITATION...
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...
DIFFERING TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN AND SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT. FOR THE GFS...THE LAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BECOME SLOWER AND
IT IS NOW THE SLOWEST MODEL AND ALSO A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE
12Z ECMWF STILL HAS ABOUT THE SAME PATH AND IS THE MOST WOUND UP
AS BEFORE...HOWEVER IT IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND
THE GFS. CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE.
THE GEFS TENDED TO SIDE A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION.
THE WPC DISCUSSION AND MANUAL PROGS WENT TOWARD THE INTERMEDIATE
SOLUTION...CLOSER TO THE GEFS/ECMWF MEAN SOLUTION. THE INIT BLEND
REFLECTED THE INTERMEDIATE/SLOWER SOLUTION. CONSIDERING THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...MADE NO CHANGES
TO WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR POPS. THIS AMOUNTED TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GOING WITH THE ABOVE DEPICTION...I SLOWED DOWN/KEPT THE CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW FURTHER WEST. ALL SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TO JUST ACROSS THE COLORADO BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS.
A MIXTURE WILL BE JUST EAST OF THAT AND ALL RAIN STILL IN THE
EAST. THE SNOW OR MIXTURE SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO RAIN BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT AND HAVE THE MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW ENDING AT
THAT TIME. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING NEAR AN INCH IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BUT THAT COULD CHANGE QUICKLY IF MORE WAFFLING
OF SOLUTIONS OCCUR.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL COOL
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
BOTH TERMINALS WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON.
BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS I COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
IN THE AFTERNOON...SO I INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP. WASNT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DROP CATEGORY TO 1500 KFT AGL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IN THE 00-03Z TIME
FRAME AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EASTWARD.
SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FREEZING FOG
AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08-09Z...PRIMARILY ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THERE IS HIGH VARIANCE IN
THE TREATMENT ON DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WHICH WOULD GREATLY IMPACT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.
AS A RESULT I DECIDED AGAINST LOWERING CATEGORIES BELOW VFR.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
150 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND OVER OUR CWA...TO THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
FROM WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AXIS OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAVE RESULTED
IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN THE WEST HAVE
RESULTED IN RAIN/SNOW MIX WHERE MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE SATURATED THE
DRY MIXED LAYER. THE FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...THE HIGHER THE WBZ
HEIGHTS ARE AND LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST...SO I WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE (ROUGHLY AROUND SUNSET). WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING...NAM/SREF STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z
SATURDAY. CONSIDERING FORECAST TEMPS THIS WOULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG
POTENTIAL AND SLICK ROADWAYS. RAP IS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...WITH HRRR
TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH AND FOG SIGNAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE I HAVE DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING FOG MENTION
IN THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...AND WILL ALLOW
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
BUILDING LEE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WAA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AT
LEAST IN THE MID 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE UPPER
50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
THE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM AS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A
TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES APPROACHING AND
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. IT APPEARS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS THE
GFS PRODUCES TWO SEPARATE LOW CENTERS...THE FIRST OF WHICH LIFTS
OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE SECOND CENTER IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
SINGLE LOW CENTER PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF THAT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT THE GFS IS A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS ONTO PRECIPITATION
LONGER WITH GREATER AMOUNTS SHOWING UP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS
IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL NOT
CONFIDENT IN ANY SINGLE SOLUTION GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION DEPICTED. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT PRODUCES SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS MY FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS...PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS HAVE TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF 0" ALONG THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
BORDERS AND AROUND 1.3" NEAR THE NEBRASKA...COLORADO...KANSAS
TRI-BORDER AREA.
MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EVEN MORE THURSDAY AND BEYOND WITH A
GENERAL DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HIGH SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
BOTH TERMINALS WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON.
BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS I COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
IN THE AFTERNOON...SO I INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP. WASNT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DROP CATEGORY TO 1500 KFT AGL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IN THE 00-03Z TIME
FRAME AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EASTWARD.
SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FREEZING FOG
AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08-09Z...PRIMARILY ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THERE IS HIGH VARIANCE IN
THE TREATMENT ON DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WHICH WOULD GREATLY IMPACT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.
AS A RESULT I DECIDED AGAINST LOWERING CATEGORIES BELOW VFR.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1034 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 833 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER WORDING FOR ALL AREAS...AND
TO WORK IN LATEST TEMP TRENDS FROM THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OF
OBSERVATIONS. CURRENTLY...CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S. WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE
TRENDED TO MORE LIGHTER...WHICH IS GOING TO AMPLIFY THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS...HAVE LEFT FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTACT FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD
TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US...WITH RIDGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG COLORADO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PLUME OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR CWA
BEHIND COLD FRONT...WHICH IS NOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS
TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS HAVE SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND...IN LINE WITH
TRENDS INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION EASTWARD...STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP PUT SHOWER THREAT TO AN END AND SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS CLOUD COVER COMBINED IN A SHIFT IN WINDS
TO THE WEST COULD COMPLICATE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING...HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS
AND WINDS INCREASE MORE THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THIS COULD VARY BY
5-10F.
FRIDAY...SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION AND
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
PASS WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA. STRONG FORCING SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...HOWEVER THERE SEEM TO BE TWO CAMPS REGARDING PRECIP
POTENTIAL. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION...AND HIGHER QPF ACROSS OUR CWA. NAM/SREF/ARW/NMM
ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AT MOST SOME
SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTH. I KEPT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON (TRANSITIONING SOUTHEAST) WHICH FOLLOWS
ECMWF/GFS. WHILE I DO NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO ONE SOLUTION OR
ANOTHER...CONSIDERING THE FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY THIS SEEMED TO BE
THE BEST APPROACH FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AND CONSIDERING A SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS TODAY I STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN BEFORE THE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE BEGIN TO COOL.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB SLOWLY SATURDAY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND INTO THE LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE
GENERATING A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TRI STATE
AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FORECASTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE EVENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS
SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND
LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LONGER WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A
STRONGER JET ALOFT OF 70KTS IS POSSIBLE...A LACK OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP A
LATE SEASON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MINIMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
AS RAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WHERE A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED CONSIDERING
THE GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE ALSO NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED
LOW AND THE GFS HAVING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE FORECASTS AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL COOL OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
FOR KGLD/KMCK...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN150-250 THRU 17Z FRIDAY THEN
BKN070-110 WITH SOME VCSH. WINDS WNW AROUND 5-10KTS THRU 17Z THEN
SHIFTING BETWEEN NE-NW FOR REST OF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1157 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1156 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Updated for 06z TAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 559 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Updated for the 00Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
The HRRR is still trying to figure out the convective evolution
tonight. Earlier it appeared a consensus was building for the
current area of showers to dissipate as it moved through southern
Illinois this evening, and then the main QLCS activity would move
back into the area around midnight. The most recent runs are a
bit more diverse, building more intense convection northeast
through the boot heel 03-06Z and then through west Kentucky mostly
by 09Z. This run is showing a more signifant LEWP structure than
we have seen before. So this is actually an escalation from what
we have been expecting.
The bottom line is that the larger-scale models continue to
develop plenty of low-level shear and most unstable CAPE to
support severe weather in the form of damaging winds and tornadoes
as the main line moves through the region late this evening and
overnight. There still is the potential for the system to produce
little or no lightning.
Most of the overnight activity will be east southeast of the area
by 12Z. There is a small chance of showers streaming east
northeast along the Tennessee border through Friday night, as a
larger-scale trough approaches the area. Will keep a small pop
down there to handle this possibility.
Generally trended toward the warm side guidance for highs and lows
through Friday night, then toward the cool side Saturday through
Saturday night.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Confidence is medium but a bit better than previous runs until mid
to late next week then timing confidence is very low.
The models now are in good agreement of a cut off low...caught up in
a weak perturbation...will pass just our northwest. As it passes it
pulls gulf moisture to its southeast over the pah fa and create
enough lift to produce some showers at least over the southeast
portion Monday. Where the models differ is the exact path of the
low. Some would bring it through the fa while others keep farther to
northwest. They also differ on the western extent of the rain. They
do however agree the closed low will open up and accelerate out of
the area. The models are in fair agreement of spotty waa type
showers in the lows wake. These would be low confidence and would
yield very little rain or coverage if they do occur...so most areas
dry until the next system arrives. The models continue to be around
24 hours apart on the next system. Confidence in another system is
fair but timing of system is low. Right now the GFS is the fastest
with the system arriving around 6z Wed. The DGEX is in the middle
with arrival Wed aftn. Finally the ECMWF brings it in Thursday
around 12z. Some elevated instability was indicated with K index
values around 35. Surface based instability is not indicated at this
time. Will likely hold off introduction of thunder unless
collaboration calls for it and then it would only be isolated at
best. Will hold off and see what the extended init yields and use
collaboration to try and present a reasonable solution at this
juncture. Temperatures will start out below normal and slowly warm
to near normal next week that is until the mid to late week system
moves through then back below normal expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1156 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Large rain shield with embedded thunder has engulfed the area late
this evening. Terminals will see MVFR/low VFR cigs along with
IFR/MVFR vsbys. Cigs will lower more as the rain comes to an end.
Low MVFR and possibly some IFR cigs will be around into the
morning hrs. Strong clearing still on track to progress across the
region during the mid to late morning hrs. Northwest winds around
10 kts will be seen tmrw as high pressure builds in.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...SP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
722 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW THEN LIFTS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WV IMAGERY AND 07/19Z RAP MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS BEING
PUSHED EWD AS A RESULT OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
NRN HIGH PLAINS. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOIST FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND IN A
ZONE OF SW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND A RIDGE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WRN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A THE LEADING
EDGE OF A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AND NOW
EXTENDS WSW-ENE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. 1030MB
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT AND MOIST FRONTAL BAND S OF
THE LOCAL AREA BY LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CAA WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NW. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WRN NC NE THROUGH THE DELMARVA...WITH
THE EARLIER BATCH OF RAIN (AND EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER NE NC) NOW
OFFSHORE. HIGH-RES DATA SUGGESTS SOME RAIN WILL RE-DEVELOP ACROSS SE
VA/NE NC THROUGH THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH THE EVENING. CLOUDY
EARLY...WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED ACROSS THE N LATE. FORECAST LOWS
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NW...TO THE LOW 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS WITH REGARD TO 1030+ MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ESE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
SUNDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING
OFFSHORE MONDAY. N/NE FLOW WILL BE STRONG SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE
COAST WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...15-20 MPH FARTHER INLAND. THE WIND
DIMINISHES SUNDAY AFTN AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN AND THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS. THE FLOW IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING SO IN SPITE
OF FULL SUN MOST AREAS IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR HIGHS ON
SUNDAY...FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S N...TO NEAR 60 OVER THE SOUTH. GIVEN
THE STRONG HIGH WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE SUN NIGHT OVER THE
PIEDMONT WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S FROM THE PIEDMONT TO
THE MD ERN SHORE. FARTHER SE...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE QUICKER ALLOWING FOR SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 40S. CLOUDS INCREASE/THICKEN MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVES NE. GIVEN THE QUICKER 12Z
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CHC POPS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS MONDAY (PRIMARILY
DURING THE AFTN). LIMITED MIXING SO HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL-
SIDE OF NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 50S NW...TO MID 60S SE.
12Z/07 MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS A
WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION. THEREFORE POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY FARTHER INLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN 0.5". CLOUDY WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE
UPPER 40S NW...TO AROUND 60 SE...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY FROM THE UPPER
50S/AROUND 60 NW...TO THE UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LO PRES ALNG OR JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST TUE EVENG...WILL MOVE
OUT TO SEA TUE NGT INTO WED MORNG. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION
DURING WED...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST WED NGT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FM THE W. THAT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA ON
THU...THEN PUSHES OUT TO SEA THU NGT. COOL HI PRES THEN BLDS
TWD/INTO THE REGION FOR FRI THRU SAT. SO...LINGERING SML OR SLGT
CHC OF RAIN EARLY TUE NGT...THEN DRY WX WED INTO WED NGT. SLGT CHC
TO CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU INTO THU EVENG. DRY WX AGAIN FRI THRU
SAT. LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S WED MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID
50S THU MORNG...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S FRI MORNG...AND IN THE
UPR 30S TO UPR 40S SAT MORNG. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO ARND 70 WED
AND THU...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR
60S SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF SE VA/NE NC. -RA HAS ENDED AT KRIC/KSBY AND WILL
END AT REMAINING TAF SITES BY 03Z. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY N WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST TNGT
AND SUNDAY. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS AT ORF DUE TO A SURGE DOWN THE
BAY.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING OFF THE CST AND SE OF NE NC CSTL WTRS LATE
THIS AFTN. N WINDS WERE STARTING TO PICK UP ACRS THE WTRS...AND
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENG/OVRNGT...AS HI PRES BLDNG EWRD FM THE OH
VALLEY USHERS LO LEVEL CAA INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL THE WTRS TNGT THRU SUN AFTN. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS...EVEN IN THE BAY. WAVES WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5 FT...AND SEAS 4
TO 6 FT N...TO 6 TO 8 FT S. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE WTRS ON SUN...
LOCATING OVER THE NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN AND SUN NGT. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE WTRS LATE SUN. SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...FINALLY DROPPING BELOW 5
FT SUN EVENG. FLOW THEN BECOMES ONSHORE SUN NGT AOB 15 KT. THE
HI SLIDES OFFSHR ON MON. LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG A CSTL TROF LATE
MON INTO TUE MORNG...THEN LIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST
TUE INTO TUE NGT. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA...SEAS
COULD BLD TO 5 FT OR HIGHER TUE INTO WED MORNG. HI PRES BLDS BACK
OVER THE REGION DURING WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THU.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634>638-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
619 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM NE CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
SHRTWV THAT WAS SLIDING THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR HELPED SUPPORT A
MESO-LOW LIKE BAND OF PCPN AND WINDS THROUGH SRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW
LEVEL TEMPS WERE WARM ENOUGH SO THAT MAINLY RAIN WAS OBSERVED INTO
P53. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN FARTHER INLAND
SIMILR TO WHAT OCCURRED OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING WHERE A COATING
OF SNOW FELL.
TONIGHT INTO SUN...EXPECT SCT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO CONTINUE FOR NW
FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE ERN CWA WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND
-6C/-15C AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING. 300-310 WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THE PCPN MAINLY FROM P53 EASTWARD. WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO WRLY WITH QUICKLY FALLING
INVERSION HEIGHTS BY 06Z WHICH SHOULD END THE PCPN. MAINLY RAIN
IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SHORE WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INLAND. ANY
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. INLAND...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN WITH FCST MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1K FT...SUNSHINE AND WAA WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO LOWER 50S SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MID TO LATE WEEK...
UPPER LEVELS START OUT ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT RIDGE FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. CUTOFF SHORTWAVE DRIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY...BUT SYSTEM IS SO STARVED FOR
MOISTURE PROBABLY WILL NOT EVEN SEE ANY HIGH CLOUDS. MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
50S WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SW-S. MIXING HEIGHTS FORECAST TO BE 2-3KFT
BUT IF THEY END UP HIGHER COULD SEE MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY REACH NEAR
60 DEGREES AT DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF WEST AND CNTRL NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT COULD DIP NEAR FREEZING
AT SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE H8-H7 AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
AHEAD OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH CROSSING WESTERN CONUS AND SFC TROUGH FM
EASTERN CO INTO NORTHERN MN. STRONGEST SFC LOW IN THE TROUGH WITH
MSLP OF 995-1000MB WILL BE OVER CO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. POPS ONLY LOW
CHANCE TUE NIGHT THOUGH AS LIFT IS WEAK AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE
LACKING. MAY EVEN BE SITUATION WHERE DZ OCCURS INSTEAD OF RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS.
ATTN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ON DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER KS/NEB DOWN TO MSLP OF 990-995MB. SETUP AT LEAST FOR MOST OF
DAY APPEARS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT/LARGER SCALE FORCING. SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATER TUE AFTN. SE WINDS MAY
RESULT IN BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY OVER CNTRL CWA DUE TO
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFT. DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SOME
RAIN IN ADDITION TO SE WINDS OFF LK MICHIGAN...TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL STAY NEAR 50 DEGREES. THIS IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER.
WESTERN TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THIS DEEP SYSTEM ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
DEEPENING SFC LOW /FALLING BLO 990MB ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT
MOVES FROM IA TO WI/ LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
DEEP LIFT FM THE STRONG UPPER LOW /12 HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 300M IN 12
HRS/ AND SHARP RIBBON OF 1000-850MB THETA-E/PWATS OVER 1 INCH SHOULD
SUPPORT SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TO NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRYING ALOFT MOVING IN WITH UPPER SYSTEM
OVERNIGHT LEADS TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE
TSRA. DRY SLOT EVENTUALLY SHOULD DIMINISH RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. E-SE WINDS WILL GET GUSTY AS THE DEEPENING SFC LOW
MOVES CLOSER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND OVER EASTERN CWA.
SINCE CORE OF UPPER LOW AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT MOVES ACROSS ON
THURSDAY...KEPT MENTION OF TSRA IN THE MORNING.
GRANTED A LOT CAN CHANGE IN THE MODELS BTWN NOW AND LATER THIS WEEK
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CAUSE THIS LOW IS STILL
OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...BUT ATTM BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF RUNS
SINCE LAST EVENING INDICATE SFC LOW POSSIBLY BLO 980MB CROSSES CNTRL
UPR MICHIGAN THURSDAY. WITH SUCH STRONG LOW OVERHEAD...ATTN ONCE THE
LOW MOVES BY WILL TURN TO COLD AIR ADVECITON AND PROBABLY MORE OF AN
ISSUE...VERY STRONG W-WNW WINDS. SFC LOW WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF LK
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN. THOUGH THE ECWMF IS AROUND 10 MB
WEAKER WITH MSLP CENTER COMPARED TO GFS...WIND FIELDS WITH SYSTEM ARE
SIMILAR. BOTH MODELS SHOW H925 WINDS 50 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR THU
EVENING. WINDS ARE PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE
1000-850MB LAYER SO MIXING SHOULD BE EFFICENT. DO NOT SEE WHY THERE
WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM. INCREASED WINDS OVER
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. RESULT IS A SOLID GALE OVER LK SUPERIOR...LIKELY
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR ADVY LEVEL
WINDS ALONG LK SUPERIOR SHORE FOR AREAS FAVORED BY W-WNW WINDS.
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT APPEARS TO BE REINFORCED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT COLD AIR /H85
TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY ARE AROUND -6C/ TO RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
FOR MUCH OF CWA ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WOULD BE FAVORED FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. STRONG GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS. TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN
THE 30S OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LK
MICHIGAN. TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS NEXT SATURDAY AND SFC LOW MOVES INTO
QUEBEC. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN THIS EVENING WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN LAKES BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS.
AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY...SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS TO 25 KTS REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. E GALES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
LATE THU INTO FRI...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1156 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE WIND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL
ON FRIDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THE ARRIVAL OF A 50 KT 925 MB LLJ 06Z TO 12Z
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUGGESTS A RISK FOR
STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZING DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN. STILL THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE
SHARP SO WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH. TRENDS IN THE HRRR ARE
FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH TIME ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AS
FAR AS SEVERE GUSTS I THINK THE RISK IS LOW...BUT VALUES OVER 40
MPH ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. SOME SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS EVENT. THE SPC MARGINAL RISK LOOKS GOOD FOR LATER
TONIGHT.
THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT SOONER FRIDAY MORNING SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED DOWNWARD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF DRY WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE MORE
TYPICAL OF FALL...WHICH TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FORECAST GETS INCREASINGLY CHALLENGING WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
ENTERING THE PICTURE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BOTH ECM/GFS TAKE A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.
LATE THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL
AID IN THE GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT FLOW
THEN DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM. AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE MIDWEST. LONG RANGE MODELS TEND TO DIVERGE AT THIS
POINT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. WHILE BOTH ECM/GFS PICK UP ON A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THE PAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN
PLACING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY. OVERALL I
KEPT THINGS DRY AS NOT MUCH SUPPORT EXISTS FOR SHOWERS...BUT IT
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AT LEAST SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA HINDERED WITH SOME CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.
THINGS GET A BIT TRICKY BY WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A BIG SPREAD IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE GFS IS LESS
PRONOUNCED...FURTHER NORTH/WEST AND QUICKER IN BRINING PRECIPITATION
IN BY WEDNESDAY AND EXITING BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE ECM ON THE OTHER
HAND DEVELOPS A SLOWER CUTOFF SYSTEM. THIS EVENTUALLY BECOMES A
STRONGER SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECM SOLUTION WOULD HOLD
OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WOULD
SPELL OUT A RAINY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD DRAG ON INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE WITH RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES BUT LOW
WITH TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MVFR SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GO WEST AFTER 12Z AND GUST OVER 25
KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
CLOSE CALL FOR GALES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
WAVES AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE SLIGHTLY AFTER LAST WEEK/S RAIN.
THE SLOW FALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR JACKSON TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR LUDINGTON IS POSSIBLE WITH MANY
AREAS RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE
RIVERS TO INCH BACK UP...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...04
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1122 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE EXPECT BREEZY AND
COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 40S. THIS WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE
FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT DESPITE THE NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN
THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY RIGHT AT THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP13 PRESSURE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE 984MB SURFACE LOW APPROACHING JAMES BAY...WITH THE COOL
CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO TEXAS. THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT TOGETHER WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER COLD AIR ADVECTION KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL WEST NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. LOW STRATUS WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH COOLING H850 TEMPS NEAR -2 TO -4C. THEREFORE EXPECT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER TODAY...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
06.00 NCAR ENSEMBLE AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HOPWRF.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. CLOUDS SHOULD START
TO BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT AS H500MB HEIGHT RISES PROMOTES WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S/50S RANGE WILL MODERATE TO SUNDAY READINGS FROM 50 TO 60
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND AS WELL...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT
READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE RAIN POSSIBILITIES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO
DWINDLE...WITH MODELS SPLITTING THE SYSTEM INTO TWO PIECES OF
ENERGY. THE NORTHERN WAVE PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH 20-30 POPS THE BEST BET. STILL
LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WANING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 21Z ACROSS
OUR AREA...AND THEN LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER
THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ON SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.
KMSP...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS
THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY RISE TO VFR BY 21Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WITH WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE WNW THROUGH SATURDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SSW AT 15-20 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SSW AT 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND S AT 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ADL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
533 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE EXPECT BREEZY AND
COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 40S. THIS WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE
FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT DESPITE THE NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN
THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY RIGHT AT THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP13 PRESSURE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE 984MB SURFACE LOW APPROACHING JAMES BAY...WITH THE COOL
CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO TEXAS. THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT TOGETHER WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER COLD AIR ADVECTION KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL WEST NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. LOW STRATUS WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH COOLING H850 TEMPS NEAR -2 TO -4C. THEREFORE EXPECT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER TODAY...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
06.00 NCAR ENSEMBLE AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HOPWRF.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. CLOUDS SHOULD START
TO BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT AS H500MB HEIGHT RISES PROMOTES WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S/50S RANGE WILL MODERATE TO SUNDAY READINGS FROM 50 TO 60
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND AS WELL...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT
READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE RAIN POSSIBILITIES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO
DWINDLE...WITH MODELS SPLITTING THE SYSTEM INTO TWO PIECES OF
ENERGY. THE NORTHERN WAVE PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH 20-30 POPS THE BEST BET. STILL
LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WANING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND CLOUD BASES WILL NOT LIFT MUCH UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT.
KMSP...
PRETTY STRAIGHT FOWARD CONDITIONS AT MSP. CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND
MOST OF THE DAY TODAY...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND W AT 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SSW AT 15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SSW AT 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
411 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE EXPECT BREEZY AND
COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 40S. THIS WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE
FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT DESPITE THE NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN
THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY RIGHT AT THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP13 PRESSURE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE 984MB SURFACE LOW APPROACHING JAMES BAY...WITH THE COOL
CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO TEXAS. THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT TOGETHER WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER COLD AIR ADVECTION KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL WEST NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. LOW STRATUS WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH COOLING H850 TEMPS NEAR -2 TO -4C. THEREFORE EXPECT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER TODAY...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
06.00 NCAR ENSEMBLE AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HOPWRF.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. CLOUDS SHOULD START
TO BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT AS H500MB HEIGHT RISES PROMOTES WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S/50S RANGE WILL MODERATE TO SUNDAY READINGS FROM 50 TO 60
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND AS WELL...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT
READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE RAIN POSSIBILITIES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO
DWINDLE...WITH MODELS SPLITTING THE SYSTEM INTO TWO PIECES OF
ENERGY. THE NORTHERN WAVE PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH 20-30 POPS THE BEST BET. STILL
LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WANING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD STRONG OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW AS ONE
CDFNT DEPARTS AND A SECONDARY DRY CDFNT APPROACHES EARLY ON FRIDAY
AND GRADUALLY PUSHES ACRS THE AREA. NO PRECIPITATION AND NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...JUST CEILINGS IN THE 2000-2500FT AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CEILINGS HEIGHTEN WELL INTO VFR RANGE.
WINDS TO REMAIN WNW IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT LATE.
KMSP...CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 1800 FT THRU THIS
TAF PERIOD BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE CEILINGS COULD DROP TO ARND
1700 FT BY THE MORNING PUSH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS THINKING
ATTM BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...CEILING TO REMAIN IN
UPPER- RANGE MVFR THROUGH MIDDAY THEN INCREASE TO 5 KFT...AND
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 10 KFT...FRI AFTN AND EVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND W 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SSW 15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SSW 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1017 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND END THE STRETCH OF
WARMTH. MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
FOLLOWS THIS BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY AND THEN
HEAVIER RAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MILD WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A LATE THURSDAY COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS STEADILY ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD...PUSHING ONE OF THE WARMEST NOVEMBER AIRMASSES IN HISTORY
OFF TO THE SOUTH. RECORD HIGHS WERE BROKEN IN WILMINGTON AND NORTH
MYRTLE BEACH EARLIER TODAY WITH 84 AND 81 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY.
CURRENTLY THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF WILMINGTON TO NEAR
THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES...TO NEAR CONWAY AND LAKE CITY.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE WIND SHIFT AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION...THE
ONSET OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IS LAGGING BY 1-2 HOURS BEHIND THIS
INITIAL WIND SHIFT. ONCE THIS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THERE WILL BE NO
DOUBT MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR IS STREAMING IN.
AFTER DECIDING NOT TO RAISE POPS WITH THE 630 PM UPDATE...THE WEAK
LINE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION SUDDENLY BECAME MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE...EXPANDING IN COVERAGE INTO ALMOST A SOLID LINE. SEVERAL
UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST BETWEEN 7-830 PM
ATTEMPTING TO QUICKLY INCREASE POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION. I CANNOT FIND A CLEAR REASON FOR WHY PRECIPITATION
EXPANDED AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONTENT CHANGED LITTLE
THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION INTENSIFIED WELL BEFORE THE FRONT
WAS NEAR THE AREA SUGGESTING LOW-LEVEL TRIGGERS WERE NOT INVOLVED
EITHER. NEAR-TERM MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND RUC WERE EQUALLY BAFFLED.
REGARDLESS...CONVECTION SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL...
NAMELY ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ANALYSIS OF NAM/GFS MODELS SHOWS THIS NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS BEING
GENERATED BY MOISTURE AND MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 305K-310K
THETA SURFACES...APPROXIMATELY 8000-13000 FEET AGL. UPSTREAM RADARS
SHOW ONLY PATCHY AND VERY LIGHT RETURNS OVER GEORGIA...WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY SHOWING TRACE AMOUNTS. AT THE RISK OF MAKING
THE SAME MISTAKE TWICE IN ONE SHIFT...I WILL NOT RAISE POPS LATE
TONIGHT ANTICIPATING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL BE VERY VERY
LIGHT.
