Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/07/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1047 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
WITH BACK EDGE OF PRECIP NOW EAST OF UTAH...CANCELLED WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR EASTERN UT MTNS. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO REFORM AROUND
GJT AND SCOOT EAST SO WILL HOLD ON TO THE HIGHLIGHTS AS CURRENTLY
DESIGNED IN WESTERN CO...ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MTN RANGE. AN ADDITIONAL
1 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY ABOVE THE SNOW LEVEL OF 5000 FEET NORTH TO
6500 FEET SOUTH. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED FREEZE WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR THE GRAND VALLEY AND UTAH VALLEY ZONES FOR TONIGHT.
HIGH CERTAINTY OF A KILLING FROST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WILL
TRANSITION FROM ONE DOMINATED BY WARM-SECTOR UPLIFT IN ITS EARLY
STAGES...TO ONE DOMINATED BY TWO OTHER FACTORS...COLD ADVECTION
AND DEFORMATION. THE COLD ADVECTION BEGAN KICKING IN OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE DEFORMATION WILL DEVELOP JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY OVER THE ROAN PLATEAU. AS THE SOUTHERN TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS SOME AIR BEGINS TO
CIRCULATE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LOW CENTER. HOWEVER...
LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODELS HOLD QPF SOUTH OF THE COLORADO-NEW
MEXICO BORDER SO NO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCAL
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE...DROPPED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. SIMILARLY...DROPPED ADVISORY FOR THE GUNNISON VALLEY AS
WELL SINCE DYNAMICS NOR FLOW ARE FAVORABLE. ELSEWHERE...A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO
CREATING A SHEAR/DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE HILLS NORTH OF THE
GRAND VALLEY AND UTAH/S GRAND FLAT. A BAND OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED BY THE NAM AND HRRR TO MOVE FROM THE
ROAN PLATEAU ...EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST- CENTRAL COLORADO AND
EXIT THE AREA AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS
APPEARED TO BE TIMED WELL WITH FORECAST MOVEMENT AND EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE ERODES A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
CLIP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN SNOW GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXCEPT
FOR A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PARK RANGE IN THE
EVENING...DRYING AND CLEARING WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE FIRST
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY THEN SLIDES EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY.
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO
THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. MODELS WERE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEREFORE APPEARS
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL COME TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RANGES ARE FAVORED WITH THIS STORM AND COLDER
AIR SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING SNOW LEVELS TO VALLEY BOTTOMS.
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH ERODES
CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER
WESTERN COLORADO AT MIDWEEK WHICH IMPLIES THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS SOLUTION WAS MORE
PROGRESSIVE BRINGING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. AS ALLUDED TO PREVIOUSLY...CAA WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO DIP TUESDAY THEN CONTINUE FALLING AT MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
SCT SHOWERS...SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET...AND ASSOCIATED LOWER
CIGS/VSBY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE TAF SITES ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR AND KASE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN...THOUGH SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE MTNS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL KEEP MID AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FOR AT LEAST THE NRN HALF OF CO AND THERE WILL
BE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE KEGE AND KASE. CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS
TOO LOW TO GO BEYOND VCSH. HOWEVER...WHERE CLEARING DOES
OCCUR...FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST FRIDAY FOR
COZ006.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-009-
010-012-013-018-019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ003-017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ008.
UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST FRIDAY FOR
UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...BEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
340 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WILL
TRANSITION FROM ONE DOMINATED BY WARM-SECTOR UPLIFT IN ITS EARLY
STAGES...TO ONE DOMINATED BY TWO OTHER FACTORS...COLD ADVECTION
AND DEFORMATION. THE COLD ADVECTION BEGAN KICKING IN OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE DEFORMATION WILL DEVELOP JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY OVER THE ROAN PLATEAU. AS THE SOUTHERN TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS SOME AIR BEGINS TO
CIRCULATE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LOW CENTER. HOWEVER...
LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODELS HOLD QPF SOUTH OF THE COLORADO-NEW
MEXICO BORDER SO NO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCAL
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE...DROPPED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. SIMILARLY...DROPPED ADVISORY FOR THE GUNNISON VALLEY AS
WELL SINCE DYNAMICS NOR FLOW ARE FAVORABLE. ELSEWHERE...A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO
CREATING A SHEAR/DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE HILLS NORTH OF THE
GRAND VALLEY AND UTAH/S GRAND FLAT. A BAND OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED BY THE NAM AND HRRR TO MOVE FROM THE
ROAN PLATEAU ...EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST- CENTRAL COLORADO AND
EXIT THE AREA AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS
APPEARED TO BE TIMED WELL WITH FORECAST MOVEMENT AND EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE ERODES A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
CLIP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN SNOW GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXCEPT
FOR A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PARK RANGE IN THE
EVENING...DRYING AND CLEARING WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE FIRST
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY THEN SLIDES EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY.
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO
THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. MODELS WERE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEREFORE APPEARS
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL COME TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RANGES ARE FAVORED WITH THIS STORM AND COLDER
AIR SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING SNOW LEVELS TO VALLEY BOTTOMS.
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH ERODES
CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER
WESTERN COLORADO AT MIDWEEK WHICH IMPLIES THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS SOLUTION WAS MORE
PROGRESSIVE BRINGING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. AS ALLUDED TO PREVIOUSLY...CAA WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO DIP TUESDAY THEN CONTINUE FALLING AT MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
THE WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT KASE...KEGE...KTEX...KRIL MOST FREQUENTLY
RELATIVE TO OTHER AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE EXPECT
KGJT...KMTJ...KDRO...KVEL AND KCNY WILL SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBY WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. THE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ003-017.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COZ006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ007-008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-009-
010-012-013-018-019.
UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR UTZ022-
027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
742 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MUCH OF THE COUNTRY
DOMINATED BY A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN CONTROL OF THE ENTIRE EAST COAST
IS NOW BEING DE-AMPLIFIED BY THIS PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT WE
REMAIN UNDER THIS RIDGE...AND ALTHOUGH ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
WEAKENING INTO SATURDAY...WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...OUR UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC IN NATURE WITH A WEAK AREA OF GULF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND
THE TAMPA BAY AREA ARE EXITING OFF INTO THE EASTERN GULF...AND
ONCE THESE ARE GONE...A GENERALLY DRY AND WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD
IS IN THE FORECAST. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY MORNING...A FEW AREAS OF
FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE AROUND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD
BURN OFF QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN HAS RISEN.
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH MANY SPOTS
RISING UP INTO THE UPPER 80S. A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
CLOUDS MAY HELP PREVENT A LOT OF STATIONS FROM REACHING 90...BUT
REGARDLESS EVERYONE WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE FINAL DAY.
CONDITIONS APPEAR A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTH OF I-4. HAVE A LARGE SWATH OF 40-50% POPS SOUTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WITH GENERALLY 30% POP FURTHER NORTH. ALTHOUGH
RAIN CHANCES ARE UP FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...DO NOT LOOK AT SATURDAY
AS A WASHOUT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE LIKE A SUMMER DAY AROUND THE
AREA...WITH MOST OF THE TIME BEING DRY...AND ONLY A PASSING STORM
OR TWO TO DEAL WITH.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS EVENING. AREAS OF BKN CIGS ABOVE 4KFT WILL SCATTER
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. NO
SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER...AND CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO PREVAIL VFR BY MID-MORNING. SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD
QUICKLY DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY...A FEW SHOWER/ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-4.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS. MODEST EASTERLY WIND SURGE MAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS EARLY SUNDAY AND
MERGE WILL A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW WILL PLAY A BIG PART IN
THE FORECAST OF WINDS AND WAVES FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE VERY LEAST MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND ARE URGED TO CHECK
THE FORECAST FREQUENTLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 88 74 84 / 20 30 40 70
FMY 73 89 73 86 / 10 40 50 70
GIF 70 89 72 83 / 10 40 50 60
SRQ 71 87 72 84 / 20 30 40 70
BKV 68 88 69 83 / 20 30 50 70
SPG 74 86 74 83 / 20 20 40 70
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Main challenge remains with the timing of the narrow line of
showers/storms tonight. Main cold front showing up on radar just
northwest of Des Moines this afternoon and extends southwest into
north central Kansas per surface observations. Strong/severe storms
are increasing over eastern Kansas and southwest Missouri, and some
of the remnants of those are progged by the HRRR to be moving into
central Illinois in the 7-9 pm time frame. Organization of the main
convective line has started, based on regional radar mosaics over
east central Minnesota and around Kansas City, and this line should
fill in over the next few hours. High-resolution models suggesting
this line should be roughly from Jacksonville-Peoria by late evening
and reach I-57 by 3 am. Not a lot of lightning anticipated with the
convection, but the RAP continues to indicate a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE and significant wind shear (0-6km bulk shear of 60-70 knots).
Latest SPC Day1 outlook maintains the marginal risk of severe storms
from about Lacon-Springfield westward. Rain should rapidly shut off
in the wake of the convective line.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
The cold front will have moved through the state by Friday morning
which will allow a dry high pressure area to build into the region
for the weekend. This high pressure will also bring in relatively
cooler temperatures through Sunday. Though cooler than what we`ve
experienced most of this week, normal temperatures in the middle 50s
will be common through the weekend and into the beginning of next
week.
When the high pressure area moves into the eastern US, southerly
winds will return to the area. Conditions will remain dry Mon and
Tue while a mid level trough builds out west. This trough will
eventually push into the midwest mid week and bring the return of
pcpn to the area for Wed through Thur. ECMWF and GFS differ on
timing of the next system, with the GFS weaker and quicker with the
system, while the ECMWF is slower and has a much stronger system
with a cutoff low associated with it. The slower ECMWF would keep
pcpn in the area through the end of the week, while the quicker GFS
bring the pcpn through by Thursday. Due to the blending of the
models, the new forecast will have pops for Wed through Thur.
However, expect the pops to reduced in places as models come into
better agreement and the expected outcome becomes better known;
which could take several days. Temps will warm back again to just
above normal, just not as warm as this past week. So, looking at mid
50s to mid 60s ahead of the mid week system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Main focus remains on potential for convection tonight, with the
passage of a fast moving cold front. Currently thinking any rain
before 00Z should be devoid of any thunder, as the instability
will be accompanying the front itself. While the pressure gradient
will keep gusty winds through frontal passage -- mainly from 20 to
30 knots -- some higher gusts may accompany the storms due to the
strong dynamics with the system. A period of MVFR conditions will
start to move in a couple hours before the main line, and skies
should rapidly clear before sunrise. Existing TAF`s had this in
hand and only required some minor timing adjustments.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1130 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Batch of rain showers advancing northeast ahead of the leading
shortwave. Bulk of this will be affecting areas east of I-55, but
have confined the highest PoP`s to locations south of a
Taylorville to Paris line. There will likely be a break in some of
the precipitation between this and the line of showers/storms that
is expected to develop across central Iowa/northwest Missouri
later this afternoon. The recent runs of the higher resolution
model guidance focus on the 9 pm to 3 am time frame for frontal
passage and its associated line of broken convection, and have
adjusted the hourly rain chances accordingly. RAP guidance showing
most unstable CAPE values of 200-500 J/kg, along with strong 0-6
km bulk shear values upwards of 60 knots, so will need to watch
for some stronger winds mixing down in the heavier showers/storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Two forecast concerns this period include the extent of any dense
fog across the area thru dawn, and then timing of initial push of
moisture/showers into southwest thru southern counties this
afternoon.
Latest surface map indicating the area of high pressure that brought
the area light winds and fog on a daily basis for the past several
mornings has finally pushed far enough to our east to allow the gradient
to tighten up over the forecast area as our next storm system pushes into
the Plains. Forecast soundings continue to show a very shallow layer of
moisture in the low levels, with a secondary band of moisture between
3000-5000 feet which is associated with a band of clouds now streaming
northeast across central IL. Will continue to hold on to the mention of
patchy fog this morning, but we are still thinking its not going to be
nearly as dense or as long lasting as the past few mornings.
Seeing a fast moving but narrow line of convection over the Missouri
Valley associated with the frontal system which will push into our
area tonight. Lead shortwave forecast by models to bring a band of
showers northeast into at least our southwest thru southern counties
this afternoon. Instability not looking that great with the lead
wave with most of the boundary layer destabilization taking place
with the main shortwave and attendant cold front tonight. Higher POPs
will be across the south this afternoon and will include at least a
slight chance of thunder this afternoon associated with the initial
shortwave. With the tighter pressure gradient over our area today, look
for gusty southerly winds thru the afternoon hours which should help
push temperatures well above normal once again, mainly in the low 70s
with a few mid 70s possible this afternoon over far southeast IL.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Strong cold front to track east and approach western IL by midnight
tonight and sweep east across the state overnight. This spread
showers and a few thunderstorms east across IL during the evening
and then diminish from the west later tonight into early Friday
morning. SPC has shifted marginal risk (5%) to western half of CWA
tonight, with 5% risk of hail west of IL river and 5% risk of strong
winds west of I-55. The 5% risk of tornadoes is just west of IL over
central/eastern IA into western half of MO later today into this
evening. Models have trended faster ending showers Friday morning
with breeze WNW winds ushering in cooler air. Lows tonight range
from upper 40s nw of IL river to the lower 60s near the Wabash
river. Highs Friday range from mid 50s over IL river valley to mid
60s near Wabash river, so temps are not expected to climb much on
Friday from tonight`s lows.
A northern stream short wave trof dives southeast into IL Sat
morning and exits southeast IL by sunset Saturday and could bring a
period of clouds on Saturday. Seasonably cool highs Saturday in the
lower 50s northern CWA and upper 50s in southeast IL.
Large high pressure settling into IL Sat night, and Ohio river
valley Sunday, will bring dry and cool weather to central and
southeast IL. Frosty lows in the low to mid 30s expected Saturday
and Sunday nights. High pressure drifting east into southern New
England and mid Atlantic states on Monday while surface low pressure
developing over CO. Temperatures will gradually modify Monday
through Wednesday with increasing southerly flow. 00Z forecast
models have trended drier early next work week on Mon/Tue as
southern stream short wave moves ne from the southern MS river
valley across the southeast States and keeps most of its qpf
southeast of central IL Mon/Tue.
More unsettled weather expected for the middle of next week as deep
upper level trof digs over the Rockies and surface low pressure
intensifies as it ejects northeast from CO into the upper MS river
valley and western Great Lakes by Wed evening per GFS or Thu evening
per ECMWF/GEM models. This to bring another strong cold front east
across IL though timing difference between GFS models (Wed night)
and ECMWF/GEM models (Thu night). Models have trended slower with
this storm system and tending to lean toward slower GEM and ECMWF
models due to highly amplified upper level pattern. Stuck close
to model consensus with pops ranging from 20-40% Wed with lowest
pops east of I-57. Then chance of showers across area Wed night
and Thursday and would not be surprised to see a few thunderstorms
due to strongly dynamic storm system. Milder highs in the 60s for
the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Main focus remains on potential for convection tonight, with the
passage of a fast moving cold front. Currently thinking any rain
before 00Z should be devoid of any thunder, as the instability
will be accompanying the front itself. While the pressure gradient
will keep gusty winds through frontal passage -- mainly from 20 to
30 knots -- some higher gusts may accompany the storms due to the
strong dynamics with the system. A period of MVFR conditions will
start to move in a couple hours before the main line, and skies
should rapidly clear before sunrise. Existing TAF`s had this in
hand and only required some minor timing adjustments.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1027 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Batch of rain showers advancing northeast ahead of the leading
shortwave. Bulk of this will be affecting areas east of I-55, but
have confined the highest PoP`s to locations south of a
Taylorville to Paris line. There will likely be a break in some of
the precipitation between this and the line of showers/storms that
is expected to develop across central Iowa/northwest Missouri
later this afternoon. The recent runs of the higher resolution
model guidance focus on the 9 pm to 3 am time frame for frontal
passage and its associated line of broken convection, and have
adjusted the hourly rain chances accordingly. RAP guidance showing
most unstable CAPE values of 200-500 J/kg, along with strong 0-6
km bulk shear values upwards of 60 knots, so will need to watch
for some stronger winds mixing down in the heavier showers/storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Two forecast concerns this period include the extent of any dense
fog across the area thru dawn, and then timing of initial push of
moisture/showers into southwest thru southern counties this
afternoon.
Latest surface map indicating the area of high pressure that brought
the area light winds and fog on a daily basis for the past several
mornings has finally pushed far enough to our east to allow the gradient
to tighten up over the forecast area as our next storm system pushes into
the Plains. Forecast soundings continue to show a very shallow layer of
moisture in the low levels, with a secondary band of moisture between
3000-5000 feet which is associated with a band of clouds now streaming
northeast across central IL. Will continue to hold on to the mention of
patchy fog this morning, but we are still thinking its not going to be
nearly as dense or as long lasting as the past few mornings.
Seeing a fast moving but narrow line of convection over the Missouri
Valley associated with the frontal system which will push into our
area tonight. Lead shortwave forecast by models to bring a band of
showers northeast into at least our southwest thru southern counties
this afternoon. Instability not looking that great with the lead
wave with most of the boundary layer destabilization taking place
with the main shortwave and attendant cold front tonight. Higher POPs
will be across the south this afternoon and will include at least a
slight chance of thunder this afternoon associated with the initial
shortwave. With the tighter pressure gradient over our area today, look
for gusty southerly winds thru the afternoon hours which should help
push temperatures well above normal once again, mainly in the low 70s
with a few mid 70s possible this afternoon over far southeast IL.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Strong cold front to track east and approach western IL by midnight
tonight and sweep east across the state overnight. This spread
showers and a few thunderstorms east across IL during the evening
and then diminish from the west later tonight into early Friday
morning. SPC has shifted marginal risk (5%) to western half of CWA
tonight, with 5% risk of hail west of IL river and 5% risk of strong
winds west of I-55. The 5% risk of tornadoes is just west of IL over
central/eastern IA into western half of MO later today into this
evening. Models have trended faster ending showers Friday morning
with breeze WNW winds ushering in cooler air. Lows tonight range
from upper 40s nw of IL river to the lower 60s near the Wabash
river. Highs Friday range from mid 50s over IL river valley to mid
60s near Wabash river, so temps are not expected to climb much on
Friday from tonight`s lows.
A northern stream short wave trof dives southeast into IL Sat
morning and exits southeast IL by sunset Saturday and could bring a
period of clouds on Saturday. Seasonably cool highs Saturday in the
lower 50s northern CWA and upper 50s in southeast IL.
Large high pressure settling into IL Sat night, and Ohio river
valley Sunday, will bring dry and cool weather to central and
southeast IL. Frosty lows in the low to mid 30s expected Saturday
and Sunday nights. High pressure drifting east into southern New
England and mid Atlantic states on Monday while surface low pressure
developing over CO. Temperatures will gradually modify Monday
through Wednesday with increasing southerly flow. 00Z forecast
models have trended drier early next work week on Mon/Tue as
southern stream short wave moves ne from the southern MS river
valley across the southeast States and keeps most of its qpf
southeast of central IL Mon/Tue.
More unsettled weather expected for the middle of next week as deep
upper level trof digs over the Rockies and surface low pressure
intensifies as it ejects northeast from CO into the upper MS river
valley and western Great Lakes by Wed evening per GFS or Thu evening
per ECMWF/GEM models. This to bring another strong cold front east
across IL though timing difference between GFS models (Wed night)
and ECMWF/GEM models (Thu night). Models have trended slower with
this storm system and tending to lean toward slower GEM and ECMWF
models due to highly amplified upper level pattern. Stuck close
to model consensus with pops ranging from 20-40% Wed with lowest
pops east of I-57. Then chance of showers across area Wed night
and Thursday and would not be surprised to see a few thunderstorms
due to strongly dynamic storm system. Milder highs in the 60s for
the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Patchy MVFR and IFR cigs/vsbys possible thru 13z, then VFR
conditions are expected thru today with a return to MVFR and
local IFR conditions in showers and isold thunder tonight.
Increased southerly winds has prevented any widespread dense fog
from forming this morning. We still could see a brief period of
MVFR and local IFR cigs and vsbys with the fog for about an hour
after sunrise, then mostly VFR cigs are expected into the afternoon
hours. As the cold front pushes into the area tonight, showers
will increase and the cigs/vsbys will decrease. A lead shortwave
may bring an initial surge of moisture and showers into the area
this afternoon. Will cover with a VCSH for that possibility, then
the better chances arrive after dark this evening as the cold
front approaches.
MVFR cigs may actually get into the PIA area just before 00z,
with the other TAF sites seeing MVFR or lower cigs/vsbys in
showers and isold TSRA tonight. Southerly winds of 12 to 17 kts
can be expected today with gusts up to 25 kts at times a little
later this morning thru the afternoon hours. Look for the winds to
veer into a westerly direction tonight as the cold front sweeps
thru the area with speeds in the 12 to 17 kt range with gusts once
again around 25 kts at times.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
334 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Two forecast concerns this period include the extent of any dense
fog across the area thru dawn, and then timing of initial push of
moisture/showers into southwest thru southern counties this
afternoon.
Latest surface map indicating the area of high pressure that brought
the area light winds and fog on a daily basis for the past several
mornings has finally pushed far enough to our east to allow the gradient
to tighten up over the forecast area as our next storm system pushes into
the Plains. Forecast soundings continue to show a very shallow layer of
moisture in the low levels, with a secondary band of moisture between
3000-5000 feet which is associated with a band of clouds now streaming
northeast across central IL. Will continue to hold on to the mention of
patchy fog this morning, but we are still thinking its not going to be
nearly as dense or as long lasting as the past few mornings.
Seeing a fast moving but narrow line of convection over the Missouri
Valley associated with the frontal system which will push into our
area tonight. Lead shortwave forecast by models to bring a band of
showers northeast into at least our southwest thru southern counties
this afternoon. Instability not looking that great with the lead
wave with most of the boundary layer destabilization taking place
with the main shortwave and attendant cold front tonight. Higher POPs
will be across the south this afternoon and will include at least a
slight chance of thunder this afternoon associated with the initial
shortwave. With the tighter pressure gradient over our area today, look
for gusty southerly winds thru the afternoon hours which should help
push temperatures well above normal once again, mainly in the low 70s
with a few mid 70s possible this afternoon over far southeast IL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Strong cold front to track east and approach western IL by midnight
tonight and sweep east across the state overnight. This spread
showers and a few thunderstorms east across IL during the evening
and then diminish from the west later tonight into early Friday
morning. SPC has shifted marginal risk (5%) to western half of CWA
tonight, with 5% risk of hail west of IL river and 5% risk of strong
winds west of I-55. The 5% risk of tornadoes is just west of IL over
central/eastern IA into western half of MO later today into this
evening. Models have trended faster ending showers Friday morning
with breeze wnw winds ushering in cooler air. Lows tonight range
from upper 40s nw of IL river to the lower 60s near the Wabash
river. Highs Friday range from mid 50s over IL river valley to mid
60s near Wabash river, so temps are not expected to climb much on
Friday from tonights lows.
A northern stream short wave trof dives southeast into IL Sat
morning and exits southeast IL by sunset Saturday and could bring a
period of clouds on Saturday. Seasonably cool highs Saturday in the
lower 50s northern CWA and upper 50s in southeast IL.
Large high pressure settling into IL Sat night, and Ohio river
valley Sunday, will bring dry and cool weather to central and
southeast IL. Frosty lows in the low to mid 30s expected Saturday
and Sunday nights. High pressure drifting east into southern New
England and mid Atlantic states on Monday while surface low pressure
developing over CO. Temperatures will gradually modify Monday
through Wednesday with increasing southerly flow. 00Z forecast
models have trended drier early next work week on Mon/Tue as
southern stream short wave moves ne from the southern MS river
valley across the southeast States and keeps most of its qpf
southeast of central IL Mon/Tue.
More unsettled weather expected for the middle of next week as deep
upper level trof digs over the Rockies and surface low pressure
intensifies as it ejects northeast from CO into the upper MS river
valley and western Great Lakes by Wed evening per GFS or Thu evening
per ECMWF/GEM models. This to bring another strong cold front east
across IL though timing difference between GFS models (Wed night)
and ECMWF/GEM models (Thu night). Models have trended slower with
this storm system and tending to lean toward slower GEM and ECMWF
models due to highly amplied upper level pattern. Stuck close to
model consensus with pops ranging from 20-40% Wed with lowest pops
east of I-57. Then chance of showers across area Wed night and
Thursday and would not be surprised to see a few thunderstorms due
to strongly dynamic storm system. Milder highs in the 60s for the
middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Main concerns remain on fog potential and the progression and
coverage of mid clouds moving north into our area. The latest RAP
soundings are showing a pinch of moisture around 4K feet by
08z/2am at all TAF sites. Any cloud cover should help to prevent
the development of dense fog tonight. MVFR fog is already
beginning to form across the area, so have included 3-4SM MVFR
fog from 08z to 16z. HRRR continues to keep dense fog mainly
southeast of I-70, and away from any terminal sites tonight.
Steady southerly winds and increasing cloud cover should be enough
to prevent the widespread low vsbys noted the past few nights.
Once fog lifts by 16z, south winds will increase to between 13
and 16kt by late morning. VFR clouds are expected for the bulk of
the day, with any showers holding off until later in the day for PIA
and SPI. Prevailing rain and VCTS were included at all TAF sites
for mid to late evening as marginal instability, a low level jet,
and ample moisture arrive in our forecast area ahead of the cold
front.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1140 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Clearing has developed in most of central and southeast Illinois
this evening, which should facilitate the start of fog formation,
but most likely not dense fog. That will be mainly due to the fact
that mid-level clouds are still poised to move north into our
area from southern IL and SE Missouri. RAP forecast soundings
show a moist layer around 4k feet through the night, so believe
that clouds will still eventually cover much of the area by
sunrise. Have updated sky conditions to reduce evening clouds,
then increase after midnight.
HRRR vis forecast shows dense fog mainly SE of I-70 later tonight.
MVN has already dipped to 1/4SM in fog, which matches the latest
HRRR output well. Have added areas of fog to the SE counties after
midnight, and lingered it to 14z. Will watch that area closely for
possible need for a dense fog advisory.
Temps and dewpoints still appear on track, with lows in the mid to
upper 50s. Updated forecast info will be available shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Main short-term forecast concern will be potential fog development
tonight. Widespread dense fog from early this morning dissipated by
midday, followed by partly sunny skies during the afternoon. Exact
degree of mixing that took place during the day remains in question:
however, NAM/RAP forecast soundings are not nearly as moist in the
lowest-levels as they have been in previous nights. In addition,
widespread cloud cover streaming northward from Arkansas/western
Tennessee should result in mostly cloudy skies tonight. Given the
cloud cover and slightly stronger winds due to a tightening pressure
gradient ahead of an approaching front, do not think fog will become
as widespread or dense as it has lately. As a result, will only
mention patchy fog in the forecast for tonight with low temperatures
dropping into the middle to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Morning upper air shows deep trof in the western rockies with upper
ridge over MS valley. Soundings continue to show significant
moisture below strong inversion, but with more gradient and
cloudiness, fog will be less than previous nights (as mentioned
previously).
Moisture flow will continue ahead of deepening frontal system
progged to move out of rockies. This will bring pcpn into area ahead
of the front. Instability will be limited, but strength of upper
support and wind flow will make some gusty winds possible with
the passage of some of the stronger showers/storms. Models
similar in movement of front on Thursday night, with decreasing
clouds by Friday after front moved through.
Cooler high pressure in control through weekend. Next chance of pcpn
with the next shortwave moving through Midwest midweek. Models
differ though on timing of this front, so chance pops in the
forecast for Tues night to Wed will need to be refined later.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Main concerns remain on fog potential and the progression and
coverage of mid clouds moving north into our area. The latest RAP
soundings are showing a pinch of moisture around 4K feet by
08z/2am at all TAF sites. Any cloud cover should help to prevent
the development of dense fog tonight. MVFR fog is already
beginning to form across the area, so have included 3-4SM MVFR
fog from 08z to 16z. HRRR continues to keep dense fog mainly
southeast of I-70, and away from any terminal sites tonight.
Steady southerly winds and increasing cloud cover should be enough
to prevent the widespread low vsbys noted the past few nights.
Once fog lifts by 16z, south winds will increase to between 13
and 16kt by late morning. VFR clouds are expected for the bulk of
the day, with any showers holding off until later in the day for PIA
and SPI. Prevailing rain and VCTS were included at all TAF sites
for mid to late evening as marginal instability, a low level jet,
and ample moisture arrive in our forecast area ahead of the cold
front.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
748 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
UPDATE ISSUED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER/POP COVERAGE PUTTING FOCUS ON
SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECTING REST OF CWA
TO BECOME PCLDY/CLR AND WILL RE-ISSUE FORECAST TO SHOW CHANGE.
REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND OVER OUR CWA...TO THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
FROM WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AXIS OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAVE RESULTED
IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN THE WEST HAVE
RESULTED IN RAIN/SNOW MIX WHERE MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE SATURATED THE
DRY MIXED LAYER. THE FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...THE HIGHER THE WBZ
HEIGHTS ARE AND LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST...SO I WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE (ROUGHLY AROUND SUNSET). WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING...NAM/SREF STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z
SATURDAY. CONSIDERING FORECAST TEMPS THIS WOULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG
POTENTIAL AND SLICK ROADWAYS. RAP IS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...WITH HRRR
TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH AND FOG SIGNAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE I HAVE DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING FOG MENTION
IN THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...AND WILL ALLOW
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
BUILDING LEE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WAA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AT
LEAST IN THE MID 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE UPPER
50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG FIRST TWO
NIGHTS...WINDS/FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY...AND CHANCE/TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO
A MORE AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW HAS BEEN NOTED
IN THE PACIFIC IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
MODELS WERE STARTING FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS WERE NOT QUITE AMPLIFIED/TOO FAR EAST WITH THE ALASKA SYSTEM
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WAS NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH.
OVERALL THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. THE NAM
AND ECMWF WERE STARTING OUT WELL AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS/CANADIAN
AND THE ECMWF/NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGING AND DRY AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE.
COULD END UP RATHER MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR DUE TO THE WINDS
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM SHOWING FOG
IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. HOWEVER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS THE
NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS. WILL PROBABLY
END BEING A THICK FROST OR DEW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...RETREATING SURFACE HIGH/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH
CREATES A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE PROGGED 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS LOOK TO CREATE
BREEZY AND ESPECIALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. DEWPOINTS TO BE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. AT THIS TIME...THE LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SO WE LOOK SAFE FOR NOW ON FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES.
AGAIN THE NAM LOOKS LIKE IT IS OVERDOING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WITH A CONTINUED DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO WILL ONCE AGAIN END
UP AS FROST OR DEW.
MONDAY...DEEP DRY AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. AT THE SAME TIME A
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING OR BE
NEAR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT WILL PROBABLY
ONLY SEE HIGH CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. JET/LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT GETS STRONGER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO A
DEEP DRY LAYER...IT ONLY LOOKS LIKE MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN REGARDS TO THE MID LEVEL
PORTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SOME PRECIPITATION...
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...
DIFFERING TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN AND SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT. FOR THE GFS...THE LAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BECOME SLOWER AND
IT IS NOW THE SLOWEST MODEL AND ALSO A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE
12Z ECMWF STILL HAS ABOUT THE SAME PATH AND IS THE MOST WOUND UP
AS BEFORE...HOWEVER IT IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND
THE GFS. CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE.
THE GEFS TENDED TO SIDE A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION.
THE WPC DISCUSSION AND MANUAL PROGS WENT TOWARD THE INTERMEDIATE
SOLUTION...CLOSER TO THE GEFS/ECMWF MEAN SOLUTION. THE INIT BLEND
REFLECTED THE INTERMEDIATE/SLOWER SOLUTION. CONSIDERING THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...MADE NO CHANGES
TO WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR POPS. THIS AMOUNTED TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GOING WITH THE ABOVE DEPICTION...I SLOWED DOWN/KEPT THE CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW FURTHER WEST. ALL SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TO JUST ACROSS THE COLORADO BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS.
A MIXTURE WILL BE JUST EAST OF THAT AND ALL RAIN STILL IN THE
EAST. THE SNOW OR MIXTURE SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO RAIN BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT AND HAVE THE MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW ENDING AT
THAT TIME. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING NEAR AN INCH IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BUT THAT COULD CHANGE QUICKLY IF MORE WAFFLING
OF SOLUTIONS OCCUR.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL COOL
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
FOR KGLD/KMCK...VFR/MVFR MIX THRU 08Z WITH BKN035-060 DOWN TO
BKN015 AT TIMES WITH VCSH. AFTER 08Z...BKN003 CEILINGS WITH 6SM BR
AT TIMES. BY 15Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH SKC. WINDS NNW AROUND 10KTS
BECOMING LGT/VAR THRU 15Z THEN SW 10-20KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
449 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND OVER OUR CWA...TO THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
FROM WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AXIS OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAVE RESULTED
IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN THE WEST HAVE
RESULTED IN RAIN/SNOW MIX WHERE MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE SATURATED THE
DRY MIXED LAYER. THE FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...THE HIGHER THE WBZ
HEIGHTS ARE AND LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST...SO I WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE (ROUGHLY AROUND SUNSET). WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING...NAM/SREF STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z
SATURDAY. CONSIDERING FORECAST TEMPS THIS WOULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG
POTENTIAL AND SLICK ROADWAYS. RAP IS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...WITH HRRR
TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH AND FOG SIGNAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE I HAVE DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING FOG MENTION
IN THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...AND WILL ALLOW
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
BUILDING LEE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WAA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AT
LEAST IN THE MID 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE UPPER
50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG FIRST TWO
NIGHTS...WINDS/FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY...AND CHANCE/TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO
A MORE AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW HAS BEEN NOTED
IN THE PACIFIC IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
MODELS WERE STARTING FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS WERE NOT QUITE AMPLIFIED/TOO FAR EAST WITH THE ALASKA SYSTEM
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WAS NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH.
OVERALL THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. THE NAM
AND ECMWF WERE STARTING OUT WELL AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS/CANADIAN
AND THE ECMWF/NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGING AND DRY AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE.
COULD END UP RATHER MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR DUE TO THE WINDS
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM SHOWING FOG
IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. HOWEVER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS THE
NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS. WILL PROBABLY
END BEING A THICK FROST OR DEW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...RETREATING SURFACE HIGH/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH
CREATES A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE PROGGED 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS LOOK TO CREATE
BREEZY AND ESPECIALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. DEWPOINTS TO BE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. AT THIS TIME...THE LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SO WE LOOK SAFE FOR NOW ON FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES.
AGAIN THE NAM LOOKS LIKE IT IS OVERDOING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WITH A CONTINUED DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO WILL ONCE AGAIN END
UP AS FROST OR DEW.
MONDAY...DEEP DRY AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. AT THE SAME TIME A
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING OR BE
NEAR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT WILL PROBABLY
ONLY SEE HIGH CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. JET/LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT GETS STRONGER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO A
DEEP DRY LAYER...IT ONLY LOOKS LIKE MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN REGARDS TO THE MID LEVEL
PORTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SOME PRECIPITATION...
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...
DIFFERING TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN AND SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT. FOR THE GFS...THE LAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BECOME SLOWER AND
IT IS NOW THE SLOWEST MODEL AND ALSO A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE
12Z ECMWF STILL HAS ABOUT THE SAME PATH AND IS THE MOST WOUND UP
AS BEFORE...HOWEVER IT IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND
THE GFS. CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE.
THE GEFS TENDED TO SIDE A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION.
THE WPC DISCUSSION AND MANUAL PROGS WENT TOWARD THE INTERMEDIATE
SOLUTION...CLOSER TO THE GEFS/ECMWF MEAN SOLUTION. THE INIT BLEND
REFLECTED THE INTERMEDIATE/SLOWER SOLUTION. CONSIDERING THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...MADE NO CHANGES
TO WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR POPS. THIS AMOUNTED TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GOING WITH THE ABOVE DEPICTION...I SLOWED DOWN/KEPT THE CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW FURTHER WEST. ALL SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TO JUST ACROSS THE COLORADO BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS.
A MIXTURE WILL BE JUST EAST OF THAT AND ALL RAIN STILL IN THE
EAST. THE SNOW OR MIXTURE SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO RAIN BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT AND HAVE THE MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW ENDING AT
THAT TIME. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING NEAR AN INCH IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BUT THAT COULD CHANGE QUICKLY IF MORE WAFFLING
OF SOLUTIONS OCCUR.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL COOL
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
FOR KGLD/KMCK...VFR/MVFR MIX THRU 08Z WITH BKN035-060 DOWN TO
BKN015 AT TIMES WITH VCSH. AFTER 08Z...BKN003 CEILINGS WITH 6SM BR
AT TIMES. BY 15Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH SKC. WINDS NNW AROUND 10KTS
BECOMING LGT/VAR THRU 15Z THEN SW 10-20KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
354 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
A narrow but expanding band of showers was developing across the far
southwest counties this afternoon, as far east as Liberal and
Ulysses. This shower band is associated with an advancing upper cold
trough just behind a surface 850 mb frontal boundary about top clear
the CWA line in the southwest. Clouds have continued to expand
during the afternoon elsewhere across the the area behind the
boundary, leaving the south central Kansas counties in locations
line Pratt Medicine Lodge and Coldwater sunny all afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
The HRRR has continued to expand the pops eastward through the
entire southern half of the forecast through the late afternoon as
the wave translates across the area. A narrow corridor may pick up
on the order of one tenth of an inch of rain in while most of the
rest of the area will see scattered brief showers with little
accumulation. As the high pressure expands across the area tonight,
winds will gradually subside to light and northerly. The next couple
of day will lead to overall cooler temperatures. Higher dewpoint
immediately behind the boundary lends itself to some uncertainty in
just how cool temperatures may fall in the eastern portion of the
area, which will limit the eastward extent of tonight`s freeze
warning. Temperatures will warm back toward the 60 degree mark with
light winds on Friday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Colder air is likely across the entire forecast area by early
Saturday morning as the pacific surface high pressure expands across
the Central Plains this weekend. This will be the coldest morning of
the forecast period with the western counties very likely falling
into the upper 20s in the western counties.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
An 850 mb frontal boundary now moving though the area will eventual
bring slightly lower surface dew points ans an drier airmass.
However in the meantime, a sharp trough and cold pool this
afternoon could set off showers across sections of south west and
south central Kansas and may cause amendments to TAF site GCK/DDC.
Any shower activity will not likely affect VFR conditions at any
sites however.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 60 32 54 / 40 10 10 0
GCK 32 59 29 54 / 30 20 20 0
EHA 30 58 29 53 / 30 10 10 0
LBL 34 61 30 55 / 40 10 10 0
HYS 34 59 30 54 / 10 10 20 0
P28 39 62 35 57 / 30 0 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Friday for
KSZ045-046-064-065-077>080-086>088.
Freeze Warning from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 8 AM CST
/7 AM MST/ Friday for KSZ043-044-061>063-074>076-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
213 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD
TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US...WITH RIDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG COLORADO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PLUME OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR CWA BEHIND COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS NOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS HAVE SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND...IN LINE WITH
TRENDS INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION EASTWARD...STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP PUT SHOWER THREAT TO AN END AND SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS CLOUD COVER COMBINED IN A SHIFT IN WINDS
TO THE WEST COULD COMPLICATE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING...HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS
AND WINDS INCREASE MORE THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THIS COULD VARY BY
5-10F.
FRIDAY...SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION AND
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
PASS WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA. STRONG FORCING SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...HOWEVER THERE SEEM TO BE TWO CAMPS REGARDING PRECIP
POTENTIAL. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION...AND HIGHER QPF ACROSS OUR CWA. NAM/SREF/ARW/NMM
ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AT MOST SOME
SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTH. I KEPT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON (TRANSITIONING SOUTHEAST) WHICH FOLLOWS
ECMWF/GFS. WHILE I DO NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO ONE SOLUTION OR
ANOTHER...CONSIDERING THE FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY THIS SEEMED TO BE
THE BEST APPROACH FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AND CONSIDERING A SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS TODAY I STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN BEFORE THE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE BEGIN TO COOL.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB SLOWLY SATURDAY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND INTO THE LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE
GENERATING A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TRI STATE
AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FORECASTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE EVENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS
SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND
LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LONGER WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A
STRONGER JET ALOFT OF 70KTS IS POSSIBLE...A LACK OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP A
LATE SEASON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MINIMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
AS RAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WHERE A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED CONSIDERING
THE GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE ALSO NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED
LOW AND THE GFS HAVING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE FORECASTS AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL COOL OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
EXTENSIVE 1500-2000 KFT AGL STRATUS LAYER EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. SATELLITE AND OBS DO NOT CURRENTLY SHOW
ANY TREND TOWARDS VFR TO THE NORTHWEST (UPSTREAM). ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS AN TREND TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CONSIDERING CURRENT TRENDS I AM NOT SURE IF THIS IS
REALISTIC IN THE NEAR TERM. DURING THIS UPDATE I DELAYED THE ONSET
FOR STRATUS LIFTING AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
(20-21Z). UPSTREAM LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA ON RADAR CURRENTLY MOVING
TOWARDS BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD BE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER
22-23Z THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z FROM THE NORTHWEST OF BOTH
TERMINALS...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF CONSISTENCY
ON THIS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
306 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
The HRRR is still trying to figure out the convective evolution
tonight. Earlier it appeared a consensus was building for the
current area of showers to dissipate as it moved through southern
Illinois this evening, and then the main QLCS activity would move
back into the area around midnight. The most recent runs are a
bit more diverse, building more intense convection northeast
through the boot heel 03-06Z and then through west Kentucky mostly
by 09Z. This run is showing a more signifant LEWP structure than
we have seen before. So this is actually an escalation from what
we have been expecting.
The bottom line is that the larger-scale models continue to
develop plenty of low-level shear and most unstable CAPE to
support severe weather in the form of damaging winds and tornadoes
as the main line moves through the region late this evening and
overnight. There still is the potential for the system to produce
little or no lightning.
Most of the overnight activity will be east southeast of the area
by 12Z. There is a small chance of showers streaming east
northeast along the Tennessee border through Friday night, as a
larger-scale trough approaches the area. Will keep a small pop
down there to handle this possibility.
Generally trended toward the warm side guidance for highs and lows
through Friday night, then toward the cool side Saturday through
Saturday night.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Confidence is medium but a bit better than previous runs until mid
to late next week then timing confidence is very low.
The models now are in good agreement of a cut off low...caught up in
a weak perturbation...will pass just our northwest. As it passes it
pulls gulf moisture to its southeast over the pah fa and create
enough lift to produce some showers at least over the southeast
portion Monday. Where the models differ is the exact path of the
low. Some would bring it through the fa while others keep farther to
northwest. They also differ on the western extent of the rain. They
do however agree the closed low will open up and accelerate out of
the area. The models are in fair agreement of spotty waa type
showers in the lows wake. These would be low confidence and would
yield very little rain or coverage if they do occur...so most areas
dry until the next system arrives. The models continue to be around
24 hours apart on the next system. Confidence in another system is
fair but timing of system is low. Right now the GFS is the fastest
with the system arriving around 6z Wed. The DGEX is in the middle
with arrival Wed aftn. Finally the ECMWF brings it in Thursday
around 12z. Some elevated instability was indicated with K index
values around 35. Surface based instability is not indicated at this
time. Will likely hold off introduction of thunder unless
collaboration calls for it and then it would only be isolated at
best. Will hold off and see what the extended init yields and use
collaboration to try and present a reasonable solution at this
juncture. Temperatures will start out below normal and slowly warm
to near normal next week that is until the mid to late week system
moves through then back below normal expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1202 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
May flirt with MVFR ceilings at the onset of the period, but they
should settle in at lower VFR levels quickly this afternoon. A
batch of showers will push through KCGI later this afternoon, and
MVFR conditions will be possible with it. Most guidance shows
that area dissipating as it tries to reach KPAH and KEVV after
00Z. The main round of convection will move southeast through the
area from just after 06Z through 09Z or 10Z. Threw in some gusts
with IFR conditions, but did not mention TS at this time. The odds
of TS are very slim at any one point. IFR or low MVFR ceilings
will persist through daybreak and strong clearing is expected a
bit behind the cold front. Northwest winds will be the rule Friday
morning.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1203 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1202 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Multiple versions of the HRRR are now showing a QLCS moving into
the northwest periphery of our area around midnight. The 12Z
models continue to show enough shear and elevated instability
to support some severe weather in the overnight hours. SPC`s
latest day 1 outlook describes the concern pretty well. It still
looks like lightning will be very iffy tonight.
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Main forecast issue with the near term continues to lie with
thunderstorm risk in the first 24 hours of the package.
Though models suggest most of the mid level energy will be shunted
off to the north of the region, MU CAPES up to around 500J/kg
continue to be generated at times by the 00Z NAM and GFS during
the overnight hours tonight along and ahead of an advancing cold
front. A local study indicates that this would be sufficient to
support an isolated tornado or two given the high shear
environment (0-6 KM shear 50+ kts) to go along with some pockets of
damaging winds. Surface dew points in the lower half of the 60s are
also a bit worrisome. However, the weak instability will make it
difficult to generate lightning, so we may end up with a few severe
showers as opposed to thunderstorms. Does not look like a big
outbreak at this time by any means. Furthermore, PWATS should be
running near the 99th percentile for this time of year, so will need
to monitor for locally heavy rainfall too. Luckily, most areas can
take some decent rainfall.
The precipitation will clear most, if not all, of the region by
early in the day Friday. Clouds may not be so quick to depart,
esp over wrn KY. Better chc for a bit of sun on Sat...though temps
will be much cooler in the upper 50s to near 60.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
The latter half of the weekend and into early next week, the PAH
forecast area will be under the influence of high sfc pressure and
slack flow aloft. The only exception will be a minor feature in the
mid level flow, a low that is shown to close off in our vicinity and
induce an inverted sfc trof. Depending on which med range model you
believe, a rain shield may cover all or just part of our area on
Mon. For now, we will forecast a short-lived slight chance of
measurable rain for roughly the ern half of the region. It will
certainly cloud up a bit. The feature will then begin to damp out
and move off toward the nern CONUS, leaving weak ridging aloft and
increasing swrly low level flow behind.
The deterministic GFS has trended faster and deeper with
cyclogenesis across the central Plains into the upper Midwest mid
week, in fact, the 00Z GFS and EC solutions are similar in pattern
but different by 24 hrs. This introduced some doubt in whether the
PAH forecast area will receive any rainfall by Wed (Day 7).
Furthermore, a low level fetch into our region from ern TX, if it
holds, would restrict moisture return for shower and tstm
development. For now, slight to low chance PoPs were used in the
forecast Tue night/Wed, which is less than what the initialization
blend provided.
Temperatures are expected to steadily rise throughout the extended
forecast period, to near seasonable levels.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1202 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
May flirt with MVFR ceilings at the onset of the period, but they
should settle in at lower VFR levels quickly this afternoon. A
batch of showers will push through KCGI later this afternoon, and
MVFR conditions will be possible with it. Most guidance shows
that area dissipating as it tries to reach KPAH and KEVV after
00Z. The main round of convection will move southeast through the
area from just after 06Z through 09Z or 10Z. Threw in some gusts
with IFR conditions, but did not mention TS at this time. The odds
of TS are very slim at any one point. IFR or low MVFR ceilings
will persist through daybreak and strong clearing is expected a
bit behind the cold front. Northwest winds will be the rule Friday
morning.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1252 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
WITH READINGS ALREADY APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...HAVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
MID MORNING SATELLITE PICS SHOW THE MOST EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN
OUR NW COUNTIES AND THE MOST SUN IN OUR SOUTHEAST. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT OBS...AND BLEND THE CONDITIONS INTO THE
FORECASTS FROM THE 06Z GFS AND 12Z NAM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING KEEPING TEMPS. THEREFORE HAVE UPDATED TO INPUT THE LATEST
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE GRIDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
TO THE EAST ALONG THE NC AND VA COAST. THIS IS KEEPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS
BEING ADVECTED NORTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WARM AND MOIST PATTERN
WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING NORTH INTO THE DAY AS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE
REGION AS WELL. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BEGIN TO RISE
BEFORE DAWN AND FURTHER INTO THE DAY. WARMER TEMPS ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STILL LEAVE QUITE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR THIS...HAVE LEFT THE AREA DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO THIS EVENING.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SET UP AS PRECIP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAKES IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 06Z WITH SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING MAKING TI INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY
BEFORE DAWN. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 50 KNOTS
WILL NOSE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY DAWN AND WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...THOUGH ELEVATED...WILL BRING IN THUNDER BY 10Z IN
THE WEST. FRIDAY...WITH THE FRONT...WILL BRING IN CATEGORICAL
POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE ONE QUESTION
IS THAT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...WILL THERE BE A THREAT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE AREA. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST...THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE SPORADIC AND GENERALLY WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION WIND GUSTS IN THE HWO FOR
THIS...THOUGH THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO BEGIN
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS ALIGNED
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AND DAMPEN...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A CUTOFF LOW BREAKING AWAY ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SLIDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE MODELS
SHOW UP BY THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER. GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR...HAVE FAVORED THE SLOWER SOLUTION...AND THEREFORE DID
UNDERCUT SOME OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO
POPS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BLEEDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS HAVE TRENDED
UP ALONG THE TENNESSEE/VIRGINIA BORDER INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST. DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO ARGUE GIVEN THE FORCING AND
SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF RAINFALL TO OUR AREA.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY EVENING AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN REBOUND BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS RETURN FLOW ENSUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
DESPITE SOME 3K FT CIGS AND LOWER TO THE SOUTH IN TN...THEY HAVE
BEEN UNABLE TO CROSS THE CUMBERLAND REGION THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP
MAINLY 4K TO 5K FT CIGS THROUGH THE DAY AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
AS THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF
SITES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1231 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Warm start to the day so far. In fact, should SDF stay at 64 for
the low for the day, it will tie the record warm minimum temperature
for the date, set back in 1977. BWG is at 64 for the day as well,
which would break the record last set in 1994. LEX and FFT both
reached 59 this morning, so their records are safe.
As for precip, we are still on track for a weakening line of showers
approaching our northwest forecast area this evening, or perhaps
some showers developing over that area. Latest local WRF runs
through 06Z and has a stronger line just northwest of the region at
that time. This matches up well with the end of the latest HRRR runs
as well. This band is in association with the northern vortmax, now
over western NE/KS, of the broad trough entering the Plains states.
Forecasting out in time, expect the worst of this band to perhaps
just clip our northern forecast area...but given the time of day
still think the worst it will produce is some brief gusty winds and
thunder.
The precipitable water available and forcing should be enough to
blanket the rest of the region at least with showers Friday morning,
so categorical pops still look good. Forecast QPF totals for the
event range from around a half inch over the northwest forecast area
to a quarter to half inch in the rest of the region. These totals
are in line with SPC ensemble means.
All that said, the forecast is in pretty good shape. Have sent out a
grid update to match current obs and make slight tweaks to pops,
that do not affect the overall zone forecast enough for an update.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Main challenge is the intensity of showers and storms tonight and
Friday as a dynamic upper low ejects out of the Four Corners region.
Model progs suggest some phasing of the northern and southern
streams, but the northern stream will dominate and the southern
stream wave will shear out as it lifts quickly NE into the Great
Lakes. Surface low will lift to near James Bay by early Friday, with
the cold front dragging through the Ohio Valley as it is left
behind.
Another unseasonably warm day today in the southerly flow ahead of
the front. However, clouds will be a limiting factor in temps, and
we can`t rule out a few spotty warm advection showers, especially
west of I-65. Max temp forecast is near MOS consensus, but with more
sunshine than advertised we could approach record highs near 80.
By tonight POPs ramp up to categorical, as the low-level jet cranks
up near 50 kt ahead of the front. SPC has trimmed the Day 1 Marginal
Risk back to near the Mississippi River, but leaves the Day 2
Marginal covering all over central KY and southern IN. Main factor
weighing against SVR potential is that the dynamics never quite
coincide with the moisture and instability, as it`s a weakening
system coming through near the diurnal minimum of instability. Will
carry embedded thunder, and gusty showers seem a fairly good bet
tonight. Will highlight potential for 40 mph gusts in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook and any graphics that go out this morning. Normally
would be inclined to bump up from guidance mins, but there should be
enough precip to drop temps into the mid 60s.
Will drop POPs quickly from NW-SE on Friday morning as the front
pushes through the northern half of the area. By Friday afternoon,
the front does hang up enough to warrant chance POPs south of a
Bowling Green to Richmond line into Friday night. Seasomable temps
return Friday night as much cooler air finally spills in behind the
front.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Cold front will make a slow exit, so we can`t rule out a few
lingering showers Sat morning near Lake Cumberland. Otherwise, cool
high pressure building from the north will bring quiet weather for
the weekend, with temps running slightly below normal for early
November.
By early next week, lingering upper trofiness left behind by the
Friday system will develop into a closed low over Arkansas. This
feature will get caught up in broader SW flow aloft, and lift
through the Ohio Valley by Monday night. GFS/ECMWF are showing
better agreement that this low will draw moisture northward into the
Ohio Valley, so will continue to carry 20-30 POP for Monday. Best
chance of light rain will be across south central Kentucky.
Dry and seasonable pattern Tue-Wed under surface high and shortwave
ridge aloft. Vigorous upper low will dig into the western CONUS by
Tuesday, then eject out across the Plains mid-week. This could be a
significant system for the Ohio Valley, but at this point all
sensible wx impacts look to hold off until at least Wed night/Thu.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1230 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Southerly flow ahead of an approaching weather system will continue
to transport moisture laden air into the region. Ceilings are
expected to remain around low VFR thresholds, though some temporary
drops to high MVFR will be possible. In general, expecting a SCT-
BKN deck around 2500-3000ft AGL this afternoon. Surface winds will
pick up as well with south to southwesterly winds of 10-12kts and
some gusts up to 15kts at times.
Convection associated with approaching surface front will move in
from the west after midnight. Some showers out ahead of the actual
front will be possible and those could drop ceilings and vsbys down
into the MVFR range. Conditions look to deteriorate after 06/09-10Z
as the surface front pushes into the region. Ceilings are likely to
drop into the low MVFR range, possibly down into high IFR range.
Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will be likely at all the
terminals through the end of the fcst period.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1023 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
MID MORNING SATELLITE PICS SHOW THE MOST EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN
OUR NW COUNTIES AND THE MOST SUN IN OUR SOUTHEAST. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT OBS...AND BLEND THE CONDITIONS INTO THE
FORECASTS FROM THE 06Z GFS AND 12Z NAM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING KEEPING TEMPS. THEREFORE HAVE UPDATED TO INPUT THE LATEST
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE GRIDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
TO THE EAST ALONG THE NC AND VA COAST. THIS IS KEEPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS
BEING ADVECTED NORTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WARM AND MOIST PATTERN
WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING NORTH INTO THE DAY AS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE
REGION AS WELL. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BEGIN TO RISE
BEFORE DAWN AND FURTHER INTO THE DAY. WARMER TEMPS ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STILL LEAVE QUITE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR THIS...HAVE LEFT THE AREA DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO THIS EVENING.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SET UP AS PRECIP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAKES IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 06Z WITH SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING MAKING TI INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY
BEFORE DAWN. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 50 KNOTS
WILL NOSE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY DAWN AND WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...THOUGH ELEVATED...WILL BRING IN THUNDER BY 10Z IN
THE WEST. FRIDAY...WITH THE FRONT...WILL BRING IN CATEGORICAL
POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE ONE QUESTION
IS THAT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...WILL THERE BE A THREAT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE AREA. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST...THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE SPORADIC AND GENERALLY WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION WIND GUSTS IN THE HWO FOR
THIS...THOUGH THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO BEGIN
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS ALIGNED
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AND DAMPEN...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A CUTOFF LOW BREAKING AWAY ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SLIDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE MODELS
SHOW UP BY THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER. GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR...HAVE FAVORED THE SLOWER SOLUTION...AND THEREFORE DID
UNDERCUT SOME OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO
POPS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BLEEDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS HAVE TRENDED
UP ALONG THE TENNESSEE/VIRGINIA BORDER INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST. DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO ARGUE GIVEN THE FORCING AND
SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF RAINFALL TO OUR AREA.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY EVENING AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN REBOUND BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS RETURN FLOW ENSUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
DESPITE SOME 3K FT CIGS AND LOWER TO THE SOUTH IN TN...THEY HAVE
BEEN UNABLE TO CROSS THE CUMBERLAND REGION THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP
MAINLY 4K TO 5K FT CIGS THROUGH THE DAY AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
AS THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF
SITES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
958 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Warm start to the day so far. In fact, should SDF stay at 64 for
the low for the day, it will tie the record warm minimum temperature
for the date, set back in 1977. BWG is at 64 for the day as well,
which would break the record last set in 1994. LEX and FFT both
reached 59 this morning, so their records are safe.
As for precip, we are still on track for a weakening line of showers
approaching our northwest forecast area this evening, or perhaps
some showers developing over that area. Latest local WRF runs
through 06Z and has a stronger line just northwest of the region at
that time. This matches up well with the end of the latest HRRR runs
as well. This band is in association with the northern vortmax, now
over western NE/KS, of the broad trough entering the Plains states.
Forecasting out in time, expect the worst of this band to perhaps
just clip our northern forecast area...but given the time of day
still think the worst it will produce is some brief gusty winds and
thunder.
The precipitable water available and forcing should be enough to
blanket the rest of the region at least with showers Friday morning,
so categorical pops still look good. Forecast QPF totals for the
event range from around a half inch over the northwest forecast area
to a quarter to half inch in the rest of the region. These totals
are in line with SPC ensemble means.
All that said, the forecast is in pretty good shape. Have sent out a
grid update to match current obs and make slight tweaks to pops,
that do not affect the overall zone forecast enough for an update.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Main challenge is the intensity of showers and storms tonight and
Friday as a dynamic upper low ejects out of the Four Corners region.
Model progs suggest some phasing of the northern and southern
streams, but the northern stream will dominate and the southern
stream wave will shear out as it lifts quickly NE into the Great
Lakes. Surface low will lift to near James Bay by early Friday, with
the cold front dragging through the Ohio Valley as it is left
behind.
Another unseasonably warm day today in the southerly flow ahead of
the front. However, clouds will be a limiting factor in temps, and
we can`t rule out a few spotty warm advection showers, especially
west of I-65. Max temp forecast is near MOS consensus, but with more
sunshine than advertised we could approach record highs near 80.
By tonight POPs ramp up to categorical, as the low-level jet cranks
up near 50 kt ahead of the front. SPC has trimmed the Day 1 Marginal
Risk back to near the Mississippi River, but leaves the Day 2
Marginal covering all over central KY and southern IN. Main factor
weighing against SVR potential is that the dynamics never quite
coincide with the moisture and instability, as it`s a weakening
system coming through near the diurnal minimum of instability. Will
carry embedded thunder, and gusty showers seem a fairly good bet
tonight. Will highlight potential for 40 mph gusts in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook and any graphics that go out this morning. Normally
would be inclined to bump up from guidance mins, but there should be
enough precip to drop temps into the mid 60s.
Will drop POPs quickly from NW-SE on Friday morning as the front
pushes through the northern half of the area. By Friday afternoon,
the front does hang up enough to warrant chance POPs south of a
Bowling Green to Richmond line into Friday night. Seasomable temps
return Friday night as much cooler air finally spills in behind the
front.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Cold front will make a slow exit, so we can`t rule out a few
lingering showers Sat morning near Lake Cumberland. Otherwise, cool
high pressure building from the north will bring quiet weather for
the weekend, with temps running slightly below normal for early
November.
By early next week, lingering upper trofiness left behind by the
Friday system will develop into a closed low over Arkansas. This
feature will get caught up in broader SW flow aloft, and lift
through the Ohio Valley by Monday night. GFS/ECMWF are showing
better agreement that this low will draw moisture northward into the
Ohio Valley, so will continue to carry 20-30 POP for Monday. Best
chance of light rain will be across south central Kentucky.
Dry and seasonable pattern Tue-Wed under surface high and shortwave
ridge aloft. Vigorous upper low will dig into the western CONUS by
Tuesday, then eject out across the Plains mid-week. This could be a
significant system for the Ohio Valley, but at this point all
sensible wx impacts look to hold off until at least Wed night/Thu.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 615 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Low level moisture will move into the area today ahead of an
approaching cold front set to arrive on Friday. Ahead of this
feature, expecting current VFR ceilings to possibly drop into the
IFR range for a period of time this morning in the afternoon.
Upstream obs have gone down right around the MVFR/IFR threshold,
although BWG has yet to see anyting below 5 K feet. Will stay on the
optimistic side of IFR, but do feel there will be a period of below
fuel alternate. Less confidence at SDF where MVFR clouds would be
most likely from late morning to mid afternoon, which is generally
the least favorable time of day for this to occur. Think LEX will
stay far enough east that MVFR conditions won`t occur until later
tonight.
Expect generally south surface winds to pick up around 10 mph
through the day, with all sites going VFR through the afternoon. A
few sprinkles may be around at times this afternoon, but not enough
to mention.
Rain and perhaps a few t-storm will increase in coverage from west
to east after Midnight. Any shower will bring a reduction in
visibility, and expect ceilings to drop into the MVFR range. Gusty
SSW winds may be enough to limit the potential for lower than MVFR
ceilings.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1218 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
INTENSE LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SENDING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1218 AM UPDATE...CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AS
OF MIDNIGHT WITH SPOTTY VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN A FEW SPOTS
FROM THE ALLAGASH TO EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. EVEN A BIT OF VERY
LIGHT SLEET MIXED IN AT WFO CARIBOU. MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVERNIGHT EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
REGION...BUT THAT LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS AND THE MIDNIGHT OBSERVATIONS. DID NEED TO LOWER TEMPS A
FEW MORE DEGREES IN THE AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR AS TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
BELOW THE FORECAST LOWS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM
THE NORTHWEST...SPILLING OVER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AND NORTH
OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR
IS SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND AS FAR
SOUTH AS CARIBOU LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL ONLY GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT MOST PRECIP WILL
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AND THE FEATURE WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND A
DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME FOG TOWARDS
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...FIRST
IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND THEN SPREAD NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE TO
LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR AND MACHIAS. TEMPERATURES IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
WILL ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY...BUT BANGOR WILL
RECEIVE ANOTHER DAY IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CWA WL SEE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP IN ERNEST AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM. DWPTS EXPECTED TO RISE THRU THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
CREEP UP INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE AS WMFNT LIFTS THRU. THIS WL LKLY
RESULT IN NRLY STEADY TEMPS DRG THE OVRNGT HRS, IF NOT WARMING
SLIGHTLY. MINS WL LKLY BE REACHED DRG THE EVNG. INITIALLY ABUNDANT
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACRS MOST OF
CWA THRU BULK OF THE NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A H7 WV ROTATES THRU
CENTER SXNS ARND 06Z LEADING TO SCTD SHOWERS AS OMEGA INCREASES. AS
WV SCOOTS OFF INTO CANADA EXPECT PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL AS FOG TO BE
PRESENT ACRS CWA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
FOG EXPECTED TO LAST THRU THE MID-MRNG HRS ON FRIDAY BFR WINDS PICK
UP AS STRONG SFC LOW DEEPENS IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH
AND SHUD ONLY RESULT IN SCTD SHOWERS BY AFTN AND CONTG INTO THE EVNG
AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF ROTATES THRU ERN CANADA. AFT A WARM DAY ON
FRIDAY IN WAKE OF WMFNT LIFTING THRU, EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO NR
NORMAL SAT AFTN WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS EXPECTED FOLLOWING FROPA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL BRING US A BREEZY AND
COOLER END TO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD,
BREEZY AND DRY WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S
DOWNEAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS AS THE LARGE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION. TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING TO
OUR NORTHWEST MAY BRING A BREEZY OCCLUSION THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH
SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT ALL SITES INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
DEVIATION MIGHT BE TOWARDS CAR AND FVE BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOG FORMATION TOWARDS BGR AND BHB BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THESE SITES WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT ALL SITES THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR AND IFR IN DRIZZLE AND FOG TO START THE
SHORT TERM. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING AS STRONG WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. BRIEF ROUND
OF MVFR SHOWERS EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS FORECAST EXCEPT SOME FOG
LATER THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. SCA
THRESHOLDS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED FRI AFTERNOON IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WITH GALES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FOISY/MCW
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/FOISY/MCW/FARRAR
MARINE...CB/FOISY/MCW/FARRAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE WIND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL
ON FRIDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THE ARRIVAL OF A 50 KT 925 MB LLJ 06Z TO 12Z
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUGGESTS A RISK FOR
STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZING DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN. STILL THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE
SHARP SO WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH. TRENDS IN THE HRRR ARE
FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH TIME ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AS
FAR AS SEVERE GUSTS I THINK THE RISK IS LOW...BUT VALUES OVER 40
MPH ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. SOME SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS EVENT. THE SPC MARGINAL RISK LOOKS GOOD FOR LATER
TONIGHT.
THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT SOONER FRIDAY MORNING SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED DOWNWARD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF DRY WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE MORE
TYPICAL OF FALL...WHICH TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FORECAST GETS INCREASINGLY CHALLENGING WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
ENTERING THE PICTURE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BOTH ECM/GFS TAKE A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.
LATE THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL
AID IN THE GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT FLOW
THEN DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM. AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE MIDWEST. LONG RANGE MODELS TEND TO DIVERGE AT THIS
POINT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. WHILE BOTH ECM/GFS PICK UP ON A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THE PAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN
PLACING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY. OVERALL I
KEPT THINGS DRY AS NOT MUCH SUPPORT EXISTS FOR SHOWERS...BUT IT
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AT LEAST SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA HINDERED WITH SOME CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.
THINGS GET A BIT TRICKY BY WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A BIG SPREAD IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE GFS IS LESS
PRONOUNCED...FURTHER NORTH/WEST AND QUICKER IN BRINING PRECIPITATION
IN BY WEDNESDAY AND EXITING BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE ECM ON THE OTHER
HAND DEVELOPS A SLOWER CUTOFF SYSTEM. THIS EVENTUALLY BECOMES A
STRONGER SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECM SOLUTION WOULD HOLD
OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WOULD
SPELL OUT A RAINY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD DRAG ON INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE WITH RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES BUT LOW
WITH TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY
AREAS MAY SEE CIGS THAT BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS TIMING IN THE LOWER CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH
POSSIBILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT AND CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
OCCUR AFTER 03Z...PROGRESSING FROM SW TO NE. KAZO AND KBTL WILL
LIKELY SEE THE ONSET OF THE LOWER CATEGORIES. SHOWERS WILL EXPAND
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST BETWEEN 11Z-15Z....SUSTAINED
AT 15-20KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
CLOSE CALL FOR GALES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
WAVES AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE SLIGHTLY AFTER LAST WEEK/S RAIN.
THE SLOW FALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR JACKSON TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR LUDINGTON IS POSSIBLE WITH MANY
AREAS RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE
RIVERS TO INCH BACK UP...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ847>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR LMZ844>846.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAM
HYDROLOGY...04
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
408 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AHEAD OF A TROUGH/FRONT FROM NW MN TO CNTRL
NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS SUSTAINED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW
HAS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE KEWEENAW WHERE TEMPS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
TONIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OR
THICKEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAIL.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
TOWARD WRN MN WILL BRING PCPN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S COULD
BRING SOME DRIZZLE INTO THE WEST HALF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO LINGER DONWSTREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY MAY BE HELD TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE FOCUS ON WINDS FOR
FRI AND THEN LK EFFECT POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT. STRONG NW WINDS
GUSTING AT LEAST TO NEAR ADVY CRITERIA WL IMPACT EXPOSED LOCATIONS
NEAR LK SUP TO THE SW OF RAPIDLY DEEPENING LO PRES IN SE CANADA.
THESE STRONG NW WINDS WL ADVECT AIR SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LK EFFECT
PCPN INTO THE AREA ON FRI. BUT THE BEST CHC FOR THIS PCPN WL BE LATE
FRI NGT/SAT MRNG AS AN UPR DISTURBANCE/DEEP MSTR ARRIVE OVER THE
AREA. AN INCOMING RDG AXIS WL END THE LK EFFECT PCPN QUICKLY LATE
SAT AND BRING DRY AND MILDER WX FOR SUN INTO TUE.
FRI...LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY ON FRI MRNG WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWING THIS LO DEEPENING TO AN IMPRESSIVE 960-965MB. ATTENDANT COLD
FNT WL BE THRU NEWBERRY BY 12Z FRI. THEN UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY
THE SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN THIS LO AND HI PRES BLDG FM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WNW H925 WINDS UP TO 35-40 KTS MAINLY
DURING THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD UNDER THE STRONG CAA PATTERN BEHIND THE
FNT WL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS AT LEAST CLOSE TO ADVY CRITERIA AT EXPOSED
LOCATIONS NEAR LK SUP. THE GRADIENT/WINDS ARE FCST TO DIMINISH A BIT
DURING THE AFTN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF AXIS OF SHARPER PRES RISES TO
THE E. ALTHOUGH DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FROPA WL END ANY LINGERING WDSPRD RA OVER THE E SOON
AFTER 12Z... SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE SOME LK EFFECT
TYPE PCPN WL DVLP DOWNWIND OF LK SUP IN THE CYC WNW FLOW AS H85
TEMPS DROP TO ARND -5C BY 00Z SAT. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW
AN INVERTED V TYPE T/TD PROFILE DVLPG FM THE SFC TO NEAR H85...WITH
THIS LLVL DRYING LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS LLVL DRY AIR MAY LOWER THE WBLB TEMP
SUFFICIENTLY FOR SOME SN TO MIX WITH THE RA LATER IN THE DAY OVER
THE HIER TERRAIN.
FRI NGT/SAT...BULK OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER
SHRTWV/AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND SOME DEEPER MSTR WL ARRIVE
LATE FRI NGT AND IMPACT THE AREA BEFORE EXITING TO THE E DURING SAT
AFTN...WHEN SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW WL
ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC SUPPORT COINCIDENT WITH H85 THERMAL TROF/TEMPS
AS LO AS -7 TO -8C JUSTIFY SOME LIKELY POPS IN AREAS FAVORED BY THE
FCST WNW FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE MANY OF THE
MODELS SHOW SOME SHARPER LLVL CNVGC. SINCE THE DEEPER MSTR IS FCST
TO EXTEND INTO THE DGZ AT LEAST FOR A TIME...THERE COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATING SN OVER THE HIER TERRAIN AREAS INTO SAT MRNG WHERE AND
WHEN SFC TEMPS WL BE AT LEAST CLOSE TO 32. BUT WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE
32 AT MOST PLACES...ANY SN ACCUM SHOULD BE LOCALIZED.
SAT NGT/SUN...ANY LINGERING LK EFFECT PCPN/CLDS ON SAT EVNG SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS UNDER LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES AND PASSES TO THE E...WITH H925 WSHFT TO THE SW
OVERNGT UNDER FCST 12HR HGT RISES UP TO 150M. EXPECTED CLRG SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE EVNG...BUT INCRSG WSW WIND
OVERNGT UNDER SHARPER GRADIENT TO THE N OF HI CENTER MOVING INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY WL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL TEMP DROP. A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO ARND 5C WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS ON
SUN RISING TO AT LEAST NEAR 50...WARMEST OVER THE W.
EXTENDED...ACYC SW FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES MIGRATING THRU THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND THEN OFF THE E COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WL BRING
DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS WITH H85 TEMPS NOT FAR FM 5C FOR
MON AND TUE. THE NEXT CHC FOR RA WL ARRIVE NEXT WED AS SHRTWV/SFC LO
PRES MOVE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPR LKS PER THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN MSLP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
SSWRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS
GREATEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THU
AFTERNOON AT KSAW WITH A BIT OF MIXING OCCURING TO HELP RAISE THE
CLOUD HEIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO KIWD AND KCMX
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT
AS A S WIND UP TO 25-30KTS BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING E THRU SE CANADA
AND A COLD FRONT DRIFTING INTO MN ADVECTS MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA.
THE FRONT TO THE W WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRES
CENTER DEEPENS OVER ONTARIO...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO A
STRENGTHENING WNW WIND. BECAUSE THE LO TO THE N WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AND ADVECT COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS...
STABILITY WILL DECREASE AND ENHANCE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE
LAKE SURFACE. OPTED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ALMOST
THE ENTIRE LAKE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH W-E ON FRI AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLOWLY SLACKENS TO THE NE OF HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. BUT W BACKING SSW WINDS
UP TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN INTO MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO
THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND TO THE EAST COAST.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ012>014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ246>251-265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/
FRIDAY FOR LSZ241>245-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/
FRIDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1206 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AHEAD OF A TROUGH/FRONT FROM NW MN TO CNTRL
NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS SUSTAINED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW
HAS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE KEWEENAW WHERE TEMPS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
TONIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OR
THICKEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAIL.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
TOWARD WRN MN WILL BRING PCPN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S COULD
BRING SOME DRIZZLE INTO THE WEST HALF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO LINGER DONWSTREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY MAY BE HELD TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
AT 00Z FRI...A 995MB SFC LOW WILL BE W-NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF
A SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN. THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA BY
12Z FRI WITH THE SFC LOW AT 985MB NEAR JAMES BAY (THE NAM 18Z/12 NAM
IS AN OUTLIER...BUT THIS REPRESENTS THE CONSENSUS). A SHARP COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z FRI...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -5C BY FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE W AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS E IN THE NW WINDS. LATE THU NIGHT AND
FRI WILL SEE STRONG W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH IN AREAS EXPOSED TO W-NW WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
850MB TEMPS WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FRI NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE FALLING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC...WILL ALLOW FOR
PTYPE TO TRANSITION MORE TO SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE W HALF FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. ERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE RAIN THAN
SNOW. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BOOST PRECIP LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AS GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS WARMED BY LAKE
INFLUENCE.
WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS SUN INTO TUE BEHIND A SFC RIDGE THAT
SHIFTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED PRECIP FROM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT THINK MOST PLACE WILL STAY DRY. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 50 MON AND TUE.
WED IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS PERFORMANCE IS QUITE POOR. WILL JUST
RUN WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
SSWRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS
GREATEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THU
AFTERNOON AT KSAW WITH A BIT OF MIXING OCCURING TO HELP RAISE THE
CLOUD HEIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO KIWD AND KCMX
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
EXPECT SOME FOG TO LINGER OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF LK SUP THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING S WIND TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN HIGH
PRES MOVING E THRU SE CANADA AND A LOW PRES TROUGH DRIFTING INTO MN
ADVECTS MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE TROUGH OVER THE W WILL CROSS
THE UPPER LAKES ON THU NIGHT AS A LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENS OVER
ONTARIO... BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO A STRENGTHENING WNW WIND.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST LATE
THU NIGHT AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY AS THE STABILITY
DECREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
LAKE WATERS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLOWLY SLACKENS TO THE NE OF HIGH PRES
BUILDING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. BUT W BACKING SW WINDS UP TO
25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN INTO MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY AND TO THE EAST COAST.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ012>014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ246>251-265>267.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>245-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1159 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR COLORADO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY...AND ALSO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CLIMBING STEADILY. AS WE
COOL TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW BY 06Z
WE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THE HRRR RUC SHOWS THIS TREND.
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AND THAT COULD LIMIT THE NEED FOR A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY AS WE MAY SETTLE IN ON A MAINLY STRATUS DECK. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED
UPSTREAM TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP DURING THE
DAY. SO I WILL KEEP THE 70 DEGREE TEMPS GOING.
DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE TRACKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NAM SHOW SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY 08Z
TO 12Z. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS WAVE...THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO
STRONGER GUSTS. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC LOOKS
GOOD.
I ENDED UP ADDING A RISK FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE THU
AFTERNOON FORECAST. THERE IS WEAK WAVE LIFTING OUT OF ERN TX THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MODELS MOISTEN UP THE DGZ AND SHOW LIFT AROUND 21Z. MOST MODELS DO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT SOME POINT THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
FALL WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE LONG TERM PACKAGE WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER IN
THE PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FAR DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEKEND. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S
NORTH OF THE GR METRO AREA WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 ELSEWHERE. THOUGH DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE THEME...GFS DEPICTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT
QUICKLY ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN LOW. WHILE THE ECM IS LARGELY DRY..
A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR AND EAST OF LUDINGTON EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF WHAT FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO
ANYTHING MEASURABLE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE THE THEME GOING
INTO MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WE
SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RETURN TO SOME CLOUD COVER BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A BIT OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTH...INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY.
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AROUND VETERANS DAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXIST FURTHER EAST...A STORM SYSTEM ROUND BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECM AND GFS DIVERGE GREATLY ON
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER...STRONGER SYSTEM AND
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE ECM ON THE OTHER
HAND KEEPS THE SYSTEM RATHER WEAK WITH JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS.
OVERALL...RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE THEME GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
CLOUDS AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL BE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY IFR IS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDS COULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY BUT MVFR AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DURING MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS RISE ABOVE
3000 FEET.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR AND IFR AS RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
LOOKS LIKE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY
EVENING WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR GALES. WILL NOT GO WITH
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT KEEP THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE SLIGHTLY AFTER LAST WEEK/S RAIN.
THE SLOW FALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR JACKSON TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR LUDINGTON IS POSSIBLE WITH MANY
AREAS RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE
RIVERS TO INCH BACK UP...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...04
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1137 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE VISIBILITY CONTINUED TO BE AROUND A MILE AT KDLH AND KCOQ. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WE WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. VISIBILITIES HAVE
IMPROVED FOR THE TIME AT KDLH...BUT KCOQ WAS AT 0.5SM. SURFACE
WINDS AT KDLH/KMZH WERE SOUTH AS OF 03Z...AND GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ELIMINATING THE MARINE INFLUENCE. WE
WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND IF VSBYS
REMAIN NEAR WHAT THEY ARE NOW...WE WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EXPIRE FOR THE TWIN PORTS AREA. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
KEEP DENSE FOG A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS LIFTING TOWARD
OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATE. WE WILL TRIM BACK THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TONIGHT AND JUST MENTION IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS OF
DENSE FOG IN AND AROUND THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PULSE UP AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FOG AND DRIZZLE HAVE PERSISTED MUCH OF TODAY WITH ONLY A HINT
OF CLEARING APPARENT AROUND PRICE COUNTY WISCONSIN ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAVE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY
FOG/DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF AN E/NE WIND OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF THE STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE AND AROUND THE TWIN PORTS...WHICH HAVE SEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. THE EAST
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH/SE TONIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...WHICH WILL HELP SCOUR OUT AND LIFT THE FOG AROUND THE
DULUTH/SUPERIOR AREA...BUT JUST PUT THE FOCUS OF FOG ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE TWIN PORTS TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND TO 8 AM FOR THE NORTH
SHORE
THE CONTINUOUS PUSH OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
UPPER/SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS
RESPECTIVELY...INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HELP PRIME THE MID
LEVELS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDES BROAD
LARGE-SCALE LIFT...IN COMBINATION WITH AROUND 100-300 J/KG OF
700-500MB CAPE...RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. WILL SEE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION ERODE
EVEN FURTHER LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED. THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
THURSDAY...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TONIGHT AND
INCHING UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL BACK INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER N-CENTRAL MN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
SUMMARY...COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY. WARMER
WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN...EITHER OF RAIN OR
SNOW...IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MIGHT DEVELOP NEXT WEEK...AND DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK AND
TIMING...COULD BRING RAINS TO THE NORTHLAND SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
FRIDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN THE DAY IN CLOUDY AND COOL NW FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. THERE
COULD BE LINGERING SNOW FLAKES AND LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY WATERS AND ELY AREAS. INCREASED WINDS BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH SUGGEST THE WINDS COULD GUST TO 20
MPH OR MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO APPROACH 40
OVER NE MINNESOTA...AND REACH THE LOW 40S IN NW WISCONSIN. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...SO LEANED A LITTLE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE IN THE LOW 30S.
SATURDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE WNW FLOW AND BRING
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL CLEARING BACK TO
SUNNY SKIES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THOUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES....BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
BREEZY SSW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...AND THE SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S BOTH
DAYS.
TUESDAY...A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ITS
INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
MANITOBA/ONTARIO. THE TROUGH COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATER IN THE DAY...AND BEGIN TO FILTER
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ASSOCIATED PCPN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
STRATUS COVERED THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS FROM
300-1500FT FOR MOST AREAS. A POCKET OF VFR CEILINGS WAS OCCURRING
IN A PORTION OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS FAR NORTH AS KBRD.
HOWEVER...WE THINK THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND CEILINGS WILL
LOWER OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR...ALTHOUGH THE
LOWEST VSBYS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE LAKE SUPERIOR.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 57 36 40 / 40 70 20 0
INL 48 49 34 37 / 60 80 60 10
BRD 53 56 35 42 / 50 70 20 0
HYR 45 58 38 42 / 30 60 70 10
ASX 50 61 42 43 / 10 40 60 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ020-021.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1151 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015
Have updated precipitation trends into this afternoon based on the
latest radar trends. Small vort max seen in water vapor coincident
with low moisture convergence depicted by the latest runs of the
RAP is responsible for the showers moving northeastward into CWA
out of southern MO. The latest runs of the experimental HRRR have
done a good job of capturing this and show this area moving
across mainly the southeastern half of the CWA during of late
morning and afternoon hours. This area will move out of the area
by late this afternoon before additional shower and thunderstorms
move into the area from the west along a cold front this evening.
Otherwise...rest of the forecast still looks good.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015
As cold front approaches western Missouri, will see showers and
thunderstorms develop ahead of front over central Missouri by mid
morning increasing in coverage and spread east through the afternoon
hours. There is quite a bit of shear today, but little in the way of
instability. So could see some strong to marginally severe storms
with the main threat being damaging winds. Depending on cloud cover
and precipitation, high temperatures are hard to pin down. For now
have upper 60s to low 70s. Will see winds pickup from the south and
gust to near 25 mph at times.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015
In the meantime, a line of strong storms to develop along main
frontal boundary by late this afternoon and march east with the
cold front reaching central Missouri by early this evening. So
best area to see strong storms with the main front will be over
central Missouri, but as we lose daytime heating, storms to weaken
a bit as they slide east. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to
mid 50s.
Then by Friday morning precipitation moves out of forecast area as
surface ridge builds in. Some concern about a brief shot of showers
Friday night and Saturday as a secondary upper level shortwave
slides southeast through forecast area. For now have dry conditions,
though will have increasing clouds through this period. Otherwise,
colder air to filter in with highs only in the low to mid 50s by
Sunday.
By Monday, surface ridge moves off to the east allowing southerly
winds to return once again and temperatures will begin to moderate.
By Tuesday and Wednesday, highs will be near normal in the upper 50s
to low 60s. Some timing, placement and strength differences among
the extended models for the next weather system as it approaches
Tuesday night and Wednesday. So for now kept slight chance/chance
pops for this period.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015
Large area of showers will continue to move northeast across the
St. Louis metro TAF sites through most of the afternoon hours
bringing wet runways and low VFR or high MVFR conditions.
Otherwise a cold front will move through the area this evening
reaching KUIN and KCOU around 01Z and the St. Louis metro taf
sites around 06Z. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible
with it`s passage along with MVFR and a possible IFR conditions. A
few severe thunderstorms are also possible with isolated strong
wind gusts. Gusty southerly winds will veer northwesterly behind
the cold front and skies will clear from west to east around
sunrise as drier air moves into the area.
Specifics for KSTL: Showers are expected through 23Z with low VFR
or high MVFR conditions. Then a break in the rain is expected
until additional showers and isolated thunderstorms move into the
area around 05Z ahead of a cold front that will pass through the
terminal around 08Z. MVFR, possibly IFR conditions are expected
with the passage of these showers and storms. Gusty southerly
winds will veer northwesterly behind the cold front and skies will
clear from west to east around sunrise as drier air moves into the
area.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1010 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015
Have updated precipitation trends into this afternoon based on the
latest radar trends. Small vort max seen in water vapor coincident
with low moisture convergence depicted by the latest runs of the
RAP is responsible for the showers moving northeastward into CWA
out of southern MO. The latest runs of the experimental HRRR have
done a good job of capturing this and show this area moving
across mainly the southeastern half of the CWA during of late
morning and afternoon hours. This area will move out of the area
by late this afternoon before additional shower and thunderstorms
move into the area from the west along a cold front this evening.
Otherwise...rest of the forecast still looks good.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015
As cold front approaches western Missouri, will see showers and
thunderstorms develop ahead of front over central Missouri by mid
morning increasing in coverage and spread east through the afternoon
hours. There is quite a bit of shear today, but little in the way of
instability. So could see some strong to marginally severe storms
with the main threat being damaging winds. Depending on cloud cover
and precipitation, high temperatures are hard to pin down. For now
have upper 60s to low 70s. Will see winds pickup from the south and
gust to near 25 mph at times.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015
In the meantime, a line of strong storms to develop along main
frontal boundary by late this afternoon and march east with the
cold front reaching central Missouri by early this evening. So
best area to see strong storms with the main front will be over
central Missouri, but as we lose daytime heating, storms to weaken
a bit as they slide east. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to
mid 50s.
Then by Friday morning precipitation moves out of forecast area as
surface ridge builds in. Some concern about a brief shot of showers
Friday night and Saturday as a secondary upper level shortwave
slides southeast through forecast area. For now have dry conditions,
though will have increasing clouds through this period. Otherwise,
colder air to filter in with highs only in the low to mid 50s by
Sunday.
By Monday, surface ridge moves off to the east allowing southerly
winds to return once again and temperatures will begin to moderate.
By Tuesday and Wednesday, highs will be near normal in the upper 50s
to low 60s. Some timing, placement and strength differences among
the extended models for the next weather system as it approaches
Tuesday night and Wednesday. So for now kept slight chance/chance
pops for this period.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015
An initial surge of showers is expected late this morning and
midday for COU and the STL metro TAF sites and should last for a
few hours. Also during this time, MVFR ceilings are expected to
overspread the region. After a short break, a new, stronger line
of TSRA is expected to develop just ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon and track west to east thru, mainly during the
evening hours at the TAF sites. This cold front should end any
remaining rain threat and rapidly clear out the clouds. Otherwise,
southerly winds are expected to increase and become gusty during
the late morning and then continue thru the evening, veering only
slightly from the SW during that time. Cold FROPA set for late
tonight for all TAF sites with a moderate NW wind set for Friday.
Marginal LLWS conditions approached this evening but will get
messy with existing convection also anticipated.
Specifics for KSTL: An initial surge of showers is expected late
this morning and should last for a few hours and will likely, at
some point, be accompanied by MVFR conditions. After a short
break during the late afternoon and much of the evening, a new,
stronger line of TSRA is expected to move in late this evening just
ahead of the cold front. Some stronger gusts may occur at the
initial onset of these TSRA but will let subsequent shifts add in
as confidence grows. Passage of the cold front should end any
remaining rain threat and rapidly clear out the clouds. Otherwise,
southerly winds are expected to increase and become gusty during
the late morning and then continue thru the evening, veering only
slightly from the SW during that time. Cold FROPA set for around
12z/Friday with NW winds to follow.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
929 PM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
WEAK ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF EASTERN WY CONTINUES TO BRING AREAS OF
VERY LIGHT PCPN TO OUR FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING...WITH CLEARING SKIES NOTED IN OUR WEST FROM
HARLOWTON AND ROUNDUP TO COLUMBUS AND BILLINGS. AS PCPN TAPER OFF
TONIGHT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WESTERLY COMPONENT OF
WIND CERTAINLY LIMITS OUR FOG POTENTIAL...BUT FEEL THAT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT PATCHY VALLEY FOG...SUCH
AS THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING. HAVE UPDATED TO ADD MENTION OF FOG FROM
6-15Z...AND HAVE LOWERED SKY COVER QUICKER ACROSS OUR WEST HALF
PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 20S IN OUR WEST TO AROUND 30 IN OUR EAST...WITH AREAS NEAR
THE DAKOTAS BORDER MODERATED BY THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROF WAS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROF AXIS IS
CURRENTLY JUST TO OUR WEST AND WILL SLIDE EAST OVER OUR REGION
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO OUR PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. DURING THIS TIME...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WE DO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG IN THE
EASTERN ZONES.
FOR THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A TEMPORARY BREAK WITH PERIOD OF
DRIER AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AND CYCLONIC. AS SUCH...PROGS PICK UP ON
CLIPPER TYPE SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN INTO MONTANA LATE IN THE DAY
AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. 850MB TEMP PROGS DO GO BELOW FREEZING SO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IF NOT ALL SNOW. SOME PROGS AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST HEFTY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THOUGH IT IS NOT A CONSENSUS. SO WHILE WE ARE CONFIDENT
OUR MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS WILL SEE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WE FEEL THERE IS ONLY A CHANCE AT THIS POINT
OF IT PRODUCING MORE THAN A COUPLE OF INCHES FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE PROGS AND
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS FOR CLUES AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE MAY NEED
ADVISORIES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
FOOTHILLS.
SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM RACES SOUTHEAST
AND 500MB RIDGING TAKES OVER. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS SATURDAY...WITH BACKING MID LEVEL FLOW PROGGED FOR SUNDAY
AS TROF MOVES ON TO WEST COAST. OUR PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE
WEEKEND IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG WINDS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...PRIMARILY THE GAP FLOW
AREAS AROUND LIVINGSTON AND NYE. I TWEAKED WINDS UP WITH MINOR
PLACEMENT ADJUSTMENTS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY. A LARGE OPEN
TROF OVER THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE SOME MINOR WAVES EJECT THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY LEADING INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
PROGS WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEMS
PROGRESSION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH
RELATIVELY FAST...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD SLOW DOWN
OR POSSIBLY CUT OFF. SO THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY HAS LOW
CONFIDENCE AND MAINLY BLENDED PARAMETERS FOR NOW. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT AT KSHR AND KMLS
WHERE LOW MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. WITH VFR CONDITIONS
TAKING HOLD AFTER 12Z. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FOG NEAR KMLS
FROM 11-15Z. LOW RANGE VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KLVM STRATUS WILL
PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS CREATING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ABOVE 4000 FEET AGL. DOBBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/043 028/042 026/051 031/054 032/050 031/039 024/042
00/B 42/J 00/B 00/U 01/B 43/W 31/B
LVM 021/036 022/036 022/044 026/047 029/045 026/036 022/037
12/W 53/J 00/N 00/N 13/W 43/J 31/N
HDN 026/045 028/044 023/054 027/055 029/053 031/041 024/043
10/B 32/J 00/U 00/U 01/B 53/W 32/J
MLS 031/047 030/045 026/054 029/056 031/053 032/042 025/042
20/B 22/J 00/U 00/U 01/B 33/W 32/J
4BQ 030/047 027/044 025/056 027/057 030/056 031/045 025/043
31/B 23/J 00/U 00/U 01/B 34/W 33/W
BHK 030/043 025/041 022/052 026/056 029/053 028/041 023/040
31/E 23/W 00/U 00/U 01/U 23/W 43/J
SHR 025/044 026/041 019/052 026/054 027/053 029/041 021/042
20/B 33/W 10/U 00/U 01/B 44/W 32/J
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1044 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
ALOFT: THE LONGWAVE TROF THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE WRN USA
WILL SHIFT E INTO THE CNTRL USA. THE SHORTWAVE TROF THAT INITIATED
THE SQLN LAST NIGHT HAS RACED N INTO SD AND THE DRY SLOT IS NOW
OVERHEAD. THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS STILL TO THE W AND IT WILL
CROSS THE FCST AREA FROM 21Z-03Z/THU. FLAT W-WSW FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THEREAFTER. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ENTERING THE PAC NW AT
THIS TIME. IT WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AND BE
MOVING INTO WY/CO AROUND THIS TIME TOMORROW.