WIND GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD REACH 25-30 MPH IN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO
MIX DOWN GUSTS TO 2000 FEET ALOFT. THE GFS MODEL IS GENERALLY
STRONGER WITH WIND SPEEDS AND ACTUALLY SUGGESTS GUSTS COULD REACH 35
MPH NEAR THE COAST IN THE 3-6 AM TIMEFRAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THOUGH SURFACE WEATHER MAP WILL SHOW COLD
FRONT STALLED WELL TO OUR SOUTH A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE GRADIENT AND
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON
SUNDAY. IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM
TIME TO TIME WITH GENTLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THE MAIN SOURCE FOR
LIFT. ON MONDAY THE FRONT WILL DRAW CLOSER TO AND PARALLEL TO THE
COAST WHILE THE COOL WEDGE OVER LAND MAY BE STRENGTHENED AS IT
GETS RAIN-COOLED. WHERE EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL DICTATE
WHO SEES THE MOST RAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN TO BE HAD. THE GFS
FOCUSES THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG THE COAST WHEREAS THE WRF HAS A MUCH
MORE EVEN DISTRIBUTION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF A BLEND
OF THE TWO AS WELL AS SEEMINGLY THE WETTEST AT LEAST OVER THE ILM
CWA. SO WHILE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAINFALL FORECAST ARE TOUGH
TO RULE OUT THE CURRENT EVENT TOTAL WILL RANGE FROM A HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH DARLINGTON/MARLBORO TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH TO ONE INCH ROUGHLY ALONG I-95 BORDERING COUNTIES TO 1-1.5
INCHES COASTAL COUNTIES, AND LIKELY 2 INCHES AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, MAINLY IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONGLY
INTO THE WARM SECTOR WE GET MONDAY NIGHT WE MAY SEE A NON-DIURNAL
CURVE IN TEMPS AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS INSTABILITY IS
MAINTAINED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIP AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING COASTAL LOW/WAVE SHOULD QUICKLY COME
TO AN END AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE REGION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
CEASES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TUE THROUGH THU WITH
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW TUE INTO WED BECOMING AMPLIFIED WED NIGHT
AND THU AHEAD OF STACKED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW
WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED AND THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
ARE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THE FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN
THE EVENING AND THERE MAY BE SOME LIMITED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
AS WELL AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER.
WILL INTRODUCE A SILENT POP THU BUT THINK MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF COLD ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO
TUE-THU WILL DROP BACK NEAR CLIMO FRI...ALTHOUGH HIGHS ARE STILL
LIKELY TO END UP ABOVE CLIMO. SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA MOVES OVER
THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL DROP TEMPS A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMO SAT DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS EVENING. SCT/BKN IFR STRATUS
AND MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
GENERALLY VFR CIGS 4-8K...PERIODS OF LIGHT RA...AND GUSTY N WINDS
EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. THE GREATEST THREAT OF REDUCED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE THIS EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. TEMPO MVFR IS MOST LIKELY BUT
TEMPO IFR IS POSSIBLE AT KMYR WHICH HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A
HEAVIER SHOWER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM SATURDAY...THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS STEADILY ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. AT 10 PM IT IS SITUATED
ALONG A LINE FROM CAROLINA BEACH THROUGH HOLDEN BEACH...THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST INLAND FROM MYRTLE BEACH. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHERLY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BUT THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
HOURS STILL BEFORE THE SURGE OF MUCH STRONGER WIND ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. ANALYSIS OF UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE HAMPTON ROADS
AREA OF VIRGINIA AND THE NC OUTER BANKS SHOWS MODELS ARE DOING A
PRETTY GOOD JOB WITH WIND SPEEDS...GIVING US AT LEAST SOME SHORT-
TERM CONFIDENCE THAT SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS WILL NOT OCCUR OVER
THE NC/SC COASTAL WATERS. GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY 2-3 FEET BUT SHOULD BUILD VERY RAPIDLY AFTER
THE ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS IN A FEW HOURS. MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE
CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT TO GO DOWNHILL IN A HURRY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LONG FUSED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE AS
NASTY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINES.
SUNDAY`S STRONG GRADIENT A RESULT OF 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE PAIRED WITH SHALLOW
MIXING THEY WILL LIKELY NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE
WATCH. ON MONDAY THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY WILL BACK UP TO THE COAST IF
NOT MOVE JUST INLAND. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN TO ONSHORE. HOW
FAR INLAND THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ITS
RAMIFICATIONS TO THE WIND AND WAVES FORECAST. SHOULD IT REMAIN OVER
THE WATERS THEN CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE IN
THE DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TUE AND WED WILL VEER
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. GRADIENT AT
TIMES ON TUE/WED WILL SUPPORT WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 KT. THIS WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 6 FT AT
TIMES THROUGH WED EVENING. GRADIENT WEAKENS WED NIGHT INTO THU AS
WINDS VEER TO SOUTHERLY. SPEEDS DROP UNDER 10 KT WED NIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE THU MORNING. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 15
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT WITH DIRECTION BECOMING MORE
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN DIRECTION
WILL PRODUCE SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT WED NIGHT AND THU.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
252 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...AND MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT SEEM TO CAPTURE IT...BUT ALMOST CERTAIN
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...IN MODEST
850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS NOTED ON THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS... LIKELY RESULTING IN THE PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING TOWARD THE TRIANGLE AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE NATURE
OF ITS PERSISTENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO NOTE THIS FEATURE IN THE
GRIDDED FORECASTS...DIMINISHING BY 00Z AND PROBABLY BEFORE IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. AFTERWARD...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
PERSISTENTLY HIGH OVERNIGHT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO AT LEAST AROUND
1.75 INCHES UNDER MODEST 850MB CONVERGENCE. ANY MID-LEVEL WAVES
MOVING THROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
WEAK. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO...BUT PROBABLY JUST NORTHWEST OF...THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH 06Z...BUT
OVERNIGHT...THE RAP AND THE HRRR WRF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS IN
DEPICTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM...
MOIST FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH A PARTICULAR FOCUS IN
AND NEAR THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DECENT CHANCE POPS WILL BE
INTRODUCED FOR PART OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOCUSED FROM THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO PART OF THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY AN AREA
OF BREAKS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
AS WELL AS THE HRRR WRF FORECAST DEPICT A RETURN TO LOW CLOUDS BY
LATE EVENING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHICH SHOULD MAKE
THE NIGHT...ON AVERAGE...MOSTLY CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN A LIGHT
BUT NOTICEABLE SOUTHWEST WIND MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS...BUT EVEN THE LATTER
MODEL...ALONG WITH THE LATEST ECMWF...MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PROGRESSION EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT THE
FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE FRONT
SEEMS TO OUTRUN ITS UPPER SUPPORT...WITH JET SUPPORT STAYING NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BEING WELL POST-FRONTAL. IN THIS
SITUATION WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED FRONT THERE IS A LITTLE CONCERN
THAT THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS COULD BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION...BUT
ALL OF THE TYPICAL NWP GUIDANCE ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DELAYS MUCH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE AND
THERE WILL ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES AT BEST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL LOCATIONS LIKELY-TO-CATEGORICAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS K INDICES FALL TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS TO SINGLE FIGURES AT
BEST...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AT OR BELOW AN INCH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY NOTE MODEST INSTABILITY...AND COMPUTED CAPE
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS REGISTER...AT BEST...100 TO 200J/KG IN
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ALSO
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW A
GRADUAL FALL WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
LIKELY TOWARD THE TRIAD WHERE VALUES NEAR 70 AROUND LUNCH TIME COULD
BE ONLY IN THE MID 50S BY 7 OR 8 PM. AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
EXPECT A FEW NOCTURNAL WIND GUSTS AT LEAST TO AROUND 20KT WITH 925MB
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30KT OVERNIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FOR MINS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR NOVEMBER 7. HOWEVER...EVENING COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 7 OCCURRING
AT MIDNIGHT...WITH PROBABLY ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THE RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM OF 65 AT FAYETTEVILLE...FROM 2003...BEING APPROACHED.
LEANING TOWARD THE MAV WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESS TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...A COOL MORNING TO
START SUNDAY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE
MID 50S NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH AND SETTLING JUST OFF THE NC COAST AND ACROSS GA/SC AS A
PROGRESSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. NWP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
DRIER ON SUNDAY AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TOUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE GUSTO.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A GOOD SURGE OF DRY AIR TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS A 1032MB HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHALLOW
STRATO-CUMULUS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
IT WILL BE CHILLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S... ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A STIRRING OF THE WIND SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION APPEARS IN THE OFFING FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LINGERING COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
RETREAT WESTWARD AS AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IN THE MO VALLEY MOVES
EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT. WHILE DETAILS AMONG THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE SETS VARY...AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE SAVANAH RIVER VALLEY AND SC COAST
MONDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
POPS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH THE GREATEST POPS
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE SHEARING SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIFT
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASING.
WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ENDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CAD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE FAVORED
DAMMING REGION ALTHOUGH THEY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE.
EXPECT SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE THE MAIN DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...STUBBORN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT APPEARS TO LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE TRIANGLE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY AROUND KRDU DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN EVENTUALLY DIMINISHES AS
GUIDANCE PERSISTENTLY SUGGESTS...ATTENTION IS THEN DRAWN TO AMOUNT
AND HEIGHT OF CLOUD COVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN A
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED ALTHOUGH IT
HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND MOSTLY NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE AND TOWARD
INTERSTATE 95. WHATEVER IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD AMOUNT AND HEIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD RETURN TO IFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF LIFR
OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES TOWARD THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. DURING
SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS CEILINGS IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MOSTLY MVFR BY THE END OF THE
18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY.
VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS BECOME WIDESPREAD VFR SUNDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY ACCORDING TO
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE MORE AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ONCE
AGAIN...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND AREAS OF SUB-VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
102 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...AND MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM FRIDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A MODEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER RIDGE OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODEST
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST
OFFSHORE...WITH ANY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THAT FLOW FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD
KCLT AND THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT AS OF THIS WRITING...AND IF RAP AND
BUFR SOUNDINGS VERIFY ALONG WITH HRRR WRF GUIDANCE...THIS RAIN
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. STILL...THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH
PROGRESS EAST IN SPACE AND INTENSITY THAT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON IS PRUDENT. CONSIDERED A FEW SPRINKLES INTO THE TRIAD BUT
THE RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A MORE EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE AREA OF
RAIN AND EVEN THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TRIAD DRY.
CLOUDS ARE ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST...WITH ALREADY SOME SMALL
CLEAR PATCHES IN THE AREA. MORE TEXTURED CLOUDS WITH THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT ANY CLEARING FOR A WHILE IN THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT...AND THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MORE NUMEROUS BREAKS OCCURRING BETWEEN
ABOUT 19Z AND 21Z. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
AND CLOUD TRENDS THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW
BREAKS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN SPACE AND TIME LIKELY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE....AND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW...EVEN WITH AN HOUR
OR TWO OF BREAKS TEMPERATURES COULD RISE QUICKLY AND DID NOT CHANGES
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOW
DOWN AS IT ADVANCES EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AWAITING A SECONDARY POSITIVE-TILTED
TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BEFORE IT FINALLY CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN/INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEE SOME
SPOTTY PRE-FRONTAL WAA SHOWERS SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN-CENTRAL
PIEDMONT LATE BY DAYBREAK. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
...ANOTHER WET AND DREARY SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE BAND THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z-
18Z IN THE WEST TO 00 TO 03Z IN THE EAST.
STRONG FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS TROUGH DYNAMICS LAGS
WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MUCAPE MAXIMIZED AROUND 400 TO 500 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT...COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE LATER FROPA WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST(I-95 CORRIDOR) ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING
WITH BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
AT OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULTING A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY
GUSTINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT DRIER
COLD AIR INTO THE AREA...THOUGH CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID
50S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SREF IS THE
SLOWEST BUT STILL HAS THE FRONT THROUGH BY NOON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SETTING UP A CAD WEDGE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD THE FROPA BE A BIT SLOWER. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL IMPACT
WEATHER IN CENTRAL NC DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN WITH THE CAD SETTING UP...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT...MAINLY
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...THUS THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY THOUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THEN
SLIDE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CAVEAT BEING
A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ITS INTERACTION
WITH THE COASTAL LOW. ALOFT...THE SHORTWAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT EXTENDS INTO
CENTRAL NC AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCATION...INTENSITY...
AND DURATION WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW THE COASTAL LOW PROGRESSES. FOR
NOW...EXPECT WET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS ARE STILL
CHALLENGING...BUT EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...STUBBORN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT APPEARS TO LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE TRIANGLE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY AROUND KRDU DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN EVENTUALLY DIMINISHES AS
GUIDANCE PERSISTENTLY SUGGESTS...ATTENTION IS THEN DRAWN TO AMOUNT
AND HEIGHT OF CLOUD COVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN A
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED ALTHOUGH IT
HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND MOSTLY NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE AND TOWARD
INTERSTATE 95. WHATEVER IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD AMOUNT AND HEIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD RETURN TO IFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF LIFR
OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES TOWARD THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. DURING
SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS CEILINGS IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MOSTLY MVFR BY THE END OF THE
18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY.
VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS BECOME WIDESPREAD VFR SUNDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY ACCORDING TO
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE MORE AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ONCE
AGAIN...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND AREAS OF SUB-VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
935 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND WILL
STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM FRIDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A MODEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER RIDGE OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODEST
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST
OFFSHORE...WITH ANY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THAT FLOW FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD
KCLT AND THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT AS OF THIS WRITING...AND IF RAP AND
BUFR SOUNDINGS VERIFY ALONG WITH HRRR WRF GUIDANCE...THIS RAIN
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. STILL...THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH
PROGRESS EAST IN SPACE AND INTENSITY THAT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON IS PRUDENT. CONSIDERED A FEW SPRINKLES INTO THE TRIAD BUT
THE RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A MORE EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE AREA OF
RAIN AND EVEN THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TRIAD DRY.
CLOUDS ARE ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST...WITH ALREADY SOME SMALL
CLEAR PATCHES IN THE AREA. MORE TEXTURED CLOUDS WITH THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT ANY CLEARING FOR A WHILE IN THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT...AND THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MORE NUMEROUS BREAKS OCCURRING BETWEEN
ABOUT 19Z AND 21Z. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
AND CLOUD TRENDS THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW
BREAKS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN SPACE AND TIME LIKELY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE....AND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW...EVEN WITH AN HOUR
OR TWO OF BREAKS TEMPERATURES COULD RISE QUICKLY AND DID NOT CHANGES
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOW
DOWN AS IT ADVANCES EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AWAITING A SECONDARY POSITIVE-TILTED
TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BEFORE IT FINALLY CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN/INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEE SOME
SPOTTY PRE-FRONTAL WAA SHOWERS SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN-CENTRAL
PIEDMONT LATE BY DAYBREAK. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
...ANOTHER WET AND DREARY SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE BAND THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z-
18Z IN THE WEST TO 00 TO 03Z IN THE EAST.
STRONG FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS TROUGH DYNAMICS LAGS
WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MUCAPE MAXIMIZED AROUND 400 TO 500 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT...COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE LATER FROPA WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST(I-95 CORRIDOR) ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING
WITH BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
AT OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULTING A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY
GUSTINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT DRIER
COLD AIR INTO THE AREA...THOUGH CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID
50S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SREF IS THE
SLOWEST BUT STILL HAS THE FRONT THROUGH BY NOON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SETTING UP A CAD WEDGE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD THE FROPA BE A BIT SLOWER. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL IMPACT
WEATHER IN CENTRAL NC DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN WITH THE CAD SETTING UP...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT...MAINLY
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...THUS THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY THOUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THEN
SLIDE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CAVEAT BEING
A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ITS INTERACTION
WITH THE COASTAL LOW. ALOFT...THE SHORTWAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT EXTENDS INTO
CENTRAL NC AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCATION...INTENSITY...
AND DURATION WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW THE COASTAL LOW PROGRESSES. FOR
NOW...EXPECT WET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS ARE STILL
CHALLENGING...BUT EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM FRIDAY...
LATEST NAM-BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILING PRODUCTS SUGGEST LIFR TO
MVFR STRATUS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OWING TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 925MB(2.5KFT). IN FACT IT`S QUITE
POSSIBLE...THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD HOLD ON WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CEILINGS
LIFTING TO VFR AT KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI AOA 18Z...WHILE KEEPING
KGSO AND KINT AT MVFR.
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RESULT IN A STEADY SWLY SFC FLOW...PERIODICALLY GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 15 KTS...MAINLY FROM RDU EASTWARD.
WIDESPREAD LIFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT. A STEADY 5 TO 7KT SWLY BREEZE SHOULD DETER FOG...WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED. WAA PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...SFC COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT BAND/LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF/CBL
NEAR TERM...DJF/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
635 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL STALL OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE NEWD
INTO ONTARIO. THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT
ADVANCES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON...AWAITING A SECONDARY POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH
EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL US BEFORE IT FINALLY CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION CENTERED AROUND
925MB...MORNING STRATUS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO MIX OUT. HOWEVER ONCE
IT DOES...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROPEL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS CENTRAL
NC...NEARING 80 DEGREES IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEES SOME
SPOTTY PRE-FRONTAL WAA SHOWERS SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN-CENTRAL PIEDMONT
LATE BY DAYBREAK. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
...ANOTHER WET AND DREARY SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE BAND THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z-
18Z IN THE WEST TO 00 TO 03Z IN THE EAST.
STRONG FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS TROUGH DYNAMICS LAGS
WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MUCAPE MAXIMIZED AROUND 400 TO 500 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT...COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE LATER FROPA WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST(I-95 CORRIDOR) ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING
WITH BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
AT OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULTING A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY
GUSTINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT DRIER
COLD AIR INTO THE AREA...THOUGH CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID
50S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SREF IS THE
SLOWEST BUT STILL HAS THE FRONT THROUGH BY NOON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SETTING UP A CAD WEDGE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD THE FROPA BE A BIT SLOWER. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL IMPACT
WEATHER IN CENTRAL NC DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN WITH THE CAD SETTING UP...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT...MAINLY
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...THUS THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY THOUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THEN
SLIDE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CAVEAT BEING
A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ITS INTERACTION
WITH THE COASTAL LOW. ALOFT...THE SHORTWAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT EXTENDS INTO
CENTRAL NC AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCATION...INTENSITY...
AND DURATION WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW THE COASTAL LOW PROGRESSES. FOR
NOW...EXPECT WET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS ARE STILL
CHALLENGING...BUT EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM FRIDAY...
LATEST NAM-BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILING PRODUCTS SUGGEST LIFR TO
MVFR STRATUS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OWING TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 925MB(2.5KFT). IN FACT IT`S QUITE
POSSIBLE...THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD HOLD ON WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CEILINGS
LIFTING TO VFR AT KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI AOA 18Z...WHILE KEEPING
KGSO AND KINT AT MVFR.
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RESULT IN A STEADY SWLY SFC FLOW...PERIODICALLY GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 15 KTS...MAINLY FROM RDU EASTWARD.
WIDESPREAD LIFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT. A STEADY 5 TO 7KT SWLY BREEZE SHOULD DETER FOG...WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED. WAA PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...SFC COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT BAND/LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL STALL OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE NEWD
INTO ONTARIO. THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT
ADVANCES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON...AWAITING A SECONDARY POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH
EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL US BEFORE IT FINALLY CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION CENTERED AROUND
925MB...MORNING STRATUS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO MIX OUT. HOWEVER ONCE
IT DOES...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROPEL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS CENTRAL
NC...NEARING 80 DEGREES IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEES SOME
SPOTTY PRE-FRONTAL WAA SHOWERS SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN-CENTRAL PIEDMONT
LATE BY DAYBREAK. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
...ANOTHER WET AND DREARY SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE BAND THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z-
18Z IN THE WEST TO 00 TO 03Z IN THE EAST.
STRONG FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS TROUGH DYNAMICS LAGS
WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MUCAPE MAXIMIZED AROUND 400 TO 500 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT...COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE LATER FROPA WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST(I-95 CORRIDOR) ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING
WITH BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
AT OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULTING A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY
GUSTINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT DRIER
COLD AIR INTO THE AREA...THOUGH CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID
50S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SREF IS THE
SLOWEST BUT STILL HAS THE FRONT THROUGH BY NOON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SETTING UP A CAD WEDGE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD THE FROPA BE A BIT SLOWER. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL IMPACT
WEATHER IN CENTRAL NC DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN WITH THE CAD SETTING UP...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT...MAINLY
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...THUS THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY THOUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THEN
SLIDE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CAVEAT BEING
A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ITS INTERACTION
WITH THE COASTAL LOW. ALOFT...THE SHORTWAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT EXTENDS INTO
CENTRAL NC AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCATION...INTENSITY...
AND DURATION WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW THE COASTAL LOW PROGRESSES. FOR
NOW...EXPECT WET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS ARE STILL
CHALLENGING...BUT EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM FRIDAY...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND A MIXTURE OF FOG AND
STRATUS IN THE EAST. IN FACT...VISBYS HAVE ACTUALLY IMPROVED OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING THE DENSE FOG NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
LATEST NAM-BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILING PRODUCTS SUGGEST MORNING
STRATUS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OWING TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 925MB(2.5KFT). WILL DELAY VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL 17-21Z...EARLIEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RESULT IN A STEADY SWLY SFC FLOW...PERIODICALLY GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 15 KTS...MAINLY FROM RDU EASTWARD.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FRIDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WAA PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...SFC COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT BAND/LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
304 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AND WILL STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 845 PM THURSDAY...
SATELLITE AND METARS STILL INDICATING STRATUS COVERING A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC (PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES)...WITH CIGS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 1500 FT AGL. MEANWHILE...
OBS SHOW NEARLY SATURATED SFC AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC ALONG
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY WHERE BREAKS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS ARE LOCATED (SUCH AS AREAS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE TRIANGLE). LATEST HRR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH GREATER COVERAGE AND AREAS OF FOG SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE TRIANGLE. AS SUCH...THE MAIN UPDATE TO TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL
BE TO ADD FOG INTO OUR WEATHER GRID. OTHERWISE...BASED ON CURRENT
DEW POINTS AND EXPECTED FOG AND CLOUDS...TEMPS THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WILL FALL ONLY A COUPLE MORE DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW (LOWS
FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH).
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISPERSE MORE QUICKLY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHICH WILL BE EDGING EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. ITS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW
AS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE DRIVING THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH...SHEARING
THE FRONT AND ALIGNING IT IN A BACKDOOR-ISH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW
PRODUCES ~10 METERS RISE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS. THIS CORRESPONDS TO
A 2-3 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPS...SUPPORTING A MAX TEMP FORECAST OF 75
WEST TO 80 EAST.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE IN CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AWAITING A
PUSH FROM A SECOND STRONGER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS SPREAD EAST
INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE EVEN MILDER...IN THE MID 60S.
SATURDAY...COMING SOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SREF IS THE
SLOWEST BUT STILL HAS THE FRONT THROUGH BY NOON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SETTING UP A CAD WEDGE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD THE FROPA BE A BIT SLOWER. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL IMPACT
WEATHER IN CENTRAL NC DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN WITH THE CAD SETTING UP...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT...MAINLY
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...THUS THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY THOUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THEN
SLIDE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CAVEAT BEING
A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ITS INTERACTION
WITH THE COASTAL LOW. ALOFT...THE SHORTWAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT EXTENDS INTO
CENTRAL NC AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCATION...INTENSITY...
AND DURATION WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW THE COASTAL LOW PROGRESSES. FOR
NOW...EXPECT WET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS ARE STILL
CHALLENGING...BUT EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM FRIDAY...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND A MIXTURE OF FOG AND
STRATUS IN THE EAST. IN FACT...VISBYS HAVE ACTUALLY IMPROVED OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING THE DENSE FOG NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
LATEST NAM-BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILING PRODUCTS SUGGEST MORNING
STRATUS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OWING TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 925MB(2.5KFT). WILL DELAY VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL 17-21Z...EARLIEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RESULT IN A STEADY SWLY SFC FLOW...PERIODICALLY GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 15 KTS...MAINLY FROM RDU EASTWARD.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FRIDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WAA PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...SFC COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT BAND/LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1250 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AND WILL STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 845 PM THURSDAY...
SATELLITE AND METARS STILL INDICATING STRATUS COVERING A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC (PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES)...WITH CIGS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 1500 FT AGL. MEANWHILE...
OBS SHOW NEARLY SATURATED SFC AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC ALONG
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY WHERE BREAKS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS ARE LOCATED (SUCH AS AREAS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE TRIANGLE). LATEST HRR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH GREATER COVERAGE AND AREAS OF FOG SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE TRIANGLE. AS SUCH...THE MAIN UPDATE TO TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL
BE TO ADD FOG INTO OUR WEATHER GRID. OTHERWISE...BASED ON CURRENT
DEW POINTS AND EXPECTED FOG AND CLOUDS...TEMPS THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WILL FALL ONLY A COUPLE MORE DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW (LOWS
FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH).
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISPERSE MORE QUICKLY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHICH WILL BE EDGING EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. ITS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW
AS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE DRIVING THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH...SHEARING
THE FRONT AND ALIGNING IT IN A BACKDOOR-ISH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW
PRODUCES ~10 METERS RISE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS. THIS CORRESPONDS TO
A 2-3 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPS...SUPPORTING A MAX TEMP FORECAST OF 75
WEST TO 80 EAST.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE IN CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AWAITING A
PUSH FROM A SECOND STRONGER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS SPREAD EAST
INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE EVEN MILDER...IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY BISECTING THE COUNTRY... WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN SINK SOUTH INTO SC/GA SATURDAY
NIGHT....WITH AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS THAT SHOULD BECOME
REINVIGORATED BY THE APPROACH OF THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 180KT JET OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE FROPA GIVEN PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL INTO EASTERN CANADA
AND THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.
THE NAM IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WHICH SHOW THE
FRONT SURGING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. PREFRONTAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS NEAR 80 IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST...THOUGH WITH TIME ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME
MORE ELEVATED AS THE FRONT UNDERCUTS THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS. WILL
ADD SOME THUNDER TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WHERE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...AND ANY THREAT OF STRONG STORMS GIVEN
MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 KTS...WOULD BE GREATEST.
TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SATURDAY AS DECENT WARMING IS POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND
ANAFRONTAL PRECIP WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO START TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
YIELDS 66-80...WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE POSSIBLE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
FRONT DEPICTED IN THE NAM. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO MORE STRATIFORM AND
COMES TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS DROPS OFF PRETTY DRAMATICALLY FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A WETTER AND COOLER
PERIOD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT ENERGY ON THE TAIL END OF THIS WEEKENDS SHORTWAVE WILL
BREAK OFF AND THEN MAKE A SLOW JAUNT NORTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LIFTS IT
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS A MORE OPEN WAVE.
GIVEN THAT THE UPPER WAVE IS SO FAR TO THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
NOT BE VERY STRONG...SO WOULD LEAN MORE TO THE GFS...WITH LIGHTER
AND MORE BRIEF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EITHER WAY...CAD SHOULD
DEVELOP AND TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE
FINALLY BREAK BACK OUT LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM FRIDAY...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND A MIXTURE OF FOG AND
STRATUS IN THE EAST. IN FACT...VISBYS HAVE ACTUALLY IMPROVED OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING THE DENSE FOG NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
LATEST NAM-BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILING PRODUCTS SUGGEST MORNING
STRATUS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OWING TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 925MB(2.5KFT). WILL DELAY VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL 17-21Z...EARLIEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RESULT IN A STEADY SWLY SFC FLOW...PERIODICALLY GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 15 KTS...MAINLY FROM RDU EASTWARD.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FRIDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WAA PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...SFC COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT BAND/LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
249 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SWINGING THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BISMARCK AND MINOT
RADARS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS CENTRAL THAT SHOULD END THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL CLOUD FORECAST SHOWS THE CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREES THIS EVENING AS H850 WARM ADVECTION ERODES
WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS. SATURDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
AFTER MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXPECT
A COOLING TREND WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING SYSTEMS RESIDING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
POTENTIALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES.