SURFACE: A COLD FRONT BISECTED THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE TO THE S AND E AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FCST AREA BY
21Z. A SMALL AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...BUT
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPR TROF WILL SEND A SFC TROF INTO NEB
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POST-MORTEM: THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY OVER-PRODUCED COMPARED TO
WHAT WAS EXPECTED 24 HRS AGO WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE JUST A FEW
SHWRS/TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL KS. A SOLID SQLN DEVELOPED ALONG THE
ENTIRE ERN BORDER OF CO 00Z-02Z AND TRACKED INTO CNTRL KS/NEB
BEFORE FALLING APART. PRECIP AMTS WERE GENERALLY .10 TO .20 BUT
SOME LOCATIONS OVER N-CNTRL KS WERE AS HIGH AS .30. THIS LINE
PRODUCED SVRL GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE PEAK G HERE AT THE OFFICE
WAS 49 MPH AT 1208 AM.
550 AM: CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED UP TO THE TRI-CITIES BUT STRATUS
IS NEARBY...LURKING BEHIND THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THRU
THE STRATUS WILL REINVADE.
TODAY: CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. THE DRY SLOT HAS
OVERTAKEN MUCH OF THE AREA. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE MID-LVL CLOUDS IN
THE TAIL OF THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED COMMA WILL CONT E...LEAVING A
LIMITED AREA OF M/SUNNY SKIES. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SUSTAINED SUN
TODAY WILL BE OVER N-CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SOLID BANK OF STRATUS
BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
THAT WILL ARRIVE AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU...BUT THE SRN FRINGE OF
IT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH OVER TIME DUE TO MIXING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING FOR ALL EXCEPT THE EXTREME SE
FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA (HEBRON NE-OSBORNE KS). EXPECT SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPS TODAY.
BOTH THE NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MSTR COULD BE DEEP ENOUGH
TO SATURATE THE DGZ...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A COUPLE BRIEF LATE
AFTERNOON SHWRS WITH THE UPR TROF. WAS INITIALLY GOING TO KEEP THE
FCST DRY...BUT AT THE LAST MIN DECIDED TO PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THE
FCST. NOT ALL THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE IT...BUT THE
08Z HRRR DOES AND THE NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS HAVE THE HINT.
TONIGHT: EVENING CLEARING/COLDER/DIMINISHING WINDS. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATE. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL FOR EARLY NOV.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
OVERVIEW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONAL/NEAR NORMAL
IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST NIGHTS IN THE 30S...
WHILE NORMAL LOWS AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO NOVEMBER ARE NOW FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MORE
INTERESTING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PLAINS SOMETIME BETWEEN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LATE PERIOD STORM SYSTEM COULD
EVEN BRING SNOW TO SOME AREAS ON THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON STORM TRACK AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BE A
PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING OPEN WAVE THAT WILL LACK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND THUS WILL BE
A BIT OF A DUD WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ONLY REACHING INTO THE 30S
EXPECT JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DURING ANY OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND THUS WILL ONLY
CALL FOR RAIN AND NO SNOW FOR THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD
FREEZE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WHERE WE WILL SEE THE EARLIER CLEARING SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 20S.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER IS HIGH. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW. THE 00Z GFS
AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE VERY QUICK TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW AND WOULD
HAVE THE UPPER LOW INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF WOULD STILL BE HOLDING THE UPPER LOW BACK OVER
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AT THAT TIME. THERE IS A NOTORIOUS BIAS OF
FORECAST MODELS EJECTING THESE UPPER LOWS TOO QUICKLY OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND THUS MAY BE A NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION MAKER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS WHERE THE STORM TRACK IS FAVORABLE. IT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE MUCH CONFIDENCE CAN BE HAD IN A FORECAST STORM
TRACK. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR WRAPPING IN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES
TO AN END...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND STORM TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
THE SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSED THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. STRATUS HAS
ADVECTED SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND THIS IS EXECTED TO LINGER
THRU MID AFTN BEFORE SCOURING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES. CIG
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM IFR TO MVFR AND EXPECT CIGS TO
VARY AT THE TERMINALS AT TIMES. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN BUT CHCS DO NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE JUST YET AS BETTER CHCS FOR THIS EXIST TO THE WEST AND
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
551 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
...THE MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IS NOW OVER
AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THE NEXT SVRL DAYS...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
ALOFT: THE LONGWAVE TROF THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE WRN USA
WILL SHIFT E INTO THE CNTRL USA. THE SHORTWAVE TROF THAT INITIATED
THE SQLN LAST NIGHT HAS RACED N INTO SD AND THE DRY SLOT IS NOW
OVERHEAD. THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS STILL TO THE W AND IT WILL
CROSS THE FCST AREA FROM 21Z-03Z/THU. FLAT W-WSW FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THEREAFTER. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ENTERING THE PAC NW AT
THIS TIME. IT WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AND BE
MOVING INTO WY/CO AROUND THIS TIME TOMORROW.
SURFACE: A COLD FRONT BISECTED THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE TO THE S AND E AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FCST AREA BY
21Z. A SMALL AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...BUT
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPR TROF WILL SEND A SFC TROF INTO NEB
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POST-MORTEM: THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY OVER-PRODUCED COMPARED TO
WHAT WAS EXPECTED 24 HRS AGO WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE JUST A FEW
SHWRS/TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL KS. A SOLID SQLN DEVELOPED ALONG THE
ENTIRE ERN BORDER OF CO 00Z-02Z AND TRACKED INTO CNTRL KS/NEB
BEFORE FALLING APART. PRECIP AMTS WERE GENERALLY .10 TO .20 BUT
SOME LOCATIONS OVER N-CNTRL KS WERE AS HIGH AS .30. THIS LINE
PRODUCED SVRL GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE PEAK G HERE AT THE OFFICE
WAS 49 MPH AT 1208 AM.
550 AM: CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED UP TO THE TRI-CITIES BUT STRATUS
IS NEARBY...LURKING BEHIND THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THRU
THE STRATUS WILL REINVADE.
TODAY: CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. THE DRY SLOT HAS
OVERTAKEN MUCH OF THE AREA. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE MID-LVL CLOUDS IN
THE TAIL OF THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED COMMA WILL CONT E...LEAVING A
LIMITED AREA OF M/SUNNY SKIES. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SUSTAINED SUN
TODAY WILL BE OVER N-CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SOLID BANK OF STRATUS
BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
THAT WILL ARRIVE AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU...BUT THE SRN FRINGE OF
IT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH OVER TIME DUE TO MIXING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING FOR ALL EXCEPT THE EXTREME SE
FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA (HEBRON NE-OSBORNE KS). EXPECT SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPS TODAY.
BOTH THE NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MSTR COULD BE DEEP ENOUGH
TO SATURATE THE DGZ...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A COUPLE BRIEF LATE
AFTERNOON SHWRS WITH THE UPR TROF. WAS INITIALLY GOING TO KEEP THE
FCST DRY...BUT AT THE LAST MIN DECIDED TO PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THE
FCST. NOT ALL THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE IT...BUT THE
08Z HRRR DOES AND THE NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS HAVE THE HINT.
TONIGHT: EVENING CLEARING/COLDER/DIMINISHING WINDS. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATE. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL FOR EARLY NOV.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
OVERVIEW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONAL/NEAR NORMAL
IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST NIGHTS IN THE 30S...
WHILE NORMAL LOWS AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO NOVEMBER ARE NOW FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MORE
INTERESTING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PLAINS SOMETIME BETWEEN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LATE PERIOD STORM SYSTEM COULD
EVEN BRING SNOW TO SOME AREAS ON THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON STORM TRACK AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BE A
PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING OPEN WAVE THAT WILL LACK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND THUS WILL BE
A BIT OF A DUD WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ONLY REACHING INTO THE 30S
EXPECT JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DURING ANY OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND THUS WILL ONLY
CALL FOR RAIN AND NO SNOW FOR THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD
FREEZE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WHERE WE WILL SEE THE EARLIER CLEARING SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 20S.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER IS HIGH. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW. THE 00Z GFS
AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE VERY QUICK TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW AND WOULD
HAVE THE UPPER LOW INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF WOULD STILL BE HOLDING THE UPPER LOW BACK OVER
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AT THAT TIME. THERE IS A NOTORIOUS BIAS OF
FORECAST MODELS EJECTING THESE UPPER LOWS TOO QUICKLY OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND THUS MAY BE A NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION MAKER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS WHERE THE STORM TRACK IS FAVORABLE. IT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE MUCH CONFIDENCE CAN BE HAD IN A FORECAST STORM
TRACK. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR WRAPPING IN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES
TO AN END...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND STORM TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: WSHFT. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IFR/MVFR CIGS.
TODAY: MVFR/IFR STRATUS HAS TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE TERMINALS BUT
WILL MOVE BACK IN SHORTLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU 14Z-15Z.
EXPECT WSHFT FROM SW TO NW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN IFR CIGS AT
EAR SINCE LXN/ODX ARE AT 600-700 FT AT 12Z. ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD
LIFT TO MVFR 15Z-19Z. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KTS. BRIEF VFR SHWR
POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
TONIGHT: CLEARING AS MVFR CIGS DEPART. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
411 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
...THE MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IS NOW OVER
AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THE NEXT SVRL DAYS...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
ALOFT: THE LONGWAVE TROF THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE WRN USA
WILL SHIFT E INTO THE CNTRL USA. THE SHORTWAVE TROF THAT INITIATED
THE SQLN LAST NIGHT HAS RACED N INTO SD AND THE DRY SLOT IS NOW
OVERHEAD. THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS STILL TO THE W AND IT WILL
CROSS THE FCST AREA FROM 21Z-03Z/THU. FLAT W-WSW FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THEREAFTER. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ENTERING THE PAC NW AT
THIS TIME. IT WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AND BE
MOVING INTO WY/CO AROUND THIS TIME TOMORROW.
SURFACE: A COLD FRONT BISECTED THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE TO THE S AND E AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FCST AREA BY
21Z. A SMALL AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...BUT
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPR TROF WILL SEND A SFC TROF INTO NEB
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POST-MORTEM: THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY OVER-PRODUCED COMPARED TO
WHAT WAS EXPECTED 24 HRS AGO WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE JUST A FEW
SHWRS/TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL KS. A SOLID SQLN DEVELOPED ALONG THE
ENTIRE ERN BORDER OF CO 00Z-02Z AND TRACKED INTO CNTRL KS/NEB
BEFORE FALLING APART. PRECIP AMTS WERE GENERALLY .10 TO .20 BUT
SOME LOCATIONS OVER N-CNTRL KS WERE AS HIGH AS .30. THIS LINE
PRODUCED SVRL GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE PEAK G HERE AT THE OFFICE
WAS 49 MPH AT 1208 AM.
TODAY: CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. THE DRY SLOT HAS
OVERTAKEN MUCH OF THE AREA. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE MID-LVL CLOUDS IN
THE TAIL OF THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED COMMA WILL CONT E...LEAVING A
LIMITED AREA OF M/SUNNY SKIES. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SUSTAINED SUN
TODAY WILL BE OVER N-CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SOLID BANK OF STRATUS
BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
THAT WILL ARRIVE AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU...BUT THE SRN FRINGE OF
IT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH OVER TIME DUE TO MIXING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING FOR ALL EXCEPT THE EXTREME SE
FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA (HEBRON NE-OSBORNE KS). EXPECT SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPS TODAY.
BOTH THE NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MSTR COULD BE DEEP ENOUGH
TO SATURATE THE DGZ...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A COUPLE BRIEF LATE
AFTERNOON SHWRS WITH THE UPR TROF. WAS INITIALLY GOING TO KEEP THE
FCST DRY...BUT AT THE LAST MIN DECIDED TO PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THE
FCST. NOT ALL THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE IT...BUT THE
08Z HRRR DOES AND THE NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS HAVE THE HINT.
TONIGHT: EVENING CLEARING/COLDER/DIMINISHING WINDS. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATE. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL FOR EARLY NOV.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
OVERVIEW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONAL/NEAR NORMAL
IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST NIGHTS IN THE 30S...
WHILE NORMAL LOWS AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO NOVEMBER ARE NOW FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MORE
INTERESTING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PLAINS SOMETIME BETWEEN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LATE PERIOD STORM SYSTEM COULD
EVEN BRING SNOW TO SOME AREAS ON THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON STORM TRACK AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BE A
PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING OPEN WAVE THAT WILL LACK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND THUS WILL BE
A BIT OF A DUD WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ONLY REACHING INTO THE 30S
EXPECT JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DURING ANY OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND THUS WILL ONLY
CALL FOR RAIN AND NO SNOW FOR THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD
FREEZE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WHERE WE WILL SEE THE EARLIER CLEARING SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 20S.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER IS HIGH. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW. THE 00Z GFS
AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE VERY QUICK TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW AND WOULD
HAVE THE UPPER LOW INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF WOULD STILL BE HOLDING THE UPPER LOW BACK OVER
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AT THAT TIME. THERE IS A NOTORIOUS BIAS OF
FORECAST MODELS EJECTING THESE UPPER LOWS TOO QUICKLY OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND THUS MAY BE A NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION MAKER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS WHERE THE STORM TRACK IS FAVORABLE. IT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE MUCH CONFIDENCE CAN BE HAD IN A FORECAST STORM
TRACK. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR WRAPPING IN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES
TO AN END...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND STORM TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
REST OF TONIGHT: MVFR -SHRA WITH VCTS WILL EXIT EAR SHORTLY AND
MOVE THRU GRI 06Z-07Z. MVFR CIGS SHOULD TEMPORARILY TURN VFR
BEHIND THIS WEAKENING SQUALL LINE. S WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
THU: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS 14Z-15Z WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING
BACK IN. WSHFT TO NW. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
THU EVE: MVFR CIGS EXITING TO VFR SKC. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
920 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM FRIDAY...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR
WEST...STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
A COLD FRONT WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT FROM PITTSBURGH TO NASHVILLE TO
LITTLE ROCK. PREFRONTAL TROUGHING SHOWS UP IN SURFACE OBS JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL ALABAMA TO UPSTATE SC. THE
LATTER MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT..AS
THE HRRR SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AFTER 09Z...POTENTIALLY AIDED BY SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE A WEAKENING INVERSION ABOVE 925MB (PER KGSO/KFFC
RAOBS). THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS STILL WEAK AND SHALLOW...SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS STILL A LITTLE SHAKY AND
THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY THUNDER SEEM VERY LOW. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO
12Z. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH PLENTY OF
STRATUS AND MILE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS...BUT EVEN THE LATTER
MODEL...ALONG WITH THE LATEST ECMWF...MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PROGRESSION EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT THE
FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE FRONT
SEEMS TO OUTRUN ITS UPPER SUPPORT...WITH JET SUPPORT STAYING NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BEING WELL POST-FRONTAL. IN THIS
SITUATION WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED FRONT THERE IS A LITTLE CONCERN
THAT THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS COULD BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION...BUT
ALL OF THE TYPICAL NWP GUIDANCE ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DELAYS MUCH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE AND
THERE WILL ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES AT BEST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL LOCATIONS LIKELY-TO-CATEGORICAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS K INDICES FALL TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS TO SINGLE FIGURES AT
BEST...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AT OR BELOW AN INCH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY NOTE MODEST INSTABILITY...AND COMPUTED CAPE
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS REGISTER...AT BEST...100 TO 200J/KG IN
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ALSO
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW A
GRADUAL FALL WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
LIKELY TOWARD THE TRIAD WHERE VALUES NEAR 70 AROUND LUNCH TIME COULD
BE ONLY IN THE MID 50S BY 7 OR 8 PM. AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
EXPECT A FEW NOCTURNAL WIND GUSTS AT LEAST TO AROUND 20KT WITH 925MB
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30KT OVERNIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FOR MINS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR NOVEMBER 7. HOWEVER...EVENING COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 7 OCCURRING
AT MIDNIGHT...WITH PROBABLY ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THE RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM OF 65 AT FAYETTEVILLE...FROM 2003...BEING APPROACHED.
LEANING TOWARD THE MAV WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESS TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...A COOL MORNING TO
START SUNDAY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE
MID 50S NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH AND SETTLING JUST OFF THE NC COAST AND ACROSS GA/SC AS A
PROGRESSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. NWP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
DRIER ON SUNDAY AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TOUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE GUSTO.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A GOOD SURGE OF DRY AIR TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS A 1032MB HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHALLOW
STRATO-CUMULUS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
IT WILL BE CHILLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S... ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A STIRRING OF THE WIND SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION APPEARS IN THE OFFING FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LINGERING COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
RETREAT WESTWARD AS AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IN THE MO VALLEY MOVES
EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT. WHILE DETAILS AMONG THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE SETS VARY...AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND SC COAST
MONDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
POPS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH THE GREATEST POPS
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE SHEARING SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIFT
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASING.
WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ENDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CAD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE FAVORED
DAMMING REGION ALTHOUGH THEY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE.
EXPECT SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE THE MAIN DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM FRIDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN LOW STRATUS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE. CURRENT MVFR TO IFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER EVEN
FURTHER WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS (AND THE SLIGHT STIRRING)...AM NOT
EXPECTING VSBYS TO GO AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OTHERWISE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...LIKELY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AND THEN WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE
AVIATION CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY
BE JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE BY 12Z SUNDAY. AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL ACCORDINGLY IMPROVE AND AM EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/22
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...KRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
740 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...AND MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT SEEM TO CAPTURE IT...BUT ALMOST CERTAIN
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...IN MODEST
850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS NOTED ON THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS... LIKELY RESULTING IN THE PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING TOWARD THE TRIANGLE AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE NATURE
OF ITS PERSISTENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO NOTE THIS FEATURE IN THE
GRIDDED FORECASTS...DIMINISHING BY 00Z AND PROBABLY BEFORE IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. AFTERWARD...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
PERSISTENTLY HIGH OVERNIGHT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO AT LEAST AROUND
1.75 INCHES UNDER MODEST 850MB CONVERGENCE. ANY MID-LEVEL WAVES
MOVING THROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
WEAK. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO...BUT PROBABLY JUST NORTHWEST OF...THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH 06Z...BUT
OVERNIGHT...THE RAP AND THE HRRR WRF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS IN
DEPICTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM...
MOIST FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH A PARTICULAR FOCUS IN
AND NEAR THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DECENT CHANCE POPS WILL BE
INTRODUCED FOR PART OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOCUSED FROM THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO PART OF THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY AN AREA
OF BREAKS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
AS WELL AS THE HRRR WRF FORECAST DEPICT A RETURN TO LOW CLOUDS BY
LATE EVENING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHICH SHOULD MAKE
THE NIGHT...ON AVERAGE...MOSTLY CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN A LIGHT
BUT NOTICEABLE SOUTHWEST WIND MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS...BUT EVEN THE LATTER
MODEL...ALONG WITH THE LATEST ECMWF...MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PROGRESSION EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT THE
FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE FRONT
SEEMS TO OUTRUN ITS UPPER SUPPORT...WITH JET SUPPORT STAYING NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BEING WELL POST-FRONTAL. IN THIS
SITUATION WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED FRONT THERE IS A LITTLE CONCERN
THAT THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS COULD BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION...BUT
ALL OF THE TYPICAL NWP GUIDANCE ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DELAYS MUCH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE AND
THERE WILL ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES AT BEST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL LOCATIONS LIKELY-TO-CATEGORICAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS K INDICES FALL TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS TO SINGLE FIGURES AT
BEST...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AT OR BELOW AN INCH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY NOTE MODEST INSTABILITY...AND COMPUTED CAPE
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS REGISTER...AT BEST...100 TO 200J/KG IN
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ALSO
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW A
GRADUAL FALL WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
LIKELY TOWARD THE TRIAD WHERE VALUES NEAR 70 AROUND LUNCH TIME COULD
BE ONLY IN THE MID 50S BY 7 OR 8 PM. AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
EXPECT A FEW NOCTURNAL WIND GUSTS AT LEAST TO AROUND 20KT WITH 925MB
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30KT OVERNIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FOR MINS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR NOVEMBER 7. HOWEVER...EVENING COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 7 OCCURRING
AT MIDNIGHT...WITH PROBABLY ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THE RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM OF 65 AT FAYETTEVILLE...FROM 2003...BEING APPROACHED.
LEANING TOWARD THE MAV WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESS TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...A COOL MORNING TO
START SUNDAY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE
MID 50S NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH AND SETTLING JUST OFF THE NC COAST AND ACROSS GA/SC AS A
PROGRESSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. NWP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
DRIER ON SUNDAY AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TOUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE GUSTO.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A GOOD SURGE OF DRY AIR TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS A 1032MB HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHALLOW
STRATO-CUMULUS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
IT WILL BE CHILLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S... ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A STIRRING OF THE WIND SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION APPEARS IN THE OFFING FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LINGERING COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
RETREAT WESTWARD AS AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IN THE MO VALLEY MOVES
EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT. WHILE DETAILS AMONG THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE SETS VARY...AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND SC COAST
MONDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
POPS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH THE GREATEST POPS
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE SHEARING SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIFT
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASING.
WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ENDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CAD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE FAVORED
DAMMING REGION ALTHOUGH THEY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE.
EXPECT SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE THE MAIN DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM FRIDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN LOW STRATUS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE. CURRENT MVFR TO IFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER EVEN
FURTHER WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS (AND THE SLIGHT STIRRING)...AM NOT
EXPECTING VSBYS TO GO AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OTHERWISE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...LIKELY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AND THEN WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE
AVIATION CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY
BE JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE BY 12Z SUNDAY. AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL ACCORDINGLY IMPROVE AND AM EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...KRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1003 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
NO CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS EAST. NICE FALL DAY FOR
SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 701 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 20S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UPPER TEENS SOUTHWEST
WHERE SFC DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 15F
OVERNIGHT. SUNNY AND WARMER SATURDAY!
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SWINGING THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BISMARCK AND MINOT
RADARS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS CENTRAL THAT SHOULD END THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL CLOUD FORECAST SHOWS THE CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREES THIS EVENING AS H850 WARM ADVECTION ERODES
WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS. SATURDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
AFTER MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXPECT
A COOLING TREND WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING SYSTEMS RESIDING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
POTENTIALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES.
UPPER RIDGE/HEIGHTS FLATTEN SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM
WEST COAST TROUGH THAT SPLITS AS IT CROSSES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/LOWER THICKNESSES COMMENCE MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM PASSING EITHER
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA PER GFS...OR EVEN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS
PER ECMWF. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST AN H85 COLD POCKET OF -4C BEING DRAWN
INTO AND HOVERING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD INITIALLY SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGING TO
SNOW TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GFS CONTINUES WITH A MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION FIELD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA GIVEN THE OVERALL NORTHERN
TRAJECTORY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION FIELD ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN BORDER AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...THEN THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING
ANALYSIS IN TERMS OF SNOW SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES
FROM DICKINSON TO BISMARCK AND EAST INTO JAMESTOWN...FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW/MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT PER GFS AND ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS NORTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST. CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
701 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 20S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UPPER TEENS SOUTHWEST
WHERE SFC DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 15F
OVERNIGHT. SUNNY AND WARMER SATURDAY!
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SWINGING THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BISMARCK AND MINOT
RADARS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS CENTRAL THAT SHOULD END THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL CLOUD FORECAST SHOWS THE CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREES THIS EVENING AS H850 WARM ADVECTION ERODES
WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS. SATURDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
AFTER MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXPECT
A COOLING TREND WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING SYSTEMS RESIDING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
POTENTIALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES.
UPPER RIDGE/HEIGHTS FLATTEN SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM
WEST COAST TROUGH THAT SPLITS AS IT CROSSES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/LOWER THICKNESSES COMMENCE MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM PASSING EITHER
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA PER GFS...OR EVEN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS
PER ECMWF. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST AN H85 COLD POCKET OF -4C BEING DRAWN
INTO AND HOVERING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD INITIALLY SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGING TO
SNOW TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GFS CONTINUES WITH A MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION FIELD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA GIVEN THE OVERALL NORTHERN
TRAJECTORY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION FIELD ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN BORDER AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...THEN THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING
ANALYSIS IN TERMS OF SNOW SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES
FROM DICKINSON TO BISMARCK AND EAST INTO JAMESTOWN...FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW/MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT PER GFS AND ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
LOW VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATO CU WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS THINKING...AT LEAST
REGARDING IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. ROADS REMAIN WET ALTHOUGH SNOW
IS FALLING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. DID
INCREASE SNOW PROBABILITIES QUICKER WITHIN THE VALLEY...BUT OTHER
FORECAST ASPECTS REQUIRE NO CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
DEFORMATION ZONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN VALLEY
INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST WHILE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
PROPAGATES EAST AND FORCING DECREASES. THIS THINKING IS WELL
SUPPORTED BY HI-RES (HRRR...RAP) MODELS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. LOW LEVEL TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING ARE ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD WHERE THE P-TYPE IS SNOW. WEB CAMS INDICATE SNOW
ACCUMULATING ON THE GRASSY SURFACES WITH ROADS REMAINING WET (ROAD
TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND THE SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIGHT TO
MODERATE PREVENTING ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS). AT ANY
RATE...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A THIN BAND OF 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION BY THIS EVENING FROM VALLEY CITY TO COOPERSTOWN AND
NORTHWARD. ANTICIPATE THE VALLEY REMAINING MAINLY RAINFALL WITH
THE WARMER AIR NEAR THE SFC HARDER TO MIX OUT. HOWEVER...ACROSS
EASTERN KITTSON COUNTY SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON (AGAIN..1-2 INCHES). WILL MONITOR WEBCAMS FOR ROAD
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT OTHER THAN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IMPACTS
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TODAYS RAIN/SNOW? EVENT AND
TEMPERATURES. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT RANGE/GLOBAL MODEL
POSITIONS OF DRY SLOT AND DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN LOCATION. WILL USE
BLEND AND LATER UPDATES WILL NEED TO ADJUST POPS/PCPN AMOUNTS AS
EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE FA.
SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO SD WITH LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED AREA
OF RAIN ON SW FA DOORSTEP. THIS AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN CHALLENGES AS PCPN MOVES
THROUGH WILL BE ADJUSTING POPS WITH MORE SPOTTY PCPN IN DRY SLOT
AND STEADIER PCPN IN DEFORMATION ZONE. HRRR WHICH IS INITIALIZING
WELL WITH CURRENT RAIN AREA SHOWING THE MORE STEADIER PCPN ROUGHLY
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA. USING A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE HIGHEST POPS A BIT MORE TO THE EAST AS THE HRRR HAS
THE FARTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL MODELS NOW
A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH FAVORED INSTABILITY HOWEVER WITH CURRENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NE SD WILL MAINTAIN T MENTION OVER THE FAR
SE EARLY THIS AM AS FAVORED INSTABILITY SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AFT
12Z. AS FOR SNOW ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST HOWEVER ALL MODELS A BIT
WARMER THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. SREF SNOW PROBABILITIES ALSO NOT
QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UP TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN FA INTO NW MN. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO DO MUCH TODAY.
PCPN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE THIS EVENING WITH BEST
POTENTIAL SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN MN AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH
THROUGH THE FA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER NW MN AS COOLER AIR SHIFTS EAST. BETTER PUSH OF
COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF TIL FRIDAY SO LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
FAIRLY GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUDS HANGING AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
RECOVER. ALSO MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS AS WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES
THROUGH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.
SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...A QUIET BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND BROAD 500MB RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF DRY THRU TUESDAY PM. THEREAFTER TEMPS COOL AS
CONFIDENCE DECREASES DRAMATICALLY WITH TIMING...STRENGTH...AND
PLACEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH UP THROUGH THE CWFA CREATING A RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S FRIDAY
NIGHT. WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SOLAR...WARM ADVECTION AND S-W SURFACE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SEVERAL MODELS SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ND THIS
AFTN...WITH IFR LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS. HOWEVER...WILL GO AGAINST
FCST GUIDANCE AS NOT SURE THEY ARE DOING WELL WITH THE NEAR SFC
MOISTURE. GENERALLY GOING TO KEEP IFR CONDS THROUGH AFTN. LIGHT
SNOW OVER DVL WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE VALLEY AND -RA WILL MIX
WITH -SN BY LATE AFTN...IMPACTING GFK/FAR AND TVF/BJI IN THE EARLY
EVENING. NOTE THAT AWOS UNIT AT DVL IS OUT AND USING NEARBY OBS
SUCH AS KRUG...ND AS REPRESENTATIVE BUT IMPROVING FASTER THAN DVL
WILL THROUGH THE AFTN. NO AMDS ARE SKED FOR DVL DUE TO THIS SENSOR
OUTAGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1002 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
DEFORMATION ZONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN VALLEY
INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST WHILE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
PROPAGATES EAST AND FORCING DECREASES. THIS THINKING IS WELL
SUPPORTED BY HI-RES (HRRR...RAP) MODELS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. LOW LEVEL TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING ARE ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD WHERE THE P-TYPE IS SNOW. WEB CAMS INDICATE SNOW
ACCUMULATING ON THE GRASSY SURFACES WITH ROADS REMAINING WET (ROAD
TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND THE SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIGHT TO
MODERATE PREVENTING ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS). AT ANY
RATE...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A THIN BAND OF 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION BY THIS EVENING FROM VALLEY CITY TO COOPERSTOWN AND
NORTHWARD. ANTICIPATE THE VALLEY REMAINING MAINLY RAINFALL WITH
THE WARMER AIR NEAR THE SFC HARDER TO MIX OUT. HOWEVER...ACROSS
EASTERN KITTSON COUNTY SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON (AGAIN..1-2 INCHES). WILL MONITOR WEBCAMS FOR ROAD
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT OTHER THAN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IMPACTS
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TODAYS RAIN/SNOW? EVENT AND
TEMPERATURES. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT RANGE/GLOBAL MODEL
POSITIONS OF DRY SLOT AND DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN LOCATION. WILL USE
BLEND AND LATER UPDATES WILL NEED TO ADJUST POPS/PCPN AMOUNTS AS
EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE FA.
SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO SD WITH LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED AREA
OF RAIN ON SW FA DOORSTEP. THIS AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN CHALLENGES AS PCPN MOVES
THROUGH WILL BE ADJUSTING POPS WITH MORE SPOTTY PCPN IN DRY SLOT
AND STEADIER PCPN IN DEFORMATION ZONE. HRRR WHICH IS INITIALIZING
WELL WITH CURRENT RAIN AREA SHOWING THE MORE STEADIER PCPN ROUGHLY
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA. USING A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE HIGHEST POPS A BIT MORE TO THE EAST AS THE HRRR HAS
THE FARTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL MODELS NOW
A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH FAVORED INSTABILITY HOWEVER WITH CURRENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NE SD WILL MAINTAIN T MENTION OVER THE FAR
SE EARLY THIS AM AS FAVORED INSTABILITY SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AFT
12Z. AS FOR SNOW ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST HOWEVER ALL MODELS A BIT
WARMER THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. SREF SNOW PROBABILITIES ALSO NOT
QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UP TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN FA INTO NW MN. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO DO MUCH TODAY.
PCPN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE THIS EVENING WITH BEST
POTENTIAL SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN MN AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH
THROUGH THE FA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER NW MN AS COOLER AIR SHIFTS EAST. BETTER PUSH OF
COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF TIL FRIDAY SO LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
FAIRLY GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUDS HANGING AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
RECOVER. ALSO MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS AS WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES
THROUGH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.
SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...A QUIET BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND BROAD 500MB RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF DRY THRU TUESDAY PM. THEREAFTER TEMPS COOL AS
CONFIDENCE DECREASES DRAMATICALLY WITH TIMING...STRENGTH...AND
PLACEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH UP THROUGH THE CWFA CREATING A RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S FRIDAY
NIGHT. WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SOLAR...WARM ADVECTION AND S-W SURFACE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
ONCE RAIN MOVES IN CIGS HAVE LIFTED INTO MVFR RANGE. CURRENT LIFR
CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING DVL...GFK...TVF
AND BJI. HAVE CIGS LIFTING INTO MVFR BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED AND COULD BE A BUSY UPDATE DAY. VSBY ALSO
IMPROVING WITH ALL AREAS MVFR OR VFR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHWARD OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE FA. WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE SPOTTY LOWERED POPS THIS
AREA. SO FAR PCPN HAS BEEN MOSTLY RAIN SO NO CHANGES YET WITH
PHASE. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TODAYS RAIN/SNOW? EVENT AND
TEMPERATURES. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT RANGE/GLOBAL MODEL
POSITIONS OF DRY SLOT AND DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN LOCATION. WILL USE
BLEND AND LATER UPDATES WILL NEED TO ADJUST POPS/PCPN AMOUNTS AS
EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE FA.
SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO SD WITH LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED AREA
OF RAIN ON SW FA DOORSTEP. THIS AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN CHALLENGES AS PCPN MOVES
THROUGH WILL BE ADJUSTING POPS WITH MORE SPOTTY PCPN IN DRY SLOT
AND STEADIER PCPN IN DEFORMATION ZONE. HRRR WHICH IS INITIALIZING
WELL WITH CURRENT RAIN AREA SHOWING THE MORE STEADIER PCPN ROUGHLY
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA. USING A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE HIGHEST POPS A BIT MORE TO THE EAST AS THE HRRR HAS
THE FARTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL MODELS NOW
A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH FAVORED INSTABILITY HOWEVER WITH CURRENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NE SD WILL MAINTAIN T MENTION OVER THE FAR
SE EARLY THIS AM AS FAVORED INSTABILITY SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AFT
12Z. AS FOR SNOW ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST HOWEVER ALL MODELS A BIT
WARMER THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. SREF SNOW PROBABILITIES ALSO NOT
QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UP TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN FA INTO NW MN. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO DO MUCH TODAY.
PCPN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE THIS EVENING WITH BEST
POTENTIAL SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN MN AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH
THROUGH THE FA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER NW MN AS COOLER AIR SHIFTS EAST. BETTER PUSH OF
COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF TIL FRIDAY SO LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
FAIRLY GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUDS HANGING AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
RECOVER. ALSO MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS AS WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES
THROUGH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.
SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...A QUIET BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND BROAD 500MB RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF DRY THRU TUESDAY PM. THEREAFTER TEMPS COOL AS
CONFIDENCE DECREASES DRAMATICALLY WITH TIMING...STRENGTH...AND
PLACEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH UP THROUGH THE CWFA CREATING A RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S FRIDAY
NIGHT. WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SOLAR...WARM ADVECTION AND S-W SURFACE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
ONCE RAIN MOVES IN CIGS HAVE LIFTED INTO MVFR RANGE. CURRENT LIFR
CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING DVL...GFK...TVF
AND BJI. HAVE CIGS LIFTING INTO MVFR BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED AND COULD BE A BUSY UPDATE DAY. VSBY ALSO
IMPROVING WITH ALL AREAS MVFR OR VFR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
319 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TODAYS RAIN/SNOW? EVENT AND
TEMPERATURES. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT RANGE/GLOBAL MODEL
POSITIONS OF DRY SLOT AND DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN LOCATION. WILL USE
BLEND AND LATER UPDATES WILL NEED TO ADJUST POPS/PCPN AMOUNTS AS
EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE FA.
SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO SD WITH LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED AREA
OF RAIN ON SW FA DOORSTEP. THIS AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN CHALLENGES AS PCPN MOVES
THROUGH WILL BE ADJUSTING POPS WITH MORE SPOTTY PCPN IN DRY SLOT
AND STEADIER PCPN IN DEFORMATION ZONE. HRRR WHICH IS INITIALIZING
WELL WITH CURRENT RAIN AREA SHOWING THE MORE STEADIER PCPN ROUGHLY
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA. USING A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE HIGHEST POPS A BIT MORE TO THE EAST AS THE HRRR HAS
THE FARTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL MODELS NOW
A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH FAVORED INSTABILITY HOWEVER WITH CURRENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NE SD WILL MAINTAIN T MENTION OVER THE FAR
SE EARLY THIS AM AS FAVORED INSTABILITY SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AFT
12Z. AS FOR SNOW ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST HOWEVER ALL MODELS A BIT
WARMER THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. SREF SNOW PROBABILITIES ALSO NOT
QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UP TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN FA INTO NW MN. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO DO MUCH TODAY.
PCPN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE THIS EVENING WITH BEST
POTENTIAL SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN MN AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH
THROUGH THE FA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER NW MN AS COOLER AIR SHIFTS EAST. BETTER PUSH OF
COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF TIL FRIDAY SO LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
FAIRLY GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUDS HANGING AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
RECOVER. ALSO MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS AS WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES
THROUGH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.
SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...A QUIET BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND BROAD 500MB RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF DRY THRU TUESDAY PM. THEREAFTER TEMPS COOL AS
CONFIDENCE DECREASES DRAMATICALLY WITH TIMING...STRENGTH...AND
PLACEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH UP THROUGH THE CWFA CREATING A RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S FRIDAY
NIGHT. WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SOLAR...WARM ADVECTION AND S-W SURFACE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
VIS HAVE RECOVERED OVER ALL BUT KTVF...WITH SOME SITES EVEN GOING
ABOVE 6SM. CIGS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW IN THE 200 TO 500 FT RANGE FOR
THE MOST PART. THERE COULD BE SOME DIPS DOWN TO THE 3-5SM VIS
RANGE FOR THOSE SITES WITH IMPROVED VISIBILITY...BUT OVERALL THINK
THAT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THERE WILL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL THE RAIN COMES IN FROM SD. RAIN BAND WILL MOVE
INTO KFAR AROUND DAYBREAK AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SOME SNOW
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF THE RED RIVER BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. VIS SHOULD BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE BUT SOME DIPS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL BE IFR
CATEGORY OR LIFR. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY
THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ005-
006-008-009-013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
108 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY
AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND PULL
A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST OF THE
MODELS..INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF
AROUND THE AREA TODAY. NOT SURE IF THIS IS CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN TO
JUST SOME SPRINKLES BREAKING OUT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO
INCREASE AND INDUCE A LITTLE LIFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLE INVERSION NEAR 700 MB WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
DRY SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED SO WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE
SPRINKLE THREAT. WILL ADD MENTION OS SLIGHT CHC FOR SPRINKLES.
THE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES BUT ON AVERAGE MOST PLACES
WILL STILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. FORECAST TEMPS STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR THE SITUATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH LIFTS UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARDS
JAMES BAY. A GOOD SURGE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVES IN NW
OHIO THIS EVENING BUT DRY AIR BELOW THIS LAYER MAY DELAY THE ONSET
OF PRECIP. WITH THAT SAID...ALL MODELS SHOW A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
REACHING NORTHERN OHIO BY 09Z WHICH SHOULD CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO
RAPIDLY FILL IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAISED POPS TO
AROUND 90 PERCENT ALL AREAS STRADDLING A 09-15Z WINDOW WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT ENHANCED BY ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ALOFT SO
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS LOW CAPE HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FRONT IS GOING TO BE MOVING THROUGH DURING A
LESS FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR STRONG STORMS WITH NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AT BEST. GIVEN A VERY SHALLOW
STABLE LAYER...WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IF
CONVECTION BECOMES ORGANIZED ON FRIDAY MORNING. AT A MINIMUM...WE
CAN AT LEAST EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z AND BROUGHT A QUICK END TO
PRECIPITATION AS VERY DRY AIR ARRIVES. SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT BEFORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ARRIVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
DID ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT FROM
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP POPS LOW
WITH THE OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WAS
EXPERIENCED ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND SO DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL NIGHTS WILL RETURN.
LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR 30 DEGREES FOR MANY INLAND AREAS ON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION AT
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN FROM THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. WE THEN SET UP
A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US. IF THE PAST HOLDS TRUE BETWEEN THE MODELS
THE GFS WILL LIFT THE ENERGY OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US TOO FAST
WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF ENDING UP BEING THE BETTER SOLUTION. SO FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 00Z
ECMWF FORECAST.
ANY THICKER CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROKEN/OVERCAST LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THIS LAYER HAS BEEN DECREASING IN HEIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. AS OF 18Z CEILINGS WERE ABOUT 6000 FEET AT
TOL AND FDY RISING EASTWARD UP TO 8000 FEET AT YNG AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE IN HEIGHT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN LIKELY DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT AND
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
LIGHTER SHOWERS IN THE 07Z TO 10Z RANGE...PROMPTING A VCSH IN THE
TAFS BUT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL BE IMMEDIATELY WITH
THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BRING SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS...LIKELY DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO
EVEN IFR IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND MAY REACH 30 KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS. LEFT OUT A TS
MENTION FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE BUT DEPENDING ON THE STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT CANNOT RULE OUT A POTENTIAL
TS...ESPECIALLY AT TOL AND FDY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THINGS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY. A
RESIDUAL 5000 FOOT CEILING LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH ABOUT EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL SCATTER OUT BY 18Z. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AND
WILL STILL BE STRONG AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH TOL...CLE...AND ERI STILL
SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NE OHIO AND NW PA...
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO TODAY. THE
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS FRIDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25
KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THERE IS A SHORT PERIOD WHERE
WINDS COULD TOUCH 30 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME A DEFINITE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND BUILD WAVES TO
AT LEAST 4 TO 6 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. SO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO GO A BIT LONGER FROM WILLOWICK TO
RIPLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...TK/MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
903 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY
AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND PULL
A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MOST OF THE
MODELS..INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF
AROUND THE AREA TODAY. NOT SURE IF THIS IS CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN TO
JUST SOME SPRINKLES BREAKING OUT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO
INCREASE AND INDUCE A LITTLE LIFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLE INVERSION NEAR 700 MB WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
DRY SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED SO WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE
SPRINKLE THREAT. WILL ADD MENTION OS SLIGHT CHC FOR SPRINKLES.
THE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES BUT ON AVERAGE MOST PLACES
WILL STILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. FORECAST TEMPS STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR THE SITUATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH LIFTS UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARDS
JAMES BAY. A GOOD SURGE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVES IN NW
OHIO THIS EVENING BUT DRY AIR BELOW THIS LAYER MAY DELAY THE ONSET
OF PRECIP. WITH THAT SAID...ALL MODELS SHOW A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
REACHING NORTHERN OHIO BY 09Z WHICH SHOULD CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO
RAPIDLY FILL IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAISED POPS TO
AROUND 90 PERCENT ALL AREAS STRADDLING A 09-15Z WINDOW WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT ENHANCED BY ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ALOFT SO
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS LOW CAPE HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FRONT IS GOING TO BE MOVING THROUGH DURING A
LESS FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR STRONG STORMS WITH NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AT BEST. GIVEN A VERY SHALLOW
STABLE LAYER...WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IF
CONVECTION BECOMES ORGANIZED ON FRIDAY MORNING. AT A MINIMUM...WE
CAN AT LEAST EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z AND BROUGHT A QUICK END TO
PRECIPITATION AS VERY DRY AIR ARRIVES. SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT BEFORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ARRIVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
DID ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT FROM
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP POPS LOW
WITH THE OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WAS
EXPERIENCED ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND SO DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL NIGHTS WILL RETURN.
LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR 30 DEGREES FOR MANY INLAND AREAS ON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION AT
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN FROM THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. WE THEN SET UP
A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US. IF THE PAST HOLDS TRUE BETWEEN THE MODELS
THE GFS WILL LIFT THE ENERGY OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US TOO FAST
WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF ENDING UP BEING THE BETTER SOLUTION. SO FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 00Z
ECMWF FORECAST.
ANY THICKER CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND KTOL THROUGH 15Z.
OTHERWISE AFTER A MORNING DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS IT APPEARS THAT A 5000 FOOT CEILING WILL DEVELOP THEN
SLOWLY LOWER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS LOOK AS IF
THEY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NW OHIO AROUND 03Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS. RAIN MAY REACH NW OHIO BY 07Z BUT AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO MORE THAN VICINITY SHOWERS FOR NOW. AS THE
RAINS BEGIN CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NON VFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO TODAY. THE
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS FRIDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25
KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THERE IS A SHORT PERIOD WHERE
WINDS COULD TOUCH 30 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME A DEFINITE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND BUILD WAVES TO
AT LEAST 4 TO 6 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. SO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO GO A BIT LONGER FROM WILLOWICK TO
RIPLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...TK/MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1242 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA IS IN HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON
LATEST RAP MODEL AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY IN DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS FAIRLY
LIMITED AND MAINLY RESTRICTED TO JUST THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL HELP MITIGATE TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT IN THE WAA PATTERN HIGHS SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO
THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS IT DOES...A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID DAY ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE STRONGEST CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTING UP ACROSS
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE BACK DOWN A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...BUT IT IS STILL IN THE 40-60 KNOT RANGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE THUNDER CHANCE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS
ABLE TO BE PULLED UP INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MODELS
ARE STILL TRYING TO PULL SOME MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP INTO
AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA AND THIS WOULD LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST GET SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. ASSUMING THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY...THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE THEM FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING THE AREA USHERING
IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICKLY
FALLING SATURDAY AS THE AREA FALLS INTO THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SUNDAY MORNING THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE. GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY 850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE ZERO
DEGREES C KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
MODELS THEN QUICKLY DIVERGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS LEFT OVER VORTICITY
FROM THE EXITING TROUGH AXIS LAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
MONDAY MORNING THE EURO WRAPS UP THE LEFT OVER VORTICITY INTO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND QUICKLY PULLS IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EURO SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS/ CMC SOLUTION KEEPS MOST
OF THE AREA DRY AS IT EJECTS THE LEFT OVER POSITIVE VORTICITY OFF TO
THE EAST. THE GFS THEN BRINGS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW QUICKLY EAST
ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY. THE EURO IS SLOWER WITH
THIS FRONT. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS/CMC SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS
12Z PARTICULARLY IN THE CINCINNATI AREA. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO
HIGH ON THIS SO JUST PUT THAT AS TEMPO CONDITIONS. BEYOND THIS IT
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL REMAIN VFR. CEILINGS MAY
LOWER A BIT LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT AND MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL
DURING THAT TIME. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.AVIATION...
0506/0606 TAFS...A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH 9-10Z WITH
IFR CEILINGS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH MODELS...BUT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
AVIATION...