UPPER RIDGE/HEIGHTS FLATTEN SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM
WEST COAST TROUGH THAT SPLITS AS IT CROSSES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/LOWER THICKNESSES COMMENCE MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM PASSING EITHER
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA PER GFS...OR EVEN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS
PER ECMWF. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST AN H85 COLD POCKET OF -4C BEING DRAWN
INTO AND HOVERING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD INITIALLY SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGING TO
SNOW TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GFS CONTINUES WITH A MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION FIELD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA GIVEN THE OVERALL NORTHERN
TRAJECTORY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION FIELD ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN BORDER AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...THEN THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING
ANALYSIS IN TERMS OF SNOW SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES
FROM DICKINSON TO BISMARCK AND EAST INTO JAMESTOWN...FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW/MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT PER GFS AND ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
LOW VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATO CU WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
948 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE LIGHT FLURRIES/SPRINKLES VS SHOWERS...WITH
P-TYPE MOSTLY SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND RAIN (OR SNOW BECOMING
RAIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR) WITHIN AND EAST OF THE VALLEY.
TEMPS ARE IN THE 34 TO 37 RANGE AND ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS SHOULD
IMMEDIATELY MELT...AS SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF ACCUMULATION.
FOR AFTN POPS...DID NOT LIKE THE 12Z NAM (TOO MOIST) NOR RAP (TOO
DRY) AS WE DO SEE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA ON CANADIAN
RADAR. WILL GO GENERAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BY
NOONTIME...AS WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. AGAIN...P-TYPE ON EASTERN SIDE
SHOULD GO TO ALL RAIN SHORTLY PER MORNING BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AND
TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND PLENTY OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTH IN THE
MORNING AND ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COLD BE SOME SNOW
FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES...BUT MAINLY EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE NW...WITH ABOUT
25-30KT TO MIX. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
FOR TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME EVENING SNOW SHOWERS IN NW
MN...OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING. IT WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS
INTO THE 20S.
ON SATURDAY...WAA BEGINS AT ALL LEVELS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
FOR SAT NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER
THAN FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.
ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO AROUND +10C...SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AT LEAST IN
THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS NORTH AND
EAST...ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.
FOR MON THRU THU...PERIOD BEGINS WITH MORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW
FOLLOWED BY CONVERGING ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THESE GUIDANCE GENERATE A CLOSED LOW WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN OR NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS (SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
TWO). THE SEEMINGLY SPURIOUS DGEX DEPICTS A MORE DIFFUSE AND COL
TYPE UPPER PATTERN AND HAS BEEN DISMISSED FOR THIS ANALYSIS. 850MB
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 ON THE POSITIVE SIDE
OFFERING MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S STARTING OUT DROPPING
CLOSER TO AVERAGE MID AND LATE WEEK. THIS REGIME AND TIME OF YEAR
LENDS ITSELF TO MIXED PCPN OR SNOW EVENING THROUGH MORNING PERIODS
WITH MAINLY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25KT TODAY ACROSS ALL SITES
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR RANGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. BETTER
THAN 150 METER HEIGHT FALLS WAS OVER NORTHEAST MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND BETTER THAN 250 METER HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST FOR FRI OVER EASTERN
CANADA WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS CLOUDY AND TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH THIS
EVENING. AREA SHOULD REMAINS CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SOME BREAKS
IN THE SOUTH. WILL INCREASE TEMPS NORTH AND DECREASE SOME SOUTH.
TWEAKED POPS TO MATCH RADAR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO HAS DEEPENED
ABOUT 10 MB IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BOMB OUT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC. RAP MODEL SOUNDING INDICATED LOWER LAYER TO BECOME
MORE ADIABATIC OVERNIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AROUND 900 HPA. WINDS
AROUND 900 HPA DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN 25
TO 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND ABOUT 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
INCREASE WINDS FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
DEFORMATION ZONE BAND OF PRECIP IS WEAKENING AND MOVING OFF TO THE
E/NE...AS EXPECTED. ROADS REMAIN WET ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS HAVE
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE WHAT
OCCURS CLOSER TO SUNSET (IF SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE ON THE
ROADS)...ALTHOUGH PRECIP RATES SHOULD BE WAY DOWN BY THEN WITH
ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
THE NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL PASS JUST TO THE NW OF
BAUDETTE BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES NOT
SURE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET RID OF CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONTINUED TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FA (NEAR THE SD
BORDER)...ALTHOUGH TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES. STRONGEST FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN
JUST NE OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWER END
POPS FOR THE BAUDETTE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH
WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMER EACH DAY...WITH
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 20S SAT MORNING (IF WE CAN CLEAR).
MONDAY-THURSDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH SEASONAL DAYTIME
HIGHS..ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER. A SW FLOW PATTERN SETS UP BY TUESDAY...AND A SFC LOW
EJECTS OUT OF THE WY ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...BRINING
A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST
BELOW FREEZING...SO RAIN DURING THE DAY WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT IS POSSIBLE BUT TOO FAR OUT FOR THOSE DETAILS AT THIS POINT.
GROUND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND WITHOUT A
DECENT BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP...ANY SNOW MID NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AND SHORT LIVED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS
DOES SHOW A DECENT DEFORMATION ZONES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
MOSTLY IFR CIGS WERE OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER SOME CIGS
WERE 5 HUNDRED FT OR LESS. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE ND SIDE OF
THE RED RIVER WITH CIGS FROM 14 TO 21 HUNDRED FT. VFR CIGS WERE OVER
SOUTHWEST ND BUT DO NOT APPEAR TO MOVING ANY FARTHER EAST ON LATEST
SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS. WILL KEEP MOSTLY IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
844 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK SYSTEM PASSES
ON TUESDAY WITH A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND HI-RES NAM THROUGH THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINING A BAND OF SHOWERS. MODELS DO VARY A BIT ON
PROGRESS OF THIS BAND TONIGHT AND WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE FRONT.
MODELS KEEP SOME MID LEVEL LIFT WHILE SOME LAYERS BELOW DRY
CONSIDERABLY. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRIER AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...
AND THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOUNDINGS INDICATES AIRMASS ACROSS REGION
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN ON MONDAY...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF
INCREASING POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ERODES AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES UP FROM THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS REMAINS BULLISH WITH A
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE EURO
RESTRAINS THE SAME FRONT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. A TAD BIT DIFFICULT
TO GENERATE A GOOD DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT
OVERALL GENERALIZED POPS OVER A PERIOD TO INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. OVERALL JET REMAINS RATHER
ZONAL WHICH LENDS EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS OH AND KY INTO WESTERN WV THIS
MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING. RESTRICTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CAN BE EXPECTED. DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SUCH AS EKN REMAIN
DECOUPLED THIS MORNING WITH 25 TO 30 KT WIND JUST OFF OF THE
SURFACE...CREATING STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN BE CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS. SOME
CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN...A STRATUS DECK MAY REFORM ON THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE DUE TO STRATUS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1046 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING
FAIR WEATHER. A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH COULD
PRODUCE SOME RAIN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
ON SUNDAY BUT WILL SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH MID WEEK...UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE THIN ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE LOW
CLOUDS/STRATOCU DEVELOP OVER NW PA AS COLDER NWRLY WINDS FLOW
ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
RECENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE. ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS...BUT A SPRINKLE OF
TWO IS POSSIBLE POST MIDNIGHT. THE TEMPS DO GET COLD ENOUGH IN
THE ELEVATIONS THAT SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS THE GROUND TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. CENTER OF THE
HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY EVENING. MAXES WILL HOLD
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT IS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING. THE CLEAR SKY AND CALM AIR SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE 8H TEMPS DO STEADILY
RISE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AND ALL SUN NIGHT. BUT THE
SFC WILL BE DECOUPLED FROM THIS WARMING ALOFT. THUS...TEMPS WILL
DROP TO 28-32F OVER THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES HOLDS ON INTO MONDAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY STRENGTHENS AS IT SLIDES UP THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THESE WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHRA ACROSS
THE REGION TUES.
THEN A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR
MIDWEEK...AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORGANIZING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
HEADING INTO WED...TEMPS WILL MODERATE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO
AROUND +10C WED INTO THU AS WAA KICKS IN ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. LOWS WED NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MINS IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY...BEFORE TIGHTENING UP FURTHER AS IT LIFTS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY. FOR US...MODELS LOOK TO BRING AN
OCCLUDING FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF
THAT...SHOWERS POSS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WED NIGHT AS LLJET
SWINGS THROUGH. WITH THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS FRI INTO SAT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY BEHIND A SECOND SHORTWAVE AS TROUGH
SLOWLY ROLLS THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR BLANKETS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL PENN AIRSPACE EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS DECK ACROSS THE SE
HALF OF PENN AND A SCATTERING OF STRATOCU CLOUDS BELOW.
22Z HRRR AND IR SATL LOOP SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED AND RATHER SHARP
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH DROPPING SE FROM THE LOWER GLAKES. THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE UPWARD MOTION IN THE ATMOS AND
SPREAD A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR CIGS /WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS POSS/ ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS OF PENN /AND INVOF KBFD/ THROUGH 06Z.
A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS COULD
MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KIPT AND KUNV FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE
OF MIDNIGHT. A 20 TO 30 DEG VEERING OF THE WIND WILL OCCUR FOR UP
TO SVRL HOURS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE...AND COULD
GUST BETWEEN 15-18 KTS.
THE WIND WILL SLOW DOWN AOB 10Z SUNDAY AS A BIG SFC HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KILL THE CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR
HOLDING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY...MAINLY W.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THURS...SHRA/LOWERED CIGS LIKELY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE SOME RAIN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH MID
WEEK...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING A
RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEARING COMMENCING FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH CLOUDS SLIP OFF TO
THE EAST. HIGHLY ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH WILL CHARGE W-E ACROSS THE
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING VERY FAST AND SHOULD
NOT AFFECT THE AREA FOR VERY LONG AT ALL. BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY
HELP TO INCREASE LIFT OVER THE NRN MTNS AND LEAD TO SCATTERED...LIGHT
SHOWERS OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE TEMPS DO GET COLD
ENOUGH IN THE ELEVATIONS THAT SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN...BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE GROUND TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY EVENING. MAXES WILL HOLD
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT IS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING. THE CLEAR SKY AND CALM AIR SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE 8H TEMPS DO STEADILY
RISE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AND ALL SUN NIGHT. BUT THE
SFC WILL BE DECOUPLED FROM THIS WARMING ALOFT. THUS...TEMPS WILL
DROP TO 28-32F OVER THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES HOLDS ON INTO MONDAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY STRENGTHENS AS IT SLIDES UP THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THESE WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHRA ACROSS
THE REGION TUES.
THEN A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR
MIDWEEK...AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORGANIZING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
HEADING INTO WED...TEMPS WILL MODERATE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO
AROUND +10C WED INTO THU AS WAA KICKS IN ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. LOWS WED NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MINS IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY...BEFORE TIGHTENING UP FURTHER AS IT LIFTS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY. FOR US...MODELS LOOK TO BRING AN
OCCLUDING FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF
THAT...SHOWERS POSS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WED NIGHT AS LLJET
SWINGS THROUGH. WITH THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS FRI INTO SAT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY BEHIND A SECOND SHORTWAVE AS TROUGH
SLOWLY ROLLS THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR BLANKETS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL PENN AIRSPACE EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS DECK ACROSS THE SE
HALF OF PENN AND A SCATTERING OF STRATOCU CLOUDS BELOW.
22Z HRRR AND IR SATL LOOP SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED AND RATHER SHARP
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH DROPPING SE FROM THE LOWER GLAKES. THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE UPWARD MOTION IN THE ATMOS AND
SPREAD A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR CIGS /WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS POSS/ ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS OF PENN /AND INVOF KBFD/ THROUGH 06Z.
A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS COULD
MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KIPT AND KUNV FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE
OF MIDNIGHT. A 20 TO 30 DEG VEERING OF THE WIND WILL OCCUR FOR UP
TO SVRL HOURS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE...AND COULD
GUST BETWEEN 15-18 KTS.
THE WIND WILL SLOW DOWN AOB 10Z SUNDAY AS A BIG SFC HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KILL THE CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR
HOLDING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY...MAINLY W.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THURS...SHRA/LOWERED CIGS LIKELY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
709 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE SOME RAIN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH MID
WEEK...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING A
RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SPRINKLES OVER THE SE PUSHING TO THE EAST AS EXPECTED. CLEARING
SHOULD ENSUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SE AS THE HIGH CLOUDS SLIP
OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHLY ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH WILL CHARGE W-E
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING VERY FAST
AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE AREA FOR VERY LONG AT ALL. THIS FEATURE
WILL CERTAINLY HELP TO INCREASE LIFT OVER THE NRN MTNS AND LEAD TO
SHOWERS OCCURRING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE TEMPS DO GET COLD ENOUGH
IN THE ELEVATIONS THAT SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN...BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE GROUND TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT SHOULD
BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY EVENING. MAXES WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT IS OVERHEAD
SUNDAY MORNING. THE CLEAR SKY AND CALM AIR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOW GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE 8H TEMPS DO STEADILY RISE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AND ALL SUN NIGHT. BUT THE SFC
WILL BE DECOUPLED FROM THIS WARMING ALOFT. THUS...TEMPS WILL DROP
TO 28-32F OVER THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES HOLDS ON INTO MONDAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY STRENGTHENS AS IT SLIDES UP THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THESE WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHRA ACROSS
THE REGION TUES.
THEN A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR
MIDWEEK...AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORGANIZING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
HEADING INTO WED...TEMPS WILL MODERATE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO
AROUND +10C WED INTO THU AS WAA KICKS IN ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. LOWS WED NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MINS IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY...BEFORE TIGHTENING UP FURTHER AS IT LIFTS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY. FOR US...MODELS LOOK TO BRING AN
OCCLUDING FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF
THAT...SHOWERS POSS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WED NIGHT AS LLJET
SWINGS THROUGH. WITH THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS FRI INTO SAT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY BEHIND A SECOND SHORTWAVE AS TROUGH
SLOWLY ROLLS THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR BLANKETS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL PENN AIRSPACE EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS DECK ACROSS THE SE
HALF OF PENN AND A SCATTERING OF STRATOCU CLOUDS BELOW.
22Z HRRR AND IR SATL LOOP SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED AND RATHER SHARP
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH DROPPING SE FROM THE LOWER GLAKES. THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE UPWARD MOTION IN THE ATMOS AND
SPREAD A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR CIGS /WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS POSS/ ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS OF PENN /AND INVOF KBFD/ THROUGH 06Z.
A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS COULD
MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KIPT AND KUNV FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE
OF MIDNIGHT. A 20 TO 30 DEG VEERING OF THE WIND WILL OCCUR FOR UP
TO SVRL HOURS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE...AND COULD
GUST BETWEEN 15-18 KTS.
THE WIND WILL SLOW DOWN AOB 10Z SUNDAY AS A BIG SFC HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KILL THE CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR
HOLDING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY...MAINLY W.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THURS...SHRA/LOWERED CIGS LIKELY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ADDED IN MENTION OF SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE PICKING UP VERY
LIGHT PRECIP. JUST TRACE AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO KEEP WINDS BREEZY THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS
STRONGER NORTH WIND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT. DID
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AS WELL.
LOOK FOR THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE
LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS UNDER THE
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER CLOSE TO 2000 FT ALONG I-35 THIS
EVENING WHILE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO THE
LOW CIGS COULD POSSIBLY DROP BELOW 1500 FT OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE
DRYING LAYER DEEPENS AND LIFTS OR REMOVES THE LOWER CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO SPILL IN FROM THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH SHRA POSSIBLY MOVING BACK INTO THE DRT VCNTY
THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS ARE DOWN WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT
A PATTERN MATCH WITH THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND NE INTO THE SAT AREA LATE TONIGHT. THUS CIG HEIGHTS IN THIS
ISENTROPIC LIFTING PATTERN ARE IN POOR CONFIDENCE. TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIODS...WILL DEFER TO THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS WHICH
SHOWS BETTER INITIAL CONDITIONS VERSUS THE NAM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AT
THE PRESENT TIME. THIS RAIN HAS BEEN DUE TO PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL LAYER AS SOUTH WINDS ON THE 300K THETA
SURFACE LIFTED WARM MOIST AIR TO THE POINT OF PRECIPITATING. THE
SOUTH WINDS HAVE BECOME EAST-NORTH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INSTEAD
OF UPGLIDE...THE WIND IS NOW FLOWING PARALLEL TO THE CONSTANT
PRESSURE LINES EQUATING TO NO LIFT. HOWEVER...THE ISOBARS ON THE
300K SURFACE BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTH SOUTH ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE AND WEAK UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THEREFORE...POPS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE MAINLY CONCENTRATED TO THIS AREA.
INSTABILITY LEVELS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST WITH JUST RAIN MENTIONED. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS
TOMORROW REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS ALL LIFT COMES TO AN END.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BY MONDAY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR NORTHERLY FLOW BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A COUPLE OF SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME...BUT CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT THE SAME TIME A COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AS TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
WHERE SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR OUR AREA...ONLY EXPECT A SOMEWHAT THIN FORCED LINE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT MAY BE A BIT TOO EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS REGARDING
RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN LESS THAN AN INCH. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT
LEAVING DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 51 65 50 69 57 / 10 - 0 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 51 66 48 70 55 / 10 - 0 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 53 66 51 71 57 / 10 - 0 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 49 63 49 68 56 / 10 - 0 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 53 64 54 70 58 / 30 20 - 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 49 64 48 69 55 / 10 - 0 - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 52 67 51 72 58 / 20 10 - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 52 65 50 70 57 / 10 - 0 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 53 67 50 72 57 / 10 - 0 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 53 66 52 72 59 / 20 10 0 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 55 68 53 73 59 / 20 10 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
900 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WX AND POPS FOR TONIGHT
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. LOWERED THIS EVENINGS POPS TO 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE W TO 10 PERCENT NE WITH A MENTION OF PATCHY -DZ/BR WITH
THE 10 POP. STILL EXPECT BEST CHC FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE
W DUE TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
NEARING THE AREA...BUT JUST NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH AREAL COVERAGE
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. ALSO CHANGED WORDING FROM SHRA TO -RA FOR
THE W CWA. AS FOR PATCHY DZ/BR ACROSS THE NE...DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DESPITE FCST SOUNDINGS PROGGING A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE. BASED ON MSAS
ANALYSIS/RADAR/OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE
TO THE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...LATEST OBS ARE REPORTING LIGHT FOG AROUND VCT AND
FARTHER NE. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WITH THE
DZ. THE FCST SOUNDING FOR THE NE CWA OVERNIGHT SHOWS A SLIGHT
DRYING AND MODELS PROG DEWPOINTS TO LOWER...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ENOUGH DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE
BEFORE 12Z SUN TO END THE PATCHY DZ/BR. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND THE MENTION OF PATCHY DZ/BR THROUGH EARLY SUN
MORNING. REST OF FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGHER POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE W CWA DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND A WEAK SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA PER WV SATELLITE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER TODAY. RESIDUAL -RA WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF S TX MUCH OF TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCT BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IMPROVING FROM NE TO S AND SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF S TX SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL
TROUGH/LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NE MX COAST AND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE HEADING INTO
TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL OCCUR. DESPITE
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SFC TO H85...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN STILL
REMAINS UNSEASONABLY MOIST /PWAT VALUES THIS MORNING WERE 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/. MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 300K LAYER IS PROG TO OCCUR ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...A MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN COAHUILA MX AND SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING. COMBINATION OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THE DPVA...AND A
H25 JET OVERHEAD...SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THE 18Z NAM...12ZGFS/GEM/TTU
WRF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS OUTPUT WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF AND SOME RUNS OF THE RAP BRING DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FARTHER SOUTH AND THUS KEEP THE CWA MAINLY DRY TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF THE LATTER OCCURRING...HAVE GONE WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN CWA RATHER THAN THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES. NE COUNTIES WILL HAVE LOWEST
POTENTIAL OF SEEING ADDITIONAL PRECIP WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL BE THE WEAKEST. ASIDE FROM PRECIP...STRATUS IS PROG TO
THICKEN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW PEAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM PORT ARANSAS TO SEADRIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD NOT FALL TOO MUCH FROM CURRENT TEMPS...THOUGH IF
ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THEN
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP MAY KNOCK
TEMPS BELOW CURRENTLY FORECAST MINS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN
CWA...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. DESPITE A RATHER POTENT
H5 S/W TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS AND A STRONGER H25 JET NOSING INTO
THE AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PROG TO BE MUCH DRIER TOMORROW AND
THUS ONLY EXPECTING CLOUD COVER FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING MAY TRY TO OCCUR BY LATE IN THE DAY SUN WITH
MAX TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER OR NOT ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT /ESPECIALLY NE
COUNTIES/ BEFORE LLVL MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE ECMWF/GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WL ENTER THE WEST COAST BY
MONDAY AND THE SWRN CONUS TUESDAY...THEN ACRS TEXAS/SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA. EXPECT
ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE DRG THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM. GFS DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS PWAT
VALUES OVER THE CWA/MSA TO INCREASE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MSTR/UPPER DYNAMICS/ SFC FRONT WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY. DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS THE FOREGOING UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ANTICIPATED AFTER FROPA OVER THE MSA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A COASTAL
TROUGH FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC PLACES THE
CWA/MSA NEAR THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. FURTHER...THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC)
INCREASES MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WL FCST ISOLD
SHOWER ACTIVITY (THE GFS DETERMINISTIC MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT
CIN/POSITIVE LI VALUES) FRIDAY/SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY OVER THE
CWA/MSA.
MARINE...STRONG TO VERY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREA BAYS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND NEAR/OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY SUN. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 61 70 58 75 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 57 68 50 73 61 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 57 66 57 74 65 / 30 20 10 10 10
ALICE 60 69 55 76 63 / 20 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 61 69 57 73 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 57 66 55 72 61 / 20 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 62 69 56 75 64 / 20 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 63 70 60 73 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
859 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO KEEP WINDS BREEZY THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS
STRONGER NORTH WIND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT. DID
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AS WELL.
LOOK FOR THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE
LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS UNDER THE
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER CLOSE TO 2000 FT ALONG I-35 THIS
EVENING WHILE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO THE
LOW CIGS COULD POSSIBLY DROP BELOW 1500 FT OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE
DRYING LAYER DEEPENS AND LIFTS OR REMOVES THE LOWER CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO SPILL IN FROM THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH SHRA POSSIBLY MOVING BACK INTO THE DRT VCNTY
THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS ARE DOWN WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT
A PATTERN MATCH WITH THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND NE INTO THE SAT AREA LATE TONIGHT. THUS CIG HEIGHTS IN THIS
ISENTROPIC LIFTING PATTERN ARE IN POOR CONFIDENCE. TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIODS...WILL DEFER TO THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS WHICH
SHOWS BETTER INITIAL CONDITIONS VERSUS THE NAM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AT
THE PRESENT TIME. THIS RAIN HAS BEEN DUE TO PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL LAYER AS SOUTH WINDS ON THE 300K THETA
SURFACE LIFTED WARM MOIST AIR TO THE POINT OF PRECIPITATING. THE
SOUTH WINDS HAVE BECOME EAST-NORTH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INSTEAD
OF UPGLIDE...THE WIND IS NOW FLOWING PARALLEL TO THE CONSTANT
PRESSURE LINES EQUATING TO NO LIFT. HOWEVER...THE ISOBARS ON THE
300K SURFACE BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTH SOUTH ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE AND WEAK UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THEREFORE...POPS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE MAINLY CONCENTRATED TO THIS AREA.
INSTABILITY LEVELS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST WITH JUST RAIN MENTIONED. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS
TOMORROW REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS ALL LIFT COMES TO AN END.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BY MONDAY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR NORTHERLY FLOW BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A COUPLE OF SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME...BUT CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT THE SAME TIME A COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AS TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
WHERE SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR OUR AREA...ONLY EXPECT A SOMEWHAT THIN FORCED LINE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT MAY BE A BIT TOO EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS REGARDING
RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN LESS THAN AN INCH. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT
LEAVING DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 51 65 50 69 57 / 10 - 0 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 51 66 48 70 55 / 10 - 0 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 53 66 51 71 57 / 10 - 0 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 49 63 49 68 56 / 10 - 0 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 53 64 54 70 58 / 30 20 - 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 49 64 48 69 55 / 10 - 0 - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 52 67 51 72 58 / 20 10 - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 52 65 50 70 57 / 10 - 0 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 53 67 50 72 57 / 10 - 0 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 53 66 52 72 59 / 20 10 0 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 55 68 53 73 59 / 20 10 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
736 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...LATEST OBS ARE REPORTING LIGHT FOG AROUND VCT AND
FARTHER NE. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WITH THE
DZ. THE FCST SOUNDING FOR THE NE CWA OVERNIGHT SHOWS A SLIGHT
DRYING AND MODELS PROG DEWPOINTS TO LOWER...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ENOUGH DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE
BEFORE 12Z SUN TO END THE PATCHY DZ/BR. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND THE MENTION OF PATCHY DZ/BR THROUGH EARLY SUN
MORNING. REST OF FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGHER POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE W CWA DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND A WEAK SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA PER WV SATELLITE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER TODAY. RESIDUAL -RA WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF S TX MUCH OF TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCT BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IMPROVING FROM NE TO S AND SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF S TX SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL
TROUGH/LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NE MX COAST AND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE HEADING INTO
TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL OCCUR. DESPITE
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SFC TO H85...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN STILL
REMAINS UNSEASONABLY MOIST /PWAT VALUES THIS MORNING WERE 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/. MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 300K LAYER IS PROG TO OCCUR ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...A MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN COAHUILA MX AND SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING. COMBINATION OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THE DPVA...AND A
H25 JET OVERHEAD...SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THE 18Z NAM...12ZGFS/GEM/TTU
WRF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS OUTPUT WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF AND SOME RUNS OF THE RAP BRING DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FARTHER SOUTH AND THUS KEEP THE CWA MAINLY DRY TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF THE LATTER OCCURRING...HAVE GONE WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN CWA RATHER THAN THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES. NE COUNTIES WILL HAVE LOWEST
POTENTIAL OF SEEING ADDITIONAL PRECIP WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL BE THE WEAKEST. ASIDE FROM PRECIP...STRATUS IS PROG TO
THICKEN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW PEAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM PORT ARANSAS TO SEADRIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD NOT FALL TOO MUCH FROM CURRENT TEMPS...THOUGH IF
ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THEN
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP MAY KNOCK
TEMPS BELOW CURRENTLY FORECAST MINS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN
CWA...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. DESPITE A RATHER POTENT
H5 S/W TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS AND A STRONGER H25 JET NOSING INTO
THE AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PROG TO BE MUCH DRIER TOMORROW AND
THUS ONLY EXPECTING CLOUD COVER FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING MAY TRY TO OCCUR BY LATE IN THE DAY SUN WITH
MAX TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER OR NOT ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT /ESPECIALLY NE
COUNTIES/ BEFORE LLVL MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE ECMWF/GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WL ENTER THE WEST COAST BY
MONDAY AND THE SWRN CONUS TUESDAY...THEN ACRS TEXAS/SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA. EXPECT
ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE DRG THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM. GFS DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS PWAT
VALUES OVER THE CWA/MSA TO INCREASE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MSTR/UPPER DYNAMICS/ SFC FRONT WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY. DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS THE FOREGOING UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ANTICIPATED AFTER FROPA OVER THE MSA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A COASTAL
TROUGH FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC PLACES THE
CWA/MSA NEAR THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. FURTHER...THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC)
INCREASES MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WL FCST ISOLD
SHOWER ACTIVITY (THE GFS DETERMINISTIC MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT
CIN/POSITIVE LI VALUES) FRIDAY/SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY OVER THE
CWA/MSA.
MARINE...STRONG TO VERY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREA BAYS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND NEAR/OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY SUN. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 61 70 58 75 66 / 30 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 57 68 50 73 61 / 20 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 57 66 57 74 65 / 50 20 10 10 10
ALICE 60 69 55 76 63 / 40 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 61 69 57 73 67 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 57 66 55 72 61 / 30 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 62 69 56 75 64 / 40 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 63 70 60 73 69 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
544 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER CLOSE TO 2000 FT ALONG I-35 THIS
EVENING WHILE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO THE
LOW CIGS COULD POSSIBLY DROP BELOW 1500 FT OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE
DRYING LAYER DEEPENS AND LIFTS OR REMOVES THE LOWER CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO SPILL IN FROM THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH SHRA POSSIBLY MOVING BACK INTO THE DRT VCNTY
THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS ARE DOWN WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT
A PATTERN MATCH WITH THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND NE INTO THE SAT AREA LATE TONIGHT. THUS CIG HEIGHTS IN THIS
ISENTROPIC LIFTING PATTERN ARE IN POOR CONFIDENCE. TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIODS...WILL DEFER TO THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS WHICH
SHOWS BETTER INITIAL CONDITIONS VERSUS THE NAM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AT
THE PRESENT TIME. THIS RAIN HAS BEEN DUE TO PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL LAYER AS SOUTH WINDS ON THE 300K THETA
SURFACE LIFTED WARM MOIST AIR TO THE POINT OF PRECIPITATING. THE
SOUTH WINDS HAVE BECOME EAST-NORTH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INSTEAD
OF UPGLIDE...THE WIND IS NOW FLOWING PARALLEL TO THE CONSTANT
PRESSURE LINES EQUATING TO NO LIFT. HOWEVER...THE ISOBARS ON THE
300K SURFACE BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTH SOUTH ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE AND WEAK UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THEREFORE...POPS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE MAINLY CONCENTRATED TO THIS AREA.
INSTABILITY LEVELS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST WITH JUST RAIN MENTIONED. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS
TOMORROW REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS ALL LIFT COMES TO AN END.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BY MONDAY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR NORTHERLY FLOW BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A COUPLE OF SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME...BUT CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT THE SAME TIME A COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AS TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
WHERE SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR OUR AREA...ONLY EXPECT A SOMEWHAT THIN FORCED LINE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT MAY BE A BIT TOO EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS REGARDING
RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN LESS THAN AN INCH. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT
LEAVING DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 51 65 50 69 57 / 10 - 0 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 51 66 48 70 55 / 10 - 0 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 53 66 51 71 57 / 10 - 0 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 49 63 49 68 56 / 10 - 0 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 53 64 54 70 58 / 30 20 - 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 49 64 48 69 55 / 10 - 0 - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 52 67 51 72 58 / 20 10 - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 52 65 50 70 57 / 10 - 0 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 53 67 50 72 57 / 10 - 0 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 53 66 52 72 59 / 20 10 0 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 55 68 53 73 59 / 20 10 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
524 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER TODAY. RESIDUAL -RA WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF S TX MUCH OF TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCT BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IMPROVING FROM NE TO S AND SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF S TX SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL
TROUGH/LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NE MX COAST AND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE HEADING INTO
TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL OCCUR. DESPITE
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SFC TO H85...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN STILL
REMAINS UNSEASONABLY MOIST /PWAT VALUES THIS MORNING WERE 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/. MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 300K LAYER IS PROG TO OCCUR ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...A MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN COAHUILA MX AND SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING. COMBINATION OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THE DPVA...AND A
H25 JET OVERHEAD...SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THE 18Z NAM...12ZGFS/GEM/TTU
WRF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS OUTPUT WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF AND SOME RUNS OF THE RAP BRING DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FARTHER SOUTH AND THUS KEEP THE CWA MAINLY DRY TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF THE LATTER OCCURRING...HAVE GONE WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN CWA RATHER THAN THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES. NE COUNTIES WILL HAVE LOWEST
POTENTIAL OF SEEING ADDITIONAL PRECIP WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL BE THE WEAKEST. ASIDE FROM PRECIP...STRATUS IS PROG TO
THICKEN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW PEAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM PORT ARANSAS TO SEADRIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD NOT FALL TOO MUCH FROM CURRENT TEMPS...THOUGH IF
ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THEN
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP MAY KNOCK
TEMPS BELOW CURRENTLY FORECAST MINS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN
CWA...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. DESPITE A RATHER POTENT
H5 S/W TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS AND A STRONGER H25 JET NOSING INTO
THE AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PROG TO BE MUCH DRIER TOMORROW AND
THUS ONLY EXPECTING CLOUD COVER FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING MAY TRY TO OCCUR BY LATE IN THE DAY SUN WITH
MAX TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER OR NOT ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT /ESPECIALLY NE
COUNTIES/ BEFORE LLVL MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE ECMWF/GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WL ENTER THE WEST COAST BY
MONDAY AND THE SWRN CONUS TUESDAY...THEN ACRS TEXAS/SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA. EXPECT
ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE DRG THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM. GFS DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS PWAT
VALUES OVER THE CWA/MSA TO INCREASE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MSTR/UPPER DYNAMICS/ SFC FRONT WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY. DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS THE FOREGOING UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ANTICIPATED AFTER FROPA OVER THE MSA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A COASTAL
TROUGH FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC PLACES THE
CWA/MSA NEAR THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. FURTHER...THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC)
INCREASES MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WL FCST ISOLD
SHOWER ACTIVITY (THE GFS DETERMINISTIC MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT
CIN/POSITIVE LI VALUES) FRIDAY/SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY OVER THE
CWA/MSA.
MARINE...STRONG TO VERY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREA BAYS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND NEAR/OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY SUN. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 61 70 58 75 66 / 30 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 57 68 50 73 61 / 20 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 57 66 57 74 65 / 50 20 10 10 10
ALICE 60 69 55 76 63 / 40 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 61 69 57 73 67 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 57 66 55 72 61 / 30 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 62 69 56 75 64 / 40 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 63 70 60 73 69 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
TE/81...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
343 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
Showers and storms continue to develop across the Northwest Hill
Country this afternoon. Light northeast flow behind a cold front
combining with the cloud cover spreading northward across much of
the area to keep temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s this
afternoon. Models still have differences with regards to the
expected convection tonight, as return flow starts to bring moisture
up and over the cold front. GFS continues to confine much of the
precipitation to the Hill Country and Heartland, while the HRRR and
the TTU WRF show convection farther north and west into San Angelo
and Abilene as well. The WRF and HRRR handled yesterdays lack of
convection better, and were faster to break out the convection
earlier today. Thus, will place the higher PoPs across the
southeast, but will also increase the rain chances a little more
across the Concho Valley and Big Country as well.
A reinforcing surge of cooler and drier air moves into the area
tomorrow, ending the rainfall from north to south as it moves
through. Still cool however, even with a little sun possible in the
afternoon. Highs will remain in the low to mid 60s.
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Isolated light showers along and south of the I-10 corridor end
Saturday night, as dry air associated with surface high pressure
builds in. 700 MB moisture and mid level clouds, however, will
persist Saturday night and Sunday, mainly south of the I-20
corridor. Low level moisture and clouds return Monday as stronger
southeast to south surface winds return Gulf moisture. The next
chance of rain comes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, as an
upper low moves across the Texas Panhandle into the Central
Plains. Unfortunately, most of the lift from this system is north
of West Central Texas. Thus, will keep rainfall chances on the low
side. A cold front associated with the upper low will also move
through Wednesday, pushing low and mid level moisture east, and
ending rain chances. The later half of next week is dry as surface
high pressure dominates.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 49 63 42 62 / 40 20 5 5
San Angelo 51 64 42 62 / 50 30 10 5
Junction 53 62 45 63 / 70 60 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
4
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1154 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS SE TEXAS AT 05Z. A
DRY LINE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY WITH A COLD FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A CONSENSUS OF THE NAM12 AND RAP13
MODELS PUSHES A WIND SHIFT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DRY LINE LATE THIS EVENING...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE KCLL AND
KUTS AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THE MODELS THEN KEEP THE WIND
SHIFT NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND THE KCXO SITE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING IT TOWARD THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING.
IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KCLL AND KUTS
THROUGH 12Z WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO
AIRPORTS THROUGH 15Z. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK
MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS SE TX. NORMAL LOWS ARE IN THE MID
50S THIS TIME OF YEAR AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW THE
UPPER 60S BY MORNING. SFC DEW PTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA AT 800 PM.NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION AT THE
CURRENT TIME AND LOWERED POPS EARLIER IN THE EVENING FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.AT 800 PM...A DRY LINE EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. THE DRY LINE WILL
LOSE IT`S PUNCH AS IT SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT ABUT THE RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INSIOST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF SE TX. 850 MB
MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AND AND 850 JET EXTENDS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE. 300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
DIVERGENCE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS LIES IN A RRQ.
CAN`T SAY I AM TOO IMPRESSED WITH HOW THE NAM AND RAP INITIALIZED
THIS EVENING BUT THE CONSENSUS FROM ALMOST EVERY MODEL IS THAT THE
DRY LINE WILL EDGE EAST AND SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OUT WEST
BETWEEN 06-09Z. WILL LET THE PREVIOUS FCST RIDE WITH 80 POPS AFTER
06Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH. RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING
HIGH ON FRIDAY EITHER BUT SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN LATE FRI NITE INTO
SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 73 61 66 50 / 80 50 60 60 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 80 66 70 54 / 50 50 70 70 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 78 70 72 59 / 20 40 60 70 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1054 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE TERMINALS. THIS WILL BRING NORTH
WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL DROP
CIGS TO MVFR IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. AT DRT VIS HAS DROPPED TO
MVFR AND IT WILL REMAIN THERE UNTIL THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVES IN BY AROUND 09Z. CIGS IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT AUS AND SAT
SHOWERS WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
UPDATE... HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
THUNDERSTORM RISK UNTIL AROUND 9PM WHEN THE DRYLINE AND PSEUDO
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. HAVE DECREASED
RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES THROUGH 8-9PM SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT GIVEN CURRENT AND
EXPECTED TRENDS. NEW ZONES AND FORECAST HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED.
AT THIS PARTICULAR POINT...THE ADVERTISED RAINFALL AMOUNTS GOING
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND GRAPHICS MAY BE TOO HIGH
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR COMPOSITE WITH WEAKENING STORMS ALONG THE
DRYLINE/FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO LET THESE VALUES RIDE FOR NOW
DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVERGENCE ZONE INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER
PWAT AIR OVER THE REGION. SEE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS CONCERNING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SET-UP REVEALS AN OPEN AND
WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS OVER OKLAHOMA WITH ONLY 40-60 KT H5 FLOW
OVERTOP SOUTHERLY 25 KT 925MB FLOW THAT HAS USHERED IN 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PWAT AMOUNTS NEAR 2.1". OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS LITTLE TO NO H5 HEIGHT FALLS HAVE OCCURRED AND MUCH
OF THE FORCING AND DYNAMIC LIFT IS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...BOTH GLOBAL AND SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
STRONGER LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT NEAR MIDNIGHT PER NWP MASS FIELDS. THE RAP13
REMAINS SUGGESTIVE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR SAN ANTONIO INTO FRIO/MEDINA WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE TEXAS TECH
WRF HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL DURING THIS EVENT THUS FAR AND IS
ALSO ON THE LOWER END OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WITH 1-3
INCHES. THE HRRR REMAINS A SUBSTANTIALLY HIGH OUTLIER AND HAS NOT
PERFORMED WELL AT ALL OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS AND IS BEING DISCOUNTED
FOR NOW. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE MIDNIGHT TO 6AM
TIME-FRAME FOR ANY UP-TICK IN MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. THE OVERALL
MESOSCALE SET-UP IS NOT IN FAVOR OF A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT GIVEN
WEAK TO LITTLE DYNAMIC FORCING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. LOOKING
DOWNSTREAM IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MEXICO...THERE IS
LITTLE DISCERNIBLE EVIDENCE OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WOULD HELP ENHANCE
LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. DESPITE THESE FACTORS AND GIVEN THE NEAR
RECORD PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE PLUS A BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST. IF
STORMS HAVE NOT FIRED BY MIDNIGHT TO 3AM...AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWERED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
PARTIAL CLEARING OF SKIES HAS LED TO A WARM AND MUGGY DAY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S IN THE HILL COUNTRY
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LATE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IN
THE LOW-LEVELS HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL
TAKE PLACE WEST OF I-35/NORTH OF I-10. AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS
IN STORE BY LATE EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE EVENING
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO
NORTHWARD. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE IS TO REMOVE EDWARDS COUNTY AS IT APPEARS THE
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF EDWARDS COUNTY. WE/LL
STILL MENTION RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST TOMORROW...IT
WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL MENTION A 30-50%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK INTO OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT...WE
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE 50-60% RANGE FOR MOST AREAS
ON SATURDAY. DRIER AIR FINALLY BRINGS A DECREASE IN MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THIS
TROUGH AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 62 70 56 65 50 / 90 50 50 60 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 62 70 56 65 49 / 80 50 50 60 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 72 58 67 51 / 80 50 50 60 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 58 70 54 64 48 / 90 30 50 50 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 73 60 67 52 / 40 20 50 50 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 60 70 54 65 47 / 90 40 50 60 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 63 71 58 67 49 / 70 40 50 60 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 70 57 65 50 / 80 50 50 60 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 74 60 67 51 / 80 50 50 50 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 63 71 60 67 52 / 70 50 50 60 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 73 61 68 53 / 70 50 50 60 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
DIMMIT...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1256 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO EAST TEXAS. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PASSING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT...TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST FRIDAY...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED AT BLF AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
75 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 74 DEGREES SET IN 1975. WITH
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SEVERAL DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
AS OF 923 AM EST FRIDAY...
THE MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED SOME DRIER AIR FROM AROUND
800 MB TO AROUND 600 MB WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE HIGHLIGHTED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR HINDERING THE CLOUD ADVANCE EAST AND
MIXING WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS. THE
MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM
TOLEDO TO WEST MEMPHIS. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH
THE LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING TO MATCH UP WITH SATELLITE TRENDS AND THEN INCREASE
CLOUDS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SHAPED POPS TOWARDS RNK WRFARW
AND HRRR BLEND FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE EAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. UNTIL ITS ARRIVAL...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FOR A VERY MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WILL THIN WITH
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS RELATIVELY
SHALLOW...AND MIXING FROM INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
CHEW AWAY AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD COVER.
AT 09Z/4AM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ORD/CHICAGO AREA
INTO EAST TEXAS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
HAS OUTPACED THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM CVG/CINCINNATI TO BNA/NASHVILLE. LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PUT THE SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA
(WV COUNTIES INTO FAR WRN VA) BETWEEN NOON-3PM.
THE ACTUAL SHORT WAVE ALOFT DRIVING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO
TODAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELD. AS SUCH...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE SURFACE
FRONT TO SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS...SO EVEN IF SHOWERS REACH THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANYTHING ACTUALLY CROSSES INTO THE
PIEDMONT.
FOR TODAY WILL KEEP MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONFINED TO AREAS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH FORECAST
CAPE OF 400-800 J/KG CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. FOR
TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SHOWERS SPREADING
EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. ATTM THINK SHOWERS SHOULD
REACH BLF/BLUEFIELD AND LWB/LEWISBURG AREAS BETWEEN NOON-
3PM...THEN INTO THE VA HIGHLANDS AND NEW RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
4-7PM...SHENANDOAH AND ROANOKE VALLEYS BETWEEN 7-10PM. DUE TO THE
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CAN`T RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER PRIOR TO THESE TIME FRAMES...BUT MAIN THREAT
SHOULD AWAIT ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY
SLOW MOVING ANAFRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY ADVERTISE THE SAME SOLUTION WITH WAVES
ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...
THOUGH THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE TIGHTER ALONG THE NORTH END OF THE
BOUNDARY SO WILL TAPER POPS A BIT UP NORTH. EXPECTED QPF DOES NOT
APPEAR TO POSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE COLDER AIR
WILL BE WORKING FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO EXPECT AN EARLY
HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS THEREAFTER. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE COLDER AIR
STARTS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND A RAPID END TO PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE HINTING AT SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST OF THE
RIDGE AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A DRY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING RESEMBLING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND TAKE UP A
FAMILIAR WEDGE POSITION THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US PLEASANT BUT CHILLY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE
THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW ALLOWS ANOTHER SHOT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR LATER ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HIGH QPF EVENT AS
THE LATEST SOLUTIONS SEEM TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SPLIT WITH
THE MAIN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING BY BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR
SOUTH AS A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION
IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION
EVOLVES IN LATER MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE
WEDGE SO EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THEY
TOP OUT IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST THURSDAY...
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS CROSSES FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. WPC
RECOMMENDED USING A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES FOR TIMING OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE
AT THIS TIME FRAME. WEDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...
HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND
WE GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1256 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF LOW CEILINGS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGES SHOWED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS THE HIGHRES
MODELS SUGGESTED. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASED SOLAR HEATING AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL INTRODUCE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS VCNTY OF KBLF AND KLWB THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING
EAST TO NEAR KBCB AND KROA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CAPE VALUES
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TOO
LOW TO ADD MENTION TO THE TAFS.
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY...LOW
CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WIND DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SCOURS THINGS OUT FOR SUNDAY. MODELS ARE VERY
PESSIMISTIC FOR CIGS SATURDAY MORNING...INDICATING WIDESPREAD IFR.
VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED. MODELS INDICATE RAPID
RETURN OF MOISTURE MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...KK/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
923 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO EAST TEXAS. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PASSING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT...TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 923 AM EST FRIDAY...
THE MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED SOME DRIER AIR FROM AROUND
800 MB TO AROUND 600 MB WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE HIGHLIGHTED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR HINDERING THE CLOUD ADVANCE EAST AND
MIXING WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS. THE
MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM
TOLEDO TO WEST MEMPHIS. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH
THE LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING TO MATCH UP WITH SATELLITE TRENDS AND THEN INCREASE
CLOUDS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SHAPED POPS TOWARDS RNK WRFARW
AND HRRR BLEND FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE EAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. UNTIL ITS ARRIVAL...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FOR A VERY MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WILL THIN WITH
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS RELATIVELY
SHALLOW...AND MIXING FROM INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
CHEW AWAY AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD COVER.
AT 09Z/4AM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ORD/CHICAGO AREA
INTO EAST TEXAS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
HAS OUTPACED THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM CVG/CINCINNATI TO BNA/NASHVILLE. LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PUT THE SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA
(WV COUNTIES INTO FAR WRN VA) BETWEEN NOON-3PM.
THE ACTUAL SHORT WAVE ALOFT DRIVING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO
TODAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELD. AS SUCH...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE SURFACE
FRONT TO SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS...SO EVEN IF SHOWERS REACH THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANYTHING ACTUALLY CROSSES INTO THE
PIEDMONT.
FOR TODAY WILL KEEP MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONFINED TO AREAS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH FORECAST
CAPE OF 400-800 J/KG CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. FOR
TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SHOWERS SPREADING
EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. ATTM THINK SHOWERS SHOULD
REACH BLF/BLUEFIELD AND LWB/LEWISBURG AREAS BETWEEN NOON-
3PM...THEN INTO THE VA HIGHLANDS AND NEW RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
4-7PM...SHENANDOAH AND ROANOKE VALLEYS BETWEEN 7-10PM. DUE TO THE
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CAN`T RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER PRIOR TO THESE TIME FRAMES...BUT MAIN THREAT
SHOULD AWAIT ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY
SLOW MOVING ANAFRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY ADVERTISE THE SAME SOLUTION WITH WAVES
ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...
THOUGH THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE TIGHTER ALONG THE NORTH END OF THE
BOUNDARY SO WILL TAPER POPS A BIT UP NORTH. EXPECTED QPF DOES NOT
APPEAR TO POSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE COLDER AIR
WILL BE WORKING FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO EXPECT AN EARLY
HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS THEREAFTER. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE COLDER AIR
STARTS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND A RAPID END TO PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE HINTING AT SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST OF THE
RIDGE AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A DRY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING RESEMBLING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND TAKE UP A
FAMILIAR WEDGE POSITION THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US PLEASANT BUT CHILLY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE
THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW ALLOWS ANOTHER SHOT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR LATER ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HIGH QPF EVENT AS
THE LATEST SOLUTIONS SEEM TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SPLIT WITH
THE MAIN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING BY BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR
SOUTH AS A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION
IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION
EVOLVES IN LATER MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE
WEDGE SO EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THEY
TOP OUT IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST THURSDAY...
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS CROSSES FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. WPC
RECOMMENDED USING A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES FOR TIMING OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE
AT THIS TIME FRAME. WEDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...
HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND
WE GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT FRIDAY...
STRATUS IS RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS JUST EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD SCOUR MOISTURE LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF
LOW CIGS BY TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT TODAY
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND SURFACE GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS...BEGINNING IN THE MOUNTAINS VCNTY OF KBLF/KLWB EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING EAST TO NEAR KBCB/KROA AROUND SUNSET.
CAPE VALUES OF 400-800 J/KG WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTM
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE TAFS.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
SATURDAY...LOW CIGS AND PRECIP LINGERING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
SCOURS THINGS OUT FOR SUNDAY. MODELS ARE VERY PESSIMISTIC FOR CIGS
SATURDAY MORNING...INDICATING WIDESPREAD IFR.
VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED. MODELS INDICATE RAPID
RETURN OF MOISTURE MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
303 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP REGION DRY TODAY...BUT CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH REGION TONIGHT AND SAT...WITH RAIN PUSHING TO THE
COAST BY SAT AM...AND INLAND DURING THE DAY. EXPECT MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
UNSETTLED COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SKIES CLEARED OUT MUCH OF THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING WHICH RESULTED IN A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH MANY
LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE 60S FOR A SEASONABLY WARM DAY. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAINING IN
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COAST RANGE AND NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER IN
SW WASHINGTON. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE REPLACED
BY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
LATEST FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT...PRESENTLY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BACK TO THE SW
ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. AS A RESULT...TRENDED THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL AS
PRECIPITATION BY SEVERAL HOURS. KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH
COAST FOR TONIGHT A LEADING IMPULSE MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
INITIALLY. THEN EXPECT THE MAIN LINE OF STEADY RAIN TO REACH THE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND PUSHING
INTO THE INTERIOR AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASES AS
THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STEADY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING OR NIGHT WHEN THE SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE INCH IN
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT ENTERS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH SNOW LEVELS SHARPLY
LOWERING FROM AROUND 7500 FT ON SATURDAY TO NEAR 3500 FT SUNDAY.
EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES ON THE CASCADE PASSES
FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY....WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES. DESPITE THESE AMOUNTS FALLING SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THOSE WITH PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE CASCADES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SHOULD BE PREPARED. SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT /SPSPQR/
ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR DETAILS.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OFFSHORE AND MOVES OVER THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AIDED
BY THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...AND THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAY HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME OF THESE
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT HAVE NOT EXTENDED THE COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME AS IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY BE LIMITING FACTORS BY
THIS POINT. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO EXTEND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION LATE MONDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
TUESDAY. COULD ALSO SEE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VALLEY FOG TUESDAY
MORNING IF CLOUDS CLEAR ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
SO WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. RAIN RETURNS WEDNESDAY
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE WET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
WE COULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN THE RAIN THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CASCADE SNOW LIKELY
CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. /64
&&
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLOUDS
LINGERING NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF IFR FOG/LOW STRATUS IN THE
INLAND VALLEYS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PORTLAND. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD INLAND
AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY...LIKELY NOT AFFECTING THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
TAF SITES MUCH UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND BREEZES WITH IT...AS WELL AS MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE COAST AND LOW VFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN MVFR
CONDITIONS INLAND.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE GORGE TO PREVENT ANY FOG TONIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT FRONTAL CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND LOWERING
CIGS UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE A
CHANCE OF LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PT
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS SPREADING SOUTH TONIGHT. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
WE WILL SEE GALE GUSTS AS THE CORE OF THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THE GALE
WARNING ISSUED EARLIER TODAY FOR 3 OF THE COASTAL WATER ZONES AND
A GALE WATCH FOR THE FOURTH. THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING THE WINDS TO AN END.
SEAS MAY REACH 10 FT WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE STRONGER WINDS MOVES THROUGH. THE WAVE MODELS THEN
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONGER PERIOD SWELL OF 12 TO 14 FT SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NOT DECREASING
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PT
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM PST SATURDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
247 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system arrives late Saturday and Sunday delivering rain
and mountain snow. This will be followed by hit or miss showers
and cooler temperatures through early next week. The next chance
of widespread precipitation will likely return by midweek. This
weather system will bring a chance for light snow in the valleys
and moderate to heavy snow in the mountains. A wetter and windy
storm system is expected to arrive late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: A developing warm front will bring increasing clouds and
potential for light precipitation across the Cascades and
northern mountains. Precipitation amounts will be light with the
best chance for a few hundredths along and north of Highway 20.
Snow levels will range between 3600-4000 feet in NE WA to over
5000 feet in the Cascades. Precipitation will be too light to have
much impacts but a dusting or so cannot be ruled out on Sherman
Pass. For the remainder of the region, the focus will be on fog
and low clouds. In theory, we should see less fog across
southeastern WA, Spokane-Cda, and Ritzville tonight as winds pick
up from the southeast. This flow pattern should shove the boundary
layer moisture into Central WA toward the Wenatchee Area,
Waterville Plateau, and valleys north of Hwy 2. This what short-
range models have forecast since this morning however, there is
some uncertainty that winds will be strong enough to push out the
current low clouds and there is little in the way of drying
heading this way. With increasing moisture in the mid and upper-
levels, this does not bode well for fog but I believe the low
clouds will stick around for many locations across the Upper Basin
and most points west and north with impacts mainly focused on
aviation. /sb
Saturday through Tuesday morning...Model guidance is actually in
pretty good agreement for the next several days. High pressure
will strengthen Saturday as the incoming trough takes on a more
north-south orientation. This will push the tonight`s warm front
and accompanying moisture north into southern B.C. by morning.
This will also allow the following cold front to slow down. While
there will still be a good chance of precipitation across the
extreme northwest portion of the forecast area through the day on
Saturday. Precipitation amounts should remain on the light side
away from the immediate Cascade crest. The cold front will then be
on the Cascades between 06-12z Sunday and quickly track east
across the forecast area by Sunday afternoon. The front will be
the focusing point for the best precipitation. The trough will
then move over the region Sunday night resulting in drying from
the west, but keeping a good chance for mountains showers for the
Idaho Panhandle. The atmosphere will destabilize enough on Monday
as the cold core passes through the region to support widespread
showers for just about all locations. But the best chances will be
in the up-sloping areas of the Panhandle and Northeast Washington
mountains.
This weather system will tap into pretty decent Pacific moisture
with PWATs around 200 percent of normal. So it looks like all
locations will see measurable precipitation. The Cascade crest and
Panhandle mountains, as usual, will be the big winners. Areas from
the lower east slopes across the basin and into the Palouse will
likely see from a tenth to a quarter of an inch, if not slightly
more. The mountains will likely see from a quarter to three
quarters of an inch of precipitation and locally up to an inch or
higher.