0500/0524 TAFS...MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AFTER 6Z IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OKC/OUN MAINLY AFTER 12Z.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
AS WINDS VEER. BY 18Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE APPROACH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA JUST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE 4KM NAM AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR INDICATE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LATEST 04/18Z NAM12 IS IN LINE WITH THE
04/12Z GFS...INDICATING THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BE ALONG I-35
CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z TOMORROW.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRY TO REORGANIZE/REINTENSIFY AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY. IN REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT. THE EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODULATED BY
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS/STORMS. LOW-LEVEL TO 850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
VEER AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...RESULTING IN MORE STRAIGHT-LINE
HODOGRAPHS WITH TIME. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS HAIL IF THERE
IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THERE WILL BE A NARROW REGION BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AND AHEAD
OF CANADIAN FRONT WHERE THERE WILL BE ELEVATED WILD FIRE
CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES. THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE...AND SHOULD EXIT BY
LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
IN ITS WAKE...A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
DIP INTO MID-30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF...SO FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MAHALE
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 73 47 64 / 40 50 10 0
HOBART OK 60 73 44 64 / 50 30 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 76 46 69 / 50 60 10 0
GAGE OK 54 71 37 64 / 40 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 61 73 43 64 / 30 50 10 0
DURANT OK 63 71 52 70 / 50 90 50 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
847 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
EVENING INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS LOCATED
FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW A MAJORITY OF RAIN SHOWERS
LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND EAST ARKANSAS SOUTH OF I-55 AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LATEST 00Z WRF AND HRRR INDICATE SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AND ADJUST ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
A COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM SAVANNAH TENNESSEE...TO OXFORD
MISSISSIPPI...TO GREENVILLE MISSISSIPPI. AN AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT AS A WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR GREENVILLE. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT AREAS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THUS FAR
NO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND THINK THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY IS SHRINKING THUS WILL REMOVE MENTION OF ANY STRONG
STORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE HWO. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW STRONG OR SEVERE LIMITS.
THE FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SATURDAY
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO EXIT THE
CWA BY SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND
THE FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE A WEAK WARM
FRONT MAY MOVE NORTHWARD SETTING OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WHILE THE
GFS IS DRY. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CWA. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS TIME PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER THE CURRENT GFS TRACK OF THE SFC LOW COULD BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX INTO AT LEAST NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF TRACK IS NOT SO
FAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING SO STAY TUNED.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY VFR CIGS THIS EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
LATER THIS EVENING...EXCEPT AT KJBR WHERE VFR CIGS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN BY LATE EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KTUP LATE THIS EVENING AND MAYBE AT KMKL AS
WELL. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING KTUP...TAPERING TO DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.
RAIN SHOULD END AT KTUP BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT MID
AFTERNOON AT KTUP. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER ON SATURDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
319 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...PCPN TIMING ARRIVAL...STRONG/SVR TSTM POTENTIAL...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...TEMPS.
WILL BE MORE THAN LIKELY MAKING SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND
THERE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THRU SAT NIGHT UP TO PRESS TIME...BUT FOR
NOW...THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF WHAT MOST LIKELY LOOKS TO OCCUR.
AS PRE FRONTAL SHWR AND TSTM AREAL COVERAGE MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY AROUND 05/21Z...NOT EVEN TO THE MS RIVER YET...ALONG WITH
CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL(HRRR)SUGGESTING ALSO...LOOKS LIKE THIS LINE
OF CONVECTION WILL NOT EVEN APPROACH THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WRN FRINGES OF THE
NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY SUNRISE FRI. HRRR ACTUALLY THEN SHOWING THIS ENTIRE
LINE WEAKENING ACROSS THIS AREA AND JUST ABOUT DISSIPATING BY 06/16Z ON FRI.
LATEST SPC DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ALSO SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY TOO...AS
SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM ITS PRESENT LOCATION ACROSS CNTRL OK AND
CNTRL TX...SLOWLY EWD AND MOVING INTO THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION BY
EARLY FRI AFTERNOON...PUSHING THEN EWD INTO THE PLATEAU COUNTIES BY THE
EVENING HRS...AND THEN SE OF MID STATE BY SUNRISE ON SAT. IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT DOES CONSIDERABLY WEAKEN AS THE DAY ON FRI PROGRESSES.
SRH SFC-3KT AROUND 350 M2/S2 PER KOHX 06/12Z GFS SOUNDING PROFILE...BUT VERY
LOW CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 11 J/KG. SO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS HERE
OR THERE WITH SOME STRONG EMBEDDED TSTMS...BUT THINK ANY SVR TSTM POTENTIAL
IS LIMITED AT BEST OVERNIGHT. ALSO...OVERALL EXPECT A DECREASE IN SHWR/TSTM
COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRI W TO E...BUT ALSO EXPECT AS THE FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE INTO THE MID STATE...THAT JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT A LINE OF SHWR AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL BE KEEPING
THIS IN MIND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRI ALSO. IN ALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONLY BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO AROUND ONE HALF OF AN
INCH THRU FRI NIGHT.
EXPECT THE BRUNT OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY TO AT LEAST LINGER ACROSS THE PLATEAU
COUNTIES ON FRI NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW SWLY ORIENTATION LINES UP WELL
WITH SFC FRONTAL POSITION. SHWR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO AT LEAST LINGER
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON SAT TOO...UNTIL A STRONG SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INFLUENCES BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
KEEP SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT DRY. LATEST EURO SOLUTION MOST PROGRESSIVE
IN DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT
USHERING IN SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID STATE FROM THE SE ON MON...RESULTING
IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISO/SCT SHWRS. OTHERWISE...INTO TUE AND THEN ON
VETERANS DAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED. MODELS NOW ADVERTISING
A WELL DEVELOPED SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS AS VETERANS DAY PROGRESSES...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS THE MID STATE NEXT THU.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
HIGHS ON FRI IN THE 70S...BUT AFTER THE FULL FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT TEMPS
TO ACTUALLY FALL TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...WITH EVENTUALLY A WARM
UP TO TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER BY VETERANS
DAY BEFORE THE NEXT POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 68 73 54 62 / 70 80 40 20
CLARKSVILLE 66 73 49 62 / 90 60 20 10
CROSSVILLE 65 72 55 59 / 20 80 90 50
COLUMBIA 67 74 53 61 / 70 70 70 30
LAWRENCEBURG 67 74 55 61 / 40 60 90 50
WAVERLY 67 74 51 62 / 90 60 20 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
947 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LIBERTY TO DOWNTOWN HOUSTON TO EDNA. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR GALVESTON BAY AND THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OUT TO 20 NM BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND FREEPORT.
MORE DETAILS IN THE DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW.
40
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WAS LOCATED AT 6 PM FROM NEAR
CLEVELAND TO HOUSTON TO JUST NORTH OF VICTORIA. BOTH THE NAM12 AND
RAP13 MOVE THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HRRR AND SREF DEVELOP AREAS OF FOG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE MODELS DO DEVELOP AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF AT THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 700 MB WILL PROVIDE FOR A BIT
OF A CAP WHICH MAY KEEP THE RAIN AWAY FROM THE COASTAL AREAS
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM12 FORECASTS ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH
WILL HELP DEVELOP RAIN AREAS. THINK THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED.
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LIBERTY TO HOUSTON TO EDNA. ALSO ADDED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM FOR COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE LOCATIONS.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
RADAR TRENDS SHOW ACTIVITY MAINLY FROM C TEXAS THROUGH THE
ARKLATEX NORTH OF THE KCLL/KUTS TERMINALS. OTHER SHOWERS WERE
NOTED FROM BASICALLY S HOUSTON AND OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SFC
ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS HOUSTON THAT SEEMS TO
BE PUSHING NORTH A BIT AS IT DISSIPATES. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT SHOULD GET A GOOD PUSH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERALL TRENDS IN TAFS ARE RATHER PESSIMISTIC WITH CIGS
BECOMING IFR AND RAIN BEGINNING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...SHOULD HAVE A SLOWER TRANSITION TO MVFR AND THEN
IFR THROUGH 12Z COMPARED TO SOUTHERN TAFS. RAIN MAY BEGIN SOONER
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH AND AS A RESULT RAIN
COULD END EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS MAY HOLD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT MAY BEGIN TO LIFT AS DRIER AIR MIXES.
KIAH/KHOU/KSGR...WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND A MOIST
AIRMASS JUST SOUTH OF IT...COULD HAVE A TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR
CIGS EARLIER TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ENDING BUT WILL
KEEP VCSH IN TAFS UNTIL 02Z. EXPECT MORE MODERATE RAIN TO DEVELOP
IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS COULD THEN PERSIST
AWHILE UNTIL DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE MOISTURE. POSSIBLE THAT AN
ISO THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED
OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NOT PERSIST LONG.
KLBX/KGLS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG THE COAST HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME SEA FOG TO DEVELOP BUT IT IS PROBABLY QUITE TRANSIENT. WILL
KEEP TAFS PESSIMISTIC WITH FOG AND IFR CIGS BUT LIKELY NOT HAVE
CIGS THAT LOW THE WHOLE TAF. RADIATION FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR LBX BUT
COULD ALSO BE SOME SEA FOG THAT MOVES INLAND. EITHER WAY IFR CIGS
OR LOWER COULD GET SOCKED IN THE AREA AND THEN IMPROVE AS RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOP CLOSER TO 12Z IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE FRONT AND COULD HAVE SOME GOOD GUSTS.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 59 65 50 64 48 / 70 60 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 68 54 66 50 / 40 70 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 72 59 66 59 / 40 60 30 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
928 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
Based on radar and satellite trends over the last several hours,
updated PoP, Weather, and SKY grids for the reminder of tonight.
Short-term models still indicate the best chances for rain tonight
are across our southeastern counties; thus, no PoP or Weather
changes there. The latest suite of products reflect these changes.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
MVFR ceilings continue along the I-10 corridor from KOZA TO KJCT
and are expected to expand north during the evening and overnight
hours. Dewpoints remain in the 30s farther north, but we are
seeing a northward surge in low-level moisture approaching the
Concho Valley. MVFR ceilings are expected as far north as a KSJT-
KBWD line through a few hours after sunrise, with scattered
showers, and a few thunderstorms, developing this evening and
continuing overnight. Rain chances are greatest over the northwest
Hill Country, tapering off near I-20. Rain is expected to end from
north to south by midday Saturday as a cold front brings drier air
into the region. Winds may gust over 20 kts in the wake of this
front.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
Showers and storms continue to develop across the Northwest Hill
Country this afternoon. Light northeast flow behind a cold front
combining with the cloud cover spreading northward across much of
the area to keep temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s this
afternoon. Models still have differences with regards to the
expected convection tonight, as return flow starts to bring
moisture up and over the cold front. GFS continues to confine much
of the precipitation to the Hill Country and Heartland, while the
HRRR and the TTU WRF show convection farther north and west into
San Angelo and Abilene as well. The WRF and HRRR handled
yesterdays lack of convection better, and were faster to break out
the convection earlier today. Thus, will place the higher PoPs
across the southeast, but will also increase the rain chances a
little more across the Concho Valley and Big Country as well.
A reinforcing surge of cooler and drier air moves into the area
tomorrow, ending the rainfall from north to south as it moves
through. Still cool however, even with a little sun possible in the
afternoon. Highs will remain in the low to mid 60s.
LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Isolated light showers along and south of the I-10 corridor end
Saturday night, as dry air associated with surface high pressure
builds in. 700 MB moisture and mid level clouds, however, will
persist Saturday night and Sunday, mainly south of the I-20
corridor. Low level moisture and clouds return Monday as stronger
southeast to south surface winds return Gulf moisture. The next
chance of rain comes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, as an
upper low moves across the Texas Panhandle into the Central
Plains. Unfortunately, most of the lift from this system is north
of West Central Texas. Thus, will keep rainfall chances on the low
side. A cold front associated with the upper low will also move
through Wednesday, pushing low and mid level moisture east, and
ending rain chances. The later half of next week is dry as surface
high pressure dominates.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 49 63 42 62 / 40 20 5 5
San Angelo 51 64 42 62 / 50 30 10 5
Junction 53 62 45 63 / 70 60 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
542 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
MVFR ceilings continue along the I-10 corridor from KOZA TO KJCT
and are expected to expand north during the evening and overnight
hours. Dewpoints remain in the 30s farther north, but we are
seeing a northward surge in low-level moisture approaching the
Concho Valley. MVFR ceilings are expected as far north as a KSJT-
KBWD line through a few hours after sunrise, with scattered
showers, and a few thunderstorms, developing this evening and
continuing overnight. Rain chances are greatest over the northwest
Hill Country, tapering off near I-20. Rain is expected to end from
north to south by midday Saturday as a cold front brings drier air
into the region. Winds may gust over 20 kts in the wake of this
front.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
Showers and storms continue to develop across the Northwest Hill
Country this afternoon. Light northeast flow behind a cold front
combining with the cloud cover spreading northward across much of
the area to keep temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s this
afternoon. Models still have differences with regards to the
expected convection tonight, as return flow starts to bring
moisture up and over the cold front. GFS continues to confine much
of the precipitation to the Hill Country and Heartland, while the
HRRR and the TTU WRF show convection farther north and west into
San Angelo and Abilene as well. The WRF and HRRR handled
yesterdays lack of convection better, and were faster to break out
the convection earlier today. Thus, will place the higher PoPs
across the southeast, but will also increase the rain chances a
little more across the Concho Valley and Big Country as well.
A reinforcing surge of cooler and drier air moves into the area
tomorrow, ending the rainfall from north to south as it moves
through. Still cool however, even with a little sun possible in the
afternoon. Highs will remain in the low to mid 60s.
LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Isolated light showers along and south of the I-10 corridor end
Saturday night, as dry air associated with surface high pressure
builds in. 700 MB moisture and mid level clouds, however, will
persist Saturday night and Sunday, mainly south of the I-20
corridor. Low level moisture and clouds return Monday as stronger
southeast to south surface winds return Gulf moisture. The next
chance of rain comes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, as an
upper low moves across the Texas Panhandle into the Central
Plains. Unfortunately, most of the lift from this system is north
of West Central Texas. Thus, will keep rainfall chances on the low
side. A cold front associated with the upper low will also move
through Wednesday, pushing low and mid level moisture east, and
ending rain chances. The later half of next week is dry as surface
high pressure dominates.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 49 63 42 62 / 40 20 5 5
San Angelo 51 64 42 62 / 50 30 10 5
Junction 53 62 45 63 / 70 60 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Johnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1229 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS CIGS ARE LIFTING OUT...HOWEVER TERMINALS SHOULD STILL
REMAIN NEAR MVFR/VFR THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE BEING REPLACED BY A BKN LAYER THAT SHOULD HOVER AROUND 030/035
FEET. THE HRRR AND ARW MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SO MENTIONED VCSH AT KCLL ABD KUTS BETWEEN
19-01Z WITH A TEMPO FOR ISOLATED TSRA BEWTEEN 20-23Z.
LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN OVER NIGHT WITH CIGS AND VSBYS
AGAIN DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH KCLL AND KUTS BETWEEN 06 AND 07Z AND GRADUALLY STALL OUT
IN THE VICILITY OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AROUND 10Z. CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE VICILITY OF THE FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY HOWEVER THE TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL GREATLY HINGE ON THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BECOMING
VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OVER NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. 44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
UPDATE...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A SURFACE TROUGH/DEVELOPING
DRYLINE STRETCHING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE BIG COUNTRY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAVE DEVELOPED BOTH ALONG
THIS DRYLINE AND APPROXIMATELY 200 MILES EAST UNDERNEATH AN AREA
OF MID-UPPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW
MEXICO. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED OVER
PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING... THE MAIN QUESTION
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHEAST TEXAS SEES.
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS OUT OF HOUSTON THIS MORNING SHOWED A CAP
LOCATED AROUND 700-750 MB THIS MORNING... WITH A SIMILAR FEATURE
OBSERVED ON BOTH THE LAKE CHARLES AND CORPUS SOUNDINGS. SATELLITE
TRENDS DO SHOW SOME THINNING/CLEARING OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND BASED ON BUFR SOUNDINGS/LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE... THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH WEAKENING FOR ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. ALREADY SEEING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
DEVELOP OVER JACKSON COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING... BUT ANTICIPATE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE TODAY TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES CLOSER TO BETTER OVERALL LIFT. GPS-MET DATA SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1.8 INCHES... AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STRONGER ACTIVITY. CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 72 61 67 50 / 90 60 50 50 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 80 66 71 54 / 50 60 70 70 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 78 70 72 59 / 20 50 60 70 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HUFFMAN
AVIATION...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1125 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF UPDATE/
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
AROUND 06Z AT KAUS AND 08Z-09Z AT KSAT/KSSF. KDRT WILL SEE THE
WINDSHIFT AROUND 00Z. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
10-15 KNOTS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
AT 10-15 MPH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR. CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z KDRT SOUNDING WAS LIKELY THE CULPRIT
FOR KEEPING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. WE ARE GETTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER AND THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER
LEVELS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN
MARCOS AS IT APPEARS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS HAVE DECREASED OVER VAL VERDE
COUNTY AND WE WILL OPT TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. FINALLY...MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
AVIATION...
A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING SHRA AND TEMPO
TSRA AT THOSE TAF SITES. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
HAVE TSRA FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SHRA OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPOS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS DURING SHRA/TSRA.
CIGS SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. S
TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO N
BEHIND THE FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL FOCUS ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES JUST
TO THE EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS..PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL..AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE OVERALL SET-UP IS COMPLEX THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS
HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT NOR INITIALIZED
WELL. LOOKING AT WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON ANALYSIS WISE DEPICTS A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH 584-588 DM H5
HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS A 125 KT JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. IN THE LOW-LVLS...925MB AND 850MB FLOW IS SSW
AT 25-30 KT THAT IS SUPPLING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION AS PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 2-2.1". THE KDRT 00Z SOUNDING
CAPTURED A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AT 70 KT. HOWEVER...KCRP WAS DECENTLY CAPPED AT 00Z AND THIS
WARM NOSE MAY BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS PROGGED BY NAM/GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WEAK CAPPING FOR KSAT/KDRT. THIS WEAK
CAPPING IS IMPLIED ON THE MLCAPE FIELDS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AS
WELL. WITH ALL THAT STATED...WHAT IS NEEDED IS STRONGER DYNAMIC
LIFT AND FORCING TO PROMOTE VERTICAL MOTION.
MANY RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF-ARW RUNS SEEM TO HAVE
POORLY ANALYZED A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACROSS MEXICO EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING BY SUGGESTING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS AND ROBUST
CONVECTION. THEY HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS
AND THUS HAVE DISREGARDED THEIR PROPOSED RAINFALL SOLUTIONS. THE
HRRR AS SINCE COME AROUND TO MUCH LOWER TOTALS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WHICH SEEM MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF THAT
HAS DONE WELL THROUGH THIS EVENT THUS FAR. THE RAP AND GFS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AND RESULTANT VERTICAL
LIFT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS PARTICULAR
POINT...THE ISOLATED 6 INCHES PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED MAY BE TOO
HIGH OVER THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL LIKELY STAY THE COURSE
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING ROUND PLAYS OUT. MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME ASSESSING SUBTLE FEATURES OVER DATA SPARSE LOCATIONS LIKE
MEXICO. WITH SUCH HIGH PWATS AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS THIS MORNING AND THE ROUND EXPECTED TONIGHT...SOME ISOLATED
HIGHER POCKETS OF 4 TO 5 STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE BUT MAY NOT BE
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL HILL COUNTRY BUT MORE NORTH AND EAST.
THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT LULL IN HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUSES NORTH OF THE
REGION NEAR A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN A DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND
PENNY TO QUARTER HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS. OVERALL SHEAR
VALUES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE AND WHILE A TORNADO CAN NOT BE FULLY
RULED OUT...THE LIKELIHOOD APPEARS VERY LIMITED. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 8PM TO 6AM RANGE TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG I-35 AND
EAST.
FOR FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THAT
MORNING BUT CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR OVER-RUNNING THAT WILL HELP LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S MOST
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE WASHED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. A REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PUSH COLDER...DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND RESULT IN A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 20 KTS SUSTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE NEW AIR MASS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE SOME OF THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. FORECAST IS CALLING FOR LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S ON THE PLATEAU AND UPPER 40S IN THE AUSTIN AREA. FARTHER
SOUTH...LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED.
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE APPROACH EITHER WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE. BOTH MODELS BRING
A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DUE TO A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS SUGGESTING A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH EXTENT TO
THE LOW CENTER WHICH WOULD BRING CENTRAL TEXAS INTO A MORE
INTERESTING DYNAMICAL REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCES IN MODEL OUTCOMES AT THE
MOMENT SO WILL REFRAIN FROM FOCUSING ON DETAILS. ONE AGREED UPON
DETAIL IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A STRONG COLD FRONT AND COULD PLUNGE
OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE TO COME ON THIS WITH FURTHER MODEL RUNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 61 72 57 65 / 60 100 40 50 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 61 71 56 65 / 60 100 40 50 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 62 73 58 67 / 50 100 50 50 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 57 71 55 64 / 80 80 30 50 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 58 74 60 67 / 30 30 20 40 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 59 71 54 65 / 80 100 40 50 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 72 59 67 / 50 80 40 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 71 58 65 / 50 100 40 50 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 65 73 61 67 / 30 90 50 40 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 62 72 60 67 / 50 100 50 50 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 64 73 62 68 / 40 90 50 40 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1034 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR. CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z KDRT SOUNDING WAS LIKELY THE CULPRIT
FOR KEEPING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. WE ARE GETTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER AND THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER
LEVELS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN
MARCOS AS IT APPEARS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS HAVE DECREASED OVER VAL VERDE
COUNTY AND WE WILL OPT TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. FINALLY...MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
AVIATION...
A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING SHRA AND TEMPO
TSRA AT THOSE TAF SITES. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
HAVE TSRA FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SHRA OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPOS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS DURING SHRA/TSRA.
CIGS SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. S
TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO N
BEHIND THE FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL FOCUS ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES JUST
TO THE EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS..PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL..AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE OVERALL SET-UP IS COMPLEX THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS
HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT NOR INITIALIZED
WELL. LOOKING AT WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON ANALYSIS WISE DEPICTS A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH 584-588 DM H5
HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS A 125 KT JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. IN THE LOW-LVLS...925MB AND 850MB FLOW IS SSW
AT 25-30 KT THAT IS SUPPLING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION AS PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 2-2.1". THE KDRT 00Z SOUNDING
CAPTURED A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AT 70 KT. HOWEVER...KCRP WAS DECENTLY CAPPED AT 00Z AND THIS
WARM NOSE MAY BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS PROGGED BY NAM/GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WEAK CAPPING FOR KSAT/KDRT. THIS WEAK
CAPPING IS IMPLIED ON THE MLCAPE FIELDS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AS
WELL. WITH ALL THAT STATED...WHAT IS NEEDED IS STRONGER DYNAMIC
LIFT AND FORCING TO PROMOTE VERTICAL MOTION.
MANY RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF-ARW RUNS SEEM TO HAVE
POORLY ANALYZED A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACROSS MEXICO EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING BY SUGGESTING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS AND ROBUST
CONVECTION. THEY HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS
AND THUS HAVE DISREGARDED THEIR PROPOSED RAINFALL SOLUTIONS. THE
HRRR AS SINCE COME AROUND TO MUCH LOWER TOTALS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WHICH SEEM MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF THAT
HAS DONE WELL THROUGH THIS EVENT THUS FAR. THE RAP AND GFS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AND RESULTANT VERTICAL
LIFT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS PARTICULAR
POINT...THE ISOLATED 6 INCHES PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED MAY BE TOO
HIGH OVER THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL LIKELY STAY THE COURSE
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING ROUND PLAYS OUT. MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME ASSESSING SUBTLE FEATURES OVER DATA SPARSE LOCATIONS LIKE
MEXICO. WITH SUCH HIGH PWATS AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS THIS MORNING AND THE ROUND EXPECTED TONIGHT...SOME ISOLATED
HIGHER POCKETS OF 4 TO 5 STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE BUT MAY NOT BE
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL HILL COUNTRY BUT MORE NORTH AND EAST.
THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT LULL IN HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUSES NORTH OF THE
REGION NEAR A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN A DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND
PENNY TO QUARTER HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS. OVERALL SHEAR
VALUES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE AND WHILE A TORNADO CAN NOT BE FULLY
RULED OUT...THE LIKELIHOOD APPEARS VERY LIMITED. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 8PM TO 6AM RANGE TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG I-35 AND
EAST.
FOR FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THAT
MORNING BUT CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR OVER-RUNNING THAT WILL HELP LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S MOST
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE WASHED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. A REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PUSH COLDER...DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND RESULT IN A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 20 KTS SUSTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE NEW AIR MASS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE SOME OF THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. FORECAST IS CALLING FOR LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S ON THE PLATEAU AND UPPER 40S IN THE AUSTIN AREA. FARTHER
SOUTH...LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED.
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE APPROACH EITHER WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE. BOTH MODELS BRING
A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DUE TO A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS SUGGESTING A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH EXTENT TO
THE LOW CENTER WHICH WOULD BRING CENTRAL TEXAS INTO A MORE
INTERESTING DYNAMICAL REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCES IN MODEL OUTCOMES AT THE
MOMENT SO WILL REFRAIN FROM FOCUSING ON DETAILS. ONE AGREED UPON
DETAIL IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A STRONG COLD FRONT AND COULD PLUNGE
OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE TO COME ON THIS WITH FURTHER MODEL RUNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 61 72 57 65 / 60 100 40 50 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 61 71 56 65 / 60 100 40 50 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 62 73 58 67 / 50 100 50 50 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 57 71 55 64 / 80 80 30 50 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 58 74 60 67 / 30 30 20 40 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 59 71 54 65 / 80 100 40 50 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 72 59 67 / 50 80 40 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 71 58 65 / 50 100 40 50 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 65 73 61 67 / 30 90 50 40 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 62 72 60 67 / 50 100 50 50 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 64 73 62 68 / 40 90 50 40 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
515 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.AVIATION...
A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING SHRA AND TEMPO
TSRA AT THOSE TAF SITES. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
HAVE TSRA FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SHRA OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPOS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS DURING SHRA/TSRA.
CIGS SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. S
TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO N
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL FOCUS ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES JUST
TO THE EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS..PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL..AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE OVERALL SET-UP IS COMPLEX THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS
HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT NOR INITIALIZED
WELL. LOOKING AT WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON ANALYSIS WISE DEPICTS A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH 584-588 DM H5
HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS A 125 KT JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. IN THE LOW-LVLS...925MB AND 850MB FLOW IS SSW
AT 25-30 KT THAT IS SUPPLING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION AS PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 2-2.1". THE KDRT 00Z SOUNDING
CAPTURED A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AT 70 KT. HOWEVER...KCRP WAS DECENTLY CAPPED AT 00Z AND THIS
WARM NOSE MAY BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS PROGGED BY NAM/GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WEAK CAPPING FOR KSAT/KDRT. THIS WEAK
CAPPING IS IMPLIED ON THE MLCAPE FIELDS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AS
WELL. WITH ALL THAT STATED...WHAT IS NEEDED IS STRONGER DYNAMIC
LIFT AND FORCING TO PROMOTE VERTICAL MOTION.
MANY RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF-ARW RUNS SEEM TO HAVE
POORLY ANALYZED A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACROSS MEXICO EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING BY SUGGESTING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS AND ROBUST
CONVECTION. THEY HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS
AND THUS HAVE DISREGARDED THEIR PROPOSED RAINFALL SOLUTIONS. THE
HRRR AS SINCE COME AROUND TO MUCH LOWER TOTALS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WHICH SEEM MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF THAT
HAS DONE WELL THROUGH THIS EVENT THUS FAR. THE RAP AND GFS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AND RESULTANT VERTICAL
LIFT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS PARTICULAR
POINT...THE ISOLATED 6 INCHES PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED MAY BE TOO
HIGH OVER THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL LIKELY STAY THE COURSE
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING ROUND PLAYS OUT. MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME ASSESSING SUBTLE FEATURES OVER DATA SPARSE LOCATIONS LIKE
MEXICO. WITH SUCH HIGH PWATS AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS THIS MORNING AND THE ROUND EXPECTED TONIGHT...SOME ISOLATED
HIGHER POCKETS OF 4 TO 5 STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE BUT MAY NOT BE
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL HILL COUNTRY BUT MORE NORTH AND EAST.
THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT LULL IN HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUSES NORTH OF THE
REGION NEAR A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN A DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND
PENNY TO QUARTER HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS. OVERALL SHEAR
VALUES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE AND WHILE A TORNADO CAN NOT BE FULLY
RULED OUT...THE LIKELIHOOD APPEARS VERY LIMITED. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 8PM TO 6AM RANGE TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG I-35 AND
EAST.
FOR FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THAT
MORNING BUT CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR OVER-RUNNING THAT WILL HELP LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S MOST
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE WASHED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. A REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PUSH COLDER...DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND RESULT IN A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 20 KTS SUSTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE NEW AIR MASS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE SOME OF THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. FORECAST IS CALLING FOR LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S ON THE PLATEAU AND UPPER 40S IN THE AUSTIN AREA. FARTHER
SOUTH...LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED.
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE APPROACH EITHER WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE. BOTH MODELS BRING
A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DUE TO A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS SUGGESTING A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH EXTENT TO
THE LOW CENTER WHICH WOULD BRING CENTRAL TEXAS INTO A MORE
INTERESTING DYNAMICAL REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCES IN MODEL OUTCOMES AT THE
MOMENT SO WILL REFRAIN FROM FOCUSING ON DETAILS. ONE AGREED UPON
DETAIL IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A STRONG COLD FRONT AND COULD PLUNGE
OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE TO COME ON THIS WITH FURTHER MODEL RUNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 61 72 57 65 / 70 100 40 50 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 61 71 56 65 / 70 100 40 50 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 62 73 58 67 / 50 100 50 50 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 57 71 55 64 / 80 80 30 50 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 58 74 60 67 / 30 30 20 40 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 59 71 54 65 / 80 100 40 50 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 72 59 67 / 50 80 40 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 71 58 65 / 50 100 40 50 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 65 73 61 67 / 30 90 50 40 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 62 72 60 67 / 50 100 50 50 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 64 73 62 68 / 30 90 50 40 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
249 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL FOCUS ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES JUST
TO THE EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS..PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL..AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE OVERALL SET-UP IS COMPLEX THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS
HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT NOR INITIALIZED
WELL. LOOKING AT WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON ANALYSIS WISE DEPICTS A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH 584-588 DM H5
HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS A 125 KT JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. IN THE LOW-LVLS...925MB AND 850MB FLOW IS SSW
AT 25-30 KT THAT IS SUPPLING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION AS PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 2-2.1". THE KDRT 00Z SOUNDING
CAPTURED A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AT 70 KT. HOWEVER...KCRP WAS DECENTLY CAPPED AT 00Z AND THIS
WARM NOSE MAY BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS PROGGED BY NAM/GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WEAK CAPPING FOR KSAT/KDRT. THIS WEAK
CAPPING IS IMPLIED ON THE MLCAPE FIELDS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AS
WELL. WITH ALL THAT STATED...WHAT IS NEEDED IS STRONGER DYNAMIC
LIFT AND FORCING TO PROMOTE VERTICAL MOTION.
MANY RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF-ARW RUNS SEEM TO HAVE
POORLY ANALYZED A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACROSS MEXICO EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING BY SUGGESTING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS AND ROBUST
CONVECTION. THEY HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS
AND THUS HAVE DISREGARDED THEIR PROPOSED RAINFALL SOLUTIONS. THE
HRRR AS SINCE COME AROUND TO MUCH LOWER TOTALS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WHICH SEEM MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF THAT
HAS DONE WELL THROUGH THIS EVENT THUS FAR. THE RAP AND GFS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AND RESULTANT VERTICAL
LIFT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS PARTICULAR
POINT...THE ISOLATED 6 INCHES PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED MAY BE TOO
HIGH OVER THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL LIKELY STAY THE COURSE
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING ROUND PLAYS OUT. MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME ASSESSING SUBTLE FEATURES OVER DATA SPARSE LOCATIONS LIKE
MEXICO. WITH SUCH HIGH PWATS AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS THIS MORNING AND THE ROUND EXPECTED TONIGHT...SOME ISOLATED
HIGHER POCKETS OF 4 TO 5 STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE BUT MAY NOT BE
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL HILL COUNTRY BUT MORE NORTH AND EAST.
THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT LULL IN HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUSES NORTH OF THE
REGION NEAR A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN A DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND
PENNY TO QUARTER HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS. OVERALL SHEAR
VALUES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE AND WHILE A TORNADO CAN NOT BE FULLY
RULED OUT...THE LIKELIHOOD APPEARS VERY LIMITED. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 8PM TO 6AM RANGE TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG I-35 AND
EAST.
FOR FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THAT
MORNING BUT CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR OVER-RUNNING THAT WILL HELP LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE WASHED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. A REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PUSH COLDER...DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND RESULT IN A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 20 KTS SUSTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE NEW AIR MASS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE SOME OF THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. FORECAST IS CALLING FOR LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S ON THE PLATEAU AND UPPER 40S IN THE AUSTIN AREA. FARTHER
SOUTH...LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED.
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE APPROACH EITHER WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE. BOTH MODELS BRING
A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DUE TO A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS SUGGESTING A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH EXTENT TO
THE LOW CENTER WHICH WOULD BRING CENTRAL TEXAS INTO A MORE
INTERESTING DYNAMICAL REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCES IN MODEL OUTCOMES AT THE
MOMENT SO WILL REFRAIN FROM FOCUSING ON DETAILS. ONE AGREED UPON
DETAIL IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A STRONG COLD FRONT AND COULD PLUNGE
OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE TO COME ON THIS WITH FURTHER MODEL RUNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 61 72 57 65 / 70 100 40 50 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 61 71 56 65 / 70 100 40 50 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 62 73 58 67 / 50 100 50 50 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 57 71 55 64 / 80 80 30 50 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 58 74 60 67 / 30 30 20 40 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 59 71 54 65 / 80 100 40 50 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 72 59 67 / 50 80 40 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 71 58 65 / 50 100 40 50 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 65 73 61 67 / 30 90 50 40 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 62 72 60 67 / 50 100 50 50 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 64 73 62 68 / 30 90 50 40 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...DIMMIT...
EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1127 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AS SHOWN BY THE NAM12 925 MB WIND
FORECAST WILL HELP MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE
INLAND AVIATION SITES TONIGHT. MODEL FORECASTS ARE LEANING MORE
TOWARD CEILINGS OVER FOG...ALTHOUGH THE SREF PROBABILITIES WERE
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT NEAR THE KSGR...KCXO...AND KIAH SITES
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AROUND 12Z. MORE CONFIDENT WITH AN MVFR
CEILING FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 19Z. LESS
CONFIDENT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGLS BUT THE MOST LIKELY TIME
PERIOD AT THIS SITE WILL BE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS BEST AT KCLL...KUTS...AND KCXO AFTER
18Z.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL TO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENING AND
SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DECOUPLE. CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LLJ THAT LINED UP FROM BRO TO FWD. 850 MB
DEW PTS HAVE INCREASED TO 15C ACROSS S TX. 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUED TO IMPINGE ON SE TX AND THIS FEATURE
LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE MSTR OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. TRIMMED POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY BUT LEFT THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING AS IT WAS. FEEL THE
SFC-850 WINDS WILL LIMIT THE FOG THREAT SO TONED DOWN THE FOG
WORDING A BIT. SFC DEW PTS NEAR 70 SO BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A BIT AS
WELL. NEW ZONES ALREADY OUT. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE TERMINAL
SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. A BIT OF
DRY AIR AND SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE HRRR AND SREF...SUGGEST
THE PROBLEM WILL BE MORE LOW CEILINGS THAN FOG. HOWEVER...THE SREF
FORECAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE BETWEEN
10Z AND 14Z NEAR KCXO AND KSGR...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES AT KCXO.
FELT THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 17Z AT KCLL...KUTS...AND KLBX. GUIDANCE AND THE
MODELS SUGGESTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KCXO BEFORE
THE CEILINGS LIFTED TO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 17Z -- THIS MAY BE A
BIT TOO SPECIFIC AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO BETTER PINPOINT
CONDITIONS AT KCXO.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCLL AND KUTS AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES ARE LESS
ELSEWHERE.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND HUMID EARLY NOVEMBER DAY WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE SW HALF OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID 70S ACROSS NE AREAS. WILL
SEE UNSEASONABLY WARM MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH M CLOUDY SKIES AND
DW PTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND. ALSO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG
WHERE WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT...BUT NOT THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
WE SAW LAST NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW AREAS
AS A PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S. LIFTS
NE ACROSS N TX. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS W/NW OF SE TX TONIGHT. EXPECT
SCT SHRA/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING TOMORROW ACROSS W/NW AREAS
OF SE TX...THEN SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE
AFT/EVE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE A LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE AREA...GENERALLY WEST
OF A BRENHAM TO CROCKETT LINE. THIS THREAT IS MAINLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO AGREE WITH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK
OF SVR TSTMS GENERALLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THROUGH ON FRIDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO LINGER ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...WITH THE RAIN CHC ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHCS AGAIN INCREASING. 33/44
MARINE...
THE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ON SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY THIS WEEKEND.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL PARTLY DUE TO THE
CONTINUED RUNOFF FROM THE RAINS OVER INLAND TEXAS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW AND SEAS OVER WILL PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL BUMP TO TIDE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 81 65 74 61 / 10 50 80 40 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 81 70 79 65 / 10 30 50 60 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 78 73 78 69 / 10 10 40 50 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1111 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.AVIATION...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH DURING THIS PERIOD. CIGS
WILL GENERALLY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WHILE VIS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON WHEN RAIN STARTS AND STOPS. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN AGAIN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON DRT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH A NORTH WIND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/
..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE HILL COUNTRY/ESCARPMENT/I-35
CORRIDOR POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING...
UPDATE...SLIGHT TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST PERTAINING
TO OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS...LOCATIONS AND SEVERE THREATS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL PLACEMENT WERE TWEAKED PER LATEST TIME
ENSEMBLES OF HI-RES MODELS HINTING AT A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AXIS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCE PERCENTAGES WERE BOOSTED
ANOTHER 10% FOR THE 4AM-10AM RANGE IN THE MOSTLY LIKELY AXIS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL WHICH APPEARS TO THE THE EAST HILL COUNTRY TO
THE ESCARPMENT AND NEAR I-35. THIS COULD INCLUDE BOTH THE SAN
ANTONIO AND AUSTIN METRO AREAS.
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT A LOW-END
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. WIND SHEAR
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 40 TO 60
MPH WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO. SEE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.
DISCUSSION...
INITIAL PLUME OF MID-LVL BAND ISENTROPIC INDUCED SHOWERS IS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO THE
ESCARPMENT REGION. RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL ONLY BE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THE LOW-LVL MOISTURE SURGE
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT TOWARDS DAWN WITH CURRENT PROGGED PWATS
NEAR 1.7" INCREASING TOWARDS 2.1" BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z
KCRP SOUNDING SAMPLED 2.11" WHICH WAS ABOVE THEIR MAXIMUM MOVING
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ONLY 0.17" BELOW THEIR ALL-
TIME DAILY MAXIMUM. OF NOTE...CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS AND
ENVIRONMENTAL LAPS DATA SUGGEST NEAR 200 M2/S2 0-1KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING NEAR DAWN
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO UTILIZE THIS
ORGANIZATIONAL WIND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. A H7-H5 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IMPULSE IS PROJECTED BY THE GFS/NAM AND RAP TO BE
TRANSITING THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT SAME TIME
OF THE PWAT INCREASE BY 6AM. THIS LIFT INDUCING IMPULSE WITH NEAR
500-1000 J/KG CAPE AND CONTINUED 150-200 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH IN
PRESENCE OF 40-45KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH TO AID IN
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. STORMS IN THIS HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT
COULD PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AS WELL AS SOME STRONG WINDS OF
40-60 MPH AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE SPC SSEO
IS INDICATIVE OF AN UPTICK IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS THROUGH 6AM TIME-
FRAME THAT SUPPORTS THIS CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF POTENTIAL EVOLUTION.
OF NOTE HAS BEEN THE LAST 4 RUNS OF THE HRRR THAT AS SHIFTED THE
PRECIPITATION AXIS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR
WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 3-8 INCH RANGE. THE RAP (WHICH DID WELL
LOCATION WISE OF HEAVY RAINFALL PLACEMENT IN THE 10/30 EVENT)
DOES NOT HAVE AS HIGH OF RAINFALL TOTALS AS THE HRRR BUT IS QUITE
SIMILAR IN PLACEMENT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT TO I-35 CORRIDOR REGION.
THE HILL COUNTRY TO ESCARPMENT TO I-35 CORRIDOR IS THE PRIMARY
ZONE OF CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE THAT IS MOVING
IN FROM THE GULF AT LOWER LEVELS AND PACIFIC AT UPPER LEVELS. PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 1.8-2.0 INCHES IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...HILL COUNTRY...AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THESE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES...COMBINED WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT IN FRONT...AND A
SOUTHERLY 25-35 KT LLJ...FIT THE MOLD FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
TONIGHT PRIMARILY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALTHOUGH THE EURO IS A
NOTABLE OUTLIER WITH LITTLE QPF ANYWHERE OVER OUR CWA...MOST
GLOBAL MODELS AND HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TONIGHT WITH THESE CONDITIONS.
THE TEXAS TECH WRF HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
MAINLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AFTER 12 AM
CST TONIGHT...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO LATCHING ONTO
THIS THREAT WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION MOVING FURTHER EAST
AND APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT...BUT MUCH LOWER ON WHERE
THE AXIS OF CONVECTION WILL SETUP AND TIMING. THUS...WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL FELL LAST WEEK WITH 9 PM CST TONIGHT AS THE START TIME TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE UNCERTAINTIES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE MAY ALLOW FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
THUS...THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND
HAIL WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH CAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
1000-1500 J/KG WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT HELICITY VALUES SHOULD BE LOW.
THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY
MOVE NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING TO
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION. HOWEVER...ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION TO ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY IF ANY LEADING SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
SHEAR VALUES TOMORROW WILL ALSO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...SO SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO DUE TO LOW LCLS
DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND HELICITY VALUES. THE MAIN EVENT
THAT VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HITS UPON IS A SQUALL LINE THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS
SHOULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING AND QUICKLY SPREAD THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SQUALL LINE...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS OVER THESE AREAS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
GREATER THREAT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING APPEARS TO
BE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THIS LINE
OR THAT MERGE WITH THE LINE. THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD CLEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
EXPIRATION TIME HAS BEEN SET FOR 9 AM FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AND STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
ALL MODELS CONSISTENTLY DRYING THINGS OUT BY SATURDAY EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TO BEGIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 79 61 71 56 / 60 70 80 40 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 79 62 72 57 / 50 70 80 40 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 81 63 73 59 / 50 70 80 40 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 77 57 72 55 / 80 80 80 30 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 79 57 74 59 / 70 60 30 10 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 78 59 71 55 / 70 80 80 30 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 81 62 72 60 / 80 70 80 30 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 80 63 73 59 / 50 70 80 40 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 82 65 75 61 / 20 50 80 40 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 81 63 72 60 / 70 70 80 40 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 83 64 73 61 / 60 60 80 40 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...DIMMIT...
EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
810 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST...CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...BEFORE REACHING THE COAST SATURDAY
EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDWEST WILL
LIFT BACK NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 807 PM EST FRIDAY...
UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO DELAY ONSET OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT PER LATEST INCOMING HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS AND SURFACE AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
AS OF 800 PM EST...SURFACE FRONT STILL PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL KY...AND WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION FIELDS LIFTING NE IN UPPER FLOW IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO OUR SW...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TN.
HOWEVER...LATEST RUN OF HRRR MODEL WHICH APPEARS TO BE HANDLING
CURRENT SITUATION BEST...DELAYS INTRUSION OF GROUND-BASED
PRECIPITATION INTO PORTIONS OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT...IN SOME INSTANCES NOT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT...BACKED OFF ON HIGHER PRECIPITATION THREAT UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND MAY HAVE TO BACK OFF FURTHER UNTIL
DAYBREAK SATURDAY IF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING NE INTO
EASTERN TN DISSIPATES AS IT CONTINUES NE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
DRY AIRMASS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
ALSO MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS TO REFLECT LATEST SURFACE TRENDS.
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINING WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO CREATE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. ROA AT 82 DEGREES
AND BLF AT 75 DEGREES HAVE BROKEN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST RER AND CLIMATE SECTION FOR INFO.
UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT 18Z/2PM...SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHWARD TO WESTERN TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE ALOFT DRIVING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO...THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. THIS WILL SLOW
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND TRAVEL
EAST ON SATURDAY INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE
MOISTURE...LACK OF INSTABILITY AND TIGHT GRADIENT OF THE RAIN MAKE
THE POPS FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. INITIALLY SHAPED POPS FOR AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT TOWARDS A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW AND HRRR...THEN LEANED
TOWARDS GFS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WHILE IN THE NORTH SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE HIGH CENTER
COMPLICATES THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE STEADY
OR FALLING IN THE WEST...WHILE IN THE EAST...A SLOWLY RISE MAY BE
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH SHOULD FINALLY GIVE
ENOUGH PUSH ON THE RESIDUAL FRONT TO SHOVE IT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER LATEST SOLUTIONS A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS WITH THE SREF KEEPING SHOWERS GOING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
INTO THE EVENING. THUS LAGGED PCPN EXODUS A FEW HOURS WITH POPS
LINGERING MAINLY BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST DURING SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DRYING THINGS OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ENOUGH
COOL ADVECTION WITH SOME LATE NIGHT CLEARING SPCLY NORTHWEST TO
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 30S MOUNTAINS WITH LOW/MID 40S EAST.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING WEDGED IN
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SUPPORTS
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY AND CLEAR WITH SOME LATE NIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUDS SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LEFTOVER UPPER LOW ON THE TAIL OF THE PASSING 5H TROF FROM TODAY WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD AREA OF
WEAK OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING BACK OVER THE WEDGE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BEST MOISTURE/LIFT PROGGED
CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE TRAJECTORY
AROUND LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION THAT COULD
LIMIT INLAND SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT DRY AIR MAY TEND TO LIMIT OR
SLOW DOWN NORTHWARD EXPANSE OF SHOWERS SO SLOWED DOWN CHANCE POPS
TO SW SECTIONS MONDAY...WITH LOW POPS SPREADING NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE ANOTHER CLOUDY/DAMP PERIOD WITHIN THE WEDGE THAT
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON THE CHILLY SIDE MONDAY WITH MOST IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EST FRIDAY...