A a little tougher call will be just what will the precipitation
type be. Snow levels rise to between 5-7k feet with the warm
front and pretty much stay well above 5k feet until Sunday
mid-day as the cold front moves through. Snow levels lower to
between 4-5k feet by Sunday afternoon and 3-4k feet by Monday
afternoon. For areas below 3k feet precipitation will be as rain,
the exception maybe for the northern valleys up near the Canadian
border where some light accumulations will be possible during the Monday
morning commute. Otherwise precipitation will begin as mainly
rain and high elevations snow in the mountains before turning to
snow as the cooler air filters into the region. Snow amounts for
the Cascades will likely be 3-5 inches with 5-8 for the northeast
and Panhandle mountain by Monday morning.
Temperatures will warm nicely on Saturday with warm air advection
and be 3-6 degrees above normal. The cooling Sunday and Monday to
the cooler side of normal. Winds will be slightly elevated with
the cold front passage, but mainly under 15 mph. Tobin
...LIGHT VALLEY SNOW AND MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...
Tuesday through Thursday: The first in a pair of Pacific storm
systems next week will arrive on Wednesday. The 12Z model guidance
has come into much better agreement in the timing. The warm front
looks to arrive Wednesday morning. Moist isentropic ascent will
increase through the morning hours with this ascent will favor
the northern mountains and the ID Panhandle. Precipitation will
also begin to fall along the Cascade crest by the early morning
hours on Wednesday in strong westerly flow. This should result in
a shadow in the lee of the Cascades, which is expected to persist
as the cold front pushes into the basin in the afternoon. The
afternoon and evening period on Wednesday will likely be our best
chance for precipitation across extreme eastern WA and in the ID
Panhandle with cold front passage. Then the upper level trough
will push in over the region for Wednesday night and will steepen
mid level lapse rates considerably across the area. Moist westerly
flow in an increasingly more unstable air mass will keep
precipitation continuing over the Central Panhandle Mountains
through much of Wednesday night.
The main impacts from this weather system will be for accumulating
snowfall. Snow levels will start out at valley floors across the
northern mountains and in the ID Panhandle Wednesday morning. The
upper portions of the Methow Valley and higher benches around
Spokane will also see temperatures cold enough for a chance of
some snow at onset in the morning. Any valley accumulations will
likely be light as isentropic ascent will be weak Wednesday morning.
Winds at 850 mbs will strengthen to around 30-40 kts out of the
south by the afternoon. This is expected to moderate temperatures
at lower elevations at least around the edge of the basin. It is
difficult to say if the far northern valleys will see thermal
profiles warm up enough for precipitation to turn over to rain.
Models show wet bulb zeros height increasing to between 3-4 kft
through the afternoon, so we will continue with the thought that
the heaviest amount of snow will be at higher elevations. Snow
levels will plummet Wednesday night when the upper level cold pool
moves over. This will result in a stronger convective component
to the precipitation with heavy snow showers continuing across the
Central Panhandle Mountains.
...WET AND WINDY ON FRIDAY...
Thursday night and Friday: The second storm system to impact the
Inland Northwest will arrive on Friday. The Polar Jet will
strengthen over the Gulf of Alaska to over 180 kts at 250 mbs. A
rich plume of moisture will ride the jet and be directed into the
Northwest. Expect a different set of characteristics with this
second system. Temperatures will likely moderate considerably more
through the day on Friday than expected on Wednesday. Although,
we may see some snow falling in the valleys as this system begins
to move in, I expect snow levels to increase quickly by the
afternoon. Only the higher elevations will remain as snow with all
other areas changing over to rain. Rain could be heavy at times,
especially right along the Cascade crest, in the Northeast
Mountains and in the ID Panhandle. Winds will also be a concern on
Friday with models showing 850 mb winds to between 50-60 kts
possible. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Ceilings associated with widespread stratus across the
entire Columbia Basin expected to slowly lift and erode from
south to north 18-23Z. Confidence is low that stratus will fully
erode north of the Hwy 2 corridor and TAFS maybe a bit optimistic
but have support from HRRR and NAM models. Otherwise...a
developing warm front will bring increasing ceiling 6-8K ft AGL
with areas of very light precipitation across the northern
mountains tonight. Light SE flow overnight favors Wenatchee as
the best candidate for stratus Saturday morning. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 36 50 40 45 35 41 / 10 10 70 80 30 30
Coeur d`Alene 35 49 39 43 35 41 / 10 10 60 90 50 30
Pullman 34 50 39 45 35 42 / 0 0 60 80 40 40
Lewiston 36 54 44 50 41 46 / 0 0 40 50 50 50
Colville 35 48 39 46 33 43 / 40 20 70 70 30 20
Sandpoint 34 49 36 43 33 41 / 20 20 60 90 50 30
Kellogg 32 47 35 40 34 40 / 10 10 50 80 50 50
Moses Lake 35 52 40 51 32 46 / 10 20 70 20 20 30
Wenatchee 38 50 42 51 37 47 / 10 40 60 20 20 20
Omak 36 46 41 48 35 44 / 20 40 70 40 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
927 AM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP REGION DRY TODAY...BUT CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH REGION TONIGHT AND SAT...WITH RAIN PUSHING TO THE
COAST BY SAT AM...AND INLAND DURING THE DAY. EXPECT MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
UNSETTLED COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO SKY
COVER NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
AND OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TODAY KEEPS THE
REGION GENERALLY DRY. A FEW AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE IN
WASHINGTON COUNTY...AND LOCAL SPOTS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE THE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
THROUGH LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF A TILLAMOOK TO
BATTLE GROUND LINE. TO THE SOUTH...A GENERALLY PLEASANT DAY WITH SOME
SUN IN THE MORNING AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS LIKE HILLSBORO THAT HANG ON TO CLOUDS LONGER.
THESE AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S.
EXPECT SOME SUN AND BLUE SKIES FOR MANY LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY
INLAND AND SOUTH...THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. FORECAST MODELS REMAIN QUITE CONSISTENT IN THE
TIMING ON THE FRONT AND ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS FOR THE COAST NORTH OF LINCOLN CITY...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
STEADY RAIN TO BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE COAST AS THE FRONT
PUSHES ONSHORE...THEN RAIN SPREADS INLAND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
STILL EXPECTING MODEST RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
INLAND...AND ONE TO TWO INCHES FOR THE COAST...COAST RANGE...AND
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS 7000 TO 8000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOWER SATURDAY EVENING AS FRONT PUSHES INLAND
AND EXPECT SNOW NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...AND WITH SNOW LEVELS HOLDING NEAR PASS
LEVELS...SHOULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AT AND ABOVE
THE PASSES. TRAVELERS OVER THE CASCADE PASSES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT /SPSPQR/ FOR MORE DETAILS. CULLEN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
DROP DOWN TO 3000-4000 FT SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WITH POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY COULD BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO
THE PASSES AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SHOWERS START TO
CLEAR OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY KEEPING
THE AREA DRY. THIS ALSO CLEARS OUT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH
WILL BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING AND COULD ALSO HELP
CREATE VALLEY FOG IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT TROUGH
MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND MAYBE SOME MORE SNOW TO THE PASSES ON THURSDAY. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...THE MAIN AREA OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING WAS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE...AND THIS
IS LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BREAK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OR SO.
OTHERWISE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT TO OUR
NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NORTH
COAST NEAR KAST WHERE SOME VFR OR LOCALLY MVFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH. WE MAY SEE
SOME LOCAL IFR IN FOG LATER TONIGHT IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES...THOUGH A LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW NEAR THE GORGE MAY PROTECT MUCH OF THE PORTLAND AREA. THE
OFFSHORE COLD FRONT DOES NOT REACH KAST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...AND INLAND UNTIL MID DAY
SATURDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE GORGE TO PREVENT ANY FOG TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT FRONTAL CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PT
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. INITIALLY EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD WINDS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY
SPREADING SOUTH TONIGHT. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE HAVE A INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF GALE GUSTS AS THE CORE OF THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING
FOR 3 OF THE COASTAL WATER ZONES AND A GALE WATCH FOR THE FOURTH.
THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY BRINGING THE WINDS TO AN
END.
SEAS MAY REACH 10 FT WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE STRONGER WINDS MOVES THROUGH. THE WAVE MODELS THEN
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONGER PERIOD SWELL OF 12 TO 14 FT SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NOT DECREASING
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PT
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
435 AM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread clouds and fog will shroud much of the Inland Northwest
today, however there will be little threat of precipitation except
for a small chance of drizzle or flurries near the Canadian
Border. For tonight and into early Saturday, locations near the
Canadian Border will see a better chance of light precipitation as
a warm front moves into the area. The warm front will likely move
into southern British Columbia by Saturday afternoon, while a
stronger cold front tracks toward the Cascades. The cold front
will track over the region on Saturday night and Sunday resulting
in a wet end to the weekend with snow over the highest mountains.
This will be followed by hit or miss showers and cooler
temperatures through early next week. The next chance of
widespread precipitation will likely return by midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Quiet and benign weather will be the norm
today as upper level ridge will steadily build in from the west.
Meanwhile the upper level jet will buckle into BC which in turn
begins to forge a warm front and strengthening S-SE winds in the
lower atmosphere. So what does that mean for the weather today?
Perhaps not much. The main focus will revolve around a fairly
saturated lower atmosphere. Model guidance has been consistent on
keeping nearly saturated conditions from the surface to nearly 850
mbs. The latest fog product would substantiate this notion with
widespread low clouds seen over the eastern third of Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle with some terrain above 4-5k feet poking
through the stratus. Under this stratus we will continue to see
areas of fog through the morning, so of which could be dense at
times, especially from Spokane northward and eastward. Pockets of
drizzle/sprinkles could also occur as weak ascent is forecast
through this layer this morning, however we have yet to see proof
of that notion. Conditions will gradually improve from the south
as the warm front begins to take shape. Winds over SE Washington
will begin to turn to the S-SE which will gradually improve
conditions and eliminate the fog threat. The HRRR keeps the fog
over the northern Columbia Basin and Spokane area through late
morning, however its quite possible it will persist through midday
or early afternoon due to ample moisture and limited mixing
potential.
For tonight and into Saturday morning, the warm front continues to
strengthen with the boundary layer winds increasing to 10-15 mph
over much of the area in response to a growing N-S pressure
gradient. This should minimize the fog potential however it will
also lead to a growing threat of precipitation, once again
primarily near the Canadian Border due to moderate isentropic
ascent. Amounts should be light but the precip type is not
straight forward. There is no question the temperatures above the
850 mb level will rise steadily with snow levels climbing into the
5-6k ft range or higher by Saturday morning. However we don`t
expect the lower elevations to warm quite as quickly. The question
is could some of the far northern valleys fall below freezing this
evening and remain there as the precip arrives. If that were to
occur we could see some brief light freezing rain and the SREF
hints at a small chance of this happening. My confidence in this
is quite low as this is the wrong time of year climatologically
speaking plus we don`t have deep cold air in place. However it
bears watching. By afternoon the warm front scoots north of the
Canadian Border and the main precipitation threat will transition
to a stronger cold front. This front will feature far greater
ascent and deeper moisture. The combination will likely deliver
light precipitation the Wenatchee and Okanogan Valley area with
moderate precipitation expected near the Cascades. Snow will be
possible generally at or above 5000 feet with snow possibly
impacting higher portions of the North Cascade Highway.
Temperatures will finally warm above normal conditions due to the
relatively mild south-southeast winds. Look for most of the high
temperatures to climb into the upper 40s to middle 50s. fx
Saturday Night and Sunday: The upper level trough axis will move
onshore and a cold front will slowly move across eastern WA and
north ID. Through the evening the best chance of precipitation
will fall west of a line from Colville to the Tri Cities. Then
through the overnight hours and into Sunday morning the front will
move through extreme eastern WA and north ID. Snow levels will
lower through the period. The best locations for accumulating snow
will be across the Cascades and the northern mountains of WA and
ID. Snow levels there will start out about 5k feet Sat evening and
by Sunday afternoon lower to 3500-4000 ft. Snow totals will
generally range around 2-4 inches in the mountains. The exception
to this will be across extreme northeast WA and north ID where
their heavier precip amounts will coincide with the slightly
lower snow levels early Sunday morning and they could see some
local accumulations up to 8 inches...generally above 5k ft. No
accumulating snow is expected at this time for any of the valley
locations. Liquid precipitation amounts will vary; ranging from
0.10-0.20 across the Basin and Wenatchee/Waterville Plateau areas
to 0.25-0.50 inch east of a line from Omak to Pullman. Temps sat
night will actually be several degrees above average given the
extensive cloud cover and slightly elevated winds. Have added some
patchy fog across the northern valleys through the morning hours.
Sunday temps will be around average.
Sunday Night through Tuesday: The main energy associated with the
trough will continue to dig south. The cold core of the trough
will remain over the area for continued threat of showers across
the mountains and portions of extreme eastern WA Monday. By
Tuesday a shortwave ridge pushes into the area for dry conditions.
Temperatures will continue to cool with below average readings
expected Monday and Tuesday. Fog is a good bet Monday night
through Tuesday morning across most valleys of NE WA and N ID.
/Nisbet
Tuesday night through Thursday: This period is expected to bring
a decent amount of precip to the region. A trough will breakdown a
weak ridge and pump a significant amount moisture into the region
being supported by an upper level jet. of Unfortunately the model
agreement is not to high to pin down the exact timing of the
impacts of the upcoming systems. The GFS is bringing this trough
in on Wednesday morning, around 18 hours faster than the ECMWF
and Canadian models. The best period for precip is expected to be
Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Isolated showers in the
Cascades will be possible before this but the amount of precip
from these showers will be fairly light. As for Wednesday night
and Thursday morning, the Northern Cascades will be impacted the
most with the higher snow amounts expected for roads and passes
in the area. The other higher terrain across the Canadian Border
and Idaho Panhandle will receive snow but not expected be a
significant amount. Valleys in these areas could get snow in the
earlier morning hours of Thursday. The Columbia Basin can expect
mostly rain showers but winds will begin to increase as the trough
approaches with gusts in the 40 MPH range. Highs for the region
will be in the mid 40s to low 50s for the lower elevations. The
lows will range in the 30s. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The forecast confidence will remain quite low for most
sites this morning due to widely varying conditions under a
expansive blanket of low clouds. Confidence is high that most if not
all sites will see at best MVFR cigs this morning at least over the
eastern third of WA into north ID with bases generally no higher
than 015. PUW and GEG will likely see the worst of the conditions
with cigs below 005 and vsbys ranging from 1-3 miles or worse at
times. For MWH and EAT our confidence is even lower since we can`t
see how expansive the low clouds on satellite due to considerable
high clouds however there is patchy fog around both sites according
to nearby obs and webcams. Our confidence of improving conditions
for the afternoon is fairly high for PUW and LWS as low level winds
turn to the S-SE. These improving conditions will gradually spread N-
NW with time however how quick is the question. Its quite possible
MVFR cigs will persist through the entire day with the main
improvement revolving around increased visibilities. For tonight,
the low clouds should ease over most of the sites, with VFR cigs
prevailing. The only exception is for EAT where a incoming cold
front will likely drop cigs into the MVFR category toward morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 40 35 49 39 46 36 / 10 10 10 80 70 40
Coeur d`Alene 42 35 50 39 43 36 / 10 10 10 60 80 50
Pullman 44 35 51 38 44 35 / 10 10 0 40 70 40
Lewiston 49 37 54 43 49 40 / 10 10 0 20 50 40
Colville 40 35 47 37 47 34 / 10 30 30 80 60 40
Sandpoint 39 33 48 35 42 32 / 10 20 20 60 80 50
Kellogg 39 33 46 36 38 34 / 10 10 10 40 80 60
Moses Lake 48 34 52 39 52 34 / 10 10 10 60 10 10
Wenatchee 50 41 51 43 53 38 / 10 10 30 70 10 20
Omak 45 39 49 40 50 35 / 10 20 40 60 20 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
305 AM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP REGION DRY TODAY...THOUGH WITH
PLENTY OF FOG THIS AM. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH REGION TONIGHT
AND SAT...WITH RAIN PUSHING TO THE COAST BY SAT AM...AND INLAND
DURING THE DAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW
LEVELS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND SUN. UNSETTLED COOL
WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP MUCH
OF THE REGION DRY. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST
WILL PUSH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...GENERALLY NORTH OF
A TILLAMOOK TO BATTLE GROUND LINE. TO SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP
WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT DAY.
BUT...WITH HAVE A PROBLEM. WITH THE CLOUD BREAKS...HAVE HAD FOG FORM
OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. GENERALLY THE
VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG RUNNING 1/4 TO 1 MILE...WITH FOG LOCALLY
DENSE WITH VISIBILITY CLOSER TO 1/8 OF A MILE. NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY
YET...BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD STILL USE CAUTION THIS AM...WATCH FOR
BIKERS AND PEDESTRIANS...AND BE PREPARED TO STOP SUDDENLY IF NEEDED.
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF...PROBABLY NOT
UNTIL NOON TO 2 PM. SO...EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S...SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY MAY
ONLY TOP IN THE LOWER 50S.
MODELS REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT IN KEEP PRECIPITATION WITH THE
INCOMING FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...THOUGH
WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF RAIN N OF LINCOLN CITY FOR TONIGHT. AS FRONT
PUSHES TO COAST...RAIN SHOULD INCREASE ON THE COAST SAT AM AND SPREAD
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE NOT LIKE LAST WEEKEND... RAINFALL
STILL MODEST WITH 0.50 TO 1 INCH FOR INLAND AREAS WITH GENERALLY 1 TO
2 INCHES FOR COAST MTNS AND S WASH/N ORE CASCADES.
SNOW LEVELS WILL HOLD AT 7000 TO 8000 FEET THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATER SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL START DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 OR 4500
FT BY SUN AM. SHOWERS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...AND WITH SNOW LEVELS
HOLDING NEAR PASS LEVELS...SHOULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATE AT AND ABOVE THE PASSES. TRAVELERS OVER CASCADES THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POTENTIALLY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS ON
SUN THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IN THE CASCADES. ROCKEY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
DROP DOWN TO 3000-4000 FT SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WITH POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY COULD BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO
THE PASSES AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SHOWERS START TO
CLEAR OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY KEEPING
THE AREA DRY. THIS ALSO CLEARS OUT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH
WILL BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING AND COULD ALSO HELP
CREATE VALLEY FOG IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT TROUGH
MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND MAYBE SOME MORE SNOW TO THE PASSES ON THURSDAY. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN TAF SITES...AND CLEARING
SKIES FARTHER SOUTH HAS LED TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE CIGS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 3KFT AND 6KFT ACROSS THE PORTLAND
METRO WILL CLEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME PATCHY LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TO FORM BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
THIS WILL OCCUR GIVEN UPSTREAM SITES KSLE AND KUAO ARE STILL
OVERCAST AND VFR. WEAK SOUTH WINDS TODAY SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR ANY
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z FRIDAY. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE...BUT
THERE MAY ENOUGH OF A WINDOW OF LIGHT WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO ALLOW LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO FORM AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING...IMPROVING MORE SOLIDLY TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS FORMING BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z FRIDAY IF CURRENT CIGS BETWEEN 3KFT AND 6KFT DISSIPATE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW GIVEN THIS HAS YET TO HAPPEN
FARTHER SOUTH AT KSLE AND KUAO. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT TO PEAK LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND ON SATURDAY ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE A FEW GUSTS OF 35 KT
COULD SURFACE ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COAST...BUT SUSPECT ANY WILL BE SHORT LIVED SO WILL KEEP CURRENT
HEADLINES AS IS. THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE STRONGER
SOUTH WINDS...WILL ALSO SPREAD A LONGER PERIOD 12 TO 14 FT
WESTERLY SWELL INTO THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT
SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER
FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL NOON PST SATURDAY FOR
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM
PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10
NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
305 AM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread clouds and fog will shroud much of the Inland Northwest
today, however there will be little threat of precipitation except
for a small chance of drizzle or flurries near the Canadian
Border. For tonight and into early Saturday, locations near the
Canadian Border will see a better chance of light precipitation as
a warm front moves into the area. The warm front will likely move
into southern British Columbia by Saturday afternoon, while a
stronger cold front tracks toward the Cascades. The cold front
will track over the region on Saturday night and Sunday resulting
in a wet end to the weekend with snow over the highest mountains.
This will be followed by hit or miss showers and cooler
temperatures through early next week. The next chance of
widespread precipitation will likely return by midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Quiet and benign weather will be the norm
today as upper level ridge will steadily build in from the west.
Meanwhile the upper level jet will buckle into BC which in turn
begins to forge a warm front and strengthening S-SE winds in the
lower atmosphere. So what does that mean for the weather today?
Perhaps not much. The main focus will revolve around a fairly
saturated lower atmosphere. Model guidance has been consistent on
keeping nearly saturated conditions from the surface to nearly 850
mbs. The latest fog product would substantiate this notion with
widespread low clouds seen over the eastern third of Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle with some terrain above 4-5k feet poking
through the stratus. Under this stratus we will continue to see
areas of fog through the morning, so of which could be dense at
times, especially from Spokane northward and eastward. Pockets of
drizzle/sprinkles could also occur as weak ascent is forecast
through this layer this morning, however we have yet to see proof
of that notion. Conditions will gradually improve from the south
as the warm front begins to take shape. Winds over SE Washington
will begin to turn to the S-SE which will gradually improve
conditions and eliminate the fog threat. The HRRR keeps the fog
over the northern Columbia Basin and Spokane area through late
morning, however its quite possible it will persist through midday
or early afternoon due to ample moisture and limited mixing
potential.
For tonight and into Saturday morning, the warm front continues to
strengthen with the boundary layer winds increasing to 10-15 mph
over much of the area in response to a growing N-S pressure
gradient. This should minimize the fog potential however it will
also lead to a growing threat of precipitation, once again
primarily near the Canadian Border due to moderate isentropic
ascent. Amounts should be light but the precip type is not
straight forward. There is no question the temperatures above the
850 mb level will rise steadily with snow levels climbing into the
5-6k ft range or higher by Saturday morning. However we don`t
expect the lower elevations to warm quite as quickly. The question
is could some of the far northern valleys fall below freezing this
evening and remain there as the precip arrives. If that were to
occur we could see some brief light freezing rain and the SREF
hints at a small chance of this happening. My confidence in this
is quite low as this is the wrong time of year climatologically
speaking plus we don`t have deep cold air in place. However it
bears watching. By afternoon the warm front scoots north of the
Canadian Border and the main precipitation threat will transition
to a stronger cold front. This front will feature far greater
ascent and deeper moisture. The combination will likely deliver
light precipitation the Wenatchee and Okanogan Valley area with
moderate precipitation expected near the Cascades. Snow will be
possible generally at or above 5000 feet with snow possibly
impacting higher portions of the North Cascade Highway.
Temperatures will finally warm above normal conditions due to the
relatively mild south-southeast winds. Look for most of the high
temperatures to climb into the upper 40s to middle 50s. fx
Saturday Night and Sunday: The upper level trough axis will move
onshore and a cold front will slowly move across eastern WA and
north ID. Through the evening the best chance of precipitation
will fall west of a line from Colville to the Tri Cities. Then
through the overnight hours and into Sunday morning the front will
move through extreme eastern WA and north ID. Snow levels will
lower through the period. The best locations for accumulating snow
will be across the Cascades and the northern mountains of WA and
ID. Snow levels there will start out about 5k feet Sat evening and
by Sunday afternoon lower to 3500-4000 ft. Snow totals will
generally range around 2-4 inches in the mountains. The exception
to this will be across extreme northeast WA and north ID where
their heavier precip amounts will coincide with the slightly
lower snow levels early Sunday morning and they could see some
local accumulations up to 8 inches...generally above 5k ft. No
accumulating snow is expected at this time for any of the valley
locations. Liquid precipitation amounts will vary; ranging from
0.10-0.20 across the Basin and Wenatchee/Waterville Plateau areas
to 0.25-0.50 inch east of a line from Omak to Pullman. Temps sat
night will actually be several degrees above average given the
extensive cloud cover and slightly elevated winds. Have added some
patchy fog across the northern valleys through the morning hours.
Sunday temps will be around average.
Sunday Night through Tuesday: The main energy associated with the
trough will continue to dig south. The cold core of the trough
will remain over the area for continued threat of showers across
the mountains and portions of extreme eastern WA Monday. By
Tuesday a shortwave ridge pushes into the area for dry conditions.
Temperatures will continue to cool with below average readings
expected Monday and Tuesday. Fog is a good bet Monday night
through Tuesday morning across most valleys of NE WA and N ID.
/Nisbet
Tuesday night through Thursday: This period is expected to bring
a decent amount of precip to the region. A trough will breakdown a
weak ridge and pump a significant amount moisture into the region
being supported by an upper level jet. of Unfortunately the model
agreement is not to high to pin down the exact timing of the
impacts of the upcoming systems. The GFS is bringing this trough
in on Wednesday morning, around 18 hours faster than the ECMWF
and Canadian models. The best period for precip is expected to be
Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Isolated showers in the
Cascades will be possible before this but the amount of precip
from these showers will be fairly light. As for Wednesday night
and Thursday morning, the Northern Cascades will be impacted the
most with the higher snow amounts expected for roads and passes
in the area. The other higher terrain across the Canadian Border
and Idaho Panhandle will receive snow but not expected be a
significant amount. Valleys in these areas could get snow in the
earlier morning hours of Thursday. The Columbia Basin can expect
mostly rain showers but winds will begin to increase as the trough
approaches with gusts in the 40 MPH range. Highs for the region
will be in the mid 40s to low 50s for the lower elevations. The
lows will range in the 30s. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A low confidence forecast remains, but low level
moisture and a developing south/southeast flow developing is
expected to promote stratus and fog with IFR/MVFR conditions
around the eastern TAF sites, including GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS.
Timing and persistence of fog has least confidence, with transient
mid to high clouds and the potential for stratus to win out.
Either way, MVFR/IFR cigs are expected much of the period. But as
the easterly flow increases, some improvement is projected near
PUW toward 11-13Z. Amendments are likely. Patchier fog is
possible around MWH, but confidence is even lower. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 40 35 49 39 46 36 / 10 10 10 80 70 40
Coeur d`Alene 42 35 50 39 43 36 / 10 10 10 60 80 50
Pullman 44 35 51 38 44 35 / 10 10 0 40 70 40
Lewiston 49 37 54 43 49 40 / 10 10 0 20 50 40
Colville 40 35 47 37 47 34 / 10 30 30 80 60 40
Sandpoint 39 33 48 35 42 32 / 10 20 20 60 80 50
Kellogg 39 33 46 36 38 34 / 10 10 10 40 80 60
Moses Lake 48 34 52 39 52 34 / 10 10 10 60 10 10
Wenatchee 50 41 51 43 53 38 / 10 10 30 70 10 20
Omak 45 39 49 40 50 35 / 10 20 40 60 20 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE AREA ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. A COOL UPPER TROUGH
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS IT WILL BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT BUT THE NAM12 SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS POPPING BACK UP AND THE
GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH THE INCOMING WARM
FRONT. GUT FEELING IS THAT IT WILL BE BASICALLY DRY TONIGHT.
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO CUT BACK ON POPS BUT DID NOT DRY
THINGS OUT ENTIRELY ALL AREAS IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFS WHICH SHOWS
SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIP DEVELOPING COAST AND SOUTH PART AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
MAIN RAIN THREAT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST BUT A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FURTHER INLAND.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ONTO THE COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE INTERIOR SATURDAY FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN ALL
AREAS. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
SUB-ADVISORY SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE ABOVE PASS LEVELS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY EVENING WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SHOWERS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON
SUNDAY FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PASSES. SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER. THE NEXT PAC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER AND WETTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP A BLENDED FORECAST FOR NOW WHICH
LEANS TOWARD CLIMO. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT
GIVEN THE DISPARITIES IN THE MODELS THE EXACT TIMING REMAINS
UNCLEAR. 33
&&
.AVIATION...THE AIR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND STABLE AS A
WARM FRONT REACHES WESTERN WA ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THEN RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS.
KSEA...LOW CLOUDS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...THEN RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA. SOUTH WIND DEVELOPS BY
DAYBREAK.
&&
.MARINE...A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE INLAND ON
SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SHIFT TO LIGHTER WESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL ARRIVE AROUND TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
312 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
WITH PRECIPITATION FROM LAST EVENING NOW MOVING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN...MAIN CHALLENGES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS
AND TEMPERATURES. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST.
06.08Z SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION...
ALTHOUGH AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD MASS EXTENDS WESTWARD ALL THE WAY BACK
TO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WITH
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BULK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS
WAVE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI...SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE FARTHER SOUTH. SOME WESTERLY BREEZES WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
POSSIBLE GIVEN 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM +1 TO + 3 CELSIUS WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S...A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH CLOSER TO EARLY NOVEMBER NORMALS.
EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE CLOUDS
BREAK-UP...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S MOST AREAS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED
FROM 5 TO 10 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
500 HPA HEIGHT PATTERN SHIFTS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION. A VERY DRY
AIR MASS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY...FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY THEN
SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BEGINNING SUNDAY. AFTERNOON
GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST RESULTING IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A BAGGY SHORT-WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WEAK OVERALL FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE PRECLUDES
PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...06.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS EASTWARD
EVOLUTION AFTER EJECTING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE GFS
MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE WITH A DISTINCT NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
THAT NEVER FULLY PHASE AS THEY CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN
CONTRAST...THE ECMWF HOLDS MOST OF ITS ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND DEVELOPS A STRONG CLOSED LOW THAT BARRELS THROUGH THE
HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY. THE GFS IS COLDER AND
DEVELOPS MOST OF ITS PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WHEREAS THE
ECMWF IS WARMER AND MUCH WETTER. SUPERBLEND POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY SEEM REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS MODELS CONVERGE ON A
SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM
ENOUGH DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
ALL RAIN...BUT WITH COLDER VALUES INTO THE 30S AT NIGHT...A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SHRA/ISOLD T HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES...LEAVING CIGS AS THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.
DIFFERING OPINIONS IN HOW LONG MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD ACROSS KRST/KLSE.
LATEST RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD GO INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON
FRI...GFS WOULD BREAK OUT BY MID MORNING...WHILE THE NAM IS SIMILAR
TO THE RAP. GOING TO LEAN ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS...HOLDING
MVFR INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN HOW THE CLOUD TRENDS
WILL PLAY OUT /COMPARED TO EARLIER/. ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CIG FORECAST. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LOOKS TO BRING BACK MORE
CIGS...BUT THESE LOOK VFR AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FROPA WITH SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING..THEN
BRISK/COLDER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FIRST
24-36 HOURS.
WATER VAPOR/RAP 400MB ANALYSIS SHOWING EVOLUTION OF AN
ELONGATED/DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAKING INROADS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST
WEST OF THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH NORTHWEST IA...INTO EASTERN KS.
A VERY TIGHT/4NM WIDE N/S LINE OF SHRA EXTENDED ALONG THIS
FRONT...MARCHING EAST AROUND 15-20 MPH THROUGH EASTERN MN PER LATEST
RADAR MOSAIC. OTHERWISE...INFLUX OF LOWER/LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE STRATUS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
AREA AS DEW POINTS WERE INCREASING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S.
LATEST MESOWRF MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
FAIRLY WELL...MARCHING THE LINE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. RAP SHOWING MUCAPE OF
AROUND 500J/KG ALONG WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-40KT RANGE.
THINKING TOO MUCH SHEAR FOR EXTENSIVE UPDRAFT...BUT STILL COULD BE A
STRONGER SHOWER OR STORM OR TWO THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL
GOING INTO THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT/RAIN EXITS EAST...PLAN ON
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING IN WITH GUSTS ON AVERAGE IN THE 20 TO
25 MPH RANGE. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
THE MIDDLE 40S.
COLDER BRISK CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS. DEEPER MIXING OF COLD 0C TO -3C 850MB AIR
SHOULD YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. COMBINING THESE TEMPERATURES
WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS/PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER...QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE RECENT WARM
SPELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...IN
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...MODELS SWING A TROUGH THROUGH
THE AREA WITH THE NAM EVEN SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BREAKING
OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA. OTHER MODEL NOT SHOWING
THIS...SO OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IT FOR NOW GIVEN THE DRY LOWER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT THOUGH SINCE NAM DOES SHOW
RATHER STRONG 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
COLDEST CORE OF AIR OVER THE AIR ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. NAM 850MB AIR IN THE -2C TO -6C RANGE AT 21Z. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE.
SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN ADVANCE OF WEST COAST TROUGH.
PLAN ON HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 50S.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THE REGION. RIGHT
NOW...THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER BY A DAY TO A DAY AND A HALF
WITH THIS LOW...SO IT IS LIKELY POPS MAY CHANGE WITH TIME. TIMING
WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SHRA/ISOLD T HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES...LEAVING CIGS AS THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.
DIFFERING OPINIONS IN HOW LONG MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD ACROSS KRST/KLSE.
LATEST RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD GO INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON
FRI...GFS WOULD BREAK OUT BY MID MORNING...WHILE THE NAM IS SIMILAR
TO THE RAP. GOING TO LEAN ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS...HOLDING
MVFR INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN HOW THE CLOUD TRENDS
WILL PLAY OUT /COMPARED TO EARLIER/. ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CIG FORECAST. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LOOKS TO BRING BACK MORE
CIGS...BUT THESE LOOK VFR AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
944 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2015
TODAY-TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE BACKING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING TO THE
12 TO 17MPH RANGE. THE H5 TROUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND GIVE WAY TO A SURFACE HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO
SUNDAY.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING...MORNING STRATUS WILL CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS A RESULT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
HIGH. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2015
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM FOR THE
TRI-STATE AREA.
PRIOR TO THE STORM SYSTEM THE AREA WILL SEE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ADVECT WARMER AIR UP FROM THE
SOUTH. WITH NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
FALL TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FORECAST AND IMPACTS OF UPCOMING WINTER STORM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA. IN GENERAL THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE
STRONGEST...MOST PROLONGED MOISTURE WILL BE. THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL LESSEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME. MAY HAVE NOT GONE COOL ENOUGH FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BEHIND THE FRONT
WINDS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN. MODELS INDICATE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60
MPH MAY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...WITH THE SWATH OF HIGH WINDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. KEPT WINDS IN THE FORECAST ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE FOR NOW IN CASE THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH. DID CONTINUE TO INCREASE WINDS AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DID...SO THE TREND IS GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING WHICH IS
WHEN THE SNOWFALL WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RATES. IF CURRENT DATA
HOLDS...THERE WILL BE NO VISIBILITY IN THE MODERATE SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO DRIFTS OVER ROADS...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO TRAVEL WHERE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN OR ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM SOME. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END
AND WINDS TO DECLINE DURING THE EVENING.
DUE TO RAIN BEING MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW...IF TEMPERATURES BECOME
COLD ENOUGH A LAYER OF ICE MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ON ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO FAR INTO THE DETAILS OF THE FIRST WINTER
STORM OF THE SEASON SINCE IT IS STILL FOUR DAYS AWAY...BUT CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE TO LOOK PROMISING. THE ONLY SURE BET SO FAR IS THE
STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY.
SHIFTING TO MORE OF AN ANALYSIS STANDPOINT...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PATH OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER
WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WITH EACH OF THE LAST THREE MODEL RUNS.
DECIDED TO LOOK AT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GFS FORECAST FIELDS BECAUSE
OF THIS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVER THE AREA...A SWATH OF UPPER
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AND TRACKS TO THE EAST.
THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DEEP PROLONGED LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA. LAPSE RATES IN THIS SAME AREA...WHICH IS ALSO
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL
DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS ENDS UP HAPPENING THERE WILL BE A NARROW AREA
OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
LOOKING AT THE MOISTURE CONTENT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER MIXING RATIOS
DO SHOW THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE
STRONG LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS. LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE SNOW WILL BE NORMAL BASED ON THE MIXING RATIOS.
AFTER THE WINTER STORM EXPECT DRY CONDTIONS AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 936 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO. THE NAM HAS BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASING AT
KGLD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING NEAR KGLD BUT THE HRRR DOES NOT
INDICATE ANY STRATUS CEILING IN THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
348 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY THEN
MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS BANDS OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE ST
LAWRENCE STREAMERS OF FLURRIES AND EVEN EMBEDDED SN SHWRS OVR PTNS
OF NRN ME VERY ERLY THIS MORN FROM ERN QB BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT. FCST HRLY TRENDS OF RADAR REF FROM HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY 530 AM EST...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SCT ERLY MORN FLURRIES FROM ZONES 4...5 AND 6 NWRD.
WITH GREATER LLVL SUBSIDENCE XPCTD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF ACROSS THE FA BY 7 AM EST... WE FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT THE HRRR
FCST TREND OF DISSIPATING FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SN SHWRS...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNFL FOR A FEW LCTNS THAT EXPERIENCE
BRIEF HEAVIER SN SHWRS ERLY THIS MORN.
OTHERWISE...SC CLD CVR WILL BECOME MORE SCT ACROSS THE N BY AFTN
WITH MSLY SUNNY SKIES XPCTD ALL DAY ACROSS E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER THAN
YSTDY...AND WNW WINDS WILL AGAIN BE BRISK...BUT NOT QUITE SO AS
YSTDY.
SKIES WILL BEGIN MSLY CLR THIS EVE AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH
DECOUPLING FROM STRONGER WINDS ALF. CLDS THEN INCREASE LATER TNGT
FROM THE WNW FOR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA AS A NARROW WARM
ADVCN BAND OF CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LVL JET STREAK
MOVES IN THE FA FROM ERN QB. THESE CLDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE FALL
OF TEMPS SUN NGT...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY PRIOR TO MDNGT ACROSS THE
N HLF OF THE FA. WE BRING SLGT CHC POPS OF SN/RN SHWRS FROM VERY
ERLY TO LATE MORN MON ACROSS THE NRN QUARTER OF THE FA AS THE AXIS
OF THIS NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE CROSSES THIS PTN OF THE FA...WITH
THE BAND LIFTING NE OF THE REGION MON AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER ON MON FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT SPCLY FOR THE SW HLF WHICH
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHC TO BREAK BACK INTO SUNSHINE BY AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
SOUTH. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THE
00Z NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM, ACTUALLY
CENTERING IT SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD HAVE
PRECIPITATION POISED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST BY SUNSET. HOWEVER, THE
NAM`S CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER AND BELIEVE IT IS TOO FAR NORTH AND
EAST WITH ITS LOW. THEREFORE, TUESDAY LOOKS TO STAY DRY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S
SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WAS ON TWO POTENTIAL SYSTEMS, ONE FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THE OTHER TOWARD THE END. THE FIRST
WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST AND TREKS EAST-NORTHEAST. THE 08/00Z MODELS
HAVE SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM, NOW
BRINGING IT JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS WOULD CAUSE RAIN TO
SPREAD OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, BUT CAPPED THEM AT
LIKELY SINCE THIS IS ONLY THE FIRST RUN TO INDICATE THE NORTHERN
TRACK. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BY LATER SHIFTS AS TRENDS
BECOME MORE APPARENT.
AFTER A BRIEF RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, THE FOCUS
BECOMES ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS IS A COMPLEX SYSTEM, AS LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
TWO IMPORTANT QUESTIONS: (1) HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN SETTLE INTO THE
STATE PRIOR TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW AND (2)
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE WILL THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOP? LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT OVERALL SITUATION SEEMS TO SHOW COLD AIR
REMAINING DAMMED UP OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW
OVER THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY BECOME A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE, SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD START OUT
AS RAIN AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE EVENT. WARM AIR REALLY INCREASES
OVERNIGHT, SO PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NOTE THAT THE THICKNESS PROGS
INDICATE SOME SLEET MAY MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH SOUNDINGS
ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE. HAVE
STAYED WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW, BUT IF THE COLD AIR HANGS IN
LONGER THAN EXPECTED, A PERIOD OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX WOULD BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. IN ADDITION, IF THE
SECONDARY LOW IS ABLE TO DEVELOP QUICKLY, COLD AIR MAY WRAP IN
MORE RAPIDLY OR PERHAPS EVEN COMPLETELY PRECLUDE SURFACE WARM AIR
MAKING IT ALL THE WAY NORTH...MEANING THAT NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE
MORE SNOW AND LESS RAIN. THE ECMWF FAVORS THIS SOLUTION, KEEPING
THE WARMER AIR SOUTH OF HOULTON, WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST
UPDATES AS THIS SYSTEM AND ITS IMPACTS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF
MVFR CLGS CNTRD ARND ERLY TO MID MON MORN ACROSS NRN MOST TAF
SITES WITH A BAND OF WARM ADVCN CLDNSS AND PERHAPS FLURRIES.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND EXPECT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY ROUGHLY 06Z WED THRU 06Z THU. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, BUT CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER AFTER 18Z THU AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS SNOW AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL BE ALL RAIN. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT LOW END SCA FOR OUR WATERS
FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND MAX WV HTS UP TO 5 FT FOR OUTER
MZS...WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM MON. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF MON. AGAIN...
KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WHICH HAS DONE FAIRLY WELL OVR THE
LAST FEW DAYS.
SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY, LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FEET.
THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1201 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY THEN
CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1155 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A LONE GROUP OF
FLURRIES OR LGT SN SHWRS OVR FAR NE ME ABOUT TO EXIT ESE INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK PROV...SO THIS UPDATE WILL NOT REFLECT ANY SN SHWR
POPS. OTHERWISE...CHANGES WERE MADE TO FCST CLD CVR BASED ON
TRENDS SEEN IN LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED BASED ON BIASES SEEN IN 11 PM OBS FROM THE PRIOR FCST OF
TEMPS AT THIS HR TO MSLY UNCHGD FCST LOWS CURRENTLY POSTED AT
7 AM SUN.
PREV DISC: SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE
2ND COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM
SHOWED THIS ACTIVITY TO SOME EXTENT AND IS BACKED UP BY THE LATEST
RUN OF THE HRRR AND 18Z NAM. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY
THE EVENING W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL EFFECTS.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT W/SKIES CLEARING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. FIRST SHOT OF CAA ON THE WAY. DEWPOINTS
HAVE FALLEN BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BACK MORE OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING
TO RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/LOW TO
MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE 12Z UA SHOWED A DISTURBANCE BACK
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING THIS
DISTURBANCE TO SWING THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT DECENT RH FROM 900-780MBS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST LOOK
TO BE MUCH DRIER. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO CARRY MORE CLOUDS SAY
FROM HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET ON NORTH WHILE THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND DOWNEAST SHOULD HAVE LESS CLOUDS W/THE HELP ONCE AGAIN OF A
DOWNSLOPE(NW) WIND. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS AS
FORCING/CONVERGENCE APPEAR TO BE WEAK AT BEST. MUCH COLDER FOR
SUNDAY W/DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
NOVEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND BREEZY. A BIT OF
MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH, AND AHEAD OF A
SMALL SHORTWAVE, WILL PRODUCE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL THEN BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE MORE TRANQUIL THAN RECENT
DAYS WITH THE HIGH CRESTING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS. OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING OCCLUDING FRONT
PUSHING AHEAD OF A LOW TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. THURSDAY
WILL BEGIN DRY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN
AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS BEFORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PULL IN WARMER AIR AND TURN ALL PRECIPITATION
OVER TO ALL RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE OCCLUSION PUSHES NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY OVER THE NORTH,
AS MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA PUSHES
THROUGH. CLOUDS, AND SOME SHOWERS NORTH, MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. BY MID-MORNING EXPECT NW WINDS TO
PICK UP WITH 10G20-25KTS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP
TO MVFR OR IFR LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS UP. ADJUSTED WINDS DOWN STARTING OUT AS
THE OBS ONLY SHOWING 10-15 KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME UP
LATER TONIGHT W/GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. SWELL IS THERE W/4-5 FT AT 8 SECONDS AND THE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD BY EARLY SUNDAY TO A RANGE OF 4-6 FT W/THE
PERIOD DROPPING BACK TO AROUND 5-6 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA MONDAY
AND REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
405 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM NE CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
SHRTWV THAT WAS SLIDING THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR HELPED SUPPORT A
MESO-LOW LIKE BAND OF PCPN AND WINDS THROUGH SRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW
LEVEL TEMPS WERE WARM ENOUGH SO THAT MAINLY RAIN WAS OBSERVED INTO
P53. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN FARTHER INLAND
SIMILR TO WHAT OCCURRED OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING WHERE A COATING
OF SNOW FELL.
TONIGHT INTO SUN...EXPECT SCT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO CONTINUE FOR NW
FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE ERN CWA WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND
-6C/-15C AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING. 300-310 WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THE PCPN MAINLY FROM P53 EASTWARD. WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO WRLY WITH QUICKLY FALLING
INVERSION HEIGHTS BY 06Z WHICH SHOULD END THE PCPN. MAINLY RAIN
IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SHORE WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INLAND. ANY
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. INLAND...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN WITH FCST MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1K FT...SUNSHINE AND WAA WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO LOWER 50S SUN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS ATTENTION MID TO LATE WEEK AS A STRONG STORMS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN BY MODELS. SEE THE FORECAST FOR MON
THROUGH TUE DETAILS AS CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET.
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT 00Z WED WILL
STRENGTHEN LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND BECOME STACKED OVER A ROUGHLY
990MB SFC OVER KS BY 12Z WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREE
SHOWING THE STACKED LOW MOVING OVER OR JUST S OF THE SRN CWA BY 12Z
THU AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS TO AROUND 982MB. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT...REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES IN LATE THU INTO THU
NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH IT. 850MB TEMPS WILL
FALL FROM AROUND 4C AT 12Z THU TO -4C TO -8C BY 12Z FRI. ADDITIONAL
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO SAT BEHIND
THE REINFORCING TROUGH AS IT MERGES WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM FORMING
A BROAD UPPER LOW. RIDGING LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT SOME POINT LATER IN
THE WEEKEND.
WINDS...INCREASING WINDS ON WED WILL ARC FROM A SE DIRECTION OVER
MOST OF THE CWA TO E-NE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS LATER
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WILL RESULT AS THE LOW PASSES
NEARBY...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK. NW-W GALES AND
WIND ADVISORIES (IN EXPOSED LAND LOCATIONS) WILL DEVELOP LATER THU
AND MORE OR LESS CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT. 925MB WINDS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE 40-50KTS AND WITH MUCH COLDER AIR SURGING
IN...SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MIXING TO THAT LEVEL. THAT THIS TIME
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG GALES. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW
GALES BY SAT MORNING AND CONTINUE TO DROP OFF DURING THE DAY SAT.
PRECIP...RAIN MAY MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TUE NIGHT...BUT MAINLY
NOT UNTIL WED. WED EVENING INTO EARLY WED NIGHT SHOULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN UNDER THE CURRENT MODELED TRACK/TIMING. RAIN CONTINUES
OVER AT LEAST MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...GRADUALLY MIXING WITH SNOW W
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES IN AND ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC
FORCING MOVES IN. COULD SEE SOME THUNDER ON THU AS THE LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD. THU NIGHT WILL SEE SNOW BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS
THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
OVER. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL RESULT IN W-WNW WIND BELTS THU
NIGHT...WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS TURN MORE NW
THROUGH THE DAY FRI...SO THE FAVORED PRECIP BELTS WILL TRANSITION.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD TURN EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
RAIN OVER THE E AND RIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRI AFTERNOON...BUT
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE W WILL SEE SNOW THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE
WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP THEN TAPERS OFF
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CHANGE WITH THE
VOLATILE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THOSE WITH INTERESTS
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. DID ADD SOME LLWS INTO ALL SITES INTO SUN MORNING AS STRONG
WINDS CONTINUE OFF THE SFC. WILL MIX THESE DOWN BY AFTERNOON AND
THIS WILL END THE LLWS AND WINDS WILL GET GUSTY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN LAKES BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS.
AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY...SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS TO 25 KTS REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. E GALES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
LATE THU INTO FRI...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1238 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM NE CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
SHRTWV THAT WAS SLIDING THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR HELPED SUPPORT A
MESO-LOW LIKE BAND OF PCPN AND WINDS THROUGH SRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW
LEVEL TEMPS WERE WARM ENOUGH SO THAT MAINLY RAIN WAS OBSERVED INTO
P53. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN FARTHER INLAND
SIMILR TO WHAT OCCURRED OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING WHERE A COATING
OF SNOW FELL.
TONIGHT INTO SUN...EXPECT SCT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO CONTINUE FOR NW
FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE ERN CWA WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND
-6C/-15C AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING. 300-310 WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THE PCPN MAINLY FROM P53 EASTWARD. WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO WRLY WITH QUICKLY FALLING
INVERSION HEIGHTS BY 06Z WHICH SHOULD END THE PCPN. MAINLY RAIN
IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SHORE WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INLAND. ANY
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. INLAND...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN WITH FCST MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1K FT...SUNSHINE AND WAA WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO LOWER 50S SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MID TO LATE WEEK...
UPPER LEVELS START OUT ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT RIDGE FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. CUTOFF SHORTWAVE DRIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY...BUT SYSTEM IS SO STARVED FOR
MOISTURE PROBABLY WILL NOT EVEN SEE ANY HIGH CLOUDS. MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
50S WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SW-S. MIXING HEIGHTS FORECAST TO BE 2-3KFT
BUT IF THEY END UP HIGHER COULD SEE MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY REACH NEAR
60 DEGREES AT DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF WEST AND CNTRL NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT COULD DIP NEAR FREEZING
AT SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE H8-H7 AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
AHEAD OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH CROSSING WESTERN CONUS AND SFC TROUGH FM
EASTERN CO INTO NORTHERN MN. STRONGEST SFC LOW IN THE TROUGH WITH
MSLP OF 995-1000MB WILL BE OVER CO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. POPS ONLY LOW
CHANCE TUE NIGHT THOUGH AS LIFT IS WEAK AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE
LACKING. MAY EVEN BE SITUATION WHERE DZ OCCURS INSTEAD OF RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS.
ATTN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ON DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER KS/NEB DOWN TO MSLP OF 990-995MB. SETUP AT LEAST FOR MOST OF
DAY APPEARS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT/LARGER SCALE FORCING. SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATER TUE AFTN. SE WINDS MAY
RESULT IN BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY OVER CNTRL CWA DUE TO
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFT. DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SOME
RAIN IN ADDITION TO SE WINDS OFF LK MICHIGAN...TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL STAY NEAR 50 DEGREES. THIS IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER.
WESTERN TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THIS DEEP SYSTEM ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
DEEPENING SFC LOW /FALLING BLO 990MB ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT
MOVES FROM IA TO WI/ LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
DEEP LIFT FM THE STRONG UPPER LOW /12 HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 300M IN 12
HRS/ AND SHARP RIBBON OF 1000-850MB THETA-E/PWATS OVER 1 INCH SHOULD
SUPPORT SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TO NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRYING ALOFT MOVING IN WITH UPPER SYSTEM
OVERNIGHT LEADS TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE
TSRA. DRY SLOT EVENTUALLY SHOULD DIMINISH RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. E-SE WINDS WILL GET GUSTY AS THE DEEPENING SFC LOW
MOVES CLOSER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND OVER EASTERN CWA.
SINCE CORE OF UPPER LOW AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT MOVES ACROSS ON
THURSDAY...KEPT MENTION OF TSRA IN THE MORNING.
GRANTED A LOT CAN CHANGE IN THE MODELS BTWN NOW AND LATER THIS WEEK
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CAUSE THIS LOW IS STILL
OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...BUT ATTM BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF RUNS
SINCE LAST EVENING INDICATE SFC LOW POSSIBLY BLO 980MB CROSSES CNTRL
UPR MICHIGAN THURSDAY. WITH SUCH STRONG LOW OVERHEAD...ATTN ONCE THE
LOW MOVES BY WILL TURN TO COLD AIR ADVECITON AND PROBABLY MORE OF AN
ISSUE...VERY STRONG W-WNW WINDS. SFC LOW WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF LK
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN. THOUGH THE ECWMF IS AROUND 10 MB
WEAKER WITH MSLP CENTER COMPARED TO GFS...WIND FIELDS WITH SYSTEM ARE
SIMILAR. BOTH MODELS SHOW H925 WINDS 50 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR THU
EVENING. WINDS ARE PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE
1000-850MB LAYER SO MIXING SHOULD BE EFFICENT. DO NOT SEE WHY THERE
WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM. INCREASED WINDS OVER
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. RESULT IS A SOLID GALE OVER LK SUPERIOR...LIKELY
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR ADVY LEVEL
WINDS ALONG LK SUPERIOR SHORE FOR AREAS FAVORED BY W-WNW WINDS.
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT APPEARS TO BE REINFORCED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT COLD AIR /H85
TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY ARE AROUND -6C/ TO RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
FOR MUCH OF CWA ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WOULD BE FAVORED FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. STRONG GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS. TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN
THE 30S OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LK
MICHIGAN. TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS NEXT SATURDAY AND SFC LOW MOVES INTO
QUEBEC. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. DID ADD SOME LLWS INTO ALL SITES INTO SUN MORNING AS STRONG
WINDS CONTINUE OFF THE SFC. WILL MIX THESE DOWN BY AFTERNOON AND
THIS WILL END THE LLWS AND WINDS WILL GET GUSTY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN LAKES BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS.
AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY...SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS TO 25 KTS REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. E GALES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
LATE THU INTO FRI...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
358 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND SLIDE OFFSHORE
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST. THE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AND SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 350 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT IS NOW OFFSHORE WITH PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH ANOTHER BATCH
OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COASTAL PLAINS AREA.
EXPECT THE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST NEAR THE COAST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS...THEN A LULL FOR THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THE
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
MAINLY THE COASTAL REGION DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ONLY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 60S AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES INLAND AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND STARTS TO REFORM TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP OMEGA AND
MOISTURE REALLY RAMP UP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A WET MONDAY. EXPECT A WIDE DISPARITY IN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH UPPER 40S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR
FLOODING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MILD TEMPS THROUGH
MIDWEEK THEN COOL AND DRY FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL YIELD A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE
AMPLE LIFT, SUBTROPICAL JET INTERACTION AND A SFC LOW AIDING IN AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF QPF THROUGH TUESDAY.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: THE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE GOM AND SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH. WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...EXPECT A
SHARP GRADIENT OF PRECIP TO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
WITH PLENTY OF WAA ALOFT. CONTINUED LIKELY/CATEGORICAL LIFTING NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY/OVERNIGHT. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP AS A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NWWRD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WILL BEGIN
INTERACTING WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE SE. THIS
BECOMES EVIDENT AS LAYER STREAMLINES TRY TO CONVERGE BUT DO NOT
QUITE SEEM TO PHASE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. MIX RATIOS INC TO +14
G/KG...EXTREMELY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PWATS INC TO AROUND 2
INCHES AND AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR EARLY NOV. MODEL
SOLUTION SHOWING A RANGE IN QPF BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES. WILL FCST
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS WITH 1-2 INCH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THESE VALUES WILL INCREASE AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT. IF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT DOES MATERIALIZES MINOR
FLOODING AND EVENTUAL RIVER FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
KEEP IN MIND THE SPREAD IN LOW TRACK IS QUITE EVIDENT WITH THE NAM
THE FURTHEST WEST ALONG THE PIEDMONT AND THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE
ILLUSTRATING THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL
IMPACT QPF TOTALS, TEMPS AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE WIND. HAVE THE LOW
MOVING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN PUTTING E NC IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
SOME INSTABILITY BUILDING MON AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. HAVE
THUNDER MENTION FOR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES (DOWNEAST CARTERET THROUGH
OBX). ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE POTENTIAL
FLOODING RAIN THREAT DUE TO THE VERY WARM MOIST AIRMASS AND DEEP
WARM LAYER. HIGHS: MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S OBX. LOWS: 60S
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WITH DECREASING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. WILL HANG ONTO LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY AS COLUMN MOISTURE STILL VERY HIGH UNDER WARM/MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS TURN W/NW AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUE EVENING
ENDING RAIN THREAT. THICKNESSES REMAIN HIGH SO TEMPS STILL WARM.