REMNANT SHORTWAVE TROF RESULTING FROM THE SMALL UPPER LOW BACK ACROSS
THE PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND...WILL FINALLY LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK SUPPRESSED SURFACE
LOW/COASTAL TROF TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TAKING DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POPS MAINLY EAST
TUESDAY AND LESS TO THE WEST BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER WEDGE WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY LIGHT PCPN TUESDAY BEFORE
THE SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL DRYING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A FASTER MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL THEN AGAIN TAKE
SHAPE TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK WITH THE WEDGE GIVING WAY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHARP BUT QUICK HITTER TYPE 5H TROF/COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A QUICK RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED SO MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY
EVENING FOR A COUPLE SHOWER BANDS BEFORE MUCH DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR
SWINGS IN ON STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY BE STRONG ENOUGH BOTH ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS BUT IFFY GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF MUCH COLD AIR.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WITH VERY DRY AIR UNDER BREEZY/COOLER CONDITIONS
ON FRIDAY BUT STILL HIGHS 50S WEST TO 60S EAST GIVEN THE QUICK EXODUS
OF THE COOL AIR ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 607 PM EST FRIDAY...
GRADUAL LOWERING OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS BACK INTO MVFR RANGE
EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS (KROA...KLYH...KDAN...KBCB...
KBLF...KLWB) TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA...AND AS WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT.
SOME RESTRICTIONS INTO IFR RANGE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT/NEAR
KDAN...WHERE INFLUENCE OF COOL MOIST AIR WEDGE CLOSER TO DEPARTING
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST. ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF INTRUSIONS INTO
IFR RANGE IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...LAMP GUIDANCE NOT ALL THAT
AGGRESSIVE IN DRIVING CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY DOWN THAT FAR...AND
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME CONSIDERING UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS AND THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
(EXCLUDING SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC) WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
MIXED.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NEAR HIGHER RIDGES AND ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON NW WINDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE) THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION
RIDES NE ALONG THE SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COOL AND DRY SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ARRIVAL OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UNRESTRICTED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...AS
ONSHORE FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL
MOIST WEDGE SITUATION FOR TUESDAY INTO PERHAPS WEDNESDAY...
CHARACTERIZED BY WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND THE THREAT
FOR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH
ROANOKE AND BLUEFIELD. SEE THE WBCRERRNK FOR DETAILS. BELOW ARE
THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR THE DATE (11/6).
ROA 79...2005...NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH SET TODAY AT 82
LYH 78...1978
DAN 81...2003
RNK 79...1961
BLF 74...1975...NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH SET TODAY AT 75
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...KK/WERT
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...WERT
CLIMATE...JH/WERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1231 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CROSS INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
WE ARE SEEING SOME BREAK IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND TEMPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY SPIKED INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO EVEN AROUND 70. CLOUD COVER IS STILL ROBUST TO THE
SOUTH...AND MOST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE OVER
WEST-CENTRAL NC SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THUS...RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE
SHOULD SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND WHAT SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR DENSE FOG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. SREF
PROBABILITIES AREN`T VERY HIGH FOR FOG..BUT THE HRRR AND MOST
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS NC THAT
CREEPS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND VA PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 5OS..WITH LOWER 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
CONTINUED TO RISE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND A LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP. CAD EROSION WILL CONTINUE VIA
THINNING CLOUD DEPTH AND WARMING FROM BENEATH. GUIDANCE SEEMS
SUSPICIOUSLY QUICK IN BREAKING OUT...BUT GIVEN THE BREAKS WE`VE
SEEN TODAY AND SHALLOW NATURE OF THE REMAINING MOISTURE...HIGHS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A PREFRONTAL BAND
OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND BOTH
MAY BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO CROSS THE AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AWAITING A KICKER PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE. THE NAM SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE MAIN SHOT AT
ANY THUNDER...BUT GIVEN THE POOR DIURNAL TIMING...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. SOME ANAFRONTAL RAIN...OWING
THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
UPPER DIVERGENCE...MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY... A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S...WITH SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATING UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE WHETHER OR NOT
TRAILING ENERGY FROM THE PREVIOUS TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A
SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NC COAST AND SEND PRECIP BACK
TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS WAS ORIGINALLY THE
PRIMARY KEEPER OF THIS SOLUTION...AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF HAS
LATCHED ON WITH ITS OWN DAMMING SCENARIO FOR THE EARLY HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
ISN`T MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE MANY GEFS MEMBERS AT THIS POINT...SO
WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY. IF THIS
SCENARIO UNFOLDS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...
SOLID WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES WITH THE MAIN
CULPRIT LOWERING CIGS. THANKS TO THE TERRAIN...KBLF WILL BE RIGHT
ON THE EDGE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR AND THE LATEST OBS SHOW THAT THEY
HAVE CURRENTLY SCATTERED OUT. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL
BUILD BACK IN AND WILL HAVE TO AMD IF THE IMPROVEMENT BECOMES MORE
THAN TEMPORARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ALSO GENERATING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE WILL NOT WARRANT
MORE THAN A VCSH.
THE LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST WHICH WEAKENS THE WEDGE AND ALLOWS
DIURNAL HEATING TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD DECK TOWARD NOONTIME. WILL
KEEP A BKN CIG AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE A BKN/V/SCT
SITUATION.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION BEING
KBLF WHERE ELEVATION AND WINDS COMING AROUND TO A PREFERRED SWLY
DIRECTION WILL HELP GENERATE SOME GUSTS.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY SUNDAY/MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
849 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
A RATHER SHARP MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE AIRMASS WITH THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH
THE COLUMN...SO ONLY LOOKING AT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND MAINLY
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE HRRR CLOUD
PROG THAT SEEMS TO BE HANDLING REALITY PRETTY WELL RIGHT NOW.
DESPITE LOWERING THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS ARE LOOKING OKAY. THE
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS A BIT ELEVATED AND MIXING SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY MAJOR RADIATIVE CONTRIBUTION.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID
MORNING ON SATURDAY...THEN INCREASING TO 13 TO 20KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM
SATURDAY DUE TO BRISK WESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS
THE AREA.
ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GO. FOR
NOW...HAVE IT REACHING THE MADISON AND MILWAUKEE AREAS FOR A TIME
LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD HOLD LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...A BIT WARMER LAKESIDE.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE/MIX OUT SATURDAY MORNING. SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING AND TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S SOUTH...AS
CORE OF COLD AIRMASS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED SAT NT AND SUN AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL USA. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD
ACROSS SRN WI SAT NT...MAKING FOR A COOL NIGHT BUT WILL MOVE TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 00Z MON. SSWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND SUNSHINE BOOSTING 925 MB TEMPS TO
4-6C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL THEN MOVE TO
NORTHERN OR CENTRAL IL BY 00Z TUE AND PASS MON NT. A DRY AIRMASS
WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. HIGHS MON WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUN.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON TUE WILL TRACK
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON WED. THE ECMWF...GFS...AND CANADIAN ALL
AGREE ON STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER MO AND IA AND THEN TRACKING
ACROSS SRN WI OR NRN IL FOR WED NT. POP FORECAST HAS INCREASING
POPS TUE NT AND WED WITH LIKELY POPS WED NT. PCPN WILL LIKELY
LINGER ON THU. BRISK NWLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION TO PREVAIL ON
THU BUT MILD BEFOREHAND. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW FOR FRI BUT QUESTIONABLE ON WHETHER PCPN WILL OCCUR AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
AREA OF MVFR CATEGORY STRATUS CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT
FROM THE NORTH...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS TAF SITES. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO
TONIGHT AS WELL.
ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS FROM MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO TAF SITES LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH HOW FAR
SOUTH THEY WILL MOVE AND IF TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST BROKEN CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AT TAF
SITES EXCEPT KENOSHA. THEY SHOULD BE VFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR CATEGORY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 16Z SATURDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 18 TO 22 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES.
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW.
MARINE...
CANCELLED THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...AS WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 22 KNOTS FOR THE MOST
PART. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO TONIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 16Z SATURDAY UNTIL
00Z SUNDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. HIGH WAVES WILL REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FROPA WITH SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING..THEN
BRISK/COLDER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FIRST
24-36 HOURS.
WATER VAPOR/RAP 400MB ANALYSIS SHOWING EVOLUTION OF AN
ELONGATED/DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAKING INROADS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST
WEST OF THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH NORTHWEST IA...INTO EASTERN KS.
A VERY TIGHT/4NM WIDE N/S LINE OF SHRA EXTENDED ALONG THIS
FRONT...MARCHING EAST AROUND 15-20 MPH THROUGH EASTERN MN PER LATEST
RADAR MOSAIC. OTHERWISE...INFLUX OF LOWER/LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE STRATUS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
AREA AS DEW POINTS WERE INCREASING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S.
LATEST MESOWRF MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
FAIRLY WELL...MARCHING THE LINE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. RAP SHOWING MUCAPE OF
AROUND 500J/KG ALONG WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-40KT RANGE.
THINKING TOO MUCH SHEAR FOR EXTENSIVE UPDRAFT...BUT STILL COULD BE A
STRONGER SHOWER OR STORM OR TWO THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL
GOING INTO THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT/RAIN EXITS EAST...PLAN ON
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING IN WITH GUSTS ON AVERAGE IN THE 20 TO
25 MPH RANGE. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
THE MIDDLE 40S.
COLDER BRISK CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS. DEEPER MIXING OF COLD 0C TO -3C 850MB AIR
SHOULD YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. COMBINING THESE TEMPERATURES
WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS/PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER...QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE RECENT WARM
SPELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...IN
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...MODELS SWING A TROUGH THROUGH
THE AREA WITH THE NAM EVEN SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BREAKING
OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA. OTHER MODEL NOT SHOWING
THIS...SO OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IT FOR NOW GIVEN THE DRY LOWER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT THOUGH SINCE NAM DOES SHOW
RATHER STRONG 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
COLDEST CORE OF AIR OVER THE AIR ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. NAM 850MB AIR IN THE -2C TO -6C RANGE AT 21Z. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE.
SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN ADVANCE OF WEST COAST TROUGH.
PLAN ON HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 50S.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THE REGION. RIGHT
NOW...THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER BY A DAY TO A DAY AND A HALF
WITH THIS LOW...SO IT IS LIKELY POPS MAY CHANGE WITH TIME. TIMING
WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FINE LINE VISIBLE LATE THIS MORNING IN BOTH THE RADAR DATA AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
MARKING THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 05.15Z HRRR AND CR-
HRRR RUNS ALONG WITH THE 05.12Z HI-RES ARW AND NMM ALL SEEM TO
HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT.
THESE MODELS ALL SUGGEST IT WILL COME THROUGH THE TAF SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT
IS STILL PRETTY WEAK AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BOTH THE 05.15Z RAP AND
05.12Z NAM SUGGEST THE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DOES NOT
CATCH UP WITH THE FRONT UNTIL IT HAS PASSED THROUGH BOTH TAF
SITES. THIS TREND IS SHOWN BY ALL THE HI-RES MODELS BRINGING THE
FRONT THROUGH WITH A VERY NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THEN
BLOSSOMING THE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST ONCE THE FORCING INCREASES.
WILL MOVE UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE A LITTLE BIT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHORTEN UP THE WINDOW OF WHEN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND BEHIND IT WITH LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY AS WELL. THE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. THE MOISTURE
STARTS TO DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE CLOUDS TO START SCATTERING OUT AND HAVE SHOWN THIS FOR KRST.
THIS SHOULD HAPPEN RIGHT ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY FOR KLSE SO WILL LET THE
NEXT FORECAST DETAIL THAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1113 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES.
06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE IN FAR SOUTHWEST ONT/NORTHWEST
MN...WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE KS/NEB/CO
BORDER. MDT SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT AND/OR STRATUS CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO KEEP TEMPS VERY MILD FOR EARLY NOV... WITH READINGS
ACROSS MN/IA/WI AT 07Z MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW LOWER 60S.
05.00Z RAOBS AROUND THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A PROMINENT
INVERSION NEAR/JUST ABOVE 850MB ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE/SATURATION BELOW THE INVERSION. LOCALLY...WEAK
SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 295K PRODUCING SOME DZ OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
MODEL RUNS OF 05.00Z INITIALIZED VERY WELL AND OFFER GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH THEIR 03.00Z/04.00Z RUNS. MODELS OFFERING A TIGHT CONSENSUS AS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY THEN INTO/ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY
TONIGHT. TREND BY 00Z FRI AND ESPECIALLY BY 12Z FRI FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THE TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS...SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE AREA UNDER A RATHER
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION JUST ABOVE 850MB MUCH OF TODAY...UNTIL
COOLING WITH APPROACH OF THE 850-700MB TROUGH ERODES IT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOWING LAYER UNDER THE INVERSION QUITE MOIST/
SATURATED TODAY. QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE/LIFT
IN THE SUB-850MB LAYER...AND CLOUD DEPTH TO PRODUCE ANY DZ THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SFC FRONT THRU MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS APPROACH TODAY AND PRESSURES FALL THERE SHOULD BE SOME
GENERAL ASCENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SMALL -DZ CHANCE ACROSS MAINLY
THE CENTRAL/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING LOOKS GOOD.
WILL CONTINUE SMALL DZ CHANCE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS UNTIL
THE CAP ERODING 850-700MB COOLING WITH TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES. STRONGER
OF THE SFC-700MB QG/FN CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH THE STRONGER 500-
300MB PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
BULK OF HI-RES/WRF MODELS DEVELOP A RATHER NARROW LINE OF SHRA/
ISOLATED TSRA ALONG THE FRONT AS IS MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
APPEARS RAIN CHANCES AT ANY ONE LOCATIONS WILL MAINLY BE A 2 TO 3 HR
PERIOD AS THE FRONT PASSES. HAVE TRENDED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO
MIRROR THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE FASTER
PASSAGE AND NARROW LINE OF SHRA/TSRA...APPEARS MOST RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE 1/10 TO 1/3 INCH RANGE.
200-300 J/KG MUCAPE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAVE TSRA MENTION WITH THE FRONT AS ISOLATED
FOR NOW. WINDS ALOFT QUITE STRONG...WITH AS MUCH AS 60-70KTS OF 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
THIS EVENING. ANY TSRA COULD PRODUCE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...SEE SWODY1
FOR MORE DETAILS. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW HAS THE FRONT EAST OF THE FCST
AREA BY 06Z...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PASS BY 09Z. LIMITED
SHRA CHANCES TO THE EAST END OF THE FCST AREA AFTER 06Z AND CARRIED
A DRY FCST AREA WIDE AFTER 09Z. AFTER ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY...
STRONG SFC-850MB COLD ADVECTION SENDS 925MB TEMPS INTO THE 0C TO +3C
RANGE BY 12Z FRI. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPS BY FRI MORNING WILL
FEEL MUCH MORE NOVEMBER LIKE. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/
LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FOR FRIDAY THRU SAT NIGHT...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS.
05.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF R HGTS TO BRIEFLY RISE FRI IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH/SHORTWAVE...AHEAD OF A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRI NIGHT. TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR THIS TROUGH/WAVE TO QUICKLY MOVE
EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION SAT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE FOR FRI THRU SAT
NIGHT IS GOOD.
FRI/SAT CONTINUE TO SHAPE UP AS A COUPLE DAYS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE NORTHWEST SFC-700MB FLOW BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION. WEAKER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA FRI...WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS IT PASSES SAT. 925MB TEMPS IN THE +2C
TO +6C RANGE FRI AND 0C TO +4C RANGE SAT. SOME 925-850MB MOISTURE
CAUGHT IN CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA FRI. RESULTING
CLOUDS WILL LIMITING WARMING/MIXING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA. WITH PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING...STRONGER TREND FOR
DRYING IN THE 925-850MB LAYER AND MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY...WITH MORE DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING. EVEN WITH THE COOLER
925MB TEMPS SAT...SAT HIGHS LOOKING TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRI.
COOLEST OF THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA SAT MORNING
BUT SOME WEST TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STIRRED AND LOWS MORE IN THE LOW-MID 30S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOW LAYING/SHELTERED AREAS FOR DECOUPLING AND
POTENTIAL OF COLDER LOWS. WEAKER GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT
AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TO DECOUPLE
DURING THE EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. SFC WINDS LOOKING TO INCREASE WEST OF
THE MS RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN
DECOUPLED THRU THE NIGHT ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER....FOR WHAT
SHOULD BE THE COLDER OF THE 2 NIGHTS...EVEN AS LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION STARTS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 05.00Z SHOW IMPROVING CONSENSUS ON
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
TREND IS NOW FOR A MUCH WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVE OUT OF THIS TROUGH TO
MOVE ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY MON/MON NIGHT...WITH RIDGING
ALOFT TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO TUE. BY WED...MODELS AT ODDS
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND BRINGS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY INTO THE REGION ON WED WHILE ECMWF
SLOWER AND KEEPS SOME RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION INTO MID-WEEK.
FCST CONFIDENCE GOOD SUN/MON...TRENDING BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.
DRY/WARMING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DOMINATE THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/MON AS
THE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. SUN/MON
SHAPING UP TO BE A COUPLE OF MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH TEMPS BACK ABOVE
NORMAL...NOT AS FAR ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PAST 3 DAYS...BUT HIGHS IN
THE 50S. WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TO PASS MON/MON NIGHT AND MINIMAL
SFC REFLECTION OF IT...MON/MON NIGHT TREND DRY ACROSS THE AREA. HGTS
RISE FOR TUE BEHIND THIS FEATURE...WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE +7C TO
+10C RANGE...FOR WHAT SHOULD BE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH BY WED...BUT SOME RAIN CHANCES TUE NIGHT/WED PER THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OKAY UNTIL THE MODEL DIFFERENCES/DETAILS
SORT THEMSELVES OUT. WITH SUN-TUE TRENDING TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MIXING...TRENDED HIGHS THESE DAYS A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE...THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOWS THRU THE PERIOD AND WED
HIGHS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FINE LINE VISIBLE LATE THIS MORNING IN BOTH THE RADAR DATA AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
MARKING THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 05.15Z HRRR AND CR-
HRRR RUNS ALONG WITH THE 05.12Z HI-RES ARW AND NMM ALL SEEM TO
HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT.
THESE MODELS ALL SUGGEST IT WILL COME THROUGH THE TAF SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT
IS STILL PRETTY WEAK AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BOTH THE 05.15Z RAP AND
05.12Z NAM SUGGEST THE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DOES NOT
CATCH UP WITH THE FRONT UNTIL IT HAS PASSED THROUGH BOTH TAF
SITES. THIS TREND IS SHOWN BY ALL THE HI-RES MODELS BRINGING THE
FRONT THROUGH WITH A VERY NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THEN
BLOSSOMING THE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST ONCE THE FORCING INCREASES.
WILL MOVE UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE A LITTLE BIT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHORTEN UP THE WINDOW OF WHEN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND BEHIND IT WITH LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY AS WELL. THE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. THE MOISTURE
STARTS TO DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE CLOUDS TO START SCATTERING OUT AND HAVE SHOWN THIS FOR KRST.
THIS SHOULD HAPPEN RIGHT ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY FOR KLSE SO WILL LET THE
NEXT FORECAST DETAIL THAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1015 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
RAIN AND/OR SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT
TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SLUSH AND BLACK ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE PROBLEMS ON AREA ROADWAYS AS SEVERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28-32 DEGREES ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. OPTED TO MAINTAIN A WINTER WX
ADZY FOR THESE AREAS AS PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
12-15Z...AND BLACK ICE IS MAKING ROADS TREACHEROUS FOR THE EARLY AM
COMMUTE. WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADZY FOR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS SNOTELS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH CHANGE IN
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/OBJECTIVE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT 10Z...WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
VORT LOBE AND H25 JET ENERGY SHIFTING EAST INTO CENTRAL NE. DYNAMICS
WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN
END BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND H7 TEMPS
IN THE -8 TO -10 DEG C RANGE...ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z COULD GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TOWARD THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. GFS/NAM SUGGEST H7-
H8 WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS OVER THE TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS W/
LLVL CAG-CPR GRADIENTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 METERS. THIS MAY VERY WELL
BE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON...BUT PREFER TO SEE A
BETTER GRADIENT TO BE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH. KEPT GUSTS
AROUND 55 MPH FOR THAT REASON...AND ONLY AROUND 45 MPH FOR BORDEAUX
AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AS THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST FAVORABLE
MSLP GRADIENTS TO THE WEST. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
FALL IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES...BUT MODELED QPF LESS THAN A
HALF INCH WOULD SUGGEST A MARGINAL ADVISORY SCENARIO AT BEST.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
12Z SAT. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROFILES DRY OUT QUITE RAPIDLY AS WELL...SO
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE PAC NW
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WILL DEEPEN THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. RESULTANT SFC WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SATURDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE
THAN A TYPICAL BREEZY NOVEMBER DAY IN WYOMING. AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY USHERING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND CONTINUED BREEZY WSW WINDS AT THE SFC. THE WIND
PRONE AREAS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIMEFRAME FOR ANY STRENGTHENING
OF THE GRADIENT OR WAA IN THE MODELS AS THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS.
MODELS THEN SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. INITIALLY...GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
PVA AND LEFT-EXIT JET DYNAMICS INITIATING LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES SHOULD BRING US A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY. WOULD EXPECT RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND AHEAD OF STRONGEST CAA...CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY AS THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS SURGES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION
REMAINS AS TO HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL STICK AROUND CONSIDERING
MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICK THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT
EASTWARD. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...POPS
COULD LINGER THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY IF THE SLOWER ECMWF WINS OUT.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SHOULD BREAK OUT HERE SHORTLY LATER
THIS MORNING FROM MVFR CEILINGS. SHOULD BE NO WEATHER IMPACTS TO
AVIATION THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING TONIGHT THAT COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO KRWL.
WILL WATCH THIS FURTHER TO SEE IF ANY IMPACTS DEVELOP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND SOME SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CONTINUED
COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL OUTSIDE
OF CRITICAL TERRITORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...MAINLY FRI/SAT NIGHTS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
514 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
RAIN AND/OR SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT
TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SLUSH AND BLACK ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE PROBLEMS ON AREA ROADWAYS AS SEVERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28-32 DEGREES ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. OPTED TO MAINTAIN A WINTER WX
ADZY FOR THESE AREAS AS PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
12-15Z...AND BLACK ICE IS MAKING ROADS TREACHEROUS FOR THE EARLY AM
COMMUTE. WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADZY FOR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS SNOTELS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH CHANGE IN
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/OBJECTIVE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT 10Z...WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
VORT LOBE AND H25 JET ENERGY SHIFTING EAST INTO CENTRAL NE. DYNAMICS
WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN
END BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND H7 TEMPS
IN THE -8 TO -10 DEG C RANGE...ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z COULD GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TOWARD THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. GFS/NAM SUGGEST H7-
H8 WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS OVER THE TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS W/
LLVL CAG-CPR GRADIENTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 METERS. THIS MAY VERY WELL
BE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON...BUT PREFER TO SEE A
BETTER GRADIENT TO BE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH. KEPT GUSTS
AROUND 55 MPH FOR THAT REASON...AND ONLY AROUND 45 MPH FOR BORDEAUX
AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AS THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST FAVORABLE
MSLP GRADIENTS TO THE WEST. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
FALL IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES...BUT MODELED QPF LESS THAN A
HALF INCH WOULD SUGGEST A MARGINAL ADVISORY SCENARIO AT BEST.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
12Z SAT. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROFILES DRY OUT QUITE RAPIDLY AS WELL...SO
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE PAC NW
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WILL DEEPEN THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. RESULTANT SFC WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SATURDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE
THAN A TYPICAL BREEZY NOVEMBER DAY IN WYOMING. AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY USHERING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND CONTINUED BREEZY WSW WINDS AT THE SFC. THE WIND
PRONE AREAS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIMEFRAME FOR ANY STRENGTHENING
OF THE GRADIENT OR WAA IN THE MODELS AS THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS.
MODELS THEN SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. INITIALLY...GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
PVA AND LEFT-EXIT JET DYNAMICS INITIATING LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES SHOULD BRING US A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY. WOULD EXPECT RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND AHEAD OF STRONGEST CAA...CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY AS THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS SURGES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION
REMAINS AS TO HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL STICK AROUND CONSIDERING
MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICK THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT
EASTWARD. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...POPS
COULD LINGER THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY IF THE SLOWER ECMWF WINS OUT.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
SNOW/RAIN IS STEADILY PUSHING EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CLEAR
THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS FILLED IN
BEHIND THE PRECIP BUT SHOULD STEADILY LIFT THROUGH MID MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF
CYCLE...WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT...BUT WILL STAY GUSTY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND SOME SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CONTINUED
COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL OUTSIDE
OF CRITICAL TERRITORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...MAINLY FRI/SAT NIGHTS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
WYZ115>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
RAIN AND/OR SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT
TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SLUSH AND BLACK ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE PROBLEMS ON AREA ROADWAYS AS SEVERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28-32 DEGREES ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. OPTED TO MAINTAIN A WINTER WX
ADZY FOR THESE AREAS AS PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
12-15Z...AND BLACK ICE IS MAKING ROADS TREACHEROUS FOR THE EARLY AM
COMMUTE. WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADZY FOR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS SNOTELS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH CHANGE IN
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/OBJECTIVE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT 10Z...WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
VORT LOBE AND H25 JET ENERGY SHIFTING EAST INTO CENTRAL NE. DYNAMICS
WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN
END BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND H7 TEMPS
IN THE -8 TO -10 DEG C RANGE...ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z COULD GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TOWARD THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. GFS/NAM SUGGEST H7-
H8 WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS OVER THE TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS W/
LLVL CAG-CPR GRADIENTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 METERS. THIS MAY VERY WELL
BE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON...BUT PREFER TO SEE A
BETTER GRADIENT TO BE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH. KEPT GUSTS
AROUND 55 MPH FOR THAT REASON...AND ONLY AROUND 45 MPH FOR BORDEAUX
AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AS THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST FAVORABLE
MSLP GRADIENTS TO THE WEST. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
FALL IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES...BUT MODELED QPF LESS THAN A
HALF INCH WOULD SUGGEST A MARGINAL ADVISORY SCENARIO AT BEST.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
12Z SAT. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROFILES DRY OUT QUITE RAPIDLY AS WELL...SO
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE PAC NW
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WILL DEEPEN THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. RESULTANT SFC WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SATURDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE
THAN A TYPICAL BREEZY NOVEMBER DAY IN WYOMING. AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY USHERING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND CONTINUED BREEZY WSW WINDS AT THE SFC. THE WIND
PRONE AREAS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIMEFRAME FOR ANY STRENGTHENING
OF THE GRADIENT OR WAA IN THE MODELS AS THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS.
MODELS THEN SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. INITIALLY...GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
PVA AND LEFT-EXIT JET DYNAMICS INITIATING LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES SHOULD BRING US A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY. WOULD EXPECT RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND AHEAD OF STRONGEST CAA...CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY AS THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS SURGES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION
REMAINS AS TO HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL STICK AROUND CONSIDERING
MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICK THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT
EASTWARD. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...POPS
COULD LINGER THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY IF THE SLOWER ECMWF WINS OUT.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MST WED NOV 4 2015
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. ABOVE 5000 FEET MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW WITH
RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOW CEILINGS AND FALLING SNOW WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND SOME SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CONTINUED
COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL OUTSIDE
OF CRITICAL TERRITORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...MAINLY FRI/SAT NIGHTS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
WYZ115>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
906 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.EVENING UPDATE...
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT ATTM COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY AND EVEN
EARLIER IN THE EVENING WHEN WE HAD FREQUENT OFFSHORE GUSTS OF 4O TO
45 MPH. HOWEVER GRADIENTS REMAIN MODERATE OFFSHORE AND BELIEVE THIS
IS JUST A DIURNAL LULL...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE
LIKELY AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN
THE MOST FAVORED OFFSHORE LOCATIONS SUCH AS SILL HILL AND FREMONT
CANYON. MEANWHILE IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATION MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN THE DESERTS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
CHILLY AS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES FELL TO AROUND
FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE HIGH DESERT.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
TROUGH...THIS ONE MORE OF AN INSIDE SLIDER...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION THIS FAR SOUTH. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS DUE
TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE
ANOTHER SOLID WIND ADVISORY EVENT FOR THE ONSHORE FAVORED LOCATIONS
THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAINS...PASSES AND CANYONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND CONTINUED WARMER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN
THE RIDGES...PASSES...CANYONS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 MPH IN THOSE AREAS.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...COOLER AGAIN WITH A RETURN OF
NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO THE COAST...VALLEYS AND
COASTAL SLOPES AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION. WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW WITH CONTINUED WARMING FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 1256 PM PST)...FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN
RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NOT
EVEN A HINT OF ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF IT FAR OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE 7.8
MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...WHEREAS THEY WERE 2.6 MB AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FAVORED RIDGES...PASSES...CANYONS
AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS REPORTING NORTHEAST TO EAST GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THESE STRONGER GUSTS AS
OPPOSED TO THE LOCAL WRF. CONSIDERING THE STRONGER WINDS THAN
ANTICIPATED...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL FOOTHILL
AND PASS/CANYON LOCATIONS. THESE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AND STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT FURTHER LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND WEAK RIDGE ALOFT IS RESULTING IN WARMING
TODAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE WARMING TRENDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THAT DAY.
THE STILL RELATIVELY COLD AIR MASS...WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES RESULTED IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE HIGH DESERTS
THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING BELOW FREEZING
IN SEVERAL SPOTS. HOWEVER...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
INCREASE BY A FEW DEG C BY TONIGHT...SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN THE HIGH DESERTS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A COOLING TREND AND THE
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER. DEEP MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL...VALLEY AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...THE MORNING STRATUS IS
UNLIKELY TO CLEAR MUCH...IF AT ALL...AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION.
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN...AND THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS THAN THE WINDS WE ARE CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW
CLOUDS. HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
WARMING TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
070400Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT.
NORTHEAST SANTA ANA WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 20-30 KT WILL SURFACE
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS AT TIMES THROUGH SAT MORNING.
HOWEVER...WINDS ABOVE 20 KT ARE UNLIKELY AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES...INCLUDING KONT.
&&
.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CA WILL BRING
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT...HIGH ENOUGH TO BE
A HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. COMBINED SEAS OF 6-10 FEET ARE LIKELY MON-
TUE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE FAVORED RIDGES...PASSES...CANYONS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH LIKELY. THE
WINDS WILL ALSO BRING DAY-TIME HUMIDITY DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR THE
INLAND AREAS. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AT NIGHT WILL BE POOR TO MODERATE.
HOWEVER...RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS UNLIKELY TO BE MET AND THE
RECENT RAINS SHOULD HAVE INCREASED FUEL MOISTURES ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY
LATE SATURDAY AND TURN ONSHORE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER SANTA ANA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SAN DIEGO FOR OCTOBER WAS 7.7 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. THAT WAS ONLY THE FOURTH MONTH IN THE HISTORY OF
SAN DIEGO WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR A MONTH WAS 7 OR MORE
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
DEPARTURE
FROM AVERAGE MONTH YEAR
+8.2 SEPTEMBER 1984
+7.7 OCTOBER 2015
+7.2 JULY 1984
+7.2 MARCH 2015
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JMB
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE
PREVIOUS/FIRE...HARRISON
CLIMATE...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
402 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY AND
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS ON TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
AT 08Z IT WAS ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH MARKED BY A DROP IN DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 40S. COOLER AIR IS LAGGING A BIT LONGER WITH TEMPS STILL
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE NY METRO AREA. FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE S AND E OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF AN APPROACHING 140KT JET...COLD ADVECTION (STRATO-CU) AND A
WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSING TO THE S OF THE AREA THIS AFTN AND EVE.
THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS MORNING AND TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTN. ALL MESO/GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING HI RES HRRR INDICATE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE BRUSHED BY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD...EXCEPT FOR THE EC. HAVE GONE WITH CONSENSUS AND ADDED LOW
CHC POPS AS SOME AREAS COULD MEASURE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS THE REAL POST-FRONTAL COOLER AIR
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY RAIN WILL END THIS EVENING WITH UPPER TROUGH/JET SWINGING
THROUGH AND CLEARING SKIES. CAA CONTINUES WITH WINDS REMAINING
HIGH ENOUGH AT MOST LOCATIONS TO PRECLUDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 40
ELSEWHERE (MID TO UPPER 40S IN NYC).
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL LEVELS...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT
AND TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS FAR OUTLYING AREAS IF PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELENTS. THINK EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS...SO HAVE INCLUDED IN THE HWO.
A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL EVENTUALLY GET
PICKED UP IN DEEPENING SW FLOW AND APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY/TUE
NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS. BEFORE THEN...BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS MON AND TUE...WITH HIGH TEMPS MODERATING INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.
THEREAFTER...SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF A VIGOROUS WESTERN TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THEN GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK. SOME OF
THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AMOUNT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
WESTERN US TROUGH AND THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE SIMILAR TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. IN TERMS OF LOCAL SENSIBLE WEATHER
THOUGH...PROBABILITY IS INCREASING OF SEEING A PERIOD OF WETTING
RAINS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THU INTO THU NIGHT...BUT TIMING WILL
HAVE TO BE REFINED AS THE THE EVENT NEARS. OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS OF AROUND 5 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED WED
THROUGH FRI WITH EAST COAST RIDING AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...WITH A SPEED AROUND
10KT THROUGHOUT BY MID MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY WILL VARY WITHIN +/-
20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 310 TRUE. WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
PROBABLE TONIGHT FOR CITY AND COASTAL TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT PROBABLE...WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS CONTINUE TO FALL ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. WITH 44065 DOWN
TO 4.6 FT...44025 AT 4.9 FT AND 44017 AT 6.2 FT...HAVE CANCELLED THE
SCA FOR ANZ-355...MAINTAINED AS IS FOR ANZ-353 AND EXTENDED THROUGH
15Z FOR ANZ-350. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY
RELAXED OVER THE REGION...SO WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY INCREASING TO UP TO 15 KT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH 25-
30 KT 950 HPA WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL. SO EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30KT ON ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY W LONG ISLAND SOUND. AS A RESULT ISSUED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/EASTERN
SOUND/EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 23Z TONIGHT-17Z SUNDAY. HAVE
ALSO ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS AND NY HARBOR. FOR NOW...ONLY APPEARS WILL BE AT MOST A 6 HR
WINDOW FOR SCA GUSTS ON THE W HARBOR...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE
MARGINAL. SO WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE HERE...HAVE NOT GONE WITH AN
SCA FOR THE W SOUND FOR NOW...LATER SHIFTS COULD ADJUST THIS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 950 HPA WINDS SHOULD DECREASE ENOUGH TO
BRING ALL WATERS TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY LAX OVER THE AREA FROM
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY THAT WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS OVER ALL WATERS
IN THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ338-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ353.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1032 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE WITH BULK OF
CLOUDS NOW SOUTH OF CWA. REPLACING THE CLOUDS ARE TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE 30S...AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH DROP CWA INTO THE 20S WHICH GOING FORECAST HAS
COVERED WELL. TIGHT T/TD SPREADS ARE ALLOWING PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN EASTERN COLORADO.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE ADDED IN MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG THRU
12Z SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES. IF AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG INCREASES
OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT FOR NOW
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS OUT TO COVER POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND OVER OUR CWA...TO THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
FROM WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AXIS OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAVE RESULTED
IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN THE WEST HAVE
RESULTED IN RAIN/SNOW MIX WHERE MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE SATURATED THE
DRY MIXED LAYER. THE FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...THE HIGHER THE WBZ
HEIGHTS ARE AND LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST...SO I WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE (ROUGHLY AROUND SUNSET). WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING...NAM/SREF STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z
SATURDAY. CONSIDERING FORECAST TEMPS THIS WOULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG
POTENTIAL AND SLICK ROADWAYS. RAP IS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...WITH HRRR
TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH AND FOG SIGNAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE I HAVE DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING FOG MENTION
IN THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...AND WILL ALLOW
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
BUILDING LEE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WAA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AT
LEAST IN THE MID 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE UPPER
50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG FIRST TWO
NIGHTS...WINDS/FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY...AND CHANCE/TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO
A MORE AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW HAS BEEN NOTED
IN THE PACIFIC IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
MODELS WERE STARTING FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS WERE NOT QUITE AMPLIFIED/TOO FAR EAST WITH THE ALASKA SYSTEM
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WAS NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH.
OVERALL THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. THE NAM
AND ECMWF WERE STARTING OUT WELL AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS/CANADIAN
AND THE ECMWF/NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGING AND DRY AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE.
COULD END UP RATHER MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR DUE TO THE WINDS
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM SHOWING FOG
IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. HOWEVER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS THE
NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS. WILL PROBABLY
END BEING A THICK FROST OR DEW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...RETREATING SURFACE HIGH/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH
CREATES A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE PROGGED 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS LOOK TO CREATE
BREEZY AND ESPECIALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. DEWPOINTS TO BE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. AT THIS TIME...THE LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SO WE LOOK SAFE FOR NOW ON FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES.
AGAIN THE NAM LOOKS LIKE IT IS OVERDOING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WITH A CONTINUED DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO WILL ONCE AGAIN END
UP AS FROST OR DEW.
MONDAY...DEEP DRY AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. AT THE SAME TIME A
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING OR BE
NEAR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT WILL PROBABLY
ONLY SEE HIGH CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. JET/LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT GETS STRONGER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO A
DEEP DRY LAYER...IT ONLY LOOKS LIKE MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN REGARDS TO THE MID LEVEL
PORTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SOME PRECIPITATION...
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...
DIFFERING TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN AND SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT. FOR THE GFS...THE LAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BECOME SLOWER AND
IT IS NOW THE SLOWEST MODEL AND ALSO A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE
12Z ECMWF STILL HAS ABOUT THE SAME PATH AND IS THE MOST WOUND UP
AS BEFORE...HOWEVER IT IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND
THE GFS. CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE.
THE GEFS TENDED TO SIDE A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION.
THE WPC DISCUSSION AND MANUAL PROGS WENT TOWARD THE INTERMEDIATE
SOLUTION...CLOSER TO THE GEFS/ECMWF MEAN SOLUTION. THE INIT BLEND
REFLECTED THE INTERMEDIATE/SLOWER SOLUTION. CONSIDERING THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...MADE NO CHANGES
TO WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR POPS. THIS AMOUNTED TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GOING WITH THE ABOVE DEPICTION...I SLOWED DOWN/KEPT THE CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW FURTHER WEST. ALL SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TO JUST ACROSS THE COLORADO BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS.
A MIXTURE WILL BE JUST EAST OF THAT AND ALL RAIN STILL IN THE
EAST. THE SNOW OR MIXTURE SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO RAIN BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT AND HAVE THE MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW ENDING AT
THAT TIME. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING NEAR AN INCH IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BUT THAT COULD CHANGE QUICKLY IF MORE WAFFLING
OF SOLUTIONS OCCUR.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL COOL
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC. SOME
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z-12Z FOR BOTH SITES. WINDS FOR KGLD
LGT/VAR THRU 15Z SATURDAY MORNING THEN SW 10-20KTS. FOR
KMCK...WINDS WSW AROUND 10KTS THRU 23Z SATURDAY...THEN SW
10-20KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
916 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE WITH BULK OF
CLOUDS NOW SOUTH OF CWA. REPLACING THE CLOUDS ARE TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE 30S...AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH DROP CWA INTO THE 20S WHICH GOING FORECAST HAS
COVERED WELL. TIGHT T/TD SPREADS ARE ALLOWING PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN EASTERN COLORADO.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE ADDED IN MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG THRU
12Z SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES. IF AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG INCREASES
OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT FOR NOW
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS OUT TO COVER POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND OVER OUR CWA...TO THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
FROM WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AXIS OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAVE RESULTED
IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN THE WEST HAVE
RESULTED IN RAIN/SNOW MIX WHERE MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE SATURATED THE
DRY MIXED LAYER. THE FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...THE HIGHER THE WBZ
HEIGHTS ARE AND LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST...SO I WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE (ROUGHLY AROUND SUNSET). WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING...NAM/SREF STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z
SATURDAY. CONSIDERING FORECAST TEMPS THIS WOULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG
POTENTIAL AND SLICK ROADWAYS. RAP IS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...WITH HRRR
TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH AND FOG SIGNAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE I HAVE DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING FOG MENTION
IN THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...AND WILL ALLOW
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
BUILDING LEE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WAA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AT
LEAST IN THE MID 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE UPPER
50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG FIRST TWO
NIGHTS...WINDS/FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY...AND CHANCE/TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO
A MORE AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW HAS BEEN NOTED
IN THE PACIFIC IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
MODELS WERE STARTING FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS WERE NOT QUITE AMPLIFIED/TOO FAR EAST WITH THE ALASKA SYSTEM
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WAS NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH.
OVERALL THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. THE NAM
AND ECMWF WERE STARTING OUT WELL AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS/CANADIAN
AND THE ECMWF/NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGING AND DRY AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE.
COULD END UP RATHER MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR DUE TO THE WINDS
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM SHOWING FOG
IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. HOWEVER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS THE
NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS. WILL PROBABLY
END BEING A THICK FROST OR DEW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...RETREATING SURFACE HIGH/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH
CREATES A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE PROGGED 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS LOOK TO CREATE
BREEZY AND ESPECIALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. DEWPOINTS TO BE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. AT THIS TIME...THE LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SO WE LOOK SAFE FOR NOW ON FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES.
AGAIN THE NAM LOOKS LIKE IT IS OVERDOING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WITH A CONTINUED DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO WILL ONCE AGAIN END
UP AS FROST OR DEW.
MONDAY...DEEP DRY AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. AT THE SAME TIME A
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING OR BE
NEAR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT WILL PROBABLY
ONLY SEE HIGH CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. JET/LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT GETS STRONGER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO A
DEEP DRY LAYER...IT ONLY LOOKS LIKE MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN REGARDS TO THE MID LEVEL
PORTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SOME PRECIPITATION...
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...
DIFFERING TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN AND SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT. FOR THE GFS...THE LAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BECOME SLOWER AND
IT IS NOW THE SLOWEST MODEL AND ALSO A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE
12Z ECMWF STILL HAS ABOUT THE SAME PATH AND IS THE MOST WOUND UP
AS BEFORE...HOWEVER IT IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND
THE GFS. CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE.
THE GEFS TENDED TO SIDE A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION.
THE WPC DISCUSSION AND MANUAL PROGS WENT TOWARD THE INTERMEDIATE
SOLUTION...CLOSER TO THE GEFS/ECMWF MEAN SOLUTION. THE INIT BLEND
REFLECTED THE INTERMEDIATE/SLOWER SOLUTION. CONSIDERING THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...MADE NO CHANGES
TO WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR POPS. THIS AMOUNTED TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GOING WITH THE ABOVE DEPICTION...I SLOWED DOWN/KEPT THE CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW FURTHER WEST. ALL SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TO JUST ACROSS THE COLORADO BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS.
A MIXTURE WILL BE JUST EAST OF THAT AND ALL RAIN STILL IN THE
EAST. THE SNOW OR MIXTURE SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO RAIN BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT AND HAVE THE MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW ENDING AT
THAT TIME. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING NEAR AN INCH IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BUT THAT COULD CHANGE QUICKLY IF MORE WAFFLING
OF SOLUTIONS OCCUR.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL COOL
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
FOR KGLD/KMCK...VFR/MVFR MIX THRU 08Z WITH BKN035-060 DOWN TO
BKN015 AT TIMES WITH VCSH. AFTER 08Z...BKN003 CEILINGS WITH 6SM BR
AT TIMES. BY 15Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH SKC. WINDS NNW AROUND 10KTS
BECOMING LGT/VAR THRU 15Z THEN SW 10-20KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
405 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE THAT FOLLOWS WILL KEEP TODAY MUCH CLOSER TO TYPICAL EARLY
NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EDGES UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
IN THE PREDAWN... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
APPALACHAINS AND TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW AND
THERE IS A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR SOME. EXPECT SHOWER THREAT TO
COALESCE OVER CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MD TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS IN.
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY. EXPECTING
TODAY TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. BEST CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS AS
FORECAST BY THE MESO MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE NSSL WRF
AND SPC SSEO WILL BE OVER CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MD
WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THERE. HIGH
PRES WILL KICK THAT OUT BY LATE TODAY WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS
IN THE 50S FOR SUNDAY WITH SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE WEEK AHD...FLOW PTTN ACRS MOST OF THE CONUS GNLY ZONAL. WL
HV BROAD RDGG ACRS THE CENTRAL AND EAST...W/ PACKETS OF ENERGY
EJECTING FM A PACIFIC COAST TROF. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WL BE
EMERGING FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TWD THE OHVLY MON...AND SHUD REACH
THE ERN GRTLKS WHILE FILLING TUE. CWFA WL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM....WHICH WL PROMOTE SLY FLOW/WAA/UPGLIDE. CLDS WL BE
ADVANCING NWD DURING THE DAY...SPCLY THE AFTN...W/ PSBL -SHRA AT
NGT. CWFA MAY BE A BIT REMOVED FM BEST PVA...BUT THAT WUD BE
COMPENSATED BY THTE RDG/INVERTED TROF. GDNC DISPLAYING A BIT OF
SPREAD AS TO HOW THIS WL ALL TRANSPIRE. FCST HIEST POPS /HIGH END
CHC TO LOW END LKLY/ WL BE APPROX MIDNGT-NOON TUE...NEARER THESE
AXES.
BY TUE NGT...A SHARPER WEST COAST TROF WL DVLP...FROM WHICH A MORE
POTENT LOW WL EMERGE WED. ITS CONCERN LCLLY WL BE ON THU...AS LOPRES
WL BE RUMBLING ACRS THE GRTLKS...DROPPING A CDFNT ACRS THE CWFA.
ONCE AGAIN...HV POPS ON THE HIER SIDE OF CHC...FOCUSED PRIMARILY
DURING THE DAY ON THU. WUD XPCT SOME ADJUSTMENT OF TIMING AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. CHC POPS WED NGT AND THU NGT REFLECT THAT.
ENVIRONMENT WL REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND HUMID THRU THE MIDWEEK.
THIS WL MANIFEST ITSELF IN DEWPTS/LOW TEMPS AND POTENTIALLY CLDCVR.
TEMPS NOT FAR FM WPC...WHICH UTILIZES A MULTI-MODEL MEAN.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR ROUGHLY FOR THE N HALF OF OUR DOMAIN TODAY...WHILE MVFR AND
POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF IFR IN THE SOUTH. DIVIDING LINE WILL BE NEAR
THE MAJOR TAF SITES OF IAD DCA AND BWI. ATTM EXPECTING BWI WILL BE
WITH THE N AND IAD AND DCA WITH THE S. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THRU THIS MORNING. VFR RETURNS FOR ALL BY
TONIGHT AND LASTS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
MON...VFR DURING THE DAY. CHC SHRA ARRIVING AT NGT. PCPN SHUD BE
LGT PRECLUDING SUBSTANTIVE RESTRICTIONS TIL LATE.
TUE...FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO LOW CLDS/FOG/CHC PCPN.
WED...LOWER CONFIDENCE VFR. MAY HV RESTRICTIONS TO START...AND
UNSURE HOW QUICKLY THIS WUD LIFT. FURTHER...ADDTL SHRA MAY BE
APPROACHING AT NGT.
&&
.MARINE...
NW WINDS MOVE IN THIS MORNING. EXPECT GUSTS OF 10 TO 15 KT DURING
THE DAY TODAY. AS HIGH BUILDS IN AND WINDS BECOME N TONIGHT...
CHANNELING FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADV
CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY...DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY.
NO SCA HAZARDS XPCTD THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PD. WINDS SHUD HV A
SUBSTANTIAL CONTRIBUTION FM ELY FLOW.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ531>534-537>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...CAS/HTS
MARINE...CAS/HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
324 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS ODDLY HELD ON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS A VERY STRONG +160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET HAS
IMPEDED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE FOOTPRINT OF THE RIDGING HAS
BEEN SHRINKING STEADILY IN RESPONSE TO METHODICAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN ALMOST DUE WESTERLY FLOW. BLOCKED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN CWA AS OF 06Z. A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE OF THIS CVA HAS BEEN A BREAKING OFF OF SOME
LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WITH THE -DIV CENTER NOW
WORKING EASTWARD ON THE PREFERRED I-94 TRAJECTORY. ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL THETA E POOLED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR OF SUBTLE INCREASED
CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS. WITH IR IMAGERY SHOWING REGENERATION OF LAKE
CLOUD ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINES...DECIDED THERE
WAS ENOUGH IN FAVOR OF ADDING SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST BETWEEN
06-12Z.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET CORE OVERLYING THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...NE US...AND CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PULL EASTWARD TODAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEART OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME
POSITIONED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 18-00Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECASTED TO FALL FROM ROUGHLY -1C AND -3C THIS MORNING TO -3
AND -5 C BY THIS EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE STEADY CAA REGIME WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT OVER LAKE HURON. THERE IS A VERY FAVORABLE
SMALL SCALE MIDLEVEL THETA E RIDGE STRUCTURE THAT IS FORECASTED TO
ORGANIZE OVER SEMICHIGAN AT 21Z WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE. IT
REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO GO MUCH MORE THAN A CHANCE POP AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS A DRY TRAJECTORY FOR THE AREA...BUT EXPECTING
ENOUGH RADAR RETURNS TO WARRANT THE CHANCE/SCATTERED MENTION. WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...SURFACE WET BULB VALUES WILL BE IN
THE BALLPARK TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW PELLET TYPE HYDROMETEORS. AT THIS
STAGE WILL HONOR THE BULK PARAMETERS...OF WARMISH +8C SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND FREEZING HEIGHTS AT 3000 FT TO KEEP THE FORECAST
AS RAIN. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE HERE.
THE ONSLAUGHT OF DRY AIR ADVECTION AT THE MIDLEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH IN
ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING PER THE RAP AND NAM. SIDED WITH
THIS OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION BEFORE FILLING CLOUDS BACK IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE AND DEEP RIDGING
WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL YIELD COLD TEMPERATURES. DID NOT STRAY OFF OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE TUCKED BENEATH WEAKLY CONFLUENT WEST-NORTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN A DRY AND STABLE PROFILE ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THE FULL SUNSHINE...LIMITED MODERATION OF THE EXISTING AIR MASS WILL
LEAVE HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 40S. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SLIP TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WITHIN A VERY DRY
AMBIENT PROFILE WILL FAVOR FULL SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EMERGING LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INTRODUCE A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTIVE COMPONENT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL
INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT AN UPWARD TREND TO
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEFT BEHIND IN THE
WAKE OF TODAY/S MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. COMPACT
CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL ASCENT TIED TO THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE
INTO AT LEAST A PERIOD OF INCREASING MID CLOUD /MAINLY SOUTH/ DURING
THIS TIME. LITTLE EVIDENCE WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST
ANYTHING BEHIND A VERY LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE QUALITY OR ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS WAVE. MINOR POPS CONFINED GENERALLY
SOUTH OF AN ANN ARBOR TO DETROIT LINE REMAIN APPROPRIATE. TRANSIENT
CLOUD DECK WOULD ALLOW A HIGHER DEGREE OF INSOLATION TO EMERGE BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN DURING THIS
TIME...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. RENEWED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE INCREASING
INSOLATION POTENTIAL WILL SUPPORT AN INCREMENTAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENT
IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 6 TO 8 C
BY 00Z TUE EVENING. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
THE AFORMENTIONED INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC MID LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY. EXTENSIVE WING OF
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT TUCKED BENEATH STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK/WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ANCHOR AN
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
MODEL OUTPUT STILL CARRYING A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY OWING TO
BOTH DIFFERENCES IN BOTH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE AND POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN WAVE...LEAVING DIFFERENCES IN BOTH
TIMING ANS STRENGTH. WITH THAT SAID...OVERALL PATTERN POINTS TOWARD
AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CENTERED ON LATE WEDNESDAY/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ABSENT OF A GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE A
MORE SIZABLE WARMUP WITH DAYTIME READINGS BALLPARK 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL /LOW-MID 60S/.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW GENERALLY WITHIN THE 15 KNOT RANGE WILL
PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR FUNNELS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP
BY MONDAY WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW OF THIS SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1227 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
WESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT,
AS WILL BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CIGS. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
CLEARING AROUND SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ANY CASE, HIGH
MVFR/LOW VFR WILL REFORM WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 25 KTS WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT 11Z AND AFTER 17Z. LOW IN BETWEEN.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
232 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...AND THEN OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM FRIDAY...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR
WEST...STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
A COLD FRONT WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT FROM PITTSBURGH TO NASHVILLE TO
LITTLE ROCK. PREFRONTAL TROUGHING SHOWS UP IN SURFACE OBS JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL ALABAMA TO UPSTATE SC. THE
LATTER MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT..AS
THE HRRR SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AFTER 09Z...POTENTIALLY AIDED BY SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE A WEAKENING INVERSION ABOVE 925MB (PER KGSO/KFFC
RAOBS). THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS STILL WEAK AND SHALLOW...SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS STILL A LITTLE SHAKY AND
THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY THUNDER SEEM VERY LOW. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO
12Z. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH PLENTY OF
STRATUS AND MILE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS...BUT EVEN THE LATTER
MODEL...ALONG WITH THE LATEST ECMWF...MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PROGRESSION EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT THE
FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE FRONT
SEEMS TO OUTRUN ITS UPPER SUPPORT...WITH JET SUPPORT STAYING NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BEING WELL POST-FRONTAL. IN THIS
SITUATION WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED FRONT THERE IS A LITTLE CONCERN
THAT THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS COULD BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION...BUT
ALL OF THE TYPICAL NWP GUIDANCE ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DELAYS MUCH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE AND
THERE WILL ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES AT BEST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL LOCATIONS LIKELY-TO-CATEGORICAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS K INDICES FALL TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS TO SINGLE FIGURES AT
BEST...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AT OR BELOW AN INCH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY NOTE MODEST INSTABILITY...AND COMPUTED CAPE
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS REGISTER...AT BEST...100 TO 200J/KG IN
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ALSO
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW A
GRADUAL FALL WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
LIKELY TOWARD THE TRIAD WHERE VALUES NEAR 70 AROUND LUNCH TIME COULD
BE ONLY IN THE MID 50S BY 7 OR 8 PM. AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
EXPECT A FEW NOCTURNAL WIND GUSTS AT LEAST TO AROUND 20KT WITH 925MB
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30KT OVERNIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FOR MINS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR NOVEMBER 7. HOWEVER...EVENING COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 7 OCCURRING
AT MIDNIGHT...WITH PROBABLY ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THE RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM OF 65 AT FAYETTEVILLE...FROM 2003...BEING APPROACHED.
LEANING TOWARD THE MAV WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESS TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...A COOL MORNING TO
START SUNDAY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE
MID 50S NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
SUNDAY...COMING SOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE REFLECTION OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SKIM ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON
MONDAY...AND MOVE NE PARALLEL TO THE U.S. COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE COASTAL LOW. MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY...AND WHILE
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO BE DRY.
THERE WILL BE A STEADY INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY TO
WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY MAY START OFF DRY...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...BUT THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH CENTRAL NC AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE
FROM THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW AT THIS POINT...
BUT EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WELL BELOW VFR AND IN SOME CASES LIFR ALREADY
IN THE TRIAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
LOW CEILINGS...BUT ALSO LOW VISIBILITY AND FOG LATER THIS MORNING.
ONLY PATCHES OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION WELL OFF TO THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF
RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A COUPLE WAVES MOVE OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD SHOULD ARRIVE
IN THE TRIAD AROUND 12Z AND THEN EXITING OUT THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CWA AFTER 3Z SUNDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BUT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
THEY WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND RAMP UP TO 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO
20-25 KTS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM: A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG TERM WITH SUNDAY
GENERALLY OK...FOLLOWED BY AN INSITU DAMMING SITUATION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER DRYING PERIOD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/22
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
231 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM FRIDAY...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR
WEST...STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
A COLD FRONT WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT FROM PITTSBURGH TO NASHVILLE TO
LITTLE ROCK. PREFRONTAL TROUGHING SHOWS UP IN SURFACE OBS JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL ALABAMA TO UPSTATE SC. THE
LATTER MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT..AS
THE HRRR SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AFTER 09Z...POTENTIALLY AIDED BY SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE A WEAKENING INVERSION ABOVE 925MB (PER KGSO/KFFC
RAOBS). THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS STILL WEAK AND SHALLOW...SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS STILL A LITTLE SHAKY AND
THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY THUNDER SEEM VERY LOW. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO
12Z. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH PLENTY OF
STRATUS AND MILE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS...BUT EVEN THE LATTER
MODEL...ALONG WITH THE LATEST ECMWF...MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PROGRESSION EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT THE
FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE FRONT
SEEMS TO OUTRUN ITS UPPER SUPPORT...WITH JET SUPPORT STAYING NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BEING WELL POST-FRONTAL. IN THIS
SITUATION WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED FRONT THERE IS A LITTLE CONCERN
THAT THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS COULD BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION...BUT
ALL OF THE TYPICAL NWP GUIDANCE ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DELAYS MUCH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE AND
THERE WILL ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES AT BEST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL LOCATIONS LIKELY-TO-CATEGORICAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS K INDICES FALL TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS TO SINGLE FIGURES AT
BEST...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AT OR BELOW AN INCH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY NOTE MODEST INSTABILITY...AND COMPUTED CAPE
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS REGISTER...AT BEST...100 TO 200J/KG IN
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ALSO
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW A
GRADUAL FALL WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
LIKELY TOWARD THE TRIAD WHERE VALUES NEAR 70 AROUND LUNCH TIME COULD
BE ONLY IN THE MID 50S BY 7 OR 8 PM. AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
EXPECT A FEW NOCTURNAL WIND GUSTS AT LEAST TO AROUND 20KT WITH 925MB
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30KT OVERNIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FOR MINS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR NOVEMBER 7. HOWEVER...EVENING COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 7 OCCURRING
AT MIDNIGHT...WITH PROBABLY ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THE RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM OF 65 AT FAYETTEVILLE...FROM 2003...BEING APPROACHED.
LEANING TOWARD THE MAV WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESS TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...A COOL MORNING TO
START SUNDAY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE
MID 50S NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
SUNDAY...COMING SOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE REFLECTION OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SKIM ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON
MONDAY...AND MOVE NE PARALLEL TO THE U.S. COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE COASTAL LOW. MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY...AND WHILE
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO BE DRY.
THERE WILL BE A STEADY INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY TO
WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY MAY START OFF DRY...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...BUT THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH CENTRAL NC AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE
FROM THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW AT THIS POINT...
BUT EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WELL BELOW VFR AND IN SOME CASES LIFR ALREADY
IN THE TRIAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
LOW CEILINGS...BUT ALSO LOW VISIBILITY AND FOG LATER THIS MORNING.
ONLY PATCHES OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION WELL OFF TO THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF
RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A COUPLE WAVES MOVE OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD SHOULD ARRIVE
IN THE TRIAD AROUND 12Z AND THEN EXITING OUT THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CWA AFTER 3Z SUNDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BUT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
THEY WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND RAMP UP TO 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO
20-25 KTS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM: A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG TERM WITH SUNDAY
GENERALLY OK...FOLLOWED BY AN INSITU DAMMING SITUATION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER DRYING PERIOD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/22
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
109 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY AND SLIDE OFFSHORE MONDAY AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OFFSHORE
OF THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT STILL BACK IN THE TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT. THINK
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAWN PER LATEST
3KM HRRR MODEL AND WILL KEEP VERY LOW POPS WELL INLAND THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH MILD LOWS
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SAG SE CROSSING NRN TIER SAT
AFTN. DEEP MOISTURE ALONG/JUST BEHIND FRONT AND CONT PREV FCST OF
CAT POPS DEVELOPING NW TIER IN AFTN WITH SLIGHT CHC/CHC FAR SE
TIER. WILL BE VERY MILD AHEAD OF FRONT WITH SRN TIER AGAIN
REACHING LOWER 80S...TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO DROP QUICKLY LATE FAR N.
CONT SLIGHT CHC TSRA MENTION AS SHLD SEE SOME WEAK INSTAB DEVELOP
IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH E NC
EARLY IN THE EVENING...THOUGH ANAFRONT SITUATION DEVELOPS AS
850MB FRONT HANGING BACK WITH OVERRUNNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THUNDER THREAT WANES BY EVENING AS
STABLE LOW LEVELS DEVELOP. COLUMN DRIES BY LATE NIGHT AS 850MB
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH CAA ENSUING AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF OF
THE COAST. LOWS: LOW 50S INLAND TO UPR 50S OBX.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: MODEL CONSENSUS IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH
HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO E NC WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER WITH GUSTY NNE WINDS AND DRASTICALLY LOWERED THICKNESSES.
HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S/LOWER 60S. CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY
LATE SUN NIGHT SOUTHERN AREAS AS 925-700MB WAA DEVELOPS WITH
BUILDING THICKNESSES. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S INLAND
TO UPR 50S OBX.
MONDAY: A PIECE OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT PASSED
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH
SFC HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING WEDGE TYPE SCENARIO
WITH OVERRUNNING COMMENCING...BRINGING AT LEAST AN INCREASE AND
THICKENING OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN LOOKS TO BEGIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION WITH MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERING BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. CMC
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH STRONG LIFT ARRIVING AS EARLY AS MON
MORNING...THOUGH REST OF MODEL SUITE DELAYS ONSET OF RAIN UNTIL
MON AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON
ARRIVAL...HAVE A GENERAL INCREASING POP TREND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ARRIVING SRN AREAS BY MON
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.
THESE TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IF PRECIP MOVES IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY: THIS PERIOD FEATURES THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
RAIN...AS MOST MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSES
THE REGION AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS FORMATION OFF THE COAST.
DETERMINISTIC GFS IS DRIEST AS IT DOES NOT DEVELOP A SFC LOW
REFLECTION AS OPPOSED TO THE ECM/CMC WHICH INDICATE A LOW MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND OFF THE SE COAST. WILL INC POPS
TO LIKELY SRN AND EASTERN AREAS MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL ZONES IF IN FACT SFC
CYCLONE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST. A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF
COULD OCCUR AS WELL WITH GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
DEEP LAYER LIFT ON COOL SIDE OF THE LOW. LOWS MON NIGHT: MID 50S
INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS TUE: UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT: THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION AND DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THICKNESSES
REMAIN HIGH SO TEMPS STILL MILD. LOWS: MID 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S
ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MAINLY DRY WITH
SUBSIDENCE ENSUING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND BROAD HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH TEMPS AS
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ABOVE
CLIMO. HIGHS: 70-75. LOWS: 55-60.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: 06/12Z MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. NEXT
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR THUR OR THUR NIGHT IN PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
WILL HEDGE BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND ILLUSTRATE RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THIS
TIME NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE QUICK
RETURN FLOW NOT BEING ABLE TO TAP MOISTURE...THOUGH WILL HANG ONTO
A 20 POP SHOULD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOW MORE THAN EXPECTED. HIGHS
THURSDAY MID/UPR 70S AND LOWS UPR 50S/LOW 60S. HIGHS A BIT COOLER
FRIDAY BEHIND FRONT IN THE LOW 70S BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN MAINLY STRATUS. CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT...THEN
WILL LOWS AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES BEHIND FRONT WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE N/NE WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND 1000 FEET AND
VSBYS DROPPING TO AROUND 4-5 MILES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TERMINALS SAT
NIGHT, WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREADING E NC THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
ANOTHER THREAT FOR IFR CONDITIONS. A BRIEF REPRIEVE IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS EARLY AS MON AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE. CONDITIONS AGAIN COULD BECOME SUB VFR WITH THE RAIN.
DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR WED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SAT/...
AS OF 1 AM SATURDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT MARINE FORECAST.
WINDS CONTINUE MOSTLY SW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FEET AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NRN TIER
LATE IN THE DAY AND EXPECT GOOD SURGE OF N WINDS TO SPREAD S
DURING THE EVENING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR ALL WATERS AND BOTH SOUNDS
AND ALLIGATOR RIVER STARTING SAT EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY N
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT SAT EVENING WITH STRONG CAA SURGE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SCA WINDS 20-30 KT AND SEAS 6-9
FEET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SUN NIGHT INTO MON THOUGH HIGH SEAS
WILL LINGER. WINDS MAY INC A BIT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
A POTENTIAL LOW PRES AREA MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THE 06/12Z
WAVEWATCH IV INDICATES 6+ FOOT SEAS CONTINUING INTO WED THOUGH
THINK IT IS OVERDONE WITH WINDS MIDWEEK.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL/LEP
AVIATION...CTC/JBM/TL
MARINE...CTC/JBM/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
204 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING...AND THEN OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM FRIDAY...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR
WEST...STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
A COLD FRONT WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT FROM PITTSBURGH TO NASHVILLE TO
LITTLE ROCK. PREFRONTAL TROUGHING SHOWS UP IN SURFACE OBS JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL ALABAMA TO UPSTATE SC. THE
LATTER MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT..AS
THE HRRR SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AFTER 09Z...POTENTIALLY AIDED BY SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE A WEAKENING INVERSION ABOVE 925MB (PER KGSO/KFFC
RAOBS). THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS STILL WEAK AND SHALLOW...SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS STILL A LITTLE SHAKY AND
THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY THUNDER SEEM VERY LOW. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO
12Z. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH PLENTY OF
STRATUS AND MILE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS...BUT EVEN THE LATTER
MODEL...ALONG WITH THE LATEST ECMWF...MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PROGRESSION EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT THE
FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE FRONT
SEEMS TO OUTRUN ITS UPPER SUPPORT...WITH JET SUPPORT STAYING NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BEING WELL POST-FRONTAL. IN THIS
SITUATION WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED FRONT THERE IS A LITTLE CONCERN
THAT THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS COULD BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION...BUT
ALL OF THE TYPICAL NWP GUIDANCE ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DELAYS MUCH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE AND
THERE WILL ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES AT BEST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL LOCATIONS LIKELY-TO-CATEGORICAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS K INDICES FALL TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS TO SINGLE FIGURES AT
BEST...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AT OR BELOW AN INCH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY NOTE MODEST INSTABILITY...AND COMPUTED CAPE
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS REGISTER...AT BEST...100 TO 200J/KG IN
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ALSO
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW A
GRADUAL FALL WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
LIKELY TOWARD THE TRIAD WHERE VALUES NEAR 70 AROUND LUNCH TIME COULD
BE ONLY IN THE MID 50S BY 7 OR 8 PM. AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
EXPECT A FEW NOCTURNAL WIND GUSTS AT LEAST TO AROUND 20KT WITH 925MB
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30KT OVERNIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FOR MINS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR NOVEMBER 7. HOWEVER...EVENING COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 7 OCCURRING
AT MIDNIGHT...WITH PROBABLY ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THE RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM OF 65 AT FAYETTEVILLE...FROM 2003...BEING APPROACHED.
LEANING TOWARD THE MAV WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESS TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...A COOL MORNING TO
START SUNDAY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE
MID 50S NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH AND SETTLING JUST OFF THE NC COAST AND ACROSS GA/SC AS A
PROGRESSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. NWP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
DRIER ON SUNDAY AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TOUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE GUSTO.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A GOOD SURGE OF DRY AIR TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS A 1032MB HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHALLOW
STRATO-CUMULUS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
IT WILL BE CHILLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S... ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A STIRRING OF THE WIND SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION APPEARS IN THE OFFING FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LINGERING COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
RETREAT WESTWARD AS AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IN THE MO VALLEY MOVES
EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT. WHILE DETAILS AMONG THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE SETS VARY...AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND SC COAST
MONDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
POPS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH THE GREATEST POPS
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE SHEARING SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIFT
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASING.
WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ENDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CAD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE FAVORED
DAMMING REGION ALTHOUGH THEY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE.
EXPECT SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE THE MAIN DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WELL BELOW VFR AND IN SOME CASES LIFR ALREADY
IN THE TRIAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
LOW CEILINGS...BUT ALSO LOW VISIBILITY AND FOG LATER THIS MORNING.
ONLY PATCHES OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION WELL OFF TO THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF
RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A COUPLE WAVES MOVE OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD SHOULD ARRIVE
IN THE TRIAD AROUND 12Z AND THEN EXITING OUT THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CWA AFTER 3Z SUNDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BUT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
THEY WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND RAMP UP TO 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO
20-25 KTS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM: A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG TERM WITH SUNDAY
GENERALLY OK...FOLLOWED BY AN INSITU DAMMING SITUATION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER DRYING PERIOD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/22
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1217 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
NO CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
NO CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS EAST. NICE FALL DAY FOR
SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 701 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 20S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UPPER TEENS SOUTHWEST
WHERE SFC DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 15F
OVERNIGHT. SUNNY AND WARMER SATURDAY!
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SWINGING THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BISMARCK AND MINOT
RADARS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS CENTRAL THAT SHOULD END THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL CLOUD FORECAST SHOWS THE CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREES THIS EVENING AS H850 WARM ADVECTION ERODES
WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS. SATURDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
AFTER MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXPECT
A COOLING TREND WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING SYSTEMS RESIDING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
POTENTIALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES.
UPPER RIDGE/HEIGHTS FLATTEN SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM
WEST COAST TROUGH THAT SPLITS AS IT CROSSES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/LOWER THICKNESSES COMMENCE MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM PASSING EITHER
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA PER GFS...OR EVEN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS
PER ECMWF. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST AN H85 COLD POCKET OF -4C BEING DRAWN
INTO AND HOVERING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD INITIALLY SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGING TO
SNOW TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GFS CONTINUES WITH A MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION FIELD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA GIVEN THE OVERALL NORTHERN
TRAJECTORY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION FIELD ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN BORDER AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...THEN THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING
ANALYSIS IN TERMS OF SNOW SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES
FROM DICKINSON TO BISMARCK AND EAST INTO JAMESTOWN...FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW/MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT PER GFS AND ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
915 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AFTER PROVIDING A MILD AND SUNNY DAY TODAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD ONSHORE SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DOWN TO
THE CASCADE PASSES BY THE TIME SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER
A BRIEF DRYING TREND TUESDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BRING MORE RAIN AT TIMES FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MARCH THROUGH THE PAC NW.
&&
.EVENING UPDATE...A HEALTHY SERVING OF CROW WAS ON THE DINNER TABLE
FOR THIS FORECASTER THIS EVENING...AS VALLEY INVERSIONS BROKE MUCH
MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DECENT MIXING
ALLOWED TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON...JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
A POORLY ORGANIZED COLD FRONT CAN BE SEEN OFFSHORE ON LATEST INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SLOWLY APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY MOVE ONSHORE IN PIECES SAT/SAT NIGHT...WITH THE SFC FRONT
SOMEWHAT DETACHED FROM THE BEST FORCING ALOFT. ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY STALL IT
FURTHER...HOLDING RAIN OFF THE COAST OF OUR CWA UNTIL JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE SAT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDEED KEEP ASTORIA DRY
UNTIL AROUND 6 AM SAT...WITH RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL 9 TO 11 AM FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THEREFORE THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SAT MAY BE
DRY INLAND...BUT MODELS SHOW DECENT CONSENSUS THAT THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE WET. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL...
THUS VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THE MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO SLOW IN
BRINGING DOWN SNOW LEVELS SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE TRIES TO TAKE
ON A BIT OF AN ANAFRONTAL SIGNATURE. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW GOOD
CONSENSUS ON HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY FOR THE SNOW LEVEL TO REACH THE
CASCADE PASSES...OUR FORECAST AND SPS REFLECT THIS WELL SO NO CHANGES
WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. WEAGLE
/PREV DISC ISSUED 303 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2015/
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SKIES CLEARED OUT MUCH OF THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING WHICH RESULTED IN A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH MANY
LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE 60S FOR A SEASONABLY WARM DAY. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAINING IN
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COAST RANGE AND NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER IN
SW WASHINGTON. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE REPLACED
BY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
LATEST FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT...PRESENTLY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BACK TO THE SW
ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. AS A RESULT...TRENDED THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL AS
PRECIPITATION BY SEVERAL HOURS. KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH
COAST FOR TONIGHT A LEADING IMPULSE MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
INITIALLY. THEN EXPECT THE MAIN LINE OF STEADY RAIN TO REACH THE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND PUSHING
INTO THE INTERIOR AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASES AS
THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STEADY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING OR NIGHT WHEN THE SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE INCH IN
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT ENTERS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH SNOW LEVELS SHARPLY
LOWERING FROM AROUND 7500 FT ON SATURDAY TO NEAR 3500 FT SUNDAY.
EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES ON THE CASCADE PASSES
FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY....WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES. DESPITE THESE AMOUNTS FALLING SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THOSE WITH PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE CASCADES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SHOULD BE PREPARED. SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT /SPSPQR/
ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR DETAILS.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OFFSHORE AND MOVES OVER THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AIDED BY THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING IN THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...AND THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAY HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
OF THESE TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT HAVE NOT EXTENDED THE
COVERAGE AT THIS TIME AS IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY BE LIMITING
FACTORS BY THIS POINT. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN PUSHES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
EXTEND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CULLEN
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION LATE MONDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
TUESDAY. COULD ALSO SEE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VALLEY FOG TUESDAY
MORNING IF CLOUDS CLEAR ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
SO WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. RAIN RETURNS WEDNESDAY
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE WET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
WE COULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN THE RAIN THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CASCADE SNOW LIKELY
CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. /64
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF IFR FOG/LOW STRATUS IN
THE INLAND VALLEYS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PORTLAND. UPS FOG FORECAST
METHOD INDICATES KEUG AND KHIO ARE THE FAVORABLE SPOTS FOR IFR FOG
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. THICKER CLOUDS EARLY AT
SHOULD STOP FOG FORMATION AND PERHAPS HELP DISSIPATE THE FOG.
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COAST LATE TONIGHT
AND SPREAD INLAND AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY...LIKELY NOT AFFECTING THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TAF SITES MUCH UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL BRING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND BREEZES WITH IT...AS
WELL AS MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST AND LOW VFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN
MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY. OFFSHORE
FLOW FROM THE GORGE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS NOT VERY
STRONG AND MAY CUT OFF TEMPORARILY FOR A THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT FRONTAL CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE A CHANCE OF LOWERING
TO MVFR WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MH PT
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS SPREADING SOUTH TONIGHT. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
WE WILL SEE GALE GUSTS AS THE CORE OF THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING THE GALES WINDS TO AN END.
SEAS MAY REACH 10 FT WITH THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THE CORE OF THE STRONGER WINDS MOVES THROUGH. THE WAVE MODELS THEN
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONGER PERIOD SWELL OF 12 TO 14 FT SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NOT DECREASING
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. 00Z ENP WAVE MODEL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK WITH THIS LONGER SWELL TRAIN. BUOY 46184 LOCATED NEAR 54N
139W MATCHES WELL WITH 06/18Z ENP WAVE. MH PT
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
10 AM TO 6 PM PST SATURDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
308 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
NAM AND RAP ARE SHOWING MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND CURRENT BATCH
EXITING SOUTHWEST MN. DO NOT SEE MORE THAN PATCHY MID LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM RIGHT NOW AND GFS LOOKS PRETTY TAME. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER PRETTY LOW AND ADJUST FOR AREA NEXT FEW HOURS IF
NEEDED...BUT RIGHT NOW FEEL CLOUDS WILL STAY MINIMAL. IN ANY EVENT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL TAKE FULL CONTROL BY LATE MORNING AND WE
WILL HAVE OUR SUNNY DAY. AT THAT TIME EVEN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
NIL SO SEE LITTLE RESTRICTION TO HEATING BY THE LOWERING MIDDAY SUN
ANGLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH 50 NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS PERHAPS AS
WARM AS THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. A MODEST BREEZE FROM
THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHWEST...THEN TO WEST BY THE END
OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD STAY PRETTY CLEAR DESPITE THE DECENTLY
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...AS MODELS SHOW IT STAYING PRETTY DRY AT
ALL LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL EARLY THEN LIKELY HOLD PRETTY
STEADY...MAYBE EVEN GO UP A BIT AT SOME PLACES DURING THE NIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY INCREASE AFTER A SLIGHT EARLY EVENING DROP. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
STILL LOOKS LIKE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIODS. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS QUITE
STRONG AND THIS HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. EVEN USING
SOME OF THE MORE DRIER DEW POINT VALUES AS SHOWN BY MOS...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE TOO MOIST FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THIS IS LIKELY
BECAUSE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACTUALLY RETURNS TODAY...AND MANY TIMES
THE SECOND DAY OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN DEW POINT VALUES
WHICH ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA. THAT SAID...THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE EITHER HIGH OR VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING DAYTIME HIGHS OVER
SUPERBLEND VALUES BY A SOLID CATEGORY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GIVEN
THE MIXED DEPTH. IN ADDITION...SUPERBLEND LOWS ARE LIKELY TOO COOL
CONSIDERING THE SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS AT NIGHT...AND CONTINUED TO
USE A LOT OF RAW MODEL VALUES INSTEAD OF MOS OR SUPERBLEND VALUES.
FURTHER OUT...INTERESTINGLY THE GFS IS NOW BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE MID WEEK UPPER LOW IN HOW IT EJECTS
THE CLOSED LOW NORTHEASTWARD. THE GEM GLOBAL...ALTHOUGH STILL
CUTTING THIS AREA OFF WITH A NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO CHANGE TO A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION OVERALL. AT
THIS TIME...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TRACK THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS
FURTHER NORTH THAN EITHER THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL. THEREFORE IT IS A
WARMER AND WETTER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD GIVE PRIMARILY A CHILLY
RAINFALL. THE GFS...BEING FURTHER SOUTH...WOULD BE MORE OF A RAIN TO
MIXED PRECIP EVENT AFFECTING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AT ANY RATE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT THIS
POINT IF THE GFS CONTINUES TO PLAY CATCH UP WITH THE ECMWF AS THE
DAYS PROGRESS...THUS THE INCREASE IN MID WEEK POPS AT THIS TIME AND
NOT GOING REAL COLD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1138 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
EVENING INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS LOCATED
FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW A MAJORITY OF RAIN SHOWERS
LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND EAST ARKANSAS SOUTH OF I-55 AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LATEST 00Z WRF AND HRRR INDICATE SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AND ADJUST ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
A COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM SAVANNAH TENNESSEE...TO OXFORD
MISSISSIPPI...TO GREENVILLE MISSISSIPPI. AN AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT AS A WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR GREENVILLE. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT AREAS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THUS FAR
NO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND THINK THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY IS SHRINKING THUS WILL REMOVE MENTION OF ANY STRONG
STORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE HWO. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW STRONG OR SEVERE LIMITS.
THE FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SATURDAY
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO EXIT THE
CWA BY SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND
THE FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE A WEAK WARM
FRONT MAY MOVE NORTHWARD SETTING OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WHILE THE
GFS IS DRY. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CWA. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS TIME PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER THE CURRENT GFS TRACK OF THE SFC LOW COULD BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX INTO AT LEAST NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF TRACK IS NOT SO
FAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING SO STAY TUNED.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT KMEM AND KTUP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH KMKL AND KJBR MAINLY DRY. VFR CIGS HAVE WORKED BACK INTO KJBR
WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS BACK TO MVFR HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
KMEM AND KMKL. THIS SLOW RISE OF CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT
KTUP AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BRISK FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY AT ALL SITES
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
RAIN SHOULD END AT KTUP BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AT KTUP. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER ON
SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
VFR CIGS AND DIMINISHING NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES FOR SATURDAY EVENING.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
208 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED UA TROUGH STRETCHED FROM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SW TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...IS
AIDING IN SENDING DOWN A COLD FRONT /AND THUS A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR/ NOTED MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS.
MODELS HINT AT THE FROPA CLEARING THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THUS SHIFTING SRLY SFC WINDS AROUND TO THE NE. BEFORE THIS
HAPPENS...IT IS NOTEWORTHY TO MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE LAST NIGHT...WERE PROPAGATING NE WITH TIME
PER 07Z RADAR ANALYSIS. THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY IS COURTESY OF AN
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKS TO THE UPSLOPE SFC REGIME AND A
BIT OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. MODELS SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS ACTIVITY
SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE FA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH THE IMPINGEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS FALLING TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
LATER ON THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES. THE NAM
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR EXHIBITS THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
FOG NEAR SUNRISE ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES. THIS COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE
GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S THERE/ BUT
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTN...THE 1030 MB SFC RIDGE DRIVING
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE A BIT OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY E-NE WIND SPEEDS /10-20 KTS/ BEFORE
RELAXING AOA SUNSET. IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE A CRISP FALL DAY
WITH THE USHERING IN OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS...AS TEMPS WILL ONLY
WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. IT IS STARTING TO SOUND LIKE AN OLD
HAT...BUT CHILLY TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR TONIGHT GIVEN THE SAME
CONDITIONS THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT MODEL
SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT AN INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN AND SWRN ZONES...WITH
THE NAM SHOWING RATHER LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NUDGING UP AGAINST THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS
POSSIBILITY...SO WILL ELECT TO KEEP WX GRID NIL ATTM...BUT WILL BUMP
POPS UP TO 9-10 PERCENT.
.LONG TERM...
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
SERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN
COLORADO AND NRN NEW MEXICO LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL BE FORMING OVER THE WRN CONUS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE FCST PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THEN
NEWD TO THE WRN SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING...
DEEPENING RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT DOES SO. THIS LOW WILL PUSH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT QUICKLY EWD THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAIRLY RICH LOW LEVEL AIR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT SUGGESTIONS ARE THAT CAP WILL HOLD THIS FAR WEST
WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FCST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST ATTM...ALTHOUGH
MODEL BLEND REMAINS NEAR THE 15 PCT THRESHOLD ACROSS THE SERN
ZONES. THE MAIN AFFECT FROM THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WILL BE
GUSTY...AND POSSIBLY STRONG...WINDS. MAGNITUDE OF PROGGED HEIGHT
GRADIENT SUGGESTS WIND WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET IF THIS
SYSTEM IS ABLE TO SLOW DOWN BY SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. AT ITS CURRENT
PROJECTED PACE WEST TO NW WINDS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OR A
TOUCH BELOW LOOK QUITE POSSIBLE. WILL BUMP WIND SPEEDS ABOUT 5 KTS
ABOVE MODEL BLEND INITIALIZATION. FINALLY...RATHER BENIGN END TO
THE WEEK CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WITH WARM LOW
LEVEL AIR LOCKED OVER NRN MEXICO MOS TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
LOOK REASONABLE ATTM.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1139 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across West
Central Texas most of the night, occasionally resulting in thunder
at the forecast terminals. However, given the brief temporal
impacts and scattered nature of the convection, most of the sites
only include showers at this time. Otherwise, expect MVFR ceilings
at all sites except KABI. A cold front will move south across the
area late tonight, eventually bringing an end to the precipitation
chances from north to south on Saturday. This is also expected to
scour out the low clouds by mid/late morning with gusty northeast
winds ushering in drier air.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
UPDATE...
Based on radar and satellite trends over the last several hours,
updated PoP, Weather, and SKY grids for the reminder of tonight.
Short-term models still indicate the best chances for rain tonight
are across our southeastern counties; thus, no PoP or Weather
changes there. The latest suite of products reflect these changes.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
MVFR ceilings continue along the I-10 corridor from KOZA TO KJCT
and are expected to expand north during the evening and overnight
hours. Dewpoints remain in the 30s farther north, but we are
seeing a northward surge in low-level moisture approaching the
Concho Valley. MVFR ceilings are expected as far north as a KSJT-
KBWD line through a few hours after sunrise, with scattered
showers, and a few thunderstorms, developing this evening and
continuing overnight. Rain chances are greatest over the northwest
Hill Country, tapering off near I-20. Rain is expected to end from
north to south by midday Saturday as a cold front brings drier air
into the region. Winds may gust over 20 kts in the wake of this
front.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
Showers and storms continue to develop across the Northwest Hill
Country this afternoon. Light northeast flow behind a cold front
combining with the cloud cover spreading northward across much of
the area to keep temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s this
afternoon. Models still have differences with regards to the
expected convection tonight, as return flow starts to bring
moisture up and over the cold front. GFS continues to confine much
of the precipitation to the Hill Country and Heartland, while the
HRRR and the TTU WRF show convection farther north and west into
San Angelo and Abilene as well. The WRF and HRRR handled
yesterdays lack of convection better, and were faster to break out
the convection earlier today. Thus, will place the higher PoPs
across the southeast, but will also increase the rain chances a
little more across the Concho Valley and Big Country as well.
A reinforcing surge of cooler and drier air moves into the area
tomorrow, ending the rainfall from north to south as it moves
through. Still cool however, even with a little sun possible in the
afternoon. Highs will remain in the low to mid 60s.
LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Isolated light showers along and south of the I-10 corridor end
Saturday night, as dry air associated with surface high pressure
builds in. 700 MB moisture and mid level clouds, however, will
persist Saturday night and Sunday, mainly south of the I-20
corridor. Low level moisture and clouds return Monday as stronger
southeast to south surface winds return Gulf moisture. The next
chance of rain comes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, as an
upper low moves across the Texas Panhandle into the Central
Plains. Unfortunately, most of the lift from this system is north
of West Central Texas. Thus, will keep rainfall chances on the low
side. A cold front associated with the upper low will also move
through Wednesday, pushing low and mid level moisture east, and
ending rain chances. The later half of next week is dry as surface
high pressure dominates.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 49 63 42 62 / 40 20 5 5
San Angelo 51 64 42 62 / 50 30 10 5
Junction 53 62 45 63 / 70 60 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Johnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1137 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
OVERALL NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE TAF THINKING EXCEPT THAT SEA
FOG AND FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE HOUSTON TERMINALS SOUTHWARD.
STILL SEEING THE TREND OF CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS
ACROSS ALL OF SE TX. VSBY HAS IMPROVED AT KGLS BUT SUSPECT THAT
SEA FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE SITE. MOST OF
KIAH/KHOU/KSGR/KLBX WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH IFR AND FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP CLOSER TO 09-12Z THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FORMING NEAR KCLL. WOULD LOOK FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
RAIN SHOULD DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE AND MIXING
OF DRIER AIR HELPS ERODE SOME CLOUD COVER. THAT SAID STILL
POSSIBLE TO HAVE SOME IFR/MVFR DECKS LINGER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
MIGHT NOT SEE CLOUD COVER IMPROVE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LIBERTY TO DOWNTOWN HOUSTON TO EDNA. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR GALVESTON BAY AND THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OUT TO 20 NM BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND FREEPORT.
MORE DETAILS IN THE DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW.
40
DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WAS LOCATED AT 6 PM FROM NEAR
CLEVELAND TO HOUSTON TO JUST NORTH OF VICTORIA. BOTH THE NAM12 AND
RAP13 MOVE THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HRRR AND SREF DEVELOP AREAS OF FOG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE MODELS DO DEVELOP AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF AT THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 700 MB WILL PROVIDE FOR A BIT
OF A CAP WHICH MAY KEEP THE RAIN AWAY FROM THE COASTAL AREAS
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM12 FORECASTS ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH
WILL HELP DEVELOP RAIN AREAS. THINK THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED.
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LIBERTY TO HOUSTON TO EDNA. ALSO ADDED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM FOR COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE LOCATIONS.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
RADAR TRENDS SHOW ACTIVITY MAINLY FROM C TEXAS THROUGH THE
ARKLATEX NORTH OF THE KCLL/KUTS TERMINALS. OTHER SHOWERS WERE
NOTED FROM BASICALLY S HOUSTON AND OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SFC
ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS HOUSTON THAT SEEMS TO
BE PUSHING NORTH A BIT AS IT DISSIPATES. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT SHOULD GET A GOOD PUSH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERALL TRENDS IN TAFS ARE RATHER PESSIMISTIC WITH CIGS
BECOMING IFR AND RAIN BEGINNING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...SHOULD HAVE A SLOWER TRANSITION TO MVFR AND THEN
IFR THROUGH 12Z COMPARED TO SOUTHERN TAFS. RAIN MAY BEGIN SOONER
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH AND AS A RESULT RAIN
COULD END EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS MAY HOLD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT MAY BEGIN TO LIFT AS DRIER AIR MIXES.
KIAH/KHOU/KSGR...WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND A MOIST
AIRMASS JUST SOUTH OF IT...COULD HAVE A TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR
CIGS EARLIER TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ENDING BUT WILL
KEEP VCSH IN TAFS UNTIL 02Z. EXPECT MORE MODERATE RAIN TO DEVELOP
IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS COULD THEN PERSIST
AWHILE UNTIL DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE MOISTURE. POSSIBLE THAT AN
ISO THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED
OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NOT PERSIST LONG.
KLBX/KGLS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG THE COAST HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME SEA FOG TO DEVELOP BUT IT IS PROBABLY QUITE TRANSIENT. WILL
KEEP TAFS PESSIMISTIC WITH FOG AND IFR CIGS BUT LIKELY NOT HAVE
CIGS THAT LOW THE WHOLE TAF. RADIATION FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR LBX BUT
COULD ALSO BE SOME SEA FOG THAT MOVES INLAND. EITHER WAY IFR CIGS
OR LOWER COULD GET SOCKED IN THE AREA AND THEN IMPROVE AS RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOP CLOSER TO 12Z IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE FRONT AND COULD HAVE SOME GOOD GUSTS.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 59 65 50 64 48 / 70 60 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 68 54 66 50 / 40 70 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 72 59 66 59 / 40 60 30 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1055 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.AVIATION...
MVFR HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES. KEWX RADAR SHOWED
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH A FEW HOURS AGO WITH DEWPOINT DROP NOTED
ACROSS MANY AREA METAR LOCATIONS. LATEST VWP SHOWS NICE
OVERRUNNING PATTERN WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2KFT WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THAT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CIGS
DROPPING DOWN TO IFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE LOWER VISBY DUE TO THE LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED PREVAILING -SHRA AT THE SITES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND THE HRRR SHOWING AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON
CIGS TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS STRONGER PUSH OF
NORTH WIND ENTERS THE AREA AND OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS BRING IFR
CEILINGS...AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP...TO ALL THE TAF SITES BY
12Z. OVERNIGHT WILL CARRY VCSH AND PREVAILING -SHRA BY MORNING.
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TS...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME. SURGE
OF NORTH WIND WILL COME IN THE EARLY MORNING AND INCREASE TO OVER
15KT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE
NORTH WIND GETS DEEPER DURING THE DAY...MAY GET TO SEE SOME MVFR
BUT CONFIDENCE OF THAT IS FAIRLY LOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AREA RADAR DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN ECHOES
ACROSS THE REGION. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND WE/LL ONLY
MENTION 20-50% RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR GREATEST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF I-35. THERE IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND AREAS THAT SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...WE HAVE
MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. ON SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE/LL ONLY MENTION RAIN
CHANCES OF 20-30% AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO START THE WORK WEEK AS
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER TEXAS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS
MIDWEEK AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO MOST AREAS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 56 64 51 62 48 / 60 60 20 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 55 65 50 63 46 / 60 60 20 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 65 52 63 48 / 60 50 20 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 64 50 62 46 / 70 60 20 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 65 53 64 51 / 60 50 30 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 54 63 49 62 45 / 60 60 20 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 59 65 52 64 48 / 70 60 20 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 64 51 61 48 / 60 60 20 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 66 52 64 49 / 50 50 20 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 59 66 53 64 50 / 60 60 20 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 67 54 64 51 / 60 50 20 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1119 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST...REACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK...AND CONTINUING EAST TO THE COAST ON
SATURDAY EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND WEDGE SOUTH
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE
MIDWEST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 807 PM EST FRIDAY...
UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO DELAY ONSET OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT PER LATEST INCOMING HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS AND SURFACE AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
AS OF 800 PM EST...SURFACE FRONT STILL PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL KY...AND WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION FIELDS LIFTING NE IN UPPER FLOW IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO OUR SW...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TN.
HOWEVER...LATEST RUN OF HRRR MODEL WHICH APPEARS TO BE HANDLING
CURRENT SITUATION BEST...DELAYS INTRUSION OF GROUND-BASED
PRECIPITATION INTO PORTIONS OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT...IN SOME INSTANCES NOT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT...BACKED OFF ON HIGHER PRECIPITATION THREAT UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND MAY HAVE TO BACK OFF FURTHER UNTIL
DAYBREAK SATURDAY IF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING NE INTO
EASTERN TN DISSIPATES AS IT CONTINUES NE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
DRY AIRMASS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
ALSO MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS TO REFLECT LATEST SURFACE TRENDS.
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINING WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO CREATE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. ROA AT 82 DEGREES
AND BLF AT 75 DEGREES HAVE BROKEN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST RER AND CLIMATE SECTION FOR INFO.
UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT 18Z/2PM...SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHWARD TO WESTERN TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE ALOFT DRIVING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO...THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. THIS WILL SLOW
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND TRAVEL
EAST ON SATURDAY INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE
MOISTURE...LACK OF INSTABILITY AND TIGHT GRADIENT OF THE RAIN MAKE
THE POPS FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. INITIALLY SHAPED POPS FOR AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT TOWARDS A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW AND HRRR...THEN LEANED
TOWARDS GFS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WHILE IN THE NORTH SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE HIGH CENTER
COMPLICATES THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE STEADY
OR FALLING IN THE WEST...WHILE IN THE EAST...A SLOWLY RISE MAY BE
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH SHOULD FINALLY GIVE
ENOUGH PUSH ON THE RESIDUAL FRONT TO SHOVE IT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER LATEST SOLUTIONS A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS WITH THE SREF KEEPING SHOWERS GOING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
INTO THE EVENING. THUS LAGGED PCPN EXODUS A FEW HOURS WITH POPS
LINGERING MAINLY BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST DURING SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DRYING THINGS OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ENOUGH
COOL ADVECTION WITH SOME LATE NIGHT CLEARING SPCLY NORTHWEST TO
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 30S MOUNTAINS WITH LOW/MID 40S EAST.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING WEDGED IN
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SUPPORTS
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY AND CLEAR WITH SOME LATE NIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUDS SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LEFTOVER UPPER LOW ON THE TAIL OF THE PASSING 5H TROF FROM TODAY WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD AREA OF
WEAK OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING BACK OVER THE WEDGE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BEST MOISTURE/LIFT PROGGED
CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE TRAJECTORY
AROUND LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION THAT COULD
LIMIT INLAND SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT DRY AIR MAY TEND TO LIMIT OR
SLOW DOWN NORTHWARD EXPANSE OF SHOWERS SO SLOWED DOWN CHANCE POPS
TO SW SECTIONS MONDAY...WITH LOW POPS SPREADING NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE ANOTHER CLOUDY/DAMP PERIOD WITHIN THE WEDGE THAT
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON THE CHILLY SIDE MONDAY WITH MOST IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EST FRIDAY...
REMNANT SHORTWAVE TROF RESULTING FROM THE SMALL UPPER LOW BACK ACROSS
THE PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND...WILL FINALLY LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK SUPPRESSED SURFACE
LOW/COASTAL TROF TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TAKING DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POPS MAINLY EAST
TUESDAY AND LESS TO THE WEST BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER WEDGE WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY LIGHT PCPN TUESDAY BEFORE
THE SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL DRYING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A FASTER MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL THEN AGAIN TAKE
SHAPE TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK WITH THE WEDGE GIVING WAY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHARP BUT QUICK HITTER TYPE 5H TROF/COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A QUICK RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED SO MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY
EVENING FOR A COUPLE SHOWER BANDS BEFORE MUCH DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR
SWINGS IN ON STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY BE STRONG ENOUGH BOTH ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS BUT IFFY GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF MUCH COLD AIR.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WITH VERY DRY AIR UNDER BREEZY/COOLER CONDITIONS
ON FRIDAY BUT STILL HIGHS 50S WEST TO 60S EAST GIVEN THE QUICK EXODUS
OF THE COOL AIR ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1118 PM EST FRIDAY...
GRADUAL LOWERING OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS BACK INTO MVFR RANGE EXPECTED
AT MOST TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS (KROA...KLYH...KDAN...KBCB...
KBLF...KLWB) TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA...AND AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NORTHEAST
ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
SOME RESTRICTIONS INTO IFR RANGE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT AT/NEAR
KDAN...WHERE PROXIMITY TO MOIST AIR WEDGE CLOSER TO DEPARTING
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST. ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF INTRUSIONS
INTO IFR RANGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...LAMP GUIDANCE NOT ALL
THAT AGGRESSIVE IN DRIVING CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY DOWN THAT
FAR...AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME CONSIDERING
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA (EXCLUDING SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC) WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY MIXED.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NEAR HIGHER RIDGES AND ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON NW WINDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE) THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION
RIDES NE ALONG THE SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COOL AND DRY SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ARRIVAL OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UNRESTRICTED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...AS
ONSHORE FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL
MOIST WEDGE SITUATION FOR TUESDAY INTO PERHAPS WEDNESDAY...
CHARACTERIZED BY WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND THE THREAT
FOR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH ROANOKE AND
BLUEFIELD. SEE THE WBCRERRNK FOR DETAILS. BELOW ARE THE PREVIOUS
RECORDS FOR THE DATE (11/6).
ROA 79...2005...NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH SET TODAY AT 82
LYH 78...1978
DAN 81...2003
RNK 79...1961
BLF 74...1975...NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH SET TODAY AT 75
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM/WERT
NEAR TERM...KK/WERT
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...WERT
CLIMATE...JH/WERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
502 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2015
PESKY AREA OF STRATUS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE THIS MORNING...WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS ELSEWHERE. WILL KEEP FREEZE
WARNING UP THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE STRATUS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...AND IT APPEARS ALL
BUT PORTIONS OF OTERO AND EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY HAVE NOW SEEN A
HARD FREEZE THIS SEASON. ONCE CLOUDS DISSIPATE BY MID-
MORNING...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RUN NEAR
TO JUST A FEW DEGF COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MOST LOCATIONS...AND SHADED
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER BLENDED/BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
OVERNIGHT...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. OVER THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR
VALLEYS...READINGS SEASONABLY COOL ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2015
MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD IN THE 00Z RUNS WITH THE TRACK OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK DRY AND WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
AS THE UPPER TROF CARVES OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S...AND
CONCERNS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND OR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
CONCEPTUALLY THIS WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE SE MTS/I-25
CORRIDOR ON MONDAY...THOUGH WITH THE LEE TROF PINNED UP ALONG THE
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES AND THE I-25 CORRIDOR...CONDITIONS LOOK
SPOTTY AT THIS POINT ON MONDAY. IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE POSITION
OF THIS LEE TROF. TUESDAY MAY BE THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL START COOLING...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST AS
SNOW STARTS TO IMPACT THE CONTDVD. HOWEVER INCREASING DOWNSLOPE
INTO THE LEE TROF OFTEN LEADS TO MORE LOW LEVEL DRYING THAN MODELS
PORTRAY...AND SUSPECT THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND
RATON RIDGE WOULD BE MOST AT THREAT FOR REALIZING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. AGAIN...TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND MESOSCALE
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT...BUT IT WILL BEAR
WATCHING.
MEANWHILE...THE MTS ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS STORM...AND ITS TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CO ADVERTISED
BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...MAY KEEP AMOUNTS MORE IN THE ADVISORY OR
LOWER THRESHOLD. AS THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP ACROSS EASTERN CO/WRN
KS WED MORNING...BOTH GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF POTENTIAL
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES TUES NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW...BUT AGAIN STORM SYSTEM IS FAST MOVING SUGGESTING A BRIEF 6
HOUR WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS. CURRENT STORM TRACK ALSO RESULTS
IN STRONG DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE WHICH RAPIDLY CUTS BACK
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR POINTS SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE HIGHWAY
50 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE WITH
THESE DETAILS...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL ITERATIONS TO GO BEFORE
THEN...AND THUS THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER FORECAST
CHANGES. MORNING COMMUTES ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE IMPACTED OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND PIKES PEAK REGION BY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
SLUSHY ROADWAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY FOR THE
PLAINS...THOUGH DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...SO EVEN ROAD SURFACES OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE MAY ONLY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF IMPACTS AS THE WARM TEMPERATURES OF LATE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MELTING ON ROAD SURFACES. SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN CO
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FOR MOST AREAS BY
AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TRAILING DISTURBANCE ON THURS/THURS NIGHT. THIS
LATTER ONE STILL APPEARS DRY AT THIS POINT. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2015
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS IN PLACE ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR FROM KMNH TO KRTN AS OF 10Z...WITH IFR CIGS AT KCOS
AND MVFR CIGS AT KPUB. LATEST HRRR SUGGEST SLOW CLEARING THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH MOST LOWER CIGS AND PATCHY FOG DISSIPATING 14Z-16Z.
ONCE STRATUS CLEARS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AND
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ089-093>099.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
644 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY AND
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS ON TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING 140KT UPPER JET...COLD
ADVECTION (STRATO-CUMULUS) AND A WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSING TO THE
S OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MOST MESO/GLOBAL
MODELS INCLUDING HI RES HRRR INDICATE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE
BRUSHED BY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. HAVE
GONE WITH CONSENSUS AND ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS AS SOME AREAS COULD
MEASURE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS THE REAL POST-FRONTAL COOLER AIR
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY RAIN WILL END THIS EVENING WITH UPPER TROUGH/JET SWINGING
THROUGH AND CLEARING SKIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH
WINDS REMAINING HIGH ENOUGH AT MOST LOCATIONS TO PRECLUDE OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND
TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE (MID TO UPPER 40S IN NYC).
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL LEVELS...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT
AND TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS FAR OUTLYING AREAS IF PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELENTS. THINK EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS...SO HAVE INCLUDED IN THE HWO.
A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL EVENTUALLY GET
PICKED UP IN DEEPENING SW FLOW AND APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY/TUE
NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS. BEFORE THEN...BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS MON AND TUE...WITH HIGH TEMPS MODERATING INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.
THEREAFTER...SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF A VIGOROUS WESTERN TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THEN GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK. SOME OF
THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AMOUNT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
WESTERN US TROUGH AND THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE SIMILAR TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. IN TERMS OF LOCAL SENSIBLE WEATHER
THOUGH...PROBABILITY IS INCREASING OF SEEING A PERIOD OF WETTING
RAINS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THU INTO THU NIGHT...BUT TIMING WILL
HAVE TO BE REFINED AS THE THE EVENT NEARS. OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS OF AROUND 5 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED WED
THROUGH FRI WITH EAST COAST RIDING AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NW WINDS THIS MORNING...WITH A SPEED AROUND 10KT THROUGHOUT BY
MID MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY WILL VARY WITHIN +/- 20-30 DEGREES ON
EITHER SIDE OF 310 TRUE. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE PROBABLE
MID FROM MID-EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR CITY AND
COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 AND MAYBE EVEN 30 KT
POSSIBLE THEN AS WELL.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT PROBABLE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
BUOY 44025 HAS FALLEN BELOW 5 FT...THEREFORE WILL ALLOW THE SCA
FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MORICHES INLET TO EXPIRE AT 6AM. 44017
REMAINS AROUND 6 FT SO HAVE MAINTAINED ANZ350 THROUGH 15Z SINCE
THE HIGH SEAS ARE DUE TO A SWELL COMPONENT...WHICH ISN`T ALWAYS
DOMINANT. SINCE WE COULD LOSE THE HIGHER SEAS RATHER QUICKLY ONCE
THE SWELL COMPONENT ABATES HAVE NOT EXTENDED THE ADVISORY YET.
DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO THOUGH. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
RELATIVELY RELAXED OVER THE REGION...SO WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
10 KT OR LESS TODAY...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY INCREASING TO UP TO 15
KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH 25-
30 KT 950 HPA WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL. SO EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30KT ON ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY W LONG ISLAND SOUND. AS A RESULT ISSUED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/EASTERN
SOUND/EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 23Z TONIGHT-17Z SUNDAY. HAVE
ALSO ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS AND NY HARBOR. FOR NOW...ONLY APPEARS WILL BE AT MOST A 6 HR
WINDOW FOR SCA GUSTS ON THE W HARBOR...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE
MARGINAL. SO WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE HERE...HAVE NOT GONE WITH AN
SCA FOR THE W SOUND FOR NOW...LATER SHIFTS COULD ADJUST THIS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 950 HPA WINDS SHOULD DECREASE ENOUGH TO
BRING ALL WATERS TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY LAX OVER THE AREA FROM
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY THAT WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS OVER ALL WATERS
IN THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ338-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24
NEAR TERM...24
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...24/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1043 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON. BKN CU ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI IN ADVANCE OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BELOW 10K FEET WITH TEMPS GETTING AROUND 50 DEGREES.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CARRY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND 12Z NAM CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE 15Z TEMPS...RAISED HIGH TEMPS ONE
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 523 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
INCREASING CIG HEIGHTS AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN YIELDS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF
SCATTERING/CLEARING THIS MORNING. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION AND
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SUPPORTS A REDEVELOPMENT OF
BKN HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. MODEL DATA SUPPORTS RELATIVELY HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS WHICH
WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPING GUSTY WEST WINDS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS. EXITING
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS AND NOCTURNAL EFFECTS WILL THEN SUPPORT CLEARING
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOME VARIABLE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT AFTER 17Z. LOW IN BETWEEN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 324 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS ODDLY HELD ON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS A VERY STRONG +160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET HAS
IMPEDED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE FOOTPRINT OF THE RIDGING HAS
BEEN SHRINKING STEADILY IN RESPONSE TO METHODICAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN ALMOST DUE WESTERLY FLOW. BLOCKED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN CWA AS OF 06Z. A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE OF THIS CVA HAS BEEN A BREAKING OFF OF SOME
LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WITH THE -DIV CENTER NOW
WORKING EASTWARD ON THE PREFERRED I-94 TRAJECTORY. ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL THETA E POOLED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR OF SUBTLE INCREASED
CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS. WITH IR IMAGERY SHOWING REGENERATION OF LAKE
CLOUD ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINES...DECIDED THERE
WAS ENOUGH IN FAVOR OF ADDING SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST BETWEEN
06-12Z.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET CORE OVERLYING THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...NE US...AND CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PULL EASTWARD TODAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEART OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME
POSITIONED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 18-00Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECASTED TO FALL FROM ROUGHLY -1C AND -3C THIS MORNING TO -3
AND -5 C BY THIS EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE STEADY CAA REGIME WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT OVER LAKE HURON. THERE IS A VERY FAVORABLE
SMALL SCALE MIDLEVEL THETA E RIDGE STRUCTURE THAT IS FORECASTED TO
ORGANIZE OVER SEMICHIGAN AT 21Z WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE. IT
REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO GO MUCH MORE THAN A CHANCE POP AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS A DRY TRAJECTORY FOR THE AREA...BUT EXPECTING
ENOUGH RADAR RETURNS TO WARRANT THE CHANCE/SCATTERED MENTION. WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...SURFACE WET BULB VALUES WILL BE IN
THE BALLPARK TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW PELLET TYPE HYDROMETEORS. AT THIS
STAGE WILL HONOR THE BULK PARAMETERS...OF WARMISH +8C SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND FREEZING HEIGHTS AT 3000 FT TO KEEP THE FORECAST
AS RAIN. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE HERE.
THE ONSLAUGHT OF DRY AIR ADVECTION AT THE MIDLEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH IN
ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING PER THE RAP AND NAM. SIDED WITH
THIS OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION BEFORE FILLING CLOUDS BACK IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE AND DEEP RIDGING
WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL YIELD COLD TEMPERATURES. DID NOT STRAY OFF OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE TUCKED BENEATH WEAKLY CONFLUENT WEST-NORTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN A DRY AND STABLE PROFILE ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THE FULL SUNSHINE...LIMITED MODERATION OF THE EXISTING AIR MASS WILL
LEAVE HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 40S. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SLIP TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WITHIN A VERY DRY
AMBIENT PROFILE WILL FAVOR FULL SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EMERGING LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INTRODUCE A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTIVE COMPONENT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL
INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT AN UPWARD TREND TO
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEFT BEHIND IN THE
WAKE OF TODAY/S MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. COMPACT
CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL ASCENT TIED TO THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE
INTO AT LEAST A PERIOD OF INCREASING MID CLOUD /MAINLY SOUTH/ DURING
THIS TIME. LITTLE EVIDENCE WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST
ANYTHING BEHIND A VERY LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE QUALITY OR ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS WAVE. MINOR POPS CONFINED GENERALLY
SOUTH OF AN ANN ARBOR TO DETROIT LINE REMAIN APPROPRIATE. TRANSIENT
CLOUD DECK WOULD ALLOW A HIGHER DEGREE OF INSOLATION TO EMERGE BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN DURING THIS
TIME...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. RENEWED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE INCREASING
INSOLATION POTENTIAL WILL SUPPORT AN INCREMENTAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENT
IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 6 TO 8 C
BY 00Z TUE EVENING. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
THE AFORMENTIONED INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC MID LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY. EXTENSIVE WING OF
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT TUCKED BENEATH STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK/WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ANCHOR AN
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
MODEL OUTPUT STILL CARRYING A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY OWING TO
BOTH DIFFERENCES IN BOTH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE AND POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN WAVE...LEAVING DIFFERENCES IN BOTH
TIMING ANS STRENGTH. WITH THAT SAID...OVERALL PATTERN POINTS TOWARD
AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CENTERED ON LATE WEDNESDAY/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ABSENT OF A GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE A
MORE SIZABLE WARMUP WITH DAYTIME READINGS BALLPARK 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL /LOW-MID 60S/.
MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW GENERALLY WITHIN THE 15 KNOT RANGE WILL
PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR FUNNELS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP
BY MONDAY WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW OF THIS SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......RBP
AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
523 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.AVIATION...
INCREASING CIG HEIGHTS AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN YIELDS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF
SCATTERING/CLEARING THIS MORNING. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION AND
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SUPPORTS A REDEVELOPMENT OF
BKN HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. MODEL DATA SUPPORTS RELATIVELY HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS WHICH
WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPING GUSTY WEST WINDS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS. EXITING
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS AND NOCTURNAL EFFECTS WILL THEN SUPPORT CLEARING
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOME VARIABLE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT AFTER 17Z. LOW IN BETWEEN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 324 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS ODDLY HELD ON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS A VERY STRONG +160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET HAS
IMPEDED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE FOOTPRINT OF THE RIDGING HAS
BEEN SHRINKING STEADILY IN RESPONSE TO METHODICAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN ALMOST DUE WESTERLY FLOW. BLOCKED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN CWA AS OF 06Z. A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE OF THIS CVA HAS BEEN A BREAKING OFF OF SOME
LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WITH THE -DIV CENTER NOW
WORKING EASTWARD ON THE PREFERRED I-94 TRAJECTORY. ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL THETA E POOLED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR OF SUBTLE INCREASED
CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS. WITH IR IMAGERY SHOWING REGENERATION OF LAKE
CLOUD ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINES...DECIDED THERE
WAS ENOUGH IN FAVOR OF ADDING SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST BETWEEN
06-12Z.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET CORE OVERLYING THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...NE US...AND CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PULL EASTWARD TODAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEART OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME
POSITIONED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 18-00Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECASTED TO FALL FROM ROUGHLY -1C AND -3C THIS MORNING TO -3
AND -5 C BY THIS EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE STEADY CAA REGIME WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT OVER LAKE HURON. THERE IS A VERY FAVORABLE
SMALL SCALE MIDLEVEL THETA E RIDGE STRUCTURE THAT IS FORECASTED TO
ORGANIZE OVER SEMICHIGAN AT 21Z WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE. IT
REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO GO MUCH MORE THAN A CHANCE POP AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS A DRY TRAJECTORY FOR THE AREA...BUT EXPECTING
ENOUGH RADAR RETURNS TO WARRANT THE CHANCE/SCATTERED MENTION. WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...SURFACE WET BULB VALUES WILL BE IN
THE BALLPARK TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW PELLET TYPE HYDROMETEORS. AT THIS
STAGE WILL HONOR THE BULK PARAMETERS...OF WARMISH +8C SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND FREEZING HEIGHTS AT 3000 FT TO KEEP THE FORECAST
AS RAIN. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE HERE.
THE ONSLAUGHT OF DRY AIR ADVECTION AT THE MIDLEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH IN
ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING PER THE RAP AND NAM. SIDED WITH
THIS OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION BEFORE FILLING CLOUDS BACK IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE AND DEEP RIDGING
WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL YIELD COLD TEMPERATURES. DID NOT STRAY OFF OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE TUCKED BENEATH WEAKLY CONFLUENT WEST-NORTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN A DRY AND STABLE PROFILE ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THE FULL SUNSHINE...LIMITED MODERATION OF THE EXISTING AIR MASS WILL
LEAVE HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 40S. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SLIP TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WITHIN A VERY DRY
AMBIENT PROFILE WILL FAVOR FULL SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EMERGING LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INTRODUCE A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTIVE COMPONENT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL
INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT AN UPWARD TREND TO
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEFT BEHIND IN THE
WAKE OF TODAY/S MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. COMPACT
CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL ASCENT TIED TO THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE
INTO AT LEAST A PERIOD OF INCREASING MID CLOUD /MAINLY SOUTH/ DURING
THIS TIME. LITTLE EVIDENCE WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST
ANYTHING BEHIND A VERY LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE QUALITY OR ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS WAVE. MINOR POPS CONFINED GENERALLY
SOUTH OF AN ANN ARBOR TO DETROIT LINE REMAIN APPROPRIATE. TRANSIENT
CLOUD DECK WOULD ALLOW A HIGHER DEGREE OF INSOLATION TO EMERGE BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN DURING THIS
TIME...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. RENEWED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE INCREASING
INSOLATION POTENTIAL WILL SUPPORT AN INCREMENTAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENT
IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 6 TO 8 C
BY 00Z TUE EVENING. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
THE AFORMENTIONED INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC MID LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY. EXTENSIVE WING OF
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT TUCKED BENEATH STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK/WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ANCHOR AN
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
MODEL OUTPUT STILL CARRYING A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY OWING TO
BOTH DIFFERENCES IN BOTH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE AND POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN WAVE...LEAVING DIFFERENCES IN BOTH
TIMING ANS STRENGTH. WITH THAT SAID...OVERALL PATTERN POINTS TOWARD
AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CENTERED ON LATE WEDNESDAY/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ABSENT OF A GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE A
MORE SIZABLE WARMUP WITH DAYTIME READINGS BALLPARK 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL /LOW-MID 60S/.
MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW GENERALLY WITHIN THE 15 KNOT RANGE WILL
PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR FUNNELS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP
BY MONDAY WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW OF THIS SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
940 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK SYSTEM
PASSES ON TUESDAY WITH A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE... ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS A BIT BLENDING
IN LATEST HRRR AS LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE EXITING EAST. ALSO PUT IN SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL A
POSSIBILITY THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS IN AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN
LATE TONIGHT...FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BEST
RADIATION ON THE WESTERN FLANK. GFS MOS SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS
BEST...SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO IT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST BY MONDAY. AS A RESULT...
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY...ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY...
AND THEN PUSH EAST MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES...
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES LATE MONDAY...BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST PORTIONS OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES HAVE A DECENT
CHANCE OF GETTING MEASURABLE RAIN...SO HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ERODES AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTH. GFS
AND EURO HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON MOVING A COLORADO LOW THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DRAPE
A FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCE FOR
POPS THOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THIS FRONT PRECIPITATION WISE HAS
BEEN BROADLY WASHED OUT FROM RUN TO RUN. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SWLY JET
FAVORS BROAD SCALE DYNAMICS WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS OVER A BROAD AREA WHICH MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
THE TIME GETS CLOSER...SO HAVE INCREASED WIND FORECAST ACCORDINGLY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOME RESTRICTIONS IN IFR/MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A FEW MVFR SHOWERS AS WELL.
EXPECT THE CLOUD DECK TO RISE THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CUMULUS
FORMING. THE CUMULUS WILL GRADUALLY RISING TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS RISING THIS MORNING
COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
SOME IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN COOLER AIR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
529 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
NAM AND RAP ARE SHOWING MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND CURRENT BATCH
EXITING SOUTHWEST MN. DO NOT SEE MORE THAN PATCHY MID LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM RIGHT NOW AND GFS LOOKS PRETTY TAME. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER PRETTY LOW AND ADJUST FOR AREA NEXT FEW HOURS IF
NEEDED...BUT RIGHT NOW FEEL CLOUDS WILL STAY MINIMAL. IN ANY EVENT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL TAKE FULL CONTROL BY LATE MORNING AND WE
WILL HAVE OUR SUNNY DAY. AT THAT TIME EVEN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
NIL SO SEE LITTLE RESTRICTION TO HEATING BY THE LOWERING MIDDAY SUN
ANGLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH 50 NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS PERHAPS AS
WARM AS THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. A MODEST BREEZE FROM
THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHWEST...THEN TO WEST BY THE END
OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD STAY PRETTY CLEAR DESPITE THE DECENTLY
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...AS MODELS SHOW IT STAYING PRETTY DRY AT
ALL LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL EARLY THEN LIKELY HOLD PRETTY
STEADY...MAYBE EVEN GO UP A BIT AT SOME PLACES DURING THE NIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY INCREASE AFTER A SLIGHT EARLY EVENING DROP. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
STILL LOOKS LIKE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIODS. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS QUITE
STRONG AND THIS HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. EVEN USING
SOME OF THE MORE DRIER DEW POINT VALUES AS SHOWN BY MOS...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE TOO MOIST FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THIS IS LIKELY
BECAUSE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACTUALLY RETURNS TODAY...AND MANY TIMES
THE SECOND DAY OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN DEW POINT VALUES
WHICH ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA. THAT SAID...THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE EITHER HIGH OR VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING DAYTIME HIGHS OVER
SUPERBLEND VALUES BY A SOLID CATEGORY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GIVEN
THE MIXED DEPTH. IN ADDITION...SUPERBLEND LOWS ARE LIKELY TOO COOL
CONSIDERING THE SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS AT NIGHT...AND CONTINUED TO
USE A LOT OF RAW MODEL VALUES INSTEAD OF MOS OR SUPERBLEND VALUES.
FURTHER OUT...INTERESTINGLY THE GFS IS NOW BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE MID WEEK UPPER LOW IN HOW IT EJECTS
THE CLOSED LOW NORTHEASTWARD. THE GEM GLOBAL...ALTHOUGH STILL
CUTTING THIS AREA OFF WITH A NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO CHANGE TO A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION OVERALL. AT
THIS TIME...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TRACK THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS
FURTHER NORTH THAN EITHER THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL. THEREFORE IT IS A
WARMER AND WETTER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD GIVE PRIMARILY A CHILLY
RAINFALL. THE GFS...BEING FURTHER SOUTH...WOULD BE MORE OF A RAIN TO
MIXED PRECIP EVENT AFFECTING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AT ANY RATE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT THIS
POINT IF THE GFS CONTINUES TO PLAY CATCH UP WITH THE ECMWF AS THE
DAYS PROGRESS...THUS THE INCREASE IN MID WEEK POPS AT THIS TIME AND
NOT GOING REAL COLD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
VFR THROUGH 08/12Z WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH MAY DEVELOP AFTER 08/09Z NORTHEAST OF FSD IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
521 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY MID-MORNING /12-15
KTS/...BEFORE DECLINING AROUND SUNSET. SKC WILL BECOME VFR SCT
DECKS AT TIMES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
SHORT TERM...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED UA TROUGH STRETCHED FROM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SW TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...IS
AIDING IN SENDING DOWN A COLD FRONT /AND THUS A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR/ NOTED MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS.
MODELS HINT AT THE FROPA CLEARING THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THUS SHIFTING SRLY SFC WINDS AROUND TO THE NE. BEFORE THIS
HAPPENS...IT IS NOTEWORTHY TO MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE LAST NIGHT...WERE PROPAGATING NE WITH TIME
PER 07Z RADAR ANALYSIS. THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY IS COURTESY OF AN
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKS TO THE UPSLOPE SFC REGIME AND A
BIT OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. MODELS SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS ACTIVITY
SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE FA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH THE IMPINGEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS FALLING TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
LATER ON THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES. THE NAM
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR EXHIBITS THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
FOG NEAR SUNRISE ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES. THIS COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE
GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S THERE/ BUT
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTN...THE 1030 MB SFC RIDGE DRIVING
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE A BIT OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY E-NE WIND SPEEDS /10-20 KTS/ BEFORE
RELAXING AOA SUNSET. IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE A CRISP FALL DAY
WITH THE USHERING IN OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS...AS TEMPS WILL ONLY
WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. IT IS STARTING TO SOUND LIKE AN OLD
HAT...BUT CHILLY TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR TONIGHT GIVEN THE SAME
CONDITIONS THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT MODEL
SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT AN INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN AND SWRN ZONES...WITH
THE NAM SHOWING RATHER LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NUDGING UP AGAINST THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS
POSSIBILITY...SO WILL ELECT TO KEEP WX GRIDS NIL ATTM...BUT WILL
BUMP POPS UP TO 9-10 PERCENT.
LONG TERM...
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
SERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN
COLORADO AND NRN NEW MEXICO LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL BE FORMING OVER THE WRN CONUS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE FCST PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THEN
NEWD TO THE WRN SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING...
DEEPENING RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT DOES SO. THIS LOW WILL PUSH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT QUICKLY EWD THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAIRLY RICH LOW LEVEL AIR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT SUGGESTIONS ARE THAT CAP WILL HOLD THIS FAR WEST
WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FCST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST ATTM...ALTHOUGH
MODEL BLEND REMAINS NEAR THE 15 PCT THRESHOLD ACROSS THE SERN
ZONES. THE MAIN AFFECT FROM THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WILL BE
GUSTY...AND POSSIBLY STRONG...WINDS. MAGNITUDE OF PROGGED HEIGHT
GRADIENT SUGGESTS WIND WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET IF THIS
SYSTEM IS ABLE TO SLOW DOWN BY SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. AT ITS CURRENT
PROJECTED PACE WEST TO NW WINDS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OR A
TOUCH BELOW LOOK QUITE POSSIBLE. WILL BUMP WIND SPEEDS ABOUT 5 KTS
ABOVE MODEL BLEND INITIALIZATION. FINALLY...RATHER BENIGN END TO
THE WEEK CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WITH WARM LOW
LEVEL AIR LOCKED OVER NRN MEXICO MOS TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
LOOK REASONABLE ATTM.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
452 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW THEN LIFTS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WV IMAGERY AND 07/19Z RAP MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS BEING
PUSHED EWD AS A RESULT OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
NRN HIGH PLAINS. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOIST FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND IN A
ZONE OF SW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND A RIDGE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WRN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A THE LEADING
EDGE OF A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AND NOW
EXTENDS WSW-ENE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. 1030MB
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT AND MOIST FRONTAL BAND S OF
THE LOCAL AREA BY LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CAA WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NW. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WRN NC NE THROUGH THE DELMARVA...WITH
THE EARLIER BATCH OF RAIN (AND EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER NE NC) NOW
OFFSHORE. HIGH-RES DATA SUGGESTS SOME RAIN WILL RE-DEVELOP ACROSS SE
VA/NE NC THROUGH THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH THE EVENING. CLOUDY
EARLY...WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED ACROSS THE N LATE. FORECAST LOWS
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NW...TO THE LOW 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS WITH REGARD TO 1030+ MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ESE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
SUNDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING
OFFSHORE MONDAY. N/NE FLOW WILL BE STRONG SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE
COAST WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...15-20 MPH FARTHER INLAND. THE WIND
DIMINISHES SUNDAY AFTN AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN AND THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS. THE FLOW IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING SO IN SPITE
OF FULL SUN MOST AREAS IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR HIGHS ON
SUNDAY...FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S N...TO NEAR 60 OVER THE SOUTH. GIVEN
THE STRONG HIGH WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE SUN NIGHT OVER THE
PIEDMONT WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S FROM THE PIEDMONT TO
THE MD ERN SHORE. FARTHER SE...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE QUICKER ALLOWING FOR SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 40S. CLOUDS INCREASE/THICKEN MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVES NE. GIVEN THE QUICKER 12Z
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CHC POPS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS MONDAY (PRIMARILY
DURING THE AFTN). LIMITED MIXING SO HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL-
SIDE OF NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 50S NW...TO MID 60S SE.
12Z/07 MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS A
WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION. THEREFORE POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY FARTHER INLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN 0.5". CLOUDY WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE
UPPER 40S NW...TO AROUND 60 SE...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY FROM THE UPPER
50S/AROUND 60 NW...TO THE UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LO PRES ALNG OR JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST TUE EVENG...WILL MOVE
OUT TO SEA TUE NGT INTO WED MORNG. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION
DURING WED...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST WED NGT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FM THE W. THAT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA ON
THU...THEN PUSHES OUT TO SEA THU NGT. COOL HI PRES THEN BLDS
TWD/INTO THE REGION FOR FRI THRU SAT. SO...LINGERING SML OR SLGT
CHC OF RAIN EARLY TUE NGT...THEN DRY WX WED INTO WED NGT. SLGT CHC
TO CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU INTO THU EVENG. DRY WX AGAIN FRI THRU
SAT. LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S WED MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID
50S THU MORNG...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S FRI MORNG...AND IN THE
UPR 30S TO UPR 40S SAT MORNG. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO ARND 70 WED
AND THU...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR
60S SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF SBY AND RIC AT 18Z
MARKED BY A WELL DEFINED TEMPERATURE DROP AS WELL AS A DEFINITE
SHIFT IN THE WIND. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE HAMPTON ROADS WERE A
RESULT OF LOCAL BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IFR HAS NOT BEE PERSISTENT AND LIMITED ITS USE IN THE TAFS TO
SRN PORTIONS MAINLY IN HEAVIER PCPN.
THE FRONT REACHES ECG AROUND 01Z. RAIN ENDS SHORTLY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE SKY CLEARING BY LATE EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. GUSTY N WINDS DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST TNGT AND
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT ORF DUE TO A SURGE DOWN THE BAY.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN AND LOWER AVIATION CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING OFF THE CST AND SE OF NE NC CSTL WTRS LATE
THIS AFTN. N WINDS WERE STARTING TO PICK UP ACRS THE WTRS...AND
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENG/OVRNGT...AS HI PRES BLDNG EWRD FM THE OH
VALLEY USHERS LO LEVEL CAA INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL THE WTRS TNGT THRU SUN AFTN. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS...EVEN IN THE BAY. WAVES WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5 FT...AND SEAS 4
TO 6 FT N...TO 6 TO 8 FT S. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE WTRS ON SUN...
LOCATING OVER THE NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN AND SUN NGT. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE WTRS LATE SUN. SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...FINALLY DROPPING BELOW 5
FT SUN EVENG. FLOW THEN BECOMES ONSHORE SUN NGT AOB 15 KT. THE
HI SLIDES OFFSHR ON MON. LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG A CSTL TROF LATE
MON INTO TUE MORNG...THEN LIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST
TUE INTO TUE NGT. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA...SEAS
COULD BLD TO 5 FT OR HIGHER TUE INTO WED MORNG. HI PRES BLDS BACK
OVER THE REGION DURING WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THU.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW THEN LIFTS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WV IMAGERY AND 07/19Z RAP MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS BEING
PUSHED EWD AS A RESULT OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
NRN HIGH PLAINS. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOIST FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND IN A
ZONE OF SW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND A RIDGE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WRN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A THE LEADING
EDGE OF A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AND NOW
EXTENDS WSW-ENE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. 1030MB
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT AND MOIST FRONTAL BAND S OF
THE LOCAL AREA BY LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CAA WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NW. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WRN NC NE THROUGH THE DELMARVA...WITH
THE EARLIER BATCH OF RAIN (AND EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER NE NC) NOW
OFFSHORE. HIGH-RES DATA SUGGESTS SOME RAIN WILL RE-DEVELOP ACROSS SE
VA/NE NC THROUGH THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH THE EVENING. CLOUDY
EARLY...WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED ACROSS THE N LATE. FORECAST LOWS
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NW...TO THE LOW 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS WITH REGARD TO 1030+ MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ESE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
SUNDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING
OFFSHORE MONDAY. N/NE FLOW WILL BE STRONG SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE
COAST WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...15-20 MPH FARTHER INLAND. THE WIND
DIMINISHES SUNDAY AFTN AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN AND THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS. THE FLOW IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING SO IN SPITE
OF FULL SUN MOST AREAS IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR HIGHS ON
SUNDAY...FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S N...TO NEAR 60 OVER THE SOUTH. GIVEN
THE STRONG HIGH WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE SUN NIGHT OVER THE
PIEDMONT WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S FROM THE PIEDMONT TO
THE MD ERN SHORE. FARTHER SE...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE QUICKER ALLOWING FOR SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 40S. CLOUDS INCREASE/THICKEN MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVES NE. GIVEN THE QUICKER 12Z
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CHC POPS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS MONDAY (PRIMARILY
DURING THE AFTN). LIMITED MIXING SO HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL-
SIDE OF NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 50S NW...TO MID 60S SE.
12Z/07 MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS A
WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION. THEREFORE POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY FARTHER INLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN 0.5". CLOUDY WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE
UPPER 40S NW...TO AROUND 60 SE...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY FROM THE UPPER
50S/AROUND 60 NW...TO THE UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY SIMILAR TRENDS FROM THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM...INDICATING THAT SFC LOW ALONG THE SE COAST MOVES
BACK NNE MON NIGHT...AND BRINGS ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
CHC POPS LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE. DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH
AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE NC COAST TUE TO
HAVE A PERIOD OF LOW-END LIKELY POPS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC AND
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. HOWEVER...AS
NOTED BEFORE...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL SPLIT IN MSTR FIELDS AS
MOST OF THE MSTR ASSCTD WITH THE CSTL LOW EITHER HUGS THE COAST OR
STAYS OFFSHORE. MSTR ASSCTD WITH THE UPR LVL LOW TRACKING NE ALONG
THE MTS MAY LEAVE MOST OF AKQ FA IN THE RGN WITH NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF QPF EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR SE. THIS SETUP HAS THE PTNTL
FOR AN INSITU- WEDGE EVENT...BUT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH PCPN
ACTUALLY FALLS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOWS MON NITE 45-50 NWRN HALF
OF FA...50-60 SERN HALF. TMPS TUE MAINLY IN THE 60S...BUT CUD BE
LWR ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT IF WDSPRD PCPN OCCURS. KEPT LOW CHC
POPS TUE NITE DUE TO LINGERING TROFINESS AND LL MSTR. LOWS U40S-
U50S.
HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTMS WED THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THURS. MILD AS H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS GOING ABV NRML
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS BOTH DAYS 65-70. LOWS IN THE 50S.
NEXT CDFRNT CROSSES THE FA LATE THU NIGHT / FRI MORNING. WON`T GET
TO FANCY THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL INDCT LOW CHC POPS WITH FROPA. HIGHS
60-65.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF SBY AND RIC AT 18Z
MARKED BY A WELL DEFINED TEMPERATURE DROP AS WELL AS A DEFINITE
SHIFT IN THE WIND. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE HAMPTON ROADS WERE A
RESULT OF LOCAL BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IFR HAS NOT BEE PERSISTENT AND LIMITED ITS USE IN THE TAFS TO
SRN PORTIONS MAINLY IN HEAVIER PCPN.
THE FRONT REACHES ECG AROUND 01Z. RAIN ENDS SHORTLY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE SKY CLEARING BY LATE EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. GUSTY N WINDS DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST TNGT AND
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT ORF DUE TO A SURGE DOWN THE BAY.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN AND LOWER AVIATION CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT IS A SW
WIND OF 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT AND
WAVES ~2 FT. THE FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NW TO N BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS AND LOW
LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN STRONG SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS...EVEN IN THE BAY. WAVES BUILD TO 3 TO
5 FT AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT NORTH TO 6 TO 8 FT SOUTH. FLOW IS NOT
PARTICULARLY ANOMALOUS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE GALE CONDITIONS ATTM.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SUN...LOCATING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
WATERS LATE SUN. SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE...FINALLY DROPPING BELOW 5 FT SUNDAY EVENING. FLOW THEN
BECOMES ONSHORE SUN NIGHT AOB 15 KT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MON.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH TUES...LIFTING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST INTO TUES NIGHT. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...SEAS COULD BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION LATE WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
429 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM NE CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
SHRTWV THAT WAS SLIDING THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR HELPED SUPPORT A
MESO-LOW LIKE BAND OF PCPN AND WINDS THROUGH SRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW
LEVEL TEMPS WERE WARM ENOUGH SO THAT MAINLY RAIN WAS OBSERVED INTO
P53. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN FARTHER INLAND
SIMILR TO WHAT OCCURRED OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING WHERE A COATING
OF SNOW FELL.
TONIGHT INTO SUN...EXPECT SCT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO CONTINUE FOR NW
FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE ERN CWA WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND
-6C/-15C AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING. 300-310 WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THE PCPN MAINLY FROM P53 EASTWARD. WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO WRLY WITH QUICKLY FALLING
INVERSION HEIGHTS BY 06Z WHICH SHOULD END THE PCPN. MAINLY RAIN
IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SHORE WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INLAND. ANY
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. INLAND...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN WITH FCST MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1K FT...SUNSHINE AND WAA WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO LOWER 50S SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MID TO LATE WEEK...
UPPER LEVELS START OUT ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT RIDGE FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. CUTOFF SHORTWAVE DRIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY...BUT SYSTEM IS SO STARVED FOR
MOISTURE PROBABLY WILL NOT EVEN SEE ANY HIGH CLOUDS. MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
50S WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SW-S. MIXING HEIGHTS FORECAST TO BE 2-3KFT
BUT IF THEY END UP HIGHER COULD SEE MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY REACH NEAR
60 DEGREES AT DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF WEST AND CNTRL NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT COULD DIP NEAR FREEZING
AT SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE H8-H7 AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
AHEAD OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH CROSSING WESTERN CONUS AND SFC TROUGH FM
EASTERN CO INTO NORTHERN MN. STRONGEST SFC LOW IN THE TROUGH WITH
MSLP OF 995-1000MB WILL BE OVER CO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. POPS ONLY LOW
CHANCE TUE NIGHT THOUGH AS LIFT IS WEAK AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE
LACKING. MAY EVEN BE SITUATION WHERE DZ OCCURS INSTEAD OF RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS.
ATTN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ON DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER KS/NEB DOWN TO MSLP OF 990-995MB. SETUP AT LEAST FOR MOST OF
DAY APPEARS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT/LARGER SCALE FORCING. SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATER TUE AFTN. SE WINDS MAY
RESULT IN BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY OVER CNTRL CWA DUE TO
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFT. DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SOME
RAIN IN ADDITION TO SE WINDS OFF LK MICHIGAN...TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL STAY NEAR 50 DEGREES. THIS IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER.
WESTERN TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THIS DEEP SYSTEM ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
DEEPENING SFC LOW /FALLING BLO 990MB ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT
MOVES FROM IA TO WI/ LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
DEEP LIFT FM THE STRONG UPPER LOW /12 HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 300M IN 12
HRS/ AND SHARP RIBBON OF 1000-850MB THETA-E/PWATS OVER 1 INCH SHOULD
SUPPORT SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TO NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRYING ALOFT MOVING IN WITH UPPER SYSTEM
OVERNIGHT LEADS TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE
TSRA. DRY SLOT EVENTUALLY SHOULD DIMINISH RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. E-SE WINDS WILL GET GUSTY AS THE DEEPENING SFC LOW
MOVES CLOSER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND OVER EASTERN CWA.
SINCE CORE OF UPPER LOW AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT MOVES ACROSS ON
THURSDAY...KEPT MENTION OF TSRA IN THE MORNING.
GRANTED A LOT CAN CHANGE IN THE MODELS BTWN NOW AND LATER THIS WEEK
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CAUSE THIS LOW IS STILL
OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...BUT ATTM BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF RUNS
SINCE LAST EVENING INDICATE SFC LOW POSSIBLY BLO 980MB CROSSES CNTRL
UPR MICHIGAN THURSDAY. WITH SUCH STRONG LOW OVERHEAD...ATTN ONCE THE
LOW MOVES BY WILL TURN TO COLD AIR ADVECITON AND PROBABLY MORE OF AN
ISSUE...VERY STRONG W-WNW WINDS. SFC LOW WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF LK
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN. THOUGH THE ECWMF IS AROUND 10 MB
WEAKER WITH MSLP CENTER COMPARED TO GFS...WIND FIELDS WITH SYSTEM ARE
SIMILAR. BOTH MODELS SHOW H925 WINDS 50 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR THU
EVENING. WINDS ARE PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE
1000-850MB LAYER SO MIXING SHOULD BE EFFICENT. DO NOT SEE WHY THERE
WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM. INCREASED WINDS OVER
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. RESULT IS A SOLID GALE OVER LK SUPERIOR...LIKELY
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR ADVY LEVEL
WINDS ALONG LK SUPERIOR SHORE FOR AREAS FAVORED BY W-WNW WINDS.