HIGHS: AROUND 70. LOWS: MID 50S INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MAINLY DRY WITH
SUBSIDENCE ENSUING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND BROAD HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH TEMPS AS
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ABOVE
CLIMO. HIGHS: AROUND 70. LOWS: MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: 07/12Z MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. NEXT
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR THUR NIGHT IN PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AT THIS TIME NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DUE
TO THE QUICK RETURN FLOW NOT BEING ABLE TO TAP MOISTURE...THOUGH
WILL HANG ONTO A 20 POP SHOULD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOW MORE THAN
EXPECTED. VERY WARM HIGHS THURSDAY MID 70S AND LOWS LOW 50S/60S.
HIGHS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY BEHIND FRONT IN THE MID 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
WEATHER AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM SUNDAY...ANY IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO AS DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR STARTS TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE AS COLD FRONT LINGERS
OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESURE DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS DIMINISHING LATE SUNDAY
EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...RAIN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
EARLY AS MON MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GOM AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONDITIONS AGAIN LIKELY BECOMING IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND LOW CIGS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES. CLOUDS INCREASE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THOUGH LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...THE PEAK OF THE CAA SURGE BEHIND THE STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH N/NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. SEAS WILL PEAK IN THE 7 TO 10 FOOT RANGE TODAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TONIGHT AS GRADIENT LESSENS...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT STATUS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AS SFC LOW PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF NC BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS (15-25KTS) MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE BEFORE BECOMING NW TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.
SEAS BUILDING 6-8FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AS A RESULT.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW LIFT NORTH AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WED MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONT. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AROUND 10-20
KTS AND FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NW WINDS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS
WILL LIKELY REBOUND BRIEFLY AROUND 4-6FT. SCA HEADLINES ENDING AT
VARIOUS TIMES...WITH CENTRAL WATERS LASTING LONGEST DUE TO LINGERING
HIGH SEAS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...CTC/LEP
MARINE...CTC/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1220 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND END THE STRETCH OF
WARMTH. MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
FOLLOWS THIS BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY AND THEN
HEAVIER RAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MILD WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A LATE THURSDAY COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS STEADILY ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD...PUSHING ONE OF THE WARMEST NOVEMBER AIR MASSES IN
HISTORY OFF TO THE SOUTH. RECORD HIGHS WERE BROKEN IN WILMINGTON
AND NORTH MYRTLE BEACH EARLIER TODAY WITH 84 AND 81 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY. CURRENTLY THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON TO NEAR THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES...TO NEAR CONWAY
AND LAKE CITY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE WIND SHIFT AND ONSET OF COLD
ADVECTION...THE ONSET OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IS LAGGING BY 1-2
HOURS BEHIND THIS INITIAL WIND SHIFT. ONCE THIS OVERSPREADS THE
AREA THERE WILL BE NO DOUBT MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR IS STREAMING IN.
AFTER DECIDING NOT TO RAISE POPS WITH THE 630 PM UPDATE...THE WEAK
LINE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION SUDDENLY BECAME MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE...EXPANDING IN COVERAGE INTO ALMOST A SOLID LINE. SEVERAL
UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST BETWEEN 7-830 PM
ATTEMPTING TO QUICKLY INCREASE POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION. I CANNOT FIND A CLEAR REASON FOR WHY PRECIPITATION
EXPANDED AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONTENT CHANGED LITTLE
THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION INTENSIFIED WELL BEFORE THE FRONT
WAS NEAR THE AREA SUGGESTING LOW-LEVEL TRIGGERS WERE NOT INVOLVED
EITHER. NEAR-TERM MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND RUC WERE EQUALLY BAFFLED.
REGARDLESS...CONVECTION SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL...
NAMELY ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ANALYSIS OF NAM/GFS MODELS SHOWS THIS NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS BEING
GENERATED BY MOISTURE AND MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 305K-310K
THETA SURFACES...APPROXIMATELY 8000-13000 FEET AGL. UPSTREAM RADARS
SHOW ONLY PATCHY AND VERY LIGHT RETURNS OVER GEORGIA...WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY SHOWING TRACE AMOUNTS. AT THE RISK OF MAKING
THE SAME MISTAKE TWICE IN ONE SHIFT...I WILL NOT RAISE POPS LATE
TONIGHT ANTICIPATING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL BE VERY VERY
LIGHT.
WIND GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD REACH 25-30 MPH IN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO
MIX DOWN GUSTS TO 2000 FEET ALOFT. THE GFS MODEL IS GENERALLY
STRONGER WITH WIND SPEEDS AND ACTUALLY SUGGESTS GUSTS COULD REACH 35
MPH NEAR THE COAST IN THE 3-6 AM TIMEFRAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THOUGH SURFACE WEATHER MAP WILL SHOW COLD
FRONT STALLED WELL TO OUR SOUTH A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE GRADIENT AND
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON
SUNDAY. IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM
TIME TO TIME WITH GENTLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THE MAIN SOURCE FOR
LIFT. ON MONDAY THE FRONT WILL DRAW CLOSER TO AND PARALLEL TO THE
COAST WHILE THE COOL WEDGE OVER LAND MAY BE STRENGTHENED AS IT
GETS RAIN-COOLED. WHERE EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL DICTATE
WHO SEES THE MOST RAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN TO BE HAD. THE GFS
FOCUSES THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG THE COAST WHEREAS THE WRF HAS A MUCH
MORE EVEN DISTRIBUTION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF A BLEND
OF THE TWO AS WELL AS SEEMINGLY THE WETTEST AT LEAST OVER THE ILM
CWA. SO WHILE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAINFALL FORECAST ARE TOUGH
TO RULE OUT THE CURRENT EVENT TOTAL WILL RANGE FROM A HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH DARLINGTON/MARLBORO TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH TO ONE INCH ROUGHLY ALONG I-95 BORDERING COUNTIES TO 1-1.5
INCHES COASTAL COUNTIES, AND LIKELY 2 INCHES AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, MAINLY IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONGLY
INTO THE WARM SECTOR WE GET MONDAY NIGHT WE MAY SEE A NON-DIURNAL
CURVE IN TEMPS AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS INSTABILITY IS
MAINTAINED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIP AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING COASTAL LOW/WAVE SHOULD QUICKLY COME
TO AN END AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE REGION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
CEASES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TUE THROUGH THU WITH
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW TUE INTO WED BECOMING AMPLIFIED WED NIGHT
AND THU AHEAD OF STACKED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW
WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED AND THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
ARE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THE FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN
THE EVENING AND THERE MAY BE SOME LIMITED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
AS WELL AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER.
WILL INTRODUCE A SILENT POP THU BUT THINK MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF COLD ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO
TUE-THU WILL DROP BACK NEAR CLIMO FRI...ALTHOUGH HIGHS ARE STILL
LIKELY TO END UP ABOVE CLIMO. SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA MOVES OVER
THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL DROP TEMPS A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMO SAT DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE SOUTHEAST NC AND
NORTHEAST SC COASTS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE
NOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ISOLATED PATCHES
OF -RA LIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL THE MAIN THRUST OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS UNDER N TO NE WINDS AT 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS AOA 25
KT. THESE GUSTY N TO NE WINDS...ONCE THEY COMMENCE...WILL CONTINUE
THRUOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. THE
INLAND TERMINALS KFLO/KLBT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS
IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO MVFR SUNDAY
EVENING DUE TO CEILINGS. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN. GENERALLY VFR
CIGS 4-8K EXPECTED DURING DAYLIGHT SUN. PERIODS OF LIGHT RA MAY
ACCOMPANY THOSE EVENING MVFR CEILINGS SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR MONDAY INTO TUE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM SATURDAY...THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS STEADILY ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. AT 10 PM IT IS SITUATED
ALONG A LINE FROM CAROLINA BEACH THROUGH HOLDEN BEACH...THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST INLAND FROM MYRTLE BEACH. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHERLY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BUT THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
HOURS STILL BEFORE THE SURGE OF MUCH STRONGER WIND ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. ANALYSIS OF UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE HAMPTON ROADS
AREA OF VIRGINIA AND THE NC OUTER BANKS SHOWS MODELS ARE DOING A
PRETTY GOOD JOB WITH WIND SPEEDS...GIVING US AT LEAST SOME SHORT-
TERM CONFIDENCE THAT SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS WILL NOT OCCUR OVER
THE NC/SC COASTAL WATERS. GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY 2-3 FEET BUT SHOULD BUILD VERY RAPIDLY AFTER
THE ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS IN A FEW HOURS. MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE
CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT TO GO DOWNHILL IN A HURRY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LONG FUSED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE AS
NASTY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINES.
SUNDAY`S STRONG GRADIENT A RESULT OF 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE PAIRED WITH SHALLOW
MIXING THEY WILL LIKELY NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE
WATCH. ON MONDAY THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY WILL BACK UP TO THE COAST IF
NOT MOVE JUST INLAND. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN TO ONSHORE. HOW
FAR INLAND THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ITS
RAMIFICATIONS TO THE WIND AND WAVES FORECAST. SHOULD IT REMAIN OVER
THE WATERS THEN CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE IN
THE DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TUE AND WED WILL VEER
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. GRADIENT AT
TIMES ON TUE/WED WILL SUPPORT WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 KT. THIS WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 6 FT AT
TIMES THROUGH WED EVENING. GRADIENT WEAKENS WED NIGHT INTO THU AS
WINDS VEER TO SOUTHERLY. SPEEDS DROP UNDER 10 KT WED NIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE THU MORNING. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 15
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT WITH DIRECTION BECOMING MORE
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN DIRECTION
WILL PRODUCE SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT WED NIGHT AND THU.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1121 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
STRATUS DECK REMAINS OVER MUCH OF SE TX ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT FROM KCLL TO KUTS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE GIVING WAY TO
VFR FOR KCLL/KUTS LATER THIS MORNING. REST OF THE TERMINALS ARE
SOCKED IN WITH IFR/MVFR DECKS AND DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BEGIN TO IMPROVE 10-14Z.
BASED ON HRRR TRENDS AND BUFR NAM SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR CLOSER TO 16-18Z. WINDS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN RAIN AREA WAS EXITING TO THE EAST AT MID EVENING.
HOWEVER...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WAS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FORECASTING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS...ALSO.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE NEXT AREA BY 01Z.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBS SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FOR
KGLS AND KLBX. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL
NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THAT WITH 00Z GUIDANCE COMING OUT IN TIME FOR
THE 06Z TAFS. POSSIBLE THAT CIGS COULD BREAK OUT EARLIER THAN
INDICATED IN THE TAF.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EXPECT THE MODERATE TO LIGHT RAIN TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE THE RAIN CHC END LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING OUT THERE...SO EXPECT ALL THE PRECIP TO BE
SHWRS THIS EVENING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AREAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT ALL THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS
WINDY ALONG THE COAST AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...LIKELY SUBSIDING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY MORNING.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS WILL BEGIN
RETURNING ON TUESDAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
AND INTO WED MORNING. THE NEXT MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHC
OF SHRA/TSTMS ON WED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OF
THE COAST WED EVE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THU AND FRI BEHIND THE
FRONT...THEN MOISTURE RETURNING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. SO WE WILL
REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANGEABLE
SENSIBLE WEATHER. 33
MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS... WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
FLOWING OVER THE WARMER COASTAL WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE /35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS/ TO MIX DOWN TONIGHT AND HAVE
UPGRADED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TO A GALE
WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. ELEVATED WINDS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS... WITH WAVES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
APPROACHING 9 FEET TONIGHT. LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING... BUT THE MAIN HAZARD FOR
MARINERS WILL CERTAINLY BE THE INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES... WITH OFFSHORE WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK... BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 53 65 49 70 57 / 10 10 0 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 55 67 50 73 59 / 20 10 0 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 68 59 70 67 / 20 10 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1045 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...CIGS ARE VARYING FROM 8HFT TO 18HFT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF S TX THIS EVENING. AM EXPECTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND PATCHY
DZ/-RA AT TIMES THROUGH 10Z. FCST SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CIGS AND LESS PRECIP TOWARD 12Z SUN MORNING AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TRIES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NE. THIS TREND IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN WITH VFR CIGS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR VCT...AND LATER AFTERNOON ALI AND CRP.
GUIDANCE PROGS MVFR CIGS...AND POSSIBLY DZ...TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LRD AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WX AND POPS FOR TONIGHT
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. LOWERED THIS EVENINGS POPS TO 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE W TO 10 PERCENT NE WITH A MENTION OF PATCHY -DZ/BR WITH
THE 10 POP. STILL EXPECT BEST CHC FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE
W DUE TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
NEARING THE AREA...BUT JUST NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH AREAL COVERAGE
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. ALSO CHANGED WORDING FROM SHRA TO -RA FOR
THE W CWA. AS FOR PATCHY DZ/BR ACROSS THE NE...DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DESPITE FCST SOUNDINGS PROGGING A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE. BASED ON MSAS
ANALYSIS/RADAR/OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE
TO THE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...LATEST OBS ARE REPORTING LIGHT FOG AROUND VCT AND
FARTHER NE. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WITH THE
DZ. THE FCST SOUNDING FOR THE NE CWA OVERNIGHT SHOWS A SLIGHT
DRYING AND MODELS PROG DEWPOINTS TO LOWER...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ENOUGH DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE
BEFORE 12Z SUN TO END THE PATCHY DZ/BR. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND THE MENTION OF PATCHY DZ/BR THROUGH EARLY SUN
MORNING. REST OF FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGHER POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE W CWA DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND A WEAK SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA PER WV SATELLITE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER TODAY. RESIDUAL -RA WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF S TX MUCH OF TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCT BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IMPROVING FROM NE TO S AND SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF S TX SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL
TROUGH/LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NE MX COAST AND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE HEADING INTO
TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL OCCUR. DESPITE
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SFC TO H85...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN STILL
REMAINS UNSEASONABLY MOIST /PWAT VALUES THIS MORNING WERE 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/. MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 300K LAYER IS PROG TO OCCUR ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...A MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN COAHUILA MX AND SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING. COMBINATION OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THE DPVA...AND A
H25 JET OVERHEAD...SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THE 18Z NAM...12ZGFS/GEM/TTU
WRF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS OUTPUT WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF AND SOME RUNS OF THE RAP BRING DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FARTHER SOUTH AND THUS KEEP THE CWA MAINLY DRY TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF THE LATTER OCCURRING...HAVE GONE WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN CWA RATHER THAN THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES. NE COUNTIES WILL HAVE LOWEST
POTENTIAL OF SEEING ADDITIONAL PRECIP WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL BE THE WEAKEST. ASIDE FROM PRECIP...STRATUS IS PROG TO
THICKEN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW PEAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM PORT ARANSAS TO SEADRIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD NOT FALL TOO MUCH FROM CURRENT TEMPS...THOUGH IF
ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THEN
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP MAY KNOCK
TEMPS BELOW CURRENTLY FORECAST MINS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN
CWA...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. DESPITE A RATHER POTENT
H5 S/W TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS AND A STRONGER H25 JET NOSING INTO
THE AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PROG TO BE MUCH DRIER TOMORROW AND
THUS ONLY EXPECTING CLOUD COVER FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING MAY TRY TO OCCUR BY LATE IN THE DAY SUN WITH
MAX TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER OR NOT ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT /ESPECIALLY NE
COUNTIES/ BEFORE LLVL MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE ECMWF/GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WL ENTER THE WEST COAST BY
MONDAY AND THE SWRN CONUS TUESDAY...THEN ACRS TEXAS/SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA. EXPECT
ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE DRG THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM. GFS DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS PWAT
VALUES OVER THE CWA/MSA TO INCREASE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MSTR/UPPER DYNAMICS/ SFC FRONT WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY. DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS THE FOREGOING UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ANTICIPATED AFTER FROPA OVER THE MSA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A COASTAL
TROUGH FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC PLACES THE
CWA/MSA NEAR THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. FURTHER...THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC)
INCREASES MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WL FCST ISOLD
SHOWER ACTIVITY (THE GFS DETERMINISTIC MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT
CIN/POSITIVE LI VALUES) FRIDAY/SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY OVER THE
CWA/MSA.
MARINE...STRONG TO VERY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREA BAYS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND NEAR/OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY SUN. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 61 70 58 75 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 57 68 50 73 61 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 57 66 57 74 65 / 30 20 10 10 10
ALICE 60 69 55 76 63 / 20 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 61 69 57 73 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 57 66 55 72 61 / 20 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 62 69 56 75 64 / 20 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 63 70 60 73 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
TE/81...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1010 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AROUND 15Z FOR ALL SITES WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 TO 30KTS. THEN AROUND 00Z THE WINDS WILL CALM TO 15KTS OR
LESS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA...JUST SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT TIMES BUT CEILINGS WILL BE WELL ABOVE MVFR HEIGHTS.
BEAT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT
SOME CLOUDS TO COME INTO KAMA AND KDHT AROUND 07Z TO 10Z BUT NOT
EXPECTING THESE TO DROP CONDITIONS INTO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE UNDER
10KTS FOR ALL SITES UNTIL 15Z WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP AND
GUST TO 25 TO 30KTS.
BEAT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS
COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NAM 850 MB TEMPS 12Z TODAY AROUND 5
DEGREES CELSIUS AT AMARILLO OR 41 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WITH A MIN
TEMPS THIS MORNING OF 34 DEGREES. NAM 850 MB TEMP 12Z SUNDAY OF 4
DEGREES CELSIUS OR 39 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...WITH PROJECTED MIN TEMP
SUNDAY MORNING OF 32 DEGREES. DID HAVE SOME LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WHICH HELPED TO KEEP MIN TEMPS A BIT WARMER THIS
MORNING. CAVEAT WILL BE ANY POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER HRRR NOT FORECASTING ANY LOW CLOUDS OR ANY OTHER
CLOUDS BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z SUNDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. NAM AND GFS ALSO KEEPING
SKIES CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. PROVIDED THAT CLOUDS
DO NOT DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...EXPECTING MIN TEMPS SUNDAY
MORNING TO BE NEAR 32 DEGREES OR SO FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THEN FROM SHERMAN COUNTY SOUTH TO RANDALL
COUNTY WITH MAINLY 33 TO 36 DEGREES SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE.
THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALSO TEMPS TODAY SOME 3 TO 7
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH DEW POINT TEMPS
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE VERY SHALLOW AND SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO DROP.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
NEXT TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE
PANHANDLES...THEREFORE FEEL DRY BUT WINDY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GFS AND DOES CLIP THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
BRIEF WRAP AROUND PRECIP. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
COULD POSSIBLY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
FORECAST NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING SHARPLY
COLDER BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
ROBERTS...WHEELER.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BEAVER...TEXAS.
&&
$$
16/8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
313 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS IS A COLD WEATHER
SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4000 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...BUT COOL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:55 AM PST SUNDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH MENDOCINO COUNTY AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY BY SUNRISE. THE COLD-FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS
THEN PROJECTED TO REACH SAN FRANCISCO BY MID MORNING...SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND REACH THE MONTEREY BAY
AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THE IMPRESSIVE
ON SATELLITE OR RADAR AT THE PRESENT TIME...BUT THERE IS A PRETTY
DECENT MOISTURE PLUME FLOWING IN FROM THE WSW ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.2 INCHES. SO IT
SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING ANYWHERE FROM A
TENTH TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PLACES THE GREATEST RAIN
TOTALS TODAY ACROSS MARIN...SAN FRANCISCO..AND CONTRA COSTA
COUNTIES WHERE A THIRD TO A HALF INCH ARE FORECAST. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
OVERALL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIP
ACTION THIS EVENING BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY PICKS UP LATE TONIGHT
WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AND A COLD UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE
COAST...AND THEN OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY WILL AFFECT BOTH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON COMMUTES AND MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT AT TIMES. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO DRAW ATTENTION TO THE
EXPECTED IMPACTS OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM.
THIS INCOMING SYSTEM...WHILE NOT AS WET AS THE ONE A WEEK
BEFORE...IS COLDER. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS
4000 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO NEAR 3000 FEET IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED...BUT A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON
HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 4000 FEET.
MODEL QPF IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE-
QUARTER AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ON MONDAY EVENING AND END MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY TUESDAY...BUT THE COOL AIRMASS
WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA FOR A FEW DAYS...PROBABLY RESULTING IN A
FEW NIGHTS OF PATCHY FROST IN THE INLAND VALLEYS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE LATER IN THE
WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT
WEEKEND...AND HAVE ADDED RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP RAIN BY A COUPLE
OF DAYS AND SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:10 AM PST SUNDAY...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECTING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS AS A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM
THE NW WITH SHOWERS TODAY. THERE`S A GREATER CHANCE FOR MODERATE
TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES EVEN FURTHER. FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT WINDS. MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS...SOME COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOCAL IFR EARLY/MID
MORNING THEN CIGS LIKELY LIFTING TO MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 2:20 AM PST SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL CREATE UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
CAUSING HEAVIER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL WILL ARRIVE TODAY RESULTING IN BUILDING SEAS AND LARGER
BREAKING WAVES AT THE COAST.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
255 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS IS A COLD WEATHER
SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4000 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...BUT COOL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:55 AM PST SUNDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH MENDOCINO COUNTY AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY BY SUNRISE. THE COLD-FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS
THEN PROJECTED TO REACH SAN FRANCISCO BY MID MORNING...SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND REACH THE MONTEREY BAY
AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THE IMPRESSIVE
ON SATELLITE OR RADAR AT THE PRESENT TIME...BUT THERE IS A PRETTY
DECENT MOISTURE PLUME FLOWING IN FROM THE WSW ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.2 INCHES. SO IT
SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING ANYWHERE FROM A
TENTH TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PLACES THE GREATEST RAIN
TOTALS TODAY ACROSS MARIN...SAN FRANCISCO..AND CONTRA COSTA
COUNTIES WHERE A THIRD TO A HALF INCH ARE FORECAST. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
OVERALL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIP
ACTION THIS EVENING BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY PICKS UP LATE TONIGHT
WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AND A COLD UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE
COAST...AND THEN OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY WILL AFFECT BOTH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON COMMUTES AND MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT AT TIMES. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO DRAW ATTENTION TO THE
EXPECTED IMPACTS OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM.
THIS INCOMING SYSTEM...WHILE NOT AS WET AS THE ONE A WEEK
BEFORE...IS COLDER. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS
4000 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO NEAR 3000 FEET IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED...BUT A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON
HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 4000 FEET.
MODEL QPF IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE-
QUARTER AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ON MONDAY EVENING AND END MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY TUESDAY...BUT THE COOL AIRMASS
WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA FOR A FEW DAYS...PROBABLY RESULTING IN A
FEW NIGHTS OF PATCHY FROST IN THE INLAND VALLEYS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE LATER IN THE
WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT
WEEKEND...AND HAVE ADDED RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP RAIN BY A COUPLE
OF DAYS AND SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:52 PM PST SATURDAY...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST...OTHERWISE VFR LATE THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS ARRIVING SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. THE
COLDEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE`VE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NW.
VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT WINDS. VFR/MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS SUNDAY.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...INCREASING LOW CLOUDS. LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:46 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. A LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL
ARRIVES LATER TODAY RESULTING IN BUILDING SEAS AND LARGER BREAKING
WAVES AT THE COAST. A COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...HEAVIEST SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CW/CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1005 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
.UPDATE...
LIKE YESTERDAY, MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. PWATS HAVE COME DOWN
SLIGHTLY AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ARRIVING AT H7 MAY LEAD TO LESS
COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY. NAM/GFS ADVERTISING A DRY FORECAST
BECAUSE OF THIS LAYER WHEREAS THE HRRR SOLUTION MIMICS SATURDAY`S.
THUS, POPS WILL BE FORECASTED IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO DIFFERING
EXTREMES. WITH FAVORABLE H5 TEMPS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF
COAST AND LAKE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, BUT MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AND
ALONG THE GULF COAST, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE ATLANTIC COAST
LOOKS MOSTLY QUIET TODAY, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.
FOR KAPF, SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AREA. HAVE KEPT THE VCTS FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. IN
ADDITION A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF CONVECTION IN
THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO AND THE HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO TRACK
TO THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY WHILE THE LOW IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEAST GULF. MEANWHILE THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH NEAR HISPANIOLA
IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST AND COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS THIS EVENING.
FOR TODAY...ALL THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL LEAD TO
SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...PARTLY DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH NEAR HISPANIOLA, CONTINUING
AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN NORTHERN FLORIDA MIGHT BE IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING BUT IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THAT. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WARM TODAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SUPPLY AND GENERAL INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AROUND THE LAKE REGION AND
WESTERN INTERIOR. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.
FOR MONDAY...AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWEST
THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT COULD BE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
AND MIGHT DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW. THIS SCENARIO WOULD CONTINUE
TO FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND AGAIN BRING SOME
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO START RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION IS LESSENED BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
INTERIOR REGIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TUESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE
NOW FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
BUT AGAIN LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARMER MID-LEVELS WILL NOT
FAVOR ACTIVE CONVECTION BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ONLY
FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR REGIONS.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BY WEDNESDAY A DRYING TREND IS IN
STORE WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR PENINSULA ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW
70. HIGHER PRESSURE AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS TODAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NORTHERLY WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE GULF
STREAM WITH GULF STREAM SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET.
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 78 89 75 / 20 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 78 87 76 / 30 20 30 20
MIAMI 88 77 88 76 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 92 74 88 74 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE....21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
709 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND SLIDE OFFSHORE
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST. THE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AND SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM SUNDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES...BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS
ENDED BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS THROUGH THE DAY. A TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THE 3KM
HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
MAINLY THE COASTAL REGION DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY
A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 60S AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES INLAND AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND STARTS TO REFORM TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP OMEGA AND
MOISTURE REALLY RAMP UP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A WET MONDAY. EXPECT A WIDE DISPARITY IN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH UPPER 40S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR
FLOODING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MILD TEMPS THROUGH
MIDWEEK THEN COOL AND DRY FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL YIELD A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE
AMPLE LIFT, SUBTROPICAL JET INTERACTION AND A SFC LOW AIDING IN AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF QPF THROUGH TUESDAY.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: THE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE GOM AND SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH. WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...EXPECT A
SHARP GRADIENT OF PRECIP TO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
WITH PLENTY OF WAA ALOFT. CONTINUED LIKELY/CATEGORICAL LIFTING NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY/OVERNIGHT. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP AS A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NWWRD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WILL BEGIN
INTERACTING WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE SE. THIS
BECOMES EVIDENT AS LAYER STREAMLINES TRY TO CONVERGE BUT DO NOT
QUITE SEEM TO PHASE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. MIX RATIOS INC TO +14
G/KG...EXTREMELY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PWATS INC TO AROUND 2
INCHES AND AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR EARLY NOV. MODEL
SOLUTION SHOWING A RANGE IN QPF BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES. WILL FCST
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS WITH 1-2 INCH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THESE VALUES WILL INCREASE AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT. IF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT DOES MATERIALIZES MINOR
FLOODING AND EVENTUAL RIVER FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
KEEP IN MIND THE SPREAD IN LOW TRACK IS QUITE EVIDENT WITH THE NAM
THE FURTHEST WEST ALONG THE PIEDMONT AND THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE
ILLUSTRATING THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL
IMPACT QPF TOTALS, TEMPS AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE WIND. HAVE THE LOW
MOVING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN PUTTING E NC IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
SOME INSTABILITY BUILDING MON AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. HAVE
THUNDER MENTION FOR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES (DOWNEAST CARTERET THROUGH
OBX). ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE POTENTIAL
FLOODING RAIN THREAT DUE TO THE VERY WARM MOIST AIRMASS AND DEEP
WARM LAYER. HIGHS: MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S OBX. LOWS: 60S
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WITH DECREASING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. WILL HANG ONTO LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY AS COLUMN MOISTURE STILL VERY HIGH UNDER WARM/MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS TURN W/NW AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUE EVENING
ENDING RAIN THREAT. THICKNESSES REMAIN HIGH SO TEMPS STILL WARM.