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT APPEARS TO BE REINFORCED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT COLD AIR /H85
TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY ARE AROUND -6C/ TO RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
FOR MUCH OF CWA ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WOULD BE FAVORED FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. STRONG GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS. TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN
THE 30S OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LK
MICHIGAN. TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS NEXT SATURDAY AND SFC LOW MOVES INTO
QUEBEC. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
MVFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN THIS EVENING WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN LAKES BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS.
AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY...SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS TO 25 KTS REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. E GALES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
LATE THU INTO FRI...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM NE CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
SHRTWV THAT WAS SLIDING THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR HELPED SUPPORT A
MESO-LOW LIKE BAND OF PCPN AND WINDS THROUGH SRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW
LEVEL TEMPS WERE WARM ENOUGH SO THAT MAINLY RAIN WAS OBSERVED INTO
P53. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN FARTHER INLAND
SIMILR TO WHAT OCCURRED OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING WHERE A COATING
OF SNOW FELL.
TONIGHT INTO SUN...EXPECT SCT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO CONTINUE FOR NW
FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE ERN CWA WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND
-6C/-15C AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING. 300-310 WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THE PCPN MAINLY FROM P53 EASTWARD. WITH THE SHRTWV MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO WRLY WITH QUICKLY FALLING
INVERSION HEIGHTS BY 06Z WHICH SHOULD END THE PCPN. MAINLY RAIN
IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SHORE WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INLAND. ANY
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. INLAND...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN WITH FCST MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1K FT...SUNSHINE AND WAA WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO LOWER 50S SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
SUN INTO TUE. A TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND THE WRN LAKES FROM WED INTO THU WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN LAKES. SOME SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE WEST BY LATE THU INTO FRI AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL REBOUND FROM COLD CONDITIONS TODAY
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FROM SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUN AND MON...AS THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE PUSHES SE OF THE REGION...
INCREASING SW WINDS AND WAA WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SUN AND LOWER TO MID 50S ON MON. MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL YIELD
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH DAYS.
TUE...AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST...FORCING FROM A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS
BUT A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...MODELS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF A
SFC LOW DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUE AND THEN CONTINUING
TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED INTO THU
IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX EMERGING
FROM THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS TROF. MODELS DIFFER WIDELY ON TRACK
OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z ECMWF THE QUICKEST AND
FARTHEST WEST OF MODEL SOLUTIONS BRINGING A 984 MB SFC LOW INTO WRN
UPPER MI THU MORNING WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS THE FARTHEST
EAST/SOUTH TAKING A 984 MB LOW THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MI INTO
GEORGIAN BAY BY WED NIGHT/THU. THE 00Z GFS OFFERS A DEEPER SOLUTION
WITH A COMPROMISE TRACK BRINGING THE 975 MB LOW INTO UPPER MI ALONG
A ESCANABA/MUNISING TRACK LATE WED NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE MODEL CONSENSUS POPS FOR
FCST. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE PCPN COULD MOVE IN AS EARLY AS TUE
NIGHT WITH A LEAD SHRTWV AND AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. BETTER
CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH INCREASING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTENING/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CLOSED LOW. EXPECT LINGERING
WRAPAROUND PCPN INTO THU AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFTS NE OF THE REGION.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO
-6 TO -8C LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN A WNW FLOW COULD CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX WITH OR CHANGEOVER TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NW AND FAR NE CWA FAVORED BY A WNW FLOW.
ALSO EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THU INTO FRI ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AS CAA AIDS DEEPER MIXING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
MVFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN THIS EVENING WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN LAKES BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS.
AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY...SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS TO 25 KTS REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. E GALES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
LATE THU INTO FRI...W TO NW GALES ARE EXPECTED
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
346 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS ODDLY HELD ON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS A VERY STRONG +160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET HAS
IMPEDED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE FOOTPRINT OF THE RIDGING HAS
BEEN SHRINKING STEADILY IN RESPONSE TO METHODICAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN ALMOST DUE WESTERLY FLOW. BLOCKED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN CWA AS OF 06Z. A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE OF THIS CVA HAS BEEN A BREAKING OFF OF SOME
LAKE MICHIGAN EHANCED CONVERGENCE WITH THE -DIV CENTER NOW WORKING
EASTWARD ON THE PREFERRED I-94 TRAJECTORY. EHNANCED LOW LEVEL THETA
E POOLED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR OF SUBTLE INCREASED CONVERGENCE HAS LED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. WITH
IR IMAGERY SHOWING REGENERATION OF LAKE CLOUD ACROSS THE WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINES...DECIDED THERE WAS ENOUGH IN FAVOR OF
ADDING SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST BETWEEN 06-12Z.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET CORE OVERLYING THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...NE US...AND CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PULL EASTWARD TODAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEART OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME
POSITIONED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 18-00Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECASTED TO FALL FROM ROUGHLY -1C AND -3C THIS MORNING TO -3
AND -5 C BY THIS EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATESBIN THE STEADY CAA REGIME WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT OVER LAKE HURON. THERE IS A VERY FAVORABLE
SMALL SCALE MIDLEVEL THETA E RIDGE STRUCTURE THAT IS FORECASTED TO
ORGANIZE OVER SEMICHIGAN AT 21Z WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE. IT
REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO GO MUCH MORE THAN A CHANCE POP AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS A DRY TRAJECTORY FOR THE AREA...BUT EXPECTING
ENOUGH RADAR RETURNS TO WARRANT THE CHANCE/SCATTERED MENTION. WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...SURFACE WET BULB VALUES WILL BE IN
THE BALLPARK TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW PELLET TYPE HYDROMETEORS. AT THIS
STAGE WILL HONOR THE BULK PARAMETERS...OF WARMISH +8C SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND FREEZING HEIGHTS AT 3000 FT TO KEEP THE FORECAST
AS RAIN. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE HERE.
THE ONSLAUGHT OF DRY AIR ADVECTION AT THE MIDLEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH IN
ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING PER THE RAP AND NAM. SIDED WITH
THIS OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION BEFORE FILLING CLOUDS BACK IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE AND DEEP RIDGING
WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL YIELD COLD TEMPERATURES. DID NOT STRAY OFF OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN STORE FOR MONDAY WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE AS OUR AREA LIES BETWEEN
A SPLIT FLOW. MODEST WARMING AT 925 MB AS TEMPS INCREASE FROM AROUND
0C TO 3C IN 24 HOURS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
RELATIVE TO SUNDAY.
VORTICITY THAT IS CURRENTLY STRUNG OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS WAVE PASSING
INNOCUOUSLY AND UNABLE TO SPREAD ANY RESPECTABLE MOISTURE INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE...ALLOWING MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD IN AND GENERATING SOME SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DIGGING TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AT ABOUT 42N/137W THIS AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTC NWP SEEMS TO
HAVE STABILIZED SOMEWHAT SINCE YESTERDAY/S 12Z SUITE IN DEPICTIONS
OF STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY...TRACKING
THE CYCLONE TOWARD NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRIDAY. A STRIKING
CHANGE FROM 24 HOUR AGO IS THE CONVERGENCE OF NEARLY ALL GEFS
MEMBERS DEVELOPING A STRONG CYCLONE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE CYCLONE.
ALSO STRIKING IS THE GFS DEVELOPING A VERY STRONG STORM...BOTTOMING
OUT AT 974 MB NEAR MARQUETTE MI AT 12Z THURSDAY. EVEN THE GEFS MEAN
BOTTOMS OUT AT 980 MB. THIS CONTRASTS WITH THE ECMWF...WHICH BOTTOMS
OUT AT 984 MB.
IN TERMS OF WEATHER IMPACTS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS LOTS OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO PRODUCE VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE STRONGER
GFS PANS OUT. TEMPS WILL BE MILD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
COOLING DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING MAINTAINING THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW GENERALLY OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH HIGH GUSTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR BOTH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS OUTER SAGINAW BAY
AND PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP
SUNDAY EVENING WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW OF THIS SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1227 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
DIURNAL COMPONENT WILL BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH BKN CUMULUS
FIELD AROUND 4K FEET. ALSO WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 25
KTS. THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER 00Z CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
FORECAST.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RBP
LONG TERM....DT
MARINE.......RBP
AVIATION.....RBP
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1227 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.AVIATION...
DIURNAL COMPONENT WILL BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH BKN CUMULUS
FIELD AROUND 4K FEET. ALSO WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 25
KTS. THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER 00Z CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
FORECAST.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1043 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON. BKN CU ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI IN ADVANCE OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BELOW 10K FEET WITH TEMPS GETTING AROUND 50 DEGREES.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CARRY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND 12Z NAM CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE 15Z TEMPS...RAISED HIGH TEMPS ONE
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 324 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS ODDLY HELD ON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS A VERY STRONG +160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET HAS
IMPEDED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE FOOTPRINT OF THE RIDGING HAS
BEEN SHRINKING STEADILY IN RESPONSE TO METHODICAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN ALMOST DUE WESTERLY FLOW. BLOCKED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN CWA AS OF 06Z. A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE OF THIS CVA HAS BEEN A BREAKING OFF OF SOME
LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WITH THE -DIV CENTER NOW
WORKING EASTWARD ON THE PREFERRED I-94 TRAJECTORY. ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL THETA E POOLED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR OF SUBTLE INCREASED
CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS. WITH IR IMAGERY SHOWING REGENERATION OF LAKE
CLOUD ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINES...DECIDED THERE
WAS ENOUGH IN FAVOR OF ADDING SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST BETWEEN
06-12Z.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET CORE OVERLYING THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...NE US...AND CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PULL EASTWARD TODAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEART OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME
POSITIONED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 18-00Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECASTED TO FALL FROM ROUGHLY -1C AND -3C THIS MORNING TO -3
AND -5 C BY THIS EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE STEADY CAA REGIME WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT OVER LAKE HURON. THERE IS A VERY FAVORABLE
SMALL SCALE MIDLEVEL THETA E RIDGE STRUCTURE THAT IS FORECASTED TO
ORGANIZE OVER SEMICHIGAN AT 21Z WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE. IT
REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO GO MUCH MORE THAN A CHANCE POP AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS A DRY TRAJECTORY FOR THE AREA...BUT EXPECTING
ENOUGH RADAR RETURNS TO WARRANT THE CHANCE/SCATTERED MENTION. WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...SURFACE WET BULB VALUES WILL BE IN
THE BALLPARK TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW PELLET TYPE HYDROMETEORS. AT THIS
STAGE WILL HONOR THE BULK PARAMETERS...OF WARMISH +8C SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND FREEZING HEIGHTS AT 3000 FT TO KEEP THE FORECAST
AS RAIN. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE HERE.
THE ONSLAUGHT OF DRY AIR ADVECTION AT THE MIDLEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH IN
ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING PER THE RAP AND NAM. SIDED WITH
THIS OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION BEFORE FILLING CLOUDS BACK IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE AND DEEP RIDGING
WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL YIELD COLD TEMPERATURES. DID NOT STRAY OFF OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE TUCKED BENEATH WEAKLY CONFLUENT WEST-NORTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN A DRY AND STABLE PROFILE ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THE FULL SUNSHINE...LIMITED MODERATION OF THE EXISTING AIR MASS WILL
LEAVE HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 40S. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SLIP TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WITHIN A VERY DRY
AMBIENT PROFILE WILL FAVOR FULL SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EMERGING LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INTRODUCE A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTIVE COMPONENT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL
INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT AN UPWARD TREND TO
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEFT BEHIND IN THE
WAKE OF TODAY/S MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. COMPACT
CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL ASCENT TIED TO THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE
INTO AT LEAST A PERIOD OF INCREASING MID CLOUD /MAINLY SOUTH/ DURING
THIS TIME. LITTLE EVIDENCE WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST
ANYTHING BEHIND A VERY LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE QUALITY OR ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS WAVE. MINOR POPS CONFINED GENERALLY
SOUTH OF AN ANN ARBOR TO DETROIT LINE REMAIN APPROPRIATE. TRANSIENT
CLOUD DECK WOULD ALLOW A HIGHER DEGREE OF INSOLATION TO EMERGE BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN DURING THIS
TIME...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. RENEWED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE INCREASING
INSOLATION POTENTIAL WILL SUPPORT AN INCREMENTAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENT
IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 6 TO 8 C
BY 00Z TUE EVENING. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
THE AFORMENTIONED INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC MID LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY. EXTENSIVE WING OF
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT TUCKED BENEATH STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK/WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ANCHOR AN
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
MODEL OUTPUT STILL CARRYING A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY OWING TO
BOTH DIFFERENCES IN BOTH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE AND POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN WAVE...LEAVING DIFFERENCES IN BOTH
TIMING ANS STRENGTH. WITH THAT SAID...OVERALL PATTERN POINTS TOWARD
AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CENTERED ON LATE WEDNESDAY/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ABSENT OF A GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE A
MORE SIZABLE WARMUP WITH DAYTIME READINGS BALLPARK 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL /LOW-MID 60S/.
MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW GENERALLY WITHIN THE 15 KNOT RANGE WILL
PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR FUNNELS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP
BY MONDAY WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW OF THIS SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....RBP
UPDATE.......RBP
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
407 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE FRONT AND BRING CHILLY AND WET CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME MID WEEK DRYING IS
EXPECTED BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2110 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED PER RADAR TRENDS...WITH AN
INCREASE ALONG THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...RESULTING IN MINOR DECREASES...MAINLY IN THE
EAST.
AS OF 215 PM EST SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE NC HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME. PER
LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS...PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING STARTING TO MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA WHILE NEW DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INTRUDING FRONT. A MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS OF THE REGION INDICATES LITTLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY AT OR LESS THAN
500J/KG. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THIS IMPROVED A TAD THIS AFTERNOON
AS SOME BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER WILL LEAD TO MINOR DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85. THUS...THE FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FEATURES CAT POPS ALONG THE
MTNS...TAPERING TO LIKELY LEVELS EAST WITH A MENTION OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED TS FOR THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT EAST OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL YIELD NORTHERLY VEERING FLOW AS A HYBRID
DAMMING EVENT TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF. H85 FLOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUALLY VEER WITH TIME AS THE H85 RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE LEADING TO INCREASED UPGLIDE POTENTIAL ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING WEDGE. THUS...THE FCST FEATURES MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NC...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NC NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85...INCREASING
SOUTHWARD TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE LAKELANDS. TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH
MAX/MIN...WITH SOME MID/UPPER 30S FEATURED OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...A FOUR CORNERS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSOURI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
SWLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA)...AND INCREASE...DRAWING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH. DEEP MOISTURE WILL NEVER BE FAR AWAY. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL START A PUSH OF SHOWERS FROM OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...
NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO OVERRUN A SURFACE
COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...ALTHOUGH A FLY IN FORECAST IS THE
SURFACING TROFFING WHICH THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SEABOARD...OR LOW PRESSURE COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER...HAS SOME BACKING
FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL. THE GFS ESSENTIALLY TAKES THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION EAST. WE HAVE GIVEN MORE WEIGHT ON THE FORMER TWO
MODELS...BUT NOT FULL THROTTLE. AS A RESULT HIGHER CHANCES...TO
LOWER LIKELY POPS IN OUR EASTERN FA MONDAY. THESE NUMBERS MIGHT
HAVE TO BE RAISED...BUT WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION THE GFS AND ARE
WAITING TO SEE IF IT COMES ABOARD.
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION MONDAY WILL BE RAW.
AS THE OVERALL UPGLIDE...AND ANY ENERGY ALOFT SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY...
AND SURFACE TROFFING SHIFTS EAST...POPS GRADUALLY LOWER. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND AS THE WEDGE CONFIGURATION EASES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EST SATURDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE GUIDANCE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
WITH SOME CONTINUED MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES. SHORT WAVE RIDGING
MOVES IN EARLY IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER
THE UPPER MID WEST. THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAGS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY SETS UP
THU NITE BEFORE YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW PASSES BY WELL TO OUR NORTH
DRAGGING A SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS THE AREA FRI NITE INTO SAT. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ON WED BEFORE THE FIRST UPPER
LOW HELPS PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE THU TIME
FRAME. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE IN THE WAY OF SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT THAN PREV FCSTS. HOWEVER...THE QUICK MOVEMENT KEEPS THE SLY
FLOW FROM SIGNIFICANTLY TAPPING GULF OR ATLANTIC MOISTURE...BUT PW
VALUES ON FROM THE GEFS MEAN DO INCREASE TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY FCST WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT
WITH THE INCREASED WIND PROFILES...ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WOULD BEAR
WATCHING. AFTER FROPA...COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRI AND
SAT. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED...FALL TO NEAR NORMAL THU THEN BELOW
NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT. LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND AND COULD RESULT
IN FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR SAT NITE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE AS THE FCST CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHRA WITH PATCHES OF IFR CIGS WARRANT EXTRA LINES
IN THE TAF. INITIALIZED TAF WITH IFR CIGS AND SHRA BEFORE THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP SLIDES EAST LEADING TO REMOVAL OF SUCH WITHIN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. LATEST CAM GUID FAVORS ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
POSSIBLE TS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ACTUAL FRONTAL AXIS PUSHES
INTO THE PIEDMONT...THUS TAF FEATURES REINTRODUCTION OF SHRA AND
MVFR CIGS AT 00Z WITH NO TS MENTION AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BEYOND THAT
GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR WITH WINDS VEERED NORTHERLY AND GUSTY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE WITH SLIGHT TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS GIVEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR WHICH DOES SHOW POSSIBLE THUNDER
PRODUCING CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT...DID INCLUDE VCTS MENTION AT
KGSP/KGMU THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LEFT FROM ALL OTHER SITES AS
CONFIDENCE WAINS WITH TIME. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AT ALL SITES
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS MIXING DOWN BY BY MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER MOIST SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOW CLOUDS AGAIN SEEN OVER THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 98% HIGH 96% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE FRONT AND BRING CHILLY AND WET CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME MID WEEK DRYING IS
EXPECTED BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE NC HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME. PER
LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS...PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING STARTING TO MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA WHILE NEW DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INTRUDING FRONT. A MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS OF THE REGION INDICATES LITTLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY AT OR LESS THAN
500J/KG. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THIS IMPROVED A TAD THIS AFTERNOON
AS SOME BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER WILL LEAD TO MINOR DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85. THUS...THE FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FEATURES CAT POPS ALONG THE
MTNS...TAPERING TO LIKELY LEVELS EAST WITH A MENTION OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED TS FOR THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT EAST OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL YIELD NORTHERLY VEERING FLOW AS A HYBRID
DAMMING EVENT TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF. H85 FLOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUALLY VEER WITH TIME AS THE H85 RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE LEADING TO INCREASED UPGLIDE POTENTIAL ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING WEDGE. THUS...THE FCST FEATURES MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NC...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NC NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85...INCREASING
SOUTHWARD TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE LAKELANDS. TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH
MAX/MIN...WITH SOME MID/UPPER 30S FEATURED OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...A FOUR CORNERS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSOURI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
SWLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA)...AND INCREASE...DRAWING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH. DEEP MOISTURE WILL NEVER BE FAR AWAY. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL START A PUSH OF SHOWERS FROM OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...
NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO OVERRUN A SURFACE
COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...ALTHOUGH A FLY IN FORECAST IS THE
SURFACING TROFFING WHICH THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SEABOARD...OR LOW PRESSURE COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER...HAS SOME BACKING
FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL. THE GFS ESSENTIALLY TAKES THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION EAST. WE HAVE GIVEN MORE WEIGHT ON THE FORMER TWO
MODELS...BUT NOT FULL THROTTLE. AS A RESULT HIGHER CHANCES...TO
LOWER LIKELY POPS IN OUR EASTERN FA MONDAY. THESE NUMBERS MIGHT
HAVE TO BE RAISED...BUT WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION THE GFS AND ARE
WAITING TO SEE IF IT COMES ABOARD.
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION MONDAY WILL BE RAW.
AS THE OVERALL UPGLIDE...AND ANY ENERGY ALOFT SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY...
AND SURFACE TROFFING SHIFTS EAST...POPS GRADUALLY LOWER. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND AS THE WEDGE CONFIGURATION EASES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EST SATURDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE GUIDANCE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
WITH SOME CONTINUED MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES. SHORT WAVE RIDGING
MOVES IN EARLY IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER
THE UPPER MID WEST. THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAGS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY SETS UP
THU NITE BEFORE YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW PASSES BY WELL TO OUR NORTH
DRAGGING A SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS THE AREA FRI NITE INTO SAT. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ON WED BEFORE THE FIRST UPPER
LOW HELPS PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE THU TIME
FRAME. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE IN THE WAY OF SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT THAN PREV FCSTS. HOWEVER...THE QUICK MOVEMENT KEEPS THE SLY
FLOW FROM SIGNIFICANTLY TAPPING GULF OR ATLANTIC MOISTURE...BUT PW
VALUES ON FROM THE GEFS MEAN DO INCREASE TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY FCST WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT
WITH THE INCREASED WIND PROFILES...ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WOULD BEAR
WATCHING. AFTER FROPA...COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRI AND
SAT. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED...FALL TO NEAR NORMAL THU THEN BELOW
NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT. LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND AND COULD RESULT
IN FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR SAT NITE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE AS THE FCST CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHRA WITH PATCHES OF IFR CIGS WARRANT EXTRA LINES
IN THE TAF. INITIALIZED TAF WITH IFR CIGS AND SHRA BEFORE THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP SLIDES EAST LEADING TO REMOVAL OF SUCH WITHIN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. LATEST CAM GUID FAVORS ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
POSSIBLE TS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ACTUAL FRONTAL AXIS PUSHES
INTO THE PIEDMONT...THUS TAF FEATURES REINTRODUCTION OF SHRA AND
MVFR CIGS AT 00Z WITH NO TS MENTION AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BEYOND THAT
GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR WITH WINDS VEERED NORTHERLY AND GUSTY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE WITH SLIGHT TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS GIVEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR WHICH DOES SHOW POSSIBLE THUNDER
PRODUCING CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT...DID INCLUDE VCTS MENTION AT
KGSP/KGMU THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LEFT FROM ALL OTHER SITES AS
CONFIDENCE WAINS WITH TIME. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AT ALL SITES
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS MIXING DOWN BY BY MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER MOIST SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOW CLOUDS AGAIN SEEN OVER THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z
KCLT HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1252 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE FRONT AND BRING
CHILLY AND WET CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME
MID WEEK DRYING IS EXPECTED BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST SATURDAY...CONTINUING TO MONITOR PREFRONTAL PRECIP
EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST...WHILE THE PRIMARY FRONTAL AXIS
ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
ENHANCED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOW TERRAIN...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS INSTABILITY WILL BE AT A PREMIUM. THUS THINK
ANY THUNDER WILL BE MOSTLY ELEVATED...IF AT ALL.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED T/TD AND POPS ONCE AGAIN TO REFLECT LATEST
OBS/RADAR AND LEFT THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM UNCHANGED. FULL UPDATE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 245 AM...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIED TO THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. AS OF 7Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN TN. WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH PATCHES OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE
EXISTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT. THROUGH DAYBREAK...A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL PUSH NE ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR FROM
NE GA ACROSS THE UPSTATE. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE AROUND ONE INCH
BY SUNRISE. SHRAS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MTNS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST 80 TO 100 POPS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN WILL TREND POPS LOWER FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO HALF INCH UP TO THE
NC/SC LINE. AREAS ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD
SEE .3 TO .4 OF AN INCH.
LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
FOOTHILLS...REACHING THE CLT METRO AREA BETWEEN 15Z TO 17Z. I WILL
INDICATE SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH -SHRA AND A WINDOW OF
TSRA DURING FROPA. BY MID AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE
NNW AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 MPH...CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT AND CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL CHALLENGING ACROSS THE
MTNS TODAY. H85 CAA WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE MTNS BY 15Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURE WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS MAY
REMAIN STEADY IN THE LOW 60S...COOLING INTO THE 50S BY SUNSET. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF I-85 ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...SKY COVER WILL DECREASE AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
SOURCED FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ONGOING
H85 CAA WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS C ACROSS
THE MTNS. USING A BLEND OF MOS...LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOW 40S WITHIN
THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MTNS...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S NEAR HICKORY TO THE LOW 50S AROUND GREENWOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING FROM THE
OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
SOUTH OF THE REGION. A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN VERY DRY CONDITIONS NEAR INTERSTATE 40 AND
THE NRN TIER...BUT CONTINUED MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE WARRANTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE CONTINUED CLOUDS SOUTH.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST DOWNSTREAM OF A 500 MB LOW CENTER CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NE AND PHASE BACK IN
OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE NE HIGH CENTER BECOMES A BIT TRANSITORY WITH TIME...THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA SHOULD STILL BECOME FAIRLY ENTRENCHED IN
COLD AIR DAMMING. THIS WILL MEAN REASONABLY HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG
WITH CHILLY MAX TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MON AFTN. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAD...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION AT PRESENT. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE AROUND
ONE HALF INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS...SO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST SATURDAY...FORCING OVER THE GRADUALLY SHALLOWING
COLD WEDGE LAYER WILL DIMINISH MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...
LINGERING SFC TO 850 MB MOISTURE MAY PERMIT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
PERSIST AND CAD CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON WED. THE
500 MB LOW CENTER WILL LIFT NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MID SOUTH AND BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
COLD FROPA IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THE FAVORED PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
SHOULD BRING THE FROPA THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AND THUS LIMIT DAYTIME INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...THE FRONTAL BAND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAIRLY NARROW SINCE THE SYSTEM APPEARS TOO FAST
TO ALLOW FOR MUCH OF A SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE TAP. STILL...30 TO
40 KT SW 850 MB FLOW WILL MAKE FOR INTERESTING SHEAR PROFILES WITH
THE FROPA...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED MONITORING DESPITE THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE ERN SEABOARD...WITH A DRYING NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
AT LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO LATE WEEK BEFORE
COOLING OFF INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE AS THE FCST CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHRA WITH PATCHES OF IFR CIGS WARRANT EXTRA LINES
IN THE TAF. INITIALIZED TAF WITH IFR CIGS AND SHRA BEFORE THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP SLIDES EAST LEADING TO REMOVAL OF SUCH WITHIN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. LATEST CAM GUID FAVORS ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
POSSIBLE TS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ACTUAL FRONTAL AXIS PUSHES
INTO THE PIEDMONT...THUS TAF FEATURES REINTRODUCTION OF SHRA AND
MVFR CIGS AT 00Z WITH NO TS MENTION AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BEYOND THAT
GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR WITH WINDS VEERED NORTHERLY AND GUSTY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE WITH SLIGHT TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS GIVEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR WHICH DOES SHOW POSSIBLE THUNDER
PRODUCING CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT...DID INCLUDE VCTS MENTION AT
KGSP/KGMU THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LEFT FROM ALL OTHER SITES AS
CONFIDENCE WAINS WITH TIME. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AT ALL SITES
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS MIXING DOWN BY BY MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER MOIST SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOW CLOUDS AGAIN SEEN OVER THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 89% HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 92% HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 87% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1116 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
NAM AND RAP ARE SHOWING MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND CURRENT BATCH
EXITING SOUTHWEST MN. DO NOT SEE MORE THAN PATCHY MID LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM RIGHT NOW AND GFS LOOKS PRETTY TAME. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER PRETTY LOW AND ADJUST FOR AREA NEXT FEW HOURS IF
NEEDED...BUT RIGHT NOW FEEL CLOUDS WILL STAY MINIMAL. IN ANY EVENT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL TAKE FULL CONTROL BY LATE MORNING AND WE
WILL HAVE OUR SUNNY DAY. AT THAT TIME EVEN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
NIL SO SEE LITTLE RESTRICTION TO HEATING BY THE LOWERING MIDDAY SUN
ANGLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH 50 NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS PERHAPS AS
WARM AS THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. A MODEST BREEZE FROM
THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHWEST...THEN TO WEST BY THE END
OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD STAY PRETTY CLEAR DESPITE THE DECENTLY
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...AS MODELS SHOW IT STAYING PRETTY DRY AT
ALL LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL EARLY THEN LIKELY HOLD PRETTY
STEADY...MAYBE EVEN GO UP A BIT AT SOME PLACES DURING THE NIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY INCREASE AFTER A SLIGHT EARLY EVENING DROP. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
STILL LOOKS LIKE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIODS. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS QUITE
STRONG AND THIS HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. EVEN USING
SOME OF THE MORE DRIER DEW POINT VALUES AS SHOWN BY MOS...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE TOO MOIST FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THIS IS LIKELY
BECAUSE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACTUALLY RETURNS TODAY...AND MANY TIMES
THE SECOND DAY OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN DEW POINT VALUES
WHICH ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA. THAT SAID...THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE EITHER HIGH OR VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING DAYTIME HIGHS OVER
SUPERBLEND VALUES BY A SOLID CATEGORY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GIVEN
THE MIXED DEPTH. IN ADDITION...SUPERBLEND LOWS ARE LIKELY TOO COOL
CONSIDERING THE SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS AT NIGHT...AND CONTINUED TO
USE A LOT OF RAW MODEL VALUES INSTEAD OF MOS OR SUPERBLEND VALUES.
FURTHER OUT...INTERESTINGLY THE GFS IS NOW BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE MID WEEK UPPER LOW IN HOW IT EJECTS
THE CLOSED LOW NORTHEASTWARD. THE GEM GLOBAL...ALTHOUGH STILL
CUTTING THIS AREA OFF WITH A NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO CHANGE TO A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION OVERALL. AT
THIS TIME...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TRACK THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS
FURTHER NORTH THAN EITHER THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL. THEREFORE IT IS A
WARMER AND WETTER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD GIVE PRIMARILY A CHILLY
RAINFALL. THE GFS...BEING FURTHER SOUTH...WOULD BE MORE OF A RAIN TO
MIXED PRECIP EVENT AFFECTING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AT ANY RATE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT THIS
POINT IF THE GFS CONTINUES TO PLAY CATCH UP WITH THE ECMWF AS THE
DAYS PROGRESS...THUS THE INCREASE IN MID WEEK POPS AT THIS TIME AND
NOT GOING REAL COLD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR LLWS FROM ABOUT 89Z THROUGH
15Z AT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
448 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT
SOME CLOUDS TO COME INTO KAMA AND KDHT AROUND 07Z TO 10Z BUT NOT
EXPECTING THESE TO DROP CONDITIONS INTO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE UNDER
10KTS FOR ALL SITES UNTIL 15Z WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP AND
GUST TO 25 TO 30KTS.
BEAT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS
COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NAM 850 MB TEMPS 12Z TODAY AROUND 5
DEGREES CELSIUS AT AMARILLO OR 41 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WITH A MIN
TEMPS THIS MORNING OF 34 DEGREES. NAM 850 MB TEMP 12Z SUNDAY OF 4
DEGREES CELSIUS OR 39 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...WITH PROJECTED MIN TEMP
SUNDAY MORNING OF 32 DEGREES. DID HAVE SOME LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WHICH HELPED TO KEEP MIN TEMPS A BIT WARMER THIS
MORNING. CAVEAT WILL BE ANY POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER HRRR NOT FORECASTING ANY LOW CLOUDS OR ANY OTHER
CLOUDS BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z SUNDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. NAM AND GFS ALSO KEEPING
SKIES CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. PROVIDED THAT CLOUDS
DO NOT DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...EXPECTING MIN TEMPS SUNDAY
MORNING TO BE NEAR 32 DEGREES OR SO FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THEN FROM SHERMAN COUNTY SOUTH TO RANDALL
COUNTY WITH MAINLY 33 TO 36 DEGREES SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE.
THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALSO TEMPS TODAY SOME 3 TO 7
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH DEW POINT TEMPS
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE VERY SHALLOW AND SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO DROP.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
NEXT TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE
PANHANDLES...THEREFORE FEEL DRY BUT WINDY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GFS AND DOES CLIP THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
BRIEF WRAP AROUND PRECIP. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
COULD POSSIBLY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
FORECAST NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING SHARPLY
COLDER BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.
&&
$$
16/8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
353 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL
TROUGH/LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NE MX COAST AND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE HEADING INTO
TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL OCCUR. DESPITE
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SFC TO H85...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN STILL
REMAINS UNSEASONABLY MOIST /PWAT VALUES THIS MORNING WERE 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/. MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 300K LAYER IS PROG TO OCCUR ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...A MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN COAHUILA MX AND SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING. COMBINATION OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THE DPVA...AND A
H25 JET OVERHEAD...SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THE 18Z NAM...12ZGFS/GEM/TTU
WRF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS OUTPUT WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF AND SOME RUNS OF THE RAP BRING DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FARTHER SOUTH AND THUS KEEP THE CWA MAINLY DRY TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF THE LATTER OCCURRING...HAVE GONE WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN CWA RATHER THAN THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES. NE COUNTIES WILL HAVE LOWEST
POTENTIAL OF SEEING ADDITIONAL PRECIP WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL BE THE WEAKEST. ASIDE FROM PRECIP...STRATUS IS PROG TO
THICKEN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW PEAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM PORT ARANSAS TO SEADRIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD NOT FALL TOO MUCH FROM CURRENT TEMPS...THOUGH IF
ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THEN
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP MAY KNOCK
TEMPS BELOW CURRENTLY FORECAST MINS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN
CWA...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. DESPITE A RATHER POTENT
H5 S/W TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS AND A STRONGER H25 JET NOSING INTO
THE AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PROG TO BE MUCH DRIER TOMORROW AND
THUS ONLY EXPECTING CLOUD COVER FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING MAY TRY TO OCCUR BY LATE IN THE DAY SUN WITH
MAX TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER OR NOT ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT /ESPECIALLY NE
COUNTIES/ BEFORE LLVL MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE ECMWF/GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WL ENTER THE WEST COAST BY
MONDAY AND THE SWRN CONUS TUESDAY...THEN ACRS TEXAS/SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA. EXPECT
ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE DRG THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM. GFS DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS PWAT
VALUES OVER THE CWA/MSA TO INCREASE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MSTR/UPPER DYNAMICS/ SFC FRONT WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY. DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS THE FOREGOING UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ANTICIPATED AFTER FROPA OVER THE MSA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A COASTAL
TROUGH FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC PLACES THE
CWA/MSA NEAR THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. FURTHER...THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC)
INCREASES MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WL FCST ISOLD
SHOWER ACTIVITY (THE GFS DETERMINISTIC MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT
CIN/POSITIVE LI VALUES) FRIDAY/SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY OVER THE
CWA/MSA.
&&
.MARINE...STRONG TO VERY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREA BAYS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND NEAR/OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY SUN. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 61 70 58 75 66 / 30 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 57 68 50 73 61 / 20 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 57 66 57 74 65 / 50 20 10 10 10
ALICE 60 69 55 76 63 / 40 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 61 69 57 73 67 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 57 66 55 72 61 / 30 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 62 69 56 75 64 / 40 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 63 70 60 73 69 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
RH/79...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
246 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS
COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NAM 850 MB TEMPS 12Z TODAY AROUND 5
DEGREES CELSIUS AT AMARILLO OR 41 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WITH A MIN
TEMPS THIS MORNING OF 34 DEGREES. NAM 850 MB TEMP 12Z SUNDAY OF 4
DEGREES CELSIUS OR 39 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...WITH PROJECTED MIN TEMP
SUNDAY MORNING OF 32 DEGREES. DID HAVE SOME LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WHICH HELPED TO KEEP MIN TEMPS A BIT WARMER THIS
MORNING. CAVEAT WILL BE ANY POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER HRRR NOT FORECASTING ANY LOW CLOUDS OR ANY OTHER
CLOUDS BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z SUNDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. NAM AND GFS ALSO KEEPING
SKIES CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. PROVIDED THAT CLOUDS
DO NOT DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...EXPECTING MIN TEMPS SUNDAY
MORNING TO BE NEAR 32 DEGREES OR SO FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THEN FROM SHERMAN COUNTY SOUTH TO RANDALL
COUNTY WITH MAINLY 33 TO 36 DEGREES SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE.
THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALSO TEMPS TODAY SOME 3 TO 7
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH DEW POINT TEMPS
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE VERY SHALLOW AND SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO DROP.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
NEXT TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE
PANHANDLES...THEREFORE FEEL DRY BUT WINDY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GFS AND DOES CLIP THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
BRIEF WRAP AROUND PRECIP. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
COULD POSSIBLY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
FORECAST NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING SHARPLY
COLDER BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 33 57 39 68 46 / 0 0 5 5 5
BEAVER OK 32 61 40 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 32 57 34 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 37 59 42 70 48 / 0 0 5 5 0
BOYS RANCH TX 32 59 38 69 43 / 0 0 5 0 0
CANYON TX 31 58 38 68 46 / 0 0 5 5 0
CLARENDON TX 33 58 38 68 46 / 0 0 5 5 5
DALHART TX 30 58 36 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 33 59 38 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 30 57 37 68 43 / 0 0 5 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 33 60 43 66 48 / 0 0 0 5 5
PAMPA TX 34 57 41 67 47 / 0 0 5 5 0
SHAMROCK TX 35 60 41 67 48 / 0 0 5 5 0
WELLINGTON TX 36 61 42 68 48 / 0 0 5 5 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.
&&
$$
14/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1123 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/
SHORT TERM...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED UA TROUGH STRETCHED FROM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SW TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...IS
AIDING IN SENDING DOWN A COLD FRONT /AND THUS A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR/ NOTED MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS.
MODELS HINT AT THE FROPA CLEARING THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THUS SHIFTING SRLY SFC WINDS AROUND TO THE NE. BEFORE THIS
HAPPENS...IT IS NOTEWORTHY TO MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE LAST NIGHT...WERE PROPAGATING NE WITH TIME
PER 07Z RADAR ANALYSIS. THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY IS COURTESY OF AN
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKS TO THE UPSLOPE SFC REGIME AND A
BIT OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. MODELS SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS ACTIVITY
SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE FA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH THE IMPINGEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS FALLING TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
LATER ON THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES. THE NAM
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR EXHIBITS THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
FOG NEAR SUNRISE ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES. THIS COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE
GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S THERE/ BUT
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTN...THE 1030 MB SFC RIDGE DRIVING
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE A BIT OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY E-NE WIND SPEEDS /10-20 KTS/ BEFORE
RELAXING AOA SUNSET. IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE A CRISP FALL DAY
WITH THE USHERING IN OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS...AS TEMPS WILL ONLY
WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. IT IS STARTING TO SOUND LIKE AN OLD
HAT...BUT CHILLY TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR TONIGHT GIVEN THE SAME
CONDITIONS THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT MODEL
SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT AN INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN AND SWRN ZONES...WITH
THE NAM SHOWING RATHER LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NUDGING UP AGAINST THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS
POSSIBILITY...SO WILL ELECT TO KEEP WX GRIDS NIL ATTM...BUT WILL
BUMP POPS UP TO 9-10 PERCENT.
LONG TERM...
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
SERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN
COLORADO AND NRN NEW MEXICO LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL BE FORMING OVER THE WRN CONUS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE FCST PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THEN
NEWD TO THE WRN SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING...
DEEPENING RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT DOES SO. THIS LOW WILL PUSH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT QUICKLY EWD THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAIRLY RICH LOW LEVEL AIR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT SUGGESTIONS ARE THAT CAP WILL HOLD THIS FAR WEST
WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FCST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST ATTM...ALTHOUGH
MODEL BLEND REMAINS NEAR THE 15 PCT THRESHOLD ACROSS THE SERN
ZONES. THE MAIN AFFECT FROM THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WILL BE
GUSTY...AND POSSIBLY STRONG...WINDS. MAGNITUDE OF PROGGED HEIGHT
GRADIENT SUGGESTS WIND WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET IF THIS
SYSTEM IS ABLE TO SLOW DOWN BY SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. AT ITS CURRENT
PROJECTED PACE WEST TO NW WINDS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OR A
TOUCH BELOW LOOK QUITE POSSIBLE. WILL BUMP WIND SPEEDS ABOUT 5 KTS
ABOVE MODEL BLEND INITIALIZATION. FINALLY...RATHER BENIGN END TO
THE WEEK CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WITH WARM LOW
LEVEL AIR LOCKED OVER NRN MEXICO MOS TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
LOOK REASONABLE ATTM.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/99/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
340 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...THEN WILL WEDGE DOWN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES....WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...
RADAR HAS SHOWED A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
TODAY. BOUNDARY IS ALSO WELL DEFINED WITH A VERY SHARP DROP IN
SURFACE DEW POINTS. DEW POINT VALUES IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
HAD ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 40S. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE
MIDNIGHT WERE GENERALLY ONE HALF INCH OR LESS. THE FRONT WILL EXIT
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 00Z/7PM. A
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY THAT TIME BUT
CLEARING WILL TAKE LONGER. GUIDANCE HELD CLOUDS IN UNTIL AROUND
06Z/1AM...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN DANVILLE AND FARMVILLE.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE PREVAILING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE JUST
ALONG THE FRONT AND TONIGHT WITH SOME MODEST PRESSURE RISES.
BY 12Z/7AM SUNDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN INTO THE ZERO
TO +2 RANGE. CLOUDS AND WIND WILL LIMIT IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
FALLING TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
FOR LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE 40S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. EXPECTING A MORE TYPICALLY DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...
1032MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS HIGH CENTER WILL WEDGE SOUTH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL VARY
FROM THE MID 20S IN THE COLDER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE KEY FEATURES LIKE THE COASTAL LOW AND ITS LOCATIONS
AND MOISTURE. IN ANY CASE ...BELIEVE BY MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW IN
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO TRANSPORT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE MOISTURE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE EAST. AS THE COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ON TUESDAY...GRADUALLY TAPER POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER
THAN MONDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...
A FASTER MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. KEPT SCATTERED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
SUPPORTED BY GFS AND ECMWF. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND TRAVEL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY BE STRONG ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH
6HR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 5MB AND A 85H JET. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY WITH
VERY DRY AIR UNDER BREEZY/COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO LOWER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE US GOOD WEATHER NEXT SATURDAY WITH
SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 60 IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST FRIDAY...
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 03
UTC/10PM BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH TO THE EAST COAST BY 01 UTC/8PM...LEAVING BEHIND SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS AND DRYER AIR. RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 03 UTC/10PM.
WIDESPREAD VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR AND IFR WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING LOCALIZED
GUSTS AND A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION ALONG WITH IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS LATER ON INTO SUNDAY. MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION BUT ROUGHLY
FOLLOWED HRRR AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE. EVEN IF CLEARING IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AT KDAN...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 06Z/1AM SUNDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY DEVELOP INTO A STRATUS
LAYER OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
OUT OF KLWB AND KBLF.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.
THE COOL MOIST WEDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG. WEDNESDAY WAS THE
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1258 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY
PRODUCING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPERATURES WITH ITS
PASSAGE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDWEST WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...
SHOWERS TODAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TENTH OF AN
INCH ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER.
AS OF 400 AM EST...SURFACE FRONT WAS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WV. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH BLUEFIELD AND
LEWISBURG AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN THROUGH THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS
INCLUDING THE NEW RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 8A-10A...THEN SLIPPING EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MID-DAY...REACHING DANVILLE AROUND 4PM
BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL VA/NC PIEDMONT TOWARD SUNSET.
RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTED MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BE OCCURRING WELL SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN
TN...AND INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND NORTH GEORGIA. MODELS INDICATE
THIS MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/RAIN WITH TIME
AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH...THE EXPECTATION
IS FOR MORE RAIN TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE TIMING OF
FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL COINCIDE LATER THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NON-DIURNAL. THE WARMEST READINGS IN
OUR WV COUNTIES WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE TAKING A
TUMBLE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE (FROPA) WILL ALSO BRING FALLING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS INCLUDING THE NRV TOWARD
NOON...FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE
ROANOKE...LYNCHBURG...MARTINSVILLE AND MT AIRY AREAS EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON...THE TRANSITION REACHING DANVILLE IN THE 4-6PM TIME
FRAME. THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 10-15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP WITHIN
2 HOURS OF FROPA.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO TEST THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
VA/NC PIEDMONT WITH MAINLY 60S ELSEWHERE. WITH FROPA...
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY TUMBLE THROUGH THE 50S AND IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT READINGS MAY DIP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY SUNSET.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...READINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE 40S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EVEN THOUGH
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER UP THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
PACKETS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING BENEATH A BROAD EASTERN RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING FAIR BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...IT WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
MONDAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
WEDGE TO SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THEIR PLACEMENT OF
FEATURES. BELIEVE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO STEP THE POPS UP
TO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND SEE IF MODELS
CAN HASH OUT THEIR DIFFERENCES OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES. EVERYTHING
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS WE GO THROUGH
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WEDGE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WHICH
IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AND WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT WE CAN EXPECT
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 30S EAST TO MID 20S/AROUND 30 WEST BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. AS THE WEDGE BREAKS ON TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT
WITH MID 50S/AROUND 609 WEST AND LOWER 60S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EST FRIDAY...
A FASTER MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL TAKE SHAPE
TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK WITH THE WEDGE GIVING WAY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHARP BUT QUICK HITTER TYPE 5H TROF/COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATER
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED
SO MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY EVENING FOR A COUPLE
SHOWER BANDS BEFORE MUCH DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR SWINGS IN ON
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
COULD BRIEFLY BE STRONG ENOUGH BOTH ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS BUT IFFY GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF MUCH COLD
AIR. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WITH VERY DRY AIR UNDER BREEZY/COOLER
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY BUT STILL HIGHS 50S WEST TO 60S EAST GIVEN
THE QUICK EXODUS OF THE COOL AIR ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST FRIDAY...
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 03
UTC/10PM BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH TO THE EAST COAST BY 01 UTC/8PM...LEAVING BEHIND SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS AND DRYER AIR. RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 03 UTC/10PM.
WIDESPREAD VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR AND IFR WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING LOCALIZED
GUSTS AND A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION ALONG WITH IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS LATER ON INTO SUNDAY. MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION BUT ROUGHLY
FOLLOWED HRRR AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE. EVEN IF CLEARING IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AT KDAN...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 06Z/1AM SUNDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY DEVELOP INTO A STRATUS
LAYER OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
OUT OF KLWB AND KBLF.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.
THE COOL MOIST WEDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG. WEDNESDAY WAS THE
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/PM