HIGHS: AROUND 70. LOWS: MID 50S INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MAINLY DRY WITH
SUBSIDENCE ENSUING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND BROAD HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH TEMPS AS
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ABOVE
CLIMO. HIGHS: AROUND 70. LOWS: MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: 07/12Z MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. NEXT
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR THUR NIGHT IN PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AT THIS TIME NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DUE
TO THE QUICK RETURN FLOW NOT BEING ABLE TO TAP MOISTURE...THOUGH
WILL HANG ONTO A 20 POP SHOULD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOW MORE THAN
EXPECTED. VERY WARM HIGHS THURSDAY MID 70S AND LOWS LOW 50S/60S.
HIGHS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY BEHIND FRONT IN THE MID 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
WEATHER AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SUNDAY...WITH GOOD MIXING BEHIND COLD FRONT...CEILINGS
HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES.
SHOULD SEE N/NE WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY DIMINISHING
BY THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST.
BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR STATUS TOWARD MORNING WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS...BUT THINK ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...RAIN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
EARLY AS MON MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GOM AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONDITIONS AGAIN LIKELY BECOMING IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND LOW CIGS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES. CLOUDS INCREASE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THOUGH LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 AM SUNDAY...GUSTY N/NE WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 33 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND 29 KNOTS AT CAPE LOOKOUT.
THE PEAK OF THE CAA SURGE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR
THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL PEAK IN THE 7 TO 10 FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TONIGHT AS GRADIENT LESSENS...BUT SEAS
WILL REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT STATUS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AS SFC LOW PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF NC BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS (15-25KTS) MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE BEFORE BECOMING NW TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.
SEAS BUILDING 6-8FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AS A RESULT.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW LIFT NORTH AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WED MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONT. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AROUND 10-20
KTS AND FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NW WINDS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS
WILL LIKELY REBOUND BRIEFLY AROUND 4-6FT. SCA HEADLINES ENDING AT
VARIOUS TIMES...WITH CENTRAL WATERS LASTING LONGEST DUE TO LINGERING
HIGH SEAS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...CTC/LEP
MARINE...CTC/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
945 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS IS A COLD
WEATHER SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4000 FEET BY MONDAY
MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...BUT COOL WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA BY NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:19 AM PST SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
TO MORNING PACKAGE. RADAR IS PICKING UP RETURNS OVER THE NORTH BAY
AND WEST OF THE GOLDEN GATE WITH LIGHT RAIN REPORTED AT SANTA
ROSA. THE MESOWEST NETWORK SHOWS MOST OF THE NORTH BAY HAVING
RECEIVED A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH SO FAR. HIGHEST REPORT SO
FAR IS 0.20 OUT AT POINT REYES.
SO FRONT IS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK AS ADVERTISED WITH LIGHT RAIN
NOW REACHING THE BAY AREA. INITIAL BOUNDARY WAS NEVER EXPECTED TO
BE OVERLY WET JUST SOME NUISANCE LIGHT RAIN FOR YOUR SUNDAY
ACTIVITIES. THE 12Z OAKLAND SOUNDING SHOWS ONLY 0.56 TPW MEASURED.
HOWEVER SATELLITE DATA SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD TONGUE OF MOISTURE
STILL POINTED AT BODEGA BAY WITH 15:35Z BLENDED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING UPWARDS OF 1.2 INCHES TPW JUST OFF THE COAST. SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKS EVENT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THE COAST WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...BELIEVE IT WILL TAP INTO THIS PLUME
AND BRING SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO THE BAY AREA ON MONDAY
WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND BEST DYNAMICS PASS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
OCCUR WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. SO UPSHOT
OF ALL THIS IS TO EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY FOR
THE GREATER BAY AREA THAT WONT REACH THE CENTRAL COAST REGIONS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN
OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWER THREAT CONTINUING. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS MONDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. BOTH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED ON MONDAY
BY THE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED WET ROADS.
SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AND MILD AFTERNOONS TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME COLD NIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE
AWAY FROM THE BAY. WILL BE WATCHING 12Z RUNS FOR NEXT SYSTEM LATER
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:55 AM PST SUNDAY...THE COLD-FRONTAL
RAIN BAND IS THEN PROJECTED TO REACH SAN FRANCISCO BY MID
MORNING...SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND REACH THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK ALL
THE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE OR RADAR AT THE PRESENT TIME...BUT
THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT MOISTURE PLUME FLOWING IN FROM THE WSW
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.2
INCHES. SO IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PLACES THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS TODAY ACROSS MARIN...SAN FRANCISCO..AND
CONTRA COSTA COUNTIES WHERE A THIRD TO A HALF INCH ARE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT
STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIP
ACTION THIS EVENING BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY PICKS UP LATE TONIGHT
WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AND A COLD UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE
COAST...AND THEN OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY WILL AFFECT BOTH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON COMMUTES AND MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT AT TIMES. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO DRAW ATTENTION TO THE
EXPECTED IMPACTS OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM.
THIS INCOMING SYSTEM...WHILE NOT AS WET AS THE ONE A WEEK
BEFORE...IS COLDER. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS
4000 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO NEAR 3000 FEET IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED...BUT A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON
HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 4000 FEET.
MODEL QPF IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE-
QUARTER AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ON MONDAY EVENING AND END MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY TUESDAY...BUT THE COOL AIRMASS
WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA FOR A FEW DAYS...PROBABLY RESULTING IN A
FEW NIGHTS OF PATCHY FROST IN THE INLAND VALLEYS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE LATER IN THE
WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT
WEEKEND...AND HAVE ADDED RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP RAIN BY A COUPLE
OF DAYS AND SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST SUNDAY...RADAR SHOWS RAIN ON THE
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT WILL GO THROUGH OUR AREA.
LATEST TAF PACKAGE IS ONLY A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE WITH START TIMES OF RAIN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED. RAIN CHANGES
TO SHOWERS LATER. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...RAIN FORECAST TO START BETWEEN 1830 AND 19Z
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. RAIN SWITCHED TO SHOWERS
22 TO 23Z. WINDS OF 130 TO 160 SWITCH TO 230 TO 260 AFTER 22Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...RAIN TO MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS AFTER
22Z WITH CIGS FORECAST TO ALTERNATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. RAIN TO
SHOWERS AFTER 0Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PST SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL CREATE UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY CAUSING HEAVIER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND THERE`S A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. LONG PERIOD
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
919 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS IS A COLD
WEATHER SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4000 FEET BY MONDAY
MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...BUT COOL WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA BY NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:19 AM PST SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
TO MORNING PACKAGE. RADAR IS PICKING UP RETURNS OVER THE NORTH BAY
AND WEST OF THE GOLDEN GATE WITH LIGHT RAIN REPORTED AT SANTA
ROSA. THE MESOWEST NETWORK SHOWS MOST OF THE NORTH BAY HAVING
RECEIVED A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH SO FAR. HIGHEST REPORT SO
FAR IS 0.20 OUT AT POINT REYES.
SO FRONT IS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK AS ADVERTISED WITH LIGHT RAIN
NOW REACHING THE BAY AREA. INITIAL BOUNDARY WAS NEVER EXPECTED TO
BE OVERLY WET JUST SOME NUISANCE LIGHT RAIN FOR YOUR SUNDAY
ACTIVITIES. THE 12Z OAKLAND SOUNDING SHOWS ONLY 0.56 TPW MEASURED.
HOWEVER SATELLITE DATA SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD TONGUE OF MOISTURE
STILL POINTED AT BODEGA BAY WITH 15:35Z BLENDED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING UPWARDS OF 1.2 INCHES TPW JUST OFF THE COAST. SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKS EVENT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THE COAST WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...BELIEVE IT WILL TAP INTO THIS PLUME
AND BRING SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO THE BAY AREA ON MONDAY
WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND BEST DYNAMICS PASS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
OCCUR WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. SO UPSHOT
OF ALL THIS IS TO EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY FOR
THE GREATER BAY AREA THAT WONT REACH THE CENTRAL COAST REGIONS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN
OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWER THREAT CONTINUING. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS MONDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. BOTH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED ON MONDAY
BY THE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED WET ROADS.
SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AND MILD AFTERNOONS TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME COLD NIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE
AWAY FROM THE BAY. WILL BE WATCHING 12Z RUNS FOR NEXT SYSTEM LATER
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:55 AM PST SUNDAY...THE COLD-FRONTAL
RAIN BAND IS THEN PROJECTED TO REACH SAN FRANCISCO BY MID
MORNING...SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND REACH THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK ALL
THE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE OR RADAR AT THE PRESENT TIME...BUT
THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT MOISTURE PLUME FLOWING IN FROM THE WSW
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.2
INCHES. SO IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PLACES THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS TODAY ACROSS MARIN...SAN FRANCISCO..AND
CONTRA COSTA COUNTIES WHERE A THIRD TO A HALF INCH ARE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT
STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIP
ACTION THIS EVENING BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY PICKS UP LATE TONIGHT
WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AND A COLD UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE
COAST...AND THEN OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY WILL AFFECT BOTH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON COMMUTES AND MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT AT TIMES. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO DRAW ATTENTION TO THE
EXPECTED IMPACTS OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM.
THIS INCOMING SYSTEM...WHILE NOT AS WET AS THE ONE A WEEK
BEFORE...IS COLDER. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS
4000 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO NEAR 3000 FEET IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED...BUT A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON
HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 4000 FEET.
MODEL QPF IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE-
QUARTER AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ON MONDAY EVENING AND END MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY TUESDAY...BUT THE COOL AIRMASS
WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA FOR A FEW DAYS...PROBABLY RESULTING IN A
FEW NIGHTS OF PATCHY FROST IN THE INLAND VALLEYS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE LATER IN THE
WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT
WEEKEND...AND HAVE ADDED RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP RAIN BY A COUPLE
OF DAYS AND SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:10 AM PST SUNDAY...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECTING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS AS A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM
THE NW WITH SHOWERS TODAY. THERE`S A GREATER CHANCE FOR MODERATE
TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES EVEN FURTHER. FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT WINDS. MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS...SOME COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOCAL IFR EARLY/MID
MORNING THEN CIGS LIKELY LIFTING TO MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PST SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL CREATE UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY CAUSING HEAVIER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND THERE`S A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. LONG PERIOD
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
222 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE IS PLAYING IT
CLOSE TO THE VEST AS TO WHAT IT WILL FINALLY PERMIT TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION-WISE. LATEST HRRR MODEL NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC BUT DOES
SPIT OUT GREATEST POP CHANCES NORTH OF I-4 LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MAY
HAVE TO ADJUST POP GRIDS BEFORE SENDING OUT ZONE PACKAGE LATER
TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL AND
IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE BACK NORTH TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN
THE NORTHEAST GULF ADVANCES TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
KEEP ECFL IN THE WARM SECTOR.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST DEEP MOISTURE ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR COVERAGE WARNING AREA THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
REMAIN RATHER POOR. SURFACE HEATING AND INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY BE OUR BEST BET FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
STILL WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAIN THREATS FROM HEAVIER CELLS
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING. CELL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS EVENING WITH POP CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
OUR ESE/SE SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE MILD AND MAINLY IN THE
L70S...EXCEPT SOME U60S POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR IN NORMALLY
COOLER LOCATIONS. WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME M70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS KEEN ON DEVELOPING SOME
PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE COAST
SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THIS.
MON...WHILE THE PREVIOUS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW STILL LINGERS NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY. OUR
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN S/SE WITH NEAR RECORD/RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FORECAST. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL EXIST FOR THIS DAY WITH A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF WE HAVE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO
REALIZE FORECAST POPS. GREATEST CHANCES AGAIN WILL EXIST NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE COVERAGE WARNING AREA.
MON NIGHT-TUE...FRONT IS FORECAST TO EASE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA AND
REACH SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TUE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE QUITE HIGH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. SOME CONVECTION FROM MON AFTERNOON BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS MAY LINGER INTO MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. THEN ON TUE THE HIGHEST POPS WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN THE
SOUTH HALF WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST DURING PEAK HEATING.
OKEECHOBEE BOUNDARY EFFECTS MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS
TO THE TREASURE COAST.
WED-SUN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA EARLY WED. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FRI BUT
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TOO WEAK AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE ANY
POPS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FOLLOWING THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN RECENT ONES. SO EVEN THOUGH
THE FRONTS WILL NOT BE BRINGING ANY REAL COLD AIR DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES...THE TREND LOOKS TO BE TOWARDS HIGHS AND LOWS
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY NEXT SATURDAY. DRYING LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE MENTION OF POPS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BUT CONVECTION OFF TO A SLOW
START EVEN WITH AMPLE SURFACE HEATING. SOME WARMER/DRIER AIR ALOFT
SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONT (ACROSS N/C FL) MAY BE IN PART TO
BLAME...AS WELL AS WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STILL FEEL SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CHANCES EXIST THRU EARLY EVENING...GREATEST RISK
KMCO NORTHWARD. SHOWER CHANCES DECREASE THRU THE EVENING BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT ENTIRELY AN ISOLD SHRA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD KEEPING CENTRAL FL IN THE
WARM SECTOR WITH LIGHT SERLY WINDS. HAVE ADDED SOME MVFR VSBY`S FOR
AFT 08Z-09Z IN SOME OF OUR MAINLY INTERIOR TAFS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR IFR VSBY`S AND LOW STRATUS LATE OVERNIGHT AND
UPDATE/AMEND ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.MARINE...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FL FORECAST TO ADVANCE BACK NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT. ESE/SE WINDS WILL DOMINATE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS...15 KTS WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS 2-3 FT
VERY NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD LATE
TO 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-6 FT WELL OFFSHORE/CAPE NORTHWARD.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS LATE TONIGHT OFFSHORE FOR NORTH OF THE CAPE.
AN 8 SECOND ENE LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES TO PERSIST.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
POTENTIALLY MOVING OFFSHORE ALL NORTH OF THE CAPE. ISOLD-SCT SHRA`S
ELSEWHERE.
MON...SE WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS...THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED (CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS FOR SEAS OFFSHORE) WITH PRESENCE OF
THE PERSISTENT SWELL COMPONENT.
TUE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
AND LEAD TO WEST FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST. SOME EAST SWELL WILL
BE LINGERING...KEEPING SEAS 3-5 FEET...BUT WINDS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN
AFTERNOON SOUTH BREVARD TO THE TREASURE COAST.
WED-FRI...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS IS INDICATED WED BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT SPEEDS ARE FORECAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE WATERS THU AND PROVIDE GOOD
BOATING CONDITIONS. A WEAKENING FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH ON
FRI AND POSSIBLY KICK UP NORTHERLY WINDS TO 10-15 KNOTS BY FRI
NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...ORLANDO HAS AT LEAST TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY
WITH VERO BEACH AND MELBOURNE COMING VERY CLOSE TO THEIR RECORDS.
MELBOURNE AND VERO BEACH ARE FORECAST TO BREAK THEIR RECORD HIGHS
FOR MONDAY.
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY NOV 8 AND FOR MON NOV 9...
DAB 8-NOV 88 1946 9-NOV85 1986
MCO 8-NOV 89 1928 9-NOV90 1911
MLB 8-NOV 89 1943 9-NOV86 1975
VRB 8-NOV 89 1996 9-NOV86 1989
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 72 83 71 81 / 50 40 30 20
MCO 72 86 72 85 / 30 40 30 20
MLB 75 87 73 86 / 20 40 30 30
VRB 73 87 72 87 / 20 30 30 30
LEE 73 84 71 83 / 50 50 30 20
SFB 72 86 72 84 / 40 40 30 20
ORL 72 86 72 84 / 30 40 30 20
FPR 74 87 72 87 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....LASCODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
417 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...BREEZY SW
WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN
HIGH PRES OVER OH/PA AND A TROUGH INTO THE WRN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI WITH LOWER READINGS AROUND 50 DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MIXING WITH PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID 30S...ESPECIALLY IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS WHERE READINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 40.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH VALUES AT LEAST AS
HIGH OR SLIGHTY HIGHER THAN TODAY AS 925-900 MB TEMPS CLIMB. SO...
EXPECT TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
...LATE WEEK STORM TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SOME SNOW...
ATTN IS SQUARELY ON STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE SYSTEM...BOTH AHEAD OF THE LOW AND AGAIN
BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. COLDER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE LOW ALONG WITH
ARRIVAL OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT/MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. ALL AREAS WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS ON
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE NEXT WEEKEND...THEN BIG DIFFERENCES OCCUR
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR WHAT OCCURS JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED DAYS 8-
10. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH TROUGHS/RIDGES...SO
NO NEED TO STRAY FM CONSENSUS ATTM.
BACK TO EARLY THIS WEEK. CONDITIONS APPEAR TRANQUIL UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OFF OF PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY TUESDAY THEN HEADS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WELL AGREED UPON BY MODELS TRACKS TO
CENTRAL KS BY THAT TIME. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE LOW...MAINLY IN THE H8-H7 LAYER...BUT IT REMAINS DRY BLO CLOUD
BASE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT POPS
STAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE. LATER WED AFTN INTO WED EVENING PVA AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT 295-305K
SFCS /H85-H6/ SHOULD SUPPORT WIDEPSREAD SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS /12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OVER 250M/ DRY SLOT ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR TSRA AS SHOWN BY SI/S NEAR ZERO. THOUGH COVERAGE OF
SHRA DECREASES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...CORE OF COLDEST
AIR ALOFT WITH UPR LOW CENTER COULD LEAD TO SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA.
KEPT MENTION OF TSRA IN UNTIL SI/S START RISING WELL ABOVE ZERO.
SFC LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FM NORTHERN OR NORTHEAST WI ON THURSDAY
MORNING TO NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN/EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY EARLY AFTN.
ECMWF FARTHER WEST WITH TRACK OF LOW COMPARED TO GFS AND GEM-NH.
ONCE THE LOW CROSSES EAST OF CWA ON THURSDAY AFTN...EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NW AND BEGIN INCREASING. TRACK OF LOW AND SPEED OF LOW
WILL HAVE LARGE BEARING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS INCREASE IN WIND OCCURS.
WITH A FARTHER EAST TRACK TO THE LOW IN GFS/ECMWF COMPARED TO RECENT
MODEL RUNS...WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG ACROSS LK SUPERIOR INTO THU
NIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT 35-40 KTS IN MIXED LAYER THOUGH...SO GUSTS
NEAR THE SHORE WOULD STILL BE NEAR ADVY.
ONCE COLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL BE
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MORE MIXING AND GALES OVER LK SUPERIOR WITH
ADVY WINDS /45+ MPH GUSTS/ NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE. GUSTS OVER LAND
IN THE 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ATTN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WILL ALSO BE ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WESTERN CWA. EXTENT
OF COLD AIR IS BECOMING MORE IN QUESTION THOUGH...RESULTING IN NOT
AS CLEAR CUT AS LAKE ENHANCED SCENARIO AS IT APPEARED 24 HR AGO.
MAIN ISSUE IS SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTN
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW THE WAVE DIGGING FARTHER
SOUTH AND THEREFORE ARE WARMER OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND UPR
MICHIGAN /H85 TEMPS AROUND -3C VERSUS THE GFS SHOWING AVG OF -7C/.
EITHER SCENARIO IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT BUT ECMWF AND
GEM-NH WOULD RESULT IN MORE MARGINAL SETUP FOR MUCH SNOWFALL. SINCE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE STILL OVER PACIFIC...PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THINGS TO CHANGE...SO WILL NOT CHANGE GOING FORECAST TOO MUCH. BUT
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL ALSO NOT MENTION THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. AS WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
LLWS TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING AT CMX AND SAW. WITH WINDS
REMAINING GUSTY AT IWD TONIGHT...LLWS WAS NOT INCLUDED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
AS HIGH PRES OVER OH/[A CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST...SW
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY. SRLY WINDS AOB 20 KNOTS MON INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH E
GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
352 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...BREEZY SW
WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN
HIGH PRES OVER OH/PA AND A TROUGH INTO THE WRN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI WITH LOWER READINGS AROUND 50 DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MIXING WITH PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID 30S...ESPECIALLY IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS WHERE READINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 40.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH VALUES AT LEAST AS
HIGH OR SLIGHTY HIGHER THAN TODAY AS 925-900 MB TEMPS CLIMB. SO...
EXPECT TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS ATTENTION MID TO LATE WEEK AS A STRONG STORMS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN BY MODELS. SEE THE FORECAST FOR MON
THROUGH TUE DETAILS AS CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET.
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT 00Z WED WILL
STRENGTHEN LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND BECOME STACKED OVER A ROUGHLY
990MB SFC OVER KS BY 12Z WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREE
SHOWING THE STACKED LOW MOVING OVER OR JUST S OF THE SRN CWA BY 12Z
THU AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS TO AROUND 982MB. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT...REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES IN LATE THU INTO THU
NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH IT. 850MB TEMPS WILL
FALL FROM AROUND 4C AT 12Z THU TO -4C TO -8C BY 12Z FRI. ADDITIONAL
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO SAT BEHIND
THE REINFORCING TROUGH AS IT MERGES WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM FORMING
A BROAD UPPER LOW. RIDGING LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT SOME POINT LATER IN
THE WEEKEND.
WINDS...INCREASING WINDS ON WED WILL ARC FROM A SE DIRECTION OVER
MOST OF THE CWA TO E-NE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS LATER
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WILL RESULT AS THE LOW PASSES
NEARBY...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK. NW-W GALES AND
WIND ADVISORIES (IN EXPOSED LAND LOCATIONS) WILL DEVELOP LATER THU
AND MORE OR LESS CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT. 925MB WINDS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE 40-50KTS AND WITH MUCH COLDER AIR SURGING
IN...SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MIXING TO THAT LEVEL. THAT THIS TIME
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG GALES. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW
GALES BY SAT MORNING AND CONTINUE TO DROP OFF DURING THE DAY SAT.
PRECIP...RAIN MAY MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TUE NIGHT...BUT MAINLY
NOT UNTIL WED. WED EVENING INTO EARLY WED NIGHT SHOULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN UNDER THE CURRENT MODELED TRACK/TIMING. RAIN CONTINUES
OVER AT LEAST MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...GRADUALLY MIXING WITH SNOW W
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES IN AND ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC
FORCING MOVES IN. COULD SEE SOME THUNDER ON THU AS THE LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD. THU NIGHT WILL SEE SNOW BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS
THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
OVER. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL RESULT IN W-WNW WIND BELTS THU
NIGHT...WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS TURN MORE NW
THROUGH THE DAY FRI...SO THE FAVORED PRECIP BELTS WILL TRANSITION.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD TURN EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
RAIN OVER THE E AND RIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRI AFTERNOON...BUT
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE W WILL SEE SNOW THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE
WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP THEN TAPERS OFF
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CHANGE WITH THE
VOLATILE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THOSE WITH INTERESTS
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. AS WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
LLWS TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING AT CMX AND SAW. WITH WINDS
REMAINING GUSTY AT IWD TONIGHT...LLWS WAS NOT INCLUDED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015
AS HIGH PRES OVER OH/[A CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST...SW
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY. SRLY WINDS AOB 20 KNOTS MON INTO WED WILL INCREASE WITH E
GALES POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
500 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015
.AVIATION...
LIGHT S/SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MID CLOUDS POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OK WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25KTS. OTHER THAN A FEW
DAYTIME CU... SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015/
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO VERY STRONG WIND...POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ARE MAIN CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WILL OCCUR. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE TRICKY
DUE TO INCREASING SOUTH WIND AND SKY COVER. SOME MODELS INCLUDING
THE LATEST HRRR HINT THERE MAY BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO LOW TONIGHT. FOR
NOW...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE
CURRENTLY FORECAST LOWS COULD BE TOO WARM. COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE FROST FORMATION.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY. SOUTH WIND WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD BE THE MORE HUMID
DAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT TRICKY DUE TO CLOUD COVER WHICH
MODELS SEEM TO NOT BE HANDLING WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A POTENT FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION BRINGING SOME
WEATHER HAZARDS.
IN REGARDS TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE SEEMS TO BE RATHER HIGH AS WIND ADVISORIES WILL VERY
LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 40 TO 55 MPH
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY
BE NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
APPROACHING 40 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.
IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AS CAPPING
MAY BE STRONG AND INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN TOO LOW FOR MUCH...IF
ANY...STORM FORMATION...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. VERY STRONG
SHEAR AND FORCING FAVOR POSSIBLE MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS IF
STORMS CAN FORM. LOCATIONS EAST OF I-35 CERTAINLY APPEAR TO HAVE
THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY
BE THE MAIN HAZARD IF STORM FORM.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG WIND MOVE INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC AND POLAR COLD FRONTS. THE STRONGEST
WIND WILL LIKELY STAY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHILE THE LOWEST
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STAY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER ARE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES MAY
BE NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
THE AIRMASS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SYSTEM BY SUNDAY.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 41 64 49 70 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 41 64 50 71 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 42 66 51 73 / 10 0 0 10
GAGE OK 38 65 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 37 64 48 71 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 40 64 49 71 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
236 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO VERY STRONG WIND...POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ARE MAIN CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WILL OCCUR. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE TRICKY
DUE TO INCREASING SOUTH WIND AND SKY COVER. SOME MODELS INCLUDING
THE LATEST HRRR HINT THERE MAY BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO LOW TONIGHT. FOR
NOW...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE
CURRENTLY FORECAST LOWS COULD BE TOO WARM. COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE FROST FORMATION.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY. SOUTH WIND WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD BE THE MORE HUMID
DAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT TRICKY DUE TO CLOUD COVER WHICH
MODELS SEEM TO NOT BE HANDLING WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A POTENT FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION BRINGING SOME
WEATHER HAZARDS.
IN REGARDS TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE SEEMS TO BE RATHER HIGH AS WIND ADVISORIES WILL VERY
LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 40 TO 55 MPH
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY
BE NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
APPROACHING 40 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.
IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AS CAPPING
MAY BE STRONG AND INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN TOO LOW FOR MUCH...IF
ANY...STORM FORMATION...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. VERY STRONG
SHEAR AND FORCING FAVOR POSSIBLE MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS IF
STORMS CAN FORM. LOCATIONS EAST OF I-35 CERTAINLY APPEAR TO HAVE
THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY
BE THE MAIN HAZARD IF STORM FORM.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG WIND MOVE INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC AND POLAR COLD FRONTS. THE STRONGEST
WIND WILL LIKELY STAY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHILE THE LOWEST
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STAY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER ARE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES MAY
BE NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
THE AIRMASS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SYSTEM BY SUNDAY.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 41 64 49 70 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 41 64 50 71 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 42 66 51 73 / 10 0 0 10
GAGE OK 38 65 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 37 64 48 71 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 40 64 49 71 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/17